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Sample records for expected rates false

  1. Misconceptions and false expectations in neutral evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS Y. VALENZUELA

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral evolution results from random recurrent mutation and genetic drift. A small part of random evolution, that which is related to protein or DNA polymorphisms, is the subject of the Neutral Theory of Evolution. One of the foundations of this theory is the demonstration that the mutation rate (m is equal to the substitution rate. Since both rates are independent of population size, they are independent of drift, which is dependent upon population size. Neutralists have erroneously equated the substitution rate with the fixation rate, despite the fact that they are antithetical conceptions. The neutralists then applied the random walk stochastic model to justify alleles or bases that were fixated or eliminated. In this model, once the allele or base frequencies reach the monomorphic states (values of 1.0 or 0.0, the absorbing barriers, they can no longer return to the polymorphic state. This operates in a pure mathematical model. If recurrent mutation occurs (as in biotic real systems fixation and elimination are impossible. A population of bacteria in which m=10-8 base mutation (or substitution/site/generation and the reproduction rate is 1000 cell cycle/year should replace all its genome bases in approximately 100,000 years. The expected situation for all sites is polymorphism for the four bases rather than monomorphism at 1.0 or 0.0 frequencies. If fixation and elimination of a base for more than 500,000 years are impossible, then most of the neutral theory is untenable. A new complete neutral model, which allows for recurrent substitutions, is proposed here based on recurrent mutation or substitution and drift alone. The model fits a binomial or Poisson distribution and not a geometric one, as does neutral theory.

  2. A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Antonio I.

    The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer

  3. Introducing False EUR and False EUR exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ausloos, M.; Ivanova, K.

    2000-10-01

    The Euro ( EUR) is a new currency introduced by the European Community. Its exchange rate is very puzzling. We have invented a false Euro ( FEUR) dating back to 1993 and have derived the exchange rates of the FEUR with respect to currencies not belonging to the EUR, i.e., DKK, CHF, JPY and USD. This allows us to search for correlations between the fluctuations preexisting to the introduction of EUR and present ones in such financial data. The detrended fluctuation analysis ( DFA) statistical method is used. This leads to assume a power-law behavior, i.e., a scaling hypothesis, through an exponent α. The latter has demonstrated its usefulness for the investigations of long-range power-law correlations in several types of financial sequences. Our findings show that the α exponent interestingly characterizes fractional Brownian motion of the currency exchange rates between EUR and DKK over a 25 day interval, and usual Brownian motion otherwise and for the three other investigated exchange rates. We can devise an investment strategy based on the localα technique and obtain appreciable gains for the time being.

  4. Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

    2017-01-01

    With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

  5. Production of sensitivity and false alarm rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han Zijie; Kang Wu; Chu Chengsheng; Hao Fanhua; Liu Xiaoya; Cao Lin; Hu Yongbo; Gong Jian; Xiang Yongchun; Zhang Jianhua; Yang Xiangdong

    2007-01-01

    The false alarm rate and sensitivity in nuclear material monitoring system are affected by alarm principle. Two different alarm principles are studied with theory and experiment analysis in this paper. Our research shows that theory analysis and experiment result are accordant very much. This study provides technology support for designing better alarm principle in nuclear material monitoring system. (authors)

  6. Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yen, Yu-Min

    2013-01-01

    Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR), an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS) test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH) procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

  7. Testing jumps via false discovery rate control.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Min Yen

    Full Text Available Many recently developed nonparametric jump tests can be viewed as multiple hypothesis testing problems. For such multiple hypothesis tests, it is well known that controlling type I error often makes a large proportion of erroneous rejections, and such situation becomes even worse when the jump occurrence is a rare event. To obtain more reliable results, we aim to control the false discovery rate (FDR, an efficient compound error measure for erroneous rejections in multiple testing problems. We perform the test via the Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (BNS test statistic, and control the FDR with the Benjamini and Hochberg (BH procedure. We provide asymptotic results for the FDR control. From simulations, we examine relevant theoretical results and demonstrate the advantages of controlling the FDR. The hybrid approach is then applied to empirical analysis on two benchmark stock indices with high frequency data.

  8. Education for All: High Expectations or False Hopes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallak, Jacques

    Although the World Conference on Education for All, held in March 1990 in Jomtien, Thailand, fostered international consensus on educational goals and raised expectations, obstacles to successful achievement of education for all (EFA) must be identified. This paper describes the five most important obstacles--political factors, economic/financial…

  9. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  10. Using the false memory paradigm to test two key elements of alcohol expectancy theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reich, Richard R; Goldman, Mark S; Noll, Jane A

    2004-05-01

    Two key aspects of alcohol expectancy theory--(a) that memories about alcohol effects are stored as relatively cohesive templates of information and (b) that these templates are automatically activated in alcohol-related contexts--were tested using the Deese-Roediger- McDermott false memory paradigm. Alcohol expectancy adjectives were studied, and false memory for expectancy target words was tested in neutral and alcohol contexts. Results indicated that in the alcohol context heavier drinkers showed more false memory for alcohol expectancy words than they did in a neutral context. Differences were not found for lighter drinkers. These results were consistent with alcohol expectancy theory, which was then compared with various forms of association theory in explaining these results and larger issues in the addiction field. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

  11. Assessment method to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reardon, P.T.; Eggers, R.F.; Heaberlin, S.W.

    1982-06-01

    A method has been developed to predict the rate of unresolved false alarms of material loss in a nuclear facility. The computer program DETRES-1 was developed. The program first assigns the true values of control unit components receipts, shipments, beginning and ending inventories. A normal random number generator is used to generate measured values of each component. A loss estimator is calculated from the control unit's measured values. If the loss estimator triggers a detection alarm, a response is simulated. The response simulation is divided into two phases. The first phase is to simulate remeasurement of the components of the detection loss estimator using the same or better measurement methods or inferences from surrounding control units. If this phase of response continues to indicate a material loss, phase of response simulating a production shutdown and comprehensive cleanout is initiated. A new loss estimator is found, and tested against the alarm thresholds. If the estimator value is below the threshold, the original detection alarm is considered resolved; if above the threshold, an unresolved alarm has occurred. A tally is kept of valid alarms, unresolved false alarms, and failure to alarm upon a true loss

  12. Controlling the local false discovery rate in the adaptive Lasso

    KAUST Repository

    Sampson, J. N.

    2013-04-09

    The Lasso shrinkage procedure achieved its popularity, in part, by its tendency to shrink estimated coefficients to zero, and its ability to serve as a variable selection procedure. Using data-adaptive weights, the adaptive Lasso modified the original procedure to increase the penalty terms for those variables estimated to be less important by ordinary least squares. Although this modified procedure attained the oracle properties, the resulting models tend to include a large number of "false positives" in practice. Here, we adapt the concept of local false discovery rates (lFDRs) so that it applies to the sequence, λn, of smoothing parameters for the adaptive Lasso. We define the lFDR for a given λn to be the probability that the variable added to the model by decreasing λn to λn-δ is not associated with the outcome, where δ is a small value. We derive the relationship between the lFDR and λn, show lFDR =1 for traditional smoothing parameters, and show how to select λn so as to achieve a desired lFDR. We compare the smoothing parameters chosen to achieve a specified lFDR and those chosen to achieve the oracle properties, as well as their resulting estimates for model coefficients, with both simulation and an example from a genetic study of prostate specific antigen.

  13. Expert System Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) Processor

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Wicks, Michael C

    2006-01-01

    An artificial intelligence system improves radar signal processor performance by increasing target probability of detection and reducing probability of false alarm in a severe radar clutter environment...

  14. Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2009-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

  15. Decay rate of the false vacuum at high temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eboli, O.J.P.; Marques, G.C.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate, within the semiclassical approach, the high temperature behaviour of the decay rate (Γ) of the metastable vacuum in Field Theory. We exhibit some exactly soluble (1+1) and (3+1) dimensional examples and develop a formal expression for γ in the high temperature limit. (Author) [pt

  16. Expectancy, False Galvanic Skin Response Feedback, and Systematic Desensitization in the Modification of Phobic Behavior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lick, John

    1975-01-01

    This study compared systematic desensitization and two pseudotherapy manipulations with and without false galvanic skin response feedback after every session suggesting improvement in the modification of intense snake and spider fear. The results indicated no consistent differences between the three treatment groups. (Author)

  17. Decay rate of the false vacuum at high tempratures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eboli, O.J.P.; Marques, G.C.

    1984-01-01

    Within the semiclassical approach, the high temperaure behaviour of the decay rate of the metastable vacuum in Field Theory is investigated. It is shown that, contrarily to what has been proposed in the literature, the pre-exponential factor exhibits a nontrivial dependence on the temperature. Furthermore, this dependence is such that at very high temperatures it is as important as the exponential factor and consequently it spoils many conclusions drawn up to now on Cosmological Phase Transitions. (Author) [pt

  18. Sample size reassessment for a two-stage design controlling the false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehetmayer, Sonja; Graf, Alexandra C; Posch, Martin

    2015-11-01

    Sample size calculations for gene expression microarray and NGS-RNA-Seq experiments are challenging because the overall power depends on unknown quantities as the proportion of true null hypotheses and the distribution of the effect sizes under the alternative. We propose a two-stage design with an adaptive interim analysis where these quantities are estimated from the interim data. The second stage sample size is chosen based on these estimates to achieve a specific overall power. The proposed procedure controls the power in all considered scenarios except for very low first stage sample sizes. The false discovery rate (FDR) is controlled despite of the data dependent choice of sample size. The two-stage design can be a useful tool to determine the sample size of high-dimensional studies if in the planning phase there is high uncertainty regarding the expected effect sizes and variability.

  19. A high false positive rate for Kepler planetary candidates of giant stars using asterodensity profiling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sliski, David H.; Kipping, David M.

    2014-01-01

    Asterodensity profiling (AP) is a relatively new technique for studying transit light curves. By comparing the mean stellar density derived from the transit light curve to that found through an independent method, AP provides information on several useful properties such as orbital eccentricity and blended light. We present an AP survey of 41 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs), with a single transiting candidate, for which the target star's mean stellar density has been measured using asteroseismology. The ensemble distribution of the AP measurements for the 31 dwarf stars in our sample shows excellent agreement with the spread expected if the KOIs were genuine and have realistic eccentricities. In contrast, the same test for the 10 giants in our sample reveals significant incompatibility at >4σ confidence. While extreme eccentricities could be invoked, this hypothesis requires four of the KOIs to contact their host star at periastron passage, including the recently claimed confirmation of Kepler-91b. After carefully examining several hypotheses, we conclude that the most plausible explanation is that the transiting objects orbit a different star to that measured with asteroseismology—cases we define as false-positives. Based on the AP distribution, we estimate a false-positive rate (FPR) for Kepler's giant stars with a single transiting object of FPR ≅ 70% ± 30%.

  20. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  1. Intersubject Differences in False Nonmatch Rates for a Fingerprint-Based Authentication System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeroen Breebaart

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The intersubject dependencies of false nonmatch rates were investigated for a minutiae-based biometric authentication process using single enrollment and verification measurements. A large number of genuine comparison scores were subjected to statistical inference tests that indicated that the number of false nonmatches depends on the subject and finger under test. This result was also observed if subjects associated with failures to enroll were excluded from the test set. The majority of the population (about 90% showed a false nonmatch rate that was considerably smaller than the average false nonmatch rate of the complete population. The remaining 10% could be characterized as “goats” due to their relatively high probability for a false nonmatch. The image quality reported by the template extraction module only weakly correlated with the genuine comparison scores. When multiple verification attempts were investigated, only a limited benefit was observed for “goats,” since the conditional probability for a false nonmatch given earlier nonsuccessful attempts increased with the number of attempts. These observations suggest that (1 there is a need for improved identification of “goats” during enrollment (e.g., using dedicated signal-driven analysis and classification methods and/or the use of multiple enrollment images and (2 there should be alternative means for identity verification in the biometric system under test in case of two subsequent false nonmatches.

  2. Reduced nicotine content cigarette advertising: How false beliefs and subjective ratings affect smoking behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercincavage, Melissa; Saddleson, Megan L; Gup, Emily; Halstead, Angela; Mays, Darren; Strasser, Andrew A

    2017-04-01

    Tobacco advertising can create false beliefs about health harms that are reinforced by product design features. Reduced nicotine content (RNC) cigarettes may reduce harm, but research has not addressed advertising influences. This study examined RNC cigarette advertising effects on false harm beliefs, and how these beliefs - along with initial subjective ratings of RNC cigarettes - affect subsequent smoking behaviors. We further explored whether subjective ratings moderate associations between false beliefs and behavior. Seventy-seven daily, non-treatment-seeking smokers (66.2% male) participated in the first 15days of a randomized, controlled, open-label RNC cigarette trial. Participants viewed an RNC cigarette advertisement at baseline before completing a 5-day period of preferred brand cigarette use, followed by a 10-day period of RNC cigarette use (0.6mg nicotine yield). Participants provided pre- and post-advertisement beliefs, and subjective ratings and smoking behaviors for cigarettes smoked during laboratory visits. Viewing the advertisement increased beliefs that RNC cigarettes contain less nicotine and are healthier than regular cigarettes (p'saffected smoking behaviors. Significant interactions of strength and taste ratings with beliefs (p'ssmokers with less negative initial subjective ratings, greater false beliefs were associated with greater RNC cigarette consumption. Smokers may misconstrue RNC cigarettes as less harmful than regular cigarettes. These beliefs, in conjunction with favorable subjective ratings, may increase product use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine-Based Criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G S; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M; Berns, Jeffrey S; Parikh, Chirag R; Wilson, F Perry

    2015-10-07

    Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false-positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false-positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient's true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false-positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%-8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false-positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%-30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%-2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values false-positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Nephrology.

  4. High false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian patients on regular hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Sherif, Assem; Elbahrawy, Ashraf; Aboelfotoh, Atef; Abdelkarim, Magdy; Saied Mohammad, Abdel-Gawad; Abdallah, Abdallah Mahmoud; Mostafa, Sadek; Elmestikawy, Amr; Elwassief, Ahmed; Salah, Mohamed; Abdelbaseer, Mohamed Ali; Abdelwahab, Kouka Saadeldin

    2012-07-01

    Routine serological testing for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection among hemodialysis (HD) patients is currently recommended. A dilemma existed on the value of serology because some investigators reported a high rate of false-negative serologic testing. In this study, we aimed to detect the false-negative rate of anti-HCV among Egyptian HD patients. Seventy-eight HD patients, negative for anti-HCV, anti-HIV, and hepatitis B surface antigen, were tested for HCV RNA by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). In the next step, the viral load was quantified by real-time PCR in RT-PCR-positive patients. Risk factors for HCV infection, as well as clinical and biochemical indicators of liver disease, were compared between false-negative and true-negative anti-HCV HD patients. The frequency of false-negative anti-HCV was 17.9%. Frequency of blood transfusion, duration of HD, dialysis at multiple centers, and diabetes mellitus were not identified as risk factors for HCV infection. The frequency of false-negative results had a linear relation to the prevalence of HCV infection in the HD units. Timely identification of HCV within dialysis units is needed in order to lower the risk of HCV spread within the HD units. The high false-negative rate of anti-HCV among HD patients in our study justifies testing of a large scale of patients for precious assessment of effectiveness of nucleic acid amplification technology testing in screening HD patient. © 2012 The Authors. Hemodialysis International © 2012 International Society for Hemodialysis.

  5. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  6. High estradiol levels improve false memory rates and meta-memory in highly schizotypal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgetts, Sophie; Hausmann, Markus; Weis, Susanne

    2015-10-30

    Overconfidence in false memories is often found in patients with schizophrenia and healthy participants with high levels of schizotypy, indicating an impairment of meta-cognition within the memory domain. In general, cognitive control is suggested to be modulated by natural fluctuations in oestrogen. However, whether oestrogen exerts beneficial effects on meta-memory has not yet been investigated. The present study sought to provide evidence that high levels of schizotypy are associated with increased false memory rates and overconfidence in false memories, and that these processes may be modulated by natural differences in estradiol levels. Using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott paradigm, it was found that highly schizotypal participants with high estradiol produced significantly fewer false memories than those with low estradiol. No such difference was found within the low schizotypy participants. Highly schizotypal participants with high estradiol were also less confident in their false memories than those with low estradiol; low schizotypy participants with high estradiol were more confident. However, these differences only approached significance. These findings suggest that the beneficial effect of estradiol on memory and meta-memory observed in healthy participants is specific to highly schizotypal individuals and might be related to individual differences in baseline dopaminergic activity. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Introducing Bayesian thinking to high-throughput screening for false-negative rate estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Xin; Gao, Lin; Zhang, Xiaolei; Qian, Hong; Rowan, Karen; Mark, David; Peng, Zhengwei; Huang, Kuo-Sen

    2013-10-01

    High-throughput screening (HTS) has been widely used to identify active compounds (hits) that bind to biological targets. Because of cost concerns, the comprehensive screening of millions of compounds is typically conducted without replication. Real hits that fail to exhibit measurable activity in the primary screen due to random experimental errors will be lost as false-negatives. Conceivably, the projected false-negative rate is a parameter that reflects screening quality. Furthermore, it can be used to guide the selection of optimal numbers of compounds for hit confirmation. Therefore, a method that predicts false-negative rates from the primary screening data is extremely valuable. In this article, we describe the implementation of a pilot screen on a representative fraction (1%) of the screening library in order to obtain information about assay variability as well as a preliminary hit activity distribution profile. Using this training data set, we then developed an algorithm based on Bayesian logic and Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the number of true active compounds and potential missed hits from the full library screen. We have applied this strategy to five screening projects. The results demonstrate that this method produces useful predictions on the numbers of false negatives.

  8. Use of the false discovery rate for evaluating clinical safety data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Devan V; Heyse, Joseph F

    2004-06-01

    Clinical adverse experience (AE) data are routinely evaluated using between group P values for every AE encountered within each of several body systems. If the P values are reported and interpreted without multiplicity considerations, there is a potential for an excess of false positive findings. Procedures based on confidence interval estimates of treatment effects have the same potential for false positive findings as P value methods. Excess false positive findings can needlessly complicate the safety profile of a safe drug or vaccine. Accordingly, we propose a novel method for addressing multiplicity in the evaluation of adverse experience data arising in clinical trial settings. The method involves a two-step application of adjusted P values based on the Benjamini and Hochberg false discovery rate (FDR). Data from three moderate to large vaccine trials are used to illustrate our proposed 'Double FDR' approach, and to reinforce the potential impact of failing to account for multiplicity. This work was in collaboration with the late Professor John W. Tukey who coined the term 'Double FDR'.

  9. Mobile natural gas leak surveys indicate that two utilities have high false negative rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    von Fischer, J. C.; Brewer, P. E.; Chamberlain, S.; Gaylord, A.; von Fischer, J.

    2016-12-01

    In the distribution systems that carry natural gas to consumers, leaks need to be discovered for safety reasons and to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, few utilities have adopted newer laser-based technologies that have greater sensitivity and precision, and instead rely on "industry standard" equipment that is far less sensitive. In partnership with the Environmental Defense Fund and Google, we mapped natural gas leaks in the domains of two anonymous utilities (Utility "A" and "B") using high sensitivity Picarro methane analyzers in Google Street View Cars. Surprisingly, when we shared these results with utilities, their survey crews were unable to find most of the leaks that our survey indicated (84% in A and 80% in B). To investigate this phenomenon, our team visited a subset of the leaks in each utility domain (n=32 in A and n=30 in B), and worked alongside utility surveyors to search the leak indication area, using a Los Gatos Research ultraportable methane analyzer to pinpoint leak locations. We found evidence of natural gas leaks at 69% and 68% of the locations in Utilities A and B respectively where survey crews had found nothing. We describe this as a "false negative" rate for the utility because the utility survey falsely indicated that there was no leak at these locations. Of these false negatives, 7% (n=2 of 32 in A, n=2 of 30 in B) were determined to be Grade 1 leaks requiring immediate repair due to high safety risk. Instrument sensitivity appears to explain some of the false negative rates. In particular, use of some industry standard equipment appears to have created a false sense of confidence among utility surveyors that leaks were not present. However, there was also evidence of communication failures and that surveyors did not use optimal approaches in their search. Based on these findings, we suggest that: 1) mobile deployment of high-precision methane analyzers can help find more natural gas leaks, and 2) use of some hand-held survey

  10. Personnel selection and emotional stability certification: establishing a false negative error rate when clinical interviews

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berghausen, P.E. Jr.

    1987-01-01

    The security plans of nuclear plants generally require that all personnel who are to have unescorted access to protected areas or vital islands be screened for emotional instability. Screening typically consists of first administering the MMPI and then conducting a clinical interview. Interviews-by-exception protocols provide for only those employees to be interviewed who have some indications of psychopathology in their MMPI results. A problem arises when the indications are not readily apparent: False negatives are likely to occur, resulting in employees being erroneously granted unescorted access. The present paper describes the development of a predictive equation which permits accurate identification, via analysis of MMPI results, of those employees who are most in need of being interviewed. The predictive equation also permits knowing probably maximum false negative error rates when a given percentage of employees is interviewed

  11. Specificity control for read alignments using an artificial reference genome-guided false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giese, Sven H; Zickmann, Franziska; Renard, Bernhard Y

    2014-01-01

    Accurate estimation, comparison and evaluation of read mapping error rates is a crucial step in the processing of next-generation sequencing data, as further analysis steps and interpretation assume the correctness of the mapping results. Current approaches are either focused on sensitivity estimation and thereby disregard specificity or are based on read simulations. Although continuously improving, read simulations are still prone to introduce a bias into the mapping error quantitation and cannot capture all characteristics of an individual dataset. We introduce ARDEN (artificial reference driven estimation of false positives in next-generation sequencing data), a novel benchmark method that estimates error rates of read mappers based on real experimental reads, using an additionally generated artificial reference genome. It allows a dataset-specific computation of error rates and the construction of a receiver operating characteristic curve. Thereby, it can be used for optimization of parameters for read mappers, selection of read mappers for a specific problem or for filtering alignments based on quality estimation. The use of ARDEN is demonstrated in a general read mapper comparison, a parameter optimization for one read mapper and an application example in single-nucleotide polymorphism discovery with a significant reduction in the number of false positive identifications. The ARDEN source code is freely available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/arden/.

  12. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Portnoy, David, E-mail: david.portnoy@jhuapl.edu [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States); Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer [Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 11100 Johns Hopkins Road, Laurel, MD 20723 (United States)

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of

  13. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-01-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the 'threat' set of spectra

  14. Global parameter optimization for maximizing radioisotope detection probabilities at fixed false alarm rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnoy, David; Feuerbach, Robert; Heimberg, Jennifer

    2011-10-01

    Today there is a tremendous amount of interest in systems that can detect radiological or nuclear threats. Many of these systems operate in extremely high throughput situations where delays caused by false alarms can have a significant negative impact. Thus, calculating the tradeoff between detection rates and false alarm rates is critical for their successful operation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves have long been used to depict this tradeoff. The methodology was first developed in the field of signal detection. In recent years it has been used increasingly in machine learning and data mining applications. It follows that this methodology could be applied to radiological/nuclear threat detection systems. However many of these systems do not fit into the classic principles of statistical detection theory because they tend to lack tractable likelihood functions and have many parameters, which, in general, do not have a one-to-one correspondence with the detection classes. This work proposes a strategy to overcome these problems by empirically finding parameter values that maximize the probability of detection for a selected number of probabilities of false alarm. To find these parameter values a statistical global optimization technique that seeks to estimate portions of a ROC curve is proposed. The optimization combines elements of simulated annealing with elements of genetic algorithms. Genetic algorithms were chosen because they can reduce the risk of getting stuck in local minima. However classic genetic algorithms operate on arrays of Booleans values or bit strings, so simulated annealing is employed to perform mutation in the genetic algorithm. The presented initial results were generated using an isotope identification algorithm developed at Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. The algorithm has 12 parameters: 4 real-valued and 8 Boolean. A simulated dataset was used for the optimization study; the "threat" set of spectra

  15. False positive rate of carbon monoxide saturation by pulse oximetry of emergency department patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weaver, Lindell K; Churchill, Susan K; Deru, Kayla; Cooney, Darryl

    2013-02-01

    Symptoms of carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning are non-specific. Diagnosis requires suspicion of exposure, confirmed by measuring ambient CO levels or carboxyhemoglobin (COHb). An FDA-approved pulse oximeter (Rad-57) can measure CO saturation (S(pCO)). The device accuracy has implications for clinical decision-making. From April 1 to August 15, 2008, study personnel measured S(pCO) and documented demographic factors at time of clinical blood draw, in a convenience sample of 1,363 subjects presenting to the emergency department at Intermountain Medical Center, Murray, Utah. The technician then assayed COHb. COHb and S(pCO) values were compared by subject; false positive or negative values were defined as S(pCO) at least 3 percentage points greater or less than COHb level, reported by the manufacturer to be ± 1 SD in performance. In 1,363 subjects, 613 (45%) were male, 1,141 (84%) were light-skinned, 14 in shock, 4 with CO poisoning, and 122 (9%) met the criteria for a false positive value (range 3-19 percentage points), while 247 (18%) met the criteria for a false negative value (-13 to -3 percentage points). Risks for a false positive S(pCO) reading included being female and having a lower perfusion index. Methemoglobin, body temperature, and blood pressure also appear to influence the S(pCO) accuracy. There was variability among monitors, possibly related to technician technique, as rotation of monitors among technicians was not enforced. While the Rad-57 pulse oximeter functioned within the manufacturer's specifications, clinicians using the Rad-57 should expect some S(pCO) readings to be significantly higher or lower than COHb measurements, and should not use S(pCO) to direct triage or patient management. An elevated S(pCO) could broaden the diagnosis of CO poisoning in patients with non-specific symptoms. However, a negative S(pCO) level in patients suspected of having CO poisoning should never rule out CO poisoning, and should always be confirmed by COHb. © 2013

  16. Mammography Clinical Image Quality and the False Positive Rate in a Canadian Breast Cancer Screening Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guertin, Marie-Hélène; Théberge, Isabelle; Zomahoun, Hervé Tchala Vignon; Dufresne, Michel-Pierre; Pelletier, Éric; Brisson, Jacques

    2018-05-01

    The study sought to determine if mammography quality is associated with the false positive (FP) rate in the Quebec breast cancer screening program in 2004 and 2005. Mammography quality of a random sample of screen-film mammograms was evaluated by an expert radiologist following the criteria of the Canadian Association of Radiologists. For each screening examination, scores ranging from 1 (poor quality) to 5 (excellent quality) were attributed for positioning, compression, contrast, exposure level, sharpness, and artifacts. A final overall quality score (lower or higher) was also given. Poisson regression models with robust estimation of variance and adjusted for potential confounding factors were used to assess associations of mammography quality with the FP rate. Among 1,209 women without cancer, there were 104 (8.6%) FPs. Lower overall mammography quality is associated with an increase in the FP rate (risk ratio [RR], 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0-2.1; P = .07) but this increase was not statistically significant. Artifacts were associated with an increase in the FP rate (RR, 2.1; 95% CI, 1.3-3.3; P = .01) whereas lower quality of exposure level was related to a reduction of the FP rate (RR, 0.4; 95% CI, 0.1-1.0; P = .01). Lower quality scores for all other quality attributes were related to a nonstatistically significant increase in the FP rate of 10%-30%. Artifacts can have a substantial effect on the FP rate. The effect of overall mammography quality on the FP rate may also be substantial and needs to be clarified. Copyright © 2017 Canadian Association of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. A constrained polynomial regression procedure for estimating the local False Discovery Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broët Philippe

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the context of genomic association studies, for which a large number of statistical tests are performed simultaneously, the local False Discovery Rate (lFDR, which quantifies the evidence of a specific gene association with a clinical or biological variable of interest, is a relevant criterion for taking into account the multiple testing problem. The lFDR not only allows an inference to be made for each gene through its specific value, but also an estimate of Benjamini-Hochberg's False Discovery Rate (FDR for subsets of genes. Results In the framework of estimating procedures without any distributional assumption under the alternative hypothesis, a new and efficient procedure for estimating the lFDR is described. The results of a simulation study indicated good performances for the proposed estimator in comparison to four published ones. The five different procedures were applied to real datasets. Conclusion A novel and efficient procedure for estimating lFDR was developed and evaluated.

  18. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    experiments and analysis of population time series and we explain why published valuesmay have overestimated the rates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgentthan reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on theirmarine ecosystems...

  19. A comparative review of estimates of the proportion unchanged genes and the false discovery rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Broberg Per

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In the analysis of microarray data one generally produces a vector of p-values that for each gene give the likelihood of obtaining equally strong evidence of change by pure chance. The distribution of these p-values is a mixture of two components corresponding to the changed genes and the unchanged ones. The focus of this article is how to estimate the proportion unchanged and the false discovery rate (FDR and how to make inferences based on these concepts. Six published methods for estimating the proportion unchanged genes are reviewed, two alternatives are presented, and all are tested on both simulated and real data. All estimates but one make do without any parametric assumptions concerning the distributions of the p-values. Furthermore, the estimation and use of the FDR and the closely related q-value is illustrated with examples. Five published estimates of the FDR and one new are presented and tested. Implementations in R code are available. Results A simulation model based on the distribution of real microarray data plus two real data sets were used to assess the methods. The proposed alternative methods for estimating the proportion unchanged fared very well, and gave evidence of low bias and very low variance. Different methods perform well depending upon whether there are few or many regulated genes. Furthermore, the methods for estimating FDR showed a varying performance, and were sometimes misleading. The new method had a very low error. Conclusion The concept of the q-value or false discovery rate is useful in practical research, despite some theoretical and practical shortcomings. However, it seems possible to challenge the performance of the published methods, and there is likely scope for further developing the estimates of the FDR. The new methods provide the scientist with more options to choose a suitable method for any particular experiment. The article advocates the use of the conjoint information

  20. Instructor Reputation: An Expectancy Relationship Involving Student Ratings and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Raymond P.

    1979-01-01

    Instructor expressiveness and lecture content were combined with instructor reputation in a 2 X 2 X 2 factorial design to assess interaction effects. Results indicated that reputation interacted with expressiveness but not content, in which students rated positive, high-expressive instructors more favorably than negative, high-expressive…

  1. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems....

  2. Low-Rate DDoS Attack Detection Using Expectation of Packet Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-rate Distributed Denial-of-Service (low-rate DDoS attacks are a new challenge to cyberspace, as the attackers send a large amount of attack packets similar to normal traffic, to throttle legitimate flows. In this paper, we propose a measurement—expectation of packet size—that is based on the distribution difference of the packet size to distinguish two typical low-rate DDoS attacks, the constant attack and the pulsing attack, from legitimate traffic. The experimental results, obtained using a series of real datasets with different times and different tolerance factors, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed measurement. In addition, extensive experiments are performed to show that the proposed measurement can detect the low-rate DDoS attacks not only in the short and long terms but also for low packet rates and high packet rates. Furthermore, the false-negative rates and the adjudication distance can be adjusted based on the detection sensitivity requirements.

  3. False negative rate of syndesmotic injury in pronation-external rotation stage IV ankle fractures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwang-Soon Song

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: To investigate false negative rate in the diagnosis of diastasis on initial static anteroposterior radiograph and reliability of intraoperative external rotational stress test for detection of concealed disruption of syndesmosis in pronation external rotation (PER stage IV (Lauge-Hansen ankle fractures. Materials and Methods: We prospectively studied 34 PER stage IV ankle fractures between September 2001 and September 2008. Twenty (59% patients show syndesmotic injury on initial anteroposterior radiographs. We performed an intraoperative external rotation stress test in other 14 patients with suspicious PER stage IV ankle fractures, which showed no defined syndesmotic injury on anteroposterior radiographs inspite of a medial malleolar fracture, an oblique fibular fracture above the syndesmosis and fracture of the posterior tubercle of the tibia. Results: All 14 fractures showed different degrees of tibiofibular clear space (TFCS and tibiofibular overlapping (TFO on the external rotation stress test radiograph compared to the initial plain anteroposterior radiograph. It is important to understand the fracture pattern characterstic of PER stage IV ankle fractures even though it appears normal on anteroposterior radiographs, it is to be confirmed for the concealed syndesmotic injury through a routine intraoperative external rotational stress radiograph.

  4. Improving sensitivity in proteome studies by analysis of false discovery rates for multiple search engines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Andrew R; Siepen, Jennifer A; Hubbard, Simon J; Paton, Norman W

    2009-03-01

    LC-MS experiments can generate large quantities of data, for which a variety of database search engines are available to make peptide and protein identifications. Decoy databases are becoming widely used to place statistical confidence in result sets, allowing the false discovery rate (FDR) to be estimated. Different search engines produce different identification sets so employing more than one search engine could result in an increased number of peptides (and proteins) being identified, if an appropriate mechanism for combining data can be defined. We have developed a search engine independent score, based on FDR, which allows peptide identifications from different search engines to be combined, called the FDR Score. The results demonstrate that the observed FDR is significantly different when analysing the set of identifications made by all three search engines, by each pair of search engines or by a single search engine. Our algorithm assigns identifications to groups according to the set of search engines that have made the identification, and re-assigns the score (combined FDR Score). The combined FDR Score can differentiate between correct and incorrect peptide identifications with high accuracy, allowing on average 35% more peptide identifications to be made at a fixed FDR than using a single search engine.

  5. Detection of exudates in fundus imagery using a constant false-alarm rate (CFAR) detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khanna, Manish; Kapoor, Elina

    2014-05-01

    Diabetic retinopathy is the leading cause of blindness in adults in the United States. The presence of exudates in fundus imagery is the early sign of diabetic retinopathy so detection of these lesions is essential in preventing further ocular damage. In this paper we present a novel technique to automatically detect exudates in fundus imagery that is robust against spatial and temporal variations of background noise. The detection threshold is adjusted dynamically, based on the local noise statics around the pixel under test in order to maintain a pre-determined, constant false alarm rate (CFAR). The CFAR detector is often used to detect bright targets in radar imagery where the background clutter can vary considerably from scene to scene and with angle to the scene. Similarly, the CFAR detector addresses the challenge of detecting exudate lesions in RGB and multispectral fundus imagery where the background clutter often exhibits variations in brightness and texture. These variations present a challenge to common, global thresholding detection algorithms and other methods. Performance of the CFAR algorithm is tested against a publicly available, annotated, diabetic retinopathy database and preliminary testing suggests that performance of the CFAR detector proves to be superior to techniques such as Otsu thresholding.

  6. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Holger; Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

    2016-01-01

    A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition.

  7. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Cramer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs. Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73% in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p=0.03. For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%. The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants’ sociodemographic and health condition.

  8. Decreasing the false alarm rate of arrhythmias in intensive care using a machine learning approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eerikäinen, L.M.; Vanschoren, J.; Rooijakkers, M.J.; Vullings, R.; Aarts, R.M.

    2015-01-01

    We present a novel algorithm for classifying true and false alarms of five life-threatening arrhythmias in intensive care. This algorithm was entered in the PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2015 Reducing False Arrhythmia Alarms in the ICU. The algorithm performs a binary classification of

  9. The effect of information about false negative and false positive rates on people's attitudes towards colorectal cancer screening using faecal occult blood testing (FOBt).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles, Anne; Rodrigues, Vania; Sevdalis, Nick

    2013-11-01

    To examine the impact of numeric risk information about false negative (FN) and false positive (FP) rates in faecal occult blood testing (FOBt) on attitudes towards screening. 95 people aged 45-59, living in England, read 6 hypothetical vignettes presented online about the use of FOB testing to detect bowel cancer, in which information about FN and FP rates was systematically varied. Both verbal and numeric FN risk information reduced people's interest in screening compared with no FN information. Numeric FN risk information reduced people's perceptions of screening effectiveness and lowered perceived trust in the results of screening compared with both verbal FN information and no FN information. FP information did not affect attitudes towards FOB testing. There was limited evidence that FN information reduced interest and perceptions of screening effectiveness more in educated groups. Numeric FN risk information decreased people's perceptions of screening effectiveness and trust in the results of screening but did not affect people's interest in screening anymore than verbal FN risk information. Numeric FN information could be added to patient information without affecting interest in screening, although this needs to be replicated in a larger, more representative sample. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. LOW FALSE POSITIVE RATE OF KEPLER CANDIDATES ESTIMATED FROM A COMBINATION OF SPITZER AND FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Désert, Jean-Michel; Brown, Timothy M.; Charbonneau, David; Torres, Guillermo; Fressin, François; Ballard, Sarah; Latham, David W.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Borucki, William J.; Knutson, Heather A.; Batalha, Natalie M.; Deming, Drake; Ford, Eric B.; Fortney, Jonathan J.; Gilliland, Ronald L.; Seager, Sara

    2015-01-01

    NASA’s Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates during the 4 yr of its nominal mission, yet only a small subset of these candidates have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer Space Telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) among the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital, and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 μm. We use these observations to measures the candidate’s transit depths and infrared magnitudes. An authentic planet produces an achromatic transit depth (neglecting the modest effect of limb darkening). Conversely a bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the transit depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5% and depending on the Kepler Objects of Interest. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3σ. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated

  11. LOW FALSE POSITIVE RATE OF KEPLER CANDIDATES ESTIMATED FROM A COMBINATION OF SPITZER AND FOLLOW-UP OBSERVATIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Désert, Jean-Michel; Brown, Timothy M. [CASA, Department of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, 389-UCB, Boulder, CO 80309 (United States); Charbonneau, David; Torres, Guillermo; Fressin, François; Ballard, Sarah; Latham, David W. [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Bryson, Stephen T.; Borucki, William J. [NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, CA 94035 (United States); Knutson, Heather A. [Division of Geological and Planetary Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Batalha, Natalie M. [San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States); Deming, Drake [Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742-2421 (United States); Ford, Eric B. [University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611 (United States); Fortney, Jonathan J. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 (United States); Gilliland, Ronald L. [Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802 (United States); Seager, Sara, E-mail: desert@colorado.edu [Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02159 (United States)

    2015-05-01

    NASA’s Kepler mission has provided several thousand transiting planet candidates during the 4 yr of its nominal mission, yet only a small subset of these candidates have been confirmed as true planets. Therefore, the most fundamental question about these candidates is the fraction of bona fide planets. Estimating the rate of false positives of the overall Kepler sample is necessary to derive the planet occurrence rate. We present the results from two large observational campaigns that were conducted with the Spitzer Space Telescope during the the Kepler mission. These observations are dedicated to estimating the false positive rate (FPR) among the Kepler candidates. We select a sub-sample of 51 candidates, spanning wide ranges in stellar, orbital, and planetary parameter space, and we observe their transits with Spitzer at 4.5 μm. We use these observations to measures the candidate’s transit depths and infrared magnitudes. An authentic planet produces an achromatic transit depth (neglecting the modest effect of limb darkening). Conversely a bandpass-dependent depth alerts us to the potential presence of a blending star that could be the source of the observed eclipse: a false positive scenario. For most of the candidates (85%), the transit depths measured with Kepler are consistent with the transit depths measured with Spitzer as expected for planetary objects, while we find that the most discrepant measurements are due to the presence of unresolved stars that dilute the photometry. The Spitzer constraints on their own yield FPRs between 5% and depending on the Kepler Objects of Interest. By considering the population of the Kepler field stars, and by combining follow-up observations (imaging) when available, we find that the overall FPR of our sample is low. The measured upper limit on the FPR of our sample is 8.8% at a confidence level of 3σ. This observational result, which uses the achromatic property of planetary transit signals that is not investigated

  12. False discovery rate control incorporating phylogenetic tree increases detection power in microbiome-wide multiple testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Jian; Cao, Hongyuan; Chen, Jun

    2017-09-15

    Next generation sequencing technologies have enabled the study of the human microbiome through direct sequencing of microbial DNA, resulting in an enormous amount of microbiome sequencing data. One unique characteristic of microbiome data is the phylogenetic tree that relates all the bacterial species. Closely related bacterial species have a tendency to exhibit a similar relationship with the environment or disease. Thus, incorporating the phylogenetic tree information can potentially improve the detection power for microbiome-wide association studies, where hundreds or thousands of tests are conducted simultaneously to identify bacterial species associated with a phenotype of interest. Despite much progress in multiple testing procedures such as false discovery rate (FDR) control, methods that take into account the phylogenetic tree are largely limited. We propose a new FDR control procedure that incorporates the prior structure information and apply it to microbiome data. The proposed procedure is based on a hierarchical model, where a structure-based prior distribution is designed to utilize the phylogenetic tree. By borrowing information from neighboring bacterial species, we are able to improve the statistical power of detecting associated bacterial species while controlling the FDR at desired levels. When the phylogenetic tree is mis-specified or non-informative, our procedure achieves a similar power as traditional procedures that do not take into account the tree structure. We demonstrate the performance of our method through extensive simulations and real microbiome datasets. We identified far more alcohol-drinking associated bacterial species than traditional methods. R package StructFDR is available from CRAN. chen.jun2@mayo.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

  13. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  14. Age Differences in the Rejection of False Memories: The Effects of Giving Warning Instructions and Slowing the Presentation Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, Paula; Fernandez, Angel

    2010-01-01

    Two experiments were conducted to examine whether children of different ages differ in their ability to reject associative false memories with the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Two different types of manipulations that are thought to facilitate false memory rejection in adults--slowing the presentation rate and issuing explicit…

  15. Early detection of pharmacovigilance signals with automated methods based on false discovery rates: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Ismaïl; Thiessard, Frantz; Miremont-Salamé, Ghada; Haramburu, Françoise; Kreft-Jais, Carmen; Bégaud, Bernard; Tubert-Bitter, Pascale

    2012-06-01

    Improving the detection of drug safety signals has led several pharmacovigilance regulatory agencies to incorporate automated quantitative methods into their spontaneous reporting management systems. The three largest worldwide pharmacovigilance databases are routinely screened by the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval of proportional reporting ratio (PRR₀₂.₅), the 2.5% quantile of the Information Component (IC₀₂.₅) or the 5% quantile of the Gamma Poisson Shrinker (GPS₀₅). More recently, Bayesian and non-Bayesian False Discovery Rate (FDR)-based methods were proposed that address the arbitrariness of thresholds and allow for a built-in estimate of the FDR. These methods were also shown through simulation studies to be interesting alternatives to the currently used methods. The objective of this work was twofold. Based on an extensive retrospective study, we compared PRR₀₂.₅, GPS₀₅ and IC₀₂.₅ with two FDR-based methods derived from the Fisher's exact test and the GPS model (GPS(pH0) [posterior probability of the null hypothesis H₀ calculated from the Gamma Poisson Shrinker model]). Secondly, restricting the analysis to GPS(pH0), we aimed to evaluate the added value of using automated signal detection tools compared with 'traditional' methods, i.e. non-automated surveillance operated by pharmacovigilance experts. The analysis was performed sequentially, i.e. every month, and retrospectively on the whole French pharmacovigilance database over the period 1 January 1996-1 July 2002. Evaluation was based on a list of 243 reference signals (RSs) corresponding to investigations launched by the French Pharmacovigilance Technical Committee (PhVTC) during the same period. The comparison of detection methods was made on the basis of the number of RSs detected as well as the time to detection. Results comparing the five automated quantitative methods were in favour of GPS(pH0) in terms of both number of detections of true signals and

  16. Manifold adaptation for constant false alarm rate ship detection in South African oceans

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Schwegmann, CP

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available prescreening method. It uses a scalar threshold value to determine how bright a pixel needs to be in order to be classified as a ship and thus inversely how many false alarms are permitted. This paper presents by a method of converting the scalar threshold...

  17. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J. [The University of Sydney, Medical Image Optimisation and Perception Group, Discipline of Medical Radiation Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Lidcombe, NSW (Australia)

    2016-10-15

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  18. Reporting instructions significantly impact false positive rates when reading chest radiographs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robinson, John W.; Brennan, Patrick C.; Mello-Thoms, Claudia; Lewis, Sarah J.

    2016-01-01

    To determine the impact of specific reporting tasks on the performance of radiologists when reading chest radiographs. Ten experienced radiologists read a set of 40 postero-anterior (PA) chest radiographs: 21 nodule free and 19 with a proven solitary nodule. There were two reporting conditions: an unframed task (UFT) to report any abnormality and a framed task (FT) reporting only lung nodule/s. Jackknife free-response operating characteristic (JAFROC) figure of merit (FOM), specificity, location sensitivity and number of true positive (TP), false positive (FP), true negative (TN) and false negative (FN) decisions were used for analysis. JAFROC FOM for tasks showed a significant reduction in performance for framed tasks (P = 0.006) and an associated decrease in specificity (P = 0.011) but no alteration to the location sensitivity score. There was a significant increase in number of FP decisions made during framed versus unframed tasks for nodule-containing (P = 0.005) and nodule-free (P = 0.011) chest radiographs. No significant differences in TP were recorded. Radiologists report more FP decisions when given specific reporting instructions to search for nodules on chest radiographs. The relevance of clinical history supplied to radiologists is called into question and may induce a negative effect. (orig.)

