Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

1999-12-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

1999-01-01

Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

A Person-Centered Approach to Financial Capacity Assessment: Preliminary Development of a New Rating Scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Lichtenberg, Peter A; Stoltman, Jonathan; Ficker, Lisa J; Iris, Madelyn; Mast, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Financial exploitation and financial capacity issues often overlap when a gerontologist assesses whether an older adult's financial decision is an autonomous, capable choice. Our goal is to describe a new conceptual model for assessing financial decisions using principles of person-centered approaches and to introduce a new instrument, the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS). We created a conceptual model, convened meetings of experts from various disciplines to critique the model and provide input on content and structure, and select final items. We then videotaped administration of the LFDRS to five older adults and had 10 experts provide independent ratings. The LFDRS demonstrated good to excellent inter-rater agreement. The LFDRS is a new tool that allows gerontologists to systematically gather information about a specific financial decision and the decisional abilities in question.

Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

Science.gov (United States)

Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

2014-12-01

Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

Concepts of mental capacity for patients requesting assisted suicide: a qualitative analysis of expert evidence presented to the Commission on Assisted Dying.

Science.gov (United States)

Price, Annabel; McCormack, Ruaidhri; Wiseman, Theresa; Hotopf, Matthew

2014-04-22

In May 2013 a new Assisted Dying Bill was tabled in the House of Lords and is currently scheduled for a second reading in May 2014. The Bill was informed by the report of the Commission on Assisted Dying which itself was informed by evidence presented by invited experts.This study aims to explore how the experts presenting evidence to the Commission on Assisted Dying conceptualised mental capacity for patients requesting assisted suicide and examine these concepts particularly in relation to the principles of the Mental Capacity Act 2005. This study was a secondary qualitative analysis of 36 transcripts of oral evidence and 12 pieces of written evidence submitted by invited experts to the Commission on Assisted Dying using a framework approach. There was agreement on the importance of mental capacity as a central safeguard in proposed assisted dying legislation. Concepts of mental capacity, however, were inconsistent. There was a tendency towards a conceptual and clinical shift toward a presumption of incapacity. This appeared to be based on the belief that assisted suicide should only be open to those with a high degree of mental capacity to make the decision.The 'boundaries' around the definition of mental capacity appeared to be on a continuum between a circumscribed legal 'cognitive' definition of capacity (in which most applicants would be found to have capacity unless significantly cognitively impaired) and a more inclusive definition which would take into account wider concepts such as autonomy, rationality, voluntariness and decision specific factors such as motivation for decision making. Ideas presented to the Commission on Assisted Dying about mental capacity as it relates to assisted suicide were inconsistent and in a number of cases at variance with the principles of the Mental Capacity Act 2005. Further work needs to be done to establish a consensus as to what constitutes capacity for this decision and whether current legal frameworks are able to

How does the medical graduates' self-assessment of their clinical competency differ from experts' assessment?

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-01

Background The assessment of the performance of medical school graduates during their first postgraduate years provides an early indicator of the quality of the undergraduate curriculum and educational process. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical competency of medical graduates, as perceived by the graduates themselves and by the experts. Methods This is a hospital based cross-sectional study. It covered 105 medical graduates and 63 experts selected by convenient sampling method. A self-administered questionnaire covering the different areas of clinical competency constructed on a five-point Likert scale was used for data collection. Data processing and analysis were performed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) 16.0. The mean, frequency distribution, and percentage of the variables were calculated. A non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test was applied to verify whether the graduates' and experts' assessments were influenced by the graduates' variables such as age, gender, experience, type of hospital, specialty and location of work at a (p ≤ 0.05) level of significance. Results The overall mean scores for experts' and graduates' assessments were 3.40 and 3.63, respectively (p= 0.035). Almost 87% of the graduates perceived their competency as good and very good in comparison with only 67.7% by experts. Female and male graduates who rated themselves as very good were 33.8% and 25% respectively. More than 19% of the graduates in the age group > 30 years perceived their clinical competency as inadequate in contrast with only 6.2% of the graduates in the youngest age group. Experts rated 40% of the female graduates as inadequate versus 20% of males, (p= 0.04). More than 40% of the graduates in younger age group were rated by experts as inadequate, versus 9.7% of the higher age group >30 years (p = 0.03). Conclusion There was a wide discrepancy between the graduates' self-assessment and experts' assessment, particularly in the level

Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amann, F.; Vogelhuber, M.

2015-11-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature

Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amann, F. [Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETHZ, Zürich (Switzerland); Vogelhuber, M. [Dr. von Moos AG, Geotechnisches Büro, Zürich (Switzerland)

2015-11-15

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature.

Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

Science.gov (United States)

Michaud, Pierre-André; Blum, Robert Wm; Benaroyo, Lazare; Zermatten, Jean; Baltag, Valentina

2015-10-01

The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessment and management of agitation in psychiatry: Expert consensus.

Science.gov (United States)

Garriga, Marina; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kasper, Siegfried; Zeller, Scott L; Allen, Michael H; Vázquez, Gustavo; Baldaçara, Leonardo; San, Luis; McAllister-Williams, R Hamish; Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Courtet, Philippe; Naber, Dieter; Chan, Esther W; Fagiolini, Andrea; Möller, Hans Jürgen; Grunze, Heinz; Llorca, Pierre Michel; Jaffe, Richard L; Yatham, Lakshmi N; Hidalgo-Mazzei, Diego; Passamar, Marc; Messer, Thomas; Bernardo, Miquel; Vieta, Eduard

2016-01-01

Psychomotor agitation is associated with different psychiatric conditions and represents an important issue in psychiatry. Current recommendations on agitation in psychiatry are not univocal. Actually, an improper assessment and management may result in unnecessary coercive or sedative treatments. A thorough and balanced review plus an expert consensus can guide assessment and treatment decisions. An expert task force iteratively developed consensus using the Delphi method. Initial survey items were based on systematic review of the literature. Subsequent surveys included new, re-worded or re-rated items. Out of 2175 papers assessing psychomotor agitation, 124 were included in the review. Each component was assigned a level of evidence. Integrating the evidence and the experience of the task force members, a consensus was reached on 22 statements on this topic. Recommendations on the assessment of agitation emphasise the importance of identifying any possible medical cause. For its management, experts agreed in considering verbal de-escalation and environmental modification techniques as first choice, considering physical restraint as a last resort strategy. Regarding pharmacological treatment, the "ideal" medication should calm without over-sedate. Generally, oral or inhaled formulations should be preferred over i.m. routes in mildly agitated patients. Intravenous treatments should be avoided.

Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

[Essential aspects of ophthalmological expert assessment in private accident insurance].

Science.gov (United States)

Tost, F

2014-06-01

Commissions for an expert assessment place basically high demands on commissioned eye specialists because this activity differs from the normal routine field of work. In addition to assessing objective symptoms and subjective symptomatics in a special analytical manner, eye specialists are expected to have knowledge of basic legal terminology, such as proximate cause, evidence and evidential value. Only under these prerequisites can an ophthalmologist fulfill the function of an expert with a high level of quality and adequately adjust the special medical ophthalmological expertise to the requirements of the predominantly legally based clients commissioning the report and oriented to the appropriate valid legal norms. Particularly common difficulties associated with making an ophthalmological expert report for private accident insurance, e.g. determination of the reduction in functional quality, consideration of partial causality and assessment of diplopia are discussed.

Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

2018-01-01

The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

Science.gov (United States)

Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

2015-09-01

The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

Science.gov (United States)

Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

2016-01-01

External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

[The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

2015-03-01

To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Herzog-Evans, Martine

2016-01-01

Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

1990-05-01

This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

Science.gov (United States)

Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

2017-12-15

The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

Science.gov (United States)

Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

2017-10-01

The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

Application of fuzzy expert system on LILW performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lemos, F.L. de; Sullivan, T.

2002-01-01

A complete LILW repository performance assessment requires the involvement between several experts in many fields of science. Many sources of uncertainties arise due to complexity of interaction of environmental parameters, lack of data and ignorance, this makes predictive analysis and interpretation difficult. This difficulty in understanding the impact of the ambiguities is even higher when it comes to public and decision makers involvement. Traditional methods of data analysis, while having strong mathematical basis, many times are not adequate to deal with ambiguous data. These ambiguities can be an obstacle to make the results easier to understand and defensible. A methodology of decision making, based on fuzzy logic, can help the interaction between experts, decision makers and the public. This method is the basis of an expert system which can help the analysis of very complex and ambiguous processes. (author)

Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Littleboy, Anna; Hodgkinson, David

2001-01-01

Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development

Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Littleboy, Anna [United Kingdom Nirex Ltd., Harwell (United Kingdom); Hodgkinson, David [Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

2001-07-01

Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development.

Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

1995-02-01

Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

2000-09-01

Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2000-09-01

Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

2007-01-01

Uncertainties in conventional quantitative risk assessment typically relate to values of parameters in risk models. For many environmental contaminants, there is a lack of sufficient information about multiple components of the risk assessment framework. In such cases, the use of default assumptions and extrapolations to fill in the data gaps is a common practice. Nanoparticle risks, however, pose a new form of risk assessment challenge. Besides a lack of data, there is deep scientific uncertainty regarding every aspect of the risk assessment framework: (a) particle characteristics that may affect toxicity; (b) their fate and transport through the environment; (c) the routes of exposure and the metrics by which exposure ought to be measured; (d) the mechanisms of translocation to different parts of the body; and (e) the mechanisms of toxicity and disease. In each of these areas, there are multiple and competing models and hypotheses. These are not merely parametric uncertainties but uncertainties about the choice of the causal mechanisms themselves and the proper model variables to be used, i.e., structural uncertainties. While these uncertainties exist for PM2.5 as well, risk assessment for PM2.5 has avoided dealing with these issues because of a plethora of epidemiological studies. However, such studies don't exist for the case of nanoparticles. Even if such studies are done in the future, they will be very specific to a particular type of engineered nanoparticle and not generalizable to other nanoparticles. Therefore, risk assessment for nanoparticles will have to deal with the various uncertainties that were avoided in the case of PM2.5. Consequently, uncertainties in estimating risks due to nanoparticle exposures may be characterized as 'extreme'. This paper proposes a methodology by which risk analysts can cope with such extreme uncertainty. One way to make these problems analytically tractable is to use expert judgment approaches to study the degree of

A capacity assessment towards more resilient societies

Science.gov (United States)

Kuhlicke, C.; Steinführer, A.

2012-04-01

Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. It is from this typology the presentation will develop two kinds of operational social capacity audits; one for communities and one for organisations. These assessments aim to identify appropriate measures and strategies regarding how to enhance, develop and build different kinds of capacities. By using these assessments participants will be able to identify strong capacities and can refer to the recommendations for tips on how to improve capacities identified as weak. That way deficits and outcomes are defined by those who are most likely to be affected by a future hazard event and most likely to be implementing improvements towards resilience.

Community capacity to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence: a survey of Ontario's HIV/AIDS sector

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rourke Sean B

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based organizations (CBOs are important stakeholders in health systems and are increasingly called upon to use research evidence to inform their advocacy, program planning, and service delivery. To better support CBOs to find and use research evidence, we sought to assess the capacity of CBOs in the HIV/AIDS sector to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence in their work. Methods We invited executive directors of HIV/AIDS CBOs in Ontario, Canada (n = 51 to complete the Canadian Health Services Research Foundation's "Is Research Working for You?" survey. Findings Based on responses from 25 organizations that collectively provide services to approximately 32,000 clients per year with 290 full-time equivalent staff, we found organizational capacity to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence to be low. CBO strengths include supporting a culture that rewards flexibility and quality improvement, exchanging information within their organization, and ensuring that their decision-making processes have a place for research. However, CBO Executive Directors indicated that they lacked the skills, time, resources, incentives, and links with experts to acquire research, assess its quality and reliability, and summarize it in a user-friendly way. Conclusion Given the limited capacity to find and use research evidence, we recommend a capacity-building strategy for HIV/AIDS CBOs that focuses on providing the tools, resources, and skills needed to more consistently acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence. Such a strategy may be appropriate in other sectors and jurisdictions as well given that CBO Executive Directors in the HIV/AIDS sector in Ontario report low capacity despite being in the enviable position of having stable government infrastructure in place to support them, benefiting from long-standing investment in capacity building, and being part of an active provincial network. CBOs in other

Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

2006-01-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Polido, Alexandra; João, Elsa; Ramos, Tomás B.

2016-01-01

Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

Methodological approaches to assessing of country’s financial capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.Yu. Polchanov

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This research is devoted to the theoretical basis of country’s financial capacity assessment, its specificities and algorithm. The aim of the investigation is the generalization of methodological approaches to evaluating country’s financial capacity. The author determines that the assessment involves preparatory, analytical, and final stages. The special attention is paid to the information based on the analysis, demands on it, impact of changes in methodology, dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The establishment of the united analytical center for assessment of financial capacity of the state for post-conflict recovery is proposed. The results of the critical review of the publications in this field have helped to improve the classification of country’s financial capacity assessment methods by providing some new attributes such as the focus of the evaluation and type of intelligence. The problem of using unlicensed software to assess the financial capacity of the state and the associated risk have not been left without attention.

Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

2013-12-01

Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

Capacities for the Risk Assessment of GMOs: Challenges to Build Sustainable Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Danilo Fernández Ríos

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The need for functional risk assessment bodies in general, and in the biosafety field in particular, demands continued efforts and commitment from regulatory agencies, if results that are sustainable in time are to be achieved. The lack of formal processes that ensure continuity in the application of state of the art scientific criteria, the high rotation in some cases or the lack of experienced professionals, in others, is a challenge to be addressed. Capacity building initiatives with different approaches and degrees of success have been implemented in many countries over the years, supported by diverse governmental and non-governmental organizations. This document summarizes some capacity building experiences in developing countries and concludes that risk assessors taking ownership and regulatory authorities fully committed to developing and retaining highly qualified bodies are a sine qua non to achieve sustainable systems. To this end, it is essential to implement “in-house” continuing education mechanisms supported by external experts and organizations, and inter-institutional cooperation. It has to be noted that these recommendations could only be realized if policy makers understand and appreciate the value of professional, independent regulatory bodies.

Capacities for the Risk Assessment of GMOs: Challenges to Build Sustainable Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández Ríos, Danilo; Rubinstein, Clara; Vicién, Carmen

2018-01-01

The need for functional risk assessment bodies in general, and in the biosafety field in particular, demands continued efforts and commitment from regulatory agencies, if results that are sustainable in time are to be achieved. The lack of formal processes that ensure continuity in the application of state of the art scientific criteria, the high rotation in some cases or the lack of experienced professionals, in others, is a challenge to be addressed. Capacity building initiatives with different approaches and degrees of success have been implemented in many countries over the years, supported by diverse governmental and non-governmental organizations. This document summarizes some capacity building experiences in developing countries and concludes that risk assessors taking ownership and regulatory authorities fully committed to developing and retaining highly qualified bodies are a sine qua non to achieve sustainable systems. To this end, it is essential to implement "in-house" continuing education mechanisms supported by external experts and organizations, and inter-institutional cooperation. It has to be noted that these recommendations could only be realized if policy makers understand and appreciate the value of professional, independent regulatory bodies.

Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fine, T.L.

1980-04-01

This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Marson, Daniel

2016-09-01

The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

Science.gov (United States)

Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

2013-03-01

Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

Assessment of policy makers' individual and organizational capacity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2017-09-03

Sep 3, 2017 ... An evidence to policy self-assessment questionnaire was used to assess the capacity of forty. MNCH policy ... search, lack of actionable messages in research reports, and limited ... of research evidence is but one factor influencing all stag- es of what ... However, in order to design an effective capacity en-.

The objective assessment of experts' and novices' suturing skills using an image analysis program.

Science.gov (United States)

Frischknecht, Adam C; Kasten, Steven J; Hamstra, Stanley J; Perkins, Noel C; Gillespie, R Brent; Armstrong, Thomas J; Minter, Rebecca M

2013-02-01

To objectively assess suturing performance using an image analysis program and to provide validity evidence for this assessment method by comparing experts' and novices' performance. In 2009, the authors used an image analysis program to extract objective variables from digital images of suturing end products obtained during a previous study involving third-year medical students (novices) and surgical faculty and residents (experts). Variables included number of stitches, stitch length, total bite size, travel, stitch orientation, total bite-size-to-travel ratio, and symmetry across the incision ratio. The authors compared all variables between groups to detect significant differences and two variables (total bite-size-to-travel ratio and symmetry across the incision ratio) to ideal values. Five experts and 15 novices participated. Experts' and novices' performances differed significantly (P 0.8) for total bite size (P = .009, d = 1.5), travel (P = .045, d = 1.1), total bite-size-to-travel ratio (P algorithm can extract variables from digital images of a running suture and rapidly provide quantitative summative assessment feedback. The significant differences found between groups confirm that this system can discriminate between skill levels. This image analysis program represents a viable training tool for objectively assessing trainees' suturing, a foundational skill for many medical specialties.

Assessment of capacity-building activities for forest measurement, reporting, and verification, 2011–15

Science.gov (United States)

Peneva-Reed, Elitsa I.; Romijn, J. Erika

2018-05-31

publication argued that plausible association, although not a precise measurement of cause and effect, was a realistic tool. Our review of the available literature on this subject did not find another similar assessment to assess capacity-building activities for supporting the countries in building MRV system for REDD+.Four countries from the main forested regions of Africa, the Americas, and Asia were chosen as subjects for this report based on the length of time SilvaCarbon and other providers have provided capacity-building activities toward MRV system for REDD+: Colombia (the Americas), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC; Africa), Peru (the Americas), and the Republic of the Philippines (referred to as “the Philippines” hereafter; Asia).Several providers were contacted for information to include in this report, but, because of various constraints, only SilvaCarbon, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) participated in this study. These three providers supported various targeted capacity-building activities through-out Africa, the Americas, and Asia, including the following: technical workshops at national and regional levels (referred to as “workshops” hereafter), hands on training, study tours, technical details by experts, technical consultation between providers and recipients, sponsorship for travel, organizing network meetings, developing sampling protocols, assessing deforestation and degradation drivers, estimating carbon stock and flow, designing monitoring systems for multiple uses, promoting public-private partnerships to scale up investments on MRV system for REDD+, and assisting with the design of national forest monitoring systems.Their activities were planned in coordination with key partners in each country and region and with the support and assistance of other providers. Note that several other organizations and institutions assisted the providers to deliver capacity

Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Polido, Alexandra, E-mail: a.polido@campus.fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal); João, Elsa, E-mail: elsa.joao@strath.ac.uk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Level 5, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, Scotland (United Kingdom); Ramos, Tomás B., E-mail: tabr@fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal)

2016-04-15

Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

Criterion III: Maintenance of rangeland productive capacity [Chapter 4

Science.gov (United States)

G. R. Evans; R. A. Washmgton-Allen; R. D. Child; J. E. Mitchell; B. R. Bobowskl; R. V. Loper; B. H. Allen-Diaz; D. W. Thompson; G. R. Welling; T. B. Reuwsaat

2010-01-01

Maintenance of rangeland productive capacity is one of five criteria established by the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable (SRR) to monitor and assess rangeland sustainable management. Within this criterion, six indicators were developed through the Delphi Process and the expert opinions of academicians, rangeland scientists, rangeland management agency personnel, non-...

Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts

OpenAIRE

Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

2016-01-01

Background Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. Methods This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images...

Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1990-01-01

Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

Assessing Capacity Value of Wind Power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frew, Bethany A.

2017-04-18

This presentation provides a high-level overview of assessing capacity value of wind power, including Impacts of multiple-year data sets, impacts of transmission assumptions, and future research needs.

Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

2013-01-01

Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerber, Anne; Thevoz, Anne-Laure; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie

2015-02-01

Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further

Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.

1988-01-01

An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thang, B.; Sluis - Thiescheffer, R.J.W.; Bekker, M.M.; Eggen, J.H.; Vermeeren, A.P.O.S.; Ridder, de H.

2008-01-01

LOBBI Netherlands Consortium Subscribe (Full Service) Register (Limited Service, Free) Login Search: The ACM Digital Library The Guide Feedback Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment Full text Pdf (3.04 MB) Source Interaction Design and Children archive

[Preliminary study on civil capacity rating scale for mental disabled patients].

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Qin-Ting; Pang, Yan-Xia; Cai, Wei-Xiong; Tang, Tao; Huang, Fu-Yin

2010-10-01

To create civil capacity rating scale for mentally disabled patients, and explore its feasibility during the forensic psychiatric expertise. The civil capacity-related items were determined after discussion and consultation. The civil capacity rating scale for mentally disabled patients was established and the manual was created according to the logistic sequence of the assessment. The rating scale was used during the civil assessment in four institutes. There were 14 items in civil capacity rating scale for mentally disabled patients. Two hundred and two subjects were recruited and divided into three groups according to the experts' opinion on their civil capacities: full civil capacity, partial civil capacity and no civil capacity. The mean score of the three groups were 2.32 +/- 2.45, 11.62 +/- 4.01 and 25.02 +/- 3.90, respectively, and there was statistical differences among the groups. The Cronbach alpha of the rating scale was 0.9724, and during the split-reliability test, the two-splited part of the rating scale were highly correlated (r = 0.9729, P = 0.000). The Spearman correlative coefficient between each item and the score of the rating scale was from 0.643 to 0.882 (P = 0.000). There was good correlation between the conclusion according to the rating scale and the experts' opinion (kappa = 0.841, P = 0.000). When the discriminate analysis was used, 7 items were included into the discrimination equation, and 92.6% subjects were identified as the correct groups using the equation. There is satisfied reliability and validity on civil capacity rating scale for mentally disabled patients. The rating scale can be used as effective tools to grade their civil capacity during the forensic expertise.

Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clare eMcCormack

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1988-01-01

The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been modified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) 3 of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. 5 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

Institutional capacity for health systems research in East and Central African schools of public health: experiences with a capacity assessment tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Jessani, Nasreen; Lewy, Daniela; Ekirapa-Kiracho, Elizabeth; Bennett, Sara

2014-06-02

Despite significant investments in health systems research (HSR) capacity development, there is a dearth of information regarding how to assess HSR capacity. An alliance of schools of public health (SPHs) in East and Central Africa developed a tool for the self-assessment of HSR capacity with the aim of producing institutional capacity development plans. Between June and November 2011, seven SPHs across the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda implemented this co-created tool. The objectives of the institutional assessments were to assess existing capacities for HSR and to develop capacity development plans to address prioritized gaps. A mixed-method approach was employed consisting of document analysis, self-assessment questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and institutional dialogues aimed at capturing individual perceptions of institutional leadership, collective HSR skills, knowledge translation, and faculty incentives to engage in HSR. Implementation strategies for the capacity assessment varied across the SPHs. This paper reports findings from semi-structured interviews with focal persons from each SPH, to reflect on the process used at each SPH to execute the institutional assessments as well as the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the assessment process. The assessment tool was robust enough to be utilized in its entirety across all seven SPHs resulting in a thorough HSR capacity assessment and a capacity development plan for each SPH. Successful implementation of the capacity assessment exercises depended on four factors: (i) support from senior leadership and collaborators, (ii) a common understanding of HSR, (iii) adequate human and financial resources for the exercise, and (iv) availability of data. Methods of extracting information from the results of the assessments, however, were tailored to the unique objectives of each SPH. This institutional HSR capacity assessment tool and the process for its utilization

Expert assessments and content analysis of crew communication during ISS missions

Science.gov (United States)

Yusupova, Anna

During the last seven years, we have analyzed the communication patterns between ISS crewmembers and mission control personnel and identified a number of different communication styles between these two groups (Gushin et al, 2005). In this paper, we will report on an external validity check we conducted that compares our findings with those of another study using the same research material. For many years the group of psychologists at the Medical Center of Space Flight Control (TCUMOKO) at the Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) in Moscow has been analyzing audio communication sessions of Russian space crews with the ground-based Mission Control during long-duration spaceflight conditions. We compared week by week texts of the standard weekly monitoring reports made by the TsUP psychological group and audiocommunication of space crews with mission control centers. Expert assessments of the crewmembers' psychological state are made by IBMP psychoneurologists on the basis of daily schedule fulfillment, video and audio materials, and psychophysiological data from board. The second approach was based on the crew-ground communication analysis. For both population of messages we applied two corresponding schemas of content analysis. All statements made in communication sessions and weekly reports were divided into three groups in terms of their communication function (Lomov, 1981): 1) informative function (e.g., demands for information, requests, professional slang); 2) socio-regulatory function (e.g., rational consent or discord, operational complaint, refusal to cooperate); and 3) affective (emotional) function (e.g., encouragement, sympathy, emotional consent or discord). Number of statements of the audiocommunication sessions correlated with corresponding functions (informative, regulatory, affective) of communication in weekly monitioring reports made by experts. Crewmembers verbal behavior expresses its psycho-emotional state which is formulated by expert

Assessing European capacity for geological storage of carbon dioxide-the EU GeoCapacity project

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vangkilde-Pedersen, T.; Anthonsen, K.L.; Smith, N.; Kirk, K.; Neele, F.; Meer, B. van der; Le Gallo, Y. le; Bossie-Codreanu, D.; Wojcicki, A.; Nindre, Y.-M. le; Hendriks, C.; Dalhoff, F.; Peter Christensen, N.

2009-01-01

The focus of the GeoCapacity project is GIS mapping of CO2 point sources, infrastructure and geological storage in Europe. The main objective is to assess the European capacity for geological storage of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, oil and gas structures and coal beds. Other priorities are further

Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alenin P.N.

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Kramer, A.; Bottema, B.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

2012-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. Methods: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Bottema, B.; Kramer, A.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. METHODS: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

In the public interest: assessing expert and stakeholder influence in public deliberation about biobanks.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLean, Samantha; Burgess, Michael M

2010-07-01

Providing technical and experiential information without overwhelming participants' perspectives presents a major challenge to public involvement in policy decisions. This article reports the design and analysis of a case study on incorporating expert and stakeholder knowledge without including them as deliberators, while supporting deliberative participants' ability to introduce and critically assess different perspectives. Analysis of audio-recorded deliberations illustrates how expert and stakeholder knowledge was cited, criticized and incorporated into deliberations. In conclusion, separating experts and stakeholders from deliberations may be an important prima facie principle when the goal is to enhance citizen representation on technical issues and related policy.

The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagemans, J.H.M.

2011-01-01

In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

Importance assessment of decision attributes: A qualitative study comparing experts and laypersons

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Heerkens, Johannes M.G.; Norde, Christiaan; van der Heijden, Beatrice

2011-01-01

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate differences between experts and laypersons concerning the way they assess the importance of each of the various decision attributes (cost, risk, feasibility) taken into consideration during decision processes in an organizational setting.

The development and pilot testing of a rapid assessment tool to improve local public health system capacity in Australia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lin Vivian

2009-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background To operate effectively the public health system requires infrastructure and the capacity to act. Public health's ability to attract funding for infrastructure and capacity development would be enhanced if it was able to demonstrate what level of capacity was required to ensure a high performing system. Australia's public health activities are undertaken within a complex organizational framework that involves three levels of government and a diverse range of other organizations. The question of appropriate levels of infrastructure and capacity is critical at each level. Comparatively little is known about infrastructure and capacity at the local level. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers in two Australian states with different frameworks for health administration. They were asked to reflect on the critical components of infrastructure and capacity required at the local level. The interviews were analyzed to identify the major themes. Workshops with public health experts explored this data further. The information generated was used to develop a tool, designed to be used by groups of organizations within discrete geographical locations to assess local public health capacity. Results Local actors in these two different systems pointed to similar areas for inclusion for the development of an instrument to map public health capacity at the local level. The tool asks respondents to consider resources, programs and the cultural environment within their organization. It also asks about the policy environment - recognizing that the broader environment within which organizations operate impacts on their capacity to act. Pilot testing of the tool pointed to some of the challenges involved in such an exercise, particularly if the tool were to be adopted as policy. Conclusion This research indicates that it is possible to develop a tool for the systematic assessment of public health capacity at the local level

The development and pilot testing of a rapid assessment tool to improve local public health system capacity in Australia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bagley, Prue; Lin, Vivian

2009-11-15

To operate effectively the public health system requires infrastructure and the capacity to act. Public health's ability to attract funding for infrastructure and capacity development would be enhanced if it was able to demonstrate what level of capacity was required to ensure a high performing system. Australia's public health activities are undertaken within a complex organizational framework that involves three levels of government and a diverse range of other organizations. The question of appropriate levels of infrastructure and capacity is critical at each level. Comparatively little is known about infrastructure and capacity at the local level. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers in two Australian states with different frameworks for health administration. They were asked to reflect on the critical components of infrastructure and capacity required at the local level. The interviews were analyzed to identify the major themes. Workshops with public health experts explored this data further. The information generated was used to develop a tool, designed to be used by groups of organizations within discrete geographical locations to assess local public health capacity. Local actors in these two different systems pointed to similar areas for inclusion for the development of an instrument to map public health capacity at the local level. The tool asks respondents to consider resources, programs and the cultural environment within their organization. It also asks about the policy environment - recognizing that the broader environment within which organizations operate impacts on their capacity to act. Pilot testing of the tool pointed to some of the challenges involved in such an exercise, particularly if the tool were to be adopted as policy. This research indicates that it is possible to develop a tool for the systematic assessment of public health capacity at the local level. Piloting the tool revealed some concerns amongst participants

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies via social indicators: Results of a survey among European energy experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallego Carrera, Diana; Mack, Alexander

2010-01-01

Sustainability assessment of energy technologies oftentimes fails to account for social repercussions and long-term negative effects and benefits of energy systems. As part of the NEEDS project, an expert-based set of social indicators was developed and verified by the European stakeholders with the objective of contributing in the development of social indicators for the assessment of societal effects of energy systems. For this purpose, scientific experts from four sample countries France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland were interviewed to assess 16 different energy systems on a specific stakeholder reviewed indicator set. The indicator set covers the four main criteria: 'security and reliability of energy provision; 'political stability and legitimacy'; 'social and individual risks' and 'quality of life'. This article will review the process of indicator development and assessment and highlight results for today's most prominent and future energy technologies and some likely to make an impact in the future. Expert judgments varied considerably between countries and energy systems, with the exception of renewable technologies, which were overall positively assessed on almost all evaluation criteria.

Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, R Z; Borthwick, Alistair G L

2011-08-01

Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

2017-09-04

To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

Science.gov (United States)

Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

2010-06-01

This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

Quantitative assessment of multiple sclerosis lesion load using CAD and expert input

Science.gov (United States)

Gertych, Arkadiusz; Wong, Alexis; Sangnil, Alan; Liu, Brent J.

2008-03-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a frequently encountered neurological disease with a progressive but variable course affecting the central nervous system. Outline-based lesion quantification in the assessment of lesion load (LL) performed on magnetic resonance (MR) images is clinically useful and provides information about the development and change reflecting overall disease burden. Methods of LL assessment that rely on human input are tedious, have higher intra- and inter-observer variability and are more time-consuming than computerized automatic (CAD) techniques. At present it seems that methods based on human lesion identification preceded by non-interactive outlining by CAD are the best LL quantification strategies. We have developed a CAD that automatically quantifies MS lesions, displays 3-D lesion map and appends radiological findings to original images according to current DICOM standard. CAD is also capable to display and track changes and make comparison between patient's separate MRI studies to determine disease progression. The findings are exported to a separate imaging tool for review and final approval by expert. Capturing and standardized archiving of manual contours is also implemented. Similarity coefficients calculated from quantities of LL in collected exams show a good correlation of CAD-derived results vs. those incorporated as expert's reading. Combining the CAD approach with an expert interaction may impact to the diagnostic work-up of MS patients because of improved reproducibility in LL assessment and reduced time for single MR or comparative exams reading. Inclusion of CAD-generated outlines as DICOM-compliant overlays into the image data can serve as a better reference in MS progression tracking.

A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

2003-08-01

This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

Assessment of adherence problems in patients with serious and persistent mental illness: recommendations from the Expert Consensus Guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Velligan, Dawn I; Weiden, Peter J; Sajatovic, Martha; Scott, Jan; Carpenter, Daniel; Ross, Ruth; Docherty, John P

2010-01-01

Poor adherence to medication treatment can have devastating consequences for patients with serious mental illness. The literature review and recommendations in this article concerning assessment of adherence are reprinted from The Expert Consensus Guideline Series: Adherence Problems in Patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness, published in 2009. The expert consensus survey contained 39 questions (521 options) that asked about defining nonadherence, extent of adherence problems in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, risk factors for nonadherence, assessment methods, and interventions for specific types of adherence problems. The survey was completed by 41 (85%) of the 48 experts to whom it was sent. When evaluating adherence, the experts considered it important to assess both behavior and attitude, although they considered actual behavior most important. They also noted the importance of distinguishing patients who are not willing to take medication from those who are willing but not able to take their medication as prescribed due to forgetfulness, misunderstanding of instructions, or financial or environmental problems, since this will affect the type of intervention needed. Although self- and physician report are most commonly used to clinically assess adherence, they are often inaccurate and may underestimate nonadherence. The experts believe that more accurate information will be obtained by asking about any problems patients are having or anticipate having taking medication rather than if they have been taking their medication; They also recommended speaking with family or caregivers, if the patient gives permission, as well as using more objective measures (e.g., pill counts, pharmacy records, smart pill containers if available, and, when appropriate, medication plasma levels). Use of a validated self-report scale may also help improve accuracy. For patients who appear adherent to medication, the experts recommended monthly assessments for

Capacity Building for Sustainable Marine Research in the Asia-Pacific Region

Science.gov (United States)

Hu, Liuming; Avril, Bernard; Zhang, Jing

2013-01-01

An international workshop on capacity building (CB) for marine research in the Asia-Pacific region (http://www.imber.info/index.php/Science/Working-Groups/Capacity-Building/2012-CB-Workshop) was held at the East China Normal University (ECNU), in Shanghai, China. The workshop brought together about 20 marine researchers and CB experts from 14 countries to discuss CB experiences, assess regional CB needs, and consider recommendations to improve regional CB, which would be of interest to other groups and other geographical regions.

Dangerous Liaisons? Psychiatry and Law in the Court of Protection—Expert Discourses of ‘Insight’ (and ‘Compliance’)

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

A finding that ‘P’ (as the person who is subject to Court of Protection proceedings is known) lacks mental capacity is the trigger for exposing them to decision-making by others and the powers of the Court of Protection (CoP) which, in the words of Justice Hedley, can be ‘invasive and draconian’ (Hedley J in PC v City of York Council cited in [2013] EWCA Civ 478 [13]). Whilst the law asserts the upper hand in the assessment of mental capacity for persons who come before the CoP, it is the discipline of psychiatry, which dominates expert witness testimony in these proceedings. There are a number of implications of allowing psychiatry to dominate this terrain, not least that, as will be argued in this article, clinical discourse, which makes reference to non-statutory terminology such as ‘lack of insight’ and ‘non-compliance’ are imported into the business of capacity assessment. This terminology, if used lazily and without clear reference to the statutory criteria, has the potential to muddy the waters of assessing P’s capacity. At its worst, it can mask value judgements, which threaten to undermine the law’s ‘autonomy promoting’ provisions set out in the Mental Capacity Act 2005. Whilst it is not intended to discredit ‘insight’ as a concept in psychiatry, this article concludes that it has a proper context and that in the mental capacity context, decision-makers, lawyers, and advocates should exercise careful scrutiny of its use, and CoP judgments should carefully interrogate the language imported by expert witnesses. PMID:28007808

Preparing Principals as Instructional Leaders: Perceptions of University Faculty, Expert Principals, and Expert Teacher Leaders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor Backor, Karen; Gordon, Stephen P.

