WorldWideScience

Sample records for expert assessment capacity

  1. Hybrid knowledge expert tool for load capacity assessment of railway plate girders with defects

    Science.gov (United States)

    KuŻawa, M.; Bień, J.; Gładysz, M.

    2013-10-01

    Importance of the bridge structures as components of the transportation network is increasing and requires regular development of the management methodology. The main activities are focused on the safety of the users of the transportation network and on the safety of structures, based on monitoring and analysis of the bridge condition changes caused by various types of defects. The paper presents application of the hybrid network technology in the expert tool NOBLA supporting condition assessment of bridge plate girders, taking into account defects of the structures.

  2. Development of the post-accident expert assessment capacity of I.R.S.N

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Repussard, J.

    2008-01-01

    Emergency preparedness is a key feature of IRSN's mission within the French institutional organisation of nuclear safety and radiation protection. In the event of an accident, IRSN is expected to propose to authorities the appropriate technical decisions in order to safeguard public health, environmental protection, and to restore safety. The article discusses the nature of the challenges that IRSN would have to meet in order to implement its mission during the 'post-accident' phase, which would last a long time if a significative environmental contamination did occur. These four challenges shape the strategy chosen by IRSN to prepare itself for such an eventuality: - to ensure the readiness of its experts, and the validity of its doctrine for intervention, on the basis of research results and of accumulated practical experience, - to maintain state of the art metrology facilities and computer models which would be needed to operate IRSN's response, - to elaborate, and maintain through exercises, plans to mobilize efficiently for the purpose of post-accident operations IRSN's resources which are normally dedicated to other tasks, - the work conducted by IRSN would also be expected to contribute to confidence rebuilding across society, after a nuclear accident. Communication and transparency will play a major role for this, and IRSN's culture and values have to take this fully into account. The conclusion stresses the importance of resource allocation across the different missions of IRSN, the achievement of prevention of accidents through the safety analysis and research processes remaining of paramount importance, and emergency preparedness being the last line of defence. International cooperation is in this respect one of the better ways to enhanced efficiency. (author)

  3. an expert assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Abbott, Benjamin W.; Jones, Jeremy B.; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Chapin, F. Stuart; Bowden, William B.; Bret-Harte, M. Syndonia; Epstein, Howard E.; Flannigan, Michael D.; Harms, Tamara K.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Natali, Susan M.; Rocha, Adrian V.; Tank, Suzanne E.

    2016-01-01

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are ...

  4. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  5. Expert judgement in performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom)

    2000-01-01

    This report is a pilot study that systematically describes the various types of expert judgement that are made throughout the development of a PA, and summarizes existing tools and practices for dealing with expert judgements. The report also includes recommendations for further work in the area of expert judgement. Expert judgements can be classified in a number of ways, including classification according to why the judgements are made and according to how the judgements are made. In terms of why judgements are made, there is a broad distinction between: Judgements concerning data that are made because alternatives are not feasible; and Judgements about the conduct of a PA that are made because there are no alternative approaches for making the decision. In the case of how judgements are made, the report distinguishes between non-elicited judgements made by individuals, non-elicited judgements made by groups, and elicited judgements made by individuals or groups. These types of judgement can generally be distinguished by the extent of the associated documentation, and hence their traceability. Tools for assessing judgements vary depending on the type of judgements being examined. Key tools are peer review, an appropriate QA regime, documentation, and elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders is also identified as important in establishing whether judgements are justified in the context in which they are used. The PA process comprises a number of stages, from establishing the assessment context, through site selection and repository design, to scenario and model development and parametrisation. The report discusses how judgements are used in each of these stages, and identifies which of the tools and procedures for assessing judgements are most appropriate at each stage. Recommendations for further work include the conduct of a trial expert elicitation to gain experience in the advantages and disadvantages of this technique, the development of guidance for peer

  6. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    OpenAIRE

    Chernysheva, Tatiana Yurievna; Korchuganova, Mariya Anatolievna; Borisov, V. V.; Minkov, S. L.

    2016-01-01

    Revealing experts' competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  7. Hierarchical Model of Assessing and Selecting Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chernysheva, T. Y.; Korchuganova, M. A.; Borisov, V. V.; Min'kov, S. L.

    2016-04-01

    Revealing experts’ competences is a multi-objective issue. Authors of the paper deal with competence assessing methods of experts seen as objects, and criteria of qualities. An analytic hierarchy process of assessing and ranking experts is offered, which is based on paired comparison matrices and scores, quality parameters are taken into account as well. Calculation and assessment of experts is given as an example.

  8. Toward the Development of Expert Assessment Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasselbring, Ted S.

    1986-01-01

    The potential application of "expert systems" to the diagnosis and assessment of special-needs children is examined and existing prototype systems are reviewed. The future of this artificial intelligence technology is discussed in relation to emerging development tools designed for the creation of expert systems by the lay public. (Author)

  9. Faulty judgment, expert opinion, and decision-making capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silberfeld, M; Checkland, D

    1999-08-01

    An assessment of decision-making capacity is the accepted procedure for determining when a person is not competent. An inferential gap exists between the criteria for capacity specific abilities and the legal requirements to understand relevant information and appreciate the consequences of a decision. This gap extends to causal influences on a person's capacity to decide. Using a published case of depression, we illustrate that assessors' uses of diagnostic information is frequently not up to the task of bridging this inferential gap in a justifiable way. We then describe cases of faulty judgement which challenge the understanding of diagnostic causal influences. These cases help to clarify the nature of the expertise required for capacity assessments. In practice, the requirements of decision-making capacity are often abandoned to other considerations due to a lack of requisite expertise. The legal policy supporting decision-making capacity as a means to protective intervention is justified only if the requisite expertise is developed. We propose the requisite expertise to be developed in the long term as a distinct multidisciplinary endeavour.

  10. Expert Judgement Assessment & SCENT Ontological Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NICHERSU Iulian

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to provide insights in the starting point of the Horizon 2020 ECfunded project SCENT (Smart Toolbox for Εngaging Citizens into a People-Centric Observation Web Citizen Observatory (CO in terms of existing infrastructure, existing monitoring systems and some discussion on the existing legal and administrative framework that relate to flood monitoring and management in the area of Danube Delta. The methodology used in this approach is based on expert judgement and ontological analysis, using the information collected from the identified end-users of the SCENT toolbox. In this type of analysis the stages of flood monitoring and management that the experts are involved in are detailed. This is done through an Expert Judgement Assessment analysis. The latter is complemented by a set of Key Performance Indicators that the stakeholders have assessed and/or proposed for the evaluation of the SCENT demonstrations, for the impact of the project and finally for SCENT toolbox performance and usefulness. The second part of the study presents an analysis that attempts to map the interactions between different organizations and components of the existing monitoring systems in the Danube Delta case study. Expert Judgement (EJ allows to gain information from specialists in a specific field through a consultation process with one or more experts that have experience in similar and complementary topics. Expert judgment, expert estimates, or expert opinion are all terms that refer to the contents of the problem; estimates, outcomes, predictions, uncertainties, and their corresponding assumptions and conditions are all examples of expert judgment. Expert Judgement is affected by the process used to gather it. On the other hand, the ontological analysis comes to complete this study, by organizing and presenting the connections behind the flood management and land use systems in the three phases of the flood event.

  11. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosqvist, T. [VTT Automation, Helsinki (Finland); Tuominen, R. [VTT Automation, Tampere (Finland)

    1999-12-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed.

  12. Expert judgement models in quantitative risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosqvist, T.; Tuominen, R.

    1999-01-01

    Expert judgement is a valuable source of information in risk management. Especially, risk-based decision making relies significantly on quantitative risk assessment, which requires numerical data describing the initiator event frequencies and conditional probabilities in the risk model. This data is seldom found in databases and has to be elicited from qualified experts. In this report, we discuss some modelling approaches to expert judgement in risk modelling. A classical and a Bayesian expert model is presented and applied to real case expert judgement data. The cornerstone in the models is the log-normal distribution, which is argued to be a satisfactory choice for modelling degree-of-belief type probability distributions with respect to the unknown parameters in a risk model. Expert judgements are qualified according to bias, dispersion, and dependency, which are treated differently in the classical and Bayesian approaches. The differences are pointed out and related to the application task. Differences in the results obtained from the different approaches, as applied to real case expert judgement data, are discussed. Also, the role of a degree-of-belief type probability in risk decision making is discussed

  13. CHOOZ-A expert assessment program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bouat, M.; Godin, R.

    1993-01-01

    CHOOZ-A Nuclear Power Plant, the first French-Belgian PWR unit (300 MWe) was definitively shut down at the end of October 1991, after 24 years in operation. Since summer 1991, the steering committee of the French (EDF) Lifetime Project has initiated a large inquiry to the different technical specialists of EDF and external organizations, trying to define a wide expert assessment program on this plant. The aim is to improve the knowledge of aging mechanisms such as those observed on the 52 PWR French nuclear power plants (900 and 1,300 MWe), and contribute to the validation of non-destructive in-service testing methods. This paper presents the retained CHOOZ-A expert assessment program and technical lines followed during its set up. First major project stages are described, then technical choices are explained, and at last the final program is presented with the specific content of each expert assessment. The definitive program is scheduled for a three year period starting at the moment of final shutdown license acquisition, with a provisional total budget of more than US $10 million

  14. Available transmission capacity assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Škokljev Ivan

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Effective power system operation requires the analysis of vast amounts of information. Power market activities expose power transmission networks to high-level power transactions that threaten normal, secure operation of the power system. When there are service requests for a specific sink/source pair in a transmission system, the transmission system operator (TSO must allocate the available transfer capacity (ATC. It is common that ATC has a single numerical value. Additionally, the ATC must be calculated for the base case configuration of the system, while generation dispatch and topology remain unchanged during the calculation. Posting ATC on the internet should benefit prospective users by aiding them in formulating their requests. However, a single numerical value of ATC offers little for prospect for analysis, planning, what-if combinations, etc. A symbolic approach to the power flow problem (DC power flow and ATC offers a numerical computation at the very end, whilst the calculation beforehand is performed by using symbols for the general topology of the electrical network. Qualitative analysis of the ATC using only qualitative values, such as increase, decrease or no change, offers some new insights into ATC evaluation, multiple transactions evaluation, value of counter-flows and their impact etc. Symbolic analysis in this paper is performed after the execution of the linear, symbolic DC power flow. As control variables, the mathematical model comprises linear security constraints, ATC, PTDFs and transactions. The aim is to perform an ATC sensitivity study on a five nodes/seven lines transmission network, used for zonal market activities tests. A relatively complicated environment with twenty possible bilateral transactions is observed.

  15. The assessment of argumentation from expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagemans, J.H.M.

    2011-01-01

    In this contribution, I will develop a comprehensive tool for the reconstruction and evaluation of argumentation from expert opinion. This is done by analyzing and then combining two dialectical accounts of this type of argumentation. Walton’s account of the ‘appeal to expert opinion’ provides a

  16. Landscape Capacity for Ecosystem Services Provision Based on Expert Knowledge and Public Perception (Case Study from the Northwest Slovakia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bezák Peter

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Landscape represents appropriate spatial dimension for a study of ecosystems, especially due to ability to translate scientific knowledge into proper guidance for land use practice and enhancing the inclusion of local stakeholders in decision-making procedures. We tested social preferences method to reach initial and raw overview of the ecosystem services (ES distribution and their values in the study areas. Perception of experts and local residents about capacities of relevant CORINE land cover (CLC types to provide various ES was linked with Geographic Information System databases. We quantified the results on the basis of the mean values for each CLC type and the ES groups and these were interpreted also in spatial context. The expectation about perceptible capacities of forest to provide goods and services was fulfilled by responses of the experts, as was the expected difficulty to assess capacities of transitional woodland shrub or complex cultivation patterns. However, additional land cover types in question are meadows and pastures or discon-tinuous urban fabric. Mostly middle ranking values prevail in responses of local residents and uncertainty in the background is much greater comparing to the experts. On the other hand, rural people may better recognise diversified fow of services due to their everyday close connection to more ES. Large variation in the scores of some valued CLC classes in responses of the local residents and also experts seems resulting from lack of knowledge in the background and differences in viewpoint and appreciation. We understand the gaps in evaluating ES by the experts and resident population as good experience and key challenge for the further steps and fine-tuning of the research methods.

  17. USING EXPERT OPINION IN HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT: A GUIDELINE REVIEW.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunger, Theresa; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Sahakyan, Narine; Siebert, Uwe

    2016-01-01

    External experts can be consulted at different stages of an HTA. When using vague information sources, it is particularly important to plan, analyze, and report the information processing in a standardized and transparent way. Our objective was to search and analyze recommendations regarding where and how to include expert data in HTA. We performed a systematic database search and screened the Internet pages of seventy-seven HTA organizations for guidelines, recommendations, and methods papers that address the inclusion of experts in HTA. Relevant documents were downloaded, and information was extracted in a standard form. Results were merged in tables and narrative evidence synthesis. From twenty-two HTA organizations, we included forty-two documents that consider the use of expert opinion in HTA. Nearly all documents mention experts in the step of preparation of the evidence report. Six documents address their role for priority setting of topics, fifteen for scoping, twelve for the appraisal of evidence and results, another twelve documents mention experts when considering the dissemination of HTA results. During the assessment step, experts are most often asked to amend the literature search or to provide expertise for special data analyses. Another issue for external experts is to appraise the HTA results and refer them back to a clinical and social context. Little is reported on methods of expert elicitation when their input substitutes study data. Despite existing recommendations on the use of expert opinion in HTA, common standards for elicitation are scarce in HTA guidelines.

  18. TOXPERT: An Expert System for Risk Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soto, R. J.; Osimitz, T. G.; Oleson, A.

    1988-01-01

    TOXPERT is an artificial intelligence based system used to model product safety, toxicology (TOX) and regulatory (REG) decision processes. An expert system shell uses backward chaining rule control to link “marketing approval” goals to the type of product, REG agency, exposure conditions and TOX. Marketing risks are primarily a function of the TOX, hazards and exposure potential. The method employed differentiates between REG requirements in goal seeking control for various types of products. This is accomplished by controlling rule execution by defining frames for each REG agency. In addition, TOXPERT produces classifications of TOX ratings and suggested product labeling. This production rule system uses principles of TOX, REGs, corporate guidelines and internal “rules of thumb.” TOXPERT acts as an advisor for this narrow domain. Advantages are that it can make routine decisions freeing professional's time for more complex problem solving, provide backup and training.

  19. Expert systems for fetal assessment in labour

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutomski, J.E.; Meaney, S.; Greene, R.A.; Ryan, A.C.; Devane, D.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cardiotocography (CTG) records the fetal heart rate in relation to maternal uterine contractions and is one of the most common forms of fetal assessment during labour. Despite guidelines for CTG interpretation, substantial inter- and intra-observer variation in interpretation has been

  20. Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amann, F.; Vogelhuber, M.

    2015-11-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature

  1. Assessment of geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay - Expert report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amann, F. [Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule ETHZ, Zürich (Switzerland); Vogelhuber, M. [Dr. von Moos AG, Geotechnisches Büro, Zürich (Switzerland)

    2015-11-15

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss Federal Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI presents an expert report published on the assessment of the geomechanical properties of intact Opalinus Clay. This review report addresses the conceptual constitutive framework for repositories in Opalinus Clay. The author addresses the geomechanical fundamentals that are necessary in order to adequately judge experiments on intact Opalinus Clay and the interpretation of the results. The report assesses in detail the various test series on intact Opalinus Clay carried out along with the interpretations made by experts and NAGRA. Further assessments are quoted including those on sample geometries tested, effective strength properties, undrained shear strength properties and elastic properties. The results of work done by other experts are also presented and discussed. The report is completed with a list of relevant literature.

  2. [Essential aspects of ophthalmological expert assessment in private accident insurance].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tost, F

    2014-06-01

    Commissions for an expert assessment place basically high demands on commissioned eye specialists because this activity differs from the normal routine field of work. In addition to assessing objective symptoms and subjective symptomatics in a special analytical manner, eye specialists are expected to have knowledge of basic legal terminology, such as proximate cause, evidence and evidential value. Only under these prerequisites can an ophthalmologist fulfill the function of an expert with a high level of quality and adequately adjust the special medical ophthalmological expertise to the requirements of the predominantly legally based clients commissioning the report and oriented to the appropriate valid legal norms. Particularly common difficulties associated with making an ophthalmological expert report for private accident insurance, e.g. determination of the reduction in functional quality, consideration of partial causality and assessment of diplopia are discussed.

  3. Assessing work disability for social security benefits: international models for the direct assessment of work capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geiger, Ben Baumberg; Garthwaite, Kayleigh; Warren, Jon; Bambra, Clare

    2017-08-25

    It has been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess claimants' work capacity, rather than relying on proxies such as on functioning. However, there is little academic discussion of how such assessments could be conducted. The article presents an account of different models of direct disability assessments based on case studies of the Netherlands, Germany, Denmark, Norway, the United States of America, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, utilising over 150 documents and 40 expert interviews. Three models of direct work disability assessments can be observed: (i) structured assessment, which measures the functional demands of jobs across the national economy and compares these to claimants' functional capacities; (ii) demonstrated assessment, which looks at claimants' actual experiences in the labour market and infers a lack of work capacity from the failure of a concerned rehabilitation attempt; and (iii) expert assessment, based on the judgement of skilled professionals. Direct disability assessment within social security is not just theoretically desirable, but can be implemented in practice. We have shown that there are three distinct ways that this can be done, each with different strengths and weaknesses. Further research is needed to clarify the costs, validity/legitimacy, and consequences of these different models. Implications for rehabilitation It has recently been argued that social security disability assessments should directly assess work capacity rather than simply assessing functioning - but we have no understanding about how this can be done in practice. Based on case studies of nine countries, we show that direct disability assessment can be implemented, and argue that there are three different ways of doing it. These are "demonstrated assessment" (using claimants' experiences in the labour market), "structured assessment" (matching functional requirements to workplace demands), and "expert assessment" (the

  4. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  5. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trauth, K.M. [Sandia National Labs., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Guzowski, R.V. [Science Applications International Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States). Business Administration & Economics Div.

    1994-09-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature.

  6. A formal expert judgment procedure for performance assessments of the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trauth, K.M.; Guzowski, R.V.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is an experimental facility located in southeastern New Mexico. It has been designed to determine the feasibility of the geologic disposal of defense-generated transuranic waste in a deep bedded-salt formation. The WIPP was also designed for disposal and will operate in that capacity if approved. The WIPP Performance Assessment Department at Sandia National Laboratories has been conducting analyses to assess the long-term performance of the WIPP. These analyses sometimes require the use of expert judgment. This Department has convened several expert-judgment panels and from that experience has developed an internal quality-assurance procedure to guide the formal elicitation of expert judgment. This protocol is based on the principles found in the decision-analysis literature

  7. Experts opinion on the use of normative data for functional capacity evaluation in occupational and rehabilitation medicine and disability claims.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F; Frings-Dresen, Monique H W; Kuijer, P Paul; Kuijer, P Paul F M

    2014-12-01

    Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. A focus group meeting was organized among 43 FCE experts working in insurance, occupational and/or rehabilitation medicine from eight countries during the first international FCE research meeting on October 25th, 2012 in the Netherlands. Participants were asked to rate to which degree they agree or disagree with a statement concerning their position toward normative values for FCE on a 10 cm VAS ranging from 0 (completely disagree) to 100 (completely agree) at T0 and T1. Arguments for aspects that are useful and of no use for normative values were systematically collected during the meeting and afterwards independently clustered by two researchers in higher order topics. Baseline opinion of participants on their position toward normative values was 49 ± 29 points. After the meeting, mean VAS was 55 ± 23 (p = 0.07), indicating that participants did not significantly change their opinion toward normative values. Based on arguments provided by the experts, seven higher order topics were constructed namely 'Comparison with job demands or treatment goals'; 'Comparison with co-workers physical ability'; 'Sincerity of effort'; 'Validity for work ability and return to work'; 'Experience of referrer with assessment method'; 'Clinimetrics compared to alternative assessment methods or reference values'; and 'Ease of use for clinician and stakeholders'. Although experts state useful aspects for the use of normative values of FCE for these assessments, it may also lead to over-interpretation of results, leading to dualistic statements concerning work ability, with potential harmful consequences for work ability of patients.

  8. Assessing Capacity Value of Wind Power

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frew, Bethany A.

    2017-04-18

    This presentation provides a high-level overview of assessing capacity value of wind power, including Impacts of multiple-year data sets, impacts of transmission assumptions, and future research needs.

  9. Assessing the criminal capacity of children: a challenge to the capacity of mental health professionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillay, Anthony L; Willows, Clive

    2015-01-01

    With increasing numbers of juveniles accused of serious crimes international concern is growing around the procedural consequences for affected individuals within the context of the law and criminal justice. Issues of culpability in children and adolescents are often raised, with much deliberation and insufficient agreement among legal and child development experts. Exactly when and to what extent juveniles can be held responsible for their action is a matter requiring careful consideration to avoid substantial erring in either direction. Although some international guiding standards and principles have been established, these are rather broad and unable to provide specific prescriptions. In addition, the assessment of criminal capacity in juveniles is a complex task, and one that is not wholly without reliability and validity problems. As in the case of South Africa and a few other countries, mental health specialists are often tasked with conducting developmental assessments to provide courts with expert evidence regarding criminal capacity. This paper examines the concept of criminal capacity in the context of the theory, controversies and challenges that affect this area of psychological focus.

  10. Towards a Fuzzy Expert System on Toxicological Data Quality Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Longzhi; Neagu, Daniel; Cronin, Mark T D; Hewitt, Mark; Enoch, Steven J; Madden, Judith C; Przybylak, Katarzyna

    2013-01-01

    Quality assessment (QA) requires high levels of domain-specific experience and knowledge. QA tasks for toxicological data are usually performed by human experts manually, although a number of quality evaluation schemes have been proposed in the literature. For instance, the most widely utilised Klimisch scheme1 defines four data quality categories in order to tag data instances with respect to their qualities; ToxRTool2 is an extension of the Klimisch approach aiming to increase the transparency and harmonisation of the approach. Note that the processes of QA in many other areas have been automatised by employing expert systems. Briefly, an expert system is a computer program that uses a knowledge base built upon human expertise, and an inference engine that mimics the reasoning processes of human experts to infer new statements from incoming data. In particular, expert systems have been extended to deal with the uncertainty of information by representing uncertain information (such as linguistic terms) as fuzzy sets under the framework of fuzzy set theory and performing inferences upon fuzzy sets according to fuzzy arithmetic. This paper presents an experimental fuzzy expert system for toxicological data QA which is developed on the basis of the Klimisch approach and the ToxRTool in an effort to illustrate the power of expert systems to toxicologists, and to examine if fuzzy expert systems are a viable solution for QA of toxicological data. Such direction still faces great difficulties due to the well-known common challenge of toxicological data QA that "five toxicologists may have six opinions". In the meantime, this challenge may offer an opportunity for expert systems because the construction and refinement of the knowledge base could be a converging process of different opinions which is of significant importance for regulatory policy making under the regulation of REACH, though a consensus may never be reached. Also, in order to facilitate the implementation

  11. A capacity assessment towards more resilient societies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlicke, C.; Steinführer, A.

    2012-04-01

    Social capacity building for natural hazards is a topic increasingly gaining relevance not only for so-called developing countries but also for European welfare states which are continuously challenged by the social, economic and ecological impacts of natural hazards. Following an outline of recent governance changes with regard to natural hazards, we develop a heuristic model of social capacity building by taking into account a wide range of existing expertise from different fields of research. Particular attention is paid to social vulnerability and its assessment, as well as to risk communication and risk education as specific strategies of social capacity building. We propose to distinguish between interventionist and participatory approaches, thus enabling for a better understanding of existing practices of social capacity building as well as their particular strengths and weaknesses. It is from this typology the presentation will develop two kinds of operational social capacity audits; one for communities and one for organisations. These assessments aim to identify appropriate measures and strategies regarding how to enhance, develop and build different kinds of capacities. By using these assessments participants will be able to identify strong capacities and can refer to the recommendations for tips on how to improve capacities identified as weak. That way deficits and outcomes are defined by those who are most likely to be affected by a future hazard event and most likely to be implementing improvements towards resilience.

  12. Application of fuzzy expert system on LILW performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemos, F.L. de; Sullivan, T.

    2002-01-01

    A complete LILW repository performance assessment requires the involvement between several experts in many fields of science. Many sources of uncertainties arise due to complexity of interaction of environmental parameters, lack of data and ignorance, this makes predictive analysis and interpretation difficult. This difficulty in understanding the impact of the ambiguities is even higher when it comes to public and decision makers involvement. Traditional methods of data analysis, while having strong mathematical basis, many times are not adequate to deal with ambiguous data. These ambiguities can be an obstacle to make the results easier to understand and defensible. A methodology of decision making, based on fuzzy logic, can help the interaction between experts, decision makers and the public. This method is the basis of an expert system which can help the analysis of very complex and ambiguous processes. (author)

  13. [Assessment of Functioning when Conducting Occupational Capacity Evaluations--What is "Evidence-Based"?].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Canela, Carlos; Schleifer, Roman; Dube, Anish; Hengartner, Michael P; Ebner, Gerhard; Seifritz, Erich; Liebrenz, Michael

    2016-03-01

    Occupational capacity evaluations have previously been subject to criticism for lacking in quality and consistency. To the authors' knowledge, there is no clear consensus on the best way to formally assess functioning within capacity evaluations. In this review we investigated different instruments that are used to assess functioning in occupational capacity evaluations. Systematic review of the literature. Though several instruments that assess functional capacity were found in our search, a specific validated instrument assessing occupational capacity as part of a larger psychiatric evaluation was not found. The limitations of the existing instruments on assessing functional capacity are discussed. Medical experts relying on instruments to conduct functional capacity evaluations should be cognizant of their limitations. The findings call for the development and use of an instrument specifically designed to assess the functional and occupational capacity of psychiatric patients, which is also likely to improve the quality of these reports. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. Assessment and management of agitation in psychiatry: Expert consensus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garriga, Marina; Pacchiarotti, Isabella; Kasper, Siegfried; Zeller, Scott L; Allen, Michael H; Vázquez, Gustavo; Baldaçara, Leonardo; San, Luis; McAllister-Williams, R Hamish; Fountoulakis, Konstantinos N; Courtet, Philippe; Naber, Dieter; Chan, Esther W; Fagiolini, Andrea; Möller, Hans Jürgen; Grunze, Heinz; Llorca, Pierre Michel; Jaffe, Richard L; Yatham, Lakshmi N; Hidalgo-Mazzei, Diego; Passamar, Marc; Messer, Thomas; Bernardo, Miquel; Vieta, Eduard

    2016-01-01

    Psychomotor agitation is associated with different psychiatric conditions and represents an important issue in psychiatry. Current recommendations on agitation in psychiatry are not univocal. Actually, an improper assessment and management may result in unnecessary coercive or sedative treatments. A thorough and balanced review plus an expert consensus can guide assessment and treatment decisions. An expert task force iteratively developed consensus using the Delphi method. Initial survey items were based on systematic review of the literature. Subsequent surveys included new, re-worded or re-rated items. Out of 2175 papers assessing psychomotor agitation, 124 were included in the review. Each component was assigned a level of evidence. Integrating the evidence and the experience of the task force members, a consensus was reached on 22 statements on this topic. Recommendations on the assessment of agitation emphasise the importance of identifying any possible medical cause. For its management, experts agreed in considering verbal de-escalation and environmental modification techniques as first choice, considering physical restraint as a last resort strategy. Regarding pharmacological treatment, the "ideal" medication should calm without over-sedate. Generally, oral or inhaled formulations should be preferred over i.m. routes in mildly agitated patients. Intravenous treatments should be avoided.

  15. Assessment of Capacity in an Aging Society

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moye, Jennifer; Marson, Daniel C.; Edelstein, Barry

    2013-01-01

    Over the past 40 years, the assessment and scientific study of capacity in older adults has emerged as a distinct field of clinical and research activity for psychologists. This new field reflects the convergence of several trends: the aging of American society, the growing incidence and prevalence of dementia, and the patient rights,…

  16. Basic foundations of phthisiology professionalization in the assessment of experts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alenin P.N.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the work is to study the conditions and stereotypes that determine the process of professionalization in the field of phthisiology. The main factors have been analyzed that characterize the situation of ТВ as a public health sphere in Russia. Material and Methods. Applying qualitative research strategy — semi-structured expert interviews. The basis of the study is the expert opinion of practitioners in the field of ТВ: ТВ service specialists of Saratov Region (Regional Clinical ТВ Dispensary in Saratov and lecturers of the department of Phthisiopulmonology of Saratov State Medical University n.a. V. I. Razumovsky (n=10. Results. The article presents research materials, aimed at identifying the specifics of the basic foundations of national ТВ professionalization. The main factors of vocational choice include a personal interest in the profession, value preferences, information availability, safety and the risk of occupational diseases, the contingent of patients. Conclusion. On the basis of expert opinion the influence of endogenous and exogenous factors to assess ТВ status of the professional medical community, as well as students — physicians in the context of their future professional socialization have been described.

  17. Complex method to calculate objective assessments of information systems protection to improve expert assessments reliability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdenov, A. Zh; Trushin, V. A.; Abdenova, G. A.

    2018-01-01

    The paper considers the questions of filling the relevant SIEM nodes based on calculations of objective assessments in order to improve the reliability of subjective expert assessments. The proposed methodology is necessary for the most accurate security risk assessment of information systems. This technique is also intended for the purpose of establishing real-time operational information protection in the enterprise information systems. Risk calculations are based on objective estimates of the adverse events implementation probabilities, predictions of the damage magnitude from information security violations. Calculations of objective assessments are necessary to increase the reliability of the proposed expert assessments.

  18. A framework to assess landscape structural capacity to provide regulating ecosystem services in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inkoom, Justice Nana; Frank, Susanne; Greve, Klaus; Fürst, Christine

    2018-03-01

    The Sudanian savanna landscapes of West Africa are amongst the world's most vulnerable areas to climate change impacts. Inappropriate land use and agriculture management practices continuously impede the capacity of agricultural landscapes to provide ecosystem services (ES). Given the absence of practical assessment techniques to evaluate the landscape's capacity to provide regulating ES in this region, the goal of this paper is to propose an integrative assessment framework which combines remote sensing, geographic information systems, expert weighting and landscape metrics-based assessment. We utilized Analytical Hierarchical Process and Likert scale for the expert weighting of landscape capacity. In total, 56 experts from several land use and landscape management related departments participated in the assessment. Further, we adapted the hemeroby concept to define areas of naturalness while landscape metrics including Patch Density, Shannon's Diversity, and Shape Index were utilized for structural assessment. Lastly, we tested the reliability of expert weighting using certainty measurement rated by experts themselves. Our study focused on four regulating ES including flood control, pest and disease control, climate control, and wind erosion control. Our assessment framework was tested on four selected sites in the Vea catchment area of Ghana. The outcome of our study revealed that highly heterogeneous landscapes have a higher capacity to provide pest and disease control, while less heterogeneous landscapes have a higher potential to provide climate control. Further, we could show that the potential capacities to provide ecosystem services are underestimated by 15% if landscape structural aspects assessed through landscape metrics are not considered. We conclude that the combination of adapted land use and an optimized land use pattern could contribute considerably to lower climate change impacts in West African agricultural landscapes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier

  19. Integration of expert knowledge and uncertainty in natural risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baruffini, Mirko; Jaboyedoff, Michel

    2010-05-01

    Natural hazards occurring in alpine regions during the last decades have clearly shown that interruptions of the Swiss railway power supply and closures of the Gotthard highway due to those events have increased the awareness of infrastructure vulnerability also in Switzerland and illustrate the potential impacts of failures on the performance of infrastructure systems. This asks for a high level of surveillance and preservation along the transalpine lines. Traditional simulation models are only partially capable to predict complex systems behaviours and the subsequently designed and implemented protection strategies are not able to mitigate the full spectrum of risk consequences. They are costly, and maximal protection is most probably not economically feasible. In addition, the quantitative risk assessment approaches such as fault tree analysis, event tree analysis and equivalent annual fatality analysis rely heavily on statistical information. Collecting sufficient data to base a statistical probability of risk is costly and, in many situations, such data does not exist; thus, expert knowledge and experience or engineering judgment can be exploited to estimate risk qualitatively. In order to overcome the statistics lack we used models based on expert's knowledge in order to qualitatively predict based on linguistic appreciation that are more expressive and natural in risk assessment. Fuzzy reasoning (FR) can be used providing a mechanism of computing with words (Zadeh, 1965) for modelling qualitative human thought processes in analyzing complex systems and decisions. Uncertainty in predicting the risk levels arises from such situations because no fully-formalized knowledge are available. Another possibility is to use probability based on triangular probability density function (T-PDF) that can be used to follow the same flow-chart as FR. We implemented the Swiss natural hazard recommendations FR and probability using T-PDF in order to obtain hazard zoning and

  20. Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Polido, Alexandra; João, Elsa; Ramos, Tomás B.

    2016-01-01

    Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

  1. Assessing testamentary and decision-making capacity: Approaches and models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purser, Kelly; Rosenfeld, Tuly

    2015-09-01

    The need for better and more accurate assessments of testamentary and decision-making capacity grows as Australian society ages and incidences of mentally disabling conditions increase. Capacity is a legal determination, but one on which medical opinion is increasingly being sought. The difficulties inherent within capacity assessments are exacerbated by the ad hoc approaches adopted by legal and medical professionals based on individual knowledge and skill, as well as the numerous assessment paradigms that exist. This can negatively affect the quality of assessments, and results in confusion as to the best way to assess capacity. This article begins by assessing the nature of capacity. The most common general assessment models used in Australia are then discussed, as are the practical challenges associated with capacity assessment. The article concludes by suggesting a way forward to satisfactorily assess legal capacity given the significant ramifications of getting it wrong.

  2. ASSESSMENT OF POWER QUALITY DISTURBANCE USING EXPERT SYSTEM

    OpenAIRE

    A.N.MALLESWARA RAO,; Dr. K.RAMESH REDDY,; Dr. B.V.SANKER RAM

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a fuzzy expert system in order to understand and deal with power quality problems encountered in distribution systems in a better way. Because of the technology and software now available this monitoring is highly effective, the fuzzy expert system not only can provide information about the quality of the power and the causes of power system disturbances, but it can identify problem conditions throughout the system before they cause widespread customer complains and equip...

  3. How does the medical graduates' self-assessment of their clinical competency differ from experts' assessment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The assessment of the performance of medical school graduates during their first postgraduate years provides an early indicator of the quality of the undergraduate curriculum and educational process. The objective of this study was to assess the clinical competency of medical graduates, as perceived by the graduates themselves and by the experts. Methods This is a hospital based cross-sectional study. It covered 105 medical graduates and 63 experts selected by convenient sampling method. A self-administered questionnaire covering the different areas of clinical competency constructed on a five-point Likert scale was used for data collection. Data processing and analysis were performed using the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) 16.0. The mean, frequency distribution, and percentage of the variables were calculated. A non-parametric Kruskal Wallis test was applied to verify whether the graduates' and experts' assessments were influenced by the graduates' variables such as age, gender, experience, type of hospital, specialty and location of work at a (p ≤ 0.05) level of significance. Results The overall mean scores for experts' and graduates' assessments were 3.40 and 3.63, respectively (p= 0.035). Almost 87% of the graduates perceived their competency as good and very good in comparison with only 67.7% by experts. Female and male graduates who rated themselves as very good were 33.8% and 25% respectively. More than 19% of the graduates in the age group > 30 years perceived their clinical competency as inadequate in contrast with only 6.2% of the graduates in the youngest age group. Experts rated 40% of the female graduates as inadequate versus 20% of males, (p= 0.04). More than 40% of the graduates in younger age group were rated by experts as inadequate, versus 9.7% of the higher age group >30 years (p = 0.03). Conclusion There was a wide discrepancy between the graduates' self-assessment and experts' assessment, particularly in the level

  4. Elicitation and use of expert judgment in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bonano, E.J.; Hora, S.C.; Keeney, R.L.; von Winterfeldt, D.

    1990-05-01

    This report presents the concept of formalizing the elicitation and use of expert judgment in the performance assessment of high-level radioactive waste (HLW) repositories in deep geologic formations. The report begins with a discussion of characteristics (advantages and disadvantages) of formalizing expert judgment examples of previous uses of expert judgment in radioactive waste programs, criteria that can assist in deciding when to formalize expert judgment, and the relationship of formal use of expert judgment to data collection and modeling. The current state of the art with respect to the elicitation, use, and communication of formal expert judgment is presented. The report concludes with a discussion on potential applications of formal expert judgment in performance assessment of HLW repositories. 93 refs

  5. Development of an accident management expert system for containment assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Sebo, D.E.; Haney, L.N.

    1987-01-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRSC) is sponsoring a program at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to develop an accident management expert system. The intended users of the system are the personnel of the NRC Operations Center in Washington, D.C. The expert system will be used to help NRC personnel monitor and evaluate the status and management of the containment during a severe reactor accident. The knowledge base will include severe accident knowledge regarding the maintenance of the critical safety functions, especially containment integrity, during an accident. This paper summarizes the concepts that have been developed for the accident management expert system, and the plans that have been developed for its implementation

  6. NDT-based bridge condition assessment supported by expert tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bień, J.; KuŻawa, M.

    2016-06-01

    This paper is focused on the progress in the application of Expert Tools supporting integration of inspection and NDT testing findings in order to effectuate effective decision making by bridge owners. Possibilities of knowledge representation in the intelligent computer Expert Tools by means of the multi-level hybrid network technology are described. These multi-level hybrid networks can be built of neural, fuzzy and functional components depending on the problem that needs to be solved and on the type of available information. Application of the technology is illustrated by an example of the Bridge Evaluation Expert Function (BEEF) implemented in the Railway Bridge Management System "SMOK" operated by the Polish State Railways.

  7. Work capacity assessment of Nigerian bricklayers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S .O. Ismaila

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study is to assess the physical work capacity of bricklayers with focus on the energy expenditure during work. Eighty Nine bricklayers’ working on various sites in Ibadan and Eruwa towns of Oyo State, Nigeria are used for the study. Correlation and regression analysis using SPSS 16.0 Statistical Package was used to determine the relationship between VO2 given the age and weight of the subjects; % RHR(Relative Heart Rate and working heart rate (HRW given weight; VO2 and %RHR given Body Mass Index (BMI. The results showed that the mean energy expenditure of bricklaying was 1.5l/min of oxygen (7.23Kcal/min, using a conversion factor of 4.82 which classified bricklaying as “heavy work”. A rest allowance of 64.45% (38.67 minutes rest for 60 minutes work duration was calculated. It was concluded that there is a need to redesign the work content of the aforementioned occupation in order to reduce excessive strain on the workers, which in turn will increase productivity.

  8. Application of expert elicitation techniques in human reliability, assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanyasi Rao, V.V.S.; Saraf, R.K.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.

    2006-01-01

    Expert elicitation techniques are being used, in the area of technological forecasting, in estimating data needed for analysis when it is either difficult to arrive at the data by experimental means or when it is quite involved to plan and conduct the experiment. In this study, expert elicitation techniques are applied to the evaluation of the frequencies of the various accident sequences that can result from the initiating event (IE) 'High Pressure Process Water (HPPW) system failure' in typical Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (IPHWR) of the older generation. The Operating Procedure under Emergency Conditions (OPEC) for this IE involves human actions according to a pre-defined procedure. The Human Error Probabilities for all these human actions are obtained using expert elicitation techniques. These techniques aim at eliciting the opinion of the experts in the area of interest with regard to the issue in question. The uncertainty is analysed by employing the measure of dissonance and the most probable range of human error probabilities are arrived at by maximizing this measure. These values are combined using the same procedures mentioned above to yield a distribution representing the uncertainty associated with the predictions. (author)

  9. Expert assessment of advanced power sources. Contract report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gardner, C.L.

    2007-07-01

    Although DRDC published an exhaustive technical report (in August 2001) on technology trends in advanced power sources projected out to the year 2020, the terrorist attacks on the US on September 11, 2001 (and the consequent, augmented and more broadly-based defence and national security posture adopted by the CF/DND), together with rapid developments in power source technologies over the past five years, internationally, prompted DRDC to update the 2001 report, on a selected number of power source technologies or applications and to provide further guidance to DRDC's Advanced Power Source R and D program. Eight wide-ranging, power source technologies or applications were investigated, using the technique of 'expert elicitation' (that is, using independent experts in the various and diverse technological fields), based on a standardized questionnaire, augmented by the contractor's own expertise (and his overall analysis of the experts' responses) in these diverse areas. In addition, each expert was asked about his/her view on the likely role of nanotechnology in each technological area or application. Following collection and analysis of all the data, the contractor made recommendations on the ability of each power source to meet the future requirements of the CF/DND, taking into account the Technology Readiness Level, for each technology or application

  10. Expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minnullina, Anna; Abdrazakov, Rais

    2017-10-01

    The authors’ expert assessment of the current state of the energy management system in the company is proposed in the article. The experts are invited to assess the status of the energy management system in the following categories: energy policy, organizational structure, training, motivation, control, communication, investment, and energy consumption culture. For the purposes of interpretation of the results of the expert evaluation obtained, a gradation based on a possible range of values is proposed. The expert evaluation allows representing the status of the energy management system in general and at each of its individual levels, which makes it possible to identify the problem areas more accurately. To confirm the applied nature of the proposed methodology, the authors assessed the opinions of 8 experts, employed by the road construction company of the Tyumen Region and related in one way or another to the process of energy consumption in the company due to the nature of their activities.

  11. Experts' Perceptions on China's Capacity to Manage Emerging and Re-emerging Zoonotic Diseases in an Era of Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, A; Xiang, J; Liu, Q; Tong, M X; Sun, Y; Liu, X; Chen, K; Cameron, S; Hanson-Easey, S; Han, G-S; Weinstein, P; Williams, C; Bi, P

    2017-11-01

    Zoonotic diseases transmitted by arthropods and rodents are a major public health concern in China. However, interventions in recent decades have helped lower the incidence of several diseases despite the country's large, frequently mobile population and socio-economic challenges. Increasing globalization, rapid urbanization and a warming climate now add to the complexity of disease control and prevention and could challenge China's capacity to respond to threats of emerging and re-emerging zoonoses. To investigate this notion, face-to-face interviews were conducted with 30 infectious disease experts in four cities in China. The case study diseases under discussion were malaria, dengue fever and haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome, all of which may be influenced by changing meteorological conditions. Data were analysed using standard qualitative techniques. The study participants viewed the current disease prevention and control system favourably and were optimistic about China's capacity to manage climate-sensitive diseases in the future. Several recommendations emerged from the data including the need to improve health literacy in the population regarding the transmission of infectious diseases and raising awareness of the health impacts of climate change amongst policymakers and health professionals. Participants thought that research capacity could be strengthened and human resources issues for front-line staff should be addressed. It was considered important that authorities are well prepared in advance for outbreaks such as dengue fever in populous subtropical areas, and a prompt and coordinated response is required when outbreaks occur. Furthermore, health professionals need to remain skilled in the identification of diseases for which incidence is declining, so that re-emerging or emerging trends can be rapidly identified. Recommendations such as these may be useful in formulating adaptation plans and capacity building for the future control and

  12. Conceptual Models and Guidelines for Clinical Assessment of Financial Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marson, Daniel

    2016-09-01

    The ability to manage financial affairs is a life skill of critical importance, and neuropsychologists are increasingly asked to assess financial capacity across a variety of settings. Sound clinical assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of applicable clinical conceptual models and principles. However, the literature has presented relatively little conceptual guidance for clinicians concerning financial capacity and its assessment. This article seeks to address this gap. The article presents six clinical models of financial capacity : (1) the early gerontological IADL model of Lawton, (2) the clinical skills model and (3) related cognitive psychological model developed by Marson and colleagues, (4) a financial decision-making model adapting earlier decisional capacity work of Appelbaum and Grisso, (5) a person-centered model of financial decision-making developed by Lichtenberg and colleagues, and (6) a recent model of financial capacity in the real world developed through the Institute of Medicine. Accompanying presentation of the models is discussion of conceptual and practical perspectives they represent for clinician assessment. Based on the models, the article concludes by presenting a series of conceptually oriented guidelines for clinical assessment of financial capacity. In summary, sound assessment of financial capacity requires knowledge and appreciation of clinical conceptual models and principles. Awareness of such models, principles and guidelines will strengthen and advance clinical assessment of financial capacity. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. Experts Opinion on the Use of Normative Data for Functional Capacity Evaluation in Occupational and Rehabilitation Medicine and Disability Claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Soer, Remko; Reneman, Michiel F.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Application of normative values for functional capacity evaluation (FCE) is controversial for the assessment of clients for work ability. The objective of this study was to study when clinicians and researchers consider normative values of FCE useful or of no use for their purposes. Methods

  14. Assessment of policy makers' individual and organizational capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2017-09-03

    Sep 3, 2017 ... An evidence to policy self-assessment questionnaire was used to assess the capacity of forty. MNCH policy ... search, lack of actionable messages in research reports, and limited ... of research evidence is but one factor influencing all stag- es of what ... However, in order to design an effective capacity en-.

  15. Assessing European capacity for geological storage of carbon dioxide-the EU GeoCapacity project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vangkilde-Pedersen, T.; Anthonsen, K.L.; Smith, N.; Kirk, K.; Neele, F.; Meer, B. van der; Le Gallo, Y. le; Bossie-Codreanu, D.; Wojcicki, A.; Nindre, Y.-M. le; Hendriks, C.; Dalhoff, F.; Peter Christensen, N.

    2009-01-01

    The focus of the GeoCapacity project is GIS mapping of CO2 point sources, infrastructure and geological storage in Europe. The main objective is to assess the European capacity for geological storage of CO2 in deep saline aquifers, oil and gas structures and coal beds. Other priorities are further

  16. Expert System for Quality Assessment in "Tibiscus" University

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catalin Tuican

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The periodical evaluation of the teaching staff in „Tibiscus” University bases on the specifications of The Romanian Agency for Quality Assurance in Higher Education (Agenţia Română de Asigurare a Calităţii în Învăţământul Superior, ARACIS namely : „The quality of the teaching and researching staff The universities must dispose of teaching staff which, as number and functional base, must be correctly allocated to the total number of students, depending on the study domain, and regarding the qualifications it must depend on the specific of the study program and the proposed quality objectives.” This paper presents the implementation of an expert system, offering to the students the possibility to perform the evaluation in a modern way and to the evaluation committee a quick access to all necessary data.

  17. Parkinson's disease Assessment using Fuzzy Expert System and Nonlinear Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    GEMAN, O.

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new screening system for quantitative evaluation and analysis, designed for the early stage detection of Parkinson disease. This has been carried out in the view of improving the diagnosis currently established upon a basis of subjective scores. Parkinson?s disease (PD appears as a result of dopamine loss, a chemical mediator that is responsible for the body?s ability to control movements. The symptoms reflect the loss of nerve cells, due to an unknown. The input parameters of the system are represented by amplitude, frequency, the spectral characteristic and trembling localization. The main symptoms include trembling of hand, arms, movement difficulties, postural instability, disturbance of coordination and equilibrium, sleep disturbance, difficulties in speaking, reducing of voice volume. The medical knowledge in PD field is characterized by imprecision, uncertainty and vagueness. The proposed system (fuzzy expert systems is non-invasive and, easy to use by both physicians and patients at home.

  18. Importance assessment of decision attributes: A qualitative study comparing experts and laypersons

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heerkens, Johannes M.G.; Norde, Christiaan; van der Heijden, Beatrice

    2011-01-01

    Purpose – This paper aims to investigate differences between experts and laypersons concerning the way they assess the importance of each of the various decision attributes (cost, risk, feasibility) taken into consideration during decision processes in an organizational setting.

  19. Common problems in the elicitation and analysis of expert opinion affecting probabilistic safety assessments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meyer, M.A.; Booker, J.M.

    1990-01-01

    Expert opinion is frequently used in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), particularly in estimating low probability events. In this paper, we discuss some of the common problems encountered in eliciting and analyzing expert opinion data and offer solutions or recommendations. The problems are: that experts are not naturally Bayesian. People fail to update their existing information to account for new information as it becomes available, as would be predicted by the Bayesian philosophy; that experts cannot be fully calibrated. To calibrate experts, the feedback from the known quantities must be immediate, frequent, and specific to the task; that experts are limited in the number of things that they can mentally juggle at a time to 7 {plus minus} 2; that data gatherers and analysts can introduce bias by unintentionally causing an altering of the expert's thinking or answers; that the level of detail the data, or granularity, can affect the analyses; and the conditioning effect poses difficulties in gathering and analyzing of the expert data. The data that the expert gives can be conditioned on a variety of factors that can affect the analysis and the interpretation of the results. 31 refs.

  20. ONE APPROACH TO ASSESSING THE SIZE AND CAPACITY OF THE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly V. Korotkov

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the article is to study the economic and statistical essence and development of methods of calculation of the market’s size and capacity. Described further material is focused on experts on statistics of the market of goods and services, as well as marketers. Evaluation of size and capacity market is an extremely demanded in practice. However, a review of publications, scientific direction of research is the size and capacity of the market is not yet complete. Researchers are working to develop new approaches to the assessment of the market and to develop relevant procedures. Problems arise distinction between the notions of demand and market capacity. Theoretical basis of the research are the provisions of the economic theory, statistics of the market of goods and services, and marketing.

  1. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been modified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) 3 of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. 5 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs

  2. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change: integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-12-01

    Several case studies show that social factors like institutions, perceptions and social capital strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Together with economic and technological development they are important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of social factors. After reviewing existing methodologies we identify the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) by Gupta et al. (2010), developed for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions, as the most comprehensive and operationalised framework to assess social factors. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess 6 dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate; "adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in northwestern Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  3. Bridge between public perception and expert assessment of nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-09-01

    Preparation of the brief consisted of a comprehensive review of literature, selective interviews of available representative parties, and categorization of the spectrum of opinions. Analysis of the information thus obtained included identification of reconcilable and irreconcilable differences among the opinions and indication of possible ways to bridge some of the differences. Opinions were generally found to be best categorized as the pro, neutral, and contra opinions associated with experts and the public. The primary issues separating the opposing groups appear to be the following: 1) the required input for probabilistic risk analysis of accidents; 2) the evaluation of what constitutes an acceptable risk; 3) the evaluation of potential long-term consequences; 4) the general need for nuclear energy; and 5) the long-term risk to public health. Among the above issues, potential for reconciliation was found only for the first two, while the latter issues, because of the relatively short history of the industry and paucity of knowledge on relevant factors, were found difficult to reconcile without expansion of our present knowledge and data base. Reconciliation, generally, was proposed through augmentation of communication among the opposing groups through the availability of appropriate fora and development of a general spirit of good intention for a common cause: mankind's ultimate well-being

  4. Concepts of mental capacity for patients requesting assisted suicide: a qualitative analysis of expert evidence presented to the Commission on Assisted Dying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Annabel; McCormack, Ruaidhri; Wiseman, Theresa; Hotopf, Matthew

    2014-04-22

    In May 2013 a new Assisted Dying Bill was tabled in the House of Lords and is currently scheduled for a second reading in May 2014. The Bill was informed by the report of the Commission on Assisted Dying which itself was informed by evidence presented by invited experts.This study aims to explore how the experts presenting evidence to the Commission on Assisted Dying conceptualised mental capacity for patients requesting assisted suicide and examine these concepts particularly in relation to the principles of the Mental Capacity Act 2005. This study was a secondary qualitative analysis of 36 transcripts of oral evidence and 12 pieces of written evidence submitted by invited experts to the Commission on Assisted Dying using a framework approach. There was agreement on the importance of mental capacity as a central safeguard in proposed assisted dying legislation. Concepts of mental capacity, however, were inconsistent. There was a tendency towards a conceptual and clinical shift toward a presumption of incapacity. This appeared to be based on the belief that assisted suicide should only be open to those with a high degree of mental capacity to make the decision.The 'boundaries' around the definition of mental capacity appeared to be on a continuum between a circumscribed legal 'cognitive' definition of capacity (in which most applicants would be found to have capacity unless significantly cognitively impaired) and a more inclusive definition which would take into account wider concepts such as autonomy, rationality, voluntariness and decision specific factors such as motivation for decision making. Ideas presented to the Commission on Assisted Dying about mental capacity as it relates to assisted suicide were inconsistent and in a number of cases at variance with the principles of the Mental Capacity Act 2005. Further work needs to be done to establish a consensus as to what constitutes capacity for this decision and whether current legal frameworks are able to

  5. Installation Capacity Assessment of Damaged Deepwater Pipelines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramasamy R.

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The worldwide exploration and development of subsea and deepwater reservoirs has laid down some new and old engineering challenges to the offshore pipeline industry. This requires large D/t pipelines to be installed at water depths in the vicinity of up to 2700m. The deepwater collapse and buckle propagation event is almost unavoidable as the pipe wall thickness cannot be always determined from the codes and standards due to the limit state criteria. These codes also do not consider any fabrication imperfections and sustained damages emanating from transportation and handling. The objective of this paper is to present the Finite Element Analysis (FEA of dented pipes with D/t ratio more than 45, which is outside the applicability of current design codes, and to investigate the effects on installation capacity of these various damage sizes in terms of collapse and buckle propagation.

  6. Assessing institutional capacities to adapt to climate change - integrating psychological dimensions in the Adaptive Capacity Wheel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grothmann, T.; Grecksch, K.; Winges, M.; Siebenhüner, B.

    2013-03-01

    Several case studies show that "soft social factors" (e.g. institutions, perceptions, social capital) strongly affect social capacities to adapt to climate change. Many soft social factors can probably be changed faster than "hard social factors" (e.g. economic and technological development) and are therefore particularly important for building social capacities. However, there are almost no methodologies for the systematic assessment of soft social factors. Gupta et al. (2010) have developed the Adaptive Capacity Wheel (ACW) for assessing the adaptive capacity of institutions. The ACW differentiates 22 criteria to assess six dimensions: variety, learning capacity, room for autonomous change, leadership, availability of resources, fair governance. To include important psychological factors we extended the ACW by two dimensions: "adaptation motivation" refers to actors' motivation to realise, support and/or promote adaptation to climate. "Adaptation belief" refers to actors' perceptions of realisability and effectiveness of adaptation measures. We applied the extended ACW to assess adaptive capacities of four sectors - water management, flood/coastal protection, civil protection and regional planning - in North Western Germany. The assessments of adaptation motivation and belief provided a clear added value. The results also revealed some methodological problems in applying the ACW (e.g. overlap of dimensions), for which we propose methodological solutions.

  7. Probabilistic safety assessment based expert systems in support of dynamic risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varde, P.V.; Sharma, U.L.; Marik, S.K.; Raina, V.K.; Tikku, A.C.

    2006-01-01

    Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) studies are being performed, world over as part of integrated risk assessment for Nuclear Power Plants and in many cases PSA insight is utilized in support of decision making. Though the modern plants are built with inherent safety provisions, particularly to reduce the supervisory requirements during initial period into the accident, it is always desired to develop an efficient user friendly real-time operator advisory system for handling of plant transients/emergencies which would be of immense benefit for the enhancement of operational safety of the plant. This paper discusses an integrated approach for the development of operator support system. In this approach, PSA methodology and the insight obtained from PSA has been utilized for development of knowledge based or rule based experts system. While Artificial Neural Network (ANN) approach has been employed for transient identification, rule-base expert system shell environment was used for the development of diagnostic module in this system. Attempt has been made to demonstrate that this approach offers an efficient framework for addressing requirements related to handling of real-time/dynamic scenario. (author)

  8. Expert Systems Based Clinical Assessment and Tutorial Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papa, Frank; Shores, Jay

    This project at the Texas College of Osteopathic Medicine (Fort Worth) evaluated the use of an artificial-intelligence-derived measure, "Knowledge-Based Inference Tool" (KBIT), as the basis for assessing medical students' diagnostic capabilities and designing instruction to improve diagnostic skills. The instrument was designed to…

  9. Strategic Choice Analysis by Expert Panels for Migration Impact Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kourtit, K.; Nijkamp, P.

    2011-01-01

    International migration is a source of policy and research interest in many countries. This paper provides a review of experiences and findings from migration impact assessment worldwide. Various findings are briefly summarised in the context of a systematic migration SWOT analysis for five distinct

  10. 'What on earth can this possibly mean'? French reentry courts and experts' risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog-Evans, Martine

    2016-01-01

    Against the backdrop of ten years of punitive criminal justice policies, the number of cases in which risk assessments by psychiatrist experts are mandatory has considerably increased in France. Because of complex and deeply ingrained cultural factors, most experts and academics oppose the use of actuarial or other structured judgement tools, which they assimilate to these policy changes. Parallel to this, the reentry judges in charge of making release and other community sentence decisions have maintained a strong rehabilitative and desistance-focused culture. Drawing on interviews with these judges and experts, the author wanted to assess the judges' expectations of experts' reports, their opinion on actuarial tools, and how they perceived experts and their aptitude to assess risk. The study showed that French reentry judges manage to keep experts' conclusions at bay when they do not fit with their desistance goals, as they can draw upon their own expertise and that of probation services. They do not have much faith in the professionalism and methodology of experts, and would like them to better demonstrate how they reach their conclusions. Moreover, criminogenic needs assessment would be much more useful to them than static risk assessment, which raises the issue as to why this is not the French probation services' role. Reentry judges who never encountered a report which uses a structured tool are influenced by the French ideological debate; those who have read such reports are unanimously in favour of such tools. It thus seems clear that they would like experts to be more strongly guided by science, but are not yet fully aware of what this entails. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Littleboy, Anna; Hodgkinson, David

    2001-01-01

    Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development

  12. Engaging the expert in public dialogue: Developing the role of performance assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Littleboy, Anna [United Kingdom Nirex Ltd., Harwell (United Kingdom); Hodgkinson, David [Quintessa Ltd., Henley-on-Thames (United Kingdom)

    2001-07-01

    Participatory approaches to decision-making call for two-way dialogue with a wide range of stakeholders. In the United Kingdom, probabilistic performance assessments of a potential deep geological disposal facility have typically been undertaken by experts to meet regulations set by other experts. However, there is potential for performance assessments to fulfil the additional role of enabling dialogue with other stakeholder groups. This paper suggests developments in the focus and presentation of performance assessments to foster such dialogue. It reflects issues relevant to performance assessment that arise as waste management organisations consider the consequences of involving wider stakeholder groups in decision making about repository development.

  13. In the public interest: assessing expert and stakeholder influence in public deliberation about biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, Samantha; Burgess, Michael M

    2010-07-01

    Providing technical and experiential information without overwhelming participants' perspectives presents a major challenge to public involvement in policy decisions. This article reports the design and analysis of a case study on incorporating expert and stakeholder knowledge without including them as deliberators, while supporting deliberative participants' ability to introduce and critically assess different perspectives. Analysis of audio-recorded deliberations illustrates how expert and stakeholder knowledge was cited, criticized and incorporated into deliberations. In conclusion, separating experts and stakeholders from deliberations may be an important prima facie principle when the goal is to enhance citizen representation on technical issues and related policy.

