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Sample records for expected event rate

  1. Data filtering and expected muon and neutrino event rates in the KM3NeT neutrino telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shanidze, Rezo [ECAP, University of Erlangen-Nuremberg, Erwin-Rommel-Str.1, 91058 Erlangen (Germany); Collaboration: ANTARES-KM3NeT-Erlangen-Collaboration

    2011-07-01

    KM3NeT is a future Mediterranean deep sea neutrino telescope with an instrumented volume of several cubic kilometres. The neutrino and muon events in KM3NeT will be reconstructed from the signals collected from the telescope's photo detectors. However, in the deep sea the dominant source of photon signals are the decays of K40 nuclei and bioluminescence. The selection of neutrino and muon events requires the implementation of fast and efficient data filtering algorithms for the reduction of accidental background event rates. Possible data filtering and triggering schemes for the KM3NeT neutrino telescope and expected muon and neutrino event rates are discussed.

  2. On the Expected Value of Fuzzy Events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klement, E.P.; Mesiar, Radko

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 23, Supplement 1 (2015), s. 57-74 ISSN 0218-4885 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : expected value * fuzzy event * Choquet integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/mesiar-0452568.pdf

  3. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  4. Event rates to be expected at PEP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richter, B.

    1988-01-01

    As a guide for planning experiments at PEP, some estimates are given of average luminosity, charged and neutral particle yields vs. momentum, QED test capabilities, and weak interaction effects. 2 figs

  5. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  6. Sex differences in common pain events: expectations and anchors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Dannecker, Erin A; Brown, Jennifer L; Jump, Rebecca L; Price, Donald D

    2003-02-01

    This study examined (1) the effects of sex-related stereotypes in commonly experienced, potentially painful events and (2) differences in events representing the worst pain sensation imaginable for the typical woman and the typical man. Undergraduates (63 women and 54 men) completed the Situational Pain Questionnaire as the typical woman would and as the typical man would. The participants also answered 2 open-ended questions regarding the worst pain sensation imaginable for the typical woman and for the typical man. Our findings demonstrate that sex-related stereotypes extend to common pain events and that men and women expected that men would report less pain for common pain events than women. This suggests a gender-role related learning history that is relatively consistent for both sexes. The worst pain sensation imaginable was perceived to be different for typical men and women. Both sexes chose injury as the class of events men would find most painful and childbirth and menstrual pain as the class of events women would find most painful. Implications of this finding for common pain scaling approaches are discussed. The results of this study were obtained from a fairly uniform group of undergraduate men and women, which may limit the generalizability of our findings.

  7. Interest rate rules and macroeconomic stability under heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2009-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a stylized macro model of Howitt (1992) to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations

  8. Expected impacts of climate change on extreme climate events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Planton, S.; Deque, M.; Chauvin, F.; Terray, L.

    2008-01-01

    An overview of the expected change of climate extremes during this century due to greenhouse gases and aerosol anthropogenic emissions is presented. The most commonly used methodologies rely on the dynamical or statistical down-scaling of climate projections, performed with coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models. Either of dynamical or of statistical type, down-scaling methods present strengths and weaknesses, but neither their validation on present climate conditions, nor their potential ability to project the impact of climate change on extreme event statistics allows one to give a specific advantage to one of the two types. The results synthesized in the last IPCC report and more recent studies underline a convergence for a very likely increase in heat wave episodes over land surfaces, linked to the mean warming and the increase in temperature variability. In addition, the number of days of frost should decrease and the growing season length should increase. The projected increase in heavy precipitation events appears also as very likely over most areas and also seems linked to a change in the shape of the precipitation intensity distribution. The global trends for drought duration are less consistent between models and down-scaling methodologies, due to their regional variability. The change of wind-related extremes is also regionally dependent, and associated to a poleward displacement of the mid-latitude storm tracks. The specific study of extreme events over France reveals the high sensitivity of some statistics of climate extremes at the decadal time scale as a consequence of regional climate internal variability. (authors)

  9. INES rating of radiation protection related events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hort, M.

    2009-01-01

    In this presentation, based on the draft Manual, a short review of the use of the INES rating of events concerning radiation protection is given, based on a new INES User's Manual edition. The presentation comprises a brief history of the scale development, general description of the scale and the main principles of the INES rating. Several examples of the use of the scale for radiation protection related events are mentioned. In the presentation, the term 'radiation protection related events' is used for radiation source and transport related events outside the nuclear installations. (authors)

  10. Sport tourist expectations of a world championship sporting event ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A questionnaire based on the Expectancy Disconfirmation Theory of Qu and Ping (1999) was administered to a convenience sample (n=123) from the universum of 893 international sport tourists attending the 2002 Tug-of-War World Championships in South Africa. Data was analysed through the Cronbach Alpha Method, ...

  11. PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez Cobo, A.

    1997-01-01

    The presentation discusses the PSA-based evaluation and rating of operational events, including the following: historical background, procedures for event evaluation using PSA, use of PSA for event rating, current activities

  12. Young Adults' Fertility Expectations and Events: Associations with College Enrollment and Persistence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raley, R. Kelly; Kim, Yujin; Daniels, Kimberly

    2012-01-01

    The analyses described in this article investigated the association between adolescent fertility expectations and college enrollment (N = 7,838). They also explored the potential impact of fertility expectations and events on college persistence among 4-year (n = 2,605) and 2-year (n = 1,962) college students. The analysis, which used data from…

  13. Net reclassification index at event rate: properties and relationships.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; D'Agostino, Ralph B

    2017-12-10

    The net reclassification improvement (NRI) is an attractively simple summary measure quantifying improvement in performance because of addition of new risk marker(s) to a prediction model. Originally proposed for settings with well-established classification thresholds, it quickly extended into applications with no thresholds in common use. Here we aim to explore properties of the NRI at event rate. We express this NRI as a difference in performance measures for the new versus old model and show that the quantity underlying this difference is related to several global as well as decision analytic measures of model performance. It maximizes the relative utility (standardized net benefit) across all classification thresholds and can be viewed as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the distributions of risk among events and non-events. It can be expressed as a special case of the continuous NRI, measuring reclassification from the 'null' model with no predictors. It is also a criterion based on the value of information and quantifies the reduction in expected regret for a given regret function, casting the NRI at event rate as a measure of incremental reduction in expected regret. More generally, we find it informative to present plots of standardized net benefit/relative utility for the new versus old model across the domain of classification thresholds. Then, these plots can be summarized with their maximum values, and the increment in model performance can be described by the NRI at event rate. We provide theoretical examples and a clinical application on the evaluation of prognostic biomarkers for atrial fibrillation. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  15. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    experiments and analysis of population time series and we explain why published valuesmay have overestimated the rates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgentthan reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on theirmarine ecosystems...

  16. Instructor Reputation: An Expectancy Relationship Involving Student Ratings and Achievement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Raymond P.

    1979-01-01

    Instructor expressiveness and lecture content were combined with instructor reputation in a 2 X 2 X 2 factorial design to assess interaction effects. Results indicated that reputation interacted with expressiveness but not content, in which students rated positive, high-expressive instructors more favorably than negative, high-expressive…

  17. Expected rate of fisheries-induced evolution is slow

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste; Brander, Keith

    2009-01-01

    based on experiments and analyses of population time series, and we explain why the published rates may be overestimates. Dealing with evolutionary effects of fishing is less urgent than reducing the direct detrimental effects of overfishing on exploited stocks and on their marine ecosystems....

  18. Expected reward modulates encoding-related theta activity before an event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruber, Matthias J; Watrous, Andrew J; Ekstrom, Arne D; Ranganath, Charan; Otten, Leun J

    2013-01-01

    Oscillatory brain activity in the theta frequency range (4-8 Hz) before the onset of an event has been shown to affect the likelihood of successfully encoding the event into memory. Recent work has also indicated that frontal theta activity might be modulated by reward, but it is not clear how reward expectancy, anticipatory theta activity, and memory formation might be related. Here, we used scalp electroencephalography (EEG) to assess the relationship between these factors. EEG was recorded from healthy adults while they memorized a series of words. Each word was preceded by a cue that indicated whether a high or low monetary reward would be earned if the word was successfully remembered in a later recognition test. Frontal theta power between the presentation of the reward cue and the onset of a word was predictive of later memory for the word, but only in the high reward condition. No theta differences were observed before word onset following low reward cues. The magnitude of prestimulus encoding-related theta activity in the high reward condition was correlated with the number of high reward words that were later confidently recognized. These findings provide strong evidence for a link between reward expectancy, theta activity, and memory encoding. Theta activity before event onset seems to be especially important for the encoding of motivationally significant stimuli. One possibility is that dopaminergic activity during reward anticipation mediates frontal theta activity related to memory. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Exchange Rate Expectations, Currency Crises, and the Pricing of American Depositary Receipts

    OpenAIRE

    Eichler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank...

  20. Automatic temporal expectancy: a high-density event-related potential study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Mento

    Full Text Available How we compute time is not fully understood. Questions include whether an automatic brain mechanism is engaged in temporally regular environmental structure in order to anticipate events, and whether this can be dissociated from task-related processes, including response preparation, selection and execution. To investigate these issues, a passive temporal oddball task requiring neither time-based motor response nor explicit decision was specifically designed and delivered to participants during high-density, event-related potentials recording. Participants were presented with pairs of audiovisual stimuli (S1 and S2 interspersed with an Inter-Stimulus Interval (ISI that was manipulated according to an oddball probabilistic distribution. In the standard condition (70% of trials, the ISI lasted 1,500 ms, while in the two alternative, deviant conditions (15% each, it lasted 2,500 and 3,000 ms. The passive over-exposition to the standard ISI drove participants to automatically and progressively create an implicit temporal expectation of S2 onset, reflected by the time course of the Contingent Negative Variation response, which always peaked in correspondence to the point of S2 maximum expectation and afterwards inverted in polarity towards the baseline. Brain source analysis of S1- and ISI-related ERP activity revealed activation of sensorial cortical areas and the supplementary motor area (SMA, respectively. In particular, since the SMA time course synchronised with standard ISI, we suggest that this area is the major cortical generator of the temporal CNV reflecting an automatic, action-independent mechanism underlying temporal expectancy.

  1. Possible multihazard events (tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides) expected on the North Bulgarian Black sea coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranguelov, B.; Gospodinopv, D.

    2009-04-01

    huge mass slide in the waters, buried Bisone and created the peak Chirakman. The event of 1901 also created landslides, subsidence of a huge land block with dimensions of about 1x1 km. and rock falls with large boulders. The landslide could be also submarine; creating is such way turbidities and/or mud flows from the bottom deposits like sapropel breccia and mud volcano depositions. The time dependent scenario The initial data about the time development of the hazards phenomena is based on their main physical properties - size, location, velocity of the process, intensity (magnitude), etc. The table about the main parameters, possible consequences and general threaten objects is created. The main time development of the disasters in case of the referent event (magnitude 7.2) is presented at the time chart diagram. The time chart development of the selected hazardous processes is presented as follows: Conclusions The time dependent scenario in case of a referent M7.2 seismic event is developed. The investigations about the consecutive and simultaneous action of all expected hazards and their multirisk effects are performed. The results obtained show the complex possible consequences and interrelated dependencies. Acknowledgments: This study is supported by the SCHEMA and TRANSFER EU Projects.

  2. Altering gender role expectations: effects on pain tolerance, pain threshold, and pain ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; Gagnon, Christine M; Riley, Joseph L; Price, Donald D

    2003-06-01

    The literature demonstrating sex differences in pain is sizable. Most explanations for these differences have focused on biologic mechanisms, and only a few studies have examined social learning. The purpose of this study was to examine the contribution of gender-role stereotypes to sex differences in pain. This study used experimental manipulation of gender-role expectations for men and women. One hundred twenty students participated in the cold pressor task. Before the pain task, participants were given 1 of 3 instructional sets: no expectation, 30-second performance expectation, or a 90-second performance expectation. Pain ratings, threshold, and tolerance were recorded. Significant sex differences in the "no expectation" condition for pain tolerance (t = 2.32, df = 38, P differ in their pain tolerance, pain threshold, or pain ratings. This is the first empirical study to show that manipulation of expectations alters sex differences in laboratory pain.

  3. Adjusting Expected Mortality Rates Using Information From a Control Population: An Example Using Socioeconomic Status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bower, Hannah; Andersson, Therese M-L; Crowther, Michael J; Dickman, Paul W; Lambe, Mats; Lambert, Paul C

    2018-04-01

    Expected or reference mortality rates are commonly used in the calculation of measures such as relative survival in population-based cancer survival studies and standardized mortality ratios. These expected rates are usually presented according to age, sex, and calendar year. In certain situations, stratification of expected rates by other factors is required to avoid potential bias if interest lies in quantifying measures according to such factors as, for example, socioeconomic status. If data are not available on a population level, information from a control population could be used to adjust expected rates. We have presented two approaches for adjusting expected mortality rates using information from a control population: a Poisson generalized linear model and a flexible parametric survival model. We used a control group from BCBaSe-a register-based, matched breast cancer cohort in Sweden with diagnoses between 1992 and 2012-to illustrate the two methods using socioeconomic status as a risk factor of interest. Results showed that Poisson and flexible parametric survival approaches estimate similar adjusted mortality rates according to socioeconomic status. Additional uncertainty involved in the methods to estimate stratified, expected mortality rates described in this study can be accounted for using a parametric bootstrap, but this might make little difference if using a large control population.

  4. The Effect of Imagining an Event on Expectations for the Event: An Interpretation in Terms of the Availability Heuristic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, John S.

    1978-01-01

    Previous studies have indicated that explaining a hypothetical event makes the event seem more likely through the creation of causal connections. However, such effects could arise through the use of the availability heuristic; that is, subjective likelihood is increased by an event becoming easier to "imagine". Two experiments were designed to…

  5. The rate of adverse events during IV conscious sedation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwamburger, Nathan T; Hancock, Raymond H; Chong, Chol H; Hartup, Grant R; Vandewalle, Kraig S

    2012-01-01

    Conscious sedation has become an integral part of dentistry; it is often used to reduce anxiety or fear in some patients during oral surgery, periodontal surgery, implant placement, and general dentistry procedures. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the frequency of adverse events during IV conscious sedation provided by credentialed general dentists and periodontists in the United States Air Force (USAF). Sedation clinical records (Air Force Form 1417) from calendar year 2009 were requested from all USAF bases. A total of 1,468 records were reviewed and 19 adverse events were noted in 17 patients. IV complication (infiltration) was the most common adverse event. The overall adverse event rate was 1.3 per 100 patients treated. The results of this study show that moderate sedation provided by general dentists and periodontists in the USAF has a low incidence of adverse events, and conscious sedation remains a viable option for providers for the reduction of anxiety in select patients.

  6. THE PRODUCTION RATE OF SN Ia EVENTS IN GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Washabaugh, Pearce C.; Bregman, Joel N.

    2013-01-01

    In globular clusters, dynamical evolution produces luminous X-ray emitting binaries at a rate about 200 times greater than in the field. If globular clusters also produce SN Ia at a high rate, it would account for many of the SN Ia production in early-type galaxies and provide insight into their formation. Here we use archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST) images of nearby galaxies that have hosted an SN Ia to examine the rate at which globular clusters produce these events. The location of the SN Ia is registered on an HST image obtained before the event or after the supernova (SN) faded. Of the 36 nearby galaxies examined, 21 had sufficiently good data to search for globular cluster hosts. None of the 21 SNe have a definite globular cluster counterpart, although there are some ambiguous cases. This places an upper limit to the enhancement rate of SN Ia production in globular clusters of about 42 at the 95% confidence level, which is an order of magnitude lower than the enhancement rate for luminous X-ray binaries. Even if all of the ambiguous cases are considered as having a globular cluster counterpart, the upper bound for the enhancement rate is 82 at the 95% confidence level, still a factor of several below that needed to account for half of the SN Ia events. Barring unforeseen selection effects, we conclude that globular clusters are not responsible for producing a significant fraction of the SN Ia events in early-type galaxies.

  7. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young-Xu, Yinong; Chan, K Arnold

    2008-08-19

    The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  8. Pooling overdispersed binomial data to estimate event rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan K Arnold

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The beta-binomial model is one of the methods that can be used to validly combine event rates from overdispersed binomial data. Our objective is to provide a full description of this method and to update and broaden its applications in clinical and public health research. Methods We describe the statistical theories behind the beta-binomial model and the associated estimation methods. We supply information about statistical software that can provide beta-binomial estimations. Using a published example, we illustrate the application of the beta-binomial model when pooling overdispersed binomial data. Results In an example regarding the safety of oral antifungal treatments, we had 41 treatment arms with event rates varying from 0% to 13.89%. Using the beta-binomial model, we obtained a summary event rate of 3.44% with a standard error of 0.59%. The parameters of the beta-binomial model took the values of 1.24 for alpha and 34.73 for beta. Conclusion The beta-binomial model can provide a robust estimate for the summary event rate by pooling overdispersed binomial data from different studies. The explanation of the method and the demonstration of its applications should help researchers incorporate the beta-binomial method as they aggregate probabilities of events from heterogeneous studies.

