WorldWideScience

Sample records for expected value

  1. Expected Value

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Lapson

    1992-01-01

    A procedure for decision-making under risk is developed and axiomatized. It provides another explanation for the Allais paradox as well as justification for some other preference patterns that can not be represented by the expected utility model, but it includes expected utility representation fo preferences as a particular case. The idea of the procedure is that evaluation of the lotteries takes two steps. First, a decision maker classifies a lottery as a "bad," "good" or "medium" one. Then ...

  2. Learning Contextual Reward Expectations for Value Adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigoli, Francesco; Chew, Benjamin; Dayan, Peter; Dolan, Raymond J

    2018-01-01

    Substantial evidence indicates that subjective value is adapted to the statistics of reward expected within a given temporal context. However, how these contextual expectations are learned is poorly understood. To examine such learning, we exploited a recent observation that participants performing a gambling task adjust their preferences as a function of context. We show that, in the absence of contextual cues providing reward information, an average reward expectation was learned from recent past experience. Learning dependent on contextual cues emerged when two contexts alternated at a fast rate, whereas both cue-independent and cue-dependent forms of learning were apparent when two contexts alternated at a slower rate. Motivated by these behavioral findings, we reanalyzed a previous fMRI data set to probe the neural substrates of learning contextual reward expectations. We observed a form of reward prediction error related to average reward such that, at option presentation, activity in ventral tegmental area/substantia nigra and ventral striatum correlated positively and negatively, respectively, with the actual and predicted value of options. Moreover, an inverse correlation between activity in ventral tegmental area/substantia nigra (but not striatum) and predicted option value was greater in participants showing enhanced choice adaptation to context. The findings help understanding the mechanisms underlying learning of contextual reward expectation.

  3. Probability density of quantum expectation values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campos Venuti, L., E-mail: lcamposv@usc.edu; Zanardi, P.

    2013-10-30

    We consider the quantum expectation value A=〈ψ|A|ψ〉 of an observable A over the state |ψ〉. We derive the exact probability distribution of A seen as a random variable when |ψ〉 varies over the set of all pure states equipped with the Haar-induced measure. To illustrate our results we compare the exact predictions for few concrete examples with the concentration bounds obtained using Levy's lemma. We also comment on the relevance of the central limit theorem and finally draw some results on an alternative statistical mechanics based on the uniform measure on the energy shell. - Highlights: • We compute the probability distribution of quantum expectation values for states sampled uniformly. • As a special case we consider in some detail the degenerate case where A is a one-dimensional projector. • We compare the concentration results obtained using Levy's lemma with the exact values obtained using our exact formulae. • We comment on the possibility of a Central Limit Theorem and show approach to Gaussian for a few physical operators. • Some implications of our results for the so-called “Quantum Microcanonical Equilibration” (Refs. [5–9]) are derived.

  4. Duality, mass spectrum and vacuum expectation values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köberle, R.; Marino, E. C.

    1983-07-01

    We give a general proof that for an arbitrary two-dimensional theory containing order and disorder fields φ(x) and μ(x), defined so as to satisfy a dual algebra, then, the mass gap is zero, whenever =0 and =0. It is also shown that the dual algebra imposes certain restrictions on the mixed vacuum expectation values of the fields. In particular, the product and the two-point functions vanish. On leave of absence from and address after July 1, 1983, Departamento de Fisica, Universidade Federal de Sa~o Carlos, Cx.P. 676, 13560, Sa~o Carlos - SP Brazil.

  5. Probability density of quantum expectation values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campos Venuti, L.; Zanardi, P.

    2013-10-01

    We consider the quantum expectation value A= of an observable A over the state |ψ>. We derive the exact probability distribution of A seen as a random variable when |ψ> varies over the set of all pure states equipped with the Haar-induced measure. To illustrate our results we compare the exact predictions for few concrete examples with the concentration bounds obtained using Levy's lemma. We also comment on the relevance of the central limit theorem and finally draw some results on an alternative statistical mechanics based on the uniform measure on the energy shell.

  6. Expectancy-Value and Children's Science Achievement: Parents Matter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Julie A.; Strunk, Kamden K.

    2017-01-01

    This longitudinal study explored the ways parents' and teachers' expectancy for success influences 3rd-5th children's expectancy for success and achievement in science. Guided by an open-systems perspective and functional (Ballantine & Roberts, 2007) and expectancy-value (Eccles, 2005, 2007) theories, we focused on school related socialization…

  7. Best Practice Life Expectancy: An Extreme value Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life...

  8. Stochastic Samples versus Vacuum Expectation Values in Cosmology

    CERN Document Server

    Tsamis, N C; Woodard, R P

    2010-01-01

    Particle theorists typically use expectation values to study the quantum back-reaction on inflation, whereas many cosmologists stress the stochastic nature of the process. While expectation values certainly give misleading results for some things, such as the stress tensor, we argue that operators exist for which there is no essential problem. We quantify this by examining the stochastic properties of a noninteracting, massless, minimally coupled scalar on a locally de Sitter background. The square of the stochastic realization of this field seems to provide an example of great relevance for which expectation values are not misleading. We also examine the frequently expressed concern that significant back-reaction from expectation values necessarily implies large stochastic fluctuations between nearby spatial points. Rather than viewing the stochastic formalism in opposition to expectation values, we argue that it provides a marvelously simple way of capturing the leading infrared logarithm corrections to the...

  9. Determining the quantum expectation value by measuring a single photon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, Fabrizio; Avella, Alessio; Rebufello, Enrico; Lussana, Rudi; Villa, Federica; Tosi, Alberto; Gramegna, Marco; Brida, Giorgio; Cohen, Eliahu; Vaidman, Lev; Degiovanni, Ivo P.; Genovese, Marco

    2017-12-01

    One description provides only probabilities for obtaining various eigenvalues of a quantum variable. The eigenvalues and the corresponding probabilities specify the expectation value of a physical observable, which is known to be a statistical property of an ensemble of quantum systems. In contrast to this paradigm, here we demonstrate a method for measuring the expectation value of a physical variable on a single particle, namely, the polarization of a single protected photon. This realization of quantum protective measurements could find applications in the foundations of quantum mechanics and quantum-enhanced measurements.

  10. Hamiltonian approach to Ehrenfest expectation values and Gaussian quantum states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonet-Luz, Esther; Tronci, Cesare

    2016-05-01

    The dynamics of quantum expectation values is considered in a geometric setting. First, expectation values of the canonical observables are shown to be equivariant momentum maps for the action of the Heisenberg group on quantum states. Then, the Hamiltonian structure of Ehrenfest's theorem is shown to be Lie-Poisson for a semidirect-product Lie group, named the Ehrenfest group. The underlying Poisson structure produces classical and quantum mechanics as special limit cases. In addition, quantum dynamics is expressed in the frame of the expectation values, in which the latter undergo canonical Hamiltonian motion. In the case of Gaussian states, expectation values dynamics couples to second-order moments, which also enjoy a momentum map structure. Eventually, Gaussian states are shown to possess a Lie-Poisson structure associated with another semidirect-product group, which is called the Jacobi group. This structure produces the energy-conserving variant of a class of Gaussian moment models that have previously appeared in the chemical physics literature.

  11. Do individuals consider expected income when valuing health states?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidson, Thomas; Levin, Lars-Ake

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to empirically explore whether individuals take their expected income into consideration when directly valuing predefined health states. This was intended to help determine how to handle productivity costs due to morbidity in a cost-effectiveness analysis. Two hundred students each valued four hypothetical health states by using time trade-off (TTO) and a visual analogue scale (VAS). The students were randomly assigned to two groups. One group was simply asked, without mentioning income, to value the different health states (the non-income group). The other group was explicitly asked to consider their expected income in relation to the health states in their valuations (the income group). For health states that are usually assumed to have a large effect on income, the valuations made by the income group seemed to be lower than the valuations made by the non-income group. Among the students in the non-income group, 96 percent stated that they had not thought about their expected income when they valued the health states. In the income group, 40 percent believed that their expected income had affected their valuations of the health states. The results show that, as long as income is not mentioned, most individuals do not seem to consider their expected income when they value health states. This indicates that productivity costs due to morbidity are not captured within individuals' health state valuations. These findings, therefore, suggest that productivity costs due to morbidity should be included as a cost in cost-effectiveness analyses.

  12. An Efficient Estimator for the Expected Value of Sample Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menzies, Nicolas A

    2016-04-01

    Conventional estimators for the expected value of sample information (EVSI) are computationally expensive or limited to specific analytic scenarios. I describe a novel approach that allows efficient EVSI computation for a wide range of study designs and is applicable to models of arbitrary complexity. The posterior parameter distribution produced by a hypothetical study is estimated by reweighting existing draws from the prior distribution. EVSI can then be estimated using a conventional probabilistic sensitivity analysis, with no further model evaluations and with a simple sequence of calculations (Algorithm 1). A refinement to this approach (Algorithm 2) uses smoothing techniques to improve accuracy. Algorithm performance was compared with the conventional EVSI estimator (2-level Monte Carlo integration) and an alternative developed by Brennan and Kharroubi (BK), in a cost-effectiveness case study. Compared with the conventional estimator, Algorithm 2 exhibited a root mean square error (RMSE) 8%-17% lower, with far fewer model evaluations (3-4 orders of magnitude). Algorithm 1 produced results similar to those of the conventional estimator when study evidence was weak but underestimated EVSI when study evidence was strong. Compared with the BK estimator, the proposed algorithms reduced RSME by 18%-38% in most analytic scenarios, with 40 times fewer model evaluations. Algorithm 1 performed poorly in the context of strong study evidence. All methods were sensitive to the number of samples in the outer loop of the simulation. The proposed algorithms remove two major challenges for estimating EVSI--the difficulty of estimating the posterior parameter distribution given hypothetical study data and the need for many model evaluations to obtain stable and unbiased results. These approaches make EVSI estimation feasible for a wide range of analytic scenarios. © The Author(s) 2015.

  13. Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain

    OpenAIRE

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

    2014-01-01

    The brain undergoes significant maturation during adolescence that influences reward sensitivity and risk-taking behavior. However, it is unknown if the adolescent brain truly values rewards in a way that is unique from the mature brain or if confounding factors contribute to this developmental difference. Here we show that adolescents place greater value on rewards than do adults through exaggerated activation of the ventral striatum and that this valuation increases gambling behavior. This ...

  14. Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

    2012-01-01

    In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

  15. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  16. Necessity of eigenstate thermalisation for equilibration towards unique expectation values when starting from generic initial states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartsch, C.; Gemmer, J.

    2017-04-01

    We investigate dynamical equilibration of expectation values in closed quantum systems for realistic non-equilibrium initial states. Thereby we find that the corresponding long-time expectation values depend on the initial expectation values if eigenstate thermalisation is violated. An analytical expression for the deviation from the expected ensemble value is derived for small displacements from equilibrium. Additional numerics for magnetisation and energy equilibration in an asymmetric anisotropic spin-(1/2)-ladder demonstrate that the analytical predictions persist beyond the limits of the theory. The results suggest eigenstate thermalisation as a physically necessary condition for initial-state-independent equilibration.

  17. Why work? : the contribution of value perceptions and efficacy expectations to organizational commitment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, Hubrecht A.

    2006-01-01

    The dissertation describes a project aimed at an understanding of the way both (congruence between) organizational and individual values and efficacy expectations contribute to organizational commitment.

  18. Expectations and Values of University Students in Transition: Evidence from an Australian Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Cecil A. L.; Chatterjee, Samir R.

    2004-01-01

    Reforms in the functioning and purpose of higher education during the past 2 decades have created profound changes in the expectations and values of university students worldwide. Indeed, the values of entrepreneurship, vocational relevance, and commercial success have considerably displaced the traditional expectations of knowledge acquisition…

  19. Ninth Graders' Energy Balance Knowledge and Physical Activity Behavior: An Expectancy-Value Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy beliefs and task values are two essential motivators in physical education. This study was designed to identify the relation between the expectancy-value constructs (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995) and high school students' physical activity behavior as associated with their energy balance knowledge. High school students (N = 195) in two…

  20. Expectancy-Value and Cognitive Process Outcomes in Mathematics Learning: A Structural Equation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Huy P.

    2014-01-01

    Existing research has yielded evidence to indicate that the expectancy-value theoretical model predicts students' learning in various achievement contexts. Achievement values and self-efficacy expectations, for example, have been found to exert positive effects on cognitive process and academic achievement outcomes. We tested a conceptual model…

  1. Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation, Achievement in Physical Education, and Physical Activity Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the relation between adolescent expectancy-value motivation, achievements, and after-school physical activity participation. Adolescents (N = 854) from 12 middle schools completed an expectancy-value motivation questionnaire, pre and posttests in psychomotor skill and health-related fitness knowledge tests, and a three-day…

  2. Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

  3. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  4. Role Of Perceived Value, Customer Expectation, Corporate Image And Perceived Service Quality On The Customer Satisfaction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rizwan Ali; Gao Leifu; Muhammad YasirRafiq; Mudassar Hassan

    2015-01-01

      This study sets out to investigate the influence of perceived value, customer expectation, corporate image and perceived service quality on the customer satisfaction particularly in Pakistan telecommunication industry...

  5. The Study of the Entrepreneur’s Values and Knowledge: Influence in Growth Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Campos

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examines how entrepreneur’s values and knowledge can influence growth expectations in new technology-ventures. The study analyses six Spanish cases with different level of growth expectations in their first years and with different characteristics in the entrepreneurial team. Our research reveals that entrepreneur’s knowledge is not a factor that helps to differentiate the level of growth in this specific sector. However, we found certain values present in those new ventures with a higher growth expectations, mainly independence and wealth. The values that were not related are the need of exploitation and security. Finally, we draw a model to understand the relationship between entrepreneur’s values and knowledge and their impact on new technology venture growth expectations.

  6. Correction: Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hart Teresa L

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Correction to Tudor-Locke C, Hart TL, Washington TL: Expected values for pedometer-determined physical activity in older populations. International Journal of Behavioral Nutrition and Physical Activity 2009, 6:59

  7. Expectation Value Calculation of Grid QoS Parameters Based on Algorithm Prim

    OpenAIRE

    Kaijian Liang; Linfeng Bai; Xilong Qu

    2011-01-01

    From the perspective of selecting service by QoS attributes, a computation method of QoS expectation value, which is based on Algorithm Prim, was presented to provide support for selection of service. On the basis of the ability of service providers, by Algorithm Prim, this method succeded in calculating a set of balanced expectation values of QoS. Selection of service based on these QoS values would be beneficial to optimization of system resources and protection of the users of those servic...

  8. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

    2017-01-01

    Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy-achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy-achievement and efficacy-course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

  9. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Doménech-Betoret

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy–achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM. The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy–achievement and efficacy–course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

  10. Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

  11. Investigating and improving student understanding of the expectation values of observables in quantum mechanics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

    2017-07-01

    The expectation value of an observable is an important concept in quantum mechanics since measurement outcomes are, in general, probabilistic and we only have information about the probability distribution of measurement outcomes in a given quantum state of a system. However, we find that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students in physics have both conceptual and procedural difficulties when determining the expectation value of a physical observable in a given quantum state in terms of the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the corresponding operator, especially when using Dirac notation. Here we first describe the difficulties that these students have with determining the expectation value of an observable in Dirac notation. We then discuss how the difficulties found via student responses to written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the expectation value. The QuILT strives to help students integrate conceptual understanding and procedural skills to develop a coherent understanding of the expectation value. We discuss the effectiveness of the QuILT in helping students learn this concept from in-class evaluations.

  12. Optimal sample size determinations from an industry perspective based on the expected value of information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willan, Andrew R

    2008-01-01

    Traditional sample size calculations for randomized clinical trials depend on somewhat arbitrarily chosen factors, such as type I and II errors. As an alternative, taking a societal perspective, and using the expected value of information based on Bayesian decision theory, a number of authors have recently shown how to determine the sample size that maximizes the expected net gain, i.e., the difference between the cost of the trial and the value of the information gained from the results. Other authors have proposed Bayesian methods to determine sample sizes from an industry perspective. The purpose of this article is to propose a Bayesian approach to sample size calculations from an industry perspective that attempts to determine the sample size that maximizes expected profit. A model is proposed for expected total profit that includes consideration of per-patient profit, disease incidence, time horizon, trial duration, market share, discount rate, and the relationship between the results and the probability of regulatory approval. The expected value of information provided by trial data is related to the increase in expected profit from increasing the probability of regulatory approval. The methods are applied to an example, including an examination of robustness. The model is extended to consider market share as a function of observed treatment effect. The use of methods based on the expected value of information can provide, from an industry perspective, robust sample size solutions that maximize the difference between the expected cost of the trial and the expected value of information gained from the results. The method is only as good as the model for expected total profit. Although the model probably has all the right elements, it assumes that market share, per-patient profit, and incidence are insensitive to trial results. The method relies on the central limit theorem which assumes that the sample sizes involved ensure that the relevant test statistics

  13. An expectancy-value model of emotion regulation: implications for motivation, emotional experience, and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamir, Maya; Bigman, Yochanan E; Rhodes, Emily; Salerno, James; Schreier, Jenna

    2015-02-01

    According to expectancy-value models of self-regulation, people are motivated to act in ways they expect to be useful to them. For instance, people are motivated to run when they believe running is useful, even when they have nothing to run away from. Similarly, we propose an expectancy-value model of emotion regulation, according to which people are motivated to emote in ways they expect to be useful to them, regardless of immediate contextual demands. For instance, people may be motivated to get angry when they believe anger is useful, even when there is nothing to be angry about. In 5 studies, we demonstrate that leading people to expect an emotion to be useful increased their motivation to experience that emotion (Studies 1-5), led them to up-regulate the experience of that emotion (Studies 3-4), and led to emotion-consistent behavior (Study 4). Our hypotheses were supported when we manipulated the expected value of anxiety (Study 1) and anger (Studies 2-5), both consciously (Studies 1-4) and unconsciously (Study 5). We discuss the theoretical and pragmatic implications of the proposed model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  14. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2017-06-01

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  15. Altered representation of expected value in the orbitofrontal cortex in mania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bermpohl, Felix; Kahnt, Thorsten; Dalanay, Umut; Hägele, Claudia; Sajonz, Bastian; Wegner, Tristan; Stoy, Meline; Adli, Mazda; Krüger, Stephanie; Wrase, Jana; Ströhle, Andreas; Bauer, Michael; Heinz, Andreas

    2010-07-01

    Increased responsiveness to appetitive and reduced responsiveness to aversive anticipatory cues may be associated with dysfunction of the brain reward system in mania. Here we studied neural correlates of gain and loss expectation in mania using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Fifteen manic patients and 26 matched healthy control individuals performed a monetary incentive delay task, during which subjects anticipated to win or lose a varying amount of money. Varying both magnitude and valence (win, loss) of anticipatory cues allowed us to isolate the effects of magnitude, valence and expected value (magnitude-by-valence interaction). Response times and total gain amount did not differ significantly between groups. FMRI data indicated that the ventral striatum responded according to cued incentive magnitude in both groups, and this effect did not significantly differ between groups. However, a significant group difference was observed for expected value representation in the left lateral orbitofrontal cortex (OFC; BA 11 and 47). In this region, patients showed increasing BOLD responses during expectation of increasing gain and decreasing responses during expectation of increasing loss, while healthy subjects tended to show the inverse effect. In seven patients retested after remission OFC responses adapted to the response pattern of healthy controls. The observed alterations are consistent with a state-related affective processing bias during the expectation of gains and losses which may contribute to clinical features of mania, such as the enhanced motivation for seeking rewards and the underestimation of risks and potential punishments. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  16. The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

  17. The Predictive Value of Smoking Expectancy and the Heritability of its Accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.L.; Boomsma, D.I.; Lubke, G.H.; Bartels, M.; Vink, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Among smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers, this study aimed to (a) determine the predictive value of smoking expectancy on future smoking status, and (b) test the relative contribution of genes and environment to a person's ability to accurately predict future smoking status.

  18. The predictive value of smoking expectancy and the heritability of its accuracy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Treur, J.L.; Boomsma, D.I.; Lubke, G.H.; Bartels, M.; Vink, J.M.

    2014-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Among smokers, former smokers, and never-smokers, this study aimed to (a) determine the predictive value of smoking expectancy on future smoking status, and (b) test the relative contribution of genes and environment to a person's ability to accurately predict future smoking status.

  19. Current Methodologies for the Analysis of Contingency Tables: Robustness with Respect to Small Expected Values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-06-09

    robustness with respect to * small expected values is significantly improved as the size .of the table 3 7 SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF TIlS PA6EWhRMa Dots ...appropriate. The 95 percent confi- -- deuce intervals; based on the Monte Carlo, sampling of 2000 tables, the normal approximation to the binomial, and the

  20. A value- and expectancy-based approach to understanding residents' intended response to a wildfire threat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNeill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    of a community fire threat. A scenario study among 339 Western Australians revealed that residents intending to leave immediately on awareness of a community fire threat differ from those not intending to leave immediately in both value and expectancy. For one, intended leavers were more likely than those...

  1. Investigation of the Effects of Expectation Values for Radii on the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    Jan 27, 2016 ... Transition probabilities for some excited s–p and p–s transition arrays of neutral nitrogen have been calculated using the weakest bound electron potential model theory (WBEPMT) for the investigation of effects of expectation values of radii.We have used both numerical non-relativistic Hartree-Fock (NRHF) ...

  2. Social Influences, School Motivation and Gender Differences: An Application of the Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Weihua

    2011-01-01

    The present study examined the structural relations of social influences, task values, ability beliefs, educational expectation and academic engagement for both boys and girls. The structural equation modelling analyses provided nationally representative evidence of gender differences in: (1) the links from teacher-student relationship and peer…

  3. The Role of Value Orientations in Curricular Decision Making: A Rationale for Teachers' Goals and Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennis, Catherine D.; And Others

    1992-01-01

    Physical education teachers who exhibited one of two orientations (disciplinary mastery/learning process or ecological integration/social reconstruction) were interviewed to examine the extent to which their value orientations influenced their stated goals for student learning and their expectations for academic performance and behavior. Goals and…

  4. Integrating Experiential Value of Blog Use into the Expectation-Confirmation Theory Model

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tang, Jeung-tai E; Chiang, Chi-hui

    2010-01-01

    ... for the study of blog continuance effects. Keywords: blog, expectation-confirmation theory, experiential value, satisfaction. In recent years, weblogs (blogs) have become popular forums on the Internet and have changed the nature of human social interaction by allowing people to connect with many other individuals worldwide. Some scholars have found ...

  5. Achievement, motivation, and educational choices: A longitudinal study of expectancy and value using a multiplicative perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D; Marsh, Herbert W; Morin, Alexandre J S

    2015-08-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes during the transition into early adulthood. Participants were from a nationally representative longitudinal sample of 15-year-old Australian youths (N = 10,370). The results suggest that (a) both math self-concept and intrinsic value interact in predicting advanced math course selection, matriculation results, entrance into university, and STEM fields of study; (b) prior reading achievement has negative effects on advanced math course selection and STEM fields through math motivational beliefs; and (c) gender differences in educational outcomes are mediated by gender differences in motivational beliefs and prior academic achievement, while the processes underlying choice of educational pathway were similar for males and females. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronis, Lazaros; Barton, Pelham M

    2016-04-01

    Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the major digital currencies

    OpenAIRE

    Stavroyiannis, Stavros

    2017-01-01

    Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used is GARCH modelling followed by Filtered Historical Simulation. We find that digital currencies are subject to a higher risk, therefore, to higher sufficient buffer and risk capit...

  8. Relaxation to equilibrium of the expectation values in macroscopic quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monnai, Takaaki

    2011-07-01

    A quantum mechanical explanation of the relaxation to equilibrium is shown for macroscopic systems for nonintegrable cases and numerically verified. The macroscopic system is initially in an equilibrium state, subsequently externally perturbed during a finite time, and then isolated for a sufficiently long time. We show a quantitative explanation that the initial microcanonical state typically reaches a state whose expectation values are well approximated by the average over another microcanonical ensemble.

  9. The Structure of Students’ Motivation: Expectancies and Values in Taking Data Science Course

    OpenAIRE

    Valeria Ivaniushina; Daniil Alexandrov; Ilya Musabirov

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we explore motivational structure of students taking a challenging university course. The participants were second-year undergraduate students majoring in Economics, Sociology, Management and Humanities, enrolled in the Data Science minor. Using expectancy-value theory as a framework, we aim (1) to analyze gender differences in motivation; (2) to identify the link between the components of motivation and academic achievement; (3) to estimate the role of the previous academic ach...

  10. Extremal Density Matrices for the Expectation Value of a Qudit Hamiltonian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaños, O.; Figueroa, A.; López, J.; López-Peña, R.

    2017-05-01

    An algebraic procedure to find extremal density matrices for the expectation value of a finite Hamiltonian matrix is established. The extremal density matrices for pure states provide a complete description of the system, that is, its corresponding energy spectrum and projectors. For density matrices representing mixed states, one gets the most probable eigenstates that yield extremal mean values of the energy. The procedure uses mainly the stationary solutions of the von Neumann equation of motion, the orbits of the Hamiltonian, and the positivity conditions of the density matrix. The method is illustrated for matrix Hamiltonians of dimensions d = 2 and d = 3.

  11. The values expectations of high school graduates at the choice of the faculty and future occupation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Nebojša B.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many psychological references to professional orientation of pupils. However, mainly studied predictors were the role of school, peers, parents, socio-economics factors, and less the role of personality traits, goals, expectations, personal and social values. In this paper the focus is on personal goals and social values defined as specific objectives that are significant for a faculty choice, and therefore a future profession. We use two lists of goals - 18 personal and 18 social, applied to the sample of 497 high school pupils in fourth grade. The study was conducted in school settings. Preference and level of importance of the objectives of respondents have been expressed on the 5-point scale of Likert type, which allowed the statistical analysis of applied methods. The research results show significant differences in individual preferences of the goals and values, as well as the significantly connection of the goals with expectations to be fulfilled by faculty and future career choice. In addition, it was shown that the higher importance is given to personal than social values, which justified starting assumption of the authors, to examine personal and social values separately, since they were shown to have a different significance for professional orientation of young people.

  12. The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

  13. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  14. Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

  15. Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

    2017-08-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

  16. Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

    2013-05-01

    Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

  17. The expected value of control: an integrative theory of anterior cingulate cortex function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shenhav, Amitai; Botvinick, Matthew M; Cohen, Jonathan D

    2013-07-24

    The dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) has a near-ubiquitous presence in the neuroscience of cognitive control. It has been implicated in a diversity of functions, from reward processing and performance monitoring to the execution of control and action selection. Here, we propose that this diversity can be understood in terms of a single underlying function: allocation of control based on an evaluation of the expected value of control (EVC). We present a normative model of EVC that integrates three critical factors: the expected payoff from a controlled process, the amount of control that must be invested to achieve that payoff, and the cost in terms of cognitive effort. We propose that dACC integrates this information, using it to determine whether, where and how much control to allocate. We then consider how the EVC model can explain the diverse array of findings concerning dACC function. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dever, Bridget V.

    2016-01-01

    Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

  19. Computation of expectation values from vibrational coupled-cluster at the two-mode coupling level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zoccante, Alberto; Seidler, Peter; Christiansen, Ove

    2011-01-01

    In this work we show how the vibrational coupled-cluster method at the two-mode coupling level can be used to calculate zero-point vibrational averages of properties. A technique is presented, where any expectation value can be calculated using a single set of Lagrangian multipliers computed...... solving iteratively a single linear set of equations. Sample calculations are presented which show that the resulting algorithm scales only with the third power of the number of modes, therefore making large systems accessible. Moreover, we present applications to water, pyrrole, and para-nitroaniline....

  20. Racing Sampling Based Microimmune Optimization Approach Solving Constrained Expected Value Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates a bioinspired microimmune optimization algorithm to solve a general kind of single-objective nonlinear constrained expected value programming without any prior distribution. In the study of algorithm, two lower bound sample estimates of random variables are theoretically developed to estimate the empirical values of individuals. Two adaptive racing sampling schemes are designed to identify those competitive individuals in a given population, by which high-quality individuals can obtain large sampling size. An immune evolutionary mechanism, along with a local search approach, is constructed to evolve the current population. The comparative experiments have showed that the proposed algorithm can effectively solve higher-dimensional benchmark problems and is of potential for further applications.

  1. Applying an expectancy-value model to study motivators for work-task based information seeking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigaard, Karen Tølbøl; Skov, Mette

    2015-01-01

    for interpersonal and internal sources increased when the task had high-value motivation or low-expectancy motivation or both. Research limitations/implications: The study is based on a relatively small sample and considers only one motivation theory. This should be addressed in future research along...... with a broadening of the studied group to involve other professions than municipality consultants. Originality/value: Motivational theories from the field of psychology have been used sparsely in studies of information seeking. This study operationalises and verifies such a theory based on a theoretical adaptation......Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to operationalise and verify a cognitive motivation model that has been adapted to information seeking. The original model was presented within the field of psychology. Design/methodology/approach: An operationalisation of the model is presented based...

  2. Double impact of sterilizing pathogens: added value of increased life expectancy on pest control effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berec, Luděk; Maxin, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Sterilizing pathogens are commonly assumed not to affect longevity of infected individuals, and if they do then negatively. Examples abound, however, of species in which the absence of reproduction actually increases life expectancy. This happens because by decreasing the energy outlay on reproduction individuals with lowered reproduction can live longer. Alternatively, fertile individuals are more susceptible to predators or parasitoids if the latter can capitalize on mating signals of the former. Here we develop and analyze an SI epidemiological model to explore whether and to what extent does such a life expectancy prolongation due to sterilizing pathogens affect host dynamics. In particular, we are interested in an added value of increased life expectancy on the possibility of successful pest control, that is, the effect of increased lifespan and hence increased potential of the infected individuals to spread the disease on pest control effectiveness. We show that although the parameter range in which we observe an effect of increased lifespan of the sterilized individuals is not large, the effect itself can be significant. In particular, the increase in pest control effectiveness can be very dramatic when disease transmission efficiency is close to birth rate, mortality rate of susceptibles is relatively high (i.e., the species is relatively short-lived), and sterilization efficiency is relatively high. Our results thus characterize pathogens that are promising candidates for an effective pest control and that might possibly be engineered if not occurring naturally.

  3. A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

    2015-01-01

    We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

  4. Funny money: the attentional role of monetary feedback detached from expected value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, Zachary J J; Vecera, Shaun P

    2016-10-01

    Stimuli associated with monetary reward can become powerful cues that effectively capture visual attention. We examined whether such value-driven attentional capture can be induced with monetary feedback in the absence of an expected cash payout. To this end, we implemented images of U.S. dollar bills as reward feedback. Participants knew in advance that they would not receive any money based on their performance. Our reward stimuli-$5 and $20 bill images-were thus dissociated from any practical utility. Strikingly, we observed a reliable attentional capture effect for the mere images of bills. Moreover, this finding generalized to Monopoly money. In two control experiments, we found no evidence in favor of nominal or symbolic monetary value. Hence, we claim that bill images are special monetary representations, such that there are strong associations between the defining visual features of bills and reward, probably due to a lifelong learning history. Together, we show that the motivation to earn cash plays a minor role when it comes to monetary rewards, while bill-defining visual features seem to be sufficient. These findings have the potential to influence human factor applications, such as gamification, and can be extended to novel value systems, such as the electronic cash Bitcoin being developed for use in mobile banking. Finally, our procedure represents a proof of concept on how images of money can be used to conserve expenditures in the experimental context.

  5. Which uncertainty? Using expert elicitation and expected value of information to design an adaptive program

    Science.gov (United States)

    Runge, Michael C.; Converse, Sarah J.; Lyons, James E.

    2011-01-01

    Natural resource management is plagued with uncertainty of many kinds, but not all uncertainties are equally important to resolve. The promise of adaptive management is that learning in the short-term will improve management in the long-term; that promise is best kept if the focus of learning is on those uncertainties that most impede achievement of management objectives. In this context, an existing tool of decision analysis, the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), is particularly valuable in identifying the most important uncertainties. Expert elicitation can be used to develop preliminary predictions of management response under a series of hypotheses, as well as prior weights for those hypotheses, and the EVPI can be used to determine how much management could improve if uncertainty was resolved. These methods were applied to management of whooping cranes (Grus americana), an endangered migratory bird that is being reintroduced in several places in North America. The Eastern Migratory Population of whooping cranes had exhibited almost no successful reproduction through 2009. Several dozen hypotheses can be advanced to explain this failure, and many of them lead to very different management responses. An expert panel articulated the hypotheses, provided prior weights for them, developed potential management strategies, and made predictions about the response of the population to each strategy under each hypothesis. Multi-criteria decision analysis identified a preferred strategy in the face of uncertainty, and analysis of the expected value of information identified how informative each strategy could be. These results provide the foundation for design of an adaptive management program.