  14. Assessment of policy makers' individual and organizational capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An evidence to policy self-assessment questionnaire was used to assess the capacity of forty MNCH policy makers to acquire, assess, adapt and apply research evidence for policy making. Results: Low mean ratings were observed ranging from 2.68-3.53 on a scale of 5 for knowledge about initiating/conducting research ...

  15. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts

    OpenAIRE

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2016-01-01

    Background Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. Methods This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images...

  16. Chinese academic experts' assessment for forest bio-energy development in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qu Mei; Ahponen, Pirkkoliisa; Tahvanainen, Liisa; Pelkonen, Paavo

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the current situation of the forest bio-energy development in China. This assessment is based on opinions of Chinese academic experts. Key drivers and uncertainties regarding the implementation, and the strategies for the future practices in the development of forest bio-energy were investigated. In addition, the purpose of this study was also to determine whether there is a consensus among the experts concerning forest bio-energy and if this consensus agrees with policy-makers in China. A thorough assessment was conducted using a two-round Delphi survey of sixty-one bio-energy experts in China. The results revealed the advantages, potential problems, and the experts' recommendations for the future development. Furthermore, the experts agreed that the Chinese government plays a dominant role in the development process of forest bio-energy in the country. The experts recognized that the process of developing forest bio-energy is a challenging task both domestically and globally. At the same time they also highlighted the potential benefits of developing forest bio-energy in China during the next ten years. The outcomes of this study could be used to give advice to policy-makers and to support the implementation of the future forest bio-energy policies in China.

  17. A Person-Centered Approach to Financial Capacity Assessment: Preliminary Development of a New Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lichtenberg, Peter A; Stoltman, Jonathan; Ficker, Lisa J; Iris, Madelyn; Mast, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Financial exploitation and financial capacity issues often overlap when a gerontologist assesses whether an older adult's financial decision is an autonomous, capable choice. Our goal is to describe a new conceptual model for assessing financial decisions using principles of person-centered approaches and to introduce a new instrument, the Lichtenberg Financial Decision Rating Scale (LFDRS). We created a conceptual model, convened meetings of experts from various disciplines to critique the model and provide input on content and structure, and select final items. We then videotaped administration of the LFDRS to five older adults and had 10 experts provide independent ratings. The LFDRS demonstrated good to excellent inter-rater agreement. The LFDRS is a new tool that allows gerontologists to systematically gather information about a specific financial decision and the decisional abilities in question.

  18. Plutonium fuel an assessment. Report by an expert group

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1989-01-01

    Since the 1950s, plutonium used in fast reactors has been seen as the key to unlocking the vast energy resources contained in the world's uranium reserves. However, the slowing down in projected installation rates of nuclear reactors, combined with discovery of additional uranium, have led to a postponement of the point in time when fast reactors will make large demands on plutonium supplies. There are several options concerning its use or storage in the meantime. This report sets out the facts and current views about plutonium and its civil use, both at present and in the medium term. It explains the factors influencing the choice of fuel options and illustrates how economic and logistic assessments of the alternatives can be undertaken

  19. Assessing Residents' Readiness for OR Autonomy: A Qualitative Descriptive Study of Expert Surgical Teachers' Best Practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaodong Phoenix; Sullivan, Amy M; Alseidi, Adnan; Kwakye, Gifty; Smink, Douglas S

    Providing resident autonomy in the operating room (OR) is one of the major challenges for surgical educators today. The purpose of this study was to explore what approaches expert surgical teachers use to assess residents' readiness for autonomy in the OR. We particularly focused on the assessments that experts make prior to conducting the surgical time-out. We conducted semistructured in-depth interviews with expert surgical teachers from March 2016 to September 2016. Purposeful sampling and snowball sampling were applied to identify and recruit expert surgical teachers from general surgery residency programs across the United States to represent a range of clinical subspecialties. All interviews were audio-recorded, deidentified, and transcribed. We applied the Framework Method of content analysis, discussed and reached final consensus on the themes. We interviewed 15 expert teachers from 9 institutions. The majority (13/15) were Program or Associate Program Directors; 47% (7/15) primarily performed complex surgical operations (e.g., endocrine surgery). Five themes regarding how expert surgical teachers determine residents' readiness for OR autonomy before the surgical time-out emerged. These included 3 domains of evidence elicited about the resident (resident characteristics, medical knowledge, and beyond the current OR case), 1 variable relating to attending characteristics, and 1 variable composed of contextual factors. Experts obtained one or more examples of evidence, and adjusted residents' initial autonomy using factors from the attending variable and the context variable. Expert surgical teachers' assessments of residents' readiness for OR autonomy included 5 key components. Better understanding these inputs can contribute to both faculty and resident development, enabling increased resident autonomy and preparation for independent practice. Copyright © 2017 Association of Program Directors in Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Assessment of the severity of asthma by an expert system. Description and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redier, H; Daures, J P; Michel, C; Proudhon, H; Vervloet, D; Charpin, D; Marsac, J; Dusser, D; Brambilla, C; Wallaert, B

    1995-02-01

    Asthmaexpert, an expert system (ES), was produced at the special request of several clinicians in order to better understand the medical decisions made clinical experts in managing an asthmatic patient. We describe and evaluate this knowledge base, focusing mainly on assessment of the severity of asthma. After compiling data from a patient, Asthmaexpert assesses the severity of the disease and identifies the trigger factors involved, suggests any further investigations that may be required, and offers a treatment strategy. Implemented with Nexpert and Hypercard, it runs on a MacIntosh personal computer. The validation stage involved eight clinical experts who provided 20 case report forms (CRF) with their conclusions about management of asthma. The CRF were then programmed into the ES, which provided its own conclusions about the same subjects. Afterward, all the experts evaluated the conclusions given by ES or by their colleagues in a double-blind manner. One hundred twenty-seven CRF were available. The reliability of the experts' opinions was good, with a substantial consensus between them when assessing severity scores (kappa = 0.27 to 0.54). There was no difference in concordance of opinions on severity scores either between the experts who designed the system and ES or between the other experts and ES (weighted kappa = 0.72 and 0.69, respectively). Experts judged that the severity scores given by ES were as good as those proposed by their colleagues, and that the overall conclusions given by ES were as good as or better than those given by their colleagues. The conclusions drawn by ES were given a good rating.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  1. EXPERT MODEL OF LAND SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Đurđević

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17404 soil samples (2003rd-2009th year were analysed in the eastern Croatia. The largest number of soil samples belongs to the Osijek-Baranya county, which together with both Eastern sugar beet Factories (Osijek and Županja, conduct the soil fertility control (~4200 samples/yr.. Computer model suitability assessment for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient enough reliable in terms of the number of analyzed soil samples. It allows the visualization of the agricultural area and prediction of its production properties for the purposes of analysis, planning and rationalization of agricultural production. With more precise data about the soil (soil, climate and reliable Digital Soil Map of Croatia, the model could be an acceptable, not only to evaluate the suitability for growing different crops but also their need for fertilizer, necessary machinery, repairs (liming, and other measures of organic matter input. The abovementioned aims to eliminate or reduce effects of limiting factors in primary agricultural production. Assessment of the relative benefits of soil presented by computer model for the crops production and geostatistical method kriging in the Osijek-Baranya county showed: 1 Average soil suitability being 60.06 percent. 2 Kriging predicted that 51751 ha (17.16% are of limited resources (N1 for growing crops whereas a 86142 ha (28.57% of land is limited suitably (S3, b 132789 ha (44.04% are moderately suitable (S2 and c 30772 ha (10.28% are of excellent fertility (S1. A large number of eastern Croatian land data showed that the computer-geostatistical model for determination of soil benefits for growing crops was automated, fast and simple to use and suitable for the implementation of GIS and automatically downloading the necessary benefit indicators from the input base (land, analytical and climate as well as data from the digital soil maps able to: a visualize the suitability for soil tillage, b predict the

  2. Methodological approaches to assessing of country’s financial capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.Yu. Polchanov

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This research is devoted to the theoretical basis of country’s financial capacity assessment, its specificities and algorithm. The aim of the investigation is the generalization of methodological approaches to evaluating country’s financial capacity. The author determines that the assessment involves preparatory, analytical, and final stages. The special attention is paid to the information based on the analysis, demands on it, impact of changes in methodology, dynamics of macroeconomic indicators. The establishment of the united analytical center for assessment of financial capacity of the state for post-conflict recovery is proposed. The results of the critical review of the publications in this field have helped to improve the classification of country’s financial capacity assessment methods by providing some new attributes such as the focus of the evaluation and type of intelligence. The problem of using unlicensed software to assess the financial capacity of the state and the associated risk have not been left without attention.

  3. Exploring experts' views and perspectives on the enhancement of Strategic Environmental Assessment in European small islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Polido, Alexandra, E-mail: a.polido@campus.fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal); João, Elsa, E-mail: elsa.joao@strath.ac.uk [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Strathclyde, Level 5, James Weir Building, 75 Montrose Street, Glasgow G1 1XJ, Scotland (United Kingdom); Ramos, Tomás B., E-mail: tabr@fct.unl.pt [CENSE, Center for Environmental and Sustainability Research, Departamento de Ciências e Engenharia do Ambiente, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade NOVA de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 2829-516 Caparica (Portugal)

    2016-04-15

    Small islands have the attention of the international community because they are territories with unique features, and a pressing need for the enhancement of sustainability. Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) has characteristics that may promote the development and improvement of sustainability in these territories: (i) changing the mind-set, and the decision-making and institutional paradigm, (ii) facilitating cooperation and coordination between different stakeholders, and (iii) providing a framework for good governance and community empowerment. The scientific literature suggests that there may be a need for context-specific SEA in these territories. However, SEA studies often do not incorporate local contextual information, including intuitive knowledge and sense of place. Therefore, there is a possible gap between what is found in the literature and what local communities think, including different stakeholders and experts. Hence, the main goal of this research was to gain an insight into the views and perspectives of small islands SEA experts about issues related to SEA in European small islands, including context-specific approaches, as well as the contribution of SEA for sustainability in these territories. To achieve the research aim, exploratory research using a questionnaire-based survey was designed, aimed at experts on SEA in European small islands. Findings showed regional cooperation networks may have a fundamental role when developing SEA-specific approaches in these territories. This is because SEA-specific approaches encourage a joint effort among islands within one region to improve SEA capacity-building, develop and share a baseline information system, and to share and exchange resources, overall. Also, guidelines are preferred among experts over more legal frameworks and regulations. Finally, the research showed that experts view SEA as a way to enhance sustainability in small islands. This study highlights the importance of integrating

  4. Pilot Use of a Novel Tool to Assess Neurosurgical Capacity in Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ploss, Brittany; Abdelgadir, Jihad; Smith, Emily R; Fuller, Anthony; Nickenig Vissoci, Joao Ricardo; Muhindo, Alex; Galukande, Moses; Haglund, Michael M

    2017-12-01

    There is a significant burden of unmet surgical need in many low- and middle-income countries (>80% in parts of Africa). This need is even larger for specialties such as neurosurgery. Surgical capacity tools have been developed and used to assess needs and plan for resource allocation. This study piloted a new tool to assess neurosurgical capacity and describes its use. A surgical capacity tool was adapted to assess neurosurgical capacity. An expert panel of neurosurgeons and researchers reviewed the Surgeons OverSeas PIPES (personnel, infrastructure, procedures, equipment, and supplies) assessment and added additional items essential to perform common neurosurgery procedures. This tool was then piloted at 3 public hospitals in Uganda and each hospital was given a score of neurosurgical capacity. At 1 hospital, 3 respondents were asked to answer the survey to assess reliability. The hospital with the largest neurosurgery caseload and 5 neurosurgeons scored the highest on our survey, followed by a regional hospital with 1 practicing neurosurgeon. The third hospital, without a neurosurgeon, scored the lowest on the scale. At the hospital that completed the reliability assessment, scores were varied between respondents. NeuroPIPES survey scores were in keeping with the number of neurosurgeons and respective caseloads of each hospital. However, the variation in scores between respondents at the same hospital suggests that adaptations could be made to the tool that may improve reliability and validity. The methodology used to create NeuroPIPES may be successfully applied to a variety of other surgical subspecialties for similar assessments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thang, B.; Sluis - Thiescheffer, R.J.W.; Bekker, M.M.; Eggen, J.H.; Vermeeren, A.P.O.S.; Ridder, de H.

    2008-01-01

    LOBBI Netherlands Consortium Subscribe (Full Service) Register (Limited Service, Free) Login Search: The ACM Digital Library The Guide Feedback Comparing the creativity of children's design solutions based on expert assessment Full text Pdf (3.04 MB) Source Interaction Design and Children archive

  6. The objective assessment of experts' and novices' suturing skills using an image analysis program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frischknecht, Adam C; Kasten, Steven J; Hamstra, Stanley J; Perkins, Noel C; Gillespie, R Brent; Armstrong, Thomas J; Minter, Rebecca M

    2013-02-01

    To objectively assess suturing performance using an image analysis program and to provide validity evidence for this assessment method by comparing experts' and novices' performance. In 2009, the authors used an image analysis program to extract objective variables from digital images of suturing end products obtained during a previous study involving third-year medical students (novices) and surgical faculty and residents (experts). Variables included number of stitches, stitch length, total bite size, travel, stitch orientation, total bite-size-to-travel ratio, and symmetry across the incision ratio. The authors compared all variables between groups to detect significant differences and two variables (total bite-size-to-travel ratio and symmetry across the incision ratio) to ideal values. Five experts and 15 novices participated. Experts' and novices' performances differed significantly (P 0.8) for total bite size (P = .009, d = 1.5), travel (P = .045, d = 1.1), total bite-size-to-travel ratio (P algorithm can extract variables from digital images of a running suture and rapidly provide quantitative summative assessment feedback. The significant differences found between groups confirm that this system can discriminate between skill levels. This image analysis program represents a viable training tool for objectively assessing trainees' suturing, a foundational skill for many medical specialties.

  7. Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Kramer, A.; Bottema, B.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. Methods: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

  8. Expert consensus on gender criteria for assessment in medical communication education.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dielissen, P.; Verdonk, P.; Bottema, B.; Kramer, A.; Lagro-Janssen, T.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to develop gender criteria that can be included in communication skills assessment in medical education. METHODS: A three-round Delphi study was conducted. The invited 59 participants were experts in the field of gender medicine education (n=28) and doctor-patient

  9. Capacity assessment of concrete containment vessels subjected to aircraft impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Andonov, Anton; Kostov, Marin; Iliev, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • An approach to assess the containment capacity to aircraft impact via fragility curves is proposed. • Momentum over Area was defined as most suitable reference parameter to describe the aircraft load. • The effect of the impact induced damages on the containment pressure capacity has been studied. • The studied containment shows no reduction of the pressure capacity for the investigated scenarios. • The effectiveness of innovative protective structure against aircraft impact has been evaluated. - Abstract: The paper describes the procedure and the results from the assessment of the vulnerability of a generic pre-stressed containment structure subjected to a large commercial aircraft impact. Impacts of Boeing 737, Boeing 767 and Boeing 747 have been considered. The containment vulnerability is expressed by fragility curves based on the results of a number of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Three reference parameters have been considered as impact intensity measure in the fragility curve definition: peak impact force (PIF), peak impact pressure (PIP) and Momentum over Area (MoA). Conclusions on the most suitable reference parameter as well on the vulnerability of such containment vessels are drawn. The influence of the aircraft impact induced damages on the containment ultimate pressure capacity is also assessed and some preliminary conclusions on this are drawn. The paper also addresses a conceptual design of a protective structure able to decrease the containment vulnerability and provide a preliminary assessment of the applicability of such concept.

  10. Capacity assessment of concrete containment vessels subjected to aircraft impact

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andonov, Anton, E-mail: anton.andonov@mottmac.com; Kostov, Marin; Iliev, Alexander

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • An approach to assess the containment capacity to aircraft impact via fragility curves is proposed. • Momentum over Area was defined as most suitable reference parameter to describe the aircraft load. • The effect of the impact induced damages on the containment pressure capacity has been studied. • The studied containment shows no reduction of the pressure capacity for the investigated scenarios. • The effectiveness of innovative protective structure against aircraft impact has been evaluated. - Abstract: The paper describes the procedure and the results from the assessment of the vulnerability of a generic pre-stressed containment structure subjected to a large commercial aircraft impact. Impacts of Boeing 737, Boeing 767 and Boeing 747 have been considered. The containment vulnerability is expressed by fragility curves based on the results of a number of nonlinear dynamic analyses. Three reference parameters have been considered as impact intensity measure in the fragility curve definition: peak impact force (PIF), peak impact pressure (PIP) and Momentum over Area (MoA). Conclusions on the most suitable reference parameter as well on the vulnerability of such containment vessels are drawn. The influence of the aircraft impact induced damages on the containment ultimate pressure capacity is also assessed and some preliminary conclusions on this are drawn. The paper also addresses a conceptual design of a protective structure able to decrease the containment vulnerability and provide a preliminary assessment of the applicability of such concept.

  11. Assessing fistula and obstetrical surgical capacity in South Kivu, DRC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen C. Morris

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Democratic Republic of Congo has suffered from decades of conflict and poverty. The Eastern DRC, in particular, continues to be a region dominated by instability, resulting in a fragmented health system. Governments and agencies interested in working towards improving health in the region are often challenged by an absence of knowledge of health metrics, limited capacity for health care delivery and overwhelming needs. The Harvard Humanitarian Initiative and Engender Health needs assessment, outlined in this report, demonstrates an effort to better understand the current state of surgical capacity in the region with an emphasis on needs and opportunities related to fistula repair.

  12. Sustainability assessment of energy technologies via social indicators: Results of a survey among European energy experts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gallego Carrera, Diana; Mack, Alexander

    2010-01-01

    Sustainability assessment of energy technologies oftentimes fails to account for social repercussions and long-term negative effects and benefits of energy systems. As part of the NEEDS project, an expert-based set of social indicators was developed and verified by the European stakeholders with the objective of contributing in the development of social indicators for the assessment of societal effects of energy systems. For this purpose, scientific experts from four sample countries France, Germany, Italy and Switzerland were interviewed to assess 16 different energy systems on a specific stakeholder reviewed indicator set. The indicator set covers the four main criteria: 'security and reliability of energy provision; 'political stability and legitimacy'; 'social and individual risks' and 'quality of life'. This article will review the process of indicator development and assessment and highlight results for today's most prominent and future energy technologies and some likely to make an impact in the future. Expert judgments varied considerably between countries and energy systems, with the exception of renewable technologies, which were overall positively assessed on almost all evaluation criteria.

  13. Assessments of ecosystem services and human well-being in Thailand build and create demand for coproductive capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Louis Lebel

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Assessments of ecosystem services have been proposed as one way of incorporating concerns about environmental change and ecosystem conditions into subnational development planning. In Thailand a policy window for such initiatives is opening because of a transition in national policy toward area-based planning combined with broader political reforms to expand public participation and encourage more evidence-based decision making. We explored three case studies in Thailand in which central and local government agencies and research organizations partnered to engage local communities and other stakeholders in assessments of ecosystem services and human well-being. The analysis focused on the role ecosystem assessments play in building and creating demand for coproductive capacity. By coproductive capacities we mean the ability to combine scientific resources and governance capabilities in ways that bring about informed social change. We found evidence that the assessments built capacities for governance actors to explore scientific and research-based evidence, to consult scientific experts, and then to evaluate existing policies and plans using this newly acquired information. At the same time, scientific experts also learned to explore public policy issues, to consult planners and decision makers in government, and based on this knowledge to evaluate scientific evidence and revise the scope and goals of their research and analytical activities to better meet policy needs and demands. Coproductive capacities were built when various stakeholders jointly engaged in compilation and interpretation of evidence. Doing so helped legitimize the assessment process with positive feedback on both governance and science capacities. We also found evidence, however, of significant cultural and institutional constraints to designing and making better use of ecosystem services assessments. These constraints included insufficient resources for both knowledge making

  14. Remarks on the assessment, representation, aggregation and utilization of expert opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fine, T.L.

    1980-04-01

    This report considers the relevance of recent ideas in the foundations of probability to the rational use of expert opinion in the design of a nuclear waste repository, and the assessment of its performance. The main probability concepts introduce are those of modal (probably A), comparative (A is at least as probable as B) and interval-valued (the lower probability of A is P(A) and the upper probability of A is P(anti A)) probabilities. We then outline an approach first using comparative probability to model the resuls of binary elicitation of an expert's opinions concerning repository uncertainties and then employing interval-valued probability to represent comparative probability in a computationally convenient form. We further consider the issue of aggregating or amalgamating the responses of several experts, and we emphasize the need to preserve some measure of the disagreements among the experts. The resulting aggregated interval-valued representation of the responses concerning the uncertainties surrounding the performance of a nuclear waste repository design can then be used to numerically assess this performance in a manner parallel to that of utility theory. Utility theory is the basis for statistical decision theory. Our recommendations can only be tentative, and research is recommended to gain some working experience with the results of the proposed decision-making process in the repostory design context

  15. Health risk assessment for nanoparticles: A case for using expert judgment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kandlikar, Milind; Ramachandran, Gurumurthy; Maynard, Andrew; Murdock, Barbara; Toscano, William A.

    2007-01-01

    Uncertainties in conventional quantitative risk assessment typically relate to values of parameters in risk models. For many environmental contaminants, there is a lack of sufficient information about multiple components of the risk assessment framework. In such cases, the use of default assumptions and extrapolations to fill in the data gaps is a common practice. Nanoparticle risks, however, pose a new form of risk assessment challenge. Besides a lack of data, there is deep scientific uncertainty regarding every aspect of the risk assessment framework: (a) particle characteristics that may affect toxicity; (b) their fate and transport through the environment; (c) the routes of exposure and the metrics by which exposure ought to be measured; (d) the mechanisms of translocation to different parts of the body; and (e) the mechanisms of toxicity and disease. In each of these areas, there are multiple and competing models and hypotheses. These are not merely parametric uncertainties but uncertainties about the choice of the causal mechanisms themselves and the proper model variables to be used, i.e., structural uncertainties. While these uncertainties exist for PM2.5 as well, risk assessment for PM2.5 has avoided dealing with these issues because of a plethora of epidemiological studies. However, such studies don't exist for the case of nanoparticles. Even if such studies are done in the future, they will be very specific to a particular type of engineered nanoparticle and not generalizable to other nanoparticles. Therefore, risk assessment for nanoparticles will have to deal with the various uncertainties that were avoided in the case of PM2.5. Consequently, uncertainties in estimating risks due to nanoparticle exposures may be characterized as 'extreme'. This paper proposes a methodology by which risk analysts can cope with such extreme uncertainty. One way to make these problems analytically tractable is to use expert judgment approaches to study the degree of

  16. Expert clinical reasoning and pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients: A descriptive study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Anne; Thevoz, Anne-Laure; Ramelet, Anne-Sylvie

    2015-02-01

    Pain assessment in mechanically ventilated patients is challenging, because nurses need to decode pain behaviour, interpret pain scores, and make appropriate decisions. This clinical reasoning process is inherent to advanced nursing practice, but is poorly understood. A better understanding of this process could contribute to improved pain assessment and management. This study aimed to describe the indicators that influence expert nurses' clinical reasoning when assessing pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. This descriptive observational study was conducted in the adult intensive care unit (ICU) of a tertiary referral hospital in Western Switzerland. A purposive sample of expert nurses, caring for nonverbal ventilated patients who received sedation and analgesia, were invited to participate in the study. Data were collected in "real life" using recorded think-aloud combined with direct non-participant observation and brief interviews. Data were analysed using deductive and inductive content analyses using a theoretical framework related to clinical reasoning and pain. Seven expert nurses with an average of 7.85 (±3.1) years of critical care experience participated in the study. The patients had respiratory distress (n=2), cardiac arrest (n=2), sub-arachnoid bleeding (n=1), and multi-trauma (n=2). A total of 1344 quotes in five categories were identified. Patients' physiological stability was the principal indicator for making decision in relation to pain management. Results also showed that it is a permanent challenge for nurses to discriminate situations requiring sedation from situations requiring analgesia. Expert nurses mainly used working knowledge and patterns to anticipate and prevent pain. Patient's clinical condition is important for making decision about pain in critically ill nonverbal patients. The concept of pain cannot be assessed in isolation and its assessment should take the patient's clinical stability and sedation into account. Further

  17. Expert elicitation for deriving input data for probabilistic risk assessment of shipwrecks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landquist, H; Norrman, J; Lindhe, A; Norberg, T; Hassellöv, I-M; Lindgren, J F; Rosén, L

    2017-12-15

    The necessity of having a process in place for adequate risk assessment of shipwrecks that pose a threat to the marine environment is today internationally acknowledged. However, retrieving the desired data for such a risk assessment can prove challenging. One means of addressing this problem is to make use of experts' knowledge and experience. The purpose of this paper is therefore to present and analyse data for risk assessment of shipwrecks derived by expert elicitation. The main outcome is the experts' estimations of (i) the generic probability of an opening in a shipwreck due to the occurrence of a number of activities and (ii) estimations of the degree to which site-specific and wreck-specific indicators affect the probability of opening. Results show that the derived information is applicable in probabilistic shipwreck risk assessment and that the VRAKA framework now contains needed information for integrating generic and site-specific information using Bayesian updating. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Developing a Capacity Assessment Framework for Marine Logistics Groups

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-02-20

    Corps, 2015; and 1st Marine Logistics Group, 2015. RAND RR1572-2.3 1st FSSG Headquarters Regiment Security Company CLR-1 CLR-15 7th ESB 1st Medical... Companies . Supply and maintenance battalions form the bulk of CLR-15. The Combat Logistics Companies are small, task-organized companies that support Marine...under- standing logistics capacity as it pertains to informing decisions to improve efficiencies and reduce costs . Most often these assessments of

  19. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eyles, John; Heddle, Nancy; Webert, Kathryn; Arnold, Emmy; McCurdy, Bronwen

    2011-08-24

    Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  20. Do expert assessments converge? An exploratory case study of evaluating and managing a blood supply risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnold Emmy

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Examining professional assessments of a blood product recall/withdrawal and its implications for risk and public health, the paper introduces ideas about perceptions of minimal risk and its management. It also describes the context of publicly funded blood transfusion in Canada and the withdrawal event that is the basis of this study. Methods Interviews with 45 experts from administration, medicine, blood supply, laboratory services and risk assessment took place using a multi-level sampling framework in the aftermath of the recall. These experts either directly dealt with the withdrawal or were involved in the management of the blood supply at the national level. Data from these interviews were coded in NVivo for analysis and interpretation. Analytically, data were interpreted to derive typifications to relate interview responses to risk management heuristics. Results While all those interviewed agreed on the importance of patient safety, differences in the ways in which the risk was contextualized and explicated were discerned. Risk was seen in terms of patient safety, liability or precaution. These different risk logics are illustrated by selected quotations. Conclusions Expert assessments did not fully converge and it is possible that these different risk logics and discourses may affect the risk management process more generally, although not necessarily in a negative way. Patient safety is not to be compromised but management of blood risk in publicly funded systems may vary. We suggest ways of managing blood risk using formal and safety case approaches.

  1. Kansas Department of Transportation column expert : ultimate shear capacity of circular columns using the simplified modified compression field theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The importance of the analysis of circular columns to accurately predict their ultimate confined : capacity under shear-flexure-axial force interaction domain is recognized in light of the extreme load event : imposed by the current American Associat...

  2. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Hora, S.C.

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session, designed to

  3. Expert judgements in performance assessments. Report of an SKI/SSI seminar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A. [Galson Sciences Ltd, Oakham (United Kingdom); Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2000-09-01

    Expert judgements are an important element of all performance assessments and are made when alternative approaches to decision-making are not available or are not feasible. Decisions regarding the scope of a particular assessment or the type of modelling approach adopted must be made through judgements because there are no observations that can be made. Similarly, any assumptions concerning human activities in the far future are essentially speculative and must be based on expert judgement. Observations of spatial heterogeneity within a disposal system may, on the other hand, be theoretically possible but not be feasible because of excessive cost or because they would adversely affect the system they were intended to characterise. Because there is a wide range of judgements made within a performance assessment, there are several ways of making the judgements and of assessing how they have been made. Judgements may, for example, be made by individuals or by groups, and they may be formally elicited or made without formal elicitation. Dialogue with stake holders can be an important means of assessing judgements, as can peer review. Documentation is a key element throughout the process of making and reviewing judgements, and appropriate quality assurance procedures can also build confidence in judgements. In order to develop an understanding of the processes of making and assessing judgements, the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate (SKI) and the Swedish Radiation Protection Institute (SSI) jointly sponsored a seminar entitled 'The Use of Expert Judgements in Performance Assessments'. The seminar was held in Norrtaelje, Sweden, on 17-19 January 2000. The seminar was organised by Galson Sciences Ltd (GSL) on behalf of SKI, and conducted jointly by GSL and Professor Steve Hora of the University of Hawaii. Participants at the seminar included SKI and SSI staff and independent experts. A key element of the seminar was an illustrative expert elicitation session

  4. Ultimate load capacity assessment of reinforced concrete shell structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gupta, Amita; Singh, R.K.; Kushwaha, H.S.; Mahajan, S.C.; Kakodkar, A.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this study is to develop capability for prediction of ultimate load capacity of reinforced concrete shell structures. The present finite element code ULCA (Ultimate Load Capacity Assessment) adopts a degenerate concept of formulating general isoparametric shell element with a layered approach in the thickness direction. Different failure modes such as crushing, tensile cracking and reinforcement yielding are recognised for various problems. The structure fails by crushing of concrete when the concrete strain/stress reaches the ultimate stress or strain of concrete. Material nonlinearities as a result of tension cracking, tension stiffening between reinforcement and concrete in cracked region and yielding of reinforcement are considered along with geometric nonlinearity. Thus with this code it is possible to predict the pressure at which the first cracking, first through thickness cracking, first yielding of reinforcement occurs. After validating the code with few bench mark problems for different failure modes a reinforced concrete nuclear containment is analysed for its ultimate capacity and the results are matched with the published results. Further the ultimate load capacity of outer containment wall of Narora Atomic Power Station is predicted. It is observed that containment fails in membrane region and has a sufficient margin against design pressure. (author). 9 refs., 56 figs., 3 tabs., 1 appendix with 4 tabs

  5. Use of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in expert systems to advise nuclear plant operators and managers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1988-01-01

    The use of expert systems in nuclear power plants to provide advice to managers, supervisors and/or operators is a concept that is rapidly gaining acceptance. Generally, expert systems rely on the expertise of human experts or knowledge that has been codified in publications, books, or regulations to provide advice under a wide variety of conditions. In this work, a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of a nuclear power plant performed previously is used to assess the safety status of nuclear power plants and to make recommendations to the plant personnel. Nuclear power plants have many redundant systems and can continue to operate when one or more of these systems is disabled or removed from service for maintenance or testing. PRAs provide a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants with components or systems out of service. While the choice of the source term and methodology in a PRA may influence the absolute probability and consequences of a core melt, the ratio of the PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration to the other

  6. Application of expert-notice dialogue (END) method to assess students’ science communication ability on biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriyati, S.; Amelia, D. N.; Soniyana, G. T.

    2018-05-01

    Student’s science communication ability can be assessed by the Expert-Notice Dialogue (END) method which focusing on verbal explanations using graphs or images as a tool. This study aims to apply the END method to assess students’ science communication ability. The study was conducted in two high schools with each sample of one class at each school (A and B). The number of experts in class A is 8 students and 7 in class B, the number of notice in class A 24 students and 30 in class B. The material chosen for explanation by expert is Ecosystem in class A and plant classification in class B. Research instruments are rubric of science communication ability, observation rubric, notice concept test and notice questionnaire. The implementation recorded with a video camera and then transcribed based on rubric science communication ability. The results showed that the average of science communication ability in class A and B was 60% and 61.8%, respectively, in enough categories. Mastery of the notice concept is in good category with 79.10 averages in class A and 94.64 in class B. Through the questionnaire notice it is known that the END method generally helps notice in understanding the concept.

  7. Assessment of capacity-building activities for forest measurement, reporting, and verification, 2011–15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peneva-Reed, Elitsa I.; Romijn, J. Erika

    2018-05-31

    publication argued that plausible association, although not a precise measurement of cause and effect, was a realistic tool. Our review of the available literature on this subject did not find another similar assessment to assess capacity-building activities for supporting the countries in building MRV system for REDD+.Four countries from the main forested regions of Africa, the Americas, and Asia were chosen as subjects for this report based on the length of time SilvaCarbon and other providers have provided capacity-building activities toward MRV system for REDD+: Colombia (the Americas), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC; Africa), Peru (the Americas), and the Republic of the Philippines (referred to as “the Philippines” hereafter; Asia).Several providers were contacted for information to include in this report, but, because of various constraints, only SilvaCarbon, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) participated in this study. These three providers supported various targeted capacity-building activities through-out Africa, the Americas, and Asia, including the following: technical workshops at national and regional levels (referred to as “workshops” hereafter), hands on training, study tours, technical details by experts, technical consultation between providers and recipients, sponsorship for travel, organizing network meetings, developing sampling protocols, assessing deforestation and degradation drivers, estimating carbon stock and flow, designing monitoring systems for multiple uses, promoting public-private partnerships to scale up investments on MRV system for REDD+, and assisting with the design of national forest monitoring systems.Their activities were planned in coordination with key partners in each country and region and with the support and assistance of other providers. Note that several other organizations and institutions assisted the providers to deliver capacity

  8. Assessing materials handling and storage capacities in port terminals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dinu, O.; Roşca, E.; Popa, M.; Roşca, M. A.; Rusca, A.

    2017-08-01

    Terminals constitute the factual interface between different modes and, as a result, buffer stocks are unavoidable whenever transport flows with different discontinuities meet. This is the reason why assessing materials handling and storage capacities is an important issue in the course of attempting to increase operative planning of logistic processes in terminals. Proposed paper starts with a brief review of the compatibilities between different sorts of materials and corresponding transport modes and after, a literature overview of the studies related to ports terminals and their specialization is made. As a methodology, discrete event simulation stands as a feasible technique for assessing handling and storage capacities at the terminal, taking into consideration the multi-flows interaction and the non-uniform arrivals of vessels and inland vehicles. In this context, a simulation model, that integrates the activities of an inland water terminal and describes the essential interactions between the subsystems which influence the terminal capacity, is developed. Different scenarios are simulated for diverse sorts of materials, leading to bottlenecks identification, performance indicators such as average storage occupancy rate, average dwell or transit times estimations, and their evolution is analysed in order to improve the transfer operations in the logistic process

  9. The Use of Telemedicine Access to Schools to Facilitate Expert Assessment of Children with Asthma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David A. Bergman

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Research has shown that access to an asthma specialist improves asthma outcomes. We hypothesized that we could improve access to expert asthma care through a telemedicine link between an asthma specialist and a school-based asthma program. We conducted a prospective cohort study in 3 urban schools to ascertain the feasibility of using an asthma-focused telemedicine solution. Each subject was seen by an asthma expert at 0, 8, and 32 weeks. The assessment and recommendations for care were sent to the primary care physician (PCP and parents were told to contact their physician for follow-up care. Eighty three subjects participated in the study. Subjects experienced improvement (P<.05 in family social activities and the number of asthma attacks. Ninety four percent of subjects rated the program as good or excellent. This study demonstrates the feasibility and acceptance of a school-based asthma program using a telemedicine link to an asthma specialist.

  10. Use of expert systems in the structural safety assessment of of pressurized nuclear components

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jovanovic, A.; Sturm, D.

    1990-01-01

    The paper describes research currently performed at MPA Stuttgart on development of expert systems and application of artificial intelligence methods and techniques, for structural safety assessment of power plant pressurized components. The research is done as an extension of preceding and existing large research programs of MPA, in the domain of structural safety of components. In this preceding research a waste amount of practical engineering knowledge and experience has been accumulated: development in the direction of AI-based systems is a way to use this knowledge more efficiently in future research and in the nuclear power plant practice. Applications on which the current research is focussed are expert systems applied for the leak-before-break analysis for the structural safety evaluation in high temperature regimes

  11. Probabilistic Capacity Assessment of Lattice Transmission Towers under Strong Wind

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei eZhang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Serving as one key component of the most important lifeline infrastructure system, transmission towers are vulnerable to multiple nature hazards including strong wind and could pose severe threats to the power system security with possible blackouts under extreme weather conditions, such as hurricanes, derechoes, or winter storms. For the security and resiliency of the power system, it is important to ensure the structural safety with enough capacity for all possible failure modes, such as structural stability. The study is to develop a probabilistic capacity assessment approach for transmission towers under strong wind loads. Due to the complicated structural details of lattice transmission towers, wind tunnel experiments are carried out to understand the complex interactions of wind and the lattice sections of transmission tower and drag coefficients and the dynamic amplification factor for different panels of the transmission tower are obtained. The wind profile is generated and the wind time histories are simulated as a summation of time-varying mean and fluctuating components. The capacity curve for the transmission towers is obtained from the incremental dynamic analysis (IDA method. To consider the stochastic nature of wind field, probabilistic capacity curves are generated by implementing IDA analysis for different wind yaw angles and different randomly generated wind speed time histories. After building the limit state functions based on the maximum allowable drift to height ratio, the probabilities of failure are obtained based on the meteorological data at a given site. As the transmission tower serves as the key nodes for the power network, the probabilistic capacity curves can be incorporated into the performance based design of the power transmission network.

  12. Expert validation of fit-for-purpose guidelines for designing programmes of assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dijkstra Joost

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An assessment programme, a purposeful mix of assessment activities, is necessary to achieve a complete picture of assessee competence. High quality assessment programmes exist, however, design requirements for such programmes are still unclear. We developed guidelines for design based on an earlier developed framework which identified areas to be covered. A fitness-for-purpose approach defining quality was adopted to develop and validate guidelines. Methods First, in a brainstorm, ideas were generated, followed by structured interviews with 9 international assessment experts. Then, guidelines were fine-tuned through analysis of the interviews. Finally, validation was based on expert consensus via member checking. Results In total 72 guidelines were developed and in this paper the most salient guidelines are discussed. The guidelines are related and grouped per layer of the framework. Some guidelines were so generic that these are applicable in any design consideration. These are: the principle of proportionality, rationales should underpin each decisions, and requirement of expertise. Logically, many guidelines focus on practical aspects of assessment. Some guidelines were found to be clear and concrete, others were less straightforward and were phrased more as issues for contemplation. Conclusions The set of guidelines is comprehensive and not bound to a specific context or educational approach. From the fitness-for-purpose principle, guidelines are eclectic, requiring expertise judgement to use them appropriately in different contexts. Further validation studies to test practicality are required.

  13. Reserves in load capacity assessment of existing bridges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žitný, Jan; Ryjáček, Pavel

    2017-09-01

    High percentage of all railway bridges in the Czech Republic is made of structural steel. Majority of these bridges is designed according to historical codes and according to the deterioration, they have to be assessed if they satisfy the needs of modern railway traffic. The load capacity assessment of existing bridges according to Eurocodes is however often too conservative and especially, braking and acceleration forces cause huge problems to structural elements of the bridge superstructure. The aim of this paper is to review the different approaches for the determination of braking and acceleration forces. Both, current and historical theoretical models and in-situ measurements are considered. The research of several local European state norms superior to Eurocode for assessment of existing railway bridges shows the big diversity of used local approaches and the conservativeness of Eurocode. This paper should also work as an overview for designers dealing with load capacity assessment, revealing the reserves for existing bridges. Based on these different approaches, theoretical models and data obtained from the measurements, the method for determination of braking and acceleration forces on the basis of real traffic data should be proposed.

  14. Expert assessments and content analysis of crew communication during ISS missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusupova, Anna

    During the last seven years, we have analyzed the communication patterns between ISS crewmembers and mission control personnel and identified a number of different communication styles between these two groups (Gushin et al, 2005). In this paper, we will report on an external validity check we conducted that compares our findings with those of another study using the same research material. For many years the group of psychologists at the Medical Center of Space Flight Control (TCUMOKO) at the Institute for Biomedical Problems (IBMP) in Moscow has been analyzing audio communication sessions of Russian space crews with the ground-based Mission Control during long-duration spaceflight conditions. We compared week by week texts of the standard weekly monitoring reports made by the TsUP psychological group and audiocommunication of space crews with mission control centers. Expert assessments of the crewmembers' psychological state are made by IBMP psychoneurologists on the basis of daily schedule fulfillment, video and audio materials, and psychophysiological data from board. The second approach was based on the crew-ground communication analysis. For both population of messages we applied two corresponding schemas of content analysis. All statements made in communication sessions and weekly reports were divided into three groups in terms of their communication function (Lomov, 1981): 1) informative function (e.g., demands for information, requests, professional slang); 2) socio-regulatory function (e.g., rational consent or discord, operational complaint, refusal to cooperate); and 3) affective (emotional) function (e.g., encouragement, sympathy, emotional consent or discord). Number of statements of the audiocommunication sessions correlated with corresponding functions (informative, regulatory, affective) of communication in weekly monitioring reports made by experts. Crewmembers verbal behavior expresses its psycho-emotional state which is formulated by expert

  15. Assessing an Adolescent's Capacity for Autonomous Decision-Making in Clinical Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaud, Pierre-André; Blum, Robert Wm; Benaroyo, Lazare; Zermatten, Jean; Baltag, Valentina

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide policy guidance on how to assess the capacity of minor adolescents for autonomous decision-making without a third party authorization, in the field of clinical care. In June 2014, a two-day meeting gathered 20 professionals from all continents, working in the field of adolescent medicine, neurosciences, developmental and clinical psychology, sociology, ethics, and law. Formal presentations and discussions were based on a literature search and the participants' experience. The assessment of adolescent decision-making capacity includes the following: (1) a review of the legal context consistent with the principles of the Convention on the Rights of the Child; (2) an empathetic relationship between the adolescent and the health care professional/team; (3) the respect of the adolescent's developmental stage and capacities; (4) the inclusion, if relevant, of relatives, peers, teachers, or social and mental health providers with the adolescent's consent; (5) the control of coercion and other social forces that influence decision-making; and (6) a deliberative stepwise appraisal of the adolescent's decision-making process. This stepwise approach, already used among adults with psychiatric disorders, includes understanding the different facets of the given situation, reasoning on the involved issues, appreciating the outcomes linked with the decision(s), and expressing a choice. Contextual and psychosocial factors play pivotal roles in the assessment of adolescents' decision-making capacity. The evaluation must be guided by a well-established procedure, and health professionals should be trained accordingly. These proposals are the first to have been developed by a multicultural, multidisciplinary expert panel. Copyright © 2015 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. A guide on the elicitation of expert knowledge in constructing BBN for quantitative reliability assessment of safety critical software

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eom, H. S.; Kang, H. G.; Chang, S. C.; Ha, J. J.

    2003-08-01

    This report describes the methodology which could elicit probabilistic representation from the experts' knowledge or qualitative data. It is necessary to elicit expert's knowledge while we quantitatively assess the reliability of safety critical software using Bayesian Belief Nets(BBNs). Especially in composing the node probability table and in making out the input data for BBN model, experts' qualitative judgment or qualitative data should be converted into probabilistic representation. This conversion process is vulnerable to bias or error. The purpose of the report is to provide the guideline to avoid the occurrence of this kinds of bias/error or to eliminate them which is included in the existing data prepared by experts. The contents of the report are: o The types and the explanation of bias and error The types of bias and error which might be occur in the process of eliciting the expert's knowledge. o The procedure of expert's judgment elicitation. The process and techniques to avoid bias and error in eliciting the expert's judgments. o The examples of expert's knowledge appeared in the BBNs The examples of expert's knowledge (probability values) appeared in the BBNs for assessing the safety of digital system

  17. On Consistency Test Method of Expert Opinion in Ecological Security Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Zaiwu; Wang, Lihong

    2017-09-04

    To reflect the initiative design and initiative of human security management and safety warning, ecological safety assessment is of great value. In the comprehensive evaluation of regional ecological security with the participation of experts, the expert's individual judgment level, ability and the consistency of the expert's overall opinion will have a very important influence on the evaluation result. This paper studies the consistency measure and consensus measure based on the multiplicative and additive consistency property of fuzzy preference relation (FPR). We firstly propose the optimization methods to obtain the optimal multiplicative consistent and additively consistent FPRs of individual and group judgments, respectively. Then, we put forward a consistency measure by computing the distance between the original individual judgment and the optimal individual estimation, along with a consensus measure by computing the distance between the original collective judgment and the optimal collective estimation. In the end, we make a case study on ecological security for five cities. Result shows that the optimal FPRs are helpful in measuring the consistency degree of individual judgment and the consensus degree of collective judgment.

  18. Soil Phosphorus Storage Capacity for Environmental Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vimala D. Nair

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable techniques must be developed to predict phosphorus (P storage and release from soils of uplands, ditches, streams, and wetlands in order to better understand the natural, anthropogenic, and legacy sources of P and their impact on water quality at a field/plot as well as larger scales. A concept called the “safe” soil phosphorus storage capacity (SPSC that is based on a threshold phosphorus saturation ratio (PSR has been developed; the PSR is the molar ratio of P to Fe and Al, and SPSC is a PSR-based calculation of the remaining soil P storage capacity that captures risks arising from previous loading as well as inherently low P sorption capacity of a soil. Zero SPSC amounts to a threshold value below which P runoff or leaching risk increases precipitously. In addition to the use of the PSR/SPSC concept for P risk assessment and management, and its ability to predict isotherm parameters such as the Langmuir strength of bonding, KL, and the equilibrium P concentration, EPC0, this simple, cost-effective, and quantitative approach has the potential to be used as an agronomic tool for more precise application of P for plant uptake.

  19. Geriatric Assessment-Guided Care Processes for Older Adults: A Delphi Consensus of Geriatric Oncology Experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohile, Supriya Gupta; Velarde, Carla; Hurria, Arti; Magnuson, Allison; Lowenstein, Lisa; Pandya, Chintan; O'Donovan, Anita; Gorawara-Bhat, Rita; Dale, William

    2015-09-01

    Structured care processes that provide a framework for how oncologists can incorporate geriatric assessment (GA) into clinical practice could improve outcomes for vulnerable older adults with cancer, a growing population at high risk of toxicity from cancer treatment. We sought to obtain consensus from an expert panel on the use of GA in clinical practice and to develop algorithms of GA-guided care processes. The Delphi technique, a well-recognized structured and reiterative process to reach consensus, was used. Participants were geriatric oncology experts who attended NIH-funded U13 or Cancer and Aging Research Group conferences. Consensus was defined as an interquartile range of 2 or more units, or 66.7% or greater, selecting a utility/helpfulness rating of 7 or greater on a 10-point Likert scale. For nominal data, consensus was defined as agreement among 66.7% or more of the group. From 33 invited, 30 participants completed all 3 rounds. Most experts (75%) used GA in clinical care, and the remainder were involved in geriatric oncology research. The panel met consensus that "all patients aged 75 years or older and those who are younger with age-related health concerns" should undergo GA and that all domains (function, physical performance, comorbidity/polypharmacy, cognition, nutrition, psychological status, and social support) should be included. Consensus was met for how GA could guide nononcologic interventions and cancer treatment decisions. Algorithms for GA-guided care processes were developed. This Delphi investigation of geriatric oncology experts demonstrated that GA should be performed for older patients with cancer to guide care processes. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

  20. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue.

  1. Quantitative assessment of multiple sclerosis lesion load using CAD and expert input

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gertych, Arkadiusz; Wong, Alexis; Sangnil, Alan; Liu, Brent J.

    2008-03-01

    Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a frequently encountered neurological disease with a progressive but variable course affecting the central nervous system. Outline-based lesion quantification in the assessment of lesion load (LL) performed on magnetic resonance (MR) images is clinically useful and provides information about the development and change reflecting overall disease burden. Methods of LL assessment that rely on human input are tedious, have higher intra- and inter-observer variability and are more time-consuming than computerized automatic (CAD) techniques. At present it seems that methods based on human lesion identification preceded by non-interactive outlining by CAD are the best LL quantification strategies. We have developed a CAD that automatically quantifies MS lesions, displays 3-D lesion map and appends radiological findings to original images according to current DICOM standard. CAD is also capable to display and track changes and make comparison between patient's separate MRI studies to determine disease progression. The findings are exported to a separate imaging tool for review and final approval by expert. Capturing and standardized archiving of manual contours is also implemented. Similarity coefficients calculated from quantities of LL in collected exams show a good correlation of CAD-derived results vs. those incorporated as expert's reading. Combining the CAD approach with an expert interaction may impact to the diagnostic work-up of MS patients because of improved reproducibility in LL assessment and reduced time for single MR or comparative exams reading. Inclusion of CAD-generated outlines as DICOM-compliant overlays into the image data can serve as a better reference in MS progression tracking.

  2. Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems: the feasibility of computer interrogation of experts for WISAP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wight, L.H.

    1980-05-01

    Simulation of the response of a waste repository to events that could initiate a fault tree to breach and failure is currently a keystone to the Battelle Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). The repository simulation, which is part of the Disruptive Event Analysis Task, models the repository for its entire design life, one million years. This is clearly a challenging calculation, requiring input unlike any other response analysis by virtue of the long design life of the facility. What technology will provide design criteria for a million year design life. Answers to questions like this can, to some extent, be based on data, but always require some subjective judgments. The subjectivity, which is sometimes driven by inadequate or incomplete data or by a lack of understanding of the physical process, is therefore a crucial ingredient in an analysis of initiating events. Because of the variety of possible initiating events (glaciation, man-caused disruption, volcanism, etc.), many expert opinions will be solicited as input. The complexity of the simulation, the variety of experts involved, and the volume of applicable data all suggest that there may be a more direct, economical method to solicit the expert opinion. This report addresses the feasibility of such a system. Background information is presented that demonstrates the advantages of a computer interrogation system over conventional interrogation and assessment techniques. In the subsequent three sections the three elements - structure and decomposition, scaling, and synthesis - that are basic to any interrogation and assessment technique are reviewed. The interrelationship are schematically illustrated between these three fundamental elements and, therefore, serves as a useful guide to these three sections. Each of these three sections begins with a recommended approach to the particular element and ends with an illustration of representative dialogue

  3. Self vs expert assessment of technical and non-technical skills in high fidelity simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arora, Sonal; Miskovic, Danilo; Hull, Louise; Moorthy, Krishna; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Johannsson, Helgi; Gautama, Sanjay; Kneebone, Roger; Sevdalis, Nick

    2011-10-01

    Accurate assessment is imperative for learning, feedback and progression. The aim of this study was to examine whether surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical and nontechnical skills compared with expert faculty members' assessments. Twenty-five surgeons performed a laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) in a simulated operating room. Technical and nontechnical performance was assessed by participants and faculty members using the validated Objective Structured Assessment of Technical Skills (OSATS) and the Non-Technical Skills for Surgeons scale (NOTSS). Assessment of technical performance correlated between self and faculty members' ratings for experienced (median score, 30.0 vs 31.0; ρ = .831; P = .001) and inexperienced (median score, 22.0 vs 28.0; ρ = .761; P = .003) surgeons. Assessment of nontechnical skills between self and faculty members did not correlate for experienced surgeons (median score, 8.0 vs 10.5; ρ = -.375; P = .229) or their more inexperienced counterparts (median score, 9.0 vs 7.0; ρ = -.018; P = .953). Surgeons can accurately self-assess their technical skills in virtual reality LC. Conversely, formal assessment with faculty members' input is required for nontechnical skills, for which surgeons lack insight into their behaviours. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Ranking of options of real estate use by expert assessments mathematical processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lepikhina, O. Yu; Skachkova, M. E.; Mihaelyan, T. A.

    2018-05-01

    The article is devoted to the development of the real estate assessment concept. In conditions of multivariate using of the real estate method based on calculating, the integral indicator of each variant’s efficiency is proposed. In order to calculate weights of criteria of the efficiency expert method, Analytic hierarchy process and its mathematical support are used. The method allows fulfilling ranking of alternative types of real estate use in dependence of their efficiency. The method was applied for one of the land parcels located on Primorsky district in Saint Petersburg.

  5. Enhancing an adaptive e-learning system with didactic test assessment using an expert system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradáč, Vladimír; Kostolányová, Kateřina

    2017-07-01

    The paper deals with a follow-up research on intelligent tutoring systems that were studied in authors' previous papers from the point of view of describing their advantages. In this paper, the authors make use of the fuzzy logic expert system, which assesses student's knowledge, and integrate it into the intelligent tutoring system called Barborka. The goal is to create an even more personal student's study plan, which is tailored both to student's sensory/learning preferences and the level of knowledge of the given subject.

  6. A Belief Rule Based Expert System to Assess Mental Disorder under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Afif Monrat, Ahmed; Hasan, Mamun

    2016-01-01

    to ignorance, incompleteness, and randomness. So, a belief rule-based expert system (BRBES) has been designed and developed with the capability of handling the uncertainties mentioned. Evidential reasoning works as the inference engine and the belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema......Mental disorder is a change of mental or behavioral pattern that causes sufferings and impairs the ability to function in ordinary life. In psychopathology, the assessment methods of mental disorder contain various types of uncertainties associated with signs and symptoms. This study identifies...

  7. Expert System Development for Urban Fire Hazard Assessment. Study Case: Kendari City, Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taridala, S.; Yudono, A.; Ramli, M. I.; Akil, A.

    2017-08-01

    Kendari City is a coastal urban region with the smallest area as well as the largest population in Southeast Sulawesi. Fires in Kendari City had rather frequently occurred and caused numerous material losses. This study aims to develop a model of urban fire risk and fire station site assessment. The model is developed using Expert Systems with the Geographic Information System (GIS). The high risk of fire area is the area which of high building density with combustible material, not crossed by arterial nor collector road. The fire station site should be appropriately close by high risk of fire area, located on arterial road and near with potential water resource.

  8. Uncertainties in environmental impact assessments due to expert opinion. Case study. Radioactive waste in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kontic, B.; Ravnik, M.

    1998-01-01

    A comprehensive study was done at the J. Stefan Institute in Ljubljana and the School of Environmental Sciences in Nova Gorica in relation to sources of uncertainties in long-term environmental impact assessment (EIA). Under the research two main components were examined: first, methodology of the preparation of an EIA, and second validity of an expert opinion. Following the findings of the research a survey was performed in relation to assessing acceptability of radioactive waste repository by the regulatory. The components of dose evaluation in different time frames were examined in terms of susceptibility to uncertainty. Uncertainty associated to human exposure in the far future is so large that dose and risk, as individual numerical indicators of safety, by our opinion, should not be used in compliance assessment for radioactive waste repository. On the other hand, results of the calculations on the amount and activity of low and intermediate level waste and the spent fuel from the Krsko NPP show that expert's understanding of the treated questions can be expressed in transparent way giving credible output of the models used.(author)

  9. Expert Assessment of Conditions for Accredited Quality Management System Functioning in Testing Laboratories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mytych, Joanna; Ligarski, Mariusz J.

    2018-03-01

    The quality management systems compliant with the ISO 9001:2009 have been thoroughly researched and described in detail in the world literature. The accredited management systems used in the testing laboratories and compliant with the ISO/IEC 17025:2005 have been mainly described in terms of the system design and implementation. They have also been investigated from the analytical point of view. Unfortunately, a low number of studies concerned the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories. The aim of following study was to assess the management system functioning in the accredited testing laboratories in Poland. On 8 October 2015, 1,213 accredited testing laboratories were present in Poland. They investigated various scientific areas and substances/objects. There are more and more such laboratories that have various problems and different long-term experience when it comes to the implementation, maintenance and improvement of the management systems. The article describes the results of the conducted expert assessment (survey) carried out to examine the conditions for the functioning of a management system in an accredited laboratory. It also focuses on the characteristics of the accredited research laboratories in Poland. The authors discuss the selection of the external and internal conditions that may affect the accredited management system. They show how the experts assessing the selected conditions were chosen. The survey results are also presented.

  10. Structural capacity assessment of machine-building enterprises and associations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prilutskay Maria

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Multidirectional tendencies of machine-building enterprises integration and disintegration resulted in the emergence of the formal and informal associations. These associations consist of the obviously and/or implicitly affiliated legal entities. Thus, a new element appears in the direct enterprise environment, i.e a management company or a head enterprise. The management company influences the participants even in an informal association. New environment restrictions led to the changes in the management structure. The paper considers the enterprise structures interrelation: organizational, financial, production, resource, and others. The authors draw a conclusion that the structures are hierarchy, and there are the coherence structures assessment criteria. The coordinated structures form the structural capacity of the enterprise. The suggested assessment coherence criteria (for example resource and functional structures allow estimating the structural potential and defining the directions of the enterprise efficiency increase.

  11. Image-based teleconsultation using smartphones or tablets: qualitative assessment of medical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boissin, Constance; Blom, Lisa; Wallis, Lee; Laflamme, Lucie

    2017-02-01

    Mobile health has promising potential in improving healthcare delivery by facilitating access to expert advice. Enabling experts to review images on their smartphone or tablet may save valuable time. This study aims at assessing whether images viewed by medical specialists on handheld devices such as smartphones and tablets are perceived to be of comparable quality as when viewed on a computer screen. This was a prospective study comparing the perceived quality of 18 images on three different display devices (smartphone, tablet and computer) by 27 participants (4 burn surgeons and 23 emergency medicine specialists). The images, presented in random order, covered clinical (dermatological conditions, burns, ECGs and X-rays) and non-clinical subjects and their perceived quality was assessed using a 7-point Likert scale. Differences in devices' quality ratings were analysed using linear regression models for clustered data adjusting for image type and participants' characteristics (age, gender and medical specialty). Overall, the images were rated good or very good in most instances and more so for the smartphone (83.1%, mean score 5.7) and tablet (78.2%, mean 5.5) than for a standard computer (70.6%, mean 5.2). Both handheld devices had significantly higher ratings than the computer screen, even after controlling for image type and participants' characteristics. Nearly all experts expressed that they would be comfortable using smartphones (n=25) or tablets (n=26) for image-based teleconsultation. This study suggests that handheld devices could be a substitute for computer screens for teleconsultation by physicians working in emergency settings. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  12. Recommendations for ICT use in Alzheimer's disease assessment: Monaco CTAD Expert Meeting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, P H; Konig, A; Andrieu, S; Bremond, F; Chemin, I; Chung, P C; Dartigues, J F; Dubois, B; Feutren, G; Guillemaud, R; Kenisberg, P A; Nave, S; Vellas, B; Verhey, F; Yesavage, J; Mallea, P

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer disease (AD) and other related dementia represent a major challenge for health care systems within the aging population. It is therefore important to develop better instruments for assessing disease severity and disease progression to optimize patient's care and support to care providers, and also provide better tools for clinical research. In this area, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) are of particular interest. Such techniques enable accurate and standardized assessments of patients' performance and actions in real time and real life situations. The aim of this article is to provide basic recommendation concerning the development and the use of ICT for Alzheimer's disease and related disorders. During he ICT and Mental Health workshop (CTAD meeting held in Monaco on the 30th October 2012) an expert panel was set up to prepare the first recommendations for the use of ICT in dementia research. The expert panel included geriatrician, epidemiologist, neurologist, psychiatrist, psychologist, ICT engineers, representatives from the industry and patient association. The recommendations are divided into three sections corresponding to 1/ the clinical targets of interest for the use of ICT, 2/ the conditions, the type of sensors and the outputs (scores) that could be used and obtained, 3/ finally the last section concerns specifically the use of ICT within clinical trials.