2015-01-01

Although research has established links between the principal's instructional leadership and student achievement, there is considerable concern in the literature concerning the capacity of principal preparation programs to prepare instructional leaders. This study interviewed educational leadership faculty as well as expert principals and teacher…

Assessment of policy makers' individual and organizational capacity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An evidence to policy self-assessment questionnaire was used to assess the capacity of forty MNCH policy makers to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence for policy making. Results: Low mean ratings were observed ranging from 2.68-3.53 on a scale of 5 for knowledge about initiating/conducting research ...

Proposal of a system of indicators to assess the training of experts in a high-tech organization

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Elías Hardy, Lidia Lauren; González Olaguive, Elizabeth Vicenta; Martínez Martínez, Elisa

2015-01-01

Objective: present a proposal of a system of indicators to assess actions aimed at the training and development of experts in a high-tech organization. Methods: an analysis was conducted of the various theories dealing with the training and development of experts, examining their features and components. Design of the system of indicators was based on surveys and direct observation. The system of indicators thus designed was validated with the Delphi method, the application of the Likert scale and the statistical treatment of answers provided by experts, using median and interquartile range values to establish the consensus of experts. Results: a working definition is proposed of the concept expert based on two dimensions: qualification and performance, and individual and collective variables, indicators and measurement criteria. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0,8655) showed the internal consistency of the tool used. The median and interquartile range values obtained made it possible to establish the consensus of participants in the validation of the system of indicators. Conclusions: the system of indicators developed and its two dimensions make it possible to assess the training and development of experts at the Cuban Neuroscience Center, as well as the system of actions performed. The indicator showing the lowest results is that of productivity of experts in the training of human resources of high academic level. (author)

Financial and testamentary capacity evaluations: procedures and assessment instruments underneath a functional approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Sousa, Liliana B; Simões, Mário R; Firmino, Horácio; Peisah, Carmelle

2014-02-01

Mental health professionals are frequently involved in mental capacity determinations. However, there is a lack of specific measures and well-defined procedures for these evaluations. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a review of financial and testamentary capacity evaluation procedures, including not only the traditional neuropsychological and functional assessment but also the more recently developed forensic assessment instruments (FAIs), which have been developed to provide a specialized answer to legal systems regarding civil competencies. Here the main guidelines, papers, and other references are reviewed in order to achieve a complete and comprehensive selection of instruments used in the assessment of financial and testamentary capacity. Although some specific measures for financial abilities have been developed recently, the same is not true for testamentary capacity. Here are presented several instruments or methodologies for assessing financial and testamentary capacity, including neuropsychological assessment, functional assessment scales, performance based functional assessment instruments, and specific FAIs. FAIs are the only specific instruments intended to provide a specific and direct answer to the assessment of financial capacity based on legal systems. Considering the need to move from a diagnostic to a functional approach in financial and testamentary capacity evaluations, it is essential to consider both general functional examination as well as cognitive functioning.

Mapping agricultural landscapes and characterizing adaptive capacity in Central America

Science.gov (United States)

Holland, M. B.; Imbach, P. A.; Bouroncle, C.; Donatti, C.; Leguia, E.; Martinez, M.; Medellin, C.; Saborio-Rodriguez, M.; Shamer, S.; Zamora, J.

2013-12-01

One of the key challenges in developing adaptation strategies for smallholder farmers in developing countries is that of a data-poor environment, where spatially-explicit information about where the most vulnerable smallholder communities are located is lacking. Developing countries tend to lack consistent and reliable maps on agricultural land use, and have limited information available on smallholder adaptive capacity. We developed a novel participatory and expert mapping process to overcome these barriers and develop detailed national-scale maps that allow for a characterization of unique agricultural landscapes based on profiles of adaptive capacity for smallholder agriculture in each area. This research focuses specifically on the Central American nations of Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Honduras, where our focus is on coffee and basic grains as the two main cropping systems. Here we present the methodology and results of a series of in-depth interviews and participatory mapping sessions with experts working within the broader agricultural sector in each country. We held individual interviews and mapping sessions with approximately thirty experts from each country, and used a detailed survey instrument for each mapping session to both spatially identify distinct agricultural landscapes, and to further characterize each area based on specific farm practices and social context. The survey also included a series of questions to help us assess the relative adaptive capacity of smallholder agriculture within each landscape. After all expert mapping sessions were completed in each country we convened an expert group to assist in both validating and refining the set of landscapes already defined. We developed a characterization of adaptive capacity by aggregating indicators into main assets-based criteria (e.g. land tenure, access to credit, access to technical assistance, sustainable farm practices) derived from further expert weighting of indicators through an online

Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

1987-08-01

The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

A framework for self-assessment of capacity needs in land administration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Enemark, Stig; van der Molen, Paul

2006-01-01

This paper is facing the widely stated problem of poor institutional capacity of land administration agencies in many developing and transition countries. Responding to this problem has not been simple. The challenges of building capacity in land administration are immense and not similar to just...... human resource development. Capacity building addresses the broader concept of the ability of organisations and individuals to perform functions effectively, efficiently and sustainable. The guidelines presented in this paper address the ability/capacity of land administration systems at the societal...... processes; to needed human resources and training programs. For each step the capacity of the system can be assessed and possible or needed improvement can be identified. The guidelines aim to function as a basis for in-country self-assessment of the capacity needs in land administration. The government may...

Development of the post-accident expert assessment capacity of I.R.S.N

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Repussard, J.

2008-01-01

Emergency preparedness is a key feature of IRSN's mission within the French institutional organisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection. In the event of an accident, IRSN is expected to propose to authorities the appropriate technical decisions in order to safeguard public health, environmental protection, and to restore safety. The article discusses the nature of the challenges that IRSN would have to meet in order to implement its mission during the 'post-accident' phase, which would last a long time if a significative environmental contamination did occur. These four challenges shape the strategy chosen by IRSN to prepare itself for such an eventuality: - to ensure the readiness of its experts, and the validity of its doctrine for intervention, on the basis of research results and of accumulated practical experience, - to maintain state of the art metrology facilities and computer models which would be needed to operate IRSN's response, - to elaborate, and maintain through exercises, plans to mobilize efficiently for the purpose of post-accident operations IRSN's resources which are normally dedicated to other tasks, - the work conducted by IRSN would also be expected to contribute to confidence rebuilding across society, after a nuclear accident. Communication and transparency will play a major role for this, and IRSN's culture and values have to take this fully into account. The conclusion stresses the importance of resource allocation across the different missions of IRSN, the achievement of prevention of accidents through the safety analysis and research processes remaining of paramount importance, and emergency preparedness being the last line of defence. International cooperation is in this respect one of the better ways to enhanced efficiency. (author)

The development and implementation of a decision-making capacity assessment model.

Science.gov (United States)

Parmar, Jasneet; Brémault-Phillips, Suzette; Charles, Lesley

2015-03-01

Decision-making capacity assessment (DMCA) is an issue of increasing importance for older adults. Current challenges need to be explored, and potential processes and strategies considered in order to address issues of DMCA in a more coordinated manner. An iterative process was used to address issues related to DMCA. This began with recognition of challenges associated with capacity assessments (CAs) by staff at Covenant Health (CH). Review of the literature, as well as discussions with and a survey of staff at three CH sites, resulted in determination of issues related to DMCA. Development of a DMCA Model and demonstration of its feasibility followed. A process was proposed with front-end screening/problem- solving, a well-defined standard assessment, and definition of team member roles. A Capacity Assessment Care Map was formulated based on the process. Documentation was developed consisting of a Capacity Assessment Process Worksheet, Capacity Interview Worksheet, and a brochure. Interactive workshops were delivered to familiarize staff with the DMCA Model. A successful demonstration project led to implementation across all sites in the Capital Health region, and eventual provincial endorsement. Concerns identified in the survey and in the literature regarding CA were addressed through the holistic interdisciplinary approach offered by the DMCA Model.

Joint meeting of the Group of Experts on Effects of Pollutants (GEEP) and Group of Experts on Methods, Standards and Intercalibration (GEMSI)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-01-01

The Joint Meeting of the Group of Experts on Effects of Pollutants (GEEP) and the Group of Experts on Methods, Standards and Intercalibration (GEMSI) convened in Moscow 15-20 October 1990, has discussed the recent workshops and forthcoming activities. Some of the objectives were: (i) To facilitate and enhance development of techniques for the quantitative measurement of biological effects on marine organisms; (ii) To pursue evaluation of techniques in real situations in the field; (iii) To disseminate these techniques to the scientific and user community at large via workshops and the preparation of manuals. The Group will modify these objectives according to the needs of the nineties. The Integrated Studies and Monitoring of Marine Ecosystems Exposed to Anthropogenic Impact and Global Climate Change (ECOMONOC) Programme is to assess the state of marine ecosystems in relation to anthropogenic impact and climate change, their assimilative capacity and to determine the global changes of ecological conditions in the World Ocean. Their tasks include: (i) investigations into biogeochemical contaminant cycles and the mapping of the distribution of contaminants; (ii) assessment of the ecological consequences to the World Ocean of pollution in various geographical zones; (iii) assessment of the assimilative capacity in key regions of the World Ocean; and (iv) investigation of carbon cycle in the ecosystems of the World Ocean and the determination of its role in global climatic processes. Participants reported that worldwide demand for standards and reference materials for use in marine science was increasing rapidly and that this demand had doubled in the past three years. A major achievement has been the very recent publication by NOAA(USA), in loose-leaf format, of the world's most comprehensive catalogue of relevant standards and reference materials (A. Cantillo, ''Standard and Reference Materials for Marine Science''). Other relevant international programmes encompass

Expert validation of fit-for-purpose guidelines for designing programmes of assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dijkstra Joost

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An assessment programme, a purposeful mix of assessment activities, is necessary to achieve a complete picture of assessee competence. High quality assessment programmes exist, however, design requirements for such programmes are still unclear. We developed guidelines for design based on an earlier developed framework which identified areas to be covered. A fitness-for-purpose approach defining quality was adopted to develop and validate guidelines. Methods First, in a brainstorm, ideas were generated, followed by structured interviews with 9 international assessment experts. Then, guidelines were fine-tuned through analysis of the interviews. Finally, validation was based on expert consensus via member checking. Results In total 72 guidelines were developed and in this paper the most salient guidelines are discussed. The guidelines are related and grouped per layer of the framework. Some guidelines were so generic that these are applicable in any design consideration. These are: the principle of proportionality, rationales should underpin each decisions, and requirement of expertise. Logically, many guidelines focus on practical aspects of assessment. Some guidelines were found to be clear and concrete, others were less straightforward and were phrased more as issues for contemplation. Conclusions The set of guidelines is comprehensive and not bound to a specific context or educational approach. From the fitness-for-purpose principle, guidelines are eclectic, requiring expertise judgement to use them appropriately in different contexts. Further validation studies to test practicality are required.

Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

2003-01-01

The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

d'Alquen Daniela

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1 develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2 evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3 explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. Methods The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. Results A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p Conclusions The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness.

Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project.

Science.gov (United States)

d'Alquen, Daniela; De Boeck, Kris; Bradley, Judy; Vávrová, Věra; Dembski, Birgit; Wagner, Thomas O F; Pfalz, Annette; Hebestreit, Helge

2012-02-06

The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF) established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2) evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3) explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p value 0.105 ± 0.024, p change over time. The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness. © 2012 d’Alquen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Assessing Capacity of Faith-Based Organizations for Health Promotion Activities.

Science.gov (United States)

Tagai, Erin Kelly; Scheirer, Mary Ann; Santos, Sherie Lou Z; Haider, Muhiuddin; Bowie, Janice; Slade, Jimmie; Whitehead, Tony L; Wang, Min Qi; Holt, Cheryl L

2017-10-01

Faith-based organizations (FBOs) are important venues for health promotion, particularly in medically underserved communities. These organizations vary considerably in their structural capacities, which may be linked to variability in implementation success for health promotion initiatives. Lacking an existing validated assessment of organizational capacity specific to FBOs, an initial prototype assessment was developed. The Faith-Based Organization Capacity Inventory (FBO-CI) assesses three structural areas of capacity: Staffing and Space, Health Promotion Experience, and External Collaboration. The multidisciplinary team, including FBO leaders, codeveloped the initial instrument. The initial reliability from a convenience sample of 34 African American churches including descriptions of FBOs representing three capacity levels is reported. The FBO-CI demonstrated feasibility of administration using an in-person interview format, and the three subscales had acceptable internal reliability (α ~ .70). Most churches had an established health ministry (n = 23) and had conducted activities across an average of seven health areas in the previous 2 years. This initial FBO-CI prototype is promising, and future work should consider validation with a larger sample of churches and domain expansion based on the conceptual model. The FBO-CI has a number of potential uses for researchers, FBO leaders, and practitioners working with FBOs in health promotion initiatives.

CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR A THAI COMMUNITY.

Science.gov (United States)

Chaithui, Suthat; Sithisarankul, Pornchai; Hengpraprom, Sarunya

2017-03-01

This research aimed at exploring the development of the capacitybuilding process in environmental and health impact assessment, including the consideration of subsequent, capacity-building achievements. Data were gathered through questionnaires, participatory observations, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and capacity building checklist forms. These data were analyzed using content analysis, descriptive statistics, and inferential statistics. Our study used the components of the final draft for capacity-building processes consisting of ten steps that were formulated by synthesis from each respective process. Additionally, the evaluation of capacity building levels was performed using 10-item evaluation criteria for nine communities. The results indicated that the communities performed well under these criteria. Finally, exploration of the factors influencing capacity building in environmental and health impact assessment indicated that the learning of community members by knowledge exchange via activities and study visits were the most influential factors of the capacity building processes in environmental and health impact assessment. The final revised version of capacitybuilding process in environmental and health impact assessment could serve as a basis for the consideration of interventions in similar areas, so that they increased capacity in environmental and health impact assessments.

Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stroma invasion in women with endometrial cancer -interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eriksson, LS; Lindqvist, PG; Flöter Rådestad, A

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists in the prediction of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion by transvaginal ultrasound in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: Video-clips of the corpus- and cervix uteri of 53 women...... with endometrial cancer, examined preoperatively by the same ultrasound expert, were integrated in a digitalized survey. Nine ultrasound experts and 9 gynaecologists evaluated presence or absence of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion. Histopathology from hysterectomy specimen was used as gold standard.......001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative ultrasound assessment of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion in endometrial cancer is best performed by ultrasound experts, as they show a higher degree of agreement to histopathology and higher interobserver reproducibility in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion....

Health-care professionals' knowledge, attitudes and behaviours relating to patient capacity to consent to treatment: an integrative review.

Science.gov (United States)

Lamont, Scott; Jeon, Yun-Hee; Chiarella, Mary

2013-09-01

This integrative review aims to provide a synthesis of research findings of health-care professionals' knowledge, attitudes and behaviours relating to patient capacity to consent to or refuse treatment within the general hospital setting. Search strategies included relevant health databases, hand searching of key journals, 'snowballing' and expert recommendations. The review identified various knowledge gaps and attitudinal dispositions of health-care professionals, which influence their behaviours and decision-making in relation to capacity to consent processes. The findings suggest that there is tension between legal, ethical and professional standards relating to the assessment of capacity and consent within health care. Legislation and policy guidance concerning capacity assessment processes are lacking, and this may contribute to inconsistencies in practice.

Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgment Elicitation Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coppersmith, K.J.; Perman, R.C.; Youngs, R.R.

1993-02-01

This report summarizes the results of the Earthquakes and Tectonics Expert Judgement Excitation Project sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The objectives of this study were two-fold: (1) to demonstrate methods for the excitation of expert judgement, and (2) to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for use in the EPRI-HLW performance assessment. Specifically, the technical issue considered is the probability of differential fault displacement through the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. For this study, a strategy for quantifying uncertainties was developed that relies on the judgements of multiple experts. A panel of seven geologists and seismologists was assembled to quantify the uncertainties associated with earthquake and tectonics issues for the performance assessment model. A series of technical workshops focusing on these issues were conducted. Finally, each expert was individually interviewed in order to elicit his judgement regarding the technical issues and to provide the technical basis for his assessment. This report summarizes the methodologies used to elicit the judgements of the earthquakes and tectonics experts (termed ''specialists''), and summarizes the technical assessments made by the expert panel

Quantitative safety assessment of air traffic control systems through system control capacity

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Jingjing

Quantitative Safety Assessments (QSA) are essential to safety benefit verification and regulations of developmental changes in safety critical systems like the Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. Effectiveness of the assessments is particularly desirable today in the safe implementations of revolutionary ATC overhauls like NextGen and SESAR. QSA of ATC systems are however challenged by system complexity and lack of accident data. Extending from the idea "safety is a control problem" in the literature, this research proposes to assess system safety from the control perspective, through quantifying a system's "control capacity". A system's safety performance correlates to this "control capacity" in the control of "safety critical processes". To examine this idea in QSA of the ATC systems, a Control-capacity Based Safety Assessment Framework (CBSAF) is developed which includes two control capacity metrics and a procedural method. The two metrics are Probabilistic System Control-capacity (PSC) and Temporal System Control-capacity (TSC); each addresses an aspect of a system's control capacity. And the procedural method consists three general stages: I) identification of safety critical processes, II) development of system control models and III) evaluation of system control capacity. The CBSAF was tested in two case studies. The first one assesses an en-route collision avoidance scenario and compares three hypothetical configurations. The CBSAF was able to capture the uncoordinated behavior between two means of control, as was observed in a historic midair collision accident. The second case study compares CBSAF with an existing risk based QSA method in assessing the safety benefits of introducing a runway incursion alert system. Similar conclusions are reached between the two methods, while the CBSAF has the advantage of simplicity and provides a new control-based perspective and interpretation to the assessments. The case studies are intended to investigate the

Expert Panel Elicitation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

2005-09-15

Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

Reserves in load capacity assessment of existing bridges

Science.gov (United States)

Žitný, Jan; Ryjáček, Pavel

2017-09-01

High percentage of all railway bridges in the Czech Republic is made of structural steel. Majority of these bridges is designed according to historical codes and according to the deterioration, they have to be assessed if they satisfy the needs of modern railway traffic. The load capacity assessment of existing bridges according to Eurocodes is however often too conservative and especially, braking and acceleration forces cause huge problems to structural elements of the bridge superstructure. The aim of this paper is to review the different approaches for the determination of braking and acceleration forces. Both, current and historical theoretical models and in-situ measurements are considered. The research of several local European state norms superior to Eurocode for assessment of existing railway bridges shows the big diversity of used local approaches and the conservativeness of Eurocode. This paper should also work as an overview for designers dealing with load capacity assessment, revealing the reserves for existing bridges. Based on these different approaches, theoretical models and data obtained from the measurements, the method for determination of braking and acceleration forces on the basis of real traffic data should be proposed.

Expert assessment of advanced power sources. Contract report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gardner, C.L.

2007-07-01

Although DRDC published an exhaustive technical report (in August 2001) on technology trends in advanced power sources projected out to the year 2020, the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 (and the consequent, augmented and more broadly-based defence and national security posture adopted by the CF/DND), together with rapid developments in power source technologies over the past five years, internationally, prompted DRDC to update the 2001 report, on a selected number of power source technologies or applications and to provide further guidance to DRDC's Advanced Power Source R and D program. Eight wide-ranging, power source technologies or applications were investigated, using the technique of 'expert elicitation' (that is, using independent experts in the various and diverse technological fields), based on a standardized questionnaire, augmented by the contractor's own expertise (and his overall analysis of the experts' responses) in these diverse areas. In addition, each expert was asked about his/her view on the likely role of nanotechnology in each technological area or application. Following collection and analysis of all the data, the contractor made recommendations on the ability of each power source to meet the future requirements of the CF/DND, taking into account the Technology Readiness Level, for each technology or application

Capacity assessment of concrete containment vessels subjected to aircraft impact

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andonov, Anton, E-mail: anton.andonov@mottmac.com; Kostov, Marin; Iliev, Alexander

2015-12-15

Highlights: • An approach to assess the containment capacity to aircraft impact via fragility curves is proposed. • Momentum over Area was defined as most suitable reference parameter to describe the aircraft load. • The effect of the impact induced damages on the containment pressure capacity has been studied. • The studied containment shows no reduction of the pressure capacity for the investigated scenarios. • The effectiveness of innovative protective structure against aircraft impact has been evaluated. - Abstract: The paper describes the procedure and the results from the assessment of the vulnerability of a generic pre-stressed containment structure subjected to a large commercial aircraft impact. Impacts of Boeing 737, Boeing 767 and Boeing 747 have been considered. The containment vulnerability is expressed by fragility curves based on the results of a number of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Three reference parameters have been considered as impact intensity measure in the fragility curve definition: peak impact force (PIF), peak impact pressure (PIP) and Momentum over Area (MoA). Conclusions on the most suitable reference parameter as well on the vulnerability of such containment vessels are drawn. The influence of the aircraft impact induced damages on the containment ultimate pressure capacity is also assessed and some preliminary conclusions on this are drawn. The paper also addresses a conceptual design of a protective structure able to decrease the containment vulnerability and provide a preliminary assessment of the applicability of such concept.

Capacity assessment of concrete containment vessels subjected to aircraft impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andonov, Anton; Kostov, Marin; Iliev, Alexander

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An approach to assess the containment capacity to aircraft impact via fragility curves is proposed. • Momentum over Area was defined as most suitable reference parameter to describe the aircraft load. • The effect of the impact induced damages on the containment pressure capacity has been studied. • The studied containment shows no reduction of the pressure capacity for the investigated scenarios. • The effectiveness of innovative protective structure against aircraft impact has been evaluated. - Abstract: The paper describes the procedure and the results from the assessment of the vulnerability of a generic pre-stressed containment structure subjected to a large commercial aircraft impact. Impacts of Boeing 737, Boeing 767 and Boeing 747 have been considered. The containment vulnerability is expressed by fragility curves based on the results of a number of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Three reference parameters have been considered as impact intensity measure in the fragility curve definition: peak impact force (PIF), peak impact pressure (PIP) and Momentum over Area (MoA). Conclusions on the most suitable reference parameter as well on the vulnerability of such containment vessels are drawn. The influence of the aircraft impact induced damages on the containment ultimate pressure capacity is also assessed and some preliminary conclusions on this are drawn. The paper also addresses a conceptual design of a protective structure able to decrease the containment vulnerability and provide a preliminary assessment of the applicability of such concept.

Experts' Perceptions on China's Capacity to Manage Emerging and Re-emerging Zoonotic Diseases in an Era of Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, A; Xiang, J; Liu, Q; Tong, M X; Sun, Y; Liu, X; Chen, K; Cameron, S; Hanson-Easey, S; Han, G-S; Weinstein, P; Williams, C; Bi, P

2017-11-01

Zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents are a major public health concern in China. However, interventions in recent decades have helped lower the incidence of several diseases despite the country's large, frequently mobile population and socio-economic challenges. Increasing globalization, rapid urbanization and a warming climate now add to the complexity of disease control and prevention and could challenge China's capacity to respond to threats of emerging and re-emerging zoonoses. To investigate this notion, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 30 infectious disease experts in four cities in China. The case study diseases under discussion were malaria, dengue fever and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, all of which may be influenced by changing meteorological conditions. Data were analysed using standard qualitative techniques. The study participants viewed the current disease prevention and control system favourably and were optimistic about China's capacity to manage climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Several recommendations emerged from the data including the need to improve health literacy in the population regarding the transmission of infectious diseases and raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change amongst policymakers and health professionals. Participants thought that research capacity could be strengthened and human resources issues for front-line staff should be addressed. It was considered important that authorities are well prepared in advance for outbreaks such as dengue fever in populous subtropical areas, and a prompt and coordinated response is required when outbreaks occur. Furthermore, health professionals need to remain skilled in the identification of diseases for which incidence is declining, so that re-emerging or emerging trends can be rapidly identified. Recommendations such as these may be useful in formulating adaptation plans and capacity building for the future control and

Application of expert systems in damage assessment of reinforced concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fazel Zarandi, M. H.; Sobhani, J.

2003-01-01

Expert systems are receiving great attentions in construction industry to support decision making processes in diagnostics, design, repair and rehabilitation of the structures. Although several expert systems have been examined in engineering since the 1970's, their applications in construction industry are rate. This was largely due to the lack of expert system tools available to represent the domain knowledge. Lack of flexibility, applicability, and robustness of the classical models, have forced the scientists to discover the ability of the expert systems in problem solving of civil engineering. This paper present an expert system for diagnosis the deterioration of concrete structures. This expert system emphasizes on cracking distress in reinforced concrete elements. A case study has been presented to examine and evaluate the proposed expert system. The system demonstrates a straightforward method for diagnosing the cause of reinforced concrete elements cracking

Assessment of Capacity in an Aging Society

Science.gov (United States)

Moye, Jennifer; Marson, Daniel C.; Edelstein, Barry

2013-01-01

Over the past 40 years, the assessment and scientific study of capacity in older adults has emerged as a distinct field of clinical and research activity for psychologists. This new field reflects the convergence of several trends: the aging of American society, the growing incidence and prevalence of dementia, and the patient rights,…

Parenting capacity assessment for the court in a multifamily group setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Di Pasquale

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Parenting capacity assessment in court evaluations is a particularly complex task, given that it is necessary to consider the vast array of distinct and interrelated aspects and abilities which represent parenting, as well as the elevated number of contextual levels that influence parenting quality. The perspective we want to introduce regards the potentiality of the multifamily group as the elective observational setting in parenting capacity assessment.

ASSESSMENT OF POWER QUALITY DISTURBANCE USING EXPERT SYSTEM

OpenAIRE

A.N.MALLESWARA RAO,; Dr. K.RAMESH REDDY,; Dr. B.V.SANKER RAM

2011-01-01

This paper describes a fuzzy expert system in order to understand and deal with power quality problems encountered in distribution systems in a better way. Because of the technology and software now available this monitoring is highly effective, the fuzzy expert system not only can provide information about the quality of the power and the causes of power system disturbances, but it can identify problem conditions throughout the system before they cause widespread customer complains and equip...

Building Capacity for Better Results: Strategies for Financing and Sustaining the Organizational Capacity of Youth-Serving Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Silloway, Torey

2010-01-01

Most nonprofit leaders understand the importance of building strong organizational capacity, but finding ways to support and strengthen this capacity often poses significant challenges. Nonprofit leaders may hesitate to divert money from direct services when funds are needed to support operations. Some experts in the field also note what they…

Expert Views on Regulatory Preparedness for Managing the Risks of Nanotechnologies

Science.gov (United States)

Beaudrie, Christian E. H.; Satterfield, Terre; Kandlikar, Milind; Harthorn, Barbara H.

2013-01-01

The potential and promise of nanotechnologies depends in large part on the ability for regulatory systems to assess and manage their benefits and risks. However, considerable uncertainty persists regarding the health and environmental implications of nanomaterials, hence the capacity for existing regulations to meet this challenge has been widely questioned. Here we draw from a survey (N=254) of US-based nano-scientists and engineers, environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers, to ask whether nano experts regard regulatory agencies as prepared for managing nanomaterial risks. We find that all three expert groups view regulatory agencies as unprepared. The effect is strongest for regulators themselves, and less so for scientists conducting basic, applied, or health and safety work on nanomaterials. Those who see nanotechnology risks as novel, uncertain, and difficult to assess are particularly likely to see agencies as unprepared. Trust in regulatory agencies, views of stakeholder responsibility regarding the management of risks, and socio-political values were also found to be small but significant drivers of perceived agency preparedness. These results underscore the need for new tools and methods to enable the assessment of nanomaterial risks, and to renew confidence in regulatory agencies’ ability to oversee their growing use and application in society. PMID:24244662

Expert views on regulatory preparedness for managing the risks of nanotechnologies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian E H Beaudrie

Full Text Available The potential and promise of nanotechnologies depends in large part on the ability for regulatory systems to assess and manage their benefits and risks. However, considerable uncertainty persists regarding the health and environmental implications of nanomaterials, hence the capacity for existing regulations to meet this challenge has been widely questioned. Here we draw from a survey (N=254 of US-based nano-scientists and engineers, environmental health and safety scientists, and regulatory scientists and decision-makers, to ask whether nano experts regard regulatory agencies as prepared for managing nanomaterial risks. We find that all three expert groups view regulatory agencies as unprepared. The effect is strongest for regulators themselves, and less so for scientists conducting basic, applied, or health and safety work on nanomaterials. Those who see nanotechnology risks as novel, uncertain, and difficult to assess are particularly likely to see agencies as unprepared. Trust in regulatory agencies, views of stakeholder responsibility regarding the management of risks, and socio-political values were also found to be small but significant drivers of perceived agency preparedness. These results underscore the need for new tools and methods to enable the assessment of nanomaterial risks, and to renew confidence in regulatory agencies' ability to oversee their growing use and application in society.

Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

2017-02-01

Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Recommendations for ICT use in Alzheimer's disease assessment: Monaco CTAD Expert Meeting.

Science.gov (United States)

Robert, P H; Konig, A; Andrieu, S; Bremond, F; Chemin, I; Chung, P C; Dartigues, J F; Dubois, B; Feutren, G; Guillemaud, R; Kenisberg, P A; Nave, S; Vellas, B; Verhey, F; Yesavage, J; Mallea, P

2013-01-01

Alzheimer disease (AD) and other related dementia represent a major challenge for health care systems within the aging population. It is therefore important to develop better instruments for assessing disease severity and disease progression to optimize patient's care and support to care providers, and also provide better tools for clinical research. In this area, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are of particular interest. Such techniques enable accurate and standardized assessments of patients' performance and actions in real time and real life situations. The aim of this article is to provide basic recommendation concerning the development and the use of ICT for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders. During he ICT and Mental Health workshop (CTAD meeting held in Monaco on the 30th October 2012) an expert panel was set up to prepare the first recommendations for the use of ICT in dementia research. The expert panel included geriatrician, epidemiologist, neurologist, psychiatrist, psychologist, ICT engineers, representatives from the industry and patient association. The recommendations are divided into three sections corresponding to 1/ the clinical targets of interest for the use of ICT, 2/ the conditions, the type of sensors and the outputs (scores) that could be used and obtained, 3/ finally the last section concerns specifically the use of ICT within clinical trials.

The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

1991-01-01

Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

NDT-based bridge condition assessment supported by expert tools

Science.gov (United States)

Bień, J.; KuŻawa, M.

2016-06-01

This paper is focused on the progress in the application of Expert Tools supporting integration of inspection and NDT testing findings in order to effectuate effective decision making by bridge owners. Possibilities of knowledge representation in the intelligent computer Expert Tools by means of the multi-level hybrid network technology are described. These multi-level hybrid networks can be built of neural, fuzzy and functional components depending on the problem that needs to be solved and on the type of available information. Application of the technology is illustrated by an example of the Bridge Evaluation Expert Function (BEEF) implemented in the Railway Bridge Management System "SMOK" operated by the Polish State Railways.

Early-career experts essential for planetary sustainability

Science.gov (United States)

Lim, Michelle; Lynch, Abigail J.; Fernández-Llamazares, Alvaro; Balint, Lenke; Basher, Zeenatul; Chan, Ivis; Jaureguiberry, Pedro; Mohamed, A.A.A.; Mwampamba, Tuyeni H.; Palomo, Ignacio; Pliscoff, Patricio; Salimov, R.A.; Samakov, Aibek; Selomane, Odirilwe; Shrestha, Uttam B.; Sidorovich, Anna A.

2017-01-01

Early-career experts can play a fundamental role in achieving planetary sustainability by bridging generational divides and developing novel solutions to complex problems. We argue that intergenerational partnerships and interdisciplinary collaboration among early-career experts will enable emerging sustainability leaders to contribute fully to a sustainable future. We review 16 international, interdisciplinary, and sustainability-focused early-career capacity building programs. We conclude that such programs are vital to developing sustainability leaders of the future and that decision-making for sustainability is likely to be best served by strong institutional cultures that promote intergenerational learning and involvement.

Application of expert-notice dialogue (END) method to assess students’ science communication ability on biology

Science.gov (United States)

Sriyati, S.; Amelia, D. N.; Soniyana, G. T.

2018-05-01

Student’s science communication ability can be assessed by the Expert-Notice Dialogue (END) method which focusing on verbal explanations using graphs or images as a tool. This study aims to apply the END method to assess students’ science communication ability. The study was conducted in two high schools with each sample of one class at each school (A and B). The number of experts in class A is 8 students and 7 in class B, the number of notice in class A 24 students and 30 in class B. The material chosen for explanation by expert is Ecosystem in class A and plant classification in class B. Research instruments are rubric of science communication ability, observation rubric, notice concept test and notice questionnaire. The implementation recorded with a video camera and then transcribed based on rubric science communication ability. The results showed that the average of science communication ability in class A and B was 60% and 61.8%, respectively, in enough categories. Mastery of the notice concept is in good category with 79.10 averages in class A and 94.64 in class B. Through the questionnaire notice it is known that the END method generally helps notice in understanding the concept.

Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

1998-01-01

A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

Expert Assessment of Conditions for Accredited Quality Management System Functioning in Testing Laboratories

Science.gov (United States)

Mytych, Joanna; Ligarski, Mariusz J.

2018-03-01

The quality management systems compliant with the ISO 9001:2009 have been thoroughly researched and described in detail in the world literature. The accredited management systems used in the testing laboratories and compliant with the ISO/IEC 17025:2005 have been mainly described in terms of the system design and implementation. They have also been investigated from the analytical point of view. Unfortunately, a low number of studies concerned the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories. The aim of following study was to assess the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories in Poland. On 8 October 2015, 1,213 accredited testing laboratories were present in Poland. They investigated various scientific areas and substances/objects. There are more and more such laboratories that have various problems and different long-term experience when it comes to the implementation, maintenance and improvement of the management systems. The article describes the results of the conducted expert assessment (survey) carried out to examine the conditions for the functioning of a management system in an accredited laboratory. It also focuses on the characteristics of the accredited research laboratories in Poland. The authors discuss the selection of the external and internal conditions that may affect the accredited management system. They show how the experts assessing the selected conditions were chosen. The survey results are also presented.

Testing a Web-Based, Trained-Peer Model to Build Capacity for Evidence-Based Practices in Community Mental Health Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

German, Ramaris E; Adler, Abby; Frankel, Sarah A; Stirman, Shannon Wiltsey; Pinedo, Paola; Evans, Arthur C; Beck, Aaron T; Creed, Torrey A

2018-03-01

Use of expert-led workshops plus consultation has been established as an effective strategy for training community mental health (CMH) clinicians in evidence-based practices (EBPs). Because of high rates of staff turnover, this strategy inadequately addresses the need to maintain capacity to deliver EBPs. This study examined knowledge, competency, and retention outcomes of a two-phase model developed to build capacity for an EBP in CMH programs. In the first phase, an initial training cohort in each CMH program participated in in-person workshops followed by expert-led consultation (in-person, expert-led [IPEL] phase) (N=214 clinicians). After this cohort completed training, new staff members participated in Web-based training (in place of in-person workshops), followed by peer-led consultation with the initial cohort (Web-based, trained-peer [WBTP] phase) (N=148). Tests of noninferiority assessed whether WBTP was not inferior to IPEL at increasing clinician cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) competency, as measured by the Cognitive Therapy Rating Scale. WBTP was not inferior to IPEL at developing clinician competency. Hierarchical linear models showed no significant differences in CBT knowledge acquisition between the two phases. Survival analyses indicated that WBTP trainees were less likely than IPEL trainees to complete training. In terms of time required from experts, WBTP required 8% of the resources of IPEL. After an initial investment to build in-house CBT expertise, CMH programs were able to use a WBTP model to broaden their own capacity for high-fidelity CBT. IPEL followed by WBTP offers an effective alternative to build EBP capacity in CMH programs, rather than reliance on external experts.