  6. From free energy to expected energy: Improving energy-based value function approximation in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfwing, Stefan; Uchibe, Eiji; Doya, Kenji

    2016-12-01

    Free-energy based reinforcement learning (FERL) was proposed for learning in high-dimensional state and action spaces. However, the FERL method does only really work well with binary, or close to binary, state input, where the number of active states is fewer than the number of non-active states. In the FERL method, the value function is approximated by the negative free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). In our earlier study, we demonstrated that the performance and the robustness of the FERL method can be improved by scaling the free energy by a constant that is related to the size of network. In this study, we propose that RBM function approximation can be further improved by approximating the value function by the negative expected energy (EERL), instead of the negative free energy, as well as being able to handle continuous state input. We validate our proposed method by demonstrating that EERL: (1) outperforms FERL, as well as standard neural network and linear function approximation, for three versions of a gridworld task with high-dimensional image state input; (2) achieves new state-of-the-art results in stochastic SZ-Tetris in both model-free and model-based learning settings; and (3) significantly outperforms FERL and standard neural network function approximation for a robot navigation task with raw and noisy RGB images as state input and a large number of actions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  7. Gauge fields and gauge symmetry at high temperature: Possibility of a vacuum expectation value of O ( g sup 2 T )

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawayanagi, H. (Kushiro National College of Technology, Kushiro, 084 (Japan))

    1992-05-15

    SU(2) gauge theory without fermions is studied at high temperature. The possibility that the temporal component of the gauge field {ital A}{sub 4} acquires a vacuum expectation value is considered. It is shown that in order to avoid tachyonic poles in a new vacuum, the magnitude of the vacuum expectation value {l angle}{ital gA}{sub 4}{r angle} is of order {ital g}{sup 2}{ital T}. We also consider an effective potential under the assumption that the effect of magneto- static gluons converges. We show that it is difficult to generate a vacuum expectation value of that order.

  8. Values and depressive symptoms in American Indian youth of the Northern Plains: examining the potential moderating roles of outcome expectancies and perceived community values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mousseau, Alicia C; Scott, Walter D; Estes, David

    2014-03-01

    Very little is known about processes contributing to depressive experiences in American Indian youth. We explored the relationship between value priorities and depressive symptoms among 183 (65% female) American Indian youth in grades 9-12. In addition, two potential moderators of this relationship were examined: value outcome expectations (i.e., whether one expects that values will be realized or not) and perceived community values. We found that American Indian youth who endorsed higher levels of tradition/benevolence values reported fewer depressive symptoms. However, the relationship between endorsing power/materialism values and depressive symptoms depended on the extent to which youth perceived their communities as valuing power/materialism. Finally, value outcome expectancies appeared to relate more strongly to depressive symptoms than did value priorities. Overall, these findings support tribal community efforts to impart tradition/benevolence values to American Indian youth but also emphasize the importance of attending to value outcome expectations and the perceived values of the community in understanding American Indian youth's depressive experiences.

  9. Expectancy of Success, Subjective Task-Value, and Message Frame in the Appraisal of Value-Promoting Messages Made Prior to a High-Stakes Examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Putwain, David W.; Symes, Wendy

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has examined how subjective task-value and expectancy of success influence the appraisal of value-promoting messages used by teachers prior to high-stakes examinations. The aim of this study was to examine whether message-frame (gain or loss-framed messages) also influences the appraisal of value-promoting messages. Two hundred…

  10. Standard values and relationship-specific validity of the Bielefeld Relationship Expectations Questionnaire (BFPE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stöbel-Richter Yve

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Bielefeld Partnership Expectations Questionnaire (BFPE is a tool to assess attachment in the romantic relationships of adults. The attachment styles are operationalized as configuration patterns of scale scores. While convergent validity has already been investigated, discriminant validity is still lacking confirmation. Methods The present sample (n = 1509 is representative for the German population aged 18 to 50. The mean age was 34.6 years. Most of the participants lived in a relationship (77.3 %. Discriminant validity was analyzed using a marital quality questionnaire (PFB, a social support questionnaire (F-Soz-U K-14, and a life satisfaction questionnaire (FLZ. Results All the BFPE scales have a satisfying internal consistency between r = .79 and .86. Those individuals who showed a secure pattern, i.e. increased "Readiness for Self-Disclosure" and "Conscious Need for Care" as well as reduced "Fear of Rejection" experienced their partner as socially supportive, reported higher marital quality in all of its facets, and were more satisfied within the life-domains "family/children" and "relationship/sexuality". Standard values for each scale are presented. Conclusions The BFPE has repeatedly been verified as a short, reliable, and valid instrument applicable to research practice with healthy individuals as well as within clinical contexts.

  11. Modeling the Test-Taking Motivation Construct through Investigation of Psychometric Properties of an Expectancy-Value-Based Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knekta, Eva; Eklöf, Hanna

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of an expectancy-value-based questionnaire measuring five aspects of test-taking motivation (effort, expectancies, importance, interest, and test anxiety). The questionnaire was distributed to a sample of Swedish Grade 9 students taking a low-stakes (n = 1,047) or a high-stakes (n =…

  12. The role of the expected value of individualized care in cost-effectiveness analyses and decision making

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gestel, A. van; Grutters, J.P.C.; Schouten, J.; Webers, C.; Beckers, H.; Joore, M.; Severens, J.

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility and potential role of the expected value of individualized care (EVIC) framework. METHODS: The EVIC quantifies how much benefits are forgone when a treatment decision is based on the best-expected outcomes in the population rather than in the individual patient.

  13. Increases in adult life expectancy in rural South Africa: valuing the scale-up of HIV treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bor, Jacob; Herbst, Abraham J; Newell, Marie-Louise; Bärnighausen, Till

    2013-01-01

    The scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is expected to raise adult life expectancy in populations with high HIV prevalence. Using data from a population cohort of over 101,000 individuals in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, we measured changes in adult life expectancy for 2000–2011. In 2003, the year before ART became available in the public sector health system, adult life expectancy was 49.2 years; by 2011, adult life expectancy had increased to 60.5 years – an 11.3-year gain. Based on standard monetary valuation of life, the survival benefits of ART far outweigh the costs of providing treatment in this community. These gains in adult life expectancy signify the social value of ART and have implications for investment decisions of individuals, governments, and donors. PMID:23430655

  14. Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

    2017-01-01

    There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

  15. Quantum Monte Carlo Method to Estimate the Exact Expectation Values of Non-differential Operators Using Approximate Wavefunctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bosa, Ivana; Rothstein, Stuart M.

    2004-03-01

    Our objective is to develop a Diffusion Monte Carlo (DMC) algorithm to estimate the exact expectation values of non-differential operators, such as polarizabilities and high-order hyperpolarizabilities, for isolated atoms and molecules: . The existing Ground State Distribution DMC (GSD DMC) algorithm which attempts this has a serious bias. On the other hand, the Pure DMC algorithm with minimal stochastic reconfiguration has a reduced bias, but the expectation values are contaminated by Ψ, an inputted, approximate wave function. We modified the latter algorithm to obtain the exact expectation values, while at the same time, eliminating the bias. To compare the efficiency of GSD DMC and the modified Pure DMC algorithms we calculated simple properties of the H atom, such as various functions of coordinates and polarizabilities. Using two non-exact wavefunctions, one of moderate quality and the other very crude, in each case the results are within statistical error of the exact values.

  16. Identifying the role of expectation errors in value glamour return using Fscore

    OpenAIRE

    Ruman, A. (Asif)

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Existing literature documents that a portfolio of value stocks outperforms a portfolio of glamour stocks and market portfolio. Researchers have different opinions regarding, “what derives premium returns from a long short value glamour strategy?” The central objective of this paper is to seek the source of value glamour return effect. We have mix r...

  17. Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

    2017-12-01

    The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

  18. An Expected Value Air Combat Model Simulation Algorithm to Predict Missions Performance in Tactical Air Operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-09-01

    diagram consisting of specific block types in which each block type represents some basic system action. This visual representation permits other peple to...7 MOE Selected (a) Percent of CAS attack sorties for which an expected -. target kill is achieved at or below a specified weapon weight. 2... killed or not. Manual wargames and stochastic or deterministic simulations are examples of this kind of modeling [Ref. 37:p.121. The important aspect

  19. Speeding up Online POMDP planning - unification of observation branches by belief-state compression via expected feature values

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Rens, G

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available on actions and observations, with my method, they branch only on actions. This is achieved by unifying the branches required due to the nondeterminism of observations. The method is based on the expected values of domain features. The new algorithm...

  20. A Multivariate Analysis of Personality, Values and Expectations as Correlates of Career Aspirations of Final Year Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mary E.; Searle, Judy; Creed, Peter A.; Ng, Shu-Kay

    2010-01-01

    This study reports on the career intentions of 179 final year medical students who completed an online survey that included measures of personality, values, professional and lifestyle expectations, and well-being. Logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of preferred medical specialty, practice location and hours of work.…

  1. Relationships among Middle School Students' Expectancy Beliefs, Task Values, and Health-Related Fitness Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Han; Sun, Haichun; Dai, Jun; Griffin, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of the study was to identify gender and body weight differences in Chinese adolescents' perceived expectancy value (EV) motivation in their physical education (PE) class. The study also explored the relationship between EV and adolescents' health-related fitness performances. Method: A group of seventh and eighth graders (N =…

  2. Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

    2017-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

  3. On the interpretation of World Values Survey trust question - global expectations vs. local beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik

    How should we interpret the World Values Survey (WVS) trust question? We conduct an experiment in India - a low trust country, to correlate the WVS trust question with trust decisions in an incentivized Trust Game. Evidence supports findings from one strand of the fractured literature - the WVS t...... study is that survey based methods may not be used to measure contextualized beliefs.......How should we interpret the World Values Survey (WVS) trust question? We conduct an experiment in India - a low trust country, to correlate the WVS trust question with trust decisions in an incentivized Trust Game. Evidence supports findings from one strand of the fractured literature - the WVS...

  4. Directionality of the Associations of High School Expectancy-Value, Aspirations, and Attainment: A Longitudinal Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiesi; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.; Parker, Philip D.; Kaur, Gurvinder

    2015-01-01

    (This study examines the directionality of the associations among cognitive assets (IQ, academic achievement), motivational beliefs (academic self-concept, task values), and educational and occupational aspirations over time from late adolescence (Grade 10) into early adulthood (5 years post high school). Participants were from a nationally…

  5. Economic values and expected effect of selection index for pathogen-specific mastitis under Danish conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, L P; Mark, T; Sørensen, M K

    2010-01-01

    to €570 per mastitis case and were highest for contagious pathogens such as Staph. aureus and coagulase-negative staphylococci and lowest for Strep. dysgalactiae and Strep. uberis. The value for unspecific mastitis was €231 per case. Selection differentials (in €) were estimated for 4 different...

  6. Computing Expected Value of Partial Sample Information from Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Using Linear Regression Metamodeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jalal, Hawre; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D; Kuntz, Karen M

    2015-07-01

    Decision makers often desire both guidance on the most cost-effective interventions given current knowledge and also the value of collecting additional information to improve the decisions made (i.e., from value of information [VOI] analysis). Unfortunately, VOI analysis remains underused due to the conceptual, mathematical, and computational challenges of implementing Bayesian decision-theoretic approaches in models of sufficient complexity for real-world decision making. In this study, we propose a novel practical approach for conducting VOI analysis using a combination of probabilistic sensitivity analysis, linear regression metamodeling, and unit normal loss integral function--a parametric approach to VOI analysis. We adopt a linear approximation and leverage a fundamental assumption of VOI analysis, which requires that all sources of prior uncertainties be accurately specified. We provide examples of the approach and show that the assumptions we make do not induce substantial bias but greatly reduce the computational time needed to perform VOI analysis. Our approach avoids the need to analytically solve or approximate joint Bayesian updating, requires only one set of probabilistic sensitivity analysis simulations, and can be applied in models with correlated input parameters. © The Author(s) 2015.

  7. The decision to engage cognitive control is driven by expected reward-value: neural and behavioral evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Dixon

    Full Text Available Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task and created novel 'free-choice' versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives.

  8. A Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Bound on the Expected Optimal Value of Uncertain Mixed 0-1 Linear Programming

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Guanglin; Burer, Samuel

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies the expected optimal value of a mixed 0-1 programming problem with uncertain objective coefficients following a joint distribution. We assume that the true distribution is not known exactly, but a set of independent samples can be observed. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct an ambiguity set centered at the empirical distribution from the observed samples and containing the true distribution with a high statistical guarantee. The problem of interest is to investigat...

  9. Quantum expectation values of D-dimensional Rydberg hydrogenic states by use of Laguerre and Gegenbauer asymptotics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aptekarev, A I [Keldysh Institute of Applied Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences and Moscow State University Lomonosov (Russian Federation); Dehesa, J S; Martinez-Finkelshtein, A; Yanez, R J [Instituto Carlos I de Fisica Teorica y Computacional, Universidad de Granada, 18071-Granada (Spain)], E-mail: aptekaa@keldysh.ru, E-mail: dehesa@ugr.es, E-mail: andrei@ual.es, E-mail: ryanez@ugr.es

    2010-04-09

    The radial position (, {alpha} element of R) and momentum ((p{sup {beta}}), {beta} in ( - 1, 3)) expectation values of the D-dimensional Rydberg hydrogenic states (i.e. states where the electron has a large hyperquantum number n) are rigorously determined by means of powerful tools of the modern approximation theory relative to the asymptotics of the varying orthogonal Laguerre and Gegenbauer polynomials which control the corresponding wavefunctions in position and momentum spaces.

  10. Using expectancy-value theory to explore aspects of motivation and engagement in inquiry-based learning in primary mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

    2017-03-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and Wigfield 2002) provides a framework through which children's beliefs about their mathematical competency and their expectation of success are able to be examined and interpreted, alongside students' perceptions of task value. In this paper, Eccles and Wigfield's expectancy-value model has been adopted as a lens to examine a complete unit of mathematical inquiry as undertaken with a class of 9-10-year-old students. Data were sourced from a unit (˜10 lessons) based on geometry and geometrical reasoning. The units were videotaped in full, transcribed, and along with field notes and student work samples, subjected to theoretical coding using the dimensions of Eccles and Wigfield's model. The findings provide insight into aspects of IBL that may impact student motivation and engagement. The study is limited to a single unit; however, the results provide a depth of insight into IBL in practice while identifying features of IBL that may be instrumental in bringing about increased motivation and engagement of students in mathematics. Identifying potentially motivating aspects of IBL enable these to be integrated and more closely studied in IBL practises.

  11. Tinto's Theoretical Perspective and Expectancy-Value Paradigm: A confrontation to explain freshmen's academic achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandrine Neuville

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available For decades, success in postsecondary education has preoccupied psychological and educational researchers. In this respect, Tinto's student integration model (1982, 1997 is one of the most frequently cited models. Tinto proposed that students' background characteristics, initial intentions and aspirations towards college influence their academic and social integration, which in turn affect their persistence. Unfortunately, although this model is an integrative one, it does not take motivational variables such as students' self-efficacy (Bandura, 1997; Bong & Skaalvik, 2003 and students' subjective value of academic tasks (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002; Neuville, 2004 into account although their impact on learning has been widely demonstrated (Robbins, Lauver, Le, Davis, & Langley, 2004. The purpose of this study, conducted with 2637 first-year university students from all the Bachelor's degree programs of a Belgian university, is to compare, through structural equation models, the explanatory power of these two research traditions (students' integration, on the one hand, and a motivational paradigm, on the other hand in predicting students' academic performance.

  12. Savanna elephant numbers are only a quarter of their expected values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robson, Ashley S; Trimble, Morgan J; Purdon, Andrew; Young-Overton, Kim D; Pimm, Stuart L; van Aarde, Rudi J

    2017-01-01

    Savannas once constituted the range of many species that human encroachment has now reduced to a fraction of their former distribution. Many survive only in protected areas. Poaching reduces the savanna elephant, even where protected, likely to the detriment of savanna ecosystems. While resources go into estimating elephant populations, an ecological benchmark by which to assess counts is lacking. Knowing how many elephants there are and how many poachers kill is important, but on their own, such data lack context. We collated savanna elephant count data from 73 protected areas across the continent estimated to hold ~50% of Africa's elephants and extracted densities from 18 broadly stable population time series. We modeled these densities using primary productivity, water availability, and an index of poaching as predictors. We then used the model to predict stable densities given current conditions and poaching for all 73 populations. Next, to generate ecological benchmarks, we predicted such densities for a scenario of zero poaching. Where historical data are available, they corroborate or exceed benchmarks. According to recent counts, collectively, the 73 savanna elephant populations are at 75% of the size predicted based on current conditions and poaching levels. However, populations are at poaching (~967,000)-a total deficit of ~730,000 elephants. Populations in 30% of the 73 protected areas were <5% of their benchmarks, and the median current density as a percentage of ecological benchmark across protected areas was just 13%. The ecological context provided by these benchmark values, in conjunction with ongoing census projects, allow efficient targeting of conservation efforts.

  13. Savanna elephant numbers are only a quarter of their expected values.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley S Robson

    Full Text Available Savannas once constituted the range of many species that human encroachment has now reduced to a fraction of their former distribution. Many survive only in protected areas. Poaching reduces the savanna elephant, even where protected, likely to the detriment of savanna ecosystems. While resources go into estimating elephant populations, an ecological benchmark by which to assess counts is lacking. Knowing how many elephants there are and how many poachers kill is important, but on their own, such data lack context. We collated savanna elephant count data from 73 protected areas across the continent estimated to hold ~50% of Africa's elephants and extracted densities from 18 broadly stable population time series. We modeled these densities using primary productivity, water availability, and an index of poaching as predictors. We then used the model to predict stable densities given current conditions and poaching for all 73 populations. Next, to generate ecological benchmarks, we predicted such densities for a scenario of zero poaching. Where historical data are available, they corroborate or exceed benchmarks. According to recent counts, collectively, the 73 savanna elephant populations are at 75% of the size predicted based on current conditions and poaching levels. However, populations are at <25% of ecological benchmarks given a scenario of zero poaching (~967,000-a total deficit of ~730,000 elephants. Populations in 30% of the 73 protected areas were <5% of their benchmarks, and the median current density as a percentage of ecological benchmark across protected areas was just 13%. The ecological context provided by these benchmark values, in conjunction with ongoing census projects, allow efficient targeting of conservation efforts.

  14. Knowing your own mate value: sex-specific personality effects on the accuracy of expected mate choices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Back, Mitja D; Penke, Lars; Schmukle, Stefan C; Asendorpf, Jens B

    2011-08-01

    Knowing one's mate value (mate-value accuracy) is an important element in reproductive success. We investigated within- and between-sex differences in this ability in a real-life speed-dating event. A total of 190 men and 192 women filled out a personality questionnaire and participated in speed-dating sessions. Immediately after each date, participants recorded who they would choose as mates and who they expected would choose them. In line with evolutionarily informed hypotheses, results indicated that sociosexually unrestricted men and more agreeable women showed greater mate-value accuracy than sociosexually restricted men and less agreeable women, respectively. These results have important implications for understanding mating behavior and perhaps the origin of sex differences in personality.

  15. Benchmark Calculation of Radial Expectation Value \\varvec{< r^{-2} \\rangle } for Confined Hydrogen-Like Atoms and Isotropic Harmonic Oscillators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Rong Mei; Zan, Li Rong; Jiao, Li Guang; Ho, Yew Kam

    2017-09-01

    Spatially confined atoms have been extensively investigated to model atomic systems in extreme pressures. For the simplest hydrogen-like atoms and isotropic harmonic oscillators, numerous physical quantities have been established with very high accuracy. However, the expectation value of which is of practical importance in many applications has significant discrepancies among calculations by different methods. In this work we employed the basis expansion method with cut-off Slater-type orbitals to investigate these two confined systems. Accurate values for several low-lying bound states were obtained by carefully examining the convergence with respect to the size of basis. A scaling law for was derived and it is used to verify the accuracy of numerical results. Comparison with other calculations show that the present results establish benchmark values for this quantity, which may be useful in future studies.

  16. Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Matthew H.; Marulis, Loren M.; Grammer, Jennie K.; Morrison, Frederick J.; Gehring, William J.

    2016-01-01

    Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The present study explores motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two ERP components, the error-related negativity (ERN) and error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 four- to six-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, while stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. PMID:27898304

  17. Learned helplessness or expectancy-value? A psychological model for describing the experiences of different categories of unemployed people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Rodríguez, Y

    1997-06-01

    Various studies have explored the relationships between unemployment and expectation of success, commitment to work, motivation, causal attributions, self-esteem and depression. A model is proposed that assumes the relationships between these variables are moderated by (a) whether or not the unemployed individual is seeking a first job and (b) age. It is proposed that for the unemployed who are seeking their first job (seekers) the relationships among these variables will be consistent with expectancy-value theory, but for those who have had a previous job (losers), the relationships will be more consistent with learned helplessness theory. It is further assumed that within this latter group the young losers will experience "universal helplessness" whereas the adult losers will experience "personal helplessness".

  18. Contribution from the interaction Hamiltonian to the expectation value of particle number with the non-equilibrium quantum field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hotta, Ryuuichi; Morozumi, Takuya; Takata, Hiroyuki [Graduate School of Science, Hiroshima University, Higashi-Hiroshima 739-8526 (Japan); Tomsk state Pedagogical University Tomsk 634041 (Russian Federation)

    2012-07-27

    We develop the method analyzing particle number non-conserving phenomena with non-equilibrium quantum field-theory. In this study, we consider a CP violating model with interaction Hamiltonian that breaks particle number conservation. To derive the quantum Boltzmann equation for the particle number, we solve Schwinger-Dyson equation, which are obtained from two particle irreducible closed-time-path (2PI CTP) effective action. In this calculation, we show the contribution from interaction Hamiltonian to the time evolution of expectation value of particle number.

  19. Longterm Performance Trends Analysis and ManagingExpectation for Active Value1 (Case Study: PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Tbk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perdana Wahyu Santosa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This research used financial ratio and managing expectations for active value about performance of PT IndocementTunggal Prakarsa, Tbk (INTP as one of largest cement company with a strong brand image at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. Unlike traditional corporate-performance metric, this study use growth value of matrix. INTP is well placed to meet Indonesia’s growing per capita of cement consumption. The financial data sources for this research are the audited annual reports of INTP2002-2008. The analysis focused on compounds annual growth rate (CAGR,  profitability, total assets turnover, cost of capital, market value added & market risk and market perception map. This research also used growth value matrix to analysis the market perception of INTP in 2008 that combined current performance with future growth opportunity. The result of market perception mapping for 2008-2009 shows that INTP was just on market average of current performance index but the future growth opportunity was above the market average level. The conclusion explains that INTP has very good long-term fundamental performance’s trend and the company is indicated has strong capabilityto be excellent value manager in the future.

  20. Expectation values of r sup q between Dirac and quasirelativistic wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Kwato-Njock, K

    2002-01-01

    A search is conducted for the determination of expectation values of r sup q between Dirac and quasirelativistic radial wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation. The phenomenological and supersymmetry-inspired quantum-defect models which have proven so far to yield accurate results are used. The recursive structure of formulae derived on the basis of the hypervirial theorem enables us to develop explicit relations for arbitrary values of q. Detailed numerical calculations concerning alkali-metal-like ions of the Li-, Na- and Cu-iso electronic sequences confirm the superiority of supersymmetry-based quantum-defect theory over quantum-defect orbital and exact orbital quantum number approximations. It is also shown that relativistic rather than quasirelativistic treatment may be used for consistent inclusion of relativistic effects.

  1. Estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information Using the Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis Sample: A Fast, Nonparametric Regression-Based Method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strong, Mark; Oakley, Jeremy E; Brennan, Alan; Breeze, Penny

    2015-07-01

    Health economic decision-analytic models are used to estimate the expected net benefits of competing decision options. The true values of the input parameters of such models are rarely known with certainty, and it is often useful to quantify the value to the decision maker of reducing uncertainty through collecting new data. In the context of a particular decision problem, the value of a proposed research design can be quantified by its expected value of sample information (EVSI). EVSI is commonly estimated via a 2-level Monte Carlo procedure in which plausible data sets are generated in an outer loop, and then, conditional on these, the parameters of the decision model are updated via Bayes rule and sampled in an inner loop. At each iteration of the inner loop, the decision model is evaluated. This is computationally demanding and may be difficult if the posterior distribution of the model parameters conditional on sampled data is hard to sample from. We describe a fast nonparametric regression-based method for estimating per-patient EVSI that requires only the probabilistic sensitivity analysis sample (i.e., the set of samples drawn from the joint distribution of the parameters and the corresponding net benefits). The method avoids the need to sample from the posterior distributions of the parameters and avoids the need to rerun the model. The only requirement is that sample data sets can be generated. The method is applicable with a model of any complexity and with any specification of model parameter distribution. We demonstrate in a case study the superior efficiency of the regression method over the 2-level Monte Carlo method. © The Author(s) 2015.

  2. Motivational Pathways to STEM Career Choices: Using Expectancy-Value Perspective to Understand Individual and Gender Differences in STEM Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming-Te; Degol, Jessica

    2013-01-01

    The United States has made a significant effort and investment in STEM education, yet the size and the composition of the STEM workforce continues to fail to meet demand. It is thus important to understand the barriers and factors that influence individual educational and career choices. In this article, we conduct a literature review of the current knowledge surrounding individual and gender differences in STEM educational and career choices, using expectancy-value theory as a guiding framework. The overarching goal of this paper is to provide both a well-defined theoretical framework and complementary empirical evidence for linking specific sociocultural, contextual, biological, and psychological factors to individual and gender differences in STEM interests and choices. Knowledge gained through this review will eventually guide future research and interventions designed to enhance individual motivation and capacity to pursue STEM careers, particularly for females who are interested in STEM but may be constrained by misinformation or stereotypes. PMID:24298199

  3. Are health journalists' practices tied to their perceptions of audience? An attribution and expectancy-value approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinnant, Amanda; Len-Ríos, María E; Oh, Hyun Jee

    2012-01-01

    This study examines a national survey of U.S. health journalists (N = 774) to ascertain how journalists' perceptions of audience use of health news shapes their journalistic practices. We establish a framework through attribution theory and expectancy-value theory for how journalists choose to fulfill their roles as providers of health information. Using these theoretical lenses, we look at whether health journalists' audience orientation is associated with their use of accessibility-oriented or credibility-focused practices. Our findings show that, overall, journalists believe readers are individually responsible for their health outcomes and that journalists focus on providing accessibility-oriented information when they feel their audience's ability to understand information may be compromised. Journalists' beliefs about audience behavior are associated with their attitudes toward communication practices.

  4. Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Vincent; Tran, Hung

    2016-01-01

    Over-the-counter medicines (OTC) are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. This study aimed to examine customers' key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale) examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%). Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%), trust in the products (73%), and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95%) were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or existing levels of stress and health.

  5. Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    Background: Over-the-counter medicines (OTC) are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. Objective: This study aimed to examine customers’ key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Methods: Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale) examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. Results: A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%). Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%), trust in the products (73%), and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95%) were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. Conclusions: High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or existing

  6. Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan V

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Over-the-counter medicines (OTC are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. Objective: This study aimed to examine customers’ key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Methods: Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. Results: A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%. Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%, trust in the products (73%, and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95% were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. Conclusions: High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or

  7. Negative emotional appraisal selectively disrupts retrieval of expected outcome values required for goal-directed instrumental choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pritchard, Tanya L; Weidemann, Gabrielle; Hogarth, Lee

    2017-09-14

    Stress induction reduces people's ability to modify their instrumental choices following changes in the value of outcomes, but the mechanisms underpinning this effect have not been specified because previous studies have lacked crucial control conditions. To address this, the current study had participants learn two instrumental responses for food and water, respectively, before water was devalued by specific satiety. Choice between these two responses was then measured in extinction, reacquisition and Pavlovian to instrumental transfer (PIT) tests. Concurrently during these tests, a negative emotional appraisal group evaluated aversive images (stress induction), whereas a control group evaluated neutral images, at the same time as choosing between the two instrumental responses. Negative emotional appraisal abolished the impact of water devaluation on instrumental choice in the extinction test, but did not affect instrumental choice in the reacquisition or PIT tests. These findings suggest that negative emotional appraisal selectively impaired participants' ability to retrieve the expected value of outcomes required to make goal-directed instrumental choices in the extinction test, and that this effect was not due to task disengagement, nullification of the devaluation treatment or impaired knowledge of response-outcome relationships.

  8. Charting the Eccles' expectancy-value model from mothers' beliefs in childhood to youths' activities in adolescence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, Sandra D; Fredricks, Jennifer A; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

    2012-07-01

    The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This investigation focused on testing this model with mothers in sports, music, math, and reading over a 12-year period. Data were drawn from mother, youth, and teacher questionnaires collected as part of Childhood and Beyond Study (92% European American; N = 723). Mothers' beliefs in sports, music, and math positively predicted their behaviors in these areas 1 year later, which predicted youths' self-concepts of ability and values (i.e., their motivational beliefs) in these domains 1 year later. Adolescents' motivational beliefs predicted time spent in organized sport activities, playing music, and reading after school measured 4 years later as well as the number of math courses taken in high school. Furthermore, except in reading, mothers' behaviors mediated the relations between mothers' and youths' beliefs, and youths' beliefs mediated the relations between mothers' behaviors and youths' behaviors. Although there were mean-level differences in several indicators based on child gender, in most cases the relations among these indicators did not significantly vary by child gender. This study highlights the processes by which mothers' beliefs during their children's childhood can predict children's activities in adolescence.

  9. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  10. Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

    Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

  11. Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

    2017-08-01

    Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Xu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating effect of listening metacognitive awareness on the relationship between expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score. According to the results, test takers’ listening scores can be predicted by expectancy, interest, and listening anxiety significantly. The relationship between expectancy, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score was mediated by listening metacognitive awareness. The findings have implications for test takers to improve their test taking motivation and listening metacognitive awareness, as well as for L2 teachers to intervene in L2 listening classrooms.

  13. Male Student-Athlete Perceptions of University Academic Staff Expectations: A Qualitative Analysis of Perceptions, Value and Academic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeck, Teresa A.

    2010-01-01

    Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 male collegiate student-athletes in a revenue-generating sport in an effort to better inform current academic support practitioners how to best serve this population. The inquiry focused on student-athlete perceptions of two areas: (1) perceptions regarding the expectations academic personnel have…

  14. Shared Expectations: Identifying Similarities And Differences Between Student And Faculty Teaching Values Based On Student Evaluation Of Faculty Classroom Performance

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory P. Trudeau; Kathleen J. Barnes

    2011-01-01

    New faculty have an inordinate amount of resources, financial and other, invested in their doctoral degrees. Yet, the first few years can be overwhelming adapting to the plethora of academic life demands. One area of concern that all new faculty deal with is attempting to decode the various stakeholder groups (i.e., students, colleagues, personnel committee, administration, community and industry members, respective profession colleagues) expectations of the new faculty member and reconciling...

  15. The habenulo-raphe serotonergic circuit encodes an aversive expectation value essential for adaptive active avoidance of danger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amo, Ryunosuke; Fredes, Felipe; Kinoshita, Masae; Aoki, Ryo; Aizawa, Hidenori; Agetsuma, Masakazu; Aoki, Tazu; Shiraki, Toshiyuki; Kakinuma, Hisaya; Matsuda, Masaru; Yamazaki, Masako; Takahoko, Mikako; Tsuboi, Takashi; Higashijima, Shin-ichi; Miyasaka, Nobuhiko; Koide, Tetsuya; Yabuki, Yoichi; Yoshihara, Yoshihiro; Fukai, Tomoki; Okamoto, Hitoshi

    2014-12-03

    Anticipation of danger at first elicits panic in animals, but later it helps them to avoid the real threat adaptively. In zebrafish, as fish experience more and more danger, neurons in the ventral habenula (vHb) showed tonic increase in the activity to the presented cue and activated serotonergic neurons in the median raphe (MR). This neuronal activity could represent the expectation of a dangerous outcome and be used for comparison with a real outcome when the fish is learning how to escape from a dangerous to a safer environment. Indeed, inhibiting synaptic transmission from vHb to MR impaired adaptive avoidance learning, while panic behavior induced by classical fear conditioning remained intact. Furthermore, artificially triggering this negative outcome expectation signal by optogenetic stimulation of vHb neurons evoked place avoidance behavior. Thus, vHb-MR circuit is essential for representing the level of expected danger and behavioral programming to adaptively avoid potential hazard. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Identifying Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs: A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Analyzing Middle School Students' Science Self-Perceptions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Julia Phelan; Marsha Ing; Karen Nylund-Gibson; Richard S Brown

    2017-01-01

    ... to encourage and support students' science aspirations. This study uses latent class analysis to describe underlying differences in ability beliefs, task values and links these science-self-perceptions to interest in science...

