WorldWideScience

Sample records for expected stock returns

  1. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  2. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  3. What Is the Expected Return on a Stock?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

    We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock's excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters....... We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged....

  4. What is the Expected Return on a Stock?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martin, Ian; Wagner, Christian

    We derive a formula that expresses the expected return on a stock in terms of the risk-neutral variance of the market and the stock’s excess risk-neutral variance relative to the average stock. These components can be computed from index and stock option prices; the formula has no free parameters....... We test the theory in-sample by running panel regressions of stock returns onto risk-neutral variances. The formula performs well at 6-month and 1-year forecasting horizons, and our predictors drive out beta, size, book-to-market, and momentum. Out-of-sample, we find that the formula outperforms...... a range of competitors in forecasting individual stock returns. Our results suggest that there is considerably more variation in expected returns, both over time and across stocks, than has previously been acknowledged....

  5. Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Tauchen, George; Zhou, Hao

    constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed to daily, data. The magnitude of the predictability is particularly strong at the intermediate quarterly return horizon, where it dominates that afforded by other popular predictor variables, like the P/E ratio, the default spread, and the consumption...

  6. Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Zhou, Hao

    risk premium with the P/E ratio results in an R2 for the quarterly returns of more than twenty-five percent. The results depend crucially on the use of "model-free", as opposed to standard Black-Scholes, implied variances, and realized variances constructed from high-frequency intraday, as opposed...

  7. Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2008-01-01

    When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...... of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread....

  8. What stock market returns to expect for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diamond, P A

    2000-01-01

    In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant

  9. The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns.

    OpenAIRE

    Fama, Eugene F; French, Kenneth R

    1992-01-01

    Two easily measured variables, size and book-to-market equity, combine to capture the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns associated with market "beta", size, leverage, book-to-market equity, and earnings-price ratios. Moreover, when the tests allow for variation in "beta" that is unrelated to size, t he relation between market "beta" and average return is flat, even when "beta" is the only explanatory variable. Copyright 1992 by American Finance Association.

  10. Sorting out commodity and macroeconomic risk in expected stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boons, M.F.

    2014-01-01

    The dissertation consists of three essays in asset pricing. Chapter I is motivated by the recent surge in institutional investment in commodity futures markets. The chapter studies how commodity risk is priced in stock and futures markets and asks whether this risk premium is time-varying with these

  11. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics. PMID:29190652

  12. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blau, Benjamin M; Whitby, Ryan J

    2017-01-01

    One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility), which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

  13. Range-based volatility, expected stock returns, and the low volatility anomaly.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin M Blau

    Full Text Available One of the foundations of financial economics is the idea that rational investors will discount stocks with more risk (volatility, which will result in a positive relation between risk and future returns. However, the empirical evidence is mixed when determining how volatility is related to future returns. In this paper, we examine this relation using a range-based measure of volatility, which is shown to be theoretically, numerically, and empirically superior to other measures of volatility. In a variety of tests, we find that range-based volatility is negatively associated with expected stock returns. These results are robust to time-series multifactor models as well as cross-sectional tests. Our findings contribute to the debate about the direction of the relationship between risk and return and confirm the presence of the low volatility anomaly, or the anomalous finding that low volatility stocks outperform high volatility stocks. In other tests, we find that the lower returns associated with range-based volatility are driven by stocks with lottery-like characteristics.

  14. Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations and Expected Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Jiang, Danling

    2008-01-01

    This paper develops two competing hypotheses for the relation between the cross-sectional standard deviation of logarithmic firm fundamental-to-price ratios (``dispersion'') and expected aggregate returns. In models with fully rational beliefs, greater dispersion indicates greater risk and higher expected aggregate returns. In models with investor overconfidence, greater dispersion indicates greater mispricing and lower expected aggregate returns. Consistent with the behavioral models, the re...

  15. Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

  16. Illiquidity premium and expected stock returns in the UK: A new approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jiaqi; Sherif, Mohamed

    2016-09-01

    This study examines the relative importance of liquidity risk for the time-series and cross-section of stock returns in the UK. We propose a simple way to capture the multidimensionality of illiquidity. Our analysis indicates that existing illiquidity measures have considerable asset specific components, which justifies our new approach. Further, we use an alternative test of the Amihud (2002) measure and parametric and non-parametric methods to investigate whether liquidity risk is priced in the UK. We find that the inclusion of the illiquidity factor in the capital asset pricing model plays a significant role in explaining the cross-sectional variation in stock returns, in particular with the Fama-French three-factor model. Further, using Hansen-Jagannathan non-parametric bounds, we find that the illiquidity-augmented capital asset pricing models yield a small distance error, other non-liquidity based models fail to yield economically plausible distance values. Our findings have important implications for managing the liquidity risk of equity portfolios.

  17. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  18. Capital Structure and Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Ivo Welch

    2002-01-01

    U.S. corporations do not issue and repurchase debt and equity to counteract the mechanistic effects of stock returns on their debt-equity ratios. Thus over one- to five-year horizons, stock returns can explain about 40 percent of debt ratio dynamics. Although corporate net issuing activity is lively and although it can explain 60 percent of debt ratio dynamics (long-term debt issuing activity being most capital structurerelevant), corporate issuing motives remain largely a mystery. When stock...

  19. Stock Returns and Risk: Evidence from Quantile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Chiang

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs weighted least squares to examine the risk-return relation by applying high-frequency data from four major stock indexes in the US market and finds some evidence in favor of a positive relation between the mean of the excess returns and expected risk. However, by using quantile regressions, we find that the risk-return relation moves from negative to positive as the returns’ quantile increases. A positive risk-return relation is valid only in the upper quantiles. The evidence also suggests that intraday skewness plays a dominant role in explaining the variations of excess returns.

  20. Tick size and stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onnela, Jukka-Pekka; Töyli, Juuso; Kaski, Kimmo

    2009-02-01

    Tick size is an important aspect of the micro-structural level organization of financial markets. It is the smallest institutionally allowed price increment, has a direct bearing on the bid-ask spread, influences the strategy of trading order placement in electronic markets, affects the price formation mechanism, and appears to be related to the long-term memory of volatility clustering. In this paper we investigate the impact of tick size on stock returns. We start with a simple simulation to demonstrate how continuous returns become distorted after confining the price to a discrete grid governed by the tick size. We then move on to a novel experimental set-up that combines decimalization pilot programs and cross-listed stocks in New York and Toronto. This allows us to observe a set of stocks traded simultaneously under two different ticks while holding all security-specific characteristics fixed. We then study the normality of the return distributions and carry out fits to the chosen distribution models. Our empirical findings are somewhat mixed and in some cases appear to challenge the simulation results.

  1. Price Earnings Ratio and Stock Return Analysis (Evidence from Liquidity 45 Stocks Listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liem Pei Fun

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Price to Earnings Ratio (PE Ratio has been broadly used by analysts and investors for stock selection. Stocks with low PE ratio are perceived as having cheaper current price hence expected to generate higher return in subsequent period. This paper aims to examine predictability of stock return using PE Ratio based on historical relationship between PE Ratio and subsequent stock return. Particularly, it seeks to find whether stocks with high PE Ratio followed by low stocks return and on the contrary, stocks with low PE Ratio followed by high stocks return. Using stocks which are included as member of Liquidity 45 and observation period 2005-2010 as samples, results show that there is significance difference between low PE and high PE portfolio stock return in short term (holding period of 6 months but there is no significance difference between both portfolio stock return if they are hold for one, two, three, and four years. This research also finds that there is no significant relationship between stock return and (trailing PE Ratio which suggests that (trailing PE Ratio is not useful in estimating both short term and long term stock returns

  2. Which stocks are profitable? A network method to investigate the effects of network structure on stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Kun; Luo, Peng; Sun, Bianxia; Wang, Huaiqing

    2015-10-01

    According to asset pricing theory, a stock's expected returns are determined by its exposure to systematic risk. In this paper, we propose a new method for analyzing the interaction effects among industries and stocks on stock returns. We construct a complex network based on correlations of abnormal stock returns and use centrality and modularity, two popular measures in social science, to determine the effect of interconnections on industry and stock returns. Supported by previous studies, our findings indicate that a relationship exists between inter-industry closeness and industry returns and between stock centrality and stock returns. The theoretical and practical contributions of these findings are discussed.

  3. Stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Reis, Luciana; Meurer, Roberto; Da Silva, Sergio

    2008-01-01

    We examine the relationship between stock returns and foreign investment in Brazil, and find that the inflows of foreign investment boosted the returns from 1995 to 2005. There was a strong contemporaneous correlation, although not Granger-causality. Foreign investment along with the exchange rate, the influence of the world stock markets, and country risk can explain 73 percent of the changes that occurred in the stock returns over the period. We also find that positive feedback trading play...

  4. Legal institutions, strategic default, and stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Favara, G.; Schroth, E.; Valta, P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper studies the impact of legal institutions on stock returns. More specifically, we examine how differences in debt enforcement and creditor protection around the world affect stock returns of individual firms. We hypothesize that if legal institutions prevent shareholders from engaging in

  5. The Effect of Stock Return Sequences on Trading Volumes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrey Kudryavtsev

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study explores the effect of the gambler’s fallacy on stock trading volumes. I hypothesize that if a stock’s price rises (falls during a number of consecutive trading days, then the gambler’s fallacy may cause at least some of the investors to expect that the stock’s price “has” to subsequently fall (rise, and thus, to increase their willingness to sell (buy the stock, resulting in a stronger degree of disagreement between the investors and a higher-than-usual stock trading volume on the first day when the stock’s price indeed falls (rises. Employing a large sample of daily price and trading volume data, I document that following relatively long sequences of the same-sign stock returns, on the days when the sign is reversed, the trading activity in the respective stocks is abnormally high. Moreover, average abnormal trading volumes gradually and significantly increase with the length of the preceding return sequence. The effect is slightly more pronounced following the sequences of negative stock returns, and remains significant after controlling for other potentially influential factors, including contemporaneous and lagged actual and absolute stock returns, historical stock returns and volatilities, and company-specific events, such as earnings announcements and dividend payments.

  6. Macroeconomic Forces and Stock Returns in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Phan, Van Hang

    2008-01-01

    Capital market development, especially the appearance of Vietnamese equity market recently has a strategic importance in the economic growth and structural reform process of Vietnam (Chun et al, 2003). This dissertation focuses on the impacts of macroeconomic forces on stock market returns in Vietnamese stock market which has not been investigated in detail before, and thereby to contribute further literature on this new emerging stock market. Specifically, the research will intensively inves...

  7. Linkage between company scores and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saban Celik

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Previous studies on company scores conducted at firm-level, generally concluded that there exists a positive relation between company scores and stock returns. Motivated by these studies, this study examines the relationship between company scores (Corporate Governance Score, Economic Score, Environmental Score, and Social Score and stock returns, both at portfolio-level analysis and firm-level cross-sectional regressions. In portfolio-level analysis, stocks are sorted based on each company scores and quintile portfolio are formed with different levels of company scores. Then, existence and significance of raw returns and risk-adjusted returns difference between portfolios with the extreme company scores (portfolio 10 and portfolio 1 is tested. In addition, firm-level cross-sectional regression is performed to examine the significance of company scores effects with control variables. While portfolio-level analysis results indicate that there is no significant relation between company scores and stock returns; firm-level analysis indicates that economic, environmental, and social scores have effect on stock returns, however, significance and direction of these effects change, depending on the included control variables in the cross-sectional regression.

  8. Money growth and aggregate stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Böing, Tobias; Stadtmann, Georg

    2016-01-01

    We empirically evaluate the predictive power of money growth measured by M2 for stock returns of the S&P 500 index. We use monthly US data and predict multiperiod returns over 1, 3, and 5 years with long-horizon regressions. In-sample regressions show that money growth is useful for predicting returns. Higher recent money growth has a significantly negative effect on subsequent returns of the S&P 500. An out-of-sample analysis shows that a simple model with money growth as a single predictor ...

  9. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  10. Stock return distribution in the BRICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Adu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Stock returns in emerging market economies exhibit patterns that are distinctively different from developed countries: returns are noted to be highly volatile and autocorrelated, and long horizon returns are predictable. While these stylized facts are well established, the assumption underlying the distribution of returns is less understood. In particular, the empirical literature continues to rely on the normality assumption as a starting point, and most asset pricing models tend to overstretch this point. This paper questions the rationale behind this supposition and proceeds to test more formally for normality using multivariate joint test for skewness and kurtosis. Additionally, the paper extends the literature by examining a number of empirical regularities for Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (the BRICS for short. Our main findings are that the distribution of stock returns for the BRICS exhibits peakedness with fatter and longer tails, and this is invariant to both the unit of measurement and the time horizon of returns. Volatility clustering is prevalent in all markets, and this decays exponentially for all but Brazil. The relationship between risk and return is found to be significant and risk premiums are prevalent in our sample.

  11. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    HUDOMIET, PÉTER; KÉZDI, GÁBOR; WILLIS, ROBERT J.

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households’ expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market. PMID:21547244

  12. STOCK MARKET CRASH AND EXPECTATIONS OF AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hudomiet, Péter; Kézdi, Gábor; Willis, Robert J

    2011-01-01

    This paper utilizes data on subjective probabilities to study the impact of the stock market crash of 2008 on households' expectations about the returns on the stock market index. We use data from the Health and Retirement Study that was fielded in February 2008 through February 2009. The effect of the crash is identified from the date of the interview, which is shown to be exogenous to previous stock market expectations. We estimate the effect of the crash on the population average of expected returns, the population average of the uncertainty about returns (subjective standard deviation), and the cross-sectional heterogeneity in expected returns (disagreement). We show estimates from simple reduced-form regressions on probability answers as well as from a more structural model that focuses on the parameters of interest and separates survey noise from relevant heterogeneity. We find a temporary increase in the population average of expectations and uncertainty right after the crash. The effect on cross-sectional heterogeneity is more significant and longer lasting, which implies substantial long-term increase in disagreement. The increase in disagreement is larger among the stockholders, the more informed, and those with higher cognitive capacity, and disagreement co-moves with trading volume and volatility in the market.

  13. Fundamental volatility and stock returns : does fundamental volatility explain stock returns?

    OpenAIRE

    Selboe, Guner K.; Virdee, Jaspal Singh

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis, we investigate whether the fundamental uncertainty can explain the crosssection of stock returns. To measure the fundamental uncertainty, we estimate rolling standard deviations and accounting betas of four different fundamentals: revenues, gross profit, earnings and cash flows. The standard deviation and the beta of revenues significantly explain returns in the Fama-Macbeth procedure, but only appears significant among smaller stocks in the portfolio formation ...

  14. Quantifying Stock Return Distributions in Financial Markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botta, Federico; Moat, Helen Susannah; Stanley, H Eugene; Preis, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Being able to quantify the probability of large price changes in stock markets is of crucial importance in understanding financial crises that affect the lives of people worldwide. Large changes in stock market prices can arise abruptly, within a matter of minutes, or develop across much longer time scales. Here, we analyze a dataset comprising the stocks forming the Dow Jones Industrial Average at a second by second resolution in the period from January 2008 to July 2010 in order to quantify the distribution of changes in market prices at a range of time scales. We find that the tails of the distributions of logarithmic price changes, or returns, exhibit power law decays for time scales ranging from 300 seconds to 3600 seconds. For larger time scales, we find that the distributions tails exhibit exponential decay. Our findings may inform the development of models of market behavior across varying time scales.

  15. An Analysis of Theories on Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet Sekreter

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective in writing this article is to provide an overview of the theories that has been developed for stock returns which is an important area of financial markets’ researches. Since the researches in this field are very active for the past quarter, it is not possible to describe all works that has been done in this area. Most important researches will be discussed without going deeper in mathematical tools and theories.

  16. IFRS and Stock Returns: An Empirical Analysis in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodrigo F. Malaquias

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the convergence of accounting standards has been an issue that motivated new studies in the accounting field. It is expected that the convergence provides users, especially external users of accounting information, with comparable reports among different economies. Considering this scenario, this article was developed in order to compare the effect of accounting numbers on the stock market before and after the accounting convergence in Brazil. The sample of the study involved Brazilian listed companies at BM&FBOVESPA that had American Depository Receipts (levels II and III at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE. For data analysis, descriptive statistics and graphic analysis were employed in order to analyze the behavior of stock returns around the publication dates. The main results indicate that the stock market reacts to the accounting reports. Therefore, the accounting numbers contain relevant information for the decision making of investors in the stock market. Moreover, it is observed that after the accounting convergence, the stock returns of the companies seem to present lower volatility.

  17. Forecast Correlation Coefficient Matrix of Stock Returns in Portfolio Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Zhao, Feng

    2013-01-01

    In Modern Portfolio Theory, the correlation coefficients decide the risk of a set of stocks in the portfolio. So, to understand the correlation coefficients between returns of stocks, is a challenge but is very important for the portfolio management. Usually, the stocks with small correlation coefficients or even negative correlation coefficients are preferred. One can calculate the correlation coefficients of stock returns based on the historical stock data. However, in order to control the ...

  18. Long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns

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    Silvo Dajčman

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to analyze and compare the fractal structure of the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns. The presence of long memory components in asset returns provides evidence against the weak-form of stock market efficiency. The starting working hypothesis that there is no long memory in the Croatian and Hungarian stock market returns is tested by applying the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS (1992 test, Lo’s (1991 modified rescaled range (R/S test, and the wavelet ordinary least squares (WOLS estimator of Jensen (1999. The research showed that the WOLS estimator may lead to different conclusions regarding long memory presence in the stock returns from the KPSS and unit root tests or Lo’s R/S test. Furthermore, it proved that the fractal structure of individual stock returns may be masked in aggregated stock market returns (i.e. in returns of stock index. The main finding of the paper is that both the Croatian stock index Crobex and individual stocks in this index exhibit long memory. Long memory is identified for some stocks in the Hungarian stock market as well, but not for the stock market index BUX. Based on the results of the long memory tests, it can be concluded that while the Hungarian stock market is weakform efficient, the Croatian stock market is not.

  19. Habit, Production, and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Andrew Y.

    2014-01-01

    Solutions to the equity premium puzzle should inform us about the cross-section of stock returns. An external habit model with heterogeneous firms reproduces numerous stylized facts about both the equity premium and the value premium. The equity premium is large, time-varying, and linked with consumption volatility. The cross-section of expected returns is log-linear in B/M, and the slope matches the data. The explanation for the value premium lies in the interaction between the cross-section...

  20. The roles of the trading time risks on stock investment return and risks in stock price crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Dong, Zhi-Wei; Yang, Guo-Hui; Long, Chao

    2017-03-01

    The roles of the trading time risks (TTRs) on stock investment return and risks are investigated in the condition of stock price crashes with Hushen300 data (CSI300) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (ˆDJI), respectively. In order to describe the TTR, we employ the escape time that the stock price drops from the maximum to minimum value in a data window length (DWL). After theoretical and empirical research on probability density function of return, the results in both ˆDJI and CSI300 indicate that: (i) As increasing DWL, the expectation of returns and its stability are weakened. (ii) An optimal TTR is related to a maximum return and minimum risk of stock investment in stock price crashes.

  1. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Bing XIAO

    2016-01-01

    According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011). This study shows th...

  2. VOLATILITY AND KURTOSIS OF DAILY STOCK RETURNS AT MSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zoran Ivanovski

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Prominent financial stock pricing models are built on assumption that asset returns follow a normal (Gaussian distribution. However, many authors argue that in the practice stock returns are often characterized by skewness and kurtosis, so we test the existence of the Gaussian distribution of stock returns and calculate the kurtosis of several stocks at the Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE. Obtaining information about the shape of distribution is an important step for models of pricing risky assets. The daily stock returns at Macedonian Stock Exchange (MSE are characterized by high volatility and non-Gaussian behaviors as well as they are extremely leptokurtic. The analysis of MSE time series stock returns determine volatility clustering and high kurtosis. The fact that daily stock returns at MSE are not normally distributed put into doubt results that rely heavily on this assumption and have significant implications for portfolio management. We consider this stock market as good representatives of emerging markets. Therefore, we argue that our results are valid for other similar emerging stock markets.

  3. THE EFFECT OF MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES ON STOCK RETURNS ON DHAKA STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed Monjurul Quadir

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the effects of macroeconomic variables of treasury bill interest rate and industrial production on stock returns on Dhaka Stock Exchange for the period between January 2000 and February 2007 on the basis of monthly time series data using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA model. The paper has taken the overall market stock returns as an independent variable. It does not consider the stock returns of different companies separately. Though the ARIMA model finds a positive relationship between Treasury bill interest rate and industrial production with market stock returns but the coefficients have turned out to be statistically insignificant.

  4. The Effects of Twitter Sentiment on Stock Price Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranco, Gabriele; Aleksovski, Darko; Caldarelli, Guido; Grčar, Miha; Mozetič, Igor

    2015-01-01

    Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-known micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnormal returns during the peaks of Twitter volume. This is valid not only for the expected Twitter volume peaks (e.g., quarterly announcements), but also for peaks corresponding to less obvious events. We formalize the procedure by adapting the well-known "event study" from economics and finance to the analysis of Twitter data. The procedure allows to automatically identify events as Twitter volume peaks, to compute the prevailing sentiment (positive or negative) expressed in tweets at these peaks, and finally to apply the "event study" methodology to relate them to stock returns. We show that sentiment polarity of Twitter peaks implies the direction of cumulative abnormal returns. The amount of cumulative abnormal returns is relatively low (about 1-2%), but the dependence is statistically significant for several days after the events.

  5. Expected commodity returns and pricing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

  6. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yingying; Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  7. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yingying Xu

    Full Text Available This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter's variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive, detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market.

  8. Weibo sentiments and stock return: A time-frequency view

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Zhixin; Zhao, Jichang; Su, Chiwei

    2017-01-01

    This study provides new insights into the relationships between social media sentiments and the stock market in China. Based on machine learning, we classify microblogs posted on Sina Weibo, a Twitter’s variant in China into five detailed sentiments of anger, disgust, fear, joy, and sadness. Using wavelet analysis, we find close positive linkages between sentiments and the stock return, which have both frequency and time-varying features. Five detailed sentiments are positively related to the stock return for certain periods, particularly since October 2014 at medium to high frequencies of less than ten trading days, when the stock return is undergoing significant fluctuations. Sadness appears to have a closer relationship with the stock return than the other four sentiments. As to the lead-lag relationships, the stock return causes Weibo sentiments rather than reverse for most of the periods with significant linkages. Compared with polarity sentiments (negative vs. positive), detailed sentiments provide more information regarding relationships between Weibo sentiments and the stock market. The stock market exerts positive effects on bullishness and agreement of microblogs. Meanwhile, agreement leads the stock return in-phase at the frequency of approximately 40 trading days, indicating that less disagreement improves certainty about the stock market. PMID:28672026

  9. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, B.; Christoffersen, P.; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high

  10. Multifractal analysis of Moroccan family business stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, long-range temporal correlations at different scales in Moroccan family business stock returns are investigated. For comparison purpose, presence of multifractality is also investigated in Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) major indices: MASI which is the all shares index and MADEX which is the index of most liquid shares. It is found that return series of both family business companies and major stock market indices show strong evidence of multifractality. In particular, empirical results reveal that short (long) fluctuations in family business stock returns are less (more) persistent (anti-persistent) than short fluctuations in market indices. In addition, both serial correlation and distribution characteristics significantly influence the strength of the multifractal spectrums of CSE and family business stocks returns. Furthermore, results from multifractal spectrum analysis suggest that family business stocks are less risky. Thus, such differences in price dynamics could be exploited by investors and forecasters in active portfolio management.

  11. Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2001-01-01

    This paper uses a multifactor market model to estimate the expected returns to Canadian oil and gas industry stock prices. Results are presented to show that exchange rates, crude oil prices and interest rates each have large and significant impacts on stock price returns in the Canadian oil and gas industry. In particular, an increase in the market or oil price factor increases the return to Canadian oil and gas stock prices while an increase in exchange rates or the term premium decreases the return to Canadian oil and gas stock prices. Furthermore, the oil and gas sector is less risky than the market and its moves are pro-cyclical. This suggests that Canadian oil and gas stocks may not be a good hedge against inflation

  12. The reaction of stock market returns to anticipated unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Taamouti, Abderrahim; Gonzalo Muñoz, Jesús

    2012-01-01

    We empirically investigate the short-run impact of anticipated and unanticipated unemployment rates on stock prices. We particularly examine the nonlinearity in stock market's reaction to unemployment rate and study the effect at each individual point (quantile) of stock return distribution. Using nonparametric Granger causality and quantile regression based tests, we find that, contrary to the general findings in the literature, only anticipated unemployment rate has a strong impact on stock...

  13. Bank Stock Returns in Responding the Contribution of Fundamental and Macroeconomic Effects

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ridwan Nurazi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to examine the effect of financial fundamentals information using CAMELS ratios and macroeconomics variables surrogated by interest rate, exchange rate, and inflation rate toward stock return. By employing panel data analysis (Pooled Least Squared Model, the results reveal that several financial ratios perform a bit contrary to the theory, in which the ratio of CAR shows positive sign but insignificantly contributes to stock returns. Also, the ratio of NPL does not affect the return. In fact, ROE and LDR positively and significantly contribute toward banks’ stock return. Meanwhile, NIM and BOPO show negative signs. The other macroeconomic variables, interest rate (IR, exchange rate (ER and inflation rate (INF are consistent with the a priori expectation, in which those variables negatively and significantly contribute to stock return of 16 banks, for the observation period from 2002 to 2011 in the Indonesian banking sector.

  14. Extrapolation bias and the predictability of stock returns by price-scaled variables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cassella, Stefano; Gulen, H.

    Using survey data on expectations of future stock returns, we recursively estimate the degree of extrapolative weighting in investors' beliefs (DOX). In an extrapolation framework, DOX determines the relative weight investors place on recent-versus-distant past returns. DOX varies considerably over

  15. Estimating Stocks Return with Decomposition of the Book-to-Market Ratio: Evidences from Bovespa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliano Ribeiro de Almeida

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The book-to-market (BM ratio differs across stocks because to differences in expected cashflows and expected returns. The central hypothesis is that the evolution of BM, in terms of past changes in price and book equity, contains information about future cashflows that can be used to improve estimates of expected returns. This article used a database of Economática to extract a sample of non-financial companies shares listed on BOVESPA and test this hypothesis. The estimated regressions were performed monthly during the period July 1996 to June 2008. Both for large and mid caps as for small caps, the results do not favor this hypothesis and show that only the most recent BM is important to predict the assets returns. Furthermore, stock issues and repurchases are also related to future cashflows and it is expected to improve estimates of expected returns. However, the results provide no evidence favoring that.

  16. Daily happiness and stock returns: Some international evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Li, Xiao; Shen, Dehua; Teglio, Andrea

    2016-10-01

    In this paper, we examine the relations between the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter and the stock market performance in 11 international stock markets. By partitioning this happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the happiest days, we first show that the contemporary correlation coefficients between happiness sentiment and index return in the 4 and most-happiness subgroups are higher than that in least, 2 and 3-happiness subgroups. Secondly, the happiness sentiment can provide additional explanatory power for index return in the most-happiness subgroup. Thirdly, the daily happiness can granger-cause the changes in index return for the majority of stock markets. Fourthly, we find that the index return and the range-based volatility of the most-happiness subgroup are larger than those of other subgroups. These results highlight the important role of social media in stock market.

  17. Market skewness risk and the cross section of stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chang, B.Y.; Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, K.

    2013-01-01

    The cross section of stock returns has substantial exposure to risk captured by higher moments of market returns. We estimate these moments from daily Standard & Poor's 500 index option data. The resulting time series of factors are genuinely conditional and forward-looking. Stocks with high...... exposure to innovations in implied market skewness exhibit low returns on average. The results are robust to various permutations of the empirical setup. The market skewness risk premium is statistically and economically significant and cannot be explained by other common risk factors such as the market...... excess return or the size, book-to-market, momentum, and market volatility factors, or by firm characteristics....

  18. Asymmetry of Returns in the Australian STOCK Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunner, Susan M.; Brooks, Louise; Storer, Robin G.

    We use econophysics techniques to investigate the characteristics of the distribution of returns from the All Ordinaries Index and from optimal portfolios constructed from individual stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange. We find in general that the tails of the distributions are asymmetric and that the negative tail favours a power-law behaviour while the positive tail is more Gaussian.

  19. Crude oil price shocks and stock returns. Evidence from Turkish stock market under global liquidity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Berk, Istemi [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Energiewirtschaftliches Inst.; Aydogan, Berna [Izmir Univ. of Economics (Turkey). Dept. of International Trade and Finance

    2012-09-15

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the impacts of crude oil price variations on the Turkish stock market returns. We have employed vector autoregression (V AR) model using daily observations of Brent crude oil prices and Istanbul Stock Exchange National Index (ISE- 1 00) returns for the period between January 2, 1990 and November 1, 2011. We have also tested the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns under global liquidity conditions by incorporating a liquidity proxy variable, Chicago Board of Exchange's (CBOE) S and P 500 market volatility index (VIX), into the model. Variance decomposition test results suggest little empirical evidence that crude oil price shocks have been rationally evaluated in the Turkish stock market. Rather, it was global liquidity conditions that were found to account for the greatest amount of variation in stock market returns.

  20. INDONESIA SHARI'AH COMPLIANCE STOCK RETURN BEHAVIOUR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helma Malini

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to measures the behaviour of Indonesia Shari'ah compliance stock return. The measurement of return behaviour toward volatility will proved the capability of Indonesia Shari'ah compliance toward volatility that happened in Indonesia during the period of observation. Investing in Shari'ah compliance is quite different than investing in conventional stock which followed the capital market set of rules and law, Shari'ah compliance follows not only the capital market set of laws and but also the Islamic principles of principles. Most of the previous studies examine issues related to the conventional stocks and market. The present study take one step further by investigating issue related to Shari'ah compliance instrument. In the case of Shari'ah stock price in Indonesia, the dynamics volatility of the stock price can be minimized by taking an integrated screening process to the listed company, as precautions steps toward volatility

  1. The risks and returns of stock investment in a financial market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2013-03-01

    The risks and returns of stock investment are discussed via numerically simulating the mean escape time and the probability density function of stock price returns in the modified Heston model with time delay. Through analyzing the effects of delay time and initial position on the risks and returns of stock investment, the results indicate that: (i) There is an optimal delay time matching minimal risks of stock investment, maximal average stock price returns and strongest stability of stock price returns for strong elasticity of demand of stocks (EDS), but the opposite results for weak EDS; (ii) The increment of initial position recedes the risks of stock investment, strengthens the average stock price returns and enhances stability of stock price returns. Finally, the probability density function of stock price returns and the probability density function of volatility and the correlation function of stock price returns are compared with other literatures. In addition, good agreements are found between them.

  2. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher...

  3. Risk-Return Trade-Off for European Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte; Savva, Christos S.

    2015-01-01

    This paper adopts dynamic factor models with macro-finance predictors to revisit the intertemporal risk-return relation in five large European stock markets. We identify country specific, Euro area, and global factors to determine the conditional moments of returns considering the role of higher-order moments as additional measures of risk. The preferred combination of factors varies across countries. In the linear model, there is a strong but negative relation between conditional returns and...

  4. Stock Return Prediction with Hidden Order Mapping

    OpenAIRE

    Mamidi, Varsha

    2016-01-01

    Missing data problem is ubiquitous in many real life situations. Information Technology researchers have explored and tried to address this problem in different settings. In this thesis, we undertake research to address missing data problem associated with order book information in stock markets. This is an in-depth and large-scale study with systematic and comprehensive framework to address missing data problem in the finance literature.    Orders placed by traders and ...

  5. When Kahneman meets Manski: Using dual systems of reasoning to interpret subjective expectations of equity returns

    OpenAIRE

    Gouret , Fabian; Hollard , Guillaume

    2011-01-01

    International audience; To understand how decisions to invest in stocks are taken, economists need to elicit expectations relative to expected risk-return trade-off. One of the few surveys which have included such questions is the Survey of Economic Expectations in 1999-2001. Using this survey, Dominitz and Manski find an important heterogeneity across respondents that can hardly be accounted for by simple models of expectations formation. This paper claims that much of the heterogeneity deri...

  6. The impact of leverage on stock returns: an empirical test on the Australian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Thuy Linh, Doan

    2009-01-01

    Asset pricing model is no longer a new topic to theoretical finance but it still maintains researchers’ interest until now. The role of firm characteristics in explaining the stock returns becomes more and more significant in the empirical studies. The Fama French three factor is the most famous model of testing the firm characteristics: size effect and book to market effect on stock returns. However, this model does not include leverage, one of the most important firm characteristics. Starti...

  7. Earnings announcements and the variability of stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Eilifsen, Aasmund; Knivsflå, Kjell Henry; Sættem, Frode

    1999-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the dissemination process of firm-specific annual earnings information in the Norwegian capital market. We find a significant reduction in stock price volatility in the post-announcement period relative to the pre-announcement period for companies traded on the Oslo Stock Exchange in the period 1990-1995. Potential explanations for this phenomenon are tested by relating the observed return volatility to changes in the volatility of the underlying business, the spe...

  8. How well do financial and macroeconomic variables predict stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Anne-Sofie Reng

    Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare their forecas......Recent evidence of mean reversion in stock returns has led to an explosion in the development of forecasting variables. This paper evaluates the relative performance of these many variables in both time-series and cross-sectional setups. We collect the different measures and compare...... their forecasting ability for stock returns, and we examine the forecasting variables' ability to reduce pricing errors in the conditional C-CAPM. A key result of the analysis is that the traditional pricedividend ratio performs surprisingly well compared to the many new forecasting variables. We also find...

  9. End-of-the-Year Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    . To explain these results, we show as the second main fi?nding of our paper that economic growth and growth in economic confidence (consumer con?dence and business con?dence) are strongly correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters. In summary, we therefore show that when economic......We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth-quarter or December) strongly predicts the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas economic growth...... during the rest of the year does not predict returns. End-of-the-year economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used to predict returns, are robust to the choice of macro variables, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples...

  10. End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    . To explain these results, we show as the second main fi…nding of our paper that economic growth and growth in economic confidence (consumer con…dence and business con…dence) are strongly correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters. In summary, we therefore show that when economic......We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth-quarter or December) strongly predicts the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas economic growth...... during the rest of the year does not predict returns. End-of-the-year economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used to predict returns, are robust to the choice of macro variables, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples...

  11. Nonlinear dynamic interrelationships between real activity and stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lanne, Markku; Nyberg, Henri

    We explore the differences between the causal and noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) models in capturing the real activity-stock return-relationship. Unlike the conventional linear VAR model, the noncausal VAR model is capable of accommodating various nonlinear characteristics of the data....... In quarterly U.S. data, we find strong evidence in favor of noncausality, and the best causal and noncausal VAR models imply quite different dynamics. In particular, the linear VAR model appears to underestimate the importance of the stock return shock for the real activity, and the real activity shock...

  12. A Comparison of Tail Behaviour of Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Echaust Krzysztof

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Most investors believe that left tails of the stock returns distribution are heavier than the right ones. It is a natural consequence of crashes perception as much more turbulent than the booms. Crashes develop in shorter time intervals than booms and changes of prices are significantly bigger. This paper focuses on the extreme behavior of stock market returns. The differences in the tails thickness of distribution are negligible. Its main result is that the differences between tails have been found in the clustering of extremes, especially during the crash of 2007-2009.

  13. Classifying Returns as Extreme: European Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    whereby a shorter sample period is needed. For the bond markets the simultaneous extreme return variable (used for analyzing integration and contagion of financial markets) is not statistically different for the two schemes. For the stock markets there are differences, but they are disappearing......I consider the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries. I use two classification schemes for defining extreme returns: One, the existing univariate classification scheme which considers each market separately. Two, the new multivariate classification scheme that considers all the markets jointly...

  14. EMPIRICAL DISTRIBUTION OF STOCK RETURNS OF SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN EMERGING MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aleksandar Naumoski

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The assumption that equity returns follow the normal distribution, most commonly made in financial economics theory and applications, is strongly rejected by empirical evidence presented in this paper. As it was found in many other studies, we confirm that stock returns follow a leptokurtic distribution and skewness, which in most of the Southeast European (SEE markets is negative. This paper investigates further whether there is any distribution that may be considered an optimal fit for stock returns in the SEE region. Using daily, weekly and monthly data samples for a period of five years from ten Southeast European emerging countries, we applied the Anderson-Darling test of Goodness-of-fit. We strongly rejected the aforementioned assumption of normality for all considered data samples and found that the daily stock returns are best fitted by the Johnson SU distribution whereas for the weekly and monthly stock returns there was not one predominant, but many distributions that can be considered a best fit.

  15. Earnings quality measures and excess returns: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hassan Hemmati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between earning quality measure and excess returns on selected firms trading on Tehran Stock Exchange. The purpose of this study is to find the relative advantage of income figures reported in formal financial statements. The study uses hedge return, six accounting ratios and three market ratios and performs the study over the period of 2001-2011 using 56 firms whose shares were traded on Tehran Stock Exchange. The proposed study uses regression analysis as well as structural equation modeling. The results of this study indicate that market based figures are more influencing than accounting based ratios on hedge return. In other words, hedge return for persistency index was more predictable than smoothness and abnormal accruals. However, on the contrary to what we expected, hedge return for accruals was not more than other accounting based figures.

  16. Modeling IPO In Dubai Stock Market: Booming Or Tumbling Return?

    OpenAIRE

    Viviane Y. Naïmy

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of IPO on Dubai Stock Market. We measured through detailed distribution analysis and hypothesis testing the Dubai markets reaction to IPO. We demonstrated that IPO had downbeat impact on Dubai market performance in terms of return as revealed by the rejection of the alternative hypothesis. The independency between market return and IPO was partially attributed to irrational valuations at the time of IPO.

  17. The Equity Share in New Issues and Aggregate Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Malcolm Baker; Jeffrey Wurgler

    1999-01-01

    The share of equity issues in total new equity and debt issues is a strong predictor of U.S. stock market returns between 1928 and 1997. In particular, firms issue relatively more equity than debt just before periods of low market returns. The equity share in new issues has stable predictive power in both halves of the sample period, and after controlling for other known predictors. We do not find support for efficient market ex

  18. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  19. Modeling stock return distributions with a quantum harmonic oscillator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahn, K.; Choi, M. Y.; Dai, B.; Sohn, S.; Yang, B.

    2017-11-01

    We propose a quantum harmonic oscillator as a model for the market force which draws a stock return from short-run fluctuations to the long-run equilibrium. The stochastic equation governing our model is transformed into a Schrödinger equation, the solution of which features “quantized” eigenfunctions. Consequently, stock returns follow a mixed χ distribution, which describes Gaussian and non-Gaussian features. Analyzing the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) All Share Index, we demonstrate that our model outperforms traditional stochastic process models, e.g., the geometric Brownian motion and the Heston model, with smaller fitting errors and better goodness-of-fit statistics. In addition, making use of analogy, we provide an economic rationale of the physics concepts such as the eigenstate, eigenenergy, and angular frequency, which sheds light on the relationship between finance and econophysics literature.

  20. Conditional Relationship Between Beta and Return in the US Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bing XIAO

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available According to the CAPM, risk is measured by the beta, and the relation between required expected return and beta is linear. This paper examines the conditional relationship between beta and return in the US stock market. The conditional covariances and variances used to estimate beta are modeled as an ARCH process. The beta return relationship is tested upon the sign of the excess market return. The implication of the sign of the excess market return follows Morelli (2011. This study shows the importance of recognizing the sign of the excess market return when testing the beta-return relationship. The approach also allows us to distinguish the size effect and the effect of economic cycles.

  1. The Impact of Capital Structure on Stock Returns: International Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza TAHMOORESPOUR

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between capital structure and stock returns of firms in the following eight countries in the Asia Pacific regionfor a period of 22 years from 1990 to 2012. The methodology is Panel Regression. The results indicate that the effect of capital structure depends on the nature of industry as well as market. In Australia, China, and Korea, return of companies in the Basic Material industry have negative relationship with debt to common equity. Long term debt to common equity positively affects the return of firms in Australia and Korea in the Basic Material industry.

  2. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET RETURNS AND EXCHANGERATES IN EMERGING STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.N. Arshad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract-This paper aims to study the relationship between stock market returns and exchange rates in emerging stock markets including Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia and Philippines. The data is taken from January 2003 to December 2012 using weekly closing indices and separated in two periods; before (2003-2007 and second, after (2008-2012 the financial crisis of 2008. Johansen-Juselius (JJ. Granger causality tests show that unidirectional causality exists between the stock market returns and exchange rates for Thailand before the financial crisis, whilst, for Indonesia and Singapore, the unidirectional causality between the two variables is detected in the period after the financial crisis. Error Correction Model (ECM indicates the existence of long run causality between the two variables for Philippines. This study also finds that most of the emerging stock markets are informationally inefficient.

  3. SKEWNESS IN STOCK RETURNS: EVIDENCE FROM THE BUCHAREST STOCK EXCHANGE DURING 2000 – 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    IULIAN PANAIT

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Our paper investigates the symmetry in stock returns of the 30 most liquid companies traded on Bucharest Stock Exchange during 2000 – 2011 and also the most representative 5 market indices. Our daily data shows that skewness estimates are slightly negative for most indices and individual stocks, but only a few present values significantly different from the characteristics of a normal distribution. We compare our results with skewness estimates for 21 major and emerging stock market indices around the world and find that such results are similar to other low capitalization and trading volume markets. For all the Romanian and international assets studied, the Studentized-Range (St-R and Jarque-Bera (J-B tests reject the hypothesis of normal distribution of daily returns.

  4. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a two-component volatility model based on first moments of both components to describe the dynamics of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and the persistent part of volatility, respectively. The model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock ma...... markets. A positive or risk-premium effect exists between the return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for the return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on returns are tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component is much more important for the volatility dynamic process than is the volatile component. However, the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most...

  5. Pricing Volatility of Stock Returns with Volatile and Persistent Components

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    In this paper a two-component volatility model based on the component's first moment is introduced to describe the dynamic of speculative return volatility. The two components capture the volatile and persistent part of volatility respectively. Then the model is applied to 10 Asia-Pacific stock m......, a positive or risk-premium effect exists between return and the volatile component, yet the persistent component is not significantly priced for return dynamic process....... markets. Their in-mean effects on return are also tested. The empirical results show that the persistent component accounts much more for volatility dynamic process than the volatile component. However the volatile component is found to be a significant pricing factor of asset returns for most markets...

