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Sample records for expected event rate

  1. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  2. On the Expected Value of Fuzzy Events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klement, E.P.; Mesiar, Radko

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 23, Supplement 1 (2015), s. 57-74 ISSN 0218-4885 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : expected value * fuzzy event * Choquet integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/mesiar-0452568.pdf

  3. Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; D'Agostino, Ralph B

    2017-12-10

    The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  5. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  6. Sex differences in common pain events: expectations and anchors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Dannecker, Erin A; Brown, Jennifer L; Jump, Rebecca L; Price, Donald D

    2003-02-01

    This study examined (1) the effects of sex-related stereotypes in commonly experienced, potentially painful events and (2) differences in events representing the worst pain sensation imaginable for the typical woman and the typical man. Undergraduates (63 women and 54 men) completed the Situational Pain Questionnaire as the typical woman would and as the typical man would. The participants also answered 2 open-ended questions regarding the worst pain sensation imaginable for the typical woman and for the typical man. Our findings demonstrate that sex-related stereotypes extend to common pain events and that men and women expected that men would report less pain for common pain events than women. This suggests a gender-role related learning history that is relatively consistent for both sexes. The worst pain sensation imaginable was perceived to be different for typical men and women. Both sexes chose injury as the class of events men would find most painful and childbirth and menstrual pain as the class of events women would find most painful. Implications of this finding for common pain scaling approaches are discussed. The results of this study were obtained from a fairly uniform group of undergraduate men and women, which may limit the generalizability of our findings.

  7. Young Adults' Fertility Expectations and Events: Associations with College Enrollment and Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raley, R. Kelly; Kim, Yujin; Daniels, Kimberly

    2012-01-01

    The analyses described in this article investigated the association between adolescent fertility expectations and college enrollment (N = 7,838). They also explored the potential impact of fertility expectations and events on college persistence among 4-year (n = 2,605) and 2-year (n = 1,962) college students. The analysis, which used data from…

  8. Expected reward modulates encoding-related theta activity before an event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Matthias J; Watrous, Andrew J; Ekstrom, Arne D; Ranganath, Charan; Otten, Leun J

    2013-01-01

    Oscillatory brain activity in the theta frequency range (4-8 Hz) before the onset of an event has been shown to affect the likelihood of successfully encoding the event into memory. Recent work has also indicated that frontal theta activity might be modulated by reward, but it is not clear how reward expectancy, anticipatory theta activity, and memory formation might be related. Here, we used scalp electroencephalography (EEG) to assess the relationship between these factors. EEG was recorded from healthy adults while they memorized a series of words. Each word was preceded by a cue that indicated whether a high or low monetary reward would be earned if the word was successfully remembered in a later recognition test. Frontal theta power between the presentation of the reward cue and the onset of a word was predictive of later memory for the word, but only in the high reward condition. No theta differences were observed before word onset following low reward cues. The magnitude of prestimulus encoding-related theta activity in the high reward condition was correlated with the number of high reward words that were later confidently recognized. These findings provide strong evidence for a link between reward expectancy, theta activity, and memory encoding. Theta activity before event onset seems to be especially important for the encoding of motivationally significant stimuli. One possibility is that dopaminergic activity during reward anticipation mediates frontal theta activity related to memory. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Cobo, A.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events, including the following: historical background, procedures for event evaluation using PSA, use of PSA for event rating, current activities

  10. Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2009-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

  11. Automatic temporal expectancy: a high-density event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Mento

    Full Text Available How we compute time is not fully understood. Questions include whether an automatic brain mechanism is engaged in temporally regular environmental structure in order to anticipate events, and whether this can be dissociated from task-related processes, including response preparation, selection and execution. To investigate these issues, a passive temporal oddball task requiring neither time-based motor response nor explicit decision was specifically designed and delivered to participants during high-density, event-related potentials recording. Participants were presented with pairs of audiovisual stimuli (S1 and S2 interspersed with an Inter-Stimulus Interval (ISI that was manipulated according to an oddball probabilistic distribution. In the standard condition (70% of trials, the ISI lasted 1,500 ms, while in the two alternative, deviant conditions (15% each, it lasted 2,500 and 3,000 ms. The passive over-exposition to the standard ISI drove participants to automatically and progressively create an implicit temporal expectation of S2 onset, reflected by the time course of the Contingent Negative Variation response, which always peaked in correspondence to the point of S2 maximum expectation and afterwards inverted in polarity towards the baseline. Brain source analysis of S1- and ISI-related ERP activity revealed activation of sensorial cortical areas and the supplementary motor area (SMA, respectively. In particular, since the SMA time course synchronised with standard ISI, we suggest that this area is the major cortical generator of the temporal CNV reflecting an automatic, action-independent mechanism underlying temporal expectancy.

  12. INES rating of radiation protection related events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hort, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation, based on the draft Manual, a short review of the use of the INES rating of events concerning radiation protection is given, based on a new INES User's Manual edition. The presentation comprises a brief history of the scale development, general description of the scale and the main principles of the INES rating. Several examples of the use of the scale for radiation protection related events are mentioned. In the presentation, the term 'radiation protection related events' is used for radiation source and transport related events outside the nuclear installations. (authors)

  13. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  14. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  15. Collaborative Event-Driven Coverage and Rate Allocation for Event Miss-Ratio Assurances in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozgur Sanli H

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks are often required to provide event miss-ratio assurance for a given event type. To meet such assurances along with minimum energy consumption, this paper shows how a node's activation and rate assignment is dependent on its distance to event sources, and proposes a practical coverage and rate allocation (CORA protocol to exploit this dependency in realistic environments. Both uniform event distribution and nonuniform event distribution are considered and the notion of ideal correlation distance around a clusterhead is introduced for on-duty node selection. In correlation distance guided CORA, rate assignment assists coverage scheduling by determining which nodes should be activated for minimizing data redundancy in transmission. Coverage scheduling assists rate assignment by controlling the amount of overlap among sensing regions of neighboring nodes, thereby providing sufficient data correlation for rate assignment. Extensive simulation results show that CORA meets the required event miss-ratios in realistic environments. CORA's joint coverage scheduling and rate allocation reduce the total energy expenditure by 85%, average battery energy consumption by 25%, and the overhead of source coding up to 90% as compared to existing rate allocation techniques.

  16. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young-Xu, Yinong; Chan, K Arnold

    2008-08-19

    The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  17. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan K Arnold

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. Methods We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. Results In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. Conclusion The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  18. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  19. Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures

  20. Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-31

    Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures.

  1. Reliability of the peer-review process for adverse event rating.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan J Forster

    Full Text Available Adverse events are poor patient outcomes caused by medical care. Their identification requires the peer-review of poor outcomes, which may be unreliable. Combining physician ratings might improve the accuracy of adverse event classification.To evaluate the variation in peer-reviewer ratings of adverse outcomes; determine the impact of this variation on estimates of reviewer accuracy; and determine the number of reviewers who judge an adverse event occurred that is required to ensure that the true probability of an adverse event exceeded 50%, 75% or 95%.Thirty physicians rated 319 case reports giving details of poor patient outcomes following hospital discharge. They rated whether medical management caused the outcome using a six-point ordinal scale. We conducted latent class analyses to estimate the prevalence of adverse events as well as the sensitivity and specificity of each reviewer. We used this model and Bayesian calculations to determine the probability that an adverse event truly occurred to each patient as function of their number of positive ratings.The overall median score on the 6-point ordinal scale was 3 (IQR 2,4 but the individual rater median score ranged from a minimum of 1 (in four reviewers to a maximum median score of 5. The overall percentage of cases rated as an adverse event was 39.7% (3798/9570. The median kappa for all pair-wise combinations of the 30 reviewers was 0.26 (IQR 0.16, 0.42; Min = -0.07, Max = 0.62. Reviewer sensitivity and specificity for adverse event classification ranged from 0.06 to 0.93 and 0.50 to 0.98, respectively. The estimated prevalence of adverse events using a latent class model with a common sensitivity and specificity for all reviewers (0.64 and 0.83 respectively was 47.6%. For patients to have a 95% chance of truly having an adverse event, at least 3 of 3 reviewers are required to deem the outcome an adverse event.Adverse event classification is unreliable. To be certain that a case

  2. On the Mass and Luminosity Functions of Tidal Disruption Flares: Rate Suppression due to Black Hole Event Horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Velzen, S.

    2018-01-01

    The tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole is expected to yield a luminous flare of thermal emission. About two dozen of these stellar tidal disruption flares (TDFs) may have been detected in optical transient surveys. However, explaining the observed properties of these events within the tidal disruption paradigm is not yet possible. This theoretical ambiguity has led some authors to suggest that optical TDFs are due to a different process, such as a nuclear supernova or accretion disk instabilities. Here we present a test of a fundamental prediction of the tidal disruption event scenario: a suppression of the flare rate due to the direct capture of stars by the black hole. Using a recently compiled sample of candidate TDFs with black hole mass measurements, plus a careful treatment of selection effects in this flux-limited sample, we confirm that the dearth of observed TDFs from high-mass black holes is statistically significant. All the TDF impostor models we consider fail to explain the observed mass function; the only scenario that fits the data is a suppression of the rate due to direct captures. We find that this suppression can explain the low volumetric rate of the luminous TDF candidate ASASSN-15lh, thus supporting the hypothesis that this flare belongs to the TDF family. Our work is the first to present the optical TDF luminosity function. A steep power law is required to explain the observed rest-frame g-band luminosity, {dN}/{{dL}}g\\propto {L}g-2.5. The mean event rate of the flares in our sample is ≈ 1× {10}-4 galaxy‑1 yr‑1, consistent with the theoretically expected tidal disruption rate.

  3. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  4. Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

    2003-06-01

    The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

  5. Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk, J.M.; Knot, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the

  6. Event rates to be expected at PEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, B.

    1988-01-01

    As a guide for planning experiments at PEP, some estimates are given of average luminosity, charged and neutral particle yields vs. momentum, QED test capabilities, and weak interaction effects. 2 figs

  7. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  8. Interpretation of unusual events from CERN and DESY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.J.; Jaffee, R.L.; Rosner, J.L.

    1984-01-01

    Several classes of interesting and unusual events from the Sp-barpS and from PETRA are studied with two purposes in mind. Firstly, varieties of background within the standard SU(3)xSU(2)xU(1) model are described, together with estimates of the number of expected events. Secondly, a review of the recent explanations of the events involving new physics is given. Critical assessments of these proposals focus on the assumptions made, expected rates for the unusual events, and the ability to account for events of several categories

  9. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Impact of whole-genome duplication events on diversification rates in angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Jacob B; Soltis, Douglas E; Li, Zheng; Marx, Hannah E; Barker, Michael S; Tank, David C; Soltis, Pamela S

    2018-03-01

    Polyploidy or whole-genome duplication (WGD) pervades the evolutionary history of angiosperms. Despite extensive progress in our understanding of WGD, the role of these events in promoting diversification is still not well understood. We seek to clarify the possible association between WGD and diversification rates in flowering plants. Using a previously published phylogeny spanning all land plants (31,749 tips) and WGD events inferred from analyses of the 1000 Plants (1KP) transcriptome data, we analyzed the association of WGDs and diversification rates following numerous WGD events across the angiosperms. We used a stepwise AIC approach (MEDUSA), a Bayesian mixture model approach (BAMM), and state-dependent diversification analyses (MuSSE) to investigate patterns of diversification. Sister-clade comparisons were used to investigate species richness after WGDs. Based on the density of 1KP taxon sampling, 106 WGDs were unambiguously placed on the angiosperm phylogeny. We identified 334-530 shifts in diversification rates. We found that 61 WGD events were tightly linked to changes in diversification rates, and state-dependent diversification analyses indicated higher speciation rates for subsequent rounds of WGD. Additionally, 70 of 99 WGD events showed an increase in species richness compared to the sister clade. Forty-six of the 106 WGDs analyzed appear to be closely associated with upshifts in the rate of diversification in angiosperms. Shifts in diversification do not appear more likely than random within a four-node lag phase following a WGD; however, younger WGD events are more likely to be followed by an upshift in diversification than older WGD events. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

  11. Emotional expectations influence neural sensitivity to fearful faces in humans:An event-related potential study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The present study tested whether neural sensitivity to salient emotional facial expressions was influenced by emotional expectations induced by a cue that validly predicted the expression of a subsequently presented target face. Event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by fearful and neutral faces were recorded while participants performed a gender discrimination task under cued (‘expected’) and uncued (‘unexpected’) conditions. The behavioral results revealed that accuracy was lower for fearful compared with neutral faces in the unexpected condition, while accuracy was similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. ERP data revealed increased amplitudes in the P2 component and 200–250 ms interval for unexpected fearful versus neutral faces. By contrast, ERP responses were similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. These findings indicate that human neural sensitivity to fearful faces is modulated by emotional expectations. Although the neural system is sensitive to unpredictable emotionally salient stimuli, sensitivity to salient stimuli is reduced when these stimuli are predictable.

  12. Event Rates in Randomized Clinical Trials Evaluating Cardiovascular Interventions and Devices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoud, Karim D.; Lennon, Ryan J.; Holmes, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for evidence-based medicine. However, an accurate estimation of the event rate is crucial for their ability to test clinical hypotheses. Overestimation of event rates reduces the required sample size but can compromise the

  13. Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste

    2010-01-01

    A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

  14. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  15. Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants. 1988 - 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, John A.; Bower, Gordon R.

    2014-01-01

    Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates performance among plants and also provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants since each plant's low-power license date. The evaluation is based on the operating experience from fiscal year 1988 through 2013 as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience staff reviewed each event report since the last update to this report for the presence of valid scrams or reactor trips at power. To be included in the study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: includes an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), sequence of events starts when reactor is critical and at or above the point of adding heat, occurs at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and is reported by a licensee event report. This report displays occurrence rates (baseline frequencies) for the categories of initiating events that contribute to the NRC's Industry Trends Program. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. Initiators are plotted separately for initiating events with different occurrence rates for boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. p-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years.

  16. THE PRODUCTION RATE OF SN Ia EVENTS IN GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washabaugh, Pearce C.; Bregman, Joel N.

    2013-01-01

    In globular clusters, dynamical evolution produces luminous X-ray emitting binaries at a rate about 200 times greater than in the field. If globular clusters also produce SN Ia at a high rate, it would account for many of the SN Ia production in early-type galaxies and provide insight into their formation. Here we use archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of nearby galaxies that have hosted an SN Ia to examine the rate at which globular clusters produce these events. The location of the SN Ia is registered on an HST image obtained before the event or after the supernova (SN) faded. Of the 36 nearby galaxies examined, 21 had sufficiently good data to search for globular cluster hosts. None of the 21 SNe have a definite globular cluster counterpart, although there are some ambiguous cases. This places an upper limit to the enhancement rate of SN Ia production in globular clusters of about 42 at the 95% confidence level, which is an order of magnitude lower than the enhancement rate for luminous X-ray binaries. Even if all of the ambiguous cases are considered as having a globular cluster counterpart, the upper bound for the enhancement rate is 82 at the 95% confidence level, still a factor of several below that needed to account for half of the SN Ia events. Barring unforeseen selection effects, we conclude that globular clusters are not responsible for producing a significant fraction of the SN Ia events in early-type galaxies.

  17. Evaluation of misplaced event count rate using a scintillation camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagimoto, Shin-ichi; Tomomitsu, Tatsushi; Muranaka, Akira

    1985-01-01

    Misplaced event count rates were evaluated using an acryl scatter body of various thickness and a gamma camera. The count rate in the region of interest (ROI) within the camera view field, which was thought to represent part of the misplaced event count rate, increased as the thickness of the scatter body was increased to 5 cm, followed by a steep decline in the count rate. On the other hand, the ratio of the count rate in the ROI to the total count rate continuously increased as the thickness of the scatter body was increased. As the thickness of the scatter body was increased, the count rates increased, and the increments of increase were greater in the lower energy region of the photopeak than in the higher energy region. In ranges energy other than the photopeak, the influence of the scatter body on the count rate in the ROI was the greatest at 76 keV, which was the lowest energy we examined. (author)

  18. Impact of Formal Mentoring on Freshmen Expectations, Graduation Rates, and GPAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nancy C.; Heilmann, Sharon G.; Johnson, Adrianne; Taylor, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the expectations, graduation rates, and GPAs of participants (n = 113) in a formal mentorship program, "Freshmen Focus," at a small, rural Midwestern high school through the framework of organizational socialization theory (Van Maanen & Schein, 1977). Findings indicate freshmen students formed…

  19. Complexity rating of abnormal events and operator performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeivind Braarud, Per

    1998-01-01

    The complexity of the work situation during abnormal situations is a major topic in a discussion of safety aspects of Nuclear Power plants. An understanding of complexity and its impact on operator performance in abnormal situations is important. One way to enhance understanding is to look at the dimensions that constitute complexity for NPP operators, and how those dimensions can be measured. A further step is to study how dimensions of complexity of the event are related to performance of operators. One aspect of complexity is the operator 's subjective experience of given difficulties of the event. Another related aspect of complexity is subject matter experts ratings of the complexity of the event. A definition and a measure of this part of complexity are being investigated at the OECD Halden Reactor Project in Norway. This paper focus on the results from a study of simulated scenarios carried out in the Halden Man-Machine Laboratory, which is a full scope PWR simulator. Six crews of two licensed operators each performed in 16 scenarios (simulated events). Before the experiment subject matter experts rated the complexity of the scenarios, using a Complexity Profiling Questionnaire. The Complexity Profiling Questionnaire contains eight previously identified dimensions associated with complexity. After completing the scenarios the operators received a questionnaire containing 39 questions about perceived complexity. This questionnaire was used for development of a measure of subjective complexity. The results from the study indicated that Process experts' rating of scenario complexity, using the Complexity Profiling Questionnaire, were able to predict crew performance quite well. The results further indicated that a measure of subjective complexity could be developed that was related to crew performance. Subjective complexity was found to be related to subjective work load. (author)

  20. Rates for parallax-shifted microlensing events from ground-based observations of the galactic bulge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchalter, A.; Kamionkowski, M.

    1997-01-01

    The parallax effect in ground-based microlensing (ML) observations consists of a distortion to the standard ML light curve arising from the Earth's orbital motion. This can be used to partially remove the degeneracy among the system parameters in the event timescale, t 0 . In most cases, the resolution in current ML surveys is not accurate enough to observe this effect, but parallax could conceivably be detected with frequent follow-up observations of ML events in progress, providing the photometric errors are small enough. We calculate the expected fraction of ML events where the shape distortions will be observable by such follow-up observations, adopting Galactic models for the lens and source distributions that are consistent with observed microlensing timescale distributions. We study the dependence of the rates for parallax-shifted events on the frequency of follow-up observations and on the precision of the photometry. For example, we find that for hourly observations with typical photometric errors of 0.01 mag, 6% of events where the lens is in the bulge, and 31% of events where the lens is in the disk (or ∼10% of events overall), will give rise to a measurable parallax shift at the 95% confidence level. These fractions may be increased by improved photometric accuracy and increased sampling frequency. While long-duration events are favored, the surveys would be effective in picking out such distortions in events with timescales as low as t 0 ∼20 days. We study the dependence of these fractions on the assumed disk mass function and find that a higher parallax incidence is favored by mass functions with higher mean masses. Parallax measurements yield the reduced transverse speed, v, which gives both the relative transverse speed and lens mass as a function of distance. We give examples of the accuracies with which v may be measured in typical parallax events. (Abstract Truncated)

  1. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  2. Standard and Nonstandard Neutrino-Nucleus Reactions Cross Sections and Event Rates to Neutrino Detection Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Papoulias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore ν-nucleus processes from a nuclear theory point of view and obtain results with high confidence level based on accurate nuclear structure cross sections calculations. Besides cross sections, the present study includes simulated signals expected to be recorded by nuclear detectors and differential event rates as well as total number of events predicted to be measured. Our original cross sections calculations are focused on measurable rates for the standard model process, but we also perform calculations for various channels of the nonstandard neutrino-nucleus reactions and come out with promising results within the current upper limits of the corresponding exotic parameters. We concentrate on the possibility of detecting (i supernova neutrinos by using massive detectors like those of the GERDA and SuperCDMS dark matter experiments and (ii laboratory neutrinos produced near the spallation neutron source facilities (at Oak Ridge National Lab by the COHERENT experiment. Our nuclear calculations take advantage of the relevant experimental sensitivity and employ the severe bounds extracted for the exotic parameters entering the Lagrangians of various particle physics models and specifically those resulting from the charged lepton flavour violating μ-→e- experiments (Mu2e and COMET experiments.

  3. Low-Rate DDoS Attack Detection Using Expectation of Packet Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-rate Distributed Denial-of-Service (low-rate DDoS attacks are a new challenge to cyberspace, as the attackers send a large amount of attack packets similar to normal traffic, to throttle legitimate flows. In this paper, we propose a measurement—expectation of packet size—that is based on the distribution difference of the packet size to distinguish two typical low-rate DDoS attacks, the constant attack and the pulsing attack, from legitimate traffic. The experimental results, obtained using a series of real datasets with different times and different tolerance factors, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed measurement. In addition, extensive experiments are performed to show that the proposed measurement can detect the low-rate DDoS attacks not only in the short and long terms but also for low packet rates and high packet rates. Furthermore, the false-negative rates and the adjudication distance can be adjusted based on the detection sensitivity requirements.

  4. Organization of pulse-height analysis programs for high event rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, C E [Argonne National Lab., Ill. (USA)

    1976-09-01

    The ability of a pulse-height analysis program to handle high event rates can be enhanced by organizing it so as to minimize the time spent in interrupt housekeeping. Specifically, the routine that services the data-ready interrupt from the ADC should test whether another event is ready before performing the interrupt return.

  5. Gamma-ray dose rate increase at rainfall events and their air-mass origins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iyogi, Takashi; Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Inaba, Jiro

    2007-01-01

    The environmental γ-ray dose rate and precipitation rates were measured at our institute, in Rokkasho, Aomori, Japan. We analyzed 425 rainfall events in which the precipitation rate was over 0.5 mm from April through November during the years 2003 to 2005. Backward trajectories for 5 d starting from 1000 m above Rokkasho at the time of the maximum dose rate in a rainfall event, were calculated by using the HYSPLIT model of the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. The trajectories for 5 d were classified by visual inspection according to the passage areas; Pacific Ocean, Asian Continent and Japan Islands. The increase of cumulative environmental γ-ray dose during a rainfall event was plotted against the precipitation in the event, and their relationship was separately examined according to the air-mass passage area, i.e. origin of the air-mass. Our results showed that the origin of air-mass was an important factor affecting the increase of environmental γ-ray dose rate by rainfall. (author)

  6. The rate of adverse events during IV conscious sedation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwamburger, Nathan T; Hancock, Raymond H; Chong, Chol H; Hartup, Grant R; Vandewalle, Kraig S

    2012-01-01

    Conscious sedation has become an integral part of dentistry; it is often used to reduce anxiety or fear in some patients during oral surgery, periodontal surgery, implant placement, and general dentistry procedures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the frequency of adverse events during IV conscious sedation provided by credentialed general dentists and periodontists in the United States Air Force (USAF). Sedation clinical records (Air Force Form 1417) from calendar year 2009 were requested from all USAF bases. A total of 1,468 records were reviewed and 19 adverse events were noted in 17 patients. IV complication (infiltration) was the most common adverse event. The overall adverse event rate was 1.3 per 100 patients treated. The results of this study show that moderate sedation provided by general dentists and periodontists in the USAF has a low incidence of adverse events, and conscious sedation remains a viable option for providers for the reduction of anxiety in select patients.

  7. Expected Rates of Renewable Energy Sources in Meeting of Energy Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Taking the expected growth of the world’s population and the estimated technological development and increase in living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. On the basis of the actual production data of 380-400 EJ.year-1 in 2000 and data in publications, the author assumes the total energy demand to be 750-800 EJ.year-1 for 2030, 600-1,000 EJ.year-1 for 2050 and 900-3,600 EJ.year-1 for 2100. The author analyses the appearance of the different energy types in the history of mankind giving the specific heat content and heating value of the different fuels. The environmental advantages, disadvantages, technical and economic limits of application involved in the use of primary renewable energy sources are also dealt with. The analysis of the data in the different prognoses in publications gives the result that fossil fuels will meet 84-85 % of the total energy demand until 2030 in the foreseeable future. In 2050, the fossil rate may be 50-70 % and the rate of renewables may amount to 20-40 %. In 2100, the maximum fossil rate may be 40-50 % with a 30-60 % maximum rate of renewables. On the basis of the results of investigation, the general conclusion may be that the realistically exploitable amount of renewable energy sources is not so unlimitedly high as many suppose. Therefore, it is an illusion to expect that the replacement or substitution of mineral fuels and nuclear energy can be solved relying solely on renewable energies.

  8. Fast radio burst event rate counts - I. Interpreting the observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macquart, J.-P.; Ekers, R. D.

    2018-02-01

    The fluence distribution of the fast radio burst (FRB) population (the `source count' distribution, N (>F) ∝Fα), is a crucial diagnostic of its distance distribution, and hence the progenitor evolutionary history. We critically reanalyse current estimates of the FRB source count distribution. We demonstrate that the Lorimer burst (FRB 010724) is subject to discovery bias, and should be excluded from all statistical studies of the population. We re-examine the evidence for flat, α > -1, source count estimates based on the ratio of single-beam to multiple-beam detections with the Parkes multibeam receiver, and show that current data imply only a very weak constraint of α ≲ -1.3. A maximum-likelihood analysis applied to the portion of the Parkes FRB population detected above the observational completeness fluence of 2 Jy ms yields α = -2.6_{-1.3}^{+0.7 }. Uncertainties in the location of each FRB within the Parkes beam render estimates of the Parkes event rate uncertain in both normalizing survey area and the estimated post-beam-corrected completeness fluence; this uncertainty needs to be accounted for when comparing the event rate against event rates measured at other telescopes.

  9. Super-Eddington Accretion in Tidal Disruption Events: the Impact of Realistic Fallback Rates on Accretion Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Samantha; Coughlin, Eric R.; Nixon, Chris

    2018-04-01

    After the tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole, disrupted stellar debris can fall back to the hole at a rate significantly exceeding its Eddington limit. To understand how black hole mass affects the duration of super-Eddington accretion in tidal disruption events, we first run a suite of simulations of the disruption of a Solar-like star by a supermassive black hole of varying mass to directly measure the fallback rate onto the hole, and we compare these fallback rates to the analytic predictions of the "frozen-in" model. Then, adopting a Zero-Bernoulli Accretion flow as an analytic prescription for the accretion flow around the hole, we investigate how the accretion rate onto the black hole evolves with the more accurate fallback rates calculated from the simulations. We find that numerically-simulated fallback rates yield accretion rates onto the hole that can, depending on the black hole mass, be nearly an order of magnitude larger than those predicted by the frozen-in approximation. Our results place new limits on the maximum black hole mass for which super-Eddington accretion occurs in tidal disruption events.

  10. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Holger; Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

    2016-01-01

    A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition.

  11. The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

    2012-01-01

    Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

  12. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Cramer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs. Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73% in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p=0.03. For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%. The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants’ sociodemographic and health condition.

  13. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-10-19

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue-stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s(-1)) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations.

  14. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue–stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s−1) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations. PMID:24018716

  15. Evaluation of Life Events in Major Depression: Assessing Negative Emotional Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girz, Laura; Driver-Linn, Erin; Miller, Gregory A; Deldin, Patricia J

    2017-05-01

    Overly negative appraisals of negative life events characterize depression but patterns of emotion bias associated with life events in depression are not well understood. The goal of this paper is to determine under which situations emotional responses are stronger than expected given life events and which emotions are biased. Depressed (n = 16) and non-depressed (n = 14) participants (mean age = 41.4 years) wrote about negative life events involving their own actions and inactions, and rated the current emotion elicited by those events. They also rated emotions elicited by someone else's actions and inactions. These ratings were compared with evaluations provided by a second, 'benchmark' group of non-depressed individuals (n = 20) in order to assess the magnitude and direction of possible biased emotional reactions in the two groups. Participants with depression reported greater anger and disgust than expected in response to both actions and inactions, whereas they reported greater guilt, shame, sadness, responsibility and fear than expected in response to inactions. Relative to non-depressed and benchmark participants, depressed participants were overly negative in the evaluation of their own life events, but not the life events of others. A standardized method for establishing emotional bias reveals a pattern of overly negative emotion only in depressed individuals' self-evaluations, and in particular with respect to anger and disgust, lending support to claims that major depressives' evaluations represent negative emotional bias and to clinical interventions that address this bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  17. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  18. Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-05-30

    In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2014-06-01

    The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

  20. [Incidence rate of adverse reaction/event by Qingkailing injection: a Meta-analysis of single rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Chun-ling; Xie, Yan-ming; Li, Ming-quan; Wang, Lian-xin; Liao, Xing

    2015-12-01

    To systematically review the incidence rate of adverse drug reaction/event by Qingkailing injection. Such databases as the PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane library, CNKI, VIP WanFang data and CBM were searched by computer from foundation to July 30, 2015. Two reviewers independently screened literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracted data and cross check data. Then, Meta-analysis was performed by using the R 3.2.0 software, subgroup sensitivity analysis was performed based on age, mode of medicine, observation time and research quality. Sixty-three studies involving 9,793 patients with Qingkailing injection were included, 367 cases of adverse reactions/events were reported in total. The incidence rate of adverse reaction in skin and mucosa group was 2% [95% CI (0.02; 0.03)]; the digestive system adverse reaction was 6% [95% CI(0.05; 0.07); the injection site adverse reaction was 4% [95% CI (0.02; 0.07)]. In the digestive system as the main types of adverse reactions/events, incidence of children and adults were 4.6% [0.021 1; 0.097 7] and 6.9% [0.053 5; 0.089 8], respectively. Adverse reactions to skin and mucous membrane damage as the main performance/event type, the observation time > 7 days and ≤ 7 days incidence of 3% [0.012 9; 0.068 3] and 1.9% [0.007 8; 0.046 1], respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that different types of adverse reactions, combination in the incidence of adverse reactions/events were higher than that of single drug, the difference was statistically significant (P reactions occur, and clinical rational drug use, such as combination, age and other fators, and the influence factors vary in different populations. Therefore, clinical doctors for children and the elderly use special care was required for a clear and open spirit injection, the implementation of individualized medication.

  1. Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis on the variability of flood occurrence rates in 10 Portuguese watersheds is made, to ascertain if that variability is concurrent with the principle of stationarity. A peaks-over-threshold (POT sampling technique is applied to 10 long series of mean daily streamflows and to 4 long series of daily rainfall in order to sample the times of occurrence (POT time data of the peak values of those series. The kernel occurrence rate estimator, coupled with a bootstrap approach, was applied to the POT time data to obtain the time dependent estimated occurrence rate curves, λˆ(t, of floods and extreme rainfall events. The results of the analysis show that the occurrence of those events constitutes an inhomogeneous Poisson process, hence the occurrence rates are nonstationary. An attempt was made to assess whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO casted any influence on the occurrence rate of floods in the study area. Although further research is warranted, it was found that years with a less-than-average occurrence of floods tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the positive phase, and years with a higher occurrence of floods (more than twice the average tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the negative phase. Although the number of analyzed watersheds and their uneven spatial distribution hinders the generalization of the findings to the country scale, the authors conclude that the mathematical formulation of the flood frequency models relying on stationarity commonly employed in Portugal should be revised in order to account for possible nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of such events.

  2. Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Exploring the relationship between analgesic event rate and pain intensity in kidney stone surgery: A Repeated Time to Event Pilot Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Rasmus Vestergaard; Pedersen, Katja Venborg; Christrup, Lona Louring

    III-60 Rasmus Juul Exploring the relationship between analgesic event rate and pain intensity in kidney stone surgery: A Repeated Time to Event Pilot Study RV Juul(1), KV Pedersen(2, 4), LL Christrup(1), AE Olesen(1, 3), AM Drewes(3), PJS Osther(4), TM Lund(1) 1) Department of Drug Design...... a relationship with pain intensity has not yet been established. The aim of this pilot study was to discuss how best to investigate the relationship between RTTE hazard of analgesic events and pain intensity in postoperative pain. Methods: Data was available from 44 patients undergoing kidney stone surgery......). Gompertz and exponential distribution models were evaluated. Post-hoc linear mixed effect modelling was performed between estimated RTTE hazard and observed NRS using the lme4 package in R (3). Results: A Gompertz distribution model adequately described data, with a baseline event rate of 0.64h-1 (RSE 25...

  4. Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

    2016-10-01

    This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

  5. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  6. INES - The International Nuclear Event Scale. User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials. This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  7. Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graat, Julien de

    2012-01-01

    A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between ∝ 20% and ∝ 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between ∝ 42% and ∝ 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26±5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72±15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

  8. Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graat, Julien de

    2012-06-15

    A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb{sup -1} of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between {proportional_to} 20% and {proportional_to} 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between {proportional_to} 42% and {proportional_to} 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26{+-}5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72{+-}15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

  9. Rate-limiting events in hyperthermic cell killing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landry, J.; Marceau, N.

    1978-01-01

    The inactivation rate of HeLa cells for temperatures ranging from 41 to 55 0 C and treatment durations varying from 2 to 300 min was analyzed in thermodynamic terms by considering the dependence of cell free energy (ΔG + ) on temperature. Within this temperature range the loss of proliferative capacity exhibits a complex temperature dependence which is characterized by entropy and enthalpy values that gradually decrease as temperature increases. This complex process of heat-induced cell killing was postulated to be the result of a series of reactions, each of them being alternatively rate limiting within a certain temperature range. From this kinetic scheme a mathematical model was derived and, in the case of HeLa cells, the use of a least-squares search parameter procedure (as applied to the derived survival regression function) demonstrated that three such sequential reactions were sufficient to explain all experimental data points obtained within the 41 to 55 0 C range. The proposed model was also shown to be adequate for explaining survival data of HeLa cells exposed to nanosecond heat pulses of infrared laser energy. Considerations of thermodynamic properties of known biochemical reactions suggest plausible rate-limiting events in hyperthermic cell killing

  10. Possible multihazard events (tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides) expected on the North Bulgarian Black sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranguelov, B.; Gospodinopv, D.

    2009-04-01

    huge mass slide in the waters, buried Bisone and created the peak Chirakman. The event of 1901 also created landslides, subsidence of a huge land block with dimensions of about 1x1 km. and rock falls with large boulders. The landslide could be also submarine; creating is such way turbidities and/or mud flows from the bottom deposits like sapropel breccia and mud volcano depositions. The time dependent scenario The initial data about the time development of the hazards phenomena is based on their main physical properties - size, location, velocity of the process, intensity (magnitude), etc. The table about the main parameters, possible consequences and general threaten objects is created. The main time development of the disasters in case of the referent event (magnitude 7.2) is presented at the time chart diagram. The time chart development of the selected hazardous processes is presented as follows: Conclusions The time dependent scenario in case of a referent M7.2 seismic event is developed. The investigations about the consecutive and simultaneous action of all expected hazards and their multirisk effects are performed. The results obtained show the complex possible consequences and interrelated dependencies. Acknowledgments: This study is supported by the SCHEMA and TRANSFER EU Projects.

  11. Ratings of Severity of Life Events by Ninth-Grade Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Jerry B.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Special education, basic, and honors ninth-grade students (n=60) rated the severity of stress for each of the life events on the Source of Stress Inventory (Chandler, 1981). There was a significant positive relationship between the Chandler rankings (teachers and mental health workers) and the student rankings. (Author/NB)

  12. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  13. Approaches to proton single-event rate calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, E.L.

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the fundamentals of proton-induced single-event upsets and of the various methods that have been developed to calculate upset rates. Two types of approaches are used based on nuclear-reaction analysis. Several aspects can be analyzed using analytic methods, but a complete description is not available. The paper presents an analytic description for the component due to elastic-scattering recoils. There have been a number of studies made using Monte Carlo methods. These can completely describe the reaction processes, including the effect of nuclear reactions occurring outside the device-sensitive volume. They have not included the elastic-scattering processes. The article describes the semiempirical approaches that are most widely used. The quality of previous upset predictions relative to space observations is discussed and leads to comments about the desired quality of future predictions. Brief sections treat the possible testing limitation due to total ionizing dose effects, the relationship of proton and heavy-ion upsets, upsets due to direct proton ionization, and relative proton and cosmic-ray upset rates

  14. Differences in the rates of patient safety events by payer: implications for providers and policymakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Christine S; Roberts, Eric T; Gaskin, Darrell J

    2015-06-01

    The reduction of adverse patient safety events and the equitable treatment of patients in hospitals are clinical and policy priorities. Health services researchers have identified disparities in the quality of care provided to patients, both by demographic characteristics and insurance status. However, less is known about the extent to which disparities reflect differences in the places where patients obtain care, versus disparities in the quality of care provided to different groups of patients in the same hospital. In this study, we examine whether the rate of adverse patient safety events differs by the insurance status of patients within the same hospital. Using discharge data from hospitals in 11 states, we compared risk-adjusted rates for 13 AHRQ Patient Safety Indicators by Medicare, Medicaid, and Private payer insurance status, within the same hospitals. We used multivariate regression to assess the relationship between insurance status and rates of adverse patient safety events within hospitals. Medicare and Medicaid patients experienced significantly more adverse safety events than private pay patients for 12 and 7 Patient Safety Indicators, respectively (at P patients had significantly lower event rates than private payers on 2 Patient Safety Indicators. Risk-adjusted Patient Safety Indicator rates varied with patients' insurance within the same hospital. More research is needed to determine the cause of differences in care quality received by patients at the same hospital, especially if quality measures are to be used for payment.

  15. Growth rate for the expected value of a generalized random Fibonacci sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janvresse, Elise; De la Rue, Thierry; Rittaud, BenoIt

    2009-01-01

    We study the behaviour of generalized random Fibonacci sequences defined by the relation g n = |λg n-1 ± g n-2 |, where the ± sign is given by tossing an unbalanced coin, giving probability p to the + sign. We prove that the expected value of g n grows exponentially fast for any 0 (2 - λ)/4 when λ is of the form 2cos(π/k) for some fixed integer k ≥ 3. In both cases, we give an algebraic expression for the growth rate

  16. A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.K. Sarin (Rakesh); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive and ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The

  17. Is There a Downside to Anticipating the Upside? Children's and Adults' Reasoning About How Prior Expectations Shape Future Emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Karen Hjortsvang; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Kramer, Hannah J

    2017-11-24

    Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 205) responded to vignettes involving three individuals with different expectations (high, low, and no) for a future event. Participants judged characters' pre-outcome emotions, as well as predicted and explained their feelings following three events (positive, attenuated, and negative). Although adults rated high-expectation characters more negatively than low-expectation characters after all outcomes, children shared this intuition starting at 6-7 years for negative outcomes, 8-10 years for attenuated, and never for positive. Comparison to baseline (no expectation) indicated that understanding the costs of high expectations emerges first and remains more robust across age than recognition that low expectations carry benefits. Explanation analyses further clarified this developing awareness about the relation between thoughts and emotions over time. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  18. A simple axiomatization of nonadditive expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive as well as ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The main

  19. Impact of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombolotutu, A. D.; Djirimu, M. A.; Lutfi, M.; Anggadini, F.

    2018-05-01

    Research was conducted in several districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province in order to determine the effect of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate, and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty at the districts/city in the province. The analysis used is Panel Data Regression. The results show that first, life expectancy and gross domestic regional income have a negative and significant impact on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province. Second, the opened unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the province. Third, literacy rates show a positive effect and insignificant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province of Central Sulawesi. Fourth, these four variables simultaneously affect the poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi

  20. Study of μ e events produced in antineutrino interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marage, P.; Gerbier, G.; Guy, J.; Kochowski, C.; Aderholz, M.; Armenise, N.; Azemoon, T.; Bartley, J. H.; Baton, J. P.; Bertrand, D.; Bertrand-Coremans, Gh.; Brisson, V.; Bullock, F. W.; Calicchio, M.; Clayton, E. F.; Coghen, T.; Cooper, A. M.; Deck, L.; Erriquez, O.; Faulkener, P.; Fogli-Muciaccia, M. T.; Hulth, P. O.; Iaselli, G.; Jones, G. T.; Kasper, P.; Klein, H.; Lagraa, M.; Leighton-Davis, S.; Middleton, R.; Miller, D. B.; Mobayyen, M. M.; Natali, S.; Neveu, M.; Nuzzo, S.; O'Neale, S.; Parker, A.; Petiau, P.; Sacton, J.; Schmitz, N.; Simopoulou, E.; Talebzadeh, M.; van Doninck, W.; Varvell, K.; Vayaki, A.; Venus, W.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wells, J.; Wernhard, K. L.; Wittek, W.; Zevgolatakos, E.

    1984-12-01

    A study is presented of μ e events from an exposure of BEBC, filed with an heavy H 2/ Ne mixture, to a wide band antineutrino beam at the CERN SPS. The prompt μ + e - rate, based on the observation of 45 events with p μ>4 GeV/c and p e>0.8 GeV/c, is found to be 0.31±0.05±0.02%, in agreement with previous determinations made on much smaller statistics. The differential kinematical variables characterizing the events and the content of strange particles are as expected for the production of charmed hadrons which subsequently decay semi-leptonically. An upper limit of 2.0±10-4 at 90% C.L. is given for the production rate of prompt μ + e + events. No evidence is found for a significant production of Beauty hadrons.

  1. A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

    1995-01-01

    The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

  2. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  3. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-02-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled ''Clarification of Issues Raised''. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  4. Single event upsets correlated with environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vampola, A.L.; Albin, F.; Lauriente, M.; Wilkinson, D.C.; Allen, J.

    1994-01-01

    Single Event Upset rates on satellites in different Earth orbits are correlated with solar protons and geomagnetic activity and also with the NASA AP8 proton model to extract information about satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. An extensive discussion of the SEU data base from the TOMS solid state recorder and an algorithm for correcting spontaneous upsets in it are included as an Appendix. SAMPEX and TOMS, which have the same memory chips, have similar normalized responses in the South Atlantic Anomaly. SEU rates due to solar protons over the polar caps are within expectations. No geomagnetic activity effects can be discerned in the SEU rates

  5. Sport tourist expectations of a world championship sporting event ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A questionnaire based on the Expectancy Disconfirmation Theory of Qu and Ping (1999) was administered to a convenience sample (n=123) from the universum of 893 international sport tourists attending the 2002 Tug-of-War World Championships in South Africa. Data was analysed through the Cronbach Alpha Method, ...

  6. The effect of sporting events on emergency department attendance rates in a district general hospital in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, A; Millar, L; Murphy, B; Davison, G W; Brown, R; O'Donnell, M E

    2010-10-01

    Previous studies have reported a conflicting relationship between the effect of live and televised sporting events on attendance rates to emergency departments (ED). The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship of major sporting events on emergency department attendance rates and to determine the potential effects of such events on service provision. A retrospective analysis of ED attendances to a district general hospital (DGH) and subsequent admissions over a 24-h period following live and televised sporting activities was performed over a 5-year period. Data were compiled from the hospital's emergency record books including the number of attendances, patient demographics, clinical complaint and outcome. Review patients were excluded. Analysis of sporting events was compiled for live local, regional and national events as well as world-wide televised sporting broadcasts. A total of 137,668 (80,445 men) patients attended from April 2002 to July 2007. Mean attendance rate per day was 80 patients (men = 47). Mean admission rate was 13.6 patients per day. Major sporting events during the study period included; Soccer: 4 FA Cup and 1 World Cup (WC) finals; Rugby: 47 Six Nations, 25 Six nations games involving Ireland, 1 WC final, 2 WC semi-finals, 2 WC quarter-finals and 4 WC games involving Ireland; and Gaelic Football [Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA)]: 5 All-Ireland finals, 11 semi-finals, 11 quarter-finals and 5 provincial finals. There was a significantly higher patient admission rate during the soccer FA Cup final, Rugby Six Nations and games involving Ireland and for GAA semi- and quarter-final games (p = 0.001-0.01). There was no difference identified in total attendance or non-admission rates for sporting events throughout the study period. Although there was no correlation identified between any of these sporting events and total emergency department attendances (r 0.07), multinomial logistic regression demonstrated that FA Cup final (p

  7. Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical bayes: A railway application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed

  8. Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Schäfer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

  9. Adverse Event Rates Associated with Transforaminal and Interlaminar Epidural Steroid Injections: A Multi-Institutional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Yahchouchi, Christine A; Plastaras, Christopher T; Maus, Timothy P; Carr, Carrie M; McCormick, Zachary L; Geske, Jennifer R; Smuck, Matthew; Pingree, Matthew J; Kennedy, David J

    2016-02-01

    Transforaminal epidural steroid injections (TFESI) have demonstrated efficacy and effectiveness in treatment of radicular pain. Despite little evidence of efficacy/effectiveness, interlaminar epidural steroid injections (ILESI) are advocated by some as primary therapy for radicular pain due to purported greater safety. To assess immediate and delayed adverse event rates of TFESI and ILESI injections at three academic medical centers utilizing International Spine Intervention Society practice guidelines. Quality assurance databases from a Radiology and two physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) practices were interrogated. Medical records were reviewed, verifying immediate and delayed adverse events. There were no immediate major adverse events of neurologic injury or hemorrhage in 16,638 consecutive procedures in all spine segments (14,956 TFESI; 1,682 ILESI). Vasovagal reactions occurred in 1.2% of procedures, more frequently (P = 0.004) in TFESI (1.3%) than ILESI (0.5%). Dural punctures occurred in 0.06% of procedures, more commonly after ILESI (0.2% vs 0.04%, P = 0.006). Delayed follow up on PM&R patients (92.5% and 78.5, next business day) and radiology patients (63.1%, 2 weeks) identified no major adverse events of neurologic injury, hemorrhage, or infection. There were no significant differences in delayed minor adverse event rates. Central steroid response (sleeplessness, flushing, nonpositional headache) was seen in 2.6% of both TFESI and ILESI patients. 2.1% of TFESI and 1.8% of ILESI patients reported increased pain. No long-term sequelae were seen from any immediate or delayed minor adverse event. Both transforaminal and ILESI are safely performed with low immediate and delayed adverse event rates when informed by evidence-based procedural guidelines. By demonstrating comparable safety, this study suggests that the choice between ILESI and TFESIs can be based on documented efficacy and effectiveness and not driven by safety concerns.

  10. Tools for Trigger Rate Monitoring at CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Geoffrey; Wightman, Andrew Steven

    2017-01-01

    In 2017, we expect the LHC to deliver an instantaneous luminosity of roughly $2.0 \\times 10^{34}$~cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment, with about 60 simultaneous proton-proton collisions (pileup) per event. In these challenging conditions, it is important to be able to intelligently monitor the rate at which data are being collected (the trigger rate). It is not enough to simply look at the trigger rate; it is equally important to compare the trigger rate with expectations. We present a set of software tools that have been developed to accomplish this. The tools include a real-time component - a script that monitors the rates of individual triggers during data-taking, and activates an alarm if rates deviate significantly from expectation. Fits are made to previously collected data and extrapolated to higher pileup. The behavior of triggers as a function of pileup is then monitored as data are collected - plots are automatically produced on an hourly basis and uploaded to a web area...

  11. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2014-12-06

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  12. Comparison of brand versus generic antiepileptic drug adverse event reporting rates in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Motiur; Alatawi, Yasser; Cheng, Ning; Qian, Jingjing; Plotkina, Annya V; Peissig, Peggy L; Berg, Richard L; Page, David; Hansen, Richard A

    2017-09-01

    Despite the cost saving role of generic anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs), debate exists as to whether generic substitution of branded AEDs may lead to therapeutic failure and increased toxicity. This study compared adverse event (AE) reporting rates for brand vs. authorized generic (AG) vs. generic AEDs. Since AGs are pharmaceutically identical to brand but perceived as generics, the generic vs. AG comparison minimized potential bias against generics. Events reported to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System between January 2004 to March 2015 with lamotrigine, carbamazepine, and oxcarbazepine listed as primary or secondary suspect were classified as brand, generic, or AG based on the manufacturer. Disproportionality analyses using the reporting odds ratio (ROR) assessed the relative rate of reporting of labeled AEs compared to reporting these events with all other drugs. The Breslow-Day statistic compared RORs across brand, AG, and other generics using a Bonferroni-corrected Pbrand and generics for all three drugs of interest (Breslow-Day Pbrands and generics have similar reporting rates after accounting for generic perception biases. Disproportional suicide reporting was observed for generics compared with AGs and brand, although this finding needs further study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Compact Binary Mergers and the Event Rate of Fast Radio Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xiao-Feng; Yu, Yun-Wei; Zhou, Xia

    2018-05-01

    Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are usually suggested to be associated with mergers of compact binaries consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), or black holes (BHs). We test these models by fitting the observational distributions in both redshift and isotropic energy of 22 Parkes FRBs, where, as usual, the rates of compact binary mergers (CBMs) are connected with cosmic star formation rates by a power-law distributed time delay. It is found that the observational distributions can well be produced by the CBM model with a characteristic delay time from several tens to several hundreds of megayears and an energy function index 1.2 ≲ γ ≲ 1.7, where a tentative fixed spectral index β = 0.8 is adopted for all FRBs. Correspondingly, the local event rate of FRBs is constrained to {(3{--}6)× {10}4{f}{{b}}-1({ \\mathcal T }/270{{s}})}-1{({ \\mathcal A }/2π )}-1 {Gpc}}-3 {yr}}-1 for an adopted minimum FRB energy of E min = 3 × 1039 erg, where f b is the beaming factor of the radiation, { \\mathcal T } is the duration of each pointing observation, and { \\mathcal A } is the sky area of the survey. This event rate, about an order of magnitude higher than the rates of NS–NS/NS–BH mergers, indicates that the most promising origin of FRBs in the CBM scenario could be mergers of WD–WD binaries. Here a massive WD could be produced since no FRB was found to be associated with an SN Ia. Alternatively, if all FRBs can repeat on a timescale much longer than the period of current observations, then they could also originate from a young active NS that forms from relatively rare NS–NS mergers and accretion-induced collapses of WD–WD binaries.

