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Sample records for expected rates false

  1. A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Antonio I.

    The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer

  2. Using the false memory paradigm to test two key elements of alcohol expectancy theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Richard R; Goldman, Mark S; Noll, Jane A

    2004-05-01

    Two key aspects of alcohol expectancy theory--(a) that memories about alcohol effects are stored as relatively cohesive templates of information and (b) that these templates are automatically activated in alcohol-related contexts--were tested using the Deese-Roediger- McDermott false memory paradigm. Alcohol expectancy adjectives were studied, and false memory for expectancy target words was tested in neutral and alcohol contexts. Results indicated that in the alcohol context heavier drinkers showed more false memory for alcohol expectancy words than they did in a neutral context. Differences were not found for lighter drinkers. These results were consistent with alcohol expectancy theory, which was then compared with various forms of association theory in explaining these results and larger issues in the addiction field. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

  3. Introducing False EUR and False EUR exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

    2000-10-01

    The Euro ( EUR) is a new currency introduced by the European Community. Its exchange rate is very puzzling. We have invented a false Euro ( FEUR) dating back to 1993 and have derived the exchange rates of the FEUR with respect to currencies not belonging to the EUR, i.e., DKK, CHF, JPY and USD. This allows us to search for correlations between the fluctuations preexisting to the introduction of EUR and present ones in such financial data. The detrended fluctuation analysis ( DFA) statistical method is used. This leads to assume a power-law behavior, i.e., a scaling hypothesis, through an exponent α. The latter has demonstrated its usefulness for the investigations of long-range power-law correlations in several types of financial sequences. Our findings show that the α exponent interestingly characterizes fractional Brownian motion of the currency exchange rates between EUR and DKK over a 25 day interval, and usual Brownian motion otherwise and for the three other investigated exchange rates. We can devise an investment strategy based on the localα technique and obtain appreciable gains for the time being.

  4. Misconceptions and false expectations in neutral evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS Y. VALENZUELA

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral evolution results from random recurrent mutation and genetic drift. A small part of random evolution, that which is related to protein or DNA polymorphisms, is the subject of the Neutral Theory of Evolution. One of the foundations of this theory is the demonstration that the mutation rate (m is equal to the substitution rate. Since both rates are independent of population size, they are independent of drift, which is dependent upon population size. Neutralists have erroneously equated the substitution rate with the fixation rate, despite the fact that they are antithetical conceptions. The neutralists then applied the random walk stochastic model to justify alleles or bases that were fixated or eliminated. In this model, once the allele or base frequencies reach the monomorphic states (values of 1.0 or 0.0, the absorbing barriers, they can no longer return to the polymorphic state. This operates in a pure mathematical model. If recurrent mutation occurs (as in biotic real systems fixation and elimination are impossible. A population of bacteria in which m=10-8 base mutation (or substitution/site/generation and the reproduction rate is 1000 cell cycle/year should replace all its genome bases in approximately 100,000 years. The expected situation for all sites is polymorphism for the four bases rather than monomorphism at 1.0 or 0.0 frequencies. If fixation and elimination of a base for more than 500,000 years are impossible, then most of the neutral theory is untenable. A new complete neutral model, which allows for recurrent substitutions, is proposed here based on recurrent mutation or substitution and drift alone. The model fits a binomial or Poisson distribution and not a geometric one, as does neutral theory.

  5. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  6. Low-Rate DDoS Attack Detection Using Expectation of Packet Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-rate Distributed Denial-of-Service (low-rate DDoS attacks are a new challenge to cyberspace, as the attackers send a large amount of attack packets similar to normal traffic, to throttle legitimate flows. In this paper, we propose a measurement—expectation of packet size—that is based on the distribution difference of the packet size to distinguish two typical low-rate DDoS attacks, the constant attack and the pulsing attack, from legitimate traffic. The experimental results, obtained using a series of real datasets with different times and different tolerance factors, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed measurement. In addition, extensive experiments are performed to show that the proposed measurement can detect the low-rate DDoS attacks not only in the short and long terms but also for low packet rates and high packet rates. Furthermore, the false-negative rates and the adjudication distance can be adjusted based on the detection sensitivity requirements.

  7. Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  8. Production of sensitivity and false alarm rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han Zijie; Kang Wu; Chu Chengsheng; Hao Fanhua; Liu Xiaoya; Cao Lin; Hu Yongbo; Gong Jian; Xiang Yongchun; Zhang Jianhua; Yang Xiangdong

    2007-01-01

    The false alarm rate and sensitivity in nuclear material monitoring system are affected by alarm principle. Two different alarm principles are studied with theory and experiment analysis in this paper. Our research shows that theory analysis and experiment result are accordant very much. This study provides technology support for designing better alarm principle in nuclear material monitoring system. (authors)

  9. False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine-Based Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G S; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M; Berns, Jeffrey S; Parikh, Chirag R; Wilson, F Perry

    2015-10-07

    Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false-positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false-positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient's true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false-positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%-8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false-positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%-30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%-2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values false-positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  10. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Holger; Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

    2016-01-01

    A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition.

  11. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Cramer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs. Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73% in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p=0.03. For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%. The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants’ sociodemographic and health condition.

  12. Intersubject Differences in False Nonmatch Rates for a Fingerprint-Based Authentication System

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    Jeroen Breebaart

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The intersubject dependencies of false nonmatch rates were investigated for a minutiae-based biometric authentication process using single enrollment and verification measurements. A large number of genuine comparison scores were subjected to statistical inference tests that indicated that the number of false nonmatches depends on the subject and finger under test. This result was also observed if subjects associated with failures to enroll were excluded from the test set. The majority of the population (about 90% showed a false nonmatch rate that was considerably smaller than the average false nonmatch rate of the complete population. The remaining 10% could be characterized as “goats” due to their relatively high probability for a false nonmatch. The image quality reported by the template extraction module only weakly correlated with the genuine comparison scores. When multiple verification attempts were investigated, only a limited benefit was observed for “goats,” since the conditional probability for a false nonmatch given earlier nonsuccessful attempts increased with the number of attempts. These observations suggest that (1 there is a need for improved identification of “goats” during enrollment (e.g., using dedicated signal-driven analysis and classification methods and/or the use of multiple enrollment images and (2 there should be alternative means for identity verification in the biometric system under test in case of two subsequent false nonmatches.

  13. Sample size reassessment for a two-stage design controlling the false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehetmayer, Sonja; Graf, Alexandra C; Posch, Martin

    2015-11-01

    Sample size calculations for gene expression microarray and NGS-RNA-Seq experiments are challenging because the overall power depends on unknown quantities as the proportion of true null hypotheses and the distribution of the effect sizes under the alternative. We propose a two-stage design with an adaptive interim analysis where these quantities are estimated from the interim data. The second stage sample size is chosen based on these estimates to achieve a specific overall power. The proposed procedure controls the power in all considered scenarios except for very low first stage sample sizes. The false discovery rate (FDR) is controlled despite of the data dependent choice of sample size. The two-stage design can be a useful tool to determine the sample size of high-dimensional studies if in the planning phase there is high uncertainty regarding the expected effect sizes and variability.

  14. Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2009-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

  15. Voting experiments: Bandwagon voting or false-consensus effect?

    OpenAIRE

    Ivo Bischoff; Henrik Egbert

    2008-01-01

    In an experiment designed to test for expressive voting, Tyran (JPubEc 2004) found a strong positive correlation between the participants' approval for a proposal to donate money for charity and their expected approval rate for fellow voters. This phenomenon can be due to bandwagon voting or a false consensus effect. The social science literature reports both effects for voting decisions. Replicating Tyran's experiment and adding new treatments, we provide evidence for a false consensus effec...

  16. High false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian patients on regular hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sherif, Assem; Elbahrawy, Ashraf; Aboelfotoh, Atef; Abdelkarim, Magdy; Saied Mohammad, Abdel-Gawad; Abdallah, Abdallah Mahmoud; Mostafa, Sadek; Elmestikawy, Amr; Elwassief, Ahmed; Salah, Mohamed; Abdelbaseer, Mohamed Ali; Abdelwahab, Kouka Saadeldin

    2012-07-01

    Routine serological testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among hemodialysis (HD) patients is currently recommended. A dilemma existed on the value of serology because some investigators reported a high rate of false-negative serologic testing. In this study, we aimed to detect the false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian HD patients. Seventy-eight HD patients, negative for anti-HCV, anti-HIV, and hepatitis B surface antigen, were tested for HCV RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In the next step, the viral load was quantified by real-time PCR in RT-PCR-positive patients. Risk factors for HCV infection, as well as clinical and biochemical indicators of liver disease, were compared between false-negative and true-negative anti-HCV HD patients. The frequency of false-negative anti-HCV was 17.9%. Frequency of blood transfusion, duration of HD, dialysis at multiple centers, and diabetes mellitus were not identified as risk factors for HCV infection. The frequency of false-negative results had a linear relation to the prevalence of HCV infection in the HD units. Timely identification of HCV within dialysis units is needed in order to lower the risk of HCV spread within the HD units. The high false-negative rate of anti-HCV among HD patients in our study justifies testing of a large scale of patients for precious assessment of effectiveness of nucleic acid amplification technology testing in screening HD patient. © 2012 The Authors. Hemodialysis International © 2012 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  17. Reduced nicotine content cigarette advertising: How false beliefs and subjective ratings affect smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercincavage, Melissa; Saddleson, Megan L; Gup, Emily; Halstead, Angela; Mays, Darren; Strasser, Andrew A

    2017-04-01

    Tobacco advertising can create false beliefs about health harms that are reinforced by product design features. Reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes may reduce harm, but research has not addressed advertising influences. This study examined RNC cigarette advertising effects on false harm beliefs, and how these beliefs - along with initial subjective ratings of RNC cigarettes - affect subsequent smoking behaviors. We further explored whether subjective ratings moderate associations between false beliefs and behavior. Seventy-seven daily, non-treatment-seeking smokers (66.2% male) participated in the first 15days of a randomized, controlled, open-label RNC cigarette trial. Participants viewed an RNC cigarette advertisement at baseline before completing a 5-day period of preferred brand cigarette use, followed by a 10-day period of RNC cigarette use (0.6mg nicotine yield). Participants provided pre- and post-advertisement beliefs, and subjective ratings and smoking behaviors for cigarettes smoked during laboratory visits. Viewing the advertisement increased beliefs that RNC cigarettes contain less nicotine and are healthier than regular cigarettes (p'saffected smoking behaviors. Significant interactions of strength and taste ratings with beliefs (p'ssmokers with less negative initial subjective ratings, greater false beliefs were associated with greater RNC cigarette consumption. Smokers may misconstrue RNC cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes. These beliefs, in conjunction with favorable subjective ratings, may increase product use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Introducing Bayesian thinking to high-throughput screening for false-negative rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xin; Gao, Lin; Zhang, Xiaolei; Qian, Hong; Rowan, Karen; Mark, David; Peng, Zhengwei; Huang, Kuo-Sen

    2013-10-01

    High-throughput screening (HTS) has been widely used to identify active compounds (hits) that bind to biological targets. Because of cost concerns, the comprehensive screening of millions of compounds is typically conducted without replication. Real hits that fail to exhibit measurable activity in the primary screen due to random experimental errors will be lost as false-negatives. Conceivably, the projected false-negative rate is a parameter that reflects screening quality. Furthermore, it can be used to guide the selection of optimal numbers of compounds for hit confirmation. Therefore, a method that predicts false-negative rates from the primary screening data is extremely valuable. In this article, we describe the implementation of a pilot screen on a representative fraction (1%) of the screening library in order to obtain information about assay variability as well as a preliminary hit activity distribution profile. Using this training data set, we then developed an algorithm based on Bayesian logic and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the number of true active compounds and potential missed hits from the full library screen. We have applied this strategy to five screening projects. The results demonstrate that this method produces useful predictions on the numbers of false negatives.

  19. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  20. Education for All: High Expectations or False Hopes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallak, Jacques

    Although the World Conference on Education for All, held in March 1990 in Jomtien, Thailand, fostered international consensus on educational goals and raised expectations, obstacles to successful achievement of education for all (EFA) must be identified. This paper describes the five most important obstacles--political factors, economic/financial…

  1. False-Negative Rate of Gram-Stain Microscopy for Diagnosis of Septic Arthritis: Suggestions for Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Stirling

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the false-negative diagnostic rate of septic arthritis using Gram-stain microscopy of synovial fluid and compare this to values reported in the peer-reviewed literature. We propose a method of improving the diagnostic value of Gram-stain microscopy using Lithium Heparin containers that prevent synovial fluid coagulation. Retrospective study of the Manchester Royal Infirmary microbiology database of patients undergoing synovial fluid Gram-stain and culture between December 2003 and March 2012 was undertaken. The initial cohort of 1896 synovial fluid analyses for suspected septic arthritis was reduced to 143 after exclusion criteria were applied. Analysis of our Gram-stain microscopy yielded 111 false-negative results from a cohort size of 143 positive synovial fluid cultures, giving a false-negative rate of 78%. We report a false-negative rate of Gram-stain microscopy for septic arthritis of 78%. Clinicians should therefore avoid the investigation until a statistically significant data set confirms its efficacy. The investigation's value could be improved by using Lithium Heparin containers to collect homogenous synovial fluid samples. Ongoing research aims to establish how much this could reduce the false-negative rate.

  2. Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Yu-Min

    2013-01-01

    Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR), an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

  3. Use of the false discovery rate for evaluating clinical safety data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Devan V; Heyse, Joseph F

    2004-06-01

    Clinical adverse experience (AE) data are routinely evaluated using between group P values for every AE encountered within each of several body systems. If the P values are reported and interpreted without multiplicity considerations, there is a potential for an excess of false positive findings. Procedures based on confidence interval estimates of treatment effects have the same potential for false positive findings as P value methods. Excess false positive findings can needlessly complicate the safety profile of a safe drug or vaccine. Accordingly, we propose a novel method for addressing multiplicity in the evaluation of adverse experience data arising in clinical trial settings. The method involves a two-step application of adjusted P values based on the Benjamini and Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR). Data from three moderate to large vaccine trials are used to illustrate our proposed 'Double FDR' approach, and to reinforce the potential impact of failing to account for multiplicity. This work was in collaboration with the late Professor John W. Tukey who coined the term 'Double FDR'.

  4. Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Min Yen

    Full Text Available Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR, an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

  5. LOW FALSE POSITIVE RATE OF KEPLER CANDIDATES ESTIMATED FROM A COMBINATION OF SPITZER AND FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Désert, Jean-Michel; Brown, Timothy M.; Charbonneau, David; Torres, Guillermo; Fressin, François; Ballard, Sarah; Latham, David W.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Borucki, William J.; Knutson, Heather A.; Batalha, Natalie M.; Deming, Drake; Ford, Eric B.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Seager, Sara

    2015-01-01

    NASA’s Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates during the 4 yr of its nominal mission, yet only a small subset of these candidates have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer Space Telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) among the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital, and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 μm. We use these observations to measures the candidate’s transit depths and infrared magnitudes. An authentic planet produces an achromatic transit depth (neglecting the modest effect of limb darkening). Conversely a bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the transit depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5% and depending on the Kepler Objects of Interest. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3σ. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated

  6. LOW FALSE POSITIVE RATE OF KEPLER CANDIDATES ESTIMATED FROM A COMBINATION OF SPITZER AND FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Désert, Jean-Michel; Brown, Timothy M. [CASA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, 389-UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States); Charbonneau, David; Torres, Guillermo; Fressin, François; Ballard, Sarah; Latham, David W. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Bryson, Stephen T.; Borucki, William J. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Knutson, Heather A. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Deming, Drake [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States); Ford, Eric B. [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Gilliland, Ronald L. [Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Seager, Sara, E-mail: desert@colorado.edu [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02159 (United States)

    2015-05-01

    NASA’s Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates during the 4 yr of its nominal mission, yet only a small subset of these candidates have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer Space Telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) among the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital, and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 μm. We use these observations to measures the candidate’s transit depths and infrared magnitudes. An authentic planet produces an achromatic transit depth (neglecting the modest effect of limb darkening). Conversely a bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the transit depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5% and depending on the Kepler Objects of Interest. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3σ. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated

  7. A high false positive rate for Kepler planetary candidates of giant stars using asterodensity profiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sliski, David H.; Kipping, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Asterodensity profiling (AP) is a relatively new technique for studying transit light curves. By comparing the mean stellar density derived from the transit light curve to that found through an independent method, AP provides information on several useful properties such as orbital eccentricity and blended light. We present an AP survey of 41 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs), with a single transiting candidate, for which the target star's mean stellar density has been measured using asteroseismology. The ensemble distribution of the AP measurements for the 31 dwarf stars in our sample shows excellent agreement with the spread expected if the KOIs were genuine and have realistic eccentricities. In contrast, the same test for the 10 giants in our sample reveals significant incompatibility at >4σ confidence. While extreme eccentricities could be invoked, this hypothesis requires four of the KOIs to contact their host star at periastron passage, including the recently claimed confirmation of Kepler-91b. After carefully examining several hypotheses, we conclude that the most plausible explanation is that the transiting objects orbit a different star to that measured with asteroseismology—cases we define as false-positives. Based on the AP distribution, we estimate a false-positive rate (FPR) for Kepler's giant stars with a single transiting object of FPR ≅ 70% ± 30%.

  8. A constrained polynomial regression procedure for estimating the local False Discovery Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broët Philippe

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the context of genomic association studies, for which a large number of statistical tests are performed simultaneously, the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR, which quantifies the evidence of a specific gene association with a clinical or biological variable of interest, is a relevant criterion for taking into account the multiple testing problem. The lFDR not only allows an inference to be made for each gene through its specific value, but also an estimate of Benjamini-Hochberg's False Discovery Rate (FDR for subsets of genes. Results In the framework of estimating procedures without any distributional assumption under the alternative hypothesis, a new and efficient procedure for estimating the lFDR is described. The results of a simulation study indicated good performances for the proposed estimator in comparison to four published ones. The five different procedures were applied to real datasets. Conclusion A novel and efficient procedure for estimating lFDR was developed and evaluated.

  9. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  10. Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

    2003-06-01

    The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

  11. Effects of hydrocortisone on false memory recognition in healthy men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duesenberg, Moritz; Weber, Juliane; Schaeuffele, Carmen; Fleischer, Juliane; Hellmann-Regen, Julian; Roepke, Stefan; Moritz, Steffen; Otte, Christian; Wingenfeld, Katja

    2016-12-01

    Most of the studies focusing on the effect of stress on false memories by using psychosocial and physiological stressors yielded diverse results. In the present study, we systematically tested the effect of exogenous hydrocortisone using a false memory paradigm. In this placebo-controlled study, 37 healthy men and 38 healthy women (mean age 24.59 years) received either 10 mg of hydrocortisone or placebo 75 min before using the false memory, that is, Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM), paradigm. We used emotionally charged and neutral DRM-based word lists to look for false recognition rates in comparison to true recognition rates. Overall, we expected an increase in false memory after hydrocortisone compared to placebo. No differences between the cortisol and the placebo group were revealed for false and for true recognition performance. In general, false recognition rates were lower compared to true recognition rates. Furthermore, we found a valence effect (neutral, positive, negative, disgust word stimuli), indicating higher rates of true and false recognition for emotional compared to neutral words. We further found an interaction effect between sex and recognition. Post hoc t tests showed that for true recognition women showed a significantly better memory performance than men, independent of treatment. This study does not support the hypothesis that cortisol decreases the ability to distinguish between old versus novel words in young healthy individuals. However, sex and emotional valence of word stimuli appear to be important moderators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk, J.M.; Knot, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the

  13. Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

    2016-10-01

    Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

  14. Mobile natural gas leak surveys indicate that two utilities have high false negative rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Fischer, J. C.; Brewer, P. E.; Chamberlain, S.; Gaylord, A.; von Fischer, J.

    2016-12-01

    In the distribution systems that carry natural gas to consumers, leaks need to be discovered for safety reasons and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, few utilities have adopted newer laser-based technologies that have greater sensitivity and precision, and instead rely on "industry standard" equipment that is far less sensitive. In partnership with the Environmental Defense Fund and Google, we mapped natural gas leaks in the domains of two anonymous utilities (Utility "A" and "B") using high sensitivity Picarro methane analyzers in Google Street View Cars. Surprisingly, when we shared these results with utilities, their survey crews were unable to find most of the leaks that our survey indicated (84% in A and 80% in B). To investigate this phenomenon, our team visited a subset of the leaks in each utility domain (n=32 in A and n=30 in B), and worked alongside utility surveyors to search the leak indication area, using a Los Gatos Research ultraportable methane analyzer to pinpoint leak locations. We found evidence of natural gas leaks at 69% and 68% of the locations in Utilities A and B respectively where survey crews had found nothing. We describe this as a "false negative" rate for the utility because the utility survey falsely indicated that there was no leak at these locations. Of these false negatives, 7% (n=2 of 32 in A, n=2 of 30 in B) were determined to be Grade 1 leaks requiring immediate repair due to high safety risk. Instrument sensitivity appears to explain some of the false negative rates. In particular, use of some industry standard equipment appears to have created a false sense of confidence among utility surveyors that leaks were not present. However, there was also evidence of communication failures and that surveyors did not use optimal approaches in their search. Based on these findings, we suggest that: 1) mobile deployment of high-precision methane analyzers can help find more natural gas leaks, and 2) use of some hand-held survey

  15. Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuvan, Dominique T; Podolak, Olivia M; Schmuckler, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics.

  16. Memory for musical tones: The impact of tonality and the creation of false memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique T. Vuvan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics.

  17. Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuvan, Dominique T.; Podolak, Olivia M.; Schmuckler, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics. PMID:24971071

  18. Assessment method to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reardon, P.T.; Eggers, R.F.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-06-01

    A method has been developed to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms of material loss in a nuclear facility. The computer program DETRES-1 was developed. The program first assigns the true values of control unit components receipts, shipments, beginning and ending inventories. A normal random number generator is used to generate measured values of each component. A loss estimator is calculated from the control unit's measured values. If the loss estimator triggers a detection alarm, a response is simulated. The response simulation is divided into two phases. The first phase is to simulate remeasurement of the components of the detection loss estimator using the same or better measurement methods or inferences from surrounding control units. If this phase of response continues to indicate a material loss, phase of response simulating a production shutdown and comprehensive cleanout is initiated. A new loss estimator is found, and tested against the alarm thresholds. If the estimator value is below the threshold, the original detection alarm is considered resolved; if above the threshold, an unresolved alarm has occurred. A tally is kept of valid alarms, unresolved false alarms, and failure to alarm upon a true loss

  19. Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste

    2010-01-01

    A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

  20. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  1. Impact of Formal Mentoring on Freshmen Expectations, Graduation Rates, and GPAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nancy C.; Heilmann, Sharon G.; Johnson, Adrianne; Taylor, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the expectations, graduation rates, and GPAs of participants (n = 113) in a formal mentorship program, "Freshmen Focus," at a small, rural Midwestern high school through the framework of organizational socialization theory (Van Maanen & Schein, 1977). Findings indicate freshmen students formed…

  2. Can concurrent core biopsy and fine needle aspiration biopsy improve the false negative rate of sonographically detectable breast lesions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Tsai-Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of this study were to determine the accuracy of concurrent core needle biopsy (CNB and fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB for breast lesions and to estimate the false-negative rate using the two methods combined. Methods Over a seven-year period, 2053 patients with sonographically detectable breast lesions underwent concurrent ultrasound-guided CNB and FNAB. The sonographic and histopathological findings were classified into four categories: benign, indeterminate, suspicious, and malignant. The histopathological findings were compared with the definitive excision pathology results. Patients with benign core biopsies underwent a detailed review to determine the false-negative rate. The correlations between the ultrasonography, FNAB, and CNB were determined. Results Eight hundred eighty patients were diagnosed with malignant disease, and of these, 23 (2.5% diagnoses were found to be false-negative after core biopsy. After an intensive review of discordant FNAB results, the final false-negative rate was reduced to 1.1% (p-value = 0.025. The kappa coefficients for correlations between methods were 0.304 (p-value p-value p-value Conclusions Concurrent CNB and FNAB under ultrasound guidance can provide accurate preoperative diagnosis of breast lesions and provide important information for appropriate treatment. Identification of discordant results using careful radiological-histopathological correlation can reduce the false-negative rate.

  3. Bandwagon voting or false-consensus effect in voting experiments? First results and methodological limits

    OpenAIRE

    Bischoff, Ivo; Egbert, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    In an experiment designed to test for expressive voting, Tyran (JPubEc 2004) found a strong positive correlation between the participants' approval to a proposal to donate money for charity and their expected approval rate for fellow voters. This phenomenon can be due to a bandwagon effect or a false consensus effect. Both effects have been reported for voting decisions in the social science literature. Redoing Tyran's experiment and adding new treatments, we provide evidence for a false cons...

  4. Prospective assessment of the false positive rate of the Australian snake venom detection kit in healthy human samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimorakiotakis, Vasilios Bill; Winkel, Kenneth D

    2016-03-01

    The Snake Venom Detection Kit (SVDK; bioCSL Pty Ltd, Australia) distinguishes venom from the five most medically significant snake immunotypes found in Australia. This study assesses the rate of false positives that, by definition, refers to a positive assay finding in a sample from someone who has not been bitten by a venomous snake. Control unbroken skin swabs, simulated bite swabs and urine specimens were collected from 61 healthy adult volunteers [33 males and 28 females] for assessment. In all controls, simulated bite site and urine samples [a total of 183 tests], the positive control well reacted strongly within one minute and no test wells reacted during the ten minute incubation period. However, in two urine tests, the negative control well gave a positive reaction (indicating an uninterpretable test). A 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate, on a per-patient rate, derived from the findings of this study, would extend from 0% to 6% and, on a per-test basis, it would be 0-2%. It appears to be a very low incidence (0-6%) of intrinsic true false positives for the SVDK. The clinical impresssion of a high SVDK false positive rate may be mostly related to operator error. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. False-Positive Rate Determination of Protein Target Discovery using a Covalent Modification- and Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomics Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Erin C.; Geer, M. Ariel; Hong, Jiyong; Fitzgerald, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Detection and quantitation of protein-ligand binding interactions is important in many areas of biological research. Stability of proteins from rates of oxidation (SPROX) is an energetics-based technique for identifying the proteins targets of ligands in complex biological mixtures. Knowing the false-positive rate of protein target discovery in proteome-wide SPROX experiments is important for the correct interpretation of results. Reported here are the results of a control SPROX experiment in which chemical denaturation data is obtained on the proteins in two samples that originated from the same yeast lysate, as would be done in a typical SPROX experiment except that one sample would be spiked with the test ligand. False-positive rates of 1.2-2.2 % and analysis of the isobaric mass tag (e.g., iTRAQ®) reporter ions used for peptide quantitation. Our results also suggest that technical replicates can be used to effectively eliminate such false positives that result from this random error, as is demonstrated in a SPROX experiment to identify yeast protein targets of the drug, manassantin A. The impact of ion purity in the tandem mass spectral analyses and of background oxidation on the false-positive rate of protein target discovery using SPROX is also discussed.

  6. Controlling the local false discovery rate in the adaptive Lasso

    KAUST Repository

    Sampson, J. N.

    2013-04-09

    The Lasso shrinkage procedure achieved its popularity, in part, by its tendency to shrink estimated coefficients to zero, and its ability to serve as a variable selection procedure. Using data-adaptive weights, the adaptive Lasso modified the original procedure to increase the penalty terms for those variables estimated to be less important by ordinary least squares. Although this modified procedure attained the oracle properties, the resulting models tend to include a large number of "false positives" in practice. Here, we adapt the concept of local false discovery rates (lFDRs) so that it applies to the sequence, λn, of smoothing parameters for the adaptive Lasso. We define the lFDR for a given λn to be the probability that the variable added to the model by decreasing λn to λn-δ is not associated with the outcome, where δ is a small value. We derive the relationship between the lFDR and λn, show lFDR =1 for traditional smoothing parameters, and show how to select λn so as to achieve a desired lFDR. We compare the smoothing parameters chosen to achieve a specified lFDR and those chosen to achieve the oracle properties, as well as their resulting estimates for model coefficients, with both simulation and an example from a genetic study of prostate specific antigen.

  7. High estradiol levels improve false memory rates and meta-memory in highly schizotypal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgetts, Sophie; Hausmann, Markus; Weis, Susanne

    2015-10-30

    Overconfidence in false memories is often found in patients with schizophrenia and healthy participants with high levels of schizotypy, indicating an impairment of meta-cognition within the memory domain. In general, cognitive control is suggested to be modulated by natural fluctuations in oestrogen. However, whether oestrogen exerts beneficial effects on meta-memory has not yet been investigated. The present study sought to provide evidence that high levels of schizotypy are associated with increased false memory rates and overconfidence in false memories, and that these processes may be modulated by natural differences in estradiol levels. Using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott paradigm, it was found that highly schizotypal participants with high estradiol produced significantly fewer false memories than those with low estradiol. No such difference was found within the low schizotypy participants. Highly schizotypal participants with high estradiol were also less confident in their false memories than those with low estradiol; low schizotypy participants with high estradiol were more confident. However, these differences only approached significance. These findings suggest that the beneficial effect of estradiol on memory and meta-memory observed in healthy participants is specific to highly schizotypal individuals and might be related to individual differences in baseline dopaminergic activity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Specificity control for read alignments using an artificial reference genome-guided false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giese, Sven H; Zickmann, Franziska; Renard, Bernhard Y

    2014-01-01

    Accurate estimation, comparison and evaluation of read mapping error rates is a crucial step in the processing of next-generation sequencing data, as further analysis steps and interpretation assume the correctness of the mapping results. Current approaches are either focused on sensitivity estimation and thereby disregard specificity or are based on read simulations. Although continuously improving, read simulations are still prone to introduce a bias into the mapping error quantitation and cannot capture all characteristics of an individual dataset. We introduce ARDEN (artificial reference driven estimation of false positives in next-generation sequencing data), a novel benchmark method that estimates error rates of read mappers based on real experimental reads, using an additionally generated artificial reference genome. It allows a dataset-specific computation of error rates and the construction of a receiver operating characteristic curve. Thereby, it can be used for optimization of parameters for read mappers, selection of read mappers for a specific problem or for filtering alignments based on quality estimation. The use of ARDEN is demonstrated in a general read mapper comparison, a parameter optimization for one read mapper and an application example in single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery with a significant reduction in the number of false positive identifications. The ARDEN source code is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/arden/.

  9. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of

  10. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

  11. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

  12. Expert System Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) Processor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wicks, Michael C

    2006-01-01

    An artificial intelligence system improves radar signal processor performance by increasing target probability of detection and reducing probability of false alarm in a severe radar clutter environment...

  13. Expected Rates of Renewable Energy Sources in Meeting of Energy Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Taking the expected growth of the world’s population and the estimated technological development and increase in living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. On the basis of the actual production data of 380-400 EJ.year-1 in 2000 and data in publications, the author assumes the total energy demand to be 750-800 EJ.year-1 for 2030, 600-1,000 EJ.year-1 for 2050 and 900-3,600 EJ.year-1 for 2100. The author analyses the appearance of the different energy types in the history of mankind giving the specific heat content and heating value of the different fuels. The environmental advantages, disadvantages, technical and economic limits of application involved in the use of primary renewable energy sources are also dealt with. The analysis of the data in the different prognoses in publications gives the result that fossil fuels will meet 84-85 % of the total energy demand until 2030 in the foreseeable future. In 2050, the fossil rate may be 50-70 % and the rate of renewables may amount to 20-40 %. In 2100, the maximum fossil rate may be 40-50 % with a 30-60 % maximum rate of renewables. On the basis of the results of investigation, the general conclusion may be that the realistically exploitable amount of renewable energy sources is not so unlimitedly high as many suppose. Therefore, it is an illusion to expect that the replacement or substitution of mineral fuels and nuclear energy can be solved relying solely on renewable energies.

  14. False positive rate of carbon monoxide saturation by pulse oximetry of emergency department patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Lindell K; Churchill, Susan K; Deru, Kayla; Cooney, Darryl

    2013-02-01

    Symptoms of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning are non-specific. Diagnosis requires suspicion of exposure, confirmed by measuring ambient CO levels or carboxyhemoglobin (COHb). An FDA-approved pulse oximeter (Rad-57) can measure CO saturation (S(pCO)). The device accuracy has implications for clinical decision-making. From April 1 to August 15, 2008, study personnel measured S(pCO) and documented demographic factors at time of clinical blood draw, in a convenience sample of 1,363 subjects presenting to the emergency department at Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, Utah. The technician then assayed COHb. COHb and S(pCO) values were compared by subject; false positive or negative values were defined as S(pCO) at least 3 percentage points greater or less than COHb level, reported by the manufacturer to be ± 1 SD in performance. In 1,363 subjects, 613 (45%) were male, 1,141 (84%) were light-skinned, 14 in shock, 4 with CO poisoning, and 122 (9%) met the criteria for a false positive value (range 3-19 percentage points), while 247 (18%) met the criteria for a false negative value (-13 to -3 percentage points). Risks for a false positive S(pCO) reading included being female and having a lower perfusion index. Methemoglobin, body temperature, and blood pressure also appear to influence the S(pCO) accuracy. There was variability among monitors, possibly related to technician technique, as rotation of monitors among technicians was not enforced. While the Rad-57 pulse oximeter functioned within the manufacturer's specifications, clinicians using the Rad-57 should expect some S(pCO) readings to be significantly higher or lower than COHb measurements, and should not use S(pCO) to direct triage or patient management. An elevated S(pCO) could broaden the diagnosis of CO poisoning in patients with non-specific symptoms. However, a negative S(pCO) level in patients suspected of having CO poisoning should never rule out CO poisoning, and should always be confirmed by COHb. © 2013

  15. The effect of information about false negative and false positive rates on people's attitudes towards colorectal cancer screening using faecal occult blood testing (FOBt).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Anne; Rodrigues, Vania; Sevdalis, Nick

    2013-11-01

    To examine the impact of numeric risk information about false negative (FN) and false positive (FP) rates in faecal occult blood testing (FOBt) on attitudes towards screening. 95 people aged 45-59, living in England, read 6 hypothetical vignettes presented online about the use of FOB testing to detect bowel cancer, in which information about FN and FP rates was systematically varied. Both verbal and numeric FN risk information reduced people's interest in screening compared with no FN information. Numeric FN risk information reduced people's perceptions of screening effectiveness and lowered perceived trust in the results of screening compared with both verbal FN information and no FN information. FP information did not affect attitudes towards FOB testing. There was limited evidence that FN information reduced interest and perceptions of screening effectiveness more in educated groups. Numeric FN risk information decreased people's perceptions of screening effectiveness and trust in the results of screening but did not affect people's interest in screening anymore than verbal FN risk information. Numeric FN information could be added to patient information without affecting interest in screening, although this needs to be replicated in a larger, more representative sample. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Age Differences in the Rejection of False Memories: The Effects of Giving Warning Instructions and Slowing the Presentation Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, Paula; Fernandez, Angel

    2010-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted to examine whether children of different ages differ in their ability to reject associative false memories with the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two different types of manipulations that are thought to facilitate false memory rejection in adults--slowing the presentation rate and issuing explicit…

  17. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  18. The False Memory and the Mirror Effects: The Role of Familiarity and Backward Association in Creating False Recollections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaki, D.; Faran, Y.; Ben-Shalom, D.; Henik, A.

    2005-01-01

    The mirror effect refers to a phenomenon where the hit rate is higher for low frequency words while the false alarm rate is higher for high frequency distractors. Using a false memory paradigm (Roediger & McDermott, 1995), we examined whether false memory for non-presented lures would be influenced by the lure's familiarity. The results revealed…

  19. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  20. True photographs and false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, D Stephen; Hagen, Lisa; Read, J Don; Wade, Kimberley A; Garry, Maryanne

    2004-03-01

    Some trauma-memory-oriented psychotherapists advise clients to review old family photo albums to cue suspected "repressed" memories of childhood sexual abuse. Old photos might cue long-forgotten memories, but when combined with other suggestive influences they might also contribute to false memories. We asked 45 undergraduates to work at remembering three school-related childhood events (two true events provided by parents and one pseudoevent). By random assignment, 23 subjects were also given their school classes' group photos from the years of the to-be-recalled events as memory cues. As predicted, the rate of false-memory reports was dramatically higher in the photo condition than in the no-photo condition. Indeed, the rate of false-memory reports in the photo condition was substantially higher than the rate in any previously published study.

  1. Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2014-06-01

    The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

  2. Shear-wave elastography in the diagnosis of solid breast masses: what leads to false-negative or false-positive results?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jung Hyun; Jung, Hae Kyoung; Lee, Jong Tae; Ko, Kyung Hee

    2013-09-01

    To investigate the factors that have an effect on false-positive or false-negative shear-wave elastography (SWE) results in solid breast masses. From June to December 2012, 222 breast lesions of 199 consecutive women (mean age: 45.3 ± 10.1 years; range, 21 to 88 years) who had been scheduled for biopsy or surgical excision were included. Greyscale ultrasound and SWE were performed in all women before biopsy. Final ultrasound assessments and SWE parameters (pattern classification and maximum elasticity) were recorded and compared with histopathology results. Patient and lesion factors in the 'true' and 'false' groups were compared. Of the 222 masses, 175 (78.8 %) were benign, and 47 (21.2 %) were malignant. False-positive rates of benign masses were significantly higher than false-negative rates of malignancy in SWE patterns, 36.6 % to 6.4 % (P masses, factors showing significance among false SWE features were lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth (all P breast masses had SWE images of good quality. False SWE features were more significantly seen in benign masses. Lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth have significance in producing false results, and this needs consideration in SWE image acquisition. • Shear-wave elastography (SWE) is widely used during breast imaging • At SWE, false-positive rates were significantly higher than false-negative rates • Larger size, breast thickness, depth and fair quality influences false-positive SWE features • Smaller size, larger breast thickness and depth influences false-negative SWE features.

  3. A comparative review of estimates of the proportion unchanged genes and the false discovery rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broberg Per

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the analysis of microarray data one generally produces a vector of p-values that for each gene give the likelihood of obtaining equally strong evidence of change by pure chance. The distribution of these p-values is a mixture of two components corresponding to the changed genes and the unchanged ones. The focus of this article is how to estimate the proportion unchanged and the false discovery rate (FDR and how to make inferences based on these concepts. Six published methods for estimating the proportion unchanged genes are reviewed, two alternatives are presented, and all are tested on both simulated and real data. All estimates but one make do without any parametric assumptions concerning the distributions of the p-values. Furthermore, the estimation and use of the FDR and the closely related q-value is illustrated with examples. Five published estimates of the FDR and one new are presented and tested. Implementations in R code are available. Results A simulation model based on the distribution of real microarray data plus two real data sets were used to assess the methods. The proposed alternative methods for estimating the proportion unchanged fared very well, and gave evidence of low bias and very low variance. Different methods perform well depending upon whether there are few or many regulated genes. Furthermore, the methods for estimating FDR showed a varying performance, and were sometimes misleading. The new method had a very low error. Conclusion The concept of the q-value or false discovery rate is useful in practical research, despite some theoretical and practical shortcomings. However, it seems possible to challenge the performance of the published methods, and there is likely scope for further developing the estimates of the FDR. The new methods provide the scientist with more options to choose a suitable method for any particular experiment. The article advocates the use of the conjoint information

  4. The semantics of emotion in false memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Bookbinder, S H

    2018-03-26

    The emotional valence of target information has been a centerpiece of recent false memory research, but in most experiments, it has been confounded with emotional arousal. We sought to clarify the results of such research by identifying a shared mathematical relation between valence and arousal ratings in commonly administered normed materials. That relation was then used to (a) decide whether arousal as well as valence influences false memory when they are confounded and to (b) determine whether semantic properties that are known to affect false memory covary with valence and arousal ratings. In Study 1, we identified a quadratic relation between valence and arousal ratings of words and pictures that has 2 key properties: Arousal increases more rapidly as function of negative valence than positive valence, and hence, a given level of negative valence is more arousing than the same level of positive valence. This quadratic function predicts that if arousal as well as valence affects false memory when they are confounded, false memory data must have certain fine-grained properties. In Study 2, those properties were absent from norming data for the Cornell-Cortland Emotional Word Lists, indicating that valence but not arousal affects false memory in those norms. In Study 3, we tested fuzzy-trace theory's explanation of that pattern: that valence ratings are positively related to semantic properties that are known to increase false memory, but arousal ratings are not. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. Personnel selection and emotional stability certification: establishing a false negative error rate when clinical interviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghausen, P.E. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The security plans of nuclear plants generally require that all personnel who are to have unescorted access to protected areas or vital islands be screened for emotional instability. Screening typically consists of first administering the MMPI and then conducting a clinical interview. Interviews-by-exception protocols provide for only those employees to be interviewed who have some indications of psychopathology in their MMPI results. A problem arises when the indications are not readily apparent: False negatives are likely to occur, resulting in employees being erroneously granted unescorted access. The present paper describes the development of a predictive equation which permits accurate identification, via analysis of MMPI results, of those employees who are most in need of being interviewed. The predictive equation also permits knowing probably maximum false negative error rates when a given percentage of employees is interviewed

  6. False Positive and False Negative Effects on Network Attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Yilun

    2018-01-01

    Robustness against attacks serves as evidence for complex network structures and failure mechanisms that lie behind them. Most often, due to detection capability limitation or good disguises, attacks on networks are subject to false positives and false negatives, meaning that functional nodes may be falsely regarded as compromised by the attacker and vice versa. In this work, we initiate a study of false positive/negative effects on network robustness against three fundamental types of attack strategies, namely, random attacks (RA), localized attacks (LA), and targeted attack (TA). By developing a general mathematical framework based upon the percolation model, we investigate analytically and by numerical simulations of attack robustness with false positive/negative rate (FPR/FNR) on three benchmark models including Erdős-Rényi (ER) networks, random regular (RR) networks, and scale-free (SF) networks. We show that ER networks are equivalently robust against RA and LA only when FPR equals zero or the initial network is intact. We find several interesting crossovers in RR and SF networks when FPR is taken into consideration. By defining the cost of attack, we observe diminishing marginal attack efficiency for RA, LA, and TA. Our finding highlights the potential risk of underestimating or ignoring FPR in understanding attack robustness. The results may provide insights into ways of enhancing robustness of network architecture and improve the level of protection of critical infrastructures.

  7. Interval Breast Cancer Rates and Histopathologic Tumor Characteristics after False-Positive Findings at Mammography in a Population-based Screening Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofvind, Solveig; Sagstad, Silje; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Chen, Ying; Roman, Marta; Lee, Christoph I

    2018-04-01

    Purpose To compare rates and tumor characteristics of interval breast cancers (IBCs) detected after a negative versus false-positive screening among women participating in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Materials and Methods The Cancer Registry Regulation approved this retrospective study. Information about 423 445 women aged 49-71 years who underwent 789 481 full-field digital mammographic screening examinations during 2004-2012 was extracted from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Rates and odds ratios of IBC among women with a negative (the reference group) versus a false-positive screening were estimated by using logistic regression models adjusted for age at diagnosis and county of residence. Results A total of 1302 IBCs were diagnosed after 789 481 screening examinations, of which 7.0% (91 of 1302) were detected among women with a false-positive screening as the most recent breast imaging examination before detection. By using negative screening as the reference, adjusted odds ratios of IBCs were 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.6, 4.2) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.8, 4.4) for women with a false-positive screening without and with needle biopsy, respectively. Women with a previous negative screening had a significantly lower proportion of tumors that were 10 mm or less (14.3% [150 of 1049] vs 50.0% [seven of 14], respectively; P false-positive screening with benign biopsy. A retrospective review of the screening mammographic examinations identified 42.9% (39 of 91) of the false-positive cases to be the same lesion as the IBC. Conclusion By using a negative screening as the reference, a false-positive screening examination increased the risk of an IBC three-fold. The tumor characteristics of IBC after a negative screening were less favorable compared with those detected after a previous false-positive screening. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

  8. Psychoactive drugs and false memory: comparison of dextroamphetamine and delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol on false recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Michael E.; Gallo, David A.; de Wit, Harriet

    2014-01-01

    Rationale Several psychoactive drugs are known to influence episodic memory. However, these drugs’ effects on false memory, or the tendency to incorrectly remember nonstudied information, remain poorly understood. Objectives Here, we examined the effects of two commonly used psychoactive drugs, one with memory-enhancing properties (dextroamphetamine; AMP), and another with memory-impairing properties (Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol; THC), on false memory using the Deese/Roediger–McDermott (DRM) illusion. Methods Two parallel studies were conducted in which healthy volunteers received either AMP (0, 10, and 20 mg) or THC (0, 7.5, and 15 mg) in within-subjects, randomized, double-blind designs. Participants studied DRM word lists under the influence of the drugs, and their recognition memory for the studied words was tested 2 days later, under sober conditions. Results As expected, AMP increased memory of studied words relative to placebo, and THC reduced memory of studied words. Although neither drug significantly affected false memory relative to placebo, AMP increased false memory relative to THC. Across participants, both drugs’ effects on true memory were positively correlated with their effects on false memory. Conclusions Our results indicate that AMP and THC have opposing effects on true memory, and these effects appear to correspond to similar, albeit more subtle, effects on false memory. These findings are consistent with previous research using the DRM illusion and provide further evidence that psychoactive drugs can affect the encoding processes that ultimately result in the creation of false memories. PMID:21647577

  9. Psychoactive drugs and false memory: comparison of dextroamphetamine and δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Michael E; Gallo, David A; de Wit, Harriet

    2012-01-01

    Several psychoactive drugs are known to influence episodic memory. However, these drugs' effects on false memory, or the tendency to incorrectly remember nonstudied information, remain poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of two commonly used psychoactive drugs, one with memory-enhancing properties (dextroamphetamine; AMP), and another with memory-impairing properties (Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol; THC), on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) illusion. Two parallel studies were conducted in which healthy volunteers received either AMP (0, 10, and 20 mg) or THC (0, 7.5, and 15 mg) in within-subjects, randomized, double-blind designs. Participants studied DRM word lists under the influence of the drugs, and their recognition memory for the studied words was tested 2 days later, under sober conditions. As expected, AMP increased memory of studied words relative to placebo, and THC reduced memory of studied words. Although neither drug significantly affected false memory relative to placebo, AMP increased false memory relative to THC. Across participants, both drugs' effects on true memory were positively correlated with their effects on false memory. Our results indicate that AMP and THC have opposing effects on true memory, and these effects appear to correspond to similar, albeit more subtle, effects on false memory. These findings are consistent with previous research using the DRM illusion and provide further evidence that psychoactive drugs can affect the encoding processes that ultimately result in the creation of false memories.