  6. A study on the effect of P/E and PEG ratios on stock returns: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyyed Ali Lajevardi

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the effect of the ratios of P/E and PEG on stock returns of the firms accepted on Tehran Stock Exchange. The study uses regression and Pearson Correlation Coefficient based on the performance of 138 firms over the period 2004- 2009 according to the Iranian calendar to investigate the effects of P/E and PEG on stock returns. The study also uses the models originally proposed by Chahin and Choudhry (2010 [Chahin, S., & Choudhry, T. (2010. Price to earnings, growth radio and value growth based strategies. Social Science Research Network, 19(4.] to discuss the strategies of investing on stocks. The results show that the ratio of P/E had more effect on stock returns than the ratio of PEG and stocks returns had a direct relationship with P/E and an inverse relationship with PEG. In addition, the returns of growth stock were more than value stock.

  7. Modeling the stock price returns volatility using GARCH(1,1) in some Indonesia stock prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awalludin, S. A.; Ulfah, S.; Soro, S.

    2018-01-01

    In the financial field, volatility is one of the key variables to make an appropriate decision. Moreover, modeling volatility is needed in derivative pricing, risk management, and portfolio management. For this reason, this study presented a widely used volatility model so-called GARCH(1,1) for estimating the volatility of daily returns of stock prices of Indonesia from July 2007 to September 2015. The returns can be obtained from stock price by differencing log of the price from one day to the next. Parameters of the model were estimated by Maximum Likelihood Estimation. After obtaining the volatility, natural cubic spline was employed to study the behaviour of the volatility over the period. The result shows that GARCH(1,1) indicate evidence of volatility clustering in the returns of some Indonesia stock prices.

  8. The Effects of Domestic Macroeconomic Determinants on Stock Returns: A Sector Level Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şerife Özlen

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Investment analysis should be carefully performed in stock markets. Therefore, firms take necessary actions according to stock market behavior and macroeconomic variables. Therefore, the predictability of stock market determinants becomes important. This study aims to identify the effects of selected macroeconomic factors (interest rate, exchange rates, inflation-consumer price index, current account deficit, unemployment rates and sector indices on stock returns of selected 48 companies in 11 different sectors of Istanbul Stock Exchange including electric, food, communication, paper, chemistry, metal-main, metal-product, stone, textile, commerce and transportation sectors. The study employs ARDL approach on the period between the second month of 2005 and the second month of 2012 including 85 monthly observations. According to the results, Sector Indices are found to be quite influential through the selected sectors. Exchanges rate is also significantly influential on almost all the sectors except Communication and Textile sectors. The impacts of Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Current Account Deficit, and Unemployment Rate are various through the selected sectors. Moreover, the influence of Istanbul Stock Exchange Market on the stock returns of considered companies is significantly clear through the sectors except six companies (two companies from Paper sector, one company from Metal-Main sector, two companies from Stone sector and one company from Textile sector out of 48 companies. Since it includes a wide range of companies and sectors, this study is expected to be useful for all policy makers and investment decisions.

  9. IMPLIKASI KOMPONEN LAPORAN ARUS KAS, LABA KOTOR, DAN SIZE PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Totok Sasongko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expected return of an investment was the probabilit y rate dist ribut ion on invest -ment returns. Although investors (stockholders did not know exact ly what rate of returnthey would get , they had base on their decisions to invest . Work performance measurementused by stockholders in investment decisions were prof it and cash f low. Besides, investorsalso considered company f inancial characterist ic like company size. The main purpose of thisresearch was to analyze the implicat ion of informat ion cash f low statement , gross prof it ,company size toward expected stock return. Populat ion of this research was manufacturecompanies listed at Jakarta Stock Exchange. The sample was selected by purposive sampling.The analysis data used was a mult i linear regression. The result showed that simultaneously,cash f low component , gross prof it and company size had signif icant ef fect to stock expectedreturns. But part ially, the cash f low f rom operat ion and f inancing didn’t have signif icantef fect to stock expected returns.

  10. The effect of Malaysia general election on stock market returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liew, Venus Khim-Sen; Rowland, Racquel

    2016-01-01

    During the latest episode of general election held in Malaysia, it is observed that the FBMKLCI index was lifted 62.52 points in a day soon after the announcement of election outcome. Moreover, the index registered a highest gain of 96.29 points in the middle of the intra-day trade. This suggests that investors who had got the right direction could make profitable intra-day trading the next trading day of the general election date. Results from statistical analysis uncover significant before-election-effect and after-election-effect from the most recent general elections held in Malaysia. Different subsets of macroeconomic variables are found to have significant role on stock market return depending on the market situation. Remarkably, when there was close fight between the two major political parties during the 2008 and 2013 election years, political uncertainty showed up its negative and significant role in influencing the stock market return. The major implication of these findings is that while investors may seek abnormal returns before and after the next general election, which is around the corner, they will have to pay attention on the influence of macroeconomic variables and political uncertainty on stock market return during the election year.

  11. Consumption Risk and the Cross Section of Expected Returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Jonathan A.; Julliard, Christian

    2005-01-01

    This paper evaluates the central insight of the consumption capital asset pricing model that an asset's expected return is determined by its equilibrium risk to consumption. Rather than measure risk by the contemporaneous covariance of an asset's return and consumption growth, we measure risk by the covariance of an asset's return and consumption…

  12. Robustness of the Risk-Return Relationship in the U.S. Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

    2007-01-01

    In this paper, we study the risk-return relationship in monthly U.S. stock returns (1928:1— 2004:12) using GARCH-in-Mean models. In particular, we consider the robustness of the relationship with respect to the omission of the intercept term in the equation for the expected excess return recently recommended by Lanne and Saikkonen (2006). The existence of the relationship is quite robust, but its estimated strength is dependent on the prior belief concerning the intercept. This is the case in...

  13. Momentum in stock market returns: Implications for risk premia on foreign currencies

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas Nitschka

    2010-01-01

    Momentum in foreign stock market returns is exploitable as signal of currency excess returns. Past stock market winner currencies offer higher returns than past stock market loser currencies. This finding is unrelated to interest rate differentials. Funding liquidity risk explains the time series variation in foreign stock market momentum sorted currency portfolio returns. Their cross-sectional dispersion is hardly rationalized by systematic risk factors in contrast to forward discount and cu...

  14. Stock Price Informativeness and Idiosyncratic Return Volatility in Emerging Markets: Evidence from China

    OpenAIRE

    Karen Jingrong Lin; Khondkar Karim; Clairmont Carter

    2014-01-01

    This study attempts to address two research questions on the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness. First, whether idiosyncratic return volatility is a valid proxy for stock price informativeness in emerging markets, and if it is, whether there exists a monotonic relationship between the idiosyncratic return volatility and stock price informativeness throughout the whole sample. We find that the idiosyncratic return volatility reflects the stock price informativeness...

  15. Estimating the risk-return tradeoff in MENA Stock Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This study employs the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic in the mean (GARCH-M methodology to investigate the return generating process of Jordan, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA, Kuwait, and Morocco stock market indices. The tradeoff between returns and the conditional variance is found to be positive in all markets. In other words, the empirical findings show that investors are rewarded for their exposure to more risk in these financial markets. This result is consistent with both financial theory and empirical finance.

  16. Dynamic structure of stock communities: a comparative study between stock returns and turnover rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Li-Ling; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Li, Sai-Ping; Zhong, Li-Xin; Ren, Fei

    2017-07-01

    The detection of community structure in stock market is of theoretical and practical significance for the study of financial dynamics and portfolio risk estimation. We here study the community structures in Chinese stock markets from the aspects of both price returns and turnover rates, by using a combination of the PMFG and infomap methods based on a distance matrix. An empirical study using the overall data set shows that for both returns and turnover rates the largest communities are composed of specific industrial or conceptional sectors and the correlation inside a sector is generally larger than the correlation between different sectors. However, the community structure for turnover rates is more complex than that for returns, which indicates that the interactions between stocks revealed by turnover rates may contain more information. This conclusion is further confirmed by the analysis of the changes in the dynamics of community structures over five sub-periods. Sectors like banks, real estate, health care and New Shanghai take turns to comprise a few of the largest communities in different sub-periods, and more interestingly several specific sectors appear in the communities with different rank orders for returns and turnover rates even in the same sub-period. To better understand their differences, a comparison between the evolution of the returns and turnover rates of the stocks from these sectors is conducted. We find that stock prices only had large changes around important events while turnover rates surged after each of these events relevant to specific sectors, which shows strong evidence that the turnover rates are more susceptible to exogenous shocks than returns and its measurement for community detection may contain more useful information about market structure.

  17. Bank stock returns, leverage and the business cycle

    OpenAIRE

    Jing Yang; Kostas Tsatsaronis

    2012-01-01

    The returns on bank stocks rise and fall with the business cycle, making bank equity financing cheaper in the boom and dearer during a recession. This provides support for prudential tools that give incentives for banks to build capital buffers at times when the cost of equity is lower. In addition, banks with higher leverage face a higher cost of equity, which suggests that higher capital ratios are associated with lower funding costs.

  18. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  19. Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Iqbal

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum, confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The analysis is extended at individual stock-level using fixed-effect panel regression in which asset growth effect remains significant even with controlling other variables of stock return determinants. This study also explores further whether asset growth can be included as risk factor. Employing two-stage cross-section regression in Fama and Macbeth (1973, the result aligns with some prior studies that asset growth is not a new risk factor; instead the anomaly is driven by mispricing due to investors’ overreaction and psychological bias. This result imply that asset growth anomaly is general phenomenon that can be found at mostly all stock market but in Indonesia market asset growth anomaly rise from investors’ overreaction, instead of  playing as a factor of risk.

  20. Analysis of Asset Growth Anomaly on Cross-Section Stock Returns: Evidence from Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Iqbal

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Assorted types of market anomalies occur when stock prices deviate from the prediction of classical asset pricing theories. This study aims to examine asset growth anomaly where stocks with high asset growth will be followed by low returns in the subsequent periods. This study, using Indonesia Stock Exchanges data, finds that an equally-weighted low-growth portfolio outperforms high-growth portfolio by average 0.75% per month (9% per annum, confirming existence of asset growth anomaly. The analysis is extended at individual stock-level using fixed-effect panel regression in which asset growth effect remains significant even with controlling other variables of stock return determinants. This study also explores further whether asset growth can be included as risk factor. Employing two-stage cross-section regression in Fama and Macbeth (1973, the result aligns with some prior studies that asset growth is not a new risk factor; instead the anomaly is driven by mispricing due to investors’ overreaction and psychological bias. This result imply that asset growth anomaly is general phenomenon that can be found at mostly all stock market but in Indonesia market asset growth anomaly rise from investors’ overreaction, instead of  playing as a factor of risk.

  1. Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David G. McMillan

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the predictability of a range of international stock markets where we allow the presence of both local and global predictive factors. Recent research has argued that US returns have predictive power for international stock returns. We expand this line of research, following work on market integration, to include a more general definition of the global factor, based on principal components analysis. Results identify three global expected returns factors, one related to the major stock markets of the US, UK and Asia and one related to the other markets analysed. The third component is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing the principal components based factors to a US return factor and local market only factors, as well as the historical mean benchmark finds supportive evidence for the former approach. It is hoped that the results from this paper will be informative on three counts. First, to academics interested in understanding the dynamics asset price movement. Second, to market participants who aim to time the market and engage in portfolio and risk management. Third, to those (policy makers and others who are interested in linkages across international markets and the nature and degree of integration.

  2. Relationship between Gold and Oil Prices and Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Mansoor Baig

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available This study objective to examine the relationship between gold prices, oil prices and KSE100 return. This study important for the investor whose want to invest in real assets and financial assets. This study helps investor to achieve the portfolio diversification. This study uses the monthly data of gold prices, KSE100, and oil prices for the period of 2000 to 2010 (monthly. This study applied Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller test Phillip Perron test, Johansen and Jelseluis Co-integration test, Variance Decomposition test to find relationship. This study concludes that Gold prices growth, Oil prices growth and KSE100 return have no significant relationship in the long run. This study provides information to the investors who want to get the benefit of diversification by investing in Gold, Oil and stock market. In the current era Gold prices and oil prices are fluctuating day by day and investors think that stock returns may or may not affected by these fluctuations. This study is unique because it focuses on current issues and takes the current data in this research to help the investment institutions or portfolio managers.

  3. The Smoothing Hypothesis, Stock Returns and Risk in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lopo Martinez

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Income smoothing is defined as the deliberate normalization of income in order to reach a desired trend. If the smoothing causes more information to be reflected in the stock price, it is likely to improve the allocation of resources and can be a critical factor in investment decisions. This study aims to build metrics to determine the degree of smoothing in Brazilian public companies, to classify them as smoothing and non-smoothing companies and additionally to present evidence on the long-term relationship between the smoothing hypothesis and stock return and risk. Using the Economatica and CVM databases, this study focuses on 145 companies in the period 1998-2007. We find that Brazilian smoothers have a smaller degree of systemic risk than non-smoothers. In average terms, the beta of smoothers is significantly lower than non-smoothers. Regarding return, we find that the abnormal annualized returns of smoothers are significantly higher. We confirm differences in the groups by nonparametric and parametric tests in cross section or as time series, indicating that there is a statistically significant difference in performance in the Brazilian market between firms that do and do not engage in smoothing.

  4. Study on Return and Volatility Spillover Effects among Stock, CDS, and Foreign Exchange Markets in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taly I

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The key objective of this study is to investigate the return and volatility spillover effects among stock market, credit default swap (CDS market and foreign exchange market for three countries: Korea, the US and Japan. Using the trivariate VAR BEKK GARCH (1,1 model, the study finds that there are significant return and volatility spillover effects between the Korean CDS market and the Korean stock market. In addition, the return spillover effects from foreign exchange markets and the US stock market to the Korean stock market, and the volatility spillover effect from the Japanese stock market to the Korean stock market are both significant.

  5. Sector Identification in a Set of Stock Return Time Series Traded at the London Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coronnello, C.; Tumminello, M.; Lillo, F.; Micciche, S.; Mantegna, R. N.

    2005-09-01

    We compare some methods recently used in the literature to detect the existence of a certain degree of common behavior of stock returns belonging to the same economic sector. Specifically, we discuss methods based on random matrix theory and hierarchical clustering techniques. We apply these methods to a portfolio of stocks traded at the London Stock Exchange. The investigated time series are recorded both at a daily time horizon and at a 5-minute time horizon. The correlation coefficient matrix is very different at different time horizons confirming that more structured correlation coefficient matrices are observed for long time horizons. All the considered methods are able to detect economic information and the presence of clusters characterized by the economic sector of stocks. However, different methods present a different degree of sensitivity with respect to different sectors. Our comparative analysis suggests that the application of just a single method could not be able to extract all the economic information present in the correlation coefficient matrix of a stock portfolio.

  6. Stock return, seasonality and asymmetric conditional volatility in steel & iron subsector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Chirila

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results obtained following the testing of five hypotheses regarding conditional return and volatility of the most listed European stocks in the steel & iron subsector. The following elements of the stocks are analysed: time variation of volatility, seasonality of return and volatility, relationship between return and volatility and volatility asymmetry. The results obtained confirm for all the analyzed stocks the existence of volatility variation in time, the lack of correlation between return and volatility, the existence of asymmetry phenomenon of volatility and the presence in some stocks of the seasonality effect both for return and volatility.

  7. QR-GARCH-M Model for Risk-Return Tradeoff in U.S. Stock Returns and Business Cycles

    OpenAIRE

    Nyberg, Henri

    2010-01-01

    In the empirical finance literature findings on the risk return tradeoff in excess stock market returns are ambiguous. In this study, we develop a new QR-GARCH-M model combining a probit model for a binary business cycle indicator and a regime switching GARCH-in-mean model for excess stock market return with the business cycle indicator defining the regime. Estimation results show that there is statistically significant variation in the U.S. excess stock returns over the business cycle. Howev...

  8. Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Hussey; Omari H. Swinton

    2011-01-01

    Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distributio...

  9. The Determinant Factors Of Sectoral Stock Return In Bullish And Bearish Condition At Indonesian Capital Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defrizal

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract this study aims to explain determinant factors of sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition at Indonesian capital market. This study used a multi-factor asset pricing model with sectoral stock return as the dependent variable and stock market return interest rates and exchange rate as independent variables. The Identification of stock market condition by using a Markov Switching Models which are also used as the basis for segmenting the data into bullish and bearish conditions. Estimates of the model used the robust least square method. This study used data from Indonesian Stock Exchange to the observation period from January 1996 to December 2013. The results of this study were 1 simultaneously stock market return interest rates and exchange rate affected the sectoral stock return in bullish and bearish condition. 2 Partially the stock market return positively effect and is as a main factor in determining the sectoral stock return in all industries in either bullish condition or bearish condition while the effect of the interest rates and exchange rate do not consistently affect the sectoral stock return in different industries and market conditions.

  10. Effects of daylight-saving time changes on stock market returns and stock market volatility: rebuttal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamstra, Mark J; Kramer, Lisa A; Levi, Maurice D

    2013-02-01

    In a 2011 reply to our 2010 comment in this journal, Berument and Dogen maintained their challenge to the existence of the negative daylight-saving effect in stock returns reported by Kamstra, Kramer, and Levi in 2000. Unfortunately, in their reply, Berument and Dogen ignored all of the points raised in the comment, failing even to cite the Kamstra, et al. comment. Berument and Dogen continued to use inappropriate estimation techniques, over-parameterized models, and low-power tests and perhaps most surprisingly even failed to replicate results they themselves reported in their previous paper, written by Berument, Dogen, and Onar in 2010. The findings reported by Berument and Dogen, as well as by Berument, Dogen, and Onar, are neither well-supported nor well-reasoned. We maintain our original objections to their analysis, highlight new serious empirical and theoretical problems, and emphasize that there remains statistically significant evidence of an economically large negative daylight-saving effect in U.S. stock returns. The issues raised in this rebuttal extend beyond the daylight-saving effect itself, touching on methodological points that arise more generally when deciding how to model financial returns data.

  11. Pengaruh Beta Saham Terhadap Expected Return Dengan Model Capital Asset Pricing Pada Perusahaan Publik Di Bursa Efek Jakarta

    OpenAIRE

    Nasser, Etty M

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this research is to obtain empirical evidence of whether market beta has a significant influence on the expected return. This research examines 30 manufacturing companies listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange during 2001-2005 period. Data are mostly secondary data, obtained from Indonesian Capita! Market Directory and annual reports of the companies from 'Pusat Referensi Pasar Modal Indonesia' in Jakarta Stock Exchange. The statistical method used to test the hypothesis is multipl...

  12. PENGARUH BETA SAHAM TERHADAP EXPECTED RETURN DENGAN MODEL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING PADA PERUSAHAAN PUBLIK DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA

    OpenAIRE

    Etty M. Nasser

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this research is to obtain empirical evidence of whether market beta has a significant influence on the expected return. This research examines 30 manufacturing companies listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange during 2001-2005 period. Data are mostly secondary data, obtained from Indonesian Capita! Market Directory and annual reports of the companies from 'Pusat Referensi Pasar Modal Indonesia' in Jakarta Stock Exchange. The statistical method used to test the hypothesis is multipl...

  13. PENGARUH EARNINGS, OPERATING CASH FLOW DAN ASSET GROWTH TERHADAP STOCK RETURN PERUSAHAAN YANG TERDAFTAR PADA INDEKS LQ 45 UNTUK PERIODE 2009-2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulius ,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this research is to test the impact of earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth to firm’s stock return which listed in LQ 45 index in Indonesian for 2009-2011. The result of this research is earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth have not significant effect to stock return both when those variabels is tested separately or silmutaneously. This result show that earnings, operating cash flow and asset growth are not only the one to be the basis of consideration for investor to make investment to get the stock return. Therefore, for making investment, investor should consider other factors which effect the firm’s stock return as macro economics and politics. Furthermore, from this result, be expected an improvement of quality financial statement which addopted IFRS. Keyword: Earnings, Operating Cash Flow, Asset Growth, Stock Return.

  14. Unemployment, Investment and Global Expected Returns: A Panel FAVAR Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Ron Smith; Gylfi Zoega

    2005-01-01

    We consider the hypothesis that a common factor, global expected returns, drives unemployment and investment in 21 OECD countries over the period 1960-2002. We investigate this hypothesis using a panel-factor augmented-vector autoregression (FAVAR). We first estimate the common factors of unemployment and investment by principal components and show that the first principal component of unemployment is almost identical to that of investment and that they both show the pattern one would expect ...

  15. Do MENA stock market returns follow a random walk process?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salim Lahmiri

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this research, three variance ratio tests: the standard variance ratio test, the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test, and the non-parametric rank scores test are adopted to test the random walk hypothesis (RWH of stock markets in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region using most recent data from January 2010 to September 2012. The empirical results obtained by all three econometric tests show that the RWH is strongly rejected for Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco. However, the standard variance ratio test and the wild bootstrap multiple variance ratio test reject the null hypothesis of random walk in Jordan and KSA, while non-parametric rank scores test do not. We may conclude that Jordan and KSA stock market are weak efficient. In sum, the empirical results suggest that return series in Kuwait, Tunisia, and Morocco are predictable. In other words, predictable patterns that can be exploited in these markets still exit. Therefore, investors may make profits in such less efficient markets.

  16. Accounting for Institutional Variation in Expected Returns to Higher Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorius, Shawn F.; Tandberg, David A.; Cram, Bridgette

    2017-01-01

    This study leverages human capital theory to identify the correlates of expected returns on investment in higher education at the level of institutions. We leverage estimates of average ROI in post-secondary education among more than 400 baccalaureate degree conferring colleges and universities to understand the correlates of a relatively new…

  17. EFFECT OF INVESTOR SENTIMENT ON FUTURE RETURNS IN THE NIGERIAN STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udoka Bernard Alajekwu

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the effect of investor sentiment on future returns in the Nigerian stock market. The OLS regression and granger causality techniques were employed for data analyses. The results showed that (1 investor sentiment has a significant positive effect on stock market returns even after control for fundamentals such as Industrial production index, consumer price index and Treasury bill rate; (2 there is a uni-directional causality that runs from change in investor sentiment (ΔCCI to stock market returns (Rm. Derived finding showed that the inclusion of fundamentals increased the explanatory power of investor sentiment from 3.96% to 33.05%, though at both level, investor sentiment (ΔCCI has low explanatory power on stock market returns. The study posits existence of a dynamic relationship between investor sentiment and the behaviour of stock future returns in Nigeria such that higher sentiment concurrently leads to higher stock prices.

  18. Factors Affecting the Return Stock Company in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX LQ45 in Years 2012-2015

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    Fangki A. Sorongan

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This research aimed to determine the effect of partially and jointly independent variable of Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM against the dependent variable on the stock return. Objects of this research were companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI LQ45 continuously for four years in the period 2012-2015. Companies that qualify for this research were 28 companies. Based on this research, the conclusions indicate that all four independent variables; Debt to Equity Ratio (DER, Return on Equity (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, and Net Profit Margin (NPM, either jointly or partially give the significant effect on return stock.

  19. Multiscale Analysis of the Predictability of Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Fiedor

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Due to the strong complexity of financial markets, economics does not have a unified theory of price formation in financial markets. The most common assumption is the Efficient-Market Hypothesis, which has been attacked by a number of researchers, using different tools. There were varying degrees to which these tools complied with the formal definitions of efficiency and predictability. In our earlier work, we analysed the predictability of stock returns at two time scales using the entropy rate, which can be directly linked to the mathematical definition of predictability. Nonetheless, none of the above-mentioned studies allow any general understanding of how the financial markets work, beyond disproving the Efficient-Market Hypothesis. In our previous study, we proposed the Maximum Entropy Production Principle, which uses the entropy rate to create a general principle underlying the price formation processes. Both of these studies show that the predictability of price changes is higher at the transaction level intraday scale than the scale of daily returns, but ignore all scales in between. In this study we extend these ideas using the multiscale entropy analysis framework to enhance our understanding of the predictability of price formation processes at various time scales.

  20. An Empirical Analysis Of Stock Returns And Volatility: The Case Of Stock Markets From Central And Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Okičić Jasmina

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The main goal of this paper is to investigate the behaviour of stock returns in the case of stock markets from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE, focusing on the relationship between returns and conditional volatility. Since there is relatively little empirical research on the volatility of stock returns in underdeveloped stock markets, with even fewer studies on markets in the transitional economies of the CEE region, this paper is designed to shed some light on the econometric modelling of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns from this region. The results presented in this paper provide confirmatory evidence that ARIMA and GARCH processes provide parsimonious approximations of mean and volatility dynamics in the case of the selected stock markets. There is overwhelming evidence corroborating the existence of a leverage effect, meaning that negative shocks increase volatility more than positive shocks do. Since financial decisions are generally based upon the trade-off between risk and return, the results presented in this paper will provide valuable information in decision making for those who are planning to invest in stock markets from the CEE region.

  1. PENGARUH STOCK SPLIT TERHADAP LIKUIDITAS DAN RETURN SAHAM DI BURSA EFEK JAKARTA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Sutrisno

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Research on stock splits has frequently been undertaken. The results vary, but fundamentally can be classified into two groups. First, the stock split is purely "cosmetic". Second, the stock split has a real effect on stocks. The difference between these opinions raises controversy. The purpose of this study is to examine whether stock splits influence stock liquidity and return of an individual stock as well as in a group of stocks as a portfolio. Overall, the results of this study show that stock splits did influence stock price, trading volume and bid-ask spread but did not influence stock risk and abnormal return from the point of view of an individual stock as well as in a group of stocks as a portfolio. The test of a relationship between bid-ask spread and stock price, trading volume and stock risk for each stock shows that all three variable did not significantly affect the bid-ask spread. On the other hand, the test of a relationship in a portfolio reveals that only stock prices significantly affect the bid-ask spread. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Penelitian mengenai stock split sudah sering dilakukan. Hasil dari penelitian- penelitian tersebut bermacam - macam, tetapi pada dasarnya dapat dibedakan menjadi dua kelompok. Pertama, stock split dinyatakan murni hanya sebagai "kosmetik". Kedua, stock split dinyatakan mempunyai efek yang nyata terhadap saham. Perbedaan pendapat ini sering menimbulkan kontroversi. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menguji kembali apakah betul stock split dapat mempengaruhi likuiditas dan return saham baik ditinjau secara individual untuk masing - masing saham maupun seluruh saham sebagai sebuah portofolio. Secara keseluruhan, hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa stock split hanya mempengaruhi harga, volume perdagangan dan persentase spread, tetapi tidak mempengaruhi varians dan abnormal return baik ditinjau secara individual maupun sebagai sebuah portofolio. Sedangkan pengujian hubungan antara

  2. Factors Affecting Stock Returns of Firms Quoted in ISE Market: A Dynamic Panel Data Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Şebnem Er

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Several studies, explaining the factors affecting stock returns, have been published both in developed and developing countries. In many of these papers, either cross-sectional or time series methods have been applied. In this study, Dynamic Panel Data Analysis Methods have been conducted to explain the factors affecting stock returns of 64 manufacturing firms that are continuously quoted in ISE during the period of 2003-2007. The results indicate that stock performance, financial structure, activity and profitability ratios can be used to explain the stock returns as well as the oil prices, economic growth, exchange rate, interest rate, and money supply.

  3. Empirical Essays on the Stock Returns, Risk Management, and Liquidity Creation of Banks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y. Xu (Ying)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis thesis consists of three studies that respectively investigate the stock returns, risk management, and liquidity creation of banks. Chapter 2 focuses on the cross-section of bank stock returns and found that pricing factors such as leverage and beta, shown to be irrelevant to

  4. Revisiting the investor sentiment-stock returns relationship: A multi-scale perspective using wavelets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lao, Jiashun; Nie, He; Jiang, Yonghong

    2018-06-01

    This paper employs SBW proposed by Baker and Wurgler (2006) to investigate the nonlinear asymmetric Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for US economy while considering different time-scales. The wavelet method is utilized to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different time-scales to focus on the local analysis of different time horizons of investors. The linear and nonlinear asymmetric Granger methods are employed to examine the Granger causal relationship on similar time-scales. We find evidence of strong bilateral linear and nonlinear asymmetric Granger causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. Furthermore, we observe the positive nonlinear causal relationship from stock returns to investor sentiment and the negative nonlinear causal relationship from investor sentiment to stock returns.

  5. Models of expected returns on the brazilian market: Empirical tests using predictive methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mussa

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Predictive methodologies for test of the expected returns models are largely diffused on the international academic environment. However, these methods have not been used in Brazil in a systematic way. Generally, empirical studies proceeded with Brazilian stock market data are concentrated only in the first step of these methodologies. The purpose of this article was test and compare the models CAPM, 3-factors and 4-factors using a predictive methodology, considering two steps – temporal and cross-section regressions – with standard errors obtained by the techniques of Fama and Macbeth (1973. The results indicated the superiority of the 4-fators model as compared to the 3-fators model, and the superiority of the 3- factors model as compared to the CAPM, but no one of the tested models were enough on the explanation of the Brazilian stock returns. Contrary to some empirical evidences, that do not use predictive methodology, the size and momentum effect seem do not exist on the Brazilian capital markets, but there are evidences of the value effect and the relevance of the market for explanation of expected returns. These finds rise some questions, mainly caused by the originality of the methodology on the local market and by the fact that this subject is still incipient and polemic on the Brazilian academic environment.

  6. Investigating the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Akbar Farzinfar

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the relationship between auditor’s opinion and stock return in the companies listed at Tehran stock exchange market. In this study, all required data are collected from aware shareholders and provide a sampling of 130 questionnaires, the data collected over the period 2010-2011 using test methods such as computer software, data analysis and statistical methods to answer research questions. According to research result through questionnaires and tests, there is a significant relationship between stock returns and the auditor's opinion, in fact, for aware shareholders of the company the auditor’s opinion has a special message. This message is based on the results of study hypothesis in comparison with previous research with regard to changes in the questionnaire and provides assumptions that are more detailed. The first finding is that unqualified audit report has a positive impact on stock returns of companies with a medium to low degree. Adverse audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Disclaimer of audit report has a negative impact on stock returns of companies with medium to high degree. Finally, qualifying paragraphs, which modified the items of income statement items have more impact in comparison with qualifying paragraphs which modified the Balance Sheet items.

  7. The Time-Varying Risk and Return Trade Off in Indian Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Mohanty, Roshni; P, Srinivasan

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigates the relationship between stock market returns and volatility in the Indian stock markets using AR(1)-EGARCH(p, q)-in-Mean model. The study considers daily closing prices of two major indexes of Indian stock exchanges, viz., S&P CNX NIFTY and the BSE-SENSEX of National Stock Exchange (NSE) and Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE), respectively for the period from July 1, 1997 to December 31, 2013. The empirical results show positive but insignificant relationship between stock r...

  8. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Stock Market Games.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagan, Gary; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Maintains that stock market games are designed to provide students with a background for investing in securities, especially stocks. Reviews two games used with secondary students, analyzes statistical data from these experiences, and considers weaknesses in the games. (CFR)

  9. Monetary Policy Shocks and Stock Returns Reactions: Evidence ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SIPHAMBE, H.K. (PROF.)

    context is useful to both monetary authorities and investors. ... they should target stock prices or use stock price information as indicators of the monetary ... current account transactions, with remaining controls on the capital account eliminated ...

  10. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irshad Hira

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  11. Relationship Among Political Instability, Stock Market Returns and Stock Market Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Irshad Hira

    2017-01-01

    This study investigated the relationship of political instability with the stock prices. Results of the study indicated the negative relationship of stock prices with political instability. Moreover, results of suggested that instable political system ultimately leads decline in stock prices. Inflation has shown negative relationship with stock prices whereas, industrial production and Exports have positive relationship with stock prices.

  12. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  13. Empirical Evidence on Student-t Log-Returns of Diversified World Stock Indices

    OpenAIRE

    Eckhard Platen; Renata Rendek

    2007-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to document some empirical facts related to log-returns of diversified world stock indices when these are denominated in different currencies. Motivated by earlier results, we have obtained the estimated distribution of log-returns for a range of world stock indices over long observation periods. We expand previous studies by applying the maximum likelihood ratio test to the large class of generalized hyperbolic distributions, and investigate the log-returns of a vari...

  14. The time-varying correlation between policy uncertainty and stock returns: Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Bian, Yuxiang; Shen, Dehua

    2018-06-01

    In this paper, we use a new policy uncertainty index to investigate the time-varying correlation between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) and Chinese stock market returns. The correlation is examined in the period from January 1995 to December 2016. We show that absolute changes in EPU have a significant impact on stock market returns. Specifically, empirical results based on the DCC-GARCH model reveal that the correlation between EPU and stock returns has large fluctuations, especially during a financial crisis; in addition, the impact of EPU on the Shanghai stock market is greater than on the Shenzhen stock market. Robustness results reveal that the impact of EPU on state-owned enterprises is larger than on non-state enterprises. All of these results highlight the important role of EPU in the Chinese stock market, and shed light on such issues for future research.

  15. Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries

    OpenAIRE

    Walid Chkili; Duc Khuong Nguyen

    2014-01-01

    We use a regime-switching model approach to investigate the dynamic linkages between the exchange rates and stock market returns for the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). The univariate analysis indicates that stock returns

  16. Ratio K: a New Way of Metering and Evaluating the Risk and Return of Stock Investment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱淑珍; 朱静怡

    2003-01-01

    Although widely used, both the Markowitz model and VAR (Value at Risk) model have some limitations in evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent.By the analysis of the conceptions of risk and return,together with the three hypotheses of technological analysis, a novelty model of metering and evaluating the risk and return of stock investnent is established.The major indicator of this model , risk-return ratio K, combines the characteristic indicators of risk and return. Regardless of the form of the risk-return probability density functions, this indicator K can always reflect the risk-return performances of the invested stocks clearly and accurately. How to use the model to make optimum investment and how to make portfolio combined with clustering analysis is also explained.

  17. On the Risk-Return Tradeoff in the Stock Exchange of Thailand: New Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Jiranyakul, Komain

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides new evidence on the positive risk-return tradeoff in the Thai stock market using monthly data. An AR(p)-GARCH-in-mean model is applied to the data from January 1981 to December 2009. Since stock prices and dividend series are not cointegrated, the excess returns are separately calculated as capital gain and dividend excess returns. By incorporating the dummy variables that capture the impact of the 1987 global stock market crash and the Asian 1997 financial crisis in th...

  18. The Determinants of Stock Market Returns: An ARDL Investigation on Borsa Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sevinç Güler

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine the long run and the short run dynamics of stock return and macroeconomic and financial variables like gold prices, oil prices, export volume, import volume and exchange rate. The empirical investigation employed on monthly data between January 1988 to November 2013. The Autoregressive Distrubuted Lag (ARDL called analytical-cointegration technique is applied to capture the dynamics of short-run and long-run relationship between veriables. According to results we found a long run relationship between stock return and economic factors and existence of significant relationship between import and stock return in long run and short run models

  19. Evaluation of different estimating techniques to generate best possible total return on investing on individual stocks on Oslo Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Larikka, Jyri Egil

    2010-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance My intension with this thesis is to present three different kinds of models to analyze stock market and to find good buy candidates. They use different methodology as the first is using pair-trading, the second is using technical analysis and the third is using regression analysis. The first model uses momentum strategy and adaptive market hypothesis in a pair trading context to dynamically generate good pairs of stocks based on their log return and correlatio...

  20. The Asymmetric Impulse of the Sunshine Effect on Stock Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan-Ming Lee; Kuan-Min Wang

    2010-01-01

    This study constructs a variety of GARCH models with the consideration of the generalized error distribution to analyze the relationship between the cloud cover and stock returns in Taiwan in the whole sample period (1986 to 2007) and in the two sub-sample periods (1986 to 1996 and 1997 to 2007). The data include Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index and the U.S. Dow Jones Industrial Average index to proxy the impact of U.S. stock market on Taiwan’s stock market performanc...

  1. The impact of macroeconomic and conventional stock market variables on Islamic index returns under regime switching

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slah Bahloul

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of conventional stock market return and volatility and various macroeconomic variables (including inflation rate, short-term interest rate, the slope of the yield curve and money supply on Islamic stock markets returns for twenty developed and emerging markets using Markov switching regression models. The empirical results for the period 2002–2014 show that both developed and emerging Islamic stock indices are influenced by conventional stock indices returns and money supply for both the low and high volatility regimes. However, the other macroeconomic variables fail to explain the dynamics of Islamic stock indices especially in the high volatility regime. Similar conclusions are obtained by using the MS-VAR model.

  2. On fractality and chaos in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine existence of fractality and chaos in returns and volatilities of family business companies listed on the Casablanca Stock Exchange (CSE) in Morocco, and also in returns and volatility of the CSE market index. Detrended fluctuation analysis based Hurst exponent and fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH) model are used to quantify fractality in returns and volatility time series respectively. Besides, the largest Lyapunov exponent is employed to quantify chaos in both time series. The empirical results from sixteen family business companies follow. For return series, fractality analysis show that most of family business returns listed on CSE exhibit anti-persistent dynamics, whilst market returns have persistent dynamics. Besides, chaos tests show that business family stock returns are not chaotic while market returns exhibit evidence of chaotic behaviour. For volatility series, fractality analysis shows that most of family business stocks and market index exhibit long memory in volatility. Furthermore, results from chaos tests show that volatility of family business returns is not chaotic, whilst volatility of market index is chaotic. These results may help understanding irregularities patterns in Moroccan family business stock returns and volatility, and how they are different from market dynamics.

  3. The Effects of Asset Management and Profitability on Stock Returns: A Comparative Study between Conventional and Islamic Stock Markets in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shelly Midesia

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at empirically examining whether there are differences in stock returns between conventional and Islamic stock returns In Indonesia for the period 2010-2013. This study also attempts to explore the effect of asset management and profitability both stock returns in Indonesia. Annual pooled data gathered from the annual financial reports of 100 conventional and Islamic stock returns, which were published by the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2013 were used and analyzed by using the independent t-test and panel multivariate regression analysis. The result shows that there was no difference in stock returns between the conventional and Islamic stock markets. Additionally, the study documents that only profitability, which is measured by market ratio, was found to have an influence on the conventional stock markets. Meanwhile, as for Islamic stock market, only management of assets was found to have a significant effect on the stock return. These findings imply that investors who are investing in both Islamic and conventional markets would gain similar returns. However, in predicting and stabilizing the stock markets, both investors and policy makers should focus on the profitability for the conventional and management of assets for the Islamic stock market.

  4. The Response of Australian Stock, Foreign Exchange and Bond Markets to Foreign Asset Returns and Volatilities

    OpenAIRE

    Paul D. McNelis

    1993-01-01

    This paper is a data-analytic study of the relationships among international asset price volatilities and the time-varying correlations of asset returns in a small open economy (Australia) with international asset returns. Making use of recent developments in time-series approaches to volatility estimation, impulse response functions, variance decomposition, and Kalman filtering, I show that the Australian stock market volatility is most closely linked with volatility in the UK stock market, ...

  5. How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

    OpenAIRE

    Jozef Baruník

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the author applies neural networks as nonparametric and nonlinear methods to Central European (Czech, Polish, Hungarian, and German) stock market returns modeling. In the first part, he presents the intuition of neural networks and also discusses statistical methods for comparing predictive accuracy, as well as economic significance measures. In the empirical tests, he uses data on the daily and weekly returns of the PX-50, BUX, WIG, and DAX stock exchange indices for the 2000–...

  6. the mauritius stock exchange: sectoral analysis, risk and return

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    cistvr

    In Section III beta estimates are calculated for each share using the Capital. Asset Pricing ... In a stock market therefore, investors would need information such as the ..... In Mauritius however, capital account restrictions were lifted only in 1995 ...

  7. Corporate campaign contributions and abnormal stock returns after presidential elections

    OpenAIRE

    Juergen Huber; Michael Kirchler

    2008-01-01

    In the U.S. campaign contributions by companies play a major role in financing election campaigns. We analyze contributions by companies before an election and stock market performance after the election for the presidential elections from 1992 until 2004. We find that (i) the percentage of contributions given to the winner in a presidential election and (ii) the total contribution (divided by market capitalization) have a significant positive impact on a company's stock market performance af...

  8. Sign realized jump risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Evidence from China's stock market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chao, Youcong; Liu, Xiaoqun; Guo, Shijun

    2017-01-01

    Using 5-minute high frequency data from the Chinese stock market, we employ a non-parametric method to estimate Fama-French portfolio realized jumps and investigate whether the estimated positive, negative and sign realized jumps could forecast or explain the cross-sectional stock returns. The Fama-MacBeth regression results show that not only have the realized jump components and the continuous volatility been compensated with risk premium, but also that the negative jump risk, the positive jump risk and the sign jump risk, to some extent, could explain the return of the stock portfolios. Therefore, we should pay high attention to the downside tail risk and the upside tail risk.

  9. Investor sentiment and stock returns: Evidence from provincial TV audience rating in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongjie; Zhang, Yuzhao; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we advocate the provincial TV audience rating as the novel proxy for the provincial investor sentiment (PIS) and investigate its relation with stock returns. The empirical results firstly show that the PIS is positively related to stock returns. Secondly, we provide direct evidence on the existence of home bias in China by observing that the provincial correlation coefficient is significantly larger than the cross-provincial correlation coefficient. Finally, the PIS can explain a large proportion of provincial comovement. To sum up, all these findings support the role of the non-traditional information sources in understanding the ;anomalies; in stock market.

  10. The Effect of Central Bank Policy Decisions on Stock Market Returns in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrés A. Acuña

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the stock-market response to monetary policy decisions made by the Central Bank of Chile.  We use a methodology designed for the study of low frequency events and monthly data from September 2001 to December 2013 to estimate the effect of anticipated and unanticipated changes in the Chilean monetary policy interest rate on stock returns.  In contrast to the research findings in the literature for the U.S., we find no evidence that monetary surprises affect Chilean stock returns.