  19. Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

    2003-06-01

    The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

  20. Misleading Measurements: How Ohio School Ratings Foster False Comparisons. Executive Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    DePaoli, Jennifer

    2014-01-01

    Policy Matters Ohio looked at schools rated the highest over a two-year period in each of Ohio's eight largest urban districts. State, school, and district data were used to examine schools--district-run and charter--that were rated Excellent or higher for either the 2010-11 or the 2011-12 school year or both. The number of schools examined ranged…

  1. Effect of gravity on false-vacuum decay rates for O(4)-symmetric bubble nucleation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samuel, D.A.; Hiscock, W.A.

    1991-01-01

    The self-gravity of quantum fields is often considered to be a negligible perturbation upon a background spacetime and not of much physical interest. Its importance is determined by the ratio of the mass of the field to the Planck mass, this ratio being very small for those fields that we are most familiar in dealing with. However, it is conceivable that either in the very early Universe or even today a false-vacuum decay could occur associated with a field of appreciable mass. The effect of self-gravity upon false-vacuum decay was initially studied within the ''thin-wall'' approximation by Coleman and De Luccia. Their analysis involved the approximate solution of the coupled Euclideanized field and Einstein equations with the assumption of O(4)-symmetric bubble nucleation. In this paper we consider the range of validity of the ''thin-wall'' approximation by comparing the Coleman--De Luccia results with exact numerical results for a quartic polynomial potential. We also extend the analysis into regimes for which the ''thin-wall'' approximation is inapplicable. In the case of an initially de Sitter space decaying into Minkowski space, we find a smooth transition between the Coleman--De Luccia mode of bubble formation and the Hawking-Moss transition, wherein the entire spacetime tunnels ''at once'' to the maximum of the potential. In the case of the decay of an initially Minkowski space to an anti--de Sitter space, we find that there is a ''forbidden region'' of vacuum potential parameters for which decay is not possible. At energies far below the Planck scale, the boundary of this region is accurately described by the thin-wall prediction obtained by Coleman and De Luccia. At energies near the Planck scale, however, the actual ''forbidden region'' is significantly smaller than predicted by the thin-wall approximation; thus, vacuum decays are possible which appear to be forbidden by thin-wall calculations

  2. Can concurrent core biopsy and fine needle aspiration biopsy improve the false negative rate of sonographically detectable breast lesions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Tsai-Wang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The aims of this study were to determine the accuracy of concurrent core needle biopsy (CNB and fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB for breast lesions and to estimate the false-negative rate using the two methods combined. Methods Over a seven-year period, 2053 patients with sonographically detectable breast lesions underwent concurrent ultrasound-guided CNB and FNAB. The sonographic and histopathological findings were classified into four categories: benign, indeterminate, suspicious, and malignant. The histopathological findings were compared with the definitive excision pathology results. Patients with benign core biopsies underwent a detailed review to determine the false-negative rate. The correlations between the ultrasonography, FNAB, and CNB were determined. Results Eight hundred eighty patients were diagnosed with malignant disease, and of these, 23 (2.5% diagnoses were found to be false-negative after core biopsy. After an intensive review of discordant FNAB results, the final false-negative rate was reduced to 1.1% (p-value = 0.025. The kappa coefficients for correlations between methods were 0.304 (p-value p-value p-value Conclusions Concurrent CNB and FNAB under ultrasound guidance can provide accurate preoperative diagnosis of breast lesions and provide important information for appropriate treatment. Identification of discordant results using careful radiological-histopathological correlation can reduce the false-negative rate.

  3. False-Negative Rate of Gram-Stain Microscopy for Diagnosis of Septic Arthritis: Suggestions for Improvement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul Stirling

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We quantify the false-negative diagnostic rate of septic arthritis using Gram-stain microscopy of synovial fluid and compare this to values reported in the peer-reviewed literature. We propose a method of improving the diagnostic value of Gram-stain microscopy using Lithium Heparin containers that prevent synovial fluid coagulation. Retrospective study of the Manchester Royal Infirmary microbiology database of patients undergoing synovial fluid Gram-stain and culture between December 2003 and March 2012 was undertaken. The initial cohort of 1896 synovial fluid analyses for suspected septic arthritis was reduced to 143 after exclusion criteria were applied. Analysis of our Gram-stain microscopy yielded 111 false-negative results from a cohort size of 143 positive synovial fluid cultures, giving a false-negative rate of 78%. We report a false-negative rate of Gram-stain microscopy for septic arthritis of 78%. Clinicians should therefore avoid the investigation until a statistically significant data set confirms its efficacy. The investigation's value could be improved by using Lithium Heparin containers to collect homogenous synovial fluid samples. Ongoing research aims to establish how much this could reduce the false-negative rate.

  4. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  5. Completion Rates--A False Trail to Measuring Course Quality? Let's Call in the HEROEs Instead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creelman, Alastair; Reneland-Forsman, Linda

    2013-01-01

    Statistics are often used to reveal significant differences between online and campus-based education. The existence of online courses with low completion rates is often used to justify the inherent inferiority of online education compared to traditional classroom teaching. Our study revealed that this type of conclusion has little substance. We…

  6. False-Positive Rate of AKI Using Consensus Creatinine–Based Criteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jennie; Fernandez, Hilda; Shashaty, Michael G.S.; Negoianu, Dan; Testani, Jeffrey M.; Berns, Jeffrey S.; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background and objectives Use of small changes in serum creatinine to diagnose AKI allows for earlier detection but may increase diagnostic false–positive rates because of inherent laboratory and biologic variabilities of creatinine. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We examined serum creatinine measurement characteristics in a prospective observational clinical reference cohort of 2267 adult patients with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria and used these data to create a simulation cohort to model AKI false–positive rates. We simulated up to seven successive blood draws on an equal population of hypothetical patients with unchanging true serum creatinine values. Error terms generated from laboratory and biologic variabilities were added to each simulated patient’s true serum creatinine value to obtain the simulated measured serum creatinine for each blood draw. We determined the proportion of patients who would be erroneously diagnosed with AKI by Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes creatinine criteria. Results Within the clinical cohort, 75.0% of patients received four serum creatinine draws within at least one 48-hour period during hospitalization. After four simulated creatinine measurements that accounted for laboratory variability calculated from assay characteristics and 4.4% of biologic variability determined from the clinical cohort and publicly available data, the overall false–positive rate for AKI diagnosis was 8.0% (interquartile range =7.9%–8.1%), whereas patients with true serum creatinine ≥1.5 mg/dl (representing 21% of the clinical cohort) had a false–positive AKI diagnosis rate of 30.5% (interquartile range =30.1%–30.9%) versus 2.0% (interquartile range =1.9%–2.1%) in patients with true serum creatinine values false–positive rates caused by inherent variability of serum creatinine at higher baseline values, potentially misclassifying patients with CKD in AKI studies. PMID

  7. A broken promise: microbiome differential abundance methods do not control the false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawinkel, Stijn; Mattiello, Federico; Bijnens, Luc; Thas, Olivier

    2017-08-22

    High-throughput sequencing technologies allow easy characterization of the human microbiome, but the statistical methods to analyze microbiome data are still in their infancy. Differential abundance methods aim at detecting associations between the abundances of bacterial species and subject grouping factors. The results of such methods are important to identify the microbiome as a prognostic or diagnostic biomarker or to demonstrate efficacy of prodrug or antibiotic drugs. Because of a lack of benchmarking studies in the microbiome field, no consensus exists on the performance of the statistical methods. We have compared a large number of popular methods through extensive parametric and nonparametric simulation as well as real data shuffling algorithms. The results are consistent over the different approaches and all point to an alarming excess of false discoveries. This raises great doubts about the reliability of discoveries in past studies and imperils reproducibility of microbiome experiments. To further improve method benchmarking, we introduce a new simulation tool that allows to generate correlated count data following any univariate count distribution; the correlation structure may be inferred from real data. Most simulation studies discard the correlation between species, but our results indicate that this correlation can negatively affect the performance of statistical methods. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Prospective assessment of the false positive rate of the Australian snake venom detection kit in healthy human samples.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nimorakiotakis, Vasilios Bill; Winkel, Kenneth D

    2016-03-01

    The Snake Venom Detection Kit (SVDK; bioCSL Pty Ltd, Australia) distinguishes venom from the five most medically significant snake immunotypes found in Australia. This study assesses the rate of false positives that, by definition, refers to a positive assay finding in a sample from someone who has not been bitten by a venomous snake. Control unbroken skin swabs, simulated bite swabs and urine specimens were collected from 61 healthy adult volunteers [33 males and 28 females] for assessment. In all controls, simulated bite site and urine samples [a total of 183 tests], the positive control well reacted strongly within one minute and no test wells reacted during the ten minute incubation period. However, in two urine tests, the negative control well gave a positive reaction (indicating an uninterpretable test). A 95% confidence interval for the false positive rate, on a per-patient rate, derived from the findings of this study, would extend from 0% to 6% and, on a per-test basis, it would be 0-2%. It appears to be a very low incidence (0-6%) of intrinsic true false positives for the SVDK. The clinical impresssion of a high SVDK false positive rate may be mostly related to operator error. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. False-Positive Rate Determination of Protein Target Discovery using a Covalent Modification- and Mass Spectrometry-Based Proteomics Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strickland, Erin C.; Geer, M. Ariel; Hong, Jiyong; Fitzgerald, Michael C.

    2014-01-01

    Detection and quantitation of protein-ligand binding interactions is important in many areas of biological research. Stability of proteins from rates of oxidation (SPROX) is an energetics-based technique for identifying the proteins targets of ligands in complex biological mixtures. Knowing the false-positive rate of protein target discovery in proteome-wide SPROX experiments is important for the correct interpretation of results. Reported here are the results of a control SPROX experiment in which chemical denaturation data is obtained on the proteins in two samples that originated from the same yeast lysate, as would be done in a typical SPROX experiment except that one sample would be spiked with the test ligand. False-positive rates of 1.2-2.2 % and analysis of the isobaric mass tag (e.g., iTRAQ®) reporter ions used for peptide quantitation. Our results also suggest that technical replicates can be used to effectively eliminate such false positives that result from this random error, as is demonstrated in a SPROX experiment to identify yeast protein targets of the drug, manassantin A. The impact of ion purity in the tandem mass spectral analyses and of background oxidation on the false-positive rate of protein target discovery using SPROX is also discussed.

  10. Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk, J.M.; Knot, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the

  11. Improved detection of common variants associated with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder using pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreassen, Ole A; Thompson, Wesley K; Schork, Andrew J

    2013-01-01

    are currently lacking. Here, we use a genetic pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate (FDR) method on GWAS summary statistics data to identify new loci associated with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorders (BD), two highly heritable disorders with significant missing heritability...... associated with both SCZ and BD (conjunction FDR). Together, these findings show the feasibility of genetic pleiotropy-informed methods to improve gene discovery in SCZ and BD and indicate overlapping genetic mechanisms between these two disorders....

  12. Impact of Formal Mentoring on Freshmen Expectations, Graduation Rates, and GPAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nancy C.; Heilmann, Sharon G.; Johnson, Adrianne; Taylor, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the expectations, graduation rates, and GPAs of participants (n = 113) in a formal mentorship program, "Freshmen Focus," at a small, rural Midwestern high school through the framework of organizational socialization theory (Van Maanen & Schein, 1977). Findings indicate freshmen students formed…

  13. Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste

    2010-01-01

    A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

  14. Attention Cueing and Activity Equally Reduce False Alarm Rate in Visual-Auditory Associative Learning through Improving Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nikouei Mahani, Mohammad-Ali; Haghgoo, Hojjat Allah; Azizi, Solmaz; Nili Ahmadabadi, Majid

    2016-01-01

    In our daily life, we continually exploit already learned multisensory associations and form new ones when facing novel situations. Improving our associative learning results in higher cognitive capabilities. We experimentally and computationally studied the learning performance of healthy subjects in a visual-auditory sensory associative learning task across active learning, attention cueing learning, and passive learning modes. According to our results, the learning mode had no significant effect on learning association of congruent pairs. In addition, subjects' performance in learning congruent samples was not correlated with their vigilance score. Nevertheless, vigilance score was significantly correlated with the learning performance of the non-congruent pairs. Moreover, in the last block of the passive learning mode, subjects significantly made more mistakes in taking non-congruent pairs as associated and consciously reported lower confidence. These results indicate that attention and activity equally enhanced visual-auditory associative learning for non-congruent pairs, while false alarm rate in the passive learning mode did not decrease after the second block. We investigated the cause of higher false alarm rate in the passive learning mode by using a computational model, composed of a reinforcement learning module and a memory-decay module. The results suggest that the higher rate of memory decay is the source of making more mistakes and reporting lower confidence in non-congruent pairs in the passive learning mode.

  15. Characterization and correction of the false-discovery rates in resting state connectivity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santosa, Hendrik; Aarabi, Ardalan; Perlman, Susan B.; Huppert, Theodore J.

    2017-05-01

    Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is a noninvasive neuroimaging technique that uses low levels of red to near-infrared light to measure changes in cerebral blood oxygenation. Spontaneous (resting state) functional connectivity (sFC) has become a critical tool for cognitive neuroscience for understanding task-independent neural networks, revealing pertinent details differentiating healthy from disordered brain function, and discovering fluctuations in the synchronization of interacting individuals during hyperscanning paradigms. Two of the main challenges to sFC-NIRS analysis are (i) the slow temporal structure of both systemic physiology and the response of blood vessels, which introduces false spurious correlations, and (ii) motion-related artifacts that result from movement of the fNIRS sensors on the participants' head and can introduce non-normal and heavy-tailed noise structures. In this work, we systematically examine the false-discovery rates of several time- and frequency-domain metrics of functional connectivity for characterizing sFC-NIRS. Specifically, we detail the modifications to the statistical models of these methods needed to avoid high levels of false-discovery related to these two sources of noise in fNIRS. We compare these analysis procedures using both simulated and experimental resting-state fNIRS data. Our proposed robust correlation method has better performance in terms of being more reliable to the noise outliers due to the motion artifacts.

  16. Pyrosequencing as a tool for the detection of Phytophthora species: error rate and risk of false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vettraino, A M; Bonants, P; Tomassini, A; Bruni, N; Vannini, A

    2012-11-01

    To evaluate the accuracy of pyrosequencing for the description of Phytophthora communities in terms of taxa identification and risk of assignment for false Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs). Pyrosequencing of Internal Transcribed Spacer 1 (ITS1) amplicons was used to describe the structure of a DNA mixture comprising eight Phytophthora spp. and Pythium vexans. Pyrosequencing resulted in 16 965 reads, detecting all species in the template DNA mixture. Reducing the ITS1 sequence identity threshold resulted in a decrease in numbers of unmatched reads but a concomitant increase in the numbers of false MOTUs. The total error rate was 0·63% and comprised mainly mismatches (0·25%) Pyrosequencing of ITS1 region is an efficient and accurate technique for the detection and identification of Phytophthora spp. in environmental samples. However, the risk of allocating false MOTUs, even when demonstrated to be low, may require additional validation with alternative detection methods. Phytophthora spp. are considered among the most destructive groups of invasive plant pathogens, affecting thousands of cultivated and wild plants worldwide. Simultaneous early detection of Phytophthora complexes in environmental samples offers an unique opportunity for the interception of known and unknown species along pathways of introduction, along with the identification of these organisms in invaded environments. © 2012 The Authors Letters in Applied Microbiology © 2012 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  17. Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Schäfer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

  18. Growth rate for the expected value of a generalized random Fibonacci sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janvresse, Elise; De la Rue, Thierry; Rittaud, BenoIt

    2009-01-01

    We study the behaviour of generalized random Fibonacci sequences defined by the relation g n = |λg n-1 ± g n-2 |, where the ± sign is given by tossing an unbalanced coin, giving probability p to the + sign. We prove that the expected value of g n grows exponentially fast for any 0 (2 - λ)/4 when λ is of the form 2cos(π/k) for some fixed integer k ≥ 3. In both cases, we give an algebraic expression for the growth rate

  19. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  20. Integrated Proteomic Pipeline Using Multiple Search Engines for a Proteogenomic Study with a Controlled Protein False Discovery Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Gun Wook; Hwang, Heeyoun; Kim, Kwang Hoe; Lee, Ju Yeon; Lee, Hyun Kyoung; Park, Ji Yeong; Ji, Eun Sun; Park, Sung-Kyu Robin; Yates, John R; Kwon, Kyung-Hoon; Park, Young Mok; Lee, Hyoung-Joo; Paik, Young-Ki; Kim, Jin Young; Yoo, Jong Shin

    2016-11-04

    In the Chromosome-Centric Human Proteome Project (C-HPP), false-positive identification by peptide spectrum matches (PSMs) after database searches is a major issue for proteogenomic studies using liquid-chromatography and mass-spectrometry-based large proteomic profiling. Here we developed a simple strategy for protein identification, with a controlled false discovery rate (FDR) at the protein level, using an integrated proteomic pipeline (IPP) that consists of four engrailed steps as follows. First, using three different search engines, SEQUEST, MASCOT, and MS-GF+, individual proteomic searches were performed against the neXtProt database. Second, the search results from the PSMs were combined using statistical evaluation tools including DTASelect and Percolator. Third, the peptide search scores were converted into E-scores normalized using an in-house program. Last, ProteinInferencer was used to filter the proteins containing two or more peptides with a controlled FDR of 1.0% at the protein level. Finally, we compared the performance of the IPP to a conventional proteomic pipeline (CPP) for protein identification using a controlled FDR of <1% at the protein level. Using the IPP, a total of 5756 proteins (vs 4453 using the CPP) including 477 alternative splicing variants (vs 182 using the CPP) were identified from human hippocampal tissue. In addition, a total of 10 missing proteins (vs 7 using the CPP) were identified with two or more unique peptides, and their tryptic peptides were validated using MS/MS spectral pattern from a repository database or their corresponding synthetic peptides. This study shows that the IPP effectively improved the identification of proteins, including alternative splicing variants and missing proteins, in human hippocampal tissues for the C-HPP. All RAW files used in this study were deposited in ProteomeXchange (PXD000395).

  1. Expected Rates of Renewable Energy Sources in Meeting of Energy Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Taking the expected growth of the world’s population and the estimated technological development and increase in living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. On the basis of the actual production data of 380-400 EJ.year-1 in 2000 and data in publications, the author assumes the total energy demand to be 750-800 EJ.year-1 for 2030, 600-1,000 EJ.year-1 for 2050 and 900-3,600 EJ.year-1 for 2100. The author analyses the appearance of the different energy types in the history of mankind giving the specific heat content and heating value of the different fuels. The environmental advantages, disadvantages, technical and economic limits of application involved in the use of primary renewable energy sources are also dealt with. The analysis of the data in the different prognoses in publications gives the result that fossil fuels will meet 84-85 % of the total energy demand until 2030 in the foreseeable future. In 2050, the fossil rate may be 50-70 % and the rate of renewables may amount to 20-40 %. In 2100, the maximum fossil rate may be 40-50 % with a 30-60 % maximum rate of renewables. On the basis of the results of investigation, the general conclusion may be that the realistically exploitable amount of renewable energy sources is not so unlimitedly high as many suppose. Therefore, it is an illusion to expect that the replacement or substitution of mineral fuels and nuclear energy can be solved relying solely on renewable energies.

  2. Does video-assisted mediastinoscopy offer lower false-negative rates for subcarinal lymph nodes compared with standard cervical mediastinoscopy?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Citak, Necati; Buyukkale, Songul; Kok, Abdulaziz; Celikten, Alper; Metin, Muzaffer; Sayar, Adnan; Gurses, Atilla

    2014-10-01

    Theoretically, video-assisted mediastinoscopy (VAM) offers improved staging of subcarinal lymph nodes (LNs) compared with standard cervical mediastinoscopy (SCM). Materials and Between 2006 and 2011, 553 patients (SCM, n = 293; VAM, n = 260) with non-small cell lung carcinoma who underwent mediastinoscopy were investigated. Mediastinoscopy was performed only in select patients based on computed tomography (CT) or positron emission tomography CT scans in our center. The mean number of LNs and stations sampled per case was significantly higher with VAM (n = 7.65 ± 1.68 and n = 4.22 ± 0.83) than with SCM (n = 6.91 ± 1.65 and 3.92 ± 86.4; p < 0.001). The percentage of patients sampled in station 7 was significantly higher with VAM (98.8%) than with SCM (93.8%; p = 0.002). Mediastinal LN metastasis was observed in 114 patients by mediastinoscopy. The remaining 439 patients (203 patients in VAM and 236 in SCM) underwent thoracotomy and systematic mediastinal lymphadenectomy (SML). SML showed mediastinal nodal disease in 23 patients (false-negative [FN] rate, 5.2%). The FN rate was higher with SCM (n = 14, 5.9%) than with VAM (n = 9, 4.4%), although this difference was not statistically significant (p = 0.490). Station 7 was the most predominant station for FN results (n = 15). The FN rate of station 7 was found to be higher with SCM (n = 9, 3.8%) than with the VAM group (n = 6, 2.9%; p = 0.623). FN were more common in mediastinoscopy of subcarinal LNs. VAM allows higher rates of sampling of mediastinal LN stations and station 7, although it did not improve staging of subcarinal LNs. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  3. Assessment of Metabolome Annotation Quality: A Method for Evaluating the False Discovery Rate of Elemental Composition Searches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsuda, Fumio; Shinbo, Yoko; Oikawa, Akira; Hirai, Masami Yokota; Fiehn, Oliver; Kanaya, Shigehiko; Saito, Kazuki

    2009-01-01

    Background In metabolomics researches using mass spectrometry (MS), systematic searching of high-resolution mass data against compound databases is often the first step of metabolite annotation to determine elemental compositions possessing similar theoretical mass numbers. However, incorrect hits derived from errors in mass analyses will be included in the results of elemental composition searches. To assess the quality of peak annotation information, a novel methodology for false discovery rates (FDR) evaluation is presented in this study. Based on the FDR analyses, several aspects of an elemental composition search, including setting a threshold, estimating FDR, and the types of elemental composition databases most reliable for searching are discussed. Methodology/Principal Findings The FDR can be determined from one measured value (i.e., the hit rate for search queries) and four parameters determined by Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicate that relatively high FDR values (30–50%) were obtained when searching time-of-flight (TOF)/MS data using the KNApSAcK and KEGG databases. In addition, searches against large all-in-one databases (e.g., PubChem) always produced unacceptable results (FDR >70%). The estimated FDRs suggest that the quality of search results can be improved not only by performing more accurate mass analysis but also by modifying the properties of the compound database. A theoretical analysis indicates that FDR could be improved by using compound database with smaller but higher completeness entries. Conclusions/Significance High accuracy mass analysis, such as Fourier transform (FT)-MS, is needed for reliable annotation (FDR metabolome data. PMID:19847304

  4. Sample size calculation while controlling false discovery rate for differential expression analysis with RNA-sequencing experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bi, Ran; Liu, Peng

    2016-03-31

    RNA-Sequencing (RNA-seq) experiments have been popularly applied to transcriptome studies in recent years. Such experiments are still relatively costly. As a result, RNA-seq experiments often employ a small number of replicates. Power analysis and sample size calculation are challenging in the context of differential expression analysis with RNA-seq data. One challenge is that there are no closed-form formulae to calculate power for the popularly applied tests for differential expression analysis. In addition, false discovery rate (FDR), instead of family-wise type I error rate, is controlled for the multiple testing error in RNA-seq data analysis. So far, there are very few proposals on sample size calculation for RNA-seq experiments. In this paper, we propose a procedure for sample size calculation while controlling FDR for RNA-seq experimental design. Our procedure is based on the weighted linear model analysis facilitated by the voom method which has been shown to have competitive performance in terms of power and FDR control for RNA-seq differential expression analysis. We derive a method that approximates the average power across the differentially expressed genes, and then calculate the sample size to achieve a desired average power while controlling FDR. Simulation results demonstrate that the actual power of several popularly applied tests for differential expression is achieved and is close to the desired power for RNA-seq data with sample size calculated based on our method. Our proposed method provides an efficient algorithm to calculate sample size while controlling FDR for RNA-seq experimental design. We also provide an R package ssizeRNA that implements our proposed method and can be downloaded from the Comprehensive R Archive Network ( http://cran.r-project.org ).

  5. Improved Detection of Common Variants Associated with Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder Using Pleiotropy-Informed Conditional False Discovery Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreassen, Ole A.; Thompson, Wesley K.; Schork, Andrew J.; Ripke, Stephan; Mattingsdal, Morten; Kelsoe, John R.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; O'Donovan, Michael C.; Rujescu, Dan; Werge, Thomas; Sklar, Pamela; Roddey, J. Cooper; Chen, Chi-Hua; McEvoy, Linda; Desikan, Rahul S.; Djurovic, Srdjan; Dale, Anders M.

    2013-01-01

    Several lines of evidence suggest that genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have the potential to explain more of the “missing heritability” of common complex phenotypes. However, reliable methods to identify a larger proportion of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that impact disease risk are currently lacking. Here, we use a genetic pleiotropy-informed conditional false discovery rate (FDR) method on GWAS summary statistics data to identify new loci associated with schizophrenia (SCZ) and bipolar disorders (BD), two highly heritable disorders with significant missing heritability. Epidemiological and clinical evidence suggest similar disease characteristics and overlapping genes between SCZ and BD. Here, we computed conditional Q–Q curves of data from the Psychiatric Genome Consortium (SCZ; n = 9,379 cases and n = 7,736 controls; BD: n = 6,990 cases and n = 4,820 controls) to show enrichment of SNPs associated with SCZ as a function of association with BD and vice versa with a corresponding reduction in FDR. Applying the conditional FDR method, we identified 58 loci associated with SCZ and 35 loci associated with BD below the conditional FDR level of 0.05. Of these, 14 loci were associated with both SCZ and BD (conjunction FDR). Together, these findings show the feasibility of genetic pleiotropy-informed methods to improve gene discovery in SCZ and BD and indicate overlapping genetic mechanisms between these two disorders. PMID:23637625

  6. False Advertising

    OpenAIRE

    Rhodes, Andrew; Wilson, Chris M

    2016-01-01

    There is widespread evidence that some firms use false advertising to overstate the value of their products. We consider a model in which a policymaker is able to punish such false claims. We characterize an equilibrium where false advertising actively influences rational buyers, and analyze the effects of policy under different welfare objectives. We establish precise conditions where policy optimally permits a positive level of false advertising, and show how these conditions vary intuitive...

  7. Comparison of seven methods for producing Affymetrix expression scores based on False Discovery Rates in disease profiling data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gruber Stephen B

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A critical step in processing oligonucleotide microarray data is combining the information in multiple probes to produce a single number that best captures the expression level of a RNA transcript. Several systematic studies comparing multiple methods for array processing have used tightly controlled calibration data sets as the basis for comparison. Here we compare performances for seven processing methods using two data sets originally collected for disease profiling studies. An emphasis is placed on understanding sensitivity for detecting differentially expressed genes in terms of two key statistical determinants: test statistic variability for non-differentially expressed genes, and test statistic size for truly differentially expressed genes. Results In the two data sets considered here, up to seven-fold variation across the processing methods was found in the number of genes detected at a given false discovery rate (FDR. The best performing methods called up to 90% of the same genes differentially expressed, had less variable test statistics under randomization, and had a greater number of large test statistics in the experimental data. Poor performance of one method was directly tied to a tendency to produce highly variable test statistic values under randomization. Based on an overall measure of performance, two of the seven methods (Dchip and a trimmed mean approach are superior in the two data sets considered here. Two other methods (MAS5 and GCRMA-EB are inferior, while results for the other three methods are mixed. Conclusions Choice of processing method has a major impact on differential expression analysis of microarray data. Previously reported performance analyses using tightly controlled calibration data sets are not highly consistent with results reported here using data from human tissue samples. Performance of array processing methods in disease profiling and other realistic biological studies should be

  8. Application of false discovery rate control in the assessment of decrease of FDG uptake in early Alzheimer dementia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Dong Soo; Kang, Hye Jin; Jang, Myung Jin; Kang, Won Jun; Lee, Jae Sung; Kang, Eun Joo; Lee, Kang Uk; Woo, Jong In; Lee, Myung Chul; Cho, Sang Soo

    2003-01-01

    Determining an appropriate thresholding is crucial for PDG PET analysis since strong control of Type I error could fail to find pathological differences between early Alzheimer' disease (AD) patients and healthy normal controls. We compared the SPM results on FDG PET imaging of early AD using uncorrected p-value, random-field based corrected p-value and false discovery rate (FDR) control. Twenty-eight patients (66±7 years old) with early AD and 18 age-matched normal controls (68±6 years old) underwent FDG brain PET. To identify brain regions with hypo-metabolism in group or individual patient compared to normal controls, group images or each patient's image was compared with normal controls using the same fixed p-value of 0.001 on uncorrected thresholding, random-field based corrected thresholding and FDR control. The number of hypo-metabolic voxels was smallest in corrected p-value method, largest in uncorrected p-value method and intermediate in FDG thresholding in group analysis. Three types of result pattern were found. The first was that corrected p-value did yield any voxel positive but FDR gave a few significantly hypometabolic voxels (8/28, 29%). The second was that both corrected p-value and FDR did not yield any positive region but numerous positive voxels were found with the threshold of uncorrected p-values (6/28, 21%). The last was that FDR was detected as many positive voxels as uncorrected p-value method (14/28, 50%). Conclusions FDR control could identify hypo-metabolic areas in group or individual patients with early AD. We recommend FDR control instead of uncorrected or random-field corrected thresholding method to find the areas showing hypometabolism especially in small group or individual analysis of FDG PET

  9. False negative rate and other performance measures of a sponge-wipe surface sampling method for low contaminant concentrations.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Einfeld, Wayne; Krauter, Paula A.; Boucher, Raymond M.; Tezak, Mathew; Amidan, Brett G. (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA); Piepel, Greg F. (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA)

    2011-05-01

    Recovery of spores from environmental surfaces is known to vary due to sampling methodology, techniques, spore size and characteristics, surface materials, and environmental conditions. A series of tests were performed to evaluate a new, validated sponge-wipe method. Specific factors evaluated were the effects of contaminant concentrations and surface materials on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), limit of detection (LOD) - and the uncertainties of these quantities. Ceramic tile and stainless steel had the highest mean RE values (48.9 and 48.1%, respectively). Faux leather, vinyl tile, and painted wood had mean RE values of 30.3, 25.6, and 25.5, respectively, while plastic had the lowest mean RE (9.8%). Results show a roughly linear dependence of surface roughness on RE, where the smoothest surfaces have the highest mean RE values. REs were not influenced by the low spore concentrations tested (3 x 10{sup -3} to 1.86 CFU/cm{sup 2}). The FNR data were consistent with RE data, showing a trend of smoother surfaces resulting in higher REs and lower FNRs. Stainless steel generally had the lowest mean FNR (0.123) and plastic had the highest mean FNR (0.479). The LOD{sub 90} varied with surface material, from 0.015 CFU/cm{sup 2} on stainless steel up to 0.039 on plastic. Selecting sampling locations on the basis of surface roughness and using roughness to interpret spore recovery data can improve sampling. Further, FNR values, calculated as a function of concentration and surface material, can be used pre-sampling to calculate the numbers of samples for statistical sampling plans with desired performance, and post-sampling to calculate the confidence in characterization and clearance decisions.

  10. Virtual Reality: Real Promises and False Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homan, Willem J.

    1994-01-01

    Examines virtual reality (VR), and discusses the dilemma of defining VR, the limitations of the current technology, and the implications of VR for education. Highlights include a VR experience; human factors and the interface; and altered reality versus VR. (Author/AEF)

  11. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  12. Expectancies, socioeconomic status, and self-rated health: use of the simplified TOMCATS Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odéen, Magnus; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres; Leineweber, Constanze; Eriksen, Hege R; Ursin, Holger

    2013-06-01

    Coping has traditionally been measured with inventories containing many items meant to identify specific coping strategies. An alternative is to develop a shorter inventory that focusses on coping expectancies which may determine the extent to which an individual attempts to cope actively. This paper explores the usefulness and validity of a simplified seven-item questionnaire (Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, TOMCATS) for response outcome expectancies defined either as positive ("coping"), negative ("hopelessness"), or none ("helplessness"). The definitions are based on the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS; Ursin and Eriksen, Psychoneuroendocrinology, 29(5):567–92, 2004). The questionnaire was tested in two different samples. First, the questionnaire was compared with a traditional test of coping and then tested for validity in relation to socioeconomic differences in self-reported health. The first study was a comparison of the brief TOMCATS with a short version of the Utrecht Coping List (UCL; Eriksen et al., Scand J Psychol, 38(3):175–82, 1997). Both questionnaires were tested in a population of 1,704 Norwegian municipality workers. The second study was a cross-sectional analysis of TOMCATS, subjective and objective socioeconomic status, and health in a representative sample of the Swedish working population in 2003–2005 (N = 11,441). In the first study, the coping item in the TOMCATS questionnaire showed an expected significant positive correlation with the UCL factors of instrumental mastery-oriented coping and negative correlations with passive and depressive scores. There were also the expected correlations for the helplessness and hopelessness scores, but there was no clear distinction between helplessness and hopelessness in the way they correlated with the UCL. In the second study, the coping item in TOMCATS and the three-item helplessness scores showed clear and monotonous gradients over

  13. Interval Breast Cancer Rates and Histopathologic Tumor Characteristics after False-Positive Findings at Mammography in a Population-based Screening Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hofvind, Solveig; Sagstad, Silje; Sebuødegård, Sofie; Chen, Ying; Roman, Marta; Lee, Christoph I

    2018-04-01

    Purpose To compare rates and tumor characteristics of interval breast cancers (IBCs) detected after a negative versus false-positive screening among women participating in the Norwegian Breast Cancer Screening Program. Materials and Methods The Cancer Registry Regulation approved this retrospective study. Information about 423 445 women aged 49-71 years who underwent 789 481 full-field digital mammographic screening examinations during 2004-2012 was extracted from the Cancer Registry of Norway. Rates and odds ratios of IBC among women with a negative (the reference group) versus a false-positive screening were estimated by using logistic regression models adjusted for age at diagnosis and county of residence. Results A total of 1302 IBCs were diagnosed after 789 481 screening examinations, of which 7.0% (91 of 1302) were detected among women with a false-positive screening as the most recent breast imaging examination before detection. By using negative screening as the reference, adjusted odds ratios of IBCs were 3.3 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.6, 4.2) and 2.8 (95% CI: 1.8, 4.4) for women with a false-positive screening without and with needle biopsy, respectively. Women with a previous negative screening had a significantly lower proportion of tumors that were 10 mm or less (14.3% [150 of 1049] vs 50.0% [seven of 14], respectively; P false-positive screening with benign biopsy. A retrospective review of the screening mammographic examinations identified 42.9% (39 of 91) of the false-positive cases to be the same lesion as the IBC. Conclusion By using a negative screening as the reference, a false-positive screening examination increased the risk of an IBC three-fold. The tumor characteristics of IBC after a negative screening were less favorable compared with those detected after a previous false-positive screening. © RSNA, 2017 Online supplemental material is available for this article.

  14. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  15. False assumptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, M

    1997-01-01

    Indian women do not have to be told the benefits of breast feeding or "rescued from the clutches of wicked multinational companies" by international agencies. There is no proof that breast feeding has declined in India; in fact, a 1987 survey revealed that 98% of Indian women breast feed. Efforts to promote breast feeding among the middle classes rely on such initiatives as the "baby friendly" hospital where breast feeding is promoted immediately after birth. This ignores the 76% of Indian women who give birth at home. Blaming this unproved decline in breast feeding on multinational companies distracts attention from more far-reaching and intractable effects of social change. While the Infant Milk Substitutes Act is helpful, it also deflects attention from more pressing issues. Another false assumption is that Indian women are abandoning breast feeding to comply with the demands of employment, but research indicates that most women give up employment for breast feeding, despite the economic cost to their families. Women also seek work in the informal sector to secure the flexibility to meet their child care responsibilities. Instead of being concerned about "teaching" women what they already know about the benefits of breast feeding, efforts should be made to remove the constraints women face as a result of their multiple roles and to empower them with the support of families, governmental policies and legislation, employers, health professionals, and the media.

  16. Drilling rates and expected oil prices: The own price elasticity of US oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Gruen, W.; Montesi, R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper evaluates the feasibility of policies to increase exploration and development by the oil industry. To do so, the authors estimate a new model for well completions in the United States that includes the effect of price expectations from survey data, that separates exploratory from development wells, and that uses a deflator based on the cost of drilling a well. The regression results indicate that the price elasticity of drilling is considerably smaller than previous estimates. When combined with recent analyses of drilling success, the results indicate that the own price elasticity of US oil supply is relatively small. The low price elasticity of supply indicates that efforts to increase domestic oil supplies by increasing well completions may be more expensive than believed previously

  17. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2016-05-25

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  18. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Zafar, Ammar; Alnuweiri, Hussein; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  19. Experimental Design for a Macrofoam-Swab Study Relating the Recovery Efficiency and False Negative Rate to Low Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates on Four Surface Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-12-05

    This report describes the experimental design for a laboratory study to quantify the recovery efficiencies and false negative rates of a validated, macrofoam-swab sampling method for low concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus (BG) spores on four surface materials (stainless steel, glass, vinyl tile, plastic light cover panel). Two analytical methods (culture and polymerase chain reaction) will be used. Only one previous study has investigated how the false negative rate depends on test factors. The surrogates BAS and BG have not been tested together in the same study previously. Hence, this study will provide for completing gaps in the available information on the performance of macrofoam-swab sampling at low concentrations.

  20. Impact of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombolotutu, A. D.; Djirimu, M. A.; Lutfi, M.; Anggadini, F.

    2018-05-01

    Research was conducted in several districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province in order to determine the effect of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate, and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty at the districts/city in the province. The analysis used is Panel Data Regression. The results show that first, life expectancy and gross domestic regional income have a negative and significant impact on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province. Second, the opened unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the province. Third, literacy rates show a positive effect and insignificant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province of Central Sulawesi. Fourth, these four variables simultaneously affect the poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi

  1. Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2014-06-01

    The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

  2. Expected indoor 222Rn levels in counties with very high and very low lung cancer rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1989-01-01

    Counties in the US with high lung cancer rates should have higher average 222 Rn levels than counties with low lung cancer rates, assuming the average 222 Rn level in a county is not correlated with other factors that cause lung cancer. The magnitude of this effect was calculated, using the absolute risk model, the relative risk model, and an intermediate model, for females who died in 1950-1969. The results were similar for all three models. We concluded that, ignoring migration, the average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties should be about three times higher than in the lowest lung cancer counties according to the theory. Preliminary data are presented indicating that the situation is quite the opposite: The average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties was only about one-half that in the lowest lung cancer counties

  3. Expected count rate for the Self- Interrogation Neutron Resonance Densitometry measurements of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossa, Riccardo [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang, 200 - B2400 Mol (Belgium); Universite libre de Bruxelles, Ecole polytechnique de Bruxelles - Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, CP 165/84, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 50 - B1050 Brussels (Belgium); Borella, Alessandro; Van der Meer, Klaas [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang, 200 - B2400 Mol (Belgium); Labeau, Pierre-Etienne; Pauly, Nicolas [Universite libre de Bruxelles, Ecole polytechnique de Bruxelles - Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, CP 165/84, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 50 - B1050 Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-07-01

    The Self-Interrogation Neutron Resonance Densitometry (SINRD) is a passive neutron technique that aims at a direct quantification of {sup 239}Pu in the fuel assemblies by measuring the attenuation of the neutron flux in the energy region close to the 0.3 eV resonance of {sup 239}Pu. The {sup 239}Pu mass is estimated by calculating the SINRD signature, that is the ratio between the neutron flux integrated over the fast energy region and around the 0.3 eV resonance region. The SINRD measurement approach considered in this study consists in introducing a small neutron detector in the central guide tube of a PWR 17x17 fuel assembly. In order to measure the neutron flux in the energy regions defined in the SINRD signature, different detector types are used. The response of a bare {sup 238}U fission chamber is considered for the determination of the fast neutron flux, while other thermal-epithermal detectors wrapped in neutron absorbers are envisaged to measure the neutron flux around the resonance region. This paper provides an estimation of the count rate that can be achieved with the detector types proposed for the SINRD measurement. In the first section a set of detectors are evaluated in terms of count rate and sensitivity to the {sup 239}Pu content, in order to identify the optimal measurement configuration for each detector type. Then a study is performed to increase the count rate by increasing the detector size. The study shows that the highest count rate is achieved by using either {sup 3}He or {sup 10}B proportional counters because of the high neutron efficiency of these detectors. However, the calculations indicate that the biggest contribution to the measurement uncertainty is due to the measurement of the fast neutron flux. Finally, similar sensitivity to the {sup 239}Pu content is obtained by using the different detector types for the measurement of the neutron flux close to the resonance region. Therefore, the count rate associated to each detector type

  4. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  5. Healthy life expectancy and the correlates of self-rated health in Bangladesh in 1996 and 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareque, Md Ismail; Saito, Yasuhiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

    2015-03-31

    Life expectancy (LE) at birth has increased steadily in Bangladesh since its independence. When people live longer, quality of life becomes a central issue. This study examines whether healthy life expectancy (HLE) at ages 15, 25, 35, and 45 is keeping pace with LE at those ages between 1996 and 2002. It also seeks to investigate the correlates of self-rated health (SRH) in 1996 and 2002. We used data from the World Values Survey conducted in 1996 and 2002 among individuals 15 years and older. The Sullivan method was used to compute HLE. Socio-demographic differences and their association with different states of health were examined by chi-square and Pearson's correlation tests. Multiple linear regression models were fitted to examine the correlates of SRH. The results show that perceived health improved between 1996 and 2002. For males, statistically significant increases in the expected number of years lived in good SRH were found. Proportionally, in 2002, both males and females at ages 15, 25, 35 and 45 expected more life years in good health and fewer life years in fair and poor health than did their counterparts in 1996. Comparatively, males expected fewer life years spent in good health but a much larger proportion of expected life in good health than did females. Finally, in multivariate analyses, life satisfaction was the only factor found to be significantly and positively associated with SRH for males and females in both years, although in both years the association was much more pronounced for females than for males. This study documented changes in HLE during 1996-2002. Women outlive men, but they have a lower quality of life and are more likely to live a greater part of their remaining life in poor SRH. Life satisfaction as well as other significant factors associated with SRH should be promoted, with special attention given to women, to improve healthy life expectancy and the quality of life of the Bangladeshi people.

  6. Specificity and false positive rates of the Test of Memory Malingering, Rey 15-item Test, and Rey Word Recognition Test among forensic inpatients with intellectual disabilities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Christopher M; Glassmire, David M; Zanolini, Shanna Jordan; Wolf, Amanda

    2014-10-01

    This study evaluated the specificity and false positive (FP) rates of the Rey 15-Item Test (FIT), Word Recognition Test (WRT), and Test of Memory Malingering (TOMM) in a sample of 21 forensic inpatients with mild intellectual disability (ID). The FIT demonstrated an FP rate of 23.8% with the standard quantitative cutoff score. Certain qualitative error types on the FIT showed promise and had low FP rates. The WRT obtained an FP rate of 0.0% with previously reported cutoff scores. Finally, the TOMM demonstrated low FP rates of 4.8% and 0.0% on Trial 2 and the Retention Trial, respectively, when applying the standard cutoff score. FP rates are reported for a range of cutoff scores and compared with published research on individuals diagnosed with ID. Results indicated that although the quantitative variables on the FIT had unacceptably high FP rates, the TOMM and WRT had low FP rates, increasing the confidence clinicians can place in scores reflecting poor effort on these measures during ID evaluations. © The Author(s) 2014.

  7. Impact of age on the false negative rate of human papillomavirus DNA test in patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Kyu-Hee; Lee, Jae Yeon; Cho, Hye-Yon; Suh, Dong Hoon; No, Jae Hong; Kim, Yong-Beom

    2015-03-01

    Human papillomavirus (HPV) test was incorporated into the triage of lesser abnormal cervical cytologies: atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) or low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (LSIL). This study aimed to evaluate the impact of age on the efficacy of HPV testing in patients with lesser abnormal cervical cytologies. A total of 439 patients with ASCUS or LSIL were included. The association between age groups and the diagnostic performances of HPV test for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2+) was evaluated. Median age was 44 years (range, 17 to 75 years). ASCUS was more frequently observed in older patients while LSIL was more common in younger patients (P=0.002). CIN2+ was found in 11.3% (32/284) of the ASCUS patients and 12.9% (20/155) of patients with LSIL. Older patients with ASCUS showed lower HPV infection rates (P=0.025), but not LSIL (P=0.114). However, the prevalence of CIN2+ was similar between the age groups with ASCUS or LSIL. In patients with ASCUS, the false negative rate of HPV test for CIN2+ was 6.2%. The false negative rate of the HPV test became higher with increasing of the age after the age of 50 (P=0.034). Our findings suggest that false negative rate of the HPV test for CIN2+ in ASCUS patients older than 50 years might become higher with increasing of the age. Negative HPV results in patients of the age >50 years with ASCUS should be carefully interpreted.