  10. Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

    2016-10-01

    This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

  11. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  12. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  13. Attention Cueing and Activity Equally Reduce False Alarm Rate in Visual-Auditory Associative Learning through Improving Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikouei Mahani, Mohammad-Ali; Haghgoo, Hojjat Allah; Azizi, Solmaz; Nili Ahmadabadi, Majid

    2016-01-01

    In our daily life, we continually exploit already learned multisensory associations and form new ones when facing novel situations. Improving our associative learning results in higher cognitive capabilities. We experimentally and computationally studied the learning performance of healthy subjects in a visual-auditory sensory associative learning task across active learning, attention cueing learning, and passive learning modes. According to our results, the learning mode had no significant effect on learning association of congruent pairs. In addition, subjects' performance in learning congruent samples was not correlated with their vigilance score. Nevertheless, vigilance score was significantly correlated with the learning performance of the non-congruent pairs. Moreover, in the last block of the passive learning mode, subjects significantly made more mistakes in taking non-congruent pairs as associated and consciously reported lower confidence. These results indicate that attention and activity equally enhanced visual-auditory associative learning for non-congruent pairs, while false alarm rate in the passive learning mode did not decrease after the second block. We investigated the cause of higher false alarm rate in the passive learning mode by using a computational model, composed of a reinforcement learning module and a memory-decay module. The results suggest that the higher rate of memory decay is the source of making more mistakes and reporting lower confidence in non-congruent pairs in the passive learning mode.

  14. Growth rate for the expected value of a generalized random Fibonacci sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janvresse, Elise; De la Rue, Thierry; Rittaud, BenoIt

    2009-01-01

    We study the behaviour of generalized random Fibonacci sequences defined by the relation g n = |λg n-1 ± g n-2 |, where the ± sign is given by tossing an unbalanced coin, giving probability p to the + sign. We prove that the expected value of g n grows exponentially fast for any 0 (2 - λ)/4 when λ is of the form 2cos(π/k) for some fixed integer k ≥ 3. In both cases, we give an algebraic expression for the growth rate

  15. Impact of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombolotutu, A. D.; Djirimu, M. A.; Lutfi, M.; Anggadini, F.

    2018-05-01

    Research was conducted in several districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province in order to determine the effect of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate, and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty at the districts/city in the province. The analysis used is Panel Data Regression. The results show that first, life expectancy and gross domestic regional income have a negative and significant impact on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province. Second, the opened unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the province. Third, literacy rates show a positive effect and insignificant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province of Central Sulawesi. Fourth, these four variables simultaneously affect the poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi

  16. Effects of Instructions on False Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, John H.; And Others

    Four experiments were conducted to examine the effects of various processing instructions on the rate of false recognition. The continuous single-item procedure was used, and false recognitions of four types were examined: synonyms, antonyms, nonsemantic associates, and homonyms. The instructions encouraged subjects to think of associates, usages…

  17. False belief understanding in Cantonese-speaking children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, Twila; Wellman, Henry M; Cheung, Kar Man

    2004-11-01

    The present study investigates the performance of 96 Cantonese-speaking three- to five-year-old preschoolers on three false belief tasks - a deceptive object, a change of location, and an unexpected contents task encompassing a variety of task factors. Most importantly, the research examines the possibility that false belief performance depends on specific linguistic factors such as the type of verb used in the test question--an explicitly false vs. a neutral belief verb. Cantonese was chosen as particularly useful for examining this question because it explicitly codes belief status as either neutral (nam5) or false (ji5wai4), and because it offers additional linguistic and cultural contrasts to research conducted on false belief with children learning English and other Indo-European languages. As expected, a strong age effect was found, as well as a significant advantage for children who received the explicit false belief (ji5wai4) wording and for those who were asked to explain rather than predict the protagonist's actions. Interestingly, there was also a strong task difference with children performing better on the deceptive object task than on the other two false belief tasks. We argue that these results point both to universal trajectories in theory of mind development and to interesting, but localized, effects of language and culture on children's false belief understanding.

  18. Baryogenesis in false vacuum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamada, Yuta [KEK Theory Center, IPNS, KEK, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Yamada, Masatoshi [Kanazawa University, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kanazawa (Japan)

    2017-09-15

    The null result in the LHC may indicate that the standard model is not drastically modified up to very high scales, such as the GUT/string scale. Having this in the mind, we suggest a novel leptogenesis scenario realized in the false vacuum of the Higgs field. If the Higgs field develops a large vacuum expectation value in the early universe, a lepton number violating process is enhanced, which we use for baryogenesis. To demonstrate the scenario, several models are discussed. For example, we show that the observed baryon asymmetry is successfully generated in the standard model with higher-dimensional operators. (orig.)

  19. False memory in aging resulting from self-referential processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Nicole M; Gutchess, Angela H

    2013-11-01

    Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self.

  20. Expectancy Effects on Self-Reported Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms in Simulated Neurofeedback: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Grace J; Suhr, Julie A

    2018-03-31

    Expectancy is a psychological factor that can impact treatment effectiveness. Research on neurofeedback for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) suggests expectancy may contribute to treatment outcomes, though evidence for expectancy as an explanatory factor is sparse. This pilot study investigated the effects of expectancies on self-reported ADHD symptoms in simulated neurofeedback. Forty-six adults who were concerned that they had ADHD expected to receive active neurofeedback, but were randomly assigned to receive a placebo with false feedback indicating attentive (positive false feedback) or inattentive (negative false feedback) states. Effects of the expectancy manipulation were measured on an ADHD self-report scale. Large expectancy effects were found, such that individuals who received positive false feedback reported significant decreases in ADHD symptoms, whereas individuals who received negative false feedback reported significant increases in ADHD symptoms. Findings suggest that expectancy should be considered as an explanatory mechanism for ADHD symptom change in response to neurofeedback.

  1. Making up History: False Memories of Fake News Stories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle C. Polage

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that information that is repeated is more likely to be rated as true than information that has not been heard before. The current experiment examines whether familiarity with false news stories would increase rates of truthfulness and plausibility for these events. Further, the experiment tested whether false stories that were familiar would result in the creation of a false memory of having heard the story outside of the experiment. Participants were exposed to false new stories, each portrayed by the investigator as true news stories. After a five week delay, participants who had read the false experimental stories rated them as more truthful and more plausible than participants who had not been exposed to the stories. In addition, there was evidence of the creation of false memories for the source of the news story. Participants who had previously read about the stories were more likely to believe that they had heard the false stories from a source outside the experiment. These results suggest that repeating false claims will not only increase their believability but may also result in source monitoring errors.

  2. Expectancy, False Galvanic Skin Response Feedback, and Systematic Desensitization in the Modification of Phobic Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lick, John

    1975-01-01

    This study compared systematic desensitization and two pseudotherapy manipulations with and without false galvanic skin response feedback after every session suggesting improvement in the modification of intense snake and spider fear. The results indicated no consistent differences between the three treatment groups. (Author)

  3. Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Schäfer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

  4. Mammography Clinical Image Quality and the False Positive Rate in a Canadian Breast Cancer Screening Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Théberge, Isabelle; Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Dufresne, Michel-Pierre; Pelletier, Éric; Brisson, Jacques

    2018-05-01

    The study sought to determine if mammography quality is associated with the false positive (FP) rate in the Quebec breast cancer screening program in 2004 and 2005. Mammography quality of a random sample of screen-film mammograms was evaluated by an expert radiologist following the criteria of the Canadian Association of Radiologists. For each screening examination, scores ranging from 1 (poor quality) to 5 (excellent quality) were attributed for positioning, compression, contrast, exposure level, sharpness, and artifacts. A final overall quality score (lower or higher) was also given. Poisson regression models with robust estimation of variance and adjusted for potential confounding factors were used to assess associations of mammography quality with the FP rate. Among 1,209 women without cancer, there were 104 (8.6%) FPs. Lower overall mammography quality is associated with an increase in the FP rate (risk ratio [RR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-2.1; P = .07) but this increase was not statistically significant. Artifacts were associated with an increase in the FP rate (RR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.3; P = .01) whereas lower quality of exposure level was related to a reduction of the FP rate (RR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.1-1.0; P = .01). Lower quality scores for all other quality attributes were related to a nonstatistically significant increase in the FP rate of 10%-30%. Artifacts can have a substantial effect on the FP rate. The effect of overall mammography quality on the FP rate may also be substantial and needs to be clarified. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Reducing false asystole alarms in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekimpe, Remi; Heldt, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    High rates of false monitoring alarms in intensive care can desensitize staff and therefore pose a significant risk to patient safety. Like other critical arrhythmia alarms, asystole alarms require immediate attention by the care providers as a true asystole event can be acutely life threatening. Here, it is illustrated that most false asystole alarms can be attributed to poor signal quality, and we propose and evaluate an algorithm to identify data windows of poor signal quality and thereby help suppress false asystole alarms. The algorithm combines intuitive signal-quality features (degree of signal saturation and baseline wander) and information from other physiological signals that might be available. Algorithm training and testing was performed on the MIMIC II and 2015 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge databases, respectively. The algorithm achieved an alarm specificity of 81.0% and sensitivity of 95.4%, missing only one out of 22 true asystole alarms. On a separate neonatal data set, the algorithm was able to reject 89.7% (890 out of 992) of false asystole alarms while keeping all 22 true events. The results show that the false asystole alarm rate can be significantly reduced through basic signal quality evaluation.

  6. Characterization and correction of the false-discovery rates in resting state connectivity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, Hendrik; Aarabi, Ardalan; Perlman, Susan B.; Huppert, Theodore J.

    2017-05-01

    Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a noninvasive neuroimaging technique that uses low levels of red to near-infrared light to measure changes in cerebral blood oxygenation. Spontaneous (resting state) functional connectivity (sFC) has become a critical tool for cognitive neuroscience for understanding task-independent neural networks, revealing pertinent details differentiating healthy from disordered brain function, and discovering fluctuations in the synchronization of interacting individuals during hyperscanning paradigms. Two of the main challenges to sFC-NIRS analysis are (i) the slow temporal structure of both systemic physiology and the response of blood vessels, which introduces false spurious correlations, and (ii) motion-related artifacts that result from movement of the fNIRS sensors on the participants' head and can introduce non-normal and heavy-tailed noise structures. In this work, we systematically examine the false-discovery rates of several time- and frequency-domain metrics of functional connectivity for characterizing sFC-NIRS. Specifically, we detail the modifications to the statistical models of these methods needed to avoid high levels of false-discovery related to these two sources of noise in fNIRS. We compare these analysis procedures using both simulated and experimental resting-state fNIRS data. Our proposed robust correlation method has better performance in terms of being more reliable to the noise outliers due to the motion artifacts.

  7. Impact of age on the false negative rate of human papillomavirus DNA test in patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Kyu-Hee; Lee, Jae Yeon; Cho, Hye-Yon; Suh, Dong Hoon; No, Jae Hong; Kim, Yong-Beom

    2015-03-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) test was incorporated into the triage of lesser abnormal cervical cytologies: atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This study aimed to evaluate the impact of age on the efficacy of HPV testing in patients with lesser abnormal cervical cytologies. A total of 439 patients with ASCUS or LSIL were included. The association between age groups and the diagnostic performances of HPV test for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) was evaluated. Median age was 44 years (range, 17 to 75 years). ASCUS was more frequently observed in older patients while LSIL was more common in younger patients (P=0.002). CIN2+ was found in 11.3% (32/284) of the ASCUS patients and 12.9% (20/155) of patients with LSIL. Older patients with ASCUS showed lower HPV infection rates (P=0.025), but not LSIL (P=0.114). However, the prevalence of CIN2+ was similar between the age groups with ASCUS or LSIL. In patients with ASCUS, the false negative rate of HPV test for CIN2+ was 6.2%. The false negative rate of the HPV test became higher with increasing of the age after the age of 50 (P=0.034). Our findings suggest that false negative rate of the HPV test for CIN2+ in ASCUS patients older than 50 years might become higher with increasing of the age. Negative HPV results in patients of the age >50 years with ASCUS should be carefully interpreted.

  8. Are subjective memory problems related to suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bergen, Saskia; Jelicic, Marko; Merckelbach, Harald

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between subjective memory beliefs and suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance was studied in a community sample of young and middle-aged people (N = 142). We hypothesized that people with subjective memory problems would exhibit higher suggestibility and compliance levels and would be more susceptible to false recollections than those who are optimistic about their memory. In addition, we expected a discrepancy between subjective memory judgments and objective memory performance. We found that subjective memory judgments correlated significantly with compliance, with more negative memory judgments accompanying higher levels of compliance. Contrary to our expectation, subjective memory problems did not correlate with suggestibility or false recollections. Furthermore, participants were accurate in estimating their objective memory performance.

  9. Improved detection of common variants associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder using pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreassen, Ole A; Thompson, Wesley K; Schork, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    are currently lacking. Here, we use a genetic pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate (FDR) method on GWAS summary statistics data to identify new loci associated with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorders (BD), two highly heritable disorders with significant missing heritability...... associated with both SCZ and BD (conjunction FDR). Together, these findings show the feasibility of genetic pleiotropy-informed methods to improve gene discovery in SCZ and BD and indicate overlapping genetic mechanisms between these two disorders....

  10. Improving Universal Suicide Prevention Screening in Primary Care by Reducing False Negatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    craig.bryan@utah.edu 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Utah 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT...screening methods by reducing false negative rates; and (c) to systematically quantify false negative rates across various patient subgroups (e.g., gender ...c) to systematically quantify false negative rates across various patient subgroups (e.g., gender , race, age, deployment history, etc.) to identify

  11. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  12. Too Good to be False: Nonsignificant Results Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris H. J. Hartgerink

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to its probabilistic nature, Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST is subject to decision errors. The concern for false positives has overshadowed the concern for false negatives in the recent debates in psychology. This might be unwarranted, since reported statistically nonsignificant findings may just be ‘too good to be false’. We examined evidence for false negatives in nonsignificant results in three different ways. We adapted the Fisher test to detect the presence of at least one false negative in a set of statistically nonsignificant results. Simulations show that the adapted Fisher method generally is a powerful method to detect false negatives. We examined evidence for false negatives in the psychology literature in three applications of the adapted Fisher method. These applications indicate that (i the observed effect size distribution of nonsignificant effects exceeds the expected distribution assuming a null-effect, and approximately two out of three (66.7% psychology articles reporting nonsignificant results contain evidence for at least one false negative, (ii nonsignificant results on gender effects contain evidence of true nonzero effects, and (iii the statistically nonsignificant replications from the Reproducibility Project Psychology (RPP do not warrant strong conclusions about the absence or presence of true zero effects underlying these nonsignificant results. We conclude that false negatives deserve more attention in the current debate on statistical practices in psychology. Potentially neglecting effects due to a lack of statistical power can lead to a waste of research resources and stifle the scientific discovery process.

  13. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  14. Is the truth in the details? Extended narratives help distinguishing false "memories" from false "reports".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjödén, Björn; Granhag, Pär Anders; Ost, James; Roos Af Hjelmsäter, Emma

    2009-06-01

    The present study examined the effects of fantasy proneness on false "reports" and false "memories", of existent and non-existent footage of a public event. We predicted that highly fantasy prone individuals would be more likely to stand by their initial claim of having seen a film of the event than low fantasy prone participants when prompted for more details about their experiences. Eighty creative arts students and 80 other students were asked whether they had seen CCTV footage preceding the attack on Swedish foreign minister Anna Lindh up to, and including, non-existent footage of the actual moment of the attack. If affirmative, they were probed for extended narratives of what they claimed to have seen. Overall, 64% of participants provided a false "report" by answering yes to the initial question. Of these, 30% provided no explicit details of the attack, and a further 15% retracted their initial answer in their narratives. This left 19% of the sample who appeared to have false "memories" because they provided explicit details of the actual moment of the attack. Women scored higher than men and art students scored higher than other students on fantasy proneness, but there was no effect on levels of false reporting or false "memory". Memories were rated more vivid and clear for existent compared to non-existent aspects of the event. In sum, these data suggest a more complex relationship between memory distortions and fantasy proneness than previously observed.

  15. Healthy life expectancy and the correlates of self-rated health in Bangladesh in 1996 and 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareque, Md Ismail; Saito, Yasuhiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

    2015-03-31

    Life expectancy (LE) at birth has increased steadily in Bangladesh since its independence. When people live longer, quality of life becomes a central issue. This study examines whether healthy life expectancy (HLE) at ages 15, 25, 35, and 45 is keeping pace with LE at those ages between 1996 and 2002. It also seeks to investigate the correlates of self-rated health (SRH) in 1996 and 2002. We used data from the World Values Survey conducted in 1996 and 2002 among individuals 15 years and older. The Sullivan method was used to compute HLE. Socio-demographic differences and their association with different states of health were examined by chi-square and Pearson's correlation tests. Multiple linear regression models were fitted to examine the correlates of SRH. The results show that perceived health improved between 1996 and 2002. For males, statistically significant increases in the expected number of years lived in good SRH were found. Proportionally, in 2002, both males and females at ages 15, 25, 35 and 45 expected more life years in good health and fewer life years in fair and poor health than did their counterparts in 1996. Comparatively, males expected fewer life years spent in good health but a much larger proportion of expected life in good health than did females. Finally, in multivariate analyses, life satisfaction was the only factor found to be significantly and positively associated with SRH for males and females in both years, although in both years the association was much more pronounced for females than for males. This study documented changes in HLE during 1996-2002. Women outlive men, but they have a lower quality of life and are more likely to live a greater part of their remaining life in poor SRH. Life satisfaction as well as other significant factors associated with SRH should be promoted, with special attention given to women, to improve healthy life expectancy and the quality of life of the Bangladeshi people.

  16. False Position, Double False Position and Cramer's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boman, Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We state and prove the methods of False Position (Regula Falsa) and Double False Position (Regula Duorum Falsorum). The history of both is traced from ancient Egypt and China through the work of Fibonacci, ending with a connection between Double False Position and Cramer's Rule.

  17. Lexical association and false memory for words in two cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yuh-shiow; Chiang, Wen-Chi; Hung, Hsu-Ching

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between language experience and false memory produced by the DRM paradigm. The word lists used in Stadler, et al. (Memory & Cognition, 27, 494-500, 1999) were first translated into Chinese. False recall and false recognition for critical non-presented targets were then tested on a group of Chinese users. The average co-occurrence rate of the list word and the critical word was calculated based on two large Chinese corpuses. List-level analyses revealed that the correlation between the American and Taiwanese participants was significant only in false recognition. More importantly, the co-occurrence rate was significantly correlated with false recall and recognition of Taiwanese participants, and not of American participants. In addition, the backward association strength based on Nelson et al. (The University of South Florida word association, rhyme and word fragment norms, 1999) was significantly correlated with false recall of American participants and not of Taiwanese participants. Results are discussed in terms of the relationship between language experiences and lexical association in creating false memory for word lists.

  18. Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. G. van den Berg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

  19. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  20. False-positive results in mammographic screening for breast cancer in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofvind, Solveig; Ponti, Antonio; Patnick, Julietta

    2012-01-01

    To estimate the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening result in European mammographic screening programmes, and examine the rates and procedures of further assessment.......To estimate the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening result in European mammographic screening programmes, and examine the rates and procedures of further assessment....

  1. False Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Rhodes, Andrew; Wilson, Chris M

    2016-01-01

    There is widespread evidence that some firms use false advertising to overstate the value of their products. We consider a model in which a policymaker is able to punish such false claims. We characterize an equilibrium where false advertising actively influences rational buyers, and analyze the effects of policy under different welfare objectives. We establish precise conditions where policy optimally permits a positive level of false advertising, and show how these conditions vary intuitive...

  2. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J. [The University of Sydney, Medical Image Optimisation and Perception Group, Discipline of Medical Radiation Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Lidcombe, NSW (Australia)

    2016-10-15

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  3. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  4. Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

  5. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  6. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  7. Reduced effects of pictorial distinctiveness on false memory following dynamic visual noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew; Kember, Timothy; Dagnall, Neil

    2017-07-01

    High levels of false recognition for non-presented items typically occur following exposure to lists of associated words. These false recognition effects can be reduced by making the studied items more distinctive by the presentation of pictures during encoding. One explanation of this is that during recognition, participants expect or attempt to retrieve distinctive pictorial information in order to evaluate the study status of the test item. If this involves the retrieval and use of visual imagery, then interfering with imagery processing should reduce the effectiveness of pictorial information in false memory reduction. In the current experiment, visual-imagery processing was disrupted at retrieval by the use of dynamic visual noise (DVN). It was found that effects of DVN dissociated true from false memory. Memory for studied words was not influenced by the presence of an interfering noise field. However, false memory was increased and the effects of picture-induced distinctiveness was eliminated. DVN also increased false recollection and remember responses to unstudied items.

  8. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  9. Decreasing the false alarm rate of arrhythmias in intensive care using a machine learning approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerikäinen, L.M.; Vanschoren, J.; Rooijakkers, M.J.; Vullings, R.; Aarts, R.M.

    2015-01-01

    We present a novel algorithm for classifying true and false alarms of five life-threatening arrhythmias in intensive care. This algorithm was entered in the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2015 Reducing False Arrhythmia Alarms in the ICU. The algorithm performs a binary classification of

  10. False negative rate of syndesmotic injury in pronation-external rotation stage IV ankle fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Soon Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: To investigate false negative rate in the diagnosis of diastasis on initial static anteroposterior radiograph and reliability of intraoperative external rotational stress test for detection of concealed disruption of syndesmosis in pronation external rotation (PER stage IV (Lauge-Hansen ankle fractures. Materials and Methods: We prospectively studied 34 PER stage IV ankle fractures between September 2001 and September 2008. Twenty (59% patients show syndesmotic injury on initial anteroposterior radiographs. We performed an intraoperative external rotation stress test in other 14 patients with suspicious PER stage IV ankle fractures, which showed no defined syndesmotic injury on anteroposterior radiographs inspite of a medial malleolar fracture, an oblique fibular fracture above the syndesmosis and fracture of the posterior tubercle of the tibia. Results: All 14 fractures showed different degrees of tibiofibular clear space (TFCS and tibiofibular overlapping (TFO on the external rotation stress test radiograph compared to the initial plain anteroposterior radiograph. It is important to understand the fracture pattern characterstic of PER stage IV ankle fractures even though it appears normal on anteroposterior radiographs, it is to be confirmed for the concealed syndesmotic injury through a routine intraoperative external rotational stress radiograph.

  11. Development of False Memories in Bilingual Children and Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.; Gagnon, Nadine; Thouas, Lisa

    2008-01-01

    The effects of within- versus between-languages (English-French) study and test on rates of bilingual children's and adults' true and false memories were examined. Children aged 6 through 12 and university-aged adults participated in a standard Deese-Roediger-McDermott false memory task using free recall and recognition. Recall results showed…

  12. Differentiating true and false schematic memories in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Christina E; Dennis, Nancy A

    2018-02-06

    While schemas aid memory for schematically related information, the gist induced by the schema can also lead to high rates of false memories, especially in older adults. The neural mechanisms that support and differentiate true and false memories in aging are not well understood. The current study sought to clarify this, using a novel scene paradigm to investigate the role of schemas on true and false memories in older adults. Healthy older adults encoded schematic scenes (e.g., bathroom). At retrieval, participants were tested on their memory for both schematic and non-schematic targets and lures while fMRI data was collected. Results indicate that true memories were supported by the typical retrieval network, and activity in this network was greater for true than false memories. Schema specific retrieval was supported by mPFC, extending this common finding to aging. While no region differentiated false memories compared to correct rejections, results showed that individual differences in false memory rates were associated with variability in neural activity. The findings underscore the importance of elucidating the neural basis of cognition within older adults, as well as the specific contribution of individual differences to the neural basis of memory errors in aging. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  13. The Occurrence Rate of Hot Jupiters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampalli, Rayna; Catanzarite, Joseph; Batalha, Natalie M.

    2017-01-01

    As the first kind of exoplanet to be discovered, hot Jupiters have always been objects of interest. Despite being prevalent in radial velocity and ground-based surveys, they were found to be much rarer based on Kepler observations. These data show a pile-up at radii of 9-22 Rearth and orbital periods of 1-10 days. Computing accurate occurrence rates can lend insight into planet-formation and migration-theories. To get a more accurate look, the idea of reliability was introduced. Each hot Jupiter candidate was assigned a reliability based on its location in the galactic plane and likelihood of being a false positive. Numbers were updated if ground-based follow-up indicated a candidate was indeed a false positive. These reliabilities were introduced into an occurrence rate calculation and yielded about a 12% decrease in occurrence rate for each period bin examined and a 25% decrease across all the bins. To get a better idea of the cause behind the pileup, occurrence rates based on parent stellar metallicity were calculated. As expected from previous work, higher metallicity stars yield higher occurrence rates. Future work includes examining period distributions in both the high metallicity and low metallicity sample for a better understanding and confirmation of the pile-up effect.

  14. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  15. Acute effects of triazolam on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, M Z; Griffiths, R R

    2000-12-01

    Neuropsychological, neuroimaging, and electrophysiological techniques have been applied to the study of false recognition; however, psychopharmacological techniques have not been applied. Benzodiazepine sedative/anxiolytic drugs produce memory deficits similar to those observed in organic amnesia and may be useful tools for studying normal and abnormal memory mechanisms. The present double-blind, placebo-controlled repeated measures study examined the acute effects of orally administered triazolam (Halcion; 0.125 and 0.25 mg/70 kg), a benzodiazepine hypnotic, on performance in the Deese (1959)/Roediger-McDermott (1995) false recognition paradigm in 24 healthy volunteers. Paralleling previous demonstrations in amnesic patients, triazolam produced significant dose-related reductions in false recognition rates to nonstudied words associatively related to studied words, suggesting that false recognition relies on normal memory mechanisms impaired in benzodiazepine-induced amnesia. The results also suggested that relative to placebo, triazolam reduced participants' reliance on memory for item-specific versus list-common semantic information and reduced participants' use of remember versus know responses.

  16. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  17. False-vacuum decay in generalized extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Wang Yun; Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL; Chicago Univ., IL; Vadas, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    We study false-vacuum decay in the context of generalized extended inflationary theories, and compute the bubble nucleation rates for these theories in the limit of G N →0. We find that the time dependence of the nucleation rate can be exponentially strong through the time dependence of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field. This can have a pronounced effect on whether extended inflation can be succesfully implemented. (orig.)

  18. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  19. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  20. The spread of true and false news online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Aral, Sinan

    2018-03-09

    We investigated the differential diffusion of all of the verified true and false news stories distributed on Twitter from 2006 to 2017. The data comprise ~126,000 stories tweeted by ~3 million people more than 4.5 million times. We classified news as true or false using information from six independent fact-checking organizations that exhibited 95 to 98% agreement on the classifications. Falsehood diffused significantly farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth in all categories of information, and the effects were more pronounced for false political news than for false news about terrorism, natural disasters, science, urban legends, or financial information. We found that false news was more novel than true news, which suggests that people were more likely to share novel information. Whereas false stories inspired fear, disgust, and surprise in replies, true stories inspired anticipation, sadness, joy, and trust. Contrary to conventional wisdom, robots accelerated the spread of true and false news at the same rate, implying that false news spreads more than the truth because humans, not robots, are more likely to spread it. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  1. The role of decision criterion in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false recognition memory: False memory falls and rises as a function of restriction on criterion setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jou, Jerwen; Escamilla, Eric E; Arredondo, Mario L; Pena, Liann; Zuniga, Richard; Perez, Martin; Garcia, Clarissa

    2018-02-01

    How much of the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) false memory is attributable to decision criterion is so far a controversial issue. Previous studies typically used explicit warnings against accepting the critical lure to investigate this issue. The assumption is that if the false memory results from using a liberally biased criterion, it should be greatly reduced or eliminated by an explicit warning against accepting the critical lure. Results showed that warning was generally ineffective. We asked the question of whether subjects can substantially reduce false recognition without being warned when the test forces them to make a distinction between true and false memories. Using a two-alternative forced choice in which criterion plays a relatively smaller role, we showed that subjects could indeed greatly reduce the rate of false recognition. However, when the forced-choice restriction was removed from the two-item choice test, the rate of false recognition rebounded to that of the hit for studied list words, indicating the role of criterion in false recognition.

  2. A critical reappraisal of false negative sentinel lymph node biopsy in melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manca, G.; Mazzarri, S.; Boni, G.; Chiacchio, S.; Tredici, M.; Duce, V.; Tardelli, E.; Volterrani, D.; Mariani, G.; Romanini, A.; Rubello, D.

    2014-01-01

    Lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) have completely changed the clinical management of cutaneous melanoma. This procedure has been accepted worldwide as a recognized method for nodal staging. SLNB is able to accurately determine nodal basin status, providing the most useful prognostic information. However, SLNB is not a perfect diagnostic test. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of “actual” positive lymph nodes. The main purpose of this review is to address the technical issues that nuclear physicians, surgeons, and pathologists should carefully consider to improve the accuracy of SLNB by minimizing its false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging has demonstrated to be able to identify a greater number of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, a unique definition in the international guidelines is missing for the operational identification of SLNs, which may be partly responsible for this relatively high false-negative rate of SLNB. Therefore, it is recommended for the scientific community to agree on the radioactive counting rate threshold so that the surgeon can be better radioguided to detect all the lymph nodes which are most likely to harbor metastases. Another possible source of error may be linked to the examination of the harvested SLNs by conventional histopathological methods. A more careful and extensive SLN analysis (e.g. molecular analysis by RT-PCR) is able to find more positive nodes, so that the false-negative rate is reduced. Older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histologic ulceration, head-neck anatomical location of primary lesions are the clinical factors associated with false-negative SLNBs in melanoma patients. There is still much controversy about the clinical significance of a false-negative SLNB on the

  3. [Neuropsychological study of false memory in patients with amnesia mild cognitive impairment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Dan-dan; Cheng, Huai-dong; Yin, Chang-lin; Lü, Xin-yi; Wang, Kai

    2011-01-18

    To explore the profile of false memory in aMCI (amnesia mild cognitive impairment) and to elucidate the neuropsychological mechanism of false memory. False memory provoked by pictures and feeling-of-knowing (FOK) test in episodic memory (EM) were conducted in 25 aMCI patients at our hospital from October 2009 to May 2010. And 25 age and education level-matched healthy patients were recruited into the healthy control (HC) group. As compared with HC group, the rate of false memory was higher in the aMCI group. The rate of false memory in recall stage was 26% ± 7% and that of questionnaire stage 28% ± 12%. And the difference between two group was significant (t = 14.437, 7.597, P false recognition in the aMCI group (41% ± 10%) was higher than the HC group. And the difference was significant (t = 4.207, P false memory in recall and questionnaire stages were positively correlated with FOK-EM in aMCI group (r = 0.563, 0.705, P false memory provoked by pictures. The deficit of memory monitoring in aMCI may be the foundation of false memory.

  4. Detection of exudates in fundus imagery using a constant false-alarm rate (CFAR) detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Manish; Kapoor, Elina

    2014-05-01

    Diabetic retinopathy is the leading cause of blindness in adults in the United States. The presence of exudates in fundus imagery is the early sign of diabetic retinopathy so detection of these lesions is essential in preventing further ocular damage. In this paper we present a novel technique to automatically detect exudates in fundus imagery that is robust against spatial and temporal variations of background noise. The detection threshold is adjusted dynamically, based on the local noise statics around the pixel under test in order to maintain a pre-determined, constant false alarm rate (CFAR). The CFAR detector is often used to detect bright targets in radar imagery where the background clutter can vary considerably from scene to scene and with angle to the scene. Similarly, the CFAR detector addresses the challenge of detecting exudate lesions in RGB and multispectral fundus imagery where the background clutter often exhibits variations in brightness and texture. These variations present a challenge to common, global thresholding detection algorithms and other methods. Performance of the CFAR algorithm is tested against a publicly available, annotated, diabetic retinopathy database and preliminary testing suggests that performance of the CFAR detector proves to be superior to techniques such as Otsu thresholding.

  5. Pyrosequencing as a tool for the detection of Phytophthora species: error rate and risk of false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettraino, A M; Bonants, P; Tomassini, A; Bruni, N; Vannini, A

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of pyrosequencing for the description of Phytophthora communities in terms of taxa identification and risk of assignment for false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs). Pyrosequencing of Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) amplicons was used to describe the structure of a DNA mixture comprising eight Phytophthora spp. and Pythium vexans. Pyrosequencing resulted in 16 965 reads, detecting all species in the template DNA mixture. Reducing the ITS1 sequence identity threshold resulted in a decrease in numbers of unmatched reads but a concomitant increase in the numbers of false MOTUs. The total error rate was 0·63% and comprised mainly mismatches (0·25%) Pyrosequencing of ITS1 region is an efficient and accurate technique for the detection and identification of Phytophthora spp. in environmental samples. However, the risk of allocating false MOTUs, even when demonstrated to be low, may require additional validation with alternative detection methods. Phytophthora spp. are considered among the most destructive groups of invasive plant pathogens, affecting thousands of cultivated and wild plants worldwide. Simultaneous early detection of Phytophthora complexes in environmental samples offers an unique opportunity for the interception of known and unknown species along pathways of introduction, along with the identification of these organisms in invaded environments. © 2012 The Authors Letters in Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  6. Virtual Reality: Real Promises and False Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homan, Willem J.

    1994-01-01

    Examines virtual reality (VR), and discusses the dilemma of defining VR, the limitations of the current technology, and the implications of VR for education. Highlights include a VR experience; human factors and the interface; and altered reality versus VR. (Author/AEF)

  7. E-commerce Review System to Detect False Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolhar, Manjur

    2017-08-15

    E-commerce sites have been doing profitable business since their induction in high-speed and secured networks. Moreover, they continue to influence consumers through various methods. One of the most effective methods is the e-commerce review rating system, in which consumers provide review ratings for the products used. However, almost all e-commerce review rating systems are unable to provide cumulative review ratings. Furthermore, review ratings are influenced by positive and negative malicious feedback ratings, collectively called false reviews. In this paper, we proposed an e-commerce review system framework developed using the cumulative sum method to detect and remove malicious review ratings.

  8. 5 CFR 9701.323 - Eligibility for pay increase associated with a rate range adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... individual pay increase. An employee who meets or exceeds performance expectations (i.e., has a rating of... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligibility for pay increase associated...) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration Setting and...

  9. Pupil responses and pain ratings to heat stimuli: Reliability and effects of expectations and a conditioning pain stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenach, James C; Curry, Regina; Aschenbrenner, Carol A; Coghill, Robert C; Houle, Timothy T

    2017-03-01

    The locus coeruleus (LC) signals salience to sensory stimuli and these responses can modulate the experience of pain stimuli. The pupil dilation response (PDR) to noxious stimuli is thought to be a surrogate for LC responses, but PDR response to Peltier-controlled noxious heat stimuli, the most commonly used method in experimental pain research, has not been described. Healthy volunteers were presented with randomly presented heat stimuli of 5 sec duration and provided pain intensity ratings to each stimulus. Pupillometry was performed and a method developed to quantify the PDR relevant to these stimuli. The stimulus response, reliability, and effect of commonly used manipulations on pain experience were explored. A method of artifact removal and adjusting for lag from stimulus initiation to PDR response was developed, resulting in a close correlation between pain intensity rating and PDR across a large range of heat stimuli. A reliable assessment of PDR within an individual was achieved with fewer presentations as heat stimulus intensity increased. The correlation between pain rating and PDR was disrupted when cognitive load is increased by manipulating expectations or presenting a second pain stimulus. The PDR began later after skin heating than electrical stimuli and this is the first examination of the PDR using standard nociceptive testing and manipulations of expectations and competing noxious stimulation. A method is described applying PDR to standard heat nociceptive testing, demonstrating stimulus response, reliability, and disruption by cognitive manipulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  11. Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

    2012-03-01

    The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  12. Experimental Design for a Macrofoam-Swab Study Relating the Recovery Efficiency and False Negative Rate to Low Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates on Four Surface Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-05

    This report describes the experimental design for a laboratory study to quantify the recovery efficiencies and false negative rates of a validated, macrofoam-swab sampling method for low concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus (BG) spores on four surface materials (stainless steel, glass, vinyl tile, plastic light cover panel). Two analytical methods (culture and polymerase chain reaction) will be used. Only one previous study has investigated how the false negative rate depends on test factors. The surrogates BAS and BG have not been tested together in the same study previously. Hence, this study will provide for completing gaps in the available information on the performance of macrofoam-swab sampling at low concentrations.

  13. No effect of stress on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beato, María Soledad; Cadavid, Sara; Pulido, Ramón F; Pinho, María Salomé

    2013-02-01

    The present study aimed to analyze the effect of acute stress on false recognition in the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. In this paradigm, lists of words associated with a non-presented critical lure are studied and, in a subsequent memory test, critical lures are often falsely remembered. In two experiments, participants were randomly assigned to either the stress group (Trier Social Stress Test) or the no-stress control group. Because we sought to control the level-of-processing at encoding, in Experiment 1, participants created a visual mental image for each presented word (deep encoding). In Experiment 2, participants performed a shallow encoding (to respond whether each word contained the letter "o"). The results indicated that, in both experiments, as predicted, heart rate and STAI-S scores increased only in the stress group. However, false recognition did not differ across stress and no-stress groups. Results suggest that, although psychosocial stress was successfully induced, it does not enhance the vulnerability of individuals with acute stress to DRM false recognition, regardless of the level of processing.

  14. False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine–Based Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G.S.; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M.; Berns, Jeffrey S.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false–positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false–positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient’s true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Results Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false–positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%–8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false–positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%–30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%–2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values false–positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. PMID

  15. Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meinald T. Thielsch

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

  16. Decay rate of the false vacuum at high temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eboli, O.J.P.; Marques, G.C.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate, within the semiclassical approach, the high temperature behaviour of the decay rate (Γ) of the metastable vacuum in Field Theory. We exhibit some exactly soluble (1+1) and (3+1) dimensional examples and develop a formal expression for γ in the high temperature limit. (Author) [pt

  17. [Effects of false memories on the Concealed Information Test].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitsu, Wataru

    2012-10-01

    The effects of false memories on polygraph examinations with the Concealed Information Test (CIT) were investigated by using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, which allows participants to evoke false memories. Physiological responses to questions consisting of learned, lure, and unlearned items were measured and recorded. The results indicated that responses to lure questions showed critical responses to questions about learned items. These responses included repression of respiration, an increase in electrodermal activity, and a drop in heart rate. These results suggest that critical response patterns are generated in the peripheral nervous system by true and false memories.

  18. Manifold adaptation for constant false alarm rate ship detection in South African oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schwegmann, CP

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available prescreening method. It uses a scalar threshold value to determine how bright a pixel needs to be in order to be classified as a ship and thus inversely how many false alarms are permitted. This paper presents by a method of converting the scalar threshold...

  19. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  20. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  1. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Creating Memories for False Autobiographical Events in Childhood: A Systematic Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Bernice

    2016-01-01

    Summary Using a framework that distinguishes autobiographical belief, recollective experience, and confidence in memory, we review three major paradigms used to suggest false childhood events to adults: imagination inflation, false feedback and memory implantation. Imagination inflation and false feedback studies increase the belief that a suggested event occurred by a small amount such that events are still thought unlikely to have happened. In memory implantation studies, some recollective experience for the suggested events is induced on average in 47% of participants, but only in 15% are these experiences likely to be rated as full memories. We conclude that susceptibility to false memories of childhood events appears more limited than has been suggested. The data emphasise the complex judgements involved in distinguishing real from imaginary recollections and caution against accepting investigator‐based ratings as necessarily corresponding to participants' self‐reports. Recommendations are made for presenting the results of these studies in courtroom settings. © 2016 The Authors Applied Cognitive Psychology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. PMID:28163368

  3. False memories, but not false beliefs, affect implicit attitudes for food preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, David; Anderson, Rachel J; Dewhurst, Stephen A

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have found that false memories and false beliefs of childhood experiences can have attitudinal consequences. Previous studies have, however, focused exclusively on explicit attitude measures without exploring whether implicit attitudes are similarly affected. Using a false feedback/imagination inflation paradigm, false memories and beliefs of enjoying a certain food as a child were elicited in participants, and their effects were assessed using both explicit attitude measures (self-report questionnaires) and implicit measures (a Single-Target Implicit Association Test). Positive changes in explicit attitudes were observed both in participants with false memories and participants with false beliefs. In contrast, only participants with false memories exhibited more positive implicit attitudes. The findings are discussed in terms of theories of explicit and implicit attitudes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. False vacuum decay in Jordan-Brans-Dicke cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Wang, Yun; Weinberg, E.J.

    1989-12-01

    We examine the bubble nucleation rate in a first-order phase transition taking place in a background Jordan-Brans-Dicke cosmology. We compute the leading order terms in the nucleation rate when the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field is large (i.e., late times) by means of a Weyl rescaling of the fields in the theory. We find that despite the fact that the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field (hence the effective gravitational constant) has a time dependence in the false vacuum, at late times the nucleation rate is time independent. 21 refs

  5. Addressing False Positives in Early Reading Assessment Using Intervention Response Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlenney, Athena Lentini; Coyne, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    The current study examined a solution to high false positive reading risk classification rates in early kindergarten by investigating a method of identifying students with possible false positive risk classifications and returning them to general classroom instruction. Researchers assessed kindergarten students (N = 105) identified as at risk who…

  6. Improving sensitivity in proteome studies by analysis of false discovery rates for multiple search engines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew R; Siepen, Jennifer A; Hubbard, Simon J; Paton, Norman W

    2009-03-01

    LC-MS experiments can generate large quantities of data, for which a variety of database search engines are available to make peptide and protein identifications. Decoy databases are becoming widely used to place statistical confidence in result sets, allowing the false discovery rate (FDR) to be estimated. Different search engines produce different identification sets so employing more than one search engine could result in an increased number of peptides (and proteins) being identified, if an appropriate mechanism for combining data can be defined. We have developed a search engine independent score, based on FDR, which allows peptide identifications from different search engines to be combined, called the FDR Score. The results demonstrate that the observed FDR is significantly different when analysing the set of identifications made by all three search engines, by each pair of search engines or by a single search engine. Our algorithm assigns identifications to groups according to the set of search engines that have made the identification, and re-assigns the score (combined FDR Score). The combined FDR Score can differentiate between correct and incorrect peptide identifications with high accuracy, allowing on average 35% more peptide identifications to be made at a fixed FDR than using a single search engine.

  7. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  8. Decay rate of the false vacuum at high tempratures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eboli, O.J.P.; Marques, G.C.

    1984-01-01

    Within the semiclassical approach, the high temperaure behaviour of the decay rate of the metastable vacuum in Field Theory is investigated. It is shown that, contrarily to what has been proposed in the literature, the pre-exponential factor exhibits a nontrivial dependence on the temperature. Furthermore, this dependence is such that at very high temperatures it is as important as the exponential factor and consequently it spoils many conclusions drawn up to now on Cosmological Phase Transitions. (Author) [pt

  9. Experimental Effects of Acute Exercise on Prospective Memory and False Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, David; Loprinzi, Paul D

    2018-01-01

    Research demonstrates that acute exercise can enhance retrospective episodic memory performance. However, limited research has examined the effects of acute exercise on prospective memory, and no studies have examined the effects of exercise on false memory performance. This study examined the potential effects of acute exercise on prospective memory and false memory performance. A between-group randomized controlled trial was employed, with participants (college students; M age  = 20 years) randomized into an exercise group (15-minute acute bout of treadmill walking; N = 25) or a control group (15 minutes of sitting; N = 26). Prospective memory was assessed from two laboratory and two naturalistic assessments outside the lab. False memory was assessed using a word-list trial. There were no statistically significant differences in prospective memory based on group allocation (F Group×Time  = 1.17; P = 0.32; η 2  = 0.06). However, the control group recalled more false words and had a higher rate of false memory recognition (F Group×Time  = 3.15; P = 0.01; η 2  = 0.26). These findings indicate that acute moderate-intensity aerobic exercise is not associated with prospective memory performance but provides some suggestive evidence that acute exercise may reduce the rate of false memories.

  10. Intellectual factors in false memories of patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Bi; Chen, Chuansheng; Loftus, Elizabeth F; Dong, Qi; Lin, Chongde; Li, Jun

    2018-07-01

    The current study explored the intellectual factors in false memories of 139 patients with schizophrenia, using a recognition task and an IQ test. The full-scale IQ score of the participants ranged from 57 to 144 (M = 100, SD = 14). The full IQ score had a negative correlation with false recognition in patients with schizophrenia, and positive correlations with high-confidence true recognition and discrimination rates. Further analyses with the subtests' scores revealed that false recognition was negatively correlated with scores of performance IQ (and one of its subtests: picture arrangement), whereas true recognition was positively correlated with scores of verbal IQ (and two of its subtests: information and digit span). High-IQ patients had less false recognition (overall or high-confidence false recognition), more high-confidence true recognition, and higher discrimination abilities than those with low IQ. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the cognitive mechanism in false memory of patients with schizophrenia, and are of practical relevance to the evaluation of memory reliability in patients with different intellectual levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Sample Size Calculation for Controlling False Discovery Proportion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shulian Shang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The false discovery proportion (FDP, the proportion of incorrect rejections among all rejections, is a direct measure of abundance of false positive findings in multiple testing. Many methods have been proposed to control FDP, but they are too conservative to be useful for power analysis. Study designs for controlling the mean of FDP, which is false discovery rate, have been commonly used. However, there has been little attempt to design study with direct FDP control to achieve certain level of efficiency. We provide a sample size calculation method using the variance formula of the FDP under weak-dependence assumptions to achieve the desired overall power. The relationship between design parameters and sample size is explored. The adequacy of the procedure is assessed by simulation. We illustrate the method using estimated correlations from a prostate cancer dataset.