  14. An Examination of Three Spatial Event Cluster Detection Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hensley H. Mariathas

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In spatial disease surveillance, geographic areas with large numbers of disease cases are to be identified, so that targeted investigations can be pursued. Geographic areas with high disease rates are called disease clusters and statistical cluster detection tests are used to identify geographic areas with higher disease rates than expected by chance alone. In some situations, disease-related events rather than individuals are of interest for geographical surveillance, and methods to detect clusters of disease-related events are called event cluster detection methods. In this paper, we examine three distributional assumptions for the events in cluster detection: compound Poisson, approximate normal and multiple hypergeometric (exact. The methods differ on the choice of distributional assumption for the potentially multiple correlated events per individual. The methods are illustrated on emergency department (ED presentations by children and youth (age < 18 years because of substance use in the province of Alberta, Canada, during 1 April 2007, to 31 March 2008. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate Type I error and the power of the clustering methods.

  15. Association between sporting event attendance and self-rated health: an analysis of multiyear cross-sectional national data in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Yuhei; Sato, Mikihiro; Nakazawa, Makoto

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which sporting event attendance is associated with self-rated health. Drawing from an economic model of health production and psychological research on the health benefits of psychosocial resources, sporting event attendance was hypothesized to have a positive relationship with self-rated health. A two-level multilevel ordered logistic regression was used to analyze multiyear cross-sectional data collected from national surveys in Japan. The results demonstrate that, controlling for the effects of personal and environmental characteristics, sporting event attendance positively correlates with self-rated health over a 12-year period. Specifically, when compared to individuals who did not attend any sporting event during the past year, those who attended a sporting event were 33% more likely to indicate a higher level of self-rated health. These findings provide evidence for a positive association between sport spectatorship and the perception of general health and contribute to the literature examining the relationship between sport spectatorship and health outcomes.

  16. 2Kx2K resolution element photon counting MCP sensor with >200 kHz event rate capability

    CERN Document Server

    Vallerga, J V

    2000-01-01

    Siegmund Scientific undertook a NASA Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contract to develop a versatile, high-performance photon (or particle) counting detector combining recent technical advances in all aspects of Microchannel Plate (MCP) detector development in a low cost, commercially viable package that can support a variety of applications. The detector concept consists of a set of MCPs whose output electron pulses are read out with a crossed delay line (XDL) anode and associated high-speed event encoding electronics. The delay line anode allows high-resolution photon event centroiding at very high event rates and can be scaled to large formats (>40 mm) while maintaining good linearity and high temporal stability. The optimal sensitivity wavelength range is determined by the choice of opaque photocathodes. Specific achievements included: spatial resolution of 200 000 events s sup - sup 1; local rates of >100 events s sup - sup 1 per resolution element; event timing of <1 ns; and low background ...

  17. An improved method for setting upper limits with small numbers of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartz, M.L.

    1990-01-01

    We note that most experimental searches for rare phenomena actually measure the ratio of the number of event candidates to the number of some normalizing events. These measurements are most naturally interpreted within the framework of binomial or trinomial statistics. We present a general expression, based upon a classical treatment, that accounts for statistical normalization errors and incorporates expected background rates. The solutions of this expression converge to the standard Poisson values when the number of normalizing events is larger than a few hundred. (orig.)

  18. What happens when we compare the lifespan distributions of life script events and autobiographical memories of life story events? A cross-cultural study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

    Cultural Life Script Theory (Berntsen and Rubin, 2004), provides a cultural explanation of the reminiscence bump: adults older than 40 years remember a significantly greater amount of life events happening between 15 - 30 years of age (Rubin, Rahal, & Poon, 1998), compared to other lifetime periods....... Most of these memories are rated as emotionally positive (Rubin & Berntsen, 2003). The cultural life script represents culturally shared expectations about the order and timing of life events in an typical, idealised life course. By comparing the lifespan distribution of the life scripts events...... and memories of life story events, we can determine the degree to which the cultural life script serves as a recall template for autobiographical memories, especially of positive life events from adolescence and early adulthood, also known as the reminiscence bump period....

  19. Trend analysis of cables failure events at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fushimi, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    In this study, 152 failure events related with cables at overseas nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Database, which is owned by The Institute of Nuclear Safety System, and these events are analyzed in view of occurrence, causal factor, and so on. And 15 failure events related with cables at domestic nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Archives, which is owned by JANTI, and these events are analyzed by the same manner. As a result of comparing both trends, it is revealed following; 1) A cable insulator failure rate is lower at domestic nuclear power plants than at foreign ones. It is thought that a deterioration diagnosis is performed broadly in Japan. 2) Many buried cables failure events have been occupied a significant portion of cables failure events during work activity at overseas plants, however none has been occurred at domestic plants. It is thought that sufficient survey is conducted before excavating activity in Japan. 3) A domestic age related cables failure rate in service is lower than the overseas one and domestic improper maintenance rate is higher than the overseas one. Maintenance worker' a skill improvement is expected in order to reduce improper maintenance. (author)

  20. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  1. LIMITS ON THE EVENT RATES OF FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS FROM THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayth, Randall B.; Tingay, Steven J.; Deller, Adam T.; Brisken, Walter F.; Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Majid, Walid A.

    2012-01-01

    We present the first results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal search for fast transient radio bursts using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). V-FASTR is unique in that the widely spaced VLBA antennas provide a discriminant against non-astronomical signals and a mechanism for the localization and identification of events that is not possible with single dishes or short baseline interferometers. Thus, far V-FASTR has accumulated over 1300 hr of observation time with the VLBA, between 90 cm and 3 mm wavelength (327 MHz-86 GHz), providing the first limits on fast transient event rates at high radio frequencies (>1.4 GHz). V-FASTR has blindly detected bright individual pulses from seven known pulsars but has not detected any single-pulse events that would indicate high-redshift impulsive bursts of radio emission. At 1.4 GHz, V-FASTR puts limits on fast transient event rates comparable with the PALFA survey at the Arecibo telescope, but generally at lower sensitivities, and comparable to the 'fly's eye' survey at the Allen Telescope Array, but with less sky coverage. We also illustrate the likely performance of the Phase 1 SKA dish array for an incoherent fast transient search fashioned on V-FASTR.

  2. The Informational Content of Credit Ratings in Brazil: An Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Cruz de Souza Murcia

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the effect of credit rating announcements on stock returns in the Brazilian market during 1997-2011. We conducted an event study using a sample of 242 observations of listed companies, 179 from Standard and Poor’s and 63 from Moody’s, to analyze stock market reaction. Abnormal returns have been computed using the Market Model and CAPM for three windows: three days (-1, +1, 11 days (-5, +5 and 21 days (-10, +10. We find statistically significant abnormal returns in days -1 and 0 for all the three types of rating announcement tested: initial rating, downgrades and upgrades. For downgrades, consisted with prior studies, our results also showed negative abnormal returns for all practically all windows tested. Overall, our findings evidence the rating announcements do have information content, as it impacts stock returns causing abnormal returns, especially when they bring ‘bad news’ to the market.

  3. The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, John S.

    1978-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to "imagine". Two experiments were designed to…

  4. Expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of osteoporotic fractures for 50-year old Chinese women: a discrete event simulation incorporating FRAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yawen; Ni, Weiyi

    2016-11-01

    This work was undertaken to provide an estimation of expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of fractures for 50-year-old Chinese women. A discrete event simulation model was developed to simulate the lifetime fractures of 50-year-old Chinese women at average risk of osteoporotic fracture. Main events in the model included hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture. Fracture risks were calculated using the FRAX ® tool. Simulations of 50-year-old Chinese women without fracture risks were also carried out as a comparison to determine the burden of fractures. A 50-year-old Chinese woman at average risk of fracture is expected to experience 0.135 (95 % CI: 0.134-0.137) hip fractures, 0.120 (95 % CI: 0.119-0.122) clinical vertebral fractures, 0.095 (95 % CI: 0.094-0.096) wrist fractures, 0.079 (95 % CI: 0.078-0.080) humerus fractures, and 0.407 (95 % CI: 0.404-0.410) other fractures over the remainder of her life. The residual lifetime risk of any fracture, hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture for a 50-year-old Chinese woman is 37.36, 11.77, 10.47, 8.61, 7.30, and 27.80 %, respectively. The fracture-attributable excess quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss and lifetime costs are estimated at 0.11 QALYs (95 % CI: 0.00-0.22 QALYs) and US $714.61 (95 % CI: US $709.20-720.02), totaling a net monetary benefit loss of US $1,104.43 (95 % CI: US $904.09-1,304.78). Chinese women 50 years of age are at high risk of osteoporotic fracture, and the expected economic and quality-of-life burden attributable to osteoporotic fractures among Chinese women is substantial.

  5. An Oracle-based Event Index for ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Gallas, Elizabeth; The ATLAS collaboration; Petrova, Petya Tsvetanova; Baranowski, Zbigniew; Canali, Luca; Formica, Andrea; Dumitru, Andrei

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS EventIndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS, the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We've indexed about 15 billion real data events and about 25 billion simulated events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year for real data and simulation, respectively. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data ...

  6. A review on earthquake and tsunami hazards of the Sumatran plate boundary: Observing expected and unexpected events after the Aceh-Andaman Mw 9.15 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natawidjaja, D.

    2013-12-01

    The 600-km Mentawai megathrust had produced two giant historical earthquakes generating big tsunamies in 1797 and 1833. The SuGAr (Sumatran GPS continuous Array) network, first deployed in 2002, shows that the subduction interface underlying Mentawai Islands and the neighboring Nias section in the north are fully locked, thus confirming their potential hazards. Outreach activities to warn people about earthquake and tsunamies had been started since 4 months prior to the 26 December 2004 in Aceh-Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15). Later in March 2005, the expected megathrust earthquake (Mw 8.7) hit Nias-Simelue area and killed about 2000 people, releasing the accumulated strain since the previous 1861 event (~Mw 8.5). After then many Mw 7s and smaller events occured in Sumatra, filling areas between and around two giant ruptures and heighten seismicities in neighboring areas. In March 2007, the twin earthquake disaster (Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.4) broke two consecutive segments of the transcurrent Sumatran fault in the Singkarak lake area. Only six month later, in September 2007, the rapid-fire-failures of three consecutive megathrust patches (Mw 8.5, Mw 7.9 and Mw 7.0) ruptured a 250-km-section of the southern part of the Mentawai. It was a big surprise since this particular section is predicted as a very-low coupled section from modelling the SuGAr data, and hence, bypassing the more potential fully coupled section of the Mentawai in between the 2005 and 2007 ruptures. In September 2009, a rare unexpected event (Mw 7.6) suddenly ruptured an intracrustal fault in the subducted slab down under Padang City and killed about 500 people. Padang had been in preparation for the next tsunami but not for strong shakes from near by major earthquake. This event seems to have remotely triggered another Mw 6.7 on the Sumatran fault near kerinci Lake, a few hundred kilometers south of Padang, in less than a day. Just a year later, in November 2010, again an unexpected large slow-slip event of

  7. Prevalent Rate of Nonalbuminuric Renal Insufficiency and Its Association with Cardiovascular Disease Event in Korean Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye Won Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundNonalbuminuric renal insufficiency is a unique category of diabetic kidney diseases. The objectives of the study were to evaluate prevalent rate of nonalbuminuric renal insufficiency and to investigate its relationship with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD event in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM.MethodsLaboratory and clinical data of 1,067 subjects with T2DM were obtained and reviewed. Study subjects were allocated into four subgroups according to the CKD classification. Major CVD events were included with coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events.ResultsNonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, when compared with albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, had shorter diabetic duration, lower concentrations of glycated hemoglobin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, lower prevalent rates of retinopathy and previous CVD, and higher rate of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers. Nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group showed a greater association with prior CVD events than no CKD group; however, albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group made addition to increase prevalence of prior CVD events significantly when CKD categories were applied as covariates. Association of prior CVD events, when compared with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, became significant for declined eGFR, which was higher for eGFR of <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, and albuminuria.ConclusionThe results show that subjects with nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD is significantly interrelated with occurrence of prior CVD events than those with normal eGFR with or without albuminuria. Comparing with normal eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, the combination of increased degree of albuminuria and declined eGFR is becoming significant for the association of prior CVD events.

  8. High cardiovascular event rates in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the REACH Registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aichner, F T; Topakian, R; Alberts, M J

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on current cardiovascular event rates in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) are sparse. We compared the 1-year outcomes of patients with ACAS > or =70% versus patients without ACAS in an international, prospective cohort of outpatients with or a...

  9. Spectral analysis of time series of events: effect of respiration on heart rate in neonates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drongelen, Wim; Williams, Amber L; Lasky, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    Certain types of biomedical processes such as the heart rate generator can be considered as signals that are sampled by the occurring events, i.e. QRS complexes. This sampling property generates problems for the evaluation of spectral parameters of such signals. First, the irregular occurrence of heart beats creates an unevenly sampled data set which must either be pre-processed (e.g. by using trace binning or interpolation) prior to spectral analysis, or analyzed with specialized methods (e.g. Lomb's algorithm). Second, the average occurrence of events determines the Nyquist limit for the sampled time series. Here we evaluate different types of spectral analysis of recordings of neonatal heart rate. Coupling between respiration and heart rate and the detection of heart rate itself are emphasized. We examine both standard and data adaptive frequency bands of heart rate signals generated by models of coupled oscillators and recorded data sets from neonates. We find that an important spectral artifact occurs due to a mirror effect around the Nyquist limit of half the average heart rate. Further we conclude that the presence of respiratory coupling can only be detected under low noise conditions and if a data-adaptive respiratory band is used

  10. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  11. Conditional expectations associated with quantum states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niestegge, Gerd

    2005-01-01

    An extension of the conditional expectations (those under a given subalgebra of events and not the simple ones under a single event) from the classical to the quantum case is presented. In the classical case, the conditional expectations always exist; in the quantum case, however, they exist only if a certain weak compatibility criterion is satisfied. This compatibility criterion was introduced among others in a recent paper by the author. Then, state-independent conditional expectations and quantum Markov processes are studied. A classical Markov process is a probability measure, together with a system of random variables, satisfying the Markov property and can equivalently be described by a system of Markovian kernels (often forming a semigroup). This equivalence is partly extended to quantum probabilities. It is shown that a dynamical (semi)group can be derived from a given system of quantum observables satisfying the Markov property, and the group generators are studied. The results are presented in the framework of Jordan operator algebras, and a very general type of observables (including the usual real-valued observables or self-adjoint operators) is considered

  12. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  13. Event Reconstruction Algorithms for the ATLAS Trigger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca-Martin, T.; /CERN; Abolins, M.; /Michigan State U.; Adragna, P.; /Queen Mary, U. of London; Aleksandrov, E.; /Dubna, JINR; Aleksandrov, I.; /Dubna, JINR; Amorim, A.; /Lisbon, LIFEP; Anderson, K.; /Chicago U., EFI; Anduaga, X.; /La Plata U.; Aracena, I.; /SLAC; Asquith, L.; /University Coll. London; Avolio, G.; /CERN; Backlund, S.; /CERN; Badescu, E.; /Bucharest, IFIN-HH; Baines, J.; /Rutherford; Barria, P.; /Rome U. /INFN, Rome; Bartoldus, R.; /SLAC; Batreanu, S.; /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /CERN; Beck, H.P.; /Bern U.; Bee, C.; /Marseille, CPPM; Bell, P.; /Manchester U.; Bell, W.H.; /Glasgow U. /Pavia U. /INFN, Pavia /Regina U. /CERN /Annecy, LAPP /Paris, IN2P3 /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /Argonne /CERN /UC, Irvine /Barcelona, IFAE /Barcelona, Autonoma U. /CERN /Montreal U. /CERN /Glasgow U. /Michigan State U. /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /New York U. /Barcelona, IFAE /Barcelona, Autonoma U. /Salento U. /INFN, Lecce /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /UC, Irvine /CERN /Glasgow U. /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Lisbon, LIFEP /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /UC, Irvine /Valencia U. /Rio de Janeiro Federal U. /University Coll. London /New York U.; /more authors..

    2011-11-09

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10{sup 9} interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system.

  14. An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00083337; The ATLAS collaboration; Dimitrov, Gancho

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in AT...

  15. Event reconstruction algorithms for the ATLAS trigger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F-Martin, T; Avolio, G; Backlund, S [European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Abolins, M [Michigan State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, East Lansing, Michigan (United States); Adragna, P [Department of Physics, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, London (United Kingdom); Aleksandrov, E; Aleksandrov, I [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Amorim, A [Laboratorio de Instrumentacao e Fisica Experimental, Lisboa (Portugal); Anderson, K [University of Chicago, Enrico Fermi Institute, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Anduaga, X [National University of La Plata, La Plata (United States); Aracena, I; Bartoldus, R [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), Stanford (United States); Asquith, L [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London (United Kingdom); Badescu, E [National Institute for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Institute of Atomic Physics, Bucharest (Romania); Baines, J [Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot (United Kingdom); Beck, H P [Laboratory for High Energy Physics, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Bee, C [Centre de Physique des Particules de Marseille, IN2P3-CNRS, Marseille (France); Bell, P [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Barria, P; Batreanu, S [and others

    2008-07-01

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10{sup 9} interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system.

  16. Event reconstruction algorithms for the ATLAS trigger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F-Martin, T; Avolio, G; Backlund, S; Abolins, M; Adragna, P; Aleksandrov, E; Aleksandrov, I; Amorim, A; Anderson, K; Anduaga, X; Aracena, I; Bartoldus, R; Asquith, L; Badescu, E; Baines, J; Beck, H P; Bee, C; Bell, P; Barria, P; Batreanu, S

    2008-01-01

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10 9 interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system

  17. Unfamiliar voice identification: Effect of post-event information on accuracy and voice ratings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet Mary Jessica Smith

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study addressed the effect of misleading post-event information (PEI on voice ratings, identification accuracy, and confidence, as well as the link between verbal recall and accuracy. Participants listened to a dialogue between male and female targets, then read misleading information about voice pitch. Participants engaged in verbal recall, rated voices on a feature checklist, and made a lineup decision. Accuracy rates were low, especially on target-absent lineups. Confidence and accuracy were unrelated, but the number of facts recalled about the voice predicted later lineup accuracy. There was a main effect of misinformation on ratings of target voice pitch, but there was no effect on identification accuracy or confidence ratings. As voice lineup evidence from earwitnesses is used in courts, the findings have potential applied relevance.

  18. Analysis of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions at HERA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, G.

    2007-02-07

    A study of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions is presented. Within the Standard Model (SM) such topologies are expected mainly from production of real W bosons with subsequent leptonic decay. This thesis continues the analysis of such events done in the HERA-1 period where an excess over the SM prediction was observed for events with high hadronic transverse momentum P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV. New data of the HERA-2 period are added. The analysed data sample recorded in e{sup +}p collisions corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 220 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of two more with respect to the HERA-1 analysis. The e{sup -}p data correspond to 186 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of 13 more with respect to HERA-1. All three lepton generations (electrons muons and tau leptons) are analysed. In the electron and muon channels a total of 53 events are observed in 406 pb{sup -1}. This compares well to the SM expectation of 53.7{+-}6.5 events, dominated by W production. However a difference in the event rate is observed for different electron beam charges. In e{sup +}p data the excess of events with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is sustained, while the e{sup -}p data agree with the SM. In the tau channel 18 events are observed in all HERA data, with 20{+-}3 expected from the SM. The events are dominated by irreducible background from charged currents. The contribution from W production amounts to about 22%. One event with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is observed, where 1.4{+-}0.3 are expected from the SM. (orig.)

  19. Healthy life expectancy and the correlates of self-rated health in Bangladesh in 1996 and 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareque, Md Ismail; Saito, Yasuhiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

    2015-03-31

    Life expectancy (LE) at birth has increased steadily in Bangladesh since its independence. When people live longer, quality of life becomes a central issue. This study examines whether healthy life expectancy (HLE) at ages 15, 25, 35, and 45 is keeping pace with LE at those ages between 1996 and 2002. It also seeks to investigate the correlates of self-rated health (SRH) in 1996 and 2002. We used data from the World Values Survey conducted in 1996 and 2002 among individuals 15 years and older. The Sullivan method was used to compute HLE. Socio-demographic differences and their association with different states of health were examined by chi-square and Pearson's correlation tests. Multiple linear regression models were fitted to examine the correlates of SRH. The results show that perceived health improved between 1996 and 2002. For males, statistically significant increases in the expected number of years lived in good SRH were found. Proportionally, in 2002, both males and females at ages 15, 25, 35 and 45 expected more life years in good health and fewer life years in fair and poor health than did their counterparts in 1996. Comparatively, males expected fewer life years spent in good health but a much larger proportion of expected life in good health than did females. Finally, in multivariate analyses, life satisfaction was the only factor found to be significantly and positively associated with SRH for males and females in both years, although in both years the association was much more pronounced for females than for males. This study documented changes in HLE during 1996-2002. Women outlive men, but they have a lower quality of life and are more likely to live a greater part of their remaining life in poor SRH. Life satisfaction as well as other significant factors associated with SRH should be promoted, with special attention given to women, to improve healthy life expectancy and the quality of life of the Bangladeshi people.

  20. Properties of jets in Z events from 1.8 TeV bar pp collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauger, S.A.

    1994-01-01

    We have studied the properties of Z boson events produced in 1.8 TeV p bar p collisions using 19.3 pb -1 of integrated luminosity collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992--1993 Tevatron run. We compare the characteristics of the hadronic jets associated with the Z to leading-order QCD calculations using the VECBOS Monte Carlo program. For a subsample of events, we identify B jets and compare their rates to those expected from events with generic QCD jets

  1. Rate-dependent performance of ion chambers for particle-ID at the GSI fragment separator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hucka, Jan-Paul; Allred, Timothy; Enders, Joachim [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt (Germany); Gernhaeuser, Roman; Maurus, Steffen [Physik Department, TU Muenchen (Germany); Nociforo, Chiara; Pietri, Stephane; Prochazka, Andrej [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    At the GSI Fragment Separator (FRS), multi-sampling ion chambers (MUSIC) employing a Frisch grid are used for charge identification of secondary ion beams. At the FAIR Super-FRS, higher rates are expected, and an event-by-event determination of the charge of secondary ions will be needed at rates of several 100000 events per second. The comparison of results from test measurements for the MUSIC performance with that of a recently constructed tilted-electrode gas ion chamber (TEGIC), which was designed similar to the one discussed, is presented.

  2. A search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrend, H.J.; Buerger, J.; Criegee, L.; Dainton, J.B.; Fenner, H.; Field, J.H.; Franke, G.; Meyer, J.; Schroeder, V.; Timm, U.; Winter, G.G.; Zimmermann, W.; Bussey, P.J.; Buttar, C.; Campbell, A.J.; Hendry, D.; McCurrach, G.; Scarr, J.M.; Skillicorn, I.O.; Smith, K.M.; Ahme, J.; Blobel, V.; Feindt, M.; Harjes, J.; Peters, J.H.; Poppe, M.; Spitzer, H.; Boer, W. de; Buschhorn, G.; Grindhammer, G.; Gunderson, B.; Kiesling, C.; Kotthaus, R.; Kroha, H.; Lueers, D.; Oberlack, H.; Schacht, P.; Shooshtari, G.; Wiedenmann, W.; Davier, M.; Grivaz, J.F.; Haissinski, J.; Janot, P.; Journe, V.; Le Diberder, F.; Spadafora, A.; Veillet, J.J.; Cozzika, G.; Ducros, Y.; Lavagne, Y.; Ould Saada, F.; Zacek, J.; Alexander, G.; Bella, G.; Gnat, Y.; Grunhaus, J.; Klatchko, A.; Levy, A.

    1987-01-01

    Using the CELLO detector at the PETRA e + e - storage ring a search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton has been carried out. The rate of such events and the thrust distribution of inclusive lepton events show no evidence for a threshold of new sources of inclusive lepton events at the highest PETRA energies. For √s > 46.3 GeV we observe one muon event of the above type, compared to an expectation of 0.8±0.2 events from lower energy data. We do not observe any electron event of this class at the highest PETRA energies. The CELLO data thus do not support the observations of the MARK-J and JADE collaborations of an excess of muon events of the above type at √s > 46.3 GeV. (orig.)

  3. High-Rate Data-Capture for an Airborne Lidar System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valett, Susan; Hicks, Edward; Dabney, Philip; Harding, David

    2012-01-01

    A high-rate data system was required to capture the data for an airborne lidar system. A data system was developed that achieved up to 22 million (64-bit) events per second sustained data rate (1408 million bits per second), as well as short bursts (less than 4 s) at higher rates. All hardware used for the system was off the shelf, but carefully selected to achieve these rates. The system was used to capture laser fire, single-photon detection, and GPS data for the Slope Imaging Multi-polarization Photo-counting Lidar (SIMPL). However, the system has applications for other laser altimeter systems (waveform-recording), mass spectroscopy, xray radiometry imaging, high-background- rate ranging lidar, and other similar areas where very high-speed data capture is needed. The data capture software was used for the SIMPL instrument that employs a micropulse, single-photon ranging measurement approach and has 16 data channels. The detected single photons are from two sources those reflected from the target and solar background photons. The instrument is non-gated, so background photons are acquired for a range window of 13 km and can comprise many times the number of target photons. The highest background rate occurs when the atmosphere is clear, the Sun is high, and the target is a highly reflective surface such as snow. Under these conditions, the total data rate for the 16 channels combined is expected to be approximately 22 million events per second. For each photon detection event, the data capture software reads the relative time of receipt, with respect to a one-per-second absolute time pulse from a GPS receiver, from an event timer card with 0.1-ns precision, and records that information to a RAID (Redundant Array of Independent Disks) storage device. The relative time of laser pulse firings must also be read and recorded with the same precision. Each of the four event timer cards handles the throughput from four of the channels. For each detection event, a flag is

  4. An event database for rotational seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvermoser, Johannes; Hadziioannou, Celine; Hable, Sarah; Chow, Bryant; Krischer, Lion; Wassermann, Joachim; Igel, Heiner

    2016-04-01

    The ring laser sensor (G-ring) located at Wettzell, Germany, routinely observes earthquake-induced rotational ground motions around a vertical axis since its installation in 2003. Here we present results from a recently installed event database which is the first that will provide ring laser event data in an open access format. Based on the GCMT event catalogue and some search criteria, seismograms from the ring laser and the collocated broadband seismometer are extracted and processed. The ObsPy-based processing scheme generates plots showing waveform fits between rotation rate and transverse acceleration and extracts characteristic wavefield parameters such as peak ground motions, noise levels, Love wave phase velocities and waveform coherence. For each event, these parameters are stored in a text file (json dictionary) which is easily readable and accessible on the website. The database contains >10000 events starting in 2007 (Mw>4.5). It is updated daily and therefore provides recent events at a time lag of max. 24 hours. The user interface allows to filter events for epoch, magnitude, and source area, whereupon the events are displayed on a zoomable world map. We investigate how well the rotational motions are compatible with the expectations from the surface wave magnitude scale. In addition, the website offers some python source code examples for downloading and processing the openly accessible waveforms.

  5. Communicating about nuclear events: Some suggestions to improve INES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kermisch, Céline; Labeau, Pierre-Etienne

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a critical analysis of the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) and its use, both from an epistemic and an ethical perspective. As very few papers have been dedicated to this subject, our critical analysis is mainly based on the INES 2009 User's Manual and on technical information issued by different nuclear agencies. Our critical analysis leads to suggest several elements, which could contribute to the improvement of the INES scale and thereby to a better communication about nuclear events. First, we show that multiple criteria are used to assign an INES rating, which could lead to an insufficient differentiation between events. In order to avoid this issue, we suggest to clarify the criteria that are used to assess the level of the event. Then, we show that level 7 of the INES scale is ill-defined as it does not allow to properly take differences in severity between disasters into account. In this regard, we recommend to use an open scale instead. Moreover, we highlight the fact that INES is able to take into account neither events with long-term evolution nor events involving multiple initiators. In this respect, we suggest providing additional guidelines and reflecting about the data on which to rely, in order to assess an INES level. Furthermore, we reflect on who should be rating a nuclear event and we recommend that, for severe events, an independent and plural agency should be in charge. Finally, we show why INES appears to be insufficient for a global communication, and we suggest to complement the INES rating with additional information in parallel. -- Highlights: •We provide a critical analysis of the INES scale and suggestions to improve it. •The rating criteria should be clarified to allow differentiation between events. •An open scale should be used to differentiate between level-7 accidents. •Additional guidelines should be provided for complex and evolving events. •We provide suggestions to satisfy

  6. Violence deaths and its impact on life expectancy: a comparison between Mexico and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vega-López, María Guadalupe; Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach

    2017-09-01

    Using official data, this study analyzed violent deaths (homicide, suicide, events of undetermined intent and deaths due to legal intervention) in Brazil and Mexico in the three-year periods 2002-2004 and 2012-14, the impact of these causes of death on life expectancy in both countries and the role of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL). Abridged life tables were constructed for both countries for both periods. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL between zero and 80 years by selected causes and age groups were calculated for each triennium. The leading cause of YLEL among men was homicide in both periods in Brazil (1.5 years) and in the second period in Mexico (one year). Violent deaths (VD) accounted for around 16% of YLEL in Brazil and 13% in Mexico in 2012-2014. Among women, YLEL due to homicides and suicides showed the greatest relative increase in both countries, although VD accounted for barely 3% of total YLEL. The highest percentage of YLEL due to VDwas found among the 15 to 29 year age groups in both countries and for both sexes. The increase in rates of VD in Mexico, above all among young people, has curbed further increases in life expectancy in recent years, especially among men. Likewise, the high rates of VD in Brazil in both periods have hindered the growth of life expectancy.

  7. Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. G. van den Berg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

  8. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  9. An asynchronous data-driven event-building scheme based on ATM switching fabrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Letheren, M.; Christiansen, J.; Mandjavidze, I.; Verhille, H.; De Prycker, M.; Pauwels, B.; Petit, G.; Wright, S.; Lumley, J.

    1994-01-01

    The very high data rates expected in experiments at the next generation of high luminosity hadron colliders will be handled by pipelined front-end readout electronics and multiple levels (2 or 3) of triggering. A variety of data acquisition architectures have been proposed for use downstream of the first level trigger. Depending on the architecture, the aggregate bandwidths required for event building are expected to be of the order 10--100 Gbit/s. Here, an Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) packet-switching network technology is proposed as the interconnect for building high-performance, scalable data acquisition architectures. This paper introduces the relevant characteristics of ATM and describes components for the construction of an ATM-based event builder: (1) a multi-path, self-routing, scalable ATM switching fabric, (2) an experimental high performance workstation ATM-interface, and (3) a VMEbus ATM-interface. The requirement for traffic shaping in ATM-based event-builders is discussed and an analysis of the performance of several such schemes is presented

  10. Expectations in case of event - from a television editor's point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, H.

    1997-01-01

    Informing the public about emergencies requires two different phases a of necessary operation: (1) a pre-event culture of permanent relations and communication, training authors and editors, and footage-providing, and (2) a mobile information task force to be alerted very quickly in case of event. Special television needings and recommandations are elaborated, the legal duties of german public radio and television corporations are outlined. (orig.) [de

  11. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-05-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M• boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ~10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ~250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ~102-7 × 102 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5 years, respectively), depending on the detailed assumptions regarding LISA detection capabilities.

  12. Public High School Four-Year On-Time Graduation Rates and Event Dropout Rates: School Years 2010-11 and 2011-12. First Look. NCES 2014-391

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stetser, Marie C.; Stillwell, Robert

    2014-01-01

    This National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) First Look report introduces new data for two separate measures of 4-year on-time graduation rates as well as event dropout rates for school year (SY) 2010-11 and SY 2011-12. Specifically this report provides the following: (1) Four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) data reported by…

  13. Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

  14. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  15. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  16. A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Antonio I.

    The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer

  17. Associated Electron-Muon Events from High-Energy Hadronic Collisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plaag, Robert Emil

    The inclusive reaction p + N (--->) e + (mu) + X was measured at an energy of 38.8 GeV (center of mass). Data representing a total luminosity of 13.4 inverse femtobarns (13.4 x 10('39) cm('-2)) were analyzed. Three associated electron-muon events were observed. The observed signal was 0.02 (+OR-) 0.015 of the Drell-Yan di-muon production. The expected number of e(mu) events from tau lepton pair production and decay was calculated to be 0.5 (+OR-) 0.1. A two sigma upper limit for (lepton family number violating) two body resonant decays to e + (mu) was obtained (produc- tion of ) D + (')D (--->) e + K (--->) e + (mu) interpretation of these candidate events was consistent with the lower limit on charm production obtained with the prompt e(mu) rate.

  18. Multiple Case Study of Event Management Curricula and Industry Professionals' Expectations of New Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Premila A.

    2016-01-01

    The event management segment of the hospitality industry has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. As a result, demand for qualified event management professionals continues to increase. To help prepare qualified professionals for the event management industry, higher education institutions in the United States are now offering…

  19. Short gamma-ray burst formation rate from BATSE data using E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation and the minimum gravitational-wave event rate of a coalescing compact binary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yonetoku, Daisuke; Sawano, Tatsuya; Toyanago, Asuka [College of Science and Engineering, School of Mathematics and Physics, Kanazawa University, Kakuma, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192 (Japan); Nakamura, Takashi [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Takahashi, Keitaro, E-mail: yonetoku@astro.s.kanazawa-u.ac.jp, E-mail: takashi@tap.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Faculty of Science, Kumamoto University, Kurokami, Kumamoto 860-8555 (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    Using 72 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) with well determined spectral data observed by BATSE, we determine their redshift and luminosity by applying the E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation for SGRBs found by Tsutsui et al. For 53 SGRBs with an observed flux brighter than 4 × 10{sup –6} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}, the cumulative redshift distribution up to z = 1 agrees well with that of 22 Swift SGRBs. This suggests that the redshift determination by the E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation for SGRBs works well. The minimum event rate at z = 0 is estimated as R{sub on−axis}{sup min}=6.3{sub −3.9}{sup +3.1}× 10{sup −10} events Mpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}, so that the minimum beaming angle is 0.°6-7.°8 assuming a merging rate of 10{sup –7}- 4 × 10{sup –6} events Mpc{sup –3} yr{sup –1} suggested from the binary pulsar data. Interestingly, this angle is consistent with that for SGRB 130603B of ∼4°-8°. On the other hand, if we assume a beaming angle of ∼6° suggested from four SGRBs with the observed beaming angle value, then the minimum event rate including off-axis SGRBs is estimated as R{sub all}{sup min}=1.15{sub −0.66}{sup +0.56} × 10{sup −7} events Mpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}. If SGRBs are induced by the coalescence of binary neutron stars (NSs) and/or black holes (BHs), then this event rate leads to a minimum gravitational-wave detection rate of 3.8{sub −2.2}{sup +1.8} (146{sub −83}{sup +71}) events yr{sup −1} for an NS-NS (NS-BH) binary, respectively, by a worldwide network with KAGRA, advanced-LIGO, advanced-VIRGO, and GEO.

  20. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  1. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  2. An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallas, E. J.; Dimitrov, G.; Vasileva, P.; Baranowski, Z.; Canali, L.; Dumitru, A.; Formica, A.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in ATLAS, the system has been easily extended to perform essential assessments of data integrity and completeness and to identify event duplication, including at what step in processing the duplication occurred.

  3. Information-Theoretic Properties of Auditory Sequences Dynamically Influence Expectation and Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agres, Kat; Abdallah, Samer; Pearce, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    A basic function of cognition is to detect regularities in sensory input to facilitate the prediction and recognition of future events. It has been proposed that these implicit expectations arise from an internal predictive coding model, based on knowledge acquired through processes such as statistical learning, but it is unclear how different types of statistical information affect listeners' memory for auditory stimuli. We used a combination of behavioral and computational methods to investigate memory for non-linguistic auditory sequences. Participants repeatedly heard tone sequences varying systematically in their information-theoretic properties. Expectedness ratings of tones were collected during three listening sessions, and a recognition memory test was given after each session. Information-theoretic measures of sequential predictability significantly influenced listeners' expectedness ratings, and variations in these properties had a significant impact on memory performance. Predictable sequences yielded increasingly better memory performance with increasing exposure. Computational simulations using a probabilistic model of auditory expectation suggest that listeners dynamically formed a new, and increasingly accurate, implicit cognitive model of the information-theoretic structure of the sequences throughout the experimental session. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  4. Systematic review of reporting rates of adverse events following immunization: an international comparison of post-marketing surveillance programs with reference to China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Biao; Page, Andrew; Wang, Huaqing; Taylor, Richard; McIntyre, Peter

    2013-01-11

    China is the most populous country in the world, with an annual birth cohort of approximately 16 million, requiring an average of 500 million vaccine doses administered annually. In China, over 30 domestic and less than 10 overseas vaccine manufacturers supply over 60 licensed vaccine products, representing a growing vaccine market mainly due to recent additions to the national immunization schedule, but data on post-marketing surveillance for adverse events following immunization (AEFI) are sparse. To compare reporting rates for various categories of AEFI from China with other routine post-marketing surveillance programs internationally. Systematic review of published studies reporting rates of AEFI by vaccine, category of reaction and age from post-marketing surveillance systems in English and Chinese languages. Overall AEFI reporting rates (all vaccines, all ages) in Chinese studies were consistent with those from similar international studies elsewhere, but there was substantial heterogeneity in regional reporting rates in China (range 2.3-37.8/100,000 doses). The highest AEFI reporting rates were for diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis whole-cell (DTwP) and acellular (DTaP) vaccines (range 3.3-181.1/100,000 doses for DTwP; range 3.5-92.6/100,000 doses for DTaP), with higher median rates for DTwP than DTaP, and higher than expected rates for DTaP vaccine. Similar higher rates for DTwP and DTaP containing vaccines, and relatively lower rates for vaccines against hepatitis B virus, poliovirus, and Japanese encephalitis virus were found in China and elsewhere in the world. Overall AEFI reporting rates in China were consistent with similar post-marketing surveillance systems in other countries. Sources of regional heterogeneity in AEFI reporting rates, and their relationships to differing vaccine manufacturers versus differing surveillance practices, require further exploration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  6. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  7. Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

    2017-09-01

    Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

  8. Theory of mind for processing unexpected events across contexts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dungan, James A; Stepanovic, Michael; Young, Liane

    2016-08-01

    Theory of mind, or mental state reasoning, may be particularly useful for making sense of unexpected events. Here, we investigated unexpected behavior across both social and non-social contexts in order to characterize the precise role of theory of mind in processing unexpected events. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to examine how people respond to unexpected outcomes when initial expectations were based on (i) an object's prior behavior, (ii) an agent's prior behavior and (iii) an agent's mental states. Consistent with prior work, brain regions for theory of mind were preferentially recruited when people first formed expectations about social agents vs non-social objects. Critically, unexpected vs expected outcomes elicited greater activity in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, which also discriminated in its spatial pattern of activity between unexpected and expected outcomes for social events. In contrast, social vs non-social events elicited greater activity in precuneus across both expected and unexpected outcomes. Finally, given prior information about an agent's behavior, unexpected vs expected outcomes elicited an especially robust response in right temporoparietal junction, and the magnitude of this difference across participants correlated negatively with autistic-like traits. Together, these findings illuminate the distinct contributions of brain regions for theory of mind for processing unexpected events across contexts. © The Author (2016). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  9. Temporal expectation weights visual signals over auditory signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menceloglu, Melisa; Grabowecky, Marcia; Suzuki, Satoru

    2017-04-01

    Temporal expectation is a process by which people use temporally structured sensory information to explicitly or implicitly predict the onset and/or the duration of future events. Because timing plays a critical role in crossmodal interactions, we investigated how temporal expectation influenced auditory-visual interaction, using an auditory-visual crossmodal congruity effect as a measure of crossmodal interaction. For auditory identification, an incongruent visual stimulus produced stronger interference when the crossmodal stimulus was presented with an expected rather than an unexpected timing. In contrast, for visual identification, an incongruent auditory stimulus produced weaker interference when the crossmodal stimulus was presented with an expected rather than an unexpected timing. The fact that temporal expectation made visual distractors more potent and visual targets less susceptible to auditory interference suggests that temporal expectation increases the perceptual weight of visual signals.

  10. Indoor acrolein emission and decay rates resulting from domestic cooking events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, Vincent Y.; Bennett, Deborah H.; Cahill, Thomas M.

    2009-12-01

    Acrolein (2-propenal) is a common constituent of both indoor and outdoor air, can exacerbate asthma in children, and may contribute to other chronic lung diseases. Recent studies have found high indoor levels of acrolein and other carbonyls compared to outdoor ambient concentrations. Heated cooking oils produce considerable amounts of acrolein, thus cooking is likely an important source of indoor acrolein. A series of cooking experiments were conducted to determine the emission rates of acrolein and other volatile carbonyls for different types of cooking oils (canola, soybean, corn and olive oils) and deep-frying different food items. Similar concentrations and emission rates of carbonyls were found when different vegetable oils were used to deep-fry the same food product. The food item being deep-fried was generally not a significant source of carbonyls compared to the cooking oil. The oil cooking events resulted in high concentrations of acrolein that were in the range of 26.4-64.5 μg m -3. These concentrations exceed all the chronic regulatory exposure limits and many of the acute exposure limits. The air exchange rate and the decay rate of the carbonyls were monitored to estimate the half-life of the carbonyls. The half-life for acrolein was 14.4 ± 2.6 h, which indicates that indoor acrolein concentrations can persist for considerable time after cooking in poorly-ventilated homes.

  11. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  12. Intensity changes in future extreme precipitation: A statistical event-based approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    Short-lived precipitation extremes are often responsible for hazards in urban and rural environments with economic and environmental consequences. The precipitation intensity is expected to increase about 7% per degree of warming, according to the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. However, the observations often show a much stronger increase in the sub-daily values. In particular, the behavior of the hourly summer precipitation from radar observations with the dew point temperature (the Pi-Td relation) for the Netherlands suggests that for moderate to warm days the intensification of the precipitation can be even higher than 21% per degree of warming, that is 3 times higher than the expected CC relation. The rate of change depends on the initial precipitation intensity, as low percentiles increase with a rate below CC, the medium percentiles with 2CC and the moderate-high and high percentiles with 3CC. This non-linear statistical Pi-Td relation is suggested to be used as a delta-transformation to project how a historic extreme precipitation event would intensify under future, warmer conditions. Here, the Pi-Td relation is applied over a selected historic extreme precipitation event to 'up-scale' its intensity to warmer conditions. Additionally, the selected historic event is simulated in the high-resolution, convective-permitting weather model Harmonie. The initial and boundary conditions are alternated to represent future conditions. The comparison between the statistical and the numerical method of projecting the historic event to future conditions showed comparable intensity changes, which depending on the initial percentile intensity, range from below CC to a 3CC rate of change per degree of warming. The model tends to overestimate the future intensities for the low- and the very high percentiles and the clouds are somewhat displaced, due to small wind and convection changes. The total spatial cloud coverage in the model remains, as also in the statistical

  13. Radiation dose of aircrews during a solar proton event without ground-level enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kataoka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant enhancement of radiation doses is expected for aircrews during ground-level enhancement (GLE events, while the possible radiation hazard remains an open question during non-GLE solar energetic particle (SEP events. Using a new air-shower simulation driven by the proton flux data obtained from GOES satellites, we show the possibility of significant enhancement of the effective dose rate of up to 4.5 μSv h−1 at a conventional flight altitude of 12 km during the largest SEP event that did not cause a GLE. As a result, a new GOES-driven model is proposed to give an estimate of the contribution from the isotropic component of the radiation dose in the stratosphere during non-GLE SEP events.

  14. Sex differences in pain anchors revisited: further investigation of "most intense" and common pain events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; George, Steven Z; Dannecker, Erin A; Jump, Rebecca L; Hirsh, Adam T; Gagnon, Christine M; Brown, Jennifer L

    2004-08-01

    Recent research suggests that the interpretation of maximal endpoints of pain scales vary between sexes. The purposes of this study were to investigate sex differences in (a) maximal endpoints of pain scales and (b) bias, discrimination, and the "better than average effect" for ratings of common pain events. Study participants described and rated the intensity of events that were the "most intense pain imaginable" for the typical woman, typical man, and one's self. Study participants also described and rated the intensity of the "most painful" events they had experienced. Study participants completed the situational pain questionnaire (SPQ), which measured the amount of pain that the typical woman, typical man, or one's self would be expected to experience during thirty common painful events. One hundred and fifteen undergraduate psychology students completed this study. Men and women differed in the categories of events selected for most intense pain imaginable for one's self. There were no significant sex differences for the intensity of most intense self-imagined pain or most painful event experienced. However, women were more likely to report the intensity of their worst self-imagined pain event as 100/100. In addition, only women demonstrated a significant correlation between the intensity of most painful self-experienced event and intensity of most intense self-imagined event. Analyses of the SPQ discrimination scores revealed no sex or version differences. Analyses of the SPQ bias scores showed that both sexes indicated that the typical woman would rate the intensity of common pain events higher than would the typical man. Women rated the intensity of common pain events for themselves lower than for the typical woman, but higher than the typical man, and men rated also rated themselves as lower than the typical women, but the same as the typical man. Thus, there was inconsistent support for the "better than average effect". Future research is needed to

  15. Measurement Differences from Rating Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms in Response to Differentially Distressing Traumatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhai, Jon D.; Fine, Thomas H.

    2012-01-01

    The authors explored differences in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms as a result of rating symptoms from two separate, differentially distressing traumatic events. In an initial sample of 400 nonclinical participants, the authors inquired through a web survey about previous psychological trauma, instructing participants to nominate…

  16. Broken dreams. Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roxas, Fernando; Santiago, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry. (author)

  17. Broken dreams: Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxas, Fernando, E-mail: fyanroxas@aim.ed [Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo de Roxas, Legaspi Village, Makati City (Philippines); Santiago, Andrea, E-mail: ma.andrea.santiago@dlsu.edu.p [De La Salle University, Taft Avenue, Manila (Philippines)

    2010-11-15

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry.

  18. Broken dreams. Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxas, Fernando [Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo de Roxas, Legaspi Village, Makati City (Philippines); Santiago, Andrea [De La Salle University, Taft Avenue, Manila (Philippines)

    2010-11-15

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry. (author)

  19. Pupil responses and pain ratings to heat stimuli: Reliability and effects of expectations and a conditioning pain stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenach, James C; Curry, Regina; Aschenbrenner, Carol A; Coghill, Robert C; Houle, Timothy T

    2017-03-01

    The locus coeruleus (LC) signals salience to sensory stimuli and these responses can modulate the experience of pain stimuli. The pupil dilation response (PDR) to noxious stimuli is thought to be a surrogate for LC responses, but PDR response to Peltier-controlled noxious heat stimuli, the most commonly used method in experimental pain research, has not been described. Healthy volunteers were presented with randomly presented heat stimuli of 5 sec duration and provided pain intensity ratings to each stimulus. Pupillometry was performed and a method developed to quantify the PDR relevant to these stimuli. The stimulus response, reliability, and effect of commonly used manipulations on pain experience were explored. A method of artifact removal and adjusting for lag from stimulus initiation to PDR response was developed, resulting in a close correlation between pain intensity rating and PDR across a large range of heat stimuli. A reliable assessment of PDR within an individual was achieved with fewer presentations as heat stimulus intensity increased. The correlation between pain rating and PDR was disrupted when cognitive load is increased by manipulating expectations or presenting a second pain stimulus. The PDR began later after skin heating than electrical stimuli and this is the first examination of the PDR using standard nociceptive testing and manipulations of expectations and competing noxious stimulation. A method is described applying PDR to standard heat nociceptive testing, demonstrating stimulus response, reliability, and disruption by cognitive manipulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  1. Event-building and PC farm based level-3 trigger at the CDF experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Anikeev, K; Furic, I K; Holmgren, D; Korn, A J; Kravchenko, I V; Mulhearn, M; Ngan, P; Paus, C; Rakitine, A; Rechenmacher, R; Shah, T; Sphicas, Paris; Sumorok, K; Tether, S; Tseng, J

    2000-01-01

    In the technical design report the event building process at Fermilab's CDF experiment is required to function at an event rate of 300 events/sec. The events are expected to have an average size of 150 kBytes (kB) and are assembled from fragments of 16 readout locations. The fragment size from the different locations varies between 12 kB and 16 kB. Once the events are assembled they are fed into the Level-3 trigger which is based on processors running programs to filter events using the full event information. Computing power on the order of a second on a Pentium II processor is required per event. The architecture design is driven by the cost and is therefore based on commodity components: VME processor modules running VxWorks for the readout, an ATM switch for the event building, and Pentium PCs running Linux as an operation system for the Level-3 event processing. Pentium PCs are also used to receive events from the ATM switch and further distribute them to the processing nodes over multiple 100 Mbps Ether...

  2. General programmable Level-1 trigger with 3D-Flow assembly system for calorimeters of different sizes and event rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetto, D.