  9. Testing for long horizon UIP using PPP-Based Exchange Rate Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berk, J.M.; Knot, K.

    2001-01-01

    This paper revisits the uncovered interest parity relation. It supplements existing work in two ways: It focuses on long instead of short-term interest rates, and, related to that, employs exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead of actual outcomes. Among the

  10. Evaluation of misplaced event count rate using a scintillation camera

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yanagimoto, Shin-ichi; Tomomitsu, Tatsushi; Muranaka, Akira

    1985-01-01

    Misplaced event count rates were evaluated using an acryl scatter body of various thickness and a gamma camera. The count rate in the region of interest (ROI) within the camera view field, which was thought to represent part of the misplaced event count rate, increased as the thickness of the scatter body was increased to 5 cm, followed by a steep decline in the count rate. On the other hand, the ratio of the count rate in the ROI to the total count rate continuously increased as the thickness of the scatter body was increased. As the thickness of the scatter body was increased, the count rates increased, and the increments of increase were greater in the lower energy region of the photopeak than in the higher energy region. In ranges energy other than the photopeak, the influence of the scatter body on the count rate in the ROI was the greatest at 76 keV, which was the lowest energy we examined. (author)

  11. Multiple Case Study of Event Management Curricula and Industry Professionals' Expectations of New Graduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitney, Premila A.

    2016-01-01

    The event management segment of the hospitality industry has experienced tremendous growth in recent years. As a result, demand for qualified event management professionals continues to increase. To help prepare qualified professionals for the event management industry, higher education institutions in the United States are now offering…

  12. Impact of Formal Mentoring on Freshmen Expectations, Graduation Rates, and GPAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Nancy C.; Heilmann, Sharon G.; Johnson, Adrianne; Taylor, Ryan

    2016-01-01

    This quantitative study examines the expectations, graduation rates, and GPAs of participants (n = 113) in a formal mentorship program, "Freshmen Focus," at a small, rural Midwestern high school through the framework of organizational socialization theory (Van Maanen & Schein, 1977). Findings indicate freshmen students formed…

  13. Fast radio burst event rate counts - I. Interpreting the observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macquart, J.-P.; Ekers, R. D.

    2018-02-01

    The fluence distribution of the fast radio burst (FRB) population (the `source count' distribution, N (>F) ∝Fα), is a crucial diagnostic of its distance distribution, and hence the progenitor evolutionary history. We critically reanalyse current estimates of the FRB source count distribution. We demonstrate that the Lorimer burst (FRB 010724) is subject to discovery bias, and should be excluded from all statistical studies of the population. We re-examine the evidence for flat, α > -1, source count estimates based on the ratio of single-beam to multiple-beam detections with the Parkes multibeam receiver, and show that current data imply only a very weak constraint of α ≲ -1.3. A maximum-likelihood analysis applied to the portion of the Parkes FRB population detected above the observational completeness fluence of 2 Jy ms yields α = -2.6_{-1.3}^{+0.7 }. Uncertainties in the location of each FRB within the Parkes beam render estimates of the Parkes event rate uncertain in both normalizing survey area and the estimated post-beam-corrected completeness fluence; this uncertainty needs to be accounted for when comparing the event rate against event rates measured at other telescopes.

  14. Complexity rating of abnormal events and operator performance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oeivind Braarud, Per

    1998-01-01

    The complexity of the work situation during abnormal situations is a major topic in a discussion of safety aspects of Nuclear Power plants. An understanding of complexity and its impact on operator performance in abnormal situations is important. One way to enhance understanding is to look at the dimensions that constitute complexity for NPP operators, and how those dimensions can be measured. A further step is to study how dimensions of complexity of the event are related to performance of operators. One aspect of complexity is the operator 's subjective experience of given difficulties of the event. Another related aspect of complexity is subject matter experts ratings of the complexity of the event. A definition and a measure of this part of complexity are being investigated at the OECD Halden Reactor Project in Norway. This paper focus on the results from a study of simulated scenarios carried out in the Halden Man-Machine Laboratory, which is a full scope PWR simulator. Six crews of two licensed operators each performed in 16 scenarios (simulated events). Before the experiment subject matter experts rated the complexity of the scenarios, using a Complexity Profiling Questionnaire. The Complexity Profiling Questionnaire contains eight previously identified dimensions associated with complexity. After completing the scenarios the operators received a questionnaire containing 39 questions about perceived complexity. This questionnaire was used for development of a measure of subjective complexity. The results from the study indicated that Process experts' rating of scenario complexity, using the Complexity Profiling Questionnaire, were able to predict crew performance quite well. The results further indicated that a measure of subjective complexity could be developed that was related to crew performance. Subjective complexity was found to be related to subjective work load. (author)

  15. Calculation of expected rates of fisheries‐induced evolution in data‐poor situations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Ken Haste

    2010-01-01

    A central part of an impact assessment of the evolutionary effects of fishing is a calculation of the expected rates of fishing induced by current fishing practice and an evaluation of how alternative fishing patterns may reduce evolutionary impacts of fishing. Here a general size-based framework...... for modeling the demography of fish based on size-based prescriptions of natural mortality, growth, and fishing is presented. Life history theory is used to reduce the necessary parameter set by utilizing relations between parameters making the framework particularly well suited for data-poor situations where...... only the size at maturation or the asymptotic size is known. The framework is applied to perform the modeling part of an evolutionary impact assessment using basic quantitative genetics to calculated expected rates of evolution on size at maturation, growth rate, and investment in gonads. A sensitivity...

  16. The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

    2012-01-01

    Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

  17. Expectations in case of event - from a television editor's point of view

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, H.

    1997-01-01

    Informing the public about emergencies requires two different phases a of necessary operation: (1) a pre-event culture of permanent relations and communication, training authors and editors, and footage-providing, and (2) a mobile information task force to be alerted very quickly in case of event. Special television needings and recommandations are elaborated, the legal duties of german public radio and television corporations are outlined. (orig.) [de

  18. Does multimorbidity influence the occurrence rates of chronic conditions? A claims data based comparison of expected and observed prevalence rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingmar Schäfer

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Multimorbidity is a complex phenomenon with an almost endless number of possible disease combinations with unclear implications. One important aspect in analyzing the clustering of diseases is to distinguish between random coexistence and statistical dependency. We developed a model to account for random coexistence based on stochastic distribution. We analyzed if the number of diseases of the patients influences the occurrence rates of chronic conditions. METHODS: We analyzed claims data of 121,389 persons aged 65+ using a list of 46 chronic conditions. Expected prevalences were simulated by drawing without replacement from all observed diseases using observed overall prevalences as initial probability weights. To determine if a disease occurs more or less frequently than expected by chance we calculated observed-minus-expected deltas for each disease. We defined clinical relevance as |delta| ≥ 5.0%. 18 conditions were excluded because of a prevalence < 5.0%. RESULTS: We found that (1 two chronic conditions (e.g. hypertension were more frequent than expected in patients with a low number of comorbidities; (2 four conditions (e.g. renal insufficiency were more frequent in patients with many comorbidities; (3 six conditions (e.g. cancer were less frequent with many comorbidities; and (4 16 conditions had an average course of prevalences. CONCLUSION: A growing extent of multimorbidity goes along with a rapid growth of prevalences. This is for the largest part merely a stochastic effect. If we account for this effect we find that only few diseases deviate from the expected prevalence curves. Causes for these deviations are discussed. Our approach also has methodological implications: Naive analyses of multimorbidity might easily be affected by bias, because the prevalence of all chronic conditions necessarily increases with a growing extent of multimorbidity. We should therefore always examine and discuss the stochastic interrelations

  19. Alternative outcomes create biased expectations regarding the received outcome: Evidence from event-related potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marciano, Déborah; Bentin, Shlomo; Deouell, Leon Y

    2018-05-01

    After choosing between uncertain options, one might get feedback on both the outcome of the chosen option and the outcome of the unchosen option (the alternative). Behavioral research has shown that in such cases people engage in outcome comparison, and that the alternative outcome influences the way one evaluates his own received outcome. Moreover, this influence differs whether one was responsible or not for the choice made. In two studies, we looked for the electrophysiological correlates of outcome comparison. Subjects chose one of two boxes shown on the screen, each box contained a gain or a loss. The alternative outcome was always revealed first, followed by the received outcome. In half of the trials the software picked one box instead of subjects. We tested whether the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the P3 elicited by the received reflect outcome comparison. As expected, we found that the FRN and P3 were more positive when the received outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). The FRN and P3 were also sensitive to the value of the alternative outcome, but contrary to our predictions, they were more positive when the alternative outcome was a gain (vs. a loss). As the FRN and P3 are sensitive to expectations, we hypothesized that our findings might result from subjects' biased expectations: subjects might have wrongly believed that a good (bad) alternative outcome signaled a bad (good) received outcome. This hypothesis, coined as the Alternative Omen Effect, was confirmed in parallel in a series of behavioral experiments: people see an illusory negative correlation between the uncorrelated outcomes of choice options (reported in Marciano-Romm et al. (2016)). A challenge for future research will be to disentangle the effects of expectation from those of outcome comparison. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Rates for parallax-shifted microlensing events from ground-based observations of the galactic bulge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchalter, A.; Kamionkowski, M.

    1997-01-01

    The parallax effect in ground-based microlensing (ML) observations consists of a distortion to the standard ML light curve arising from the Earth's orbital motion. This can be used to partially remove the degeneracy among the system parameters in the event timescale, t 0 . In most cases, the resolution in current ML surveys is not accurate enough to observe this effect, but parallax could conceivably be detected with frequent follow-up observations of ML events in progress, providing the photometric errors are small enough. We calculate the expected fraction of ML events where the shape distortions will be observable by such follow-up observations, adopting Galactic models for the lens and source distributions that are consistent with observed microlensing timescale distributions. We study the dependence of the rates for parallax-shifted events on the frequency of follow-up observations and on the precision of the photometry. For example, we find that for hourly observations with typical photometric errors of 0.01 mag, 6% of events where the lens is in the bulge, and 31% of events where the lens is in the disk (or ∼10% of events overall), will give rise to a measurable parallax shift at the 95% confidence level. These fractions may be increased by improved photometric accuracy and increased sampling frequency. While long-duration events are favored, the surveys would be effective in picking out such distortions in events with timescales as low as t 0 ∼20 days. We study the dependence of these fractions on the assumed disk mass function and find that a higher parallax incidence is favored by mass functions with higher mean masses. Parallax measurements yield the reduced transverse speed, v, which gives both the relative transverse speed and lens mass as a function of distance. We give examples of the accuracies with which v may be measured in typical parallax events. (Abstract Truncated)

  1. Low-Rate DDoS Attack Detection Using Expectation of Packet Size

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhou

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Low-rate Distributed Denial-of-Service (low-rate DDoS attacks are a new challenge to cyberspace, as the attackers send a large amount of attack packets similar to normal traffic, to throttle legitimate flows. In this paper, we propose a measurement—expectation of packet size—that is based on the distribution difference of the packet size to distinguish two typical low-rate DDoS attacks, the constant attack and the pulsing attack, from legitimate traffic. The experimental results, obtained using a series of real datasets with different times and different tolerance factors, are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed measurement. In addition, extensive experiments are performed to show that the proposed measurement can detect the low-rate DDoS attacks not only in the short and long terms but also for low packet rates and high packet rates. Furthermore, the false-negative rates and the adjudication distance can be adjusted based on the detection sensitivity requirements.

  2. Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

    1978-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

  3. Rate-limiting events in hyperthermic cell killing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landry, J.; Marceau, N.

    1978-01-01

    The inactivation rate of HeLa cells for temperatures ranging from 41 to 55 0 C and treatment durations varying from 2 to 300 min was analyzed in thermodynamic terms by considering the dependence of cell free energy (ΔG + ) on temperature. Within this temperature range the loss of proliferative capacity exhibits a complex temperature dependence which is characterized by entropy and enthalpy values that gradually decrease as temperature increases. This complex process of heat-induced cell killing was postulated to be the result of a series of reactions, each of them being alternatively rate limiting within a certain temperature range. From this kinetic scheme a mathematical model was derived and, in the case of HeLa cells, the use of a least-squares search parameter procedure (as applied to the derived survival regression function) demonstrated that three such sequential reactions were sufficient to explain all experimental data points obtained within the 41 to 55 0 C range. The proposed model was also shown to be adequate for explaining survival data of HeLa cells exposed to nanosecond heat pulses of infrared laser energy. Considerations of thermodynamic properties of known biochemical reactions suggest plausible rate-limiting events in hyperthermic cell killing

  4. Growth rate for the expected value of a generalized random Fibonacci sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janvresse, Elise; De la Rue, Thierry; Rittaud, BenoIt

    2009-01-01

    We study the behaviour of generalized random Fibonacci sequences defined by the relation g n = |λg n-1 ± g n-2 |, where the ± sign is given by tossing an unbalanced coin, giving probability p to the + sign. We prove that the expected value of g n grows exponentially fast for any 0 (2 - λ)/4 when λ is of the form 2cos(π/k) for some fixed integer k ≥ 3. In both cases, we give an algebraic expression for the growth rate

  5. The Expected Loss in the Discretization of Multistage Stochastic Programming Problems - Estimation and Convergence Rate

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šmíd, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 165, č. 1 (2009), s. 29-45 ISSN 0254-5330 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/04/1294 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : multistage stochastic programming problems * approximation * discretization * Monte Carlo Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.961, year: 2009 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2008/E/smid-the expected loss in the discretization of multistage stochastic programming problems - estimation and convergence rate.pdf

  6. Approaches to proton single-event rate calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petersen, E.L.

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the fundamentals of proton-induced single-event upsets and of the various methods that have been developed to calculate upset rates. Two types of approaches are used based on nuclear-reaction analysis. Several aspects can be analyzed using analytic methods, but a complete description is not available. The paper presents an analytic description for the component due to elastic-scattering recoils. There have been a number of studies made using Monte Carlo methods. These can completely describe the reaction processes, including the effect of nuclear reactions occurring outside the device-sensitive volume. They have not included the elastic-scattering processes. The article describes the semiempirical approaches that are most widely used. The quality of previous upset predictions relative to space observations is discussed and leads to comments about the desired quality of future predictions. Brief sections treat the possible testing limitation due to total ionizing dose effects, the relationship of proton and heavy-ion upsets, upsets due to direct proton ionization, and relative proton and cosmic-ray upset rates

  7. Expected Rates of Renewable Energy Sources in Meeting of Energy Demands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ferenc Kovács

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Taking the expected growth of the world’s population and the estimated technological development and increase in living standards into account, the paper forecasts energy demands. On the basis of the actual production data of 380-400 EJ.year-1 in 2000 and data in publications, the author assumes the total energy demand to be 750-800 EJ.year-1 for 2030, 600-1,000 EJ.year-1 for 2050 and 900-3,600 EJ.year-1 for 2100. The author analyses the appearance of the different energy types in the history of mankind giving the specific heat content and heating value of the different fuels. The environmental advantages, disadvantages, technical and economic limits of application involved in the use of primary renewable energy sources are also dealt with. The analysis of the data in the different prognoses in publications gives the result that fossil fuels will meet 84-85 % of the total energy demand until 2030 in the foreseeable future. In 2050, the fossil rate may be 50-70 % and the rate of renewables may amount to 20-40 %. In 2100, the maximum fossil rate may be 40-50 % with a 30-60 % maximum rate of renewables. On the basis of the results of investigation, the general conclusion may be that the realistically exploitable amount of renewable energy sources is not so unlimitedly high as many suppose. Therefore, it is an illusion to expect that the replacement or substitution of mineral fuels and nuclear energy can be solved relying solely on renewable energies.

  8. Emotional expectations influence neural sensitivity to fearful faces in humans:An event-related potential study

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2010-01-01

    The present study tested whether neural sensitivity to salient emotional facial expressions was influenced by emotional expectations induced by a cue that validly predicted the expression of a subsequently presented target face. Event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by fearful and neutral faces were recorded while participants performed a gender discrimination task under cued (‘expected’) and uncued (‘unexpected’) conditions. The behavioral results revealed that accuracy was lower for fearful compared with neutral faces in the unexpected condition, while accuracy was similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. ERP data revealed increased amplitudes in the P2 component and 200–250 ms interval for unexpected fearful versus neutral faces. By contrast, ERP responses were similar for fearful and neutral faces in the expected condition. These findings indicate that human neural sensitivity to fearful faces is modulated by emotional expectations. Although the neural system is sensitive to unpredictable emotionally salient stimuli, sensitivity to salient stimuli is reduced when these stimuli are predictable.

  9. Collaborative Event-Driven Coverage and Rate Allocation for Event Miss-Ratio Assurances in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozgur Sanli H

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Wireless sensor networks are often required to provide event miss-ratio assurance for a given event type. To meet such assurances along with minimum energy consumption, this paper shows how a node's activation and rate assignment is dependent on its distance to event sources, and proposes a practical coverage and rate allocation (CORA protocol to exploit this dependency in realistic environments. Both uniform event distribution and nonuniform event distribution are considered and the notion of ideal correlation distance around a clusterhead is introduced for on-duty node selection. In correlation distance guided CORA, rate assignment assists coverage scheduling by determining which nodes should be activated for minimizing data redundancy in transmission. Coverage scheduling assists rate assignment by controlling the amount of overlap among sensing regions of neighboring nodes, thereby providing sufficient data correlation for rate assignment. Extensive simulation results show that CORA meets the required event miss-ratios in realistic environments. CORA's joint coverage scheduling and rate allocation reduce the total energy expenditure by 85%, average battery energy consumption by 25%, and the overhead of source coding up to 90% as compared to existing rate allocation techniques.

