WorldWideScience

Sample records for expected stock returns

  1. Stock returns, macroeconomic variables and expectations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lúcio Linck; Roberto Frota Decourt

    2016-01-01

    ... returns in Brazil from 2000 to 2010. The study investigates the causality relationships among real stock returns, basic interest rates, GDP, ination and the market expectation of future behavior of these macroeconomic variables...

  2. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...... of funding liquidity constraints suggesting an economic channel for the effect....

  3. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  4. Contingent Claim-Based Expected Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Nicholas Zhiyao Chen; Strebulaev, Ilya A.

    2013-01-01

    We develop and test a parsimonious contingent claims model for cross-sectional returns of stock portfolios formed on market leverage, book-to-market equity, asset growth rate, and equity size. Since stocks are residual claims on firms' assets that generate operating cash flows, stock returns are cash flow rates scaled by the sensitivities of stocks to cash flows. Our model performs well because the stock-cash flow sensitivities contain economic information. Value stocks, high-leverage stocks ...

  5. Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Tauchen, George; Zhou, Hao

    of the time series variation in post 1990 aggregate stock market returns, with high (low) premia predicting high (low) future returns. Our empirical results depend crucially on the use of "model-free," as opposed to Black- Scholes, options implied volatilities, along with accurate realized variation measures...... constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed to daily, data. The magnitude of the predictability is particularly strong at the intermediate quarterly return horizon, where it dominates that afforded by other popular predictor variables, like the P/E ratio, the default spread, and the consumption...

  6. Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Zhou, Hao

    We find that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain more than fifteen percent of the ex-post time series variation in quarterly excess returns on the market portfolio over the 1990 to 2005 sample period, with high (low) premia predi...... to daily, data. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in both risk-aversion and volatility-risk play an important role in determining stock market returns.......We find that the difference between implied and realized variation, or the variance risk premium, is able to explain more than fifteen percent of the ex-post time series variation in quarterly excess returns on the market portfolio over the 1990 to 2005 sample period, with high (low) premia...... predicting high (low) future returns. The magnitude of the return predictability of the variance risk premium easily dominates that afforded by standard predictor variables like the P/E ratio, the dividend yield, the default spread, and the consumption-wealth ratio (CAY). Moreover, combining the variance...

  7. What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

    . We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged.......We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock's excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters...

  8. What is the Expected Return on a Stock?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

    . We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged.......We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock’s excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters...

  9. Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2008-01-01

    When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...... at business cycle peaks. The consumption growth rate loses predictive power when it is measured based upon other quarters. This is consistent with the insight of Jagannathan and Wang [2007. Journal of Finance 62, 1623-1661] that investors tend to review their consumption and investment plans during the end...

  10. What stock market returns to expect for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P A

    2000-01-01

    In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant

  11. Expected stock returns and volatility in a production economy: a theory and some evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Singal, Padamja; Smith, Stephen D.

    1999-01-01

    The sign of the relationship between expected stock market returns and volatility appears to vary over time, a result that seems at odds with basic notions of risk and return. In this paper we construct an economy where production involves the use of both labor and capital as inputs. We show that when capital investment is "sticky," the sign of the relation between stock market risk and return varies in accordance with the supply of labor but requires no time variation in preferences. In part...

  12. The Nexus between Analyst Forecast Dispersion and Expected Returns Surrounding Stock Market Crashes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terence Tai-Leung Chong

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The performance of analysts’ forecasts has attracted increasing attention in recent years. However, as yet, no empirical study has investigated the nexus between the analyst forecast dispersion (AFD and excess returns surrounding stock market crashes in any depth. This paper attempts to fill this void by estimating a Fama-French model regression with AFD as a factor. Instead of an expected linear relationship, a nonlinear U-shape relationship between the AFD and excess returns is found.

  13. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics. PMID:29190652

  14. Resurrecting the size effect : Firm size, profitability shocks, and expected stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    K. Hou (Kewei); M.A. van Dijk (Mathijs)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractRecent studies report that the size effect in the cross-section of stock returns has disappeared after the early 1980s. This paper shows that the disappearance of the size effect from realized returns can be attributed to unexpected shocks to the profitability of small and big firms. We

  15. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  16. Stakeholder relations and stock returns : On errors in investors' expectations and learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Borgers, A.C.T.; Derwall, J.M.M.; Koedijk, C.G.; Ter Horst, J.R.

    2013-01-01

    A significant number of institutional investors publicly state the belief that corporate stakeholder relations are associated with firm value in a manner that the financial market fails to understand. We investigate whether stakeholder information predicted risk-adjusted returns due to errors in

  17. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  18. Investment Plans and Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Owen Lamont

    1999-01-01

    Capital expenditure plans at the beginning of the year, from a US government survey of firms, explain more than three quarters of the variation in real annual aggregate investment growth between 1948 and 1993. The negative correlation of contemporaneous investment and stock returns is explained by the negative correlation of planned investment and subsequent stock returns. Unexpected revisions to aggregate investment (actual minus plan) within a year are essentially unrelated to current stock...

  19. Stock Return Synchronicity and Analysts’ Forecast Properties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joong-Seok Cho

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Using stock return synchronicity as a measure of a firm’s information environment, our research investigates how the firms’ stock return synchronicity affects analysts’ forecast properties for the accuracy and optimism of the analysts’ annual earnings forecasts. Stock return synchronicity represents the degree to which market and industry information explains firm-level stock return variations. A higher stock return synchronicity indicates the higher quality of a firm’s information environment, because a firm’s stock price reflects more market-level and industry-level information relative to firm-specific information. Our study shows that stock return synchronicity positively affects the forecast properties. Our finding shows that when stock return synchronicity is high, analysts’ annual earnings forecasts are more accurate and less optimistically biased.

  20. Which stocks are profitable? A network method to investigate the effects of network structure on stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kun; Luo, Peng; Sun, Bianxia; Wang, Huaiqing

    2015-10-01

    According to asset pricing theory, a stock's expected returns are determined by its exposure to systematic risk. In this paper, we propose a new method for analyzing the interaction effects among industries and stocks on stock returns. We construct a complex network based on correlations of abnormal stock returns and use centrality and modularity, two popular measures in social science, to determine the effect of interconnections on industry and stock returns. Supported by previous studies, our findings indicate that a relationship exists between inter-industry closeness and industry returns and between stock centrality and stock returns. The theoretical and practical contributions of these findings are discussed.

  1. Weather dan Pengaruhnya terhadap Stock Return

    OpenAIRE

    Bukit, Inka Natasya Hagaina; Riorini, Sri Vandayuli

    2012-01-01

    Research on psychology shows that sunny weather has effect toward mood. Some researchers found that mood has significant effect toward Stock return. This paper examines relationship between Weather in Indonesia, especially in Jakarta with Stock return of LQ 45 Index. This research examine relationship between Weather and Stock return directly and indirect (using Mood as intervening variable). This research analyze that relationship during 2009 to 2010. However, because Weather in Jakarta is r...

  2. Stock market returns, volatility, and future output

    OpenAIRE

    Hui Guo

    2002-01-01

    In this article, Hui Guo shows that, if stock volatility follows an AR(1) process, stock market returns relate positively to past volatility but relate negatively to contemporaneous volatility in Merton’s (1973) Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model. The model helps explain the recent finding that stock market volatility drives out returns in forecasting real gross domestic product growth because the predictive power of returns is hampered by their positive correlation with past volatilit...

  3. Legal institutions, strategic default, and stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Favara, G.; Schroth, E.; Valta, P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of legal institutions on stock returns. More specifically, we examine how differences in debt enforcement and creditor protection around the world affect stock returns of individual firms. We hypothesize that if legal institutions prevent shareholders from engaging in

  4. The Effects of Stock Dividend on Stock Return in Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ebrahim Abbasi

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This study is aimed at identifying the relationship between stock dividend issue and return rate of share of 100 firms from Tehran Stock Exchange during years 2007-2011 tending to issue stock dividend. Pearson correlation test was used to examine the relationship between stock dividend issues and return rate of share and results showed that there is no significant relationship between share return rate and the amount of stock dividend and also between stock dividend issue percentage and return rate of share.

  5. Incomplete information, idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Berrada, Tony Nicolas; Hugonnier, Julien

    2011-01-01

    We develop a q-theoretic model of investment under incomplete information that explains the link between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. When calibrated to match properties of the US business cycles as well as various firms and industry characteristics, the model generates a negative relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock returns. We show that conditional on earning surprises, the link is positive after good news and negative after bad news. This result provides new i...

  6. The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks

    OpenAIRE

    Venkat R. Eleswarapu

    2004-01-01

    We find that annual excess returns on the stock market index are negatively related to the returns of glamour stocks in the previous 36-month period. In contrast, neither returns of value stocks nor aggregate stock market returns, purged of glamour stock effects, have any predictive power. In addition, the excess returns on the aggregate market are negatively skewed when the prior returns of glamour stocks are high. Finally, the inclusion of term premium, default premium, aggregate dividend y...

  7. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  8. A model for stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Tao; Serota, R. A.

    2014-03-01

    We prove that Student’s t-distribution provides one of the better fits to returns of S&P component stocks and the generalized inverse gamma distribution best fits VIX and VXO volatility data. We further prove that stock returns are best fit by the product distribution of the generalized inverse gamma and normal distributions. We find Brown noise in VIX and VXO time series and explain the mean and the variance of the relaxation times on approach to the steady-state distribution.

  9. Stock return distribution in the BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Adu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Stock returns in emerging market economies exhibit patterns that are distinctively different from developed countries: returns are noted to be highly volatile and autocorrelated, and long horizon returns are predictable. While these stylized facts are well established, the assumption underlying the distribution of returns is less understood. In particular, the empirical literature continues to rely on the normality assumption as a starting point, and most asset pricing models tend to overstretch this point. This paper questions the rationale behind this supposition and proceeds to test more formally for normality using multivariate joint test for skewness and kurtosis. Additionally, the paper extends the literature by examining a number of empirical regularities for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS for short. Our main findings are that the distribution of stock returns for the BRICS exhibits peakedness with fatter and longer tails, and this is invariant to both the unit of measurement and the time horizon of returns. Volatility clustering is prevalent in all markets, and this decays exponentially for all but Brazil. The relationship between risk and return is found to be significant and risk premiums are prevalent in our sample.

  10. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  11. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  12. Testing of Dependencies between Stock Returns and Trading Volume by High Frequency Data

    OpenAIRE

    Piotr Gurgul; Robert Syrek

    2013-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a dependence analysis of returns, return volatility and trading volume for five companies listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange and five from the Warsaw Stock Exchange. Taking into account high frequency data for these companies, tests based on a comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance were conducted. The paper presents some patterns of causal and other relationships between stock returns, realized volatility and expected and unexpected...

  13. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Sørensen, Lars Qvigstad

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has documented that oil price changes lead the aggregate market in most industrialized countries, and has argued that it represents an anomaly - an underreaction to information that investors can profit from. I identify oil price changes that are caused by exogenous events and show that it is only these oil price changes that predict stock returns. The exogenous events usually correspond to periods of extreme turmoil - either military conflicts in the Middle East or OPEC colla...

  14. Long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvo Dajčman

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the fractal structure of the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns. The presence of long memory components in asset returns provides evidence against the weak-form of stock market efficiency. The starting working hypothesis that there is no long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns is tested by applying the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS (1992 test, Lo’s (1991 modified rescaled range (R/S test, and the wavelet ordinary least squares (WOLS estimator of Jensen (1999. The research showed that the WOLS estimator may lead to different conclusions regarding long memory presence in the stock returns from the KPSS and unit root tests or Lo’s R/S test. Furthermore, it proved that the fractal structure of individual stock returns may be masked in aggregated stock market returns (i.e. in returns of stock index. The main finding of the paper is that both the Croatian stock index Crobex and individual stocks in this index exhibit long memory. Long memory is identified for some stocks in the Hungarian stock market as well, but not for the stock market index BUX. Based on the results of the long memory tests, it can be concluded that while the Hungarian stock market is weakform efficient, the Croatian stock market is not.

  15. The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

    2017-03-01

    The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

  16. An Empirical Modelling of New Zealand Hospitality and Tourism Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Christine Lim; Felix Chan

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines the factor risk premiums of stock returns for the hospitality and tourism companies in New Zealand. The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) approach is used to investigate the expected return for stock portfolio with respect to market, macro (i.e., money supply and discount rate), and tourism factor sensitivities. Monthly stock prices, market index, tourism, and macroeconomic data are used in the study. The results indicate that the risk premiums for international tourism deman...

  17. 27 CFR 46.231 - Floor stocks tax return.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Floor stocks tax return... CIGARETTE PAPERS AND TUBES Floor Stocks Tax on Certain Tobacco Products, Cigarette Papers, and Cigarette Tubes Held for Sale on April 1, 2009 Filing Requirements § 46.231 Floor stocks tax return. Form 5000...

  18. Testing of Dependencies between Stock Returns and Trading Volume by High Frequency Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Gurgul

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with a dependence analysis of returns, return volatility and trading volume for five companies listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange and five from theWarsaw Stock Exchange. Taking into account high frequency data for these companies, tests based on a comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance were conducted. The paper presents some patterns of causal and other relationships between stock returns, realized volatility and expected and unexpected trading volume. There is a linear causality running from realized volatility to expected trading volume, and a lack of nonlinear dependence in the opposite direction. The authors detected strong linear and nonlinear causality from stock returns to expected trading volume. They did not find causality running in the opposite direction. In addition, the existence of fractional cointegration was examined. Despite the equality of the long memory parameters of realized volatility and trading volumes, they do not move together in the long term horizon.

  19. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known “event study” from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the “event study” methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1–2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events. PMID:26390434

  20. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriele Ranco

    Full Text Available Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements, but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%, but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  1. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  2. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    Full Text Available This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive, detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  3. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  4. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high

  5. Multifractal analysis of Moroccan family business stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, long-range temporal correlations at different scales in Moroccan family business stock returns are investigated. For comparison purpose, presence of multifractality is also investigated in Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) major indices: MASI which is the all shares index and MADEX which is the index of most liquid shares. It is found that return series of both family business companies and major stock market indices show strong evidence of multifractality. In particular, empirical results reveal that short (long) fluctuations in family business stock returns are less (more) persistent (anti-persistent) than short fluctuations in market indices. In addition, both serial correlation and distribution characteristics significantly influence the strength of the multifractal spectrums of CSE and family business stocks returns. Furthermore, results from multifractal spectrum analysis suggest that family business stocks are less risky. Thus, such differences in price dynamics could be exploited by investors and forecasters in active portfolio management.

  6. Weather-Induced Mood, Institutional Investors, and Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    William N. Goetzmann; Dasol Kim; Alok Kumar; Qin Wang

    2015-01-01

    This study shows that weather-based indicators of mood impact perceptions of mispricing and trading decisions of institutional investors. Using survey and disaggregated trade data, we show that relatively cloudier days increase perceived overpricing in individual stocks and the Dow Jones Industrial Index and increase selling propensities of institutions. We introduce stock-level measures of investor mood; investor optimism positively impacts stock returns among stocks with higher arbitrage co...

  7. Bank Stock Returns in Responding the Contribution of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nurazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of financial fundamentals information using CAMELS ratios and macroeconomics variables surrogated by interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate toward stock return. By employing panel data analysis (Pooled Least Squared Model, the results reveal that several financial ratios perform a bit contrary to the theory, in which the ratio of CAR shows positive sign but insignificantly contributes to stock returns. Also, the ratio of NPL does not affect the return. In fact, ROE and LDR positively and significantly contribute toward banks’ stock return. Meanwhile, NIM and BOPO show negative signs. The other macroeconomic variables, interest rate (IR, exchange rate (ER and inflation rate (INF are consistent with the a priori expectation, in which those variables negatively and significantly contribute to stock return of 16 banks, for the observation period from 2002 to 2011 in the Indonesian banking sector.

  8. Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Nyberg, Henri

    We explore the differences between the causal and noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) models in capturing the real activity-stock return-relationship. Unlike the conventional linear VAR model, the noncausal VAR model is capable of accommodating various nonlinear characteristics of the data....... In quarterly U.S. data, we find strong evidence in favor of noncausality, and the best causal and noncausal VAR models imply quite different dynamics. In particular, the linear VAR model appears to underestimate the importance of the stock return shock for the real activity, and the real activity shock...... for the stock return....

  9. Estimating Stocks Return with Decomposition of the Book-to-Market Ratio: Evidences from Bovespa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Ribeiro de Almeida

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The book-to-market (BM ratio differs across stocks because to differences in expected cashflows and expected returns. The central hypothesis is that the evolution of BM, in terms of past changes in price and book equity, contains information about future cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. This article used a database of Economática to extract a sample of non-financial companies shares listed on BOVESPA and test this hypothesis. The estimated regressions were performed monthly during the period July 1996 to June 2008. Both for large and mid caps as for small caps, the results do not favor this hypothesis and show that only the most recent BM is important to predict the assets returns. Furthermore, stock issues and repurchases are also related to future cashflows and it is expected to improve estimates of expected returns. However, the results provide no evidence favoring that.

  10. Daily happiness and stock returns: Some international evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Li, Xiao; Shen, Dehua; Teglio, Andrea

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we examine the relations between the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter and the stock market performance in 11 international stock markets. By partitioning this happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the happiest days, we first show that the contemporary correlation coefficients between happiness sentiment and index return in the 4 and most-happiness subgroups are higher than that in least, 2 and 3-happiness subgroups. Secondly, the happiness sentiment can provide additional explanatory power for index return in the most-happiness subgroup. Thirdly, the daily happiness can granger-cause the changes in index return for the majority of stock markets. Fourthly, we find that the index return and the range-based volatility of the most-happiness subgroup are larger than those of other subgroups. These results highlight the important role of social media in stock market.

  11. The effect of conservatism on accrual and stock return

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Somaye Sanechi Motlagh; Hajar Sanechi Motlagh

    2017-01-01

    ... for identifying economic affairs. Therefore, it is the intention of this research to study the aforementioned challenge through analyzing the relation between conservatism, accrual persistence asymmetry and stock return...

  12. EARNING MANAGEMENT, STOCK RETURN AND COMPANIES’ MERGER AND ACQUISITION

    OpenAIRE

    Sigit Handoyo; Fitria Rahmadani Putri

    2017-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to find out the practice earning management before merger and acquisitionannouncement. It also aimed to examine the differences of stock return before and after merger and acquisitionannouncement among companies that were listed on Indonesia stock exchange. The samples were 35 companiesthat did merger and acquisition and listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) period 2004–2013. Then, thedata analysis was performed by computer statistic program SPSS. These sample...

  13. Market Skewness Risk and the Cross Section of Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Young Chang, Bo; Christoffersen, Peter F.; Jacobs, Kris

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  14. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher......-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and conditional volatility. A Markov switching model describes the risk-return trade-off well. A number...... of variables have explanatory power for the states of the European stock markets....

  15. Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rates in Botswana | Lesotho ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates the effect of bilateral exchange rates on stock market returns in the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) measured by the domestic company index (DCI). To examine whether this effect exists or not, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, Impulse ...

  16. Stock Returns and Output Growth in Emerging and Advanced Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Paolo Mauro

    2000-01-01

    This paper studies the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns in a panel of emerging market economies and advanced economies. It finds that the correlation is as strong in emerging market economies as in advanced economies. Asset prices therefore contain valuable information to forecast output also in emerging market economies. Moreover, the paper finds that the strength of the correlation between output growth and lagged stock returns is significantly related to a number ...

  17. The Reaction of Stock Returns to News about Fundamentals

    OpenAIRE

    Tolga Cenesizoglu

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the reaction of stock returns to news about the state of the economy. We develop a general equilibrium asset pricing model where the investor learns about the growth rate of the economy through two sources of information, dividend realizations and regularly scheduled announcements about the state of the economy. We distinguish between dividend news and the unexpected part of the external signal and characterize the reaction of stock returns to news from these two sources o...

  18. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  19. The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2013-03-01

    The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

  20. Rational GARCH model: An empirical test for stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2017-05-01

    We propose a new ARCH-type model that uses a rational function to capture the asymmetric response of volatility to returns, known as the "leverage effect". Using 10 individual stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and two stock indices, we compare the new model with several other asymmetric ARCH-type models. We find that according to the deviance information criterion, the new model ranks first for several stocks. Results show that the proposed new model can be used as an alternative asymmetric ARCH-type model in empirical applications.

  1. The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. Marquering (Wessel); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting stock index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from

  2. Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends

    OpenAIRE

    Shiller, Robert; Campbell, John

    1988-01-01

    This paper presents estimates indicating that, for aggregate U.S. stock market data 1871-1986, a long historical average of real earnings is a good predictor of the present value of future real dividends. This is true even when the information contained in stock prices is taken into account. We estimate that for each year the optimal forecast of the present value of future real dividends is roughly a weighted average of moving average earnings and current real price, with between 2/3 and 3/4 ...

  3. Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Iqbal; Buddi Wibowo

    2017-01-01

    Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum), confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The a...

  4. Return and Volatility Spillovers Among Asian Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prashant Joshi

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examines the return and volatility spillover among Asian stock markets in India, Hong Kong, Japan, China, Jakarta, and Korea using a six-variable asymmetric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity–Baba, Engle, Kraft, and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK model during February 2, 2007, to February 29, 2010. The author finds evidence of bidirectional return, shock, and volatility spillover among most of the stock markets. The magnitude of volatility linkages is low indicating weak integration of Asian stock markets. The study finds that own volatility spillover is higher than cross-market spillover. The overall persistence of stock market volatility is highest for Japan (0.931 and lowest for China (0.824. The implication of weak integration is that investors will benefit from reduction of diversifiable risk.

  5. EARNING MANAGEMENT, STOCK RETURN AND COMPANIES’ MERGER AND ACQUISITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Handoyo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to find out the practice earning management before merger and acquisitionannouncement. It also aimed to examine the differences of stock return before and after merger and acquisitionannouncement among companies that were listed on Indonesia stock exchange. The samples were 35 companiesthat did merger and acquisition and listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX period 2004–2013. Then, thedata analysis was performed by computer statistic program SPSS. These samples were selected by usingpurposive sampling method. Analysis hypothesis used Independent sample t-test and Wilcoxon sign rankstest. The result of independent sample t-test showed that the companies tended to do earning managementbefore merger and acquisitions. While the result of Wilcoxon signed ranks test showed that there was nodifference between stock return before and after merger and acquisition announcement.

  6. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  7. Earnings quality measures and excess returns: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Hemmati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between earning quality measure and excess returns on selected firms trading on Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of this study is to find the relative advantage of income figures reported in formal financial statements. The study uses hedge return, six accounting ratios and three market ratios and performs the study over the period of 2001-2011 using 56 firms whose shares were traded on Tehran Stock Exchange. The proposed study uses regression analysis as well as structural equation modeling. The results of this study indicate that market based figures are more influencing than accounting based ratios on hedge return. In other words, hedge return for persistency index was more predictable than smoothness and abnormal accruals. However, on the contrary to what we expected, hedge return for accruals was not more than other accounting based figures.

  8. End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth-quarter or December) strongly predicts the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas economic growth...... during the rest of the year does not predict returns. End-of-the-year economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used to predict returns, are robust to the choice of macro variables, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples....... To explain these results, we show as the second main fi…nding of our paper that economic growth and growth in economic confidence (consumer con…dence and business con…dence) are strongly correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters. In summary, we therefore show that when economic...

  9. End-of-the-Year Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth-quarter or December) strongly predicts the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas economic growth...... during the rest of the year does not predict returns. End-of-the-year economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used to predict returns, are robust to the choice of macro variables, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples....... To explain these results, we show as the second main fi?nding of our paper that economic growth and growth in economic confidence (consumer con?dence and business con?dence) are strongly correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters. In summary, we therefore show that when economic...

  10. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  11. Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns Reactions: Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A possible explanation for this counter-intuitive result is that the market capitalization in BSE is dominated by commercial banks, which are also the main beneficiaries of the interest income from investment in risk-free Bank of Botswana Certificates. The observed positive reaction of aggregate stock returns to monetary policy ...

  12. Modeling stock return distributions with a quantum harmonic oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, K.; Choi, M. Y.; Dai, B.; Sohn, S.; Yang, B.

    2017-11-01

    We propose a quantum harmonic oscillator as a model for the market force which draws a stock return from short-run fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium. The stochastic equation governing our model is transformed into a Schrödinger equation, the solution of which features “quantized” eigenfunctions. Consequently, stock returns follow a mixed χ distribution, which describes Gaussian and non-Gaussian features. Analyzing the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index, we demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional stochastic process models, e.g., the geometric Brownian motion and the Heston model, with smaller fitting errors and better goodness-of-fit statistics. In addition, making use of analogy, we provide an economic rationale of the physics concepts such as the eigenstate, eigenenergy, and angular frequency, which sheds light on the relationship between finance and econophysics literature.

  13. A Hybrid Intelligent Method of Predicting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhter Mohiuddin Rather

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a novel method for predicting stock returns by means of a hybrid intelligent model. Initially predictions are obtained by a linear model, and thereby prediction errors are collected and fed into a recurrent neural network which is actually an autoregressive moving reference neural network. Recurrent neural network results in minimized prediction errors because of nonlinear processing and also because of its configuration. These prediction errors are used to obtain final predictions by summation method as well as by multiplication method. The proposed model is thus hybrid of both a linear and a nonlinear model. The model has been tested on stock data obtained from National Stock Exchange of India. The results indicate that the proposed model can be a promising approach in predicting future stock movements.

  14. Global economic growth and expected returns around the world: The end-of-the-year effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...... in the global economy at the end of the year predicts higher returns over the following year. It also predicts the global business cycle. When global economic growth at the end of the year is low, investors expect a worsening of the global business cycle and increase their required returns....

  15. SKEWNESS IN STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE DURING 2000 – 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IULIAN PANAIT

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Our paper investigates the symmetry in stock returns of the 30 most liquid companies traded on Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2000 – 2011 and also the most representative 5 market indices. Our daily data shows that skewness estimates are slightly negative for most indices and individual stocks, but only a few present values significantly different from the characteristics of a normal distribution. We compare our results with skewness estimates for 21 major and emerging stock market indices around the world and find that such results are similar to other low capitalization and trading volume markets. For all the Romanian and international assets studied, the Studentized-Range (St-R and Jarque-Bera (J-B tests reject the hypothesis of normal distribution of daily returns.

  16. A study on the effect of P/E and PEG ratios on stock returns: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Ali Lajevardi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of the ratios of P/E and PEG on stock returns of the firms accepted on Tehran Stock Exchange. The study uses regression and Pearson Correlation Coefficient based on the performance of 138 firms over the period 2004- 2009 according to the Iranian calendar to investigate the effects of P/E and PEG on stock returns. The study also uses the models originally proposed by Chahin and Choudhry (2010 [Chahin, S., & Choudhry, T. (2010. Price to earnings, growth radio and value growth based strategies. Social Science Research Network, 19(4.] to discuss the strategies of investing on stocks. The results show that the ratio of P/E had more effect on stock returns than the ratio of PEG and stocks returns had a direct relationship with P/E and an inverse relationship with PEG. In addition, the returns of growth stock were more than value stock.

  17. The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

  18. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    In this paper a two-component volatility model based on the component's first moment is introduced to describe the dynamic of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and persistent part of volatility respectively. Then the model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock m......, a positive or risk-premium effect exists between return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on return are also tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component accounts much more for volatility dynamic process than the volatile component. However the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most markets...

  19. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a two-component volatility model based on first moments of both components to describe the dynamics of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and the persistent part of volatility, respectively. The model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock ma...... markets. A positive or risk-premium effect exists between the return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for the return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on returns are tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component is much more important for the volatility dynamic process than is the volatile component. However, the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most...

  20. The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel

    2016-01-01

    During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.

  1. Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

    2017-07-01

    The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

  2. How well do financial and macroeconomic variables predict stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare...... their forecasting ability for stock returns, and we examine the forecasting variables' ability to reduce pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. A key result of the analysis is that the traditional pricedividend ratio performs surprisingly well compared to the many new forecasting variables. We also find...... that at short and mid-range horizons Lettau and Ludvigson's (2001a) consumption-aggregate wealth variable offers the strongest forecasting ability, although this variable's predictive ability is sensitive to the sample period chosen. At longer horizons, price-normalized variables such as the traditional price...

  3. Does firm size affect stock returns? Evidence from the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Batsirai Winmore Mazviona

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of the study is to investigate the relationship between firm size and stock returns for firms listed on the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (ZSE between June 2009 and July 2013. We adopt the regression model employed by Banz in 1981, with innovations. The regression is based on constructed portfolios, with market capitalization as the basis for portfolio construction. The portfolios comprise at most 5 stocks, and stocks are sorted in ascending order by market capitalization for selection into portfolios. The sample period spans from June 2009 to July 2013. We select the sample period beginning from 2009 because that is when the government of Zimbabwe demonetized the Zimbabwean dollar and adopted a basket of foreign currencies as legal tender. The data prior to 2009 is also distorted by hyperinflation and therefore is not reliable. The sample size covers 64 companies listed on the ZSE, of which 60 are industrial and 4 are mining companies. We find that the estimated coefficient for the firm size factor is not significant at the 5% level of significance. Therefore, firm size has a positive yet insignificant effect on stock returns for companies listed on the ZSE for the period June 2009 to July 2013. Contrary to the general empirical findings, larger firms on the ZSE tend to exhibit higher risk-adjusted returns than smaller firms.

  4. Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Iqbal

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum, confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The analysis is extended at individual stock-level using fixed-effect panel regression in which asset growth effect remains significant even with controlling other variables of stock return determinants. This study also explores further whether asset growth can be included as risk factor. Employing two-stage cross-section regression in Fama and Macbeth (1973, the result aligns with some prior studies that asset growth is not a new risk factor; instead the anomaly is driven by mispricing due to investors’ overreaction and psychological bias. This result imply that asset growth anomaly is general phenomenon that can be found at mostly all stock market but in Indonesia market asset growth anomaly rise from investors’ overreaction, instead of  playing as a factor of risk.

  5. Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Iqbal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum, confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The analysis is extended at individual stock-level using fixed-effect panel regression in which asset growth effect remains significant even with controlling other variables of stock return determinants. This study also explores further whether asset growth can be included as risk factor. Employing two-stage cross-section regression in Fama and Macbeth (1973, the result aligns with some prior studies that asset growth is not a new risk factor; instead the anomaly is driven by mispricing due to investors’ overreaction and psychological bias. This result imply that asset growth anomaly is general phenomenon that can be found at mostly all stock market but in Indonesia market asset growth anomaly rise from investors’ overreaction, instead of  playing as a factor of risk.

  6. An Empirical Examination of the Incremental Contribution of Stock Characteristics in UK Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Fletcher

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This study uses the Bayesian approach to examine the incremental contribution of stock characteristics to the investment opportunity set in U.K. stock returns. The paper finds that size, book-to-market (BM ratio, and momentum characteristics all make a significant incremental contribution to the investment opportunity set when there is unrestricted short selling. However, no short selling constraints eliminate the incremental contribution of the size and BM characteristics, but not the momentum characteristic. The use of additional stock characteristics such as stock issues, accruals, profitability, and asset growth leads to a significant incremental contribution beyond the size, BM, and momentum characteristics when there is unrestricted short selling, but no short selling constraints largely eliminates the incremental contribution of the additional characteristics.

  7. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  8. Using Production Based Asset Pricing to Explain the Behavior of Stock Returns Over the Business Cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Cochrane, John H.

    1989-01-01

    The investment return is defined as the real return that results from marginally increasing investment at date r, and then reaping the extra output and decreasing investment at date t+1 to leave the production plan for other dates unchanged. This paper constructs investment returns from investment data and a production function, and compares investment returns to stock returns, in order to explain forecasts of stock returns by business cycle related variables, and to explain forecasts of futu...

  9. Testing for Expected Return and Market Price of Risk in Chinese A-B Share Market: A Geometric Brownian Motion and Multivariate GARCH Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    stock markets. Models with dynamic of Geometric Brownian Motion are adopted, multivariate GARCH models are also introduced to capture the feature of time-varying volatility in stock returns. The results suggest that the different pric- ing can be explained by the difference in expected returns between...