    1992-12-01

    Experience demonstrates that fine tuning on the trigger of an experiment is often achieved only after running the experiment and analyzing the first data acquired. It is desirable that identification and, consequently, selection of interesting events be made on a more refined identification of particles. Use of an innovative parallel-processing system architecture together with an instruction set allows identification of objects (particles) among the data coming from a calorimeter in a programmable manner, utilizing the information related to their shape in two- or three-dimensional form, rather than applying only a programmable threshold proportional to their energy. The architecture is flexible, allowing execution of simple algorithms as well as complex pattern recognition algorithms. It is scalable in the sense that the same hardware can be used for small or large calorimeters having a slow or fast event rate. The simple printed circuit board (accommodating 16 x 3D-Flow processors) on a 4 in. x 4 in. board described herein uses the same hardware to build a large Level-1 programmable trigger (by interconnecting many boards in a matrix array) and is capable of implementing simple or complex pattern recognition algorithms at different event input rates (by cascading boards one on top of another). With the same hardware one can build low-cost, programmable Level-1 triggers for a small and low-event-rate calorimeter, or high-performance, programmable Level-1 triggers for a large calorimeter capable of sustaining up to 60 million events per second

  3. Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

    2016-04-01

    There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality

  4. Assessing the impact of safety monitoring on the efficacy analysis in large Phase III group sequential trials with non-trivial safety event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Yanqiu; Palesch, Yuko Y; DeSantis, Stacia M; Zhao, Wenle

    2016-01-01

    In Phase III clinical trials for life-threatening conditions, some serious but expected adverse events, such as early deaths or congestive heart failure, are often treated as the secondary or co-primary endpoint, and are closely monitored by the Data and Safety Monitoring Committee (DSMC). A naïve group sequential design (GSD) for such a study is to specify univariate statistical boundaries for the efficacy and safety endpoints separately, and then implement the two boundaries during the study, even though the two endpoints are typically correlated. One problem with this naïve design, which has been noted in the statistical literature, is the potential loss of power. In this article, we develop an analytical tool to evaluate this negative impact for trials with non-trivial safety event rates, particularly when the safety monitoring is informal. Using a bivariate binary power function for the GSD with a random-effect component to account for subjective decision-making in safety monitoring, we demonstrate how, under common conditions, the power loss in the naïve design can be substantial. This tool may be helpful to entities such as the DSMCs when they wish to deviate from the prespecified stopping boundaries based on safety measures.

  5. Physics and observations of tidal disruption events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangalam, Arun; Mageshwaran, Tamilan

    2018-04-01

    We describe a model of tidal disruption events (TDEs) with input physical parameters that include the black hole (BH) mass M•, the specific orbital energy E, the angular momentum J, the star mass M⊙ and radius R⊙. We calculate the rise time of the TDEs, the peak bolometric luminosity in terms of these physical parameters and a typical light curve of TDEs for various All Sky Survey (ASS) and Deep Sky Survey (DSS) missions. We then derive the expected detection rates and discuss the follow up of TDEs through observations in various spectral bands from X-rays to radio wavelengths.

  6. Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meinald T. Thielsch

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

  7. Detecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Mahecha

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme hydrometeorological conditions typically impact ecophysiological processes on land. Satellite-based observations of the terrestrial biosphere provide an important reference for detecting and describing the spatiotemporal development of such events. However, in-depth investigations of ecological processes during extreme events require additional in situ observations. The question is whether the density of existing ecological in situ networks is sufficient for analysing the impact of extreme events, and what are expected event detection rates of ecological in situ networks of a given size. To assess these issues, we build a baseline of extreme reductions in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, identified by a new event detection method tailored to identify extremes of regional relevance. We then investigate the event detection success rates of hypothetical networks of varying sizes. Our results show that large extremes can be reliably detected with relatively small networks, but also reveal a linear decay of detection probabilities towards smaller extreme events in log–log space. For instance, networks with  ≈  100 randomly placed sites in Europe yield a  ≥  90 % chance of detecting the eight largest (typically very large extreme events; but only a  ≥  50 % chance of capturing the 39 largest events. These findings are consistent with probability-theoretic considerations, but the slopes of the decay rates deviate due to temporal autocorrelation and the exact implementation of the extreme event detection algorithm. Using the examples of AmeriFlux and NEON, we then investigate to what degree ecological in situ networks can capture extreme events of a given size. Consistent with our theoretical considerations, we find that today's systematically designed networks (i.e. NEON reliably detect the largest extremes, but that the extreme event detection rates are not higher than would

  8. DEVS representation of dynamical systems - Event-based intelligent control. [Discrete Event System Specification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeigler, Bernard P.

    1989-01-01

    It is shown how systems can be advantageously represented as discrete-event models by using DEVS (discrete-event system specification), a set-theoretic formalism. Such DEVS models provide a basis for the design of event-based logic control. In this control paradigm, the controller expects to receive confirming sensor responses to its control commands within definite time windows determined by its DEVS model of the system under control. The event-based contral paradigm is applied in advanced robotic and intelligent automation, showing how classical process control can be readily interfaced with rule-based symbolic reasoning systems.

  9. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  10. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A.; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L.; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

    2018-01-01

    Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network. PMID:29515349

  11. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Camuñas-Mesa

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

  12. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

    2018-01-01

    Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

  13. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  14. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, S.J.

    1979-01-01

    In this report the rate, duration, and magnitude of changes from geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and the Gulf Coast over the next million years are projected. The projections were made by reviewing the pertinent literature; evaluating the geomorphic history of each region, especially that during the Quaternary Period; identifying the geomorphic processes and events likely to be significant in the two regions of interest; and estimating the average and worst-case conditions expected over the next million years

  15. The benefit of expecting no conflict--Stronger influence of self-generated than cue-induced conflict expectations on Stroop performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemper, Maike; Gaschler, Robert; Schwager, Sabine; Schubert, Torsten

    2016-01-01

    The role of expectations in sequential adaptation to cognitive conflict has been debated controversially in prior studies. On the one hand, a sequential congruency effect (SCE) has been reported for trials in which participants expect a repetition of conflict level. On the other hand, conflict level expectations vs. the SCE have been shown to develop differentially across runs of trials with the same conflict level, arguing against the theory that the SCE is purely driven by expectation. The current verbal Stroop experiment addresses this controversy by two means. First, we tested which specific type of expectation (cue-induced expectations vs. self-generated predictions) might affect the SCE. Second, we assessed the impact of expectation on the SCE as well as the development of SCE and expectation with congruency level run length in one design. We observed a dissociation between expectations and SCE, demonstrating that the SCE is not exclusively driven by expectations. At the same time, we found evidence that (self-generated) expectations do have an impact on the SCE. Our data document especially high performance for one specific combination of task events: congruent trial accompanied by congruent prediction and conflict level repetition. Our results are in line with theories attributing conflict adaptation effects to the "adaption to the lack of conflict". We discuss our results in a broader context of theories about conflict monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  16. Black-swan events in animal populations

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Sean C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Dulvy, Nicholas K.

    2017-01-01

    Black swans?statistically improbable events with profound consequences?happen more often than expected in financial, social, and natural systems. Our work demonstrates the rare but systematic presence of black-swan events in animal populations around the world (mostly birds, mammals, and insects). These events are predominantly downward, implying that unexpected population crashes occur more frequently than increases. Black-swan events are not driven by life history (e.g., lifespan) but by ex...

  17. Systematic procedures for identifying t quarks in p-barp collider events with a muon and jets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barger, V.; Baer, H.; Martin, A.D.; Phillips, R.J.N.

    1984-01-01

    Substantial rates are predicted for events containing a muon and jets resulting from W→tb-bar, Z→tt-bar, and tt-bar hadroproduction, with t→μνb decay. We investigate selective cuts to reject backgrounds from bb-bar, cc-bar, and cs-bar production and to identify the t-quark events. For example, from a data sample containing 50 W +- →e +- ν events, we expect that clean samples of approximately 4 tb-bar-(or t-barb-) and conservatively 4 tt-bar-initiated μ +- +jets events can be selected for a t-quark mass below 45 GeV. We suggest methods for distinguishing the contributions and for determining m/sub t/

  18. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Local gamma ray events as tests of the antimatter theory of gamma ray bursts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sofia, S.; Wilson, R.E.

    1976-01-01

    Nearby examples of the antimatter 'chunks' postulated by Sofia and Van Horn to explain the cosmic gamma ray bursts may produce detectable gamma ray events when struck by solar system meteoroids. These events would have a much shorter time scale and higher energy spectrum than the bursts already observed. In order to have a reasonably high event rate, the local meteoroid population must extend to a distance from the Sun of the order of 0.1 pc, but the required distance could become much lower if the instrumental threshold is improved. The expected gamma ray flux for interaction of the antimatter bodies with the solar wind is also examined, and found to be far below present instrumental capabilities. (Auth.)

  20. Isolated electrons and muons in events with missing transverse momentum at HERA

    CERN Document Server

    Andreev, V.; Anthonis, T.; Astvatsatourov, A.; Babaev, A.; Bahr, J.; Baranov, P.; Barrelet, E.; Bartel, W.; Baumgartner, S.; Becker, J.; Beckingham, M.; Beglarian, A.; Behnke, O.; Belousov, A.; Berger, C.; Berndt, T.; Bizot, J.C.; Bohme, J.; Boudry, V.; Bracinik, J.; Braunschweig, W.; Brisson, V.; Broker, H.B.; Brown, D.P.; Bruncko, D.; Busser, F.W.; Bunyatyan, A.; Burrage, A.; Buschhorn, G.; Bystritskaya, L.; Campbell, A.J.; Caron, S.; Cassol-Brunner, F.; Chekelian, V.; Clarke, D.; Collard, C.; Contreras, J.G.; Coppens, Y.R.; Coughlan, J.A.; Cousinou, M.C.; Cox, B.E.; Cozzika, G.; Cvach, J.; Dainton, J.B.; Dau, W.D.; Daum, K.; Davidsson, M.; Delcourt, B.; Delerue, N.; Demirchyan, R.; De Roeck, A.; De Wolf, E.A.; Diaconu, C.; Dingfelder, J.; Dixon, P.; Dodonov, V.; Dowell, J.D.; Dubak, A.; Duprel, C.; Eckerlin, Guenter; Eckstein, D.; Efremenko, V.; Egli, S.; Eichler, R.; Eisele, F.; Ellerbrock, M.; Elsen, E.; Erdmann, M.; Erdmann, W.; Faulkner, P.J.W.; Favart, L.; Fedotov, A.; Felst, R.; Ferencei, J.; Ferron, S.; Fleischer, M.; Fleischmann, P.; Fleming, Y.H.; Flucke, G.; Flugge, G.; Fomenko, A.; Foresti, I.; Formanek, J.; Franke, G.; Frising, G.; Gabathuler, E.; Gabathuler, K.; Garvey, J.; Gassner, J.; Gayler, Joerg; Gerhards, R.; Gerlich, C.; Ghazaryan, Samvel; Goerlich, L.; Gogitidze, N.; Gorbounov, S.; Grab, C.; Grabski, V.; Grassler, H.; Greenshaw, T.; Grindhammer, Guenter; Haidt, D.; Hajduk, L.; Haller, J.; Heinemann, B.; Heinzelmann, G.; Henderson, R.C.W.; Henschel, H.; Henshaw, O.; Heremans, R.; Herrera, G.; Herynek, I.; Hildebrandt, M.; Hilgers, M.; Hiller, K.H.; Hladky, J.; Hoting, P.; Hoffmann, D.; Horisberger, R.; Hovhannisyan, A.; Ibbotson, M.; Issever, C.; Jacquet, M.; Jaffre, M.; Janauschek, L.; Janssen, X.; Jemanov, V.; Jonsson, L.; Johnson, C.; Johnson, D.P.; Jones, M.A.S.; Jung, H.; Kant, D.; Kapichine, M.; Karlsson, M.; Karschnick, O.; Katzy, J.; Keil, F.; Keller, N.; Kennedy, J.; Kenyon, I.R.; Kiesling, Christian M.; Kjellberg, P.; Klein, M.; Kleinwort, C.; Kluge, T.; Knies, G.; Koblitz, B.; Kolya, S.D.; Korbel, V.; Kostka, P.; Koutouev, R.; Koutov, A.; Kroseberg, J.; Kruger, K.; Kueckens, J.; Kuhr, T.; Landon, M.P.J.; Lange, W.; Lastovicka, T.; Laycock, P.; Lebedev, A.; Leissner, B.; Lemrani, R.; Lendermann, V.; Levonian, S.; List, B.; Lobodzinska, E.; Lobodzinski, B.; Loktionova, N.; Lubimov, V.; Luders, S.; Luke, D.; Lytkin, L.; Malden, N.; Malinovski, E.; Mangano, S.; Marage, P.; Marks, J.; Marshall, R.; Martyn, H.U.; Martyniak, J.; Maxfield, S.J.; Meer, D.; Mehta, A.; Meier, K.; Meyer, A.B.; Meyer, H.; Meyer, J.; Michine, S.; Mikocki, S.; Milstead, D.; Mohrdieck, S.; Mondragon, M.N.; Moreau, F.; Morozov, A.; Morris, J.V.; Muller, K.; Murin, P.; Nagovizin, V.; Naroska, B.; Naumann, J.; Naumann, T.; Newman, Paul R.; Niebergall, F.; Niebuhr, C.; Nowak, G.; Nozicka, M.; Olivier, B.; Olsson, J.E.; Ozerov, D.; Panassik, V.; Pascaud, C.; Patel, G.D.; Peez, M.; Perez, E.; Petrukhin, A.; Phillips, J.P.; Pitzl, D.; Poschl, R.; Potachnikova, I.; Povh, B.; Rauschenberger, J.; Reimer, P.; Reisert, B.; Risler, C.; Rizvi, E.; Robmann, P.; Roosen, R.; Rostovtsev, A.; Rusakov, S.; Rybicki, K.; Sankey, D.P.C.; Sauvan, E.; Schatzel, S.; Scheins, J.; Schilling, F.P.; Schleper, P.; Schmidt, D.; Schmidt, S.; Schmitt, S.; Schneider, M.; Schoeffel, L.; Schoning, A.; Schoerner-Sadenius, Thomas; Schroder, V.; Schultz-Coulon, H.C.; Schwanenberger, C.; Sedlak, K.; Sefkow, F.; Sheviakov, I.; Shtarkov, L.N.; Sirois, Y.; Sloan, T.; Smirnov, P.; Soloviev, Y.; South, D.; Spaskov, V.; Specka, Arnd E.; Spitzer, H.; Stamen, R.; Stella, B.; Stiewe, J.; Strauch, I.; Straumann, U.; Tchetchelnitski, S.; Thompson, Graham; Thompson, P.D.; Tomasz, F.; Traynor, D.; Truoel, Peter; Tsipolitis, G.; Tsurin, I.; Turnau, J.; Turney, J.E.; Tzamariudaki, E.; Uraev, A.; Urban, Marcel; Usik, A.; Valkar, S.; Valkarova, A.; Vallee, C.; Van Mechelen, P.; Vargas Trevino, A.; Vassiliev, S.; Vazdik, Y.; Veelken, C.; Vest, A.; Vichnevski, A.; Volchinski, V.; Wacker, K.; Wagner, J.; Wallny, R.; Waugh, B.; Weber, G.; Weber, R.; Wegener, D.; Werner, C.; Werner, N.; Wessels, M.; Wessling, B.; Winde, M.; Winter, G.G.; Wissing, C.; Woehrling, E.E.; Wunsch, E.; Wyatt, A.C.; Zacek, J.; Zalesak, J.; Zhang, Z.; Zhokin, A.; Zomer, F.; zur Nedden, M.

    2003-01-01

    A search for events with a high energy isolated electron or muon and missing transverse momentum has been performed at the electron-proton collider HERA using an integrated luminosity of 13.6 pb-1 in e-p scattering and 104.7 pb-1 in e+p scattering. Within the Standard Model such events are expected to be mainly due to W boson production with subsequent leptonic decay. In e-p interactions one event is observed in the electron channel and none in the muon channel, consistent with the expectation of the Standard Model. In the e+p data a total of 18 events are seen in the electron and muon channels compared to an expectation of 12.4 \\pm 1.7 dominated by W production (9.4 \\pm 1.6). Whilst the overall observed number of events is broadly in agreement with the number predicted by the Standard Model, there is an excess of events with transverse momentum of the hadronic system greater than 25 GeV with 10 events found compared to 2.9 \\pm 0.5 expected. The results are used to determine the cross section for events with ...

  1. Syncope During Competitive Events: Interrogating Heart Rate Monitor Watches May Be Useful!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thabouillot, Oscar; Bostanci, Kevin; Bouvier, Francois; Dumitrescu, Nicolae; Stéfuriac, Maria; Paule, Philippe; Roche, Nicolas-Charles

    2017-12-01

    This is a case report of a 45-year-old man who reported complete amnesia during the very first kilometer of a 10-km run. He was wearing a heart rate monitor (HRM). The interrogation of his HRM watch showed 200 bpm tachycardia beginning in the first kilometer and increasing up to 220 bpm during the last kilometer. The patient was asked to wear a Holter-monitor (Holter Research Laboratory; Helena, Montana USA) electrocardiogram (ECG) while practicing a training session. This examination allowed for the diagnosis of an adrenergic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) with an impressive auriculo-ventricular conduction over 260 bpm. This case highlights that non-medical devices, such as connected watches, can be helpful to diagnose arrhythmias. Thabouillot O , Bostanci K , Bouvier F , Dumitrescu N , Stéfuriac M , Paule P , Roche NC . Syncope during competitive events: interrogating heart rate monitor watches may be useful! Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):691-693.

  2. Extreme mass ratio inspiral rates: dependence on the massive black hole mass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hopman, Clovis

    2009-01-01

    We study the rate at which stars spiral into a massive black hole (MBH) due to the emission of gravitational waves (GWs), as a function of the mass M . of the MBH. In the context of our model, it is shown analytically that the rate approximately depends on the MBH mass as M -1/4 . . Numerical simulations confirm this result, and show that for all MBH masses, the event rate is highest for stellar black holes, followed by white dwarfs, and lowest for neutron stars. The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is expected to see hundreds of these extreme mass ratio inspirals per year. Since the event rate derived here formally diverges as M . → 0, the model presented here cannot hold for MBHs of masses that are too low, and we discuss what the limitations of the model are.

  3. New methods for estimating follow-up rates in cohort studies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Xue

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The follow-up rate, a standard index of the completeness of follow-up, is important for assessing the validity of a cohort study. A common method for estimating the follow-up rate, the “Percentage Method”, defined as the fraction of all enrollees who developed the event of interest or had complete follow-up, can severely underestimate the degree of follow-up. Alternatively, the median follow-up time does not indicate the completeness of follow-up, and the reverse Kaplan-Meier based method and Clark’s Completeness Index (CCI also have limitations. Methods We propose a new definition for the follow-up rate, the Person-Time Follow-up Rate (PTFR, which is the observed person-time divided by total person-time assuming no dropouts. The PTFR cannot be calculated directly since the event times for dropouts are not observed. Therefore, two estimation methods are proposed: a formal person-time method (FPT in which the expected total follow-up time is calculated using the event rate estimated from the observed data, and a simplified person-time method (SPT that avoids estimation of the event rate by assigning full follow-up time to all events. Simulations were conducted to measure the accuracy of each method, and each method was applied to a prostate cancer recurrence study dataset. Results Simulation results showed that the FPT has the highest accuracy overall. In most situations, the computationally simpler SPT and CCI methods are only slightly biased. When applied to a retrospective cohort study of cancer recurrence, the FPT, CCI and SPT showed substantially greater 5-year follow-up than the Percentage Method (92%, 92% and 93% vs 68%. Conclusions The Person-time methods correct a systematic error in the standard Percentage Method for calculating follow-up rates. The easy to use SPT and CCI methods can be used in tandem to obtain an accurate and tight interval for PTFR. However, the FPT is recommended when event rates and

  4. Does expecting mean achieving? The association between expecting to return to work and recovery in whiplash associated disorders: a population-based prospective cohort study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, Linda J.; David Cassidy, J.

    2009-01-01

    To determine the association between expectations to return to work and self-assessed recovery. Positive expectations predict better outcomes in many health conditions, but to date the relationship between expecting to return to work after traffic-related whiplash-associated disorders and actual recovery has not been reported. We assessed early expectations for return to work in a cohort of 2,335 individuals with traffic-related whiplash injury to the neck. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard analysis we assessed the association between return to work expectations and self-perceived recovery during the first year following the event. After adjusting for the effects of sociodemographic characteristics, initial pain and symptoms, post-crash mood, prior health status and collision-related factors, those who expected to return to work reported global recovery 42% more quickly than those who did not have positive expectations (HRR = 1.42, 95% CI 1.26–1.60). Knowledge of return to work expectation provides an important prognostic tool to clinicians for recovery. PMID:19343376

  5. Single Event Upset Studies Using the ATLAS SCT

    CERN Document Server

    Dafinca, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Weidberg, A R

    2014-01-01

    Single Event Upsets (SEU) are expected to occur during high luminosity running of the ATLAS SemiConductor Tracker (SCT). The SEU cross sections were measured in pion beams with momenta in the range 200 to 465 MeV/c and proton test beams at 24 GeV/c but the extrapolation to LHC conditions is non-trivial because of the range of particle types and momenta. The SEUs studied occur in the p-i-n photodiode and the registers in the ABCD chip. Comparisons between predicted SEU rates and those measured from ATLAS data are presented. The implications for ATLAS operation are discussed

  6. THE ABSOLUTE RATE OF LGRB FORMATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graham, J. F.; Schady, P. [Max-Planck Institute for Extraterrestrial Physics, Giessenbachstrasse 1, D-85748 Garching (Germany)

    2016-06-01

    We estimate the long-duration gamma-ray burst (LGRB) progenitor rate using our recent work on the effects of environmental metallically on LGRB formation in concert with supernovae (SNe) statistics via an approach patterned loosely off the Drake equation. Beginning with the cosmic star formation history, we consider the expected number of broad-line Type Ic events (the SNe type associated with LGRBs) that are in low-metallicity host environments adjusted by the contribution of high-metallicity host environments at a much reduced rate. We then compare this estimate to the observed LGRB rate corrected for instrumental selection effects to provide a combined estimate of the efficiency fraction of these progenitors to produce LGRBs and the fraction of which are beamed in our direction. From this we estimate that an aligned LGRB occurs for approximately every 4000 ± 2000 low-metallically broad-lined SNe Ic. Therefore, if one assumes a semi-nominal beaming factor of 100, then only about one such supernova out of 40 produce an LGRB. Finally, we propose an off-axis LGRB search strategy of targeting only broad-line Type Ic events that occur in low-metallicity hosts for radio observation.

  7. Incidence and management of life-threatening adverse events during cardiac catheterization for congenital heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C Huie; Hegde, Sanjeet; Marshall, Audrey C; Porras, Diego; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Balzer, David T; Beekman, Robert H; Torres, Alejandro; Vincent, Julie A; Moore, John W; Holzer, Ralf; Armsby, Laurie; Bergersen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Continued advancements in congenital cardiac catheterization and interventions have resulted in increased patient and procedural complexity. Anticipation of life-threatening events and required rescue measures is a critical component to preprocedural preparation. We sought to determine the incidence and nature of life-threatening adverse events in congenital and pediatric cardiac catheterization, risk factors, and resources necessary to anticipate and manage events. Data from 8905 cases performed at the 8 participating institutions of the Congenital Cardiac Catheterization Project on Outcomes were captured between 2007 and 2010 [median 1,095/site (range 133-3,802)]. The incidence of all life-threatening events was 2.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.4 %], whereas mortality was 0.28 % (95 % CI 0.18-0.41 %). Fifty-seven life-threatening events required cardiopulmonary resuscitation, whereas 9 % required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Use of a risk adjustment model showed that age events. Using this model, standardized life-threatening event ratios were calculated, thus showing that one institution had a life-threatening event rate greater than expected. Congenital cardiac catheterization and intervention can be performed safely with a low rate of life-threatening events and mortality; preprocedural evaluation of risk may optimize preparation of emergency rescue and bailout procedures. Risk predictors (age < 1, hemodynamic vulnerability, and procedure risk category) can enhance preprocedural patient risk stratification and planning.

  8. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  9. A modelling study of the event-based retention performance of green roof under the hot-humid tropical climate in Kuching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chai, C T; Putuhena, F J; Selaman, O S

    2017-12-01

    The influences of climate on the retention capability of green roof have been widely discussed in existing literature. However, knowledge on how the retention capability of green roof is affected by the tropical climate is limited. This paper highlights the retention performance of the green roof situated in Kuching under hot-humid tropical climatic conditions. Using the green roof water balance modelling approach, this study simulated the hourly runoff generated from a virtual green roof from November 2012 to October 2013 based on past meteorological data. The result showed that the overall retention performance was satisfactory with a mean retention rate of 72.5% from 380 analysed rainfall events but reduced to 12.0% only for the events that potentially trigger the occurrence of flash flood. By performing the Spearman rank's correlation analysis, it was found that the rainfall depth and mean rainfall intensity, individually, had a strong negative correlation with event retention rate, suggesting that the retention rate increases with decreased rainfall depth. The expected direct relationship between retention rate and antecedent dry weather period was found to be event size dependent.

  10. The tell-tale heart: heart rate fluctuations index objective and subjective events during a game of chess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leone, María J; Petroni, Agustín; Fernandez Slezak, Diego; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    During a decision-making process, the body changes. These somatic changes have been related to specific cognitive events and also have been postulated to assist decision-making indexing possible outcomes of different options. We used chess to analyze heart rate (HR) modulations on specific cognitive events. In a chess game, players have a limited time-budget to make about 40 moves (decisions) that can be objectively evaluated and retrospectively assigned to specific subjectively perceived events, such as setting a goal and the process to reach a known goal. We show that HR signals events: it predicts the conception of a plan, the concrete analysis of variations or the likelihood to blunder by fluctuations before to the move, and it reflects reactions, such as a blunder made by the opponent, by fluctuations subsequent to the move. Our data demonstrate that even if HR constitutes a relatively broad marker integrating a myriad of physiological variables, its dynamic is rich enough to reveal relevant episodes of inner thought.

  11. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M . ∼ 6 M o-dot (i.e. nuclei in the range of LISA). We then investigate the regime of strong mass segregation (SMS) for models with two different stellar mass components. Given the most recent stellar mass normalization for the inner parsec of the Galactic centre, SMS has the significant impact of boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ∼10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ∼250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ∼10 2 -7 x 10 2 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5

  12. Event-Associated Oxygen Consumption Rate Increases ca. Five-Fold When Interictal Activity Transforms into Seizure-Like Events In Vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Schoknecht

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal injury due to seizures may result from a mismatch of energy demand and adenosine triphosphate (ATP synthesis. However, ATP demand and oxygen consumption rates have not been accurately determined, yet, for different patterns of epileptic activity, such as interictal and ictal events. We studied interictal-like and seizure-like epileptiform activity induced by the GABAA antagonist bicuculline alone, and with co-application of the M-current blocker XE-991, in rat hippocampal slices. Metabolic changes were investigated based on recording partial oxygen pressure, extracellular potassium concentration, and intracellular flavine adenine dinucleotide (FAD redox potential. Recorded data were used to calculate oxygen consumption and relative ATP consumption rates, cellular ATP depletion, and changes in FAD/FADH2 ratio by applying a reactive-diffusion and a two compartment metabolic model. Oxygen-consumption rates were ca. five times higher during seizure activity than interictal activity. Additionally, ATP consumption was higher during seizure activity (~94% above control than interictal activity (~15% above control. Modeling of FAD transients based on partial pressure of oxygen recordings confirmed increased energy demand during both seizure and interictal activity and predicted actual FAD autofluorescence recordings, thereby validating the model. Quantifying metabolic alterations during epileptiform activity has translational relevance as it may help to understand the contribution of energy supply and demand mismatches to seizure-induced injury.

  13. Tracking Real-Time Changes in Working Memory Updating and Gating with the Event-Based Eye-Blink Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rac-Lubashevsky, R.; Slagter, H.A.; Kessler, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Effective working memory (WM) functioning depends on the gating process that regulates the balance between maintenance and updating of WM. The present study used the event-based eye-blink rate (ebEBR), which presumably reflects phasic striatal dopamine activity, to examine how the cognitive

  14. Underlying Event and B-Hadron Decays in $t\\overline{t}$ Events

    CERN Document Server

    INSPIRE-00175000

    2014-01-01

    We present exploratory studies of the underlying event activity and of fragmentation and hadronization of b quarks using $t\\overline{t}$ candidate events in proton-proton collision data acquired by the CMS experiment. We reconstruct charm mesons in fully charged decay channels from the reconstructed tracks associated with the hadronization of b quarks from the top decay, and study their kinematics relative to the mother jet. A good agreement is found using MadGraph plus the Pythia 6 Tune Z2* simulation. The effects predicted by alternative settings and generators for the characterization of the underlying event are also explored. These results are expected to contribute in the future to more precise measurements in the top quark sector in particular of the top quark mass by either constraining systematic uncertainties related to the modeling of the underlying event in $t\\overline{t}$ events or by paving the way for alternative mass measurement methods.

  15. Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

  16. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Mark A; Mocroft, Amanda; Ryom, Lene

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) events in HIV...

  17. Station Set Residual: Event Classification Using Historical Distribution of Observing Stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procopio, Mike; Lewis, Jennifer; Young, Chris

    2010-05-01

    Analysts working at the International Data Centre in support of treaty monitoring through the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization spend a significant amount of time reviewing hypothesized seismic events produced by an automatic processing system. When reviewing these events to determine their legitimacy, analysts take a variety of approaches that rely heavily on training and past experience. One method used by analysts to gauge the validity of an event involves examining the set of stations involved in the detection of an event. In particular, leveraging past experience, an analyst can say that an event located in a certain part of the world is expected to be detected by Stations A, B, and C. Implicit in this statement is that such an event would usually not be detected by Stations X, Y, or Z. For some well understood parts of the world, the absence of one or more "expected" stations—or the presence of one or more "unexpected" stations—is correlated with a hypothesized event's legitimacy and to its survival to the event bulletin. The primary objective of this research is to formalize and quantify the difference between the observed set of stations detecting some hypothesized event, versus the expected set of stations historically associated with detecting similar nearby events close in magnitude. This Station Set Residual can be quantified in many ways, some of which are correlated with the analysts' determination of whether or not the event is valid. We propose that this Station Set Residual score can be used to screen out certain classes of "false" events produced by automatic processing with a high degree of confidence, reducing the analyst burden. Moreover, we propose that the visualization of the historically expected distribution of detecting stations can be immediately useful as an analyst aid during their review process.

  18. Relationship between medication event rates and the Leapfrog computerized physician order entry evaluation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Alexander A; Keohane, Carol; Lipsitz, Stuart; Zimlichman, Eyal; Amato, Mary; Simon, Steven R; Coffey, Michael; Kaufman, Nathan; Cadet, Bismarck; Schiff, Gordon; Seger, Diane L; Bates, David W

    2013-06-01

    The Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool has been promoted as a means of monitoring computerized physician order entry (CPOE). We sought to determine the relationship between Leapfrog scores and the rates of preventable adverse drug events (ADE) and potential ADE. A cross-sectional study of 1000 adult admissions in five community hospitals from October 1, 2008 to September 30, 2010 was performed. Observed rates of preventable ADE and potential ADE were compared with scores reported by the Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool. The primary outcome was the rate of preventable ADE and the secondary outcome was the composite rate of preventable ADE and potential ADE. Leapfrog performance scores were highly related to the primary outcome. A 43% relative reduction in the rate of preventable ADE was predicted for every 5% increase in Leapfrog scores (rate ratio 0.57; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.88). In absolute terms, four fewer preventable ADE per 100 admissions were predicted for every 5% increase in overall Leapfrog scores (rate difference -4.2; 95% CI -7.4 to -1.1). A statistically significant relationship between Leapfrog scores and the secondary outcome, however, was not detected. Our findings support the use of the Leapfrog tool as a means of evaluating and monitoring CPOE performance after implementation, as addressed by current certification standards. Scores from the Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool closely relate to actual rates of preventable ADE. Leapfrog testing may alert providers to potential vulnerabilities and highlight areas for further improvement.

  19. Soft error rate analysis methodology of multi-Pulse-single-event transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Bin; Huo Mingxue; Xiao Liyi

    2012-01-01

    As transistor feature size scales down, soft errors in combinational logic because of high-energy particle radiation is gaining more and more concerns. In this paper, a combinational logic soft error analysis methodology considering multi-pulse-single-event transients (MPSETs) and re-convergence with multi transient pulses is proposed. In the proposed approach, the voltage pulse produced at the standard cell output is approximated by a triangle waveform, and characterized by three parameters: pulse width, the transition time of the first edge, and the transition time of the second edge. As for the pulse with the amplitude being smaller than the supply voltage, the edge extension technique is proposed. Moreover, an efficient electrical masking model comprehensively considering transition time, delay, width and amplitude is proposed, and an approach using the transition times of two edges and pulse width to compute the amplitude of pulse is proposed. Finally, our proposed firstly-independently-propagating-secondly-mutually-interacting (FIP-SMI) is used to deal with more practical re-convergence gate with multi transient pulses. As for MPSETs, a random generation model of MPSETs is exploratively proposed. Compared to the estimates obtained using circuit level simulations by HSpice, our proposed soft error rate analysis algorithm has 10% errors in SER estimation with speed up of 300 when the single-pulse-single-event transient (SPSET) is considered. We have also demonstrated the runtime and SER decrease with the increment of P0 using designs from the ISCAS-85 benchmarks. (authors)

  20. Slow-slip events on the Whillans Ice Plain, Antarctica, described using rate-and-state friction as an ice stream sliding law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipovsky, Bradley Paul; Dunham, Eric M.

    2017-04-01

    The Whillans Ice Plain (WIP), Antarctica, experiences twice daily tidally modulated stick-slip cycles. Slip events last about 30 min, have sliding velocities as high as ˜0.5 mm/s (15 km/yr), and have total slip ˜0.5 m. Slip events tend to occur during falling ocean tide: just after high tide and just before low tide. To reproduce these characteristics, we use rate-and-state friction, which is commonly used to simulate tectonic faulting, as an ice stream sliding law. This framework describes the evolving strength of the ice-bed interface throughout stick-slip cycles. We present simulations that resolve the cross-stream dimension using a depth-integrated treatment of an elastic ice layer loaded by tides and steady ice inflow. Steady sliding with rate-weakening friction is conditionally stable with steady sliding occurring for sufficiently narrow ice streams relative to a nucleation length. Stick-slip cycles occur when the ice stream is wider than the nucleation length or, equivalently, when effective pressures exceed a critical value. Ice streams barely wider than the nucleation length experience slow-slip events, and our simulations suggest that the WIP is in this slow-slip regime. Slip events on the WIP show a sense of propagation, and we reproduce this behavior by introducing a rate-strengthening region in the center of the otherwise rate-weakening ice stream. If pore pressures are raised above a critical value, our simulations predict that the WIP would exhibit quasi-steady tidally modulated sliding as observed on other ice streams. This study validates rate-and-state friction as a sliding law to describe ice stream sliding styles.

  1. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  2. Semiquantitative SPECT myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole in patients unable to exercise. Event rate during 4 years of follow up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balestrini, V.R.; Arja, V.J.; Sandrin, A.L.; Calvo, G.R.; Gomez Bosh, Z.; Quiroga, W.; Balestrini, C.E.; Joekes, S.

    2002-01-01

    The increasingly numbers of patients (P) that can't reach an adequate level of exercise in order to evaluate CAD, lead us to use pharmacological and technical tools available for this subgroup of P. Aim: evaluate the prognostic significance of myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging with pharmacological stress in P without LBBB, unable to exercise. Material and Methods: 209 P were included. Mean age: 65 years old (39-88), male 66%. Clinical: Pre test likelihood 8: 28%; SDS 0 and SRS 0: 31.7%; SDS 0 + SRS >=1: 21%; SDS >=1: 47.3%. III) Follow up: 13 patients were early re-vascularized induced by SPECT study results, 10 patients get lost and 186 were follow up by a mean 1086 days. Cumulative events rate: 1st year SCE 9.7%, HCE 1.6%; 2nd year SCE 14%, HCE 4.3%; 3rd year SCE 17.7%, HCE 5.4%; 4th year SCE 21%, HCE 5,4%. Scintigraphic indices and events rate relationship are presented. Conclusion: There was a relationship between scintigraphic indices and hard cardiac events. The semiquantitative myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole stress was a safe test and useful to discriminate groups of P with different risk of events

  3. Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Escobedo, Miguel A.; Iancu, Edmond

    2016-01-01

    We develop the event-by-event picture of the gluon distribution produced via medium-induced gluon branching by an energetic jet which propagates through a dense QCD medium. A typical event is characterized by the production of a large number of soft gluons which propagate at large angles with respect to the jet axis and which collectively carry a substantial amount of energy. By explicitly computing 2-gluon correlations, we demonstrate the existence of large event-by-event fluctuations, which reflect the stochastic nature of the branching process. For the two quantities that we have investigated — the energy loss at large angles and the soft gluon multiplicity —, the dispersion is parametrically as large as the respective expectation value. We identify interesting scaling laws, which suggest that the multiplicity distribution should exhibit KNO (Koba-Nielsen-Olesen) scaling. A similar scaling is known to hold for a jet branching in the vacuum, but the medium-induced distribution is found to be considerably broader. We predict that event-by-event measurements of the di-jet asymmetry in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC should observe large fluctuations in the number of soft hadrons propagating at large angles and also in the total energy carried by these hadrons.

  4. A Tool for Empirical Forecasting of Major Flares, Coronal Mass Ejections, and Solar Particle Events from a Proxy of Active-Region Free Magnetic Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, A. F.; Falconer, D. A.; Adams, J. H., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    This presentation describes a new forecasting tool developed for and is currently being tested by NASA s Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at JSC, which is responsible for the monitoring and forecasting of radiation exposure levels of astronauts. The new software tool is designed for the empirical forecasting of M and X-class flares, coronal mass ejections, as well as solar energetic particle events. Its algorithm is based on an empirical relationship between the various types of events rates and a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy, determined from a data set of approx.40,000 active-region magnetograms from approx.1,300 active regions observed by SOHO/MDI that have known histories of flare, coronal mass ejection, and solar energetic particle event production. The new tool automatically extracts each strong-field magnetic areas from an MDI full-disk magnetogram, identifies each as an NOAA active region, and measures a proxy of the active region s free magnetic energy from the extracted magnetogram. For each active region, the empirical relationship is then used to convert the free magnetic energy proxy into an expected event rate. The expected event rate in turn can be readily converted into the probability that the active region will produce such an event in a given forward time window. Descriptions of the datasets, algorithm, and software in addition to sample applications and a validation test are presented. Further development and transition of the new tool in anticipation of SDO/HMI is briefly discussed.

  5. Decennial trends and inequalities in healthy life expectancy: The HUNT Study, Norway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storeng, Siri H; Krokstad, Steinar; Westin, Steinar; Sund, Erik R

    2018-02-01

    Norway is experiencing a rising life expectancy combined with an increasing dependency ratio - the ratio of those outside over those within the working force. To provide data relevant for future health policy we wanted to study trends in total and healthy life expectancy in a Norwegian population over three decades (1980s, 1990s and 2000s), both overall and across gender and educational groups. Data were obtained from the HUNT Study, and the Norwegian Educational Database. We calculated total life expectancy and used the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancies based on self-rated health and self-reported longstanding limiting illness. The change in health expectancies was decomposed into mortality and disability effects. During three consecutive decades we found an increase in life expectancy for 30-year-olds (~7 years) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health (~6 years), but time without longstanding limiting illness increased less (1.5 years). Women could expect to live longer than men, but the extra life years for females were spent in poor self-rated health and with longstanding limiting illness. Differences in total life expectancy between educational groups decreased, whereas differences in expected lifetime in self-rated good health and lifetime without longstanding limiting illness increased. The increase in total life expectancy was accompanied by an increasing number of years spent in good self-rated health but more years with longstanding limiting illness. This suggests increasing health care needs for people with chronic diseases, given an increasing number of elderly. Socioeconomic health inequalities remain a challenge for increasing pensioning age.

  6. Sample Size Estimation for Negative Binomial Regression Comparing Rates of Recurrent Events with Unequal Follow-Up Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongqiang

    2015-01-01

    A sample size formula is derived for negative binomial regression for the analysis of recurrent events, in which subjects can have unequal follow-up time. We obtain sharp lower and upper bounds on the required size, which is easy to compute. The upper bound is generally only slightly larger than the required size, and hence can be used to approximate the sample size. The lower and upper size bounds can be decomposed into two terms. The first term relies on the mean number of events in each group, and the second term depends on two factors that measure, respectively, the extent of between-subject variability in event rates, and follow-up time. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. An application of our formulae to a multiple sclerosis trial is provided.

  7. Expectations and limitations due to brachial plexus injury: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, Carol A; Lee, Steve K; Dy, Christopher J; Landers, Zoe A; Model, Zina; Wolfe, Scott W

    2015-12-01

    This study described physical and psychosocial limitations associated with adult brachial plexus injuries (BPI) and patients' expectations of BPI surgery. During in-person interviews, preoperative patients were asked about expectations of surgery and preoperative and postoperative patients were asked about limitations due to BPI. Postoperative patients also rated improvement in condition after surgery. Data were analyzed with qualitative and quantitative techniques. Ten preoperative and 13 postoperative patients were interviewed; mean age was 37 years, 19 were men, all were employed/students, and most injuries were due to trauma. Preoperative patients cited several main expectations, including pain-related issues, and improvement in arm movement, self-care, family interactions, and global life function. Work-related expectations were tailored to employment type. Preoperative and postoperative patients reported that pain, altered sensation, difficulty managing self-care, becoming physically and financially dependent, and disability in work/school were major issues. All patients reported making major compensations, particularly using the uninjured arm. Most reported multiple mental health effects, were distressed with long recovery times, were self-conscious about appearance, and avoided public situations. Additional stresses were finding and paying for BPI surgery. Some reported BPI impacted overall physical health, life priorities, and decision-making processes. Four postoperative patients reported hardly any improvement, four reported some/a good deal, and five reported a great deal of improvement. BPI is a life-altering event affecting physical function, mental well-being, financial situation, relationships, self-image, and plans for the future. This study contributes to clinical practice by highlighting topics to address to provide comprehensive BPI patient-centered care.

  8. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  9. Expectancies, socioeconomic status, and self-rated health: use of the simplified TOMCATS Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odéen, Magnus; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres; Leineweber, Constanze; Eriksen, Hege R; Ursin, Holger

    2013-06-01

    Coping has traditionally been measured with inventories containing many items meant to identify specific coping strategies. An alternative is to develop a shorter inventory that focusses on coping expectancies which may determine the extent to which an individual attempts to cope actively. This paper explores the usefulness and validity of a simplified seven-item questionnaire (Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, TOMCATS) for response outcome expectancies defined either as positive ("coping"), negative ("hopelessness"), or none ("helplessness"). The definitions are based on the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS; Ursin and Eriksen, Psychoneuroendocrinology, 29(5):567–92, 2004). The questionnaire was tested in two different samples. First, the questionnaire was compared with a traditional test of coping and then tested for validity in relation to socioeconomic differences in self-reported health. The first study was a comparison of the brief TOMCATS with a short version of the Utrecht Coping List (UCL; Eriksen et al., Scand J Psychol, 38(3):175–82, 1997). Both questionnaires were tested in a population of 1,704 Norwegian municipality workers. The second study was a cross-sectional analysis of TOMCATS, subjective and objective socioeconomic status, and health in a representative sample of the Swedish working population in 2003–2005 (N = 11,441). In the first study, the coping item in the TOMCATS questionnaire showed an expected significant positive correlation with the UCL factors of instrumental mastery-oriented coping and negative correlations with passive and depressive scores. There were also the expected correlations for the helplessness and hopelessness scores, but there was no clear distinction between helplessness and hopelessness in the way they correlated with the UCL. In the second study, the coping item in TOMCATS and the three-item helplessness scores showed clear and monotonous gradients over

  10. Inequalities in US Life Expectancy by Area Unemployment Level, 1990–2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Gopal K.; Siahpush, Mohammad

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the association between unemployment and life expectancy in the United States during 1990–2010. Census-based unemployment rates were linked to US county-level mortality data. Life expectancies were calculated by age, sex, race, and unemployment level during 1990–2010. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was consistently lower in areas with higher unemployment rates. In 2006–2010, those in areas with high unemployment rates (≥9%) had a life expectancy of 76.9 years, compared with 80.7 years for those in areas with low unemployment rates (unemployment and life expectancy was stronger for men than for women. Life expectancy ranged from 69.9 years among black men in high unemployment areas to 90.0 years among Asian/Pacific Islander women in low unemployment areas. Disparities persisted over time. In 1990–1992, life expectancy was 4.7 years shorter in high unemployment than in low unemployment areas. In 2006–2010, the life expectancy difference between the lowest and highest unemployment areas decreased to 3.8 years. Heart disease, cancer, homicide, unintentional injuries, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and liver cirrhosis contributed most to the lower life expectancy in high unemployment areas. High unemployment areas recorded larger gains in life expectancy than low unemployment areas, contributing to the narrowing gap during 1990–2010. PMID:27073716

  11. Game Day Alcohol Expectancies among College Students from a University in the Southeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassman, Tavis; Miller, Jeff; Miller, E. Maureen; Wohlwend, Jennifer; Reindl, Diana

    2012-01-01

    Background: The alcohol consumption associated with college sporting events depicts a public health challenge. Purpose: The aim of this investigation involved assessing the alcohol expectancies among college students associated with home football games and which of these expectancies was most predictive of high-risk drinking. Methods: Researchers…

  12. Single Event Upset Studies Using the ATLAS SCT

    CERN Document Server

    Weidberg, A R; The ATLAS collaboration

    2013-01-01

    Single Event Upsets (SEU) are expected to occur during high luminosity running of the ATLAS SemiConductor Tracker (SCT). The SEU cross sections were measured in pion beams with momenta in the range 200 to 465 MeV/c and proton test beams at 24 GeV/c but the extrapolation to LHC conditions is non-trivial because of the range of particle types and momenta. The SEUs studied occur in the \\emph{p-i-n} photodiode and the registers in the ABCD chip. Comparisons between predicted SEU rates and those measured from ATLAS data are presented. The implications for ATLAS operation are discussed.

  13. Students’ Expectations and Experiences of Meaningful Simulation-Based Medical Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tuulikki Keskitalo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate students’ expectations and experiences of meaningful learning in simulation-based learning environments. We set the following research question: How do students’ experiences of meaningful simulation-based learning correspond to their expectations? The students’ (n = 87; male 51, female 36 pre- and post-questionnaires were analyzed using statistical methods. The results indicated that students’ expectations and experiences of meaningful learning were positive, and for most statements, there were statistically significant differences between the mean pre-questionnaire rating and the mean post-questionnaire rating, thereby indicating that students’ actual experiences of simulation-based learning were more positive than their expectations. Thus, students’ experiences exceeded their expectations.

  14. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2016-04-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

  15. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  16. ATLAS Event Display: Run 2 Heavy Ion Collision

    CERN Multimedia

    ATLAS Collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Event display of a lead-lead collision with a large transverse momentum photon. In this event, the expected balancing jet is not visible by eye, consistent with it being degraded by its passage through the quark-gluon plasma.

  17. Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciano, Déborah; Bentin, Shlomo; Deouell, Leon Y

    2018-05-01

    After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al. (2016)). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A change in coral extension rates and stable isotopes after El Niño-induced coral bleaching and regional stress events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzinger, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Dullo, W.-Chr.; Zinke, J.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.

    2016-09-01

    Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems threatened with effective collapse under rapid climate change, in particular by recent increases in ocean temperatures. Coral bleaching has occurred during major El Niño warming events, at times leading to the die-off of entire coral reefs. Here we present records of stable isotopic composition, Sr/Ca ratios and extension rate (1940-2004) in coral aragonite from a northern Venezuelan site, where reefs were strongly impacted by bleaching following the 1997-98 El Niño. We assess the impact of past warming events on coral extension rates and geochemical proxies. A marked decrease in coral (Pseudodiploria strigosa) extension rates coincides with a baseline shift to more negative values in oxygen and carbon isotopic composition after 1997-98, while a neighboring coral (Siderastrea siderea) recovered to pre-bleaching extension rates simultaneously. However, other stressors, besides high temperature, might also have influenced coral physiology and geochemistry. Coastal Venezuelan reefs were exposed to a series of extreme environmental fluctuations since the mid-1990s, i.e. upwelling, extreme rainfall and sediment input from landslides. This work provides important new data on the potential impacts of multiple regional stress events on coral isotopic compositions and raises questions about the long-term influence on coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions.

  19. Stress reaction process-based hierarchical recognition algorithm for continuous intrusion events in optical fiber prewarning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Hongquan; Yuan, Shijiao; Wang, Yanping; Yang, Dan

    2018-04-01

    To improve the recognition performance of optical fiber prewarning system (OFPS), this study proposed a hierarchical recognition algorithm (HRA). Compared with traditional methods, which employ only a complex algorithm that includes multiple extracted features and complex classifiers to increase the recognition rate with a considerable decrease in recognition speed, HRA takes advantage of the continuity of intrusion events, thereby creating a staged recognition flow inspired by stress reaction. HRA is expected to achieve high-level recognition accuracy with less time consumption. First, this work analyzed the continuity of intrusion events and then presented the algorithm based on the mechanism of stress reaction. Finally, it verified the time consumption through theoretical analysis and experiments, and the recognition accuracy was obtained through experiments. Experiment results show that the processing speed of HRA is 3.3 times faster than that of a traditional complicated algorithm and has a similar recognition rate of 98%. The study is of great significance to fast intrusion event recognition in OFPS.

  20. Age-specific vibrissae growth rates: a tool for determining the timing of ecologically important events in Steller sea lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rea, L.D.; Christ, A.M.; Hayden, A.B.; Stegall, V.K.; Farley, S.D.; Stricker, Craig A.; Mellish, J.E.; Maniscalco, John M.; Waite, J.N.; Burkanov, V.N.; Pitcher, K.W.