  10. High rate of adverse events following circumcision of young male ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    (94) refusing circumcision by the TK technique; 34 men were randomised to the FG group and 35 to the TK group, and 32 and 24 patients were circumcised by the FG and TK methods respectively, of whom 29 and 19 respectively attended the post-circumcision visit. All 12 adverse event sheets corresponded to the TK group ...

  11. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cramer, Holger; Haller, Heidemarie; Dobos, Gustav; Lauche, Romy

    2016-01-01

    A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73%) in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p = 0.03). For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%). The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants' sociodemographic and health condition.

  12. A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis Estimating the Expected Dropout Rates in Randomized Controlled Trials on Yoga Interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Holger Cramer

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A reasonable estimation of expected dropout rates is vital for adequate sample size calculations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs. Underestimating expected dropouts rates increases the risk of false negative results while overestimating rates results in overly large sample sizes, raising both ethical and economic issues. To estimate expected dropout rates in RCTs on yoga interventions, MEDLINE/PubMed, Scopus, IndMED, and the Cochrane Library were searched through February 2014; a total of 168 RCTs were meta-analyzed. Overall dropout rate was 11.42% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.11%, 12.73% in the yoga groups; rates were comparable in usual care and psychological control groups and were slightly higher in exercise control groups (rate = 14.53%; 95% CI = 11.56%, 17.50%; odds ratio = 0.82; 95% CI = 0.68, 0.98; p=0.03. For RCTs with durations above 12 weeks, dropout rates in yoga groups increased to 15.23% (95% CI = 11.79%, 18.68%. The upper border of 95% CIs for dropout rates commonly was below 20% regardless of study origin, health condition, gender, age groups, and intervention characteristics; however, it exceeded 40% for studies on HIV patients or heterogeneous age groups. In conclusion, dropout rates can be expected to be less than 15 to 20% for most RCTs on yoga interventions. Yet dropout rates beyond 40% are possible depending on the participants’ sociodemographic and health condition.

  13. A review on earthquake and tsunami hazards of the Sumatran plate boundary: Observing expected and unexpected events after the Aceh-Andaman Mw 9.15 event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natawidjaja, D.

    2013-12-01

    The 600-km Mentawai megathrust had produced two giant historical earthquakes generating big tsunamies in 1797 and 1833. The SuGAr (Sumatran GPS continuous Array) network, first deployed in 2002, shows that the subduction interface underlying Mentawai Islands and the neighboring Nias section in the north are fully locked, thus confirming their potential hazards. Outreach activities to warn people about earthquake and tsunamies had been started since 4 months prior to the 26 December 2004 in Aceh-Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.15). Later in March 2005, the expected megathrust earthquake (Mw 8.7) hit Nias-Simelue area and killed about 2000 people, releasing the accumulated strain since the previous 1861 event (~Mw 8.5). After then many Mw 7s and smaller events occured in Sumatra, filling areas between and around two giant ruptures and heighten seismicities in neighboring areas. In March 2007, the twin earthquake disaster (Mw 6.3 and Mw 6.4) broke two consecutive segments of the transcurrent Sumatran fault in the Singkarak lake area. Only six month later, in September 2007, the rapid-fire-failures of three consecutive megathrust patches (Mw 8.5, Mw 7.9 and Mw 7.0) ruptured a 250-km-section of the southern part of the Mentawai. It was a big surprise since this particular section is predicted as a very-low coupled section from modelling the SuGAr data, and hence, bypassing the more potential fully coupled section of the Mentawai in between the 2005 and 2007 ruptures. In September 2009, a rare unexpected event (Mw 7.6) suddenly ruptured an intracrustal fault in the subducted slab down under Padang City and killed about 500 people. Padang had been in preparation for the next tsunami but not for strong shakes from near by major earthquake. This event seems to have remotely triggered another Mw 6.7 on the Sumatran fault near kerinci Lake, a few hundred kilometers south of Padang, in less than a day. Just a year later, in November 2010, again an unexpected large slow-slip event of

  14. Standard and Nonstandard Neutrino-Nucleus Reactions Cross Sections and Event Rates to Neutrino Detection Experiments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. K. Papoulias

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we explore ν-nucleus processes from a nuclear theory point of view and obtain results with high confidence level based on accurate nuclear structure cross sections calculations. Besides cross sections, the present study includes simulated signals expected to be recorded by nuclear detectors and differential event rates as well as total number of events predicted to be measured. Our original cross sections calculations are focused on measurable rates for the standard model process, but we also perform calculations for various channels of the nonstandard neutrino-nucleus reactions and come out with promising results within the current upper limits of the corresponding exotic parameters. We concentrate on the possibility of detecting (i supernova neutrinos by using massive detectors like those of the GERDA and SuperCDMS dark matter experiments and (ii laboratory neutrinos produced near the spallation neutron source facilities (at Oak Ridge National Lab by the COHERENT experiment. Our nuclear calculations take advantage of the relevant experimental sensitivity and employ the severe bounds extracted for the exotic parameters entering the Lagrangians of various particle physics models and specifically those resulting from the charged lepton flavour violating μ-→e- experiments (Mu2e and COMET experiments.

  15. Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Zaigui

    2008-01-01

    Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

  16. Gender Differences in Rating Stressful Events, Depression, and Depressive Cognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sowa, Claudia J.; Lustman, Patrick J.

    1984-01-01

    Administered the Life Stress Questionnaire, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Automatic Thought Questionnaire to 140 students. Results showed significant sex differences. Men reported more stressful life change, but women rated the impact of stressors more severely and had higher depression. Men exhibited greater distortions in cognitive…

  17. Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale Turns 20. INES Helps Authorities Rate Events and Communicate Their Significance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verlini, Giovanni

    2011-01-01

    Originally developed in the 1990s jointly by IAEA and Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA) and Member States experts, INES was last revised in 2008 to become a more versatile and informative tool. INES is now designed to address events associated with the transport, storage and use of radioactive material and radiation sources, whether they occur at a nuclear installation or not.

  18. Expectancies, socioeconomic status, and self-rated health: use of the simplified TOMCATS Questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odéen, Magnus; Westerlund, Hugo; Theorell, Töres; Leineweber, Constanze; Eriksen, Hege R; Ursin, Holger

    2013-06-01

    Coping has traditionally been measured with inventories containing many items meant to identify specific coping strategies. An alternative is to develop a shorter inventory that focusses on coping expectancies which may determine the extent to which an individual attempts to cope actively. This paper explores the usefulness and validity of a simplified seven-item questionnaire (Theoretically Originated Measure of the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress, TOMCATS) for response outcome expectancies defined either as positive ("coping"), negative ("hopelessness"), or none ("helplessness"). The definitions are based on the Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS; Ursin and Eriksen, Psychoneuroendocrinology, 29(5):567–92, 2004). The questionnaire was tested in two different samples. First, the questionnaire was compared with a traditional test of coping and then tested for validity in relation to socioeconomic differences in self-reported health. The first study was a comparison of the brief TOMCATS with a short version of the Utrecht Coping List (UCL; Eriksen et al., Scand J Psychol, 38(3):175–82, 1997). Both questionnaires were tested in a population of 1,704 Norwegian municipality workers. The second study was a cross-sectional analysis of TOMCATS, subjective and objective socioeconomic status, and health in a representative sample of the Swedish working population in 2003–2005 (N = 11,441). In the first study, the coping item in the TOMCATS questionnaire showed an expected significant positive correlation with the UCL factors of instrumental mastery-oriented coping and negative correlations with passive and depressive scores. There were also the expected correlations for the helplessness and hopelessness scores, but there was no clear distinction between helplessness and hopelessness in the way they correlated with the UCL. In the second study, the coping item in TOMCATS and the three-item helplessness scores showed clear and monotonous gradients over

  19. High frame-rate neutron radiography of dynamic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bossi, R.H.; Robinson, A.H.; Barton, J.P.

    1981-01-01

    A system has been developed to perform neutron radiographic analysis of dynamic events having a duration of several milliseconds. The system has been operated in the range of 2000 to 10,000 frames/second. Synchronization has provided high-speed-motion neutron radiographs for evaluation of the firing cycle of 7.62 mm munition rounds within a steel rifle barrel. The system has also been used to demonstrate the ability to produce neutron radiographic movies of two-phase flow. The equipment uses the Oregon State University TRIGA reactor capable of pulsing to 3000 MW peak power, a neutron beam collimator, a scintillator neutron conversion screen coupled to an image intensifier, and a 16 mm high speed movie camera. The peak neutron flux incident at the object position is approximately 4 x 10 11 n/cm 2 s with a pulse, full width at half maximum, of 9 ms. Special studies have been performed on the scintillator conversion screens and on the effects of statistical limitations on the image quality. Modulation transfer function analysis has been used to assist in the evaluation of the system performance

  20. High frame-rate neutron radiography of dynamic events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bossi, R.H.; Robinson, A.H.; Barton, J.P.

    1983-01-01

    A system has been developed to perform neutron radiographic analysis of dynamic events having a duration of several milliseconds. The system has been operated in the range of 2000 to 10,000 frames/second. Synchronization has provided high-speed-motion neutron radiographs for evaluation of the firing cycle of 7.62 mm munition rounds within a steel rifle barrel. The system has also been used to demonstrate the ability to produce neutron radiographic movies of two phase flow. The equipment uses the Oregon State University TRIGA reactor capable of pulsing to 3000 MW peak power, a neutron beam collimator, a scintillator neutron conversion screen coupled to an image intensifier, and a 16 mm high speed movie camera. The peak neutron flux incident at the object position is approximately 4 x 10 11 n/cm 2 s with a pulse, full width at half maximum, of 9 ms. Special studies have been performed on the scintillator conversion screens and on the effects of statistical limitations on the image quality. Modulation transfer function analysis has been used to assist in the evaluation of the system performance. (Auth.)

  1. Event Rates in Randomized Clinical Trials Evaluating Cardiovascular Interventions and Devices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mahmoud, Karim D.; Lennon, Ryan J.; Holmes, David R.

    2015-01-01

    Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) are considered the gold standard for evidence-based medicine. However, an accurate estimation of the event rate is crucial for their ability to test clinical hypotheses. Overestimation of event rates reduces the required sample size but can compromise the

  2. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Misspecification Under Weibull Lifetimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization algorithm for the Box-Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model misspecification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  3. Drilling rates and expected oil prices: The own price elasticity of US oil supply

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, R.K.; Gruen, W.; Montesi, R.

    1994-01-01

    This paper evaluates the feasibility of policies to increase exploration and development by the oil industry. To do so, the authors estimate a new model for well completions in the United States that includes the effect of price expectations from survey data, that separates exploratory from development wells, and that uses a deflator based on the cost of drilling a well. The regression results indicate that the price elasticity of drilling is considerably smaller than previous estimates. When combined with recent analyses of drilling success, the results indicate that the own price elasticity of US oil supply is relatively small. The low price elasticity of supply indicates that efforts to increase domestic oil supplies by increasing well completions may be more expensive than believed previously

  4. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad

    2016-05-25

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  5. Maximizing Expected Achievable Rates for Block-Fading Buffer-Aided Relay Channels

    KAUST Repository

    Shaqfeh, Mohammad; Zafar, Ammar; Alnuweiri, Hussein; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, the long-term average achievable rate over block-fading buffer-aided relay channels is maximized using a hybrid scheme that combines three essential transmission strategies, which are decode-and-forward, compress-and-forward, and direct transmission. The proposed hybrid scheme is dynamically adapted based on the channel state information. The integration and optimization of these three strategies provide a more generic and fundamental solution and give better achievable rates than the known schemes in the literature. Despite the large number of optimization variables, the proposed hybrid scheme can be optimized using simple closed-form formulas that are easy to apply in practical relay systems. This includes adjusting the transmission rate and compression when compress-and-forward is the selected strategy based on the channel conditions. Furthermore, in this paper, the hybrid scheme is applied to three different models of the Gaussian block-fading buffer-aided relay channels, depending on whether the relay is half or full duplex and whether the source and the relay have orthogonal or non-orthogonal channel access. Several numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the achievable rate results and compare them to the upper bounds of the ergodic capacity for each one of the three channel models under consideration.

  6. Impact of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tombolotutu, A. D.; Djirimu, M. A.; Lutfi, M.; Anggadini, F.

    2018-05-01

    Research was conducted in several districts/city in Central Sulawesi Province in order to determine the effect of life expectancy, literacy rate, opened unemployment rate, and gross domestic regional income per capita on poverty at the districts/city in the province. The analysis used is Panel Data Regression. The results show that first, life expectancy and gross domestic regional income have a negative and significant impact on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province. Second, the opened unemployment rate has a positive and significant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the province. Third, literacy rates show a positive effect and insignificant effect on the poverty level in the districts/city in the Province of Central Sulawesi. Fourth, these four variables simultaneously affect the poverty in the districts/city in Central Sulawesi

  7. Subjective health complaints and self-rated health: are expectancies more important than socioeconomic status and workload?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2014-06-01

    The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relative effect of SES (as measured by level of education), physical workload, and response outcome expectancies on subjective health complaints (SHC) and self-rated health, and if response outcome expectancies mediate the effects of education and physical workload on SHC and self-rated health. A survey was carried out among 1,746 Norwegian municipal employees (mean age 44.2, 81 % females). Structural Equation Models with SHC and self-rated health as outcomes were conducted. Education, physical workload, and response outcome expectancies, were the independent 28 variables in the model. Helplessness/hopelessness had a stronger direct effect on self-rated health and SHC than education and physical workload, for both men and women. Helplessness/hopelessness fully mediated the effect of physical workload on SHC for men (0.121), and mediated 30 % of a total effect of 0.247 for women. For women, education had a small but significant indirect effect through helplessness/hopelessness on self-rated health (0.040) and SHC (-0.040), but no direct effects were found. For men, there was no effect of education on SHC, and only a direct effect on self-rated health (0.134). The results indicated that helplessness/hopelessness is more important for SHC and health than well-established measures on SES such as years of education and perceived physical workload in this sample. Helplessness/hopelessness seems to function as a mechanism between physical workload and health.

  8. Initiating Event Rates at U.S. Nuclear Power Plants. 1988 - 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schroeder, John A.; Bower, Gordon R.

    2014-01-01

    Analyzing initiating event rates is important because it indicates performance among plants and also provides inputs to several U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) risk-informed regulatory activities. This report presents an analysis of initiating event frequencies at U.S. commercial nuclear power plants since each plant's low-power license date. The evaluation is based on the operating experience from fiscal year 1988 through 2013 as reported in licensee event reports. Engineers with nuclear power plant experience staff reviewed each event report since the last update to this report for the presence of valid scrams or reactor trips at power. To be included in the study, an event had to meet all of the following criteria: includes an unplanned reactor trip (not a scheduled reactor trip on the daily operations schedule), sequence of events starts when reactor is critical and at or above the point of adding heat, occurs at a U.S. commercial nuclear power plant (excluding Fort St. Vrain and LaCrosse), and is reported by a licensee event report. This report displays occurrence rates (baseline frequencies) for the categories of initiating events that contribute to the NRC's Industry Trends Program. Sixteen initiating event groupings are trended and displayed. Initiators are plotted separately for initiating events with different occurrence rates for boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. p-values are given for the possible presence of a trend over the most recent 10 years.

  9. Expected indoor 222Rn levels in counties with very high and very low lung cancer rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.L.