  11. Returns Effect, Shocks and Volatility Transmission between Foreign Exchange-Stock Markets in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agya Atabani Adi

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper examined effect of passed return on current return, shocks spillover and volatility transmission between FX-Stock markets. Using result obtained from VAR-GARCH models, we also calculate the optimal weight and risk minimizing hedging ratio for FX-Stock markets and employed the newly developed bivariate GARCH framework Findings reveal evidence of short term predictability in both markets through time. One period lagged returns significantly impact current return in both markets, and impact was greater in FX market both VAR-GARCH and VAR-AGARCH models. There were evidence of bi-directional volatility transmission in both markets and uni-directional shocks spillover from stock to FX market in both models. VAR-AGARCH model showed evidence of leverage effect; bad news has more impact on volatility than positive news of the same magnitude. We showed that optimal polio of FX-Stock market should holds more foreign exchange to stocks in their asset polio. Our result showed evidence of effective hedging in FX-Stock markets in Nigerian. Hence, the inclusion of stocks in diversified polio of foreign exchange could improve it risks adjusted performance of hedging ratio.

  12. Return and volatility transmission between gold and stock sectors: Application of portfolio management and hedging effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilip Kumar

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the first and second orders moment transmission between gold and Indian industrial sectors with an application of portfolio design and hedging effectiveness using generalised VAR-ADCC-BVGARCH model. Our findings indicate unidirectional significant return spillover from gold to stock sectors. The negative values of estimated time varying conditional correlations are mainly observed during periods of market turbulence and crisis indicating the scope of portfolio diversification and hedging during these periods. We also estimate optimal weights, hedge ratios, and hedging effectiveness for the stock-gold portfolios. Our findings suggest that stock-gold portfolio provides better diversification benefits than stock portfolios.

  13. Evidence of Macroeconomic Policy Effects over Company-Sector Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mara Madaleno

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Given that stock markets may act as an economy mirror, it is explored the sensitivity of company-sector-specific stock returns to macroeconomic news reflecting different economic environments for the UK, US, Germany, Japan and Australian markets between March 1993 and February 2013 using monthly data. Results seem to indicate that portfolio investors need to be aware that movements in the market index is the best predictor to forecast stock returns of individual companies and sectors in developed economies. Sentiment influences individual company’s returns of the utilities sector, even if these are considered of limited growth and stable earnings, for UK, USA and Australia, turning investor confidence a relevant variable to be included. Information increases about industrial production have no influence on company and sector stocks, thus not affecting investor’s decision in developed countries. As for Japan, results seem to indicate that the higher the need of oil imports of a country, the higher will be the positive impact of oil price changes over company returns. Finally, the riskless interest rate has no effect on sector stock returns independently of the country under analysis. For developed economies, we confirm the finding that stocks cannot be used as a hedge against inflation.

  14. The effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings and stock returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehri Akhavi Babi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to investigate the effects of financial risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The statistical population of the study consisted of the companies accepted by Tehran Stock Exchange. According to the conditions for sampling, 65 companies were selected during a period of six years from 2008 to 2013 (i.e., 390 fiscal years, and four hypotheses were set forth to achieve the purposes of the study. The first hypothesis tried to assess the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The second, third, and fourth hypotheses investigated the significance of the effects of three financial risks, namely liquidity, credit, and solvency risks on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. The hypotheses of the study were tested using linear and multiple regressions. The findings of the study indicated that there was a positive and significant relationship between earnings per share and stock returns. In addition, the results proved that the credit and solvency risks had negative and significant effects on the relationship between earnings per share and stock returns, but the effect of liquidity risk on this relationship was not significant.

  15. Are Stock and Corporate Bond Markets Integrated?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Zundert, J.; Driessen, Joost

    2017-01-01

    This study explores the cross-sectional integration of stock and corporate bond markets by comparing a firm’s expected stock return, as implied by corporate bond spreads, to its realized stock return. We compute expected corporate bond returns by correcting credit spreads for expected losses due to

  16. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  17. PENERAPAN MODEL ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY DENGAN PENDEKATAN VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION DALAM MENGESTIMASI EXPECTED RETURN SAHAM (Studi Kasus: Saham-Saham Kompas100 Periode 2010-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    VIAN RISKA AYUNING TYAS

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT is an alternative model to estimate the price of securities based of arbitrage concept. In APT, the returns of securities are affected by several factors. This research is aimed to estimate the expected returns of securities using APT model and Vector Autoregressive model. There are ten stocks incorporated in Kompas100 index and four macroeconomic variables, these are inflation, exchange rates, the amountof circulate money (JUB, and theinterest rateof Bank Indonesia(SBI are applied in this research. The first step in using VAR is to test the stationary of the data using colerogram and the results indicate that all data are stationary. The second step is to select the optimal lag based on the smallest value of AIC. The Granger causality test shows that the LPKR stock is affected by the inflation and the exchange rate while the nine other stocks do not show the existence of the expected causality. The results of causality test are then estimated by the VAR models in order to obtain expected returnof macroeconomic factors. The expected return of macroeconomic factors obtained is used in the APT model, then the expected return stock LPKR is calculated. It shows that the expected return of LPKR is 3,340%

  18. The Tail Exponent for Stock Returns in Bursa Malaysia for 2003-2008

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rusli, N. H.; Gopir, G.; Usang, M. D.

    2010-07-01

    A developed discipline of econophysics that has been introduced is exhibiting the application of mathematical tools that are usually applied to the physical models for the study of financial models. In this study, an analysis of the time series behavior of several blue chip and penny stock companies in Main Market of Bursa Malaysia has been performed. Generally, the basic quantity being used is the relative price changes or is called the stock price returns, contains daily-sampled data from the beginning of 2003 until the end of 2008, containing 1555 trading days recorded. The aim of this paper is to investigate the tail exponent in tails of the distribution for blue chip stocks and penny stocks financial returns in six years period. By using a standard regression method, it is found that the distribution performed double scaling on the log-log plot of the cumulative probability of the normalized returns. Thus we calculate α for a small scale return as well as large scale return. Based on the result obtained, it is found that the power-law behavior for the probability density functions of the stock price absolute returns P(z)˜z-α with values lying inside and outside the Lévy stable regime with values α>2. All the results were discussed in detail.

  19. The Economic Value of Predicting Stock Index Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquering, W.; Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, we analyze the economic value of predicting index returns as well as volatility. On the basis of fairly simple linear models, estimated recursively, we produce genuine out-of-sample forecasts for the return on the S&P 500 index and its volatility. Using monthly data from 1954-1998, we

  20. Impact of the spatial structure on the returns of the stock indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos A. Díaz Contreras

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, economies are integrated in commercial, financial, social, and cultural terms. Integration facilitates the transmission of impacts associated with economic events originated in one region to other regions, generating unexpected fluctuations at domestic level. Hence, investors may face higher uncertainty and unexpected effects on economic development may be observed. This research shows a significant spatial dependence in stock returns for the America’s countries. Therefore, we demonstrate that there exist spatial externalities, which facilitate that changes affecting to stock returns of each country are spread through the continent, impacting also to the rest of American countries’ returns.

  1. Volatility spillover from world oil spot markets to aggregate and electricity stock index returns in Turkey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soytas, Ugur; Oran, Adil

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the inter-temporal links between world oil prices, ISE 100 and ISE electricity index returns unadjusted and adjusted for market effects. The traditional approaches could not detect a causal relationship running from oil returns to any of the stock returns. However, when we examine the causality using Cheung-Ng approach we discover that world oil prices Granger cause electricity index and adjusted electricity index returns in variance, but not the aggregate market index returns. Hence, our results show that the Cheung-Ng procedure with the use of disaggregated stock index returns can uncover new information that went unnoticed with the traditional causality tests using aggregated market indices. (author)

  2. Representation Bias, Return Forecast, and Portfolio Selection in the Stock Market of China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daping Zhao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Representation bias means a kind of cognitive tendency, and, for investors, it can affect their behavior in the stock market. Whether the representation bias can help the return forecast and portfolio selection is an interesting problem that is less studied. In this paper, based on the representation bias theory and current markets situation in China, a new hierarchy of stock measurement system is constructed and a corresponding set of criteria is also proposed. On each criterion, we try to measure the influence among stocks with adapted fuzzy AHP. Then the Hausdorff distance is applied to weight and compute the horizontal representation returns. For the forecast returns, according to representation behaviors, there is also a new computation method. Empirical results show that the representation bias information is useful to the return forecast as well as the portfolio selection.

  3. The Mauritius stock exchange: Sectoral analysis, risk and return ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Companies listed on the Mauritius Stock Exchange are classified into seven sectors of the economy, namely Banking & Insurance, Industry, Investments, Sugar, Commerce, Leisure & Hotels and Transport. Significant improvements in market capitalisation and turnover are noted in all sectors except the Transport sector.

  4. Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

    2016-01-01

    This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk.

  5. Can Network Linkage Effects Determine Return? Evidence from Chinese Stock Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Haishu; Xia, Yue; Li, Ying

    2016-01-01

    This study used the dynamic conditional correlations (DCC) method to identify the linkage effects of Chinese stock market, and further detected the influence of network linkage effects on magnitude of security returns across different industries. Applying two physics-derived techniques, the minimum spanning tree and the hierarchical tree, we analyzed the stock interdependence within the network of the China Securities Index (CSI) industry index basket. We observed that that obvious linkage effects existed among stock networks. CII and CCE, CAG and ITH as well as COU, CHA and REI were confirmed as the core nodes in the three different networks respectively. We also investigated the stability of linkage effects by estimating the mean correlations and mean distances, as well as the normalized tree length of these indices. In addition, using the GMM model approach, we found inter-node influence within the stock network had a pronounced effect on stock returns. Our results generally suggested that there appeared to be greater clustering effect among the indexes belonging to related industrial sectors than those of diverse sectors, and network comovement was significantly affected by impactive financial events in the reality. Besides, stocks that were more central within the network of stock market usually had higher returns for compensation because they endured greater exposure to correlation risk. PMID:27257816

  6. Monetary shocks and stock returns: identification through the impossible trinity

    OpenAIRE

    Ali K. Ozdagli; Yifan Yu

    2012-01-01

    This paper attempts to identify how monetary policy shocks affect stock prices by using Mundell and Fleming's theory of the "Impossible Trinity." According to this theory, it is impossible to simultaneously have a fixed exchange rate, free capital movement (an absence of capital controls), and an independent monetary policy. The authors present evidence that Hong Kong's monetary policy is heavily dependent on the monetary policy of the United States, a stance which is consistent with this the...

  7. Do expectancies of return to work and Job satisfaction predict actual return to work in workers with long lasting LBP?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opsahl, Jon; Eriksen, Hege R; Tveito, Torill H

    2016-11-17

    Musculoskeletal disorders including low back pain have major individual and socioeconomic consequences as it often leads to disability and long-term sick leave and exclusion from working life. Predictors of disability and return to work often differ, and the dominant knowledge is on predictors for prolonged sick leave and disability. Therefore it is also important to identify key predictors for return to work. The aim of the study was to assess if overall job satisfaction and expectancies of return to work predicts actual return to work after 12 months, among employees with long lasting low back pain, and to assess if there were gender differences in the predictors. Data from the Cognitive interventions and nutritional supplements trial (CINS Trial) was used. Predictors for return to work were examined in 574 employees that had been on sick leave 2-10 months for low back pain, before entering the trial. Data were analysed with multiple logistic regression models stratified by gender, and adjusted for potential confounders. Regardless of gender high expectancies were a strong and significant predictor of return to work at 12 months, while high levels of job satisfaction were not a significant predictor. There were no differences in the levels of expectancies or overall job satisfaction between men and women. However, men had in general higher odds of returning to work compared with women. Among individuals with long lasting low back pain high expectancies of returning to work were strongly associated with successful return to work. We do not know what factors influence individual expectancies of return to work. Screening expectancies and giving individuals with low expectancies interventions with a goal to change expectancies of return to work, such as CBT or self-management interventions, may contribute to increase actual return to work. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ , with registration number NCT00463970 . The trial was registered at the 18th of April 2007.

  8. Global economic growth and expected returns around the world: The end-of-the-year effect

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig Vinther; Rangvid, Jesper

    2017-01-01

    Global economic growth at the end of the year strongly predicts returns from a wide spectrum of international assets, such as global, regional, and individual-country stocks, FX, and commodities. Global economic growth at other times of the year does not predict international returns. Low growth...

  9. Randomness in denoised stock returns: The case of Moroccan family business companies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we scrutinize entropy in family business stocks listed on Casablanca stock exchange and market index to assess randomness in their returns. For this purpose, we adopt a novel approach based on combination of stationary wavelet transform and Tsallis entropy for empirical analysis of the return series. The obtained empirical results show strong evidence that their respective entropy functions are characterized by opposite dynamics. Indeed, the information contents of their respective dynamics are statistically and significantly different. Obviously, information on regular events carried by family business returns is more certain, whilst that carried by market returns is uncertain. Such results are definitively useful to understand the nonlinear dynamics on returns on family business companies and those of the market. Without a doubt, they could be helpful for quantitative portfolio managers and investors.

  10. The Short-Run And Long-Run Relationship In The Indonesia Islamic Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M Shabri Abd Majid

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at empirically examining the short-run and long-run causal relationship between the Indonesian Islamic stock returns and selected macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply and exchange rate during the pre- and post- 2008 global financial turmoil period from 2002 until 2007 and from 2008 until 2013 by using monthly data. The methodology used in this study is time series econometric techniques i.e. the unit root test,co-integration test, error correction model (ECM and variance decompositions(VDCs. The findings showed that there is cointegration between Islamic stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that inflation, money supply, and exchange rate significantly affected the Islamic stock returns in Indonesia. These variables should be taken into account by the policy-makers as the important policy instruments in stabilizing Islamic stock markets in the countryDOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.2505

  11. THE SHORT- AND LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP IN INDONESIAN ISLAMIC STOCK RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shabri Abdul Majid

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at empirically examining the short-run and long-run causal relationship between the Indonesian Islamic stock returns and selected macroeconomic variables namely inflation, money supply and exchange rate during the pre- and post- 2008 global financial turmoil period from 2002 until 2007 and from 2008 until 2013 by using monthly data. The methodology used in this study is time series econometric techniques i.e. the unit root test, cointegration test, error correction model (ECM and variance decompositions (VDCs. The findings showed that there is cointegration between Islamic stock prices and macroeconomic variables. The results suggest that inflation, money supply, and exchange rate significantly affected the Islamic stock returns in Indonesia. These variables should be taken into account by the policy makers as the important policy instruments in stabilizing Islamic stock markets in the country.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v8i1.1863

  12. Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns : The Case of British Soccer Betting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2008-01-01

    Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts' expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes

  13. Information salience, investor sentiment and stock returns : The case of British soccer betting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2009-01-01

    Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts' expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes

  14. Information Salience, Investor Sentiment, and Stock Returns : The Case of British Soccer Betting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palomino, F.A.; Renneboog, L.D.R.; Zhang, C.

    2008-01-01

    Soccer clubs listed on the London Stock Exchange provide a unique way of testing stock price reactions to different types of news. For each firm, two pieces of information are released on a weekly basis: experts’ expectations about game outcomes through the betting odds, and the game outcomes

  15. How Do Neural Networks Enhance the Predictability of Central European Stock Returns?

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 58, 7-8 (2008), s. 359-376 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/06/1417 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : emerging stock market s * predictability of stock returns * neural networks Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.275, year: 2008 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/barunik-0314837.pdf

  16. The effect of asymmetric information risk on returns of stocks traded on the BM&FBOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leonardo Souza Siqueira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study sought to analyze information asymmetry in the Brazilian stock market and its relation with the returns required from portfolios through the metrics volume-synchronized probability of informed trading. To do this, the study used actual data from the transactions of 142 stocks on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA, within the period from May 1, 2014, to May 31, 2016. The results point out a high flow toxicity level in the orders of these stocks. In segment analyses of the stock market listing, data suggest there is no clue that stocks from the theoretically more overt segments have a lower toxicity level of order flows. The justification for this finding lies on the negative correlation observed between the market value of stocks and the toxicity level of orders. To test the effect of asymmetric information risk on stock returns, a factor related to the toxicity level of orders was added to the three-, four-, and five-factor models. Through the GRS test, we observed that the combination of factors that optimize the explanation of returns of the portfolios created was the one taking advantage of the factors market, size, profitability, investment, and information risk. To test the robustness of these results, the Average F-test was used in data simulated by the bootstrap method, and similar estimates were obtained. It was observed that the factor related to the book-to-market index becomes redundant in the national scenario for the models tested. Also, it was found that the factor related to information risk works as a complement to the factor size and that its inclusion leads to an improved performance of the models, indicating a possible explanatory power of information risk on portfolio returns. Therefore, data suggest that information risk is priced in the Brazilian stock market.

  17. The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Stock Returns : Evidence From Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehmet ŞENTÜRK

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Financial development is one of the most important determinants of the economic development. Financial developments in Turkey began in the early 1980s and still have continued. During this period, it has survived a severe interaction between financial development and economic growth. In this study, the causality relationship between stock returns and economic growth in Turkey it was analysed over the period 1998Q2-2014Q2. In this context; firstly, Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto and Frequency Domain causality tests were applied in order to understand the causality relationship between the two variables. As a result of the Bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto causality test results, there is no relation of causality between the variables, but according to Frequency Domain causality test stock returns cause the economic growth in short term and economic growth cause stock returns in medium term.

  18. The VIX, the Variance Premium, and Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Osterrieder, Daniela Maria; Ventosa-Santaulària, Daniel; Vera-Valdés, Eduardo

    2018-01-01

    . These problems are eliminated if risk is captured by the variance premium (VP) instead; it is unobservable, however. We propose a 2SLS estimator that produces consistent estimates without observing the VP. Using this method, we find a positive risk–return trade-off and long-run return predictability. Our...

  19. The Transmission of U.S. Election Cycles to International Stock Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Stephen R Foerster; John J Schmitz

    1997-01-01

    This paper examines the international pervasiveness and importance of the previously uncovered four-year U.S. election cycle whereby U.S. stock returns are significantly lower, and negative, in year 2 following U.S. presidential election relative to years 1, 3 and 4. All eighteen countries examined over the 1957 to 1996 time period possess lower local currency stock market capital gains returns in year 2 (-0.66%) relative to the average capital gains of years 1, 3 and 4 (11.68%). These predom...

  20. Market Returns and Weak-Form Efficiency: the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Frimpong, Joseph Magnus; Oteng-Abayie, Eric Fosu

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the weak-form efficient market hypothesis (EMH) in the case of the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE) an emerging market. Daily returns from the Databank Stock Index (DSI) over a 5-year period 1999-2004 were used for the exercise. Random walk (RW) and GARCH(1,1) models are used as the basis for our analysis. The GSE DSI returns series exhibit volatility clustering, an indication of inefficiency on the GSE. The weak-form efficient market (random walk) hypothesis was rejected for t...

  1. Bid-Ask Spreads, Trading Volume and Return Volatility: Intraday Evidence from Indian Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rashmi Ranjan Paital

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the relationship between stock return volatility, trading volume and bid-ask spread within the scope of mixture of distribution hypothesis (MDH and sequential information arrival hypothesis (SIAH in the Indian stock market using high frequency 5-minute data set over the period of 2 July 2012 to 31 December 2012. This is the first kind of study in India using bid-ask spread as an additional information variable along with trading volume to investigate the relationship with stock return volatility. Our empirical findings provide evidence of a positive contemporaneous relationship between return volatility and trading volume, and also between return volatility and bid-ask spread. Moreover, the results of Granger causality test show that the information content of trading volume and bid-ask spread are useful for predicting stock return volatility. Our results indicate that information arrival to investors tends to follow a sequential rather than a simultaneous process. This finding is consistent with the sequential information arrival hypothesis and contradicts the mixture of distribution hypothesis.

  2. The Relationship between Intellectual Capital and Income Smoothing and Stock Returns (Case in Medical Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. H. Vakilifard

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the relationship between intellectual capital, income smoothing and stock returns. We are capturing income smoothing through total accruals. Income smoothing firms have significantly higher abnormal returns around earnings announcement. In the knowledge economy, intellectual capital has become one of the primary sources of competitive advantage for a firm. Given the remarkable shift in the underlying production factors of a business within the new knowledge economy, it is important for firms to be aware of the elements of intellectual capital that would lead to value creation. So we associated relationship between intellectual capital and income smoothing and stock returns. The sample includes 108 firm-year observations from 2006 to 2011.We have used five variables: three variables to measure IC, and two variables to measure stock returns and income smoothing. Initial data analyses were conducted through SPSS. The results of our study showed that there was relationship between physical capital and stock returns but they did not provide support for the positive relationship between structural capital, human capital and firm’s financial performance.

  3. Dynamic Correlation between Stock Market Returns and Crude Oil Prices: Evidence from a Developing Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emenike O. Kalu

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Modeling the correlation of assets returns volatilities across different markets or segments of a market has practical value for portfolio selection and diversification, market regulation, and risk management. This paper therefore evaluates the nature of time-varying correlation between volatilities of stock market and crude oil returns in Nigeria using Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-GARCH model. Results from DCC-GARCH (1,1 model show evidence of volatility clustering and persistence in Nigeria stock market and crude oil returns. The results also show that there is no dynamic conditional correlation in ARCH effects between stock market returns and crude oil prices in Nigeria. The results further show that there is strong evidence of time-varying volatility correlation between stock market and crude oil returns volatility. The findings will help shape policy-making in risk management and market regulation in Nigeria.

  4. Jump Tails, Extreme Dependencies, and the Distribution of Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor

    We provide a new framework for estimating the systematic and idiosyncratic jump tail risks in financial asset prices. The theory underlying our estimates are based on in-fill asymptotic arguments for directly identifying the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps, together with conventional long...... market portfolio, we find that the distributions of the systematic and idiosyncratic jumps are both generally heavy-tailed and not necessarily symmetric. Our estimates also point to the existence of strong dependencies between the market-wide jumps and the corresponding systematic jump tails for all...... of the stocks in the sample. We also show how the jump tail dependencies deduced from the high-frequency data together with the day-to-day temporal variation in the volatility are able to explain the “extreme” dependencies vis-a-vis the market portfolio....

  5. The Dynamic Cross-Correlations between Mass Media News, New Media News, and Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuochao Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the dynamic cross-correlations between mass media news, new media news, and stock returns for the SSE 50 Index in Chinese stock market by employing the MF-DCCA method. The empirical results show that (1 there exist power-law cross-correlations between two types of news as well as between news and its corresponding SSE 50 Index return; (2 the cross-correlations between mass media news and SSE 50 Index returns show larger multifractality and more complicated structures; (3 mass media news and new media news have both complementary and competitive relationships; (4 with the rolling window analysis, we further find that there is a general increasing trend for the cross-correlations between the two types of news as well as the cross-correlations between news and returns and this trend becomes more persistent over time.

  6. Endogenous Information, Risk Characterization, and the Predictability of Average Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pradosh Simlai

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we provide a new type of risk characterization of the predictability of two widely known abnormal patterns in average stock returns: momentum and reversal. The purpose is to illustrate the relative importance of common risk factors and endogenous information. Our results demonstrates that in the presence of zero-investment factors, spreads in average momentum and reversal returns correspond to spreads in the slopes of the endogenous information. The empirical findings support the view that various classes of firms react differently to volatility risk, and endogenous information harbor important sources of potential risk loadings. Taken together, our results suggest that returns are influenced by random endogenous information flow, which is asymmetric in nature, and can be used as a performance attribution factor. If one fails to incorporate the existing asymmetric endogenous information hidden in the historical behavior, any attempt to explore average stock return predictability will be subject to an unquantified specification bias.

  7. Application of artificial neural network for the prediction of stock market returns: The case of the Japanese stock market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qiu, Mingyue; Song, Yu; Akagi, Fumio

    2016-01-01

    Accurate prediction of stock market returns is a very challenging task because of the highly nonlinear nature of the financial time series. In this study, we apply an artificial neural network (ANN) that can map any nonlinear function without a prior assumption to predict the return of the Japanese Nikkei 225 index. (1) To improve the effectiveness of prediction algorithms, we propose a new set of input variables for ANN models. (2) To verify the prediction ability of the selected input variables, we predict returns for the Nikkei 225 index using the classical back propagation (BP) learning algorithm. (3) Global search techniques, i.e., a genetic algorithm (GA) and simulated annealing (SA), are employed to improve the prediction accuracy of the ANN and overcome the local convergence problem of the BP algorithm. It is observed through empirical experiments that the selected input variables were effective to predict stock market returns. A hybrid approach based on GA and SA improve prediction accuracy significantly and outperform the traditional BP training algorithm.

  8. Stock Selection for Portfolios Using Expected Utility-Entropy Decision Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiping Yang

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Yang and Qiu proposed and then recently improved an expected utility-entropy (EU-E measure of risk and decision model. When segregation holds, Luce et al. derived an expected utility term, plus a constant multiplies the Shannon entropy as the representation of risky choices, further demonstrating the reasonability of the EU-E decision model. In this paper, we apply the EU-E decision model to selecting the set of stocks to be included in the portfolios. We first select 7 and 10 stocks from the 30 component stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index, and then derive and compare the efficient portfolios in the mean-variance framework. The conclusions imply that efficient portfolios composed of 7(10 stocks selected using the EU-E model with intermediate intervals of the tradeoff coefficients are more efficient than that composed of the sets of stocks selected using the expected utility model. Furthermore, the efficient portfolio of 7(10 stocks selected by the EU-E decision model have almost the same efficient frontier as that of the sample of all stocks. This suggests the necessity of incorporating both the expected utility and Shannon entropy together when taking risky decisions, further demonstrating the importance of Shannon entropy as the measure of uncertainty, as well as the applicability of the EU-E model as a decision-making model.

  9. On conservation of renewable resources with stock-dependent return and non-concave production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Olson, Lars J.; Roy, Santanu

    1994-05-01

    An analysis is presented of the intertemporal choice foundations underlying the conservation or extinction of renewable resources when the resource production function is non-concave and the immediate return function depends on both current consumption and the size of the resource stock. This case may exhibit nonlinear dynamics and extinction is possible from high stocks even if conservation occurs from lower stocks. The paper focusses on the influence of preferences and the production function on the efficiency of: global conservation, the existence of a safe standard of conservation, or extinction. We show that conservation is efficient under weaker conditions than the 'δ-productivity' requirements derived in models where return function is not stock-dependent. The marginal rate of substitution between investment and the stock plays an important role in addition to the discount factor and the marginal productivity of the resource. Extinction need not be optimal even if the intrinsic growth rate of the resource is less than the external rate of return. Our analysis demonstrates the potential role of taxes, subsidies, demand forces, and harvest costs in determining the efficiency of conservation or extinction. 3 figs., 1 appendix, 24 refs

  10. On conservation of renewable resources with stock-dependent return and non-concave production

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olson, Lars J. [Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Roy, Santanu [Econometric Institute, Erasmus University, Rotterdam (Netherlands)

    1994-05-01

    An analysis is presented of the intertemporal choice foundations underlying the conservation or extinction of renewable resources when the resource production function is non-concave and the immediate return function depends on both current consumption and the size of the resource stock. This case may exhibit nonlinear dynamics and extinction is possible from high stocks even if conservation occurs from lower stocks. The paper focusses on the influence of preferences and the production function on the efficiency of: global conservation, the existence of a safe standard of conservation, or extinction. We show that conservation is efficient under weaker conditions than the `{delta}-productivity` requirements derived in models where return function is not stock-dependent. The marginal rate of substitution between investment and the stock plays an important role in addition to the discount factor and the marginal productivity of the resource. Extinction need not be optimal even if the intrinsic growth rate of the resource is less than the external rate of return. Our analysis demonstrates the potential role of taxes, subsidies, demand forces, and harvest costs in determining the efficiency of conservation or extinction. 3 figs., 1 appendix, 24 refs.

  11. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts. Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes. (author)

  12. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jammazi, Rania, E-mail: jamrania2@yahoo.f [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia); Aloui, Chaker, E-mail: chaker.aloui@fsegt.rnu.t [International finance group-Tunisia, Faculty of Management and Economic Sciences of Tunis, Boulevard du 7 novembre, El Manar University, B.P. 248, C.P. 2092, Tunis Cedex (Tunisia)

    2010-03-15

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  13. Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania; Aloui, Chaker

    2010-01-01

    While there is a large body of empirical studies on the relationship between crude oil price changes and stock market returns, they have failed to achieve a consensus on this subject. In this paper, we combine wavelet analysis and Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MS-VAR) approach to explore the impact of the crude oil (CO) shocks on the stock market returns for UK, France and Japan over the period from January 1989 to December 2007. Our procedure involves the estimation of the extended MS-VAR model in order to investigate the importance of the resultant wavelet filtering series (after removing random components) in determining the behavior of the stock market volatilities. We show that CO shocks do not affect the recession stock market phases (except for Japan). However, they significantly reduce moderate and/or expansion stock market phases temporarily. Moreover, this negative relationship appears to be more pronounced during the pre-1999 period. The empirical findings will prove extremely useful to investors who need to understand the exact effect of international oil changes on certain stocks prices as well as for policy managers who need a more thorough evaluation about the efficiency of hedging policies affected by oil price changes.

  14. A study on relationship between the return of value/growth portfolio and market return: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monireh Mashhadi Ramezanali

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the relationship between the returns of two value and growth portfolios and the return of market on 15 selected firms on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2008-2011. The study divides the firms into two groups in terms of the ratios of price on earning as well as price on book value into two groups of value and growth portfolios. Using some regression analysis, the study has determined a positive and meaningful relationship between value portfolio and market return when the market is on the upside but this relationship is not meaningful during the bear session. The results indicate that during the bull sessions, value portfolios provide better investment opportunities than growth ones do.

  15. Getting the Most out of Macroeconomic Information for Predicting Stock Returns and Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Cakmakli (Cem); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that

  16. Getting the most out of macroeconomic information for predicting stock returns and volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cakmakli, C.; van Dijk, D.

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents that factors extracted from a large set of macroeconomic variables bear useful information for predicting monthly US excess stock returns and volatility over the period 1980-2005. Factor-augmented predictive regression models improve upon both benchmark models that only include

  17. The Impact of China on Stock Returns and Volatility in the Taiwan Tourism Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the stock returns and volatility size effects for firm performance in the Taiwan tourism industry, especially the impacts arising from the tourism policy reform that allowed mainland Chinese tourists to travel to Taiwan. Four conditional univariate GARCH models

  18. The Degree of Financial Liberalization and Aggregated Stock-return Volatility in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Umutlu, M.; Akdeniz, L.; Salih, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    In this study, we address whether the degree of financial liberalization affects the aggregated total volatility of stock returns by considering the time-varying nature of financial liberalization. We also explore channels through which the degree of financial liberalization impacts aggregated total

  19. The Risk of Individual Stocks’ Tail Dependence with the Market and Its Effect on Stock Returns

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    Guobin Fan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Traditional beta is only a linear measure of overall market risk and places equal emphasis on upside and downside risks, but actually the latter is always much stronger probably due to the trading mechanism like short-sale constraints. Therefore, this paper employs the nonlinear measure, tail dependence, to measure the extreme downside risks that individual stocks crash together with the whole market and investigates whether such tail dependence risks will affect stock returns. Our empirical evidence based on Shanghai A shares confirms that most stocks display nonnegligible tail dependence with the whole market, and, more importantly, such tail dependence risks can indeed provide additional information beyond beta and other factors for asset pricing. In cross-sectional regression, it is proved that this tail dependence does help to explain monthly returns on Shanghai A shares, whereas the time-series regression further indicates that mimicking portfolio returns for tail dependence can capture strong common variation of Shanghai A stock returns.

  20. Oil and Cars: The Impact of Crude Oil Prices on the Stock Returns of Automotive Companies

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    Bettina Lis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we are testing whether the impact of oil prices is different on the overall market and automotive companies. In addition we investigate, if this relationship is nonlinear. For this we use stock return data of US, German and Japanese car companies, and returns of share indices from the same countries as control variables, and Brent crude oil price changes. We first estimate the impact of crude oil on the indices, then clean the indices from these influences, and afterwards estimate the impact on the stocks. For this we are using OLS and EGARCH (1,1. We conclude that in general the car companies‘ stocks do not react more adversely as the overall market to crude oil price increases, while Japanese companies do not show any excess sensitivity at all. German companies tend to be sensitive, and US and German companies are together more sensitive in the more recent time periods.

  1. An analysis of seasonality fluctuations in the oil and gas stock returns

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    Muhammad Surajo Sanusi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the existence of seasonality anomalies in the stock returns of the oil and gas companies on the London Stock Exchange. It employs F-test, Kruskal–Wallis and Tukey tests to examine days-of-the-week effect. Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity specification was also employed to investigate both the days-of-the-week and months-of-the-year effects. The analysis had been extended to some key FTSE indices. Our results showed no evidence of any regularity or seasonal fluctuation in the oil and gas stock returns despite the seasonal changes of demand in the companies’ products. However, January effect has been observed in FTSE All Share and FTSE 100 indices.

  2. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  3. Exploring the dynamics of financial markets: from stock prices to strategy returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borland, Lisa

    2016-01-01

    Exploring the dynamics of financial time-series is an exciting and interesting challenge because of the many truly complex interactions that underly the price formation process. In this contribution we describe some of the anomalous statistical features of such time-series and review models of the price dynamics both across time and across the universe of stocks. In particular we discuss a non-Gaussian statistical feedback process of stock returns which we have developed over the past years with the particular application of option pricing. We then discuss a cooperative model for the correlations of stock dynamics which has its roots in the field of synergetics, where numerical simulations and comparisons with real data are presented. Finally we present summarized results of an empirical analysis probing the dynamics of actual trading strategy return streams.

  4. The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Miao; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2016-11-01

    The dynamic correlation is examined between government's policy uncertainty and Chinese stock market returns in the period from January 1995 to December 2014. We find that the stock market is significantly correlated to policy uncertainty based on the results of the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) models. In contrast, the results of the Dynamic Conditional Correlation Generalized Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model surprisingly show a low dynamic correlation coefficient between policy uncertainty and market returns, suggesting that the fluctuations of each variable are greatly influenced by their values in the preceding period. Our analysis highlights the understanding of the dynamical relationship between stock market and fiscal and monetary policy.

  5. Systematic Risk Factors for Australian Stock Market Returns: a Cointegration Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mazharul H. Kazi

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper identifies the systematic risk factors for the Australian stock market by applyingthe cointegration technique of Johansen. In conformity with the finance literature andinvestors’ common intuition, relevant a priori variables are chosen to proxy for Australiansystematic risk factors. The results show that only a few systematic risk factors are dominantfor Australian stock market price movements in the long-run while short-run dynamics are inplace. It is observed that the linear combination of all a priori variables is cointegratedalthough not all variables are significantly influential. The findings show that bank interestrate, corporate profitability, dividend yield, industrial production and, to a lesser extent, globalmarket movements are significantly influencing the Australian stock market returns in thelong-run; while in the short-run it is being adjusted each quarter by its own performance,interest rate and global stock market movements of previous quarter.

  6. AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION OF THE RELATIONSHIP AMONG P/E RATIO, STOCK RETURN AND DIVIDEND YIELS FOR ISTANBUL STOCK EXCHANGE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Funda H. SEZGIN

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The price to earnings ratio (P/E is widely used, particularly by practitioners, as a measure of relative stock valuation. Price to earnings is an indicator which indicates current mood of investors how much they are willing to pay per unit of company earnings. Traditionally, the P/E ratio has been assumed to be an indicator of the quality of an investment; a relatively low P/E ratio implies a good investment, whereas a relatively high P/E ratio indicates a “poor” investment prospect. The aim of this study is to identify relationship among market stock return, dividend yields and price to earnings ratio affect in the period 2000.01-2009.12. Therefore, to determine long-run and short-run relationship, Johansen cointegration tests, error-correction models and Granger causality tests are used.

  7. The Relationship between Market Sentiment Index and Stock Rates of Return: a Panel Data Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudia Emiko Yoshinaga

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the relationship between market sentiment and future stock rates of return. We used amethodology based on principal component analysis to create a sentiment index for the Brazilian market withdata from 1999 to 2008. The sample consisted of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA which were groupedinto quintiles, each representing a portfolio, according to the magnitude of the following characteristics: marketvalue, total annualized risk and listing time on BM&FBOVESPA. Next, we calculated the average return of eachportfolio for every quarter. The data for the first and last quintiles were analyzed via two-factor ANOVA, usingsentiment index of the previous period (positive or negative as the main factor and each characteristic ascontrolling factors. Finally, the sentiment index was included in a panel data pricing model. The results indicatea significant and negative relationship between the market sentiment index and the future rates of return. Thesefindings suggest the existence of a reversion pattern in stock returns, meaning that after a positive sentimentperiod, the impact on subsequent stock returns is negative, and vice-versa.

  8. RISK AND RETURN IN THE REAL ESTATE, BOND AND STOCK MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wolski Rafał

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Studies investigating the relation between risk and return occupy an important place in the discussion about the effectiveness of investing in real estate. A review of the available studies shows that real estate investments are less profitable than stocks, but in terms of risk and return, are usually the best option. This worldwide regularity may not necessarily be presented in Poland, as the Polish market is not fully fledged yet. The analysis presented in this article was performed with a view to reducing a research gap resulting from the lack of comprehensive Polish studies in this field. In the article, data spanning the years from 2006 to 2016 are examined by means of descriptive statistics, measures of risk, and the analysis of variance (ANOVA to determine which of the following investment vehicles - bonds, real estate or stocks - offer the best risk-return ratio. The article has two parts. The analytical part is a review of studies on risk measurement methods and of earlier studies investigating risk and return by a class of assets (particularly real estate. In the empirical part, assets are compared with the use of statistical methods. The results of the risk-return analysis point to the money market as the best option for investors. Stocks and real estate ranked second and third, respectively.

  9. Safety Behavior After Extinction Triggers a Return of Threat Expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Uijen, S.L.; Leer, A.; Engelhard, I.M.

    2018-01-01

    Safety behavior is involved in the maintenance of anxiety disorders, presumably because it prevents the violation of negative expectancies. Recent research showed that safety behavior is resistant to fear extinction. This fear conditioning study investigated whether safety behavior after fear

  10. Forward-looking disclosure and corporate reputation as mechanisms to reduce stock return volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Bravo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether forward-looking disclosures and corporate reputation lead to a reduction in stock return volatility. This study measures financial forward-looking information, by conducting a content analysis of annual reports for a sample of US companies. Since every annual report was manually examined and coded, the study is therefore restricted to the companies listed in Standard and Poor's 100. Results show that financial forward-looking information has significant effects on capital markets. This study contributes to the current literature on voluntary disclosure, by examining the link between the disclosure of financial forward-looking information and stock return volatility. Since stock volatility is linked to information asymmetries and to a higher risk of a company, this analysis implies certain practical implications for both managers and regulators regarding the importance of specific disclosure strategy in capital markets. Moreover, results indicate that forward-looking information disclosed by companies of a higher reputation has a greater effect on stock return volatility. This is the first study that demonstrates that corporate reputation moderates the effects of forward-looking information in capital markets. In addition to the level of disclosed information, the interpretation and the effectiveness of forward-looking information depends on the reputation of a company.

  11. Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

    2017-03-01

    The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

  12. PENGARUH MODAL INTELEKTUAL TERHADAP MANAJEMEN LABA RIIL DAN FUTURE STOCK RETURNS

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    Tendy Wato

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to examine the influence of Intellectual Capital (IC on Real Earnings Management (MR and  Future Stock Returns (FSR in the manufacturing companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX.  The data used was obtained using multiple  regression of 27 companies manufacturing for the period 2007 to 2013. Model IC using VAICTM of Pulic (2000, Model Manajemen Laba Riil (MR of Roychowdhury (2006 and the FSR of Sloan (1996. Model analysis of the test data is performed by Multiple Regression. The results showed a partial effect on the IC to MR- PROD, MR-DISX and MR-CFO. IC has affect the FSR significantly. The overall results of this study support the theory resourced-based and knowledge-based. Research of Intellectual Capital (IC is a new one in Indonesia, so that the data associated with the IC is still difficult to obtain. Also there is no official standard referenced in particular the Financial Accounting Standards (IFRSs Indonesia in calculating the IC. The paper shows that intellectual capital is an important element affecting the future stock returns with real earnings management as intervening. The paper’s finding suggest that it is necessary to improve the transparency of the accounting information, so as to reduce  real earnings management,  especially in cash flow operation and improve earnings quality to some extent, which provides valuable reference for the company’s decision. This paper extends prior research by addressing the potential effects of IC on future stock returns with real earnings management as intervening.  The findings reported in this paper provide novel insights to the empirical financial accounting literature. Keyword: Intellectual  capital, real earning management, future stock returns.

  13. The value of social media for predicting stock returns preconditions, instruments and performance analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Nofer, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Michael Nofer examines whether and to what extent Social Media can be used to predict stock returns. Market-relevant information is available on various platforms on the Internet, which largely consist of user generated content. For instance, emotions can be extracted in order to identify the investors' risk appetite and in turn the willingness to invest in stocks. Discussion forums also provide an opportunity to identify opinions on certain companies. Taking Social Media platforms as examples, the author examines the forecasting quality of user generated content on the Internet.

  14. The Impact of Smoking Ban Fatwa on Indonesian Tobacco’s Company: Evidence from Stock Market Return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gatot Soepriyanto

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the share price reactions to smoking ban fatwa on Indonesia tobacco’s company. We expect that the smoking ban fatwa in the world’s largest Muslim population will hit the tobaccos industry revenues, lower tobacco’s company profit and eventually affect the share price of those firms. We use event study methodology and standard market model to calculate abnormal returns of the tobacco’s firms related to the news of smoking ban fatwa. Our study failed to find a statistically significant effect of smoking ban fatwa on tobacco’s firm stock market return. It suggests that the investors do not see the fatwa as a factor that may control the tobacco consumption in Indonesia – thus it may not affect the tobacco’s firm revenues and profit in the future

  15. The Use of Risk and Return for Testing the Stability of Stock Markets

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    Viorica Chirilă

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The European Central Bank stipulates that a financial system is stable if the financial risks are evaluated and rewarded correctly and if the economic and financial shocks are absorbed. When analyzing the return and volatility of the stock exchanges we may ascertain that a stock exchange is stable if there is a connection between return and volatility and if the shocks determined by the new positive and negative information do not cause significant changes of the volatility. We took into consideration the values of the indices of stock markets from Holland (AEX, Belgium (BEL, Romania (BET, Hungary (BUX, Germany (DAX, France (CAC, Czech Republic (PX, Slovakia (SAX, Austria (ATX, Estonia (OMXT, Latvia (OMXR and Lithuania (OMXV. In order to test the relationship between return-volatility and volatility asymmetry we estimated a GJR-GARCH-M model. The results confirm the lack of existence of a correlation between return and volatility for the entire period under analysis and the existence of the volatility asymmetry.