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lions (SSL; Eumetopias jubatus) grow their vibrissae continually, providing a multiyear record suitable for ecological and physiological studies based on stable isotopes. An accurate age-specific vibrissae growth rate is essential for registering a chronology along the length of the record, and for interpreting the timing of ecologically important events. We utilized four methods to estimate the growth rate of vibrissae in fetal, rookery pup, young-of-the-year (YOY), yearling, subadult, and adult SSL. The majority of vibrissae were collected from SSL live-captured in Alaska and Russia between 2000 and 2013 (n = 1,115), however, vibrissae were also collected from six adult SSL found dead on haul-outs and rookeries during field excursions to increase the sample size of this underrepresented age group. Growth rates of vibrissae were generally slower in adult (0.44 ± 0.15 cm/mo) and subadult (0.61 ± 0.10 cm/mo) SSL than in YOY (0.87 ± 0.28 cm/mo) and fetal (0.73 ± 0.05 cm/mo) animals, but there was high individual variability in these growth rates within each age group. Some variability in vibrissae growth rates was attributed to the somatic growth rate of YOY sea lions between capture events (P = 0.014, r2 = 0.206, n = 29).

  1. Evidence for a neutrino-induced dilepton event in the A.N.L. 12-foot bubble chamber

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garfinkel, A.F.

    1976-01-01

    The event νp(n/sub s/) → μ - pπ + π - π 0 e + ν/sub e/(n /sub s/), found in a bubble chamber, is considered. It is concluded that this event is clearly unusual when explained in terms of normal neutrino interactions. But if it is an example of dilepton production, it occurs at the expected rate of single lepton production. If it is due to the weak decay of a new baryon, the baryon mass appears to be near 2 GeV/c 2 and is unlikely to be as high as 2.4 GeV/c 2

  2. Inequalities in US Life Expectancy by Area Unemployment Level, 1990–2010

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gopal K. Singh

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This study examined the association between unemployment and life expectancy in the United States during 1990–2010. Census-based unemployment rates were linked to US county-level mortality data. Life expectancies were calculated by age, sex, race, and unemployment level during 1990–2010. Differences in life expectancy were decomposed by age and cause of death. Life expectancy was consistently lower in areas with higher unemployment rates. In 2006–2010, those in areas with high unemployment rates (≥9% had a life expectancy of 76.9 years, compared with 80.7 years for those in areas with low unemployment rates (<3%. The association between unemployment and life expectancy was stronger for men than for women. Life expectancy ranged from 69.9 years among black men in high unemployment areas to 90.0 years among Asian/Pacific Islander women in low unemployment areas. Disparities persisted over time. In 1990–1992, life expectancy was 4.7 years shorter in high unemployment than in low unemployment areas. In 2006–2010, the life expectancy difference between the lowest and highest unemployment areas decreased to 3.8 years. Heart disease, cancer, homicide, unintentional injuries, diabetes, HIV/AIDS, and liver cirrhosis contributed most to the lower life expectancy in high unemployment areas. High unemployment areas recorded larger gains in life expectancy than low unemployment areas, contributing to the narrowing gap during 1990–2010.

  3. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women......Background: The population of Greenland comprises almost 31 000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Methods: Partial...... life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from...

  4. Wireless AE Event and Environmental Monitoring for Wind Turbine Blades at Low Sampling Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzid, Omar M.; Tian, Gui Y.; Cumanan, K.; Neasham, J.

    Integration of acoustic wireless technology in structural health monitoring (SHM) applications introduces new challenges due to requirements of high sampling rates, additional communication bandwidth, memory space, and power resources. In order to circumvent these challenges, this chapter proposes a novel solution through building a wireless SHM technique in conjunction with acoustic emission (AE) with field deployment on the structure of a wind turbine. This solution requires a low sampling rate which is lower than the Nyquist rate. In addition, features extracted from aliased AE signals instead of reconstructing the original signals on-board the wireless nodes are exploited to monitor AE events, such as wind, rain, strong hail, and bird strike in different environmental conditions in conjunction with artificial AE sources. Time feature extraction algorithm, in addition to the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is used to extract and classify the relevant information, which in turn is used to classify or recognise a testing condition that is represented by the response signals. This proposed novel technique yields a significant data reduction during the monitoring process of wind turbine blades.

  5. Do co-intoxicants increase adverse event rates in the first 24 hours in patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirakbari, Seyed Mostafa; Innes, Grant D; Christenson, Jim; Tilley, Jessica; Wong, Hubert

    2003-01-01

    Patients frequently arrive in emergency departments (EDs) after being resuscitated from opioid overdose. Autopsy studies suggest that multidrug intoxication is a major risk factor for adverse outcomes after acute heroin overdose in patients. If this is true, there may be high-risk drug combinations that identify patients who require more intensive monitoring and prolonged observation. Our objective was to determine the impact of co-intoxication with alcohol, cocaine, or CNS depressant drugs on short-term adverse event rates in patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose. Data were extracted from the database of a prospective opioid overdose cohort study conducted between May 1997 and 1999. Patients were prospectively enrolled if they received naloxone for presumed opioid overdose. Investigators gathered clinical, demographic, and other predictor variables, including co-intoxicants used. Patients were followed to identify prespecified adverse outcome events occurring within 24 h, and multiple logistic regression was used to determine the association of concomitant drug use on short-term adverse event rates. Of 1155 patients studied, 58 (5%) had pure opioid overdose and 922 (80%) reported co-intoxicants, including alcohol, cocaine, and CNS depressants. Overall, out of 1056 patients with known outcome status there were 123 major adverse events (11.6%) and 194 minor adverse events (18.4%). After adjustment for age, gender, HIV status, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease and diabetes, we found that coadministration of alcohol, cocaine, or CNS depressants, alone or in combination, was not associated with increased risk of death or adverse events during the 24 h follow-up period. In patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose, short-term outcomes are similar for patients with pure opioid overdose and multidrug intoxications. A history of cointoxication cannot be used to identify high-risk patients who require more intensive ED monitoring or prolonged

  6. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  7. Dependence of the dayside magnetopause reconnection rate on local conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shan; Kistler, Lynn M.; Mouikis, Christopher G.; Petrinec, Steven M.

    2015-08-01

    We estimate the reconnection rates for eight dayside magnetopause reconnection events observed by the Cluster spacecraft and compare them with the predictions of the Cassak-Shay Formula (Rcs) Cassak and Shay (2007). The measured reconnection rate is determined by calculating the product of the inflow velocity and magnetic field in the magnetosheath inflow region. The predicted reconnection rate is calculated using the plasma parameters on both sides of the current layer, including the contributions of magnetosheath H+, magnetospheric hot H+ and O+, and magnetospheric cold ions. The measured reconnection rates show clear correlations with Rcs with an aspect ratio of 0.07. The O+ and cold ions can contribute up to ~30% of the mass density, which may reduce the reconnection rate for individual events. However, the variation of the reconnection rate is dominated by the variation of the magnetosheath parameters. In addition, we calculated the predicted reconnection rate using only magnetosheath parameters (Rsh). The correlation of the measured rate with Rsh was better than the correlation with Rcs, with an aspect ratio of 0.09. This might indicate deviations from the Cassak-Shay theory caused by the asymmetric reconnection structure and kinetic effects of different inflow populations. A better aspect ratio is expected to be between the ones determined using Rcs and Rsh. The aspect ratio does not show a clear dependence on the O+ concentration, likely because the O+ contribution is too small in these events. The aspect ratio also does not show a clear correlation with density asymmetry or guide field.

  8. Importance of background rates of disease in assessment of vaccine safety during mass immunisation with pandemic H1N1 influenza vaccines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Steven; Eskola, Juhani; Siegrist, Claire-Anne; Halsey, Neal; MacDonald, Noni; Law, Barbara; Miller, Elizabeth; Andrews, Nick; Stowe, Julia; Salmon, Daniel; Vannice, Kirsten; Izurieta, Hector S; Akhtar, Aysha; Gold, Mike; Oselka, Gabriel; Zuber, Patrick; Pfeifer, Dina; Vellozzi, Claudia

    2010-01-01

    Because of the advent of a new influenza A H1N1 strain, many countries have begun mass immunisation programmes. Awareness of the background rates of possible adverse events will be a crucial part of assessment of possible vaccine safety concerns and will help to separate legitimate safety concerns from events that are temporally associated with but not caused by vaccination. We identified background rates of selected medical events for several countries. Rates of disease events varied by age, sex, method of ascertainment, and geography. Highly visible health conditions, such as Guillain-Barré syndrome, spontaneous abortion, or even death, will occur in coincident temporal association with novel influenza vaccination. On the basis of the reviewed data, if a cohort of 10 million individuals was vaccinated in the UK, 21·5 cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome and 5·75 cases of sudden death would be expected to occur within 6 weeks of vaccination as coincident background cases. In female vaccinees in the USA, 86·3 cases of optic neuritis per 10 million population would be expected within 6 weeks of vaccination. 397 per 1 million vaccinated pregnant women would be predicted to have a spontaneous abortion within 1 day of vaccination. PMID:19880172

  9. Anomalous Kolar events revisited: Dark matter?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-03-06

    Mar 6, 2014 ... 2.3 km at KGF had a penetrating track and an associated shower. ... Summary of the three events reported in 1986. The track and shower energies are given in GeV. Event. Penetrating. Shower. Opening. Vertex number ... energy density in the solar system is expected to be in the range of GeV/cc [16]. If the.

  10. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition; La escala internacional de sucesos nucleares (INES) manual del usuario. Edicion de 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request.

  11. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    experiments and analysis of population time series and we explain why published valuesmay have overestimated the rates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgentthan reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on theirmarine ecosystems...

  12. Understanding the contribution of suicide to life expectancy in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aggie Noah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: South Korea has the highest rate and highest rate of increase in suicide among developed countries. The suicide epidemic in Korea is an anomaly, and suicide rates are high for both men and women, with no signs of decreasing. Yet we do not know the extent to which suicide has reduced life expectancy in Korea. Objective: We investigated whether and to what extent the rapid increase in suicide has contributed to changes in Korean life expectancy, a key indicator of population health. Methods: We used a recently developed decomposition method that separates the contribution of suicide's effect on change in life expectancy into two parts: that due to change in the overall suicide incidence rate and that due to change in the mean age of suicide victims. Results: From 1995 to 2010, life expectancy increased by 6.5 years in Korea, with change in most causes of death contributing to its growth. We nonetheless find, as expected, that the rise in suicides reduced the increase in life expectancy from 1995 to 2010, so life expectancy in Korea is about 0.21 years lower than it would have been without the increase in suicides. Moreover, had the age of suicide victims remained stable, we project that Korea's life expectancy would be fully 0.70 years lower than it is. Conclusions: Although the growth in suicide was the largest single factor slowing the rise in Korean life expectancy, the effect would have been even larger had the age of suicide victims not increased.

  13. Prior Expectations Evoke Stimulus Templates in the Primary Visual Cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, P.; Failing, F.M.; de Lange, F.P.

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to rhythmic stimulation results in facilitated responses to events that appear in-phase with the rhythm and modulation of anticipatory and target-evoked brain activity, presumably reflecting "exogenous," unintentional temporal expectations. However, the extent to which this effect is

  14. Robust non-parametric one-sample tests for the analysis of recurrent events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebora, Paola; Galimberti, Stefania; Valsecchi, Maria Grazia

    2010-12-30

    One-sample non-parametric tests are proposed here for inference on recurring events. The focus is on the marginal mean function of events and the basis for inference is the standardized distance between the observed and the expected number of events under a specified reference rate. Different weights are considered in order to account for various types of alternative hypotheses on the mean function of the recurrent events process. A robust version and a stratified version of the test are also proposed. The performance of these tests was investigated through simulation studies under various underlying event generation processes, such as homogeneous and nonhomogeneous Poisson processes, autoregressive and renewal processes, with and without frailty effects. The robust versions of the test have been shown to be suitable in a wide variety of event generating processes. The motivating context is a study on gene therapy in a very rare immunodeficiency in children, where a major end-point is the recurrence of severe infections. Robust non-parametric one-sample tests for recurrent events can be useful to assess efficacy and especially safety in non-randomized studies or in epidemiological studies for comparison with a standard population. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. CONNECTING FLARES AND TRANSIENT MASS-LOSS EVENTS IN MAGNETICALLY ACTIVE STARS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Osten, Rachel A. [Space Telescope Science Institute 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Wolk, Scott J., E-mail: osten@stsci.edu [Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street, Cambridge MA 02138 (United States)

    2015-08-10

    We explore the ramification of associating the energetics of extreme magnetic reconnection events with transient mass-loss in a stellar analogy with solar eruptive events. We establish energy partitions relative to the total bolometric radiated flare energy for different observed components of stellar flares and show that there is rough agreement for these values with solar flares. We apply an equipartition between the bolometric radiated flare energy and kinetic energy in an accompanying mass ejection, seen in solar eruptive events and expected from reconnection. This allows an integrated flare rate in a particular waveband to be used to estimate the amount of associated transient mass-loss. This approach is supported by a good correspondence between observational flare signatures on high flaring rate stars and the Sun, which suggests a common physical origin. If the frequent and extreme flares that young solar-like stars and low-mass stars experience are accompanied by transient mass-loss in the form of coronal mass ejections, then the cumulative effect of this mass-loss could be large. We find that for young solar-like stars and active M dwarfs, the total mass lost due to transient magnetic eruptions could have significant impacts on disk evolution, and thus planet formation, and also exoplanet habitability.

  16. Prolonged cardiac effects of momentary assessed stressful events and worry episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pieper, Suzanne; Brosschot, Jos F; van der Leeden, Rien; Thayer, Julian F

    2010-07-01

    To test the hypothesize that increased heart rate (HR) and decreased heart rate variability (HRV) are not only due to concurrent stressful events and worries but also to stressors and worries occurring in the preceding hours or stressors anticipated to occur in the next hour. Worry was expected to mediate at least part of the prolonged effects of stressors. Ambulatory HR and HRV of 73 teachers were recorded for 4 days, during which the participants reported occurrence and duration of worry episodes and stressful events on an hourly basis, using computerized diaries. Multilevel regression models were used, accounting for effects of several biobehavioral variables. Stressful events were not associated with changes in HR or HRV. However, worry episodes had effects on concurrent HR and HRV (2.55 beats/minute; -5.76 milliseconds) and HR and HRV in the succeeding hour (3.05 beats/minute; -5.80 milliseconds) and 2 hours later (1.52 beats/minute; -3.14 milliseconds). These findings were independent of emotions, physical activity, posture, and other biobehavioral factors. Worry has effects on cardiac activity, and these effects were still visible after 2 hours. The latter finding suggests that a considerable part of prolonged activation may be induced by unconscious stress-related cognition.

  17. Proportional chambers and multiwire drift chambers at high rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walenta, A.H.

    1977-01-01

    The high event and particle rates expected for ISABELLE intersecting storage rings raise the question whether PWC's and drift chambers, now widely in use in experiments, still can operate under such conditions. Various effects depend on the number of avalanches produced per length of wire N and the size of the avalanche Q, i.e., on the number of positive ions created in an avalanche. Therefore the important parameter for the following discussion is the product QN. The minimum Q is determined by the type and noise level of preamplifiers used. Examples are given for a typical low noise amplifier as well as for a typical integrated ''cheap'' amplifier. The rate/wire length N depends on the chamber arrangement, wire spacing, etc. In multiwire drift chambers, a single wire shows space-charge effects reducing the pulse height by 1% at a rate of N = 7 x 10 3 mm -1 sec -1 . At a rate of N approximately equal to 10 5 mm -1 sec -1 an efficiency loss of the order of 1% was noticed. The aging effect due to deposits on the anode wire can be reduced using low noise amplifiers and low gas gain to such an extent that a lifetime of about half a year at ISABELLE can be expected. The use of conventional cheap preamplifiers will result in a typical lifetime of about 30 days. Improvements are probable. The time resolution of Δt/sub r/ = 4 nsec fwhm seems adequate for event rates of 10 7 sec -1 . The memory time Δt/sub m/ greater than or equal to 100 nsec may cause serious problems for pattern recognition depending on layout and readout. The use of induced signals on cathode pads, thus reading out shorter parts of the wire, can solve the problem

  18. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems....

  19. Boarding is associated with higher rates of medication delays and adverse events but fewer laboratory-related delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sri-On, Jiraporn; Chang, Yuchiao; Curley, David P; Camargo, Carlos A; Weissman, Joel S; Singer, Sara J; Liu, Shan W

    2014-09-01

    Hospital crowding and emergency department (ED) boarding are large and growing problems. To date, there has been a paucity of information regarding the quality of care received by patients boarding in the ED compared with the care received by patients on an inpatient unit. We compared the rate of delays and adverse events at the event level that occur while boarding in the ED vs while on an inpatient unit. This study was a secondary analysis of data from medical record review and administrative databases at 2 urban academic teaching hospitals from August 1, 2004, through January 31, 2005. We measured delayed repeat cardiac enzymes, delayed partial thromboplastin time level checks, delayed antibiotic administration, delayed administration of home medications, and adverse events. We compared the incidence of events during ED boarding vs while on an inpatient unit. Among 1431 patient medical records, we identified 1016 events. Emergency department boarding was associated with an increased risk of home medication delays (risk ratio [RR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.88), delayed antibiotic administration (RR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.72-3.52), and adverse events (RR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.15-4.72). On the contrary, ED boarding was associated with fewer delays in repeat cardiac enzymes (RR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.09-0.27) and delayed partial thromboplastin time checks (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96). Compared with inpatient units, ED boarding was associated with more medication-related delays and adverse events but fewer laboratory-related delays. Until we can eliminate ED boarding, it is critical to identify areas for improvement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Analyzing System on A Chip Single Event Upset Responses using Single Event Upset Data, Classical Reliability Models, and Space Environment Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Melanie; LaBel, Kenneth; Campola, Michael; Xapsos, Michael

    2017-01-01

    We are investigating the application of classical reliability performance metrics combined with standard single event upset (SEU) analysis data. We expect to relate SEU behavior to system performance requirements. Our proposed methodology will provide better prediction of SEU responses in harsh radiation environments with confidence metrics. single event upset (SEU), single event effect (SEE), field programmable gate array devises (FPGAs)

  1. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  2. Significant event of patient radiation protection in radiotherapy (criterion 2.1): declaration and rating on the ASN-SFRO scale - ASN guide no. 16 - Release of 17/07/2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This document is an update of the previous version from October 2010. It brings together all the tools for the management of a significant event in radiation protection concerning a patient in radiotherapy. It contains the declaration form, a model for the reporting of significant events, and the ASN-SFRO scale which allows the event to be rated. After a presentation of the regulatory context and references, of the scope of application, this guide addresses the declaration of a significant event: general principles, definition of the 2.1 criterion, examples, delays and modalities of declaration, addressees of a declaration. It addresses the reporting of a significant event: general principles, sending delays and modalities. It addresses the rating on the ASN-SFRO scale: general principles, scale, and rating process. The last part deals with public information

  3. Predictions for microlensing planetary events from core accretion theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Wei; Mao, Shude; Penny, Matthew; Gould, Andrew; Gendron, Rieul

    2014-01-01

    We conduct the first microlensing simulation in the context of a planet formation model. The planet population is taken from the Ida and Lin core accretion model for 0.3 M ☉ stars. With 6690 microlensing events, we find that for a simplified Korea Microlensing Telescopes Network (KMTNet), the fraction of planetary events is 2.9%, out of which 5.5% show multiple-planet signatures. The numbers of super-Earths, super-Neptunes, and super-Jupiters detected are expected to be almost equal. Our simulation shows that high-magnification events and massive planets are favored by planet detections, which is consistent with previous expectation. However, we notice that extremely high-magnification events are less sensitive to planets, which is possibly because the 10 minute sampling of KMTNet is not intensive enough to capture the subtle anomalies that occur near the peak. This suggests that while KMTNet observations can be systematically analyzed without reference to any follow-up data, follow-up observations will be essential in extracting the full science potential of very high magnification events. The uniformly high-cadence observations expected for KMTNet also result in ∼55% of all detected planets not being caustic crossing, and more low-mass planets even down to Mars mass being detected via planetary caustics. We also find that the distributions of orbital inclinations and planet mass ratios in multiple-planet events agree with the intrinsic distributions.

  4. Predictions for microlensing planetary events from core accretion theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Wei; Mao, Shude [National Astronomical Observatories, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 20A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing 100012 (China); Penny, Matthew; Gould, Andrew [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, 140 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Gendron, Rieul, E-mail: weizhu@astronomy.ohio-state.edu [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, University of Manchester, Alan Turing Building, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2014-06-10

    We conduct the first microlensing simulation in the context of a planet formation model. The planet population is taken from the Ida and Lin core accretion model for 0.3 M {sub ☉} stars. With 6690 microlensing events, we find that for a simplified Korea Microlensing Telescopes Network (KMTNet), the fraction of planetary events is 2.9%, out of which 5.5% show multiple-planet signatures. The numbers of super-Earths, super-Neptunes, and super-Jupiters detected are expected to be almost equal. Our simulation shows that high-magnification events and massive planets are favored by planet detections, which is consistent with previous expectation. However, we notice that extremely high-magnification events are less sensitive to planets, which is possibly because the 10 minute sampling of KMTNet is not intensive enough to capture the subtle anomalies that occur near the peak. This suggests that while KMTNet observations can be systematically analyzed without reference to any follow-up data, follow-up observations will be essential in extracting the full science potential of very high magnification events. The uniformly high-cadence observations expected for KMTNet also result in ∼55% of all detected planets not being caustic crossing, and more low-mass planets even down to Mars mass being detected via planetary caustics. We also find that the distributions of orbital inclinations and planet mass ratios in multiple-planet events agree with the intrinsic distributions.

  5. A cross-cultural study of the lifespan distributions of life script events and autobiographical memories of life story events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

    Cultural Life Script Theory provides a cultural explanation of the reminiscence bump: adults older than 40 years remember more life events happening between 15 - 30 years of age. The cultural life script represents semantic knowledge about commonly shared expectations regarding the order and timing...... of major transitional life events in an idealized life course. By comparing the lifespan distribution of life scripts events and memories of life story events, we can determine the degree to which the cultural life script serves as a recall template for autobiographical memories, especially of positive...

  6. Constraining the magnitude of the largest event in a foreshock-main shock-aftershock sequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shcherbakov, Robert; Zhuang, Jiancang; Ogata, Yosihiko

    2018-01-01

    Extreme value statistics and Bayesian methods are used to constrain the magnitudes of the largest expected earthquakes in a sequence governed by the parametric time-dependent occurrence rate and frequency-magnitude statistics. The Bayesian predictive distribution for the magnitude of the largest event in a sequence is derived. Two types of sequences are considered, that is, the classical aftershock sequences generated by large main shocks and the aftershocks generated by large foreshocks preceding a main shock. For the former sequences, the early aftershocks during a training time interval are used to constrain the magnitude of the future extreme event during the forecasting time interval. For the latter sequences, the earthquakes preceding the main shock are used to constrain the magnitudes of the subsequent extreme events including the main shock. The analysis is applied retrospectively to past prominent earthquake sequences.

  7. Performance Assessment of a Post-Closure Pyrophoric Event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duguid, J.O.; Senger, R.K.; Leem, J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes analyses of a potential post-closure pyrophoric event in a waste package containing uranium metal spent fuel. The analyses include temperature at adjacent waste packages caused by the event and the dose to humans due to the event. The thermal analyses show that the event would not be expected to damage the adjacent waste packages. The dose analyses show that the doses due to the event are small. These analyses provide support to screening arguments used to demonstrate that the pyrophoric event should not be considered in the total system performance assessment model

  8. Significant event of patient radiation protection in radiotherapy (criterion 2.1): declaration and rating on the ASN-SFRO scale - ASN guide nr 16 - Release of the 01/01/2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This document brings together all the tools for the management of a significant event in radiation protection concerning a patient in radiotherapy. It contains the declaration form, a model for the reporting of significant events, and the ASN-SFRO scale which allows the event to be rated. After a presentation of the regulatory context and references, of the scope of application, this guide addresses the declaration of a significant event: general principles, definition of the 2.1 criterion, examples, delays and modalities of declaration, addressees of a declaration. It addresses the reporting of a significant event: general principles, sending delays and modalities. It addresses the rating on the ASN-SFRO scale: general principles, scale, and rating process. The last part deals with public information

  9. Direct SUSY dark matter detection-theoretical rates due to the spin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vergados, J D

    2004-01-01

    The recent WMAP data have confirmed that exotic dark matter together with the vacuum energy (cosmological constant) dominate in the flat Universe. Thus direct dark matter detection, consisting of detecting the recoiling nucleus, is central to particle physics and cosmology. Supersymmetry provides a natural dark matter candidate, the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP). The relevant cross sections arise out of two mechanisms: (i) the coherent mode, due to the scalar interaction and (ii) the spin contribution arising from the axial current. In this paper we will focus on the spin contribution, which is expected to dominate for light targets. For both modes it is possible to obtain detectable rates, but in most models the expected rates are much lower than the present experimental goals. So one should exploit two characteristic signatures of the reaction, namely the modulation effect and in directional experiments the correlation of the event rates with the sun's motion. In standard non-directional experiments the modulation is small, less than 2 per cent. In the case of the directional event rates we would like to suggest that the experiments exploit two features of the process, which are essentially independent of the SUSY model employed, namely: (1) the forward-backward asymmetry, with respect to the sun's direction of motion, is very large and (2) the modulation is much larger, especially if the observation is made in a plane perpendicular to the sun's velocity. In this case the difference between maximum and minimum can be larger than 40 per cent and the phase of the earth at the maximum is direction dependent

  10. Expectancy of Stress-Reducing Aromatherapy Effect and Performance on a Stress-Sensitive Cognitive Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamine, Irina; Oken, Barry S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. Stress-reducing therapies help maintain cognitive performance during stress. Aromatherapy is popular for stress reduction, but its effectiveness and mechanism are unclear. This study examined stress-reducing effects of aromatherapy on cognitive function using the go/no-go (GNG) task performance and event related potentials (ERP) components sensitive to stress. The study also assessed the importance of expectancy in aromatherapy actions. Methods. 81 adults were randomized to 3 aroma groups (active experimental, detectable, and undetectable placebo) and 2 prime subgroups (prime suggesting stress-reducing aroma effects or no-prime). GNG performance, ERPs, subjective expected aroma effects, and stress ratings were assessed at baseline and poststress. Results. No specific aroma effects on stress or cognition were observed. However, regardless of experienced aroma, people receiving a prime displayed faster poststress median reaction times than those receiving no prime. A significant interaction for N200 amplitude indicated divergent ERP patterns between baseline and poststress for go and no-go stimuli depending on the prime subgroup. Furthermore, trends for beneficial prime effects were shown on poststress no-go N200/P300 latencies and N200 amplitude. Conclusion. While there were no aroma-specific effects on stress or cognition, these results highlight the role of expectancy for poststress response inhibition and attention. PMID:25802539

  11. Expectancy of Stress-Reducing Aromatherapy Effect and Performance on a Stress-Sensitive Cognitive Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Chamine

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Stress-reducing therapies help maintain cognitive performance during stress. Aromatherapy is popular for stress reduction, but its effectiveness and mechanism are unclear. This study examined stress-reducing effects of aromatherapy on cognitive function using the go/no-go (GNG task performance and event related potentials (ERP components sensitive to stress. The study also assessed the importance of expectancy in aromatherapy actions. Methods. 81 adults were randomized to 3 aroma groups (active experimental, detectable, and undetectable placebo and 2 prime subgroups (prime suggesting stress-reducing aroma effects or no-prime. GNG performance, ERPs, subjective expected aroma effects, and stress ratings were assessed at baseline and poststress. Results. No specific aroma effects on stress or cognition were observed. However, regardless of experienced aroma, people receiving a prime displayed faster poststress median reaction times than those receiving no prime. A significant interaction for N200 amplitude indicated divergent ERP patterns between baseline and poststress for go and no-go stimuli depending on the prime subgroup. Furthermore, trends for beneficial prime effects were shown on poststress no-go N200/P300 latencies and N200 amplitude. Conclusion. While there were no aroma-specific effects on stress or cognition, these results highlight the role of expectancy for poststress response inhibition and attention.

  12. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  13. Observational Test of the Dayside Magnetopause Reconnection Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Kistler, L. M.; Mouikis, C.

    2014-12-01

    In asymmetric reconnection, the reconnection rate (R) is expected to follow the Cassak-Shay formula with an aspect ratio of around 0.1. At the magnetopause, reconnection is asymmetric, with the dense shocked solar wind population on the magnetosheath side, and a normally hot and tenuous population on the magnetospheric side. However, the hot magnetospheric population can contain a significant O+ component that increases the mass density, and the magnetospheric population may also include a cold dense population of plasmaspheric origin. We perform a statistical study of 13 magnetopause reconnection events observed by Cluster to determine how the reconnection rate depends on these different populations. The events are mainly at high latitudes, due to the Cluster orbit. Our results show that the measured R generally follows the Cassak-Shay prediction when all populations are included. However, the predicted rate only considering the magnetosheath contribution also correlates well with the measured R. For individual events, cold ions can make a comparable contribution to the magnetosheath H+ when there are plasmaspheric drainage plumes; the contribution of the magnetospheric hot O+ can be up to ~30%. However, the variation of solar wind conditions has a larger effect on the variation in the reconnection rate. The aspect ratio does not vary systematically with the O+ content, and 0.1 is a reasonable estimation. The outflow velocity is around the hybrid Alfven speed, but there is not a strong correlation. This may be due to motion of the x-line, or effects of the magnetosheath shear flow.

  14. Search for gamma-ray events in the BATSE data base

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewin, Walter

    1994-01-01

    We find large location errors and error radii in the locations of channel 1 Cygnus X-1 events. These errors and their associated uncertainties are a result of low signal-to-noise ratios (a few sigma) in the two brightest detectors for each event. The untriggered events suffer from similarly low signal-to-noise ratios, and their location errors are expected to be at least as large as those found for Cygnus X-1 with a given signal-to-noise ratio. The statistical error radii are consistent with those found for Cygnus X-1 and with the published estimates. We therefore expect approximately 20 - 30 deg location errors for the untriggered events. Hence, many of the untriggered events occurring within a few months of the triggered activity from SGR 1900 plus 14 are indeed consistent with the SGR source location, although Cygnus X-1 is also a good candidate.

  15. Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mpheshea, LE

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available A strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to develop during the austral summer. This study seeks to address the two main questions. 1) How strong will the 2016 event be? 2) With how much skill and confidence can a really strong event be predicted? A...

  16. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  17. DESGW: Optical Follow-up of BBH LIGO-Virgo Events with DECam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butler, Robert E. [Indiana U.; Soares-Santos, M. [Brandeis U.; Annis, j. [Fermilab; Herner, K. [Fermilab

    2017-12-14

    The DESGW program is a collaboration between members of the Dark Energy Survey, the wider astronomical community, and the LIGO-Virgo Collaboration to search for optical counterparts of gravitational wave events, such as those expected from binary neutron star mergers or neutron star-black hole mergers. While binary black hole (BBH) events are not expected to produce an electromagnetic (EM) signature, emission is certainly not impossible. The DESGW program has performed follow-up observations of four BBH events detected by LIGO in order to search for any possible EM counterpart. Failure to nd such counterparts is still relevant in that it produces limits on optical emission from such events. This is a review of follow-up results from O1 BBH events and a discussion of the status of ongoing uniform re-analysis of all BBH events that DESGW has followed up to date.

  18. Presentation of the results of a Bayesian automatic event detection and localization program to human analysts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kushida, N.; Kebede, F.; Feitio, P.; Le Bras, R.

    2016-12-01

    The Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) has been developing and testing NET-VISA (Arora et al., 2013), a Bayesian automatic event detection and localization program, and evaluating its performance in a realistic operational mode. In our preliminary testing at the CTBTO, NET-VISA shows better performance than its currently operating automatic localization program. However, given CTBTO's role and its international context, a new technology should be introduced cautiously when it replaces a key piece of the automatic processing. We integrated the results of NET-VISA into the Analyst Review Station, extensively used by the analysts so that they can check the accuracy and robustness of the Bayesian approach. We expect the workload of the analysts to be reduced because of the better performance of NET-VISA in finding missed events and getting a more complete set of stations than the current system which has been operating for nearly twenty years. The results of a series of tests indicate that the expectations born from the automatic tests, which show an overall overlap improvement of 11%, meaning that the missed events rate is cut by 42%, hold for the integrated interactive module as well. New events are found by analysts, which qualify for the CTBTO Reviewed Event Bulletin, beyond the ones analyzed through the standard procedures. Arora, N., Russell, S., and Sudderth, E., NET-VISA: Network Processing Vertically Integrated Seismic Analysis, 2013, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 103, 709-729.

  19. Variety Is Not the Spice of Life for People with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Frequency Ratings of Central, Variable and Inappropriate Aspects of Common Real-Life Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Eva; Happe, Francesca; Gomez, Juan Carlos

    2010-01-01

    This study used a novel rating task to investigate whether high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have difficulties distinguishing essential from variable aspects of familiar events. Participants read stories about everyday events and judged how often central, variable, and inappropriate event-components normally occur in…

  20. Variety is not the spice of life for people with autism spectrum disorders: frequency ratings of central, variable and inappropriate aspects of common real-life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Eva; Happé, Francesca; Gómez, Juan Carlos

    2010-06-01

    This study used a novel rating task to investigate whether high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have difficulties distinguishing essential from variable aspects of familiar events. Participants read stories about everyday events and judged how often central, variable, and inappropriate event-components normally occur in this type of situation. The ASD boys made significantly more errors than the typically developing boys in rating the occurrences of variable aspects. In both groups, ratings of variable aspects were age-related, but in the ASD boys, they were also related to theory of mind and weak coherence test scores, and to severity of autistic symptoms. Implications for the understanding of some repetitive behaviours, such as the tendency to adhere to inflexible routines, are discussed.

  1. Frameworks to monitor and predict rates and resource usage in the ATLAS High Level Trigger

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00219969; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS High Level Trigger Farm consists of around 40,000 CPU cores which filter events at an input rate of up to 100 kHz. A costing framework is built into the high level trigger thus enabling detailed monitoring of the system and allowing for data-driven predictions to be made utilising specialist datasets. An overview is presented in to how ATLAS collects in-situ monitoring data on CPU usage during the trigger execution, and how these data are processed to yield both low level monitoring of individual selection-algorithms and high level data on the overall performance of the farm. For development and prediction purposes, ATLAS uses a special ‘Enhanced Bias’ event selection. This mechanism is explained along with how it is used to profile expected resource usage and output event rate of new physics selections, before they are executed on the actual high level trigger farm.

  2. Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, Robert; And Others

    This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

  3. Educational inequalities in health expectancy during the financial crisis in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm

    2015-01-01

    in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 1.3 years for men and 1.2 years for women. CONCLUSIONS: The social inequality in DFLE for men and expected lifetime in self-rated good health for both genders increased slightly during the short period. The financial crisis did not seem to indicate...

  4. Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Rau, Roland; Jeune, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier...... favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between...... female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts...

  5. Uncertainty analysis of one Main Circulation Pump trip event at the Ignalina NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vileiniskis, V.; Kaliatka, A.; Uspuras, E.

    2004-01-01

    One Main Circulation Pump (MCP) trip event is an anticipated transient with expected frequency of approximately one event per year. There were a few events when one MCP was inadvertently tripped. The throughput of the rest running pumps in the affected Main Circulation Circuit loop increased, however, the total coolant flow through the affected loop decreased. The main question arises whether this coolant flow rate is sufficient for adequate core cooling. This paper presents an investigation of one MCP trip event at the Ignalina NPP. According to international practice, the transient analysis should consist of deterministic analysis by employing best-estimate codes and uncertainty analysis. For that purpose, the plant's RELAP5 model and the GRS (Germany) System for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis package (SUSA) were employed. Uncertainty analysis of flow energy loss in different parts of the Main Circulation Circuit, initial conditions and code-selected models was performed. Such analysis allows to estimate the influence of separate parameters on calculation results and to find the modelling parameters that have the largest impact on the event studied. On the basis of this analysis, recommendations for the further improvement of the model have been developed. (author)

  6. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  7. Trends in healthy life expectancy in Japan: 1986 - 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Yong

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the increasing life expectancy of Japanese men and women in relation to their health from 1986 to 2004. We computed healthy life expectancy for seven available time-points using the prevalence-based Sullivan method. The results showed that, for both sexes and at all ages, the gains in life expectancy prior to 1995 were mostly in years of good self-rated health, while the gains thereafter were in years of poor self-rated health. The exception was for women at age 85, among whom there was an almost continuous increase in the number of years in poor health. The proportion of life spent in different health states suggested evidence of morbidity compression until 1995, followed by an expansion of morbidity.

  8. Supernova rates from the SUDARE VST-Omegacam search II. Rates in a galaxy sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botticella, M. T.; Cappellaro, E.; Greggio, L.; Pignata, G.; Della Valle, M.; Grado, A.; Limatola, L.; Baruffolo, A.; Benetti, S.; Bufano, F.; Capaccioli, M.; Cascone, E.; Covone, G.; De Cicco, D.; Falocco, S.; Haeussler, B.; Harutyunyan, V.; Jarvis, M.; Marchetti, L.; Napolitano, N. R.; Paolillo, M.; Pastorello, A.; Radovich, M.; Schipani, P.; Tomasella, L.; Turatto, M.; Vaccari, M.

    2017-02-01

    mass, confirming that the CC SN progenitors explode soon after the end of the star formation activity. The trends of the Type Ia and CC SN rates as a function of the sSFR and the galaxy mass that we observed from SUDARE data are in agreement with literature results at different redshifts suggesting that the ability of the stellar populations to produce SN events does not vary with cosmic time. The expected number of SNe Ia is in agreement with that observed for all four DTD models considered both in passive and star-forming galaxies so we can not discriminate between different progenitor scenarios. The expected number of CC SNe is higher than that observed, suggesting a higher limit for the minimum progenitor mass. However, at least part of this discrepancy between expected and observed number of CC SNe may reflect a fluctuation due to the relatively poor statistics. We also compare the expected and observed trends of the SN Ia rate with the intrinsic U-J colour of the parent galaxy, assumed to be a tracer of the age distribution. While the slope of the relation between the SN Ia rate and the U-J colour in star-forming galaxies can be well-reproduced by all four DTD models considered, only the steepest of them is able to account for the rates and colour in star-forming and passive galaxies with the same value of the SN Ia production efficiency. The agreement between model predictions and data could be found for the other DTD models, but with a productivity of SN Ia higher in passive galaxies compared to star-forming galaxies. Based on observations made with ESO telescopes at the Paranal Observatory under programme ID 088.D-4006, 088.D-4007, 089.D-0244, 089.D-0248, 090.D-0078, 090.D-0079, 088.D-4013, 089.D-0250, 090.D-0081.

  9. Atmospheric washout of radioactive aerosol for different types of precipitation events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernauer, Felix

    2015-01-01

    classes of crystal types and three classes of riming was developed. A number of meteorologically stable precipitation events was identified, including 34680 minutes of precipitation with 74% in solid, 19% in mixed and 7% in liquid phase. In agreement with literature the calculated scavenging coefficients were found in a range from (5.0±0.7). 10 -5 s -1 to (1.0±0.2). 10 -3 s -1 . As expected, the scavenging coefficients showed a clear Green eld gap between 30nm and 60 nm. The Green field gap was more pronounced for liquid phase events than for mixed and solid phase events. In the particle size range between 30 nm and 60 nm solid phase events showed the largest scavenging coefficients. Due to the very efficient interception and impaction mechanisms, mixed phase events showed the largest scavenging coefficients for aerosol particles larger than 60 nm. For solid phase precipitation events, and aerosol particles larger than 30 nm, the dependence of the scavenging coefficient on maximum dimension and vertical velocity was not as pronounced as the dependence on hydrometeor crystal type and surface structure. As expected, all types of precipitation showed increasing mean scavenging coefficients averaged over the whole aerosol particle size range, for increasing precipitation rates. The clearest dependence of the scavenging coefficient on precipitation rate was observed for liquid phase precipitation, while for solid phase precipitation additionally to the precipitation rate also hydrometeor crystal type and surface structure played an important role. Parameterizing the scavenging coefficient λ as a function of precipitation rate I using the equation λ = A . (I/I 0 ) B , is commonly done in decision support systems and atmospheric transport models. The values for A and B are fixed and do not depend on the type of precipitation. The most important result of this study is that precipitation events consisting of different types of hydrometeors can be parametrized by different

  10. Atmospheric washout of radioactive aerosol for different types of precipitation events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernauer, Felix

    2015-12-15

    classes of crystal types and three classes of riming was developed. A number of meteorologically stable precipitation events was identified, including 34680 minutes of precipitation with 74% in solid, 19% in mixed and 7% in liquid phase. In agreement with literature the calculated scavenging coefficients were found in a range from (5.0±0.7). 10{sup -5}s{sup -1} to (1.0±0.2). 10{sup -3}s{sup -1}. As expected, the scavenging coefficients showed a clear Green eld gap between 30nm and 60 nm. The Green field gap was more pronounced for liquid phase events than for mixed and solid phase events. In the particle size range between 30 nm and 60 nm solid phase events showed the largest scavenging coefficients. Due to the very efficient interception and impaction mechanisms, mixed phase events showed the largest scavenging coefficients for aerosol particles larger than 60 nm. For solid phase precipitation events, and aerosol particles larger than 30 nm, the dependence of the scavenging coefficient on maximum dimension and vertical velocity was not as pronounced as the dependence on hydrometeor crystal type and surface structure. As expected, all types of precipitation showed increasing mean scavenging coefficients averaged over the whole aerosol particle size range, for increasing precipitation rates. The clearest dependence of the scavenging coefficient on precipitation rate was observed for liquid phase precipitation, while for solid phase precipitation additionally to the precipitation rate also hydrometeor crystal type and surface structure played an important role. Parameterizing the scavenging coefficient λ as a function of precipitation rate I using the equation λ = A . (I/I{sub 0}){sup B}, is commonly done in decision support systems and atmospheric transport models. The values for A and B are fixed and do not depend on the type of precipitation. The most important result of this study is that precipitation events consisting of different types of hydrometeors can be

  11. On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

    2015-01-01

    Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

  12. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaekyoung Bae

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

  13. Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

  14. Optimal Joint Expected Delay Forwarding in Delay Tolerant Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Xu; Xin Feng; Wen Jun Yang; Ru Chuan Wang; Bing Qing Han

    2013-01-01

    Multicopy forwarding schemes have been employed in delay tolerant network (DTN) to improve the delivery delay and delivery rate. Much effort has been focused on reducing the routing cost while retaining high performance. This paper aims to provide an optimal joint expected delay forwarding (OJEDF) protocol which minimizes the expected delay while satisfying a certain constant on the number of forwardings per message. We propose a comprehensive forwarding metric called joint expected delay (JE...

  15. Rates and limits of climatic change: Discussion of possible targets; Rates and limits of temperature, precipitation, and sea-level changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gleick, P H [Pacific Inst. for SiDES, Berkeley, CA (US); Sassin, W [Landl (AT)

    1990-10-01

    The rate of sea-level rise over the next century is likely to accelerate rapidly and exceed rates of rise experienced over the last several thousand years. Under these conditions, adverse effects on natural ecosystems such as coastal marshes and coral reef islands would be widely observable by 2050, and would be noticeable in vulnerable ecosystems by the year 2000, even under low sea-level rise scenario. Non-linearities and sudden events such as storm surges and a change in storm frequency and intensity could lead to damages even earlier. Similarly, change in temperature and precipitation patterns far greater than those experienced in the last 10000to 100000 years seem likely unless strong actions are taken soon. Rates of change in temperature, precipitation, and sea level over geologic time have often exceeded the rates expected over the next century from global warming. These large excursions, however, were often accompanied by dramatic changes in ecosystems and by large species extinctions, and they occurred when no human infrastructure existed. The adaptive abilities of natural ecosystems can be used to define targets of maximum rates of rise. For coral reef islands and coastal marshes, the maximum rate of accretion of materials is 10 to 15 mm/yr. At this rate, however, many reefs and marshes that accrete materials at slower rates will be inundated and destroyed. Average rates of accretion for marshes are lower - between 2 and 5 mm/yr, and between 5 and 10 mm/yr for coral reefs. Even at these lower rates, some ecosystem losses are to be expected. This information leads to a recommended target for the rate of sea-level rise of between 20 and 50 mm per decade, and a target for absolute sea-level rise of between 0.2 and 0.5 above the 1990 global mean sea level. (authors).

  16. Educational inequalities in health expectancy during the financial crisis in Denmark.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel; Eriksen, Mette Lindholm; Andersen-Ranberg, Karen; Jeune, Bernard

    2015-12-01

    To investigate educational differentials in health expectancy among 50-year-old Danes before and during the financial crisis. Nationwide register data on mortality were combined with data from SHARE surveys in 2006/2007 and 2010/2011 to estimate disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and expected lifetime in self-rated good health by educational level. The difference in life expectancy between 50-year-old men and women with high and low educational levels increased by 0.3 and 0.8 years, respectively. The overall educational differentials in DFLE did not change much for women, whereas for men the tendency was that DFLE increased for those with high educational level and decreased for those with less education ascending the difference by almost 2 years (from 5.9 to 7.8 years), although the difference was not statistically significant. The educational disparity in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 1.3 years for men and 1.2 years for women. The social inequality in DFLE for men and expected lifetime in self-rated good health for both genders increased slightly during the short period. The financial crisis did not seem to indicate a change in the persistent trend of the widening social gap.

  17. Expectation requires treatment to boost pain relief: an fMRI study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schenk, Lieven A; Sprenger, Christian; Geuter, Stephan; Büchel, Christian

    2014-01-01

    We investigated the effect of a possible interaction between topical analgesic treatment and treatment expectation on pain at the behavioral and neuronal level by combining topical lidocaine/prilocaine treatment with an expectancy manipulation in a 2 by 2 within-subject design (open treatment, hidden treatment, placebo, control). Thirty-two healthy subjects received heat pain stimuli on capsaicin-pretreated skin and rated their experienced pain during functional magnetic resonance imaging. This allowed us to separate drug- and expectancy-related effects at the behavioral and neuronal levels and to test whether they interact during the processing of painful stimuli. Pain ratings were reduced during active treatment and were associated with reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex. Pain ratings were lower in open treatment compared with hidden treatment and were related to reduced activity in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, the secondary somatosensory cortex, and the thalamus. Testing for an interaction revealed that the expectation effect was significantly larger in the active treatment conditions compared with the no-treatment conditions and was associated with signal changes in the anterior insular cortex, the anterior cingulate cortex, and the ventral striatum. In conclusion, this study shows that even in the case of a topical analgesic, expectation interacts with treatment at the level of pain ratings and neuronal responses in placebo-related brain regions. Our results are highly relevant in the clinical context as they show (i) that expectation can boost treatment and (ii) that expectation and treatment are not necessarily additive as assumed in placebo-controlled clinical trials. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Maximum Redshift of Gravitational Wave Merger Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koushiappas, Savvas M.; Loeb, Abraham

    2017-12-01

    Future generations of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z ≥40 , then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.

  19. Pulse Rate and Transit Time Analysis to Predict Hypotension Events After Spinal Anesthesia During Programmed Cesarean Labor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolea, Juan; Lázaro, Jesús; Gil, Eduardo; Rovira, Eva; Remartínez, José M; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Navarro, Augusto; Bailón, Raquel

    2017-09-01

    Prophylactic treatment has been proved to reduce hypotension incidence after spinal anesthesia during cesarean labor. However, the use of pharmacological prophylaxis could carry out undesirable side-effects on mother and fetus. Thus, the prediction of hypotension becomes an important challenge. Hypotension events are hypothesized to be related to a malfunctioning of autonomic nervous system (ANS) regulation of blood pressure. In this work, ANS responses to positional changes of 51 pregnant women programmed for a cesarean labor were explored for hypotension prediction. Lateral and supine decubitus, and sitting position were considered while electrocardiographic and pulse photoplethysmographic signals were recorded. Features based on heart rate variability, pulse rate variability (PRV) and pulse transit time (PTT) analysis were used in a logistic regression classifier. The results showed that PRV irregularity changes, assessed by approximate entropy, from supine to lateral decubitus, and standard deviation of PTT in supine decubitus were found as the combination of features that achieved the best classification results sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 70% and accuracy of 72%, being normotensive the positive class. Peripheral regulation and blood pressure changes, measured by PRV and PTT analysis, could help to predict hypotension events reducing prophylactic side-effects in the low-risk population.

  20. LOSP-initiated event tree analysis for BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Watanabe, Norio; Kondo, Masaaki; Uno, Kiyotaka; Chigusa, Takeshi; Harami, Taikan

    1989-03-01

    As a preliminary study of 'Japanese Model Plant PSA', a LOSP (loss of off-site power)-initiated Event Tree Analysis for a Japanese typical BWR was carried out solely based on the open documents such as 'Safety Analysis Report'. The objectives of this analysis are as follows; - to delineate core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP, - to evaluate the importance of core-melt accident sequences in terms of occurrence frequency, and - to develop a foundation of plant information and analytical procedures for efficiently performing further 'Japanese Model Plant PSA'. This report describes the procedure and results of the LOSP-initiated Event Tree Analysis. In this analysis, two types of event trees, Functional Event Tree and Systemic Event Tree, were developed to delineate core-melt accident sequences and to quantify their frequencies. Front-line System Event Tree was prepared as well to provide core-melt sequence delineation for accident progression analysis of Level 2 PSA which will be followed in a future. Applying U.S. operational experience data such as component failure rates and a LOSP frequency, we obtained the following results; - The total frequency of core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP is estimated at 5 x 10 -4 per reactor-year. - The dominant sequences are 'Loss of Decay Heat Removal' and 'Loss of Emergency Electric Power Supply', which account for more than 90% of the total core-melt frequency. In this analysis, a higher value of 0.13/R·Y was used for the LOSP frequency than experiences in Japan and any recovery action was not considered. In fact, however, there has been no experience of LOSP event in Japanese nuclear power plants so far and it is also expected that offsite power and/or PCS would be recovered before core melt. Considering Japanese operating experience and recovery factors will reduce the total core-melt frequency to less than 10 -6 per reactor-year. (J.P.N.)