  13. Undermining belief in false memories leads to less efficient problem-solving behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqin; Otgaar, Henry; Howe, Mark L; Smeets, Tom; Merckelbach, Harald; Nahouli, Zacharia

    2017-08-01

    Memories of events for which the belief in the occurrence of those events is undermined, but recollection is retained, are called nonbelieved memories (NBMs). The present experiments examined the effects of NBMs on subsequent problem-solving behaviour. In Experiment 1, we challenged participants' beliefs in their memories and examined whether NBMs affected subsequent solution rates on insight-based problems. True and false memories were elicited using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Then participants' belief in true and false memories was challenged by telling them the item had not been presented. We found that when the challenge led to undermining belief in false memories, fewer problems were solved than when belief was not challenged. In Experiment 2, a similar procedure was used except that some participants solved the problems one week rather than immediately after the feedback. Again, our results showed that undermining belief in false memories resulted in lower problem solution rates. These findings suggest that for false memories, belief is an important agent in whether memories serve as effective primes for immediate and delayed problem-solving.

  14. Misleading Measurements: How Ohio School Ratings Foster False Comparisons. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePaoli, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Policy Matters Ohio looked at schools rated the highest over a two-year period in each of Ohio's eight largest urban districts. State, school, and district data were used to examine schools--district-run and charter--that were rated Excellent or higher for either the 2010-11 or the 2011-12 school year or both. The number of schools examined ranged…

  15. Intact suppression of increased false recognition in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Anthony P; Dodson, Chad S; Goff, Donald C; Schacter, Daniel L; Heckers, Stephan

    2002-09-01

    Recognition memory is impaired in patients with schizophrenia, as they rely largely on item familiarity, rather than conscious recollection, to make mnemonic decisions. False recognition of novel items (foils) is increased in schizophrenia and may relate to this deficit in conscious recollection. By studying pictures of the target word during encoding, healthy adults can suppress false recognition. This study examined the effect of pictorial encoding on subsequent recognition of repeated foils in patients with schizophrenia. The study included 40 patients with schizophrenia and 32 healthy comparison subjects. After incidental encoding of 60 words or pictures, subjects were tested for recognition of target items intermixed with 60 new foils. These new foils were subsequently repeated following either a two- or 24-word delay. Subjects were instructed to label these repeated foils as new and not to mistake them for old target words. Schizophrenic patients showed greater overall false recognition of repeated foils. The rate of false recognition of repeated foils was lower after picture encoding than after word encoding. Despite higher levels of false recognition of repeated new items, patients and comparison subjects demonstrated a similar degree of false recognition suppression after picture, as compared to word, encoding. Patients with schizophrenia displayed greater false recognition of repeated foils than comparison subjects, suggesting both a decrement of item- (or source-) specific recollection and a consequent reliance on familiarity in schizophrenia. Despite these deficits, presenting pictorial information at encoding allowed schizophrenic subjects to suppress false recognition to a similar degree as the comparison group, implying the intact use of a high-level cognitive strategy in this population.

  16. Does video-assisted mediastinoscopy offer lower false-negative rates for subcarinal lymph nodes compared with standard cervical mediastinoscopy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citak, Necati; Buyukkale, Songul; Kok, Abdulaziz; Celikten, Alper; Metin, Muzaffer; Sayar, Adnan; Gurses, Atilla

    2014-10-01

    Theoretically, video-assisted mediastinoscopy (VAM) offers improved staging of subcarinal lymph nodes (LNs) compared with standard cervical mediastinoscopy (SCM). Materials and Between 2006 and 2011, 553 patients (SCM, n = 293; VAM, n = 260) with non-small cell lung carcinoma who underwent mediastinoscopy were investigated. Mediastinoscopy was performed only in select patients based on computed tomography (CT) or positron emission tomography CT scans in our center. The mean number of LNs and stations sampled per case was significantly higher with VAM (n = 7.65 ± 1.68 and n = 4.22 ± 0.83) than with SCM (n = 6.91 ± 1.65 and 3.92 ± 86.4; p < 0.001). The percentage of patients sampled in station 7 was significantly higher with VAM (98.8%) than with SCM (93.8%; p = 0.002). Mediastinal LN metastasis was observed in 114 patients by mediastinoscopy. The remaining 439 patients (203 patients in VAM and 236 in SCM) underwent thoracotomy and systematic mediastinal lymphadenectomy (SML). SML showed mediastinal nodal disease in 23 patients (false-negative [FN] rate, 5.2%). The FN rate was higher with SCM (n = 14, 5.9%) than with VAM (n = 9, 4.4%), although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.490). Station 7 was the most predominant station for FN results (n = 15). The FN rate of station 7 was found to be higher with SCM (n = 9, 3.8%) than with the VAM group (n = 6, 2.9%; p = 0.623). FN were more common in mediastinoscopy of subcarinal LNs. VAM allows higher rates of sampling of mediastinal LN stations and station 7, although it did not improve staging of subcarinal LNs. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  17. False-negative results of breast core needle biopsies - retrospective analysis of 988 biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boba, M.; Koltun, U.; Bobek-Billewicz, B.; Eksner, B.; Olejnik, T.; Chmielik, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common malignant neoplasm and the most common cause of death among women. The core needle biopsy is becoming a universal practice in diagnosing breast lesions suspected of malignancy. Unfortunately, breast core needle biopsies also bear the risk of having false-negative results. Material/Methods: 988 core needle breast biopsies were performed at the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Gliwice Branch, between 01 March 2006 and 29 February 2008. Malignant lesions were diagnosed in 426/988 (43.12%) cases, atypical hyperplasia in 69/988 (6.98%), and benign lesions in 493/988 (49.90%) cases. Results: Twenty-two out of 988 biopsies (2.23%) were found to be false negative. Histopathological assessment of tissue specimens was repeated in these cases. In 14/22 (64%) cases, the previous diagnosis of a benign lesion was changed. In 8/22 (36%) cases, the diagnosis of a benign lesion was confirmed. False-negative rate was calculated at 2.2%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses resulting from a radiological mistake was estimated at 36%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses, resulting from histopathological assessment, was 64%. False-negative results caused by a radiological error comprised 1.5% of all histopathologically diagnosed cancers and atypias (sensitivity of 98.5%). There were no false-positive results in our material - the specificity of the method was 100%. Conclusions: Histopathological interpretation is a substantial cause of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy. Thus, in case of a radiological-histopathological divergence, histopathological analysis of biopsy specimens should be repeated. The main radiological causes of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy are as follows: sampling from an inappropriate site and histopathological non-homogeneity of cancer infiltration. (authors)

  18. Analysis of false positive and false negative cytological diagnosis of breast lesions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamal, Awtif A.; Mansoor, I.

    2001-01-01

    To study the reasons for interpretive errors in false negative and false positive diagnosis of breast carcinoma on fine needle aspiration cytology material. We reviewed only those cases in which cytohistological discrepancies were found, where the cytologic material was abnormal and to some extent misinterpreted or both. There was only one false negative case (false negative fraction 0.32%) proved histologically as ductal carcinoma and four false positive cases (false positive fraction 1.2%); 2 fibroadenoma; 1 fibrocystic disease; and 1 stromal fibrosis. Smears of the two false positive fibroadenoma cases showed very high cellularity, overcrowded clusters and frequent stripped nuclei. The fibrocystic case showed tight clusters of apocrine cells and sheets of loosely aggregated macrophages that were over interpreted. Smears of the false negative ductal carcinoma was hypocellular overall, and the cells showed minimal nuclear pleomorphism. Overcrowded clusters and hypercellular smears should be carefully assessed for uniformity of cells and detailed nuclear and cytomorphological features. If the full-blown malignant cytomorphological changes are not visible, a diagnosis of suspicious or inconclusive should be made and frozen section recommended before surgery. Hypocellularity and relatively nuclear monomorphism are the reasons for failure to diagnose malignant breast lesions. Careful attention should be paid to extreme nuclear monomorphism and absence of naked bipolar cells. A cytologically atypical or suspicious diagnosis together with positive radiological and clinical findings should suggest a diagnosis of malignancy. (author)

  19. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  20. Generating false negatives and false positives for As and Mo concentrations in groundwater due to well installation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallis, Ilka; Pichler, Thomas

    2018-08-01

    Groundwater monitoring relies on the acquisition of 'representative' groundwater samples, which should reflect the ambient water quality at a given location. However, drilling of a monitoring well for sample acquisition has the potential to perturb groundwater conditions to a point that may prove to be detrimental to the monitoring objective. Following installation of 20 monitoring wells in close geographic proximity in central Florida, opposing concentration trends for As and Mo were observed. In the first year after well installation As and Mo concentrations increased in some wells by a factor of 2, while in others As and Mo concentrations decreased by a factor of up to 100. Given this relatively short period of time, a natural change in groundwater composition of such magnitude is not expected, leaving well installation itself as the likely cause for the observed concentration changes. Hence, initial concentrations were identified as 'false negatives' if concentrations increased with time or as 'false positives' if concentrations decreased. False negatives were observed if concentrations were already high, i.e., the As or Mo were present at the time of drilling. False positives were observed if concentrations were relatively lower, i.e., As or Mo were present at low concentrations of approximately 1 to 2μg/L before drilling, but then released from the aquifer matrix as a result of drilling. Generally, As and Mo were present in the aquifer matrix in either pyrite or organic matter, both of which are susceptible to dissolution if redox conditions change due to the addition of oxygen. Thus, introduction of an oxidant into an anoxic aquifer through use of an oxygen saturated drilling fluid served as the conceptual model for the trends where concentrations decreased with time. Mixing between drilling fluid and groundwater (i.e., dilution) was used as the conceptual model for scenarios where increasing trends were observed. Conceptual models were successfully tested

  1. Decennial trends and inequalities in healthy life expectancy: The HUNT Study, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storeng, Siri H; Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar; Sund, Erik R

    2018-02-01

    Norway is experiencing a rising life expectancy combined with an increasing dependency ratio - the ratio of those outside over those within the working force. To provide data relevant for future health policy we wanted to study trends in total and healthy life expectancy in a Norwegian population over three decades (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), both overall and across gender and educational groups. Data were obtained from the HUNT Study, and the Norwegian Educational Database. We calculated total life expectancy and used the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancies based on self-rated health and self-reported longstanding limiting illness. The change in health expectancies was decomposed into mortality and disability effects. During three consecutive decades we found an increase in life expectancy for 30-year-olds (~7 years) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health (~6 years), but time without longstanding limiting illness increased less (1.5 years). Women could expect to live longer than men, but the extra life years for females were spent in poor self-rated health and with longstanding limiting illness. Differences in total life expectancy between educational groups decreased, whereas differences in expected lifetime in self-rated good health and lifetime without longstanding limiting illness increased. The increase in total life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing number of years spent in good self-rated health but more years with longstanding limiting illness. This suggests increasing health care needs for people with chronic diseases, given an increasing number of elderly. Socioeconomic health inequalities remain a challenge for increasing pensioning age.

  2. Computer-Aided Detection in Digital Mammography: False-Positive Marks and Their Reproducibility in Negative Mammograms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seung Ja; Moon, Woo Kyung; Cho, Nariya; Chang, Jung Min; Seong, Min Hyun

    2009-01-01

    Background: There are relatively few studies reporting the frequency of false-positive computer-aided detection (CAD) marks and their reproducibility in normal cases. Purpose: To evaluate retrospectively the false-positive mark rate of a CAD system and the reproducibility of false-positive marks in two sets of negative digital mammograms. Material and Methods: Two sets of negative digital mammograms were obtained in 360 women (mean age 57 years, range 30-76 years) with an approximate interval of 1 year (mean time 343.7 days), and a CAD system was applied. False-positive CAD marks and the reproducibility were determined. Results: Of the 360 patients, 252 (70.0%) and 240 (66.7%) patients had 1-7 CAD marks on the initial and second mammograms, respectively. The false-positive CAD mark rate was 1.5 (1.1 for masses and 0.4 for calcifications) and 1.4 (1.0 for masses and 0.4 for calcifications) per examination in the initial and second mammograms, respectively. The reproducibility of the false-positive CAD marks was 12.0% for both mass (81/680) and microcalcification (33/278) marks. Conclusion: False-positive CAD marks were seen in approximately 70% of normal cases. However, the reproducibility was very low. Radiologists must be familiar with the findings of false-positive CAD marks, since they are very common and can increase the recall rate in screening

  3. Aural, visual, and pictorial stimulus formats in false recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchamp, Heather M

    2002-12-01

    The present investigation is an initial simultaneous examination of the influence of three stimulus formats on false memories. Several pilot tests were conducted to develop new category associate stimulus lists. 73 women and 26 men (M age=21.1 yr.) were in one of three conditions: they either heard words, were shown words, or were shown pictures highly related to critical nonpresented items. As expected, recall of critical nonpresented stimuli was significantly greater for aural lists than for visually presented words and pictorial images. These findings demonstrate that the accuracy of memory is influenced by the format of the information encoded.

  4. Expectancies, socioeconomic status, and self-rated health: use of the simplified TOMCATS Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odéen, Magnus; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres; Leineweber, Constanze; Eriksen, Hege R; Ursin, Holger

    2013-06-01

    Coping has traditionally been measured with inventories containing many items meant to identify specific coping strategies. An alternative is to develop a shorter inventory that focusses on coping expectancies which may determine the extent to which an individual attempts to cope actively. This paper explores the usefulness and validity of a simplified seven-item questionnaire (Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, TOMCATS) for response outcome expectancies defined either as positive ("coping"), negative ("hopelessness"), or none ("helplessness"). The definitions are based on the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS; Ursin and Eriksen, Psychoneuroendocrinology, 29(5):567–92, 2004). The questionnaire was tested in two different samples. First, the questionnaire was compared with a traditional test of coping and then tested for validity in relation to socioeconomic differences in self-reported health. The first study was a comparison of the brief TOMCATS with a short version of the Utrecht Coping List (UCL; Eriksen et al., Scand J Psychol, 38(3):175–82, 1997). Both questionnaires were tested in a population of 1,704 Norwegian municipality workers. The second study was a cross-sectional analysis of TOMCATS, subjective and objective socioeconomic status, and health in a representative sample of the Swedish working population in 2003–2005 (N = 11,441). In the first study, the coping item in the TOMCATS questionnaire showed an expected significant positive correlation with the UCL factors of instrumental mastery-oriented coping and negative correlations with passive and depressive scores. There were also the expected correlations for the helplessness and hopelessness scores, but there was no clear distinction between helplessness and hopelessness in the way they correlated with the UCL. In the second study, the coping item in TOMCATS and the three-item helplessness scores showed clear and monotonous gradients over

  5. Inequalities in US Life Expectancy by Area Unemployment Level, 1990–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gopal K.; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the association between unemployment and life expectancy in the United States during 1990–2010. Census-based unemployment rates were linked to US county-level mortality data. Life expectancies were calculated by age, sex, race, and unemployment level during 1990–2010. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was consistently lower in areas with higher unemployment rates. In 2006–2010, those in areas with high unemployment rates (≥9%) had a life expectancy of 76.9 years, compared with 80.7 years for those in areas with low unemployment rates (unemployment and life expectancy was stronger for men than for women. Life expectancy ranged from 69.9 years among black men in high unemployment areas to 90.0 years among Asian/Pacific Islander women in low unemployment areas. Disparities persisted over time. In 1990–1992, life expectancy was 4.7 years shorter in high unemployment than in low unemployment areas. In 2006–2010, the life expectancy difference between the lowest and highest unemployment areas decreased to 3.8 years. Heart disease, cancer, homicide, unintentional injuries, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and liver cirrhosis contributed most to the lower life expectancy in high unemployment areas. High unemployment areas recorded larger gains in life expectancy than low unemployment areas, contributing to the narrowing gap during 1990–2010. PMID:27073716

  6. Underpowered samples, false negatives, and unconscious learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadillo, Miguel A; Konstantinidis, Emmanouil; Shanks, David R

    2016-02-01

    The scientific community has witnessed growing concern about the high rate of false positives and unreliable results within the psychological literature, but the harmful impact of false negatives has been largely ignored. False negatives are particularly concerning in research areas where demonstrating the absence of an effect is crucial, such as studies of unconscious or implicit processing. Research on implicit processes seeks evidence of above-chance performance on some implicit behavioral measure at the same time as chance-level performance (that is, a null result) on an explicit measure of awareness. A systematic review of 73 studies of contextual cuing, a popular implicit learning paradigm, involving 181 statistical analyses of awareness tests, reveals how underpowered studies can lead to failure to reject a false null hypothesis. Among the studies that reported sufficient information, the meta-analytic effect size across awareness tests was d z = 0.31 (95 % CI 0.24-0.37), showing that participants' learning in these experiments was conscious. The unusually large number of positive results in this literature cannot be explained by selective publication. Instead, our analyses demonstrate that these tests are typically insensitive and underpowered to detect medium to small, but true, effects in awareness tests. These findings challenge a widespread and theoretically important claim about the extent of unconscious human cognition.

  7. Students’ Expectations and Experiences of Meaningful Simulation-Based Medical Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuulikki Keskitalo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate students’ expectations and experiences of meaningful learning in simulation-based learning environments. We set the following research question: How do students’ experiences of meaningful simulation-based learning correspond to their expectations? The students’ (n = 87; male 51, female 36 pre- and post-questionnaires were analyzed using statistical methods. The results indicated that students’ expectations and experiences of meaningful learning were positive, and for most statements, there were statistically significant differences between the mean pre-questionnaire rating and the mean post-questionnaire rating, thereby indicating that students’ actual experiences of simulation-based learning were more positive than their expectations. Thus, students’ experiences exceeded their expectations.

  8. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  9. Study of false positives in 5-ALA induced photodynamic diagnosis of bladder carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draga, Ronald O. P.; Grimbergen, Matthijs C. M.; Kok, Esther T.; Jonges, Trudy G. N.; Bosch, J. L. H. R.

    2009-02-01

    Photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) is a technique that enhances the detection of tumors during cystoscopy using a photosensitizer which accumulates primarily in cancerous cells and will fluoresce when illuminated by violetblue light. A disadvantage of PDD is the relatively low specificity. In this retrospective study we aimed to identify predictors for false positive findings in PDD. Factors such as gender, age, recent transurethral resection of bladder tumors (TURBT), previous intravesical therapy (IVT) and urinary tract infections (UTIs) were examined for association with the false positive rates in a multivariate analysis. Data of 366 procedures and 200 patients were collected. Patients were instilled with 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) intravesically and 1253 biopsies were taken from tumors and suspicious lesions. Female gender and TURBT are independent predictors of false positives in PDD. However, previous intravesical therapy with Bacille Calmette-Guérin is also an important predictor of false positives. The false positive rate decreases during the first 9-12 weeks after the latest TURBT and the latest intravesical chemotherapy. Although shortly after IVT and TURBT false positives increase, PDD improves the diagnostic sensitivity and results in more adequate treatment strategies in a significant number of patients.

  10. Sample size calculation while controlling false discovery rate for differential expression analysis with RNA-sequencing experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Ran; Liu, Peng

    2016-03-31

    RNA-Sequencing (RNA-seq) experiments have been popularly applied to transcriptome studies in recent years. Such experiments are still relatively costly. As a result, RNA-seq experiments often employ a small number of replicates. Power analysis and sample size calculation are challenging in the context of differential expression analysis with RNA-seq data. One challenge is that there are no closed-form formulae to calculate power for the popularly applied tests for differential expression analysis. In addition, false discovery rate (FDR), instead of family-wise type I error rate, is controlled for the multiple testing error in RNA-seq data analysis. So far, there are very few proposals on sample size calculation for RNA-seq experiments. In this paper, we propose a procedure for sample size calculation while controlling FDR for RNA-seq experimental design. Our procedure is based on the weighted linear model analysis facilitated by the voom method which has been shown to have competitive performance in terms of power and FDR control for RNA-seq differential expression analysis. We derive a method that approximates the average power across the differentially expressed genes, and then calculate the sample size to achieve a desired average power while controlling FDR. Simulation results demonstrate that the actual power of several popularly applied tests for differential expression is achieved and is close to the desired power for RNA-seq data with sample size calculated based on our method. Our proposed method provides an efficient algorithm to calculate sample size while controlling FDR for RNA-seq experimental design. We also provide an R package ssizeRNA that implements our proposed method and can be downloaded from the Comprehensive R Archive Network ( http://cran.r-project.org ).

  11. Assessment of Metabolome Annotation Quality: A Method for Evaluating the False Discovery Rate of Elemental Composition Searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Fumio; Shinbo, Yoko; Oikawa, Akira; Hirai, Masami Yokota; Fiehn, Oliver; Kanaya, Shigehiko; Saito, Kazuki

    2009-01-01

    Background In metabolomics researches using mass spectrometry (MS), systematic searching of high-resolution mass data against compound databases is often the first step of metabolite annotation to determine elemental compositions possessing similar theoretical mass numbers. However, incorrect hits derived from errors in mass analyses will be included in the results of elemental composition searches. To assess the quality of peak annotation information, a novel methodology for false discovery rates (FDR) evaluation is presented in this study. Based on the FDR analyses, several aspects of an elemental composition search, including setting a threshold, estimating FDR, and the types of elemental composition databases most reliable for searching are discussed. Methodology/Principal Findings The FDR can be determined from one measured value (i.e., the hit rate for search queries) and four parameters determined by Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that relatively high FDR values (30–50%) were obtained when searching time-of-flight (TOF)/MS data using the KNApSAcK and KEGG databases. In addition, searches against large all-in-one databases (e.g., PubChem) always produced unacceptable results (FDR >70%). The estimated FDRs suggest that the quality of search results can be improved not only by performing more accurate mass analysis but also by modifying the properties of the compound database. A theoretical analysis indicates that FDR could be improved by using compound database with smaller but higher completeness entries. Conclusions/Significance High accuracy mass analysis, such as Fourier transform (FT)-MS, is needed for reliable annotation (FDR metabolome data. PMID:19847304

  12. Inequalities in US Life Expectancy by Area Unemployment Level, 1990–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal K. Singh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the association between unemployment and life expectancy in the United States during 1990–2010. Census-based unemployment rates were linked to US county-level mortality data. Life expectancies were calculated by age, sex, race, and unemployment level during 1990–2010. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was consistently lower in areas with higher unemployment rates. In 2006–2010, those in areas with high unemployment rates (≥9% had a life expectancy of 76.9 years, compared with 80.7 years for those in areas with low unemployment rates (<3%. The association between unemployment and life expectancy was stronger for men than for women. Life expectancy ranged from 69.9 years among black men in high unemployment areas to 90.0 years among Asian/Pacific Islander women in low unemployment areas. Disparities persisted over time. In 1990–1992, life expectancy was 4.7 years shorter in high unemployment than in low unemployment areas. In 2006–2010, the life expectancy difference between the lowest and highest unemployment areas decreased to 3.8 years. Heart disease, cancer, homicide, unintentional injuries, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and liver cirrhosis contributed most to the lower life expectancy in high unemployment areas. High unemployment areas recorded larger gains in life expectancy than low unemployment areas, contributing to the narrowing gap during 1990–2010.

  13. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women......Background: The population of Greenland comprises almost 31 000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Methods: Partial...... life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from...

  14. False-negative results of breast core needle biopsies – retrospective analysis of 988 biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boba, Marek; Kołtun, Urszula; Bobek-Billewicz, Barbara; Chmielik, Ewa; Eksner, Bartosz; Olejnik, Tomasz

    2011-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common malignant neoplasm and the most common cause of death among women. The core needle biopsy is becoming a universal practice in diagnosing breast lesions suspected of malignancy. Unfortunately, breast core needle biopsies also bear the risk of having false-negative results. 988 core needle breast biopsies were performed at the Maria Skłodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Gliwice Branch, between 01 March 2006 and 29 February 2008. Malignant lesions were diagnosed in 426/988 (43.12%) cases, atypical hyperplasia in 69/988 (6.98%), and benign lesions in 493/988 (49.90%) cases. Twenty-two out of 988 biopsies (2.23%) were found to be false negative. Histopathological assessment of tissue specimens was repeated in these cases. In 14/22 (64%) cases, the previous diagnosis of a benign lesion was changed. In 8/22 (36%) cases, the diagnosis of a benign lesion was confirmed. False-negative rate was calculated at 2.2%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses resulting from a radiological mistake was estimated at 36%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses, resulting from histopathological assessment, was 64%. False-negative results caused by a radiological error comprised 1.5% of all histopathologically diagnosed cancers and atypias (sensitivity of 98.5%). There were no false-positive results in our material - the specificity of the method was 100%. Histopathological interpretation is a substantial cause of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy. Thus, in case of a radiological-histopathological divergence, histopathological analysis of biopsy specimens should be repeated. The main radiological causes of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy are as follows: sampling from an inappropriate site and histopathological non-homogeneity of cancer infiltration

  15. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  16. Veridical and False Pictorial Memory in Individuals with and without Mental Retardation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Michael T.; Toglia, Michael P.; Wakeford, Yvonne; Jakway, Allison; Sullivan, Kate; Hasel, Lisa

    2008-01-01

    Veridical and false pictorial recognition were assessed in individuals with mental retardation; groups were matched for MA and CA. Pictures were viewed in either a generative or static format at acquisition. The individuals with mental retardation and those in the MA-matched group had higher rates of false memories for critical items and lower hit…

  17. Can an agent’s false belief be corrected by an appropriate communication? Psychological reasoning in 18-month-old infants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hyun-joo; Onishi, Kristine H.; Baillargeon, Renée; Fisher, Cynthia

    2008-01-01

    Do 18-month-olds understand that an agent’s false belief can be corrected by an appropriate, though not an inappropriate, communication? In Experiment 1, infants watched a series of events involving two agents, a ball, and two containers: a box and a cup. To start, agent1 played with the ball and then hid it in the box, while agent2 looked on. Next, in agent1’s absence, agent2 moved the ball from the box to the cup. When agent1 returned, agent2 told her “The ball is in the cup!” (informative-intervention condition) or “I like the cup!” (uninformative-intervention condition). During test, agent1 reached for either the box (box event) or the cup (cup event). In the informative-intervention condition, infants who saw the box event looked reliably longer than those who saw the cup event; in the uninformative-intervention condition, the reverse pattern was found. These results suggest that infants expected agent1’s false belief about the ball’s location to be corrected when she was told “The ball is in the cup!”, but not “I like the cup!”. In Experiment 2, agent2 simply pointed to the ball’s new location, and infants again expected agent1’s false belief to be corrected. These and control results provide additional evidence that infants in the second year of life can attribute false beliefs to agents. In addition, the results suggest that by 18 months of age infants expect agents’ false beliefs to be corrected by relevant communications involving words or gestures. PMID:18976745

  18. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    experiments and analysis of population time series and we explain why published valuesmay have overestimated the rates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgentthan reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on theirmarine ecosystems...

  19. Locality-sensitive Hashing without False Negatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pagh, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We consider a new construction of locality-sensitive hash functions for Hamming space that is covering in the sense that is it guaranteed to produce a collision for every pair of vectors within a given radius r. The construction is efficient in the sense that the expected number of hash collisions......(n)/k, where n is the number of points in the data set and k ∊ N, and differs from it by at most a factor ln(4) in the exponent for general values of cr. As a consequence, LSH-based similarity search in Hamming space can avoid the problem of false negatives at little or no cost in efficiency. Read More: http...... between vectors at distance cr, for a given c > 1, comes close to that of the best possible data independent LSH without the covering guarantee, namely, the seminal LSH construction of Indyk and Motwani (FOCS ′98). The efficiency of the new construction essentially matches their bound if cr = log...

  20. Understanding the contribution of suicide to life expectancy in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggie Noah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Korea has the highest rate and highest rate of increase in suicide among developed countries. The suicide epidemic in Korea is an anomaly, and suicide rates are high for both men and women, with no signs of decreasing. Yet we do not know the extent to which suicide has reduced life expectancy in Korea. Objective: We investigated whether and to what extent the rapid increase in suicide has contributed to changes in Korean life expectancy, a key indicator of population health. Methods: We used a recently developed decomposition method that separates the contribution of suicide's effect on change in life expectancy into two parts: that due to change in the overall suicide incidence rate and that due to change in the mean age of suicide victims. Results: From 1995 to 2010, life expectancy increased by 6.5 years in Korea, with change in most causes of death contributing to its growth. We nonetheless find, as expected, that the rise in suicides reduced the increase in life expectancy from 1995 to 2010, so life expectancy in Korea is about 0.21 years lower than it would have been without the increase in suicides. Moreover, had the age of suicide victims remained stable, we project that Korea's life expectancy would be fully 0.70 years lower than it is. Conclusions: Although the growth in suicide was the largest single factor slowing the rise in Korean life expectancy, the effect would have been even larger had the age of suicide victims not increased.

  1. Filing false vice reports: Distinguishing true from false allegations of rape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zutter, A.; Horselenberg, R.; van Koppen, P.J.

    2017-01-01

    False allegations constitute a problem since they may cause harm. To study the difference between true and false allegations we used a quasi-experimental approach. In the control condition likely true allegations were retrieved from criminal files. The victims, all female, were between the ages of

  2. False recognition of facial expressions of emotion: causes and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Dols, José-Miguel; Carrera, Pilar; Barchard, Kimberly A; Gacitua, Marta

    2008-08-01

    This article examines the importance of semantic processes in the recognition of emotional expressions, through a series of three studies on false recognition. The first study found a high frequency of false recognition of prototypical expressions of emotion when participants viewed slides and video clips of nonprototypical fearful and happy expressions. The second study tested whether semantic processes caused false recognition. The authors found that participants made significantly higher error rates when asked to detect expressions that corresponded to semantic labels than when asked to detect visual stimuli. Finally, given that previous research reported that false memories are less prevalent in younger children, the third study tested whether false recognition of prototypical expressions increased with age. The authors found that 67% of eight- to nine-year-old children reported nonpresent prototypical expressions of fear in a fearful context, but only 40% of 6- to 7-year-old children did so. Taken together, these three studies demonstrate the importance of semantic processes in the detection and categorization of prototypical emotional expressions.

  3. Specificity and false positive rates of the Test of Memory Malingering, Rey 15-item Test, and Rey Word Recognition Test among forensic inpatients with intellectual disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Christopher M; Glassmire, David M; Zanolini, Shanna Jordan; Wolf, Amanda

    2014-10-01

    This study evaluated the specificity and false positive (FP) rates of the Rey 15-Item Test (FIT), Word Recognition Test (WRT), and Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) in a sample of 21 forensic inpatients with mild intellectual disability (ID). The FIT demonstrated an FP rate of 23.8% with the standard quantitative cutoff score. Certain qualitative error types on the FIT showed promise and had low FP rates. The WRT obtained an FP rate of 0.0% with previously reported cutoff scores. Finally, the TOMM demonstrated low FP rates of 4.8% and 0.0% on Trial 2 and the Retention Trial, respectively, when applying the standard cutoff score. FP rates are reported for a range of cutoff scores and compared with published research on individuals diagnosed with ID. Results indicated that although the quantitative variables on the FIT had unacceptably high FP rates, the TOMM and WRT had low FP rates, increasing the confidence clinicians can place in scores reflecting poor effort on these measures during ID evaluations. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems....

  5. Semantic processes leading to true and false memory formation in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz-Alonso, Pedro M; Ghetti, Simona; Ramsay, Ian; Solomon, Marjorie; Yoon, Jong; Carter, Cameron S; Ragland, J Daniel

    2013-07-01

    Encoding semantic relationships between items on word lists (semantic processing) enhances true memories, but also increases memory distortions. Episodic memory impairments in schizophrenia (SZ) are strongly driven by failures to process semantic relations, but the exact nature of these relational semantic processing deficits is not well understood. Here, we used a false memory paradigm to investigate the impact of implicit and explicit semantic processing manipulations on episodic memory in SZ. Thirty SZ and 30 demographically matched healthy controls (HC) studied Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) lists of semantically associated words. Half of the lists had strong implicit semantic associations and the remainder had low strength associations. Similarly, half of the lists were presented under "standard" instructions and the other half under explicit "relational processing" instructions. After study, participants performed recall and old/new recognition tests composed of targets, critical lures, and unrelated lures. HC exhibited higher true memories and better discriminability between true and false memory compared to SZ. High, versus low, associative strength increased false memory rates in both groups. However, explicit "relational processing" instructions positively improved true memory rates only in HC. Finally, true and false memory rates were associated with severity of disorganized and negative symptoms in SZ. These results suggest that reduced processing of semantic relationships during encoding in SZ may stem from an inability to implement explicit relational processing strategies rather than a fundamental deficit in the implicit activation and retrieval of word meanings from patients' semantic lexicon. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. False memories for aggressive acts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laney, Cara; Takarangi, Melanie K T

    2013-06-01

    Can people develop false memories for committing aggressive acts? How does this process compare to developing false memories for victimhood? In the current research we used a simple false feedback procedure to implant false memories for committing aggressive acts (causing a black eye or spreading malicious gossip) or for victimhood (receiving a black eye). We then compared these false memories to other subjects' true memories for equivalent events. False aggressive memories were all too easy to implant, particularly in the minds of individuals with a proclivity towards aggression. Once implanted, the false memories were indistinguishable from true memories for the same events, on several dimensions, including emotional content. Implications for aggression-related memory more generally as well as false confessions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  8. Analysis of false results in a series of 835 fine needle aspirates of breast lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, S L; Ramzy, I

    1995-01-01

    To analyze cases of false diagnoses from a large series to help increase the accuracy of fine needle aspiration of palpable breast lesions. The results of FNA of 835 palpable breast lesions were analyzed to determine the reasons for false positive, false negative and false suspicious diagnoses. Of the 835 aspirates, 174 were reported as positive, 549 as negative and 66 as suspicious or atypical but not diagnostic of malignancy. Forty-six cases were considered unsatisfactory. Tissue was available for comparison in 286 cases. The cytologic diagnoses in these cases were reported as follows: positive, 125 (43.7%); suspicious, 33 (11.5%); atypical, 18 (6.2%); negative, 92 (32%); and unsatisfactory, 18 (6.2%). There was one false positive diagnosis, yielding a false positive rate of 0.8%. This lesion was a case of fibrocystic change with hyperplasia, focal fat necrosis and reparative atypia. There were 14 false negative cases, resulting in a false negative rate of 13.2%. Nearly all these cases were sampling errors and included infiltrating ductal carcinomas (9), ductal carcinomas in situ (2), infiltrating lobular carcinomas (2) and tubular carcinoma (1). Most of the suspicious and atypical lesions proved to be carcinomas (35/50). The remainder were fibroadenomas (6), fibrocystic change (4), gynecomastia (2), adenosis (2) and granulomatous mastitis (1). A positive diagnosis of malignancy by FNA is reliable in establishing the diagnosis and planning the treatment of breast cancer. The false-positive rate is very low, with only a single case reported in 835 aspirates. Most false negatives are due to sampling and not to interpretive difficulties. The category "suspicious but not diagnostic of malignancy" serves a useful purpose in management of patients with breast lumps.

  9. False positive and false negative FDG-PET scans in various thoracic diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Jung Min; Lee, Hyun Ju; Goo, Jin Mo; Lee, Ho Young; Lee, Jong Jin; Chung, June Key; Im, Jung Gi

    2006-01-01

    Fluorodeoxygucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) is being used more and more to differentiate benign form malignant focal lesions and it has been shown to be more efficacious than conventional chest computed tomography (CT). However, FDG is not a cancer-specific agent, and false positive findings in benign diseases have been reported. Infectious diseases (mycobacterial, fungal, bacterial infection), sarcoidosis, radiation pneumonitis and post-operative surgical conditions have shown intense uptake on PET scan. On the other hand, tumors with low glycolytic activity such as adenomas, bronchioloalveolar carcinomas, carcinoid tumors, low grade lymphomas and small sized tumors have revealed false negative findings on PET scan, Furthermore, in diseases located near the physiologic uptake sites (heart, bladder, kidney, and liver), FDG-PET should be complemented with other imaging modalities to confirm results and to minimize false negative findings. Familiarity with these false positive and negative findings will help radiologists interpret PET scans more accurately and also will help to determine the significance of the findings. In this review, we illustrate false positive and negative findings of PET scan in a variety of diseases

  10. Integrated Proteomic Pipeline Using Multiple Search Engines for a Proteogenomic Study with a Controlled Protein False Discovery Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gun Wook; Hwang, Heeyoun; Kim, Kwang Hoe; Lee, Ju Yeon; Lee, Hyun Kyoung; Park, Ji Yeong; Ji, Eun Sun; Park, Sung-Kyu Robin; Yates, John R; Kwon, Kyung-Hoon; Park, Young Mok; Lee, Hyoung-Joo; Paik, Young-Ki; Kim, Jin Young; Yoo, Jong Shin

    2016-11-04

    In the Chromosome-Centric Human Proteome Project (C-HPP), false-positive identification by peptide spectrum matches (PSMs) after database searches is a major issue for proteogenomic studies using liquid-chromatography and mass-spectrometry-based large proteomic profiling. Here we developed a simple strategy for protein identification, with a controlled false discovery rate (FDR) at the protein level, using an integrated proteomic pipeline (IPP) that consists of four engrailed steps as follows. First, using three different search engines, SEQUEST, MASCOT, and MS-GF+, individual proteomic searches were performed against the neXtProt database. Second, the search results from the PSMs were combined using statistical evaluation tools including DTASelect and Percolator. Third, the peptide search scores were converted into E-scores normalized using an in-house program. Last, ProteinInferencer was used to filter the proteins containing two or more peptides with a controlled FDR of 1.0% at the protein level. Finally, we compared the performance of the IPP to a conventional proteomic pipeline (CPP) for protein identification using a controlled FDR of <1% at the protein level. Using the IPP, a total of 5756 proteins (vs 4453 using the CPP) including 477 alternative splicing variants (vs 182 using the CPP) were identified from human hippocampal tissue. In addition, a total of 10 missing proteins (vs 7 using the CPP) were identified with two or more unique peptides, and their tryptic peptides were validated using MS/MS spectral pattern from a repository database or their corresponding synthetic peptides. This study shows that the IPP effectively improved the identification of proteins, including alternative splicing variants and missing proteins, in human hippocampal tissues for the C-HPP. All RAW files used in this study were deposited in ProteomeXchange (PXD000395).

  11. Affective valence influences participant's susceptibility to false memories and illusory recollection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehon, Hedwige; Larøi, Frank; Van der Linden, Martial

    2010-10-01

    This study examined the influence of emotional valence on the production of DRM false memories (Roediger & McDermott, 1995). Participants were presented with neutral, positive, or negative DRM lists for a later recognition (Experiment 1) or recall (Experiment 2) test. In both experiments, confidence and recollective experience (i.e., "Remember-Know" judgments; Tulving, 1985) were also assessed. Results consistently showed that, compared with neutral lists, affective lists induced more false recognition and recall of nonpresented critical lures. Moreover, although confidence ratings did not differ between the false remembering from the different kinds of lists, "Remember" responses were more often associated with negative than positive and neutral false remembering of the critical lures. In contrast, positive false remembering of the critical lures was more often associated with "Know" responses. These results are discussed in light of the Paradoxical Negative Emotion (PNE) hypothesis (Porter, Taylor, & ten Bricke, 2008). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. Effects of depressive disorder on false memory for emotional information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Zai-Ting; Hua, Mau-Sun

    2009-01-01

    This study explored with a false memory paradigm whether (1) depressed patients revealed more false memories and (2) whether more negative false than positive false recognition existed in subjects with depressive disorders. Thirty-two patients suffering from a major depressive episode (DSM-IV criteria), and 30 age- and education-matched normal control subjects participated in this study. After the presentation of a list of positive, negative, and neutral association items in the learning phase, subjects were asked to give a yes/no response in the recognition phase. They were also asked to rate 81 recognition items with emotional valence scores. The results revealed more negative false memories in the clinical depression group than in the normal control group; however, we did not find more negative false memories than positive ones in patients. When compared with the normal group, a more conservative response criterion for positive items was evident in patient groups. It was also found that when compared with the normal group, the subjects in the depression group perceived the positive items as less positive. On the basis of present results, it is suggested that depressed subjects judged the emotional information with criteria different from normal individuals, and patients' emotional memory intensity is attenuated by their mood.

  13. The robustness of false memory for emotional pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette-Symons, Brandy A

    2018-02-01

    Emotional material is commonly reported to be more accurately recognised; however, there is substantial evidence of increased false alarm rates (FAR) for emotional material and several reports of stronger influences on response bias than accuracy. This pattern is more frequently reported for words than pictures. Research on the mechanisms underlying bias differences has mostly focused on word lists under short retention intervals. This article presents four series of experiments examining recognition memory for emotional pictures while varying arousal and the control over the content of the pictures at two retention intervals, and one study measuring the relatedness of the series picture sets. Under the shorter retention interval, emotion increased false alarms and reduced accuracy. Under the longer retention interval emotion increased hit rates and FAR, resulting in reduced accuracy and/or bias. At both retention intervals, the pattern of valence effects differed based on the arousal associated with the picture sets. Emotional pictures were found to be more related than neutral pictures in each set; however, the influence of relatedness alone does not provide an adequate explanation for all emotional differences. The results demonstrate substantial emotional differences in picture recognition that vary based on valence, arousal and retention interval.

  14. The problem of false positives and false negatives in violent video game experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J

    The problem of false positives and negatives has received considerable attention in behavioral research in recent years. The current paper uses video game violence research as an example of how such issues may develop in a field. Despite decades of research, evidence on whether violent video games (VVGs) contribute to aggression in players has remained mixed. Concerns have been raised in recent years that experiments regarding VVGs may suffer from both "false positives" and "false negatives." The current paper examines this issue in three sets of video game experiments, two sets of video game experiments on aggression and prosocial behaviors identified in meta-analysis, and a third group of recent null studies. Results indicated that studies of VVGs and aggression appear to be particularly prone to false positive results. Studies of VVGs and prosocial behavior, by contrast are heterogeneous and did not demonstrate any indication of false positive results. However, their heterogeneous nature made it difficult to base solid conclusions on them. By contrast, evidence for false negatives in null studies was limited, and little evidence emerged that null studies lacked power in comparison those highlighted in past meta-analyses as evidence for effects. These results are considered in light of issues related to false positives and negatives in behavioral science more broadly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Experimental Design for a Macrofoam Swab Study Relating the Recovery Efficiency and False Negative Rate to Low Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates on Four Surface Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F.; Hutchison, Janine R.

    2014-04-16

    This report describes the experimental design for a laboratory study to quantify the recovery efficiencies and false negative rates of a validated, macrofoam swab sampling method for low concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus (BG) spores on four surface materials (stainless steel, glass, vinyl tile, plastic light cover panel). Two analytical methods (plating/counting and polymerase chain reaction) will be used. Only one previous study has investigated false negative as a function of affecting test factors. The surrogates BAS and BG have not been tested together in the same study previously. Hence, this study will provide for completing gaps in the available information on the performance of macrofoam swab sampling at low concentrations.

  16. cn.MOPS: mixture of Poissons for discovering copy number variations in next-generation sequencing data with a low false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klambauer, Günter; Schwarzbauer, Karin; Mayr, Andreas; Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Bodenhofer, Ulrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

    2012-05-01

    Quantitative analyses of next-generation sequencing (NGS) data, such as the detection of copy number variations (CNVs), remain challenging. Current methods detect CNVs as changes in the depth of coverage along chromosomes. Technological or genomic variations in the depth of coverage thus lead to a high false discovery rate (FDR), even upon correction for GC content. In the context of association studies between CNVs and disease, a high FDR means many false CNVs, thereby decreasing the discovery power of the study after correction for multiple testing. We propose 'Copy Number estimation by a Mixture Of PoissonS' (cn.MOPS), a data processing pipeline for CNV detection in NGS data. In contrast to previous approaches, cn.MOPS incorporates modeling of depths of coverage across samples at each genomic position. Therefore, cn.MOPS is not affected by read count variations along chromosomes. Using a Bayesian approach, cn.MOPS decomposes variations in the depth of coverage across samples into integer copy numbers and noise by means of its mixture components and Poisson distributions, respectively. The noise estimate allows for reducing the FDR by filtering out detections having high noise that are likely to be false detections. We compared cn.MOPS with the five most popular methods for CNV detection in NGS data using four benchmark datasets: (i) simulated data, (ii) NGS data from a male HapMap individual with implanted CNVs from the X chromosome, (iii) data from HapMap individuals with known CNVs, (iv) high coverage data from the 1000 Genomes Project. cn.MOPS outperformed its five competitors in terms of precision (1-FDR) and recall for both gains and losses in all benchmark data sets. The software cn.MOPS is publicly available as an R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnmops/ and at Bioconductor.

  17. A false-alarm aware methodology to develop robust and efficient multi-scale infrared small target detection algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moradi, Saed; Moallem, Payman; Sabahi, Mohamad Farzan

    2018-03-01

    False alarm rate and detection rate are still two contradictory metrics for infrared small target detection in an infrared search and track system (IRST), despite the development of new detection algorithms. In certain circumstances, not detecting true targets is more tolerable than detecting false items as true targets. Hence, considering background clutter and detector noise as the sources of the false alarm in an IRST system, in this paper, a false alarm aware methodology is presented to reduce false alarm rate while the detection rate remains undegraded. To this end, advantages and disadvantages of each detection algorithm are investigated and the sources of the false alarms are determined. Two target detection algorithms having independent false alarm sources are chosen in a way that the disadvantages of the one algorithm can be compensated by the advantages of the other one. In this work, multi-scale average absolute gray difference (AAGD) and Laplacian of point spread function (LoPSF) are utilized as the cornerstones of the desired algorithm of the proposed methodology. After presenting a conceptual model for the desired algorithm, it is implemented through the most straightforward mechanism. The desired algorithm effectively suppresses background clutter and eliminates detector noise. Also, since the input images are processed through just four different scales, the desired algorithm has good capability for real-time implementation. Simulation results in term of signal to clutter ratio and background suppression factor on real and simulated images prove the effectiveness and the performance of the proposed methodology. Since the desired algorithm was developed based on independent false alarm sources, our proposed methodology is expandable to any pair of detection algorithms which have different false alarm sources.