  8. Experimental Design for a Macrofoam Swab Study Relating the Recovery Efficiency and False Negative Rate to Low Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates on Four Surface Materials

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F.; Hutchison, Janine R.

    2014-04-16

    This report describes the experimental design for a laboratory study to quantify the recovery efficiencies and false negative rates of a validated, macrofoam swab sampling method for low concentrations of Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus (BG) spores on four surface materials (stainless steel, glass, vinyl tile, plastic light cover panel). Two analytical methods (plating/counting and polymerase chain reaction) will be used. Only one previous study has investigated false negative as a function of affecting test factors. The surrogates BAS and BG have not been tested together in the same study previously. Hence, this study will provide for completing gaps in the available information on the performance of macrofoam swab sampling at low concentrations.

  9. Pupil responses and pain ratings to heat stimuli: Reliability and effects of expectations and a conditioning pain stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenach, James C; Curry, Regina; Aschenbrenner, Carol A; Coghill, Robert C; Houle, Timothy T

    2017-03-01

    The locus coeruleus (LC) signals salience to sensory stimuli and these responses can modulate the experience of pain stimuli. The pupil dilation response (PDR) to noxious stimuli is thought to be a surrogate for LC responses, but PDR response to Peltier-controlled noxious heat stimuli, the most commonly used method in experimental pain research, has not been described. Healthy volunteers were presented with randomly presented heat stimuli of 5 sec duration and provided pain intensity ratings to each stimulus. Pupillometry was performed and a method developed to quantify the PDR relevant to these stimuli. The stimulus response, reliability, and effect of commonly used manipulations on pain experience were explored. A method of artifact removal and adjusting for lag from stimulus initiation to PDR response was developed, resulting in a close correlation between pain intensity rating and PDR across a large range of heat stimuli. A reliable assessment of PDR within an individual was achieved with fewer presentations as heat stimulus intensity increased. The correlation between pain rating and PDR was disrupted when cognitive load is increased by manipulating expectations or presenting a second pain stimulus. The PDR began later after skin heating than electrical stimuli and this is the first examination of the PDR using standard nociceptive testing and manipulations of expectations and competing noxious stimulation. A method is described applying PDR to standard heat nociceptive testing, demonstrating stimulus response, reliability, and disruption by cognitive manipulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  11. cn.MOPS: mixture of Poissons for discovering copy number variations in next-generation sequencing data with a low false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klambauer, Günter; Schwarzbauer, Karin; Mayr, Andreas; Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Bodenhofer, Ulrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

    2012-05-01

    Quantitative analyses of next-generation sequencing (NGS) data, such as the detection of copy number variations (CNVs), remain challenging. Current methods detect CNVs as changes in the depth of coverage along chromosomes. Technological or genomic variations in the depth of coverage thus lead to a high false discovery rate (FDR), even upon correction for GC content. In the context of association studies between CNVs and disease, a high FDR means many false CNVs, thereby decreasing the discovery power of the study after correction for multiple testing. We propose 'Copy Number estimation by a Mixture Of PoissonS' (cn.MOPS), a data processing pipeline for CNV detection in NGS data. In contrast to previous approaches, cn.MOPS incorporates modeling of depths of coverage across samples at each genomic position. Therefore, cn.MOPS is not affected by read count variations along chromosomes. Using a Bayesian approach, cn.MOPS decomposes variations in the depth of coverage across samples into integer copy numbers and noise by means of its mixture components and Poisson distributions, respectively. The noise estimate allows for reducing the FDR by filtering out detections having high noise that are likely to be false detections. We compared cn.MOPS with the five most popular methods for CNV detection in NGS data using four benchmark datasets: (i) simulated data, (ii) NGS data from a male HapMap individual with implanted CNVs from the X chromosome, (iii) data from HapMap individuals with known CNVs, (iv) high coverage data from the 1000 Genomes Project. cn.MOPS outperformed its five competitors in terms of precision (1-FDR) and recall for both gains and losses in all benchmark data sets. The software cn.MOPS is publicly available as an R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnmops/ and at Bioconductor.

  12. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  13. Baryogenesis in false vacuum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hamada, Yuta [KEK Theory Center, IPNS, KEK, Tsukuba, Ibaraki (Japan); Yamada, Masatoshi [Kanazawa University, Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kanazawa (Japan)

    2017-09-15

    The null result in the LHC may indicate that the standard model is not drastically modified up to very high scales, such as the GUT/string scale. Having this in the mind, we suggest a novel leptogenesis scenario realized in the false vacuum of the Higgs field. If the Higgs field develops a large vacuum expectation value in the early universe, a lepton number violating process is enhanced, which we use for baryogenesis. To demonstrate the scenario, several models are discussed. For example, we show that the observed baryon asymmetry is successfully generated in the standard model with higher-dimensional operators. (orig.)

  14. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  15. Comparison of false-negative rates and limits of detection following macrofoam-swab sampling of Bacillus anthracis surrogates via Rapid Viability PCR and plate culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchison, J R; Piepel, G F; Amidan, B G; Hess, B M; Sydor, M A; Deatherage Kaiser, B L

    2018-05-01

    We evaluated the effects of Bacillus anthracis surrogates, low surface concentrations, surface materials and assay methods on false-negative rate (FNR) and limit of detection (LOD 95 ) for recovering Bacillus spores using a macrofoam-swab sampling procedure. Bacillus anthracis Sterne or Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura spores were deposited over a range of low target concentrations (2-500 per coupon) onto glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile and plastic. Samples were assayed using a modified Rapid Viability-PCR (mRV-PCR) method and the traditional plate culture method to obtain FNR and LOD 95 results. Mean FNRs tended to be lower for mRV-PCR compared to culturing, and increased as spore concentration decreased for all surface materials. Surface material, but not B. anthracis surrogate, influenced FNRs with the mRV-PCR method. The mRV-PCR LOD 95 was lowest for glass and highest for vinyl tile. LOD 95 values overall were lower for mRV-PCR than for the culture method. This study adds to the limited data on FNR and LOD 95 for mRV-PCR and culturing methods with low concentrations of B. anthracis sampled from various surface materials by the CDC macrofoam-swab method. These are key inputs for planning characterization and clearance studies for low contamination levels of B. anthracis. © 2018 The Society for Applied Microbiology.

  16. Use of the local false discovery rate for identification of metabolic biomarkers in rat urine following Genkwa Flos-induced hepatotoxicity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuojing Li

    Full Text Available Metabolomics is concerned with characterizing the large number of metabolites present in a biological system using nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR and HPLC/MS (high-performance liquid chromatography with mass spectrometry. Multivariate analysis is one of the most important tools for metabolic biomarker identification in metabolomic studies. However, analyzing the large-scale data sets acquired during metabolic fingerprinting is a major challenge. As a posterior probability that the features of interest are not affected, the local false discovery rate (LFDR is a good interpretable measure. However, it is rarely used to when interrogating metabolic data to identify biomarkers. In this study, we employed the LFDR method to analyze HPLC/MS data acquired from a metabolomic study of metabolic changes in rat urine during hepatotoxicity induced by Genkwa flos (GF treatment. The LFDR approach was successfully used to identify important rat urine metabolites altered by GF-stimulated hepatotoxicity. Compared with principle component analysis (PCA, LFDR is an interpretable measure and discovers more important metabolites in an HPLC/MS-based metabolomic study.

  17. cn.FARMS: a latent variable model to detect copy number variations in microarray data with a low false discovery rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clevert, Djork-Arné; Mitterecker, Andreas; Mayr, Andreas; Klambauer, Günter; Tuefferd, Marianne; De Bondt, An; Talloen, Willem; Göhlmann, Hinrich; Hochreiter, Sepp

    2011-07-01

    Cost-effective oligonucleotide genotyping arrays like the Affymetrix SNP 6.0 are still the predominant technique to measure DNA copy number variations (CNVs). However, CNV detection methods for microarrays overestimate both the number and the size of CNV regions and, consequently, suffer from a high false discovery rate (FDR). A high FDR means that many CNVs are wrongly detected and therefore not associated with a disease in a clinical study, though correction for multiple testing takes them into account and thereby decreases the study's discovery power. For controlling the FDR, we propose a probabilistic latent variable model, 'cn.FARMS', which is optimized by a Bayesian maximum a posteriori approach. cn.FARMS controls the FDR through the information gain of the posterior over the prior. The prior represents the null hypothesis of copy number 2 for all samples from which the posterior can only deviate by strong and consistent signals in the data. On HapMap data, cn.FARMS clearly outperformed the two most prevalent methods with respect to sensitivity and FDR. The software cn.FARMS is publicly available as a R package at http://www.bioinf.jku.at/software/cnfarms/cnfarms.html.

  18. Improved estimation of the noncentrality parameter distribution from a large number of t-statistics, with applications to false discovery rate estimation in microarray data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Long; Nettleton, Dan; Dekkers, Jack C M

    2012-12-01

    Given a large number of t-statistics, we consider the problem of approximating the distribution of noncentrality parameters (NCPs) by a continuous density. This problem is closely related to the control of false discovery rates (FDR) in massive hypothesis testing applications, e.g., microarray gene expression analysis. Our methodology is similar to, but improves upon, the existing approach by Ruppert, Nettleton, and Hwang (2007, Biometrics, 63, 483-495). We provide parametric, nonparametric, and semiparametric estimators for the distribution of NCPs, as well as estimates of the FDR and local FDR. In the parametric situation, we assume that the NCPs follow a distribution that leads to an analytically available marginal distribution for the test statistics. In the nonparametric situation, we use convex combinations of basis density functions to estimate the density of the NCPs. A sequential quadratic programming procedure is developed to maximize the penalized likelihood. The smoothing parameter is selected with the approximate network information criterion. A semiparametric estimator is also developed to combine both parametric and nonparametric fits. Simulations show that, under a variety of situations, our density estimates are closer to the underlying truth and our FDR estimates are improved compared with alternative methods. Data-based simulations and the analyses of two microarray datasets are used to evaluate the performance in realistic situations. © 2012, The International Biometric Society.

  19. Characterizing the Joint Effect of Diverse Test-Statistic Correlation Structures and Effect Size on False Discovery Rates in a Multiple-Comparison Study of Many Outcome Measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Ploutz-Snyder, Robert; Fiedler, James

    2011-01-01

    In their 2009 Annals of Statistics paper, Gavrilov, Benjamini, and Sarkar report the results of a simulation assessing the robustness of their adaptive step-down procedure (GBS) for controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) when normally distributed test statistics are serially correlated. In this study we extend the investigation to the case of multiple comparisons involving correlated non-central t-statistics, in particular when several treatments or time periods are being compared to a control in a repeated-measures design with many dependent outcome measures. In addition, we consider several dependence structures other than serial correlation and illustrate how the FDR depends on the interaction between effect size and the type of correlation structure as indexed by Foerstner s distance metric from an identity. The relationship between the correlation matrix R of the original dependent variables and R, the correlation matrix of associated t-statistics is also studied. In general R depends not only on R, but also on sample size and the signed effect sizes for the multiple comparisons.

  20. Using data to help increase STEM retention rates for at-risk students; Student expectations and skill building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Jones, G.; Heaney, A.

    2013-12-01

    Retention in the STEM fields is often a focus for higher education due to a shortage of trained workforce members. In particular, much effort has been spent on first year retention rates and introductory level courses under the assumption that students are more likely to drop out of STEM majors early in their higher education degree progress. While the retention rates of women, minorities, and low income students have been a priority by both the National Science Foundation and the private sector, we are interested in at-risk first year students for this study. The University of Wyoming Synergy Program's goal is to promote academic success and retention for underprepared and at-risk students by creating a series of first semester curricula as theme-based college transition skills courses that are paired with English courses. This creates a cohort group of courses for the students with increased communication between instructors at the same time allowing greater development of student social networks. In this study we are highlighting the results of the STEM students as compared with other at-risk participants in the program. The Synergy Program enrolls approximately 144 students each year with pre- and post-course surveys that directly measure which college skills students select as important as well as student expectations of the amount of time required for STEM courses. Follow-up surveys track the same queries for students who persist to their junior and senior year. In addition, instructors complete a summative survey about skills they find important to student success and individual student's challenges and successes with a variety of skills. Our results show a large gap in skills between those identified as important by students and those identified by their instructors. Expectations for the amount of time required to complete work for STEM courses and the reported time spent on course work are not constant when progressing throughout college. This analysis

  1. Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Deatherage Kaiser, Brooke L [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Amidan, Brett G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sydor, Michael A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Barrett, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-03-31

    The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in. × 2 in.) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest for vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm2, where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results will be discussed in a subsequent report.

  2. Recovery Efficiency, False Negative Rate, and Limit of Detection Performance of a Validated Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kaiser, Brooke L. D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Amidan, Brett G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sydor, Michael A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Barrett, Christopher A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-16

    The performance of a macrofoam-swab sampling method was evaluated using Bacillus anthracis Sterne (BAS) and Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores applied at nine low target amounts (2-500 spores) to positive-control plates and test coupons (2 in × 2 in) of four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic). Test results from cultured samples were used to evaluate the effects of surrogate, surface concentration, and surface material on recovery efficiency (RE), false negative rate (FNR), and limit of detection. For RE, surrogate and surface material had statistically significant effects, but concentration did not. Mean REs were the lowest for vinyl tile (50.8% with BAS, 40.2% with BG) and the highest for glass (92.8% with BAS, 71.4% with BG). FNR values ranged from 0 to 0.833 for BAS and 0 to 0.806 for BG, with values increasing as concentration decreased in the range tested (0.078 to 19.375 CFU/cm2, where CFU denotes ‘colony forming units’). Surface material also had a statistically significant effect. A FNR-concentration curve was fit for each combination of surrogate and surface material. For both surrogates, the FNR curves tended to be the lowest for glass and highest for vinyl title. The FNR curves for BG tended to be higher than for BAS at lower concentrations, especially for glass. Results using a modified Rapid Viability-Polymerase Chain Reaction (mRV-PCR) analysis method were also obtained. The mRV-PCR results and comparisons to the culture results are discussed in a separate report.

  3. False Negative Rates of a Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates via Real-Time PCR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Amidan, Brett G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sydor, Michael A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Kaiser, Brooke L.D. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-06-01

    Surface sampling for Bacillus anthracis spores has traditionally relied on detection via bacterial cultivation methods. Although effective, this approach does not provide the level of organism specificity that can be gained through molecular techniques. False negative rates (FNR) and limits of detection (LOD) were determined for two B. anthracis surrogates with modified rapid viability-polymerase chain reaction (mRV-PCR) following macrofoam-swab sampling. This study was conducted in parallel with a previously reported study that analyzed spores using a plate-culture method. B. anthracis Sterne (BAS) or B. atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores were deposited onto four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic) at nine target concentrations (2 to 500 spores/coupon; 0.078 to 19.375 colony-forming units [CFU] per cm2). Mean FNR values for mRV-PCR analysis ranged from 0 to 0.917 for BAS and 0 to 0.875 for BG and increased as spore concentration decreased (over the concentrations investigated) for each surface material. FNRs based on mRV-PCR data were not statistically different for BAS and BG, but were significantly lower for glass than for vinyl tile. FNRs also tended to be lower for the mRV-PCR method compared to the culture method. The mRV-PCR LOD95 was lowest for glass (0.429 CFU/cm2 with BAS and 0.341 CFU/cm2 with BG) and highest for vinyl tile (0.919 CFU/cm2 with BAS and 0.917 CFU/cm2 with BG). These mRV-PCR LOD95 values were lower than the culture values (BAS: 0.678 to 1.023 CFU/cm2 and BG: 0.820 to 1.489 CFU/cm2). The FNR and LOD95 values reported in this work provide guidance for environmental sampling of Bacillus spores at low concentrations.

  4. False Negative Rates of a Macrofoam-Swab Sampling Method with Low Surface Concentrations of Two Bacillus anthracis Surrogates via Real-Time PCR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchison, Janine R. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Piepel, Gregory F. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Amidan, Brett G. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Sydor, Michael A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Deatherage Kaiser, Brooke L [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2015-05-01

    Surface sampling for Bacillus anthracis spores has traditionally relied on detection via bacterial cultivation methods. Although effective, this approach does not provide the level of organism specificity that can be gained through molecular techniques. False negative rates (FNR) and limits of detection (LOD) were determined for two B. anthracis surrogates with modified rapid viability-polymerase chain reaction (mRV-PCR) following macrofoam-swab sampling. This study was conducted in parallel with a previously reported study that analyzed spores using a plate-culture method. B. anthracis Sterne (BAS) or B. atrophaeus Nakamura (BG) spores were deposited onto four surface materials (glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic) at nine target concentrations (2 to 500 spores/coupon; 0.078 to 19.375 colony-forming units [CFU] per cm²). Mean FNR values for mRV-PCR analysis ranged from 0 to 0.917 for BAS and 0 to 0.875 for BG and increased as spore concentration decreased (over the concentrations investigated) for each surface material. FNRs based on mRV-PCR data were not statistically different for BAS and BG, but were significantly lower for glass than for vinyl tile. FNRs also tended to be lower for the mRV-PCR method compared to the culture method. The mRV-PCR LOD₉₅ was lowest for glass (0.429 CFU/cm² with BAS and 0.341 CFU/cm² with BG) and highest for vinyl tile (0.919 CFU/cm² with BAS and 0.917 CFU/cm² with BG). These mRV-PCR LOD₉₅ values were lower than the culture values (BAS: 0.678 to 1.023 CFU/cm² and BG: 0.820 to 1.489 CFU/cm²). The FNR and LOD₉₅ values reported in this work provide guidance for environmental sampling of Bacillus spores at low concentrations.

  5. SU-G-BRB-03: Assessing the Sensitivity and False Positive Rate of the Integrated Quality Monitor (IQM) Large Area Ion Chamber to MLC Positioning Errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boehnke, E McKenzie; DeMarco, J; Steers, J; Fraass, B [Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine both the IQM’s sensitivity and false positive rate to varying MLC errors. By balancing these two characteristics, an optimal tolerance value can be derived. Methods: An un-modified SBRT Liver IMRT plan containing 7 fields was randomly selected as a representative clinical case. The active MLC positions for all fields were perturbed randomly from a square distribution of varying width (±1mm to ±5mm). These unmodified and modified plans were measured multiple times each by the IQM (a large area ion chamber mounted to a TrueBeam linac head). Measurements were analyzed relative to the initial, unmodified measurement. IQM readings are analyzed as a function of control points. In order to examine sensitivity to errors along a field’s delivery, each measured field was divided into 5 groups of control points, and the maximum error in each group was recorded. Since the plans have known errors, we compared how well the IQM is able to differentiate between unmodified and error plans. ROC curves and logistic regression were used to analyze this, independent of thresholds. Results: A likelihood-ratio Chi-square test showed that the IQM could significantly predict whether a plan had MLC errors, with the exception of the beginning and ending control points. Upon further examination, we determined there was ramp-up occurring at the beginning of delivery. Once the linac AFC was tuned, the subsequent measurements (relative to a new baseline) showed significant (p <0.005) abilities to predict MLC errors. Using the area under the curve, we show the IQM’s ability to detect errors increases with increasing MLC error (Spearman’s Rho=0.8056, p<0.0001). The optimal IQM count thresholds from the ROC curves are ±3%, ±2%, and ±7% for the beginning, middle 3, and end segments, respectively. Conclusion: The IQM has proven to be able to detect not only MLC errors, but also differences in beam tuning (ramp-up). Partially supported by the Susan Scott Foundation.

  6. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  7. Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

    2016-10-01

    This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

  8. Differences in rates of radiation-induced true and false rib fractures after stereotactic body radiation therapy for Stage I primary lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miura, Hideharu; Inoue, Toshihiko; Shiomi, Hiroya; Oh, Ryoong-Jin

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the dosimetry and investigate the clinical outcomes of radiation-induced rib fractures (RIRFs) after stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT). A total of 126 patients with Stage I primary lung cancer treated with SBRT, who had undergone follow-up computed tomography (CT) at least 12 months after SBRT and who had no previous overlapping radiation exposure were included in the study. We used the Mantel-Haenszel method and multiple logistic regression analysis to compare risk factors. We analyzed D(0.5 cm 3 ) (minimum absolute dose received by a 0.5-cm 3 volume) and identified each rib that received a biologically effective dose (BED) (BED3, using the linear-quadratic (LQ) formulation assuming an α/β = 3) of at least 50 Gy. Of the 126 patients, 46 (37%) suffered a total of 77 RIRFs. The median interval from SBRT to RIRF detection was 15 months (range, 3-56 months). The 3-year cumulative probabilities were 45% (95% CI, 34-56%) and 3% (95% CI, 0-6%), for Grades 1 and 2 RIRFs, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor location was a statistically significant risk factor for the development of Grade 1 RIRFs. Of the 77 RIRFs, 71 (92%) developed in the true ribs (ribs 1-7), and the remaining six developed in the false ribs (ribs 8-12). The BED3 associated with 10% and 50% probabilities of RIRF were 55 and 210 Gy to the true ribs and 240 and 260 Gy to the false ribs. We conclude that RIRFs develop more frequently in true ribs than in false ribs. (author)

  9. Subjective Health Complaints and Self-Rated Health: Are Expectancies More Important Than Socioeconomic Status and Workload?

    OpenAIRE

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R.; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2013-01-01

    Background The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. Purpose The purpose of this study...

  10. Voting experiments: Bandwagon voting or false-consensus effect?

    OpenAIRE

    Ivo Bischoff; Henrik Egbert

    2008-01-01

    In an experiment designed to test for expressive voting, Tyran (JPubEc 2004) found a strong positive correlation between the participants' approval for a proposal to donate money for charity and their expected approval rate for fellow voters. This phenomenon can be due to bandwagon voting or a false consensus effect. The social science literature reports both effects for voting decisions. Replicating Tyran's experiment and adding new treatments, we provide evidence for a false consensus effec...

  11. Improving the false-negative rate of CT in acute appendicitis-Reassessment of CT images by body imaging radiologists: A blinded prospective study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poortman, Pieter; Lohle, Paul N.M.; Schoemaker, Cees M.; Cuesta, Miguel A.; Oostvogel, Henk J.M.; Lange-de Klerk, Elly S.M. de; Hamming, Jaap F.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To compare the accuracy of computed tomography (CT) analyzed by individual radiology staff members and body imaging radiologists in a non-academic teaching hospital for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis. Patients and methods: In a prospective study 199 patients with suspected acute appendicitis were examined with unenhanced CT. CT images were pre-operatively analyzed by one of the 12 members of the radiology staff. In a later stage two body imaging radiologist reassessed all CT images without knowledge of the surgical findings and without knowledge of the primary CT diagnosis. The results, independently reported, were correlated with surgical and histopathologic findings. Results: In 132 patients (66%) acute appendicitis was found at surgery, in 67 patients (34%) a normal appendix was found. The sensitivity of the primary CT analysis and of the reassessment was 76% and 88%, respectively; the specificity was 84% and 87%; the positive predictive value was 90% and 93%; the negative predictive value was 64% and 78%; and the accuracy was 78% and 87%. Conclusion: Reassessment of CT images for acute appendicitis by body imaging radiologists results in a significant improvement of sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy. To prevent false-negative interpretation of CT images in acute appendicitis the expertise of the attending radiologist should be considered.

  12. Improving the false-negative rate of CT in acute appendicitis-Reassessment of CT images by body imaging radiologists: A blinded prospective study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poortman, Pieter [Department of Surgery, St Elisabeth Hospital, Tilburg (Netherlands)], E-mail: ppoortman@wlz.nl; Lohle, Paul N.M. [Department of Surgery, St Elisabeth Hospital, Tilburg (Netherlands)], E-mail: plohle@elisabeth.nl; Schoemaker, Cees M. [Department of Surgery, St Elisabeth Hospital, Tilburg (Netherlands)], E-mail: mcschoemaker@elisabeth.nl; Cuesta, Miguel A. [Department of Surgery, VU Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands)], E-mail: ma.cuesta@vumc.nl; Oostvogel, Henk J.M. [Department of Surgery, St Elisabeth Hospital, Tilburg (Netherlands)], E-mail: h.oostvogel@elisabeth.nl; Lange-de Klerk, Elly S.M. de [Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, VU Medical Centre, Amsterdam (Netherlands)], E-mail: esm.delange@vumc.nl; Hamming, Jaap F. [Department of Surgery, Leiden University Medical Centre (Netherlands)], E-mail: j.f.hamming@lumc.nl

    2010-04-15

    Purpose: To compare the accuracy of computed tomography (CT) analyzed by individual radiology staff members and body imaging radiologists in a non-academic teaching hospital for the diagnosis of acute appendicitis. Patients and methods: In a prospective study 199 patients with suspected acute appendicitis were examined with unenhanced CT. CT images were pre-operatively analyzed by one of the 12 members of the radiology staff. In a later stage two body imaging radiologist reassessed all CT images without knowledge of the surgical findings and without knowledge of the primary CT diagnosis. The results, independently reported, were correlated with surgical and histopathologic findings. Results: In 132 patients (66%) acute appendicitis was found at surgery, in 67 patients (34%) a normal appendix was found. The sensitivity of the primary CT analysis and of the reassessment was 76% and 88%, respectively; the specificity was 84% and 87%; the positive predictive value was 90% and 93%; the negative predictive value was 64% and 78%; and the accuracy was 78% and 87%. Conclusion: Reassessment of CT images for acute appendicitis by body imaging radiologists results in a significant improvement of sensitivity, negative predictive value and accuracy. To prevent false-negative interpretation of CT images in acute appendicitis the expertise of the attending radiologist should be considered.

  13. The National Bank of Ukraine Communication Strategy Optimization within the Framework of Impact on Exchange Rate Expectations of Economic Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roksolana Holub

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. Communication enables influence of the volatility of financial markets, improvement of the predictability of monetary policy, and helps to achieve macroeconomic objectives. Nevertheless, as of today, consensus on the issue into what the optimal strategy of the central bank communication is has not been reached, either in Ukraine, nor in developed countries yet. Considering the abovementioned, the methodical approaches to improve the central bank’s communication strategies, based on the use of its verbal interventions in the context of smoothing out excessive cyclical volatility of exchange rates of the national currency, are determined in this article. It is suggested to consider the growth of the factor “information signal/information noise” as a criterion of the central bank’s optimal communication strategy. It is proved that the monetary regulator’s main task should be the continual provision of information concerning a fundamentally justified level of the exchange rate and the level of deviation of the actual rate of the national currency from its fundamental-equilibrium level, as of a given time, to the national foreign exchange market participants. The methodological approach to the improvement of information support of forecasting fundamentally specified value of the national currency is outlined.

  14. The false expectations of Michael Porter's strategic management framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Aktouf

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The article tries to reveal the inadequacies of Porter’s strategic thought from the methodological and epistemological point of view. It shows that the praxiological promises of this thought are impossible to realize given its dubious and impossible to operationalize. The article lacks of fundamental issues (as pointed out by the Resource Based Theorists that the organization needs to assets and harness in order to be successful in its attempt to reach and keep its competitive advantage, making it not easily imitable.

  15. S164. “AT-RISK MENTAL STATES” PROGRAM IN LAUSANNE: INFLUENCE OF RECRUITMENT STRATEGIES ON THE RATE OF FALSE POSITIVES

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solida, Alessandra; Cleusix, Martine; Zorzi, Carline; Ferrari, Carina; Do, Kim Q; Conus, Philippe

    2018-01-01

    information strategy and our focus on psychologists and psychiatrists working at our department. The introduction in 2016 of more intense screening strategy based on the use of the PQ-16 lead to an increase in referral numbers but decreased the rate of ARMS among referred patients. Our results confirm the influence of the recruitment strategy and information campaigns on the prevalence of at-risk patients within a population of help-seekers. The prevalence of schizophrenia spectrum diagnosis in our group of patients ARMS-negative also suggests that a larger “vulnerability” model for psychosis, more sensitive to functioning and negative symptoms and not narrowed on the focus of the risk of imminent acute psychosis, may better fit patients’ needs.

  16. True photographs and false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay, D Stephen; Hagen, Lisa; Read, J Don; Wade, Kimberley A; Garry, Maryanne

    2004-03-01

    Some trauma-memory-oriented psychotherapists advise clients to review old family photo albums to cue suspected "repressed" memories of childhood sexual abuse. Old photos might cue long-forgotten memories, but when combined with other suggestive influences they might also contribute to false memories. We asked 45 undergraduates to work at remembering three school-related childhood events (two true events provided by parents and one pseudoevent). By random assignment, 23 subjects were also given their school classes' group photos from the years of the to-be-recalled events as memory cues. As predicted, the rate of false-memory reports was dramatically higher in the photo condition than in the no-photo condition. Indeed, the rate of false-memory reports in the photo condition was substantially higher than the rate in any previously published study.

  17. Expected measurement of the Z production rate with the CMS detector and simulation of the Tracker Laser Alignment System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Maarten

    2009-06-16

    The Large Hadron Collider is a two-ring, superconducting accelerator and collider which can provide both proton and heavy-ion beams. First collisions are foreseen for 2009. The Compact Muon System (CMS) detector will measure the particles created in the hadron collisions and can confirm the Standard Model by establishing the existence of the Higgs boson, but also search for new phenomena. In order to provide a robust and precise track reconstruction, which can already be used in the High-Level Trigger systems, the positions of the silicon sensors in the CMS tracker have to been known with an accuracy of O(100 {mu}m). Therefore the CMS tracker has been equipped with a dedicated alignment system. The Laser Alignment System (LAS) aligns the tracker subdetectors with respect to each other and can also monitor the stability of the sensor positions during data taking. This study describes the implementation of a realistic simulation of the LAS in the CMS software framework (CMSSW) as well as the analysis of the first data collected during the integration of one of the tracker endcaps. In the present study it has been found that the alignment of the endcaps is possible with an accuracy of approximately 76 {mu}m. These results are in agreement with independent measurements of the TEC geometry using cosmic muons or photogrammetry measurements. The accuracy of approximately 100 {mu}m needed for track pattern recognition and reconstruction can be assured by the Laser Alignment System as shown in this study. Accurate knowledge of the luminosity delivered by the LHC to the experiments is an essential ingredient for many physics studies. The present work uses the production of lepton pairs via the Drell-Yan mechanism to determine the integrated luminosity with the CMS detector. A Monte Carlo generator (MC rate at NLO) including next-to-leading order QCD diagrams has been used to generate Drell-Yan events decaying into two muons. After a full CMS detector simulation, the events

  18. Expected measurement of the Z production rate with the CMS detector and simulation of the Tracker Laser Alignment System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Maarten

    2009-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider is a two-ring, superconducting accelerator and collider which can provide both proton and heavy-ion beams. First collisions are foreseen for 2009. The Compact Muon System (CMS) detector will measure the particles created in the hadron collisions and can confirm the Standard Model by establishing the existence of the Higgs boson, but also search for new phenomena. In order to provide a robust and precise track reconstruction, which can already be used in the High-Level Trigger systems, the positions of the silicon sensors in the CMS tracker have to been known with an accuracy of O(100 μm). Therefore the CMS tracker has been equipped with a dedicated alignment system. The Laser Alignment System (LAS) aligns the tracker subdetectors with respect to each other and can also monitor the stability of the sensor positions during data taking. This study describes the implementation of a realistic simulation of the LAS in the CMS software framework (CMSSW) as well as the analysis of the first data collected during the integration of one of the tracker endcaps. In the present study it has been found that the alignment of the endcaps is possible with an accuracy of approximately 76 μm. These results are in agreement with independent measurements of the TEC geometry using cosmic muons or photogrammetry measurements. The accuracy of approximately 100 μm needed for track pattern recognition and reconstruction can be assured by the Laser Alignment System as shown in this study. Accurate knowledge of the luminosity delivered by the LHC to the experiments is an essential ingredient for many physics studies. The present work uses the production of lepton pairs via the Drell-Yan mechanism to determine the integrated luminosity with the CMS detector. A Monte Carlo generator (MC rate at NLO) including next-to-leading order QCD diagrams has been used to generate Drell-Yan events decaying into two muons. After a full CMS detector simulation, the events have

  19. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  20. Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Šimpach

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

  1. False Positive and False Negative Effects on Network Attacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shang, Yilun

    2018-01-01

    Robustness against attacks serves as evidence for complex network structures and failure mechanisms that lie behind them. Most often, due to detection capability limitation or good disguises, attacks on networks are subject to false positives and false negatives, meaning that functional nodes may be falsely regarded as compromised by the attacker and vice versa. In this work, we initiate a study of false positive/negative effects on network robustness against three fundamental types of attack strategies, namely, random attacks (RA), localized attacks (LA), and targeted attack (TA). By developing a general mathematical framework based upon the percolation model, we investigate analytically and by numerical simulations of attack robustness with false positive/negative rate (FPR/FNR) on three benchmark models including Erdős-Rényi (ER) networks, random regular (RR) networks, and scale-free (SF) networks. We show that ER networks are equivalently robust against RA and LA only when FPR equals zero or the initial network is intact. We find several interesting crossovers in RR and SF networks when FPR is taken into consideration. By defining the cost of attack, we observe diminishing marginal attack efficiency for RA, LA, and TA. Our finding highlights the potential risk of underestimating or ignoring FPR in understanding attack robustness. The results may provide insights into ways of enhancing robustness of network architecture and improve the level of protection of critical infrastructures.

  2. Systemic True False

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Preferred Customer

    ):. (a). (b). (c). (d). Answer: True systemics are (b & c); False Systemics (a & d). For more examples, see (10 and 11). Na2O2. NaCl. Na. HCl heat /excess. (O). 300°C electrolysis. (molten). NaOH. NaCl. Na. HCl. H2O electrolysis. (solution). NaCl.

  3. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  4. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  5. Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

  6. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    -dimensional integrals required in the EM algorithm are estimated using MCMC sampling. The MCMC sampler requires simulation of sample paths from a continuous time Markov process, conditional on the beginning and ending states and the paths of the neighboring sites. An exact path sampling algorithm is developed......The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor......-dependent substitution models are analytically intractable and must be analyzed using either approximate or simulation-based methods. We describe statistical inference of neighbor-dependent models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCMC-EM) algorithm. In the MCMC-EM algorithm, the high...

  7. False memories and confabulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M K; Raye, C L

    1998-04-01

    Memory distortions range from the benign (thinking you mailed a check that you only thought about mailing), to the serious (confusing what you heard after a crime with what you actually saw), to the fantastic (claiming you piloted a spaceship). We review theoretical ideas and empirical evidence about the source monitoring processes underlying both true and false memories. Neuropsychological studies show that certain forms of brain damage (such as combined frontal and medial-temporal lesions) might result in profound source confusions, called confabulations. Neuroimaging techniques provide new evidence regarding more specific links between underlying brain mechanisms and the normal cognitive processes involved in evaluating memories. One hypothesis is that the right prefrontal cortex (PFC) subserves heuristic judgments based on easily assessed qualities (such as familiarity or perceptual detail) and the left PFC (or the right and left PFC together) subserves more systematic judgments requiring more careful analysis of memorial qualities or retrieval and evaluation of additional supporting or disconfirming information. Such heuristic and systematic processes can be disrupted not only by brain damage but also, for example, by hypnosis, social demands and motivational factors, suggesting caution in the methods used by `memory exploring' professions (therapists, police officers, lawyers, etc.) in order to avoid inducing false memories.

  8. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  9. False color viewing device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kronberg, J.W.

    1992-01-01

    A viewing device for observing objects in near-infrared false-color comprising a pair of goggles with one or more filters in the apertures, and pads that engage the face for blocking stray light from the sides so that all light reaching the user's eyes come through the filters. The filters attenuate most visible light and pass near-infrared (having wavelengths longer than approximately 700 nm) and a small amount of blue-green and blue-violet (having wavelengths in the 500 to 520 nm and shorter than 435 nm, respectively). The goggles are useful for looking at vegetation to identify different species and for determining the health of the vegetation, and to detect some forms of camouflage. 7 figs

  10. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  11. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  12. Beyond Extinction: Prolonged Conditioning and Repeated Threat Exposure Abolish Contextual Renewal of Fear-Potentiated Startle Discrimination but Leave Expectancy Ratings Intact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leer, Arne; Haesen, Kim; Vervliet, Bram

    2018-01-01

    Extinction treatments decrease fear via repeated exposures to the conditioned stimulus (CS) and are associated with a return of fear. Alternatively, fear can be reduced via reductions in the perceived intensity of the unconditioned stimulus (US), e.g., through repeated exposures to the US. Promisingly, the few available studies show that repeated US exposures outperform standard extinction. US exposure treatments can decrease fear via two routes: (1) by weakening the CS-US association (extinction-like mechanism), and/or (2) by weakening the subjective US aversiveness (habituation-like mechanism). The current study further investigated the conditions under which US exposure treatment may reduce renewal, by adding a group in which CS-US pairings continued following fear acquisition. During acquisition, participants learned that one of two visual stimuli (CS+/CS-) predicted the occurrence of an aversive electrocutaneous stimulus (US). Next, the background context changed and participants received one of three interventions: repeated CS exposures, (2) repeated US exposures, or (3) continued CS-US pairings. Following repeated CS exposures, test presentations of the CSs in the original conditioning context revealed intact CS+/CS- differentiation in the fear-potentiated startle reflex, while the differentiation was abolished in the other two groups. Differential US expectancy ratings, on the other hand, were intact in all groups. Skin conductance data were inconclusive because standard context renewal following CS exposures did not occur. Unexpectedly, there was no evidence for a habituation-like process having taken place during US exposures or continued CS-US pairings. The results provide further evidence that US exposures outperform the standard extinction treatment and show that effects are similar when US exposures are part of CS-US pairings.

  13. Bandwagon voting or false-consensus effect in voting experiments? First results and methodological limits

    OpenAIRE

    Bischoff, Ivo; Egbert, Henrik

    2008-01-01

    In an experiment designed to test for expressive voting, Tyran (JPubEc 2004) found a strong positive correlation between the participants' approval to a proposal to donate money for charity and their expected approval rate for fellow voters. This phenomenon can be due to a bandwagon effect or a false consensus effect. Both effects have been reported for voting decisions in the social science literature. Redoing Tyran's experiment and adding new treatments, we provide evidence for a false cons...

  14. Community expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, L.

    2004-01-01

    Historically, the relationship between the nuclear generator and the local community has been one of stability and co-operation. However in more recent times (2000-2003) the nuclear landscape has had several major issues that directly effect the local nuclear host communities. - The associations mandate is to be supportive of the nuclear industry through ongoing dialogue, mutual cooperation and education, - To strengthen community representation with the nuclear industry and politically through networking with other nuclear host communities. As a result of these issues, the Mayors of a number of communities started having informal meetings to discuss the issues at hand and how they effect their constituents. These meetings led to the official formation of the CANHC with representation from: In Canada it is almost impossible to discuss decommissioning and dismantling of Nuclear Facilities without also discussing Nuclear Waste disposal for reasons that I will soon make clear. Also I would like to briefly touch on how and why expectation of communities may differ by geography and circumstance. (author)

  15. Effects of Instructions on False Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, John H.; And Others

    Four experiments were conducted to examine the effects of various processing instructions on the rate of false recognition. The continuous single-item procedure was used, and false recognitions of four types were examined: synonyms, antonyms, nonsemantic associates, and homonyms. The instructions encouraged subjects to think of associates, usages…

  16. Comparison of false-negative rates and limits of detection following macrofoam-swab sampling of Bacillus anthracis surrogates via Rapid Viability PCR and plate culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hutchison, J. R. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Piepel, G. F. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Amidan, B. G. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Hess, B. M. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Sydor, M. A. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA; Deatherage Kaiser, B. L. [National Security Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland WA USA

    2018-03-13

    Aims: We evaluated the effects of Bacillus anthracis surrogates, low surface concentrations, surface materials, and assay methods on false-negative rate (FNR) and limit of detection (LOD95) for recovering Bacillus spores using a macrofoam-swab sampling procedure. Methods and Results: Bacillus anthracis Sterne or Bacillus atrophaeus Nakamura spores were deposited over a range of low target concentrations (2 – 500 coupon-1) onto glass, stainless steel, vinyl tile, and plastic. Samples were assayed using a modified Rapid Viability-PCR (mRV-PCR) method and the traditional plate culture method to obtain FNR and LOD95 results. Conclusions: Mean FNRs tended to be lower for mRV-PCR compared to culturing, and increased as spore concentration decreased for all surface materials. Surface material, but not B. anthracis surrogate, influenced FNRs with the mRV-PCR method. The mRV-PCR LOD95 was lowest for glass and highest for vinyl tile. LOD95 values overall were lower for mRV-PCR than for the culture method. Significance and Impact of Study: This study adds to the limited data on FNR and LOD95 for mRV-PCR and culturing methods with low concentrations of B. anthracis sampled from various surface materials by the CDC macrofoam-swab method. These are key inputs for planning characterization and clearance studies for low contamination levels of B. anthracis.

  17. The semantics of emotion in false memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Bookbinder, S H

    2018-03-26

    The emotional valence of target information has been a centerpiece of recent false memory research, but in most experiments, it has been confounded with emotional arousal. We sought to clarify the results of such research by identifying a shared mathematical relation between valence and arousal ratings in commonly administered normed materials. That relation was then used to (a) decide whether arousal as well as valence influences false memory when they are confounded and to (b) determine whether semantic properties that are known to affect false memory covary with valence and arousal ratings. In Study 1, we identified a quadratic relation between valence and arousal ratings of words and pictures that has 2 key properties: Arousal increases more rapidly as function of negative valence than positive valence, and hence, a given level of negative valence is more arousing than the same level of positive valence. This quadratic function predicts that if arousal as well as valence affects false memory when they are confounded, false memory data must have certain fine-grained properties. In Study 2, those properties were absent from norming data for the Cornell-Cortland Emotional Word Lists, indicating that valence but not arousal affects false memory in those norms. In Study 3, we tested fuzzy-trace theory's explanation of that pattern: that valence ratings are positively related to semantic properties that are known to increase false memory, but arousal ratings are not. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  19. Effects of hydrocortisone on false memory recognition in healthy men and women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duesenberg, Moritz; Weber, Juliane; Schaeuffele, Carmen; Fleischer, Juliane; Hellmann-Regen, Julian; Roepke, Stefan; Moritz, Steffen; Otte, Christian; Wingenfeld, Katja

    2016-12-01

    Most of the studies focusing on the effect of stress on false memories by using psychosocial and physiological stressors yielded diverse results. In the present study, we systematically tested the effect of exogenous hydrocortisone using a false memory paradigm. In this placebo-controlled study, 37 healthy men and 38 healthy women (mean age 24.59 years) received either 10 mg of hydrocortisone or placebo 75 min before using the false memory, that is, Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM), paradigm. We used emotionally charged and neutral DRM-based word lists to look for false recognition rates in comparison to true recognition rates. Overall, we expected an increase in false memory after hydrocortisone compared to placebo. No differences between the cortisol and the placebo group were revealed for false and for true recognition performance. In general, false recognition rates were lower compared to true recognition rates. Furthermore, we found a valence effect (neutral, positive, negative, disgust word stimuli), indicating higher rates of true and false recognition for emotional compared to neutral words. We further found an interaction effect between sex and recognition. Post hoc t tests showed that for true recognition women showed a significantly better memory performance than men, independent of treatment. This study does not support the hypothesis that cortisol decreases the ability to distinguish between old versus novel words in young healthy individuals. However, sex and emotional valence of word stimuli appear to be important moderators. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  20. False Position, Double False Position and Cramer's Rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boman, Eugene

    2009-01-01

    We state and prove the methods of False Position (Regula Falsa) and Double False Position (Regula Duorum Falsorum). The history of both is traced from ancient Egypt and China through the work of Fibonacci, ending with a connection between Double False Position and Cramer's Rule.

  1. False memories for aggressive acts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laney, Cara; Takarangi, Melanie K T

    2013-06-01

    Can people develop false memories for committing aggressive acts? How does this process compare to developing false memories for victimhood? In the current research we used a simple false feedback procedure to implant false memories for committing aggressive acts (causing a black eye or spreading malicious gossip) or for victimhood (receiving a black eye). We then compared these false memories to other subjects' true memories for equivalent events. False aggressive memories were all too easy to implant, particularly in the minds of individuals with a proclivity towards aggression. Once implanted, the false memories were indistinguishable from true memories for the same events, on several dimensions, including emotional content. Implications for aggression-related memory more generally as well as false confessions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Complementarity in false memory illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Reyna, V F

    2018-03-01

    For some years, the DRM illusion has been the most widely studied form of false memory. The consensus theoretical interpretation is that the illusion is a reality reversal, in which certain new words (critical distractors) are remembered as though they are old list words rather than as what they are-new words that are similar to old ones. This reality-reversal interpretation is supported by compelling lines of evidence, but prior experiments are limited by the fact that their memory tests only asked whether test items were old. We removed that limitation by also asking whether test items were new-similar. This more comprehensive methodology revealed that list words and critical distractors are remembered quite differently. Memory for list words is compensatory: They are remembered as old at high rates and remembered as new-similar at very low rates. In contrast, memory for critical distractors is complementary: They are remembered as both old and new-similar at high rates, which means that the DRM procedure induces a complementarity illusion rather than a reality reversal. The conjoint recognition model explains complementarity as a function of three retrieval processes (semantic familiarity, target recollection, and context recollection), and it predicts that complementarity can be driven up or down by varying the mix of those processes. Our experiments generated data on that prediction and introduced a convenient statistic, the complementarity ratio, which measures (a) the level of complementarity in memory performance and (b) whether its direction is reality-consistent or reality-reversed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuvan, Dominique T; Podolak, Olivia M; Schmuckler, Mark A

    2014-01-01

    Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics.