  13. The development and pilot testing of a rapid assessment tool to improve local public health system capacity in Australia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Vivian

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To operate effectively the public health system requires infrastructure and the capacity to act. Public health's ability to attract funding for infrastructure and capacity development would be enhanced if it was able to demonstrate what level of capacity was required to ensure a high performing system. Australia's public health activities are undertaken within a complex organizational framework that involves three levels of government and a diverse range of other organizations. The question of appropriate levels of infrastructure and capacity is critical at each level. Comparatively little is known about infrastructure and capacity at the local level. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers in two Australian states with different frameworks for health administration. They were asked to reflect on the critical components of infrastructure and capacity required at the local level. The interviews were analyzed to identify the major themes. Workshops with public health experts explored this data further. The information generated was used to develop a tool, designed to be used by groups of organizations within discrete geographical locations to assess local public health capacity. Results Local actors in these two different systems pointed to similar areas for inclusion for the development of an instrument to map public health capacity at the local level. The tool asks respondents to consider resources, programs and the cultural environment within their organization. It also asks about the policy environment - recognizing that the broader environment within which organizations operate impacts on their capacity to act. Pilot testing of the tool pointed to some of the challenges involved in such an exercise, particularly if the tool were to be adopted as policy. Conclusion This research indicates that it is possible to develop a tool for the systematic assessment of public health capacity at the local level

  14. The development and pilot testing of a rapid assessment tool to improve local public health system capacity in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagley, Prue; Lin, Vivian

    2009-11-15

    To operate effectively the public health system requires infrastructure and the capacity to act. Public health's ability to attract funding for infrastructure and capacity development would be enhanced if it was able to demonstrate what level of capacity was required to ensure a high performing system. Australia's public health activities are undertaken within a complex organizational framework that involves three levels of government and a diverse range of other organizations. The question of appropriate levels of infrastructure and capacity is critical at each level. Comparatively little is known about infrastructure and capacity at the local level. In-depth interviews were conducted with senior managers in two Australian states with different frameworks for health administration. They were asked to reflect on the critical components of infrastructure and capacity required at the local level. The interviews were analyzed to identify the major themes. Workshops with public health experts explored this data further. The information generated was used to develop a tool, designed to be used by groups of organizations within discrete geographical locations to assess local public health capacity. Local actors in these two different systems pointed to similar areas for inclusion for the development of an instrument to map public health capacity at the local level. The tool asks respondents to consider resources, programs and the cultural environment within their organization. It also asks about the policy environment - recognizing that the broader environment within which organizations operate impacts on their capacity to act. Pilot testing of the tool pointed to some of the challenges involved in such an exercise, particularly if the tool were to be adopted as policy. This research indicates that it is possible to develop a tool for the systematic assessment of public health capacity at the local level. Piloting the tool revealed some concerns amongst participants

  15. Assessing Community Leadership: Understanding Community Capacity for Health Improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castle, Billie; Wendel, Monica; Kelly Pryor, Brandy N; Ingram, Monique

    The purpose of this study was to pilot a quantitative instrument to measure aspects of community leadership within an assessment framework. The instrument includes 14 Likert-type questions asking residents how they perceive leaders within 5 sectors: Louisville Metro Council/Mayor's Office, the faith community, education, business, and the civic sector. Louisville/Jefferson County, Kentucky, has a population of about 743 000 residents. Respondents were asked to examine leadership within West Louisville, an economically deprived area of the city made up of 9 contiguous neighborhoods. This area is predominantly African American (78% compared with 22% in Louisville Metro), with an overall poverty rate of 43% (compared with 18% in Louisville Metro), and unemployment rate of 23% (compared with 8% in Louisville Metro). Residents of West Louisville are looking to leadership to address many of the inequities. Twenty-seven participants representing 7 community sectors completed the survey, of whom 90% work in West Louisville. The instrument measured local perceptions of leadership strength, effectiveness, trust, communication, community building, and leadership development. The majority of respondents agree that strong leadership exists across the 5 sectors, with variation regarding perceptions of the quality of that leadership. City leadership within the Mayor's Office and Metro Council is largely viewed positively, while the growing tensions within the education sector were reflected in the survey results. The perception of community leadership is important to understanding local community capacity to improve health and also inclusivity of community voice in the assessment and community improvement processes. Results from such assessments can offer useful information for strengthening community capacity and sustaining relationships needed to enact progressive and equitable solutions to address local issues. Leaders in a variety of settings can utilize this instrument to

  16. Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Anum, Solomon; Phillips, Emily C.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and

  17. CONSTRUCTION INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF HUMAN POTENTIAL HIGH SCHOOL ON THE BASIS OF EXPERT DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitriy N. Krymzin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In article offers the hierarchical system of creation the integrated indicator of personnel capacity in the higher educationinstitution, based on value judgment ofteachers. The integrated assessment of level of personnel potential is constructedon the basis of formation of a large gradation number, characterizing such system indicators, as personnel structure, reproduction of scientific and scientific and pedagogical shots and productivity ofresearch and educational and methodical activity of personnel structure.

  18. Expert validation of a teamwork assessment rubric: A modified Delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parratt, Jenny A; Fahy, Kathleen M; Hutchinson, Marie; Lohmann, Gui; Hastie, Carolyn R; Chaseling, Marilyn; O'Brien, Kylie

    2016-01-01

    Teamwork is a 'soft skill' employability competence desired by employers. Poor teamwork skills in healthcare have an impact on adverse outcomes. Teamwork skills are rarely the focus of teaching and assessment in undergraduate courses. The TeamUP Rubric is a tool used to teach and evaluate undergraduate students' teamwork skills. Students also use the rubric to give anonymised peer feedback during team-based academic assignments. The rubric's five domains focus on planning, environment, facilitation, conflict management and individual contribution; each domain is grounded in relevant theory. Students earn marks for their teamwork skills; validity of the assessment rubric is critical. To what extent do experts agree that the TeamUP Rubric is a valid assessment of 'teamwork skills'? Modified Delphi technique incorporating Feminist Collaborative Conversations. A heterogeneous panel of 35 professionals with recognised expertise in communications and/or teamwork. Three Delphi rounds using a survey that included the rubric were conducted either face-to-face, by telephone or online. Quantitative analysis yielded item content validity indices (I-CVI); minimum consensus was pre-set at 70%. An average of the I-CVI also yielded sub-scale (domain) (D-CVI/Ave) and scale content validity indices (S-CVI/Ave). After each Delphi round, qualitative data were analysed and interpreted; Feminist Collaborative Conversations by the research team aimed to clarify and confirm consensus about the wording of items on the rubric. Consensus (at 70%) was obtained for all but one behavioural descriptor of the rubric. We modified that descriptor to address expert concerns. The TeamUP Rubric (Version 4) can be considered to be well validated at that level of consensus. The final rubric reflects underpinning theory, with no areas of conceptual overlap between rubric domains. The final TeamUP Rubric arising from this study validly measures individual student teamwork skills and can be used with

  19. Expert panels as a reference standard in orthodontic research: An assessment of published methods and reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lempesi, Evangelia; Toulia, Electra; Pandis, Nikolaos

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study was to investigate the expert panel methodology applied in orthodontics and its reporting quality. Additionally, the relationship between the reporting quality and a range of variables was explored. PubMed was searched for orthodontic studies in which the final diagnosis or assessment was made by 2 or more experts published up to March 16, 2015. Reporting quality assessment was conducted using an established modified checklist. The relationship between potential predictors and the total score was assessed using univariable linear regression. We identified 237 studies with a mean score of 9.97 (SD, 1.12) out of a maximum of 15. Critical information about panel methodology was missing in all studies. The panel composition differed substantially across studies, ranging from 2 to 646 panel members, with large variations in the expertise represented. Only 17 studies (7.2%) reported sample size calculations to justify the panel size. Panel members were partly blinded in 65 (27.4%) studies. Most studies failed to report which statistic was used to compute intrarater (65.8%) and interrater (66.2%) agreements. Journal type (nonorthodontic: β, 0.23; 95% CI, -0.07 to 0.54 compared with orthodontic), publication year (β, 0; 95% CI, -0.02 to 0.02 for each additional year), number of authors (1-3: β, 0.30; 95% CI, -0.13 to 0.74 compared with at least 6; 4-5: β, 0.18; 95% CI, -0.29 to 0.33 compared with at least 6), and number of centers involved (single: β, 0.20; 95% CI, -0.14 to 0.54 compared with multicenter) were not significant predictors of improved reporting. Studies published in Asia and Australia had significantly lower scores compared with those published in Europe (β, -0.54; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.17). Formal guidelines on methodology and reporting of studies involving expert panels are required. Copyright © 2016 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Proposal of a system of indicators to assess the training of experts in a high-tech organization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elías Hardy, Lidia Lauren; González Olaguive, Elizabeth Vicenta; Martínez Martínez, Elisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: present a proposal of a system of indicators to assess actions aimed at the training and development of experts in a high-tech organization. Methods: an analysis was conducted of the various theories dealing with the training and development of experts, examining their features and components. Design of the system of indicators was based on surveys and direct observation. The system of indicators thus designed was validated with the Delphi method, the application of the Likert scale and the statistical treatment of answers provided by experts, using median and interquartile range values to establish the consensus of experts. Results: a working definition is proposed of the concept expert based on two dimensions: qualification and performance, and individual and collective variables, indicators and measurement criteria. Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0,8655) showed the internal consistency of the tool used. The median and interquartile range values obtained made it possible to establish the consensus of participants in the validation of the system of indicators. Conclusions: the system of indicators developed and its two dimensions make it possible to assess the training and development of experts at the Cuban Neuroscience Center, as well as the system of actions performed. The indicator showing the lowest results is that of productivity of experts in the training of human resources of high academic level. (author)

  1. Critical Thinking Theory to Practice: Using the Expert's Thought Process as Guide for Learning and Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Teresa A; Marchini, Leonardo; Cowen, Howard; Hartshorn, Jennifer E; Holloway, Julie A; Straub-Morarend, Cheryl L; Gratton, David; Solow, Catherine M; Colangelo, Nicholas; Johnsen, David C

    2017-08-01

    Critical thinking skills are essential for the successful dentist, yet few explicit skillsets in critical thinking have been developed and published in peer-reviewed literature. The aims of this article are to 1) offer an assessable critical thinking teaching model with the expert's thought process as the outcome, learning guide, and assessment instrument and 2) offer three critical thinking skillsets following this model: for geriatric risk assessment, technology decision making, and situation analysis/reflections. For the objective component, the student demonstrates delivery of each step in the thought process. For the subjective component, the student is judged to have grasped the principles as applied to the patient or case. This article describes the framework and the results of pilot tests in which students in one year at this school used the model in the three areas, earning scores of 90% or above on the assessments. The model was thus judged to be successful for students to demonstrate critical thinking skillsets in the course settings. Students consistently delivered each step of the thought process and were nearly as consistent in grasping the principles behind each step. As more critical thinking skillsets are implemented, a reinforcing network develops.

  2. Health Economics of Dengue: A Systematic Literature Review and Expert Panel's Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beatty, Mark E.; Beutels, Philippe; Meltzer, Martin I.; Shepard, Donald S.; Hombach, Joachim; Hutubessy, Raymond; Dessis, Damien; Coudeville, Laurent; Dervaux, Benoit; Wichmann, Ole; Margolis, Harold S.; Kuritsky, Joel N.

    2011-01-01

    Dengue vaccines are currently in development and policymakers need appropriate economic studies to determine their potential financial and public health impact. We searched five databases (PubMed, EMBASE, LILAC, EconLit, and WHOLIS) to identify health economics studies of dengue. Forty-three manuscripts were identified that provided primary data: 32 report economic burden of dengue and nine are comparative economic analyses assessing various interventions. The remaining two were a willingness-to-pay study and a policymaker survey. An expert panel reviewed the existing dengue economic literature and recommended future research to fill information gaps. Although dengue is an important vector-borne disease, the economic literature is relatively sparse and results have often been conflicting because of use of inconsistent assumptions. Health economic research specific to dengue is urgently needed to ensure informed decision making on the various options for controlling and preventing this disease. PMID:21363989

  3. Integrating Expert Knowledge with Statistical Analysis for Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at Regional Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christos Chalkias

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, an integration landslide susceptibility model by combining expert-based and bivariate statistical analysis (Landslide Susceptibility Index—LSI approaches is presented. Factors related with the occurrence of landslides—such as elevation, slope angle, slope aspect, lithology, land cover, Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP and Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA—were analyzed within a GIS environment. This integrated model produced a landslide susceptibility map which categorized the study area according to the probability level of landslide occurrence. The accuracy of the final map was evaluated by Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC analysis depending on an independent (validation dataset of landslide events. The prediction ability was found to be 76% revealing that the integration of statistical analysis with human expertise can provide an acceptable landslide susceptibility assessment at regional scale.

  4. Assessment of geomechanical properties, maximum depth and excavation damaged zone aspects - Expert report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amann, F.; Löw, S.; Perras, M.

    2015-11-01

    This comprehensive report published by the Swiss National Nuclear Safety Inspectorate ENSI discusses the expert report published on the need for the assessment of geomechanical properties and maximum depth of repositories for high, medium and low-activity nuclear wastes. Also, aspects concerning excavation damaged zones (EDZ) are considered. These are all criteria for the selection of sites as part of Phase 2 of the Swiss waste disposal project. Four questions are examined: are NAGRA’s documented basic considerations and calculations on Opalinus Clay comprehensive enough and correct, are the calculations on maximum depth correct, are the proposed storage perimeters correct with respect to depth and will NAGRA be able to take possible excavation damaged zones (EDZ) into account? Literature and references concerning the subject are quoted

  5. Establishing Self-Assessment Mechanisms and Capacities (INIR Approach)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-08-01

    The Regional National Nuclear Power Infrastructure Evaluation Workshop on Establishing Self-Assessment Mechanisms and Capacities (INIR Approach) Covers Milestones 1 and 2, which can be carried out at any point to review progress and addresses each of the 19 infrastructure issues. For each condition, identifies the evidence that will show it has been met and Seek to avoid duplication as much as possible. The following elements should be contained in an Evaluation Report, as a minimum: Identification of the “Evaluators' Team” by position/role; Identification of the “Team of Respondents”; A description of the process used to conduct the evaluation; Lists of the evidence reviewed and further actions required; Summary of conclusions giving the status of achievement of each condition; References to any relevant material used for conducting the evaluation and Confidentiality requirements. Main Steps for a Complete Self-Assessment include- Organization and management, Evaluate the status of development of the infrastructure against the basis listed in the Roadmap / White Paper / Milestone Document, Identify synergies between all Organizations involved, Identify areas needing further attention, Preparing an action plan to address these areas and If needed, identify IAEA / Multilateral / Bilateral supports. Evaluation steps include Determine the scope and terms of reference, strongly recommended that all 19 issues are covered, Identify the organizations to be involved, the individuals who will conduct the evaluation; Evaluate the status of the infrastructure against the basis listed

  6. Capacities for the Risk Assessment of GMOs: Challenges to Build Sustainable Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danilo Fernández Ríos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The need for functional risk assessment bodies in general, and in the biosafety field in particular, demands continued efforts and commitment from regulatory agencies, if results that are sustainable in time are to be achieved. The lack of formal processes that ensure continuity in the application of state of the art scientific criteria, the high rotation in some cases or the lack of experienced professionals, in others, is a challenge to be addressed. Capacity building initiatives with different approaches and degrees of success have been implemented in many countries over the years, supported by diverse governmental and non-governmental organizations. This document summarizes some capacity building experiences in developing countries and concludes that risk assessors taking ownership and regulatory authorities fully committed to developing and retaining highly qualified bodies are a sine qua non to achieve sustainable systems. To this end, it is essential to implement “in-house” continuing education mechanisms supported by external experts and organizations, and inter-institutional cooperation. It has to be noted that these recommendations could only be realized if policy makers understand and appreciate the value of professional, independent regulatory bodies.

  7. Capacities for the Risk Assessment of GMOs: Challenges to Build Sustainable Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández Ríos, Danilo; Rubinstein, Clara; Vicién, Carmen

    2018-01-01

    The need for functional risk assessment bodies in general, and in the biosafety field in particular, demands continued efforts and commitment from regulatory agencies, if results that are sustainable in time are to be achieved. The lack of formal processes that ensure continuity in the application of state of the art scientific criteria, the high rotation in some cases or the lack of experienced professionals, in others, is a challenge to be addressed. Capacity building initiatives with different approaches and degrees of success have been implemented in many countries over the years, supported by diverse governmental and non-governmental organizations. This document summarizes some capacity building experiences in developing countries and concludes that risk assessors taking ownership and regulatory authorities fully committed to developing and retaining highly qualified bodies are a sine qua non to achieve sustainable systems. To this end, it is essential to implement "in-house" continuing education mechanisms supported by external experts and organizations, and inter-institutional cooperation. It has to be noted that these recommendations could only be realized if policy makers understand and appreciate the value of professional, independent regulatory bodies.

  8. Application of expert systems in damage assessment of reinforced concrete structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fazel Zarandi, M. H.; Sobhani, J.

    2003-01-01

    Expert systems are receiving great attentions in construction industry to support decision making processes in diagnostics, design, repair and rehabilitation of the structures. Although several expert systems have been examined in engineering since the 1970's, their applications in construction industry are rate. This was largely due to the lack of expert system tools available to represent the domain knowledge. Lack of flexibility, applicability, and robustness of the classical models, have forced the scientists to discover the ability of the expert systems in problem solving of civil engineering. This paper present an expert system for diagnosis the deterioration of concrete structures. This expert system emphasizes on cracking distress in reinforced concrete elements. A case study has been presented to examine and evaluate the proposed expert system. The system demonstrates a straightforward method for diagnosing the cause of reinforced concrete elements cracking

  9. The impact of expert knowledge on natural hazard susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karlsson, Caroline; Kalantari, Zahra; Mörtberg, Ulla; Olofsson, Bo; Lyon, Steve

    2016-04-01

    Road and railway networks are one of the key factors to a country's economic growth. Inadequate infrastructural networks could be detrimental to a society if the transport between locations are hindered or delayed. Logistical hindrances can often be avoided whereas natural hindrances are more difficult to control. One natural hindrance that can have a severe adverse effect on both infrastructure and society is flooding. Intense and heavy rainfall events can trigger other natural hazards such as landslides and debris flow. Disruptions caused by landslides are similar to that of floods and increase the maintenance cost considerably. The effect on society by natural disasters is likely to increase due to a changed climate with increasing precipitation. Therefore, there is a need for risk prevention and mitigation of natural hazards. Determining susceptible areas and incorporating them in the decision process may reduce the infrastructural harm. Spatial multi-criteria analysis (SMCA) is a part of decision analysis, which provides a set of procedures for analysing complex decision problems through a Geographic Information System (GIS). The objective and aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of expert judgements for inundation, landslide and debris flow susceptibility assessments through a SMCA approach using hydrological, geological and land use factors. The sensitivity of the SMCA model was tested in relation to each perspective and impact on the resulting susceptibility. A least cost path function was used to compare new alternative road lines with the existing ones. This comparison was undertaken to identify the resulting differences in the susceptibility assessments using expert judgements as well as historic incidences of flooding and landslides in order to discuss the usefulness of the model in road planning.

  10. Quantitative risk assessment using the capacity-demand analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morgenroth, M.; Donnelly, C.R.; Westermann, G.D.; Huang, J.H.S.; Lam, T.M.

    1999-01-01

    The hydroelectric industry's recognition of the importance of avoiding unexpected failure, or forced outages, led to the development of probabilistic, or risk-based, methods in order to attempt to quantify exposures. Traditionally, such analysis has been carried out by qualitative assessments, relying on experience and sound engineering judgment to determine the optimum time to maintain, repair or replace a part or system. Depending on the nature of the problem, however, and the level of experience of those included in the decision making process, it is difficult to find a balance between acting proactively and accepting some amount of risk. The development of a practical means for establishing the probability of failure of any part or system, based on the determination of the statistical distribution of engineering properties such as acting stresses, is discussed. The capacity-demand analysis methodology, coupled with probablistic, risk-based analysis, permits all the factors associated with a decision to rehabilitate or replace a part, including the risks associated with the timing of the decision, to be assessed in a transparent and defendable manner. The methodology does not eliminate judgment altogether, but does move it from the level of estimating the risk of failure to the lower level of estimating variability in material properties, uncertainty in loading, and the uncertainties inherent in any engineering analysis. The method was successfully used in 1998 to carry out a comprehensive, economic risk analysis for the entire water conveyance system of a 90 year old hydropower station. The analysis included a number of diverse parts ranging from rock slopes and aging steel and concrete conduits, and the method allowed a rational assessment of the risks associated with reach of these varied parts to be determined, permitting the essential remedial works to be prioritized. 14 refs., 4 figs

  11. Transmission capacity assessment by probabilistic planning. An approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lammintausta, M.

    2002-01-01

    The Finnish electricity markets participate in the Scandinavian markets, Nord-Pool. The Finnish market is free for marketers, producers and consumers. All these participants can be seen as customers of the transmission network, which in turn can be considered to be a market place in which electricity can be sold and bought. The Finnish transmission network is owned and operated by an independent company, Fingrid that has the full responsibility of the Finnish transmission system. The available transfer capacity of a transmission route is traditionally limited by deterministic security constraints. More efficient and flexible network utilisation could be achieved with probabilistic planning methods. This report introduces a simple and practical probabilistic approach for transfer limit and risk assessment. The method is based on the economical benefit and risk predictions. It uses also the existing results of deterministic data and it could be used side by side with the deterministic method. The basic concept and necessary equations for expected risks of various market players have been derived for further developments. The outage costs and thereby the risks of the market participants depend on how the system operator reacts to the faults. In the Finnish power system consumers will usually experience no costs due to the faults because of meshed network and counter trade method preferred by the system operator. The costs to the producers and dealers are also low because of the counter trade method. The network company will lose the cost of reparation, additional losses and cost of regulation power because of counter trades. In case power flows will be rearranged drastically because of aggressive strategies used in the electricity markets, the only way to fulfil the needs of free markets is that the network operator buys regulation power for short-term problems and reinforces the network in the long-term situations. The reinforcement is done if the network can not be

  12. Radioactive waste management: the contribution of expert assessments to the implementation of safe management channels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besnus, F.; Jouve, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    The national Radioactive Materials and Waste Management (PNGMDR) sets objectives and defines waste management channels for all radioactive wastes produced in France. Within this framework, IRSN (Institute for Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety) expertise aims at assessing the consistency and robustness of the technical solutions set in place by the plan. As a result of this assessment, the main safety issues and priorities for upgrading the safety of the various facilities that will receive and treat waste are identified on the one hand, while possible foreseen weaknesses in terms of storage or treatment capacities are put into light on the other hand. To carry out such assessment, IRSN backs on its 'in depth' knowledge of facilities, acquired through the examination of each major step of waste management facility life (creation, commissioning, re-examination of safety...). This knowledge feeds in turn the examination of the waste management strategies implemented by operators. In addition, special attention is given to the achievement of waste packages of favourable properties as well as to the conditions for their safe disposal, since these two aspects are most often key factors for optimizing the safety of the whole management channel. By its capacity to overlook all steps of waste management channels, from production to final disposal, IRSN intends to contribute to the objective of enhancing the global safety of the management of radioactive waste. (authors)

  13. Iranian Expert Opinion about Necessary Criteria for Hospitals Management Performance Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elham Dadgar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Managers in the hospital should have enough managerial skill to be coordinated with the complex environment. Defining a competency framework assessment for hospital man-agement will help to establish core competencies for hospital managers. The aim of this study was to develop concrete and suitable performance assessment criteria using expert's view.Methods: In this qualitative study in total, 20 professionals participated in the interview and Fo-cus Group Discussions (FGD. Two of informants were interviewed and 18 professionals par-ticipants in three focus group discussions. Discussions and interviews were well planned, the FGD environments were suitable and after interviews completion the notes were checked with participant for completeness. Thematic analysis method was used for the analysis of qualitative data.Results: Findings from 3 FGDs and 2 semi structured interviews done with 20 professionals were categorized accordance to themes. The findings were classified in 7 major and 41 sub themes. The major themes include competency related to planning, organization and staff per-formance management, leadership, information management, and clinical governance and per-formance indicators.Conclusion: All participants had hospital administration experience; so their explanation impor-tant in identifying the criteria and developing hospital managers’ performance assessment tool. In addition to professional perspectives and studies done in other countries, in order to design this kind of tools, it is necessary to adopt the obtained findings to the local hospital conditions.

  14. The value of quantitative methods for assessment of renal transplant and comparison with physician expertness

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Firouzi, F.; Fazeli, M.

    2002-01-01

    Radionuclide renal diagnostic studies play an important role in assessing renal allograft. Various quantitative parameters have been derived from the Radionuclide renogram to facilitate and confirm the changes in perfusion and/or function of kidney allograft. These quantitative methods were divided into parameters used for assessing renal graft perfusion and parameters used for evaluating parenchymal function. The blood flow in renal transplants can be quantified by measuring the rate of activity appearance in the kidney graft and the ratio of the integral activity under the transplanted kidney and arterial curves e.g. Hilton's perfusion index and Karachi's kidney/aortic ratio. Quantitative evaluation of graft extraction and excretion was assessed by parameters derived from 123 I/ 131 I-OH, 99 mTc-DTPA or 99 mTc-Mag renogram. In this study we review retrospectively renal transplanted patients scintigraphies that all of them under gone to renal allograft needle biopsy nearly to date of allograft scan. We performed quantitative methods for all patients. We observed perfusion parameters affected by quality of bolus injection and numerical aviations related to changes in the site and size of region of interest. Quantitative methods for renal parenchymal functions were nonspecific and far from defining a specific cause of graft dysfunction. In conclusion, neither perfusion nor parenchymal parameters have not enough diagnostic power for specific diagnosis of graft dysfunction. Physician expertness by using scintigraphic images and renogram curves is more sensitive and specific for diagnosis of renal allograft dysfunction

  15. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review Program-Expert Safety Assessments of Cosmetic Ingredients in an Open Forum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyer, Ivan J; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Heldreth, Bart; Fiume, Monice M; Gill, Lillian J

    The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) is a nonprofit program to assess the safety of ingredients in personal care products in an open, unbiased, and expert manner. Cosmetic Ingredient Review was established in 1976 by the Personal Care Products Council (PCPC), with the support of the US Food and Drug Administration (USFDA) and the Consumer Federation of America (CFA). Cosmetic Ingredient Review remains the only scientific program in the world committed to the systematic, independent review of cosmetic ingredient safety in a public forum. Cosmetic Ingredient Review operates in accordance with procedures modeled after the USFDA process for reviewing over-the-counter drugs. Nine voting panel members are distinguished, such as medical professionals, scientists, and professors. Three nonvoting liaisons are designated by the USFDA, CFA, and PCPC to represent government, consumer, and industry, respectively. The annual rate of completing safety assessments accelerated from about 100 to more than 400 ingredients by implementing grouping and read-across strategies and other approaches. As of March 2017, CIR had reviewed 4,740 individual cosmetic ingredients, including 4,611 determined to be safe as used or safe with qualifications, 12 determined to be unsafe, and 117 ingredients for which the information is insufficient to determine safety. Examples of especially challenging safety assessments and issues are presented here, including botanicals. Cosmetic Ingredient Review continues to strengthen its program with the ongoing cooperation of the USFDA, CFA, the cosmetics industry, and everyone else interested in contributing to the process.

  16. Environment and health. Realistic risk assessment. Special expert opinion; Umwelt und Gesundheit. Risiken richtig einschaetzen. Sondergutachten

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1999-12-01

    In this special expert opinion, the Environmental Council discusses the problem of how to assess the risk of environment-induced health hazards. In many cases, there is a discrepancy between scientific risk assessment and subjective risk perception of the exposed population in this context. The Environmental Council suggests that communication between all parties concerned should be improved by target-finding models and also proposes an integrative risk assessment procedure. It is particularly important to identify and characterize vulnerable groups by scientific methods. [German] In seinem Sondergutachten Umwelt und Gesundheit - Risiken richtig einschaetzen greift der Umweltrat die Problematik von Risikoabschaetzungen umweltbedingter Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen auf. In diesem Zusammenhang ist vielfach eine Diskrepanz zwischen wissenschaftlicher Risikoabschaetzung und der subjektiven Risikowahrnehmung seitens der Betroffenen festzustellen. Der Umweltrat verweist zur Verbesserung der Kommunikation zwischen den beteiligten Gruppen auf entsprechende Modelle zur Zielfindung und schlaegt einen integrativen Ansatz zur Risikobewertung vor. Von besonderer Bedeutung bei der Bewertung von umweltbedingten Gesundheitsbeeintraechtigungen ist die wissenschaftlich begruendete Identifizierung und Charakterisierung von empfindlichen Gruppen (vulnerablen Gruppen). (orig.)

  17. Assessment of adherence problems in patients with serious and persistent mental illness: recommendations from the Expert Consensus Guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velligan, Dawn I; Weiden, Peter J; Sajatovic, Martha; Scott, Jan; Carpenter, Daniel; Ross, Ruth; Docherty, John P

    2010-01-01

    Poor adherence to medication treatment can have devastating consequences for patients with serious mental illness. The literature review and recommendations in this article concerning assessment of adherence are reprinted from The Expert Consensus Guideline Series: Adherence Problems in Patients with Serious and Persistent Mental Illness, published in 2009. The expert consensus survey contained 39 questions (521 options) that asked about defining nonadherence, extent of adherence problems in schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, risk factors for nonadherence, assessment methods, and interventions for specific types of adherence problems. The survey was completed by 41 (85%) of the 48 experts to whom it was sent. When evaluating adherence, the experts considered it important to assess both behavior and attitude, although they considered actual behavior most important. They also noted the importance of distinguishing patients who are not willing to take medication from those who are willing but not able to take their medication as prescribed due to forgetfulness, misunderstanding of instructions, or financial or environmental problems, since this will affect the type of intervention needed. Although self- and physician report are most commonly used to clinically assess adherence, they are often inaccurate and may underestimate nonadherence. The experts believe that more accurate information will be obtained by asking about any problems patients are having or anticipate having taking medication rather than if they have been taking their medication; They also recommended speaking with family or caregivers, if the patient gives permission, as well as using more objective measures (e.g., pill counts, pharmacy records, smart pill containers if available, and, when appropriate, medication plasma levels). Use of a validated self-report scale may also help improve accuracy. For patients who appear adherent to medication, the experts recommended monthly assessments for

  18. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-08-14

    As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioeconomic vulnerabilities to dengue fever in Cali, a tropical urban environment of Colombia. Based on a set of socioeconomic and demographic indicators derived from census data and ancillary geospatial datasets, we develop a spatial approach for both expert-based and purely statistical-based modeling of current vulnerability levels across 340 neighborhoods of the city using a Geographic Information System (GIS). The results of both approaches are comparatively evaluated by means of spatial statistics. A web-based approach is proposed to facilitate the visualization and the dissemination of the output vulnerability index to the community. The statistical and the expert-based modeling approach exhibit a high concordance, globally, and spatially. The expert-based approach indicates a slightly higher vulnerability mean (0.53) and vulnerability median (0.56) across all neighborhoods, compared to the purely statistical approach (mean = 0.48; median = 0.49). Both approaches reveal that high values of vulnerability tend to cluster in the eastern, north-eastern, and western part of the city. These are poor neighborhoods with high percentages of young (i.e., local expertise, statistical approaches could be used, with caution. By decomposing identified vulnerability "hotspots" into their underlying factors, our approach provides valuable information on both (1) the location of neighborhoods, and (2) vulnerability factors that should be given priority in the context of targeted intervention

  19. Expert assessment of the resilience of drinking water and sanitation systems to climate-related hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luh, Jeanne; Royster, Sarah; Sebastian, Daniel; Ojomo, Edema; Bartram, Jamie

    2017-08-15

    We conducted an expert assessment to obtain expert opinions on the relative global resilience of ten drinking water and five sanitation technologies to the following six climate-related hazards: drought, decreased inter-annual precipitation, flood, superstorm flood, wind damage, and saline intrusion. Resilience scores ranged from 1.7 to 9.9 out of a maximum resilience of 10, with high scores corresponding to high resilience. We find that for some climate-related hazards, such as drought, technologies demonstrated a large range in resilience, indicating that the choice of water and sanitation technologies is important for areas prone to drought. On the other hand, the range of resilience scores for superstorm flooding was much smaller, particularly for sanitation technologies, suggesting that the choice of technology is less of a determinant of functionality for superstorm flooding as compared to other climate-related hazards. For drinking water technologies, only treated piped utility-managed systems that use surface water had resilience scores >6.0 for all hazards, while protected dug wells were found to be one of the least resilient technologies, consistently scoring <5.0 for all hazards except wind damage. In general, sanitation technologies were found to have low to medium resilience, suggesting that sanitation systems need to be adapted to ensure functionality during and after climate-related hazards. The results of the study can be used to help communities decide which technologies are best suited for the climate-related challenges they face and help in future adaptation planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. IAEA expert review mission completes assessment of fuel cleaning incident at Paks Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The IAEA today completed its expert review mission to investigate the 10 April fuel cleaning incident at the Paks nuclear power plant in Hungary. The mission was requested by the Hungarian Government to provide an independent assessment of the causes and actions taken by the plant and Hungarian authorities. The team was composed of nuclear and radiation experts from the IAEA, Austria, Canada, Finland, Slovakia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In a press conference, team leader Miroslav Lipar highlighted the team's findings in five areas: On management, the team concluded that the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority and Paks are committed to improving the safety of the plant. They noted that as a result of steam generator decontamination in previous years, deposits became attached to the fuel assemblies. A decision was made to clean the fuel and contract an outside company to develop and operate a fuel cleaning process. The team found that the design and operation of the fuel cleaning tank and system was not accomplished in the manner prescribed by the IAEA Safety Standards. Neither the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority nor Paks used conservative decision-making in their safety assessments for this unproven fuel cleaning system. The team determined that there was an over-reliance on the contractor that had been selected for the design, management and operation of the fuel cleaning system. Time pressure related to a prescribed fuel outage schedule, combined with confidence generated by previous successful fuel cleaning operations, contributed to a weak assessment of a new design and operation, which involved fuel directly removed from the reactor following a planned shutdown. On regulatory oversight, the IAEA team concluded that the Hungarian Atomic Energy Authority underestimated the safety significance of the proposed designs for the fuel cleaning system, which resulted in a less than rigorous review and assessment than should have been necessary

  1. A probabilistic risk assessment for field radiography based on expert judgment and opinion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jang, Han-Ki; Ryu, Hyung-Joon; Kim, Ji-Young; Lee, Jai-Ki; Cho, Kun-Woo

    2011-01-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied to assess radiation risk associated with the field radiography using gamma sources. The Delphi method based on the expert judgments and opinions was used in the process of characterization of parameters affecting risk, which are inevitably subject to large uncertainties. A mathematical approach applying the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. This process consists of three phases: (1) setting prior distributions, (2) constructing the likelihood functions and (3) deriving the posterior distributions based on the likelihood functions. The approach for characterizing input parameters using the Bayesian inference is provided for improved risk estimates without intentional rejection of part of the data, which demonstrated utility of Bayesian updating of distributions of uncertain input parameters in PRA (Probabilistic Risk Assessment). The data analysis portion for PRA in field radiography is addressed for estimates of the parameters used to determine the frequencies and consequences of the various events modeled. In this study, radiological risks for the worker and the public member in the vicinity of the work place are estimated for field radiography system in Korea based on two-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis (2D MCA). (author)

  2. Assessing geomorphic sensitivity in relation to river capacity for adjustment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, H. E.; Brierley, G. J.

    2015-12-01

    River sensitivity describes the nature and rate of channel adjustments. An approach to analysis of geomorphic river sensitivity outlined in this paper relates potential sensitivity based on the expected capacity of adjustment for a river type to the recent history of channel adjustment. This approach was trialled to assess low, moderate and high geomorphic sensitivity for four different types of river (10 reaches in total) along the Lower Tongariro River, North Island, New Zealand. Building upon the River Styles framework, river types were differentiated based upon valley setting (width and confinement), channel planform, geomorphic unit assemblages and bed material size. From this, the behavioural regime and potential for adjustment (type and extent) were determined. Historical maps and aerial photographs were geo-rectified and the channel planform digitised to assess channel adjustments for each reach from 1928 to 2007. Floodplain width controlled by terraces, exerted a strong influence upon reach scale sensitivity for the partly-confined, wandering, cobble-bed river. Although forced boundaries occur infrequently, the width of the active channel zone is constrained. An unconfined braided river reach directly downstream of the terrace-confined section was the most geomorphically sensitive reach. The channel in this reach adjusted recurrently to sediment inputs that were flushed through more confined, better connected upstream reaches. A meandering, sand-bed river in downstream reaches has exhibited negligible rates of channel migration. However, channel narrowing in this reach and the associated delta indicate that the system is approaching a threshold condition, beyond which channel avulsion is likely to occur. As this would trigger more rapid migration, this reach is considered to be more geomorphically sensitive than analysis of its low migration rate alone would indicate. This demonstrates how sensitivity is fashioned both by the behavioural regime of a reach

  3. The opinion of experts in the assessment of reliability in nuclear power plant operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akersten, P.A.; Wirstad, J.

    1983-06-01

    An inventory of methods used for quantifying of the opinion of experts for use in fault tree evaluations is presented. A number of different methods are evaluated and future research is recommended for three, namely 1. Saatys Analytical Hierarchy Process. 2. Embreys SLIM-method with variations. 3. Methods for feed-back from the expert group during evaluation.(authors)

  4. An Expert-Based Assessment Model for Evaluating Habitat Suitability of Pond-Breeding Amphibians

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shin-Ruoh Juang

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Farm ponds are important habitats for amphibians, birds, and other wildlife. In Taiwan, artificial ponds were originally created on farmlands for irrigation purposes and the needs of the domestic water supply. Although pond creation is a typical farming practice, it also provides habitats for pond-breeding amphibians. Thus, it is essential to understand the current status of habitats and their vulnerability regarding urgent conservation needs for target species. Günther’s frog (Hylarana guentheri, a pond-breeding amphibian, has a high sensitivity towards surrounding environmental changes, and can be used as an indicator species to assess habitat suitability. The purpose of this study is to establish a systematic framework to assess the habitat suitability of pond-breeding amphibians by using Günther’s frog as a pilot-study species. First, we collected frog survey data from Chiayi, Taiwan, from winter 2013 to spring 2015, and investigated the present status of the environmental conditions around the ponds. Next, expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method were applied to establish the hierarchical evaluation criteria regarding the habitat suitability assessment. Four indicators: the aquatic environments of farm ponds; the terrestrial environments around ponds; landscape connectivity; and the conservation perceptions of the residents, were determined as first-layer factors in the assessment criteria, while ten other indicators were defined as second-layer factors. Based on the established assessment criteria, we performed in situ habitat suitability evaluations on 69 selected sites and surveyed the perceptions of the residents using questionnaires. Results revealed that 19% of locations were rich in frog species with a high habitat suitability. However, 67% of locations showed signs of habitat degradation, which may imply a higher need in practicing habitat improvement or restoration. The Kappa value was 0.6061, which indicated a high

  5. How do experts define relevance criteria when initiating Health Impact Assessments of national policies?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kraemer, Stella Rj; Gulis, Gabriel

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this article is to present how the Danish Disease Prevention Committee (DDPC) members and HIA-experts understand when HIA is "relevant", which in this context means when there is "presumed to be a direct and documented effect on the health and morbidity of citizens". Method: DDPC members...... were interviewed face-to-face; HIA experts participated in an e-survey. Results: Six DDPC members were interviewed and 100 HIA-experts participated in a survey. The DDPC members consider direct as the link between determinants and the related risk factors. The HIA experts consider direct as the link...... between policy and the related risk factors. Both groups favour the use of scientific evidence according to the traditional biomedical evidence hierarchy but HIA-experts also judge that there is value in using evidence that can be considered weak such as local community knowledge. Conclusions: It is clear...

  6. Exploring harmonization between integrated assessment and capacity expansion models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, G.; Brown, M.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Patel, P.; Wise, M. A.; Horing, J.

    2017-12-01

    Forward-looking quantitative models of the electric sector are extensively used to provide science-based strategic decision support to national, international and private-sector entities. Given that these models are used to inform a wide-range of stakeholders and influence policy decisions, it is vital to examine how the models' underlying data and structure influence their outcomes. We conduct several experiments harmonizing key model characteristics between ReEDS—an electric sector only model, and GCAM—an integrated assessment model—to understand how different degrees of harmonization impact model outcomes. ReEDS has high spatial, temporal, and process detail but lacks electricity demand elasticity and endogenous representations of other economic sectors, while GCAM has internally consistent representations of energy (including the electric sector), agriculture, and land-use systems but relatively aggregate representations of the factors influencing electric sector investments . We vary the degree of harmonization in electricity demand, fuel prices, technology costs and performance, and variable renewable energy resource characteristics. We then identify the prominent sources of divergence in key outputs (electricity capacity, generation, and price) across the models and study how the convergence between models can be improved with permutations of harmonized characteristics. The remaining inconsistencies help to establish how differences in the models' underlying data, construction, perspective, and methodology play into each model's outcome. There are three broad contributions of this work. First, our study provides a framework to link models with similar scope but different resolutions. Second, our work provides insight into how the harmonization of assumptions contributes to a unified and robust portrayal of the US electricity sector under various potential futures. Finally, our study enhances the understanding of the influence of structural uncertainty

  7. Development and assessment of an Al expert system for the monitoring and diagnosis of nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeuchi, K.; Gagnon, A.; Cheung, A.C.; Meyer, P.E.

    1988-01-01

    Due to the rapid progress in microcomputer and software development, artificial intelligence (AI) expert systems of practical value can be built into microcomputers. An expert system for nuclear plant surveillance, diagnostics, and prognostics was developed using the Texas Instruments AI shell, Personal Consultant Plus (PC-plus) on an IBM PCAT. This expert system runs in a surveillance mode to find an abnormal operating condition. Once an abnormal behavior is found,it switches to a diagnostics mode to identify the cause of difficult, such as steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and leak. Then, the prognostics mode can be activated to predict the consequences. For this purpose, the knowledge of experts at Westinghouse for nuclear safety has been collected and processed to construct parameters and rules within the framework of a logic tree. The expert system may be used in an on-line mode via a connection to the plant computer, safety parameter display system, or a plant simulator. In addition to evaluating the diagnosis of an event and providing appropriate information required to generate an event report, this tool can also be used to review the normal recorded plant data daily to assure that no abnormal events have occurred. A limited assessment of the expert system was performed and is presented

  8. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Kone, Fatiaga

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in Mali (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in Mali and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, four different methodologies were used: the cylindrical calculation of the primary kimberlitic deposits, the surface area methodology, the volume and grade approach, and the content per kilometer approach. Approximately 700,000 carats are estimated to be in the alluvial deposits of the Kenieba region, with 540,000 carats calculated to lie within the concentration grade deposits. Additionally, 580,000 carats are estimated to have

  9. Assessment of features for automatic CTG analysis based on expert annotation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudácek, Vacláv; Spilka, Jirí; Lhotská, Lenka; Janku, Petr; Koucký, Michal; Huptych, Michal; Bursa, Miroslav

    2011-01-01

    Cardiotocography (CTG) is the monitoring of fetal heart rate (FHR) and uterine contractions (TOCO) since 1960's used routinely by obstetricians to detect fetal hypoxia. The evaluation of the FHR in clinical settings is based on an evaluation of macroscopic morphological features and so far has managed to avoid adopting any achievements from the HRV research field. In this work, most of the ever-used features utilized for FHR characterization, including FIGO, HRV, nonlinear, wavelet, and time and frequency domain features, are investigated and the features are assessed based on their statistical significance in the task of distinguishing the FHR into three FIGO classes. Annotation derived from the panel of experts instead of the commonly utilized pH values was used for evaluation of the features on a large data set (552 records). We conclude the paper by presenting the best uncorrelated features and their individual rank of importance according to the meta-analysis of three different ranking methods. Number of acceleration and deceleration, interval index, as well as Lempel-Ziv complexity and Higuchi's fractal dimension are among the top five features.

  10. Use of probabilistic risk assessment in expert system usage for nuclear power plant safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uhrig, R.E.

    1987-01-01

    The introduction of probability risk assessments (PRA's) to nuclear power plants in the Rasmussen Report (WASH-1400) gave us a means of evaluating the risk to the public associated with the operation of nuclear power plants, at least on a relative basis. While the choice of the ''source term'' and methodology in a PRA significantly influence the absolute probability and the consequences of core melt, comparison of two PRA calculations for two configurations of the same plant, carried out on a consistent basis, can be readily identify the increase in risk associated with going from one configuration of a plant to another by removing components or systems from service. This ratio of core melt probabilities (assuming no recovery of failed systems) obtained from two PRA calculations for different configurations was the criterion (called ''risk factor'') chosen as a basis for making a decision in an expert system as to what mitigating action, if any, would be taken to avoid a trip situation from developing. PRISIM was developed by JBF Associates of Knoxville under the sponsorship of the NRC as a system for Resident Inspectors at nuclear power plants to provide them with a relative safety status of the plant under all configurations. PRISIM calculated the risk factor---the ration of core melt probabilities of the plant under the current configuration relative to the normal configuration with all systems functioning---using an algorithm that emulates the results of the original PRA. It also presents time and core melt (assuming no recovery of systems or components)

  11. Assessment of the effectiveness of the Hungarian nuclear safety regulatory authority by international expert teams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voeroess, L.; Lorand, F.

    2001-01-01

    On the basis of the role nuclear regulatory authorities (NRA) have to fulfil and the new challenges affecting them, in the paper an overview is made on how the Hungarian NRA has evaluated and utilised the results of different international efforts in the enhancement of its effectiveness and efficiency. The reviews have been conducted by different groups of experts organised by highly recognised international organisations (e.g. IAEA, EC) and highly competent foreign regulatory bodies. The different reviews of activities and working conditions of the HAEA NSD have resulted in a generally positive picture, however, it also revealed weaknesses as well. They recognised the developments made in recent years and also appreciated the overall favourable level of nuclear safety in Hungary, identified 'good practices' and made recommendations and suggestions for the most important and most efficient ways for future improvements. These are cited or referenced in the paper. At the end, some recommendations have been formed based on the experiences gained from the review missions and from our self-assessment. (author)

  12. Expert consensus on an in vitro approach to assess pulmonary fibrogenic potential of aerosolized nanomaterials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clippinger, Amy J; Ahluwalia, Arti; Allen, David; Bonner, James C; Casey, Warren; Castranova, Vincent; David, Raymond M; Halappanavar, Sabina; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Jarabek, Annie M; Maier, Monika; Polk, William; Rothen-Rutishauser, Barbara; Sayes, Christie M; Sayre, Phil; Sharma, Monita; Stone, Vicki

    2016-07-01

    The increasing use of multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) in consumer products and their potential to induce adverse lung effects following inhalation has lead to much interest in better understanding the hazard associated with these nanomaterials (NMs). While the current regulatory requirement for substances of concern, such as MWCNTs, in many jurisdictions is a 90-day rodent inhalation test, the monetary, ethical, and scientific concerns associated with this test led an international expert group to convene in Washington, DC, USA, to discuss alternative approaches to evaluate the inhalation toxicity of MWCNTs. Pulmonary fibrosis was identified as a key adverse outcome linked to MWCNT exposure, and recommendations were made on the design of an in vitro assay that is predictive of the fibrotic potential of MWCNTs. While fibrosis takes weeks or months to develop in vivo, an in vitro test system may more rapidly predict fibrogenic potential by monitoring pro-fibrotic mediators (e.g., cytokines and growth factors). Therefore, the workshop discussions focused on the necessary specifications related to the development and evaluation of such an in vitro system. Recommendations were made for designing a system using lung-relevant cells co-cultured at the air-liquid interface to assess the pro-fibrogenic potential of aerosolized MWCNTs, while considering human-relevant dosimetry and NM life cycle transformations. The workshop discussions provided the fundamental design components of an air-liquid interface in vitro test system that will be subsequently expanded to the development of an alternative testing strategy to predict pulmonary toxicity and to generate data that will enable effective risk assessment of NMs.

  13. [The methodological basis of expert assessment of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment in the framework of civil law proceedings].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pigolkin, Iu I; Murzova, T V; Mirzoev, Kh M

    2011-01-01

    The authors discuss peculiarities of the performance of forensic medical expertise in the cases of unfavourable outcomes of the stomatological treatment. The methodological basis of expert assessment has been created to be applied in situations related to the unfavourable outcomes of dental care.

  14. The use of expert elicitation to quantify uncertainty in incomplete sorption data bases for Waste Isolation Pilot Plant performance assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, D.R.; Trauth, K.M.; Hora, S.C.

    1991-01-01

    Iterative, annual performance-assessment calculations are being performed for the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), a planned underground repository in southeastern New Mexico, USA for the disposal of transuranic waste. The performance-assessment calculations estimate the long-term radionuclide releases from the disposal system to the accessible environment. Because direct experimental data in some areas are presently of insufficient quantity to form the basis for the required distributions. Expert judgment was used to estimate the concentrations of specific radionuclides in a brine exiting a repository room or drift as it migrates up an intruding borehole, and also the distribution coefficients that describe the retardation of radionuclides in the overlying Culebra Dolomite. The variables representing these concentrations and coefficients have been shown by 1990 sensitivity analyses to be among the set of parameters making the greatest contribution to the uncertainty in WIPP performance-assessment predictions. Utilizing available information, the experts (one expert panel addressed concentrations and a second panel addressed retardation) developed an understanding of the problem and were formally elicited to obtain probability distributions that characterize the uncertainty in fixed, but unknown, quantities. The probability distributions developed by the experts are being incorporated into the 1991 performance-assessment calculations. 16 refs., 4 tabs

  15. [The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

    2015-03-01

    To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of Index Properties and Bearing Capacities of Soils for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Mrs Owoyemi

    on the physical properties and foundation bearing capacity of the soil in this area. This research aimed ... While many new structures are springing up daily in the .... plasticity soil. Most soil samples from both locations classify as A-2 -4 under the AASHTO classification system, rating as good subgrade materials. Bulk density ...

  17. Assessment of Stochastic Capacity Consumption in Railway Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2015-01-01

    The railway industry continuously strive to reduce cost and utilise resources optimally. Thus, there is a demand for tools that are able to fast and efficiently provide decision-makers with solutions that can help them achieve their goals. In strategic planning of capacity, this translates...

  18. Assessment of capacity building needs among motor vehicle ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The motor vehicle mechanics trainers' are affected by the developments in the modern automobile technology (MAT) that brought about the use of auto scan tools for diagnosis and repair of modern vehicles in Nigeria. This study examined the capacity building needs among motor vehicle mechanics trainers in the use of ...

  19. Using Fuzzy Logic to Increase the Accuracy of E-Commerce Risk Assessment Based on an Expert System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Beheshti

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Strong adaptive control can be exercised even without access to accurate data inputs. Such control is possible through fuzzy mathematics, which is a meta-collection of Boolean logic principles that imply relative accuracy. Fuzzy mathematics find applications in e-commerce, where different risk analysis methods are available for risk assessment and estimation. Such approaches can be quantitative or qualitative, depending on the type of examined data. Quantitative methods are grounded in statistics, whereas qualitative methods are based on expert judgments and fuzzy set theory. Given that qualitative methods are very subjective and deal with vague or inaccurate data, fuzzy logic can be used to extract useful information from data inaccuracies. In this study, a model based on the opinions of e-commerce security experts was designed and implemented by using fuzzy expert systems and MATLAB. A case study was conducted to validate the effectiveness of the Model.

  20. The TEX-I real-time expert system, applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmal, N.; Leder, H.J.; Schade, H.J.

    1988-01-01

    Interatom, a subsidiary company of Siemens, is developing expert systems for the technical domain. These systems are operating in various industrial applications like flexible manufacturing or plant configuration, based on a domain-specific expert system shell, developed by Interatom. Additional projects are focusing on real-time diagnostics, e.g., for nuclear power plants. The authors report in this paper about a diagnosis expert system for the liquid-metal fast breeder reactor SNR-300, which uses new real-time tools, developed within the German TEX-I project (technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis, and process control). The purpose of the system is to support the reactor operators in assessing plant status in real time, based on readings from many sensors. By on-line connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components, and recommended operator response in abnormal conditions. In the present knowledge acquisition and test phase, the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulator is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behavior of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers, and cooling components. Additionally, the system's response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated

  1. Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chung, Timothy S.; Patino-Echeverri, Dalia; Johnson, Timothy L.

    2011-01-01

    A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO 2 capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: → Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. → Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. → Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. → These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. → The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

  2. Expert assessments of retrofitting coal-fired power plants with carbon dioxide capture technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chung, Timothy S. [Eastern Research Group, Inc., 110 Hartwell Avenue 1, Lexington, MA 02421-3134l (United States); Patino-Echeverri, Dalia, E-mail: dalia.patino@duke.edu [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States); Johnson, Timothy L. [Nicholas School of the Environment, Box 90328, Duke University, Durham NC 27708 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    A set of 13 US based experts in post-combustion and oxy-fuel combustion CO{sub 2} capture systems responded to an extensive questionnaire asking their views on the present status and future expected performance and costs for amine-based, chilled ammonia, and oxy-combustion retrofits of coal-fired power plants. This paper presents the experts' responses for technology maturity, ideal plant characteristics for early adopters, and the extent to which R and D and deployment incentives will impact costs. It also presents the best estimates and 95% confidence limits of the energy penalties associated with amine-based systems. The results show a general consensus that amine-based systems are closer to commercial application, but potential for improving performance and lowering costs is limited; chilled ammonia and oxy-combustion offer greater potential for cost reductions, but not without greater uncertainty regarding scale and technical feasibility. - Highlights: > Study presents experts' views on CCS retrofit costs and performance. > Experts commented on amine-based systems, chilled ammonia, and oxy-fuel combustion. > Estimates of future energy penalty show uncertainty for the three technologies. > These estimates under an aggressive RD and D policy scenario narrow significantly. > The experts' judgments support the need for enhanced RD and D for post-combustion CCS.

  3. Community capacity to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence: a survey of Ontario's HIV/AIDS sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rourke Sean B

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based organizations (CBOs are important stakeholders in health systems and are increasingly called upon to use research evidence to inform their advocacy, program planning, and service delivery. To better support CBOs to find and use research evidence, we sought to assess the capacity of CBOs in the HIV/AIDS sector to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence in their work. Methods We invited executive directors of HIV/AIDS CBOs in Ontario, Canada (n = 51 to complete the Canadian Health Services Research Foundation's "Is Research Working for You?" survey. Findings Based on responses from 25 organizations that collectively provide services to approximately 32,000 clients per year with 290 full-time equivalent staff, we found organizational capacity to acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence to be low. CBO strengths include supporting a culture that rewards flexibility and quality improvement, exchanging information within their organization, and ensuring that their decision-making processes have a place for research. However, CBO Executive Directors indicated that they lacked the skills, time, resources, incentives, and links with experts to acquire research, assess its quality and reliability, and summarize it in a user-friendly way. Conclusion Given the limited capacity to find and use research evidence, we recommend a capacity-building strategy for HIV/AIDS CBOs that focuses on providing the tools, resources, and skills needed to more consistently acquire, assess, adapt, and apply research evidence. Such a strategy may be appropriate in other sectors and jurisdictions as well given that CBO Executive Directors in the HIV/AIDS sector in Ontario report low capacity despite being in the enviable position of having stable government infrastructure in place to support them, benefiting from long-standing investment in capacity building, and being part of an active provincial network. CBOs in other

  4. [Aspects of family-oriented diagnosis in compulsory legal family expert assessment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mladek, G; Löffler, M; Nickel, P

    1990-06-01

    In forensic psychology, recommendations that courts request when granting one of the parents the right of child upbringing after a divorce pose a problem for the person who is required to give such expert judgment. The authors describe the difficult situation he faces when having to decide for and, at the same time, against one of the parents. A good knowledge of family psychology and pathopsychology is essential, and for drawing up the expertise and stating his reasons, the expert requires methodical resources. The authors describe four procedures of relational diagnosis and recommend the combined use of these in conjunction with methods that have been employed so far.

  5. Nuclear safeguards in challenging times [Experts on nuclear safeguards and verification assess the global picture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, W.S.; Hillerman, J.

    2007-01-01

    Meeting at the IAEA's International Safeguards Symposium in October 2006, more than 500 experts from 60-plus countries and organizations addressed current and future challenges related to safeguards concepts, approaches, technologies, and experience. Sessions addressed five main issues driving developments: Current challenges to the safeguards system; Further strengthening safeguards practices and approaches; Improving the collection and analysis of safeguards information; Advances in safeguards techniques and technology; and Future challenges. Every four to five years, the IAEA brings together safeguards experts from all over the world at international symposia. In October 2001, they met in the shadow of 9/11 and the symposium included a special session on the prevention of nuclear terrorism

  6. When health technology assessment is confidential and experts have no power: the case of Hungary.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csanádi, Marcell; Löblová, Olga; Ozierański, Piotr; Harsányi, András; Kaló, Zoltán; McKee, Martin; King, Lawrence

    2018-03-26

    Health technology assessment (HTA) is not simply a mechanistic technical exercise as it takes place within a specific institutional context. Yet, we know little about how this context influences the operation of HTA and its ability to influence policy and practice. We seek to demonstrate the importance of considering institutional context, using a case study of Hungary, a country that has pioneered HTA in Central and Eastern Europe. We conducted 26 in-depth, semi-structured interviews with public- and private-sector stakeholders. We found that while the HTA Department, the Hungarian HTA organisation, fulfilled its formal role envisaged in the legislation, its potential for supporting evidence-based decision-making was not fully realised given the low levels of transparency and stakeholder engagement. Further, the Department's practical influence throughout the reimbursement process was perceived as being constrained by the payer and policy-makers, as well as its own limited organisational capacity. There was also scepticism as to whether the current operational form of the HTA process delivered 'good value for money'. Nevertheless, it still had a positive impact on the development of a broader institutional HTA infrastructure in Hungary. Our findings highlight the importance of considering institutional context in analysing the HTA function within health systems.

  7. Assessment of giant panda habitat based on integration of expert system and neural network

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, X.; Skidmore, A.K.; Bronsveld, M.C.