  16. Evidence of Large Fluctuations of Stock Return and Financial Crises from Turkey: Using Wavelet Coherency and Varma Modeling to Forecast Stock Return

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oygur, Tunc; Unal, Gazanfer

    Shocks, jumps, booms and busts are typical large fluctuation markers which appear in crisis. Models and leading indicators vary according to crisis type in spite of the fact that there are a lot of different models and leading indicators in literature to determine structure of crisis. In this paper, we investigate structure of dynamic correlation of stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences in crisis periods in Turkey over the period between October 1990 and March 2015 by applying wavelet coherency methodologies to determine nature of crises. The time period includes the Turkeys currency and banking crises; US sub-prime mortgage crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis occurred in 1994, 2001, 2008 and 2009, respectively. Empirical results showed that stock return, interest rate, exchange rate and trade balance differences are significantly linked during the financial crises in Turkey. The cross wavelet power, the wavelet coherency, the multiple wavelet coherency and the quadruple wavelet coherency methodologies have been used to examine structure of dynamic correlation. Moreover, in consequence of quadruple and multiple wavelet coherence, strongly correlated large scales indicate linear behavior and, hence VARMA (vector autoregressive moving average) gives better fitting and forecasting performance. In addition, increasing the dimensions of the model for strongly correlated scales leads to more accurate results compared to scalar counterparts.

  17. Stock returns predictability and the adaptive market hypothesis in emerging markets: evidence from India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiremath, Gourishankar S; Kumari, Jyoti

    2014-01-01

    This study addresses the question of whether the adaptive market hypothesis provides a better description of the behaviour of emerging stock market like India. We employed linear and nonlinear methods to evaluate the hypothesis empirically. The linear tests show a cyclical pattern in linear dependence suggesting that the Indian stock market switched between periods of efficiency and inefficiency. In contrast, the results from nonlinear tests reveal a strong evidence of nonlinearity in returns throughout the sample period with a sign of tapering magnitude of nonlinear dependence in the recent period. The findings suggest that Indian stock market is moving towards efficiency. The results provide additional insights on association between financial crises, foreign portfolio investments and inefficiency. G14; G12; C12.

  18. The dynamic conditional relationship between stock market returns and implied volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sung Y.; Ryu, Doojin; Song, Jeongseok

    2017-09-01

    Using the dynamic conditional correlation multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-MGARCH) model, we empirically examine the dynamic relationship between stock market returns (KOSPI200 returns) and implied volatility (VKOSPI), as well as their statistical mechanics, in the Korean market, a representative and leading emerging market. We consider four macroeconomic variables (exchange rates, risk-free rates, term spreads, and credit spreads) as potential determinants of the dynamic conditional correlation between returns and volatility. Of these macroeconomic variables, the change in exchange rates has a significant impact on the dynamic correlation between KOSPI200 returns and the VKOSPI, especially during the recent financial crisis. We also find that the risk-free rate has a marginal effect on this dynamic conditional relationship.

  19. Quantifying the cross-sectional relationship between online sentiment and the skewness of stock returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Dehua; Liu, Lanbiao; Zhang, Yongjie

    2018-01-01

    The constantly increasing utilization of social media as the alternative information channel, e.g., Twitter, provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the financial market. In this paper, we employ the daily happiness sentiment extracted from Twitter as the proxy for the online sentiment dynamics and investigate its association with the skewness of stock returns of 26 international stock market index returns. The empirical results show that: (1) by dividing the daily happiness sentiment into quintiles from the least to the most happiness days, the skewness of the Most-happiness subgroup is significantly larger than that of the Least-happiness subgroup. Besides, there exist significant differences in any pair of subgroups; (2) in an event study methodology, we further show that the skewness around the highest happiness days is significantly larger than the skewness around the lowest happiness days.

  20. Earnings management and Stock Market Return: An Investigation of Lean against the Wind Hypothesis

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    Amir Sajjad Khan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available This study attempts to investigate the “lean against the wind hypothesis”. For this purpose the relationship of earnings management to that of the aggregate stock market return was investigated. Data for the year 2005 to 2009 was examined and Panel Data techniques were applied on the data set. F-statistics were used to check for appropriateness of the model, Housman test were used to finally decide for fixed effect model. Results of the paper were against the existence of lean against the wind behavior of the firms towards the aggregate under valuation of stock market returns. These Results were in favor of the past study of Cohen and Zarowin (2011.Keywords: Earnings management, Discretionary accruals, Modified Jones model, KSE

  1. The Javanese Lunar Calendar’s Effect on Indonesian Stock Returns

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    Robiyanto, Robiyanto

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available It is very possible for an investor to take a decision based on superstitions and common beliefs. Actually, Indonesia has a specific calendar system called the Javanese lunar calendar. The Javanese calendar contains several special days because of their sacred characteristics such as “Kamis Wage” (Thursday Wage and “Jum’at Kliwon” (Friday Kliwon. The day of Friday Kliwon is often considered to be the most frightening which is similar to Friday the Thirteenth in Western culture. This study tried to scrutinize the impact of those sacred days on Indonesian stock returns. By applying GARCH-M, the finding shows that the Javanese lunar calendar does not have any impact on the Indonesian stock returns, but does affect the investors’ risk aversion level. This study has proven that, in terms of risk aversion, investors’ behavior in Indonesia is influenced by superstition.

  2. Dependence between Stock Returns of Italian Banks and the Sovereign Risk

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    Fabrizio Durante

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the interdependence between the government yield spread and stock returns of the banking sector in Italy during the years 2003–2015. In a first step, we find that the Spearman’s rank correlation between the yield spread and the Italian banking system changed significantly after September 2008. According to this finding, we split the time window in two sub-periods. While we show that the dependence between the banking industry and changes in the yield spread increased significantly in the second time interval, we find no contagion effects from changes in the yield spread to returns of the banking system.

  3. Foreign portfolio capital flows and stock returns: a study of Brazilian listed firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tiago Rodrigues Loncan

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study analyzed the effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on stock returns of Brazilian listed firms through a 6-factors APT model, in which an additional risk factor for foreign portfolio capital flows was included. First, an aggregate analysis was conducted. The partial effect of foreign portfolio capital flows on the IBOVESPA index’s returns was statistically significant and positive. Next, a disaggregate analysis was also implemented, in which portfolios of stocks were sorted by sector of economic activity, level of risk and level of corporate governance. Foreign portfolio capitals caused increases in returns especially for sectors related to commodities, industry and cyclical consumption. For the portfolios sorted by risk (in which the stocks’ betas were used as a risk parameter for sorting, foreign capitals increased the returns of mid-high and high beta portfolios, but decreased the returns of low and low-mid beta portfolios. For corporate governance portfolios, the firms listed on the Novo Mercado segment (according to BMF&Bovespa criteria experienced a statistically significant revaluation effect. Overall, the results of the study provide support to the revaluation effect hypothesis.

  4. The Effect of Marketing Expenses on Stock Returns: The Case of ISE Food Industry

    OpenAIRE

    Yusuf Volkan Topuz; Nazlı Aksit

    2013-01-01

    In this study, the effect of marketing expenses on stock returns has been studied. According to the generally accepted accounting principles, marketing expenses are a kind of cost and are presented in income statements as an operating expense. On the other hand, in addition to this view, new approaches in finance consider marketing expenses as a value greater than an expense item. Therefore, marketing expenses are taken into account as an investment activity which would create a value for the...

  5. Long-range dependence in returns and volatility of Central European Stock Indices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 2010, č. 3 (2010), s. 1-19 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : long-range dependence * rescaled range * modified rescaled range * bootstrapping Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/kristoufek-long-range dependence in returns and volatility of central european stock indices.pdf

  6. GOOD NEWS, BAD NEWS AND GARCH EFFECTS IN STOCK RETURN DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Craig A. Depken II

    2001-01-01

    It is shown that the volume of trade can be decomposed into proportional proxies for stochastic flows of good news and bad news into the market. Positive (good) information flows are assumed to increase the price of a financial vehicle while negative (bad) information flows decrease the price. For the majority of a sample of ten split-stocks it is shown that the proposed decomposition explains more GARCH than volume itself. Using the proposed decomposition, the variance of returns for younger...

  7. Surveying effects of forward-backward P/E‎‎ ratios on stock's return and ‎fluctuation in Tehran's stock exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos VakilAlroaia

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to study the relationship between forward-backward effects on stock return, which normally depends on Price-Earnings ratio (P/E‎ and stock fluctuation in stock exchange. Monthly time series pattern of Tehran stock exchange are used monthly from 2006 to 2010. The data contains all available companies in exchange where the shares were traded at the least 120 days during for the recent 12 months. The results of this research show that the independent variables investigated in this research have meaningful effects on the research's dependent variable. This means that the effects of company’s systematic risk and markets risk on companies’ stock return are positive.

  8. A first application of independent component analysis to extracting structure from stock returns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Back, A D; Weigend, A S

    1997-08-01

    This paper explores the application of a signal processing technique known as independent component analysis (ICA) or blind source separation to multivariate financial time series such as a portfolio of stocks. The key idea of ICA is to linearly map the observed multivariate time series into a new space of statistically independent components (ICs). We apply ICA to three years of daily returns of the 28 largest Japanese stocks and compare the results with those obtained using principal component analysis. The results indicate that the estimated ICs fall into two categories, (i) infrequent large shocks (responsible for the major changes in the stock prices), and (ii) frequent smaller fluctuations (contributing little to the overall level of the stocks). We show that the overall stock price can be reconstructed surprisingly well by using a small number of thresholded weighted ICs. In contrast, when using shocks derived from principal components instead of independent components, the reconstructed price is less similar to the original one. ICA is shown to be a potentially powerful method of analyzing and understanding driving mechanisms in financial time series. The application to portfolio optimization is described in Chin and Weigend (1998).

  9. Investigation of market efficiency and Financial Stability between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange: Monthly and yearly Forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns using ARMA model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rounaghi, Mohammad Mahdi; Nassir Zadeh, Farzaneh

    2016-08-01

    We investigated the presence and changes in, long memory features in the returns and volatility dynamics of S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. Recently, multifractal analysis has been evolved as an important way to explain the complexity of financial markets which can hardly be described by linear methods of efficient market theory. In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. The random walk hypothesis is evaluated against alternatives accommodating either unifractality or multifractality. Several studies find that the return volatility of stocks tends to exhibit long-range dependence, heavy tails, and clustering. Because stochastic processes with self-similarity possess long-range dependence and heavy tails, it has been suggested that self-similar processes be employed to capture these characteristics in return volatility modeling. The present study applies monthly and yearly forecasting of Time Series Stock Returns in S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange using ARMA model. The statistical analysis of S&P 500 shows that the ARMA model for S&P 500 outperforms the London stock exchange and it is capable for predicting medium or long horizons using real known values. The statistical analysis in London Stock Exchange shows that the ARMA model for monthly stock returns outperforms the yearly. ​A comparison between S&P 500 and London Stock Exchange shows that both markets are efficient and have Financial Stability during periods of boom and bust.

  10. Stylized facts in internal rates of return on stock index and its derivative transactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pichl, Lukáš; Kaizoji, Taisei; Yamano, Takuya

    2007-08-01

    Universal features in stock markets and their derivative markets are studied by means of probability distributions in internal rates of return on buy and sell transaction pairs. Unlike the stylized facts in normalized log returns, the probability distributions for such single asset encounters incorporate the time factor by means of the internal rate of return, defined as the continuous compound interest. Resulting stylized facts are shown in the probability distributions derived from the daily series of TOPIX, S & P 500 and FTSE 100 index close values. The application of the above analysis to minute-tick data of NIKKEI 225 and its futures market, respectively, reveals an interesting difference in the behavior of the two probability distributions, in case a threshold on the minimal duration of the long position is imposed. It is therefore suggested that the probability distributions of the internal rates of return could be used for causality mining between the underlying and derivative stock markets. The highly specific discrete spectrum, which results from noise trader strategies as opposed to the smooth distributions observed for fundamentalist strategies in single encounter transactions may be useful in deducing the type of investment strategy from trading revenues of small portfolio investors.

  11. Neglected chaos in international stock markets: Bayesian analysis of the joint return-volatility dynamical system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsionas, Mike G.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.

    2017-09-01

    We use a novel Bayesian inference procedure for the Lyapunov exponent in the dynamical system of returns and their unobserved volatility. In the dynamical system, computation of largest Lyapunov exponent by traditional methods is impossible as the stochastic nature has to be taken explicitly into account due to unobserved volatility. We apply the new techniques to daily stock return data for a group of six countries, namely USA, UK, Switzerland, Netherlands, Germany and France, from 2003 to 2014, by means of Sequential Monte Carlo for Bayesian inference. The evidence points to the direction that there is indeed noisy chaos both before and after the recent financial crisis. However, when a much simpler model is examined where the interaction between returns and volatility is not taken into consideration jointly, the hypothesis of chaotic dynamics does not receive much support by the data ("neglected chaos").

  12. The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

    2015-06-01

    The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

  13. Value Effect in Indonesian Stock Returns: The Implications for the Equity Mutual Fund Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Kristianto Utomo

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We extend the persistence and pervasiveness of the presence of value effect to Indonesian stock returns in the last two decades by utilizing data set that is relatively free of survivor bias and selection bias. Our finding shows that value portfolios have been able to outperform growth portfolios. Furthermore, the presence of the effect as an asset pricing factor, along with the size effect, can significantly explain the returns of the aggregate equity mutual funds in Indonesia and unveil that the equity mutual fund industry does not provide sufficient risk-adjusted return to cover trading costs and fund expenses. Our proposition is that the equity mutual fund valuation will be better off to apply simpler model shown in this paper to capture the value premium as opposed to the general application of traditional valuation method.

  14. Risk-Return Trade-off in Emerging Markets:Evidence from Dhaka Stock Exchange Bangladesh

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu T. Mollik

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to measure the risk and return relationship in Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE. The study reports a statistically significant positive relationship between risk and return both at the individual security level and at the portfolio level, confirming the theoretical predictions and empirical findings on this issue in developed markets. Although portfolio risk and returns are found to be significantly positively related in general, some inconsistencies were revealed in the context of relative risk for high risk portfolios, suggesting the existence of some anomalies or mispricing in high risk assets. These findings have important implications for investment decisions at the DSE in that the investors may be able to create profitable investment strategies using the mispricing information.

  15. Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Sang Hoon; Jiang, Zhuhua; Lee, Yeonjeong; Yoon, Seong-Min

    2010-01-01

    This study investigates the weather effects on returns as well as volatility in the Shanghai stock market. In order to analyze the influence of the opening of B-share market to domestic investors, it is assumed that domestic investors are more sensitive to the Shanghai local weather than foreign investors. In doing so, extreme weather condition dummies are generated by using the 21-day and 31-day moving average and its standard deviation. Empirical analysis provides two key results regarding weather effects. First, the weather effect exists in the A-share returns, but does not exist in the B-share returns over the whole period. In addition, the post-opening period shows the strong weather effect on B-share returns only, indicating that the market openness to domestic investors results in the weather effect. Second, the weather effect has a strong influence on the volatility of both A- and B-share returns. Similar to the case of returns, the weather effect on volatility is explained by the openness of B-share market.

  16. Oil shock transmission to stock market returns: Wavelet-multivariate Markov switching GARCH approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jammazi, Rania

    2012-01-01

    Since oil prices are typically governed by nonlinear and chaotic behavior, it’s become rather difficult to capture the dominant properties of their fluctuations. In recent years, unprecedented interest emerged on the decomposition methods in order to capture drifts or spikes relatively to this data. Together, our understanding of the nature of crude oil price shocks and their effects on the stock market returns has evolved noticeably. We accommodate these findings to investigate two issues that have been at the center of recent debates on the effect of crude oil shocks on the stock market returns of five developed countries (USA, UK, Japan, Germany and Canada). First, we analyze whether shocks and or volatility emanating from two major crude oil markets are transmitted to the equity markets. We do this by applying, the Haar A Trous Wavelet decomposition to monthly real crude oil series in a first step, and the trivariate BEKK Markov Switching GARCH model to analyze the effect of the smooth part on the degree of the stock market instability in a second step. The motivation behind the use of the former method is that noises and erratic behavior often appeared at the edge of the signal, can affect the quality of the shock and thus increase erroneous results of the shock transmission to the stock market. The proposed model is able to circumvent the path dependency problem that can influence the prediction’s robustness and can provide useful information for investors and government agencies that have largely based their views on the notion that crude oil markets affect negatively stock market returns. Second, under the hypothesis of common increased volatility, we investigate whether these states happen around the identified international crises. Indeed, the results show that the A Haar Trous Wavelet decomposition method appears to be an important step toward improving accuracy of the smooth signal in detecting key real crude oil volatility features. Additionally

  17. A Pseudo-Bayesian Model for Stock Returns In Financial Crises

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric S. Fung

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a considerable interest in the Bayesian approach for explaining investors' behaviorial biases by incorporating conservative and representative heuristics when making financial decisions, (see, for example, Barberis, Shleifer and Vishny (1998. To establish a quantitative link between some important market anomalies and investors' behaviorial biases, Lam, Liu, and Wong (2010 introduced a pseudo-Bayesian approach for developing properties of stock returns, where weights induced by investors' conservative and representative heuristics are assigned to observations of the earning shocks and stock prices. In response to the recent global financial crisis, we introduce a new pseudo-Bayesian model to incorporate the impact of a financial crisis. Properties of stock returns during the financial crisis and recovery from the crisis are established. The proposed model can be applied to investigate some important market anomalies including short-term underreaction, long-term overreaction, and excess volatility during financial crisis. We also explain in some detail the linkage between these market anomalies and investors' behavioral biases during financial crisis.

  18. Trade Credit, Future Earnings, and Stock Returns: A Self-Dealing Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jigao Zhu

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Chinese listed firms are characterized by a great magnitude of long-duration accounts receivable from controlling shareholders and their affiliates, and they often do not make bad debt allowances. On many occasions, these receivables are never collected. We find that firms with a great magnitude of accounts receivable demonstrate a low level of future profitability and low stock returns. It does not appear that the low earnings persistence of these firms is responsible for their poor future performance as predicted by the accrual anomaly, because the firms also report low concurrent earnings. In the context of the Chinese stock market, we interpret the results as being consistent with self-dealing through trade credit by controlling shareholders. This study contributes to the self-dealing literature by identifying a more subtle channel of expropriation of minority shareholders in China.

  19. Intra- and Inter-Regional Return and Volatility Spillovers Across Emerging and Developing Markets: Evidence from Stock Indices and Stock Index Futures

    OpenAIRE

    Yarovaya, Larisa; Brzeszczynski, Janusz; Lau, Marco Chi Keung

    2016-01-01

    We provide empirical evidence on the patterns of intra- and inter-regional transmission of information across 10 developed and 11 emerging markets in Asia, the Americas, Europe and Africa using both stock indices and stock index futures. The main transmission channels are examined in the period from 2005 to 2014 through the analysis of return and volatility spillovers around the most recent crises based on the generalized vector autoregressive framework. Our findings demonstrate that markets ...

  20. On Modelling Long Term Stock Returns with Ergodic Diffusion Processes: Arbitrage and Arbitrage-Free Specifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard Wong

    2009-01-01

    martingale component is based on an ergodic diffusion with a specified stationary distribution. These models are particularly useful for long horizon asset-liability management as they allow the modelling of long term stock returns with heavy tail ergodic diffusions, with tractable, time homogeneous dynamics, and which moreover admit a complete financial market, leading to unique pricing and hedging strategies. Unfortunately the standard specifications of these models in literature admit arbitrage opportunities. We investigate in detail the features of the existing model specifications which create these arbitrage opportunities and consequently construct a modification that is arbitrage free.

  1. INVESTORS REACTIONS TO CHANGING FIRMS’ DEBT LEVEL AND ITS EFFECT TO STOCK RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    AYŞE GÜL YILGÖR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates whether stock retuns are influenced by changing firms’ debt level and what the investors’ reactions to the announcement of this change are. We examine if the firms which have more debt comparing with prior year, could obtain cumulative abnormal return(CAR, then we test if the firms which leverage ratios are below the industry average could obtain more CAR than firms that the ratios are above the industry average. We find investors react changing firms’ debt level(with significantly positive or negative CAR. However the reactions are not related with if the leverage ratios are below or above industry average.

  2. Long-range dependence in returns and volatility of Central European Stock Indices

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 17, č. 27 (2010), s. 50-67 ISSN 1212-074X R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA UK(CZ) 5183/2010 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : long-range dependence * bootstrapping * rescaled range analysis * rescaled variance analysis Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/E/kristoufek-long-range dependence in returns and volatility of central european stock indices bces.pdf

  3. Social Support, Unfulfilled Expectations, and Affective Well-Being on Return to Employment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiger, Christine P.; Wiese, Bettina S.

    2011-01-01

    We conducted a longitudinal study to investigate how social support from the partner is related to mothers' affective well-being during their return to employment after maternity leave and whether expectations of that support have an additional impact. We differentiated four forms of support and their respective expectation discrepancies:…

  4. International Sign Predictability of Stock Returns: The Role of the United States

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nyberg, Henri; Pönkä, Harri

    from the U.S. to foreign markets. We introduce a new bivariate probit model that allows for such a contemporaneous predictive linkage from one market to the other. Our in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting results indicate superior predictive performance of the new model over the competing models...... by statistical measures and market timing performance, suggesting gradual diffusion of predictive information from the U.S. to the other markets.......We study the directional predictability of monthly excess stock market returns in the U.S. and ten other markets using univariate and bivariate binary response models. Our main interest is on the potential benefits of predicting the signs of the returns jointly, focusing on the predictive power...

  5. Does expecting mean achieving? The association between expecting to return to work and recovery in whiplash associated disorders: a population-based prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Ozegovic, Dejan; Carroll, Linda J.; David Cassidy, J.

    2009-01-01

    To determine the association between expectations to return to work and self-assessed recovery. Positive expectations predict better outcomes in many health conditions, but to date the relationship between expecting to return to work after traffic-related whiplash-associated disorders and actual recovery has not been reported. We assessed early expectations for return to work in a cohort of 2,335 individuals with traffic-related whiplash injury to the neck. Using multivariable Cox proportiona...

  6. Analysis of stock market returns of American and European stock market from the view of an American and a European investor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the analysis of stock market returns of American and European stock market for different investment horizon from the view of an American and European investor. The paper also partly resumes, in the part of analysis of USD/EUR exchange rate influence on market returns of mentioned stock market, research paper REJNUŠ, O., ŠOBA, O.: Changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and their impact on the return of stock indexes from the viewpoint of a European and of an American investor. ACTA UNIVERSITATIS AGRICULTURAE ET SILVICULTURAE MENDELIANAE BRU- NENSIS, Vol. LII, No. 6, 2004, pg. 145–159, ISSN 1211-8516.The development of both American and European stock market is put on the development of two, structure-similar Standard & Poor’s exchange indexes, particularly S&P 500 and S&P Europe 350. According to the USD/EUR exchange rate, there were used the values published by FED, with the oldest data there were accepted the count ECU to EUR. The data were taken both from the weekly closing values of mentioned stock indexes and weekly closing values of USD/EUR exchange rate.The analysis was done with using the methods of quantification of „running market returns“ (recount to the average annual values of indexes from the view of both investors within the set investment horizon. The elemental statistical level characteristic – simple average, median and statistical characteristic of variability – standard deviation and variation coefficient were quantified from this time series of annual running market returns. The analysis, which was purposely oriented to six basic different long investment horizon (1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, has approved that in focused term of 1980–2004 the market returns of picked stock market from the view of both investors (American and European was generally higher in longer investment horizon than in the shorter investment horizon. The values of variation coefficient in

  7. Network analysis of returns and volume trading in stock markets: The Euro Stoxx case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brida, Juan Gabriel; Matesanz, David; Seijas, Maria Nela

    2016-02-01

    This study applies network analysis to analyze the structure of the Euro Stoxx market during the long period from 2002 up to 2014. The paper generalizes previous research on stock market networks by including asset returns and volume trading as the main variables to study the financial market. A multidimensional generalization of the minimal spanning tree (MST) concept is introduced, by adding the role of trading volume to the traditional approach which only includes price returns. Additionally, we use symbolization methods to the raw data to study the behavior of the market structure in different, normal and critical, situations. The hierarchical organization of the network is derived, and the MST for different sub-periods of 2002-2014 is created to illustrate how the structure of the market evolves over time. From the structural topologies of these trees, different clusters of companies are identified and analyzed according to their geographical and economic links. Two important results are achieved. Firstly, as other studies have highlighted, at the time of the financial crisis after 2008 the network becomes a more centralized one. Secondly and most important, during our second period of analysis, 2008-2014, we observe that hierarchy becomes more country-specific where different sub-clusters of stocks belonging to France, Germany, Spain or Italy are found apart from their business sector group. This result may suggest that during this period of time financial investors seem to be worried most about country specific economic circumstances.

  8. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  9. THE EFFECT OF ACQUISITION ON THE STOCK RETURNS OF ACQUIRING COMPANIES: EXAMINING THE EFFECT OF ACQUISITIONS OCCURED THROUGH THE PERMISSION OF CAPITAL MARKET BOARD ON THE STOCK RETURNS OF ACQUIRING COMPANIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LEVENT ÇITAK

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A merger can be defined as the economical and legal integration of two or more firms. On the other hand, an acquisiton is the transfer of all asssets and liabilities of the target firm to the acquiring firm. In the literature, merger and acquisition concepts can be used interchangeably. Firms tend to merge for the sake of creating snergy, competitive advantage, diversification, increasing firm value etc. Mergers and acquisitions are sometimes in favour of acquiring firms’ stock holders and sometimes target firms’ stock holders. Merger gains change, depending on the type of the merger and form of payment. In this study, mergers that occured through the permission of Capital Market Board have been used for the analyses. Of the mergers which have the permission, acquiring firms that are listed on Istanbul Stock Exchange have been considered and postacquisition buy and hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns have been calculated. It is concluded that postacquisition abnormal returns aren’t statistically significant. On the other hand, 1 month, 3 month, 6 month, 1 year and 2 year buy and hold abnormal returns and cumulative abnormal returns of the acquiring firms that use different payment methods are not statistically different from each other, on the basis of same return horizon. Two different methods of abnormal return calculation don’t make any difference in postacquisition abnormal returns, either.

  10. End-of-the-year economic growth and time-varying expected returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods......, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999) , a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other...

  11. Analysis of Market Risk, Financial Leverage, and Firm Size Toward Stock Return on Non-banking Companies Listed in Lq45 Index of Idx

    OpenAIRE

    Tumewu, Ferdinand; Pangemanan, Sifrid S.; Koluku, Rini Feronica

    2015-01-01

    In the world of investment, one underlies the decision of investors is stock returns that are depend on many factors. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of Market Risk, Financial Leverage, and Firm Size to Stock Return. By counting these factors, investors can see the effect of stock returns are important in decision making. The research methods associative with regression analysis and classical assumption techniques that include normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedastici...

  12. Volatility effect and the role of firm quality factor in returns: Evidence from the Indian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asheesh Pandey

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the study, we examine if there are any volatility patterns in stock returns for India. Data are employed for 493 companies that form part of BSE 500 index from March 2000 to November 2013. Unlike previous international evidence, no volatility anomaly is observed. Consistent with theory, high volatility stocks significantly outperform low volatility stocks. Alternative risk models fail to explain the volatility effect. Consistent with prior research, we confirm the role of firm quality factor in explaining these volatility patterns. Cash flow variability seems to be a more appropriate measure of firm quality compared to profitability.

  13. Return and Risk of Pairs Trading Using a Simulation-Based Bayesian Procedure for Predicting Stable Ratios of Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Ardia

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the direct connection between the uncertainty related to estimated stable ratios of stock prices and risk and return of two pairs trading strategies: a conditional statistical arbitrage method and an implicit arbitrage one. A simulation-based Bayesian procedure is introduced for predicting stable stock price ratios, defined in a cointegration model. Using this class of models and the proposed inferential technique, we are able to connect estimation and model uncertainty with risk and return of stock trading. In terms of methodology, we show the effect that using an encompassing prior, which is shown to be equivalent to a Jeffreys’ prior, has under an orthogonal normalization for the selection of pairs of cointegrated stock prices and further, its effect for the estimation and prediction of the spread between cointegrated stock prices. We distinguish between models with a normal and Student t distribution since the latter typically provides a better description of daily changes of prices on financial markets. As an empirical application, stocks are used that are ingredients of the Dow Jones Composite Average index. The results show that normalization has little effect on the selection of pairs of cointegrated stocks on the basis of Bayes factors. However, the results stress the importance of the orthogonal normalization for the estimation and prediction of the spread—the deviation from the equilibrium relationship—which leads to better results in terms of profit per capital engagement and risk than using a standard linear normalization.

  14. Time-varying market integration and expected returns in emerging mrkets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematicrisk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level ofintegration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on themarket value

  15. Impact of Open-Market Share Repurchases on Long-Term Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Albaity

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available After the Asian financial crisis in 1997, firms listed on Bursa Malaysia were allowed to repurchase their shares on the open market. The number of companies engaged in share buyback is increasing and has become a tool to stabilize price by signaling undervaluation of the share. However, studies on share buyback in Malaysia are limited to the price performance surrounding the buyback events. This study aims to fill this gap by examining long-run price performance after the actual share buyback event over a sampling period of 2 years from 2009 to 2010 for Malaysian firms listed on FTSE Bursa Malaysia. There is no evidence to conclude that there exist long-term abnormal returns using the calendar-time portfolio approach that support the inefficient market hypothesis. On the contrary, buy-and-hold method was found to be significant supporting that the Malaysian stock market is semi-strong efficient.

  16. A Duration Hidden Markov Model for the Identification of Regimes in Stock Market Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ntantamis, Christos

    This paper introduces a Duration Hidden Markov Model to model bull and bear market regime switches in the stock market; the duration of each state of the Markov Chain is a random variable that depends on a set of exogenous variables. The model not only allows the endogenous determination...... of the different regimes and but also estimates the effect of the explanatory variables on the regimes' durations. The model is estimated here on NYSE returns using the short-term interest rate and the interest rate spread as exogenous variables. The bull market regime is assigned to the identified state...... with the higher mean and lower variance; bull market duration is found to be negatively dependent on short-term interest rates and positively on the interest rate spread, while bear market duration depends positively the short-term interest rate and negatively on the interest rate spread....

  17. Influences of Seasoned Equity Offerings on Stock Return of Ho Chi Minh Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho Viet Tien

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigated the impact of seasoned equity offerings (SEO on stock return of listed companies in Ho Chi Minh City market using the method “event study” which has been basically formed by Campbell, Lo, and MacKinlay (1997. The sample includes 332 SEOs from 2007 to 2010. The main findings show evidence that the Ho Chi Minh City market was not efficient in terms of the semi-strong form because the price has increased significantly on the ex-right date, day 0. In an opposite way, the market also reacted significantly negatively from T-4 to T-2. There are some significant impacts of timing on issue methods – equity right issues were in priority for favorable time and issues as “dividend by stocks” were chosen during unfavorable time. Keywords: Efficient Market Hypothesis, event study, Seasoned Equity Offerings

  18. Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Moya-Martínez

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further, the link between movements in interest rates and industry equity returns is stronger at the coarsest scales. This finding is consistent with the idea that investors with long-term horizons are more likely to follow macroeconomic fundamentals, such as interest rates, in their investment decisions.

  19. Analysis of cyclical behavior in time series of stock market returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stratimirović, Djordje; Sarvan, Darko; Miljković, Vladimir; Blesić, Suzana

    2018-01-01

    In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or transitional economies. We have used two techniques of data analysis to obtain and verify our findings: the wavelet transform (WT) spectral analysis to identify cycles in the SMI returns data, and the time-dependent detrended moving average (tdDMA) analysis to investigate local behavior around market cycles and trends. We found cyclical behavior in all SMI data sets that we have analyzed. Moreover, the positions and the boundaries of cyclical intervals that we found seam to be common for all markets in our dataset. We list and illustrate the presence of nine such periods in our SMI data. We report on the possibilities to differentiate between the level of growth of the analyzed markets by way of statistical analysis of the properties of wavelet spectra that characterize particular peak behaviors. Our results show that measures like the relative WT energy content and the relative WT amplitude of the peaks in the small scales region could be used to partially differentiate between market economies. Finally, we propose a way to quantify the level of development of a stock market based on estimation of local complexity of market's SMI series. From the local scaling exponents calculated for our nine peak regions we have defined what we named the Development Index, which proved, at least in the case of our dataset, to be suitable to rank the SMI series that we have analyzed in three distinct groups.

  20. On the probability distribution of stock returns in the Mike-Farmer model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, G.-F.; Zhou, W.-X.

    2009-02-01

    Recently, Mike and Farmer have constructed a very powerful and realistic behavioral model to mimick the dynamic process of stock price formation based on the empirical regularities of order placement and cancelation in a purely order-driven market, which can successfully reproduce the whole distribution of returns, not only the well-known power-law tails, together with several other important stylized facts. There are three key ingredients in the Mike-Farmer (MF) model: the long memory of order signs characterized by the Hurst index Hs, the distribution of relative order prices x in reference to the same best price described by a Student distribution (or Tsallis’ q-Gaussian), and the dynamics of order cancelation. They showed that different values of the Hurst index Hs and the freedom degree αx of the Student distribution can always produce power-law tails in the return distribution fr(r) with different tail exponent αr. In this paper, we study the origin of the power-law tails of the return distribution fr(r) in the MF model, based on extensive simulations with different combinations of the left part L(x) for x 0 of fx(x). We find that power-law tails appear only when L(x) has a power-law tail, no matter R(x) has a power-law tail or not. In addition, we find that the distributions of returns in the MF model at different timescales can be well modeled by the Student distributions, whose tail exponents are close to the well-known cubic law and increase with the timescale.

  1. Modeling Markov Switching ARMA-GARCH Neural Networks Models and an Application to Forecasting Stock Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Melike Bildirici

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The study has two aims. The first aim is to propose a family of nonlinear GARCH models that incorporate fractional integration and asymmetric power properties to MS-GARCH processes. The second purpose of the study is to augment the MS-GARCH type models with artificial neural networks to benefit from the universal approximation properties to achieve improved forecasting accuracy. Therefore, the proposed Markov-switching MS-ARMA-FIGARCH, APGARCH, and FIAPGARCH processes are further augmented with MLP, Recurrent NN, and Hybrid NN type neural networks. The MS-ARMA-GARCH family and MS-ARMA-GARCH-NN family are utilized for modeling the daily stock returns in an emerging market, the Istanbul Stock Index (ISE100. Forecast accuracy is evaluated in terms of MAE, MSE, and RMSE error criteria and Diebold-Mariano equal forecast accuracy tests. The results suggest that the fractionally integrated and asymmetric power counterparts of Gray’s MS-GARCH model provided promising results, while the best results are obtained for their neural network based counterparts. Further, among the models analyzed, the models based on the Hybrid-MLP and Recurrent-NN, the MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-HybridMLP, and MS-ARMA-FIAPGARCH-RNN provided the best forecast performances over the baseline single regime GARCH models and further, over the Gray’s MS-GARCH model. Therefore, the models are promising for various economic applications.

  2. Analysis of value creation by eva® and stock return of real estate companies in brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Rangner Vasconcelos

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In the last years, the real estate industry in Brazil grew and consolidated, causing the opening of capital of several companies in this segment. This scenario raises the need to evaluate the financial and the value creation of this sector. Faced with this situation, the present study aims to verify what is the relationship between Economic Value Added (EVA® and stock return of the construction industry that make up the Indix BM&FBOVESPA Real Estate (IMOB. As for methodological procedures, it is a bibliographical research, descriptive and as well as a multicaso study, contemplating nine companies that compose said index in 2015. The ability to generate value of this sector was analyzed through the Economic Value Added (EVA®, in which information was collected from the companies analyzed for the financial years 2010 to 2014, with the purpose of obtaining Return on Investment (ROI, Economic Value Added (EVA® and Stock Return. In general, the results of the survey that the average performance of companies, in those years, represents the destruction of value, provided by the impact of the cost of capital, which was higher than the net results of the Companies. Lastly, nominal EVA® and stock return are negatively correlated. On the other hand, residual ROI and stock return are Positively correlated significantly.

  3. Scoring on the stock exchange? The effect of football matches on stock market returns : an event study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, B.; Peenstra, W.

    2009-01-01

    We analyse the effect of results of football matches on the stock market performance of football teams. We analyse 1274 matches of eight teams in the national and European competition during 2000-2004. We find that the stock market response is significant and positive for victories and negative for

  4. Short-term and long-term Interconnectedness of stock returns in Western Europe and the global market

    OpenAIRE

    Panda, Ajaya Kumar; Nanda, Swagatika

    2017-01-01

    Background: The present study examines the short term dynamics and long term equilibrium relationship among the stock markets of 17 countries in Western Europe as well as the world market, using time series techniques. Methods: Weekly returns of market benchmark indices of the respective countries are used from the second week of 1995 to the fourth week of December 2013. Results: The study finds that the market returns of Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, and France are relatively less dynam...

  5. Expected Time to Return to Athletic Participation After Stress Fracture in Division I Collegiate Athletes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Timothy L; Jamieson, Marissa; Everson, Sonsecharae; Siegel, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    Few studies have documented expected time to return to athletic participation after stress fractures in elite athletes. Time to return to athletic participation after stress fractures would vary by site and severity of stress fracture. Retrospective cohort study. Level 3. All stress fractures diagnosed in a single Division I collegiate men's and women's track and field/cross-country team were recorded over a 3-year period. Site and severity of injury were graded based on Kaeding-Miller classification system for stress fractures. Time to return to full unrestricted athletic participation was recorded for each athlete and correlated with patient sex and site and severity grade of injury. Fifty-seven stress fractures were diagnosed in 38 athletes (mean age, 20.48 years; range, 18-23 years). Ten athletes sustained recurrent or multiple stress fractures. Thirty-seven injuries occurred in women and 20 in men. Thirty-three stress fractures occurred in the tibia, 10 occurred in the second through fourth metatarsals, 3 occurred in the fifth metatarsal, 6 in the tarsal bones (2 navicular), 2 in the femur, and 5 in the pelvis. There were 31 grade II stress fractures, 11 grade III stress fractures, and 2 grade V stress fractures (in the same patient). Mean time to return to unrestricted sport participation was 12.9 ± 5.2 weeks (range, 6-27 weeks). No significant differences in time to return were noted based on injury location or whether stress fracture was grade II or III. The expected time to return to full unrestricted athletic participation after diagnosis of a stress fracture is 12 to 13 weeks for all injury sites. Athletes with grade V (nonunion) stress fractures may require more time to return to sport.

  6. Indication of multiscaling in the volatility return intervals of stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fengzhong; Yamasaki, Kazuko; Havlin, Shlomo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2008-01-01

    The distribution of the return intervals τ between price volatilities above a threshold height q for financial records has been approximated by a scaling behavior. To explore how accurate is the scaling and therefore understand the underlined nonlinear mechanism, we investigate intraday data sets of 500 stocks which consist of Standard & Poor’s 500 index. We show that the cumulative distribution of return intervals has systematic deviations from scaling. We support this finding by studying the m -th moment μm≡⟨(τ/⟨τ⟩)m⟩1/m , which show a certain trend with the mean interval ⟨τ⟩ . We generate surrogate records using the Schreiber method, and find that their cumulative distributions almost collapse to a single curve and moments are almost constant for most ranges of ⟨τ⟩ . Those substantial differences suggest that nonlinear correlations in the original volatility sequence account for the deviations from a single scaling law. We also find that the original and surrogate records exhibit slight tendencies for short and long ⟨τ⟩ , due to the discreteness and finite size effects of the records, respectively. To avoid as possible those effects for testing the multiscaling behavior, we investigate the moments in the range 10volatility.

  7. The Effects of Federal Funds Target Rate Changes on S&P100 Stock Returns, Volatilities, and Correlations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H. Chulia-Soler (Helena); M.P.E. Martens (Martin); D.J.C. van Dijk (Dick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe study the impact of FOMC announcements of Federal funds target rate decisions on individual stock prices at the intraday level. We find that the returns, volatilities and correlations of the S&P100 index constituents only respond to the surprise component in the announcement, as

  8. Why are convertible bond announcements associated with increasingly negative abnormal stock returns? An arbitrage-based explanation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duca, E.; Dutordoir, M.; Veld, C.; Verwijmeren, P.

    2012-01-01

    While convertible offerings announced between 1984 and 1999 induce average abnormal stock returns of -1.69%, convertible announcement effects over the period 2000-2008 are more than twice as negative (-4.59%). We hypothesize that this evolution is attributable to a shift in the convertible bond

  9. An Investigation of the impact of interest rates and interest rate volatility on Australian financial sector stock return distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Faff, R.; Kremmer, M.; Hodgson, A.

    2004-01-01

    This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH-M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the

  10. Extreme returns and the contagion effect between the foreign exchange and the stock market: Evidence from Cyprus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Georgoutsos, D.A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article we apply the Extreme Value Theory (EVT) in order to estimate the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and the correlation of extreme returns for two inherently unstable markets; the foreign exchange and the stock market. We also derive the corresponding VaR estimates from more 'traditional' methods

  11. Global Variance Risk Premium and Forex Return Predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Aloosh, Arash

    2014-01-01

    In a long-run risk model with stochastic volatility and frictionless markets, I express expected forex returns as a function of consumption growth variances and stock variance risk premiums (VRPs)—the difference between the risk-neutral and statistical expectations of market return variation. This provides a motivation for using the forward-looking information available in stock market volatility indices to predict forex returns. Empirically, I find that stock VRPs predict forex returns at a ...