  10. Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taly I

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

  11. Bivariate sub-Gaussian model for stock index returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabłońska-Sabuka, Matylda; Teuerle, Marek; Wyłomańska, Agnieszka

    2017-11-01

    Financial time series are commonly modeled with methods assuming data normality. However, the real distribution can be nontrivial, also not having an explicitly formulated probability density function. In this work we introduce novel parameter estimation and high-powered distribution testing methods which do not rely on closed form densities, but use the characteristic functions for comparison. The approach applied to a pair of stock index returns demonstrates that such a bivariate vector can be a sample coming from a bivariate sub-Gaussian distribution. The methods presented here can be applied to any nontrivially distributed financial data, among others.

  12. Investor sentiment and return comovements : Evidence from stock splits and headquarters changes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumar, A.; Page, J.; Spalt, O.G.

    2013-01-01

    We examine whether the trading activities of retail and institutional investors cause comovements in stock returns. Around stock splits, retail trading correlations (RTCs) decrease with stocks in the presplit price range and increase with stocks in the post-split price range. These shifts in RTCs

  13. Stock return, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in steel & iron subsector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Chirila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results obtained following the testing of five hypotheses regarding conditional return and volatility of the most listed European stocks in the steel & iron subsector. The following elements of the stocks are analysed: time variation of volatility, seasonality of return and volatility, relationship between return and volatility and volatility asymmetry. The results obtained confirm for all the analyzed stocks the existence of volatility variation in time, the lack of correlation between return and volatility, the existence of asymmetry phenomenon of volatility and the presence in some stocks of the seasonality effect both for return and volatility.

  14. The stocks at stake : return and risk in socially responsible investment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Galema, R.J.; Plantinga, A.; Scholtens, B.

    2008-01-01

    We relate US portfolio returns, book-to-market values and excess stock returns to different dimensions of socially responsible performance. We find that socially responsible investing (SRI) impacts on stock returns by lowering the book-to-market ratio and not by generating positive alphas. Our

  15. Effects of daylight-saving time changes on stock market returns and stock market volatility: rebuttal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D

    2013-02-01

    In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.

  16. Factors Affecting the Return Stock Company in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX LQ45 in Years 2012-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangki A. Sorongan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to determine the effect of partially and jointly independent variable of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM against the dependent variable on the stock return. Objects of this research were companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI LQ45 continuously for four years in the period 2012-2015. Companies that qualify for this research were 28 companies. Based on this research, the conclusions indicate that all four independent variables; Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM, either jointly or partially give the significant effect on return stock.

  17. Do MENA stock market returns follow a random walk process?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, three variance ratio tests: the standard variance ratio test, the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test, and the non-parametric rank scores test are adopted to test the random walk hypothesis (RWH of stock markets in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region using most recent data from January 2010 to September 2012. The empirical results obtained by all three econometric tests show that the RWH is strongly rejected for Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco. However, the standard variance ratio test and the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test reject the null hypothesis of random walk in Jordan and KSA, while non-parametric rank scores test do not. We may conclude that Jordan and KSA stock market are weak efficient. In sum, the empirical results suggest that return series in Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco are predictable. In other words, predictable patterns that can be exploited in these markets still exit. Therefore, investors may make profits in such less efficient markets.

  18. EFFECT OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT ON FUTURE RETURNS IN THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udoka Bernard Alajekwu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the effect of investor sentiment on future returns in the Nigerian stock market. The OLS regression and granger causality techniques were employed for data analyses. The results showed that (1 investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on stock market returns even after control for fundamentals such as Industrial production index, consumer price index and Treasury bill rate; (2 there is a uni-directional causality that runs from change in investor sentiment (ΔCCI to stock market returns (Rm. Derived finding showed that the inclusion of fundamentals increased the explanatory power of investor sentiment from 3.96% to 33.05%, though at both level, investor sentiment (ΔCCI has low explanatory power on stock market returns. The study posits existence of a dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and the behaviour of stock future returns in Nigeria such that higher sentiment concurrently leads to higher stock prices.

  19. A Study of Financial Performance and Stock Return in IPO Underpricing Phenomenon on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agus Irfani

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available It is widely believed that financial performance of listed companies on stock exchange might potentially affect long-term stock return. However, the impact of financial performance on underpric-ing is still in debate. The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of financial performance on underpricing at the same period and the effect of both financial performance and underpricing on the long-term stock return on the Indonesia stock exchange (IDX. By employing judgemental sampling method, the sample of this reseach includes 43 underpriced stocks taken from the population of 51 initially public offered stocks on the IDX during 2008-2010. This research uses multiple regression technique to test the hypothesis. This study concludes that not all financial performance ratios affect the underpricing and the long-term stock return in 2011. In addition, this study does not find any em-pirical evidence about the effect of underpricing on the long-term stock return. ";} // -->activate javascript

  20. Multiscale Analysis of the Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Fiedor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the strong complexity of financial markets, economics does not have a unified theory of price formation in financial markets. The most common assumption is the Efficient-Market Hypothesis, which has been attacked by a number of researchers, using different tools. There were varying degrees to which these tools complied with the formal definitions of efficiency and predictability. In our earlier work, we analysed the predictability of stock returns at two time scales using the entropy rate, which can be directly linked to the mathematical definition of predictability. Nonetheless, none of the above-mentioned studies allow any general understanding of how the financial markets work, beyond disproving the Efficient-Market Hypothesis. In our previous study, we proposed the Maximum Entropy Production Principle, which uses the entropy rate to create a general principle underlying the price formation processes. Both of these studies show that the predictability of price changes is higher at the transaction level intraday scale than the scale of daily returns, but ignore all scales in between. In this study we extend these ideas using the multiscale entropy analysis framework to enhance our understanding of the predictability of price formation processes at various time scales.

  1. An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okičić Jasmina

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

  2. PENGARUH STOCK SPLIT TERHADAP LIKUIDITAS DAN RETURN SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Sutrisno

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Research on stock splits has frequently been undertaken. The results vary, but fundamentally can be classified into two groups. First, the stock split is purely "cosmetic". Second, the stock split has a real effect on stocks. The difference between these opinions raises controversy. The purpose of this study is to examine whether stock splits influence stock liquidity and return of an individual stock as well as in a group of stocks as a portfolio. Overall, the results of this study show that stock splits did influence stock price, trading volume and bid-ask spread but did not influence stock risk and abnormal return from the point of view of an individual stock as well as in a group of stocks as a portfolio. The test of a relationship between bid-ask spread and stock price, trading volume and stock risk for each stock shows that all three variable did not significantly affect the bid-ask spread. On the other hand, the test of a relationship in a portfolio reveals that only stock prices significantly affect the bid-ask spread. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Penelitian mengenai stock split sudah sering dilakukan. Hasil dari penelitian- penelitian tersebut bermacam - macam, tetapi pada dasarnya dapat dibedakan menjadi dua kelompok. Pertama, stock split dinyatakan murni hanya sebagai "kosmetik". Kedua, stock split dinyatakan mempunyai efek yang nyata terhadap saham. Perbedaan pendapat ini sering menimbulkan kontroversi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji kembali apakah betul stock split dapat mempengaruhi likuiditas dan return saham baik ditinjau secara individual untuk masing - masing saham maupun seluruh saham sebagai sebuah portofolio. Secara keseluruhan, hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa stock split hanya mempengaruhi harga, volume perdagangan dan persentase spread, tetapi tidak mempengaruhi varians dan abnormal return baik ditinjau secara individual maupun sebagai sebuah portofolio. Sedangkan pengujian hubungan antara

  3. Factors Affecting Stock Returns of Firms Quoted in ISE Market: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şebnem Er

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Several studies, explaining the factors affecting stock returns, have been published both in developed and developing countries. In many of these papers, either cross-sectional or time series methods have been applied. In this study, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Methods have been conducted to explain the factors affecting stock returns of 64 manufacturing firms that are continuously quoted in ISE during the period of 2003-2007. The results indicate that stock performance, financial structure, activity and profitability ratios can be used to explain the stock returns as well as the oil prices, economic growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply.

  4. Empirical Essays on the Stock Returns, Risk Management, and Liquidity Creation of Banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y. Xu (Ying)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis consists of three studies that respectively investigate the stock returns, risk management, and liquidity creation of banks. Chapter 2 focuses on the cross-section of bank stock returns and found that pricing factors such as leverage and beta, shown to be irrelevant to

  5. Stock returns and Friday the 13th effect in five African countries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study is concerned with Friday the 13th and daily stock market returns in five African countries. Using the MSCI Global Equity Indices during various periods, the evidence overwhelmingly suggests that there is no Friday the 13th effect. Keywords: Friday the 13th, stock returns, anomalies, Africa ...

  6. Effects of The Japan Disaster 2011 on the Stock Return and Trading Volume in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sulistyo Wahyu Wijanarko

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to analyze international disaster event on the capital market activities, especially on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Researcher analyzed the market reaction to the Japan disaster on March 11, 2011. This research using the data 45 companies (LQ-45 in Indonesia Stock Exchange and the event date is ten days before and ten days after the disaster. From the analysis showed that the event is not signifi cantly affecting the stock return and trading volume activity between pre and post the event. These result indicate that the Japan disaster give no impact to the investor on Indonesia Stock Exchange.

  7. Investigating the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Farzinfar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market. In this study, all required data are collected from aware shareholders and provide a sampling of 130 questionnaires, the data collected over the period 2010-2011 using test methods such as computer software, data analysis and statistical methods to answer research questions. According to research result through questionnaires and tests, there is a significant relationship between stock returns and the auditor's opinion, in fact, for aware shareholders of the company the auditor’s opinion has a special message. This message is based on the results of study hypothesis in comparison with previous research with regard to changes in the questionnaire and provides assumptions that are more detailed. The first finding is that unqualified audit report has a positive impact on stock returns of companies with a medium to low degree. Adverse audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Disclaimer of audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Finally, qualifying paragraphs, which modified the items of income statement items have more impact in comparison with qualifying paragraphs which modified the Balance Sheet items.

  8. An Application of GARCH while investigating volatility in stock returns of the World.

    OpenAIRE

    Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz; Hasan, Syed Akif; Osman, Ms. Amber

    2012-01-01

    A healthy stock market is a sign of sound and healthy economy. Stock market is a volatile market affected, at times directly and most often indirectly, by many micro and macroeconomic players. Of these players interest rates and exchange rates are among the ones undertaken in this study. The rationale behind this study is to ascertain the volatility in stock returns of various stock exchanges in relevance to interest rates and exchange rates over a range of 8 countries for assorted periods. G...

  9. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  10. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  11. Negative Return-Volume Relationship in Asian Stock Markets: Figarch-Copula Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Naeem

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We explore the potential dependence among different Asian stock markets, using several different statistical models. Extreme return-volume dependence in Hong Kong Seng Index, Bombay Stock Exchange, Indonesia Composite Index and Bursa Malaysia has been examined by using FIGARCH-Copula and GARCH-Copula approach. We have used Gaussian, Student-t, Frank, Clayton, Survival Clayton and Gumbel copulas. Based on Akaike information criterion (AIC, we found that using FIGARCH model for return series improves the results of copula parameter estimation. According to our finding, Hong Kong and Indian stock indices showed weak upper tail dependence between return and volume. Further, we have found that the extremely low returns for Malaysia and Indonesia stock indices are followed by high volumes, providing evidence of leverage effect. Our investigation shows that Malaysia and Indonesia stock indices are sensitive to bad news rather than good news.

  12. Identifying the role of expectation errors in value glamour return using Fscore

    OpenAIRE

    Ruman, A. (Asif)

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Existing literature documents that a portfolio of value stocks outperforms a portfolio of glamour stocks and market portfolio. Researchers have different opinions regarding, “what derives premium returns from a long short value glamour strategy?” The central objective of this paper is to seek the source of value glamour return effect. We have mix r...

  13. Macroeconomic Variables and Stock Market Returns: Panel Analysis from Selected ASEAN Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Nurasyikin Jamaludin; Shahnaz Ismail; Syamimi Ab Manaf

    2017-01-01

      This paper aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply, and exchange rate on both conventional and Islamic stock market returns in the three selected ASEAN countries...

  14. The Effects of Asset Management and Profitability on Stock Returns: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Stock Markets in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly Midesia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at empirically examining whether there are differences in stock returns between conventional and Islamic stock returns In Indonesia for the period 2010-2013. This study also attempts to explore the effect of asset management and profitability both stock returns in Indonesia. Annual pooled data gathered from the annual financial reports of 100 conventional and Islamic stock returns, which were published by the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2013 were used and analyzed by using the independent t-test and panel multivariate regression analysis. The result shows that there was no difference in stock returns between the conventional and Islamic stock markets. Additionally, the study documents that only profitability, which is measured by market ratio, was found to have an influence on the conventional stock markets. Meanwhile, as for Islamic stock market, only management of assets was found to have a significant effect on the stock return. These findings imply that investors who are investing in both Islamic and conventional markets would gain similar returns. However, in predicting and stabilizing the stock markets, both investors and policy makers should focus on the profitability for the conventional and management of assets for the Islamic stock market.

  15. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  16. How the 52-week high and low affect option-implied volatilities and stock return moments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Driessen, J.J.A.G.; Lin, T.C.; van Hemert, O.

    2013-01-01

    We provide a new perspective on option and stock price behavior around 52-week highs and lows. We analyze whether option-implied volatilities (IVs) change when stock prices approach or break through their 52-week high or low. We also study the effects of highs and lows on a stock’s beta and return

  17. Predictability in the cross-section of European bank stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Drobetz, Wolfgang; Erdmann, Thomas; Zimmermann, Heinz

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the impact of individual bank fundamental variables on stock market returns using data from a panel of 235 European banks from 1991 to 2005. The sample period marks a significant transition in the European banking sector, characterized by higher competition, lower profit margins in the traditional interest-related business and increasing non-interest income in terms of fees and commissions. In panel regressions, we relate bank stock returns to fundamental accounting in...

  18. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk.

  19. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk. PMID:28771514

  20. Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongjie; Zhang, Yuzhao; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we advocate the provincial TV audience rating as the novel proxy for the provincial investor sentiment (PIS) and investigate its relation with stock returns. The empirical results firstly show that the PIS is positively related to stock returns. Secondly, we provide direct evidence on the existence of home bias in China by observing that the provincial correlation coefficient is significantly larger than the cross-provincial correlation coefficient. Finally, the PIS can explain a large proportion of provincial comovement. To sum up, all these findings support the role of the non-traditional information sources in understanding the "anomalies" in stock market.

  1. The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Akhavi Babi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

  2. Evidence of Macroeconomic Policy Effects over Company-Sector Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara Madaleno

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Given that stock markets may act as an economy mirror, it is explored the sensitivity of company-sector-specific stock returns to macroeconomic news reflecting different economic environments for the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Australian markets between March 1993 and February 2013 using monthly data. Results seem to indicate that portfolio investors need to be aware that movements in the market index is the best predictor to forecast stock returns of individual companies and sectors in developed economies. Sentiment influences individual company’s returns of the utilities sector, even if these are considered of limited growth and stable earnings, for UK, USA and Australia, turning investor confidence a relevant variable to be included. Information increases about industrial production have no influence on company and sector stocks, thus not affecting investor’s decision in developed countries. As for Japan, results seem to indicate that the higher the need of oil imports of a country, the higher will be the positive impact of oil price changes over company returns. Finally, the riskless interest rate has no effect on sector stock returns independently of the country under analysis. For developed economies, we confirm the finding that stocks cannot be used as a hedge against inflation.

  3. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  4. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  5. The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

    2010-07-01

    A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

  6. The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquering, W.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954-1998, we

  7. The Mauritius stock exchange: Sectoral analysis, risk and return ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Companies listed on the Mauritius Stock Exchange are classified into seven sectors of the economy, namely Banking & Insurance, Industry, Investments, Sugar, Commerce, Leisure & Hotels and Transport. Significant improvements in market capitalisation and turnover are noted in all sectors except the Transport sector.

  8. Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock

    OpenAIRE

    Chang, Kuang-Liang; Chen, Nan-Kuang; Leung, Charles Ka Yui

    2009-01-01

    This paper confirms that a regime-switching model out-performs a linear VAR model in terms of understanding the system dynamics of asset returns. Impulse responses of REIT returns to either the federal funds rate or the interest rate spread are much larger initially but less persistent. Furthermore, the term structure acts as an amplifier of the impulse response for REIT return, a stabilizer for the housing counterpart under some regime, and, perhaps surprisingly, almost no role for the stock...

  9. Randomness in denoised stock returns: The case of Moroccan family business companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we scrutinize entropy in family business stocks listed on Casablanca stock exchange and market index to assess randomness in their returns. For this purpose, we adopt a novel approach based on combination of stationary wavelet transform and Tsallis entropy for empirical analysis of the return series. The obtained empirical results show strong evidence that their respective entropy functions are characterized by opposite dynamics. Indeed, the information contents of their respective dynamics are statistically and significantly different. Obviously, information on regular events carried by family business returns is more certain, whilst that carried by market returns is uncertain. Such results are definitively useful to understand the nonlinear dynamics on returns on family business companies and those of the market. Without a doubt, they could be helpful for quantitative portfolio managers and investors.

  10. Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns : The Case of British Soccer Betting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2008-01-01

    Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts' expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes

  11. Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns : The Case of British Soccer Betting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2008-01-01

    Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts’ expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes

  12. The effect of asymmetric information risk on returns of stocks traded on the BM&FBOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Souza Siqueira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study sought to analyze information asymmetry in the Brazilian stock market and its relation with the returns required from portfolios through the metrics volume-synchronized probability of informed trading. To do this, the study used actual data from the transactions of 142 stocks on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA, within the period from May 1, 2014, to May 31, 2016. The results point out a high flow toxicity level in the orders of these stocks. In segment analyses of the stock market listing, data suggest there is no clue that stocks from the theoretically more overt segments have a lower toxicity level of order flows. The justification for this finding lies on the negative correlation observed between the market value of stocks and the toxicity level of orders. To test the effect of asymmetric information risk on stock returns, a factor related to the toxicity level of orders was added to the three-, four-, and five-factor models. Through the GRS test, we observed that the combination of factors that optimize the explanation of returns of the portfolios created was the one taking advantage of the factors market, size, profitability, investment, and information risk. To test the robustness of these results, the Average F-test was used in data simulated by the bootstrap method, and similar estimates were obtained. It was observed that the factor related to the book-to-market index becomes redundant in the national scenario for the models tested. Also, it was found that the factor related to information risk works as a complement to the factor size and that its inclusion leads to an improved performance of the models, indicating a possible explanatory power of information risk on portfolio returns. Therefore, data suggest that information risk is priced in the Brazilian stock market.

  13. The Cross-Section of Realized Stock Returns: The Pre-COMPUSTAT Evidence.

    OpenAIRE

    Davis, James L

    1994-01-01

    Using a database that is free of survivorship bias, this article finds that book-to-market equity, earnings yield, and cash flow yield have significant explanatory power with respect to the cross-section of realized stock returns during the period from July 1940 through June 1963. There is a strong January seasonal in the explanatory power of these variables, even though small stocks are, by construction, excluded from the sample. Copyright 1994 by American Finance Association.

  14. Time Series Analysis of the Relationship between Macroeconomic Factors and the Stock Market Returns in Pakistan

    OpenAIRE

    ALAM, Zaheer; RASHID, Kashif

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between Karachi stock market 100 index and macroeconomic variables, i.e., inflation, industrial production, money supply, exchange rate and interest rate. The long term relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns has been analyzed by using Johnson Cointegration test, Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) and Phillip Perron (PP) tests. The Autoregressive Conditional heteroskedasticity Lagrange Multiplier (ARCH LM)...

  15. Global economic growth and expected returns around the world: The end-of-the-year effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...

  16. Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Frimpong, Joseph Magnus; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for t...

  17. The Relationship between Intellectual Capital and Income Smoothing and Stock Returns (Case in Medical Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. H. Vakilifard

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationship between intellectual capital, income smoothing and stock returns. We are capturing income smoothing through total accruals. Income smoothing firms have significantly higher abnormal returns around earnings announcement. In the knowledge economy, intellectual capital has become one of the primary sources of competitive advantage for a firm. Given the remarkable shift in the underlying production factors of a business within the new knowledge economy, it is important for firms to be aware of the elements of intellectual capital that would lead to value creation. So we associated relationship between intellectual capital and income smoothing and stock returns. The sample includes 108 firm-year observations from 2006 to 2011.We have used five variables: three variables to measure IC, and two variables to measure stock returns and income smoothing. Initial data analyses were conducted through SPSS. The results of our study showed that there was relationship between physical capital and stock returns but they did not provide support for the positive relationship between structural capital, human capital and firm’s financial performance.

  18. Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Intraday Evidence from Indian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Paital

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between stock return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spread within the scope of mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH and sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH in the Indian stock market using high frequency 5-minute data set over the period of 2 July 2012 to 31 December 2012. This is the first kind of study in India using bid-ask spread as an additional information variable along with trading volume to investigate the relationship with stock return volatility. Our empirical findings provide evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between return volatility and trading volume, and also between return volatility and bid-ask spread. Moreover, the results of Granger causality test show that the information content of trading volume and bid-ask spread are useful for predicting stock return volatility. Our results indicate that information arrival to investors tends to follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. This finding is consistent with the sequential information arrival hypothesis and contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

  19. Jump Tails, Extreme Dependencies, and the Distribution of Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor

    We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. The theory underlying our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotic arguments for directly identifying the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps, together with conventional long...... market portfolio, we find that the distributions of the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps are both generally heavy-tailed and not necessarily symmetric. Our estimates also point to the existence of strong dependencies between the market-wide jumps and the corresponding systematic jump tails for all...... of the stocks in the sample. We also show how the jump tail dependencies deduced from the high-frequency data together with the day-to-day temporal variation in the volatility are able to explain the “extreme” dependencies vis-a-vis the market portfolio....

  20. The testing of causal stock returns-trading volume dependencies with the aid of copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Henryk Gurgul; Roland Mestel; Robert Syrek

    2013-01-01

    This paper is concerned with a dependence analysis of returns, return volatility and trading volume for five companies listed on the Vienna Stock Exchange. Taking into account the high frequency data for these companies, tests based on a comparison of Bernstein copula densities using the Hellinger distance were conducted. It is worth noting that these tests can be used in general settings since there is no restrietion on the dimension of the data. The parameter which must be set up for the te...

  1. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  2. Changes In Stock Returns And Trading Volume Of American Depositary Receipts Around Their U.S. Stock Exchange Listing Switches

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kam C Chan; Annie Wong

    2012-01-01

    .... stock exchange to a more prestigious U.S. stock exchange; namely from the NASDAQ or American Stock Exchange to the New York Stock Exchange or from the American Stock Exchange to the NASDAQ since year 2000...

  3. On conservation of renewable resources with stock-dependent return and nonconcave production

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.J. Olson (Lars); S. Roy (Santanu)

    1996-01-01

    textabstractThis paper analyzes conservation and extinction of renewable resources when the production function is nonconcave and the return function depends on consumption and the resource stock. The paper focuses on the efficiency of global conservation, a safe standard of conservation, and

  4. The Degree of Financial Liberalization and Aggregated Stock-return Volatility in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Umutlu, M.; Akdeniz, L.; Salih, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total

  5. The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models

  6. Modeling and Forecasting Stock Return Volatility and the Term Structure of Interest Rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.D. de Pooter (Michiel)

    2007-01-01

    markdownabstractThis dissertation consists of a collection of studies on two topics: stock return volatility and the term structure of interest rates. _Part A_ consists of three studies and contributes to the literature that focuses on the modeling and forecasting of financial market

  7. The Risk of Individual Stocks’ Tail Dependence with the Market and Its Effect on Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guobin Fan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional beta is only a linear measure of overall market risk and places equal emphasis on upside and downside risks, but actually the latter is always much stronger probably due to the trading mechanism like short-sale constraints. Therefore, this paper employs the nonlinear measure, tail dependence, to measure the extreme downside risks that individual stocks crash together with the whole market and investigates whether such tail dependence risks will affect stock returns. Our empirical evidence based on Shanghai A shares confirms that most stocks display nonnegligible tail dependence with the whole market, and, more importantly, such tail dependence risks can indeed provide additional information beyond beta and other factors for asset pricing. In cross-sectional regression, it is proved that this tail dependence does help to explain monthly returns on Shanghai A shares, whereas the time-series regression further indicates that mimicking portfolio returns for tail dependence can capture strong common variation of Shanghai A stock returns.

  8. An analysis of seasonality fluctuations in the oil and gas stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Surajo Sanusi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the existence of seasonality anomalies in the stock returns of the oil and gas companies on the London Stock Exchange. It employs F-test, Kruskal–Wallis and Tukey tests to examine days-of-the-week effect. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity specification was also employed to investigate both the days-of-the-week and months-of-the-year effects. The analysis had been extended to some key FTSE indices. Our results showed no evidence of any regularity or seasonal fluctuation in the oil and gas stock returns despite the seasonal changes of demand in the companies’ products. However, January effect has been observed in FTSE All Share and FTSE 100 indices.

  9. A study on relationship between the return of value/growth portfolio and market return: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Mashhadi Ramezanali

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between the returns of two value and growth portfolios and the return of market on 15 selected firms on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2011. The study divides the firms into two groups in terms of the ratios of price on earning as well as price on book value into two groups of value and growth portfolios. Using some regression analysis, the study has determined a positive and meaningful relationship between value portfolio and market return when the market is on the upside but this relationship is not meaningful during the bear session. The results indicate that during the bull sessions, value portfolios provide better investment opportunities than growth ones do.

  10. Systematic Risk Factors for Australian Stock Market Returns: a Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazharul H. Kazi

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the systematic risk factors for the Australian stock market by applyingthe cointegration technique of Johansen. In conformity with the finance literature andinvestors’ common intuition, relevant a priori variables are chosen to proxy for Australiansystematic risk factors. The results show that only a few systematic risk factors are dominantfor Australian stock market price movements in the long-run while short-run dynamics are inplace. It is observed that the linear combination of all a priori variables is cointegratedalthough not all variables are significantly influential. The findings show that bank interestrate, corporate profitability, dividend yield, industrial production and, to a lesser extent, globalmarket movements are significantly influencing the Australian stock market returns in thelong-run; while in the short-run it is being adjusted each quarter by its own performance,interest rate and global stock market movements of previous quarter.

  11. Return prediction in small capitalization companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun Cox

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This report analyzes return prediction in small capitalization companies on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange over the period from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2015. Well-established fundamental company characteristics and additional small capitalization specific characteristics were regressed against the returns of 104 small capitalization companies. The results show contrary predictability than what is seen in prior studies, which focused on larger companies. The results highlight the difference in the nature of returns earned by small caps and provide insight into unique predictive characteristics that can be used by investors and analysts of small capitalization companies.

  12. Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

    2017-03-01

    The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

  13. Modelling time-varying volatility in the Indian stock returns: Some empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trilochan Tripathy

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper models time-varying volatility in one of the Indian main stock markets, namely, the National Stock Exchange (NSE located in Mumbai, investigating whether it has been affected by the recent global financial crisis. A Chow test indicates the presence of a structural break. Both symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models suggest that the volatility of NSE returns is persistent and asymmetric and has increased as a result of the crisis. The model under the Generalized Error Distribution appears to be the most suitable one. However, its out-of-sample forecasting performance is relatively poor.

  14. The value of social media for predicting stock returns preconditions, instruments and performance analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nofer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Michael Nofer examines whether and to what extent Social Media can be used to predict stock returns. Market-relevant information is available on various platforms on the Internet, which largely consist of user generated content. For instance, emotions can be extracted in order to identify the investors' risk appetite and in turn the willingness to invest in stocks. Discussion forums also provide an opportunity to identify opinions on certain companies. Taking Social Media platforms as examples, the author examines the forecasting quality of user generated content on the Internet.

  15. Wealth, Labour Income, Stock Returns and Government Bond Yields, and Financial Stress in the Euro Area

    OpenAIRE

    Ricardo M. Sousa

    2011-01-01

    I show that when the ratio of asset wealth to human wealth falls, investors become more exposed to idiosyncratic shocks and demand higher stock and government bond risk premia. I find that the residuals from the cointegrating vector among asset wealth and labour income, wy, predict both future stock and bond returns in the Euro Area. Consequently, it can be used to track time-variation in risk premium. The results are robust to the inclusion of control variables and vis-a-vis other benchmark ...

  16. The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Chirilă

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The European Central Bank stipulates that a financial system is stable if the financial risks are evaluated and rewarded correctly and if the economic and financial shocks are absorbed. When analyzing the return and volatility of the stock exchanges we may ascertain that a stock exchange is stable if there is a connection between return and volatility and if the shocks determined by the new positive and negative information do not cause significant changes of the volatility. We took into consideration the values of the indices of stock markets from Holland (AEX, Belgium (BEL, Romania (BET, Hungary (BUX, Germany (DAX, France (CAC, Czech Republic (PX, Slovakia (SAX, Austria (ATX, Estonia (OMXT, Latvia (OMXR and Lithuania (OMXV. In order to test the relationship between return-volatility and volatility asymmetry we estimated a GJR-GARCH-M model. The results confirm the lack of existence of a correlation between return and volatility for the entire period under analysis and the existence of the volatility asymmetry.

  17. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  18. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  19. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  20. Earnings management and Stock Market Return: An Investigation of Lean against the Wind Hypothesis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Sajjad Khan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to investigate the “lean against the wind hypothesis”. For this purpose the relationship of earnings management to that of the aggregate stock market return was investigated. Data for the year 2005 to 2009 was examined and Panel Data techniques were applied on the data set. F-statistics were used to check for appropriateness of the model, Housman test were used to finally decide for fixed effect model. Results of the paper were against the existence of lean against the wind behavior of the firms towards the aggregate under valuation of stock market returns. These Results were in favor of the past study of Cohen and Zarowin (2011.Keywords: Earnings management, Discretionary accruals, Modified Jones model, KSE

  1. Quantifying the cross-sectional relationship between online sentiment and the skewness of stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Dehua; Liu, Lanbiao; Zhang, Yongjie

    2018-01-01

    The constantly increasing utilization of social media as the alternative information channel, e.g., Twitter, provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. In this paper, we employ the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter as the proxy for the online sentiment dynamics and investigate its association with the skewness of stock returns of 26 international stock market index returns. The empirical results show that: (1) by dividing the daily happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the most happiness days, the skewness of the Most-happiness subgroup is significantly larger than that of the Least-happiness subgroup. Besides, there exist significant differences in any pair of subgroups; (2) in an event study methodology, we further show that the skewness around the highest happiness days is significantly larger than the skewness around the lowest happiness days.

  2. The Determinants of Future Bank Stock Returns in Eight Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiyoun An

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We examine which traditional asset pricing variables together with bank-specific accounting variables explain the cross-sectional variation of future bank stock returns, using a firm-level data of eight Asian countries. Our empirical evidence shows that exchange rate risk, firm size, the book-to-market ratio, and the net income ratio are important in explaining future bank stock returns during normal times. However, during the Global Financial Crisis period, different variables such as local market beta, illiquidity risk, equity ratio, and off-balance sheets ratio were statistically significant. Thus, researchers and policy practitioners should monitor these variables during normal times as well as during times of crisis.

  3. Do Industries Lead the Stock Market? Gradual Diffusion of Information and Cross-Asset Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Hong, Harrison; Torous, Walter; Valkanov, Rossen

    2002-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that the gradual diffusion of information across asset markets leads to cross-asset return predictability. Using thirty-four industry portfolios and the broad market index as our test assets, we establish several key results. First, a number of industries such as retail, services, commercial real estate, metal, and petroleum lead the stock market by up to two months. In contrast, the market, which is widely followed, only leads a few industries. Importantly, an industry...

  4. Negative Celebrity Endorsement Publicity and Stock Returns: The Importance of Proactive Firm Reactions

    OpenAIRE

    Hock, Stefan Johannes Michae

    2015-01-01

    Nowadays, about one fourth of all prime time commercials in the United States feature celebrity endorsers. Previous research has identified numerous benefits of this powerful marketing strategy. Unfortunately, celebrities have been increasingly involved in negative publicity in the recent past. Using event study methodology, I examine the influence of negative celebrity endorser publicity on immediate and subsequent stock returns, covering 59 events during a 25 year period from 1988 to 2012. ...

  5. Book-to-Market Equity, Financial Leverage, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Iulian Obreja

    2013-01-01

    I propose a new dynamic model of the firm that links operating leverage to both value premium and book-leverage premium in stock returns. Value firms are low-productivity firms with either high operating leverage or high financial leverage. Firms with high operating leverage maintain low book leverage ratios. When operating leverage is economically significant, both value firms and low book-leverage firms can have high equity risk premiums. In particular, value premium becomes positive while ...