    2006-01-01

    To conserve giant panda effectively, it is important to understand the spatial pattern and temporal change of its habitat. Mapping is an effective approach for wildlife habitat evaluation and monitoring. The application of recently developed artificial intelligence tools, including expert systems

  8. Personal factors influencing agreement between expert and self-reported assessments of an occupational exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neilson, Heather K; Sass-Kortsak, Andrea; Lou, W Y Wendy; Purdham, James T

    2007-01-01

    This study aimed to identify personal factors associated with expert and respondent agreement on past occupational exposure. Epidemiologic data was collected from 1995 to 1998 in a community-based, case-control study of prostate cancer. Using longest jobs and excluding agreement on "never" exposure, self-reported and expert estimates of ever/ never exposure, by skin or ingestion, to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons were compared. Agreement between respondents and the expert was 53.9 percent (N=1,038), with overreporting being more common than underreporting relative to the expert (31.8 percent versus 14.4 percent). In multiple logistic regression models, white-collar occupational status was significantly associated with overreporting (odds ratio [OR] = 0.142; 95 percent confidence interval [CI]: 0.095-0.211; blue-collar versus white-collar), while age was associated with underreporting (OR=1.077; 95 percent CI: 1.043-1.112; one-year increase). Neither job satisfaction nor risk perception appeared to confound other associations. In future studies, overreporting by white-collar workers might be avoided by providing clearer definitions of exposure, whereas elderly respondents may require aids to enhance exposure recall.

  9. Overall welfare assessment of pregnant sow housing systems based on interviews with experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bracke, M.B.M.; Metz, J.H.M.; Spruijt, B.M.; Dijkhuizen, A.A.

    1999-01-01

    In interviews with 11 pig experts the main housing systems for pregnant sows were identified as tethering (T), individual housing in stalls (IS), group housing with stalls (GS), trickle feeding or biofix (B), electronic sow feeding (ESF), and outdoor housing with huts (O). The family pen system

  10. Complexity of Judgment: What Makes Possible the Convergence of Expert and Nonexpert Ratings in Assessing Creativity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galati, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    This work is part of the debate regarding the possibility to judge the creativity of a particular object (an idea, a painting, an industrial product, etc.), by expert or nonexpert raters, with the same results or not. The study is focused on the concept "complexity of judgment" considered fundamental to fully understand the problem. The…

  11. Financial and testamentary capacity evaluations: procedures and assessment instruments underneath a functional approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa, Liliana B; Simões, Mário R; Firmino, Horácio; Peisah, Carmelle

    2014-02-01

    Mental health professionals are frequently involved in mental capacity determinations. However, there is a lack of specific measures and well-defined procedures for these evaluations. The main purpose of this paper is to provide a review of financial and testamentary capacity evaluation procedures, including not only the traditional neuropsychological and functional assessment but also the more recently developed forensic assessment instruments (FAIs), which have been developed to provide a specialized answer to legal systems regarding civil competencies. Here the main guidelines, papers, and other references are reviewed in order to achieve a complete and comprehensive selection of instruments used in the assessment of financial and testamentary capacity. Although some specific measures for financial abilities have been developed recently, the same is not true for testamentary capacity. Here are presented several instruments or methodologies for assessing financial and testamentary capacity, including neuropsychological assessment, functional assessment scales, performance based functional assessment instruments, and specific FAIs. FAIs are the only specific instruments intended to provide a specific and direct answer to the assessment of financial capacity based on legal systems. Considering the need to move from a diagnostic to a functional approach in financial and testamentary capacity evaluations, it is essential to consider both general functional examination as well as cognitive functioning.

  12. Cumulative Impact Assessment: Approaching Environmental Capacity in Development Area Using Environmental Impact Assessment Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, N.; Lee, M. J.; Maeng, J. H.

    2017-12-01

    Environmental impact assessment estimates the impact of development as a business unit and establishes mitigation plan. If the development is done, its economic effects can spread to the nearby areas. So that various developments can be distributed at different time intervals. The impact of the new developments can be combined with existing environmental impacts and can have a larger impact. That is, Cumulative impact assessment is needed to consider the environmental capacity of the Nearby area. Cumulative impact assessments require policy tools such as environmental impact assessment information and cumulative impact estimation models. In Korea, environmental information (water quality, air quality, etc.) of the development site is measured for environmental impact assessment and monitored for a certain period (generally 5 years) after the project. In addition, by constructing the environmental information as a spatial database, it is possible to express the environmental impact on a regional basis spatially and to intuitively use it for development site selection. Utilizing a composite model of environmental impact assessment information and Remote Sensing data for cumulative impact estimation, That can be used as a policy decision support tool that provides quantitative information for development area management, such as time series effect and sprawl phenomenon.

  13. A framework for self-assessment of capacity needs in land administration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig; van der Molen, Paul

    2006-01-01

    This paper is facing the widely stated problem of poor institutional capacity of land administration agencies in many developing and transition countries. Responding to this problem has not been simple. The challenges of building capacity in land administration are immense and not similar to just...... human resource development. Capacity building addresses the broader concept of the ability of organisations and individuals to perform functions effectively, efficiently and sustainable. The guidelines presented in this paper address the ability/capacity of land administration systems at the societal...... processes; to needed human resources and training programs. For each step the capacity of the system can be assessed and possible or needed improvement can be identified. The guidelines aim to function as a basis for in-country self-assessment of the capacity needs in land administration. The government may...

  14. Institutional capacity for health systems research in East and Central African schools of public health: experiences with a capacity assessment tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessani, Nasreen; Lewy, Daniela; Ekirapa-Kiracho, Elizabeth; Bennett, Sara

    2014-06-02

    Despite significant investments in health systems research (HSR) capacity development, there is a dearth of information regarding how to assess HSR capacity. An alliance of schools of public health (SPHs) in East and Central Africa developed a tool for the self-assessment of HSR capacity with the aim of producing institutional capacity development plans. Between June and November 2011, seven SPHs across the Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda implemented this co-created tool. The objectives of the institutional assessments were to assess existing capacities for HSR and to develop capacity development plans to address prioritized gaps. A mixed-method approach was employed consisting of document analysis, self-assessment questionnaires, in-depth interviews, and institutional dialogues aimed at capturing individual perceptions of institutional leadership, collective HSR skills, knowledge translation, and faculty incentives to engage in HSR. Implementation strategies for the capacity assessment varied across the SPHs. This paper reports findings from semi-structured interviews with focal persons from each SPH, to reflect on the process used at each SPH to execute the institutional assessments as well as the perceived strengths and weaknesses of the assessment process. The assessment tool was robust enough to be utilized in its entirety across all seven SPHs resulting in a thorough HSR capacity assessment and a capacity development plan for each SPH. Successful implementation of the capacity assessment exercises depended on four factors: (i) support from senior leadership and collaborators, (ii) a common understanding of HSR, (iii) adequate human and financial resources for the exercise, and (iv) availability of data. Methods of extracting information from the results of the assessments, however, were tailored to the unique objectives of each SPH. This institutional HSR capacity assessment tool and the process for its utilization

  15. Social science constructs in ecosystem assessments: revisiting community capacity and community resiliency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellen M. Donoghue; Victoria E. Sturtevant

    2007-01-01

    This article explores the development of sociological constructs in community assessment components of large-scale ecosystem assessments. We compare the conceptual and operational development of the constructs of community capacity and community resiliency used in three community assessments in the western United States: the Forest Ecosystem Management Assessment Team...

  16. Structural capacity assessment of a generic pre-stressed concrete containment structure under aircraft impact

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iliev, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    The studied containment expressed adequate capacity to resist impact loads in the upper range of the studied diapason. The aircraft impact capacity of the containment for impact in the upper part of the cylindrical shell is about 25‐30% higher than the capacity for impact in the middle part of the cylindrical shell. The obtained fragility curves reefed to MoA can be then used for various additional calculations in the safety assessment of nuclear facilities under aircraft impact

  17. Experts' perspective on the performance of Chinese technical guidelines for Plan Environmental Impact Assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He Jia; Sun Sun; Bao Cunkuan; Chen Fan; Jiang Dahe

    2011-01-01

    This research was to evaluate the Technical Guideline (HJ/T130-2003) effectiveness based on data resource from a questionnaire survey and interviews on EIA experts. The result demonstrated that the guideline served mainly as a quality control measure for PEIA products, and only a small proportion of experts considered it effective due to its inconsistency with the newly released Chinese PEIA Regulation (2009) and poor practicability. Current status of SEA implementation in China was also studied in terms of application fields, effectiveness evaluation, and major issues to affect SEA, to conclude that SEA implementation in China is premature, and with limited effectiveness. The major problem was the lack of effective methodologies and technical tools. Recommendations for revising the PEIA Guideline and advices to improving SEA implementation in China were accordingly proposed.

  18. Expert system for the reliability assessment of hydro-carbon transporting pipelines

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lukacs, J.; Nagy, G.; Toeroek, I. [Department of Mechanical Technology, University of Miskolc, Miskolc-Egyetemvaros (Hungary)

    1998-12-31

    Safety operation, condition monitoring, periodical inspection and rehabilitation of high-pressure hydro-carbon transporting pipelines are a complex problem. To answer arising questions is inconceivable without technical-critical evaluation of defects - originated during manufacturing or operation - can be found on the pipeline. This evaluation must be in line with requirements of our age, i.e. it has to assert such concept of which basis is not the `possible worst` but the `just happening wrong`. Solving these problems without application of computer resources is inconceivable in our time. The final purpose of the solution is the expert system and among the components of the expert system primarily the development of the knowledge base is needed. The paper demonstrates a possible structure of the knowledge base, furthermore its fundamental elements and their contents (defect types, evaluation possibilities of defects, categorisation of pipelines) and summaries the prospective advantages of its application. (orig.) 27 refs.

  19. Expert assessment of preventive measures in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozerova, I I; Prilipko, V A; Myshkovska, A A

    2013-01-01

    An expert evaluation of preventive measures focused on population health maintenance in the zone of guaranteed voluntary resettlement taking into account the limitations of the provisions of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine on the clean-up of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. The research survey was applied using a peer review method. The three-level (national, regional, district) expert workgroup was involved been employed within recovery of the Chornobyl disaster aftermath. Professional experience of minimum 10 years, corresponding profile and current position were the requirements for selection. A simple streamlining the values of paired or consistent comparison was applied on the primary empirical data. The arrangements made in recent years by the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and ministries engaged in clean-up and recovery from the Chornobyl nuclear power plant accident are ineffective. Costs from the Fund for the implementation of measures to clean-up the consequences of the Chornobyl disaster and social protection are reduced. There is no consensus among experts regarding some constraint of an action of certain articles of the Law of Ukraine "On the status and social protection of citizens affected by the Chornobyl disaster" on the principles of social protection and healthcare of the population living in contaminated areas. In addressing the social and health consequences of the Chornobyl disaster the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine just for a long time has passes no amendment to the legislation on the subject. At that there are several restrictions in force for a large number of articles of the existing laws that were adopted in 1991. The mentioned above exacerbates social strain and destroys the "citizen-state relationship". The extreme need has emerged in a comprehensive public review of existing laws with involvement of multidisciplinary group of experts to a "round table" to justify the draft laws. Ozerova Ju. Ju., Prylypko V. A., Myshkovska A. A

  20. Measurement and assessment of carrying capacity of the environment in Ningbo, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, R Z; Borthwick, Alistair G L

    2011-08-01

    Carrying Capacity of the Environment (CCE) provides a useful measure of the sustainable development of a region. Approaches that use integrated assessment instead of measurement can lead to misinterpretation of sustainable development because of confusion between Environmental Stress (ES) indexes and CCE indexes, and the selection of over-simple linear plus models. The present paper proposes a comprehensive measurement system for CCE which comprises models of natural resources capacity, environmental assimilative capacity, ecosystem services capacity, and society supporting capacity. The corresponding measurable indexes are designed to assess CCE using a carrying capacity surplus ratio model and a vector of surplus ratio of carrying capacity model. The former aims at direct comparison of ES and CCE based on the values of basic indexes, and the latter uses a Euclidean vector to assess CCE states. The measurement and assessment approaches are applicable to Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) and environmental planning and management. A case study is presented for Ningbo, China, whereby all the basic indexes of ECC are measured and the CCE states assessed for 2005 and 2010. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Predictors of financial capacity performance in older adults using the Financial Competence Assessment Inventory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachana, Nancy A; Byrne, Gerard J; Wilson, Jill; Tilse, Cheryl; Pinsker, Donna M; Massavelli, Bronwyn; Vearncombe, Katharine J; Mitchell, Leander K

    2014-06-01

    Declines in financial capacity in later life may arise from both neurocognitive and/or psychiatric disorders. The influence of socio-demographic, cognitive, health, and psychiatric variables on financial capacity performance was explored. Seventy-six healthy community-dwelling adults and 25 older patients referred for assessment of financial capacity were assessed on pertinent cognitive, psychiatric, and financial capacity measures, including Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination - Revised (ACE-R), Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE), Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), Geriatric Anxiety Inventory (GAI), selected Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) items, Financial Competence Assessment Inventory (FCAI), and Social Vulnerability Scale (SVS). The internal consistency of the debt management subscale of the FCAI was relatively poor in our sample. Financial capacity performance differed between controls and patients. In our sample, performance on the FCAI was predicted by Mini-Mental State Examination, IQCODE, and GAI, but not by ACE-R, GDS, NPI items, or SVS (adjusted R(2) = 0.7059). Anxiety but not depression predicted financial capacity performance, possibly reflecting relatively low variance of depressive symptoms in this sample. Current cognitive decline as measured by the informant-rated IQCODE was more highly correlated to financial capacity than either educational attainment or ACE-R scores. Lack of significance of ACE-R data may reflect the instrument's decreased sensitivity to domains relevant to financial capacity, compared with more detailed neuropsychological assessment tools. The FCAI displayed fairly robust psychometric properties apart from the debt management subscale.

  2. Expert judgment based multi-criteria decision model to address uncertainties in risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Flari, Villie; Chaudhry, Qasim; Neslo, Rabin; Cooke, Roger

    2011-01-01

    Currently, risk assessment of nanotechnology-enabled food products is considered difficult due to the large number of uncertainties involved. We developed an approach which could address some of the main uncertainties through the use of expert judgment. Our approach employs a multi-criteria decision model, based on probabilistic inversion that enables capturing experts’ preferences in regard to safety of nanotechnology-enabled food products, and identifying their opinions in regard to the significance of key criteria that are important in determining the safety of such products. An advantage of these sample-based techniques is that they provide out-of-sample validation and therefore a robust scientific basis. This validation in turn adds predictive power to the model developed. We achieved out-of-sample validation in two ways: (1) a portion of the expert preference data was excluded from the model’s fitting and was then predicted by the model fitted on the remaining rankings and (2) a (partially) different set of experts generated new scenarios, using the same criteria employed in the model, and ranked them; their ranks were compared with ranks predicted by the model. The degree of validation in each method was less than perfect but reasonably substantial. The validated model we applied captured and modelled experts’ preferences regarding safety of hypothetical nanotechnology-enabled food products. It appears therefore that such an approach can provide a promising route to explore further for assessing the risk of nanotechnology-enabled food products.

  3. Qualitative versus quantitative assessment of cerebrovascular reserve capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okuguchi, Taku

    2000-01-01

    Quantitative studies of cerebral blood flow (CBF) combined with a acetazolamide (ACZ) challenge have defined a subgroup of patients with symptomatic carotid or middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusive diseases who are at an increased risk for stroke. Recent reports suggest that qualitative CBF techniques could also define the same high-risk subgroup. To evaluate the accuracy of the qualitative method, we compared qualitative ratios with quantitative CBF data, obtained using iodine-123-N-isopropyl-p-iodoamphetamine (IMP) single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). We analyzed qualitative and quantitative IMP SPECT images for 50 patients with symptomatic carotid or middle cerebral artery occlusive diseases. Quantitative CBF data were measured by the autoradiographic technique. One region-of-interest within each hemisphere was within the MCA territory. Relative cerebrovascular reserve capacity (CVRC) obtained using qualitative images before and after the intravenous administration of 1 g of ACZ was defined as follows: ( ACZ C occl / ACZ C non )/( baseline C occl / baseline C non ). The threshold for abnormal relative CVRC was defined as less than 1.0. Quantitative CBF was considered abnormal when the response to ACZ (percent change) on the symptomatic side (absolute CVRC) was a decrease of more than 10%. Of 39 patients whose relative CVRC were considered abnormal, 29 (74%) were normal in absolute CVRC (i.e., false positive). Two of 12 (17%) who were not considered compromised by qualitative criteria had abnormal absolute CVRC (i.e., false negative). This study demonstrates that this important subgroup cannot be accurately defined with qualitative methodology. (author)

  4. Qualitative versus quantitative assessment of cerebrovascular reserve capacity

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Okuguchi, Taku [Iwate Medical Univ., Morioka (Japan). School of Medicine

    2000-06-01

    Quantitative studies of cerebral blood flow (CBF) combined with a acetazolamide (ACZ) challenge have defined a subgroup of patients with symptomatic carotid or middle cerebral artery (MCA) occlusive diseases who are at an increased risk for stroke. Recent reports suggest that qualitative CBF techniques could also define the same high-risk subgroup. To evaluate the accuracy of the qualitative method, we compared qualitative ratios with quantitative CBF data, obtained using iodine-123-N-isopropyl-p-iodoamphetamine (IMP) single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT). We analyzed qualitative and quantitative IMP SPECT images for 50 patients with symptomatic carotid or middle cerebral artery occlusive diseases. Quantitative CBF data were measured by the autoradiographic technique. One region-of-interest within each hemisphere was within the MCA territory. Relative cerebrovascular reserve capacity (CVRC) obtained using qualitative images before and after the intravenous administration of 1 g of ACZ was defined as follows: ({sub ACZ}C{sub occl}/{sub ACZ}C{sub non})/({sub baseline}C{sub occl}/{sub baseline}C{sub n}= {sub on}). The threshold for abnormal relative CVRC was defined as less than 1.0. Quantitative CBF was considered abnormal when the response to ACZ (percent change) on the symptomatic side (absolute CVRC) was a decrease of more than 10%. Of 39 patients whose relative CVRC were considered abnormal, 29 (74%) were normal in absolute CVRC (i.e., false positive). Two of 12 (17%) who were not considered compromised by qualitative criteria had abnormal absolute CVRC (i.e., false negative). This study demonstrates that this important subgroup cannot be accurately defined with qualitative methodology. (author)

  5. Expert estimation of human error probabilities in nuclear power plant operations: a review of probability assessment and scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stillwell, W.G.; Seaver, D.A.; Schwartz, J.P.

    1982-05-01

    This report reviews probability assessment and psychological scaling techniques that could be used to estimate human error probabilities (HEPs) in nuclear power plant operations. The techniques rely on expert opinion and can be used to estimate HEPs where data do not exist or are inadequate. These techniques have been used in various other contexts and have been shown to produce reasonably accurate probabilities. Some problems do exist, and limitations are discussed. Additional topics covered include methods for combining estimates from multiple experts, the effects of training on probability estimates, and some ideas on structuring the relationship between performance shaping factors and HEPs. Preliminary recommendations are provided along with cautions regarding the costs of implementing the recommendations. Additional research is required before definitive recommendations can be made

  6. CAPACITY BUILDING PROCESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL AND HEALTH IMPACT ASSESSMENT FOR A THAI COMMUNITY.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaithui, Suthat; Sithisarankul, Pornchai; Hengpraprom, Sarunya

    2017-03-01

    This research aimed at exploring the development of the capacitybuilding process in environmental and health impact assessment, including the consideration of subsequent, capacity-building achievements. Data were gathered through questionnaires, participatory observations, in-depth interviews, focus group discussions, and capacity building checklist forms. These data were analyzed using content analysis, descriptive statistics, and inferential statistics. Our study used the components of the final draft for capacity-building processes consisting of ten steps that were formulated by synthesis from each respective process. Additionally, the evaluation of capacity building levels was performed using 10-item evaluation criteria for nine communities. The results indicated that the communities performed well under these criteria. Finally, exploration of the factors influencing capacity building in environmental and health impact assessment indicated that the learning of community members by knowledge exchange via activities and study visits were the most influential factors of the capacity building processes in environmental and health impact assessment. The final revised version of capacitybuilding process in environmental and health impact assessment could serve as a basis for the consideration of interventions in similar areas, so that they increased capacity in environmental and health impact assessments.

  7. Parenting capacity assessment for the court in a multifamily group setting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberta Di Pasquale

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Parenting capacity assessment in court evaluations is a particularly complex task, given that it is necessary to consider the vast array of distinct and interrelated aspects and abilities which represent parenting, as well as the elevated number of contextual levels that influence parenting quality. The perspective we want to introduce regards the potentiality of the multifamily group as the elective observational setting in parenting capacity assessment.

  8. Strategic Assessment of Trauma Care Capacity in Ghana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Barclay T; Quansah, Robert; Gyedu, Adam; Ankomah, James; Donkor, Peter; Mock, Charles

    2015-10-01

    This study aimed to assess availability of trauma care technology in Ghana. In addition, factors contributing to deficiencies were evaluated. By doing so, potential solutions to inefficient aspects of health systems management and maladapted technology for trauma care in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) could be identified. Thirty-two items were selected from the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care. Direct inspection and structured interviews with administrative, clinical, and biomedical engineering staff were used to assess the challenges and successes of item availability at 40 purposively sampled district, regional, and tertiary hospitals. Hospital assessments demonstrated marked deficiencies. Some of these were low cost, such as basic airway supplies, chest tubes, and cervical collars. Item non-availability resulted from several contributing factors, namely equipment absence, lack of training, frequent stock-outs, and technology breakage. A number of root causes for these factors were identified, including ineffective healthcare financing by way of untimely national insurance reimbursements, procurement and stock-management practices, and critical gaps in local biomedical engineering and trauma care training. Nonetheless, local examples of successfully overcoming deficiencies were identified (e.g., public-private partnering, ensuring company engineers trained technicians on-the-job during technology installation or servicing). While availability of several low-cost items could be better supplied by improvements in stock-management and procurement policies, there is a critical need for redress of the national insurance reimbursement system and trauma care training of district hospital staff. Further, developing local service and technical support capabilities is more and more pressing as technology plays an increasingly important role in LMIC healthcare systems.

  9. An Evolutionary Approach to Adaptive Capacity Assessment: A Case Study of Soufriere, Saint Lucia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Ryan Hogarth

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the capacity of Soufriere, Saint Lucia to adapt to climate change. A community-based vulnerability assessment was conducted that employed semi-structured interviews with community members. The results were analysed using the Local Adaptive Capacity (LAC framework, which characterises adaptive capacity based on five elements: asset base; institutions and entitlements; knowledge and information; innovation; and flexible forward-looking decision-making and governance. Beyond providing an in-depth analysis of Soufriere’s capacity to adapt to climate change, the paper argues that the elements of the LAC framework largely correspond with an evolutionary perspective on adaptive capacity. However, other evolutionary themes—such as structure, history, path-dependency, scale, agency, conservation of diversity, and the perils of specialisation—should also be taken into account.

  10. Performance-based methodology for assessing seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shibin, Lin; Lili, Xie; Maosheng, Gong; Ming, Li

    2010-06-01

    This paper presents a performance-based methodology for the assessment of seismic vulnerability and capacity of buildings. The vulnerability assessment methodology is based on the HAZUS methodology and the improved capacitydemand-diagram method. The spectral displacement ( S d ) of performance points on a capacity curve is used to estimate the damage level of a building. The relationship between S d and peak ground acceleration (PGA) is established, and then a new vulnerability function is expressed in terms of PGA. Furthermore, the expected value of the seismic capacity index (SCev) is provided to estimate the seismic capacity of buildings based on the probability distribution of damage levels and the corresponding seismic capacity index. The results indicate that the proposed vulnerability methodology is able to assess seismic damage of a large number of building stock directly and quickly following an earthquake. The SCev provides an effective index to measure the seismic capacity of buildings and illustrate the relationship between the seismic capacity of buildings and seismic action. The estimated result is compared with damage surveys of the cities of Dujiangyan and Jiangyou in the M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake, revealing that the methodology is acceptable for seismic risk assessment and decision making. The primary reasons for discrepancies between the estimated results and the damage surveys are discussed.

  11. Expert systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haldy, P.A.

    1988-01-01

    The definitions of the terms 'artificial intelligence' and 'expert systems', the methodology, areas of employment and limits of expert systems are discussed. The operation of an expert system is described, especially the presentation and organization of knowledge as well as interference and control. Methods and tools for expert system development are presented and their application in nuclear energy are briefly addressed. 7 figs., 2 tabs., 6 refs

  12. Expert Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Lucas, P.J.F.

    2005-01-01

    Expert systems mimic the problem-solving activity of human experts in specialized domains by capturing and representing expert knowledge. Expert systems include a knowledge base, an inference engine that derives conclusions from the knowledge, and a user interface. Knowledge may be stored as if-then rules, orusing other formalisms such as frames and predicate logic. Uncertain knowledge may be represented using certainty factors, Bayesian networks, Dempster-Shafer belief functions, or fuzzy se...

  13. Expanding the power base. Building capacities for comparative energy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamilton, B.; Bui, D.T.; Conzelmann, G.

    2000-01-01

    Analysis of national energy systems is reaching unprecedented degrees of complexity. In addition to uncertainty of future energy demand, technology performance and costs, planners and decision makers are confronted with issues such as environment protection, sustainable development, deregulation and market liberalization. At the same time, public sector funds for energy investment projects are being progressively reduced. The IAEA offers its Member States a comprehensive programme of technical assistance and cooperation which covers many diverse areas related to peaceful uses of nuclear energy. In the area of comparative energy assessment, the objective of assistance is to strengthen national capabilities for elaborating sustainable patterns of energy supply and use. Assistance is provided in three ways, namely by: distributing state-of-the-art methodologies and decision-making tools tailored to the special needs of developing countries; providing training in model application, interpretation of results and translation into decision or policy making; and carrying out national studies in co-operation with requesting Member States

  14. Observable phenomena that reveal medical students' clinical reasoning ability during expert assessment of their history taking: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haring, Catharina M; Cools, Bernadette M; van Gurp, Petra J M; van der Meer, Jos W M; Postma, Cornelis T

    2017-08-29

    During their clerkships, medical students are meant to expand their clinical reasoning skills during their patient encounters. Observation of these encounters could reveal important information on the students' clinical reasoning abilities, especially during history taking. A grounded theory approach was used to analyze what expert physicians apply as indicators in their assessment of medical students' diagnostic reasoning abilities during history taking. Twelve randomly selected clinical encounter recordings of students at the end of the internal medicine clerkships were observed by six expert assessors, who were prompted to formulate their assessment criteria in a think-aloud procedure. These formulations were then analyzed to identify the common denominators and leading principles. The main indicators of clinical reasoning ability were abstracted from students' observable acts during history taking in the encounter. These were: taking control, recognizing and responding to relevant information, specifying symptoms, asking specific questions that point to pathophysiological thinking, placing questions in a logical order, checking agreement with patients, summarizing and body language. In addition, patients' acts and the course, result and efficiency of the conversation were identified as indicators of clinical reasoning, whereas context, using self as a reference, and emotion/feelings were identified by the clinicians as variables in their assessment of clinical reasoning. In observing and assessing clinical reasoning during history taking by medical students, general and specific phenomena to be used as indicators for this process could be identified. These phenomena can be traced back to theories on the development and the process of clinical reasoning.

  15. Ultimate internal pressure capacity assessment of SC structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Hyungkui; Choi, Inkil

    2013-01-01

    An SC structure applied to a containment building can be quite effective. However, an SC structure cannot be applied to a containment building, because its internal pressure resistance performance has not been verified. The containment building, which undergoes ultimate internal pressure, resists the internal pressure through a pre-stress tendon. It is hard to apply a tendon to an SC structure because of its structural characteristics. Therefore, the internal pressure resistance performance of the SC structure itself should be ensured to apply it to a structure with internal pressure resistance. In this study, the suitability of an SC structure as a substitution for the tendon of a pressure resistant structure was evaluated. A containment structure model was used in this study, because it was representative structures that resistance of ultimate internal pressure be required. In this study, a nonlinear analysis was performed to evaluate and compare the behaviors of tendon model and SC structure model. By comparing the internal pressure-displacement according to the structure type, the stability of SC structure model was assessed

  16. The TEX-I real-time expert system applied to situation assessment for the SNR-300 reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmal, N.; Doerbecker, K.; Leder, H.J.; Rueckert, M.; Schade, H.J.

    1990-01-01

    Within the German TEX-I Project, which was sponsored by the Federal Ministry for Research and Technology, several companies developed industrial applications of technical expert systems for data interpretation, diagnosis and process control. The purpose of the diagnosis expert system reported here is to support the operators of the LMFBR SNR-300 in assessing plant status in real-time, based on readings from a large number of sensors. By online connection to the process control computer, it can monitor all incoming signal values, check the consistency of data, continuously diagnose the current plant status, detect unusual trends prior to accidents, localize faulty components and recommend operators response in abnormal conditions. The systems architecture consists of two basic subsystems, an inference engine and an intelligent process interface, implemented in Lisp on a Symbolics-Workstation. The inference engine has been derived from BABYLON, a hybrid shell developed by the German computer research institute GMD. This shell includes rules, prologue, constraints and an object oriented frame processor. The extended version has a component description language and a top-down diagnosis scheme including a mechanism of attention focusing. Inference run as independent, quasi-parallel processes. These so-called inference tasks can interrupt or abort each other, if higher priority events must be processed. The complete system is modelled in an object oriented matter and is divided into several subsystems and each subsystem into its physical components. At present the expert system is connected to a real-time simulation of the reactor. The simulation is based on a thermohydraulic code for simulation of the transient behaviour of temperatures and flow rates in the reactor core, plena, pipes, pumps, valves, intermediate heat exchangers and cooling components. Additionally, the systems response to an asynchronous operator interaction can be simulated. Several types of anomalies

  17. Assessing peak aerobic capacity in Dutch law enforcement officers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet Wittink

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: To cross-validate the existing peak rate of oxygen consumption (VO2peak prediction equations in Dutch law enforcement officers and to determine whether these prediction equations can be used to predict VO2peak for groups and in a single individual. A further objective was to report normative absolute and relative VO2peak values of a sample of law enforcement officers in the Netherlands. Material and Methods: The peak rate of oxygen consumption (ml×kg–1×min–1 was measured using a maximal incremental bicycle test in 1530 subjects, including 1068 male and 461 female police officers. Validity of the prediction equations for groups was assessed by comparing predicted VO2peak with measured VO2peak using paired t-tests. For individual differences limits of agreement (LoA were calculated. Equations were considered valid for individuals when the difference between measured and predicted VO2peak did not exceed ±1 metabolic equivalent (MET in 95% of individuals. Results: None of the equations met the validity criterion of 95% of individuals having ±1 MET difference or less than the measured value. Limits of agreement (LoAs were large in all predictions. At the individual level, none of the equations were valid predictors of VO2peak (ml×kg–1×min–1. Normative values for Dutch law enforcement officers were presented. Conclusions: Substantial differences between measured and predicted VO2peak (ml×kg–1×min–1 were found. Most tested equations were invalid predictors of VO2peak at group level and all were invalid at individual levels.

  18. An Assessment of Epidemiology Capacity in a One Health Team at the Provincial Level in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soawapak Hinjoy

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available A multi-sectoral core epidemiology capacity assessment was conducted in provinces that implemented One Health services in order to assess the efficacy of a One Health approach in Thailand. In order to conduct the assessment, four provinces were randomly selected as a study group from a total of 19 Thai provinces that are currently using a One Health approach. As a control group, four additional provinces that never implemented a One Health approach were also sampled. The provincial officers were interviewed on the epidemiologic capacity of their respective provinces. The average score of epidemiologic capacity in the provinces implementing the One Health approach was 66.45%, while the provinces that did not implement this approach earned a score of 54.61%. The epidemiologic capacity of surveillance systems in provinces that utilized the One Health approach earned higher scores in comparison to provinces that did not implement the approach (75.00% vs. 53.13%, p-value 0.13. Although none of the capacity evaluations showed significant differences between the two groups, we found evidence that provinces implementing the One Health approach gained higher scores in both surveillance and outbreak investigation capacities. This may be explained by more efficient capacity when using a One Health approach, specifically in preventing, protecting, and responding to threats in local communities.

  19. Development of a non-expert risk assessment method for hand-arm related tasks (HARM)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Douwes, M.; Kraker, H. de

    2014-01-01

    To support health and safety practitioners in their obligation of risk assessment the 'Hand Arm Risk Assessment Method' (HARM) was developed. This tool can be used by any type of company for risk assessment of developing arm, neck or shoulders symptoms (pain) resulting from light manual tasks.This

  20. Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    d'Alquen Daniela

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1 develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2 evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3 explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. Methods The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. Results A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p Conclusions The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness.

  1. Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography: a national needs assessment of competencies for general and expert practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischer, Lisa M; Woo, Michael Y; Lee, A Curtis; Wiss, Ray; Socransky, Steve; Frank, Jason R

    2015-01-01

    Emergency medicine point-of-care ultrasonography (EM-PoCUS) is a core competency for residents in the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and College of Family Physicians of Canada emergency medicine (EM) training programs. Although EM-PoCUS fellowships are currently offered in Canada, there is little consensus regarding what training should be included in a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship curriculum or how this contrasts with the training received in an EM residency.Objectives To conduct a systematic needs assessment of major stakeholders to define the essential elements necessary for a Canadian EM-PoCUS fellowship training curriculum. We carried out a national survey of experts in EM-PoCUS, EM residency program directors, and EM residents. Respondents were asked to identify competencies deemed either nonessential to EM practice, essential for general EM practice, essential for advanced EM practice, or essential for EM-PoCUS fellowship trained (‘‘expert’’) practice. The response rate was 81% (351 of 435). PoCUS was deemed essential to general EM practice for basic cardiac, aortic, trauma, and procedural imaging. PoCUS was deemed essential to advanced EM practice in undifferentiated symptomatology, advanced chest pathologies, and advanced procedural applications. Expert-level PoCUS competencies were identified for administrative, pediatric, and advanced gynecologic applications. Eighty-seven percent of respondents indicated that there was a need for EM-PoCUS fellowships, with an ideal length of 6 months. This is the first needs assessment of major stakeholders in Canada to identify competencies for expert training in EM-PoCUS. The competencies should form the basis for EM-PoCUS fellowship programs in Canada.

  2. Conceptual and Ethical Problems in the Mental Capacity Act 2005: An Interrogation of the Assessment Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Gibson

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Central to the Mental Capacity Act 2005 (MCA is the claim that a conferral of incapacity may not be based on the wisdom of a decision alone. This paper problematizes this position. Values-based medicine is drawn on to explore the process of capacity assessment, highlighting the presence of preconceptions throughout assessment. Two cases before the Court of Protection are examined to bring into focus the complexity of conducting assessment without reference to wisdom. The paper proposes that every stage in the assessment of capacity is undertaken with reference to preconceptions and that an acknowledgement of these, along with transparency about when they are to be employed, would allow for greater clarity about what the MCA demands of practitioners.

  3. [Psychometric assessment of defense mechanisms: correlation between questionnaire and expert rating. Initial study of validity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reister, G; Fellhauer, R F; Franz, M; Wirth, T; Schellberg, D; Schepank, H; Tress, W

    1993-01-01

    Within the limits of an epidemiological longitudinal field survey on prevalence and course of psychogenic disorders a high-risk-population suffering from medical psychogenic impairment was investigated. The study was conducted in order to verify an etiological multi-level-model of psychogenic disorders in relation to the socialempiric variables "critical life events" and "social support" as well as the depth psychological oriented construct "personality". Besides other instruments a self rating scale based on Vallant's hierarchical model of defense, i.e. the german adaptation of the DSQ (Defense Style Questionnaire) of Bond and coworkers, was used for the accurate measurement of relevant personality parameters. Although defense processes predominantly work unconscious, manifestations of defense mechanisms could be measured indirectly by means of the rating scale. Its essential dimensions separated clinical patients from a group of healthy controls. Furthermore an immature organisation of defense was found to be related to psychogenic impairment. Concerning self- and expert-rating a significant correlation between "immature defense" and the defense mechanisms "schizoid phantasy", "projection" and "acting out" was proved.

  4. Heart Health Risk Assessment System: A Nonintrusive Proposal Using Ontologies and Expert Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa Garcia-Valverde

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available According to the World Health Organization, the world’s leading cause of death is heart disease, with nearly two million deaths per year. Although some factors are not possible to change, there are some keys that help to prevent heart diseases. One of the most important keys is to keep an active daily life, with moderate exercise. However, deciding what a moderate exercise is or when a slightly abnormal heart rate value is a risk depends on the person and the activity. In this paper we propose a context-aware system that is able to determine the activity the person is performing in an unobtrusive way. Then, we have defined ontology to represent the available knowledge about the person (biometric data, fitness status, medical information, etc. and her current activity (level of intensity, heart rate recommended for that activity, etc.. With such knowledge, a set of expert rules based on this ontology are involved in a reasoning process to infer levels of alerts or suggestions for the users when the intensity of the activity is detected as dangerous for her health. We show how this approach can be accomplished by using only everyday devices such as a smartphone and a smartwatch.

  5. Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benjamin W. Abbott,; Jeremy B. Jones,; Edward A.G. Schuur,; F.S. Chapin, III; Bowden, William B.; M. Syndonia Bret-Harte,; Howard E. Epstein,; Michael D. Flannigan,; Tamara K. Harms,; Teresa N. Hollingsworth,; Mack, Michelle C.; McGuire, A. David; Susan M. Natali,; Adrian V. Rocha,; Tank, Suzanne E.; Merrit R. Turetsky,; Jorien E. Vonk,; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Aiken, George R.

    2016-01-01

    As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced.

  6. The development and implementation of a decision-making capacity assessment model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parmar, Jasneet; Brémault-Phillips, Suzette; Charles, Lesley

    2015-03-01

    Decision-making capacity assessment (DMCA) is an issue of increasing importance for older adults. Current challenges need to be explored, and potential processes and strategies considered in order to address issues of DMCA in a more coordinated manner. An iterative process was used to address issues related to DMCA. This began with recognition of challenges associated with capacity assessments (CAs) by staff at Covenant Health (CH). Review of the literature, as well as discussions with and a survey of staff at three CH sites, resulted in determination of issues related to DMCA. Development of a DMCA Model and demonstration of its feasibility followed. A process was proposed with front-end screening/problem- solving, a well-defined standard assessment, and definition of team member roles. A Capacity Assessment Care Map was formulated based on the process. Documentation was developed consisting of a Capacity Assessment Process Worksheet, Capacity Interview Worksheet, and a brochure. Interactive workshops were delivered to familiarize staff with the DMCA Model. A successful demonstration project led to implementation across all sites in the Capital Health region, and eventual provincial endorsement. Concerns identified in the survey and in the literature regarding CA were addressed through the holistic interdisciplinary approach offered by the DMCA Model.

  7. Pharmacokinetics and expert systems as aids for risk assessment in reproductive toxicology.

    OpenAIRE

    Mattison, D R; Jelovsek, F R

    1987-01-01

    A minimal approach to risk assessment in reproductive toxicology involves four components: hazard identification, hazard characterization, exposure characterization, and risk characterization. In practice, risk assessment in reproductive toxicology has been reduced to arbitrary safety factors or mathematical models of the dose-response relationship. These approaches obscure biological differences across species rather than using this important and frequently accessible information. Two approa...

  8. EXPERT SYSTEMS

    OpenAIRE

    Georgiana Marin; Mihai Catalin Andrei

    2011-01-01

    In recent decades IT and computer systems have evolved rapidly in economic informatics field. The goal is to create user friendly information systems that respond promptly and accurately to requests. Informatics systems evolved into decision assisted systems, and such systems are converted, based on gained experience, in expert systems for creative problem solving that an organization is facing. Expert systems are aimed at rebuilding human reasoning on the expertise obtained from experts, sto...

  9. Expert System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hildebrandt, Thomas Troels; Cattani, Gian Luca

    2016-01-01

    An expert system is a computer system for inferring knowledge from a knowledge base, typically by using a set of inference rules. When the concept of expert systems was introduced at Stanford University in the early 1970s, the knowledge base was an unstructured set of facts. Today the knowledge b...... for the application of expert systems, but also raises issues regarding privacy and legal liability....

  10. Have the consequences of reactor accidents for the population been well assessed? Six questions to the experts in the field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pohl, Peter

    2016-07-15

    Six questions to the experts in the field are posed: (1) Why is the assessment of accident consequences not separated in long-term and peak exposure? (2) Why is the exposure due to I-131 seen critical mainly in regard to the thyroid? (3) Do you have any reliable relations of health risk versus peak exposure? (4) Why do you not abolish the LNT assumption and replace it with a threshold model? (5) Why do you include indirect, psycho-somatic effects in assessing the consequences of reactor accidents when this is not customary with accidents with often more casualties? (6) How can the number of Chernobyl-assigned thyroid cancers have risen from some 600 about to some 4,000 today, when the latency period is in the range of 4 to 5 years?.

  11. IAEA OSART/EXPERT follow-up review mission completes assessment of actions taken by Paks Nuclear Power Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    On 28 February 2004 the IAEA completed its follow-up review mission to assess the actions taken by Paks nuclear power plant (NPP) in response to the Agency's recommendations and suggestions made during the 2001 Operational Safety Review Team (OSART) mission and the 2003 Expert mission that investigated the fuel cleaning incident at the Paks NPP in Hungary. The mission was requested by the Hungarian Government to provide an independent assessment of the actions taken by Paks NPP. The IAEA team determined that the actions taken by Paks have resulted in tangible progress and concluded that all issues were either fully resolved or progressing satisfactorily. In a press conference, the team's conclusions in five areas were highlighted: management, Regulatory Oversight/Interface, operations and maintenance, including operating experience, radiation protection, emergency planning and preparedness, and transparency

  12. OECD/NEA expert group on uncertainty analysis for criticality safety assessment: Results of benchmark on sensitivity calculation (phase III)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ivanova, T.; Laville, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire IRSN, BP 17, 92262 Fontenay aux Roses (France); Dyrda, J. [Atomic Weapons Establishment AWE, Aldermaston, Reading, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom); Mennerdahl, D. [E Mennerdahl Systems EMS, Starvaegen 12, 18357 Taeby (Sweden); Golovko, Y.; Raskach, K.; Tsiboulia, A. [Inst. for Physics and Power Engineering IPPE, 1, Bondarenko sq., 249033 Obninsk (Russian Federation); Lee, G. S.; Woo, S. W. [Korea Inst. of Nuclear Safety KINS, 62 Gwahak-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-338 (Korea, Republic of); Bidaud, A.; Sabouri, P. [Laboratoire de Physique Subatomique et de Cosmologie LPSC, CNRS-IN2P3/UJF/INPG, Grenoble (France); Patel, A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States); Bledsoe, K.; Rearden, B. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory ORNL, M.S. 6170, P.O. Box 2008, Oak Ridge, TN 37831 (United States); Gulliford, J.; Michel-Sendis, F. [OECD/NEA, 12, Bd des Iles, 92130 Issy-les-Moulineaux (France)

    2012-07-01

    The sensitivities of the k{sub eff} eigenvalue to neutron cross sections have become commonly used in similarity studies and as part of the validation algorithm for criticality safety assessments. To test calculations of the sensitivity coefficients, a benchmark study (Phase III) has been established by the OECD-NEA/WPNCS/EG UACSA (Expert Group on Uncertainty Analysis for Criticality Safety Assessment). This paper presents some sensitivity results generated by the benchmark participants using various computational tools based upon different computational methods: SCALE/TSUNAMI-3D and -1D, MONK, APOLLO2-MORET 5, DRAGON-SUSD3D and MMKKENO. The study demonstrates the performance of the tools. It also illustrates how model simplifications impact the sensitivity results and demonstrates the importance of 'implicit' (self-shielding) sensitivities. This work has been a useful step towards verification of the existing and developed sensitivity analysis methods. (authors)

  13. Assessing the Economics of Dengue: Results from a Systematic Review of the Literature and Expert Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constenla, Dagna; Garcia, Cristina; Lefcourt, Noah

    2015-11-01

    The economics of dengue is complex and multifaceted. We performed a systematic review of the literature to provide a critical overview of the issues related to dengue economics research and to form a background with which to address the question of cost. Three literature databases were searched [PubMed, Embase and Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS)], covering a period from 1980 to 2013, to identify papers meeting preset inclusion criteria. Studies were reviewed for methodological quality on the basis of a quality checklist developed for this purpose. An expert survey was designed to identify priority areas in dengue economics research and to identify gaps between the methodology and actual practice. Survey responses were combined with the literature review findings to determine stakeholder priorities in dengue economics research. The review identified over 700 papers. Forty-two of these papers met the selection criteria. The studies that were reviewed presented results from 32 dengue-endemic countries, underscoring the importance of dengue as a global public health problem. Cost analyses were the most common, with 21 papers, followed by nine cost-effectiveness analyses and seven cost-of-illness studies, indicating a relatively strong mix of methodologies. Dengue annual overall costs (in 2010 values) ranged from US$13.5 million (in Nicaragua) to $56 million (in Malaysia), showing cost variations across countries. Little consistency exists in the way costs were estimated and dengue interventions evaluated, making generalizations around costs difficult. The current evidence suggests that dengue costs are substantial because of the cost of hospital care and lost earnings. Further research in this area will broaden our understanding of the true economic impact of dengue.

  14. FLIGHT EXPERT RISK ASSESSMENT OF AIRCRAFT GROUP AT THEIR PROXIMITY USING A PROGRAM-MANAGER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Mikhaylin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents an approach to solving the problem of aircraft flight safety. External threats in the form of aircraft-offenders are considered. The algorithm of collision danger coefficients with aircraft-offenders is presented, оn the basis of which the side-program manager of flight safety monitoring is formed.Two danger coefficients in the horizontal and vertical planes are introduced. Based on various flight situations four possible decisions are offered: absence of any aircraft activity, flight level change, deviation in the horizontal plane and both in vertical and horizontal planes. For each case the formulas of double evaluation are received. They take into account different parameters of aircraft relative motion. Based on these estimates it is possible to build a final expert evaluation for the considered flight situations. It is implemented in the onboard program-manager. The structure of the program is presented. At the program-manager output the expected minimized risk evaluation and the selected alternative of the avoidance of aircraft from the meeting point are formed. The paper presents a detailed description of the procedures to test the performance of the program-manager algorithms. The initial conditions for different flight situations are provided. The simulation results of the algorithm are given. The danger coefficients comparison when performing maneuvers to prevent dangerous approach and in their absence is illustrated. It is shown that the maneuver implementation recommended by program-manager algorithms decreases the resulting danger coefficient. Particular attention was paid to aircraft landing, especially if the landing area had several conflicting aircraft.

  15. Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stroma invasion in women with endometrial cancer -interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksson, LS; Lindqvist, PG; Flöter Rådestad, A

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynaecologists in the prediction of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion by transvaginal ultrasound in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: Video-clips of the corpus- and cervix uteri of 53 women...... with endometrial cancer, examined preoperatively by the same ultrasound expert, were integrated in a digitalized survey. Nine ultrasound experts and 9 gynaecologists evaluated presence or absence of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion. Histopathology from hysterectomy specimen was used as gold standard.......001). CONCLUSION: Preoperative ultrasound assessment of deep myometrial- and cervical stroma invasion in endometrial cancer is best performed by ultrasound experts, as they show a higher degree of agreement to histopathology and higher interobserver reproducibility in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion....

  16. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne B; Beever, Erik A; Robertson, Amanda L; Hofmann, Gretchen E; O'Leary, John

    2015-10-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions. © 2015 Society for

  17. Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicotra, Adrienne; Beever, Erik; Robertson, Amanda; Hofmann, Gretchen; O’Leary, John

    2015-01-01

    Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

  18. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging-Statement from an Expert Workshop

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peter, Szabolcs; Saris, Wim H. M.; Mathers, John C.; Feskens, Edith; Schols, Annemie; Navis, Gerjan; Kuipers, Folkert; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

    2015-01-01

    A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient

  19. Methods for the elicitation and use of expert opinion in risk assessment: Phase 1, A critical evaluation and directions for future research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mosleh, A.; Bier, V.M.; Apostolakis, G.

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this work is to critically review and evaluate the elicitation and use of expert opinion in probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in light of the available empirical and theoretical results on expert opinion use. PRA practice is represented by five case studies selected to represent a variety of aspects of the problem: assessments of component failure rates and maintenance data; recent assessments of seismic hazard rates; assessments of containment phenomenology; assessments of human error rates; and accident precursor studies. The review has yielded mixed results. On the negative side, there appears to be little reliance on normative expertise in structuring the process of expert opinion elicitation and use; most applications instead rely primarily on the common sense of the experts involved in the analysis, which is not always an adequate guide. On the positive side, however, there is evidence that expert opinions can in fact be used well in practical settings. Suggestions are given for Phase II work to enhance the applicability and use of appropriate expert opinion methods

  20. PNW cetacean muscle biochemistry - Muscle Myoglobin Content and Acid Buffering Capacity of Cetaceans from the Pacific Northwest to Assess Dive Capacity and the Development of Diving Capabilities

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This project assesses the development of two important skeletal muscle adaptations for diving (enhanced myoglobin content and acid buffering capacities) in a range...

  1. Looking beyond the forest: Using harvest plots, gap analysis, and expert consultations to assess effectiveness, engage stakeholders, and inform policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, J; Polus, S; Brereton, L; Chilcott, J; Ward, S E; Pfadenhauer, L M; Rehfuess, E A

    2018-03-01

    We describe a combination of methods for assessing the effectiveness of complex interventions, especially where substantial heterogeneity with regard to the population, intervention, comparison, outcomes, and study design of interest is expected. We applied these methods in a recent systematic review of the effectiveness of reinforced home-based palliative care (rHBPC) interventions, which included home-based care with an additional and explicit component of lay caregiver support. We first summarized the identified evidence, deemed inappropriate for statistical pooling, graphically by creating harvest plots. Although very useful as a tool for summary and presentation of overall effectiveness, such graphical summary approaches may obscure relevant differences between studies. Thus, we then used a gap analysis and conducted expert consultations to look beyond the aggregate level at how the identified evidence of effectiveness may be explained. The goal of these supplemental methods was to step outside of the conventional systematic review and explore this heterogeneity from a broader perspective, based on the experience of palliative care researchers and practitioners. The gap analysis and expert consultations provided valuable input into possible underlying explanations in the evidence, which could be helpful in the further adaptation and testing of existing rHBPC interventions or the development and evaluation of new ones. We feel that such a combination of methods could prove accessible, understandable, and useful in informing decisions and could thus help increase the relevance of systematic reviews to the decision-making process. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Assessing the risk of pesticide environmental impact in several Argentinian cropping systems with a fuzzy expert indicator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arregui, María C; Sánchez, Daniel; Althaus, Rafael; Scotta, Roberto R; Bertolaccini, Isabel

    2010-07-01

    The introduction of transgenic soybean (Glycine max, L.) varieties resistant to glyphosate (GR soybeans) has rapidly expanded in Argentina, increasing pesticide use where only grasslands were previously cultivated. The authors compared an estimate of environmental risk for different crops and active ingredients using the IPEST index, which is based on a fuzzy-logic expert system. For IPEST calculations, four modules are defined, one reflecting the rate of application, the other three reflecting the risk for groundwater, surface water and air. The input variables are pesticide properties, site-specific conditions and characteristics of the pesticide application. The expert system calculates the value of modules according to the degree of membership of the input variables to the fuzzy subsets F (favourable) and U (unfavourable), and they can be aggregated following sets of decision rules. IPEST integrated values of >or= 7 reflect low environmental risk, and values of environmental contamination, and they are mainly used in maize. Groundwater was the most affected compartment. Fuzzy logic provided an easy tool combining different environmental components with pesticide properties to give a simple and accessible risk assessment. These findings provide information about active ingredients that should be replaced in order to protect water and air from pesticide contamination. Copyright (c) 2010 Society of Chemical Industry.

  3. Where do uncertainties reside within environmental risk assessments? Expert opinion on uncertainty distributions for pesticide risks to surface water organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Daniel J C; Rocks, Sophie A; Pollard, Simon J T

    2016-12-01

    A reliable characterisation of uncertainties can aid uncertainty identification during environmental risk assessments (ERAs). However, typologies can be implemented inconsistently, causing uncertainties to go unidentified. We present an approach based on nine structured elicitations, in which subject-matter experts, for pesticide risks to surface water organisms, validate and assess three dimensions of uncertainty: its level (the severity of uncertainty, ranging from determinism to ignorance); nature (whether the uncertainty is epistemic or aleatory); and location (the data source or area in which the uncertainty arises). Risk characterisation contains the highest median levels of uncertainty, associated with estimating, aggregating and evaluating the magnitude of risks. Regarding the locations in which uncertainty is manifest, data uncertainty is dominant in problem formulation, exposure assessment and effects assessment. The comprehensive description of uncertainty described will enable risk analysts to prioritise the required phases, groups of tasks, or individual tasks within a risk analysis according to the highest levels of uncertainty, the potential for uncertainty to be reduced or quantified, or the types of location-based uncertainty, thus aiding uncertainty prioritisation during environmental risk assessments. In turn, it is expected to inform investment in uncertainty reduction or targeted risk management action. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Expert ease

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1984-04-01

    Expert-ease allows the most inexperienced of computer users to build an expert system in a matter of hours. It is nothing more or less than a computer based problem-solving system. It allows the expert to preserve his or her knowledge in the form of rules, which can be applied to problems put to the system by the non-expert. The crucial piece of software at the heart of Expert-Ease extracts rules from data, and is called the analogue concept learning system. It was developed by Intelligent Terminals Ltd. and supplied to Export Software International to be incorporated into a commercially attractive package for business users. The resulting product runs on the Act Sirius and the IBM PC and compatibles. It is a well conceived and polished product with a popular appeal that should ensure widespread acceptance even at a cost of >1500 plus vat.

  5. Welfare assessment of laying hens in furnished cages and non-cage systems: assimilating expert opinion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodenburg, T.B.; Tuyttens, F.; Reu, de K.; Herman, L.; Zoons, J.; Sonck, B.

    2008-01-01

    It is extremely difficult to carry out an assessment of welfare in an entirely objective manner. The choice of welfare indicators, as well as the assignment of relative weightings to these indicators, both involve a certain degree of subjectivity. The aim of this study was to create a possible

  6. Expert Workshop Assesses the Significance of Birth Location on Maternal and Infant Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Gordon, Wendy

    2013-01-01

    On March 6–7, 2013, some of the greatest minds in research and the provision of maternity care came together for a workshop on “Research Issues in the Assessment of Birth Settings,” hosted by the prestigious Institute of Medicine (IOM) and sponsored by the W.K. Kellogg Foundation.

  7. Assessment of the Sustainability Capacity of a Coordinated Approach to Chronic Disease Prevention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Combs, Todd; Polk, LaShaun; Dexter, Sarah

    2017-12-07

    This article outlines some factors that influenced the sustainability capacity of a coordinated approach to chronic disease prevention in state and territory health departments. This study involved a cross-sectional design and mixed-methods approach. Quantitative data were collected using the Program Sustainability Assessment Tool (PSAT), a 40-item multiple-choice instrument that assesses 8 domains of sustainability capacity (environmental support, funding stability, partnerships, organizational capacity, program evaluation, program adaptation, communications, and strategic planning). Qualitative data were collected via phone interviews. The PSAT was administered to staff and stakeholders from public health departments in 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico, who were involved in the implementation of coordinated chronic disease programs. Phone interviews were conducted with program coordinators in each state. Sustainability score patterns and state-level categorical results, as well as strengths and opportunities for improvement across the 8 program sustainability domains, were explored. On average, programs reported the strongest sustainability capacity in the domains of program adaptation, environmental support, and organizational capacity, while funding stability, strategic planning, and communications yielded lowest scores, indicating weakest capacity. Scores varied the most by state in environmental support and strategic planning. The PSAT results highlight the process through which states approached the sustainability of coordinated chronic disease initiatives. This process included an initial focus on program evaluation and partnerships with transfer of priority to long-term strategic planning, communications, and funding stability to further establish coordinated chronic disease efforts. Qualitative interviews provided further context to PSAT results, indicating that leadership, communications, partnerships, funding stability, and policy

  8. Quantitative safety assessment of air traffic control systems through system control capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jingjing

    Quantitative Safety Assessments (QSA) are essential to safety benefit verification and regulations of developmental changes in safety critical systems like the Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems. Effectiveness of the assessments is particularly desirable today in the safe implementations of revolutionary ATC overhauls like NextGen and SESAR. QSA of ATC systems are however challenged by system complexity and lack of accident data. Extending from the idea "safety is a control problem" in the literature, this research proposes to assess system safety from the control perspective, through quantifying a system's "control capacity". A system's safety performance correlates to this "control capacity" in the control of "safety critical processes". To examine this idea in QSA of the ATC systems, a Control-capacity Based Safety Assessment Framework (CBSAF) is developed which includes two control capacity metrics and a procedural method. The two metrics are Probabilistic System Control-capacity (PSC) and Temporal System Control-capacity (TSC); each addresses an aspect of a system's control capacity. And the procedural method consists three general stages: I) identification of safety critical processes, II) development of system control models and III) evaluation of system control capacity. The CBSAF was tested in two case studies. The first one assesses an en-route collision avoidance scenario and compares three hypothetical configurations. The CBSAF was able to capture the uncoordinated behavior between two means of control, as was observed in a historic midair collision accident. The second case study compares CBSAF with an existing risk based QSA method in assessing the safety benefits of introducing a runway incursion alert system. Similar conclusions are reached between the two methods, while the CBSAF has the advantage of simplicity and provides a new control-based perspective and interpretation to the assessments. The case studies are intended to investigate the

  9. Assessing Capacity of Faith-Based Organizations for Health Promotion Activities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tagai, Erin Kelly; Scheirer, Mary Ann; Santos, Sherie Lou Z; Haider, Muhiuddin; Bowie, Janice; Slade, Jimmie; Whitehead, Tony L; Wang, Min Qi; Holt, Cheryl L

    2017-10-01

    Faith-based organizations (FBOs) are important venues for health promotion, particularly in medically underserved communities. These organizations vary considerably in their structural capacities, which may be linked to variability in implementation success for health promotion initiatives. Lacking an existing validated assessment of organizational capacity specific to FBOs, an initial prototype assessment was developed. The Faith-Based Organization Capacity Inventory (FBO-CI) assesses three structural areas of capacity: Staffing and Space, Health Promotion Experience, and External Collaboration. The multidisciplinary team, including FBO leaders, codeveloped the initial instrument. The initial reliability from a convenience sample of 34 African American churches including descriptions of FBOs representing three capacity levels is reported. The FBO-CI demonstrated feasibility of administration using an in-person interview format, and the three subscales had acceptable internal reliability (α ~ .70). Most churches had an established health ministry (n = 23) and had conducted activities across an average of seven health areas in the previous 2 years. This initial FBO-CI prototype is promising, and future work should consider validation with a larger sample of churches and domain expansion based on the conceptual model. The FBO-CI has a number of potential uses for researchers, FBO leaders, and practitioners working with FBOs in health promotion initiatives.