  12. Introducing Expected Returns into Risk Parity Portfolios: A New Framework for Tactical and Strategic Asset Allocation

    OpenAIRE

    Roncalli, Thierry

    2013-01-01

    Risk parity is an allocation method used to build diversified portfolios that does not rely on any assumptions of expected returns, thus placing risk management at the heart of the strategy. This explains why risk parity became a popular investment model after the global financial crisis in 2008. However, risk parity has also been criticized because it focuses on managing risk concentration rather than portfolio performance, and is therefore seen as being closer to passive management than act...

  13. A new daily dividend-adjusted index for the Danish stock market, 1985-2002: Construction, statistical properties, and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Belter, Klaus; Engsted, Tom; Tanggaard, Carsten

    2005-01-01

    is given. In the second part of the paper we analyze the time-series properties of daily, weekly, and monthly returns, and we present evidence on predictability of multi-period returns. We also compare stock returns with the returns on long-term bonds and short-term money market instruments (that is......We present a new dividend-adjusted blue chip index for the Danish stock market covering the period 1985-2002. In contrast to other indices on the Danish stock market, the index is calculated on a daily basis. In the first part of the paper a detailed description of the construction of the index...

  14. The importance, measurement and practical implications of worker's expectations for return to work.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Amanda E; Besen, Elyssa; Choi, YoonSun

    2015-01-01

    Workers' own expectations for return to work consistently predict work status. To advance the understanding of the relationship between RTW expectations and outcomes, we reviewed existing measures to determine those which we felt were the most likely to capture the construct. A comprehensive search of the work-disability rehabilitation literature was undertaken. The review of the measures was conducted in three steps: first, a review of terminology; second, an examination of whether a time reference was included; third, an evaluation of ease of comprehension, and applicability across contexts. A total of 42 different measures were identified. One of the most striking findings was the inconsistency in terminology. Measures were also limited by not including a time reference. Problems were also identified with regards to ease of understanding, utility of response options, and applicability in a wide variety of research and applied settings. Most previously used measures contain elements that potentially limit utility. However, it would seem that further development can overcome these, resulting in a tool that provides risk prediction information, and an opportunity to start a conversation to help identify problems that might negatively impact a worker's movement through the RTW process and the outcomes achieved. Implications for Rehabilitation Return to work is an integral part of workplace injury management. The capture of RTW expectations affords a way to identify the potential for less than optimal RTW processes and outcomes. A mismatch between an injured worker's expectations and what other stakeholders might expect suggests that efforts could be made to determine what is causing the injured worker's concerns. Once underling issues are identified, work can be put into resolving these so that the worker's return to the workplace is not impeded.

  15. Does expecting mean achieving? The association between expecting to return to work and recovery in whiplash associated disorders: a population-based prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Linda J.; David Cassidy, J.

    2009-01-01

    To determine the association between expectations to return to work and self-assessed recovery. Positive expectations predict better outcomes in many health conditions, but to date the relationship between expecting to return to work after traffic-related whiplash-associated disorders and actual recovery has not been reported. We assessed early expectations for return to work in a cohort of 2,335 individuals with traffic-related whiplash injury to the neck. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis we assessed the association between return to work expectations and self-perceived recovery during the first year following the event. After adjusting for the effects of sociodemographic characteristics, initial pain and symptoms, post-crash mood, prior health status and collision-related factors, those who expected to return to work reported global recovery 42% more quickly than those who did not have positive expectations (HRR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.26–1.60). Knowledge of return to work expectation provides an important prognostic tool to clinicians for recovery. PMID:19343376

  16. Impact of speculator's expectations of returns and time scales of investment on crude oil price behaviors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Ling-Yun; Fan, Ying; Wei, Yi-Ming

    2009-01-01

    Based on time series of crude oil prices (daily spot), this paper analyses price fluctuation with two significant parameters τ (speculators' time scales of investment) and ε (speculators' expectations of return) by using Zipf analysis technique, specifically, by mapping τ-returns of prices into 3-alphabeted sequences (absolute frequencies) and 2-alphabeted sequences (relative frequencies), containing the fundamental information of price fluctuations. This paper empirically explores parameters and identifies various types of speculators' cognition patterns of price behavior. In order to quantify the degree of distortion, a feasible reference is proposed: an ideal speculator. Finally, this paper discusses the similarities and differences between those cognition patterns of speculators' and those of an ideal speculator. The resultant analyses identify the possible distortion of price behaviors by their patterns. (author)

  17. Forecasting ability of the investor sentiment endurance index: The case of oil service stock returns and crude oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Ling T.; Casey, K.M.

    2015-01-01

    Using a binomial probability distribution model this paper creates an endurance index of oil service investor sentiment. The index reflects the probability of the high or low stock price being the close price for the PHLX Oil Service Sector Index. Results of this study reveal the substantial forecasting ability of the sentiment endurance index. Monthly and quarterly rolling forecasts of returns of oil service stocks have an overall accuracy as high as 52% to 57%. In addition, the index shows decent forecasting ability on changes in crude oil prices, especially, WTI prices. The accuracy of 6-quarter rolling forecasts is 55%. The sentiment endurance index, along with the procedure of true forecasting and accuracy ratio, applied in this study provides investors and analysts of oil service sector stocks and crude oil prices as well as energy policy-makers with effective analytical tools

  18. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arfaoui Mongi

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We also find that, comparing to optimal weights, hedge ratios are typically low, denoting that hedging efficiency is quite good. Our estimation of hedging efficiency suggests that incorporating foreign exchange in a full stock, unhedged portfolio increases the risk-adjusted return while reducing its variance. (We note here that the forex market is overweighted for both portfolio allocations and hedging strategies. Moreover, this conclusion holds for all countries in all three models.

  19. Time-Varying Market Integration and Expected Returns in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    de Jong, Frank; de Roon, Frans

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market. The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely. Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are stro...

  20. Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

    2015-12-01

    Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Expectancies mediate the relationship between perceived injustice and return to work following whiplash injury: A 1-year prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carriere, J S; Thibault, P; Adams, H; Milioto, M; Ditto, B; Sullivan, M J L

    2017-08-01

    Emerging evidence suggests that perceived injustice is a risk factor for work disability in individuals with whiplash injury. At present, however, little is known about the processes by which perceived injustice impacts on return to work. The purpose of this study was to examine whether expectancies mediated the relationship between perceived injustice and return to work in patients with whiplash injury. One hundred and fifty-two individuals (81 men, 71 women) with a primary diagnosis of whiplash injury completed self-report measures of pain intensity, perceived injustice and return-to-work expectancies following admission to a rehabilitation programme. Work status was assessed 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, high scores on a measure of perceived injustice were associated with prolonged work disability. Results indicated that high perceptions of injustice were associated with low return-to-work expectancies. Causal mediation analyses revealed that expectancies fully mediated the relationship between perceived injustice and return to work. The findings suggest that intervention techniques designed to target expectancies could improve return-to-work outcomes in patients with whiplash injury. Discussion addresses the processes by which expectancies might impact on return-to-work outcomes and the manner in which negative return-to-work expectancies might be modified through intervention. The study confirms that expectancies are the mechanism through which perceived injustice impacts return to work following whiplash injury. The findings suggest that interventions designed to specifically target return-to-work expectancies might improve rehabilitation outcomes in patients with whiplash injury. © 2017 European Pain Federation - EFIC®.

  2. Stock market returns and clinical trial results of investigational compounds: an event study analysis of large biopharmaceutical companies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Thomas J

    2013-01-01

    For biopharmaceutical companies, investments in research and development are risky, and the results from clinical trials are key inflection points in the process. Few studies have explored how and to what extent the public equity market values clinical trial results. Our study dataset matched announcements of clinical trial results for investigational compounds from January 2011 to May 2013 with daily stock market returns of large United States-listed pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. Event study methodology was used to examine the relationship between clinical research events and changes in stock returns. We identified public announcements for clinical trials of 24 investigational compounds, including 16 (67%) positive and 8 (33%) negative events. The majority of announcements were for Phase 3 clinical trials (N = 13, 54%), and for oncologic (N = 7, 29%) and neurologic (N = 6, 24%) indications. The median cumulative abnormal returns on the day of the announcement were 0.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.3, 13.4%; P = 0.02) for positive events and -2.0% (95% CI: -9.1, 0.7%; P = 0.04) for negative events, with statistically significant differences from zero. In the day immediately following the announcement, firms with positive events were associated with stock price corrections, with median cumulative abnormal returns falling to 0.4% (95% CI: -3.8, 12.3%; P = 0.33). For firms with negative announcements, the median cumulative abnormal returns were -1.7% (95% CI: -9.5, 1.0%; P = 0.03), and remained significantly negative over the two day event window. The magnitude of abnormal returns did not differ statistically by indication, by trial phase, or between biotechnology and pharmaceutical firms. The release of clinical trial results is an economically significant event and has meaningful effects on market value for large biopharmaceutical companies. Stock return underperformance due to negative events is greater in magnitude and persists longer than

  3. Distribution, stock composition and timing, and tagging response of wild Chinook Salmon returning to a large, free-flowing river basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiler, John H.; Masuda, Michele; Spencer, Ted R.; Driscoll, Richard J.; Schreck, Carl B.

    2014-01-01

    Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha returns to the Yukon River basin have declined dramatically since the late 1990s, and detailed information on the spawning distribution, stock structure, and stock timing is needed to better manage the run and facilitate conservation efforts. A total of 2,860 fish were radio-tagged in the lower basin during 2002–2004 and tracked upriver. Fish traveled to spawning areas throughout the basin, ranging from several hundred to over 3,000 km from the tagging site. Similar distribution patterns were observed across years, suggesting that the major components of the run were identified. Daily and seasonal composition estimates were calculated for the component stocks. The run was dominated by two regional components comprising over 70% of the return. Substantially fewer fish returned to other areas, ranging from 2% to 9% of the return, but their collective contribution was appreciable. Most regional components consisted of several principal stocks and a number of small, spatially isolated populations. Regional and stock composition estimates were similar across years even though differences in run abundance were reported, suggesting that the differences in abundance were not related to regional or stock-specific variability. Run timing was relatively compressed compared with that in rivers in the southern portion of the species’ range. Most stocks passed through the lower river over a 6-week period, ranging in duration from 16 to 38 d. Run timing was similar for middle- and upper-basin stocks, limiting the use of timing information for management. The lower-basin stocks were primarily later-run fish. Although differences were observed, there was general agreement between our composition and timing estimates and those from other assessment projects within the basin, suggesting that the telemetry-based estimates provided a plausible approximation of the return. However, the short duration of the run, complex stock structure, and

  4. Comovements of Returns and Volatility in International Stock Markets: A High-Frequency Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Piplack, J.; Beine, M.; Candelon, B.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes common factors in the continuous volatility component, co-extreme and co-jump behavior of a sample of stock market indices. In order to identify those components in stock price processes during a trading day we use high-frequency data and techniques. We show that in most of the

  5. Continuous-Time Models, Realized Volatilities, and Testable Distributional Implications for Daily Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Torben G.; Bollerslev, Tim; Frederiksen, Per Houmann

    arrival process. On applying our sequential test procedure to the thirty individual stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, the data suggest that it is important to allow for both time-varying diffusive volatility, jumps, and leverage effects in order to satisfactorily describe the daily stock...

  6. The asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns to domestic and international information based on a four-regime double-threshold GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Cathy W. S.; Yang, Ming Jing; Gerlach, Richard; Jim Lo, H.

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate the asymmetric reactions of mean and volatility of stock returns in five major markets to their own local news and the US information via linear and nonlinear models. We introduce a four-regime Double-Threshold GARCH (DTGARCH) model, which allows asymmetry in both the conditional mean and variance equations simultaneously by employing two threshold variables, to analyze the stock markets’ reactions to different types of information (good/bad news) generated from the domestic markets and the US stock market. By applying the four-regime DTGARCH model, this study finds that the interaction between the information of domestic and US stock markets leads to the asymmetric reactions of stock returns and their variability. In addition, this research also finds that the positive autocorrelation reported in the previous studies of financial markets may in fact be mis-specified, and actually due to the local market's positive response to the US stock market.

  7. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  8. The Impact of Foreign Investment Restrictions on the Stock Returns of Oil Sands Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugene Beaulieu

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available In December 2012, prompted by the proposed purchase of Nexen by the Chinese SOE CNOOC, the federal government announced revised guidelines for investments by state-owned enterprises (SOEs in the oil sands. Declaring the sale marked “the end of a trend and not the beginning of a trend,” Prime Minister Stephen Harper explained how the government would approach such decisions in the future, including placing the onus on foreign investors to demonstrate how deals would be of net benefit to Canada, as well as granting the industry minister the discretion to accept or deny proposed deals. Accounting for five per cent of Canadian GDP, $28 billion in government revenue and three per cent of all jobs nationwide, the oil sands are an integral component of Canada’s economy. The sector has long relied on foreign capital to finance projects, meaning that any move to deter outside investment could have profound consequences for the development of this critical economic asset. In this paper, the authors examine the impact of this policy change by measuring the stock returns of firms operating in the oil sands. Employing an event study analysis, they find empirical evidence that the government’s policy change has resulted in the material destruction of shareholder wealth, particularly in the case of the smaller oil companies. What is more, given the composition of the global oil industry has changed to one where SOEs dominate both reserves and production, is this a policy Canada can afford in the long term? “When we say that Canada is open for business, we do not mean that Canada is for sale to foreign governments.” - Prime Minister Stephen Harper, December 7, 2012 “…going forward, the [industry] minister will find the acquisition of control of a Canadian oil-sands business by a state-owned enterprise to be of net benefit, only in an exceptional circumstance.” - Prime Minister Stephen Harper, December 7, 2012 “A year after the new Investment

  9. Volatility Modeling, Seasonality and Risk-Return Relationship in GARCH-in-Mean Framework: The Case of Indian Stock and Commodity Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Brajesh Kumar; Singh, Priyanka

    2008-01-01

    This paper is based on an empirical study of volatility, risk premium and seasonality in risk-return relation of the Indian stock and commodity markets. This investigation is conducted by means of the General Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in the mean model (GARCH-in-Mean) introduced by Engle et al. (1987). A systematic approach to model volatility in returns is presented. Volatility clustering and asymmetric nature is examined for Indian stock and commodity markets. The risk-r...

  10. Metaheuristics for the dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilde, M; Doerner, K F; Hartl, R F

    2011-12-01

    The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15%. Moreover, improvements of up to 41% can be achieved for some test instances.

  11. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  12. Herd behaviour experimental testing in laboratory artificial stock market settings. Behavioural foundations of stylised facts of financial returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manahov, Viktor; Hudson, Robert

    2013-10-01

    Many scholars express concerns that herding behaviour causes excess volatility, destabilises financial markets, and increases the likelihood of systemic risk. We use a special form of the Strongly Typed Genetic Programming (STGP) technique to evolve a stock market divided into two groups-a small subset of artificial agents called ‘Best Agents’ and a main cohort of agents named ‘All Agents’. The ‘Best Agents’ perform best in term of the trailing return of a wealth moving average. We then investigate whether herding behaviour can arise when agents trade Dow Jones, General Electric, and IBM financial instruments in four different artificial stock markets. This paper uses real historical quotes of the three financial instruments to analyse the behavioural foundations of stylised facts such as leptokurtosis, non-IIDness, and volatility clustering. We found evidence of more herding in a group of stocks than in individual stocks, but the magnitude of herding does not contribute to the mispricing of assets in the long run. Our findings suggest that the price formation process caused by the collective behaviour of the entire market exhibit less herding and is more efficient than the segmented market populated by a small subset of agents. Hence, greater genetic diversity leads to greater consistency with fundamental values and market efficiency.

  13. New Risk Measure and Idiosyncratic Risk in Taiwan Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Yin-Ching Jan; Su-Ling Chiu; Jerry M. C. Wang

    2013-01-01

    Under the model developed by Merton (1987), the idiosyncratic risk would be important to explain the expected stock return. We follow the approach of Daniel and Titman (1998), and use the risk measure developed by Jan and Wang (2012) to examine whether idiosyncratic risk can play an important role in explaining the expected return in Taiwan stock market. We find that beta can¡¯t explain the expected return, and that idiosyncratic risk has a positive relation to expected returns for stocks wit...

  14. Abnormal Stock Market Returns to Announcements of M&A Banking Deals in Greece 1996-2013

    OpenAIRE

    Anastasios KARAMANOS; George BAKATSELOS; Roena AGOLLI

    2015-01-01

    This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strateg...

  15. Pengaruh Downside Beta, Upside Beta, Dan Beta Terhadap Expected Return (Studi Pada Saham Yang Termasuk Dalam 50 Leading Market Capitalization Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2012-2015)

    OpenAIRE

    Sinaga, Maria Goretty; Sulasmiyati, Sri

    2017-01-01

    Return or return on an investment is required by the investor. Most investors currently prefer shares in emerging markets. Return in the emerging market is not always symmetrical, it shows return in the emerging market is not normally distributed. The purposive of this research want to learn, compare, and explain about some model of stock risk. On this research downside risk expressed with beta downside. The models used in this research among others, dowside beta, upside beta, and beta. The k...

  16. STUDY LINKS SOLVING THE MAXIMUM TASK OF LINEAR CONVOLUTION «EXPECTED RETURNS-VARIANCE» AND THE MINIMUM VARIANCE WITH RESTRICTIONS ON RETURNS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria S. Prokhorova

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The article deals with a study of problemsof finding the optimal portfolio securitiesusing convolutions expectation of portfolioreturns and portfolio variance. Value of thecoefficient of risk, in which the problem ofmaximizing the variance - limited yieldis equivalent to maximizing a linear convolution of criteria for «expected returns-variance» is obtained. An automated method for finding the optimal portfolio, onthe basis of which the results of the studydemonstrated is proposed.

  17. The effects of common risk factors on stock returns: A detrended cross-correlation analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Qingsong; Yang, Bingchan

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we investigate the cross-correlations between Fama and French three factors and the return of American industries on the basis of cross-correlation statistic test and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA). Qualitatively, we find that the return series of Fama and French three factors and American industries were overall significantly cross-correlated based on the analysis of a statistic. Quantitatively, we find that the cross-correlations between three factors and the return of American industries were strongly multifractal, and applying MF-DCCA we also investigate the cross-correlation of industry returns and residuals. We find that there exists multifractality of industry returns and residuals. The result of correlation coefficients we can verify that there exist other factors which influence the industry returns except Fama three factors.

  18. Application of Markowitz model in analysing risk and return a case study of BSE stock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manas Pandey

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the optimal portfolio formation using real life data subject to two different constraint sets is attempted. It is a theoretical framework for the analysis of risk return choices. Decisions are based on the concept of efficient portfolios. Markowitz portfolio analysis gives as output an efficient frontier on which each portfolio is the highest return earning portfolio for a specified level of risk. The investors can reduce their risks and can maximize their return from the investment, The Markowitz portfolio selections were obtained by solving the portfolio optimization problems to get maximum total returns, constrained by minimum allowable risk level. Investors can get lot of information knowledge about how to invest when to invest and why to invest in the particular portfolio. It basically calculates the standard deviation and returns for each of the feasible portfolios and identifies the efficient frontier, the boundary of the feasible portfolios of increasing returns

  19. The risk-return relationship on macroeconomic announcement days : an empirical study of the Norwegian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Kopperud, Espen; Seljeseth, Camilla Røed

    2016-01-01

    On days when macroeconomic news in Norway is scheduled to be announced, we find a significant and linear relationship between the market beta and average daily excess return. Using Fama-Macbeth regressions, we estimate a negative market risk premium of -1.02% per month (-11.68% annualized). During our sample period from 2001-2015, the realized market risk premium is negative, amounting to -0.20% per month (-2.46% annualized). As a consequence, stocks with higher sensitivity to ...

  20. Statistical properties of short-selling and margin-trading activities and their impacts on returns in the Chinese stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yan; Gao, Yao

    2015-11-01

    We investigate the collective behaviors of short-selling and margin-trading between Chinese stocks and their impacts on the co-movements of stock returns by cross-correlation and partial correlation analyses. We find that the collective behaviors of margin-trading are largely attributed to the index cohesive force, while those of short-selling are mainly due to some direct interactions between stocks. Interestingly, the dominant role the finance industry plays in the collective behaviors of short-selling could make it more important in affecting the co-movement structure of stock returns by strengthening its relationship with the market index. By detecting the volume-return and volume-volatility relationships, we find that the investors of the two leverage activities are positively triggered by individual stock volatility first, and next, at the return level, margin-buyers show trend-following properties, while short-sellers are probably informative traders who trade on the information impulse of specific firms. However, the return predictability of the two leverage trading activities and their impacts on stock volatility are not significant. Moreover, both tails of the cumulative distributions of the two leverage trading activities are found following the stretched exponential law better than the power-law.

  1. Stock Return and Cash Flow Predictability: The Role of Volatility Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bollerslev, Tim; Xu, Lai; Zhou, Hao

    risk premium positively forecast both short-horizon returns and dividend growth rates. We also confirm that dividend yield positively forecasts long-horizon returns, but that it cannot forecast dividend growth rates. Our equilibrium-based “structural” factor GARCH model permits much more accurate...

  2. Chasing the deal with the money: Measuring the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of private equity funds to maximize their internal rate of return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Scarpati

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A number of scholars of private equity (“PE” have attempted to assess the ex-post returns, or performance, of PEs by adopting an ex-post perspective of asset pricing. In doing so a set of phenomena has been recognized that is thought to be specific to the PE sector, such as “money-chasing deal phenomenon” (Gompers and Lerner, 2000 and “performance persistence” (Lerner and Schoar, 2005. However, based on their continuing use of an ex-post perspective, few scholars have paid attention to the possible extent to which these and other PE phenomena may affect expected returns from PE investments. To address this problem this article draws on an ex-ante perspective of investment decision-making in suggesting how a number of drivers and factors of PE phenomena may produce “abnormal returns”, and that each of those drivers and factors should therefore be considered in accurately assessing the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of PE investments. In making these contributions we examined a private equity investment of a regional PE in Italy and administered a telephone questionnaire to 40 PEs in Italy and the UK and found principally that while size is the most important driver in producing abnormal returns illiquidity alone cannot explain the expected returns of PE investments (cf. Franzoni et al., 2012. Based on our findings we developed a predictive model of PE decision-making that draws on an ex-ante perspective of asset pricing and takes into account PE phenomena and abnormal returns. This model extends the work of Franzoni et al. (2012, Jegadeesh et al. (2009, and Korteweg and Sorensen (2010 who did not consider the possible influence of PE phenomena in decision-making and will also help PE managers in making better-informed decisions.

  3. An Indirect Impact of the Price to Book Value to the Stock Returns: An Empirical Evidence from the Property Companies in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hans Hananto Andreas

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This research empirically examines the influence of Dividend Payout Ratio (DPR, Return on Equity (ROE, Growth, and Degree of Financial Leverage (DFL on the Price to Book Value (PBV of the property companies in Indonesia. It also attempts to explore the indirect effects of the DPR, ROE, Growth, and DFL on the stock returns via the PBV. 36 property firms, which are listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange from 2007 to 2013, were selected to be analyzed using the Path Analysis. The result of this research indicates that the variable of growth is found to have a significant impact on PBV. Meanwhile, the DPR, ROE, and DFL were found to be insignificant. The DPR, ROE, Growth, and DFL were found to affect PBV simultaneously. This study also proved that the PBV has a significant effect on the stock returns, while the DPR and DFL were not. The study also found that the DPR, PBV, and DFL have simultaneously affected stock returns of the property companies in Indonesia. The finding of this study implied that to predict the stock returns of the property companies, the investors and companies should take into account the changes in the growth and PBV.

  4. Realizing stock market crashes: stochastic cusp catastrophe model of returns under time-varying volatility

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Kukačka, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 15, č. 6 (2015), s. 959-973 ISSN 1469-7688 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965; GA ČR GA13-32263S EU Projects: European Commission 612955 - FINMAP Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe model * Realized volatility * Bifurcations * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.794, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/barunik-0434202.pdf

  5. Expected Rate of Return on the Personal Investment in Education of No-Fee Preservice Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xuemin

    2013-01-01

    Return on personal investment is an important factor affecting the decision to invest in education. This article analyzes the personal education costs of no-fee preservice students, estimates and forecasts the return on their personal education investment, and compares the costs and benefits of for-fee preservice students and nonteaching students.…

  6. Behavior of Stock Price Variability over Trading and Nontrading Periods, and Daily Return Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sumiyana Sumiyana

    2007-09-01

    This study concludes that return variance over trading and nontrading periods, along with overnight and lunch break nontrading session, and the first and second trading session, has differed significantly. In addition, daily return volatility is also not identical significantly. Subsequently, this study used size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads and up-down market as control variables. This study contradicts to all prior studies. This study especially suggests contra evidence in comparisons with previous concepts and theories in regards to size, trading volume, bid-ask spreads, and up-down market as control variables.

  7. Modelling Changes in the Unconditional Variance of Long Stock Return Series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long return series. For the purpose, we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011...... show that the long-memory property in volatility may be explained by ignored changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecast accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all...... horizons for a subset of the long return series....

  8. Modelling changes in the unconditional variance of long stock return series

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we develop a testing and modelling procedure for describing the long-term volatility movements over very long daily return series. For this purpose we assume that volatility is multiplicatively decomposed into a conditional and an unconditional component as in Amado and Teräsvirta...... that the apparent long memory property in volatility may be interpreted as changes in the unconditional variance of the long series. Finally, based on a formal statistical test we find evidence of the superiority of volatility forecasting accuracy of the new model over the GJR-GARCH model at all horizons for eight...... subsets of the long return series....

  9. EFFECT OF GOLD PRICE VOLATILITY ON STOCK RETURNS:EXAMPLE OF TURKEY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filiz YILDIZ CONTUK

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the effect of fluctuations in gold prices on ISE 100 indexusing daily prices and the index data from 01.01.2009 to 31.12.2012. The rawdata has been converted into earningsyields and analyzed. The study firstdetermines whether or not the use of aGARCH model would beappropriate usinga heteroskedasticity test. The test resultsshow that there was an ARCH effect inboth variables, and that GARCH modeling could be used. The results obtainedfrom MGARCH modeling show that gold and stock exchange yields have beenaffected both by their own shocks and by shocks of each other

  10. The pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk in stock returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cosemans, M.

    2011-01-01

    This paper studies the pricing of long and short run variance and correlation risk. The predictive power of the market variance risk premium for returns is driven by the correlation risk premium and the systematic part of individual variance premia. Furthermore, I find that aggregate volatility risk

  11. Association between illness perceptions and return-to-work expectations in workers with common mental health symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Løvvik, Camilla; Øverland, Simon; Hysing, Mari; Broadbent, Elizabeth; Reme, Silje E

    2014-03-01

    Mental health symptoms (MHSs) may affect people's work capacity and lead to sickness absence and disability. Expectations and perceptions of illness have been shown to influence return to work (RTW) across health conditions, but we know little about illness perceptions and RTW-expectations in MHSs. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between illness perceptions and RTW-expectations in a group struggling with work participation due to MHSs. Cross-sectional associations between illness perceptions and return to work expectations at baseline were analyzed for 1,193 participants who reported that MHSs affected their work participation. The study was part of a randomized controlled trial evaluating the effect of job focused Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) combined with supported employment (IPS). Participants were from a working age population with diverse job status. There was a strong and salient relationship between illness perceptions and RTW-expectations. When adjusting for demographic and clinical variables, the components consequences, personal control, identity and illness concern remained significantly associated with uncertain and negative RTW-expectations. Less illness understanding remained significantly associated with uncertain RTW-expectations, while timeline and emotional representations remained significantly associated with negative RTW-expectations. In the fully adjusted model only the consequences component (believing that illness has more severe consequences) remained significantly associated with RTW-expectations. Openly asked, participants reported work, personal relationships and stress as main causes of their illness. In people with MHSs who struggle with work participation, perceptions and beliefs about their problems are strongly associated with their expectations to return to work.

  12. The Relationship between Stock Returns and Past Performance of Hotel Real Estate Industry in the US: Is Hotel Real Estate prone to overinvestment

    OpenAIRE

    Minye Zhang; Yongheng Deng

    2008-01-01

    Hotel real estate industry is an important economy in the U.S. This study examines the return patterns of hotel real estate stocks in the U.S. from 1990 to 2007. This study utilizes an integrated framework which includes the most critical explanatory variables to investigate the determinants of the contrarian or momentum profits of the hotel real estate industry. The study finds that the magnitude and persistence of future returns of hotel real estate stocks can be predicted based on past ret...

  13. Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect.

    OpenAIRE

    Boudoukh, Jacob; Richardson, Matthew; Whitelaw, Robert F

    1994-01-01

    The authors investigate the cross-sectional relation between industry-sorted stock returns and expected inflation, and they find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output. Stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation, while the reverse holds for cyclical industries. From a theoretical perspective, the authors describe a model that captures both (1) the cross-sectional variation in these relations across industries and (2...

  14. Workers' beliefs and expectations affect return to work over 12 months

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heymans, M.W.; Vet, H.C.W. de; Knol, D.L.; Bongers, P.M.; Koes, B.W.; Mechelen, W. van

    2006-01-01

    Background: Successful management of workers on sick leave due to low back pain depends on the identification by the occupational physician of modifiable prognostic factors in the early phase of sick-leave. The prognostic value of factors which influence the course of low back pain and return to

  15. Vasovagal Syncope and Blood Donor Return: Examination of the Role of Experience and Affective Expectancies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olatunji, Bunmi O.; Etzel, Erin N.; Ciesielski, Bethany G.

    2010-01-01

    Vasovagal sensations (e.g., dizziness, nausea, and fainting) are one of the main reasons people find blood donation unpleasant. A better understanding of predictors of vasovagal sensations during blood donation could inform interventions designed to increase donor return rates. The present investigation examined the extent to which experience with…

  16. The Role of Consumer Confidence as a Leading Indicator on Stock Returns: A Markov Switching Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Koy AYBEN

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Investor’s psychological and emotional factors lead to irrationality in financial decision making and anomalies in prices. Investor sentiment and psychology help to elucidate phenomena in financial markets that cannot be explained by traditional theory. The aim of this study is two-fold: it investigates whether mutual regime switching behavior exists between the consumer indices and equity index, and examines their dynamics in response to each other in different regimes. This study applies the Markov Regime Switching model to monthly data from the BIST100 Return Index, Bloomberg Confidence Index, TUIK Confidence Index, Real Sector Confidence Index for the period between 2007:01 and 2016:06. The results indicate if consumer indices point out negative signals, capital market still gains in normal periods of economy. If they only in a recession or an expansion regime do, each of the indices moves in the same direction.

  17. What do professional forecasters' stock market expectations tell us about herding, information extraction and beauty contests?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, M.; Schrimpf, A.

    2013-01-01

    We study how professional forecasters form equity market expectations based on a new micro-level dataset which includes rich cross-sectional information about individual characteristics. We focus on testing whether agents rely on the beliefs of others, i.e., consensus expectations, when forming...... their own forecast. We find strong evidence that the average of all forecasters' beliefs influences an individual's own forecast. This effect is stronger for young and less experienced forecasters as well as forecasters whose pay depends more on performance relative to a benchmark. Further tests indicate...

  18. Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Likidite Ölçülerinin Karşılaştırılması ve Likidite Volatilitesi Hisse Senedi Getirisi Arasındaki İlişki (Comparison of Liquidity Measures and The Relationship Between Volatility of Liquidity and Stock Returns in Turkish Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cüneyt AKAR

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to determine the relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity in Turkish Stock Market. It is also investigated whether various liquidity measures sort the stocks in the same way according to their liquidities. The data used in the study contains the closing prices, trading volumes and free floating of the stocks that are included in Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100 and covers the period from 28.02.2011 to 18.11.2014. Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH and Autoregressive Moving Average models (ARMA are used to perform empirical analysis. According to the results, it can not be determined the clear significant relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity. Results also show that while stock size and Amihud illiquidity criteria sort the stocks in the same way, stock return standard deviation criterion produces different ranking.

  19. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  20. Effects of daylight savings time changes on stock market volatility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berument, M Hakan; Dogan, Nukhet; Onar, Bahar

    2010-04-01

    The presence of daylight savings time effects on stock returns and on stock volatility was investigated using an EGARCH specification to model the conditional variance. The evidence gathered from the major United States stock markets for the period between 1967 and 2007 did not support the existence of the daylight savings time effect on stock returns or on volatility. Returns on the first business day following daylight savings time changes were not lower nor was the volatility higher, as would be expected if there were an effect.

  1. Company Stock in Pension Plans: How Costly Is It?

    OpenAIRE

    Meulbroek, Lisa

    2005-01-01

    Employees often hold substantial levels of company stock in their defined contribution pension plans, a practice widely recognized as risky. But holding company stock is not only risky, it is costly: employees who own company stock are not fully diversified, so expected returns on their portfolios are lower than equally risky, but fully diversified, portfolios. This paper investigates the costs of holding company stock and finds that the loss in diversification reduces the value of employees'...

  2. Expectation Returns and Households' Decision in the Schooling of Their Children in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Pakistan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Shahzad; Lurhathaiopath, Puangkaew; Matsushita, Shusuke

    2017-01-01

    This study aims to study households' expectations for their children's academic performance in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan. Education has a significant role in increasing the productivity and income level of an individual in a society. Household education, income, distance from school, gender discrimination within household and cost of education…

  3. Abnormal stock market returns to announcements of M&A banking deals in Greece 1996-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasios KARAMANOS

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This study has undertaken a comprehensive empirical analysis of the wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013. The purpose is to measure the performance of merger participants over the acquisition period as a deviation of how shareholders’ actual returns differ from expected returns conditional on the particular process of M&A. The authors develop a conceptual framework that integrates theoretical perspectives from economics, finance, organization theory, strategic management and human resource management to offer a broader process-oriented integrative model of the empirical evidence and theories suggested to explain acquisitions. The empirical analysis reports insignificant abnormal gains for acquiring banks, significant positive abnormal returns at 7,44% for acquired banks, and 2,91% positive abnormal returns for the combined entity, in the event window [-10;+1]. The findings indicate that, on average, the Greek bank mergers neither create nor destroy shareholder wealth. This result is consistent with the findings of other Greek event studies and the bulk of US and European event studies on M&A wealth effects. On average, acquired firm shareholders gain at the expense of the acquiring firm and market value of the combined entity appears to have little improvement around the announcement of the transaction. The conceptual framework explicitly describes that wealth effects of bank M&As in Greece over the period 1996-2013 may be a result of macroeconomic theory and perfectly competitive market, lack of strategic relatedness and synergy realization, managerial hubris, or unethical behavior of managers derived from expense preference approach of agency theory.

  4. Consent revisited: the impact of return of results on participants' views and expectations about trial participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarrant, Carolyn; Jackson, Clare; Dixon-Woods, Mary; McNicol, Sarah; Kenyon, Sara; Armstrong, Natalie

    2015-12-01

    Increasingly, the sharing of study results with participants is advocated as an element of good research practice. Yet little is known about how receiving the results of trials may impact on participants' perceptions of their original decision to consent. We explored participants' views of their decision to consent to a clinical trial after they received results showing adverse outcomes in some arms of the trial. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with a purposive sample of 38 women in the UK who participated in a trial of antibiotics in pregnancy. All had received results from a follow-up study that reported increased risk of adverse outcomes for children of participants in some of the trial intervention arms. Data analysis was based on the constant comparative method. Participants' original decisions to consent to the trial had been based on hope of personal benefit and assumptions of safety. On receiving the results, most made sense of their experience in ways that enabled them to remain content with their decision to take part. But for some, the results provoked recognition that their original expectations might have been mistaken or that they had not understood the implications of their decision to participate. These participants experienced guilt, a sense of betrayal by the maternity staff and researchers involved in the trial, and damage to trust. Sharing of study results is not a wholly benign practice, and requires careful development of suitable approaches for further evaluation before widespread adoption. © 2015 The Authors Health Expectations Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  5. Daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, obtained from Datastream

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leon Li

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “Testing and comparing the performance of dynamic variance and correlation models in value-at-risk estimation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 40, 116–135. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2017.02.006 (Li, 2017 [1]. Data on daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, as compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, are provided in this paper. The country indices comprise at least 80% of the stock market capitalization of each country. The data cover the period from January 1, 1990, through September 8, 2016, and include 6963 observations. All stock prices are stated in dollars.

  6. Daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, obtained from Datastream.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Leon

    2018-02-01

    The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled "Testing and comparing the performance of dynamic variance and correlation models in value-at-risk estimation. North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 40, 116-135. doi:10.1016/j.najef.2017.02.006 (Li, 2017) [1]. Data on daily stock index return for the Canadian, UK, and US equity markets, as compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International, are provided in this paper. The country indices comprise at least 80% of the stock market capitalization of each country. The data cover the period from January 1, 1990, through September 8, 2016, and include 6963 observations. All stock prices are stated in dollars.

  7. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  8. Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasasında Likidite Ölçülerinin Karşılaştırılması ve Likidite Volatilitesi Hisse Senedi Getirisi Arasındaki İlişki (Comparison of Liquidity Measures and The Relationship Between Volatility of Liquidity and Stock Returns in Turkish Stock Market)

    OpenAIRE

    Cüneyt AKAR

    2015-01-01

    This paper aims to determine the relationship between stock returns and volatility of liquidity in Turkish Stock Market. It is also investigated whether various liquidity measures sort the stocks in the same way according to their liquidities. The data used in the study contains the closing prices, trading volumes and free floating of the stocks that are included in Borsa Istanbul 100 Index (BIST100) and covers the period from 28.02.2011 to 18.11.2014. Generalized Autoregressive ...

  9. Expectations, Worries and Wishes: The Challenges of Returning to Home after Initial Hospital Rehabilitation for Traumatic Spinal Cord Injury

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Noe, Bodil Bjørnshave; Bjerrum, Merete; Angel, Sanne

    2014-01-01

    patients to address while the patient is hospitalized in order to balance the patient’s expectations and to reveal what is of importance to the patient. This qualitative study explores the expectations, wishes and worries patients have before they return home after hospital rehabilitation due to TSCI...... four categories of barriers and problems: “facing uncertainty when leaving the rehabilitation center and peers”, “hoping to get back to work and safe economy”, “needing understanding from the community”, and “relying on resilience of significant others”. These categories were combined into one major...... theme: “relations”. The findings indicate that there is a need for professionals to address patients´ close relations and to initiate dialog with patients and their families on how SCI may impact close relations in order to promote a good life on new terms....

  10. Application of Generalized Student’s T-Distribution In Modeling The Distribution of Empirical Return Rates on Selected Stock Exchange Indexes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Purczyńskiz Jan

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the application of the so called generalized Student’s t-distribution in modeling the distribution of empirical return rates on selected Warsaw stock exchange indexes. It deals with distribution parameters by means of the method of logarithmic moments, the maximum likelihood method and the method of moments. Generalized Student’s t-distribution ensures better fitting to empirical data than the classical Student’s t-distribution.

  11. Return Predictability, Model Uncertainty, and Robust Investment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lukas, Manuel

    Stock return predictability is subject to great uncertainty. In this paper we use the model confidence set approach to quantify uncertainty about expected utility from investment, accounting for potential return predictability. For monthly US data and six representative return prediction models, we...... find that confidence sets are very wide, change significantly with the predictor variables, and frequently include expected utilities for which the investor prefers not to invest. The latter motivates a robust investment strategy maximizing the minimal element of the confidence set. The robust investor...... allocates a much lower share of wealth to stocks compared to a standard investor....

  12. The "toxic dose" of system problems: why some injured workers don't return to work as expected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacEachen, Ellen; Kosny, Agnieszka; Ferrier, Sue; Chambers, Lori

    2010-09-01

    Introduction Most workers who incur an injury on the job follow a relatively straightforward path through a workers' compensation claim, recovery and return to work. However, a minority of compensation claims is prolonged and can be disproportionately costly. We conducted this qualitative study in order to gain an understanding of systemic, process-related problems affecting injured workers who had failed to return to work as expected. Method A total of 69 in-depth interviews were conducted with injured workers with complex and extended workers' compensation claims and with return-to-work (RTW) providers such as health care providers, insurers, legal advisors, and workplaces. The study was based in Ontario, Canada. A modified grounded theory analysis led to the identification of common mechanisms in RTW problems. Results We identify problems with return to work and extended workers' compensation claims in dysfunctions in organizational dynamics across RTW systems including the workplace, healthcare, vocational rehabilitation and workers' compensation. These system problems are difficult to identify because they appear as relatively mundane and bureaucratic. These appeared to have damaging effects on workers in the form of a 'toxic dose' affecting the worker beyond the initial injury. Conclusions Worker's problems with extended claims were linked to RTW policies that did not easily accommodate conflict or power imbalances among RTW parties and by social relations and processes that impeded communication about RTW situations and problems. Avenues for intervention are located in a shift to a critical lens to RTW process that addresses differences of knowledge, resources, and interests among different parties.

  13. Investigating the excess return of contrarian strategy in the active ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obtaining the appropriate rate of return is the most important expectation of investors in the investment process and different statategies have been used by investors to gain a required rate of return. Contrarian strategy is one the strategies used recently to predict the return of stock using the historical information. Contrarian ...

  14. Return on securities of the listed banks, using BET and BET-C indices of the Bucharest Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victoria FIRESCU

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The present work has great importance for the economic and financial area due to the fact that targets the relevance of the financial indicators in anticipation of the stock variation. The aim is to measure the correlation, the type and intensity, between the variation of stock market profitability and the profitability of the securities traded by banks in Romania, listed on the BSE. The research is approached transversely (banks in Romania listed on the stock market as well as longitudinally (from the date of listing on the Stock Exchange of each bank until 31.12.2016. Using the econometric model Eviews we tested the correlation between the profitability of BRD, BT, BCC bank`s securities and the profitability of Bucharest Stock Exchange, by BET and BET-C. The results show that the research hypothesis isn’t validated for any of those banks.

  15. Habit formation, surplus consumption and return predictability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Hyde, Stuart; Vinther Møller, Stig

    2010-01-01

    On an international post World War II dataset, we use an iterated GMM procedure to estimate and test the Campbell and Cochrane (1999, By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior. Journal of Political Economy 107, 205–251.) habit formation model with a time......-varying risk-free rate. In addition, we analyze the predictive power of the surplus consumption ratio for future stock and bond returns. We find that, although there are important cross-country differences and economically significant pricing errors, for the majority of countries in our sample the model gets...... significant information about future stock returns, also during the 1990s. In addition, in most countries the surplus consumption ratio is also a powerful predictor of future bond returns. Thus, the surplus consumption ratio captures time-varying expected returns in both stock and bond markets....