Knowledge based economy: The role of expert diaspora

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipović Jovan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Diasporas stand out as an economic or cultural avant-garde of transformation. This is especially true for academic and other intellectual Diaspora communities, because science and knowledge creation are global enterprises. Proclivity of knowledge workers to move in order to improve and absorb transnational knowledge through Diaspora networks might be an essential quality of an emerging national economy of a developing country. The article treats the role of expert Diaspora in knowledge based economy, innovation and talent management. Besides presenting the essentials of knowledge based economy and innovation, it discusses the role of expert Diaspora in science, technology and innovation (STI capacity building. Also, the article emphasizes the importance of leadership for talent and its implications for Diaspora. Using WEF statistics, it illustrates negative consequences of the sad policy of “Chaseaway the brightest and the best” for innovative capacity, competitiveness, and prosperity of nations.

Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

2006-01-01

Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

Assessing materials handling and storage capacities in port terminals

Science.gov (United States)

Dinu, O.; Roşca, E.; Popa, M.; Roşca, M. A.; Rusca, A.

2017-08-01

Terminals constitute the factual interface between different modes and, as a result, buffer stocks are unavoidable whenever transport flows with different discontinuities meet. This is the reason why assessing materials handling and storage capacities is an important issue in the course of attempting to increase operative planning of logistic processes in terminals. Proposed paper starts with a brief review of the compatibilities between different sorts of materials and corresponding transport modes and after, a literature overview of the studies related to ports terminals and their specialization is made. As a methodology, discrete event simulation stands as a feasible technique for assessing handling and storage capacities at the terminal, taking into consideration the multi-flows interaction and the non-uniform arrivals of vessels and inland vehicles. In this context, a simulation model, that integrates the activities of an inland water terminal and describes the essential interactions between the subsystems which influence the terminal capacity, is developed. Different scenarios are simulated for diverse sorts of materials, leading to bottlenecks identification, performance indicators such as average storage occupancy rate, average dwell or transit times estimations, and their evolution is analysed in order to improve the transfer operations in the logistic process

Development and assessment of an Al expert system for the monitoring and diagnosis of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takeuchi, K.; Gagnon, A.; Cheung, A.C.; Meyer, P.E.

1988-01-01

Due to the rapid progress in microcomputer and software development, artificial intelligence (AI) expert systems of practical value can be built into microcomputers. An expert system for nuclear plant surveillance, diagnostics, and prognostics was developed using the Texas Instruments AI shell, Personal Consultant Plus (PC-plus) on an IBM PCAT. This expert system runs in a surveillance mode to find an abnormal operating condition. Once an abnormal behavior is found,it switches to a diagnostics mode to identify the cause of difficult, such as steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and leak. Then, the prognostics mode can be activated to predict the consequences. For this purpose, the knowledge of experts at Westinghouse for nuclear safety has been collected and processed to construct parameters and rules within the framework of a logic tree. The expert system may be used in an on-line mode via a connection to the plant computer, safety parameter display system, or a plant simulator. In addition to evaluating the diagnosis of an event and providing appropriate information required to generate an event report, this tool can also be used to review the normal recorded plant data daily to assure that no abnormal events have occurred. A limited assessment of the expert system was performed and is presented

Predictors of financial capacity performance in older adults using the Financial Competence Assessment Inventory.

Science.gov (United States)

Pachana, Nancy A; Byrne, Gerard J; Wilson, Jill; Tilse, Cheryl; Pinsker, Donna M; Massavelli, Bronwyn; Vearncombe, Katharine J; Mitchell, Leander K

2014-06-01

Declines in financial capacity in later life may arise from both neurocognitive and/or psychiatric disorders. The influence of socio-demographic, cognitive, health, and psychiatric variables on financial capacity performance was explored. Seventy-six healthy community-dwelling adults and 25 older patients referred for assessment of financial capacity were assessed on pertinent cognitive, psychiatric, and financial capacity measures, including Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination - Revised (ACE-R), Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Geriatric Anxiety Inventory (GAI), selected Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) items, Financial Competence Assessment Inventory (FCAI), and Social Vulnerability Scale (SVS). The internal consistency of the debt management subscale of the FCAI was relatively poor in our sample. Financial capacity performance differed between controls and patients. In our sample, performance on the FCAI was predicted by Mini-Mental State Examination, IQCODE, and GAI, but not by ACE-R, GDS, NPI items, or SVS (adjusted R(2) = 0.7059). Anxiety but not depression predicted financial capacity performance, possibly reflecting relatively low variance of depressive symptoms in this sample. Current cognitive decline as measured by the informant-rated IQCODE was more highly correlated to financial capacity than either educational attainment or ACE-R scores. Lack of significance of ACE-R data may reflect the instrument's decreased sensitivity to domains relevant to financial capacity, compared with more detailed neuropsychological assessment tools. The FCAI displayed fairly robust psychometric properties apart from the debt management subscale.

Use of expert systems in the structural safety assessment of of pressurized nuclear components

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovanovic, A.; Sturm, D.

1990-01-01

The paper describes research currently performed at MPA Stuttgart on development of expert systems and application of artificial intelligence methods and techniques, for structural safety assessment of power plant pressurized components. The research is done as an extension of preceding and existing large research programs of MPA, in the domain of structural safety of components. In this preceding research a waste amount of practical engineering knowledge and experience has been accumulated: development in the direction of AI-based systems is a way to use this knowledge more efficiently in future research and in the nuclear power plant practice. Applications on which the current research is focussed are expert systems applied for the leak-before-break analysis for the structural safety evaluation in high temperature regimes

An expert system to estimate SNM production at LWR systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sandquist, G.M.; Allison, J.L.; Rogers, V.C.

1988-01-01

An artificial intelligence expert system, analysis of proliferation by expert system (APES), has been developed and tested to permit a nonexpert to quickly evaluate the capabilities and capacities of a reactor and reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium [special nuclear material (SNM)] even when system information may be limited and uncertain. The present analysis domain of APES is directed at light water reactors and Purex reprocessing, but extension of the domain is planned

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

2011-08-24

Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnold Emmy

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

Science.gov (United States)

Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

1994-01-01

Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

Attentional flexibility and memory capacity in conductors and pianists.

Science.gov (United States)

Wöllner, Clemens; Halpern, Andrea R

2016-01-01

Individuals with high working memory (WM) capacity also tend to have better selective and divided attention. Although both capacities are essential for skilled performance in many areas, evidence for potential training and expertise effects is scarce. We investigated the attentional flexibility of musical conductors by comparing them to equivalently trained pianists. Conductors must focus their attention both on individual instruments and on larger sections of different instruments. We studied students and professionals in both domains to assess the contributions of age and training to these skills. Participants completed WM span tests for auditory and visual (notated) pitches and timing durations, as well as long-term memory tests. In three dichotic attention tasks, they were asked to detect small pitch and timing deviations from two melodic streams presented in baseline (separate streams), selective-attention (concentrating on only one stream), and divided-attention (concentrating on targets in both streams simultaneously) conditions. Conductors were better than pianists in detecting timing deviations in divided attention, and experts detected more targets than students. We found no group differences for WM capacity or for pitch deviations in the attention tasks, even after controlling for the older age of the experts. Musicians' WM spans across multimodal conditions were positively related to selective and divided attention. High-WM participants also had shorter reaction times in selective attention. Taken together, conductors showed higher attentional flexibility in successfully switching between different foci of attention.

Quantitative and qualitative analysis of the expert and non-expert opinion in fire risk in buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hanea, D.M.; Jagtman, H.M.; Alphen, L.L.M.M. van; Ale, B.J.M.

2010-01-01

Expert judgment procedure is a method very often used in the area of risk assessments of complex systems or processes to fill in quantitative data. Although it has been proved to be a very reliable source of information when no other data are available, the choice of experts is always questioned. When the available data are limited, the seed questions cover only partially the domains of expertise, which may cause problems. Expertise is assessed not covering the full object of study but only those topics for which seed questions can be formulated. The commonly used quantitative analysis of an expert judgment exercise is combined with a qualitative analysis. The latter adds more insights to the relation between the assessor's field and statistical knowledge and their performance in an expert judgment. In addition the qualitative analysis identifies different types of seed questions. Three groups of assessors with different levels of statistical and domain knowledge are studied. The quantitative analysis shows no differences between field experts and non-experts and no differences between having advanced statistical knowledge or not. The qualitative analysis supports these findings. In addition it is found that especially technical questions are answered with larger intervals. Precaution is required when using seed questions for which the real value can be calculated, which was the case for one of the seed questions.

An inter-observer agreement study of autofluorescence endoscopy in Barrett's esophagus among expert and non-expert endoscopists.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannath, J; Subramanian, V; Telakis, E; Lau, K; Ramappa, V; Wireko, M; Kaye, P V; Ragunath, K

2013-02-01

Autofluorescence imaging (AFI), which is a "red flag" technique during Barrett's surveillance, is associated with significant false positive results. The aim of this study was to assess the inter-observer agreement (IOA) in identifying AFI-positive lesions and to assess the overall accuracy of AFI. Anonymized AFI and high resolution white light (HRE) images were prospectively collected. The AFI images were presented in random order, followed by corresponding AFI + HRE images. Three AFI experts and 3 AFI non-experts scored images after a training presentation. The IOA was calculated using kappa and accuracy was calculated with histology as gold standard. Seventy-four sets of images were prospectively collected from 63 patients (48 males, mean age 69 years). The IOA for number of AF positive lesions was fair when AFI images were presented. This improved to moderate with corresponding AFI and HRE images [experts 0.57 (0.44-0.70), non-experts 0.47 (0.35-0.62)]. The IOA for the site of AF lesion was moderate for experts and fair for non-experts using AF images, which improved to substantial for experts [κ = 0.62 (0.50-0.72)] but remained at fair for non-experts [κ = 0.28 (0.18-0.37)] with AFI + HRE. Among experts, the accuracy of identifying dysplasia was 0.76 (0.7-0.81) using AFI images and 0.85 (0.79-0.89) using AFI + HRE images. The accuracy was 0.69 (0.62-0.74) with AFI images alone and 0.75 (0.70-0.80) using AFI + HRE among non-experts. The IOA for AF positive lesions is fair to moderate using AFI images which improved with addition of HRE. The overall accuracy of identifying dysplasia was modest, and was better when AFI and HRE images were combined.

An expert system for a local planning environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meester, G.J.; Meester, G.J.

1993-01-01

In this paper, we discuss the design of an Expert System (ES) that supports decision making in a Local Planning System (LPS) environment. The LPS provides the link between a high level factory planning system (rough cut capacity planning and material coordination) and the actual execution of jobs on

Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uhrig, R.E.

1988-01-01

The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

2016-01-01

to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema......Mental disorder is a change of mental or behavioral pattern that causes sufferings and impairs the ability to function in ordinary life. In psychopathology, the assessment methods of mental disorder contain various types of uncertainties associated with signs and symptoms. This study identifies...

The TEX-I real-time expert system, applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmal, N.; Leder, H.J.; Schade, H.J.

1988-01-01

Interatom, a subsidiary company of Siemens, is developing expert systems for the technical domain. These systems are operating in various industrial applications like flexible manufacturing or plant configuration, based on a domain-specific expert system shell, developed by Interatom. Additional projects are focusing on real-time diagnostics, e.g., for nuclear power plants. The authors report in this paper about a diagnosis expert system for the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor SNR-300, which uses new real-time tools, developed within the German TEX-I project (technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis, and process control). The purpose of the system is to support the reactor operators in assessing plant status in real time, based on readings from many sensors. By on-line connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components, and recommended operator response in abnormal conditions. In the present knowledge acquisition and test phase, the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulator is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behavior of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers, and cooling components. Additionally, the system's response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated

Patient competence and professional incompetence: disagreements in capacity assessments in one Australian jurisdiction, and their educational implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Parker, Malcolm

2008-08-01

The determination of capacity to make medical, personal and financial decisions has significant individual and social implications. Medical and other health professionals are traditionally relied on by courts and tribunals to provide clinical and psychometric evidence of the presence or absence of capacity, or competence. Concern has long been expressed over the variability of these assessments. A survey of 285 decisions of the Queensland Guardianship and Assessment Tribunal (GAAT) between 2005 and 2008 was conducted to estimate the incidence of disagreement between health professionals in capacity assessments; to provide examples of conflicting assessments and models of assessment used; and to consider the educational implications of disagreements. While the final capacity determinations by the GAAT appear sound, this case series, and other studies in the capacity literature, strongly suggest the need to improve the education of health professionals, especially doctors, at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, in the practical assessment of capacity as a fundamental clinical skill.

Assessing the Decision-Making Capacity of Terminally Ill Patients with Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolva, Elissa; Rosenfeld, Barry; Saracino, Rebecca

2018-05-01

Despite the clinical, ethical, and legal magnitude of end-of-life decision-making, the capacity of terminally ill patients to make the medical decisions they often face is largely unknown. In practice, clinicians are responsible for determining when their patients are no longer competent to make treatment decisions, yet the accuracy of these assessments is unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore decision-making capacity and its assessment in terminally ill cancer patients. Fifty-five patients with advanced cancer receiving inpatient palliative care and 50 healthy adults were administered the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) to evaluate decision-making capacity with regard to the four most commonly used legal standards: Choice, Understanding, Appreciation, and Reasoning. Participants made a hypothetical treatment decision about whether to accept artificial nutrition and hydration for treatment of cachexia. Participants' physicians independently rated their decision-making capacity. Terminally ill participants were significantly more impaired than healthy adults on all MacCAT-T subscales. Most terminally ill participants were able to express a treatment choice (85.7%), but impairment was common on the Understanding (44.2%), Appreciation (49.0%), and Reasoning (85.4%) subscales. Agreement between physician-rated capacity and performance on the MacCAT-T subscales was poor. The use of the MacCAT-T revealed high rates of decisional impairment in terminally ill participants. Participants' physicians infrequently detected impairment identified by the MacCAT-T. The findings from the present study reinforce the need for engagement in advance care planning for patients with advanced cancer. Copyright © 2018 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

1991-01-01

The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

Rule - based Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deng Xiao-Wen

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Under the trend of increasing installed capacity of wind power, the intelligent fault diagnosis of wind turbine is of great significance to the safe and efficient operation of wind farms. Based on the knowledge of fault diagnosis of wind turbines, this paper builds expert system diagnostic knowledge base by using confidence production rules and expert system self-learning method. In Visual Studio 2013 platform, C # language is selected and ADO.NET technology is used to access the database. Development of Fault Diagnosis Expert System for Wind Turbine. The purpose of this paper is to realize on-line diagnosis of wind turbine fault through human-computer interaction, and to improve the diagnostic capability of the system through the continuous improvement of the knowledge base.

Expert judgement combination using moment methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wisse, Bram; Bedford, Tim; Quigley, John

2008-01-01

Moment methods have been employed in decision analysis, partly to avoid the computational burden that decision models involving continuous probability distributions can suffer from. In the Bayes linear (BL) methodology prior judgements about uncertain quantities are specified using expectation (rather than probability) as the fundamental notion. BL provides a strong foundation for moment methods, rooted in work of De Finetti and Goldstein. The main objective of this paper is to discuss in what way expert assessments of moments can be combined, in a non-Bayesian way, to construct a prior assessment. We show that the linear pool can be justified in an analogous but technically different way to linear pools for probability assessments, and that this linear pool has a very convenient property: a linear pool of experts' assessments of moments is coherent if each of the experts has given coherent assessments. To determine the weights of the linear pool we give a method of performance based weighting analogous to Cooke's classical model and explore its properties. Finally, we compare its performance with the classical model on data gathered in applications of the classical model

Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

Science.gov (United States)

Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

2018-05-01

The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

Social science constructs in ecosystem assessments: revisiting community capacity and community resiliency.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellen M. Donoghue; Victoria E. Sturtevant

2007-01-01

This article explores the development of sociological constructs in community assessment components of large-scale ecosystem assessments. We compare the conceptual and operational development of the constructs of community capacity and community resiliency used in three community assessments in the western United States: the Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team...

Development of an accident management expert system for containment assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.; Sebo, D.E.; Haney, L.N.

1987-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRSC) is sponsoring a program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to develop an accident management expert system. The intended users of the system are the personnel of the NRC Operations Center in Washington, D.C. The expert system will be used to help NRC personnel monitor and evaluate the status and management of the containment during a severe reactor accident. The knowledge base will include severe accident knowledge regarding the maintenance of the critical safety functions, especially containment integrity, during an accident. This paper summarizes the concepts that have been developed for the accident management expert system, and the plans that have been developed for its implementation

Expert validation of a teamwork assessment rubric: A modified Delphi study.

Science.gov (United States)

Parratt, Jenny A; Fahy, Kathleen M; Hutchinson, Marie; Lohmann, Gui; Hastie, Carolyn R; Chaseling, Marilyn; O'Brien, Kylie

2016-01-01

Teamwork is a 'soft skill' employability competence desired by employers. Poor teamwork skills in healthcare have an impact on adverse outcomes. Teamwork skills are rarely the focus of teaching and assessment in undergraduate courses. The TeamUP Rubric is a tool used to teach and evaluate undergraduate students' teamwork skills. Students also use the rubric to give anonymised peer feedback during team-based academic assignments. The rubric's five domains focus on planning, environment, facilitation, conflict management and individual contribution; each domain is grounded in relevant theory. Students earn marks for their teamwork skills; validity of the assessment rubric is critical. To what extent do experts agree that the TeamUP Rubric is a valid assessment of 'teamwork skills'? Modified Delphi technique incorporating Feminist Collaborative Conversations. A heterogeneous panel of 35 professionals with recognised expertise in communications and/or teamwork. Three Delphi rounds using a survey that included the rubric were conducted either face-to-face, by telephone or online. Quantitative analysis yielded item content validity indices (I-CVI); minimum consensus was pre-set at 70%. An average of the I-CVI also yielded sub-scale (domain) (D-CVI/Ave) and scale content validity indices (S-CVI/Ave). After each Delphi round, qualitative data were analysed and interpreted; Feminist Collaborative Conversations by the research team aimed to clarify and confirm consensus about the wording of items on the rubric. Consensus (at 70%) was obtained for all but one behavioural descriptor of the rubric. We modified that descriptor to address expert concerns. The TeamUP Rubric (Version 4) can be considered to be well validated at that level of consensus. The final rubric reflects underpinning theory, with no areas of conceptual overlap between rubric domains. The final TeamUP Rubric arising from this study validly measures individual student teamwork skills and can be used with

An Evolutionary Approach to Adaptive Capacity Assessment: A Case Study of Soufriere, Saint Lucia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

James Ryan Hogarth

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This paper assesses the capacity of Soufriere, Saint Lucia to adapt to climate change. A community-based vulnerability assessment was conducted that employed semi-structured interviews with community members. The results were analysed using the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC framework, which characterises adaptive capacity based on five elements: asset base; institutions and entitlements; knowledge and information; innovation; and flexible forward-looking decision-making and governance. Beyond providing an in-depth analysis of Soufriere’s capacity to adapt to climate change, the paper argues that the elements of the LAC framework largely correspond with an evolutionary perspective on adaptive capacity. However, other evolutionary themes—such as structure, history, path-dependency, scale, agency, conservation of diversity, and the perils of specialisation—should also be taken into account.

The development of ORACLe: a measure of an organisation's capacity to engage in evidence-informed health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Makkar, Steve R; Turner, Tari; Williamson, Anna; Louviere, Jordan; Redman, Sally; Haynes, Abby; Green, Sally; Brennan, Sue

2016-01-14

Evidence-informed policymaking is more likely if organisations have cultures that promote research use and invest in resources that facilitate staff engagement with research. Measures of organisations' research use culture and capacity are needed to assess current capacity, identify opportunities for improvement, and examine the impact of capacity-building interventions. The aim of the current study was to develop a comprehensive system to measure and score organisations' capacity to engage with and use research in policymaking, which we entitled ORACLe (Organisational Research Access, Culture, and Leadership). We used a multifaceted approach to develop ORACLe. Firstly, we reviewed the available literature to identify key domains of organisational tools and systems that may facilitate research use by staff. We interviewed senior health policymakers to verify the relevance and applicability of these domains. This information was used to generate an interview schedule that focused on seven key domains of organisational capacity. The interview was pilot-tested within four Australian policy agencies. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was then undertaken using an expert sample to establish the relative importance of these domains. This data was used to produce a scoring system for ORACLe. The ORACLe interview was developed, comprised of 23 questions addressing seven domains of organisational capacity and tools that support research use, including (1) documented processes for policymaking; (2) leadership training; (3) staff training; (4) research resources (e.g. database access); and systems to (5) generate new research, (6) undertake evaluations, and (7) strengthen relationships with researchers. From the DCE data, a conditional logit model was estimated to calculate total scores that took into account the relative importance of the seven domains. The model indicated that our expert sample placed the greatest importance on domains (2), (3) and (4). We utilised

Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

1998-01-01

Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

Assessing research activity and capacity of community-based organizations: development and pilot testing of an instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Humphries, Debbie L; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Mitchell, Leif; Tian, Terry; Choudhury, Shonali; Fiellin, David A

2014-01-01

Although awareness of the importance of the research capacity of community-based organizations (CBOs) is growing, a uniform framework of the research capacity domains within CBOs has not yet been developed. To develop a framework and instrument (the Community REsearch Activity assessment Tool [CREAT]) for assessing the research activity and capacity of CBOs that incorporates awareness of the different data collection and analysis priorities of CBOs. We conducted a review of existing tools for assessing research capacity to identify key capacity domains. Instrument items were developed through an iterative process with CBO representatives and community researchers. The CREAT was then pilot tested with 30 CBOs. The four primary domains of the CREAT framework include 1) organizational support for research, 2) generalizable experiences, 3) research specific experiences, and 4) funding. Organizations reported a high prevalence of activities in the research-specific experiences domain, including conducting literature reviews (70%), use of research terminology (83%), and primary data collection (100%). Respondents see research findings as important to improve program and service delivery, and to seek funds for new programs and services. Funders, board members, and policymakers are the most important dissemination audiences. The work reported herein advances the field of CBO research capacity by developing a systematic framework for assessing research activity and capacity relevant to the work of CBOs, and by developing and piloting an instrument to assess activity in these domains.

Soil Phosphorus Storage Capacity for Environmental Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vimala D. Nair

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Reliable techniques must be developed to predict phosphorus (P storage and release from soils of uplands, ditches, streams, and wetlands in order to better understand the natural, anthropogenic, and legacy sources of P and their impact on water quality at a field/plot as well as larger scales. A concept called the “safe” soil phosphorus storage capacity (SPSC that is based on a threshold phosphorus saturation ratio (PSR has been developed; the PSR is the molar ratio of P to Fe and Al, and SPSC is a PSR-based calculation of the remaining soil P storage capacity that captures risks arising from previous loading as well as inherently low P sorption capacity of a soil. Zero SPSC amounts to a threshold value below which P runoff or leaching risk increases precipitously. In addition to the use of the PSR/SPSC concept for P risk assessment and management, and its ability to predict isotherm parameters such as the Langmuir strength of bonding, KL, and the equilibrium P concentration, EPC0, this simple, cost-effective, and quantitative approach has the potential to be used as an agronomic tool for more precise application of P for plant uptake.

Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Beheshti

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

2000-01-01

This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

The adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers to climate change in the Northern Region of Ghana

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Majeed Abdul-Razak

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change is expected to adversely affect agricultural production, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa where the agricultural sector forms the backbone of most countries’ economies. This thus holds true for the agriculture sector of the Northern Region of Ghana which is largely rain-fed and dominated by smallholder farmers with minimal livelihood alternatives. The main research question of this paper is how the adaptive capacity to climate change of smallholder farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana can be characterised? The paper proposes an indicator-based framework for assessing the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers in the Northern Region of Ghana along six main determinants of adaptive capacity: economic resources, social capital, awareness and training, technology, infrastructure and institutions. Based on a thorough literature review and qualitative interviews with experts for rural livelihoods and agriculture in the study region, the determinants were ranked and three to five indicators per determinant were selected. The results of the expert interviews show that economic resources, awareness and training as well as technological capacities seem most relevant for smallholder farmers’ adaptive capacity while infrastructure, social capital, and institutions were ranked least important. The study operationalized the indicators in a standardized survey questionnaire and tested it in two agrarian communities in the Northern Region of Ghana. The survey results show the aggregate adaptive capacity of respondents is low. However, disparities in adaptive capacity were recorded among respondents in terms of gender and education. Differentiating between the determinants women farmer show significantly lower capacities in fields of economic resources, technology and knowledge and awareness. This paper recommends resilience building interventions in the study area that target individuals with low adaptive capacities, especially women

Ultimate load capacity assessment of reinforced concrete shell structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Amita; Singh, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Mahajan, S.C.; Kakodkar, A.

1993-01-01

The objective of this study is to develop capability for prediction of ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete shell structures. The present finite element code ULCA (Ultimate Load Capacity Assessment) adopts a degenerate concept of formulating general isoparametric shell element with a layered approach in the thickness direction. Different failure modes such as crushing, tensile cracking and reinforcement yielding are recognised for various problems. The structure fails by crushing of concrete when the concrete strain/stress reaches the ultimate stress or strain of concrete. Material nonlinearities as a result of tension cracking, tension stiffening between reinforcement and concrete in cracked region and yielding of reinforcement are considered along with geometric nonlinearity. Thus with this code it is possible to predict the pressure at which the first cracking, first through thickness cracking, first yielding of reinforcement occurs. After validating the code with few bench mark problems for different failure modes a reinforced concrete nuclear containment is analysed for its ultimate capacity and the results are matched with the published results. Further the ultimate load capacity of outer containment wall of Narora Atomic Power Station is predicted. It is observed that containment fails in membrane region and has a sufficient margin against design pressure. (author). 9 refs., 56 figs., 3 tabs., 1 appendix with 4 tabs

Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian Dahlman

2015-05-01

Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

Science.gov (United States)

Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

2014-01-01

Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

2017-04-01

In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

Novices and Experts in Geoinformatics: the Cognitive Gap.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhilin, M.

2012-04-01

Modern geoinformatics is an extremely powerful tool for problem analysis and decision making in various fields. Currently general public uses geoinformatics predominantly for navigating (GPS) and sharing information about particular places (GoogleMaps, Wikimapia). Communities also use geoinformatics for particular purposes: fans of history use it to correspond historical and actual maps (www.retromap.ru), birdwatchers point places where they met birds (geobirds.com/rangemaps) etc. However the majority of stakeholders local authorities are not aware of advantages and possibilities of geoinformatics. The same problem is observed for students. At the same time many professional geoinformatic tools are developed, but sometimes the experts even can't explain their purpose to non-experts. So the question is how to shrink the gap between experts and non-experts in understanding and application of geoinformatics. We think that this gap has a cognitive basis. According to modern cognitive theories (Shiffrin-Atkinson and descending) the information primary has to pass through the perceptual filter that cuts off the information that seems to be irrelevant. The mind estimates the relevance implicitly (unconsciously) basing on previous knowledge and judgments what is important. Then it comes to the working memory which is used (a) for proceeding and (b) for problem solving. The working memory has limited capacity and can operate only with about 7 objects simultaneously. Then information passes to the long-term memory that is of unlimited capacity. There it is stored as more or less complex structures with associative links. When necessary it is extracted into the working memory. If great amount of information is linked ("chunked") the working memory operates with it as one object of seven thus overcoming the limitations of the working memory capacity. To adopt any information it should (a) pass through the perceptual filter, (b) not to overload the working memory and (c) to be

Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

Science.gov (United States)

Fredouille, Corinne; Pouchoulin, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Revis, Joana; Bonastre, Jean-François; Giovanni, Antoine

2009-12-01

This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists). The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices), rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0-3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Corinne Fredouille

2009-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists. The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices, rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0–3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

Expert system for USNRC emergency response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

1986-01-01

The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRC's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wight, L.H.

1980-05-01

Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue.

Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wight, L.H.

1980-05-01

Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue

Serial Assessment of Trauma Care Capacity in Ghana in 2004 and 2014.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Barclay T; Quansah, Robert; Gyedu, Adam; Boakye, Godfred; Abantanga, Francis; Ankomah, James; Donkor, Peter; Mock, Charles

2016-02-01

Trauma care capacity assessments in developing countries have generated evidence to support advocacy, detailed baseline capabilities, and informed targeted interventions. However, serial assessments to determine the effect of capacity improvements or changes over time have rarely been performed. To compare the availability of trauma care resources in Ghana between 2004 and 2014 to assess the effects of a decade of change in the trauma care landscape and derive recommendations for improvements. Capacity assessments were performed using direct inspection and structured interviews derived from the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care. In Ghana, 10 hospitals in 2004 and 32 hospitals in 2014 were purposively sampled to represent those most likely to care for injuries. Clinical staff, administrators, logistic/procurement officers, and technicians/biomedical engineers who interacted, directly or indirectly, with trauma care resources were interviewed at each hospital. Availability of items for trauma care was rated from 0 (complete absence) to 3 (fully available). Factors contributing to deficiency in 2014 were determined for items rated lower than 3. Each item rated lower than 3 at a specific hospital was defined as a hospital-item deficiency. Scores for total number of hospital-item deficiencies were derived for each contributing factor. There were significant improvements in mean ratings for trauma care resources: district-level (smaller) hospitals had a mean rating of 0.8 for all items in 2004 vs 1.3 in 2014 (P = .002); regional (larger) hospitals had a mean rating of 1.1 in 2004 vs 1.4 in 2014 (P = .01). However, a number of critical deficiencies remain (eg, chest tubes, diagnostics, and orthopedic and neurosurgical care; mean ratings ≤ 2). Leading contributing factors were item absence (503 hospital-item deficiencies), lack of training (335 hospital-item deficiencies), and stockout of consumables (137 hospital-item deficiencies

Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert's View on Welfare Measures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

2017-01-01

are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...... between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due...

Price competition between an expert and a non-expert

OpenAIRE

Bouckaert, J.M.C.; Degryse, H.A.

1998-01-01

This paper characterizes price competition between an expert and a non-expert. In contrast with the expert, the non-expert’s repair technology is not always successful. Consumers visit the expert after experiencing an unsuccessful match at the non-expert. This re-entry affects the behaviour of both sellers. For low enough probability of successful repair at the non-expert, all consumers first visit the non-expert, and a ‘timid-pricing’ equilibrium results. If the non-expert’s repair technolog...

Enhancing Transparency in Multidisciplinary Expert Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hukki, Kristiina; Pulkkinen, Urho

2003-01-01

understanding the models help in the integration of the knowledge produced by different disciplines and in the reconciliation of the requirements of different parties. They also improve the interaction between the domain experts and the experts of safety assessment. Better awareness of the knowledge-related dependencies enhance the unity of the experts' safety conceptions and contributes to more unified communicating practices in the organization. On the basis of its holistic and integrating character, the safety assessment seems to provide a common perspective to the modelling of the work processes. Using it as a tool for understanding the significance of the safety-critical aspects of work will probably make it more accessible for the domain experts. The safety assessment aims at results, which are expected to be transdisciplinary by nature. It can be assumed, that the common conceptualization and modelling with the help of it facilitate the development from multidisciplinarity to true transdisciplinarity in the expert work

Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2016-09-01

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle

2016-01-01

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

Expert software for accident identification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

2003-01-01

Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

Self vs expert assessment of technical and non-technical skills in high fidelity simulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Arora, Sonal; Miskovic, Danilo; Hull, Louise; Moorthy, Krishna; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Johannsson, Helgi; Gautama, Sanjay; Kneebone, Roger; Sevdalis, Nick

2011-10-01

Accurate assessment is imperative for learning, feedback and progression. The aim of this study was to examine whether surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical and nontechnical skills compared with expert faculty members' assessments. Twenty-five surgeons performed a laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) in a simulated operating room. Technical and nontechnical performance was assessed by participants and faculty members using the validated Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) and the Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons scale (NOTSS). Assessment of technical performance correlated between self and faculty members' ratings for experienced (median score, 30.0 vs 31.0; ρ = .831; P = .001) and inexperienced (median score, 22.0 vs 28.0; ρ = .761; P = .003) surgeons. Assessment of nontechnical skills between self and faculty members did not correlate for experienced surgeons (median score, 8.0 vs 10.5; ρ = -.375; P = .229) or their more inexperienced counterparts (median score, 9.0 vs 7.0; ρ = -.018; P = .953). Surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical skills in virtual reality LC. Conversely, formal assessment with faculty members' input is required for nontechnical skills, for which surgeons lack insight into their behaviours. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Assessing fistula and obstetrical surgical capacity in South Kivu, DRC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen C. Morris

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The Democratic Republic of Congo has suffered from decades of conflict and poverty. The Eastern DRC, in particular, continues to be a region dominated by instability, resulting in a fragmented health system. Governments and agencies interested in working towards improving health in the region are often challenged by an absence of knowledge of health metrics, limited capacity for health care delivery and overwhelming needs. The Harvard Humanitarian Initiative and Engender Health needs assessment, outlined in this report, demonstrates an effort to better understand the current state of surgical capacity in the region with an emphasis on needs and opportunities related to fistula repair.

Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

Science.gov (United States)

This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

Using information theory to assess the communicative capacity of circulating microRNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Finn, Nnenna A; Searles, Charles D

2013-10-11

The discovery of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) and their transport modalities (i.e., microparticles, exosomes, proteins and lipoproteins) has sparked theories regarding their role in intercellular communication. Here, we assessed the information transfer capacity of different miRNA transport modalities in human serum by utilizing basic principles of information theory. Zipf Statistics were calculated for each of the miRNA transport modalities identified in human serum. Our analyses revealed that miRNA-mediated information transfer is redundant, as evidenced by negative Zipf's Statistics with magnitudes greater than one. In healthy subjects, the potential communicative capacity of miRNA in complex with circulating proteins was significantly lower than that of miRNA encapsulated in circulating microparticles and exosomes. Moreover, the presence of coronary heart disease significantly lowered the communicative capacity of all circulating miRNA transport modalities. To assess the internal organization of circulating miRNA signals, Shannon's zero- and first-order entropies were calculated. Microparticles (MPs) exhibited the lowest Shannon entropic slope, indicating a relatively high capacity for information transfer. Furthermore, compared to the other miRNA transport modalities, MPs appeared to be the most efficient at transferring miRNA to cultured endothelial cells. Taken together, these findings suggest that although all transport modalities have the capacity for miRNA-based information transfer, MPs may be the simplest and most robust way to achieve miRNA-based signal transduction in sera. This study presents a novel method for analyzing the quantitative capacity of miRNA-mediated information transfer while providing insight into the communicative characteristics of distinct circulating miRNA transport modalities. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Conceptual and Ethical Problems in the Mental Capacity Act 2005: An Interrogation of the Assessment Process

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Gibson

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Central to the Mental Capacity Act 2005 (MCA is the claim that a conferral of incapacity may not be based on the wisdom of a decision alone. This paper problematizes this position. Values-based medicine is drawn on to explore the process of capacity assessment, highlighting the presence of preconceptions throughout assessment. Two cases before the Court of Protection are examined to bring into focus the complexity of conducting assessment without reference to wisdom. The paper proposes that every stage in the assessment of capacity is undertaken with reference to preconceptions and that an acknowledgement of these, along with transparency about when they are to be employed, would allow for greater clarity about what the MCA demands of practitioners.