    1989-01-01

    Counties in the US with high lung cancer rates should have higher average 222 Rn levels than counties with low lung cancer rates, assuming the average 222 Rn level in a county is not correlated with other factors that cause lung cancer. The magnitude of this effect was calculated, using the absolute risk model, the relative risk model, and an intermediate model, for females who died in 1950-1969. The results were similar for all three models. We concluded that, ignoring migration, the average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties should be about three times higher than in the lowest lung cancer counties according to the theory. Preliminary data are presented indicating that the situation is quite the opposite: The average Rn level in the highest lung cancer counties was only about one-half that in the lowest lung cancer counties

  10. Expected count rate for the Self- Interrogation Neutron Resonance Densitometry measurements of spent nuclear fuel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rossa, Riccardo [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang, 200 - B2400 Mol (Belgium); Universite libre de Bruxelles, Ecole polytechnique de Bruxelles - Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, CP 165/84, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 50 - B1050 Brussels (Belgium); Borella, Alessandro; Van der Meer, Klaas [SCK.CEN, Belgian Nuclear Research Centre, Boeretang, 200 - B2400 Mol (Belgium); Labeau, Pierre-Etienne; Pauly, Nicolas [Universite libre de Bruxelles, Ecole polytechnique de Bruxelles - Service de Metrologie Nucleaire, CP 165/84, Avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 50 - B1050 Brussels (Belgium)

    2015-07-01

    The Self-Interrogation Neutron Resonance Densitometry (SINRD) is a passive neutron technique that aims at a direct quantification of {sup 239}Pu in the fuel assemblies by measuring the attenuation of the neutron flux in the energy region close to the 0.3 eV resonance of {sup 239}Pu. The {sup 239}Pu mass is estimated by calculating the SINRD signature, that is the ratio between the neutron flux integrated over the fast energy region and around the 0.3 eV resonance region. The SINRD measurement approach considered in this study consists in introducing a small neutron detector in the central guide tube of a PWR 17x17 fuel assembly. In order to measure the neutron flux in the energy regions defined in the SINRD signature, different detector types are used. The response of a bare {sup 238}U fission chamber is considered for the determination of the fast neutron flux, while other thermal-epithermal detectors wrapped in neutron absorbers are envisaged to measure the neutron flux around the resonance region. This paper provides an estimation of the count rate that can be achieved with the detector types proposed for the SINRD measurement. In the first section a set of detectors are evaluated in terms of count rate and sensitivity to the {sup 239}Pu content, in order to identify the optimal measurement configuration for each detector type. Then a study is performed to increase the count rate by increasing the detector size. The study shows that the highest count rate is achieved by using either {sup 3}He or {sup 10}B proportional counters because of the high neutron efficiency of these detectors. However, the calculations indicate that the biggest contribution to the measurement uncertainty is due to the measurement of the fast neutron flux. Finally, similar sensitivity to the {sup 239}Pu content is obtained by using the different detector types for the measurement of the neutron flux close to the resonance region. Therefore, the count rate associated to each detector type

  11. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: A comparison of ten principal component methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Han Lin Shang

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Using the age- and sex-specific data of 14 developed countries, we compare the point and interval forecast accuracy and bias of ten principal component methods for forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy. The ten methods are variants and extensions of the Lee-Carter method. Based on one-step forecast errors, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate point forecasts of mortality rates and the Lee-Miller method is the least biased. For the accuracy and bias of life expectancy, the weighted Hyndman-Ullah method performs the best for female mortality and the Lee-Miller method for male mortality. While all methods underestimate variability in mortality rates, the more complex Hyndman-Ullah methods are more accurate than the simpler methods. The weighted Hyndman-Ullah method provides the most accurate interval forecasts for mortality rates, while the robust Hyndman-Ullah method provides the best interval forecast accuracy for life expectancy.

  12. Healthy life expectancy and the correlates of self-rated health in Bangladesh in 1996 and 2002.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tareque, Md Ismail; Saito, Yasuhiko; Kawahara, Kazuo

    2015-03-31

    Life expectancy (LE) at birth has increased steadily in Bangladesh since its independence. When people live longer, quality of life becomes a central issue. This study examines whether healthy life expectancy (HLE) at ages 15, 25, 35, and 45 is keeping pace with LE at those ages between 1996 and 2002. It also seeks to investigate the correlates of self-rated health (SRH) in 1996 and 2002. We used data from the World Values Survey conducted in 1996 and 2002 among individuals 15 years and older. The Sullivan method was used to compute HLE. Socio-demographic differences and their association with different states of health were examined by chi-square and Pearson's correlation tests. Multiple linear regression models were fitted to examine the correlates of SRH. The results show that perceived health improved between 1996 and 2002. For males, statistically significant increases in the expected number of years lived in good SRH were found. Proportionally, in 2002, both males and females at ages 15, 25, 35 and 45 expected more life years in good health and fewer life years in fair and poor health than did their counterparts in 1996. Comparatively, males expected fewer life years spent in good health but a much larger proportion of expected life in good health than did females. Finally, in multivariate analyses, life satisfaction was the only factor found to be significantly and positively associated with SRH for males and females in both years, although in both years the association was much more pronounced for females than for males. This study documented changes in HLE during 1996-2002. Women outlive men, but they have a lower quality of life and are more likely to live a greater part of their remaining life in poor SRH. Life satisfaction as well as other significant factors associated with SRH should be promoted, with special attention given to women, to improve healthy life expectancy and the quality of life of the Bangladeshi people.

  13. Organization of pulse-height analysis programs for high event rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cohn, C E [Argonne National Lab., Ill. (USA)

    1976-09-01

    The ability of a pulse-height analysis program to handle high event rates can be enhanced by organizing it so as to minimize the time spent in interrupt housekeeping. Specifically, the routine that services the data-ready interrupt from the ADC should test whether another event is ready before performing the interrupt return.

  14. On the Mass and Luminosity Functions of Tidal Disruption Flares: Rate Suppression due to Black Hole Event Horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Velzen, S.

    2018-01-01

    The tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole is expected to yield a luminous flare of thermal emission. About two dozen of these stellar tidal disruption flares (TDFs) may have been detected in optical transient surveys. However, explaining the observed properties of these events within the tidal disruption paradigm is not yet possible. This theoretical ambiguity has led some authors to suggest that optical TDFs are due to a different process, such as a nuclear supernova or accretion disk instabilities. Here we present a test of a fundamental prediction of the tidal disruption event scenario: a suppression of the flare rate due to the direct capture of stars by the black hole. Using a recently compiled sample of candidate TDFs with black hole mass measurements, plus a careful treatment of selection effects in this flux-limited sample, we confirm that the dearth of observed TDFs from high-mass black holes is statistically significant. All the TDF impostor models we consider fail to explain the observed mass function; the only scenario that fits the data is a suppression of the rate due to direct captures. We find that this suppression can explain the low volumetric rate of the luminous TDF candidate ASASSN-15lh, thus supporting the hypothesis that this flare belongs to the TDF family. Our work is the first to present the optical TDF luminosity function. A steep power law is required to explain the observed rest-frame g-band luminosity, {dN}/{{dL}}g\\propto {L}g-2.5. The mean event rate of the flares in our sample is ≈ 1× {10}-4 galaxy‑1 yr‑1, consistent with the theoretically expected tidal disruption rate.

  15. Reliability of the peer-review process for adverse event rating.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan J Forster

    Full Text Available Adverse events are poor patient outcomes caused by medical care. Their identification requires the peer-review of poor outcomes, which may be unreliable. Combining physician ratings might improve the accuracy of adverse event classification.To evaluate the variation in peer-reviewer ratings of adverse outcomes; determine the impact of this variation on estimates of reviewer accuracy; and determine the number of reviewers who judge an adverse event occurred that is required to ensure that the true probability of an adverse event exceeded 50%, 75% or 95%.Thirty physicians rated 319 case reports giving details of poor patient outcomes following hospital discharge. They rated whether medical management caused the outcome using a six-point ordinal scale. We conducted latent class analyses to estimate the prevalence of adverse events as well as the sensitivity and specificity of each reviewer. We used this model and Bayesian calculations to determine the probability that an adverse event truly occurred to each patient as function of their number of positive ratings.The overall median score on the 6-point ordinal scale was 3 (IQR 2,4 but the individual rater median score ranged from a minimum of 1 (in four reviewers to a maximum median score of 5. The overall percentage of cases rated as an adverse event was 39.7% (3798/9570. The median kappa for all pair-wise combinations of the 30 reviewers was 0.26 (IQR 0.16, 0.42; Min = -0.07, Max = 0.62. Reviewer sensitivity and specificity for adverse event classification ranged from 0.06 to 0.93 and 0.50 to 0.98, respectively. The estimated prevalence of adverse events using a latent class model with a common sensitivity and specificity for all reviewers (0.64 and 0.83 respectively was 47.6%. For patients to have a 95% chance of truly having an adverse event, at least 3 of 3 reviewers are required to deem the outcome an adverse event.Adverse event classification is unreliable. To be certain that a case

  16. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quigley, John; Wilson, Kevin J; Walls, Lesley; Bedford, Tim

    2013-12-01

    Typically, full Bayesian estimation of correlated event rates can be computationally challenging since estimators are intractable. When estimation of event rates represents one activity within a larger modeling process, there is an incentive to develop more efficient inference than provided by a full Bayesian model. We develop a new subjective inference method for correlated event rates based on a Bayes linear Bayes model under the assumption that events are generated from a homogeneous Poisson process. To reduce the elicitation burden we introduce homogenization factors to the model and, as an alternative to a subjective prior, an empirical method using the method of moments is developed. Inference under the new method is compared against estimates obtained under a full Bayesian model, which takes a multivariate gamma prior, where the predictive and posterior distributions are derived in terms of well-known functions. The mathematical properties of both models are presented. A simulation study shows that the Bayes linear Bayes inference method and the full Bayesian model provide equally reliable estimates. An illustrative example, motivated by a problem of estimating correlated event rates across different users in a simple supply chain, shows how ignoring the correlation leads to biased estimation of event rates. © 2013 Society for Risk Analysis.

  17. Estimating the effect of a rare time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Abigail R; Zhu, Danting; Goodrich, Nathan P; Merion, Robert M; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-05-30

    In many observational studies, the objective is to estimate the effect of treatment or state-change on the recurrent event rate. If treatment is assigned after the start of follow-up, traditional methods (eg, adjustment for baseline-only covariates or fully conditional adjustment for time-dependent covariates) may give biased results. We propose a two-stage modeling approach using the method of sequential stratification to accurately estimate the effect of a time-dependent treatment on the recurrent event rate. At the first stage, we estimate the pretreatment recurrent event trajectory using a proportional rates model censored at the time of treatment. Prognostic scores are estimated from the linear predictor of this model and used to match treated patients to as yet untreated controls based on prognostic score at the time of treatment for the index patient. The final model is stratified on matched sets and compares the posttreatment recurrent event rate to the recurrent event rate of the matched controls. We demonstrate through simulation that bias due to dependent censoring is negligible, provided the treatment frequency is low, and we investigate a threshold at which correction for dependent censoring is needed. The method is applied to liver transplant (LT), where we estimate the effect of development of post-LT End Stage Renal Disease (ESRD) on rate of days hospitalized. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Pupil responses and pain ratings to heat stimuli: Reliability and effects of expectations and a conditioning pain stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eisenach, James C; Curry, Regina; Aschenbrenner, Carol A; Coghill, Robert C; Houle, Timothy T

    2017-03-01

    The locus coeruleus (LC) signals salience to sensory stimuli and these responses can modulate the experience of pain stimuli. The pupil dilation response (PDR) to noxious stimuli is thought to be a surrogate for LC responses, but PDR response to Peltier-controlled noxious heat stimuli, the most commonly used method in experimental pain research, has not been described. Healthy volunteers were presented with randomly presented heat stimuli of 5 sec duration and provided pain intensity ratings to each stimulus. Pupillometry was performed and a method developed to quantify the PDR relevant to these stimuli. The stimulus response, reliability, and effect of commonly used manipulations on pain experience were explored. A method of artifact removal and adjusting for lag from stimulus initiation to PDR response was developed, resulting in a close correlation between pain intensity rating and PDR across a large range of heat stimuli. A reliable assessment of PDR within an individual was achieved with fewer presentations as heat stimulus intensity increased. The correlation between pain rating and PDR was disrupted when cognitive load is increased by manipulating expectations or presenting a second pain stimulus. The PDR began later after skin heating than electrical stimuli and this is the first examination of the PDR using standard nociceptive testing and manipulations of expectations and competing noxious stimulation. A method is described applying PDR to standard heat nociceptive testing, demonstrating stimulus response, reliability, and disruption by cognitive manipulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Super-Eddington Accretion in Tidal Disruption Events: the Impact of Realistic Fallback Rates on Accretion Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Samantha; Coughlin, Eric R.; Nixon, Chris

    2018-04-01

    After the tidal disruption of a star by a massive black hole, disrupted stellar debris can fall back to the hole at a rate significantly exceeding its Eddington limit. To understand how black hole mass affects the duration of super-Eddington accretion in tidal disruption events, we first run a suite of simulations of the disruption of a Solar-like star by a supermassive black hole of varying mass to directly measure the fallback rate onto the hole, and we compare these fallback rates to the analytic predictions of the "frozen-in" model. Then, adopting a Zero-Bernoulli Accretion flow as an analytic prescription for the accretion flow around the hole, we investigate how the accretion rate onto the black hole evolves with the more accurate fallback rates calculated from the simulations. We find that numerically-simulated fallback rates yield accretion rates onto the hole that can, depending on the black hole mass, be nearly an order of magnitude larger than those predicted by the frozen-in approximation. Our results place new limits on the maximum black hole mass for which super-Eddington accretion occurs in tidal disruption events.

  20. Impact of whole-genome duplication events on diversification rates in angiosperms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Jacob B; Soltis, Douglas E; Li, Zheng; Marx, Hannah E; Barker, Michael S; Tank, David C; Soltis, Pamela S

    2018-03-01

    Polyploidy or whole-genome duplication (WGD) pervades the evolutionary history of angiosperms. Despite extensive progress in our understanding of WGD, the role of these events in promoting diversification is still not well understood. We seek to clarify the possible association between WGD and diversification rates in flowering plants. Using a previously published phylogeny spanning all land plants (31,749 tips) and WGD events inferred from analyses of the 1000 Plants (1KP) transcriptome data, we analyzed the association of WGDs and diversification rates following numerous WGD events across the angiosperms. We used a stepwise AIC approach (MEDUSA), a Bayesian mixture model approach (BAMM), and state-dependent diversification analyses (MuSSE) to investigate patterns of diversification. Sister-clade comparisons were used to investigate species richness after WGDs. Based on the density of 1KP taxon sampling, 106 WGDs were unambiguously placed on the angiosperm phylogeny. We identified 334-530 shifts in diversification rates. We found that 61 WGD events were tightly linked to changes in diversification rates, and state-dependent diversification analyses indicated higher speciation rates for subsequent rounds of WGD. Additionally, 70 of 99 WGD events showed an increase in species richness compared to the sister clade. Forty-six of the 106 WGDs analyzed appear to be closely associated with upshifts in the rate of diversification in angiosperms. Shifts in diversification do not appear more likely than random within a four-node lag phase following a WGD; however, younger WGD events are more likely to be followed by an upshift in diversification than older WGD events. © 2018 Botanical Society of America.

  1. Differences in the rates of patient safety events by payer: implications for providers and policymakers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Christine S; Roberts, Eric T; Gaskin, Darrell J

    2015-06-01

    The reduction of adverse patient safety events and the equitable treatment of patients in hospitals are clinical and policy priorities. Health services researchers have identified disparities in the quality of care provided to patients, both by demographic characteristics and insurance status. However, less is known about the extent to which disparities reflect differences in the places where patients obtain care, versus disparities in the quality of care provided to different groups of patients in the same hospital. In this study, we examine whether the rate of adverse patient safety events differs by the insurance status of patients within the same hospital. Using discharge data from hospitals in 11 states, we compared risk-adjusted rates for 13 AHRQ Patient Safety Indicators by Medicare, Medicaid, and Private payer insurance status, within the same hospitals. We used multivariate regression to assess the relationship between insurance status and rates of adverse patient safety events within hospitals. Medicare and Medicaid patients experienced significantly more adverse safety events than private pay patients for 12 and 7 Patient Safety Indicators, respectively (at P patients had significantly lower event rates than private payers on 2 Patient Safety Indicators. Risk-adjusted Patient Safety Indicator rates varied with patients' insurance within the same hospital. More research is needed to determine the cause of differences in care quality received by patients at the same hospital, especially if quality measures are to be used for payment.

  2. Managing Expectations: Results from Case Studies of US Water Utilities on Preparing for, Coping with, and Adapting to Extreme Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beller-Simms, N.; Metchis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Water utilities, reeling from increased impacts of successive extreme events such as floods, droughts, and derechos, are taking a more proactive role in preparing for future incursions. A recent study by Federal and water foundation investigators, reveals how six US water utilities and their regions prepared for, responded to, and coped with recent extreme weather and climate events and the lessons they are using to plan future adaptation and resilience activities. Two case studies will be highlighted. (1) Sonoma County, CA, has had alternating floods and severe droughts. In 2009, this area, home to competing water users, namely, agricultural crops, wineries, tourism, and fisheries faced a three-year drought, accompanied at the end by intense frosts. Competing uses of water threatened the grape harvest, endangered the fish industry and resulted in a series of regulations, and court cases. Five years later, new efforts by partners in the entire watershed have identified mutual opportunities for increased basin sustainability in the face of a changing climate. (2) Washington DC had a derecho in late June 2012, which curtailed water, communications, and power delivery during a record heat spell that impacted hundreds of thousands of residents and lasted over the height of the tourist-intensive July 4th holiday. Lessons from this event were applied three months later in anticipation of an approaching Superstorm Sandy. This study will help other communities in improving their resiliency in the face of future climate extremes. For example, this study revealed that (1) communities are planning with multiple types and occurrences of extreme events which are becoming more severe and frequent and are impacting communities that are expanding into more vulnerable areas and (2) decisions by one sector can not be made in a vacuum and require the scientific, sectoral and citizen communities to work towards sustainable solutions.