  1. The effect of injury diagnosis on illness perceptions and expected postconcussion syndrome and posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullivan, Karen A; Edmed, Shannon L; Kempe, Chloe

    2014-01-01

    To determine if systematic variation of diagnostic terminology (ie, concussion, minor head injury [MHI], mild traumatic brain injury [mTBI]) following a standardized injury description produced different expected symptoms and illness perceptions. We hypothesized that worse outcomes would be expected of mTBI, compared with other diagnoses, and that MHI would be perceived as worse than concussion. 108 volunteers were randomly allocated to conditions in which they read a vignette describing a motor vehicle accident-related mTBI followed by a diagnosis of mTBI (n = 27), MHI (n = 24), concussion (n = 31), or, no diagnosis (n = 26). All groups rated (a) event "undesirability," (b) illness perception, and (c) expected postconcussion syndrome (PCS) and posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms 6 months after injury. There was a statistically significant group effect on undesirability (mTBI > concussion and MHI), PTSD symptomatology (mTBI and no diagnosis > concussion), and negative illness perception (mTBI and no diagnosis > concussion). In general, diagnostic terminology did not affect anticipated PCS symptoms 6 months after injury, but other outcomes were affected. Given that these diagnostic terms are used interchangeably, this study suggests that changing terminology can influence known contributors to poor mTBI outcome.

  2. Assessing hail risk for a building portfolio by generating stochastic events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicolet, Pierrick; Choffet, Marc; Demierre, Jonathan; Imhof, Markus; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Nguyen, Liliane; Voumard, Jérémie

    2015-04-01

    Among the natural hazards affecting buildings, hail is one of the most costly and is nowadays a major concern for building insurance companies. In Switzerland, several costly events were reported these last years, among which the July 2011 event, which cost around 125 million EUR to the Aargauer public insurance company (North-western Switzerland). This study presents the new developments in a stochastic model which aims at evaluating the risk for a building portfolio. Thanks to insurance and meteorological radar data of the 2011 Aargauer event, vulnerability curves are proposed by comparing the damage rate to the radar intensity (i.e. the maximum hailstone size reached during the event, deduced from the radar signal). From these data, vulnerability is defined by a two-step process. The first step defines the probability for a building to be affected (i.e. to claim damages), while the second, if the building is affected, attributes a damage rate to the building from a probability distribution specific to the intensity class. To assess the risk, stochastic events are then generated by summing a set of Gaussian functions with 6 random parameters (X and Y location, maximum hailstone size, standard deviation, eccentricity and orientation). The location of these functions is constrained by a general event shape and by the position of the previously defined functions of the same event. For each generated event, the total cost is calculated in order to obtain a distribution of event costs. The general events parameters (shape, size, …) as well as the distribution of the Gaussian parameters are inferred from two radar intensity maps, namely the one of the aforementioned event, and a second from an event which occurred in 2009. After a large number of simulations, the hailstone size distribution obtained in different regions is compared to the distribution inferred from pre-existing hazard maps, built from a larger set of radar data. The simulation parameters are then

  3. A novel approach for analyzing data on recurrent events with duration to estimate the combined cumulative rate of both variables over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudipta Bhattacharya

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent adverse events, once occur often continue for some duration of time in clinical trials; and the number of events along with their durations is clinically considered as a measure of severity of a disease under study. While there are methods available for analyzing recurrent events or durations or for analyzing both side by side, no effort has been made so far to combine them and present as a single measure. However, this single-valued combined measure may help clinicians assess the wholesome effect of recurrence of incident comprising events and durations. Non-parametric approach is adapted here to develop an estimator for estimating the combined rate of both, the recurrence of events as well as the event-continuation, that is the duration per event. The proposed estimator produces a single numerical value, the interpretation and meaningfulness of which are discussed through the analysis of a real-life clinical dataset. The algebraic expression of variance is derived, asymptotic normality of the estimator is noted, and demonstration is provided on how the estimator can be used in the setup of testing of statistical hypothesis. Further possible development of the estimator is also noted, to adjust for the dependence of event occurrences on the history of the process generating recurrent events through covariates and for the case of dependent censoring. Keywords: Recurrent events, Duration per event, Intensity, Nelson-aalen estimator

  4. OMS event evaluator and scheduler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckelkamp, Richard E.

    1990-01-01

    An Operations Management System (OMS) is being designed for Space Station Freedom to improve productivity, reliability, and safety while reducing operations and maintenance costs. Central to the concept is a short term plan containing mixes of man-readable and machine-executable procedures used in an environment of distributed processing and execution. An OMS event evaluator to check upcoming short-term plan events for validity of execution is under development. The first version checks time and resource constraints against operational conditions for current or expected stations. In work are the handling of environmental and other operational constraints, as well as detailed modeling of resources and station operational states. The Ada Program also has the ability to reschedule all or part of the events.

  5. Expectations and final evaluation of complete dentures by patients, dentist and dental technician.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marachlioglou, C R M Z; Dos Santos, J F F; Cunha, V P P; Marchini, Leonardo

    2010-07-01

    There is a poor association between the dentist's evaluation of denture quality and patients' satisfaction with their dentures. Possible differences between dental professionals and patients' expectations might help explain differences in outcome evaluations. This study compared scores given by a dentist, a dental technician and patients for their expectations before and their final evaluation after complete dentures treatment. Twenty completely edentulous patients, a prosthodontist and a dental technician provided scores for the expected aesthetic and functional results of their dentures based on a visual analogue scale at baseline. Post-treatment completion ratings were given after adjustments, by dentist and patients. The dental technician provided post-treatment completion ratings after completing the dentures. The patients had higher expectations than the dental technician and the dentist perceived for both aesthetic and function (P < 0.001). The patients also presented higher post-treatment completion ratings than the dental professionals perceived for final aesthetics (P = 0.016, Kendall's W = 0.207) and function (P = 0.002, Kendall's W = 0.303). Only the dentist presented a statistically significant difference between expectations (lower) and final (higher) outcomes for aesthetics (P = 0.017) and function (P = 0.003). There was no correlation between expectations and post-treatment completion ratings according to the patients' age. There was also no correlation between the patients' gender and expectation scores. Patients presented higher expectations regarding their dentures than dental professionals. The dentist believed that dentures would bring fewer benefits than patients did, but his perception of denture benefits post-treatment was significantly higher than his expectations.

  6. Developing future precipitation events from historic events: An Amsterdam case study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manola, Iris; van den Hurk, Bart; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-04-01

    Due to climate change, the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is expected to increase. It is therefore of high importance to develop climate change scenarios tailored towards the local and regional needs of policy makers in order to develop efficient adaptation strategies to reduce the risks from extreme weather events. Current approaches to tailor climate scenarios are often not well adopted in hazard management, since average changes in climate are not a main concern to policy makers, and tailoring climate scenarios to simulate future extremes can be complex. Therefore, a new concept has been introduced recently that uses known historic extreme events as a basis, and modifies the observed data for these events so that the outcome shows how the same event would occur in a warmer climate. This concept is introduced as 'Future Weather', and appeals to the experience of stakeholders and users. This research presents a novel method of projecting a future extreme precipitation event, based on a historic event. The selected precipitation event took place over the broader area of Amsterdam, the Netherlands in the summer of 2014, which resulted in blocked highways, disruption of air transportation, flooded buildings and public facilities. An analysis of rain monitoring stations showed that an event of such intensity has a 5 to 15 years return period. The method of projecting a future event follows a non-linear delta transformation that is applied directly on the observed event assuming a warmer climate to produce an "up-scaled" future precipitation event. The delta transformation is based on the observed behaviour of the precipitation intensity as a function of the dew point temperature during summers. The outcome is then compared to a benchmark method using the HARMONIE numerical weather prediction model, where the boundary conditions of the event from the Ensemble Prediction System of ECMWF (ENS) are perturbed to indicate a warmer climate. The two

  7. 5 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - List of Events for Which Inclusion of NAFI Service May Affect the Rate of Annuity Payable

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false List of Events for Which Inclusion of... of Part 847—List of Events for Which Inclusion of NAFI Service May Affect the Rate of Annuity Payable... of annuity. CSRS disability retirement Commencing date of annuity. 1 FERS disability retirement First...

  8. Interaction between Digestive Strategy and Niche Specialization Predicts Speciation Rates across Herbivorous Mammals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tran, Lucy A P

    2016-04-01

    Biotic and abiotic factors often are treated as mutually exclusive drivers of diversification processes. In this framework, ecological specialists are expected to have higher speciation rates than generalists if abiotic factors are the primary controls on species diversity but lower rates if biotic interactions are more important. Speciation rate is therefore predicted to positively correlate with ecological specialization in the purely abiotic model but negatively correlate in the biotic model. In this study, I show that the positive relationship between ecological specialization and speciation expected from the purely abiotic model is recovered only when a species-specific trait, digestive strategy, is modeled in the terrestrial, herbivorous mammals (Mammalia). This result suggests a more nuanced model in which the response of specialized lineages to abiotic factors is dependent on a biological trait. I also demonstrate that the effect of digestive strategy on the ecological specialization-speciation rate relationship is not due to a difference in either the degree of ecological specialization or the speciation rate between foregut- and hindgut-fermenting mammals. Together, these findings suggest that a biological trait, alongside historical abiotic events, played an important role in shaping mammal speciation at long temporal and large geographic scales.

  9. Production rate of $b\\overline{b}$ quark pairs from gluons and $b\\overline{b}b\\overline{b}$ events in hadronic Z decays

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Ainsley, C.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Anderson, K.J.; Arcelli, S.; Asai, S.; Ashby, S.F.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Ball, A.H.; Barberio, E.; Barlow, Roger J.; Baumann, S.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Bentvelsen, S.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Bloodworth, I.J.; Bock, P.; Bohme, J.; Boeriu, O.; Bonacorsi, D.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Bright-Thomas, P.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Burckhart, H.J.; Cammin, J.; Capiluppi, P.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, David G.; Ciocca, C.; Clarke, P.E.L.; Clay, E.; Cohen, I.; Cooke, O.C.; Couchman, J.; Couyoumtzelis, C.; Coxe, R.L.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; Dallavalle, G.Marco; Dallison, S.; de Roeck, A.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Dixit, M.S.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Estabrooks, P.G.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Fanti, M.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Furtjes, A.; Futyan, D.I.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, J.W.; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Glenzinski, D.; Goldberg, J.; Grandi, C.; Graham, K.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Hajdu, C.; Hanson, G.G.; Hansroul, M.; Hapke, M.; Harder, K.; Harel, A.; Hargrove, C.K.; Harin-Dirac, M.; Hauke, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Hensel, C.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hildreth, M.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hocker, James Andrew; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Homer, R.J.; Honma, A.K.; Horvath, D.; Hossain, K.R.; Howard, R.; Huntemeyer, P.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jacob, F.R.; Jawahery, A.; Jeremie, H.; Jones, C.R.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karapetian, G.; Karlen, D.; Kartvelishvili, V.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kim, D.H.; Klein, K.; Klier, A.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Kokott, T.P.; Komamiya, S.; Kowalewski, Robert V.; Kress, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Kyberd, P.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Lawson, I.; Layter, J.G.; Leins, A.; Lellouch, D.; Letts, J.; Levinson, L.; Liebisch, R.; Lillich, J.; List, B.; Littlewood, C.; Lloyd, A.W.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Long, G.D.; Losty, M.J.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, J.; Macchiolo, A.; Macpherson, A.; Mader, W.; Mannelli, M.; Marcellini, S.; Marchant, T.E.; Martin, A.J.; Martin, J.P.; Martinez, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McDonald, W.John; McKenna, J.; McMahon, T.J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Mendez-Lorenzo, P.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Mohr, W.; Montanari, A.; Mori, T.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oakham, F.G.; Odorici, F.; Ogren, H.O.; Oh, A.; Okpara, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Patrick, G.N.; Patt, J.; Pfeifenschneider, P.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Polok, J.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rembser, C.; Rick, H.; Robins, S.A.; Rodning, N.; Roney, J.M.; Rosati, S.; Roscoe, K.; Rossi, A.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Runolfsson, O.; Rust, D.R.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sahr, O.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Sbarra, C.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schmitt, S.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Schwick, C.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C.H.; Sherwood, P.; Siroli, G.P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Snow, G.A.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spagnolo, S.; Sproston, M.; Stahl, A.; Stephens, K.; Stoll, K.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Surrow, B.; Talbot, S.D.; Tarem, S.; Taylor, R.J.; Teuscher, R.; Thiergen, M.; Thomas, J.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Towers, S.; Trefzger, T.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Vannerem, P.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Waller, D.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wetterling, D.; White, J.S.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zacek, V.; Zer-Zion, D.

    2001-01-01

    The rates are measured per hadronic Z decay for gluon splitting to bb(bar) quark pairs, g_bb, and of events containing two bb(bar) quark pairs, g_4b, using a sample of four-jet events selected from data collected with the OPAL detector. Events with an enhanced signal of gluon splitting to bb(bar) quarks are selected if two of the jets are close in phase-space and contain detached secondary vertices. For the event sample containing two bb(bar) quark pairs, three of the four jets are required to have a significantly detached secondary vertex. Information from the event topology is combined in a likelihood fit to extract the values of g_bb and g_4b, namely g_bb = (3.07 +- 0.53(stat) +- 0.97(syst))x10^-3 g_4b = (0.36 +- 0.17(stat) +- 0.27(syst))x10^-3

  10. Scaling rates of true polar wander in convecting planets and moons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Ian; Buffett, Bruce

    2017-12-01

    Mass redistribution in the convecting mantle of a planet causes perturbations in its moment of inertia tensor. Conservation of angular momentum dictates that these perturbations change the direction of the rotation vector of the planet, a process known as true polar wander (TPW). Although the existence of TPW on Earth is firmly established, its rate and magnitude over geologic time scales remain controversial. Here we present scaling analyses and numerical simulations of TPW due to mantle convection over a range of parameter space relevant to planetary interiors. For simple rotating convection, we identify a set of dimensionless parameters that fully characterize true polar wander. We use these parameters to define timescales for the growth of moment of inertia perturbations due to convection and for their relaxation due to true polar wander. These timescales, as well as the relative sizes of convective anomalies, control the rate and magnitude of TPW. This analysis also clarifies the nature of so called "inertial interchange" TPW events, and relates them to a broader class of events that enable large and often rapid TPW. We expect these events to have been more frequent in Earth's past.

  11. Do Student Evaluations of Teaching Depend on the Distribution of Expected Grade?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos-Diaz, Horacio; Ragan, James F., Jr.

    2010-01-01

    Prior research suggests that student evaluations of teaching may depend on the average grade expected in a class. We hypothesize that, because of risk aversion, student ratings also depend on the distribution of expected grades. As predicted, student ratings at the University of Puerto Rico at Bayamon are significantly and negatively related to…

  12. Treatment Expectations for CAM Interventions in Pediatric Chronic Pain Patients and their Parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennie C. I. Tsao

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Patient expectations regarding complementary and alternative medicine (CAM interventions have important implications for treatment adherence, attrition and clinical outcome. Little is known, however, about parent and child treatment expectations regarding CAM approaches for pediatric chronic pain problems. The present study examined ratings of the expected benefits of CAM (i.e. hypnosis, massage, acupuncture, yoga and relaxation and conventional medicine (i.e. medications, surgery interventions in 45 children (32 girls; mean age = 13.8 years ± 2.5 and parents (39 mothers presenting for treatment at a specialty clinic for chronic pediatric pain. Among children, medications and relaxation were expected to be significantly more helpful than the remaining approaches (P < 0.01. However, children expected the three lowest rated interventions, acupuncture, surgery and hypnosis, to be of equal benefit. Results among parents were similar to those found in children but there were fewer significant differences between ratings of the various interventions. Only surgery was expected by parents to be significantly less helpful than the other approaches (P < 0.01. When parent and child perceptions were compared, parents expected hypnosis, acupuncture and yoga, to be more beneficial than did children, whereas children expected surgery to be more helpful than did parents (P < 0.01. Overall, children expected the benefits of CAM to be fairly low with parents' expectations only somewhat more positive. The current findings suggest that educational efforts directed at enhancing treatment expectations regarding CAM, particularly among children with chronic pain, are warranted.

  13. Designing Alternative Transport Methods for the Distributed Data Collection of ATLAS EventIndex Project

    CERN Document Server

    Fernandez Casani, Alvaro; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    One of the key and challenging tasks of the ATLAS EventIndex project is to index and catalog all the produced events not only at CERN but also at hundreds of worldwide grid sites, and convey the data in real time to a central Hadoop instance at CERN. While this distributed data collection is currently operating correctly in production, there are some issues that might impose performance bottlenecks in the future, with an expected rise in the event production and reprocessing rates. In this work, we first describe the current approach based on a messaging system, which conveys the data from the sources to the central catalog, and we identify some weaknesses of this system. Then, we study a promising alternative transport method based on an object store, presenting a performance comparison with the current approach, and the architectural design changes needed to adapt the system to the next run of the ATLAS experiment at CERN.

  14. Korea Microlensing Telescope Network Microlensing Events from 2015: Event-finding Algorithm, Vetting, and Photometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, D.-J.; Kim, H.-W.; Hwang, K.-H.; Albrow, M. D.; Chung, S.-J.; Gould, A.; Han, C.; Jung, Y. K.; Ryu, Y.-H.; Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Zhu, W.; Cha, S.-M.; Kim, S.-L.; Lee, C.-U.; Lee, D.-J.; Lee, Y.; Park, B.-G.; Pogge, R. W.; The KMTNet Collaboration

    2018-02-01

    We present microlensing events in the 2015 Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) data and our procedure for identifying these events. In particular, candidates were detected with a novel “completed-event” microlensing event-finder algorithm. The algorithm works by making linear fits to a ({t}0,{t}{eff},{u}0) grid of point-lens microlensing models. This approach is rendered computationally efficient by restricting u 0 to just two values (0 and 1), which we show is quite adequate. The implementation presented here is specifically tailored to the commission-year character of the 2015 data, but the algorithm is quite general and has already been applied to a completely different (non-KMTNet) data set. We outline expected improvements for 2016 and future KMTNet data. The light curves of the 660 “clear microlensing” and 182 “possible microlensing” events that were found in 2015 are presented along with our policy for their public release.

  15. A randomised controlled trial of expectant management versus surgical evacuation of early pregnancy loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarajah, Ravichandran; Quek, Yek Song; Kuppannan, Kaliammah; Woon, Shu Yuan; Jeganathan, Ravichandran

    2014-07-01

    To show whether a clinically significant difference in success rates exists between expectant and surgical management of early pregnancy loss. Randomised controlled trial comparing expectant versus surgical management of early pregnancy loss over a 1-year period from 1st January to 31st December 2009 at Sultanah Aminah Hospital, Johor Bahru. Pregnant women with missed or incomplete miscarriages at gestations up to 14 weeks were recruited in this study. The success rate in the surgical group was measured as curettage performed without any complications during or after the procedure, while the success rate in the expectant group was defined as complete spontaneous expulsion of products of conception within 6 weeks without any complication. A total of 360 women were recruited and randomised to expectant or surgical management, with 180 women in each group. There was no statistically significant difference in the success rate between the groups and between the different types of miscarriage. With expectant management, 131 (74%) patients had a complete spontaneous expulsion of products of conception, of whom 106 (83%) women miscarried within 7 days. However, the rates of unplanned admissions (18.1%) and unplanned surgical evacuations (17.5%) in the expectant group were significantly higher than the rates (7.4% and 8% respectively) in the surgical group. The complications in both groups were similar. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria (1980 - 2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sede, Peter I; Ohemeng, Williams

    2015-01-01

    Attainment of 70 years life expectancy by 2020 is one of the millennium development goals in Nigeria. This study examined the socio-economic determinants of life expectancy in Nigeria using data from 1980-2011. Judging from the endogeneity feature of the variables, A VAR and VECM frameworks were employed. Socio-economic features were proxy by secondary school enrolment, government expenditure on health, per capita income, unemployment rate and the Naira foreign exchange rate. It was found that, the conventional socio-economic variables such as per capita income, education and government expenditure on health considered to be highly effective in determining life expectancy of developing countries are not significant in the case of Nigeria. The study however suggests that, life expectancy in Nigeria could be improved if attention is given to quality of government health expenditure, unemployment and measures to halt the depreciation of the Nigerian Naira against major foreign currency.

  17. Greater expectations: using hierarchical linear modeling to examine expectancy for treatment outcome as a predictor of treatment response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Matthew; Anderson, Page; Henrich, Christopher C; Rothbaum, Barbara Olasov

    2008-12-01

    A client's expectation that therapy will be beneficial has long been considered an important factor contributing to therapeutic outcomes, but recent empirical work examining this hypothesis has primarily yielded null findings. The present study examined the contribution of expectancies for treatment outcome to actual treatment outcome from the start of therapy through 12-month follow-up in a clinical sample of individuals (n=72) treated for fear of flying with either in vivo exposure or virtual reality exposure therapy. Using a piecewise hierarchical linear model, outcome expectancy predicted treatment gains made during therapy but not during follow-up. Compared to lower levels, higher expectations for treatment outcome yielded stronger rates of symptom reduction from the beginning to the end of treatment on 2 standardized self-report questionnaires on fear of flying. The analytic approach of the current study is one potential reason that findings contrast with prior literature. The advantages of using hierarchical linear modeling to assess interindividual differences in longitudinal data are discussed.

  18. Development and validation of a Thai stressful life events rating scale for patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic methamphetamine abuse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ek-uma Imkome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to psychometrically test a Thai Stressful Life Events Rating Scale (TSLERS. Factor analysis was done on data collected from 313 patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse in Thailand from April to May, 2015. Results identified the following problems impacting physical and mental health: social relationship and social concerns, money, family life, life security, and career. Evaluation of the psychometric scale properties demonstrated acceptable validity and reliability. TSLERS provided scientific and empirical data about stressful life events of patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse, and was suitable for stress detection and suggesting further innovations.

  19. On the merging rates of envelope-deprived components of binary systems which can give rise to supernova events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tornambe, Amedeo

    1989-08-01

    Theoretical rates of mergings of envelope-deprived components of binary systems, which can give rise to supernova events are described. The effects of the various assumptions on the physical properties of the progenitor system and of its evolutionary behavior through common envelope phases are discussed. Four cases have been analyzed: CO-CO, He-CO, He-He double degenerate mergings and He star-CO dwarf merging. It is found that, above a critical efficiency of the common envelope action in system shrinkage, the rate of CO-CO mergings is not strongly sensitive to the efficiency. Below this critical value, no CO-CO systems will survive for times larger than a few Gyr. In contrast, He-CO dwarf systems will continue to merge at a reasonable rate up to 20 Gyr, and more, also under extreme conditions.

  20. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  1. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)

  2. Assertiveness expectancies: how hard people push depends on the consequences they predict.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ames, Daniel R

    2008-12-01

    The present article seeks to explain varying levels of assertiveness in interpersonal conflict and negotiations with assertiveness expectancies, idiosyncratic predictions people make about the social and instrumental consequences of assertive behavior. This account complements motivation-based models of assertiveness and competitiveness, suggesting that individuals may possess the same social values (e.g., concern for relationships) but show dramatically different assertiveness due to different assumptions about behavioral consequences. Results clarify the form of assertiveness expectancies, namely that most people assume increasing assertiveness can yield positive social and instrumental benefits up to a point, beyond which benefits decline. However, people vary in how assertive this perceived optimal point is. These individual differences in expectancies are linked in 4 studies to assertiveness, including self-reported assertiveness, rated behavioral preferences in assorted interpersonal conflict scenarios, partner ratings of participants' behavior in a face-to-face dyadic negotiation, and work colleague ratings of participants' assertiveness in the workplace. In each case, the link between expectancies and behavior remained after controlling for values. The results suggest a place for expectancies alongside values in psychological models of interpersonal assertiveness.

  3. Using data to help increase STEM retention rates for at-risk students; Student expectations and skill building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Jones, G.; Heaney, A.

    2013-12-01

    Retention in the STEM fields is often a focus for higher education due to a shortage of trained workforce members. In particular, much effort has been spent on first year retention rates and introductory level courses under the assumption that students are more likely to drop out of STEM majors early in their higher education degree progress. While the retention rates of women, minorities, and low income students have been a priority by both the National Science Foundation and the private sector, we are interested in at-risk first year students for this study. The University of Wyoming Synergy Program's goal is to promote academic success and retention for underprepared and at-risk students by creating a series of first semester curricula as theme-based college transition skills courses that are paired with English courses. This creates a cohort group of courses for the students with increased communication between instructors at the same time allowing greater development of student social networks. In this study we are highlighting the results of the STEM students as compared with other at-risk participants in the program. The Synergy Program enrolls approximately 144 students each year with pre- and post-course surveys that directly measure which college skills students select as important as well as student expectations of the amount of time required for STEM courses. Follow-up surveys track the same queries for students who persist to their junior and senior year. In addition, instructors complete a summative survey about skills they find important to student success and individual student's challenges and successes with a variety of skills. Our results show a large gap in skills between those identified as important by students and those identified by their instructors. Expectations for the amount of time required to complete work for STEM courses and the reported time spent on course work are not constant when progressing throughout college. This analysis

  4. Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

    2016-04-01

    factors leads to the urgent questions of what we might expect from future heavy precipitation, particularly summertime convective storms, and how the associated risks will change if the observed trends persist. Working on an event basis allows us to consider a robust diversity of indicators such as storm duration, total sums, and peak intensities of the individual rainfall events in our analysis. First results suggest that the temperature sensitivity of precipitation events in the study region generally rises in accordance with the CC rate, but rates diverge dependent on the spatio-temporal properties of the sampling. At high temperatures above about 25 °C, the heaviest events do not show increases beyond the CC rate, as have been reported in some other studies for temperatures below 25°C. This is likely due to limitations of moisture availability in hot summer conditions. Observations of relative humidity available for 77 out of the 188 stations used support this hypothesis. When events where humidity is well below saturation are excluded from the sample, quantile regression results show higher scaling rates. The preliminary findings underline the need for a more sophisticated analysis of the temperature-precipitation relationship especially in heterogeneous regions with complex terrain.

  5. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Deilk?s, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstr?m, Jonas Christoffer; Nyl?n, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). Design: All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, exc...

  6. What has contributed to the change in life expectancy in Italy between 1980 and 1992?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngongo, K N; Nante, N; Chenet, L; McKee, M

    1999-07-01

    Life expectancy at birth in southern Europe is known to be greater than expected in comparison with levels of economic development. This has been attributed to the 'Mediterranean diet'. There are, however, concerns that this comparative advantage is being lost. This paper examines the factors underlying changing life expectancy in Italy since 1980. The subjects of this analysis are obtained from data on all deaths in Italy between 1980 and 1992. Change in age specific death rates is calculated from selected causes and, using the method developed by Pollard, the contribution of deaths from different causes and at different ages to changing life expectancy at birth is estimated. Between 1980 and 1992, life expectancy at birth increased by 2.70 years for men and 2.75 years for women. Death rates have fallen among children and those over 40. In contrast, death rates have increased among men aged between 20 and 39 and have increased very slightly among women aged 25-29. Falling death rates from ischaemic heart disease are continuing to contribute to increasing life expectancy. Death rates from lung and breast cancer are rising among women but are compensated for by falling death rates from other cancers. Among men, falling death rates from cancer at younger ages are being offset by increases at older ages. The rising death rate among younger men is almost entirely due to AIDS, with accidents also making a small contribution. Life expectancy in Italy has improved throughout the 1980s, largely driven by falling death rates from cardiovascular diseases. Here are, however, some worrying trends, most notably the rising death rate among young men, due almost entirely to AIDS. The changing pattern of mortality has some similarities with Spain, another Mediterranean country, but there are also important differences.

  7. Observations of hydrotectonic stress/strain events at a basement high at the Nicoya outer rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tryon, M. D.; Brown, K. M.

    2005-12-01

    There is substantial and growing evidence from heat flow and coring investigations that the oceanic plate off Costa Rica is highly hydrologically active and that this activity is responsible for one of the most anomalously cold thermal environments encountered in the oceanic environment. Recent work by Fisher, et al. has identified limited regions above certain topographic highs with extremely high heat flows. Pore water profiles from cores above these thinly sedimented basement highs suggest upward flow on the order of ~1 cm/yr. These highs may be the principal regions of out-flow from the basement in this region and, thus, can potentially be used to constrain the general level of hydrologic activity. The nine Chemical and Aqueous Transport (CAT) meters we deployed at one of the highest heatflow sites provide a temporal record of both in-flow and out-flow of aqueous fluids at rates as low as 0.1 mm/yr. Our objective was to provide a direct measurement of long term flow rates to address the following questions: (1) What are the characteristic fluid fluxes at basement highs of the low heat flow region of the northern Costa Rican incoming plate, and (2) is this flow temporally variable? The results of the instrument deployments agree quite closely in general with the coring results in that the background rates are on the order of 1 cm/yr or less. There is, however, considerable detail in the temporal records which suggest small scale tectonic stress transients causing temporary increases in flow rate. While this is certainly not an area of major tectonic activity, the site is located at the top of the outer rise where one would expect bending-related stress and fault reactivation to occur. The CAT meters are capable of detecting minute strain events in the underlying sediments and therefore may be detecting small localized strain events. Two periods of increased flow lasting a few weeks each occur during the 5 month deployment and are indicated on all of the

  8. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Clark, Matthew T; Lake, Douglas E; Randall Moorman, J; Delos, John B; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John

    2016-01-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm—stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events—may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge. (paper)

  9. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C.K.; Ozgul, A.; Oli, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture–mark–recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  10. The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors

    OpenAIRE

    John Y. Campbell; Robert J. Shiller

    1986-01-01

    A linearization of a rational expectations present value model for corporate stock prices produces a simple relation between the log dividend-price ratio and mathematical expectations of future log real dividend changes and future real discount rates. This relation can be tested using vector autoregressive methods. Three versions of the linearized model, differing in the measure of discount rates, are tested for U. S. time series 1871-1986: versions using real interest rate data, aggregate re...

  11. Search for anomalous production of events with a high energy lepton and photon at the Tevatron

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loginov, Andrey Borisovich [State Scientific Center of the Russian Federation. Inst. for Theoretical and Experimental Physics, Moscow (Russian Federation)

    2006-01-01

    We present results of a search for the anomalous production of events containing a high-transverse momentum charged lepton (ℓ, either e or μ) and photon (γ), accompanied by missing transverse energy (ET), and/or additional leptons and photons, and jets (X). We use the same kinematic selection criteria as in a previous CDF search, but with a substantially larger data set, 305 pb-1, a p$\\bar{p}$ collision energy of 1.96 TeV, and the upgraded CDF II detector. We find 42 ℓγET events versus a standard model expectation of 37.3 ± 5.4 events. The level of excess observed in Run I, 16 events with an expectation of 7.6 ± 0.7 events (corresponding to a 2.7 σ effect), is not supported by the new data. In the signature of ℓℓγ + X we observe 31 events versus an expectation of 23.0 ± 2.7 events. In this sample we find no events with an extra photon or ET and so find no events like the one eeγγ ET event observed in Run I.

  12. Application of IAEA's International Nuclear Event Scale to events at testing/research reactors in Japan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nozawa, Masao; Watanabe, Norio

    1999-01-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is a means for providing prompt, clear and consistent information related to nuclear events and facilitating communication between the nuclear community, the media and the public on such events. This paper describes the INES rating process for events at testing/research reactors and nuclear fuel processing facilities and experience on the application of the INES scale in Japan. (author)

  13. Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fukač, Martin

    -, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

  14. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  15. More in hope than expectation: a systematic review of women's expectations and experience of pain relief in labour

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Macphail Sheila

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Childbirth is one of the most painful events that a woman is likely to experience, the multi-dimensional aspect and intensity of which far exceeds disease conditions. A woman's lack of knowledge about the risks and benefits of the various methods of pain relief can heighten anxiety. Women are increasingly expected, and are expecting, to participate in decisions about their healthcare. Involvement should allow women to make better-informed decisions; the National Institute for Clinical Excellence has stated that we need effective ways of supporting pregnant women in making informed decisions during labour. Our aim was to systematically review the empirical literature on women's expectations and experiences of pain and pain relief during labour, as well as their involvement in the decision-making process. Methods A systematic review was conducted using the following databases: Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online (MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL, Bath Information and Database Service (BIDS, Excerpta Medica Database Guide (EMBASE, Midwives Information and Resource (MIDIRS, Sociological Abstracts and PsychINFO. Studies that examined experience and expectations of pain, and its relief in labour, were appraised and the findings were integrated into a systematic review. Results Appraisal revealed four key themes: the level and type of pain, pain relief, involvement in decision-making and control. Studies predominantly showed that women underestimated the pain they would experience. Women may hope for a labour free of pain relief, but many found that they needed or benefited from it. There is a distinction between women's desire for a drug-free labour and the expectation that they may need some sort of pain relief. Inaccurate or unrealistic expectations about pain may mean that women are not prepared appropriately for labour. Many women acknowledged that they wanted to

  16. Patients' identification and reporting of unsafe events at six hospitals in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomonori; Fujita, Shigeru; Seto, Kanako; Kitazawa, Takefumi; Matsumoto, Kunichika

    2011-11-01

    Hospitals and other health care organizations have increasingly recognized the need to engage patients as participants in patient safety. A study was conducted to compare patients' and health care staff's identification and reporting of such events. A questionnaire was administered at six hospitals in Japan to outpatients and inpatients from November 2004 through February 2007. Patients were asked to respond to questions about experiences of possibly unsafe events. Patients experiencing such events were then asked about the events and whether they had reported their experience to health care staff. A specialist panel classified reported events as "uneasy-dissatisfying" or "unsafe." The response rates of outpatients and inpatients were 85.4% (1,506/1,764) and 54.3% (1,738/3,198), respectively. Among the respondents (> or = 20 years of age), 125 (8.7%) of the outpatients and 185 (10.9%) of the inpatients experienced uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events; 35 (2.4%) of the outpatients and 67 (4.0%) of the inpatients experienced unsafe events, the percent increasing with hospital stay. Only 38 (30.4%) of the outpatients and 62 (33.5%) of the inpatients reported the unsafe events to health care staff Only 17.1% of unsafe events reported by inpatients were identified by the in-house reporting systems of adverse events and near misses. For the uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events that patients did not think necessary to report, the patients often felt they were self-evident or easily identifiable by health care staff, had difficulty evaluating the event, did not expect their report to bring any improvement, or even felt that reporting it would create some disadvantage in their medical treatment. Patient reporting programs and in-house reporting systems, among other detection methods, should be regarded as complementary sources of information.

  17. Online Event Selection at the CMS experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Konecki, M

    2004-01-01

    Triggering in the high-rate environment of the LHC is a challenging task. The CMS experiment has developed a two-stage trigger system. The Level-1 Trigger is based on custom hardware devices and is designed to reduce the 40 MHz LHC bunch-crossing rate to a maximum event rate of ~100 kHz. The further reduction of the event rate to O(100 Hz), suitable for permanent storage, is performed in the High-Level Trigger (HLT) which is based on a farm of commercial processors. The methods used for object identification and reconstruction are presented. The CMS event selection strategy is discussed. The performance of the HLT is also given.

  18. On the merging rates of envelope-deprived components of binary systems which can give rise to supernova events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tornambe, Amedo

    1989-01-01

    We derive theoretical rates of mergings of envelope-deprived components of binary systems, which can give rise to supernova events. The effects of the various assumptions one is forced to make on the physical properties of the progenitor system and of its evolutionary behaviour through common envelope phases are discussed. Four cases have been analysed: CO-CO, He-CO, He-He double degenerate mergings and He star-CO dwarf merging. (author)

  19. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  20. Hazard rate for a two-channel protective system subject to a high demand rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliveira, L.F.; Youngblood, R.; Melo, P.F.F.

    1989-01-01

    A basic figure of merit associated with a protective system for an industrial plant is the number of accidents expected to occur in the plant within a given period of time, with the system installed. By definition, in a plant equipped with a protective system, an accident can only happen if an initiating event (a demand) occurs while the protective system is unavailable, that is, while it is in one of its possible failed states. This means that the hazard rate or accident frequency depends on the demand rate and on the unavailability of the protective systems. It has long been recognized that the demand rate influences the unavailability of the protective system, and practical expressions incorporating that effect have been developed for single-channel (Lees, 1982) and multi-channel (Kumamoto and Henley 1978) protective systems. The effect has also been incorporated into a Markovian treatment of a plant protection system (Papazoglou and Cho, 1985). In a previous paper (Oliveira and Netto, 1987) a Markovian approach was used to derive analytical expressions for the evaluation of the plant hazard rate for a single-channel protective system, properly accounting for the effects of the demand and the repair rates. In this paper the authors present an extension of that model to the case of a plant equipped with a two-channel protective system

  1. Expectation values of the e+PsH system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, J.-Y.; Mitroy, J.

    2007-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + PsH are computed using a ground-state wave function consisting of 1500 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + PsH ∞ energy was -0.810 254 hartrees, which has a binding energy of 0.021 057 hartrees against dissociation into e + +PsH. The 2γ annihilation rate was 2.7508x10 9 s -1 . Binding energies and annihilation rates are also given for the different finite-mass variants of e + PsH. Comparisons between expectation values for e + PsH and PsH provide compelling evidence that the e + PsH ground state can be regarded as consisting of a weakly bound positron orbiting the PsH ground state

  2. Consumer concerns and expectations about novel food processing technologies: effects on product liking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardello, Armand V

    2003-06-01

    Eighty-eight consumers participated in a blind pre-test in which they rated their baseline preference for chocolate pudding, their liking of three tasted brands of chocolate pudding, and their level of concern for 20 different food processing and preservation technologies. All returned one month later and tasted the same puddings, but this time they were informed that they had been processed by one of several different novel or traditional food processing techniques. Different sub-groups were informed of the name of the process, the name plus a factual description of the process, or the name, the factual description, plus a benefit statement. Ratings of expected liking were obtained before and after viewing the samples, but before tasting them. Finally, subjects tasted and rated the products for actual liking and a sub-group rated their concern levels for the same 20 technologies rated in the pre-test. Pre-test results showed females to have significantly higher concern levels for all technologies. Individuals who had demonstrated a willingness to consume foods processed by one novel technology (irradiation) had lower concern ratings for all technologies. Ratings of concern were negatively correlated with expected liking for products believed to be processed by the technologies. Expected liking ratings were positively influenced by visual exposure to the product and by a safety and benefit statement. Linear regression of the change in product liking as a function of whether products were better or worse than expected supported an assimilation model of the effect of disconfirmed expectations on liking/disliking. Lastly, post-test concern levels for many of the technologies were reduced by participation in the study.

  3. Information-Theoretic Properties of Auditory Sequences Dynamically Influence Expectation and Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agres, Kat; Abdallah, Samer; Pearce, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    A basic function of cognition is to detect regularities in sensory input to facilitate the prediction and recognition of future events. It has been proposed that these implicit expectations arise from an internal predictive coding model, based on knowledge acquired through processes such as statistical learning, but it is unclear how different…

  4. Increase in social inequality in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    AIMS: Health expectancy represents the average lifetime in various states of health and differs among social groups. The purpose of the study was to determine trends in social inequality in health expectancy since 1994 between groups with high, medium and low educational levels in Denmark. METHODS...... educational level, the increase was 2.7 years for men and 2.2 years for women. The difference between people with low and high educational level in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 2.0 and 1.3 years for 30-year-old men and women, respectively. The social gap also increased for other...... indicators. CONCLUSIONS: During the past 12 years, social inequality in life expectancy and health expectancy has increased in Denmark, but the proportion of the population with a low educational level has decreased....

  5. Observation of monojet events and tentative interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buskulic, D.; Casper, D.; de Bonis, I.; Decamp, D.; Ghez, P.; Goy, C.; Lees, J.-P.; Minard, M.-N.; Odier, P.; Pietrzyk, B.; Ariztazabal, F.; Chmeissani, M.; Crespo, J. M.; Efthymiopoulos, I.; Fernandez, E.; Fernandez-Bosman, M.; Gaitan, V.; Garrido, Ll.; Martinez, M.; Mattison, T.; Orteu, S.; Pacheco, A.; Padilla, C.; Palla, F.; Pascual, A.; Perlas, J. A.; Teubert, F.; Creanza, D.; de Palma, M.; Farilla, A.; Iaselli, G.; Maggi, G.; Marinelli, N.; Natali, S.; Nuzzo, S.; Ranieri, A.; Raso, G.; Romano, F.; Ruggieri, F.; Selvaggi, G.; Silvestris, L.; Tempesta, P.; Zito, G.; Chai, Y.; Huang, D.; Huang, X.; Lin, J.; Wang, T.; Xie, Y.; Xu, D.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, L.; Zhao, W.; Donvicini, G.; Boudreau, J.; Comas, P.; Coyle, P.; Drevermann, H.; Engelhardt, A.; Foà, L.; Forty, R. W.; Ganis, G.; Gay, C.; Girone, M.; Hagelberg, R.; Harvey, J.; Jacobsen, R.; Jost, B.; Knobloch, J.; Lehraus, I.; Maggi, M.; Markou, C.; Martin, E. B.; Mato, P.; Meinhard, H.; Minten, A.; Miquel, R.; Palazzi, P.; Pater, J. R.; Perrodo, P.; Pusztaszeri, J.-F.; Ranjard, F.; Rolandi, L.; Rothberg, J.; Saich, M.; Schlatter, D.; Schmelling, M.; Tejessy, W.; Tomalin, I. R.; Veenhof, R.; Venturi, A.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wasserbaech, S.; Wiedenmann, W.; Wildish, T.; Witzeling, W.; Wotschack, J.; Ajaltouni, Z.; Bardadin-Otwinowska, M.; Barres, A.; Boyer, C.; Falvard, A.; Gay, P.; Guicheney, C.; Henrard, P.; Jousset, J.; Michel, B.; Montret, J.-C.; Pallin, D.; Perret, P.; Podlyski, F.; Proriol, J.; Saadi, F.; Fearnley, T.; Hansen, J. B.; Hansen, J. D.; Hansen, J. R.; Hansen, P. H.; Johnson, S. D.; Møllerud, R.; Nilsson, B. S.; Kyriakis, A.; Simopoulou, E.; Siotis, I.; Vayaki, A.; Zachariadou, K.; Blondel, A.; Bonneaud, G.; Brient, J. C.; Bourdon, P.; Passalacqua, L.; Rougé, A.; Rumpf, M.; Tanaka, R.; Valassi, A.; Verderi, M.; Videau, H.; Candlin, D. J.; Parsons, M. I.; Veitch, E.; Focardi, E.; Parrini, G.; Corden, M.; Delfino, M.; Georgiopoulos, C.; Jaffe, D. E.; Levinthal, D.; Antonelli, A.; Bencivenni, G.; Bologna, G.; Bossi, F.; Campana, P.; Capon, G.; Cerutti, F.; Chiarella, V.; Felici, G.; Laurelli, P.; Mannocchi, G.; Murtas, F.; Murtas, G. P.; Pepe-Altarelli, M.; Salomone, S.; Colrain, P.; Ten Have, I.; Knowles, I. G.; Lynch, J. G.; Maitland, W.; Morton, W. T.; Raine, C.; Reeves, P.; Scarr, J. M.; Smith, K.; Smith, M. G.; Thompson, A. S.; Thorn, S.; Turnbull, R. M.; Becker, U.; Braun, O.; Geweniger, C.; Hanke, P.; Hepp, V.; Kluge, E. E.; Putzer, A.; Rensch, B.; Schmidt, M.; Stenzel, H.; Tittel, K.; Wunsch, M.; Beuselinck, R.; Binnie, D. M.; Cameron, W.; Cattaneo, M.; Colling, D. J.; Dornan, P. J.; Hassard, J. F.; Konstantinidis, N.; Moneta, L.; Moutoussi, A.; Nash, J.; Payne, D. G.; San Martin, G.; Sedgbeer, J. K.; Wright, A. G.; Girtler, P.; Kuhn, D.; Rudolph, G.; Vogl, R.; Bowdery, C. K.; Brodbeck, T. J.; Finch, A. J.; Foster, F.; Hughes, G.; Jackson, D.; Keemer, N. R.; Nuttall, M.; Patel, A.; Sloan, T.; Snow, S. W.; Whelan, E. P.; Galla, A.; Greene, A. M.; Kleinknecht, K.; Raab, J.; Renk, B.; Sander, H.-G.; Schmidt, H.; Walther, S. M.; Wanke, R.; Wolf, B.; Bencheikh, A. M.; Benchouk, C.; Bonissent, A.; Calvet, D.; Carr, J.; Diaconu, C.; Etienne, F.; Nicod, D.; Payre, P.; Roos, L.; Rousseau, D.; Schwemling, P.; Talby, M.; Abt, I.; Adlung, S.; Assmann, R.; Bauer, C.; Blum, W.; Brown, D.; Cattaneo, P.; Dehning, B.; Dietl, H.; Dydak, F.; Frank, M.; Halley, A. W.; Jakobs, K.; Kroha, H.; Lauber, J.; Lütjens, G.; Lutz, G.; Männer, W.; Moser, H.-G.; Richter, R.; Schröder, J.; Schwarz, A. S.; Settles, R.; Seywerd, H.; Stierlin, U.; Stiegler, U.; St. Denis, R.; Wolf, G.; Alemany, R.; Boucrot, J.; Callot, O.; Cordier, A.; Courault, F.; Davier, M.; Duflot, L.; Grivaz, J.-F.; Heusse, Ph.; Jacquet, M.; Janot, P.; Kim, D. W.; Le Diberder, F.; Lefrançois, J.; Lutz, A.-M.; Musolino, G.; Nikolic, I.; Park, H. J.; Park, I. C.; Schune, M.-H.; Simion, S.; Veillet, J.-J.; Videau, I.; Abbaneo, D.; Bagliwsi, G.; Batignani, G.; Bottigli, U.; Bozzi, C.; Calderini, G.; Carpinelli, M.; Ciocci, M. A.; Ciulli, V.; Dell'Orso, R.; Ferrante, I.; Fidecaro, F.; Forti, F.; Giassi, A.; Giorgi, M. A.; Gregorio, A.; Ligabue, F.; Lusiani, A.; Marrocchesi, P. S.; Messineo, A.; Rizzo, G.; Sanguinetti, G.; Spagnolo, P.; Steinberger, J.; Tenchini, R.; Tonelli, G.; Triggiani, G.; Vannini, C.; Verdini, P. G.; Walsh, J.; Betteridge, A. P.; Gao, Y.; Green, M. G.; Johnson, D. L.; March, P. V.; Medcalf, T.; Mir, Ll. M.; Quazi, I. S.; Strong, J. A.; Bertin, V.; Botterill, D. R.; Clifft, R. W.; Edgecock, T. R.; Haywood, S.; Edwards, M.; Norton, P. R.; Thompson, J. C.; Bloch-Devaux, B.; Colas, P.; Duarte, H.; Emery, S.; Kozanecki, W.; Lançon, E.; Lemaire, M. C.; Locci, E.; Marx, B.; Perez, P.; Rander, J.; Renardy, J.-F.; Rosowsky, A.; Roussarie, A.; Schuller, J.-P.; Schwindling, J.; Si Mohand, D.; Vallage, B.; Johnson, R. P.; Litke, A. M.; Taylor, G.; Wear, J.; Beddall, A.; Booth, C. N.; Cartwright, S.; Combley, F.; Dawson, I.; Koksal, A.; Rankin, C.; Thompson, L. F.; Böhrer, A.; Brandt, S.; Cowan, G.; Feigl, E.; Grupen, C.; Lutters, G.; Minguet-Rodriguez, J.; Rivera, F.; Saraiva, P.; Schäfer, U.; Smolik, L.; Bosisio, L.; Della Marina, R.; Giannini, G.; Gobbo, B.; Pitis, L.; Ragusa, F.; Bellantoni, L.; Conway, J. S.; Feng, Z.; Ferguson, D. P. S.; Gao, Y. S.; Grahl, J.; Harton, J. L.; Hayes, O. J.; Hu, H.; Nachtman, J. M.; Pan, Y. B.; Saadi, Y.; Schmitt, M.; Scott, I.; Sharma, V.; Turk, J. D.; Walsh, A. M.; Weber, F. V.; San Lan Wu; Wu, X.; Yamartino, J. M.; Zheng, M.; Zobernig, G.; Aleph Collaboration

    1994-08-01

    A data sample corresponding to almost two million hadronic Z decays collected by the ALEPH detector at LEP has been searched for monojet events. Three events were found, in agreement with the expectation from the process ee→γ*vvbar, with γ*→ffbar. Two events are hadronic, the third one being an e+e- pair. All monojet masses are in excess of 3 GeV/c2, and two of the event have large transverse momenta: 18.5 and 20.3 GeV/c. These kinematic characteristics are quite unlikely in the process ee→γ*vvbar. The probability of their occurence increases substantially when processes involving further Z or W exchanges are taken into account, but still remains at the 5% level.

  6. Rate of ice accumulation during ice storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feknous, N. [SNC-Lavalin, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Chouinard, L. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Sabourin, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    The rate of glaze ice accumulation is the result of a complex process dependent on numerous meteorological and physical factors. The aim of this paper was to estimate the distribution rate of glaze ice accumulation on conductors in southern Quebec for use in the design of mechanical and electrical de-icing devices. The analysis was based on direct observations of ice accumulation collected on passive ice meters. The historical database of Hydro-Quebec, which contains observations at over 140 stations over period of 25 years, was used to compute accumulation rates. Data was processed so that each glaze ice event was numbered in a chronological sequence. Each event consisted of the time series of ice accumulations on each of the 8 cylinders of the ice meters, as well as on 5 of its surfaces. Observed rates were converted to represent the average ice on a 30 mm diameter conductor at 30 m above ground with a span of 300 m. Observations were corrected to account for the water content of the glaze ice as evidenced by the presence of icicles. Results indicated that despite significant spatial variations in the expected severity of ice storms as a function of location, the distribution function for rates of accumulation were fairly similar and could be assumed to be independent of location. It was concluded that the observations from several sites could be combined in order to obtain better estimates of the distribution of hourly rates of ice accumulation. However, the rates were highly variable. For de-icing strategies, it was suggested that average accumulation rates over 12 hour periods were preferable, and that analyses should be performed for other time intervals to account for the variability in ice accumulation rates over time. In addition, accumulation rates did not appear to be highly correlated with average wind speed for maximum hourly accumulation rates. 3 refs., 2 tabs., 10 figs.