  4. Memory for musical tones: The impact of tonality and the creation of false memories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominique T. Vuvan

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics.

  5. Memory for musical tones: the impact of tonality and the creation of false memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vuvan, Dominique T.; Podolak, Olivia M.; Schmuckler, Mark A.

    2014-01-01

    Although the relation between tonality and musical memory has been fairly well-studied, less is known regarding the contribution of tonal-schematic expectancies to this relation. Three experiments investigated the influence of tonal expectancies on memory for single tones in a tonal melodic context. In the first experiment, listener responses indicated superior recognition of both expected and unexpected targets in a major tonal context than for moderately expected targets. Importantly, and in support of previous work on false memories, listener responses also revealed a higher false alarm rate for expected than unexpected targets. These results indicate roles for tonal schematic congruency as well as distinctiveness in memory for melodic tones. The second experiment utilized minor melodies, which weakened tonal expectancies since the minor tonality can be represented in three forms simultaneously. Finally, tonal expectancies were abolished entirely in the third experiment through the use of atonal melodies. Accordingly, the expectancy-based results observed in the first experiment were disrupted in the second experiment, and disappeared in the third experiment. These results are discussed in light of schema theory, musical expectancy, and classic memory work on the availability and distinctiveness heuristics. PMID:24971071

  6. A very low geno2pheno false positive rate is associated with poor viro-immunological response in drug-naïve patients starting a first-line HAART.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armenia, Daniele; Soulie, Cathia; Di Carlo, Domenico; Fabeni, Lavinia; Gori, Caterina; Forbici, Federica; Svicher, Valentina; Bertoli, Ada; Sarmati, Loredana; Giuliani, Massimo; Latini, Alessandra; Boumis, Evangelo; Zaccarelli, Mauro; Bellagamba, Rita; Andreoni, Massimo; Marcelin, Anne-Geneviève; Calvez, Vincent; Antinori, Andrea; Ceccherini-Silberstein, Francesca; Perno, Carlo-Federico; Santoro, Maria Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    We previously found that a very low geno2pheno false positive rate (FPR ≤ 2%) defines a viral population associated with low CD4 cell count and the highest amount of X4-quasispecies. In this study, we aimed at evaluating whether FPR ≤ 2% might impact on the viro-immunological response in HIV-1 infected patients starting a first-line HAART. The analysis was performed on 305 HIV-1 B subtype infected drug-naïve patients who started their first-line HAART. Baseline FPR (%) values were stratified according to the following ranges: ≤ 2; 2-5; 5-10; 10-20; 20-60; >60. The impact of genotypically-inferred tropism on the time to achieve immunological reconstitution (a CD4 cell count gain from HAART initiation ≥ 150 cells/mm(3)) and on the time to achieve virological success (the first HIV-RNA measurement immunological reconstitution was overall 75.5%, and it was significantly lower for FPR ≤ 2 (54.1%) in comparison to other FPR ranks (78.8%, FPR 2-5; 77.5%, FPR 5-10; 71.7%, FPR 10-20; 81.8%, FPR 20-60; 75.1%, FPR >60; p = 0.008). The overall proportion of patients achieving virological success was 95.5% by 12 months of therapy. Multivariable Cox analyses showed that patients having pre-HAART FPR ≤ 2% had a significant lower relative adjusted hazard [95% C.I.] both to achieve immunological reconstitution (0.37 [0.20-0.71], p = 0.003) and to achieve virological success (0.50 [0.26-0.94], p = 0.031) than those with pre-HAART FPR >60%. Beyond the genotypically-inferred tropism determination, FPR ≤ 2% predicts both a poor immunological reconstitution and a lower virological response in drug-naïve patients who started their first-line therapy. This parameter could be useful to identify patients potentially with less chance of achieving adequate immunological reconstitution and virological undetectability.

  7. Device to detect the presence of a pure signal in a discrete noisy signal measured at an average rate of constant noise with a probability of false detection lower than one predeterminated

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poussier, E.; Rambaut, M.

    1986-01-01

    Detection consists of a measurement of a counting rate. A probability of wrong detection is associated with this counting rate and with an average estimated rate of noise. Detection consists also in comparing the wrong detection probability to a predeterminated rate of wrong detection. The comparison can use tabulated values. Application is made to corpuscule radiation detection [fr

  8. Interference in the ggfalse'>→hfalse'>→γγ On-Shell Rate and the Higgs Boson Total Width

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campbell, John; Carena, Marcela; Harnik, Roni; Liu, Zhen

    2017-10-01

    We consider interference between the Higgs signal and QCD background in $gg\\rightarrow h \\rightarrow \\gamma\\gamma$ and its effect on the on-shell Higgs rate. The existence of sizable strong phases leads to destructive interference of about 2% of the on-shell cross section in the Standard Model. This effect can be enhanced by beyond the standard model physics. In particular, since it scales differently from the usual rates, the presence of interference allows indirect limits to be placed on the Higgs width in a novel way, using on-shell rate measurements. Our study motivates further QCD calculations to reduce uncertainties. We discuss potential width-sensitive observables, both using total and differential rates and find that the HL-LHC can potentially indirectly probe widths of order tens of MeV.

  9. Chasing the deal with the money: Measuring the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of private equity funds to maximize their internal rate of return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Scarpati

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A number of scholars of private equity (“PE” have attempted to assess the ex-post returns, or performance, of PEs by adopting an ex-post perspective of asset pricing. In doing so a set of phenomena has been recognized that is thought to be specific to the PE sector, such as “money-chasing deal phenomenon” (Gompers and Lerner, 2000 and “performance persistence” (Lerner and Schoar, 2005. However, based on their continuing use of an ex-post perspective, few scholars have paid attention to the possible extent to which these and other PE phenomena may affect expected returns from PE investments. To address this problem this article draws on an ex-ante perspective of investment decision-making in suggesting how a number of drivers and factors of PE phenomena may produce “abnormal returns”, and that each of those drivers and factors should therefore be considered in accurately assessing the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of PE investments. In making these contributions we examined a private equity investment of a regional PE in Italy and administered a telephone questionnaire to 40 PEs in Italy and the UK and found principally that while size is the most important driver in producing abnormal returns illiquidity alone cannot explain the expected returns of PE investments (cf. Franzoni et al., 2012. Based on our findings we developed a predictive model of PE decision-making that draws on an ex-ante perspective of asset pricing and takes into account PE phenomena and abnormal returns. This model extends the work of Franzoni et al. (2012, Jegadeesh et al. (2009, and Korteweg and Sorensen (2010 who did not consider the possible influence of PE phenomena in decision-making and will also help PE managers in making better-informed decisions.

  10. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  11. Caesarean section rates and adverse neonatal outcomes after induction of labour versus expectant management in women with an unripe cervix : a secondary analysis of the HYPITAT and DIGITAT trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernardes, T. P.; Broekhuijsen, K.; Koopmans, C. M.; Boers, K. E.; van Wyk, L.; Tajik, P.; van Pampus, M. G.; Scherjon, S. A.; Mol, B. W.; Franssen, M. T.; Berg, van den P. P.; Groen, Henk

    Objective To evaluate caesarean section and adverse neonatal outcome rates after induction of labour or expectant management in women with an unripe cervix at or near term. Design Secondary analysis of data from two randomised clinical trials. Setting Data were collected in two nationwide Dutch

  12. Reduced False Memory after Sleep

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenn, Kimberly M.; Gallo, David A.; Margoliash, Daniel; Roediger, Henry L., III; Nusbaum, Howard C.

    2009-01-01

    Several studies have shown that sleep contributes to the successful maintenance of previously encoded information. This research has focused exclusively on memory for studied events, as opposed to false memories. Here we report three experiments showing that sleep reduces false memories in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) memory illusion. False…

  13. Adaptive false memory: Imagining future scenarios increases false memories in the DRM paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dewhurst, Stephen A; Anderson, Rachel J; Grace, Lydia; van Esch, Lotte

    2016-10-01

    Previous research has shown that rating words for their relevance to a future scenario enhances memory for those words. The current study investigated the effect of future thinking on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) procedure. In Experiment 1, participants rated words from 6 DRM lists for relevance to a past or future event (with or without planning) or in terms of pleasantness. In a surprise recall test, levels of correct recall did not vary between the rating tasks, but the future rating conditions led to significantly higher levels of false recall than the past and pleasantness conditions did. Experiment 2 found that future rating led to higher levels of false recognition than did past and pleasantness ratings but did not affect correct recognition. The effect in false recognition was, however, eliminated when DRM items were presented in random order. Participants in Experiment 3 were presented with both DRM lists and lists of unrelated words. Future rating increased levels of false recognition for DRM lures but did not affect correct recognition for DRM or unrelated lists. The findings are discussed in terms of the view that false memories can be associated with adaptive memory functions.

  14. Evaluation of HIV testing algorithms in Ethiopia: the role of the tie-breaker algorithm and weakly reacting test lines in contributing to a high rate of false positive HIV diagnoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, Leslie; Siddiqui, M Ruby; Kliescikova, Jarmila; Pearce, Neil; Ariti, Cono; Muluneh, Libsework; Pirou, Erwan; Ritmeijer, Koert; Masiga, Johnson; Abebe, Almaz

    2015-02-03

    In Ethiopia a tiebreaker algorithm using 3 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) in series is used to diagnose HIV. Discordant results between the first 2 RDTs are resolved by a third 'tiebreaker' RDT. Médecins Sans Frontières uses an alternate serial algorithm of 2 RDTs followed by a confirmation test for all double positive RDT results. The primary objective was to compare the performance of the tiebreaker algorithm with a serial algorithm, and to evaluate the addition of a confirmation test to both algorithms. A secondary objective looked at the positive predictive value (PPV) of weakly reactive test lines. The study was conducted in two HIV testing sites in Ethiopia. Study participants were recruited sequentially until 200 positive samples were reached. Each sample was re-tested in the laboratory on the 3 RDTs and on a simple to use confirmation test, the Orgenics Immunocomb Combfirm® (OIC). The gold standard test was the Western Blot, with indeterminate results resolved by PCR testing. 2620 subjects were included with a HIV prevalence of 7.7%. Each of the 3 RDTs had an individual specificity of at least 99%. The serial algorithm with 2 RDTs had a single false positive result (1 out of 204) to give a PPV of 99.5% (95% CI 97.3%-100%). The tiebreaker algorithm resulted in 16 false positive results (PPV 92.7%, 95% CI: 88.4%-95.8%). Adding the OIC confirmation test to either algorithm eliminated the false positives. All the false positives had at least one weakly reactive test line in the algorithm. The PPV of weakly reacting RDTs was significantly lower than those with strongly positive test lines. The risk of false positive HIV diagnosis in a tiebreaker algorithm is significant. We recommend abandoning the tie-breaker algorithm in favour of WHO recommended serial or parallel algorithms, interpreting weakly reactive test lines as indeterminate results requiring further testing except in the setting of blood transfusion, and most importantly, adding a confirmation test

  15. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor...

  16. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  17. Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waziri, Salisu Ibrahim; Mohamed Nor, Norashidah; Raja Abdullah, Nik Mustapha; Adamu, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The productivity of countries around the globe is adversely affected by the health-related problems of their labour force. This study examined the effect of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and life expectancy on the economic growth of 33 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over a period of 11 years (2002-2012). The study employed a dynamic panel approach as opposed to the static traditional approach utilised in the literature. The dynamic approach became eminent because of the fact that HIV/AIDS is a dynamic variable as its prevalence today depends on the previous years. The result revealed that HIV/AIDS is negatively correlated with economic growth in the region, with a coefficient of 0.014, and significant at the 1% level. That is, a 10% increase in HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to a 0.14% decrease in the GDP of the region. Tackling HIV/AIDS is therefore imperative to the developing Sub-Saharan African region and all hands must be on deck to end the menace globally.

  18. The false positive exercise test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moritani, Kohshiro; Matsuda, Yasuo; Ozaki, Masaharu; Ogawa, Hiroshi; Ichiyama, Masaji; Matsuda, Masako; Kusukawa, Reizo

    1986-01-01

    Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin were performed on 7 patients with true positive and 8 patients with false positive exercise test results. Four of 7 patients with true positive changes and 8 patients with false positive changes underwent exercise cardiac scintigraphy. Scintigrams showed perfusion defects in 4 patients with true positive outcomes, and no perfusion defect in 8 patients with false positive outcomes. Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin were performed with the same load as that without nitroglycerin. In all 7 patients with true positive exercise test results, ST segment depression observed in the control exercise test was not observed in the nitroglycerin exercise test. In the false positive patients, ST segment depression observed in the control exercise test remained unchanged in 7 of 8 patients receiving nitroglycerin. Exercise tests with sublingual nitroglycerin as well as exercise cardiac scintigraphy are valuable tods in differentiating false positive from true positive patients. Furthermore, these data suggest that ST segment depression in the false positive patients may not be related to myocardial ischemia. (author)

  19. The False Memory and the Mirror Effects: The Role of Familiarity and Backward Association in Creating False Recollections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anaki, D.; Faran, Y.; Ben-Shalom, D.; Henik, A.

    2005-01-01

    The mirror effect refers to a phenomenon where the hit rate is higher for low frequency words while the false alarm rate is higher for high frequency distractors. Using a false memory paradigm (Roediger & McDermott, 1995), we examined whether false memory for non-presented lures would be influenced by the lure's familiarity. The results revealed…

  20. Reducing false asystole alarms in intensive care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekimpe, Remi; Heldt, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    High rates of false monitoring alarms in intensive care can desensitize staff and therefore pose a significant risk to patient safety. Like other critical arrhythmia alarms, asystole alarms require immediate attention by the care providers as a true asystole event can be acutely life threatening. Here, it is illustrated that most false asystole alarms can be attributed to poor signal quality, and we propose and evaluate an algorithm to identify data windows of poor signal quality and thereby help suppress false asystole alarms. The algorithm combines intuitive signal-quality features (degree of signal saturation and baseline wander) and information from other physiological signals that might be available. Algorithm training and testing was performed on the MIMIC II and 2015 PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge databases, respectively. The algorithm achieved an alarm specificity of 81.0% and sensitivity of 95.4%, missing only one out of 22 true asystole alarms. On a separate neonatal data set, the algorithm was able to reject 89.7% (890 out of 992) of false asystole alarms while keeping all 22 true events. The results show that the false asystole alarm rate can be significantly reduced through basic signal quality evaluation.

  1. Psychoactive drugs and false memory: comparison of dextroamphetamine and delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol on false recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Michael E.; Gallo, David A.; de Wit, Harriet

    2014-01-01

    Rationale Several psychoactive drugs are known to influence episodic memory. However, these drugs’ effects on false memory, or the tendency to incorrectly remember nonstudied information, remain poorly understood. Objectives Here, we examined the effects of two commonly used psychoactive drugs, one with memory-enhancing properties (dextroamphetamine; AMP), and another with memory-impairing properties (Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol; THC), on false memory using the Deese/Roediger–McDermott (DRM) illusion. Methods Two parallel studies were conducted in which healthy volunteers received either AMP (0, 10, and 20 mg) or THC (0, 7.5, and 15 mg) in within-subjects, randomized, double-blind designs. Participants studied DRM word lists under the influence of the drugs, and their recognition memory for the studied words was tested 2 days later, under sober conditions. Results As expected, AMP increased memory of studied words relative to placebo, and THC reduced memory of studied words. Although neither drug significantly affected false memory relative to placebo, AMP increased false memory relative to THC. Across participants, both drugs’ effects on true memory were positively correlated with their effects on false memory. Conclusions Our results indicate that AMP and THC have opposing effects on true memory, and these effects appear to correspond to similar, albeit more subtle, effects on false memory. These findings are consistent with previous research using the DRM illusion and provide further evidence that psychoactive drugs can affect the encoding processes that ultimately result in the creation of false memories. PMID:21647577

  2. Psychoactive drugs and false memory: comparison of dextroamphetamine and δ-9-tetrahydrocannabinol on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Michael E; Gallo, David A; de Wit, Harriet

    2012-01-01

    Several psychoactive drugs are known to influence episodic memory. However, these drugs' effects on false memory, or the tendency to incorrectly remember nonstudied information, remain poorly understood. Here, we examined the effects of two commonly used psychoactive drugs, one with memory-enhancing properties (dextroamphetamine; AMP), and another with memory-impairing properties (Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol; THC), on false memory using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) illusion. Two parallel studies were conducted in which healthy volunteers received either AMP (0, 10, and 20 mg) or THC (0, 7.5, and 15 mg) in within-subjects, randomized, double-blind designs. Participants studied DRM word lists under the influence of the drugs, and their recognition memory for the studied words was tested 2 days later, under sober conditions. As expected, AMP increased memory of studied words relative to placebo, and THC reduced memory of studied words. Although neither drug significantly affected false memory relative to placebo, AMP increased false memory relative to THC. Across participants, both drugs' effects on true memory were positively correlated with their effects on false memory. Our results indicate that AMP and THC have opposing effects on true memory, and these effects appear to correspond to similar, albeit more subtle, effects on false memory. These findings are consistent with previous research using the DRM illusion and provide further evidence that psychoactive drugs can affect the encoding processes that ultimately result in the creation of false memories.

  3. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  4. Sleep loss produces false memories.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susanne Diekelmann

    Full Text Available People sometimes claim with high confidence to remember events that in fact never happened, typically due to strong semantic associations with actually encoded events. Sleep is known to provide optimal neurobiological conditions for consolidation of memories for long-term storage, whereas sleep deprivation acutely impairs retrieval of stored memories. Here, focusing on the role of sleep-related memory processes, we tested whether false memories can be created (a as enduring memory representations due to a consolidation-associated reorganization of new memory representations during post-learning sleep and/or (b as an acute retrieval-related phenomenon induced by sleep deprivation at memory testing. According to the Deese, Roediger, McDermott (DRM false memory paradigm, subjects learned lists of semantically associated words (e.g., "night", "dark", "coal",..., lacking the strongest common associate or theme word (here: "black". Subjects either slept or stayed awake immediately after learning, and they were either sleep deprived or not at recognition testing 9, 33, or 44 hours after learning. Sleep deprivation at retrieval, but not sleep following learning, critically enhanced false memories of theme words. This effect was abolished by caffeine administration prior to retrieval, indicating that adenosinergic mechanisms can contribute to the generation of false memories associated with sleep loss.

  5. False Positives in Exoplanet Detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuquire, Jacob; Kasper, David; Jang-Condell, Hannah; Kar, Aman; Sorber, Rebecca; Suhaimi, Afiq; KELT (Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope)

    2018-06-01

    Our team at the University of Wyoming uses a 0.6 m telescope at RBO (Red Buttes Observatory) to help confirm results on potential exoplanet candidates from low resolution, wide field surveys shared by the KELT (Kilodegree Extremely Little Telescope) team. False positives are common in this work. We carry out transit photometry, and this method comes with special types of false positives. The most common false positive seen at the confirmation level is an EB (eclipsing binary). Low resolution images are great in detecting multiple sources for photometric dips in light curves, but they lack the precision to decipher single targets at an accurate level. For example, target star KC18C030621 needed RBO’s photometric precision to determine there was a nearby EB causing exoplanet type light curves. Identifying false positives with our telescope is important work because it helps eliminate the waste of time taken by more expensive telescopes trying to rule out negative candidate stars. It also furthers the identification of other types of photometric events, like eclipsing binaries, so they can be studied on their own.

  6. Evolutionary Psychology and False Confession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bering, Jesse M.; Shackelford, Todd K.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents comments on Kassin's review, (see record 2005-03019-002) of the psychology of false confessions. The authors note that Kassin's review makes a compelling argument for the need for legal reform in police interrogation practices. Because his work strikes at the heart of the American criminal justice system--its fairness--the…

  7. Development and validation of a risk stratification score for ventral incisional hernia after abdominal surgery: hernia expectation rates in intra-abdominal surgery (the HERNIA Project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenough, Christopher J; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Nguyen, Mylan T; Holihan, Julie L; Alawadi, Zeinab; Nguyen, Duyen H; Flores, Juan R; Arita, Nestor T; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K

    2015-04-01

    clinical decisions. Increasing the use of laparoscopy, weight-loss programs, community smoking prevention programs, and incisional reinforcement may help reduce rates of VIH. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  9. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  10. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  11. Trust, values and false consensus

    OpenAIRE

    Butler, Jeffrey V.; Giuliano, Paola; Guiso, Luigi

    2012-01-01

    Trust beliefs are heterogeneous across individuals and, at the same time, persistent across generations. We investigate one mechanism yielding these dual patterns: false consensus. In the context of a trust game experiment, we show that individuals extrapolate from their own type when forming trust beliefs about the same pool of potential partners – i.e., more (less) trustworthy individuals form more optimistic (pessimistic) trust beliefs - and that this tendency continues to color trust beli...

  12. Event rates to be expected at PEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, B.

    1988-01-01

    As a guide for planning experiments at PEP, some estimates are given of average luminosity, charged and neutral particle yields vs. momentum, QED test capabilities, and weak interaction effects. 2 figs

  13. Nuclear war as false memory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Timberlake

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper Timberlake outlines aspects of his creative practice as an artist, explaining his fascination for the ‘fictions of nuclear war’ – a war that never happened and so became the subject of ‘false memory’. Highlighting discontinued historical trajectories, the author shows how the cultural legacy of Britain’s nuclear test programme of the 1950s and ’60s may be explored meaningfully in paintings and photography resulting from his archival research at the Imperial War Museum in London.

  14. False advertising in the greenhouse?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banse, K.

    1991-12-01

    Most scientists are convinced of the importance of their own research subjects. Broecker [1991] has deplored the temptation, if not the tendency, to go overboard and exaggerate this importance once funding enters the mind. In particular, he alleges inflated or even false claims by biological (and other) oceanographers regarding the relevance of their research to the "greenhouse effect," caused by the anthropogenic enhancement of the atmospheric CO2 content. He writes [Broecker, 1991, p. 191]: "In my estimation, on any list of subjects requiring intense study with regard to the prediction of the consequences of CO2 buildup in the atmosphere, I would place marine biological cycles near the bottom."

  15. The influence of the noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) resection diagnosis on the false-positive thyroid cytology rate relates to quality assurance thresholds and the application of NIFTP criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohori, N Paul; Wolfe, Jenna; Carty, Sally E; Yip, Linwah; LeBeau, Shane O; Berg, Aaron N; Schoedel, Karen E; Nikiforov, Yuri E; Seethala, Raja R

    2017-09-01

    Noninvasive follicular thyroid neoplasm with papillary-like nuclear features (NIFTP) is a newly defined entity and recent studies have suggested a decrease of a few percentage points in the rate of malignancy (ROM) for the positive-for-malignancy (PFM) cytology category as a result of NIFTP implementation. However, the distinction between a diagnosis of PFM and one of suspicious for malignancy (SFM) may depend on a variety of factors. In the current study, the authors investigated the ROM for the PFM and SFM diagnoses before and after histologic NIFTP reclassification. Cytology cases with PFM and SFM diagnoses and subsequent surgical resection specimens were searched in the files of the study institution from September 2008 to September 2016. The surgical pathology cases of noninvasive encapsulated follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma were reexamined to determine whether they qualified for NIFTP. The distinct ROMs for the PFM and SFM cases were calculated accordingly. The authors' search identified 338 cases of PFM and 139 cases of SFM with a resection outcome. Before NIFTP reclassification, the PFM cases had a ROM of 99.4%; after NIFTP reclassification, the ROM was 99.1% (P = .6861). The ROM of the SFM cases decreased from 75.5% to 66.9% with NIFTP reclassification (P = .1402). One case in the PFM group and 6 cases in the SFM group could not be verified due to insufficient sampling. In the current large series, NIFTP reclassification did not appear to significantly alter the high ROM for the PFM diagnosis. The authors attribute this finding to a strict quality assurance policy, an emphasis on key cytologic criteria, and systematic application of the NIFTP criteria to follicular-patterned lesions. Cancer Cytopathol 2017;125:692-700. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  16. Revisiting the False Confession Problem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alvarez-Toro, Viviana; Lopez-Morales, Cesar A

    2018-03-01

    Despite the existence of important safeguards in our criminal legal system, innocent suspects often succumb to forceful and deceptive interrogation techniques. Among those over-represented members of the false confessor population are minors, people with cognitive and intellectual disabilities, and those with psychiatric disorders. Some of the confessions made by these at-risk populations can hardly be considered voluntary or reliable, but they are generally admitted at trial, regardless of their prejudicial effect. Forensic psychiatrists should become more involved in the overall process of evaluating confessions, not only testifying in courts, but also assisting policymakers in reforming the interrogation process and influencing the legal process. Thus, forensic psychiatrists may give their expert opinion by providing proper training to police interrogators and examining videotaped interrogations. In addition, forensic experts can be instrumental in contributing to three legal solutions that we propose to the false confession problem: a constitutional approach, an evidence law approach, and a jury instruction approach. Each of these approaches requires forensic psychiatrists to help judges and jurors understand the coercive nature of the interrogation process and its effect on suspects' behavior. © 2018 American Academy of Psychiatry and the Law.

  17. Acute effects of triazolam on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mintzer, M Z; Griffiths, R R

    2000-12-01

    Neuropsychological, neuroimaging, and electrophysiological techniques have been applied to the study of false recognition; however, psychopharmacological techniques have not been applied. Benzodiazepine sedative/anxiolytic drugs produce memory deficits similar to those observed in organic amnesia and may be useful tools for studying normal and abnormal memory mechanisms. The present double-blind, placebo-controlled repeated measures study examined the acute effects of orally administered triazolam (Halcion; 0.125 and 0.25 mg/70 kg), a benzodiazepine hypnotic, on performance in the Deese (1959)/Roediger-McDermott (1995) false recognition paradigm in 24 healthy volunteers. Paralleling previous demonstrations in amnesic patients, triazolam produced significant dose-related reductions in false recognition rates to nonstudied words associatively related to studied words, suggesting that false recognition relies on normal memory mechanisms impaired in benzodiazepine-induced amnesia. The results also suggested that relative to placebo, triazolam reduced participants' reliance on memory for item-specific versus list-common semantic information and reduced participants' use of remember versus know responses.

  18. Underpowered samples, false negatives, and unconscious learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vadillo, Miguel A; Konstantinidis, Emmanouil; Shanks, David R

    2016-02-01

    The scientific community has witnessed growing concern about the high rate of false positives and unreliable results within the psychological literature, but the harmful impact of false negatives has been largely ignored. False negatives are particularly concerning in research areas where demonstrating the absence of an effect is crucial, such as studies of unconscious or implicit processing. Research on implicit processes seeks evidence of above-chance performance on some implicit behavioral measure at the same time as chance-level performance (that is, a null result) on an explicit measure of awareness. A systematic review of 73 studies of contextual cuing, a popular implicit learning paradigm, involving 181 statistical analyses of awareness tests, reveals how underpowered studies can lead to failure to reject a false null hypothesis. Among the studies that reported sufficient information, the meta-analytic effect size across awareness tests was d z = 0.31 (95 % CI 0.24-0.37), showing that participants' learning in these experiments was conscious. The unusually large number of positive results in this literature cannot be explained by selective publication. Instead, our analyses demonstrate that these tests are typically insensitive and underpowered to detect medium to small, but true, effects in awareness tests. These findings challenge a widespread and theoretically important claim about the extent of unconscious human cognition.

  19. No effect of stress on false recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beato, María Soledad; Cadavid, Sara; Pulido, Ramón F; Pinho, María Salomé

    2013-02-01

    The present study aimed to analyze the effect of acute stress on false recognition in the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. In this paradigm, lists of words associated with a non-presented critical lure are studied and, in a subsequent memory test, critical lures are often falsely remembered. In two experiments, participants were randomly assigned to either the stress group (Trier Social Stress Test) or the no-stress control group. Because we sought to control the level-of-processing at encoding, in Experiment 1, participants created a visual mental image for each presented word (deep encoding). In Experiment 2, participants performed a shallow encoding (to respond whether each word contained the letter "o"). The results indicated that, in both experiments, as predicted, heart rate and STAI-S scores increased only in the stress group. However, false recognition did not differ across stress and no-stress groups. Results suggest that, although psychosocial stress was successfully induced, it does not enhance the vulnerability of individuals with acute stress to DRM false recognition, regardless of the level of processing.

  20. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  1. Is the truth in the details? Extended narratives help distinguishing false "memories" from false "reports".

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sjödén, Björn; Granhag, Pär Anders; Ost, James; Roos Af Hjelmsäter, Emma

    2009-06-01

    The present study examined the effects of fantasy proneness on false "reports" and false "memories", of existent and non-existent footage of a public event. We predicted that highly fantasy prone individuals would be more likely to stand by their initial claim of having seen a film of the event than low fantasy prone participants when prompted for more details about their experiences. Eighty creative arts students and 80 other students were asked whether they had seen CCTV footage preceding the attack on Swedish foreign minister Anna Lindh up to, and including, non-existent footage of the actual moment of the attack. If affirmative, they were probed for extended narratives of what they claimed to have seen. Overall, 64% of participants provided a false "report" by answering yes to the initial question. Of these, 30% provided no explicit details of the attack, and a further 15% retracted their initial answer in their narratives. This left 19% of the sample who appeared to have false "memories" because they provided explicit details of the actual moment of the attack. Women scored higher than men and art students scored higher than other students on fantasy proneness, but there was no effect on levels of false reporting or false "memory". Memories were rated more vivid and clear for existent compared to non-existent aspects of the event. In sum, these data suggest a more complex relationship between memory distortions and fantasy proneness than previously observed.

  2. False alarm rates of liquid explosives detection systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dzhongova, E.; Anderson, D.; Ruiter, J. de; Novakovic, V.; Ruiz Oses, M.

    2017-01-01

    Restrictions on the carriage of liquids, aerosol, and gels (LAGs) by airline passengers have been in place since November 2006, following the discovery of a terrorist plot involving homemade liquid explosives to be used on transatlantic flights (Wikipedia, 2006). Restrictions on the carriage of LAGs

  3. Controlling the local false discovery rate in the adaptive Lasso

    KAUST Repository

    Sampson, J. N.; Chatterjee, N.; Carroll, R. J.; Muller, S.

    2013-01-01

    FDR. We compare the smoothing parameters chosen to achieve a specified lFDR and those chosen to achieve the oracle properties, as well as their resulting estimates for model coefficients, with both simulation and an example from a genetic study of prostate

  4. Constant False Alarm Rate (CFAR) Autotrend Evaluation Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-01

    represent a level of uncertainty in the performance analysis. The performance analysis produced the following Key Performance Indicators ( KPIs ) as...Identity KPI Key Performance Indicator MooN M-out-of-N MSPU Modernized Signal Processor Unit NFF No Fault Found PAT Parameter Allocation Table PD

  5. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  6. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  7. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  8. Development of False Memories in Bilingual Children and Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.; Gagnon, Nadine; Thouas, Lisa

    2008-01-01

    The effects of within- versus between-languages (English-French) study and test on rates of bilingual children's and adults' true and false memories were examined. Children aged 6 through 12 and university-aged adults participated in a standard Deese-Roediger-McDermott false memory task using free recall and recognition. Recall results showed…

  9. 19 CFR 111.32 - False information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 19 Customs Duties 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false False information. 111.32 Section 111.32 Customs... CUSTOMS BROKERS Duties and Responsibilities of Customs Brokers § 111.32 False information. A broker must... procure the giving of, any false or misleading information or testimony in any matter pending before the...

  10. Thrombosed false channel in acute aortic dissections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alerci, M.; Dore, R.; Kluzer, A.; Digiulio, G.; D'Andrea, F.; De Agostini, A.

    1987-01-01

    Three cases are reported of acute dissection with complete thrombosis of the false channel, which is a very uncommonevent in DeBakey's I and II type aortic dissections. The 3 patients entered hospital because of severe thoracic pain without any ECG sign of myocardial infarction. Emergency CT showed evidence of pericardial effusion suggesting hemopericardium, enlargement of the ascending aorta and a peripheral semilunar filling defect which caused a slight deformation of the true channel. On precontrast scans, only one case showed inward displacement of peripheral calcifications and high-density aortic wall. No tipical signs of aortic dissection were reported, expect in the first patient - where a double contrast filled lumen, separated by an intimal flap was seen. CT findings are individually discussed. It is emphasized that in all patients more than one CT sign was present at a time. The correct evaluation of these signs together with the clinacal data could lead to the right diagnosis of aortic dissection in spite of the lack of a f???

  11. Locality-sensitive Hashing without False Negatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pagh, Rasmus

    2016-01-01

    We consider a new construction of locality-sensitive hash functions for Hamming space that is covering in the sense that is it guaranteed to produce a collision for every pair of vectors within a given radius r. The construction is efficient in the sense that the expected number of hash collisions......(n)/k, where n is the number of points in the data set and k ∊ N, and differs from it by at most a factor ln(4) in the exponent for general values of cr. As a consequence, LSH-based similarity search in Hamming space can avoid the problem of false negatives at little or no cost in efficiency. Read More: http...... between vectors at distance cr, for a given c > 1, comes close to that of the best possible data independent LSH without the covering guarantee, namely, the seminal LSH construction of Indyk and Motwani (FOCS ′98). The efficiency of the new construction essentially matches their bound if cr = log...

  12. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  13. False belief understanding in Cantonese-speaking children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tardif, Twila; Wellman, Henry M; Cheung, Kar Man

    2004-11-01

    The present study investigates the performance of 96 Cantonese-speaking three- to five-year-old preschoolers on three false belief tasks - a deceptive object, a change of location, and an unexpected contents task encompassing a variety of task factors. Most importantly, the research examines the possibility that false belief performance depends on specific linguistic factors such as the type of verb used in the test question--an explicitly false vs. a neutral belief verb. Cantonese was chosen as particularly useful for examining this question because it explicitly codes belief status as either neutral (nam5) or false (ji5wai4), and because it offers additional linguistic and cultural contrasts to research conducted on false belief with children learning English and other Indo-European languages. As expected, a strong age effect was found, as well as a significant advantage for children who received the explicit false belief (ji5wai4) wording and for those who were asked to explain rather than predict the protagonist's actions. Interestingly, there was also a strong task difference with children performing better on the deceptive object task than on the other two false belief tasks. We argue that these results point both to universal trajectories in theory of mind development and to interesting, but localized, effects of language and culture on children's false belief understanding.

  14. Too Good to be False: Nonsignificant Results Revisited

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chris H. J. Hartgerink

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to its probabilistic nature, Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST is subject to decision errors. The concern for false positives has overshadowed the concern for false negatives in the recent debates in psychology. This might be unwarranted, since reported statistically nonsignificant findings may just be ‘too good to be false’. We examined evidence for false negatives in nonsignificant results in three different ways. We adapted the Fisher test to detect the presence of at least one false negative in a set of statistically nonsignificant results. Simulations show that the adapted Fisher method generally is a powerful method to detect false negatives. We examined evidence for false negatives in the psychology literature in three applications of the adapted Fisher method. These applications indicate that (i the observed effect size distribution of nonsignificant effects exceeds the expected distribution assuming a null-effect, and approximately two out of three (66.7% psychology articles reporting nonsignificant results contain evidence for at least one false negative, (ii nonsignificant results on gender effects contain evidence of true nonzero effects, and (iii the statistically nonsignificant replications from the Reproducibility Project Psychology (RPP do not warrant strong conclusions about the absence or presence of true zero effects underlying these nonsignificant results. We conclude that false negatives deserve more attention in the current debate on statistical practices in psychology. Potentially neglecting effects due to a lack of statistical power can lead to a waste of research resources and stifle the scientific discovery process.

  15. High confidence in falsely recognizing prototypical faces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sampaio, Cristina; Reinke, Victoria; Mathews, Jeffrey; Swart, Alexandra; Wallinger, Stephen

    2018-06-01

    We applied a metacognitive approach to investigate confidence in recognition of prototypical faces. Participants were presented with sets of faces constructed digitally as deviations from prototype/base faces. Participants were then tested with a simple recognition task (Experiment 1) or a multiple-choice task (Experiment 2) for old and new items plus new prototypes, and they showed a high rate of confident false alarms to the prototypes. Confidence and accuracy relationship in this face recognition paradigm was found to be positive for standard items but negative for the prototypes; thus, it was contingent on the nature of the items used. The data have implications for lineups that employ match-to-suspect strategies.

  16. Making up History: False Memories of Fake News Stories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Danielle C. Polage

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous research has shown that information that is repeated is more likely to be rated as true than information that has not been heard before. The current experiment examines whether familiarity with false news stories would increase rates of truthfulness and plausibility for these events. Further, the experiment tested whether false stories that were familiar would result in the creation of a false memory of having heard the story outside of the experiment. Participants were exposed to false new stories, each portrayed by the investigator as true news stories. After a five week delay, participants who had read the false experimental stories rated them as more truthful and more plausible than participants who had not been exposed to the stories. In addition, there was evidence of the creation of false memories for the source of the news story. Participants who had previously read about the stories were more likely to believe that they had heard the false stories from a source outside the experiment. These results suggest that repeating false claims will not only increase their believability but may also result in source monitoring errors.

  17. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  18. Researches with the 'Fertexpert' model concerning the relationships between the efficiency indexes of the fertilizers usage in optimal economic rates and the agrochemical indexes of the soil and expected yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budoi, G.; Berca, M.; Borlan, Z.; Gavriluta, I.; Soare, M.; Danuso, F.; Bireescu, L.

    1999-01-01

    The 'Fertexpert' model allows undertaking researches concerning the variation of efficiency indexes for fertilizers usage in the case of many crops depending on the content of available soil nutrients (the values of soil agrochemical indexes - IA) and on the expected yield, R s , when fertilization are applied in optimal economic rates, DOE. The physical efficiency indexes calculated and researched are the following: the total physical yield increase, SFR (kg/ha), the specific average yield increase, SSp (kg/kg N, P 2 O 5 or K 2 O), the specific consumption of active substance (a.s.) from fertilizer, CSp (kg a.s./1 kg average yield increase). The economic efficiency indexes computed are: the total profit, in monetary units/ha, the specific profit, in monetary units/l monetary unit spent with fertilization, PSp, and in monetary units/kg a.s., PSpsa. The model also allows the study of DOE variation depending on R s and IA. Starting from the made calculations, there can be drown up specific graphics that can then be used in practice and for research purposes to. Refs. 6 (author)

  19. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  20. False memory in aging resulting from self-referential processing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Nicole M; Gutchess, Angela H

    2013-11-01

    Referencing the self is known to enhance accurate memory, but less is known about how the strategy affects false memory, particularly for highly self-relevant information. Because older adults are more prone to false memories, we tested whether self-referencing increased false memories with age. In 2 studies, older and younger adults rated adjectives for self-descriptiveness and later completed a surprise recognition test comprised of words rated previously for self-descriptiveness and novel lure words. Lure words were subsequently rated for self-descriptiveness in order to assess the impact of self-relevance on false memory. Study 2 introduced commonness judgments as a control condition, such that participants completed a recognition test on adjectives rated for commonness in addition to adjectives in the self-descriptiveness condition. Across both studies, findings indicate an increased response bias to self-referencing that increased hit rates for both older and younger adults but also increased false alarms as information became more self-descriptive, particularly for older adults. Although the present study supports previous literature showing a boost in memory for self-referenced information, the increase in false alarms, especially in older adults, highlights the potential for memory errors, particularly for information that is strongly related to the self.

  1. E-commerce Review System to Detect False Reviews.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolhar, Manjur

    2017-08-15

    E-commerce sites have been doing profitable business since their induction in high-speed and secured networks. Moreover, they continue to influence consumers through various methods. One of the most effective methods is the e-commerce review rating system, in which consumers provide review ratings for the products used. However, almost all e-commerce review rating systems are unable to provide cumulative review ratings. Furthermore, review ratings are influenced by positive and negative malicious feedback ratings, collectively called false reviews. In this paper, we proposed an e-commerce review system framework developed using the cumulative sum method to detect and remove malicious review ratings.

  2. Attitude Importance and the False Consensus Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabrigar, Leandre R.; Krosnick, Jon A.

    1995-01-01

    Explores the possibility that importance may regulate the magnitude of the false consensus effect. Analysis revealed a strong false consensus effect but no reliable relation between its magnitude and attitude importance. Results contradict assumptions that the false consensus effect arises from attitudes that directly or indirectly influence…

  3. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  4. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  5. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  6. Anomalous vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, H.

    1986-01-01

    The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

  7. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  8. Lexical association and false memory for words in two cultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yuh-shiow; Chiang, Wen-Chi; Hung, Hsu-Ching

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between language experience and false memory produced by the DRM paradigm. The word lists used in Stadler, et al. (Memory & Cognition, 27, 494-500, 1999) were first translated into Chinese. False recall and false recognition for critical non-presented targets were then tested on a group of Chinese users. The average co-occurrence rate of the list word and the critical word was calculated based on two large Chinese corpuses. List-level analyses revealed that the correlation between the American and Taiwanese participants was significant only in false recognition. More importantly, the co-occurrence rate was significantly correlated with false recall and recognition of Taiwanese participants, and not of American participants. In addition, the backward association strength based on Nelson et al. (The University of South Florida word association, rhyme and word fragment norms, 1999) was significantly correlated with false recall of American participants and not of Taiwanese participants. Results are discussed in terms of the relationship between language experiences and lexical association in creating false memory for word lists.

  9. [Effects of false memories on the Concealed Information Test].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitsu, Wataru

    2012-10-01

    The effects of false memories on polygraph examinations with the Concealed Information Test (CIT) were investigated by using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, which allows participants to evoke false memories. Physiological responses to questions consisting of learned, lure, and unlearned items were measured and recorded. The results indicated that responses to lure questions showed critical responses to questions about learned items. These responses included repression of respiration, an increase in electrodermal activity, and a drop in heart rate. These results suggest that critical response patterns are generated in the peripheral nervous system by true and false memories.

  10. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  11. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  12. Combined roentgenoultrasonic diagnosis of false pancreatic cysts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dubrov, Eh.Ya.; Beresneva, Eh.A.; Chervonenkis, A.V.; Morozova, N.A.

    1986-01-01

    X-ray and ultrasound semiotics of false pancreatic cysts in 21 patients have been described. Such a study proves to be highly informative permitting early detection of false pancreatic cysts and observation of the stages of their formation and development of complications. The ultrasound method has advantages for the investigation of patients in early time of false cyst formation and provides an opportunity to detect formations of minimum sizes

  13. The spread of true and false news online.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vosoughi, Soroush; Roy, Deb; Aral, Sinan

    2018-03-09

    We investigated the differential diffusion of all of the verified true and false news stories distributed on Twitter from 2006 to 2017. The data comprise ~126,000 stories tweeted by ~3 million people more than 4.5 million times. We classified news as true or false using information from six independent fact-checking organizations that exhibited 95 to 98% agreement on the classifications. Falsehood diffused significantly farther, faster, deeper, and more broadly than the truth in all categories of information, and the effects were more pronounced for false political news than for false news about terrorism, natural disasters, science, urban legends, or financial information. We found that false news was more novel than true news, which suggests that people were more likely to share novel information. Whereas false stories inspired fear, disgust, and surprise in replies, true stories inspired anticipation, sadness, joy, and trust. Contrary to conventional wisdom, robots accelerated the spread of true and false news at the same rate, implying that false news spreads more than the truth because humans, not robots, are more likely to spread it. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  14. Emotions and false memories: valence or arousal?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corson, Yves; Verrier, Nadège

    2007-03-01

    The effects of mood on false memories have not been studied systematically until recently. Some results seem to indicate that negative mood may reduce false recall and thus suggest an influence of emotional valence on false memory. The present research tested the effects of both valence and arousal on recall and recognition and indicates that the effect is actually due to arousal. In fact, whether participants' mood is positive, negative, or neutral, false memories are significantly more frequent under conditions of high arousal than under conditions of low arousal.

  15. Behavior, Expectations and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jr, Murray; Rashotte, Lisa Slattery

    2010-01-01

    We predict effects of behavior patterns and status on performance expectations and group inequality using an integrated theory developed by Fisek, Berger and Norman (1991). We next test those predictions using new experimental techniques we developed to control behavior patterns as independent variables. In a 10-condition experiment, predictions…

  16. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...