  3. Gamma-ray dose rate increase at rainfall events and their air-mass origins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iyogi, Takashi; Hisamatsu, Shun'ichi; Inaba, Jiro

    2007-01-01

    The environmental γ-ray dose rate and precipitation rates were measured at our institute, in Rokkasho, Aomori, Japan. We analyzed 425 rainfall events in which the precipitation rate was over 0.5 mm from April through November during the years 2003 to 2005. Backward trajectories for 5 d starting from 1000 m above Rokkasho at the time of the maximum dose rate in a rainfall event, were calculated by using the HYSPLIT model of the NOAA Air Resources Laboratory. The trajectories for 5 d were classified by visual inspection according to the passage areas; Pacific Ocean, Asian Continent and Japan Islands. The increase of cumulative environmental γ-ray dose during a rainfall event was plotted against the precipitation in the event, and their relationship was separately examined according to the air-mass passage area, i.e. origin of the air-mass. Our results showed that the origin of air-mass was an important factor affecting the increase of environmental γ-ray dose rate by rainfall. (author)

  4. Regression analysis of mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data with additive rate models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Liang; Zhao, Hui; Sun, Jianguo; Leisenring, Wendy; Robison, Leslie L

    2015-03-01

    Event-history studies of recurrent events are often conducted in fields such as demography, epidemiology, medicine, and social sciences (Cook and Lawless, 2007, The Statistical Analysis of Recurrent Events. New York: Springer-Verlag; Zhao et al., 2011, Test 20, 1-42). For such analysis, two types of data have been extensively investigated: recurrent-event data and panel-count data. However, in practice, one may face a third type of data, mixed recurrent-event and panel-count data or mixed event-history data. Such data occur if some study subjects are monitored or observed continuously and thus provide recurrent-event data, while the others are observed only at discrete times and hence give only panel-count data. A more general situation is that each subject is observed continuously over certain time periods but only at discrete times over other time periods. There exists little literature on the analysis of such mixed data except that published by Zhu et al. (2013, Statistics in Medicine 32, 1954-1963). In this article, we consider the regression analysis of mixed data using the additive rate model and develop some estimating equation-based approaches to estimate the regression parameters of interest. Both finite sample and asymptotic properties of the resulting estimators are established, and the numerical studies suggest that the proposed methodology works well for practical situations. The approach is applied to a Childhood Cancer Survivor Study that motivated this study. © 2014, The International Biometric Society.

  5. Adverse Event Rates Associated with Transforaminal and Interlaminar Epidural Steroid Injections: A Multi-Institutional Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    El-Yahchouchi, Christine A; Plastaras, Christopher T; Maus, Timothy P; Carr, Carrie M; McCormick, Zachary L; Geske, Jennifer R; Smuck, Matthew; Pingree, Matthew J; Kennedy, David J

    2016-02-01

    Transforaminal epidural steroid injections (TFESI) have demonstrated efficacy and effectiveness in treatment of radicular pain. Despite little evidence of efficacy/effectiveness, interlaminar epidural steroid injections (ILESI) are advocated by some as primary therapy for radicular pain due to purported greater safety. To assess immediate and delayed adverse event rates of TFESI and ILESI injections at three academic medical centers utilizing International Spine Intervention Society practice guidelines. Quality assurance databases from a Radiology and two physical medicine and rehabilitation (PM&R) practices were interrogated. Medical records were reviewed, verifying immediate and delayed adverse events. There were no immediate major adverse events of neurologic injury or hemorrhage in 16,638 consecutive procedures in all spine segments (14,956 TFESI; 1,682 ILESI). Vasovagal reactions occurred in 1.2% of procedures, more frequently (P = 0.004) in TFESI (1.3%) than ILESI (0.5%). Dural punctures occurred in 0.06% of procedures, more commonly after ILESI (0.2% vs 0.04%, P = 0.006). Delayed follow up on PM&R patients (92.5% and 78.5, next business day) and radiology patients (63.1%, 2 weeks) identified no major adverse events of neurologic injury, hemorrhage, or infection. There were no significant differences in delayed minor adverse event rates. Central steroid response (sleeplessness, flushing, nonpositional headache) was seen in 2.6% of both TFESI and ILESI patients. 2.1% of TFESI and 1.8% of ILESI patients reported increased pain. No long-term sequelae were seen from any immediate or delayed minor adverse event. Both transforaminal and ILESI are safely performed with low immediate and delayed adverse event rates when informed by evidence-based procedural guidelines. By demonstrating comparable safety, this study suggests that the choice between ILESI and TFESIs can be based on documented efficacy and effectiveness and not driven by safety concerns.

  6. High cardiovascular event rates in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the REACH Registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aichner, F T; Topakian, R; Alberts, M J

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Data on current cardiovascular event rates in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) are sparse. We compared the 1-year outcomes of patients with ACAS > or =70% versus patients without ACAS in an international, prospective cohort of outpatients with or a...

  7. Measurement Differences from Rating Posttraumatic Stress Disorder Symptoms in Response to Differentially Distressing Traumatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhai, Jon D.; Fine, Thomas H.

    2012-01-01

    The authors explored differences in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms as a result of rating symptoms from two separate, differentially distressing traumatic events. In an initial sample of 400 nonclinical participants, the authors inquired through a web survey about previous psychological trauma, instructing participants to nominate…

  8. Ratings of Severity of Life Events by Ninth-Grade Students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, Jerry B.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    Special education, basic, and honors ninth-grade students (n=60) rated the severity of stress for each of the life events on the Source of Stress Inventory (Chandler, 1981). There was a significant positive relationship between the Chandler rankings (teachers and mental health workers) and the student rankings. (Author/NB)

  9. Evaluation of the product ratio coherent model in forecasting mortality rates and life expectancy at births by States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shair, Syazreen Niza; Yusof, Aida Yuzi; Asmuni, Nurin Haniah

    2017-05-01

    Coherent mortality forecasting models have recently received increasing attention particularly in their application to sub-populations. The advantage of coherent models over independent models is the ability to forecast a non-divergent mortality for two or more sub-populations. One of the coherent models was recently developed by [1] known as the product-ratio model. This model is an extension version of the functional independent model from [2]. The product-ratio model has been applied in a developed country, Australia [1] and has been extended in a developing nation, Malaysia [3]. While [3] accounted for coherency of mortality rates between gender and ethnic group, the coherency between states in Malaysia has never been explored. This paper will forecast the mortality rates of Malaysian sub-populations according to states using the product ratio coherent model and its independent version— the functional independent model. The forecast accuracies of two different models are evaluated using the out-of-sample error measurements— the mean absolute forecast error (MAFE) for age-specific death rates and the mean forecast error (MFE) for the life expectancy at birth. We employ Malaysian mortality time series data from 1991 to 2014, segregated by age, gender and states.

  10. A method for estimating failure rates for low probability events arising in PSA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorne, M.C.; Williams, M.M.R.

    1995-01-01

    The authors develop a method for predicting failure rates and failure probabilities per event when, over a given test period or number of demands, no failures have occurred. A Bayesian approach is adopted to calculate a posterior probability distribution for the failure rate or failure probability per event subsequent to the test period. This posterior is then used to estimate effective failure rates or probabilities over a subsequent period of time or number of demands. In special circumstances, the authors results reduce to the well-known rules of thumb, viz: 1/N and 1/T, where N is the number of demands during the test period for no failures and T is the test period for no failures. However, the authors are able to give strict conditions on the validity of these rules of thumb and to improve on them when necessary

  11. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  12. [Incidence rate of adverse reaction/event by Qingkailing injection: a Meta-analysis of single rate].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ai, Chun-ling; Xie, Yan-ming; Li, Ming-quan; Wang, Lian-xin; Liao, Xing

    2015-12-01

    To systematically review the incidence rate of adverse drug reaction/event by Qingkailing injection. Such databases as the PubMed, EMbase, the Cochrane library, CNKI, VIP WanFang data and CBM were searched by computer from foundation to July 30, 2015. Two reviewers independently screened literature according to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, extracted data and cross check data. Then, Meta-analysis was performed by using the R 3.2.0 software, subgroup sensitivity analysis was performed based on age, mode of medicine, observation time and research quality. Sixty-three studies involving 9,793 patients with Qingkailing injection were included, 367 cases of adverse reactions/events were reported in total. The incidence rate of adverse reaction in skin and mucosa group was 2% [95% CI (0.02; 0.03)]; the digestive system adverse reaction was 6% [95% CI(0.05; 0.07); the injection site adverse reaction was 4% [95% CI (0.02; 0.07)]. In the digestive system as the main types of adverse reactions/events, incidence of children and adults were 4.6% [0.021 1; 0.097 7] and 6.9% [0.053 5; 0.089 8], respectively. Adverse reactions to skin and mucous membrane damage as the main performance/event type, the observation time > 7 days and ≤ 7 days incidence of 3% [0.012 9; 0.068 3] and 1.9% [0.007 8; 0.046 1], respectively. Subgroup analysis showed that different types of adverse reactions, combination in the incidence of adverse reactions/events were higher than that of single drug, the difference was statistically significant (P reactions occur, and clinical rational drug use, such as combination, age and other fators, and the influence factors vary in different populations. Therefore, clinical doctors for children and the elderly use special care was required for a clear and open spirit injection, the implementation of individualized medication.

  13. Unfamiliar voice identification: Effect of post-event information on accuracy and voice ratings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet Mary Jessica Smith

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available This study addressed the effect of misleading post-event information (PEI on voice ratings, identification accuracy, and confidence, as well as the link between verbal recall and accuracy. Participants listened to a dialogue between male and female targets, then read misleading information about voice pitch. Participants engaged in verbal recall, rated voices on a feature checklist, and made a lineup decision. Accuracy rates were low, especially on target-absent lineups. Confidence and accuracy were unrelated, but the number of facts recalled about the voice predicted later lineup accuracy. There was a main effect of misinformation on ratings of target voice pitch, but there was no effect on identification accuracy or confidence ratings. As voice lineup evidence from earwitnesses is used in courts, the findings have potential applied relevance.

  14. Spectral analysis of time series of events: effect of respiration on heart rate in neonates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Drongelen, Wim; Williams, Amber L; Lasky, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    Certain types of biomedical processes such as the heart rate generator can be considered as signals that are sampled by the occurring events, i.e. QRS complexes. This sampling property generates problems for the evaluation of spectral parameters of such signals. First, the irregular occurrence of heart beats creates an unevenly sampled data set which must either be pre-processed (e.g. by using trace binning or interpolation) prior to spectral analysis, or analyzed with specialized methods (e.g. Lomb's algorithm). Second, the average occurrence of events determines the Nyquist limit for the sampled time series. Here we evaluate different types of spectral analysis of recordings of neonatal heart rate. Coupling between respiration and heart rate and the detection of heart rate itself are emphasized. We examine both standard and data adaptive frequency bands of heart rate signals generated by models of coupled oscillators and recorded data sets from neonates. We find that an important spectral artifact occurs due to a mirror effect around the Nyquist limit of half the average heart rate. Further we conclude that the presence of respiratory coupling can only be detected under low noise conditions and if a data-adaptive respiratory band is used

  15. Using data to help increase STEM retention rates for at-risk students; Student expectations and skill building

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, D. E.; Jones, G.; Heaney, A.

    2013-12-01

    Retention in the STEM fields is often a focus for higher education due to a shortage of trained workforce members. In particular, much effort has been spent on first year retention rates and introductory level courses under the assumption that students are more likely to drop out of STEM majors early in their higher education degree progress. While the retention rates of women, minorities, and low income students have been a priority by both the National Science Foundation and the private sector, we are interested in at-risk first year students for this study. The University of Wyoming Synergy Program's goal is to promote academic success and retention for underprepared and at-risk students by creating a series of first semester curricula as theme-based college transition skills courses that are paired with English courses. This creates a cohort group of courses for the students with increased communication between instructors at the same time allowing greater development of student social networks. In this study we are highlighting the results of the STEM students as compared with other at-risk participants in the program. The Synergy Program enrolls approximately 144 students each year with pre- and post-course surveys that directly measure which college skills students select as important as well as student expectations of the amount of time required for STEM courses. Follow-up surveys track the same queries for students who persist to their junior and senior year. In addition, instructors complete a summative survey about skills they find important to student success and individual student's challenges and successes with a variety of skills. Our results show a large gap in skills between those identified as important by students and those identified by their instructors. Expectations for the amount of time required to complete work for STEM courses and the reported time spent on course work are not constant when progressing throughout college. This analysis

  16. LIMITS ON THE EVENT RATES OF FAST RADIO TRANSIENTS FROM THE V-FASTR EXPERIMENT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wayth, Randall B.; Tingay, Steven J.; Deller, Adam T.; Brisken, Walter F.; Thompson, David R.; Wagstaff, Kiri L.; Majid, Walid A.

    2012-01-01

    We present the first results from the V-FASTR experiment, a commensal search for fast transient radio bursts using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). V-FASTR is unique in that the widely spaced VLBA antennas provide a discriminant against non-astronomical signals and a mechanism for the localization and identification of events that is not possible with single dishes or short baseline interferometers. Thus, far V-FASTR has accumulated over 1300 hr of observation time with the VLBA, between 90 cm and 3 mm wavelength (327 MHz-86 GHz), providing the first limits on fast transient event rates at high radio frequencies (>1.4 GHz). V-FASTR has blindly detected bright individual pulses from seven known pulsars but has not detected any single-pulse events that would indicate high-redshift impulsive bursts of radio emission. At 1.4 GHz, V-FASTR puts limits on fast transient event rates comparable with the PALFA survey at the Arecibo telescope, but generally at lower sensitivities, and comparable to the 'fly's eye' survey at the Allen Telescope Array, but with less sky coverage. We also illustrate the likely performance of the Phase 1 SKA dish array for an incoherent fast transient search fashioned on V-FASTR.

  17. Nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of flood events in Portuguese watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Silva

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available An exploratory analysis on the variability of flood occurrence rates in 10 Portuguese watersheds is made, to ascertain if that variability is concurrent with the principle of stationarity. A peaks-over-threshold (POT sampling technique is applied to 10 long series of mean daily streamflows and to 4 long series of daily rainfall in order to sample the times of occurrence (POT time data of the peak values of those series. The kernel occurrence rate estimator, coupled with a bootstrap approach, was applied to the POT time data to obtain the time dependent estimated occurrence rate curves, λˆ(t, of floods and extreme rainfall events. The results of the analysis show that the occurrence of those events constitutes an inhomogeneous Poisson process, hence the occurrence rates are nonstationary. An attempt was made to assess whether the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO casted any influence on the occurrence rate of floods in the study area. Although further research is warranted, it was found that years with a less-than-average occurrence of floods tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the positive phase, and years with a higher occurrence of floods (more than twice the average tend to occur when the winter NAO is in the negative phase. Although the number of analyzed watersheds and their uneven spatial distribution hinders the generalization of the findings to the country scale, the authors conclude that the mathematical formulation of the flood frequency models relying on stationarity commonly employed in Portugal should be revised in order to account for possible nonstationarities in the occurrence rates of such events.

  18. The Informational Content of Credit Ratings in Brazil: An Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávia Cruz de Souza Murcia

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This study analyzes the effect of credit rating announcements on stock returns in the Brazilian market during 1997-2011. We conducted an event study using a sample of 242 observations of listed companies, 179 from Standard and Poor’s and 63 from Moody’s, to analyze stock market reaction. Abnormal returns have been computed using the Market Model and CAPM for three windows: three days (-1, +1, 11 days (-5, +5 and 21 days (-10, +10. We find statistically significant abnormal returns in days -1 and 0 for all the three types of rating announcement tested: initial rating, downgrades and upgrades. For downgrades, consisted with prior studies, our results also showed negative abnormal returns for all practically all windows tested. Overall, our findings evidence the rating announcements do have information content, as it impacts stock returns causing abnormal returns, especially when they bring ‘bad news’ to the market.

  19. Relationship between medication event rates and the Leapfrog computerized physician order entry evaluation tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Alexander A; Keohane, Carol; Lipsitz, Stuart; Zimlichman, Eyal; Amato, Mary; Simon, Steven R; Coffey, Michael; Kaufman, Nathan; Cadet, Bismarck; Schiff, Gordon; Seger, Diane L; Bates, David W

    2013-06-01

    The Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool has been promoted as a means of monitoring computerized physician order entry (CPOE). We sought to determine the relationship between Leapfrog scores and the rates of preventable adverse drug events (ADE) and potential ADE. A cross-sectional study of 1000 adult admissions in five community hospitals from October 1, 2008 to September 30, 2010 was performed. Observed rates of preventable ADE and potential ADE were compared with scores reported by the Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool. The primary outcome was the rate of preventable ADE and the secondary outcome was the composite rate of preventable ADE and potential ADE. Leapfrog performance scores were highly related to the primary outcome. A 43% relative reduction in the rate of preventable ADE was predicted for every 5% increase in Leapfrog scores (rate ratio 0.57; 95% CI 0.37 to 0.88). In absolute terms, four fewer preventable ADE per 100 admissions were predicted for every 5% increase in overall Leapfrog scores (rate difference -4.2; 95% CI -7.4 to -1.1). A statistically significant relationship between Leapfrog scores and the secondary outcome, however, was not detected. Our findings support the use of the Leapfrog tool as a means of evaluating and monitoring CPOE performance after implementation, as addressed by current certification standards. Scores from the Leapfrog CPOE evaluation tool closely relate to actual rates of preventable ADE. Leapfrog testing may alert providers to potential vulnerabilities and highlight areas for further improvement.