  17. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  18. Information Science Instruction and Changes in Girls' and Boy's Expectancy and Value Beliefs: In Search of Gender-Equitable Pedagogical Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vekiri, Ioanna

    2013-01-01

    In this study, which was situated in the context of information science instruction, data were collected twice using student self-reports to examine the effects of pedagogical practices on changes in boys' and girls' expectancy and value beliefs about computing. Participants were 326 7th-grade students, enrolled in three middle schools that were…

  19. Understanding the Relationship between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svoboda, Ryan C.; Rozek, Christopher S.; Hyde, Janet S.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Destin, Mesmin

    2016-01-01

    High school students from lower-socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science…

  20. Trial-by-trial changes in a priori informational value of external cues and subjective expectancies in human auditory attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arjona, Antonio; Gómez, Carlos M

    2011-01-01

    Preparatory activity based on a priori probabilities generated in previous trials and subjective expectancies would produce an attentional bias. However, preparation can be correct (valid) or incorrect (invalid) depending on the actual target stimulus. The alternation effect refers to the subjective expectancy that a target will not be repeated in the same position, causing RTs to increase if the target location is repeated. The present experiment, using the Posner's central cue paradigm, tries to demonstrate that not only the credibility of the cue, but also the expectancy about the next position of the target are changed in a trial by trial basis. Sequences of trials were analyzed. The results indicated an increase in RT benefits when sequences of two and three valid trials occurred. The analysis of errors indicated an increase in anticipatory behavior which grows as the number of valid trials is increased. On the other hand, there was also an RT benefit when a trial was preceded by trials in which the position of the target changed with respect to the current trial (alternation effect). Sequences of two alternations or two repetitions were faster than sequences of trials in which a pattern of repetition or alternation is broken. Taken together, these results suggest that in Posner's central cue paradigm, and with regard to the anticipatory activity, the credibility of the external cue and of the endogenously anticipated patterns of target location are constantly updated. The results suggest that Bayesian rules are operating in the generation of anticipatory activity as a function of the previous trial's outcome, but also on biases or prior beliefs like the "gambler fallacy".

  1. Toward a Shift in Expectations and Values: What We've Learned from Collaborative Action Research in Northern Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Shelly Stagg; Horton, Laura; Restoule, Jean Paul

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we propose that collaborative action research values, goals and practices have much in common with guiding principles for conducting research with educators and community members in First Nation, Inuit and Metis communities, as outlined in the Task Force on Aboriginal Languages and Cultures on Aboriginal Languages and Cultures'…

  2. Academic Procrastination in Linking Motivation and Achievement-Related Behaviours: A Perspective of Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Fan, Weihua

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationships among college students' achievement motivation (subjective task value and academic self-efficacy), academic procrastination (delay and missing deadlines) and achievement-related behaviours (effort and persistence). More specifically, the study investigated the mediating role…

  3. Face Value: The Effect of Ethnicity and Gender on Student Expectations of English Language Instructors in the UAE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nausheen Pasha Zaidi

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Hiring practices of English language teachers often reflect stereotypical perceptions of “nativeness” as an indicator of teacher effectiveness. In this respect, the present study explores the impact of teacher’s ethnicity, as well as student and teacher gender, on student expectations of English language instructors in the United Arab Emirates (UAE. A total of 337 students from three universities in the UAE participated in the study. The students were each given a photograph of a White, Black and South Asian individual unknown to them and were asked to rate the individual in terms of instructor effectiveness for a hypothetical English language course. The results revealed that there were no main or interaction effects for teacher ethnicity or student/teacher gender. However, there was a significant difference in students’ perceptions of the use of precise English, based on instructor ethnicity, with White instructors being rated higher than Black or South Asian instructors.

  4. Understanding the Relationship Between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking Through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan C. Svoboda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available High school students from lower–socioeconomic status (SES backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science course-taking relationship. This was done by gathering reports from students and their parents about their expectations, values, and future identities for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM topics beginning in middle school through age 20. Results showed that parental education predicted mathematics and science course taking in high school and college, and this relationship was partially mediated by students’ and parents’ future identity and motivational beliefs concerning mathematics and science. These findings suggest that psychological interventions may be useful for reducing social class gaps in STEM course taking, which has critical implications for the types of opportunities and careers available to students.

  5. Racial/ethnic differences in the influence of cultural values, alcohol resistance self-efficacy, and alcohol expectancies on risk for alcohol initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Regina A; Miles, Jeremy N V; Tucker, Joan S; Zhou, Annie J; D'Amico, Elizabeth J

    2012-09-01

    Prior research has reported racial/ethnic differences in the early initiation of alcohol use, suggesting that cultural values that are central to specific racial/ethnic groups may be influencing these differences. This 1-year longitudinal study examines associations between two types of cultural values, parental respect (honor for one's parents) and familism (connectedness with family), both measured at baseline, and subsequent alcohol initiation in a sample of 6,054 (approximately 49% male, 57% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 18% non-Hispanic White, and 4% non-Hispanic Black) middle school students in Southern California. We tested whether the associations of cultural values with alcohol initiation could be explained by baseline measures of alcohol resistance self-efficacy (RSE) and alcohol expectancies. We also explored whether these pathways differed by race/ethnicity. In the full sample, adolescents with higher parental respect were less likely to initiate alcohol use, an association that was partially explained by higher RSE and fewer positive alcohol expectancies. Familism was not significantly related to alcohol initiation. Comparing racial/ethnic groups, higher parental respect was protective against alcohol initiation for Whites and Asians, but not Blacks or Hispanics. There were no racial/ethnic differences in the association between familism and alcohol initiation. Results suggest that cultural values are important factors in the decision to use alcohol and these values appear to operate in part, by influencing alcohol positive expectancies and RSE. Interventions that focus on maintaining strong cultural values and building strong bonds between adolescents and their families may help reduce the risk of alcohol initiation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  6. What Kind of Justice Today? Expectations Of ‘Good Justice’, Convergences And Divergences Between Managerial And Judicial Actors And How They Fit Within Management-Oriented Values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yves Emery

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This research aims toward a better understanding of the organizational culture (s of the Judiciary in Switzerland by analysing what “good justice” means nowadays in this country. It seeks to clarify whether and to which extent the views of a “good justice” of judicial actors (judges without managerial experience and managerial actors (court managers are similar, and the possible managerial implications that may result from it. As judges are at the heart of the judicial organization and exert a strong influence on other groups of actors (Sullivan, Warren et al. 1994, the congruence of their expectations with those of court managers will be at the centre of the analysis. Additionally, referring to the conceptual worlds of Boltanski and Thévenot (1991, we analyse how close these expectations are to management-oriented values. We found that almost half of expectations are common to the two groups examined and the main quoted ones are well compatible to NPM precepts. On the other hand those expectations shared exclusively by judges relate to the human side of justice, whereas those specific to court managers focus on the way justice functions.

  7. Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

    2017-11-01

    The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

  8. Associations among pain, disability and psychosocial factors and the predictive value of expectations on returning to work in patients who undergo lumbar disc surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Ann-Christin; Öhrvik, John; Söderlund, Anne

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the associations among pain, disability and psychosocial factors preoperatively as well as 3 and 24 months later for patients who undergo first time discectomy and to analyse the predictive value of psychosocial factors on the outcome 24 months after surgery. Fifty-nine patients, 41 % women, with a mean age of 40 years and without comorbidities were included, of whom 56 responded to the 24-month follow-up; at that point, they were divided into patients with complaints (C, n = 36) and patients without complaints (NC, n = 20). Correlations among the pain intensity, disability and psychosocial factors were analysed preoperatively, 3 and 24 months after discectomy, and regression analyses of psychosocial factors on the outcome at 24 months were performed. Psychosocial variables were weakly correlated with the pain intensity and disability preoperatively. High expectations on the return to work were predictive of both pain intensity (β = 8.0, p = 0.03) and disability (β = 9.1, p psychosocial variables and outcome variables were strengthened at the 3-month follow-up in the C group, and this association remained 24 months after surgery. Fear of movement was most strongly correlated with leg pain intensity (r (s) 0.64, p disability (r (s) 0.78, p < 0.001). Having high expectations on the return to work after surgery was the strongest predictor for a favourable outcome. Therefore, low preoperative expectations on return to work convey an important prognostic signal.

  9. Exploring traditional end-of-life beliefs, values, expectations, and practices among Chinese women living in England: Informing culturally safe care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Mei Lan; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Sixsmith, Judith; Wong, Louise Yuen Ming; Callender, Matthew

    2015-10-01

    This study explores the end-of-life (EoL) beliefs, values, practices, and expectations of a select group of harder-to-reach Chinese women living in England. A cultural safety approach was undertaken to interpret 11 in-depth, semistructured interviews. Interviews were conducted in Mandarin and Cantonese. Transcripts were translated and back-translated by two researchers. Findings were analyzed using the technical analytical principles of grounded theory. The key themes generated from our analysis include: acculturation; differential beliefs and norms in providing care: family versus health services; language and communication; Eastern versus Western spiritual practices and beliefs; and dying, death, and the hereafter. End-of-life discussions can be part of an arduous, painful, and uncomfortable process, particularly for migrants living on the margins of society in a new cultural setting. For some Chinese people living in the United Kingdom, end-of-life care requires attention to acculturation, particularly Western versus Eastern beliefs on religion, spirituality, burial practices, and provision of care, and the availability of culturally specific care, all of which encompass issues related to gender. Stories of a purposive sample of Chinese women were viewed through a cultural safety lens to gain a deeper understanding of how social and cultural norms and expectations, in addition to the pressures of acculturation, impact gendered roles and responsibilities. The analysis revealed variations between/within Eastern and Western culture that resulted in pronounced, and oftentimes gendered, differences in EoL care expectations.

  10. Vacuum expectation values of the current density and energy-momentum tensor for a charged scalar field in curved spacetime with toroidally compactified spatial dimensions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saharian, Aram; Kotanjyan, Anna; Sargsyan, Hayk; Simonyan, David

    2016-07-01

    The models with compact spatial dimensions appear in a number of fundamental physical theories. In particular, the idea of compactified dimensions has been extensively used in supergravity and superstring theories. In quantum field theory, the modification of the vacuum fluctuations spectrum by the periodicity conditions imposed on the field operator along compact dimensions leads to a number of interesting physical effects. A well known example of this kind, demonstrating the close relation between quantum phenomena and global geometry, is the topological Casimir effect. In models with extra compact dimensions, the Casimir energy creates a nontrivial potential for the compactification radius. This can serve as a stabilization mechanism for moduli fields and for the effective gauge couplings. The Casimir effect has also been considered as a possible origin for the dark energy in Kaluza-Klein-type and braneworld models. In the resent presentation we investigate the effects of the gravity and topology on the local properties of the quantum vacuum for a charged scalar field in the presence of a classical gauge field. Vacuum expectation value of the energy-momentum tensor and current density are investigated for a charged scalar field in dS spacetime with toroidally compact spatial dimensions in the presence of a classical constant gauge field. Due to the nontrivial topology, the latter gives rise to Aharonov-Bohm-like effect on the vacuum characteristics. The vacuum current density, energy density and stresses are even periodic functions of the magnetic flux enclosed by compact dimensions. For small values of the comoving lengths of compact dimensions, compared with the dS curvature radius, the effects of gravity on the topological contributions are small and the expectation values are expressed in terms of the corresponding quantities in the Minkowski bulk by the standard conformal relation. For large values of the comoving lengths, depending on the field mass, two

  11. Are There Scenarios When the Use of Non-Placebo-Control Groups in Experimental Trial Designs Increase Expected Value to Society?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uyei, Jennifer; Braithwaite, R Scott

    2016-01-01

    Despite the benefits of the placebo-controlled trial design, it is limited by its inability to quantify total benefits and harms. Such trials, for example, are not designed to detect an intervention's placebo or nocebo effects, which if detected could alter the benefit-to-harm balance and change a decision to adopt or reject an intervention. In this article, we explore scenarios in which alternative experimental trial designs, which differ in the type of control used, influence expected value across a range of pretest assumptions and study sample sizes. We developed a decision model to compare 3 trial designs and their implications for decision making: 2-arm placebo-controlled trial ("placebo-control"), 2-arm intervention v. do nothing trial ("null-control"), and an innovative 3-arm trial design: intervention v. do nothing v. placebo trial ("novel design"). Four scenarios were explored regarding particular attributes of a hypothetical intervention: 1) all benefits and no harm, 2) no biological effect, 3) only biological effects, and 4) surreptitious harm (no biological benefit or nocebo effect). Scenario 1: When sample sizes were very small, the null-control was preferred, but as sample sizes increased, expected value of all 3 designs converged. Scenario 2: The null-control was preferred regardless of sample size when the ratio of placebo to nocebo effect was >1; otherwise, the placebo-control was preferred. Scenario 3: When sample size was very small, the placebo-control was preferred when benefits outweighed harms, but the novel design was preferred when harms outweighed benefits. Scenario 4: The placebo-control was preferred when harms outweighed placebo benefits; otherwise, preference went to the null-control. Scenarios are hypothetical, study designs have not been tested in a real-world setting, blinding is not possible in all designs, and some may argue the novel design poses ethical concerns. We identified scenarios in which alternative experimental study

  12. Dependence of the minimal clinically important improvement on the baseline value is a consequence of floor and ceiling effects and not different expectations by patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Michael M; Guthrie, Lori C; Alba, Maria

    2014-06-01

    Estimates of minimal clinically important improvements (MCIIs) are larger among patients with higher values at baseline, suggesting that these patients require larger changes to appreciate improvements. We examined if baseline dependency of MCIIs was associated with specific patients across three measures, or was owing to floor and ceiling effects. We prospectively examined 250 outpatients with active rheumatoid arthritis (RA). We used an anchor-based approach to estimate MCIIs for three measures of RA activity (patient global assessment, swollen joint count, and walking time). We examined if the same patients constituted the baseline subgroups with high MCIIs across measures. The MCIIs were greater for those with higher baseline values of all three measures. At the ceiling, there was little opportunity to improve, and judgments were unrelated to measured changes. At midrange, improvements were balanced by worsenings, including some judged as improvements. At the floor, improvements were not similarly balanced. Patients in subgroups with high MCII for patient global assessment were not also predominantly in subgroups with high MCII for the swollen joint count or walking time, and vice versa. Variation in MCII by baseline values is because of floor and ceiling effects rather than expectations of particular patients. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  14. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  15. Resampling-Based Empirical Bayes Multiple Testing Procedures for Controlling Generalized Tail Probability and Expected Value Error Rates: Focus on the False Discovery Rate and Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudoit, Sandrine; Gilbert, Houston N.; van der Laan, Mark J.

    2014-01-01

    Summary This article proposes resampling-based empirical Bayes multiple testing procedures for controlling a broad class of Type I error rates, defined as generalized tail probability (gTP) error rates, gTP(q, g) = Pr(g(Vn, Sn) > q), and generalized expected value (gEV) error rates, gEV(g) = E[g(Vn, Sn)], for arbitrary functions g(Vn, Sn) of the numbers of false positives Vn and true positives Sn. Of particular interest are error rates based on the proportion g(Vn, Sn) = Vn/(Vn + Sn) of Type I errors among the rejected hypotheses, such as the false discovery rate (FDR), FDR = E[Vn/(Vn + Sn)]. The proposed procedures offer several advantages over existing methods. They provide Type I error control for general data generating distributions, with arbitrary dependence structures among variables. Gains in power are achieved by deriving rejection regions based on guessed sets of true null hypotheses and null test statistics randomly sampled from joint distributions that account for the dependence structure of the data. The Type I error and power properties of an FDR-controlling version of the resampling-based empirical Bayes approach are investigated and compared to those of widely-used FDR-controlling linear step-up procedures in a simulation study. The Type I error and power trade-off achieved by the empirical Bayes procedures under a variety of testing scenarios allows this approach to be competitive with or outperform the Storey and Tibshirani (2003) linear step-up procedure, as an alternative to the classical Benjamini and Hochberg (1995) procedure. PMID:18932138

  16. Prognostic value of the six-minute walk test in end-stage renal disease life expectancy: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro de Moraes Kohl

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The six-minute walk test has been widely used to evaluate functional capacity and predict mortality in several populations. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the six-minute walk test for the life expectancy of end-stage renal disease patients. METHODS: Patients over 18 years old who underwent hemodialysis for at least six months were included. Patients with hemodynamic instability, smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, physical incapacity and acute myocardial stroke in the preceding three months were excluded. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients (54% males; 36+11 years old were followed for 144 months. The distance walked in the six-minute walk test was a survival predictor for end-stage renal disease patients. In the multivariate analysis, for each 100 meters walked with a 100-meter increment, the hazard ratio was 0.53, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.74. There was a positive correlation between the distance walked in the six-minute walk test and peak oxygen consumption (r = 0.508. In the multivariate analysis, each year of dialysis treatment represented a 10% increase in death probability; in the severity index analysis, each point on the scale represented an 11% increase in the death risk. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that survival increased approximately 5% for every 100 meters walked in the six-minute walk test, demonstrating that the test is a viable option for evaluating the functional capacity in patients with end-stage renal disease.

  17. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...... strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...

  18. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...

  19. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over......' expectation formation. Chapters IV and V constitute the methodological contribution of the dissertation. Chapter IV develops a general method for decomposing total effects into its direct and indirect counterparts in nonlinear probability models such as the logistic response model. The method forms a solution...

  20. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    In this dissertation I examine the relationship between subjective beliefs about the outcomes of educational choices and the generation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) in post-industrial society. Taking my departure in the rational action turn in the sociology of educational...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  1. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... inequalities if educational reform is to promote educational and social mobility in post-industrial society. I pursue my research agenda in five chapters. In the introductory Chapter I I situate my research contributions in the tradition of the sociology of educational stratification. This chapter also...... outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...

  2. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......, they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  3. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...... stratification, I argue that students facing significant educational transitions form their educational expectations by taking into account the foreseeable, yet inherently uncertain, consequences of potential educational pathways. This process of expectation formation, I posit, involves evaluations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...

  4. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    stratification, I argue that students facing significant educational transitions form their educational expectations by taking into account the foreseeable, yet inherently uncertain, consequences of potential educational pathways. This process of expectation formation, I posit, involves evaluations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...

  5. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    In this dissertation I examine the relationship between subjective beliefs about the outcomes of educational choices and the generation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) in post-industrial society. Taking my departure in the rational action turn in the sociology of educational...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...

  6. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  7. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  8. Optimistic expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Claus

    2015-01-01

    Young Australians’ post-school futures are uncertain, insecure and fluid in relation to working life. But if you think that this is the recipe for a next generation of depressed young Australians, you may be wrong. A new book documents that young people are characterised by optimism, but their ex......, but their expectations of the future differ from those of their parents....

  9. Youth and Expectations on Democracy in Spain: the Role of Individual Human Values Structure of Young People in Dimension of Democracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liberto Carratalà Puertas

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Democracy is a form of social organization based on popular sovereignty. The rise of democracy has run in parallel to economic growth in society and this system of government has been increasingly adopted in other countries (Inglehart, 2005. The same concept has been defined over time in different ways according to their historical characteristics. According to Kluckhohn (1958, humans react to external stimuli as well as to their own interpretations of stimuli as per a cognitive framework defined by the cul-ture in which the individual is inserted. This research is aimed at learning how values influence the concept that young Spaniards have of democracy and determine how these affect each dimension, factor or element in which the study of this type of social organization can be divided. In order to carry out this research we are using data from the sixth round of the European Social Survey (ESS conducted in 2012. The sample consists of two groups, one with individuals aged 18 to 30 and a second group with people over 30 years of age. Results indicate that democracy —and its elements— is not an ideal concept, or it should not be seen as an invariable, objective concept, external to citizens. It is rather an adaptive and evolving instrument, consubstantial to each individual’s vital experience and society’s in its whole in which values have a joint function between the macro and the micro-social groups.

  10. Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eun-Mi

    This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life

  11. Rational Expectations in Games

    OpenAIRE

    Robert J. Aumann; Jacques H. Dreze

    2008-01-01

    A player i's actions in a game are determined by her beliefs about other players; these depend on the game's real-life context, not only its formal description. Define a game situation as a game together with such beliefs; call the beliefs— and i's resulting expectation—rational if there is common knowledge of rationality and a common prior. In two-person zero-sum games, i's only rational expectation is the game’s value. In an arbitrary game G, we characterize i's rational expectations in ter...

  12. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  13. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  14. An Investigation of the Effects of Customer’s Expectations and Perceived Quality on Customer’s Loyalty with the Mediating Role of the Perceived Value and Customer’s Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoudreza Mostaghimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of customer’s expectations and the perceived quality on customer’s loyalty with the mediating role of the perceived value and customer’s satisfaction. The statistic population of the article includes the customers of the agencies of Iran Khodro Company in Gilan province, the city of Rasht and due to the infinity of statistic population, the sample volume has been considered from the amount of 384, based on the Morgan table. After the collection of questionnaires, data has been analyzed by means of LISREL Software. The analysis of findings indicates that customer’s expectations of the products of Iran Khodro Company affected the perceived quality of the product as well as customer’s satisfaction positively and meaningfully. The research results have also indicated that the perceived quality of the products of Iran Khodro Company also has affected the perceived value of the product and the customer’s satisfaction, which has been representative of customer’s loyalty. In the area of customer’s perceptions of the quality of hardware, managers must pay more attention to beauty and charm of the surroundings and try to provide enough explanation and necessary response to customer’s questions about the selected automobiles. It is suggested to managers that by means of improving one of the dimensions of quality, they also improve customer’s perceptions and requests in other dimensions. Planning is necessary and required in order to improve the local space of agencies, improving the quality, and decreasing components prices. Planning for decreasing final price and supplying components with lower prices will be important.

  15. Patients’ values and preferences of the expected efficacy of hip arthroscopy for osteoarthritis: a protocol for a multinational structured interview-based study combined with a randomised survey on the optimal amount of information to elicit preferences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuqing; Tikkinen, Kari A O; Agoritsas, Thomas; Ayeni, Olufemi R; Alexander, Paul; Imam, Maha; Yoo, Daniel; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Thabane, Lehana; Schünemann, Holger; Guyatt, Gordon H

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Symptomatic hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a disabling condition with up to a 25% cumulative lifetime risk. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is effective in relieving patients’ symptoms and improving function. It is, however, associated with substantial risk of complications, pain and major functional limitation before patients can return to full function. In contrast, hip arthroscopy (HA) is less invasive and can postpone THA. However, there is no evidence regarding the delay in the need for THA that patients would find acceptable to undergoing HA. Knowing patients’ values and preferences (VP) on this expected delay is critical when making recommendations regarding the advisability of HA. Furthermore, little is known on the optimal amount of information regarding interventions and outcomes needed to present in order to optimally elicit patients’ VP. Methods and analysis We will perform a multinational, structured interview-based survey of preference in delay time for THA among patients with non-advanced OA who failed to respond to conservative therapy. We will combine these interviews with a randomised trial addressing the optimal amount of information regarding the interventions and outcomes required to elicit preferences. Eligible patients will be randomly assigned (1 : 1) to either a short or a long format of health scenarios of THA and HA. We will determine each patient's VP using a trade-off and anticipated regret exercises. Our primary outcomes for the combined surveys will be: (1) the minimal delay time in the need for THA surgery that patients would find acceptable to undertaking HA, (2) patients’ satisfaction with the amount of information provided in the health scenarios used to elicit their VPs. Ethics and dissemination The protocol has been approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board (HIREB13-506). We will disseminate our study findings through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, and make them

  16. Patients' values and preferences of the expected efficacy of hip arthroscopy for osteoarthritis: a protocol for a multinational structured interview-based study combined with a randomised survey on the optimal amount of information to elicit preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuqing; Tikkinen, Kari A O; Agoritsas, Thomas; Ayeni, Olufemi R; Alexander, Paul; Imam, Maha; Yoo, Daniel; Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Djulbegovic, Benjamin; Thabane, Lehana; Schünemann, Holger; Guyatt, Gordon H

    2014-10-17

    Symptomatic hip osteoarthritis (OA) is a disabling condition with up to a 25% cumulative lifetime risk. Total hip arthroplasty (THA) is effective in relieving patients' symptoms and improving function. It is, however, associated with substantial risk of complications, pain and major functional limitation before patients can return to full function. In contrast, hip arthroscopy (HA) is less invasive and can postpone THA. However, there is no evidence regarding the delay in the need for THA that patients would find acceptable to undergoing HA. Knowing patients' values and preferences (VP) on this expected delay is critical when making recommendations regarding the advisability of HA. Furthermore, little is known on the optimal amount of information regarding interventions and outcomes needed to present in order to optimally elicit patients' VP. We will perform a multinational, structured interview-based survey of preference in delay time for THA among patients with non-advanced OA who failed to respond to conservative therapy. We will combine these interviews with a randomised trial addressing the optimal amount of information regarding the interventions and outcomes required to elicit preferences. Eligible patients will be randomly assigned (1 : 1) to either a short or a long format of health scenarios of THA and HA. We will determine each patient's VP using a trade-off and anticipated regret exercises. Our primary outcomes for the combined surveys will be: (1) the minimal delay time in the need for THA surgery that patients would find acceptable to undertaking HA, (2) patients' satisfaction with the amount of information provided in the health scenarios used to elicit their VPs. The protocol has been approved by the Hamilton Integrated Research Ethics Board (HIREB13-506). We will disseminate our study findings through peer-reviewed publications and conference presentations, and make them available to guideline makers issuing recommendations addressing HA and

  17. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... calculated remaining life expectancies for values of age 15, 25, 35 ⃛ 75 years among all individuals alive in year 2000. RESULTS: For the typical male or female patient aged 25 to 45 years, the remaining life expectancy was decreased by 12.0-8.7 years and 10.6-8.3 years, respectively. The ratio between...

  18. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-08-01

    Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we calculated remaining life expectancies for values of age 15, 25, 35 ⃛ 75 years among all individuals alive in year 2000. For the typical male or female patient aged 25 to 45 years, the remaining life expectancy was decreased by 12.0-8.7 years and 10.6-8.3 years, respectively. The ratio between remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously reported. Patients start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Expecting Immediate Grades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qin Zhao

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Two experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of expecting immediate grades on numerical and verbal reasoning performance and the moderating role of achievement goals. Anticipated grade proximity (immediate vs. 1 week later and goal orientation (approach vs. avoidance were manipulated with instructions. Experiment 1 showed that expecting immediate grades yielded lower numerical performance than expecting delayed feedback, regardless of participants’ goal orientation. Neither grade proximity nor goal orientation impacted verbal performance. In Experiment 2, we used a stronger goal manipulation and included measures of motivation. Expecting immediate grades increased task anxiety, lowered task involvement, and lowered task effort among participants with avoidance goals, compared with expecting delayed grades. The effects on performance were not replicated in Experiment 2, however. The findings demonstrate that expecting immediate grades may have negative consequences under certain conditions, including demotivation and performance impairment.

  20. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  1. Humans expect generosity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brañas-Garza, Pablo; Rodríguez-Lara, Ismael; Sánchez, Angel

    2017-02-01

    Mechanisms supporting human ultra-cooperativeness are very much subject to debate. One psychological feature likely to be relevant is the formation of expectations, particularly about receiving cooperative or generous behavior from others. Without such expectations, social life will be seriously impeded and, in turn, expectations leading to satisfactory interactions can become norms and institutionalize cooperation. In this paper, we assess people’s expectations of generosity in a series of controlled experiments using the dictator game. Despite differences in respective roles, involvement in the game, degree of social distance or variation of stakes, the results are conclusive: subjects seldom predict that dictators will behave selfishly (by choosing the Nash equilibrium action, namely giving nothing). The majority of subjects expect that dictators will choose the equal split. This implies that generous behavior is not only observed in the lab, but also expected by subjects. In addition, expectations are accurate, matching closely the donations observed and showing that as a society we have a good grasp of how we interact. Finally, correlation between expectations and actual behavior suggests that expectations can be an important ingredient of generous or cooperative behavior.

  2. Communicating expectancies about others

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wigboldus, Daniel H. J.; Semin, Gun R.; Spears, Russell

    2006-01-01

    The linguistic expectancy bias hypothesis predicts that, in general, person impressions are shared with others via subtle differences in the level of linguistic abstraction that is used to communicate expected and unexpected information about an individual. In a two-part communication experiment, we

  3. Marijuana: College Students' Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumstein, Regina

    1980-01-01

    Focused on college students' expectations about marijuana. Undergraduates (N=210) expected marijuana to have sedating effects; they largely discounted psychological consequences. Students considered marijuana to be an educational issue and favored decriminalization of the drug. Users, occasional users, and nonusers differed significantly in…

  4. Expectations in experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wagener, F.

    2014-01-01

    The rational expectations hypothesis is one of the cornerstones of current economic theorizing. This review discusses a number of experiments that focus on expectation formation by human subjects in a number of learning-to-forecast experiments and analyzes the implications for the rational

  5. A Rational Expectations Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peterson, Norris A.

    1990-01-01

    Presents a simple classroom simulation of the Lucas supply curve mechanism with rational expectations. Concludes that the exercise has proved very useful as an introduction to the concepts of rational and adaptive expectations, the Lucas supply curve, the natural rate hypothesis, and random supply shocks. (DB)

  6. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire....... A survey completed by 1,003 residents of wildfire-prone areas in Perth, Australia, revealed that perceived risk (especially risk severity) and perceived protection responsibility were both positively associated with all types of preparedness, but the latter did not significantly predict preparedness after...

  7. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred......We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...... of death in the United States. Mortality rates and life tables for 2040 were derived by sex and age. Life expectancy at age 20 and 65 was compared to figures published by the Social Security Administration and to estimates from the Lee-Carter method. There was agreement among all three approaches that life...

  8. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  9. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2017-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

  10. Expectancy Theory in Media and Message Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Leuven, Jim

    1981-01-01

    Argues for reversing emphasis on uses and gratifications research in favor of an expectancy model which holds that selection of a particular medium depends on (1) the expectation that the choice will be followed by a message of interest and (2) the importance of that message in satisfying user's values. (PD)

  11. Testing Expected Shortfall Models for Derivative Positions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kerkhof, F.L.J.; Melenberg, B.; Schumacher, J.M.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we test several risk management models for computing expected shortfall for one-period hedge errors of hedged derivatives positions.Contrary to value-at-risk, expected shortfall cannot be tested using the standard binomial test, since we need information of the distribution in the

  12. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  13. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    hypothesis. Finally, we use ex-ante spanned subjective beliefs to evaluate several reduced-form and structural models. We find support for heterogeneous beliefs models and also uncover a number of statistically significant relationships in favour of alternative rational expectations models once the effect......This paper studies the properties of bond risk premia in the cross-section of subjective expectations. We exploit an extensive dataset of yield curve forecasts from financial institutions and document a number of novel findings. First, contrary to evidence presented for stock markets but consistent......-primary dealers. Third, we reject the null hypothesis that subjective expected bond returns are constant. When predicting long term rates, however, primary dealers have no information advantage. This suggests that a key source of variation in long-term bonds are risk premia and not short- term rate variation...

  14. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  15. The Value of Value Sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sløk-Madsen, Stefan Kirkegaard; Christensen, Jesper

    behavior. This paper attempt to test such a claim. This is done via unique and privileged access to top-level managers in a Fortune 250 company. This company is special in having very well-defined, long-running values that are in opposition to a narrowly defined homo-economics rationality. These values...... involving vignettes and games. Their results were compared to their actual knowledge of the content of the company corporate values. The results were tested against hypotheses on expected rational behavior and a control group consisting of similar level managers from other companies. This study makes...... and anecdotally true surprisingly little hard evidence has been produced either for or against. This study attempts to rectify this. The study claims that for corporate values to matter they must at least align, and potentially alter, employee decision-making hence their concept of optimality and rational...

  16. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  17. Great Expectations. [Lesson Plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devine, Kelley

    Based on Charles Dickens' novel "Great Expectations," this lesson plan presents activities designed to help students understand the differences between totalitarianism and democracy; and a that a writer of a story considers theme, plot, characters, setting, and point of view. The main activity of the lesson involves students working in groups to…

  18. Maintaining High Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Roger; Williams, Sherry

    2014-01-01

    Author and husband, Roger Williams, is hearing and signs fluently, and author and wife, Sherry Williams, is deaf and uses both speech and signs, although she is most comfortable signing. As parents of six children--deaf and hearing--they are determined to encourage their children to do their best, and they always set their expectations high. They…

  19. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    This paper exploits the unexpected decline in the death rate from cardiovascular diseases since the 1970s as a large positive health shock that affected predominantly old-age mortality; i.e. the fourth stage of the epidemiological transition. Using a difference-in-differences estimation strategy......, we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  20. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    statistical learning, causing comparatively sharper key profiles in musicians, we hypothesised that musical learning can be modelled as a process of entropy reduction through experience. Specifically, implicit learning of statistical regularities allows reduction in the relative entropy (i.e. symmetrised...... Kullback-Leibler or Jensen-Shannon Divergence) between listeners’ prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions of a musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians were revisited. In Experiments 1-2 participants...... and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure to novel music. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions, statistical learning over varying timescales enables listeners to generate melodic expectations with reduced entropy...