  18. Social influence and mental routes to the production of authentic false memories and inauthentic false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Michael F; Skowronski, John J

    2017-05-01

    Two studies assessed the extent to which people incorporated false facts provided by bogus others into their own recognition memory reports, and how these false memory reports were affected by: (a) truth of the information in others' summaries supporting the false facts, (b) motivation to process stories and summaries, (c) source credibility, and (d) ease of remembering original facts. False memory report frequency increased when false facts in a summary were supported by true information and varied inversely with the ease with which original facts could be remembered. Results from a measure probing participants' memory perceptions suggest that some false memories are authentic: People sometimes lack awareness of both the incorporation of false facts into their memory reports and where the false facts came from. However, many false memories are inauthentic: Despite reporting a false memory, people sometimes retain knowledge of the original stimulus and/or the origin of false facts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Arousal-But Not Valence-Reduces False Memories at Retrieval.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Mood affects both memory accuracy and memory distortions. However, some aspects of this relation are still poorly understood: (1) whether valence and arousal equally affect false memory production, and (2) whether retrieval-related processes matter; the extant literature typically shows that mood influences memory performance when it is induced before encoding, leaving unsolved whether mood induced before retrieval also impacts memory. We examined how negative, positive, and neutral mood induced before retrieval affected inferential false memories and related subjective memory experiences. A recognition-memory paradigm for photographs depicting script-like events was employed. Results showed that individuals in both negative and positive moods-similar in arousal levels-correctly recognized more target events and endorsed fewer false memories (and these errors were linked to remember responses less frequently), compared to individuals in neutral mood. This suggests that arousal (but not valence) predicted memory performance; furthermore, we found that arousal ratings provided by participants were more adequate predictors of memory performance than their actual belonging to either positive, negative or neutral mood groups. These findings suggest that arousal has a primary role in affecting memory, and that mood exerts its power on true and false memory even when induced at retrieval.

  20. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-10-19

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue-stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s(-1)) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations.

  1. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue–stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s−1) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations. PMID:24018716

  2. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  3. Neural Network Target Identification System for False Alarm Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, David; Edens, Weston; Lu, Thomas T.; Chao, Tien-Hsin

    2009-01-01

    A multi-stage automated target recognition (ATR) system has been designed to perform computer vision tasks with adequate proficiency in mimicking human vision. The system is able to detect, identify, and track targets of interest. Potential regions of interest (ROIs) are first identified by the detection stage using an Optimum Trade-off Maximum Average Correlation Height (OT-MACH) filter combined with a wavelet transform. False positives are then eliminated by the verification stage using feature extraction methods in conjunction with neural networks. Feature extraction transforms the ROIs using filtering and binning algorithms to create feature vectors. A feed forward back propagation neural network (NN) is then trained to classify each feature vector and remove false positives. This paper discusses the test of the system performance and parameter optimizations process which adapts the system to various targets and datasets. The test results show that the system was successful in substantially reducing the false positive rate when tested on a sonar image dataset.

  4. Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, Robert; And Others

    This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

  5. Educational inequalities in health expectancy during the financial crisis in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm

    2015-01-01

    in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 1.3 years for men and 1.2 years for women. CONCLUSIONS: The social inequality in DFLE for men and expected lifetime in self-rated good health for both genders increased slightly during the short period. The financial crisis did not seem to indicate...

  6. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  7. False alerts in air traffic control conflict alerting system: is there a "cry wolf" effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D; Rice, Stephen; Keller, David; Hutchins, Shaun; Hughes, Jamie; Clayton, Krisstal

    2009-08-01

    The aim is to establish the extent to which the high false-alarm rate of air traffic control midair conflict alerts is responsible for a "cry wolf' effect-where true alerts are not responded to and all alerts are delayed in their response. Some aircraft collisions have been partly attributed to the cry wolf effect, and in other domains (health care and systems monitoring), there is a causal connection between false-alarm rate and cry wolf behavior. We hypothesized that a corresponding relationship exists in air traffic control (ATC). Aircraft track and alert system behavior data surrounding 495 conflict alerts were analyzed to identify true and false alerts, trajectory type, and controller behavior. Forty-five percent of the alerts were false, ranging from 0.28 to 0.58. Although centers with more false alerts contributed to more nonresponses, there was no evidence that these were nonresponses to true alerts or that response times were delayed in those centers. Instead, controllers showed desirable anticipatory behavior by issuing trajectory changes prior to the alert. Those trajectory pairs whose conflicts were more difficult to visualize induced more reliance on, and less compliance with, the alerting system. The high false-alarm rate does not appear to induce cry wolf behavior in the context of en route ATC conflict alerts. There is no need to substantially modify conflict alert algorithms, but the conflict alert system may be modified to address difficult-to-visualize conflicts.

  8. Trends in healthy life expectancy in Japan: 1986 - 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Yong

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the increasing life expectancy of Japanese men and women in relation to their health from 1986 to 2004. We computed healthy life expectancy for seven available time-points using the prevalence-based Sullivan method. The results showed that, for both sexes and at all ages, the gains in life expectancy prior to 1995 were mostly in years of good self-rated health, while the gains thereafter were in years of poor self-rated health. The exception was for women at age 85, among whom there was an almost continuous increase in the number of years in poor health. The proportion of life spent in different health states suggested evidence of morbidity compression until 1995, followed by an expansion of morbidity.

  9. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaekyoung Bae

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

  10. Arousal—But Not Valence—Reduces False Memories at Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    Mood affects both memory accuracy and memory distortions. However, some aspects of this relation are still poorly understood: (1) whether valence and arousal equally affect false memory production, and (2) whether retrieval-related processes matter; the extant literature typically shows that mood influences memory performance when it is induced before encoding, leaving unsolved whether mood induced before retrieval also impacts memory. We examined how negative, positive, and neutral mood induced before retrieval affected inferential false memories and related subjective memory experiences. A recognition-memory paradigm for photographs depicting script-like events was employed. Results showed that individuals in both negative and positive moods–similar in arousal levels–correctly recognized more target events and endorsed fewer false memories (and these errors were linked to remember responses less frequently), compared to individuals in neutral mood. This suggests that arousal (but not valence) predicted memory performance; furthermore, we found that arousal ratings provided by participants were more adequate predictors of memory performance than their actual belonging to either positive, negative or neutral mood groups. These findings suggest that arousal has a primary role in affecting memory, and that mood exerts its power on true and false memory even when induced at retrieval. PMID:26938737

  11. Arousal-But Not Valence-Reduces False Memories at Retrieval.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiara Mirandola

    Full Text Available Mood affects both memory accuracy and memory distortions. However, some aspects of this relation are still poorly understood: (1 whether valence and arousal equally affect false memory production, and (2 whether retrieval-related processes matter; the extant literature typically shows that mood influences memory performance when it is induced before encoding, leaving unsolved whether mood induced before retrieval also impacts memory. We examined how negative, positive, and neutral mood induced before retrieval affected inferential false memories and related subjective memory experiences. A recognition-memory paradigm for photographs depicting script-like events was employed. Results showed that individuals in both negative and positive moods-similar in arousal levels-correctly recognized more target events and endorsed fewer false memories (and these errors were linked to remember responses less frequently, compared to individuals in neutral mood. This suggests that arousal (but not valence predicted memory performance; furthermore, we found that arousal ratings provided by participants were more adequate predictors of memory performance than their actual belonging to either positive, negative or neutral mood groups. These findings suggest that arousal has a primary role in affecting memory, and that mood exerts its power on true and false memory even when induced at retrieval.

  12. Optimal Joint Expected Delay Forwarding in Delay Tolerant Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Xu; Xin Feng; Wen Jun Yang; Ru Chuan Wang; Bing Qing Han

    2013-01-01

    Multicopy forwarding schemes have been employed in delay tolerant network (DTN) to improve the delivery delay and delivery rate. Much effort has been focused on reducing the routing cost while retaining high performance. This paper aims to provide an optimal joint expected delay forwarding (OJEDF) protocol which minimizes the expected delay while satisfying a certain constant on the number of forwardings per message. We propose a comprehensive forwarding metric called joint expected delay (JE...

  13. Thrombosed false channel in acute aortic dissections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alerci, M.; Dore, R.; Kluzer, A.; Digiulio, G.; D'Andrea, F.; De Agostini, A.

    1987-01-01

    Three cases are reported of acute dissection with complete thrombosis of the false channel, which is a very uncommonevent in DeBakey's I and II type aortic dissections. The 3 patients entered hospital because of severe thoracic pain without any ECG sign of myocardial infarction. Emergency CT showed evidence of pericardial effusion suggesting hemopericardium, enlargement of the ascending aorta and a peripheral semilunar filling defect which caused a slight deformation of the true channel. On precontrast scans, only one case showed inward displacement of peripheral calcifications and high-density aortic wall. No tipical signs of aortic dissection were reported, expect in the first patient - where a double contrast filled lumen, separated by an intimal flap was seen. CT findings are individually discussed. It is emphasized that in all patients more than one CT sign was present at a time. The correct evaluation of these signs together with the clinacal data could lead to the right diagnosis of aortic dissection in spite of the lack of a f???

  14. Educational inequalities in health expectancy during the financial crisis in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen; Jeune, Bernard

    2015-12-01

    To investigate educational differentials in health expectancy among 50-year-old Danes before and during the financial crisis. Nationwide register data on mortality were combined with data from SHARE surveys in 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health by educational level. The difference in life expectancy between 50-year-old men and women with high and low educational levels increased by 0.3 and 0.8 years, respectively. The overall educational differentials in DFLE did not change much for women, whereas for men the tendency was that DFLE increased for those with high educational level and decreased for those with less education ascending the difference by almost 2 years (from 5.9 to 7.8 years), although the difference was not statistically significant. The educational disparity in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 1.3 years for men and 1.2 years for women. The social inequality in DFLE for men and expected lifetime in self-rated good health for both genders increased slightly during the short period. The financial crisis did not seem to indicate a change in the persistent trend of the widening social gap.

  15. Expectation requires treatment to boost pain relief: an fMRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Geuter, Stephan; Büchel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the effect of a possible interaction between topical analgesic treatment and treatment expectation on pain at the behavioral and neuronal level by combining topical lidocaine/prilocaine treatment with an expectancy manipulation in a 2 by 2 within-subject design (open treatment, hidden treatment, placebo, control). Thirty-two healthy subjects received heat pain stimuli on capsaicin-pretreated skin and rated their experienced pain during functional magnetic resonance imaging. This allowed us to separate drug- and expectancy-related effects at the behavioral and neuronal levels and to test whether they interact during the processing of painful stimuli. Pain ratings were reduced during active treatment and were associated with reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex. Pain ratings were lower in open treatment compared with hidden treatment and were related to reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the secondary somatosensory cortex, and the thalamus. Testing for an interaction revealed that the expectation effect was significantly larger in the active treatment conditions compared with the no-treatment conditions and was associated with signal changes in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the ventral striatum. In conclusion, this study shows that even in the case of a topical analgesic, expectation interacts with treatment at the level of pain ratings and neuronal responses in placebo-related brain regions. Our results are highly relevant in the clinical context as they show (i) that expectation can boost treatment and (ii) that expectation and treatment are not necessarily additive as assumed in placebo-controlled clinical trials. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. False targets vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2009-01-01

    System defense against natural threats and disasters that have a stochastic nature includes providing redundancy and protecting system elements. The defense against strategic intentional attacks can also include deploying false targets aimed at misleading the attacker. Distribution of the available resources among different defensive means is an important problem that arises in organizing the defense of complex civil infrastructures, industrial systems or military objects. The article considers defense resource allocation in a system exposed to external intentional attack. The expected damage caused by the attack is evaluated as system unsupplied demand. The defender distributes its limited resource between deploying redundant genuine elements and false elements, both of which are targets of attack. The attacker attacks a subset of the elements and distributes its limited resource evenly among the attacked elements. Two cases are considered: in the first one the number of attacked elements and the vulnerability of each genuine element are fixed and the defense resource distribution is determined as a solution of an optimization problem; in the second one the number of attacked elements is the attacker's free choice variable and the element's vulnerability depends on a contest determined by the defender's and attacker's resources allocated to each element. The defender's optimal resource distribution strategy is determined as a solution of a two-period minmax game. It is shown that the optimal number of genuine elements decreases monotonically with the growth of the element cost and vulnerability, whereas the optimal number of false elements demonstrates non-monotonic behavior. The contest intensity is an important factor influencing the optimal defense resource distribution. It cannot be ignored when the defense strategy is determined, and it thus also impacts the attack strategy

  17. A Unifying Approach to Axiomatic Non-Expected Utility Theories: Correction and Comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.H. Chew; L.G. Epstein (Larry); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1993-01-01

    textabstractChew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal′s result to prove that Theorem 2

  18. A unifying approach to axiomatic non-expected utility theories: correction and comment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hong, C.S.; Epstein, L.G.; Wakker, P.

    1993-01-01

    Chew and Epstein attempted to provide a unifying axiomatic framework for a number of generalizations of expected utility theory. Wakker pointed out that Theorem A, on which the central unifying proposition is based, is false. In this note, we apply Segal's result to prove that Theorem 2 is

  19. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  20. The effects of acute alcohol intoxication on the cognitive mechanisms underlying false facial recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Melissa F; Flowe, Heather D

    2016-06-01

    False face recognition rates are sometimes higher when faces are learned while under the influence of alcohol. Alcohol myopia theory (AMT) proposes that acute alcohol intoxication during face learning causes people to attend to only the most salient features of a face, impairing the encoding of less salient facial features. Yet, there is currently no direct evidence to support this claim. Our objective was to test whether acute alcohol intoxication impairs face learning by causing subjects to attend to a salient (i.e., distinctive) facial feature over other facial features, as per AMT. We employed a balanced placebo design (N = 100). Subjects in the alcohol group were dosed to achieve a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.06 %, whereas the no alcohol group consumed tonic water. Alcohol expectancy was controlled. Subjects studied faces with or without a distinctive feature (e.g., scar, piercing). An old-new recognition test followed. Some of the test faces were "old" (i.e., previously studied), and some were "new" (i.e., not previously studied). We varied whether the new test faces had a previously studied distinctive feature versus other familiar characteristics. Intoxicated and sober recognition accuracy was comparable, but subjects in the alcohol group made more positive identifications overall compared to the no alcohol group. The results are not in keeping with AMT. Rather, a more general cognitive mechanism appears to underlie false face recognition in intoxicated subjects. Specifically, acute alcohol intoxication during face learning results in more liberal choosing, perhaps because of an increased reliance on familiarity.

  1. With sadness comes accuracy; with happiness, false memory: mood and the false memory effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L

    2005-10-01

    The Deese-Roediger-McDermott paradigm lures people to produce false memories. Two experiments examined whether induced positive or negative moods would influence this false memory effect. The affect-as-information hypothesis predicts that, on the one hand, positive affective cues experienced as task-relevant feedback encourage relational processing during encoding, which should enhance false memory effects. On the other hand, negative affective cues are hypothesized to encourage item-specific processing at encoding, which should discourage such effects. The results of Experiment 1 are consistent with these predictions: Individuals in negative moods were significantly less likely to show false memory effects than those in positive moods or those whose mood was not manipulated. Experiment 2 introduced inclusion instructions to investigate whether moods had their effects at encoding or retrieval. The results replicated the false memory finding of Experiment 1 and provide evidence that moods influence the accessibility of lures at encoding, rather than influencing monitoring at retrieval of whether lures were actually presented.

  2. Expectations and final evaluation of complete dentures by patients, dentist and dental technician.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marachlioglou, C R M Z; Dos Santos, J F F; Cunha, V P P; Marchini, Leonardo

    2010-07-01

    There is a poor association between the dentist's evaluation of denture quality and patients' satisfaction with their dentures. Possible differences between dental professionals and patients' expectations might help explain differences in outcome evaluations. This study compared scores given by a dentist, a dental technician and patients for their expectations before and their final evaluation after complete dentures treatment. Twenty completely edentulous patients, a prosthodontist and a dental technician provided scores for the expected aesthetic and functional results of their dentures based on a visual analogue scale at baseline. Post-treatment completion ratings were given after adjustments, by dentist and patients. The dental technician provided post-treatment completion ratings after completing the dentures. The patients had higher expectations than the dental technician and the dentist perceived for both aesthetic and function (P < 0.001). The patients also presented higher post-treatment completion ratings than the dental professionals perceived for final aesthetics (P = 0.016, Kendall's W = 0.207) and function (P = 0.002, Kendall's W = 0.303). Only the dentist presented a statistically significant difference between expectations (lower) and final (higher) outcomes for aesthetics (P = 0.017) and function (P = 0.003). There was no correlation between expectations and post-treatment completion ratings according to the patients' age. There was also no correlation between the patients' gender and expectation scores. Patients presented higher expectations regarding their dentures than dental professionals. The dentist believed that dentures would bring fewer benefits than patients did, but his perception of denture benefits post-treatment was significantly higher than his expectations.

  3. False discovery rate control incorporating phylogenetic tree increases detection power in microbiome-wide multiple testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jian; Cao, Hongyuan; Chen, Jun

    2017-09-15

    Next generation sequencing technologies have enabled the study of the human microbiome through direct sequencing of microbial DNA, resulting in an enormous amount of microbiome sequencing data. One unique characteristic of microbiome data is the phylogenetic tree that relates all the bacterial species. Closely related bacterial species have a tendency to exhibit a similar relationship with the environment or disease. Thus, incorporating the phylogenetic tree information can potentially improve the detection power for microbiome-wide association studies, where hundreds or thousands of tests are conducted simultaneously to identify bacterial species associated with a phenotype of interest. Despite much progress in multiple testing procedures such as false discovery rate (FDR) control, methods that take into account the phylogenetic tree are largely limited. We propose a new FDR control procedure that incorporates the prior structure information and apply it to microbiome data. The proposed procedure is based on a hierarchical model, where a structure-based prior distribution is designed to utilize the phylogenetic tree. By borrowing information from neighboring bacterial species, we are able to improve the statistical power of detecting associated bacterial species while controlling the FDR at desired levels. When the phylogenetic tree is mis-specified or non-informative, our procedure achieves a similar power as traditional procedures that do not take into account the tree structure. We demonstrate the performance of our method through extensive simulations and real microbiome datasets. We identified far more alcohol-drinking associated bacterial species than traditional methods. R package StructFDR is available from CRAN. chen.jun2@mayo.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  4. Reducing false-positive incidental findings with ensemble genotyping and logistic regression based variant filtering methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Lee, In-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Hambuch, Tina; Choe, Yongjoon; Kim, MinHyeok; Lee, Kyungjoon; Song, Taemin; Neu, Matthew B; Gupta, Neha; Kohane, Isaac S; Green, Robert C; Kong, Sek Won

    2014-08-01

    As whole genome sequencing (WGS) uncovers variants associated with rare and common diseases, an immediate challenge is to minimize false-positive findings due to sequencing and variant calling errors. False positives can be reduced by combining results from orthogonal sequencing methods, but costly. Here, we present variant filtering approaches using logistic regression (LR) and ensemble genotyping to minimize false positives without sacrificing sensitivity. We evaluated the methods using paired WGS datasets of an extended family prepared using two sequencing platforms and a validated set of variants in NA12878. Using LR or ensemble genotyping based filtering, false-negative rates were significantly reduced by 1.1- to 17.8-fold at the same levels of false discovery rates (5.4% for heterozygous and 4.5% for homozygous single nucleotide variants (SNVs); 30.0% for heterozygous and 18.7% for homozygous insertions; 25.2% for heterozygous and 16.6% for homozygous deletions) compared to the filtering based on genotype quality scores. Moreover, ensemble genotyping excluded > 98% (105,080 of 107,167) of false positives while retaining > 95% (897 of 937) of true positives in de novo mutation (DNM) discovery in NA12878, and performed better than a consensus method using two sequencing platforms. Our proposed methods were effective in prioritizing phenotype-associated variants, and an ensemble genotyping would be essential to minimize false-positive DNM candidates. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  5. Do Student Evaluations of Teaching Depend on the Distribution of Expected Grade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos-Diaz, Horacio; Ragan, James F., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Prior research suggests that student evaluations of teaching may depend on the average grade expected in a class. We hypothesize that, because of risk aversion, student ratings also depend on the distribution of expected grades. As predicted, student ratings at the University of Puerto Rico at Bayamon are significantly and negatively related to…

  6. The false positive exercise test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moritani, Kohshiro; Matsuda, Yasuo; Ozaki, Masaharu; Ogawa, Hiroshi; Ichiyama, Masaji; Matsuda, Masako; Kusukawa, Reizo

    1986-01-01

    Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin were performed on 7 patients with true positive and 8 patients with false positive exercise test results. Four of 7 patients with true positive changes and 8 patients with false positive changes underwent exercise cardiac scintigraphy. Scintigrams showed perfusion defects in 4 patients with true positive outcomes, and no perfusion defect in 8 patients with false positive outcomes. Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin were performed with the same load as that without nitroglycerin. In all 7 patients with true positive exercise test results, ST segment depression observed in the control exercise test was not observed in the nitroglycerin exercise test. In the false positive patients, ST segment depression observed in the control exercise test remained unchanged in 7 of 8 patients receiving nitroglycerin. Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin as well as exercise cardiac scintigraphy are valuable tods in differentiating false positive from true positive patients. Furthermore, these data suggest that ST segment depression in the false positive patients may not be related to myocardial ischemia. (author)

  7. Treatment Expectations for CAM Interventions in Pediatric Chronic Pain Patients and their Parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennie C. I. Tsao

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Patient expectations regarding complementary and alternative medicine (CAM interventions have important implications for treatment adherence, attrition and clinical outcome. Little is known, however, about parent and child treatment expectations regarding CAM approaches for pediatric chronic pain problems. The present study examined ratings of the expected benefits of CAM (i.e. hypnosis, massage, acupuncture, yoga and relaxation and conventional medicine (i.e. medications, surgery interventions in 45 children (32 girls; mean age = 13.8 years ± 2.5 and parents (39 mothers presenting for treatment at a specialty clinic for chronic pediatric pain. Among children, medications and relaxation were expected to be significantly more helpful than the remaining approaches (P < 0.01. However, children expected the three lowest rated interventions, acupuncture, surgery and hypnosis, to be of equal benefit. Results among parents were similar to those found in children but there were fewer significant differences between ratings of the various interventions. Only surgery was expected by parents to be significantly less helpful than the other approaches (P < 0.01. When parent and child perceptions were compared, parents expected hypnosis, acupuncture and yoga, to be more beneficial than did children, whereas children expected surgery to be more helpful than did parents (P < 0.01. Overall, children expected the benefits of CAM to be fairly low with parents' expectations only somewhat more positive. The current findings suggest that educational efforts directed at enhancing treatment expectations regarding CAM, particularly among children with chronic pain, are warranted.

  8. A randomised controlled trial of expectant management versus surgical evacuation of early pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarajah, Ravichandran; Quek, Yek Song; Kuppannan, Kaliammah; Woon, Shu Yuan; Jeganathan, Ravichandran

    2014-07-01

    To show whether a clinically significant difference in success rates exists between expectant and surgical management of early pregnancy loss. Randomised controlled trial comparing expectant versus surgical management of early pregnancy loss over a 1-year period from 1st January to 31st December 2009 at Sultanah Aminah Hospital, Johor Bahru. Pregnant women with missed or incomplete miscarriages at gestations up to 14 weeks were recruited in this study. The success rate in the surgical group was measured as curettage performed without any complications during or after the procedure, while the success rate in the expectant group was defined as complete spontaneous expulsion of products of conception within 6 weeks without any complication. A total of 360 women were recruited and randomised to expectant or surgical management, with 180 women in each group. There was no statistically significant difference in the success rate between the groups and between the different types of miscarriage. With expectant management, 131 (74%) patients had a complete spontaneous expulsion of products of conception, of whom 106 (83%) women miscarried within 7 days. However, the rates of unplanned admissions (18.1%) and unplanned surgical evacuations (17.5%) in the expectant group were significantly higher than the rates (7.4% and 8% respectively) in the surgical group. The complications in both groups were similar. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria (1980 - 2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sede, Peter I; Ohemeng, Williams

    2015-01-01

    Attainment of 70 years life expectancy by 2020 is one of the millennium development goals in Nigeria. This study examined the socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria using data from 1980-2011. Judging from the endogeneity feature of the variables, A VAR and VECM frameworks were employed. Socio-economic features were proxy by secondary school enrolment, government expenditure on health, per capita income, unemployment rate and the Naira foreign exchange rate. It was found that, the conventional socio-economic variables such as per capita income, education and government expenditure on health considered to be highly effective in determining life expectancy of developing countries are not significant in the case of Nigeria. The study however suggests that, life expectancy in Nigeria could be improved if attention is given to quality of government health expenditure, unemployment and measures to halt the depreciation of the Nigerian Naira against major foreign currency.

  10. Greater expectations: using hierarchical linear modeling to examine expectancy for treatment outcome as a predictor of treatment response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Matthew; Anderson, Page; Henrich, Christopher C; Rothbaum, Barbara Olasov

    2008-12-01

    A client's expectation that therapy will be beneficial has long been considered an important factor contributing to therapeutic outcomes, but recent empirical work examining this hypothesis has primarily yielded null findings. The present study examined the contribution of expectancies for treatment outcome to actual treatment outcome from the start of therapy through 12-month follow-up in a clinical sample of individuals (n=72) treated for fear of flying with either in vivo exposure or virtual reality exposure therapy. Using a piecewise hierarchical linear model, outcome expectancy predicted treatment gains made during therapy but not during follow-up. Compared to lower levels, higher expectations for treatment outcome yielded stronger rates of symptom reduction from the beginning to the end of treatment on 2 standardized self-report questionnaires on fear of flying. The analytic approach of the current study is one potential reason that findings contrast with prior literature. The advantages of using hierarchical linear modeling to assess interindividual differences in longitudinal data are discussed.

  11. The false expectations of Michael Porter's strategic management framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Aktouf

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article tries to reveal the inadequacies of Porter’s strategic thought from the methodological and epistemological point of view. It shows that the praxiological promises of this thought are impossible to realize given its dubious and impossible to operationalize. The article lacks of fundamental issues (as pointed out by the Resource Based Theorists that the organization needs to assets and harness in order to be successful in its attempt to reach and keep its competitive advantage, making it not easily imitable.

  12. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  13. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)

  14. Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, Daniel R

    2008-12-01

    The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

  15. Using data to help increase STEM retention rates for at-risk students; Student expectations and skill building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Jones, G.; Heaney, A.

    2013-12-01

    Retention in the STEM fields is often a focus for higher education due to a shortage of trained workforce members. In particular, much effort has been spent on first year retention rates and introductory level courses under the assumption that students are more likely to drop out of STEM majors early in their higher education degree progress. While the retention rates of women, minorities, and low income students have been a priority by both the National Science Foundation and the private sector, we are interested in at-risk first year students for this study. The University of Wyoming Synergy Program's goal is to promote academic success and retention for underprepared and at-risk students by creating a series of first semester curricula as theme-based college transition skills courses that are paired with English courses. This creates a cohort group of courses for the students with increased communication between instructors at the same time allowing greater development of student social networks. In this study we are highlighting the results of the STEM students as compared with other at-risk participants in the program. The Synergy Program enrolls approximately 144 students each year with pre- and post-course surveys that directly measure which college skills students select as important as well as student expectations of the amount of time required for STEM courses. Follow-up surveys track the same queries for students who persist to their junior and senior year. In addition, instructors complete a summative survey about skills they find important to student success and individual student's challenges and successes with a variety of skills. Our results show a large gap in skills between those identified as important by students and those identified by their instructors. Expectations for the amount of time required to complete work for STEM courses and the reported time spent on course work are not constant when progressing throughout college. This analysis

  16. False memory production :effects of self-consistent false information and motivated cognition

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Martha

    1996-01-01

    Remembrance of one's personal past and the development of false memories have recently received intense public scrutiny. Based upon self-schema (Markus, 1977) and selfverification (Swann, 1987) theories, two studies were conducted to investigate the hypothesis that a self-schema guides cognitive processing of self-relevant information and thereby influences the construction of a memory that includes false information, particularly more so if this information is self-schema consistent than ...

  17. What has contributed to the change in life expectancy in Italy between 1980 and 1992?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngongo, K N; Nante, N; Chenet, L; McKee, M

    1999-07-01

    Life expectancy at birth in southern Europe is known to be greater than expected in comparison with levels of economic development. This has been attributed to the 'Mediterranean diet'. There are, however, concerns that this comparative advantage is being lost. This paper examines the factors underlying changing life expectancy in Italy since 1980. The subjects of this analysis are obtained from data on all deaths in Italy between 1980 and 1992. Change in age specific death rates is calculated from selected causes and, using the method developed by Pollard, the contribution of deaths from different causes and at different ages to changing life expectancy at birth is estimated. Between 1980 and 1992, life expectancy at birth increased by 2.70 years for men and 2.75 years for women. Death rates have fallen among children and those over 40. In contrast, death rates have increased among men aged between 20 and 39 and have increased very slightly among women aged 25-29. Falling death rates from ischaemic heart disease are continuing to contribute to increasing life expectancy. Death rates from lung and breast cancer are rising among women but are compensated for by falling death rates from other cancers. Among men, falling death rates from cancer at younger ages are being offset by increases at older ages. The rising death rate among younger men is almost entirely due to AIDS, with accidents also making a small contribution. Life expectancy in Italy has improved throughout the 1980s, largely driven by falling death rates from cardiovascular diseases. Here are, however, some worrying trends, most notably the rising death rate among young men, due almost entirely to AIDS. The changing pattern of mortality has some similarities with Spain, another Mediterranean country, but there are also important differences.

  18. Emotional content enhances true but not false memory for categorized stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hae-Yoon; Kensinger, Elizabeth A; Rajaram, Suparna

    2013-04-01

    Past research has shown that emotion enhances true memory, but that emotion can either increase or decrease false memory. Two theoretical possibilities-the distinctiveness of emotional stimuli and the conceptual relatedness of emotional content-have been implicated as being responsible for influencing both true and false memory for emotional content. In the present study, we sought to identify the mechanisms that underlie these mixed findings by equating the thematic relatedness of the study materials across each type of valence used (negative, positive, or neutral). In three experiments, categorically bound stimuli (e.g., funeral, pets, and office items) were used for this purpose. When the encoding task required the processing of thematic relatedness, a significant true-memory enhancement for emotional content emerged in recognition memory, but no emotional boost to false memory (exp. 1). This pattern persisted for true memory with a longer retention interval between study and test (24 h), and false recognition was reduced for emotional items (exp. 2). Finally, better recognition memory for emotional items once again emerged when the encoding task (arousal ratings) required the processing of the emotional aspect of the study items, with no emotional boost to false recognition (EXP. 3). Together, these findings suggest that when emotional and neutral stimuli are equivalently high in thematic relatedness, emotion continues to improve true memory, but it does not override other types of grouping to increase false memory.

  19. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

    1986-01-01

    A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

  20. 19 CFR 111.32 - False information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false False information. 111.32 Section 111.32 Customs... CUSTOMS BROKERS Duties and Responsibilities of Customs Brokers § 111.32 False information. A broker must... procure the giving of, any false or misleading information or testimony in any matter pending before the...

  1. Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fukač, Martin

    -, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

  2. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  3. Patient characteristics associated with false arrhythmia alarms in intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harris PR

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Patricia R Harris,1,2 Jessica K Zègre-Hemsey,3,4 Daniel Schindler,5 Yong Bai,6 Michele M Pelter,2,7 Xiao Hu2,8 1Department of Nursing, School of Health and Natural Sciences, Dominican University of California, San Rafael, 2Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, CA, 3School of Nursing, 4Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC, 5Intensive Care Unit, The Neuroscience Center, Sutter Eden Medical Center, Castro Valley, 6Hu Research Laboratory, Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, 7ECG Monitoring Research Lab, Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, 8Physiological Nursing and Neurological Surgery, Affiliate Faculty of Institute for Computational Health Sciences Core Faculty UCB/UCSF Joint Bio-Engineering Graduate Program, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA Introduction: A high rate of false arrhythmia alarms in the intensive care unit (ICU leads to alarm fatigue, the condition of desensitization and potentially inappropriate silencing of alarms due to frequent invalid and nonactionable alarms, often referred to as false alarms. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify patient characteristics, such as gender, age, body mass index, and diagnosis associated with frequent false arrhythmia alarms in the ICU. Methods: This descriptive, observational study prospectively enrolled patients who were consecutively admitted to one of five adult ICUs (77 beds at an urban medical center over a period of 31 days in 2013. All monitor alarms and continuous waveforms were stored on a secure server. Nurse scientists with expertise in cardiac monitoring used a standardized protocol to annotate six clinically important types of arrhythmia alarms (asystole, pause, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia, accelerated ventricular rhythm, and

  4. The problem of false-positive human papillomavirus DNA tests in cervical screening

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rebolj, Matejka; Pribac, Igor; Frederiksen, Maria Eiholm

    2013-01-01

    Human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing has been extensively studied in randomized controlled trials of primary cervical screening. Based on encouraging results concerning its high detection rates and a high negative predictive value for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN), HPV testing...... will probably replace cytology in future primary cervical screening. However, HPV testing is associated with more frequent false-positive tests compared to cytology. False-positive tests are defined as positive screening tests which are not subsequently confirmed with high-grade CIN. Several authors have...

  5. Complementarity in false memory illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Reyna, V F

    2018-03-01

    For some years, the DRM illusion has been the most widely studied form of false memory. The consensus theoretical interpretation is that the illusion is a reality reversal, in which certain new words (critical distractors) are remembered as though they are old list words rather than as what they are-new words that are similar to old ones. This reality-reversal interpretation is supported by compelling lines of evidence, but prior experiments are limited by the fact that their memory tests only asked whether test items were old. We removed that limitation by also asking whether test items were new-similar. This more comprehensive methodology revealed that list words and critical distractors are remembered quite differently. Memory for list words is compensatory: They are remembered as old at high rates and remembered as new-similar at very low rates. In contrast, memory for critical distractors is complementary: They are remembered as both old and new-similar at high rates, which means that the DRM procedure induces a complementarity illusion rather than a reality reversal. The conjoint recognition model explains complementarity as a function of three retrieval processes (semantic familiarity, target recollection, and context recollection), and it predicts that complementarity can be driven up or down by varying the mix of those processes. Our experiments generated data on that prediction and introduced a convenient statistic, the complementarity ratio, which measures (a) the level of complementarity in memory performance and (b) whether its direction is reality-consistent or reality-reversed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  7. Expectation values of the e+PsH system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, J.-Y.; Mitroy, J.

    2007-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + PsH are computed using a ground-state wave function consisting of 1500 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + PsH ∞ energy was -0.810 254 hartrees, which has a binding energy of 0.021 057 hartrees against dissociation into e + +PsH. The 2γ annihilation rate was 2.7508x10 9 s -1 . Binding energies and annihilation rates are also given for the different finite-mass variants of e + PsH. Comparisons between expectation values for e + PsH and PsH provide compelling evidence that the e + PsH ground state can be regarded as consisting of a weakly bound positron orbiting the PsH ground state

  8. Consumer concerns and expectations about novel food processing technologies: effects on product liking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardello, Armand V

    2003-06-01

    Eighty-eight consumers participated in a blind pre-test in which they rated their baseline preference for chocolate pudding, their liking of three tasted brands of chocolate pudding, and their level of concern for 20 different food processing and preservation technologies. All returned one month later and tasted the same puddings, but this time they were informed that they had been processed by one of several different novel or traditional food processing techniques. Different sub-groups were informed of the name of the process, the name plus a factual description of the process, or the name, the factual description, plus a benefit statement. Ratings of expected liking were obtained before and after viewing the samples, but before tasting them. Finally, subjects tasted and rated the products for actual liking and a sub-group rated their concern levels for the same 20 technologies rated in the pre-test. Pre-test results showed females to have significantly higher concern levels for all technologies. Individuals who had demonstrated a willingness to consume foods processed by one novel technology (irradiation) had lower concern ratings for all technologies. Ratings of concern were negatively correlated with expected liking for products believed to be processed by the technologies. Expected liking ratings were positively influenced by visual exposure to the product and by a safety and benefit statement. Linear regression of the change in product liking as a function of whether products were better or worse than expected supported an assimilation model of the effect of disconfirmed expectations on liking/disliking. Lastly, post-test concern levels for many of the technologies were reduced by participation in the study.

  9. 29 CFR 778.112 - Day rates and job rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Day rates and job rates. 778.112 Section 778.112 Labor... Requirements Principles for Computing Overtime Pay Based on the âregular Rateâ § 778.112 Day rates and job rates. If the employee is paid a flat sum for a day's work or for doing a particular job, without regard...

  10. Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Increase in social inequality in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    AIMS: Health expectancy represents the average lifetime in various states of health and differs among social groups. The purpose of the study was to determine trends in social inequality in health expectancy since 1994 between groups with high, medium and low educational levels in Denmark. METHODS...... educational level, the increase was 2.7 years for men and 2.2 years for women. The difference between people with low and high educational level in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 2.0 and 1.3 years for 30-year-old men and women, respectively. The social gap also increased for other...... indicators. CONCLUSIONS: During the past 12 years, social inequality in life expectancy and health expectancy has increased in Denmark, but the proportion of the population with a low educational level has decreased....

  12. 47 CFR 64.1801 - Geographic rate averaging and rate integration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Geographic rate averaging and rate integration. 64.1801 Section 64.1801 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES (CONTINUED) MISCELLANEOUS RULES RELATING TO COMMON CARRIERS Geographic Rate Averaging and...

  13. Effects of false yam tuber meals and charcoal on broiler chicken ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The authors investigated the effects of replacing a portion of a commercial broiler feed with false yam tuber meals on broiler growth performance, feed conversion rate (FCR) and blood parameters. Furthermore, wood charcoal was added at various levels to the meals to explore their potential to attenuate toxic effects.

  14. On the susceptibility of adaptive memory to false memory illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Derbish, Mary H

    2010-05-01

    Previous research has shown that survival-related processing of word lists enhances retention for that material. However, the claim that survival-related memories are more accurate has only been examined when true recall and recognition of neutral material has been measured. In the current experiments, we examined the adaptive memory superiority effect for different types of processing and material, measuring accuracy more directly by comparing true and false recollection rates. Survival-related information and processing was examined using word lists containing backward associates of neutral, negative, and survival-related critical lures and type of processing (pleasantness, moving, survival) was varied using an incidental memory paradigm. Across four experiments, results showed that survival-related words were more susceptible than negative and neutral words to the false memory illusion and that processing information in terms of its relevance to survival independently increased this susceptibility to the false memory illusion. Overall, although survival-related processing and survival-related information resulted in poorer, not more accurate, memory, such inaccuracies may have adaptive significance. These findings are discussed in the context of false memory research and recent theories concerning the importance of survival processing and the nature of adaptive memory. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Limited agreement of independent RNAi screens for virus-required host genes owes more to false-negative than false-positive factors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linhui Hao

    Full Text Available Systematic, genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi analysis is a powerful approach to identify gene functions that support or modulate selected biological processes. An emerging challenge shared with some other genome-wide approaches is that independent RNAi studies often show limited agreement in their lists of implicated genes. To better understand this, we analyzed four genome-wide RNAi studies that identified host genes involved in influenza virus replication. These studies collectively identified and validated the roles of 614 cell genes, but pair-wise overlap among the four gene lists was only 3% to 15% (average 6.7%. However, a number of functional categories were overrepresented in multiple studies. The pair-wise overlap of these enriched-category lists was high, ∼19%, implying more agreement among studies than apparent at the gene level. Probing this further, we found that the gene lists implicated by independent studies were highly connected in interacting networks by independent functional measures such as protein-protein interactions, at rates significantly higher than predicted by chance. We also developed a general, model-based approach to gauge the effects of false-positive and false-negative factors and to estimate, from a limited number of studies, the total number of genes involved in a process. For influenza virus replication, this novel statistical approach estimates the total number of cell genes involved to be ∼2,800. This and multiple other aspects of our experimental and computational results imply that, when following good quality control practices, the low overlap between studies is primarily due to false negatives rather than false-positive gene identifications. These results and methods have implications for and applications to multiple forms of genome-wide analysis.

  16. Easy and Informative: Using Confidence-Weighted True-False Items for Knowledge Tests in Psychology Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutke, Stephan; Barenberg, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a specific type of item for knowledge tests, confidence-weighted true-false (CTF) items, and review experiences of its application in psychology courses. A CTF item is a statement about the learning content to which students respond whether the statement is true or false, and they rate their confidence level. Previous studies using…

  17. Dissociative effects of true and false recall as a function of different encoding strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Kerri A

    2007-01-01

    Goodwin, Meissner, and Ericsson (2001) proposed a path model in which elaborative encoding predicted the likelihood of verbalisation of critical, nonpresented words at encoding, which in turn predicted the likelihood of false recall. The present study tested this model of false recall experimentally with a manipulation of encoding strategy and the implementation of the process-tracing technique of protocol analysis. Findings indicated that elaborative encoding led to more verbalisations of critical items during encoding than rote rehearsal of list items, but false recall rates were reduced under elaboration conditions (Experiment 2). Interestingly, false recall was more likely to occur when items were verbalised during encoding than not verbalised (Experiment 1), and participants tended to reinstate their encoding strategies during recall, particularly after elaborative encoding (Experiment 1). Theoretical implications for the interplay of encoding and retrieval processes of false recall are discussed.

  18. Processes Underlying Developmental Reversals in False-Memory Formation: Comment on Brainerd, Reyna, and Ceci (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghetti, Simona

    2008-01-01

    C. J. Brainerd, V. F. Reyna, and S. J. Ceci (2008) reviewed compelling evidence of developmental reversals in false-memory formation (i.e., younger children exhibit lower false-memory rates than do older children and adults) and proposed that this phenomenon depends on the development of gist processing (i.e., the ability to identify and process…

  19. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  20. Use of the local false discovery rate for identification of metabolic biomarkers in rat urine following Genkwa Flos-induced hepatotoxicity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuojing Li

    Full Text Available Metabolomics is concerned with characterizing the large number of metabolites present in a biological system using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR and HPLC/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry. Multivariate analysis is one of the most important tools for metabolic biomarker identification in metabolomic studies. However, analyzing the large-scale data sets acquired during metabolic fingerprinting is a major challenge. As a posterior probability that the features of interest are not affected, the local false discovery rate (LFDR is a good interpretable measure. However, it is rarely used to when interrogating metabolic data to identify biomarkers. In this study, we employed the LFDR method to analyze HPLC/MS data acquired from a metabolomic study of metabolic changes in rat urine during hepatotoxicity induced by Genkwa flos (GF treatment. The LFDR approach was successfully used to identify important rat urine metabolites altered by GF-stimulated hepatotoxicity. Compared with principle component analysis (PCA, LFDR is an interpretable measure and discovers more important metabolites in an HPLC/MS-based metabolomic study.

  1. Marijuana Effect Expectancies: Relations to Social Anxiety and Marijuana Use Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Buckner, Julia D.; Schmidt, Norman B.

    2008-01-01

    High social anxiety is related to marijuana problems, yet the nature of this relation remains unclear. We examined relations between marijuana effect expectancies, social anxiety, and marijuana among undergraduates (N=337). Social anxiety was related positively to negative expectancies and negatively to Tension Reduction Expectancies. Among socially anxious individuals, greater belief that marijuana produces cognitive/behavioral impairment was associated with greater marijuana use rates. Nega...

  2. The probability of false positives in zero-dimensional analyses of one-dimensional kinematic, force and EMG trajectories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pataky, Todd C; Vanrenterghem, Jos; Robinson, Mark A

    2016-06-14

    A false positive is the mistake of inferring an effect when none exists, and although α controls the false positive (Type I error) rate in classical hypothesis testing, a given α value is accurate only if the underlying model of randomness appropriately reflects experimentally observed variance. Hypotheses pertaining to one-dimensional (1D) (e.g. time-varying) biomechanical trajectories are most often tested using a traditional zero-dimensional (0D) Gaussian model of randomness, but variance in these datasets is clearly 1D. The purpose of this study was to determine the likelihood that analyzing smooth 1D data with a 0D model of variance will produce false positives. We first used random field theory (RFT) to predict the probability of false positives in 0D analyses. We then validated RFT predictions via numerical simulations of smooth Gaussian 1D trajectories. Results showed that, across a range of public kinematic, force/moment and EMG datasets, the median false positive rate was 0.382 and not the assumed α=0.05, even for a simple two-sample t test involving N=10 trajectories per group. The median false positive rate for experiments involving three-component vector trajectories was p=0.764. This rate increased to p=0.945 for two three-component vector trajectories, and to p=0.999 for six three-component vectors. This implies that experiments involving vector trajectories have a high probability of yielding 0D statistical significance when there is, in fact, no 1D effect. Either (a) explicit a priori identification of 0D variables or (b) adoption of 1D methods can more tightly control α. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. 25 CFR 26.27 - What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... resume preparation, interview techniques, job retention, and related living skills. ... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What kind of Job Placement support services can I expect? 26.27 Section 26.27 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR HUMAN SERVICES JOB...

  4. Risk factors for false positive and for false negative test results in screening with fecal occult blood testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegeman, Inge; de Wijkerslooth, Thomas R.; Stoop, Esther M.; van Leerdam, Monique; van Ballegooijen, M.; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A.; Fockens, Paul; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Dekker, Evelien; Bossuyt, Patrick M.

    2013-01-01

    Differences in the risk of a false negative or a false positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) across subgroups may affect optimal screening strategies. We evaluate whether subgroups are at increased risk of a false positive or a false negative FIT result, whether such variability in risk is

  5. Angular glint effects generation for false naval target verisimility requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostis, Theodoros G; Galanis, Konstantinos G; Katsikas, Sokratis K

    2009-01-01

    A stimulating problem in the generation of coherent countermeasures for high range resolution radar systems is the inclusion of angular glint effects in the preparation of the false target mask. Since angular glint is representative of extended naval targets, this inclusion increases the credibility factor of the decoy playback signal at the adversary radar-operator station. In this paper, the ability of an interferometric inverse synthetic aperture radar (InISAR) simulator to provide a proof of concept towards the clarification of this challenging task is ascertained. The solution consists of three novel vector representations of the generated data, which are proven to behave according to the laws of physics governing the glint phenomenon. The first depiction is the angular glint injection at the target which is followed by the representation of the wavefront distortion at the radar. A value-added time procession integration of the target in pure roll motion provides an expected by ISAR theory side-view image of the naval extended false target. The effectiveness of the proposed approach through verification and validation of the results by using the method of pictorial evidence is established. A final argument is raised on the usage of this software tool for actual obfuscation and deception actions for air defence at sea applications

  6. Improved Detection of Common Variants Associated with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder Using Pleiotropy-Informed Conditional False Discovery Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Ole A.; Thompson, Wesley K.; Schork, Andrew J.; Ripke, Stephan; Mattingsdal, Morten; Kelsoe, John R.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; O'Donovan, Michael C.; Rujescu, Dan; Werge, Thomas; Sklar, Pamela; Roddey, J. Cooper; Chen, Chi-Hua; McEvoy, Linda; Desikan, Rahul S.; Djurovic, Srdjan; Dale, Anders M.