  20. Expected measurement of the Z production rate with the CMS detector and simulation of the Tracker Laser Alignment System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thomas, Maarten

    2009-06-16

    The Large Hadron Collider is a two-ring, superconducting accelerator and collider which can provide both proton and heavy-ion beams. First collisions are foreseen for 2009. The Compact Muon System (CMS) detector will measure the particles created in the hadron collisions and can confirm the Standard Model by establishing the existence of the Higgs boson, but also search for new phenomena. In order to provide a robust and precise track reconstruction, which can already be used in the High-Level Trigger systems, the positions of the silicon sensors in the CMS tracker have to been known with an accuracy of O(100 {mu}m). Therefore the CMS tracker has been equipped with a dedicated alignment system. The Laser Alignment System (LAS) aligns the tracker subdetectors with respect to each other and can also monitor the stability of the sensor positions during data taking. This study describes the implementation of a realistic simulation of the LAS in the CMS software framework (CMSSW) as well as the analysis of the first data collected during the integration of one of the tracker endcaps. In the present study it has been found that the alignment of the endcaps is possible with an accuracy of approximately 76 {mu}m. These results are in agreement with independent measurements of the TEC geometry using cosmic muons or photogrammetry measurements. The accuracy of approximately 100 {mu}m needed for track pattern recognition and reconstruction can be assured by the Laser Alignment System as shown in this study. Accurate knowledge of the luminosity delivered by the LHC to the experiments is an essential ingredient for many physics studies. The present work uses the production of lepton pairs via the Drell-Yan mechanism to determine the integrated luminosity with the CMS detector. A Monte Carlo generator (MC rate at NLO) including next-to-leading order QCD diagrams has been used to generate Drell-Yan events decaying into two muons. After a full CMS detector simulation, the events

  1. Expected measurement of the Z production rate with the CMS detector and simulation of the Tracker Laser Alignment System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomas, Maarten

    2009-01-01

    The Large Hadron Collider is a two-ring, superconducting accelerator and collider which can provide both proton and heavy-ion beams. First collisions are foreseen for 2009. The Compact Muon System (CMS) detector will measure the particles created in the hadron collisions and can confirm the Standard Model by establishing the existence of the Higgs boson, but also search for new phenomena. In order to provide a robust and precise track reconstruction, which can already be used in the High-Level Trigger systems, the positions of the silicon sensors in the CMS tracker have to been known with an accuracy of O(100 μm). Therefore the CMS tracker has been equipped with a dedicated alignment system. The Laser Alignment System (LAS) aligns the tracker subdetectors with respect to each other and can also monitor the stability of the sensor positions during data taking. This study describes the implementation of a realistic simulation of the LAS in the CMS software framework (CMSSW) as well as the analysis of the first data collected during the integration of one of the tracker endcaps. In the present study it has been found that the alignment of the endcaps is possible with an accuracy of approximately 76 μm. These results are in agreement with independent measurements of the TEC geometry using cosmic muons or photogrammetry measurements. The accuracy of approximately 100 μm needed for track pattern recognition and reconstruction can be assured by the Laser Alignment System as shown in this study. Accurate knowledge of the luminosity delivered by the LHC to the experiments is an essential ingredient for many physics studies. The present work uses the production of lepton pairs via the Drell-Yan mechanism to determine the integrated luminosity with the CMS detector. A Monte Carlo generator (MC rate at NLO) including next-to-leading order QCD diagrams has been used to generate Drell-Yan events decaying into two muons. After a full CMS detector simulation, the events have

  2. Estimating rate of occurrence of rare events with empirical bayes: A railway application

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quigley, John; Bedford, Tim; Walls, Lesley

    2007-01-01

    Classical approaches to estimating the rate of occurrence of events perform poorly when data are few. Maximum likelihood estimators result in overly optimistic point estimates of zero for situations where there have been no events. Alternative empirical-based approaches have been proposed based on median estimators or non-informative prior distributions. While these alternatives offer an improvement over point estimates of zero, they can be overly conservative. Empirical Bayes procedures offer an unbiased approach through pooling data across different hazards to support stronger statistical inference. This paper considers the application of Empirical Bayes to high consequence low-frequency events, where estimates are required for risk mitigation decision support such as as low as reasonably possible. A summary of empirical Bayes methods is given and the choices of estimation procedures to obtain interval estimates are discussed. The approaches illustrated within the case study are based on the estimation of the rate of occurrence of train derailments within the UK. The usefulness of empirical Bayes within this context is discussed

  3. Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Igor V. Karyakin

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The 9th ARRCN Symposium 2015 was held during 21st–25th October 2015 at the Novotel Hotel, Chumphon, Thailand, one of the most favored travel destinations in Asia. The 10th ARRCN Symposium 2017 will be held during October 2017 in the Davao, Philippines. International Symposium on the Montagu's Harrier (Circus pygargus «The Montagu's Harrier in Europe. Status. Threats. Protection», organized by the environmental organization «Landesbund für Vogelschutz in Bayern e.V.» (LBV was held on November 20-22, 2015 in Germany. The location of this event was the city of Wurzburg in Bavaria.

  4. Detecting The Expected Rate of Return Volatility of Financing Instruments of Indonesian Islamic Banking through GARCH Modeling (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nurul Huda

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective - Islamic banks are banks which its activities, both fund raising and funds distribution are on the basis of Islamic principles, namely buying and selling and profit sharing. Islamic banking is aimed at supporting the implementation of national development in order to improve justice, togetherness, and equitable distribution of welfare. In pursuit of supporting the implementation of national development, Islamic banking often faced stability problems of financing instruments being operated. In this case, it is measured by the gap between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return. The individual actual RoR of this instrument will generate an expected rate of return. This raises the gap or difference between the actual rate of return and the expected rate of return of individual instruments, which in this case is called the abnormal rate of return. The stability of abnormal rate of return of individual instruments is certainly influenced by the stability of the expected rate of return. Expected rate of return has a volatility or fluctuation levels for each financing instrument. It is also a key element or material basis for the establishment of a variance of individual instruments. Variance in this case indicates the level of uncertainty of the rate of return. Individual variance is the origin of the instrument base for variance in the portfolio finance that further a portfolio analysis. So, this paper is going to analyze the level of expected RoR volatility as an initial step to see and predict the stability of the fluctuations in the rate of return of Indonesian Islamic financing instruments.Methods – Probability of Occurence, Expected Rate of Return (RoR and GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity.Results - The expected RoR volatility of the murabaha and istishna financing instruments tend to be more volatile than expected RoR volatility of musharaka and qardh financing instruments

  5. Question order sensitivity of subjective well-being measures: focus on life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy in survey instruments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sunghee; McClain, Colleen; Webster, Noah; Han, Saram

    2016-10-01

    This study examines the effect of question context created by order in questionnaires on three subjective well-being measures: life satisfaction, self-rated health, and subjective life expectancy. We conducted two Web survey experiments. The first experiment (n = 648) altered the order of life satisfaction and self-rated health: (1) life satisfaction asked immediately after self-rated health; (2) self-rated health immediately after life satisfaction; and (3) two items placed apart. We examined their correlation coefficient by experimental condition and further examined its interaction with objective health. The second experiment (n = 479) asked life expectancy before and after parental mortality questions. Responses to life expectancy were compared by order using ANOVA, and we examined interaction with parental mortality status using ANCOVA. Additionally, response time and probes were examined. Correlation coefficients between self-rated health and life satisfaction differed significantly by order: 0.313 (life satisfaction first), 0.508 (apart), and 0.643 (self-rated health first). Differences were larger among respondents with chronic conditions. Response times were the shortest when self-rated health was asked first. When life expectancy asked after parental mortality questions, respondents reported considering parents more for answering life expectancy; and respondents with deceased parents reported significantly lower expectancy, but not those whose parents were alive. Question context effects exist. Findings suggest placing life satisfaction and self-rated health apart to avoid artificial attenuation or inflation in their association. Asking about parental mortality prior to life expectancy appears advantageous as this leads respondents to consider parental longevity more, an important factor for true longevity.

  6. Compact Binary Mergers and the Event Rate of Fast Radio Bursts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xiao-Feng; Yu, Yun-Wei; Zhou, Xia

    2018-05-01

    Fast radio bursts (FRBs) are usually suggested to be associated with mergers of compact binaries consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), or black holes (BHs). We test these models by fitting the observational distributions in both redshift and isotropic energy of 22 Parkes FRBs, where, as usual, the rates of compact binary mergers (CBMs) are connected with cosmic star formation rates by a power-law distributed time delay. It is found that the observational distributions can well be produced by the CBM model with a characteristic delay time from several tens to several hundreds of megayears and an energy function index 1.2 ≲ γ ≲ 1.7, where a tentative fixed spectral index β = 0.8 is adopted for all FRBs. Correspondingly, the local event rate of FRBs is constrained to {(3{--}6)× {10}4{f}{{b}}-1({ \\mathcal T }/270{{s}})}-1{({ \\mathcal A }/2π )}-1 {Gpc}}-3 {yr}}-1 for an adopted minimum FRB energy of E min = 3 × 1039 erg, where f b is the beaming factor of the radiation, { \\mathcal T } is the duration of each pointing observation, and { \\mathcal A } is the sky area of the survey. This event rate, about an order of magnitude higher than the rates of NS–NS/NS–BH mergers, indicates that the most promising origin of FRBs in the CBM scenario could be mergers of WD–WD binaries. Here a massive WD could be produced since no FRB was found to be associated with an SN Ia. Alternatively, if all FRBs can repeat on a timescale much longer than the period of current observations, then they could also originate from a young active NS that forms from relatively rare NS–NS mergers and accretion-induced collapses of WD–WD binaries.

  7. Expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of osteoporotic fractures for 50-year old Chinese women: a discrete event simulation incorporating FRAX.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yawen; Ni, Weiyi

    2016-11-01

    This work was undertaken to provide an estimation of expected lifetime numbers, risks, and burden of fractures for 50-year-old Chinese women. A discrete event simulation model was developed to simulate the lifetime fractures of 50-year-old Chinese women at average risk of osteoporotic fracture. Main events in the model included hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture. Fracture risks were calculated using the FRAX ® tool. Simulations of 50-year-old Chinese women without fracture risks were also carried out as a comparison to determine the burden of fractures. A 50-year-old Chinese woman at average risk of fracture is expected to experience 0.135 (95 % CI: 0.134-0.137) hip fractures, 0.120 (95 % CI: 0.119-0.122) clinical vertebral fractures, 0.095 (95 % CI: 0.094-0.096) wrist fractures, 0.079 (95 % CI: 0.078-0.080) humerus fractures, and 0.407 (95 % CI: 0.404-0.410) other fractures over the remainder of her life. The residual lifetime risk of any fracture, hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture for a 50-year-old Chinese woman is 37.36, 11.77, 10.47, 8.61, 7.30, and 27.80 %, respectively. The fracture-attributable excess quality-adjusted life year (QALY) loss and lifetime costs are estimated at 0.11 QALYs (95 % CI: 0.00-0.22 QALYs) and US $714.61 (95 % CI: US $709.20-720.02), totaling a net monetary benefit loss of US $1,104.43 (95 % CI: US $904.09-1,304.78). Chinese women 50 years of age are at high risk of osteoporotic fracture, and the expected economic and quality-of-life burden attributable to osteoporotic fractures among Chinese women is substantial.

  8. Syncope During Competitive Events: Interrogating Heart Rate Monitor Watches May Be Useful!

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thabouillot, Oscar; Bostanci, Kevin; Bouvier, Francois; Dumitrescu, Nicolae; Stéfuriac, Maria; Paule, Philippe; Roche, Nicolas-Charles

    2017-12-01

    This is a case report of a 45-year-old man who reported complete amnesia during the very first kilometer of a 10-km run. He was wearing a heart rate monitor (HRM). The interrogation of his HRM watch showed 200 bpm tachycardia beginning in the first kilometer and increasing up to 220 bpm during the last kilometer. The patient was asked to wear a Holter-monitor (Holter Research Laboratory; Helena, Montana USA) electrocardiogram (ECG) while practicing a training session. This examination allowed for the diagnosis of an adrenergic paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) with an impressive auriculo-ventricular conduction over 260 bpm. This case highlights that non-medical devices, such as connected watches, can be helpful to diagnose arrhythmias. Thabouillot O , Bostanci K , Bouvier F , Dumitrescu N , Stéfuriac M , Paule P , Roche NC . Syncope during competitive events: interrogating heart rate monitor watches may be useful! Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(6):691-693.

  9. Direct risk standardisation: a new method for comparing casemix adjusted event rates using complex models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicholl, Jon; Jacques, Richard M; Campbell, Michael J

    2013-10-29

    Comparison of outcomes between populations or centres may be confounded by any casemix differences and standardisation is carried out to avoid this. However, when the casemix adjustment models are large and complex, direct standardisation has been described as "practically impossible", and indirect standardisation may lead to unfair comparisons. We propose a new method of directly standardising for risk rather than standardising for casemix which overcomes these problems. Using a casemix model which is the same model as would be used in indirect standardisation, the risk in individuals is estimated. Risk categories are defined, and event rates in each category for each centre to be compared are calculated. A weighted sum of the risk category specific event rates is then calculated. We have illustrated this method using data on 6 million admissions to 146 hospitals in England in 2007/8 and an existing model with over 5000 casemix combinations, and a second dataset of 18,668 adult emergency admissions to 9 centres in the UK and overseas and a published model with over 20,000 casemix combinations and a continuous covariate. Substantial differences between conventional directly casemix standardised rates and rates from direct risk standardisation (DRS) were found. Results based on DRS were very similar to Standardised Mortality Ratios (SMRs) obtained from indirect standardisation, with similar standard errors. Direct risk standardisation using our proposed method is as straightforward as using conventional direct or indirect standardisation, always enables fair comparisons of performance to be made, can use continuous casemix covariates, and was found in our examples to have similar standard errors to the SMR. It should be preferred when there is a risk that conventional direct or indirect standardisation will lead to unfair comparisons.

  10. Exploring the relationship between analgesic event rate and pain intensity in kidney stone surgery: A Repeated Time to Event Pilot Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul, Rasmus Vestergaard; Pedersen, Katja Venborg; Christrup, Lona Louring

    III-60 Rasmus Juul Exploring the relationship between analgesic event rate and pain intensity in kidney stone surgery: A Repeated Time to Event Pilot Study RV Juul(1), KV Pedersen(2, 4), LL Christrup(1), AE Olesen(1, 3), AM Drewes(3), PJS Osther(4), TM Lund(1) 1) Department of Drug Design...... a relationship with pain intensity has not yet been established. The aim of this pilot study was to discuss how best to investigate the relationship between RTTE hazard of analgesic events and pain intensity in postoperative pain. Methods: Data was available from 44 patients undergoing kidney stone surgery......). Gompertz and exponential distribution models were evaluated. Post-hoc linear mixed effect modelling was performed between estimated RTTE hazard and observed NRS using the lme4 package in R (3). Results: A Gompertz distribution model adequately described data, with a baseline event rate of 0.64h-1 (RSE 25...

  11. Indoor acrolein emission and decay rates resulting from domestic cooking events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, Vincent Y.; Bennett, Deborah H.; Cahill, Thomas M.

    2009-12-01

    Acrolein (2-propenal) is a common constituent of both indoor and outdoor air, can exacerbate asthma in children, and may contribute to other chronic lung diseases. Recent studies have found high indoor levels of acrolein and other carbonyls compared to outdoor ambient concentrations. Heated cooking oils produce considerable amounts of acrolein, thus cooking is likely an important source of indoor acrolein. A series of cooking experiments were conducted to determine the emission rates of acrolein and other volatile carbonyls for different types of cooking oils (canola, soybean, corn and olive oils) and deep-frying different food items. Similar concentrations and emission rates of carbonyls were found when different vegetable oils were used to deep-fry the same food product. The food item being deep-fried was generally not a significant source of carbonyls compared to the cooking oil. The oil cooking events resulted in high concentrations of acrolein that were in the range of 26.4-64.5 μg m -3. These concentrations exceed all the chronic regulatory exposure limits and many of the acute exposure limits. The air exchange rate and the decay rate of the carbonyls were monitored to estimate the half-life of the carbonyls. The half-life for acrolein was 14.4 ± 2.6 h, which indicates that indoor acrolein concentrations can persist for considerable time after cooking in poorly-ventilated homes.

  12. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  13. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C.K.; Ozgul, A.; Oli, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture–mark–recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  14. Wireless AE Event and Environmental Monitoring for Wind Turbine Blades at Low Sampling Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzid, Omar M.; Tian, Gui Y.; Cumanan, K.; Neasham, J.