  6. An artificial walk down Wall Street : can intraday stock returns be predicted using artificial neural networks?

    OpenAIRE

    Bøvre, Jens Olve; Viervoll, Peder Kristian

    2009-01-01

    Financial markets are complex evolved dynamic systems. Due to its irregularity, financial time series forecasting is regarded as a rather challenging task. In recent years, artificial neural network applications in finance, for such tasks as pattern recognition, classification, and time series forecasting have dramatically increased. The objective of this paper is to present this powerful framework and attempt to use it to predict the stock return series of four publicly listed...

  7. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  8. ANALISIS RETURN, ABNORMAL RETURN, AKTIVITAS VOLUME PERDAGANGAN DAN BID-ASK SPREAD SAHAM DI SEPUTAR PENGUMUMAN STOCK SPLIT (Studi pada Perusahaan Manufaktur di BEJ

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. TAUFIQ NOOR ROKHMAN

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Event study is a study which analyze any market reactions to an event which its information is published as announcement. The stock split can influence the market depend on the existence of the content of the information in the stock split phenomenon or not. If the stock split contains information then the market will react and vice versa. The objective of this research is to find out the difference of return, abnormal return, trade volume activity, and stock’s bid-ask spread before, in the moment, after the stock split announcement. The research sample is done by purposive sampling method, and there are 24 manufacturing companies which announce stock split between 1999-2001. Statistical experiment used is T-test experiment (paired two samples for means. The Observation period which is done in 11 day, consist of 5 day before, 1 day in the moment, and 5 day after the stock split. The result of this research shows that there is a significant difference between return and abnormal return in the period of between at the moment, and after the stock split. The result in the before-after stock split period shows that there is no significant difference. The result in the variable activity of stock’s trade volume shows that there is no signification difference in the before-at the moment and after period, but in the result of before-after period show that there is significant difference there. And the result of bid-ask spread variable shows that there is significant different in the before-at the moment and after period of stock split, but in the before-after period the result shows that there is no significant different there. And the result of bid-ask spread variable shows that there is significant different in the before-at the moment and after period of stock split, but in the before-after period the result shows that there is no significant different there. Cumulatively, this research gives a conclusion that stock split have no

  9. Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichl, Lukáš; Kaizoji, Taisei; Yamano, Takuya

    2007-08-01

    Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.

  10. The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

    2015-06-01

    The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

  11. Value Effect in Indonesian Stock Returns: The Implications for the Equity Mutual Fund Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Kristianto Utomo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We extend the persistence and pervasiveness of the presence of value effect to Indonesian stock returns in the last two decades by utilizing data set that is relatively free of survivor bias and selection bias. Our finding shows that value portfolios have been able to outperform growth portfolios. Furthermore, the presence of the effect as an asset pricing factor, along with the size effect, can significantly explain the returns of the aggregate equity mutual funds in Indonesia and unveil that the equity mutual fund industry does not provide sufficient risk-adjusted return to cover trading costs and fund expenses. Our proposition is that the equity mutual fund valuation will be better off to apply simpler model shown in this paper to capture the value premium as opposed to the general application of traditional valuation method.

  12. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  13. A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. Fung

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a considerable interest in the Bayesian approach for explaining investors' behaviorial biases by incorporating conservative and representative heuristics when making financial decisions, (see, for example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998. To establish a quantitative link between some important market anomalies and investors' behaviorial biases, Lam, Liu, and Wong (2010 introduced a pseudo-Bayesian approach for developing properties of stock returns, where weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks and stock prices. In response to the recent global financial crisis, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis. Properties of stock returns during the financial crisis and recovery from the crisis are established. The proposed model can be applied to investigate some important market anomalies including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during financial crisis. We also explain in some detail the linkage between these market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases during financial crisis.

  14. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination of the d......This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...

  15. Trade Credit, Future Earnings, and Stock Returns: A Self-Dealing Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jigao Zhu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Chinese listed firms are characterized by a great magnitude of long-duration accounts receivable from controlling shareholders and their affiliates, and they often do not make bad debt allowances. On many occasions, these receivables are never collected. We find that firms with a great magnitude of accounts receivable demonstrate a low level of future profitability and low stock returns. It does not appear that the low earnings persistence of these firms is responsible for their poor future performance as predicted by the accrual anomaly, because the firms also report low concurrent earnings. In the context of the Chinese stock market, we interpret the results as being consistent with self-dealing through trade credit by controlling shareholders. This study contributes to the self-dealing literature by identifying a more subtle channel of expropriation of minority shareholders in China.

  16. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  17. Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    procedure is illustrated with an application to daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index covering a period of more than ninety years. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the LM tests strongly reject the assumption of constancy of the unconditional variance. Second, the results...... show that the long-memory property in volatility may be explained by ignored changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecast accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all...

  18. Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2014-01-01

    is illustrated with an application to 22,986 daily returns of the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index covering a period of more than ninety years. The main conclusions are as follows. First, the LM tests strongly reject the assumption of constancy of the unconditional variance. Second, the results show...... that the apparent long memory property in volatility may be interpreted as changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecasting accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all horizons for eight...

  19. International Sign Predictability of Stock Returns: The Role of the United States

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nyberg, Henri; Pönkä, Harri

    We study the directional predictability of monthly excess stock market returns in the U.S. and ten other markets using univariate and bivariate binary response models. Our main interest is on the potential benefits of predicting the signs of the returns jointly, focusing on the predictive power...... from the U.S. to foreign markets. We introduce a new bivariate probit model that allows for such a contemporaneous predictive linkage from one market to the other. Our in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting results indicate superior predictive performance of the new model over the competing models...... by statistical measures and market timing performance, suggesting gradual diffusion of predictive information from the U.S. to the other markets....

  20. End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods...... quarters of the year. Our findings suggest that expected returns, risk aversion, and economic growth are particularly related at the end of the year, when we also expect consumers׳ portfolio adjustments to be concentrated......., and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) , a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other...

  1. Network analysis of returns and volume trading in stock markets: The Euro Stoxx case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brida, Juan Gabriel; Matesanz, David; Seijas, Maria Nela

    2016-02-01

    This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanning tree (MST) concept is introduced, by adding the role of trading volume to the traditional approach which only includes price returns. Additionally, we use symbolization methods to the raw data to study the behavior of the market structure in different, normal and critical, situations. The hierarchical organization of the network is derived, and the MST for different sub-periods of 2002-2014 is created to illustrate how the structure of the market evolves over time. From the structural topologies of these trees, different clusters of companies are identified and analyzed according to their geographical and economic links. Two important results are achieved. Firstly, as other studies have highlighted, at the time of the financial crisis after 2008 the network becomes a more centralized one. Secondly and most important, during our second period of analysis, 2008-2014, we observe that hierarchy becomes more country-specific where different sub-clusters of stocks belonging to France, Germany, Spain or Italy are found apart from their business sector group. This result may suggest that during this period of time financial investors seem to be worried most about country specific economic circumstances.

  2. THE EFFECT OF ACQUISITION ON THE STOCK RETURNS OF ACQUIRING COMPANIES: EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF ACQUISITIONS OCCURED THROUGH THE PERMISSION OF CAPITAL MARKET BOARD ON THE STOCK RETURNS OF ACQUIRING COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEVENT ÇITAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A merger can be defined as the economical and legal integration of two or more firms. On the other hand, an acquisiton is the transfer of all asssets and liabilities of the target firm to the acquiring firm. In the literature, merger and acquisition concepts can be used interchangeably. Firms tend to merge for the sake of creating snergy, competitive advantage, diversification, increasing firm value etc. Mergers and acquisitions are sometimes in favour of acquiring firms’ stock holders and sometimes target firms’ stock holders. Merger gains change, depending on the type of the merger and form of payment. In this study, mergers that occured through the permission of Capital Market Board have been used for the analyses. Of the mergers which have the permission, acquiring firms that are listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange have been considered and postacquisition buy and hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns have been calculated. It is concluded that postacquisition abnormal returns aren’t statistically significant. On the other hand, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year and 2 year buy and hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of the acquiring firms that use different payment methods are not statistically different from each other, on the basis of same return horizon. Two different methods of abnormal return calculation don’t make any difference in postacquisition abnormal returns, either.

  3. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  4. GARCH based artificial neural networks in forecasting conditional variance of stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Portfolio managers, option traders and market makers are all interested in volatility forecasting in order to get higher profits or less risky positions. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most popular models in modelling volatility are GARCH type models because they can account excess kurtosis and asymmetric effects of financial time series. A standard GARCH(1,1 model usually indicates high persistence in the conditional variance, which may originate from structural changes. The first objective of this paper is to develop a parsimonious neural networks (NN model, which can capture the nonlinear relationship between past return innovations and conditional variance. Therefore, the goal is to develop a neural network with an appropriate recurrent connection in the context of nonlinear ARMA models, i.e., the Jordan neural network (JNN. The second objective of this paper is to determine if JNN outperforms the standard GARCH model. Out-of-sample forecasts of the JNN and the GARCH model will be compared to determine their predictive accuracy. The data set consists of returns of the CROBEX index daily closing prices obtained from the Zagreb Stock Exchange. The results indicate that the selected JNN(1,1,1 model has superior performances compared to the standard GARCH(1,1 model. The contribution of this paper can be seen in determining the appropriate NN that is comparable to the standard GARCH(1,1 model and its application in forecasting conditional variance of stock returns. Moreover, from the econometric perspective, NN models are used as a semi-parametric method that combines flexibility of nonparametric methods and the interpretability of parameters of parametric methods.

  5. Interactions between the Exchange Rates and the Differential of the Stock Returns between Romania and US during the Global Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The relation between the foreign exchange markets and the stock markets is still a controversial subject in the specialized literature. Recent studies revealed the changes that occur in this relation during the financial crisis. In this paper we approach the interactions between the exchange rates and the differentials of the stock returns between Romania and the US in the period of the global crisis. We find some significant differences in this relations during the main stages of the crisis.

  6. Return volatility interval analysis of stock indexes during a financial crash

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Wei-Shen; Liaw, Sy-Sang

    2015-09-01

    We investigate the interval between return volatilities above a certain threshold q for 10 countries data sets during the 2008/2009 global financial crisis, and divide these data into several stages according to stock price tendencies: plunging stage (stage 1), fluctuating or rebounding stage (stage 2) and soaring stage (stage 3). For different thresholds q, the cumulative distribution function always satisfies a power law tail distribution. We find the absolute value of the power-law exponent is lowest in stage 1 for various types of markets, and increases monotonically from stage 1 to stage 3 in emerging markets. The fractal dimension properties of the return volatility interval series provide some surprising results. We find that developed markets have strong persistence and transform to weaker correlation in the plunging and soaring stages. In contrast, emerging markets fail to exhibit such a transformation, but rather show a constant-correlation behavior with the recurrence of extreme return volatility in corresponding stages during a crash. We believe this long-memory property found in recurrence-interval series, especially for developed markets, plays an important role in volatility clustering.

  7. ANALYSIS OF THE RETURNS AND VOLATILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL STOCK LEADERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica Chirila

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The last years have been faced with a blasting development of the Socially Responsible Investments (SRI worldwide even though the economic environment has been shaken by a global economic and financial crisis. The aim of this paper is to analyze the return and risk characteristics of the sustainably managed companies that pay particular attention to the environment responsibility in comparison with those that pay more attention to the corporate governance and respectively to the social responsibility. These characteristics are useful both to the individual and institutional investors as well as to the portfolio managers. For the comparative analysis we started from the study of descriptive characteristics of return and risk of indices portfolios of the environmental social and governance stock leaders and we focused on their univariate econometric modelling by means of the heteroskedastic models. The studies undertaken until now are centered on the performance obtained by the portfolios of sustainable indices and on the modelling of the volatility of sustainable indices. We would like to investigate the characteristics of return and risk of the assets of the sustainably managed companies that could attract active investors towards the sustainably managed companies that pay particular attention to the environment responsibility in comparison with those paying increased attention to the corporate governance and respectively to the social responsibility.

  8. Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ardia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys’ prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread—the deviation from the equilibrium relationship—which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.

  9. Exchange rate effect on stock returns in the East European emerging markets: A quantile regression approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živkov Dejan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates relationship between returns of stock prices and exchange rate changes in four East European emerging markets (Serbia, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic using weekly data from January 2003 to June 2013. Two theories explain the connection in the economic literature - flow-oriented and portfolio-balance models, without a finite and conclusive answer on which one is predominant. Considering our relatively large sample period which also includes world crisis outbreak, the used empirical data have been compromised by structural breaks and heterogeneous unconditional distribution. To avoid parameter bias and wrong conclusions, authors used four auto-regressive distributed lag ADL(2,2 models assessed with quantile regression method, robust to non-normality problems. The results indicate that relationship between these variables is in accordance with portfolio-balance models in three out of four analyzed countries.

  10. Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Albaity

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, firms listed on Bursa Malaysia were allowed to repurchase their shares on the open market. The number of companies engaged in share buyback is increasing and has become a tool to stabilize price by signaling undervaluation of the share. However, studies on share buyback in Malaysia are limited to the price performance surrounding the buyback events. This study aims to fill this gap by examining long-run price performance after the actual share buyback event over a sampling period of 2 years from 2009 to 2010 for Malaysian firms listed on FTSE Bursa Malaysia. There is no evidence to conclude that there exist long-term abnormal returns using the calendar-time portfolio approach that support the inefficient market hypothesis. On the contrary, buy-and-hold method was found to be significant supporting that the Malaysian stock market is semi-strong efficient.

  11. Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Moya-Martínez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further, the link between movements in interest rates and industry equity returns is stronger at the coarsest scales. This finding is consistent with the idea that investors with long-term horizons are more likely to follow macroeconomic fundamentals, such as interest rates, in their investment decisions.

  12. Influences of Seasoned Equity Offerings on Stock Return of Ho Chi Minh Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Viet Tien

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigated the impact of seasoned equity offerings (SEO on stock return of listed companies in Ho Chi Minh City market using the method “event study” which has been basically formed by Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay (1997. The sample includes 332 SEOs from 2007 to 2010. The main findings show evidence that the Ho Chi Minh City market was not efficient in terms of the semi-strong form because the price has increased significantly on the ex-right date, day 0. In an opposite way, the market also reacted significantly negatively from T-4 to T-2. There are some significant impacts of timing on issue methods – equity right issues were in priority for favorable time and issues as “dividend by stocks” were chosen during unfavorable time. Keywords: Efficient Market Hypothesis, event study, Seasoned Equity Offerings

  13. Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

  14. Analysis of value creation by eva® and stock return of real estate companies in brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Rangner Vasconcelos

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last years, the real estate industry in Brazil grew and consolidated, causing the opening of capital of several companies in this segment. This scenario raises the need to evaluate the financial and the value creation of this sector. Faced with this situation, the present study aims to verify what is the relationship between Economic Value Added (EVA® and stock return of the construction industry that make up the Indix BM&FBOVESPA Real Estate (IMOB. As for methodological procedures, it is a bibliographical research, descriptive and as well as a multicaso study, contemplating nine companies that compose said index in 2015. The ability to generate value of this sector was analyzed through the Economic Value Added (EVA®, in which information was collected from the companies analyzed for the financial years 2010 to 2014, with the purpose of obtaining Return on Investment (ROI, Economic Value Added (EVA® and Stock Return. In general, the results of the survey that the average performance of companies, in those years, represents the destruction of value, provided by the impact of the cost of capital, which was higher than the net results of the Companies. Lastly, nominal EVA® and stock return are negatively correlated. On the other hand, residual ROI and stock return are Positively correlated significantly.

  15. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  16. Modeling Markov switching ARMA-GARCH neural networks models and an application to forecasting stock returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür

    2014-01-01

    The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100). Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray's MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray's MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  17. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  18. Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns : an event study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, B.; Peenstra, W.

    2009-01-01

    We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000-2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for

  19. Influences on the Intention to Enter Higher Education: The Importance of Expected Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, Maria Eliophotou; Markadjis, Elias; Theodoropoulos, Nikolaos; Socratous, Michalis

    2017-01-01

    Research points to several determinants of the private demand for higher education, which include individual, social, economic, and institutional variables. Of these variables, economic factors are considered to be highly relevant, especially in the current financial crisis. The paper investigates the link between expected rates of return to…

  20. Extreme returns and the contagion effect between the foreign exchange and the stock market: Evidence from Cyprus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Georgoutsos, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article we apply the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the correlation of extreme returns for two inherently unstable markets; the foreign exchange and the stock market. We also derive the corresponding VaR estimates from more 'traditional' methods

  1. An Investigation of the impact of interest rates and interest rate volatility on Australian financial sector stock return distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faff, R.; Kremmer, M.; Hodgson, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH-M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the

  2. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  3. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......We present a new dividend-adjusted blue chip index for the Danish stock market covering the period 1985-2002. In contrast to other indices on the Danish stock market, the index is calculated on a daily basis. In the first part of the paper a detailed description of the construction of the index...

  4. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfaoui Mongi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies. Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

  5. Stock market returns and clinical trial results of investigational compounds: an event study analysis of large biopharmaceutical companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Thomas J

    2013-01-01

    For biopharmaceutical companies, investments in research and development are risky, and the results from clinical trials are key inflection points in the process. Few studies have explored how and to what extent the public equity market values clinical trial results. Our study dataset matched announcements of clinical trial results for investigational compounds from January 2011 to May 2013 with daily stock market returns of large United States-listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Event study methodology was used to examine the relationship between clinical research events and changes in stock returns. We identified public announcements for clinical trials of 24 investigational compounds, including 16 (67%) positive and 8 (33%) negative events. The majority of announcements were for Phase 3 clinical trials (N = 13, 54%), and for oncologic (N = 7, 29%) and neurologic (N = 6, 24%) indications. The median cumulative abnormal returns on the day of the announcement were 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.3, 13.4%; P = 0.02) for positive events and -2.0% (95% CI: -9.1, 0.7%; P = 0.04) for negative events, with statistically significant differences from zero. In the day immediately following the announcement, firms with positive events were associated with stock price corrections, with median cumulative abnormal returns falling to 0.4% (95% CI: -3.8, 12.3%; P = 0.33). For firms with negative announcements, the median cumulative abnormal returns were -1.7% (95% CI: -9.5, 1.0%; P = 0.03), and remained significantly negative over the two day event window. The magnitude of abnormal returns did not differ statistically by indication, by trial phase, or between biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms. The release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and has meaningful effects on market value for large biopharmaceutical companies. Stock return underperformance due to negative events is greater in magnitude and persists longer than

  6. Stock market returns and clinical trial results of investigational compounds: an event study analysis of large biopharmaceutical companies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas J Hwang

    Full Text Available For biopharmaceutical companies, investments in research and development are risky, and the results from clinical trials are key inflection points in the process. Few studies have explored how and to what extent the public equity market values clinical trial results.Our study dataset matched announcements of clinical trial results for investigational compounds from January 2011 to May 2013 with daily stock market returns of large United States-listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Event study methodology was used to examine the relationship between clinical research events and changes in stock returns.We identified public announcements for clinical trials of 24 investigational compounds, including 16 (67% positive and 8 (33% negative events. The majority of announcements were for Phase 3 clinical trials (N = 13, 54%, and for oncologic (N = 7, 29% and neurologic (N = 6, 24% indications. The median cumulative abnormal returns on the day of the announcement were 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.3, 13.4%; P = 0.02 for positive events and -2.0% (95% CI: -9.1, 0.7%; P = 0.04 for negative events, with statistically significant differences from zero. In the day immediately following the announcement, firms with positive events were associated with stock price corrections, with median cumulative abnormal returns falling to 0.4% (95% CI: -3.8, 12.3%; P = 0.33. For firms with negative announcements, the median cumulative abnormal returns were -1.7% (95% CI: -9.5, 1.0%; P = 0.03, and remained significantly negative over the two day event window. The magnitude of abnormal returns did not differ statistically by indication, by trial phase, or between biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms.The release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and has meaningful effects on market value for large biopharmaceutical companies. Stock return underperformance due to negative events is greater in magnitude and persists longer

  7. Multinational telecommunications operators : impact of market factors and foreign currency exchange rate variations in their stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Maria da Conceição T. F. Monteiro H.

    2012-01-01

    Mestrado em Finanças Firms are exposed to foreign exchange risk when the results of their projects depend on future exchange rates and those exchange rates can not be fully anticipated. Through the last 50 years, exchange risk management has received increasing attention in both corporate practice and literature. Firms are also exposed to other market factors, domestic and internationally, with a major impact on their stock returns. During the past decade the telecommunications sector has ...

  8. Comovements of Returns and Volatility in International Stock Markets: A High-Frequency Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piplack, J.; Beine, M.; Candelon, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes common factors in the continuous volatility component, co-extreme and co-jump behavior of a sample of stock market indices. In order to identify those components in stock price processes during a trading day we use high-frequency data and techniques. We show that in most of the

  9. Influence Analysis of Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Debt To Equity Ratio (DER), and current ratio (CR), Against Corporate Profit Growth In Automotive In Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd. Heikal; Muammar Khaddafi; Ainatul Ummah

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this research to analyze the effect of Return On Asset, Return On Equity, Net Profit Margin, Debt To Equity Ratio and Current Ratio toward growth income either simultaneously or partially on automotive companies that were listed in Indonesia stock exchange. Independent variables used in this research were Return On Asset, Return On Equity, Net Profit Margin, Debt To Equity Ratio and Current Ratio and dependent variable in this research was growth incom. The data used in this re...

  10. Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilde, M; Doerner, K F; Hartl, R F

    2011-12-01

    The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances.

  11. Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilde, M.; Doerner, K.F.; Hartl, R.F.

    2011-01-01

    The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances. PMID:23543641

  12. Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manas Pandey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

  13. The effects of common risk factors on stock returns: A detrended cross-correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Yang, Bingchan

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between Fama and French three factors and the return of American industries on the basis of cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). Qualitatively, we find that the return series of Fama and French three factors and American industries were overall significantly cross-correlated based on the analysis of a statistic. Quantitatively, we find that the cross-correlations between three factors and the return of American industries were strongly multifractal, and applying MF-DCCA we also investigate the cross-correlation of industry returns and residuals. We find that there exists multifractality of industry returns and residuals. The result of correlation coefficients we can verify that there exist other factors which influence the industry returns except Fama three factors.

  14. Stock Return and Cash Flow Predictability: The Role of Volatility Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Xu, Lai; Zhou, Hao

    risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it cannot forecast dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based “structural” factor GARCH model permits much more accurate...

  15. THE EXPECTABLE MODEL OF PARAMETRIC RELIABILITY FOR POWERED ELECTROMAGNETIC UNITS OF RAILWAY ROLLING STOCK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. O. Kostin

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic model of parametric reliability of power electromagnetic valve contactors of rolling stock which helps to evaluate the probability of failures in condition of switching a contactor (the tractive force during the whole process of operation should be greater than the resulting counteracting force is proposed in the paper.

  16. Chasing the deal with the money: Measuring the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of private equity funds to maximize their internal rate of return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Scarpati

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A number of scholars of private equity (“PE” have attempted to assess the ex-post returns, or performance, of PEs by adopting an ex-post perspective of asset pricing. In doing so a set of phenomena has been recognized that is thought to be specific to the PE sector, such as “money-chasing deal phenomenon” (Gompers and Lerner, 2000 and “performance persistence” (Lerner and Schoar, 2005. However, based on their continuing use of an ex-post perspective, few scholars have paid attention to the possible extent to which these and other PE phenomena may affect expected returns from PE investments. To address this problem this article draws on an ex-ante perspective of investment decision-making in suggesting how a number of drivers and factors of PE phenomena may produce “abnormal returns”, and that each of those drivers and factors should therefore be considered in accurately assessing the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of PE investments. In making these contributions we examined a private equity investment of a regional PE in Italy and administered a telephone questionnaire to 40 PEs in Italy and the UK and found principally that while size is the most important driver in producing abnormal returns illiquidity alone cannot explain the expected returns of PE investments (cf. Franzoni et al., 2012. Based on our findings we developed a predictive model of PE decision-making that draws on an ex-ante perspective of asset pricing and takes into account PE phenomena and abnormal returns. This model extends the work of Franzoni et al. (2012, Jegadeesh et al. (2009, and Korteweg and Sorensen (2010 who did not consider the possible influence of PE phenomena in decision-making and will also help PE managers in making better-informed decisions.

  17. Injured workers' construction of expectations of return to work with sub-acute back pain: the role of perceived uncertainty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Alison M; Polak, Emily; Young, Richard; Schultz, Izabela Z

    2012-03-01

    Little is known about the formation of expectations of return to work (RTW) from the perspective of injured workers with back injuries. This modified grounded theory study uses a biopsychosocial approach that considers the workers' complex social circumstances, to unpack the multidimensional construct of expectations of RTW from the injured worker's perspective. Initial semi-structured interviews were conducted with 18 individuals with sub-acute back pain, who were off work between 3 and 6 months. Follow-up interviews were conducted with 7 participants for the purposes of member checking. The interview data was coded, compared and analyzed over the course of data collection, until saturation was reached. Data analysis revealed that expectations of return-to-work are constructed based on perceived uncertainty which subsumes five inter-related categories (1) perceived lack of control over the return-to-work process, (2) perceived lack of recognition by others of the impact of the injury, (3) perceived inability to perform the pre-injury job, (4) fear of re-injury, and (5) perceived need for workplace accommodations. Expectations, once formed, were influenced by the worker's experience of coping with perceived uncertainty. Perceived uncertainty plays a key role in injured workers' formation of expectations of return-to-work. Implications are discussed regarding how this perceived uncertainty plays a role in the development of (re)injury prevention and rehabilitation programs. The importance of further research on perceived uncertainty is presented, along with potential future research considerations.

  18. Behavior of Stock Price Variability over Trading and Nontrading Periods, and Daily Return Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumiyana Sumiyana

    2007-09-01

    This study concludes that return variance over trading and nontrading periods, along with overnight and lunch break nontrading session, and the first and second trading session, has differed significantly. In addition, daily return volatility is also not identical significantly. Subsequently, this study used size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and up-down market as control variables. This study contradicts to all prior studies. This study especially suggests contra evidence in comparisons with previous concepts and theories in regards to size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and up-down market as control variables.

  19. Stock Index Returns' Density Prediction using GARCH Models: Frequentist or Bayesian Estimation?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L.F. Hoogerheide (Lennart); D. David (David); N. Corre (Nienke)

    2011-01-01

    textabstractUsing well-known GARCH models for density prediction of daily S&P 500 and Nikkei 225 index returns, a comparison is provided between frequentist and Bayesian estimation. No significant difference is found between the qualities of the forecasts of the whole density, whereas the Bayesian

  20. The pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk in stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cosemans, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk. The predictive power of the market variance risk premium for returns is driven by the correlation risk premium and the systematic part of individual variance premia. Furthermore, I find that aggregate volatility risk

  1. Expected Rate of Return on the Personal Investment in Education of No-Fee Preservice Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuemin

    2013-01-01

    Return on personal investment is an important factor affecting the decision to invest in education. This article analyzes the personal education costs of no-fee preservice students, estimates and forecasts the return on their personal education investment, and compares the costs and benefits of for-fee preservice students and nonteaching students.…

  2. Association between illness perceptions and return-to-work expectations in workers with common mental health symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvvik, Camilla; Øverland, Simon; Hysing, Mari; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Reme, Silje E

    2014-03-01

    Mental health symptoms (MHSs) may affect people's work capacity and lead to sickness absence and disability. Expectations and perceptions of illness have been shown to influence return to work (RTW) across health conditions, but we know little about illness perceptions and RTW-expectations in MHSs. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between illness perceptions and RTW-expectations in a group struggling with work participation due to MHSs. Cross-sectional associations between illness perceptions and return to work expectations at baseline were analyzed for 1,193 participants who reported that MHSs affected their work participation. The study was part of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of job focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) combined with supported employment (IPS). Participants were from a working age population with diverse job status. There was a strong and salient relationship between illness perceptions and RTW-expectations. When adjusting for demographic and clinical variables, the components consequences, personal control, identity and illness concern remained significantly associated with uncertain and negative RTW-expectations. Less illness understanding remained significantly associated with uncertain RTW-expectations, while timeline and emotional representations remained significantly associated with negative RTW-expectations. In the fully adjusted model only the consequences component (believing that illness has more severe consequences) remained significantly associated with RTW-expectations. Openly asked, participants reported work, personal relationships and stress as main causes of their illness. In people with MHSs who struggle with work participation, perceptions and beliefs about their problems are strongly associated with their expectations to return to work.

  3. Expectations, Worries and Wishes: The Challenges of Returning to Home after Initial Hospital Rehabilitation for Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noe, Bodil Bjørnshave; Bjerrum, Merete; Angel, Sanne

    2014-01-01

    Literature highlights the barriers and problems that individuals who sustain traumatic spinal cord injury (TSCI) meet when they attempt to resume everyday life after hospital rehabilitation. However, what do patients think about before returning home, and what should professionals encourage...... patients to address while the patient is hospitalized in order to balance the patient’s expectations and to reveal what is of importance to the patient. This qualitative study explores the expectations, wishes and worries patients have before they return home after hospital rehabilitation due to TSCI....... Eight Danish residents aged 25-75 years, admitted for initial rehabilitation at the Spinal Cord Injury Center of Western Denmark, participated in an individual interview before returning home. The transcribed interviews were analyzed according to inductive content analysis. Transversal analyses revealed...

  4. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    and non-parametric jump detection statistics constructed from high-frequency intra- day data. A sequence of relatively simple-to-implement moment-based tests involving various transforms of the daily returns speak directly to the import of different features of the under- lying continuous-time processes......We provide an empirical framework for assessing the distributional properties of daily specu- lative returns within the context of the continuous-time modeling paradigm traditionally used in asset pricing finance. Our approach builds directly on recently developed realized variation measures...... that might have generated the data. As such, the tests may serve as a useful diagnostic tool in the specification of empirically more realistic asset pricing models. Our results are also directly related to the popular mixture-of-distributions hypoth- esis and the role of the corresponding latent information...

  5. Impact of Ethical Screening on Risk and Returns: the Case of Constructed Moroccan Islamic Stock Indexes

    OpenAIRE

    BOUSALAM, Issam; HAMZAOUI, Moustapha

    2016-01-01

    Despite the increasing attention given to Islamic investment, there is still existing few empirical papers that examined the performance and volatility of Islamic Funds and indices in comparison to their conventional unscreened counterparts. These studies provide mixed evidence with regards to risk and returns of Islamic funds and indices. This paper aims to expand the literature on this subject by studying the Moroccan case considering the recent introduction of Islamic finance in the countr...

  6. Weather effects on stock returns and volatility in South Asian markets

    OpenAIRE

    Sheikh, Muhammad Fayyaz; Shah, Syed Zulfiqar Ali; Mahmood, Shahid

    2017-01-01

    We study the effect of mood-proxy variables on index returns and volatility in six South Asian markets. Our mood-proxy variables include six weather (temperature, humidity, cloud cover, air pressure, visibility, and wind speed), three weather indicator variables (fog, thunder storm and rain or drizzle) and two biorhythmic variables (SAD and lunar phases). We adopt a robust approach and attempt to select the best parsimonious econometric model for each market. Our findings suggest that mood-pr...

  7. Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Likidite Ölçülerinin Karşılaştırılması ve Likidite Volatilitesi Hisse Senedi Getirisi Arasındaki İlişki (Comparison of Liquidity Measures and The Relationship Between Volatility of Liquidity and Stock Returns in Turkish Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cüneyt AKAR

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to determine the relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity in Turkish Stock Market. It is also investigated whether various liquidity measures sort the stocks in the same way according to their liquidities. The data used in the study contains the closing prices, trading volumes and free floating of the stocks that are included in Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100 and covers the period from 28.02.2011 to 18.11.2014. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH and Autoregressive Moving Average models (ARMA are used to perform empirical analysis. According to the results, it can not be determined the clear significant relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity. Results also show that while stock size and Amihud illiquidity criteria sort the stocks in the same way, stock return standard deviation criterion produces different ranking.

  8. Long-Run and Short-Run Returns of Initial Public Offerings (IPO) of Public and Private Companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) Market

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Mirbagherijam; Saber Khodaparati; Gholamreza Zamanian

    2013-01-01

    This paper surveys some effective factors on long-term and short-term returns of initial public offerings (IPO) of public and private companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market. We use panel data approach to compare determinant factors of returns of IPO either in public and private firms. The results show that P/E ratio, volume of transactions and size of companies are the main factors of determinant of abnormal long-run returns of IPO in both private and public companies. In the short-r...