    2013-01-01

    Several lines of evidence suggest that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have the potential to explain more of the “missing heritability” of common complex phenotypes. However, reliable methods to identify a larger proportion of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that impact disease risk are currently lacking. Here, we use a genetic pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate (FDR) method on GWAS summary statistics data to identify new loci associated with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorders (BD), two highly heritable disorders with significant missing heritability. Epidemiological and clinical evidence suggest similar disease characteristics and overlapping genes between SCZ and BD. Here, we computed conditional Q–Q curves of data from the Psychiatric Genome Consortium (SCZ; n = 9,379 cases and n = 7,736 controls; BD: n = 6,990 cases and n = 4,820 controls) to show enrichment of SNPs associated with SCZ as a function of association with BD and vice versa with a corresponding reduction in FDR. Applying the conditional FDR method, we identified 58 loci associated with SCZ and 35 loci associated with BD below the conditional FDR level of 0.05. Of these, 14 loci were associated with both SCZ and BD (conjunction FDR). Together, these findings show the feasibility of genetic pleiotropy-informed methods to improve gene discovery in SCZ and BD and indicate overlapping genetic mechanisms between these two disorders. PMID:23637625

  7. Mortality and life expectancy in persons with severe unipolar depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Musliner, Katherine L; Benros, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is a common psychiatric disorder, with a lifetime prevalence of 10-15% in the Danish population. Although depression is associated with excess mortality, it is not yet understood how this affects life expectancy. Our aim was to examine mortality rates and life expectancy...... in patients with unipolar depression compared to the general population, and to assess the impact of comorbid somatic illness and substance abuse. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort from 1995-2013 (N=5,103,699). The cohort included all residents in Denmark during the study period. Mortality...... rate ratios (MRRs) and life expectancy in persons with unipolar depression were calculated using survival analysis techniques. RESULTS: The overall MRR was 2.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.05-2.09) in people with a previous unipolar depression diagnosis compared to the general Danish population...

  8. Get the gist? The effects of processing depth on false recognition in short-term and long-term memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flegal, Kristin E; Reuter-Lorenz, Patricia A

    2014-07-01

    Gist-based processing has been proposed to account for robust false memories in the converging-associates task. The deep-encoding processes known to enhance verbatim memory also strengthen gist memory and increase distortions of long-term memory (LTM). Recent research has demonstrated that compelling false memory illusions are relatively delay-invariant, also occurring under canonical short-term memory (STM) conditions. To investigate the contributions of gist to false memory at short and long delays, processing depth was manipulated as participants encoded lists of four semantically related words and were probed immediately, following a filled 3- to 4-s retention interval, or approximately 20 min later, in a surprise recognition test. In two experiments, the encoding manipulation dissociated STM and LTM on the frequency, but not the phenomenology, of false memory. Deep encoding at STM increases false recognition rates at LTM, but confidence ratings and remember/know judgments are similar across delays and do not differ as a function of processing depth. These results suggest that some shared and some unique processes underlie false memory illusions at short and long delays.

  9. The method of expected number of deaths, 1786-1886-1986.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiding, N

    1987-04-01

    "The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

  10. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  11. False Negative Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy Results in Primary Thyroid Lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, In Joong; Kim, Eun Kyung; Koh, Myoung Ju; Kwak, Jin Young; Moon, Hee Jung [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    Ultrasonography-guided fine needle aspiration biopsy (US-FNA) is one of the methods used to diagnose thyroid lymphoma, but it has a relatively high false-negative rate. The authors report a case of a primary thyroid lymphoma associated with underlying lymphocytic thyroiditis that was initially misdiagnosed as lymphocytic thyroiditis based on US-FNA findings

  12. Effect of gravity on false-vacuum decay rates for O(4)-symmetric bubble nucleation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samuel, D.A.; Hiscock, W.A.

    1991-01-01

    The self-gravity of quantum fields is often considered to be a negligible perturbation upon a background spacetime and not of much physical interest. Its importance is determined by the ratio of the mass of the field to the Planck mass, this ratio being very small for those fields that we are most familiar in dealing with. However, it is conceivable that either in the very early Universe or even today a false-vacuum decay could occur associated with a field of appreciable mass. The effect of self-gravity upon false-vacuum decay was initially studied within the ''thin-wall'' approximation by Coleman and De Luccia. Their analysis involved the approximate solution of the coupled Euclideanized field and Einstein equations with the assumption of O(4)-symmetric bubble nucleation. In this paper we consider the range of validity of the ''thin-wall'' approximation by comparing the Coleman--De Luccia results with exact numerical results for a quartic polynomial potential. We also extend the analysis into regimes for which the ''thin-wall'' approximation is inapplicable. In the case of an initially de Sitter space decaying into Minkowski space, we find a smooth transition between the Coleman--De Luccia mode of bubble formation and the Hawking-Moss transition, wherein the entire spacetime tunnels ''at once'' to the maximum of the potential. In the case of the decay of an initially Minkowski space to an anti--de Sitter space, we find that there is a ''forbidden region'' of vacuum potential parameters for which decay is not possible. At energies far below the Planck scale, the boundary of this region is accurately described by the thin-wall prediction obtained by Coleman and De Luccia. At energies near the Planck scale, however, the actual ''forbidden region'' is significantly smaller than predicted by the thin-wall approximation; thus, vacuum decays are possible which appear to be forbidden by thin-wall calculations

  13. Blind sequential lineup administration reduces both false identifications and confidence in those false identifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charman, Steve D; Quiroz, Vanessa

    2016-10-01

    One of the most recommended procedures proposed by eyewitness experts is the use of double-blind lineups, in which the administrator does not know the identity of the suspect in the lineup. But despite the near universality of this recommendation, there is surprisingly little empirical research to support the claim that nonblind administration inflates false identifications. What little research has been conducted has shown conflicting findings with regard to the conditions under which nonblind administration affects false identifications, as well as its effects on witness confidence. The current study attempts to elucidate this effect. Student-participants (n = 312) were randomly assigned to play the role of either a lineup administrator (who were either told the identity of the suspect in the lineup or not) or a mock crime witness. Following unbiased instructions, administrators presented either a target-present or target-absent sequential lineup to the witness while being surreptitiously videorecorded. Nonblind administration significantly inflated false, but not correct, identifications, and significantly inflated witness confidence in those false identifications. Video recordings indicated that nonblind administrators were significantly more likely than blind administrators to smile (a) while the witness was viewing a photograph of the suspect, and (b) after a suspect identification. Results provide stronger support for the use of blind lineup administration by broadening the conditions under which nonblind administration is shown to inflate false identifications. Possible reconciliations for conflicting findings in the literature are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  15. 7 CFR 1714.5 - Determination of interest rates on municipal rate loans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Determination of interest rates on municipal rate... General § 1714.5 Determination of interest rates on municipal rate loans. (a) RUS will post on the RUS website, Electric Program HomePage, a schedule of interest rates for municipal rate loans at the beginning...

  16. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  17. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  18. Norwegian Oncologists' Expectations of Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muren, Ludvig P.; Mella, Olav; Hafslund, Rune; Dahl, Olav

    2002-01-01

    Although intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) may increase the therapeutic ratio of radiotherapy for a range of malignancies, only a few IMRT treatments have yet been performed in the Nordic countries. The scores derived from a national survey to assess Norwegian oncologists' expectations of IMRT are presented. A questionnaire was distributed to all consultants in oncology at Norwegian radiotherapy clinics. Summary scores of daily general radiotherapy workload (DGRTW), acquaintance with IMRT (AI) and expectations of IMRT (EI) were derived. Thirty-nine questionnaires (67%) were returned from a total of 58 oncologists. The oncologists' scores on the AI scale (mean score: 7.5 out of 21) were rather low. Their AI scores were found to be positively correlated with their DGRTW. Higher scores on the EI scale were documented (mean score: 6.2 out of 14): 15 oncologists (39%) rated IMRT as one of the three major contributors to potentially increased cancer survival. Oncologists treating patients with prostate, head and neck, gastrointestinal and CNS tumours had higher EI scores than the other oncologists (7.7 vs. 5.1; p=0.01). The Norwegian radiation oncologists' expectations of IMRT are high in terms of both the potential clinical benefit and the rate of implementation. This should encourage the radiotherapy communities to continue (or rapidly initiate) their efforts in providing the routines required for safe implementation of IMRT

  19. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2016-05-25

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  20. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Zafar, Ammar; Alnuweiri, Hussein; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  1. 'False-positive' and 'false-negative' test results in clinical urine drug testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisfield, Gary M; Goldberger, Bruce A; Bertholf, Roger L

    2009-08-01

    The terms 'false-positive' and 'false-negative' are widely used in discussions of urine drug test (UDT) results. These terms are inadequate because they are used in different ways by physicians and laboratory professionals and they are too narrow to encompass the larger universe of potentially misleading, inappropriate and unexpected drug test results. This larger universe, while not solely comprised of technically 'true' or 'false' positive or negative test results, presents comparable interpretive challenges with corresponding clinical implications. In this review, we propose the terms 'potentially inappropriate' positive or negative test results in reference to UDT results that are ambiguous or unexpected and subject to misinterpretation. Causes of potentially inappropriate positive UDT results include in vivo metabolic conversions of a drug, exposure to nonillicit sources of a drug and laboratory error. Causes of potentially inappropriate negative UDT results include limited assay specificity, absence of drug in the urine, presence of drug in the urine, but below established assay cutoff, specimen manipulation and laboratory error. Clinical UDT interpretation is a complicated task requiring knowledge of recent prescription, over-the-counter and herbal drug administration, drug metabolism and analytical sensitivities and specificities.

  2. Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

  3. Reduced False Memory after Sleep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenn, Kimberly M.; Gallo, David A.; Margoliash, Daniel; Roediger, Henry L., III; Nusbaum, Howard C.

    2009-01-01

    Several studies have shown that sleep contributes to the successful maintenance of previously encoded information. This research has focused exclusively on memory for studied events, as opposed to false memories. Here we report three experiments showing that sleep reduces false memories in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) memory illusion. False…

  4. Can false memory for critical lures occur without conscious awareness of list words?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Daniel D; Sodmont, Sharon M; Keefer, Lucas A

    2018-02-01

    We examined whether the DRM false memory effect can occur when list words are presented below the perceptual identification threshold. In four experiments, subjects showed robust veridical memory for studied words and false memory for critical lures when masked list words were presented at exposure durations of 43 ms per word. Shortening the exposure duration to 29 ms virtually eliminated veridical recognition of studied words and completely eliminated false recognition of critical lures. Subjective visibility ratings in Experiments 3a and 3b support the assumption that words presented at 29 ms were subliminal for most participants, but were occasionally experienced with partial awareness by participants with higher perceptual awareness. Our results indicate that a false memory effect does not occur in the absence of conscious awareness of list words, but it does occur when word stimuli are presented at an intermediate level of visibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Word type effects in false recall: concrete, abstract, and emotion word critical lures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Lisa M; Olheiser, Erik L; Altarriba, Jeanette; Landi, Nicole

    2009-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that definable qualities of verbal stimuli have implications for memory. For example, the distinction between concrete and abstract words has led to the finding that concrete words have an advantage in memory tasks (i.e., the concreteness effect). However, other word types, such as words that label specific human emotions, may also affect memory processes. This study examined the effects of word type on the production of false memories by using a list-learning false memory paradigm. Participants heard lists of words that were highly associated to nonpresented concrete, abstract, or emotion words (i.e., the critical lures) and then engaged in list recall. Emotion word critical lures were falsely recalled at a significantly higher rate (with the effect carried by the positively valenced critical lures) than concrete and abstract critical lures. These findings suggest that the word type variable has implications for our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie recall and false recall.

  6. 5 CFR 531.245 - Computing locality rates and special rates for GM employees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Computing locality rates and special... Gm Employees § 531.245 Computing locality rates and special rates for GM employees. Locality rates and special rates are computed for GM employees in the same manner as locality rates and special rates...

  7. Coincidence of scintigraphic false positive and false negative findings in parathyroid and thyroid adenomas (case report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mana, O.; Zatta, G.; Boccolari, S.; Barbesti, S.; Tarolo, G.L.

    1987-04-01

    The subtractive double tracer scintigraphy with /sup 201/Tl and /sup 99m/Tc is a useful technique in studying parathyroid nodules; nevertheless, this method can give misleading informations especially in presence of thyroid nodules with false positive and false negative findings. In this case report the technique was applied in studying a patient with three nodules (two thyroid adenomas and one parathyroid adenoma), where both scintigraphic and echographic methods provided misleading informations. The selective uptake of /sup 201/Tl in the upper region of the right thyroid lobe gave a false positive finding, while the increased uptake of /sup 99m/Tc in a hyperfunctioning thyroid adenoma of left lobe masked the parathyroid adenoma laying below, giving a false negative finding.

  8. Theta-band phase locking of orbitofrontal neurons during reward expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wingerden, M.; Vinck, M.; Lankelma, J.; Pennartz, C.M.A.

    2010-01-01

    The expectancy of a rewarding outcome following actions and cues is coded by a network of brain structures including the orbitofrontal cortex. Thus far, predicted reward was considered to be coded by time-averaged spike rates of neurons. However, besides firing rate, the precise timing of action

  9. The effect of cognitive load on hemispheric asymmetries in true and false memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tat, Michael J; Azuma, Tamiko

    2016-01-01

    Studies examining hemispheric asymmetries in false memory have shown that the right hemisphere (RH) is more susceptible to false memories compared to the left hemisphere (LH). Theories suggest that hemispheric asymmetries in true and false memory may be due to differences in representational coding and the use of top-down mechanisms in each hemisphere. In the current study, the Deese-Roediger-McDermott false memory paradigm was used in conjunction with divided visual field presentation to examine the role of top-down mechanisms in hemispheric asymmetries of true and false memory. In Experiment 1, participants studied lists of related words while completing secondary cognitive load tasks. In Experiment 2, the secondary tasks were administered during memory retrieval instead of memory encoding. Results revealed that cognitive loads imposed during the study phase influenced veridical memory in the LH more than the RH, but cognitive loads imposed during retrieval did not influence veridical memory in either hemisphere. Surprisingly, false memory rates were not influenced by cognitive loads and were higher in the LH. These data provide evidence that, at least for veridical memory, top-down control mechanisms are used more readily for the encoding of information into memory in the LH compared to the RH.

  10. Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2008-01-01

    When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...... of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread....

  11. WHAT INFLUENCES STUDENTS' EXPECTATIONS IN WHAT REGARDS GRADES?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mare Codruta

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available After a period of studying a certain subject, students form an opinion about it and begin having certain expectations. These expectations and the degree in which, in the end, they fulfil, contribute to the reputation of the university. Consequently, a continuous evaluation of the quality of the educational process is needed. The present research presents a part of a more complex study made on a sample of master students in Audit and Financial Management in Romania. The goal was to evidence the main factors that affect students' expectations in what regards the grades they will obtain at the end of the semester. For this, a questionnaire of 20 questions was applied to 250 such students. After factor reduction procedures were applied, six most significant variables were kept in the analysis: the proportion of knowledge acquired, the perceived level of utility of the discipline in the professional career of the student, the proportion in which the subject could contribute to getting employed in the field it belongs to, the evaluation method and two variables evaluating through grades the didactic performance during the course and the overall performance of the tenure professor. The influence of these variables upon the grade expected by the student was assessed with the help of the OLS regression, both in the simple and multiple forms. Out of the six hypotheses formulated, only one proved to be false based on the simple regression analysis. When individually assessed, the evaluation method announced by the teacher at the beginning of the semester turned out to have no statistically significant influence upon students' expectations. For the rest of the variables, results were according to the assumptions made, i.e. all determine in a significant positive manner the students' opinion about the grade they will get. We have also constructed the multiple regression models. When putting all variables together, the significance changes. The level of

  12. 15 CFR 700.3 - Priority ratings and rated orders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 15 Commerce and Foreign Trade 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Priority ratings and rated orders. 700.3 Section 700.3 Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued) BUREAU OF INDUSTRY AND SECURITY, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE NATIONAL SECURITY INDUSTRIAL BASE...

  13. Long Maturity Forward Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    The paper aims to improve the knowledge of the empirical properties of the long maturity region of the forward rate curve. Firstly, the theoretical negative correlation between the slope at the long end of the forward rate curve and the term structure variance is recovered empirically and found...... to be statistically significant. Secondly, the expectations hypothesis is analyzed for the long maturity region of the forward rate curve using "forward rate" regressions. The expectations hypothesis is numerically close to being accepted but is statistically rejected. The findings provide mixed support...... for the affine term structure model....

  14. cn.FARMS: a latent variable model to detect copy number variations in microarray data with a low false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Mayr, Andreas; Klambauer, Günter; Tuefferd, Marianne; De Bondt, An; Talloen, Willem; Göhlmann, Hinrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

    2011-07-01

    Cost-effective oligonucleotide genotyping arrays like the Affymetrix SNP 6.0 are still the predominant technique to measure DNA copy number variations (CNVs). However, CNV detection methods for microarrays overestimate both the number and the size of CNV regions and, consequently, suffer from a high false discovery rate (FDR). A high FDR means that many CNVs are wrongly detected and therefore not associated with a disease in a clinical study, though correction for multiple testing takes them into account and thereby decreases the study's discovery power. For controlling the FDR, we propose a probabilistic latent variable model, 'cn.FARMS', which is optimized by a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach. cn.FARMS controls the FDR through the information gain of the posterior over the prior. The prior represents the null hypothesis of copy number 2 for all samples from which the posterior can only deviate by strong and consistent signals in the data. On HapMap data, cn.FARMS clearly outperformed the two most prevalent methods with respect to sensitivity and FDR. The software cn.FARMS is publicly available as a R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnfarms/cnfarms.html.

  15. Fluctuating confidence: the dynamic consequences of true/false affirmatives and denials on how a listener appraises their personal past.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Jolee; Bayantemur, Sharon Y; Seecharan, Sasha; Unger, Leslie D; Hellgren, Johanna; Stone, Charles B

    2018-08-01

    The present study examined the mnemonic consequences of true/false denials and affirmatives on how a listener appraises their personal past. To this end, participants (listeners) rated the extent to which they were confident certain events occurred during their childhood. They rated these events both before and after a confederate (speaker) denied or affirmed the occurrence of four different childhood events each, for a total of eight "rehearsed" events. For each set (denials and affirmatives) of events, half were true and half were false. In turn, this created four types of events (two each): true denials, true affirmatives, false denials, and false affirmatives. Additionally, half of the participants were told that the speaker was provided independent information about the veracity of the event's occurrence ("expert" condition). Overall, listeners were less confident in the occurrence of false denial events, but more so when they believed the speaker to be more knowledgeable of the listeners memories, more confident in false affirmative events and, counter intuitively, more confident in the occurrence of true denial events. These results underscore the importance of a nuanced approach to the mnemonic consequences of true and false denials and affirmations in the course of social interactions.

  16. 39 CFR 3010.25 - Limitation on unused rate adjustment authority rate adjustments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... only be applied together with inflation-based limitation rate adjustments or when inflation-based... used in lieu of an inflation-based limitation rate adjustment. ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Limitation on unused rate adjustment authority...

  17. False Positives in Exoplanet Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuquire, Jacob; Kasper, David; Jang-Condell, Hannah; Kar, Aman; Sorber, Rebecca; Suhaimi, Afiq; KELT (Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope)

    2018-06-01

    Our team at the University of Wyoming uses a 0.6 m telescope at RBO (Red Buttes Observatory) to help confirm results on potential exoplanet candidates from low resolution, wide field surveys shared by the KELT (Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope) team. False positives are common in this work. We carry out transit photometry, and this method comes with special types of false positives. The most common false positive seen at the confirmation level is an EB (eclipsing binary). Low resolution images are great in detecting multiple sources for photometric dips in light curves, but they lack the precision to decipher single targets at an accurate level. For example, target star KC18C030621 needed RBO’s photometric precision to determine there was a nearby EB causing exoplanet type light curves. Identifying false positives with our telescope is important work because it helps eliminate the waste of time taken by more expensive telescopes trying to rule out negative candidate stars. It also furthers the identification of other types of photometric events, like eclipsing binaries, so they can be studied on their own.

  18. Detecting false positive sequence homology: a machine learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, M Stanley; Suvorov, Anton; Jensen, Nicholas O; Clement, Mark J; Bybee, Seth M

    2016-02-24

    Accurate detection of homologous relationships of biological sequences (DNA or amino acid) amongst organisms is an important and often difficult task that is essential to various evolutionary studies, ranging from building phylogenies to predicting functional gene annotations. There are many existing heuristic tools, most commonly based on bidirectional BLAST searches that are used to identify homologous genes and combine them into two fundamentally distinct classes: orthologs and paralogs. Due to only using heuristic filtering based on significance score cutoffs and having no cluster post-processing tools available, these methods can often produce multiple clusters constituting unrelated (non-homologous) sequences. Therefore sequencing data extracted from incomplete genome/transcriptome assemblies originated from low coverage sequencing or produced by de novo processes without a reference genome are susceptible to high false positive rates of homology detection. In this paper we develop biologically informative features that can be extracted from multiple sequence alignments of putative homologous genes (orthologs and paralogs) and further utilized in context of guided experimentation to verify false positive outcomes. We demonstrate that our machine learning method trained on both known homology clusters obtained from OrthoDB and randomly generated sequence alignments (non-homologs), successfully determines apparent false positives inferred by heuristic algorithms especially among proteomes recovered from low-coverage RNA-seq data. Almost ~42 % and ~25 % of predicted putative homologies by InParanoid and HaMStR respectively were classified as false positives on experimental data set. Our process increases the quality of output from other clustering algorithms by providing a novel post-processing method that is both fast and efficient at removing low quality clusters of putative homologous genes recovered by heuristic-based approaches.

  19. Disagreement in expectations and the credibility of monetary authorities in the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano Vereda Oliveira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in expectations regarding the future values of these variables. It also investigates the driving factors of disagreement, paying special attention to the influence of monetary authorities’ credibility. An extensive regression analysis shows that the levels of the term structures of disagreement are negatively related to the output gap (although this result is not very robust; and that the levels of the term structures of disagreement in expectations about the IPCA inflation rate and the SELIC interest rate have a strong negative relationship with central bankers’ credibility; this relationship is positive in the case of the growth rate of industrial production.

  20. Instructor Reputation: An Expectancy Relationship Involving Student Ratings and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Raymond P.

    1979-01-01

    Instructor expressiveness and lecture content were combined with instructor reputation in a 2 X 2 X 2 factorial design to assess interaction effects. Results indicated that reputation interacted with expressiveness but not content, in which students rated positive, high-expressive instructors more favorably than negative, high-expressive…

  1. The Effect of Self-Referential Expectation on Emotional Face Processing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mel McKendrick

    Full Text Available The role of self-relevance has been somewhat neglected in static face processing paradigms but may be important in understanding how emotional faces impact on attention, cognition and affect. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of self-relevant primes on processing emotional composite faces. Sentence primes created an expectation of the emotion of the face before sad, happy, neutral or composite face photos were viewed. Eye movements were recorded and subsequent responses measured the cognitive and affective impact of the emotion expressed. Results indicated that primes did not guide attention, but impacted on judgments of valence intensity and self-esteem ratings. Negative self-relevant primes led to the most negative self-esteem ratings, although the effect of the prime was qualified by salient facial features. Self-relevant expectations about the emotion of a face and subsequent attention to a face that is congruent with these expectations strengthened the affective impact of viewing the face.

  2. On the susceptibility of adaptive memory to false memory illusions

    OpenAIRE

    Howe, M. L.; Derbish, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has shown that survival-related processing of word lists enhances retention for that material. However, the claim that survival-related memories are more accurate has only been examined when true recall and recognition of neutral material has been measured. In the current experiments, we examined the adaptive memory superiority effect for different types of processing and material, measuring accuracy more directly by comparing true and false recollection rates. Survival-rela...

  3. Priming analogical reasoning with false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Garner, Sarah R; Threadgold, Emma; Ball, Linden J

    2015-08-01

    Like true memories, false memories are capable of priming answers to insight-based problems. Recent research has attempted to extend this paradigm to more advanced problem-solving tasks, including those involving verbal analogical reasoning. However, these experiments are constrained inasmuch as problem solutions could be generated via spreading activation mechanisms (much like false memories themselves) rather than using complex reasoning processes. In three experiments we examined false memory priming of complex analogical reasoning tasks in the absence of simple semantic associations. In Experiment 1, we demonstrated the robustness of false memory priming in analogical reasoning when backward associative strength among the problem terms was eliminated. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we extended these findings by demonstrating priming on newly created homonym analogies that can only be solved by inhibiting semantic associations within the analogy. Overall, the findings of the present experiments provide evidence that the efficacy of false memory priming extends to complex analogical reasoning problems.

  4. False traumatic aneurysms and arteriovenous fistulas: retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidovic, Lazar B; Banzić, Igor; Rich, Norman; Dragaš, Marko; Cvetkovic, Slobodan D; Dimic, Andrija

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the incidence, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of false traumatic aneurysms and arteriovenous fistulas as well as the outcomes of the patients. A retrospective, 16-year survey has been conducted regarding the cases of patients who underwent surgery for false traumatic aneurysms (FTA) of arteries and traumatic arteriovenous fistulas (TAVF). Patients with iatrogenic AV fistulas and iatrogenic false aneurysms were excluded from the study. There were 36 patients with TAVF and 47 with FTA. In all, 73 (87.95%) were male, and 10 (12.05%) were female, with an average age of 36.93 years (13-82 years). In 25 (29.76%) cases TAVF and FTA appeared combat-related, and 59 (70.24%) were in noncombatants. The average of all intervals between the injury and surgery was 919. 8 days (1 day to 41 years) for FTA and 396.6 days (1 day to 9 years) for TAVF. Most of the patients in both groups were surgically treated during the first 30 days after injury. One patient died on the fourth postoperative day. There were two early complications. The early patency rate was 83.34%, and limb salvage was 100%. There were no recurrent AV fistulas that required additional operations. Because of their history of severe complications, FTA and TAV fistulas require prompt treatment. The treatment is simpler if there is only a short interval between the injury and the operation. Surgical endovascular repair is mostly indicated.

  5. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  6. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  7. False memory ≠ false memory: DRM errors are unrelated to the misinformation effect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Ost

    Full Text Available The DRM method has proved to be a popular and powerful, if controversial, way to study 'false memories'. One reason for the controversy is that the extent to which the DRM effect generalises to other kinds of memory error has been neither satisfactorily established nor subject to much empirical attention. In the present paper we contribute data to this ongoing debate. One hundred and twenty participants took part in a standard misinformation effect experiment, in which they watched some CCTV footage, were exposed to misleading post-event information about events depicted in the footage, and then completed free recall and recognition tests. Participants also completed a DRM test as an ostensibly unrelated filler task. Despite obtaining robust misinformation and DRM effects, there were no correlations between a broad range of misinformation and DRM effect measures (mean r  = -.01. This was not due to reliability issues with our measures or a lack of power. Thus DRM 'false memories' and misinformation effect 'false memories' do not appear to be equivalent.

  8. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  9. Motivation and expectancy influences in placebo responding: the mediating role of attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aigner, Carrie; Svanum, Soren

    2014-12-01

    Drawing upon research in perception and motivation, the current study proposes a motivation-attention model of placebo in which more motivated persons pay greater attention to placebo-related stimuli, directly influencing placebo response. We manipulated both motivation to respond to placebo and expectations of placebo response in a 2 × 2 design. Participants (N = 152) evaluated a series of placebo pheromones (slightly scented water) of potential romantic dates and made desirability ratings. Consistent with hypotheses, more highly motivated participants demonstrated greater placebo responses, as evidenced by higher desirability ratings of the "pheromone" and greater variability among ratings, when compared to less motivated participants. Moreover, the relation between motivation and placebo response was mediated by attention. Contrary to expectations, we found no effect for expectancy. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and the mediating factor of attention in placebo and support goal-oriented models of placebo. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

  10. False alarm reduction in BSN-based cardiac monitoring using signal quality and activity type information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanantong, Tanatorn; Nantajeewarawat, Ekawit; Thiemjarus, Surapa

    2015-02-09

    False alarms in cardiac monitoring affect the quality of medical care, impacting on both patients and healthcare providers. In continuous cardiac monitoring using wireless Body Sensor Networks (BSNs), the quality of ECG signals can be deteriorated owing to several factors, e.g., noises, low battery power, and network transmission problems, often resulting in high false alarm rates. In addition, body movements occurring from activities of daily living (ADLs) can also create false alarms. This paper presents a two-phase framework for false arrhythmia alarm reduction in continuous cardiac monitoring, using signals from an ECG sensor and a 3D accelerometer. In the first phase, classification models constructed using machine learning algorithms are used for labeling input signals. ECG signals are labeled with heartbeat types and signal quality levels, while 3D acceleration signals are labeled with ADL types. In the second phase, a rule-based expert system is used for combining classification results in order to determine whether arrhythmia alarms should be accepted or suppressed. The proposed framework was validated on datasets acquired using BSNs and the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. For the BSN dataset, acceleration and ECG signals were collected from 10 young and 10 elderly subjects while they were performing ADLs. The framework reduced the false alarm rate from 9.58% to 1.43% in our experimental study, showing that it can potentially assist physicians in diagnosing a vast amount of data acquired from wireless sensors and enhance the performance of continuous cardiac monitoring.

  11. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  12. Is it wise to protect false targets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a system consisting of genuine elements and false targets that cannot be distinguished by the attacker's observation. The false targets can be destroyed with much less effort than the genuine elements. We show that even when an attacker cannot distinguish between the genuine elements and the false targets, in many cases it can enhance the attack efficiency using a double attack strategy in which it tries first to eliminate with minimal effort as many false targets as possible in the first attack and then distributes its entire remaining resource among all surviving targets in the second attack. The model for evaluating the system vulnerability in the double attack is suggested for a single genuine element, and multiple genuine elements configured in parallel or in series. This model assumes that in both attacks the attacking resource is distributed evenly among the attacked targets. The defender can optimize its limited resource distribution between deploying more false targets and protecting them better. The attacker can optimize its limited resource distribution between two attacks. The defense strategy is analyzed based on a two period minmax game. A numerical procedure is suggested that allows the defender to find the optimal resource distribution between deploying and protecting the false targets. The methodology of optimal attack and defense strategies analysis is demonstrated. It is shown that protecting the false targets may reduce the efficiency of the double attack strategy and make this strategy ineffective in situations with low contest intensity and few false targets. - Highlights: ► The efficiency of the double attack tactics against using false targets is analyzed. ► The role of the false target protection in system survivability enhancement is shown. ► The resource distribution between deploying more false targets and protecting them better is optimized. ► Both series and parallel systems are considered.

  13. Need for Cognition and False Memory: Can One's Natural Processing Style Be Manipulated by External Factors?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wootan, Samantha S; Leding, Juliana K

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this experiment was to provide an enhanced understanding of need for cognition (NFC) and its influence on one's memory accuracy. People who are high in NFC tend to put more cognitive effort into their mental processes than their low-NFC counterparts. To determine whether one's natural processing tendencies, as determined by NFC, can be influenced by external factors, manipulations to levels of processing were added. Participants viewed word lists from the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm and were instructed to process half of the DRM lists deeply and the other half shallowly. After all the lists were presented, participants completed 3 successive recall tests. The deep processing condition produced higher rates of false memories for both NFC groups than the shallow processing condition. In addition, the high-NFC group produced higher rates of target recall in both the deep and shallow conditions than the low-NFC group. However, the high-NFC group also produced higher rates of false recall for the shallowly processed lists. These data indicate that high-NFC people exhibit enhanced target recall for word lists, which may come at the expense of overall accuracy due to the increase of false recall.

  14. Reducing false positives of microcalcification detection systems by removal of breast arterial calcifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mordang, Jan-Jurre; Gubern-Mérida, Albert; Karssemeijer, Nico; Heeten, Gerard den

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: In the past decades, computer-aided detection (CADe) systems have been developed to aid screening radiologists in the detection of malignant microcalcifications. These systems are useful to avoid perceptual oversights and can increase the radiologists’ detection rate. However, due to the high number of false positives marked by these CADe systems, they are not yet suitable as an independent reader. Breast arterial calcifications (BACs) are one of the most frequent false positives marked by CADe systems. In this study, a method is proposed for the elimination of BACs as positive findings. Removal of these false positives will increase the performance of the CADe system in finding malignant microcalcifications. Methods: A multistage method is proposed for the removal of BAC findings. The first stage consists of a microcalcification candidate selection, segmentation and grouping of the microcalcifications, and classification to remove obvious false positives. In the second stage, a case-based selection is applied where cases are selected which contain BACs. In the final stage, BACs are removed from the selected cases. The BACs removal stage consists of a GentleBoost classifier trained on microcalcification features describing their shape, topology, and texture. Additionally, novel features are introduced to discriminate BACs from other positive findings. Results: The CADe system was evaluated with and without BACs removal. Here, both systems were applied on a validation set containing 1088 cases of which 95 cases contained malignant microcalcifications. After bootstrapping, free-response receiver operating characteristics and receiver operating characteristics analyses were carried out. Performance between the two systems was compared at 0.98 and 0.95 specificity. At a specificity of 0.98, the sensitivity increased from 37% to 52% and the sensitivity increased from 62% up to 76% at a specificity of 0.95. Partial areas under the curve in the specificity

  15. Reducing false positives of microcalcification detection systems by removal of breast arterial calcifications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mordang, Jan-Jurre, E-mail: Jan-Jurre.Mordang@radboudumc.nl; Gubern-Mérida, Albert; Karssemeijer, Nico [Diagnostic Image Analysis Group, Department of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Radboud University Medical Center, Nijmegen 6525 GA (Netherlands); Heeten, Gerard den [The National Training Centre for Breast Cancer Screening, Nijmegen 6503 GJ, The Netherlands and Department of Radiology, Amsterdam Medical Center, Amsterdam 1100 DD (Netherlands)

    2016-04-15

    Purpose: In the past decades, computer-aided detection (CADe) systems have been developed to aid screening radiologists in the detection of malignant microcalcifications. These systems are useful to avoid perceptual oversights and can increase the radiologists’ detection rate. However, due to the high number of false positives marked by these CADe systems, they are not yet suitable as an independent reader. Breast arterial calcifications (BACs) are one of the most frequent false positives marked by CADe systems. In this study, a method is proposed for the elimination of BACs as positive findings. Removal of these false positives will increase the performance of the CADe system in finding malignant microcalcifications. Methods: A multistage method is proposed for the removal of BAC findings. The first stage consists of a microcalcification candidate selection, segmentation and grouping of the microcalcifications, and classification to remove obvious false positives. In the second stage, a case-based selection is applied where cases are selected which contain BACs. In the final stage, BACs are removed from the selected cases. The BACs removal stage consists of a GentleBoost classifier trained on microcalcification features describing their shape, topology, and texture. Additionally, novel features are introduced to discriminate BACs from other positive findings. Results: The CADe system was evaluated with and without BACs removal. Here, both systems were applied on a validation set containing 1088 cases of which 95 cases contained malignant microcalcifications. After bootstrapping, free-response receiver operating characteristics and receiver operating characteristics analyses were carried out. Performance between the two systems was compared at 0.98 and 0.95 specificity. At a specificity of 0.98, the sensitivity increased from 37% to 52% and the sensitivity increased from 62% up to 76% at a specificity of 0.95. Partial areas under the curve in the specificity

  16. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  17. Projected life expectancy of people with HIV according to timing of diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Lodwick, Rebecca K; Smith, Colette J

    2012-01-01

    positive in 2010. The effect of altering the diagnosis rate was investigated. Results: Assuming a high rate of HIV diagnosis (median CD4 cell count at diagnosis, 432¿cells/µl), projected median age at death (life expectancy) was 75.0 years. This implies 7.0 years of life were lost on average due to HIV......Background and objectives: Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has contributed greatly toward survival for people with HIV, yet many remain undiagnosed until very late. Our aims were to estimate the life expectancy of an HIV-infected MSM living in a developed country with extensive access to ART...... and healthcare, and to assess the effect of late diagnosis on life expectancy. Methods: A stochastic computer simulation model of HIV infection and the effect of ART was used to estimate life expectancy and determine the distribution of potential lifetime outcomes of an MSM, aged 30 years, who becomes HIV...

  18. A Weakest Pre-Expectation Semantics for Mixed-Sign Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Kaminski, Benjamin Lucien; Katoen, Joost-Pieter

    2017-01-01

    We present a weakest-precondition-style calculus for reasoning about the expected values (pre-expectations) of \\emph{mixed-sign unbounded} random variables after execution of a probabilistic program. The semantics of a while-loop is well-defined as the limit of iteratively applying a functional to a zero-element just as in the traditional weakest pre-expectation calculus, even though a standard least fixed point argument is not applicable in this context. A striking feature of our semantics i...

  19. Associations between Urban Sprawl and Life Expectancy in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Hamidi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  20. Associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi, Shima; Ewing, Reid; Tatalovich, Zaria; Grace, James B.; Berrigan, David

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  1. Associations between Urban Sprawl and Life Expectancy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi, Shima; Ewing, Reid; Tatalovich, Zaria; Grace, James B; Berrigan, David

    2018-04-26

    In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  2. Semantic priming, not repetition priming, is to blame for false hearing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Chad S

    2017-08-01

    Contextual and sensory information are combined in speech perception. Conflict between the two can lead to false hearing, defined as a high-confidence misidentification of a spoken word. Rogers, Jacoby, and Sommers (Psychology and Aging, 27(1), 33-45, 2012) found that older adults are more susceptible to false hearing than are young adults, using a combination of semantic priming and repetition priming to create context. In this study, the type of context (repetition vs. sematic priming) responsible for false hearing was examined. Older and young adult participants read and listened to a list of paired associates (e.g., ROW-BOAT) and were told to remember the pairs for a later memory test. Following the memory test, participants identified words masked in noise that were preceded by a cue word in the clear. Targets were semantically associated to the cue (e.g., ROW-BOAT), unrelated to the cue (e.g., JAW-PASS), or phonologically related to a semantic associate of the cue (e.g., ROW-GOAT). How often each cue word and its paired associate were presented prior to the memory test was manipulated (0, 3, or 5 times) to test effects of repetition priming. Results showed repetitions had no effect on rates of context-based listening or false hearing. However, repetition did significantly increase sensory information as a basis for metacognitive judgments in young and older adults. This pattern suggests that semantic priming dominates as the basis for false hearing and highlights context and sensory information operating as qualitatively different bases for listening and metacognition.

  3. Caesarean section rates and adverse neonatal outcomes after induction of labour versus expectant management in women with an unripe cervix : a secondary analysis of the HYPITAT and DIGITAT trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernardes, T. P.; Broekhuijsen, K.; Koopmans, C. M.; Boers, K. E.; van Wyk, L.; Tajik, P.; van Pampus, M. G.; Scherjon, S. A.; Mol, B. W.; Franssen, M. T.; Berg, van den P. P.; Groen, Henk

    Objective To evaluate caesarean section and adverse neonatal outcome rates after induction of labour or expectant management in women with an unripe cervix at or near term. Design Secondary analysis of data from two randomised clinical trials. Setting Data were collected in two nationwide Dutch

  4. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    -dimensional integrals required in the EM algorithm are estimated using MCMC sampling. The MCMC sampler requires simulation of sample paths from a continuous time Markov process, conditional on the beginning and ending states and the paths of the neighboring sites. An exact path sampling algorithm is developed......The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor......-dependent substitution models are analytically intractable and must be analyzed using either approximate or simulation-based methods. We describe statistical inference of neighbor-dependent models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCMC-EM) algorithm. In the MCMC-EM algorithm, the high...

  5. Alcohol Primes, Expectancies, and the Working Self-Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Joshua A.; Schlegel, Rebecca J.; Friedman, Ronald S.; McCarthy, Denis M.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has shown that alcohol consumption can lead to momentary changes in the self-concept (e.g., Steele & Josephs, 1990). In two studies (n = 150), we examined whether the implicit activation of alcohol expectancies (i.e., sociability-related expectancies) would also lead to changes in self-perception. To test this idea, participants first completed a measure of sociability-related alcohol expectancies. In a subsequent laboratory session, participants were exposed to either alcohol-related primes (i.e., pictures or words associated with alcohol) or neutral primes. After the priming task, participants completed an ostensibly unrelated self-concept survey that contained words related to sociability (e.g., “outgoing”) and non-sociability related words (e.g., “clever”). For both studies, results revealed that sociability-related alcohol expectancies were positively associated with sociability-related self-concept ratings for participants exposed to alcohol primes, but not for participants exposed to the neutral primes. Implications for the role implicit self-concept activation may have on drinking behaviors are discussed. PMID:19769437

  6. Systemic True False

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

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    ):. (a). (b). (c). (d). Answer: True systemics are (b & c); False Systemics (a & d). For more examples, see (10 and 11). Na2O2. NaCl. Na. HCl heat /excess. (O). 300°C electrolysis. (molten). NaOH. NaCl. Na. HCl. H2O electrolysis. (solution). NaCl.

  7. On minimizing assignment errors and the trade-off between false positives and negatives in parentage analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.

    2013-11-04

    Genetic parentage analyses provide a practical means with which to identify parent-offspring relationships in the wild. In Harrison et al.\\'s study (2013a), we compare three methods of parentage analysis and showed that the number and diversity of microsatellite loci were the most important factors defining the accuracy of assignments. Our simulations revealed that an exclusion-Bayes theorem method was more susceptible to false-positive and false-negative assignments than other methods tested. Here, we analyse and discuss the trade-off between type I and type II errors in parentage analyses. We show that controlling for false-positive assignments, without reporting type II errors, can be misleading. Our findings illustrate the need to estimate and report both the rate of false-positive and false-negative assignments in parentage analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. On minimizing assignment errors and the trade-off between false positives and negatives in parentage analysis

    KAUST Repository

    Harrison, Hugo B.; Saenz Agudelo, Pablo; Planes, Serge; Jones, Geoffrey P.; Berumen, Michael L.

    2013-01-01

    Genetic parentage analyses provide a practical means with which to identify parent-offspring relationships in the wild. In Harrison et al.'s study (2013a), we compare three methods of parentage analysis and showed that the number and diversity of microsatellite loci were the most important factors defining the accuracy of assignments. Our simulations revealed that an exclusion-Bayes theorem method was more susceptible to false-positive and false-negative assignments than other methods tested. Here, we analyse and discuss the trade-off between type I and type II errors in parentage analyses. We show that controlling for false-positive assignments, without reporting type II errors, can be misleading. Our findings illustrate the need to estimate and report both the rate of false-positive and false-negative assignments in parentage analyses. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Šimpach

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

  10. Feasibility of Tidal and Ocean Current Energy in False Pass, Aleutian Islands, Alaska final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wright, Bruce Albert [Aleutian Pribilof Islands Association, Inc., Anchorage, AK (United States)

    2014-05-07

    , the Project Team developed a conceptual tidal energy project design utilizing ORPC’s TidGen® Power System. While the Project Team has not committed to ORPC technology for future development of a False Pass project, this conceptual design was critical to informing the Project’s economic analysis. The results showed that power from a tidal energy project could be provided to the City of False at a rate at or below the cost of diesel generated electricity and sold to commercial customers at rates competitive with current market rates, providing a stable, flat priced, environmentally sound alternative to the diesel generation currently utilized for energy in the community. The Project Team concluded that with additional grants and private investment a tidal energy project at False Pass is well-positioned to be the first tidal energy project to be developed in Alaska, and the first tidal energy project to be interconnected to an isolated micro grid in the world. A viable project will be a model for similar projects in coastal Alaska.

  11. Sleep loss produces false memories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Diekelmann

    Full Text Available People sometimes claim with high confidence to remember events that in fact never happened, typically due to strong semantic associations with actually encoded events. Sleep is known to provide optimal neurobiological conditions for consolidation of memories for long-term storage, whereas sleep deprivation acutely impairs retrieval of stored memories. Here, focusing on the role of sleep-related memory processes, we tested whether false memories can be created (a as enduring memory representations due to a consolidation-associated reorganization of new memory representations during post-learning sleep and/or (b as an acute retrieval-related phenomenon induced by sleep deprivation at memory testing. According to the Deese, Roediger, McDermott (DRM false memory paradigm, subjects learned lists of semantically associated words (e.g., "night", "dark", "coal",..., lacking the strongest common associate or theme word (here: "black". Subjects either slept or stayed awake immediately after learning, and they were either sleep deprived or not at recognition testing 9, 33, or 44 hours after learning. Sleep deprivation at retrieval, but not sleep following learning, critically enhanced false memories of theme words. This effect was abolished by caffeine administration prior to retrieval, indicating that adenosinergic mechanisms can contribute to the generation of false memories associated with sleep loss.

  12. Expectation values of the e+Li system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2004-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + Li are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1200 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + Li energy was -7.532 895 5 hartree which has a binding energy of 0.002 482 hartree against dissociation into Ps+Li + . The 2γ annihilation rate for the spin singlet state was 6.996x10 9 s -1 . The annihilation rate for the triplet state, taking into account core annihilation and the 3γ decay, was 9.36x10 6 s -1

  13. A mega-analysis of memory reports from eight peer-reviewed false memory implantation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoboria, Alan; Wade, Kimberley A; Lindsay, D Stephen; Azad, Tanjeem; Strange, Deryn; Ost, James; Hyman, Ira E

    2017-02-01

    Understanding that suggestive practices can promote false beliefs and false memories for childhood events is important in many settings (e.g., psychotherapeutic, medical, and legal). The generalisability of findings from memory implantation studies has been questioned due to variability in estimates across studies. Such variability is partly due to false memories having been operationalised differently across studies and to differences in memory induction techniques. We explored ways of defining false memory based on memory science and developed a reliable coding system that we applied to reports from eight published implantation studies (N = 423). Independent raters coded transcripts using seven criteria: accepting the suggestion, elaboration beyond the suggestion, imagery, coherence, emotion, memory statements, and not rejecting the suggestion. Using this scheme, 30.4% of cases were classified as false memories and another 23% were classified as having accepted the event to some degree. When the suggestion included self-relevant information, an imagination procedure, and was not accompanied by a photo depicting the event, the memory formation rate was 46.1%. Our research demonstrates a useful procedure for systematically combining data that are not amenable to meta-analysis, and provides the most valid estimate of false memory formation and associated moderating factors within the implantation literature to date.