    Integration of acoustic wireless technology in structural health monitoring (SHM) applications introduces new challenges due to requirements of high sampling rates, additional communication bandwidth, memory space, and power resources. In order to circumvent these challenges, this chapter proposes a novel solution through building a wireless SHM technique in conjunction with acoustic emission (AE) with field deployment on the structure of a wind turbine. This solution requires a low sampling rate which is lower than the Nyquist rate. In addition, features extracted from aliased AE signals instead of reconstructing the original signals on-board the wireless nodes are exploited to monitor AE events, such as wind, rain, strong hail, and bird strike in different environmental conditions in conjunction with artificial AE sources. Time feature extraction algorithm, in addition to the principal component analysis (PCA) method, is used to extract and classify the relevant information, which in turn is used to classify or recognise a testing condition that is represented by the response signals. This proposed novel technique yields a significant data reduction during the monitoring process of wind turbine blades.

  15. Subjective Health Complaints and Self-Rated Health: Are Expectancies More Important Than Socioeconomic Status and Workload?

    OpenAIRE

    Ree, Eline; Odeen, Magnus; Eriksen, Hege R.; Indahl, Aage; Ihlebæk, Camilla; Hetland, Jørn; Harris, Anette

    2013-01-01

    Background The associations between socioeconomic status (SES), physical and psychosocial workload and health are well documented. According to The Cognitive Activation Theory of Stress (CATS), learned response outcome expectancies (coping, helplessness, and hopelessness) are also important contributors to health. This is in part as independent factors for health, but coping may also function as a buffer against the impact different demands have on health. Purpose The purpose of this study...

  16. Event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major complications of diabetes: a multicountry comparative analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip M Clarke

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes imposes a substantial burden globally in terms of premature mortality, morbidity, and health care costs. Estimates of economic outcomes associated with diabetes are essential inputs to policy analyses aimed at prevention and treatment of diabetes. Our objective was to estimate and compare event rates, hospital utilization, and costs associated with major diabetes-related complications in high-, middle-, and low-income countries.Incidence and history of diabetes-related complications, hospital admissions, and length of stay were recorded in 11,140 patients with type 2 diabetes participating in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease (ADVANCE study (mean age at entry 66 y. The probability of hospital utilization and number of days in hospital for major events associated with coronary disease, cerebrovascular disease, congestive heart failure, peripheral vascular disease, and nephropathy were estimated for three regions (Asia, Eastern Europe, and Established Market Economies using multiple regression analysis. The resulting estimates of days spent in hospital were multiplied by regional estimates of the costs per hospital bed-day from the World Health Organization to compute annual acute and long-term costs associated with the different types of complications. To assist, comparability, costs are reported in international dollars (Int$, which represent a hypothetical currency that allows for the same quantities of goods or services to be purchased regardless of country, standardized on purchasing power in the United States. A cost calculator accompanying this paper enables the estimation of costs for individual countries and translation of these costs into local currency units. The probability of attending a hospital following an event was highest for heart failure (93%-96% across regions and lowest for nephropathy (15%-26%. The average numbers of days in hospital given at least one admission were greatest for stroke (17-32 d across

  17. 2Kx2K resolution element photon counting MCP sensor with >200 kHz event rate capability

    CERN Document Server

    Vallerga, J V

    2000-01-01

    Siegmund Scientific undertook a NASA Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) contract to develop a versatile, high-performance photon (or particle) counting detector combining recent technical advances in all aspects of Microchannel Plate (MCP) detector development in a low cost, commercially viable package that can support a variety of applications. The detector concept consists of a set of MCPs whose output electron pulses are read out with a crossed delay line (XDL) anode and associated high-speed event encoding electronics. The delay line anode allows high-resolution photon event centroiding at very high event rates and can be scaled to large formats (>40 mm) while maintaining good linearity and high temporal stability. The optimal sensitivity wavelength range is determined by the choice of opaque photocathodes. Specific achievements included: spatial resolution of 200 000 events s sup - sup 1; local rates of >100 events s sup - sup 1 per resolution element; event timing of <1 ns; and low background ...

  18. Soft error rate analysis methodology of multi-Pulse-single-event transients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Bin; Huo Mingxue; Xiao Liyi

    2012-01-01

    As transistor feature size scales down, soft errors in combinational logic because of high-energy particle radiation is gaining more and more concerns. In this paper, a combinational logic soft error analysis methodology considering multi-pulse-single-event transients (MPSETs) and re-convergence with multi transient pulses is proposed. In the proposed approach, the voltage pulse produced at the standard cell output is approximated by a triangle waveform, and characterized by three parameters: pulse width, the transition time of the first edge, and the transition time of the second edge. As for the pulse with the amplitude being smaller than the supply voltage, the edge extension technique is proposed. Moreover, an efficient electrical masking model comprehensively considering transition time, delay, width and amplitude is proposed, and an approach using the transition times of two edges and pulse width to compute the amplitude of pulse is proposed. Finally, our proposed firstly-independently-propagating-secondly-mutually-interacting (FIP-SMI) is used to deal with more practical re-convergence gate with multi transient pulses. As for MPSETs, a random generation model of MPSETs is exploratively proposed. Compared to the estimates obtained using circuit level simulations by HSpice, our proposed soft error rate analysis algorithm has 10% errors in SER estimation with speed up of 300 when the single-pulse-single-event transient (SPSET) is considered. We have also demonstrated the runtime and SER decrease with the increment of P0 using designs from the ISCAS-85 benchmarks. (authors)

  19. Experimental study of divertor plasma-facing components damage under a combination of pulsed and quasi-stationary heat loads relevant to expected transient events at ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klimov, N S; Podkovyrov, V L; Kovalenko, D V; Zhitlukhin, A M; Barsuk, V A; Mazul, I V; Giniyatulin, R N; Kuznetsov, V Ye; Riccardi, B; Loarte, A; Merola, M; Koidan, V S; Linke, J; Landman, I S; Pestchanyi, S E; Bazylev, B N

    2011-01-01

    This paper concerns the experimental study of damage of ITER divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) under a combination of pulsed plasma heat loads (representative of controlled ITER type I edge-localized modes (ELMs)) and quasi-stationary heat loads (representative of the high heat flux (HHF) thermal fatigue expected during ITER normal operations and slow transient events). The PFC's tungsten armor damage under pulsed plasma exposure was driven by (i) the melt layer motion, which leads to bridges formation between neighboring tiles and (ii) the W brittle failure giving rise to a stable crack pattern on the exposed surface. The crack width reaches a saturation value that does not exceed some tens of micrometers after several hundreds of ELM-like pulses. HHF thermal fatigue tests have shown (i) a peeling-off of the re-solidified material due to its brittle failure and (ii) a significant widening (up to 10 times) of the cracks and the formation of additional cracks.

  20. The National Bank of Ukraine Communication Strategy Optimization within the Framework of Impact on Exchange Rate Expectations of Economic Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roksolana Holub

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. Communication enables influence of the volatility of financial markets, improvement of the predictability of monetary policy, and helps to achieve macroeconomic objectives. Nevertheless, as of today, consensus on the issue into what the optimal strategy of the central bank communication is has not been reached, either in Ukraine, nor in developed countries yet. Considering the abovementioned, the methodical approaches to improve the central bank’s communication strategies, based on the use of its verbal interventions in the context of smoothing out excessive cyclical volatility of exchange rates of the national currency, are determined in this article. It is suggested to consider the growth of the factor “information signal/information noise” as a criterion of the central bank’s optimal communication strategy. It is proved that the monetary regulator’s main task should be the continual provision of information concerning a fundamentally justified level of the exchange rate and the level of deviation of the actual rate of the national currency from its fundamental-equilibrium level, as of a given time, to the national foreign exchange market participants. The methodological approach to the improvement of information support of forecasting fundamentally specified value of the national currency is outlined.

  1. Comparison of brand versus generic antiepileptic drug adverse event reporting rates in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System (FAERS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, Md Motiur; Alatawi, Yasser; Cheng, Ning; Qian, Jingjing; Plotkina, Annya V; Peissig, Peggy L; Berg, Richard L; Page, David; Hansen, Richard A

    2017-09-01

    Despite the cost saving role of generic anti-epileptic drugs (AEDs), debate exists as to whether generic substitution of branded AEDs may lead to therapeutic failure and increased toxicity. This study compared adverse event (AE) reporting rates for brand vs. authorized generic (AG) vs. generic AEDs. Since AGs are pharmaceutically identical to brand but perceived as generics, the generic vs. AG comparison minimized potential bias against generics. Events reported to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System between January 2004 to March 2015 with lamotrigine, carbamazepine, and oxcarbazepine listed as primary or secondary suspect were classified as brand, generic, or AG based on the manufacturer. Disproportionality analyses using the reporting odds ratio (ROR) assessed the relative rate of reporting of labeled AEs compared to reporting these events with all other drugs. The Breslow-Day statistic compared RORs across brand, AG, and other generics using a Bonferroni-corrected Pbrand and generics for all three drugs of interest (Breslow-Day Pbrands and generics have similar reporting rates after accounting for generic perception biases. Disproportional suicide reporting was observed for generics compared with AGs and brand, although this finding needs further study. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. The effect of sporting events on emergency department attendance rates in a district general hospital in Northern Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGreevy, A; Millar, L; Murphy, B; Davison, G W; Brown, R; O'Donnell, M E

    2010-10-01

    Previous studies have reported a conflicting relationship between the effect of live and televised sporting events on attendance rates to emergency departments (ED). The objectives of this study were to investigate the relationship of major sporting events on emergency department attendance rates and to determine the potential effects of such events on service provision. A retrospective analysis of ED attendances to a district general hospital (DGH) and subsequent admissions over a 24-h period following live and televised sporting activities was performed over a 5-year period. Data were compiled from the hospital's emergency record books including the number of attendances, patient demographics, clinical complaint and outcome. Review patients were excluded. Analysis of sporting events was compiled for live local, regional and national events as well as world-wide televised sporting broadcasts. A total of 137,668 (80,445 men) patients attended from April 2002 to July 2007. Mean attendance rate per day was 80 patients (men = 47). Mean admission rate was 13.6 patients per day. Major sporting events during the study period included; Soccer: 4 FA Cup and 1 World Cup (WC) finals; Rugby: 47 Six Nations, 25 Six nations games involving Ireland, 1 WC final, 2 WC semi-finals, 2 WC quarter-finals and 4 WC games involving Ireland; and Gaelic Football [Gaelic Athletic Association (GAA)]: 5 All-Ireland finals, 11 semi-finals, 11 quarter-finals and 5 provincial finals. There was a significantly higher patient admission rate during the soccer FA Cup final, Rugby Six Nations and games involving Ireland and for GAA semi- and quarter-final games (p = 0.001-0.01). There was no difference identified in total attendance or non-admission rates for sporting events throughout the study period. Although there was no correlation identified between any of these sporting events and total emergency department attendances (r 0.07), multinomial logistic regression demonstrated that FA Cup final (p

  3. Prevalent Rate of Nonalbuminuric Renal Insufficiency and Its Association with Cardiovascular Disease Event in Korean Type 2 Diabetes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hye Won Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available BackgroundNonalbuminuric renal insufficiency is a unique category of diabetic kidney diseases. The objectives of the study were to evaluate prevalent rate of nonalbuminuric renal insufficiency and to investigate its relationship with previous cardiovascular disease (CVD event in Korean patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM.MethodsLaboratory and clinical data of 1,067 subjects with T2DM were obtained and reviewed. Study subjects were allocated into four subgroups according to the CKD classification. Major CVD events were included with coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular events.ResultsNonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, when compared with albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group, had shorter diabetic duration, lower concentrations of glycated hemoglobin, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, lower prevalent rates of retinopathy and previous CVD, and higher rate of treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin II receptor blockers. Nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group showed a greater association with prior CVD events than no CKD group; however, albuminuric stage ≥3 CKD group made addition to increase prevalence of prior CVD events significantly when CKD categories were applied as covariates. Association of prior CVD events, when compared with normal estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, became significant for declined eGFR, which was higher for eGFR of <30 mL/min/1.73 m2, and albuminuria.ConclusionThe results show that subjects with nonalbuminuric stage ≥3 CKD is significantly interrelated with occurrence of prior CVD events than those with normal eGFR with or without albuminuria. Comparing with normal eGFR and nonalbuminuria categories, the combination of increased degree of albuminuria and declined eGFR is becoming significant for the association of prior CVD events.

  4. Next-to-next-leading order correction to 3-jet rate and event-shape ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    portunity to test QCD by measuring the energy dependence of different ... event shape data was not satisfactory largely due to the scale uncertainty of the pertur- .... )3 d ¯C dy. + O. ( α4 s. ) . (5). Here the event-shape distribution is normalized to the ..... [1] A Gehrmann-De Ridder, T Gehrmann, E W N Glover and G Heinrich, J.

  5. The effect of whole-blood donor adverse events on blood donor return rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Bruce H; Newman, Daniel T; Ahmad, Raffat; Roth, Arthur J

    2006-08-01

    Some blood donation-related adverse events (AEs) can negatively impact the blood donor return rate (BDRR) and decrease donor retention. One-thousand randomly selected whole-blood donors were interviewed 3 weeks after a 525-mL index whole-blood donation for seven AEs. The number of return visits and duration of follow-up were recorded for each of the 1000 donors. A negative binomial regression analysis was used to determine the contribution of the four most common AEs to the BDRR, and interactions between these AEs were also evaluated. The four most common AEs were bruise alone (15.1%), sore arm "alone" (7.0%), fatigue "alone" (5.1%), and donor reaction "alone" (4.2%), where "alone" is defined to also include donors who had a bruise but no other AE. The estimated BDRR for donations without AEs was 1.32 visits per year. The estimated BDRRs for the four most common AEs were: bruise alone, 1.32 visits per year; sore arm alone, 1.30 visits per year (2% reduction in BDRR); fatigue alone, 1.06 visits per year (20% reduction in BDRR); and donor reaction alone, 0.87 visits per year (34% reduction in BDRR). The BDRR for donor reaction, fatigue, and sore arm together was 0.20 visits per year (85% reduction in BDRR). Donor reaction had the most negative impact on the BDRR. There appears to be a synergistic effect between donor reaction, fatigue, and sore arm. Theoretically, amelioration of some AEs has the potential to improve BDRRs.

  6. General programmable Level-1 trigger with 3D-Flow assembly system for calorimeters of different sizes and event rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crosetto, D.

    1992-12-01

    Experience demonstrates that fine tuning on the trigger of an experiment is often achieved only after running the experiment and analyzing the first data acquired. It is desirable that identification and, consequently, selection of interesting events be made on a more refined identification of particles. Use of an innovative parallel-processing system architecture together with an instruction set allows identification of objects (particles) among the data coming from a calorimeter in a programmable manner, utilizing the information related to their shape in two- or three-dimensional form, rather than applying only a programmable threshold proportional to their energy. The architecture is flexible, allowing execution of simple algorithms as well as complex pattern recognition algorithms. It is scalable in the sense that the same hardware can be used for small or large calorimeters having a slow or fast event rate. The simple printed circuit board (accommodating 16 x 3D-Flow processors) on a 4 in. x 4 in. board described herein uses the same hardware to build a large Level-1 programmable trigger (by interconnecting many boards in a matrix array) and is capable of implementing simple or complex pattern recognition algorithms at different event input rates (by cascading boards one on top of another). With the same hardware one can build low-cost, programmable Level-1 triggers for a small and low-event-rate calorimeter, or high-performance, programmable Level-1 triggers for a large calorimeter capable of sustaining up to 60 million events per second

  7. Systematic review of reporting rates of adverse events following immunization: an international comparison of post-marketing surveillance programs with reference to China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Biao; Page, Andrew; Wang, Huaqing; Taylor, Richard; McIntyre, Peter

    2013-01-11

    China is the most populous country in the world, with an annual birth cohort of approximately 16 million, requiring an average of 500 million vaccine doses administered annually. In China, over 30 domestic and less than 10 overseas vaccine manufacturers supply over 60 licensed vaccine products, representing a growing vaccine market mainly due to recent additions to the national immunization schedule, but data on post-marketing surveillance for adverse events following immunization (AEFI) are sparse. To compare reporting rates for various categories of AEFI from China with other routine post-marketing surveillance programs internationally. Systematic review of published studies reporting rates of AEFI by vaccine, category of reaction and age from post-marketing surveillance systems in English and Chinese languages. Overall AEFI reporting rates (all vaccines, all ages) in Chinese studies were consistent with those from similar international studies elsewhere, but there was substantial heterogeneity in regional reporting rates in China (range 2.3-37.8/100,000 doses). The highest AEFI reporting rates were for diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis whole-cell (DTwP) and acellular (DTaP) vaccines (range 3.3-181.1/100,000 doses for DTwP; range 3.5-92.6/100,000 doses for DTaP), with higher median rates for DTwP than DTaP, and higher than expected rates for DTaP vaccine. Similar higher rates for DTwP and DTaP containing vaccines, and relatively lower rates for vaccines against hepatitis B virus, poliovirus, and Japanese encephalitis virus were found in China and elsewhere in the world. Overall AEFI reporting rates in China were consistent with similar post-marketing surveillance systems in other countries. Sources of regional heterogeneity in AEFI reporting rates, and their relationships to differing vaccine manufacturers versus differing surveillance practices, require further exploration. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Tracking Real-Time Changes in Working Memory Updating and Gating with the Event-Based Eye-Blink Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rac-Lubashevsky, R.; Slagter, H.A.; Kessler, Y.