  10. Assessing socioeconomic vulnerability to dengue fever in Cali, Colombia: statistical vs expert-based modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Hagenlocher, Michael; Delmelle, Eric; Casas, Irene; Kienberger, Stefan

    2013-01-01

    Background As a result of changes in climatic conditions and greater resistance to insecticides, many regions across the globe, including Colombia, have been facing a resurgence of vector-borne diseases, and dengue fever in particular. Timely information on both (1) the spatial distribution of the disease, and (2) prevailing vulnerabilities of the population are needed to adequately plan targeted preventive intervention. We propose a methodology for the spatial assessment of current socioecon...

  11. Final report of the Cosmetic Ingredient Review Expert Panel amended safety assessment of Calendula officinalis-derived cosmetic ingredients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, F Alan; Bergfeld, Wilma F; Belsito, Donald V; Hill, Ronald A; Klaassen, Curtis D; Liebler, Daniel C; Marks, James G; Shank, Ronald C; Slaga, Thomas J; Snyder, Paul W

    2010-01-01

    Calendula officinalis extract, C officinalis flower, C officinalis flower extract, C officinalis flower oil, and C officinalis seed oil are cosmetic ingredients derived from C officinalis. These ingredients may contain minerals, carbohydrates, lipids, phenolic acids, flavonoids, tannins, coumarins, sterols and steroids, monoterpenes, sesquiterpenes, triterpenes, tocopherols, quinones, amino acids, and resins. These ingredients were not significantly toxic in single-dose oral studies using animals. The absence of reproductive/developmental toxicity was inferred from repeat-dose studies of coriander oil, with a similar composition. Overall, these ingredients were not genotoxic. They also were not irritating, sensitizing, or photosensitizing in animal or clinical tests but may be mild ocular irritants. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel concluded that these ingredients are safe for use in cosmetics in the practices of use and concentration given in this amended safety assessment.

  12. Use of satiety peptides in assessing the satiating capacity of foods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mars, M.; Stafleu, A.; Graaf, de C.

    2012-01-01

    Foods differ in their satiating capacity. Satiety peptides may help to provide evidence for biological mechanisms behind these differences. The aim of this paper was to discuss the physiological relevance of three individual appetite peptides, i.e. CCK, GLP-1 and PYY, in assessing the satiating

  13. Assessment of the capacity of slow sand filtration to eliminate Cryptosporidium oocysts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hijnen, W.A.M.; Dullemont, Y.J.; Bosklopper, K.T.G.J.; Schijven, J.F.; Medema, Gerriet Jan

    2006-01-01

    Decimal Elimination Capacity (DEC) of the slow sand filters of the Dutch drinking water Companies was assessed; first by literature review, followed by evaluation of the removal of environmental spores of sulphite-reducing clostridia (SSRC) and small-sized centric diatoms (SSCD) as surrogates.

  14. Assessment of Working Memory Capacity in Preschool Children Using the Missing Scan Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roman, Adrienne S.; Pisoni, David B.; Kronenberger, William G.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility and validity of a modified version of Buschke's missing scan methodology, the Missing Scan Task (MST), to assess working memory capacity (WMC) and cognitive control processes in preschool children 3-6?years in age. Forty typically developing monolingual English-speaking children between…

  15. An Organizational Development Framework for Assessing Readiness and Capacity for Expanding Online Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piña, Anthony A.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, a popular model for organizational development is utilized as a framework for assessing the organizational readiness and capacity of educational institutions whose leaders wish to establish or expand their online/distance education programs. Examples of institutionalization factors to consider and alternative models for assessing…

  16. IAEA Expert Team Completes Mission to Review Japan's Nuclear Power Plant Safety Assessment Process, 31 January 2012, Tokyo, Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    Full text: A team of international nuclear safety experts today completed a review of Japan's two-stage process for assessing nuclear safety at the nation's nuclear power plants. The team began its work on 23 January and delivered a Preliminary Summary Report to Japanese officials today and plans to finish the final report by the end of February. National safety assessments and their peer review by the IAEA are a key component of the IAEA's Action Plan on Nuclear Safety, which was approved by the Agency's 152 Member States following last year's nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. At the request of the Government of Japan, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) organized a 10-person team to review the Japanese Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency's (NISA) approach to the Comprehensive Assessments for the Safety of Existing Power Reactor Facilities and how NISA examines the results submitted by nuclear operators. The IAEA safety review mission consisted of five IAEA and three international nuclear safety experts. To help its review, the team held meetings in Tokyo with officials from NISA, the Japanese Nuclear Energy Safety (JNES) Organization, and the Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO), and the team visited the Ohi Nuclear Power Station to see an example of how Japan's Comprehensive Safety Assessment is being implemented by nuclear operators. 'We concluded that NISA's instructions to power plants and its review process for the Comprehensive Safety Assessments are generally consistent with IAEA Safety Standards', said team leader James Lyons, director of the IAEA's Nuclear Installation Safety Division. In its Preliminary Summary Report delivered today, the team highlighted a number of good practices and identified some improvements that would enhance the overall effectiveness of the Comprehensive Safety Assessment process. Good practices identified by the mission team include: Based on NISA instructions and commitments of the

  17. Response tree evaluation: experimental assessment of an expert system for nuclear reactor operators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nelson, W.R.; Blackman, H.S.

    1985-09-01

    The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC) sponsored a project performed by EG and G Idaho, Inc., at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) to evaluate different display concepts for use in nuclear reactor control rooms. Included in this project was the evaluation of the response tree computer-based decision aid and its associated displays. The response tree evaluation task was deisgned to (1) assess the merit of the response tree decision aid and (2) develop a technical basis for recommendations, guidelines, and criteria for the design and evaluation of computerized decision aids for use in reactor control rooms. Two major experiments have been conducted to evaluate the response tree system. This report emphasizes the conduct and results of the second experiment. An enhanced version of the response tree system, known as the automated response tree system, was used in a controlled experiment using trained reactor operators as test subjects. This report discusses the automated response tree system, the design of the evaluation experiment, and the quantitative results of the experiment. The results of the experiment are compared to the results of the previous experiment to provide an integrated perspective of the response tree evaluation project. In addition, a subjective assessment of the results addresses the implications for the use of advanced, ''intelligent'' decision aids in the reactor control room

  18. Empowerment impact assessment (EmpIA), a tool for poverty alleviation and capacity building

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Louw, MR

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available their quality of life. xrhombus Facilitate the upgrading of the social and physical environment. xrhombus Increase employment. xrhombus Reduce poverty. xrhombus Stimulate economic growth. xrhombus Reduce imbalances in access to economic opportunities. 1... IMPACT ASSESSMENT (EmpIA), A TOOL FOR POVERTY ALLEVIATION AND CAPACITY BUILDING M.R. LOUW CSIR Built Environment: Pretoria, P.O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001 ABSTRACT Empowerment impact assessment (EmpIA) is a quantitative...

  19. Study on Space Audit Assessment Criteria for Public Higher Education Institution in Malaysia: Space Capacity Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wan Hamdan Wan Samsul Zamani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to measure the capacity rate of learning space based on the as-built drawing provided by the institutions or if the as-built drawing is missing, the researcher have to prepare measured drawing as per actual on site. The learning space Capacity Index is developed by analyzing the space design in as-built drawing or measured drawing and the list of learning spaces available at the institution. The Capacity Index is classified according to the level of Usable Floor Area (UFA and Occupancy Load (OL according to learning space design capacity. The classification of Capacity Index is demonstrated through linguistic value and the color-coded key. From the said index, the institution can easily identify whether the existing learning space is currently best used or vice versa and standard space planning compliance in Malaysia Public Higher Education Institutions. The data will assist the management to clarify whether to maximize the use of existing space or to request for new learning space.

  20. Expert Witness

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adele

    formal rules of evidence apply) to help it understand the issues of a case and ... statements on medical expert witness by professional representative bodies in .... determining the size of the financial settlement that may have to be made to the.

  1. Integrating expert opinion with modelling for quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment in the Eastern Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lixia; van Westen, Cees J.; Hussin, Haydar; Ciurean, Roxana L.; Turkington, Thea; Chavarro-Rincon, Diana; Shrestha, Dhruba P.

    2016-11-01

    Extreme rainfall events are the main triggering causes for hydro-meteorological hazards in mountainous areas, where development is often constrained by the limited space suitable for construction. In these areas, hazard and risk assessments are fundamental for risk mitigation, especially for preventive planning, risk communication and emergency preparedness. Multi-hazard risk assessment in mountainous areas at local and regional scales remain a major challenge because of lack of data related to past events and causal factors, and the interactions between different types of hazards. The lack of data leads to a high level of uncertainty in the application of quantitative methods for hazard and risk assessment. Therefore, a systematic approach is required to combine these quantitative methods with expert-based assumptions and decisions. In this study, a quantitative multi-hazard risk assessment was carried out in the Fella River valley, prone to debris flows and flood in the north-eastern Italian Alps. The main steps include data collection and development of inventory maps, definition of hazard scenarios, hazard assessment in terms of temporal and spatial probability calculation and intensity modelling, elements-at-risk mapping, estimation of asset values and the number of people, physical vulnerability assessment, the generation of risk curves and annual risk calculation. To compare the risk for each type of hazard, risk curves were generated for debris flows, river floods and flash floods. Uncertainties were expressed as minimum, average and maximum values of temporal and spatial probability, replacement costs of assets, population numbers, and physical vulnerability. These result in minimum, average and maximum risk curves. To validate this approach, a back analysis was conducted using the extreme hydro-meteorological event that occurred in August 2003 in the Fella River valley. The results show a good performance when compared to the historical damage reports.

  2. Patient competence and professional incompetence: disagreements in capacity assessments in one Australian jurisdiction, and their educational implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Malcolm

    2008-08-01

    The determination of capacity to make medical, personal and financial decisions has significant individual and social implications. Medical and other health professionals are traditionally relied on by courts and tribunals to provide clinical and psychometric evidence of the presence or absence of capacity, or competence. Concern has long been expressed over the variability of these assessments. A survey of 285 decisions of the Queensland Guardianship and Assessment Tribunal (GAAT) between 2005 and 2008 was conducted to estimate the incidence of disagreement between health professionals in capacity assessments; to provide examples of conflicting assessments and models of assessment used; and to consider the educational implications of disagreements. While the final capacity determinations by the GAAT appear sound, this case series, and other studies in the capacity literature, strongly suggest the need to improve the education of health professionals, especially doctors, at undergraduate and postgraduate levels, in the practical assessment of capacity as a fundamental clinical skill.

  3. On the balanced blending of formally structured and simplified approaches for utilizing judgments of experts in the assessment of uncertain issues

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Kwang Il; Yang, Joon Eon; Ha, Jae Joo

    2003-01-01

    Expert judgment is frequently employed in the search for the solution to various engineering and decision-making problems where relevant data is not sufficient or where there is little consensus as to the correct models to apply. When expert judgments are required to solve the underlying problem, our main concern is how to formally derive their technical expertise and their personal degree of familiarity about the related questions. Formal methods for gathering judgments from experts and assessing the effects of the judgments on the results of the analysis have been developed in a variety of ways. The most important interest of such methods is to establish the robustness of an expert's knowledge upon which the elicitation of judgments is made and an effective trace of the elicitation process as possible as one can. While the resultant expert judgments can remain to a large extent substantiated with formal elicitation methods, their applicability however is often limited due to restriction of available resources (e.g., time, budget, and number of qualified experts, etc) as well as a scope of the analysis. For this reason, many engineering and decision-making problems have not always performed with a formal/structured pattern, but rather relied on a pertinent transition of the formal process to the simplified approach. The purpose of this paper is (a) to address some insights into the balanced use of formally structured and simplified approaches for the explicit use of expert judgments under resource constraints and (b) to discuss related decision-theoretic issues

  4. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging—Statement from an Expert Workshop

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Szabolcs Péter

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient status for health has been illustrated, in particular for elderly and specific patient groups. The nutrient profile of individuals can be connected to phenotypes, like hypertension or obesity, as well as to socio-economic data. This approach provides information on the relationship between nutrition (nutrient intake and status and health outcomes and, for instance, allows us to use the findings to communicate and advocate a healthy lifestyle. Nutrition is complex: a broader profile of nutrients should be considered rather than focusing solely on a single nutrient. Evaluating food patterns instead of intake of individual nutrients provides better insight into relationships between nutrition and health and disease. This approach would allow us to provide feedback to individuals about their status and ways to improve their nutritional habits. In addition, it would provide tools for scientists and health authorities to update and develop public health recommendations.

  5. Nutrient Status Assessment in Individuals and Populations for Healthy Aging-Statement from an Expert Workshop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Péter, Szabolcs; Saris, Wim H M; Mathers, John C; Feskens, Edith; Schols, Annemie; Navis, Gerjan; Kuipers, Folkert; Weber, Peter; Eggersdorfer, Manfred

    2015-12-16

    A workshop organized by the University Medical Center Groningen addressed various current issues regarding nutrient status of individuals and populations, tools and strategies for its assessment, and opportunities to intervene. The importance of nutrient deficiencies and information on nutrient status for health has been illustrated, in particular for elderly and specific patient groups. The nutrient profile of individuals can be connected to phenotypes, like hypertension or obesity, as well as to socio-economic data. This approach provides information on the relationship between nutrition (nutrient intake and status) and health outcomes and, for instance, allows us to use the findings to communicate and advocate a healthy lifestyle. Nutrition is complex: a broader profile of nutrients should be considered rather than focusing solely on a single nutrient. Evaluating food patterns instead of intake of individual nutrients provides better insight into relationships between nutrition and health and disease. This approach would allow us to provide feedback to individuals about their status and ways to improve their nutritional habits. In addition, it would provide tools for scientists and health authorities to update and develop public health recommendations.

  6. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain; [Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shrader-Frechette, K. [University of South Florida, Tampa, FL (United States)

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA`S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA`s done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA`s to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA`s include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain.

  7. Expert judgment in assessing radwaste risks: What Nevadans should know about Yucca Mountain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrader-Frechette, K.

    1992-06-01

    For phenomena characterized by accurate and largely complete data, quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides extraordinarily valuable and objective information. However, with phenomena for which the data, models, or probabilities are incomplete or uncertain, QRA may be less useful and more questionable, because its conclusions are typically empirically and theoretically underdetermined. In the face of empirical or theoretical underdetermination, scientists often are forced to make a number of methodological value judgments and inferences about how to estimate and evaluate the associated risks. The purpose of this project is to evaluate instances of methodological value judgments and invalid or imprecise inferences that have occurred in the QRA done for the proposed Yucca Mountain high-level radioactive waste facility. We shall show (1) that questionable methodological value judgments and inferences have occurred in some Yucca Mountain QRA'S; (2) that questionable judgments and inferences, similar to those in the Yucca Mountain studies, have occurred in previous QRA's done for other radiation-related facilities and have likely caused earlier QRA's to err in specific ways; and (3) that, because the value judgments and problems associated with some Yucca Mountain QRA's include repetitions of similar difficulties in earlier studies, therefore the QRA conclusions of some Yucca Mountain analyses are, at best, uncertain

  8. Seismic source zone characterization for the seismic hazard assessment project PEGASOS by the Expert Group 2 (EG1b)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhard, M.; Gruenthal, G.

    2009-01-01

    A comprehensive study of the seismic hazard related to the four NNP sites in NW Switzerland was performed within the project PEGASOS. To account for the epistemic uncertainties involved in the process of the characterization of seismic source zones in the frame of probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, four different expert teams have developed and defended their models in the frame of an intensive elicitation process. Here, the results of one out of four expert groups are presented. The model of this team is based first of all on considerations regarding the large scale tectonics in the context of the Alpine collision, and neotectonic constraints for defining seismic source zones. This leads to a large scale subdivision based on the structural 'architectural' considerations with little input from the present seismicity. Each of the eight large zones was characterized by the style of present-day faulting, fault orientation, and hypo central depth distribution. A further subdivision of the larger zones is performed based on information provided by the seismicity patterns. 58 small source zones have been defined in this way, each of them characterized by the available tectonic constrains, as well as the pros and cons of different existing geologic views connected to them. Of special concern in this respect were the discussion regarding thin skinned vs. thick skinned tectonics, the tectonic origin of the 1356 Basel earthquake, the role of the Permo-Carboniferous graben structures, and finally the seismogenic orientation of faults with respect to the recent crustal stress field. The uncertainties connected to the delimitations of the small source zones have been handled in form of their regrouping, formalized by the logic tree technique. The maximum magnitudes were estimated as discretized probability distribution functions. After de-clustering the used ECOS earthquake catalogue and an analysis of data completeness as a function of time the parameters of the

  9. GIS Fuzzy Expert System for the assessment of ecosystems vulnerability to fire in managing Mediterranean natural protected areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semeraro, Teodoro; Mastroleo, Giovanni; Aretano, Roberta; Facchinetti, Gisella; Zurlini, Giovanni; Petrosillo, Irene

    2016-03-01

    A significant threat to the natural and cultural heritage of Mediterranean natural protected areas (NPAs) is related to uncontrolled fires that can cause potential damages related to the loss or a reduction of ecosystems. The assessment and mapping of the vulnerability to fire can be useful to reduce landscape damages and to establish priority areas where it is necessary to plan measures to reduce the fire vulnerability. To this aim, a methodology based on an interactive computer-based system has been proposed in order to support NPA's management authority for the identification of vulnerable hotspots to fire through the selection of suitable indicators that allow discriminating different levels of sensitivity (e.g. Habitat relevance, Fragmentation, Fire behavior, Ecosystem Services, Vegetation recovery after fire) and stresses (agriculture, tourism, urbanization). In particular, a multi-criteria analysis based on Fuzzy Expert System (FES) integrated in a GIS environment has been developed in order to identify and map potential "hotspots" of fire vulnerability, where fire protection measures can be undertaken in advance. In order to test the effectiveness of this approach, this approach has been applied to the NPA of Torre Guaceto (Apulia Region, southern Italy). The most fire vulnerable areas are the patch of century-old forest characterized by high sensitivity and stress, and the wetlands and century-old olive groves due to their high sensitivity. The GIS fuzzy expert system provides evidence of its potential usefulness for the effective management of natural protected areas and can help conservation managers to plan and intervene in order to mitigate the fire vulnerability in accordance with conservation goals. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fredouille, Corinne; Pouchoulin, Gilles; Ghio, Alain; Revis, Joana; Bonastre, Jean-François; Giovanni, Antoine

    2009-12-01

    This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists). The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices), rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0-3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

  11. Back-and-Forth Methodology for Objective Voice Quality Assessment: From/to Expert Knowledge to/from Automatic Classification of Dysphonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corinne Fredouille

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses voice disorder assessment. It proposes an original back-and-forth methodology involving an automatic classification system as well as knowledge of the human experts (machine learning experts, phoneticians, and pathologists. The goal of this methodology is to bring a better understanding of acoustic phenomena related to dysphonia. The automatic system was validated on a dysphonic corpus (80 female voices, rated according to the GRBAS perceptual scale by an expert jury. Firstly, focused on the frequency domain, the classification system showed the interest of 0–3000 Hz frequency band for the classification task based on the GRBAS scale. Later, an automatic phonemic analysis underlined the significance of consonants and more surprisingly of unvoiced consonants for the same classification task. Submitted to the human experts, these observations led to a manual analysis of unvoiced plosives, which highlighted a lengthening of VOT according to the dysphonia severity validated by a preliminary statistical analysis.

  12. An Expert System Solution for the Quantitative Condition Assessment of Electrical Distribution Systems in the United States Air Force

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-09-01

    Distribution system ... ......... 4 2. Architechture of an Expert system .. .............. 66 vi List of Tables Table Page 1. Prototype Component Model...expert system to properly process work requests Ln civil engineering (8:23). Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). EPRI is a private organization ...used (51) Training Level. The level of training shop technicians receive, and the resulting proficiency, are important in all organizations . Experts 1

  13. A Tool for Assessing Future Capacity Loss Due to Sedimentation in the United States' Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinson, A. O.; Baker, B.; White, K. D.

    2017-12-01

    Federal reservoirs are critical components of the United States' water supply, flood risk management, hydropower and navigation infrastructure. These reservoirs included capacity for storage loss due to the deposition of sediment by inflowing streams in their original design. However, the actual rate of capacity loss experienced is controlled in part by climate, topography, soils, and land use/land cover, and may vary from the design. To assess the current and future vulnerability of its reservoirs to sedimentation. USACE has developed an online planning tool to identify USACE reservoirs where sedimentation is currently a problem (e.g., sedimentation rate exceeds design sedimentation rate, or zone losses disproportionately affect authorized purposes), and reservoirs where rates are expected to increase significantly in the future. The goal is to be able to prioritize operation and maintenance actions to minimize the effects of reservoir capacity loss on authorized purposes and help maximize reservoir use life.

  14. Evaluating Presence Data versus Expert Opinions to Assess Occurrence, Habitat Preferences and Landscape Permeability: A Case Study of Butterflies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Arfan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI. Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

  15. Building and measuring infrastructure and capacity for community health assessment and health improvement planning in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abarca, Christine; Grigg, C Meade; Steele, Jo Ann; Osgood, Laurie; Keating, Heidi

    2009-01-01

    COMPASS (Comprehensive Assessment, Strategic Success) is the Florida Department of Health's community health assessment and health improvement planning initiative. Since 2002, COMPASS built state and county health department infrastructure to support a comprehensive, systematic, and integrated approach to community health assessment and planning. To assess the capacity of Florida's 67 county health departments (CHDs) to conduct community health assessment and planning and to identify training and technical assistance needs, COMPASS surveyed the CHDs using a Web-based instrument annually from 2004 through 2008. Response rate to the survey was 100 percent annually. In 2007, 96 percent of CHDs reported conducting assessment and planning within the past 3 years; 74 percent used the MAPP (Mobilizing for Action through Planning and Partnerships) framework. Progress was greater for the organizational and assessment phases of the MAPP-based work; only 10 CHDs had identified strategic priorities in 2007, and even fewer had implemented strategies for improving health. In 2007, the most frequently requested types of training were measuring success, developing goals and action plans, and using qualitative data; technical assistance was most frequently requested for program evaluation and writing community health status reports. Florida's CHDs have increased their capacity to conduct community health assessment and planning. Questions remain about sustaining these gains with limited resources.

  16. The electricity generation adequacy problem: Assessing dynamic effects of capacity remuneration mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hary, Nicolas; Rious, Vincent; Saguan, Marcelo

    2016-01-01

    Following liberalization reforms, the ability of power markets to provide satisfactory incentives for capacity investments has become a major concern. In particular, current energy markets can exhibit a phenomenon of investment cycles, which generate phases of under and over-capacity, and hence additional costs and risks for generation adequacy. To cope with these issues, new mechanisms, called capacity remuneration mechanisms (CRM), have been (or will be) implemented. This paper assesses the dynamic effects of two CRMs, the capacity market and the strategic reserve mechanism, and studies to what extent they can reduce the investment cycles. Generation costs and shortage costs of both mechanisms are also compared to conclude on their effectivity and economic efficiency. A simulation model, based on system dynamics, is developed to study the functioning of both CRMs and the related investment decisions. The results highlight the benefits of deploying CRMs to solve the adequacy issue: shortages are strongly reduced compared to an energy-only market. Besides, the capacity market appears to be more beneficial, since it experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower. These comparisons can be used by policy makers (in particular in Europe, where these two CRMs are mainly debated) to determine which CRM to adopt. - Highlights: •A study of the dynamic effects of CRMs on generation investments is provided. •Capacity market and strategic reserve mechanism are compared. •Both CRMs reduce the cyclical tendencies prone to appear in energy-only market. •The capacity market experiences fewer shortages and generation costs are lower.

  17. Using information theory to assess the communicative capacity of circulating microRNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finn, Nnenna A; Searles, Charles D

    2013-10-11

    The discovery of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) and their transport modalities (i.e., microparticles, exosomes, proteins and lipoproteins) has sparked theories regarding their role in intercellular communication. Here, we assessed the information transfer capacity of different miRNA transport modalities in human serum by utilizing basic principles of information theory. Zipf Statistics were calculated for each of the miRNA transport modalities identified in human serum. Our analyses revealed that miRNA-mediated information transfer is redundant, as evidenced by negative Zipf's Statistics with magnitudes greater than one. In healthy subjects, the potential communicative capacity of miRNA in complex with circulating proteins was significantly lower than that of miRNA encapsulated in circulating microparticles and exosomes. Moreover, the presence of coronary heart disease significantly lowered the communicative capacity of all circulating miRNA transport modalities. To assess the internal organization of circulating miRNA signals, Shannon's zero- and first-order entropies were calculated. Microparticles (MPs) exhibited the lowest Shannon entropic slope, indicating a relatively high capacity for information transfer. Furthermore, compared to the other miRNA transport modalities, MPs appeared to be the most efficient at transferring miRNA to cultured endothelial cells. Taken together, these findings suggest that although all transport modalities have the capacity for miRNA-based information transfer, MPs may be the simplest and most robust way to achieve miRNA-based signal transduction in sera. This study presents a novel method for analyzing the quantitative capacity of miRNA-mediated information transfer while providing insight into the communicative characteristics of distinct circulating miRNA transport modalities. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  18. Quality assessment of expert answers to lay questions about cystic fibrosis from various language zones in Europe: the ECORN-CF project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    d'Alquen, Daniela; De Boeck, Kris; Bradley, Judy; Vávrová, Věra; Dembski, Birgit; Wagner, Thomas O F; Pfalz, Annette; Hebestreit, Helge

    2012-02-06

    The European Centres of Reference Network for Cystic Fibrosis (ECORN-CF) established an Internet forum which provides the opportunity for CF patients and other interested people to ask experts questions about CF in their mother language. The objectives of this study were to: 1) develop a detailed quality assessment tool to analyze quality of expert answers, 2) evaluate the intra- and inter-rater agreement of this tool, and 3) explore changes in the quality of expert answers over the time frame of the project. The quality assessment tool was developed by an expert panel. Five experts within the ECORN-CF project used the quality assessment tool to analyze the quality of 108 expert answers published on ECORN-CF from six language zones. 25 expert answers were scored at two time points, one year apart. Quality of answers was also assessed at an early and later period of the project. Individual rater scores and group mean scores were analyzed for each expert answer. A scoring system and training manual were developed analyzing two quality categories of answers: content and formal quality. For content quality, the grades based on group mean scores for all raters showed substantial agreement between two time points, however this was not the case for the grades based on individual rater scores. For formal quality the grades based on group mean scores showed only slight agreement between two time points and there was also poor agreement between time points for the individual grades. The inter-rater agreement for content quality was fair (mean kappa value 0.232 ± 0.036, p value 0.105 ± 0.024, p change over time. The quality assessment tool described in this study was feasible and reliable when content quality was assessed by a group of raters. Within ECORN-CF, the tool will help ensure that CF patients all over Europe have equal possibility of access to high quality expert advice on their illness. © 2012 d’Alquen et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  19. A review of the carcinogenic potential of glyphosate by four independent expert panels and comparison to the IARC assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Gary M; Aardema, Marilyn; Acquavella, John; Berry, Sir Colin; Brusick, David; Burns, Michele M; de Camargo, Joao Lauro Viana; Garabrant, David; Greim, Helmut A; Kier, Larry D; Kirkland, David J; Marsh, Gary; Solomon, Keith R; Sorahan, Tom; Roberts, Ashley; Weed, Douglas L

    2016-09-01

    The International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) published a monograph in 2015 concluding that glyphosate is "probably carcinogenic to humans" (Group 2A) based on limited evidence in humans and sufficient evidence in experimental animals. It was also concluded that there was strong evidence of genotoxicity and oxidative stress. Four Expert Panels have been convened for the purpose of conducting a detailed critique of the evidence in light of IARC's assessment and to review all relevant information pertaining to glyphosate exposure, animal carcinogenicity, genotoxicity, and epidemiologic studies. Two of the Panels (animal bioassay and genetic toxicology) also provided a critique of the IARC position with respect to conclusions made in these areas. The incidences of neoplasms in the animal bioassays were found not to be associated with glyphosate exposure on the basis that they lacked statistical strength, were inconsistent across studies, lacked dose-response relationships, were not associated with preneoplasia, and/or were not plausible from a mechanistic perspective. The overall weight of evidence from the genetic toxicology data supports a conclusion that glyphosate (including GBFs and AMPA) does not pose a genotoxic hazard and therefore, should not be considered support for the classification of glyphosate as a genotoxic carcinogen. The assessment of the epidemiological data found that the data do not support a causal relationship between glyphosate exposure and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma while the data were judged to be too sparse to assess a potential relationship between glyphosate exposure and multiple myeloma. As a result, following the review of the totality of the evidence, the Panels concluded that the data do not support IARC's conclusion that glyphosate is a "probable human carcinogen" and, consistent with previous regulatory assessments, further concluded that glyphosate is unlikely to pose a carcinogenic risk to humans.

  20. Beyond Vulnerability Assessment: Impact of Developments toward Local Adaptive Capacity in Kemijen City Village, Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayanimitta, M. E.; Puspasari, D. A.; Widyahantari, R.; Kristina, D.; Ratnaningtyas, T.; Setionurjaya, A.; Anindita, Y. A.

    2018-02-01

    Vulnerability Assessment is usually used for assessing the ability of an area on facing disaster. In previous studies, the study of Vulnerability Assessment applied only quantitative method to show the vulnerability level. Therefore, this study attempts to add information reviews using qualitative method. Kemijen City Village is one of the administrative areas in the northern part of Semarang City affected by climate change. The residents have to adapt it by renovating and elevating their houses and other infrastructures to avoid floods. There are some development programs held by government, NGOs, and corporations such as Banger Polder Development, PLPBK, etc. It is interesting to know how big the vulnerability level of Kemijen on facing flood disasters, then how the projects can affect local adaptive capacity. To answer it, this research uses mixed-method approach. Vulnerability Assessment uses quantitative method by scoring indicators of Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity, while the development impact uses qualitative method. The data were collected through interviews and FGD conducted in Joint Studio Course between Diponegoro University and University of Hawaii in October 2016. Non-physical programs such as community empowerment have more positive impacts on local adaptive capacity in Kemijen. Community participation is important for environmental sustainability that can not be done in a short time to educate the people.

  1. Assessing the Decision-Making Capacity of Terminally Ill Patients with Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolva, Elissa; Rosenfeld, Barry; Saracino, Rebecca

    2018-05-01

    Despite the clinical, ethical, and legal magnitude of end-of-life decision-making, the capacity of terminally ill patients to make the medical decisions they often face is largely unknown. In practice, clinicians are responsible for determining when their patients are no longer competent to make treatment decisions, yet the accuracy of these assessments is unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore decision-making capacity and its assessment in terminally ill cancer patients. Fifty-five patients with advanced cancer receiving inpatient palliative care and 50 healthy adults were administered the MacArthur Competence Assessment Tool for Treatment (MacCAT-T) to evaluate decision-making capacity with regard to the four most commonly used legal standards: Choice, Understanding, Appreciation, and Reasoning. Participants made a hypothetical treatment decision about whether to accept artificial nutrition and hydration for treatment of cachexia. Participants' physicians independently rated their decision-making capacity. Terminally ill participants were significantly more impaired than healthy adults on all MacCAT-T subscales. Most terminally ill participants were able to express a treatment choice (85.7%), but impairment was common on the Understanding (44.2%), Appreciation (49.0%), and Reasoning (85.4%) subscales. Agreement between physician-rated capacity and performance on the MacCAT-T subscales was poor. The use of the MacCAT-T revealed high rates of decisional impairment in terminally ill participants. Participants' physicians infrequently detected impairment identified by the MacCAT-T. The findings from the present study reinforce the need for engagement in advance care planning for patients with advanced cancer. Copyright © 2018 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Expert Panel Elicitation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jensen, M. [Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Waste Management and Environmental Protection; Hora, S.C. [Univ. of Hawaii, Hilo, HI (United States)

    2005-09-15

    Scientists are now frequently in a situation where data cannot be easily assessed, since they may have conflicting or uncertain sources. While expert judgment reflects private choices, it is possible both reduce the personal aspect as well as in crease confidence in the judgments by using formal protocols for choice and elicitation of experts. A full-scale elicitation made on seismicity following glaciation, now in its late phase and presented here in a preliminary form, illustrates the value of the technique and some essential issues in connection with the decision to launch such a project. The results show an unusual low variation between the experts.

  3. Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

    2015-12-01

    This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

  4. Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

    2015-12-01

    This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

  5. Assessment of occupational risks to extremely low frequency magnetic fields: Validation of an empirical non-expert approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariam El-Zein

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The expert method of exposure assignment involves relying on chemists or hygienists to estimate occupational exposures using information collected on study subjects. Once the estimation method for a particular contaminant has been made available in the literature, it is not known whether a non-expert, briefly trained by an expert remaining available to answer ad hoc questions, can provide reliable exposure estimates. We explored this issue by comparing estimates of exposure to extremely low frequency magnetic fields (ELF-MF obtained by an expert to those from a non-expert. Using a published exposure matrix, both the expert and non-expert independently calculated a weekly time-weighted average exposure for 208 maternal jobs by considering three main determinants: the work environment, magnetic field sources, and duration of use or exposure to given sources. Agreement between assessors was tested using the Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement. The overall mean difference in estimates between the expert and non-expert was 0.004 μT (standard deviation 0.104. The 95% limits of agreement were −0.20 μT and +0.21 μT. The work environments and exposure sources were almost always similarly identified but there were differences in estimating exposure duration. This occurred mainly when information collected from study subjects was not sufficiently detailed. Our results suggest that following a short training period and the availability of a clearly described method for estimating exposures, a non-expert can cost-efficiently and reliably assign exposure, at least to ELF-MF.

  6. Using Information Theory to Assess the Communicative Capacity of Circulating MicroRNA

    OpenAIRE

    Finn, Nnenna A.; Searles, Charles D.

    2013-01-01

    The discovery of extracellular microRNAs (miRNAs) and their transport modalities (i.e. microparticles, exosomes, proteins and lipoproteins) has sparked theories regarding their role in intercellular communication. Here, we assessed the information transfer capacity of different miRNA transport modalities in human serum by utilizing basic principles of information theory. Zipf Statistics were calculated for each of the miRNA transport modalities identified in human serum. Our analyses revealed...

  7. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel : a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, Joyeeta; Termeer, Catrien; Klostermann, Judith; Meijerink, Sander; van den Brink, Margo; Jong, Pieter; Nooteboom, Sibout; Bergsma, Emmy

    2010-01-01

    Climate change potentially brings continuous and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Consequently, it calls for institutions that promote the adaptive capacity of society and allow society to modify its institutions at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. Institutions,

  8. The Adaptive Capacity Wheel: a method to assess the inherent characteristics of institutions to enable the adaptive capacity of society

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gupta, J.; Termeer, C.; Klostermann, J.; Meijerink, S.; van den Brink, M.; de Jong, P.; Nootebooms, S.; Bergsma, E.J.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change potentially brings continuous and unpredictable changes in weather patterns. Consequently, it calls for institutions that promote the adaptive capacity of society and allow society to modify its institutions at a rate commensurate with the rate of environmental change. Institutions,

  9. NATIONAL CAPACITY SELF ASSESSMENT FOR NON-ANNEX I NATIONS: THE CASE OF LEBANON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farid B. Chaaban

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Countries, both developed and developing, are called on to identify, through self assessments, their priority environmental issues such as mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, combating deforestation, promoting sustainable land and water management, and minimizing their vulnerabilities to the impact of climate change. Root cause analysis is conducted to determine the major barriers and institutional capacities. This papers presents capacity constraints in national priority issues typically encountered in developing or non-annex one nations, with the national capacity self assessment of Lebanon taken as a case study. The analysis of the information has identified a number of achievements and difficulties related to the fulfillment of the commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. The common priority issues are national action plan for GHG abatement, vulnerability and adaptation, research and systematic observation, technology transfer, and education and public awareness. Root cause analysis related to priority issues has been carried out during which the causes and impacts of the constraints have been identified. The corresponding assessment matrices are also presented. Lack of financial resources is found to be the constraint facing priority issues.

  10. Ecological carrying capacity assessment of diving site: A case study of Mabul Island, Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Li-Ye; Chung, Shan-Shan; Qiu, Jian-Wen

    2016-12-01

    Despite considered a non-consumptive use of the marine environment, diving-related activities can cause damages to coral reefs. It is imminent to assess the maximum numbers of divers that can be accommodated by a diving site before it is subject to irreversible deterioration. This study aimed to assess the ecological carrying capacity of a diving site in Mabul Island, Malaysia. Photo-quadrat line transect method was used in the benthic survey. The ecological carrying capacity was assessed based on the relationship between the number of divers and the proportion of diver damaged hard corals in Mabul Island. The results indicated that the proportion of diver damaged hard corals occurred exponentially with increasing use. The ecological carrying capacity of Mabul Island is 15,600-16,800 divers per diving site per year at current levels of diver education and training with a quarterly threshold of 3900-4200 per site. Our calculation shows that management intervention (e.g. limiting diving) is justified at 8-14% of hard coral damage. In addition, the use of coral reef dominated diving sites should be managed according to their sensitivity to diver damage and the depth of the reefs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Assessment of children's capacity to consent for research: a descriptive qualitative study of researchers' practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gibson, Barbara E; Stasiulis, Elaine; Gutfreund, Shawna; McDonald, Maria; Dade, Lauren

    2011-08-01

    In Canadian jurisdictions without specific legislation pertaining to research consent, the onus is placed on researchers to determine whether a child is capable of independently consenting to participate in a research study. Little, however, is known about how child health researchers are approaching consent and capacity assessment in practice. The aim of this study was to explore and describe researchers' current practices. The study used a qualitative descriptive design consisting of 14 face-to-face interviews with child health researchers and research assistants in Southern Ontario. Transcribed interviews were analysed for common themes. Procedures for assessing capacity varied considerably from the use of age cutoffs to in-depth engagement with each child. Three key issues emerged from the accounts: (1) requirements that consent be provided by a single person thwarted researchers' abilities to support family decision-making; (2) little practical distinction was made between assessing if a child was capable, versus determining if study information had been adequately explained by the researcher; and (3) participants' perceived that review boards' requirements may conflict with what they considered ethical consent practices. The results suggest that researchers' consent and capacity knowledge and skills vary considerably. Perceived discrepancies between ethical practice and ethics boards' requirements suggest the need for dialogue, education and possibly ethics board reforms. Furthermore we propose, where appropriate, a 'family decision-making' model that allows parents and their children to consent together, thereby shifting the focus from separate assent and consent procedures to approaches that appropriately engage the child and family.

  12. Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, P; Brouwer, A; Ramnial, V; Kelly, L; Kosmider, R; Fooks, A R; Snary, E L

    2010-02-01

    Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.

  13. Estimation of performance shaping factors for overtime and shift length using expert judgment based on related assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vickroy, S.C.

    1986-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a study to estimate human performance and error rate under several amounts of overtime and different shifts without the use of human subjects. Ten chronobiology, fatigue, and shift scheduling experts were administered a questionnaire to rate the effects that several shifts and overtime amounts might have on the performance of individuals working under their constraints. The data from the ratings were transformed to generate performance shaping factors used for sensitivity analyses on three previously published probabilistic risk assessments. This procedure was performed to determine the effect that different shift schedules and amounts of overtime would have on overall plant performance. The results of the analysis suggest that the risk due to human errors caused by the shift scheduling and overtime could increase the risk of accidents at a nuclear power plant caused by humans by up to a factor of five. This could increase the chance for an accident at a nuclear power plant by a factor of about three

  14. [Assessment and training of strength and balance for fall prevention in the elderly: recommendations of an interdisciplinary expert panel].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granacher, U; Muehlbauer, T; Gschwind, Y J; Pfenninger, B; Kressig, R W

    2014-08-01

    The proportion of elderly people in societies of western industrialized countries is continuously rising. Biologic aging induces deficits in balance and muscle strength/power in old age, which is responsible for an increased prevalence of falls. Therefore, nationwide and easy-to-administer fall prevention programs have to be developed in order to contribute to the autonomy and quality of life in old age and to help reduce the financial burden on the public health care system due to the treatment of fall-related injuries. This narrative (qualitative) literature review deals with a) the reasons for an increased prevalence of falls in old age, b) important clinical tests for fall-risk assessment, and c) evidence-based intervention/training programs for fall prevention in old age. The findings of this literature review are based on a cost-free practice guide that is available to the public (via the internet) and that was created by an expert panel (i.e., geriatricians, exercise scientists, physiotherapists, geriatric therapists). The present review provides the scientific foundation of the practice guide.

  15. Ethnization of the collective consciousness of Russians in the Moscow region: An expert assessment of the process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A A Onosov

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Based on the existing scientific approaches, the article continues considering the ethnicization of the mass consciousness of Russian citizens, which takes place under the internal and international labor migration. The article presents the results of the situational analysis and humanitarian expertise of the Russian population’s ethnic identity formation in Moscow and the Moscow Region as Russia’s main attractors of international labor migrants. Based on the statistical data, public opinion survey data and expert assessments, the authors present an empirical model of ethnic identity with theoretical validation and interpretation provided. The study of ethnic identity is accompanied by an insight into the causes and factors of the Russians’ collective consciousness ethnicization, explication of the real content of this process with regard to specific conditions of its manifestation contributing to intensification or weakening of ethnicization. Then the ethnicization of consciousness is considered in the broad context of global ethnic-social dynamics: as a part and reflection of the overall civilizational process determining that the rise of ethnic self-awareness in various social groups and regional communities, not only in Russia, but also far abroad, is a forced response to the globalization as it is practiced in the contemporary world.

  16. Assessment of the Sustainable Development Capacity with the Entropy Weight Coefficient Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingsong Wang

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Sustainable development is widely accepted in the world. How to reflect the sustainable development capacity of a region is an important issue for enacting policies and plans. An index system for capacity assessment is established by employing the Entropy Weight Coefficient method. The results indicate that the sustainable development capacity of Shandong Province is improving in terms of its economy subsystem, resource subsystem, and society subsystem whilst degrading in its environment subsystem. Shandong Province has shown the general trend towards sustainable development. However, the sustainable development capacity can be constrained by the resources such as energy, land, water, as well as environmental protection. These issues are induced by the economy development model, the security of energy supply, the level of new energy development, the end-of-pipe control of pollution, and the level of science and technology commercialization. Efforts are required to accelerate the development of the tertiary industry, the commercialization of high technology, the development of new energy and renewable energy, and the structure optimization of energy mix. Long-term measures need to be established for the ecosystem and environment protection.

  17. Use of sinkhole and specific capacity distributions to assess vertical gradients in a karst aquifer

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, K.J.; Kozar, M.D.

    2008-01-01

    The carbonate-rock aquifer in the Great Valley, West Virginia, USA, was evaluated using a database of 687 sinkholes and 350 specific capacity tests to assess structural, lithologic, and topographic influences on the groundwater flow system. The enhanced permeability of the aquifer is characterized in part by the many sinkholes, springs, and solutionally enlarged fractures throughout the valley. Yet, vertical components of subsurface flow in this highly heterogeneous aquifer are currently not well understood. To address this problem, this study examines the apparent relation between geologic features of the aquifer and two spatial indices of enhanced permeability attributed to aquifer karstification: (1) the distribution of sinkholes and (2) the occurrence of wells with relatively high specific capacity. Statistical results indicate that sinkholes (funnel and collapse) occur primarily along cleavage and bedding planes parallel to subparallel to strike where lateral or downward vertical gradients are highest. Conversely, high specific capacity values are common along prominent joints perpendicular or oblique to strike. The similarity of the latter distribution to that of springs suggests these fractures are areas of upward-convergent flow. These differences between sinkhole and high specific capacity distributions suggest vertical flow components are primarily controlled by the orientation of geologic structure and associated subsurface fracturing. ?? 2007 Springer-Verlag.

  18. Exploring the Role of Cognitive Factors in a New Instrument for Elders' Financial Capacity Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giannouli, Vaitsa; Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsolaki, Magda

    2018-01-01

    The influence of cognitive factors on financial capacity across the dementia spectrum of cognitive aging, Alzheimer's disease (AD), and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) has been little investigated, while it has not been investigated at all in other types of dementia as well as in extended samples of elders in Greece. The aim of this study is to investigate financial capacity, to develop a tool, test its psychometric properties, validate, and then test the tool in groups of healthy controls compared to elders with dementia, while examining other facets of their cognitive performance. 719 elders from Greece including healthy participants and patients with different types of dementia were examined with Legal Capacity for Property Law Transactions Assessment Scale (LCPLTAS) and a battery of neuropsychological tests concerning various cognitive functions. Significantly different profiles in the scores and subscores of LCPLTAS for all the groups of dementia patients were found, with a general incapacity finding for all the dementia groups including the MCI patients. Logistic regression showed that Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Geriatric Depression Scale, and Trail Making Part B predicted competence on LCPLTAS for the dementia patients. Persons with MCI and dementia had lower financial knowledge scores than those without cognitive impairment, with MMSE scores below 27 suggestive as an indication of financial incapacity. The LCPLTAS provides information for a strong positive correlation with MMSE, while the use both of MMSE and LCPLTAS as adequate measures of financial (in)capacity is discussed for the Greek legal procedures regarding elder guardianship cases.

  19. Serial Assessment of Trauma Care Capacity in Ghana in 2004 and 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Barclay T; Quansah, Robert; Gyedu, Adam; Boakye, Godfred; Abantanga, Francis; Ankomah, James; Donkor, Peter; Mock, Charles

    2016-02-01

    Trauma care capacity assessments in developing countries have generated evidence to support advocacy, detailed baseline capabilities, and informed targeted interventions. However, serial assessments to determine the effect of capacity improvements or changes over time have rarely been performed. To compare the availability of trauma care resources in Ghana between 2004 and 2014 to assess the effects of a decade of change in the trauma care landscape and derive recommendations for improvements. Capacity assessments were performed using direct inspection and structured interviews derived from the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care. In Ghana, 10 hospitals in 2004 and 32 hospitals in 2014 were purposively sampled to represent those most likely to care for injuries. Clinical staff, administrators, logistic/procurement officers, and technicians/biomedical engineers who interacted, directly or indirectly, with trauma care resources were interviewed at each hospital. Availability of items for trauma care was rated from 0 (complete absence) to 3 (fully available). Factors contributing to deficiency in 2014 were determined for items rated lower than 3. Each item rated lower than 3 at a specific hospital was defined as a hospital-item deficiency. Scores for total number of hospital-item deficiencies were derived for each contributing factor. There were significant improvements in mean ratings for trauma care resources: district-level (smaller) hospitals had a mean rating of 0.8 for all items in 2004 vs 1.3 in 2014 (P = .002); regional (larger) hospitals had a mean rating of 1.1 in 2004 vs 1.4 in 2014 (P = .01). However, a number of critical deficiencies remain (eg, chest tubes, diagnostics, and orthopedic and neurosurgical care; mean ratings ≤ 2). Leading contributing factors were item absence (503 hospital-item deficiencies), lack of training (335 hospital-item deficiencies), and stockout of consumables (137 hospital-item deficiencies

  20. Orthopaedic Trauma Care Capacity Assessment and Strategic Planning in Ghana: Mapping a Way Forward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Barclay T; Gyedu, Adam; Tansley, Gavin; Yeboah, Dominic; Amponsah-Manu, Forster; Mock, Charles; Labi-Addo, Wilfred; Quansah, Robert

    2016-12-07

    Orthopaedic conditions incur more than 52 million disability-adjusted life years annually worldwide. This burden disproportionately affects low and middle-income countries, which are least equipped to provide orthopaedic care. We aimed to assess orthopaedic capacity in Ghana, describe spatial access to orthopaedic care, and identify hospitals that would most improve access to care if their capacity was improved. Seventeen perioperative and orthopaedic trauma care-related items were selected from the World Health Organization's Guidelines for Essential Trauma Care. Direct inspection and structured interviews with hospital staff were used to assess resource availability and factors contributing to deficiencies at 40 purposively sampled facilities. Cost-distance analyses described population-level spatial access to orthopaedic trauma care. Facilities for targeted capability improvement were identified through location-allocation modeling. Orthopaedic trauma care assessment demonstrated marked deficiencies. Some deficient resources were low cost (e.g., spinal immobilization, closed reduction capabilities, and prosthetics for amputees). Resource nonavailability resulted from several contributing factors (e.g., absence of equipment, technology breakage, lack of training). Implants were commonly prohibitively expensive. Building basic orthopaedic care capacity at 15 hospitals without such capacity would improve spatial access to basic care from 74.9% to 83.0% of the population (uncertainty interval [UI] of 81.2% to 83.6%), providing access for an additional 2,169,714 Ghanaians. The availability of several low-cost resources could be better supplied by improvements in organization and training for orthopaedic trauma care. There is a critical need to advocate and provide funding for orthopaedic resources. These initiatives might be particularly effective if aimed at hospitals that could provide care to a large proportion of the population.

  1. Building capacity for Health Impact Assessment: Training outcomes from the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuchter, Joseph [Berkeley, CA (United States); Rutt, Candace, E-mail: awr8@cdc.gov [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity, 4770 Buford Highway MS/F-77, Atlanta, GA 30341 (United States); Satariano, William A. [University of California Berkeley, School of Public Health, Division of Community Health and Human Development, Berkeley, CA (United States); Seto, Edmund [University of Washington, Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, Seattle, WA (United States)

    2015-01-15

    Background: Despite the continued growth of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the US, there is little research on HIA capacity-building. A comprehensive study of longer-term training outcomes may reveal opportunities for improving capacity building activities and HIA practice. Methods: We conducted in-depth interviews with HIA trainees in the United States to assess their outcomes and needs. Using a training evaluation framework, we measured outcomes across a spectrum of reaction, learning, behavior and results. Results: From 2006 to 2012, four organizations trained over 2200 people in at least 75 in-person HIA trainings in 29 states. We interviewed 48 trainees, selected both randomly and purposefully. The mean duration between training and interview was 3.4 years. Trainees reported that their training objectives were met, especially when relevant case-studies were used. They established new collaborations at the trainings and maintained them. Training appeared to catalyze more holistic thinking and practice, including a range of HIA-related activities. Many trainees disseminated what they learned and engaged in components of HIA, even without dedicated funding. Going forward, trainees need assistance with quantitative methods, project management, community engagement, framing recommendations, and evaluation. Conclusions: The research revealed opportunities for a range of HIA stakeholders to refine and coordinate training resources, apply a competency framework and leverage complimentary workforce development efforts, and sensitize and build the capacity of communities. - Highlights: • We interviewed HIA trainees in the United States to assess longer-term outcomes. • Training appeared to catalyze a range of beneficial partnerships and activities. • Trainees reported outstanding needs for specific skills and competencies. • There are various opportunities to improve training and capacity-building.

  2. Building capacity for Health Impact Assessment: Training outcomes from the United States

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuchter, Joseph; Rutt, Candace; Satariano, William A.; Seto, Edmund

    2015-01-01

    Background: Despite the continued growth of Health Impact Assessment (HIA) in the US, there is little research on HIA capacity-building. A comprehensive study of longer-term training outcomes may reveal opportunities for improving capacity building activities and HIA practice. Methods: We conducted in-depth interviews with HIA trainees in the United States to assess their outcomes and needs. Using a training evaluation framework, we measured outcomes across a spectrum of reaction, learning, behavior and results. Results: From 2006 to 2012, four organizations trained over 2200 people in at least 75 in-person HIA trainings in 29 states. We interviewed 48 trainees, selected both randomly and purposefully. The mean duration between training and interview was 3.4 years. Trainees reported that their training objectives were met, especially when relevant case-studies were used. They established new collaborations at the trainings and maintained them. Training appeared to catalyze more holistic thinking and practice, including a range of HIA-related activities. Many trainees disseminated what they learned and engaged in components of HIA, even without dedicated funding. Going forward, trainees need assistance with quantitative methods, project management, community engagement, framing recommendations, and evaluation. Conclusions: The research revealed opportunities for a range of HIA stakeholders to refine and coordinate training resources, apply a competency framework and leverage complimentary workforce development efforts, and sensitize and build the capacity of communities. - Highlights: • We interviewed HIA trainees in the United States to assess longer-term outcomes. • Training appeared to catalyze a range of beneficial partnerships and activities. • Trainees reported outstanding needs for specific skills and competencies. • There are various opportunities to improve training and capacity-building

  3. Assessment of health facility capacity to provide newborn care in Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Senegal, and Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Rebecca; Yourkavitch, Jennifer; Wang, Wenjuan; Mallick, Lindsay

    2017-12-01

    Despite the importance of health facility capacity to provide comprehensive care, the most widely used indicators for global monitoring of maternal and child health remain contact measures which assess women's use of services only and not the capacity of health facilities to provide those services; there is a gap in monitoring health facilities' capacity to provide newborn care services in low and middle income countries. In this study we demonstrate a measurable framework for assessing health facility capacity to provide newborn care using open access, nationally-representative Service Provision Assessment (SPA) data from the Demographic Health Surveys Program. In particular, we examine whether key newborn-related services are available at the facility (ie, service availability, measured by the availability of basic emergency obstetric care (BEmOC) signal functions, newborn signal functions, and routine perinatal services), and whether the facility has the equipment, medications, training and knowledge necessary to provide those services (ie, service readiness, measured by general facility requirements, equipment, medicines and commodities, and guidelines and staffing) in five countries with high levels of neonatal mortality and recent SPA data: Bangladesh, Haiti, Malawi, Senegal, and Tanzania. In each country, we find that key services and commodities needed for comprehensive delivery and newborn care are missing from a large percentage of facilities with delivery services. Of three domains of service availability examined, scores for routine care availability are highest, while scores for newborn signal function availability are lowest. Of four domains of service readiness examined, scores for general requirements and equipment are highest, while scores for guidelines and staffing are lowest. Both service availability and readiness tend to be highest in hospitals and facilities in urban areas, pointing to substantial equity gaps in the availability of essential

  4. Expert Systems: What Is an Expert System?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duval, Beverly K.; Main, Linda

    1994-01-01

    Describes expert systems and discusses their use in libraries. Highlights include parts of an expert system; expert system shells; an example of how to build an expert system; a bibliography of 34 sources of information on expert systems in libraries; and a list of 10 expert system shells used in libraries. (Contains five references.) (LRW)

  5. Using health technology assessment to assess the value of new medicines: results of a systematic review and expert consultation across eight European countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelis, Aris; Lange, Ansgar; Kanavos, Panos

    2018-01-01

    Although health technology assessment (HTA) systems base their decision making process either on economic evaluations or comparative clinical benefit assessment, a central aim of recent approaches to value measurement, including value based assessment and pricing, points towards the incorporation of supplementary evidence and criteria that capture additional dimensions of value. To study the practices, processes and policies of value-assessment for new medicines across eight European countries and the role of HTA beyond economic evaluation and clinical benefit assessment. A systematic (peer review and grey) literature review was conducted using an analytical framework examining: (1) 'Responsibilities and structure of HTA agencies'; (2) 'Evidence and evaluation criteria considered in HTAs'; (3) 'Methods and techniques applied in HTAs'; and (4) 'Outcomes and implementation of HTAs'. Study countries were France, Germany, England, Sweden, Italy, Netherlands, Poland and Spain. Evidence from the literature was validated and updated through two rounds of feedback involving primary data collection from national experts. All countries assess similar types of evidence; however, the specific criteria/endpoints used, their level of provision and requirement, and the way they are incorporated (e.g. explicitly vs. implicitly) varies across countries, with their relative importance remaining generally unknown. Incorporation of additional 'social value judgements' (beyond clinical benefit assessment) and economic evaluation could help explain heterogeneity in coverage recommendations and decision-making. More comprehensive and systematic assessment procedures characterised by increased transparency, in terms of selection of evaluation criteria, their importance and intensity of use, could lead to more rational evidence-based decision-making, possibly improving efficiency in resource allocation, while also raising public confidence and fairness.

  6. Model error assessment of burst capacity models for energy pipelines containing surface cracks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yan, Zijian; Zhang, Shenwei; Zhou, Wenxing

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops the probabilistic characteristics of the model errors associated with five well-known burst capacity models/methodologies for pipelines containing longitudinally-oriented external surface cracks, namely the Battelle and CorLAS™ models as well as the failure assessment diagram (FAD) methodologies recommended in the BS 7910 (2005), API RP579 (2007) and R6 (Rev 4, Amendment 10). A total of 112 full-scale burst test data for cracked pipes subjected internal pressure only were collected from the literature. The model error for a given burst capacity model is evaluated based on the ratios of the test to predicted burst pressures for the collected data. Analysis results suggest that the CorLAS™ model is the most accurate model among the five models considered and the Battelle, BS 7910, API RP579 and R6 models are in general conservative; furthermore, the API RP579 and R6 models are markedly more accurate than the Battelle and BS 7910 models. The results will facilitate the development of reliability-based structural integrity management of pipelines. - Highlights: • Model errors for five burst capacity models for pipelines containing surface cracks are characterized. • Basic statistics of the model errors are obtained based on test-to-predicted ratios. • Results will facilitate reliability-based design and assessment of energy pipelines

  7. The assessment of visually impaired persons working capacities using electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Razumovsky

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Aim was to analyze working capacities of visually impaired persons by means of complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination.Materials and methods. Standard clinical ophthalmologic examination (visual acuity measurement, refractometry, biomicroscopy, ophthalmoscopy as well as electrophysiological (electrooculography, electrical sensitivity of the eye, critical flicker fusion frequency and ophthalmic ergonomics tests (accommodation measurement, professional testing using automated system «Proftest-1» were performed.Results. Complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics tests were performed in 20 visually impaired persons. Their results revealed direct correlation between electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics indices.Conclusion. Working capacities of visually impaired persons can be assessed reliably using complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination only.

  8. The assessment of visually impaired persons working capacities using electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Razumovsky

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Aim was to analyze working capacities of visually impaired persons by means of complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination.Materials and methods. Standard clinical ophthalmologic examination (visual acuity measurement, refractometry, biomicroscopy, ophthalmoscopy as well as electrophysiological (electrooculography, electrical sensitivity of the eye, critical flicker fusion frequency and ophthalmic ergonomics tests (accommodation measurement, professional testing using automated system «Proftest-1» were performed.Results. Complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics tests were performed in 20 visually impaired persons. Their results revealed direct correlation between electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics indices.Conclusion. Working capacities of visually impaired persons can be assessed reliably using complex electrophysiological and ophthalmic ergonomics eye examination only.