  1. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  2. Genetic enhancements and expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorensen, K

    2009-07-01

    Some argue that genetic enhancements and environmental enhancements are not importantly different: environmental enhancements such as private schools and chess lessons are simply the old-school way to have a designer baby. I argue that there is an important distinction between the two practices--a distinction that makes state restrictions on genetic enhancements more justifiable than state restrictions on environmental enhancements. The difference is that parents have no settled expectations about genetic enhancements.

  3. Reputation and Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Andersen, Torben; Risager, Ole

    1987-01-01

    The paper considers the importance of reputation in relation to disinflationary policies in a continuous time ration expectations model, where the private sector has incomplete information about the true preferences of the government. It is proved that there is a unique equilibrium with the important property that the costs of disinflation arise in the start of the game where the policy has not yet gained credibility. Published in connection with a visit at the IIES.

  4. Five Values of Giftedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besjes-de Bock, Karin M.; de Ruyter, Doret J.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes five values attributed to giftedness. The ascription of values to this phenomenon resembles values attached to gifts in gift-giving processes. Whereas gift-giving often includes expectations of reciprocity, each gift possesses a numerical, utility, social, personal, and intrinsic value. Developmental models of giftedness and…

  5. Modelling and Forecasting Health Expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I.M. Májer (István)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractLife expectancy of a human population measures the expected (or average) remaining years of life at a given age. Life expectancy can be defined by two forms of measurement: the period and the cohort life expectancy. The period life expectancy represents the mortality conditions at a

  6. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    to interpret their own educational histories and prior experiences, while at the same time making use of imaginaries of 'Western' education to redefine themselves as independent individuals in an increasingly globalised and individualised world. Through a case study of prospective pre-school teachers preparing...... to study abroad, the article shows how personal, professional and even national goals are closely interwoven. Students expect education abroad to be a personally transformative experience, but rather than defining their goals of individual freedom and creativity in opposition to the authoritarian political...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  7. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  8. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  9. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  10. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  11. Computing the Expected Value and Variance of Geometric Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staals, Frank; Tsirogiannis, Constantinos

    2017-01-01

    ; in the first distribution (which we call the Bernoulli distribution), each point p in P is included in the random subset independently, with probability pi(p). In the second distribution (the fixed-size distribution), a subset of exactly s points is selected uniformly at random among all possible subsets of s...

  12. Powerball, Expected Value, and the Law of (Very) Large Numbers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mecklin, Christopher J.; Donnelly, Robert G.

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we consider some combinatorial and statistical aspects of the popular "Powerball" lottery game. It is not difficult for students in an introductory statistics course to compute the probabilities of winning various prizes, including the "jackpot" in the Powerball game. Assuming a unique jackpot winner, it is not difficult to find the…

  13. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aven, T. (Terje)

    2008-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Description...

  14. Monitoring treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator using the EXPECT-ICD scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Habibovic, M.; Pedersen, S.S.; van den Broek, K.C.; Denollet, J.

    2014-01-01

    Aims Patient treatment expectations may affect cardiac outcomes; however, till date, no validated instruments have been developed to monitor treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). This study evaluates the predictive value of the newly developed

  15. [Retinal implants. Patients' expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gusseck, H

    2005-10-01

    The "Pro Retina" Society and the "Retina Implant" Foundation, two patients associations with the goal of "preventing blindness," view the "Retina Implant" project as a possibility for providing blind individuals a modicum of restored vision. Both patients associations cultivated a cooperative relationship with researchers and policy makers already during the research phase, introducing the wishes and concerns of patients into considerations and providing information and the groundwork for acceptance in society and among those who may potentially benefit from the method. An initial survey of patients, the visually impaired, and blind people revealed that recovery of sight not only represents a medical and technical problem but that it also involves numerous psychosocial implications. By adhering to ethical standards in implantations, in particular by taking patient autonomy into consideration, anxieties and fears can be reduced. It would appear from early positive results in a short-term clinical study that soon successful chronic retinal implantation can be expected. The dedication displayed by physicians, researchers, and the industry as well as the willingness of the Federal Ministry for Research to take the risk are appreciated and greatfully accepted by the patients and their relatives.

  16. Expectations and speech intelligibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babel, Molly; Russell, Jamie

    2015-05-01

    Socio-indexical cues and paralinguistic information are often beneficial to speech processing as this information assists listeners in parsing the speech stream. Associations that particular populations speak in a certain speech style can, however, make it such that socio-indexical cues have a cost. In this study, native speakers of Canadian English who identify as Chinese Canadian and White Canadian read sentences that were presented to listeners in noise. Half of the sentences were presented with a visual-prime in the form of a photo of the speaker and half were presented in control trials with fixation crosses. Sentences produced by Chinese Canadians showed an intelligibility cost in the face-prime condition, whereas sentences produced by White Canadians did not. In an accentedness rating task, listeners rated White Canadians as less accented in the face-prime trials, but Chinese Canadians showed no such change in perceived accentedness. These results suggest a misalignment between an expected and an observed speech signal for the face-prime trials, which indicates that social information about a speaker can trigger linguistic associations that come with processing benefits and costs.

  17. Five values of giftedness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besjes, K.M.; de Ruyter, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes five values attributed to giftedness. The ascription of values to this phenomenon resembles values attached to gifts in gift-giving processes. Whereas gift-giving often includes expectations of reciprocity, each gift possesses a numerical, utility, social, personal, and

  18. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış Soybilgen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.

  19. The Value of Value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Asger

    As a social scientist of ethics and morality, Luhmann has noticed the ethical wave that has recently swept across the western world, and states that this particular kind of wave seems to have a wavelength of about one hundred years (cf. Luhmann 1989: 9 ff.). Even though the frequency and the regu...... attempted to answer this question by investigating what the use of the term `value' leads to in ethical discourses, i.e., what moral implications it has for ethics to focus on the concept of value....... parts of business ethics given prominence to especially one term, namely `value'. The question that interests me is the following: What does the articulation of ethics and morality in terms of values mean for ethics and morality as such. Or, to put the question in a more fashionably way: What...... is the value of value for morality and ethics?To make things a bit more precise, we can make use of the common distinction between ethics and morality, i.e. that morality is the immediate, collective and unconscious employment of morals, whereas ethics is the systematic, individual and conscious reflections...

  20. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth......, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year....

  1. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth......, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year....

  2. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  3. Familiarity changes expectations about fullness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Shakeshaft, Nicholas G; Alexander, Erin

    2010-06-01

    Expected satiation (the extent to which a food is expected to deliver fullness) is an excellent predictor of self-selected portion size (kcal). Here, we explored the prospect that expected satiation changes over time. Fifty-eight participants evaluated expected satiation in eight test foods (including two 'candidate' foods: sushi and muesli) and reported how often they consumed each food. In one of the candidate foods (sushi), and across other test foods, expected satiation increased with familiarity. Together, these findings are considered in the context of 'satiation drift' - the hypothesis that foods are expected to deliver poor satiation until experience teaches us otherwise. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Formation of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.

    2012-01-01

    Abstract: This paper models expectation formation by taking into account that agents produce heterogeneous expectations due to model uncertainty, informational frictions and different capacities for processing information. We show that there are two general classes of steady states within this

  5. What Value "Value Added"?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richards, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Two quantitative measures of school performance are currently used, the average points score (APS) at Key Stage 2 and value-added (VA), which measures the rate of academic improvement between Key Stage 1 and 2. These figures are used by parents and the Office for Standards in Education to make judgements and comparisons. However, simple…

  6. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...

  7. More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

  8. Gompertz-Makeham Life Expectancies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Missov, Trifon I.; Lenart, Adam; Vaupel, James W.

    We study the Gompertz and Gompertz-Makeham mortality models. We prove that the resulting life expectancy can be expressed in terms of a hypergeometric function if the population is heterogeneous with gamma-distributed individual frailty, or an incomplete gamma function if the study population...... is homogeneous. We use the properties of hypergeometric and incomplete gamma functions to construct approximations that allow calculating the respective life expectancy with high accuracy and interpreting the impact of model parameters on life expectancy....

  9. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    at all ages, and the second term captures the effect of heterogeneity in the pace of improvement in mortality at different ages. We extend the formula to decompose change in life expectancy into age-specific and cause-specific components, and apply the methods to analyze changes in life expectancy......We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...

  10. Fiscal Consolidations and Heterogeneous Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Lustenhouwer, J.; Mavromatis, K.

    2015-01-01

    We analyze fiscal consolidations using a New Keynesian model where agents have heterogeneous expectations and are uncertain about the composition of consoidations. Heterogeneity in expectations may amplify expansions, stabilizing thus the debt-to-GDP ratio faster under tax based consolidations, in

  11. Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Hlawatsch

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

  12. Adding more value to added-value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marian, Livia

    Recent studies reveal that consumers respond favourably to “organic plus” products with additional ethical attributes. The aim of the current study is to explore whether consumers would notice and value further improvements in the animal welfare standards than those imposed by the organic...... it is probably valued less than expected. The added attributes need to be thoroughly considered when developing and marketing “organic plus” products, as their effect on other product characteristics (e.g. high prices) can detract from their added value....

  13. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  14. Rational Expectations and Economic Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffrin, Steven M.

    1980-01-01

    Examines how rational expectation models can help describe and predict trends within an economy and explains research needs within the discipline of economics which will enable economists to make more valid predictions. (DB)

  15. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  16. Burn Patient Expectations from Nurses

    OpenAIRE

    Sibel Yilmaz sahin; Umran Dal; Gulsen Vural

    2014-01-01

    AIM: Burn is a kind of painful trauma that requires a long period of treatment and also changes patients body image. For this reason, nursing care of burn patients is very important. In this study in order to provide qualified care to the burned patients, patient and #8217;s expectations from nurses were aimed to be established. METHODS: Patients and #8217; expectations were evaluated on 101 patients with burn in Ministry of Health Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital Burn Servic...

  17. Rational Expectation Can Preclude Trades

    OpenAIRE

    Matsuhisa, Takashi; Ishikawa, Ryuichiro

    2003-01-01

    We consider a pure exchange economy under uncertainty in which the traders have the non-partition structure of information. They willing to trade the amounts of state-contingent commodities and they know their own expectations. Common knowledge of these conditions among all the traders can preclude trade if the initial endowments allocation is ex-ante Pareto optimal. Furthermore we introduce rational expectations equilibrium under the non-partition information, and prove the existence theorem...

  18. Rational Expectations: Retrospect and Prospect

    OpenAIRE

    Hoover, Kevin; Young, Warren

    2011-01-01

    The transcript of a panel discussion marking the fiftieth anniversary of John Muth's "Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements" (Econometrica 1961). The panel consists of Michael Lovell, Robert Lucas, Dale Mortensen, Robert Shiller, and Neil Wallace. The discussion is moderated by Kevin Hoover and Warren Young. The panel touches on a wide variety of issues related to the rational-expectations hypothesis, including: its history, starting with Muth's work at Carnegie Tech; its me...

  19. Burn Patient Expectations from Nurses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sibel Yilmaz sahin

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available AIM: Burn is a kind of painful trauma that requires a long period of treatment and also changes patients body image. For this reason, nursing care of burn patients is very important. In this study in order to provide qualified care to the burned patients, patient and #8217;s expectations from nurses were aimed to be established. METHODS: Patients and #8217; expectations were evaluated on 101 patients with burn in Ministry of Health Ankara Numune Education and Research Hospital Burn Service and Gulhane Military Medical Academy Education and Research Hospital Burn Center. A questionnaire which was developed by the researchers was used for collecting data. The questions on the questionnaire were classified into four groups to evaluate the patients and #8217; expectations about communication, information, care and discharge. Data was evaluated by using SPSS 12 package software. RESULTS: In this study, 48.5% of patients were at 18-28 age group, 79.2% were male and 51.5% of patients were employed. Almost all of patients expect nurses to give them confidence (98% and to give them information about latest developments with the disease. Patients prior expectation from nurses about care was to do their treatments regularly (100% and to take the necessary precautions in order to prevent infection (100%. 97% of patient expect nurses to give them information about the drugs, materials and equipment that they are going to use while discharge. CONCLUSION: As a result we found that burn patient expectations from nurses about communication, information, care and discharge were high. [TAF Prev Med Bull 2014; 13(1.000: 37-46

  20. Academic Expectations as Sources of Stress in Asian Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Joyce Beiyu; Yates, Shirley

    2011-01-01

    Education is highly valued in Confucian Heritage Culture (CHC) countries such as China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea but the expectations of parents, teachers and students themselves to excel academically can also be a source of intense stress for many students. The "Academic Expectations Stress Inventory" (AESI),…

  1. Expectations and experiences of customers in formal full service ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    staff greeting customers' whilst the lowest expectations items were “pleasant odours” and “spatial layout and functionality”. The highest experience items were; 'taste of food', 'taste of beverages' and 'value for money' whilst the lowest ...

  2. Public Values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck Jørgensen, Torben; Rutgers, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    administration is approached in terms of processes guided or restricted by public values and as public value creating: public management and public policy-making are both concerned with establishing, following and realizing public values. To study public values a broad perspective is needed. The article suggest......This article provides the introduction to a symposium on contemporary public values research. It is argued that the contribution to this symposium represent a Public Values Perspective, distinct from other specific lines of research that also use public value as a core concept. Public...... a research agenda for this encompasing kind of public values research. Finally the contributions to the symposium are introduced....

  3. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  4. Expectations and experiences of temporarily studying abroad

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per A. Nilsson

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This tentative study focuses on the experiences of outbound exchange students and underlines the international relations component among contemporary universities. The aim is to investigate to what extent the expectations of outbound exchange students are being met in a population of students who had temporarily studied abroad. In this study, Umeå University, Sweden, is used as a case. The study was inspired by Plog’s studies (1974, 2001 in the field of tourism and hospitality research. Exchange students show similarities with tourists when it comes to choosing study destinations. This study partially confirms Plog’s model. Students who are outgoing and self-confident seem to choose non-English speaking countries. In addition, this study highlights what incentives students have, to become exchange students and most importantly how they value this experience. The respondents had positive expectations before departing as exchange students and they returned with even more positive attitudes.

  5. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  6. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  7. Obtaining a pet: realistic expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marder, Amy; Duxbury, Margaret M

    2008-09-01

    Millions of dog-human relationships fail each year-some from simple and preventable mismatches. False or unrealistic expectations of a dog's behavior are a common reason for failed human-animal bonds. Veterinarians can reduce the incidence of false expectations and thereby increase the likelihood of successful adoptions by offering preadoption counseling to help clients sort through the many factors involved in the process of successful pet selection, by preparing clients to take on the important tasks of puppy socialization and the management of the home learning environment, and by educating new owners about the needs and behavior of dogs.

  8. The value of reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Karlström, Anders

    2010-01-01

    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless...

  9. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  10. Education: Expectation and the Unexpected

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulford, Amanda

    2016-01-01

    This paper considers concepts of expectation and responsibility, and how these drive dialogic interactions between tutor and student in an age of marketised Higher Education. In thinking about such interactions in terms of different forms of exchange, the paper considers the philosophy of Martin Buber and Emmanuel Levinas on dialogic…

  11. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  12. Expectations and retail profit margins

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.G.J. den Hertog; A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn this study expectations and prediction errors are introduced in the context of retail price setting. A new model and a new data set are used to examine whether prediction errors influence retail price setting, whether prediction errors cause only limited price changes to maintain

  13. Youth expectations in job search in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlović Dejana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Youth on the labour market in developing countries such as Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina are facing numerous difficulties, with almost a half of their population aged between 15 -24 not working or working in informal sector. The reasons may be numerous. The financial crisis and the low economic development of the country have had negative impact on young generations and this resulted in lack of sufficient jobs vacancies. In addition, the reasons for their slow entry into the labour market could be the lack of experience, low education among young people etc. Although employers have certain expectations of young people, once they enter the labour market young people have certain values that are important for them when choosing a job. The paper presents the research on the expectations of young people entering labour market in the Republic of Serbia. According to survey results based on analyses of youth' expectations and preferences in Serbia regarding potential work conditions, authors have by the means of factor analysis identified which groups of factors are the most important for young people ages between 16 and 30 in job finding in Serbia. The results showed that there is a significance of three questions: 1. Job does not affect the private life; 2. Work resources are provided; 3. Work is safe. In conclusion, if a company ensures that these three issues are regulated, it will more likely employ young professionals.

  14. Smooth paths of conditional expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Andruchow, Esteban; Larotonda, Gabriel

    2010-01-01

    Let A be a von Neumann algebra with a finite trace $\\tau$, represented in $H=L^2(A,\\tau)$, and let $B_t\\subset A$ be sub-algebras, for $t$ in an interval $I$. Let $E_t:A\\to B_t$ be the unique $\\tau$-preserving conditional expectation. We say that the path $t\\mapsto E_t$ is smooth if for every $a\\in A$ and $v \\in H$, the map $$ I\

  15. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  16. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  17. Career Expectations and Perceptions of Part-Time MBA Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fish, Lynn A.; Fish, Lauren A.

    2010-01-01

    In the U.S., part-time MBA students regard work/life balance as the critical factor that drives career expectations and perceptions. Job aspects and benefits/compensation closely follow in importance, while employee relations are valued less. Within work/life balance, students value job location, travel time, and telecommuting. Promotional…

  18. Primary Care Clinician Expectations Regarding Aging

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Melinda M.; Bond, Lynne A.; Howard, Alan; Sarkisian, Catherine A.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: Expectations regarding aging (ERA) in community-dwelling older adults are associated with personal health behaviors and health resource usage. Clinicians' age expectations likely influence patients' expectations and care delivery patterns; yet, limited research has explored clinicians' age expectations. The Expectations Regarding Aging…

  19. Self-Averaging Expectation Propagation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cakmak, Burak; Opper, Manfred; Fleury, Bernard Henri

    We investigate the problem of approximate inference using Expectation Propagation (EP) for large systems under some statistical assumptions. Our approach tries to overcome the numerical bottleneck of EP caused by the inversion of large matrices. Assuming that the measurement matrices...... are realizations of specific types of random matrix ensembles – called invariant ensembles – the EP cavity variances have an asymptotic self-averaging property. They can be pre-computed using specific generating functions which do not require matrix inversions. We demonstrate the performance of our approach...

  20. Implementing Target Value Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Thais da C L; Lichtig, Will; Rybkowski, Zofia K

    2017-04-01

    An alternative to the traditional way of designing projects is the process of target value design (TVD), which takes different departure points to start the design process. The TVD process starts with the client defining an allowable cost that needs to be met by the design and construction teams. An expected cost in the TVD process is defined through multiple interactions between multiple stakeholders who define wishes and others who define ways of achieving these wishes. Finally, a target cost is defined based on the expected profit the design and construction teams are expecting to make. TVD follows a series of continuous improvement efforts aimed at reaching the desired goals for the project and its associated target value cost. The process takes advantage of rapid cycles of suggestions, analyses, and implementation that starts with the definition of value for the client. In the traditional design process, the goal is to identify user preferences and find solutions that meet the needs of the client's expressed preferences. In the lean design process, the goal is to educate users about their values and advocate for a better facility over the long run; this way owners can help contractors and designers to identify better solutions. This article aims to inform the healthcare community about tools and techniques commonly used during the TVD process and how they can be used to educate and support project participants in developing better solutions to meet their needs now as well as in the future.

  1. Value Investing

    OpenAIRE

    Kubínyi, Tomáš

    2014-01-01

    This bachelor's thesis deals with value investing in the form defined by Benjamin Graham. In clarifying the theoretical aspects, particular attention is given to an intrinsic value of stocks and to its calculation methods. A way to overcome the deficiencies in the two most widely used models of calculation is introduced. It is value screening, which by defining of certain criteria makes an assumption of undervalued stocks. Then the investment approach of the most successful investor, Warren B...

  2. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  3. Do recovery expectations change over time?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kamper, S.J.; Kongsted, A.; Haanstra, T.M.; Hestbaek, L.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: While a considerable body of research has explored the relationship between patient expectations and clinical outcomes, few studies investigate the extent to which patient expectations change over time. Further, the temporal relationship between expectations and symptoms is not well

  4. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Sarah; Taylor, Karl

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  5. Deriving equity from expectations: A cross-cultural evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melamed, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops and evaluates a new model for predicting just rewards. The model produces point predictions for individual just rewards based on status characteristics and the expected value of a valued good. The equity model borrows from Berger and colleagues' (1998) reward expectations theory the ability to define different reward expectations. Drawing from Melamed and Walker's (2010) recent generalization of the mathematics of reward expectations theory, I illustrate how the model generates a continuous distribution of just rewards. The general model is applied to data from thirteen countries using the International Social Justice Project. The results illustrate the predictive power of the model using data from over 10,000 respondents. Implications and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Values and entrepreneurship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Urbanová

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the importance of values ​​in business development. The authors remind M. Weber and his study about the impact of Protestantism on business development. After defining the concept of value, attention is focused on the theory of R.K. Merton, T. Parsons, R. Inglehart. Using the critical sociological approach the authors reflect on the research strategies in the area of values. In this context is mentioned for example the issue of ideal and real cultures – ideal cultures consist of norms and values to which people officially claim, e.g. values of Christian civilization, values of Central Europe; so-called universal values are very often (or should be a base for legal norms. Real cultures represent a pattern according to which people act and regard it socially acceptable. In this context is also discussed the question of individualism without responsibility that is typical for current western society as well as for the Czech society of last decades. Value orientations are patterns for expected roles, culturally defined types of human relations, expressing the basic attitudes in social interaction. The level of prevailing business values is visible also in many multinational corporations espousing the concept of corporate social responsibility within their promotion but violating it in reality.

  7. Cultural Expectations and Parental Involvement in Early Literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Meredith, Stephens; Richard, Blight

    2003-01-01

    This study investigates the involvement of parents in early literacy in Japanese and Australian primary schools. While both schools valued support from parents in the education process, different cultural expectations are evident in each system. A number of significant areas are discussed, including traditional domestic situations in Japan, changing work cultures in Australia, education and maternal duties, higher expectations in Japan, parents supporting homework activities, parents supporti...

  8. Motor Activity Improves Temporal Expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fautrelle, Lilian; Mareschal, Denis; French, Robert; Addyman, Caspar; Thomas, Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Certain brain areas involved in interval timing are also important in motor activity. This raises the possibility that motor activity might influence interval timing. To test this hypothesis, we assessed interval timing in healthy adults following different types of training. The pre- and post-training tasks consisted of a button press in response to the presentation of a rhythmic visual stimulus. Alterations in temporal expectancy were evaluated by measuring response times. Training consisted of responding to the visual presentation of regularly appearing stimuli by either: (1) pointing with a whole-body movement, (2) pointing only with the arm, (3) imagining pointing with a whole-body movement, (4) simply watching the stimulus presentation, (5) pointing with a whole-body movement in response to a target that appeared at irregular intervals (6) reading a newspaper. Participants performing a motor activity in response to the regular target showed significant improvements in judgment times compared to individuals with no associated motor activity. Individuals who only imagined pointing with a whole-body movement also showed significant improvements. No improvements were observed in the group that trained with a motor response to an irregular stimulus, hence eliminating the explanation that the improved temporal expectations of the other motor training groups was purely due to an improved motor capacity to press the response button. All groups performed a secondary task equally well, hence indicating that our results could not simply be attributed to differences in attention between the groups. Our results show that motor activity, even when it does not play a causal or corrective role, can lead to improved interval timing judgments. PMID:25806813

  9. [Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  10. The value of value congruence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Jeffrey R; Cable, Daniel M

    2009-05-01

    Research on value congruence has attempted to explain why value congruence leads to positive outcomes, but few of these explanations have been tested empirically. In this article, the authors develop and test a theoretical model that integrates 4 key explanations of value congruence effects, which are framed in terms of communication, predictability, interpersonal attraction, and trust. These constructs are used to explain the process by which value congruence relates to job satisfaction, organizational identification, and intent to stay in the organization, after taking psychological need fulfillment into account. Data from a heterogeneous sample of employees from 4 organizations indicate that the relationships that link individual and organizational values to outcomes are explained primarily by the trust that employees place in the organization and its members, followed by communication, and, to a lesser extent, interpersonal attraction. Polynomial regression analyses reveal that the relationships emanating from individual and organizational values often deviated from the idealized value congruence relationship that underlies previous theory and research. The authors' results also show that individual and organizational values exhibited small but significant relationships with job satisfaction and organizational identification that bypassed the mediators in their model, indicating that additional explanations of value congruence effects should be pursued in future research. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Value Representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Majken Kirkegaard; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2011-01-01

    Stereotypic presumptions about gender affect the design process, both in relation to how users are understood and how products are designed. As a way to decrease the influence of stereotypic presumptions in design process, we propose not to disregard the aspect of gender in the design process......, as the perspective brings valuable insights on different approaches to technology, but instead to view gender through a value lens. Contributing to this perspective, we have developed Value Representations as a design-oriented instrument for staging a reflective dialogue with users. Value Representations...

  12. The expected anisotropy in solid inflation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bartolo, Nicola; Ricciardone, Angelo [Dipartimento di Fisica e Astronomia ' ' G. Galilei' ' , Università degli Studi di Padova, via Marzolo 8, I-35131, Padova (Italy); Peloso, Marco; Unal, Caner, E-mail: nicola.bartolo@pd.infn.it, E-mail: peloso@physics.umn.edu, E-mail: angelo.ricciardone@pd.infn.it, E-mail: unal@physics.umn.edu [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, 116 Church Street S.E., Minneapolis 55455 (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Solid inflation is an effective field theory of inflation in which isotropy and homogeneity are accomplished via a specific combination of anisotropic sources (three scalar fields that individually break isotropy). This results in specific observational signatures that are not found in standard models of inflation: a non-trivial angular dependence for the squeezed bispectrum, and a possibly long period of anisotropic inflation (to drive inflation, the ''solid'' must be very insensitive to any deformation, and thus background anisotropies are very slowly erased). In this paper we compute the expected level of statistical anisotropy in the power spectrum of the curvature perturbations of this model. To do so, we account for the classical background values of the three scalar fields that are generated on large (superhorizon) scales during inflation via a random walk sum, as the perturbation modes leave the horizon. Such an anisotropy is unavoidably generated, even starting from perfectly isotropic classical initial conditions. The expected level of anisotropy is related to the duration of inflation and to the amplitude of the squeezed bispectrum. If this amplitude is close to its current observational limit (so that one of the most interesting predictions of the model can be observed in the near future), we find that a level of statistical anisotropy F{sup 2} gives frozen and scale invariant vector perturbations on superhorizon scales.

  13. Expectations and Experiences of Information Literacy Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saga Pohjola-Ahlin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In May 2016, 48 third semester undergraduate students enrolled in the physiotherapy program at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden were given three sets of questionnaires; before the information literacy instruction (ILI started, at the end of the first session, and a week after, at the end of the second and last session. The aim of this small-scale pilot study was to shed some light on students’ motivation to attend ILI, how they value the sessions afterwards and how they assess their learning outcome. Furthermore, it was an attempt to do a "students’ user experience study” in a pedagogical setting, with the intention to evaluate and improve teaching in ILI to meet student expectations. The average response rate for the three questionnaires was 92%. The results show that students’ expectations were similar to the actual content of ILI, and that the students were satisfied with their own learning outcome. Both motivation and the sense of relevance got higher scores after students attended ILI. Motivation rose from 7,4 to 8,12 out of 10. This is positive because a high level of motivation often improves the learning outcome (Schunk, 2012. When asked which areas most needed improvement in order to further enhance their learning outcome, the most common responses were “the pedagogy” and “my own achievement”. It would be interesting to start collaborating with a group of students in order to explore new methods and learning activities.

  14. Expectations and disappointments of industrial innovations

    CERN Document Server

    Halevi, Gideon

    2017-01-01

    The Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), Group Technology, Numerical Control, and Computer Aided Design (CAD) were four outstanding innovations that were one-time milestones of scientific industrial management. This book describes the expectations and disappointments of the common pitfalls of these ingenious ideas, which leads to understanding of their gradual disappearing, and proposes a way to restore these methods for long term utility and value. The first three innovations dominated the industry till the mid-1970s. Surprisingly, the reason for them being replaced is the same: research of the “routine” was misleading regardless of its ingenuity. In the fourth case, CAD does not support CAPP (Computer Aided Process Planning) and thus Numerical Control could no longer support developments of a system such as a flexible and automated factory. However, they incorporate many features in a specific resource instead within a manufacturing system. CAD technology and machining centers remain remarkable as a s...

  15. Trends in disability-free life expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perenboom, R. J. M.; van Herten, L. M.; Boshuizen, H. C.; van den Bos, G. A. M.

    2004-01-01

    Purpose: To assess trends in Disability-Free Life Expectancy, in life expectancy with disabilities according to levels of severity and in Disability-Adjusted Life Expectancy in the Netherlands between 1989 and 2000. Method: The disability-free life expectancy, a composite population health status

  16. Expectations of millennial nurse graduates transitioning into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Diane Randall

    2013-01-01

    Identified as Millennials, nurses born after 1980 are anticipated to redefine the employer-employee relationship as one based on the employee's wants and needs. The purpose of this study is to portray the expectations of Millennial student nurses immediately before graduation. Understanding these expectations may provide insight for leaders who are responsible for crafting a successful transition experience. Successful transition and decreased turnover are important elements of cost management for the nursing enterprise. A qualitative descriptive design was used to collect data from 14 students enrolled in a traditional BSN academic nursing program approximately 2 months prior to graduation. Upon completion of private, confidential semistructured interviews, data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed. Demographic data were compiled and interview data summarized according to identified themes. Three overarching themes emerged: the expectation that transition would be stressful, the expectation that there would be a safety net of support, and the expectation to be valued and respected as a professional. Revealing was the expectation of supportive relationships and a collaborative approach to patient care. Failure to meet those expectations may result in turnover as Millennials seek opportunities that meet their expectations.

  17. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  18. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  19. Expected behavior of quantum thermodynamic machines with prior information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, George; Johal, Ramandeep S

    2012-04-01

    We estimate the expected behavior of the quantum model of a heat engine when we have incomplete information about external macroscopic parameters such as the magnetic field controlling the intrinsic energy scales of the working medium. We explicitly derive the prior probability distribution for these unknown parameters ai (i=1,2). Based on a few simple assumptions, the prior probability distribution is found to be of the form Π(ai)∝1/ai. By calculating the expected values of various physical quantities related to this engine, we find that the expected behavior of the quantum model exhibits thermodynamiclike features. This leads us to a surprising proposal that incomplete information quantified as an appropriate prior distribution can lead us to expect classical thermodynamic behavior in quantum models.

  20. Development and Validation of the Outcome Expectations for Yoga Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thind, Herpreet; Sillice, Marie A; Fava, Joseph L; Lantini, Ryan; Horowitz, Santina; Jennings, Ernestine; Rosen, Rochelle K; Carmody, James; Becker, Bruce M; Marcus, Bess H; Bock, Beth C

    2017-11-01

    Our objective was to develop an instrument that can measure outcome expectations of yoga and to evaluate the instrument for internal consistency and initial construct validity. A 20-item scale was developed to assess physical, mental, and spiritual health benefits related to yoga practice among adults. The scale was tested in a baseline survey with adults participating in a clinical trial. Principal component analysis was used to investigate the internal structure of the measure. Outcome expectations for yoga were examined for demographic differences. The sample (N = 185) was 54% women, 89% white and had a mean age of 46 years. The final 20-item scale had high item loadings that ranged from .57 to .88 with a Cronbach's alpha value of .96. Significant differences were found in outcome expectation score by sex. This newly developed scale can be used to assess outcome expectations for yoga and tailor interventions to promote adherence to yoga practice.

  1. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy of Japan: the fastest graying society in the world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokudome, Shinkan; Hashimoto, Shuji; Igata, Akihiro

    2016-10-28

    We appraised time trends of Japanese life expectancy (LE) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) by gender, LE-HALE and (LE-HALE)/LE figures, along with the women-men's differences. Using the Japanese LE and HALE values from 1990 through 2013 by gender in the article by the GBD 2013 DALYs and HALE Collaborators, we examined trends of LE and HALE, and their 5- or 3-year changes. We also probed LE-HALE and (LE-HALE)/LE values, and the women-men's differences. LE consistently elongated as reported 76.0, 76.5, 77.6, 78.7, 79.3 and 80.1 years for men from 1990 to 2013; and 82.0, 82.8, 84.3, 85.5, 86.1 and 86.4 years for women, respectively. Both time trends demonstrated a significant linear increase (p for trend life and well-being.