Use of expert systems in nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-02-01

One dominant aspect of improvement in safe nuclear power plant operation is the very high speed in the development and introduction of computer technologies. This development commenced recently when advanced control technology was incorporated into the nuclear industry. This led to an increasing implementation of information displays, annunciator windows and other devices inside the control room, eventually overburdening the control room operator with detailed information. Expert systems are a further step in this direction being designed to apply large knowledge bases to solve practical problems. These ''intelligent'' systems have to incorporate enough knowledge to reach expert levels of importance and represent a very advanced man-machine interface. The aims of the Technical Committee were addressed by the three Working Groups and summarized in Sections 2, 3 and 4 of this report. Section 2 summarizes the results and discussions on the current capabilities of expert systems and identifies features for the future development and use of Expert Systems in Nuclear Power Plants. Section 3 provides an overview of the discussions and investigations into the current status of Expert Systems in NPPs. This section develops a method for assessing the overall benefit of different applications and recommends a broad strategy for priority developments of Expert Systems in NPPs. Section 4 assesses the overall use of PSA type studies in Expert Systems in NPPs and identifies specific features to be adopted in the design of these systems in future applications. The conclusions of the three Working Groups are presented in Section 5. The 15 papers presented at the meeting formed the Annex of this document. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs, tabs and pictures

Geriatric Assessment-Guided Care Processes for Older Adults: A Delphi Consensus of Geriatric Oncology Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohile, Supriya Gupta; Velarde, Carla; Hurria, Arti; Magnuson, Allison; Lowenstein, Lisa; Pandya, Chintan; O'Donovan, Anita; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Dale, William

2015-09-01

Structured care processes that provide a framework for how oncologists can incorporate geriatric assessment (GA) into clinical practice could improve outcomes for vulnerable older adults with cancer, a growing population at high risk of toxicity from cancer treatment. We sought to obtain consensus from an expert panel on the use of GA in clinical practice and to develop algorithms of GA-guided care processes. The Delphi technique, a well-recognized structured and reiterative process to reach consensus, was used. Participants were geriatric oncology experts who attended NIH-funded U13 or Cancer and Aging Research Group conferences. Consensus was defined as an interquartile range of 2 or more units, or 66.7% or greater, selecting a utility/helpfulness rating of 7 or greater on a 10-point Likert scale. For nominal data, consensus was defined as agreement among 66.7% or more of the group. From 33 invited, 30 participants completed all 3 rounds. Most experts (75%) used GA in clinical care, and the remainder were involved in geriatric oncology research. The panel met consensus that "all patients aged 75 years or older and those who are younger with age-related health concerns" should undergo GA and that all domains (function, physical performance, comorbidity/polypharmacy, cognition, nutrition, psychological status, and social support) should be included. Consensus was met for how GA could guide nononcologic interventions and cancer treatment decisions. Algorithms for GA-guided care processes were developed. This Delphi investigation of geriatric oncology experts demonstrated that GA should be performed for older patients with cancer to guide care processes. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

2015-10-01

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Science.gov (United States)

Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

2015-01-01

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Experts Opinion on the Use of Normative Data for Functional Capacity Evaluation in Occupational and Rehabilitation Medicine and Disability Claims

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.

2014-01-01

Purpose Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. Methods

Assessment of the Sustainability Capacity of a Coordinated Approach to Chronic Disease Prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Combs, Todd; Polk, LaShaun; Dexter, Sarah

2017-12-07

This article outlines some factors that influenced the sustainability capacity of a coordinated approach to chronic disease prevention in state and territory health departments. This study involved a cross-sectional design and mixed-methods approach. Quantitative data were collected using the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool (PSAT), a 40-item multiple-choice instrument that assesses 8 domains of sustainability capacity (environmental support, funding stability, partnerships, organizational capacity, program evaluation, program adaptation, communications, and strategic planning). Qualitative data were collected via phone interviews. The PSAT was administered to staff and stakeholders from public health departments in 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, who were involved in the implementation of coordinated chronic disease programs. Phone interviews were conducted with program coordinators in each state. Sustainability score patterns and state-level categorical results, as well as strengths and opportunities for improvement across the 8 program sustainability domains, were explored. On average, programs reported the strongest sustainability capacity in the domains of program adaptation, environmental support, and organizational capacity, while funding stability, strategic planning, and communications yielded lowest scores, indicating weakest capacity. Scores varied the most by state in environmental support and strategic planning. The PSAT results highlight the process through which states approached the sustainability of coordinated chronic disease initiatives. This process included an initial focus on program evaluation and partnerships with transfer of priority to long-term strategic planning, communications, and funding stability to further establish coordinated chronic disease efforts. Qualitative interviews provided further context to PSAT results, indicating that leadership, communications, partnerships, funding stability, and policy

Enhancing an adaptive e-learning system with didactic test assessment using an expert system

Science.gov (United States)

Bradáč, Vladimír; Kostolányová, Kateřina

2017-07-01

The paper deals with a follow-up research on intelligent tutoring systems that were studied in authors' previous papers from the point of view of describing their advantages. In this paper, the authors make use of the fuzzy logic expert system, which assesses student's knowledge, and integrate it into the intelligent tutoring system called Barborka. The goal is to create an even more personal student's study plan, which is tailored both to student's sensory/learning preferences and the level of knowledge of the given subject.

Dementia, Decision Making, and Capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Darby, R Ryan; Dickerson, Bradford C

After participating in this activity, learners should be better able to:• Assess the neuropsychological literature on decision making and the medical and legal assessment of capacity in patients with dementia• Identify the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments for patients with dementia ABSTRACT: Medical and legal professionals face the challenge of assessing capacity and competency to make medical, legal, and financial decisions in dementia patients with impaired decision making. While such assessments have classically focused on the capacity for complex reasoning and executive functions, research in decision making has revealed that motivational and metacognitive processes are also important. We first briefly review the neuropsychological literature on decision making and on the medical and legal assessment of capacity. Next, we discuss the limitations of integrating findings from decision-making research into capacity assessments, including the group-to-individual inference problem, the unclear role of neuroimaging in capacity assessments, and the lack of capacity measures that integrate important facets of decision making. Finally, we present several case examples where we attempt to demonstrate the potential benefits and important limitations of using decision-making research to aid in capacity determinations.

An Assessment of Epidemiology Capacity in a One Health Team at the Provincial Level in Thailand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Soawapak Hinjoy

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A multi-sectoral core epidemiology capacity assessment was conducted in provinces that implemented One Health services in order to assess the efficacy of a One Health approach in Thailand. In order to conduct the assessment, four provinces were randomly selected as a study group from a total of 19 Thai provinces that are currently using a One Health approach. As a control group, four additional provinces that never implemented a One Health approach were also sampled. The provincial officers were interviewed on the epidemiologic capacity of their respective provinces. The average score of epidemiologic capacity in the provinces implementing the One Health approach was 66.45%, while the provinces that did not implement this approach earned a score of 54.61%. The epidemiologic capacity of surveillance systems in provinces that utilized the One Health approach earned higher scores in comparison to provinces that did not implement the approach (75.00% vs. 53.13%, p-value 0.13. Although none of the capacity evaluations showed significant differences between the two groups, we found evidence that provinces implementing the One Health approach gained higher scores in both surveillance and outbreak investigation capacities. This may be explained by more efficient capacity when using a One Health approach, specifically in preventing, protecting, and responding to threats in local communities.

The Use of Telemedicine Access to Schools to Facilitate Expert Assessment of Children with Asthma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David A. Bergman

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Research has shown that access to an asthma specialist improves asthma outcomes. We hypothesized that we could improve access to expert asthma care through a telemedicine link between an asthma specialist and a school-based asthma program. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 3 urban schools to ascertain the feasibility of using an asthma-focused telemedicine solution. Each subject was seen by an asthma expert at 0, 8, and 32 weeks. The assessment and recommendations for care were sent to the primary care physician (PCP and parents were told to contact their physician for follow-up care. Eighty three subjects participated in the study. Subjects experienced improvement (P<.05 in family social activities and the number of asthma attacks. Ninety four percent of subjects rated the program as good or excellent. This study demonstrates the feasibility and acceptance of a school-based asthma program using a telemedicine link to an asthma specialist.

Expert panels as a reference standard in orthodontic research: An assessment of published methods and reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempesi, Evangelia; Toulia, Electra; Pandis, Nikolaos

2017-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the expert panel methodology applied in orthodontics and its reporting quality. Additionally, the relationship between the reporting quality and a range of variables was explored. PubMed was searched for orthodontic studies in which the final diagnosis or assessment was made by 2 or more experts published up to March 16, 2015. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using an established modified checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the total score was assessed using univariable linear regression. We identified 237 studies with a mean score of 9.97 (SD, 1.12) out of a maximum of 15. Critical information about panel methodology was missing in all studies. The panel composition differed substantially across studies, ranging from 2 to 646 panel members, with large variations in the expertise represented. Only 17 studies (7.2%) reported sample size calculations to justify the panel size. Panel members were partly blinded in 65 (27.4%) studies. Most studies failed to report which statistic was used to compute intrarater (65.8%) and interrater (66.2%) agreements. Journal type (nonorthodontic: β, 0.23; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.54 compared with orthodontic), publication year (β, 0; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02 for each additional year), number of authors (1-3: β, 0.30; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.74 compared with at least 6; 4-5: β, 0.18; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.33 compared with at least 6), and number of centers involved (single: β, 0.20; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.54 compared with multicenter) were not significant predictors of improved reporting. Studies published in Asia and Australia had significantly lower scores compared with those published in Europe (β, -0.54; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.17). Formal guidelines on methodology and reporting of studies involving expert panels are required. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

NESSUS/EXPERT - An expert system for probabilistic structural analysis methods

Science.gov (United States)

Millwater, H.; Palmer, K.; Fink, P.

1988-01-01

An expert system (NESSUS/EXPERT) is presented which provides assistance in using probabilistic structural analysis methods. NESSUS/EXPERT is an interactive menu-driven expert system that provides information to assist in the use of the probabilistic finite element code NESSUS/FEM and the fast probability integrator. NESSUS/EXPERT was developed with a combination of FORTRAN and CLIPS, a C language expert system tool, to exploit the strengths of each language.

An expert system for USNRC emergency response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sebo, D.E.; Bray, M.A.; King, M.A.

1986-01-01

The Reactor Safety Assessment System (RSAS) is an expert system under development for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC). RSAS is intended for use at the NRO's Operations Center in the event of a serious incident at a licensed nuclear power plant. RSAS is a situation assessment expert system which uses plant parametric data to generate conclusions for use by the NRC Reactor Safety Team. RSAS uses multiple rule bases and plant specific setpoint files in order to be applicable to all licensed power plants. RSAS currently covers several generic reactor types and power plants within those classes

[Criteria for forensic medical evaluation of professional working capacity loss].

Science.gov (United States)

Kapustin, A V; Tomilin, V V; Ol'khovik, V P; Panfilenko, O A; Serebriakova, V G

2000-01-01

The main and additional criteria used in evaluation (in percent) of loss of professional working capacity are characterized. Criteria common for forensic medical and medical social expert evaluations and differences between them are discussed. These differences are due to the fact that forensic medical expert evaluations are based on the Civil and Civil Processual Codes of the Russian Federation but not on the departamental norm-setting documents.

Building capacity for Health Impact Assessment: Training outcomes from the United States

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Schuchter, Joseph [Berkeley, CA (United States); Rutt, Candace, E-mail: awr8@cdc.gov [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity, 4770 Buford Highway MS/F-77, Atlanta, GA 30341 (United States); Satariano, William A. [University of California Berkeley, School of Public Health, Division of Community Health and Human Development, Berkeley, CA (United States); Seto, Edmund [University of Washington, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

2015-01-15

Background: Despite the continued growth of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the US, there is little research on HIA capacity-building. A comprehensive study of longer-term training outcomes may reveal opportunities for improving capacity building activities and HIA practice. Methods: We conducted in-depth interviews with HIA trainees in the United States to assess their outcomes and needs. Using a training evaluation framework, we measured outcomes across a spectrum of reaction, learning, behavior and results. Results: From 2006 to 2012, four organizations trained over 2200 people in at least 75 in-person HIA trainings in 29 states. We interviewed 48 trainees, selected both randomly and purposefully. The mean duration between training and interview was 3.4 years. Trainees reported that their training objectives were met, especially when relevant case-studies were used. They established new collaborations at the trainings and maintained them. Training appeared to catalyze more holistic thinking and practice, including a range of HIA-related activities. Many trainees disseminated what they learned and engaged in components of HIA, even without dedicated funding. Going forward, trainees need assistance with quantitative methods, project management, community engagement, framing recommendations, and evaluation. Conclusions: The research revealed opportunities for a range of HIA stakeholders to refine and coordinate training resources, apply a competency framework and leverage complimentary workforce development efforts, and sensitize and build the capacity of communities. - Highlights: • We interviewed HIA trainees in the United States to assess longer-term outcomes. • Training appeared to catalyze a range of beneficial partnerships and activities. • Trainees reported outstanding needs for specific skills and competencies. • There are various opportunities to improve training and capacity-building.

Building capacity for Health Impact Assessment: Training outcomes from the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schuchter, Joseph; Rutt, Candace; Satariano, William A.; Seto, Edmund

2015-01-01

Background: Despite the continued growth of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the US, there is little research on HIA capacity-building. A comprehensive study of longer-term training outcomes may reveal opportunities for improving capacity building activities and HIA practice. Methods: We conducted in-depth interviews with HIA trainees in the United States to assess their outcomes and needs. Using a training evaluation framework, we measured outcomes across a spectrum of reaction, learning, behavior and results. Results: From 2006 to 2012, four organizations trained over 2200 people in at least 75 in-person HIA trainings in 29 states. We interviewed 48 trainees, selected both randomly and purposefully. The mean duration between training and interview was 3.4 years. Trainees reported that their training objectives were met, especially when relevant case-studies were used. They established new collaborations at the trainings and maintained them. Training appeared to catalyze more holistic thinking and practice, including a range of HIA-related activities. Many trainees disseminated what they learned and engaged in components of HIA, even without dedicated funding. Going forward, trainees need assistance with quantitative methods, project management, community engagement, framing recommendations, and evaluation. Conclusions: The research revealed opportunities for a range of HIA stakeholders to refine and coordinate training resources, apply a competency framework and leverage complimentary workforce development efforts, and sensitize and build the capacity of communities. - Highlights: • We interviewed HIA trainees in the United States to assess longer-term outcomes. • Training appeared to catalyze a range of beneficial partnerships and activities. • Trainees reported outstanding needs for specific skills and competencies. • There are various opportunities to improve training and capacity-building

NATIONAL CAPACITY SELF ASSESSMENT FOR NON-ANNEX I NATIONS: THE CASE OF LEBANON

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farid B. Chaaban

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Countries, both developed and developing, are called on to identify, through self assessments, their priority environmental issues such as mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, combating deforestation, promoting sustainable land and water management, and minimizing their vulnerabilities to the impact of climate change. Root cause analysis is conducted to determine the major barriers and institutional capacities. This papers presents capacity constraints in national priority issues typically encountered in developing or non-annex one nations, with the national capacity self assessment of Lebanon taken as a case study. The analysis of the information has identified a number of achievements and difficulties related to the fulfillment of the commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The common priority issues are national action plan for GHG abatement, vulnerability and adaptation, research and systematic observation, technology transfer, and education and public awareness. Root cause analysis related to priority issues has been carried out during which the causes and impacts of the constraints have been identified. The corresponding assessment matrices are also presented. Lack of financial resources is found to be the constraint facing priority issues.

Developing a Capacity Assessment Framework for Marine Logistics Groups

Science.gov (United States)

2017-02-20

Corps, 2015; and 1st Marine Logistics Group, 2015. RAND RR1572-2.3 1st FSSG Headquarters Regiment Security Company CLR-1 CLR-15 7th ESB 1st Medical... Companies . Supply and maintenance battalions form the bulk of CLR-15. The Combat Logistics Companies are small, task-organized companies that support Marine...under- standing logistics capacity as it pertains to informing decisions to improve efficiencies and reduce costs . Most often these assessments of

Expert System Development for Urban Fire Hazard Assessment. Study Case: Kendari City, Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Taridala, S.; Yudono, A.; Ramli, M. I.; Akil, A.

2017-08-01

Kendari City is a coastal urban region with the smallest area as well as the largest population in Southeast Sulawesi. Fires in Kendari City had rather frequently occurred and caused numerous material losses. This study aims to develop a model of urban fire risk and fire station site assessment. The model is developed using Expert Systems with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The high risk of fire area is the area which of high building density with combustible material, not crossed by arterial nor collector road. The fire station site should be appropriately close by high risk of fire area, located on arterial road and near with potential water resource.

Expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haldy, P.A.

1988-01-01

The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

Structural capacity assessment of a generic pre-stressed concrete containment structure under aircraft impact

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iliev, Alexander

2013-01-01

The studied containment expressed adequate capacity to resist impact loads in the upper range of the studied diapason. The aircraft impact capacity of the containment for impact in the upper part of the cylindrical shell is about 25‐30% higher than the capacity for impact in the middle part of the cylindrical shell. The obtained fragility curves reefed to MoA can be then used for various additional calculations in the safety assessment of nuclear facilities under aircraft impact

A Child's Concept of Pain: An International Survey of Pediatric Pain Experts.

Science.gov (United States)

Pate, Joshua W; Hush, Julia M; Hancock, Mark J; Moseley, G Lorimer; Butler, David S; Simons, Laura E; Pacey, Verity

2018-01-15

A child's 'concept of pain' refers to how they understand what pain actually is, what function pain serves, and what biological processes are thought to underpin it. We aimed to determine pediatric pain experts' opinions of: (1) the importance and usefulness of assessing a child's concept of pain in clinical and/or research settings; (2) the usefulness of the content of items within currently published adult-targeted resources for assessing a child's concept of pain; and (3) important domains of a child's concept of pain to assess. Forty-nine pediatric pain experts (response rate = 75.4%) completed an online survey. Descriptive statistics and frequency of responses were analyzed. Experts from all included disciplines reported that assessing a child's concept of pain is important and useful both clinically and in a research setting (>80% reported very or extremely useful for each item). Experts considered that the content of 13 items from currently published adult-targeted resources was useful, but the wording was too complex for children aged 8-12 years. Experts considered that all seven of the proposed domains of a child's concept of pain was important to assess. The findings can be used to inform the development of an assessment tool for a child's concept of pain.

Use of satiety peptides in assessing the satiating capacity of foods

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mars, M.; Stafleu, A.; Graaf, de C.

2012-01-01

Foods differ in their satiating capacity. Satiety peptides may help to provide evidence for biological mechanisms behind these differences. The aim of this paper was to discuss the physiological relevance of three individual appetite peptides, i.e. CCK, GLP-1 and PYY, in assessing the satiating

Expert elicitation and the problem of detecting undeclared activities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pilat, Joseph F.; Sylvester, Kori Budlong; Stanbro, William D.

2002-01-01

Measures applicable to the detection of undeclared activities are not well established, and their effectiveness is uncertain. To detect clandestine paths, the IAEA is still developing processes and procedures. As the Agency gains experience with new measures and with integrated safeguards, dealing with such problems may become more experience-based and perhaps more closely parallel the process with current safeguards where detection probabilities for the measures to be utilized on declared paths are well characterized. Whether or not this point will be reached for undeclared and mixed paths, the only tool that appears suitable at present for the purpose of generating a reasonable detection probability that can over time be tested against reality and, if necessary, adjusted is formal expert judgment, or expert elicitation. Formal expert elicitation is a structured process that makes use of people knowledgeable in certain areas to make assessments. To provide a 'proof of principle' of this methodology for presentation to the Agency, experts in nuclear technology, nonproliferation, safeguards and open source information, as well as in formal expert elicitation processes, engaged in three illustrative expert elicitations on assessing information analysis as a means to detect undeclared activities. These elicitations were successful. This paper will discuss the process of and issues raised by the elicitations.

A method for using expert judgement in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Holmberg, J.

1997-03-01

The report discusses an expert judgement methodology development for applications at all levels of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). The main applications are expected to be at PSA-levels 1 and 2. The method consists of several phases, including the selection and training of the experts, elicitation of experts' judgements, probabilistic modeling and combination of experts' judgements and documentation of the judgement process. The expert training and elicitation process is rather similar to that applied in the NUREG-1150 study. The combination of experts judgements is based on a Bayesian framework utilizing hierarchic models. The posterior distributions of the variables under analysis can be interpreted as a Bayesian counterpart of the combined or aggregated (consensus) distributions, and they are determined by applying Markov chain Monte-Carlo methods. The properties of the method are illustrated by some simple examples. The method is tested in a case study belonging to the benchmark exercise on the use of expert judgement in level 2 PSA, organized as a concerted action of European Commission Fourth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety. (14 refs.)

Experts' Views Regarding the Conceptualization of Narcissism.

Science.gov (United States)

Ackerman, Robert A; Hands, Aaron J; Donnellan, M Brent; Hopwood, Christopher J; Witt, Edward A

2017-06-01

There is debate over the definition of narcissism across social/personality and clinical psychology. The current article aims to quantify the level of disagreement by measuring experts' opinions concerning the attributes most central to narcissism. Accordingly, we developed a comprehensive list of attributes associated with narcissism and had 49 self-identified experts (among them 17 women, 23 psychologists from clinical psychology and 22 from social/personality psychology) rate these characteristics and provide their opinions on several issues related to the conceptualization of narcissism. Experts generally believe that the grandiose features of narcissism are more central than the vulnerable features. However, differences between clinical and social/personality psychologists were evident, especially regarding the relevance of self-esteem. Given the results, we suggest that researchers specify the kind of narcissism being assessed in a given study and consider using assessments of the full range of narcissistic features in future research to provide a more comprehensive perspective on the construct.

What is an expert? A systems perspective on expertise

Science.gov (United States)

Caley, Michael Julian; O'Leary, Rebecca A; Fisher, Rebecca; Low-Choy, Samantha; Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

2014-01-01

Expert knowledge is a valuable source of information with a wide range of research applications. Despite the recent advances in defining expert knowledge, little attention has been given to how to view expertise as a system of interacting contributory factors for quantifying an individual's expertise. We present a systems approach to expertise that accounts for many contributing factors and their inter-relationships and allows quantification of an individual's expertise. A Bayesian network (BN) was chosen for this purpose. For illustration, we focused on taxonomic expertise. The model structure was developed in consultation with taxonomists. The relative importance of the factors within the network was determined by a second set of taxonomists (supra-experts) who also provided validation of the model structure. Model performance was assessed by applying the model to hypothetical career states of taxonomists designed to incorporate known differences in career states for model testing. The resulting BN model consisted of 18 primary nodes feeding through one to three higher-order nodes before converging on the target node (Taxonomic Expert). There was strong consistency among node weights provided by the supra-experts for some nodes, but not others. The higher-order nodes, “Quality of work” and “Total productivity”, had the greatest weights. Sensitivity analysis indicated that although some factors had stronger influence in the outer nodes of the network, there was relatively equal influence of the factors leading directly into the target node. Despite the differences in the node weights provided by our supra-experts, there was good agreement among assessments of our hypothetical experts that accurately reflected differences we had specified. This systems approach provides a way of assessing the overall level of expertise of individuals, accounting for multiple contributory factors, and their interactions. Our approach is adaptable to other situations where it

Expert systems and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beltracchi, L.

1990-01-01

The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

Speech-language pathologists' contribution to the assessment of decision-making capacity in aphasia: a survey of common practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Aldous, Kerryn; Tolmie, Rhiannon; Worrall, Linda; Ferguson, Alison

2014-06-01

Speech-language pathologists' scope of practice is currently unclear in relation to their contribution to the multi-disciplinary assessment of decision-making capacity for clients with aphasia and related neurogenic communication disorders. The primary aim of the current research study was to investigate the common practices of speech-language pathologists involved in assessments of decision-making capacity. The study was completed through the use of an online survey. There were 51 of 59 respondents who indicated involvement in evaluations of decision-making. Involvement in this kind of assessment was most commonly reported by speech-language pathologists working in inpatient acute and rehabilitation settings. Respondents reported using a variety of formal and informal assessment methods in their contributions to capacity assessment. Discussion with multidisciplinary team members was reported to have the greatest influence on their recommendations. Speech-language pathologists reported that they were dissatisfied with current protocols for capacity assessments in their workplace and indicated they would benefit from further education and training in this area. The findings of this study are discussed in light of their implications for speech-language pathology practice.

Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

2011-01-01

Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

Expert Systems

OpenAIRE

Lucas, P.J.F.

2005-01-01

Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events: Expert judgment elicitation. Part 1: Expert panel results. Part 2: Project staff results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wheeler, T A; Cramond, W R [Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S C [University of Hawii at Hilo (United States); Unwin, S D [Brookhaven National Laboratory (United States)

1989-04-01

Quantitative modeling techniques have limitations as to the resolution of important issues in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Not all issues can be resolved via the existing set of methods such as fault trees, event trees, statistical analyses, data collection, and computer simulation. Therefore, an expert judgment process was developed to address issues perceived as important to risk in the NUREG-1150 analysis but which could not be resolved with existing techniques. This process was applied to several issues that could significantly affect the internal event core damage frequencies of the PRAs performed on six light water reactors. Detailed descriptions of these issues and the results of the expert judgment elicitation are reported here, as well as an explanation of the methodology used and the procedure followed in performing the overall elicitation task. The process is time-consuming and expensive. However, the results are very useful, and represent an improvement over the draft NUREG-1150 analysis in the areas of expert selection, elicitation training, issue selection and presentation, elicitation of judgment and aggregation of results. The results are presented in two parts. Part documents the expert panel elicitations, where the most important issues were presented to a panel of experts convened from throughout the nuclear power risk assessment community. Part 2 documents the process by which the project staff performed expert judgment on other important issues, using the project staff as panel members. (author)

Expert opinion on landslide susceptibility elicted by probabilistic inversion from scenario rankings

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Katy; Dashwood, Claire; Lark, Murray

2016-04-01

For many natural hazards the opinion of experts, with experience in assessing susceptibility under different circumstances, is a valuable source of information on which to base risk assessments. This is particularly important where incomplete process understanding, and limited data, limit the scope to predict susceptibility by mechanistic or statistical modelling. The expert has a tacit model of a system, based on their understanding of processes and their field experience. This model may vary in quality, depending on the experience of the expert. There is considerable interest in how one may elicit expert understanding by a process which is transparent and robust, to provide a basis for decision support. One approach is to provide experts with a set of scenarios, and then to ask them to rank small overlapping subsets of these with respect to susceptibility. Methods of probabilistic inversion have been used to compute susceptibility scores for each scenario, implicit in the expert ranking. It is also possible to model these scores as functions of measurable properties of the scenarios. This approach has been used to assess susceptibility of animal populations to invasive diseases, to assess risk to vulnerable marine environments and to assess the risk in hypothetical novel technologies for food production. We will present the results of a study in which a group of geologists with varying degrees of expertise in assessing landslide hazards were asked to rank sets of hypothetical simplified scenarios with respect to land slide susceptibility. We examine the consistency of their rankings and the importance of different properties of the scenarios in the tacit susceptibility model that their rankings implied. Our results suggest that this is a promising approach to the problem of how experts can communicate their tacit model of uncertain systems to those who want to make use of their expertise.

Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elham Dadgar

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

1982-05-01

This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

Capacity Development in an Undergraduate Nursing Program in Vietnam

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sunjoo Kang

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Background: Nurses are an essential human resource to ensure a healthy population and support the socio-economic development. However, little research has focused on the capacity development of nurses.Objective: The performance of a capacity development project for an undergraduate nursing program in Vietnam was reviewed to share lessons.Design: A descriptive case report.Setting: A baccalaureate nursing program in Vietnam from June 2014 to June 2016.Methods: A case report was analyzed in terms of the project's process, and the outcomes of 2 years' activities were evaluated.Results: Practice-based curriculum redesign and two basic nursing subjects were developed after five rounds of curriculum workshops. To improve application efficiency, two nursing experts were dispatched to provide instructions regarding the application of the new subjects. Three candidates were invited to complete their master's and doctoral studies in Korea. An advanced nursing education environment was supported with simulation labs equipped within a ubiquitous network. The result of experts' evaluation was excellent by every criterion of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development—Development Assistance Committee.Conclusions: The capacity development of a nursing program was possible through ownership, accountability, and results-based management. Gradual improvement in nursing academic and clinical capacity building based on research evidence can empower partner countries' nursing leadership. Introduction.

Expert - Non-expert differences in visual behaviour during alpine slalom skiing.

Science.gov (United States)

Decroix, Marjolein; Wazir, Mohd Rozilee Wazir Norjali; Zeuwts, Linus; Deconinck, Frederik F J A; Lenoir, Matthieu; Vansteenkiste, Pieter

2017-10-01

The aim of this study was to investigate visual behaviour of expert and non-expert ski athletes during an alpine slalom. Fourteen non-experts and five expert slalom skiers completed an alpine slalom course in an indoor ski slope while wearing a head-mounted eye tracking device. Experts completed the slalom clearly faster than non-experts, but no significant difference was found in timing and position of the turn initiation. Although both groups already looked at future obstacles approximately 0,5s before passing the upcoming pole, the higher speed of experts implied that they shifted gaze spatially earlier in the bend than non-experts. Furthermore, experts focussed more on the second next pole while non-expert slalom skiers looked more to the snow surface immediately in front of their body. No difference was found in the fixation frequency, average fixation duration, and quiet eye duration between both groups. These results suggest that experts focus on the timing of their actions while non-experts still need to pay attention to the execution of these actions. These results also might suggest that ski trainers should instruct non-experts and experts to focus on the next pole and, shift their gaze to the second next pole shortly before reaching it. Based on the current study it seems unadvisable to instruct slalom skiers to look several poles ahead during the actual slalom. However, future research should test if these results still hold on a real outdoor slope, including multiple vertical gates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How do experts define relevance criteria when initiating Health Impact Assessments of national policies?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kraemer, Stella Rj; Gulis, Gabriel

2014-01-01

The aim of this article is to present how the Danish Disease Prevention Committee (DDPC) members and HIA-experts understand when HIA is "relevant", which in this context means when there is "presumed to be a direct and documented effect on the health and morbidity of citizens". Method: DDPC members...... were interviewed face-to-face; HIA experts participated in an e-survey. Results: Six DDPC members were interviewed and 100 HIA-experts participated in a survey. The DDPC members consider direct as the link between determinants and the related risk factors. The HIA experts consider direct as the link...... between policy and the related risk factors. Both groups favour the use of scientific evidence according to the traditional biomedical evidence hierarchy but HIA-experts also judge that there is value in using evidence that can be considered weak such as local community knowledge. Conclusions: It is clear...

Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography: a national needs assessment of competencies for general and expert practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Lisa M; Woo, Michael Y; Lee, A Curtis; Wiss, Ray; Socransky, Steve; Frank, Jason R

2015-01-01

Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography (EM-PoCUS) is a core competency for residents in the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and College of Family Physicians of Canada emergency medicine (EM) training programs. Although EM-PoCUS fellowships are currently offered in Canada, there is little consensus regarding what training should be included in a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship curriculum or how this contrasts with the training received in an EM residency.Objectives To conduct a systematic needs assessment of major stakeholders to define the essential elements necessary for a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship training curriculum. We carried out a national survey of experts in EM-PoCUS, EM residency program directors, and EM residents. Respondents were asked to identify competencies deemed either nonessential to EM practice, essential for general EM practice, essential for advanced EM practice, or essential for EM-PoCUS fellowship trained (‘‘expert’’) practice. The response rate was 81% (351 of 435). PoCUS was deemed essential to general EM practice for basic cardiac, aortic, trauma, and procedural imaging. PoCUS was deemed essential to advanced EM practice in undifferentiated symptomatology, advanced chest pathologies, and advanced procedural applications. Expert-level PoCUS competencies were identified for administrative, pediatric, and advanced gynecologic applications. Eighty-seven percent of respondents indicated that there was a need for EM-PoCUS fellowships, with an ideal length of 6 months. This is the first needs assessment of major stakeholders in Canada to identify competencies for expert training in EM-PoCUS. The competencies should form the basis for EM-PoCUS fellowship programs in Canada.

Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of Lattice Transmission Towers under Strong Wind

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei eZhang

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Serving as one key component of the most important lifeline infrastructure system, transmission towers are vulnerable to multiple nature hazards including strong wind and could pose severe threats to the power system security with possible blackouts under extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes, derechoes, or winter storms. For the security and resiliency of the power system, it is important to ensure the structural safety with enough capacity for all possible failure modes, such as structural stability. The study is to develop a probabilistic capacity assessment approach for transmission towers under strong wind loads. Due to the complicated structural details of lattice transmission towers, wind tunnel experiments are carried out to understand the complex interactions of wind and the lattice sections of transmission tower and drag coefficients and the dynamic amplification factor for different panels of the transmission tower are obtained. The wind profile is generated and the wind time histories are simulated as a summation of time-varying mean and fluctuating components. The capacity curve for the transmission towers is obtained from the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA method. To consider the stochastic nature of wind field, probabilistic capacity curves are generated by implementing IDA analysis for different wind yaw angles and different randomly generated wind speed time histories. After building the limit state functions based on the maximum allowable drift to height ratio, the probabilities of failure are obtained based on the meteorological data at a given site. As the transmission tower serves as the key nodes for the power network, the probabilistic capacity curves can be incorporated into the performance based design of the power transmission network.

A prototype nuclear emergency response decision making expert system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang, C.; Shih, C.; Hong, M.; Yu, W.; Su, M.; Wang, S.

1990-01-01

A prototype of emergency response expert system developed for nuclear power plants, has been fulfilled by Institute of Nuclear Energy Research. Key elements that have been implemented for emergency response include radioactive material dispersion assessment, dynamic transportation evacuation assessment, and meteorological parametric forecasting. A network system consists of five 80386 Personal Computers (PCs) has been installed to perform the system functions above. A further project is still continuing to achieve a more complicated and fanciful computer aid integral emergency response expert system

Consumer versus expert hazard identification

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagemann, Kit S.; Scholderer, Joachim

2007-01-01

Novel foods have been the object of intense public debate in recent years. Despite efforts to communicate the outcomes of risk assessments to consumers, public confidence in the management of potential risks has been low. Various reasons behind this have been identified, chiefly a disagreement...... between technical experts and consumers over the nature of the hazards on which risk assessments should focus, and perceptions of insufficient openness about uncertainties in risk assessment. Whilst previous research has almost exclusively focused on genetically modified foods, the present paper...

On the balanced blending of formally structured and simplified approaches for utilizing judgments of experts in the assessment of uncertain issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo

2003-01-01

Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues

Crowdsourcing: a valid alternative to expert evaluation of robotic surgery skills.