  9. Systematic Positive Expected Returns in the UK Fixed Odds Betting Market: An Analysis of the Fink Tank Predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babatunde Buraimo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available We report striking evidence of semi-strong inefficiency in the UK fixed-odds football betting market using a reputable newspaper tipster which offers probabilities of match outcomes rather than simple result indicators. Betting on the Fink Tank probabilities of home wins across 10 bookmakers, when there are positive expected returns, would have generated positive returns in each of the seasons from 2006–07 to 2011–12 for a variety of different betting strategies. These returns could have been enhanced by employing the best odds from a greater number of bookmakers. However, the fact that pure arbitrage bets have existed for years and appear to last for several hours or days suggest they are in practice not exploitable to a magnitude that poses any threat to bookmakers.

  10. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  11. What do Professional Forecasters' Stock Market Expectations Tell Us about Herding, Information Extraction and Beauty Contests?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    We study how professional forecasters form equity market expectations based on a new micro-level dataset which includes rich cross-sectional information about individual characteristics. We focus on testing whether agents rely on the beliefs of others, i.e., consensus expectations, when forming...... their own forecast. We find strong evidence that the average of all forecasters' beliefs influences an individual's own forecast. This effect is stronger for young and less experienced forecasters as well as forecasters whose pay depends more on performance relative to a benchmark. Further tests indicate...... that neither information extraction to incorporate dispersed private information, nor herding for reputational reasons can fully explain these results, leaving Keynes' beauty contest argument as a potential candidate for explaining forecaster behavior....

  12. Abnormal stock market returns to announcements of M&A banking deals in Greece 1996-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios KARAMANOS

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strategic management and human resource management to offer a broader process-oriented integrative model of the empirical evidence and theories suggested to explain acquisitions. The empirical analysis reports insignificant abnormal gains for acquiring banks, significant positive abnormal returns at 7,44% for acquired banks, and 2,91% positive abnormal returns for the combined entity, in the event window [-10;+1]. The findings indicate that, on average, the Greek bank mergers neither create nor destroy shareholder wealth. This result is consistent with the findings of other Greek event studies and the bulk of US and European event studies on M&A wealth effects. On average, acquired firm shareholders gain at the expense of the acquiring firm and market value of the combined entity appears to have little improvement around the announcement of the transaction. The conceptual framework explicitly describes that wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013 may be a result of macroeconomic theory and perfectly competitive market, lack of strategic relatedness and synergy realization, managerial hubris, or unethical behavior of managers derived from expense preference approach of agency theory.

  13. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  14. Expectation Returns and Households' Decision in the Schooling of Their Children in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Shahzad; Lurhathaiopath, Puangkaew; Matsushita, Shusuke

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to study households' expectations for their children's academic performance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Education has a significant role in increasing the productivity and income level of an individual in a society. Household education, income, distance from school, gender discrimination within household and cost of education…

  15. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  16. Changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and their impact on the return of stock indexes from the viewpoint of a european and of an american investor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Rejnuš

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This article tries to analyse the impact of changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate on the return of stock indexes. We deal with investments on the American and on the European stock market made by European investors (investing in EUR and by American investors (investing in USD simultaneously on both these markets in the period of the last ten years. The investments are analysed from the viewpoint of five different investing periods with a common date of termination on 31 December 2003.Using correlation coefficients, we have quantified the dependence between the development of relative weekly changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and of relative weekly changes in the value of both indexes converted to the investor’s home currency in different time periods. We have also quantified the dependence between the development of relative weekly changes in the value of both indexes under study expressed in their original currency and after conversion to the investor’s home currency.The analysis has shown that even in periods of considerable exchange rate fluctuation, the development of stock market rates had a significantly greater impact on the return of stock indexes than the development of the two currencies’ exchange rates.

  17. Vocational rehabilitation program evaluation: comparison group challenges and the role of unmeasured return-to-work expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sears, Jeanne M; Rolle, Lisann R; Schulman, Beryl A; Wickizer, Thomas M

    2014-12-01

    Despite the importance and cost of workers' compensation (WC)-based vocational rehabilitation (VR) programs, outcome evaluations are rare, in part due to the scarcity of suitable comparison groups. The aims of this study were to assess (1) the adequacy of a commonly recommended internal comparison group, i.e., workers who were eligible for but did not receive services, and (2) return-to-work (RTW) expectations as a potential source of bias. In this prospective cohort study, we used WC claims data and worker-reported RTW expectations to compare workers who received vocational retraining services to eligible workers who did not receive such services. Workers were surveyed after retraining eligibility determination, prior to the initiation of retraining activities. VR progress and RTW wage outcomes were followed for 3 years. The magnitude of confounding contributed by RTW expectations and other covariates was quantified. Workers who were somewhat or very certain they would RTW had significantly better outcomes. RTW expectations played a strong confounding role, reducing the retraining plan effect estimate by about 23 %, while education and physical capacity each changed the effect estimate by group approach, commonly recommended for VR program evaluation, is inappropriate for WC-based VR evaluations. Ultimately, there is no simple solution to the challenge of identifying a comparison group; however, measurement of RTW expectations, an easily-measured multi-dimensional construct, may be a useful addition to the VR evaluation toolbox.

  18. Investigating the excess return of contrarian strategy in the active ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obtaining the appropriate rate of return is the most important expectation of investors in the investment process and different statategies have been used by investors to gain a required rate of return. Contrarian strategy is one the strategies used recently to predict the return of stock using the historical information. Contrarian ...

  19. RASIO KEUANGAN PENGUKUR KINERJA PERUSAHAAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPEKTASI RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yarnest Yarnest

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was intended to know and to describe BUMN firm performance listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange.It measured finance ratios and its impact to expectation return good stock partially and simultaneously.This observational object was corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange, period 2005-2009. Thisresearch used design ex post facto. Exhaustive observational corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange(BEI were 13 firms. Because of little population, the method used was census method. Analysis techniquesused were analysis multiple regression, quiz f and quiz t, data processing by programs Aviews version 6.0. Theresult of observation showed that liquidity ratio, leverage ratio, activity ratio, profitability ratio and stock ratiocould measure simultaneous firm and performance impacted significant to expectation return stock. Activityratio consisted of average collection period and inventory turnover and stock ratio consisted of price earning ratioand book value per share partially impacted significant to expectation return stock. Meanwhile ratio was liquidity,leverage ratio. Profitability ratio partially did not impact significantly to expectation return stock. Stock ratiomeasured by book value per share constituting impacted as the dominant factor on exspectation return stock.

  20. Return on securities of the listed banks, using BET and BET-C indices of the Bucharest Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria FIRESCU

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present work has great importance for the economic and financial area due to the fact that targets the relevance of the financial indicators in anticipation of the stock variation. The aim is to measure the correlation, the type and intensity, between the variation of stock market profitability and the profitability of the securities traded by banks in Romania, listed on the BSE. The research is approached transversely (banks in Romania listed on the stock market as well as longitudinally (from the date of listing on the Stock Exchange of each bank until 31.12.2016. Using the econometric model Eviews we tested the correlation between the profitability of BRD, BT, BCC bank`s securities and the profitability of Bucharest Stock Exchange, by BET and BET-C. The results show that the research hypothesis isn’t validated for any of those banks.

  1. Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javed Bin Kamal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

  2. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  3. The Brazilian stock market : extending the three-factor model of Fama and French to capture the variation of Brazilian stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Lunden, Lars Petter

    2007-01-01

    Summary Brazil is a country which has experienced increased attention from the rest of the world in the recent years. The BOVESPA (Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo) is the largest stock exchange in Latin America and the economy is in a better state than ever. The economy has experienced a growth rate of about 4 % and the macroeconomic conditions are generally improving. Almost every multinational company has operations in Brazil. Even Norwegian companies such as Statoil and Hydro are now invo...

  4. Pengaruh Earnings, Operating Cash Flow Dan Asset Growth Terhadap Stock Return Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Pada Indeks Lq 45 Untuk Periode 2009-2011

    OpenAIRE

    Yulius; Tan, Yuliawati

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this research is to test the impact of earnings, operatingcash flow and asset growth to firm's stock return which listed in LQ 45index in Indonesian for 2009-2011. The result of this research is earnings,operating cash flow and asset growth have not significant effect to stockreturn both when those variabels is tested separately or silmutaneously.This result show that earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth arenot only the one to be the basis of consideration for inves...

  5. Psychological factors are important to return to pre-injury sport activity after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction: expect and motivate to satisfy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonesson, Sofi; Kvist, Joanna; Ardern, Clare; Österberg, Annika; Silbernagel, Karin Grävare

    2017-05-01

    To describe individuals' expectations, motivation, and satisfaction before, during, and after rehabilitation for ACL reconstruction and to explore how these factors were associated with return to pre-injury sport activity at 1-year follow-up. Sixty-five individuals (34 males), median age 22 (15-45) years, scheduled for ACL reconstruction participated. Participants completed the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Form (IKDC-SKF) and questions about expectations, satisfaction, and motivation pre-operatively and at 16 and 52 weeks after surgery. Prior to surgery, 86 % of participants stated that their goal was to return to their pre-injury sport activity. Those who had returned to their pre-injury sport activity at 52 weeks were more motivated during rehabilitation to return to their pre-injury activity level, more satisfied with their activity level and knee function at 52 weeks, and scored significantly higher on the IKDC-SKF [median 92.0 (range 66.7-100.0)] at 52 weeks, compared to those who had not returned [median 77.6 (range 50.6-97.7)]. Prior to ACL reconstruction, most participants expected to return to their pre-injury activity level. Higher motivation during rehabilitation was associated with returning to the pre-injury sport activity. The participants who had returned to their pre-injury sport activity were more satisfied with their activity level and knee function 1 year after the ACL reconstruction. Facilitating motivation might be important to support individuals in achieving their participation goals after ACL reconstruction. Prospective cohort study, Level II.

  6. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  7. Extreme Value Theory: An Application to the Peruvian Stock Market Returns || Teoría de valores extremos: una aplicación a los retornos bursátiles peruanos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez, Gabriel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Using daily observations of the index and stock market returns for the Peruvian case from January 3, 1990 to May 31, 2013, this paper models the distribution of daily loss probability, estimates maximum quantiles and tail probabilities of this distribution, and models the extremes through a maximum threshold. This is used to obtain the better measurements of the Value at Risk (VaR and the Expected Short-Fall (ES at 95% and 99%. One of the results on calculating the maximum annual block of the negative stock market returns is the observation that the largest negative stock market return (daily is 12.44% in 2011. The shape parameter is equal to -0.020 and 0.268 for the annual and quarterly block, respectively. Then, in the first case we have that the non-degenerate distribution function is Gumbel-type. In the other case, we have a thick-tailed distribution (Fréchet. Estimated values of the VaR and the ES are higher using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD in comparison with the Normal distribution and the differences at 99.0% are notable. Finally, the non-parametric estimation of the Hill tail-index and the quantile for negative stock market returns shows quite instability. || Usando observaciones diarias del índice y los retornos bursátiles para el caso Peruano desde el 3 de enero de 1990 hasta el 31 de mayo de 2013, este documento modela la distribución de las probabilidades de pérdidas diarias, estima los cuantiles máximos y las colas de la distribución y finalmente, modela los valores extremos usando un umbral máximo. Todo esto es usado para obtener una mejor medida del valor en riesgo (VaR y de la pérdida esperada (ES al 95% y 99% de confianza. Uno de los resultados de calcular el bloque máximo anual de los retornos bursátiles negativos es la observación que el retorno bursátil más negativo (diario es 12.44% en el 2011. El parámetro de forma es igual a -0.020 y 0.268 para los bloques anuales y trimestrales

  8. DOES WTI OIL PRICE RETURNS VOLATILITY SPILLOVER TO THE EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK INDEX IN THE US?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chun Wei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the volatility of the West Texas Intermediate oil spot returns (WTIR is affected by the Texas Light Sweet oil futures returns (FUR, the exchange rate returns between the US dollar and the Euro (ERR, and the S&P 500 energy index returns (EIR, and if any of those have changed over time. The daily data of the WTIR, the FUR, the ERR, and the EIR between the period of January 4, 2000 and September 30, 2009, were utilized. The empirical results of the multivariate GARCH of the BEKK model indicated that the WTIR is significantly affected by its own past volatility, and by the volatility of FUR, ERR, and EIR. Most likely, WTIR employs a structural conversion in our dummy variable for selected time points. This suggests that investors could use the FUR’s past volatility as a basis for WTIR purchase. In addition, the changes in ERR’s and EIR’s past volatility can be partially used as a basis for the same purpose.

  9. An Iterated GMM Procedure for Estimating the Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation Model, with an Application to Danish Stock and Bond Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2010-01-01

    We suggest an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane, and we apply the approach on annual and quarterly Danish stock and bond returns. For comparative purposes we also estimate and test the standard constant relative risk......-aversion (CRRA) model. In addition, we compare the pricing errors of the different models using Hansen and Jagannathan's specification error measure. The main result is that for Denmark the Campbell-Cochrane model does not seem to perform markedly better than the CRRA model. For the long annual sample period...... covering more than 80 years there is absolutely no evidence of superior performance of the Campbell-Cochrane model. For the shorter and more recent quarterly data over a 20-30 year period, there is some evidence of counter-cyclical time-variation in the degree of risk-aversion, in accordance...

  10. An iterated GMM procedure for estimating the Campbell-Cochrane habit formation model, with an application to Danish stock and bond returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig V.

    We suggest an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), and we apply the approach on annual and quarterly Danish stock and bond returns. For comparative purposes we also estimate and test the standard CRRA model....... In addition, we compare the pricing errors of the different models using Hansen and Jagannathan's (1997) specification error measure. The main result is that for Denmark the Campbell-Cochrane model does not seem to perform markedly better than the CRRA model. For the long annual sample period covering more...... than 80 years there is absolutely no evidence of superior performance of the Campbell-Cochrane model. For the shorter and more recent quarterly data over a 20-30 year period, there is some evidence of counter-cyclical time-variation in the degree of risk-aversion, in accordance with the Campbell...

  11. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...

  12. An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda E Young

    Full Text Available Workers' own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work.Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men, who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6, and all had been out of work for 3 months or less.All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months. When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant's subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest.Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work.

  13. Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther; Jensen, Magnus David Sander

    We document that over the period 1953-2011 US bond returns are predictable in expansionary periods but unpredictable during recessions. This result holds in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses and using both univariate regressions and combination forecasting techniques. A simulation study...... but negative in recessions. The results are also consistent with tests showing that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds in recessions but not in expansions. However, the results for bonds are in sharp contrast to results for stocks showing that stock returns are predictable in recessions...... but not in expansions. Thus, our results indicate that there is not a common predictive pattern of stock and bond returns associated with the state of the economy....

  14. Expectation versus Reality: The Impact of Utility on Emotional Outcomes after Returning Individualized Genetic Research Results in Pediatric Rare Disease Research, a Qualitative Interview Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacioppo, Cara N; Chandler, Ariel E; Towne, Meghan C; Beggs, Alan H; Holm, Ingrid A

    2016-01-01

    Much information on parental perspectives on the return of individual research results (IRR) in pediatric genomic research is based on hypothetical rather than actual IRR. Our aim was to understand how the expected utility to parents who received IRR on their child from a genetic research study compared to the actual utility of the IRR received. We conducted individual telephone interviews with parents who received IRR on their child through participation in the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research Gene Discovery Core (GDC) at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH). Five themes emerged around the utility that parents expected and actually received from IRR: predictability, management, family planning, finding answers, and helping science and/or families. Parents expressing negative or mixed emotions after IRR return were those who did not receive the utility they expected from the IRR. Conversely, parents who expressed positive emotions were those who received as much or greater utility than expected. Discrepancies between expected and actual utility of IRR affect the experiences of parents and families enrolled in genetic research studies. An informed consent process that fosters realistic expectations between researchers and participants may help to minimize any negative impact on parents and families.

  15. Expectation versus Reality: The Impact of Utility on Emotional Outcomes after Returning Individualized Genetic Research Results in Pediatric Rare Disease Research, a Qualitative Interview Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cara N Cacioppo

    Full Text Available Much information on parental perspectives on the return of individual research results (IRR in pediatric genomic research is based on hypothetical rather than actual IRR. Our aim was to understand how the expected utility to parents who received IRR on their child from a genetic research study compared to the actual utility of the IRR received.We conducted individual telephone interviews with parents who received IRR on their child through participation in the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research Gene Discovery Core (GDC at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH.Five themes emerged around the utility that parents expected and actually received from IRR: predictability, management, family planning, finding answers, and helping science and/or families. Parents expressing negative or mixed emotions after IRR return were those who did not receive the utility they expected from the IRR. Conversely, parents who expressed positive emotions were those who received as much or greater utility than expected.Discrepancies between expected and actual utility of IRR affect the experiences of parents and families enrolled in genetic research studies. An informed consent process that fosters realistic expectations between researchers and participants may help to minimize any negative impact on parents and families.

  16. The Effect of Global Political Events in the Arab Spring on Stock Returns: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İbrahim BOZKURT

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available International events or news have an effect on countries’ internal and external policies and since this effect is reflected on the markets, the decisions of domestic and foreign investors are revised continually. This study aims to analyze the effect of international good and bad news related to Iraq, Iran and Syria that are located in the Arab spring region and are border to Turkey, on the returns of ISE-100 index The study utilized event study methodology, international news related to Iraq, Iran and Syria between 2010-2013 and the daily closing price data of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and ISE-100 index between 2010-2013 constituted the dataset. At the end of the study, it was found that only the Iran-related news had effect on ISE-100 index.

  17. Investment Strategy Based on Aviation Accidents: Are there abnormal returns?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rosa Costa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates whether an investment strategy based on aviation accidents can generate abnormal returns. We performed an event study considering all the aviation accidents with more than 10 fatalities in the period from 1998 to 2009 and the stock market performance of the respective airlines and aircraft manufacturers in the days after the event. The tests performed were based on the model of Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay (1997 for definition of abnormal returns, by means of linear regression between the firms’ stock returns and the return of a market portfolio used as a benchmark. This enabled projecting the expected future returns of the airlines and aircraft makers, for comparison with the observed returns after each event. The result obtained suggests that an investment strategy based on aviation accidents is feasible because abnormal returns can be obtained in the period immediately following an aviation disaster.

  18. Associations among pain, disability and psychosocial factors and the predictive value of expectations on returning to work in patients who undergo lumbar disc surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Ann-Christin; Öhrvik, John; Söderlund, Anne

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to describe the associations among pain, disability and psychosocial factors preoperatively as well as 3 and 24 months later for patients who undergo first time discectomy and to analyse the predictive value of psychosocial factors on the outcome 24 months after surgery. Fifty-nine patients, 41 % women, with a mean age of 40 years and without comorbidities were included, of whom 56 responded to the 24-month follow-up; at that point, they were divided into patients with complaints (C, n = 36) and patients without complaints (NC, n = 20). Correlations among the pain intensity, disability and psychosocial factors were analysed preoperatively, 3 and 24 months after discectomy, and regression analyses of psychosocial factors on the outcome at 24 months were performed. Psychosocial variables were weakly correlated with the pain intensity and disability preoperatively. High expectations on the return to work were predictive of both pain intensity (β = 8.0, p = 0.03) and disability (β = 9.1, p psychosocial variables and outcome variables were strengthened at the 3-month follow-up in the C group, and this association remained 24 months after surgery. Fear of movement was most strongly correlated with leg pain intensity (r (s) 0.64, p disability (r (s) 0.78, p < 0.001). Having high expectations on the return to work after surgery was the strongest predictor for a favourable outcome. Therefore, low preoperative expectations on return to work convey an important prognostic signal.

  19. Applying Portfolio Selection: A Case of Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Praptiningsih

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has three objectives. First, we investigate whether Modern Portfolio Theory can be applied on the financial decisions that made by investors or individual in order to increase their wealth through investment activities. Second, we examine the real behavior of each asset in terms of capital assets pricing models. Third, we determine whether our portfolio is the best model to produce a higher return in a given level of risk or a lowest risk in a particular level of return. It is found that three different stocks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange have a positive relationship with market returns. The reactions of the investor regarding these stocks are not influenced by each other. Lastly, the minimum variance portfolio (MVP point which represents the single portfolio with the lowest possible level of standard deviation, occurs when the expected return of portfolio is approximately 2.2 percent at a standard deviation of 8.8 percent.

  20. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    This paper provides detailed insights into predictability of the entire stock and bond return distribution through the use of quantile regression. This allows us to examine speci…c parts of the return distribution such as the tails or the center, and for a suf…ciently …ne grid of quantiles we can...... trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions...... are predictable as a function of economic state variables. The results are, however, very different for stocks and bonds. The state variables primarily predict only location shifts in the stock return distribution, while they also predict changes in higher-order moments in the bond return distribution. Out...

  1. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    hypothesis. Finally, we use ex-ante spanned subjective beliefs to evaluate several reduced-form and structural models. We find support for heterogeneous beliefs models and also uncover a number of statistically significant relationships in favour of alternative rational expectations models once the effect......This paper studies the properties of bond risk premia in the cross-section of subjective expectations. We exploit an extensive dataset of yield curve forecasts from financial institutions and document a number of novel findings. First, contrary to evidence presented for stock markets but consistent......-primary dealers. Third, we reject the null hypothesis that subjective expected bond returns are constant. When predicting long term rates, however, primary dealers have no information advantage. This suggests that a key source of variation in long-term bonds are risk premia and not short- term rate variation...

  2. The Relationship Between Work-Disability Duration and Claimant's Expected Time to Return to Work as Recorded by Workers' Compensation Claims Managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Amanda E; Besen, Elyssa; Willetts, Joanna

    2017-06-01

    Purpose This research sought to determine whether there is a relationship between claimants' expected time to return to work (RTW) as recorded by claims managers and compensated days of work disability. Methods We utilized workers' compensation data from a large, United States-based insurance company. RTW expectations were collected within 30 days of the claim being reported and these were compared with the termination of total temporary indemnity payments. Bivariate and hierarchical regression analyses were conducted. Results A significant relationship between expected time to RTW and compensated disability duration was observed. The unadjusted correlation between work-disability duration and expected time to RTW was .25 (p disability duration beyond what was explained by the covariates. Conclusion The current study's findings support the hypothesis that claimant RTW estimates as recorded by claims managers are significantly related to compensated-disability duration, and the relationship is maintained after controlling for variance that can be explained by other variables available within workers' compensation databases.

  3. What leads to the expectation to return to work? Insights from a Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model of future work outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunstan, Debra A; Covic, Tanya; Tyson, Graham A

    2013-01-01

    This study used a Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to identify the factors influencing the future work expectations and outcomes of employees with a musculoskeletal injury. Australians with a compensable work injury (N=174), mean age=43.7 years, 53.2% male, 48.3% back injury , and 34.2% unskilled. A TPB model of the target behavior 'working, or continuing to work … three months from now' was constructed. A questionnaire measuring the model's components was completed at baseline and three-months follow-up. The model met standard psychometric requirements. Attitude, Subjective Norm and Perceived Behavioral Control explained 76% of the variance in Behavioral Intention (R^{2}= 0.76, pR^{2}=0.51, p< 0.001; sensitivity=86.4%, specificity=71.2%). The strength of key influences on expectations varied according to employment status, but included the availability of modified duties, social aspects of work, the opinion of the treating doctor, co-worker support, pain, and functional limitations. The TPG is a useful model and conceptual framework for integrating the biopsychosocial determinantsof return to work (RTW) and identifying the influences on future work expectations and outcomes.

  4. Searching for long memory effects in time series of central Europe stock market indices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luboš Střelec

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This article deals with one of the important parts of applying chaos theory to financial and capital markets – namely searching for long memory effects in time series of financial instruments. Source data are daily closing prices of Central Europe stock market indices – Bratislava stock index (SAX, Budapest stock index (BUX, Prague stock index (PX and Vienna stock index (ATX – in the period from January 1998 to September 2007. For analysed data R/S analysis is used to calculate the Hurst exponent. On the basis of the Hurst exponent is characterized formation and behaviour of analysed financial time series. Computed Hurst exponent is also statistical compared with his expected value signalling independent process. It is also operated with 5-day returns (i.e. weekly returns for the purposes of comparison and identification nonperiodic cycles.

  5. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  6. A Comparison of Generalized Hyperbolic Distribution Models for Equity Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virginie Konlack Socgnia

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We discuss the calibration of the univariate and multivariate generalized hyperbolic distributions, as well as their hyperbolic, variance gamma, normal inverse Gaussian, and skew Student’s t-distribution subclasses for the daily log-returns of seven of the most liquid mining stocks listed on the Johannesburg Stocks Exchange. To estimate the model parameters from historic distributions, we use an expectation maximization based algorithm for the univariate case and a multicycle expectation conditional maximization estimation algorithm for the multivariate case. We assess the goodness of fit statistics using the log-likelihood, the Akaike information criterion, and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. Finally, we inspect the temporal stability of parameters and note implications as criteria for distinguishing between models. To better understand the dependence structure of the stocks, we fit the MGHD and subclasses to both the stock returns and the two leading principal components derived from the price data. While the MGHD could fit both data subsets, we observed that the multivariate normality of the stock return residuals, computed by removing shared components, suggests that the departure from normality can be explained by the structure in the common factors.

  7. Stock Price Reaction to Announcements of Right Issues and Debenture Issues: Evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udani Chathurika Edirisinghe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the stock market reaction for right issues and debenture issues of Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE during the period of 2005 to 2011 while providing evidence for the research question “how do stock prices react to the debt and equity issue announcements of listed companies in CSE?” In investigating the ex-ante and ex-post market reactions the study employees event study methodology, while predicting abnormal returns, based on three alternative normal/expected returns modeling methods, namely Mean Adjusted Model, Market Adjusted Model, and Capital Asset Pricing Model. When testing the alternative hypothesis, whether stock prices significantly reacts to the announcement of right & debenture issues, results of all models show positive market reaction during the 30 days prior to the announcement and react negatively from 2 days after the announcements for right issues, but for debenture issues market reacted negatively during the period prior to debenture issues and continue to do the same during the post event period. Although the magnitude and significance of abnormal return generated through three alternatives methods differ, the pattern of the CAAR of all models are similar. Thus, as far as the speed of the price adjustment is concerned it seems that the CSE is not efficient.

  8. Oil risk in oil stocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Wang, L

    2008-01-01

    We assess the oil price sensitivities and oil risk premiums of NYSE listed oil & gas firms' returns by using a two-step regression analysis under two different arbitrage pricing models. Thus, we apply the Fama and French (1992) factor returns in a study of oil stocks. In all, we find that the return

  9. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Chok

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  10. Return of Equity Issues in the Spanish Stock Market from the Investor’s Perspective, during the 1997-2012 Period

    OpenAIRE

    Parreño Santa-Olalla, Javier; Ruiz López, Felipe; Roux Martinez, Felix Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Is it profitable for an investor, from a risk-return perspective, to acquire a stake in a quoted company when a capital increase is announced? This paper analyses the return obtained from the investment in equity issues with cash contribution and pre-emptive rights, aimed at funding corporate activities: acquisitions, investments in new facilities and/or strengthening the balance sheet of the companies undertaking the equity issue. During the 16 years covered by the study, the results sho...

  11. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme...... that classifies extreme returns for several markets jointly. The new classification scheme holds about the same information as the old one, while demanding a shorter sample period. The new classification scheme is useful....

  12. Testing for regime-switching CAPM on Zagreb Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The standard Capital Asset Pricing Model assumes that a linear relationship exists between the risk (beta and the expected excess return of a stock. However, empirical findings have shown over the years that this relationship varies over time. Stock markets undergo phases of greater and smaller volatility in which beta varies accordingly (undergoes different regimes. Given that the Croatian capital market is still insufficiently investigated, the aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of a non-linear relationship between the stock risk and return. Linear and Markov-switching models (Hamilton 1989 are examined on the Zagreb Stock Exchange based on monthly data on 21 stocks, ranging from January 2005 to December 2013. In that way, investors can use the results based on the best model when making decisions about buying stocks. Since this is one of the first papers on regime-switching on the Croatian capital market, it will hopefully contribute to the existing literature on investing.

  13. PENGARUH LABA AKUNTANSI DAN ARUS KAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH YANG TERDAFTAR DI JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX TAHUN 2007-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvina Widowati

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital market is a financial institution, where investors can invest their funds in securities. Establishment of the Jakarta Islamic Index is expected to improve investor confidence to develop the investment in the securities of the sharia. The one of investing purpose is to get a return as an advantage. The information of earnings and cash flow may cause investors action toward the company's stock. This study aims to determine the effect of accounting earnings and cash flow toward stock return. The data which used are secondary data such as company’s financial reports and stock prices. The population in this study are stocks listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index 2007-2008. The sample which used in this study are 32 companies. Technique of sampling that is used in this study is purposive sampling method. The data analysis that used is multiple regression analysis. The Regression analysis is used to test the effect of accounting earnings variable and cash flows variable toward stock returns. The analysis results shown that both independent variables have simultaneously influence to the dependent variable, and individually only accounting earnings influence significantly to the stock returns. Meanwhile, the total cash flow does not influence the stock return variable.Based on the results, the suggestion for further research is able to extend the period of observation, using other variables are not described in this study.

  14. Polish stock market and some foreign markets – dependence analysis by copulas

    OpenAIRE

    Henryk Gurgul; Roland Mestel; Robert Syrek

    2008-01-01

    By applying copulas the examination was carried out to find out whether trading volume, stock return and return volatility are pairwise dependent. In the investigations it was shown that there exists a close relationship between these variables on the domestic market and between Polish stock returns and the returns of foreign stock market indexes. A similar significant relationship concerns also trading volumes. In addition, stock returns (returns volatility) of the Austrian and especially of...

  15. Disagreement and the Stock Market

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hong, Harrison; Stein, Jeremy C

    2007-01-01

    ...); we also see longer-run fundamental reversion—the tendency for "glamour" stocks with high ratios of market value to earnings, cashflows, or book value to deliver weak returns over the subsequent several years...

  16. A new look at red pine financial returns in the Lake States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Lothner; Dennis P. Bradley

    1984-01-01

    Describes the financial performance of red pine on site index 60, 70, and 80 lands by using new yield evidence and up-to-date cost and revenue assumptions. Best combinations of initial stocking, residual basal area after thinning, an rotation age are identified for two different financial criteria: soil expectation value and internal rate of return.

  17. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  18. Returns on Investments and Volatility Rate in the Nigerian Banking Industry

    OpenAIRE

    LAWAL A. I.; OLOYE M. I.; OTEKUNRIN A. O.; Ajayi, S.A.

    2013-01-01

    Most investment decisions focus on a forecast of future events that is either explicit or implicit. Generally asset pricing models postulate a positive relationship between a stock portfolio’s expected returns and risk, which is often modelled by the variance of the asset price. The essence of this paper is to use GARCH in mean and EGARCH to examine the relationship between mean returns on the Nigeria commercial banks portfolio investments and its conditional variance or standard deviation. A...

  19. The impact of investor sentiment on the German stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Finter, Philipp; Niessen-Ruenzi, Alexandra; Ruenzi, Stefan

    2011-01-01

    This paper develops a broad-based sentiment indicator for Germany and investigates whether investor sentiment can explain stock returns on the German stock market. Based on a principal component analysis, we construct a sentiment indicator that condenses information of several well-known sentiment proxies. We show that this indicator explains the return spread between sentiment sensitive stocks and stocks that are not sensitive to sentiment fluctuations. Specifically, stocks that are difficul...