  2. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gherai Dana Simona

    2011-12-01

    between level of knowledge of the students regarding the statements in audit and the expectation gap. Also there is a significant difference in perceptions of the role of the public auditor in respect of fraud detection. The research will be extended to other users of accounting information (accountants, executives, managers, bankers to see their understanding of the role of external public auditors, this we consider Originality/value – This paper adds evidence to the important debate about expectation gap from a region that has had little coverage. In Romania are just a few information regarding the importance of education in reducing the audit expectation gap in public area. We try to draw attention in two sectors that are left one side, education and public domain. A correlation between these two, in the context of audit expectation gap will give some answers absolutely necessary.

  3. [Regional life expectancy rankings : Methodological artefacts in population updates].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poppe, Franziska; Annuß, Rolf; Kuhn, Joseph

    2017-12-01

    For the calculation of life expectancy on a regional level, data from the mortality statistics and population numbers are needed. The latter are derived from population censuses, which have to be undertaken every 10 years according to the EU regulation No. 763/2008. In Germany, the last census took place in 2011 (Census 2011). The current population numbers are calculated on the basis of the most recent population census (population update). Births, deaths, immigration and migration, in addition to other data, are taken into account in this calculation. However, with passing time since the last census, inaccuracies in population updates may increase, which can affect the value of life expectancy calculations.Based on the comparison of life expectancy rankings, the impact and extent of changing over from the 1987 to the more recent 2011 census for regional comparisons were examined in two parts of Germany, Bavaria and North Rhine-Westphalia. As expected, the results show that larger changes in the calculated life expectancy result from larger changes in population statistics. However, noteworthy changes in life expectancy rankings do not necessarily follow larger changes in the population numbers. Regional life expectancy rankings are potentially always influenced by inaccuracies in the underlying population statistics. This should be taken into account when interpreting such small-scale differences.

  4. Faculty Expectations of Graduate Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartel, Richard W.

    When looking for a new student a few years ago, I considered an international student who wasn't available for me to interview personally—something I've come to require before I accept a student into my research group. After some preliminary discussion, I asked her my "behavioral" questions by email to give her an opportunity to provide me with some insight into her qualifications and character. I asked her to describe experiences where she had to resolve a conflict with someone else, where she had faced and overcome a hurdle, and to describe her motivation for graduate school. In her response, which started by noting a particular interaction she had had with her father, she presented me with a well-written documentary of her skills, into which her responses to my three questions were woven. Being the sort of person myself who would have bullet-pointed a response and detailed specific activities to document those skills, I was greatly impressed with her ability to think more broadly than my specific request, yet get at the heart of my questions in a creative approach. I accepted her as a student immediately because those are the attributes in a graduate student I value most highly.

  5. Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

  6. Hedge fund portfolio selection with modified expected shortfall

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudt, K.; Peterson, Brian G.; Carl, P.

    2008-01-01

    Modified Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are recently introduced downside risk estimators based on the Cornish-Fisher expansion for assets such as hedge funds whose returns are non-normally distributed. Modified VaR has been widely implemented as a portfolio selection criterion.We

  7. The price of portfolio selection under tail conditional expectation with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the ways of managing the risk that can arise from the changes in the relationship between assets and liabilities is by asset-liability management. Recently, Value-at-risk (VaR) and tail conditional expectation (TCE) have also emerged as standard tools for measuring and controlling the risk of trading portfolios.

  8. Entrepreneurial Identity and Role Expectations in Nascent Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundqvist, Mats; Middleton, Karen Williams; Nowell, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Entrepreneurship has been defined as an individual?new value creation dialogic. To study how entrepreneurial identity evolves, this article, drawing on entrepreneurial learning theory, adds an entrepreneurial role expectations dialogic. Longitudinal evidence from nascent entrepreneurs working in venture teams on invention disclosures offers an…

  9. Shared Value

    OpenAIRE

    Jensen, Mette; Kampmann, Hack; Nielsen, Michalis; Larsen, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    This project investigates the kind of value being presented when two seemingly different organisations - Red Bull and The Royal Theatre (Det Kongelige Teater) comes together to collaborate and present the Red Bull Cliff Diving 2015 series in Copenhagen in June 2015. The project draws on theories on Axiology, Experience Economy, Branding and Content Marketing, Culture Theory and Public Private Partnerships, all in relation to Theodor Adorno and Max Horkheimers’ theory of “Cultural Industry: En...

  10. 學生知覺教師期望、能力信念、實用價值與內在價值對臺灣八年級學生數理成就之影響:以TIMSS 2011 多層次結構方程式模型為例 Effects of Perception of Teachers’ Expectations, Ability Beliefs, Utility Values, and Intrinsic Values on Math and Science Achievement Among Eighth-Grade Students in Taiwan: A Multilevel Structural Equation Model Using TIMSS 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    陳敏瑜 Min-Yu Chen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available 本研究以期望價值理論為架構,進行國際數學與科學成就趨勢調查(TIMSS)2011 年臺灣八年級學生數學和科學成就之多層次結構方程式模型分析,瞭解學生層次(學生知覺教師期望、能力信念、實用價值、內在價值)及班級層次(班級知覺教師期望、班級能力信念、班級實用價值、班級內在價值)重要變項之影響力,並探究能力信念在學生知覺教師期望與數理成就之間的中介效果。本研究發現,學生層次和班級層次的模型結構並不相同,在學生層次的分析中,數學和科學的能力信念對學生學業成就的直接效果最大,而在數學與科學的班級層次分析中,班級能力信念皆對班級學業成就產生相當大的直接影響。此外,學生能力信念在學生知覺教師期望與數理成就之間扮演中介角色。最後依據研究結果提供建議,以供 實務應用及未來研究之參考。 On the basis of expectancy-value theory, multilevel structural equation models and trends in mathematics and science study 2011 data were applied to investigate the effects of the student-level variables (perception of teachers’ expectations, ability beliefs, utility values, and intrinsic values and their respective class-level variables on math and science achievement, and to test the mediation effect of ability belief between students’ perception of teachers’ expectations and the math and science achievements of eighth-grade students in Taiwan. The study revealed the following results: (1 The student-level and class-level structures exhibited differences. (2 At the student level, students’ ability belief had the strongest effect on their math and science achievement; the class level of ability belief had a positive effect on math and science achievement. (3 Ability belief had a significant mediating effect between the perception of teachers’ expectations and math

  11. Of Hope, Fear and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søgaard, Villy

    2011-01-01

    The study explores how gender and differences in preferences affect subjective expectations among a group of students.......The study explores how gender and differences in preferences affect subjective expectations among a group of students....

  12. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    2014-01-01

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  13. Experiments on expectations in macroeconomics and finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, T.; Bao, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.; Duffy, J.

    2014-01-01

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  14. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect During a Colonoscopy Prep. Sedation. Procedure. Post-Procedure. This new educational video for GI patients, produced by the ...

  15. Mortality hazard rates and life expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cramer, J.S.; Kaas, R.

    2013-01-01

    We consider the relation between mortality hazards and life expectancy for men and women in the Netherlands and in England. Halving the lifetime mortality hazards increases life expectancy at birth by only 9%.

  16. Health expectancy in Denmark, 1987-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2005-02-01

    While life expectancy quantifies average length of life, health expectancy represents the average lifetime in different health states and offers the possibility to evaluate quality of life with respect to health. The purpose of the study was to estimate changes in health expectancy in Denmark from 1987 to 2000 and to assess theories about the relation between increased total lifetime and lifetime in various health states. Data on health status derived from the Danish Health Interview Surveys carried out in 1987, 1991, 1994 and 2000 were combined with life-table data. Expected lifetime in selfrated good health, life expectancy without longstanding illness and disabilityfree life expectancy were estimated by Sullivan's method. In 1987, the life expectancy of a 65-year-old man was 14.1 years, 8.9 years of which were expected to be disabilityfree. In 2000, life expectancy had increased to 15.0 years, 11.3 years of which were disabilityfree. Thus, life expectancy had increased by 0.9 years, whereas disabilityfree life expectancy had increased by 2.4 years. Among 65-year-old women, life expectancy had increased by 0.2 years and disabilityfree life expectancy by 1.1 years. Expected lifetime in selfrated good health had also improved, but the trend in life expectancy without longstanding illness went in the opposite direction, and expected lifetime with longstanding illness had increased. The recent rise in life expectancy in Denmark after many years of stagnation appears to be accompanied by generally improved health status among the elderly, but health expectancy trends depend on the health indicator chosen. Health expectancy expresses average lifetime in various states of health. The study examines changes in expected lifetime in selfrated good health, lifetime without longstanding illness and lifetime without longterm disability. Among 65-year-olds the percentage of disabilityfree life expectancy increased from 63.4% to 74.9% for men and from 55.6% to 61.0% for women

  17. Essays on subjective expectations and mortality trends

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niu, G.

    2014-01-01

    This thesis consists of four chapters on two topics. The first topic, covered in chapter 2, 3, and 4, is about subjective expectations. Economists have long understood that expectations are important determinants of economic decisions. However, expectations are rarely observed. One way to overcome

  18. Do recovery expectations change over time?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamper, Steven J; Kongsted, Alice; Haanstra, Tsjitske M

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE: While a considerable body of research has explored the relationship between patient expectations and clinical outcomes, few studies investigate the extent to which patient expectations change over time. Further, the temporal relationship between expectations and symptoms is not well rese...

  19. Are Grade Expectations Rational? A Classroom Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hossain, Belayet; Tsigaris, Panagiotis

    2015-01-01

    This study examines students' expectations about their final grade. An attempt is made to determine whether students form expectations rationally. Expectations in economics, rational or otherwise, carry valuable information and have important implications in terms of both teaching effectiveness and the role of grades as an incentive structure for…

  20. Smoking expands expected lifetime with musculoskeletal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    By indirect estimation of mortality from smoking and life table methods we estimated expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases among never smokers, ex-smokers, and smokers. We found that although life expectancy of a heavy smoker is 7 years shorter than that of a never smoker, heavy...... smokers can expect to live more than 2 years longer with musculoskeletal diseases than never smokers....

  1. Contextual influences on alcohol expectancy processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Read, Jennifer P; Curtin, John J

    2007-09-01

    Context may differentially influence expectancy dimensions, in turn affecting drinking behavior. The present study examined alcohol cue and mood contextual influences on expectancy activation, controlling for more stable self-reported expectancy endorsement. We were particularly interested in the specific effects of negative mood on affect-relevant (tension reduction) expectancies. Regularly drinking undergraduates (N = 140; 64 female) underwent a mood (stress or neutral) induction procedure and then were presented with alcohol or nonalcohol beverage cues. Participants next completed a computerized expectancy response time task (ETASK), and self-report measures of drinking variables. Individual difference analyses generally replicated previous reports on the inverse relationship between alcohol involvement and ETASK response time. However, examination of contextual effects revealed a different pattern of ETASK responding. Participants exposed to alcohol cues were slower to respond to expectancy items than those in the nonalcohol cue condition. Mood and expectancy type moderated this effect; response time after alcohol cues slowed selectively for those in the stress mood condition and only for tension-reduction expectancy items. These data highlight the dimensionality of expectancies that comes into relief when contextual factors are considered. Expectancy response times index both facilitation, when examined in the context of drinking expertise, and interference, in response to motivationally relevant stimuli. Our data also support the specificity of contextual effects on those expectancies that are context relevant (i.e., mood). Further consideration of these contextual effects on dynamic expectancy processes may improve prediction of drinking behavior in real-world settings.

  2. Expected utility and catastrophic consumption risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ikefuji, M.; Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R.; Muris, C.

    2015-01-01

    An expected utility based cost-benefit analysis is, in general, fragile to distributional assumptions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions on the utility function of consumption in the expected utility model to avoid this. The conditions ensure that expected (marginal) utility of

  3. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  4. Conditioning 'fullness expectations' in a novel dessert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Laura L; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

    2009-06-01

    Calorie-for-calorie, foods differ considerably in the extent to which they are expected to deliver satiation. We sought to demonstrate that flavour-nutrient learning modifies these expectations. On day 1, participants (N=56) tasted a novel dessert and then completed a measure of expected satiation. Participants then consumed either a low (228 kcal) or high (568 kcal) energy-dense dessert (sensory characteristics matched). On day 2, expected satiation was assessed and then intake was measured using an intermediate energy-dense dessert. Expected satiation did increase but only in the high energy-dense condition (17.4%). This difference was not reflected in a measure of intake.

  5. Expectation Formation and Monetary DSGE Models: Beyond the Rational Expectations Paradigm

    OpenAIRE

    Fabio Milani; Ashish Rajbhandari

    2012-01-01

    Empirical work in macroeconomics almost universally relies on the hypothesis of rational expectations. This paper departs from the literature by considering a variety of alternative expectations formation models. We study the econometric properties of a popular New Keynesian monetary DSGE model under different expectational assumptions: the benchmark case of rational expectations, rational expectations extended to allow for `news' about future shocks, near-rational expectations and learning, ...

  6. Expectant versus aggressive management in severe preeclampsia remote from term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarsam, D S; Shamden, M; Al Wazan, R

    2008-09-01

    Our study aims to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes between expectant (or conservative) and aggressive (or immediate) management in cases with severe preclampsia remote from term. This is a comparative study conducted at Al-Batool Teaching Hospital in Mosul City, Iraq, from April 2003 to August 2004. A total of 74 singleton pregnancies complicated by severe preeclampsia with gestational age of 24-34 weeks were studied during this period. The criteria used for the diagnosis of severe preeclampsia were in accordance with the guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. All the patients were counselled for expectant management. 39 patients were delivered immediately due to refusal of expectant management either by the patient or the attending physician. The other 35 patients were managed expectantly; this group was followed-up and carefully monitored for a period ranging from 72 hours to 18 days. Neonatal parameters, neonatal outcome and maternal outcome were compared between the two groups. The mean value of pregnancy prolongation was 9.2 days. Median gestational age for the first group was 29 weeks, and for the second group, it was 30 weeks. Regarding neonatal parameters, the expectantly-managed group had a higher Apgar score at one minute (3.56 +/- 1.72 vs. 5.05 +/- 1.77, p-value equals 0.001), lower mean days of hospitalisation in the neonatal intensive care unit (6.83 +/- 5.38 vs. 4.50 +/- 3.46, p-value equals 0.03), with a lower incidence of neonatal and maternal complications. Expectant management is recommended in patients with severe preeclampsia remote from term, after proper selection of patients and careful monitoring.

  7. Fair Value or Market Value?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Cosmin Gomoi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When taking into consideration the issue of defining the “fair value” concept, those less experimented in the area often fall in the “price trap”, which is considered as an equivalent of the fair value of financial structures. This valuation basis appears as a consequence of the trial to provide an “accurate image” by the financial statements and, also, as an opportunity for the premises offered by the activity continuing principle. The specialized literature generates ample controversies regarding the “fair value” concept and the “market value” concept. The paper aims to debate this issue, taking into account various opinions.

  8. CLIENT EXPECTATION FROM RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY DESIGN SERVICES AND ARCHITECTS’ PERCEPTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OLUWATAYO Adedapo Adewunmi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Very few studies exist on the expectations of clients from architects. There are however, anecdotal evidences that architects may not fully grasp what is most important to their clients. As a pilot study, the aim of this paper was to investigate the expectations of clients from residential design services and architects’ perceptions of those expectations. A questionnaire was designed to suit the purpose of comparison of responses of the two groups.  The factor analysis conducted revealed that the expectations from design services could be described in terms of value, professionalism, and empathy. Using mean gap analysis, the study identified areas where architects have under-estimated the expectations of clients as well as those areas where the expectations have been over-estimated. The results would help architects to focus on areas, which are important to the clients and possibly reduce client dissatisfaction. This is study, which is one of the first on the subject, is limited in three ways. First, residential clients were the only ones considered. In addition, respondents were only taken from Nigeria and the sample size as well as the response rate was small.

  9. Subjective and objective effects of coffee consumption - caffeine or expectations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dömötör, Zs; Szemerszky, R; Köteles, F

    2015-03-01

    Impact of 5 mg/kg caffeine, chance of receiving caffeine (stimulus expectancies), and expectations of effects of caffeine (response expectancies) on objective (heart rate (HR), systolic/diastolic blood pressure (SBP/DBP), measures of heart rate variability (HRV), and reaction time (RT)) and subjective variables were investigated in a double-blind, placebo-controlled experiment with a no-treatment group. Participants were 107 undergraduate university students (mean age 22.3 ± 3.96 years). Consumption of 5 mg/kg caffeine had an impact on participants' SBP, standard deviation of normal heartbeat intervals, HR (decrease), and subjective experience 40 minutes later even after controlling for respective baseline values, stimulus and response expectancies, and habitual caffeine consumption. No effects on DBP, high frequency component of HRV, the ratio of low- and high-frequency, and RT were found. Beyond actual caffeine intake, response expectancy score was also a determinant of subjective experience which refers to a placebo component in the total effect. Actual autonomic (SBP, HR) changes and somatosensory amplification tendency, however, had no significant impact on subjective experience. Placebo reaction plays a role in the subjective changes caused by caffeine consumption but it has no impact on objective variables. Conditional vs deceptive administration of caffeine (i.e. stimulus expectancies) had no impact on any assessed variable.

  10. Education: A Core Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, William F., Jr.

    2001-09-01

    Teaching our Children. ACS should develop an intensive course in modern teaching methods, challenges and responsibilities, and press for streamlined teacher certification procedures for advanced degree or life experience chemists. Teaching our Future Colleagues. As President I will encourage companies to make scientists with special skills available to universities, and will encourage universities to utilize these scientists to round out areas of study not covered by their existing faculty. Teaching our Members. ACS should develop functional and management-related courses for scientists to facilitate career advancement from the bench to research management or from science to business. Teaching the Public. The President is the most visible representative of the Society, and should devote significant time to communication with lay audiences. Value Matters. My first priority as President will be to increase value creation, communication and quantification so members can easily identify programs that fill their needs and exceed their expectations.

  11. Decolonization and life expectancy in the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verstraeten, Soraya P A; van Oers, Hans A M; Mackenbach, Johan P

    2016-12-01

    Decolonization has brought political independence to half the Caribbean states in the last half of the 20th century, while the other states remain affiliated. Previous studies suggested a beneficial impact of affiliated status on population health, which may be mediated by more favorable economic development. We assessed how disparities in life expectancy between currently sovereign and affiliated states developed over time, whether decolonization coincided with changes in life expectancy, and whether decolonization coincided with similar changes in GDP per capita. Time-series data on life expectancy and related variables, GDP per capita and political status were collected from harmonized databases. We quantified variations in life expectancy by current political status during the 1950-2010 period. We assessed whether decolonization coincided with life expectancy trend changes by: 1. calculating the annual changes before and after independence, and 2. evaluating trend breaks in a predefined period during decolonization using joinpoint analyses. Similar analyses were undertaken for GDP per capita. Life expectancy in currently sovereign Caribbean states was already lower than in affiliated states before political independence. Overall, decolonization coincided with reductions in life expectancy growth, but not with reductions in economic growth, and changes in life expectancy growth in the decade after independence did not correspond with changes in economic performance. The widening of the life expectancy gap between currently sovereign and affiliated states accelerated in the 1990's and continues to increase. Despite considerable life expectancy gains in all Caribbean states, life expectancy in currently sovereign states increasingly lags behind that of states which remained affiliated. Our results indicate that changing economic conditions were not the main determinant of the unfavorable trends in life expectancy during and after decolonization. Circumstantial

  12. Valuing vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärnighausen, Till; Bloom, David E.; Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T.; O’Brien, Jennifer Carroll

    2014-01-01

    Vaccination has led to remarkable health gains over the last century. However, large coverage gaps remain, which will require significant financial resources and political will to address. In recent years, a compelling line of inquiry has established the economic benefits of health, at both the individual and aggregate levels. Most existing economic evaluations of particular health interventions fail to account for this new research, leading to potentially sizable undervaluation of those interventions. In line with this new research, we set forth a framework for conceptualizing the full benefits of vaccination, including avoided medical care costs, outcome-related productivity gains, behavior-related productivity gains, community health externalities, community economic externalities, and the value of risk reduction and pure health gains. We also review literature highlighting the magnitude of these sources of benefit for different vaccinations. Finally, we outline the steps that need to be taken to implement a broad-approach economic evaluation and discuss the implications of this work for research, policy, and resource allocation for vaccine development and delivery. PMID:25136129

  13. Prediction Interval: What to Expect When You're Expecting … A Replication.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey R Spence

    Full Text Available A challenge when interpreting replications is determining whether the results of a replication "successfully" replicate the original study. Looking for consistency between two studies is challenging because individual studies are susceptible to many sources of error that can cause study results to deviate from each other and the population effect in unpredictable directions and magnitudes. In the current paper, we derive methods to compute a prediction interval, a range of results that can be expected in a replication due to chance (i.e., sampling error, for means and commonly used indexes of effect size: correlations and d-values. The prediction interval is calculable based on objective study characteristics (i.e., effect size of the original study and sample sizes of the original study and planned replication even when sample sizes across studies are unequal. The prediction interval provides an a priori method for assessing if the difference between an original and replication result is consistent with what can be expected due to sample error alone. We provide open-source software tools that allow researchers, reviewers, replicators, and editors to easily calculate prediction intervals.

  14. Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

  15. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  16. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  17. Stakeholder expectations : conceptual foundations and empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Olkkonen, Laura

    2015-01-01

    Expectations are an inseparable part of interaction, whether in interpersonal, intragroup, or organization–stakeholder relations. As a concept, expectations appear frequently in the public relations literature, yet definitions are scarce or narrow. This thesis contributes to the conceptual and empirical understanding of expectations in the context of organization–stakeholder relations and, more specifically, studies how organizations translate their societal roles and how st...

  18. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  19. Expectation Formation of Older Married Couples and the Rational Expectations Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Hugo Benítez-Silva; Debra S. Dwyer

    2003-01-01

    This paper tests the Rational Expectations (RE) hypothesis regarding retirement expectations of married older American couples, controlling for sample selection and reporting biases. In prior research we found that individual retirement expectation formation was consistent with the Rational Expectation hypothesis, but in that work spousal considerations were not analyzed. In this research we take advantage of panel data on expectations to test the RE hypothesis among married individuals as we...

  20. Users’ Quality Expectations in Conference Interpreting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Amini

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of an unpublished doctoral thesis on “Conference Interpreting in Malaysia”. Expectations of users were explored by an on-site questionnaire-based survey study in Malaysian conference interpreting setting. The relative importance of various linguistic and non-linguistic criteria for quality was obtained through quantitative and qualitative methods of data collection. A reliable sample of 256 interpreting “users” (Cronbach alpha coefficient=0.81 were collected from five international conferences in Malaysia. Analysis of the results revealed that users attached high value to the linguistic criteria of sense-consistency with original message (94.1%, logical cohesion (91.1%, fluency of delivery (91%, correct terminology (89.8%, correct grammar (82.8%, completeness of interpretation (80.2%, synchronicity (73%, and style (70.5% rating the criteria very important or important. The parameters of pleasant voice (60.9%, lively intonation (60.4%, and native accent (57.3% were considered desirable, but not essential as they received the least importance by the users. Findings from the open-ended questions showed that users consider “wide range of topics” and “broadening one’s horizons” as the most interesting aspects of conference interpreting. Users indicated that they were willing to listen to the interpretation even if they understood it. These suggest that interpreters are seen as a professional source of knowledge from users’ perspectives. While stressing on the linguistic aspects and the importance of output-related quality criteria, the researcher calls for taking further notice of situational particularities and background variables, pragmatic communication issues, and contextual features with a more extensive view of the profession, in addition to the methodological issues that have always been argued in interpreting quality research.

  1. VALUE ADDED IN A LOGISTICS CENTER

    OpenAIRE

    Beata Skowron-Grabowska

    2010-01-01

    In the paper, the author has shown possibilities of creating added value in logistics centre from the theoretical point of view. Value creation in the supply literature commonly builds on the added value models One of such possibilities is preparing hierarchical model of creating added value through prediction of customers’ and enterprises’ in supply chain expectations. Another possibility pointed in the paper is creation of added value due to building special department of transportation and...

  2. Expectations as a key element in trusting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette Apollo; Hansen, Uffe Kjærgaard; Conradsen, Maria Bosse

    Considering the need for a tangible focus for qualitative research on trusting, we propose that expectations to the behavior of others can provide that. By focusing on expectations, researchers can produce narrative descriptions that explains how trusting develops and changes. Then the key theore...

  3. Expectations and Ideas Coming to School.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graue, M. Elizabeth

    1993-01-01

    Describes the social construction of parental expectations for kindergarten and first grade in a school community. Focuses on the ideas developed between home and school and between grade levels. Connections are made between these local ideas and the expectations of children as they begin their school careers. (Author)

  4. Patient expectancy and post-chemotherapy nausea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colagiuri, Ben; Zachariae, Robert

    2010-01-01

    , specifically controlling for a history of nausea, and involving breast cancer patients, none of the moderators assessed were statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that patient expectancies may contribute to post-chemotherapy nausea and that expectancy-based manipulations may provide...

  5. The Expectant Reader in Theory and Practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Lois Josephs; McCormick, Kathleen

    1986-01-01

    Offers a method of using reader response theory that emphasizes the expectations about a text and how those expectations are fulfilled or deflated. Specifically, students read traditional fables, fairy tales, and parables, and compare them to contemporary works such as Kafka's "Metamorphosis" and Marquez's "The Very Old Man With Enormous Wings."…

  6. Dissonant Feedback about Achievement and Teachers' Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bognar, Carl J.

    1982-01-01

    Investigates impact of achievement test results (N=285) on 13 sixth-grade teachers' expectations using hypotheses from cognitive dissonance theory. Shows teacher expectations changed very little as a result of feedback, and test results for both under- and overestimated students were rejected. (AH)

  7. International Variations in Measuring Customer Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Philip J.

    2001-01-01

    Discussion of customer expectations of library service quality and SERVQUAL as a measurement tool focuses on two studies: one that compared a survey of Chinese university students' expectations of service quality to New Zealand students; and one that investigated national culture as a source of attitudes to customer service. (Author/LRW)

  8. Heterogeneity in consumers' income and pension expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bissonnette, L.; van Soest, Arthur

    2015-01-01

    The expectations of economic agents play a crucial role in almost any inter-temporal economic model. Using 2009–12 panel data for a representative sample of the Dutch population, we analyze consumers’ income and pension expectations. We focus on heterogeneity across socioeconomic groups and

  9. Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, P.R.; Peer, S.; Dekker, T.

    2015-01-01

    Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is

  10. Experimental evidence on inflation expectation formation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pfajfar, D.; Zakelj, B.

    Using laboratory experiments within a New Keynesian sticky price framework, we study the process of inflation expectation formation. We focus on adaptive learning and rational expectations contrary to the previous literature that mostly studied simple heuristics. Using a test for rational

  11. Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, T.; Hommes, C.H.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.

    2012-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback can have a large impact on whether the market can learn the rational fundamental price. We present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks. Markets with negative expectation

  12. Teaching Rational Expectations at 'A' Level.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beachill, Bob

    1987-01-01

    Explains the economic concept of Rational Expectations (RE) and demonstrates how it can be introduced to British 'A' level students. Illustrates the implications of RE for the Cobweb and Augmented Phillips Curve market models. Outlines some attractions and limitations of rational expectations. (Author/DH)

  13. Individual expectations, limited rationality and aggregate outcomes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bao, T.; Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent studies suggest that the type of strategic environment or expectation feedback may have a large impact on whether the market learns the rational fundamental price. We present an experiment where the fundamental price experiences large unexpected shocks. Markets with negative expectation

  14. Expectancy violations promote learning in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, Aimee E; Feigenson, Lisa

    2017-06-01

    Children, including infants, have expectations about the world around them, and produce reliable responses when these expectations are violated. However, little is known about how such expectancy violations affect subsequent cognition. Here we tested the hypothesis that violations of expectation enhance children's learning. In four experiments we compared 3- to 6-year-old children's ability to learn novel words in situations that defied versus accorded with their core knowledge of object behavior. In Experiments 1 and 2 we taught children novel words following one of two types of events. One event violated expectations about the spatiotemporal or featural properties of objects (e.g., an object appeared to magically change locations). The other event was almost identical, but did not violate expectations (e.g., an object was visibly moved from one location to another). In both experiments we found that children robustly learned when taught after the surprising event, but not following the expected event. In Experiment 3 we ruled out two alternative explanations for our results. Finally, in Experiment 4, we asked whether surprise affects children's learning in a targeted or a diffuse way. We found that surprise only enhanced children's learning about the entity that had behaved surprisingly, and not about unrelated objects. Together, these experiments show that core knowledge - and violations of expectations generated by core knowledge - shapes new learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Expectancy and Phobic Level: Effects on Desensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Bernard J.; Denney, Douglas R.

    1977-01-01

    Expectancy instructions were introduced six times during the four-week treatment, and effectiveness of these instructions was demonstrated with independent nonreactive measures of subjects' expectancies. An analysis of self-report, behavioral, and unobtrusive measures of snake anxiety revealed significant main effects for instructions, with…

  16. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  17. Expectation of recovery from low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Vach, Werner; Axø, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Study Design. A prospective cohort study conducted in general practice (GP) and chiropractic practice (CP).Objectives. To explore which patient characteristics were associated with recovery expectations in low back pain (LBP) patients, whether expectations predicted 3-month outcome, and to what...

  18. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  19. Trends in Life Expectancy in Wellbeing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perenboom, R. J. M.; Van Herten, L. M.; Boshuizen, H. C.; Van Den Bos, G. A. M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: This paper describes and discusses trends in life expectancy in wellbeing between 1989 and 1998. Methods: Data on wellbeing by the Bradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained from the Netherlands Continuous Health Interview Surveys for the calendar years from 1989 to 1998. Using Sullivan's method, life expectancy in wellbeing is…

  20. Incorporating life expectancy in glaucoma care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wesselink, C.; Stoutenbeek, R.; Jansonius, N. M.

    2011-01-01

    Aim To calculate for which combinations of age and perimetric disease stage glaucoma patients are unlikely to become visually impaired during their lifetime. Methods We used residual life expectancy data (life expectancy adjusted for the age already reached) as provided by Statistics Netherlands and

  1. On Expectations, Realizations and Partial Retirement

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mastrogiacomo, Mauro

    2004-01-01

    This study investigates whether many people fear an unexpectedshock in their financial situation around retirement and whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are

  2. Job Expectations of Senior Nursing Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burton, C. Emory; Burton, Dorothy T.

    1982-01-01

    A study was conducted of new nurses' job expectations. Most graduates anticipated full-time work on the day shift in a medium-sized or large hospital. Major job expectations included a good salary, pleasant working conditions, and the opportunity to work a desired shift in a desired specialty. (CT)

  3. Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweri, Juerg; Hartog, Joop; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2011-01-01

    We use a unique data set about the wage distribution that Swiss students expect for themselves ex ante, deriving parametric and non-parametric measures to capture expected wage risk. These wage risk measures are unfettered by heterogeneity which handicapped the use of actual market wage dispersion as risk measure in earlier studies. Students in…

  4. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... the Communications Team at 301-263-9000 or e-mail mediaonly@gi.org . Stay Informed Join ACG Press List Check out the ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What to Expect ...

  5. Smoking expands expected lifetime with musculoskeletal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    By indirect estimation of mortality from smoking and life table methods we estimated expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases among never smokers, ex-smokers, and smokers. We found that although life expectancy of a heavy smoker is 7 years shorter than that of a never smoker, heavy...

  6. The College President: Expectations, Realities, and Myths.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kauffman, Joseph F.; Walker, Donald E.

    Two speeches are presented: Expectations and Realities for the College President, by Joseph Kauffman, and Myths of the College Presidency, by Donald E. Walker. The first discusses the discrepancies between the expectations and realities in three areas: the relationship with boards of trustees, relations with central administration in the state…

  7. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojtkowiak, Joanna; Wild, Verena; Egger, Jos

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142 bereaved participants completed the Grief…

  8. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wojtkowiak, J.; Wild, V.; Egger, J.I.M.

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142

  9. Users’ expectations of public library services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanja Borko

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Public libraries are used by a wide range of users. Therefore they should offer as many different services as possible. The proper introduction of library services to the users can be monitored by measuring their expectations. The article represents the services, which public libraries should offer to their users, definition of the expectation and which factors influence forming the expectations. 60 users were interviewed in two public libraries. The purpose of research was to find out how expectation differs from public library service offer. The results show that most users expect traditional library services such as free access to books, loaning books, giving information over the phone, reading rooms and inter-library loan; furthermore, most users expect library consultancy and advisory services, access to the Internet, public library website, on-line library catalog and services for the youngest members of the library. Fewer users expect guided tour of the library and information on cultural events in the city. Very few users expect modern services, such as provision of electronic publications, courses or lectures for using the Internet and other electronic sources, special courses, such as how to write a scientific research, and services for leisure and recreation, such as organized trips, and fun activities, such as arranging flowers, painting, sawing, etc.