  17. Is it wise to protect false targets?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2011-01-01

    The paper considers a system consisting of genuine elements and false targets that cannot be distinguished by the attacker's observation. The false targets can be destroyed with much less effort than the genuine elements. We show that even when an attacker cannot distinguish between the genuine elements and the false targets, in many cases it can enhance the attack efficiency using a double attack strategy in which it tries first to eliminate with minimal effort as many false targets as possible in the first attack and then distributes its entire remaining resource among all surviving targets in the second attack. The model for evaluating the system vulnerability in the double attack is suggested for a single genuine element, and multiple genuine elements configured in parallel or in series. This model assumes that in both attacks the attacking resource is distributed evenly among the attacked targets. The defender can optimize its limited resource distribution between deploying more false targets and protecting them better. The attacker can optimize its limited resource distribution between two attacks. The defense strategy is analyzed based on a two period minmax game. A numerical procedure is suggested that allows the defender to find the optimal resource distribution between deploying and protecting the false targets. The methodology of optimal attack and defense strategies analysis is demonstrated. It is shown that protecting the false targets may reduce the efficiency of the double attack strategy and make this strategy ineffective in situations with low contest intensity and few false targets. - Highlights: ► The efficiency of the double attack tactics against using false targets is analyzed. ► The role of the false target protection in system survivability enhancement is shown. ► The resource distribution between deploying more false targets and protecting them better is optimized. ► Both series and parallel systems are considered.

  18. Social influence and mental routes to the production of authentic false memories and inauthentic false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Michael F; Skowronski, John J

    2017-05-01

    Two studies assessed the extent to which people incorporated false facts provided by bogus others into their own recognition memory reports, and how these false memory reports were affected by: (a) truth of the information in others' summaries supporting the false facts, (b) motivation to process stories and summaries, (c) source credibility, and (d) ease of remembering original facts. False memory report frequency increased when false facts in a summary were supported by true information and varied inversely with the ease with which original facts could be remembered. Results from a measure probing participants' memory perceptions suggest that some false memories are authentic: People sometimes lack awareness of both the incorporation of false facts into their memory reports and where the false facts came from. However, many false memories are inauthentic: Despite reporting a false memory, people sometimes retain knowledge of the original stimulus and/or the origin of false facts. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  19. Can False Memories Prime Problem Solutions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.; Garner, Sarah R.; Dewhurst, Stephen A.; Ball, Linden J.

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has suggested that false memories can prime performance on related implicit and explicit memory tasks. The present research examined whether false memories can also be used to prime higher order cognitive processes, namely, insight-based problem solving. Participants were asked to solve a number of compound remote associate task…

  20. Explaining the Development of False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Holliday, Robyn; Marche, Tammy

    2002-01-01

    Reviews explanatory dimensions of children's false memory relevant to forensic practice: measurement, development, social factors, individual differences, varieties of memories and memory judgments, and varieties of procedures inducing false memories. Asserts that recent studies fail to use techniques that separate acquiescence from memory…

  1. New false color mapping for image fusion

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Toet, A.; Walraven, J.

    1996-01-01

    A pixel based colour mapping algorithm is presented that produces a fused false colour rendering of two gray level images representing different sensor modalities. The result-ing fused false colour images have a higher information content than each of the original images and retain sensor-specific

  2. The probability of the false vacuum decay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiselev, V.; Selivanov, K.

    1983-01-01

    The closed expession for the probability of the false vacuum decay in (1+1) dimensions is given. The probability of false vacuum decay is expessed as the product of exponential quasiclassical factor and a functional determinant of the given form. The method for calcutation of this determinant is developed and a complete answer for (1+1) dimensions is given

  3. Rapid induction of false memory for pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinstein, Yana; Shanks, David R

    2010-07-01

    Recognition of pictures is typically extremely accurate, and it is thus unclear whether the reconstructive nature of memory can yield substantial false recognition of highly individuated stimuli. A procedure for the rapid induction of false memories for distinctive colour photographs is proposed. Participants studied a set of object pictures followed by a list of words naming those objects, but embedded in the list were names of unseen objects. When subsequently shown full colour pictures of these unseen objects, participants consistently claimed that they had seen them, while discriminating with high accuracy between studied pictures and new pictures whose names did not appear in the misleading word list. These false memories can be reported with high confidence as well as the feeling of recollection. This new procedure allows the investigation of factors that influence false memory reports with ecologically valid stimuli and of the similarities and differences between true and false memories.

  4. Priming analogical reasoning with false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Garner, Sarah R; Threadgold, Emma; Ball, Linden J

    2015-08-01

    Like true memories, false memories are capable of priming answers to insight-based problems. Recent research has attempted to extend this paradigm to more advanced problem-solving tasks, including those involving verbal analogical reasoning. However, these experiments are constrained inasmuch as problem solutions could be generated via spreading activation mechanisms (much like false memories themselves) rather than using complex reasoning processes. In three experiments we examined false memory priming of complex analogical reasoning tasks in the absence of simple semantic associations. In Experiment 1, we demonstrated the robustness of false memory priming in analogical reasoning when backward associative strength among the problem terms was eliminated. In Experiments 2a and 2b, we extended these findings by demonstrating priming on newly created homonym analogies that can only be solved by inhibiting semantic associations within the analogy. Overall, the findings of the present experiments provide evidence that the efficacy of false memory priming extends to complex analogical reasoning problems.

  5. Geophysics Fatally Flawed by False Fundamental Philosophy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, L. S.

    2004-05-01

    For two centuries scientists have failed to realize Laplace's nebular hypothesis \\(1796\\) of Earth's creation is false. As a consequence, geophysicists today are misinterpreting and miscalculating many fundamental aspects of the Earth and Solar System. Why scientists have deluded themselves for so long is a mystery. The greatest error is the assumption Earth was created 4.6 billion years ago as a molten protoplanet in its present size, shape and composition. This assumption ignores daily accretion of more than 200 tons/day of meteorites and dust, plus unknown volumes of solar insolation that created coal beds and other biomass that increased Earth's mass and diameter over time! Although the volume added daily is minuscule compared with Earth's total mass, logic and simple addition mandates an increase in mass, diameter and gravity. Increased diameter from accretion is proved by Grand Canyon stratigraphy that shows a one kilometer increase in depth and planetary radius at a rate exceeding three meters \\(10 ft\\) per Ma from start of the Cambrian \\(540 Ma\\) to end of the Permian \\(245 Ma\\)-each layer deposited onto Earth's surface. This is unequivocal evidence of passive external growth by accretion, part of a dual growth and expansion process called "Accreation" \\(creation by accretion\\). Dynamic internal core expansion, the second stage of Accreation, did not commence until the protoplanet reached spherical shape at 500-600 km diameter. At that point, gravity-powered compressive heating initiated core melting and internal expansion. Expansion quickly surpassed the external accretion growth rate and produced surface volcanoes to relieve explosive internal tectonic pressure and transfer excess mass (magma)to the surface. Then, 200-250 Ma, expansion triggered Pangaea's breakup, first sundering Asia and Australia to form the Pacific Ocean, followed by North and South America to form the Atlantic Ocean, by the mechanism of midocean ridges, linear underwater

  6. Differentiating true and false schematic memories in older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Christina E; Dennis, Nancy A

    2018-02-06

    While schemas aid memory for schematically related information, the gist induced by the schema can also lead to high rates of false memories, especially in older adults. The neural mechanisms that support and differentiate true and false memories in aging are not well understood. The current study sought to clarify this, using a novel scene paradigm to investigate the role of schemas on true and false memories in older adults. Healthy older adults encoded schematic scenes (e.g., bathroom). At retrieval, participants were tested on their memory for both schematic and non-schematic targets and lures while fMRI data was collected. Results indicate that true memories were supported by the typical retrieval network, and activity in this network was greater for true than false memories. Schema specific retrieval was supported by mPFC, extending this common finding to aging. While no region differentiated false memories compared to correct rejections, results showed that individual differences in false memory rates were associated with variability in neural activity. The findings underscore the importance of elucidating the neural basis of cognition within older adults, as well as the specific contribution of individual differences to the neural basis of memory errors in aging. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  7. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  8. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  9. Expectations from the child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Atabek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transition from agricultural society to industry society, from industrial society to science society has taken place. In all these societies, expectations from children also vary. In the agricultural community, human labor is based on arm power. For this reason, expectation from children is to increase work power. Having more children is the basis for the expectations in this community to see that the boy is valuable because he has increased his work power. In the industrial society, the power of the arm changed its place with the machine power. The knowledgeable person is not a family grown-up but a foreman. Childhood was distinguished during this period. It has been investigated that the child has a separate development.  In the information society, communication and information has never been as fast as it is in this period.  The widespread use of the Internet, and the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter are in this period. In this society, families are panicked to prepare a future in their own heads for their children. Because the parents thought of their children, they decided about the child's life instead of the child making these decisions. This has had a negative impact on children's sense of autonomy and their ability to take responsibility. To change this, parents should train their children in auto control and develop children's impulse control skills. The children should be able to understand their emotions and make decisions by reasoning and reasoning.

  10. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  11. How does negative emotion cause false memories?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C J; Stein, L M; Silveira, R A; Rohenkohl, G; Reyna, V F

    2008-09-01

    Remembering negative events can stimulate high levels of false memory, relative to remembering neutral events. In experiments in which the emotional valence of encoded materials was manipulated with their arousal levels controlled, valence produced a continuum of memory falsification. Falsification was highest for negative materials, intermediate for neutral materials, and lowest for positive materials. Conjoint-recognition analysis produced a simple process-level explanation: As one progresses from positive to neutral to negative valence, false memory increases because (a) the perceived meaning resemblance between false and true items increases and (b) subjects are less able to use verbatim memories of true items to suppress errors.

  12. Current management of inguinal false aneurysms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Houlind, Kim; Jepsen, Jørn M; Saicu, Cristian

    2017-01-01

    False aneurysms are formed as a result of bleeding causing a hematoma to compress the surrounding tissue. The majority of false aneurysms presenting to the vascular surgeon are caused by iatrogenic injury to an artery. Although anastomotic failure occurs, a much higher number is caused by bleeding...... vessels. endovascular treatment with coils or covered stent grafts have proven useful in infected ilio-femoral false aneurysms. Open surgical repair may be the best treatment in the setting of imminent rupture, massive haematoma and skin necrosis. We present three patient cases treated with open surgery...

  13. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  14. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  15. Agreeing on expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Bentsen, Martin Juul

    Commitment and trust are often mentioned as important aspects of creating a perception of reliability between counterparts. In the context of university-industry collaborations (UICs), agreeing on ambitions and expectations are adamant to achieving outcomes that are equally valuable to all parties...... involved. Despite this, our initial probing indicated that such covenants rarely exist. As such, this paper draws on project management theory and proposes the possibility of structuring assessments of potential partners before university-industry collaborations are brought to life. Our analysis suggests...

  16. Mental Rotation in False Belief Understanding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Jiushu; Cheung, Him; Shen, Manqiong; Wang, Ruiming

    2018-05-01

    This study examines the spontaneous use of embodied egocentric transformation (EET) in understanding false beliefs in the minds of others. EET involves the participants mentally transforming or rotating themselves into the orientation of an agent when trying to adopt his or her visuospatial perspective. We argue that psychological perspective taking such as false belief reasoning may also involve EET because of what has been widely reported in the embodied cognition literature, showing that our processing of abstract, propositional information is often grounded in concrete bodily sensations which are not apparently linked to higher cognition. In Experiment 1, an agent placed a ball into one of two boxes and left. The ball then rolled out and moved either into the other box (new box) or back into the original one (old box). The participants were to decide from which box they themselves or the agent would try to recover the ball. Results showed that false belief performance was affected by increased orientation disparity between the participants and the agent, suggesting involvement of embodied transformation. In Experiment 2, false belief was similarly induced and the participants were to decide if the agent would try to recover the ball in one specific box. Orientation disparity was again found to affect false belief performance. The present results extend previous findings on EET in visuospatial perspective taking and suggest that false belief reasoning, which is a kind of psychological perspective taking, can also involve embodied rotation, consistent with the embodied cognition view. Copyright © 2018 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  17. False-vacuum decay in generalized extended inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Wang Yun; Kolb, E.W.; Chicago Univ., IL; Chicago Univ., IL; Vadas, S.L.

    1990-01-01

    We study false-vacuum decay in the context of generalized extended inflationary theories, and compute the bubble nucleation rates for these theories in the limit of G N →0. We find that the time dependence of the nucleation rate can be exponentially strong through the time dependence of the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field. This can have a pronounced effect on whether extended inflation can be succesfully implemented. (orig.)

  18. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  19. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  20. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  1. Intellectual factors in false memories of patients with schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Bi; Chen, Chuansheng; Loftus, Elizabeth F; Dong, Qi; Lin, Chongde; Li, Jun

    2018-07-01

    The current study explored the intellectual factors in false memories of 139 patients with schizophrenia, using a recognition task and an IQ test. The full-scale IQ score of the participants ranged from 57 to 144 (M = 100, SD = 14). The full IQ score had a negative correlation with false recognition in patients with schizophrenia, and positive correlations with high-confidence true recognition and discrimination rates. Further analyses with the subtests' scores revealed that false recognition was negatively correlated with scores of performance IQ (and one of its subtests: picture arrangement), whereas true recognition was positively correlated with scores of verbal IQ (and two of its subtests: information and digit span). High-IQ patients had less false recognition (overall or high-confidence false recognition), more high-confidence true recognition, and higher discrimination abilities than those with low IQ. These findings contribute to a better understanding of the cognitive mechanism in false memory of patients with schizophrenia, and are of practical relevance to the evaluation of memory reliability in patients with different intellectual levels. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Effects of depressive disorder on false memory for emotional information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Zai-Ting; Hua, Mau-Sun

    2009-01-01

    This study explored with a false memory paradigm whether (1) depressed patients revealed more false memories and (2) whether more negative false than positive false recognition existed in subjects with depressive disorders. Thirty-two patients suffering from a major depressive episode (DSM-IV criteria), and 30 age- and education-matched normal control subjects participated in this study. After the presentation of a list of positive, negative, and neutral association items in the learning phase, subjects were asked to give a yes/no response in the recognition phase. They were also asked to rate 81 recognition items with emotional valence scores. The results revealed more negative false memories in the clinical depression group than in the normal control group; however, we did not find more negative false memories than positive ones in patients. When compared with the normal group, a more conservative response criterion for positive items was evident in patient groups. It was also found that when compared with the normal group, the subjects in the depression group perceived the positive items as less positive. On the basis of present results, it is suggested that depressed subjects judged the emotional information with criteria different from normal individuals, and patients' emotional memory intensity is attenuated by their mood.

  3. False memories in social anxiety disorder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    PRISCILA DE CAMARGO PALMA

    Full Text Available Abstract Background False memories are memories of events that never occurred or that occurred, but not exactly as we recall. Events with emotional content are subject to false memories production similar to neutral events. However, individual differences, such as the level of maladjustment and emotional instability characteristics of Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD, may interfere in the production of false memories. Objectives This study aimed to assess the effect of emotion in memory performance for an event witnessed by participants with and without SAD. Methods Participants were 61 young adults with SAD and 76 without any symptoms of SAD who were randomly assigned to watch a story with or without emotional arousal. Participants answered a subjective scale of emotion about the story and a recognition memory test. Results Participants with SAD recovered more true memories and more false memories for the non-emotional version compared to the emotional version of the story. Overall, participants with SAD produced fewer false memories compared to those without SAD. Discussion This finding suggests that social anxiety may have a significant impact on emotional memory accuracy, which may assist in the development and improvement of techniques for therapeutic intervention.

  4. False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls ( p  false memories ( p  > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved.

  5. Remedies by competitors for false advertising.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, B D; Wilcox, D P

    1990-05-01

    Patients who are victimized as a consequence of false medical advertising are not the only ones who can sue for damages. Under section 43(a) of the Lanham Act, effective November 17, 1989, anyone "who believes that he or she is or is likely to be damaged" by deceptive advertising may bring a civil action for damages (1). Competing physicians may sue other physicians who falsely advertise that they possess unique skills and achieve better results than other physicians because they employ exclusive methods of treatment or claim that certain surgical procedures they perform in the office are absolutely safe and without risk or who advertise false professional credentials to lure patients. Voluntary informed consent excludes the use of deceit. Misrepresentation through advertising deprives a patient of the right to exercise an informed consent (2). A patient who relies on a doctor's false advertising in agreeing to a procedure that causes the patient injury may sue for malpractice even if the procedure was performed without negligence. False medical advertising also exposes the advertiser to litigation by competitors for unfair competition. This article is concerned with the remedy that may be available for instituting private litigation against physicians and other health care providers who engage in untruthful advertising.

  6. False Memories for Affective Information in Schizophrenia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fairfield, Beth; Altamura, Mario; Padalino, Flavia A.; Balzotti, Angela; Di Domenico, Alberto; Mammarella, Nicola

    2016-01-01

    Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, 24 patients and 24 healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative, or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls (p false memories (p > 0.05) resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e., neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes). Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved. PMID:27965600

  7. Customer experiences and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

  8. Intact suppression of increased false recognition in schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiss, Anthony P; Dodson, Chad S; Goff, Donald C; Schacter, Daniel L; Heckers, Stephan

    2002-09-01

    Recognition memory is impaired in patients with schizophrenia, as they rely largely on item familiarity, rather than conscious recollection, to make mnemonic decisions. False recognition of novel items (foils) is increased in schizophrenia and may relate to this deficit in conscious recollection. By studying pictures of the target word during encoding, healthy adults can suppress false recognition. This study examined the effect of pictorial encoding on subsequent recognition of repeated foils in patients with schizophrenia. The study included 40 patients with schizophrenia and 32 healthy comparison subjects. After incidental encoding of 60 words or pictures, subjects were tested for recognition of target items intermixed with 60 new foils. These new foils were subsequently repeated following either a two- or 24-word delay. Subjects were instructed to label these repeated foils as new and not to mistake them for old target words. Schizophrenic patients showed greater overall false recognition of repeated foils. The rate of false recognition of repeated foils was lower after picture encoding than after word encoding. Despite higher levels of false recognition of repeated new items, patients and comparison subjects demonstrated a similar degree of false recognition suppression after picture, as compared to word, encoding. Patients with schizophrenia displayed greater false recognition of repeated foils than comparison subjects, suggesting both a decrement of item- (or source-) specific recollection and a consequent reliance on familiarity in schizophrenia. Despite these deficits, presenting pictorial information at encoding allowed schizophrenic subjects to suppress false recognition to a similar degree as the comparison group, implying the intact use of a high-level cognitive strategy in this population.

  9. An investigation of false positive dosimetry results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewandowski, M.A.; Davis, S.A.; Goff, T.E.; Wu, C.F.

    1996-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is a facility designed for the demonstration of the safe disposal of transuranic waste. Currently, the radiation source term is confined to sealed calibration and check sources since WIPP has not received waste for disposal. For several years the WIPP Dosimetry Group has operated a Harshaw Model 8800C reader to analyze Harshaw 8801-7776 thermoluminescent cards (3 TLD-700 and 1 TLD-600) with 8805 holder. The frequency of false positive results for quarterly dosimeter exchanges is higher than desired by the Dosimetry Group management. Initial observations suggested that exposure to intense ambient sunlight may be responsible for the majority of the false positive readings for element 3. A study was designed to investigate the possibility of light leaking through the holder and inducing a signal in element 3. This paper discusses the methods and results obtained, with special emphasis placed on recommendations to reduce the frequency of light-induced false positive readings

  10. Aural, visual, and pictorial stimulus formats in false recall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beauchamp, Heather M

    2002-12-01

    The present investigation is an initial simultaneous examination of the influence of three stimulus formats on false memories. Several pilot tests were conducted to develop new category associate stimulus lists. 73 women and 26 men (M age=21.1 yr.) were in one of three conditions: they either heard words, were shown words, or were shown pictures highly related to critical nonpresented items. As expected, recall of critical nonpresented stimuli was significantly greater for aural lists than for visually presented words and pictorial images. These findings demonstrate that the accuracy of memory is influenced by the format of the information encoded.

  11. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  12. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  13. False iliac artery aneurysm following renal transplantation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Levi, N; Sønksen, Jens Otto Reimers; Schroeder, T V

    1999-01-01

    We report a very rare case of a false iliac artery aneurysm following renal transplantation. The patient was a 51-year-old women who presented with a painful 10 x 10 cm pulsating mass in her left iliac fossa. The patient had received a second cadaveric renal transplantation 5 years previously....... The graft never functioned and transplant nephrectomy was performed 2 weeks later. A CT-scanning showed a 10 x 10 cm large aneurysm arising from the left external iliac artery. At operation a large false aneurysm was identified arising from the original transplant anastomotic site. Due to the extent...

  14. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  15. False vacuum decay in Jordan-Brans-Dicke cosmologies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holman, R.; Wang, Yun; Weinberg, E.J.

    1989-12-01

    We examine the bubble nucleation rate in a first-order phase transition taking place in a background Jordan-Brans-Dicke cosmology. We compute the leading order terms in the nucleation rate when the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field is large (i.e., late times) by means of a Weyl rescaling of the fields in the theory. We find that despite the fact that the Jordan-Brans-Dicke field (hence the effective gravitational constant) has a time dependence in the false vacuum, at late times the nucleation rate is time independent. 21 refs

  16. Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, Robert; And Others

    This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

  17. False memories, but not false beliefs, affect implicit attitudes for food preferences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, David; Anderson, Rachel J; Dewhurst, Stephen A

    2017-09-01

    Previous studies have found that false memories and false beliefs of childhood experiences can have attitudinal consequences. Previous studies have, however, focused exclusively on explicit attitude measures without exploring whether implicit attitudes are similarly affected. Using a false feedback/imagination inflation paradigm, false memories and beliefs of enjoying a certain food as a child were elicited in participants, and their effects were assessed using both explicit attitude measures (self-report questionnaires) and implicit measures (a Single-Target Implicit Association Test). Positive changes in explicit attitudes were observed both in participants with false memories and participants with false beliefs. In contrast, only participants with false memories exhibited more positive implicit attitudes. The findings are discussed in terms of theories of explicit and implicit attitudes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Unique thermal record in False Bay

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Grundlingh, ML

    1993-10-01

    Full Text Available Over the past decade False Bay has assumed a prime position in terms of research in to large South African bays. This is manifested by investigations that cover flow conditions modelling, thermal structure, management, biology and nutrients, geology...

  19. Development of the False-Memory Illusion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C. J.; Forrest, T. J.; Karibian, D.; Reyna, V. F.

    2006-01-01

    The counterintuitive developmental trend in the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) illusion (that false-memory responses increase with age) was investigated in learning-disabled and nondisabled children from the 6- to 14-year-old age range. Fuzzy-trace theory predicts that because there are qualitative differences in how younger versus older children…

  20. False memories for affective information in Schizophrenia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth Fairfield

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Studies have shown a direct link between memory for emotionally salient experiences and false memories. In particular, emotionally arousing material of negative and positive valence enhanced reality monitoring compared to neutral material since emotional stimuli can be encoded with more contextual details and thereby facilitate the distinction between presented and imagined stimuli. Individuals with schizophrenia appear to be impaired in both reality monitoring and memory for emotional experiences. However, the relationship between the emotionality of the-to-be-remembered material and false memory occurrence has not yet been studied. In this study, twenty-four patients and twenty-four healthy adults completed a false memory task with everyday episodes composed of 12 photographs that depicted positive, negative or neutral outcomes. Results showed how patients with schizophrenia made a higher number of false memories than normal controls (p0.05 resulting from erroneous inferences but did interact with plausible, script consistent errors in patients (i.e. neutral episodes yielded a higher degree of errors than positive and negative episodes. Affective information reduces the probability of generating causal errors in healthy adults but not in patients suggesting that emotional memory impairments may contribute to deficits in reality monitoring in schizophrenia when affective information is involved.

  1. COMPARATIVE EFFICACY OF NEEM (Azadirachta indica), FALSE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    Abstract. A study to evaluate the insecticidal properties of some plants was undertaken. Powder and aqueous extracts of Neem, Azadirachta indica, False sesame, Ceratotheca sesamoides and the Physic nut, Jatropha curcas were evaluated as grain protectants against the cowpea seed beetle, Callosobruchus maculatus.

  2. Breast cancer screening: evidence for false reassurance?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. de Gelder (Rianne); E. As, van (Elisabeth); M.M.A. Tilanus-Linthorst (Madeleine); C.C.M. Bartels (Carina); R. Boer (Rob); G. Draisma (Gerrit); H.J. de Koning (Harry)

    2008-01-01

    textabstractTumour stage distribution at repeated mammography screening is, unexpectedly, often not more favourable than stage distribution at first screenings. False reassurance, i.e., delayed symptom presentation due to having participated in earlier screening rounds, might be associated with

  3. Mapping the Real and the False

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuever, Erika

    2014-01-01

    Purpose -- To show that Chinese consumers are constantly redefining and revaluing goods along the axes of the real and the false, with little regard for legal definitions of brand authenticity or “fakeness.” Findings -- In their everyday consumption practices and navigation of a complex and often...

  4. Distance Sensitive Bloom Filters Without False Negatives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goswami, Mayank; Pagh, Rasmus; Silvestri, Francesco

    2017-01-01

    A Bloom filter is a widely used data-structure for representing a set S and answering queries of the form “Is x in S?”. By allowing some false positive answers (saying ‘yes’ when the answer is in fact ‘no’) Bloom filters use space significantly below what is required for storing S. In the distanc...

  5. False elevation of carboxyhemoglobin: case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehrotra, Shruti; Edmonds, Marcia; Lim, Rodrick K

    2011-02-01

    Carbon monoxide toxicity in infants and children, like adults, produce nonspecific symptoms with normal vital signs necessitating the serum measurement of carboxyhemoglobin (COHb). In infants, the COHb may be falsely elevated. Our goal was to report a case of suspected carbon monoxide toxicity in an infant and the likely cause of the falsely elevated serum COHb. A previously healthy 3-month-old girl presented to the pediatric emergency department (ED) with smoke inhalation from a defective furnace. She was asymptomatic. On examination, she was alert, with Glasgow Coma Scale of 15 and normal vital signs. Cardiorespiratory and neurological examinations were completely normal. Because of concern regarding carbon monoxide poisoning, she was treated with normobaric oxygen therapy. Initial and subsequent serum COHb levels were persistently elevated, despite treatment and the infant appearing clinically well. As such, she had a prolonged stay in the ED. Further investigations found that fetal hemoglobin interferes with the spectrophotometric method used to analyze serum COHb levels. Carboxyhemoglobin serum level, in infants, may be falsely elevated due to the fetal hemoglobin interfering with standard methods of analysis. Knowledge of the false elevation using standard spectrophotometric methods of COHb in clinically well-appearing infants can decrease unnecessary oxygen therapy and monitoring time in the ED.

  6. A Synchronization Account of False Recognition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johns, Brendan T.; Jones, Michael N.; Mewhort, Douglas J. K.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a computational model to explain a variety of results in both standard and false recognition. A key attribute of the model is that it uses plausible semantic representations for words, built through exposure to a linguistic corpus. A study list is encoded in the model as a gist trace, similar to the proposal of fuzzy trace theory…

  7. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  8. False memories and memory confidence in borderline patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Lisa; Wingenfeld, Katja; Spitzer, Carsten; Nagel, Matthias; Moritz, Steffen

    2013-12-01

    Mixed results have been obtained regarding memory in patients with borderline personality disorder (BPD). Prior reports and anecdotal evidence suggests that patients with BPD are prone to false memories but this assumption has to been put to firm empirical test, yet. Memory accuracy and confidence was assessed in 20 BPD patients and 22 healthy controls using a visual variant of the false memory (Deese-Roediger-McDermott) paradigm which involved a negative and a positive-valenced picture. Groups did not differ regarding veridical item recognition. Importantly, patients did not display more false memories than controls. At trend level, borderline patients rated more items as new with high confidence compared to healthy controls. The results tentatively suggest that borderline patients show uncompromised visual memory functions and display no increased susceptibility for distorted memories. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Sample Size Calculation for Controlling False Discovery Proportion

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shulian Shang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The false discovery proportion (FDP, the proportion of incorrect rejections among all rejections, is a direct measure of abundance of false positive findings in multiple testing. Many methods have been proposed to control FDP, but they are too conservative to be useful for power analysis. Study designs for controlling the mean of FDP, which is false discovery rate, have been commonly used. However, there has been little attempt to design study with direct FDP control to achieve certain level of efficiency. We provide a sample size calculation method using the variance formula of the FDP under weak-dependence assumptions to achieve the desired overall power. The relationship between design parameters and sample size is explored. The adequacy of the procedure is assessed by simulation. We illustrate the method using estimated correlations from a prostate cancer dataset.

  10. Improving Universal Suicide Prevention Screening in Primary Care by Reducing False Negatives

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-01

    craig.bryan@utah.edu 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) University of Utah 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT...screening methods by reducing false negative rates; and (c) to systematically quantify false negative rates across various patient subgroups (e.g., gender ...c) to systematically quantify false negative rates across various patient subgroups (e.g., gender , race, age, deployment history, etc.) to identify

  11. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  12. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  13. False recognition of facial expressions of emotion: causes and implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Dols, José-Miguel; Carrera, Pilar; Barchard, Kimberly A; Gacitua, Marta

    2008-08-01

    This article examines the importance of semantic processes in the recognition of emotional expressions, through a series of three studies on false recognition. The first study found a high frequency of false recognition of prototypical expressions of emotion when participants viewed slides and video clips of nonprototypical fearful and happy expressions. The second study tested whether semantic processes caused false recognition. The authors found that participants made significantly higher error rates when asked to detect expressions that corresponded to semantic labels than when asked to detect visual stimuli. Finally, given that previous research reported that false memories are less prevalent in younger children, the third study tested whether false recognition of prototypical expressions increased with age. The authors found that 67% of eight- to nine-year-old children reported nonpresent prototypical expressions of fear in a fearful context, but only 40% of 6- to 7-year-old children did so. Taken together, these three studies demonstrate the importance of semantic processes in the detection and categorization of prototypical emotional expressions.

  14. Creating a false memory in the hippocampus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Steve; Liu, Xu; Lin, Pei-Ann; Suh, Junghyup; Pignatelli, Michele; Redondo, Roger L; Ryan, Tomás J; Tonegawa, Susumu

    2013-07-26

    Memories can be unreliable. We created a false memory in mice by optogenetically manipulating memory engram-bearing cells in the hippocampus. Dentate gyrus (DG) or CA1 neurons activated by exposure to a particular context were labeled with channelrhodopsin-2. These neurons were later optically reactivated during fear conditioning in a different context. The DG experimental group showed increased freezing in the original context, in which a foot shock was never delivered. The recall of this false memory was context-specific, activated similar downstream regions engaged during natural fear memory recall, and was also capable of driving an active fear response. Our data demonstrate that it is possible to generate an internally represented and behaviorally expressed fear memory via artificial means.

  15. Cosmic chirality both true and false.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barron, Laurence D

    2012-12-01

    The discrete symmetries of parity P, time reversal T, and charge conjugation C may be used to characterize the properties of chiral systems. It is well known that parity violation infiltrates into ordinary matter via an interaction between the nucleons and electrons, mediated by the Z(0) particle, that lifts the degeneracy of the mirror-image enantiomers of a chiral molecule. Being odd under P but even under T, this P-violating interaction exhibits true chirality and so may induce absolute enantioselection under all circumstances. It has been suggested that CP violation may also infiltrate into ordinary matter via a P-odd, T-odd interaction mediated by the (as yet undetected) axion. This CP-violating interaction exhibits false chirality and so may induce absolute enantioselection in processes far from equilibrium. Both true and false cosmic chirality should be considered together as possible sources of homochirality in the molecules of life. Copyright © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Underlying processes behind false perspective production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio L. Manzanero

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to determine the extent to which Reality Monitoring (RM content analysis can provide useful information when discriminating between actual versus false statements. Participants were instructed to either describe a traffic accident as eyewitness actual role or to describe the accident as a simulated victim. Data were analysed in terms of accuracy and quality, and were represented using high dimensional visualization (HDV. In Experiment 1 (between-participant design, participants made significantly more references to cognitive operations, more self-references and less changes in order when describing the event as simulated victim. In Experiment 2 (within-participants design participants also made significantly more references to cognitive operations and more self references when describing the event from the simulated victim as well as being less accurate, providing less irrelevant information and more evalúative comments. HDV graphics indicated that false statements differ holistically from actual ones.

  17. The problem with false vacuum Higgs inflation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairbairn, Malcolm; Grothaus, Philipp; Hogan, Robert

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the possibility of using the only known fundamental scalar, the Higgs, as an inflaton with minimal coupling to gravity. The peculiar appearance of a plateau or a false vacuum in the renormalised effective scalar potential suggests that the Higgs might drive inflation. For the case of a false vacuum we use an additional singlet scalar field, motivated by the strong CP problem, and its coupling to the Higgs to lift the barrier allowing for a graceful exit from inflation by mimicking hybrid inflation. We find that this scenario is incompatible with current measurements of the Higgs mass and the QCD coupling constant and conclude that the Higgs can only be the inflaton in more complicated scenarios

  18. False Context Fear Memory in Rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bae, Sarah; Holmes, Nathan M.; Westbrook, R. Frederick

    2015-01-01

    Four experiments used rats to study false context fear memories. In Experiment 1, rats were pre-exposed to a distinctive chamber (context A) or to a control environment (context C), shocked after a delay in a second chamber (context B) and tested either in B or A. Rats pre-exposed to A froze just as much as control rats in B but more than control…

  19. Detecting false intent using eye blink measures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Frank M Marchak

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Eye blink measures have been shown to be diagnostic in detecting deception regarding past acts. Here we examined – across two experiments with increasing degrees of ecological validity – whether changes in eye blinking can be used to determine false intent regarding future actions. In both experiments, half of the participants engaged in a mock crime and then transported an explosive device with the intent of delivering it to a ‘contact’ that would use it to cause a disturbance. Eye blinking was measured for all participants when presented with three types of questions: relevant to intent to transport an explosive device, relevant to intent to engage in an unrelated illegal act, and neutral questions. Experiment 1 involved standing participants watching a video interviewer with audio presented ambiently. Experiment 2 involved standing participants questioned by a live interviewer. Across both experiments, changes in blink count during and immediately following individual questions, total number of blinks, and maximum blink time length differentiated those with false intent from truthful intent participants. In response to questions relevant to intent to deliver an explosive device versus questions relevant to intent to deliver illegal drugs, those with false intent showed a suppression of blinking during the questions when compared to the ten second period after the end of the questions, a lower number of blinks, and shorter maximum blink duration. The results are discussed in relation to detecting deception about past activities as well as to the similarities and differences to detecting false intent as described by prospective memory and arousal.

  20. Constrained potential method for false vacuum decays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Jae-hyeon

    2010-11-01

    A procedure is reported for numerical analysis of false vacuum transition in a model with multiple scalar fields. It is a refined version of the approach by Konstandin and Huber. The alteration makes it possible to tackle a class of problems that was difficult or unsolvable with the original method, i.e. those with a distant or nonexistent true vacuum. An example with an unbounded-from-below direction is presented. (orig.)

  1. Expectations from implementers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biurrun, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2008-01-01

    Enrique Biurrun (DBE) presented the expectations from the implementer. He explained that the implementer needs a framework to successfully develop a repository which means the definition of requirements and guidance (for repository system development, analysis, licences, etc.) as well as the decision-making process (stepwise approach, roles of different players, etc.). He also needs a reasonable stability of the regulatory system. The regulatory framework should be developed in a clear, reasonable and consistent manner. In the context of the long duration of the project (100 years) there will be technological progress. In that context E. Biurrun asked what is the meaning of best practice. How can one deal with judgmental issues in a step-wise approach? Regulatory criteria and guidance must deal with the repository system for which an iterative process is necessary where dialogue is needed with the regulator despite the need to maintain his independence. The safety case, which is a periodic documentation of the status of the project, must provide a synthesis of the underlying scientific understanding and evidence and becomes part of the design process through feedback. E. Biurrun pointed out that safety is not calculated or assessed, but designed and built into the repository system (by geological and engineered barriers). He stressed the importance of the operational aspects since the implementer has to build and operate the repository safely. He asked the question: is it 'Ethical' to buy 'peace of mind' of some stakeholders with casualties of the implementer's staff because of mining accidents if the repository is left open during a phase of reversibility. The implementer needs dependable criteria, legal security and investment security. He interpreted the 'Precautionary principle' as meaning 'do it now'. Long-lasting solutions are very uncertain. Will we heave the money and the technology to do it later? He made some reflections regarding the ethical need to

  2. False confessions, expert testimony, and admissibility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Clarence; Weiss, Kenneth J; Pouncey, Claire

    2010-01-01

    The confession of a criminal defendant serves as a prosecutor's most compelling piece of evidence during trial. Courts must preserve a defendant's constitutional right to a fair trial while upholding the judicial interests of presenting competent and reliable evidence to the jury. When a defendant seeks to challenge the validity of that confession through expert testimony, the prosecution often contests the admissibility of the expert's opinion. Depending on the content and methodology of the expert's opinion, testimony addressing the phenomenon of false confessions may or may not be admissible. This article outlines the scientific and epistemological bases of expert testimony on false confession, notes the obstacles facing its admissibility, and provides guidance to the expert in formulating opinions that will reach the judge or jury. We review the 2006 New Jersey Superior Court decision in State of New Jersey v. George King to illustrate what is involved in the admissibility of false-confession testimony and use the case as a starting point in developing a best-practice approach to working in this area.

  3. On the susceptibility of adaptive memory to false memory illusions

    OpenAIRE

    Howe, M. L.; Derbish, M. H.

    2010-01-01

    Previous research has shown that survival-related processing of word lists enhances retention for that material. However, the claim that survival-related memories are more accurate has only been examined when true recall and recognition of neutral material has been measured. In the current experiments, we examined the adaptive memory superiority effect for different types of processing and material, measuring accuracy more directly by comparing true and false recollection rates. Survival-rela...

  4. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  5. Analysis of false positive and false negative cytological diagnosis of breast lesions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jamal, Awtif A.; Mansoor, I.

    2001-01-01

    To study the reasons for interpretive errors in false negative and false positive diagnosis of breast carcinoma on fine needle aspiration cytology material. We reviewed only those cases in which cytohistological discrepancies were found, where the cytologic material was abnormal and to some extent misinterpreted or both. There was only one false negative case (false negative fraction 0.32%) proved histologically as ductal carcinoma and four false positive cases (false positive fraction 1.2%); 2 fibroadenoma; 1 fibrocystic disease; and 1 stromal fibrosis. Smears of the two false positive fibroadenoma cases showed very high cellularity, overcrowded clusters and frequent stripped nuclei. The fibrocystic case showed tight clusters of apocrine cells and sheets of loosely aggregated macrophages that were over interpreted. Smears of the false negative ductal carcinoma was hypocellular overall, and the cells showed minimal nuclear pleomorphism. Overcrowded clusters and hypercellular smears should be carefully assessed for uniformity of cells and detailed nuclear and cytomorphological features. If the full-blown malignant cytomorphological changes are not visible, a diagnosis of suspicious or inconclusive should be made and frozen section recommended before surgery. Hypocellularity and relatively nuclear monomorphism are the reasons for failure to diagnose malignant breast lesions. Careful attention should be paid to extreme nuclear monomorphism and absence of naked bipolar cells. A cytologically atypical or suspicious diagnosis together with positive radiological and clinical findings should suggest a diagnosis of malignancy. (author)

  6. Filing false vice reports: Distinguishing true from false allegations of rape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Zutter, A.; Horselenberg, R.; van Koppen, P.J.

    2017-01-01

    False allegations constitute a problem since they may cause harm. To study the difference between true and false allegations we used a quasi-experimental approach. In the control condition likely true allegations were retrieved from criminal files. The victims, all female, were between the ages of

  7. Problems with False Vacua in Supersymmetric Theories

    CERN Document Server

    Bajc, Borut; Senjanovic, Goran

    2011-01-01

    It has been suggested recently that in a consistent theory any Minkowski vacuum must be exactly stable. As a result, a large class of theories that in ordinary treatment would appear sufficiently long-lived, in reality make no sense. In particular, this applies to supersymmetric models in which global supersymmetry is broken in a false vacuum. We show that in any such theory the dynamics of supersymmetry breaking cannot be decoupled from the Planck scale physics. This finding poses an obvious challenge for the idea of low-scale metastable (for example gauge) mediation.

  8. Shear-wave elastography in the diagnosis of solid breast masses: what leads to false-negative or false-positive results?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jung Hyun; Jung, Hae Kyoung; Lee, Jong Tae; Ko, Kyung Hee

    2013-09-01

    To investigate the factors that have an effect on false-positive or false-negative shear-wave elastography (SWE) results in solid breast masses. From June to December 2012, 222 breast lesions of 199 consecutive women (mean age: 45.3 ± 10.1 years; range, 21 to 88 years) who had been scheduled for biopsy or surgical excision were included. Greyscale ultrasound and SWE were performed in all women before biopsy. Final ultrasound assessments and SWE parameters (pattern classification and maximum elasticity) were recorded and compared with histopathology results. Patient and lesion factors in the 'true' and 'false' groups were compared. Of the 222 masses, 175 (78.8 %) were benign, and 47 (21.2 %) were malignant. False-positive rates of benign masses were significantly higher than false-negative rates of malignancy in SWE patterns, 36.6 % to 6.4 % (P masses, factors showing significance among false SWE features were lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth (all P breast masses had SWE images of good quality. False SWE features were more significantly seen in benign masses. Lesion size, breast thickness and lesion depth have significance in producing false results, and this needs consideration in SWE image acquisition. • Shear-wave elastography (SWE) is widely used during breast imaging • At SWE, false-positive rates were significantly higher than false-negative rates • Larger size, breast thickness, depth and fair quality influences false-positive SWE features • Smaller size, larger breast thickness and depth influences false-negative SWE features.

  9. Sleep deprivation increases formation of false memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, June C; Chong, Pearlynne L H; Ganesan, Shankari; Leong, Ruth L F; Chee, Michael W L

    2016-12-01

    Retrieving false information can have serious consequences. Sleep is important for memory, but voluntary sleep curtailment is becoming more rampant. Here, the misinformation paradigm was used to investigate false memory formation after 1 night of total sleep deprivation in healthy young adults (N = 58, mean age ± SD = 22.10 ± 1.60 years; 29 males), and 7 nights of partial sleep deprivation (5 h sleep opportunity) in these young adults and healthy adolescents (N = 54, mean age ± SD = 16.67 ± 1.03 years; 25 males). In both age groups, sleep-deprived individuals were more likely than well-rested persons to incorporate misleading post-event information into their responses during memory retrieval (P memory during sleep curtailment, and suggest the need to assess eyewitnesses' sleep history after encountering misleading information. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Sleep Research published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Sleep Research Society.

  10. Falsely elevated triiodothyronine values in radioimmunoassay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skovsted, L.; Moelholm Hansen, J.E.; Nygaard, B.

    1995-01-01

    Five patients with falsely elevated serum triiodothyronine (T 3 ) concentrations (>9 nmol/l) in a radioimmunoassay are reported. The high T 3 -values disagreed with the other thyroid variables investigated as well as with the clinical observations. In sera from all patients a normal non-specific binding of T 3 was found, thus excluding abnormal serum-protein-binding of the hormone. An ethanol extraction of T 3 from serum before RIA reduced the T 3 content in serum from all patients to normal levels (2.0-2.4 nmol/l). These findings indicate the presence in the sera of substances, probably of protein nature, that were interfering with the assay by binding the reagent-antibody and not the antigen. Addition of non-immune rabbit serum prevented this interference and normalized the T 3 -values (1.8-2.4 nmol/l). Thus the interfering substance in T 3 -RIA could be an anti-rabbit antibody, the interaction of which can be eliminated by a minor modification of the assay making it possible to differentiate true from false T 3 -values. (au) 16 refs

  11. Il nuovo reato di false comunicazioni sociali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Maria Corvucci

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The author examines the new offence of false social communication introduced by the Italian law dated 27 may 2015 n.69 in force from 14 June 2015. Considering the modifications added to the new offence of false accounting- basically explained to highlight the novum - the attention is paid on a specific major issue, previously discussed by the fifth section of the Italian Supreme Court competent in this matter after a few months from the moment the new law came in force. The questions applies to the fact whether the fraudulent evidence should remain to be punishable as the new discipline has limited the object of the criminal conduct only to “material relevant facts which are untrue” or to the omission of material relevant facts whose communication is imposed by the law regulating the economic situation, the assets and financial position of the company or of the group to which the company belongs. In this way any reference to the evaluations contained in the text previously in force is eliminated. Omissive conduct is the new definition recalling the two previous rules (art. 2621 and 2622 of the Italian civil code.