  20. Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben

    2002-01-01

    It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

  1. ANALISIS PENGARUH ROA, EPS, FINANCIAL LEVERAGE, PROCEED TERHADAP INITIAL RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andhi Wijayanto

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Riset ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh ROA, EPS, Financial Leverage dan Proceed terhadap initial return. Initial return diperoleh dengan mengukur perbedaan harga pada hari pertama perdangangan di pasar sekunder dengan harga saat IPO. Penelitian ini menduga bahwa ROA, EPS, Proceed mempunyai pengaruh negatif dengan initial return, disisi lain, Financial Leverage diduga mempunyai pengaruh yang positif terhadap initial return. Data pada penelitian ini terdapat dalam prospectus perusahaan. Sampel diambil dengan menggunakan metode purposive sampling dengan dua kriteria yaitu terdiri dari perusahaan yang IPO selama periode tahun 2000-2006 dan underpriced. Dengan kriteria tersebut, 67 perusahaan dijadikan sebagai sampel. Metode analisis menggunakan regresi berganda. Hasil penelitian ini adalah Earning Per-Share (EPS, dan Proceed mempunyai pengaruh negatif dan signifikan terhadap initial return, sedangkan Return on Assets Ratio (ROA, dan Financial Leverage tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap initial return. This research aimed to examine the influence of ROA, EPS, Financial Leverage, and Proceed on initial return. Initial return was measured by the difference between the firm’s stock price on the first day in the secondary market and it’s IPO. This research expected that return on assets ratio (ROA, earning per-share (EPS, and proceed negatively associated with initial return. On other hand, financial leverage ratio expected to positively associate with initial return. Data in this study were obtained from company prospectus, ICMD. Sample had been taken by using purposive sampling method with two criterions such as conducted IPO during period 2000-2006 and underpriced. With criterions, 67 companies obtains as sample. The analytical methods used multiple regressions, the empirical result of this research indicate that EPS, and proceed significantly associated with initial returns. Whereas ROA, and financial leverage ratio not

  2. More than a century of Grain for Green Program is expected to restore soil carbon stock on alpine grassland revealed by field {sup 13}C pulse labeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Qi; Chen, Dongdong; Zhao, Liang [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Yang, Xue [Department of Education of Qinghai Province, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Xu, Shixiao [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Zhao, Xinquan, E-mail: xqzhao@nwipb.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 10041, Sichuan (China)

    2016-04-15

    Anthropogenic changes in land use/cover have altered the vegetation, soil, and carbon (C) cycling on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) over the last ~ 50 years. As a result, the Grain for Green Program (GfGP) has been widely implemented over the last 10 years to mitigate the impacts of cultivation. To quantify the effects of the GfGP on C partitioning and turnover rates at the ecosystem scale, an in situ {sup 13}C pulse labeling experiment was conducted on natural and GfGP grasslands in an agro-pastoral ecotone in the Lake Qinghai region on the QTP. We found that there were significant differences in the C stocks of all the considered pools in both the natural and GfGP grasslands, with higher CO{sub 2} uptake rates in the GfGP grassland than that in the natural grassland. Partitioning of photoassimilate (% of recovered {sup 13}C) in C pools of both grasslands was similar 25 days after labeling, except in the roots of the 0–15 and 5–15 cm soil layer. Soil organic C (SOC) sequestration rate in the GfGP grassland was 11.59 ± 1.89 g C m{sup −2} yr{sup −1} significantly greater than that in the natural grassland. The results confirmed that the GfGP is an efficient approach for grassland restoration and C sequestration. However, it will take more than a century (119.19 ± 20.26 yr) to restore the SOC stock from the current cropland baseline level to the approximate level of natural grassland. We suggest that additional measures are needed in the selection of suitable plant species for vegetation restoration, and in reasonable grazing management. - Highlights: • Grain for Green Project initiated in 1999 converts cropland to grassland/shrubland. • Impact of Grain for Green on carbon cycling on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is unknown. • Effects on carbon partitioning and turnover were accessed by {sup 13}CO{sub 2} pulse labeling. • Different mass of {sup 13}C in excess, similar {sup 13}C partitioning are shown in grasslands. • Soil organic carbon of

  3. Stock Status

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data inform the public of the most recent stock status for all stocks (FSSI and non-FSSI) in the fishery management unit contained in a fishery managment plan....

  4. Macroeconomic determinants of conditional stock-bond correlation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper analyzes effects of macroeconomic variables on cross- asset market linkages based on the stock-bond returns correlation. The study focuses on the dependence of stock-bond returns correlation on inflation and interest rate, and attempts to explain conditional stock-bond correlation using the argument that these ...

  5. Evolutionary model of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaldasch, Joachim

    2014-12-01

    The paper presents an evolutionary economic model for the price evolution of stocks. Treating a stock market as a self-organized system governed by a fast purchase process and slow variations of demand and supply the model suggests that the short term price distribution has the form a logistic (Laplace) distribution. The long term return can be described by Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions. The long term mean price evolution is governed by a Walrus equation, which can be transformed into a replicator equation. This allows quantifying the evolutionary price competition between stocks. The theory suggests that stock prices scaled by the price over all stocks can be used to investigate long-term trends in a Fisher-Pry plot. The price competition that follows from the model is illustrated by examining the empirical long-term price trends of two stocks.

  6. The log-linear return approximation, bubbles, and predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividendprice ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional...... expectation, and we investigate the magnitude of the approximation error in those cases. We find that surprisingly the Campbell-Shiller approximation is very accurate even in the presence of large explosive bubbles. Only in very large samples do we find evidence that bubbles generate large approximation...... errors. Finally,we show that a bubble model in which expected returns are constant can explain the predictability of stock returns from the dividend-price ratio that many previous studies have documented....

  7. The Log-Linear Return Approximation, Bubbles, and Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    We study in detail the log-linear return approximation introduced by Campbell and Shiller (1988a). First, we derive an upper bound for the mean approximation error, given stationarity of the log dividend-price ratio. Next, we simulate various rational bubbles which have explosive conditional...... expectation, and we investigate the magnitude of the approximation error in those cases. We …nd that surprisingly the Campbell-Shiller approximation is very accurate even in the presence of large explosive bubbles. Only in very large samples do we …nd evidence that bubbles generate large approximation errors....... Finally, we show that a bubble model in which expected returns are constant can explain the predictability of stock returns from the dividend-price ratio that many previous studies have documented....

  8. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL METHOD USED IN MEASURING AND ANALYZING COMPANIES LISTED IN PEFINDO25 AT INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE PERIOD 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis M HUTABARAT

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The industry in Indonesia is an interesting business to capitalize. In Indonesia many companies were established since it is profitable. The capital market serves as an economic pillar in most countries. Indonesia is a rich country, rich in many ways especially in natural resources. However, the industry has its ups and downs in the stock market. It is interesting to see the performance of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange.  This study aimed to measure and analyze companies listed in Pefindo25 at Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample used is 25 companies listed at Pefindo25 index. Based on the results of the study, it can conclude that after analyzing the companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model that based on Beta analysis, the companies have the type of stocks that are aggressive and defensive. With positive and negative return. The company with aggressive beta shows that the company tend to face higher risk, as JPFA find itself with positif return 15.47% expected return. And companies with defensive type of stocks tend to have positive return such as: FISH, STTP, AISA, APLN, and others since they are not sensitive to market changes. It is recommended for further research to look on this CAPM method in analyzing the stock investment.

  9. A detrended cross correlation analysis for stock markets of the United States, Japan, and the Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2017-10-01

    This paper investigates the long range cross covariances among the stock price returns for the United States, Japan, and the Europe. Empirical results suggest that the stock price returns of these regions have cross covariances of slow moving fluctuations.

  10. PENGARUH RETURN SAHAM, VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM DAN VARIAN RETURN SAHAM TERHADAP BID ASK SPREAD SAHAM PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERGABUNG DALAM INDEKS LQ 45 PERIODE TAHUN 2003-2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sri Dwi Ari Ambarwati

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to test the impact of stock return, stock trading volume and variance of stock return toward bid-ask spread. Using sampling of 20 manufacture companies which are united in LQ 45 index during the period of 2003 until 2005. The compilation of data is done in Jakarta Stock Exchange corner UII, and Indonesian Capital Market Directory (ICMD. The analysis is done with multiple linear regression method, regretted classical assumption examined, f- test and t –test. The result shows that the hypothesis of stock return are rejected, in this result shows that stock return have a positive significant impact toward bid-ask spread while the hypothesis of stock trading volume and variance of stock return are accepted, in this result shows that stock trading volume has a negative significant impact toward bid-ask spread and variance of stock return has a positive significant impact toward bid-ask spread. While as it simultaneously show that stock return, stock trading volume, and variance of stock return have significantly impact toward bid-ask spread and variance of stock return have dominant impact.Key words: Bid-ask spread, multiple linear regression method, stock trading volume, stock return, variance of stock return.

  11. Corporate sustainability and asset pricing models: empirical evidence for the Brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

  12. The synchronicity between the stock and the stock index via information in market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.

  13. Asymmetric joint multifractal analysis in Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yuwen; Zheng, Tingting

    2017-04-01

    In this paper, the asymmetric joint multifractal analysis method based on statistical physics is proposed to explore the asymmetric correlation between daily returns and trading volumes in Chinese stock markets. The result shows asymmetric multifractal correlations exist between return and trading volume in Chinese stock markets. Moreover, when the stock indexes are upward, the fluctuations of returns are always weaker than when they are downward, whether the trading volumes are more or less.

  14. The return of risk : on the interrelations between risk, return and human decisions*

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Buijs, Arie

    2003-01-01

    For many years, optimism and euphoria reigned on the European and US stock markets. The major market indices consistently showed a substantial rate of return. Many new investors were attracted to the stock markets, initially earning wonderful returns on their portfolios. In the late nineties and

  15. Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silverman, Jerry Stuart

    1974-01-01

    Using play money, students buy and sell six types of stock certificates at prices determined periodically by tossing three dice; all students participate as investors, brokers, or banker. In addition to gaining practice on computational skills in a motivational game, students study the real stock market concurrently. (SD)

  16. Information quality and stock returns revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brevik, F.; d' Addona, S.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the relation between information on the state of the economy and equity risk premium. We use a setup where investors have Epstein-Zin preferences and the economy randomly switches between booms and recessions. We are able to establish 2 key results: First, investors with high

  17. Essays on Stock Issuance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohl, Niklas

    Firms which issue new equity subsequently have lower returns than other firms, but does the strength of the issuance effect vary in the cross section of firms? The essay shows, that US firms with characteristics that makes them “hard to value” have returns which are strongly related to their past...... issuance activity, while the return of “easy to value” firms are less related to their past issuance activity. In most cases the difference between “hard to value” and “easy to value” firms are signiffcant. As proxies for “hard to value”, I use three different types of firm characteristics. First, I...... consider firms for which relatively little information is available as “hard to value”. Examples are firms covered by few analysts and small firms. Second, I consider firms with high levels of analyst disagreement on stock price target, next quarter earnings per share and share recommendation as “hard...

  18. Mandatory IFRS Reporting and Stock Price Informativeness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beuselinck, C.A.C.; Joos, P.P.M.; Khurana, I.K.; van der Meulen, S.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we examine whether mandatory adoption of IFRS influences the flow of firm-specific information and contributes to stock price informativeness as measured by stock return synchronicity. Using a constant sample of 1,904 mandatory IFRS adopters in 14 EU countries for the period

  19. Salmon stocks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Walters, C; Korman, J

    1999-01-01

    The PFRCC, in this first report, intends to provide a broad species-by-species overview of stock status and trends for BC as a whole, as well as an overview of the relevant fisheries management issues...

  20. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  1. Analisa Korelasi Return Indeks – Indeks Saham terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyono Mulyono

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Stock market generally has the stock price index that measures the performance of stock trading, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has a stock price index that is widely known as Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG. During its development, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has many alternative indexes that measure the performance of stock trading. Research that is to be conducted on the correlation between return of the stock index listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange and return of Jakarta Composite Index. Return stock index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely, LQ45 Index, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII, KOMPAS100 Index, BISNIS-27 Index, PEFINDO25 Index and SRI-KEHATI Index, has a close relationship with the return Jakarta Composite,Index which is a reflection of the movement of all existing stock in the market. Return of stocks index that have the highest coefficient correlation is KOMPAS100 In dex, which have return index coefficient correlation is 0.949, thus KOMPAS100 Index that consisting of 100 stocks, based on the results of the study can be used as an alternative investment to get a return that is at least equal or close to the yield given by Jakarta Composite Index(IHSG that consists of 445 stocks

  2. An investigation on the relationship between arbitrage and macro-economic indicators: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Fazli

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of macro-economic factors on the performance of stocks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The proposed study considers the effects of money supply, inflation rate, oil price, unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates as well as unanticipated changes in industrial production on stock price. Using seasonal information of stock price over the period 1997-2007 as well as regression analysis, the study has determined that risk premium of unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates, money supply, inflation rate and unanticipated changes in industrial production are meaningful when the level of significance is five percent. In other words, Arbitrage pricing theory model describing the expected return per share is reasonable and macro-level variables explain systematic risk on TSE.

  3. DEA investment strategy in the Brazilian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Newton Da Costa, Jr; Marcus Lima; Edgar Lanzer; Ana Lopes

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period investment strategy using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the Brazilian stock market. Results show that the returns based on the DEA strategy were superior to the returns of a Brazilian stock index in most of the 22 quarters analyzed, presenting a significant Jensen's alpha.

  4. Does oil price uncertainty transmit to the Thai stock market?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Komain Jiranyakul

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impact of oil price uncertainty on the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Monthly data from May 1987 to December 2013 are applied to the two-stage procedure. In the first step, a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH model is estimated to obtain the volatility series of stock market index and oil price. In the second step, the pairwise Granger causality tests are performed to determine the direction of volatility transmission between oil to stock markets. It is found that movement in real oil price does not adversely affect real stock market return, but stock price volatility does affect real stock return. In the sense of causality, there exists a positive one-directional volatility transmission running from oil to stock market. Oil price change and its uncertainty also adversely affect two main sub-index returns. These important findings give some implications for risk management and policy measures.

  5. A spring-block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Néda, Zoltán

    2015-06-01

    A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring-block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets. An artificial index is defined for the spring-block chain, and its dynamics is compared with the one measured for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For certain parameter regions the model reproduces qualitatively well the dynamics of the logarithmic index, the logarithmic returns, the distribution of the logarithmic returns, the avalanche-size distribution and the distribution of the investment horizons. A noticeable success of the model is that it is able to account for the gain-loss asymmetry observed in the inverse statistics. Our approach has mainly a pedagogical value, bridging between a complex socio-economic phenomena and a basic (mechanical) model in physics.

  6. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    -test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...... frequently traded stocks in the S&P 500 stock index completes the paper....

  7. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  8. Responsabilidade social e retornos das ações: uma análise de empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA = Social responsibility and stock returns: an analysis of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Lopes de Oliveira Martins

    2015-08-01

    crucial element for success in the market. Corporate Social Responsibility refers to the adoption of socially responsible practices by the authorities, aimed at providing social and economic development of the environments in which they operate. At the same time, these actions meet the organizational interests that may lead to improved corporate image, market share gains, increase in profitability and increase the possibilities of continuity. In order to verify a possible relationship between corporate social responsibility practices and the economic results reported by the companies, this research sought to identify whether disclosure of the composition of the portfolio of the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE of BM&FBOVESPA impacts on variations in stock returns of the companies that are in the index. In this sense, the share of assets in the portfolio was considered as a proxy for sustainability initiatives, and the event study method was used to analyze the effect of the inclusion or exclusion of firms in the portfolio. ISE portfolios were analyzed for the years 2011 to 2013 and the results showed positive abnormal returns of the companies included after the release of the index and negative abnormal returns of the firms that were excluded from the index. It was found also that the market behavior returns to normality after the absortion of avaliable information, which supports the semi-strong efficiency hypothesis of the Brazilian capital market.

  9. Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Ai Jun

    2013-01-01

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

  10. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  11. Analysis of Realized Volatility for Nikkei Stock Average on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya; Watanabe, Toshiaki

    2016-04-01

    We calculate realized volatility of the Nikkei Stock Average (Nikkei225) Index on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and investigate the return dynamics. To avoid the bias on the realized volatility from the non-trading hours issue we calculate realized volatility separately in the two trading sessions, i.e. morning and afternoon, of the Tokyo Stock Exchange and find that the microstructure noise decreases the realized volatility at small sampling frequency. Using realized volatility as a proxy of the integrated volatility we standardize returns in the morning and afternoon sessions and investigate the normality of the standardized returns by calculating variance, kurtosis and 6th moment. We find that variance, kurtosis and 6th moment are consistent with those of the standard normal distribution, which indicates that the return dynamics of the Nikkei Stock Average are well described by a Gaussian random process with time-varying volatility.

  12. Stock Performance of Socially Responsible Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Tzu-Man

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Every year Corporate Responsibility Magazine selects and ranks 100 companies on the basis of their corporate social responsibility. This study investigates the stock performance of socially responsible companies in the U.S. The monthly stock returns for these companies are analyzed and compared with the market performance, with the S&P 500 index designated as a proxy for the market. The empirical evidence suggests that these 100 companies outperform the market in their monthly stock returns. We also narrow down the number of companies selected to the top 75, 50, 25, and 10 firms. As we narrow down the companies selected, the difference between their returns and the market returns also narrows. In other words, a portfolio that includes all top 100 companies provides the best stock performance. We extend the analysis to long-term annual stock performance. We find that these socially responsible companies′ annual returns are higher than the market returns for up to seven years after they are listed. We also conduct the same analysis on the top 75, 50, 25, and 10 firms, respectively. Similarly, the larger the number of these top 100 companies, the greater the tendency to generate higher annual returns. We suspect that because the difference between the socially responsible companies′ average returns and the market returns is not dramatic, with a bigger population and thus a larger sample size, the difference becomes more significant. However, in practice, transaction costs must be considered. This study is limited in that it does not consider transaction costs. Nevertheless, we hope to shed some light on the issue of socially responsible companies′ stock performance to encourage companies to start thinking about the importance of corporate social responsibility.

  13. Analisis Karakteristik Perusahaan Dan Ekonomi Makro Pada Return Saham Syariah Dan Non Syariah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardi Hamzah

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this paper are to determine, to examine, and to test whether firm characteristic and macro economics are the important discriminators for return of syariah and non syariah stock; to determine whether there are any differences in return of some syariah and non syariah stock; to determine and to test whether there is a relationship between return and firm characteristic and macro economis in some syariah and non syariah stock. The total sample is 300 stock that were taken each from 150 for syariah stock and 150 for non syariah stock for period 2005 – 2009. The study also showed that there is a difference in return between syariah and non syariah stock. Finally,with regression analysis indicated that partially price book value, price earnings ratio, and kurs rupiah on dollar significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while for return of non syariah stock only kurs rupiah on dollar that significantly effect on return of non syariah stock. For testing with simultant regression indicate firm characteristic and macro economics significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while at return of non syariah stock not significantly effect.

  14. Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shapira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

  15. Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.

  16. The Return to Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...... of return on public capital....

  17. HUBUNGAN RETURN SAHAM DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nyoman Triaryati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of inflation to the stock return research had been held since three decades ago based on GeneralizeFisher’s Hypotheses, but ‘how inflation influenced stock return’ had become a debate until today. In Indonesiamost of the related research used inflation as one of the variables that influenced stock return despite of others inshort period of time. This research investigated the effect of inflation to the stock return in Indonesia within fifteenyears, which was divided into 3 (three periods of time reflecting different economic growth for each of it. Thepurpose of this allotment was to see the consistency how inflation influenced the stock market. Using a secondarydata from monthly inflation and IHSG period 1998 until 2012, included three hundred and sixty observation,simple regression model analyses was applied. This research acknowledged that inflation negatively influencedstock return in a long time period, but it did not exist in the short time period, except when the level of inflationreached 10%. In conclusion, inflation influence on the stock return was not ascertained by how long the investigationwas held but if there was any inflation rate reaching 10% within the period of investigation.

  18. Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2007-08-01

    Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

  19. Public option and private profits: what do markets expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milani, Fabio

    2010-01-01

    The debate on US healthcare reform has largely focused on the introduction of a public health plan option. While supporters stress various beneficial effects that would arise from increased competition in the health insurance market, opponents often contend that a public plan would drive insurers out of the market and potentially lead to the 'collapse' of the private health insurance industry. To contribute to the US healthcare reform debate by inferring, from financial market data, the effect that the public option is likely to have on the private health insurance market. The study utilized daily data on the price of a security that was traded in a prediction market from June 2009 and whose pay-off was tied to the event that a federal government-run healthcare plan - the 'public option' - would be approved by 31 December 2009 (100 daily observations). These data were combined with data on stock returns of health insurance companies (1500 observations from 100 trading days and 15 companies) to evaluate the expected effect of the public option on private health insurers. The impact on hospital companies (1000 observations) was also estimated. The results suggested that daily stock returns of health insurance companies significantly responded to the changing probability regarding the public option. A 10% increase in the probability that the public option would pass, on average, reduced the stock returns of health insurance companies by 1.28% (p public option on the value of health insurance companies. The magnitude of the effect suggests a downward adjustment in the expected profits of health insurers of around 13%, but it does not support more calamitous scenarios.

  20. Lake Roosevelt Fisheries Evaluation Program : Meadow Creek vs. Lake Whatcom Stock Kokanee Salmon Investigations in Lake Roosevelt Annual Report 2000-2001.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McLellan, Holly J.; Scholz, Allan T.

    2001-07-01

    Lake Roosevelt has been stocked with Whatcom stock kokanee since 1989 to mitigate for anadromous salmon losses caused by the construction of Grand Coulee Dam. The primary objective of the hatchery plantings was to create a self-sustaining recreational fishery. Due to low return numbers, it was hypothesized a native stock of kokanee might perform better than the coastal Whatcom strain. Therefore, kokanee from Meadow Creek, a tributary of Kootenay Lake, British Columbia were selected as an alternative stock. Matched pair releases of Whatcom stock and Meadow Creek kokanee were made from Sherman Creek in late June 2000. Stock performance between Lake Whatcom and Meadow Creek kokanee was evaluated through three performance measures (1) returns to Sherman Creek, the primary egg collection facility, (2) returns to other tributaries, indicating availability for angler harvest, and (3) returns to the creel. A secondary objective was to evaluate the numbers collected at downstream fish passage facilities. Age 2 kokanee were collected during five passes through the reservoir, which included 89 tributaries between August 17th and November 7th, 2000. Sherman Creek was sampled once a week because it was the primary egg collection location. A total of 2,789 age 2 kokanee were collected, in which 2,658 (95%) were collected at Sherman Creek. Chi-square analysis indicated the Meadow Creek kokanee returned to Sherman Creek in significantly higher numbers compared to the Whatcom stock ({chi}{sup 2} = 734.4; P < 0.01). Reservoir wide recoveries indicated similar results ({chi}{sup 2} = 733.1; P < 0.01). No age 2 kokanee were collected during creel surveys. Age 3 kokanee are expected to recruit to the creel in 2001. No age 2 kokanee were collected at the fish passage facilities due to a 170 mm size restriction at the fish passage centers. Age 3 kokanee are expected to be collected at the fish passage centers during 2001. Stock performance cannot be properly evaluated until 2001, when

  1. Value and growth stocks in Brazil: risks and returns for one - and two-dimensional portfolios under different economic conditions Ações de valor e de crescimento no Brasil: riscos e retornos de carteiras uni e bidimensionais em diferentes estados da economia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro da Rocha Santos

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available For empirical purposes, value stocks are usually defined as those traded at low price-to-earnings ratios (stock prices divided by earnings per share, low price-to-book ratios (stock prices divided by book value per share or high dividend yields (dividends per share divided by stock prices. Growth stocks, on the other hand, are traded at high price-to-earnings ratios, high price-to-book ratios or low dividend yields. Academic research so far produced, international and Brazilian alike, shows that value stocks outperform growth stocks, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that the market prices of traded stocks are the best estimate of their intrinsic values. Most studies use a single ratio to sort stocks on percentiles; risks (generally defined as beta or standard deviations and returns are then calculated for the resulting value and growth portfolios. In the present paper, we aim to further contribute to the growing literature on the field by applying a method not previously tested on the Brazilian market. We build portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios alone and by a combination of both in order to assess value and growth stocks' risks and returns on the Brazilian stock market between 1989 and 2009. Furthermore, our risk analysis may be regarded as the paper's main contribution, since its approach departs from conventional risk concepts, as we not only test for beta: portfolios' returns are measured under different economic conditions. Results support a pervasive value premium in the Brazilian stock market. Risk analysis shows that this premium holds under every economic condition analyzed, suggesting that value stocks are indeed less risky. Beta proved not to be a satisfactory risk measure. Portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings ratio yielded the best results.Para fins de pesquisas empíricas, ações de valor são geralmente definidas como aquelas negociadas a baixos índices pre

  2. CSR and Company's Stock Price. A Comparative Evidence from Bucharest Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Dornean

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at analysing the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR and stock price for the companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE in 2015, comparing with the results obtained for 2014. This study investigates the differences in the market stock price (and other market variables, such as dividends and stock return of companies that show CSR compared with those that do not. For this purpose we will use three statistical techniques: discriminant analysis, probit analysis model and logistic regression. There is no significant difference between the prediction ability of the models, in the context in which probit model and logistic regression have and average correct classification of 70.29%, while discriminant analysis records 71.62%. Our analysis highlighted that stock return has a significant impact on CSR activities of a company. Moreover, all discriminants have a positive impact on CSR.

  3. Multifractal in Volatility of Family Business Stocks Listed on Casablanca STOCK Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, we check for existence of multifractal in volatility of Moroccan family business stock returns and in volatility of Casablanca market index returns based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) technique. Empirical results show strong evidence of multifractal characteristics in volatility series of both family business stocks and market index. In addition, it is found that small variations in volatility of family business stocks are persistent, whilst small variations in volatility of market index are anti-persistent. However, large variations in family business volatility and market index volatility are both anti-persistent. Furthermore, multifractal spectral analysis based results show strong evidence that volatility in Moroccan family business companies exhibits more multifractality than volatility in the main stock market. These results may provide insightful information for risk managers concerned with family business stocks.

  4. Socio-economy and stock market volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md Sharif Hossain

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate how stock market return volatility behaves with respect to socioeconomic factors namely- interest rate volatility, foreign exchange rate volatility, S &P 500 index volatility, broad money supply volatility, per capita GDP, domestic investment, industry value addition, tertiary level of education, urbanization, and strike and blockades using time series data from 1976-2015. We find that interest rate volatility has significant positive impact on stock market return volatility where broad money supply volatility, foreign exchange rate volatility, tertiary level of education, and domestic investment have significant negative impact on stock market volatility based on stepwise regression. Therefore, increase in tertiary level of education and domestic investment makes the stock market more stable. From the estimated result of VAR model, results show no short run causality among these variables.

  5. Clustering stocks using partial correlation coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sean S.; Chang, Woojin

    2016-11-01

    A partial correlation analysis is performed on the Korean stock market (KOSPI). The difference between Pearson correlation and the partial correlation is analyzed and it is found that when conditioned on the market return, Pearson correlation coefficients are generally greater than those of the partial correlation, which implies that the market return tends to drive up the correlation between stock returns. A clustering analysis is then performed to study the market structure given by the partial correlation analysis and the members of the clusters are compared with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The initial hypothesis is that the firms in the same GICS sector are clustered together since they are in a similar business and environment. However, the result is inconsistent with the hypothesis and most clusters are a mix of multiple sectors suggesting that the traditional approach of using sectors to determine the proximity between stocks may not be sufficient enough to diversify a portfolio.

  6. Stock Market Autoregressive Dynamics: A Multinational Comparative Study with Quantile Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the nonlinear autoregressive dynamics of stock index returns in seven major advanced economies (G7 and China. The quantile autoregression model (QAR enables us to investigate the autocorrelation across the whole spectrum of return distribution, which provides more insightful conditional information on multinational stock market dynamics than conventional time series models. The relation between index return and contemporaneous trading volume is also investigated. While prior studies have mixed results on stock market autocorrelations, we find that the dynamics is usually state dependent. The results for G7 stock markets exhibit conspicuous similarities, but they are in manifest contrast to the findings on Chinese stock markets.

  7. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ono, Shigeki

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

  8. THE INFLUENCE OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ON SHARE RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Nurul Huda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to examine the effect of financial performances of Economic Value Added (EVA, Market Value Added (MVA as well as financial ratios (Fixed Asset Turnover, Return on Investment, Debt to Equity Ratio, Price to Book Value, Total Asset Turnover on Stock Return. This study used the data of six representative palm oil companies which were listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis models that were used included three multiple regression equations for EVA, MVA and Stock Return. The results indicate that DER significantly influences EVA and PBV, and TATO significantly influences MVA. Return Shares are significantly only affected by EVA. The company's fundamentals, especially EVA, PBV, TATO and DER were used by investors to predict the Stock Return in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2009–2014 period. This study confirmed the previous studies that these variables are involved on regression model to predict the Stock Return. The results of the analysis of the company's financial performance with EVA and MVA and financial fundamental variables provide a better alternative picture on the achievement of the company so that the benefits in investing in the palm oil business in Indonesia can be maximally managed.Keywords: Indonesia Stock Exchange, investor, market, multiple regression, stock

  9. The Return to Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...

  10. The return to foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...... cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return....

  11. Level crossing analysis of the stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafari, G. R.; Movahed, M. S.; Fazeli, S. M.; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza; Masoudi, S. F.

    2006-06-01

    We investigate the average frequency of positive slope να+ crossing for the returns of market prices. The method is based on stochastic processes in which no scaling feature is explicitly required. Using this method we define a new quantity to quantify the stage of development and activity of stock exchanges. We compare the Tehran and western stock markets and show that some, such as the Tehran (TEPIX) and New Zealand (NZX) stock exchanges, are emerging, and also that TEPIX is a non-active market and is financially motivated to absorb capital.

  12. Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

  13. Trading Mechanisms, Return’s Volatility, and Efficiency in the Casablance Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Mehdi Ferrouhi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE This paper studies the impact of the stock market continuity on the returns volatility and on the market efficiency in the Casablanca Stock Exchange. For the most active stocks, the trading mechanism used is the continuous market which is preceded by a call market pre opening session. Results obtained concerning return volatility and efficiency under the two trading mechanisms show that the continuous market returns are more volatile than the call market returns and 50% of stocks studied show independence between variations.   Keywords: Trading mechanism, microstructure, call market, continuous market, efficiency, volatility

  14. Stock selection using a hybrid MCDM approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tea Poklepović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of selecting the right stocks to invest in is of immense interest for investors on both emerging and developed capital markets. Moreover, an investor should take into account all available data regarding stocks on the particular market. This includes fundamental and stock market indicators. The decision making process includes several stocks to invest in and more than one criterion. Therefore, the task of selecting the stocks to invest in can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. Using several MCDM methods often leads to divergent rankings. The goal of this paper is to resolve these possible divergent results obtained from different MCDM methods using a hybrid MCDM approach based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Five MCDM methods are selected: COPRAS, linear assignment, PROMETHEE, SAW and TOPSIS. The weights for all criteria are obtained by using the AHP method. Data for this study includes information on stock returns and traded volumes from March 2012 to March 2014 for 19 stocks on the Croatian capital market. It also includes the most important fundamental and stock market indicators for selected stocks. Rankings using five selected MCDM methods in the stock selection problem yield divergent results. However, after applying the proposed approach the final hybrid rankings are obtained. The results show that the worse stocks to invest in happen to be the same when the industry is taken into consideration or when not. However, when the industry is taken into account, the best stocks to invest in are slightly different, because some industries are more profitable than the others.

  15. Portfolio volatility of Islamic and conventional stock: The case of Indonesia stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldrin Herwany

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.

  16. O impacto da liquidez nos retornos esperados das debêntures brasileiras El impacto de la liquidez en los rendimientos esperados de las obligaciones brasileñas The impact of liquidity on expected returns from Brazilian corporate bonds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Hofheinz Giacomoni

    2013-03-01

    ño. Se realizaron análisis de regresión con datos de panel desbalanceado de 101 obligaciones durante ocho semestres (del primero semestre de 2006 al segundo semestre de 2009, con un total de 382 observaciones. Se utilizaron siete proxies (spread de compra y venta, %cero returns, edad, volumen de emisión, valor nominal de emisión, cantidad emitida y %tiempo para evaluar el impacto del riesgo de liquidez en los rendimientos de las obligaciones. El diferencial de rendimiento fue controlado por hasta diez otras variables determinantes a excepción de la liquidez (interés, riesgo crédito, tasa libre de riesgo, rating, duration, cuatro variables contables y equity volatility. La hipótesis nula de que no existe una prima de liquidez para el mercado secundario de obligaciones en Brasil fue rechazada sólo para tres de los siete proxies (spread de compra y venta, valor nominal de emisión y cantidad emitida. Los premios encontrados son muy bajos (1,9 basis point para cada 100 basis point de aumento del spread de compra y venta, 0,5 basis point a un aumento del 1% en el valor nominal de emisión y 0,17 basis point para al menos 1000 debentures emitidos. De todos modos hubo una pérdida en la eficiencia de los proxies de liquidez después de la corrección de las autocorrelaciones y potenciales endogeneidades, ya sea por medio de la inclusión de efectos fijos, del análisis de las primeras diferencias o del uso de un sistema de tres ecuaciones. Estos resultados apuntan hacia la sospecha de que el riesgo de liquidez no es un factor importante en la composición de las expectativas de los inversores en el mercado secundario de bonos.This study aims to identify the impact of liquidity risk on expected excess returns of Brazilian corporate bonds in the secondary market. We performed a battery of regression analysis with semiannual unbalanced panel data for 101 securities over eight semesters (first semester of 2006 to the second half of 2009, totaling 382 observations. Seven

  17. Price Reaction of Airline Stocks after Accidents: International Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Reed Bergmann

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Objective. In this paper we evaluate the reaction of airline stock prices after the occurrence of an extreme event, the air crash, based on international evidence.Methodology. We selected 49 cases that occurred between January of 1990 and April of 2011, we used the method of event studies. Cumulative Abnormal Return (CAR was obtained through the simple addition of all abnormal returns contained in an event window. We also tested the existence of price reaction differences in high and low disclosure markets.Findings. The results obtained in this article, from a sample of 49 events, suggest that stock prices of air transport companies are instantaneously and negatively impacted by the occurrence of aerial accidents, average CAR of 4,3% until the tenth trading day after the event. And, this decrease in prices seems to be more pronounced when there are fatalities, but at the same time no differences were found due to the level of disclosure of the market in which the company is based. In addition, there appears to be a statistically significant negative reaction to the air crash, resulting in loss of shareholder wealth. The analyzes indicate that, as expected, the events in which victims were found, the loss of value of the company was considerably higher.Originality/Value. This article, in a pioneering way, considers the level of disclosure typical of the markets in the evaluation of the reaction of the prices to the occurrence of aerial accidents.