  10. Expectations towards home care re-ablement in Danish municipalities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fersch, Barbara

    2015-01-01

    to be grounded in economic reasons. However, a second, moral argument was found revolving around the older peoples’ activity,which contributes to the establishment of moral expectations towards frail older people to be active. Research limitations/implications – As the goal of the study was to analyse......Purpose – Re-abling care of frail older people is highly on the agenda in several countries.The purpose of this paper is to have a closer look at the argumentation used for its establishment by local policy actors in the field and the kind of expectations towards the behaviour of frail older people...... understandings and values of key local actors, the implementation of re-ablement programmes and the users’ perspective were not studied. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the investigation of the shift from universal entitlementas a right to towards market rationalities in Danish elder care....

  11. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schoen, Robert; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir

    2005-01-01

    Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure......, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE), to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate...... of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL) has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure...

  12. Do fair value adjustments influence dividend policy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goncharov, I.; van Triest, S.

    2011-01-01

    We examine the impact of positive fair value adjustments on dividend policy. If fair value adjustments are transitory in nature and managers are able to assess their implications for future earnings, fair value adjustments in net income is expected to have no distribution consequences. However,

  13. INDIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES Scientific Values: Ethical ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    vedamurthy

    Preamble. Most professional bodies such as societies, associations, and academies expect their members to follow the highest ethical values in the conduct of their professional work. These values are based on universal moral principles like honesty, truthfulness, and fairness. For each profession, these values get ...

  14. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Great expectations: teaching ethics to medical students in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Kevin Gary; Fellingham, Robyn

    2014-12-01

    Many academic philosophers and ethicists are appointed to teach ethics to medical students. We explore exactly what this task entails. In South Africa the Health Professions Council's curriculum for training medical practitioners requires not only that students be taught to apply ethical theory to issues and be made aware of the legal and regulatory requirements of their profession, it also expects moral formation and the inculcation of professional virtue in students. We explore whether such expectations are reasonable. We defend the claim that physicians ought to be persons of virtuous character, on the grounds of the social contract between society and the profession. We further argue that since the expectations of virtue of health care professionals are reasonable, it is also sound reasoning to expect ethics teachers to try to inculcate such virtues in their students, so far as this is possible. Furthermore, this requires of such teachers that they be suitable role models of ethical practice and virtue, themselves. We claim that this applies to ethics teachers who are themselves not members of the medical profession, too, even though they are not bound by the same social contract as doctors. We conclude that those who accept employment as teachers of ethics to medical students, where as part of their contractual obligation they are expected to inculcate moral values in their students, ought to be prepared to accept their responsibility to be professionally ethical, themselves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Enhanced striatal responses during expectancy coding in alcohol dependence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Holst, Ruth J; Clark, Luke; Veltman, Dick J; van den Brink, Wim; Goudriaan, Anna E

    2014-09-01

    Individuals with alcohol dependence are known to make disadvantageous decisions, possibly caused by alterations in either reward or punishment sensitivity, which lead to persistent alcohol use despite its adverse consequences. Previous studies in alcohol dependence have mainly focused on reward anticipation processing and results from these studies are mixed. To clarify the nature of the motivational deficit that underlies disadvantageous choice in alcohol dependence, the current study sought to characterize the neural representation of expected value in individuals with alcohol dependence, separating expectancy-related processing of gains and losses, as a function of outcome magnitude and outcome probability. Functional MRI was used to examine brain responses during the expectation of gains and losses in patients with alcohol dependence (n=19) and healthy controls (n=19). The task manipulated outcome magnitude (€1 and €5) and outcome probability (30% and 70%). Compared to healthy controls, patients with alcohol dependence were more responsive to the expectancy of large wins, in the caudate and putamen. This effect was driven by a higher caudate activity in the contrast comparing €5 vs. €1 trials in patients with alcohol dependence. There were no group differences in the responses to the expectancy for loss. The patient group reported lower expectancies of winning in the trial-by-trial ratings. Patients with alcohol dependence showed caudate hyperactivity when expecting wins. The result contrasts with past work using the monetary incentive delay task, showing caudate hypoactivity; the passive nature of our task contrasts with an active response requirement in the MIDT studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Development and Validation of the Expectations of Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Naraghi

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundThere is a growing concern in the field of aesthetic surgery about the need to measure patients' expectations preoperatively. The present study was designed to develop and validate the Expectations of Aesthetic Rhinoplasty Scale (EARS, and to compare expectations between rhinoplasty patients with and without body dysmorphic disorder (BDD.MethodsIn total, 162 college students and 20 rhinoplasty candidates were recruited. The measures included the newly developed EARS, a measure of psychopathology, and demographics. The DSM-IV structured clinical interview for BDD was used to confirm the diagnosis in rhinoplasty patients.ResultsThe EARS was constructed of six items based on their significant content validity. In the scale development phase, Cronbach's alpha was 0.87. The test-retest reliability coefficient of the scale was satisfactory (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.82–0.98 over a four-week period. Scores on the EARS were significantly positively correlated with psychopathological symptoms (r=0.16; P<0.05. Moreover, comparison of EARS scores between BDD (M=25.90, standard deviation [SD]=6.91 and non-BDD rhinoplastic patients (M=15.70, SD=5.27 suggested that BDD patients held significantly higher expectations (P<0.01.ConclusionsThe expectations of aesthetic rhinoplasty patients toward surgery may play a crucial role in their postoperative satisfaction. While the value of patients' expectations is clinically recognized, no empirical study has measured these expectations in a psychometrically sound manner. The current study developed and validated the EARS. It may be easily used as a valid and reliable instrument in clinical and research settings.

  18. Subjective Life Expectancy Among College Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodemann, Alyssa E; Arigo, Danielle

    2017-09-14

    Establishing healthy habits in college is important for long-term health. Despite existing health promotion efforts, many college students fail to meet recommendations for behaviors such as healthy eating and exercise, which may be due to low perceived risk for health problems. The goals of this study were to examine: (1) the accuracy of life expectancy predictions, (2) potential individual differences in accuracy (i.e., gender and conscientiousness), and (3) potential change in accuracy after inducing awareness of current health behaviors. College students from a small northeastern university completed an electronic survey, including demographics, initial predictions of their life expectancy, and their recent health behaviors. At the end of the survey, participants were asked to predict their life expectancy a second time. Their health data were then submitted to a validated online algorithm to generate calculated life expectancy. Participants significantly overestimated their initial life expectancy, and neither gender nor conscientiousness was related to the accuracy of these predictions. Further, subjective life expectancy decreased from initial to final predictions. These findings suggest that life expectancy perceptions present a unique-and potentially modifiable-psychological process that could influence college students' self-care.

  19. Patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, Renske; Bos, Annemieke; Hoogstraten, Johan

    2009-12-01

    To investigate the expectations of children and their primary care-givers towards orthodontic treatment and to compare the results with those of a UK sample. A questionnaire survey of children and their primary care-givers attending for their first consultation. The Department of Orthodontics at the Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), the Netherlands. A total of 168 subjects (84 patients and 84 parents) completed the questionnaire. The children were aged 10 to 14 years. The responses of the children and parents and differences between boys and girls were examined using parametric statistical methods. The data from the Dutch sample were compared with a similar UK sample. Patients and parents shared similar expectations of orthodontic treatment, with the exception of expectations of having a brace fitted at the first appointment, orthodontic treatment involving headgear, any problems with orthodontic treatment, duration of orthodontic treatment and concerning reactions from the public. Among the child participants, boys and girls only differed in their expectations of orthodontic treatment involving jaw surgery. Differences between Dutch and English participants were found regarding the first visit, type of orthodontic treatment, reactions from the public, and pain and problems with orthodontic treatment. Since the expectations of patients and their parents differ on several aspects, effective communication between the orthodontist, patient and parent is considered to be essential. Our hypothesis that Dutch patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment differ from the expectations of English patients and parents was supported.

  20. Patient/parent expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obilade, Omolara Abiodun; da Costa, Oluranti Olatokunbo; Sanu, Oluwatosin Oluyemi

    2017-03-01

    Expectations of orthodontic treatment may differ between the patient and their parents, as the parents' expectations may not reflect those of the child. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine the expectations of patients and their parents. This was a clinic-based, comparative, cross-sectional study involving 110 patients aged between 10 and 19 years, as well as their accompanying parents or guardians. The expectations of both patients and parents were determined using a questionnaire developed by Sayers and Newton. Results showed that the expectations of the patients and parents differed significantly in a number of areas with the parents' expectations often exceeding those of the patients. Both patients and parents were found to be ignorant about some aspects of orthodontic treatment, with 47.3% of patients and 39.1% of parents unaware of the duration of orthodontic treatment and, as such, requiring information from their clinicians. The results highlight the importance of patient education and counseling as well as the need to focus on the individual patient and not assume that their expectations mirror those of the accompanying parent. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  1. Expectation (and attention) in visual cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summerfield, Christopher; Egner, Tobias

    2009-09-01

    Visual cognition is limited by computational capacity, because the brain can process only a fraction of the visual sensorium in detail, and by the inherent ambiguity of the information entering the visual system. Two mechanisms mitigate these burdens: attention prioritizes stimulus processing on the basis of motivational relevance, and expectations constrain visual interpretation on the basis of prior likelihood. Of the two, attention has been extensively investigated while expectation has been relatively neglected. Here, we review recent work that has begun to delineate a neurobiology of visual expectation, and contrast the findings with those of the attention literature, to explore how these two central influences on visual perception overlap, differ and interact.

  2. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion...... of expected business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  3. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected...... business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  4. The Probability Model of Expectation Disconfirmation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Hsin HUANG

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probability model to explore the dynamic process of customer’s satisfaction. Bases on expectation disconfirmation theory, the satisfaction is constructed with customer’s expectation before buying behavior and the perceived performance after purchase. The experiment method is designed to measure expectation disconfirmation effects and we also use the collection data to estimate the overall satisfaction and model calibration. The results show good fitness between the model and the real data. This model has application for business marketing areas in order to manage relationship satisfaction.

  5. The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

    Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

  6. Teachers' expectations of teacher-student interaction : Complementary and distinctive expectancy patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, R. J.; van Tartwijk, J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/112629385; Verloop, N.; Veldman, I.; Wubbels, T.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/070651361

    2012-01-01

    In this study it is investigated what student responses teachers expect in particular teacher behaviour vignettes, and whether experience and gender produce differences in expectations. Teacher behaviour vignettes were presented to teachers (N = 46), who described the student responses they

  7. The value of reputation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pfeiffer, Thomas; Tran, Lily; Krumme, Coco; Rand, David G

    2012-11-07

    Reputation plays a central role in human societies. Empirical and theoretical work indicates that a good reputation is valuable in that it increases one's expected payoff in the future. Here, we explore a game that couples a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma (PD), in which participants can earn and can benefit from a good reputation, with a market in which reputation can be bought and sold. This game allows us to investigate how the trading of reputation affects cooperation in the PD, and how participants assess the value of having a good reputation. We find that depending on how the game is set up, trading can have a positive or a negative effect on the overall frequency of cooperation. Moreover, we show that the more valuable a good reputation is in the PD, the higher the price at which it is traded in the market. Our findings have important implications for the use of reputation systems in practice.

  8. Stock returns, macroeconomic variables and expectations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lúcio Linck; Roberto Frota Decourt

    2016-01-01

    ... returns in Brazil from 2000 to 2010. The study investigates the causality relationships among real stock returns, basic interest rates, GDP, ination and the market expectation of future behavior of these macroeconomic variables...

  9. What to Expect during Heart Surgery

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... problems with the heart's function and valves. Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is a ... To Expect After Heart Surgery Recovery in the Hospital You may spend a day or more in ...

  10. Anesthesia -- What to Expect (For Teens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Help? Talking to Your Parents - or Other Adults Anesthesia - What to Expect KidsHealth > For Teens > Anesthesia - What ... the Operating Room After Surgery Different Kinds of Anesthesia If you're having any kind of procedure ...

  11. A SEMIOLOGIC APPROACH TO AUDIT EXPECTATIONS GAP

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ciolpan Daniela

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Audit expectations gap (AEG is one of the most debated phenomena animating the international scientific research scene. The volume of papers focused on defining the AEG concept, examining its determinants, implications, and mechanisms to minimize the gap

  12. Why did Danish women's life expectancy stagnate?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Oeppen, James; Rizzi, Silvia

    2016-01-01

    The general health status of a population changes over time, generally in a positive direction. Some generations experience more unfavourable conditions than others. The health of Danish women in the interwar generations is an example of such a phenomenon. The stagnation in their life expectancy...... between 1977 and 1995 is thought to be related to their smoking behaviour. So far, no study has measured the absolute effect of smoking on the mortality of the interwar generations of Danish women and thus the stagnation in Danish women's life expectancy. We applied a method to estimate age......-specific smoking-attributable number of deaths to examine the effect of smoking on the trends in partial life expectancy of Danish women between age 50 and 85 from 1950 to 2012. We compared these trends to those for women in Sweden, where there was no similar stagnation in life expectancy. When smoking...

  13. Remaining Life Expectancy With and Without Polypharmacy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wastesson, Jonas W; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To investigate the remaining life expectancy with and without polypharmacy for Swedish women and men aged 65 years and older. DESIGN: Age-specific prevalence of polypharmacy from the nationwide Swedish Prescribed Drug Register (SPDR) combined with life tables from Statistics Sweden...... was used to calculate the survival function and remaining life expectancy with and without polypharmacy according to the Sullivan method. SETTING: Nationwide register-based study. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1,347,564 individuals aged 65 years and older who had been prescribed and dispensed a drug from July 1...... to September 30, 2008. MEASUREMENTS: Polypharmacy was defined as the concurrent use of 5 or more drugs. RESULTS: At age 65 years, approximately 8 years of the 20 remaining years of life (41%) can be expected to be lived with polypharmacy. More than half of the remaining life expectancy will be spent...

  14. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational ... ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  15. Adolescent Perceptions of Stress and Future Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cybelle Bezerra Sousa Florêncio

    Full Text Available Abstract: Adolescence has been described as a developmental phase marked by challenges, tensions, and uncertainties that can generate stress and lower adolescents' future expectations. This study aims to describe adolescent perceptions of stress and future expectations.It is a mixed-methods study of 17 high school students, selected from a sample of 295 adolescents, aged 14 to 18 years, who are pupils in a private school system in the metropolitan region of Belém do Pará. The Stress Scale for Adolescents was used, in addition to focus groups. The results indicated higher stress levels in female adolescents. The participants who had no stress hadgood family relationships and well-defined future expectations. However, the adolescents who had stress associated their family context with stressors and had no expectations for the future.

  16. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Check out the ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During ... PATIENT CENTER SAP-MOC SELF-ASSESSMENT TEST ACG @Twitter ACG Blog About ACG ACG Store American College ...

  17. What To Expect During Pulmonary Rehabilitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... NHLBI on Twitter. What To Expect During Pulmonary Rehabilitation Pulmonary rehabilitation (PR) can have many parts, and not all ... your endurance and muscle strength, so you're better able to carry out daily activities. The plan ...

  18. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Awards The ACG Institute for Clinical Research & Education supports clinical gastroenterology research and faculty development awards each ... ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  19. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Xian; Lu, Hong

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To explore the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents during their transition to parenthood. Methods: A cross-sectional descriptive survey was used through the Chinese version of the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. A total of 240 expectant parents were recruited when they were admitted to the obstetric units waiting for delivery at a large Maternal and Child Health care Center in Beijing, and 210 couples completed the questionnaires, yielding a response rate o...

  20. Evolution of non-expected utility preferences

    CERN Document Server

    Widekind, Sven von; Fandel, G

    2008-01-01

    The theory on the evolution of preferences deals with the endogenous formation of preference relations in strategic situations. It is related to the field of evolutionary game theory. In this book we analyze the role and the influence of general, possibly non-expected utility preferences in such an evolutionary setup. In particular, we demonstrate that preferences which diverge from von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility may potentially prove to be successful under evolutionary pressures.

  1. Student Expectations in the New Millennium

    OpenAIRE

    Wan, Yee-Tak

    2006-01-01

    Higher education has experienced vast changes as a result of global political and economic developments. Cultural and social changes in the last decade have also added to the continuing evolution of higher education. These changes inevitably lead to changing expectations of students entering higher education. An adequate understanding of student expectations is crucial in ensuring a good fit between higher educational institutions and their students. This study attempts to carry out a bas...

  2. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  3. Converting customer expectations into achievable results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, G A

    1999-11-01

    It is not enough in today's environment to just meet customers' expectations--we must exceed them. Therefore, one must learn what constitutes expectations. These needs have expanded during the past few years from just manufacturing the product and looking at the outcome from a provincial standpoint. Now we must understand and satisfy the entire supply chain. To manage this process and satisfy the customer, the process now involves the supplier, the manufacturer, and the entire distribution system.

  4. Life expectancy after the first suicide attempt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jokinen, J; Talbäck, M; Feychting, M; Ahlbom, A; Ljung, R

    2017-12-14

    To assess excess mortality among suicide attempters compared to the general population. Remaining life expectancy was calculated for a nationwide cohort of all 187 894 persons 18 years or older hospitalised for the first time attempted suicide in Sweden in 1971-2010. Life expectancy was shortened throughout the lifespan for both men and women debuting with suicide attempt. The reduction in life expectancy for men debuting with a suicide attempt at 20 years of age was 18 years while the reduction for men debuting at 50 years of age was 10 years. For women attempting suicide, the life expectancy was shortened by 11 and 8 years respectively. The gender difference in life expectancy attenuated in patients making their first suicide attempt at age 70 years or older. Suicide deaths explained about 20% of the total mortality within 10 years of the suicide attempt and 5% in those with duration of four decades since the first suicide attempt. The life expectancy is dramatically reduced in patients attempting suicide. With most excess deaths being due to physical health conditions, public efforts should be directed both towards improving physical health and to prevent suicide. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Taxation and life expectancy in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagger, P J

    2004-06-01

    With the exception of Denmark, life expectancy in Western Europe has shown a significant increase over the last decades. During that period of time overall taxation has increased in most of the countries, especially in Denmark. We, therefore, examined whether taxation could influence life expectancy in Western Europe. We used information on the sum of income tax and employees' social contribution in percentage of gross wage earnings from the OECD database and data on disability adjusted life expectancy at birth from the World Health Organization database. We arbitrarily only included countries with populations in excess of 4 millions and thereby excluded smaller countries where tax exemption is part of the national monetary policy. We found that disability adjusted life expectancy at birth was inversely correlated to the total tax burden in Western Europe. We speculate whether a threshold exists where high taxes exert a negative influence on life expectancy despite increased welfare spending. The study suggests that tax burden should be considered among the multiple factors influencing life expectancy.

  6. Gender differences in negative reinforcement smoking expectancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Raina D; Zvolensky, Michael J; Schmidt, Norman B; Leventhal, Adam M

    2015-06-01

    Previous research suggests that females may be more motivated to smoke for negative reinforcement (NR) than males. However, it remains unclear whether gender differences in smoking outcome expectancies for negative smoking reinforcement-an important theoretical and clinical target defined as beliefs that smoking alleviates negative affect-exist above and beyond gender differences in depression and/or other outcome expectancies. Relations between gender and negative smoking reinforcement expectancies were examined in two independent samples. Sample 1 consisted of non-treatment seeking daily smokers (Male n = 188; Female n = 91) recruited from Southern California (49.5% Black, 32.2% Caucasian, and 18.3% other race/ethnicity). Sample 2 consisted of treatment seeking daily smokers (Male n = 257; Female n = 237) in Northern Florida and Vermont (10.7% Black, 82.9% Caucasian, and 6.4% other). Females (vs. males) reported stronger NR smoking expectancies with and without statistically controlling for nicotine dependence, other smoking expectancies, and anxiety and depression in both samples (βs = .06 to .14, ps = .06 to gender-specific etiological process disproportionately prominent in women. Enhancing ability to cope with negative affect without smoking or challenge NR expectancies may be particularly important for cessation treatment in women. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Dynamic emotion perception and prior expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzafic, Ilvana; Martin, Andrew K; Hocking, Julia; Mowry, Bryan; Burianová, Hana

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions require the ability to rapidly perceive emotion from various incoming dynamic, multisensory cues. Prior expectations reduce incoming emotional information and direct attention to cues that are aligned with what is expected. Studies to date have investigated the prior expectancy effect using static emotional images, despite the fact that dynamic stimuli would represent greater ecological validity. The objective of the study was to create a novel functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm to examine the influence of prior expectations on naturalistic emotion perception. For this purpose, we developed a dynamic emotion perception task, which consisted of audio-visual videos that carry emotional information congruent or incongruent with prior expectations. The results show that emotional congruency was associated with activity in prefrontal regions, amygdala, and putamen, whereas emotional incongruency was associated with activity in temporoparietal junction and mid-cingulate gyrus. Supported by the behavioural results, our findings suggest that prior expectations are reinforced after repeated experience and learning, whereas unexpected emotions may rely on fast change detection processes. The results from the current study are compatible with the notion that the ability to automatically detect unexpected changes in complex dynamic environments allows for adaptive behaviours in potentially advantageous or threatening situations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. The acceptability, personal outcome expectations, and expected effects of transport pricing policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schuitema, G.; Steg, L.; Rothengatter, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Acceptability and personal outcome expectations (le the extent to which one expects to be better or worse off) of transport pricing policies were examined in relation to the expected effects of these policies on one s own car use congestion and environmental problems Car users who commuted

  9. The polyphony of values and the value of polyphony

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Thøger CHRISTENSEN

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available While human communication is inherently symbolic and thus potentially vague, ambiguous and polyphonic, there is a growing emphasis on certainty, accuracy and consistency in everything contemporary organizations say and do. Organizational messages about corporate values, in particular, are expected to accurately and unambiguously depict the organizational sender “behind” the words. Current communication principles, in other words, seek to reduce or eliminate the polyphonic potential of symbolic communication. In this paper we challenge this trend, arguing that the polyphony of corporate values is valuable because it facilitates change by inviting alternative interpretations and stimulating participation and critique. Lack of accuracy in organizational messages – including inconsistencies between what organizations say and what they do – may be an important driver of organizational and social change, because such differences have potential to raise expectations and apply pressure on organizational actors to improve their practices.

  10. Women's needs and expectations during normal labor and delivery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iravani, Mina; Zarean, Elahe; Janghorbani, Mohsen; Bahrami, Masod

    2015-01-01

    Pregnancy and birth are unique processes for women. Women and families hold different expectation during childbearing based on their knowledge, experiences, belief systems, culture, and social and family backgrounds. These differences should be understood and respected, and care is adapted and organized to meet the individualized needs of women and families. The purpose of this study was to explore Iranian parturient needs, values and preferences during normal labor and delivery. An exploratory qualitative study was used. Twenty-four parturient women from three governmental medical training centers in Isfahan, Iran were recruited using purposive sampling. Participants were recruited to low-risk women after they had given birth, but before they were discharged from hospital. Data were collected through semi-structured in-depth interviews, informal observations and field notes. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and analyzed by the conventional content analysis according to Graneheim and Lundman approach. Women's needs and expectations fell into seven main categories: Physiological, psychological, informational, social and relational, esteem, security and medical needs. All of the key needs in these data relates to a fundamental need, named "sense of control and empowerment in childbirth." Knowing a woman's needs, values, preferences and expectations during normal labor and delivery assists healthcare professionals especially midwives in providing high-quality care to parturient women.

  11. Educational status and active life expectancy among older blacks and whites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guralnik, J M; Land, K C; Blazer, D; Fillenbaum, G G; Branch, L G

    1993-07-08

    Persons of low socioeconomic status are known to have reduced life expectancy. In a study of the relation of socioeconomic status to disability-free or active life expectancy among older persons, we analyzed prospectively gathered data on 2219 blacks and 1838 whites who were 65 years of age or older in the Piedmont region of North Carolina. We defined disability as the inability to perform independently one or more basic functional activities such as walking, bathing, dressing, eating, and using the toilet. For subgroups defined by sex, race, and education, statistical models were used to estimate, for persons at each year of age, the probability of transition from not being disabled or being disabled at base line to not being disabled, being disabled, or having died one year later. These transition probabilities were then entered into increment-decrement life tables to generate estimates of total, active, and disabled life expectancy (with total life expectancy equal to active life expectancy plus disabled life expectancy). Sixty-five-year-old black men had a lower total life expectancy (11.4 years) and active life expectancy (10 years) than white men (total life expectancy, 12.6 years; active life expectancy, 11.2 years), although the differences were reduced after we controlled for education. The estimates for 65-year-old black women (total life expectancy, 18.7 years; active life expectancy, 15.9 years) were similar to those for white women. Black men and women 75 years old and older had higher values for total life expectancy and active life expectancy than whites, and the differences were larger after stratification for education. Education had a substantially stronger relation to total life expectancy and active life expectancy than did race. At the age of 65, those with 12 or more years of education had an active life expectancy that was 2.4 to 3.9 years longer than the values for those with less education in all the four subgroups defined by sex and race

  12. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  13. The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

  14. Child Characteristics and Parental Educational Expectations: Evidence for Transmission with Transaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briley, Daniel A.; Harden, K. Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M.

    2014-01-01

    Parents' expectations for their children's ultimate educational attainment have been hypothesized to play an instrumental role in socializing academically relevant child behaviors, beliefs, and abilities. In addition to social transmission of educationally relevant values from parents to children, parental expectations and child…

  15. Life Expectancy and Human Capital Investments: Evidence from Maternal Mortality Declines. NBER Working Paper No. 13947

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayachandran, Seema; Lleras-Muney, Adriana

    2008-01-01

    Longer life expectancy should encourage human capital accumulation, since a longer time horizon increases the value of investments that pay out over time. Previous work has been unable to determine the empirical importance of this life-expectancy effect due to the difficulty of isolating it from other effects of health on education. We examine a…

  16. The Polyphony of Values and the Value of Polyphony

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars Thøger; Morsing, Mette; Thyssen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    because it facilitates change by inviting alternative interpretations and stimulating participation and critique. Lack of accuracy in organizational messages – including inconsistencies between what organizations say and what they do – may be an important driver of organizational and social change......While human communication is inherently symbolic and thus potentially vague, ambiguous and polyphonic, there is a growing emphasis on certainty, accuracy and consistency in everything contemporary organizations say and do. Organizational messages about corporate values, in particular, are expected...

  17. The relationship of life expectancy to the development and valuation of life care plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, Steven M; Reynolds, Robert J; Kush, Scott J

    2015-01-01

    A life care plan often analyzes needs up to a person's life expectancy. Expected present value of necessary funding for such a plan is likewise based on the fixed survival time. If a client should live beyond or die before the life expectancy, a shortfall or excess of funding may seem inevitable. The life table, of which life expectancy is a summary measure, clarifies these issues. We explain life expectancy and how it is used in tort litigation, economic calculations, and life care planning. We examine the life table, of which life expectancy is one output. We illustrate how a life table provides age-specific probabilities of death and survival, life expectancies, and median survival times, and other information and that every life expectancy must be associated with a life table. We consider the implications for life care planners, forensic economists, and others. Life expectancy is a summary of more detailed information provided in a life table. The full life table provides better information for planning purposes. Whether life expectancy or a full life table should be used in developing and valuing a life care plan is not well understood. A multi-disciplinary approach may help clarify these issues.

  18. An Expectancy-Value Model for Sustained Enrolment Intentions of Senior Secondary Physics Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abraham, Jessy; Barker, Katrina

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the predictive influences of achievement motivational variables that may sustain students' engagement in physics and influence their future enrolment plans in the subject. Unlike most studies attempting to address the decline of physics enrolments through capturing students' intention to enrol in physics before ever…

  19. Efficient Calculation of Energy Expectation Values in the Path Integral Formalism

    CERN Document Server

    Grujic, J

    2006-01-01

    The path integral formalism, originally introduced by Richard Feynman, represents a powerful general framework for dealing with quantum and statistical theories, as well as an extremely useful tool in many other areas of science. Their numerical integration, however, is notoriously demanding of computer time and it is one of the most challenging computational problems.

  20. Theory-Driven Intervention for Changing Personality: Expectancy Value Theory, Behavioral Activation, and Conscientiousness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magidson, Jessica F.; Roberts, Brent W.; Collado-Rodriguez, Anahi; Lejuez, C. W.

    2014-01-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that personality traits may be changeable, raising the possibility that personality traits most linked to health problems can be modified with intervention. A growing body of research suggests that problematic personality traits may be altered with behavioral intervention using a bottom-up approach. That is, by…

  1. Upper Bounds on the Expected Value of a Convex Function Using Gradient and Conjugate Function Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1987-08-01

    of the absolute difference between the random variable and its mean.Gassmann and Ziemba 119861 provide a weaker bound that does not require...2.8284, and EX4tV) -12 EX’iX) = -42. Hence C = -2 -€t* i-4’]= I-- . 1213. £1 2 5 COMPARISONS OF BOUNDS IN IIn Gassmann and Ziemba 11986) extend an idea...solution of the foLLowing Linear program: (see Gassmann, Ziemba (1986),Theorem 1) m m m-GZ=max(XT(vi) I: z. 1=1,Z vo=x io (5.1hk i-l i=i i=1 I I where 0

  2. Losing Its Expected Communal Value: How Stereotype Threat Undermines Women's Identity as Research Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jessi L.; Brown, Elizabeth R.; Thoman, Dustin B.; Deemer, Eric D.

    2015-01-01

    The worry or concern over confirming negative gender group stereotypes, called stereotype threat, is one explanation for women's worldwide underrepresentation in undergraduate science classes and majors. But how does stereotype threat translate into fewer women motivated for science? In this quantitative study with a sample from the US, we use…

  3. Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: An Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

    2017-01-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through…

  4. Math-Gender Stereotypes and Career Intentions: An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Jingjing; Zuo, Bin; Wen, Fangfang; Yan, Lei

    2017-01-01

    Exposure to negative math-gender stereotypes undermines the intentions of female college students to engage in careers in the math field, yet the mechanisms by which such stereotypes relate to girls' career intentions remain unclear. We simultaneously tested multiple mediators in a sample of 186 female students from one high school in central…

  5. Double impact of sterilizing pathogens: added value of increased life expectancy on pest control effectiveness

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Berec, Luděk; Maxin, D.

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 7 (2012), s. 1281-1311 ISSN 0303-6812 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50070508 Keywords : SI model * invasive species * infectious disease Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.366, year: 2012 http://www.springerlink.com/content/l23658193512644n/fulltext.pdf

  6. Exploring K-3 Teachers' Implementation of Comprehension Strategy Instruction (CSI) Using Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foley, Laura S.

    2011-01-01

    This research investigated factors that influence the implementation levels of evidence-based comprehension strategy instruction (CSI) among K-3 teachers. An explanatory design was chosen to gather and probe the data. Quantitative data were gathered via a mailed survey distributed through a representative sample of the 40 school districts (through…

  7. An Interview with Allan Wigfield: A Giant on Research on Expectancy Value, Motivation, and Reading Achievement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bembenutty, Hefer

    2012-01-01

    This article presents an interview with Allan Wigfield, professor and chair of the Department of Human Development and distinguished scholar-teacher at the University of Maryland. He has authored more than 100 peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters on children's motivation and other topics. He is a fellow of Division 15 (Educational…

  8. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    Through explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the yield curve, this research proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that surv...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations......Through explicitly incorporating analysts' forecasts as observable factors in a dynamic arbitrage-free model of the yield curve, this research proposes a framework for studying the impact of shifts in market sentiment on interest rates of all maturities. An empirical examination reveals that survey...... expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...

  9. Major League Baseball Players’ Life Expectancies*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saint Onge, Jarron M.; Rogers, Richard G.; Krueger, Patrick M.

    2009-01-01

    Objective We examine the importance of anthropometric and performance measures, and age, period, and cohort effects in explaining life expectancies among major league baseball (MLB) players over the past century. Methods We use discrete time hazard models to calculate life tables with covariates with data from Total Baseball, a rich source of information on all players who played in the major league. Results Compared to 20-year-old U.S. males, MLB players can expect almost five additional years of life. Height, weight, handedness, and player ratings are unassociated with the risk of death in this population of highly active and successful adults. Career length is inversely associated with the risk of death, likely because those who play longer gain additional incomes, physical fitness, and training. Conclusions Our results indicate improvements in life expectancies with time for all age groups and indicate possible improvements in longevity in the general U.S. population. PMID:19756205

  10. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    a decrease in prices through managers that anticipated the drop in demand and proactively lower selling prices and cut resources. Moreover, this study provides evidence for the moderating effect of managerial forecast accuracy on the relationship between demand uncertainty and cost elasticity. Findings show......This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... compared to unexpected demand shocks. The association is tested using the empirical concept of cost stickiness. Cost stickiness arises as a consequence of asymmetric resource or price adjustments. Resource and price adjustments are termed asymmetric if the magnitude of change is different for increases...