  12. The problem of false positives and false negatives in violent video game experiments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferguson, Christopher J

    The problem of false positives and negatives has received considerable attention in behavioral research in recent years. The current paper uses video game violence research as an example of how such issues may develop in a field. Despite decades of research, evidence on whether violent video games (VVGs) contribute to aggression in players has remained mixed. Concerns have been raised in recent years that experiments regarding VVGs may suffer from both "false positives" and "false negatives." The current paper examines this issue in three sets of video game experiments, two sets of video game experiments on aggression and prosocial behaviors identified in meta-analysis, and a third group of recent null studies. Results indicated that studies of VVGs and aggression appear to be particularly prone to false positive results. Studies of VVGs and prosocial behavior, by contrast are heterogeneous and did not demonstrate any indication of false positive results. However, their heterogeneous nature made it difficult to base solid conclusions on them. By contrast, evidence for false negatives in null studies was limited, and little evidence emerged that null studies lacked power in comparison those highlighted in past meta-analyses as evidence for effects. These results are considered in light of issues related to false positives and negatives in behavioral science more broadly. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. On the susceptibility of adaptive memory to false memory illusions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Derbish, Mary H

    2010-05-01

    Previous research has shown that survival-related processing of word lists enhances retention for that material. However, the claim that survival-related memories are more accurate has only been examined when true recall and recognition of neutral material has been measured. In the current experiments, we examined the adaptive memory superiority effect for different types of processing and material, measuring accuracy more directly by comparing true and false recollection rates. Survival-related information and processing was examined using word lists containing backward associates of neutral, negative, and survival-related critical lures and type of processing (pleasantness, moving, survival) was varied using an incidental memory paradigm. Across four experiments, results showed that survival-related words were more susceptible than negative and neutral words to the false memory illusion and that processing information in terms of its relevance to survival independently increased this susceptibility to the false memory illusion. Overall, although survival-related processing and survival-related information resulted in poorer, not more accurate, memory, such inaccuracies may have adaptive significance. These findings are discussed in the context of false memory research and recent theories concerning the importance of survival processing and the nature of adaptive memory. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. When are false-positive and false-negative 18F'FDG PET scans really false?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Binns, D.S.; Hicks, R.J.; Fawcett, M.E.

    1999-01-01

    Full text: A 61-year-old male presented with locally advanced squamous cell carcinoma of the base of tongue. In the absence of wider metastatic disease on conventional staging, he was enrolled in a phase I, dose escalation chemoradiotherapy trial. In this study, therapeutic response to radiotherapy combined with cisplatin and a chemotherapeutic agent which specifically targets hypoxic cells (tirapazamine) was evaluated with serial 18 F-FDG PET scans. Baseline 18 F-FDG PET confirmed locally advanced disease, although a previously undetected lower cervical lymph node was identified and included in the radiotherapy portal. Whole-body PET revealed a small metabolically active area adjacent to the right hemidiaphragm. Respiratory gated, high-resolution helical CT failed to find structural evidence of disease and, as a result, the patient was enrolled in the 7 week therapy regime on the assumption that the PET finding was a false-positive result. Repeat 18 F-FDG PET scans at the middle, end and 12 weeks post-treatment showed excellent therapeutic response in the head and neck which was discordant with clinical and CT findings, and resolution of the metabolically active chest lesion. Despite the negative PET scan, persistent clinical and CT evidence of a residual tumour mass suggested a false-negative result and resulted in a neck lymph node dissection. This showed no evidence of malignant cells. Five months following treatment, the patient presented with pleural effusion at the base on the right lung. Subsequent CT scanning showed a small pleural lesion at the site of initial 18 F-FDG uptake. Biopsy confirmed metastatic disease. The apparent transient resolution of 18 F-FDG uptake in the pleural lesion with treatment presumably reflected a combination of reduced metabolic activity and size due to the partial, but not complete, cytotoxic effects of cisplatin. In conclusion, this case emphasizes the importance of pathological review and clinical follow-up in reconciling

  15. False-positive results in mammographic screening for breast cancer in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofvind, Solveig; Ponti, Antonio; Patnick, Julietta

    2012-01-01

    To estimate the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening result in European mammographic screening programmes, and examine the rates and procedures of further assessment.......To estimate the cumulative risk of a false-positive screening result in European mammographic screening programmes, and examine the rates and procedures of further assessment....

  16. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  17. True or False Customer Engagement Behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haurum, Helle; Beckmann, Suzanne C.

    2014-01-01

    Customers’ engagement behaviours are considered an important source of value to the company. So far, the discussion has mainly been conceptual and focused on the company’s perspective. By adopting the customer’s perspective we investigated how customers perceive their service relationship...... encounters with a company, using in-depth interviews. We found the following key factors driving and explaining customers’ engagement behaviours: (1) transactions matter and inconsistent engagement behaviours are a reality, (2) mundane products and services are still highly relevant for customers, and (3......) different degrees of customer experience alignment with services and products exist. Moreover, the distinction between true and false engagement behaviours we suggest indeed is relevant and we could establish their mediating capabilities....

  18. False positive acetaminophen concentrations in icteric serum

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. de Jong

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Serum concentrations of acetaminophen are measured to predict the risk of hepatotoxicity in cases of acetaminophen overdose and to identify acetaminophen use in patients with acute liver injury without a known cause. The acetaminophen concentration determines if treatment with N-acetyl cysteine, the antidote for acetaminophen poisoning, is warranted. Description: A 49-year-old woman was admitted to our hospital with a hepatic encephalopathy and a total serum bilirubin concentration of 442 µmol/l. The acetaminophen concentration of 11.5 mg/l was measured with an enzymatic-colorimetric assay, thus treatment with N-acetyl cysteine was started. Interestingly, the acetaminophen concentration remained unchanged (11.5–12.3 mg/l during a period of 4 consecutive days. In contrast, the acetaminophen concentration measured by HPLC, a chromatographic technique, remained undetectable Discussion: In the presented case, elevated bilirubin was the most likely candidate to interfere with acetaminophen assay causing false positive results. Bilirubin has intense absorbance in the ultraviolet and visible regions of the electromagnetic spectrum and for that reason it causes interference in an enzymatic-colorimetric assay. Conclusion: False positive acetaminophen laboratory test results may be found in icteric serum, when enzymatic-colorimetric assays are used for determination of an acetaminophen concentration. Questionable acetaminophen results in icteric serum should be confirmed by a non-enzymatic method, by means of ultrafiltration of the serum, or by dilution studies. Keywords: Acetaminophen, Enzymatic-colorimetric assays, HPLC, Bilirubin, Interference, Paracetamol, Liver failure, Jaundice

  19. Coincidence of scintigraphic false positive and false negative findings in parathyroid and thyroid adenomas (case report)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mana, O.; Zatta, G.; Boccolari, S.; Barbesti, S.; Tarolo, G.L.

    1987-04-01

    The subtractive double tracer scintigraphy with /sup 201/Tl and /sup 99m/Tc is a useful technique in studying parathyroid nodules; nevertheless, this method can give misleading informations especially in presence of thyroid nodules with false positive and false negative findings. In this case report the technique was applied in studying a patient with three nodules (two thyroid adenomas and one parathyroid adenoma), where both scintigraphic and echographic methods provided misleading informations. The selective uptake of /sup 201/Tl in the upper region of the right thyroid lobe gave a false positive finding, while the increased uptake of /sup 99m/Tc in a hyperfunctioning thyroid adenoma of left lobe masked the parathyroid adenoma laying below, giving a false negative finding.

  20. False memory production :effects of self-consistent false information and motivated cognition

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Martha

    1996-01-01

    Remembrance of one's personal past and the development of false memories have recently received intense public scrutiny. Based upon self-schema (Markus, 1977) and selfverification (Swann, 1987) theories, two studies were conducted to investigate the hypothesis that a self-schema guides cognitive processing of self-relevant information and thereby influences the construction of a memory that includes false information, particularly more so if this information is self-schema consistent than ...

  1. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  2. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  3. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)

  4. Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fukač, Martin

    -, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

  5. Angular glint effects generation for false naval target verisimility requirements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostis, Theodoros G; Galanis, Konstantinos G; Katsikas, Sokratis K

    2009-01-01

    A stimulating problem in the generation of coherent countermeasures for high range resolution radar systems is the inclusion of angular glint effects in the preparation of the false target mask. Since angular glint is representative of extended naval targets, this inclusion increases the credibility factor of the decoy playback signal at the adversary radar-operator station. In this paper, the ability of an interferometric inverse synthetic aperture radar (InISAR) simulator to provide a proof of concept towards the clarification of this challenging task is ascertained. The solution consists of three novel vector representations of the generated data, which are proven to behave according to the laws of physics governing the glint phenomenon. The first depiction is the angular glint injection at the target which is followed by the representation of the wavefront distortion at the radar. A value-added time procession integration of the target in pure roll motion provides an expected by ISAR theory side-view image of the naval extended false target. The effectiveness of the proposed approach through verification and validation of the results by using the method of pictorial evidence is established. A final argument is raised on the usage of this software tool for actual obfuscation and deception actions for air defence at sea applications

  6. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  7. Avoiding the False Peaks in Correlation Discrimination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Awwal, A.S.

    2009-01-01

    Fiducials imprinted on laser beams are used to perform video image based alignment of the 192 laser beams in the National Ignition Facility (NIF) of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. In many video images, matched filtering is used to detect the location of these fiducials. Generally, the highest correlation peak is used to determine the position of the fiducials. However, when the signal to-be-detected is very weak compared to the noise, this approach totally breaks down. The highest peaks act as traps for false detection. The active target images used for automatic alignment in the National Ignition Facility are examples of such images. In these images, the fiducials of interest exhibit extremely low intensity and contrast, surrounded by high intensity reflection from metallic objects. Consequently, the highest correlation peaks are caused by these bright objects. In this work, we show how the shape of the correlation is exploited to isolate the valid matches from hundreds of invalid correlation peaks, and therefore identify extremely faint fiducials under very challenging imaging conditions

  8. False targets vs. redundancy in homogeneous parallel systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2009-01-01

    System defense against natural threats and disasters that have a stochastic nature includes providing redundancy and protecting system elements. The defense against strategic intentional attacks can also include deploying false targets aimed at misleading the attacker. Distribution of the available resources among different defensive means is an important problem that arises in organizing the defense of complex civil infrastructures, industrial systems or military objects. The article considers defense resource allocation in a system exposed to external intentional attack. The expected damage caused by the attack is evaluated as system unsupplied demand. The defender distributes its limited resource between deploying redundant genuine elements and false elements, both of which are targets of attack. The attacker attacks a subset of the elements and distributes its limited resource evenly among the attacked elements. Two cases are considered: in the first one the number of attacked elements and the vulnerability of each genuine element are fixed and the defense resource distribution is determined as a solution of an optimization problem; in the second one the number of attacked elements is the attacker's free choice variable and the element's vulnerability depends on a contest determined by the defender's and attacker's resources allocated to each element. The defender's optimal resource distribution strategy is determined as a solution of a two-period minmax game. It is shown that the optimal number of genuine elements decreases monotonically with the growth of the element cost and vulnerability, whereas the optimal number of false elements demonstrates non-monotonic behavior. The contest intensity is an important factor influencing the optimal defense resource distribution. It cannot be ignored when the defense strategy is determined, and it thus also impacts the attack strategy

  9. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  10. With sadness comes accuracy; with happiness, false memory: mood and the false memory effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L

    2005-10-01

    The Deese-Roediger-McDermott paradigm lures people to produce false memories. Two experiments examined whether induced positive or negative moods would influence this false memory effect. The affect-as-information hypothesis predicts that, on the one hand, positive affective cues experienced as task-relevant feedback encourage relational processing during encoding, which should enhance false memory effects. On the other hand, negative affective cues are hypothesized to encourage item-specific processing at encoding, which should discourage such effects. The results of Experiment 1 are consistent with these predictions: Individuals in negative moods were significantly less likely to show false memory effects than those in positive moods or those whose mood was not manipulated. Experiment 2 introduced inclusion instructions to investigate whether moods had their effects at encoding or retrieval. The results replicated the false memory finding of Experiment 1 and provide evidence that moods influence the accessibility of lures at encoding, rather than influencing monitoring at retrieval of whether lures were actually presented.

  11. Blind sequential lineup administration reduces both false identifications and confidence in those false identifications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charman, Steve D; Quiroz, Vanessa

    2016-10-01

    One of the most recommended procedures proposed by eyewitness experts is the use of double-blind lineups, in which the administrator does not know the identity of the suspect in the lineup. But despite the near universality of this recommendation, there is surprisingly little empirical research to support the claim that nonblind administration inflates false identifications. What little research has been conducted has shown conflicting findings with regard to the conditions under which nonblind administration affects false identifications, as well as its effects on witness confidence. The current study attempts to elucidate this effect. Student-participants (n = 312) were randomly assigned to play the role of either a lineup administrator (who were either told the identity of the suspect in the lineup or not) or a mock crime witness. Following unbiased instructions, administrators presented either a target-present or target-absent sequential lineup to the witness while being surreptitiously videorecorded. Nonblind administration significantly inflated false, but not correct, identifications, and significantly inflated witness confidence in those false identifications. Video recordings indicated that nonblind administrators were significantly more likely than blind administrators to smile (a) while the witness was viewing a photograph of the suspect, and (b) after a suspect identification. Results provide stronger support for the use of blind lineup administration by broadening the conditions under which nonblind administration is shown to inflate false identifications. Possible reconciliations for conflicting findings in the literature are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  12. False positive and false negative FDG-PET scans in various thoracic diseases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang, Jung Min; Lee, Hyun Ju; Goo, Jin Mo; Lee, Ho Young; Lee, Jong Jin; Chung, June Key; Im, Jung Gi

    2006-01-01

    Fluorodeoxygucose (FDG)-positron emission tomography (PET) is being used more and more to differentiate benign form malignant focal lesions and it has been shown to be more efficacious than conventional chest computed tomography (CT). However, FDG is not a cancer-specific agent, and false positive findings in benign diseases have been reported. Infectious diseases (mycobacterial, fungal, bacterial infection), sarcoidosis, radiation pneumonitis and post-operative surgical conditions have shown intense uptake on PET scan. On the other hand, tumors with low glycolytic activity such as adenomas, bronchioloalveolar carcinomas, carcinoid tumors, low grade lymphomas and small sized tumors have revealed false negative findings on PET scan, Furthermore, in diseases located near the physiologic uptake sites (heart, bladder, kidney, and liver), FDG-PET should be complemented with other imaging modalities to confirm results and to minimize false negative findings. Familiarity with these false positive and negative findings will help radiologists interpret PET scans more accurately and also will help to determine the significance of the findings. In this review, we illustrate false positive and negative findings of PET scan in a variety of diseases

  13. Spirit View of 'Wishstone' (False Color)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Figure 1 Scientists working with NASA's Mars Exploration Rover Spirit decided to examine this rock, dubbed 'Wishstone,' based on data from the miniature thermal emission spectrometer. That instrument's data indicated that the mineralogy of the rocks in this area is different from that of rocks encountered either on the plains of Gusev Crater or in bedrock outcrops examined so far in the 'Columbia Hills' inside the crater. Spirit used its rock abrasion tool first to scour a patch of the rock's surface with a wire brush, then to grind away the surface to reveal interior material. Placement of the rover's alpha particle X-ray spectrometer on the exposed circle of interior material revealed that the rock is rich in phosphorus. Spirit used its panoramic camera during the rover's 342nd martian day, or sol, (Dec. 18, 2004) to take the three individual images that were combined to produce this false-color view emphasizing the freshly ground dust around the hole cut by the rock abrasion tool. Unusually Rich in Phosophorus The graph in figure 1 compares the elemental makeup of a rock dubbed 'Wishstone' with the average composition of rocks that Spirit examined on the western spur of the 'Columbia Hills.' Wishstone lies farther into the hills than that spur. It is richer in phosphorus than any other Mars rock ever examined. Scientists plan to examine other rocks near Wishstone to help explain the significance of the high phosphorus concentration. The vertical scale is the ratio of the concentration of an element in the hills rocks to the concentration of the same element in a typical volcanic rock from the plains that Spirit crossed to reach the hills.

  14. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  15. Neural Network Target Identification System for False Alarm Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, David; Edens, Weston; Lu, Thomas T.; Chao, Tien-Hsin

    2009-01-01

    A multi-stage automated target recognition (ATR) system has been designed to perform computer vision tasks with adequate proficiency in mimicking human vision. The system is able to detect, identify, and track targets of interest. Potential regions of interest (ROIs) are first identified by the detection stage using an Optimum Trade-off Maximum Average Correlation Height (OT-MACH) filter combined with a wavelet transform. False positives are then eliminated by the verification stage using feature extraction methods in conjunction with neural networks. Feature extraction transforms the ROIs using filtering and binning algorithms to create feature vectors. A feed forward back propagation neural network (NN) is then trained to classify each feature vector and remove false positives. This paper discusses the test of the system performance and parameter optimizations process which adapts the system to various targets and datasets. The test results show that the system was successful in substantially reducing the false positive rate when tested on a sonar image dataset.

  16. Expectation-based intelligent control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2006-01-01

    New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

  17. False Color Image of Volcano Sapas Mons

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    This false-color image shows the volcano Sapas Mons, which is located in the broad equatorial rise called Atla Regio (8 degrees north latitude and 188 degrees east longitude). The area shown is approximately 650 kilometers (404 miles) on a side. Sapas Mons measures about 400 kilometers (248 miles) across and 1.5 kilometers (0.9 mile) high. Its flanks show numerous overlapping lava flows. The dark flows on the lower right are thought to be smoother than the brighter ones near the central part of the volcano. Many of the flows appear to have been erupted along the flanks of the volcano rather than from the summit. This type of flank eruption is common on large volcanoes on Earth, such as the Hawaiian volcanoes. The summit area has two flat-topped mesas, whose smooth tops give a relatively dark appearance in the radar image. Also seen near the summit are groups of pits, some as large as one kilometer (0.6 mile) across. These are thought to have formed when underground chambers of magma were drained through other subsurface tubes and lead to a collapse at the surface. A 20 kilometer-diameter (12-mile diameter) impact crater northeast of the volcano is partially buried by the lava flows. Little was known about Atla Regio prior to Magellan. The new data, acquired in February 1991, show the region to be composed of at least five large volcanoes such as Sapas Mons, which are commonly linked by complex systems of fractures or rift zones. If comparable to similar features on Earth, Atla Regio probably formed when large volumes of molten rock upwelled from areas within the interior of Venus known as'hot spots.' Magellan is a NASA spacecraft mission to map the surface of Venus with imaging radar. The basic scientific instrument is a synthetic aperture radar, or SAR, which can look through the thick clouds perpetually shielding the surface of Venus. Magellan is in orbit around Venus which completes one turn around its axis in 243 Earth days. That period of time, one Venus day

  18. Detecting false positive sequence homology: a machine learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fujimoto, M Stanley; Suvorov, Anton; Jensen, Nicholas O; Clement, Mark J; Bybee, Seth M

    2016-02-24

    Accurate detection of homologous relationships of biological sequences (DNA or amino acid) amongst organisms is an important and often difficult task that is essential to various evolutionary studies, ranging from building phylogenies to predicting functional gene annotations. There are many existing heuristic tools, most commonly based on bidirectional BLAST searches that are used to identify homologous genes and combine them into two fundamentally distinct classes: orthologs and paralogs. Due to only using heuristic filtering based on significance score cutoffs and having no cluster post-processing tools available, these methods can often produce multiple clusters constituting unrelated (non-homologous) sequences. Therefore sequencing data extracted from incomplete genome/transcriptome assemblies originated from low coverage sequencing or produced by de novo processes without a reference genome are susceptible to high false positive rates of homology detection. In this paper we develop biologically informative features that can be extracted from multiple sequence alignments of putative homologous genes (orthologs and paralogs) and further utilized in context of guided experimentation to verify false positive outcomes. We demonstrate that our machine learning method trained on both known homology clusters obtained from OrthoDB and randomly generated sequence alignments (non-homologs), successfully determines apparent false positives inferred by heuristic algorithms especially among proteomes recovered from low-coverage RNA-seq data. Almost ~42 % and ~25 % of predicted putative homologies by InParanoid and HaMStR respectively were classified as false positives on experimental data set. Our process increases the quality of output from other clustering algorithms by providing a novel post-processing method that is both fast and efficient at removing low quality clusters of putative homologous genes recovered by heuristic-based approaches.

  19. The False Premises and False Promises of the Movement to Privatize Public Education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawley, Willis D.

    1995-01-01

    Argues that the movement to provide parents with financial incentives to send students to private schools will increase the racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic homogeneity of American schools. Six common assumptions about the positive effects of privatizing education are examined and deemed false. Probable costs of tuition vouchers for private…

  20. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  1. The robustness of false memory for emotional pictures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette-Symons, Brandy A

    2018-02-01

    Emotional material is commonly reported to be more accurately recognised; however, there is substantial evidence of increased false alarm rates (FAR) for emotional material and several reports of stronger influences on response bias than accuracy. This pattern is more frequently reported for words than pictures. Research on the mechanisms underlying bias differences has mostly focused on word lists under short retention intervals. This article presents four series of experiments examining recognition memory for emotional pictures while varying arousal and the control over the content of the pictures at two retention intervals, and one study measuring the relatedness of the series picture sets. Under the shorter retention interval, emotion increased false alarms and reduced accuracy. Under the longer retention interval emotion increased hit rates and FAR, resulting in reduced accuracy and/or bias. At both retention intervals, the pattern of valence effects differed based on the arousal associated with the picture sets. Emotional pictures were found to be more related than neutral pictures in each set; however, the influence of relatedness alone does not provide an adequate explanation for all emotional differences. The results demonstrate substantial emotional differences in picture recognition that vary based on valence, arousal and retention interval.

  2. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  3. Patient characteristics associated with false arrhythmia alarms in intensive care

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harris PR

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Patricia R Harris,1,2 Jessica K Zègre-Hemsey,3,4 Daniel Schindler,5 Yong Bai,6 Michele M Pelter,2,7 Xiao Hu2,8 1Department of Nursing, School of Health and Natural Sciences, Dominican University of California, San Rafael, 2Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, CA, 3School of Nursing, 4Department of Emergency Medicine, School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, NC, 5Intensive Care Unit, The Neuroscience Center, Sutter Eden Medical Center, Castro Valley, 6Hu Research Laboratory, Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, University of California, San Francisco, 7ECG Monitoring Research Lab, Department of Physiological Nursing, School of Nursing, 8Physiological Nursing and Neurological Surgery, Affiliate Faculty of Institute for Computational Health Sciences Core Faculty UCB/UCSF Joint Bio-Engineering Graduate Program, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA Introduction: A high rate of false arrhythmia alarms in the intensive care unit (ICU leads to alarm fatigue, the condition of desensitization and potentially inappropriate silencing of alarms due to frequent invalid and nonactionable alarms, often referred to as false alarms. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify patient characteristics, such as gender, age, body mass index, and diagnosis associated with frequent false arrhythmia alarms in the ICU. Methods: This descriptive, observational study prospectively enrolled patients who were consecutively admitted to one of five adult ICUs (77 beds at an urban medical center over a period of 31 days in 2013. All monitor alarms and continuous waveforms were stored on a secure server. Nurse scientists with expertise in cardiac monitoring used a standardized protocol to annotate six clinically important types of arrhythmia alarms (asystole, pause, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia, accelerated ventricular rhythm, and

  4. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  5. Generating false negatives and false positives for As and Mo concentrations in groundwater due to well installation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallis, Ilka; Pichler, Thomas

    2018-08-01

    Groundwater monitoring relies on the acquisition of 'representative' groundwater samples, which should reflect the ambient water quality at a given location. However, drilling of a monitoring well for sample acquisition has the potential to perturb groundwater conditions to a point that may prove to be detrimental to the monitoring objective. Following installation of 20 monitoring wells in close geographic proximity in central Florida, opposing concentration trends for As and Mo were observed. In the first year after well installation As and Mo concentrations increased in some wells by a factor of 2, while in others As and Mo concentrations decreased by a factor of up to 100. Given this relatively short period of time, a natural change in groundwater composition of such magnitude is not expected, leaving well installation itself as the likely cause for the observed concentration changes. Hence, initial concentrations were identified as 'false negatives' if concentrations increased with time or as 'false positives' if concentrations decreased. False negatives were observed if concentrations were already high, i.e., the As or Mo were present at the time of drilling. False positives were observed if concentrations were relatively lower, i.e., As or Mo were present at low concentrations of approximately 1 to 2μg/L before drilling, but then released from the aquifer matrix as a result of drilling. Generally, As and Mo were present in the aquifer matrix in either pyrite or organic matter, both of which are susceptible to dissolution if redox conditions change due to the addition of oxygen. Thus, introduction of an oxidant into an anoxic aquifer through use of an oxygen saturated drilling fluid served as the conceptual model for the trends where concentrations decreased with time. Mixing between drilling fluid and groundwater (i.e., dilution) was used as the conceptual model for scenarios where increasing trends were observed. Conceptual models were successfully tested

  6. Dialysis centers - what to expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kidneys - dialysis centers; Dialysis - what to expect; Renal replacement therapy - dialysis centers; End-stage renal disease - dialysis ... to a tube that connects to the dialysis machine. Your blood will flow through the tube, into ...

  7. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

  8. FastStats: Life Expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button NCHS Home ... expectancy at birth, at 65, and 75 years of age by sex, race and Hispanic origin Health, United States 2016, table 15 [PDF – 9.8 MB] Life ...

  9. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  10. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  11. Subjective expected utility without preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Bouyssou , Denis; Marchant , Thierry

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a theory of subjective expected utility based on primitives only involving the fact that an act can be judged either "attractive" or "unattractive". We give conditions implying that there are a utility function on the set of consequences and a probability distribution on the set of states such that attractive acts have a subjective expected utility above some threshold. The numerical representation that is obtained has strong uniqueness properties.

  12. False memory ≠ false memory: DRM errors are unrelated to the misinformation effect.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Ost

    Full Text Available The DRM method has proved to be a popular and powerful, if controversial, way to study 'false memories'. One reason for the controversy is that the extent to which the DRM effect generalises to other kinds of memory error has been neither satisfactorily established nor subject to much empirical attention. In the present paper we contribute data to this ongoing debate. One hundred and twenty participants took part in a standard misinformation effect experiment, in which they watched some CCTV footage, were exposed to misleading post-event information about events depicted in the footage, and then completed free recall and recognition tests. Participants also completed a DRM test as an ostensibly unrelated filler task. Despite obtaining robust misinformation and DRM effects, there were no correlations between a broad range of misinformation and DRM effect measures (mean r  = -.01. This was not due to reliability issues with our measures or a lack of power. Thus DRM 'false memories' and misinformation effect 'false memories' do not appear to be equivalent.

  13. When representations conflict with reality: the preschooler's problem with false beliefs and "false" photographs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaitchik, D

    1990-04-01

    It has been argued that young preschoolers cannot correctly attribute a false belief to a deceived actor (Wimmer & Perner, 1983). Some researchers claim that the problem lies in the child's inadequate epistemology (Chandler & Boyes, 1982; Wellman, 1988); as such, it is specific to the child's theory of mind and no such problem should appear in reasoning about nonmental representations. This prediction is tested below in the "false photograph" task: here an actor takes a photograph of an object in location X; the object is then moved to location Y. Preschool subjects are asked: "In the picture, where is the object?" Results indicate that photographs are no easier to reason about than are beliefs. Manipulations to boost performance on the photograph task proved ineffective. Further, an explanation of the failure as a processing limitation having nothing to do with the representational nature of beliefs or photographs was ruled out. It is argued that young children's failure on the false belief task is not due to an inadequate epistemology (though they may have one) and is symptomatic of a larger problem with representations.

  14. 'False-positive' and 'false-negative' test results in clinical urine drug testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reisfield, Gary M; Goldberger, Bruce A; Bertholf, Roger L

    2009-08-01

    The terms 'false-positive' and 'false-negative' are widely used in discussions of urine drug test (UDT) results. These terms are inadequate because they are used in different ways by physicians and laboratory professionals and they are too narrow to encompass the larger universe of potentially misleading, inappropriate and unexpected drug test results. This larger universe, while not solely comprised of technically 'true' or 'false' positive or negative test results, presents comparable interpretive challenges with corresponding clinical implications. In this review, we propose the terms 'potentially inappropriate' positive or negative test results in reference to UDT results that are ambiguous or unexpected and subject to misinterpretation. Causes of potentially inappropriate positive UDT results include in vivo metabolic conversions of a drug, exposure to nonillicit sources of a drug and laboratory error. Causes of potentially inappropriate negative UDT results include limited assay specificity, absence of drug in the urine, presence of drug in the urine, but below established assay cutoff, specimen manipulation and laboratory error. Clinical UDT interpretation is a complicated task requiring knowledge of recent prescription, over-the-counter and herbal drug administration, drug metabolism and analytical sensitivities and specificities.

  15. Veridical and False Pictorial Memory in Individuals with and without Mental Retardation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlin, Michael T.; Toglia, Michael P.; Wakeford, Yvonne; Jakway, Allison; Sullivan, Kate; Hasel, Lisa

    2008-01-01

    Veridical and false pictorial recognition were assessed in individuals with mental retardation; groups were matched for MA and CA. Pictures were viewed in either a generative or static format at acquisition. The individuals with mental retardation and those in the MA-matched group had higher rates of false memories for critical items and lower hit…

  16. Processes Underlying Developmental Reversals in False-Memory Formation: Comment on Brainerd, Reyna, and Ceci (2008)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghetti, Simona

    2008-01-01

    C. J. Brainerd, V. F. Reyna, and S. J. Ceci (2008) reviewed compelling evidence of developmental reversals in false-memory formation (i.e., younger children exhibit lower false-memory rates than do older children and adults) and proposed that this phenomenon depends on the development of gist processing (i.e., the ability to identify and process…

  17. Addressing False Positives in Early Reading Assessment Using Intervention Response Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAlenney, Athena Lentini; Coyne, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    The current study examined a solution to high false positive reading risk classification rates in early kindergarten by investigating a method of identifying students with possible false positive risk classifications and returning them to general classroom instruction. Researchers assessed kindergarten students (N = 105) identified as at risk who…

  18. Are subjective memory problems related to suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Bergen, Saskia; Jelicic, Marko; Merckelbach, Harald

    2009-01-01

    The relationship between subjective memory beliefs and suggestibility, compliance, false memories, and objective memory performance was studied in a community sample of young and middle-aged people (N = 142). We hypothesized that people with subjective memory problems would exhibit higher suggestibility and compliance levels and would be more susceptible to false recollections than those who are optimistic about their memory. In addition, we expected a discrepancy between subjective memory judgments and objective memory performance. We found that subjective memory judgments correlated significantly with compliance, with more negative memory judgments accompanying higher levels of compliance. Contrary to our expectation, subjective memory problems did not correlate with suggestibility or false recollections. Furthermore, participants were accurate in estimating their objective memory performance.

  19. Expectancy Effects on Self-Reported Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder Symptoms in Simulated Neurofeedback: A Pilot Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Grace J; Suhr, Julie A

    2018-03-31

    Expectancy is a psychological factor that can impact treatment effectiveness. Research on neurofeedback for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) suggests expectancy may contribute to treatment outcomes, though evidence for expectancy as an explanatory factor is sparse. This pilot study investigated the effects of expectancies on self-reported ADHD symptoms in simulated neurofeedback. Forty-six adults who were concerned that they had ADHD expected to receive active neurofeedback, but were randomly assigned to receive a placebo with false feedback indicating attentive (positive false feedback) or inattentive (negative false feedback) states. Effects of the expectancy manipulation were measured on an ADHD self-report scale. Large expectancy effects were found, such that individuals who received positive false feedback reported significant decreases in ADHD symptoms, whereas individuals who received negative false feedback reported significant increases in ADHD symptoms. Findings suggest that expectancy should be considered as an explanatory mechanism for ADHD symptom change in response to neurofeedback.

  20. Falsely Elevated Plasma Creatinine Due to an Immunoglobulin M Paraprotein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGill, Mitchell R; Vijayan, Anitha; Trulock, Elbert P; Witt, Chad A; Kohler, Giselle D; Scott, Mitchell G

    2016-11-01

    The most common method for measuring plasma creatinine is based on its reaction with picric acid. However, enzymatic methods are becoming more popular due to improved specificity. We present a case of falsely elevated plasma creatinine values obtained by an enzymatic method that turned out to be due to a monoclonal immunoglobulin M (IgM) paraprotein. A 63-year-old woman evaluated for lung transplantation had falsely increased plasma creatinine levels (1.54-1.71mg/dL; corresponding to estimated glomerular filtration rates of 32-36 mL/min/1.73m 2 ) as measured by the Roche Creatinine plus enzymatic assay when compared with the picric acid-based procedure and several other enzymatic methods, which gave plasma creatinine values of 0.7 to 0.8mg/dL. Serum protein electrophoresis revealed an IgM κ light chain paraprotein. Removal of high-molecular-weight (>30kDa) proteins by ultrafiltration reduced the patient's plasma creatinine level by the Roche enzymatic method to 0.7mg/dL. Addition of the patient's immunoglobulin fraction to plasma from other patients with normal plasma creatinine levels resulted in values that were increased by 0.58 to 0.62mg/dL. Furthermore, removal of non-IgM immunoglobulins with protein G-coupled beads did not eliminate the interference from the patient's plasma. Taken together, these studies demonstrate that falsely elevated plasma creatinine values by the Roche enzymatic method can be due to an IgM paraprotein. Copyright © 2016 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. False traumatic aneurysms and arteriovenous fistulas: retrospective analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davidovic, Lazar B; Banzić, Igor; Rich, Norman; Dragaš, Marko; Cvetkovic, Slobodan D; Dimic, Andrija

    2011-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to analyze the incidence, clinical presentation, diagnosis, and treatment of false traumatic aneurysms and arteriovenous fistulas as well as the outcomes of the patients. A retrospective, 16-year survey has been conducted regarding the cases of patients who underwent surgery for false traumatic aneurysms (FTA) of arteries and traumatic arteriovenous fistulas (TAVF). Patients with iatrogenic AV fistulas and iatrogenic false aneurysms were excluded from the study. There were 36 patients with TAVF and 47 with FTA. In all, 73 (87.95%) were male, and 10 (12.05%) were female, with an average age of 36.93 years (13-82 years). In 25 (29.76%) cases TAVF and FTA appeared combat-related, and 59 (70.24%) were in noncombatants. The average of all intervals between the injury and surgery was 919. 8 days (1 day to 41 years) for FTA and 396.6 days (1 day to 9 years) for TAVF. Most of the patients in both groups were surgically treated during the first 30 days after injury. One patient died on the fourth postoperative day. There were two early complications. The early patency rate was 83.34%, and limb salvage was 100%. There were no recurrent AV fistulas that required additional operations. Because of their history of severe complications, FTA and TAV fistulas require prompt treatment. The treatment is simpler if there is only a short interval between the injury and the operation. Surgical endovascular repair is mostly indicated.

  2. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  3. The effects of acute alcohol intoxication on the cognitive mechanisms underlying false facial recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colloff, Melissa F; Flowe, Heather D

    2016-06-01

    False face recognition rates are sometimes higher when faces are learned while under the influence of alcohol. Alcohol myopia theory (AMT) proposes that acute alcohol intoxication during face learning causes people to attend to only the most salient features of a face, impairing the encoding of less salient facial features. Yet, there is currently no direct evidence to support this claim. Our objective was to test whether acute alcohol intoxication impairs face learning by causing subjects to attend to a salient (i.e., distinctive) facial feature over other facial features, as per AMT. We employed a balanced placebo design (N = 100). Subjects in the alcohol group were dosed to achieve a blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of 0.06 %, whereas the no alcohol group consumed tonic water. Alcohol expectancy was controlled. Subjects studied faces with or without a distinctive feature (e.g., scar, piercing). An old-new recognition test followed. Some of the test faces were "old" (i.e., previously studied), and some were "new" (i.e., not previously studied). We varied whether the new test faces had a previously studied distinctive feature versus other familiar characteristics. Intoxicated and sober recognition accuracy was comparable, but subjects in the alcohol group made more positive identifications overall compared to the no alcohol group. The results are not in keeping with AMT. Rather, a more general cognitive mechanism appears to underlie false face recognition in intoxicated subjects. Specifically, acute alcohol intoxication during face learning results in more liberal choosing, perhaps because of an increased reliance on familiarity.

  4. Inhomogeneity of optical turbulence over False Bay (South Africa)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ullwer, Carmen; Sprung, Detlev; van Eijk, Alexander M. J.; Gunter, Willi; Stein, Karin

    2017-09-01

    Atmospheric turbulence impacts on the propagation of electro-optical radiation. Typical manifestations of optical turbulence are scintillation (intensity fluctuations), beam wander and (for laser systems) reduction of beam quality. For longer propagation channels, it is important to characterize the vertical and horizontal distribution (inhomogeneity) of the optical turbulence. In the framework of the First European South African Transmission ExpeRiment (FESTER) optical turbulence was measured between June 2015 and February 2016 on a 2 km over-water link over False Bay. The link ran from the Institute of Maritime Technology (IMT) in Simons Town to the lighthouse at Roman Rock Island. Three Boundary layer scintillometers (BLS900) allowed assessing the vertical distribution of optical turbulence at three different heights between 5 and 12 m above the water surface. The expected decrease of Cn2 with height is not always found. These results are analyzed in terms of the meteorological scenarios, and a comparison is made with a fourth optical link providing optical turbulence data over a 8.7 km path from IMT to Kalk Bay, roughly 36° to the north of the three 2 km paths. The results are related to the inhomogeneous meteorological conditions over the Bay as assessed with the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Forecast and Research model WRF.

  5. Adrenocortical Carcinoma: False Positive in an I-123 Metaiodobenzylguanidine Scan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rey, Cristina Rodriguez; Candil, Aida Ortega; Galvan, Eliseo Vano; Martin, Maria Nieves Cabrera; Delgado, Jose Luis Carreras [Clinico San Carlos Hospital, Madrid (Spain)

    2016-06-15

    A 55-year-old man with a personal his history of left pheochromocytoma 2 years previously presented with an abdominal ultrasound showed a large left upper quadrant solid mass (calipers), with heterogeneous echogenicity and central cystic degeneration areas or necrosis. F-18 Fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography (PET)/CT was performed as ACC was suspected. ACC is an uncommon malignant neoplasm of unknown cause; however, smoking and oral contraceptives may be risk factors. Patients usually present with advanced-stage disease and have poor prognosis, with a 2-year recurrence rate that ranges form 73 to 86 %. An MIBG scan was performed after injection of 185 MBq of I-123 MIBG intravenously. Single photon emission tomography (SPECT)/CT scan showed abnormal isotope accumulation in the tumor region. The patient underwent total resection of the tumor. The histology was of ACC, with areas of necrosis and cystic areas, so the result of the MIBG scan was a false positive. Authors divided false-positive MIBG studies into three categories. The first category is neuroendocrine lesions other than pheochromocytomas (tumors of the APUD series). the second category consists in adrenal lesions other than pheochromocytomas (adenomas, ACC) the reasons for this abnormal uptake are unclear. The third category consists of tracer uptake adjacent to the adrenal due to abnormalities in the route of excretion.

  6. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  7. Test expectancy affects metacomprehension accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Keith W; Wiley, Jennifer; Griffin, Thomas D

    2011-06-01

    Theory suggests that the accuracy of metacognitive monitoring is affected by the cues used to judge learning. Researchers have improved monitoring accuracy by directing attention to more appropriate cues; however, this is the first study to more directly point students to more appropriate cues using instructions regarding tests and practice tests. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the accuracy metacognitive monitoring was affected by the nature of the test expected. Students (N= 59) were randomly assigned to one of two test expectancy groups (memory vs. inference). Then after reading texts, judging learning, completed both memory and inference tests. Test performance and monitoring accuracy were superior when students received the kind of test they had been led to expect rather than the unexpected test. Tests influence students' perceptions of what constitutes learning. Our findings suggest that this could affect how students prepare for tests and how they monitoring their own learning. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  8. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  9. Risk factors for false positive and for false negative test results in screening with fecal occult blood testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stegeman, Inge; de Wijkerslooth, Thomas R.; Stoop, Esther M.; van Leerdam, Monique; van Ballegooijen, M.; Kraaijenhagen, Roderik A.; Fockens, Paul; Kuipers, Ernst J.; Dekker, Evelien; Bossuyt, Patrick M.

    2013-01-01

    Differences in the risk of a false negative or a false positive fecal immunochemical test (FIT) across subgroups may affect optimal screening strategies. We evaluate whether subgroups are at increased risk of a false positive or a false negative FIT result, whether such variability in risk is

  10. [Neuropsychological study of false memory in patients with amnesia mild cognitive impairment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Dan-dan; Cheng, Huai-dong; Yin, Chang-lin; Lü, Xin-yi; Wang, Kai

    2011-01-18

    To explore the profile of false memory in aMCI (amnesia mild cognitive impairment) and to elucidate the neuropsychological mechanism of false memory. False memory provoked by pictures and feeling-of-knowing (FOK) test in episodic memory (EM) were conducted in 25 aMCI patients at our hospital from October 2009 to May 2010. And 25 age and education level-matched healthy patients were recruited into the healthy control (HC) group. As compared with HC group, the rate of false memory was higher in the aMCI group. The rate of false memory in recall stage was 26% ± 7% and that of questionnaire stage 28% ± 12%. And the difference between two group was significant (t = 14.437, 7.597, P false recognition in the aMCI group (41% ± 10%) was higher than the HC group. And the difference was significant (t = 4.207, P false memory in recall and questionnaire stages were positively correlated with FOK-EM in aMCI group (r = 0.563, 0.705, P false memory provoked by pictures. The deficit of memory monitoring in aMCI may be the foundation of false memory.

  11. Career Expectations of Accounting Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elam, Dennis; Mendez, Francis

    2010-01-01

    The demographic make-up of accounting students is dramatically changing. This study sets out to measure how well the profession is ready to accommodate what may be very different needs and expectations of this new generation of students. Non-traditional students are becoming more and more of a tradition in the current college classroom.…

  12. Primary expectations of secondary metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    My program examines the plant secondary metabolites (i.e. phenolics) important for human health, and which impart the organoleptic properties that are quality indicators for fresh and processed foods. Consumer expectations such as appearance, taste, or texture influence their purchasing decisions; a...

  13. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  14. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  15. Optimal Joint Expected Delay Forwarding in Delay Tolerant Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Xu; Xin Feng; Wen Jun Yang; Ru Chuan Wang; Bing Qing Han

    2013-01-01

    Multicopy forwarding schemes have been employed in delay tolerant network (DTN) to improve the delivery delay and delivery rate. Much effort has been focused on reducing the routing cost while retaining high performance. This paper aims to provide an optimal joint expected delay forwarding (OJEDF) protocol which minimizes the expected delay while satisfying a certain constant on the number of forwardings per message. We propose a comprehensive forwarding metric called joint expected delay (JE...

  16. Ethical issues and societal expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metlay, D.

    2010-01-01

    Daniel Metlay (NWTRB) declared that institutions had always recognised an ethical obligation to manage high- level radioactive waste in unprecedented ways. This obligation has not only endured, but has become more explicit and multidimensional and it now subsumed under a more general rubric of 'societal expectations'. D. Metlay directed attention toward the proceedings of previous RWMC-RF workshop ', which contains five essays, authored by Kjell Andersson, Andrew Blowers, Carl-Reinhold Braakenhielm, Francois Dermange, and Patricia Fleming, that are relevant to the question of ethical issues and societal expectations. D. Metlay observed that 'societal expectations' are hard to define and thus very hard to measure. They may vary considerably with time and from country to country. As an illustration he referred to an inquiry performed by a task group 30 years ago in a document entitled 'Proposed Goals for Radioactive Waste Management' (NUREG-0300) on behalf of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Conclusions from D. Metlay are that, for the most part, societal expectations in the United States appear to be quite stable over a period of more than 30 years. In two areas, however, there are clear differences in emphasis between expectations articulated in the last few years and those recorded in 1978. (1) While then there was emphasis on the operational reliability of organisations and institutions. In particular, much care was taken to discuss the inherent limitations on bureaucratic error-correction in the future. The focus is nowadays more on bureaucratic behaviours associated with carrying out decision-making processes in the present. (2) While there is current emphasis on the importance of trust, transparency, and accountability, the NRC document may cast some doubt on the reliability of a stepwise decision-making process. In the domain of radioactive waste management, error signals are notoriously unclear, and strong disagreements over objectives and value trade

  17. The construction of normal expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Røpke, Inge

    2008-01-01

    The gradual upward changes of standards in normal everyday life have significant environmental implications, and it is therefore important to study how these changes come about. The intention of the article is to analyze the social construction of normal expectations through a case study. The case...... concerns the present boom in bathroom renovations in Denmark, which offers an excellent opportunity to study the interplay between a wide variety of consumption drivers and social changes pointing toward long-term changes of normal expectations regarding bathroom standards. The study is problemoriented...... and transdisciplinary and draws on a wide range of sociological, anthropological, and economic theories. The empirical basis comprises a combination of statistics, a review of magazine and media coverage, visits to exhibitions, and qualitative interviews. A variety of consumption drivers are identified. Among...