Science.gov (United States)

Polin, Michael R; Siddiqui, Nazema Y; Comstock, Bryan A; Hesham, Helai; Brown, Casey; Lendvay, Thomas S; Martino, Martin A

2016-11-01

Robotic-assisted gynecologic surgery is common, but requires unique training. A validated assessment tool for evaluating trainees' robotic surgery skills is Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. We sought to assess whether crowdsourcing can be used as an alternative to expert surgical evaluators in scoring Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. The Robotic Training Network produced the Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills, which evaluate trainees across 5 dry lab robotic surgical drills. Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills were previously validated in a study of 105 participants, where dry lab surgical drills were recorded, de-identified, and scored by 3 expert surgeons using the Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills checklist. Our methods-comparison study uses these previously obtained recordings and expert surgeon scores. Mean scores per participant from each drill were separated into quartiles. Crowdworkers were trained and calibrated on Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills scoring using a representative recording of a skilled and novice surgeon. Following this, 3 recordings from each scoring quartile for each drill were randomly selected. Crowdworkers evaluated the randomly selected recordings using Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills. Linear mixed effects models were used to derive mean crowdsourced ratings for each drill. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to assess the correlation between crowdsourced and expert surgeons' ratings. In all, 448 crowdworkers reviewed videos from 60 dry lab drills, and completed a total of 2517 Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills assessments within 16 hours. Crowdsourced Robotic-Objective Structured Assessments of Technical Skills ratings were highly correlated with expert surgeon ratings across each of the 5 dry lab drills

Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chung, Timothy S.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Johnson, Timothy L.

2011-01-01

A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO 2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: → Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. → Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. → Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. → These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. → The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chung, Timothy S. [Eastern Research Group, Inc., 110 Hartwell Avenue 1, Lexington, MA 02421-3134l (United States); Patino-Echeverri, Dalia, E-mail: dalia.patino@duke.edu [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States); Johnson, Timothy L. [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States)

2011-09-15

A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO{sub 2} capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: > Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. > Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. > Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. > These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. > The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

Assessing Clinical Research Capacity in Vietnam: A Framework for Strengthening Capability for Clinical Trials in Developing Countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Kagan, Jonathan; Giang, Dao Duc; Iademarco, Michael F; Phung, Van Tt; Lau, Chuen-Yen; Quang, Nguyen Ngo

2016-01-01

Although improving health systems promises important benefits, most developing nations lack the resources to support nationally driven clinical research. Strengthened clinical research capacity can advance national health goals by supporting greater autonomy in aligning research with national priorities. From March through June 2010, we assessed six elements of clinical research capacity in Vietnam: research agenda; clinical investigators and biostatisticians; donors and sponsors; community involvement; scientific, ethical, safety, and quality oversight; and clinical research institutions. Assessments were drawn from interviews with investigators, Ministry of Health staff members, nongovernment organizations, and U.S. Mission staff members, and document review. Observations and recommendations were shared with collaborators. Reassessment in 2015 found growth in the number of clinical trials, improved regulation in human subjects protection and community engagement, and modest advances in research agenda setting. Training and investment in institutions remain challenging. A framework for assessing clinical research capacity can affirm strengths and weaknesses and guide the coordination of capacity-building efforts.

[The methodological basis of expert assessment of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment in the framework of civil law proceedings].

Science.gov (United States)

Pigolkin, Iu I; Murzova, T V; Mirzoev, Kh M

2011-01-01

The authors discuss peculiarities of the performance of forensic medical expertise in the cases of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment. The methodological basis of expert assessment has been created to be applied in situations related to the unfavourable outcomes of dental care.

Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

2010-05-01

Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

Assessment of the capacity of slow sand filtration to eliminate Cryptosporidium oocysts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hijnen, W.A.M.; Dullemont, Y.J.; Bosklopper, K.T.G.J.; Schijven, J.F.; Medema, Gerriet Jan

2006-01-01

Decimal Elimination Capacity (DEC) of the slow sand filters of the Dutch drinking water Companies was assessed; first by literature review, followed by evaluation of the removal of environmental spores of sulphite-reducing clostridia (SSRC) and small-sized centric diatoms (SSCD) as surrogates.

African Health Economics and Policy Research Capacity Building ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

African Health Economics and Policy Research Capacity Building and Dissemination. As African countries move toward universal health coverage, it is clear there is a shortage of African experts with applied research skills in health financing such as fiscal space analysis, needs-based resource allocation methods, and ...

Building research capacity to inform practical policymaking | IDRC ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2017-08-17

Aug 17, 2017 ... IDRC is committed to supporting cutting-edge research led by developing country experts to create lasting change. Building strong partnerships with regional researchers and organizations through research support and capacity building is integral to the success of this approach. The African Economic ...

Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

2015-12-01

This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

2015-12-01

This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

[Telemedicine correlation in retinopathy of prematurity between experts and non-expert observers].

Science.gov (United States)

Ossandón, D; Zanolli, M; López, J P; Stevenson, R; Agurto, R; Cartes, C

2015-01-01

To study the correlation between expert and non-expert observers in the reporting images for the diagnosis of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in a telemedicine setting. A cross-sectional, multicenter study, consisting of 25 sets of images of patients screened for ROP. They were evaluated by two experts in ROP and 1 non-expert and classified according to telemedicine classification, zone, stage, plus disease and Ells referral criteria. The telemedicine classification was: no ROP, mild ROP, type 2 ROP, or ROP that requires treatment. Ells referral criteria is defined as the presence at least one of the following: ROP in zone I, Stage 3 in zone I or II, or plus+ For statistical analysis, SPSS 16.0 was used. For correlation, Kappa value was performed. There was a high correlation between observers for the assessment of ROP stage (0.75; 0.54-0.88) plus disease (0.85; 0.71-0.92), and Ells criteria (0.89; 0.83-1.0). However, inter-observer values were low for zone (0.41; 0.27-0.54) and telemedicine classification (0.43; 0.33-0.6). When evaluating telemedicine images by examiners with different levels of expertise in ROP, the Ells criteria gave the best correlation. In addition, stage of disease and plus disease have good correlation among observers. In contrast, the correlation between observers was low for zone and telemedicine classification. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

The electricity generation adequacy problem: Assessing dynamic effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hary, Nicolas; Rious, Vincent; Saguan, Marcelo

2016-01-01

Following liberalization reforms, the ability of power markets to provide satisfactory incentives for capacity investments has become a major concern. In particular, current energy markets can exhibit a phenomenon of investment cycles, which generate phases of under and over-capacity, and hence additional costs and risks for generation adequacy. To cope with these issues, new mechanisms, called capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRM), have been (or will be) implemented. This paper assesses the dynamic effects of two CRMs, the capacity market and the strategic reserve mechanism, and studies to what extent they can reduce the investment cycles. Generation costs and shortage costs of both mechanisms are also compared to conclude on their effectivity and economic efficiency. A simulation model, based on system dynamics, is developed to study the functioning of both CRMs and the related investment decisions. The results highlight the benefits of deploying CRMs to solve the adequacy issue: shortages are strongly reduced compared to an energy-only market. Besides, the capacity market appears to be more beneficial, since it experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower. These comparisons can be used by policy makers (in particular in Europe, where these two CRMs are mainly debated) to determine which CRM to adopt. - Highlights: •A study of the dynamic effects of CRMs on generation investments is provided. •Capacity market and strategic reserve mechanism are compared. •Both CRMs reduce the cyclical tendencies prone to appear in energy-only market. •The capacity market experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower.

Assessing Community Leadership: Understanding Community Capacity for Health Improvement.

Science.gov (United States)

Castle, Billie; Wendel, Monica; Kelly Pryor, Brandy N; Ingram, Monique

The purpose of this study was to pilot a quantitative instrument to measure aspects of community leadership within an assessment framework. The instrument includes 14 Likert-type questions asking residents how they perceive leaders within 5 sectors: Louisville Metro Council/Mayor's Office, the faith community, education, business, and the civic sector. Louisville/Jefferson County, Kentucky, has a population of about 743 000 residents. Respondents were asked to examine leadership within West Louisville, an economically deprived area of the city made up of 9 contiguous neighborhoods. This area is predominantly African American (78% compared with 22% in Louisville Metro), with an overall poverty rate of 43% (compared with 18% in Louisville Metro), and unemployment rate of 23% (compared with 8% in Louisville Metro). Residents of West Louisville are looking to leadership to address many of the inequities. Twenty-seven participants representing 7 community sectors completed the survey, of whom 90% work in West Louisville. The instrument measured local perceptions of leadership strength, effectiveness, trust, communication, community building, and leadership development. The majority of respondents agree that strong leadership exists across the 5 sectors, with variation regarding perceptions of the quality of that leadership. City leadership within the Mayor's Office and Metro Council is largely viewed positively, while the growing tensions within the education sector were reflected in the survey results. The perception of community leadership is important to understanding local community capacity to improve health and also inclusivity of community voice in the assessment and community improvement processes. Results from such assessments can offer useful information for strengthening community capacity and sustaining relationships needed to enact progressive and equitable solutions to address local issues. Leaders in a variety of settings can utilize this instrument to

Model of critical diagnostic reasoning: achieving expert clinician performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Harjai, Prashant Kumar; Tiwari, Ruby

2009-01-01

Diagnostic reasoning refers to the analytical processes used to determine patient health problems. While the education curriculum and health care system focus on training nurse clinicians to accurately recognize and rescue clinical situations, assessments of non-expert nurses have yielded less than satisfactory data on diagnostic competency. The contrast between the expert and non-expert nurse clinician raises the important question of how differences in thinking may contribute to a large divergence in accurate diagnostic reasoning. This article recognizes superior organization of one's knowledge base, using prototypes, and quick retrieval of pertinent information, using similarity recognition as two reasons for the expert's superior diagnostic performance. A model of critical diagnostic reasoning, using prototypes and similarity recognition, is proposed and elucidated using case studies. This model serves as a starting point toward bridging the gap between clinical data and accurate problem identification, verification, and management while providing a structure for a knowledge exchange between expert and non-expert clinicians.

Polyp morphology: an interobserver evaluation for the Paris classification among international experts.

Science.gov (United States)

van Doorn, Sascha C; Hazewinkel, Y; East, James E; van Leerdam, Monique E; Rastogi, Amit; Pellisé, Maria; Sanduleanu-Dascalescu, Silvia; Bastiaansen, Barbara A J; Fockens, Paul; Dekker, Evelien

2015-01-01

The Paris classification is an international classification system for describing polyp morphology. Thus far, the validity and reproducibility of this classification have not been assessed. We aimed to determine the interobserver agreement for the Paris classification among seven Western expert endoscopists. A total of 85 short endoscopic video clips depicting polyps were created and assessed by seven expert endoscopists according to the Paris classification. After a digital training module, the same 85 polyps were assessed again. We calculated the interobserver agreement with a Fleiss kappa and as the proportion of pairwise agreement. The interobserver agreement of the Paris classification among seven experts was moderate with a Fleiss kappa of 0.42 and a mean pairwise agreement of 67%. The proportion of lesions assessed as "flat" by the experts ranged between 13 and 40% (Pagreement did not change (kappa 0.38, pairwise agreement 60%). Our study is the first to validate the Paris classification for polyp morphology. We demonstrated only a moderate interobserver agreement among international Western experts for this classification system. Our data suggest that, in its current version, the use of this classification system in daily practice is questionable and it is unsuitable for comparative endoscopic research. We therefore suggest introduction of a simplification of the classification system.

Assessment of geomechanical properties, maximum depth and excavation damaged zone aspects - Expert report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Amann, F.; Löw, S.; Perras, M.

2015-11-01

This comprehensive report published by the Swiss National Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI discusses the expert report published on the need for the assessment of geomechanical properties and maximum depth of repositories for high, medium and low-activity nuclear wastes. Also, aspects concerning excavation damaged zones (EDZ) are considered. These are all criteria for the selection of sites as part of Phase 2 of the Swiss waste disposal project. Four questions are examined: are NAGRA’s documented basic considerations and calculations on Opalinus Clay comprehensive enough and correct, are the calculations on maximum depth correct, are the proposed storage perimeters correct with respect to depth and will NAGRA be able to take possible excavation damaged zones (EDZ) into account? Literature and references concerning the subject are quoted

[Aspects of family-oriented diagnosis in compulsory legal family expert assessment].

Science.gov (United States)

Mladek, G; Löffler, M; Nickel, P

1990-06-01

In forensic psychology, recommendations that courts request when granting one of the parents the right of child upbringing after a divorce pose a problem for the person who is required to give such expert judgment. The authors describe the difficult situation he faces when having to decide for and, at the same time, against one of the parents. A good knowledge of family psychology and pathopsychology is essential, and for drawing up the expertise and stating his reasons, the expert requires methodical resources. The authors describe four procedures of relational diagnosis and recommend the combined use of these in conjunction with methods that have been employed so far.

Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coppersmith, Kevin J.; Perman, Roseanne C.

1998-01-01

This report presents results of the Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation (SZEE) project for Yucca Mountain, Nevada. This project was sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) and managed by Geomatrix Consultants, Inc. (Geomatrix), for TRW Environmental Safety Systems, Inc. The DOE's Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (referred to as the YMP) is intended to evaluate the suitability of the site for construction of a mined geologic repository for the permanent disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The SZEE project is one of several that involve the elicitation of experts to characterize the knowledge and uncertainties regarding key inputs to the Yucca Mountain Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA). The objective of the current project was to characterize the uncertainties associated with certain key issues related to the saturated zone system in the Yucca Mountain area and downgradient region. An understanding of saturated zone processes is critical to evaluating the performance of the potential high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. A major goal of the project was to capture the uncertainties involved in assessing the saturated flow processes, including uncertainty in both the models used to represent the physical processes controlling saturated zone flow and transport, and the parameter values used in the models. So that the analysis included a wide range of perspectives, multiple individual judgments were elicited from members of an expert panel. The panel members, who were experts from within and outside the Yucca Mountain project, represented a range of experience and expertise. A deliberate process was followed in facilitating interactions among the experts, in training them to express their uncertainties, and in eliciting their interpretations. The resulting assessments and probability distributions, therefore, provide a reasonable aggregate representation of the knowledge and

Expert ease

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1984-04-01

Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

Health research capacity building in Georgia: a case-based needs assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Squires, A; Chitashvili, T; Djibuti, M; Ridge, L; Chyun, D

2017-06-01

Research capacity building in the health sciences in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has typically focused on bench-science capacity, but research examining health service delivery and health workforce is equally necessary to determine the best ways to deliver care. The Republic of Georgia, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, has multiple issues within its healthcare system that would benefit from expended research capacity, but the current research environment needs to be explored prior to examining research-focused activities. The purpose of this project was to conduct a needs assessment focused on developing research capacity in the Republic of Georgia with an emphasis on workforce and network development. A case study approach guided by a needs assessment format. We conducted in-country, informal, semi-structured interviews in English with key informants and focus groups with faculty, students, and representatives of local non-governmental organizations. Purposive and snowball sampling approaches were used to recruit participants, with key informant interviews scheduled prior to arrival in country. Documents relevant to research capacity building were also included. Interview results were coded via content analysis. Final results were organized into a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threat) analysis format, with the report shared with participants. There is widespread interest among students and faculty in Georgia around building research capacity. Lack of funding was identified by many informants as a barrier to research. Many critical research skills, such as proposal development, qualitative research skills, and statistical analysis, were reported as very limited. Participants expressed concerns about the ethics of research, with some suggesting that research is undertaken to punish or 'expose' subjects. However, students and faculty are highly motivated to improve their skills, are open to a variety of learning modalities, and have

The potential of geological storage of CO2 in Austria: a techno-economic assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Brüstle, Anna Katharina; Welkenhuysen, Kris; Bottig, Magdalena; Piessens, Kris; Ramirez, Andrea; Swenner, Rudy

2014-05-01

An impressive two-third or about 40GWh/y of electricity in Austria is produced from renewable energy sources, in particular hydro energy. For the remaining part the country depends on fossil fuels, which together with iron & steel production form the most CO2 intensive industries in Austria with a combined emission of just over 20Mt/y. According to the IEA, CO2 capture and geological storage (CCS) can reduce the global CO2 emission until 2050 by 17%. A correct assessment of CCS needs to start with the storage potential. Prior to this study, only general estimates of the theoretical capacity of Austrian reservoirs were available, thus, up until now, the realistic potential for CCS technology has not been assessed. Both for policy and industry, an assessment of the matched capacity is required, which is the capacity that actually will be used in CCS projects. This hurdle can be taken by applying a recently developed methodology (Welkenhuysen et al., 2013). This policy support system (PSS) consists of two parts, PSS Explorer and PSS III simulator. In brief, the methodology is based on expert judgements of potential reservoirs. These assessments can provide the best available data, including the expert's experience and possibly confidential data, without disclosing specific data. The geo-techno-economic calculation scheme PSS Explorer uses the expert input to calculate for each individual reservoir an assessment of the practical capacity (as probability density functions), in function of an acceptable price for storage. This practical capacity can then be used by the techno-economic PSS III simulator to perform advanced source-sink matching until 2050 and thus provide the matched reservoir capacity. The analysed reservoirs are 7 active or abandoned oil and gas reservoirs in Austria. The simulation of the electricity and iron & steel sector of Austria resulted in the estimation of the geological storage potential, taking into account geological, technological and

Numerical Activities of Daily Living - Financial (NADL-F): A tool for the assessment of financial capacities.

Science.gov (United States)

Arcara, Giorgio; Burgio, Francesca; Benavides-Varela, Silvia; Toffano, Roberta; Gindri, Patrizia; Tonini, Elisabetta; Meneghello, Francesca; Semenza, Carlo

2017-09-07

Financial capacity is the ability to manage one's own finances according to self-interests. Failure in financial decisions and lack of independence when dealing with money can affect people's quality of life and are associated with neuropsychological deficits or clinical conditions such as mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease. Despite the importance of evaluating financial capacity in the assessment of patients with neuropsychological and psychiatric disorders, only a few tools have been developed. In the present article, the authors introduce the Numerical Activities of Daily Living - Financial (NADL-F) test, a new test to assess financial capacity in clinical populations. The NADL-F is relatively short, yet it encompasses the most common activities involving financial capacities. The NADL-F proved to have satisfactory psychometric properties and overall good validity for measuring financial abilities. Associations with performance on basic neuropsychological tests were investigated, in particular focusing on mathematical abilities as cognitive correlates of financial capacity. Results indicate that the NADL-F could be a useful tool to guide treatments for the enhancement of financial capacities. By sharing all materials and procedures, the authors hope to promote the development of further versions of the NADL-F in different languages, taking into account the necessary adjustments related to different socio-cultural contexts.

Expert System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

2016-01-01

An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

Ecological carrying capacity assessment of diving site: A case study of Mabul Island, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Li-Ye; Chung, Shan-Shan; Qiu, Jian-Wen

2016-12-01

Despite considered a non-consumptive use of the marine environment, diving-related activities can cause damages to coral reefs. It is imminent to assess the maximum numbers of divers that can be accommodated by a diving site before it is subject to irreversible deterioration. This study aimed to assess the ecological carrying capacity of a diving site in Mabul Island, Malaysia. Photo-quadrat line transect method was used in the benthic survey. The ecological carrying capacity was assessed based on the relationship between the number of divers and the proportion of diver damaged hard corals in Mabul Island. The results indicated that the proportion of diver damaged hard corals occurred exponentially with increasing use. The ecological carrying capacity of Mabul Island is 15,600-16,800 divers per diving site per year at current levels of diver education and training with a quarterly threshold of 3900-4200 per site. Our calculation shows that management intervention (e.g. limiting diving) is justified at 8-14% of hard coral damage. In addition, the use of coral reef dominated diving sites should be managed according to their sensitivity to diver damage and the depth of the reefs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

THE EFFECT OF MODERATE AND HIGH-INTENSITY FATIGUE ON GROUNDSTROKE ACCURACY IN EXPERT AND NON-EXPERT TENNIS PLAYERS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark Lyons

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Exploring the effects of fatigue on skilled performance in tennis presents a significant challenge to the researcher with respect to ecological validity. This study examined the effects of moderate and high-intensity fatigue on groundstroke accuracy in expert and non-expert tennis players. The research also explored whether the effects of fatigue are the same regardless of gender and player's achievement motivation characteristics. 13 expert (7 male, 6 female and 17 non-expert (13 male, 4 female tennis players participated in the study. Groundstroke accuracy was assessed using the modified Loughborough Tennis Skills Test. Fatigue was induced using the Loughborough Intermittent Tennis Test with moderate (70% and high-intensities (90% set as a percentage of peak heart rate (attained during a tennis-specific maximal hitting sprint test. Ratings of perceived exertion were used as an adjunct to the monitoring of heart rate. Achievement goal indicators for each player were assessed using the 2 x 2 Achievement Goals Questionnaire for Sport in an effort to examine if this personality characteristic provides insight into how players perform under moderate and high-intensity fatigue conditions. A series of mixed ANOVA's revealed significant fatigue effects on groundstroke accuracy regardless of expertise. The expert players however, maintained better groundstroke accuracy across all conditions compared to the novice players. Nevertheless, in both groups, performance following high-intensity fatigue deteriorated compared to performance at rest and performance while moderately fatigued. Groundstroke accuracy under moderate levels of fatigue was equivalent to that at rest. Fatigue effects were also similar regardless of gender. No fatigue by expertise, or fatigue by gender interactions were found. Fatigue effects were also equivalent regardless of player's achievement goal indicators. Future research is required to explore the effects of fatigue on

Work capacity assessment of Nigerian bricklayers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S .O. Ismaila

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The main aim of this study is to assess the physical work capacity of bricklayers with focus on the energy expenditure during work. Eighty Nine bricklayers’ working on various sites in Ibadan and Eruwa towns of Oyo State, Nigeria are used for the study. Correlation and regression analysis using SPSS 16.0 Statistical Package was used to determine the relationship between VO2 given the age and weight of the subjects; % RHR(Relative Heart Rate and working heart rate (HRW given weight; VO2 and %RHR given Body Mass Index (BMI. The results showed that the mean energy expenditure of bricklaying was 1.5l/min of oxygen (7.23Kcal/min, using a conversion factor of 4.82 which classified bricklaying as “heavy work”. A rest allowance of 64.45% (38.67 minutes rest for 60 minutes work duration was calculated. It was concluded that there is a need to redesign the work content of the aforementioned occupation in order to reduce excessive strain on the workers, which in turn will increase productivity.

Structural capacity assessment of machine-building enterprises and associations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prilutskay Maria

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Multidirectional tendencies of machine-building enterprises integration and disintegration resulted in the emergence of the formal and informal associations. These associations consist of the obviously and/or implicitly affiliated legal entities. Thus, a new element appears in the direct enterprise environment, i.e a management company or a head enterprise. The management company influences the participants even in an informal association. New environment restrictions led to the changes in the management structure. The paper considers the enterprise structures interrelation: organizational, financial, production, resource, and others. The authors draw a conclusion that the structures are hierarchy, and there are the coherence structures assessment criteria. The coordinated structures form the structural capacity of the enterprise. The suggested assessment coherence criteria (for example resource and functional structures allow estimating the structural potential and defining the directions of the enterprise efficiency increase.

Sources of correlation between experts: Empirical results from two extremes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

1987-04-01

Through two studies, this report seeks to identify the sources of correlation, or dependence, between experts' estimates. Expert estimates are relied upon as sources of data whenever experimental data is lacking, such as in risk analyses and reliability assessments. Correlation between experts is a problem in the elicitation and subsequent use of subjective estimates. Until now, there have been no data confirming sources of correlation, although the experts' background is commonly speculated to be one. Two different populations of experts were administered questions in their areas of expertise. Data on their professional backgrounds and means of solving the questions were elicited using techniques from educational psychology and ethnography. The results from both studies indicate that the way in which an expert solves the problem is the major source of correlation. The experts' background can not be shown to be an important source of correlation nor to influence his choice of method for problem solution. From these results, some recommendations are given for the elicitation and use of expert opinion

Assessment of the Sustainable Development Capacity with the Entropy Weight Coefficient Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qingsong Wang

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Sustainable development is widely accepted in the world. How to reflect the sustainable development capacity of a region is an important issue for enacting policies and plans. An index system for capacity assessment is established by employing the Entropy Weight Coefficient method. The results indicate that the sustainable development capacity of Shandong Province is improving in terms of its economy subsystem, resource subsystem, and society subsystem whilst degrading in its environment subsystem. Shandong Province has shown the general trend towards sustainable development. However, the sustainable development capacity can be constrained by the resources such as energy, land, water, as well as environmental protection. These issues are induced by the economy development model, the security of energy supply, the level of new energy development, the end-of-pipe control of pollution, and the level of science and technology commercialization. Efforts are required to accelerate the development of the tertiary industry, the commercialization of high technology, the development of new energy and renewable energy, and the structure optimization of energy mix. Long-term measures need to be established for the ecosystem and environment protection.

Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Beatty, Mark E.; Beutels, Philippe; Meltzer, Martin I.; Shepard, Donald S.; Hombach, Joachim; Hutubessy, Raymond; Dessis, Damien; Coudeville, Laurent; Dervaux, Benoit; Wichmann, Ole; Margolis, Harold S.; Kuritsky, Joel N.

2011-01-01

Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease. PMID:21363989

EXPERT SYSTEMS

OpenAIRE

Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

2011-01-01

In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

2017-12-01

Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

an expert assessment

OpenAIRE

Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.

2016-01-01

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are ...

Expert Involvement and Adherence to Medical Evidence in Medical Mobile Phone Apps: A Systematic Review.

Science.gov (United States)

Subhi, Yousif; Bube, Sarah Hjartbro; Rolskov Bojsen, Signe; Skou Thomsen, Ann Sofia; Konge, Lars

2015-07-27

Both clinicians and patients use medical mobile phone apps. Anyone can publish medical apps, which leads to contents with variable quality that may have a serious impact on human lives. We herein provide an overview of the prevalence of expert involvement in app development and whether or not app contents adhere to current medical evidence. To systematically review studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. We systematically searched 3 databases (PubMed, The Cochrane Library, and EMBASE), and included studies evaluating expert involvement or adherence of app content to medical evidence in medical mobile phone apps. Two authors performed data extraction independently. Qualitative analysis of the included studies was performed. Based on inclusion criteria, 52 studies were included in this review. These studies assessed a total of 6520 apps. Studies dealt with a variety of medical specialties and topics. As much as 28 studies assessed expert involvement, which was found in 9-67% of the assessed apps. Thirty studies (including 6 studies that also assessed expert involvement) assessed adherence of app content to current medical evidence. Thirteen studies found that 10-87% of the assessed apps adhered fully to the compared evidence (published studies, recommendations, and guidelines). Seventeen studies found that none of the assessed apps (n=2237) adhered fully to the compared evidence. Most medical mobile phone apps lack expert involvement and do not adhere to relevant medical evidence.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) and expert testimony.

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Kulich, Ronald; Maciewicz, Raymond; Scrivani, Steven J

2009-03-01

Medical experts frequently use imaging studies to illustrate points in their court testimony. This article reviews how these studies impact the credibility of expert testimony with judges and juries. The apparent "objective" evidence provided by such imaging studies can lend strong credence to a judge's or jury's appraisal of medical expert's testimony. However, as the court usually has no specialized scientific expertise, the use of complex images as part of courtroom testimony also has the potential to mislead or at least inappropriately bias the weight given to expert evidence. Recent advances in brain imaging may profoundly impact forensic expert testimony. Functional magnetic resonance imaging and other physiologic imaging techniques currently allow visualization of the activation pattern of brain regions associated with a wide variety of cognitive and behavioral tasks, and more recently, pain. While functional imaging technology has a valuable role in brain research and clinical investigation, it is important to emphasize that the use of imaging studies in forensic matters requires a careful scientific foundation and a rigorous legal assessment.

Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

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Christos Chalkias

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

Ischemic Heart Disease and Work Disability in Patients Treated at the Internal Medicine Consultation and Assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkis Vicente Sánchez

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Background: ischemic heart disease represents a major challenge given the large number of people affected by this condition, its increasing contribution to overall mortality, the frequent disability resulting from it, and the complexity and high cost of its treatment. Objective: to describe the work disability caused by ischemic heart disease in patients treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted including all patients with ischemic heart disease treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality from October 2012 to July 2013. The variables analyzed were: age, sex, occupation, years of work and accrued salary, clinical diagnosis, length of time the condition had been present and associated chronic diseases; existence of prior assessment by an Expert Medical Labor Commission and decision reached, previous days of sick leave and current decision of the commission. The data were analyzed using SPSS (version 18.0 and the results are shown in tables and graphs as numbers and percentages. Results: a predominance of men was observed. Forty two point nine percent were service workers and the average number of years of work was 24.60. Forty two point nine percent were previously assessed by the commission. Two hundred one point thirteen days of sick leave were granted and social security expenditure in a month was high. Diabetes mellitus was the most common chronic disease followed by hypertension, obesity and dyslipidemia. Of the workers previously assessed, half received permanent and temporary disability benefits. Conclusions: ischemic heart disease causes different degrees of disability. Its costs in terms of social security are increasing.

Assessment of features for automatic CTG analysis based on expert annotation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chudácek, Vacláv; Spilka, Jirí; Lhotská, Lenka; Janku, Petr; Koucký, Michal; Huptych, Michal; Bursa, Miroslav

2011-01-01

Cardiotocography (CTG) is the monitoring of fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine contractions (TOCO) since 1960's used routinely by obstetricians to detect fetal hypoxia. The evaluation of the FHR in clinical settings is based on an evaluation of macroscopic morphological features and so far has managed to avoid adopting any achievements from the HRV research field. In this work, most of the ever-used features utilized for FHR characterization, including FIGO, HRV, nonlinear, wavelet, and time and frequency domain features, are investigated and the features are assessed based on their statistical significance in the task of distinguishing the FHR into three FIGO classes. Annotation derived from the panel of experts instead of the commonly utilized pH values was used for evaluation of the features on a large data set (552 records). We conclude the paper by presenting the best uncorrelated features and their individual rank of importance according to the meta-analysis of three different ranking methods. Number of acceleration and deceleration, interval index, as well as Lempel-Ziv complexity and Higuchi's fractal dimension are among the top five features.

Empowerment impact assessment (EmpIA), a tool for poverty alleviation and capacity building

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Louw, MR

2006-09-01

Full Text Available their quality of life. xrhombus Facilitate the upgrading of the social and physical environment. xrhombus Increase employment. xrhombus Reduce poverty. xrhombus Stimulate economic growth. xrhombus Reduce imbalances in access to economic opportunities. 1... IMPACT ASSESSMENT (EmpIA), A TOOL FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND CAPACITY BUILDING M.R. LOUW CSIR Built Environment: Pretoria, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001 ABSTRACT Empowerment impact assessment (EmpIA) is a quantitative...

Assessment of policy makers' individual and organizational capacity to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence for maternal and child health policy making in Nigeria: a cross-sectional quantitative survey.

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Uneke, Chigozie Jesse; Sombie, Issiaka; Keita, Namoudou; Lokossou, Virgil; Johnson, Ermel; Ongolo-Zogo, Pierre; Uro-Chukwu, Henry Chukwuemeka

2017-09-01

Throughout the world, there is increasing awareness and acknowledgement of the value of research evidence in the development of effective health policy and in quality health care practice and administration. Among the major challenges associated with the lack of uptake of research evidence into policy and practice in Nigeria is the capacity constraints of policymakers to use research evidence in policy making. To assess the capacity of maternal and child health policy makers to acquire, access, adapt and apply available research evidence. This cross-sectional quantitative survey was conducted at a national maternal, newborn and child health (MNCH) stakeholders' engagement event. An evidence to policy self-assessment questionnaire was used to assess the capacity of forty MNCH policy makers to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence for policy making. Low mean ratings were observed ranging from 2.68-3.53 on a scale of 5 for knowledge about initiating/conducting research and capacity to assess authenticity, validity, reliability, relevance and applicability of research evidence and for organizational capacity for promoting and using of research for policy making. There is need to institute policy makers' capacity development programmes to improve evidence-informed policymaking.

Orthopaedic Trauma Care Capacity Assessment and Strategic Planning in Ghana: Mapping a Way Forward.

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Stewart, Barclay T; Gyedu, Adam; Tansley, Gavin; Yeboah, Dominic; Amponsah-Manu, Forster; Mock, Charles; Labi-Addo, Wilfred; Quansah, Robert

2016-12-07

Orthopaedic conditions incur more than 52 million disability-adjusted life years annually worldwide. This burden disproportionately affects low and middle-income countries, which are least equipped to provide orthopaedic care. We aimed to assess orthopaedic capacity in Ghana, describe spatial access to orthopaedic care, and identify hospitals that would most improve access to care if their capacity was improved. Seventeen perioperative and orthopaedic trauma care-related items were selected from the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care. Direct inspection and structured interviews with hospital staff were used to assess resource availability and factors contributing to deficiencies at 40 purposively sampled facilities. Cost-distance analyses described population-level spatial access to orthopaedic trauma care. Facilities for targeted capability improvement were identified through location-allocation modeling. Orthopaedic trauma care assessment demonstrated marked deficiencies. Some deficient resources were low cost (e.g., spinal immobilization, closed reduction capabilities, and prosthetics for amputees). Resource nonavailability resulted from several contributing factors (e.g., absence of equipment, technology breakage, lack of training). Implants were commonly prohibitively expensive. Building basic orthopaedic care capacity at 15 hospitals without such capacity would improve spatial access to basic care from 74.9% to 83.0% of the population (uncertainty interval [UI] of 81.2% to 83.6%), providing access for an additional 2,169,714 Ghanaians. The availability of several low-cost resources could be better supplied by improvements in organization and training for orthopaedic trauma care. There is a critical need to advocate and provide funding for orthopaedic resources. These initiatives might be particularly effective if aimed at hospitals that could provide care to a large proportion of the population.

Narrative medicine and decision-making capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahr, Greg

2015-06-01

The author proposes a new model for the assessment of decision-making capacity based on the principles of narrative medicine. The narrative method proposed by the author addresses the hidden power realtionships implicit in the current model of capacity assessment. Sample cases are reviewed using the traditional model in comparison with the narrative model. Narrative medicine provides an effective model for the assessment of decision-making capacity. Deficiencies in the traditional model capacity assessment can be effectively addressed using narrative strategies. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Framework for assessing the capacity of a health ministry to conduct health policy processes--a case study from Tajikistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzoev, Tolib N; Green, Andrew; Van Kalliecharan, Ricky

2015-01-01

An adequate capacity of ministries of health (MOH) to develop and implement policies is essential. However, no frameworks were found assessing MOH capacity to conduct health policy processes within developing countries. This paper presents a conceptual framework for assessing MOH capacity to conduct policy processes based on a study from Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic where independence highlighted capacity challenges. The data collection for this qualitative study included in-depth interviews, document reviews and observations of policy events. Framework approach for analysis was used. The conceptual framework was informed by existing literature, guided the data collection and analysis, and was subsequently refined following insights from the study. The Tajik MOH capacity, while gradually improving, remains weak. There is poor recognition of wider contextual influences, ineffective leadership and governance as reflected in centralised decision-making, limited use of evidence, inadequate actors' participation and ineffective use of resources to conduct policy processes. However, the question is whether this is a reflection of lack of MOH ability or evidence of constraining environment or both. The conceptual framework identifies five determinants of robust policy processes, each with specific capacity needs: policy context, MOH leadership and governance, involvement of policy actors, the role of evidence and effective resource use for policy processes. Three underlying considerations are important for applying the capacity to policy processes: the need for clear focus, recognition of capacity levels and elements, and both ability and enabling environment. The proposed framework can be used in assessing and strengthening of the capacity of different policy actors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Propulsive efficiency and non- expert swimmers performance

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Tiago Barbosa

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Propulsive efficiency is one of the most interesting issues for competitive swimming researchers, has it presents significant relationships with the swimmer’s biophysical behavior and his/her performance. Although propulsive efficiency is a variable that has been quite studied in elite swimmers, there is no research on this issue in young and non-expert swimmers. Thus, the aim of this study was to: (i estimate the propulsive efficiency on non-expert swimmers; (ii identify biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters that are associated with propulsive efficiency; (iii identify the association between the propulsive efficiency and swim performance. Twenty-eight non-expert swimmers participated on this study. It was assessed the propulsive efficiency, biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance. The propulsive efficiency of non-expert swimmers is lower than data reported in the literature to higher competitive levels swimmers and there are no significant differences between boys and girls. It was also noted that several biomechanical and anthropometrical parameters, as well as, the swim performance are associated with the propulsive efficiency.