  11. Great expectations. Eating expectancies as mediators of reinforcement sensitivity and eating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hennegan, Julie M; Loxton, Natalie J; Mattar, Ameerah

    2013-12-01

    Eating expectancies are proposed as cognitive pathways linking reinforcement (reward and punishment) sensitivities and the tendency to over-eat in response to appetitive and emotional cues. In Study One (N=243 university women) explicit eating expectancies were tested as potential mediators of reinforcement sensitivities and eating styles. Broadly, expectancies that eating alleviates negative affect/boredom mediated both reward and punishment sensitivity and emotional eating. The expectancy that eating is pleasurable and rewarding mediated reward sensitivity and external eating. In Study Two (N=109), using an implicit eating expectancy task, reward sensitivity and external eating was mediated via positive expectancy statements, notably, that eating is pleasurable and rewarding. Reward sensitivity and emotional eating was mediated specifically by expectancies that eating manages boredom. Punishment sensitivity was not associated with any implicit expectancies. Findings support the role of expectancies as cognitive mediators in the relationship between reinforcement sensitivities and emotionally-driven versus externally-driven eating styles. However, the largely appetitive implicit expectancies task only supported an association with reward sensitivity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. On Time with Minimal Expected Cost!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    David, Alexandre; Jensen, Peter Gjøl; Larsen, Kim Guldstrand

    2014-01-01

    ) timed game essentially defines an infinite-state Markov (reward) decision proces. In this setting the objective is classically to find a strategy that will minimize the expected reachability cost, but with no guarantees on worst-case behaviour. In this paper, we provide efficient methods for computing...... reachability strategies that will both ensure worst case time-bounds as well as provide (near-) minimal expected cost. Our method extends the synthesis algorithms of the synthesis tool Uppaal-Tiga with suitable adapted reinforcement learning techniques, that exhibits several orders of magnitude improvements w...

  13. Subtle changes in the flavour and texture of a drink enhance expectations of satiety

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McCrickerd Keri

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The consumption of liquid calories has been implicated in the development of obesity and weight gain. Energy-containing drinks are often reported to have a weak satiety value: one explanation for this is that because of their fluid texture they are not expected to have much nutritional value. It is important to consider what features of these drinks can be manipulated to enhance their expected satiety value. Two studies investigated the perception of subtle changes in a drink’s viscosity, and the extent to which thick texture and creamy flavour contribute to the generation of satiety expectations. Participants in the first study rated the sensory characteristics of 16 fruit yogurt drinks of increasing viscosity. In study two, a new set of participants evaluated eight versions of the fruit yogurt drink, which varied in thick texture, creamy flavour and energy content, for sensory and hedonic characteristics and satiety expectations. Results In study one, participants were able to perceive small changes in drink viscosity that were strongly related to the actual viscosity of the drinks. In study two, the thick versions of the drink were expected to be more filling and have a greater expected satiety value, independent of the drink’s actual energy content. A creamy flavour enhanced the extent to which the drink was expected to be filling, but did not affect its expected satiety. Conclusions These results indicate that subtle manipulations of texture and creamy flavour can increase expectations that a fruit yogurt drink will be filling and suppress hunger, irrespective of the drink’s energy content. A thicker texture enhanced expectations of satiety to a greater extent than a creamier flavour, and may be one way to improve the anticipated satiating value of energy-containing beverages.

  14. Sentiment of Search: KM and IT for User Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berndt, Sarah Ann; Meza, David

    2014-01-01

    User perceived value is the number one indicator of a successful implementation of KM and IT collaborations. The system known as "Search" requires more strategy and workflow that a mere data dump or ungoverned infrastructure can provide. Monitoring of user sentiment can be a driver for providing objective measures of success and justifying changes to the user interface. The dynamic nature of information technology makes traditional usability metrics difficult to identify, yet easy to argue against. There is little disagreement, however, on the criticality of adapting to user needs and expectations. The Systems Usability Scale (SUS), developed by John Brook in 1986 has become an industry standard for usability engineering. The first phase of a modified SUS, polls the sentiment of representative users of the JSC Search system. This information can be used to correlate user determined value with types of information sought and how the system is (or is not) meeting expectations. Sentiment analysis by way of the SUS assists an organization in identification and prioritization of the KM and IT variables impacting user perceived value. A secondary, user group focused analysis is the topic of additional work that demonstrates the impact of specific changes dictated by user sentiment.

  15. College for some to college for all: social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyette, Kimberly A

    2008-06-01

    The educational expectations of 10th-graders have dramatically increased from 1980 to 2002. Their rise is attributable in part to the changing educational composition of students' parents and related to the educational profiles of their expected occupations. Students whose parents have gone to college are more likely to attend college themselves, and students expect occupations that are more prestigious in 2002 than in 1980. The educational requirements of particular occupation categories have risen only slightly. These analyses also reveal that educational expectations in recent cohorts are more loosely linked to social background and occupational plans than they were in 1980. The declining importance of parents' background and the decoupling of educational and occupational plans, in addition to a strong and significant effect of cohort on educational expectations, suggest that the expectation of four-year college attainment is indeed becoming the norm.

  16. [Male life expectancy and prolongation of life expectancy were lowest in small towns in Japan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, S

    1996-12-01

    The relationship between size of population and life expectancy of residents was investigated in 652 cities in Japan, using municipal life tables for 1985 and 1990. The following findings were seen: 1) Population size and life expectancy Life expectancy of males at age 0, 20 and 40 was lowest in small towns with a population less than 30,000 (except for age 40 in 1985), and highest in cities with a population of 70,000-199,999 in 1985 and 1990. Life expectancy of females at age 0, 20, 40 and 65 did not significantly vary with size of population in 1985 and 1990. 2) Population size and prolongation of life expectancy (1985-1990) Life expectancy was prolonged in males by 1.02, 0.88, 0.86 and 0.66 years at age 0, 20, 40 and 65, respectively. The prolongation of life expectancy of males at age 0, 20 and 40 was smallest in small towns with a population less than 30,000. Life expectancy was prolonged in females by 1.41, 1.32, 1.29 and 1.12 years at age 0, 20, 40 and 65, respectively. The prolongation of life expectancy was shortest at birth for females who lived in cities with a population of 50,000-59,999. 3) Socioeconomic factors and prolongation of life expectancy The prolongation of life expectancy of males was related to the entrance rate for high school and inversely related to the unemployment rate. The prolongation of life expectancy of females was not related to any of the socioeconomic factors studied.

  17. Expected performance of the ATLAS Inner Tracker

    CERN Document Server

    Viel, Simon; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    These slides present the expected tracking performance of the ATLAS Inner Tracker, based on the latest available public results (scoping document). More recent layout designs currently under consideration are also shown. The extended inner pixel barrel concept is discussed in more detail, along with test beam results demonstrating the proof-of-principle.

  18. High Performance Expectations: Concept and causes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Lotte Bøgh; Jacobsen, Christian Bøtcher

    2017-01-01

    literature research, HPE is defined as the degree to which leaders succeed in expressing ambitious expectations to their employees’ achievement of given performance criteria, and it is analyzed how leadership behavior affects employee-perceived HPE. This study applies a large-scale leadership field...

  19. Highway user expectations for ITD winter maintenance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Providing a high Level of Service (LOS) to ensure the safety and mobility for the traveling public is a key objective for winter : maintenance operations. The goal of this research was to obtain a better understanding of Idaho highway users expect...

  20. 5 CFR 470.301 - Program expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ....301 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERSONNEL... project plan must include a research design which contains: (1) Measurable goals or objectives; (2) Acceptable expected results or outcomes; (3) A description of the procedures, methods and techniques to be...

  1. Sex and Helping: Expectations and Attributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deaux, Kay

    In an attempt to view more clearly the literature on altruism as differentiated by sex, the paper suggests consideration of more basic characteristics of male and female behavior in terms of past learning and present expectations, rather than solely in terms of society's general set of normative beliefs about the behaviors which are appropriate…

  2. Labour market expectation of Nigerian computer science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study is to assess the effect of Nigerian Universities' curricula on the performance of Computer Science graduates. This paper looks into the strength and weaknesses of Computer Science graduates in Nigeria with a view to assess if they meet the labour market expectation. It also x-rays the women ...

  3. Demystify Learning Expectations to Address Grade Inflation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodges, Linda C.

    2014-01-01

    This article describes the subject of "grade inflation," a reference to educators giving higher grades to student work than their expectations for student achievement warrant. Of the many reasons why this practice happens, Hodges specifically discusses inflating grades as "a natural consequence" when the faculty really…

  4. Matching Expectations for Successful University Student Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paull, Megan; Omari, Maryam; MacCallum, Judith; Young, Susan; Walker, Gabrielle; Holmes, Kirsten; Haski-Leventha, Debbie; Scott, Rowena

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of expectation formation and matching for university student volunteers and their hosts. Design/methodology/approach: This research involved a multi-stage data collection process including interviews with student volunteers, and university and host representatives from six…

  5. Solving Rational Expectations Models Using Excel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strulik, Holger

    2004-01-01

    Simple problems of discrete-time optimal control can be solved using a standard spreadsheet software. The employed-solution method of backward iteration is intuitively understandable, does not require any programming skills, and is easy to implement so that it is suitable for classroom exercises with rational-expectations models. The author…

  6. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  7. Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.

    2008-01-01

    We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most

  8. Pregnant women's beliefs, expectations and experiences of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Patient's expectations included discovering fetal position, fetal sex and pregnancy problems. However, women frequently over-estimated the capacity of ultrasound, and had significant fears of harm. One sixth of questionnaire respondents said they did not want ultrasonography. Nonetheless since the service was ...

  9. Developing Convergent Expectations in Slovenia's Secession War

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bruijne, Karsten

    2011-01-01

    This chapter stresses the strategic similarities decision makers continue to face when embarking on the path of war: they develop similar expectations about the outcome of a war as it unfolds. The bargaining model of war posits that a Bayesian process of learning and the process of screening explain

  10. Parents' Expectations about Early Years Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollars, Valerie

    2017-01-01

    This exploratory study was conducted amongst 518 families using early years facilities within the Maltese context. Although availability of early years services, especially for the under-threes has increased substantially, there is a lack of research documenting who uses these services; parents' perceptions and expectations about such services;…

  11. Starting School: The Importance of Parents' Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Fran

    2005-01-01

    Following the diagnosis of a child's disability parents can find that their expectations are shattered. As they adjust to their new situation they will begin to develop new ideas of what the future will hold. Supporting families is a key theme in current government policy, hence the development of the Early Support Programme. In this paper Fran…

  12. Post-Secondary Expectations and Educational Attainment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sciarra, Daniel T.; Ambrosino, Katherine E.

    2011-01-01

    This study utilized student, teacher, and parent expectations during high school to analyze their predictive effect on post-secondary education status two years after scheduled graduation. The sample included 5,353 students, parents and teachers who participated in the Educational Longitudinal Study (ELS; 2002-2006). The researchers analyzed data…

  13. Trends in life expectancy in wellbeing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perenboom, R. J. M.; van Herten, L. M.; Boshuizen, H. C.; van den Bos, G. A. M.

    2004-01-01

    Objectives: This paper describes and discusses trends in life expectancy in wellbeing between 1989 and 1998. Methods: Data on wellbeing by the Bradburn Affect Balance Scale is obtained from the Netherlands Continuous Health Interview Surveys for the calendar years from 1989 to 1998. Using Sullivan's

  14. Dutch life expectancy from an international perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Bodegom, D.; Bonneux, L.G.A.; Engelaer, F.M.; Lindenberg, J.; Meij, J.J.; Westendorp, R.G.J.

    2010-01-01

    In general, longer life spans go with longer lives with good quality. Abstention from smoking is an obvious target to get more out of our lives. The ability to better manage chronic diseases is a first step of progress. Life expectancy, disability and quality of life are distinct concepts and may

  15. Parental Expectations about Adapted Physical Education Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaapel, Holly; Columna, Luis; Lytle, Rebecca; Bailey, JoEllen

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to characterize the expectations of parents of children with disabilities regarding adapted physical education services. Participants ("N" = 10) were parents of children with disabilities. Parents participated in one-on-one semistructured interviews. Transcripts were analyzed through a constant comparative…

  16. Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

    2011-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...

  17. Observed and Expected Mortality in Cohort Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richardson, David B; Keil, Alexander P; Cole, Stephen R; MacLehose, Richard F

    2017-03-15

    Epidemiologists often compare the observed number of deaths in a cohort with the expected number of deaths, obtained by multiplying person-time accrued in the cohort by mortality rates for a reference population (ideally, a reference that represents the mortality rate in the cohort in the absence of exposure). However, if exposure is hazardous (or salutary), this calculation will not consistently estimate the number of deaths expected in the absence of exposure because exposure will have affected the distribution of person-time observed in the study cohort. While problems with interpretation of this standard calculation of expected counts were discussed more than 2 decades ago, these discussions had little impact on epidemiologic practice. The logic of counterfactuals may help clarify this topic as we revisit these issues. In this paper, we describe a simple way to consistently estimate the expected number of deaths in such settings, and we illustrate the approach using data from a cohort study of mortality among underground miners. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. International Student Expectations: Career Opportunities and Employability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nilsson, Per A.; Ripmeester, Nannette

    2016-01-01

    Are mobile students expecting an international experience to have an impact on their career? This was one of the questions in a global survey, with over 150,000 respondents. The survey results showed that the transition from education to the world of work is of increasing importance for students. How to find a job upon graduation is apparently a…

  19. Messianic expectations in the Old Testament

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Rose

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available The New Testament is connected to the Old Testament in a number of different ways. It is not unusual to find the word “messianic” used to categorise all the different ways in which the writers of the New Testament find Christ (and, similarly, Jewish sources of the Second Temple Period later find the future Messiah in the Old Testament, or to identify the specific passages in the Old Testament which are now seen to point to Christ/the Messiah. In this article I argue that, if one wants to be able to appreciate the diversity, one should abandon this indiscriminate use of the word “messianic”. After a brief discussion of the meaning and use of the Hebrew word xyvm in the Old Testament, I propose a definition of the phrase “messianic expectations” (expectations focusing on a future royal figure sent by God – someone who will bring salvation to God’s people and the world and establish a kingdom characterised by features such as peace and justice. Subsequently, the origin of these expectations is located as in the proclamation of the eighth-century prophets (Amos, Isaiah and Micah. Finally, one special category of messianic expectations, that is, messianic expectations in the Books of the Psalms, is dealt with.

  20. Gendered Expectations for Leadership in Libraries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Olin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available In Brief Despite significant gains in representation at the administration level, there is still a disparity between the percentage of women in our profession and women as library leaders. Additionally, even when women attain leadership roles, even top positions in libraries, there are still hurdles in the shape of gendered expectations. This article examines the […

  1. Expect Delays: Procrastination and the Graduate Student

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Theo Finigan

    2008-01-01

    ...Expect Delays: Procrastination and the Graduate Student Theo Finigan University of Alberta M       , in a sense, with an act...

  2. Multiple Equilibria in Noisy Rational Expectations Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Palvolgyi, Domotor; Venter, Gyuri

    This paper studies equilibrium uniqueness in standard noisy rational expectations economies with asymmetric or differential information a la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980). We show that the standard linear equilibrium of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is the unique equilibrium...

  3. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational programs, or ... and the latest clinical science. Whether you are working on a consumer health story, an article for healthcare ... Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  4. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational programs, or ... and the latest clinical science. Whether you are working on a consumer health story, an article for healthcare ... Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  5. Expectation Levels in Dictionary Consultation and Compilation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dictionary consultation and compilation is a two-way engagement between two parties, namely a dictionary user and a lexicographer. How well users cope with looking up words in a Bantu language dictionary and to what extent their expectations are met, depends on their consultation skills, their knowledge of the structure ...

  6. Knee arthroplasty: are patients' expectations fulfilled?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nilsdotter, Anna K; Toksvig-Larsen, Sören; Roos, Ewa

    2009-01-01

    to pain and physical function after knee arthroplasty. PATIENTS AND METHODS: 102 patients (39 men) with knee osteoarthritis and who were assigned for TKR (mean age 71 (51-86) years) were investigated with KOOS, SF-36, and additional questions concerning physical activity level, expectations, satisfaction...

  7. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP: AUDITORS IN UNENDING ROLE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    Correlation statistics with the aid of Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 18. The result ... especially in the area of fraud detection and made that the responsibility of management. According to them ... systems in order to narrow the audit expectation gap, however, the actual level of fraud and financial damages ...

  8. Memory for expectation-violating concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porubanova, Michaela; Shaw, Daniel; McKay, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    and animals) than to non-agents (plants or objects/artifacts). We conclude that due to their evolutionary salience, cultural ideas which combine expectancy violations and the involvement of an agent are especially memorable and thus have an enhanced probability of being successfully propagated....

  9. NCAA Penalizes Fewer Teams than Expected

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sander, Libby

    2008-01-01

    This article reports that the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) has penalized fewer teams than it expected this year over athletes' poor academic performance. For years, officials with the NCAA have predicted that strikingly high numbers of college sports teams could be at risk of losing scholarships this year because of their…

  10. Postgraduate training in Ireland: expectations and experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, D; Dornan, T; Bergin, C; Horgan, M

    2014-12-01

    Postgraduate medical training in Ireland has been compared unfavourably with training abroad and blamed for an "exodus" of graduates of Irish medical schools. Exploration of features of a good training environment and development of tools to measure it have been the focus of much published research. There have been no Irish studies examining training environment using such validated tools. The aim of this study was to use a validated tool, to examine the expectations and experience of training, amongst those training under the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland (RCPI). The Dutch Residency Education Climate Test (D-RECT) is a 50 item tool to measure postgraduate learning environments. D-RECT was sent to all new entrants to RCPI training programmes in July 2012 (n = 527) and completed in regard to expectations of training (response rate 80.6 %). In March 2013, D-RECT was sent to all RCPI trainees (n = 1,246) to complete in relation to the post held on 1 March (response rate 32.6 %). Data were analysed in SPSS version 18. Experience fell short of expectations for basic specialist training, however, scores for experience rose with greater seniority to match expectations. Positive aspects were teamwork, consultant willingness to discuss patients and respectful treatment of trainees. Areas of weakness were provision of feedback and time to learn new skills. Measurement of learning environment at a national level using a quantitative tool provides useful information for quality assurance and improvement of training.

  11. Enhanced expectancies improve performance under pressure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brad eMcKay

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Beyond skill, beliefs in requisite abilities and expectations can affect performance. This study examined effects of induced perceptions of ability to perform well under generic situations of challenge. Participants (N = 31 first completed one block of 20 trials on a throwing accuracy task. They then completed questionnaires ostensibly measuring individual differences in the ability to perform under pressure. Enhanced-expectancy group participants were told that they were well-suited to perform under pressure, while the control group received neutral information. Subsequently, all participants completed another block of 20 trials on the throwing task, with their performance being videotaped and under the assumption that they could secure a prize for themselves and a paired participant with successful performance. Both groups had similar accuracy scores on the first trial block. The enhanced-expectancy group significantly increased their throwing accuracy in the high-pressure situation (second block, whereas the control group showed no change in performance. Furthermore, beliefs regarding performance under challenge predicted throwing accuracy on the second block. The present findings provide evidence that enhancing individuals’ generic expectancies regarding performance under pressure can affect their motor performance.

  12. Impulsivity, expectancies, and evaluations of expected outcomes as predictors of alcohol use and related problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Eugene M; Freedlander, Jonathan; Coleman, Kimberly; Katz, Elizabeth C

    2013-05-01

    While the association between outcome expectancies and drinking is well documented, few studies have examined whether evaluations of expected outcomes (outcome evaluations) moderate that association. The present study tested the hypotheses that outcome evaluations moderate the outcome expectancy-drinking association and that outcome expectancies mediate the association between impulsive personality and drinking. College students (N = 201; 55.5% female) enrolled in a mid-sized metropolitan university completed measures assessing outcome expectancies and evaluations, alcohol consumption, and drinking-related problems. Consistent with study hypotheses, expectation of negative outcomes predicted lower levels of drinking, but only when these outcomes were evaluated as highly aversive. However, impulsivity was found to be a far stronger predictor of both drinking and related problems than were outcome expectancies or evaluations. The association between negative expectancy and drinking was moderated by negative evaluation, such that individuals who both expected that negative outcomes were likely to occur and who judged such outcomes as highly undesirable consumed significantly fewer drinks per week. Impulsivity was found to be a strong predictor of both alcohol consumption and alcohol-related problems.

  13. Trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in Finland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

    2012-11-01

    The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the last year of comprehensive school and 4 times during the following 5 years. Latent class analysis showed that 5 trajectories of educational expectations fit the data best: stable-university (38%), stable-vocational (18%), stable-polytechnic (24%), increasing-expectations (10%), and decreasing-expectations (10%). In line with the expectancy-value theory, adolescents' academic achievement, socioeconomic status (SES), perception of parents' aspirations for them, and ability-beliefs were all related to their trajectories of educational expectations. For example, the higher the adolescent's SES, perception of parents' educational aspirations, and grade point average (GPA), the more likely the participant was to be in the stable-university trajectory compared to the stable-vocational trajectory. Gender had an indirect effect on the trajectories via GPA. Moreover, participants with higher ability-beliefs were more likely to be in trajectories with high and stable educational expectations compared to the unstable trajectories. The trajectories were related to the participants' educational situation after comprehensive school.

  14. Job-Searching Expectations, Expectancy Violations, and Communication Strategies of Recent College Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Stephanie A.

    2017-01-01

    Expectancy violations theory, a communicative framework, is applied in this study to understand how recent college graduates form, evaluate, and respond to violated job-searching expectations. In-depth interviews of college seniors (N = 20) who were currently job searching helped answer the three research questions posed. Using a thematic…

  15. Differences in Life Expectancy and Disability Free Life Expectancy in Italy. A Challenge to Health Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgio, A.; Murianni, L.; Folino-Gallo, P.

    2009-01-01

    Background: Measures of health expectancy such as Disability Free Life Expectancy are used to evaluate and compare regional/national health statuses. These indicators are useful for understanding changes in the health status and defining health policies and decisions on the provision of services because provide useful information on possible areas…

  16. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Until recently, estimates of DNS coalescence rates provided a range of possible values without any information on the likelihood of these values. Kim et al [8] presented a newly developed statistical analysis that allows the calculation of a probability distribution for the rate estimates and the determination of confidence.

  17. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  18. Expectancies in decision making, reinforcement learning, and ventral striatum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthijs A A Van Der Meer

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Decisions can arise in different ways, such as a gut feeling, doing what worked last time, or planful deliberation. Different decision-making systems are dissociable behaviorally, map onto distinct brain systems, and require different computational demands. For instance, ’model-free’ decision strategies use prediction errors to estimate scalar action values from previous experience, while ’model-based’ strategies leverage internal forward models to generate and evaluate potentially rich outcome expectancies. Animal learning studies indicate that expectancies may arise from different sources, including not only forward models but also Pavlovian associations, and the flexibility with which such representations impact behavior may depend on how they are generated. In the light of these considerations, we review the results of van der Meer and Redish (2009a, who found that ventral striatal neurons that respond to reward delivery can also be activated at other points, notably at a decision point where hippocampal forward representations were also observed. These data suggest the possibility that ventral striatal reward representations contribute to model-based expectancies used in deliberative decision-making.

  19. Multiple Equilibria in Noisy Rational Expectations Economies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pálvölgyi, Dömötör; Venter, Gyuri

    This paper studies equilibrium uniqueness in standard noisy rational expectations economies with asymmetric or differential information a la Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) and Hellwig (1980). We show that the standard linear equilibrium of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980) is the unique equilibrium...... with a continuous price function. However, we also construct a tractable class of equilibria with discontinuous prices that have very different economic implications, including (i) jumps and crashes, (ii) significant revisions in uninformed belief due to small changes in the market price, (iii) “upward......-sloping” demand curves, (iv) higher prices leading to future returns that are higher in expectation (price drift) and (v) more positively skewed. Discontinuous equilibria can be arbitrarily close to being fully-revealing. Finally, discontinuous equilibria with the same construction also exist in Hellwig (1980)....

  20. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    This paper investigates the expectations of gamblers who have a risk attitude towards gambling (problem gamblers) and gamblers without a risk attitude (non-problem gamblers). In a representative survey of the Danish population we have selected all the people who have ever gambled. We classify...... the gamblers to have a risk attitude towards gambling if they have a positive score according to the NODS screening instrument (see appendix 1). In the questionnaire, some questions are asked to all the gamblers and some questions are asked specifically to the gamblers who have a positive NODS score and thus......, a risk attitude towards gambling. Based on the information from the survey there are several ways to carry out some logical tests around the elicited expectations. An interesting question is how gamblers perceive their chances of winning and the likely gains they can obtain. We investigate whether...

  1. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction......, the sophisticated strategy, i.e., the strategy generated by a standard rolling back of the decision tree, is likely to be dominated w.r.t. stochastic dominance. Dynamic consistency of choices remains feasible, and the decision maker can avoid dominated choices, by adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, with his...... choices in a subtree possibly depending on what happens in the rest of the tree. We propose a procedure which: (i) although adopting a non-consequentialist behavior, involves a form of rolling back of the decision tree; (ii) selects a non-dominated strategy that realizes a compromise between the decision...

  2. WHETHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTERNATIONALIZATION OF RENMINBI?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dragana M. Đurić

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available China's growing in the big player on the world scene, the question is whether is realistic to expect to get to the internationalization renminbi? This paper analyzes the position of the U.S. dollar and the euro in the present and projected their importance in the future. The author believes that there is sufficient political conditions to introduce a synthetic currency as an international standard, and when the renminbi points to the need to make significant, previous changes in the Chinese economic system that would create the conditions for it. It is estimated that in the medium term is expected to be increased importance of China's currency in the international economic and financial transactions, and possibly using it with a certain weight in the SDR valuation.

  3. Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten Igel

    to market efficiency. We design an economic experiment to test a psychological hypothesis of errors in expectations widely cited in finance, which states that, in violations of Bayes Rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of an information signal. The strength of a signal is how saliently...... it supports a specific hypothesis, as opposed to its weight, which is its predictive validity. We find that the strength-weight bias affects expectations, but that its magnitude is three times lower than originally reported in the psychology literature. This suggests that its impact on financial markets......Behavioural finance theories draw on evidence from psychology that suggest that some people respond to information in a biased manner, and construct theories of inefficient markets. However, these biases are not always robust when tested in economic conditions, which casts doubt on their relevance...

  4. Life Expectancy in Pleural and Peritoneal Mesothelioma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Shavelle

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Mesothelioma is a rare cancer with a historically dire prognosis. We sought to calculate life expectancies for patients with pleural or peritoneal mesothelioma, both at time of diagnosis and several years later, and to examine whether survival has improved in recent years. Methods. Data on 10,258 pleural and 1,229 peritoneal patients from the SEER US national cancer database, 1973–2011, were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. Results. The major factors related to survival were age, sex, stage, grade, histology, and treatment. Survival improved only modestly over the study period: 0.5% per year for pleural and 2% for peritoneal. Conclusions. Life expectancies were markedly reduced from normal, even amongst 5-year survivors with the most favorable characteristics and treatment options.

  5. Information Characteristics and Errors in Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.

    2017-01-01

    We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes' rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally occurring information, and control for risk attitude. We find that the s......We design an experiment to test the hypothesis that, in violation of Bayes' rule, some people respond more forcefully to the strength of information than to its weight. We provide incentives to motivate effort, use naturally occurring information, and control for risk attitude. We find...... that the strength-weight bias affects expectations but that its magnitude is significantly lower than originally reported. Controls for nonlinear utility further reduce the bias. Our results suggest that incentive compatibility and controls for risk attitude considerably affect inferences on errors in expectations....

  6. Ranges of bimodule projections and conditional expectations

    CERN Document Server

    Pluta, Robert

    2013-01-01

    The algebraic theory of corner subrings introduced by Lam (as an abstraction of the properties of Peirce corners eRe of a ring R associated with an idempotent e in R) is investigated here in the context of Banach and C*-algebras. We propose a general algebraic approach which includes the notion of ranges of (completely) contractive conditional expectations on C*-algebras and on ternary rings of operators, and we investigate when topological properties are consequences of the algebraic assumpt...

  7. Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Robert J. Shiller

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989 1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five different time-series indicators of whether there is among investors an ex...

  8. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    For initial LIGO, the most probable detection rates for double neutron star (DNS) inspirals is 1 event/(5{250) yr; at 95% confidence we obtain rates up to 1/1.5 yr. For advanced LIGO, the most probable rates are 20-1000 events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO to ...

  9. Investigating expectation effects using multiple physiological measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander eSiller

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed at experimentally investigating whether the human body can anticipate future events under improved methodological conditions. Previous studies have reported contradictory results for the phenomenon typically called presentiment. If the positive findings are accurate, they call into doubt our views about human perception, and if they are inaccurate, a plausible conventional explanation might be based on the experimental design of the previous studies, in which expectation due to item sequences was misinterpreted as presentiment. To address these points, we opted to collect several physiological variables, to test different randomization types and to manipulate subjective significance individually. For the latter, we combined a mock crime scenario, in which participants had to steal specific items, with a concealed information test (CIT, in which the participants had to conceal their knowledge when interrogated about items they had stolen or not stolen. We measured electrodermal activity, respiration, finger pulse, heart rate, and reaction times. The participants (n=154 were assigned randomly to four different groups. Items presented in the CIT were either drawn with replacement (full or without replacement (pseudo and were either presented category-wise (cat or regardless of categories (nocat. To understand how these item sequences influence expectation and modulate physiological reactions, we compared the groups with respect to effect sizes for stolen vs. not stolen items. Group pseudo_cat yielded the highest effect sizes, and pseudo_nocat yielded the lowest. We could not find any evidence of presentiment but did find evidence of physiological correlates of expectation. Due to the design differing fundamentally from previous studies, these findings do not allow for conclusions on the question whether the expectation bias is being confounded with presentiment.

  10. Expected Taxes and Household Consumption Behavior

    OpenAIRE

    Kueng, Lorenz

    2012-01-01

    In this dissertation I ask two basic questions: First, how predictable are personal income tax changes in the U.S. and second, does household consumption respond to news about future tax changes, or does it mostly respond at the time when the tax rates actually change? These are interesting questions because they have broad implications for macroeconomics and public economics. The rational-expectations life-cycle theory of consumption is the workhorse in modern macroeconomics. While there ar...

  11. Dark matter more mysterious than expected

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jałocha, Joanna

    2015-12-01

    Based on the lecture Dark Matter --- more mysterious than expected}, given by me at the Cosmology School in Kielce on 18 July 2015, I will briefly discuss in this essay the history of dark matter and why this notion is so essential for the contemporary physics. Next, I will present the point of view of the research team I work with, on the presence of nonbaryonic dark matter in the Universe and in spiral galaxies.

  12. Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine

    2014-01-01

    study using single-decrement period life tables. SUBJECTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer...... and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency....

  13. Risk Acceptance and Expectations of Scalp Allotransplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jun Ho; Kim, Kwang Seog; Shin, Jun Ho; Hwang, Jae Ha; Lee, Sam Yong

    2016-06-01

    In scalp allotransplantation, the scalp from a brain-dead donor, including hair, is transferred to a recipient with scalp defects. Opinions differ on the appropriateness of scalp allotransplantation. In order to maintain graft function and cosmetic outcomes, scalp transplantation recipients would need to receive lifelong immunosuppression treatments. The risks of this immunosuppression have to be balanced against the fact that receiving a scalp allotransplant does not extend lifespan or restore a physical function. Therefore, the present study aimed to investigate risk acceptance and expectations regarding scalp allotransplantation in different populations. A questionnaire survey study was conducted. A total of 300 subjects participated; survey was conducted amongst the general public (n=100), kidney transplantation recipients (n=50), a group of patient who required scalp reconstruction due to tumor or trauma (n=50), and physicians (n=100). The survey was modified by using the Korean version of the Louisville instrument for transplantation questionnaire. Risk acceptance and expectations for scalp transplantation varied widely across the groups. Kidney transplantation recipients revealed the highest risk acceptance and expectations, whereas the physicians were most resistant to the risks of scalp transplantation. Our study demonstrates that, in specific groups, scalp allotransplantation and the need for immunosuppression carries an acceptable risk despite the lack of lifeextending benefits. Our results suggest that scalp allotransplantation can be an acceptable alternative to existing scalp reconstruction surgeries in patients with pre-existing need for immunosuppression.