  18. Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

    2017-06-05

    This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors' perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes.

  19. Why African Stock Markets Should Formally Harmonise and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    constructed and supplied by Africa Business Research Ltd, a UK-based independent ... Table 1 reports descriptive statistics and diagnostics of daily returns for all 16 ...... Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental. Values? Journal ...

  20. ANALISA PENGARUH BETA, SIZE PERUSAHAAN, DER DAN PBV RATIO TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Sugiarto

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperlihatkan beberapa variabel yang menjadi pemrediksi stock return. Variabel tersebut adalah Beta, Company Size, DER ratio and PBV ratio. Berdasarkan analisis regresi, beta mempunyai dampak yang positif terhadap stock return tetapi tidak signifikan, besar kecilnya perusahaan dan rasio PBV mempunyai dampak positif dan signifikan, sedangkan rasio DER mempunyai dampak negative dan signifikan terhadap stock return. Dampak variabel-variabel pada stock return pada perusahaan-perusahaan yang terdaftar di Main Board Index (MBX lebih tinggi daripada perusahaan-perusahaan yang terdaftar pada Development Board Index (DBX. The research has a purpose for showing some factors that become the predictor for the stock return. They are Beta, Company Size, DER ratio and PBV ratio. From the reggresion analysis, the results say that beta have a positive effect to the stock return, but it is not significant; the company size and PBV ratio have a positive and significant effect to the stock return; while the DER ratio have a negative and significant effect to the stock return. The variables effect on stock return in companies that listed in Main Board Index (MBX is higher than in companies listed in Development Board Index (DBX.

  1. SKEWNESS IN INDIVIDUAL STOCKS AT DIFFERENT FREQUENCIES

    OpenAIRE

    Amado Peiró

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the (a)symmetry of twenty-four individual stock returns at different frequencies: daily, weekly and monthly. While some asymmetries are observed in daily returns, they disappear almost completely at lower frequencies. The explanation for this fact lies in the convergence to normality that takes place when frequency decreases. These features allow one to question several financial models; in particular, they question the preference for positive skewness as a factor for inve...

  2. Connecting VIX and Stock Index ETF

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin CHANG; Hsieh, Tai-Lin; McAleer, Michael

    2017-01-01

    textabstractAs stock market indexes are not tradeable, the importance and trading volume of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) cannot be understated. ETFs track and attempt to replicate the performance of a specific index. Numerous studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the S&P500 Composite Index and the Volatility Index (VIX), but few empirical studies have focused on the relationship between VIX and ETF returns. The purpose of the paper is to investigate whether VIX returns affec...

  3. Short-Term Stock Price Reversals May Be Reversed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available In present study, I explore intraday behavior of stock prices. In particular, I try to shed light onthe dynamics of stock price reversals and namely, on the short-term character the latter maypossess. For each of the stocks currently making up the Dow Jones Industrial Index, I calculateintraday upside and downside volatility measures, following Becker et al. (2008 and Klossner etal. (2012, as a proxy for reversed overreactions to good and bad news, respectively. I documentthat for all the stocks in the sample, mean daily returns following the days when a stock’supside volatility measure was higher or equal to its downside volatility measure are higher thanfollowing the days when the opposite relationship held, indicating that stock prices display ashort-run ‘reversals of reversals’ behavior following corrected, or reversed, overreactions tonews. Furthermore, I construct seven different portfolios built upon the idea of daily adjustinga long position in the stocks that according to ‘reversals of reversals’ behavior are expectedto yield high daily returns, and a short position in the stocks, whose daily returns are expectedto be low. All the portfolios yield significantly positive returns, providing an evidence for thepractical applicability of the ‘reversals of reversals’ pattern in stock prices.

  4. Why do Goals Matter? Sport Events and Capital Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurora Murgea

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Expected utility theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH seem to be unable to properly explain the returns’ evolution in the stock market. The players does not act as rational as the theories assume and the prices seldom follow the EMH rules. The football clubs stock prices represent a good example for this statement since their stockholders have both rationale and emotional reasons for their investment. On the one side, they act as a regular investor who decide been driven by profit but on the other side they are usually fans of those clubs and have an emotional determinant for holding the stocks. The aim of this paper is analyses the relationship between the football matches outcomes and price returns on a time span that range during ten seasons 2006/2007 – 2015/2016, for Borussia Dortmund (Germany, AFC Ajax (Holland, Lazio (Italy and a nine seasons time span(2007/2008 – 2015/2016 for SL Benfica (Portugal.

  5. Forecasting Volatility in Indian Stock Market using Artificial Neural Network with Multiple Inputs and Outputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    DattaChaudhuri, Tamal; Ghosh, Indranil

    2015-06-01

    Volatility in stock markets has been extensively studied in the applied finance literature. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network models based on various back propagation algorithms have been constructed to predict volatility in the Indian stock market through volatility of NIFTY returns and volatility of gold returns. This model considers India VIX, CBOE VIX, volatility of crude oil returns (CRUDESDR), volatility of DJIA returns (DJIASDR), volatility of DAX returns (DAXSDR), volatility of Hang Seng returns (HANGSDR) and volatility of Nikkei returns (NIKKEISDR) as predictor variables. Three sets of experiments have been performed over three time periods to judge the effectiveness of the approach.

  6. TÜRKİYE HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI GETİRİ VE OYNAKLIĞINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEM BAĞIMLILIK İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR LONG TERM-DEPENDENCE IN THE RETURN AND VOLATILITY OF TURKISH STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available ÖZ: Çalışma ARFIMA-FIGARCH modelleri yardımıyla Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası getirilerinde ikili uzun hafıza özelliğinin varlığını incelemekte dolayısıyla zayıf formda etkin piyasa hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu amaçla kullanılan veri 2010-2013 dönemi Borsa İstanbul (BIST için günlük hisse senedi kapanış fiyatlarını içermektedir. Öncelikle ortalama ve oynaklıktaki uzun hafızanın varlığı ayrı olarak incelenmiştir. ARFIMA modeli sonuçları BIST getirileri için ortalamada uzun hafıza özelliği gösterirken, getiri oynaklıklarındaki uzun hafızanın varlığı için FIGARCH modeli de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar vermiştir. İkinci olarak, ortalama ve oynaklıktaki birlikte uzun hafıza özelliği ARFIMA-FIGARCH modeli ile değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ortalamada uzun hafızanın varlığına dair bir bulgu elde edilemezken, oynaklığın öngörülebilir bir yapı gösterdiği Türkiye borsası etkin bir piyasa değildir. Anahtar Kelimeler: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, İkili Uzun Hafıza, Oynaklık, Yapısal Kırılma, Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi. ABSTRACT: The study examines presence of dual long memory property in returns of Turkish Stock Market by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model and, tests Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis. The data set consists of daily closing prices for the period 2010 to 2013 of Istanbul Stock Exchange. Firstly, long memory property in return and volatility has been investigated separately. FIGARCH model indicates statistically significant findings while the results of ARFIMA model display long memory dynamics in returns of BIST. Secondly, long memory in return and volatility has been evaluated simultaneously by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. Consequently, Turkish Stock Market is not Efficient Market because volatility shows forecastable structure while there have not been obtained any finding about presence of long memory in return. Keywords: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, Dual Long Memory

  7. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth......, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year....

  8. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth......, and that curvature is related to subjective term premium expectations themselves. Finally, an aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year....

  9. Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, André; Dijk, van Ronald; Kloek, Teun

    2001-01-01

    Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially predictable.

  10. Stock Selection, Style Rotation, and Risk

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Lucas (André); R. van Dijk (Ronald); T. Kloek (Teun)

    2001-01-01

    textabstractUsing US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially

  11. The Interactive Influence of Perceived Ownership and Perceived Choosership of Stocks on Brain Response to Stock Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Zhe; Wang, Lei; Wu, Han

    2017-01-01

    The present research examined the influence of perceived ownership (self/other) and perceived chooser (self/other) of stocks on brain activity, and investigated whether differential brain responses to stock outcomes as a result of perceived differences in ownership of stock would be modulated by perceived chooser of stock. We used a 2 (stock chooser: self, other) × 2 (stock owner: self, other) within-subject design to represent four types of chooser-owner relationships. Brain potentials were recorded while participants observed increasing and decreasing stock prices. Results showed that observations of stock outcomes among four types of chooser-owner relationships elicited differentiated feedback-related negativity (d-FRN: differences in FRN waves between losses and gains, reflecting violations of expectancy to stock outcomes): (1) Self-chosen-other-owned stocks evoked significantly larger d-FRN discrepancies than self-chosen-self-owned stocks, indicating a greater expectancy violation to others' losses than to one's own, demonstrating a reversed ownership effect. Moreover, people high in conscientiousness showed an increase in this trend, suggesting a stronger other-consideration; (2) Self-chosen-self-owned stocks and other-chosen-self-owned stocks revealed no significant d-FRN discrepancy, showing no choosership effect beyond the ownership effect; (3) Other-chosen-self-owned stocks evoked a significantly stronger d-FRN discrepancy than other-chosen-other-owned stocks, demonstrating an ownership effect; (4) Self-chosen-other-owned stocks evoked a significantly stronger d-FRN discrepancy than other-chosen-other-owned stocks, revealing a choosership effect. These findings suggest that the ownership effect could be reversed by conscientiousness induced by perceived choosership in the agency relationship, while the choosership effect is attenuated and even disappears under the influence of perceived ownership.

  12. Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierdijk, L.; Bikker, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the implications of mean reversion in stock prices for longterm investors such as pension funds. We start with a general definition of a meanreverting price process and explain how mean reversion in stock prices is related to mean reversion in stock returns. Subsequently, we

  13. Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

  14. The Impact of a Surprise Dividend Increase on a Stocks Performance : the Analysis of Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Słoński

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The reaction of marginal investors to the announcement of a surprise dividend increase has been measured. Although field research is performed on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the paper has important theoretical implications. Valuation theory gives many clues for the interpretation of changes in dividends. At the start of the literature review, the assumption of the irrelevance of dividends (to investment decisions is described. This assumption is the basis for up-to-date valuation procedures leading to fundamental and fair market valuation of equity (shares. The paper is designed to verify whether the market value of stock is immune to the surprise announcement of a dividend increase. This study of the effect of a surprise dividend increase gives the chance to partially isolate such an event from dividend changes based on long-term expectations. The result of the research explicitly shows that a surprise dividend increase is on average welcomed by investors (an average abnormal return of 2.24% with an associated p-value of 0.001. Abnormal returns are realized by investors when there is a surprise increase in a dividend payout. The subsample of relatively high increases in a dividend payout enables investors to gain a 3.2% return on average. The results show that valuation models should be revised to take into account a possible impact of dividend changes on investors behavior. (original abstract

  15. Relationships between oil price shocks and stock market: An empirical analysis from China

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cong, Ronggang; Wei, Yi-Ming; Jiao, Jian-Ling

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the interactive relationships between oil price shocks and Chinese stock market using multivariate vector auto-regression. Oil price shocks do not show statistically significant impact on the real stock returns of most Chinese stock market indices, except for manufacturing...... index and some oil companies. Some “important” oil price shocks depress oil company stock prices. Increase in oil volatility may increase the speculations in mining index and petrochemicals index, which raise their stock returns. Both the world oil price shocks and China oil price shocks can explain...

  16. The Impact of Earning Surprise on Return and Volatility : A Comparative study between US and Australia using tick by tick data

    OpenAIRE

    Zaeem, Faz

    2015-01-01

    This research aims to evaluate and comparative the impact of earnings surprises on stock returns and volatility using high frequency data from stock markets in Australia and United States of America. Findings indicate that the correlation between earnings surprise and stock returns and volatility is statistically significant in both markets. US stocks tend to respond more strongly to negative earnings surprises as compared to Australian stocks due to varying corporate governance and legal env...

  17. Sign and Quantiles of the Realized Stock-Bond Correlation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte

    We scrutinize the monthly realized stock-bond correlation based upon high frequency returns. In particular, we use a probit model to track the dynamics of the sign of the correlation relative to its various economic forces. The sign is predictable to a large extent with bond market liquidity being...... the most important variable. Moreover, stock market volatility, inflation uncertainty, short rate volatility, and bond volatility have significant effects upon the sign. In addition, we use quantile regressions to pin down the systematic variation of the extreme tails of the realized stock-bond correlation...... of the stock-bond correlation....

  18. Realized Bond-Stock Correlation: Macroeconomic Announcement Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte; Ranaldo, Angelo

    2005-01-01

    We investigate the effects of macroeconomic announcements on the realized correlation between bond and stock returns. Our results deliver insights into the dominating drivers of bond-stock comovements. We find that it is not so much the surprise component of the announcement, but the mere fact...... that an announcement occurs that influences the realized bond-stock correlation. The impact of macroeconomic announcements varies across the business cycle. Announcement effects are highly dependent on the sign of the realized bond-stock correlation which has recently gone from positive to negative. Macroeconomic...

  19. Alternation of different fluctuation regimes in the stock market dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwapień, J.; Drożdż, S.; Speth, J.

    2003-12-01

    Based on the tick-by-tick stock prices from the German and American stock markets, we study the statistical properties of the distribution of the individual stocks and the index returns in highly collective and noisy intervals of trading, separately. We show that periods characterized by the strong inter-stock couplings can be associated with the distributions of index fluctuations which reveal more pronounced tails than in the case of weaker couplings in the market. During periods of strong correlations in the German market these distributions can even reveal an apparent Lévy-stable component.

  20. Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility : Experience of the Republic of Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Yung Chul; Park, Hail

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that for countries where equity investments dominate cross-border capital flows, the proper framework for analyzing the role of a flexible exchange rate system as a buffer against external shocks is the uncovered stock return parity condition, rather than the uncovered interest parity condition. Estimation of the stock return parity condition shows that it fails to hold in the Republic of Korea largely because of co-movement in the Republic of Korea and United States stock m...

  1. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arindam MANDAL

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is found. Also strong co-movements in returns and volatility are observed between the SENSEX and other major stock indexes during the post-recession period. Our results establish the dominance of global factors in influencing Indian stock market behavior during periods of economic turmoil.

  2. Causality between regional stock markets: A frequency domain approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gradojević Nikola

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Using a data set from five regional stock exchanges (Serbia, Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany, this paper presents a frequency domain analysis of a causal relationship between the returns on the CROBEX, SBITOP, CETOP and DAX indices, and the return on the major Serbian stock exchange index, BELEX 15. We find evidence of a somewhat dominant effect of the CROBEX and CETOP stock indices on the BELEX 15 stock index across a range of frequencies. The results also indicate that the BELEX 15 index and the SBITOP index interact in a bi-directional causal fashion. Finally, the DAX index movements consistently drive the BELEX 15 index returns for cycle lengths between 3 and 11 days without any feedback effect.

  3. SECTORAL RISK AND RETURN FOR COMPANIES IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anis Cecilia

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available probability that cash flows or return will vary from expectations. Standard corporate finance theory supposes that a company chooses a capital structure that maximizes company value. A fundamental idea in finance is the relationship between risk and return. The greater the amount of risk that an investor is willing to take on, the greater the potential return. The reason for this is that investors need to be compensated for taking on additional risk. Why put capital at significant risk for a return that is no higher than the return on government bonds? Or expect higher than averages returns from low-risk activities? It is impossible to separate measuring the performance of a company from the risks that the management takes to achieve it.In most aspects of company operations, risk assessment plays a different but equally important, role. It is an integral part of informed decision taking in achieving performance. Risk assessment is involved from the highest level in strategic choices about what activities to undertake, what assets to buy or what markets to serve all the way to detailed operational decisions about whether to accept payment in foreign currencies and the adequacy of safety measures in the workplace. It plays a part whether or not an organization is aware of managing risk and many managers feel that their instinct and judgment are enough – a behavior risk. The danger is that this leaves company risk unplanned and unmanaged. This paper proposes a framework where we realized a study cases: we test if return on assets and return on equity has influence on the risk, both on long and short term. For this purposes, we conduct an empirical research that covers 59 selected companies traded at the Bucharest Stock Exchange within the time period 1999-2010. For this study our results reveal that dynamic global risk can be associated to a low intensity with total assets performance of the company’s. Investments efficiency and the

  4. Understanding the multifractality in portfolio excess returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cheng; Wang, Yudong

    2017-01-01

    The multifractality in stock returns have been investigated extensively. However, whether the autocorrelations in portfolio returns are multifractal have not been considered in the literature. In this paper, we detect multifractal behavior of returns of portfolios constructed based on two popular trading rules, size and book-to-market (BM) ratio. Using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, we find that the portfolio returns are significantly multifractal and the multifractality is mainly attributed to long-range dependence. We also investigate the multifractal cross-correlation between portfolio return and market average return using the detrended cross-correlation analysis. Our results show that the cross-correlations of small fluctuations are persistent, while those of large fluctuations are anti-persistent.

  5. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...... strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...

  6. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...

  7. Margin Requirements and Equity Option Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hitzemann, Steffen; Hofmann, Michael; Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

    In equity option markets, traders face margin requirements both for the options themselves and for hedging-related positions in the underlying stock market. We show that these requirements carry a significant margin premium in the cross-section of equity option returns. The sign of the margin...

  8. Margin Requirements and Equity Option Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hitzemann, Steffen; Hofmann, Michael; Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese

    In equity option markets, traders face margin requirements both for the options themselves and for hedging-related positions in the underlying stock market. We show that these requirements carry a significant "margin premium" in the cross-section of equity option returns. The sign of the margin...

  9. Value-at-risk and extreme returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J. Daníelsson (Jón); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    2000-01-01

    textabstractWe propose a semi-parametric method for unconditional Value-at-Risk (VaR) evaluation. The largest risks are modelled parametrically, while smaller risks are captured by the non-parametric empirical distribution function. A comparison of methods on a portfolio of stock and option returns

  10. Stock Splits and Stock Dividends: Why, Who, and When.

    OpenAIRE

    Lakonishok, Josef; Lev, Baruch

    1987-01-01

    This study investigates empirically why firms split their stock or distribute stock dividends and why the market reacts favorably to these distributions. The findings suggest that stock splits are mainly aimed at restoring stock prices to a "normal range." Some support can also be found for the oft-mentioned signaling motive of stock splits. Stock dividends are altogether different from stock splits and they appear to be a decreasing phenomenon. The clue to stock dividend distributions may li...

  11. Month of the year and pre-holiday effects in African stock markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Alagidede

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the existence of two anomalies in African stock returns: the month of the year and the pre-holiday effects, and their implications for stock market efficiency.  We extend the traditional approach to modelling anomalies and examine the mean and variance of returns. We document high and significant returns in days preceding a holiday in South Africa. Our results indicate that the month of the year effect is prevalent in African stock returns. However, we argue that, owing to illiquidity and round trip transactions costs, the anomalies uncovered do not necessarily violate the no-arbitrage condition.

  12. Does Realized Skewness Predict the Cross-Section of Equity Returns?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amaya, Diego; Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris

    2015-01-01

    We use intraday data to compute weekly realized moments for equity returns and study their time-series and cross-sectional properties. Buying stocks in the lowest realized skewness decile and selling stocks in the highest realized skewness decile generates an average return of 19 basis points the...

  13. A spring-block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

    OpenAIRE

    Bulcsu Sandor; Zoltan Neda

    2014-01-01

    A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring-block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets....

  14. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over......' expectation formation. Chapters IV and V constitute the methodological contribution of the dissertation. Chapter IV develops a general method for decomposing total effects into its direct and indirect counterparts in nonlinear probability models such as the logistic response model. The method forms a solution...

  15. Stock Market Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distel, Brenda D.

    This project is designed to teach students the process of buying stocks and to tracking their investments over the course of a semester. The goals of the course are to teach students about the relationships between conditions in the economy and the stock market; to predict the effect of an economic event on a specific stock or industry; to relate…

  16. Dynamic relations between stock markets index returns: Empirical evidence through multivariate approaches. Relações dinâmicas entre retornos de índices de mercados acionários: Evidências empíricas através de abordagens multivariadas.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horst Dieter Moller

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this article was to identify both the structure and the standards of relations between stock markets returns. To accomplish this study, twelve indexes were investigated (Germany, Argentina, Australia, Brazil, United States of America, France, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, England, Japan and Mexico. The data related to the time series of each stock returns investigated were from July, 27th of 2006 and March, 19th of 2007. To aim the objective proposed, three complementary multivariate methodological approaches were utilized: cluster analysis, the multidimensional scaling and the factor analysis. The procedures were carried out through the aid of the statistical application STATISTICA for Windows. The results showed some evidence that corroborate standards of relations based on geographic location of these markets investigated.O objetivo deste artigo foi identificar a estrutura e padrões de relações existentes entre os retornos dos índices de diversos mercados acionários. Para a realização do estudo, foram utilizados 12 índices, pertencentes a diversos mercados acionários (Alemanha, Argentina, Austrália, Brasil, Estados Unidos, França, Hong Kong, ͍ndia, Indonésia, Inglaterra, Japão e México. Os dados relativos às séries históricas das cotações dos índices de mercado inseridos nesta investigação são relativos aos valores registrados ao final do pregão do período entre 27 de julho de 2006 e 19 de Março de 2007. Para atingir o objetivo proposto, foram utilizadas três abordagens metodológicas multivariadas complementares: a análise de agrupamentos, o escalonamento multidimensional e a análise fatorial. Os resultados obtidos revelam evidências que corroboram padrões de relacionamento baseados na localização geográfica dos mercados acionários investigados.

  17. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    In this dissertation I examine the relationship between subjective beliefs about the outcomes of educational choices and the generation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) in post-industrial society. Taking my departure in the rational action turn in the sociology of educational...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  18. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... inequalities if educational reform is to promote educational and social mobility in post-industrial society. I pursue my research agenda in five chapters. In the introductory Chapter I I situate my research contributions in the tradition of the sociology of educational stratification. This chapter also...... outlines how the expectation-based explanation of IEO complements explanations stressing family resources as an important cause of IEO; it carefully defines "expectation," the core concept underlying the dissertation; it places the methodological contributions of the dissertation in the debate over...

  19. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......, they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  20. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...... stratification, I argue that students facing significant educational transitions form their educational expectations by taking into account the foreseeable, yet inherently uncertain, consequences of potential educational pathways. This process of expectation formation, I posit, involves evaluations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...

  1. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    stratification, I argue that students facing significant educational transitions form their educational expectations by taking into account the foreseeable, yet inherently uncertain, consequences of potential educational pathways. This process of expectation formation, I posit, involves evaluations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...

  2. What Determines Stock Option Contract Design?

    OpenAIRE

    Pasternack, Daniel; Rosenberg, Matts

    2003-01-01

    This paper analyzes factors driving the design of stock option plans for Finnish firms. We examine determinants of the scope of plans, exercise price, target group, and dividend protection. The scope is found to be negatively related to Tobin’s Q and positively related to proxies for monitoring costs. The scope is also greater in broad-based plans, and in plans with dividend protection. Prior stock return is found to be negatively related to the size of the premium (out-of-the-moneyness), whe...

  3. Mandatory IFRS Reporting and Stock Price Informativeness

    OpenAIRE

    Beuselinck, C.A.C.; Joos, P.P.M.; Khurana, I.K.; Meulen, S. van der

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we examine whether mandatory adoption of IFRS influences the flow of firm-specific information and contributes to stock price informativeness as measured by stock return synchronicity. Using a constant sample of 1,904 mandatory IFRS adopters in 14 EU countries for the period 2003-2007, we find a V-shaped pattern in synchronicity around IFRS adoption, which is consistent with IFRS disclosures revealing new firm-specific information in the adoption period (i.e., a reduction of sy...

  4. Expected Value

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Lapson

    1992-01-01

    A procedure for decision-making under risk is developed and axiomatized. It provides another explanation for the Allais paradox as well as justification for some other preference patterns that can not be represented by the expected utility model, but it includes expected utility representation fo preferences as a particular case. The idea of the procedure is that evaluation of the lotteries takes two steps. First, a decision maker classifies a lottery as a "bad," "good" or "medium" one. Then ...

  5. On the exact calculation of the mean stock level in the base stock periodic review policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenia Babiloni

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: One of the most usual indicators to measure the performance of any inventory policy is the mean stock level. In the generalized base stock, periodic review policy, the expected mean stock during the replenishment cycle is usually estimated by practitioners and researchers with the traditional Hadley-Whitin approximation. However it is not accurate enough and exact methods suggested on the related literature focus on specific demand distributions. This paper proposes a generalized method to compute the exact value of the expected mean stock to be used when demand is modelled by any uncorrelated, discrete and stationary demand pattern.Design/methodology/approach: The suggested method is based on computing the probability of every stock level at every point of the replenishment cycle for which it is required to know the probability of any stock level at the beginning of the cycle and the probability transition matrix between two consecutive periods of time. Furthermore, the traditional Hadley-Whitin approximation is compared with the proposed exact method over different discrete demand distributionsFindings: This paper points out the lack of accuracy that the Hadley-Whitin approximation shows over a wide range of service levels and discrete demand distributions. Research limitations/implications: The suggested method requires the availability of appropriate tools as well as a sound mathematical background. For this reason, approximations to it are the logical further research of this work. Practical implications: The use of the Hadley-Whitin approximation instead of an exact method can lead to underestimate systematically the expected mean stock level. This fact may increase total costs of the inventory system.Originality/value: The original derivation of an exact method to compute the expected mean stock level for the base stock, periodic review policy when demand is modelled by any discrete function and backlog is not allowed.

  6. Empirical behavior of a world stock index from intra-day to monthly time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breymann, W.; Lüthi, D. R.; Platen, E.

    2009-10-01

    Most of the papers that study the distributional and fractal properties of financial instruments focus on stock prices or foreign exchange rates. This typically leads to mixed results concerning the distributions of log-returns and some multi-fractal properties of exchange rates, stock prices, and regional indices. This paper uses a well diversified world stock index as the central object of analysis. Such index approximates the growth optimal portfolio, which is demonstrated under the benchmark approach, it is the ideal reference unit for studying basic securities. When denominating this world index in units of a given currency, one measures the movements of the currency against the entire market. This provides a least disturbed observation of the currency dynamics. In this manner, one can expect to disentangle, e.g., the superposition of the two currencies involved in an exchange rate. This benchmark approach to the empirical analysis of financial data allows us to establish remarkable stylized facts. Most important is the observation that the repeatedly documented multi-fractal appearance of financial time series is very weak and much less pronounced than the deviation of the mono-scaling properties from Brownian-motion type scaling. The generalized Hurst exponent H(2) assumes typical values between 0.55 and 0.6. Accordingly, autocorrelations of log-returns decay according to a power law, and the quadratic variation vanishes when going to vanishing observation time step size. Furthermore, one can identify the Student t distribution as the log-return distribution of a well-diversified world stock index for long time horizons when a long enough data series is used for estimation. The study of dependence properties, finally, reveals that jumps at daily horizon originate primarily in the stock market while at 5min horizon they originate in the foreign exchange market. The principal message of the empirical analysis is that there is evidence that a diffusion model

  7. Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

    2013-01-01

    According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

  8. Barriers to portfolio investments in emerging stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Demirguc-Kunt, Asli; Huizinga, Harry

    1992-01-01

    The authors examine to what extent features of the international tax system and indicators of transaction costs affect the required rates of return on emerging stock markets. They show that the capital gains withholding tax levied on foreign portfolio investors increases required pre-tax rates of return. As countries generally do not index their capital gains taxes, it follows that inflation increases the capital gains tax base, as well as the required rate of return on equity. Dividend withh...

  9. THE DETERMINANTS OF PROFITABILITY IN COMPANIES LISTED ON THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SORANA VĂTAVU

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to establish the determinants of financial performance in 126 Romanian companies listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange, over a period of ten-years (2003-2012. The analysis is based on cross sectional regressions. Return on assets is the performance proxy, while the variables expected to have a significant impact on profitability are debt, asset tangibility, size, liquidity, taxation, risk, inflation and crisis. Regression results indicate that profitable companies operate with limited borrowings. Tangibility, business risk and the level of taxation have a negative impact on return on assets. Although earnings are sustained by significant sales turnover, performance is affected by high levels of liquidity. Periods of unstable economic conditions, reflected by high inflation rates and the current financial crisis, have a strong negative impact on corporate performance.

  10. FAKTOR MAKRO EKONOMI (VARIABEL CRR PADA RETURN PORTOFOLIO PASAR SAHAM DI INDONESIA SAAT BULLISH DAN BEARISH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth Lucky Maretha Sitinjak

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Stock market conditions in Indonesia since 1998 until 2008 is increasing with the 500 IDX Composite can be inflated into 2000s. This becomes interesting factor associated with macro-economic factors that affect the variabel CRR (Chen Roll and Ross. Researchers exam which we form portofiolio into 3 classes, large, medium, and large size companies from multiplying shares outstanding by its stock price. This research periodesasi long enough so that the portfolio is formed only by 15 issuers, this is caused by mergers or acquisitions from the issuer, the issuer is listed on the Stock Exchange from 1998-2008. However, with 11 years of data is very good for macro economic conditions in Indonesia. Independen variabels of this study consisted of changes in inflation expectations (DEIt, unexpected inflation (Uit, unexpected risk free rate (URFt, and the rate of economic growth (GMT have a significant effect on portfolio return of capital market conditions are bullish for all forms of portfolio. Meanwhile, bearish market conditions only for the portfolio of small and large sizes only. Economic growth rate did not significantly affect the three portfolios in the bearish market conditions, this is because the movement of our stock in Indonesia is still largely influenced by foreign investors.

  11. Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte

    This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk......-return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight......-to-safety. The strength of the trade-off is strongest for own country flight-to-safety episodes. The risk-return trade-off is not significantly influenced by recession periods or the recent sovereign debt crisis. The main results hold for flight to gold instead of to bonds....

  12. Returning home

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Agergaard, Jytte; Brøgger, Ditte

    2016-01-01

    Migration to domestic and international destinations has become an emblematic feature of Nepal’s societal changes. Part of this development is education migration from rural to urban areas within the borders of Nepal, an often overlooked but increasingly important aspect of contemporary migration...... flows. By focusing on these educational migrants, this paper explores how they connect to their rural homes. Guided by a critical reading of the migration-development scholarship, the paper examines how migrants and their relatives make sense of educational migrants’ remitting and returning practices......, and by comparing three groups of educational migrants, the migrants’ reasons for staying connected and sending remittances are scrutinized. The paper finds that although educational migrants do not generate extensive economic remittances for local development in Nepal, they stay connected to their rural homes...

  13. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008...

  14. Deteksi Perbandingan Ekses Volatilitas Harga Serta Reaksi Earning terhadap Return & Harga Saham Sektor Lq45

    OpenAIRE

    Setyawan, I. Roni; Sudarto

    2006-01-01

    This paper examines the validity of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) valuation model through stock price volatility and earning volatility excesses. Our research also analyzes stock price reaction to earning. Based on existence of stock price mispricing; there is no investor who will obtain abnormal return if we follow EMH. We find JS is not efficient. Over the observation periods; investors have more concerned with stock market volatility than earning quality. Specifically they have remaine...