  16. RASIO KEUANGAN PENGUKUR KINERJA PERUSAHAAN DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPEKTASI RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yarnest Yarnest

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This research was intended to know and to describe BUMN firm performance listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange.It measured finance ratios and its impact to expectation return good stock partially and simultaneously.This observational object was corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange, period 2005-2009. Thisresearch used design ex post facto. Exhaustive observational corporate BUMN listed at Indonesian Stock Exchange(BEI were 13 firms. Because of little population, the method used was census method. Analysis techniquesused were analysis multiple regression, quiz f and quiz t, data processing by programs Aviews version 6.0. Theresult of observation showed that liquidity ratio, leverage ratio, activity ratio, profitability ratio and stock ratiocould measure simultaneous firm and performance impacted significant to expectation return stock. Activityratio consisted of average collection period and inventory turnover and stock ratio consisted of price earning ratioand book value per share partially impacted significant to expectation return stock. Meanwhile ratio was liquidity,leverage ratio. Profitability ratio partially did not impact significantly to expectation return stock. Stock ratiomeasured by book value per share constituting impacted as the dominant factor on exspectation return stock.

  17. An empirical study of real estate stock return behavior on the Nordic markets : – A 2003-2013 study

    OpenAIRE

    Mäki, David; Lundström, Martin

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis has made the stock markets a very turbulent place. Investors have therefore begun searching for stable and profitable investments. Nordic real estate has for decades steadily increased in value and the stocks of real estate companies are said to be less risky than the market. This has led to a view of them being a safe haven for risk adverse investors. Very few empirical studies have been done on how these supposedly safe stocks actually behave in the Nordic countries. Th...

  18. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  19. Optimal Portfolio Selection in Ex Ante Stock Price Bubble and Furthermore Bubble Burst Scenario from Dhaka Stock Exchange with Relevance to Sharpe’s Single Index Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javed Bin Kamal

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper aims at constructing an optimal portfolio by applying Sharpe’s single index model of capital asset pricing in different scenarios, one is ex ante stock price bubble scenario and stock price bubble and bubble burst is second scenario. Here we considered beginning of year 2010 as rise of stock price bubble in Dhaka Stock Exchange. Hence period from 2005 -2009 is considered as ex ante stock price bubble period. Using DSI (All share price index in Dhaka Stock Exchange as market index and considering daily indices for the March 2005 to December 2009 period, the proposed method formulates a unique cut off point (cut off rate of return and selects stocks having excess of their expected return over risk-free rate of return surpassing this cut-off point. Here, risk free rate considered to be 8.5% per annum (Treasury bill rate in 2009. Percentage of an investment in each of the selected stocks is then decided on the basis of respective weights assigned to each stock depending on respective ‘β’ value, stock movement variance representing unsystematic risk, return on stock and risk free return vis-à-vis the cut off rate of return. Interestingly, most of the stocks selected turned out to be bank stocks. Again we went for single index model applied to same stocks those made to the optimum portfolio in ex ante stock price bubble scenario considering data for the period of January 2010 to June 2012. We found that all stocks failed to make the pass Single Index Model criteria i.e. excess return over beta must be higher than the risk free rate. Here for the period of 2010 to 2012, the risk free rate considered to be 11.5 % per annum (Treasury bill rate during 2012.

  20. International Transmission Effects of Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Greece, Portugal and Spain since the Introduction of the Euro

    OpenAIRE

    Morales, Lucia

    2007-01-01

    This paper investigates the nature of volatility spillovers between stock returns and exchange rate changes for Greece, Spain and Portugal for the 1999-2006 period after the introduction of the Euro as well as the 1999-2001 and 2002-2003/May and 2003/June-2006 periods since the Euro has been introduced. We use an EGARCH model which takes into account whether bad news has the same impact on volatility as good news. We also investigate whether volatility spillovers between exchange rates and e...

  1. An Iterated GMM Procedure for Estimating the Campbell-Cochrane Habit Formation Model, with an Application to Danish Stock and Bond Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2010-01-01

    We suggest an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane, and we apply the approach on annual and quarterly Danish stock and bond returns. For comparative purposes we also estimate and test the standard constant relative risk...... covering more than 80 years there is absolutely no evidence of superior performance of the Campbell-Cochrane model. For the shorter and more recent quarterly data over a 20-30 year period, there is some evidence of counter-cyclical time-variation in the degree of risk-aversion, in accordance...

  2. An iterated GMM procedure for estimating the Campbell-Cochrane habit formation model, with an application to Danish stock and bond returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig V.

    We suggest an iterated GMM approach to estimate and test the consumption based habit persistence model of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), and we apply the approach on annual and quarterly Danish stock and bond returns. For comparative purposes we also estimate and test the standard CRRA model...... than 80 years there is absolutely no evidence of superior performance of the Campbell-Cochrane model. For the shorter and more recent quarterly data over a 20-30 year period, there is some evidence of counter-cyclical time-variation in the degree of risk-aversion, in accordance with the Campbell...

  3. Return Dynamics and Volatility Spillovers Between FOREX and Stock Markets in MENA Countries: What to Remember for Portfolio Choice?

    OpenAIRE

    Arfaoui Mongi; Ben Rejeb Aymen

    2015-01-01

    This article investigates the interdependence of stock-forex markets in MENA (Middle East and North Africa) countries for the February 26, 1999 to June 30, 2014 period. The analysis has been performed through three competing models: the VAR-CCC-GARCH model of Bollerslev [1990]; the VAR-BEKK-GARCH model of Engle and Kroner [1995]; and the VAR-DCC-GARCH model of Engle [2002]. Our findings confirm that both markets are interdependent and corroborate the stock and flow oriented approaches. We als...

  4. Price returns efficiency of the Shanghai A-Shares

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Wang Jiang; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Samsudin, Humaida Banu

    2014-06-01

    Beta measured from the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is the most widely used risk to estimate expected return. In this paper factors that influence Shanghai A-share stock return based on CAPM are explored and investigated. Price data of 312 companies listed on Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) from the year 2000 to 2011 are investigated. This study employed the Fama-MacBeth cross-sectional method to avoid weakness of traditional CAPM. In addition, this study improves the model by adjusting missing data. Findings of this study justifies that systematic risk can explain the portfolios' returns of China SSE stock market.

  5. Causalidade entre os retornos de mercados de capitais emergentes e desenvolvidos Causality between stock return rates: emerging versus developed capital markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagner Moura Lamounier

    2007-04-01

    Full Text Available Utilizando-se de instrumentais estatísticos para a análise de séries temporais, procurou-se verificar as relações entre os retornos dos principais mercados de capitais emergentes e dos principais mercados desenvolvidos. A amostra foi divida em dois períodos: entre 1995-2002 e entre 2003-2005, tendo em vista os momentos distintos dos mercados quanto à vulnerabilidade externa. No primeiro momento, apesar das diversas crises econômicas, verificou-se que apenas o retorno do mercado emergente da Rússia sofreu grandes impactos ante os choques dos retornos dos outros mercados. Entre 2003-2005, no entanto, os retornos de outros mercados emergentes, como o do Brasil e o do México, responderam de forma significativa aos choques nos retornos dos demais mercados analisados.Using statistical instruments for the analysis of time series, - this work aims to verify the relation of returns of stock investments between the main emerging and the developed capital markets. The sample was divided in two periods: 1995-2002 and 2003-2005, in view of their different external vulnerability moments. At the beginning, - in spite of - several economic crises, only Russia’s stock market returns - suffered great impacts, compared with those at other markets’. Between 2003-2005, however, the returns of other emerging markets, as Brazil’s and Mexico’s, answered in a more significant form to the shocks in the returns of other markets.

  6. Forecasting stock return volatility: A comparison between the roles of short-term and long-term leverage effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Zhiyuan; Liu, Li

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we extend the GARCH-MIDAS model proposed by Engle et al. (2013) to account for the leverage effect in short-term and long-term volatility components. Our in-sample evidence suggests that both short-term and long-term negative returns can cause higher future volatility than positive returns. Out-of-sample results show that the predictive ability of GARCH-MIDAS is significantly improved after taking the leverage effect into account. The leverage effect for short-term volatility component plays more important role than the leverage effect for long-term volatility component in affecting out-of-sample forecasting performance.

  7. Systematic Risk Changes, Negative Realized Excess Returns and Time-Varying CAPM Beta

    OpenAIRE

    Jiri Novak

    2015-01-01

    We make two methodological modifications to the method of testing CAPM beta and we show that these significantly affect inferences about the association between CAPM beta and stock returns. While the conventional beta proxy is indeed largely unrelated to realized stock returns (in fact the relationship is slightly negative), using forward-looking beta and eliminating unrealistic assumptions about expected market returns makes it (highly) significant. In addition, we show that complementary em...

  8. "Wrath Will Drip in the Plains of Macedonia" : Expectations of Nero's Return in the Egyptian Sibylline Oracles (Book 5), 2 Thessalonians, and Ancient Historical Writings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kooten, G.H.; Hilhorst, A.; van Kooten, G.H.

    2005-01-01

    George H. van Kooten, “‘Wrath Will Drip in the Plains of Macedonia’: Expectations of Nero’s Return in the Egyptian Sibylline Oracles (Book 5), 2 Thessalonians, and Ancient Historical Writings,” in The Wisdom of Egypt: Jewish, Early Christian, and Gnostic Essays in Honour of Gerard P. Luttikhuizen

  9. Extreme Value Theory: An Application to the Peruvian Stock Market Returns || Teoría de valores extremos: una aplicación a los retornos bursátiles peruanos

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rodríguez, Gabriel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Using daily observations of the index and stock market returns for the Peruvian case from January 3, 1990 to May 31, 2013, this paper models the distribution of daily loss probability, estimates maximum quantiles and tail probabilities of this distribution, and models the extremes through a maximum threshold. This is used to obtain the better measurements of the Value at Risk (VaR and the Expected Short-Fall (ES at 95% and 99%. One of the results on calculating the maximum annual block of the negative stock market returns is the observation that the largest negative stock market return (daily is 12.44% in 2011. The shape parameter is equal to -0.020 and 0.268 for the annual and quarterly block, respectively. Then, in the first case we have that the non-degenerate distribution function is Gumbel-type. In the other case, we have a thick-tailed distribution (Fréchet. Estimated values of the VaR and the ES are higher using the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD in comparison with the Normal distribution and the differences at 99.0% are notable. Finally, the non-parametric estimation of the Hill tail-index and the quantile for negative stock market returns shows quite instability. || Usando observaciones diarias del índice y los retornos bursátiles para el caso Peruano desde el 3 de enero de 1990 hasta el 31 de mayo de 2013, este documento modela la distribución de las probabilidades de pérdidas diarias, estima los cuantiles máximos y las colas de la distribución y finalmente, modela los valores extremos usando un umbral máximo. Todo esto es usado para obtener una mejor medida del valor en riesgo (VaR y de la pérdida esperada (ES al 95% y 99% de confianza. Uno de los resultados de calcular el bloque máximo anual de los retornos bursátiles negativos es la observación que el retorno bursátil más negativo (diario es 12.44% en el 2011. El parámetro de forma es igual a -0.020 y 0.268 para los bloques anuales y trimestrales

  10. A study on the effects of quarterly financial reports on systematic risk and return on assets: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roozbeh Hedayat Mazhari

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Financial statements are considered as primary sources of information for most investors to make investment decisions. A crystal clear and comprehensive annual report helps many interested parties about the performance of any business unit. However, many rules and regulations ask management teams of organizations to provide quarterly financial results. In this paper, we perform an empirical investigation to study the effects of quarterly financial reports on three ratios including systematic risk, return on assets and firm size. The proposed study gathers the necessary data from 72 firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period of 2000-2006. The study determined the performances of these 72 firms before and after the releases of three quarterly reports and using Freedman test determined whether there were any meaningful differences between two groups of data or not. The results of Freedman test indicate that there were not any meaningful differences between stock performance and systematic risk before and after quarterly results. The survey also examines the relationship between systematic risk and size of firms using Pearson correlation test and the results indicate there were some meaningful differences size and systematic risk.

  11. Implied Volatility and Rebalancing Timing: Market cycles and the relationship between implied volatility indices and stock index returns.

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Niklas; Rønning, Harald

    2017-01-01

    Master's thesis in Finance This paper studies market timing based upon the level of the VIX and compares VIX based portfolio rotations with modern rebalancing practices. The thesis analyses the outcomes of the different rebalancing and trading strategies, and compare them through different performance measures. The study finds that on average, rebalancing strategies based on the level of the VIX does not have significant positive returns compared to the standard dynamic rebalancing scheme ...

  12. An Exploration of the Factors Considered When Forming Expectations for Returning to Work following Sickness Absence Due to a Musculoskeletal Condition.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amanda E Young

    Full Text Available Workers' own expectations for returning to work following a period of sickness absence have been found to be one of the best predictors of future work status; however, there is a limited understanding of why people expect what they do. The current study was undertaken with the aim of determining what people take into consideration when forming their expectations for returning to work.Thirty-four people (8 women, 26 men, who were off work due to a musculoskeletal condition, participated in one of 14 focus groups. Participants were aged 25 to 65 (M = 45, SD = 12.6, and all had been out of work for 3 months or less.All participants reported expecting to return to work, with the most common timeframe being approximately 30 days (Range = 1 day-12 months. When explaining what they thought about when forming their expectations, participants referenced numerous considerations. Much of what was spoken about could be compartmentalized to reflect features of themselves, their condition, or their broader environmental contexts. Participant's subjective experience of these features influenced his or her expectations. Prominent themes included concerns about employability, a desire to get back to normal, no job to go back to, mixed emotions, re-injury concerns, the judgments of workplace stakeholders, being needed by their employer, waiting for input, until the money runs out, and working out what was in their best interest.Indications are that many of the reported considerations are amenable to intervention, suggesting opportunities to assist workers in the process of returning to work.

  13. Foreign institutional investments in India: An empirical analysis of dynamic interactions with stock market return and volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vaishali S. Dhingra

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates interactions of foreign institutional investments with market returns and market volatility in India using both static and dynamic models based on daily data. The findings of both models show foreign investors as positive feedback traders while investing in the Indian market, and as negative feedback traders during their withdrawal. Using the impulse response functions based on vector autoregression, we find strong evidence that foreign institutional investments destabilise the market, particularly with selling activities, as they significantly increase the volatility.

  14. The relationship between size, book-to-market equity ratio, earnings–price ratio, and return for the Tehran stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Sadeghi Lafmejani

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to determine whether or there is any difference between the returns of two value and growth portfolios, sorted by price-to-earnings (P/E and price-to-book value (P/BV, in terms of the ratios of market sensitivity to index (β, firm size and market liquidity in listed firms in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE over the period 2001-2008. The selected firms were collected from those with existing two-consecutive positive P/E and P/BV ratios and by excluding financial and holding firms. There were five independent variables for the proposed study of this paper including P/E, P/B, market size, market sensitivity beta (β and market liquidity. In each year, we first sort firms in non-decreasing order and setup four set of portfolios with equal firms. Therefore, the first portfolio with the lowest P/E ratio is called value portfolio and the last one with the highest P/E ratio is called growth portfolio. This process was repeated based on P/BV ratio to determine value and growth portfolios, accordingly. The study investigated the characteristics of two portfolios based on firm size, β and liquidity. The study has implemented t-student and Levin’s test to examine different hypotheses and the results have indicated mix effects of market sensitivity, firm size and market liquidity on returns of the firms in various periods.

  15. Has microblogging changed stock market behavior? Evidence from China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Xi; Shen, Dehua; Zhang, Wei

    2016-06-01

    This paper examines the stock market behavior for a long-lived subset of firms in Shanghai and Shenzhen CSI 300 Index (CSI 300 Index) both before and after the establishment of firms' Microblogging in Sina Weibo. The empirical results show a significant increase in the relative trading volume as well as the decreases in the daily expected stock return and firm-level volatility in the post-Sina Weibo period. These findings suggest that Sina Weibo as an alternative information interaction channel has changed the information environment for individual stock, enhanced the speed of information diffusion and therefore changed the overall stock market behavior.

  16. Expectation versus Reality: The Impact of Utility on Emotional Outcomes after Returning Individualized Genetic Research Results in Pediatric Rare Disease Research, a Qualitative Interview Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cacioppo, Cara N; Chandler, Ariel E; Towne, Meghan C; Beggs, Alan H; Holm, Ingrid A

    2016-01-01

    Much information on parental perspectives on the return of individual research results (IRR) in pediatric genomic research is based on hypothetical rather than actual IRR. Our aim was to understand how the expected utility to parents who received IRR on their child from a genetic research study compared to the actual utility of the IRR received. We conducted individual telephone interviews with parents who received IRR on their child through participation in the Manton Center for Orphan Disease Research Gene Discovery Core (GDC) at Boston Children's Hospital (BCH). Five themes emerged around the utility that parents expected and actually received from IRR: predictability, management, family planning, finding answers, and helping science and/or families. Parents expressing negative or mixed emotions after IRR return were those who did not receive the utility they expected from the IRR. Conversely, parents who expressed positive emotions were those who received as much or greater utility than expected. Discrepancies between expected and actual utility of IRR affect the experiences of parents and families enrolled in genetic research studies. An informed consent process that fosters realistic expectations between researchers and participants may help to minimize any negative impact on parents and families.

  17. Who has really paid for the Reconstruction of East Germany? Expected and Realized Returns on Real Estate Investments in East and West Germany in the 1990s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Kiesewetter

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the profitability of investments in residential property in Germany after unification with a focus on the comparison of East and West Germany. Calculations are carried out for (1 the after-tax return an investor might have expected at the beginning of the 1990s, and (2 the after-tax return that has been realized ten years after. We compare a set of statistical data for investments in fifty major cities by using complete financial budgeting. The results show that tax subsidies could not always protect investors from losing money, but they have boosted realized returns after tax considerably. Therefore, it was indeed the taxpayers, not the investors, who have borne the cost of reconstructing East Germany.

  18. Bond return predictability in expansions and recessions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engsted, Tom; Møller, Stig Vinther; Jensen, Magnus David Sander

    We document that over the period 1953-2011 US bond returns are predictable in expansionary periods but unpredictable during recessions. This result holds in both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses and using both univariate regressions and combination forecasting techniques. A simulation study...... but negative in recessions. The results are also consistent with tests showing that the expectations hypothesis of the term structure holds in recessions but not in expansions. However, the results for bonds are in sharp contrast to results for stocks showing that stock returns are predictable in recessions...... but not in expansions. Thus, our results indicate that there is not a common predictive pattern of stock and bond returns associated with the state of the economy....

  19. The Effect of Global Political Events in the Arab Spring on Stock Returns: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    İbrahim BOZKURT

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available International events or news have an effect on countries’ internal and external policies and since this effect is reflected on the markets, the decisions of domestic and foreign investors are revised continually. This study aims to analyze the effect of international good and bad news related to Iraq, Iran and Syria that are located in the Arab spring region and are border to Turkey, on the returns of ISE-100 index The study utilized event study methodology, international news related to Iraq, Iran and Syria between 2010-2013 and the daily closing price data of MSCI Emerging Markets Index and ISE-100 index between 2010-2013 constituted the dataset. At the end of the study, it was found that only the Iran-related news had effect on ISE-100 index.

  20. Test Of Capital Asset Pricing Model On Stocks At Karachi Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arbab Khalid Cheema

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically test the single-factor CAPM developed by Sharpe (1964, Lintner (1965 and Jan Mossin (1966 and others, which proposes that the expected returns of capital assets are dependent on their risk relative to the entire market which is quantified by a correlation co-efficient between asset returns and market returns. The test of 20 stocks at Karachi Stock Exchange have shown that though, the beta co-efficients are significant, their strength is considerably weak. Therefore, other factors which are unaccounted for in this model are important in determining risk and return. In addition, betas are less relevant in a volatile emerging capital markets like the KSE. Thus, the multi-factor models are better than the classical CAPM at determining the risk-return relationship. However, the single-factor CAPM remains in practice beacause of its simplicity.

  1. Investment Strategy Based on Aviation Accidents: Are there abnormal returns?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcos Rosa Costa

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates whether an investment strategy based on aviation accidents can generate abnormal returns. We performed an event study considering all the aviation accidents with more than 10 fatalities in the period from 1998 to 2009 and the stock market performance of the respective airlines and aircraft manufacturers in the days after the event. The tests performed were based on the model of Campbell, Lo & MacKinlay (1997 for definition of abnormal returns, by means of linear regression between the firms’ stock returns and the return of a market portfolio used as a benchmark. This enabled projecting the expected future returns of the airlines and aircraft makers, for comparison with the observed returns after each event. The result obtained suggests that an investment strategy based on aviation accidents is feasible because abnormal returns can be obtained in the period immediately following an aviation disaster.

  2. Psychosocial job conditions, fear avoidance beliefs and expected return to work following acute coronary syndrome: a cross-sectional study of fear-avoidance as a potential mediator.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Söderberg, Mia; Rosengren, Annika; Gustavsson, Sara; Schiöler, Linus; Härenstam, Annika; Torén, Kjell

    2015-12-21

    Despite improvements in treatment, acute coronary syndrome remains a substantial cause for prolonged sick absences and premature retirement. Knowledge regarding what benefits return to work is limited, especially the effect of psychological processes and psychosocial work factors. The purposes of this cross-sectional study were two-fold: to examine associations between adverse psychosocial job conditions and fear-avoidance beliefs towards work, and to determine whether such beliefs mediated the relationship between work conditions and expected return to work in acute coronary syndrome survivors. Study inclusion criteria: acute myocardial infarction or unstable angina diagnosis, below 65 years of age, being a resident in the West county of Sweden and currently working. In all, 509 individuals (21.8 % women) accepted study participation and for whom all data of study interest were available for analysis. Psychosocial work variables; job demand-control and effort-reward imbalance, were assessed with standard questionnaire batteries. Linear regression models were used to investigate relationships between psychosocial factors and fear-avoidance, and to evaluate mediator effects for fear-avoidance. Both total sample and gender stratified analyses were calculated. Fear-avoidance beliefs about work were associated to psychosocial job environments characterized by high strain (β 1.4; CI 1.2-1.6), active and passive work and high effort-reward imbalance (β 0.6; CI 0.5-0.7). Further, such beliefs also mediated the relationship between adverse work conditions and expected time for return to work. However, these results were only observed in total sample analyses or among or male participants. For women only high strain was linked to fear-avoidance, and these relationships became non-significant when entering chosen confounders. This cross-sectional study showed that acute coronary syndrome survivors, who laboured under adverse psychosocial work conditions, held fear

  3. Renewable energy stocks and risk : (systematic risk factors in the renewable energy sector)

    OpenAIRE

    Strømme, Janne

    2016-01-01

    The renewable energy sector is an industry that expects tremendously growth in years to come. This opens interesting investment opportunities for investors and poses challenges for government and legislators as to how to best support the change to a low-carbon emission energy mix. In this study, we have explored the risk and returns characteristics for stocks, focusing on macroeconomic systematic risk. The stock returns from renewable energy sector was regressed on the macroeconomic variables...

  4. Applying Portfolio Selection: A Case of Indonesia Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Praptiningsih

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study has three objectives. First, we investigate whether Modern Portfolio Theory can be applied on the financial decisions that made by investors or individual in order to increase their wealth through investment activities. Second, we examine the real behavior of each asset in terms of capital assets pricing models. Third, we determine whether our portfolio is the best model to produce a higher return in a given level of risk or a lowest risk in a particular level of return. It is found that three different stocks listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange have a positive relationship with market returns. The reactions of the investor regarding these stocks are not influenced by each other. Lastly, the minimum variance portfolio (MVP point which represents the single portfolio with the lowest possible level of standard deviation, occurs when the expected return of portfolio is approximately 2.2 percent at a standard deviation of 8.8 percent.

  5. Jump dynamics and volatility: Oil and the stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiou, Jer-Shiou; Lee, Yen-Hsien

    2009-01-01

    Our study distinguishes itself from the prior studies within the oil and financial literature by not only examining the asymmetric effects of oil prices on stock returns, but also exploring the importance of structure changes in this dependency relationship. We retrieve daily data on S and P 500 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil transactions covering the period from 1 January 1992 to 7 November 2006, and then transform the available data into daily returns. In contrast to the extant literature, in this study, consideration of expected, unexpected and negative unexpected oil price fluctuations is incorporated into the model of stock returns; we also focus on the ways in which oil price volatility, as opposed to general macroeconomic variables, can influence the stock market. We go on to implement the ARJI (Autoregressive Conditional Jump Intensity) model with structure changes, from which we conclude that high fluctuations in oil prices have asymmetric unexpected impacts on S and P 500 returns. (author)

  6. Evidências empirícas sobre a relação entre EVA e Retorno Acionário nas empresas brasileiras - Empirical evidence on the relationship beween EVA and Stock Returns in brazilian firms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Otavio Ribeiro de Medeiros

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo fornece evidências empíricas sobre a relação entre Valor Econômico Adicionado (EVA e retornos acionários de empresas brasileiras. A relação entre essas variáveis têm sido motivo de controvérsia nos últimos anos, com alguns autores encontrando associações significativas entre elas, enquanto outros não encontrando nenhuma. A hipótese de que o EVA afeta os retornos acionários é testada através de regressão linear, utilizando-se modelos alternativos. A amostra é composta de empresas negociadas na mais importante bolsa de valores brasileira. Uma comparação entre os resultados deste estudo com os de estudos anteriores mostram que resultados significativos dependem da determinação das variáveis apropriadas (retornos acionários versus preços das ações, bem como da correta relação dinâmica entre a variável dependente e a independente. This paper provides empirical evidence on the relationship between Economic Value Added (EVA and stock returns in Brazilian firms. This relationship between these variables has been subject to controversy in recent years, with some authors finding significant associations between them while others find none. The hypothesis that EVA affects stock returns is tested through linear regression, using alternative models. The sample is comprised of companies that are traded on the most important Brazilian stock exchange. A comparison of the outcomes of our study with those of previous studies shows that significant results depend on determination of the appropriate variables (stock returns versus stock prices, as well as of the correct dynamic structure between the dependent and the explanatory variable.

  7. Testing for Expected Return and Market Price of Risk in Chinese A-B Share Market: A Geometric Brownian Motion and Multivariate GARCH Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhu, Jie

    There exist dual-listed stocks which are issued by the same company in some stock markets. Although these stocks bare the same firm-specific risk and enjoy identical dividends and voting policies, they are priced differently. Some previous studies show this seeming deviation from the law of one p...

  8. Testing the Semi-Strong Form efficiency to differentiate stock returns between Islamic and Non-Islamic firms: Empirical evidence using dividend announcement from Malaysia.

    OpenAIRE

    Saya, Muhammad Mujtuba

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation conducts an event study in the specific area of Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). It concentrates on the semi-strong form and focuses on exploring the impact of dividend announcements on share prices’ of Malaysian stock market (Bursa Malaysia). Further, it commences a comparison of Islamic (Shariah) compliant stocks and non-Islamic compliant stocks. A sample of 60 companies (30 Shariah and 30 Non-Shraiah compliant) were selected from the main board of Bursa Malaysia. An eve...

  9. Conducting event studies on a small stock exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bartholdy, Jan; Olson, Dennis; Peare, Paula

    and power in statistical tests. Second, trade to trade returns should be used. Third, one should not expect to consistently detect abnormal performance of less than about 1% (or perhaps even 2%), unless the sample contains primarily thickly traded stocks. Fourth, nonparametric tests are generally preferable...

  10. Managing risk and expected financial return from selective expansion of operating room capacity: mean-variance analysis of a hospital's portfolio of surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes

    2003-07-01

    Surgeons using the same amount of operating room (OR) time differ in their achieved hospital contribution margins (revenue minus variable costs) by >1000%. Thus, to improve the financial return from perioperative facilities, OR strategic decisions should selectively focus additional OR capacity and capital purchasing on a few surgeons or subspecialties. These decisions use estimates of each surgeon's and/or subspecialty's contribution margin per OR hour. The estimates are subject to uncertainty (e.g., from outliers). We account for the uncertainties by using mean-variance portfolio analysis (i.e., quadratic programming). This method characterizes the problem of selectively expanding OR capacity based on the expected financial return and risk of different portfolios of surgeons. The assessment reveals whether the choices, of which surgeons have their OR capacity expanded, are sensitive to the uncertainties in the surgeons' contribution margins per OR hour. Thus, mean-variance analysis reduces the chance of making strategic decisions based on spurious information. We also assess the financial benefit of using mean-variance portfolio analysis when the planned expansion of OR capacity is well diversified over at least several surgeons or subspecialties. Our results show that, in such circumstances, there may be little benefit from further changing the portfolio to reduce its financial risk. Surgeon and subspecialty specific hospital financial data are uncertain, a fact that should be taken into account when making decisions about expanding operating room capacity. We show that mean-variance portfolio analysis can incorporate this uncertainty, thereby guiding operating room management decision-making and reducing the chance of a strategic decision being made based on spurious information.

  11. An autocatalytic network model for stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caetano, Marco Antonio Leonel; Yoneyama, Takashi

    2015-02-01

    The stock prices of companies with businesses that are closely related within a specific sector of economy might exhibit movement patterns and correlations in their dynamics. The idea in this work is to use the concept of autocatalytic network to model such correlations and patterns in the trends exhibited by the expected returns. The trends are expressed in terms of positive or negative returns within each fixed time interval. The time series derived from these trends is then used to represent the movement patterns by a probabilistic boolean network with transitions modeled as an autocatalytic network. The proposed method might be of value in short term forecasting and identification of dependencies. The method is illustrated with a case study based on four stocks of companies in the field of natural resource and technology.

  12. What moves the primary stock and bond markets? Influence of macroeconomic factors on bond and equity issues in Malaysia and Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Ameer, Rashid

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic factors on the stock and bond market activities in two Asian countries. We examine the influence of interest rate changes, expected inflation rate, and stock market returns on aggregate stock and bond issuance in Malaysia and Korea. Using vector autoregressive models (VARs) and variance decomposition techniques, our result show that dynamics of equity and bond issuance in both countries vary significantly. Our findings show that there has been a...

  13. Classifying Returns as Extreme

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2014-01-01

    I consider extreme returns for the stock and bond markets of 14 EU countries using two classification schemes: One, the univariate classification scheme from the previous literature that classifies extreme returns for each market separately, and two, a novel multivariate classification scheme tha...

  14. Stock Price Reaction to Announcements of Right Issues and Debenture Issues: Evidence from Colombo Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Udani Chathurika Edirisinghe

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the stock market reaction for right issues and debenture issues of Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE during the period of 2005 to 2011 while providing evidence for the research question “how do stock prices react to the debt and equity issue announcements of listed companies in CSE?” In investigating the ex-ante and ex-post market reactions the study employees event study methodology, while predicting abnormal returns, based on three alternative normal/expected returns modeling methods, namely Mean Adjusted Model, Market Adjusted Model, and Capital Asset Pricing Model. When testing the alternative hypothesis, whether stock prices significantly reacts to the announcement of right & debenture issues, results of all models show positive market reaction during the 30 days prior to the announcement and react negatively from 2 days after the announcements for right issues, but for debenture issues market reacted negatively during the period prior to debenture issues and continue to do the same during the post event period. Although the magnitude and significance of abnormal return generated through three alternatives methods differ, the pattern of the CAAR of all models are similar. Thus, as far as the speed of the price adjustment is concerned it seems that the CSE is not efficient.

  15. The relationship between information content of depreciation and abnormal return and future benefits in manufacturing companies in Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Zare

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In present study by virtue of the importance of  the fiscal statement contents and illiquid items ignored by the merchant the depreciation contents relation with abnormal return of the shares and future benefits are examined in order to influence the items under consideration of the investors to take related decisions; 94 companies were selected from the accessible universe in five years (2006-2010 to have the data necessary for the study in order to achieve the goal. The simple and multivariable regression statistical techniques Chow and Hausman  Test were used to test the hypotheses. The significant test was conducted for the paradigms by using the ‘F’ and ‘T’ statistics. The study findings show there is no relation between the depreciation expense and abnormal return and there is a significant and positive relation between the depreciation expense and future benefits.Key Words: Abnormal return, Information Contents, depreciation, abnormal return.

  16. The Impact of the Relaxation of Visits by Mainland China Tourists to Taiwan on Stock Returns and Financial Performance: The Case of Listed Tourism Industry Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Erin H. Kao; You-De Dai

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to examine the impact on listed tourism industry firms of the relaxation of the policy to allow Mainland China tourists to visit Taiwan directly for sightseeing from a financial viewpoint. First, before the implementation of the policy, this study applied the "event study method" to investigate the effects on the stock prices of the announcement of the open policy. The results indicate that, except for the Aviation industry, the announcement has given rise to sign...

  17. Oil risk in oil stocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Wang, L

    2008-01-01

    We assess the oil price sensitivities and oil risk premiums of NYSE listed oil & gas firms' returns by using a two-step regression analysis under two different arbitrage pricing models. Thus, we apply the Fama and French (1992) factor returns in a study of oil stocks. In all, we find that the return

  18. Comparable stocks, boundedly rational stock markets and IPO entry rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jay Chok

    Full Text Available In this study, we examine how initial public offerings (IPO entry rates are affected when stock markets are boundedly rational and IPO firms infer information from their counterparts in the market. We hypothesize a curvilinear relationship between the number of comparable stocks and initial public offerings (IPO entry rates into the NASDAQ Stock Exchange. Furthermore, we argue that trading volume and changes in stock returns partially mediates the relationship between the number of comparable stocks and IPO entry rates. The statistical evidence provides strong support for the hypotheses.

  19. What drives credit rating changes? : a return decomposition approach

    OpenAIRE

    Cho, Hyungjin; Choi, Sun Hwa

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relative importance of a shock to expected cash flows (i.e., cash-flow news) and a shock to expected discount rates (i.e., discount-rate news) in credit rating changes. Specifically, we use a Vector Autoregressive model to implement the return decomposition of Campbell and Shiller (Review of Financial Studies, 1, 1988, 195) and Vuolteenaho (Journal of Finance, 57, 2002, 233) to extract cash-flow news and discount-rate news from stock returns at the firm-level. We find ...

  20. Market Efficiency Analysis at the Stockholm Stock Exchange: Measuring Intraday Stock Price Performance around Interim Reports of the OMXS30 Large Cap Stocks - An Event Study Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Tames Blanco, Juan Marcelo; Nsiah, Samuel Osei

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to perform event studies that determine the level of efficiency of twenty-two large cap stocks from the OMXS30 Index. Under the event study methodology, analysts’ expectations, the standard Capital Asset Pricing Model and a set of parametric tests are implemented. As a result, significant evidence is found on the existence of intraday abnormal returns at the exact moment of an interim report publication. However, further evidence on market corrections state effic...

  1. Testing for regime-switching CAPM on Zagreb Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tihana Škrinjarić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The standard Capital Asset Pricing Model assumes that a linear relationship exists between the risk (beta and the expected excess return of a stock. However, empirical findings have shown over the years that this relationship varies over time. Stock markets undergo phases of greater and smaller volatility in which beta varies accordingly (undergoes different regimes. Given that the Croatian capital market is still insufficiently investigated, the aim of this paper is to explore the possibility of a non-linear relationship between the stock risk and return. Linear and Markov-switching models (Hamilton 1989 are examined on the Zagreb Stock Exchange based on monthly data on 21 stocks, ranging from January 2005 to December 2013. In that way, investors can use the results based on the best model when making decisions about buying stocks. Since this is one of the first papers on regime-switching on the Croatian capital market, it will hopefully contribute to the existing literature on investing.

  2. PENGARUH LABA AKUNTANSI DAN ARUS KAS TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH YANG TERDAFTAR DI JAKARTA ISLAMIC INDEX TAHUN 2007-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elvina Widowati

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Capital market is a financial institution, where investors can invest their funds in securities. Establishment of the Jakarta Islamic Index is expected to improve investor confidence to develop the investment in the securities of the sharia. The one of investing purpose is to get a return as an advantage. The information of earnings and cash flow may cause investors action toward the company's stock. This study aims to determine the effect of accounting earnings and cash flow toward stock return. The data which used are secondary data such as company’s financial reports and stock prices. The population in this study are stocks listed in the Jakarta Islamic Index 2007-2008. The sample which used in this study are 32 companies. Technique of sampling that is used in this study is purposive sampling method. The data analysis that used is multiple regression analysis. The Regression analysis is used to test the effect of accounting earnings variable and cash flows variable toward stock returns. The analysis results shown that both independent variables have simultaneously influence to the dependent variable, and individually only accounting earnings influence significantly to the stock returns. Meanwhile, the total cash flow does not influence the stock return variable.Based on the results, the suggestion for further research is able to extend the period of observation, using other variables are not described in this study.

  3. Predictable return distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Thomas Quistgaard

    trace out the entire distribution. A univariate quantile regression model is used to examine stock and bond return distributions individually, while a multivariate model is used to capture their joint distribution. An empirical analysis on US data shows that certain parts of the return distributions......-of-sample analyses show that the relative accuracy of the state variables in predicting future returns varies across the distribution. A portfolio study shows that an investor with power utility can obtain economic gains by applying the empirical return distribution in portfolio decisions instead of imposing...

  4. A new look at red pine financial returns in the Lake States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    David C. Lothner; Dennis P. Bradley

    1984-01-01

    Describes the financial performance of red pine on site index 60, 70, and 80 lands by using new yield evidence and up-to-date cost and revenue assumptions. Best combinations of initial stocking, residual basal area after thinning, an rotation age are identified for two different financial criteria: soil expectation value and internal rate of return.

  5. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  6. Utility allowed returns and market extremes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murry, D.A.; Nan, G.D.; Harrington, B.M.

    1993-01-01

    In recent years interest rates have fluctuated from exceptionally high levels in the early 1980s to their current levels, the lowest in two decades. Observers and analysts generally have assumed that allowed returns by regulatory commissions follow the movement of interest rates; indeed some analysts use a risk premium method to estimate the cost of common equity, assuming a constant and linear relationship between interest rates and the cost of common equity. That suggests we could expect a relatively stable relationship between interest rates and allowed returns, as well. However, a simple comparison of allowed returns and interest rates shows that this is not the case in recent years. The relationship between market interest rates and the returns allowed by commissions varies and is obviously a great deal more complicated. Empirically, there appears to be only a narrow range where market interest rates significantly affect the allowed returns on common stock set by state commissions, at least for electric and combination utilities. If rates are at historically low levels, allowed returns based largely on market rates will hasten subsequent rate filings, and commissions appear to look beyond the low rate levels. Conversely, it appears that regulators do not let historically high market rates determine allowed returns either. At either high or low interest levels, caution seems to be the policy

  7. Abnormal Returns and Contrarian Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Dall'Agnol

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available We test the hypothesis that strategies which are long on portfolios of looser stocks and short on portfolios of winner stocks generate abnormal returns in Brazil. This type of evidence for the US stock market was interpreted by The Bondt and Thaler (1985 as reflecting systematic evaluation mistakes caused by investors overreaction to news related to the firm performance. We found evidence of contrarian strategies profitability for horizons from 3 months to 3 years in a sample of stock returns from BOVESPA and SOMA from 1986 to 2000. The strategies are more profitable for shorter horizons. Therefore, there was no trace of the momentum effect found by Jagadeesh and Titman (1993 for the same horizons with US data. There are remaing unexplained positive returns for contrarian strategies after accounting for risk, size, and liquidity. We also found that the strategy profitability is reduced after the Real Plan, which suggests that the Brazilian stock market became more efficient after inflation stabilization.

  8. Stock Selection, Style Rotation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lucas, A.; van Dijk, R.; Prof. Kloek, T.

    2002-01-01

    Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specific characteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably over time. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation is partially

  9. Stock Market Overreaction and Trading Volume: Evidence from Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ruhani Ali; Zamri Ahmad; Shangkari V. Anusakumar

    2011-01-01

    We investigate the stock market overreaction in Bursa Malaysia from January 2000 to October 2010 using weekly data. We find that winner portfolios tend to have negative returns whereas loser portfolios have positive returns for various holding periods from 1 to 52 weeks. Loser stocks experience more persistent and stronger return reversals than winner stocks. The evidence implies that a lower level of overreaction exists for winner stocks. Overall, a loser-winner portfolio yields highly signi...

  10. The role of global economic policy uncertainty in long-run volatilities and correlations of U.S. industry-level stock returns and crude oil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Honghai; Fang, Libing; Sun, Boyang

    2018-01-01

    We investigate how Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) drives the long-run components of volatilities and correlations in crude oil and U.S. industry-level stock markets. Using the modified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity mixed data sampling (GARCH-MIDAS) and dynamic conditional correlation mixed data sampling (DCC-MIDAS) specifications, we find that GEPU is positively related to the long-run volatility of Financials and Consumer Discretionary industries; however, it is negatively related to Information Technology, Materials, Telecommunication Services and Energy. Unlike the mixed role of GEPU in the long-run volatilities, the long-run correlations are all positively related to GEPU across the industries. Additionally, the rankings of the correlations of Energy and Materials are time-invariant and classified as high, with the little exception of the latter. The Consumer Staples industry is time-invariant in the low-ranking group. Our results are helpful to policy makers and investors with long-term concerns.

  11. Stochastic GARCH dynamics describing correlations between stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prat-Ortega, G.; Savel'ev, S. E.

    2014-09-01

    The ARCH and GARCH processes have been successfully used for modelling price dynamics such as stock returns or foreign exchange rates. Analysing the long range correlations between stocks, we propose a model, based on the GARCH process, which is able to describe the main characteristics of the stock price correlations, including the mean, variance, probability density distribution and the noise spectrum.

  12. Jump Detection in the Danish Stock Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høg, Esben

    2002-01-01

    It is well known in financial economics that stock market return data are often modelled by a diffusion process with some regular drift function. Occasionally, however, sudden changes or jumps occur in the return data. Wavelet scaling methods are used to detect jumps and cusps in stock market...