  18. I Imagine, I Experience, I Like: The False Experience Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Priyali Rajagopal; Nicole Votolato Montgomery

    2011-01-01

    False memories refer to the mistaken belief that an event that did not occur did occur. Much of the research on false memories has focused on the antecedents to and the characteristics of such memories, with little focus on the consequences of false memories. In this research, we show that exposure to an imagery-evoking ad can result in an erroneous belief that an individual has experienced the advertised brand. We also demonstrate that such false experiential beliefs function akin to genuine...

  19. Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meinald T. Thielsch

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

  20. FRANCHISE EXPECTATIONS: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Raissa Kaziyeva

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to provide a critical review of franchising development in Kazakhstan by focusing on the relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. We have conducted extensive research and communicated with lots of potential and existing Kazakhstani franchisors and franchisees, operating since 2003. Our findings show that the process of signing franchising agreements is quite challenging in Kazakhstan.  Thorough investigation of the differences between expectations ...

  1. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  2. Life Expectancy of Brazilian Neurosurgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botelho, Ricardo Vieira; Jardim Miranda, Bárbara Cristina; Nishikuni, Koshiro; Waisberg, Jaques

    2018-06-01

    Life expectancy (LE) refers to the number of years that an individual is expected to survive. Emphasis is frequently placed on the relationship between LE and the conditions under which a population lives, but fewer studies have investigated the relationship between stress factors associated with specific professions and their effects on LE. The aim of this study is to evaluate Brazilian neurosurgeons' life expectancies (BNLEs) and compare them with those of physicians (both Brazilian and foreign) from other fields, as well as with Brazilian nondoctors. The Brazilian Society of Neurosurgery death registry was used to obtain data that compared LEs from non-neurosurgeon physicians, as described in the national and international literature. BNLEs were also compared with the LEs of Brazilian citizens. Fifty-one neurosurgeons died between 2009 and 2016. All were males. The mean age at death was 68.31 ± 17.71 years. Among all-cause mortality, the breakdown was 20% cardiovascular diseases, 39% malignancies, 10% external factors, 6% gastrointestinal disorders, 12% neurologic illnesses, and 14% unknown causes. BNLE was shorter than LE of male Brazilian citizens. LE was similar among neurosurgeons and other doctors but shorter compared with Brazilian citizens. Further research is needed to provide data that can add to and confirm these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  4. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  5. Lexical Association and False Memory for Words in Two Cultures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yuh-Shiow; Chiang, Wen-Chi; Hung, Hsu-Ching

    2008-01-01

    This study examined the relationship between language experience and false memory produced by the DRM paradigm. The word lists used in Stadler, et al. (Memory & Cognition, 27, 494-500, 1999) were first translated into Chinese. False recall and false recognition for critical non-presented targets were then tested on a group of Chinese users.…

  6. Compelling Untruths: Content Borrowing and Vivid False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lampinen, James Michael; Meier, Christopher R.; Arnal, Jack D.; Leding, Juliana K.

    2005-01-01

    False memories are sometimes accompanied by surprisingly vivid experiential detail that makes them difficult to distinguish from actual memories. Such strikingly real false memories may be produced by a process called content borrowing in which details from presented items are errantly borrowed to corroborate the occurrence of the false memory…

  7. Analysis of false results in a series of 835 fine needle aspirates of breast lesions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willis, S L; Ramzy, I

    1995-01-01

    To analyze cases of false diagnoses from a large series to help increase the accuracy of fine needle aspiration of palpable breast lesions. The results of FNA of 835 palpable breast lesions were analyzed to determine the reasons for false positive, false negative and false suspicious diagnoses. Of the 835 aspirates, 174 were reported as positive, 549 as negative and 66 as suspicious or atypical but not diagnostic of malignancy. Forty-six cases were considered unsatisfactory. Tissue was available for comparison in 286 cases. The cytologic diagnoses in these cases were reported as follows: positive, 125 (43.7%); suspicious, 33 (11.5%); atypical, 18 (6.2%); negative, 92 (32%); and unsatisfactory, 18 (6.2%). There was one false positive diagnosis, yielding a false positive rate of 0.8%. This lesion was a case of fibrocystic change with hyperplasia, focal fat necrosis and reparative atypia. There were 14 false negative cases, resulting in a false negative rate of 13.2%. Nearly all these cases were sampling errors and included infiltrating ductal carcinomas (9), ductal carcinomas in situ (2), infiltrating lobular carcinomas (2) and tubular carcinoma (1). Most of the suspicious and atypical lesions proved to be carcinomas (35/50). The remainder were fibroadenomas (6), fibrocystic change (4), gynecomastia (2), adenosis (2) and granulomatous mastitis (1). A positive diagnosis of malignancy by FNA is reliable in establishing the diagnosis and planning the treatment of breast cancer. The false-positive rate is very low, with only a single case reported in 835 aspirates. Most false negatives are due to sampling and not to interpretive difficulties. The category "suspicious but not diagnostic of malignancy" serves a useful purpose in management of patients with breast lumps.

  8. Elucidating the neural correlates of related false memories using a systematic measure of perceptual relatedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turney, Indira C; Dennis, Nancy A

    2017-02-01

    Previous memory research has exploited the perceptual similarities between lures and targets in order to evoke false memories. Nevertheless, while some studies have attempted to use lures that are objectively more similar than others, no study has systematically controlled for perceptual overlap between target and lure items and its role in accounting for false alarm rates or the neural processes underlying such perceptual false memories. The current study looked to fill this gap in the literature by using a face-morphing program to systematically control for the amount of perceptual overlap between lures and targets. Our results converge with previous studies in finding a pattern of differences between true and false memories. Most importantly, expanding upon this work, parametric analyses showed false memory activity increases with respect to the similarity between lures and targets within bilateral middle temporal gyri and right medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC). Moreover, this pattern of activation was unique to false memories and could not be accounted for by relatedness alone. Connectivity analyses further find that activity in the mPFC and left middle temporal gyrus co-vary, suggestive of gist-based monitoring within the context of false memories. Interestingly, neither the MTL nor the fusiform face area exhibited modulation as a function of target-lure relatedness. Overall, these results provide insight into the processes underlying false memories and further enhance our understanding of the role perceptual similarity plays in supporting false memories. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Working memory affects false memory production for emotional events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirandola, Chiara; Toffalini, Enrico; Ciriello, Alfonso; Cornoldi, Cesare

    2017-01-01

    Whereas a link between working memory (WM) and memory distortions has been demonstrated, its influence on emotional false memories is unclear. In two experiments, a verbal WM task and a false memory paradigm for negative, positive or neutral events were employed. In Experiment 1, we investigated individual differences in verbal WM and found that the interaction between valence and WM predicted false recognition, with negative and positive material protecting high WM individuals against false remembering; the beneficial effect of negative material disappeared in low WM participants. In Experiment 2, we lowered the WM capacity of half of the participants with a double task request, which led to an overall increase in false memories; furthermore, consistent with Experiment 1, the increase in negative false memories was larger than that of neutral or positive ones. It is concluded that WM plays a critical role in determining false memory production, specifically influencing the processing of negative material.

  10. Affective valence influences participant's susceptibility to false memories and illusory recollection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehon, Hedwige; Larøi, Frank; Van der Linden, Martial

    2010-10-01

    This study examined the influence of emotional valence on the production of DRM false memories (Roediger & McDermott, 1995). Participants were presented with neutral, positive, or negative DRM lists for a later recognition (Experiment 1) or recall (Experiment 2) test. In both experiments, confidence and recollective experience (i.e., "Remember-Know" judgments; Tulving, 1985) were also assessed. Results consistently showed that, compared with neutral lists, affective lists induced more false recognition and recall of nonpresented critical lures. Moreover, although confidence ratings did not differ between the false remembering from the different kinds of lists, "Remember" responses were more often associated with negative than positive and neutral false remembering of the critical lures. In contrast, positive false remembering of the critical lures was more often associated with "Know" responses. These results are discussed in light of the Paradoxical Negative Emotion (PNE) hypothesis (Porter, Taylor, & ten Bricke, 2008). (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

  11. Dissociative effects of true and false recall as a function of different encoding strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Kerri A

    2007-01-01

    Goodwin, Meissner, and Ericsson (2001) proposed a path model in which elaborative encoding predicted the likelihood of verbalisation of critical, nonpresented words at encoding, which in turn predicted the likelihood of false recall. The present study tested this model of false recall experimentally with a manipulation of encoding strategy and the implementation of the process-tracing technique of protocol analysis. Findings indicated that elaborative encoding led to more verbalisations of critical items during encoding than rote rehearsal of list items, but false recall rates were reduced under elaboration conditions (Experiment 2). Interestingly, false recall was more likely to occur when items were verbalised during encoding than not verbalised (Experiment 1), and participants tended to reinstate their encoding strategies during recall, particularly after elaborative encoding (Experiment 1). Theoretical implications for the interplay of encoding and retrieval processes of false recall are discussed.

  12. Trading Stages: Life Expectancies in Structured Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim; Horvitz, Carol

    2012-01-01

    Interest in stage-and age structured models has recently increased because they can describe quantitative traits such as size that are left out of age-only demography. Available methods for the analysis of effects of vital rates on lifespan in stage-structured models have not been widely applied because they are hard to use and interpret, and tools for age and stage structured populations are missing. We present easily interpretable expressions for the sensitivities and elasticities of life expectancy to vital rates in age-stage models, and illustrate their application with two biological examples. Much of our approach relies on trading of time and mortality risk in one stage for time and risk in others. Our approach contributes to the new framework of the study of age- and stage-structured biodemography. PMID:22664576

  13. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  14. Expectation values in quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop new methods for calculating expectation values of field operators, in situations where particle creation is important. The goal is to apply these techniques to quantum gravity, to see if the initial singularity in the universe might be avoided in the quantum theory. Standard effective action theory is modified to produce effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field in an in state, as opposed to the usual in-out amplitude. Diagrammatic rules are found for calculation of the new field equations, and are used to show that the equations are real and causal up to two loop order. The theory also provides a simple check of unitarity, which is carried out, again up to two loops. Just as the standard effective field equations can be derived by analytic continuation from a theory defined in Euclidean space, so can the modified equations be obtained from a modified contour rotation of the Euclidean theory. This result is used to prove a recent conjecture which yields a simple rule for finding the real, causal equations. The new formalism is applied to two gravitational systems. First, the stability of flat space time is studied by finding the equation satisfied by small perturbations of Minkowski space

  15. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung

    2014-01-01

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety

  16. False-negative results of breast core needle biopsies – retrospective analysis of 988 biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boba, Marek; Kołtun, Urszula; Bobek-Billewicz, Barbara; Chmielik, Ewa; Eksner, Bartosz; Olejnik, Tomasz

    2011-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common malignant neoplasm and the most common cause of death among women. The core needle biopsy is becoming a universal practice in diagnosing breast lesions suspected of malignancy. Unfortunately, breast core needle biopsies also bear the risk of having false-negative results. 988 core needle breast biopsies were performed at the Maria Skłodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Gliwice Branch, between 01 March 2006 and 29 February 2008. Malignant lesions were diagnosed in 426/988 (43.12%) cases, atypical hyperplasia in 69/988 (6.98%), and benign lesions in 493/988 (49.90%) cases. Twenty-two out of 988 biopsies (2.23%) were found to be false negative. Histopathological assessment of tissue specimens was repeated in these cases. In 14/22 (64%) cases, the previous diagnosis of a benign lesion was changed. In 8/22 (36%) cases, the diagnosis of a benign lesion was confirmed. False-negative rate was calculated at 2.2%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses resulting from a radiological mistake was estimated at 36%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses, resulting from histopathological assessment, was 64%. False-negative results caused by a radiological error comprised 1.5% of all histopathologically diagnosed cancers and atypias (sensitivity of 98.5%). There were no false-positive results in our material - the specificity of the method was 100%. Histopathological interpretation is a substantial cause of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy. Thus, in case of a radiological-histopathological divergence, histopathological analysis of biopsy specimens should be repeated. The main radiological causes of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy are as follows: sampling from an inappropriate site and histopathological non-homogeneity of cancer infiltration

  17. False-negative results of breast core needle biopsies - retrospective analysis of 988 biopsies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boba, M.; Koltun, U.; Bobek-Billewicz, B.; Eksner, B.; Olejnik, T.; Chmielik, E.

    2011-01-01

    Background: Breast cancer is the most common malignant neoplasm and the most common cause of death among women. The core needle biopsy is becoming a universal practice in diagnosing breast lesions suspected of malignancy. Unfortunately, breast core needle biopsies also bear the risk of having false-negative results. Material/Methods: 988 core needle breast biopsies were performed at the Maria Sklodowska-Curie Memorial Cancer Center and Institute of Oncology, Gliwice Branch, between 01 March 2006 and 29 February 2008. Malignant lesions were diagnosed in 426/988 (43.12%) cases, atypical hyperplasia in 69/988 (6.98%), and benign lesions in 493/988 (49.90%) cases. Results: Twenty-two out of 988 biopsies (2.23%) were found to be false negative. Histopathological assessment of tissue specimens was repeated in these cases. In 14/22 (64%) cases, the previous diagnosis of a benign lesion was changed. In 8/22 (36%) cases, the diagnosis of a benign lesion was confirmed. False-negative rate was calculated at 2.2%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses resulting from a radiological mistake was estimated at 36%. The rate of false-negative diagnoses, resulting from histopathological assessment, was 64%. False-negative results caused by a radiological error comprised 1.5% of all histopathologically diagnosed cancers and atypias (sensitivity of 98.5%). There were no false-positive results in our material - the specificity of the method was 100%. Conclusions: Histopathological interpretation is a substantial cause of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy. Thus, in case of a radiological-histopathological divergence, histopathological analysis of biopsy specimens should be repeated. The main radiological causes of false-negative results of breast core needle biopsy are as follows: sampling from an inappropriate site and histopathological non-homogeneity of cancer infiltration. (authors)

  18. 5 CFR 9701.323 - Eligibility for pay increase associated with a rate range adjustment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... individual pay increase. An employee who meets or exceeds performance expectations (i.e., has a rating of... 5 Administrative Personnel 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Eligibility for pay increase associated...) DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY HUMAN RESOURCES MANAGEMENT SYSTEM Pay and Pay Administration Setting and...

  19. Reducing false-positive incidental findings with ensemble genotyping and logistic regression based variant filtering methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Kyu-Baek; Lee, In-Hee; Park, Jin-Ho; Hambuch, Tina; Choe, Yongjoon; Kim, MinHyeok; Lee, Kyungjoon; Song, Taemin; Neu, Matthew B; Gupta, Neha; Kohane, Isaac S; Green, Robert C; Kong, Sek Won

    2014-08-01

    As whole genome sequencing (WGS) uncovers variants associated with rare and common diseases, an immediate challenge is to minimize false-positive findings due to sequencing and variant calling errors. False positives can be reduced by combining results from orthogonal sequencing methods, but costly. Here, we present variant filtering approaches using logistic regression (LR) and ensemble genotyping to minimize false positives without sacrificing sensitivity. We evaluated the methods using paired WGS datasets of an extended family prepared using two sequencing platforms and a validated set of variants in NA12878. Using LR or ensemble genotyping based filtering, false-negative rates were significantly reduced by 1.1- to 17.8-fold at the same levels of false discovery rates (5.4% for heterozygous and 4.5% for homozygous single nucleotide variants (SNVs); 30.0% for heterozygous and 18.7% for homozygous insertions; 25.2% for heterozygous and 16.6% for homozygous deletions) compared to the filtering based on genotype quality scores. Moreover, ensemble genotyping excluded > 98% (105,080 of 107,167) of false positives while retaining > 95% (897 of 937) of true positives in de novo mutation (DNM) discovery in NA12878, and performed better than a consensus method using two sequencing platforms. Our proposed methods were effective in prioritizing phenotype-associated variants, and an ensemble genotyping would be essential to minimize false-positive DNM candidates. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

  20. Reduced effects of pictorial distinctiveness on false memory following dynamic visual noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew; Kember, Timothy; Dagnall, Neil

    2017-07-01

    High levels of false recognition for non-presented items typically occur following exposure to lists of associated words. These false recognition effects can be reduced by making the studied items more distinctive by the presentation of pictures during encoding. One explanation of this is that during recognition, participants expect or attempt to retrieve distinctive pictorial information in order to evaluate the study status of the test item. If this involves the retrieval and use of visual imagery, then interfering with imagery processing should reduce the effectiveness of pictorial information in false memory reduction. In the current experiment, visual-imagery processing was disrupted at retrieval by the use of dynamic visual noise (DVN). It was found that effects of DVN dissociated true from false memory. Memory for studied words was not influenced by the presence of an interfering noise field. However, false memory was increased and the effects of picture-induced distinctiveness was eliminated. DVN also increased false recollection and remember responses to unstudied items.

  1. On the adaptive function of children's and adults’ false memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.; Wilkinson, Samantha; Garner, Sarah R.; Ball, Linden J.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Recent research has shown that memory illusions can successfully prime both children's and adults' performance on complex, insight-based problems (compound remote associates tasks or CRATs). The current research aimed to clarify the locus of these priming effects. Like before, Deese–Roediger–McDermott (DRM) lists were selected to prime subsequent CRATs such that the critical lures were also the solution words to a subset of the CRATs participants attempted to solve. Unique to the present research, recognition memory tests were used and participants were either primed during the list study phase, during the memory test phase, or both. Across two experiments, primed problems were solved more frequently and significantly faster than unprimed problems. Moreover, when participants were primed during the list study phase, subsequent solution times and rates were considerably superior to those produced by those participants who were simply primed at test. Together, these are the first results to show that false-memory priming during encoding facilitates problem-solving in both children and adults. PMID:26230151

  2. On the adaptive function of children's and adults' false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Wilkinson, Samantha; Garner, Sarah R; Ball, Linden J

    2016-09-01

    Recent research has shown that memory illusions can successfully prime both children's and adults' performance on complex, insight-based problems (compound remote associates tasks or CRATs). The current research aimed to clarify the locus of these priming effects. Like before, Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) lists were selected to prime subsequent CRATs such that the critical lures were also the solution words to a subset of the CRATs participants attempted to solve. Unique to the present research, recognition memory tests were used and participants were either primed during the list study phase, during the memory test phase, or both. Across two experiments, primed problems were solved more frequently and significantly faster than unprimed problems. Moreover, when participants were primed during the list study phase, subsequent solution times and rates were considerably superior to those produced by those participants who were simply primed at test. Together, these are the first results to show that false-memory priming during encoding facilitates problem-solving in both children and adults.

  3. Affect influences false memories at encoding: evidence from recognition data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storbeck, Justin; Clore, Gerald L

    2011-08-01

    Memory is susceptible to illusions in the form of false memories. Prior research found, however, that sad moods reduce false memories. The current experiment had two goals: (1) to determine whether affect influences retrieval processes, and (2) to determine whether affect influences the strength and the persistence of false memories. Happy or sad moods were induced either before or after learning word lists designed to produce false memories. Control groups did not experience a mood induction. We found that sad moods reduced false memories only when induced before learning. Signal detection analyses confirmed that sad moods induced prior to learning reduced activation of nonpresented critical lures suggesting that they came to mind less often. Affective states, however, did not influence retrieval effects. We conclude that negative affective states promote item-specific processing, which reduces false memories in a similar way as using an explicitly guided cognitive control strategy. 2011 APA, all rights reserved

  4. False belief reasoning in the brain: An ERP study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Understanding others mind and interpersonal interaction are the cognitive basis of successful social interactions. People’s mental states and behaviors rely on their holding beliefs for self and others. To investigate the neural substrates of false belief reasoning, the 32 channels event-related potentials (ERP) of 14 normal adults were measured while they understood false-belief and true belief used de-ceptive appearance task. After onset of the false-belief or true-belief questions, N100, P200 and late negative component (LNC) were elicited at centro-frontal sites. Compared with true belief, false belief reasoning elicited significant declined LNC in the time window from 400 to 800 ms. The source analysis of difference wave (False minus True) showed a dipole located in the middle cingulated cortex. These findings show that false belief reasoning probably included inhibitive process.

  5. False belief reasoning in the brain: An ERP study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2008-01-01

    Understanding others mind and interpersonal interaction are the cognitive basis of successful social interactions. People's mental states and behaviors rely on their holding beliefs for self and others. To investigate the neural substrates of false belief reasoning, the 32 channels event-related potentials (ERP) of 14 normal adults were measured while they understood false-belief and true belief used deceptive appearance task. After onset of the false-belief or true-belief questions, N100, P200 and late negative component (LNC) were elicited at centro-frontal sites. Compared with true belief, false belief reasoning elicited significant declined LNC in the time window from 400 to 800 ms. The source analysis of difference wave (False minus True) showed a dipole located in the middle cingulated cortex. These findings show that false belief reasoning probably included inhibitive process.

  6. Illusory expectations can affect retrieval-monitoring accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDonough, Ian M; Gallo, David A

    2012-03-01

    The present study investigated how expectations, even when illusory, can affect the accuracy of memory decisions. Participants studied words presented in large or small font for subsequent memory tests. Replicating prior work, judgments of learning indicated that participants expected to remember large words better than small words, even though memory for these words was equivalent on a standard test of recognition memory and subjective judgments. Critically, we also included tests that instructed participants to selectively search memory for either large or small words, thereby allowing different memorial expectations to contribute to performance. On these tests we found reduced false recognition when searching memory for large words relative to small words, such that the size illusion paradoxically affected accuracy measures (d' scores) in the absence of actual memory differences. Additional evidence for the role of illusory expectations was that (a) the accuracy effect was obtained only when participants searched memory for the aspect of the stimuli corresponding to illusory expectations (size instead of color) and (b) the accuracy effect was eliminated on a forced-choice test that prevented the influence of memorial expectations. These findings demonstrate the critical role of memorial expectations in the retrieval-monitoring process. 2012 APA, all rights reserved

  7. False alerts in air traffic control conflict alerting system: is there a "cry wolf" effect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wickens, Christopher D; Rice, Stephen; Keller, David; Hutchins, Shaun; Hughes, Jamie; Clayton, Krisstal

    2009-08-01

    The aim is to establish the extent to which the high false-alarm rate of air traffic control midair conflict alerts is responsible for a "cry wolf' effect-where true alerts are not responded to and all alerts are delayed in their response. Some aircraft collisions have been partly attributed to the cry wolf effect, and in other domains (health care and systems monitoring), there is a causal connection between false-alarm rate and cry wolf behavior. We hypothesized that a corresponding relationship exists in air traffic control (ATC). Aircraft track and alert system behavior data surrounding 495 conflict alerts were analyzed to identify true and false alerts, trajectory type, and controller behavior. Forty-five percent of the alerts were false, ranging from 0.28 to 0.58. Although centers with more false alerts contributed to more nonresponses, there was no evidence that these were nonresponses to true alerts or that response times were delayed in those centers. Instead, controllers showed desirable anticipatory behavior by issuing trajectory changes prior to the alert. Those trajectory pairs whose conflicts were more difficult to visualize induced more reliance on, and less compliance with, the alerting system. The high false-alarm rate does not appear to induce cry wolf behavior in the context of en route ATC conflict alerts. There is no need to substantially modify conflict alert algorithms, but the conflict alert system may be modified to address difficult-to-visualize conflicts.

  8. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Taylor, K

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  9. When expectation confounds iconic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Talis; Aru, Jaan

    2016-10-01

    In response to the methodological criticism (Bachmann & Aru, 2015) of the interpretation of their earlier experimental results (Mack, Erol, & Clarke, 2015) Mack, Erol, Clarke, and Bert (2016) presented new results that they interpret again in favor of the stance that an attention-free phenomenal iconic store does not exist. Here we once more question their conclusions. When their subjects were unexpectedly asked to report the letters instead of the post-cued circles in the 101th trial where letters were actually absent, they likely failed to see the empty display area because prior experience with letters in the preceding trials produced expectancy based illusory experience of letter-like objects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Great expectations: large wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, E.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on wind turbine product development, and traces the background to wind turbines from the first generation 1.5 MW machines in 1995-6, plans for the second generation 3-5 MW class turbines to meet the expected boom in offshore wind projects, to the anticipated installation of a 4.5 MW turbine, and offshore wind projects planned for 2000-2002. The switch by the market leader Vestas to variable speed operation in 2000, the new product development and marketing strategy taken by the German Pro + Pro consultancy in their design of a 1.5 MW variable speed pitch control concept, the possible limiting of the size of turbines due to logistical difficulties, opportunities offered by air ships for large turbines, and the commissioning of offshore wind farms are discussed. Details of some 2-5 MW offshore wind turbine design specifications are tabulated

  11. False Discovery Rates in PET and CT Studies with Texture Features: A Systematic Review.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anastasia Chalkidou

    Full Text Available A number of recent publications have proposed that a family of image-derived indices, called texture features, can predict clinical outcome in patients with cancer. However, the investigation of multiple indices on a single data set can lead to significant inflation of type-I errors. We report a systematic review of the type-I error inflation in such studies and review the evidence regarding associations between patient outcome and texture features derived from positron emission tomography (PET or computed tomography (CT images.For study identification PubMed and Scopus were searched (1/2000-9/2013 using combinations of the keywords texture, prognostic, predictive and cancer. Studies were divided into three categories according to the sources of the type-I error inflation and the use or not of an independent validation dataset. For each study, the true type-I error probability and the adjusted level of significance were estimated using the optimum cut-off approach correction, and the Benjamini-Hochberg method. To demonstrate explicitly the variable selection bias in these studies, we re-analyzed data from one of the published studies, but using 100 random variables substituted for the original image-derived indices. The significance of the random variables as potential predictors of outcome was examined using the analysis methods used in the identified studies.Fifteen studies were identified. After applying appropriate statistical corrections, an average type-I error probability of 76% (range: 34-99% was estimated with the majority of published results not reaching statistical significance. Only 3/15 studies used a validation dataset. For the 100 random variables examined, 10% proved to be significant predictors of survival when subjected to ROC and multiple hypothesis testing analysis.We found insufficient evidence to support a relationship between PET or CT texture features and patient survival. Further fit for purpose validation of these image-derived biomarkers should be supported by appropriate biological and statistical evidence before their association with patient outcome is investigated in prospective studies.

  12. False Discovery Rates in PET and CT Studies with Texture Features: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chalkidou, Anastasia; O'Doherty, Michael J; Marsden, Paul K

    2015-01-01

    A number of recent publications have proposed that a family of image-derived indices, called texture features, can predict clinical outcome in patients with cancer. However, the investigation of multiple indices on a single data set can lead to significant inflation of type-I errors. We report a systematic review of the type-I error inflation in such studies and review the evidence regarding associations between patient outcome and texture features derived from positron emission tomography (PET) or computed tomography (CT) images. For study identification PubMed and Scopus were searched (1/2000-9/2013) using combinations of the keywords texture, prognostic, predictive and cancer. Studies were divided into three categories according to the sources of the type-I error inflation and the use or not of an independent validation dataset. For each study, the true type-I error probability and the adjusted level of significance were estimated using the optimum cut-off approach correction, and the Benjamini-Hochberg method. To demonstrate explicitly the variable selection bias in these studies, we re-analyzed data from one of the published studies, but using 100 random variables substituted for the original image-derived indices. The significance of the random variables as potential predictors of outcome was examined using the analysis methods used in the identified studies. Fifteen studies were identified. After applying appropriate statistical corrections, an average type-I error probability of 76% (range: 34-99%) was estimated with the majority of published results not reaching statistical significance. Only 3/15 studies used a validation dataset. For the 100 random variables examined, 10% proved to be significant predictors of survival when subjected to ROC and multiple hypothesis testing analysis. We found insufficient evidence to support a relationship between PET or CT texture features and patient survival. Further fit for purpose validation of these image-derived biomarkers should be supported by appropriate biological and statistical evidence before their association with patient outcome is investigated in prospective studies.

  13. Minimum detectable activity and false alarm rate relationships for alpha continuous air monitors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoover, M.D.; Newton, G.J.

    1994-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy rule for Occupational Radiation Protection (10 CFR Part 835, December 1993) and the DOE Radiological Control Manual (the RCM) (DOE/EH-0256T, Rev. 1, April 1994) require the use of continuous air monitors (CAMs) in normally occupied areas where an individual is likely to be exposed to a concentration of airborne radioactivity exceeding the derived air concentration (DAC) or where there is a need to alert potentially exposed individuals to unexpected increases in airborne radioactivity levels. The DAC is the airborne concentration that equals the annual limit on intake divided by the volume of air breathed by an average worker for a working year of 2000 h (assuming a breathing volume of 2400 m 3 ). It is equivalent to the airborne concentration to which a worker could be exposed for an entire working year (2000 h) without exceeding the allowable annual limit on intake. The rule and the RCM further require that real-time air monitors have an alarm capability and sufficient sensitivity to alert potentially exposed individuals that immediate action is necessary in order to minimize or terminate inhalation exposures. The RCM also recommends that real-time air monitors should be capable of measuring 1 DAC when averaged over 8 h (8 DAC-h) under laboratory conditions. In response to these recommendations, we are developing procedures for determining the basic sensitivity of alpha CAMs under laboratory conditions and for documenting practical alarm set points for routine use of CAMs under a range of radon and thoron concentrations

  14. Mood-congruent true and false memory: effects of depression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L; Malone, Catherine

    2011-02-01

    The Deese/Roediger-McDermott paradigm was used to investigate the effect of depression on true and false recognition. In this experiment true and false recognition was examined across positive, neutral, negative, and depression-relevant lists for individuals with and without a diagnosis of major depressive disorder. Results showed that participants with major depressive disorder falsely recognised significantly more depression-relevant words than non-depressed controls. These findings also parallel recent research using recall instead of recognition and show that there are clear mood congruence effects for depression on false memory performance. © 2011 Psychology Press, an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business

  15. Motivated reconstruction: The effect of brand commitment on false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montgomery, Nicole Votolato; Rajagopal, Priyali

    2018-06-01

    Across 5 studies, we examine the effect of prior brand commitment on the creation of false memories about product experience after reading online product reviews. We find that brand commitment and the valence of reviews to which consumers are exposed, interact to affect the incidence of false memories. Thus, highly committed consumers are more susceptible to the creation of false experience memories on exposure to positive versus negative reviews, whereas low commitment consumers exhibit similar levels of false memories in response to both positive and negative reviews. Further, these differences across brand commitment are attenuated when respondents are primed with an accuracy motivation, suggesting that the biasing effects of commitment are likely because of the motivation to defend the committed brand. Finally, we find that differences in false memories subsequently lead to differences in intentions to spread word-of-mouth (e.g., recommend the product to friends), suggesting that the consequences of false product experience memories can be significant for marketers and consumers. Our findings contribute to the literatures in false memory and marketing by documenting a motivated bias in false memories because of brand commitment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

  16. Scenario analysis of false indication in computer-control systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tseng, Wan-Hui; Fan, Chin-Feng

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► A new failure mode and effect for safety-critical systems is proposed. ► False indication is the most dreadful kind of partial failures. ► A model-based simulation approach to generate failure scenarios is proposed. ► Simulation results showed that multiple errors may cause undesired consequences. ► An assertion-based method to detect false indication problems is provided. -- Abstract: Computer control may cause additional failure modes and effects that are new to analogue systems. False indication is one such failure mode that may bring unknown risks to a system. False indication refers to the problem when part of a system fails while other processes still work, and the failure is not revealed to operators. This paper presents a model-based simulation approach to systematically generate potential false indication and unintended consequences. Experiments showed that once a false indication occurs, it may have drastic effects on system safety. False indication can mislead the operator to perform adverse actions or no action. Therefore, we propose an assertion-based detection method to alleviate such failures. Our assertions contain process/device dependencies, timing relations and physical conservation rules. With these assertions, the operator may be alerted at run time. The proposed technique can reduce false indication problem. Moreover, it can also be used to assist the system design.

  17. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  18. Recollection Rejection: How Children Edit Their False Memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brainerd, C. J.; Reyna, V. F.

    2002-01-01

    Presents new measure of children's use of an editing operation that suppresses false memories by accessing verbatim traces of true events. Application of the methodology showed that false-memory editing increased dramatically between early and middle childhood. Measure reacted appropriately to experimental manipulations. Developmental reductions…

  19. Effects of Aging and Education on False Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yuh-Shiow; Lee, Chia-Lin; Yang, Hua-Te

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the effects of aging and education on participants' false memory for words that were not presented. Three age groups of participants with either a high or low education level were asked to study lists of semantically related words. Both age and education were found to affect veridical and false memory, as indicated in the…

  20. Do Children "DRM" Like Adults? False Memory Production in Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzger, Richard L.; Warren, Amye R.; Shelton, Jill T.; Price, Jodi; Reed, Andrea W.; Williams, Danny

    2008-01-01

    The Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm was used to investigate developmental trends in accurate and false memory production. In Experiment 1, DRM lists adjusted to be more consistent with children's vocabulary were used with 2nd graders, 8th graders, and college students. Accurate and false recall and recognition increased with age, but…

  1. Visual Distinctiveness and the Development of Children's False Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howe, Mark L.

    2008-01-01

    Distinctiveness effects in children's (5-, 7-, and 11-year-olds) false memory illusions were examined using visual materials. In Experiment 1, developmental trends (increasing false memories with age) were obtained using Deese-Roediger-McDermott lists presented as words and color photographs but not line drawings. In Experiment 2, when items were…

  2. Chondrichthyan occurrence and abundance trends in False Bay ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Commercial fishing in False Bay, South Africa, began in the 1600s. Today chondrichthyans are regularly taken in fisheries throughout the bay. Using a combination of catch, survey and life history data, the occurrence and long-term changes in populations of chondrichthyans in False Bay are described. Analyses of time ...

  3. False Belief and Language Comprehension in Cantonese-Speaking Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Him

    2006-01-01

    The current research compared two accounts of the relation between language and false belief in children, namely that (a) language is generally related to false belief because both require secondary representation in a social-interactional context and that (b) specific language structures that explicitly code meta representation contribute…

  4. Too Good to be False : Nonsignificant Results Revisited

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartgerink, Chris H J; Wicherts, Jelte M.; Van Assen, M. A. L. M.

    2017-01-01

    Due to its probabilistic nature, Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) is subject to decision errors. The concern for false positives has overshadowed the concern for false negatives in the recent debates in psychology. This might be unwarranted, since reported statistically nonsignificant

  5. Associations among False Belief Understanding, Counterfactual Reasoning, and Executive Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guajardo, Nicole R.; Parker, Jessica; Turley-Ames, Kandi

    2009-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to clarify previous work on the association between counterfactual thinking and false belief performance to determine (1) whether these two variables are related and (2) if so, whether executive function skills mediate the relationship. A total of 92 3-, 4-, and 5-year-olds completed false belief,…

  6. Misattribution, false recognition and the sins of memory.

    OpenAIRE

    Schacter, D L; Dodson, C S

    2001-01-01

    Memory is sometimes a troublemaker. Schacter has classified memory's transgressions into seven fundamental 'sins': transience, absent-mindedness, blocking, misattribution, suggestibility, bias and persistence. This paper focuses on one memory sin, misattribution, that is implicated in false or illusory recognition of episodes that never occurred. We present data from cognitive, neuropsychological and neuroimaging studies that illuminate aspects of misattribution and false recognition. We firs...

  7. Epidemiology, public health, and the rhetoric of false positives

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blair, Aaron; Saracci, Rodolfo; Vineis, Paolo

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: As an observational science, epidemiology is regarded by some researchers as inherently flawed and open to false results. In a recent paper, Boffetta et al. [Boffetta P, McLaughlin JK, LaVecchia C, Tarone RE, Lipworth L, Blot WJ. False-positive results in cancer epidemiology: a plea f...

  8. Proposal for the award of an industrial support contract for paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN

    CERN Document Server

    2006-01-01

    This document concerns the award of a contract for paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN. The Finance Committee is invited to agree to the negotiation of a contract with the firm PREZIOSO (FR), the lowest bidder, for the provision of paintwork, false ceilings, plasterwork and false floors at CERN for a period of three years for a total amount not exceeding 538 419 euros (830 381 Swiss francs), not subject to revision for the first two years. The contract will include options for two one-year extensions beyond the initial threeyear period.

  9. Consequences of a false-positive mammography result

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    von Euler-Chelpin, My; Bæksted, Christina; Vejborg, Ilse

    2016-01-01

    group used anxiolytic and antidepressant drugs. There was no difference in use of beta blockers. Hormone therapy was used more frequently by the false-positive, 36.6% versus 28.7%. The proportion of women using anxiolytic and antidepressant drugs increased with 19% from the before to the after period...... in the false-positive group, and with 16% in the normal group, resulting in an RRR of 1.02 (95% CI 0.92-1.14). RRR was 1.03 for beta blockers, 0.97 for hormone therapy. Conclusion(s): Drugs used to mitigate mood disorders were used more frequently by women with false-positive than by women with normal......Background: Previous research showed women experiencing false-positive mammograms to have greater anxiety about breast cancer than women with normal mammograms. To elucidate psychological effects of false-positive mammograms, we studied impact on drug intake.  Methods: We calculated the ratio...

  10. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  11. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  12. Keynes, investment, unemployment and expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Ron P.; Zoega, Gylfi

    2009-01-01

    In Keynes' General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the 'Keynesian'...

  13. Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

  14. Will energy crop yields meet expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Stephanie Y.; Malins, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    Expectations are high for energy crops. Government policies in the United States and Europe are increasingly supporting biofuel and heat and power from cellulose, and biomass is touted as a partial solution to energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we review the literature for yields of 5 major potential energy crops: Miscanthus spp., Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), Populus spp. (poplar), Salix spp. (willow), and Eucalyptus spp. Very high yields have been achieved for each of these types of energy crops, up to 40 t ha −1  y −1 in small, intensively managed trials. But yields are significantly lower in semi-commercial scale trials, due to biomass losses with drying, harvesting inefficiency under real world conditions, and edge effects in small plots. To avoid competition with food, energy crops should be grown on non-agricultural land, which also lowers yields. While there is potential for yield improvement for each of these crops through further research and breeding programs, for several reasons the rate of yield increase is likely to be slower than historically has been achieved for cereals; these include relatively low investment, long breeding periods, low yield response of perennial grasses to fertilizer, and inapplicability of manipulating the harvest index. Miscanthus × giganteus faces particular challenges as it is a sterile hybrid. Moderate and realistic expectations for the current and future performance of energy crops are vital to understanding the likely cost and the potential of large-scale production. - Highlights: • This review covers Miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, willow, and Eucalyptus. • High yields of energy crops are typically from small experimental plots. • Field scale yields are lower due to real world harvesting losses and edge effects. • The potential for yield improvement of energy crops is relatively limited. • Expectations must be realistic for successful policies and commercial production

  15. Experimental Effects of Acute Exercise on Prospective Memory and False Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, David; Loprinzi, Paul D

    2018-01-01

    Research demonstrates that acute exercise can enhance retrospective episodic memory performance. However, limited research has examined the effects of acute exercise on prospective memory, and no studies have examined the effects of exercise on false memory performance. This study examined the potential effects of acute exercise on prospective memory and false memory performance. A between-group randomized controlled trial was employed, with participants (college students; M age  = 20 years) randomized into an exercise group (15-minute acute bout of treadmill walking; N = 25) or a control group (15 minutes of sitting; N = 26). Prospective memory was assessed from two laboratory and two naturalistic assessments outside the lab. False memory was assessed using a word-list trial. There were no statistically significant differences in prospective memory based on group allocation (F Group×Time  = 1.17; P = 0.32; η 2  = 0.06). However, the control group recalled more false words and had a higher rate of false memory recognition (F Group×Time  = 3.15; P = 0.01; η 2  = 0.26). These findings indicate that acute moderate-intensity aerobic exercise is not associated with prospective memory performance but provides some suggestive evidence that acute exercise may reduce the rate of false memories.

  16. Study of false positives in 5-ALA induced photodynamic diagnosis of bladder carcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draga, Ronald O. P.; Grimbergen, Matthijs C. M.; Kok, Esther T.; Jonges, Trudy G. N.; Bosch, J. L. H. R.

    2009-02-01

    Photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) is a technique that enhances the detection of tumors during cystoscopy using a photosensitizer which accumulates primarily in cancerous cells and will fluoresce when illuminated by violetblue light. A disadvantage of PDD is the relatively low specificity. In this retrospective study we aimed to identify predictors for false positive findings in PDD. Factors such as gender, age, recent transurethral resection of bladder tumors (TURBT), previous intravesical therapy (IVT) and urinary tract infections (UTIs) were examined for association with the false positive rates in a multivariate analysis. Data of 366 procedures and 200 patients were collected. Patients were instilled with 5-aminolevulinic acid (5-ALA) intravesically and 1253 biopsies were taken from tumors and suspicious lesions. Female gender and TURBT are independent predictors of false positives in PDD. However, previous intravesical therapy with Bacille Calmette-Guérin is also an important predictor of false positives. The false positive rate decreases during the first 9-12 weeks after the latest TURBT and the latest intravesical chemotherapy. Although shortly after IVT and TURBT false positives increase, PDD improves the diagnostic sensitivity and results in more adequate treatment strategies in a significant number of patients.

  17. Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Irving

    2018-01-01

    In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Expectations and Experiences of Information Literacy Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saga Pohjola-Ahlin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In May 2016, 48 third semester undergraduate students enrolled in the physiotherapy program at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden were given three sets of questionnaires; before the information literacy instruction (ILI started, at the end of the first session, and a week after, at the end of the second and last session. The aim of this small-scale pilot study was to shed some light on students’ motivation to attend ILI, how they value the sessions afterwards and how they assess their learning outcome. Furthermore, it was an attempt to do a "students’ user experience study” in a pedagogical setting, with the intention to evaluate and improve teaching in ILI to meet student expectations. The average response rate for the three questionnaires was 92%. The results show that students’ expectations were similar to the actual content of ILI, and that the students were satisfied with their own learning outcome. Both motivation and the sense of relevance got higher scores after students attended ILI. Motivation rose from 7,4 to 8,12 out of 10. This is positive because a high level of motivation often improves the learning outcome (Schunk, 2012. When asked which areas most needed improvement in order to further enhance their learning outcome, the most common responses were “the pedagogy” and “my own achievement”. It would be interesting to start collaborating with a group of students in order to explore new methods and learning activities.

  19. Increase in social inequality in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    AIMS: Health expectancy represents the average lifetime in various states of health and differs among social groups. The purpose of the study was to determine trends in social inequality in health expectancy since 1994 between groups with high, medium and low educational levels in Denmark. METHODS...... educational level, the increase was 2.7 years for men and 2.2 years for women. The difference between people with low and high educational level in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 2.0 and 1.3 years for 30-year-old men and women, respectively. The social gap also increased for other...... indicators. CONCLUSIONS: During the past 12 years, social inequality in life expectancy and health expectancy has increased in Denmark, but the proportion of the population with a low educational level has decreased....

  20. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women......Background: The population of Greenland comprises almost 31 000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Methods: Partial...... life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from...

  1. Semantic representations in the temporal pole predict false memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Martin J.; Anjum, Raeesa S.; Kumaran, Dharshan; Schacter, Daniel L.; Spiers, Hugo J.; Hassabis, Demis

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances in neuroscience have given us unprecedented insight into the neural mechanisms of false memory, showing that artificial memories can be inserted into the memory cells of the hippocampus in a way that is indistinguishable from true memories. However, this alone is not enough to explain how false memories can arise naturally in the course of our daily lives. Cognitive psychology has demonstrated that many instances of false memory, both in the laboratory and the real world, can be attributed to semantic interference. Whereas previous studies have found that a diverse set of regions show some involvement in semantic false memory, none have revealed the nature of the semantic representations underpinning the phenomenon. Here we use fMRI with representational similarity analysis to search for a neural code consistent with semantic false memory. We find clear evidence that false memories emerge from a similarity-based neural code in the temporal pole, a region that has been called the “semantic hub” of the brain. We further show that each individual has a partially unique semantic code within the temporal pole, and this unique code can predict idiosyncratic patterns of memory errors. Finally, we show that the same neural code can also predict variation in true-memory performance, consistent with an adaptive perspective on false memory. Taken together, our findings reveal the underlying structure of neural representations of semantic knowledge, and how this semantic structure can both enhance and distort our memories. PMID:27551087

  2. Semantic representations in the temporal pole predict false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick, Martin J; Anjum, Raeesa S; Kumaran, Dharshan; Schacter, Daniel L; Spiers, Hugo J; Hassabis, Demis

    2016-09-06

    Recent advances in neuroscience have given us unprecedented insight into the neural mechanisms of false memory, showing that artificial memories can be inserted into the memory cells of the hippocampus in a way that is indistinguishable from true memories. However, this alone is not enough to explain how false memories can arise naturally in the course of our daily lives. Cognitive psychology has demonstrated that many instances of false memory, both in the laboratory and the real world, can be attributed to semantic interference. Whereas previous studies have found that a diverse set of regions show some involvement in semantic false memory, none have revealed the nature of the semantic representations underpinning the phenomenon. Here we use fMRI with representational similarity analysis to search for a neural code consistent with semantic false memory. We find clear evidence that false memories emerge from a similarity-based neural code in the temporal pole, a region that has been called the "semantic hub" of the brain. We further show that each individual has a partially unique semantic code within the temporal pole, and this unique code can predict idiosyncratic patterns of memory errors. Finally, we show that the same neural code can also predict variation in true-memory performance, consistent with an adaptive perspective on false memory. Taken together, our findings reveal the underlying structure of neural representations of semantic knowledge, and how this semantic structure can both enhance and distort our memories.