  9. Depression in Schizophrenia: Associations With Cognition, Functional Capacity, Everyday Functioning, and Self-Assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Philip D; Twamley, Elizabeth W; Pinkham, Amy E; Depp, Colin A; Patterson, Thomas L

    2017-05-01

    Depressed mood has a complex relationship with self-evaluation of personal competence in multiple populations. The absence of depression may be associated with overestimation of abilities, while mild depression seems to lead to accurate self-assessment. Significant depression may lead to underestimation of functioning. In this study, we expand on our previous work by directly comparing the association between different levels of depression, everyday functioning, cognitive and functional capacity performance, and self-assessment of everyday functioning in a large (n = 406) sample of outpatients with schizophrenia. Participants with very low self-reported depression overestimated their everyday functioning compared with informant reports. Higher levels of depression were associated with more accurate self-assessment, but no subgroup of patients underestimated their functioning. Depressive symptom severity was associated with poorer informant-rated social functioning, but there were no differences in vocational functioning, everyday activities, cognitive performance, and functional capacity associated with the severity of self-reported depression. There was minimal evidence of impact of depression on most aspects of everyday functioning and objective test performance and a substantial relationship between depression and accuracy of self-assessment. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Health research capacity building in Georgia: a case-based needs assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Squires, A; Chitashvili, T; Djibuti, M; Ridge, L; Chyun, D

    2017-06-01

    Research capacity building in the health sciences in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) has typically focused on bench-science capacity, but research examining health service delivery and health workforce is equally necessary to determine the best ways to deliver care. The Republic of Georgia, formerly a part of the Soviet Union, has multiple issues within its healthcare system that would benefit from expended research capacity, but the current research environment needs to be explored prior to examining research-focused activities. The purpose of this project was to conduct a needs assessment focused on developing research capacity in the Republic of Georgia with an emphasis on workforce and network development. A case study approach guided by a needs assessment format. We conducted in-country, informal, semi-structured interviews in English with key informants and focus groups with faculty, students, and representatives of local non-governmental organizations. Purposive and snowball sampling approaches were used to recruit participants, with key informant interviews scheduled prior to arrival in country. Documents relevant to research capacity building were also included. Interview results were coded via content analysis. Final results were organized into a SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threat) analysis format, with the report shared with participants. There is widespread interest among students and faculty in Georgia around building research capacity. Lack of funding was identified by many informants as a barrier to research. Many critical research skills, such as proposal development, qualitative research skills, and statistical analysis, were reported as very limited. Participants expressed concerns about the ethics of research, with some suggesting that research is undertaken to punish or 'expose' subjects. However, students and faculty are highly motivated to improve their skills, are open to a variety of learning modalities, and have

  11. Institutionalizing Health Impact Assessment: A consultation with experts on the barriers and facilitators to implementing HIA in Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linzalone, Nunzia; Ballarini, Adele; Piccinelli, Cristiano; Viliani, Francesca; Bianchi, Fabrizio

    2018-07-15

    A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is an evidence-based methodology that includes health promotion and protection goals in decision-making. HIA has been introduced and/or institutionalized to various extents in different countries. In order to promote HIA and preventive health assessments in Italy, a research methodology was followed to identify specific obstacles or facilitators. The experiences of various countries reported in the literature were analyzed in terms of facilitating or hindering the introduction and institutionalization of HIA. A consultation with the proponents of projects and plans in Italy was carried out with a multi-approach methodology in order to characterize the national context. A general implementation plan was drawn up from the international experiences. In Italy this is not yet in place. Specific areas of intervention need to be addressed, including: 1) data availability; 2) tools and methods; 3) engagement of stakeholders; 4) capacity building. The research suggests that the institutionalization of HIA in Italy rests on the government's commitment to providing specific legislation regarding HIA so that skills, intersectoral coordination and dedicated budgets can be built and maintained. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of HIV molecular surveillance capacity in the European Union, 2016.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keating, Patrick; Pharris, Anastasia; Leitmeyer, Katrin; De Angelis, Stefania; Wensing, Annemarie; Amato-Gauci, Andrew J; Broberg, Eeva

    2017-12-01

    IntroductionExpanding access to HIV antiretroviral treatment is expected to decrease HIV incidence and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) mortality. However, this may also result in increased HIV drug resistance (DR). Better monitoring and surveillance of HIV DR is required to inform treatment regimens and maintain the long term effectiveness of antiretroviral drugs. As there is currently no formal European Union (EU)-wide collection of HIV DR data, this study aimed to assess the current HIV molecular surveillance capacity in EU/European Economic Area (EEA) countries in order to inform the planning of HIV DR monitoring at EU level. Methods: Thirty EU/EEA countries were invited to participate in a survey on HIV molecular surveillance capacity, which also included laboratory aspects. Results: Among 21 responding countries, 13 reported using HIV sequence data (subtype and/or DR) for surveillance purposes at national level. Of those, nine stated that clinical, epidemiological and sequence data were routinely linked for analysis. Discussion/conclusion : We identified similarities between existing HIV molecular surveillance systems, but also found important challenges including human resources, data ownership and legal issues that would need to be addressed.Information on capacities should allow better planning of the phased introduction of HIV DR surveillance at EU/EEA level.

  13. Rapid high-throughput assay to assess scavenging capacity index using DPPH.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abderrahim, Fatima; Arribas, Silvia M; Gonzalez, M Carmen; Condezo-Hoyos, Luis

    2013-11-15

    A new microplate-adapted DPPH rapid assay was developed to assess the antioxidant capacity of pure compounds and foods. The assay was carried out in buffered medium (methanol: 10mmol/l Tris buffer pH 7.5, 1:1 v/v) and reaction was completed at 10min. The scavenging capacity index (SCI), a theoretical antioxidant parameter directly related to the antioxidant capacity of samples, was calculated. SCI for pure compounds: gallic acid (6.76±0.08), quercetin (7.89±0.24), catechin (6.05±0.23), trolox (2.32±0.03), ascorbic acid (2.52±0.15) and gluthatione (1.08±0.08) and foods (μmol DPPH scavenged/100ml): tropical juice (655.62±12.18), mediterraneo juice (702.87±11.13), apple juice (212.52±17.22), pomegranate juice (319.83±9.45), red grape nectar (1093.05±18.69), Don Simon orange juice (632.94±17.22) and date syrup (15992.34±250.7) were comparable to those in previous reports using the classic DPPH assay. The relative standard deviation (RSD) for the SCI on the same and different days was less than 8.12% in all cases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. An assessment of the effect on Olkiluoto repository capacity achievable with advanced fuel cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Juutilainen, P.; Viitanen, T. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FI-02044 VTT (Finland)

    2013-07-01

    Previously a few scenarios have been simulated for transition from thermal to fast reactor fleet in Finland in order to determine how much the transuranic inventory could be reduced with the partitioning and transmutation (P-T) technologies. Those calculations, performed with COSI6 code developed by CEA, are extended in the present study, in which the effect of P-T on the capacity of the planned final disposal repository at Olkiluoto (Finland) is evaluated by taking into account the created fission products and transuranic residuals from the reprocessing operations. The decay heat is assumed to be the most restrictive factor in defining the waste disposal packing density. The repository capacity evaluation of this study is based on the comparison of the decay heats produced by the deposited waste in various scenarios. The reference scenario of this article involves only Light Water Reactors (LWR) in an open fuel cycle. The capacity requirement of the geological repository is estimated in a few closed fuel cycle scenarios, all including actinide transmutation with Fast Reactors (FR). The comparison between the P-T scenarios and reference is based on the decay heat production of the deposited waste. The COSI6 code is used for simulations to provide the repository decay heat curves. Applying the closed fuel cycle would change the disposal concept and schedule, because of which it is not quite straightforward to assess the impact of P-T on the capacity. However, it can be concluded that recycling the transuranic nuclides probably decreases the required volume for the disposal, but thermal dimensioning analysis is needed for more specific conclusions.

  15. An assessment of The Capacity Drops at The Bottleneck Segments: A review on the existing methodologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sugiarto Sugiarto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The term of capacity is very useful to quantify the ability of transport facilities in terms of carrying traffic. The capacity of the road is an essential ingredient in the planning, design, and operation of roadways. It is desirable for traffic analyst to be able to predict the time and places where congestion will occur and the volumes to be expected. Most of urbanized areas have been experiencing of traffic congestion problems particularly at urban arterial systems. High traffic demand and limited supply of roadways are always the main factors produced traffic congestion. However, there are other sources of local and temporal congestion, such as uncontrolled access point, median opening and on-street parking activities, which are caused a reduction of roadway capacity during peak operations. Those locations could result in reduction of travel speed and road, as known as hidden bottlenecks. This is bottleneck which is without any changes in geometric of the segments. The Indonesian Highway Capacity Manual (IHCM, 1997 is used to assess urban arterial systems till current days. IHCM provides a static method for examining the capacityand does not systematically take into account of bottleneck activities. However, bottleneck activities create interruption smooth traffic flow along arterial streets, which in turns stimulate related problems, such as, excessive air pollution, additional energy consumption and driver’s frustration due to traffic jammed. This condition could happen simultaneously; mostly repetitive and predictable in same peak hour demands. Therefore, this paper carefully summarize on the existing methodologies considering required data, handled data processing and expected output of each proposed of analysis. We further notice that dynamic approach could be more appropriated for analyzing temporal congestion segments (median opening, on street parking, etc.. Method of oblique cumulative plot seems to be more applicable in terms of

  16. Procedural Documentation and Accuracy Assessment of Bathymetric Maps and Area/Capacity Tables for Small Reservoirs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Gary L.; Richards, Joseph M.

    2006-01-01

    Because of the increasing use and importance of lakes for water supply to communities, a repeatable and reliable procedure to determine lake bathymetry and capacity is needed. A method to determine the accuracy of the procedure will help ensure proper collection and use of the data and resulting products. It is important to clearly define the intended products and desired accuracy before conducting the bathymetric survey to ensure proper data collection. A survey-grade echo sounder and differential global positioning system receivers were used to collect water-depth and position data in December 2003 at Sugar Creek Lake near Moberly, Missouri. Data were collected along planned transects, with an additional set of quality-assurance data collected for use in accuracy computations. All collected data were imported into a geographic information system database. A bathymetric surface model, contour map, and area/capacity tables were created from the geographic information system database. An accuracy assessment was completed on the collected data, bathymetric surface model, area/capacity table, and contour map products. Using established vertical accuracy standards, the accuracy of the collected data, bathymetric surface model, and contour map product was 0.67 foot, 0.91 foot, and 1.51 feet at the 95 percent confidence level. By comparing results from different transect intervals with the quality-assurance transect data, it was determined that a transect interval of 1 percent of the longitudinal length of Sugar Creek Lake produced nearly as good results as 0.5 percent transect interval for the bathymetric surface model, area/capacity table, and contour map products.

  17. Management of uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts - Applications to sea-level rise and to CO2 storage operations risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manceau, Jean-Charles; Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Lary Louis, de; Guénan Thomas, Le; Ken, Hnottavange-Telleen

    2017-04-01

    In a context of high degree of uncertainty, when very few data are available, experts are commonly requested to provide their opinions on input parameters of risk assessment models. Not only might each expert express a certain degree of uncertainty on his/her own statements, but the set of information collected from the pool of experts introduces an additional level of uncertainty. It is indeed very unlikely that all experts agree on exactly the same data, especially regarding parameters needed for natural risk assessments. In some cases, their opinions may differ only slightly (e.g. the most plausible value for a parameter is similar for different experts, and they only disagree on the level of uncertainties that taint the said value) while on other cases they may express incompatible opinions for a same parameter. Dealing with these different kinds of uncertainties remains a challenge for assessing geological hazards or/and risks. Extra-probabilistic approaches (such as the Dempster-Shafer theory or the possibility theory) have shown to offer promising solutions for representing parameters on which the knowledge is limited. It is the case for instance when the available information prevents an expert from identifying a unique probability law to picture the total uncertainty. Moreover, such approaches are known to be particularly flexible when it comes to aggregating several and potentially conflicting opinions. We therefore propose to discuss the opportunity of applying these new theories for managing the uncertainties on parameters elicited by experts, by a comparison with the application of more classical probability approaches. The discussion is based on two different examples. The first example deals with the estimation of the injected CO2 plume extent in a reservoir in the context of CO2 geological storage. This estimation requires information on the effective porosity of the reservoir, which has been estimated by 14 different experts. The Dempster

  18. Assessing research activity and capacity of community-based organizations: development and pilot testing of an instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphries, Debbie L; Carroll-Scott, Amy; Mitchell, Leif; Tian, Terry; Choudhury, Shonali; Fiellin, David A

    2014-01-01

    Although awareness of the importance of the research capacity of community-based organizations (CBOs) is growing, a uniform framework of the research capacity domains within CBOs has not yet been developed. To develop a framework and instrument (the Community REsearch Activity assessment Tool [CREAT]) for assessing the research activity and capacity of CBOs that incorporates awareness of the different data collection and analysis priorities of CBOs. We conducted a review of existing tools for assessing research capacity to identify key capacity domains. Instrument items were developed through an iterative process with CBO representatives and community researchers. The CREAT was then pilot tested with 30 CBOs. The four primary domains of the CREAT framework include 1) organizational support for research, 2) generalizable experiences, 3) research specific experiences, and 4) funding. Organizations reported a high prevalence of activities in the research-specific experiences domain, including conducting literature reviews (70%), use of research terminology (83%), and primary data collection (100%). Respondents see research findings as important to improve program and service delivery, and to seek funds for new programs and services. Funders, board members, and policymakers are the most important dissemination audiences. The work reported herein advances the field of CBO research capacity by developing a systematic framework for assessing research activity and capacity relevant to the work of CBOs, and by developing and piloting an instrument to assess activity in these domains.

  19. A Belief Rule-Based Expert System to Assess Bronchiolitis Suspicion from Signs and Symptoms Under Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karim, Rezuan; Hossain, Mohammad Shahadat; Khalid, Md. Saifuddin

    2017-01-01

    developed generic belief rule-based inference methodology by using evidential reasoning (RIMER) acts as the inference engine of this BRBES while belief rule base as the knowledge representation schema. The knowledge base of the system is constructed by using real patient data and expert opinion from...

  20. Assessing Capacity for Sustainability of Effective Programs and Policies in Local Health Departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Rachel G; Duggan, Katie; Smith, Carson; Aisaka, Kristelle; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Brownson, Ross C

    2016-01-01

    Sustainability has been defined as the existence of structures and processes that allow a program to leverage resources to effectively implement and maintain evidence-based public health and is important in local health departments (LHDs) to retain the benefits of effective programs. Explore the applicability of the Program Sustainability Framework in high- and low-capacity LHDs as defined by national performance standards. Case study interviews from June to July 2013. Standard qualitative methodology was used to code transcripts; codes were developed inductively and deductively. Six geographically diverse LHD's (selected from 3 of high and 3 of low capacity) : 35 LHD practitioners. Thematic reports explored the 8 domains (Organizational Capacity, Program Adaptation, Program Evaluation, Communications, Strategic Planning, Funding Stability, Environmental Support, and Partnerships) of the Program Sustainability Framework. High-capacity LHDs described having environmental support, while low-capacity LHDs reported this was lacking. Both high- and low-capacity LHDs described limited funding; however, high-capacity LHDs reported greater funding flexibility. Partnerships were important to high- and low-capacity LHDs, and both described building partnerships to sustain programming. Regarding organizational capacity, high-capacity LHDs reported better access to and support for adequate staff and staff training when compared with low-capacity LHDs. While high-capacity LHDs described integration of program evaluation into implementation and sustainability, low-capacity LHDs reported limited capacity for measurement specifically and evaluation generally. When high-capacity LHDs described program adoption, they discussed an opportunity to adapt and evaluate. Low-capacity LHDs struggled with programs requiring adaptation. High-capacity LHDs described higher quality communication than low-capacity LHDs. High- and low-capacity LHDs described strategic planning, but high-capacity

  1. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2016-09-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

  2. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle

    2016-01-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force (TF1) includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, and identification of fuel performance and system codes applicable to ATF evaluation. The Cladding and Core Materials (TF2) and Fuel Concepts (TF3) task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment task force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (Idaho National Laboratory [INL], U.S.), the Cladding Task Force is chaired by Marie Moatti (Electricite de France [EdF], France), and the Fuels Task Force is chaired by a Masaki Kurata (Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA], Japan). The original Expert Group mandate was established for June 2014 to June 2016. In April 2016 the Expert Group voted to extend the mandate one additional year to June 2017 in order to complete the task force deliverables; this request was subsequently approved by the Nuclear Science Committee. This

  3. Landscapes‘ Capacities to Provide Ecosystem Services – a Concept for Land-Cover Based Assessments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Burkhard

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Landscapes differ in their capacities to provide ecosystem goods and services, which are the benefits humans obtain from nature. Structures and functions of ecosystems needed to sustain the provision of ecosystem services are altered by various human activities. In this paper, a concept for the assessment of multiple ecosystem services is proposed as a basis for discussion and further development of a respective evaluation instrument. Using quantitative and qualitative assessment data in combination with land cover and land use information originated from remote sensing and GIS, impacts of human activities can be evaluated. The results reveal typical patterns of different ecosystems‘ capacities to provide ecosystem services. The proposed approach thus delivers useful integrative information for environmental management and landscape planning, aiming at a sustainable use of services provided by nature. The research concept and methodological framework presented here for discussion have initially been applied in different case studies and shall be developed further to provide a useful tool for the quantification and spatial modelling of multiple ecosystem services in different landscapes. An exemplary application of the approach dealing with food provision in the Halle-Leipzig region in Germany is presented. It shows typical patterns of ecosystem service distribution around urban areas. As the approach is new and still rather general, there is great potential for improvement, especially with regard to a data-based quantification of the numerous hypotheses, which were formulated as base for the assessment. Moreover, the integration of more detailed landscape information on different scales will be needed in future in order to take the heterogeneous distribution of landscape properties and values into account. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to foster critical discussions on the methodological development presented here.

  4. Universal Health Coverage in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa: Assessment of Global Health Experts' Confidence in Policy Options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Elisabeth; Fecher, Fabienne; Meloni, Remo; van Lerberghe, Wim

    2018-05-29

    Many countries rely on standard recipes for accelerating progress toward universal health coverage (UHC). With limited generalizable empirical evidence, expert confidence and consensus plays a major role in shaping country policy choices. This article presents an exploratory attempt conducted between April and September 2016 to measure confidence and consensus among a panel of global health experts in terms of the effectiveness and feasibility of a number of policy options commonly proposed for achieving UHC in low- and middle-income countries, such as fee exemptions for certain groups of people, ring-fenced domestic health budgets, and public-private partnerships. To ensure a relative homogeneity of contexts, we focused on French-speaking sub-Saharan Africa. We initially used the Delphi method to arrive at expert consensus, but since no consensus emerged after 2 rounds, we adjusted our approach to a statistical analysis of the results from our questionnaire by measuring the degree of consensus on each policy option through 100 (signifying total consensus) minus the size of the interquartile range of the individual scores. Seventeen global health experts from various backgrounds, but with at least 20 years' experience in the broad region, participated in the 2 rounds of the study. The results provide an initial "mapping" of the opinions of a group of experts and suggest interesting lessons. For the 18 policy options proposed, consensus emerged only on strengthening the supply of quality primary health care services (judged as being effective with a confidence score of 79 and consensus score of 90), and on fee exemptions for the poorest (judged as being fairly easy to implement with a confidence score of 66 and consensus score of 85). For none of the 18 common policy options was there consensus on both potential effectiveness and feasibility, with very diverging opinions concerning 5 policy options. The lack of confidence and consensus within the panel seems to

  5. Assessing Parenting Capacity in Psychiatric Mother and Baby Units: A case report and review of literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammond, Julie; Lipsedge, Maurice

    2015-09-01

    This review aimed to improve infant risk assessments in the context of maternal mental illness by identifying key predictors of poor parenting outcomes. Inadequate parenting as a result of severe and persistent mental illness is a common reason for courts terminating parental rights. However, the current practice of parenting capacity assessments in the setting of perinatal psychiatry is fraught with risks and uncertainty. A well-recognised flaw in the assessment process is the lack of valid and reliable tools that have been specifically validated for assessing parenting capacity in mothers with a history of mental illness and the potential risk of harm to their infant. To date, there is only one instrument available. A systematic search of Medline, PsycInfo and Embase via the Ovid interface was conducted between September and December 2014. Citation snowball sampling was also used to identify further relevant studies. An additional search was performed in Google to access grey literature. A total of 38 citations were identified, of which 8 publications focusing on the populations of England, France and Belgium met the eligibility criteria of this review. Evidence from existing research suggests that poor parenting outcomes in maternal psychiatric illness are strongly associated with correlates of socio-economic inequalities. However, evidence regarding the long-term implications of such factors is weak as only one follow up study and no longitudinal studies were identified in this review. Our review suggests that the use of standardised empirically validated risk assessment tools would benefit the current practice of parenting assessments by improving the process by which collected information is analysed. This would enhance the accuracy of decision-making, and improve the safeguarding of the infant. Further research is needed on medium to long-term parenting outcomes, particularly regarding its relations to: the type of maternal psychiatric disorder; the quality

  6. A theoretical assessment of antioxidant capacity of flavonoids by means of local hyper–softness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Sandoval-Yañez

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical reactivity descriptor to estimate local reactivity on molecules was tested to assess the antioxidant capability of some flavonoids. It was validated by comparison with experimental precedents published already by Firuzi et al. (2005. The aforementioned reactivity index is called local hyper-softness (LHS. This parameter was applied on HO- substituent groups on the same set of flavonoids within each subclassification: flavones (apigenin and baicalein, flavonols (fisetin, galangin, 3–OH flavone, kaempferol, myricetin, and quercetin, flavanones (hesperetin, naringenin, taxifolin and isoflavones (daidzein and genistein. Experimental values of both techniques, ferric reducing antioxidant power (FRAP and anodic oxidation potential (Eap were retrieved from Firuzi et al. (2005 with the purpose of validating the calculated LHS values. Excepting myricetin, the LHS values of all these compounds matched in a similar order relationship experimentally obtained by means of Eap and FRAP from Firuzi et al. (2005. Our results revealed that LHS is a suitable theoretical parameter to get an insight concerning to the antioxidant capacity of these compounds, in particular, LHS allows explaining experimentally obtained values of FRAP along with Eap values in terms of reactivity of HO- substituent groups belonging these molecules theoretically computed without including experimental parametes. Keywords: Flavonoids, Antioxidant capacity, Ferric reducing antioxidant power, Anodic oxidation potential, Local hypersoftness

  7. Laboratory Assessment of the Infiltration Capacity Reduction in Clogged Porous Mixture Surfaces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio C. Andrés-Valeri

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Permeable pavements have been used widely across the world to manage urban stormwater. The hydrological behaviour of permeable surfaces is a complex process affected by many factors, such as rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, pavement geometrical conditions, and clogging level of the permeable surface, amongst others. This laboratory study was carried out to assess the influence of clogging level and rainfall intensity on the infiltration capacity of porous mixture surfaces used in Permeable Pavement Systems (PPS. Porous Concrete (PC and Porous Asphalt (PA mixtures with different air void contents (15%, 20%, and 25% were subject to different clogging scenarios by using varying sediment loads (0, 500, and 1000 g/m2. Permeability experiments were carried out for each clogging scenario through a new rainfall simulator specially developed, tailored, and calibrated for the laboratory simulation of a wide range of rainfall events. Permeability measurements were taken under all different scenarios as a result of the combination of the different rainfall events (50, 100, and 150 mm/h simulated over the specimens of porous mixtures and the sediment loads applied to them. The results showed that the PC mixtures tested perform better than the PA ones in terms of infiltration capacity, showing less potential for clogging and being more easily cleaned by the wash-off produced by the simulated rainfall events.

  8. Assessing Clinical Research Capacity in Vietnam: A Framework for Strengthening Capability for Clinical Trials in Developing Countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Jonathan; Giang, Dao Duc; Iademarco, Michael F; Phung, Van Tt; Lau, Chuen-Yen; Quang, Nguyen Ngo

    2016-01-01

    Although improving health systems promises important benefits, most developing nations lack the resources to support nationally driven clinical research. Strengthened clinical research capacity can advance national health goals by supporting greater autonomy in aligning research with national priorities. From March through June 2010, we assessed six elements of clinical research capacity in Vietnam: research agenda; clinical investigators and biostatisticians; donors and sponsors; community involvement; scientific, ethical, safety, and quality oversight; and clinical research institutions. Assessments were drawn from interviews with investigators, Ministry of Health staff members, nongovernment organizations, and U.S. Mission staff members, and document review. Observations and recommendations were shared with collaborators. Reassessment in 2015 found growth in the number of clinical trials, improved regulation in human subjects protection and community engagement, and modest advances in research agenda setting. Training and investment in institutions remain challenging. A framework for assessing clinical research capacity can affirm strengths and weaknesses and guide the coordination of capacity-building efforts.

  9. Methods to Assess Geological CO2 Storage Capacity: Status and Best Practice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-08-01

    To understand the emission reduction potential of carbon capture and storage (CCS), decision makers need to understand the amount of CO2 that can be safely stored in the subsurface and the geographical distribution of storage resources. Estimates of storage resources need to be made using reliable and consistent methods. Previous estimates of CO2 storage potential for a range of countries and regions have been based on a variety of methodologies resulting in a correspondingly wide range of estimates. Consequently, there has been uncertainty about which of the methodologies were most appropriate in given settings, and whether the estimates produced by these methods were useful to policy makers trying to determine the appropriate role of CCS. In 2011, the IEA convened two workshops which brought together experts for six national surveys organisations to review CO2 storage assessment methodologies and make recommendations on how to harmonise CO2 storage estimates worldwide. This report presents the findings of these workshops and an internationally shared guideline for quantifying CO2 storage resources.

  10. Assessment of Surgical and Trauma Capacity in Potosí, Bolivia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blair, Kevin J; Boeck, Marissa A; Gallardo Barrientos, José Luis; Hidalgo López, José Luis; Helenowski, Irene B; Nwomeh, Benedict C; Shapiro, Michael B; Swaroop, Mamta

    Scaling up surgical and trauma care in low- and middle-income countries could prevent nearly 2 million annual deaths. Various survey instruments exist to measure surgical and trauma capacity, including Personnel, Infrastructure, Procedures, Equipment, and Supplies (PIPES) and International Assessment of Capacity for Trauma (INTACT). We sought to evaluate surgical and trauma capacity in the Bolivian department of Potosí using a combined PIPES and INTACT tool, with additional questions to further inform intervention targets. In June and July 2014 a combined PIPES and INTACT survey was administered to 20 government facilities in Potosí with a minimum of 1 operating room: 2 third-level, 10 second-level, and 8 first-level facilities. A surgeon, head physician, director, or obstetrician-gynecologist completed the survey. Additional personnel responded to 4 short-answer questions. Survey items were divided into subsections, and PIPES and INTACT indices calculated. Medians were compared via Wilcoxon rank sum and Kruskal-Wallis tests. Six of 20 facilities were located in the capital city and designated urban. Urban establishments had higher median PIPES (8.5 vs 6.7, P = .11) and INTACT (8.5 vs 6.9, P = .16) indices compared with rural. More than half of surgeons and anesthesiologists worked in urban hospitals. Urban facilities had higher median infrastructure and procedure scores compared with rural. Fifty-three individuals completed short-answer questions. Training was most desired in laparoscopic surgery and trauma management; less than half of establishments reported staff with trauma training. Surgical and trauma capacity in Potosí was most limited in personnel, infrastructure, and procedures at rural facilities, with greater personnel deficiencies than previously reported. Interventions should focus on increasing the number of surgical and anesthesia personnel in rural areas, with a particular focus on the reported desire for trauma management training. Results

  11. Assessment of the methane oxidation capacity of compacted soils intended for use as landfill cover materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rachor, Ingke; Gebert, Julia; Groengroeft, Alexander; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria

    2011-01-01

    The microbial oxidation of methane in engineered cover soils is considered a potent option for the mitigation of emissions from old landfills or sites containing wastes of low methane generation rates. A laboratory column study was conducted in order to derive design criteria that enable construction of an effective methane oxidising cover from the range of soils that are available to the landfill operator. Therefore, the methane oxidation capacity of different soils was assessed under simulated landfill conditions. Five sandy potential landfill top cover materials with varying contents of silt and clay were investigated with respect to methane oxidation and corresponding soil gas composition over a period of four months. The soils were compacted to 95% of their specific proctor density, resulting in bulk densities of 1.4-1.7 g cm -3 , reflecting considerably unfavourable conditions for methane oxidation due to reduced air-filled porosity. The soil water content was adjusted to field capacity, resulting in water contents ranging from 16.2 to 48.5 vol.%. The investigated inlet fluxes ranged from 25 to about 100 g CH 4 m -2 d -1 , covering the methane load proposed to allow for complete oxidation in landfill covers under Western European climate conditions and hence being suggested as a criterion for release from aftercare. The vertical distribution of gas concentrations, methane flux balances as well as stable carbon isotope studies allowed for clear process identifications. Higher inlet fluxes led to a reduction of the aerated zone, an increase in the absolute methane oxidation rate and a decline of the relative proportion of oxidized methane. For each material, a specific maximum oxidation rate was determined, which varied between 20 and 95 g CH 4 m -2 d -1 and which was positively correlated to the air-filled porosity of the soil. Methane oxidation efficiencies and gas profile data imply a strong link between oxidation capacity and diffusive ingress of

  12. Quantifying and modelling the carbon sequestration capacity of seagrass meadows--a critical assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macreadie, P I; Baird, M E; Trevathan-Tackett, S M; Larkum, A W D; Ralph, P J

    2014-06-30

    Seagrasses are among the planet's most effective natural ecosystems for sequestering (capturing and storing) carbon (C); but if degraded, they could leak stored C into the atmosphere and accelerate global warming. Quantifying and modelling the C sequestration capacity is therefore critical for successfully managing seagrass ecosystems to maintain their substantial abatement potential. At present, there is no mechanism to support carbon financing linked to seagrass. For seagrasses to be recognised by the IPCC and the voluntary C market, standard stock assessment methodologies and inventories of seagrass C stocks are required. Developing accurate C budgets for seagrass meadows is indeed complex; we discuss these complexities, and, in addition, we review techniques and methodologies that will aid development of C budgets. We also consider a simple process-based data assimilation model for predicting how seagrasses will respond to future change, accompanied by a practical list of research priorities. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Structural capacity assessment of WWER-1000 MW reactor containment. Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordanov, M.

    1999-01-01

    The objective of the project is to provide assessment of the structural behaviour and safety capacity of the WWER-1000 MW Reactor Building Containment at Kozloduy NPP under critical combination of loads according to the current international requirements. The analysis is focused on a realistic assessment of the Containment taking into account the non-linear shell behaviour of the pre-stressed reinforced concrete structure. Previous assessments of the status of pre stressing cables pointed out that the efficiency of the Containment as a final defence barrier for internal and external events depends on their reliability. Due to this, the experimental data obtained from embedded sensors (gauges) at pre-stressed shell structure is to be compared with the results from analytical investigations. The reliability of the WWER-1000 MW accident prevention system is under evaluation in the project. The Soviet standard design WWER-1000 MW type units installed in Kozloduy NPP were originally designed for a Safe Shutdown Earthquake (SSE) with a peak ground acceleration (PGA) of 0.1g. The new site seismicity studies revealed that the seismic hazard for the site significantly exceeds the originally estimated and a Review Level Earthquake (RLE) anchored to PGA=0.20g was proposed for re-assessment of the structures and equipment at Kozloduy NPP. The scope of the study is a re-assessment of the Containment structure under critical combination of loads according to the current safety and reliability requirements, including comparison between the Russian design requirements and the international regulations. Additionally, an investigation of the pre-stressing technology and the annual control of the cables' pre-stressing of the Containment is to be made. The crane influence on the dynamic behaviour of the Containment will be done as well as a study of the integrity of the Containment as a final defence barrier

  14. Ischemic Heart Disease and Work Disability in Patients Treated at the Internal Medicine Consultation and Assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Belkis Vicente Sánchez

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: ischemic heart disease represents a major challenge given the large number of people affected by this condition, its increasing contribution to overall mortality, the frequent disability resulting from it, and the complexity and high cost of its treatment. Objective: to describe the work disability caused by ischemic heart disease in patients treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality. Methods: a cross-sectional study was conducted including all patients with ischemic heart disease treated at the internal medicine consultation and assessed by the Expert Medical Labor Commission of Cienfuegos municipality from October 2012 to July 2013. The variables analyzed were: age, sex, occupation, years of work and accrued salary, clinical diagnosis, length of time the condition had been present and associated chronic diseases; existence of prior assessment by an Expert Medical Labor Commission and decision reached, previous days of sick leave and current decision of the commission. The data were analyzed using SPSS (version 18.0 and the results are shown in tables and graphs as numbers and percentages. Results: a predominance of men was observed. Forty two point nine percent were service workers and the average number of years of work was 24.60. Forty two point nine percent were previously assessed by the commission. Two hundred one point thirteen days of sick leave were granted and social security expenditure in a month was high. Diabetes mellitus was the most common chronic disease followed by hypertension, obesity and dyslipidemia. Of the workers previously assessed, half received permanent and temporary disability benefits. Conclusions: ischemic heart disease causes different degrees of disability. Its costs in terms of social security are increasing.

  15. Assessing capacity for sustainability of effective programs and policies in local health departments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tabak, Rachel G.; Duggan, Katie; Smith, Carson; Aisaka, Kristelle; Moreland-Russell, Sarah; Brownson, Ross C.

    2015-01-01

    Context Sustainability has been defined as the existence of structures and processes that allow a program to leverage resources to effectively implement and maintain evidence-based public health and is important in local health departments (LHDs) to retain the benefits of effective programs. Objective Explore the applicability of the Program Sustainability Framework in high- and low-capacity LHDs as defined by national performance standards. Design Case study interviews from June-July 2013. Standard qualitative methodology was used to code transcripts; codes were developed inductively and deductively. Setting Six geographically diverse LHD’s (selected from three high- and three low-capacity) Participants 35 LHD practitioners Main Outcome Measures Thematic reports explored the eight domains (Organizational Capacity, Program Adaptation, Program Evaluation, Communications, Strategic Planning, Funding Stability, Environmental Support, and Partnerships) of the Program Sustainability Framework. Results High-capacity LHDs described having environmental support, while low-capacity LHDs reported this was lacking. Both high- and low-capacity LHDs described limited funding; however, high-capacity LHDs reported greater funding flexibility. Partnerships were important to high- and low-capacity LHDs, and both described building partnerships to sustain programming. Regarding organizational capacity, high-capacity LHDs reported better access to and support for adequate staff and staff training compared to low-capacity LHDs. While high-capacity LHDs described integration of program evaluation into implementation and sustainability, low-capacity LHDs reported limited capacity for measurement specifically and evaluation generally. When high-capacity LHDs described program adoption, they discussed an opportunity to adapt and evaluate. Low-capacity LHDs struggled with programs requiring adaptation. High-capacity LHDs described higher quality communication than low-capacity LHDs. High

  16. Framework for assessing the capacity of a health ministry to conduct health policy processes--a case study from Tajikistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzoev, Tolib N; Green, Andrew; Van Kalliecharan, Ricky

    2015-01-01

    An adequate capacity of ministries of health (MOH) to develop and implement policies is essential. However, no frameworks were found assessing MOH capacity to conduct health policy processes within developing countries. This paper presents a conceptual framework for assessing MOH capacity to conduct policy processes based on a study from Tajikistan, a former Soviet republic where independence highlighted capacity challenges. The data collection for this qualitative study included in-depth interviews, document reviews and observations of policy events. Framework approach for analysis was used. The conceptual framework was informed by existing literature, guided the data collection and analysis, and was subsequently refined following insights from the study. The Tajik MOH capacity, while gradually improving, remains weak. There is poor recognition of wider contextual influences, ineffective leadership and governance as reflected in centralised decision-making, limited use of evidence, inadequate actors' participation and ineffective use of resources to conduct policy processes. However, the question is whether this is a reflection of lack of MOH ability or evidence of constraining environment or both. The conceptual framework identifies five determinants of robust policy processes, each with specific capacity needs: policy context, MOH leadership and governance, involvement of policy actors, the role of evidence and effective resource use for policy processes. Three underlying considerations are important for applying the capacity to policy processes: the need for clear focus, recognition of capacity levels and elements, and both ability and enabling environment. The proposed framework can be used in assessing and strengthening of the capacity of different policy actors. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Assessment of functional capacity of the musculoskeletal system in the context of work, daily living, and sport: A systematic review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wind, Haije; Gouttebarge, Vincent; Kuijer, P. Paul F. M.; Frings-Dresen, Monique H. W.

    2005-01-01

    The aim of this systematic review was to survey methods to assess the functional capacity of the musculoskeletal system within the context of work, daily activities, and sport. The following key words and synonyms were used: functional physical assessment, healthy/disabled subjects, and instruments.

  18. Assessment of capacity for Health Policy and Systems Research and Analysis in seven African universities: results from the CHEPSAA project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzoev, Tolib; Lê, Gillian; Green, Andrew; Orgill, Marsha; Komba, Adalgot; Esena, Reuben K; Nyapada, Linet; Uzochukwu, Benjamin; Amde, Woldekidan K; Nxumalo, Nonhlanhla; Gilson, Lucy

    2014-01-01

    The importance of health policy and systems research and analysis (HPSR+A) is widely recognized. Universities are central to strengthening and sustaining the HPSR+A capacity as they teach the next generation of decision-makers and health professionals. However, little is known about the capacity of universities, specifically, to develop the field. In this article, we report results of capacity self- assessments by seven universities within five African countries, conducted through the Consortium for Health Policy and Systems Analysis in Africa (CHEPSAA). The capacity assessments focused on both capacity ‘assets’ and ‘needs’, and covered the wider context, as well as organizational and individual capacity levels. Six thematic areas of capacity were examined: leadership and governance, organizations’ resources, scope of HPSR+A teaching and research, communication, networking and getting research into policy and practice (GRIPP), demand for HPRS+A and resource environment. The self-assessments by each university used combinations of document reviews, semi-structured interviews and staff surveys, followed by comparative analysis. A framework approach, guided by the six thematic areas, was used to analyse data. We found that HPSR+A is an international priority, and an existing activity in Africa, though still neglected field with challenges including its reliance on unpredictable international funding. All universities have capacity assets, such as ongoing HPSR+A teaching and research. There are, however, varying levels of assets (such as differences in staff numbers, group sizes and amount of HPSR+A teaching and research), which, combined with different capacity needs at all three levels (such as individual training, improvement in systems for quality assurance and fostering demand for HPSR+A work), can shape a future agenda for HPSR+A capacity strengthening. Capacity assets and needs at different levels appear related. Possible integrated strategies for

  19. Ultimate pressure capacity assessment of R FRC PCCV based on the tension stiffening tests

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, Dae Gi; Choun, Young Sun

    2012-01-01

    The use of fibers in concrete or cement composites can enhance the performance of structural elements. Fibers have been used for a cement mixture to increase the toughness and tensile strength, and to improve the cracking and deformation characteristics. The addition of fibers into concrete can improve the ductility and increase the tensile resistance of concrete structures. Recently, the application of fibers to prestressed concrete containment vessels (PCCVs) has been a major research topic. However, the tensile stiffening behavior of reinforced - fiber reinforced concrete (RFRC) is not fully developed yet especially for specimens using large diameter re bars. In nuclear power plant (NPP) PCCVs, large diameter re bars are applied. Therefore, the tensile stiffening behavior model should be developed to assess ultimate pressure capacity (UPC) of R FRC PCCVs. In this study, we modeled the tensile stiffening behavior of R FRC PCCVs by using recently developed model, and assessed the UPC of R FRC PCCVs. To do this, we performed tension stiffening test of R FRC with large diameter re bar

  20. Ultimate pressure capacity assessment of R FRC PCCV based on the tension stiffening tests

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hahm, Dae Gi; Choun, Young Sun [KAERI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-10-15

    The use of fibers in concrete or cement composites can enhance the performance of structural elements. Fibers have been used for a cement mixture to increase the toughness and tensile strength, and to improve the cracking and deformation characteristics. The addition of fibers into concrete can improve the ductility and increase the tensile resistance of concrete structures. Recently, the application of fibers to prestressed concrete containment vessels (PCCVs) has been a major research topic. However, the tensile stiffening behavior of reinforced - fiber reinforced concrete (RFRC) is not fully developed yet especially for specimens using large diameter re bars. In nuclear power plant (NPP) PCCVs, large diameter re bars are applied. Therefore, the tensile stiffening behavior model should be developed to assess ultimate pressure capacity (UPC) of R FRC PCCVs. In this study, we modeled the tensile stiffening behavior of R FRC PCCVs by using recently developed model, and assessed the UPC of R FRC PCCVs. To do this, we performed tension stiffening test of R FRC with large diameter re bar.

  1. Assessing the Sodium Exchange Capacity in Rainfed and Irrigated Soils in the Mediterranean Basin Using GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luís Loures

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The soil exchange complex consists of colloidal materials on which ion exchange phenomena occur allowing it to attract, retain, and exchange elements that have opposite electric charges. Since their mineral constituents (clay and organic components (humus are mainly of a negative nature retained or exchanged ion are predominantly cations. Historically, failing to monitor parameters like the exchange sodium percentage (ESP has led to the permanent deterioration of soils which have become completely unproductive, largely reducing the sustainability of the agricultural systems. This study assesses how the sodium exchange capacity in irrigated soils differs from the rainfed ones through a sample survey that was carried out in the 15,031 ha of the Caia Irrigation Perimeter and adjacent areas, located in the municipalities of Elvas and Campo Maior, Portalegre District, Portugal where 14,280 georeferenced samples were collected from the top soil layer (0–20 cm, which were mixed 10 at a time so that each composite sample representing 11.1 ha. Then the samples were analyzed regarding the most relevant parameters for characterizing the soil exchange complex including the concentrations of exchanged bases and Cation Exchange Capacity (CEC. The results were arranged in a georeferenced grid with 1451 entries. Using classical statistical analysis and Geographic Information Systems (GIS software, it was possible to relate the individual soil samples analyzed with the cultural system practiced (irrigated or rainfed and the present soil group which permitted us to analyze the influence of the cultural system in the soil exchange complex. The distribution chart of the exchange sodium and CEC were created. The obtained results confirm a general decrease of CEC values and an increase of the exchangeable sodium content of irrigated explored soils when compared to the rainfed ones, putting forward noteworthy ideas not only regarding the necessary changes towards

  2. DISASTER RISK AND CAPACITIES ASSESSMENT IN THE NORTH-WEST PARTS OF RWANDA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J.ean Baptiste Nsengiyumva

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Republic of Rwanda is located in the Great lakes region of the central Africa. This landlocked country has historically suffered from periodic natural and manmade disasters, mainly in the form of droughts, floods and landslides impacting the agrarian economy and the country’s efforts towards sustainable development and poverty reduction. Vulnerability to Periodic natural disasters is a long term concern. The study therefore aims at conducting an assessment of disaster risks, vulnerabilities and coping capacities in Burera, Nyabihu and Musanze Districts affected floods and landslides in order to put in place mitigation strategies for disaster risks. Different methods and techniques were used to conduct this study including interviews, questionnaires, focus group discussions, field visits and observations, GIS and remote sensing among others. The analysis comprised the disaggregation of the hazards’ characteristics including description of the hazard, Triggering factors, Frequency, seasonality, Duration, sectors affected, impacts, time of recovery, intensity of the hazard and others. In terms of vulnerability. The analysis comprised physical, environmental, social, institutional, economic, profile of the most vulnerable populations, differentiation of impacts, and level of vulnerabilities. The study results showed that the Disaster Risk reduction is very possible through a comprehensive risk management. There is also a big need to expand capacity building in terms of disaster management, risk mapping to reach cell and village levels, put in place and operationalize early warning systems or hydro-meteorological hazards and many others in order to minimize the disaster risks and where possible to transform them into opportunities. All disasters are not preventable but mitigation is always possible.

  3. Assessing the Oldness and Capacity of Radiography and Ultrasound Equipments in Tehran University of Medical Sciences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salamati, Payman; Ghanaati, Hossein; Ghasemzadeh, Shahram; Jalali, Amir Hossein

    2013-01-01

    Maintenance of imaging equipment is a very important part of the management of all medical imaging centers. To assess the oldness and capacity of radiography and ultrasound equipment in Tehran University of Medical Sciences. The study was performed in 16 hospitals, 4 faculties and three healthcare centers of Tehran University of Medical Sciences. We evaluated all the X-ray equipment (including the simple plain and dental, panorex, mammography, fluoroscopy and C-arm X-Ray devices) and also simple and Doppler ultrasound machines in terms of the type and usage of the device, production year, quantity of utilization, location, brand and current condition. Among fixed X-ray systems, 15 were currently in use, two were junk, two were damaged, and one was not utilized. The mean (SD) of the usage of these was 2151 (2230) cliché/month, and the mean (SD) of the oldness was 16.9 (13.6) years. The oldness of radiography equipment in our study was more than 20 years in 16, between 11 and 20 in 46, and less than 10 years in 76 devices. The mean (SD) usage (patients/month) of simple and color Doppler devices were 234.1 (365.2) and 597.5 (505.3), respectively. The oldness of ultrasonography equipment in our study was more than 11 years in 12 and less than 10 years in 55 devices. We found that 22 (15.9%) of the radiography systems and two (3%) of the ultrasonography systems had been used for more than 20 years. Radiology equipment in Tehran University of Medical Sciences have potential capacity, but they need repair, and better maintenance and management and application of standards for the imaging system needs organized supervisory mechanisms

  4. AQUILA: assessment of quality in lower limb arthroplasty. An expert Delphi consensus for total knee and total hip arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pijls, Bart G; Dekkers, Olaf M; Middeldorp, Saskia; Valstar, Edward R; van der Heide, Huub J L; Van der Linden-Van der Zwaag, Henrica M J; Nelissen, Rob G H H

    2011-07-22

    In the light of both the importance and large numbers of case series and cohort studies (observational studies) in orthopaedic literature, it is remarkable that there is currently no validated measurement tool to appraise their quality. A Delphi approach was used to develop a checklist for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability of case series and cohorts in total hip and total knee arthroplasty with a focus on aseptic loosening. A web-based Delphi was conducted consisting of two internal rounds and three external rounds in order to achieve expert consensus on items considered relevant for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability. The internal rounds were used to construct a master list. The first external round was completed by 44 experts, 35 of them completed the second external round and 33 of them completed the third external round. Consensus was reached on an 8-item reporting quality checklist, a 6-item methodological checklist and a 22-item generalizability checklist. Checklist for reporting quality, methodological quality and generalizability for case series and cohorts in total hip and total knee arthroplasty were successfully created through this Delphi. These checklists should improve the accuracy, completeness and quality of case series and cohorts regarding total hip and total knee arthroplasty.

  5. IAEA expert assessment of basic issues associated with the preparation and implementation of the Temelin nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horak, B.

    1990-01-01

    An independent IAEA team composed of foreign experts was invited to Temelin with the aim to review the plant with respect to nuclear safety of the site, organization of construction activities, implementation of the construction including quality assurance aspects, preparation of operation, radioactive waste management, reactor core physics, and safety system design. Final reports conclude that the site has a low seismicity and favorable meteorological, hydrogeological and demographic conditions, and thus is well suited to the construction of a nuclear power plant. It has been suggested that within CEZ (the Czech Power Company, the utility operating all power plants in the Czech Republic), all activities associated with nuclear power should be concentrated in one division which would be responsible for safety supervision, technical assistance, and overall construction management. Particular efforts must be devoted to quality assurance. The expert team stated that in its design, the WWER-1000 reactor approaches state-of-the-art pressurized water reactors which are being launched in other countries. (M.D.)

  6. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-11-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts' exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1-4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. The Spearman correlation (r(s)) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately high (weighted kappa range=0.60-0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (r(s)=-0.37-0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47-78%) than airborne measurements (16-50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies.

  7. Assessment of the Ecosystem Services Capacity in Natural Protected Areas for Biodiversity Conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronchi, Silvia; Salata, Stefano

    2017-10-01

    Recently, in Italy, a legislative proposal has been set to reform the role and the functions of natural protected areas promoting their aggregation (or the abolition) pursuing a better efficiency for their administration and economic saving. The system of natural protected areas is composed of different conservation levels: there are the Natural parks, established in the ‘80 by national or regional institution for the safeguard of natural elements, the Natura 2000 -Habitat 92/43/CEE promoted by European Union, with conservation measures for maintaining or restoring habitats and species of Communitarian interest, and the local parks of supra-municipal interest (namely PLIS) created by single municipalities or their aggregation aimed at limiting the soil sealing process. The hierarchical level of protection has determined differences in the management of the areas which leads to various approaches and strategies for biodiversity conservation and integrity. In order to assess strengths and weaknesses of the legislative initiative, the new management framework should be designed, considering the ecosystem characteristics of each natural protected area to define the future opportunities and critics, rather than, in the extreme case, remove the level of protection due to the absence of valuable ecosystem conditions. The paper provides an operative support to better apply the legislative proposal investigating the dynamics that affect all protected areas using the land take process as a major threat to biodiversity conservation in natural zones. The land take process is explored using the Land Use Change analysis (LUCa) as a possible way to determine the impact and the environmental effects of land transitions. LUCa is also useful to determine the loss of protected zones capacity to support Ecosystem Services. Finally, the assessment of the Ecosystem Services Capacity (ESC) index expresses the ability of each LULC to provide ES and, in particular, the Ecological

  8. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of the Central African Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Ngbokoto, Francois A.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflict concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberly Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in the Central African Republic (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in the Central African Republic and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, two different methodologies were used: the volume and grade approach and the content per kilometer approach. Estimates are that approximately 39,000,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remain in the eastern and western zones of the CAR combined. This amount is roughly twice the total amount of diamonds reportedly exported from the Central African Republic since 1931. Production capacity is

  9. Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Mini; Toribio, Jenny-Ann; Scott, Angela Bullanday; Groves, Peter; Barnes, Belinda; Glass, Kathryn; Moloney, Barbara; Black, Amanda; Hernandez-Jover, Marta

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.

  10. Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System

    Science.gov (United States)

    This page provides an overview Cornell Mixing Zone Expert System water quality modeling and decision support system designed for environmental impact assessment of mixing zones resulting from wastewater discharge from point sources

  11. A multi-sector assessment of community organizational capacity for promotion of Chinese immigrant worker health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Jenny H-C; Thompson, Elaine A

    2017-12-01

    Community-based collaborative approaches have received increased attention as a means for addressing occupational health disparities. Organizational capacity, highly relevant to engaging and sustaining community partnerships, however, is rarely considered in occupational health research. To characterize community organizational capacity specifically relevant to Chinese immigrant worker health, we used a cross-sectional, descriptive design with 36 agencies from six community sectors in King County, Washington. Joint interviews, conducted with two representatives from each agency, addressed three dimensions of organizational capacity: organizational commitment, resources, and flexibility. Descriptive statistics were used to capture the patterning of these dimensions by community sector. Organizational capacity varied widely across and within sectors. Chinese and Pan-Asian service sectors indicated higher capacity for Chinese immigrant worker health than did Chinese faith-based, labor union, public, and Pan-ethnic nonprofit sectors. Variation in organizational capacity in community sectors can inform selection of collaborators for community-based, immigrant worker health interventions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Network Capacity Assessment and Increase in Systems with Intermittent Water Supply

    OpenAIRE

    Ilaya-Ayza, Amilkar Ernesto; Campbell-Gonzalez, Enrique; Pérez García, Rafael; Izquierdo Sebastián, Joaquín

    2016-01-01

    [EN] Water supply systems have been facing many challenges in recent decades due to the potential effects of climate change and rapid population growth. Water systems need to expand because of demographic growth. Therefore, evaluating and increasing system capacity is crucial. Specifically, we analyze network capacity as one of the main features of a system. When the network capacity starts to decrease, there is a risk that continuous supply will become intermittent. This paper discusses how...

  13. Theoretical and experimental research on the use of expert systems (ES in assessing risks of failure in metallurgical companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Iancu

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The systems’ engineering has reached an explosive development of intelligent systems technology which solves complex problems based on human expertise accumulated in the past and following the processes of learning and reasoning very similar to those of the biological brain. In this article, the concept of the proposed expert system is the result of interdisciplinary researches (computer science, management, accounting and business administration, etc., which are designed to provide a tool for top management work force of a listed metallurgical company. The inference machine will provide in the end score functions for Altman, Conan Holder model and rating which eventually can be combined into a single model that will forecast the company’s evolution in coming years.

  14. Development of an Index for the Assessment of Welfare of Finishing Pigs from Farm to Slaughter based on Expert Opinion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Pia; Rousing, Tine; Herskin, Mette S

    2017-01-01

    by aggregating 25 primarily animal-based measurements based on 38 experts opinion on inter-measurement and inter-stage weights. AWIs were calculated on animal level as the weighted sums of prevalence of the measurements, and were calculated for each of the six stages: pick-up pen, loading, transport, unloading......, lairage and race (AWIStage) and across the stages (AWIOverall). The AWIs were tested in 5 farms including a total of 45 fattening pigs delivered to two Danish abattoirs. Possible inter-relations between the AWI and heart rate measurements were examined. For each welfare measurement within stage......, this work has suggested a potential model for the aggregation of animal welfare measurements into animal welfare indexes for slaughter pigs on the day of slaughter. Further validation may allow simple comparison of the level of welfare between lorries, days, abattoirs etc. and may be used for future...

  15. Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane

    2018-01-01

    Introduction Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. Material and methods The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. Results A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room. PMID:29293635

  16. Development of an objective assessment tool for total laparoscopic hysterectomy: A Delphi method among experts and evaluation on a virtual reality simulator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Sophie; Aggarwal, Rajesh; Agostini, Aubert; Loundou, Anderson; Berdah, Stéphane; Crochet, Patrice

    2018-01-01

    Total Laparoscopic hysterectomy (LH) requires an advanced level of operative skills and training. The aim of this study was to develop an objective scale specific for the assessment of technical skills for LH (H-OSATS) and to demonstrate feasibility of use and validity in a virtual reality setting. The scale was developed using a hierarchical task analysis and a panel of international experts. A Delphi method obtained consensus among experts on relevant steps that should be included into the H-OSATS scale for assessment of operative performances. Feasibility of use and validity of the scale were evaluated by reviewing video recordings of LH performed on a virtual reality laparoscopic simulator. Three groups of operators of different levels of experience were assessed in a Marseille teaching hospital (10 novices, 8 intermediates and 8 experienced surgeons). Correlations with scores obtained using a recognised generic global rating tool (OSATS) were calculated. A total of 76 discrete steps were identified by the hierarchical task analysis. 14 experts completed the two rounds of the Delphi questionnaire. 64 steps reached consensus and were integrated in the scale. During the validation process, median time to rate each video recording was 25 minutes. There was a significant difference between the novice, intermediate and experienced group for total H-OSATS scores (133, 155.9 and 178.25 respectively; p = 0.002). H-OSATS scale demonstrated high inter-rater reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] = 0.930; pvirtual reality simulator. The implementation of this scale is expected to facilitate deliberate practice. Next steps should focus on evaluating the validity of the scale in the operating room.

  17. Speech-language pathologists' contribution to the assessment of decision-making capacity in aphasia: a survey of common practices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aldous, Kerryn; Tolmie, Rhiannon; Worrall, Linda; Ferguson, Alison

    2014-06-01

    Speech-language pathologists' scope of practice is currently unclear in relation to their contribution to the multi-disciplinary assessment of decision-making capacity for clients with aphasia and related neurogenic communication disorders. The primary aim of the current research study was to investigate the common practices of speech-language pathologists involved in assessments of decision-making capacity. The study was completed through the use of an online survey. There were 51 of 59 respondents who indicated involvement in evaluations of decision-making. Involvement in this kind of assessment was most commonly reported by speech-language pathologists working in inpatient acute and rehabilitation settings. Respondents reported using a variety of formal and informal assessment methods in their contributions to capacity assessment. Discussion with multidisciplinary team members was reported to have the greatest influence on their recommendations. Speech-language pathologists reported that they were dissatisfied with current protocols for capacity assessments in their workplace and indicated they would benefit from further education and training in this area. The findings of this study are discussed in light of their implications for speech-language pathology practice.

  18. Impact of the WHO FCTC over the first decade: a global evidence review prepared for the Impact Assessment Expert Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung-Hall, Janet; Craig, Lorraine; Gravely, Shannon; Sansone, Natalie; Fong, Geoffrey T

    2018-06-07

    To present findings of a narrative review on the implementation and effectiveness of 17 Articles of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) during the Treaty's first decade. Published reports on global FCTC implementation; searches of four databases through June 2016; hand-search of publications/online resources; tobacco control experts. WHO Convention Secretariat global progress reports (2010, 2012, 2014); 2015 WHO report on the global tobacco epidemic; studies of social, behavioural, health, economic and/or environmental impacts of FCTC policies. Progress in the implementation of 17 FCTC Articles was categorised (higher/intermediate/lower) by consensus. 128 studies were independently selected by multiple authors in consultation with experts. Implementation was highest for smoke-free laws, health warnings and education campaigns, youth access laws, and reporting/information exchange, and lowest for measures to counter industry interference, regulate tobacco product contents, promote alternative livelihoods and protect health/environment. Price/tax increases, comprehensive smoking and marketing bans, health warnings, and cessation treatment are associated with decreased tobacco consumption/health risks and increased quitting. Mass media campaigns and youth access laws prevent smoking initiation, decrease prevalence and promote cessation. There were few studies on the effectiveness of policies in several domains, including measures to prevent industry interference and regulate tobacco product contents. The FCTC has increased the implementation of measures across several policy domains, and these implementations have resulted in measurable impacts on tobacco consumption, prevalence and other outcomes. However, FCTC implementation must be accelerated, and Parties need to meet all their Treaty obligations and consider measures that exceed minimum requirements. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article

  19. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The meeting brought together more than forty

  20. Report of the Joint IPCC WG 2 and 3 expert meeting on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the 4. IPCC assessment report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-07-01

    The objectives for this meeting at Reunion Island were: - To feed new views from outside the climate change literature into the assessment of Working Group II (WG II) and WG III concerning the strongly interrelated area of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development. - to dove-tail zero-order draft texts of WG II and WG III (by the authors) with a view to ensuring that the treatment of Adaptation and Mitigation (AM) and Sustainable Development (SD) issues in both assessments is: 'Consistent, Complementary, Concise and Complete' ('4 Cs'). Furthermore, it was decided that the deliverable should be: - Recommendations for the writing team of WG II fourth Assessment Report (AR4) for incorporation of AM and SD issues in their First Order Draft (following their 2. Lead Author meeting in Cairns, 14-17 March 2005); - Recommendations for the writing team of WG III for incorporation in their Zero-order Draft (ZOD, to be completed 11 March 2005) The programme of the meeting was developed by the TSUs of WG II and III under the responsibility of the co-chairs of WG II and III. Day 1 the programme was devoted to a series of key note speakers, covering both potential user views as well as relevant new perspectives on the handling of AM and SD issues. These areas have not been fully addressed in the IPCC assessment work to date. The invited experts elaborated on 'new science areas' or 'new literatures' that inform parts of the AR4. The morning programme of Day 1 also contained an opening session featuring several ministers of Environment of neighbouring Small Island States, a representative of the European Parliament, and government officials from both the French Republic and Reunion Island. Day 2 and 3 were used for working sessions between authors on the integration of adaptation, mitigation and sustainable development into the contributions of Working Groups II and III of the AR4. The full programme is attached to the document. The

  1. Medical expert system for assessment of coronary heart disease destabilization based on the analysis of the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serkova, Valentina K.; Pavlov, Sergey V.; Romanava, Valentina A.; Monastyrskiy, Yuriy I.; Ziepko, Sergey M.; Kuzminova, Nanaliya V.; Wójcik, Waldemar; DzierŻak, RóŻa; Kalizhanova, Aliya; Kashaganova, Gulzhan

    2017-08-01

    Theoretical and practical substantiation of the possibility of the using the level of soluble vascular adhesion molecules (sVCAM) is performed. Expert system for the assessment of coronary heart disease (CHD) destabilization on the base of the analysis of soluble vascular adhesion molecules level is developed. Correlation between the increase of VCAM level and C-reactive protein (CRP) in patients with different variants of CHD progression is established. Association of chronic nonspecific vascular inflammation activation and CHD destabilization is shown. The expedience of parallel determination of sVCAM and CRP levels for diagnostics of CHD destabilization and forecast elaboration is noted.