  7. INES: The International Nuclear Event Scale user's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-09-01

    The revised and extended addition of the International Nuclear Event Scale is presented. The manual is comprised of four parts. Part 1 contains a summary of the basis of the scale and of the procedure to be used for rating events. Part 2 contains the detailed guidance required to rate events in terms of off-site and on-site impact. These two parts are applicable to all nuclear facilities. Parts 3 and 4 contain the detailed guidance required to rate events in terms of defence in depth for reactors and other facilities, respectively. 5 figs, 2 tabs

  8. Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    So, Emily; Spence, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

  9. Alcohol Expectancies and Inhibition Conflict as Moderators of the Alcohol-Unprotected Sex Relationship: Event-Level Findings from a Daily Diary Study Among Individuals Living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiene, Susan M; Simbayi, Leickness C; Abrams, Amber; Cloete, Allanise

    2016-01-01

    Literature from sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere supports a global association between alcohol and HIV risk. However, more rigorous studies using multiple event-level methods find mixed support for this association, suggesting the importance of examining potential moderators of this relationship. The present study explores the assumptions of alcohol expectancy theory and alcohol myopia theory as possible moderators that help elucidate the circumstances under which alcohol may affect individuals' ability to use a condom. Participants were 82 individuals (58 women, 24 men) living with HIV who completed daily phone interviews for 42 days which assessed daily sexual behavior and alcohol consumption. Logistic generalized estimating equation models were used to examine the potential moderating effects of inhibition conflict and sex-related alcohol outcome expectancies. The data provided some support for both theories and in some cases the moderation effects were stronger when both partners consumed alcohol.

  10. Sixteen-month-olds can use language to update their expectations about the visual world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganea, Patricia A; Fitch, Allison; Harris, Paul L; Kaldy, Zsuzsa

    2016-11-01

    The capacity to use language to form new representations and to revise existing knowledge is a crucial aspect of human cognition. Here we examined whether infants can use language to adjust their representation of a recently encoded scene. Using an eye-tracking paradigm, we asked whether 16-month-old infants (N=26; mean age=16;0 [months;days], range=14;15-17;15) can use language about an occluded event to inform their expectation about what the world will look like when the occluder is removed. We compared looking time to outcome scenes that matched the language input with looking time to those that did not. Infants looked significantly longer at the event outcome when the outcome did not match the language input, suggesting that they generated an expectation of the outcome based on that input alone. This effect was unrelated to infants' vocabulary size. Thus, using language to adjust expectations about the visual world is present at an early developmental stage even when language skills are rudimentary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. CMS collision events (7 TeV): candidate ZZ to 4 muons

    CERN Multimedia

    Taylor, L

    2011-01-01

    Real CMS proton-proton collisions events in which 4 high energy muons (red lines) are observed. The event shows characteristics expected from the decay of a Higgs boson but is also consistent with background Standard Model physics processes. Prepared for EPS HEP 2011 Conference.

  12. Event-by-Event Simulation of Induced Fission

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vogt, R; Randrup, J

    2007-12-13

    We are developing a novel code that treats induced fission by statistical (or Monte-Carlo) simulation of individual decay chains. After its initial excitation, the fissionable compound nucleus may either deexcite by evaporation or undergo binary fission into a large number of fission channels each with different energetics involving both energy dissipation and deformed scission prefragments. After separation and Coulomb acceleration, each fission fragment undergoes a succession of individual (neutron) evaporations, leading to two bound but still excited fission products (that may further decay electromagnetically and, ultimately, weakly), as well as typically several neutrons. (The inclusion of other possible ejectiles is planned.) This kind of approach makes it possible to study more detailed observables than could be addressed with previous treatments which have tended to focus on average quantities. In particular, any type of correlation observable can readily be extracted from a generated set of events. With a view towards making the code practically useful in a variety of applications, emphasis is being put on making it numerically efficient so that large event samples can be generated quickly. In its present form, the code can generate one million full events in about 12 seconds on a MacBook laptop computer. The development of this qualitatively new tool is still at an early stage and quantitative reproduction of existing data should not be expected until a number of detailed refinement have been implemented.

  13. Event-by-Event Simulation of Induced Fission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vogt, Ramona; Randrup, Jørgen

    2008-04-01

    We are developing a novel code that treats induced fission by statistical (or Monte-Carlo) simulation of individual decay chains. After its initial excitation, the fissionable compound nucleus may either de-excite by evaporation or undergo binary fission into a large number of fission channels each with different energetics involving both energy dissipation and deformed scission pre-fragments. After separation and Coulomb acceleration, each fission fragment undergoes a succession of individual (neutron) evaporations, leading to two bound but still excited fission products (that may further decay electromagnetically and, ultimately, weakly), as well as typically several neutrons. (The inclusion of other possible ejectiles is planned.) This kind of approach makes it possible to study more detailed observables than could be addressed with previous treatments which have tended to focus on average quantities. In particular, any type of correlation observable can readily be extracted from a generated set of events. With a view towards making the code practically useful in a variety of applications, emphasis is being put on making it numerically efficient so that large event samples can be generated quickly. In its present form, the code can generate one million full events in about 12 seconds on a MacBook laptop computer. The development of this qualitatively new tool is still at an early stage and quantitative reproduction of existing data should not be expected until a number of detailed refinement have been implemented.

  14. Event-by-Event Simulation of Induced Fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, Ramona; Randrup, Joergen

    2008-01-01

    We are developing a novel code that treats induced fission by statistical (or Monte-Carlo) simulation of individual decay chains. After its initial excitation, the fissionable compound nucleus may either de-excite by evaporation or undergo binary fission into a large number of fission channels each with different energetics involving both energy dissipation and deformed scission pre-fragments. After separation and Coulomb acceleration, each fission fragment undergoes a succession of individual (neutron) evaporations, leading to two bound but still excited fission products (that may further decay electromagnetically and, ultimately, weakly), as well as typically several neutrons. (The inclusion of other possible ejectiles is planned.) This kind of approach makes it possible to study more detailed observables than could be addressed with previous treatments which have tended to focus on average quantities. In particular, any type of correlation observable can readily be extracted from a generated set of events. With a view towards making the code practically useful in a variety of applications, emphasis is being put on making it numerically efficient so that large event samples can be generated quickly. In its present form, the code can generate one million full events in about 12 seconds on a MacBook laptop computer. The development of this qualitatively new tool is still at an early stage and quantitative reproduction of existing data should not be expected until a number of detailed refinement have been implemented

  15. Event-by-Event Simulation of Induced Fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogt, R; Randrup, J

    2007-01-01

    We are developing a novel code that treats induced fission by statistical (or Monte-Carlo) simulation of individual decay chains. After its initial excitation, the fissionable compound nucleus may either deexcite by evaporation or undergo binary fission into a large number of fission channels each with different energetics involving both energy dissipation and deformed scission prefragments. After separation and Coulomb acceleration, each fission fragment undergoes a succession of individual (neutron) evaporations, leading to two bound but still excited fission products (that may further decay electromagnetically and, ultimately, weakly), as well as typically several neutrons. (The inclusion of other possible ejectiles is planned.) This kind of approach makes it possible to study more detailed observables than could be addressed with previous treatments which have tended to focus on average quantities. In particular, any type of correlation observable can readily be extracted from a generated set of events. With a view towards making the code practically useful in a variety of applications, emphasis is being put on making it numerically efficient so that large event samples can be generated quickly. In its present form, the code can generate one million full events in about 12 seconds on a MacBook laptop computer. The development of this qualitatively new tool is still at an early stage and quantitative reproduction of existing data should not be expected until a number of detailed refinement have been implemented

  16. When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Object permanence in marine mammals using the violation of expectation procedure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, Rebecca; Henderson, Elizabeth

    2015-03-01

    Object permanence refers to the ability to process information about objects even when they are not visible. One stage of object permanence, called visible displacement, involves being able to find an object that has been fully hidden from view. Visible displacement has been demonstrated in many animal species, yet very little is known about object permanence in marine mammals. In addition, the methodology for testing visible displacement has sometimes been called into question because alternative explanations could account for subjects' success. The current study investigated visible displacement in Atlantic bottlenose dolphins and California sea lions using a methodology called violation of expectation, in which the animal's fish bucket was placed on a table surrounded on three sides by curtains. A solid screen placed in front of the bucket was then rotated in an arc from front to back. The screen was rotated either 120° (possible event) or 180° (surprising event), appearing as if the bucket disappeared. Both dolphins and sea lions looked significantly longer during the 180°, unexpected, trials than the expected event trials. Results suggest that both dolphins and sea lions pass visible displacement tests without the use of perceptual cues. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Tribute to Tom Zentall. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Great Expectations: The Persistent Effect of Institutions on Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Litina, Anastasia

    2014-01-01

    This research exploits the event of immigration to establish that institutions have a persistent effect on culture. It is argued that immigrants coming from corrupt countries, tend to overtrust the institutions at the host country. This inflated trust of immigrants is documented as the Great Expectations effect. This result is interesting and intriguing for several reasons. First, it highlights the persistent effect of institutions (at the origin coun- try) on the cultural attitudes of immigr...

  19. A Novel Approach For Event-By-Event Early Gluon Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fries, Rainer J.; Rose, Steven

    2017-08-01

    We report on efforts to construct an event generator that calculates the classical gluon field generated at early times in high energy nuclear collisions. Existing approaches utilize numerical solutions of the Yang-Mills equations after the collision. In contrast we employ the analytically known recursion relation in the forward light cone. The few lowest orders are expected to lead to reliable results for times of up to the inverse saturation scale, τ0 ∼ 1 /Qs. In these proceedings we sketch some calculational details, and show some preliminary results.

  20. Marijuana Effect Expectancies: Relations to Social Anxiety and Marijuana Use Problems

    OpenAIRE

    Buckner, Julia D.; Schmidt, Norman B.

    2008-01-01

    High social anxiety is related to marijuana problems, yet the nature of this relation remains unclear. We examined relations between marijuana effect expectancies, social anxiety, and marijuana among undergraduates (N=337). Social anxiety was related positively to negative expectancies and negatively to Tension Reduction Expectancies. Among socially anxious individuals, greater belief that marijuana produces cognitive/behavioral impairment was associated with greater marijuana use rates. Nega...

  1. Nonlinear response of hail precipitation rate to environmental moisture content: A real case modeling study of an episodic midlatitude severe convective event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingxin; Zhang, Fuqing; Zhang, Qinghong; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Kumjian, Matthew R.

    2017-07-01

    The dependence of hail production on initial moisture content in a simulated midlatitude episodic convective event occurred in northeast China on 10-11 June 2005 was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a double-moment microphysics scheme where both graupel and hail are considered. Three sensitivity experiments were performed by modifying the initial water vapor mixing ratio profile to 90% ("Q-10%"), 105% ("Q+5%"), and 110% ("Q+10%") of the initial conditions used for the control simulation. It was found that increasing the initial water vapor content caused the hail and total precipitation rates to increase during the first 5 h. The precipitation response to increasing water vapor content was monotonic for this first episode; however, for the event's second episode, the hail precipitation rate responds to the initial water vapor profile nonlinearly, while the total precipitation rate responds mostly monotonically. In particular, simulation Q+5% achieves the largest hail production rate while simulation Q+10% has the largest total precipitation rate. In contrast, during the second episode simulation Q-10% has the strongest vertical motion, produces the most cloud ice and snow, but has the lowest hail production. Analysis shows that increasing the initial moisture content directly increases the precipitation during the first episode, which subsequently induces a stronger, longer-lasting cold pool that limits the development of deep convection during the second episode.

  2. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-01-01

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units

  3. Cosmic rays Monte Carlo simulations for the Extreme Energy Events Project

    CERN Document Server

    Abbrescia, M; Aiola, S; Antolini, R; Avanzini, C; Baldini Ferroli, R; Bencivenni, G; Bossini, E; Bressan, E; Chiavassa, A; Cicalò, C; Cifarelli, L; Coccia, E; De Gruttola, D; De Pasquale, S; Di Giovanni, A; D'Incecco, M; Dreucci, M; Fabbri, F L; Frolov, V; Garbini, M; Gemme, G; Gnesi, I; Gustavino, C; Hatzifotiadou, D; La Rocca, P; Li, S; Librizzi, F; Maggiora, A; Massai, M; Miozzi, S; Panareo, M; Paoletti, R; Perasso, L; Pilo, F; Piragino, G; Regano, A; Riggi, F; Righini, G C; Sartorelli, G; Scapparone, E; Scribano, A; Selvi, M; Serci, S; Siddi, E; Spandre, G; Squarcia, S; Taiuti, M; Tosello, F; Votano, L; Williams, M C S; Yánez, G; Zichichi, A; Zuyeuski, R

    2014-01-01

    The Extreme Energy Events Project (EEE Project) is an innovative experiment to study very high energy cosmic rays by means of the detection of the associated air shower muon component. It consists of a network of tracking detectors installed inside Italian High Schools. Each tracking detector, called EEE telescope, is composed of three Multigap Resistive Plate Chambers (MRPCs). At present, 43 telescopes are installed and taking data, opening the way for the detection of far away coincidences over a total area of about 3 × 10 5 km 2 . In this paper we present the Monte Carlo simulations that have been performed to predict the expected coincidence rate between distant EEE telescopes.

  4. Expectations for direct photon physics from Fermilab experiment E705

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagoner, D.E.; Arenton, M.; Chen, T.Y.

    1987-11-01

    The E705 scintillation glass/lead glass electromagnetic calorimeter is described. The trigger used for recording high transverse momentum direct photon signals from 300 GeV/c π/sup /minus//, π + , /bar p/, p interactions in a Li 7 target is explained. Preliminary results on the response of this direct photon trigger and electromagnetic calorimeter and expected event sensitivities are presented. 14 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  5. Network Events on Multiple Space and Time Scales in Cultured Neural Networks and in a Stochastic Rate Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido Gigante

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Cortical networks, in-vitro as well as in-vivo, can spontaneously generate a variety of collective dynamical events such as network spikes, UP and DOWN states, global oscillations, and avalanches. Though each of them has been variously recognized in previous works as expression of the excitability of the cortical tissue and the associated nonlinear dynamics, a unified picture of the determinant factors (dynamical and architectural is desirable and not yet available. Progress has also been partially hindered by the use of a variety of statistical measures to define the network events of interest. We propose here a common probabilistic definition of network events that, applied to the firing activity of cultured neural networks, highlights the co-occurrence of network spikes, power-law distributed avalanches, and exponentially distributed 'quasi-orbits', which offer a third type of collective behavior. A rate model, including synaptic excitation and inhibition with no imposed topology, synaptic short-term depression, and finite-size noise, accounts for all these different, coexisting phenomena. We find that their emergence is largely regulated by the proximity to an oscillatory instability of the dynamics, where the non-linear excitable behavior leads to a self-amplification of activity fluctuations over a wide range of scales in space and time. In this sense, the cultured network dynamics is compatible with an excitation-inhibition balance corresponding to a slightly sub-critical regime. Finally, we propose and test a method to infer the characteristic time of the fatigue process, from the observed time course of the network's firing rate. Unlike the model, possessing a single fatigue mechanism, the cultured network appears to show multiple time scales, signalling the possible coexistence of different fatigue mechanisms.

  6. Documenting and explaining the common AAB pattern in music and humor: establishing and breaking expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rozin, Paul; Rozin, Alexander; Appel, Brian; Wachtel, Charles

    2006-08-01

    The AAB pattern consists of two similar events followed by a third dissimilar event. The prevalence of this pattern in the aesthetic domain may be explained as violation of expectation: A minimum of two iterations is required to establish a repetitive pattern; once established, it is most efficient to promptly violate the expected continuance of the pattern to produce the maximal aesthetic effect. We demonstrate the prevalence of this pattern (in comparison to AB or AAAB) in a representative sample of a variety of musical genres and in a representative sample of repetitive genre of jokes. We also provide experimental evidence that the AAB pattern in jokes is maximally effective in producing a humor response in participants. (c) 2006 APA, all rights reserved

  7. Effects of Intervention in the Spot Currency Market on the BRL/USD Exchange Rate from 1999 to 2008: an Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Meurer

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

  8. Seismic potential of weak, near-surface faults revealed at plate tectonic slip rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ikari, Matt J; Kopf, Achim J

    2017-11-01

    The near-surface areas of major faults commonly contain weak, phyllosilicate minerals, which, based on laboratory friction measurements, are assumed to creep stably. However, it is now known that shallow faults can experience tens of meters of earthquake slip and also host slow and transient slip events. Laboratory experiments are generally performed at least two orders of magnitude faster than plate tectonic speeds, which are the natural driving conditions for major faults; the absence of experimental data for natural driving rates represents a critical knowledge gap. We use laboratory friction experiments on natural fault zone samples at driving rates of centimeters per year to demonstrate that there is abundant evidence of unstable slip behavior that was not previously predicted. Specifically, weak clay-rich fault samples generate slow slip events (SSEs) and have frictional properties favorable for earthquake rupture. Our work explains growing field observations of shallow SSE and surface-breaking earthquake slip, and predicts that such phenomena should be more widely expected.

  9. Mortality and life expectancy in persons with severe unipolar depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Musliner, Katherine L; Benros, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is a common psychiatric disorder, with a lifetime prevalence of 10-15% in the Danish population. Although depression is associated with excess mortality, it is not yet understood how this affects life expectancy. Our aim was to examine mortality rates and life expectancy...... in patients with unipolar depression compared to the general population, and to assess the impact of comorbid somatic illness and substance abuse. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort from 1995-2013 (N=5,103,699). The cohort included all residents in Denmark during the study period. Mortality...... rate ratios (MRRs) and life expectancy in persons with unipolar depression were calculated using survival analysis techniques. RESULTS: The overall MRR was 2.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.05-2.09) in people with a previous unipolar depression diagnosis compared to the general Danish population...

  10. Searching for sgluons in multitop events at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV

    CERN Document Server

    Calvet, Samuel; Gris, Philippe; Valery, Loic

    2013-01-01

    Large classes of new physics theories predict the existence of new scalar states, commonly dubbed sgluons, lying in the adjoint representation of the QCD gauge group. Since these new fields are expected to decay into colored Standard Model particles, and in particular into one or two top quarks, these theories predict a possible enhancement of the hadroproduction rate associated with multitop final states. We therefore investigate multitop events produced at the Large Hadron Collider, running at a center-of-mass energy of 8 TeV, and employ those events to probe the possible existence of color adjoint scalar particles. We first construct a simplified effective field theory motivated by R-symmetric supersymmetric models where sgluon fields decay dominantly into top quarks. We then use this model to analyze the sensitivity of the Large Hadron Collider in both a multilepton plus jets and a single lepton plus jets channel. After having based our event selection strategy on the possible presence of two, three and f...

  11. The method of expected number of deaths, 1786-1886-1986.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keiding, N

    1987-04-01

    "The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE) excerpt

  12. Rapidity gaps in jet events at D0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abbott, B.; Abolins, M.; Acharya, B.S.

    1997-07-01

    Preliminary results from the D0 experiment on jet production with rapidity gaps in p anti p collisions are presented. A class of dijet events with a forward rapidity gap is observed at center-of-mass energies √s = 1800 GeV and 630 GeV. The number of events with rapidity gaps at both center-of-mass energies is significantly greater than the expectation from multiplicity fluctuations and is consistent with a hard diffractive process. A class of events with two forward gaps and central dijets is also observed at 1800 GeV. This topology is consistent with hard double pomeron exchange

  13. Empirical recurrence rates for ground motion signals on planetary surfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Ralph D.; Panning, Mark

    2018-03-01

    We determine the recurrence rates of ground motion events as a function of sensed velocity amplitude at several terrestrial locations, and make a first interplanetary comparison with measurements on the Moon, Mars, Venus and Titan. This empirical approach gives an intuitive order-of-magnitude guide to the observed ground motion (including both tectonic and ocean- and atmosphere-forced signals) of these locations as a guide to instrument expectations on future missions, without invoking interior models and specific sources: for example a Venera-14 observation of possible ground motion indicates a microseismic environment mid-way between noisy and quiet terrestrial locations. Quiet terrestrial regions see a peak velocity amplitude in mm/s roughly equal to 0.3*N(-0.7), where N is the number of "events" (half-hour intervals in which a given peak ground motion is exceeded) observed per year. The Apollo data show endogenous seismic signals for a given recurrence rate that are typically about 10,000 times smaller in amplitude than a quiet site on Earth, although local thermally-induced moonquakes are much more common. Viking data masked for low-wind periods appear comparable with a quiet terrestrial site, whereas a Venera observation of microseisms suggests ground motion more similar to a more active terrestrial location. Recurrence rate plots from in-situ measurements provide a context for seismic instrumentation on future planetary missions, e.g. to guide formulation of data compression schemes. While even small geophones can discriminate terrestrial activity rates, observations with guidance accelerometers are typically too insensitive to provide meaningful constraints (i.e. a non-zero number of "events") on actual ground motion observations unless operated for very long periods.

  14. Autistic Traits Affect P300 Response to Unexpected Events, regardless of Mental State Inferences

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mitsuhiko Ishikawa

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Limited use of contextual information has been suggested as a way of understanding cognition in people with autism spectrum disorder (ASD. However, it has also been argued that individuals with ASD may have difficulties inferring others’ mental states. Here, we examined how individuals with different levels of autistic traits respond to contextual deviations by measuring event-related potentials that reflect context usage. The Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ was used to quantify autistic-like traits in 28 university students, and 19 participants were defined as Low or High AQ groups. To additionally examine inferences about mental state, two belief conditions (with or without false belief were included. Participants read short stories in which the final sentence included either an expected or an unexpected word and rated the word’s degree of deviation from expectation. P300 waveform analysis revealed that unexpected words were associated with larger P300 waveforms for the Low AQ group, but smaller P300 responses in the High AQ group. Additionally, AQ social skill subscores were positively correlated with evaluation times in the Unexpected condition, whether a character’s belief was false or not. This suggests that autistic traits can affect responses to unexpected events, possibly because of decreased availability of context information.

  15. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  16. Ionizing Radiation Environment on the International Space Station: Performance vs. Expectations for Avionics and Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Steven L.; Boeder, Paul A.; Pankop, Courtney; Reddell, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    The role of structural shielding mass in the design, verification, and in-flight performance of International Space Station (ISS), in both the natural and induced orbital ionizing radiation (IR) environments, is reported. Detailed consideration of the effects of both the natural and induced ionizing radiation environment during ISS design, development, and flight operations has produced a safe, efficient manned space platform that is largely immune to deleterious effects of the LEO ionizing radiation environment. The assumption of a small shielding mass for purposes of design and verification has been shown to be a valid worst-case approximation approach to design for reliability, though predicted dependences of single event effect (SEE) effects on latitude, longitude, SEP events, and spacecraft structural shielding mass are not observed. The Figure of Merit (FOM) method over predicts the rate for median shielding masses of about 10g/cm(exp 2) by only a factor of 3, while the Scott Effective Flux Approach (SEFA) method overestimated by about one order of magnitude as expected. The Integral Rectangular Parallelepiped (IRPP), SEFA, and FOM methods for estimating on-orbit (Single Event Upsets) SEU rates all utilize some version of the CREME-96 treatment of energetic particle interaction with structural shielding, which has been shown to underestimate the production of secondary particles in heavily shielded manned spacecraft. The need for more work directed to development of a practical understanding of secondary particle production in massive structural shielding for SEE design and verification is indicated. In contrast, total dose estimates using CAD based shielding mass distributions functions and the Shieldose Code provided a reasonable accurate estimate of accumulated dose in Grays internal to the ISS pressurized elements, albeit as a result of using worst-on-worst case assumptions (500 km altitude x 2) that compensate for ignoring both GCR and secondary particle

  17. Climate change and extreme events in weather

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    RameshKumar, M.R.

    reported that the climate based extreme weather event is increasing throughout the world. One of the major chal- lenges before the scientists is to determine whether the ob- served change in extreme weather events exceeds the vari- ability expected through... was recorded in July 1943 on the hills of Mewar and Merwara. Unprecedent flood in Ajmer and Merwara devasted 50 villages and took a toll of 5000 lives (De et al., 2005). Severe Floods occurred to Godavari and Tungabhadra rivers in the last week of August...

  18. Event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major complications of diabetes: a multicountry comparative analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M Clarke

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes imposes a substantial burden globally in terms of premature mortality, morbidity, and health care costs. Estimates of economic outcomes associated with diabetes are essential inputs to policy analyses aimed at prevention and treatment of diabetes. Our objective was to estimate and compare event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major diabetes-related complications in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.Incidence and history of diabetes-related complications, hospital admissions, and length of stay were recorded in 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease (ADVANCE study (mean age at entry 66 y. The probability of hospital utilization and number of days in hospital for major events associated with coronary disease, cerebrovascular disease, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and nephropathy were estimated for three regions (Asia, Eastern Europe, and Established Market Economies using multiple regression analysis. The resulting estimates of days spent in hospital were multiplied by regional estimates of the costs per hospital bed-day from the World Health Organization to compute annual acute and long-term costs associated with the different types of complications. To assist, comparability, costs are reported in international dollars (Int$, which represent a hypothetical currency that allows for the same quantities of goods or services to be purchased regardless of country, standardized on purchasing power in the United States. A cost calculator accompanying this paper enables the estimation of costs for individual countries and translation of these costs into local currency units. The probability of attending a hospital following an event was highest for heart failure (93%-96% across regions and lowest for nephropathy (15%-26%. The average numbers of days in hospital given at least one admission were greatest for stroke (17-32 d across

  19. Assessing the association between omalizumab and arteriothrombotic events through spontaneous adverse event reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Ayad K; Hartzema, Abraham G

    2012-01-01

    Omalizumab is a monoclonal antibody, indicated for the treatment of severe allergic asthma. In Europe, there have been concerns about the cardiovascular safety of omalizumab. The objective of this study was to analyze the association between omalizumab and arterial thrombotic events in a spontaneous adverse drug reaction reporting database in the US. Reports of arterial thrombotic events submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration's Adverse Event Reporting System (AERS) between 2004 and 2011 were retrieved and analyzed by the reporting odds ratio data mining algorithm. The reporting odds ratio of arterial thrombotic events for omalizumab was compared with specific asthma medications and all drugs in the AERS. Values ≥2 were considered significant safety signals. The Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities Preferred Terms were used to identify arterial thrombotic events (eg, stroke, myocardial infarction). In total, 293,783 reports of arterial thrombotic events were retrieved (about 2% of all adverse drug reaction reports), corresponding to 2274 asthma drug-arterial thrombotic events pairs (omalizumab, 222; inhaled corticosteroids [ICS], 131; long-acting beta-agonists [LABA], 102; single-device combination ICS-LABA, 506; inhaled short-acting beta-agonists [SABA], 475; oral SABA, 6; inhaled antimuscarinics [AMC], 477; single-device combination AMC-SABA, 127; xanthines, 50; leukotriene modifiers, 174; and mast cell stabilizers, 4). Reporting odds ratio and 95% confidence interval values for omalizumab compared with other asthma drugs and all drugs in AERS were 2.75 (2.39-316) and 1.09 (0.95-1.24), respectively. Omalizumab ranked second after ICS in the risk of arterial thrombotic events, followed by AMC, AMC-SABA, and ICS-LABA. Omalizumab is associated with higher than expected reporting of arterial thrombotic events in asthmatic patients. This hypothesis needs further testing in robust epidemiological studies.

  20. Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City, Philippine: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeninah Christia D. Borbon

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The research study on Viability of Event Management Business in Batangas City: Basis for Business Operation Initiatives aimed to assess the viability of this type of business using Thompson’s (2005 Dimension of Business Viability as its tool in order to create business operation initiatives. It provided a good framework for defining success factors in entrepreneurial operation initiatives in a specific business type – event management. This study utilized event organizers based in Batangas, a southern popular province, which also is a great popular destination for many types of events. Findings showed that the event management business in Batangas City is generally a personal event type of business whose year of operation ranges from one to three years, mostly link to church or reception venues and usually offers on the day coordination. In the assessment of its perceived viability, it was found out that this type of business is moderately viable in terms of market, technical, business model, management model, economic and financial, and exit strategy. Among all the dimensions tested, only market, management model, economic and financial, and exit strategy showed significant relationship with the profile variables of the event management business. From the enumerated problems encountered, those that got the highest rate were demanding clients, overbooking of reservation/exceeding number of guests and failure to meet spectators and/or competitors expectations. And, the recommended business operation initiatives were based on the weaknesses discovered using Thompson’s Dimension of Business Viability Model.

  1. An Investigation into Geography Teachers' Use of Current Events in Geography Classes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Degirmenci, Yavuz; Ilter, Ilhan

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to investigate the extent to which geography teachers use current events within the context of their geography instruction, their sources of information about current events, the methods and techniques they adopt while using current events in their teaching and the skills and values they expect their students to develop. The…

  2. Work stress and patient safety: observer-rated work stressors as predictors of characteristics of safety-related events reported by young nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfering, A; Semmer, N K; Grebner, S

    This study investigates the link between workplace stress and the 'non-singularity' of patient safety-related incidents in the hospital setting. Over a period of 2 working weeks 23 young nurses from 19 hospitals in Switzerland documented 314 daily stressful events using a self-observation method (pocket diaries); 62 events were related to patient safety. Familiarity of safety-related events and probability of recurrence, as indicators of non-singularity, were the dependent variables in multilevel regression analyses. Predictor variables were both situational (self-reported situational control, safety compliance) and chronic variables (job stressors such as time pressure, or concentration demands and job control). Chronic work characteristics were rated by trained observers. The most frequent safety-related stressful events included incomplete or incorrect documentation (40.3%), medication errors (near misses 21%), delays in delivery of patient care (9.7%), and violent patients (9.7%). Familiarity of events and probability of recurrence were significantly predicted by chronic job stressors and low job control in multilevel regression analyses. Job stressors and low job control were shown to be risk factors for patient safety. The results suggest that job redesign to enhance job control and decrease job stressors may be an important intervention to increase patient safety.

  3. Performance monitoring in the anterior cingulate is not all error related: expectancy deviation and the representation of action-outcome associations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, Flavio T P; McDonald, John J; Goodman, David

    2007-12-01

    Several converging lines of evidence suggest that the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is selectively involved in error detection or evaluation of poor performance. Here we challenge this notion by presenting event-related potential (ERP) evidence that the feedback-elicited error-related negativity, an ERP component attributed to the ACC, can be elicited by positive feedback when a person is expecting negative feedback and vice versa. These results suggest that performance monitoring in the ACC is not limited to error processing. We propose that the ACC acts as part of a more general performance-monitoring system that is activated by violations in expectancy. Further, we propose that the common observation of increased ACC activity elicited by negative events could be explained by an overoptimistic bias in generating expectations of performance. These results could shed light into neurobehavioral disorders, such as depression and mania, associated with alterations in performance monitoring and also in judgments of self-related events.

  4. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  5. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  6. Norwegian Oncologists' Expectations of Intensity-modulated Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muren, Ludvig P.; Mella, Olav; Hafslund, Rune; Dahl, Olav

    2002-01-01

    Although intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) may increase the therapeutic ratio of radiotherapy for a range of malignancies, only a few IMRT treatments have yet been performed in the Nordic countries. The scores derived from a national survey to assess Norwegian oncologists' expectations of IMRT are presented. A questionnaire was distributed to all consultants in oncology at Norwegian radiotherapy clinics. Summary scores of daily general radiotherapy workload (DGRTW), acquaintance with IMRT (AI) and expectations of IMRT (EI) were derived. Thirty-nine questionnaires (67%) were returned from a total of 58 oncologists. The oncologists' scores on the AI scale (mean score: 7.5 out of 21) were rather low. Their AI scores were found to be positively correlated with their DGRTW. Higher scores on the EI scale were documented (mean score: 6.2 out of 14): 15 oncologists (39%) rated IMRT as one of the three major contributors to potentially increased cancer survival. Oncologists treating patients with prostate, head and neck, gastrointestinal and CNS tumours had higher EI scores than the other oncologists (7.7 vs. 5.1; p=0.01). The Norwegian radiation oncologists' expectations of IMRT are high in terms of both the potential clinical benefit and the rate of implementation. This should encourage the radiotherapy communities to continue (or rapidly initiate) their efforts in providing the routines required for safe implementation of IMRT

  7. Conjunction Assessment Late-Notice High-Interest Event Investigation: Space Weather Aspects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pachura, D.; Hejduk, M. D.

    2016-01-01

    Late-notice events usually driven by large changes in primary (protected) object or secondary object state. Main parameter to represent size of state change is component position difference divided by associated standard deviation (epsilon divided by sigma) from covariance. Investigation determined actual frequency of large state changes, in both individual and combined states. Compared them to theoretically expected frequencies. Found that large changes ( (epsilon divided by sigma) is greater than 3) in individual object states occur much more frequently than theory dictates. Effect is less pronounced in radial components and in events with probability of collision (Pc) greater than 1 (sup -5) (1e-5). Found combined state matched much closer to theoretical expectation, especially for radial and cross-track. In-track is expected to be the most vulnerable to modeling errors, so not surprising that non-compliance largest in this component.

  8. The role of multisensory interplay in enabling temporal expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Felix; Michels, Lara E; Thiele, Carsten; Noesselt, Toemme

    2018-01-01

    Temporal regularities can guide our attention to focus on a particular moment in time and to be especially vigilant just then. Previous research provided evidence for the influence of temporal expectation on perceptual processing in unisensory auditory, visual, and tactile contexts. However, in real life we are often exposed to a complex and continuous stream of multisensory events. Here we tested - in a series of experiments - whether temporal expectations can enhance perception in multisensory contexts and whether this enhancement differs from enhancements in unisensory contexts. Our discrimination paradigm contained near-threshold targets (subject-specific 75% discrimination accuracy) embedded in a sequence of distractors. The likelihood of target occurrence (early or late) was manipulated block-wise. Furthermore, we tested whether spatial and modality-specific target uncertainty (i.e. predictable vs. unpredictable target position or modality) would affect temporal expectation (TE) measured with perceptual sensitivity (d ' ) and response times (RT). In all our experiments, hidden temporal regularities improved performance for expected multisensory targets. Moreover, multisensory performance was unaffected by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty, whereas unisensory TE effects on d ' but not RT were modulated by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty. Additionally, the size of the temporal expectation effect, i.e. the increase in perceptual sensitivity and decrease of RT, scaled linearly with the likelihood of expected targets. Finally, temporal expectation effects were unaffected by varying target position within the stream. Together, our results strongly suggest that participants quickly adapt to novel temporal contexts, that they benefit from multisensory (relative to unisensory) stimulation and that multisensory benefits are maximal if the stimulus-driven uncertainty is highest. We propose that enhanced informational content (i.e. multisensory

  9. Assessing the association between omalizumab and arteriothrombotic events through spontaneous adverse event reporting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali AK

    2012-05-01

    associated with higher than expected reporting of arterial thrombotic events in asthmatic patients. This hypothesis needs further testing in robust epidemiological studies.Keywords: omalizumab, postmarketing safety surveillance, adverse event reporting system, arterial thrombotic events

  10. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2016-05-25

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  11. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Zafar, Ammar; Alnuweiri, Hussein; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  12. CMS collision events at 7 TeV: candidate ZZ to 4e

    CERN Multimedia

    Taylor, L

    2011-01-01

    Real CMS proton-proton collisions events in which 4 high energy electrons (red towers) are observed. The event shows characteristics expected from the decay of a Higgs boson but is also consistent with background Standard Model physics processes. Prepared for EPS HEP 2011 Conference.

  13. Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

  14. Theta-band phase locking of orbitofrontal neurons during reward expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wingerden, M.; Vinck, M.; Lankelma, J.; Pennartz, C.M.A.

    2010-01-01

    The expectancy of a rewarding outcome following actions and cues is coded by a network of brain structures including the orbitofrontal cortex. Thus far, predicted reward was considered to be coded by time-averaged spike rates of neurons. However, besides firing rate, the precise timing of action

  15. Consumption growth and time-varying expected stock returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vinther Møller, Stig

    2008-01-01

    When the consumption growth rate is measured based upon fourth quarter data, it tracks predictable variation in future excess stock returns. Low fourth quarter consumption growth rates predict high future excess stock returns such that expected returns are high at business cycle troughs and low...... of each calendar year, and at possibly random times in between. The consumption growth rate measured based upon fourth quarter data is a much stronger predictive variable than benchmark predictive variables such as the dividend-price ratio, the term spread, and the default spread....

  16. Long Maturity Forward Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    The paper aims to improve the knowledge of the empirical properties of the long maturity region of the forward rate curve. Firstly, the theoretical negative correlation between the slope at the long end of the forward rate curve and the term structure variance is recovered empirically and found...... to be statistically significant. Secondly, the expectations hypothesis is analyzed for the long maturity region of the forward rate curve using "forward rate" regressions. The expectations hypothesis is numerically close to being accepted but is statistically rejected. The findings provide mixed support...... for the affine term structure model....

  17. Event management for large scale event-driven digital hardware spiking neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caron, Louis-Charles; D'Haene, Michiel; Mailhot, Frédéric; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Rouat, Jean

    2013-09-01

    The interest in brain-like computation has led to the design of a plethora of innovative neuromorphic systems. Individually, spiking neural networks (SNNs), event-driven simulation and digital hardware neuromorphic systems get a lot of attention. Despite the popularity of event-driven SNNs in software, very few digital hardware architectures are found. This is because existing hardware solutions for event management scale badly with the number of events. This paper introduces the structured heap queue, a pipelined digital hardware data structure, and demonstrates its suitability for event management. The structured heap queue scales gracefully with the number of events, allowing the efficient implementation of large scale digital hardware event-driven SNNs. The scaling is linear for memory, logarithmic for logic resources and constant for processing time. The use of the structured heap queue is demonstrated on a field-programmable gate array (FPGA) with an image segmentation experiment and a SNN of 65,536 neurons and 513,184 synapses. Events can be processed at the rate of 1 every 7 clock cycles and a 406×158 pixel image is segmented in 200 ms. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Development and validation of a Thai stressful life events rating scale for patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic methamphetamine abuse

    OpenAIRE

    Ek-uma Imkome; JintanaYunibhand; Waraporn Chaiyawat

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to psychometrically test a Thai Stressful Life Events Rating Scale (TSLERS). Factor analysis was done on data collected from 313 patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse in Thailand from April to May, 2015. Results identified the following problems impacting physical and mental health: social relationship and social concerns, money, family life, life security, and career. Evaluation of the psychometric scale properties demonstrated acceptable validity ...

  19. Disagreement in expectations and the credibility of monetary authorities in the Brazilian inflation targeting regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciano Vereda Oliveira

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on market expectations reported by the Central Bank of Brazil for the SELIC interest rate, the IPCA inflation, the exchange rate (BRL/USD and the growth rate of industrial production for four different forecasting horizons, this work analyzes the term structures of disagreement in expectations regarding the future values of these variables. It also investigates the driving factors of disagreement, paying special attention to the influence of monetary authorities’ credibility. An extensive regression analysis shows that the levels of the term structures of disagreement are negatively related to the output gap (although this result is not very robust; and that the levels of the term structures of disagreement in expectations about the IPCA inflation rate and the SELIC interest rate have a strong negative relationship with central bankers’ credibility; this relationship is positive in the case of the growth rate of industrial production.

  20. Centrality of event across cultures. Emotionally positive and negative events in Mexico, China, Greenland, and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

    During their lifetime, people experience both emotionally positive and negative events. The Centrality of Event Scale (CES; Berntsen and Rubin, 2006; Berntsen, Rubin and Siegler, 2011) measures the extent to which an event is central to someone’s identity and life story. An event becomes central...... disorder (PTSD) and depression symptoms: Participants with higher PTSD and depression scores reported that a traumatic or negative event was highly central to their identity and life story; and 3) A significant number of positive event occurred during participants’ adolescence and early adulthood, while...... an emotional event into our life story and our identity. Key findings: 1) Positive events are rated as more central to identity than negative events; 2) The extent to which highly traumatic and negative events become central to a person’s life story and identity varies as a function of post-traumatic stress...

  1. Instructor Reputation: An Expectancy Relationship Involving Student Ratings and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Raymond P.

    1979-01-01

    Instructor expressiveness and lecture content were combined with instructor reputation in a 2 X 2 X 2 factorial design to assess interaction effects. Results indicated that reputation interacted with expressiveness but not content, in which students rated positive, high-expressive instructors more favorably than negative, high-expressive…

  2. The Effect of Self-Referential Expectation on Emotional Face Processing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mel McKendrick

    Full Text Available The role of self-relevance has been somewhat neglected in static face processing paradigms but may be important in understanding how emotional faces impact on attention, cognition and affect. The aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of self-relevant primes on processing emotional composite faces. Sentence primes created an expectation of the emotion of the face before sad, happy, neutral or composite face photos were viewed. Eye movements were recorded and subsequent responses measured the cognitive and affective impact of the emotion expressed. Results indicated that primes did not guide attention, but impacted on judgments of valence intensity and self-esteem ratings. Negative self-relevant primes led to the most negative self-esteem ratings, although the effect of the prime was qualified by salient facial features. Self-relevant expectations about the emotion of a face and subsequent attention to a face that is congruent with these expectations strengthened the affective impact of viewing the face.

  3. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  4. Free-choice family learning experiences at informal astronomy observing events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenger, Matthew C.

    This qualitative study is an exploratory look at family experiences at night time telescope observing events, often called star parties. Four families participated in this study which looked at their expectations, experiences and agendas as well as the roles that identity and family culture played in the negotiation of meaning. Two families who had prior experience with attending star parties were recruited ahead of time and two other families who were first time visitors were recruited on-site at the observing event. Data were collected at two star parties. At each event, one experienced family was paired with an on-site family for the purposes of facilitating conversations about expectations and prior experiences. The results of this study showed that learning is constantly occurring among families, and that star parties and family culture were mediational means for making meaning. Expectations and agendas were found to affect the families' star party experiences and differences were observed between the expectations and experiences of families based on their prior experiences with star parties. These data also showed that family members are actively negotiating their individual and family identities. These families use their cultural history together to make sense of their star party experiences; however, the meaning that families were negotiating was often focused more on developing family and individual identity rather than science content. The families in this study used the star party context as a way to connect with each other, to make sense of their prior experiences, and as raw material for making sense of future experiences.

  5. Experimental study of divertor plasma-facing components damage under a combination of pulsed and quasi-stationary heat loads relevant to expected transient events at ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimov, N S; Podkovyrov, V L; Kovalenko, D V; Zhitlukhin, A M; Barsuk, V A; Mazul, I V; Giniyatulin, R N; Kuznetsov, V Ye; Riccardi, B; Loarte, A; Merola, M; Koidan, V S; Linke, J; Landman, I S; Pestchanyi, S E; Bazylev, B N

    2011-01-01

    This paper concerns the experimental study of damage of ITER divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) under a combination of pulsed plasma heat loads (representative of controlled ITER type I edge-localized modes (ELMs)) and quasi-stationary heat loads (representative of the high heat flux (HHF) thermal fatigue expected during ITER normal operations and slow transient events). The PFC's tungsten armor damage under pulsed plasma exposure was driven by (i) the melt layer motion, which leads to bridges formation between neighboring tiles and (ii) the W brittle failure giving rise to a stable crack pattern on the exposed surface. The crack width reaches a saturation value that does not exceed some tens of micrometers after several hundreds of ELM-like pulses. HHF thermal fatigue tests have shown (i) a peeling-off of the re-solidified material due to its brittle failure and (ii) a significant widening (up to 10 times) of the cracks and the formation of additional cracks.

  6. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  7. Expected hazards and hospital beds in host cities of the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elaine Silva Miranda

    Full Text Available Planning for mass gatherings involves health system preparedness based on an understanding of natural and technological hazards identified through prior risk assessment. We present the expected hazards reported by health administrators of the host cities for the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil and discuss the hazards considering minimal available public hospital beds in the 12 cities at the time of the event. Four different groups of respondents were interviewed: pharmaceutical service administrators and overall health administrators at both the municipal and hospital levels. The hospital bed occupancy rate was calculated, based on the Brazilian Health Informatics Department (DATASUS. The number of surplus beds was calculated using parameters from the literature regarding surge and mass casualty needs and number of unoccupied beds. In all groups, physical injuries ranked first, followed by emerging and endemic diseases. Baseline occupancy rates were high (95%CI: 0.93-2.19 in all 12 cities. Total shortage, considering all the cities, ranged from -47,670 (for surges to -60,569 beds (for mass casualties. The study can contribute to discussions on mass-gathering preparedness.

  8. 77 FR 17076 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Adverse Event...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-03-23

    ...,777 in FY2011. We expect this trend to continue and, in fact, increase due to continued industry...] Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Adverse Event Reporting... information associated with adverse event reporting and recordkeeping for dietary supplements as required by...

  9. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  10. Motivation and expectancy influences in placebo responding: the mediating role of attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aigner, Carrie; Svanum, Soren

    2014-12-01

    Drawing upon research in perception and motivation, the current study proposes a motivation-attention model of placebo in which more motivated persons pay greater attention to placebo-related stimuli, directly influencing placebo response. We manipulated both motivation to respond to placebo and expectations of placebo response in a 2 × 2 design. Participants (N = 152) evaluated a series of placebo pheromones (slightly scented water) of potential romantic dates and made desirability ratings. Consistent with hypotheses, more highly motivated participants demonstrated greater placebo responses, as evidenced by higher desirability ratings of the "pheromone" and greater variability among ratings, when compared to less motivated participants. Moreover, the relation between motivation and placebo response was mediated by attention. Contrary to expectations, we found no effect for expectancy. These findings highlight the importance of motivation and the mediating factor of attention in placebo and support goal-oriented models of placebo. © 2014 International Union of Psychological Science.

  11. From Particle Flow to Colour Flow in Top Events

    CERN Document Server

    Lofberg, Henrik Johan

    2013-01-01

    A deeper understanding of the underlying event in $t\\overline{t}$ pair production is expected to improve the current uncertainty on the measurements of the top quark mass. By selecting events with an electron, a muon and two b-tagged jets a high purity signal is obtained. The main properties of the underlying event are isolated and compared between data and different Pythia Monte Carlo Tunes. Discrepancies between the total number of charged particles for different models is observed. Furthermore a contribution of colour reconnection to the modeling of the average transverse momentum of the charged particles is identified.

  12. Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

    2016-04-01

    Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring

  13. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  14. Event-by-event mean $p_T$ fluctuations in pp and Pb-Pb collisions at the LHC

    CERN Document Server

    Abelev, Betty Bezverkhny; Adamova, Dagmar; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agostinelli, Andrea; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Nazeer; Ahmed, Ijaz; Ahn, Sang Un; Ahn, Sul-Ah; Aimo, Ilaria; Aiola, Salvatore; Ajaz, Muhammad; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anielski, Jonas; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Armesto Perez, Nestor; Arnaldi, Roberta; Aronsson, Tomas; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Awes, Terry; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Bach, Matthias Jakob; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baltasar Dos Santos Pedrosa, Fernando; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Baumann, Christoph Heinrich; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belyaev, Vladimir; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Berger, Martin Emanuel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blanco, Fernando; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Bogolyubskiy, Mikhail; Boehmer, Felix Valentin; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botje, Michiel; Botta, Elena; Boettger, Stefan; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Catanescu, Vasile Ioan; Cavicchioli, Costanza; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Chochula, Peter; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortese, Pietro; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dainese, Andrea; Dang, Ruina; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Kushal; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; Delagrange, Hugues; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; D'Erasmo, Ginevra; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; De Rooij, Raoul Stefan; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Liberto, Sergio; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Dobrowolski, Tadeusz Antoni; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Dorheim, Sverre; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Dutt Mazumder, Abhee Kanti; Hilden, Timo Eero; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Engel, Heiko; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdal, Hege Austrheim; Eschweiler, Dominic; Espagnon, Bruno; Esposito, Marco; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Falchieri, Davide; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Fehlker, Dominik; Feldkamp, Linus; Felea, Daniel; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigory; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Floratos, Emmanouil; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Garishvili, Irakli; Gerhard, Jochen; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghidini, Bruno; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grossiord, Jean-Yves; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Guilbaud, Maxime Rene Joseph; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gulkanyan, Hrant; Gumbo, Mervyn; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Khan, Kamal; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hanratty, Luke David; Hansen, Alexander; Harris, John William; Hartmann, Helvi; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Heide, Markus Ansgar; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hippolyte, Boris; Hladky, Jan; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Huang, Meidana; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Ilkiv, Iryna; Inaba, Motoi; Innocenti, Gian Michele; Ionita, Costin; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Jacholkowski, Adam Wlodzimierz; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jung, Hyungtaik; Jusko, Anton; Kadyshevskiy, Vladimir; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Beomkyu; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Mimae; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kohler, Markus Konrad; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Konevskikh, Artem; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Kox, Serge; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kral, Jiri; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krelina, Michal; Kretz, Matthias; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kucera, Vit; Kucheryaev, Yury; Kugathasan, Thanushan; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kulakov, Igor; Kumar, Jitendra; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kushpil, Svetlana; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Legrand, Iosif; Lehnert, Joerg Walter; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leoncino, Marco; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loggins, Vera Renee; Loginov, Vitaly; Lohner, Daniel; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lu, Xianguo; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Ma, Rongrong; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahapatra, Durga Prasad; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manceau, Loic Henri Antoine; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martashvili, Irakli; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martynov, Yevgen; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Massacrier, Laure Marie; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mlynarz, Jocelyn; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Morando, Maurizio; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Muller, Hans; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Nattrass, Christine; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Nilsen, Bjorn Steven; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Sahoo, Pragati; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pachr, Milos; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pajares Vales, Carlos; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Palmeri, Armando; Pant, Divyash; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Patalakha, Dmitry; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Paul, Biswarup; Pawlak, Tomasz Jan; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Pereira De Oliveira Filho, Elienos; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Pesci, Alessandro; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petran, Michal; Petris, Mariana; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Pohjoisaho, Esko Heikki Oskari; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Potukuchi, Baba; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Rauf, Aamer Wali; Razazi, Vahedeh; Read, Kenneth Francis; Real, Jean-Sebastien; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reicher, Martijn; Reidt, Felix; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Rettig, Felix Vincenz; Revol, Jean-Pierre; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Rivetti, Angelo; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Sharma, Rohni; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Romita, Rosa; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Salgado Lopez, Carlos Alberto; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sanchez Castro, Xitzel; Sanchez Rodriguez, Fernando Javier; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Santagati, Gianluca; Sarkar, Debojit; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Scharenberg, Rolf Paul; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schuster, Tim Robin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Segato, Gianfranco; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Seo, Jeewon; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shabratova, Galina; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Natasha; Sharma, Satish; Shigaki, Kenta; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Skjerdal, Kyrre; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Soegaard, Carsten; Soltz, Ron Ariel; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Srivastava, Brijesh Kumar; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stefanek, Grzegorz; Steinpreis, Matthew Donald; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Stolpovskiy, Mikhail; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Symons, Timothy; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Takahashi, Jun; Tangaro, Marco-Antonio; Tapia Takaki, Daniel Jesus; Tarantola Peloni, Attilio; Tarazona Martinez, Alfonso; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Vajzer, Michal; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Venaruzzo, Massimo; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Vyushin, Alexey; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wagner, Vladimir; Wang, Mengliang; Wang, Yifei; Watanabe, Daisuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilde, Martin Rudolf; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yaldo, Chris G; Yamaguchi, Yorito; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yang, Shiming; Yano, Satoshi; Yasnopolskiy, Stanislav; Yi, Jungyu; Yin, Zhongbao; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zach, Cenek; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, Fengchu; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zhu, Xiangrong; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zoccarato, Yannick Denis; Zyzak, Maksym

    2014-10-15

    Event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum of charged particles produced in pp collisions at √s = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV, and Pb–Pb collisions at √sNN = 2.76 TeV are studied as a function of the charged-particle multiplicity using the ALICE detector at the LHC. Non-statistical fluctuations are observed in all systems. The results in pp collisions show little dependence on collision energy. The Monte Carlo event generators PYTHIA and PHOJET are in qualitative agreement with the data. Peripheral Pb–Pb data exhibit a similar multiplicity dependence as that observed in pp. In central Pb–Pb, the results deviate from this trend, featuring a significant reduction of the fluctuation strength. The results in Pb–Pb are in qualitative agreement with previous measurements in Au–Au at lower collision energies and with expectations from models that incorporate collective phenomena.