  14. Employee perceptions of 'profiled' customers' expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebko, C P

    1998-01-01

    There has been an increasing interest in the issues of quality in service delivery. The SERVQUAL theory addresses these issues and identifies the causes of service quality problems. The practical, managerial implications of the SERVQUAL theory and model are currently being addressed (Reidenbach and Sandifer-Smallwood, 1990; Woodside, Frey and Daly, 1989; Mangold and Babakus, 1991; Webster, 1989; Day, 1992). A handful of these articles have specifically addressed the managerial implications of the SERVQUAL Gap 1 analysis: the identification of employee and management perceptions of consumer expectations (Mangold and Babakus, 1991; Headley and Choi, 1992; Bebko, 1994). Previously, none of the research had mentioned the potential problems inherent in Gap 1 analysis when the organization is faced with several "types" of customers, each with possibly different expectations. Consequently, the results of the GAP 1 analysis may not represent the true picture of employee perceptions of consumer expectations. This would have implications for the validity of the SERVQUAL instrument in assessing a service's ability to deliver quality to consumers.

  15. Nigerian tourists to South Africa: Challenges, expectations and demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ikechukwu O. Ezeuduji

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: Identification of tourists’ needs and finding ways of satisfying them is crucial to any tourism destination.Research purpose: This paper investigated the challenges, demands and expectations of Nigerian tourists to South Africa.Motivation for the study: Nigeria, along with other African nations, has been identified as one of the core regional source markets with air links to South Africa. Increasing revenue generated from regional tourism is important to South African Tourism.Research design, approach and method: Descriptive statistics and Chi-square tests were used to analyse the data collected using a questionnaire survey of 320 Nigerian tourists to South Africa.Main findings: Results showed that Nigerian tourists visit South Africa mostly for the purposes of business, holiday, visiting friends and relatives, education and medical care. Challenges perceived by these Nigerian tourists visiting South Africa include long waiting time for the visa process in Nigeria, expensive cost of living in South Africa, safety and security problems, not so many airlines to choose from and expensive flight costs. Nigerian tourists mostly expect South Africans to be friendlier and have expectations of linking up with new business partners or performing transactions. They also have a strong demand for shopping, leisure and quality education.Practical/managerial implications: This study recommends a bilateral tourism relationship agreement between the Nigerian and South African governments to ameliorate the visa process; targeted marketing communications by South African Tourism toward Nigerian tourists based on study results; strong police presence and proper policing in South Africa; air transport liberalisation and low-cost carriers implementation for shared economic growth within the African region.Contribution/value-add: No former research has specifically identified Nigerian tourists’ challenges, expectations and demands whilst visiting

  16. Alcohol Expectancy Priming and Drinking Behavior: The Role of Compatibility between Prime and Expectancy Content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Ronald S.; McCarthy, Denis M.; Pedersen, Sarah L.; Hicks, Joshua A.

    2009-01-01

    According to information-processing models of alcohol use, alcohol expectancies constitute representations in long-term memorythat may be activated in the presence of drinking-related cues, thereby influencing alcohol consumption. A fundamental implication of this approach is that primed expectancies should affect drinking only for those individuals who possess the specific expectancies primed. To test this notion, in the present study, participants were initially assessed on three distinct domains of positive alcohol expectancies. Approximately one week later, they completed an ad libitum drinking study during which only a single expectancy domain (sociability) was primed in the experimental condition. Consistent with predictions, following exposure to sociability primes, but not control primes, individuals with stronger expectancies that alcohol would enhance sociability uniquely showed increased placebo consumption of nonalcoholic beer. These results, which demonstrate the moderating role of compatibility between the specific content of primes and that of underlying expectancies, offer new, direct support for memory network-based models of drinking behavior. PMID:19586149

  17. Projects as value constellations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Markus

    Creating value has been outlined as very central to projects applying the organizational perspective to projects. It has been suggested that value is created in value constellations or project networks, where actors work together to create value. However, research on the value creation process...... in value constellations is scarce, and through an exploratory study of two project networks in a cultural setting we investigate how value is created in value constellations. We outline how each project may be a distinct type of value constellation, one project creates value for the partners of the network...... as a consortium, and the project creates value primarily for others as a facilitator....

  18. The Value of Reciprocity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molm, Linda D.; Schaefer, David R.; Collett, Jessica L.

    2007-01-01

    The value of reciprocity in social exchange potentially comprises both instrumental value (the value of the actual benefits received from exchange) and communicative or symbolic value (the expressive and uncertainty reduction value conveyed by features of the act of reciprocity itself). While all forms of exchange provide instrumental value, we…

  19. Marijuana and Cocaine Effect Expectancies and Drug Use Patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, John; Brown, Sandra A.

    1991-01-01

    Content analyzed self-reports from 704 college students and used results to develop Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire and Cocaine Effect Expectancy Questionnaire. Identified six marijuana expectancies and five cocaine expectancies. Drug effect expectancies distinguished between patterns of nonuse and varying degrees of use of these two…

  20. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...... of funding liquidity constraints suggesting an economic channel for the effect....

  1. Infant mortality and life expectancy in China

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Yanhua; Zhang, Weifang; Yang, Rulai; Zou, Chaochun; Zhao, Zhengyan

    2014-01-01

    Background It is reported that the infant mortality (IM) rate decreased rapidly in China and the life expectancy (LE) also had a high increase. Our objective was to determine the health status of the Chinese population by investigating IM and LE and their inter-relationship. Material/Methods Based on a literature review on the history and current status of IM and LE in China and other major countries, the relationship between IM, LE, and per capita gross national income (GNI) was investigated...

  2. Tourists’ expectations towards the agritourism farms’ offer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwona Wilk

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Agritourism plays an important role in multifunctional agriculture. Its development depends on agritourists’ needs identification in relation to the desired agritourism offer components which contributes to their improvement within agritourism farms market activity. The aim of the study was to determine customers preferences towards the agritourism farms offer in the Lodz region. The study was carried out on a sample of 120 respondents in 2011 (July-August and revealed that agritourists expect an offer, consisting of the components of various options offered by agritourism farm, matching their individual needs.

  3. Estimating the Life Expectancy of Facilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-04-01

    Expectancy 1’ Facilitie,." The applicable requirement code is QCR L.01.005. Mr. Frauik Beck is the OCEI Technical Monitor. ’The stud , ast% conducted under...59,327 1934 concrete HTS Spanish Tile 223 72410 3.390 1893 Rock Brick Asphalt 2406 74050 4,035 1956 Concrete Mascnry Composition *Abbrevimions: ASBSH...1tructure B. PipesI . Corro~ion A. FloorJoists 2. Scale I. Cracks C. Stoker---Coal Burner2. Deterioration I. Wear 3. Excessive deflection 4. Insect and

  4. Destination visual image and expectation of experiences

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ye, H.; Tussyadiah, Iis

    2011-01-01

    A unique experience is the essence of tourism sought by tourists. The most effective way to communicate the notion of a tourism experience at a destination is to provide visual cues that stimulate the imagination and connect with potential tourists in a personal way. This study aims...... at understanding how a visual image is relevant to the expectation of experiences by deconstructing images of a destination and interpreting visitors' perceptions of these images and the experiences associated with them. The results suggest that tourists with different understandings of desirable experiences found...

  5. Law of Large Numbers under Choquet Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Chen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available With a new notion of independence of random variables, we establish the nonadditive version of weak law of large numbers (LLN for the independent and identically distributed (IID random variables under Choquet expectations induced by 2-alternating capacities. Moreover, we weaken the moment assumptions to the first absolute moment and characterize the approximate distributions of random variables as well. Naturally, our theorem can be viewed as an extension of the classical LLN to the case where the probability is no longer additive.

  6. Am I Halfway? Life Lived = Expected Life

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Zarulli, Virginia

    2016-01-01

    life expectancy at that age. This relationship in stable population models between life lived and life left has captured the attention of mathematical demographers since Lotka. Our paper aims to contribute to the halfway-age debate by showing its time trends under mortality models and with current data......“Nel mezzo del cammin di nostra vita, Mi ritrovai per una selva oscura, Ché la diritta via era smarrita. [In the middle of the journey of our life, I came to myself in a dark wood, for the straight way was lost.]” (Dante 1308-1320) We have reached halfway in life when our age equals our remaining...

  7. GST in India: Expectations and challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ratul Mahanta

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available India is ready to implement its “Goods and Services Tax (GST” act from 1st April 2017. It is expected that GST will minimise all the loopholes of existing tax system in India. However, critics argue that the euphoria over GST camouflages the deadly assault to tax policy as a means of promoting equity and efficiency. This review on GST highlights the challenges over GST claims. It has been observed that to implement GST effectively, both centre and state have to go hand in hand.

  8. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  9. The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Lee, Jinkook

    Preparing for the end of life, especially for the prospect of needing long-term care, is an important issue facing older Americans. Those who reach age 65 have a 40% chance of going into a nursing home in their remaining lifetime, and about 10% of those who do will stay there for at least five...... years. The costs of a stay are high with on average US$70,000 annually for a private room. Long-term stays in nursing homes are, therefore, not likely, but very expensive. In this paper, we examine individual expectations about future nursing home entry and study the relationship between...... these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, and a positive effect of these expectations on savings behavior. Surprisingly, we find no difference of this effect...

  10. Persistent social inequality in life expectancy and disability-free life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen

    2017-01-01

    AIMS: The state old-age pension in Denmark increases to keep pace with the projected increase in average life expectancy (LE) without any regard to the social gap in LE and expected lifetime in good health. The purpose of this study was to compare changes in LE and disability-free life expectancy...... between people with high and low levels of education remained more than 2 years. In 2006-2007, 65-year-old men with a high level of education could expect 3.2 more years without disability than men of the same age with a low level of education. In 2013-2014, the difference was 2.9 years. For women...

  11. Vroom's Expectancy Theory. An Empirical Study: Civil Servant's Performance Appraisal Influencing Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonina Emilia SUCIU

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to highlight the importance of performance evaluation from the perspective of work motivation. The research is based on the expectancy theory developed by Victor Vroom and is meant to show that performance evaluation influences one of the factors from the VIE model, the expectancy. The empirical part of the research aims to show the above mentioned in the context of local public administration, namely in the case of the Romanian civil servants from the North-West Region. We have presented the particularities of civil servants performance evaluation in the Romanian local public administration, and its connection to their expectancy and work motivation. The results have shown that civil servants performance appraisal influences civil servants expectancy and this in its turn influences their work motivation.

  12. Vroom's Expectancy Theory. An Empirical Study: Civil Servant's Performance Appraisal Influencing Expectancy

    OpenAIRE

    Leonina Emilia SUCIU; Mortan, Maria; Lucreţia LAZĂR

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to highlight the importance of performance evaluation from the perspective of work motivation. The research is based on the expectancy theory developed by Victor Vroom and is meant to show that performance evaluation influences one of the factors from the VIE model, the expectancy. The empirical part of the research aims to show the above mentioned in the context of local public administration, namely in the case of the Romanian civil servants from the North-West Region. We ha...

  13. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    OpenAIRE

    Bae, Jaekyoung; Kim, Yeon-Yong; Lee, Jin-Seok

    2017-01-01

    Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE) has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE) in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Kor...

  14. Pricing for Higher Education Institutions: A Value-Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amir, Amizawati Mohd; Auzair, Sofiah Md; Maelah, Ruhanita; Ahmad, Azlina

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to propose the concept of higher education institutions (HEIs) offering educational services based on value for money. The value is determined based on customers' (i.e. students) expectations of the service and the costs in comparison to the competitors. Understanding the value and creating customer value are…

  15. Anticipatory looks reveal expectations about discourse relations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohde, Hannah; Horton, William S

    2014-12-01

    Previous research provides evidence for expectation-driven processing within sentences at phonological, lexical, and syntactic levels of linguistic structure. Less well-established is whether comprehenders also anticipate pragmatic relationships between sentences. To address this, we evaluate a unit of discourse structure that comprehenders must infer to hold between sentences in order for a discourse to make sense-the intersentential coherence relation. In a novel eyetracking paradigm, we trained participants to associate particular spatial locations with particular coherence relations. Experiment 1 shows that the subset of listeners who successfully acquired the location∼relation mappings during training subsequently looked to these locations during testing in response to a coherence-signaling intersentential connective. Experiment 2 finds that listeners' looks during sentences containing coherence-biasing verbs reveal expectations about upcoming sentence types. This work extends existing research on prediction beyond sentence-internal structure and provides a new methodology for examining the cues that comprehenders use to establish relationships at the discourse level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Patient Care Partnership: Understanding Expectations, Rights and Responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    ` e Patient Care Partnership Understanding Expectations, Rights and Responsibilities What to expect during your hospital stay: • High ... e Patient Care Partnership Understanding Expectations, Rights and Responsibilities W hen you need hospital care, your doctor ...

  17. Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends

    OpenAIRE

    Shiller, Robert; Campbell, John

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We estimate that for each year the optimal forecast of the present value of future real dividends is roughly a weighted average of moving average earnings and current real price, with between 2/3 and 3/4 ...

  18. Measuring affective (liking) and non-affective (expected satiety) determinants of portion size and food reward.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Shakeshaft, Nicholas G

    2009-02-01

    Previously, we have used a 'method of constant stimuli' to quantify the satiety that different foods are expected to deliver. Our data indicate that foods differ considerably (some are expected to deliver 5-6 times more satiety than others [per kcal]). In the present study we explored the relative importance of 'expected satiety' in decisions about portion size. For eight different snack foods, we measured 'ideal' portion size and compared these values with corresponding measures of liking, expected satiety, and intention to restrict intake. Across participants (N=60), ideal portion size was predicted by both liking and expected satiety. Individuals differed in the relative importance of expected satiety and liking. In particular, expected satiety was a more important predictor in restrained eaters and in individuals with a higher BMI. In this study we also included a measure of food reward. For each food, reward was inferred from a measure based on cash spend per kcal. Again, food liking and expected satiety were both significant predictors. Together, our findings confirm the importance of expected satiety and they demonstrate the quantification of separate affective and non-affective determinants of food reward and portion size.

  19. The future of life expectancy and life expectancy inequalities in England and Wales: Bayesian spatiotemporal forecasting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, James E; Li, Guangquan; Foreman, Kyle; Best, Nicky; Kontis, Vasilis; Pearson, Clare; Hambly, Peter; Ezzati, Majid

    2015-07-11

    To plan for pensions and health and social services, future mortality and life expectancy need to be forecast. Consistent forecasts for all subnational units within a country are very rare. Our aim was to forecast mortality and life expectancy for England and Wales' districts. We developed Bayesian spatiotemporal models for forecasting of age-specific mortality and life expectancy at a local, small-area level. The models included components that accounted for mortality in relation to age, birth cohort, time, and space. We used geocoded mortality and population data between 1981 and 2012 from the Office for National Statistics together with the model with the smallest error to forecast age-specific death rates and life expectancy to 2030 for 375 of England and Wales' 376 districts. We measured model performance by withholding recent data and comparing forecasts with this withheld data. Life expectancy at birth in England and Wales was 79·5 years (95% credible interval 79·5-79·6) for men and 83·3 years (83·3-83·4) for women in 2012. District life expectancies ranged between 75·2 years (74·9-75·6) and 83·4 years (82·1-84·8) for men and between 80·2 years (79·8-80·5) and 87·3 years (86·0-88·8) for women. Between 1981 and 2012, life expectancy increased by 8·2 years for men and 6·0 years for women, closing the female-male gap from 6·0 to 3·8 years. National life expectancy in 2030 is expected to reach 85·7 (84·2-87·4) years for men and 87·6 (86·7-88·9) years for women, further reducing the female advantage to 1·9 years. Life expectancy will reach or surpass 81·4 years for men and reach or surpass 84·5 years for women in every district by 2030. Longevity inequality across districts, measured as the difference between the 1st and 99th percentiles of district life expectancies, has risen since 1981, and is forecast to rise steadily to 8·3 years (6·8-9·7) for men and 8·3 years (7·1-9·4) for women by 2030. Present forecasts underestimate

  20. Heavy Stable Isotopes: From Exceptional to Expected

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anbar, A.

    2006-12-01

    Less than a decade ago, the stable isotope geochemistry of transition metals and other "heavy" elements was a highly specialized niche confined to a few seemingly exceptional elements. This situation was transformed by the development and refinement of MC-ICP-MS techniques, particularly in the last five years. Measurable stable isotope variations turn out to be ubiquitous across the periodic table, from Li to Hg. It is now safe to assume that the isotopic composition of any element with two or more stable isotopes is measurably variable. What was once exceptional is now expected. Among the first of these new systems to be explored were Fe and Mo isotopes. A number of lessons emerging from this work can be applied to the development of other isotope systems. Most important is that initial expectations are often wrong. For example, based on their environmental chemistries it was expected that redox reactions should produce some of the largest isotope effects for both elements. In the case of Fe, theoretical and experimental studies converge to convincingly indicate that a fractionation of ~ 1.5 ‰/amu occurs between Fe(III) and Fe(II) aquo complexes at equilibrium (e.g., Welch et al., 2003; Anbar et al., 2005). Consistent with these findings, most natural variations of are < 1.5 ‰/amu (e.g., Johnson et al., 2004). This redox-related fractionation is at the heart of emerging interpretations of variations in the isotopic composition of Fe and their application to understanding ancient ocean redox (e.g., Dauphas et al., 2004; Rouxel et al., 2005). In contrast, Mo isotope variations turn out to be controlled only indirectly by redox conditions. Instead, one of the most important Mo isotope effects in the environment appears to be a fractionation of ~ 1 ‰/amu during adsorption of Mo to Mn-oxides (Barling et al., 2001; Siebert et al., 2003). This fractionation has been reproduced in the laboratory (Barling and Anbar, 2004) and appears to be an equilibrium isotope

  1. Life Expectancy of Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Approaches the Life Expectancy of the General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W; Höglund, Martin; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L

    2016-08-20

    A dramatic improvement in the survival of patients with chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) occurred after the introduction of imatinib mesylate, the first tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI). We assessed how these changes affected the life expectancy of patients with CML and life-years lost as a result of CML between 1973 and 2013 in Sweden. Patients recorded as having CML in the Swedish Cancer Registry from 1973 to 2013 were included in the study and followed until death, censorship, or end of follow-up. The life expectancy and loss in expectation of life were predicted from a flexible parametric relative survival model. A total of 2,662 patients with CML were diagnosed between 1973 and 2013. Vast improvements in the life expectancy of these patients were seen over the study period; larger improvements were seen in the youngest ages. The great improvements in life expectancy translated into great reductions in the loss in expectation of life. Patients of all ages diagnosed in 2013 will, on average, lose life-years as a result of CML. Imatinib mesylate and new TKIs along with allogeneic stem cell transplantation and other factors have contributed to the life expectancy in patients with CML approaching that of the general population today. This will be an important message to convey to patients to understand the impact of a CML diagnosis on their life. In addition, the increasing prevalence of patients with CML will have a great effect on future health care costs as long as continuous TKI treatment is required. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  2. Shareholders’ expectations, aspiration levels, and mergers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diecidue, E.; van de Ven, J.; Weitzel, U.

    This paper offers a new explanation of value-reducing mergers and stock market driven takeovers by introducing recent research on aspiration levels and individual decision making under risk. If market valuation constitutes an aspiration level for managers, we show that managers may be tempted to

  3. Maslow and Values Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, Rodney

    1978-01-01

    Identifies major value bases which have been used to teach values in the classroom and outlines a values education program which stresses teaching about values without indoctrination. Based upon the hierarchy of human needs developed by psychologist Abraham Maslow, the program is based upon universal values, basic human needs, and recognition of…

  4. Impact of selected risk factors on quality-adjusted life expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud; Davidsen, Michael

    2007-01-01

    AIMS: The construct quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) combines mortality and overall health status and can be used to quantify the impact of risk factors on population health. The purpose of the study was to estimate the impact of tobacco smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity...... Health Survey 2000, and Danish EQ-5D values. RESULTS: The quality-adjusted life expectancy of 25-year-olds was 10-11 QALYs shorter for heavy smokers than for those who never smoke. The difference in life expectancy was 9-10 years. Men and women with high alcohol consumption could expect to lose about 5...... and 3 QALYs, respectively. Sedentary persons could expect to have about 7 fewer QALYs than physically active persons. Obesity shortened QALYs by almost 3 for men and 6 for women. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking, high alcohol consumption, physical inactivity, and obesity strongly reduce life expectancy and health...

  5. Great expectations: really the novel predictor of outcome after spinal surgery?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannion, Anne F; Junge, Astrid; Elfering, Achim; Dvorak, Jiri; Porchet, François; Grob, Dieter

    2009-07-01

    Prospective study. The present study compared different theories on the role of expectations in a group of patients undergoing lumbar decompression surgery. Patients' expectations of treatment are a potentially important predictor of self-rated outcome after surgery. Some studies suggest that high baseline expectations per se yield better outcomes, others maintain that the fulfillment of prior expectations is paramount, and still others assert that it is the actual improvement in symptom status that governs outcome, regardless of prior expectations. Hundred patients took part (33 F, 67 M; mean [SD] age, 65 [11] yrs). Before surgery, they completed a booklet containing the Roland-Morris (RM) disability questionnaire, 0-10 pain graphic rating scales (back and leg separately), and Likert-scales about the degree of improvement expected in various domains. Two and 12 months after surgery, questions were answered regarding the perceived improvement for each of these domains, the RM and pain scales were completed again, and the patients rated the global outcome on a 5-point Likert-scale. Compared with the actual improvement recorded at 12 months, prior expectations had been overly optimistic in about 40% patients for the domains leg pain, back pain, walking capacity, social life, mental well-being, and independence, and in 50% patients for everyday activities and sport. There was no significant relationship between baseline expectations and follow-up scores for back pain, leg pain, RM-disability (corrected for baseline values), or global outcome. Hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed that "expectations being fulfilled" was the most significant predictor of global outcome. In this patient group, expectations of surgery were overly optimistic. Having one's expectations fulfilled was most important for a good outcome. The results emphasize the importance of assessing patient-orientated outcome in routine practice, and the factors that might influence it, such

  6. Radiation damage at LHCb, results and expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    Faerber, Christian

    2011-01-01

    The LHCb Detector is a single-arm spectrometer at the LHC designed to detect new physics through measuring CP violation and rare decays of heavy flavor mesons. The detector consists of vertex detector, tracking system, dipole magnet, 2 RICH detectors, em. calorimeter, hadron calorimeter, muon detector which all use different technologies and suffer differently from radiation damage. These radiation damage results and the investigation methods will be shown. The delivered luminosity till July 2011 was about 450 pb−1. The Vertex detector receives the highest particle flux at LHCb. The currents drawn by the silicon sensors are, as expected, increasing proportional to the integrated luminosity. The highest irradiaton regions of the n-bulk silicon sensors are observed to have recently undergone space charge sign inversion. The Silicon Trackers show increasing leakage currents comparable with earlier predictions. The electromagentic calorimeter and hadron calorimeter suffer under percent-level signal decrease whi...

  7. Components of attention modulated by temporal expectation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Bundesen, Claus

    2015-01-01

    By varying the probabilities that a stimulus would appear at particular times after the presentation of a cue and modeling the data by the theory of visual attention (Bundesen, 1990), Vangkilde, Coull, and Bundesen (2012) provided evidence that the speed of encoding a singly presented stimulus...... conditions. In line with the Easterbrook (1959) hypothesis, under high temporal expectancy, the processing was also more focused (selective). First, the storage capacity of VSTM was lower, so that fewer stimuli were encoded into VSTM. Second, the distribution of attentional weights across stimuli was less...... even: The efficiency of selecting targets rather than distractors for encoding into VSTM was higher, as was the spread of the attentional weights of the target letters....

  8. Expectation of success for the PNQ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano Dagostin Bilessimo

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This work searchs to develop an instrument to diagnosis the expectation of success of the small Brazilian company. Approach PNQ (Prêmio Nacional da Qualidade is used as reference. First, a questionnaire was created, with simple and current language for the partner-controlling, that generate a punctuation in the end of the application, facilitating the identification of strong points and chances of improvement for the company in question. A applicatory one for this questionnaire elaborated From the application of the considered model was developed previously, the owner of small busines has a diagnosis of its management, serving of base for its strategical planning, route the continuous improvement. Key-words: PNQ, Smal Busines, Diagnosis.

  9. Implicit temporal expectation attenuates auditory attentional blink.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dawei Shen

    Full Text Available Attentional blink (AB describes a phenomenon whereby correct identification of a first target impairs the processing of a second target (i.e., probe nearby in time. Evidence suggests that explicit attention orienting in the time domain can attenuate the AB. Here, we used scalp-recorded, event-related potentials to examine whether auditory AB is also sensitive to implicit temporal attention orienting. Expectations were set up implicitly by varying the probability (i.e., 80% or 20% that the probe would occur at the +2 or +8 position following target presentation. Participants showed a significant AB, which was reduced with the increased probe probability at the +2 position. The probe probability effect was paralleled by an increase in P3b amplitude elicited by the probe. The results suggest that implicit temporal attention orienting can facilitate short-term consolidation of the probe and attenuate auditory AB.

  10. Preparing for TESS: What to Expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berta-Thompson, Zachory K.

    2015-08-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will launch in 2017 as a NASA Explorer mission, and will discover hundreds of new small planets transiting nearby, bright stars. As has been the case with Kepler, understanding and limiting systematic noise sources will be key to squeezing the best photometric precision out of the TESS instrument. I will describe our efforts at MIT to minimize such systematics, speaking both generally and in regard to one very specific challenge: mitigating the scourge of cosmic rays passing through TESS's thick CCD detectors. I will present the current data collection strategy and its expected performance in light of these known error sources, and I will share detailed simulations of what the TESS survey data will be like. Harnessing the unique opportunity offered by this focus meeting, I hope to solicit feedback from the ExoStats community on what additional lessons from Kepler should be considered in advance of the launch of TESS.

  11. Managing Media: Segmenting Media Through Consumer Expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matt Eastin

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available It has long been understood that consumers are motivated to media differently. However, given the lack of comparative model analysis, this assumption is without empirical validation, and thus, the orientation of segmentation from a media management perspective is without motivational grounds. Thus, evolving the literature on media consumption, the current study develops and compares models of media segmentation within the context of use. From this study, six models of media expectancies were constructed so that motivational differences between media (i.e., local and national newspapers, network and cable television, radio, and Internet could be observed. Utilizing higher order statistical analyses the data indicates differences across a model comparison approach for media motivations. Furthermore, these differences vary across numerous demographic factors. Results afford theoretical advancement within the literature of consumer media consumption as well as provide media planners’ insight into consumer choices.

  12. Life Expectancy in Patients Treated for Osteoporosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Abrahamsen, Bo; Osmond, Clive; Cooper, Cyrus

    2015-01-01

    Osteoporosis is a chronic disease, carrying an elevated risk of fractures, morbidity, and death. Long-term treatment may be required, but the long-term risks with osteoporosis drugs remain incompletely understood. The competing risk of death may be a barrier to treating the oldest, yet this may...... not be rational if the risk of death is reduced by treatment. It is difficult to devise goal-directed long-term strategies for managing osteoporosis without firm information about residual life expectancy in treated patients. We conducted an observational study in Danish national registries tracking prescriptions...... for osteoporosis drugs, comorbid conditions, and deaths. We included 58,637 patients and 225,084 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Information on deaths until the end of 2013 was retrieved, providing a follow-up period of 10 to 17 years. In men younger than 80 years and women younger than 60 years...

  13. Expectation propagation for continuous time stochastic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cseke, Botond; Schnoerr, David; Opper, Manfred; Sanguinetti, Guido

    2016-12-01

    We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the posterior measure over the trajectories of a diffusion process from discrete time observations and continuous time constraints. We cast the problem in a Bayesian framework and derive approximations to the posterior distributions of single time marginals using variational approximate inference, giving rise to an expectation propagation type algorithm. For non-linear diffusion processes, this is achieved by leveraging moment closure approximations. We then show how the approximation can be extended to a wide class of discrete-state Markov jump processes by making use of the chemical Langevin equation. Our empirical results show that the proposed method is computationally efficient and provides good approximations for these classes of inverse problems.

  14. What should we expect from psychotherapy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfried, Marvin R

    2013-11-01

    In addressing the very general question of what we should expect from psychotherapy, this article begins by discussing what constitutes relevant evidence on which to base the efficacy and effectiveness of psychotherapy. In this context, an important distinction is made between empirically supported treatments and evidence-based practice. Although there is evidence that psychotherapy does indeed work, there are also findings that there are times when our patients are harmed by our interventions. It is noted that the therapeutic alliance plays an extremely important role in the change process, and that ruptures in the alliance can contribute to our therapeutic failures. In pointing to directions for the future, modifications of how we investigate the outcome of treatment, as well as how to close the gap between research and practice, are offered. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Uncovering the expectancy effect: the validation of the acupuncture expectancy scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Jun J; Xie, Sharon X; Bowman, Marjorie A

    2010-01-01

    Research suggests that expectancy may modulate the response to medical interventions, including acupuncture. However, the paucity of validated tools to measure expectancy limits rigorous evaluation. We sought to validate a previously developed Acupuncture Expectancy Scale (AES) as an instrument to measure patients' expected responses to acupuncture. Participants were patients with stage I to III cancers seen in outpatient medical and radiation oncology clinics. They were drawn from three study cohorts that included 404 participants. We examined the reliability, validity, and responsiveness of the AES. The scores on the AES had internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha coefficient) of 0.95 and test-retest reliability of 0.62 over 4 weeks without acupuncture treatment. Those who had previously used acupuncture had higher AES scores compared to those who were acupuncture naive (12.4 vs 9.5, P = .002). AES scores were higher in those who reported willingness to participate in an acupuncture trial compared to those who did not want to participate in an acupuncture trial (11.5 vs 8.1, P acupuncture had higher AES scores than the general outpatient population (13.0 vs 9.8, P = .02), and expectancy increased during the course of acupuncture treatment (13.0 to 16.5, P acupuncture outcomes.

  16. Values and value education in Danish preschools

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Anders Skriver; Broström, Stig; Hansen, Ole Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Based on video observations, interviews and joint pedagogue/researcher analyses carried out in three Danish child cares, this chapter presents three common values: democracy, care and discipline, which were communicated, expressed and negotiated through interactions between pedagogues (In this pa...... pedagogical implications for values education...

  17. Effects of Trust in Parents, Expectations from Parents, and Perception of Parents’ Expectations on University Students’ Achievement Motivation

    OpenAIRE

    Fukuoka, Yoshiharu

    2017-01-01

    Expectations from parents encourage children, although such expectations could also become a burden on children. Effects of trust in parents, parents’ expectations, and perception of parents’ expectations on children’s achievement motivation were investigated. A questionnaire survey was conducted with university students (N=232). Results indicated that parents’ expectations about humanity were related to trust in parents, whereas parents’ expectations about academic achievement and career wer...

  18. The Global Value Chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Olav Jull

    The conference paper aims to develop the global value chain concept by including corporate internal value adding activities and competition to the basic framework in order to turn the global value chain into a strategic management tool......The conference paper aims to develop the global value chain concept by including corporate internal value adding activities and competition to the basic framework in order to turn the global value chain into a strategic management tool...

  19. Expected net gain data of low-template DNA analyses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Gittelson

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Low-template DNA analyses are affected by stochastic effects which can produce a configuration of peaks in the electropherogram (EPG that is different from the genotype of the DNA׳s donor. A probabilistic and decision-theoretic model can quantify the expected net gain (ENG of performing a DNA analysis by the difference between the expected value of information (EVOI and the cost of performing the analysis. This article presents data on the ENG of performing DNA analyses of low-template DNA for a single amplification, two replicate amplifications, and for a second replicate amplification given the result of a first analysis. The data were obtained using amplification kits AmpFlSTR Identifiler Plus and Promega׳s PowerPlex 16 HS, an ABI 3130xl genetic sequencer, and Applied Biosystem׳s GeneMapper ID-X software. These data are supplementary to an original research article investigating whether a forensic DNA analyst should perform a single DNA analysis or two replicate analyses from a decision-theoretic point of view, entitled “Low-template DNA: a single DNA analysis or two replicates?” (Gittelson et al., 2016 [1].

  20. Global-minded Human Resources and Expectations for Universities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Hiroshi

    Under the globalized economy, Japanese corporations compete with rivals of the western countries and emerging economies. And domestically, they face with deflation, falling birth-rate, an aging society, and shrinking market. So they need to foster and retain global-minded human resources who can play an active role in global business, and who can drive innovation. What Japanese corporations expect for global-minded human resources are ability to meet challenges, ability to think independently free from conventional wisdom, communication skills in foreign languages, interests in foreign cultures and different values, and so on. In order to foster global-minded human resources, Keidanren work with the 13 universities selected under the Japanese Government‧s “Global 30” projects to undertake “Global-minded Human Resources Development Projects” .