  2. Numerical Activities of Daily Living - Financial (NADL-F): A tool for the assessment of financial capacities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arcara, Giorgio; Burgio, Francesca; Benavides-Varela, Silvia; Toffano, Roberta; Gindri, Patrizia; Tonini, Elisabetta; Meneghello, Francesca; Semenza, Carlo

    2017-09-07

    Financial capacity is the ability to manage one's own finances according to self-interests. Failure in financial decisions and lack of independence when dealing with money can affect people's quality of life and are associated with neuropsychological deficits or clinical conditions such as mild cognitive impairment or Alzheimer's disease. Despite the importance of evaluating financial capacity in the assessment of patients with neuropsychological and psychiatric disorders, only a few tools have been developed. In the present article, the authors introduce the Numerical Activities of Daily Living - Financial (NADL-F) test, a new test to assess financial capacity in clinical populations. The NADL-F is relatively short, yet it encompasses the most common activities involving financial capacities. The NADL-F proved to have satisfactory psychometric properties and overall good validity for measuring financial abilities. Associations with performance on basic neuropsychological tests were investigated, in particular focusing on mathematical abilities as cognitive correlates of financial capacity. Results indicate that the NADL-F could be a useful tool to guide treatments for the enhancement of financial capacities. By sharing all materials and procedures, the authors hope to promote the development of further versions of the NADL-F in different languages, taking into account the necessary adjustments related to different socio-cultural contexts.

  3. Self-Assessment of Physical Activity and Health Capacity of Students

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Plavina Liana

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The compulsory part of the individual life is physical activity. The physical activity is important for maintenance health capacity. Physical activity includes various kinds of components: physical activity during the leisure time (during the week days and weekend days, physical activity at home and in working place and physical activity during the transference from home to other place. Intensity of the physical activity could also be various from low to moderate and till high. Respondent of study groups were partly time students from Riga Medical College (RMC, n = 41, and from Riga Teacher Training and Education Management Academy (RTTEMA, n = 37. Respondents were students of both genders aged from 19 years till 53 years. We have provided the assessment of the principal anthropometric characteristics (height and body mass as well the anthropometric indices (body mass index (BMI and physical activity level questionnaire for students. Analysis of the data of physical activity questionnaire revealed that the average physical activity for students from RMC corresponded to low level of physical activity. The respondents from RRTEMA have moderate level of physical activity.

  4. Assessing cardiorespiratory capacity in older adults with major depression and Alzheimer disease

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Felipe Zanco

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective To assess cardiorespiratory capacity through subjective and objective tests in older adults diagnosed with major depression (MDD, Alzheimer disease (AD and healthy older adults. Methods Fifty seven subjects (72 ± 7.9 years were divided into three groups: MDD (n = 20, AD (n = 17 and Healthy (n = 20. The subjects answered Hamilton Scale (HAM-D, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE, Veterans Specific Activity Questionnaire (VSAQ and 2-minute Step test. Results MDD and AD showed lower scores than healthy group for Nomogram VSAQ (p < 0.001 and 2-minute Step (p = 0.009; p = 0.008, respectively. Adjusted for age and educational level, no differences among groups were observed for Step (MDD, p = 0.097; AD, p = 0.102. AD group did not present differences to healthy group for Step, when adjusting for MMSE (p = 0.261. Conclusions Despite the lower cardiorespiratory fitness of elderly patients with DM and DA have been found in both evaluations, the results should be viewed with caution, since the tests showed low correlation and different risk classifications of functional loss. In addition, age, level educational and cognitive performance are variables that can influence the performance objective evaluation.

  5. Assessing the air pollution carrying capacity of the northern Puget Sound region: an application of TAPAS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wood, M.C.; Childs J.E.; Marlatt, W.E.

    1980-09-01

    The technique discussed, the Topographic Air Pollution Analysis System (TAPAS), was developed to provide valid information on the dispersion capability of the lower atmosphere in areas characterized by complex terrain features. A study was undertaken to assess the air quality (SO/sub 2/) impacts associated with energy development in the region and to determine the constraints on energy development due to regulated limitations on the amount of air quality degradation allowable in the area. The emission constraint analysis for the northern Puget Sound region indicated that total SO/sub 2/ emissions in the core area (on an annual basis) are less than half of the amount that could be tolerated in the entire core region while maintaining ambient concentrations within state and federal annual average limitations. However, comparison of source characteristics with source location and grid cell emission restrictions indicated that localized areas adjacent to the major point sources are already far in excess of the SO/sub 2/ carrying capacity. This conclusion is supported by air quality monitoring data that indicate state standard violations at several receptor locations within the study area. The annual maps of wind patterns and PI-Matrix values show areas of both good and poor dispersion characteristics under the most prevalent flow conditions.

  6. Exploring pre-service science teachers' pedagogical capacity for formative assessment through analyses of student answers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydeniz, Mehmet; Dogan, Alev

    2016-05-01

    Background: There has been an increasing emphasis on empowering pre-service and in-service science teachers to attend student reasoning and use formative assessments to guide student learning in recent years. Purpose: The purpose of this study was to explore pre-service science teachers' pedagogical capacity for formative assessment. Sample: This study took place in Turkey. The participants include 53 pre-service science teachers in their final year of schooling. All but two of the participants are female. Design and methods: We used a mixed-methods methodology in pursing this inquiry. Participants analyzed 28 responses to seven two-tiered questions given by four students of different ability levels. We explored their ability to identify the strengths and weaknesses in students' answers. We paid particular attention to the things that the pre-service science teachers noticed in students' explanations, the types of inferences they made about students' conceptual understanding, and the affordances of pedagogical decisions they made. Results: The results show that the majority of participants made an evaluative judgment (i.e. the answer is correct or incorrect) in their analyses of students' answers. Similarly, the majority of the participants recognized the type of mistake that the students made. However, they failed to successfully elaborate on fallacies, limitations, or strengths in student reasoning. We also asked the participants to make pedagogical decisions related to what needs to be done next in order to help the students to achieve academic objectives. Results show that 8% of the recommended instructional strategies were of no affordance, 64% of low-affordance, and 28% were of high affordance in terms of helping students achieve the academic objectives. Conclusion: If our goal is to improve pre-service science teachers' noticing skills, and the affordance of feedback that they provide, engaging them in activities that asks them to attend to students' ideas

  7. Qualitative study to develop processes and tools for the assessment and tracking of African institutions' capacity for operational health research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallis, Selina; Cole, Donald C; Gaye, Oumar; Mmbaga, Blandina T; Mwapasa, Victor; Tagbor, Harry; Bates, Imelda

    2017-09-05

    Research is key to achieving global development goals. Our objectives were to develop and test an evidence-informed process for assessing health research management and support systems (RMSS) in four African universities and for tracking interventions to address capacity gaps. Four African universities. 83 university staff and students from 11 cadres. A literature-informed 'benchmark' was developed and used to itemise all components of a university's health RMSS. Data on all components were collected during site visits to four African universities using interview guides, document reviews and facilities observation guides. Gaps in RMSS capacity were identified against the benchmark and institutional action plans developed to remedy gaps. Progress against indicators was tracked over 15 months and common challenges and successes identified. Common gaps in operational health research capacity included no accessible research strategy, a lack of research e-tracking capability and inadequate quality checks for proposal submissions and contracts. Feedback indicated that the capacity assessment was comprehensive and generated practical actions, several of which were no-cost. Regular follow-up helped to maintain focus on activities to strengthen health research capacity in the face of challenges. Identification of each institutions' strengths and weaknesses against an evidence-informed benchmark enabled them to identify gaps in in their operational health research systems, to develop prioritised action plans, to justify resource requests to fulfil the plans and to track progress in strengthening RMSS. Use of a standard benchmark, approach and tools enabled comparisons across institutions which has accelerated production of evidence about the science of research capacity strengthening. The tools could be used by institutions seeking to understand their strengths and to address gaps in research capacity. Research capacity gaps that were common to several institutions could be

  8. Technology Assessment of High Capacity Data Storage Systems: Can We Avoid a Data Survivability Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halem, M.; Shaffer, F.; Palm, N.; Salmon, E.; Raghavan, S.; Kempster, L.

    1998-01-01

    This technology assessment of long-term high capacity data storage systems identifies an emerging crisis of severe proportions related to preserving important historical data in science, healthcare, manufacturing, finance and other fields. For the last 50 years, the information revolution, which has engulfed all major institutions of modem society, centered itself on data-their collection, storage, retrieval, transmission, analysis and presentation. The transformation of long term historical data records into information concepts, according to Drucker, is the next stage in this revolution towards building the new information based scientific and business foundations. For this to occur, data survivability, reliability and evolvability of long term storage media and systems pose formidable technological challenges. Unlike the Y2K problem, where the clock is ticking and a crisis is set to go off at a specific time, large capacity data storage repositories face a crisis similar to the social security system in that the seriousness of the problem emerges after a decade or two. The essence of the storage crisis is as follows: since it could take a decade to migrate a peta-byte of data to a new media for preservation, and the life expectancy of the storage media itself is only a decade, then it may not be possible to complete the transfer before an irrecoverable data loss occurs. Over the last two decades, a number of anecdotal crises have occurred where vital scientific and business data were lost or would have been lost if not for major expenditures of resources and funds to save this data, much like what is happening today to solve the Y2K problem. A pr-ime example was the joint NASA/NSF/NOAA effort to rescue eight years worth of TOVS/AVHRR data from an obsolete system, which otherwise would have not resulted in the valuable 20-year long satellite record of global warming. Current storage systems solutions to long-term data survivability rest on scalable architectures

  9. Hippocampal volume change measurement: quantitative assessment of the reproducibility of expert manual outlining and the automated methods FreeSurfer and FIRST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulder, Emma R; de Jong, Remko A; Knol, Dirk L; van Schijndel, Ronald A; Cover, Keith S; Visser, Pieter J; Barkhof, Frederik; Vrenken, Hugo

    2014-05-15

    To measure hippocampal volume change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), expert manual delineation is often used because of its supposed accuracy. It has been suggested that expert outlining yields poorer reproducibility as compared to automated methods, but this has not been investigated. To determine the reproducibilities of expert manual outlining and two common automated methods for measuring hippocampal atrophy rates in healthy aging, MCI and AD. From the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), 80 subjects were selected: 20 patients with AD, 40 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 20 healthy controls (HCs). Left and right hippocampal volume change between baseline and month-12 visit was assessed by using expert manual delineation, and by the automated software packages FreeSurfer (longitudinal processing stream) and FIRST. To assess reproducibility of the measured hippocampal volume change, both back-to-back (BTB) MPRAGE scans available for each visit were analyzed. Hippocampal volume change was expressed in μL, and as a percentage of baseline volume. Reproducibility of the 1-year hippocampal volume change was estimated from the BTB measurements by using linear mixed model to calculate the limits of agreement (LoA) of each method, reflecting its measurement uncertainty. Using the delta method, approximate p-values were calculated for the pairwise comparisons between methods. Statistical analyses were performed both with inclusion and exclusion of visibly incorrect segmentations. Visibly incorrect automated segmentation in either one or both scans of a longitudinal scan pair occurred in 7.5% of the hippocampi for FreeSurfer and in 6.9% of the hippocampi for FIRST. After excluding these failed cases, reproducibility analysis for 1-year percentage volume change yielded LoA of ±7.2% for FreeSurfer, ±9.7% for expert manual delineation, and ±10.0% for FIRST. Methods ranked the same for reproducibility of 1

  10. Medical Physics expert and competence in radiation protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vano, E.; Lamn, I. N.; Guerra, A. del; Van Kleffens, H. J.

    2003-01-01

    The Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM on health protection of individuals against the dangers of ionizing radiation in relation to medical exposure, defines the Medical Physical Expert as an expert in radiation physics or radiation technology applied to exposure, within the scope of the Directive, whose training and competence to act is recognized by the competent authorities; and who, as appropriate, acts or gives advice on patient dosimetry, on the development and use of complex techniques and equipment, on optimization, on quality assurance, including quality control, and on other matters relating to radiation protection, concerning exposure within the scope of this Directive. As a consequence, it might be implied that his competence in radiation protection should also cover the staff and the public. In fact, the training programmes of medical physics experts include all the aspects concerning these topics. Some confusion could arise in the medical area when the Qualified Expert defined in the Council Directive 96/29/Euratom laying down basic safety standards for the protection of the health of workers and the general public against the dangers arising from ionizing radiation is considered. The Qualified Expert is defined as a person having the knowledge and training needed to carry out physical, technical or radiochemical tests enabling doses to be assessed, and to give advice in order to ensure effective protection of individuals and the correct operation of protective equipment, whose capacity to act a qualified expert is recognized by the competent authorities. A qualified expert may be assigned the technical responsibility for the tasks of radiation protection of workers and members of the public. In Europe, the Qualified Expert is acting at present in the Medical Area in countries where there are not enough Medical Physics Experts or in countries where this role was established before the publication of the Council Directive 97/43/EURATOM. Now, the coherent

  11. Can a 15m-overground wheelchair sprint be used to assess wheelchair-specific anaerobic work capacity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Scheer, Jan W.; de Groot, Sonja; Vegter, Riemer J. K.; Veeger, DirkJan (H. E. J. ); van der Woude, Lucas H. V.

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether outcomes based on stopwatch time and power output (PO) over a 15m-overground wheelchair sprint test can be used to assess wheelchair-specific anaerobic work capacity, by studying their relationship with outcomes on a Wingate-based 30s-wheelchair ergometer sprint

  12. Can a 15m-overground wheelchair sprint be used to assess wheelchair-specific anaerobic work capacity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Scheer, J.W.; De Groot, S.; Vegter, R.J.K.; Veeger, H.E.J.; van der Woude, L.H.V.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate whether outcomes based on stopwatch time and power output (PO) over a 15. m-overground wheelchair sprint test can be used to assess wheelchair-specific anaerobic work capacity, by studying their relationship with outcomes on a Wingate-based 30. s-wheelchair ergometer sprint

  13. Comprehensive Diagnostic Assessment of Health Status of Patients with Asthma or COPD : A Delphi Panel Study among Dutch Experts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Akker, Edmée F M M; van't Hul, Alex J.; Birnie, Erwin; Chavannes, Niels H.; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H; In't Veen, Johannes C C M

    2017-01-01

    A comprehensive diagnostic assessment is needed to improve understanding of the health status of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. Therefore, this study investigated which components and subsequent instruments should be part of a holistic assessment in secondary

  14. Use of expert judgement in NUREG-1150

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortiz, N.R.; Wheeler, T.A.; Breeding, R.J.; Hora, S.; Meyer, M.A.; Kenney, R.L.

    1991-01-01

    The explicit expert judgment process used in NUREG-1150, 'Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five US Nuclear Plants', is discussed in this paper. The main steps of the process are described, including selection of issues and experts, elicitation training, presentation of issues to the experts, preparation of issue analyses by the experts, discussion of issue analyses and elicitation, and recomposition and aggregation of results. To demonstrate the application of the expert judgment process to NUREG-1150, two issues are summarized: one from the accident frequency analysis, and one from the accident progression analysis. Recommendations and insights are provided to improve the use of explicit expert judgment in complex technical issues. (orig.)

  15. Strategic assessment of capacity consumption in railway networks: Framework and model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Lars Wittrup; Landex, Alex; Nielsen, Otto Anker

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we develop a new framework for strategic planning purposes to calculate railway infrastructure occupation and capacity consumption in networks, independent of a timetable. Furthermore, a model implementing the framework is presented. In this model different train sequences...... are obtained efficiently with little input. The case illustrates the model's ability to quantify the capacity gain from infrastructure scenario to infrastructure scenario which can be used to increase the number of trains or improve the robustness of the system....

  16. Assessing employability capacities and career adaptability in a sample of human resource professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melinde Coetzee

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Employers have come to recognise graduates’ employability capacities and their ability to adapt to new work demands as important human capital resources for sustaining a competitive business advantage. Research purpose: The study sought (1 to ascertain whether a significant relationship exists between a set of graduate employability capacities and a set of career adaptability capacities and (2 to identify the variables that contributed the most to this relationship. Motivation for the study: Global competitive markets and technological advances are increasingly driving the demand for graduate knowledge and skills in a wide variety of jobs. Contemporary career theory further emphasises career adaptability across the lifespan as a critical skill for career management agency. Despite the apparent importance attached to employees’ employability and career adaptability, there seems to be a general lack of research investigating the association between these constructs. Research approach, design and method: A cross-sectional, quantitative research design approach was followed. Descriptive statistics, Pearson product-moment correlations and canonical correlation analysis were performed to achieve the objective of the study. The participants (N = 196 were employed in professional positions in the human resource field and were predominantly early career black people and women. Main findings: The results indicated positive multivariate relationships between the variables and showed that lifelong learning capacities and problem solving, decision-making and interactive skills contributed the most to explaining the participants’ career confidence, career curiosity and career control. Practical/managerial implications: The study suggests that developing professional graduates’ employability capacities may strengthen their career adaptability. These capacities were shown to explain graduates’ active engagement in career management

  17. Status Report on Activities of the Systems Assessment Task Force, OECD-NEA Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bragg-Sitton, Shannon Michelle [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-09-01

    The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development /Nuclear Energy Agency (OECD/NEA) Nuclear Science Committee approved the formation of an Expert Group on Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) for LWRs (EGATFL) in 2014. Chaired by Kemal Pasamehmetoglu, INL Associate Laboratory Director for Nuclear Science and Technology, the mandate for the EGATFL defines work under three task forces: (1) Systems Assessment, (2) Cladding and Core Materials, and (3) Fuel Concepts. Scope for the Systems Assessment task force includes definition of evaluation metrics for ATF, technology readiness level definition, definition of illustrative scenarios for ATF evaluation, parametric studies, and selection of system codes. The Cladding and Core Materials and Fuel Concepts task forces will identify gaps and needs for modeling and experimental demonstration; define key properties of interest; identify the data necessary to perform concept evaluation under normal conditions and illustrative scenarios; identify available infrastructure (internationally) to support experimental needs; and make recommendations on priorities. Where possible, considering proprietary and other export restrictions (e.g., International Traffic in Arms Regulations), the Expert Group will facilitate the sharing of data and lessons learned across the international group membership. The Systems Assessment Task Force is chaired by Shannon Bragg-Sitton (INL), while the Cladding Task Force will be chaired by a representative from France (Marie Moatti, Electricite de France [EdF]) and the Fuels Task Force will be chaired by a representative from Japan (Masaki Kurata, Japan Atomic Energy Agency [JAEA]). This report provides an overview of the Systems Assessment Task Force charter and status of work accomplishment.

  18. Network Capacity Assessment and Increase in Systems with Intermittent Water Supply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amilkar E. Ilaya-Ayza

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Water supply systems have been facing many challenges in recent decades due to the potential effects of climate change and rapid population growth. Water systems need to expand because of demographic growth. Therefore, evaluating and increasing system capacity is crucial. Specifically, we analyze network capacity as one of the main features of a system. When the network capacity starts to decrease, there is a risk that continuous supply will become intermittent. This paper discusses how network expansion carried out throughout the network life span typically reduces network capacity, thus transforming a system originally designed to work with continuous supply into a system with intermittent supply. A method is proposed to expand the network capacity in an environment of economic scarcity through a greedy algorithm that enables the definition of a schedule for pipe modification stages, and thus efficiently expands the network capacity. This method is, at the same time, an important step in the process of changing a water system from intermittent back to continuous supply—an achievement that remains one of the main challenges related to water and health in developing countries.

  19. A systematic assessment of the current capacity to act in nutrition in West Africa: cross-country similarities and differences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Sodjinou

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although it is widely accepted that lack of capacity is one of the barriers to scaling up nutrition in West Africa, there is a paucity of information about what capacities exist and the capacities that need to be developed to accelerate progress toward improved nutrition outcomes in the region. Objective: To systematically assess the current capacity to act in nutrition in the West Africa region and explore cross-country similarities and differences. Design: Data were collected from 13 West African countries through interviews with government officials, key development partners, tertiary-level training institutions, and health professional schools. The assessment was based on a conceptual framework of four interdependent levels (tools; skills; staff and infrastructure; and structures, systems and roles. In each of the surveyed countries, we assessed capacity assets and gaps at individual, organizational, and systemic levels. Results: Important similarities and differences in capacity assets and gaps emerged across all the surveyed countries. There was strong momentum to improve nutrition in nearly all the surveyed countries. Most of the countries had a set of policies on nutrition in place and had set up multisectoral, multi-stakeholder platforms to coordinate nutrition activities, although much remained to be done to improve the effectiveness of these platforms. Many initiatives aimed to reduce undernutrition were ongoing in the region, but there did not seem to be clear coordination between them. Insufficient financial resources to implement nutrition activities were a major problem in all countries. The bulk of financial allocations for nutrition was provided by development partners, even though some countries, such as Niger, Nigeria, and Senegal, had a national budget line for nutrition. Sporadic stock-outs of nutrition supplies were reported in most of the countries as a result of a weak logistic and supply chain system. They

  20. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments

  1. From Risk Analysis to the Safety Case. Values in Risk Assessments. A Report Based on Interviews with Experts in the Nuclear Waste Programs in Sweden and Finland. A Report from the RISCOM II Project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Drottz Sjoeberg, Britt-Marie [Norwegian Univ. of Science and Technology, Trondheim (Norway). Dept. of Psychology

    2004-06-01

    The report focuses on values in risk assessment, and is based on interviews with safety assessment experts and persons working at the national authorities in Sweden and Finland working in the area of nuclear waste management. The interviews contained questions related to definitions of risk and safety, standards, constraints and degrees of freedom in the work, data collections, reliability and validity of systems and the safety assessments, as well as communication between experts, and experts and non-experts. The results pointed to an increased amount of data and relevant factors considered in the analyses over time, changing the work content and process from one of risk analysis to a multifaceted teamwork towards the assessment of 'the safety case'. The multifaceted systems approach highlighted the increased importance of investigating assumptions underlying e.g. integration of diverse systems, and simplification procedures. It also highlighted the increased reliance on consensus building processes within the extended expert group, the importance of adequate communication abilities within the extended expert group, as well as the importance of transparency and communication relative the larger society. The results are discussed with reference to e.g. Janis 'groupthink' theory and Kuhns ideas of paradigmatic developments in science. It is concluded that it is well advised, in addition to the ordinary challenges of the work, to investigate also the implicit assumptions involved in the work processes to further enhance the understanding of safety assessments.

  2. Assessment of global trends and competitiveness of domestic scientific and technological capacity in the field of the plants cultivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. V. Cherchenko

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The patent and market analysis one of the most intensive and rapidly developing technology areas – developing new ways of breeding, hybridization and changes in genetic characteristics of cultivated plants was made for the assessment of the potential of the Russian agroindustry. Special attention is paid to new technological the areas identified by experts among the most promising for the development of domestic agricultural production: the development of new methods of obtaining high-performance plant varieties; the development of fundamentally new approaches in biotechnology to accelerate breeding of agricultural plants based on genomic technologies and DNA labeling (marker assisted selection.

  3. Energy from gas hydrates - assessing the opportunities and challenges for Canada: report of the expert panel on gas hydrates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-09-01

    Gas hydrates form when water and natural gas combine at low temperatures and high pressures in regions of permafrost and in marine subseafloor sediments. Estimates suggest that the total amount of natural gas bound in hydrate form may exceed all conventional gas resources, or even the amount of all combined hydrocarbon energy. Gas from gas hydrate could provide a potentially vast new source of energy to offset declining supplies of conventional natural gas in North America and to provide greater energy security for countries such as Japan and India that have limited domestic sources. However, complex issues would need to be addressed if gas hydrate were to become a large part of the energy future of Canada. Natural Resources Canada asked the Council of Canadian Academies to assemble a panel of experts to examine the challenges for an acceptable operational extraction of gas hydrates in Canada. This report presented an overview of relevant contextual background, including some basic science; the medium-term outlook for supply and demand in markets for natural gas; broad environmental issues related to gas hydrate in its natural state and as a fuel; and an overview of Canada's contribution to knowledge about gas hydrate in the context of ongoing international research activity. The report also presented current information on the subject and what would be required to delineate and quantify the resource. Techniques for extracting gas from gas hydrate were also outlined. The report also addressed safety issues related to gas hydrate dissociation during drilling operations or release into the atmosphere; the environmental issues associated with potential leakage of methane into the atmosphere and with the large volumes of water produced during gas hydrate dissociation; and jurisdictional and local community issues that would need to be resolved in order to proceed with the commercial exploitation of gas hydrate. It was concluded that there does not appear to be

  4. Methane Risk Assessment in Underground Mines by Means of a Survey by the Panel of Experts (Sope

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugeniusz Krause

    2014-01-01

    Originality/value: The obtained values of the indicators of methane risk assessment and analysis of their changes showed that the proposed method can be an important element in the design and construction of a modern methane safety system in coal mines. It provides the possibility of controlling this risk and enables the minimization of its consequences in accordance with the criteria of their acceptance, adopted in this paper. The method does not replace the currently used methods of methane risk assessment, but complements them in a significant and modern way.

  5. Reliability and validity of expert assessment based on airborne and urinary measures of nickel and chromium exposure in the electroplating industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Cheng; Coble, Joseph B; Deziel, Nicole C.; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Lu, Wei; Stewart, Patricia A; Friesen, Melissa C

    2014-01-01

    The reliability and validity of six experts’ exposure ratings were evaluated for 64 nickel-exposed and 72 chromium-exposed workers from six Shanghai electroplating plants based on airborne and urinary nickel and chromium measurements. Three industrial hygienists and three occupational physicians independently ranked the exposure intensity of each metal on an ordinal scale (1–4) for each worker's job in two rounds: the first round was based on responses to an occupational history questionnaire and the second round also included responses to an electroplating industry-specific questionnaire. Spearman correlation (rs) was used to compare each rating's validity to its corresponding subject-specific arithmetic mean of four airborne or four urinary measurements. Reliability was moderately-high (weighted kappa range=0.60–0.64). Validity was poor to moderate (rs= -0.37–0.46) for both airborne and urinary concentrations of both metals. For airborne nickel concentrations, validity differed by plant. For dichotomized metrics, sensitivity and specificity were higher based on urinary measurements (47–78%) than airborne measurements (16–50%). Few patterns were observed by metal, assessment round, or expert type. These results suggest that, for electroplating exposures, experts can achieve moderately-high agreement and (reasonably) distinguish between low and high exposures when reviewing responses to in-depth questionnaires used in population-based case-control studies. PMID:24736099

  6. Assessment of hospital surge capacity using the MACSIM simulation system: a pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennquist Montán, K; Riddez, L; Lennquist, S; Olsberg, A C; Lindberg, H; Gryth, D; Örtenwall, P

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to use a simulation model developed for the scientific evaluation of methodology in disaster medicine to test surge capacity (SC) in a major hospital responding to a simulated major incident with a scenario copied from a real incident. The tested hospital was illustrated on a system of magnetic boards, where available resources, staff, and patients treated in the hospital at the time of the test were illustrated. Casualties were illustrated with simulation cards supplying all data required to determine procedures for diagnosis and treatment, which all were connected to real consumption of time and resources. The first capacity-limiting factor was the number of resuscitation teams that could work parallel in the emergency department (ED). This made it necessary to refer severely injured to other hospitals. At this time, surgery (OR) and intensive care (ICU) had considerable remaining capacity. Thus, the reception of casualties could be restarted when the ED had been cleared. The next limiting factor was lack of ventilators in the ICU, which permanently set the limit for SC. At this time, there was still residual OR capacity. With access to more ventilators, the full surgical capacity of the hospital could have been utilized. The tested model was evaluated as an accurate tool to determine SC. The results illustrate that SC cannot be determined by testing one single function in the hospital, since all functions interact with each other and different functions can be identified as limiting factors at different times during the response.

  7. An Assessment of Institutional Capacity for Integrated Landscape Management in Eastern Cameroon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, H Carolyn Peach

    2018-07-01

    Landscape approaches have become prominent in efforts to address issues of conservation and development through bringing together different actors and sectors, to reconcile diverse land uses, and promote synergies. Some have suggested that integrated landscape management approaches are consistent with the goals of REDD+ and offer a strategy to address multiple goals of climate change mitigation, biodiversity conservation, maintenance of ecosystem services, and socio-economic development. Institutional or governance arrangements have been shown to be a critical component in influencing outcomes in landscapes. Using diverse methodologies, this study investigated the capacity of institutions to support the planning, implementation, and resource mobilization needed to integrate climate change mitigation, conservation, and livelihood goals in a forest mosaic landscape in East Cameroon. Results showed that diverse institutions are present in the landscape, including institutions of relevant government agencies, local government, local non-government, the private sector, and hybrid institutions of conservation, development and research institutions. However, the overall institutional capacity for integrated landscape planning and management in the study area is limited, although some institutions exhibit increased capacity in some areas over others. Multiple strategies can be employed to build the necessary human, financial, and leadership capacity, and facilitate the institutional planning and coordination that is foundational to multi-stakeholder landscape governance. Given the complexity of integrating climate change mitigation, conservation and livelihood goals in a landscape, building such institutional capacity is a long term endeavour that requires sustained effort and ongoing financial, technical and human resource support.

  8. ParticipACTION: Baseline assessment of the 'new ParticipACTION': A quantitative survey of Canadian organizational awareness and capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bauman Adrian

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background ParticipACTION is a Canadian physical activity (PA communications and social marketing organization that was relaunched in 2007 after a six-year hiatus. This study assesses the baseline awareness and capacity of Canadian organizations that promote physical activity, to adopt, implement and promote ParticipACTION's physical activity campaign. The three objectives were: (1 to determine organizational awareness of both the 'original' and 'new' ParticipACTION; (2 to report baseline levels of three organizational capacity domains (i.e., to adopt, implement and externally promote physical activity initiatives; and, (3 to explore potential differences in those domains based on organizational size, sector and primary mandate. Methods Organizations at local, provincial/territorial, and national levels were sent an invitation via email prior to the official launch of ParticipACTION to complete an on-line survey. The survey assessed their organization's capacity to adopt, implement and externally promote a new physical activity campaign within their organizational mandates. Descriptive statistics were employed to address the first two study objectives. A series of one-way analysis of variance were conducted to examine the third objective. Results The response rate was 29.7% (268/902. The majority of responding organizations had over 40 employees and had operated for over 10 years. Education was the most common primary mandate, followed by sport and recreation. Organizations were evenly distributed between government and not-for-profits. Approximately 96% of respondents had heard of the 'original' ParticipACTION while 54.6% had heard of the 'new' ParticipACTION (Objective 1. Findings indicate good organizational capacity in Canada to promote physical activity (Objective 2 based on reported means of approximately 4.0 (on 5-point scales for capacity to adopt, implement, and externally promote new physical activity campaigns. Capacity to

  9. Knowledge Acquisition and Memory Effects Involving an Expert System Designed as a Learning Tool for Internal Control Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenard, Mary Jane

    2003-01-01

    The assessment of internal control is a consideration in all financial statement audits, as stressed by the Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) No. 78. According to this statement, "the auditor should obtain an understanding of internal control sufficient to plan the audit" (Accounting Standards Board, 1995, p. 1). Therefore, an…

  10. Assessing the capacity of zero valent iron nanofluids to remediate NAPL-polluted porous media

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tsakiroglou, Christos, E-mail: ctsakir@iceht.forth.gr [Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas-Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Stadiou street, Platani, 26504 Patras (Greece); Terzi, Katerina; Sikinioti-Lock, Alexandra [Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas-Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Stadiou street, Platani, 26504 Patras (Greece); Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Patras, 26504 Patras (Greece); Hajdu, Kata; Aggelopoulos, Christos [Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas-Institute of Chemical Engineering Sciences, Stadiou street, Platani, 26504 Patras (Greece)

    2016-09-01

    A variety of aqueous suspensions (nanofluids) of zero-valent nano-particles (nZVI) are prepared by wet chemistry techniques, their stability and longevity is evaluated by physic-chemical methods of characterization, and their reactivity toward the dechlorination of per-chloro-ethylene (PCE) is examined with tests in batch reactors. For assessing the mobility, longevity and reactivity of nZVI suspensions (nanofluids), under flow-through conditions, visualization multiphase flow and transport tests are performed on a glass-etched pore network. The nZVI breakthrough curves are constructed by measuring the transient variation of the iron concentration in the effluent with atomic absorption spectroscopy. The capacity of nZVI to remediate the bulk phase of PCE is quantified by detecting the mass loss rate of PCE ganglia trapped in glass-etched pore networks during the continuous injection of nZVI suspension or pure water. The nZVI injection in porous media is simulated as an advection- dispersion process by accounting for the attachment/detachment of nanoparticles on the pore-walls, and describing the kinetics of PCE dissolution and reaction by 1st order equations. Visualization experiments reveal that the gradual elimination of PCE ganglia by the injected nZVI is associated with the preferential “erosion” of the upstream interfacial regions. The step controlling the overall process kinetics might be either (i) the enhanced PCE dissolution or (ii) the direct reaction of bulk PCE with the nZVI deposited upon the ganglia interfaces. Inverse modeling of the experiments under the simplifying assumption of one active mechanism indicates that the estimated kinetic coefficients are increasing functions of the flow rate. - Highlights: • The PCE remediation by nZVI is studied with visualization tests on pore networks. • The remediation of PCE ganglia by nZVI follows a non-uniform “erosion” pattern. • The preferential erosion of the upstream interfacial regions of

  11. Assessing Community Coalition Capacity and its Association with Underage Drinking Prevention Effectiveness in the Context of the SPF SIG.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flewelling, Robert L; Hanley, Sean M

    2016-10-01

    Community coalitions are a prominent organizational structure through which community-based substance abuse prevention efforts are implemented. There is little empirical evidence, however, regarding the association between coalition attributes and success in achieving community-level reductions in substance abuse behaviors. In this study, we assessed the relationship between coalition capacity, based on coalition coordinator responses to 16 survey items, and reductions in underage drinking prevalence rates. The coalitions were funded through the federally sponsored Strategic Prevention Framework State Incentive Grant (SPF SIG). We first examined whether coalition capacity increased over the life of the projects. Mean capacity scores increased for all 16 capacity items examined (N = 318 coalitions), the majority of which were statistically significant. Analysis of the associations between capacity and reductions in underage drinking was limited to coalitions that targeted underage drinking and provided usable outcome measures based on student survey data for either past 30-day alcohol use (N = 129) or binge drinking (N = 100). Bivariate associations between the capacity items and prevalence reductions for each outcome were consistently positive, although many were not statistically significant. Composite measures of correlated items were then created to represent six different capacity constructs, and included in multivariate models to predict reductions in the targeted outcomes. Constructs that significantly predicted reductions in one or both outcome measures included internal organization and structure, community connections and outreach, and funding from multiple sources. The findings provide support for the expectation that high functioning community coalitions can be effective agents for producing desirable community-level changes in targeted substance abuse behaviors.

  12. An assessment of anti-schistosomal treatment on physical work capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad El Karim, M A; Collins, K J; Sukkar, M Y; Omer, A H; Amin, M A; Doré, C

    1981-04-01

    Acting as their own controls, village subjects from the Gezira are of the Sudan with relatively high levels of schistosomiasis infection were first tested in an exercise laboratory in Khartoum and the tests were then repeated after a period of about 1 yr during which time the subjects were treated with hycanthone and periodically monitored to ensure that they had remained free of the disease. In the meantime they were also given anti-malarial prophylaxis. Laboratory tests showed a significant improvement in physiological work capacity of up to 20% after treatment compared with untreated controls. An overall improvement in pulmonary function, particularly forced vital capacity, was observed as well as a significant increase in mean haemoglobin concentration by 1.1 g/100 ml of blood in the treated group. Apart from these improvements in physical working capacity, the treated subjects subjectively felt better after the exercise tests, as expressed by the disappearance of fatiguability.

  13. Assessment of Maximum Aerobic Capacity and Anaerobic Threshold of Elite Ballet Dancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wyon, Matthew A; Allen, Nick; Cloak, Ross; Beck, Sarah; Davies, Paul; Clarke, Frances

    2016-09-01

    An athlete's cardiorespiratory profile, maximal aerobic capacity, and anaerobic threshold is affected by training regimen and competition demands. The present study aimed to ascertain whether there are company rank differences in maximal aerobic capacity and anaerobic threshold in elite classical ballet dancers. Seventy-four volunteers (M 34, F 40) were recruited from two full-time professional classical ballet companies. All participants completed a continuous incremental treadmill protocol with a 1-km/hr speed increase at the end of each 1-min stage until termination criteria had been achieved (e.g., voluntary cessation, respiratory exchange ratio ballet companies are probably due to the different rehearsal and performance demands.

  14. Added value of experts' knowledge to improve a quantitative microbial exposure assessment model--Application to aseptic-UHT food products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujol, Laure; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Magras, Catherine; Albert, Isabelle; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2015-10-15

    In a previous study, a quantitative microbial exposure assessment (QMEA) model applied to an aseptic-UHT food process was developed [Pujol, L., Albert, I., Magras, C., Johnson, N. B., Membré, J. M. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic UHT product failure rate. 2015 International Journal of Food Microbiology. 192, 124-141]. It quantified Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) associated with Bacillus cereus and Geobacillus stearothermophilus per process module (nine modules in total from raw material reception to end-product storage). Previously, the probabilistic model inputs were set by experts (using knowledge and in-house data). However, only the variability dimension was taken into account. The model was then improved using expert elicitation knowledge in two ways. First, the model was refined by adding the uncertainty dimension to the probabilistic inputs, enabling to set a second order Monte Carlo analysis. The eight following inputs, and their impact on SFR, are presented in detail in this present study: D-value for each bacteria of interest (B. cereus and G. stearothermophilus) associated with the inactivation model for the UHT treatment step, i.e., two inputs; log reduction (decimal reduction) number associated with the inactivation model for the packaging sterilization step for each bacterium and each part of the packaging (product container and sealing component), i.e., four inputs; and bacterial spore air load of the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet rooms, i.e., two inputs. Second, the model was improved by leveraging expert knowledge to develop further the existing model. The proportion of bacteria in the product which settled on surface of pipes (between the UHT treatment and the aseptic tank on one hand, and between the aseptic tank and the filler cabinet on the other hand) leading to a possible biofilm formation for each bacterium, was better characterized. It was modeled as a function of the hygienic design level of the aseptic

  15. Validation of the tool assessment of clinical education (AssCE): A study using Delphi method and clinical experts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Löfmark, Anna; Mårtensson, Gunilla

    2017-03-01

    The aim of the present study was to establish the validity of the tool Assessment of Clinical Education (AssCE). The tool is widely used in Sweden and some Nordic countries for assessing nursing students' performance in clinical education. It is important that the tools in use be subjected to regular audit and critical reviews. The validation process, performed in two stages, was concluded with a high level of congruence. In the first stage, Delphi technique was used to elaborate the AssCE tool using a group of 35 clinical nurse lecturers. After three rounds, we reached consensus. In the second stage, a group of 46 clinical nurse lecturers representing 12 universities in Sweden and Norway audited the revised version of the AssCE in relation to learning outcomes from the last clinical course at their respective institutions. Validation of the revised AssCE was established with high congruence between the factors in the AssCE and examined learning outcomes. The revised AssCE tool seems to meet its objective to be a validated assessment tool for use in clinical nursing education. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Expert software for accident identification

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobnikar, M.; Nemec, T.; Muehleisen, A.

    2003-01-01

    Each type of an accident in a Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) causes immediately after the start of the accident variations of physical parameters that are typical for that type of the accident thus enabling its identification. Examples of these parameter are: decrease of reactor coolant system pressure, increase of radiation level in the containment, increase of pressure in the containment. An expert software enabling a fast preliminary identification of the type of the accident in Krsko NPP has been developed. As input data selected typical parameters from Emergency Response Data System (ERDS) of the Krsko NPP are used. Based on these parameters the expert software identifies the type of the accident and also provides the user with appropriate references (past analyses and other documentation of such an accident). The expert software is to be used as a support tool by an expert team that forms in case of an emergency at Slovenian Nuclear Safety Administration (SNSA) with the task to determine the cause of the accident, its most probable scenario and the source term. The expert software should provide initial identification of the event, while the final one is still to be made after appropriate assessment of the event by the expert group considering possibility of non-typical events, multiple causes, initial conditions, influences of operators' actions etc. The expert software can be also used as an educational/training tool and even as a simple database of available accident analyses. (author)

  17. Assessing existing drought monitoring and forecasting capacities, mitigation and adaptation practices in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.; Dlamini, L.; Lahlou, O.; Imani, Y.; Alaoui, S. B.; Vermooten, J. S. A.

    2012-04-01

    Drought is one of the major natural hazards in many parts of the world, including Africa and some regions in Europe. Drought events have resulted in extensive damages to livelihoods, environment and economy. In 2011, a consortium consisting of 19 organisations from both Africa and Europe started a project (DEWFORA) aimed at developing a framework for the provision of early warning and response through drought impact mitigation for Africa. This framework covers the whole chain from monitoring and vulnerability assessment to forecasting, warning, response and knowledge dissemination. This paper presents the first results of the capacity assessment of drought monitoring and forecasting systems in Africa, the existing institutional frameworks and drought mitigation and adaptation practices. Its focus is particularly on the historical drought mitigation and adaptation actions identified in the North Africa - Maghreb Region (Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia) and in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. This is based on an extensive review of historical drought experiences. From the 1920's to 2009, the study identified 37 drought seasons in the North African - Maghreb Region and 33 drought seasons in the Southern Africa - Limpopo Basin. Existing literature tends to capture the spatial extent of drought at national and administrative scale in great detail. This is driven by the need to map drought impacts (food shortage, communities affected) in order to inform drought relief efforts (short-term drought mitigation measures). However, the mapping of drought at catchment scale (hydrological unit), required for longer-term measures, is not well documented. At regional level, both in North Africa and Southern Africa, two organisations are involved in drought monitoring and forecasting, while at national level 22 organisations are involved in North Africa and 37 in Southern Africa. Regarding drought related mitigation actions, the inventory shows that the most common actions

  18. Medical Expert Systems Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Abu-Nasser, Bassem S.

    2017-01-01

    International audience; There is an increased interest in the area of Artificial Intelligence in general and expert systems in particular. Expert systems are rapidly growing technology. Expert systems are a branch of Artificial Intelligence which is having a great impact on many fields of human life. Expert systems use human expert knowledge to solve complex problems in many fields such as Health, science, engineering, business, and weather forecasting. Organizations employing the technology ...

  19. Criterion III: Maintenance of rangeland productive capacity [Chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    G. R. Evans; R. A. Washmgton-Allen; R. D. Child; J. E. Mitchell; B. R. Bobowskl; R. V. Loper; B. H. Allen-Diaz; D. W. Thompson; G. R. Welling; T. B. Reuwsaat

    2010-01-01

    Maintenance of rangeland productive capacity is one of five criteria established by the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable (SRR) to monitor and assess rangeland sustainable management. Within this criterion, six indicators were developed through the Delphi Process and the expert opinions of academicians, rangeland scientists, rangeland management agency personnel, non-...

  20. Longitudinal Assessment of Progress in Reasoning Capacity and Relation with Self-Estimation of Knowledge Base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collard, Anne; Mélot, France; Bourguignon, Jean-Pierre

    2015-01-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate progress in reasoning capacity and knowledge base appraisal in a longitudinal analysis of data from summative evaluation throughout a medical problem-based learning curriculum. The scores in multidisciplinary discussion of a clinical case and multiple choice questionnaires (MCQs) were studied longitudinally…

  1. Longitudinal assessment of maternal parenting capacity variables and child adjustment outcomes in pediatric cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fedele, David A; Mullins, Larry L; Wolfe-Christensen, Cortney; Carpentier, Melissa Y

    2011-04-01

    This preliminary investigation aimed to longitudinally examine parenting capacity variables, namely parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress and their relation to child adjustment in mothers of children on treatment for cancer. As part of a larger study, biological mothers (N=22) completed measures of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, parenting stress, and child adjustment at Time 1 and a follow-up time point. Analyses were conducted to determine whether (1) levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up and (2) if Time 1 parenting capacity variables were associated with child adjustment at follow-up. Results revealed that parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress declined from Time 1 to follow-up, and levels of parental overprotection, perceived child vulnerability, and parenting stress at Time 1 were significantly related to child adjustment at follow-up. Collectively, the preliminary findings of this study indicate that mothers of children with cancer evidence improved parenting capacity over time. Furthermore, it seems that Time 1 parenting capacity variables are significantly related to later child adjustment.

  2. Assessment of Antioxidant Capacities in Foods: A Research Experience for General Chemistry Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoch, Matthew A.; Russell, Cianan B.; Steffen, Debora M.; Weaver, Gabriela C.; Burgess, John R.

    2009-01-01

    With the booming interest in health food and nutrition, investigations of the antioxidant capacities of various foods have come to the forefront of food science. This general chemistry laboratory curriculum provides students with an opportunity to design and implement their own experiments relating to antioxidants in food. The curriculum is six…

  3. Assessment of the 2,4 km run as a predictor of aerobic capacity

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1990-09-15

    Sep 15, 1990 ... V02max. This relationship established, the question of whether or not the 2,4 km run time could be used as a reliable predictor of aerobic capacity in national servicemen was addressed. The objects of this study were thus: (1) to establish a regression equation that expressed the relationship between.

  4. Assessment of the 2,4 km run as a predictor of aerobic capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Since the 2,4 km run time test is routinely used in military training programmes as an indicator of aerobic capacity and its possible improvement, an attempt was made to: (i) establish a regression equation of V02max V. 2,4 km run time in a group of 20 young military volunteers; and (ii) determine whether this equation could ...

  5. Assessing quality of maternity care in Hungary: expert validation and testing of the mother-centered prenatal care (MCPC) survey instrument.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rubashkin, Nicholas; Szebik, Imre; Baji, Petra; Szántó, Zsuzsa; Susánszky, Éva; Vedam, Saraswathi

    2017-11-16

    Instruments to assess quality of maternity care in Central and Eastern European (CEE) region are scarce, despite reports of poor doctor-patient communication, non-evidence-based care, and informal cash payments. We validated and tested an online questionnaire to study maternity care experiences among Hungarian women. Following literature review, we collated validated items and scales from two previous English-language surveys and adapted them to the Hungarian context. An expert panel assessed items for clarity and relevance on a 4-point ordinal scale. We calculated item-level Content Validation Index (CVI) scores. We designed 9 new items concerning informal cash payments, as well as 7 new "model of care" categories based on mode of payment. The final questionnaire (N = 111 items) was tested in two samples of Hungarian women, representative (N = 600) and convenience (N = 657). We conducted bivariate analysis and thematic analysis of open-ended responses. Experts rated pre-existing English-language items as clear and relevant to Hungarian women's maternity care experiences with an average CVI for included questions of 0.97. Significant differences emerged across the model of care categories in terms of informal payments, informed consent practices, and women's perceptions of autonomy. Thematic analysis (N = 1015) of women's responses identified 13 priority areas of the maternity care experience, 9 of which were addressed by the questionnaire. We developed and validated a comprehensive questionnaire that can be used to evaluate respectful maternity care, evidence-based practice, and informal cash payments in CEE region and beyond.

  6. Water Quality Assessment and Determining the Carrying Capacity of Pollution Load Batang Kuranji River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewata, I.; Adri, Z.

    2018-04-01

    This study aims to determine the water quality and carrying capacity of pollution load Batang Kuranji River in the headwaters, middle, and downstream. This research is descriptive quantitative parameters of pH, BOD, COD, TSS, and DOES Depictions of river water quality refer to RegulationNo.82/2001, while determination of carrying capacity of pollution load river refers to the Kep Men LHNo.10/2003.The result is Kuranji Batang River water quality upstream region included in either category who meet the quality standard first class ofPP82/2001. TSS concentrations at head waters of 21 mg/L, BOD1,6 mg/L, COD7,99mg/L and DO 7,845 mg/L. While the carrying capacity of pollution load river in upstream region included in both categories namely BOD of 4,4 kg/sec, COD 273,60 kg/sec, TSS906,00kg/sec, and DO parameters of 49.20 kg/sec. Middle region (point 2, 3, and 4) water quality Batang Kuranji River has exceeded the quality standard of 82/2001 for class II and class III. Meanwhile, carrying capacity of pollution load river in area included in ugly category. The calculation is done with application Qual2Kw show that carrying capacity of pollution load river of BOD -857.3 kg/sec, COD -777.40 kg/sec, TSS +9511.5 kg/sec, and DO +69.30 kg/sec.

  7. Performance Assessment of Black Box Capacity Forecasting for Multi-Market Trade Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela MacDougall

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the growth of renewable generated electricity in the energy mix, large energy storage and flexible demand, particularly aggregated demand response is becoming a front runner as a new participant in the wholesale energy markets. One of the biggest barriers for the integration of aggregator services into market participation is knowledge of the current and future flexible capacity. To calculate the available flexibility, the current aggregator pilot and simulation implementations use lower level measurements and device specifications. This type of implementation is not scalable due to computational constraints, as well as it could conflict with end user privacy rights. Black box machine learning approaches have been proven to accurately estimate the available capacity of a cluster of heating devices using only aggregated data. This study will investigate the accuracy of this approach when applied to a heterogeneous virtual power plant (VPP. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the machine learning model is performed when varying the underlying device makeup of the VPP. Further, the forecasted flexible capacity of a heterogeneous residential VPP was applied to a trade strategy, which maintains a day ahead schedule, as well as offers flexibility to the imbalance market. This performance is then compared when using the same strategy with no capacity forecasting, as well as perfect knowledge. It was shown that at most, the highest average error, regardless of the VPP makeup, was still less than 9%. Further, when applying the forecasted capacity to a trading strategy, 89% of the optimal performance can be met. This resulted in a reduction of monthly costs by approximately 20%.

  8. Assessing refinery capacity and readiness to take Canadian product : is Canadian crude pushing or pulling?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Friesner, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    This presentation addressed some of the challenges facing oil sands production in Canada. Refinery products and refining investments were discussed, as was the impact of alternative crude supply on the markets and pricing of oil sands. The oils sands products discussed include various qualities of sweet synthetic crude oil produced via upgraders; virgin and cracked intermediate products from oil sands upgraders; mined or Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD) produced bitumen blended products; and synthetic heavy crude produced via hydrocracking. Products were listed in terms of ease of production, and a rationale for generic ranking was provided. A chart of 2003 characteristics of non-Canadian imports to the mid-west United States was provided. Various marketing strategies for different oil sands products were discussed, as well as issues concerning logistics. Strategies for the development of a bigger market include producer investment in refining capability; the acquisition of refining assets; investment in refiners' upgrading capability; and securing a long term supply deal. Core and extended markets for Western Canadian oil sands products were reviewed. A chart of North American refining capacity was presented. Details of a refinery with both coking and cracking capacity were examined. An increase in hydro processing capacity and expanded coking capacity, as well as an upgrade of metallurgy were suggested as possible upgrading options. Various refinery configurations were discussed in relation to lower cost feedstocks and clean fuels specifications. Issues concerning crude supply were examined with reference to pricing parity points and declines in traditional crude production. Specific supply issues concerning oil sands production were discussed, including transportation costs; adequate refining capacity; and availability of supply. Various logistic investments were considered. A map of BP's 5 U.S. refineries was presented. A forecast of expected changes in

  9. Robust Trust in Expert Testimony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Dahlman

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The standard of proof in criminal trials should require that the evidence presented by the prosecution is robust. This requirement of robustness says that it must be unlikely that additional information would change the probability that the defendant is guilty. Robustness is difficult for a judge to estimate, as it requires the judge to assess the possible effect of information that the he or she does not have. This article is concerned with expert witnesses and proposes a method for reviewing the robustness of expert testimony. According to the proposed method, the robustness of expert testimony is estimated with regard to competence, motivation, external strength, internal strength and relevance. The danger of trusting non-robust expert testimony is illustrated with an analysis of the Thomas Quick Case, a Swedish legal scandal where a patient at a mental institution was wrongfully convicted for eight murders.

  10. Expert opinion vs. empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herman, Rod A; Raybould, Alan

    2014-01-01

    Expert opinion is often sought by government regulatory agencies when there is insufficient empirical evidence to judge the safety implications of a course of action. However, it can be reckless to continue following expert opinion when a preponderance of evidence is amassed that conflicts with this opinion. Factual evidence should always trump opinion in prioritizing the information that is used to guide regulatory policy. Evidence-based medicine has seen a dramatic upturn in recent years spurred by examples where evidence indicated that certain treatments recommended by expert opinions increased death rates. We suggest that scientific evidence should also take priority over expert opinion in the regulation of genetically modified crops (GM). Examples of regulatory data requirements that are not justified based on the mass of evidence are described, and it is suggested that expertise in risk assessment should guide evidence-based regulation of GM crops. PMID:24637724

  11. Delphi consensus of an expert committee in oncogeriatrics regarding comprehensive geriatric assessment in seniors with cancer in Spain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina-Garrido, Maria-Jose; Guillén-Ponce, Carmen; Blanco, Remei; Saldaña, Juana; Feliú, Jaime; Antonio, Maite; López-Mongil, Rosa; Ramos Cordero, Primitivo; Gironés, Regina

    2018-07-01

    The aim of this work was to reach a national consensus in Spain regarding the Comprehensive Geriatric Assessment (CGA) domains in older oncological patients and the CGA scales to be used as a foundation for widespread use. The Delphi method was implemented to attain consensus. Representatives of the panel were chosen from among the members of the Oncogeriatric Working Group of the Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (SEOM). Consensus was defined as ≥66.7% coincidence in responses and by the stability of said coincidence (changes ≤15% between rounds). The study was conducted between July and December 2016. Of the 17 people invited to participate, 16 agreed. The panel concluded by consensus that the following domains should be included in the CGA:(and the scales to evaluate them): functional (Barthel Index, Lawton-Brody scale, gait speed), cognitive (Pfeiffer questionnaire), nutritional (Mini Nutritional Assessment - MNA), psychological/mood (Yesavage scale), social-familial (Gijon scale), comorbidity (Charlson index), medications, and geriatric syndromes (urinary and/or fecal incontinence, low auditory and/or visual acuity, presence of falls, pressure sores, insomnia, and abuse). Also by consensus, the CGA should be administered to older patients with cancer for whom there is a subsequent therapeutic intent and who scored positive on a previous frailty-screening questionnaire. After 3 rounds, consensus was reached regarding CGA domains to be used in older patients with cancer, the scales to be administered for each of these domains, as well as the timeline to be followed during consultation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Assessment of phosphorus fertility by means of isotopically exchangeable phosphorus and the fixing capacity of soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gachon, L.

    1979-01-01

    Using over 400 soils representative of French pedological types, the absorption kinetics of phosphorus were studied on Italian rye-grass grown in pots until assimilable reserves had been exhausted. At the same time, Russell's E value (isotopically exchangeable P in vitro), Larsen's L value (isotopically exchangeable P in vivo) and the fixing capacity of the soils were measured. The study shows a very close correlation between the phosphorus removed by the first four cuttings and fertility indices combining E or L with the fixing capacity. The agricultural value of the two indices proposed, Isub(E) and Isub(L), is confirmed by the results of about forty one-year and multi-year field experiments. Norms for the interpretation of these indices are deduced; these are independent of the pedological type but need to be modified as a function of the type of crop and the cultural practice. (author)

  13. The algorithm for the assessment of functional work capacity of railway workers with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okiljević Z.

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of functional work capacity based on the biological function of the body and a specific job demands and job characteristics, determine whether a person is capable to do the job or group of jobs. Evaluation of work capacity (EWC railway workers is conducted according to the program of Regulations for the former and periodic examinations of employees in workplaces with high risk published in the Official Gazette of RS no. 120/ 07 and 655. Regulations on health conditions to be met by railway workers, who are directly involved in railway transport. One of the most common chronic diseases during EWC is chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD. The definition of contraindications for use of railway employees with COPD given by Ordinance 655 is in very general terms, trying to make it easier and improve the quality of assessment of work capacity, we have developed an algorithm for the assessment of work ability among these workers. When doubt the existence of COPD should first prove that the disease exists, according to GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease guidelines, and for occupational medicine we considered important to clarify and standardize the assessment criteria for EWC, which resulting in a diagnostic algorithm for EWC. It is also important to know which type of job will worker to do. Application of a diagnostic algorithm in EWC will allow optimal assessment of disease severity in railway and other workers suffering of COPD working at the workplace with an increased risk efficacy treatment evaluation; assess compensation of functional defects and determine schedule of periodical examination.

  14. Evaluation capacity assessment of the transport sector in South Africa: An innovative approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Basia D. Bless

    2017-05-01

    Conclusion: In this regard, the framework is recommended as an innovative tool to assist evaluation practitioners and scholars to better understand evaluation capacity constraints within a broader context that involves logistical, technical, contextual, social and political dimensions. It also offers an important insight on how these components interfaced to shape the organisational value system that impacts the use of evidence in the transport sector in South Africa.

  15. Sexuality and Physical Intimacy in Long Term Care: Sexuality, long term care, capacity assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Lichtenberg, Peter A.

    2014-01-01

    Sexuality and sexual needs in older adults remains a neglected area of clinical intervention, particularly so in long term care settings. Because older adults in medical rehabilitation and long term care beds present with significant frailties, and often significant neurocognitive disorders it makes it difficult for occupational therapists and other staff to evaluate the capacity of an older adult resident to participate in sexual relationships. The current paper reviews the current literatur...