  15. Foreshock occurrence rates before large earthquakes worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reasenberg, P.A.

    1999-01-01

    Global rates of foreshock occurrence involving shallow M ??? 6 and M ??? 7 mainshocks and M ??? 5 foreshocks were measured, using earthquakes listed in the Harvard CMT catalog for the period 1978-1996. These rates are similar to rates ones measured in previous worldwide and regional studies when they are normalized for the ranges of magnitude difference they each span. The observed worldwide rates were compared to a generic model of earthquake clustering, which is based on patterns of small and moderate aftershocks in California, and were found to exceed the California model by a factor of approximately 2. Significant differences in foreshock rate were found among subsets of earthquakes defined by their focal mechanism and tectonic region, with the rate before thrust events higher and the rate before strike-slip events lower than the worldwide average. Among the thrust events a large majority, composed of events located in shallow subduction zones, registered a high foreshock rate, while a minority, located in continental thrust belts, measured a low rate. These differences may explain why previous surveys have revealed low foreshock rates among thrust events in California (especially southern California), while the worldwide observations suggest the opposite: California, lacking an active subduction zone in most of its territory, and including a region of mountain-building thrusts in the south, reflects the low rate apparently typical for continental thrusts, while the worldwide observations, dominated by shallow subduction zone events, are foreshock-rich.

  16. Enhancing the Quality of Life through Cultural Events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liburd, Janne J.

    2008-01-01

    . The present research recognizes the articulated aims of the festival and investigates how a cultural event influences participants' quality of life (QOL). The study adopts a twofold approach to examine organizers' expectations as well as the impacts on participants' short-term subjective well being...

  17. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  18. A Generalized Approach to Model the Spectra and Radiation Dose Rate of Solar Particle Events on the Surface of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jingnan; Zeitlin, Cary; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; McDole, Thoren; Kühl, Patrick; Appel, Jan C.; Matthiä, Daniel; Krauss, Johannes; Köhler, Jan

    2018-01-01

    For future human missions to Mars, it is important to study the surface radiation environment during extreme and elevated conditions. In the long term, it is mainly galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) modulated by solar activity that contribute to the radiation on the surface of Mars, but intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events may induce acute health effects. Such events may enhance the radiation level significantly and should be detected as immediately as possible to prevent severe damage to humans and equipment. However, the energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is significantly different from that in deep space due to the influence of the Martian atmosphere. Depending on the intensity and shape of the original solar particle spectra, as well as particle types, the surface spectra may induce entirely different radiation effects. In order to give immediate and accurate alerts while avoiding unnecessary ones, it is important to model and well understand the atmospheric effect on the incoming SEPs, including both protons and helium ions. In this paper, we have developed a generalized approach to quickly model the surface response of any given incoming proton/helium ion spectra and have applied it to a set of historical large solar events, thus providing insights into the possible variety of surface radiation environments that may be induced during SEP events. Based on the statistical study of more than 30 significant solar events, we have obtained an empirical model for estimating the surface dose rate directly from the intensities of a power-law SEP spectra.

  19. Event-by-Event Continuous Respiratory Motion Correction for Dynamic PET Imaging.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yunhan; Chan, Chung; Ma, Tianyu; Liu, Yaqiang; Gallezot, Jean-Dominique; Naganawa, Mika; Kelada, Olivia J; Germino, Mary; Sinusas, Albert J; Carson, Richard E; Liu, Chi

    2016-07-01

    Existing respiratory motion-correction methods are applied only to static PET imaging. We have previously developed an event-by-event respiratory motion-correction method with correlations between internal organ motion and external respiratory signals (INTEX). This method is uniquely appropriate for dynamic imaging because it corrects motion for each time point. In this study, we applied INTEX to human dynamic PET studies with various tracers and investigated the impact on kinetic parameter estimation. The use of 3 tracers-a myocardial perfusion tracer, (82)Rb (n = 7); a pancreatic β-cell tracer, (18)F-FP(+)DTBZ (n = 4); and a tumor hypoxia tracer, (18)F-fluoromisonidazole ((18)F-FMISO) (n = 1)-was investigated in a study of 12 human subjects. Both rest and stress studies were performed for (82)Rb. The Anzai belt system was used to record respiratory motion. Three-dimensional internal organ motion in high temporal resolution was calculated by INTEX to guide event-by-event respiratory motion correction of target organs in each dynamic frame. Time-activity curves of regions of interest drawn based on end-expiration PET images were obtained. For (82)Rb studies, K1 was obtained with a 1-tissue model using a left-ventricle input function. Rest-stress myocardial blood flow (MBF) and coronary flow reserve (CFR) were determined. For (18)F-FP(+)DTBZ studies, the total volume of distribution was estimated with arterial input functions using the multilinear analysis 1 method. For the (18)F-FMISO study, the net uptake rate Ki was obtained with a 2-tissue irreversible model using a left-ventricle input function. All parameters were compared with the values derived without motion correction. With INTEX, K1 and MBF increased by 10% ± 12% and 15% ± 19%, respectively, for (82)Rb stress studies. CFR increased by 19% ± 21%. For studies with motion amplitudes greater than 8 mm (n = 3), K1, MBF, and CFR increased by 20% ± 12%, 30% ± 20%, and 34% ± 23%, respectively. For (82)Rb

  20. Event-by-event fluctuations of average transverse momentum in central Pb + Pb collisions at 158 GeV per nucleon

    CERN Document Server

    Appelshauser, H.; Bailey, S.J.; Barna, D.; Barnby, L.S.; Bartke, J.; Barton, R.A.; Betev, L.; Bialkowska, H.; Billmeier, A.; Blyth, C.O.; Bock, R.; Boimska, B.; Bormann, C.; Brady, F.P.; Brockmann, R.; Brun, R.; Buncic, P.; Caines, H.L.; Carr, L.D.; Cebra, D.A.; Cooper, G.E.; Cramer, J.G.; Cristinziani, M.; Csato, P.; Dunn, J.; Eckardt, V.; Eckhardt, F.; Ferguson, M.I.; Fischer, H.G.; Flierl, D.; Fodor, Z.; Foka, P.; Freund, P.; Friese, V.; Fuchs, M.; Gabler, F.; Gal, J.; Ganz, R.; Gazdzicki, M.; Geist, Walter M.; Gladysz, E.; Grebieszkow, J.; Gunther, J.; Harris, J.W.; Hegyi, S.; Henkel, T.; Hill, L.A.; Hummler, H.; Igo, G.; Irmscher, D.; Jacobs, P.; Jones, P.G.; Kadija, K.; Kolesnikov, V.I.; Kowalski, M.; Lasiuk, B.; Levai, P.; Malakhov, A.I.; Margetis, S.; Markert, C.; Melkumov, G.L.; Mock, A.; Molnar, J.; Nelson, John M.; Oldenburg, M.; Odyniec, G.; Palla, G.; Panagiotou, A.D.; Petridis, A.; Piper, A.; Porter, R.J.; Poskanzer, Arthur M.; Prindle, D.J.; Puhlhofer, F.; Reid, J.G.; Renfordt, R.; Retyk, W.; Ritter, H.G.; Rohrich, D.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Rudolph, H.; Rybicki, A.; Sammer, T.; Sandoval, A.; Sann, H.; Semenov, A.Yu.; Schafer, E.; Schmischke, D.; Schmitz, N.; Schonfelder, S.; Seyboth, P.; Seyerlein, J.; Sikler, F.; Skrzypczak, E.; Snellings, R.; Squier, G.T.A.; Stock, R.; Strobele, H.; Struck, Chr.; Susa, T.; Szentpetery, I.; Sziklai, J.; Toy, M.; Trainor, T.A.; Trentalange, S.; Ullrich, T.; Vassiliou, M.; Veres, G.; Vesztergombi, G.; Voloshin, S.; Vranic, D.; Wang, F.; Weerasundara, D.D.; Wenig, S.; Whitten, C.; Wienold, T.; Wood, L.; Xu, N.; Yates, T.A.; Zimanyi, J.; Zhu, X.Z.; Zybert, R.

    1999-01-01

    We present first data on event-by-event fluctuations in the average transverse momentum of charged particles produced in Pb+Pb collisions at the CERN SPS. This measurement provides previously unavailable information allowing sensitive tests of microscopic and thermodynamic collision models and to search for fluctuations expected to occur in the vicinity of the predicted QCD phase transition. We find that the observed variance of the event-by-event average transverse momentum is consistent with independent particle production modified by the known two-particle correlations due to quantum statistics and final state interactions and folded with the resolution of the NA49 apparatus. For two specific models of non-statistical fluctuations in transverse momentum limits are derived in terms of fluctuation amplitude. We show that a significant part of the parameter space for a model of isospin fluctuations predicted as a consequence of chiral symmetry restoration in

  1. Projected life expectancy of people with HIV according to timing of diagnosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Lodwick, Rebecca K; Smith, Colette J

    2012-01-01

    positive in 2010. The effect of altering the diagnosis rate was investigated. Results: Assuming a high rate of HIV diagnosis (median CD4 cell count at diagnosis, 432¿cells/µl), projected median age at death (life expectancy) was 75.0 years. This implies 7.0 years of life were lost on average due to HIV......Background and objectives: Effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) has contributed greatly toward survival for people with HIV, yet many remain undiagnosed until very late. Our aims were to estimate the life expectancy of an HIV-infected MSM living in a developed country with extensive access to ART...... and healthcare, and to assess the effect of late diagnosis on life expectancy. Methods: A stochastic computer simulation model of HIV infection and the effect of ART was used to estimate life expectancy and determine the distribution of potential lifetime outcomes of an MSM, aged 30 years, who becomes HIV...

  2. Rare Events and Conditional Events on Random Strings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mireille Régnier

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Some strings -the texts- are assumed to be randomly generated, according to a probability model that is either a Bernoulli model or a Markov model. A rare event is the over or under-representation of a word or a set of words. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, a single word is given. One studies the tail distribution of the number of its occurrences. Sharp large deviation estimates are derived. Second, one assumes that a given word is overrepresented. The distribution of a second word is studied; formulae for the expectation and the variance are derived. In both cases, the formulae are accurate and actually computable. These results have applications in computational biology, where a genome is viewed as a text.

  3. A Weakest Pre-Expectation Semantics for Mixed-Sign Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Kaminski, Benjamin Lucien; Katoen, Joost-Pieter

    2017-01-01

    We present a weakest-precondition-style calculus for reasoning about the expected values (pre-expectations) of \\emph{mixed-sign unbounded} random variables after execution of a probabilistic program. The semantics of a while-loop is well-defined as the limit of iteratively applying a functional to a zero-element just as in the traditional weakest pre-expectation calculus, even though a standard least fixed point argument is not applicable in this context. A striking feature of our semantics i...

  4. Managing unforeseen events in production scheduling and control

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arica, E.; Falster, Peter; Hvolby, H. H.

    2016-01-01

    initial plans unfeasible or obsolete during production execution. How to effectively handle the unscheduled events and take corrective actions still remains a central question to academics and practitioners. In this paper, we explore this issue through a review of the relevant literature and an in......The production planning and control process is performed within complex and dynamic organizations made up of customer expectations, equipment, materials, people, information, and technologies. Changes in both internal and external factors can create a variety of unforeseen events, which make...

  5. High rate of adverse events following circumcision of young male ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (94) refusing circumcision by the TK technique; 34 men were randomised to the FG group and 35 to the TK group, and 32 and 24 patients were circumcised by the FG and TK methods respectively, of whom 29 and 19 respectively attended the post-circumcision visit. All 12 adverse event sheets corresponded to the TK group ...

  6. Associations between Urban Sprawl and Life Expectancy in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shima Hamidi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  7. Associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi, Shima; Ewing, Reid; Tatalovich, Zaria; Grace, James B.; Berrigan, David

    2018-01-01

    In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  8. Associations between Urban Sprawl and Life Expectancy in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamidi, Shima; Ewing, Reid; Tatalovich, Zaria; Grace, James B; Berrigan, David

    2018-04-26

    In recent years, the United States has had a relatively poor performance with respect to life expectancy compared to the other developed nations. Urban sprawl is one of the potential causes of the high rate of mortality in the United States. This study investigated cross-sectional associations between sprawl and life expectancy for metropolitan counties in the United States in 2010. In this study, the measure of life expectancy in 2010 came from a recently released dataset of life expectancies by county. This study modeled average life expectancy with a structural equation model that included five mediators: annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per household, average body mass index, crime rate, and air quality index as mediators of sprawl, as well as percentage of smokers as a mediator of socioeconomic status. After controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, this study found that life expectancy was significantly higher in compact counties than in sprawling counties. Compactness affects mortality directly, but the causal mechanism is unclear. For example, it may be that sprawling areas have higher traffic speeds and longer emergency response times, lower quality and less accessible health care facilities, or less availability of healthy foods. Compactness affects mortality indirectly through vehicle miles traveled, which is a contributor to traffic fatalities, and through body mass index, which is a contributor to many chronic diseases. This study identified significant direct and indirect associations between urban sprawl and life expectancy. These findings support further research and practice aimed at identifying and implementing changes to urban planning designed to support health and healthy behaviors.

  9. Caesarean section rates and adverse neonatal outcomes after induction of labour versus expectant management in women with an unripe cervix : a secondary analysis of the HYPITAT and DIGITAT trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernardes, T. P.; Broekhuijsen, K.; Koopmans, C. M.; Boers, K. E.; van Wyk, L.; Tajik, P.; van Pampus, M. G.; Scherjon, S. A.; Mol, B. W.; Franssen, M. T.; Berg, van den P. P.; Groen, Henk

    Objective To evaluate caesarean section and adverse neonatal outcome rates after induction of labour or expectant management in women with an unripe cervix at or near term. Design Secondary analysis of data from two randomised clinical trials. Setting Data were collected in two nationwide Dutch

  10. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    -dimensional integrals required in the EM algorithm are estimated using MCMC sampling. The MCMC sampler requires simulation of sample paths from a continuous time Markov process, conditional on the beginning and ending states and the paths of the neighboring sites. An exact path sampling algorithm is developed......The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor......-dependent substitution models are analytically intractable and must be analyzed using either approximate or simulation-based methods. We describe statistical inference of neighbor-dependent models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCMC-EM) algorithm. In the MCMC-EM algorithm, the high...

  11. Troposphere - ionosphere interaction during tropospheric MCC events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Manzano, J.R.; Zossi Artigas, M.M. de; Filippi Manzano, A.N. de; Cosio Ragone, A.H. de

    1995-09-01

    The present paper describes the investigation of possible effects of the type of large meteorological events known as Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC) on the F-region of the ionosphere over Argentina. These warm-season weather systems of huge size are present in the United States (Maddox, 1980) and in South Americal (Velasco and Fritsch, 1987). Their extension can be as large as 1,300,000 Km 2 and they tend to move in different directions over the earth surface. It is expected that these meteorological events should leave its signature in the upper region of the atmosphere. 13 refs, 12 figs, 1 tab

  12. Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale Turns 20. INES Helps Authorities Rate Events and Communicate Their Significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verlini, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    Originally developed in the 1990s jointly by IAEA and Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA) and Member States experts, INES was last revised in 2008 to become a more versatile and informative tool. INES is now designed to address events associated with the transport, storage and use of radioactive material and radiation sources, whether they occur at a nuclear installation or not.

  13. Alcohol Primes, Expectancies, and the Working Self-Concept

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hicks, Joshua A.; Schlegel, Rebecca J.; Friedman, Ronald S.; McCarthy, Denis M.

    2016-01-01

    Previous research has shown that alcohol consumption can lead to momentary changes in the self-concept (e.g., Steele & Josephs, 1990). In two studies (n = 150), we examined whether the implicit activation of alcohol expectancies (i.e., sociability-related expectancies) would also lead to changes in self-perception. To test this idea, participants first completed a measure of sociability-related alcohol expectancies. In a subsequent laboratory session, participants were exposed to either alcohol-related primes (i.e., pictures or words associated with alcohol) or neutral primes. After the priming task, participants completed an ostensibly unrelated self-concept survey that contained words related to sociability (e.g., “outgoing”) and non-sociability related words (e.g., “clever”). For both studies, results revealed that sociability-related alcohol expectancies were positively associated with sociability-related self-concept ratings for participants exposed to alcohol primes, but not for participants exposed to the neutral primes. Implications for the role implicit self-concept activation may have on drinking behaviors are discussed. PMID:19769437

  14. What we expect is not always what we get: evidence for both the direction-of-change and the specific-stimulus hypotheses of auditory attentional capture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nöstl, Anatole; Marsh, John E; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2014-01-01

    Participants were requested to respond to a sequence of visual targets while listening to a well-known lullaby. One of the notes in the lullaby was occasionally exchanged with a pattern deviant. Experiment 1 found that deviants capture attention as a function of the pitch difference between the deviant and the replaced/expected tone. However, when the pitch difference between the expected tone and the deviant tone is held constant, a violation to the direction-of-pitch change across tones can also capture attention (Experiment 2). Moreover, in more complex auditory environments, wherein it is difficult to build a coherent neural model of the sound environment from which expectations are formed, deviations can capture attention but it appears to matter less whether this is a violation from a specific stimulus or a violation of the current direction-of-change (Experiment 3). The results support the expectation violation account of auditory distraction and suggest that there are at least two different expectations that can be violated: One appears to be bound to a specific stimulus and the other would seem to be bound to a more global cross-stimulus rule such as the direction-of-change based on a sequence of preceding sound events. Factors like base-rate probability of tones within the sound environment might become the driving mechanism of attentional capture--rather than violated expectations--in complex sound environments.

  15. Stress, fatigue, and sleep quality leading up to and following a stressful life event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Laethem, Michelle; Beckers, Debby G J; Dijksterhuis, Ap; Geurts, Sabine A E

    2017-10-01

    This study aims to examine (a) the time course of stress, fatigue, and sleep quality among PhD students awaiting a stressful event and (b) whether daily anticipation of this event influences day-level stress, fatigue, and sleep quality. Forty-four PhD students completed evening and morning questionnaires on eight days from 1 month before their dissertation defense until one month thereafter. Results showed increased stress leading up to the defense, while fatigue and sleep quality remained unchanged. Comparing the night before the defense with the night after, stress rapidly decreased, whereas fatigue and sleep quality increased. Following the defense, stress and sleep quality remained stable, whereas fatigue declined. Stress 1 month before the defense was higher than 1 month thereafter. Regarding day-level relations, stress was adversely affected by negative anticipation and favorably by positive outcome expectancy, whereas positive anticipation had no influence. Positive outcome expectancy was an important predictor of improved sleep quality. We conclude that stress may be elevated long before a stressful event takes place but that one can recover rather quickly from temporary stress. Positive outcome expectancy of a stressful event may be an important predictor of reduced day-level stress and improved day-level sleep quality leading up to a stressful event. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Šimpach

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

  17. CMS collision events (7 TeV): candidate ZZ to 2e+2mu

    CERN Multimedia

    Taylor, L

    2011-01-01

    Real CMS proton-proton collisions events in which 2 high energy electrons and two high energy muons are observed. The event shows characteristics expected from the decay of a Higgs boson but is also consistent with background Standard Model physics processes. Prepared for EPS HEP 2011 Conference.

  18. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deilkås, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Nylén, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-03-20

    In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, excluding psychiatric and care and rehabilitation. Reviews were done according to GTT methodology. Similar contexts for healthcare and similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics have inspired the Nordic countries to exchange experiences from measuring and monitoring quality and patient safety in healthcare. The co-operation has promoted the use of GTT to monitor national and local rates of AEs in hospital care. 10 986 medical records were reviewed in Norway and 19 141 medical records in Sweden. No significant difference between overall AE rates was found between the two countries. The rate was 13.0% (95% CI 11.7% to 14.3%) in Norway and 14.4% (95% CI 12.6% to 16.3%) in Sweden. There were significantly higher AE rates of surgical complications in Norwegian hospitals compared with Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of pressure ulcers, falls and 'other' AEs. Among more severe AEs, Norwegian hospitals had significantly higher rates of surgical complications than Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of postpartum AEs. The level of patient safety in acute care hospitals, as assessed by GTT, was essentially the same in both countries. The differences between the countries in the rates of several types of AEs provide new incentives for Norwegian and Swedish governing bodies to address patient safety issues. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please

  19. Cognitive Schemas in Placebo and Nocebo Responding: Role of Autobiographical Memories and Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartels, Danielle J P; van Laarhoven, Antoinette I M; Heijmans, Naomi; Hermans, Dirk; Debeer, Elise; van de Kerkhof, Peter C M; Evers, Andrea W M

    2017-03-01

    Placebo effects are presumed to be based on one's expectations and previous experience with regard to a specific treatment. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of the specificity and valence of memories and expectations with regard to itch in experimentally induced placebo and nocebo itch responses. It was expected that cognitive schemas with more general and more negative memories and expectations with regard to itch contribute to less placebo itch responding. Validated memory tasks (ie, the Autobiographical Memory Test and the Self-referential Endorsement and Recall Task) and expectation tasks (ie, Future Event Task and the Self-referential Endorsement and Recall Task) were modified for physical symptoms, including itch. Specificity and valence of memories and expectations were assessed prior to a placebo experiment in which expectations regarding electrical itch stimuli were induced in healthy participants. Participants who were more specific in their memories regarding itch and who had lesser negative itch-related expectations for the future were more likely to be placebo itch responders. There were no significant differences in effects between the nocebo responders and nonresponders. The adapted tasks for assessing cognitive (memory and expectations) schemas on itch seem promising in explaining interindividual differences in placebo itch responding. Future research should investigate whether similar mechanisms apply to patients with chronic itch. This knowledge can be used for identifying patients who will benefit most from the placebo component of a treatment. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Next-to-next-leading order correction to 3-jet rate and event-shape ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    portunity to test QCD by measuring the energy dependence of different ... event shape data was not satisfactory largely due to the scale uncertainty of the pertur- .... )3 d ¯C dy. + O. ( α4 s. ) . (5). Here the event-shape distribution is normalized to the ..... [1] A Gehrmann-De Ridder, T Gehrmann, E W N Glover and G Heinrich, J.

  1. Expectation values of the e+Li system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2004-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + Li are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1200 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + Li energy was -7.532 895 5 hartree which has a binding energy of 0.002 482 hartree against dissociation into Ps+Li + . The 2γ annihilation rate for the spin singlet state was 6.996x10 9 s -1 . The annihilation rate for the triplet state, taking into account core annihilation and the 3γ decay, was 9.36x10 6 s -1

  2. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  3. Classification of radiation-hazardous objects by the ecological risk rate, based on the concept of the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetrov, V.A.

    2003-01-01

    The principal categories of the radiation-hazardous objects (RHO) (nuclear fuel cycle plants (NFC including NPP); ships with nuclear engine units and appropriate service facilities; units related with nuclear weapons (design, manufacture, storage, etc.); contaminated territories in the result nuclear accidents and nuclear facilities tests; civil enterprises using the radioactive sources) with real accident risk from radioactive substances (RS) release into environment are considered. For assessment of the ecological risk rate from RHO the International Nuclear Event Scale implemented by IAEA for NPP use is suggested. By opinion of the specialists the INES criteria could be used for radiation events assessment to other RHO that gives possibility for RHO arrangement by the potential hazard rate for environment in the case of accident. For RHO qualitative classification the main parameters assessment influencing on radioactive release risk (amount (total activity) of radioactive substances; possibility of chain reaction development; strength of technological parameters, etc.) was suggested. On the base of the INES all above-listed RHO kinds in the case of accident could be conditionally separated into three categories: 1. most radiation dangerous objects, on which could be severe and serious radiation accidents (corresponding to 4-7 INES levels); 2. RHO on which there is risk for accidents accompanying with RS release (accidents up to 4 INES level). 3. RHO without practical possibility for event (incidents - not higher 3 INES level). Introduction of suggested classification gives possibility for RHO safety control requirements rationalizing to radiation monitoring purposes for both RHO and the local systems

  4. Therapeutic potential and adverse events of everolimus for treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma – systematic review and meta-analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamanaka, Kenya; Petrulionis, Marius; Lin, Shibo; Gao, Chao; Galli, Uwe; Richter, Susanne; Winkler, Susanne; Houben, Philipp; Schultze, Daniel; Hatano, Etsuro; Schemmer, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Everolimus is an orally administrated mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) inhibitor. Several large-scale randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the survival benefits of everolimus at the dose of 10 mg/day for solid cancers. Furthermore, mTOR-inhibitor-based immunosuppression is associated with survival benefits for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who have received liver transplantation. However, a low rate of tumor reduction and some adverse events have been pointed out. This review summarizes the antitumor effects and adverse events of everolimus and evaluates its possible application in advanced HCC. For the meta-analysis of adverse events, we used the RCTs for solid cancers. The odds ratios of adverse events were calculated using the Peto method. Manypreclinical studies demonstrated that everolimus had antitumor effects such as antiproliferation and antiangiogenesis. However, some differences in the effects were observed among in vivo animal studies for HCC treatment. Meanwhile, clinical studies demonstrated that the response rate of single-agent everolimus was low, though survival benefits could be expected. The meta-analysis revealed the odds ratios (95% confidence interval [CI]) of stomatitis: 5.42 [4.31–6.73], hyperglycemia: 3.22 [2.37–4.39], anemia: 3.34 [2.37–4.67], pneumonitis: 6.02 [3.95–9.16], aspartate aminotransferase levels: 2.22 [1.37–3.62], and serum alanine aminotransferase levels: 2.94 [1.72–5.02], respectively. Everolimus at the dose of 10 mg/day significantly increased the risk of the adverse events. In order to enable its application to the standard conventional therapies of HCC, further studies are required to enhance the antitumor effects and manage the adverse events of everolimus

  5. Accuracy assessment of high-rate GPS measurements for seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elosegui, P.; Davis, J. L.; Ekström, G.

    2007-12-01

    Analysis of GPS measurements with a controlled laboratory system, built to simulate the ground motions caused by tectonic earthquakes and other transient geophysical signals such as glacial earthquakes, enables us to assess the technique of high-rate GPS. The root-mean-square (rms) position error of this system when undergoing realistic simulated seismic motions is 0.05~mm, with maximum position errors of 0.1~mm, thus providing "ground truth" GPS displacements. We have acquired an extensive set of high-rate GPS measurements while inducing seismic motions on a GPS antenna mounted on this system with a temporal spectrum similar to real seismic events. We found that, for a particular 15-min-long test event, the rms error of the 1-Hz GPS position estimates was 2.5~mm, with maximum position errors of 10~mm, and the error spectrum of the GPS estimates was approximately flicker noise. These results may however represent a best-case scenario since they were obtained over a short (~10~m) baseline, thereby greatly mitigating baseline-dependent errors, and when the number and distribution of satellites on the sky was good. For example, we have determined that the rms error can increase by a factor of 2--3 as the GPS constellation changes throughout the day, with an average value of 3.5~mm for eight identical, hourly-spaced, consecutive test events. The rms error also increases with increasing baseline, as one would expect, with an average rms error for a ~1400~km baseline of 9~mm. We will present an assessment of the accuracy of high-rate GPS based on these measurements, discuss the implications of this study for seismology, and describe new applications in glaciology.

  6. QCD effects on the event structure in leptoproduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, M.; Sjoestrand, T.

    1988-01-01

    Perturbative QCD corrections to leptoproduction events can be introduced either in the form of matrix elements or of parton showers. Each of these approaches has its advantages and disadvantages, making a comparison of the two interesting. At present energies, both methods can be made to agree reasonably well with data, whereas differences appear at higher energies. The influence of these QCD effects on the expected event structure at ep colliders, HERA in particular, is investigated in detail. This includes multiplicity and momentum distributions transverse momentum flow and correlations, as well as jet properties. (orig.)

  7. Trust-based prayer expectancies and health among older Mexican Americans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Neal; Hayward, R David

    2014-04-01

    This study assesses the health-related effects of trust-based prayer expectancies, which reflect the belief that God answers prayers at the right time and in the best way. The following relationships are evaluated in our conceptual model: (1) older Mexican Americans who attend worship services more often tend to develop a closer relationship with God; (2) people who feel close to God will be more likely to develop trust-based prayer expectancies; (3) people who endorse trust-based prayer expectancies will have greater feelings of self-esteem; and (4) higher self-esteem is associated with better self-rated health. The data support each of these relationships.

  8. Candidate Higgs to two-photon event in CMS rendered using SketchUp with various styles

    CERN Multimedia

    McCauley, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Event recorded with the CMS detector in 2012 at a proton-proton centre of mass energy of 8 TeV. The event shows characteristics expected from the decay of the SM Higgs boson to a pair of photons (large green towers). The event could also be due to known standard model background processes.

  9. Discrete emotions and persuasion: the role of emotion-induced expectancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeSteno, David; Petty, Richard E; Rucker, Derek D; Wegener, Duane T; Braverman, Julia

    2004-01-01

    The authors argue that specific emotions can alter the persuasive impact of messages as a function of the emotional framing of persuasive appeals. Because specific emotions inflate expectancies for events possessing matching emotional overtones (D. DeSteno, R. E. Petty, D. T. Wegener, & D. D. Rucker, 2000), the authors predicted that attempts at persuasion would be more successful when messages were framed with emotional overtones matching the emotional state of the receiver and that these changes would be mediated by emotion-induced biases involving expectancies attached to arguments contained in the messages. Two studies manipulating discrete negative emotional states and message frames (i.e., sadness and anger) confirmed these predictions. The functioning of this emotion-matching bias in parallel with emotion-induced processing differences and the limitations of a valence-based approach to the study of attitude change are also considered.

  10. Safety aspects of protease inhibitors for chronic hepatitis C: adverse events and drug-to-drug interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosângela Teixeira

    Full Text Available The standard of care therapy of chronic hepatitis C with the combination of pegylated interferon and ribavirin for 24 or 48 weeks was a remarkable accomplishment of the past decade. However, sustained virological responses rates of about 80% (genotypes 2-3 and 50% (geno 3 type 1 were not satisfactory especially for patients infected with genotype 1. Important advances in the biology of HCV have made possible the development of the direct-acting antiviral agents boceprevir and telaprevir with substantial increase in the rates of sustained virological response with shorter duration of therapy for a large number of patients. However, the complexity of triple therapy is higher and several new side effects are expected suggesting greater expertise in the patient management. Anemia and disgeusia are frequent with boceprevir while cutaneous rash, ranging from mild to severe, is expected with telaprevir. Higher risk of drug-drug interactions demand further clinical consideration of the previous well-known adverse events of pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Identification and prompt management of these potential new problems with boceprevir and telaprevir are crucial in clinical practice for optimizing treatment and assuring safety outcomes to HCV-genotype 1 patients.

  11. Safety aspects of protease inhibitors for chronic hepatitis C: adverse events and drug-to-drug interactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosângela Teixeira

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The standard of care therapy of chronic hepatitis C with the combination of pegylated interferon and ribavirin for 24 or 48 weeks was a remarkable accomplishment of the past decade. However, sustained virological responses rates of about 80% (genotypes 2-3 and 50% (geno 3 type 1 were not satisfactory especially for patients infected with genotype 1. Important advances in the biology of HCV have made possible the development of the direct-acting antiviral agents boceprevir and telaprevir with substantial increase in the rates of sustained virological response with shorter duration of therapy for a large number of patients. However, the complexity of triple therapy is higher and several new side effects are expected suggesting greater expertise in the patient management. Anemia and disgeusia are frequent with boceprevir while cutaneous rash, ranging from mild to severe, is expected with telaprevir. Higher risk of drug-drug interactions demand further clinical consideration of the previous well-known adverse events of pegylated interferon and ribavirin. Identification and prompt management of these potential new problems with boceprevir and telaprevir are crucial in clinical practice for optimizing treatment and assuring safety outcomes to HCV-genotype 1 patients.

  12. Estimation of Leak Rate from the Emergency Pump Well in L-Area Complex Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duncan, A

    2005-01-01

    This report provides an estimate of the leak rate from the emergency pump well in L-basin that is to be expected during an off-normal event. This estimate is based on expected shrinkage of the engineered grout (i.e., controlled low strength material) used to fill the emergency pump well and the header pipes that provide the dominant leak path from the basin to the lower levels of the L-Area Complex. The estimate will be used to provide input into the operating safety basis to ensure that the water level in the basin will remain above a certain minimum level. The minimum basin water level is specified to ensure adequate shielding for personnel and maintain the ''as low as reasonably achievable'' concept of radiological exposure. The need for the leak rate estimation is the existence of a gap between the fill material and the header pipes, which penetrate the basin wall and would be the primary leak path in the event of a breach in those pipes. The gap between the pipe and fill material was estimated based on a full scale demonstration pour that was performed and examined. Leak tests were performed on full scale pipes as a part of this examination. Leak rates were measured to be on the order of 0.01 gallons/minute for completely filled pipe (vertically positioned) and 0.25 gallons/minute for partially filled pipe (horizontally positioned). This measurement was for water at 16 feet head pressure and with minimal corrosion or biofilm present. The effect of the grout fill on the inside surface biofilm of the pipes is the subject of a previous memorandum

  13. An Expectancy Theory Motivation Approach to Peer Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Barry A.; Cox, Pamela L.; Maher, Larry E.

    2008-01-01

    Group projects are an important component of higher education, and the use of peer assessment of students' individual contributions to group projects has increased. The researchers employed an expectancy theory approach and an experimental design in a field setting to investigate conditions that influence students' motivation to rate their peers'…

  14. Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

    2010-08-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

  15. The Generation of a Stochastic Flood Event Catalogue for Continental USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, N.; Wing, O.; Smith, A.; Sampson, C. C.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.

    2017-12-01

    Recent advances in the acquisition of spatiotemporal environmental data and improvements in computational capabilities has enabled the generation of large scale, even global, flood hazard layers which serve as a critical decision-making tool for a range of end users. However, these datasets are designed to indicate only the probability and depth of inundation at a given location and are unable to describe the likelihood of concurrent flooding across multiple sites.Recent research has highlighted that although the estimation of large, widespread flood events is of great value to flood mitigation and insurance industries, to date it has been difficult to deal with this spatial dependence structure in flood risk over relatively large scales. Many existing approaches have been restricted to empirical estimates of risk based on historic events, limiting their capability of assessing risk over the full range of plausible scenarios. Therefore, this research utilises a recently developed model-based approach to describe the multisite joint distribution of extreme river flows across continental USA river gauges. Given an extreme event at a site, the model characterises the likelihood neighbouring sites are also impacted. This information is used to simulate an ensemble of plausible synthetic extreme event footprints from which flood depths are extracted from an existing global flood hazard catalogue. Expected economic losses are then estimated by overlaying flood depths with national datasets defining asset locations, characteristics and depth damage functions. The ability of this approach to quantify probabilistic economic risk and rare threshold exceeding events is expected to be of value to those interested in the flood mitigation and insurance sectors.This work describes the methodological steps taken to create the flood loss catalogue over a national scale; highlights the uncertainty in the expected annual economic vulnerability within the USA from extreme river flows

  16. Rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events among hospitalized children following implementation of a resident handoff bundle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starmer, Amy J; Sectish, Theodore C; Simon, Dennis W; Keohane, Carol; McSweeney, Maireade E; Chung, Erica Y; Yoon, Catherine S; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Wassner, Ari J; Harper, Marvin B; Landrigan, Christopher P

    2013-12-04

    Handoff miscommunications are a leading cause of medical errors. Studies comprehensively assessing handoff improvement programs are lacking. To determine whether introduction of a multifaceted handoff program was associated with reduced rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events, fewer omissions of key data in written handoffs, improved verbal handoffs, and changes in resident-physician workflow. Prospective intervention study of 1255 patient admissions (642 before and 613 after the intervention) involving 84 resident physicians (42 before and 42 after the intervention) from July-September 2009 and November 2009-January 2010 on 2 inpatient units at Boston Children's Hospital. Resident handoff bundle, consisting of standardized communication and handoff training, a verbal mnemonic, and a new team handoff structure. On one unit, a computerized handoff tool linked to the electronic medical record was introduced. The primary outcomes were the rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events measured by daily systematic surveillance. The secondary outcomes were omissions in the printed handoff document and resident time-motion activity. Medical errors decreased from 33.8 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 27.3-40.3) to 18.3 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 14.7-21.9; P < .001), and preventable adverse events decreased from 3.3 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 1.7-4.8) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.51-2.4) per 100 admissions (P = .04) following the intervention. There were fewer omissions of key handoff elements on printed handoff documents, especially on the unit that received the computerized handoff tool (significant reductions of omissions in 11 of 14 categories with computerized tool; significant reductions in 2 of 14 categories without computerized tool). Physicians spent a greater percentage of time in a 24-hour period at the patient bedside after the intervention (8.3%; 95% CI 7.1%-9.8%) vs 10.6% (95% CI, 9.2%-12.2%; P = .03). The average duration of verbal

  17. Enriched encoding: reward motivation organizes cortical networks for hippocampal detection of unexpected events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murty, Vishnu P; Adcock, R Alison

    2014-08-01

    Learning how to obtain rewards requires learning about their contexts and likely causes. How do long-term memory mechanisms balance the need to represent potential determinants of reward outcomes with the computational burden of an over-inclusive memory? One solution would be to enhance memory for salient events that occur during reward anticipation, because all such events are potential determinants of reward. We tested whether reward motivation enhances encoding of salient events like expectancy violations. During functional magnetic resonance imaging, participants performed a reaction-time task in which goal-irrelevant expectancy violations were encountered during states of high- or low-reward motivation. Motivation amplified hippocampal activation to and declarative memory for expectancy violations. Connectivity of the ventral tegmental area (VTA) with medial prefrontal, ventrolateral prefrontal, and visual cortices preceded and predicted this increase in hippocampal sensitivity. These findings elucidate a novel mechanism whereby reward motivation can enhance hippocampus-dependent memory: anticipatory VTA-cortical-hippocampal interactions. Further, the findings integrate literatures on dopaminergic neuromodulation of prefrontal function and hippocampus-dependent memory. We conclude that during reward motivation, VTA modulation induces distributed neural changes that amplify hippocampal signals and records of expectancy violations to improve predictions-a potentially unique contribution of the hippocampus to reward learning. © The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Examination of the use of the expectation value of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The UK regulatory authorities have published guidance on the requirements for authorisation for the disposal of low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The guidance specifies an individual risk target for the post-closure period and requires developers to consider collective radiological impacts. Information on how risks and impacts should be calculated or assessed has not been published. The objective of this project was to identify a suitable approach for making judgements of acceptability in relation to a risk target. The project examined the basis for using the expectation value of risk and investigated what approach the Agency might adopt in judging the acceptability of a dose versus probability profile for a given facility. Regulatory criteria are often expressed as a single number representing a constraint, limit or target. However, calculations or measurements of quantities for comparison with these criteria commonly give rise to distributions rather than single values. The expectation value of a distribution, which is equivalent to the arithmetic average, is one means of summarising a distribution as a single value. The project included general consideration of the mathematical basis of the expectation value of a distribution, with specific reference to the calculation of the expectation value of risk. The disadvantages of using the expectation value were also examined in the project. These include its sensitivity to changes at the high-end of the distribution, the need for an arbitrary integration limit for distributions that cannot be integrated analytically and the fact that risk is calculated as a function of time for each of many sets of events. The concept of risk as a basis for regulatory decision-making is becoming more widespread, particularly in the European Union, as directives such as the Control of Major Accident Hazards become effective. Planning of industrial development and transport systems does take account of risks to

  19. Loss of preferred power events in German BWRs and PWRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisch, W.

    1984-01-01

    This chapter examines the variety of courses which the loss of auxiliary power case may take in different plants, depending on the initiation of the event, the switching to the alternate auxiliary power supply and the automatic start-up sequences of auxiliaries (e.g. feedwater pumps, condensate pumps) after a short term interruption of auxiliary power. Topics considered include main station transformer failure in a boiling water reactor (BWR), main plant features, event description, evaluation of the event, deviations from expected behavior, operator actions, a comparison with start-up tests and other events, a comparison with postcalculations, and auxiliary transformer failure in a pressurized water reactor (PWR). Loss of preferred (or auxiliary) power events are standard design cases taken into account in the design of many reactor and plant systems

  20. Event-by-event fluctuations in mean pT and mean eT in √(sNN)=130 GeV Au+Au collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adcox, K.; El Chenawi, K.; Ghosh, T.K.; Greene, S.V.; Maguire, C.F.; Miller, T.E.; Rose, A.A.; Adler, S.S.; Aronson, S.H.; David, G.; Desmond, E.J.; Ewell, L.; Franz, A.; Guryn, W.; Haggerty, J.S.; Johnson, B.M.; Kistenev, E.; Kroon, P.J.; Mahon, J.; Makdisi, Y.I.

    2002-01-01

    Distributions of event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum and mean transverse energy near mid-rapidity have been measured in Au+Au collisions at √(s NN )=130 GeV at the Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. By comparing the distributions to what is expected for statistically independent particle emission, the magnitude of nonstatistical fluctuations in mean transverse momentum is determined to be consistent with zero. Also, no significant nonrandom fluctuations in mean transverse energy are observed. By constructing a fluctuation model with two event classes that preserve the mean and variance of the semi-inclusive p T or e T spectra, we exclude a region of fluctuations in √(s NN )=130 GeV Au+Au collisions

  1. Temporal compression in episodic memory for real-life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeunehomme, Olivier; Folville, Adrien; Stawarczyk, David; Van der Linden, Martial; D'Argembeau, Arnaud

    2018-07-01

    Remembering an event typically takes less time than experiencing it, suggesting that episodic memory represents past experience in a temporally compressed way. Little is known, however, about how the continuous flow of real-life events is summarised in memory. Here we investigated the nature and determinants of temporal compression by directly comparing memory contents with the objective timing of events as measured by a wearable camera. We found that episodic memories consist of a succession of moments of prior experience that represent events with varying compression rates, such that the density of retrieved information is modulated by goal processing and perceptual changes. Furthermore, the results showed that temporal compression rates remain relatively stable over one week and increase after a one-month delay, particularly for goal-related events. These data shed new light on temporal compression in episodic memory and suggest that compression rates are adaptively modulated to maintain current goal-relevant information.

  2. Probability model for worst case solar proton event fluences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xapsos, M.A.; Summers, G.P.; Barth, J.L.; Stassinopoulos, E.G.; Burke, E.A.

    1999-01-01

    The effects that solar proton events have on microelectronics and solar arrays are important considerations for spacecraft in geostationary orbits, polar orbits and on interplanetary missions. A predictive model of worst case solar proton event fluences is presented. It allows the expected worst case event fluence to be calculated for a given confidence level and for periods of time corresponding to space missions. The proton energy range is from >1 to >300 MeV, so that the model is useful for a variety of radiation effects applications. For each proton energy threshold, the maximum entropy principle is used to select the initial distribution of solar proton event fluences. This turns out to be a truncated power law, i.e., a power law for smaller event fluences that smoothly approaches zero at a maximum fluence. The strong agreement of the distribution with satellite data for the last three solar cycles indicates this description captures the essential features of a solar proton event fluence distribution. Extreme value theory is then applied to the initial distribution of events to obtain the model of worst case fluences

  3. The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

    2016-01-01

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

  4. CMS Higgs Search in 2011 and 2012 data: candidate photon-photon event (8 TeV)

    CERN Multimedia

    McCauley, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    Event recorded with the CMS detector in 2012 at a proton-proton centre of mass energy of 8 TeV. The event shows characteristics expected from the decay of the SM Higgs boson to a pair of photons (dashed yellow lines and green towers). The event could also be due to known standard model background processes.

  5. Age differences in autobiographical memories of negative events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boals, Adriel; Hayslip, Bert; Banks, Jonathan B

    2014-01-01

    This study examined whether older adults recollect autobiographical memories of negative events so as to minimize unpleasant emotions to a greater extent than do younger adults. A sample of healthy older adults (N = 126) and younger adults (N = 119) completed the Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire and a measure of PTSD symptoms in response to their most negative recalled event. Results supported the hypothesis that older adults rated their negative memories as having: 1) less of a sense of traveling back to the time the event occurred, 2) less associated visceral emotional reactions, 3) fewer associated negative emotions, and 4) fewer PTSD symptoms, all relative to younger adults. In addition, older adults exhibited higher ratings of belief in accuracy, higher ratings that the memory comes as a coherent story, and more associated positive emotions, again all relative to younger adults. After controlling for differences between the types of events younger and older adults reported and how long ago the event occurred, the above age differences remained statistically significant, though the effect sizes were attenuated in some cases. These results are consistent in their support for the positivity effect, and suggest that older adults modify their recollections of negative events in a manner that is emotionally adaptive for them.

  6. Interpreting the gamma statistic in phylogenetic diversification rate studies: a rate decrease does not necessarily indicate an early burst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fordyce, James A

    2010-07-23

    Phylogenetic hypotheses are increasingly being used to elucidate historical patterns of diversification rate-variation. Hypothesis testing is often conducted by comparing the observed vector of branching times to a null, pure-birth expectation. A popular method for inferring a decrease in speciation rate, which might suggest an early burst of diversification followed by a decrease in diversification rate is the gamma statistic. Using simulations under varying conditions, I examine the sensitivity of gamma to the distribution of the most recent branching times. Using an exploratory data analysis tool for lineages through time plots, tree deviation, I identified trees with a significant gamma statistic that do not appear to have the characteristic early accumulation of lineages consistent with an early, rapid rate of cladogenesis. I further investigated the sensitivity of the gamma statistic to recent diversification by examining the consequences of failing to simulate the full time interval following the most recent cladogenic event. The power of gamma to detect rate decrease at varying times was assessed for simulated trees with an initial high rate of diversification followed by a relatively low rate. The gamma statistic is extraordinarily sensitive to recent diversification rates, and does not necessarily detect early bursts of diversification. This was true for trees of various sizes and completeness of taxon sampling. The gamma statistic had greater power to detect recent diversification rate decreases compared to early bursts of diversification. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the gamma statistic as an indication of early, rapid diversification.

  7. Interpreting the gamma statistic in phylogenetic diversification rate studies: a rate decrease does not necessarily indicate an early burst.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James A Fordyce

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Phylogenetic hypotheses are increasingly being used to elucidate historical patterns of diversification rate-variation. Hypothesis testing is often conducted by comparing the observed vector of branching times to a null, pure-birth expectation. A popular method for inferring a decrease in speciation rate, which might suggest an early burst of diversification followed by a decrease in diversification rate is the gamma statistic. METHODOLOGY: Using simulations under varying conditions, I examine the sensitivity of gamma to the distribution of the most recent branching times. Using an exploratory data analysis tool for lineages through time plots, tree deviation, I identified trees with a significant gamma statistic that do not appear to have the characteristic early accumulation of lineages consistent with an early, rapid rate of cladogenesis. I further investigated the sensitivity of the gamma statistic to recent diversification by examining the consequences of failing to simulate the full time interval following the most recent cladogenic event. The power of gamma to detect rate decrease at varying times was assessed for simulated trees with an initial high rate of diversification followed by a relatively low rate. CONCLUSIONS: The gamma statistic is extraordinarily sensitive to recent diversification rates, and does not necessarily detect early bursts of diversification. This was true for trees of various sizes and completeness of taxon sampling. The gamma statistic had greater power to detect recent diversification rate decreases compared to early bursts of diversification. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the gamma statistic as an indication of early, rapid diversification.