  13. More than a century of Grain for Green Program is expected to restore soil carbon stock on alpine grassland revealed by field {sup 13}C pulse labeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Qi; Chen, Dongdong; Zhao, Liang [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Yang, Xue [Department of Education of Qinghai Province, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Xu, Shixiao [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Zhao, Xinquan, E-mail: xqzhao@nwipb.cas.cn [Key Laboratory of Adaptation and Evolution of Plateau Biota, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xining 810008, Qinghai (China); Chengdu Institute of Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chengdu 10041, Sichuan (China)

    2016-04-15

    Anthropogenic changes in land use/cover have altered the vegetation, soil, and carbon (C) cycling on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) over the last ~ 50 years. As a result, the Grain for Green Program (GfGP) has been widely implemented over the last 10 years to mitigate the impacts of cultivation. To quantify the effects of the GfGP on C partitioning and turnover rates at the ecosystem scale, an in situ {sup 13}C pulse labeling experiment was conducted on natural and GfGP grasslands in an agro-pastoral ecotone in the Lake Qinghai region on the QTP. We found that there were significant differences in the C stocks of all the considered pools in both the natural and GfGP grasslands, with higher CO{sub 2} uptake rates in the GfGP grassland than that in the natural grassland. Partitioning of photoassimilate (% of recovered {sup 13}C) in C pools of both grasslands was similar 25 days after labeling, except in the roots of the 0–15 and 5–15 cm soil layer. Soil organic C (SOC) sequestration rate in the GfGP grassland was 11.59 ± 1.89 g C m{sup −2} yr{sup −1} significantly greater than that in the natural grassland. The results confirmed that the GfGP is an efficient approach for grassland restoration and C sequestration. However, it will take more than a century (119.19 ± 20.26 yr) to restore the SOC stock from the current cropland baseline level to the approximate level of natural grassland. We suggest that additional measures are needed in the selection of suitable plant species for vegetation restoration, and in reasonable grazing management. - Highlights: • Grain for Green Project initiated in 1999 converts cropland to grassland/shrubland. • Impact of Grain for Green on carbon cycling on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is unknown. • Effects on carbon partitioning and turnover were accessed by {sup 13}CO{sub 2} pulse labeling. • Different mass of {sup 13}C in excess, similar {sup 13}C partitioning are shown in grasslands. • Soil organic carbon of

  14. More than a century of Grain for Green Program is expected to restore soil carbon stock on alpine grassland revealed by field "1"3C pulse labeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qi; Chen, Dongdong; Zhao, Liang; Yang, Xue; Xu, Shixiao; Zhao, Xinquan

    2016-01-01

    Anthropogenic changes in land use/cover have altered the vegetation, soil, and carbon (C) cycling on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) over the last ~ 50 years. As a result, the Grain for Green Program (GfGP) has been widely implemented over the last 10 years to mitigate the impacts of cultivation. To quantify the effects of the GfGP on C partitioning and turnover rates at the ecosystem scale, an in situ "1"3C pulse labeling experiment was conducted on natural and GfGP grasslands in an agro-pastoral ecotone in the Lake Qinghai region on the QTP. We found that there were significant differences in the C stocks of all the considered pools in both the natural and GfGP grasslands, with higher CO_2 uptake rates in the GfGP grassland than that in the natural grassland. Partitioning of photoassimilate (% of recovered "1"3C) in C pools of both grasslands was similar 25 days after labeling, except in the roots of the 0–15 and 5–15 cm soil layer. Soil organic C (SOC) sequestration rate in the GfGP grassland was 11.59 ± 1.89 g C m"−"2 yr"−"1 significantly greater than that in the natural grassland. The results confirmed that the GfGP is an efficient approach for grassland restoration and C sequestration. However, it will take more than a century (119.19 ± 20.26 yr) to restore the SOC stock from the current cropland baseline level to the approximate level of natural grassland. We suggest that additional measures are needed in the selection of suitable plant species for vegetation restoration, and in reasonable grazing management. - Highlights: • Grain for Green Project initiated in 1999 converts cropland to grassland/shrubland. • Impact of Grain for Green on carbon cycling on Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau is unknown. • Effects on carbon partitioning and turnover were accessed by "1"3CO_2 pulse labeling. • Different mass of "1"3C in excess, similar "1"3C partitioning are shown in grasslands. • Soil organic carbon of cropland will be restored to natural

  15. Compression stockings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Call your health insurance or prescription plan: Find out if they pay for compression stockings. Ask if your durable medical equipment benefit pays for compression stockings. Get a prescription from your doctor. Find a medical equipment store where they can ...

  16. Stock Status

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — These data inform the public of the most recent stock status for all stocks (FSSI and non-FSSI) in the fishery management unit contained in a fishery managment plan....

  17. THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL LEVERAGE ON RETURN AND RISK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAKAN SARITAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Financing with debt and preferred stock to increase the potential return to the residual common shareholders’ equity is referred to as financial leverage. A firm’s return on equity (ROE is a key determinant of the growth rate of its earnings. Return on equity is affected profoundly by the firm’s degree of financial leverage. Increased debt will make a positive contribution to a firm’s ROE only if the firm’s return on assets (ROA exceeds the interest rate on the debt. In spite of the fact that financial leverage increases the rate of return on common stock equity, the grater the proportion of debt in the capital structure, however, the greater the risk the common shareholders bear. Introduction of financial leverage increases the average profitability of the firm as well as its risk. In good economic years, the impact of financial leverage will most likely be positive; however, the leverage effect may be negative in relatively bad years. Traditionally, studies treated short-term debt and long-term debt as perfect substitutes for each other. There is, however, risk-sharing by long-term debtholders which makes short-term debt financing riskier to shareholders than long-term debt financing. The significant affect associated with the total debt usage is largely attributable to short-term debt financing, since the impact of short-term debt financing on the expected returns is shown to be greater than that of long-term debt financing.

  18. Do dividend shocks affect excess returns? An experimental study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Draganac Dragana

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The dividend announcement of a company is an informational event that can cause underreaction, momentum, overreaction, post-dividend announcement drift, and mean reversion. It is the uncertainty surrounding dividend announcements that leads to such behavioural phenomena. Most authors consider that underreaction occurs after dividend shocks because new information about the dividend is being slowly and gradually built into the stock price. The effect of dividend shocks is often reflected in excess returns, which can last up to one year after the shock. The experiment described in this paper tests whether statistically significant excess returns are realized after a shock dividend announcement. Participants trade with the stocks of two companies, which only differ by dividend-generating stochastic process. The dividend process of Company 2 is a Merton-style jump-diffusion process (consisting of two parts: Brownian motion and Poisson jump, while the dividend process of Company 1 contains only the Brownian motion component. Statistically significant excess returns are expected when trading with Company 2 stocks. An autoregressive model is applied in order to test this hypothesis. The conclusion is that a dividend shock is followed by statistically significant excess returns in 20 of the 22 experiments, which implies that markets are inefficient after sudden and large changes in dividends. Underreaction and discount rate effects are identified.

  19. Gold Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Robert J. Barro; Sanjay P. Misra

    2013-01-01

    From 1836 to 2011, the average real rate of price change for gold in the United States is 1.1% per year and the standard deviation is 13.1%, implying a one-standard-deviation confidence band for the mean of (0.1%, 2.1%). The covariances of gold's real rate of price change with consumption and GDP growth rates are small and statistically insignificantly different from zero. These negligible covariances suggest that gold's expected real rate of return--which includes an unobserved dividend yiel...

  20. Investment Strategies of Different Holding Periods: Evidence from Stock Markets of Hong Kong, Korea, Shanghai, and Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Massoud Moslehpour; Munkh-Ulzii Batmunkh

    2013-01-01

    Although there is abundant research focusing on estimating the level of returns on stock market, there is a lack of studies examining the comparison of stock return movements for short-term and long-term investment in the Asian stock market. The present study examines return on investment of different holding periods among selected stock markets in Asia. Based on the trading performance of key indices and market capitalization value, Korean Stock Exchange (KRE), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE),...

  1. CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL METHOD USED IN MEASURING AND ANALYZING COMPANIES LISTED IN PEFINDO25 AT INDONESIA STOCK EXCHANGE PERIOD 2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis M HUTABARAT

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The industry in Indonesia is an interesting business to capitalize. In Indonesia many companies were established since it is profitable. The capital market serves as an economic pillar in most countries. Indonesia is a rich country, rich in many ways especially in natural resources. However, the industry has its ups and downs in the stock market. It is interesting to see the performance of the companies listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange.  This study aimed to measure and analyze companies listed in Pefindo25 at Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model. The sample used is 25 companies listed at Pefindo25 index. Based on the results of the study, it can conclude that after analyzing the companies listed in the Indonesian Stock Exchange using Capital Asset Pricing Model that based on Beta analysis, the companies have the type of stocks that are aggressive and defensive. With positive and negative return. The company with aggressive beta shows that the company tend to face higher risk, as JPFA find itself with positif return 15.47% expected return. And companies with defensive type of stocks tend to have positive return such as: FISH, STTP, AISA, APLN, and others since they are not sensitive to market changes. It is recommended for further research to look on this CAPM method in analyzing the stock investment.

  2. The synchronicity between the stock and the stock index via information in market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Hai-Ling; Li, Jiang-Cheng; Guo, Wei; Mei, Dong-Cheng

    2018-02-01

    The synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index in a market system is investigated. The results show that: (i) the synchronicity between the stock and the stock-index increases with the rising degree of market information capitalized into stock prices in certain range; (ii) the synchronicity decreases for large firm-specific information; (iii) the stock return synchronicity is small compared to the big noise trading, however the variance noise facilitates the synchronization within the tailored realms. These findings may be helpful in understanding the effect of market information on synchronicity, especially for the response of firm-specific information and noise trading to synchronicity.

  3. Corporate sustainability and asset pricing models: empirical evidence for the Brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vitor Gonçalves de Azevedo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The paper investigates the impact of corporate sustainability on asset prices. For that purpose, we develop a novel corporate sustainability factor and test the extent to which this factor is priced in an augmented four-factor version of the traditional Fama & French (1993 asset pricing model. The corporate sustainability factor is based on a zero-investment portfolio which is long in stocks with high sustainability and short in stocks with low sustainability. We use data on the Brazilian stock market to estimate alternative model specifications with different combinations of four explanatory variables: the corporate sustainability premium, the market risk factor premium, the size factor premium and the book-to-market factor premium. Our results indicate that corporate sustainability is priced and helps to explain the variability in the cross-section of expected stock returns.

  4. DETERMINAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DENGAN RISIKO SISTEMATIS SEBAGAI VARIABEL MEDIASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    irman firmansyah

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Islamic capital market is the investment alternatives in accordance with Islamic law. However, the purpose of investing is to obtain a high return stock. This study aimed to analyze the fundamental factors in predicting stock return of sharia with systematic risk as a mediating variable. Fundamental factors measured by DER, EPS, ROA, PER and NPM and systematic risk measured by beta. Data taken from the Islamic capital market through the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII in a span of research in 2013 and 2014. The analysis used is multiple regression analysis and Sobel test. The results showed that DER and PER positive effect on sharia stock return, beta negative effect on sharia stock return and EPS, ROA and NPM no effect on sharia stock return. Whereas in mediating variable testing, the beta did not mediate the relationship between DER, EPS, ROA, NPM and PER to sharia stock return.

  5. Parallel Prediction of Stock Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priscilla Jenq

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Volatility is a measurement of the risk of financial products. A stock will hit new highs and lows over time and if these highs and lows fluctuate wildly, then it is considered a high volatile stock. Such a stock is considered riskier than a stock whose volatility is low. Although highly volatile stocks are riskier, the returns that they generate for investors can be quite high. Of course, with a riskier stock also comes the chance of losing money and yielding negative returns. In this project, we will use historic stock data to help us forecast volatility. Since the financial industry usually uses S&P 500 as the indicator of the market, we will use S&P 500 as a benchmark to compute the risk. We will also use artificial neural networks as a tool to predict volatilities for a specific time frame that will be set when we configure this neural network. There have been reports that neural networks with different numbers of layers and different numbers of hidden nodes may generate varying results. In fact, we may be able to find the best configuration of a neural network to compute volatilities. We will implement this system using the parallel approach. The system can be used as a tool for investors to allocating and hedging assets.

  6. How Random is the Walk: Efficiency of Indian Stock and Futures Markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu, Udayan Kumar

    Time series of prices of stock and its rates of return has been one of the major areas of study in Econophysics. The price of a stock depends on a number of factors as well as information related thereto, and how quickly and effectively the price of a stock assimilates all such information decides the efficiency of the stock market. Instead of individual stocks, people often study the behaviour of stock indices to get a feel of the market as a whole, and the outcomes of such studies for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the Nasdaq Index and the S & P 500 Index have been listed in a number of articles. In this context, it has also been argued that for a market to be considered sufficiently liquid, correlation between successive price movements and rates of return should be insignificant, because any significant correlation would lead to an arbitrage opportunity that is expected to be rapidly exploited and thus washed out. The residual correlations are those little enough not to be profitable for strategies due to imperfect market conditions. Unless transaction costs or slippages or any other impediment exists, leading to some transactional inefficiency, arbitrages would take place to bring back the markets to a stage of insignifficant correlations [1, 2].

  7. Towards and Effective Financial Management: Relevance of Dividend Discount Model in Stock Price Valuation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Mugoša

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the relevance of dividend discount model, i.e. its specific form in stock price estimation known as Gordon growth model. The expected dividends can be a measure of cash flows returned to the stockholder. In this context, the model is useful for assessment of how risk factors, such as interest rates and changing inflation rates, affect stock returns. This is especially important in case when investors are value oriented, i.e. when expected dividends are theirmain investing drivers. We compared the estimated with the actual stock price values and tested the statistical significance of price differences in 199 publicly traded European companies for the period2010-2013. Statistical difference between pairs of price series (actual and estimated was tested using Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests of median and distribution equality. The hypothesis that Gordon growth model cannot be reliable measure of stock price valuation on European equity market over period of 2010-2013 due to influence of the global financial crisis was rejected with 95% confidence. Gordon growth model has proven to be reliable measure of stock price valuation even over period of strong global financial crisis influence.

  8. INSTITUTIONAL OWNERSHIP LEVEL AND RISK-ADJUSTED RETURN

    OpenAIRE

    Isaiah, Chioma; Li, Meng (Emma)

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between the level of institutional ownership andrisk-adjusted return on stocks. We find a significant positive relationship between the level ofinstitutional ownership on a stock and its risk-adjusted return. This result holds both in the longrun and in shorter time periods. Our findings suggest that all things being equal, it is possible toobtain risk-adjusted return by going short on the stocks with low institutional ownership andgoing long on those with...

  9. STOCK PRICES, 1900-1995: THE REAL AND NOMINAL STORY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Weiher

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Prompted by the inflation-adjusted Dow Jones Industrials Average setting its first record high in almost thirty years in 1995, this paper studies the impact of inflation on nominal and real stock prices from a theoretical, historical, and empirical perspective. While stocks are an excellent longterm hedge against inflation, nominal stock prices stagnate and real stock prices fall during a period of rapid inflation. Both nominal and real stockprices then go through a catch-up phase during the subsequent disinflation period. The history for this century is consistent with this pattern. Regression analysis between real and nominal stock prices as the dependent variables and inflation as the independent variable shows statistically significant evidence that (a nominal stock returns are positively related to inflation while real stock returns are not; and (b both nominal and real stock returns are negatively related to accelerations of inflation and positively related to decelerations.

  10. Essays on Stock Issuance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kohl, Niklas

    Firms which issue new equity subsequently have lower returns than other firms, but does the strength of the issuance effect vary in the cross section of firms? The essay shows, that US firms with characteristics that makes them “hard to value” have returns which are strongly related to their past...... issuance activity, while the return of “easy to value” firms are less related to their past issuance activity. In most cases the difference between “hard to value” and “easy to value” firms are signiffcant. As proxies for “hard to value”, I use three different types of firm characteristics. First, I...... consider firms for which relatively little information is available as “hard to value”. Examples are firms covered by few analysts and small firms. Second, I consider firms with high levels of analyst disagreement on stock price target, next quarter earnings per share and share recommendation as “hard...

  11. Long Memory in the Greek Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    John T. Barkoulas; Christopher F. Baum; Nickolaos Travlos

    1996-01-01

    We test for stochastic long memory in the Greek stock market, an emerging capital market. The fractional differencing parameter is estimated using the spectral regression method. Contrary to findings for major capital markets, significant and robust evidence of positive long-term persistence is found in the Greek stock market. As compared to benchmark linear models, the estimated fractional models provide improved out-of-sample forecasting accuracy for the Greek stock returns series over long...

  12. A new Loan-Stock Financial Instrument

    OpenAIRE

    Morozovsky, Alexander; Narasimhan, Rajan; Kholodenko, Yuri

    2000-01-01

    A new financial instrument (a new kind of a loan) is introduced. The loan-stock instrument (LSI) combines fixed rate instruments (loans, etc.) with other financial instruments that have higher volatilities and returns (stocks, mutual funds, currencies, derivatives, options, etc.). This new loan depends on the value of underlying security (for example, stock) in such a way that when underlying security increases, the value of loan decreases and backwards. The procedure to create a risk free po...

  13. Mandatory IFRS Reporting and Stock Price Informativeness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beuselinck, C.A.C.; Joos, P.P.M.; Khurana, I.K.; van der Meulen, S.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we examine whether mandatory adoption of IFRS influences the flow of firm-specific information and contributes to stock price informativeness as measured by stock return synchronicity. Using a constant sample of 1,904 mandatory IFRS adopters in 14 EU countries for the period

  14. Valuation of common and preferred stocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolić Ljubica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Buying stocks is a modern way of investing. The investors may place the available capital on the domestic and foreign stock market, they may buy more stocks of a single issuer or distribute money to purchase stocks of various public (stock-exchange companies, and they may form a portfolio of various securities. The investors' decisions on these options are based on their estimate on returns and risks underlying individual security instruments (securities. The two basic approaches to valuation of common stocks are: the Present Value Approach (method of valuating the capitalization of income and the P/E Ratio Approach (the method of valuating the multiple of per-share earnings. Instead of viewing these methods as competing alternatives, they should better be viewed as mutually complementary methods. Both methods are equally useful and their concurrent use may provide better grounds for the analysts' valuation of stocks.

  15. Analisa Korelasi Return Indeks – Indeks Saham terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan pada Bursa Efek Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mulyono Mulyono

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Stock market generally has the stock price index that measures the performance of stock trading, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has a stock price index that is widely known as Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG. During its development, the Indonesia Stock Exchange has many alternative indexes that measure the performance of stock trading. Research that is to be conducted on the correlation between return of the stock index listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange and return of Jakarta Composite Index. Return stock index listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange, namely, LQ45 Index, Jakarta Islamic Index (JII, KOMPAS100 Index, BISNIS-27 Index, PEFINDO25 Index and SRI-KEHATI Index, has a close relationship with the return Jakarta Composite,Index which is a reflection of the movement of all existing stock in the market. Return of stocks index that have the highest coefficient correlation is KOMPAS100 In dex, which have return index coefficient correlation is 0.949, thus KOMPAS100 Index that consisting of 100 stocks, based on the results of the study can be used as an alternative investment to get a return that is at least equal or close to the yield given by Jakarta Composite Index(IHSG that consists of 445 stocks

  16. The overnight effect on the Taiwan stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Kuo-Ting; Lih, Jiann-Shing; Ko, Jing-Yuan

    2012-12-01

    This study examines statistical regularities among three components of stocks and indices: daytime (trading hour) return, overnight (off-hour session) return, and total (close-to-close) return. Owing to the fact that the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) has the longest non-trading periods among major markets, the TWSE is selected to explore the correlation among the three components and compare it with major markets such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation (NASDAQ). Analysis results indicate a negative cross correlation between the sign of daytime return and the sign of overnight return; possibly explaining why most stocks feature a negative cross correlation between daytime return and overnight return [F. Wang, S.-J. Shieh, S. Havlin, H.E. Stanley, Statistical analysis of the overnight and daytime return, Phys. Rev. E 79 (2009) 056109]. Additionally, the cross correlation between the magnitude of returns is analyzed. According to those results, a larger magnitude of overnight return implies a higher probability that the sign of the following daytime return is the opposite of the sign of overnight return. Namely, the predictability of daytime return might be improved when a stock undergoes a large magnitude of overnight return. Furthermore, the cross correlations of 29 indices of worldwide markets are discussed.

  17. Do Earthquakes Shake Stock Markets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Susana; Karali, Berna

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines how major earthquakes affected the returns and volatility of aggregate stock market indices in thirty-five financial markets over the last twenty years. Results show that global financial markets are resilient to shocks caused by earthquakes even if these are domestic. Our analysis reveals that, in a few instances, some macroeconomic variables and earthquake characteristics (gross domestic product per capita, trade openness, bilateral trade flows, earthquake magnitude, a tsunami indicator, distance to the epicenter, and number of fatalities) mediate the impact of earthquakes on stock market returns, resulting in a zero net effect. However, the influence of these variables is market-specific, indicating no systematic pattern across global capital markets. Results also demonstrate that stock market volatility is unaffected by earthquakes, except for Japan.

  18. Effects of rate-of-return regulation on the intensity of use and durability of capital

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Epple, D [Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA; Zelenitz, A

    1979-10-01

    It has been suggested that rate-of-return regulation reduces the incentives for technically efficient management, because regulation eliminates much of the gain firms might normally expect to realize from such efficiency. Rather than relying upon notions of managerial slack or X-inefficiency, this paper demonstrates that under-utilization of existing capital and a suboptimal choice of the capital stock's durability can be explained as rational profit-maximizing responses to the regulatory incentives. 11 references.

  19. O fenômeno de retornos anormais decorrentes da inclusão e exclusão das ações na Carteira Teórica do Índice Bovespa The phenomenon of extraordinary returns resulting from stock inclusion in and exclusion from the theoretical market portfolio of the Bovespa index

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Nicolás Albuja Salazar

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Este trabalho procura medir os retornos extraordinários das ações que experimentam a ocorrência de inclusão e exclusão da Carteira Teórica do Índice Bovespa, por meio do uso da metodologia de Event Study e do Modelo de Precificação de Ativos de Capital - CAPM - como benchmark. Conclui-se que as ações da Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo que são afetadas pela recomposição da Carteira apresentaram evidências de mudança em seus preços, durante a primeira metade da década de 1990.This research aims to measure extraordinary returns of stocks due to their inclusion in and exclusion from the Theoretical Market Portfolio of the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index, using the "Event Study" methodology and the Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM - as a benchmark. It is concluded that the stocks on the São Paulo Stock Exchange which were affected by the recomposition of the Theoretical Portfolio gave evidence of price changes during the firsthalf of the 1990's.

  20. Responsabilidade social e retornos das ações: uma análise de empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA = Social responsibility and stock returns: an analysis of companies listed on BM&FBOVESPA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Lopes de Oliveira Martins

    2015-08-01

    crucial element for success in the market. Corporate Social Responsibility refers to the adoption of socially responsible practices by the authorities, aimed at providing social and economic development of the environments in which they operate. At the same time, these actions meet the organizational interests that may lead to improved corporate image, market share gains, increase in profitability and increase the possibilities of continuity. In order to verify a possible relationship between corporate social responsibility practices and the economic results reported by the companies, this research sought to identify whether disclosure of the composition of the portfolio of the Corporate Sustainability Index (ISE of BM&FBOVESPA impacts on variations in stock returns of the companies that are in the index. In this sense, the share of assets in the portfolio was considered as a proxy for sustainability initiatives, and the event study method was used to analyze the effect of the inclusion or exclusion of firms in the portfolio. ISE portfolios were analyzed for the years 2011 to 2013 and the results showed positive abnormal returns of the companies included after the release of the index and negative abnormal returns of the firms that were excluded from the index. It was found also that the market behavior returns to normality after the absortion of avaliable information, which supports the semi-strong efficiency hypothesis of the Brazilian capital market.

  1. Politics and the Stock Market ; Evidence from Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Jörg Döpke; Christian Pierdzioch

    2004-01-01

    We analyze the interaction of stock market movements and politics in Germany. In contrast to the empirical evidence available for the U.S., we do not find that German stock market returns tend to be higher during liberal than during conservative governments. Also in contrast to results for the U.S., we find no evidence for an election cycle in German stock market returns. However, estimated popularity functions and VARs suggest that stock market returns have had an impact on the popularity of...

  2. DEA investment strategy in the Brazilian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Newton da Costa, Jr.; Marcus Lima; Edgar Lanzer; Ana Lopes

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-period investment strategy using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) in the Brazilian stock market. Results show that the returns based on the DEA strategy were superior to the returns of a Brazilian stock index in most of the 22 quarters analyzed, presenting a significant Jensen's alpha.

  3. An investigation on the relationship between arbitrage and macro-economic indicators: A case study of Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samira Fazli

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of macro-economic factors on the performance of stocks listed on Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The proposed study considers the effects of money supply, inflation rate, oil price, unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates as well as unanticipated changes in industrial production on stock price. Using seasonal information of stock price over the period 1997-2007 as well as regression analysis, the study has determined that risk premium of unforeseen changes in the course structure of interest rates, money supply, inflation rate and unanticipated changes in industrial production are meaningful when the level of significance is five percent. In other words, Arbitrage pricing theory model describing the expected return per share is reasonable and macro-level variables explain systematic risk on TSE.

  4. Extreme value modelling of Ghana stock exchange index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Asare, Kwabena; Mettle, Felix Okoe

    2015-01-01

    Modelling of extreme events has always been of interest in fields such as hydrology and meteorology. However, after the recent global financial crises, appropriate models for modelling of such rare events leading to these crises have become quite essential in the finance and risk management fields. This paper models the extreme values of the Ghana stock exchange all-shares index (2000-2010) by applying the extreme value theory (EVT) to fit a model to the tails of the daily stock returns data. A conditional approach of the EVT was preferred and hence an ARMA-GARCH model was fitted to the data to correct for the effects of autocorrelation and conditional heteroscedastic terms present in the returns series, before the EVT method was applied. The Peak Over Threshold approach of the EVT, which fits a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model to excesses above a certain selected threshold, was employed. Maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters were obtained and the model's goodness of fit was assessed graphically using Q-Q, P-P and density plots. The findings indicate that the GPD provides an adequate fit to the data of excesses. The size of the extreme daily Ghanaian stock market movements were then computed using the value at risk and expected shortfall risk measures at some high quantiles, based on the fitted GPD model.

  5. A spring-block analogy for the dynamics of stock indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Néda, Zoltán

    2015-06-01

    A spring-block chain placed on a running conveyor belt is considered for modeling stylized facts observed in the dynamics of stock indexes. Individual stocks are modeled by the blocks, while the stock-stock correlations are introduced via simple elastic forces acting in the springs. The dragging effect of the moving belt corresponds to the expected economic growth. The spring-block system produces collective behavior and avalanche like phenomena, similar to the ones observed in stock markets. An artificial index is defined for the spring-block chain, and its dynamics is compared with the one measured for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For certain parameter regions the model reproduces qualitatively well the dynamics of the logarithmic index, the logarithmic returns, the distribution of the logarithmic returns, the avalanche-size distribution and the distribution of the investment horizons. A noticeable success of the model is that it is able to account for the gain-loss asymmetry observed in the inverse statistics. Our approach has mainly a pedagogical value, bridging between a complex socio-economic phenomena and a basic (mechanical) model in physics.

  6. Investors' performance and trading behavior on the Norwegian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Che, Limei

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation examines investors’ performance and trading behavior on the Norwegian stock market, using a unique and extensive data set of monthly holdings of all the investors. The first paper studies how Norwegian individual investors, financial institutional investors and foreign investors affect stock return volatility and finds surprising and interesting results: domestic individual investors and financial institutional investors dampen stock return volatility, and foreign investors ...

  7. Asymmetry Effects of shocks in Chinese Stock Markets Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hou, Ai Jun

    2013-01-01

    The unique characteristics of the Chinese stock markets make it difficult to assume a particular distribution for innovations in returns and the specification form of the volatility process when modelling return volatility with the parametric GARCH family models. This paper therefore applies...... a generalized additive nonparametric smoothing technique to examine the volatility of the Chinese stock markets. The empirical results indicate that an asymmetric effect of negative news exists in the Chinese stock markets. Furthermore, compared with other parametric models, the generalized additive...

  8. Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

    2016-06-01

    Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

  9. Analisis Karakteristik Perusahaan Dan Ekonomi Makro Pada Return Saham Syariah Dan Non Syariah

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ardi Hamzah

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this paper are to determine, to examine, and to test whether firm characteristic and macro economics are the important discriminators for return of syariah and non syariah stock; to determine whether there are any differences in return of some syariah and non syariah stock; to determine and to test whether there is a relationship between return and firm characteristic and macro economis in some syariah and non syariah stock. The total sample is 300 stock that were taken each from 150 for syariah stock and 150 for non syariah stock for period 2005 – 2009. The study also showed that there is a difference in return between syariah and non syariah stock. Finally,with regression analysis indicated that partially price book value, price earnings ratio, and kurs rupiah on dollar significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while for return of non syariah stock only kurs rupiah on dollar that significantly effect on return of non syariah stock. For testing with simultant regression indicate firm characteristic and macro economics significantly effect on return of syariah stock, while at return of non syariah stock not significantly effect.

  10. Stock Performance of Socially Responsible Companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huang Tzu-Man

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Every year Corporate Responsibility Magazine selects and ranks 100 companies on the basis of their corporate social responsibility. This study investigates the stock performance of socially responsible companies in the U.S. The monthly stock returns for these companies are analyzed and compared with the market performance, with the S&P 500 index designated as a proxy for the market. The empirical evidence suggests that these 100 companies outperform the market in their monthly stock returns. We also narrow down the number of companies selected to the top 75, 50, 25, and 10 firms. As we narrow down the companies selected, the difference between their returns and the market returns also narrows. In other words, a portfolio that includes all top 100 companies provides the best stock performance. We extend the analysis to long-term annual stock performance. We find that these socially responsible companies′ annual returns are higher than the market returns for up to seven years after they are listed. We also conduct the same analysis on the top 75, 50, 25, and 10 firms, respectively. Similarly, the larger the number of these top 100 companies, the greater the tendency to generate higher annual returns. We suspect that because the difference between the socially responsible companies′ average returns and the market returns is not dramatic, with a bigger population and thus a larger sample size, the difference becomes more significant. However, in practice, transaction costs must be considered. This study is limited in that it does not consider transaction costs. Nevertheless, we hope to shed some light on the issue of socially responsible companies′ stock performance to encourage companies to start thinking about the importance of corporate social responsibility.

  11. Market Performance and Accounting Information as the Reference of Stocks Portfolio Formation in Indonesia Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Pasaribu, Rowland Bismark Fernando

    2009-01-01

    This study aimed to a stock portfolio formed with composite of companies market (PER, PBV, ROE, EPS, PSR, and B/M, VaR) and accounting performance (ROE, and EPS) also their market capitalization in Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2003-2006. Some clarification need to achieved, such as: real difference among variabel refer to their market capitalization and influence of predictor to stock return. Hereinafter, the performance of selected portfolio were evaluated. The evaluation result conclude ...

  12. Statistical analysis of bankrupting and non-bankrupting stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qian; Wang, Fengzhong; Wei, Jianrong; Liang, Yuan; Huang, Jiping; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2012-04-01

    The recent financial crisis has caused extensive world-wide economic damage, affecting in particular those who invested in companies that eventually filed for bankruptcy. A better understanding of stocks that become bankrupt would be helpful in reducing risk in future investments. Economists have conducted extensive research on this topic, and here we ask whether statistical physics concepts and approaches may offer insights into pre-bankruptcy stock behavior. To this end, we study all 20092 stocks listed in US stock markets for the 20-year period 1989-2008, including 4223 (21 percent) that became bankrupt during that period. We find that, surprisingly, the distributions of the daily returns of those stocks that become bankrupt differ significantly from those that do not. Moreover, these differences are consistent for the entire period studied. We further study the relation between the distribution of returns and the length of time until bankruptcy, and observe that larger differences of the distribution of returns correlate with shorter time periods preceding bankruptcy. This behavior suggests that sharper fluctuations in the stock price occur when the stock is closer to bankruptcy. We also analyze the cross-correlations between the return and the trading volume, and find that stocks approaching bankruptcy tend to have larger return-volume cross-correlations than stocks that are not. Furthermore, the difference increases as bankruptcy approaches. We conclude that before a firm becomes bankrupt its stock exhibits unusual behavior that is statistically quantifiable.

  13. Random Walks in Stock Exchange Prices and the Vienna Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Huber, Peter

    1995-01-01

    This paper uses the multiple variance ratio test procedure developed by Chow and Denning (1993) to test for a random walk of stock returns on the Austrian Stock Exchange. I find that with daily data the test rejects the random walk hypothesis at all conventional significance levels for each and every title and for both indeces tested. Individual shares, however, do seem to follow a random walk when weekly returns are considered, while the hypothesis is rejected for both indices. Dieser Art...

  14. Facebook drives behavior of passive households in stock markets

    OpenAIRE

    Siikanen, Milla; Baltakys, Kęstutis; Kanniainen, Juho; Vatrapu, Ravi; Mukkamala, Raghava; Hussain, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Recent studies using data on social media and stock markets have mainly focused on predicting stock returns. Instead of predicting stock price movements, we examine the relation between Facebook data and investors' decision making in stock markets with a unique data on investors' transactions on Nokia. We find that the decisions to buy versus sell are associated with Facebook data especially for passive households and also for nonprofit organizations. At the same time, it seems that more soph...

  15. SENSITIVITY OF THE INVESTOR'S TOWARDS STOCK MARKET INVESTMENT

    OpenAIRE

    M. Jaya

    2017-01-01

    Investment in stock market has become a common phenomenon for all the individuals. The growth of stock market contributes to national economic growth only when this growth translates into increased mobilization of resources, return from investment, and minimizing the risk attached to stock market investment. This survey has been conducted to find out the stock market investment pattern and risk diversification of retail equity investors. A well structured questionnaire which is pilot teste...

  16. TRADING RULES ON A SMALL STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefán B. Gunnlaugsson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available In this article, the results of an extensive study of the weak form efficiency of the Iceland stock market are presented. This study almost covers the market’s entire history, with the research starting at the beginning of 1993 and ending in July 2017. Four trading rules based on 70-day moving averages were constructed and compared with the passive investment strategy of buying the market index. All of these trading rules provided significantly better returns than the passive strategy, even when considering trading costs. This result indicates that the Icelandic stock market did not show weak form efficiency, and past returns predicted future returns during the period examined.

  17. The Effect of Exit Strategy on Optimal Portfolio Selection with Birandom Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Cao, Guohua; Shan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    The aims of this paper are to use a birandom variable to denote the stock return selected by some recurring technical patterns and to study the effect of exit strategy on optimal portfolio selection with birandom returns. Firstly, we propose a new method to estimate the stock return and use birandom distribution to denote the final stock return which can reflect the features of technical patterns and investors' heterogeneity simultaneously; secondly, we build a birandom safety-first model and...

  18. An Evaluation of CAPM’s validity in the Romanian Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camelia Colescu

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study tries to test the validity of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM in the Bucharest Stock Exchange Market from Romania. The tested period for this study covers 3 years from 2011 to 2013. The sample is composed by 20 companies listed at the Bucharest Stock Exchange. The relationship between risk and expected return is being examined. It was found that the security market line’s slope is downwards sloping and negative and so it was concluded that CAPM does not hold. As a general conclusion there is a weak practical implication of the Capital Asset Pricing Model in Romanian stock market. Thus, other important variables should be considered to find an effective and appropriate pricing mechanism.

  19. Optimization Stock Portfolio With Mean-Variance and Linear Programming: Case In Indonesia Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yen Sun

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available It is observed that the number of Indonesia’s domestic investor who involved in the stock exchange is very less compare to its total number of population (only about 0.1%. As a result, Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX is highly affected by foreign investor that can threat the economy. Domestic investor tends to invest in risk-free asset such as deposit in the bank since they are not familiar yet with the stock market and anxious about the risk (risk-averse type of investor. Therefore, it is important to educate domestic investor to involve in the stock exchange. Investing in portfolio of stock is one of the best choices for risk-averse investor (such as Indonesia domestic investor since it offers lower risk for a given level of return. This paper studies the optimization of Indonesian stock portfolio. The data is the historical return of 10 stocks of LQ 45 for 5 time series (January 2004 – December 2008. It will be focus on selecting stocks into a portfolio, setting 10 of stock portfolios using mean variance method combining with the linear programming (solver. Furthermore, based on Efficient Frontier concept and Sharpe measurement, there will be one stock portfolio picked as an optimum Portfolio (Namely Portfolio G. Then, Performance of portfolio G will be evaluated by using Sharpe, Treynor and Jensen Measurement to show whether the return of Portfolio G exceeds the market return. This paper also illustrates how the stock composition of the Optimum Portfolio (G succeeds to predict the portfolio return in the future (5th January – 3rd April 2009. The result of the study observed that optimization portfolio using Mean-Variance (consistent with Markowitz theory combine with linear programming can be applied into Indonesia stock’s portfolio. All the measurements (Sharpe, Jensen, and Treynor show that the portfolio G is a superior portfolio. It is also been found that the composition (weights stocks of optimum portfolio (G can be used to

  20. How do the stock prices of new energy and fossil fuel companies correlate? Evidence from China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wen, Xiaoqian; Guo, Yanfeng; Wei, Yu; Huang, Dengshi

    2014-01-01

    This study documents the return and volatility spillover effect between the stock prices of Chinese new energy and fossil fuel companies using the asymmetric BEKK model. Based on daily samples taken from August 30, 2006 to September 11, 2012, the dynamics of new energy/fossil fuel stock spillover are found to be significant and asymmetric. Compared with positive news, negative news about new energy and fossil fuel stock returns leads to larger return changes in their counter assets. News about both new energy and fossil fuel stock returns spills over into variances of their counter assets, and the volatility spillovers depend complexly on the respective signs of the return shocks of each asset. The empirical results demonstrate that new energy and fossil fuel stocks are generally viewed as competing assets, that positive news about new energy stocks could affect the attractiveness of fossil fuel stocks and that new energy stock investment is more speculative and riskier than fossil fuel stock investment. These results have potential implications for asset allocation, financial risk management and energy policymaking. - Highlights: • The dynamics of Chinese new energy/fossil fuel stock spillover are significant and asymmetric. • New energy and fossil fuel stocks are generally viewed as competing assets. • Positive news about new energy stocks affects the attractiveness of fossil fuel stocks. • New energy stock investment is more speculative and riskier than fossil fuel stock investment

  1. Can Big Data Help Predict Financial Market Dynamics?: Evidence from the Korean Stock Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Jin Pyo

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency prevail during the sample period. Meanwhile, the search frequency has a negative association with the one-week- ahead stock return but not vice versa. In addition to identifying dynamic correlations, the paper also aims to serve as a test bed in which the existence of profitable trading strategies based on big data is explored. Specifically, the strategy interpreting the heightened investor attention as a negative signal for future returns appears to have been superior to the benchmark strategy in terms of the expected utility over wealth. This paper also demonstrates that the big data-based option trading strategy might be able to beat the market under certain conditions. These results highlight the possibility of big data as a potential source-which has been left largely untapped-for establishing profitable trading strategies as well as developing insights on stock market dynamics.

  2. Hidden temporal order unveiled in stock market volatility variance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Shapira

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available When analyzed by standard statistical methods, the time series of the daily return of financial indices appear to behave as Markov random series with no apparent temporal order or memory. This empirical result seems to be counter intuitive since investor are influenced by both short and long term past market behaviors. Consequently much effort has been devoted to unveil hidden temporal order in the market dynamics. Here we show that temporal order is hidden in the series of the variance of the stocks volatility. First we show that the correlation between the variances of the daily returns and means of segments of these time series is very large and thus cannot be the output of random series, unless it has some temporal order in it. Next we show that while the temporal order does not show in the series of the daily return, rather in the variation of the corresponding volatility series. More specifically, we found that the behavior of the shuffled time series is equivalent to that of a random time series, while that of the original time series have large deviations from the expected random behavior, which is the result of temporal structure. We found the same generic behavior in 10 different stock markets from 7 different countries. We also present analysis of specially constructed sequences in order to better understand the origin of the observed temporal order in the market sequences. Each sequence was constructed from segments with equal number of elements taken from algebraic distributions of three different slopes.

  3. HUBUNGAN RETURN SAHAM DAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nyoman Triaryati

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of inflation to the stock return research had been held since three decades ago based on GeneralizeFisher’s Hypotheses, but ‘how inflation influenced stock return’ had become a debate until today. In Indonesiamost of the related research used inflation as one of the variables that influenced stock return despite of others inshort period of time. This research investigated the effect of inflation to the stock return in Indonesia within fifteenyears, which was divided into 3 (three periods of time reflecting different economic growth for each of it. Thepurpose of this allotment was to see the consistency how inflation influenced the stock market. Using a secondarydata from monthly inflation and IHSG period 1998 until 2012, included three hundred and sixty observation,simple regression model analyses was applied. This research acknowledged that inflation negatively influencedstock return in a long time period, but it did not exist in the short time period, except when the level of inflationreached 10%. In conclusion, inflation influence on the stock return was not ascertained by how long the investigationwas held but if there was any inflation rate reaching 10% within the period of investigation.

  4. Predictability of Returns and Cash Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Ralph S.J. Koijen; Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

    2010-01-01

    We review the literature on return and cash-flow growth predictability from the perspective of the present-value identity. We focus predominantly on recent work. Our emphasis is on U.S. aggregate stock return predictability, but we also discuss evidence from other asset classes and countries.

  5. Performance of technical trading rules: evidence from Southeast Asian stock markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tharavanij, Piyapas; Siraprapasiri, Vasan; Rajchamaha, Kittichai

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the profitability of technical trading rules in the five Southeast Asian stock markets. The data cover a period of 14 years from January 2000 to December 2013. The instruments investigated are five Southeast Asian stock market indices: SET index (Thailand), FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLC index (Malaysia), FTSE Straits Times index (Singapore), JSX Composite index (Indonesia), and PSE composite index (the Philippines). Trading strategies investigated include Relative Strength Index, Stochastic oscillator, Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, Directional Movement Indicator and On Balance Volume. Performances are compared to a simple Buy-and-Hold. Statistical tests are also performed. Our empirical results show a strong performance of technical trading rules in an emerging stock market of Thailand but not in a more mature stock market of Singapore. The technical trading rules also generate statistical significant returns in the Malaysian, Indonesian and the Philippine markets. However, after taking transaction costs into account, most technical trading rules do not generate net returns. This fact suggests different levels of market efficiency among Southeast Asian stock markets. This paper finds three new insights. Firstly, technical indicators does not help much in terms of market timing. Basically, traders cannot expect to buy at a relative low price and sell at a relative high price by just using technical trading rules. Secondly, technical trading rules can be beneficial to individual investors as they help them to counter the behavioral bias called disposition effects which is the tendency to sell winning stocks too soon and holding on to losing stocks too long. Thirdly, even profitable strategies could not reliably predict subsequent market directions. They make money from having a higher average profit from profitable trades than an average loss from unprofitable ones.