  3. False recall and recognition of brand names increases over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, Susan M

    2013-01-01

    Using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, participants are presented with lists of associated words (e.g., bed, awake, night). Subsequently, they reliably have false memories for related but nonpresented words (e.g., SLEEP). Previous research has found that false memories can be created for brand names (e.g., Morrisons, Sainsbury's, Waitrose, and TESCO). The present study investigates the effect of a week's delay on false memories for brand names. Participants were presented with lists of brand names followed by a distractor task. In two between-subjects experiments, participants completed a free recall task or a recognition task either immediately or a week later. In two within-subjects experiments, participants completed a free recall task or a recognition task both immediately and a week later. Correct recall for presented list items decreased over time, whereas false recall for nonpresented lure items increased. For recognition, raw scores revealed an increase in false memory across time reflected in an increase in Remember responses. Analysis of Pr scores revealed that false memory for lures stayed constant over a week, but with an increase in Remember responses in the between-subjects experiment and a trend in the same direction in the within-subjects experiment. Implications for theories of false memory are discussed.

  4. Misattribution, false recognition and the sins of memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schacter, D L; Dodson, C S

    2001-09-29

    Memory is sometimes a troublemaker. Schacter has classified memory's transgressions into seven fundamental 'sins': transience, absent-mindedness, blocking, misattribution, suggestibility, bias and persistence. This paper focuses on one memory sin, misattribution, that is implicated in false or illusory recognition of episodes that never occurred. We present data from cognitive, neuropsychological and neuroimaging studies that illuminate aspects of misattribution and false recognition. We first discuss cognitive research examining possible mechanisms of misattribution associated with false recognition. We also consider ways in which false recognition can be reduced or avoided, focusing in particular on the role of distinctive information. We next turn to neuropsychological research concerning patients with amnesia and Alzheimer's disease that reveals conditions under which such patients are less susceptible to false recognition than are healthy controls, thus providing clues about the brain mechanisms that drive false recognition. We then consider neuroimaging studies concerned with the neural correlates of true and false recognition, examining when the two forms of recognition can and cannot be distinguished on the basis of brain activity. Finally, we argue that even though misattribution and other memory sins are annoying and even dangerous, they can also be viewed as by-products of adaptive features of memory.

  5. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  6. Can false memory for critical lures occur without conscious awareness of list words?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadler, Daniel D; Sodmont, Sharon M; Keefer, Lucas A

    2018-02-01

    We examined whether the DRM false memory effect can occur when list words are presented below the perceptual identification threshold. In four experiments, subjects showed robust veridical memory for studied words and false memory for critical lures when masked list words were presented at exposure durations of 43 ms per word. Shortening the exposure duration to 29 ms virtually eliminated veridical recognition of studied words and completely eliminated false recognition of critical lures. Subjective visibility ratings in Experiments 3a and 3b support the assumption that words presented at 29 ms were subliminal for most participants, but were occasionally experienced with partial awareness by participants with higher perceptual awareness. Our results indicate that a false memory effect does not occur in the absence of conscious awareness of list words, but it does occur when word stimuli are presented at an intermediate level of visibility. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Word type effects in false recall: concrete, abstract, and emotion word critical lures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauer, Lisa M; Olheiser, Erik L; Altarriba, Jeanette; Landi, Nicole

    2009-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that definable qualities of verbal stimuli have implications for memory. For example, the distinction between concrete and abstract words has led to the finding that concrete words have an advantage in memory tasks (i.e., the concreteness effect). However, other word types, such as words that label specific human emotions, may also affect memory processes. This study examined the effects of word type on the production of false memories by using a list-learning false memory paradigm. Participants heard lists of words that were highly associated to nonpresented concrete, abstract, or emotion words (i.e., the critical lures) and then engaged in list recall. Emotion word critical lures were falsely recalled at a significantly higher rate (with the effect carried by the positively valenced critical lures) than concrete and abstract critical lures. These findings suggest that the word type variable has implications for our understanding of the mechanisms that underlie recall and false recall.

  8. Characterisation of false-positive observations in botanical surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Quentin J. Groom

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Errors in botanical surveying are a common problem. The presence of a species is easily overlooked, leading to false-absences; while misidentifications and other mistakes lead to false-positive observations. While it is common knowledge that these errors occur, there are few data that can be used to quantify and describe these errors. Here we characterise false-positive errors for a controlled set of surveys conducted as part of a field identification test of botanical skill. Surveys were conducted at sites with a verified list of vascular plant species. The candidates were asked to list all the species they could identify in a defined botanically rich area. They were told beforehand that their final score would be the sum of the correct species they listed, but false-positive errors counted against their overall grade. The number of errors varied considerably between people, some people create a high proportion of false-positive errors, but these are scattered across all skill levels. Therefore, a person’s ability to correctly identify a large number of species is not a safeguard against the generation of false-positive errors. There was no phylogenetic pattern to falsely observed species; however, rare species are more likely to be false-positive as are species from species rich genera. Raising the threshold for the acceptance of an observation reduced false-positive observations dramatically, but at the expense of more false negative errors. False-positive errors are higher in field surveying of plants than many people may appreciate. Greater stringency is required before accepting species as present at a site, particularly for rare species. Combining multiple surveys resolves the problem, but requires a considerable increase in effort to achieve the same sensitivity as a single survey. Therefore, other methods should be used to raise the threshold for the acceptance of a species. For example, digital data input systems that can verify

  9. Recursive belief manipulation and second-order false-beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Braüner, Torben; Blackburn, Patrick Rowan; Polyanskaya, Irina

    2016-01-01

    it indicate that a more fundamental *conceptual change* has taken place? In this paper we extend Braüner's hybrid-logical analysis of first-order false-belief tasks to the second-order case, and argue that our analysis supports a version of the conceptual change position.......The literature on first-order false-belief is extensive, but less is known about the second-order case. The ability to handle second-order false-beliefs correctly seems to mark a cognitively significant step, but what is its status? Is it an example of *complexity only* development, or does...

  10. Evolving expectations from international organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz Lopez, C.

    2008-01-01

    The author stated that implementation of the geological disposal concept requires a strategy that provides national decision makers with sufficient confidence in the level of long-term safety and protection ultimately achieved. The concept of protection against harm has a broader meaning than radiological protection in terms of risk and dose. It includes the protection of the environment and socio-economic interests of communities. She recognised that a number of countries have established regulatory criteria already, and others are now discussing what constitutes a proper regulatory test and suitable time frame for judging the safety of long-term disposal. Each regulatory programme seeks to define reasonable tests of repository performance, using protection criteria and safety approaches consistent with the culture, values and expectations of the citizens of the country concerned. This means that there are differences in how protection and safety are addressed in national approaches to regulation and in the bases used for that. However, as was recognised in the Cordoba Workshop, it would be important to reach a minimum level of consistency and be able to explain the differences. C. Ruiz-Lopez presented an overview of the development of international guidance from ICRP, IAEA and NEA from the Cordoba workshop up to now, and positions of independent National Advisory Bodies. The evolution of these guidelines over time demonstrates an evolving understanding of long-term implications, with the recognition that dose and risk constraints should not be seen as measures of detriment beyond a few hundred years, the emphasis on sound engineering practices, and the introduction of new concepts and approaches which take into account social and economical aspects (e.g. constrained optimisation, BAT, managerial principles). In its new recommendations, ICRP (draft 2006) recognizes. in particular, that decision making processes may depend on other societal concerns and considers

  11. Disfluent presentations lead to the creation of more false memories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Christopher A; Naylor, Jamie S

    2018-01-01

    The creation of false memories within the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm has been shown to be sensitive to many factors such as task instructions, participant mood, or even presentation modality. However, do other simple perceptual differences also impact performance on the DRM and the creation of false memories? This study explores the potential impact of changes in perceptual disfluency on DRM performance. To test for a potential influence of disfluency on false memory creation, participants viewed lists under either perceptually disfluent conditions or not. Results indicated that disfluency did significantly impact performance in the DRM paradigm; more disfluent presentations significantly increased the recall and recognition of unpresented information, although they did not impact recall or recognition of presented information. Thus, although disfluency did impact performance, disfluency did not produce a positive benefit related to overall task performance. This finding instead suggests that more disfluent presentations can increase the likelihood that false memories are created, and provide little positive performance benefit.

  12. Can false memories be created through nonconscious processes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeelenberg, René; Plomp, Gijs; Raaijmakers, Jeroen G W

    2003-09-01

    Presentation times of study words presented in the Deese/Roediger and McDermott (DRM) paradigm varied from 20 to 2000 ms per word in an attempt to replicate the false memory effect following extremely short presentations reported by. Both in a within-subjects design (Experiment 1) and in a between-subjects design (Experiment 2) subjects showed memory for studied words as well as a false memory effect for related critical lures in the 2000-ms condition. However, in the conditions with shorter presentation times (20 ms in Experiment 1; 20 and 40 ms in Experiment 2) no memory for studied words, nor a false memory effect was found. We argue that there is at present no strong evidence supporting the claim for a nonconscious basis of the false memory effect.

  13. Color waves : a simple heuristic for choosing false colors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Overveld, van C.W.A.M.

    1997-01-01

    A simple heuristic is presented for choosing false colors for visualizing scalar functions on two-dimensional domains. The color scheme allows inspection of the function on several length scales simultanously.

  14. False memories in highly superior autobiographical memory individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patihis, Lawrence; Frenda, Steven J.; LePort, Aurora K. R.; Petersen, Nicole; Nichols, Rebecca M.; Stark, Craig E. L.; McGaugh, James L.; Loftus, Elizabeth F.

    2013-01-01

    The recent identification of highly superior autobiographical memory (HSAM) raised the possibility that there may be individuals who are immune to memory distortions. We measured HSAM participants’ and age- and sex-matched controls’ susceptibility to false memories using several research paradigms. HSAM participants and controls were both susceptible to false recognition of nonpresented critical lure words in an associative word-list task. In a misinformation task, HSAM participants showed higher overall false memory compared with that of controls for details in a photographic slideshow. HSAM participants were equally as likely as controls to mistakenly report they had seen nonexistent footage of a plane crash. Finding false memories in a superior-memory group suggests that malleable reconstructive mechanisms may be fundamental to episodic remembering. Paradoxically, HSAM individuals may retrieve abundant and accurate autobiographical memories using fallible reconstructive processes. PMID:24248358

  15. False memory for context activates the parahippocampal cortex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanian, Jessica M; Slotnick, Scott D

    2014-01-01

    Previous studies have reported greater activity in the parahippocampal cortex during true memory than false memory, which has been interpreted as reflecting greater sensory processing during true memory. However, in these studies, sensory detail and contextual information were confounded. In the present fMRI study, we employed a novel paradigm to dissociate these factors. During encoding, abstract shapes were presented in one of two contexts (i.e., moving or stationary). During retrieval, participants classified shapes as previously "moving" or "stationary." Critically, contextual processing was relatively greater during false memory ("moving" responses to stationary items), while sensory processing was relatively greater during true memory ("moving" responses to moving items). Within the medial temporal lobe, false memory versus true memory produced greater activity in the parahippocampal cortex, whereas true memory versus false memory produced greater activity in the hippocampus. The present results indicate that the parahippocampal cortex mediates contextual processing rather than sensory processing.

  16. Can False Advertising Give Rise to Antitrust Liability? (2)

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Cole

    2014-01-01

    With the Retractable Technologies case, is the theory that false advertising can give rise to violations of the Sherman Act, while rarely invoked, gaining traction? Christopher A. Cole (Crowell & Moring)

  17. Can False Advertising Give Rise to Antitrust Liability?

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher Cole

    2014-01-01

    With the Retractable Technologies case, is the theory that false advertising can give rise to violations of the Sherman Act, while rarely invoked, gaining traction? Christopher A. Cole (Crowell & Moring)

  18. A True-False Test on Methods of Typewriting Instruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    West, Leonard J.

    1984-01-01

    Presents a true-false test on typewriting instruction to illustrate the effects of educational lag, publishing practices, and deficiencies in preservice and inservice teacher education upon teaching methods. (SK)

  19. False-positive 111In-pentetreotide Uptake in Gastritis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usmani, Sharjeel; Alshammari, Alshaima

    2013-01-01

    111 In-pentetreotide [ 111 In-octreoscan] is the most widely used radiolabeled somatostatin analog for evaluating neuroendocrine tumor overexpression of somatostatin receptors. False-positives studies of somatostatin receptor scintigraphy have been reported and often the cause is unexplained but assumed to be due to high number of somatostatin receptors in other pathologies. Causes of false-positives include visualization of the gallbladder, nasal mucosa and pulmonary hilar areas in respiratory infections, thyroid abnormalities, accessory spleens, recent Cerebrovascular accidents (CVA's) and activity at the site of a recent surgical incision. In infection or inflammation the cause of false-positive uptake is probably the result of tracer binding by somatostatin receptors on the inflammatory leukocytes. In this case report, we report, a 44-year-old male patient with false-positive 111 In-pentetreotide uptake due to gastritis

  20. Effects of intercropping sesame, Sesamum indicum and false ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Effects of intercropping sesame, Sesamum indicum and false sesame, Ceratotheca sesamoides on infestation by the sesame leafroller, Antigastra catalaunalis, the green semilooper, Chrysodeixis acuta and the parasitiod, Apanteles syleptae.

  1. What to expect from Obamacare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbins RA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Overall it appears that the ACA will have minimal impact on its goals of expanding care to the poor, reducing costs or improving care for the foreseeable future. It will likely continue to cost shift reimbursement away from physicians while costs continue to rise. Almost certainly it will be entangled in political bickering, eligibility challenges and lawsuits reducing many of the benefits of the law. However, we can probably be assured that CMS will continue to rely on inaccurately reported data, quickly declare their programs successful and stay their course, despite the programs doing little to nothing for patients. When their programs focus on outcomes such as mortality, morbidity, length of stay and readmission rates, real progress can be made in improving patient care rather than “spinning” dubious results.

  2. Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

    2010-01-01

    We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility.

  3. Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

    2012-01-01

    We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility. PMID:23243469

  4. Massive Black-Hole Binary Mergers: Dynamics, Environments & Expected Detections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Luke Zoltan

    2018-05-01

    This thesis studies the populations and dynamics of massive black-hole binaries and their mergers, and explores the implications for electromagnetic and gravitational-wave signals that will be detected in the near future. Massive black-holes (MBH) reside in the centers of galaxies, and when galaxies merge, their MBH interact and often pair together. We base our study on the populations of MBH and galaxies from the `Illustris' cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The bulk of the binary merger dynamics, however, are unresolved in cosmological simulations. We implement a suite of comprehensive physical models for the merger process, like dynamical friction and gravitational wave emission, which are added in post-processing. Contrary to many previous studies, we find that the most massive binaries with near equal-mass companions are the most efficient at coalescing; though the process still typically takes gigayears.From the data produced by these MBH binary populations and their dynamics, we calculate the expected gravitational wave (GW) signals: both the stochastic, GW background of countless unresolved sources, and the GW foreground of individually resolvable binaries which resound above the noise. Ongoing experiments, called pulsar timing arrays, are sensitive to both of these types of signals. We find that, while the current lack of detections is unsurprising, both the background and foreground will plausibly be detected in the next decade. Unlike previous studies which have predicted the foreground to be significantly harder to detect than the background, we find their typical amplitudes are comparable.With traditional electromagnetic observations, there has also been a dearth of confirmed detections of MBH binary systems. We use our binaries, combined with models of emission from accreting MBH systems, to make predictions for the occurrence rate of systems observable using photometric, periodic-variability surveys. These variables should be detectable in

  5. The false alarm at Forsmark March 6th 1986

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hultaaker, Oe.

    1986-01-01

    118 households were interviewed by telephone. Additional interviews were made with the representatives of the nuclear plant, county alarming center, Radio Uppland and the authorities in question. Six out of ten households heard the false alarm. Less than one out of twenty believed that it was an alarm caused by real danger and seven out of ten think that there will be more false alarms. (G.B.)

  6. The relationship between DRM and misinformation false memories

    OpenAIRE

    Zhu, B; Chen, C; Loftus, EF; Lin, C; Dong, Q

    2013-01-01

    This research investigated the relationship between false memories induced by two different paradigms (misinformation and Deese-Roediger-McDermott [DRM]). The misinformation effect refers to the phenomenon that a person's recollection of a witnessed event can be altered after exposure to misleading information about the event. DRM false memory represents the intrusion of words that are semantically related but not actually presented in the study session. Subjects (N = 432) completed both misi...

  7. False memories in highly superior autobiographical memory individuals

    OpenAIRE

    Patihis, Lawrence; Frenda, Steven J.; LePort, Aurora K. R.; Petersen, Nicole; Nichols, Rebecca M.; Stark, Craig E. L.; McGaugh, James L.; Loftus, Elizabeth F.

    2013-01-01

    The recent identification of highly superior autobiographical memory (HSAM) raised the possibility that there may be individuals who are immune to memory distortions. We measured HSAM participants' and age- and sex-matched controls' susceptibility to false memories using several research paradigms. HSAM participants and controls were both susceptible to false recognition of nonpresented critical lure words in an associative word-list task. In a misinformation task, HSAM participants showed hi...

  8. Discrete emotion-congruent false memories in the DRM paradigm

    OpenAIRE

    Bland, C.; Howe, M. L.; Knott, L.

    2016-01-01

    Research has shown that false memory production is enhanced for material that is emotionally congruent with the mood of the participant at the time of encoding. So far this research has only examined the influence of generic negative affective mood states and generic negative stimuli on false memory production. In addition, much of the research is limited as it focuses on valence and arousal dimensions, and fails to take into account the more comprehensive nature of emotions. The current stud...

  9. Is it wise to leave some false targets unprotected?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levitin, Gregory; Hausken, Kjell

    2013-01-01

    The paper considers a system consisting of genuine elements and false targets that cannot be distinguished by the attacker's observation. The false targets can be destroyed with much less effort than the genuine elements. To enhance the attack efficiency the attacker uses a double attack strategy in which it tries first to eliminate with optimal effort as many false targets as possible in the first attack and then distributes its entire remaining resource among all surviving targets in the second attack. It is assumed that the defender can protect some of the false targets whereas the attacker attacks all targets it can observe. In both attacks the attacking resource is distributed evenly among the attacked targets. The model for evaluating the system vulnerability in the double attack is suggested for parallel and series systems. This model considers the cases of perfect and imperfect detection of the targets destroyed in the first attack. The defense strategy is analyzed based on a two period minmax game. The methodology of optimal attack and defense strategies analysis is demonstrated. In is shown that under certain conditions (high contest intensity, scarce defense resource, low FT cost, high probability of wrong identification of destroyed targets by the attacker) the defender benefits from protecting a subset of the false targets. An algorithm for determining the optimal number of false targets that should be protected is suggested

  10. Effects of false yam tuber meals and charcoal on broiler chicken ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The authors investigated the effects of replacing a portion of a commercial broiler feed with false yam tuber meals on broiler growth performance, feed conversion rate (FCR) and blood parameters. Furthermore, wood charcoal was added at various levels to the meals to explore their potential to attenuate toxic effects.

  11. Adaptive Memory: Survival Processing Increases Both True and False Memory in Adults and Children

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otgaar, Henry; Smeets, Tom

    2010-01-01

    Research has shown that processing information in a survival context can enhance the information's memorability. The current study examined whether survival processing can also decrease the susceptibility to false memories and whether the survival advantage can be found in children. In Experiment 1, adults rated semantically related words in a…

  12. False Negative Fine Needle Aspiration Biopsy Results in Primary Thyroid Lymphoma

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, In Joong; Kim, Eun Kyung; Koh, Myoung Ju; Kwak, Jin Young; Moon, Hee Jung [Yonsei University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-06-15

    Ultrasonography-guided fine needle aspiration biopsy (US-FNA) is one of the methods used to diagnose thyroid lymphoma, but it has a relatively high false-negative rate. The authors report a case of a primary thyroid lymphoma associated with underlying lymphocytic thyroiditis that was initially misdiagnosed as lymphocytic thyroiditis based on US-FNA findings

  13. Multicultural Differences in Women's Expectations of Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Marianne F

    2016-01-01

    This review surveyed qualitative and quantitative studies to explore the expectations around birth that are held by women from different cultures. These studies are grouped according to expectations of personal control expectations of support from partner/others/family; expectations of carel behavior from providers such as nurses, doctors, and/or midwives; expectations about the health of the baby; and expectations about pain in childbirth. Discussed are the findings and the role that Western culture in medicine, power and privilege are noted in providing care to these women.

  14. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. G. van den Berg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

  16. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  17. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  18. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  19. A critical reappraisal of false negative sentinel lymph node biopsy in melanoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manca, G.; Mazzarri, S.; Boni, G.; Chiacchio, S.; Tredici, M.; Duce, V.; Tardelli, E.; Volterrani, D.; Mariani, G.; Romanini, A.; Rubello, D.

    2014-01-01

    Lymphatic mapping and sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) have completely changed the clinical management of cutaneous melanoma. This procedure has been accepted worldwide as a recognized method for nodal staging. SLNB is able to accurately determine nodal basin status, providing the most useful prognostic information. However, SLNB is not a perfect diagnostic test. Several large-scale studies have reported a relatively high false-negative rate (5.6-21%), correctly defined as the proportion of false-negative results with respect to the total number of “actual” positive lymph nodes. The main purpose of this review is to address the technical issues that nuclear physicians, surgeons, and pathologists should carefully consider to improve the accuracy of SLNB by minimizing its false-negative rate. In particular, SPECT/CT imaging has demonstrated to be able to identify a greater number of sentinel lymph nodes (SLNs) than those found by planar lymphoscintigraphy. Furthermore, a unique definition in the international guidelines is missing for the operational identification of SLNs, which may be partly responsible for this relatively high false-negative rate of SLNB. Therefore, it is recommended for the scientific community to agree on the radioactive counting rate threshold so that the surgeon can be better radioguided to detect all the lymph nodes which are most likely to harbor metastases. Another possible source of error may be linked to the examination of the harvested SLNs by conventional histopathological methods. A more careful and extensive SLN analysis (e.g. molecular analysis by RT-PCR) is able to find more positive nodes, so that the false-negative rate is reduced. Older age at diagnosis, deeper lesions, histologic ulceration, head-neck anatomical location of primary lesions are the clinical factors associated with false-negative SLNBs in melanoma patients. There is still much controversy about the clinical significance of a false-negative SLNB on the

  20. Accounting for False Positive HIV Tests: Is Visceral Leishmaniasis Responsible?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shanks, Leslie; Ritmeijer, Koert; Piriou, Erwan; Siddiqui, M Ruby; Kliescikova, Jarmila; Pearce, Neil; Ariti, Cono; Muluneh, Libsework; Masiga, Johnson; Abebe, Almaz

    2015-01-01

    Co-infection with HIV and visceral leishmaniasis is an important consideration in treatment of either disease in endemic areas. Diagnosis of HIV in resource-limited settings relies on rapid diagnostic tests used together in an algorithm. A limitation of the HIV diagnostic algorithm is that it is vulnerable to falsely positive reactions due to cross reactivity. It has been postulated that visceral leishmaniasis (VL) infection can increase this risk of false positive HIV results. This cross sectional study compared the risk of false positive HIV results in VL patients with non-VL individuals. Participants were recruited from 2 sites in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian algorithm of a tiebreaker using 3 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) was used to test for HIV. The gold standard test was the Western Blot, with indeterminate results resolved by PCR testing. Every RDT screen positive individual was included for testing with the gold standard along with 10% of all negatives. The final analysis included 89 VL and 405 non-VL patients. HIV prevalence was found to be 12.8% (47/ 367) in the VL group compared to 7.9% (200/2526) in the non-VL group. The RDT algorithm in the VL group yielded 47 positives, 4 false positives, and 38 negatives. The same algorithm for those without VL had 200 positives, 14 false positives, and 191 negatives. Specificity and positive predictive value for the group with VL was less than the non-VL group; however, the difference was not found to be significant (p = 0.52 and p = 0.76, respectively). The test algorithm yielded a high number of HIV false positive results. However, we were unable to demonstrate a significant difference between groups with and without VL disease. This suggests that the presence of endemic visceral leishmaniasis alone cannot account for the high number of false positive HIV results in our study.

  1. Accounting for False Positive HIV Tests: Is Visceral Leishmaniasis Responsible?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leslie Shanks

    Full Text Available Co-infection with HIV and visceral leishmaniasis is an important consideration in treatment of either disease in endemic areas. Diagnosis of HIV in resource-limited settings relies on rapid diagnostic tests used together in an algorithm. A limitation of the HIV diagnostic algorithm is that it is vulnerable to falsely positive reactions due to cross reactivity. It has been postulated that visceral leishmaniasis (VL infection can increase this risk of false positive HIV results. This cross sectional study compared the risk of false positive HIV results in VL patients with non-VL individuals.Participants were recruited from 2 sites in Ethiopia. The Ethiopian algorithm of a tiebreaker using 3 rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs was used to test for HIV. The gold standard test was the Western Blot, with indeterminate results resolved by PCR testing. Every RDT screen positive individual was included for testing with the gold standard along with 10% of all negatives. The final analysis included 89 VL and 405 non-VL patients. HIV prevalence was found to be 12.8% (47/ 367 in the VL group compared to 7.9% (200/2526 in the non-VL group. The RDT algorithm in the VL group yielded 47 positives, 4 false positives, and 38 negatives. The same algorithm for those without VL had 200 positives, 14 false positives, and 191 negatives. Specificity and positive predictive value for the group with VL was less than the non-VL group; however, the difference was not found to be significant (p = 0.52 and p = 0.76, respectively.The test algorithm yielded a high number of HIV false positive results. However, we were unable to demonstrate a significant difference between groups with and without VL disease. This suggests that the presence of endemic visceral leishmaniasis alone cannot account for the high number of false positive HIV results in our study.

  2. Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    situation, their purchasing attitudes, and their expectations about the macroeconomy. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties and those with pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, income developments, or unemployment have a stronger upward bias than other households. However...

  3. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  4. False alarm reduction in BSN-based cardiac monitoring using signal quality and activity type information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanantong, Tanatorn; Nantajeewarawat, Ekawit; Thiemjarus, Surapa

    2015-02-09

    False alarms in cardiac monitoring affect the quality of medical care, impacting on both patients and healthcare providers. In continuous cardiac monitoring using wireless Body Sensor Networks (BSNs), the quality of ECG signals can be deteriorated owing to several factors, e.g., noises, low battery power, and network transmission problems, often resulting in high false alarm rates. In addition, body movements occurring from activities of daily living (ADLs) can also create false alarms. This paper presents a two-phase framework for false arrhythmia alarm reduction in continuous cardiac monitoring, using signals from an ECG sensor and a 3D accelerometer. In the first phase, classification models constructed using machine learning algorithms are used for labeling input signals. ECG signals are labeled with heartbeat types and signal quality levels, while 3D acceleration signals are labeled with ADL types. In the second phase, a rule-based expert system is used for combining classification results in order to determine whether arrhythmia alarms should be accepted or suppressed. The proposed framework was validated on datasets acquired using BSNs and the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. For the BSN dataset, acceleration and ECG signals were collected from 10 young and 10 elderly subjects while they were performing ADLs. The framework reduced the false alarm rate from 9.58% to 1.43% in our experimental study, showing that it can potentially assist physicians in diagnosing a vast amount of data acquired from wireless sensors and enhance the performance of continuous cardiac monitoring.

  5. Undermining belief in false memories leads to less efficient problem-solving behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jianqin; Otgaar, Henry; Howe, Mark L; Smeets, Tom; Merckelbach, Harald; Nahouli, Zacharia

    2017-08-01

    Memories of events for which the belief in the occurrence of those events is undermined, but recollection is retained, are called nonbelieved memories (NBMs). The present experiments examined the effects of NBMs on subsequent problem-solving behaviour. In Experiment 1, we challenged participants' beliefs in their memories and examined whether NBMs affected subsequent solution rates on insight-based problems. True and false memories were elicited using the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm. Then participants' belief in true and false memories was challenged by telling them the item had not been presented. We found that when the challenge led to undermining belief in false memories, fewer problems were solved than when belief was not challenged. In Experiment 2, a similar procedure was used except that some participants solved the problems one week rather than immediately after the feedback. Again, our results showed that undermining belief in false memories resulted in lower problem solution rates. These findings suggest that for false memories, belief is an important agent in whether memories serve as effective primes for immediate and delayed problem-solving.

  6. False Alarm Reduction in BSN-Based Cardiac Monitoring Using Signal Quality and Activity Type Information

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanatorn Tanantong

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available False alarms in cardiac monitoring affect the quality of medical care, impacting on both patients and healthcare providers. In continuous cardiac monitoring using wireless Body Sensor Networks (BSNs, the quality of ECG signals can be deteriorated owing to several factors, e.g., noises, low battery power, and network transmission problems, often resulting in high false alarm rates. In addition, body movements occurring from activities of daily living (ADLs can also create false alarms. This paper presents a two-phase framework for false arrhythmia alarm reduction in continuous cardiac monitoring, using signals from an ECG sensor and a 3D accelerometer. In the first phase, classification models constructed using machine learning algorithms are used for labeling input signals. ECG signals are labeled with heartbeat types and signal quality levels, while 3D acceleration signals are labeled with ADL types. In the second phase, a rule-based expert system is used for combining classification results in order to determine whether arrhythmia alarms should be accepted or suppressed. The proposed framework was validated on datasets acquired using BSNs and the MIT-BIH arrhythmia database. For the BSN dataset, acceleration and ECG signals were collected from 10 young and 10 elderly subjects while they were performing ADLs. The framework reduced the false alarm rate from 9.58% to 1.43% in our experimental study, showing that it can potentially assist physicians in diagnosing a vast amount of data acquired from wireless sensors and enhance the performance of continuous cardiac monitoring.

  7. The effect of cognitive load on hemispheric asymmetries in true and false memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tat, Michael J; Azuma, Tamiko

    2016-01-01

    Studies examining hemispheric asymmetries in false memory have shown that the right hemisphere (RH) is more susceptible to false memories compared to the left hemisphere (LH). Theories suggest that hemispheric asymmetries in true and false memory may be due to differences in representational coding and the use of top-down mechanisms in each hemisphere. In the current study, the Deese-Roediger-McDermott false memory paradigm was used in conjunction with divided visual field presentation to examine the role of top-down mechanisms in hemispheric asymmetries of true and false memory. In Experiment 1, participants studied lists of related words while completing secondary cognitive load tasks. In Experiment 2, the secondary tasks were administered during memory retrieval instead of memory encoding. Results revealed that cognitive loads imposed during the study phase influenced veridical memory in the LH more than the RH, but cognitive loads imposed during retrieval did not influence veridical memory in either hemisphere. Surprisingly, false memory rates were not influenced by cognitive loads and were higher in the LH. These data provide evidence that, at least for veridical memory, top-down control mechanisms are used more readily for the encoding of information into memory in the LH compared to the RH.

  8. A mega-analysis of memory reports from eight peer-reviewed false memory implantation studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scoboria, Alan; Wade, Kimberley A; Lindsay, D Stephen; Azad, Tanjeem; Strange, Deryn; Ost, James; Hyman, Ira E

    2017-02-01

    Understanding that suggestive practices can promote false beliefs and false memories for childhood events is important in many settings (e.g., psychotherapeutic, medical, and legal). The generalisability of findings from memory implantation studies has been questioned due to variability in estimates across studies. Such variability is partly due to false memories having been operationalised differently across studies and to differences in memory induction techniques. We explored ways of defining false memory based on memory science and developed a reliable coding system that we applied to reports from eight published implantation studies (N = 423). Independent raters coded transcripts using seven criteria: accepting the suggestion, elaboration beyond the suggestion, imagery, coherence, emotion, memory statements, and not rejecting the suggestion. Using this scheme, 30.4% of cases were classified as false memories and another 23% were classified as having accepted the event to some degree. When the suggestion included self-relevant information, an imagination procedure, and was not accompanied by a photo depicting the event, the memory formation rate was 46.1%. Our research demonstrates a useful procedure for systematically combining data that are not amenable to meta-analysis, and provides the most valid estimate of false memory formation and associated moderating factors within the implantation literature to date.

  9. Emotional content enhances true but not false memory for categorized stimuli.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Hae-Yoon; Kensinger, Elizabeth A; Rajaram, Suparna

    2013-04-01

    Past research has shown that emotion enhances true memory, but that emotion can either increase or decrease false memory. Two theoretical possibilities-the distinctiveness of emotional stimuli and the conceptual relatedness of emotional content-have been implicated as being responsible for influencing both true and false memory for emotional content. In the present study, we sought to identify the mechanisms that underlie these mixed findings by equating the thematic relatedness of the study materials across each type of valence used (negative, positive, or neutral). In three experiments, categorically bound stimuli (e.g., funeral, pets, and office items) were used for this purpose. When the encoding task required the processing of thematic relatedness, a significant true-memory enhancement for emotional content emerged in recognition memory, but no emotional boost to false memory (exp. 1). This pattern persisted for true memory with a longer retention interval between study and test (24 h), and false recognition was reduced for emotional items (exp. 2). Finally, better recognition memory for emotional items once again emerged when the encoding task (arousal ratings) required the processing of the emotional aspect of the study items, with no emotional boost to false recognition (EXP. 3). Together, these findings suggest that when emotional and neutral stimuli are equivalently high in thematic relatedness, emotion continues to improve true memory, but it does not override other types of grouping to increase false memory.

  10. Accurate decisions in an uncertain world: collective cognition increases true positives while decreasing false positives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, Max; Kurvers, Ralf H J M; Ward, Ashley J W; Krause, Stefan; Krause, Jens

    2013-04-07

    In a wide range of contexts, including predator avoidance, medical decision-making and security screening, decision accuracy is fundamentally constrained by the trade-off between true and false positives. Increased true positives are possible only at the cost of increased false positives; conversely, decreased false positives are associated with decreased true positives. We use an integrated theoretical and experimental approach to show that a group of decision-makers can overcome this basic limitation. Using a mathematical model, we show that a simple quorum decision rule enables individuals in groups to simultaneously increase true positives and decrease false positives. The results from a predator-detection experiment that we performed with humans are in line with these predictions: (i) after observing the choices of the other group members, individuals both increase true positives and decrease false positives, (ii) this effect gets stronger as group size increases, (iii) individuals use a quorum threshold set between the average true- and false-positive rates of the other group members, and (iv) individuals adjust their quorum adaptively to the performance of the group. Our results have broad implications for our understanding of the ecology and evolution of group-living animals and lend themselves for applications in the human domain such as the design of improved screening methods in medical, forensic, security and business applications.

  11. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  12. Easy and Informative: Using Confidence-Weighted True-False Items for Knowledge Tests in Psychology Courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dutke, Stephan; Barenberg, Jonathan

    2015-01-01

    We introduce a specific type of item for knowledge tests, confidence-weighted true-false (CTF) items, and review experiences of its application in psychology courses. A CTF item is a statement about the learning content to which students respond whether the statement is true or false, and they rate their confidence level. Previous studies using…

  13. Female False Positive Exercise Stress ECG Testing - Fact Verses Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitzgerald, Benjamin T; Scalia, William M; Scalia, Gregory M

    2018-03-07

    Exercise stress testing is a well validated cardiovascular investigation. Accuracy for treadmill stress electrocardiograph (ECG) testing has been documented at 60%. False positive stress ECGs (exercise ECG changes with non-obstructive disease on anatomical testing) are common, especially in women, limiting the effectiveness of the test. This study investigates the incidence and predictors of false positive stress ECG findings, referenced against stress echocardiography (SE) as a standard. Stress echocardiography was performed using the Bruce treadmill protocol. False positive stress ECG tests were defined as greater than 1mm of ST depression on ECG during exertion, without pain, with a normal SE. Potential causes for false positive tests were recorded before the test. Three thousand consecutive negative stress echocardiograms (1036 females, 34.5%) were analysed (age 59+/-14 years. False positive (F+) stress ECGs were documented in 565/3000 tests (18.8%). F+ stress ECGs were equally prevalent in females (194/1036, 18.7%) and males (371/1964, 18.9%, p=0.85 for the difference). Potential causes (hypertension, left ventricular hypertrophy, known coronary disease, arrhythmia, diabetes mellitus, valvular heart disease) were recorded in 36/194 (18.6%) of the female F+ ECG tests and 249/371 (68.2%) of the male F+ ECG tests (preinforce the value of stress imaging, particularly in women. Copyright © 2018 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). All rights reserved.

  14. Sleep enhances false memories depending on general memory performance.

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    Diekelmann, Susanne; Born, Jan; Wagner, Ullrich

    2010-04-02

    Memory is subject to dynamic changes, sometimes giving rise to the formation of false memories due to biased processes of consolidation or retrieval. Sleep is known to benefit memory consolidation through an active reorganization of representations whereas acute sleep deprivation impairs retrieval functions. Here, we investigated whether sleep after learning and sleep deprivation at retrieval enhance the generation of false memories in a free recall test. According to the Deese, Roediger, McDermott (DRM) false memory paradigm, subjects learned lists of semantically associated words (e.g., "night", "dark", "coal", etc.), lacking the strongest common associate or theme word (here: "black"). Free recall was tested after 9h following a night of sleep, a night of wakefulness (sleep deprivation) or daytime wakefulness. Compared with memory performance after a retention period of daytime wakefulness, both post-learning nocturnal sleep as well as acute sleep deprivation at retrieval significantly enhanced false recall of theme words. However, these effects were only observed in subjects with low general memory performance. These data point to two different ways in which sleep affects false memory generation through semantic generalization: one acts during consolidation on the memory trace per se, presumably by active reorganization of the trace in the post-learning sleep period. The other is related to the recovery function of sleep and affects cognitive control processes of retrieval. Both effects are unmasked when the material is relatively weakly encoded. Crown Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Sleep reduces false memory in healthy older adults.

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    Lo, June C; Sim, Sam K Y; Chee, Michael W L

    2014-04-01

    To investigate the effects of post-learning sleep and sleep architecture on false memory in healthy older adults. Balanced, crossover design. False memory was induced using the Deese-Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm and assessed following nocturnal sleep and following a period of daytime wakefulness. Post-learning sleep structure was evaluated using polysomnography (PSG). Sleep research laboratory. Fourteen healthy older adults from the Singapore-Longitudinal Aging Brain Study (mean age ± standard deviation = 66.6 ± 4.1 y; 7 males). At encoding, participants studied lists of words that were semantically related to non-presented critical lures. At retrieval, they made "remember"/"know" and "new" judgments. Compared to wakefulness, post-learning sleep was associated with reduced "remember" responses, but not "know" responses to critical lures. In contrast, there were no significant differences in the veridical recognition of studied words, false recognition of unrelated distractors, discriminability, or response bias between the sleep and the wake conditions. More post-learning slow wave sleep was associated with greater reduction in false memory. In healthy older adults, sleep facilitates the reduction in false memory without affecting veridical memory. This benefit correlates with the amount of slow wave sleep in the post-learning sleep episode.

  16. Lateralised sleep spindles relate to false memory generation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, John J; Monaghan, Padraic

    2017-12-01

    Sleep is known to enhance false memories: After presenting participants with lists of semantically related words, sleeping before recalling these words results in a greater acceptance of unseen "lure" words related in theme to previously seen words. Furthermore, the right hemisphere (RH) seems to be more prone to false memories than the left hemisphere (LH). In the current study, we investigated the sleep architecture associated with these false memory and lateralisation effects in a nap study. Participants viewed lists of related words, then stayed awake or slept for approximately 90min, and were then tested for recognition of previously seen-old, unseen-new, or unseen-lure words presented either to the LH or RH. Sleep increased acceptance of unseen-lure words as previously seen compared to the wake group, particularly for RH presentations of word lists. RH lateralised stage 2 sleep spindle density relative to the LH correlated with this increase in false memories, suggesting that RH sleep spindles enhanced false memories in the RH. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. False memory and importance: can we prioritize encoding without consequence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bui, Dung C; Friedman, Michael C; McDonough, Ian M; Castel, Alan D

    2013-10-01

    Given the large amount of information that we encounter, we often must prioritize what information we attempt to remember. Although critical for everyday functioning, relatively little research has focused on how people prioritize the encoding of information. Recent research has shown that people can and do selectively remember information assigned with higher, relative to lower, importance. However, the mechanisms underlying this prioritization process and the consequences of these processes are still not well understood. In the present study, we sought to better understand these prioritization processes and whether implementing these processes comes at the cost of memory accuracy, by increasing false memories. We used a modified form of the Deese/Roediger-McDermott (DRM) paradigm, in which participants studied DRM lists, with each list paired with low, medium, or high point values. In Experiment 1, encoding higher values led to more false memories than did encoding lower values, possibly because prioritizing information enhanced relational processing among high-value words. In Experiment 2, disrupting relational processing selectively reduced false memories for high-value words. Finally, in Experiment 3, facilitating relational processing selectively increased false memories for low-value words. These findings suggest that while prioritizing information can enhance true memory, this process concomitantly increases false memories. Furthermore, the mechanism underlying these prioritization processes depends on the ability to successfully engage in relational processing. Thus, how we prioritize the encoding of incoming information can come at a cost in terms of accurate memory.

  18. Emotion and false memory: The context-content paradox.

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    Bookbinder, S H; Brainerd, C J

    2016-12-01

    False memories are influenced by a variety of factors, but emotion is a variable of special significance, for theoretical and practical reasons. Interestingly, emotion's effects on false memory depend on whether it is embedded in the content of to-be-remembered events or in our moods, where mood is an aspect of the context in which events are encoded. We sketch the theoretical basis for this content-context dissociation and then review accumulated evidence that content and context effects are indeed different. Paradoxically, we find that in experiments on spontaneous and implanted false memories, negatively valenced content foments distortion, but negatively valenced moods protect against it. In addition, correlational data show that enduring negative natural moods (e.g., depression) foment false memory. Current opponent-process models of false memory, such as fuzzy-trace theory, are able to explain the content-context dissociation: Variations in emotional content primarily affect memory for the gist of events, whereas variations in emotional context primarily affect memory for events' exact verbatim form. Important questions remain about how these effects are modulated by variations in memory tests and in arousal. Promising methods of tackling those questions are outlined, especially designs that separate the gist and verbatim influences of emotion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  19. False recollection of emotional pictures in Alzheimer's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallo, David A; Foster, Katherine T; Wong, Jessica T; Bennett, David A

    2010-10-01

    Alzheimer's Disease (AD) can reduce the effects of emotional content on memory for studied pictures, but less is known about false memory. In healthy adults, emotionally arousing pictures can be more susceptible to false memory effects than neutral pictures, potentially because emotional pictures share conceptual similarities that cause memory confusions. We investigated these effects in AD patients and healthy controls. Participants studied pictures and their verbal labels, and then picture recollection was tested using verbal labels as retrieval cues. Some of the test labels had been associated with a picture at study, whereas other had not. On this picture recollection test, we found that both AD patients and controls incorrectly endorsed some of the test labels that had not been studied with pictures. These errors were associated with medium to high levels of confidence, indicating some degree of false recollection. Critically, these false recollection judgments were greater for emotional compared to neutral items, especially for positively valenced items, in both AD patients and controls. Dysfunction of the amygdala and hippocampus in early AD may impair recollection, but AD did not disrupt the effect of emotion on false recollection judgments. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Discrete emotion-congruent false memories in the DRM paradigm.

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    Bland, Cassandra E; Howe, Mark L; Knott, Lauren

    2016-08-01

    Research has shown that false-memory production is enhanced for material that is emotionally congruent with the mood of the participant at the time of encoding. So far this research has only been conducted to examine the influence of generic negative affective mood states and generic negative stimuli on false-memory production. In addition, much of the research is limited as it focuses on valence and arousal dimensions, and fails to take into account the more comprehensive nature of emotions. The current study demonstrates that this effect goes beyond general negative or positive moods and acts at a more discrete emotional level. Participants underwent a standard emotion-induction procedure before listening to negative emotional or neutral associative word lists. The emotions induced, negative word lists, and associated nonpresented critical lures, were related to either fear or anger, 2 negative valence emotions that are also both high in arousal. Results showed that when valence and arousal are controlled for, false memories are more likely to be produced for discrete emotionally congruent compared with incongruent materials. These results support spreading activation theories of false remembering and add to our understanding of the adaptive nature of false-memory production. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).