  8. The Effect of Significant International Sports Events on Qualified Detoxification Treatment Outcome - Do Drop-Out Rates Change during UEFA European Championship?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Sofin

    Full Text Available No previous studies have evaluated the influence of significant international sports events on qualified detoxification treatment outcome. This prospective study examines the impact of the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship on inpatient treatment outcome of alcohol dependent patients. Hospital admission and premature drop-out rates of consecutively admitted alcohol dependent patients were determined before, during and immediately after the UEFA Championship in the year 2012. The admission rate of male patients increased significantly after the European Football Championship had ended whereas for female patients, no change in admission rate was found. Daily average discharge rate was calculated. No statistically relevant differences between the treatment days before, during and after the UEFA Championship was found for the discharges. During the tournament, exclusively male patients dropped out. Our results are consistent with an interpretation of an association between European Football Championship and detoxification treatment outcome. Further research to replicate and extend our findings is necessary.

  9. CMS DAQ Event Builder Based on Gigabit Ethernet

    CERN Document Server

    Bauer, G; Branson, J; Brett, A; Cano, E; Carboni, A; Ciganek, M; Cittolin, S; Erhan, S; Gigi, D; Glege, F; Gómez-Reino, Robert; Gulmini, M; Gutiérrez-Mlot, E; Gutleber, J; Jacobs, C; Kim, J C; Klute, M; Lipeles, E; Lopez-Perez, Juan Antonio; Maron, G; Meijers, F; Meschi, E; Moser, R; Murray, S; Oh, A; Orsini, L; Paus, C; Petrucci, A; Pieri, M; Pollet, L; Rácz, A; Sakulin, H; Sani, M; Schieferdecker, P; Schwick, C; Sumorok, K; Suzuki, I; Tsirigkas, D; Varela, J

    2007-01-01

    The CMS Data Acquisition System is designed to build and filter events originating from 476 detector data sources at a maximum trigger rate of 100 KHz. Different architectures and switch technologies have been evaluated to accomplish this purpose. Events will be built in two stages: the first stage will be a set of event builders called FED Builders. These will be based on Myrinet technology and will pre-assemble groups of about 8 data sources. The second stage will be a set of event builders called Readout Builders. These will perform the building of full events. A single Readout Builder will build events from 72 sources of 16 KB fragments at a rate of 12.5 KHz. In this paper we present the design of a Readout Builder based on TCP/IP over Gigabit Ethernet and the optimization that was required to achieve the design throughput. This optimization includes architecture of the Readout Builder, the setup of TCP/IP, and hardware selection.

  10. Groundwater recharge in desert playas: current rates and future effects of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, Owen P.; Sala, Osvaldo E.

    2018-01-01

    Our results from playas, which are topographic low areas situated in closed-catchments in drylands, indicated that projected climate change in Southwestern USA would have a net positive impact over runon and groundwater recharge beneath playas. Expected increased precipitation variability can cause up to a 300% increase in annual groundwater recharge beneath playas. This increase will overshadow the effect of decreased precipitation amount that could cause up to a 50% decrease in recharge beneath playas. These changes could have a significant impact on groundwater and carbon storage. These results are important given that groundwater resources in Southwestern USA continue to decline due to human consumption outpacing natural recharge of aquifers. Here, we report on groundwater recharge rates ranging from less than 1 mm to greater than 25 mm per year beneath desert playas. Playas located in larger and steeper catchments with finer-textured soils had the highest rates of recharge. Vegetation cover had no effect on recharge beneath playas. We modeled catchment runoff generation and found that the amount of runon a playa receives annually strongly correlated to the rate of groundwater recharge beneath that playa. Runon occurred during precipitation events larger than 20 mm and increased linearly with events above that threshold.

  11. Five-Year Safety Data for More than 55,000 Subjects following Breast Implantation: Comparison of Rare Adverse Event Rates with Silicone Implants versus National Norms and Saline Implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Navin; Picha, George J; Hardas, Bhushan; Schumacher, Andrew; Murphy, Diane K

    2017-10-01

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has required postapproval studies of silicone breast implants to evaluate the incidence of rare adverse events over 10 years after implantation. The Breast Implant Follow-Up Study is a large 10-year study (>1000 U.S. sites) evaluating long-term safety following primary augmentation, revision-augmentation, primary reconstruction, or revision-reconstruction with Natrelle round silicone breast implants compared with national norms and outcomes with saline implants. Targeted adverse events in subjects followed for 5 to 8 years included connective tissue diseases, neurologic diseases, cancer, and suicide. The safety population comprised 55,279 women (primary augmentation, n = 42,873; revision-augmentation, n = 6837; primary reconstruction, n = 4828; and revision-reconstruction, n = 741). No targeted adverse events occurred at significantly greater rates in silicone implant groups versus national norms across all indications. The standardized incidence rate (observed/national norm) for all indications combined was 1.4 for cervical/vulvar cancer, 0.8 for brain cancer, 0.3 for multiple sclerosis, and 0.1 for lupus/lupus-like syndrome. Silicone implants did not significantly increase the risk for any targeted adverse events compared with saline implants. The risk of death was similar with silicone versus saline implants across all indications. The suicide rate (10.6 events per 100,000 person-years) was not significantly higher than the national norm. No implant-related deaths occurred. Results from 5 to 8 years of follow-up for a large number of subjects confirmed the safety of Natrelle round silicone implants, with no increased risk of systemic disease or suicide versus national norms or saline implants. Therapeutic, II.

  12. Diary of events in a thoroughly unhaunted house.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houran, J; Lange, R

    1996-10-01

    Two subjects were asked to keep a 30-day journal of occurrences in their residence which are traditionally associated with hauntings and poltergeist-like phenomena. It was expected that the instructions would increase the frequency of perception of unusual or rarely occurring events in their residence, resulting in an attentional and "perceptual contagion effect." As expected, several features of the percipients' observations closely resembled those found in previously reported poltergeist episodes. Most importantly, the distribution of perceived occurrences closely resembled the predicted logistic curve, suggesting that hauntings involve a perceptual process where initial observations "infect" later ones.

  13. Reduced herbivory during simulated ENSO rainy events increases native herbaceous plants in semiarid Chile

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Manrique, R.; Gutierrez, J.R.; Holmgren, M.; Squeo, F.A.

    2007-01-01

    El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have profound consequences for the dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems. Since increased climate variability is expected to favour the invasive success of exotic species, we conducted a field experiment to study the effects that simulated rainy ENSO events in

  14. Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E

    2001-03-01

    In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency ({delta}CDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events

  15. Quantification of risk considering external events on the change of allowed outage time and the preventive maintenance during power operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kang, D. J.; Kim, K. Y.; Yang, J. E.

    2001-03-01

    In this study, for the major safety systems of Ulchin Units 3/4, we quantify the risk on the change of AOT and the PM during power operation to identify the effects on the results of external events PSA when nuclear power plant changes such as allowed outage time are requested. The systems for which the risks on the change of allowed outage time are quantified are High Pressure Safety Injection System (HPSIS), Containment Spray System (CSS), and Emergency Diesel Generator (EDG). The systems for which the risks on the PM during power operation are Low Pressure Safety Injection System (LPSIS), CSS, EDG, Essential Service Water System (ESWS). Following conclusions can be obtained through this study: 1)The increase of core damage frequency (ΔCDF) on the change of AOT and the conditional core damage probability (CCDP) on the on-line PM of each system are differently quantified according to the cases of considering only internal events or only external events. . 2)It is expected that the quantification of risk including internal and external events is advantageous for the licensee of NPP if the regulatory acceptance criteria for the technical specification changes are relatively set up. However, it is expected to be disadvantageous for the licensee if the acceptance criteria are absolutely set up. 3)It is expected that the conduction on the quantification of only a fire event is sufficient when the quantification of external events PSA model is required for the plant changes of Korea Standard NPPs. 4)It is expected that the quantification of the increase of core damage frequency and the incremental conditional core damage probability on technical specification changes are not needed if the quantification results of those considering only internal events are below regulatory acceptance criteria and the external events PSA results are not greatly affected by the system availability. However, it is expected that the quantification of risk considering external events on

  16. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  17. Expected neutrino fluence from short Gamma-Ray Burst 170817A and off-axis angle constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biehl, D.; Heinze, J.; Winter, W.

    2018-05-01

    We compute the expected neutrino fluence from SGRB 170817A, associated with the gravitational wave event GW 170817, directly based on Fermi observations in two scenarios: structured jet and off-axis (observed) top-hat jet. While the expected neutrino fluence for the structured jet case is very small, large off-axis angles imply high radiation densities in the jet, which can enhance the neutrino production efficiency. In the most optimistic allowed scenario, the neutrino fluence can reach only 10-4 of the sensitivity of the neutrino telescopes. We furthermore demonstrate that the fact that gamma-rays can escape limits the baryonic loading (energy in protons versus photons) and the off-axis angle for the internal shock scenario. In particular, for a baryonic loading of 10, the off-axis angle is more strongly constrained by the baryonic loading than by the time delay between the gravitational wave event and the onset of the gamma-ray emission.

  18. Genre of Music and Lyrical Content: Expectation Effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ballard, Mary E; Dodson, Alan R; Bazzini, Doris G

    1999-12-01

    This study was designed to examine whether people's expectations differ regarding how music lyrics affect individual behavior as a function of music genre. Because legislative attention and media publicity have been biased against certain types of popular music (i.e., heavy metal and rap), the authors expected that those genres of music would be viewed more negatively than other genres of popular music, for which there has been little or no negative publicity (i.e., pop and country). Participants (N = 160 college students) rated their perceptions of how the lyrical content of a song would affect listeners' behavior. The authors presented prosocial or antisocial lyrical passages to students (N = 160) under the guise of four musical genres (heavy metal, rap, pop, and country). Participants rated the potential impact of the lyrics on listeners' behavior. Findings indicated that lyrics labeled as heavy metal or rap were perceived as less likely to inspire prosocial behavior but not more likely to inspire antisocial behavior than the same lyrics labeled as country or pop.

  19. Aggression-related alcohol expectancies and barroom aggression among construction tradespeople.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zinkiewicz, Lucy; Smith, Georgia; Burn, Michele; Litherland, Steven; Wells, Samantha; Graham, Kathryn; Miller, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Few studies have investigated the relationship of barroom aggression with both general and barroom-specific alcohol expectancies. The present study investigated these associations in a rarely studied and high-risk population: construction tradespeople. Male construction tradespeople (n = 211) aged 18-35 years (M = 21.91, SD = 4.08 years) participated in a face-to-face questionnaire assessing general and barroom-specific alcohol expectancies and perpetration of physical and verbal barroom aggression as well as control variables, age, alcohol consumption and trait aggression. Sequential logistic regression analyses revealed that general alcohol-aggression expectancies of courage or dominance were not predictive of either verbal or physical barroom aggression after controlling for age, alcohol consumption and trait aggression. However, barroom-specific alcohol expectancies were associated with both verbal and physical barroom aggression, with positive associations found for expected hyper-emotionality and protective effects for expected cognitive impairment. In a population where rates of risky drinking and barroom aggression are high, specific expectations about the effects of drinking in bars may influence subsequent aggressive behaviour in bars. [Zinkiewicz L, Smith G, Burn M, Litherland S, Wells S, Graham K, Miller P. Aggression-related alcohol expectancies and barroom aggression among construction tradespeople. Drug Alcohol Rev 2016;35:549-556]. © 2015 Australasian Professional Society on Alcohol and other Drugs.

  20. Probabilistic Cross-Identification of Cosmic Events

    OpenAIRE

    Budavari, Tamas

    2011-01-01

    We discuss a novel approach to identifying cosmic events in separate and independent observations. In our focus are the true events, such as supernova explosions, that happen once, hence, whose measurements are not repeatable. Their classification and analysis have to make the best use of all the available data. Bayesian hypothesis testing is used to associate streams of events in space and time. Probabilities are assigned to the matches by studying their rates of occurrence. A case study of ...

  1. Preventing Medication Error Based on Knowledge Management Against Adverse Event

    OpenAIRE

    Hastuti, Apriyani Puji; Nursalam, Nursalam; Triharini, Mira

    2017-01-01

    Introductions: Medication error is one of many types of errors that could decrease the quality and safety of healthcare. Increasing number of adverse events (AE) reflects the number of medication errors. This study aimed to develop a model of medication error prevention based on knowledge management. This model is expected to improve knowledge and skill of nurses to prevent medication error which is characterized by the decrease of adverse events (AE). Methods: This study consisted of two sta...

  2. Analyzing time-ordered event data with missed observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dokter, Adriaan M; van Loon, E Emiel; Fokkema, Wimke; Lameris, Thomas K; Nolet, Bart A; van der Jeugd, Henk P

    2017-09-01

    A common problem with observational datasets is that not all events of interest may be detected. For example, observing animals in the wild can difficult when animals move, hide, or cannot be closely approached. We consider time series of events recorded in conditions where events are occasionally missed by observers or observational devices. These time series are not restricted to behavioral protocols, but can be any cyclic or recurring process where discrete outcomes are observed. Undetected events cause biased inferences on the process of interest, and statistical analyses are needed that can identify and correct the compromised detection processes. Missed observations in time series lead to observed time intervals between events at multiples of the true inter-event time, which conveys information on their detection probability. We derive the theoretical probability density function for observed intervals between events that includes a probability of missed detection. Methodology and software tools are provided for analysis of event data with potential observation bias and its removal. The methodology was applied to simulation data and a case study of defecation rate estimation in geese, which is commonly used to estimate their digestive throughput and energetic uptake, or to calculate goose usage of a feeding site from dropping density. Simulations indicate that at a moderate chance to miss arrival events ( p  = 0.3), uncorrected arrival intervals were biased upward by up to a factor 3, while parameter values corrected for missed observations were within 1% of their true simulated value. A field case study shows that not accounting for missed observations leads to substantial underestimates of the true defecation rate in geese, and spurious rate differences between sites, which are introduced by differences in observational conditions. These results show that the derived methodology can be used to effectively remove observational biases in time-ordered event

  3. Design basis II: Design for events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frisch, W.

    1982-01-01

    In a lecture of this title, it could be expected that all events which are a basis for system and component design are described. According to the title of the Course 'Instrumentation and Control of Nuclear Power Plants' emphasis is put on events originating within the plant (no consideration of external events such as air plane crash or earth-quake). The lecture is divided into the two parts 'Transients' and 'Loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs)'. Due to the complex interaction between systems and components during transients, the first part is the main part of the lecture, while the second part (LOCAs) is only a very brief description of emergency core cooling system functions and the typical course of a large and small LOCA event. The first part on anticipated transients with intact primary coolant system boundary (non-LOCA-transients) covers several aspects of the analysis, such as classification, brief system description, transient description, analysis of anticipated transients without scram (ATWS) and analytical methods. Due to the time restriction necessary within the course, only a small section of the entire area can be presented in this paper. (orig.)

  4. A High-Efficiency Uneven Cluster Deployment Algorithm Based on Network Layered for Event Coverage in UWSNs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanen Yu

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Most existing deployment algorithms for event coverage in underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs usually do not consider that network communication has non-uniform characteristics on three-dimensional underwater environments. Such deployment algorithms ignore that the nodes are distributed at different depths and have different probabilities for data acquisition, thereby leading to imbalances in the overall network energy consumption, decreasing the network performance, and resulting in poor and unreliable late network operation. Therefore, in this study, we proposed an uneven cluster deployment algorithm based network layered for event coverage. First, according to the energy consumption requirement of the communication load at different depths of the underwater network, we obtained the expected value of deployment nodes and the distribution density of each layer network after theoretical analysis and deduction. Afterward, the network is divided into multilayers based on uneven clusters, and the heterogeneous communication radius of nodes can improve the network connectivity rate. The recovery strategy is used to balance the energy consumption of nodes in the cluster and can efficiently reconstruct the network topology, which ensures that the network has a high network coverage and connectivity rate in a long period of data acquisition. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm improves network reliability and prolongs network lifetime by significantly reducing the blind movement of overall network nodes while maintaining a high network coverage and connectivity rate.

  5. Performance of the CMS Event Builder

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, J.M.; et al.

    2017-11-22

    The data acquisition system (DAQ) of the CMS experiment at the CERN Large Hadron Collider assembles events at a rate of 100 kHz, transporting event data at an aggregate throughput of to the high-level trigger farm. The DAQ architecture is based on state-of-the-art network technologies for the event building. For the data concentration, 10/40 Gbit/s Ethernet technologies are used together with a reduced TCP/IP protocol implemented in FPGA for a reliable transport between custom electronics and commercial computing hardware. A 56 Gbit/s Infiniband FDR Clos network has been chosen for the event builder. This paper presents the implementation and performance of the event-building system.

  6. What we expect is not always what we get: evidence for both the direction-of-change and the specific-stimulus hypotheses of auditory attentional capture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatole Nöstl

    Full Text Available Participants were requested to respond to a sequence of visual targets while listening to a well-known lullaby. One of the notes in the lullaby was occasionally exchanged with a pattern deviant. Experiment 1 found that deviants capture attention as a function of the pitch difference between the deviant and the replaced/expected tone. However, when the pitch difference between the expected tone and the deviant tone is held constant, a violation to the direction-of-pitch change across tones can also capture attention (Experiment 2. Moreover, in more complex auditory environments, wherein it is difficult to build a coherent neural model of the sound environment from which expectations are formed, deviations can capture attention but it appears to matter less whether this is a violation from a specific stimulus or a violation of the current direction-of-change (Experiment 3. The results support the expectation violation account of auditory distraction and suggest that there are at least two different expectations that can be violated: One appears to be bound to a specific stimulus and the other would seem to be bound to a more global cross-stimulus rule such as the direction-of-change based on a sequence of preceding sound events. Factors like base-rate probability of tones within the sound environment might become the driving mechanism of attentional capture--rather than violated expectations--in complex sound environments.

  7. Global Trends in Life Expectancy: A Club Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Lehmijoki

    2009-01-01

    Excluding the HIV prevalence rate from the threshold candidates re-allocates a considerable number of the members of the High AIDS club, indicating that incomes, literacy, and fertility are unable to predict AIDS completely. The similarity of economic and demographic conditions in the Low Literacy and High AIDS clubs, however, raises concerns about life expectancy convergence in the future.

  8. Development of Real-Time Measurement of Effective Dose for High Dose Rate Neutron Fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Braby, L. A.; Reece, W. D.; Hsu, W. H.

    2003-01-01

    Studies of the effects of low doses of ionizing radiation require sources of radiation which are well characterized in terms of the dose and the quality of the radiation. One of the best measures of the quality of neutron irradiation is the dose mean lineal energy. At very low dose rates this can be determined by measuring individual energy deposition events, and calculating the dose mean of the event size. However, at the dose rates that are normally required for biology experiments, the individual events can not be separated by radiation detectors. However, the total energy deposited in a specified time interval can be measured. This total energy has a random variation which depends on the size of the individual events, so the dose mean lineal energy can be calculated from the variance of repeated measurements of the energy deposited in a fixed time. We have developed a specialized charge integration circuit for the measurement of the charge produced in a small ion chamber in typical neutron irradiation experiments. We have also developed 4.3 mm diameter ion chambers with both tissue equivalent and carbon walls for the purpose of measuring dose mean lineal energy due to all radiations and due to all radiations except neutrons, respectively. By adjusting the gas pressure in the ion chamber, it can be made to simulate tissue volumes from a few nanometers to a few millimeters in diameter. The charge is integrated for 0.1 seconds, and the resulting pulse height is recorded by a multi channel analyzer. The system has been used in a variety of photon and neutron radiation fields, and measured values of dose and dose mean lineal energy are consistent with values extrapolated from measurements made by other techniques at much lower dose rates. It is expected that this technique will prove to be much more reliable than extrapolations from measurements made at low dose rates because these low dose rate exposures generally do not accurately reproduce the attenuation and

  9. Music and language perception: expectations, structural integration, and cognitive sequencing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tillmann, Barbara

    2012-10-01

    Music can be described as sequences of events that are structured in pitch and time. Studying music processing provides insight into how complex event sequences are learned, perceived, and represented by the brain. Given the temporal nature of sound, expectations, structural integration, and cognitive sequencing are central in music perception (i.e., which sounds are most likely to come next and at what moment should they occur?). This paper focuses on similarities in music and language cognition research, showing that music cognition research provides insight into the understanding of not only music processing but also language processing and the processing of other structured stimuli. The hypothesis of shared resources between music and language processing and of domain-general dynamic attention has motivated the development of research to test music as a means to stimulate sensory, cognitive, and motor processes. Copyright © 2012 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  10. The Advanced Photon Source event system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenkszus, F.R.; Laird, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Photon Source, like many other facilities, requires a means of transmitting timing information to distributed control system 1/0 controllers. The APS event system provides the means of distributing medium resolution/accuracy timing events throughout the facility. It consists of VME event generators and event receivers which are interconnected with 10OMbit/sec fiber optic links at distances of up to 650m in either a star or a daisy chain configuration. The systems event throughput rate is 1OMevents/sec with a peak-to-peak timing jitter down to lOOns depending on the source of the event. It is integrated into the EPICS-based A.PS control system through record and device support. Event generators broadcast timing events over fiber optic links to event receivers which are programmed to decode specific events. Event generators generate events in response to external inputs, from internal programmable event sequence RAMS, and from VME bus writes. The event receivers can be programmed to generate both pulse and set/reset level outputs to synchronize hardware, and to generate interrupts to initiate EPICS record processing. In addition, each event receiver contains a time stamp counter which is used to provide synchronized time stamps to EPICS records

  11. The Gillette Stadium Experience: A Retrospective Review of Mass Gathering Events From 2010 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Scott A; Maggin, Jeremy; Molloy, Michael S; Baker, Olesya; Sarin, Ritu; Kelleher, Michael; Mont, Kevin; Fajana, Adedeji; Goralnick, Eric

    2018-03-19

    Mass gathering events can substantially impact public safety. Analyzing patient presentation and transport rates at various mass gathering events can help inform staffing models and improve preparedness. A retrospective review of all patients seeking medical attention across a variety of event types at a single venue with a capacity of 68,756 from January 2010 through September 2015. We examined 232 events with a total of 8,260,349 attendees generating 8157 medical contacts. Rates were 10 presentations and 1.6 transports per 10,000 attendees with a non-significant trend towards increased rates in postseason National Football League games. Concerts had significantly higher rates of presentation and transport than all other event types. Presenting concern varied significantly by event type and gender, and transport rate increased predictably with age. For cold weather events, transport rates increased at colder temperatures. Overall, on-site physicians did not impact rates. At a single venue hosting a variety of events across a 6-year period, we demonstrated significant variations in presentation and transport rates. Weather, gender, event type, and age all play important roles. Our analysis, while representative only of our specific venue, may be useful in developing response plans and staffing models for similar mass gathering venues. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;page 1 of 7).

  12. Event characteristics that disrupt transport system’s balance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markou, Ioulia; Rodrigues, Filipe; Pereira, Francisco Camara

    2017-01-01

    The life of the city is often reflected in traffic patterns: popular sporting events draw crowds, holidays create disruptions, protests may result in road closures, etc. Decades of research on travel demand and network modelling already provide satisfying predictive tools. However, the main...... research focus has been on regular behaviour, such as peak/off-peak cycles, regular functioning of the infrastructure, and normal weather conditions. Consequently, non-recurrent events severely challenge such models. Under non-recurrent circumstances, the typically expected correlation structures (e...... of a methodology that correlates high taxi demand observations with popular events retrieved from Social Media platforms. Using NYC taxi trips public dataset, the average demand of the day was determined using kernel density analysis. Days that showed significant outliers compared to the average day were further...

  13. Colour expectations during object perception are associated with early and late modulations of electrophysiological activity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stojanoski, Bobby Boge; Niemeier, Matthias

    2015-10-01

    It is well known that visual expectation and attention modulate object perception. Yet, the mechanisms underlying these top-down influences are not completely understood. Event-related potentials (ERPs) indicate late contributions of expectations to object processing around the P2 or N2. This is true independent of whether people expect objects (vs. no objects) or specific shapes, hence when expectations pertain to complex visual features. However, object perception can also benefit from expecting colour information, which can facilitate figure/ground segregation. Studies on attention to colour show attention-sensitive modulations of the P1, but are limited to simple transient detection paradigms. The aim of the current study was to examine whether expecting simple features (colour information) during challenging object perception tasks produce early or late ERP modulations. We told participants to expect an object defined by predominantly black or white lines that were embedded in random arrays of distractor lines and then asked them to report the object's shape. Performance was better when colour expectations were met. ERPs revealed early and late phases of modulation. An early modulation at the P1/N1 transition arguably reflected earlier stages of object processing. Later modulations, at the P3, could be consistent with decisional processes. These results provide novel insights into feature-specific contributions of visual expectations to object perception.

  14. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  15. Irving Fisher and the UIP Puzzle: Meeting the Expectations a Century Later

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.A.J. Campbell-Pownall (Rachel); C.G. Koedijk (Kees); J.R. Lothian (James); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractWe review Irving Fisher’s seminal work on UIP and on the closely related equation linking interest rates and inflation. Like Fisher, we find that the failures of UIP are connected to individual episodes in which errors surrounding exchange rate expectations are persistent, but eventually

  16. Probing the Cosmic Gamma-Ray Burst Rate with Trigger Simulations of the Swift Burst Alert Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lien, Amy; Sakamoto, Takanori; Gehrels, Neil; Palmer, David M.; Barthelmy, Scott D.; Graziani, Carlo; Cannizzo, John K.

    2013-01-01

    The gamma-ray burst (GRB) rate is essential for revealing the connection between GRBs, supernovae and stellar evolution. Additionally, the GRB rate at high redshift provides a strong probe of star formation history in the early universe. While hundreds of GRBs are observed by Swift, it remains difficult to determine the intrinsic GRB rate due to the complex trigger algorithm of Swift. Current studies of the GRB rate usually approximate the Swift trigger algorithm by a single detection threshold. However, unlike the previously own GRB instruments, Swift has over 500 trigger criteria based on photon count rate and additional image threshold for localization. To investigate possible systematic biases and explore the intrinsic GRB properties, we develop a program that is capable of simulating all the rate trigger criteria and mimicking the image threshold. Our simulations show that adopting the complex trigger algorithm of Swift increases the detection rate of dim bursts. As a result, our simulations suggest bursts need to be dimmer than previously expected to avoid over-producing the number of detections and to match with Swift observations. Moreover, our results indicate that these dim bursts are more likely to be high redshift events than low-luminosity GRBs. This would imply an even higher cosmic GRB rate at large redshifts than previous expectations based on star-formation rate measurements, unless other factors, such as the luminosity evolution, are taken into account. The GRB rate from our best result gives a total number of 4568 +825 -1429 GRBs per year that are beamed toward us in the whole universe.

  17. Expectant Fathers’ Intuitive Parenting: Associations with Parent Characteristics and Postpartum Positive Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoppe-Sullivan, Sarah J.; Altenburger, Lauren E.; Settle, Theresa A.; Kamp Dush, Claire M.; Sullivan, Jason M.; Bower, Daniel J.

    2015-01-01

    This study examined expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior, its correlates, and its associations with fathers’ postpartum positive engagement. One hundred eighty-two expectant couples completed the Prenatal Lausanne Trilogue Play in the third trimester of pregnancy. Coders rated expectant fathers’ and mothers’ intuitive parenting behavior during this procedure. Expectant parents also completed surveys regarding their psychological and demographic characteristics. At 3 months postpartum, fathers completed time diaries that assessed the time they spent in developmentally appropriate positive engagement activities with their infants. Examination of correlates of expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior revealed that expectant fathers showed lower levels of these behaviors than expectant mothers, that intuitive parenting behavior was moderately positively associated for mothers and fathers, and that individual differences in expectant fathers’ intuitive parenting behavior were associated with parent demographic and psychological characteristics. In particular, expectant fathers showed greater intuitive parenting behavior when they had greater human capital and more progressive beliefs about parent roles, and when their partners had lower parenting self-efficacy. Findings also indicated that expectant fathers’ greater intuitive parenting behavior was predictive of fathers’ greater subsequent engagement in developmentally appropriate activities at 3 months postpartum, but only when expectant mothers demonstrated low levels of intuitive parenting behavior. PMID:25798492

  18. Maternal Expectations for Toddlers' Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Elizabeth J; Buss, Kristin A

    2010-07-03

    OBJECTIVE: Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children's behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers' responses to novel situations. DESIGN: A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers' behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. RESULTS: Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers' observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. CONCLUSIONS: When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers' behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers' expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers' fearful behavior.

  19. Maternal Expectations for Toddlers’ Reactions to Novelty: Relations of Maternal Internalizing Symptoms and Parenting Dimensions to Expectations and Accuracy of Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2010-01-01

    SYNOPSIS Objective Although maternal internalizing symptoms and parenting dimensions have been linked to reports and perceptions of children’s behavior, it remains relatively unknown whether these characteristics relate to expectations or the accuracy of expectations for toddlers’ responses to novel situations. Design A community sample of 117 mother-toddler dyads participated in a laboratory visit and questionnaire completion. At the laboratory, mothers were interviewed about their expectations for their toddlers’ behaviors in a variety of novel tasks; toddlers then participated in these activities, and trained coders scored their behaviors. Mothers completed questionnaires assessing demographics, depressive and worry symptoms, and parenting dimensions. Results Mothers who reported more worry expected their toddlers to display more fearful behavior during the laboratory tasks, but worry did not moderate how accurately maternal expectations predicted toddlers’ observed behavior. When also reporting a low level of authoritative-responsive parenting, maternal depressive symptoms moderated the association between maternal expectations and observed toddler behavior, such that, as depressive symptoms increased, maternal expectations related less strongly to toddler behavior. Conclusions When mothers were asked about their expectations for their toddlers’ behavior in the same novel situations from which experimenters observe this behavior, symptoms and parenting had minimal effect on the accuracy of mothers’ expectations. When in the context of low authoritative-responsive parenting, however, depressive symptoms related to less accurate predictions of their toddlers’ fearful behavior. PMID:21037974

  20. The effect of wealth-based anti-expectation behaviors on public cooperation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Le; Chen, Tong; You, Xinshang; Wang, Yongjie

    2018-03-01

    Wealth difference is a common sense in our society. It is unreasonable to assume people have the same capability to donate money to the common pool in public goods game (PGG). Individuals have behavioral expectation towards their neighbors. In this paper, we introduce wealth-based anti-expectation mechanism to explore cooperation. Through numerical simulation results, we are glad to find that the anti-expectation mechanism could stimulate cooperation when the positive effects are equal to or larger than the negative effects from anti-expectation behaviors. Based on this mechanism, we propose propagation mechanism which aims to propagate the positive effects from the poor to inspire more people to choose cooperative strategies. When individuals are tolerant towards defectors, The fraction of cooperators increases with the increment of propagation distance. Enlarging the distance is not wise when individuals are harsh towards defectors. Additionally, we find that the more tolerant towards defectors we are, the higher the cooperation rate is in general. Therefore in PGG, we could consider one's anti-expectation towards others' behaviors and improve cooperation by propagating the poor's anti-expectation effects.

  1. Water quality during storm events from two constructed wetlands receiving mine drainage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stark, L.R.; Brooks, R.P.; Williams, F.M.; Stevens, S.E. Jr.; Davis, L.K.

    1994-01-01

    Flow rates, pH, iron concentration, and manganese concentration were measured during several storm event at two constructed wetlands receiving mine water. During a substantial rain event, flow rates at both the wetland outlets surpassed flow rates at the wetland inlets, reflecting incident rainfall and differences in wetland area at the two sites. A significant positive correlation existed between local rainfall and outflow rates at the larger wetland, but not between rainfall and inflow rates. During storm events, outlet pH, relative to inlet pH, was slightly elevated at the larger wetland, and depressed at the smaller wetland. However, over the course of one year, rainfall was uncorrelated to outlet pH in the larger wetland. A substantial rain event at the smaller wetland resulted in a temporary elevation in outlet iron concentrations, with treatment efficiency reduced to near zero. However, in the larger wetland, outlet iron concentrations were not significantly affected by storm events. 14 refs., 7 figs., 4 tabs

  2. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  3. Hospital deaths and adverse events in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavão Ana Luiza B

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Adverse events are considered a major international problem related to the performance of health systems. Evaluating the occurrence of adverse events involves, as any other outcome measure, determining the extent to which the observed differences can be attributed to the patient's risk factors or to variations in the treatment process, and this in turn highlights the importance of measuring differences in the severity of the cases. The current study aims to evaluate the association between deaths and adverse events, adjusted according to patient risk factors. Methods The study is based on a random sample of 1103 patient charts from hospitalizations in the year 2003 in 3 teaching hospitals in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The methodology involved a retrospective review of patient charts in two stages - screening phase and evaluation phase. Logistic regression was used to evaluate the relationship between hospital deaths and adverse events. Results The overall mortality rate was 8.5%, while the rate related to the occurrence of an adverse event was 2.9% (32/1103 and that related to preventable adverse events was 2.3% (25/1103. Among the 94 deaths analyzed, 34% were related to cases involving adverse events, and 26.6% of deaths occurred in cases whose adverse events were considered preventable. The models tested showed good discriminatory capacity. The unadjusted odds ratio (OR 11.43 and the odds ratio adjusted for patient risk factors (OR 8.23 between death and preventable adverse event were high. Conclusions Despite discussions in the literature regarding the limitations of evaluating preventable adverse events based on peer review, the results presented here emphasize that adverse events are not only prevalent, but are associated with serious harm and even death. These results also highlight the importance of risk adjustment and multivariate models in the study of adverse events.

  4. Exploratory analysis of rainfall events in Coimbra, Portugal: variability of raindrop characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carvalho, S. C. P.; de Lima, M. I. P.; de Lima, J. L. M. P.

    2012-04-01

    Laser disdrometers can monitor efficiently rainfall characteristics at small temporal scales, providing data on rain intensity, raindrop diameter and fall speed, and raindrop counts over time. This type of data allows for the increased understanding of the rainfall structure at small time scales. Of particular interest for many hydrological applications is the characterization of the properties of extreme events, including the intra-event variability, which are affected by different factors (e.g. geographical location, rainfall generating mechanisms). These properties depend on the microphysical, dynamical and kinetic processes that interact to produce rain. In this study we explore rainfall data obtained during two years with a laser disdrometer installed in the city of Coimbra, in the centre region of mainland Portugal. The equipment was developed by Thies Clima. The data temporal resolution is one-minute. Descriptive statistics of time series of raindrop diameter (D), fall speed, kinetic energy, and rain rate were studied at the event scale; for different variables, the average, maximum, minimum, median, variance, standard deviation, quartile, coefficient of variation, skewness and kurtosis were determined. The empirical raindrop size distribution, N(D), was also calculated. Additionally, the parameterization of rainfall was attempted by investigating the applicability of different theoretical statistical distributions to fit the empirical data (e.g. exponential, gamma and lognormal distributions). As expected, preliminary results show that rainfall properties and structure vary with rainfall type and weather conditions over the year. Although only two years were investigated, already some insight into different rain events' structure was obtained.

  5. Event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum in 40, 80, and 158 AGeV/c Pb-Au collisions

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2073202; Appelshäuser, H; Belaga, V; Braun-Munzinger, P; Campagnolo, R; Castillo, A; Cherlin, A; Damjanovic, S; Dietel, T; Dietrich, L; Drees, A; Esumi, S; Filimonov, K; Fomenko, K; Fraenkel, Zeev; Garabatos, C; Glässel, P; Hering, G; Holeczek, J; Kushpil, V; Lenkeit, B C; Ludolphs, W; Maas, A; Marin, A; Milosevic, J; Milov, A; Miskowiec, D; Musa, L; Panebratsev, Yu A; Petchenova, O Yu; Petracek, V; Pfeiffer, A; Rak, J; Ravinovich, I; Rehak, P; Richter, M; Sako, H; Schmitz, W; Schükraft, J; Sedykh, S; Seipp, W; Sharma, A; Shimansky, S S; Slivova, J; Specht, H J; Stachel, J; Sumbera, M; Tilsner, H; Tserruya, Itzhak; Wessels, J P; Wienold, T; Windelband, B; Wurm, J P; Xie, W; Yurevich, S; Yurevich, V

    2003-01-01

    Measurements of event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum in Pb-Au collisions at 40, 80, and 158 AGeV/c are presented. A significant excess of mean $p_{T}$ fluctuations at midrapidity is observed over the expectation from statistically independent particle emission. The results are somewhat smaller than recent measurements at RHIC. A possible nonmonotonic behavior of the mean $p_{T}$ fluctuations as function of collision energy, which may have indicated that the system has passed the critical point of the QCD phase diagram in the range of $\\mu_{B}$ under investigation, has not been observed. The centrality dependence of mean $p_{T}$ fluctuations in Pb-Au is consistent with an extrapolation from $pp$ collisions assuming that the nonstatistical fluctuations scale with multiplicity. The results are compared to calculations by the RQMD and URQMD event generators.

  6. Student Expectations of Course Content Affect Faculty Evaluations in an Abnormal Psychology Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Frances A.

    1979-01-01

    Describes a study measuring how student expectations of an abnormal psychology course affect their rating of professors. Findings showed a significant impact, especially in relation to popularized topics. Recommends evaluative instruments separating course-related factors from instructor ratings. (CK)

  7. The Relationship between Science Indicator and Life Expectancy in Pioneer Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Moghadami

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ​Background and Objectives : The main objective of this study was to investigate the relationship between scientific productivity in the field of psychiatry and life expectancy in pioneer countries. Material and Methods : A rigorous search strategy was applied on Scopus database using psychiatry terms. The search results were narrowed to 2000-2012. No language limitation was applied. Life expectancy was extracted from World Bank database using Pearson correlation. Results : The search was led to 27516 articles. The US, England and Germany were identified as leading countries in producing the psychiatry articles, respectively. Pearson correlation test results indicated that there is a direct correlation between scientific products and life expectancy index. In other words, with the increase in producing scientific articles in psychiatry field, life expectancy rises as well. Conclusion : With increase in scientific productivity, life expectancy increases and mortality rate decreases. The results of this study can serve as a guiding document in the field of health and mental health. ​

  8. Social representation of events in world history: crosscultural consensus or Western discourse? How Turkish students view events in world history.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özer, Serap; Ergün, Gökçe

    2013-01-01

    The perceptions of historical events are considered to be an important cultural, political, and social psychological variable. Earlier studies have shown a crosscultural consensus on historical events that are considered to be important. It has been indicated that a strong Western-Christian European template dominates the view of which events are considered to be important events in history, by many samples across the world. It was the aim of this study to test this finding with a Turkish sample, which would represent some unique characteristics in that it is Muslim, comes from an Empire background, and has undergone a recent nation-building process. College students (n = 372) responded to a questionnaire that was utilized in seven other countries. It was shown that Turkish students were not Eurocentric as expected by the literature: They were highly sociocentric; they gave importance to events related to Turkish history. They were similar to their European counterparts in that war and violence were given primary importance when selecting events as important in history. However, they did not behave as predicted by earlier literature: They did not see Western European events as having a primary importance in history but gave at least equal importance to events that originated from Ottoman Empire roots. The results were discussed in terms of the unique cultural and historical variables that contribute to the identity and social psychological attributions of Turkish students. Further research should focus on not only which events are considered as important historical events but also the reasons behind these.

  9. First CNGS events detected by LVD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvi, M.

    2007-01-01

    The Cern Neutrino to Gran Sasso (CNGS) project aims to produce a high energy, wide band ν μ beam at Cern and send it towards the INFN Gran Sasso National Laboratory (LNGS), 732 km away. Its main goal is the observation of the ν τ appearance, through neutrino flavour oscillation. The beam started its operation in August 2006 for about 12 days: a total amount of 7.6 10 17 protons were delivered to the target. The LVD detector, installed in hall A of the LNGS and mainly dedicated to the study of supernova neutrinos, was fully operating during the whole CNGS running time. A total number of 569 events were detected in coincidence with the beam spill time. This is in good agreement with the expected number of events from Montecarlo simulations

  10. Validating a mass balance accounting approach to using 7Be measurements to estimate event-based erosion rates over an extended period at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.; Cogliandro, Vanessa; Callegari, Giovanni

    2016-07-01

    Use of the fallout radionuclides cesium-137 and excess lead-210 offers important advantages over traditional methods of quantifying erosion and soil redistribution rates. However, both radionuclides provide information on longer-term (i.e., 50-100 years) average rates of soil redistribution. Beryllium-7, with its half-life of 53 days, can provide a basis for documenting short-term soil redistribution and it has been successfully employed in several studies. However, the approach commonly used introduces several important constraints related to the timing and duration of the study period. A new approach proposed by the authors that overcomes these constraints has been successfully validated using an erosion plot experiment undertaken in southern Italy. Here, a further validation exercise undertaken in a small (1.38 ha) catchment is reported. The catchment was instrumented to measure event sediment yields and beryllium-7 measurements were employed to document the net soil loss for a series of 13 events that occurred between November 2013 and June 2015. In the absence of significant sediment storage within the catchment's ephemeral channel system and of a significant contribution from channel erosion to the measured sediment yield, the estimates of net soil loss for the individual events could be directly compared with the measured sediment yields to validate the former. The close agreement of the two sets of values is seen as successfully validating the use of beryllium-7 measurements and the new approach to obtain estimates of net soil loss for a sequence of individual events occurring over an extended period at the scale of a small catchment.

  11. Adverse cardiac events in out-patients initiating clozapine treatment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, C; Polcwiartek, C; Kragholm, K

    2018-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Using national Danish registers, we estimated rates of clozapine-associated cardiac adverse events. Rates of undiagnosed myocarditis were estimated by exploring causes of death after clozapine initiation. METHOD: Through nationwide health registers, we identified all out-patients initi......OBJECTIVE: Using national Danish registers, we estimated rates of clozapine-associated cardiac adverse events. Rates of undiagnosed myocarditis were estimated by exploring causes of death after clozapine initiation. METHOD: Through nationwide health registers, we identified all out...... the maximum rate of clozapine-associated fatal myocarditis to 0.28%. CONCLUSION: Cardiac adverse effects in Danish out-patients initiating clozapine treatment are extremely rare and these rates appear to be comparable to those observed for other antipsychotic drugs....

  12. Fourth-quarter Economic Growth and Time-varying Expected Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Stig V.; Rangvid, Jesper

    not predict returns. Fourth-quarter economic growth rates contain considerably more information about expected returns than standard variables used in the literature, are robust to the choice of macro variable, and work in-sample, out-of-sample, and in subsamples. To help explain these results, we show...... that economic growth and growth in consumer confidence are correlated during the fourth quarter, but not during the other quarters: When economic growth is low during the fourth quarter, confidence in the economy is also low such that investors require higher future returns. We discuss rational and behavioral...... reasons why fourth-quarter economic growth, growth in consumer confidence, and expected returns are related....

  13. Modeling event building architecture for the triggerless data acquisition system for PANDA experiment at the HESR facility at FAIR/GSI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korcyl, K; Konorov, I; Kühn, W; Schmitt, L

    2012-01-01

    A novel architecture is being proposed for the data acquisition and trigger system of the PANDA experiment at the HESR facility at FAIR/GSI. The experiment will run without hardware trigger signal using timestamps to correlate detector data from a given time window. The broad physics program in combination with the high rate of 2 * 10 7 interactions per second requires very selective filtering algorithms accessing information from many detectors. Therefore the effective filtering will happen later than in today's systems ie. after the event building. To assess that, the complete architecture will be built of two stages: the data concentrator stage providing event building and the rate reduction stage. For the former stage, which requires a throughput of 100 GB/s to perform event building, we propose two layers of ATCA crates filled with Compute Nodes - modules designed at IHEP and University of Giessen for trigger and data acquisition systems. Currently each board is equipped with 5 Virtex4 FX60 FPGAs and high bandwidth connectivity is provided by 8 front panel RocketIO ports and 12 backplane ports for the inter-module communication. We designed simplified models of the components of the architecture and using the SystemC library as support for the discrete event simulations, demonstrate the expected throughput of the full-size system. We also show impact of some architectural choices and key parameters on the architecture's performance.

  14. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  15. A Simbol-X Event Simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puccetti, S.; Giommi, P.; Fiore, F.

    2009-01-01

    The ASI Science Data Center (ASDC) has developed an X-ray event simulator to support users (and team members) in simulation of data taken with the two cameras on board the Simbol-X X-Ray Telescope. The Simbol-X simulator is very fast and flexible, compared to ray-tracing simulator. These properties make our simulator advantageous to support the user in planning proposals and comparing real data with the theoretical expectations and for a quick detection of unexpected features. We present here the simulator outline and a few examples of simulated data.

  16. A Simbol-X Event Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puccetti, S.; Fiore, F.; Giommi, P.

    2009-05-01

    The ASI Science Data Center (ASDC) has developed an X-ray event simulator to support users (and team members) in simulation of data taken with the two cameras on board the Simbol-X X-Ray Telescope. The Simbol-X simulator is very fast and flexible, compared to ray-tracing simulator. These properties make our simulator advantageous to support the user in planning proposals and comparing real data with the theoretical expectations and for a quick detection of unexpected features. We present here the simulator outline and a few examples of simulated data.

  17. Are global and regional improvements in life expectancy and in child, adult and senior survival slowing?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan J Hum

    Full Text Available Improvements in life expectancy have been considerable over the past hundred years. Forecasters have taken to applying historical trends under an assumption of continuing improvements in life expectancy in the future. A linear mixed effects model was used to estimate the trends in global and regional rates of improvements in life expectancy, child, adult, and senior survival, in 166 countries between 1950 and 2010. Global improvements in life expectancy, including both child and adult survival rates, decelerated significantly over the study period. Overall life expectancy gains were estimated to have declined from 5.9 to 4.0 months per year for a mean deceleration of -0.07 months/year2; annual child survival gains declined from 4.4 to 1.6 deaths averted per 1000 for a mean deceleration of -0.06 deaths/1000/year2; adult survival gains were estimated to decline from 4.8 to 3.7 deaths averted per 1000 per year for a mean deceleration of -0.08 deaths/1000/year2. Senior survival gains however increased from 2.4 to 4.2 deaths averted per 1000 per year for an acceleration of 0.03 deaths/1000/year2. Regional variation in the four measures was substantial. The rates of global improvements in life expectancy, child survival, and adult survival have declined since 1950 despite an increase in the rate of improvements among seniors. We postulate that low-cost innovation, related to the last half-century progress in health-primarily devoted to children and middle age, is reaping diminishing returns on its investments. Trends are uneven across regions and measures, which may be due in part to the state of epidemiological transition between countries and regions and disparities in the diffusion of innovation, accessible only in high-income countries where life expectancy is already highest.

  18. Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

  19. The CBM first-level event selector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cuveland, Jan de; Lindenstruth, Volker [Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Goethe University, Frankfurt (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    The CBM experiment currently under construction at GSI/FAIR is designed to study QCD predictions at high baryon densities. The CBM First-Level Event Selector (FLES) is the central event selection system of the experiment. Designed as a high-performance computer cluster, its task is an online analysis of the physics data including full event reconstruction at an incoming data rate exceeding 1 TByte/s. The CBM detector systems are free-running and self-triggered, delivering time-stamped data streams. As there is no inherent event separation, traditional approaches for global event building and event selection are not directly applicable. Instead of event building, the FLES combines the data from approximately 1000 input links to self-contained, overlapping processing intervals and distributes them to compute nodes. It employs a high-bandwidth InfiniBand network as well as dedicated custom FPGA input boards providing time-addressed access to buffered data. Subsequently, specialized event selection algorithms analyze these processing intervals in 4-D, identify events, and select those relevant for storage depending on the chosen CBM setup and selection scenario. This presentation outlines the design of the CBM First-level Event Selector and summarizes the results from first prototype systems.

  20. Life expectancy in individuals with type 2 diabetes: implications for annuities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Hermione C; Clarke, Philip M; Gray, Alastair M; Holman, Rury R

    2010-01-01

    Insurance companies often offer people with diabetes ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' at preferential rates, in view of their reduced life expectancy. To assess the appropriateness of ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates for individuals with type 2 diabetes. Patients. There were 4026 subjects with established type 2 diabetes (but not known cardiovascular or other life-threatening diseases) enrolled into the UK Lipids in Diabetes Study. Measurements. Estimated individual life expectancy using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model. Subjects were a mean (SD) age of 60.7 (8.6) years, had a blood pressure of 141/83 (17/10) mm Hg, total cholesterol level of 4.5 (0.75) mmol/L, HDL cholesterol level of 1.2 (0.29) mmol/L, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) known diabetes duration of 6 (3-11) years, and HbA(1c) of 8.0% (7.2-9.0). Sixty-five percent were male, 91% white, 4% Afro-Caribbean, 5% Indian-Asian, and 15% current smokers. The UKPDS Outcomes Model median (IQR) estimated age at death was 76.6 (73.8-79.5) years compared with 81.6 (79.4-83.2) years, estimated using the UK Government Actuary's Department data for a general population of the same age and gender structure. The median (IQR) difference was 4.3 (2.8-6.1) years, a remaining life expectancy reduction of almost one quarter. The highest value annuity identified, which commences payments immediately for a 60-year-old man with insulin-treated type 2 diabetes investing 100,000, did not reflect this difference, offering 7.4K per year compared with 7.0K per year if not diabetic. The UK Government Actuary's Department data overestimate likely age at death in individuals with type 2 diabetes, and at present, ''enhanced impaired life annuity'' rates do not provide equity for people with type 2 diabetes. Using a diabetes-specific model to estimate life expectancy could provide valuable information to the annuity industry and permit more equitable annuity rates for those with type 2