  15. Application of integrated data mining techniques in stock market forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chin-Yin Huang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Stock market is considered too uncertain to be predictable. Many individuals have developed methodologies or models to increase the probability of making a profit in their stock investment. The overall hit rates of these methodologies and models are generally too low to be practical for real-world application. One of the major reasons is the huge fluctuation of the market. Therefore, the current research focuses in the stock forecasting area is to improve the accuracy of stock trading forecast. This paper introduces a system that addresses the particular need. The system integrates various data mining techniques and supports the decision-making for stock trades. The proposed system embeds the top-down trading theory, artificial neural network theory, technical analysis, dynamic time series theory, and Bayesian probability theory. To experimentally examine the trading return of the presented system, two examples are studied. The first uses the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC data-set that covers an investment horizon of 240 trading days from 16 February 2011 to 23 January 2013. Eighty four transactions were made using the proposed approach and the investment return of the portfolio was 54% with an 80.4% hit rate during a 12-month period in which the TSMC stock price increased by 25% (from $NT 78.5 to $NT 101.5. The second example examines the stock data of Evergreen Marine Corporation, an international marine shipping company. Sixty four transactions were made and the investment return of the portfolio was 128% in 12 months. Given the remarkable investment returns in trading the example TSMC and Evergreen stocks, the proposed system demonstrates promising potentials as a viable tool for stock market forecasting.

  16. Network structure detection and analysis of Shanghai stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sen Wu

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: In order to investigate community structure of the component stocks of SSE (Shanghai Stock Exchange 180-index, a stock correlation network is built to find the intra-community and inter-community relationship. Design/methodology/approach: The stock correlation network is built taking the vertices as stocks and edges as correlation coefficients of logarithm returns of stock price. It is built as undirected weighted at first. GN algorithm is selected to detect community structure after transferring the network into un-weighted with different thresholds. Findings: The result of the network community structure analysis shows that the stock market has obvious industrial characteristics. Most of the stocks in the same industry or in the same supply chain are assigned to the same community. The correlation of the internal stock prices’ fluctuation is closer than in different communities. The result of community structure detection also reflects correlations among different industries. Originality/value: Based on the analysis of the community structure in Shanghai stock market, the result reflects some industrial characteristics, which has reference value to relationship among industries or sub-sectors of listed companies.

  17. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    In this dissertation I examine the relationship between subjective beliefs about the outcomes of educational choices and the generation of inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) in post-industrial society. Taking my departure in the rational action turn in the sociology of educational...... different educational choices according to their family background. IEO thus appears to be mediated by the expectations students hold for their futures. Taken together, this research agenda argues that both researchers and policy-makers need to consider the expectation-based origin of educational...... strongly suggest that students rely on information about their academic performances when considering their educational prospects. The two chapters thus highlight that educational expectations are subject to change over the educational career, and that educational systems play a prominent role in students...

  18. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  19. Optimistic expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Claus

    2015-01-01

    Young Australians’ post-school futures are uncertain, insecure and fluid in relation to working life. But if you think that this is the recipe for a next generation of depressed young Australians, you may be wrong. A new book documents that young people are characterised by optimism, but their ex......, but their expectations of the future differ from those of their parents....

  20. Hot money and China's stock market volatility: Further evidence using the GARCH-MIDAS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Yu; Yu, Qianwen; Liu, Jing; Cao, Yang

    2018-02-01

    This paper investigates the influence of hot money on the return and volatility of the Chinese stock market using a nonlinear Granger causality test and a new GARCH-class model based on mixed data sampling regression (GARCH-MIDAS). The empirical results suggest that no linear or nonlinear causality exists between the growth rate of hot money and the Chinese stock market return, implying that the Chinese stock market is not driven by hot money and vice versa. However, hot money has a significant positive impact on the long-term volatility of the Chinese stock market. Furthermore, the dependence between the long-term volatility caused by hot money and the total volatility of the Chinese stock market is time-variant, indicating that huge volatilities in the stock market are not always triggered by international speculation capital flow and that Chinese authorities should further focus on more systemic reforms in the trading rules and on effectively regulating the stock market.

  1. Measuring Bubble Expectations and Investor Confidence

    OpenAIRE

    Robert J. Shiller

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents evidence on attitude changes among investors in the US stock market. Two basic attitudes are explored: bubble expectations and investor confidence. Semiannual time-series indicators of these attitudes are presented for US stock market institutional investors based on questionnaire survey results 1989 1998, from surveys that I have derived in collaboration with Fumiko Kon-Ya and Yoshiro Tsutsui. Five different time-series indicators of whether there is among investors an ex...

  2. THE STEEL EUROPEAN STOCK MARKET EFFICIENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viorica CHIRILA

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Testing the hypothesis of informational efficiency is a permanent preoccupation of researchers because the theories and the models of modern finance are based on it. This paper presents the results obtained after testing the efficiency hypothesis, in the weak form, for the European stock market of the companies that belong to the economic steel sub-sector. Following the use of both linear and non-linear tests of autocorrelation of returns we can conclude that the European stock market in the economic steel sub-sector is inefficient from an informational point of view and the investors in these stocks may obtain better results than those of the European market in general.

  3. Overreaction and representativeness heuristic in initial public offering: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Khalili Araghi

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The subject of initial public offering (IPO and the unusual short-time return of compared with another stocks, allocated many studies and researches in world level and in stock market to itself. The studied researches pointed to the short-time return of IPOs, which are higher than market and its long term return in return. One of the main hypothesis of behavioral finance is overreaction that is the main factor of overreaction in investor behavior is representativeness heuristic. This paper investigates overreaction behavior on shares of IPOs in Tehran stock exchange by considering 2 strategies of buy and hold and cumulative average return. The study investigates the effects of different factors such as price, market value, prior return and trading volume on overreaction. The results show negative effects of price and transaction volume on overreaction. In another words, price and volume of transactions are lower (higher and higher return (lower and therefore increased overreaction.

  4. On the Feed-back Mechanism of Chinese Stock Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Shu Quan; Ito, Takao; Zhang, Jianbo

    Feed-back models in the stock markets research imply an adjustment process toward investors' expectation for current information and past experiences. Error-correction and cointegration are often used to evaluate the long-run relation. The Efficient Capital Market Hypothesis, which had ignored the effect of the accumulation of information, cannot explain some anomalies such as bubbles and partial predictability in the stock markets. In order to investigate the feed-back mechanism and to determine an effective model, we use daily data of the stock index of two Chinese stock markets with the expectational model, which is one kind of geometric lag models. Tests and estimations of error-correction show that long-run equilibrium seems to be seldom achieved in Chinese stock markets. Our result clearly shows the common coefficient of expectations and fourth-order autoregressive disturbance exist in the two Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, we find the same coefficient of expectations has an autoregressive effect on disturbances in the two Chinese stock markets. Therefore the presence of such feed-back is also supported in Chinese stock markets.

  5. Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Malcolm Baker; Jeffrey Wurgler

    2007-01-01

    Investor sentiment, defined broadly, is a belief about future cash flows and investment risks that is not justified by the facts at hand. The question is no longer whether investor sentiment affects stock prices, but how to measure investor sentiment and quantify its effects. One approach is "bottom up," using biases in individual investor psychology, such as overconfidence, representativeness, and conservatism, to explain how individual investors underreact or overreact to past returns or fu...

  6. The study of issuance of stocks in venture companies listed in Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Amiri

    2016-09-01

    relationship between financing and future stock returns through the issuance of stocks.

  7. DEVELOPMENT OF INTELLIGENT DECISION MAKING MODEL FOR STOCK MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    Nenortaite, Jovita; Simutis, Rimvydas

    2005-01-01

    This paper is focused on the development of intelligent decision making model which is based on the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and swarm intelligence technologies. The proposed model is used to generate one-step forward investment decisions. The ANN are used to make the analysis of historical stock returns and to calculate one day forward possible profit, which could be get while following the model proposed decisions, concerning the purchase of the stocks. Subsequently t...

  8. —The Stock Market's Pricing of Customer Satisfaction

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Ittner; David Larcker; Daniel Taylor

    2009-01-01

    A number of recent marketing studies examine the stock market's response to the release of American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) scores. The broad purpose of these studies is to investigate the stock market's valuation of customer satisfaction. However, a key focus is on whether customer satisfaction information predicts long-run returns. We provide evidence on the market's pricing of ACSI information using a more comprehensive set of well-established tests from the accounting and finan...

  9. Hisse Senetleri Fiyatlarının Belirlenmesinde Finansal Oranların Rolü(The Role of Financial Ratios in Determining the Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oğuzhan AYDEMİR

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, financial ratios being effective in determining stock prices are investigated by panel data analysis. In this aim, data set belonging to 73 companies indexed in Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE and operating in manufacturing sector over the period of 1990-2000 is used. Empirical results suggest that profitability and liquidity ratios have a positive effect on stock returns. Moreover, leverage ratio taken as an indicator of indebtedness has the same effect. However, it is seen that operating ratios have no impact on stock returns. Consequently, it may be said that the role of financial ratios in determining the stock returns is low.

  10. PENGARUH EARNINGS SURPRISE TERHADAP CONTRARIUM RETURN SHARE PRICES

    OpenAIRE

    Aristianto, Astri Indranila

    2013-01-01

    Earning surprise is difference between earning forecast and earning announcement value. Earning surprise will influence stock price of a company, so it needs a strategy to make expected investment. This research utilized contrarian strategy that was opposite strategy to habit by doing stock purchase when market was experiencing decrease and other investors did selling and sold their share when market was experiencing increase, while other investors made stock purchasing (Manurung, 2009). The ...

  11. Association between Stock Market Gains and Losses and Google Searches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arditi, Eli; Yechiam, Eldad; Zahavi, Gal

    2015-01-01

    Experimental studies in the area of Psychology and Behavioral Economics have suggested that people change their search pattern in response to positive and negative events. Using Internet search data provided by Google, we investigated the relationship between stock-specific events and related Google searches. We studied daily data from 13 stocks from the Dow-Jones and NASDAQ100 indices, over a period of 4 trading years. Focusing on periods in which stocks were extensively searched (Intensive Search Periods), we found a correlation between the magnitude of stock returns at the beginning of the period and the volume, peak, and duration of search generated during the period. This relation between magnitudes of stock returns and subsequent searches was considerably magnified in periods following negative stock returns. Yet, we did not find that intensive search periods following losses were associated with more Google searches than periods following gains. Thus, rather than increasing search, losses improved the fit between people's search behavior and the extent of real-world events triggering the search. The findings demonstrate the robustness of the attentional effect of losses.

  12. Measurement Of Shariah Stock Performance Using Risk Adjusted Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhairan Y Yunan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this research is to analyze the shariah stock performance using risk adjusted performance method. There are three parameters to measure the stock performance i.e. Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen. This performance’s measurements calculate the return and risk factor from shariah stocks. The data that used on this research is using the data of stocks at Jakarta Islamic Index. Sampling method that used on this paper is purposive sampling. This research is using ten companies as a sample. The result shows that from three parameters, the stock that have a best performance are AALI, ANTM, ASII, CPIN, INDF, KLBF, LSIP, and UNTR.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v7i1.1364

  13. PENGARUH RASIO ARUS KAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR KELOMPOK BASIC INDUSTRY AND CHEMICALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuli Soesetio

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This research purpose are to know the influence of cash flow ratio to stock return every windows periods. Cash flow ratio that used are OCFR,TDR, and CFROA that get from comparing between operational cash flow with current liabilities, total liabilities and total assets on 2008 th-2009 th. Stock return that used are stock return before, on, after, and around annual reports publication that devided become 16 window periods that are five days before publication, on publication, five days after publication, and five days around publication.Sample of this research are 22 of Basic Industry and Chemicals Manufacturing Companies financial statements on 2008th-2009th with purposive sampling tech. The data analyze that use is multiple linear regression. The results of this research are OCFR influence to stock return at the first day around publication, TDR influence to stock return on publication, CFROA influence to stock return at fifth day, fourth day, third day before publication and third day, fourth day and fifth day around publication. The cash flow ratio influence to stock return simultaneous at fourth day before publication with adjusted R square 14,4%, on publication (t0 with adjusted R square 20,9%, the first day after publication with adjusted R square 21,1% and around publication (first day with adjusted R square 23,3% and fourth day with adjusted R square 10,5% 

  14. Forecasting Daily and Sessional Returns of the ISE-100 Index with Neural Network Models = Yapay Sinir Ağları Modelleri ile İMKB-100 Endeksinin Günlük ve Seanslık Getirilerinin Tahmin Edilmesi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emin AVCI

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Especially for the last decade, the neural network models have been applied to solve financial problems like portfolio construction and stock market forecasting. Among the alternative neural network models, the multilayer perceptron models are expected to be effective and widely applied in financial forecasting. This study examines the forecasting power multilayer perceptron models for daily and sessional returns of ISE-100 index. The findings imply that the multilayer perceptron models presented promising performance in forecasting the ISE-100 index returns. However, further emphasis should be placed on different input variables and model architectures in order to improve the forecasting performances.

  15. Stock Price Reactions to Short-Lived Public Information : The Case of Betting Odds

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2005-01-01

    Stock markets and betting markets co-exist for professional soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange.For each firm, two pieces of information are released to the stock market on a weekly basis from August to June: experts expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the

  16. The impact of financial crises on the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Zhu, Jie

    50% in magnitude during …financial crises. No such changes are observed during NBER recessions, so in this sense …financial crises are special. Applications to a number of major developed and emerging international stock markets confirm the increase in the leverage effect, whereas the international......We investigate the impact of financial crises on two fundamental features of stock returns, namely, the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect. We apply the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) model for daily stock return data, which includes both features...... and allows the co-existence of long memory in volatility and short memory in returns. We extend this model to allow the financial parameters governing the volatility-in-mean effect and the leverage effect to change during financial crises. An application to the daily U.S. stock index return series from 1926...

  17. The impact of financial crises on the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Zhu, Jie

    2015-01-01

    % in magnitude during financial crises. No such changes are observed during NBER recessions, so in this sense financial crises are special. Applications to a number of major developed and emerging international stock markets confirm the increase in the leverage effect, whereas the international evidence......We investigate the impact of financial crises on two fundamental features of stock returns, namely, the risk-return tradeoff and the leverage effect. We apply the fractionally integrated exponential GARCH-in-mean (FIEGARCH-M) model for daily stock return data, which includes both features...... and allows the co-existence of long memory in volatility and short memory in returns. We extend this model to allow the financial parameters governing the volatility-in-mean effect and the leverage effect to change during financial crises. An application to the daily U.S. stock index return series from 1926...

  18. Emerging interdependence between stock values during financial crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocchi, Jacopo; Tsui, Enoch Yan Lok; Saad, David

    2017-01-01

    To identify emerging interdependencies between traded stocks we investigate the behavior of the stocks of FTSE 100 companies in the period 2000-2015, by looking at daily stock values. Exploiting the power of information theoretical measures to extract direct influences between multiple time series, we compute the information flow across stock values to identify several different regimes. While small information flows is detected in most of the period, a dramatically different situation occurs in the proximity of global financial crises, where stock values exhibit strong and substantial interdependence for a prolonged period. This behavior is consistent with what one would generally expect from a complex system near criticality in physical systems, showing the long lasting effects of crashes on stock markets.

  19. How Large is the Stock Component of Human Capital?

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Huggett; Greg Kaplan

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the value of an individual’s human capital and the associated return on human capital using U.S. data on male earnings and financial asset returns. We find that (1) the value of human capital is far below the value implied by discounting earnings at the risk-free rate and (2) the stock component of the value of human capital is smaller than the bond component at all ages. The stock component averages less than 35 percent of the value of human capital at each age.

  20. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  1. Global stock market in 1990-s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moshenskyi S.Z.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The 1990s became a period of long-term recovery, the main driving force of which was the high-tech companies of the so-called «new economy», mainly associated with information technology and Internet at the global stock market. Such innovations have led to unrealistic expectations of the profitability of new companies from the sale of goods and services on the Internet. This became a prerequisite for a speculative boom in equity markets in developed financial systems. The boom intensified the mass privatization of state-owned enterprises in UK, Germany, France and some other countries. The capitalization of the global stock market increased more than ten times although the world GDP grew only 2.5 times during two decades, from 1980 to 2000. Though the stock market is the source of capital only in the countries with the Anglo-American model of financial markets (for countries of continental Europe and Japan such sources are bank loans, stock markets increased in all countries with developed financial systems. The systematic analysis of such key indicators as market capitalization and liquidity is required for an objective assessment of such rise in stock markets. But statistical information at stock markets is often not systematized and fragmentary. Therefore, the author (based on the official statistics of such international financial organizations as the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and the World Federation of Exchanges has calculated and systematically analyzed capitalization and liquidity as the main indicators of the stock market for the largest countries with developed financial systems (USA, Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan. The paper displays the differences in the mechanisms of attraction of capital determined by the different models of financial markets (decentralized Anglo-American and centralized European as well as the features of the composition of the main investors in the world stock markets.

  2. Company Fundamentals and Returns in the Nigerian Stock Market ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The result shows that all the coefficients have positive signs in line with a priori determination. However, only the coefficient of BMV (book to market value) passes the significance test at the 1 percent level. The coefficient of LEV manages to pass the test at the 10 percent level, while all the other coefficients firm size (SIZE), ...

  3. the mauritius stock exchange: sectoral analysis, risk and return

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cistvr

    Companies listed on the exchange are classified into seven main sectors of the economy which are namely, Banks & Insurance, Industry, Investments, Sugar,. Commerce, Leisure & Hotels and Transport. The rate of corporate tax paid by listed companies is 25 per cent instead of the normal rate of 35 per cent. In the case of ...

  4. Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns Reactions: Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SIPHAMBE, H.K. (PROF.)

    and was converted from US$ to Botswana pula using the exchange rates obtained from the same source. Real GDP, Inflation (π), the nominal rand/pula exchange rate (exch) and the 91day Bank of Botswana Certificates rate (BoBCsr) were obtained from Bank of Botswana Annual Bulletins. The Domestic Companies Index ...

  5. Modelling conditional heteroskedasticity in JSE stock returns using ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In stage two we filter the residuals from the ARMA-GARCH model. We then fi t a Generalised Pareto Distribution (GPD) to the upper tail of the residual series, and refer to this hybrid as the ARMA-GARCH-GPD model. The threshold is estimated using a Pareto quantile plot. Empirical results show that the Weibull class of ...

  6. the mauritius stock exchange: sectoral analysis, risk and return

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cistvr

    done by an order-driven system. Orders by clients can be “at best”, “limit” or “stop” orders. The brokerage fee claimed by stockbroking companies varies from 0.50 to. 0.75 per cent. A Central Depository and Settlement (CDS) system is operational since January 1997 to speed up share transfer and settlement operations. The.

  7. Pengaruh Return on Assets dan Debt to Equity Ratio terhadap Harga Saham pada Institusi Finansial di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Rani Ramdhani

    2013-01-01

    This study aims to determine the effect of Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio of Stock Price on Financial Institutions in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study used secondary data, with samples 2 financial companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange during the study period 2004-2010. Independent variables in this study are Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio. This study used purposive sampling technique. The method of data analysis used classical assumption test, hypothesis test, multip...

  8. Análise da relação risco e retorno em carteiras compostas por índices de bolsa de valores de países desenvolvidos e de países emergentes integrantes do bloco econômico BRIC Analysis of the relationship between risk and return in portfolios comprising stock exchange indexes from developed and emerging countries members of BRICs economic bloc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Odálio dos Santos

    2010-12-01

    survey was based on two periods: 1996 to 2000, when the opening of important emergent markets is intensified, and from 2003 to 2007 to compare the results. To analyze the contribution of international diversification, we calculated the risk and return of four portfolios: 1. stock market indexes of developed countries (UK, USA and Japan and the BRIC countries, 2. stock market indexes from the U.S. and the BRIC countries, 3. stock market indexes of BRIC countries, and 4. stock market indexes of developed countries. The empirical results suggest that investors would get the best results if they chose portfolios composed of stock market indexes of the United States and the BRIC countries. The addition of these assets in the portfolio would generate lower rates of covariance, i.e., lower risk exposure per unit of return. Moreover, although increasing the level of globalization of markets in the latest survey period (2003-2007 increased, there was a need for greater integration between the economies of selected countries (NGR <0.50.

  9. An Efficient Stock Recommendation Model Based on Big Order Net Inflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yujun

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In general, the stock trend is mainly driven by the big order transactions. Believing that the stock rise with a large volume is closely associated with the big order net inflow, we propose an efficient stock recommendation model based on big order net inflow in the paper. In order to compute the big order net inflow of stock, we use the M/G/1 queue system to measure all tick-by-tick transaction data. Based on an indicator of the big order net inflow of stock, we select some stocks with the higher value of the net inflow to constitute the prerecommended stock set for the target investor user. In order to recommend some stocks with which this style is familiar them to the target users, we divide lots of investors into several categories using fuzzy clustering method and we should do our best to choose stocks from the stock set once operated by those investors who are in the same category with the target user. The experiment results show that the recommended stocks have better gains during the several days after the recommended stock day and the proposed model can provide reliable investment guidance for the target investors and let them get more stock returns.

  10. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huai-Long Shi

    Full Text Available This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

  11. Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.

  12. Asset Pricing Model and the Liquidity Effect: Empirical Evidence in the Brazilian Stock Market

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Otávio Ribeiro de Medeiros; Márcio André Veras Machado

    2011-01-01

    .... As a second goal, we include liquidity as an extra risk factor in asset pricing models and test whether this factor is priced and whether stock returns were explained not only by systematic risk...

  13. Effects of Common Factors on Dynamics of Stocks Traded by Investors with Limited Information Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songtao Wu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available An artificial stock market with agent-based model is built to investigate effects of different information characteristics of common factors on the dynamics stock returns. Investors with limited information capacity update their beliefs based on the information they have obtained and processed and optimize portfolios based on beliefs. We find that with changing of concerned information characteristics the uncertainty of stock price returns rises and is higher than the uncertainty of intrinsic value returns. However, this increase is constrained by the limited information capacity of investors. At the same time, we also find that dependence between returns of stock prices also increased with the changing information environment. The uncertainty and dependency pertaining to prices show a positive relationship. However, the positive relationship is weakened when taking into account the features of intrinsic values, based on which prices are generated.

  14. Kinerja Keuangan Berbasis Penciptaan Nilai, Faktor Makroekonomi dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Return Saham Sektor Pertanian

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arif Kurniadi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock return is the main indicator of performance for investors in assessing the effectiveness of the invested capital. The volatility of stock price index of the agricultural sector during 2005 - 2011 has resulted in an annualized return was the second-lowest sector after mining sector. The use of value creation-based performance analysis (EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin can help companies create corporate value highly associated with stock returns. In addition, external factors may also affect stock returns. The purposes of this study are: (1 to analyze the financial performance of companies in the agricultural sector by using EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin, (2 to analyze the influence of EVA, MVA, Q-Tobin and macroeconomic factors (inflation and exchange rates on stock returns agricultural sector, and (3 to develop managerial implications of the results of analyzes performed. Data was collected from eight companies agricultural sector, which listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange before 2005. Descriptive analysis is used to analyze EVA, MVA, and Q-Tobin for each company and data panel is used to find out influence of EVA, MVA, Q-Tobin, and macroeconomic factors on stock returns. The study showed that most companies gained a negative EVA. Tthe MVA analysis showed that most companies gained more positive MVA. The Q-Tobin result shows that most companies gained value q<1. Based on REM analysis, only found MVARET and Q-TobinRET have significant effect on stock returns. EVARET, inflation, an exchange rate, and dummy crisis have insignificant effect on stock returns.

  15. Index Prediction in Tehran Stock Exchange Using Hybrid Model of Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Farzad Karimi; Mohsen Dastgir; Monireh Shariati

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, investment in the bource organizes the important part of country economy. So the prediction of stocks index is very important for stockholders to earn the highest return from their investment. The changes of stock market influence by several factors such as political, economical and social factors and maybe, using the classic methods for stock market prediction result in exact results. Since, the intelligent method have this capability that consider the complex effects of above fact...

  16. Testing Stock Market Efficiency Using Historical Trading Data and Machine Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Purmonen, Sami; Griffin, Paul

    2015-01-01

    Stock forecasting is a problem that is important in finance because it aids investors in financial decision making. According to the efficient market hypothesis stock markets are efficient in such a way that it's impossible to gain excess returns over the market by making decisions based on current available information. This paper evaluates the usage of machine learning algorithms and historical trading data for stock price prediction combined with investment strategies in order to test the ...

  17. The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    2007-01-01

    Recent empirical evidence demonstrates the presence of an important long memory component in realized asset return volatility. We specify and estimate multivariate models for the joint dynamics of stock returns and volatility that allow for long memory in volatility without imposing this property...... on returns. Asset pricing theory imposes testable cross-equation restrictions on the system that are not rejected in our preferred specifications, which include a strong financial leverage effect. We show that the impact of volatility shocks on stock prices is small and short-lived, in spite of a positive...... risk-return trade-off and long memory in volatility....

  18. Robust portfolio choice with ambiguity and learning about return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Linda Sandris; Branger, Nicole; Munk, Claus

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the optimal stock-bond portfolio under both learning and ambiguity aversion. Stock returns are predictable by an observable and an unobservable predictor, and the investor has to learn about the latter. Furthermore, the investor is ambiguity-averse and has a preference for investment...... strategies that are robust to model misspecifications. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal robust investment strategy. We find that both learning and ambiguity aversion impact the level and structure of the optimal stock investment. Suboptimal strategies resulting either from not learning...

  19. Robust Portfolio Choice with Ambiguity and Learning About Return Predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Branger, Nicole; Larsen, Linda Sandris; Munk, Claus

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the optimal stock-bond portfolio under both learning and ambiguity aversion. Stock returns are predictable by an observable and an unobservable predictor, and the investor has to learn about the latter. Furthermore, the investor is ambiguity-averse and has a preference for investment...... strategies that are robust to model misspecifications. We derive a closed-form solution for the optimal robust investment strategy. We find that both learning and ambiguity aversion impact the level and structure of the optimal stock investment. Suboptimal strategies resulting either from not learning...

  20. Influence of product return lead-time on inventory control

    OpenAIRE

    Zerhouni, Mohamed Hichem; Gayon, Jean-Philippe; Frein, Yannick

    2009-01-01

    International audience; We consider a production-inventory system with capacity constraint and item returns correlated to demand. The system is modelled by an M/M/1 make-to-stock queue with lost sales. A satisfied demand incurs an item return with a certain probability, after an exponentially distributed return lead-time. We distinguish two cases: When the number of items to be returned is observable and when it is not observable. For the first case, we partially characterize the optimal policy...

  1. Day-of-the-Week and Month-of-the-Year Effect on the Kenyan Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to determine if daily and monthly seasonal anomalies do exist in the Kenyan stock market. Data on prices and adjusted returns derived from the NSE 20 index were analysed using regression analysis to identify the behaviour of stock investors in Kenya during 1980-2006. Results indicate that

  2. Mathematical analysis and numerical methods for a PDE model of a stock loan pricing problem

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Pascucci; M. Suarez-Taboada; C. Vazquez

    2013-01-01

    htmlabstract In this paper the mathematical analysis of a model for pricing stock loan contracts, when the accumulative dividend yield associated to the stock is returned by the lender to the borrower on redemption, is carried out. More precisely, the model is formulated in terms of an obstacle

  3. Reduce the risk of stock trading by using technical analysis in iran's ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    One of the basic criteria for evaluating the performance of a stock portfolio is taking into account the return on investment with the rate of their risk. In this research, efficiency of 50 active companies of Tehran Stock Exchangeevaluated by moving average method with their appropriate risk. In measuring mentioned strategic ...

  4. Estimating betas in thinner markets: "the case of the Athens Stock Exchange"

    OpenAIRE

    Λαμπούσης, Αθανάσιος Ι.

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of the return interval on the beta estimate known as the “interval effect” which causes securities that are thinly traded to give biased OLS beta estimates. The present study covers a 5-year period, from January 2002 through to December 2006, using three different return intervals: daily, weekly and monthly data for 60 continuously listed thinly-traded stocks on the main market of the Athens Stock Exchange. Results generally support findings fr...

  5. Dividend policy as a signaling mechanism under different market conditions: Evidence from the Casablanca Stock Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farooq, Omar; Saoud, Siham; Agnaou, Samir

    2012-01-01

    a significantly negative relationship between dividend payout ratio and stock price volatility during the stable growth period. We also show a significantly positive relationship between dividend payout ratio and stock returns during the same period. However, this relationship turns insignificant during the high...... growth period. One of the reasons for our results may be that investors pay lesser attention to the signaling value of dividends during the periods when they are earning higher returns on their investments....

  6. Trading in Target Stocks Before Takeover Announcements: An Analysis of Stock and Option Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Marcus Clements; Harminder Singh; Antonie Van Eekelen

    2007-01-01

    In this study we examine both informed trading and contraire trading preceding takeover announcements on US target firms. Our findings suggest that both informed trading and contraire trading exists within the period preceding takeover announcements on both the stock and option markets as evident through abnormal returns and trading volumes. In regard to contraire trading, this study investigates possible explanations for its existence including liquidity clustering, falsely informed trading ...

  7. Volatility return intervals analysis of the Japanese market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, W.-S.; Wang, F. Z.; Havlin, S.; Kaizoji, T.; Moon, H.-T.; Stanley, H. E.

    2008-03-01

    We investigate scaling and memory effects in return intervals between price volatilities above a certain threshold q for the Japanese stock market using daily and intraday data sets. We find that the distribution of return intervals can be approximated by a scaling function that depends only on the ratio between the return interval τ and its mean . We also find memory effects such that a large (or small) return interval follows a large (or small) interval by investigating the conditional distribution and mean return interval. The results are similar to previous studies of other markets and indicate that similar statistical features appear in different financial markets. We also compare our results between the period before and after the big crash at the end of 1989. We find that scaling and memory effects of the return intervals show similar features although the statistical properties of the returns are different.

  8. DLA Forward Stocking

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Flory, John

    2007-01-01

    .... This study evaluates the feasibility of forward stocking in terms of DoD savings. The performance of DLA's criteria is evaluated and a new criteria using a cost and demand threshold is proposed...

  9. Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

    2014-09-01

    Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

  10. Trading network predicts stock price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

    2014-01-16

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

  11. Fractal profit landscape of the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grönlund, Andreas; Yi, Il Gu; Kim, Beom Jun

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the structure of the profit landscape obtained from the most basic, fluctuation based, trading strategy applied for the daily stock price data. The strategy is parameterized by only two variables, p and q Stocks are sold and bought if the log return is bigger than p and less than -q, respectively. Repetition of this simple strategy for a long time gives the profit defined in the underlying two-dimensional parameter space of p and q. It is revealed that the local maxima in the profit landscape are spread in the form of a fractal structure. The fractal structure implies that successful strategies are not localized to any region of the profit landscape and are neither spaced evenly throughout the profit landscape, which makes the optimization notoriously hard and hypersensitive for partial or limited information. The concrete implication of this property is demonstrated by showing that optimization of one stock for future values or other stocks renders worse profit than a strategy that ignores fluctuations, i.e., a long-term buy-and-hold strategy.

  12. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  13. Coupling detrended fluctuation analysis of Asian stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qizhen; Zhu, Yingming; Yang, Liansheng; Mul, Remco A. H.

    2017-04-01

    This paper uses the coupling detrended fluctuation analysis (CDFA) method to investigate the multifractal characteristics of four Asian stock markets using three stock indices: stock price returns, trading volumes and the composite index. The results show that coupled correlations exist among the four stock markets and the coupled correlations have multifractal characteristics. We then use the chi square (χ2) test to identify the sources of multifractality. For the different stock indices, the contributions of a single series to multifractality are different. In other words, the contributions of each country to coupled correlations are different. The comparative analysis shows that the research on the combine effect of stock price returns and trading volumes may be more comprehensive than on an individual index. By comparing the strength of multifractality for original data with the residual errors of the vector autoregression (VAR) model, we find that the VAR model could not be used to describe the dynamics of the coupled correlations among four financial time series.