  14. False memories in social anxiety disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PRISCILA DE CAMARGO PALMA

    Full Text Available Abstract Background False memories are memories of events that never occurred or that occurred, but not exactly as we recall. Events with emotional content are subject to false memories production similar to neutral events. However, individual differences, such as the level of maladjustment and emotional instability characteristics of Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD, may interfere in the production of false memories. Objectives This study aimed to assess the effect of emotion in memory performance for an event witnessed by participants with and without SAD. Methods Participants were 61 young adults with SAD and 76 without any symptoms of SAD who were randomly assigned to watch a story with or without emotional arousal. Participants answered a subjective scale of emotion about the story and a recognition memory test. Results Participants with SAD recovered more true memories and more false memories for the non-emotional version compared to the emotional version of the story. Overall, participants with SAD produced fewer false memories compared to those without SAD. Discussion This finding suggests that social anxiety may have a significant impact on emotional memory accuracy, which may assist in the development and improvement of techniques for therapeutic intervention.

  15. Attitude Importance and the False Consensus Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrigar, Leandre R.; Krosnick, Jon A.

    1995-01-01

    Explores the possibility that importance may regulate the magnitude of the false consensus effect. Analysis revealed a strong false consensus effect but no reliable relation between its magnitude and attitude importance. Results contradict assumptions that the false consensus effect arises from attitudes that directly or indirectly influence…

  16. False Alarm Reduction in BSN-Based Cardiac Monitoring Using Signal Quality and Activity Type Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanatorn Tanantong

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available False alarms in cardiac monitoring affect the quality of medical care, impacting on both patients and healthcare providers. In continuous cardiac monitoring using wireless Body Sensor Networks (BSNs, the quality of ECG signals can be deteriorated owing to several factors, e.g., noises, low battery power, and network transmission problems, often resulting in high false alarm rates. In addition, body movements occurring from activities of daily living (ADLs can also create false alarms. This paper presents a two-phase framework for false arrhythmia alarm reduction in continuous cardiac monitoring, using signals from an ECG sensor and a 3D accelerometer. In the first phase, classification models constructed using machine learning algorithms are used for labeling input signals. ECG signals are labeled with heartbeat types and signal quality levels, while 3D acceleration signals are labeled with ADL types. In the second phase, a rule-based expert system is used for combining classification results in order to determine whether arrhythmia alarms should be accepted or suppressed. The proposed framework was validated on datasets acquired using BSNs and the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. For the BSN dataset, acceleration and ECG signals were collected from 10 young and 10 elderly subjects while they were performing ADLs. The framework reduced the false alarm rate from 9.58% to 1.43% in our experimental study, showing that it can potentially assist physicians in diagnosing a vast amount of data acquired from wireless sensors and enhance the performance of continuous cardiac monitoring.

  17. Trust-based prayer expectancies and health among older Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Neal; Hayward, R David

    2014-04-01

    This study assesses the health-related effects of trust-based prayer expectancies, which reflect the belief that God answers prayers at the right time and in the best way. The following relationships are evaluated in our conceptual model: (1) older Mexican Americans who attend worship services more often tend to develop a closer relationship with God; (2) people who feel close to God will be more likely to develop trust-based prayer expectancies; (3) people who endorse trust-based prayer expectancies will have greater feelings of self-esteem; and (4) higher self-esteem is associated with better self-rated health. The data support each of these relationships.

  18. Current management of inguinal false aneurysms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houlind, Kim; Jepsen, Jørn M; Saicu, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    False aneurysms are formed as a result of bleeding causing a hematoma to compress the surrounding tissue. The majority of false aneurysms presenting to the vascular surgeon are caused by iatrogenic injury to an artery. Although anastomotic failure occurs, a much higher number is caused by bleeding...... vessels. endovascular treatment with coils or covered stent grafts have proven useful in infected ilio-femoral false aneurysms. Open surgical repair may be the best treatment in the setting of imminent rupture, massive haematoma and skin necrosis. We present three patient cases treated with open surgery...

  19. "Hook-like effect" causes false-negative point-of-care urine pregnancy testing in emergency patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffey, Richard T; Trent, Caleb J; Bavolek, Rebecca A; Keeperman, Jacob B; Sampson, Christopher; Poirier, Robert F

    2013-01-01

    Failure to detect pregnancy in the emergency department (ED) can have important consequences. Urine human chorionic gonadotropin (uhCG) point-of-care (POC) assays are valued for rapidly detecting early pregnancy with high sensitivity. However, under certain conditions, POC uhCG tests can fail to detect pregnancy. In investigating a series of late first-trimester false-negative pregnancy tests in our ED, a novel and distinct causative phenomenon was recently elucidated in our institution. We discuss uhCG POC tests, review our false-negative rate, and describe mechanisms for false negatives and potential remedies. The false-negative POC uhCG rate is very low, but in the setting of a large volume of tests, the numbers are worth consideration. In positive uhCG POC tests, free and fixed antibodies bind hCG to form a "sandwich"; hCG is present in several variant forms that change in their concentrations at different stages of pregnancy. When in excess, intact hCG can saturate the antibodies, preventing sandwich formation (hook effect phenomenon). Some assays may include an antibody that does not recognize certain variants present in later stages of pregnancy. When this variant is in excess, it can bind one antibody avidly and the other not at all, resulting in a false-negative test (hook-like phenomenon). In both situations, dilution is key to an accurate test. Manufacturers should consider that uhCG tests are routinely used at many stages of pregnancy. Characterizing uhCG variants recognized by their tests and eliminating lot-to-lot variability may help improve uhCG test performance. Clinicians need to be aware of and familiarize themselves with the limitations of the specific type of uhCG POC tests used in their practice, recognizing that under certain circumstances, false-negative tests can occur. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Reducing false positives of microcalcification detection systems by removal of breast arterial calcifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mordang, Jan-Jurre; Gubern-Mérida, Albert; den Heeten, Gerard; Karssemeijer, Nico

    2016-04-01

    In the past decades, computer-aided detection (CADe) systems have been developed to aid screening radiologists in the detection of malignant microcalcifications. These systems are useful to avoid perceptual oversights and can increase the radiologists' detection rate. However, due to the high number of false positives marked by these CADe systems, they are not yet suitable as an independent reader. Breast arterial calcifications (BACs) are one of the most frequent false positives marked by CADe systems. In this study, a method is proposed for the elimination of BACs as positive findings. Removal of these false positives will increase the performance of the CADe system in finding malignant microcalcifications. A multistage method is proposed for the removal of BAC findings. The first stage consists of a microcalcification candidate selection, segmentation and grouping of the microcalcifications, and classification to remove obvious false positives. In the second stage, a case-based selection is applied where cases are selected which contain BACs. In the final stage, BACs are removed from the selected cases. The BACs removal stage consists of a GentleBoost classifier trained on microcalcification features describing their shape, topology, and texture. Additionally, novel features are introduced to discriminate BACs from other positive findings. The CADe system was evaluated with and without BACs removal. Here, both systems were applied on a validation set containing 1088 cases of which 95 cases contained malignant microcalcifications. After bootstrapping, free-response receiver operating characteristics and receiver operating characteristics analyses were carried out. Performance between the two systems was compared at 0.98 and 0.95 specificity. At a specificity of 0.98, the sensitivity increased from 37% to 52% and the sensitivity increased from 62% up to 76% at a specificity of 0.95. Partial areas under the curve in the specificity range of 0.8-1.0 were

  1. An Expectancy Theory Motivation Approach to Peer Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Barry A.; Cox, Pamela L.; Maher, Larry E.

    2008-01-01

    Group projects are an important component of higher education, and the use of peer assessment of students' individual contributions to group projects has increased. The researchers employed an expectancy theory approach and an experimental design in a field setting to investigate conditions that influence students' motivation to rate their peers'…

  2. 25 CFR 103.32 - What sort of loan documentation does BIA expect the lender to maintain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... other documentation of efforts to liquidate loan collateral; and (i) Originals or copies, as appropriate... 25 Indians 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What sort of loan documentation does BIA expect the... FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES LOAN GUARANTY, INSURANCE, AND INTEREST SUBSIDY Loan Servicing Requirements § 103.32...

  3. False vacuum decay in quantum mechanics and four dimensional scalar field theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bezuglov, Maxim

    2018-04-01

    When the Higgs boson was discovered in 2012 it was realized that electroweak vacuum may suffer a possible metastability on the Planck scale and can eventually decay. To understand this problem it is important to have reliable predictions for the vacuum decay rate within the framework of quantum field theory. For now, it can only be done at one loop level, which is apparently is not enough. The aim of this work is to develop a technique for the calculation of two and higher order radiative corrections to the false vacuum decay rate in the framework of four dimensional scalar quantum field theory and then apply it to the case of the Standard Model. To achieve this goal, we first start from the case of d=1 dimensional QFT i.e. quantum mechanics. We show that for some potentials two and three loop corrections can be very important and must be taken into account. Next, we use quantum mechanical example as a template for the general d=4 dimensional theory. In it we are concentrating on the calculations of bounce solution and corresponding Green function in so called thin wall approximation. The obtained Green function is then used as a main ingredient for the calculation of two loop radiative corrections to the false vacuum decay rate.

  4. Explaining the Development of False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Holliday, Robyn; Marche, Tammy

    2002-01-01

    Reviews explanatory dimensions of children's false memory relevant to forensic practice: measurement, development, social factors, individual differences, varieties of memories and memory judgments, and varieties of procedures inducing false memories. Asserts that recent studies fail to use techniques that separate acquiescence from memory…

  5. Elevated false recognition in patients with frontal lobe damage is neither a general nor a unitary phenomenon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verfaellie, Mieke; Rapcsak, Steven Z; Keane, Margaret M; Alexander, Michael P

    2004-01-01

    This study examined verbal recognition memory in amnesic patients with frontal lesions (AF), nonamnesic patients with frontal lesions (NAF), and amnesic patients with medial temporal lesions (MT). To examine susceptibility to false alarms, the number of studied words drawn from various categories was varied. The AF and MT groups demonstrated reduced hits and increased false alarms. False alarms were especially elevated when item-specific recollection was strongest in control participants. The NAF group performed indistinguishably from control participants, but several patients showed excessive false alarms in the context of normal hit rates. These patients exhibited impaired monitoring and verification processes. The findings demonstrate that elevated false recognition is not characteristic of all frontal patients and may result from more than 1 underlying mechanism. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

  6. Emotions and false memories: valence or arousal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corson, Yves; Verrier, Nadège

    2007-03-01

    The effects of mood on false memories have not been studied systematically until recently. Some results seem to indicate that negative mood may reduce false recall and thus suggest an influence of emotional valence on false memory. The present research tested the effects of both valence and arousal on recall and recognition and indicates that the effect is actually due to arousal. In fact, whether participants' mood is positive, negative, or neutral, false memories are significantly more frequent under conditions of high arousal than under conditions of low arousal.

  7. Elucidating the neural correlates of related false memories using a systematic measure of perceptual relatedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Indira C; Dennis, Nancy A

    2017-02-01

    Previous memory research has exploited the perceptual similarities between lures and targets in order to evoke false memories. Nevertheless, while some studies have attempted to use lures that are objectively more similar than others, no study has systematically controlled for perceptual overlap between target and lure items and its role in accounting for false alarm rates or the neural processes underlying such perceptual false memories. The current study looked to fill this gap in the literature by using a face-morphing program to systematically control for the amount of perceptual overlap between lures and targets. Our results converge with previous studies in finding a pattern of differences between true and false memories. Most importantly, expanding upon this work, parametric analyses showed false memory activity increases with respect to the similarity between lures and targets within bilateral middle temporal gyri and right medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). Moreover, this pattern of activation was unique to false memories and could not be accounted for by relatedness alone. Connectivity analyses further find that activity in the mPFC and left middle temporal gyrus co-vary, suggestive of gist-based monitoring within the context of false memories. Interestingly, neither the MTL nor the fusiform face area exhibited modulation as a function of target-lure relatedness. Overall, these results provide insight into the processes underlying false memories and further enhance our understanding of the role perceptual similarity plays in supporting false memories. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Mental Rotation in False Belief Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiushu; Cheung, Him; Shen, Manqiong; Wang, Ruiming

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the spontaneous use of embodied egocentric transformation (EET) in understanding false beliefs in the minds of others. EET involves the participants mentally transforming or rotating themselves into the orientation of an agent when trying to adopt his or her visuospatial perspective. We argue that psychological perspective taking such as false belief reasoning may also involve EET because of what has been widely reported in the embodied cognition literature, showing that our processing of abstract, propositional information is often grounded in concrete bodily sensations which are not apparently linked to higher cognition. In Experiment 1, an agent placed a ball into one of two boxes and left. The ball then rolled out and moved either into the other box (new box) or back into the original one (old box). The participants were to decide from which box they themselves or the agent would try to recover the ball. Results showed that false belief performance was affected by increased orientation disparity between the participants and the agent, suggesting involvement of embodied transformation. In Experiment 2, false belief was similarly induced and the participants were to decide if the agent would try to recover the ball in one specific box. Orientation disparity was again found to affect false belief performance. The present results extend previous findings on EET in visuospatial perspective taking and suggest that false belief reasoning, which is a kind of psychological perspective taking, can also involve embodied rotation, consistent with the embodied cognition view. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  9. When representations conflict with reality: the preschooler's problem with false beliefs and "false" photographs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, D

    1990-04-01

    It has been argued that young preschoolers cannot correctly attribute a false belief to a deceived actor (Wimmer & Perner, 1983). Some researchers claim that the problem lies in the child's inadequate epistemology (Chandler & Boyes, 1982; Wellman, 1988); as such, it is specific to the child's theory of mind and no such problem should appear in reasoning about nonmental representations. This prediction is tested below in the "false photograph" task: here an actor takes a photograph of an object in location X; the object is then moved to location Y. Preschool subjects are asked: "In the picture, where is the object?" Results indicate that photographs are no easier to reason about than are beliefs. Manipulations to boost performance on the photograph task proved ineffective. Further, an explanation of the failure as a processing limitation having nothing to do with the representational nature of beliefs or photographs was ruled out. It is argued that young children's failure on the false belief task is not due to an inadequate epistemology (though they may have one) and is symptomatic of a larger problem with representations.

  10. Remedies by competitors for false advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, B D; Wilcox, D P

    1990-05-01

    Patients who are victimized as a consequence of false medical advertising are not the only ones who can sue for damages. Under section 43(a) of the Lanham Act, effective November 17, 1989, anyone "who believes that he or she is or is likely to be damaged" by deceptive advertising may bring a civil action for damages (1). Competing physicians may sue other physicians who falsely advertise that they possess unique skills and achieve better results than other physicians because they employ exclusive methods of treatment or claim that certain surgical procedures they perform in the office are absolutely safe and without risk or who advertise false professional credentials to lure patients. Voluntary informed consent excludes the use of deceit. Misrepresentation through advertising deprives a patient of the right to exercise an informed consent (2). A patient who relies on a doctor's false advertising in agreeing to a procedure that causes the patient injury may sue for malpractice even if the procedure was performed without negligence. False medical advertising also exposes the advertiser to litigation by competitors for unfair competition. This article is concerned with the remedy that may be available for instituting private litigation against physicians and other health care providers who engage in untruthful advertising.

  11. Proposal for the award of an industrial support contract for paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    2006-01-01

    This document concerns the award of a contract for paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN. The Finance Committee is invited to agree to the negotiation of a contract with the firm PREZIOSO (FR), the lowest bidder, for the provision of paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN for a period of three years for a total amount not exceeding 538 419 euros (830 381 Swiss francs), not subject to revision for the first two years. The contract will include options for two one-year extensions beyond the initial threeyear period.

  12. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  13. Genre of Music and Lyrical Content: Expectation Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Mary E; Dodson, Alan R; Bazzini, Doris G

    1999-12-01

    This study was designed to examine whether people's expectations differ regarding how music lyrics affect individual behavior as a function of music genre. Because legislative attention and media publicity have been biased against certain types of popular music (i.e., heavy metal and rap), the authors expected that those genres of music would be viewed more negatively than other genres of popular music, for which there has been little or no negative publicity (i.e., pop and country). Participants (N = 160 college students) rated their perceptions of how the lyrical content of a song would affect listeners' behavior. The authors presented prosocial or antisocial lyrical passages to students (N = 160) under the guise of four musical genres (heavy metal, rap, pop, and country). Participants rated the potential impact of the lyrics on listeners' behavior. Findings indicated that lyrics labeled as heavy metal or rap were perceived as less likely to inspire prosocial behavior but not more likely to inspire antisocial behavior than the same lyrics labeled as country or pop.

  14. Can False Memories Prime Problem Solutions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.; Garner, Sarah R.; Dewhurst, Stephen A.; Ball, Linden J.

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that false memories can prime performance on related implicit and explicit memory tasks. The present research examined whether false memories can also be used to prime higher order cognitive processes, namely, insight-based problem solving. Participants were asked to solve a number of compound remote associate task…

  15. Aggression-related alcohol expectancies and barroom aggression among construction tradespeople.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinkiewicz, Lucy; Smith, Georgia; Burn, Michele; Litherland, Steven; Wells, Samantha; Graham, Kathryn; Miller, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Few studies have investigated the relationship of barroom aggression with both general and barroom-specific alcohol expectancies. The present study investigated these associations in a rarely studied and high-risk population: construction tradespeople. Male construction tradespeople (n = 211) aged 18-35 years (M = 21.91, SD = 4.08 years) participated in a face-to-face questionnaire assessing general and barroom-specific alcohol expectancies and perpetration of physical and verbal barroom aggression as well as control variables, age, alcohol consumption and trait aggression. Sequential logistic regression analyses revealed that general alcohol-aggression expectancies of courage or dominance were not predictive of either verbal or physical barroom aggression after controlling for age, alcohol consumption and trait aggression. However, barroom-specific alcohol expectancies were associated with both verbal and physical barroom aggression, with positive associations found for expected hyper-emotionality and protective effects for expected cognitive impairment. In a population where rates of risky drinking and barroom aggression are high, specific expectations about the effects of drinking in bars may influence subsequent aggressive behaviour in bars. [Zinkiewicz L, Smith G, Burn M, Litherland S, Wells S, Graham K, Miller P. Aggression-related alcohol expectancies and barroom aggression among construction tradespeople. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:549-556]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  16. Consequences of a false-positive mammography result

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Euler-Chelpin, My; Bæksted, Christina; Vejborg, Ilse

    2016-01-01

    group used anxiolytic and antidepressant drugs. There was no difference in use of beta blockers. Hormone therapy was used more frequently by the false-positive, 36.6% versus 28.7%. The proportion of women using anxiolytic and antidepressant drugs increased with 19% from the before to the after period...... in the false-positive group, and with 16% in the normal group, resulting in an RRR of 1.02 (95% CI 0.92-1.14). RRR was 1.03 for beta blockers, 0.97 for hormone therapy. Conclusion(s): Drugs used to mitigate mood disorders were used more frequently by women with false-positive than by women with normal......Background: Previous research showed women experiencing false-positive mammograms to have greater anxiety about breast cancer than women with normal mammograms. To elucidate psychological effects of false-positive mammograms, we studied impact on drug intake.  Methods: We calculated the ratio...

  17. Rapid induction of false memory for pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Yana; Shanks, David R

    2010-07-01

    Recognition of pictures is typically extremely accurate, and it is thus unclear whether the reconstructive nature of memory can yield substantial false recognition of highly individuated stimuli. A procedure for the rapid induction of false memories for distinctive colour photographs is proposed. Participants studied a set of object pictures followed by a list of words naming those objects, but embedded in the list were names of unseen objects. When subsequently shown full colour pictures of these unseen objects, participants consistently claimed that they had seen them, while discriminating with high accuracy between studied pictures and new pictures whose names did not appear in the misleading word list. These false memories can be reported with high confidence as well as the feeling of recollection. This new procedure allows the investigation of factors that influence false memory reports with ecologically valid stimuli and of the similarities and differences between true and false memories.

  18. When are false-positive and false-negative 18F'FDG PET scans really false?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binns, D.S.; Hicks, R.J.; Fawcett, M.E.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: A 61-year-old male presented with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the base of tongue. In the absence of wider metastatic disease on conventional staging, he was enrolled in a phase I, dose escalation chemoradiotherapy trial. In this study, therapeutic response to radiotherapy combined with cisplatin and a chemotherapeutic agent which specifically targets hypoxic cells (tirapazamine) was evaluated with serial 18 F-FDG PET scans. Baseline 18 F-FDG PET confirmed locally advanced disease, although a previously undetected lower cervical lymph node was identified and included in the radiotherapy portal. Whole-body PET revealed a small metabolically active area adjacent to the right hemidiaphragm. Respiratory gated, high-resolution helical CT failed to find structural evidence of disease and, as a result, the patient was enrolled in the 7 week therapy regime on the assumption that the PET finding was a false-positive result. Repeat 18 F-FDG PET scans at the middle, end and 12 weeks post-treatment showed excellent therapeutic response in the head and neck which was discordant with clinical and CT findings, and resolution of the metabolically active chest lesion. Despite the negative PET scan, persistent clinical and CT evidence of a residual tumour mass suggested a false-negative result and resulted in a neck lymph node dissection. This showed no evidence of malignant cells. Five months following treatment, the patient presented with pleural effusion at the base on the right lung. Subsequent CT scanning showed a small pleural lesion at the site of initial 18 F-FDG uptake. Biopsy confirmed metastatic disease. The apparent transient resolution of 18 F-FDG uptake in the pleural lesion with treatment presumably reflected a combination of reduced metabolic activity and size due to the partial, but not complete, cytotoxic effects of cisplatin. In conclusion, this case emphasizes the importance of pathological review and clinical follow-up in reconciling

  19. Reduction of false positives in the detection of architectural distortion in mammograms by using a geometrically constrained phase portrait model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayres, Fabio J.; Rangayyan, Rangaraj M.

    2007-01-01

    Objective One of the commonly missed signs of breast cancer is architectural distortion. We have developed techniques for the detection of architectural distortion in mammograms, based on the analysis of oriented texture through the application of Gabor filters and a linear phase portrait model. In this paper, we propose constraining the shape of the general phase portrait model as a means to reduce the false-positive rate in the detection of architectural distortion. Material and methods The methods were tested with one set of 19 cases of architectural distortion and 41 normal mammograms, and with another set of 37 cases of architectural distortion. Results Sensitivity rates of 84% with 4.5 false positives per image and 81% with 10 false positives per image were obtained for the two sets of images. Conclusion The adoption of a constrained phase portrait model with a symmetric matrix and the incorporation of its condition number in the analysis resulted in a reduction in the false-positive rate in the detection of architectural distortion. The proposed techniques, dedicated for the detection and localization of architectural distortion, should lead to efficient detection of early signs of breast cancer. (orig.)

  20. Global Trends in Life Expectancy: A Club Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Lehmijoki

    2009-01-01

    Excluding the HIV prevalence rate from the threshold candidates re-allocates a considerable number of the members of the High AIDS club, indicating that incomes, literacy, and fertility are unable to predict AIDS completely. The similarity of economic and demographic conditions in the Low Literacy and High AIDS clubs, however, raises concerns about life expectancy convergence in the future.

  1. Chronically ill patients’ expectations of therapeutic education and their health locus of control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Anna Basińska

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Background Beliefs as cognitive components of personality indicate what we consider as true or false and help us to answer questions concerning others, the world surrounding us and situations that we encounter. Beliefs about the health locus of control and their relations with expectations pertaining to therapeutic education seem to be of vital importance in the case of occurrence of a chronic illness. The aim of this paper is to verify whether expectations concerning therapeutic education in chronically ill patients demonstrate a relation with beliefs about the health locus of control and whether they vary according to gender, age and health, and to present the results of research that applies the Polish OE-15 scale for the evaluation of therapeutic education expectations depending on the health condition. Participants and procedure Two hundred and ninety-one persons were examined, including 180 patients and 111 healthy controls (the control group, 187 women and 104 men. The average age of subjects was 45.71 (SD = 13.51 years, ranging from 21 to 80 years. The OE-15 Therapeutic Education Expectations Scale and the Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale in versions relevant for patients and healthy controls as well as demographics were used. Results Age, gender and beliefs about the health locus of control are related to expectations of therapeutic education. Conclusions When providing therapeutic education for chronically ill patients, one should assess their expectations and pay attention to patients’ beliefs about the health locus of control.

  2. Combined roentgenoultrasonic diagnosis of false pancreatic cysts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubrov, Eh.Ya.; Beresneva, Eh.A.; Chervonenkis, A.V.; Morozova, N.A.

    1986-01-01

    X-ray and ultrasound semiotics of false pancreatic cysts in 21 patients have been described. Such a study proves to be highly informative permitting early detection of false pancreatic cysts and observation of the stages of their formation and development of complications. The ultrasound method has advantages for the investigation of patients in early time of false cyst formation and provides an opportunity to detect formations of minimum sizes

  3. Do negative screening test results cause false reassurance? A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Grace C; Harvie, Michelle N; French, David P

    2017-11-01

    It has been suggested that receiving a negative screening test result may cause false reassurance or have a 'certificate of health effect'. False reassurance in those receiving a negative screening test result may result in them wrongly believing themselves to be at lower risk of the disease, and consequently less likely to engage in health-related behaviours that would lower their risk. The present systematic review aimed to identify the evidence regarding false reassurance effects due to negative screening test results in adults (over 18 years) screened for the presence of a disease or its precursors, where disease or precursors are linked to lifestyle behaviours. MEDLINE and PsycINFO were searched for trials that compared a group who had received negative screening results to an unscreened control group. The following outcomes were considered as markers of false reassurance: perceived risk of disease; anxiety and worry about disease; health-related behaviours or intention to change health-related behaviours (i.e., smoking, diet, physical activity, and alcohol consumption); self-rated health status. Nine unique studies were identified, reporting 55 measures in relation to the outcomes considered. Outcomes were measured at various time points from immediately following screening to up to 11 years after screening. Despite considerable variation in outcome measures used and timing of measurements, effect sizes for comparisons between participants who received negative screening test results and control participants were typically small with few statistically significant differences. There was evidence of high risk of bias, and measures of behaviours employed were often not valid. The limited evidence base provided little evidence of false reassurance following a negative screening test results on any of four outcomes examined. False reassurance should not be considered a significant harm of screening, but further research is warranted. Statement of contribution

  4. Characterisation of false-positive observations in botanical surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quentin J. Groom

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Errors in botanical surveying are a common problem. The presence of a species is easily overlooked, leading to false-absences; while misidentifications and other mistakes lead to false-positive observations. While it is common knowledge that these errors occur, there are few data that can be used to quantify and describe these errors. Here we characterise false-positive errors for a controlled set of surveys conducted as part of a field identification test of botanical skill. Surveys were conducted at sites with a verified list of vascular plant species. The candidates were asked to list all the species they could identify in a defined botanically rich area. They were told beforehand that their final score would be the sum of the correct species they listed, but false-positive errors counted against their overall grade. The number of errors varied considerably between people, some people create a high proportion of false-positive errors, but these are scattered across all skill levels. Therefore, a person’s ability to correctly identify a large number of species is not a safeguard against the generation of false-positive errors. There was no phylogenetic pattern to falsely observed species; however, rare species are more likely to be false-positive as are species from species rich genera. Raising the threshold for the acceptance of an observation reduced false-positive observations dramatically, but at the expense of more false negative errors. False-positive errors are higher in field surveying of plants than many people may appreciate. Greater stringency is required before accepting species as present at a site, particularly for rare species. Combining multiple surveys resolves the problem, but requires a considerable increase in effort to achieve the same sensitivity as a single survey. Therefore, other methods should be used to raise the threshold for the acceptance of a species. For example, digital data input systems that can verify

  5. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  6. Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A.J. Campbell-Pownall (Rachel); C.G. Koedijk (Kees); J.R. Lothian (James); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe review Irving Fisher’s seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation. Like Fisher, we find that the failures of UIP are connected to individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange rate expectations are persistent, but eventually

  7. Evaluation of positive and false-positive results in syphilis screening of blood donors in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandes, V S; Silva, S G C; Motta, I J F; Velarde, L G C; de Castilho, S R

    2017-06-01

    We propose to analyse the positive and false-positive results of treponemal and nontreponemal tests in blood donors from Brazil and to evaluate possible factors associated with the results of treponemal tests. Treponemal tests have been used widely for syphilis screening in blood banks. The introduction of these tests in donor screening has caused an impact and a loss of donors who need to be assessed. This was a retrospective cross-sectional study of syphilis screening and confirmatory test results of blood donors that were obtained before and after adopting a chemiluminescent immunoassay (CLIA). A comparative analysis was performed using a second sample drawn from positive donors. The possible factors associated with CLIA-positive or CLIA-false-positive results were investigated in a subgroup. Statistical tests were used to compare the proportions and adjusted estimates of association. The reactivity rate increased from 1·01% (N = 28 158) to 2·66% (N = 25 577) after introducing the new test. Among Venereal Disease Research Laboratory (VDRL)- and CLIA-confirmed results, the false-positive rates were 40·5% (N = 180) and 37·4% (N = 359), respectively (P = 0·5266). Older donors (OR = 1·04; P = 0·0010) and donors with lower education levels (OR = 6·59; P = 0·0029) were associated with a higher risk of positivity for syphilis. CLIA represents an improvement in blood bank serological screening. However, its use in a healthy population appears to result in high rates of false positives. Identifying which characteristics can predict false positives, however, remains a challenge. © 2017 British Blood Transfusion Society.

  8. Expectant Fathers’ Intuitive Parenting: Associations with Parent Characteristics and Postpartum Positive Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoppe-Sullivan, Sarah J.; Altenburger, Lauren E.; Settle, Theresa A.; Kamp Dush, Claire M.; Sullivan, Jason M.; Bower, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior, its correlates, and its associations with fathers’ postpartum positive engagement. One hundred eighty-two expectant couples completed the Prenatal Lausanne Trilogue Play in the third trimester of pregnancy. Coders rated expectant fathers’ and mothers’ intuitive parenting behavior during this procedure. Expectant parents also completed surveys regarding their psychological and demographic characteristics. At 3 months postpartum, fathers completed time diaries that assessed the time they spent in developmentally appropriate positive engagement activities with their infants. Examination of correlates of expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior revealed that expectant fathers showed lower levels of these behaviors than expectant mothers, that intuitive parenting behavior was moderately positively associated for mothers and fathers, and that individual differences in expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior were associated with parent demographic and psychological characteristics. In particular, expectant fathers showed greater intuitive parenting behavior when they had greater human capital and more progressive beliefs about parent roles, and when their partners had lower parenting self-efficacy. Findings also indicated that expectant fathers’ greater intuitive parenting behavior was predictive of fathers’ greater subsequent engagement in developmentally appropriate activities at 3 months postpartum, but only when expectant mothers demonstrated low levels of intuitive parenting behavior. PMID:25798492

  9. Maternal Expectations for Toddlers' Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Elizabeth J; Buss, Kristin A

    2010-07-03

    OBJECTIVE: Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children's behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers' responses to novel situations. DESIGN: A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers' behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. RESULTS: Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers' observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. CONCLUSIONS: When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers' behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers' expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers' fearful behavior.

  10. Maternal Expectations for Toddlers’ Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2010-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Objective Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children’s behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers’ responses to novel situations. Design A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers’ behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. Results Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers’ observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. Conclusions When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers’ behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers’ expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers’ fearful behavior. PMID:21037974

  11. 47 CFR 65.800 - Rate base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Rate base. 65.800 Section 65.800 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION (CONTINUED) COMMON CARRIER SERVICES (CONTINUED) INTERSTATE RATE OF RETURN PRESCRIPTION PROCEDURES AND METHODOLOGIES Rate Base § 65.800 Rate base. The rate base shall...

  12. The effect of wealth-based anti-expectation behaviors on public cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Le; Chen, Tong; You, Xinshang; Wang, Yongjie

    2018-03-01

    Wealth difference is a common sense in our society. It is unreasonable to assume people have the same capability to donate money to the common pool in public goods game (PGG). Individuals have behavioral expectation towards their neighbors. In this paper, we introduce wealth-based anti-expectation mechanism to explore cooperation. Through numerical simulation results, we are glad to find that the anti-expectation mechanism could stimulate cooperation when the positive effects are equal to or larger than the negative effects from anti-expectation behaviors. Based on this mechanism, we propose propagation mechanism which aims to propagate the positive effects from the poor to inspire more people to choose cooperative strategies. When individuals are tolerant towards defectors, The fraction of cooperators increases with the increment of propagation distance. Enlarging the distance is not wise when individuals are harsh towards defectors. Additionally, we find that the more tolerant towards defectors we are, the higher the cooperation rate is in general. Therefore in PGG, we could consider one's anti-expectation towards others' behaviors and improve cooperation by propagating the poor's anti-expectation effects.

  13. 13 CFR 301.4 - Investment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Investment rates. 301.4 Section... ELIGIBILITY, INVESTMENT RATE AND PROPOSAL AND APPLICATION REQUIREMENTS Investment Rates and Matching Share Requirements § 301.4 Investment rates. (a) Minimum Investment Rate. There is no minimum Investment Rate for a...

  14. False negative rate and other performance measures of a sponge-wipe surface sampling method for low contaminant concentrations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Einfeld, Wayne; Krauter, Paula A.; Boucher, Raymond M.; Tezak, Mathew; Amidan, Brett G. (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA); Piepel, Greg F. (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA)

    2011-05-01

    Recovery of spores from environmental surfaces is known to vary due to sampling methodology, techniques, spore size and characteristics, surface materials, and environmental conditions. A series of tests were performed to evaluate a new, validated sponge-wipe method. Specific factors evaluated were the effects of contaminant concentrations and surface materials on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), limit of detection (LOD) - and the uncertainties of these quantities. Ceramic tile and stainless steel had the highest mean RE values (48.9 and 48.1%, respectively). Faux leather, vinyl tile, and painted wood had mean RE values of 30.3, 25.6, and 25.5, respectively, while plastic had the lowest mean RE (9.8%). Results show a roughly linear dependence of surface roughness on RE, where the smoothest surfaces have the highest mean RE values. REs were not influenced by the low spore concentrations tested (3 x 10{sup -3} to 1.86 CFU/cm{sup 2}). The FNR data were consistent with RE data, showing a trend of smoother surfaces resulting in higher REs and lower FNRs. Stainless steel generally had the lowest mean FNR (0.123) and plastic had the highest mean FNR (0.479). The LOD{sub 90} varied with surface material, from 0.015 CFU/cm{sup 2} on stainless steel up to 0.039 on plastic. Selecting sampling locations on the basis of surface roughness and using roughness to interpret spore recovery data can improve sampling. Further, FNR values, calculated as a function of concentration and surface material, can be used pre-sampling to calculate the numbers of samples for statistical sampling plans with desired performance, and post-sampling to calculate the confidence in characterization and clearance decisions.

  15. Comparison of seven methods for producing Affymetrix expression scores based on False Discovery Rates in disease profiling data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gruber Stephen B

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A critical step in processing oligonucleotide microarray data is combining the information in multiple probes to produce a single number that best captures the expression level of a RNA transcript. Several systematic studies comparing multiple methods for array processing have used tightly controlled calibration data sets as the basis for comparison. Here we compare performances for seven processing methods using two data sets originally collected for disease profiling studies. An emphasis is placed on understanding sensitivity for detecting differentially expressed genes in terms of two key statistical determinants: test statistic variability for non-differentially expressed genes, and test statistic size for truly differentially expressed genes. Results In the two data sets considered here, up to seven-fold variation across the processing methods was found in the number of genes detected at a given false discovery rate (FDR. The best performing methods called up to 90% of the same genes differentially expressed, had less variable test statistics under randomization, and had a greater number of large test statistics in the experimental data. Poor performance of one method was directly tied to a tendency to produce highly variable test statistic values under randomization. Based on an overall measure of performance, two of the seven methods (Dchip and a trimmed mean approach are superior in the two data sets considered here. Two other methods (MAS5 and GCRMA-EB are inferior, while results for the other three methods are mixed. Conclusions Choice of processing method has a major impact on differential expression analysis of microarray data. Previously reported performance analyses using tightly controlled calibration data sets are not highly consistent with results reported here using data from human tissue samples. Performance of array processing methods in disease profiling and other realistic biological studies should be

  16. Application of false discovery rate control in the assessment of decrease of FDG uptake in early Alzheimer dementia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Hye Jin; Jang, Myung Jin; Kang, Won Jun; Lee, Jae Sung; Kang, Eun Joo; Lee, Kang Uk; Woo, Jong In; Lee, Myung Chul; Cho, Sang Soo

    2003-01-01

    Determining an appropriate thresholding is crucial for PDG PET analysis since strong control of Type I error could fail to find pathological differences between early Alzheimer' disease (AD) patients and healthy normal controls. We compared the SPM results on FDG PET imaging of early AD using uncorrected p-value, random-field based corrected p-value and false discovery rate (FDR) control. Twenty-eight patients (66±7 years old) with early AD and 18 age-matched normal controls (68±6 years old) underwent FDG brain PET. To identify brain regions with hypo-metabolism in group or individual patient compared to normal controls, group images or each patient's image was compared with normal controls using the same fixed p-value of 0.001 on uncorrected thresholding, random-field based corrected thresholding and FDR control. The number of hypo-metabolic voxels was smallest in corrected p-value method, largest in uncorrected p-value method and intermediate in FDG thresholding in group analysis. Three types of result pattern were found. The first was that corrected p-value did yield any voxel positive but FDR gave a few significantly hypometabolic voxels (8/28, 29%). The second was that both corrected p-value and FDR did not yield any positive region but numerous positive voxels were found with the threshold of uncorrected p-values (6/28, 21%). The last was that FDR was detected as many positive voxels as uncorrected p-value method (14/28, 50%). Conclusions FDR control could identify hypo-metabolic areas in group or individual patients with early AD. We recommend FDR control instead of uncorrected or random-field corrected thresholding method to find the areas showing hypometabolism especially in small group or individual analysis of FDG PET

  17. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  18. 42 CFR 413.196 - Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Notification of changes in rate-setting... NURSING FACILITIES Payment for End-Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) Services and Organ Procurement Costs § 413.196 Notification of changes in rate-setting methodologies and payment rates. Link to an amendment...

  19. Validation of the Peripheral Ultrasound-guided Vascular Access Rating Scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Primdahl, Stine C.; Weile, Jesper; Clemmesen, Louise

    2018-01-01

    rating scale (P =.029, one-way ANOVA), and the P-UGVA rating scale scores also correlated strongly with the overall performance evaluations (rho=0.87, PPearson correlation). We calculated a pass/fail score of 29, which lead to a theoretical false positive rate of 26.5% and false negative rate of 8...

  20. Student Expectations of Course Content Affect Faculty Evaluations in an Abnormal Psychology Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Frances A.

    1979-01-01

    Describes a study measuring how student expectations of an abnormal psychology course affect their rating of professors. Findings showed a significant impact, especially in relation to popularized topics. Recommends evaluative instruments separating course-related factors from instructor ratings. (CK)

  1. The Relationship between Science Indicator and Life Expectancy in Pioneer Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Moghadami

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ​Background and Objectives : The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between scientific productivity in the field of psychiatry and life expectancy in pioneer countries. Material and Methods : A rigorous search strategy was applied on Scopus database using psychiatry terms. The search results were narrowed to 2000-2012. No language limitation was applied. Life expectancy was extracted from World Bank database using Pearson correlation. Results : The search was led to 27516 articles. The US, England and Germany were identified as leading countries in producing the psychiatry articles, respectively. Pearson correlation test results indicated that there is a direct correlation between scientific products and life expectancy index. In other words, with the increase in producing scientific articles in psychiatry field, life expectancy rises as well. Conclusion : With increase in scientific productivity, life expectancy increases and mortality rate decreases. The results of this study can serve as a guiding document in the field of health and mental health. ​

  2. [Evaluation of performance and false positivity of Mediace RPR test that uses a chemistry autoanalyzer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noh, Jaekwang; Ko, Hak Hyun; Yun, Yeomin; Choi, Young Sook; Lee, Sang Gon; Shin, Sue; Han, Kyou Sup; Song, Eun Young

    2008-08-01

    We evaluated the performance and false positive rate of Mediace RPR test (Sekisui, Japan), a newly introduced nontreponemal test using a chemistry autoanalyzer. The sensitivity of Mediace RPR test was analyzed using sera from 50 patients with syphilis in different stages (8 primary, 7 secondary, and 35 latent), 14 sera positive with fluorescent treponemal antibody absorption (FTA-ABS) IgM, and 74 sera positive with conventional rapid plasma regain (RPR) card test (Asan, Korea) and also positive with Treponema pallidum hemagglutination (TPHA) test or FTA-ABS IgG test. The specificity was analyzed on 108 healthy blood donors. We also performed RPR card test on 302 sera that had been tested positive with Mediace RPR test and also performed TPHA or FTA-ABS IgG test to analyze the false positive rate of Mediace RPR test. A cutoff value of 0.5 R.U. (RPR unit) was used for Mediace RPR test. Mediace RPR test on syphilitic sera of different stages (primary, secondary, and latent stages) and FTA-ABS IgM positive sera showed a sensitivity of 100%, 100%, 82.9% and 100%, respectively. Among the 74 sera positive with conventional RPR card test and TPHA or FTA-ABS IgG test, 55 were positive with Mediace test. The specificity of Mediace RPR test on blood donors was 97.2%. Among the 302 sera positive with Mediace RPR test, 137 sera (45.4%) were negative by RPR card and TPHA/FTA-ABS IgG tests. Although the sensitivities of Mediace RPR were good for primary and secondary syphilis, due to its high negative rate of Mediace RPR over the conventional RPR positive samples, further studies are necessary whether it can replace conventional nontreponemal test for screening purpose. Moreover, in view of the high false positive rate, positive results by Mediace RPR test should be confirmed with treponemal tests.

  3. Adaptive Memory: Survival Processing Increases Both True and False Memory in Adults and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that processing information in a survival context can enhance the information's memorability. The current study examined whether survival processing can also decrease the susceptibility to false memories and whether the survival advantage can be found in children. In Experiment 1, adults rated semantically related words in a…

  4. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  5. 7 CFR 1779.33 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 12 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 1779.33 Section 1779.33 Agriculture... (CONTINUED) WATER AND WASTE DISPOSAL PROGRAMS GUARANTEED LOANS § 1779.33 Interest rates. (a) General. Rates.... Interest rates will be those rates customarily charged borrowers in similar circumstances in the ordinary...

  6. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  7. Are global and regional improvements in life expectancy and in child, adult and senior survival slowing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Hum

    Full Text Available Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health-primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest.

  8. Life expectancy in individuals with type 2 diabetes: implications for annuities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Hermione C; Clarke, Philip M; Gray, Alastair M; Holman, Rury R

    2010-01-01

    Insurance companies often offer people with diabetes ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' at preferential rates, in view of their reduced life expectancy. To assess the appropriateness of ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Patients. There were 4026 subjects with established type 2 diabetes (but not known cardiovascular or other life-threatening diseases) enrolled into the UK Lipids in Diabetes Study. Measurements. Estimated individual life expectancy using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Subjects were a mean (SD) age of 60.7 (8.6) years, had a blood pressure of 141/83 (17/10) mm Hg, total cholesterol level of 4.5 (0.75) mmol/L, HDL cholesterol level of 1.2 (0.29) mmol/L, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) known diabetes duration of 6 (3-11) years, and HbA(1c) of 8.0% (7.2-9.0). Sixty-five percent were male, 91% white, 4% Afro-Caribbean, 5% Indian-Asian, and 15% current smokers. The UKPDS Outcomes Model median (IQR) estimated age at death was 76.6 (73.8-79.5) years compared with 81.6 (79.4-83.2) years, estimated using the UK Government Actuary's Department data for a general population of the same age and gender structure. The median (IQR) difference was 4.3 (2.8-6.1) years, a remaining life expectancy reduction of almost one quarter. The highest value annuity identified, which commences payments immediately for a 60-year-old man with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes investing 100,000, did not reflect this difference, offering 7.4K per year compared with 7.0K per year if not diabetic. The UK Government Actuary's Department data overestimate likely age at death in individuals with type 2 diabetes, and at present, ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates do not provide equity for people with type 2 diabetes. Using a diabetes-specific model to estimate life expectancy could provide valuable information to the annuity industry and permit more equitable annuity rates for those with type 2

  9. Treatment expectations for CAM interventions in pediatric chronic pain patients and their parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsao, Jennie C I; Meldrum, Marcia; Bursch, Brenda; Jacob, Margaret C; Kim, Su C; Zeltzer, Lonnie K

    2005-12-01

    Patient expectations regarding complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) interventions have important implications for treatment adherence, attrition and clinical outcome. Little is known, however, about parent and child treatment expectations regarding CAM approaches for pediatric chronic pain problems. The present study examined ratings of the expected benefits of CAM (i.e. hypnosis, massage, acupuncture, yoga and relaxation) and conventional medicine (i.e. medications, surgery) interventions in 45 children (32 girls; mean age = 13.8 years +/- 2.5) and parents (39 mothers) presenting for treatment at a specialty clinic for chronic pediatric pain. Among children, medications and relaxation were expected to be significantly more helpful than the remaining approaches (P CAM to be fairly low with parents' expectations only somewhat more positive. The current findings suggest that educational efforts directed at enhancing treatment expectations regarding CAM, particularly among children with chronic pain, are warranted.