The TEX-I real-time expert system applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmal, N.; Doerbecker, K.; Leder, H.J.; Rueckert, M.; Schade, H.J.

1990-01-01

Within the German TEX-I Project, which was sponsored by the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology, several companies developed industrial applications of technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis and process control. The purpose of the diagnosis expert system reported here is to support the operators of the LMFBR SNR-300 in assessing plant status in real-time, based on readings from a large number of sensors. By online connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components and recommend operators response in abnormal conditions. The systems architecture consists of two basic subsystems, an inference engine and an intelligent process interface, implemented in Lisp on a Symbolics-Workstation. The inference engine has been derived from BABYLON, a hybrid shell developed by the German computer research institute GMD. This shell includes rules, prologue, constraints and an object oriented frame processor. The extended version has a component description language and a top-down diagnosis scheme including a mechanism of attention focusing. Inference run as independent, quasi-parallel processes. These so-called inference tasks can interrupt or abort each other, if higher priority events must be processed. The complete system is modelled in an object oriented matter and is divided into several subsystems and each subsystem into its physical components. At present the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulation is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behaviour of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers and cooling components. Additionally, the systems response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated. Several types of anomalies

Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Benjamin W. Abbott,; Jeremy B. Jones,; Edward A.G. Schuur,; F.S. Chapin, III; Bowden, William B.; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte,; Howard E. Epstein,; Michael D. Flannigan,; Tamara K. Harms,; Teresa N. Hollingsworth,; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Susan M. Natali,; Adrian V. Rocha,; Tank, Suzanne E.; Merrit R. Turetsky,; Jorien E. Vonk,; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.

2016-01-01

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

CONSTRUCTION INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN POTENTIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON THE BASIS OF EXPERT DATA

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Dmitriy N. Krymzin

2014-01-01

Full Text Available In article offers the hierarchical system of creation the integrated indicator of personnel capacity in the higher educationinstitution, based on value judgment ofteachers. The integrated assessment of level of personnel potential is constructedon the basis of formation of a large gradation number, characterizing such system indicators, as personnel structure, reproduction of scientific and scientific and pedagogical shots and productivity ofresearch and educational and methodical activity of personnel structure.

Depression in Schizophrenia: Associations With Cognition, Functional Capacity, Everyday Functioning, and Self-Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Harvey, Philip D; Twamley, Elizabeth W; Pinkham, Amy E; Depp, Colin A; Patterson, Thomas L

2017-05-01

Depressed mood has a complex relationship with self-evaluation of personal competence in multiple populations. The absence of depression may be associated with overestimation of abilities, while mild depression seems to lead to accurate self-assessment. Significant depression may lead to underestimation of functioning. In this study, we expand on our previous work by directly comparing the association between different levels of depression, everyday functioning, cognitive and functional capacity performance, and self-assessment of everyday functioning in a large (n = 406) sample of outpatients with schizophrenia. Participants with very low self-reported depression overestimated their everyday functioning compared with informant reports. Higher levels of depression were associated with more accurate self-assessment, but no subgroup of patients underestimated their functioning. Depressive symptom severity was associated with poorer informant-rated social functioning, but there were no differences in vocational functioning, everyday activities, cognitive performance, and functional capacity associated with the severity of self-reported depression. There was minimal evidence of impact of depression on most aspects of everyday functioning and objective test performance and a substantial relationship between depression and accuracy of self-assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Hippocampal volume change measurement: quantitative assessment of the reproducibility of expert manual outlining and the automated methods FreeSurfer and FIRST.

Science.gov (United States)

Mulder, Emma R; de Jong, Remko A; Knol, Dirk L; van Schijndel, Ronald A; Cover, Keith S; Visser, Pieter J; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

2014-05-15

To measure hippocampal volume change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), expert manual delineation is often used because of its supposed accuracy. It has been suggested that expert outlining yields poorer reproducibility as compared to automated methods, but this has not been investigated. To determine the reproducibilities of expert manual outlining and two common automated methods for measuring hippocampal atrophy rates in healthy aging, MCI and AD. From the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), 80 subjects were selected: 20 patients with AD, 40 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 20 healthy controls (HCs). Left and right hippocampal volume change between baseline and month-12 visit was assessed by using expert manual delineation, and by the automated software packages FreeSurfer (longitudinal processing stream) and FIRST. To assess reproducibility of the measured hippocampal volume change, both back-to-back (BTB) MPRAGE scans available for each visit were analyzed. Hippocampal volume change was expressed in μL, and as a percentage of baseline volume. Reproducibility of the 1-year hippocampal volume change was estimated from the BTB measurements by using linear mixed model to calculate the limits of agreement (LoA) of each method, reflecting its measurement uncertainty. Using the delta method, approximate p-values were calculated for the pairwise comparisons between methods. Statistical analyses were performed both with inclusion and exclusion of visibly incorrect segmentations. Visibly incorrect automated segmentation in either one or both scans of a longitudinal scan pair occurred in 7.5% of the hippocampi for FreeSurfer and in 6.9% of the hippocampi for FIRST. After excluding these failed cases, reproducibility analysis for 1-year percentage volume change yielded LoA of ±7.2% for FreeSurfer, ±9.7% for expert manual delineation, and ±10.0% for FIRST. Methods ranked the same for reproducibility of 1

The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brooks, N.; Adger, W.N.; Kelly, P.M. [University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom). School of Environmental Sciences

2005-07-01

We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity - one element of vulnerability - is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (author)

The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brooks, N.; Adger, W.N.; Kelly, P.M.

2005-01-01

We present a set of indicators of vulnerability and capacity to adapt to climate variability, and by extension climate change, derived using a novel empirical analysis of data aggregated at the national level on a decadal timescale. The analysis is based on a conceptual framework in which risk is viewed in terms of outcome, and is a function of physically defined climate hazards and socially constructed vulnerability. Climate outcomes are represented by mortality from climate-related disasters, using the emergency events database data set, statistical relationships between mortality and a shortlist of potential proxies for vulnerability are used to identify key vulnerability indicators. We find that 11 key indicators exhibit a strong relationship with decadally aggregated mortality associated with climate-related disasters. Validation of indicators, relationships between vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and the sensitivity of subsequent vulnerability assessments to different sets of weightings are explored using expert judgement data, collected through a focus group exercise. The data are used to provide a robust assessment of vulnerability to climate-related mortality at the national level, and represent an entry point to more detailed explorations of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. They indicate that the most vulnerable nations are those situated in sub-Saharan Africa and those that have recently experienced conflict. Adaptive capacity - one element of vulnerability - is associated predominantly with governance, civil and political rights, and literacy. (author)

The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

2016-04-01

Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

Assessment of balance indicators for key fleet segments and review of national reports on Member States efforts to achieve balance between fleet capacity and fishing opportunities (STECF-13-28)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abella, Alvaro J.; Accadia, Paolo; Berkenhagen, Jörg

The Expert Working Group meeting of the Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries EWG-13-16 on Review of national reports on Member States efforts to achieve balance between fleet capacity and fishing opportunities was from September 29 – October 4, 2013 in Edinburgh. The report...

An examination of expert systems activities within the nuclear industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernard, J.A.; Washio, Takashi.

1988-01-01

This paper provides an overview of a detailed evaluation that the authors recently completed on expert systems applications within the nuclear industry. That evaluation examined the motivation for utilizing expert systems, identified the areas to which they were being applied, and provided an assessment of their utility. Listed here are some of the salient findings of that report. (1) Utilities are developing their own artificial intelligence tools rather than using commercial products. (2) Few expert systems are being developed for the express purpose of capturing human expertise. (3) A number of successful expert systems have been developed to assist in plant design, management, and maintenance scheduling. (4) Interactive diagnostic systems are being developed for the analysis of physical processes that vary slowly. (5) Real-time diagnostic expert systems are currently at the cutting edge of the technology. (6) Operator adviser and emergency response expert systems constitute ∼25% of the total. (7) Research on the use of expert systems for reactor control is quite active. (8) Too few quantitative evaluations of the benefits of expert systems to reactor operators have been performed. The operator's need is for timely, factual information on plant status. Hence, the true challenge to expert systems is real-time diagnostics

The UK system of recognising qualified experts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bines, W.

2002-01-01

EURATOM Basic Safety Standards (BSS) Directives have long included requirements for the involvement of qualified experts, the definition of which has scarcely changed since at least 1976. The Directive requirement, in the definition of qualified expert,, for competent authorities to recognise the capacity to act as a qualified expert has been interpreted by Member States in widely differing ways, ranging from the minimalist or case by case to the highly detailed and prescriptive. In the United Kingdom (UK), the qualified expert for occupational radiation protection is the radiation protection adviser and the competent authority is the Health and Safety Executive (HSE). The Ionising Radiations Regulations 1985, which largely implemented the 1980 BSS Directive, required an employer to appoint one or more radiation protection advisers for the purpose of advising him as to the observance of these Regulations and other health and safety matters in connection with ionising radiation. The Regulations addressed the question of recognition by forbidding an employer to appoint a person as a radiation protection adviser unless: that person was suitably qualified and experienced; the employer had notified the Health and Safety Executive in writing of the intended appointment at least 28 days in advance, giving the name of the person and particulars of his qualifications and experience and the scope of the advice he would be required to give; and the employer had received from HSE an acknowledgement in writing of the notification. This system allowed HSE to follow up and query any apparently unsuitable potential appointments while applying a light overall administrative touch. The Approved Code of Practice supporting the Regulations included advice on the qualifications, experience and qualities that the employer should look for in a suitable radiation protection adviser

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Science.gov (United States)

Pedrini, Paolo; Brambilla, Mattia; Rolando, Antonio; Girardello, Marco

2016-01-01

Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds). For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community. PMID:26966659

Identifying key conservation threats to Alpine birds through expert knowledge

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dan E. Chamberlain

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Alpine biodiversity is subject to a range of increasing threats, but the scarcity of data for many taxa means that it is difficult to assess the level and likely future impact of a given threat. Expert opinion can be a useful tool to address knowledge gaps in the absence of adequate data. Experts with experience in Alpine ecology were approached to rank threat levels for 69 Alpine bird species over the next 50 years for the whole European Alps in relation to ten categories: land abandonment, climate change, renewable energy, fire, forestry practices, grazing practices, hunting, leisure, mining and urbanization. There was a high degree of concordance in ranking of perceived threats among experts for most threat categories. The major overall perceived threats to Alpine birds identified through expert knowledge were land abandonment, urbanization, leisure and forestry, although other perceived threats were ranked highly for particular species groups (renewable energy and hunting for raptors, hunting for gamebirds. For groups of species defined according to their breeding habitat, open habitat species and treeline species were perceived as the most threatened. A spatial risk assessment tool based on summed scores for the whole community showed threat levels were highest for bird communities of the northern and western Alps. Development of the approaches given in this paper, including addressing biases in the selection of experts and adopting a more detailed ranking procedure, could prove useful in the future in identifying future threats, and in carrying out risk assessments based on levels of threat to the whole bird community.

An expert panel approach to support risk-informed decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pulkkinen, U.; Simola, K.

2000-01-01

The report describes the expert panel methodology developed for supporting risk-informed decision making. The aim of an expert panel is to achieve a balanced utilisation of information and expertise from several disciplines in decision-making including probabilistic safety assessment as one decision criterion. We also summarise the application of the methodology in the STUK's RI-ISI (Risk-Informed In-Service Inspection) pilot study, where the expert panel approach was used to combine the deterministic information on degradation mechanisms and probabilistic information on pipe break consequences. The expert panel served both as a critical review of the preliminary results and as a decision support for the final definition of risk categories of piping. (orig.)

Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

2013-08-14

As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1999-12-01

In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

Institutional capacity and climate actions. Summary paper

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Willems, S.

2004-01-01

The aim of this paper is to explore the role of institutional capacity in selecting the most appropriate climate actions. More specifically, it investigates why, for some countries, institutional capacity may need to be considered as an important criterion for selecting future climate actions, alongside environmental, economic and/or political considerations. This paper is a synthesis of results of an OECD/IEA project undertaken in 2003 for the Annex I Expert Group, which led to several publications, namely a framework paper on Institutional Capacity and Climate Actions, three national cases studies, respectively on Mexico, India and Bulgaria, as well as a paper assessing the status of national inventory preparation in Annex I and non-Annex I Parties (OECD/IEA, 2003). The paper argues that the very nature of a country's institutional development suggests a progressive approach to climate actions, which takes into account the specificity of a country's existing institutional setting. More specifically, substantial changes in a country's existing institutions are likely to be required when particular levels or types of institutional capacities need to be developed, for example when these changes affect public governance as a whole. Finally, particular forms of actions may require significant changes in a country's institutional setting. For example, legally-binding quantified national targets tend to require significant institutional development in all functions of climate policy. With other approaches, such as those based on non-binding targets, sectoral targets or policies and measures, institutional development may be more progressive and targeted. Thus, when considering particular forms of climate actions, countries might benefit from investigating what kind of institutions are likely to be needed and whether they will be able to develop sufficient capacity in time to implement these actions. Overall, this analysis suggests a step-by-step, dynamic model for

From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie

2004-06-01

The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments

From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

2004-06-01

The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments.

A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

2011-01-01

A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

Plutonium - the ultrapoison? An expert's opinion about an expert opinion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoll, W.; Becker, K.

1989-01-01

In an expert opinion written by Professor H. Kuni, Marburg, for the North Rhine-Westphalian state government, plutonium is called by far the most dangerous element in the Periodic Table. The Marburg medical expert holds that even improved legal instruments are unable to warrant effective protection of the workers handling this material, in the light of the present standards of industrial safety, because of radiological conditions and measuring problems with plutonium isotopes. In this article by an internationally renowned expert in the field, the ideas expressed in the expert opinion about the toxicity of plutonium, the cause-and-effect relationship in radiation damage by plutonium, and recent findings about the toxicity are subjected to a critical review. On the basis of results of radiation protection and of case studies, the statements in the expert opinion are contrasted with facts which make them appear in a very different light. (orig./RB) [de

Expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour at nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reiman, L [Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, Helsinki (Finland). Dept. of Nuclear Safety

1994-12-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant includes an assessment of the probability of each event sequence that can lead to a reactor core damage and of their consequences. Despite increasing maturity of PSA methods, there are still several problems in their use. These include the assessment of human reliability and the impact of organizational factors on plant safety. The assessment of both these issues is based on expert judgment. Therefore, the use of expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour was studied theoretically and in practical case studies in this thesis. Human errors were analysed in two case studies. In the first study cognitive actions of control room operators were analysed. For this purpose methods were developed for the qualitative and quantitative phases of the analysis. Errors of test and maintenance personnel were analysed in the second case study. Especially the dependence of errors between sequential tasks performed in redundant subsystems of a safety system was studied. A method to assess organizational behaviour was developed and applied in the third case study. The three case studies demonstrated that expert judgment can be used in the analysis of human reliability and organizational behaviour taking into account the observations made and the remarks presented in the study. However, significant uncertainties are related with expert judgment. Recommendations are presented concerning the use of different methods. Also, some insights are presented into how reliance on expert judgment could be reduced. (241 refs., 20 figs., 36 tabs.).

Expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reiman, L.

1994-12-01

Probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of a nuclear power plant includes an assessment of the probability of each event sequence that can lead to a reactor core damage and of their consequences. Despite increasing maturity of PSA methods, there are still several problems in their use. These include the assessment of human reliability and the impact of organizational factors on plant safety. The assessment of both these issues is based on expert judgment. Therefore, the use of expert judgment in analysis of human and organizational behaviour was studied theoretically and in practical case studies in this thesis. Human errors were analysed in two case studies. In the first study cognitive actions of control room operators were analysed. For this purpose methods were developed for the qualitative and quantitative phases of the analysis. Errors of test and maintenance personnel were analysed in the second case study. Especially the dependence of errors between sequential tasks performed in redundant subsystems of a safety system was studied. A method to assess organizational behaviour was developed and applied in the third case study. The three case studies demonstrated that expert judgment can be used in the analysis of human reliability and organizational behaviour taking into account the observations made and the remarks presented in the study. However, significant uncertainties are related with expert judgment. Recommendations are presented concerning the use of different methods. Also, some insights are presented into how reliance on expert judgment could be reduced. (241 refs., 20 figs., 36 tabs.)

Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

Science.gov (United States)

Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

2018-02-01

Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

Radioactive waste management: the contribution of expert assessments to the implementation of safe management channels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besnus, F.; Jouve, A.C.

2011-01-01

The national Radioactive Materials and Waste Management (PNGMDR) sets objectives and defines waste management channels for all radioactive wastes produced in France. Within this framework, IRSN (Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety) expertise aims at assessing the consistency and robustness of the technical solutions set in place by the plan. As a result of this assessment, the main safety issues and priorities for upgrading the safety of the various facilities that will receive and treat waste are identified on the one hand, while possible foreseen weaknesses in terms of storage or treatment capacities are put into light on the other hand. To carry out such assessment, IRSN backs on its 'in depth' knowledge of facilities, acquired through the examination of each major step of waste management facility life (creation, commissioning, re-examination of safety...). This knowledge feeds in turn the examination of the waste management strategies implemented by operators. In addition, special attention is given to the achievement of waste packages of favourable properties as well as to the conditions for their safe disposal, since these two aspects are most often key factors for optimizing the safety of the whole management channel. By its capacity to overlook all steps of waste management channels, from production to final disposal, IRSN intends to contribute to the objective of enhancing the global safety of the management of radioactive waste. (authors)

Assessment of occupational risks to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: Validation of an empirical non-expert approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariam El-Zein

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The expert method of exposure assignment involves relying on chemists or hygienists to estimate occupational exposures using information collected on study subjects. Once the estimation method for a particular contaminant has been made available in the literature, it is not known whether a non-expert, briefly trained by an expert remaining available to answer ad hoc questions, can provide reliable exposure estimates. We explored this issue by comparing estimates of exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF obtained by an expert to those from a non-expert. Using a published exposure matrix, both the expert and non-expert independently calculated a weekly time-weighted average exposure for 208 maternal jobs by considering three main determinants: the work environment, magnetic field sources, and duration of use or exposure to given sources. Agreement between assessors was tested using the Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement. The overall mean difference in estimates between the expert and non-expert was 0.004 μT (standard deviation 0.104. The 95% limits of agreement were −0.20 μT and +0.21 μT. The work environments and exposure sources were almost always similarly identified but there were differences in estimating exposure duration. This occurred mainly when information collected from study subjects was not sufficiently detailed. Our results suggest that following a short training period and the availability of a clearly described method for estimating exposures, a non-expert can cost-efficiently and reliably assign exposure, at least to ELF-MF.

An Organizational Development Framework for Assessing Readiness and Capacity for Expanding Online Education

Science.gov (United States)

Piña, Anthony A.

2017-01-01

In this article, a popular model for organizational development is utilized as a framework for assessing the organizational readiness and capacity of educational institutions whose leaders wish to establish or expand their online/distance education programs. Examples of institutionalization factors to consider and alternative models for assessing…

Expert status and performance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mark A Burgman

Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

Medical Expert Systems Survey

OpenAIRE

Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

2017-01-01

International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

Observable phenomena that reveal medical students' clinical reasoning ability during expert assessment of their history taking: a qualitative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Haring, Catharina M; Cools, Bernadette M; van Gurp, Petra J M; van der Meer, Jos W M; Postma, Cornelis T

2017-08-29

During their clerkships, medical students are meant to expand their clinical reasoning skills during their patient encounters. Observation of these encounters could reveal important information on the students' clinical reasoning abilities, especially during history taking. A grounded theory approach was used to analyze what expert physicians apply as indicators in their assessment of medical students' diagnostic reasoning abilities during history taking. Twelve randomly selected clinical encounter recordings of students at the end of the internal medicine clerkships were observed by six expert assessors, who were prompted to formulate their assessment criteria in a think-aloud procedure. These formulations were then analyzed to identify the common denominators and leading principles. The main indicators of clinical reasoning ability were abstracted from students' observable acts during history taking in the encounter. These were: taking control, recognizing and responding to relevant information, specifying symptoms, asking specific questions that point to pathophysiological thinking, placing questions in a logical order, checking agreement with patients, summarizing and body language. In addition, patients' acts and the course, result and efficiency of the conversation were identified as indicators of clinical reasoning, whereas context, using self as a reference, and emotion/feelings were identified by the clinicians as variables in their assessment of clinical reasoning. In observing and assessing clinical reasoning during history taking by medical students, general and specific phenomena to be used as indicators for this process could be identified. These phenomena can be traced back to theories on the development and the process of clinical reasoning.

Inter-expert and intra-expert reliability in sleep spindle scoring

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter; Sørensen, Helge Bjarup Dissing

2015-01-01

Objectives To measure the inter-expert and intra-expert agreement in sleep spindle scoring, and to quantify how many experts are needed to build a reliable dataset of sleep spindle scorings. Methods The EEG dataset was comprised of 400 randomly selected 115 s segments of stage 2 sleep from 110...... with higher reliability than the estimation of spindle duration. Reliability of sleep spindle scoring can be improved by using qualitative confidence scores, rather than a dichotomous yes/no scoring system. Conclusions We estimate that 2–3 experts are needed to build a spindle scoring dataset...... with ‘substantial’ reliability (κ: 0.61–0.8), and 4 or more experts are needed to build a dataset with ‘almost perfect’ reliability (κ: 0.81–1). Significance Spindle scoring is a critical part of sleep staging, and spindles are believed to play an important role in development, aging, and diseases of the nervous...

Construct validity and expert benchmarking of the haptic virtual reality dental simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Suebnukarn, Siriwan; Chaisombat, Monthalee; Kongpunwijit, Thanapohn; Rhienmora, Phattanapon

2014-10-01

The aim of this study was to demonstrate construct validation of the haptic virtual reality (VR) dental simulator and to define expert benchmarking criteria for skills assessment. Thirty-four self-selected participants (fourteen novices, fourteen intermediates, and six experts in endodontics) at one dental school performed ten repetitions of three mode tasks of endodontic cavity preparation: easy (mandibular premolar with one canal), medium (maxillary premolar with two canals), and hard (mandibular molar with three canals). The virtual instrument's path length was registered by the simulator. The outcomes were assessed by an expert. The error scores in easy and medium modes accurately distinguished the experts from novices and intermediates at the onset of training, when there was a significant difference between groups (ANOVA, p<0.05). The trend was consistent until trial 5. From trial 6 on, the three groups achieved similar scores. No significant difference was found between groups at the end of training. Error score analysis was not able to distinguish any group at the hard level of training. Instrument path length showed a difference in performance according to groups at the onset of training (ANOVA, p<0.05). This study established construct validity for the haptic VR dental simulator by demonstrating its discriminant capabilities between that of experts and non-experts. The experts' error scores and path length were used to define benchmarking criteria for optimal performance.

The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

1983-06-01

An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

Comparison of a new expert elicitation model with the Classical Model, equal weights and single experts, using a cross-validation technique

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Flandoli, F. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Giorgi, E. [Dip.to di Matematica Applicata, Universita di Pisa, Pisa (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy); Aspinall, W.P. [Dept. of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, and Aspinall and Associates, Tisbury (United Kingdom); Neri, A., E-mail: neri@pi.ingv.it [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione di Pisa, via della Faggiola 32, 56126 Pisa (Italy)

2011-10-15

The problem of ranking and weighting experts' performances when quantitative judgments are being elicited for decision support is considered. A new scoring model, the Expected Relative Frequency model, is presented, based on the closeness between central values provided by the expert and known values used for calibration. Using responses from experts in five different elicitation datasets, a cross-validation technique is used to compare this new approach with the Cooke Classical Model, the Equal Weights model, and individual experts. The analysis is performed using alternative reward schemes designed to capture proficiency either in quantifying uncertainty, or in estimating true central values. Results show that although there is only a limited probability that one approach is consistently better than another, the Cooke Classical Model is generally the most suitable for assessing uncertainties, whereas the new ERF model should be preferred if the goal is central value estimation accuracy. - Highlights: > A new expert elicitation model, named Expected Relative Frequency (ERF), is presented. > A cross-validation approach to evaluate the performance of different elicitation models is applied. > The new ERF model shows the best performance with respect to the point-wise estimates.

Model error assessment of burst capacity models for energy pipelines containing surface cracks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yan, Zijian; Zhang, Shenwei; Zhou, Wenxing

2014-01-01

This paper develops the probabilistic characteristics of the model errors associated with five well-known burst capacity models/methodologies for pipelines containing longitudinally-oriented external surface cracks, namely the Battelle and CorLAS™ models as well as the failure assessment diagram (FAD) methodologies recommended in the BS 7910 (2005), API RP579 (2007) and R6 (Rev 4, Amendment 10). A total of 112 full-scale burst test data for cracked pipes subjected internal pressure only were collected from the literature. The model error for a given burst capacity model is evaluated based on the ratios of the test to predicted burst pressures for the collected data. Analysis results suggest that the CorLAS™ model is the most accurate model among the five models considered and the Battelle, BS 7910, API RP579 and R6 models are in general conservative; furthermore, the API RP579 and R6 models are markedly more accurate than the Battelle and BS 7910 models. The results will facilitate the development of reliability-based structural integrity management of pipelines. - Highlights: • Model errors for five burst capacity models for pipelines containing surface cracks are characterized. • Basic statistics of the model errors are obtained based on test-to-predicted ratios. • Results will facilitate reliability-based design and assessment of energy pipelines

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Science.gov (United States)

Lamb, Rob; Aspinall, Willy; Odbert, Henry; Wagener, Thorsten

2017-08-01

Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Assessment of HIV molecular surveillance capacity in the European Union, 2016.

Science.gov (United States)

Keating, Patrick; Pharris, Anastasia; Leitmeyer, Katrin; De Angelis, Stefania; Wensing, Annemarie; Amato-Gauci, Andrew J; Broberg, Eeva

2017-12-01

IntroductionExpanding access to HIV antiretroviral treatment is expected to decrease HIV incidence and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality. However, this may also result in increased HIV drug resistance (DR). Better monitoring and surveillance of HIV DR is required to inform treatment regimens and maintain the long term effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs. As there is currently no formal European Union (EU)-wide collection of HIV DR data, this study aimed to assess the current HIV molecular surveillance capacity in EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in order to inform the planning of HIV DR monitoring at EU level. Methods: Thirty EU/EEA countries were invited to participate in a survey on HIV molecular surveillance capacity, which also included laboratory aspects. Results: Among 21 responding countries, 13 reported using HIV sequence data (subtype and/or DR) for surveillance purposes at national level. Of those, nine stated that clinical, epidemiological and sequence data were routinely linked for analysis. Discussion/conclusion : We identified similarities between existing HIV molecular surveillance systems, but also found important challenges including human resources, data ownership and legal issues that would need to be addressed.Information on capacities should allow better planning of the phased introduction of HIV DR surveillance at EU/EEA level.

Rapid high-throughput assay to assess scavenging capacity index using DPPH.

Science.gov (United States)

Abderrahim, Fatima; Arribas, Silvia M; Gonzalez, M Carmen; Condezo-Hoyos, Luis

2013-11-15

A new microplate-adapted DPPH rapid assay was developed to assess the antioxidant capacity of pure compounds and foods. The assay was carried out in buffered medium (methanol: 10mmol/l Tris buffer pH 7.5, 1:1 v/v) and reaction was completed at 10min. The scavenging capacity index (SCI), a theoretical antioxidant parameter directly related to the antioxidant capacity of samples, was calculated. SCI for pure compounds: gallic acid (6.76±0.08), quercetin (7.89±0.24), catechin (6.05±0.23), trolox (2.32±0.03), ascorbic acid (2.52±0.15) and gluthatione (1.08±0.08) and foods (μmol DPPH scavenged/100ml): tropical juice (655.62±12.18), mediterraneo juice (702.87±11.13), apple juice (212.52±17.22), pomegranate juice (319.83±9.45), red grape nectar (1093.05±18.69), Don Simon orange juice (632.94±17.22) and date syrup (15992.34±250.7) were comparable to those in previous reports using the classic DPPH assay. The relative standard deviation (RSD) for the SCI on the same and different days was less than 8.12% in all cases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real time expert systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asami, Tohru; Hashimoto, Kazuo; Yamamoto, Seiichi

1992-01-01

Recently, aiming at the application to the plant control for nuclear reactors and traffic and communication control, the research and the practical use of the expert system suitable to real time processing have become conspicuous. In this report, the condition for the required function to control the object that dynamically changes within a limited time is presented, and the technical difference between the real time expert system developed so as to satisfy it and the expert system of conventional type is explained with the actual examples and from theoretical aspect. The expert system of conventional type has the technical base in the problem-solving equipment originating in STRIPS. The real time expert system is applied to the fields accompanied by surveillance and control, to which conventional expert system is hard to be applied. The requirement for the real time expert system, the example of the real time expert system, and as the techniques of realizing real time processing, the realization of interruption processing, dispersion processing, and the mechanism of maintaining the consistency of knowledge are explained. (K.I.)

TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

1988-01-01

TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

Expert assessment of preventive measures in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozerova, I I; Prilipko, V A; Myshkovska, A A

2013-01-01

An expert evaluation of preventive measures focused on population health maintenance in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement taking into account the limitations of the provisions of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine on the clean-up of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. The research survey was applied using a peer review method. The three-level (national, regional, district) expert workgroup was involved been employed within recovery of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. Professional experience of minimum 10 years, corresponding profile and current position were the requirements for selection. A simple streamlining the values of paired or consistent comparison was applied on the primary empirical data. The arrangements made in recent years by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and ministries engaged in clean-up and recovery from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident are ineffective. Costs from the Fund for the implementation of measures to clean-up the consequences of the Chornobyl disaster and social protection are reduced. There is no consensus among experts regarding some constraint of an action of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine "On the status and social protection of citizens affected by the Chornobyl disaster" on the principles of social protection and healthcare of the population living in contaminated areas. In addressing the social and health consequences of the Chornobyl disaster the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine just for a long time has passes no amendment to the legislation on the subject. At that there are several restrictions in force for a large number of articles of the existing laws that were adopted in 1991. The mentioned above exacerbates social strain and destroys the "citizen-state relationship". The extreme need has emerged in a comprehensive public review of existing laws with involvement of multidisciplinary group of experts to a "round table" to justify the draft laws. Ozerova Ju. Ju., Prylypko V. A., Myshkovska A. A

Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

K.J. Coppersmith; R.C. Perman; R.R. Youngs

2006-05-10

Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses provide the opportunity, indeed the requirement, to quantify the uncertainties in important inputs to the analysis. The locations of future earthquakes, their recurrence rates and maximum size, and the ground motions that will result at a site of interest are all quantities that require careful consideration because they are uncertain. The earliest PSHA models [Cornell, 1968] provided solely for the randomness or aleatory variability in these quantities. The most sophisticated seismic hazard models today, which include quantified uncertainties, are merely more realistic representations of this basic aleatory model. All attempts to quantify uncertainties require expert judgment. Further, all uncertainty models should endeavor to consider the range of views of the larger technical community at the time the hazard analysis is conducted. In some cases, especially for large projects under regulatory review, formal structured methods for eliciting expert judgments have been employed. Experience has shown that certain key elements are required for these assessments to be successful, including: (1) experts should be trained in probability theory, uncertainty quantification, and ways to avoid common cognitive biases; (2) comprehensive and user-friendly databases should be provided to the experts; (3) experts should be required to evaluate all potentially credible hypotheses; (4) workshops and other interactions among the experts and proponents of published viewpoints should be encouraged; (5) elicitations are best conducted in individual interview sessions; (6) feedback should be provided to the experts to give them insight into the significance of alternative assessments to the hazard results; and (7) complete documentation should include the technical basis for all assessments. Case histories are given from seismic hazard analyses in Europe, western North America, and the stable continental region of the United States.

Assessment of capacity for Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis in seven African universities: results from the CHEPSAA project

Science.gov (United States)

Mirzoev, Tolib; Lê, Gillian; Green, Andrew; Orgill, Marsha; Komba, Adalgot; Esena, Reuben K; Nyapada, Linet; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Amde, Woldekidan K; Nxumalo, Nonhlanhla; Gilson, Lucy

2014-01-01

The importance of health policy and systems research and analysis (HPSR+A) is widely recognized. Universities are central to strengthening and sustaining the HPSR+A capacity as they teach the next generation of decision-makers and health professionals. However, little is known about the capacity of universities, specifically, to develop the field. In this article, we report results of capacity self- assessments by seven universities within five African countries, conducted through the Consortium for Health Policy and Systems Analysis in Africa (CHEPSAA). The capacity assessments focused on both capacity ‘assets’ and ‘needs’, and covered the wider context, as well as organizational and individual capacity levels. Six thematic areas of capacity were examined: leadership and governance, organizations’ resources, scope of HPSR+A teaching and research, communication, networking and getting research into policy and practice (GRIPP), demand for HPRS+A and resource environment. The self-assessments by each university used combinations of document reviews, semi-structured interviews and staff surveys, followed by comparative analysis. A framework approach, guided by the six thematic areas, was used to analyse data. We found that HPSR+A is an international priority, and an existing activity in Africa, though still neglected field with challenges including its reliance on unpredictable international funding. All universities have capacity assets, such as ongoing HPSR+A teaching and research. There are, however, varying levels of assets (such as differences in staff numbers, group sizes and amount of HPSR+A teaching and research), which, combined with different capacity needs at all three levels (such as individual training, improvement in systems for quality assurance and fostering demand for HPSR+A work), can shape a future agenda for HPSR+A capacity strengthening. Capacity assets and needs at different levels appear related. Possible integrated strategies for

Personal factors influencing agreement between expert and self-reported assessments of an occupational exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Neilson, Heather K; Sass-Kortsak, Andrea; Lou, W Y Wendy; Purdham, James T

2007-01-01

This study aimed to identify personal factors associated with expert and respondent agreement on past occupational exposure. Epidemiologic data was collected from 1995 to 1998 in a community-based, case-control study of prostate cancer. Using longest jobs and excluding agreement on "never" exposure, self-reported and expert estimates of ever/ never exposure, by skin or ingestion, to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were compared. Agreement between respondents and the expert was 53.9 percent (N=1,038), with overreporting being more common than underreporting relative to the expert (31.8 percent versus 14.4 percent). In multiple logistic regression models, white-collar occupational status was significantly associated with overreporting (odds ratio [OR] = 0.142; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.095-0.211; blue-collar versus white-collar), while age was associated with underreporting (OR=1.077; 95 percent CI: 1.043-1.112; one-year increase). Neither job satisfaction nor risk perception appeared to confound other associations. In future studies, overreporting by white-collar workers might be avoided by providing clearer definitions of exposure, whereas elderly respondents may require aids to enhance exposure recall.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hansson, Anders; Bryngelsson, Marten

2009-01-01

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage-A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Linkoeping University, Centre for Climate Science and Policy Research, SE-60174 Norrkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Marten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: mrtn@kth.se

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS)-e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (i) the function and potential of CCS and (ii) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements.