  16. Self-Assessment of Physical Activity and Health Capacity of Students

    OpenAIRE

    Plavina Liana; Dulevska Ilva; Karklina Helena

    2017-01-01

    The compulsory part of the individual life is physical activity. The physical activity is important for maintenance health capacity. Physical activity includes various kinds of components: physical activity during the leisure time (during the week days and weekend days), physical activity at home and in working place and physical activity during the transference from home to other place. Intensity of the physical activity could also be various from low to moderate and till high. Respondent of...

  17. Organizational Culture, Absorptive Capacity, Innovation Performace and Competitive Advantage: An Integrated Assessment in Indonesian Banking Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmad Adriansyah; Adi Zakaria Afiff

    2015-01-01

    The positive impact of absorptive capacity (ACAP) on innovation and the positive impact of innovation on competitive advantage have been proven in different research contexts. However, current knowledge on organizational culture that affects ACAP, innovation and competitive advantage as a whole, remains unclear. This article proposes a model to examine how organizational culture (developmental culture and rational culture) affects ACAP, innovation and competitive advantage, directly and indir...

  18. Quantification Of 15N Internal Transformation To Assess Nitrogen Supply Capacity In Deforested Soil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Handayani, I.P.; Prawito, P.; Sisworo, E.L.

    2002-01-01

    Quantification of deforested soil's capacity to supply available N via mineralization and immobilization using 15N pool dilution is crucial to make fertilizer recommendation. The objective of this research was to measure the soil's capacity to minemlize and ilmnobilize N, so that the actual value of available N released by soil can be predicted. The results showed that Imperata grassland released the highest available N (amonium + nitrate) about 33.93 mg/kg/d and can immobilize 11.68 mg/kg/d of N. On the other hand, agriculture lields had the lowest inorganic N by nearly 23.15 mg/kg/d, and no immobilization occurred. The implication is that agriculture fields have a very low labile and stabile pool N (nearly 0), while Imperata grassland have capacity to store more pool N into labile or stabil pool (about 34%). In conclusion, dynamics of N cycling in ecosystem are dependent upon the content of pool C-N utilized by microorganisms and plants

  19. Evaluating a web-based health risk assessment with tailored feedback: what does an expert focus group yield compared to a web-based end-user survey?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosbergen, Sandra; Mahieu, Guy R; Laan, Eva K; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A; Jaspers, Monique Wm; Peek, Niels

    2014-01-02

    Increasingly, Web-based health applications are developed for the prevention and management of chronic diseases. However, their reach and utilization is often disappointing. Qualitative evaluations post-implementation can be used to inform the optimization process and ultimately enhance their adoption. In current practice, such evaluations are mainly performed with end-user surveys. However, a review approach by experts in a focus group may be easier to administer and might provide similar results. The aim of this study was to assess whether industrial design engineers in a focus group would address the same issues as end users in a Web-based survey when evaluating a commercial Web-based health risk assessment (HRA) with tailored feedback. Seven Dutch companies used the HRA as part of their corporate health management strategy. Employees using the HRA (N=2289) and 10 independent industrial designers were invited to participate in the study. The HRA consisted of four components: (1) an electronic health questionnaire, (2) biometric measurements, (3) laboratory evaluation, and (4) individually tailored feedback generated by decision support software. After participating in the HRA as end users, both end users and designers evaluated the program. End users completed an evaluation questionnaire that included a free-text field. Designers participated in a focus group discussion. Constructs from user satisfaction and technology acceptance theories were used to categorize and compare the remarks from both evaluations. We assessed and qualitatively analyzed 294 remarks of 189 end users and 337 remarks of 6 industrial designers, pertaining to 295 issues in total. Of those, 137 issues were addressed in the end-user survey and 148 issues in the designer focus group. Only 7.3% (10/137) of the issues addressed in the survey were also addressed in the focus group. End users made more remarks about the usefulness of the HRA and prior expectations that were not met. Designers made

  20. Comparative Quantitative Assessments of Salivary Ion Activity Product for Hydroxyapatite and Buffering Capacity in Children with Different Caries Experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, Siddharth; Masih, Updesh; Yeluri, Ramakrishna

    If a relation exists between salivary I PHA , buffer capacity and caries experience, then this relationship could be used as screening chair side test for caries risk assessment. One hundred ninety seven children aged 4 to 6 years were examined. Data was collected by interview and clinical examination. They were divided into low, moderate and high caries experience group of 20 children each. Two ml of each sample was used to measure the pH value with pH meter. Regarding the buffering capacity, freshly prepared hydrochloric acid (HCl) was titrated into saliva and pH was recorded. The collected saliva samples were sent to Laboratory for measurement of calcium and phosphorus. I PHA was calculated and the negative logarithms of I PHA were used to determine the enamel solubility. The correlation between salivary I PHA , buffering capacity and caries experience were evaluated. There was a significant relation between pH, log I PHA and dental caries experience, it could be considered as a predictor of dental caries. pH measurement after HCl titration in saliva could be used as chair side screening test for the assessment of caries risk.

  1. Proposing a sequential comparative analysis for assessing multilateral health agency transformation and sustainable capacity: exploring the advantages of institutional theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez, Eduardo J

    2014-05-20

    This article proposes an approach to comparing and assessing the adaptive capacity of multilateral health agencies in meeting country and individual healthcare needs. Most studies comparing multilateral health agencies have failed to clearly propose a method for conducting agency comparisons. This study conducted a qualitative case study methodological approach, such that secondary and primary case study literature was used to conduct case study comparisons of multilateral health agencies. Through the proposed Sequential Comparative Analysis (SCA), the author found a more effective way to justify the selection of cases, compare and assess organizational transformative capacity, and to learn from agency success in policy sustainability processes. To more affectively understand and explain why some multilateral health agencies are more capable of adapting to country and individual healthcare needs, SCA provides a methodological approach that may help to better understand why these agencies are so different and what we can learn from successful reform processes. As funding challenges continue to hamper these agencies' adaptive capacity, learning from each other will become increasingly important.

  2. Assessing in vivo fertilizing capacity of liquid-preserved boar semen according to the 'Hanover gilt model'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ardón, F; Döhring, A; Le Thi, X; Weitze, K F; Waberski, D

    2003-04-01

    The goal of this study was to determine the ability of the Hanover gilt model to assess in vivo fertilizing capacity of preserved sperm and to consider whether any modifications to this model were needed. This model evaluates the fertilizing capacity of semen based on the fertilization rate, the rate of normal embryos and the accessory sperm count of 3-5-day embryos. Its distinguishing characteristics are the use of one-time insemination of sperm in reduced numbers, of spontaneously ovulating gilts and of ovulation detection through ultrasound examination of ovaries. Reduced sperm numbers allow for an accurate evaluation of the fertilizing potential of different semen treatments, thereby avoiding the compensatory effect of doses calibrated to maximize fertility. The model's usefulness was assessed in a trial run designed to compare the fertilizing capacity of liquid boar semen diluted into two different extenders. The diluent, the boar and the backflow, had no significant effect on any of the parameters studied. Gilts inseminated less than 24 h before ovulation had a significantly higher (p semen), while using relatively few gilts and little time.

  3. Expert auditors’ services classification

    OpenAIRE

    Jolanta Wisniewska

    2013-01-01

    The profession of an expert auditor is a public trust occupation with a distinctive feature of taking responsibility for actions in the public interest. The main responsibility of expert auditors is performing financial auditing; however, expert auditors are prepared to carry out different tasks which encompass a wide plethora of financial and auditing services for different kinds of institutions and companies. The aim of the article is first of all the description of expert auditors’ service...

  4. Der Patient als Experte.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubs

    1998-01-01

    Patients as Experts: Determining Benefit by Using Assessments of Ability (ICIDH)When health economy and quality mangement are dealing with the cost-benefit relationship, to this day description, calculation, and assessment of the benefit are missing to a great extent. Deliberations in terms of cause and effect do not go beyond the model of pathogenesis (etiology - pathology - manifestation) and descriptions on the organ level (ICD). Only the international classification of impairments, disabilities, and handicaps (ICIDH) as a separate estimation of the resulting manifestations of illness on the levels of organ, individual, and society is capable to elucidate this benefit. It is the patient who is the expert to decide what he needs, what he wants, and what he can do, thus, evaluating on an individual level his loss of capability. The ICIDH is regarded as the key for the management of chronic diseases. The characteristics of being chronically ill require the integration of salutogenesis and the consideration of the hierarchy of needs. The specially developed MARA model serves as pragmatic basis for the description of the benefits of carried out and omitted interventions as changes of abilities by using the MARA curve (mean age-related ability) as ethical guideline. In quality circles the MARA model, which is based on ICIDH, hierarchy of needs and salutogenesis, can offer apatient-oriented basis of discussion for benefit assessments, and, in a pragmatical way, it can facilitate the introduction of evidence-based medicine. By the change of view from the organ level with multifactorial aspects to the individual level, in which the abilities can be understood as a monofactor, a high consensus potential between several participants of discussion in health service is possible.

  5. Assessment of the adsorptive capacity of the Kaolin deposit targeting its use on the removal of colors in aqueous solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matos, S.C.; Hildebrando, E.A.

    2016-01-01

    The Amazonic region has large and valuable kaolin deposits. The state of Para by itself comprises three large industries which process kaolin. It has been noticed that the waste resulting from the processing of kaolin is rich in silico-aluminate, presenting potential in adsorption processes. Thus, this research's objective is to assess the kaolin waste produced during the processing phase, aiming at its application as low cost adsorbent material. For that, the kaolin waste has been characterized by X-ray diffraction and chemical analysis (XRF), and then sieved and calcined at 700 ° C, being then subjected to the adsorption process and observed qualitatively its capacity of retention by methylene blue (AM). Preliminary results show that the kaolin waste has satisfactory adsorption capacity at concentrations of up to 50.0 mg / MP, demonstrating the potential that it be used in the removal of dyes in wastewater treatment. (author)

  6. SIGNAL CONTROLLED JUNCTIONS CALCULATIONS IN TRAFFIC-CAPACITY ASSESSMENT - AIMSUN, OMNITRANS, WEBSTER AND TP 10/2010 RESULTS COMPARISON

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ľubomír ČERNICKÝ

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Every increase in traffic volume on road network in towns can lead to overcrowding of road network. This results in undesirable external costs such as traffic congestions, which cause high loses in time during transportation, increased fuel consumption and thus higher production of greenhouse gases and noise. This all ultimately reduces the attractiveness of the area. The increase of traffic volume and therefrom derived traffic problems are needed to be solved during traffic-capacity assessment of every larger investment. The software can help to assess increased traffic in solved area and thus help authorities to make a right decision during approving of the investment plan. This article is focused on comparison of two software – Aimsun and OmniTrans, and calculations according to Webster and technical regulations for assessing junction capacity in the Slovak Republic. The packages outputs are also compared to the measured data at the assessed junction in this article. The analysis showed that outputs of various tools differ, generally all packages showed higher delays compared to measured data at the main road and lower delays compared to measured data at the side roads.

  7. Delegating Decisions to Experts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hao; Suen, Wing

    2004-01-01

    We present a model of delegation with self-interested and privately informed experts. A team of experts with extreme but opposite biases is acceptable to a wide range of decision makers with diverse preferences, but the value of expertise from such a team is low. A decision maker wants to appoint experts who are less partisan than he is in order…

  8. Disaster risk reduction capacity assessment for precarious settlements in Guatemala City.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Scott B; Green, Rebekah A; Svekla, Walter

    2012-07-01

    This study presents findings of an institutional capacity analysis of urban disaster risk reduction for informal settlements in the Guatemala Metropolitan Region. It uses a resource access perspective of vulnerability, actor-network theory, and qualitative data collection. The analysis reveals that there is interest in disaster risk reduction for the informal settlements; however, there is little in the way of direct financial or oversight relationships between informal settlement residents and all other actors. Respondents observed that informal settlements would probably remain inhabited; thus, there is a need for disaster risk reduction within these settlements. Disaster risk reduction capacity for informal settlements exists and can be further leveraged, as long as steps are taken to ensure appropriate access to and control of resources and oversight. Further, the nascent institutional arrangements should be strengthened through increased communication and coordination between actors, a decentralization of oversight and financial relationships, and mediation of identified resource conflicts. © 2012 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2012.

  9. Can a simple test of functional capacity add to the clinical assessment of diabetes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, T; Caffrey, D G; Gilman, R H; Mathai, S C; Lerner, A; Hernandez, A; Pinto, M E; Huaylinos, Y; Cabrera, L; Wise, R A; Miranda, J J; Checkley, W

    2016-08-01

    To identify impairment in functional capacity associated with complicated and non-complicated diabetes using the 6-min walk distance test. We enrolled 111 adults, aged ≥40 years, with Type 2 diabetes from a hospital facility and 150 healthy control subjects of similar age and sex from a community site in Lima, Peru. All participants completed a 6-min walk test. The mean age of the 261 participants was 58.3 years, and 43.3% were male. Among those with diabetes, 67 (60%) had non-complicated diabetes and 44 (40%) had complications such as peripheral neuropathy, retinopathy or nephropathy. The mean unadjusted 6-min walk distances were 376 m and 394 m in adults with and without diabetes complications, respectively, vs 469 m in control subjects (Pdiabetes complications walked 84 m less far (95% CI -104 to -63 m) and those without complications walked 60 m less far (-77 to -42 m) than did control subjects. When using HbA1c level as a covariate in multivariable regression, participants walked 13 m less far (-16.9 to -9.9 m) for each % increase in HbA1c . The subjects with diabetes had lower functional capacity compared with healthy control subjects with similar characteristics. Differences in 6-min walk distance were even apparent in the subjects without diabetes complications. Potential mechanisms that could explain this finding are early cardiovascular disease or deconditioning. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

  10. Environmental research organizations and climate change policy analytical capacity : an assessment of the Canadian case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howlett, M.; Oliphant, S.

    2010-01-01

    Climate change is a topic of increasing interest to contemporary decision makers. In order for governments to make informed decisions in climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, environmental policy makers require strong research and analytical capabilities to design and implement effective policies to deal with wide-ranging and complex policy issues. This articles presented a 7-criteria model of policy analytical capacity (PAC) and applied it to 3 prominent Canadian environmental policy research organizations. The 2 governmental organizations examined in this study were Environment Canada and the British Columbia Ministry of the Environment, while the non-government organization was the David Suzuki Foundation. Following the 7 principles that determine the PAC of an organization, each case study examined the education/training of the organization's employees; the types and mix of policy analysis techniques used by the organization; the culture and structure of decision making in the organization; the nature and source of demand for the organization's research; and the organization's access to necessary data and information to conduct work at a high level of competence. Interview data provided information on the status of each organizations' current research capacity and the effect this has on overall government policy-making capability in the face of climate change challenges. 75 refs.

  11. ‘Prevention is better than cure’: Assessing Ghana’s preparedness (capacity for disaster management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Oteng-Ababio

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines and contributes to the debate on Ghana’s capacity and preparedness to respond to disasters and build safer communities. Having witnessed a series of catastrophic events in recent times, many have questioned the capacity of the National Disaster Management Organisation, an institution mandated to manage disasters in Ghana and whose operations have historically been shaped by external pressures, particularly the populist tendencies of the Provisional National Defense Council government in the 1980s. Analysing the results from the fieldwork and placing them in the context of contemporary disaster management strategies, this article gives an overview of Ghana’s preparedness for emergencies in the face of increasing urbanisation. It finds that the organisation is fixated on a top-down approach with low cooperation, collaboration and coordination with stakeholders, leading to situations where devastation and destruction occur before action is taken. Today, the consensus is that practitioners wean themselves from managing disasters and take to managing risk. Such a redirection of attention calls for the adoption of an appropriate institutional framework: an approach that unites the putative nation beyond competing loyalties to ethnicity, tribe and political entity.

  12. Consideration of time-evolving capacity distributions and improved degradation models for seismic fragility assessment of aging highway bridges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Jayadipta; Sood, Piyush

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology to develop seismic fragility curves for deteriorating highway bridges by uniquely accounting for realistic pitting corrosion deterioration and time-dependent capacity distributions for reinforced concrete columns under chloride attacks. The proposed framework offers distinct improvements over state-of-the-art procedures for fragility assessment of degrading bridges which typically assume simplified uniform corrosion deterioration model and pristine limit state capacities. Depending on the time in service life and deterioration mechanism, this study finds that capacity limit states for deteriorating bridge columns follow either lognormal distribution or generalized extreme value distributions (particularly for pitting corrosion). Impact of column degradation mechanism on seismic response and fragility of bridge components and system is assessed using nonlinear time history analysis of three-dimensional finite element bridge models reflecting the uncertainties across structural modeling parameters, deterioration parameters and ground motion. Comparisons are drawn between the proposed methodology and traditional approaches to develop aging bridge fragility curves. Results indicate considerable underestimations of system level fragility across different damage states using the traditional approach compared to the proposed realistic pitting model for chloride induced corrosion. Time-dependent predictive functions are provided to interpolate logistic regression coefficients for continuous seismic reliability evaluation along the service life with reasonable accuracy. - Highlights: • Realistic modeling of chloride induced corrosion deterioration in the form of pitting. • Time-evolving capacity distribution for aging bridge columns under chloride attacks. • Time-dependent seismic fragility estimation of highway bridges at component and system level. • Mathematical functions for continuous tracking of seismic fragility along service

  13. Hippocampal volume change measurement: Quantitative assessment of the reproducibility of expert manual outlining and the automated methods FreeSurfer and FIRST

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mulder, E.R.; de Jong, R.A.; Knol, D.L.; van Schijndel, R.A.; Cover, K.S.; Visser, P.J.; Barkhof, F.; Vrenken, H.

    2014-01-01

    Background: To measure hippocampal volume change in Alzheimer's disease (AD) or mild cognitive impairment (MCI), expert manual delineation is often used because of its supposed accuracy. It has been suggested that expert outlining yields poorer reproducibility as compared to automated methods, but

  14. Comparative analysis of two different methods of anaerobic capacity assessment in sedentary young men

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klašnja Aleksandar

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background/Aim. The Wingate anaerobic test is a valid and reliable method of measuring anaerobic capacity. The aim of this study was to determine whether other modified test can be used instead of the Wingate test. Methods. A group of 30 sedentary young men were first tested with a cycle ergometer (classic Wingate test, and then with a dynamometer during 30 s of 'all out' leg extension exercise (modified Wingate test; WAnTe in order to test anaerobic capacity. Subsequent correlations between these tests were made. Results. Peak power, mean power on cycling ergometer in absolute and relative values were 463 ± 105 W, 316.7 ± 63.8 W, 5.68 ± 1.17 W/kg, 3.68 ± 0.78 W/kg, respectively. On a dynamometer absolute and relative values of maximal and mean load in kg and power in Watts were 136.54 ± 21.3 kg, 1.67 ± 0.26; 128.65 ± 19.93 kg, 1.57 ± 0.24 kg, 657 ± 125.87 W, and 8 ± 1.54 W/kg, respectively. There was no correlation between 5 s intervals of the classic Wingate test and WAnTe during the first, fourth and fifth intervals, but in the second (r = 0.49, p < 0.05, third (r = 0.38, p < 0.05 and last 5 s intervals (r = 0.39, p < 0.05, and also in peak power and mean power (r = 0.42, p < 0.05 and r = 0.45, p < 0.05 respectively, a significant positive correlation was detected. Conclusion. A modified Wingate test of leg extension on a dynamometer in sedentary young men shows a correlation with the classic Wingate test only in parameters of peak power, and mean power and the second, the third and the last 5 s intervals. Because of that it should only be used for orientation, whereas for precise measurements of anaerobic capacity the classic Wingate test should be used.

  15. Carrying Capacity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Kjærgård, Bente

    2012-01-01

    A spatial planning act was introduced inIndonesia 1992 and renewed in 2008. It emphasised the planning role of decentralised authorities. The spatial planning act covers both spatial and environmental issues. It defines the concept of carrying capacity and includes definitions of supportive....../cities. Four different sectors (water, food production, waste, and forests) were selected as core areas for decentralised spatial planning. Indicators for SCC and ACC were identified and assessed with regard to relevance and quantifiability. For each of the indicators selected, a legal threshold or guiding...... was introduced inIndonesia 1992 and renewed in 2008. It emphasised the planning role of decentralised authorities. The spatial planning act covers both spatial and environmental issues. It defines the concept of carrying capacity and includes definitions of supportive carrying capacity (SCC) and assimilative...

  16. Uranium from Coal Ash: Resource Assessment and Outlook on Production Capacities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Monnet, Antoine

    2014-01-01

    Conclusion: Uranium production from coal-ash is technically feasible: in some situations, it could reach commercial development, in such case, fast lead time will be a plus. Technically accessible resources are significant (1.1 to 4.5 MtU). Yet most of those are low grade. Potential reserves don’t exceed 200 ktU (cut-off grade = 200 ppm). • By-product uranium production => constrained production capacities; • Realistic production potential < 700 tU/year; • ~ 1% of current needs. → Coal ash will not be a significant source of uranium for the 21st century – even if production constrains are released (increase in coal consumption

  17. Organizational Culture, Absorptive Capacity, Innovation Performace and Competitive Advantage: An Integrated Assessment in Indonesian Banking Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Adriansyah

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The positive impact of absorptive capacity (ACAP on innovation and the positive impact of innovation on competitive advantage have been proven in different research contexts. However, current knowledge on organizational culture that affects ACAP, innovation and competitive advantage as a whole, remains unclear. This article proposes a model to examine how organizational culture (developmental culture and rational culture affects ACAP, innovation and competitive advantage, directly and indirectly as well.  Surveyed data (in Indonesian Banking Industry shows that both of organizational culture have a direct impact on ACAP. Only developmental culture has a direct impact on innovation. There is no culture type affects competitive advantage directly. In this research, culture affects competitive advantage through ACAP and innovation.    

  18. Phenolic Composition, Antioxidant Capacity and in vitro Cytotoxicity Assessment of Fruit Wines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Ljevar

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Fruit wines contain a wide range of phenolic compounds with biological effects, but their composition and potential benefits to human health have been studied to the much lesser extent compared to grape wines. The aim of this research is to study the phenolic profile of different types of fruit wines and to evaluate their antioxidant and biological potential. Commercially available fruit wines from blackberry, cherry, raspberry, blackcurrant, strawberry and apple produced in Croatia were analyzed. To the best of our knowledge, this study represents the first comprehensive screening of Croatian fruit wines. The phenolic characterization was performed by spectrophotometry and HPLC-PDA/MS analysis. The antioxidant capacity was determined using ABTS and FRAP assays, while in vitro biological activity was analyzed by the cytotoxicity assay on human breast (MCF-7, colon (CaCo-2 and cervical (HeLa cancer cell lines. Among the studied fruit wines, blackberry, cherry and blackcurrant wines contained the highest amount of total phenolics, while the last two also contained the highest amount of total anthocyanins. The analysis of individual phenolic compounds showed distinctive phenolic composition of each type of fruit wine, notably as regards anthocyanins. Blackberry, followed by cherry, raspberry and blackcurrant wines also had a significantly higher antioxidant capacity than strawberry and apple wines. Fruit wines inhibited the growth of human cancer cells in vitro in a dose-dependent manner with differing susceptibility among tested cancer cells. Blackberry, cherry, raspberry and blackcurrant wines in the volume ratio of 10 and 20 % showed to be the most effective anti-proliferative agents, with higher susceptibility in HeLa and MCF-7 cells than CaCo-2 cells.

  19. Expert system for estimating LWR plutonium production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sandquist, G.M.

    1988-01-01

    An Artificial Intelligence-Expert System called APES (Analysis of Proliferation by Expert System) has been developed and tested to permit a non proliferation expert to evaluate the capability and capacity of a specified LWR reactor and PUREX reprocessing system for producing and separating plutonium even when system information may be limited and uncertain. APES employs an expert system coded in LISP and based upon an HP-RL (Hewlett Packard-Representational Language) Expert System Shell. The user I/O interface communicates with a blackboard and the knowledge base which contains the quantitative models required to describe the reactor, selected fission product production and radioactive decay processes, Purex reprocessing and ancillary knowledge

  20. Final report of the cosmetic ingredient review expert panel on the safety assessment of Polyisobutene and Hydrogenated Polyisobutene as used in cosmetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    controls. Neither Polyisobutene nor Hydrogenated Polyisobutene were ocular irritants, nor were they dermal irritants or sensitizers. Polyisobutene was not comedogenic in a rabbit ear study. Polyisobutene did not induce transformation in the Syrian hamster embryo (SHE) cell transformation assay, but did enhance 3-methylcholanthrene-induced transformation of C3H/10T1/2 cells. In a carcinogenicity study in mice, Polyisobutene was not carcinogenic, nor did it promote the carcinogenicity of 7,12-dimethylbenz(alpha)anthracene. Clinical patch tests uncovered no evidence of dermal irritation and repeat-insult patch tests with a product containing 4% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene or 1.44% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene found no reactions greater than slight erythema. These products also were not phototoxic or photoallergenic. The product containing 4% Hydrogenated Polyisobutene was not an ocular irritant in a clinical test. The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel recognized that there are data gaps regarding use and concentration of these ingredients. However, the overall information available on the types of products in which these ingredients are used and at what concentrations indicate a pattern of use, which was considered by the Expert Panel in assessing safety. Although there is an absence of dermal absorption data for Polyisobutene and Hydrogenated Polyisobutene, the available octanol water partition coefficient data and the low solubility in water suggest very slow absorption, so additional data are not needed. Gastrointestinal absorption is also not a major concern due to the low solubility of these chemicals. Although one in vitro study did report that Polyisobutene did promote cellular transformation, a mouse study did not find evidence of tumor promotion. Because lifetime exposure studies using rats and dogs exposed to Polybutene failed to demonstrate any carcinogenic or tumor promotion effect, and a three-generation reproductive/developmental toxicity study produced

  1. Expert status and performance.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Burgman

    Full Text Available Expert judgements are essential when time and resources are stretched or we face novel dilemmas requiring fast solutions. Good advice can save lives and large sums of money. Typically, experts are defined by their qualifications, track record and experience. The social expectation hypothesis argues that more highly regarded and more experienced experts will give better advice. We asked experts to predict how they will perform, and how their peers will perform, on sets of questions. The results indicate that the way experts regard each other is consistent, but unfortunately, ranks are a poor guide to actual performance. Expert advice will be more accurate if technical decisions routinely use broadly-defined expert groups, structured question protocols and feedback.

  2. Building professional capacity in ITS : an assessment of ITS training and education needs : the CVO perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-08-01

    This report focuses on assessing the training and education needs of transportation professionals involved in Intelligent Transportation Systems/Commercial Vehicle Operations (ITS/CVO). After an introduction to the program, the author defines the pro...

  3. Workplace assessments and functional capacity evaluations: current beliefs of therapists in Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Innes, Ev; Straker, Leon

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand the current beliefs of therapists in Australia, and the strategies they use to address the issues of credibility, reliability, consistency, trustworthiness, validity, generalisability and quality in conducting work-related assessments. In-depth semi-structured interviews were conducted with 26 occupational therapists and physiotherapists from around Australia. Participants expressed the belief that the therapist was the assessment instrument and was central to the credibility of an assessment. Conflict was reported when participants modified standardised assessments in an attempt to focus on context relevant activities and tasks. Participants were aware of the issues of reliability and validity but believed it was not practical to establish these aspects formally in most work-related assessments. The strategies used to achieve credibility, reliability, consistency, trustworthiness, validity, generalisability and quality were similar to those recommended for use in qualitative research. The strategies identified in this study can provide the basis for therapists to examine how they conduct work-related assessments and consider whether they currently use these strategies or have the opportunity to implement others.

  4. Sensors vs. experts - a performance comparison of sensor-based fall risk assessment vs. conventional assessment in a sample of geriatric patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marschollek, Michael; Rehwald, Anja; Wolf, Klaus-Hendrik; Gietzelt, Matthias; Nemitz, Gerhard; zu Schwabedissen, Hubertus Meyer; Schulze, Mareike

    2011-06-28

    Fall events contribute significantly to mortality, morbidity and costs in our ageing population. In order to identify persons at risk and to target preventive measures, many scores and assessment tools have been developed. These often require expertise and are costly to implement. Recent research investigates the use of wearable inertial sensors to provide objective data on motion features which can be used to assess individual fall risk automatically. So far it is unknown how well this new method performs in comparison with conventional fall risk assessment tools. The aim of our research is to compare the predictive performance of our new sensor-based method with conventional and established methods, based on prospective data. In a first study phase, 119 inpatients of a geriatric clinic took part in motion measurements using a wireless triaxial accelerometer during a Timed Up&Go (TUG) test and a 20 m walk. Furthermore, the St. Thomas Risk Assessment Tool in Falling Elderly Inpatients (STRATIFY) was performed, and the multidisciplinary geriatric care team estimated the patients' fall risk. In a second follow-up phase of the study, 46 of the participants were interviewed after one year, including a fall and activity assessment. The predictive performances of the TUG, the STRATIFY and team scores are compared. Furthermore, two automatically induced logistic regression models based on conventional clinical and assessment data (CONV) as well as sensor data (SENSOR) are matched. Among the risk assessment scores, the geriatric team score (sensitivity 56%, specificity 80%) outperforms STRATIFY and TUG. The induced logistic regression models CONV and SENSOR achieve similar performance values (sensitivity 68%/58%, specificity 74%/78%, AUC 0.74/0.72, +LR 2.64/2.61). Both models are able to identify more persons at risk than the simple scores. Sensor-based objective measurements of motion parameters in geriatric patients can be used to assess individual fall risk, and our

  5. Expert Systems as a Mindtool To Facilitate Mental Model Learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mason-Mason, Susan Dale; Tessmer, Martin A.

    2000-01-01

    This exploratory study investigated whether the process of constructing an expert system model promotes the formation of expert-like mental models. Discusses expert systems as mindtools, expert systems as learning tools, the assessment of mental models, results of pretests and posttests, and future research. (Contains 56 references.) (Author/LRW)

  6. Assessment of precast beam-column using capacity demand response spectrum subject to design basis earthquake and maximum considered earthquake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghani, Kay Dora Abd.; Tukiar, Mohd Azuan; Hamid, Nor Hayati Abdul

    2017-08-01

    Malaysia is surrounded by the tectonic feature of the Sumatera area which consists of two seismically active inter-plate boundaries, namely the Indo-Australian and the Eurasian Plates on the west and the Philippine Plates on the east. Hence, Malaysia experiences tremors from far distant earthquake occurring in Banda Aceh, Nias Island, Padang and other parts of Sumatera Indonesia. In order to predict the safety of precast buildings in Malaysia under near field ground motion the response spectrum analysis could be used for dealing with future earthquake whose specific nature is unknown. This paper aimed to develop of capacity demand response spectrum subject to Design Basis Earthquake (DBE) and Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) in order to assess the performance of precast beam column joint. From the capacity-demand response spectrum analysis, it can be concluded that the precast beam-column joints would not survive when subjected to earthquake excitation with surface-wave magnitude, Mw, of more than 5.5 Scale Richter (Type 1 spectra). This means that the beam-column joint which was designed using the current code of practice (BS8110) would be severely damaged when subjected to high earthquake excitation. The capacity-demand response spectrum analysis also shows that the precast beam-column joints in the prototype studied would be severely damaged when subjected to Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCE) with PGA=0.22g having a surface-wave magnitude of more than 5.5 Scale Richter, or Type 1 spectra.

  7. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Survey and assessment of conventional software verification and validation methods. Volume 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirsky, S.M.; Groundwater, E.H.; Hayes, J.E.; Miller, L.A. [Science Applications International Corp., McLean, VA (United States)

    1995-03-01

    By means of a literature survey, a comprehensive set of methods was identified for the verification and validation of conventional software. The 153 methods so identified were classified according to their appropriateness for various phases of a developmental life-cycle -- requirements, design, and implementation; the last category was subdivided into two, static testing and dynamic testing methods. The methods were then characterized in terms of eight rating factors, four concerning ease-of-use of the methods and four concerning the methods` power to detect defects. Based on these factors, two measurements were developed to permit quantitative comparisons among methods, a Cost-Benefit metric and an Effectiveness Metric. The Effectiveness Metric was further refined to provide three different estimates for each method, depending on three classes of needed stringency of V&V (determined by ratings of a system`s complexity and required-integrity). Methods were then rank-ordered for each of the three classes by terms of their overall cost-benefits and effectiveness. The applicability was then assessed of each for the identified components of knowledge-based and expert systems, as well as the system as a whole.

  8. Guidelines for the verification and validation of expert system software and conventional software: Survey and assessment of conventional software verification and validation methods. Volume 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirsky, S.M.; Groundwater, E.H.; Hayes, J.E.; Miller, L.A.

    1995-03-01

    By means of a literature survey, a comprehensive set of methods was identified for the verification and validation of conventional software. The 153 methods so identified were classified according to their appropriateness for various phases of a developmental life-cycle -- requirements, design, and implementation; the last category was subdivided into two, static testing and dynamic testing methods. The methods were then characterized in terms of eight rating factors, four concerning ease-of-use of the methods and four concerning the methods' power to detect defects. Based on these factors, two measurements were developed to permit quantitative comparisons among methods, a Cost-Benefit metric and an Effectiveness Metric. The Effectiveness Metric was further refined to provide three different estimates for each method, depending on three classes of needed stringency of V ampersand V (determined by ratings of a system's complexity and required-integrity). Methods were then rank-ordered for each of the three classes by terms of their overall cost-benefits and effectiveness. The applicability was then assessed of each for the identified components of knowledge-based and expert systems, as well as the system as a whole

  9. [Assessment on the capacity for programs regarding chronic non-communicable diseases prevention and control, in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Si, Xiang; Zhai, Yi; Shi, Xiaoming

    2014-06-01

    To assess the policies and programs on the capacity of prevention and control regarding non-communicable diseases (NCDs) at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDCs) at all levels and grass roots health care institutions, in China. On-line questionnaire survey was adopted by 3 352 CDCs at provincial, city and county levels and 1 200 grass roots health care institutions. 1) On policies: 75.0% of the provincial governments provided special funding for chronic disease prevention and control, whereas 19.7% city government and 11.3% county government did so. 2) Infrastructure:only 7.1% county level CDCs reported having a department taking care of NCD prevention and control. 8 263 staff members worked on NCDs prevention and control, accounting for 4.2% of all the CDCs' personnel. 40.2% CDCs had special funding used for NCDs prevention and control. 3)Capacity on training and guidance:among all the CDCs, 96.9% at provincial level, 50.3% at city level and 42.1% at county level had organized training on NCDs prevention and control. Only 48.3% of the CDCs at county level provided technical guidance for grass-roots health care institutions. 4) Capacities regarding cooperation and participation: 20.2% of the CDCs had experience in collaborating with mass media. 5) Surveillance capacity: 64.6% of the CDCs at county level implemented death registration, compare to less than 30.0% of CDCs at county level implemented surveillance programs on major NCDs and related risk factors. In the grass roots health care institutions, 18.6% implemented new stroke case reporting system but only 3.0% implemented program on myocardial infarction case reporting. 6) Intervention and management capacity: 36.1% and 32.2% of the CDCs conducted individualized intervention on hypertension and diabetes, while less than another 20% intervened into other NCDs and risk factors. More than 50% of the grass roots health care institutions carried follow-up survey on hypertension and diabetes. Rates

  10. Knowledge brokerage - potential for increased capacities and shared power in impact assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosario Partidario, Maria, E-mail: mrp@civil.ist.utl.pt [Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisbon, Portugal, Av. Rovisco Pais, 1049-001 LISBOA (Portugal); Sheate, William R., E-mail: w.sheate@imperial.ac.uk [Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, South Kensington Campus, London SW7 2AZ (United Kingdom); Collingwood Environmental Planning Ltd, London, 1E, The Chandlery, 50 Westminster Bridge Road, London SE1 7QY (United Kingdom)

    2013-02-15

    Constructive and collaborative planning theory has exposed the perceived limitations of public participation in impact assessment. At strategic levels of assessment the established norm can be misleading and practice is illusive. For example, debates on SEA effectiveness recognize insufficiencies, but are often based on questionable premises. The authors of this paper argue that public participation in strategic assessment requires new forms of information and engagement, consistent with the complexity of the issues at these levels and that strategic assessments can act as knowledge brokerage instruments with the potential to generate more participative environments and attitudes. The paper explores barriers and limitations, as well as the role of knowledge brokerage in stimulating the engagement of the public, through learning-oriented processes and responsibility sharing in more participative models of governance. The paper concludes with a discussion on building and inter-change of knowledge, towards creative solutions to identified problems, stimulating learning processes, largely beyond simple information transfer mechanisms through consultative processes. The paper argues fundamentally for the need to conceive strategic assessments as learning platforms and design knowledge brokerage opportunities explicitly as a means to enhance learning processes and power sharing in IA. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Debates on SEA recognize insufficiencies on public participation Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We propose new forms of engagement consistent with complex situations at strategic levels of decision-making Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Constructive and collaborative planning theories help explain how different actors acquire knowledge and the value of knowledge exchange Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Strategic assessments can act as knowledge brokerage instruments Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The paper argues for strategic assessments as learning

  11. Knowledge brokerage - potential for increased capacities and shared power in impact assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosario Partidario, Maria; Sheate, William R.

    2013-01-01

    Constructive and collaborative planning theory has exposed the perceived limitations of public participation in impact assessment. At strategic levels of assessment the established norm can be misleading and practice is illusive. For example, debates on SEA effectiveness recognize insufficiencies, but are often based on questionable premises. The authors of this paper argue that public participation in strategic assessment requires new forms of information and engagement, consistent with the complexity of the issues at these levels and that strategic assessments can act as knowledge brokerage instruments with the potential to generate more participative environments and attitudes. The paper explores barriers and limitations, as well as the role of knowledge brokerage in stimulating the engagement of the public, through learning-oriented processes and responsibility sharing in more participative models of governance. The paper concludes with a discussion on building and inter-change of knowledge, towards creative solutions to identified problems, stimulating learning processes, largely beyond simple information transfer mechanisms through consultative processes. The paper argues fundamentally for the need to conceive strategic assessments as learning platforms and design knowledge brokerage opportunities explicitly as a means to enhance learning processes and power sharing in IA. - Highlights: ► Debates on SEA recognize insufficiencies on public participation ► We propose new forms of engagement consistent with complex situations at strategic levels of decision-making ► Constructive and collaborative planning theories help explain how different actors acquire knowledge and the value of knowledge exchange ► Strategic assessments can act as knowledge brokerage instruments ► The paper argues for strategic assessments as learning platforms as a means to enhance learning processes and power sharing in IA.

  12. Improved acid neutralisation capacity assessment of iron carbonates by titration and theoretical calculation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weber, P.A.; Thomas, J.E.; Skinner, W.M.; Smart, R.St.C.

    2004-01-01

    The acid neutralisation capacity (ANC) of a rock sample containing significant amounts of Fe carbonates, as conducted to determine net acid production potential (NAPP), can be a difficult parameter to determine. Various ANC tests are available to determine the ANC of carbonates. This work does not attempt to create another ANC test protocol; rather, it provides a refinement for existing tests. Results showed that a significant lag period may be needed (up to 432 h) after standard Sobek-type ANC tests for the complete hydrolysis of Fe associated with the ANC testing of siderite. This lag occurred even with standard industry modifications that include the addition of 2 drops of H 2 O 2 at pH 4.5 during the back-titration. In this work the authors used a modification to the Sobek ANC test (the Modified Sobek ANC test) that included filtering and the addition of H 2 O 2 at pH 4.5. This test was further modified by the continuance of this H 2 O 2 addition (the H 2 O 2 ANC test) until there was no subsequent pH drop (which is due to Fe hydrolysis reactions), thereupon the back titration was continued to pH 7.0. Results indicated that the ANC for siderite (after 0 h) using the H 2 O 2 ANC test was similar to the ANC determined after 432 h lag by the Modified Sobek ANC test. This modification reduces the uncertainty related to static-test results for samples containing Fe carbonates. The test is simple to use, has industry application, and provides a better indication of the NAPP. The Modified Sobek ANC results for calcite and dolomite and the H 2 O 2 ANC test for siderite were in good agreement with the mineralogical carbonate ANC (ANC carb ). ANC carb was determined by calculation based on electron probe micro-analysis. Although lower than both the ANC carb and the ANC determined by titration, the chemical ANC calculated from the ions present in the ANC digestion liquor also provided a good indication of the overall acid neutralisation capacity of the sample

  13. A novel procedure for the assessment of the antioxidant capacity of food components.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshimura, Toshihiro; Harashima, Mai; Kurogi, Katsuhisa; Suiko, Masahito; Liu, Ming-Cheh; Sakakibara, Yoichi

    2016-08-15

    Carbonylation, an oxidative modification of the amino group of arginine and lysine residues caused by reactive oxygen species, has emerged as a new type of oxidative damage. Protein carbonylation has been shown to exert adverse effects on various protein functions. Recently, the role of food components in the attenuation of oxidative stress has been the focus of many studies. Most of these studies focused on the chemical properties of food components. However, it is also important to determine their effects on protein functions via post-translational modifications. In this study, we developed a novel procedure for evaluating the antioxidant capacity of food components. Hydrogen peroxide (H2O2)-induced protein carbonylation in HL-60 cells was quantitatively analyzed by using fluorescent dyes (Cy5-hydrazide dye and IC3-OSu dye), followed by sodium dodecyl sulfate-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis (SDS-PAGE) and fluorescence determination. Among a panel of food components tested, quinic acid, kaempferol, saponin, squalene, trigonelline, and mangiferin were shown to be capable of suppressing protein carbonylation in HL-60 cells. Our results demonstrated that this fluorescence labeling/SDS-PAGE procedure allows for the detection of oxidative stress-induced protein carbonylation with high sensitivity and quantitative accuracy. This method should be useful for the screening of new antioxidant food components as well as the analysis of their suppression mechanism. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. SUBSTRATES UTILIZATION TO ASSESS ROOTEDNESS CAPACITY AND VIABILITY BUDS AT SOME GRAPE VARIETIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gheorghe Cristian Popescu

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The cultivated grapevine (Vitis vinifera L. is a fruit crop of enormous economic importance with over eight million hectares planted in vineyards worldwide. Table grapes and wines represent a considerable share of the economy in many grape and wine-producing countries. During the dormant, due to low temperatures and how to prepare grape for entrance in winter time, wood annual increases and buds may be adversely affected. The way how the vines passed by dormant period can affect the buds and wood viability and rooting ability of vine cuttings. In this study were tested on different culture substrates vine cuttings belonging to a noble variety and a hybrid vines: Merlot and Isabella. Noble grapes are a term used to describe the international variety of grapes that are most recognizable for the top quality wine they produce. In this paper was determinate total dry matter of vine cuttings, humidity of biological material, vine cuttings rooting capacity and viability status buds cuttings placed on three nutritional substrates.

  15. Expert and competent non-expert visual cues during simulated diagnosis in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormack, Clare; Wiggins, Mark W; Loveday, Thomas; Festa, Marino

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye-tracker during the initial 90 s of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  16. Expert and Competent Non-Expert Visual Cues during Simulated Diagnosis in Intensive Care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clare eMcCormack

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to examine the information acquisition strategies of expert and competent non-expert intensive care physicians during two simulated diagnostic scenarios involving respiratory distress in an infant. Specifically, the information acquisition performance of six experts and 12 competent non-experts was examined using an eye tracker during the initial 90 seconds of the assessment of the patient. The results indicated that, in comparison to competent non-experts, experts recorded longer mean fixations, irrespective of the scenario. When the dwell times were examined against specific areas of interest, the results revealed that competent non-experts recorded greater overall dwell times on the nurse, where experts recorded relatively greater dwell times on the head and face of the manikin. In the context of the scenarios, experts recorded differential dwell times, spending relatively more time on the head and face during the seizure scenario than during the coughing scenario. The differences evident between experts and competent non-experts were interpreted as evidence of the relative availability of task-specific cues or heuristics in memory that might direct the process of information acquisition amongst expert physicians. The implications are discussed for the training and assessment of diagnostic skills.

  17. Assessment of bone formation capacity using in vivo transplantation assays: procedure and tissue analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abdallah, Basem; Ditzel, Nicholas; Kassem, Moustapha

    2008-01-01

    In vivo assessment of bone formation (osteogenesis) potential by isolated cells is an important method for analysis of cells and factors control ling bone formation. Currently, cell implantation mixed with hydroxyapa-tite/tricalcium phosphate in an open system (subcutaneous implantation) in immun...

  18. Expert systems and nuclear safety

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beltracchi, L.

    1990-01-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Electric Power Research Institute have initiated a broad-based exploration of means to evaluate the potential applications of expert systems in the nuclear industry. This exploratory effort will assess the use of expert systems to augment the diagnostic and decision-making capabilities of personnel with the goal of enhancing productivity, reliability, and performance. The initial research effort is the development and documentation of guidelines for verifying and validating (V and V) expert systems. An initial application of expert systems in the nuclear industry is to aid operations and maintenance personnel in decision-making tasks. The scope of the decision aiding covers all types of cognitive behavior consisting of skill, rule, and knowledge-based behavior. For example, procedure trackers were designed and tested to support rule-based behavior. Further, these systems automate many of the tedious, error-prone human monitoring tasks, thereby reducing the potential for human error. The paper version of the procedure contains the knowledge base and the rules and thus serves as the basis of the design verification of the procedure tracker. Person-in-the-loop tests serve as the basis for the validation of a procedure tracker. When conducting validation tests, it is important to ascertain that the human retains the locus of control in the use of the expert system

  19. A simple method for assessment of muscle force, velocity, and power producing capacities from functional movement tasks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zivkovic, Milena Z; Djuric, Sasa; Cuk, Ivan; Suzovic, Dejan; Jaric, Slobodan

    2017-07-01

    A range of force (F) and velocity (V) data obtained from functional movement tasks (e.g., running, jumping, throwing, lifting, cycling) performed under variety of external loads have typically revealed strong and approximately linear F-V relationships. The regression model parameters reveal the maximum F (F-intercept), V (V-intercept), and power (P) producing capacities of the tested muscles. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the level of agreement between the routinely used "multiple-load model" and a simple "two-load model" based on direct assessment of the F-V relationship from only 2 external loads applied. Twelve participants were tested on the maximum performance vertical jumps, cycling, bench press throws, and bench pull performed against a variety of different loads. All 4 tested tasks revealed both exceptionally strong relationships between the parameters of the 2 models (median R = 0.98) and a lack of meaningful differences between their magnitudes (fixed bias below 3.4%). Therefore, addition of another load to the standard tests of various functional tasks typically conducted under a single set of mechanical conditions could allow for the assessment of the muscle mechanical properties such as the muscle F, V, and P producing capacities.

  20. Assessment of the global intelligence and selective cognitive capacities in preterm 8-year-old children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Begega, Azucena; Méndez López, Magdalena; de Iscar, María Jesús; Cuesta-Izquierdo, Marcelino; Solís, Gonzalo; Fernández-Colomer, Belén; Álvarez, Luis; Méndez, Marta; Arias, Jorge L

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this study was to assess various cognitive abilities such as attention, IQ, reasoning, and memory related to academic achievement in 8- and 9-year-old preterm children. A total of 141 children were assessed. The preterm group (=37 weeks) comprised 63 children and was compared to 78 full-term children. Attention was evaluated using the d2 Selective Attention test, and the IQ by the L-M form of the Stanford-Binet Intelligence Scale, establishing a profile of abilities: perception, memory, comprehension, reasoning, and verbal fluency. Significant differences in IQ were found between the preterm and full-term children. Of the cognitive abilities assessed, the only significant differences were found in verbal fluency, with preterm boys showing lower verbal fluency scores than full-term children. In conclusion, all preterm groups have attention ability similar to that of full-term children. However, preterm children obtain lower scores in intelligence measures. In addition, preterm boys have verbal fluency difficulties. Taking into account the increase in preterm births, suitable intervention programs must be planned to attend the difficulties found.

  1. New criteria for inflammatory back pain in patients with chronic back pain: a real patient exercise by experts from the Assessment of SpondyloArthritis international Society (ASAS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sieper, J; van der Heijde, D; Landewé, R; Brandt, J; Burgos-Vagas, R; Collantes-Estevez, E; Dijkmans, B; Dougados, M; Khan, M A; Leirisalo-Repo, M; van der Linden, S; Maksymowych, W P; Mielants, H; Olivieri, I; Rudwaleit, M

    2009-06-01

    Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is an important clinical symptom in patients with axial spondyloarthritis (SpA), and relevant for classification and diagnosis. In the present report, a new approach for the development of IBP classification criteria is discussed. Rheumatologists (n = 13) who are experts in SpA took part in a 2-day international workshop to investigate 20 patients with back pain and possible SpA. Each expert documented the presence/absence of clinical parameters typical for IBP, and judged whether IBP was considered present or absent based on the received information. This expert judgement was used as the dependent variable in a logistic regression analysis in order to identify those individual IBP parameters that contributed best to a diagnosis of IBP. The new set of IBP criteria was validated in a separate cohort of patients (n = 648). Five parameters best explained IBP according to the experts. These were: (1) improvement with exercise (odds ratio (OR) 23.1); (2) pain at night (OR 20.4); (3) insidious onset (OR 12.7); (4) age at onset validation cohort. This new approach with real patients defines a set of IBP definition criteria using overall expert judgement on IBP as the gold standard. The IBP experts' criteria are robust, easy to apply and have good face validity.

  2. Application of expert systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Basden, A

    1983-11-01

    This article seeks to bring together a number of issues relevant to the application of expert systems by discussing their advantages and limitations, their roles and benefits, and the influence that real-life applications might have on the design of expert systems software. Part of the expert systems strategy of one major chemical company is outlined. Because it was in constructing one particular expert system that many of these issues became important this system is described briefly at the start of the paper and used to illustrate much of the later discussion. It is of the plausible-inference type and has application in the field of materials engineering. 22 references.

  3. Being an expert

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brechet, Y.; Musseau, O.; Bruna, G.; Sperandio, M.; Roulleaux-Dugage, M.; Andrieux, S.; Metteau, L.

    2014-01-01

    This series of short articles are dedicated to the role of the expert in the enterprise. There is an important difference between a scientific counsellor and an expert, the expert, recognized by his peers, can speak publicly in his field of expertise but has a duty of transparency while the job of a scientific counsellor requires confidentiality. The making and the use of an expert in an enterprise requires a dedicated organization. The organization of the expertise in 5 enterprises in nuclear industry are considered: CEA (French Alternative Energies and Atomic Energy Commission), IRSN (Institute of Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety), AREVA, ANDRA (National Radioactive Waste Management Agency) and EDF (Electricity of France)

  4. An assessment of boric acid and borax using the IEHR Evaluative Process for Assessing Human Developmental and Reproductive Toxicity of Agents. Expert Scientific Committee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, J A

    1997-01-01

    drinking water not exceed 0.6 mg B/L [0.06 mM B] over a lifetime of exposure. Dietary exposure to boron for an adult typically ranges from ranges from 0.25 to 3.1 mg B/d with an average of 1.5 mg B/d. The high end of the exposure range, 3.1 mg B/d, was selected by the Expert Committee as best estimate of exposure. It should be noted that a diet high in fruits, vegetables, grains, legumes, and other food stuffs with high boron contents may lead to daily exposures as high as 10 mg B/d from diet alone. Some body building supplements contain boron at levels ranging from 1.5 to 10 mg B, with a median of 4 mg B. Use of the supplements containing the median concentration of boron could equal the daily intake an individual receives from diet and drinking water combined. Adults in the U.S. at the high end of the food exposure range may typically ingest up to 3.5 mg B/d, or a daily dose of 0.005 mmol B/kg b.wt., through exposure from diet (3.1 mg B/d) and drinking water (0.4 mg B/d). Individuals who also use body-building supplements may have a total daily boron intake of 7.5 mg B resulting in a daily dose of 0.01 mmol B/kg b.wt./d. Occupational exposure to boron is mainly through inhalation of borate containing dust during mining and manufacturing processes. Current occupational exposures to boron are reported to result in a daily dose of < 0.0001 to 0.2 mmol B/kg b.wt./d. Current U.S. OSHA permissible exposure limit (PEL) for sodium tetraborates is 10 mg/m3, and the California Occupational Safety and Health Administration PEL is 5 mg/m3. An exposure of 5 mg B/m3 translates to approximately 0.01 mmol B/kg b.wt./d that, coincidentally, is the same as exposure levels associated with combined municipal drinking water, diet, and body building supplement consumption. Infants may receive exposures to boric acid when it is used as a household insecticide for cockroach control. Exposure from boric acid-containing cosmetic and personal care products applie

  5. Assessing Capacity for Providing Culturally Competent Services to LGBT Older Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portz, Jennifer Dickman; Retrum, Jessica H.; Wright, Leslie A.; Boggs, Jennifer M.; Wilkins, Shari; Grimm, Cathy; Gilchrist, Kay; Gozansky, Wendolyn S.

    2014-01-01

    This qualitative, interview-based study assessed the cultural competence of health and social service providers to meet the needs of LGBT older adults in an urban neighborhood in Denver, Colorado, known to have a large LGBT community. Only 4 of the agencies were categorized as “high competency” while 12 were felt to be “seeking improvement” and 8 were considered “not aware.” These results indicate significant gaps in cultural competency for the majority of service providers. Social workers are well-suited to lead efforts directed at improving service provision and care competencies for the older LGBT community. PMID:24798180

  6. Current challenges facing the assessment of the allergenic capacity of food allergens in animal models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bøgh, Katrine Lindholm; van Bilsen, Jolanda; Głogowski, Robert

    2016-01-01

    of novel food proteins. There is no doubt that robust and reliable animal models for the identification and characterization of food allergens would be valuable tools for safety assessment. However, although various animal models have been proposed for this purpose, to date, none have been formally...... validated as predictive and none are currently suitable to test the allergenic potential of new foods. Here, the design of various animal models are reviewed, including among others considerations of species and strain, diet, route of administration, dose and formulation of the test protein, relevant...

  7. Assessing Emergency Preparedness and Response Capacity Using Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response Methodology: Portsmouth, Virginia, 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurkjian, Katie M; Winz, Michelle; Yang, Jun; Corvese, Kate; Colón, Ana; Levine, Seth J; Mullen, Jessica; Ruth, Donna; Anson-Dwamena, Rexford; Bayleyegn, Tesfaye; Chang, David S

    2016-04-01

    For the past decade, emergency preparedness campaigns have encouraged households to meet preparedness metrics, such as having a household evacuation plan and emergency supplies of food, water, and medication. To estimate current household preparedness levels and to enhance disaster response planning, the Virginia Department of Health with remote technical assistance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention conducted a community health assessment in 2013 in Portsmouth, Virginia. Using the Community Assessment for Public Health Emergency Response (CASPER) methodology with 2-stage cluster sampling, we randomly selected 210 households for in-person interviews. Households were questioned about emergency planning and supplies, information sources during emergencies, and chronic health conditions. Interview teams completed 180 interviews (86%). Interviews revealed that 70% of households had an emergency evacuation plan, 67% had a 3-day supply of water for each member, and 77% had a first aid kit. Most households (65%) reported that the television was the primary source of information during an emergency. Heart disease (54%) and obesity (40%) were the most frequently reported chronic conditions. The Virginia Department of Health identified important gaps in local household preparedness. Data from the assessment have been used to inform community health partners, enhance disaster response planning, set community health priorities, and influence Portsmouth's Community Health Improvement Plan.

  8. Expert system technology for nondestructive waste assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becker, G.K.; Determan, J.C.

    1998-01-01

    Nondestructive assay waste characterization data generated for use in the National TRU Program must be of known and demonstrable quality. Each measurement is required to receive an independent technical review by a qualified expert. An expert system prototype has been developed to automate waste NDA data review of a passive/active neutron drum counter system. The expert system is designed to yield a confidence rating regarding measurement validity. Expert system rules are derived from data in a process involving data clustering, fuzzy logic, and genetic algorithms. Expert system performance is assessed against confidence assignments elicited from waste NDA domain experts. Performance levels varied for the active, passive shielded, and passive system assay modes of the drum counter system, ranging from 78% to 94% correct classifications

  9. International Expert Review of Sr-Can: Safety Assessment Methodology - External review contribution in support of SSI's and SKI's review of SR-Can

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagar, Budhi; Egan, Michael; Roehlig, Klaus-Juergen; Chapman, Neil; Wilmot, Roger

    2008-03-01

    In 2006, SKB published a safety assessment (SR-Can) as part of its work to support a licence application for the construction of a final repository for spent nuclear fuel. The purposes of the SR-Can project were stated in the main project report to be: 1. To make a first assessment of the safety of potential KBS-3 repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar to dispose of canisters as specified in the application for the encapsulation plant. 2. To provide feedback to design development, to SKB's research and development (R and D) programme, to further site investigations and to future safety assessments. 3. To foster a dialogue with the authorities that oversee SKB's activities, i.e. the Swedish Nuclear Power Inspectorate, SKI, and the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority, SSI, regarding interpretation of applicable regulations, as a preparation for the SR-Site project. To help inform their review of SKB's proposed approach to development of the longterm safety case, the authorities appointed three international expert review teams to carry out a review of SKB's SR-Can safety assessment report. Comments from one of these teams - the Safety Assessment Methodology (SAM) review team - are presented in this document. The SAM review team's scope of work included an examination of SKB's documentation of the assessment ('Long-term safety for KBS-3 Repositories at Forsmark and Laxemar - a first evaluation' and several supporting reports) and hearings with SKB staff and contractors, held in March 2007. As directed by SKI and SSI, the SAM review team focused on methodological aspects and sought to determine whether SKB's proposed safety assessment methodology is likely to be suitable for use in the future SR-Site and to assess its consistency with the Swedish regulatory framework. No specific evaluation of long-term safety or site acceptability was undertaken by any of the review teams. SKI and SSI's Terms of Reference for the SAM review team requested that consideration be given

  10. Influence of Professional Affiliation on Expert's View on Welfare Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dam Otten, Nina; Rousing, Tine; Forkman, Björn

    2017-01-01

    are not balanced in numbers of experts. At two time points (2012 and 2016), dairy cattle and swine experts from four different stakeholder groups, namely researchers (RES), production advisors (CONS), practicing veterinarians (VET) and animal welfare control officers (AWC) were asked to weigh eight different...... between expert groups among swine experts. Inter-expert differences were more pronounced for both species. The results highlight the challenges of using expert weightings in aggregated welfare assessment models, as the choice of expert affiliation may play a confounding role in the final aggregation due...

  11. An Observational Assessment of Anesthesia Capacity in Madagascar as a Prerequisite to the Development of a National Surgical Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Linden S; Ravelojaona, Vaonandianina A; Rakotoarison, Hasiniaina N; Herbert, Alison; Bruno, Emily; Close, Kristin L; Andean, Vanessa; Andriamanjato, Hery H; Shrime, Mark G; White, Michelle C

    2017-06-01

    The global lack of anesthesia capacity is well described, but country-specific data are needed to provide country-specific solutions. We aimed to assess anesthesia capacity in Madagascar as part of the development of a Ministry of Health national surgical plan. As part of a nationwide surgic