  6. Asymmetric conditional volatility in international stock markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nuno B.; Menezes, Rui; Mendes, Diana A.

    2007-08-01

    Recent studies show that a negative shock in stock prices will generate more volatility than a positive shock of similar magnitude. The aim of this paper is to appraise the hypothesis under which the conditional mean and the conditional variance of stock returns are asymmetric functions of past information. We compare the results for the Portuguese Stock Market Index PSI 20 with six other Stock Market Indices, namely the SP 500, FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, ASE 20, and IBEX 35. In order to assess asymmetric volatility we use autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity specifications known as TARCH and EGARCH. We also test for asymmetry after controlling for the effect of macroeconomic factors on stock market returns using TAR and M-TAR specifications within a VAR framework. Our results show that the conditional variance is an asymmetric function of past innovations raising proportionately more during market declines, a phenomenon known as the leverage effect. However, when we control for the effect of changes in macroeconomic variables, we find no significant evidence of asymmetric behaviour of the stock market returns. There are some signs that the Portuguese Stock Market tends to show somewhat less market efficiency than other markets since the effect of the shocks appear to take a longer time to dissipate.

  7. Outlook '98 - Stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vankka, D.

    1998-01-01

    In view of the recent drop of some 20 per cent in energy stock prices, and the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar, forecasting oilpatch financing in 1998 is a risky undertaking. Based on a variety of relevant factors, it is expected that there will be a slowdown in oil and gas financing deals in the short term. On the other hand, longer term outlook is bullish, based on the huge capital requirements over the next few years for conventional projects, heavy oil, oilsands and pipelines projects. Corporate mergers and acquisitions will continue at about the same rate as in 1997, as companies attempt to achieve ''economies of scale'' and growth in the most economically sensible manner. Adding production and reserves through corporate transactions at the current lower stock prices will be a powerful incentive. Creative deal structuring will become more prevalent. Corporate reorganizations into separate companies in search of value maximization will increase

  8. Value and growth stocks in Brazil: risks and returns for one - and two-dimensional portfolios under different economic conditions Ações de valor e de crescimento no Brasil: riscos e retornos de carteiras uni e bidimensionais em diferentes estados da economia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro da Rocha Santos

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available For empirical purposes, value stocks are usually defined as those traded at low price-to-earnings ratios (stock prices divided by earnings per share, low price-to-book ratios (stock prices divided by book value per share or high dividend yields (dividends per share divided by stock prices. Growth stocks, on the other hand, are traded at high price-to-earnings ratios, high price-to-book ratios or low dividend yields. Academic research so far produced, international and Brazilian alike, shows that value stocks outperform growth stocks, challenging the Efficient Market Hypothesis, which states that the market prices of traded stocks are the best estimate of their intrinsic values. Most studies use a single ratio to sort stocks on percentiles; risks (generally defined as beta or standard deviations and returns are then calculated for the resulting value and growth portfolios. In the present paper, we aim to further contribute to the growing literature on the field by applying a method not previously tested on the Brazilian market. We build portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings and price-to-book ratios alone and by a combination of both in order to assess value and growth stocks' risks and returns on the Brazilian stock market between 1989 and 2009. Furthermore, our risk analysis may be regarded as the paper's main contribution, since its approach departs from conventional risk concepts, as we not only test for beta: portfolios' returns are measured under different economic conditions. Results support a pervasive value premium in the Brazilian stock market. Risk analysis shows that this premium holds under every economic condition analyzed, suggesting that value stocks are indeed less risky. Beta proved not to be a satisfactory risk measure. Portfolios sorted by the price-to-earnings ratio yielded the best results.Para fins de pesquisas empíricas, ações de valor são geralmente definidas como aquelas negociadas a baixos índices pre

  9. Looking Back on the Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2007-01-01

    @@ Looking back at the ups and downs of China's stock market in 2007,it is clear that it has developed far beyond people's expectation. While the stock index constantly reaches new highs and the size of the market becomes larger and larger, the Chinese financial market has also reintegrated. A multi-level revolution occurred in 2007, involving changes in stock structure, the variety of core composition, chip cost of the capital market, investor makeup, as well as trade rules and operational methods.

  10. Stock portfolio selection using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gour Sundar Mitra Thakur

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Markowitz’s return–risk model for stock portfolio selection is based on the historical return data of assets. In addition to the effect of historical return, there are many other critical factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market. We use the fuzzy Delphi method to identify the critical factors initially. Factors having lower correlation coefficients are finally considered for further consideration. The critical factors and historical data are used to apply Dempster–Shafer evidence theory to rank the stocks. Then, a portfolio selection model that prefers stocks with higher rank is proposed. Illustration is done using stocks under Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE. Simulation is done by Ant Colony Optimization. The performance of the outcome is found satisfactory when compared with recent performance of the assets. Keywords: Stock portfolio selection, Ranking, Dempster–Shafer evidence theory, Ant Colony Optimization, Fuzzy Delphi method

  11. Multifractal in Volatility of Family Business Stocks Listed on Casablanca STOCK Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    In this paper, we check for existence of multifractal in volatility of Moroccan family business stock returns and in volatility of Casablanca market index returns based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) technique. Empirical results show strong evidence of multifractal characteristics in volatility series of both family business stocks and market index. In addition, it is found that small variations in volatility of family business stocks are persistent, whilst small variations in volatility of market index are anti-persistent. However, large variations in family business volatility and market index volatility are both anti-persistent. Furthermore, multifractal spectral analysis based results show strong evidence that volatility in Moroccan family business companies exhibits more multifractality than volatility in the main stock market. These results may provide insightful information for risk managers concerned with family business stocks.

  12. CSR and Company's Stock Price. A Comparative Evidence from Bucharest Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adina Dornean

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims at analysing the relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR and stock price for the companies listed on Bucharest Stock Exchange (BSE in 2015, comparing with the results obtained for 2014. This study investigates the differences in the market stock price (and other market variables, such as dividends and stock return of companies that show CSR compared with those that do not. For this purpose we will use three statistical techniques: discriminant analysis, probit analysis model and logistic regression. There is no significant difference between the prediction ability of the models, in the context in which probit model and logistic regression have and average correct classification of 70.29%, while discriminant analysis records 71.62%. Our analysis highlighted that stock return has a significant impact on CSR activities of a company. Moreover, all discriminants have a positive impact on CSR.

  13. Black swans in the brazilian stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Jacob Lovisolo

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes extreme values in the daily returns of 45 Brazilian stocks between 2 January 1995 and 18 March 2009. The incidence of observations outside the range of three standard deviationsfrom the mean is at least five times greater than under the normal distribution. The occurrence of extreme values in the upper tail is 1.13 times higher than in the lower. The average of the extreme positive returns is higher than that of extreme negative returns. Half percent of the days determined the outcome of the investment. Extreme values are at least ± 7%. Investors should assess whether they will keep their holdings when returns of such magnitude occur. The characteristics of empirical distributions of stock returns favor the passive investor and the use of weight constraints in portfolio allocation models.

  14. Bias correction in the realized stochastic volatility model for daily volatility on the Tokyo Stock Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takaishi, Tetsuya

    2018-06-01

    The realized stochastic volatility model has been introduced to estimate more accurate volatility by using both daily returns and realized volatility. The main advantage of the model is that no special bias-correction factor for the realized volatility is required a priori. Instead, the model introduces a bias-correction parameter responsible for the bias hidden in realized volatility. We empirically investigate the bias-correction parameter for realized volatilities calculated at various sampling frequencies for six stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, and then show that the dynamic behavior of the bias-correction parameter as a function of sampling frequency is qualitatively similar to that of the Hansen-Lunde bias-correction factor although their values are substantially different. Under the stochastic diffusion assumption of the return dynamics, we investigate the accuracy of estimated volatilities by examining the standardized returns. We find that while the moments of the standardized returns from low-frequency realized volatilities are consistent with the expectation from the Gaussian variables, the deviation from the expectation becomes considerably large at high frequencies. This indicates that the realized stochastic volatility model itself cannot completely remove bias at high frequencies.

  15. The Interplay Between the Thai and Several Other International Stock Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Valadkhani, Abbas; Chancharat, Surachai; Harvie, Charles

    2006-01-01

    The paper analyses the effect of various international stock market price indices and some relevant macroeconomic variables on the Thai stock market price index, using a GARCH-M model and monthly data from January 1988 to December 2004. It is found, inter alia, that (a) changes in stock market returns in Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia in the pre-1997 Asian crisis, and changes in Singapore, the Philippines and Korea in the post-1997 era instantaneously influenced returns in the Thai stock m...

  16. DEA-BASED INVESTMENT STRATEGY AND ITS APPLICATION IN THE CROATIAN STOCK MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Margareta Gardijan; Vedran Kojić

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the DEA-based investment strategy for constructing of a stock portfolio in the Croatian stock market. The relative efficiency of the DMUs, which are in this case the selected stocks from Zagreb Stock Exchange, is obtained from the output oriented CCR and BCC models. The set of inputs consists of risk measures, namely return variance, Value at Risk (VaR) and beta coefficient $(\\beta)$, while monthly return represents an output. Following the „efficiency scores“, obtained f...

  17. THE EFFICIENT MARKET HYPOTHESIS REVISITED: EVIDENCE FROM THE FIVE SMALL OPEN ASEAN STOCK MARKETS

    OpenAIRE

    QAISER MUNIR; KOK SOOK CHING; FUMITAKA FUROUKA; KASIM MANSUR

    2012-01-01

    The efficient market hypothesis (EMH), which suggests that returns of a stock market are unpredictable from historical price changes, is satisfied when stock prices are characterized by a random walk (unit root) process. A finding of unit root implies that stock returns cannot be predicted. This paper investigates the stock prices behavior of five ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries i.e., Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand, for the period from 1990:1...

  18. The Return to Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    We estimate the average rate of return on investments financed by aid and by domestic resource mobilisation, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop a correlated random coefficients model to estimate the average returns. Across...... different estimators and two different data sources for GDP and investment our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per cent. This is in accord with micro estimates of the economic rate of return on aid projects and with aggregate estimates of the rate...

  19. Pengaruh Right Issue Terhadap Volume Perdagangan Saham Dan Return Saham Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2010-2013

    OpenAIRE

    Kristy, Herico

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to find partially the empirical evidence about the difference of stock trading volume and stock return of listed companies before and after right issue in Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study is conducted by using even study. Data used in this study is stock trading volume and stock return data in five days before and after right issue that obtained from Indonesia Stock Exchange publication, reference books, internet, and scie...

  20. THE INFLUENCE OF CORPORATE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE ON SHARE RETURN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghulam Nurul Huda

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to examine the effect of financial performances of Economic Value Added (EVA, Market Value Added (MVA as well as financial ratios (Fixed Asset Turnover, Return on Investment, Debt to Equity Ratio, Price to Book Value, Total Asset Turnover on Stock Return. This study used the data of six representative palm oil companies which were listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The analysis models that were used included three multiple regression equations for EVA, MVA and Stock Return. The results indicate that DER significantly influences EVA and PBV, and TATO significantly influences MVA. Return Shares are significantly only affected by EVA. The company's fundamentals, especially EVA, PBV, TATO and DER were used by investors to predict the Stock Return in Indonesia Stock Exchange in 2009–2014 period. This study confirmed the previous studies that these variables are involved on regression model to predict the Stock Return. The results of the analysis of the company's financial performance with EVA and MVA and financial fundamental variables provide a better alternative picture on the achievement of the company so that the benefits in investing in the palm oil business in Indonesia can be maximally managed.Keywords: Indonesia Stock Exchange, investor, market, multiple regression, stock

  1. Stock Markets Indices in Artificial Insymmetrization Patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Makowiec, D.

    2002-01-01

    The daily data of indices of Warsaw Stock Exchange - WIG, and New York Stock Exchange - NASDAQ, NYSE and S and P 500 for the last two years are being studied. Properties of fluctuations of daily returns found from scaling analysis of tails are confronted with patterns obtained by the artificial insymmetrization method to specify difference between the world-wide American market and local and rather marginal Polish market. (author)

  2. Stock Price Synchronicity and Material Sustainability Information

    OpenAIRE

    Grewal, Jody; Hauptmann, Clarissa; Serafeim, Georgios

    2017-01-01

    We examine if, and under what conditions, disclosure of sustainability information identified as investor relevant by market-driven innovations in accounting standard-setting, is associated with stock prices reflecting more firm-specific information and thereby lower synchronicity with market and industry returns. We find that firms voluntarily disclosing more sustainability information, identified as material by the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB), have lower stock price syn...

  3. O impacto da liquidez nos retornos esperados das debêntures brasileiras El impacto de la liquidez en los rendimientos esperados de las obligaciones brasileñas The impact of liquidity on expected returns from Brazilian corporate bonds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruno Hofheinz Giacomoni

    2013-03-01

    ño. Se realizaron análisis de regresión con datos de panel desbalanceado de 101 obligaciones durante ocho semestres (del primero semestre de 2006 al segundo semestre de 2009, con un total de 382 observaciones. Se utilizaron siete proxies (spread de compra y venta, %cero returns, edad, volumen de emisión, valor nominal de emisión, cantidad emitida y %tiempo para evaluar el impacto del riesgo de liquidez en los rendimientos de las obligaciones. El diferencial de rendimiento fue controlado por hasta diez otras variables determinantes a excepción de la liquidez (interés, riesgo crédito, tasa libre de riesgo, rating, duration, cuatro variables contables y equity volatility. La hipótesis nula de que no existe una prima de liquidez para el mercado secundario de obligaciones en Brasil fue rechazada sólo para tres de los siete proxies (spread de compra y venta, valor nominal de emisión y cantidad emitida. Los premios encontrados son muy bajos (1,9 basis point para cada 100 basis point de aumento del spread de compra y venta, 0,5 basis point a un aumento del 1% en el valor nominal de emisión y 0,17 basis point para al menos 1000 debentures emitidos. De todos modos hubo una pérdida en la eficiencia de los proxies de liquidez después de la corrección de las autocorrelaciones y potenciales endogeneidades, ya sea por medio de la inclusión de efectos fijos, del análisis de las primeras diferencias o del uso de un sistema de tres ecuaciones. Estos resultados apuntan hacia la sospecha de que el riesgo de liquidez no es un factor importante en la composición de las expectativas de los inversores en el mercado secundario de bonos.This study aims to identify the impact of liquidity risk on expected excess returns of Brazilian corporate bonds in the secondary market. We performed a battery of regression analysis with semiannual unbalanced panel data for 101 securities over eight semesters (first semester of 2006 to the second half of 2009, totaling 382 observations. Seven

  4. Mark Stock | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stock Mark Stock Scientific Visualization Specialist Mark.Stock@nrel.gov | 303-275-4174 Dr. Stock , virtual reality, parallel computing, and manipulation of large spatial data sets. As an artist, he creates . Stock built the SUNLIGHT artwork that is installed on the Webb Building in downtown Denver. In addition

  5. Flight to Safety from European Stock Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aslanidis, Nektarios; Christiansen, Charlotte

    -return trade-off is positive and during flight-to-safety episodes it is negative. The effects of flight-to-safety episodes on the risk-return trade-off are qualitatively similar for own country flight-to-safety episodes, for flight from own country stock market to the US bond market, and for US flight......This paper investigates flight-to-safety from stocks to bonds in seven European markets. We use quantile regressions to identify flight-to-safety episodes. The simple risk-return trade-off on the stock markets is negative which is caused by flight-to-safety episodes: During normal periods, the risk...

  6. Clustering stocks using partial correlation coefficients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Sean S.; Chang, Woojin

    2016-11-01

    A partial correlation analysis is performed on the Korean stock market (KOSPI). The difference between Pearson correlation and the partial correlation is analyzed and it is found that when conditioned on the market return, Pearson correlation coefficients are generally greater than those of the partial correlation, which implies that the market return tends to drive up the correlation between stock returns. A clustering analysis is then performed to study the market structure given by the partial correlation analysis and the members of the clusters are compared with the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The initial hypothesis is that the firms in the same GICS sector are clustered together since they are in a similar business and environment. However, the result is inconsistent with the hypothesis and most clusters are a mix of multiple sectors suggesting that the traditional approach of using sectors to determine the proximity between stocks may not be sufficient enough to diversify a portfolio.

  7. Oil Price Shocks and Stock Markets in BRICs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ono, Shigeki

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of oil prices on real stock returns for Brazil, China, India and Russia over 1999:1-2009:9 using VAR models. The results suggest that whereas real stock returns positively respond to some of the oil price indicators with statistical significance for China, India and Russia, those of Brazil do not show any significant responses. In addition, statistically significant asymmetric effects of oil price increases and decreases are observed in India. The analysis of variance decomposition shows that the contribution of oil price shocks to volatility in real stock returns is relatively large and statistically significant for China and Russia.

  8. Stock Market Autoregressive Dynamics: A Multinational Comparative Study with Quantile Regression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lili Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We study the nonlinear autoregressive dynamics of stock index returns in seven major advanced economies (G7 and China. The quantile autoregression model (QAR enables us to investigate the autocorrelation across the whole spectrum of return distribution, which provides more insightful conditional information on multinational stock market dynamics than conventional time series models. The relation between index return and contemporaneous trading volume is also investigated. While prior studies have mixed results on stock market autocorrelations, we find that the dynamics is usually state dependent. The results for G7 stock markets exhibit conspicuous similarities, but they are in manifest contrast to the findings on Chinese stock markets.

  9. Firm Size and the Information Content of Over-the-Counter Common Stock Offerings

    OpenAIRE

    Robert M. Hull; George E. Pinches

    1995-01-01

    We examine the announcement period of stock returns for 179 over-the-counter (OTC) firms that issue common stock to reduce nonconvertible debt. We find that small OTC firms experience returns that are significantly more negative than large OTC firms. Regression tests reveal that firm size is a significant factor in accounting for stock returns. Other tests establish as firm size a dominant effect. Our support for a firm size effect is consistent with a differential information effect given th...

  10. Time-bound product returns and optimal order quantities for mass merchandisers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Min-Chun; Goh, Mark

    2012-01-01

    The return guidelines for a mass merchandiser usually entail a grace period, a markdown on the original price and the condition of the returned items. This research utilises eight scenarios formed from the variation of possible return guidelines to model the cost functions of single-product categories for a typical mass merchandiser. Models for the eight scenarios are developed and solved with the objective of maximising the expected profit so as to obtain closed form solutions for the associated optimal order quantity. An illustrative example and sensitivity analysis are provided to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Our results show that merchandisers who allow for returns within a time window, albeit with a penalty cost imposed and the returned products being recoverable, should plan for larger order amounts as such products do not affect the business. Similarly, the merchandisers who allow for returns beyond a grace period and without any penalty charges, but where the returned products are irrecoverable, should manage their stocks in this category more judiciously by ordering as little as possible so as to limit the number of returns and carefully consider the effects of their customer satisfaction-guaranteed policies, if any.

  11. Determinant Keputusan investasi dan Pengaruhnya Terhadap Return Saham Pada Perusahaan Manufaktur di Bursa Efek Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Silalahi, Alistraja Dison

    2012-01-01

    Determinant investment decision and its influence to return stock. This research aimed to know whether capital structure, ROI, net profit and firm size are influence to investment decision. This research is also to test and analize the influence of capital structure, ROI, net profit and investment decision toward return stock at manufacture companies in Indonesian Stock Exchange. The population in this research is manufacture companies which are registered in Indonesian stock exchange at ...

  12. MANAJEMEN LABA, RETURN SAHAM, DAN KINERJA OPERASI SEBAGAI PEMODERASI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farid Addy Sumantri

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to determine the indications of the practice of earnings management at the time of the IPO, one year after the IPO, and two years after the IPO. This study also examined the effect of earnings management on stock returns and operating performance in moderating the relationship between earnings management and stock returns. The study sample comprised 33 firms that go public in the year 2007 to 2011 using a purposive sampling method. Earnings management is proxied by discretionary accruals using the Modified Jones Model, which used proxy for the stock return is cummulative abnormal returns (CAR, while for the company's operating performance used proxy for the return on assets (ROA. The results showed that there were indications of earnings management at the time of the IPO, one year after the IPO, and two years after the IPO with a lower profit rate. No effect on earnings management is proxied by stock return cummulative abnormal returns (CAR. Operating performance of the company also can not moderate the relationship between earnings management with stock return.   Keywords: Earning Management, Initial Public Offering, Cummulative Abnormal Return, Return On Asset

  13. Trading Mechanisms, Return’s Volatility, and Efficiency in the Casablance Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    El Mehdi Ferrouhi

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE This paper studies the impact of the stock market continuity on the returns volatility and on the market efficiency in the Casablanca Stock Exchange. For the most active stocks, the trading mechanism used is the continuous market which is preceded by a call market pre opening session. Results obtained concerning return volatility and efficiency under the two trading mechanisms show that the continuous market returns are more volatile than the call market returns and 50% of stocks studied show independence between variations.   Keywords: Trading mechanism, microstructure, call market, continuous market, efficiency, volatility

  14. Manufacturing Capital Lingers in the Stock Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴程涛; 段铸; 张景宇; 张曙光

    2008-01-01

    Pressured by a slowdown in exports, cost increases and dwindling returns to manufacturing investments, China’s manufacturing capital has begun to shift to the real-estate and stock markets. As a matter of fact, the stock market had already felt a shock a couple of years ago when top domestic manufacturers like Midea, Gree, TCL and LMZ started to invest their idle capital in the real-estate and stock markets. Investments of manufacturing capital in both the real estate and stock markets have increased fluid capital and pushed up the value of both markets. Booms in both markets have in turn guaranteed investment returns of manufacturing capital, which further increased the stock market valuations of manufacturing capital. Such a cycle has created interest chains between listed manufacturers, the stock market and the real-estate market. Along with the ups and downs of the stock and real-estate markets, manufacturing capital now faces a dilemma: to escape or to persist? Where should it escape? When can the markets be profitable again? Just like the classic Shakespearean question: to be or not to be, that is the question.

  15. Integration Versus Segmentation: The Istanbul Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Suleyman Gokçen; Ahu Ozturkmen

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to analyse the integration versus segmentation issue for the Istanbul Stock Exchange vis-a-vis global developed markets. Two different classes of information variables are used. These are global and local variables. Global variables are the return of the world market portfolio, dividend yield of S&P 500 stock index, U.S. term structure premia and U.S. default risk yield spread. Local variables are the returns, price earning ratios and dividend yields of the Istanb...

  16. Do Hedge Funds Manipulate Stock Prices?

    OpenAIRE

    Ben-David, Itzhak; Franzoni, Francesco; Landier, Augustin; Moussawi, Rabih

    2011-01-01

    We find evidence of significant price manipulation at the stock level by hedge funds on critical reporting dates. Stocks in the top quartile by hedge fund holdings exhibit abnormal returns of 30 basis points in the last day of the month and a reversal of 25 basis points in the following day. Using intraday data, we show that a significant part of the return is earned during the last minutes of the last day of the month, at an increasing rate towards the closing bell. This evidence is consiste...

  17. Stock selection using a hybrid MCDM approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tea Poklepović

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of selecting the right stocks to invest in is of immense interest for investors on both emerging and developed capital markets. Moreover, an investor should take into account all available data regarding stocks on the particular market. This includes fundamental and stock market indicators. The decision making process includes several stocks to invest in and more than one criterion. Therefore, the task of selecting the stocks to invest in can be viewed as a multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. Using several MCDM methods often leads to divergent rankings. The goal of this paper is to resolve these possible divergent results obtained from different MCDM methods using a hybrid MCDM approach based on Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient. Five MCDM methods are selected: COPRAS, linear assignment, PROMETHEE, SAW and TOPSIS. The weights for all criteria are obtained by using the AHP method. Data for this study includes information on stock returns and traded volumes from March 2012 to March 2014 for 19 stocks on the Croatian capital market. It also includes the most important fundamental and stock market indicators for selected stocks. Rankings using five selected MCDM methods in the stock selection problem yield divergent results. However, after applying the proposed approach the final hybrid rankings are obtained. The results show that the worse stocks to invest in happen to be the same when the industry is taken into consideration or when not. However, when the industry is taken into account, the best stocks to invest in are slightly different, because some industries are more profitable than the others.

  18. KINERJA KEUANGAN KONVENSIONAL, ECONOMIC VALUE ADDED, DAN RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bambang Sudiyatno

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh kinerja keuangan konvensional; Return on Asset (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, Residual Income (RI, dan kinerja keuangan yang lebih modern; Economic Value Added (EVA terhadap return saham pada perusahaan-perusahaan dalam industry makanan dan minuman yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Pengambilan sampel dalam penelitian ini menggunakan metode sensus, karena semua perusahaan dalam industry makanan dan minuman digunakan sebagai sampel. Namun dalam proses samplingnya mengunakan metode purposive sampling, yaitu menggunakan sampel dengan criteria-kriteria tertentu. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Return on Asset (ROA dan Residual Income (RI berpengaruh positif dan secara statistik signifikan terhadap return saham pada level signifikansi 1%. Sedangkan Return on Equity (ROE berpengaruh negative dan secara statistik signifikan terhadap return saham pada level signifikansi 10%, dan Economic Value Added (ERA berpengaruh positif tetapi tidak signifikan terhadap return saham.This study aims to test the effect of conventional financial performance i.e. Return on Asset (ROA, Return on Equity (ROE, Residual Income (RI, and the more modern financial performance which is Economic Value Added (EVA toward stock returns on companies in the food and beverage industry listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. Sampling technique in this study uses the census method, all companies in the food and beverage industry are used as a sample. The process of sampling using purposive sampling method. The result shows that Return On Asset (ROA and Residual Income (RI are positive and statistic significant impact on the stock returns at significance level 1%. While the Return on Equity (ROE is negative and statistic significant impact on the stock returns at significance level 10%, Economic Value Added (EVA is positive and statistic not significant impact on the stock returns.

  19. The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence from a Quantile Impulse Response Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huiming Zhu

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses a quantile impulse response approach to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns. This process allows us to uncover asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock market returns by taking into account the different quantiles of oil price shocks. Our results show that the responses of Chinese stock market returns to oil price shocks differ greatly, depending on whether the oil and stock market is in a bust or boom state and whether the shock is driven by demand or supply. The impacts of oil price shocks on Chinese stock returns present asymmetric features. In particular during a bust phase, oil supply and demand shocks significantly depress stock market returns, while during a boom period, the aggregate demand shock enhances stock market returns. These results suggest some important implications for investors and decision makers.

  20. Portfolio volatility of Islamic and conventional stock: The case of Indonesia stock market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldrin Herwany

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Conventional finance suggests that the higher the risk of an investment, the higher the return it should give. Nevertheless, whether Islamic stocks that offer alternative investment in the stock market suggest different risk-return relationship still needs to be investigated. This empirical study is aimed at assessing risk-return behavior of Islamic stocks. This study employs cross sectional data of portfolio developed using beta-rank and market capitalization, in which daily data will better reflect the real volatility. This study also measures volatility of both conventional and Islamic stocks using Value-at-Risk (VaR. To check whether Islamic stocks are immune from any impact of financial crisis, this study utilizes three periods of observation, i.e., before, during and after the 2008 crisis. This study assesses risk and return using Multi-index model, in which variables tested are the respective fundamental factors. Results of this study will provide more accurate approach in Islamic stocks analysis.

  1. Risk Perceptions on Hurricanes: Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feria-Domínguez, José Manuel; Paneque, Pilar; Gil-Hurtado, María

    2017-06-05

    This article examines the market reaction of the main Property and Casualty (P & C) insurance companies listed in the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) to seven most recent hurricanes that hit the East Coast of the United States from 2005 to 2012. For this purpose, we run a standard short horizon event study in order to test the existence of abnormal returns around the landfalls. P & C companies are one of the most affected sectors by such events because of the huge losses to rebuild, help and compensate the inhabitants of the affected areas. From the financial investors' perception, this kind of events implies severe losses, which could influence the expected returns. Our research highlights the existence of significant cumulative abnormal returns around the landfall event window in most of the hurricanes analyzed, except for the Katrina and Sandy Hurricanes.

  2. ANALISA PENGARUH BETA, SIZE PERUSAHAAN, DER DAN PBV RATIO TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agung Sugiarto

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memperlihatkan beberapa variabel yang menjadi pemrediksi stock return. Variabel tersebut adalah Beta, Company Size, DER ratio and PBV ratio. Berdasarkan analisis regresi, beta mempunyai dampak yang positif terhadap stock return tetapi tidak signifikan, besar kecilnya perusahaan dan rasio PBV mempunyai dampak positif dan signifikan, sedangkan rasio DER mempunyai dampak negative dan signifikan terhadap stock return. Dampak variabel-variabel pada stock return pada perusahaan-perusahaan yang terdaftar di Main Board Index (MBX lebih tinggi daripada perusahaan-perusahaan yang terdaftar pada Development Board Index (DBX. The research has a purpose for showing some factors that become the predictor for the stock return. They are Beta, Company Size, DER ratio and PBV ratio. From the reggresion analysis, the results say that beta have a positive effect to the stock return, but it is not significant; the company size and PBV ratio have a positive and significant effect to the stock return; while the DER ratio have a negative and significant effect to the stock return. The variables effect on stock return in companies that listed in Main Board Index (MBX is higher than in companies listed in Development Board Index (DBX.

  3. Energy prices, volatility, and the stock market. Evidence from the Eurozone

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oberndorfer, Ulrich

    2009-01-01

    This paper constitutes a first analysis on stock returns of energy corporations from the Eurozone. It focuses on the relationship between energy market developments and the pricing of European energy stocks. According to our results, oil price hikes negatively impact on stock returns of European utilities. However, they lead to an appreciation of oil and gas stocks. Interestingly, forecastable oil market volatility negatively affects European oil and gas stocks, implying profit opportunities for strategic investors. In contrast, the gas market does not play a role for the pricing of Eurozone energy stocks. Coal price developments affect the stock returns of European utilities. However, this effect is small compared to oil price impacts, although oil is barely used for electricity generation in Europe. This suggests that for the European stock market, the oil price is the main indicator for energy price developments as a whole. (author)

  4. Distinguishing manipulated stocks via trading network analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Shen, Hua-Wei; Wang, Zhao-Yang

    2011-10-01

    Manipulation is an important issue for both developed and emerging stock markets. For the study of manipulation, it is critical to analyze investor behavior in the stock market. In this paper, an analysis of the full transaction records of over a hundred stocks in a one-year period is conducted. For each stock, a trading network is constructed to characterize the relations among its investors. In trading networks, nodes represent investors and a directed link connects a stock seller to a buyer with the total trade size as the weight of the link, and the node strength is the sum of all edge weights of a node. For all these trading networks, we find that the node degree and node strength both have tails following a power-law distribution. Compared with non-manipulated stocks, manipulated stocks have a high lower bound of the power-law tail, a high average degree of the trading network and a low correlation between the price return and the seller-buyer ratio. These findings may help us to detect manipulated stocks.

  5. Why do Goals Matter? Sport Events and Capital Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aurora Murgea

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Expected utility theory and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH seem to be unable to properly explain the returns’ evolution in the stock market. The players does not act as rational as the theories assume and the prices seldom follow the EMH rules. The football clubs stock prices represent a good example for this statement since their stockholders have both rationale and emotional reasons for their investment. On the one side, they act as a regular investor who decide been driven by profit but on the other side they are usually fans of those clubs and have an emotional determinant for holding the stocks. The aim of this paper is analyses the relationship between the football matches outcomes and price returns on a time span that range during ten seasons 2006/2007 – 2015/2016, for Borussia Dortmund (Germany, AFC Ajax (Holland, Lazio (Italy and a nine seasons time span(2007/2008 – 2015/2016 for SL Benfica (Portugal.

  6. An Empirical Investigation of Risk-Return Relations in Chinese Equity Markets: Evidence from Aggregate and Sectoral Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas C. Chiang

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the risk-return relations in Chinese equity markets. Based on a TARCH-M model, evidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility, supporting the risk-return relation in both aggregate and sectoral markets. Evidence finds a positive relation between stock return and intertemporal downside risk, while controlling for sentiment and liquidity. This study suggests that the U.S. stress risk or the world downside risk should be priced into the Chinese stocks. The paper concludes that the risk-return tradeoff is present in the GARCH-in-mean, local downside risk-return, and global risk-return relations.

  7. TÜRKİYE HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI GETİRİ VE OYNAKLIĞINDAKİ UZUN DÖNEM BAĞIMLILIK İÇİN AMPİRİK BİR ANALİZ (AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS FOR LONG TERM-DEPENDENCE IN THE RETURN AND VOLATILITY OF TURKISH STOCK MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serpil TÜRKYILMAZ

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available ÖZ: Çalışma ARFIMA-FIGARCH modelleri yardımıyla Türkiye hisse senedi piyasası getirilerinde ikili uzun hafıza özelliğinin varlığını incelemekte dolayısıyla zayıf formda etkin piyasa hipotezini test etmektedir. Bu amaçla kullanılan veri 2010-2013 dönemi Borsa İstanbul (BIST için günlük hisse senedi kapanış fiyatlarını içermektedir. Öncelikle ortalama ve oynaklıktaki uzun hafızanın varlığı ayrı olarak incelenmiştir. ARFIMA modeli sonuçları BIST getirileri için ortalamada uzun hafıza özelliği gösterirken, getiri oynaklıklarındaki uzun hafızanın varlığı için FIGARCH modeli de istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar vermiştir. İkinci olarak, ortalama ve oynaklıktaki birlikte uzun hafıza özelliği ARFIMA-FIGARCH modeli ile değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, ortalamada uzun hafızanın varlığına dair bir bulgu elde edilemezken, oynaklığın öngörülebilir bir yapı gösterdiği Türkiye borsası etkin bir piyasa değildir. Anahtar Kelimeler: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, İkili Uzun Hafıza, Oynaklık, Yapısal Kırılma, Etkin Piyasa Hipotezi. ABSTRACT: The study examines presence of dual long memory property in returns of Turkish Stock Market by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model and, tests Weak Form Efficient Market Hypothesis. The data set consists of daily closing prices for the period 2010 to 2013 of Istanbul Stock Exchange. Firstly, long memory property in return and volatility has been investigated separately. FIGARCH model indicates statistically significant findings while the results of ARFIMA model display long memory dynamics in returns of BIST. Secondly, long memory in return and volatility has been evaluated simultaneously by using ARFIMA-FIGARCH model. Consequently, Turkish Stock Market is not Efficient Market because volatility shows forecastable structure while there have not been obtained any finding about presence of long memory in return. Keywords: ARFIMA-FIGARCH, Dual Long Memory

  8. Essays on investing in stock and bond markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, Ivo

    2017-01-01

    This Ph.D. thesis consists of three chapters about investing in stock and bond markets. The first chapter studies the financial market’s response to economic news as function of the economic environment by attributing the daily stock returns to its main drivers. The second chapter studies the cross

  9. Macroeconomic determinants of conditional stock-bond correlation ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study focuses on the dependence of stock-bond returns correlation on inflation and interest rate, and attempts to explain conditional stock-bond correlation using the argument that these variables' effects change based on levels of their volatilities as suggested by rational present value asset pricing theory, rather than ...

  10. The return to foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Carl-Johan Lars; Hansen, Henrik

    We investigate the marginal productivity of investment across countries. The aim is to estimate the return on investments financed by foreign aid and by domestic resource mobilization, using aggregate data. Both returns are expected to vary across countries and time. Consequently we develop...... a correlated random coefficients model, to estimate the average aggregate return on ‘aid investments’ and ‘domestic investments’. Across different estimators and two different sources for GDP and investment data our findings are remarkably robust; the average gross return on ‘aid investments’ is about 20 per...

  11. Stock portfolio selection using Dempster–Shafer evidence theory

    OpenAIRE

    Mitra Thakur, Gour Sundar; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Sarkar (Mondal), Seema

    2016-01-01

    Markowitz’s return–risk model for stock portfolio selection is based on the historical return data of assets. In addition to the effect of historical return, there are many other critical factors which directly or indirectly influence the stock market. We use the fuzzy Delphi method to identify the critical factors initially. Factors having lower correlation coefficients are finally considered for further consideration. The critical factors and historical data are used to apply Dempster–Shafe...

  12. The Indian Stock Market and the Great Recession

    OpenAIRE

    Arindam MANDAL; Prasun BHATTACHARJEE

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes the impact of the outbreak of the Great Recession of 2007 on the behavior of the Indian stock market. The SENSEX index of the Bombay Stock Exchange is analyzed for the prerecession period of January 2002 – November 2007 and the postrecession outbreak period of December 2007 – July 2010. Substantial increase in SENSEX return volatility observed during the post-recession outbreak period, whereas no substantial difference in returns between two periods is...

  13. Fluctuation behaviors of financial return volatility duration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Hongli; Wang, Jun; Lu, Yunfan

    2016-04-01

    It is of significantly crucial to understand the return volatility of financial markets because it helps to quantify the investment risk, optimize the portfolio, and provide a key input of option pricing models. The characteristics of isolated high volatility events above certain threshold in price fluctuations and the distributions of return intervals between these events arouse great interest in financial research. In the present work, we introduce a new concept of daily return volatility duration, which is defined as the shortest passage time when the future volatility intensity is above or below the current volatility intensity (without predefining a threshold). The statistical properties of the daily return volatility durations for seven representative stock indices from the world financial markets are investigated. Some useful and interesting empirical results of these volatility duration series about the probability distributions, memory effects and multifractal properties are obtained. These results also show that the proposed stock volatility series analysis is a meaningful and beneficial trial.

  14. Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Impact Of Monetary Policy On Financial Asset Returns: An Analysis Of Selected Stocks From The Nigerian Capital Market. ... Journal of Research in National Development. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current ...

  15. INDIKATOR MAKROEKONOMI DAN RETURN SAHAM SYARIAH DI INDONESIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Utami Baroroh

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study are to examine empirical test the long term equilibrium and simulteneous relationship between macroeconomics variables to stock return in Indonesia and to observe stock return response because shock/innovation of inflation, SBI discount rate and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar. The data sample used in this study are monthly time series data from 2003.1 – 2010.6. Those data are SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI, exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar, money supply and stock return (IHSG. A method of analysis in this study are Granger Causality Test and Cointegration test. The empirical results shows that SBI discount rate, inflation (CPI, and exchange rate Rupiah to US dollar have causality relationship to stock return.. The cointegration test indicates that among research variables there is long term equilibrium and simultaneous relationshipDOI: 10.15408/sjie.v2i2.2421

  16. Multifractal structures for the Russian stock market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikeda, Taro

    2018-02-01

    In this paper, we apply the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA) to the Russian stock price returns. To the best of our knowledge, this paper is the first to reveal the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market by financial crises. The contributions of the paper are twofold. (i) Finding the multifractal structures for the Russian stock market. The generalized Hurst exponents estimated become highly-nonlinear to the order of the fluctuation functions. (ii) Computing the multifractality degree according to Zunino et al. (2008). We find that the multifractality degree of the Russian stock market can be categorized within emerging markets, however, the Russian 1998 crisis and the global financial crisis dampen the degree when we consider the order of the polynomial trends in the MFDFA.

  17. Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Implications for Long-Term Investors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierdijk, L.; Bikker, J.A.

    2012-01-01

    This paper discusses the implications of mean reversion in stock prices for longterm investors such as pension funds. We start with a general definition of a meanreverting price process and explain how mean reversion in stock prices is related to mean reversion in stock returns. Subsequently, we

  18. The Impact of a Surprise Dividend Increase on a Stocks Performance : the Analysis of Companies Listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Słoński

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The reaction of marginal investors to the announcement of a surprise dividend increase has been measured. Although field research is performed on companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, the paper has important theoretical implications. Valuation theory gives many clues for the interpretation of changes in dividends. At the start of the literature review, the assumption of the irrelevance of dividends (to investment decisions is described. This assumption is the basis for up-to-date valuation procedures leading to fundamental and fair market valuation of equity (shares. The paper is designed to verify whether the market value of stock is immune to the surprise announcement of a dividend increase. This study of the effect of a surprise dividend increase gives the chance to partially isolate such an event from dividend changes based on long-term expectations. The result of the research explicitly shows that a surprise dividend increase is on average welcomed by investors (an average abnormal return of 2.24% with an associated p-value of 0.001. Abnormal returns are realized by investors when there is a surprise increase in a dividend payout. The subsample of relatively high increases in a dividend payout enables investors to gain a 3.2% return on average. The results show that valuation models should be revised to take into account a possible impact of dividend changes on investors behavior. (original abstract

  19. Black swans in the brazilian stock market

    OpenAIRE

    Lovisolo,Hugo Jacob; Leal,Ricardo Pereira Câmara

    2013-01-01

    This study analyzes extreme values in the daily returns of 45 Brazilian stocks between 2 January 1995 and 18 March 2009. The incidence of observations outside the range of three standard deviationsfrom the mean is at least five times greater than under the normal distribution. The occurrence of extreme values in the upper tail is 1.13 times higher than in the lower. The average of the extreme positive returns is higher than that of extreme negative returns. Half percent of the days determined...

  20. EFFICIENCY AND STOCK PERFORMANCE OF BANKS IN TRANSITION COUNTRIES: IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gülin Vardar

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates the link between the cost and profit efficiency scores of the banks in the Central and Eastern European Countries as well as Turkey along with their stock price performance to determine whether the efficiency scores are priced accordingly in bank stocks. Changes in efficiency scores of banks, obtained from Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA model, are regressed against their stock price performance by applying fixed effects panel regression technique. Empirical results indicate that changes in profit efficiency estimates have a positive and significant impact on stock returns; however, a significant but negative relationship is found between changes in cost efficiency and stock returns.