Topics for application of expert systems for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trovato, S.A.; Aydin, F.

1992-01-01

Expert systems are an innovative form of computer software which offer to enhance productivity and improve operations of nuclear power plants. A survey and assessment of opportunities for application of this technology at Consolidated Edison Company of New York, Inc.'s (Con Edison) Indian Point 2 nuclear power plant was conducted. Eleven topics for expert systems are discussed in this paper. 1 ref., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Expert system for the reliability assessment of hydro-carbon transporting pipelines

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lukacs, J.; Nagy, G.; Toeroek, I. [Department of Mechanical Technology, University of Miskolc, Miskolc-Egyetemvaros (Hungary)

1998-12-31

Safety operation, condition monitoring, periodical inspection and rehabilitation of high-pressure hydro-carbon transporting pipelines are a complex problem. To answer arising questions is inconceivable without technical-critical evaluation of defects - originated during manufacturing or operation - can be found on the pipeline. This evaluation must be in line with requirements of our age, i.e. it has to assert such concept of which basis is not the `possible worst` but the `just happening wrong`. Solving these problems without application of computer resources is inconceivable in our time. The final purpose of the solution is the expert system and among the components of the expert system primarily the development of the knowledge base is needed. The paper demonstrates a possible structure of the knowledge base, furthermore its fundamental elements and their contents (defect types, evaluation possibilities of defects, categorisation of pipelines) and summaries the prospective advantages of its application. (orig.) 27 refs.

Assessment of Working Memory Capacity in Preschool Children Using the Missing Scan Task

Science.gov (United States)

Roman, Adrienne S.; Pisoni, David B.; Kronenberger, William G.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility and validity of a modified version of Buschke's missing scan methodology, the Missing Scan Task (MST), to assess working memory capacity (WMC) and cognitive control processes in preschool children 3-6?years in age. Forty typically developing monolingual English-speaking children between…

Critical Thinking Theory to Practice: Using the Expert's Thought Process as Guide for Learning and Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, Teresa A; Marchini, Leonardo; Cowen, Howard; Hartshorn, Jennifer E; Holloway, Julie A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Gratton, David; Solow, Catherine M; Colangelo, Nicholas; Johnsen, David C

2017-08-01

Critical thinking skills are essential for the successful dentist, yet few explicit skillsets in critical thinking have been developed and published in peer-reviewed literature. The aims of this article are to 1) offer an assessable critical thinking teaching model with the expert's thought process as the outcome, learning guide, and assessment instrument and 2) offer three critical thinking skillsets following this model: for geriatric risk assessment, technology decision making, and situation analysis/reflections. For the objective component, the student demonstrates delivery of each step in the thought process. For the subjective component, the student is judged to have grasped the principles as applied to the patient or case. This article describes the framework and the results of pilot tests in which students in one year at this school used the model in the three areas, earning scores of 90% or above on the assessments. The model was thus judged to be successful for students to demonstrate critical thinking skillsets in the course settings. Students consistently delivered each step of the thought process and were nearly as consistent in grasping the principles behind each step. As more critical thinking skillsets are implemented, a reinforcing network develops.

[Spanish validation of the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment interview to assess patients competence to consent treatment].

Science.gov (United States)

Alvarez Marrodán, Ignacio; Baón Pérez, Beatriz; Navío Acosta, Mercedes; López-Antón, Raul; Lobo Escolar, Elena; Ventura Faci, Tirso

2014-09-09

To validate the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) Spanish version, which assesses the mental capacity of patients to consent treatment, by examining 4 areas (Understanding, Appreciation, Reasoning and Expressing a choice). 160 subjects (80 Internal Medicine inpatients, 40 Psychiatric inpatients and 40 healthy controls). MacCAT-T, Mini-Mental Status Examination (MMSE). Feasibility study, reliability and validity calculations (against to gold standard of clinical expert). Mean duration of the MacCAT-T interview was 18min. Inter-rater reliability: Intraclass correlation coefficient for Understanding=0.98, Appreciation=0.97, Reasoning=0.98, Expressing a choice=0.91. Internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha): Understanding=0.87, for Appreciation=0.76, for Reasoning=0.86. Patients considered to be incapable (gold standard) scored lower in all the MacCAT-T areas. Poor performance on the MacCAT-T was related to cognitive impairment assessed by MMSE. Spanish version of the MacCAT-T is feasible, reliable, and valid for assessing the capacity of patients to consent treatment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

Experimental applications of an expert system to operator problem solving in process control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.; Jenkins, J.P.

1985-01-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) has sponsored a program to assess the effectiveness of expert systems for nuclear reactor operators. The project has included two human factors experimental evaluations of the Response Tree expert system, a prototype expert system for helping nuclear reactor operators respond to emergency conditions. This paper discusses the Response Tree expert system, the experiments which have been performed to test its effectiveness, and the results of the experiments. Reference is made to the accident at TMI. 12 refs

Response trees and expert systems for nuclear reactor operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nelson, W.R.

1984-02-01

The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a project performed by EG and G Idaho, Inc., at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to evaluate different display concepts for use in nuclear reactor control rooms. Included in this project is the evaluation of the response tree computer based decision aid and its associated displays. This report serves as an overview of the response tree methodology and how it has been implemented as a computer based decision aid utilizing color graphic displays. A qualitative assessment of the applicability of the response tree aid in the reactor control room is also made. Experience gained in evaluating the response tree aid is generalized to address a larger category of computer aids, those known as knowledge based expert systems. General characteristics of expert systems are discussed, as well as examples of their application in other domains. A survey of ongoing work on expert systems in the nuclear industry is presented, and an assessment of their potential applicability is made. Finally, recommendations for the design and evaluation of computer based decision aids are presented

Integrating Expert Knowledge into Mapping Ecosystem Services Trade-offs for Sustainable Forest Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrienne Grêt-Regamey

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Mountain ecosystems are highly sensitive to global change. In fact, the continued capacity of mountain regions to provide goods and services to society is threatened by the impact of environmental changes on ecosystems. Although mapping ecosystem services values is known to support sustainable resource management, the integration of spatially explicit local expert knowledge on ecosystem dynamics and social responses to global changes has not yet been integrated in the modeling process. This contribution demonstrates the importance of integrating local knowledge into the spatially explicit valuation of ecosystem services. Knowledge acquired by expert surveys flows into a GIS-based Bayesian Network for valuing forest ecosystem services under a land-use and a climate change scenario in a case study in the Swiss Alps. Results show that including expert knowledge in ecosystem services mapping not only reduces uncertainties considerably, but also has an important effect on the ecosystem services values. Particularly the iterative process between integrating expert knowledge into the modeling process and mapping ecosystem services guarantees a continuous improvement of ecosystem services values maps while opening a new way for mutual learning between scientists and stakeholders which might support adaptive resource management.

78 FR 66375 - Announcement of Funding Awards for the OneCPD Plus: Technical Assistance and Capacity Building...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-05

... via TTY by calling the toll-free Federal Information Relay Service during working hours at 800-877... expert statutory, regulatory, and technical support that improves the program knowledge, skills and capacity of HUD's customers and their partners. Capacity building efforts will be directed at advancing the...

Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane

2018-01-01

Introduction Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. Material and methods The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. Results A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room. PMID:29293635

Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane; Crochet, Patrice

2018-01-01

Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room.

Der Patient als Experte.

Science.gov (United States)

Dubs

1998-01-01

Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

Online-Expert: An Expert System for Online Database Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Zahir, Sajjad; Chang, Chew Lik

1992-01-01

Describes the design and development of a prototype expert system called ONLINE-EXPERT that helps users select online databases and vendors that meet users' needs. Search strategies are discussed; knowledge acquisition and knowledge bases are described; and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a decision analysis technique that ranks databases,…

Being an expert

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

2014-01-01

This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

IAEA OSART/EXPERT follow-up review mission completes assessment of actions taken by Paks Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-01-01

On 28 February 2004 the IAEA completed its follow-up review mission to assess the actions taken by Paks nuclear power plant (NPP) in response to the Agency's recommendations and suggestions made during the 2001 Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) mission and the 2003 Expert mission that investigated the fuel cleaning incident at the Paks NPP in Hungary. The mission was requested by the Hungarian Government to provide an independent assessment of the actions taken by Paks NPP. The IAEA team determined that the actions taken by Paks have resulted in tangible progress and concluded that all issues were either fully resolved or progressing satisfactorily. In a press conference, the team's conclusions in five areas were highlighted: management, Regulatory Oversight/Interface, operations and maintenance, including operating experience, radiation protection, emergency planning and preparedness, and transparency

Building and measuring infrastructure and capacity for community health assessment and health improvement planning in Florida.

Science.gov (United States)

Abarca, Christine; Grigg, C Meade; Steele, Jo Ann; Osgood, Laurie; Keating, Heidi

2009-01-01

COMPASS (Comprehensive Assessment, Strategic Success) is the Florida Department of Health's community health assessment and health improvement planning initiative. Since 2002, COMPASS built state and county health department infrastructure to support a comprehensive, systematic, and integrated approach to community health assessment and planning. To assess the capacity of Florida's 67 county health departments (CHDs) to conduct community health assessment and planning and to identify training and technical assistance needs, COMPASS surveyed the CHDs using a Web-based instrument annually from 2004 through 2008. Response rate to the survey was 100 percent annually. In 2007, 96 percent of CHDs reported conducting assessment and planning within the past 3 years; 74 percent used the MAPP (Mobilizing for Action through Planning and Partnerships) framework. Progress was greater for the organizational and assessment phases of the MAPP-based work; only 10 CHDs had identified strategic priorities in 2007, and even fewer had implemented strategies for improving health. In 2007, the most frequently requested types of training were measuring success, developing goals and action plans, and using qualitative data; technical assistance was most frequently requested for program evaluation and writing community health status reports. Florida's CHDs have increased their capacity to conduct community health assessment and planning. Questions remain about sustaining these gains with limited resources.

IAEA Sends International Fact-finding Expert Mission to Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2011-01-01

Full text: The International Atomic Energy Agency will dispatch an international expert fact-finding mission to Japan. Based upon the agreement between the IAEA and the Government of Japan, the mission, comprising nearly 20 international and IAEA experts from a dozen countries, will visit Japan between 24 May and 2 June 2011. Under the leadership of Mr. Mike Weightman, HM Chief Inspector of Nuclear Installations of the United Kingdom, the mission will conduct fact-finding activities at Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (NPS) site and in other locations. The expert mission will make a preliminary assessment of the safety issues linked with TEPCO's Fukushima Dai-ichi NPS accident following the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. During the mission, areas that need further exploration or assessment based on the IAEA safety standards will also be identified. In the course of the IAEA mission, the international experts will become acquainted with the Japanese lessons learned from the accident and will share their experience and expertise in their fields of competence with the Japanese authorities. Mr. Weightman will present the mission's report at the Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Safety organised by the IAEA in Vienna from 20 to 24 June 2011, as an important input in the process of reviewing and strengthening the global nuclear safety framework that will be launched by the Conference. (IAEA)

Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Lamb

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Scour (localised erosion during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.

Knowledge-Based Systems for the Assessment and Management of Bridge Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miyamoto, A.; Thoft-Christensen, Palle; Yan, B.

2004-01-01

. The aim of this paper is to summarize the finding of up-to-date research articles concerning the application of knowledge-based systems to assessment and management of structures and to illustrate the potential of such systems in the structural engineering. Two modern bridge management systems (BMS......It is becoming an important social problem to make maintenance and rehabilitation of existing infrastructures such as bridges, buildings, etc. The kernel of such structure management is to develop a method of safety assessment on items which include remaining life and load carrying capacity......'s) are presented in the paper. The first is a BMS to assess the performance and derive optimal strategies for inspection and maintenance of concrete structures using reliability based and knowledge based systems. The second is the concrete bridge rating expert system (BREX) to evaluate the performance of existing...

Using Information Theory to Assess the Communicative Capacity of Circulating MicroRNA

OpenAIRE

Finn, Nnenna A.; Searles, Charles D.

2013-01-01

The discovery of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) and their transport modalities (i.e. microparticles, exosomes, proteins and lipoproteins) has sparked theories regarding their role in intercellular communication. Here, we assessed the information transfer capacity of different miRNA transport modalities in human serum by utilizing basic principles of information theory. Zipf Statistics were calculated for each of the miRNA transport modalities identified in human serum. Our analyses revealed...

Assessment of Surgical and Trauma Capacity in Potosí, Bolivia.

Science.gov (United States)

Blair, Kevin J; Boeck, Marissa A; Gallardo Barrientos, José Luis; Hidalgo López, José Luis; Helenowski, Irene B; Nwomeh, Benedict C; Shapiro, Michael B; Swaroop, Mamta

Scaling up surgical and trauma care in low- and middle-income countries could prevent nearly 2 million annual deaths. Various survey instruments exist to measure surgical and trauma capacity, including Personnel, Infrastructure, Procedures, Equipment, and Supplies (PIPES) and International Assessment of Capacity for Trauma (INTACT). We sought to evaluate surgical and trauma capacity in the Bolivian department of Potosí using a combined PIPES and INTACT tool, with additional questions to further inform intervention targets. In June and July 2014 a combined PIPES and INTACT survey was administered to 20 government facilities in Potosí with a minimum of 1 operating room: 2 third-level, 10 second-level, and 8 first-level facilities. A surgeon, head physician, director, or obstetrician-gynecologist completed the survey. Additional personnel responded to 4 short-answer questions. Survey items were divided into subsections, and PIPES and INTACT indices calculated. Medians were compared via Wilcoxon rank sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Six of 20 facilities were located in the capital city and designated urban. Urban establishments had higher median PIPES (8.5 vs 6.7, P = .11) and INTACT (8.5 vs 6.9, P = .16) indices compared with rural. More than half of surgeons and anesthesiologists worked in urban hospitals. Urban facilities had higher median infrastructure and procedure scores compared with rural. Fifty-three individuals completed short-answer questions. Training was most desired in laparoscopic surgery and trauma management; less than half of establishments reported staff with trauma training. Surgical and trauma capacity in Potosí was most limited in personnel, infrastructure, and procedures at rural facilities, with greater personnel deficiencies than previously reported. Interventions should focus on increasing the number of surgical and anesthesia personnel in rural areas, with a particular focus on the reported desire for trauma management training. Results

Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

2015-09-01

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, parametric studies, and selection of system codes. The Cladding and Core Materials and Fuel Concepts task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment Task Force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (INL), while the Cladding Task Force will be chaired by a representative from France (Marie Moatti, Electricite de France [EdF]) and the Fuels Task Force will be chaired by a representative from Japan (Masaki Kurata, Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA]). This report provides an overview of the Systems Assessment Task Force charter and status of work accomplishment.

Transmission capacity assessment by probabilistic planning. An approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lammintausta, M.

2002-01-01

The Finnish electricity markets participate in the Scandinavian markets, Nord-Pool. The Finnish market is free for marketers, producers and consumers. All these participants can be seen as customers of the transmission network, which in turn can be considered to be a market place in which electricity can be sold and bought. The Finnish transmission network is owned and operated by an independent company, Fingrid that has the full responsibility of the Finnish transmission system. The available transfer capacity of a transmission route is traditionally limited by deterministic security constraints. More efficient and flexible network utilisation could be achieved with probabilistic planning methods. This report introduces a simple and practical probabilistic approach for transfer limit and risk assessment. The method is based on the economical benefit and risk predictions. It uses also the existing results of deterministic data and it could be used side by side with the deterministic method. The basic concept and necessary equations for expected risks of various market players have been derived for further developments. The outage costs and thereby the risks of the market participants depend on how the system operator reacts to the faults. In the Finnish power system consumers will usually experience no costs due to the faults because of meshed network and counter trade method preferred by the system operator. The costs to the producers and dealers are also low because of the counter trade method. The network company will lose the cost of reparation, additional losses and cost of regulation power because of counter trades. In case power flows will be rearranged drastically because of aggressive strategies used in the electricity markets, the only way to fulfil the needs of free markets is that the network operator buys regulation power for short-term problems and reinforces the network in the long-term situations. The reinforcement is done if the network can not be

System Experts and Decision Making Experts in Transdisciplinary Projects

Science.gov (United States)

Mieg, Harald A.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims at a better understanding of expert roles in transdisciplinary projects. Thus, the main purpose is the analysis of the roles of experts in transdisciplinary projects. Design/methodology/approach: The analysis of the ETH-UNS case studies from the point of view of the psychology of expertise and the sociology of professions…

Impact of Expert Teaching Quality on Novice Academic Performance in the Jigsaw Cooperative Learning Method

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, Roland; Hänze, Martin

2015-01-01

We assessed the impact of expert students' instructional quality on the academic performance of novice students in 12th-grade physics classes organized in an expert model of cooperative learning ("jigsaw classroom"). The instructional quality of 129 expert students was measured by a newly developed rating system. As expected, when…

Expert auditors’ services classification

OpenAIRE

Jolanta Wisniewska

2013-01-01

The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

Assessing in vivo fertilizing capacity of liquid-preserved boar semen according to the 'Hanover gilt model'.

Science.gov (United States)

Ardón, F; Döhring, A; Le Thi, X; Weitze, K F; Waberski, D

2003-04-01

The goal of this study was to determine the ability of the Hanover gilt model to assess in vivo fertilizing capacity of preserved sperm and to consider whether any modifications to this model were needed. This model evaluates the fertilizing capacity of semen based on the fertilization rate, the rate of normal embryos and the accessory sperm count of 3-5-day embryos. Its distinguishing characteristics are the use of one-time insemination of sperm in reduced numbers, of spontaneously ovulating gilts and of ovulation detection through ultrasound examination of ovaries. Reduced sperm numbers allow for an accurate evaluation of the fertilizing potential of different semen treatments, thereby avoiding the compensatory effect of doses calibrated to maximize fertility. The model's usefulness was assessed in a trial run designed to compare the fertilizing capacity of liquid boar semen diluted into two different extenders. The diluent, the boar and the backflow, had no significant effect on any of the parameters studied. Gilts inseminated less than 24 h before ovulation had a significantly higher (p semen), while using relatively few gilts and little time.

Assessment of health facility capacity to provide newborn care in Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Senegal, and Tanzania.

Science.gov (United States)

Winter, Rebecca; Yourkavitch, Jennifer; Wang, Wenjuan; Mallick, Lindsay

2017-12-01

Despite the importance of health facility capacity to provide comprehensive care, the most widely used indicators for global monitoring of maternal and child health remain contact measures which assess women's use of services only and not the capacity of health facilities to provide those services; there is a gap in monitoring health facilities' capacity to provide newborn care services in low and middle income countries. In this study we demonstrate a measurable framework for assessing health facility capacity to provide newborn care using open access, nationally-representative Service Provision Assessment (SPA) data from the Demographic Health Surveys Program. In particular, we examine whether key newborn-related services are available at the facility (ie, service availability, measured by the availability of basic emergency obstetric care (BEmOC) signal functions, newborn signal functions, and routine perinatal services), and whether the facility has the equipment, medications, training and knowledge necessary to provide those services (ie, service readiness, measured by general facility requirements, equipment, medicines and commodities, and guidelines and staffing) in five countries with high levels of neonatal mortality and recent SPA data: Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Senegal, and Tanzania. In each country, we find that key services and commodities needed for comprehensive delivery and newborn care are missing from a large percentage of facilities with delivery services. Of three domains of service availability examined, scores for routine care availability are highest, while scores for newborn signal function availability are lowest. Of four domains of service readiness examined, scores for general requirements and equipment are highest, while scores for guidelines and staffing are lowest. Both service availability and readiness tend to be highest in hospitals and facilities in urban areas, pointing to substantial equity gaps in the availability of essential

The Expert System For Safety Assesment Of Kartini Reactor Operation And Maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Syarip

2000-01-01

An expert system for safety assessment of Kartini reactor operation and maintenance based on fuzzy logic method has been made. The expert system is developed from the Fuzzy Expert System Tools (FEST), i.e. by developing the knowledge base and data base files of Kartini research reactor system and operations with an inference engine based on FEST. The knowledge base is represented in the procedural knowledge as heuristic rules or generally known as rule-base in the from of If-then rule. The fuzzy inference process and the conclusion of the rule is done by FEST based on direct chaining method with interactive as well as non-interactive modes. The safety assessment of Kartini reactor based on this method gives more realistic value than the conventional method or binary logic

Expert opinions on carbon dioxide capture and storage. A framing of uncertainties and possibilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansson, Anders [Linkoeping University, Department of Technology and Social Change, SE-58183 Linkoeping (Sweden); Bryngelsson, Maarten [KTH, School of Chemical Sciences, Teknikringen 50, SE-10044 Stockholm (Sweden)

2009-06-15

There are many uncertainties and knowledge gaps regarding the development of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) - e.g., when it comes to costs, life-cycle effects, storage capacity and permanence. In spite of these uncertainties and barriers, the CCS research community is generally very optimistic regarding CCS' development. The discrepancy between the uncertainties and the optimism is the point of departure in this study, which is based on interviews with 24 CCS experts. The aim is to analyse experts' framings of CCS with focus on two key aspects: (1) the function and potential of CCS and (2) uncertainties. The optimism among the CCS experts is tentatively explained. The interpretative flexibility of CCS is claimed to be an essential explanation for the optimism. CCS is promoted from a wide variety of perspectives, e.g., solidarity and peace, bridge to a sustainable energy system, sustaining the modern lifestyle and compatibility with the fossil fuel lock-in. Awareness of the uncertainties and potential over-optimism is warranted within policy and decision making as they often rely on scientific forecasts and experts' judgements. (author)

PNW cetacean muscle biochemistry - Muscle Myoglobin Content and Acid Buffering Capacity of Cetaceans from the Pacific Northwest to Assess Dive Capacity and the Development of Diving Capabilities

Data.gov (United States)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project assesses the development of two important skeletal muscle adaptations for diving (enhanced myoglobin content and acid buffering capacities) in a range...

Expert judgment and uncertainty regarding the protection of imperiled species.

Science.gov (United States)

Heeren, Alexander; Karns, Gabriel; Bruskotter, Jeremy; Toman, Eric; Wilson, Robyn; Szarek, Harmony

2017-06-01

Decisions concerning the appropriate listing status of species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA) can be controversial even among conservationists. These decisions may determine whether a species persists in the near term and have long-lasting social and political ramifications. Given the ESA's mandate that such decisions be based on the best available science, it is important to examine what factors contribute to experts' judgments concerning the listing of species. We examined how a variety of factors (such as risk perception, value orientations, and norms) influenced experts' judgments concerning the appropriate listing status of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Experts were invited to complete an online survey examining their perceptions of the threats grizzly bears face and their listing recommendation. Although experts' assessments of the threats to this species were strongly correlated with their recommendations for listing status, this relationship did not exist when other cognitive factors were included in the model. Specifically, values related to human use of wildlife and norms (i.e., a respondent's expectation of peers' assessments) were most influential in listing status recommendations. These results suggest that experts' decisions about listing, like all human decisions, are subject to the use of heuristics (i.e., decision shortcuts). An understanding of how heuristics and related biases affect decisions under uncertainty can help inform decision making about threatened and endangered species and may be useful in designing effective processes for protection of imperiled species. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shin-Ruoh Juang

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

Expert system for controlling plant growth in a contained environment

Science.gov (United States)

May, George A. (Inventor); Lanoue, Mark Allen (Inventor); Bethel, Matthew (Inventor); Ryan, Robert E. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

In a system for optimizing crop growth, vegetation is cultivated in a contained environment, such as a greenhouse, an underground cavern or other enclosed space. Imaging equipment is positioned within or about the contained environment, to acquire spatially distributed crop growth information, and environmental sensors are provided to acquire data regarding multiple environmental conditions that can affect crop development. Illumination within the contained environment, and the addition of essential nutrients and chemicals are in turn controlled in response to data acquired by the imaging apparatus and environmental sensors, by an "expert system" which is trained to analyze and evaluate crop conditions. The expert system controls the spatial and temporal lighting pattern within the contained area, and the timing and allocation of nutrients and chemicals to achieve optimized crop development. A user can access the "expert system" remotely, to assess activity within the growth chamber, and can override the "expert system".

Expert systems for space power supply: design, analysis, and evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cooper, R.S.; Thomson, M.K.; Hoshor, A.

1987-01-01

The authors evaluated the feasibility of applying expert systems to the conceptual design, analysis, and evaluation of space power supplies in particular, and complex systems in general. To do this, they analyzed the space power supply design process and in associated knowledge base, and characterized them in a form suitable for computer emulation of a human expert. The existing expert system tools and the results achieved with them were evaluated to assess their applicability to power system design. They applied some new concepts for combining program architectures (modular expert systems and algorithms) with information about the domain to create a deep system for handling the complex design problem. They authors developed, programmed and tested NOVICE, a code to solve a simplified version of a scoping study of a wide variety of power supply types for a broad range of missions, as a concrete feasibility demonstration

Evolving Regulatory Processes Used by Students and Experts in the Acquiring of Improvisational Skills: A Qualitative Study

Science.gov (United States)

de Bruin, Leon R.

2018-01-01

The way an improviser practices is a vital and significant aspect to a musician's means and capacities of expression. Expert music performers utilize extensive self-regulatory processes involving planning, strategic development, and systemized approaches to learning and reflective practice. Scholars posit that these processes are constructivist…

Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muhammad Arfan

2018-02-01

Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

Representation of Solar Capacity Value in the ReEDS Capacity Expansion Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sigrin, B. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sullivan, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ibanez, E. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Margolis, R. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2014-03-01

An important issue for electricity system operators is the estimation of renewables' capacity contributions to reliably meeting system demand, or their capacity value. While the capacity value of thermal generation can be estimated easily, assessment of wind and solar requires a more nuanced approach due to the resource variability. Reliability-based methods, particularly assessment of the Effective Load-Carrying Capacity, are considered to be the most robust and widely-accepted techniques for addressing this resource variability. This report compares estimates of solar PV capacity value by the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) capacity expansion model against two sources. The first comparison is against values published by utilities or other entities for known electrical systems at existing solar penetration levels. The second comparison is against a time-series ELCC simulation tool for high renewable penetration scenarios in the Western Interconnection. Results from the ReEDS model are found to compare well with both comparisons, despite being resolved at a super-hourly temporal resolution. Two results are relevant for other capacity-based models that use a super-hourly resolution to model solar capacity value. First, solar capacity value should not be parameterized as a static value, but must decay with increasing penetration. This is because -- for an afternoon-peaking system -- as solar penetration increases, the system's peak net load shifts to later in the day -- when solar output is lower. Second, long-term planning models should determine system adequacy requirements in each time period in order to approximate LOLP calculations. Within the ReEDS model we resolve these issues by using a capacity value estimate that varies by time-slice. Within each time period the net load and shadow price on ReEDS's planning reserve constraint signals the relative importance of additional firm capacity.

THE MODEL OF EXPERT SYSTEM FOR SCIENTIFIC PROJECTS EVALUATION IN HIGHER EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Олександр Михайлович ВОЗНИЙ

2015-05-01

Full Text Available There have been proposed the model of the expert system for the assessment of research projects in higher educational institutions, based on estimates of probability. It allows to rank alternative projects and scenarios. The model is implemented through the software "Small expert system." The principle of calculating the probability of approval of research projects, which form the basis of the expert system, is based on Bayes' theorem. Expert system calculates the probability of approval of research projects by Ministry of Science and Education on the basis of the responses to questions about the content of the request for the execution of research projects. Questions are formed on the basis of the criteria by which experts of state authorities evaluate scientific research projects.

What defines an Expert? - Uncertainty in the interpretation of seismic data

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, C. E.

2008-12-01

Studies focusing on the elicitation of information from experts are concentrated primarily in economics and world markets, medical practice and expert witness testimonies. Expert elicitation theory has been applied in the natural sciences, most notably in the prediction of fluid flow in hydrological studies. In the geological sciences expert elicitation has been limited to theoretical analysis with studies focusing on the elicitation element, gaining expert opinion rather than necessarily understanding the basis behind the expert view. In these cases experts are defined in a traditional sense, based for example on: standing in the field, no. of years of experience, no. of peer reviewed publications, the experts position in a company hierarchy or academia. Here traditional indicators of expertise have been compared for significance on affective seismic interpretation. Polytomous regression analysis has been used to assess the relative significance of length and type of experience on the outcome of a seismic interpretation exercise. Following the initial analysis the techniques used by participants to interpret the seismic image were added as additional variables to the analysis. Specific technical skills and techniques were found to be more important for the affective geological interpretation of seismic data than the traditional indicators of expertise. The results of a seismic interpretation exercise, the techniques used to interpret the seismic and the participant's prior experience have been combined and analysed to answer the question - who is and what defines an expert?

Prioritizing risks via several expert perspectives with application to runway safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rogerson, Ellen C.; Lambert, James H.

2012-01-01

Factor hierarchies have been widely used in the literature to represent the view of an expert of what factors most contribute to reliability or safety. The methods for rating and aggregating the influences across a set of expert-elicited factors to risk or reliability are well known as multiple criteria decision analysis. This paper describes a method for distinguishing levels of risk across a set of locations via the use of multiple factor hierarchies. The method avoids averaging across experts and is thus useful for situations where experts disagree and where an absence of expert consensus on the causative or contributing factors is important information for risk management. A case study demonstrates using seven expert perspectives on the airport-specific factors that can contribute to runway incursions. The results are described for eighty towered airports in the US. The expert perspectives include differing relative emphases across the following set of factors: airport geometry, operations, weather, geography, and days since last safety review. Future work is suggested to include human factors issues as pilot-and-controller communications styles at airports. - Highlights: ► We examine influential factors in seven expert perspectives on the problem domain. ► We assess eighty US airports with qualitative measurement scales for each risk factor. ► Results show robustness and sensitivity of the risk index to expert perspective. ► We examine factors of several types including runway geometry, operations, weather, and geography.

Climate Change and Infectious Disease Risk in Western Europe: A Survey of Dutch Expert Opinion on Adaptation Responses and Actors.

Science.gov (United States)

Akin, Su-Mia; Martens, Pim; Huynen, Maud M T E

2015-08-18

There is growing evidence of climate change affecting infectious disease risk in Western Europe. The call for effective adaptation to this challenge becomes increasingly stronger. This paper presents the results of a survey exploring Dutch expert perspectives on adaptation responses to climate change impacts on infectious disease risk in Western Europe. Additionally, the survey explores the expert sample's prioritization of mitigation and adaptation, and expert views on the willingness and capacity of relevant actors to respond to climate change. An integrated view on the causation of infectious disease risk is employed, including multiple (climatic and non-climatic) factors. The results show that the experts consider some adaptation responses as relatively more cost-effective, like fostering interagency and community partnerships, or beneficial to health, such as outbreak investigation and response. Expert opinions converge and diverge for different adaptation responses. Regarding the prioritization of mitigation and adaptation responses expert perspectives converge towards a 50/50 budgetary allocation. The experts consider the national government/health authority as the most capable actor to respond to climate change-induced infectious disease risk. Divergence and consensus among expert opinions can influence adaptation policy processes. Further research is necessary to uncover prevailing expert perspectives and their roots, and compare these.

Assessment of children's capacity to consent for research: a descriptive qualitative study of researchers' practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Barbara E; Stasiulis, Elaine; Gutfreund, Shawna; McDonald, Maria; Dade, Lauren

2011-08-01

In Canadian jurisdictions without specific legislation pertaining to research consent, the onus is placed on researchers to determine whether a child is capable of independently consenting to participate in a research study. Little, however, is known about how child health researchers are approaching consent and capacity assessment in practice. The aim of this study was to explore and describe researchers' current practices. The study used a qualitative descriptive design consisting of 14 face-to-face interviews with child health researchers and research assistants in Southern Ontario. Transcribed interviews were analysed for common themes. Procedures for assessing capacity varied considerably from the use of age cutoffs to in-depth engagement with each child. Three key issues emerged from the accounts: (1) requirements that consent be provided by a single person thwarted researchers' abilities to support family decision-making; (2) little practical distinction was made between assessing if a child was capable, versus determining if study information had been adequately explained by the researcher; and (3) participants' perceived that review boards' requirements may conflict with what they considered ethical consent practices. The results suggest that researchers' consent and capacity knowledge and skills vary considerably. Perceived discrepancies between ethical practice and ethics boards' requirements suggest the need for dialogue, education and possibly ethics board reforms. Furthermore we propose, where appropriate, a 'family decision-making' model that allows parents and their children to consent together, thereby shifting the focus from separate assent and consent procedures to approaches that appropriately engage the child and family.

The assessment of visually impaired persons working capacities using electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. I. Razumovsky

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Aim was to analyze working capacities of visually impaired persons by means of complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination.Materials and methods. Standard clinical ophthalmologic examination (visual acuity measurement, refractometry, biomicroscopy, ophthalmoscopy as well as electrophysiological (electrooculography, electrical sensitivity of the eye, critical flicker fusion frequency and ophthalmic ergonomics tests (accommodation measurement, professional testing using automated system «Proftest-1» were performed.Results. Complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics tests were performed in 20 visually impaired persons. Their results revealed direct correlation between electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics indices.Conclusion. Working capacities of visually impaired persons can be assessed reliably using complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination only.

The assessment of visually impaired persons working capacities using electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. I. Razumovsky

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Aim was to analyze working capacities of visually impaired persons by means of complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination.Materials and methods. Standard clinical ophthalmologic examination (visual acuity measurement, refractometry, biomicroscopy, ophthalmoscopy as well as electrophysiological (electrooculography, electrical sensitivity of the eye, critical flicker fusion frequency and ophthalmic ergonomics tests (accommodation measurement, professional testing using automated system «Proftest-1» were performed.Results. Complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics tests were performed in 20 visually impaired persons. Their results revealed direct correlation between electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics indices.Conclusion. Working capacities of visually impaired persons can be assessed reliably using complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination only.

Assessing the risk of pesticide environmental impact in several Argentinian cropping systems with a fuzzy expert indicator.

Science.gov (United States)

Arregui, María C; Sánchez, Daniel; Althaus, Rafael; Scotta, Roberto R; Bertolaccini, Isabel

2010-07-01

The introduction of transgenic soybean (Glycine max, L.) varieties resistant to glyphosate (GR soybeans) has rapidly expanded in Argentina, increasing pesticide use where only grasslands were previously cultivated. The authors compared an estimate of environmental risk for different crops and active ingredients using the IPEST index, which is based on a fuzzy-logic expert system. For IPEST calculations, four modules are defined, one reflecting the rate of application, the other three reflecting the risk for groundwater, surface water and air. The input variables are pesticide properties, site-specific conditions and characteristics of the pesticide application. The expert system calculates the value of modules according to the degree of membership of the input variables to the fuzzy subsets F (favourable) and U (unfavourable), and they can be aggregated following sets of decision rules. IPEST integrated values of >or= 7 reflect low environmental risk, and values of environmental contamination, and they are mainly used in maize. Groundwater was the most affected compartment. Fuzzy logic provided an easy tool combining different environmental components with pesticide properties to give a simple and accessible risk assessment. These findings provide information about active ingredients that should be replaced in order to protect water and air from pesticide contamination. Copyright (c) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

A new way to ask the experts: Rating radioactive waste risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerr, R.A.