  10. Early detection of pharmacovigilance signals with automated methods based on false discovery rates: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ismaïl; Thiessard, Frantz; Miremont-Salamé, Ghada; Haramburu, Françoise; Kreft-Jais, Carmen; Bégaud, Bernard; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale

    2012-06-01

    Improving the detection of drug safety signals has led several pharmacovigilance regulatory agencies to incorporate automated quantitative methods into their spontaneous reporting management systems. The three largest worldwide pharmacovigilance databases are routinely screened by the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of proportional reporting ratio (PRR₀₂.₅), the 2.5% quantile of the Information Component (IC₀₂.₅) or the 5% quantile of the Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS₀₅). More recently, Bayesian and non-Bayesian False Discovery Rate (FDR)-based methods were proposed that address the arbitrariness of thresholds and allow for a built-in estimate of the FDR. These methods were also shown through simulation studies to be interesting alternatives to the currently used methods. The objective of this work was twofold. Based on an extensive retrospective study, we compared PRR₀₂.₅, GPS₀₅ and IC₀₂.₅ with two FDR-based methods derived from the Fisher's exact test and the GPS model (GPS(pH0) [posterior probability of the null hypothesis H₀ calculated from the Gamma Poisson Shrinker model]). Secondly, restricting the analysis to GPS(pH0), we aimed to evaluate the added value of using automated signal detection tools compared with 'traditional' methods, i.e. non-automated surveillance operated by pharmacovigilance experts. The analysis was performed sequentially, i.e. every month, and retrospectively on the whole French pharmacovigilance database over the period 1 January 1996-1 July 2002. Evaluation was based on a list of 243 reference signals (RSs) corresponding to investigations launched by the French Pharmacovigilance Technical Committee (PhVTC) during the same period. The comparison of detection methods was made on the basis of the number of RSs detected as well as the time to detection. Results comparing the five automated quantitative methods were in favour of GPS(pH0) in terms of both number of detections of true signals and

  11. Expectations of emotions during testimony: the role of communicator and perceiver characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bederian-Gardner, Daniel; Goldfarb, Deborah

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of communicator (child victim) and perceiver (adult participant) characteristics on expectations about witnesses' emotional displays during testimony. In total, 191 adults were asked whether or not they expected child victims who were testifying about sexual abuse to display sadness, fear, anger, disgust, happiness, or a neutral demeanor, and how intensely the adults expected each emotion to be displayed. In describing the victims, child age (5 vs. 13 years old) and child gender (female vs. male) were factorially combined as within-subject factors. Results included that victim gender predicted expectations of fear, and victim age predicted expectations of anger and disgust. There was a significant interaction of victim age and victim gender for expectations of sadness. Of participants who expected multiple emotions, a combination of negative and neutral emotions was expected more from 13-year-old female victims than from 5-year-old female victims. Child victim empathy predicted ratings of how intensely sad and fearful the child victim would look. Implications of these findings for psychological research and the legal system are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Distinguishing Binders from False Positives by Free Energy Calculations: Fragment Screening Against the Flap Site of HIV Protease

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Molecular docking is a powerful tool used in drug discovery and structural biology for predicting the structures of ligand–receptor complexes. However, the accuracy of docking calculations can be limited by factors such as the neglect of protein reorganization in the scoring function; as a result, ligand screening can produce a high rate of false positive hits. Although absolute binding free energy methods still have difficulty in accurately rank-ordering binders, we believe that they can be fruitfully employed to distinguish binders from nonbinders and reduce the false positive rate. Here we study a set of ligands that dock favorably to a newly discovered, potentially allosteric site on the flap of HIV-1 protease. Fragment binding to this site stabilizes a closed form of protease, which could be exploited for the design of allosteric inhibitors. Twenty-three top-ranked protein–ligand complexes from AutoDock were subject to the free energy screening using two methods, the recently developed binding energy analysis method (BEDAM) and the standard double decoupling method (DDM). Free energy calculations correctly identified most of the false positives (≥83%) and recovered all the confirmed binders. The results show a gap averaging ≥3.7 kcal/mol, separating the binders and the false positives. We present a formula that decomposes the binding free energy into contributions from the receptor conformational macrostates, which provides insights into the roles of different binding modes. Our binding free energy component analysis further suggests that improving the treatment for the desolvation penalty associated with the unfulfilled polar groups could reduce the rate of false positive hits in docking. The current study demonstrates that the combination of docking with free energy methods can be very useful for more accurate ligand screening against valuable drug targets. PMID:25189630

  13. Accurate decisions in an uncertain world: collective cognition increases true positives while decreasing false positives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Max; Kurvers, Ralf H J M; Ward, Ashley J W; Krause, Stefan; Krause, Jens

    2013-04-07

    In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false-positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications.

  14. [Patient expectations about decision-making for various health problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Ana; López-Fernández, Luis Andrés; de Dios Luna, Juan; Saletti Cuesta, Lorena; Gil Garrido, Natalia; Puga González, Almudena

    2010-01-01

    To identify patient expectations of clinical decision-making at consultations with their general practitioners for distinct health problems and to determine the patient and general practitioner characteristics related to these expectations, with special focus on gender. We performed a multicenter cross-sectional study in 360 patients who were interviewed at home. Data on patients' sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and satisfaction were gathered. General practitioners supplied information on their gender and postgraduate training in family medicine. A questionnaire was used to collect data on patients' expectations that their general practitioner account of their opinion and on expectations of clinical decision making> at consultations with their general practitioner for five problems or hypothetical clinical scenarios (strong chest pain/cold with fever/abnormal discharge/depression or sadness/severe family problem). Patients were asked to indicate their preference that decisions on diagnosis and treatment be taken by: a) the general practitioner alone; b) the general practitioner, taking account of the patient's opinion; c) the patient, taking account of the general practitioner's opinion and d) the patient alone. A logistic regression was performed for clinical decision-making. The response rate was 90%. The mean age was 47.3 + or - 16.5 years and 51% were female. Patients' expectations that their general practitioner listen, explain and take account of their opinions were higher than their expectations of participating in decision-making, depending on the problem in question: 32% wished to participate in chest pain and 49% in family problems. Women had lower expectations of participating in depression and family problems. Patients with female general practitioners had higher expectations of participating in family problems and colds. Most patients wished to be listened to, informed and taken into account by their general practitioners and, to a lesser

  15. 27 CFR 70.93 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 27 Alcohol, Tobacco Products and Firearms 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 70.93... Excise and Special (Occupational) Tax Interest § 70.93 Interest rate. (a) In general. The interest rate... annual percentage rate of interest will exceed the prescribed rate of interest. (b) Applicability of...

  16. 7 CFR 3575.33 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 3575.33 Section 3575.33 Agriculture... GENERAL Community Programs Guaranteed Loans § 3575.33 Interest rates. (a) General. Rates will be negotiated between the lender and the borrower. They may be either fixed or variable rates. Interest rates...

  17. False Labor at Term in Singleton Pregnancies: Discharge After a Standardized Assessment and Perinatal Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nelson, David B; McIntire, Donald D; Leveno, Kenneth J

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate perinatal outcomes in women sent home with a diagnosis of false labor at term and assess the time interval to return for delivery. This was a prospective observational cohort study of women at 37 0/7 to 41 6/7 weeks of gestation without pre-existing medical complications who presented to our hospital-based triage unit with symptoms of labor and underwent a standardized evaluation. Women diagnosed as having false labor with a live singleton fetus in cephalic presentation without a prior cesarean delivery and sent home were compared with a group of similar women diagnosed to be in spontaneous labor. Women with hypertension, diabetes, and known fetal malformations were excluded. Using a perinatal composite outcome of respiratory insufficiency, intraventricular hemorrhage, culture-proven sepsis, Apgar score 3 or less at 5 minutes, phototherapy, and perinatal death, we tested the noninferiority of being sent home compared with being admitted for labor. The relationship of cervical dilatation to the time interval from discharge home to delivery was also analyzed. Between October 2012 and March 2016, a total of 3,949 women met inclusion criteria and were diagnosed with false labor, discharged, and returned to deliver, whereas 2,592 similar women were admitted in early labor. The mean interval from discharge to return was 4.9 days. Cesarean delivery rates were not different between the study groups-11% for both (P=.69), and the perinatal composite outcome rates were not significantly different between those sent home and those admitted-3.2% compared with 3.1% (P=.79). Women with more advanced cervical dilatation at discharge returned and delivered significantly earlier than those with less dilatation regardless of parity. Discharge with false labor at term after a standardized assessment in a triage unit was not associated with increased rates of adverse perinatal composite outcomes or cesarean delivery. The time interval to return for delivery was

  18. Effects of sulpiride on true and false memories of thematically related pictures and associated words in healthy volunteers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina V Guarnieri

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Episodic memory, working memory, emotional memory and attention are subject to dopaminergic modulation. However, the potential role of dopamine on the generation of false memories is unknown. This study defined the role of the dopamine D2 receptor on true and false memories. Twenty-four young, healthy volunteers ingested a single dose of placebo or 400 mg oral sulpiride, a dopamine D2-receptor antagonist, just before starting the recognition memory task in a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. The sulpiride group made more false recognitions during visual and verbal processing than the placebo group although both groups had the same indices of true memory. These findings demonstrate that dopamine blockade in healthy volunteers can specifically increase the rate of false recognitions.

  19. Compelling Untruths: Content Borrowing and Vivid False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampinen, James Michael; Meier, Christopher R.; Arnal, Jack D.; Leding, Juliana K.

    2005-01-01

    False memories are sometimes accompanied by surprisingly vivid experiential detail that makes them difficult to distinguish from actual memories. Such strikingly real false memories may be produced by a process called content borrowing in which details from presented items are errantly borrowed to corroborate the occurrence of the false memory…

  20. False elevation of carboxyhemoglobin: case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Shruti; Edmonds, Marcia; Lim, Rodrick K

    2011-02-01

    Carbon monoxide toxicity in infants and children, like adults, produce nonspecific symptoms with normal vital signs necessitating the serum measurement of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb). In infants, the COHb may be falsely elevated. Our goal was to report a case of suspected carbon monoxide toxicity in an infant and the likely cause of the falsely elevated serum COHb. A previously healthy 3-month-old girl presented to the pediatric emergency department (ED) with smoke inhalation from a defective furnace. She was asymptomatic. On examination, she was alert, with Glasgow Coma Scale of 15 and normal vital signs. Cardiorespiratory and neurological examinations were completely normal. Because of concern regarding carbon monoxide poisoning, she was treated with normobaric oxygen therapy. Initial and subsequent serum COHb levels were persistently elevated, despite treatment and the infant appearing clinically well. As such, she had a prolonged stay in the ED. Further investigations found that fetal hemoglobin interferes with the spectrophotometric method used to analyze serum COHb levels. Carboxyhemoglobin serum level, in infants, may be falsely elevated due to the fetal hemoglobin interfering with standard methods of analysis. Knowledge of the false elevation using standard spectrophotometric methods of COHb in clinically well-appearing infants can decrease unnecessary oxygen therapy and monitoring time in the ED.

  1. Estimating the Ex Ante Expected Returns to College

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J. Hussey; Omari H. Swinton

    2011-01-01

    Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distributio...

  2. Resolving the false-negative issues of the nonpolar organic amendment in whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehler, W Tyler; Keough, Michael J; Pettigrove, Vincent

    2018-04-01

    Three common false-negative scenarios have been encountered with amendment addition in whole-sediment toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs): dilution of toxicity by amendment addition (i.e., not toxic enough), not enough amendment present to reduce toxicity (i.e., too toxic), and the amendment itself elicits a toxic response (i.e., secondary amendment effect). One such amendment in which all 3 types of false-negatives have been observed is with the nonpolar organic amendment (activated carbon or powdered coconut charcoal). The objective of the present study was to reduce the likelihood of encountering false-negatives with this amendment and to increase the value of the whole-sediment TIE bioassay. To do this, the present study evaluated the effects of various activated carbon additions to survival, growth, emergence, and mean development rate of Chironomus tepperi. Using this information, an alternative method for this amendment was developed which utilized a combination of multiple amendment addition ratios based on wet weight (1%, lower likelihood of the secondary amendment effect; 5%, higher reduction of contaminant) and nonconventional endpoints (emergence, mean development rate). This alternative method was then validated in the laboratory (using spiked sediments) and with contaminated field sediments. Using these multiple activated carbon ratios in combination with additional endpoints (namely, emergence) reduced the likelihood of all 3 types of false-negatives and provided a more sensitive evaluation of risk. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:1219-1230. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  3. Misattribution, false recognition and the sins of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schacter, D L; Dodson, C S

    2001-09-29

    Memory is sometimes a troublemaker. Schacter has classified memory's transgressions into seven fundamental 'sins': transience, absent-mindedness, blocking, misattribution, suggestibility, bias and persistence. This paper focuses on one memory sin, misattribution, that is implicated in false or illusory recognition of episodes that never occurred. We present data from cognitive, neuropsychological and neuroimaging studies that illuminate aspects of misattribution and false recognition. We first discuss cognitive research examining possible mechanisms of misattribution associated with false recognition. We also consider ways in which false recognition can be reduced or avoided, focusing in particular on the role of distinctive information. We next turn to neuropsychological research concerning patients with amnesia and Alzheimer's disease that reveals conditions under which such patients are less susceptible to false recognition than are healthy controls, thus providing clues about the brain mechanisms that drive false recognition. We then consider neuroimaging studies concerned with the neural correlates of true and false recognition, examining when the two forms of recognition can and cannot be distinguished on the basis of brain activity. Finally, we argue that even though misattribution and other memory sins are annoying and even dangerous, they can also be viewed as by-products of adaptive features of memory.

  4. Expected satiation alone does not predict actual intake of desserts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillocheau, Etienne; Davidenko, Olga; Marsset-Baglieri, Agnès; Darcel, Nicolas; Gaudichon, Claire; Tomé, Daniel; Fromentin, Gilles

    2018-04-01

    The degree to which consumers expect foods to satisfy hunger, referred to as expected satiation, has been reported to predict food intake. Yet this relationship has not been established precisely, at a quantitative level. We sought to explore this relationship in detail by determining whether expected satiation predicts the actual intake of semi-solid desserts. Two separate experiments were performed: the first used variations of a given food (eight apple purées), while the second involved a panel of different foods within a given category (eight desserts). Both experiments studied the consumption of two products assigned to volunteers based on their individual liking and expected satiation ratings, given ad libitum at the end of a standardised meal. A linear model was used to find predictors of food intake and included expected satiation scores, palatability scores, BMI, age, sex, TFEQ-R, TFEQ-D, water consumption during the meal, reported frequency of eating desserts, and reported frequency of consuming tested products as explanatory variables. Expected satiation was a significant predictor of actual food intake in both experiments (apple purée: F(1,97) = 18.60, P desserts: F(1,106) = 9.05, P desserts, on group and on individual level. Our results confirm the importance of expected satiation as a predictor of subsequent food intake, but highlight the need to study individual consumption behaviour and preferences in order to fully understand the role of expected satiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Resident Autonomy in the Operating Room: Expectations Versus Reality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyerson, Shari L; Sternbach, Joel M; Zwischenberger, Joseph B; Bender, Edward M

    2017-09-01

    There is concern about graduating thoracic trainees' independent operative skills due to limited autonomy in training. This study compared faculty and trainee expected levels of autonomy with intraoperative measurements of autonomy for common cardiothoracic operations. Participants underwent frame-of-reference training on the 4-point Zwisch scale of operative autonomy (show and tell → active help → passive help → supervision only) and evaluated autonomy in actual cases using the Zwisch Me!! mobile application. A separate "expected autonomy" survey elicited faculty and resident perceptions of how much autonomy a resident should have for six common operations: decortication, wedge resection, thoracoscopic lobectomy, coronary artery bypass grafting, aortic valve replacement, and mitral valve repair. Thirty-three trainees from 7 institutions submitted evaluations of 596 cases over 18 months (March 2015 to September 2016). Thirty attendings subsequently provided their evaluation of 476 of those cases (79.9% response rate). Expected autonomy surveys were completed by 21 attendings and 19 trainees from 5 institutions. The six operations included in the survey constituted 47% (226 of 476) of the cases evaluated. Trainee and attending expectations did not differ significantly for senior trainees. Both groups expected significantly higher levels of autonomy than observed in the operating room for all six types of cases. Although faculty and trainees both expect similar levels of autonomy in the operating room, real-time measurements of autonomy show a gap between expectations and reality. Decreasing this gap will require a concerted effort by both faculty and residents to focus on the development of independent operative skills. Copyright © 2017 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. 7 CFR 1714.4 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 11 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 1714.4 Section 1714.4 Agriculture... PRE-LOAN POLICIES AND PROCEDURES FOR INSURED ELECTRIC LOANS General § 1714.4 Interest rates. (a) Municipal rate loans. Each advance of funds on a municipal rate loan shall bear interest at a single rate...

  7. Did I Do That? Expectancy Effects of Brain Stimulation on Error-related Negativity and Sense of Agency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoogeveen, Suzanne; Schjoedt, Uffe; van Elk, Michiel

    2018-06-19

    This study examines the effects of expected transcranial stimulation on the error(-related) negativity (Ne or ERN) and the sense of agency in participants who perform a cognitive control task. Placebo transcranial direct current stimulation was used to elicit expectations of transcranially induced cognitive improvement or impairment. The improvement/impairment manipulation affected both the Ne/ERN and the sense of agency (i.e., whether participants attributed errors to oneself or the brain stimulation device): Expected improvement increased the ERN in response to errors compared with both impairment and control conditions. Expected impairment made participants falsely attribute errors to the transcranial stimulation. This decrease in sense of agency was correlated with a reduced ERN amplitude. These results show that expectations about transcranial stimulation impact users' neural response to self-generated errors and the attribution of responsibility-especially when actions lead to negative outcomes. We discuss our findings in relation to predictive processing theory according to which the effect of prior expectations on the ERN reflects the brain's attempt to generate predictive models of incoming information. By demonstrating that induced expectations about transcranial stimulation can have effects at a neural level, that is, beyond mere demand characteristics, our findings highlight the potential for placebo brain stimulation as a promising tool for research.

  8. Understanding initial undergraduate expectations and identity in computing studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinnunen, Päivi; Butler, Matthew; Morgan, Michael; Nylen, Aletta; Peters, Anne-Kathrin; Sinclair, Jane; Kalvala, Sara; Pesonen, Erkki

    2018-03-01

    There is growing appreciation of the importance of understanding the student perspective in Higher Education (HE) at both institutional and international levels. This is particularly important in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics subjects such as Computer Science (CS) and Engineering in which industry needs are high but so are student dropout rates. An important factor to consider is the management of students' initial expectations of university study and career. This paper reports on a study of CS first-year students' expectations across three European countries using qualitative data from student surveys and essays. Expectation is examined from both short-term (topics to be studied) and long-term (career goals) perspectives. Tackling these issues will help paint a picture of computing education through students' eyes and explore their vision of its and their role in society. It will also help educators prepare students more effectively for university study and to improve the student experience.

  9. A broken promise: microbiome differential abundance methods do not control the false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawinkel, Stijn; Mattiello, Federico; Bijnens, Luc; Thas, Olivier

    2017-08-22

    High-throughput sequencing technologies allow easy characterization of the human microbiome, but the statistical methods to analyze microbiome data are still in their infancy. Differential abundance methods aim at detecting associations between the abundances of bacterial species and subject grouping factors. The results of such methods are important to identify the microbiome as a prognostic or diagnostic biomarker or to demonstrate efficacy of prodrug or antibiotic drugs. Because of a lack of benchmarking studies in the microbiome field, no consensus exists on the performance of the statistical methods. We have compared a large number of popular methods through extensive parametric and nonparametric simulation as well as real data shuffling algorithms. The results are consistent over the different approaches and all point to an alarming excess of false discoveries. This raises great doubts about the reliability of discoveries in past studies and imperils reproducibility of microbiome experiments. To further improve method benchmarking, we introduce a new simulation tool that allows to generate correlated count data following any univariate count distribution; the correlation structure may be inferred from real data. Most simulation studies discard the correlation between species, but our results indicate that this correlation can negatively affect the performance of statistical methods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Recovery in whiplash-associated disorders: do you get what you expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Linda J; Holm, Lena W; Ferrari, Robert; Ozegovic, Dejan; Cassidy, J David

    2009-05-01

    Positive expectations predict better outcome in a number of health conditions, but the role of expectations in predicting health recovery after injury is not well understood. We investigated whether early expectations of recovery in whiplash associated disorders (WAD) predict subsequent recovery, and studied the role of "expectations" to predict recovery as determined by pain cessation and resolution of pain-related limitations in daily activities. A cohort of 6,015 adults with traffic-related whiplash injuries was assessed, using multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis, for association between these expectations and self-perceived recovery over a 1-year period following the injury. Recovery was assessed using 3 indices: self-perceived global recovery (primary outcome); resolution of neck pain severity; and resolution of pain-related limitations in daily activities. After adjusting for the effect of sociodemographic characteristics, post-crash symptoms and pain, prior health status and collision-related factors, those who expected to get better soon recovered over 3 times as quickly (hazard rate ratio = 3.62, 95% confidence interval 2.55-5.13) as those who expected that they would never get better. Findings were similar for resolution of pain-related limitations and resolution of neck pain intensity, although the effect sizes for the latter outcome were smaller. Patients' early expectations for recovery are an important prognostic factor in recovery after whiplash injury, and are potentially modifiable. Clinicians should assess these expectations in order to identify those patients at risk of chronic whiplash, and future studies should focus on the effect of changing these early expectations.

  11. A cross-cultural comparison between Canada and Germany of symptom expectation for whiplash injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferrari, Robert; Lang, Christoph

    2005-02-01

    Symptom expectation for whiplash injury has been shown to be low in countries with low rates of chronic whiplash when compared with countries like Canada, where chronic whiplash is common. The objective of the current study is to compare the frequency and nature of expected "whiplash" symptoms in Germany with that in Canada. A symptom checklist was administered to two subject groups selected from local companies in Germany and Canada. Subjects were asked to imagine having suffered a neck sprain (whiplash injury) with no loss of consciousness in a motor vehicle collision and to check which, of a variety of symptoms, they would expect might arise from the injury. For symptoms they anticipated, they were asked to select the period of time they expected those symptoms to persist. In both groups, the pattern of acute symptoms anticipated closely resembled the symptoms of acute whiplash victims, but 50% of Canadians also anticipated symptoms to last months or years, whereas few German subjects selected any symptoms as likely to persist. In Germany, despite the documented occurrence of neck sprain symptoms in individuals following motor vehicle collisions, there is a very low rate of expectation of any sequelae from this injury. The current or previous aspects of society that underlie this remain uncertain. This lack of expectation of chronicity in Germany may, in part, determine the low prevalence of the chronic whiplash syndrome there. Further studies of symptom expectation as an etiologic factor in the chronic whiplash syndrome are needed.

  12. The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

    Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

  13. The False Premises and False Promises of the Movement to Privatize Public Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Willis D.

    1995-01-01

    Argues that the movement to provide parents with financial incentives to send students to private schools will increase the racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic homogeneity of American schools. Six common assumptions about the positive effects of privatizing education are examined and deemed false. Probable costs of tuition vouchers for private…

  14. False-positive reduction in CAD mass detection using a competitive classification strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Lihua; Zheng Yang; Zhang Lei; Clark, Robert A.

    2001-01-01

    High false-positive (FP) rate remains to be one of the major problems to be solved in CAD study because too many false-positively cued signals will potentially degrade the performance of detecting true-positive regions and increase the call-back rate in CAD environment. In this paper, we proposed a novel classification method for FP reduction, where the conventional 'hard' decision classifier is cascaded with a 'soft' decision classification with the objective to reduce false-positives in the cases with multiple FPs retained after the 'hard' decision classification. The 'soft' classification takes a competitive classification strategy in which only the 'best' ones are selected from the pre-classified suspicious regions as the true mass in each case. A neural network structure is designed to implement the proposed competitive classification. Comparative studies of FP reduction on a database of 79 images by a 'hard' decision classification and a combined 'hard'-'soft' classification method demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed classification strategy. For example, for the high FP sub-database which has only 31.7% of total images but accounts for 63.5% of whole FPs generated in single 'hard' classification, the FPs can be reduced for 56% (from 8.36 to 3.72 per image) by using the proposed method at the cost of 1% TP loss (from 69% to 68%) in whole database, while it can only be reduced for 27% (from 8.36 to 6.08 per image) by simply increasing the threshold of 'hard' classifier with a cost of TP loss as high as 14% (from 69% to 55%). On the average in whole database, the FP reduction by hybrid 'hard'-'soft' classification is 1.58 per image as compared to 1.11 by 'hard' classification at the TP costs described above. Because the cases with high dense tissue are of higher risk of cancer incidence and false-negative detection in mammogram screening, and usually generate more FPs in CAD detection, the method proposed in this paper will be very helpful in improving

  15. False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls ( p  false memories ( p  > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved.

  16. False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A.; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls (p false memories (p > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved. PMID:27965600

  17. Trace element distribution in different chemical fractions of False Bay sediments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rosental, R.

    1984-05-01

    Trace metals in the aquatic environment are generally concentrated on solid geochemical phases which eventually become incorporated into estuarine and marine sediments. The mechanism of trace metal concentration is believed to be adsorption on various geochemical phases, such as hydrous metal oxides, clays and organic matter. Metals in estuarine sediments can thus be expected to be partitioned between different phases, depending on the concentration of the phase and the strength of the adsorption bond. The bioavailability of sediment-bound metals to deposit-feeding organisms will depend on trace metal partitioning and the kinetics of biological metal uptake from each geochemical phase. The major objective of this study was to establish an analytical procedure involving sequential chemical extractions for the partitioning of particulate trace metals in sediment samples, collected from False Bay. Eight metals were examined, i.e. Cd, Cu, Cr, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb and Zn. X-ray diffraction was also used in the study

  18. Falsely Elevated Plasma Creatinine Due to an Immunoglobulin M Paraprotein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Mitchell R; Vijayan, Anitha; Trulock, Elbert P; Witt, Chad A; Kohler, Giselle D; Scott, Mitchell G

    2016-11-01

    The most common method for measuring plasma creatinine is based on its reaction with picric acid. However, enzymatic methods are becoming more popular due to improved specificity. We present a case of falsely elevated plasma creatinine values obtained by an enzymatic method that turned out to be due to a monoclonal immunoglobulin M (IgM) paraprotein. A 63-year-old woman evaluated for lung transplantation had falsely increased plasma creatinine levels (1.54-1.71mg/dL; corresponding to estimated glomerular filtration rates of 32-36 mL/min/1.73m 2 ) as measured by the Roche Creatinine plus enzymatic assay when compared with the picric acid-based procedure and several other enzymatic methods, which gave plasma creatinine values of 0.7 to 0.8mg/dL. Serum protein electrophoresis revealed an IgM κ light chain paraprotein. Removal of high-molecular-weight (>30kDa) proteins by ultrafiltration reduced the patient's plasma creatinine level by the Roche enzymatic method to 0.7mg/dL. Addition of the patient's immunoglobulin fraction to plasma from other patients with normal plasma creatinine levels resulted in values that were increased by 0.58 to 0.62mg/dL. Furthermore, removal of non-IgM immunoglobulins with protein G-coupled beads did not eliminate the interference from the patient's plasma. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that falsely elevated plasma creatinine values by the Roche enzymatic method can be due to an IgM paraprotein. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. New false color mapping for image fusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toet, A.; Walraven, J.

    1996-01-01

    A pixel based colour mapping algorithm is presented that produces a fused false colour rendering of two gray level images representing different sensor modalities. The result-ing fused false colour images have a higher information content than each of the original images and retain sensor-specific

  20. False-negative dipyridamole-thallium-201 myocardial imaging after caffeine infusion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smits, P.; Corstens, F.H.; Aengevaeren, W.R.; Wackers, F.J.; Thien, T.

    1991-01-01

    The vasodilator effect of intravenously administered dipyridamole may be caused by an increase in endogenous plasma adenosine levels. The authors evaluated the effect of caffeine, an adenosine receptor antagonist, on the diagnostic results of dipyridamole-201Tl myocardial imaging in eight patients with coronary artery disease. Caffeine infusion significantly attenuated the dipyridamole-induced fall in blood pressure and the accompanied increase in heart rate. The infusion of dipyridamole alone resulted in chest pain and ST-segment depressions on the electrocardiogram in four patients, whereas none of these problems occurred when the tests were repeated after caffeine. In six of eight patients, caffeine was responsible for false-negative dipyridamole-201Tl tests. Semiquantitive scores of the dipyridamole-induced 201Tl perfusion defects were decreased by caffeine from 9.0 ± 0.9 to 2.0 ± 1.1 points (p less than 0.05). Computerized analysis revealed a caffeine-mediated reduction in the percent reversibility of the images from 46% ± 16% to 6% ± 10% (p less than 0.05). They conclude that the use of caffeinated products prior to dipyridamole-201Tl testing may be responsible for false-negative findings

  1. False-negative dipyridamole-thallium-201 myocardial imaging after caffeine infusion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smits, P.; Corstens, F.H.; Aengevaeren, W.R.; Wackers, F.J.; Thien, T. (University Hospital Nijmegen (Netherlands))

    1991-08-01

    The vasodilator effect of intravenously administered dipyridamole may be caused by an increase in endogenous plasma adenosine levels. The authors evaluated the effect of caffeine, an adenosine receptor antagonist, on the diagnostic results of dipyridamole-201Tl myocardial imaging in eight patients with coronary artery disease. Caffeine infusion significantly attenuated the dipyridamole-induced fall in blood pressure and the accompanied increase in heart rate. The infusion of dipyridamole alone resulted in chest pain and ST-segment depressions on the electrocardiogram in four patients, whereas none of these problems occurred when the tests were repeated after caffeine. In six of eight patients, caffeine was responsible for false-negative dipyridamole-201Tl tests. Semiquantitive scores of the dipyridamole-induced 201Tl perfusion defects were decreased by caffeine from 9.0 {plus minus} 0.9 to 2.0 {plus minus} 1.1 points (p less than 0.05). Computerized analysis revealed a caffeine-mediated reduction in the percent reversibility of the images from 46% {plus minus} 16% to 6% {plus minus} 10% (p less than 0.05). They conclude that the use of caffeinated products prior to dipyridamole-201Tl testing may be responsible for false-negative findings.

  2. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  3. Estimating life expectancies for US small areas: a regression framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Congdon, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Analysis of area mortality variations and estimation of area life tables raise methodological questions relevant to assessing spatial clustering, and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality. Existing small area analyses of US life expectancy variation generally adopt ad hoc amalgamations of counties to alleviate potential instability of mortality rates involved in deriving life tables, and use conventional life table analysis which takes no account of correlated mortality for adjacent areas or ages. The alternative strategy here uses structured random effects methods that recognize correlations between adjacent ages and areas, and allows retention of the original county boundaries. This strategy generalizes to include effects of area category (e.g. poverty status, ethnic mix), allowing estimation of life tables according to area category, and providing additional stabilization of estimated life table functions. This approach is used here to estimate stabilized mortality rates, derive life expectancies in US counties, and assess trends in clustering and in inequality according to county poverty category.

  4. 5 CFR 430.308 - Rating performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Rating performance. 430.308 Section 430.308 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT CIVIL SERVICE REGULATIONS PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT Managing Senior Executive Performance § 430.308 Rating performance. (a) Initial summary rating...

  5. The link between individual expectations and savings: Do nursing home expectations matter?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kleinjans, Kristin J.; Lee, Jinkook

    these expectations and savings behavior, using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We find a clear relation between subjective expectations and probability of future nursing home entry, and a positive effect of these expectations on savings behavior. Surprisingly, we find no difference of this effect...... by wealth group, so it seems that Medicaid eligibility in the context of nursing home entry plays no factor in the decision to save....

  6. Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Luke Zoltan

    2018-05-01

    This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the `Illustris' cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, however, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post-processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal-mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears.From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongoing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be significantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable.With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic-variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in

  7. Tools for Trigger Rate Monitoring at CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Geoffrey; Wightman, Andrew Steven

    2017-01-01

    In 2017, we expect the LHC to deliver an instantaneous luminosity of roughly $2.0 \\times 10^{34}$~cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment, with about 60 simultaneous proton-proton collisions (pileup) per event. In these challenging conditions, it is important to be able to intelligently monitor the rate at which data are being collected (the trigger rate). It is not enough to simply look at the trigger rate; it is equally important to compare the trigger rate with expectations. We present a set of software tools that have been developed to accomplish this. The tools include a real-time component - a script that monitors the rates of individual triggers during data-taking, and activates an alarm if rates deviate significantly from expectation. Fits are made to previously collected data and extrapolated to higher pileup. The behavior of triggers as a function of pileup is then monitored as data are collected - plots are automatically produced on an hourly basis and uploaded to a web area...

  8. 24 CFR 206.21 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Interest rate. 206.21 Section 206... CONVERSION MORTGAGE INSURANCE Eligibility; Endorsement Eligible Mortgages § 206.21 Interest rate. (a) Fixed interest rate. A fixed interest rate is agreed upon by the mortgagor and mortgagee. (b) Adjustable interest...

  9. 7 CFR 4280.124 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4280.124 Section 4280.124 Agriculture... Improvements Program Section B. Guaranteed Loans § 4280.124 Interest rates. (a) The interest rate for the... in similar circumstances in the ordinary course of business. The interest rate charged is subject to...

  10. 48 CFR 942.704 - Billing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... ADMINISTRATION AND AUDIT SERVICES Indirect Cost Rates 942.704 Billing rates. (b) When the contracting officer or auditor responsible for establishing billing rates, in accordance with 48 CFR 42.704, has not established... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Billing rates. 942.704...

  11. Age Differences in the Contribution of Recollection and Familiarity to False-Memory Formation: A New Paradigm to Examine Developmental Reversals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyons, Kristen E.; Ghetti, Simona; Cornoldi, Cesare

    2010-01-01

    Using a new method for studying the development of false-memory formation, we examined developmental differences in the rates at which 6-, 7-, 9-, 10-, and 18-year-olds made two types of memory errors: backward causal-inference errors (i.e. falsely remembering having viewed the non-viewed cause of a previously viewed effect), and gap-filling…

  12. 7 CFR 4279.125 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4279.125 Section 4279.125 Agriculture... Interest rates. The interest rate for the guaranteed loan will be negotiated between the lender and the applicant and may be either fixed or variable as long as it is a legal rate. Interest rates will not be more...

  13. 25 CFR 900.51 - What is an Indian tribe or tribal organization's property management system expected to do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... Systems Property Management System Standards § 900.51 What is an Indian tribe or tribal organization's... 25 Indians 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false What is an Indian tribe or tribal organization's property management system expected to do? 900.51 Section 900.51 Indians BUREAU OF INDIAN AFFAIRS, DEPARTMENT OF THE...

  14. Susceptibility to false memories in patients with ACoA aneurysm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borsutzky, Sabine; Fujiwara, Esther; Brand, Matthias; Markowitsch, Hans J

    2010-08-01

    We examined ACoA patients regarding their susceptibility to a range of false memory phenomena. We targeted provoked confabulation, false recall and false recognition in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott-paradigm (DRM-paradigm) as well as false recognition in a mirror reading task. ACoA patients produced more provoked confabulations and more false recognition in mirror reading than comparison subjects. Conversely, false recall/false recognition in the DRM-paradigm were similar in patients and controls. Whereas the former two indices of false memories were correlated, no relationship was revealed with the DRM-paradigm. Our results suggest that rupture of ACoA aneurysm leads to an increased susceptibility to a subset of false memories types. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Data from Paper “False-Positive Psychology: Undisclosed Flexibility in Data Collection and Analysis Allows Presenting Anything as Significant”

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph P Simmons

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The data includes measures collected for the two experiments reported in “False-Positive Psychology” [1] where listening to a randomly assigned song made people feel younger (Study 1 or actually be younger (Study 2. These data are useful because they illustrate inflations of false positive rates due to flexibility in data collection, analysis, and reporting of results. Data are useful for educational purposes.

  16. Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Richard M. Levich

    1983-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research completed over the last decade has dramatically increased our understanding of exchange rate behavior. The major insight to come from this decade of research is that foreign exchange is a financial asset. In an asset pricing framework, current exchange rates reflect the expected values of future exogenous variables. The purpose of this paper is to survay the empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, market efficiency and related topics. Section 2 present...

  17. How does negative emotion cause false memories?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Stein, L M; Silveira, R A; Rohenkohl, G; Reyna, V F

    2008-09-01

    Remembering negative events can stimulate high levels of false memory, relative to remembering neutral events. In experiments in which the emotional valence of encoded materials was manipulated with their arousal levels controlled, valence produced a continuum of memory falsification. Falsification was highest for negative materials, intermediate for neutral materials, and lowest for positive materials. Conjoint-recognition analysis produced a simple process-level explanation: As one progresses from positive to neutral to negative valence, false memory increases because (a) the perceived meaning resemblance between false and true items increases and (b) subjects are less able to use verbatim memories of true items to suppress errors.

  18. Dental Status and Compression of Life Expectancy with Disability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuyama, Y; Aida, J; Watt, R G; Tsuboya, T; Koyama, S; Sato, Y; Kondo, K; Osaka, K

    2017-08-01

    This study examined whether the number of teeth contributes to the compression of morbidity, measured as a shortening of life expectancy with disability, an extension of healthy life expectancy, and overall life expectancy. A prospective cohort study was conducted. A self-reported baseline survey was given to 126,438 community-dwelling older people aged ≥65 y in Japan in 2010, and 85,161 (67.4%) responded. The onset of functional disability and all-cause mortality were followed up for 1,374 d (follow-up rate = 96.1%). A sex-stratified illness-death model was applied to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for 3 health transitions (healthy to dead, healthy to disabled, and disabled to dead). Absolute differences in life expectancy, healthy life expectancy, and life expectancy with disability according to the number of teeth were also estimated. Age, denture use, socioeconomic status, health status, and health behavior were adjusted. Compared with the edentulous participants, participants with ≥20 teeth had lower risks of transitioning from healthy to dead (adjusted HR, 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.50-0.68] for men and 0.70 [95% CI, 0.57-0.85] for women) and from healthy to disabled (adjusted HR, 0.52 [95% CI, 0.44-0.61] for men and 0.58 [95% CI, 0.49-0.68] for women). They also transitioned from disabled to dead earlier (adjusted HR, 1.26 [95% CI, 0.99-1.60] for men and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.72-3.38] for women). Among the participants aged ≥85 y, those with ≥20 teeth had a longer life expectancy (men: +57 d; women: +15 d) and healthy life expectancy (men: +92 d; women: +70 d) and a shorter life expectancy with disability (men: -35 d; women: -55 d) compared with the edentulous participants. Similar associations were observed among the younger participants and those with 1 to 9 or 10 to 19 teeth. The presence of remaining teeth was associated with a significant compression of morbidity: older Japanese adults' life expectancy with disability was

  19. Saddlepoint Approximations for Expectations and an Application to CDO Pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, X.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2011-01-01

    We derive two types of saddlepoint approximations for expectations in the form of E[(X - K)+], where X is the sum of n independent random variables and K is a known constant. We establish error convergence rates for both types of approximations in the independently and identically distributed case.

  20. Working memory affects false memory production for emotional events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico; Ciriello, Alfonso; Cornoldi, Cesare

    2017-01-01

    Whereas a link between working memory (WM) and memory distortions has been demonstrated, its influence on emotional false memories is unclear. In two experiments, a verbal WM task and a false memory paradigm for negative, positive or neutral events were employed. In Experiment 1, we investigated individual differences in verbal WM and found that the interaction between valence and WM predicted false recognition, with negative and positive material protecting high WM individuals against false remembering; the beneficial effect of negative material disappeared in low WM participants. In Experiment 2, we lowered the WM capacity of half of the participants with a double task request, which led to an overall increase in false memories; furthermore, consistent with Experiment 1, the increase in negative false memories was larger than that of neutral or positive ones. It is concluded that WM plays a critical role in determining false memory production, specifically influencing the processing of negative material.

  1. Explicating the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability alcohol expectancies in rape attributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starfelt, Louise C; Young, Ross McD; White, Katherine M; Palk, Gavan R M

    2015-07-01

    Despite evidence suggesting that alcohol expectancies may influence people's rape perceptions, no study to date has measured context-specific expectancies comprehensively. This study represents an initial investigation of the role of sexual coercion and vulnerability alcohol expectancies in young Australian adults' rape blame attributions. Using a vignette method, it was hypothesized that participants' stronger expectancy endorsement would predict lesser perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Participants (n = 210; 34.9% males; 18-25 years) read a hypothetical rape scenario and rated dimensions of blameworthiness attributed to the intoxicated sexual perpetrator and victim. Participants completed the Sexual Coercion and Sexual Vulnerability subscales of the Drinking Expectancy Sexual Vulnerabilities Questionnaire for the targets self, men, and women in addition to measures of traditional gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Hierarchical multiple regressions revealed that, as expected, stronger sexual coercion expectancy predicted lower perpetrator blame and greater victim blame. Self-oriented expectancy predicted evaluations of the perpetrator whereas other-oriented expectancy predicted victim evaluations. These effects were robust after controlling for gender role attitudes and rape myth acceptance. Alcohol expectancies appear to be part of a network of beliefs and attitudes which perpetuate biased rape attributions and may be useful to challenge in altering rape perceptions. © The Author(s) 2014.

  2. Leading Causes of Death Contributing to Decrease in Life Expectancy Gap Between Black and White Populations: United States, 1999-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kochanek, Kenneth D; Anderson, Robert N; Arias, Elizabeth

    2015-11-01

    Life expectancy at birth has increased steadily since 1900 to a record 78.8 years in 2013. But differences in life expectancy between the white and black populations still exist, despite a decrease in the life expectancy gap from 5.9 years in 1999 to 3.6 years in 2013. Differences in the change over time in the leading causes of death for the black and white populations have contributed to this decrease in the gap in life expectancy. Between 1999 and 2013, the decrease in the life expectancy gap between the black and white populations was mostly due to greater decreases in mortality from heart disease, cancer, HIV disease, unintentional injuries, and perinatal conditions among the black population. Similarly, the decrease in the gap between black and white male life expectancy was due to greater decreases in death rates for HIV disease, cancer, unintentional injuries, heart disease, and perinatal conditions in black males. For black females, greater decreases in diabetes death rates, combined with decreased rates for heart disease and HIV disease, were the major causes contributing to the decrease in the life expectancy gap with white females. The decrease in the gap in life expectancy between the white and black populations would have been larger than 3.6 years if not for increases in death rates for the black population for aortic aneurysm, Alzheimer’s disease, and maternal conditions. For black males, the causes that showed increases in death rates over white males were hypertension, aortic aneurysm, diabetes, Alzheimer’s disease, and kidney disease, while the causes that showed increases in death rates for black females were Alzheimer’s disease, maternal conditions, and atherosclerosis. This NCHS Data Brief is the second in a series of data briefs that explore the causes of death contributing to differences in life expectancy between detailed ethnic and racial populations in the United States. The first data brief focused on the racial differences in life

  3. A review and assessment of the role of expectations in the scales to measure perceived quality of service

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Luis Palacios Gómez

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this article is to revise the role of expectations in the perceived quality scales applied by means of a survey. It´s shown the main scales used to measure the quality of the service, whether they include expectations or other comparison standars or they only measure perceptions. We compare the practical, economic and psychometric features of the scales and we conclude that, all in all, scales registering only perceptions are the most appropriate to measure the perceived quality of the service. Normal 0 21 false false false ES X-NONE X-NONE /* Style Definitions */ table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name:"Tabla normal"; mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0; mso-style-noshow:yes; mso-style-priority:99; mso-style-qformat:yes; mso-style-parent:""; mso-padding-alt:0cm 5.4pt 0cm 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0cm; mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt; mso-pagination:widow-orphan; font-size:11.0pt; font-family:"Calibri","sans-serif"; mso-ascii-font-family:Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-theme-font:minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family:Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin; mso-bidi-font-family:"Times New Roman"; mso-bidi-theme-font:minor-bidi;}

  4. Trading Stages: Life Expectancies in Structured Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim; Horvitz, Carol

    2012-01-01

    Interest in stage-and age structured models has recently increased because they can describe quantitative traits such as size that are left out of age-only demography. Available methods for the analysis of effects of vital rates on lifespan in stage-structured models have not been widely applied because they are hard to use and interpret, and tools for age and stage structured populations are missing. We present easily interpretable expressions for the sensitivities and elasticities of life expectancy to vital rates in age-stage models, and illustrate their application with two biological examples. Much of our approach relies on trading of time and mortality risk in one stage for time and risk in others. Our approach contributes to the new framework of the study of age- and stage-structured biodemography. PMID:22664576

  5. E-cigarettes and expectancies: why do some users keep smoking?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrell, Paul T; Simmons, Vani N; Piñeiro, Barbara; Correa, John B; Menzie, Nicole S; Meltzer, Lauren R; Unrod, Marina; Brandon, Thomas H

    2015-11-01

    Many smokers who have tried electronic cigarettes ('e-cigarettes') continue to smoke, perhaps influenced by their beliefs about the outcomes of using e-cigarettes ('e-cigarette expectancies'). The primary aims of this study were to compare expectancies of dual users to former smokers, and to examine the association between expectancies and intentions to quit or reduce 'vaping' among former smokers. A large cross-sectional online survey of e-cigarette users conducted in the United States. We surveyed current e-cigarette users (n = 1815), including both current cigarette smokers ('dual users', n = 381) and former smokers (n = 1434). We further subdivided former smokers into those with (n = 686) and without (n = 748) intentions to reduce or quit e-cigarette use. The primary outcomes were self-reported past-month smoking status and, among former smokers, current intentions to reduce or quit e-cigarette use, both adjusted for potential confounders. E-cigarette expectancy items were derived primarily from a previously validated measure of smoking expectancies. Dual users reported less positive expectancies than former smokers about e-cigarettes, rating e-cigarettes as more physically irritating (β = 0.10, P addictive (β = 0.06, P = 0.016), as well as less satisfying (β = -0.11, P addiction (β = 0.10, P e-cigarette expectancies among e-cigarette users are associated with a greater likelihood of having quit smoking, but lower likelihood of intention to quit e-cigarette use. © 2015 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  6. 23 CFR 650.707 - Rating factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 23 Highways 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Rating factor. 650.707 Section 650.707 Highways FEDERAL..., STRUCTURES, AND HYDRAULICS Discretionary Bridge Candidate Rating Factor § 650.707 Rating factor. (a) The.... ER15OC02.010 The lower the rating factor, the higher the priority for selection and funding. (b) The terms...

  7. Goal Setting and Expectancy Theory Predictions of Effort and Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossett, Dennis L.; Luce, Helen E.