  14. ANALISIS REAKSI PASAR MODAL TERHADAP PENGUMUMAN RIGHT ISSUE DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA (BEJ (PENGAMATAN TERHADAP RETURN, ABNORMAL RETURN, SECURITY RETURN VARIABILITY DAN TRADING VOLUME ACTIVITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LISTIANA SRI MULATSIH

    2012-05-01

    condition in Indonesia about semi strong form efficiency in which market will react against an information. If the right issue contains information that the market react at the moment the right issue is published. The aim of the research is to find out whether the stock exchange react to the right issue by observing the return, abnormal return, security return variability and trading volume activity at the time, before, and after of the publication. The method of the research is using event study with market adjusted model approach. The research sampling are the 24 corporate that registered in BEJ in 1999. Statistical test on return, abnormal return, security return variability and trading volume activity use t-test. The result of the research shows the significant difference at the time and before the return is issued because the right issue has been heard before. There is no significant difference found in abnormal return and security return variability. However, the trading volume activity shows the difference for the period of observation before, at the time, and after publication of the right issue. It brings the conclusion that the stock exchange doesn’t react against the publication of the right issue so BEJ has not been categorized yet into the semi strong form..   Keywords: stock market, right issue, stock return, abnormal return, security return variability, trading volume.

  15. Changing recruitment capacity in global fish stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britten, Gregory L.; Dowd, Michael; Worm, Boris

    2016-01-01

    Marine fish and invertebrates are shifting their regional and global distributions in response to climate change, but it is unclear whether their productivity is being affected as well. Here we tested for time-varying trends in biological productivity parameters across 262 fish stocks of 127 species in 39 large marine ecosystems and high-seas areas (hereafter LMEs). This global meta-analysis revealed widespread changes in the relationship between spawning stock size and the production of juvenile offspring (recruitment), suggesting fundamental biological change in fish stock productivity at early life stages. Across regions, we estimate that average recruitment capacity has declined at a rate approximately equal to 3% of the historical maximum per decade. However, we observed large variability among stocks and regions; for example, highly negative trends in the North Atlantic contrast with more neutral patterns in the North Pacific. The extent of biological change in each LME was significantly related to observed changes in phytoplankton chlorophyll concentration and the intensity of historical overfishing in that ecosystem. We conclude that both environmental changes and chronic overfishing have already affected the productive capacity of many stocks at the recruitment stage of the life cycle. These results provide a baseline for ecosystem-based fisheries management and may help adjust expectations for future food production from the oceans. PMID:26668368

  16. Otolith shape analysis as a tool for stock identification of the southern blue whiting, Micromesistius australis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Leguá

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The southern blue whiting, Micromesistius australis (Norman, 1937, is an important demersal resource associated with the slope and continental shelf of southern Chile, Argentina and the Malvinas/Falkland Islands. Recent studies have reported schools of adult fish from Atlantic waters migrating along the southern Chilean coast in mid-winter, moving northwards to spawn in August (47°-51°S, and then returning to Atlantic waters, presumably to feed. The migratory pattern suggests the presence of one or more stock units associated with the South American coast. In the present study, "otolith morphometry" is used to determine the stock structure of M. australis based on applications of basic size descriptors (SDs (area, perimeter and otolith size, shape indices (SIs (circularity, squareness, shape factor, roundness, ellipticity, and normalised elliptical Fourier descriptors (NEFDs. Samples were collected during the winter and spring of 2010, during the reproductive period, in the economic zone of southern Chile (36°-57°S, in the Pacific Ocean and around the Falkland Islands economic zone (50°-52°S in the Atlantic Ocean. Analyses were conducted to include the effects of size, sex and age. A stepwise canonical discriminant analysis showed that fish were successfully discriminated with SDs, SIs and NEFDs. In this analysis, 86.4% and 70.1% of the fish were correctly classified as belonging to the Atlantic and Pacific stocks, respectively. A multivariate analysis of variance showed that the mean values of the NEFDs, SDs, and SIs did not vary significantly between sexes within areas (P > 0.05, but varied significantly between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans (P < 0.05. These results highlighted that otolith shape analysis can be a useful tool to evaluate the potential level of mixing in feeding areas where both stocks, the Pacific and Atlantic units, are expected to co-occur.

  17. Statistical Analysis Of The Share Price Movement Of Stocks ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study was aimed at providing the investor with timing evidence in decisions with regards to the purchase of and sale of equities that will lead towards higher annual returns from his stock investment as well as to understand the causes and pattern of shares price movements as it affects investment decisions in the ...

  18. The Mauritius stock exchange: An assessment | Bundoo | University ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the Stock Exchange of Mauritius: the trading mechanism, the trading progress of the exchange and the regulatory framework. The author finds that low levels of trading activity and high market concentration are severely hampering the development of the exchange. It is also found that returns are serially correlated in the ...

  19. Stocks for the long run? : Evidence from emerging markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierdijk, Laura; Umar, Zaghum

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the myopic (single-period) and intertemporal hedging (long-run) demand for stocks in 20 growth-leading emerging market economies during the 1999-2012 period. We consider two types of investors: a domestic investor who invests in emerging-market assets only (with returns in local

  20. How to obtain high returns with lower volatility in emerging markets?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nipun Agarwal

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Emerging markets equity indexes are usually seen as high return with a high degree of volatility associated with them. However, this should not be the case, if you choose high-quality firms that have increasing returns and lower volatility. The intent of this paper is to introduce the risk weighted alpha (RWA indexation method that helps identify stocks that have stable increasing returns with lower volatility. In order to review this method in the context of emerging markets scenario, this paper takes the example of the Sensex index listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE that comprises India’s top 30 stocks by market capitalisation. Results show that some stocks like Hindustan Lever do show increasing returns and lower volatility. The RWA Sensex index outperforms the BSE Sensex index, while still maintaining a beta that is the same as that in the BSE Sensex index.

  1. Investment characteristics, stock characteristics and portfolio diversification of finance professionals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Tariqul Islam Khan

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This study estimates if Malaysian finance professionals' investment characteristics and stock characteristics' preferences affect their portfolio diversification, and whether the effects of these predictors vary across professionals' gender, income and experience. Employing a survey and ordinal regression models, the findings demonstrate that investment characteristics such as active trading, usage of internet and telephone, and saving for retirement objective are likely to improve diversification, whereas diversification worsens with the spending less time on researching investment. With respect to stock's characteristics, trading volume and return on asset are related to better diversification, whereas profit margin and return on equity are related to least diversification. The predictors are found to vary across professionals' gender, income and experience. The results suggest that finance professionals need to consider spending more time on researching investment and stock's characteristics in portfolio composition.

  2. Stock markets are not what we think they are: the key roles of cross-ownership and corporate treasury stock

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehner, Bertrand M.

    2005-03-01

    We describe, document and statistically test three mechanisms by which corporations can influence or even control stock prices: (i) Parent and holding companies wield control over other publicly traded companies. (ii) Through clever management of treasury stock based on buyback programs and stock issuance, stock price fluctuations can be amplified or curbed. The shock of September 11, 2001 is used to test this effect. (iii) Finally, historical evidence shows that there is a close interdependence between the level of stock prices on the one hand and merger and acquisition activity on the other hand: on average, a 10% increase in the number of mergers brings about a 3% increase in the overall level of stock prices. If one adds up buybacks, initial public offerings and takeover transactions, all of which depend upon strategic decisions taken by corporate management, they represent on average 7.2% of the trade on the New York Stock Exchange over the period 1987-2003 (as much as 12% in specific years such as 1988). This perspective, in which the Boards of Directors of major companies “shepherd” the market, offers a natural interpretation of the so-called “herd behavior” observed in stock markets. The traditional view holds that, by driving profit expectations, corporations have an indirect role in shaping the market. In this paper, we suggest that over the last decades they became more and more the direct moving force of stock markets.

  3. Behavioural finance perspectives on Malaysian stock market efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jasman Tuyon

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides historical, theoretical, and empirical syntheses in understanding the rationality of investors, stock prices, and stock market efficiency behaviour in the theoretical lenses of behavioural finance paradigm. The inquiry is guided by multidisciplinary behavioural-related theories. The analyses employed a long span of Bursa Malaysia stock market data from 1977 to 2014 along the different phases of economic development and market states. The tests confirmed the presence of asymmetric dynamic behaviour of prices predictability as well as risk and return relationships across different market states, risk states and quantiles data segments. The efficiency tests show trends of an adaptive pattern of weak market efficiency across various economic phases and market states. Collectively, these evidences lend support to bounded-adaptive rational of investors' behaviour, dynamic stock price behaviour, and accordingly forming bounded-adaptive market efficiency.

  4. What the 2008 stock market crash means for retirement security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butrica, Barbara A; Smith, Karen E; Toder, Eric J

    2010-10-01

    The 2008 stock market crash raises concerns about retirement security, especially since the increased prevalence of 401(k) and similar retirement saving plans means that more Americans are now stakeholders in the equity market than in the past. Using a dynamic microsimulation model, this paper explores the ability of alternate future stock market scenarios to restore retirement assets. The authors find that those near retirement could fare the worst because they have no time to recoup their losses. Mid-career workers could fare better because they have more time to rebuild their wealth. They may even gain income if they buy stocks at low prices and get above-average rates of return. High-income groups will be the most affected because they are most likely to have financial assets and to be invested in the stock market.

  5. Managing an Assemble-to-Order System with Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Gregory A. DeCroix; Jing-Sheng Song; Paul H. Zipkin

    2009-01-01

    We consider a multiproduct assemble-to-order (ATO) system, in which inventory is kept only at the component level and the finished products are assembled in response to customer demands. In addition to stochastic demand for finished products, the system experiences stochastic returns of subsets of components, which can then be used to satisfy subsequent demands. The system is managed over an infinite horizon using a component-level base-stock policy. We identify several ways in which returns ...

  6. Value Investing in the Stock Market of Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerardo “Gerry” Alfonso Perez

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Value investment and growth investment have attracted a large amount of research in recent decades, but most of this research focuses on the U.S. and Europe. This article covers the Thai stock market which has very different characteristics compared to western markets and even South East Asian countries such as Indonesia or Malaysia. Among South East Asian countries, Thailand has one of the most dynamic capital markets. In order to see if some well-known trends in other markets exist in Thailand the performance of value and growth stocks in the Thai market were analyzed for a period of 17 years using existing style indexes (MSCI as well as creating portfolios using individual stocks. For this entire period, when using the indexes, returns are statistically significant superior for value stocks compared to growth stocks. However, when analyzing the performance of the market in any given calendar year from 1999 to 2016, the results are much more mixed with in fact growth stocks outperforming in several of those years. Interestingly, when building portfolios using criteria such as low P/E or low P/B the results are not statistically different. Suggesting perhaps that the classification into value or growth stocks is more complex than it would appear. One of the common assumptions of value investing is that those stocks outperform over long periods of time. It might well be that in the Thai case one year is not a long enough period for value stocks to outperform. While there have been some clear efforts over recent years to modernize the stock market of Thailand, it remains relatively underdeveloped, particularly when compared to markets such as the U.S. Hence, its behavior regarding value versus growth investment might be rather different.

  7. Pengaruh Return on Assets dan Debt to Equity Ratio terhadap Harga Saham pada Institusi Finansial di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rani Ramdhani

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to determine the effect of Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio of Stock Price on Financial Institutions in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study used secondary data, with samples 2 financial companies in Indonesia Stock Exchange during the study period 2004-2010. Independent variables in this study are Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio. This study used purposive sampling technique. The method of data analysis used classical assumption test, hypothesis test, multiple regression analysis, the F test and t test. Based on results of the study, Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio have no significant effect on stock price. Meanwhile, the F test result shows that Return on Assets and Debt to Equity Ratio jointly have no effect on stock price.

  8. PENGARUH KINERJA BERBASIS PENCIPTAAN NILAI DAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM INDUSTRI PAKAN TERNAK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evi Karmilah

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The creation of value-based performance measurement can be an alternative in measuring the company's financial performance. Results can be used as indicators of assessments by investors, and these indicators can influence the stock returns. Besides, macroeconomic variables also affect stock returns. This study aimed to analyze the financial performance of companies in the process of creation of value-added with EVA, MVA, and Tobin's Q approach. Impacts of these performance measurements and macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, interest rates, and inflation on stock returns of the subsector animal feed industry were studied. Descriptive analysis was applied in analyzing the company's financial performance. The impacts of the company financial performance and macroeconomic variables were assessed by using panel data regression analysis. The results related to the company's performance showed that 1 EVA performance dominantly obtained a positive EVA value; 2 MVA performance predominantly produced a positive MVA value in 3 companies and a negative MVA value in the other company; 3 Tobin’s Q performance predominantly generated a value of Q>1 in 2 companies and a value of Q<1 in the other 2 companies. The results of the panel data regression analysis concluded the independent variables influencing the stock return were the performance variables while the macroeconomic variables had no effects on stock return.Keywords: macroeconomic variables, panel data regression, stock return, subsector of animal feed, value-based performance

  9. Contraste empírico del CAPM en el mercado accionario chileno Empirical test of the CAPM in the Chilean stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A Díaz Contreras

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available El modelo de valoración de activos de capital (Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM es uno de los modelos más utilizados en la práctica para determinar el premio por riesgo de un activo individual o cartera. El presente trabajo realiza un contraste empírico del CAPM en el mercado accionario chileno, empleando las metodologías de serie temporal y de eficiencia media-varianza, basada en la estimación por el método generalizado de momentos (MGM. El contraste se llevó a cabo usando rentabilidades mensuales de títulos individuales para el periodo 1997-2007 y usando una cartera de igual ponderación como proxy para la cartera de mercado. Los resultados de todas las metodologías empleadas muestran que el CAPM explica satisfactoriamente el corte transversal de retornos esperados en Chile.The capital asset pricing model (CAPM is one of the most used models in practice to determine the risk premium of an individual asset or portfolio. This paper tests the CAPM in the Chilean stock market using the time series methodology and the generalized method of moments to test mean-variance efficiency. This work uses monthly returns of individual stocks between 1997 and 2007 and considers an equally weighted portfolio as a proxy for the market portfolio. The results show that the CAPM explains successfully the cross section of expected stock returns in Chile.

  10. Does stock price synchronicity effect information content of reported earnings? Evidence from the MENA region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Farooq

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the effect of stock price synchronicity on the value relevance of reported earnings in the MENA region during the period between 2009 and 2013. Our results show that the information content of reported earnings increases with increase in stock price synchronicity. We document higher impact of earnings on returns for firms with higher stock price synchronicity. We argue that firms with high synchronicity have better information environment. As a result, these firms disclose information that is of high quality. We also show that information conveyed through stock price synchronicity is more important than information conveyed through traditional governance mechanisms

  11. STOCK SPLIT DAN LIKUIDITAS SAHAM DI BEI: PENGUJIAN MENGGUNAKAN HIPOTESIS LIKUIDITAS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignatius Roni Setyawan

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to re-examine the effectiveness of liquidity hypothesis in stock split. Liquidity hypothesis in stock split is defined as the returning stock price to the optimal trading level. Based on Ekaputra and Putri (2006, this study consists of two analysis methods such as: 1 Paired t-test among return volatility and liquidity during stock split 2 OLS-test focuses on the consistency of the model of Ekaputra and Putri (2006 and in line with Kim et al. (2007, this research includes Amihud’s Illiquidity as an alternative proxy of liquidity in stock split in addition to relative spread. According to paired t-test, this study finds return volatility decreases after stock split and it is similar to liquidity proxies both relative spread and Amihud’s Illiquidity. In OLS-test, the results indicate that only the effect of trading volume toward liquidity proxies (i.e., relative spread and Amihud’s Illiquidity has the appropriate signs with the alternative hypothesis. Generally, this research concludes that stock liquidity increases after stock split and relative spread is a better liquidity proxy than Amihud’s Illiquidity.

  12. Static and dynamic factors in an information-based multi-asset artificial stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponta, Linda; Pastore, Stefano; Cincotti, Silvano

    2018-02-01

    An information-based multi-asset artificial stock market characterized by different types of stocks and populated by heterogeneous agents is presented. In the market, agents trade risky assets in exchange for cash. Beside the amount of cash and of stocks owned, each agent is characterized by sentiments and agents share their sentiments by means of interactions that are determined by sparsely connected networks. A central market maker (clearing house mechanism) determines the price processes for each stock at the intersection of the demand and the supply curves. Single stock price processes exhibit volatility clustering and fat-tailed distribution of returns whereas multivariate price process exhibits both static and dynamic stylized facts, i.e., the presence of static factors and common trends. Static factors are studied making reference to the cross-correlation of returns of different stocks. The common trends are investigated considering the variance-covariance matrix of prices. Results point out that the probability distribution of eigenvalues of the cross-correlation matrix of returns shows the presence of sectors, similar to those observed on real empirical data. As regarding the dynamic factors, the variance-covariance matrix of prices point out a limited number of assets prices series that are independent integrated processes, in close agreement with the empirical evidence of asset price time series of real stock markets. These results remarks the crucial dependence of statistical properties of multi-assets stock market on the agents' interaction structure.

  13. On The Relationship between Illiquidity, Aggregate Market Return ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study investigated the relationship between daily returns and illiquidity of the NIFTY Index (one of the broad based market indices of the National Stock Exchange of India). In this paper, illiquidity was used as an exogenous variable in the EGARCH (1, 1) framework. The empirical results clearly indicate the presence of ...

  14. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents an analysis of the impact of monetary policy on financial asset returns, with particular reference to stocks. The minimum discount rate and an index based on the direction of change in discount rate were used as monetary policy proxies. The analysis was done using a multi-association model of which ...

  15. A Multivariate Nonparametric Test for Return and Volatility Timing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W.A. Marquering (Wessel); M.J.C.M. Verbeek (Marno)

    2004-01-01

    textabstractThis paper develops a novel approach to simultaneously test for market timing in stock index returns and volatility. The tests are based on the estimation of a system of regression equations with indicator variables and provide detailed information about the statistical significance of

  16. The Volatility Effect: Lower Risk without Lower Return

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.C. Blitz (David); P. van Vliet (Pim)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe present empirical evidence that stocks with low volatility earn high risk-adjusted returns. The annual alpha spread of global low versus high volatility decile portfolios amounts to 12% over the 1986-2006 period. We also observe this volatility effect within the US, European and

  17. Volatility modeling of asset returns | Babayemi | International Journal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research was carried out using the daily close share price of Nestle Nigeria Plc to identify and model its volatility of returns in the Nigerian Stock Exchange Market. The result of the study showed that basic Generalized Conditionally Heteroskedastic Model (GARCH (1,1)) model (with Gaussian Error Assumptions) best ...

  18. The value of winning : endorsement returns in individual sports

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gerritsen, Dirk F.; van Rheenen, Saskia

    Using the results of 1068 different golf, tennis, and track and field (in particular: running) events, this paper examines the relation between athlete performance and stock returns of firms endorsed by athletes. We find that a tournament victory is associated with significant and positive

  19. The value of winning: endorsement returns in individual sports

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    D.F. Gerritsen (Dirk F.); van Rheenen, S. (Saskia)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractUsing the results of 1068 different golf, tennis, and track and field (in particular: running) events, this paper examines the relation between athlete performance and stock returns of firms endorsed by athletes. We find that a tournament victory is associated with significant and

  20. THE GREGARIOUS BEHAVIOR OF INVESTORS FROM BALTIC STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pece Andreea Maria

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this research is to investigate market participants’ gregarious behaviour in Baltic stock markets, namely Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia during the period January 2003-December 2013. The herding behaviour derives from the investors’ irrationality, who trade financial assets based on their positive expectations about prices future growth, generating manias among other market participants, thus ignoring the real return rates and the risk levels of their investments.The investors’ irrational behaviour is influenced by actions, feelings and impulses that are intertwined: mimicry, fear, trust, greed, optimism, pessimism, euphoria, panic. These features highlight an erroneous perception of investors in point of unsustained increase in prices, which has been generated by the stock prices deviations from their fundamental value.Under these premises, optimism, overreaction and speculative bubbles are appearing on the market and may constitute triggering factors of a financial crash.The probability of the occurrence of the speculative bubbles and financial crashes is influenced by the continuous entry on the market of new investors and less informed participants, which often act based on impulse, following a benchmark, without considering their own analysis and information that they hold. The existence of a “collective behaviour” of the investors, which is manifested by their tendency to imitate other market participants actions and to “follow the herd”, so ignoring their own beliefs, may increase market sensitivity to shocks and the probability of the occurrence of the systemic risk.In order to identify the investors’ herding behaviour, I have applied an adjusted CSSD model proposed by (Yao, Ma, Peng He, 2014, which implies the inclusion of two additional variables, the first one, to reduce the effect of multicollinearity and a second one, a lag term of the dependent variable, in order to improve the power of the

  1. Customer satisfaction as a buffer against sentimental stock-price corrections

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Merrin, R.P.; Hoffmann, A.O.I.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Previous research has shown that customer satisfaction is a market-based asset that can contribute to a firm’s value by increasing its stock-market returns, while simultaneously reducing the riskiness of these returns. This study contributes to the growing literature on the

  2. Dominating clasp of the financial sector revealed by partial correlation analysis of the stock market.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dror Y Kenett

    Full Text Available What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.

  3. Dominating clasp of the financial sector revealed by partial correlation analysis of the stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenett, Dror Y; Tumminello, Michele; Madi, Asaf; Gur-Gershgoren, Gitit; Mantegna, Rosario N; Ben-Jacob, Eshel

    2010-12-20

    What are the dominant stocks which drive the correlations present among stocks traded in a stock market? Can a correlation analysis provide an answer to this question? In the past, correlation based networks have been proposed as a tool to uncover the underlying backbone of the market. Correlation based networks represent the stocks and their relationships, which are then investigated using different network theory methodologies. Here we introduce a new concept to tackle the above question--the partial correlation network. Partial correlation is a measure of how the correlation between two variables, e.g., stock returns, is affected by a third variable. By using it we define a proxy of stock influence, which is then used to construct partial correlation networks. The empirical part of this study is performed on a specific financial system, namely the set of 300 highly capitalized stocks traded at the New York Stock Exchange, in the time period 2001-2003. By constructing the partial correlation network, unlike the case of standard correlation based networks, we find that stocks belonging to the financial sector and, in particular, to the investment services sub-sector, are the most influential stocks affecting the correlation profile of the system. Using a moving window analysis, we find that the strong influence of the financial stocks is conserved across time for the investigated trading period. Our findings shed a new light on the underlying mechanisms and driving forces controlling the correlation profile observed in a financial market.

  4. PENGARUH BULAN RAMADHAN TERHADAP RETURN PASAR SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK INDONESIA (1425H-1434H

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aprida Rusmayanti

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The phenomenon of monthly effect is when the desire of financiers on the liquidity of stock changes from month to month in a year. This monthly effect of course is contrary to the concept of efficient markets, but it gives confidence to investors that there is still a gap to benefit by using information of price and sales volume in past. Ramadhan effect is monthly effect, it has been investigated several time in Islamic countries and it was found that there was a difference in market return during Ramadhan month rather than during any other months. The purpose of this study was to describe the effect of Ramadhan on the stock market return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. Ramadhan effect, is a seasonal anomaly in the financial markets, when stock returns during Ramadhan is different from the other. The unit of analysis used in this study is a JSX composite of 1425H-1434H (February 21, 2004 -3 November 2013. The statistical method used to test the hypothesis is nonparametric test (sign test, because the data are not normally distributed. The results showed that there was no influence of Ramadhan on the stock market return in the Indonesia Stock Exchange.  The cause of the lack of differences in returns among others due to the stability of the value of JSX Composite which is basic calculation of returns, but it also may be due to cultural differences and different conditions during the month of Ramadhan between Indonesia and other countries. Investor behavior changes that occur in other countries during Ramadhan does not occur in Indonesia due to the investors’s composition in Indonesia is still dominated by foreign and institutional investors. The results of this study indicate that the capital market in Indonesia efficient in weak form, because the pattern of stock price movement is random or unpredictable  Keywords:Return of stock market, Ramadhan

  5. The Effects of Financial Ratio and Market Based Ratio toward the Stock Price of Manufacturing Industry Sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyono Mulyono

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The research objectives to examine the magnitude of the significant influence between financial ratios and the market based ratio toward the stock price of manufacturing industry sector in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. In accordance IDX data by December 2013, the number of companies, included in the stock of the manufacturing industry sector, is 139 companies. Based on the analysis, it is concluded that the variable return on assets (ROA and price to book value (PBV has positive influence on stock prices. It can be interpreted that the higher the return on assets ratio and price to book value, the more positive influence on the increase of the stock price. The variable debt to equity ratio (DER and price earnings ratio (PER has negatively influence the stock price on the stock of manufacturing industry sector. This can be interpreted the higher the value of the debt to equity ratio and price earnings ratio, the more negatively influence on the decrease stock price.

  6. How long is the memory of the US stock market?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Paulo; Dionísio, Andreia

    2016-06-01

    The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), one of the most important hypothesis in financial economics, argues that return rates have no memory (correlation) which implies that agents cannot make abnormal profits in financial markets, due to the possibility of arbitrage operations. With return rates for the US stock market, we corroborate the fact that with a linear approach, return rates do not show evidence of correlation. However, linear approaches might not be complete or global, since return rates could suffer from nonlinearities. Using detrended cross-correlation analysis and its correlation coefficient, a methodology which analyzes long-range behavior between series, we show that the long-range correlation of return rates only ends in the 149th lag, which corresponds to about seven months. Does this result undermine the EMH?

  7. Return on Capital and Cost of Capital: How does their Relation Affect Firm Value?

    OpenAIRE

    Halil D. Kaya; Julia S. Kwok; Elizabeth C. Rabe

    2015-01-01

    The Great Recession of 2008-2009 hurt almost all of the companies’ stock values in the United States. Interestingly, for Starbucks, the deterioration started a few years before the recession. From 2005 to 2007, the company’s stock price declined by approximately 40%. This case encourages students to examine the company’s return on capital, compare it to its cost of capital, and then relate this to the decline in the company’s stock price. First, they will establish a single formula for return...

  8. Stock Assessment Supplementary Information (SASINF)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — In the interest of efficiency, clarity and standardization of stock assessment materials, the stock assessment reports for the 2015 Groundfish update have been...

  9. A causality between fund performance and stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ho-Yong; Kwon, Okyu; Oh, Gabjin

    2016-02-01

    We investigate whether the characteristic fund performance indicators (FPI), such as the fund return, the Net asset value (NAV) and the cash flow, are correlated with the asset price movement using information flows estimated by the Granger causality test. First, we find that the information flow of FPI is most sensitive to extreme events of the Korean stock market, which include negative events such as the sub-prime crisis and the impact of QE (quantitative easing) by the US subprime and Europe financial crisis as well as the positive events of the golden period of Korean Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI), except for the fund cash flow. Second, both the fund return and the NAV exhibit significant correlations with the KOSPI, whereas the cash flow is not correlated with the stock market. This result suggests that the information resulting from the ability of the fund manager should influence stock market. Finally, during market crisis period, information flows between FPI and the Korean stock market are significantly positively correlated with the market volatility.

  10. [Return to the family].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouaidou, N G

    1993-08-01

    Sahelian countries occupy an inglorious place in the global list of human development. The human development index is superior to the gross national product (GNP) at measuring the progress of a country in terms of development, because it includes income, longevity, and educational level. The highest ranked Sahelian country holds the 114th position out of a 173 countries. The low human development index scores for the Sahel reflects the socioeconomic crisis which has overcome these countries. In 1991, only 3 of 9 Sahelian countries had a mean GP equal or superior to US$500. Just 2 countries had a life expectancy greater than 50 years. In fact, the Sahel had a lower life expectancy than all of Africa (50 years) and much lower than Asia (64 years) and Latin America (67 years). The economic crisis is worse than the cold statistics show. It destabilizes the most disadvantaged populations. The pressure it exerts often leads public authorities to adopt unpopular measures. It depreciates some sociocultural values and disintegrates traditional social structures. It is accentuated by the effects of war and drought. Internal and external migration increases even as urban hope is uncertain. For most people, the family (the traditional framework of individual development) is ready to break apart, leaving only a disincarnate nuclear entity to subsist. Yet, African history is built around the extended family: the place of reproduction, production, distribution, formation, management, perpetuation of demographic behavior, and social control. Senegal and Mali have created ministries which invest in families. The Third African Conference on Population, in 1992, chose its theme to be the relationship between family, population, and sustainable development. It is important to return to the natural or primordial framework--family--as a refuge against the economic crisis.

  11. The Body Stocking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Louise Ravnløkke Munk; Bang, Anne Louise

    2016-01-01

    of the Repertory Grid technique and Wardrobe Studies to frame a tangible dialogue enabling the parents to elaborate on personal preferences of design aesthetics and materials in baby clothing. In the analysis we use the body stocking as a common reference point for learning about reasons for high use frequency...

  12. Stock Market Savvy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okula, Susan

    2003-01-01

    This issue of Keying In, the newsletter of the National Business Education Association, focuses upon teaching young adults how to develop both investment strategies and an understanding of the stock market. The first article, "Sound Investing Know-How: A Must for Today's Young Adults," describes how young adults can plan for their own…

  13. fertilizer and stocking rates

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and in this case the best economic response was achieved at a lower stocking rate than needed for ... The trial was conducted at two sites, the Bathurst Research Station (33°30'S; 26°50'E) (1986-1994) and ... Rainfall and evaporation at the Bathurst Research Station and rainfall at the Boslaagte homestead were measured ...

  14. Effects of Daylight Saving Time changes on stock market volatility: a reply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet

    2011-12-01

    There is a rich array of evidence that suggests that changes in sleeping patterns affect an individual's decision-making processes. A nationwide sleeping-pattern change happens twice a year when the Daylight Saving Time (DST) change occurs. Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi argued in 2000 that a DST change lowers stock market returns. This study presents evidence that DST changes affect the relationship between stock market return and volatility. Empirical evidence suggests that the positive relationship between return and volatility becomes negative on the Mondays following DST changes.

  15. Multifractals in Western Major STOCK Markets Historical Volatilities in Times of Financial Crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, the generalized Hurst exponent is used to investigate multifractal properties of historical volatility (CHV) in stock market price and return series before, during and after 2008 financial crisis. Empirical results from NASDAQ, S&P500, TSE, CAC40, DAX, and FTSE stock market data show that there is strong evidence of multifractal patterns in HV of both price and return series. In addition, financial crisis deeply affected the behavior and degree of multifractality in volatility of Western financial markets at price and return levels.

  16. The Stock Market and Investment

    OpenAIRE

    Barro, Robert J.

    1989-01-01

    Changes in stock prices have substantial explanatory power for U.S. investment, especially for long-term samples, and even in the presence of cash flow variables. The stock market dramatically out-performs a standard q-variable because the market-equity component of this variable is only a rough proxy for stock market value. Although the stock market did not predict accurately after the crash of October 1987, the errors were not statistically significant. Parallel relationships for Canada rai...

  17. Stock prices and business investment

    OpenAIRE

    Yaron Leitner

    2007-01-01

    Is there a link between the stock market and business investment? Empirical evidence indicates that there is. A firm tends to invest more when its stock price increases, and it tends to invest less when the price falls. In “Stock Prices and Business Investment,” Yaron Leitner discusses existing research that explains this relationship. One question under consideration is whether the stock market actually improves investment decisions.

  18. Stock Liquidity and Investment Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    HEIDI HOOI KHUAN QUAH

    2017-01-01

    This PhD study investigates the implications of stock liquidity on firm investments efficiency. The study finds that high stock liquidity has a positive impact on investment efficiency and shows that the beneficial effect of stock liquidity on investment efficiency is stronger among firms with higher information asymmetry and higher monitoring institutional investors. These findings suggest that high stock liquidity plays important informational and governance roles in mitigating information ...

  19. ---Stock Market Devpt in Ethiopia

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Jetu_E_Ch

    accommodates stock market in Ethiopia is a timely issue to catch up with the global trend, given the ... designed to trade stocks except for the fragmented and unregulated stock trading in a dealer market. ..... Monetary Policy Instruments in Ethiopia (Economic Research Department, National. Bank of Ethiopia) pp. 1-18. 39.

  20. Market impact and structure dynamics of the Chinese stock market based on partial correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xing; Qiu, Tian; Chen, Guang; Zhong, Li-Xin; Wu, Xiao-Run

    2017-04-01

    Partial correlation analysis is employed to study the market impact on the Chinese stock market from both the native and external markets. Whereas the native market index is observed to have a great impact on the market correlations for both the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, some external stock indices of the United States, European and Asian stock markets show a slight influence on the Chinese market. The individual stock can be affected by different economic sectors, but the dominant influence is from the sector the stock itself belongs to or closely related to, and the finance and insurance sector shows a weaker correlation with other economic sectors. Moreover, the market structure similarity exhibits a negative correlation with the price return in most time, and the structure similarity decays with the time interval.