1996-01-01

The possible risks of a proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain include the dozen or more young volcanos near by. Now some earth scientists have a new approach to evaluating hazards accounting for uncertainty at every step - 'expert elicitation.' This pulls together a panel of experts, carefully assesses the uncertainties of each of their views then mathematically combines their risk estimates along with the accompanying uncertainties. The article goes on to describe just such a panel which considered seismic hazards to Yucca Mountain, how they came to their conclusions, the arguments about the conclusions, and the future of expert elicitation in evaluating the risks of nuclear waste disposal

Delegating Decisions to Experts

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

2004-01-01

We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

Consensus modeling to develop the farmers' market readiness assessment and decision instrument.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Eunlye; Dalton, Jarrod; Ngendahimana, David; Bebo, Pat; Davis, Ashley; Remley, Daniel; Smathers, Carol; Freedman, Darcy A

2017-09-01

Nutrition-related policy, system, and environmental (PSE) interventions such as farmers' markets have been recommended as effective strategies for promoting healthy diet for chronic disease prevention. Tools are needed to assess community readiness and capacity factors influencing successful farmers' market implementation among diverse practitioners in different community contexts. We describe a multiphase consensus modeling approach used to develop a diagnostic tool for assessing readiness and capacity to implement farmers' market interventions among public health and community nutrition practitioners working with low-income populations in diverse contexts. Modeling methods included the following: phase 1, qualitative study with community stakeholders to explore facilitators and barriers influencing successful implementation of farmers' market interventions in low-income communities; phase 2, development of indicators based on operationalization of qualitative findings; phase 3, assessment of relevance and importance of indicators and themes through consensus conference with expert panel; phase 4, refinement of indicators based on consensus conference; and phase 5, pilot test of the assessment tool. Findings illuminate a range of implementation factors influencing farmers' market PSE interventions and offer guidance for tailoring intervention delivery based on levels of community, practitioner, and organizational readiness and capacity.

Self-evaluation on Capacity Building in Finland: Report of the Committee for Nuclear Energy Competence in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isotalo, Jaana; Aurela, Jorma

2014-01-01

Lessons learned: • In Finland the most important result of the CB self-evaluation was the process itself. Commitment to this work and results by the experts and organizations are very important. • There should be a broad cooperation in the national capacity building work. • Complicated queries end in thin catch - also endless patience is needed. • All definitions should be agreed and the rules should be clear (plans of the organizations). Quality takes time. • Reserve enough time and resources. In the Finnish case the national effort forced MEE to leave important international projects aside. • It pays to be active with media also during the Self-Assessment

Expert and non-expert groups perception of LILW repository site selection procedure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zeleznik, N.; Polic, M.

2001-01-01

Slovenia is now in the process of the site selection for a low and intermediate level radioactive waste (LILW) repository. Earlier searches for the LILW repository site confronted the Agency for radwaste management (ARAO) with a number of problems, mainly concerning the contacts with the local communities and their willingness to accept the repository. Therefore the Agency started with a new, so-called mixed mode approach to the site selection, where the special role of a mediator is introduced. The mediator represents the link between the investor and the local community, and facilitates the communication and negotiations between both. In this study we try to find out how people perceive the mediating process and conditions under which the LILW repository would be accepted in the local community. Therefore a special survey was conducted. The results showed some of the conditions under which participants would possibly accept the LILW repository. Differences in the perception between non-expert and expert groups were demonstrated and analysed, especially in the assessment of the consequences of LILW repository construction on the environment. Also the socio-psychological influences of the LILW repository were noted and examined. Consequences and recommendations for future work on the site selection procedure were prepared on the basis of the research results.(author)

Application of expert systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Basden, A

1983-11-01

This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

Category Specific Knowledge Modulate Capacity Limitations of Visual Short-Term Memory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dall, Jonas Olsen; Watanabe, Katsumi; Sørensen, Thomas Alrik

2016-01-01

We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects by investiga...... are in line with the theoretical interpretation that visual short-term memory reflects the sum of the reverberating feedback loops to representations in long-term memory.......We explore whether expertise can modulate the capacity of visual short-term memory, as some seem to argue that training affects capacity of short-term memory [13] while others are not able to find this modulation [12]. We extend on a previous study [3] demonstrating expertise effects......), and expert observers (Japanese university students). For both the picture and the letter condition we find no performance difference in memory capacity, however, in the critical hiragana condition we demonstrate a systematic difference relating expertise differences between the groups. These results...

Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

Science.gov (United States)

Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

2017-08-15

We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Regional regression models of percentile flows for the contiguous United States: Expert versus data-driven independent variable selection

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geoffrey Fouad

2018-06-01

New hydrological insights for the region: A set of three variables selected based on an expert assessment of factors that influence percentile flows performed similarly to larger sets of variables selected using a data-driven method. Expert assessment variables included mean annual precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and baseflow index. Larger sets of up to 37 variables contributed little, if any, additional predictive information. Variables used to describe the distribution of basin data (e.g. standard deviation were not useful, and average values were sufficient to characterize physical and climatic basin conditions. Effectiveness of the expert assessment variables may be due to the high degree of multicollinearity (i.e. cross-correlation among additional variables. A tool is provided in the Supplementary material to predict percentile flows based on the three expert assessment variables. Future work should develop new variables with a strong understanding of the processes related to percentile flows.

Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

2015-10-15

In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic

Counselor Expert System | Debretsion | Zede Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An expert system plays an important role on alleviating primarily shortage of experts in a specific area of interest. With the help of an expert system, personnel with little expertise can solve problems that require expert knowledge. In this paper all major aspects of an expert system development have been presented.

Expert System for Quality Assessment in "Tibiscus" University

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catalin Tuican

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The periodical evaluation of the teaching staff in „Tibiscus” University bases on the specifications of The Romanian Agency for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (Agenţia Română de Asigurare a Calităţii în Învăţământul Superior, ARACIS namely : „The quality of the teaching and researching staff The universities must dispose of teaching staff which, as number and functional base, must be correctly allocated to the total number of students, depending on the study domain, and regarding the qualifications it must depend on the specific of the study program and the proposed quality objectives.” This paper presents the implementation of an expert system, offering to the students the possibility to perform the evaluation in a modern way and to the evaluation committee a quick access to all necessary data.

[Psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers in Germany].

Science.gov (United States)

Sieberer, Marcel; Ziegenbein, Marc; Eckhardt, Gudrun; Machleidt, Wielant; Calliess, Iris T

2011-01-01

To investigate the frequency of traumatisation, suicidality and given diagnoses in expert opinions on asylum seekers and to describe the sociodemographic characteristics of this population. The psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers, furnished in an 8-year-period at Hannover Medical School, were analysed retrospectively for qualitative and quantitative characteristics. 62 psychiatric expert opinions on asylum seekers were included in this study. The asylum seekers originated from 18 different countries, mainly from Turkey and former Yugoslavia. Most expert opinions were given in secondary asylum procedures, i. e. after the initial asylum request had been rejected. The asylum seekers reported on traumatisation in 82.3 %. The most frequently reported forms of traumatisation were rape in female, and torture in male persons. According to ICD-10 or DSM-IV-R criteria posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) was the most frequent diagnosis (74.1 %) in this study. The second most common diagnoses were depressive disorders (ICD-10: F32.x in 33.9 % and ICD-10: F33.x in 25.9 %). Suicidal tendency was found in 56.5 % of the asylum seekers. Cultural differences, language barriers, a heavy burden by psychological symptoms, and clinical severity are difficulties in the process of psychiatric assessment of refugees in legal asylum procedures. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

On the use of expert judgments to estimate the pressure increment in the Sequoyah containment at vessel breach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chhibber, S.; Apostolakis, G.E.; Okrent, D.

1994-01-01

The use of expert judgments in probabilistic risk assessments has become common. Simple aggregation methods have often been used with the result that expert biases and interexpert dependence are often neglected. Sophisticated theoretical models for the use of expert opinions have been proposed that offer ways of incorporating expert biases and dependence, but they have not found wide acceptance because of the difficulty and rigor of these methods. Practical guidance on the use of the versatile Bayesian expert judgment aggregation model is provided. In particular, the case study of pressure increment due to vessel breach in the Sequoyah nuclear power plant is chosen to illustrate how phenomenological uncertainty can be addressed by using the Bayesian aggregation model. The results indicate that the Bayesian aggregation model is a suitable candidate model for aggregating expert judgments, especially if there is phenomenological uncertainty. Phenomenological uncertainty can be represented through the dependence parameter of the Bayesian model. This is because the sharing of assumptions by the experts tends to introduce dependence between the experts. The extent of commonality in the experts' beliefs can be characterized by assessing their interdependence. The results indicate that uncertainty is possibly underestimated by ignoring dependence

GIS and agent based spatial-temporal simulation modeling for assessing tourism social carrying capacity: a study on Mount Emei scenic area, China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Renjun

2007-06-01

Each scenic area can sustain a specific level of acceptance of tourist development and use, beyond which further development can result in socio-cultural deterioration or a decline in the quality of the experience gained by visitors. This specific level is called carrying capacity. Social carrying capacity can be defined as the maximum level of use (in terms of numbers and activities) that can be absorbed by an area without an unacceptable decline in the quality of experience of visitors and without an unacceptable adverse impact on the society of the area. It is difficult to assess the carrying capacity, because the carrying capacity is determined by not only the number of visitors, but also the time, the type of the recreation, the characters of each individual and the physical environment. The objective of this study is to build a spatial-temporal simulation model to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. This model is a tourist spatial behaviors simulator (TSBS). Based on TSBS, the changes of each visitor's travel patterns such as location, cost, and other states data are recoded in a state table. By analyzing this table, the intensity of the tourist use in any area can be calculated; the changes of the quality of tourism experience can be quantized and analyzed. So based on this micro simulation method the social carrying capacity can be assessed more accurately, can be monitored proactively and managed adaptively. In this paper, the carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area is analyzed as followed: The author selected the intensity of the crowd as the monitoring Indicators. it is regarded that longer waiting time means more crowded. TSBS was used to simulate the spatial-temporal distribution of tourists. the average of waiting time all the visitors is calculated. And then the author assessed the social carrying capacity of Mount Emei scenic area, found the key factors have impacted on social carrying capacity. The results show that the TSBS

A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

Science.gov (United States)

Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

2017-12-01

Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

Using health technology assessment to assess the value of new medicines: results of a systematic review and expert consultation across eight European countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Angelis, Aris; Lange, Ansgar; Kanavos, Panos

2018-01-01

Although health technology assessment (HTA) systems base their decision making process either on economic evaluations or comparative clinical benefit assessment, a central aim of recent approaches to value measurement, including value based assessment and pricing, points towards the incorporation of supplementary evidence and criteria that capture additional dimensions of value. To study the practices, processes and policies of value-assessment for new medicines across eight European countries and the role of HTA beyond economic evaluation and clinical benefit assessment. A systematic (peer review and grey) literature review was conducted using an analytical framework examining: (1) 'Responsibilities and structure of HTA agencies'; (2) 'Evidence and evaluation criteria considered in HTAs'; (3) 'Methods and techniques applied in HTAs'; and (4) 'Outcomes and implementation of HTAs'. Study countries were France, Germany, England, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain. Evidence from the literature was validated and updated through two rounds of feedback involving primary data collection from national experts. All countries assess similar types of evidence; however, the specific criteria/endpoints used, their level of provision and requirement, and the way they are incorporated (e.g. explicitly vs. implicitly) varies across countries, with their relative importance remaining generally unknown. Incorporation of additional 'social value judgements' (beyond clinical benefit assessment) and economic evaluation could help explain heterogeneity in coverage recommendations and decision-making. More comprehensive and systematic assessment procedures characterised by increased transparency, in terms of selection of evaluation criteria, their importance and intensity of use, could lead to more rational evidence-based decision-making, possibly improving efficiency in resource allocation, while also raising public confidence and fairness.

Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

1999-01-01

The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

Establishing Self-Assessment Mechanisms and Capacities (INIR Approach)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2010-08-01

The Regional National Nuclear Power Infrastructure Evaluation Workshop on Establishing Self-Assessment Mechanisms and Capacities (INIR Approach) Covers Milestones 1 and 2, which can be carried out at any point to review progress and addresses each of the 19 infrastructure issues. For each condition, identifies the evidence that will show it has been met and Seek to avoid duplication as much as possible. The following elements should be contained in an Evaluation Report, as a minimum: Identification of the “Evaluators' Team” by position/role; Identification of the “Team of Respondents”; A description of the process used to conduct the evaluation; Lists of the evidence reviewed and further actions required; Summary of conclusions giving the status of achievement of each condition; References to any relevant material used for conducting the evaluation and Confidentiality requirements. Main Steps for a Complete Self-Assessment include- Organization and management, Evaluate the status of development of the infrastructure against the basis listed in the Roadmap / White Paper / Milestone Document, Identify synergies between all Organizations involved, Identify areas needing further attention, Preparing an action plan to address these areas and If needed, identify IAEA / Multilateral / Bilateral supports. Evaluation steps include Determine the scope and terms of reference, strongly recommended that all 19 issues are covered, Identify the organizations to be involved, the individuals who will conduct the evaluation; Evaluate the status of the infrastructure against the basis listed

How should an electric vehicle sound? User and expert perception

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petiot, Jean-François; Kristensen, Bjørn G.; Maier, Anja

2013-01-01

for electric vehicles were investigated in an experimental setting with a total of 40 participants, 34 novice users and six sound experts. Word association was used to elicit emotional reactions to the different sounds. Novice users employ more characterrelated terms to describe the sounds, while experts use...... more composition-based words. Analysis of variance and conjoint analysis was used to analyze participants’ assessments of sounds according to two semantic scales (pleasantness and appropriateness). Considerable inter-individual differences in the ratings of pleasantness and appropriateness indicate...

CIVA : expert post in non destructive testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benoist, P.; Besnard, R.; Bayon, G.; Boutaine, J.L.

1994-01-01

C.E.A. has developed an original tool, a N.D.E software running on a workstation, able to handle different types of files: ultrasonics, eddy current, radiography, neutronography. The system is based on the experience of different SACLAY's laboratories and the different experts have brought their competence and knowledge in order to build this new software. Following the SPARTACUS approach, this tool allows to superpose images issued from various N.D.E. acquisitions. Modeling is directly integrated to the system, which permits to combine simulation and processing displays. 3 D imaging, signal processing and direct convolution of the data are also available. This software, named CIVA, improves the capacities of the N.D.E.; different examples of applications are shown, either for industrial or industrial applications. (authors) 6 refs., 14 figs

Sleep-spindle detection: crowdsourcing and evaluating performance of experts, non-experts and automated methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warby, Simon C.; Wendt, Sabrina Lyngbye; Welinder, Peter

2014-01-01

to crowdsource spindle identification by human experts and non-experts, and we compared their performance with that of automated detection algorithms in data from middle- to older-aged subjects from the general population. We also refined methods for forming group consensus and evaluating the performance...... of event detectors in physiological data such as electroencephalographic recordings from polysomnography. Compared to the expert group consensus gold standard, the highest performance was by individual experts and the non-expert group consensus, followed by automated spindle detectors. This analysis showed...... that crowdsourcing the scoring of sleep data is an efficient method to collect large data sets, even for difficult tasks such as spindle identification. Further refinements to spindle detection algorithms are needed for middle- to older-aged subjects....

Christiano’s Deliberative Expertism and Choice Architecture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Viktor Ivanković

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article explores Thomas Christiano’s account of the moral division of labor in democracy. Christiano’s incorporation of experts serves the purpose of alleviating the epistemic burdens of ordinary citizens in the decision-making process and decreasing the amount of work they would otherwise be required to take on in a modern democracy. The gist of my contribution to the debate is assessing whether Christiano’s account successfully tackles the issues brought about by cognitive biases that people suffer from in communicating their values in decision-making. I argue that Christiano’s notion of experts needs to be extended to choice architects, who possess the knowledge on methods for influencing choice. I also claim that choice architecture is a social fact that an informed deliberative democratic theory needs to deal with.

Surgical experts: born or made?

Science.gov (United States)

Sadideen, Hazim; Alvand, Abtin; Saadeddin, Munir; Kneebone, Roger

2013-01-01

The concept of surgical expertise and the processes involved in its development are topical, and there is a constant drive to identify reliable measures of expert performance in surgery. This review explores the notion of whether surgical experts are "born" or "made", with reference to educational theory and pertinent literature. Peer-reviewed publications, books, and online resources on surgical education, expertise and training were reviewed. Important themes and aspects of expertise acquisition were identified in order to better understand the concept of a surgical expert. The definition of surgical expertise and several important aspects of its development are highlighted. Innate talent plays an important role, but is insufficient on its own to produce a surgical expert. Multiple theories that explore motor skill acquisition and memory are relevant, and Ericsson's theory of the development of competence followed by deliberate self-practice has been especially influential. Psychomotor and non-technical skills are necessary for progression in the current climate in light of our training curricula; surgical experts are adaptive experts who excel in these. The literature suggests that surgical expertise is reached through practice; surgical experts are made, not born. A deeper understanding of the nature of expert performance and its development will ensure that surgical education training programmes are of the highest possible quality. Surgical educators should aim to develop an expertise-based approach, with expert performance as the benchmark. Copyright © 2013 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

49 CFR 1572.109 - Mental capacity.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... intelligence, mental illness, incompetence, condition, or disease, is a danger to himself or herself or to... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Mental capacity. 1572.109 Section 1572.109... ASSESSMENTS Standards for Security Threat Assessments § 1572.109 Mental capacity. (a) An applicant has mental...

Law for nuclear experts only

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wagner, H [Kernforschungszentrum Karlsruhe G.m.b.H. (Germany, F.R.)

1980-02-01

The Federal Ministry of the Interior is preparing an ordinance on expert consultants under the Atomic Energy Act which, among other topics, is to include legal norms for the criteria to be met by experts in terms of non-partisanship, training, capabilities, technical equipment and cooperation in expert organizations of members of various scientific and technical disciplines. A summary of general criteria relating to the qualification, selection and status of experts called in by the legislative and executive branches and by courts of law, which could be organized as a series of guidelines without any original qualities of legal norms, could be recommended in view of the increasing quantitative and qualitative importance of experts. However, passing an ordinance merely fixing and putting into concrete terms the image of an 'expert under the Atomic Energy Act' is intolerable, because the status of scientific and technical experts by far extends beyond the field of nuclear law in our industrial society characterized by a far reaching division of labor. Weak points in the organization of expert services are not confined to technology or nuclear power. Separate rules establishing legal norms are not convincing also for reasons of technology policy and legal policy as well as for those of social psychology and practice.

A fault diagnosis and operation advising cooperative expert system based on multi-agent technology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, W.; Bai, X.; Ding, J.; Fang, Z.; Li, Z. [China Electric Power Research Inst., Haidian District, Beijing (China)

2006-07-01

Power systems are becoming more and more complex. In addition, the amount of real-time alarm messages from the supervisory control and data acquisition, energy management systems and wide area measurement systems about switchgear and protection are also increasing to a point far beyond the operator's capacity to digest the information. Research and development of a fault diagnosis system is necessary for the timely identification of fault or malfunctioning devices and for realizing the automation functions of dynamic supervisory control system. The prevailing fault diagnosis approaches in power systems include the expert system, artificial neural network, and fault diagnosis based on optimal theory. This paper discussed the advantages and disadvantages of each of these approaches for diagnosing faults. The paper also proposed a new fault diagnosis and operational processing approach based on a cooperative expert system combined with a multi-agent architecture. For solving complex and correlative faults, the cooperative expert system can overcome the deficiency of a single expert system. It can be used not only for diagnosing complex faults in real time but also in providing timely operational advice. The proposed system has been used successfully in a district power grid in China's Shangdong province for a year. 9 refs., 4 figs.

Expert Systems for the Analytical Laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

de Monchy, Allan R.; And Others

1988-01-01

Discusses two computer problem solving programs: rule-based expert systems and decision analysis expert systems. Explores the application of expert systems to automated chemical analyses. Presents six factors to consider before using expert systems. (MVL)

The unconvincing product - Consumer versus expert hazard identification: A mental models study of novel foods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hagemann, Kit; Scholderer, Joachim

and experts understanding of benefits and risks associated with three Novel foods (a potato, rice and functional food ingredients) using a relatively new methodology for the study of risk perception called Mental models. Mental models focus on the way people conceptualise hazardous processes and allows...... researchers to pit a normative analysis (expert mental models) against a descriptive analysis (consumer mental models). Expert models were elicited by means of a three-wave Delphi procedure from altogether 24 international experts and consumers models from in-dept interviews with Danish consumers. The results...... revealed that consumers´ and experts' mental models differed in connection to scope. Experts focused on the types of hazards for which risk assessments can be conducted under current legal frameworks whereas consumers were concerned about issues that lay outside the scope of current legislation. Experts...

Testing the Limits of Skill Transfer for Scrabble Experts in Behaviour and Brain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophia Van Hees

2016-11-01

Full Text Available We investigated transfer of the skills developed by competitive Scrabble players. Previous studies reported superior performance for Scrabble experts on the lexical decision task (LDT, suggesting near transfer of Scrabble skills. Here we investigated the potential for far transfer to a symbol decision task (SDT; in particular, transfer of enhanced long-term working memory for vertically presented stimuli. Our behavioural results showed no evidence for far transfer. Despite years of intensive practice, Scrabble experts were no faster and no more accurate than controls in the SDT. However, our fMRI and EEG data from the SDT suggest that the neural repertoire that Scrabble experts develop supports task performance even outside of the practised domain, in a non-linguistic context. The regions engaged during the SDT were different across groups: controls engaged temporal-frontal regions, whereas Scrabble experts engaged posterior visual and temporal-parietal regions. In Scrabble experts, activity related to Scrabble skill (anagramming scores included regions associated with visual-spatial processing and long-term working memory, and overlapped with regions previously shown to be associated with Scrabble expertise in the near transfer task (LDT. Analysis of source waveforms within these regions showed that participants with higher anagramming scores had larger P300 amplitudes, potentially reflecting greater working memory capacity, or less variability in the participants who perform the task more efficiently. Thus, the neuroimaging results provide evidence of brain transfer in the absence of behavioural transfer, providing new clues about the consequences of long-term training associated with competitive Scrabble expertise.

Expert system application for prioritizing preventive actions for shift work: shift expert.

Science.gov (United States)

Esen, Hatice; Hatipoğlu, Tuğçen; Cihan, Ahmet; Fiğlali, Nilgün

2017-09-19

Shift patterns, work hours, work arrangements and worker motivations have increasingly become key factors for job performance. The main objective of this article is to design an expert system that identifies the negative effects of shift work and prioritizes mitigation efforts according to their importance in preventing these negative effects. The proposed expert system will be referred to as the shift expert. A thorough literature review is conducted to determine the effects of shift work on workers. Our work indicates that shift work is linked to demographic variables, sleepiness and fatigue, health and well-being, and social and domestic conditions. These parameters constitute the sections of a questionnaire designed to focus on 26 important issues related to shift work. The shift expert is then constructed to provide prevention advice at the individual and organizational levels, and it prioritizes this advice using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model, which considers comparison matrices provided by users during the prioritization process. An empirical study of 61 workers working on three rotating shifts is performed. After administering the questionnaires, the collected data are analyzed statistically, and then the shift expert produces individual and organizational recommendations for these workers.

Validity of contend and the validy apparently and insurance to evaluate the capacity of agency of selfcare

OpenAIRE

Achury Saldaña, Diana Marcela; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana; Sepúlveda, Gloria Judith; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana; Rodríguez Colmenares, Sandra Mónica; Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to design and identify the indicators of validity of content and the validity apparent of an instrument to evaluate the capacity of agency of self care, that consist of 41 items brought together in three categories (basic capacities, components of power and capacity of fulfilling the self care). The validity of the content was established since the analysis of the persistency, relevance and redaction of the items with the established categories. After the experts...

Identification of component performance degradations caused by ageing using expert panels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nitoi, Mirela; Cristea, Dumitru; Pavelescu, Margarit

2008-01-01

Since the component ageing can be considered as one of the important causes of operating events reported, the identification of ageing effects and implementation of appropriate methods for mitigation of these effects represent an important preoccupation of many organizations and research activities. In the process of identification of ageing manifestation we can use either analysis of operational data or expert opinions, each of the methods having specific advantages and disadvantages. A reasonable combination of statistical, structural reliability and expert panel methods would be an appropriate approach in the failure probability assessments. In case when there are not enough operational data, the expert judgments represent the only viable alternative in the effort dedicated to identification of components and systems vulnerability to ageing. The panel use judgments to analyse the degradation produced by ageing, to score the components based on specific criteria and to rank them relative to one another. The paper presents the approach developed, including evaluation criteria and assigning indices for assessment of particular types of ageing degradation (the case of secondary system of TRIGA reactor). (authors)

A condition metric for Eucalyptus woodland derived from expert evaluations.

Science.gov (United States)

Sinclair, Steve J; Bruce, Matthew J; Griffioen, Peter; Dodd, Amanda; White, Matthew D

2018-02-01

The evaluation of ecosystem quality is important for land-management and land-use planning. Evaluation is unavoidably subjective, and robust metrics must be based on consensus and the structured use of observations. We devised a transparent and repeatable process for building and testing ecosystem metrics based on expert data. We gathered quantitative evaluation data on the quality of hypothetical grassy woodland sites from experts. We used these data to train a model (an ensemble of 30 bagged regression trees) capable of predicting the perceived quality of similar hypothetical woodlands based on a set of 13 site variables as inputs (e.g., cover of shrubs, richness of native forbs). These variables can be measured at any site and the model implemented in a spreadsheet as a metric of woodland quality. We also investigated the number of experts required to produce an opinion data set sufficient for the construction of a metric. The model produced evaluations similar to those provided by experts, as shown by assessing the model's quality scores of expert-evaluated test sites not used to train the model. We applied the metric to 13 woodland conservation reserves and asked managers of these sites to independently evaluate their quality. To assess metric performance, we compared the model's evaluation of site quality with the managers' evaluations through multidimensional scaling. The metric performed relatively well, plotting close to the center of the space defined by the evaluators. Given the method provides data-driven consensus and repeatability, which no single human evaluator can provide, we suggest it is a valuable tool for evaluating ecosystem quality in real-world contexts. We believe our approach is applicable to any ecosystem. © 2017 State of Victoria.

The algorithm for the assessment of functional work capacity of railway workers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Okiljević Z.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The assessment of functional work capacity based on the biological function of the body and a specific job demands and job characteristics, determine whether a person is capable to do the job or group of jobs. Evaluation of work capacity (EWC railway workers is conducted according to the program of Regulations for the former and periodic examinations of employees in workplaces with high risk published in the Official Gazette of RS no. 120/ 07 and 655. Regulations on health conditions to be met by railway workers, who are directly involved in railway transport. One of the most common chronic diseases during EWC is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. The definition of contraindications for use of railway employees with COPD given by Ordinance 655 is in very general terms, trying to make it easier and improve the quality of assessment of work capacity, we have developed an algorithm for the assessment of work ability among these workers. When doubt the existence of COPD should first prove that the disease exists, according to GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, and for occupational medicine we considered important to clarify and standardize the assessment criteria for EWC, which resulting in a diagnostic algorithm for EWC. It is also important to know which type of job will worker to do. Application of a diagnostic algorithm in EWC will allow optimal assessment of disease severity in railway and other workers suffering of COPD working at the workplace with an increased risk efficacy treatment evaluation; assess compensation of functional defects and determine schedule of periodical examination.

System control module diagnostic Expert Assistant

Science.gov (United States)

Flores, Luis M.; Hansen, Roger F.

1990-01-01

The Orbiter EXperiments (OEX) Program was established by NASA's Office of Aeronautics and Space Technology (OAST) to accomplish the precise data collection necessary to support a complete and accurate assessment of Space Transportation System (STS) Orbiter performance during all phases of a mission. During a mission, data generated by the various experiments are conveyed to the OEX System Control Module (SCM) which arranges for and monitors storage of the data on the OEX tape recorder. The SCM Diagnostic Expert Assistant (DEA) is an expert system which provides on demand advice to technicians performing repairs of a malfunctioning SCM. The DEA is a self-contained, data-driven knowledge-based system written in the 'C' Language Production System (CLIPS) for a portable micro-computer of the IBM PC/XT class. The DEA reasons about SCM hardware faults at multiple levels; the most detailed layer of encoded knowledge of the SCM is a representation of individual components and layouts of the custom-designed component boards.

Capacity planning and management

OpenAIRE

Boydell, Briony

2011-01-01

After reading this chapter you should be able to: • Define and measure capacity and appreciate the factors that influence it. • Assess the difficulties of matching capacity to demand. • Evaluate and apply the different strategies for matching capacity with demand in the short, medium and long term. • Analyse the impact of constraints and bottlenecks on a process and consider the Theory of Constraints. • Outline the different strategies available for both manufacturing and service operations. ...

20051655 - Petronas, Capacity of Driven Piles Offshore Malaysia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Augustesen, Anders; Andersen, Lars

This document is the third of four notes concerning the vertical capacity of piles. It includes an assessment of the effect of previous static load testing upon the measured capacity, i.e. preshearing effects.......This document is the third of four notes concerning the vertical capacity of piles. It includes an assessment of the effect of previous static load testing upon the measured capacity, i.e. preshearing effects....

UN OPEN GIS CAPACITY BUILDING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Albertella

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The UN Open GIS Initiative is to identify and develop, under UN guidance, an Open Source GIS bundle that meets the requirements of UN operations, taking full advantage of the expertise of mission partners (partner nations, technology contributing countries, international organizations, academia, NGO’s, private sector. The project, started in 2016, is composed by 4 working groups. One of the working group is specifically related to Capacity Building, given its importance for the success of the project. UN Open GIS will be based on some existing open source geospatial software (packages and libraries with many extensions specifically developed. The users of the platform will be the UN staff supporting with mapping and GIS the peacekeeping missions. Therefore, they are generally expert of this specific domain, even if they are currently using proprietary software. UN Open GIS Capacity Building is specifically thought for covering this gap, providing them the suitable background about open source geospatial software in general and the education tailored to the solution that has been being developed within the project itself.

Experts in science and society

CERN Document Server

Gigerenzer, Gerd

2004-01-01

In today's complex world, we have come to rely increasingly on those who have expertise in specific areas and can bring their knowledge to bear on crucial social, political and scientific questions. Taking the viewpoint that experts are consulted when there is something important at stake for an individual, a group, or society at large, Experts in Science and Society explores expertise as a relational concept. How do experts balance their commitment to science with that to society? How does a society actually determine that a person has expertise? What personal traits are valued in an expert? From where does the expert derive authority? What makes new forms of expertise emerge? These and related questions are addressed from a wide range of areas in order to be inclusive, as well as to demonstrate similarities across areas. Likewise, in order to be culturally comparative, this volume includes examples and discussions of experts in different countries and even in different time periods. The topics include the r...

Expert system in PNC, 5

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tobita, Yoshimasa; Yamaguchi, Takashi; Matsumoto, Mitsuo; Ono, Kiyoshi.

1990-01-01

The computer code system which can evaluate the mass balance and cycle cost in nuclear fuel cycle has been developing a PNC using an artificial intelligence technique. This system is composed of the expert system, data base and analysis codes. The expert system is the most important one in the system and the content of the expert system is explained in this paper. The expert system has the three functions. The first is the function of understanding the meaning of user's questions by natural language, the second is the function of selecting the best way to solve the problem given by the user using the knowledge which is already installed in the system, and the last is the function of answering the questions. The knowledge of the experts installed in the expert system is represented by the frame-type rules. Therefore, the knowledge will be simply added to the system, and consequently the system will be easily extended. (author)

Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

2014-11-01

The reliability and validity of six experts' exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1-4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. The Spearman correlation (r(s)) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately high (weighted kappa range=0.60-0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (r(s)=-0.37-0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47-78%) than airborne measurements (16-50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies.

Experts on public trial

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Blok, Anders

2007-01-01

a case study of the May 2003 Danish consensus conference on environmental economics as a policy tool, the article reflects on the politics of expert authority permeating practices of public participation. Adopting concepts from the sociology of scientific knowledge (SSK), the conference is seen......-than-successful defense in the citizen perspective. Further, consensus conferences are viewed alternatively as "expert dissent conferences," serving to disclose a multiplicity of expert commitments. From this perspective, some challenges for democratizing expertise through future exercises in public participation...

Surge capacity principles: care of the critically ill and injured during pandemics and disasters: CHEST consensus statement.

Science.gov (United States)

Hick, John L; Einav, Sharon; Hanfling, Dan; Kissoon, Niranjan; Dichter, Jeffrey R; Devereaux, Asha V; Christian, Michael D

2014-10-01

This article provides consensus suggestions for expanding critical care surge capacity and extension of critical care service capabilities in disasters or pandemics. It focuses on the principles and frameworks for expansion of intensive care services in hospitals in the developed world. A companion article addresses surge logistics, those elements that provide the capability to deliver mass critical care in disaster events. The suggestions in this article are important for all who are involved in large-scale disasters or pandemics with injured or critically ill multiple patients, including front-line clinicians, hospital administrators, and public health or government officials. The Surge Capacity topic panel developed 23 key questions focused on the following domains: systems issues; equipment, supplies, and pharmaceuticals; staffing; and informatics. Literature searches were conducted to identify evidence on which to base key suggestions. Most reports were small scale, were observational, or used flawed modeling; hence, the level of evidence on which to base recommendations was poor and did not permit the development of evidence-based recommendations. Therefore, the panel developed expert opinion-based suggestions using a modified Delphi process. Suggestions from the previous task force were also included for validation by the expert panel. This article presents 10 suggestions pertaining to the principles that should guide surge capacity and capability planning for mass critical care, including the role of critical care in disaster planning; the surge continuum; targets of surge response; situational awareness and information sharing; mitigating the impact on critical care; planning for the care of special populations; and service deescalation/cessation (also considered as engineered failure). Future reports on critical care surge should emphasize population-based outcomes as well as logistical details. Planning should be based on the projected number of

ParticipACTION: Baseline assessment of the 'new ParticipACTION': A quantitative survey of Canadian organizational awareness and capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bauman Adrian

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background ParticipACTION is a Canadian physical activity (PA communications and social marketing organization that was relaunched in 2007 after a six-year hiatus. This study assesses the baseline awareness and capacity of Canadian organizations that promote physical activity, to adopt, implement and promote ParticipACTION's physical activity campaign. The three objectives were: (1 to determine organizational awareness of both the 'original' and 'new' ParticipACTION; (2 to report baseline levels of three organizational capacity domains (i.e., to adopt, implement and externally promote physical activity initiatives; and, (3 to explore potential differences in those domains based on organizational size, sector and primary mandate. Methods Organizations at local, provincial/territorial, and national levels were sent an invitation via email prior to the official launch of ParticipACTION to complete an on-line survey. The survey assessed their organization's capacity to adopt, implement and externally promote a new physical activity campaign within their organizational mandates. Descriptive statistics were employed to address the first two study objectives. A series of one-way analysis of variance were conducted to examine the third objective. Results The response rate was 29.7% (268/902. The majority of responding organizations had over 40 employees and had operated for over 10 years. Education was the most common primary mandate, followed by sport and recreation. Organizations were evenly distributed between government and not-for-profits. Approximately 96% of respondents had heard of the 'original' ParticipACTION while 54.6% had heard of the 'new' ParticipACTION (Objective 1. Findings indicate good organizational capacity in Canada to promote physical activity (Objective 2 based on reported means of approximately 4.0 (on 5-point scales for capacity to adopt, implement, and externally promote new physical activity campaigns. Capacity to