    Neither expectancy (VIE) theory nor goal setting alone are effective determinants of individual effort and task performance. To test the combined ability of VIE and goal setting to predict effort and performance, 44 real estate agents and their managers completed questionnaires. Quarterly income goals predicted managers' ratings of agents' effort,…

  8. Evaluation of inadequate, indeterminate, false-negative and false-positive cases in cytological examination for breast cancer according to histological type

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yamaguchi Rin

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We previously investigated the current status of breast cytology cancer screening at seven institutes in our area of southern Fukuoka Prefecture, and found some differences in diagnostic accuracy among the institutions. In the present study, we evaluated the cases involved and noted possible reasons for their original cytological classification as inadequate, indeterminate, false-negative and false-positive according to histological type. Methods We evaluated the histological findings in 5693 individuals who underwent cytological examination for breast cancer (including inadequate, indeterminate, false-negative and false-positive cases, to determine the most common histological types and/or features in these settings and the usefulness/limitations of cytological examination for the diagnosis of breast cancer. Results Among 1152 cytologically inadequate cases, histology revealed that 75/173 (43.6% cases were benign, including mastopathy (fibrocystic disease in 38.6%, fibroadenoma in 24.0% and papilloma in 5.3%. Ninety-five of 173 (54.9% cases were histologically malignant, with scirrhous growing type, invasive ductal carcinoma (SIDC being significantly more frequent (49.5% than papillotubular growing type (Papi-tub (P P = 0.0001 and ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS (P = 0.0001. Among 458 indeterminate cases, 54/139 (38.8% were histologically benign (mastopathy, 30.0%; fibroadenoma, 27.8%; papilloma, 26.0% and 73/139 (52.5% were malignant, with SIDC being the most frequent malignant tumor (37.0%. Among 52 false-negative cases, SIDC was significantly more frequent (42.3% than DCIS (P = 0.0049 and Papi-tub (P = 0.001. There were three false-positive cases, with one each of fibroadenoma, epidermal cyst and papilloma. Conclusions The inadequate, indeterminate, false-negative and false-positive cases showed similar histological types, notably SIDC for malignant tumors, and mastopathy, fibroadenoma and papilloma for

  9. The risk factor of false-negative and false-positive for T-SPOT.TB in active tuberculosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di, Li; Li, Yan

    2018-02-01

    T-SPOT.TB is a promising diagnosis tool to identify both pulmonary tuberculosis and extrapulmonary tuberculosis, as well as latent tuberculosis; however, the factors that affect the results of T-SPOT.TB remains unclear. In this study, we aim to figure out the risk factor of T-SPOT.TB for active TB. A total of 349 patients were recruited between January 1st, 2016 and January 22st, 2017 at Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University, including 98 subjects with TB and 251 subjects with non-TB disease, and received T-SPOT.TB (Oxford Immunotec Ltd). Statistics were analyzed by SPSS 19.0 using logistic regression. The overall specificity and sensitivity of the T-SPOT.TB was 92.83% (233/251; 95%CI 0.8872-0.9557) and 83.67% (82/98; 95%CI 0.7454-0.9010), respectively. Patients with tuberculous meningitis were more likely to have false-negative results (OR 17.4, 95%CI 3.068-98.671; P.05). Tuberculous meningitis was a risk factor of false-negative for T-SPOT.TB, while cured TB was a risk factor of false-positive. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  10. False-negative diffusion-weighted imaging findings in acute stroke

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishikawa, Tatsuya; Yuasa, Naoki; Otomo, Takashi; Shiramizu, Hideki; Matsuda, Hiroshi; Kitagawa, Yasuhisa; Takagi, Shigeharu

    2006-01-01

    The utility of DWI (diffusion-weighted imaging) has been established in acute ischemic stroke. However, some patients with acute stroke show no abnormal signals on DWI, despite the presence of infarction (false-negative DWI). We analyzed the relationship between false-negative DWI and the clinical manifestations of acute ischemic stroke in 151 DWI-positive (89%) and 19 false-negative DWI (11%) patients. We performed MRI within 24 hours after onset at our hospital. Non-specific clinical manifestations, including vertigo and nausea, were frequently observed in false-negative DWI patients. As regards the vascular territory, false-negative DWI was noted in 15.3% of 59 patients with infarctions within the territory of the vertebrobasilar artery. Concerning the duration from onset to initial imaging, 73.7% of the patients with false-negative DWI findings underwent MRI examination within 6 hours after onset. Of the patients with false-negative DWI, 84.2% had lacunar infarction (χ 2 =16.4, P<0.001). In conclusion, false negative DWI is more frequently observed in lacunar infarction than in atherothrombotic infarction or cardiogenic embolism. It is important to examine carefully the neurological changes occurring in patients who present with acute stroke, but have negative DWI findings. (author)

  11. The probability of the false vacuum decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

    1983-01-01

    The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

  12. False belief reasoning in the brain: An ERP study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Understanding others mind and interpersonal interaction are the cognitive basis of successful social interactions. People’s mental states and behaviors rely on their holding beliefs for self and others. To investigate the neural substrates of false belief reasoning, the 32 channels event-related potentials (ERP) of 14 normal adults were measured while they understood false-belief and true belief used de-ceptive appearance task. After onset of the false-belief or true-belief questions, N100, P200 and late negative component (LNC) were elicited at centro-frontal sites. Compared with true belief, false belief reasoning elicited significant declined LNC in the time window from 400 to 800 ms. The source analysis of difference wave (False minus True) showed a dipole located in the middle cingulated cortex. These findings show that false belief reasoning probably included inhibitive process.

  13. False belief reasoning in the brain: An ERP study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Understanding others mind and interpersonal interaction are the cognitive basis of successful social interactions. People's mental states and behaviors rely on their holding beliefs for self and others. To investigate the neural substrates of false belief reasoning, the 32 channels event-related potentials (ERP) of 14 normal adults were measured while they understood false-belief and true belief used deceptive appearance task. After onset of the false-belief or true-belief questions, N100, P200 and late negative component (LNC) were elicited at centro-frontal sites. Compared with true belief, false belief reasoning elicited significant declined LNC in the time window from 400 to 800 ms. The source analysis of difference wave (False minus True) showed a dipole located in the middle cingulated cortex. These findings show that false belief reasoning probably included inhibitive process.

  14. Convexity, gauge-dependence and tunneling rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Plascencia, Alexis D.; Tamarit, Carlos [Institute for Particle Physics Phenomenology, Durham University,South Road, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom)

    2016-10-19

    We clarify issues of convexity, gauge-dependence and radiative corrections in relation to tunneling rates. Despite the gauge dependence of the effective action at zero and finite temperature, it is shown that tunneling and nucleation rates remain independent of the choice of gauge-fixing. Taking as a starting point the functional that defines the transition amplitude from a false vacuum onto itself, it is shown that decay rates are exactly determined by a non-convex, false vacuum effective action evaluated at an extremum. The latter can be viewed as a generalized bounce configuration, and gauge-independence follows from the appropriate Nielsen identities. This holds for any election of gauge-fixing that leads to an invertible Faddeev-Popov matrix.

  15. Convexity, gauge-dependence and tunneling rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plascencia, Alexis D.; Tamarit, Carlos

    2016-01-01

    We clarify issues of convexity, gauge-dependence and radiative corrections in relation to tunneling rates. Despite the gauge dependence of the effective action at zero and finite temperature, it is shown that tunneling and nucleation rates remain independent of the choice of gauge-fixing. Taking as a starting point the functional that defines the transition amplitude from a false vacuum onto itself, it is shown that decay rates are exactly determined by a non-convex, false vacuum effective action evaluated at an extremum. The latter can be viewed as a generalized bounce configuration, and gauge-independence follows from the appropriate Nielsen identities. This holds for any election of gauge-fixing that leads to an invertible Faddeev-Popov matrix.

  16. Patient expectations and their satisfaction in the context of public hospitals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berhane A

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Adugnaw Berhane,1 Fikre Enquselassie2 1College of Health Sciences, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia; 2School of Public Health, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Background: Patient expectations have been recognized as a factor for patient satisfaction in medical consultations. Although various studies explored the relationship between patient expectations and patient satisfaction in developed countries, there is a lack of research evidence in Ethiopia where the meeting of patient expectations could relate to satisfaction.Objective: To assess the relationship between patients’ expectations and their satisfaction in the consultation of patients at the outpatient department.Study design: Data were collected regarding preconsultation expectations and postconsultation experiences of adult patients attending nine public hospitals. A systematic random sampling method was used where every fifth patient attending an outpatient department was selected. The patients were interviewed before consultation and after consulta­tion to assess whether their pre-consultation expectations were met and to assess how satisfied they were with the consultation. Cronbach’s alpha statistic was used to assess the reliability of the expectation questionnaires, and paired t-test was used to assess any differences between previsit expectations and postvisit experiences. Logistic regression techniques were used to assess variables considered as independent factors for patient satisfaction.Results: A total of 776 patients were interviewed, giving a response rate of 92.3%. About 93.7% mentioned a diagnosis for their condition as a reason for their current hospital visits. There is a significant difference between preconsultation expectation and postconsultation expectation. Postconsultation expectation, perceived health status, and perceived control on health were factors identified as increasing patient satisfaction. In addition, the presence of

  17. Cost-effectiveness analysis of preimplantation genetic screening and in vitro fertilization versus expectant management in patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murugappan, Gayathree; Ohno, Mika S; Lathi, Ruth B

    2015-05-01

    To determine whether in vitro fertilization with preimplantation genetic screening (IVF/PGS) is cost effective compared with expectant management in achieving live birth for patients with unexplained recurrent pregnancy loss (RPL). Decision analytic model comparing costs and clinical outcomes. Academic recurrent pregnancy loss programs. Women with unexplained RPL. IVF/PGS with 24-chromosome screening and expectant management. Cost per live birth. The IVF/PGS strategy had a live-birth rate of 53% and a clinical miscarriage rate of 7%. Expectant management had a live-birth rate of 67% and clinical miscarriage rate of 24%. The IVF/PGS strategy was 100-fold more expensive, costing $45,300 per live birth compared with $418 per live birth with expectant management. In this model, IVF/PGS was not a cost-effective strategy for increasing live birth. Furthermore, the live-birth rate with IVF/PGS needs to be 91% to be cost effective compared with expectant management. Copyright © 2015 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Cannabis expectancies in substance misusers: French validation of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillem, Eric; Notides, Christine; Vorspan, Florence; Debray, Marcel; Nieto, Isabel; Leroux, Mayliss; Lépine, Jean-Pierre

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire (48 items) and study the cannabis expectancies according to the patterns of substance use and psychiatric disorders (DSM-IV). A sample of 263 subjects (average age 33.1 years [SD = 8.7], 56% men) consisting of cannabis users (n = 64), psychiatric inpatients (n = 175, most of whom were hospitalized for withdrawal), and a control group (n = 24) completed the questionnaire. Internal reliability was good (α= .87) and temporal reliability was satisfactory, with 24 of 48 items having a significant κ ≥ .41. Factor analysis showed four main factors that explained 42.1% of the total variance. The women feared Cognitive Impairment and Negative Effects, and Negative Behavioral Effects more than the men. The onset age of cannabis use, onset age of abuse, abuse and dependence were associated with fewer negative expectancies. Cannabis dependents differed from abusers by more Relaxation and Social Facilitation expectancies. Patients with major depressive episodes, panic disorder, social anxiety disorder, or posttraumatic stress disorder feared negative effects the most. Schizophrenic patients expected more Perceptual Enhancement and Craving. The French version of the Marijuana Effect Expectancy Questionnaire has good psychometric properties and is valid to assess cannabis expectancies in adolescents and adults with substance use disorders. Copyright © American Academy of Addiction Psychiatry.

  19. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  20. How do GPs in Switzerland perceive their patients' satisfaction and expectations? An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sebo, Paul; Herrmann, François R; Haller, Dagmar M

    2015-06-10

    To assess doctors' perceptions of their patients' satisfaction and expectations in primary care. Cross-sectional study using questionnaires completed by general practitioners (GPs) and their patients. Primary care practices in Geneva, Switzerland. 23 GPs from a random list of 75 GPs practising in the canton of Geneva (participation rate 31%), who each recruited between 50 and 100 consecutive patients coming to the practice for a scheduled medical consultation, leading to a total of 1637 patients (participation rate: 97%, women: 63%, mean age: 54 years). Patient exclusion criteria were: new patients, those consulting in an emergency situation or suffering from disorders affecting their ability to consent, and those who did not speak French. Patients satisfaction with and expectations from the care they received in this practice; GPs perceptions of their patient's satisfaction and expectations. GPs underestimated all patient satisfaction items (p<0.001 for all items) whereas they overestimated their expectations, except for equipment (laboratory and X-ray) and some accessibility items. In a multivariate analysis to assess which GP factors were associated with correct assessment of their patients' views, only GPs' certification status was a significant factor. GPs tend to underestimate patients' satisfaction but overestimate their expectations in primary care. These findings may help GPs to understand patients' views in order to adequately meet their expectations and concerns. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  1. Systematic review: Do patient expectations influence treatment outcomes in total knee and total hip arthroplasty?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haanstra Tsjitske M

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective This systematic review aims to summarise all the available evidence related to the association between pre-operative patient expectations (outcome expectations, process expectations and self efficacy expectations and 5 different treatment outcomes (overall improvement, pain, function, stiffness and satisfaction in patients with total knee or total hip arthroplasty at three different follow-op periods (>6 weeks; >6 weeks- ≤6 months; >6 months. Methods English and Dutch language articles were identified through PubMed, EMBASE.com, PsycINFO, CINAHL and The Cochrane Library from inception to September 2012. Articles assessing the association between pre-operative patient expectations and treatment outcomes for TKA/THA in either adjusted or unadjusted analysis were included. Two reviewers, working independently, determined eligibility, rated methodological quality and extracted data on study design, population, expectation measurements, outcome measurements and strength of the associations. Methodological quality was rated by the same reviewers on a 19 item scale. The scores on the quality assessment were taken into account when drawing final conclusions. Results The search strategy generated 2252 unique references, 18 articles met inclusion criteria. Scores on the methodological quality assessment ranged between 6% and 79%. Great variety was seen in definitions and measurement methods of expectations. No significant associations were found between patient expectations and overall improvement, satisfaction and stiffness. Both significant positive and non-significant associations were found for the association between expectations and pain and function. Conclusions There was no consistency in the association between patients’ pre-operative expectations and treatment outcomes for TKA and THA indentified in this systematic review. There exists a need for a sound theoretical framework underlying the construct of

  2. 12 CFR 614.4155 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 614.4155 Section 614.4155 Banks... Policies for Banks and Associations § 614.4155 Interest rates. Loans made by each bank and direct lender association shall bear interest at a rate or rates as may be determined by the institution board. The board...

  3. 7 CFR 4274.325 - Interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rates. 4274.325 Section 4274.325 Agriculture... (IRP) § 4274.325 Interest rates. (a) Loans made by the Agency pursuant to this subpart shall bear interest at a fixed rate of 1 percent per annum over the term of the loan. (b) Interest rates charged by...

  4. 33 CFR 159.69 - Motor ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Motor ratings. 159.69 Section 159.69 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) POLLUTION MARINE SANITATION DEVICES Design, Construction, and Testing § 159.69 Motor ratings. Motors must be rated...

  5. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  6. Lateralised sleep spindles relate to false memory generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, John J; Monaghan, Padraic

    2017-12-01

    Sleep is known to enhance false memories: After presenting participants with lists of semantically related words, sleeping before recalling these words results in a greater acceptance of unseen "lure" words related in theme to previously seen words. Furthermore, the right hemisphere (RH) seems to be more prone to false memories than the left hemisphere (LH). In the current study, we investigated the sleep architecture associated with these false memory and lateralisation effects in a nap study. Participants viewed lists of related words, then stayed awake or slept for approximately 90min, and were then tested for recognition of previously seen-old, unseen-new, or unseen-lure words presented either to the LH or RH. Sleep increased acceptance of unseen-lure words as previously seen compared to the wake group, particularly for RH presentations of word lists. RH lateralised stage 2 sleep spindle density relative to the LH correlated with this increase in false memories, suggesting that RH sleep spindles enhanced false memories in the RH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Future Expectations of High School Students In Southeastern Turkey: Factors behind Future Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hüseyin Şimşek

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This study was conducted to identify various future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey and factors behind their expectations. The sample of the study, which had a descriptive and associational survey design consisted of 1106 students randomly selected from 54 different high schools located in nine cities in southeastern Turkey. Data were collected through the “Future Expectation Scale (FES” developed by the researcher. Results indicated that personal and professional future, educational future, economic future and social future expectations of high school students in southeastern Turkey were generally above the average level. According to the study, being a teacher and a doctor took the first place among several professions to be further preferred by high school students. It was also concluded that future expectations of high school students did not differ on gender, high school type, CGPA, level of mother education, father’s occupation, family income level, the number of siblings, receiving pre-school education, and language spoken at home. On the other hand, future expectations of high school students were found to differ on the city where students being taught, grade level, corporal punishment, and tendency toward being a dropout.

  8. Knowledge, expectations, and inductive reasoning within conceptual hierarchies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, John D; Hayes, Brett; Lawson, Christopher; Moloney, Michelle

    2004-01-01

    Previous research (e.g. Cognition 64 (1997) 73) suggests that the privileged level for inductive inference in a folk biological conceptual hierarchy does not correspond to the "basic" level (i.e. the level at which concepts are both informative and distinct). To further explore inductive inference within conceptual hierarchies, we examine relations between knowledge of concepts at different hierarchical levels, expectations about conceptual coherence, and inductive inference. In Experiments 1 and 2, 5- and 8-year-olds and adults listed features of living kind (Experiments 1 and 2) and artifact (Experiment 2) concepts at different hierarchical levels (e.g. plant, tree, oak, desert oak), and also rated the strength of generalizations to the same concepts. For living kinds, the level that showed a relative advantage on these two tasks differed; the greatest increase in features listed tended to occur at the life-form level (e.g. tree), whereas the greatest increase in inductive strength tended to occur at the folk-generic level (e.g. oak). Knowledge and induction also showed different developmental trajectories. For artifact concepts, the levels at which the greatest gains in knowledge and induction occurred were more varied, and corresponded more closely across tasks. In Experiment 3, adults reported beliefs about within-category similarity for concepts at different levels of animal, plant and artifact hierarchies, and rated inductive strength as before. For living kind concepts, expectations about category coherence predicted patterns of inductions; knowledge did not. For artifact concepts, both knowledge and expectations predicted patterns of induction. Results suggest that beliefs about conceptual coherence play an important role in guiding inductive inference, that this role may be largely independent of specific knowledge of concepts, and that such beliefs are especially important in reasoning about living kinds.

  9. Application of year-round atmospheric transmission data, collected with the MSRT multiband transmissometer during the FATMOSE trial in the False Bay area

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Jong, Arie N.; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Cohen, Leo H.; Fritz, Peter J.; Gunter, Willem H.; Vrahimis, George; October, Faith J.

    2011-09-01

    The FATMOSE trial (False Bay Atmospheric Experiment) is a continuation of the cooperative work between TNO and IMT on atmospheric propagation and point target detection and identification in a maritime environment, South Africa). The atmospheric transmission, being of major importance for target detection, was measured with the MSRT multiband optical/IR transmissometer over a path of 15.7 km over sea. Simultaneously a set of instruments was installed on a midpath lighthouse for collection of local meteorological data, including turbulence, scintillation, sea surface temperature and visibility. The multiband transmission data allow the retrieval of the size distribution (PSD) of the particles (aerosols) in the transmission path. The retrieved PSD's can be correlated with the weather data such as windspeed, wind direction, relative humidity and visibility. This knowledge will lead to better atmospheric propagation models. The measurement period covered nearly a full year, starting in November 2009 and ending in October 2010. The False Bay site is ideal for studies on propagation effects over sea because of the large variety of weather conditions, including high windspeed, expected from the South East with maritime air masses, as well as Northerly winds, expected to bring warm and dry air from the continent. From an operational point of view the False Bay area is interesting, being representative for the scenery around the African coast with warships in an active protecting role in the battle against piracy. The yearround transmission data are an important input for range performance calculations of electro-optical sensors against maritime targets. The data support the choice of the proper spectral band and contain statistical information about the detection ranges to be expected. In this paper details on the instrumentation will be explained as well as the methods of calibration and PSD retrieval. Data are presented for various weather conditions, showing

  10. Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

  11. Great Expectations: How Role Expectations and Role Experiences Relate to Perceptions of Group Cohesion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Alex J; Eys, Mark A; Irving, P Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Many athletes experience a discrepancy between the roles they expect to fulfill and the roles they eventually occupy. Drawing from met expectations theory, we applied response surface methodology to examine how role expectations, in relation to role experiences, influence perceptions of group cohesion among Canadian Interuniversity Sport athletes (N = 153). On the basis of data from two time points, as athletes approached and exceeded their role contribution expectations, they reported higher perceptions of task cohesion. Furthermore, as athletes approached and exceeded their social involvement expectations, they reported higher perceptions of social cohesion. These response surface patterns-pertaining to task and social cohesion-were driven by the positive influence of role experiences. On the basis of the interplay between athletes' role experiences and their perception of the group environment, efforts to improve team dynamics may benefit from focusing on improving the quality of role experiences, in conjunction with developing realistic role expectations.

  12. Further Evidence for Nonspecificity of Theory of Mind in Preschoolers: Training and Transferability in the Understanding of False Beliefs and False Signs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iao, Lai-Sang; Leekam, Susan; Perner, Josef; McConachie, Helen

    2011-01-01

    In a training study, the authors addressed whether or not preschoolers' difficulty with false belief is due to a domain-specific problem with mental states. Following Slaughter's (1998) design, 57 children who failed a false-belief (FB) pretest received two sessions of training on either an FB, false sign (FS), or control task. All children were…

  13. The Role of the Counterfactually Satisfied Desire in the Lag between False-Belief and False-Emotion Attributions in Children Aged 4-7

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bradmetz, Joel; Schneider, Roland

    2004-01-01

    A robust lag was evidenced between the attribution to an individual of a false belief about the world and the attribution of the false emotion associated with this false belief (Bradmetz & Schneider, 1999). This lag was unexpected in the frame of current theories of mind which consider that emotion has a rational cognitive basis. The present paper…

  14. Scenario analysis of false indication in computer-control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Wan-Hui; Fan, Chin-Feng

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new failure mode and effect for safety-critical systems is proposed. ► False indication is the most dreadful kind of partial failures. ► A model-based simulation approach to generate failure scenarios is proposed. ► Simulation results showed that multiple errors may cause undesired consequences. ► An assertion-based method to detect false indication problems is provided. -- Abstract: Computer control may cause additional failure modes and effects that are new to analogue systems. False indication is one such failure mode that may bring unknown risks to a system. False indication refers to the problem when part of a system fails while other processes still work, and the failure is not revealed to operators. This paper presents a model-based simulation approach to systematically generate potential false indication and unintended consequences. Experiments showed that once a false indication occurs, it may have drastic effects on system safety. False indication can mislead the operator to perform adverse actions or no action. Therefore, we propose an assertion-based detection method to alleviate such failures. Our assertions contain process/device dependencies, timing relations and physical conservation rules. With these assertions, the operator may be alerted at run time. The proposed technique can reduce false indication problem. Moreover, it can also be used to assist the system design.

  15. False Operation of Static Random Access Memory Cells under Alternating Current Power Supply Voltage Variation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sawada, Takuya; Takata, Hidehiro; Nii, Koji; Nagata, Makoto

    2013-04-01

    Static random access memory (SRAM) cores exhibit susceptibility against power supply voltage variation. False operation is investigated among SRAM cells under sinusoidal voltage variation on power lines introduced by direct RF power injection. A standard SRAM core of 16 kbyte in a 90 nm 1.5 V technology is diagnosed with built-in self test and on-die noise monitor techniques. The sensitivity of bit error rate is shown to be high against the frequency of injected voltage variation, while it is not greatly influenced by the difference in frequency and phase against SRAM clocking. It is also observed that the distribution of false bits is substantially random in a cell array.

  16. Inhomogeneity of optical turbulence over False Bay (South Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullwer, Carmen; Sprung, Detlev; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Gunter, Willi; Stein, Karin

    2017-09-01

    Atmospheric turbulence impacts on the propagation of electro-optical radiation. Typical manifestations of optical turbulence are scintillation (intensity fluctuations), beam wander and (for laser systems) reduction of beam quality. For longer propagation channels, it is important to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution (inhomogeneity) of the optical turbulence. In the framework of the First European South African Transmission ExpeRiment (FESTER) optical turbulence was measured between June 2015 and February 2016 on a 2 km over-water link over False Bay. The link ran from the Institute of Maritime Technology (IMT) in Simons Town to the lighthouse at Roman Rock Island. Three Boundary layer scintillometers (BLS900) allowed assessing the vertical distribution of optical turbulence at three different heights between 5 and 12 m above the water surface. The expected decrease of Cn2 with height is not always found. These results are analyzed in terms of the meteorological scenarios, and a comparison is made with a fourth optical link providing optical turbulence data over a 8.7 km path from IMT to Kalk Bay, roughly 36° to the north of the three 2 km paths. The results are related to the inhomogeneous meteorological conditions over the Bay as assessed with the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Forecast and Research model WRF.

  17. Amnesiacs might get the gist: reduced false recognition in amnesia may be the result of impaired item-specific memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissan, Jack; Abrahams, Sharon; Sala, Sergio Della

    2013-01-01

    It is a common finding in tests of false recognition that amnesic patients recognize fewer related lures than healthy controls, and this has led to assumptions that gist memory is damaged in these patients (Schacter, Verfaellie, & Anes, 1997, Neuropsychology, 11; Schacter, Verfaellie, Anes, & Racine, 1998, Journal of Cognitive Neuroscience, 10; Schacter, Verfaellie, & Pradere, 1996, Journal of Memory and Language, 35). However, clinical observations find that amnesic patients typically hold meaningful conversations and make relevant remarks, and there is some experimental evidence highlighting preserved immediate recall of prose (Baddeley & Wilson, 2002, Neuropsychologia, 40; Gooding, Isaac, & Mayes, 2005, Neuropsychologia, 43; Rosenbaum, Gilboa, Levine, Winocur, & Moscovitch, 2009, Neuropsychologia, 47), which suggests that amnesiacs can get the gist. The present experiment used false recognition paradigms to assess whether the reduced rate of false recognition found in amnesic patients may be a consequence of their impaired item-specific memory. It examined the effect of increasing the item-specific memory of amnesic patient DA by bringing her to criterion on relevant study-lists and compared her performance on a false recognition paradigm with a group of 32 healthy young adults. Results indicated that when DA's item-specific memory was increased she was more able to gist and her performance was no different to the healthy young adults. Previous assumptions that gist memory is necessarily damaged in amnesia might therefore be revisited, since the reduced rate of false recognition could be caused by impaired item-specific memory. The experiment also highlights a positive relationship between item-specific and gist memory which has not previously been accounted for in false-recognition experiments.

  18. Perils of intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring: analysis of "false-negative" results in spine surgeries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamkus, Arvydas A; Rice, Kent S; McCaffrey, Michael T

    2018-02-01

    Although some authors have published case reports describing false negatives in intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM), a systematic review of causes of false-negative IONM results is lacking. The objective of this study was to analyze false-negative IONM findings in spine surgery. This is a retrospective cohort analysis. A cohort of 109 patients with new postoperative neurologic deficits was analyzed for possible false-negative IONM reporting. The causes of false-negative IONM reporting were determined. From a cohort of 62,038 monitored spine surgeries, 109 consecutive patients with new postoperative neurologic deficits were reviewed for IONM alarms. Intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring alarms occurred in 87 of 109 surgeries. Nineteen patients with new postoperative neurologic deficits did not have an IONM alarm and surgeons were not warned. In addition, three patients had no interpretable IONM baseline data and no alarms were possible for the duration of the surgery. Therefore, 22 patients were included in the study. The absence of IONM alarms during these 22 surgeries had different origins: "true" false negatives where no waveform changes meeting the alarm criteria occurred despite the appropriate IONM (7); a postoperative development of a deficit (6); failure to monitor the pathway, which became injured (5); the absence of interpretable IONM baseline data which precluded any alarm (3); and technical IONM application issues (1). Overall, the rate of IONM method failing to predict the patient's outcome was very low (0.04%, 22/62,038). Minimizing false negatives requires the application of a proper IONM technique with the limitations of each modality considered in their selection and interpretation. Multimodality IONM provides the most inclusive information, and although it might be impractical to monitor every neural structure that can be at risk, a thorough preoperative consideration of available IONM modalities is important. Delayed

  19. 7 CFR 3550.66 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 3550.66 Section 3550.66 Agriculture... DIRECT SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING LOANS AND GRANTS Section 502 Origination § 3550.66 Interest rate. Loans will be written using the applicable RHS interest rate in effect at loan approval or loan closing...

  20. 5 CFR 1655.7 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 1655.7 Section 1655.7 Administrative Personnel FEDERAL RETIREMENT THRIFT INVESTMENT BOARD LOAN PROGRAM § 1655.7 Interest rate. (a... interest rate established by the Department of the Treasury in effect on the date the TSP record keeper...

  1. 13 CFR 120.932 - Interest rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 13 Business Credit and Assistance 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Interest rate. 120.932 Section 120.932 Business Credit and Assistance SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION BUSINESS LOANS Development Company Loan Program (504) 504 Loans and Debentures § 120.932 Interest rate. The interest rate of the 504 Loan...

  2. 7 CFR 1435.101 - Loan rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Loan rates. 1435.101 Section 1435.101 Agriculture... AGRICULTURE LOANS, PURCHASES, AND OTHER OPERATIONS SUGAR PROGRAM Sugar Loan Program § 1435.101 Loan rates. (a) The national average loan rate for raw cane sugar produced from domestically grown sugarcane is: 18...

  3. 18 CFR 704.39 - Discount rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Discount rate. 704.39... STANDARDS AND PROCEDURES Standards for Plan Formulation and Evaluation § 704.39 Discount rate. (a) The interest rate to be used in plan formulation and evaluation for discounting future benefits and computing...

  4. The Association Between Income and Life Expectancy in the United States, 2001-2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, Raj; Stepner, Michael; Abraham, Sarah; Lin, Shelby; Scuderi, Benjamin; Turner, Nicholas; Bergeron, Augustin; Cutler, David

    2016-04-26

    The relationship between income and life expectancy is well established but remains poorly understood. To measure the level, time trend, and geographic variability in the association between income and life expectancy and to identify factors related to small area variation. Income data for the US population were obtained from 1.4 billion deidentified tax records between 1999 and 2014. Mortality data were obtained from Social Security Administration death records. These data were used to estimate race- and ethnicity-adjusted life expectancy at 40 years of age by household income percentile, sex, and geographic area, and to evaluate factors associated with differences in life expectancy. Pretax household earnings as a measure of income. Relationship between income and life expectancy; trends in life expectancy by income group; geographic variation in life expectancy levels and trends by income group; and factors associated with differences in life expectancy across areas. The sample consisted of 1,408,287,218 person-year observations for individuals aged 40 to 76 years (mean age, 53.0 years; median household earnings among working individuals, $61,175 per year). There were 4,114,380 deaths among men (mortality rate, 596.3 per 100,000) and 2,694,808 deaths among women (mortality rate, 375.1 per 100,000). The analysis yielded 4 results. First, higher income was associated with greater longevity throughout the income distribution. The gap in life expectancy between the richest 1% and poorest 1% of individuals was 14.6 years (95% CI, 14.4 to 14.8 years) for men and 10.1 years (95% CI, 9.9 to 10.3 years) for women. Second, inequality in life expectancy increased over time. Between 2001 and 2014, life expectancy increased by 2.34 years for men and 2.91 years for women in the top 5% of the income distribution, but by only 0.32 years for men and 0.04 years for women in the bottom 5% (P income individuals varied substantially across local areas. In the bottom income

  5. Can false memories be created through nonconscious processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeelenberg, René; Plomp, Gijs; Raaijmakers, Jeroen G W

    2003-09-01

    Presentation times of study words presented in the Deese/Roediger and McDermott (DRM) paradigm varied from 20 to 2000 ms per word in an attempt to replicate the false memory effect following extremely short presentations reported by. Both in a within-subjects design (Experiment 1) and in a between-subjects design (Experiment 2) subjects showed memory for studied words as well as a false memory effect for related critical lures in the 2000-ms condition. However, in the conditions with shorter presentation times (20 ms in Experiment 1; 20 and 40 ms in Experiment 2) no memory for studied words, nor a false memory effect was found. We argue that there is at present no strong evidence supporting the claim for a nonconscious basis of the false memory effect.

  6. Energy and expectation values of the PsH system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for PsH are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1800 explicitly correlated gaussians. The best estimate of the Ps ∞ H energy was -0.789 196 740 hartree which is the lowest variational energy to date. The 2γ annihilation rate for Ps ∞ H was 2.471 78x10 9 s -1

  7. Reduction of false-positive recalls using a computerized mammographic image feature analysis scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Maxine; Pu, Jiantao; Zheng, Bin

    2014-08-01

    The high false-positive recall rate is one of the major dilemmas that significantly reduce the efficacy of screening mammography, which harms a large fraction of women and increases healthcare cost. This study aims to investigate the feasibility of helping reduce false-positive recalls by developing a new computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) scheme based on the analysis of global mammographic texture and density features computed from four-view images. Our database includes full-field digital mammography (FFDM) images acquired from 1052 recalled women (669 positive for cancer and 383 benign). Each case has four images: two craniocaudal (CC) and two mediolateral oblique (MLO) views. Our CAD scheme first computed global texture features related to the mammographic density distribution on the segmented breast regions of four images. Second, the computed features were given to two artificial neural network (ANN) classifiers that were separately trained and tested in a ten-fold cross-validation scheme on CC and MLO view images, respectively. Finally, two ANN classification scores were combined using a new adaptive scoring fusion method that automatically determined the optimal weights to assign to both views. CAD performance was tested using the area under a receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The AUC = 0.793  ±  0.026 was obtained for this four-view CAD scheme, which was significantly higher at the 5% significance level than the AUCs achieved when using only CC (p = 0.025) or MLO (p = 0.0004) view images, respectively. This study demonstrates that a quantitative assessment of global mammographic image texture and density features could provide useful and/or supplementary information to classify between malignant and benign cases among the recalled cases, which may eventually help reduce the false-positive recall rate in screening mammography.

  8. Early false-belief understanding in traditional non-Western societies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrett, H Clark; Broesch, Tanya; Scott, Rose M; He, Zijing; Baillargeon, Renée; Wu, Di; Bolz, Matthias; Henrich, Joseph; Setoh, Peipei; Wang, Jianxin; Laurence, Stephen

    2013-03-22

    The psychological capacity to recognize that others may hold and act on false beliefs has been proposed to reflect an evolved, species-typical adaptation for social reasoning in humans; however, controversy surrounds the developmental timing and universality of this trait. Cross-cultural studies using elicited-response tasks indicate that the age at which children begin to understand false beliefs ranges from 4 to 7 years across societies, whereas studies using spontaneous-response tasks with Western children indicate that false-belief understanding emerges much earlier, consistent with the hypothesis that false-belief understanding is a psychological adaptation that is universally present in early childhood. To evaluate this hypothesis, we used three spontaneous-response tasks that have revealed early false-belief understanding in the West to test young children in three traditional, non-Western societies: Salar (China), Shuar/Colono (Ecuador) and Yasawan (Fiji). Results were comparable with those from the West, supporting the hypothesis that false-belief understanding reflects an adaptation that is universally present early in development.

  9. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  10. 12 CFR 619.9130 - Differential interest rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Differential interest rates. 619.9130 Section 619.9130 Banks and Banking FARM CREDIT ADMINISTRATION FARM CREDIT SYSTEM DEFINITIONS § 619.9130 Differential interest rates. An interest rate program under which different rates of interest may be made...

  11. Life-threatening false alarm rejection in ICU: using the rule-based and multi-channel information fusion method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Chengyu; Zhao, Lina; Tang, Hong; Li, Qiao; Wei, Shoushui; Li, Jianqing

    2016-08-01

    False alarm (FA) rates as high as 86% have been reported in intensive care unit monitors. High FA rates decrease quality of care by slowing staff response times while increasing patient burdens and stresses. In this study, we proposed a rule-based and multi-channel information fusion method for accurately classifying the true or false alarms for five life-threatening arrhythmias: asystole (ASY), extreme bradycardia (EBR), extreme tachycardia (ETC), ventricular tachycardia (VTA) and ventricular flutter/fibrillation (VFB). The proposed method consisted of five steps: (1) signal pre-processing, (2) feature detection and validation, (3) true/false alarm determination for each channel, (4) 'real-time' true/false alarm determination and (5) 'retrospective' true/false alarm determination (if needed). Up to four signal channels, that is, two electrocardiogram signals, one arterial blood pressure and/or one photoplethysmogram signal were included in the analysis. Two events were set for the method validation: event 1 for 'real-time' and event 2 for 'retrospective' alarm classification. The results showed that 100% true positive ratio (i.e. sensitivity) on the training set were obtained for ASY, EBR, ETC and VFB types, and 94% for VTA type, accompanied by the corresponding true negative ratio (i.e. specificity) results of 93%, 81%, 78%, 85% and 50% respectively, resulting in the score values of 96.50, 90.70, 88.89, 92.31 and 64.90, as well as with a final score of 80.57 for event 1 and 79.12 for event 2. For the test set, the proposed method obtained the score of 88.73 for ASY, 77.78 for EBR, 89.92 for ETC, 67.74 for VFB and 61.04 for VTA types, with the final score of 71.68 for event 1 and 75.91 for event 2.

  12. False positive or negative results of shear-wave elastography in differentiating benign from malignant breast masses: analysis of clinical and ultrasonographic characteristics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Mi Young; Choi, Nami; Yang, Jung-Hyun; Yoo, Young Bum; Park, Kyoung Sik

    2015-10-01

    Shear-wave elastography (SWE) has the potential to improve diagnostic performance of conventional ultrasound (US) in differentiating benign from malignant breast masses. To investigate false positive or negative results of SWE in differentiating benign from malignant breast masses and to analyze clinical and imaging characteristics of the masses with false SWE findings. From May to October 2013, 166 breast lesions of 164 consecutive women (mean age, 45.3 ± 10.1 years) who had been scheduled for biopsy were included. Conventional US and SWE were performed in all women before biopsy. Clinical, ultrasonographic morphologic features and SWE parameters (pattern classification and standard deviation [SD]) were recorded and compared with the histopathology results. Patient and lesion factors in the "true" and "false" groups were compared. Of the 166 masses, 118 (71.1%) were benign and 48 (28.9%) were malignant. False SWE features were more frequently observed in benign masses. False positive rates of benign masses and false negative rates of malignancy were 53% and 8.2%, respectively, using SWE pattern analysis and were 22.4% and 10.3%, respectively, using SD values. A lesion boundary of the masses on US (P = 0.039) and younger patient age (P = 0.047) were significantly associated with false SWE findings. These clinical and ultrasonographic features need to be carefully evaluated in performance and interpretation of SWE examinations. © The Foundation Acta Radiologica 2014.

  13. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  14. Violence deaths and its impact on life expectancy: a comparison between Mexico and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vega-López, María Guadalupe; Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach

    2017-09-01

    Using official data, this study analyzed violent deaths (homicide, suicide, events of undetermined intent and deaths due to legal intervention) in Brazil and Mexico in the three-year periods 2002-2004 and 2012-14, the impact of these causes of death on life expectancy in both countries and the role of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL). Abridged life tables were constructed for both countries for both periods. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL between zero and 80 years by selected causes and age groups were calculated for each triennium. The leading cause of YLEL among men was homicide in both periods in Brazil (1.5 years) and in the second period in Mexico (one year). Violent deaths (VD) accounted for around 16% of YLEL in Brazil and 13% in Mexico in 2012-2014. Among women, YLEL due to homicides and suicides showed the greatest relative increase in both countries, although VD accounted for barely 3% of total YLEL. The highest percentage of YLEL due to VDwas found among the 15 to 29 year age groups in both countries and for both sexes. The increase in rates of VD in Mexico, above all among young people, has curbed further increases in life expectancy in recent years, especially among men. Likewise, the high rates of VD in Brazil in both periods have hindered the growth of life expectancy.

  15. Trends Over 4 Decades in Disability-Free Life Expectancy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crimmins, Eileen M; Zhang, Yuan; Saito, Yasuhiko

    2016-07-01

    To examine changes over 40 years (1970-2010) in life expectancy, life expectancy with disability, and disability-free life expectancy for American men and women of all ages. We used mortality rates from US Vital Statistics and data on disability prevalence in the community-dwelling population from the National Health Interview Survey; for the institutional population, we computed disability prevalence from the US Census. We used the Sullivan method to estimate disabled and disability-free life expectancy for 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2010. Over the 40 years, there was a steady increase in both disability-free life expectancy and disabled life expectancy. At birth, increases in disabled life and nondisabled life were equal for men (4.5 years); for women, at birth the increase in life with disability (3.6 years) exceeded the increase in life free of disability (2.7 years). At age 65 years, the increase in disability-free life was greater than the increase in disabled life. Across the life cycle, there was no compression of morbidity, but at age 65 years some compression occurred.

  16. Treating Chronically Ill Diabetic Patients with Limited Life Expectancy: Implications for Performance Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodard, LeChauncy D.; Landrum, Cassie R.; Urech, Tracy H.; Profit, Jochen; Virani, Salim S.; Petersen, Laura A.

    2012-01-01

    Background/Objectives To validly assess quality-of-care differences among providers, performance measurement programs must reliably identify and exclude patients for whom the quality indicator may not be desirable, including those with limited life expectancy. We developed an algorithm to identify patients with limited life expectancy and examined the impact of limited life expectancy on glycemic control and treatment intensification among diabetic patients. Design We identified diabetic patients with coexisting congestive heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, dementia, end-stage liver disease, and/or primary/metastatic cancers with limited life expectancy. To validate our algorithm, we assessed 5-year mortality among patients identified as having limited life expectancy. We compared rates of meeting performance measures for glycemic control between patients with and without limited life expectancy. Among uncontrolled patients, we examined the impact of limited life expectancy on treatment intensification within 90 days. Setting 110 Veterans Administration facilities; October 2006 – September 2007 Participants 888,628 diabetic patients Measurements Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) Quality measurement and performance-based reimbursement systems should acknowledge the different needs of this population. PMID:22260627

  17. Exchange rate smoothing in Hungary

    OpenAIRE

    Karádi, Péter

    2005-01-01

    The paper proposes a structural empirical model capable of examining exchange rate smoothing in the small, open economy of Hungary. The framework assumes the existence of an unobserved and changing implicit exchange rate target. The central bank is assumed to use interest rate policy to obtain this preferred rate in the medium term, while market participants are assumed to form rational expectations about this target and influence exchange rates accordingly. The paper applies unobserved varia...

  18. The contribution of general practice to medical education: expectations and fulfillment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, M H; Rosenthal, J J

    1992-11-01

    The aim of this study was to discover what students expected to learn during their fourth-year general practice attachment, to compare this with their GP tutors' expectations and to determine the extent to which the students' expectations were fulfilled. Questionnaires were used to gather this information; students completed them on the first and last days of the 4-week attachment and tutors shortly after the attachment. Students and their tutors had the highest expectations of the course in helping to raise awareness of the psychological and social aspects of ill health and develop clinical decision-making and management skills. At the end of the course students thought that they had gained most in these areas. Both students and tutors had lower expectations of the course helping to develop physical examination and practical skills and to improve knowledge in certain clinical areas. These were also rated lowest in terms of fulfillment. This study was carried out at a time when it is being suggested that more undergraduate teaching should take place in general practice and that this could include the teaching of practical skills and clinical subjects traditionally associated with hospital-based teaching. The results suggest that the expectations of students and GP tutors would need to be modified, as well as extra resources provided, if there is to be a shift in teaching towards the community.

  19. Treatment non-response: Associations with smoking expectancies among treatment-seeking smokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garey, Lorra; Taha, Samar A; Kauffman, Brooke Y; Manning, Kara F; Neighbors, Clayton; Schmidt, Norman B; Zvolensky, Michael J

    2017-10-01

    Despite the high rate of smoking cessation treatment non-response, relatively little empirical work has examined predictors of treatment non-response. The present study sought to explore the effect of smoking outcome expectancies on treatment response in a sample of treatment-seeking adult daily smokers (N=182; 53.3% female; M age =40.67; SD=13.63). Results indicated that expectancies for smoking to reduce negative affect were related to an increased likelihood of treatment non-response (OR=0.73, CI: 0.54, 0.98). These findings remained significant after controlling for sex, presence of Axis I disorder, tobacco-related health problems, tobacco dependence, anxiety sensitivity, and condition assignment as well as other smoking expectancy dimensions. Post hoc analyses revealed that this relation was stronger for smokers in the integrated care condition vs. the standard care condition (Interaction: OR=1.69, CI: 1.05, 2.73). Additionally, expectancies for smoking to enhance positive affect and provide sensory satisfaction were associated with an increased likelihood of treatment response in the standard care condition. The current findings suggest expectancies that smoking will alleviate negative affect may be a risk factor of smoking cessation treatment non-response. Additionally, findings provide evidence that the relation between smoking expectancies and treatment non-response may differ by smoking cessation treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. MR imaging-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy: Reduction of false-negative biopsies by short-term control MRI 24–48 h after biopsy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bahrs, S.D.; Hattermann, V.; Preibsch, H.; Hahn, M.; Staebler, A.; Claussen, C.D.; Siegmann-Luz, K.C.

    2014-01-01

    Aim: To evaluate whether another contrast-enhanced (CE) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) examination 24–48 h after MRI-guided vacuum-assisted breast biopsy (MRI-VAB) can reduce the rate of false-negative cases. Materials and methods: The study included 252 patients who underwent MRI-VAB for the clarification of 299 lesions. The success of MRI-VAB was assessed at interventional MRI and another CE MRI 24–48 h after the intervention. In cases of successful MRI-VAB (complete or partial lesion removal) and benign histological results, follow-up breast MRI was performed. In cases of unsuccessful biopsy (unchanged lesion), tissue sampling was repeated. False-negative cases were calculated to assess the diagnostic value of MRI follow-up within 2 days after intervention. Results: Ninety-eight malignant (32.8%) and 201 (67.2%) benign lesions were diagnosed using MRI-VAB. At immediate unenhanced control MRI, all lesions were assessed as successfully biopsied. In 18 benign cases (6%), CE MRI after 24–48 h showed an unsuccessful intervention. Further tissue sampling revealed another 13 cancers in these patients. This results in a false-negative rate of 11.7%. Follow-up MRI of the benign lesions presented no further malignancy. Conclusions: MRI-VAB with immediate unenhanced control offers a success rate of 94%. The rate of false-negative biopsies (11.7%) could be reduced to zero by using short-term follow-up MRI. Therefore, a further CE breast MRI 24–48 h after benign MRI-VAB to eliminate missed cancers is recommended. - Highlights: • Some suspicious breast lesions are only seen on MRI. • They can be biopsied by a MRI-guided vacuum-assisted biopsy system. • Inadequate sampling causes some false-negative biopsies. • We evaluate an additional control MRI 24 to 48 hours after biopsy. • A reduced rate of the false-negative biopsies was found