    2017-01-01

    Effective working memory (WM) functioning depends on the gating process that regulates the balance between maintenance and updating of WM. The present study used the event-based eye-blink rate (ebEBR), which presumably reflects phasic striatal dopamine activity, to examine how the cognitive

  9. The Female Population Growth Projection Year 2021 in Trenggalek Regency by Leslie Matrix Model on the Birth Rate and Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dewi Anggreini

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to determine the number of female residents in Trenggalek Regency in 2021 based on data on birth rate and life expectancy. The use of eigenvalues and eigenvectors aims to determine the dividing age distribution by Leslie matrix model. The eigenvectors are used to determine the number of female populations of each age interval, while the eigenvalues are used to determine population growth rates. The research method used is to determine the subject of research. The next stage is to collect research data, then analyze the data and last draw conclusions. The research data is obtained from BPS Kabupaten Trenggalek and BPS East Java Province that is data of woman population from year 2010-2015. The result of this research using Leslie matrix model for female population in Trenggalek Regency that is discrete model. The discrete model is divided into fourteen age intervals constructed using the birthrate and life expectancy. The conclusions of the study showed that the number of female population in Trenggalek Regency tended to increase with positive eigen value greater than one. In other words, the growth rate of female population in Trenggalek Regency tends to be positive. The success of Leslie's matrix model is the application of case studies in predicting the number of female populations in Trenggalek District by 2021 using the MAPLE 16 Program.

  10. Robust event-triggered MPC with guaranteed asymptotic bound and average sampling rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunner, F.D.; Heemels, W.P.M.H.; Allgower, F.

    2017-01-01

    We propose a robust event-triggered model predictive control (MPC) scheme for linear time-invariant discrete-time systems subject to bounded additive stochastic disturbances and hard constraints on the input and state. For given probability distributions of the disturbances acting on the system, we

  11. Next-to-next-leading order correction to 3-jet rate and event-shape ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The coupling constant, , was measured by two different methods: first by employing the three-jet observables. Combining all the data, the value of as at next-to-next leading order (NNLO) was determined to be 0.117 ± 0.004(hard) ± 0.006(theo). Secondly, from the event-shape distributions, the strong coupling constant, ...

  12. Fertility of Czech Females Could Be Lower than Expected: Trends in Future Development of Age-Specific Fertility Rates up to the Year 2050

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondřej Šimpach

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Fertility is an essential aspect of reproduction or population replacement of each country. The challenge for demographers is to model fertility and also to estimate its potential future level for the purposes of population projections. In the case of the Czech Republic we have the population projections provided by the Czech Statistical Office (CZSO with overlooking of the total fertility rate in low, medium and high variant. These estimates despite being based on expert judgments, seem to be too positive compared to the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates. The aim of this paper is to assess the situation of fertility in the Czech Republic, to analyse the past development of the time series of age-specific fertility rates using one-dimensional Box-Jenkins models and multidimensional stochastic Lee-Carter approach. Together with found trend in time series and principal components estimated by Lee-Carter’s model a forecasts of age-specific fertility rates up to the year 2050 is constructed. Th ese rates are lower than those provided by CZSO in its three variants of the Czech Republic’s population projection, and therefore we discuss the causes at the end of the paper. We would like to point out that the potential future development of Czech females fertility could be lower than which are currently expected.

  13. Development and validation of a Thai stressful life events rating scale for patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic methamphetamine abuse

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ek-uma Imkome

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to psychometrically test a Thai Stressful Life Events Rating Scale (TSLERS. Factor analysis was done on data collected from 313 patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse in Thailand from April to May, 2015. Results identified the following problems impacting physical and mental health: social relationship and social concerns, money, family life, life security, and career. Evaluation of the psychometric scale properties demonstrated acceptable validity and reliability. TSLERS provided scientific and empirical data about stressful life events of patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse, and was suitable for stress detection and suggesting further innovations.

  14. A video event trigger for high frame rate, high resolution video technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Glenn L.

    1991-12-01

    When video replaces film the digitized video data accumulates very rapidly, leading to a difficult and costly data storage problem. One solution exists for cases when the video images represent continuously repetitive 'static scenes' containing negligible activity, occasionally interrupted by short events of interest. Minutes or hours of redundant video frames can be ignored, and not stored, until activity begins. A new, highly parallel digital state machine generates a digital trigger signal at the onset of a video event. High capacity random access memory storage coupled with newly available fuzzy logic devices permits the monitoring of a video image stream for long term or short term changes caused by spatial translation, dilation, appearance, disappearance, or color change in a video object. Pretrigger and post-trigger storage techniques are then adaptable for archiving the digital stream from only the significant video images.

  15. Sample Size Estimation for Negative Binomial Regression Comparing Rates of Recurrent Events with Unequal Follow-Up Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongqiang

    2015-01-01

    A sample size formula is derived for negative binomial regression for the analysis of recurrent events, in which subjects can have unequal follow-up time. We obtain sharp lower and upper bounds on the required size, which is easy to compute. The upper bound is generally only slightly larger than the required size, and hence can be used to approximate the sample size. The lower and upper size bounds can be decomposed into two terms. The first term relies on the mean number of events in each group, and the second term depends on two factors that measure, respectively, the extent of between-subject variability in event rates, and follow-up time. Simulation studies are conducted to assess the performance of the proposed method. An application of our formulae to a multiple sclerosis trial is provided.

  16. The impact of post-event information on study-related memories: an exploration of the roles of judgemental anchoring, specific expectations about change, and motivational influences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sedlmeier, Peter; Jaeger, Sonia

    2007-01-01

    We explored how well common theories about the impact of post-event information on memories explain recollections that occur naturally in university students' study routines. Instead of starting from a familiar research paradigm, such as those used in hindsight-bias research, the present study used a situation common to university students, and examined how well three candidate explanations--judgemental anchoring, implicit theories of change, and motivational influences--could explain the results we obtained in a long-term memory study that included three sessions, six months apart. We found that about two thirds of the memories of study-related issues were indeed biased, and that the impact of post-event information being used as an anchor is the most plausible explanation for the results. There were also some indications that memory biases might have been due, at least in part, to motivational factors.

  17. Do co-intoxicants increase adverse event rates in the first 24 hours in patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirakbari, Seyed Mostafa; Innes, Grant D; Christenson, Jim; Tilley, Jessica; Wong, Hubert

    2003-01-01

    Patients frequently arrive in emergency departments (EDs) after being resuscitated from opioid overdose. Autopsy studies suggest that multidrug intoxication is a major risk factor for adverse outcomes after acute heroin overdose in patients. If this is true, there may be high-risk drug combinations that identify patients who require more intensive monitoring and prolonged observation. Our objective was to determine the impact of co-intoxication with alcohol, cocaine, or CNS depressant drugs on short-term adverse event rates in patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose. Data were extracted from the database of a prospective opioid overdose cohort study conducted between May 1997 and 1999. Patients were prospectively enrolled if they received naloxone for presumed opioid overdose. Investigators gathered clinical, demographic, and other predictor variables, including co-intoxicants used. Patients were followed to identify prespecified adverse outcome events occurring within 24 h, and multiple logistic regression was used to determine the association of concomitant drug use on short-term adverse event rates. Of 1155 patients studied, 58 (5%) had pure opioid overdose and 922 (80%) reported co-intoxicants, including alcohol, cocaine, and CNS depressants. Overall, out of 1056 patients with known outcome status there were 123 major adverse events (11.6%) and 194 minor adverse events (18.4%). After adjustment for age, gender, HIV status, cardiovascular disease, pulmonary disease and diabetes, we found that coadministration of alcohol, cocaine, or CNS depressants, alone or in combination, was not associated with increased risk of death or adverse events during the 24 h follow-up period. In patients resuscitated from acute opioid overdose, short-term outcomes are similar for patients with pure opioid overdose and multidrug intoxications. A history of cointoxication cannot be used to identify high-risk patients who require more intensive ED monitoring or prolonged

  18. Age-specific vibrissae growth rates: a tool for determining the timing of ecologically important events in Steller sea lions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rea, L.D.; Christ, A.M.; Hayden, A.B.; Stegall, V.K.; Farley, S.D.; Stricker, Craig A.; Mellish, J.E.; Maniscalco, John M.; Waite, J.N.; Burkanov, V.N.; Pitcher, K.W.

    2015-01-01

    Steller sea lions (SSL; Eumetopias jubatus) grow their vibrissae continually, providing a multiyear record suitable for ecological and physiological studies based on stable isotopes. An accurate age-specific vibrissae growth rate is essential for registering a chronology along the length of the record, and for interpreting the timing of ecologically important events. We utilized four methods to estimate the growth rate of vibrissae in fetal, rookery pup, young-of-the-year (YOY), yearling, subadult, and adult SSL. The majority of vibrissae were collected from SSL live-captured in Alaska and Russia between 2000 and 2013 (n = 1,115), however, vibrissae were also collected from six adult SSL found dead on haul-outs and rookeries during field excursions to increase the sample size of this underrepresented age group. Growth rates of vibrissae were generally slower in adult (0.44 ± 0.15 cm/mo) and subadult (0.61 ± 0.10 cm/mo) SSL than in YOY (0.87 ± 0.28 cm/mo) and fetal (0.73 ± 0.05 cm/mo) animals, but there was high individual variability in these growth rates within each age group. Some variability in vibrissae growth rates was attributed to the somatic growth rate of YOY sea lions between capture events (P = 0.014, r2 = 0.206, n = 29).

  19. America's Stonehenge, (A.S.), As a Prototype For Expected Phenomena At ``The" Stonehenge, and Also For Psychophysical Events and Native American ``Manitou."

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLeod, Edward M.; McLeod, Roger D.

    2001-11-01

    All ``Stonehenge-type" constructions will have some equivalent of the blue-light beams detectable at A.S. This conjecture includes even the pyramids of Egypt, North, Central and South America. Related apparitions at A.S. are like phenomena at Rumford, ME, and elsewhere. They seem to have been like the precursor events in the experience of the late psychiatrist Arthur Guirdham, and perhaps also of C.G. Jung. Our investigations may indicate they and others could be mistaken about reincarnation beliefs. ``Manitou," where they occur, perhaps were not regarded as ``holy" ghosts, and seem to have implied a specific and conscious awareness of the modern-day equivalent of an applied, practical science. This can perhaps be categorized as signals generated by geophysical events. By this world-view, from events like those at A.S., in Maine, and elsewhere, the equivalent modern descriptor would be that there are no “ghosts", or haunted houses, or TV's which tip over by their influence --- there is only causative electromagnetic field!

  20. Semiquantitative SPECT myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole in patients unable to exercise. Event rate during 4 years of follow up

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balestrini, V.R.; Arja, V.J.; Sandrin, A.L.; Calvo, G.R.; Gomez Bosh, Z.; Quiroga, W.; Balestrini, C.E.; Joekes, S.

    2002-01-01

    The increasingly numbers of patients (P) that can't reach an adequate level of exercise in order to evaluate CAD, lead us to use pharmacological and technical tools available for this subgroup of P. Aim: evaluate the prognostic significance of myocardial perfusion SPECT imaging with pharmacological stress in P without LBBB, unable to exercise. Material and Methods: 209 P were included. Mean age: 65 years old (39-88), male 66%. Clinical: Pre test likelihood 8: 28%; SDS 0 and SRS 0: 31.7%; SDS 0 + SRS >=1: 21%; SDS >=1: 47.3%. III) Follow up: 13 patients were early re-vascularized induced by SPECT study results, 10 patients get lost and 186 were follow up by a mean 1086 days. Cumulative events rate: 1st year SCE 9.7%, HCE 1.6%; 2nd year SCE 14%, HCE 4.3%; 3rd year SCE 17.7%, HCE 5.4%; 4th year SCE 21%, HCE 5,4%. Scintigraphic indices and events rate relationship are presented. Conclusion: There was a relationship between scintigraphic indices and hard cardiac events. The semiquantitative myocardial perfusion with dipyridamole stress was a safe test and useful to discriminate groups of P with different risk of events

  1. Boarding is associated with higher rates of medication delays and adverse events but fewer laboratory-related delays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sri-On, Jiraporn; Chang, Yuchiao; Curley, David P; Camargo, Carlos A; Weissman, Joel S; Singer, Sara J; Liu, Shan W

    2014-09-01

    Hospital crowding and emergency department (ED) boarding are large and growing problems. To date, there has been a paucity of information regarding the quality of care received by patients boarding in the ED compared with the care received by patients on an inpatient unit. We compared the rate of delays and adverse events at the event level that occur while boarding in the ED vs while on an inpatient unit. This study was a secondary analysis of data from medical record review and administrative databases at 2 urban academic teaching hospitals from August 1, 2004, through January 31, 2005. We measured delayed repeat cardiac enzymes, delayed partial thromboplastin time level checks, delayed antibiotic administration, delayed administration of home medications, and adverse events. We compared the incidence of events during ED boarding vs while on an inpatient unit. Among 1431 patient medical records, we identified 1016 events. Emergency department boarding was associated with an increased risk of home medication delays (risk ratio [RR], 1.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.26-1.88), delayed antibiotic administration (RR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.72-3.52), and adverse events (RR, 2.36; 95% CI, 1.15-4.72). On the contrary, ED boarding was associated with fewer delays in repeat cardiac enzymes (RR, 0.17; 95% CI, 0.09-0.27) and delayed partial thromboplastin time checks (RR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.27-0.96). Compared with inpatient units, ED boarding was associated with more medication-related delays and adverse events but fewer laboratory-related delays. Until we can eliminate ED boarding, it is critical to identify areas for improvement. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  3. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  4. A Generalized Approach to Model the Spectra and Radiation Dose Rate of Solar Particle Events on the Surface of Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jingnan; Zeitlin, Cary; Wimmer-Schweingruber, Robert F.; McDole, Thoren; Kühl, Patrick; Appel, Jan C.; Matthiä, Daniel; Krauss, Johannes; Köhler, Jan

    2018-01-01

    For future human missions to Mars, it is important to study the surface radiation environment during extreme and elevated conditions. In the long term, it is mainly galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) modulated by solar activity that contribute to the radiation on the surface of Mars, but intense solar energetic particle (SEP) events may induce acute health effects. Such events may enhance the radiation level significantly and should be detected as immediately as possible to prevent severe damage to humans and equipment. However, the energetic particle environment on the Martian surface is significantly different from that in deep space due to the influence of the Martian atmosphere. Depending on the intensity and shape of the original solar particle spectra, as well as particle types, the surface spectra may induce entirely different radiation effects. In order to give immediate and accurate alerts while avoiding unnecessary ones, it is important to model and well understand the atmospheric effect on the incoming SEPs, including both protons and helium ions. In this paper, we have developed a generalized approach to quickly model the surface response of any given incoming proton/helium ion spectra and have applied it to a set of historical large solar events, thus providing insights into the possible variety of surface radiation environments that may be induced during SEP events. Based on the statistical study of more than 30 significant solar events, we have obtained an empirical model for estimating the surface dose rate directly from the intensities of a power-law SEP spectra.

  5. Event-Associated Oxygen Consumption Rate Increases ca. Five-Fold When Interictal Activity Transforms into Seizure-Like Events In Vitro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl Schoknecht

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Neuronal injury due to seizures may result from a mismatch of energy demand and adenosine triphosphate (ATP synthesis. However, ATP demand and oxygen consumption rates have not been accurately determined, yet, for different patterns of epileptic activity, such as interictal and ictal events. We studied interictal-like and seizure-like epileptiform activity induced by the GABAA antagonist bicuculline alone, and with co-application of the M-current blocker XE-991, in rat hippocampal slices. Metabolic changes were investigated based on recording partial oxygen pressure, extracellular potassium concentration, and intracellular flavine adenine dinucleotide (FAD redox potential. Recorded data were used to calculate oxygen consumption and relative ATP consumption rates, cellular ATP depletion, and changes in FAD/FADH2 ratio by applying a reactive-diffusion and a two compartment metabolic model. Oxygen-consumption rates were ca. five times higher during seizure activity than interictal activity. Additionally, ATP consumption was higher during seizure activity (~94% above control than interictal activity (~15% above control. Modeling of FAD transients based on partial pressure of oxygen recordings confirmed increased energy demand during both seizure and interictal activity and predicted actual FAD autofluorescence recordings, thereby validating the model. Quantifying metabolic alterations during epileptiform activity has translational relevance as it may help to understand the contribution of energy supply and demand mismatches to seizure-induced injury.

  6. On the merging rates of envelope-deprived components of binary systems which can give rise to supernova events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tornambe, Amedo

    1989-01-01

    We derive theoretical rates of mergings of envelope-deprived components of binary systems, which can give rise to supernova events. The effects of the various assumptions one is forced to make on the physical properties of the progenitor system and of its evolutionary behaviour through common envelope phases are discussed. Four cases have been analysed: CO-CO, He-CO, He-He double degenerate mergings and He star-CO dwarf merging. (author)

  7. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool

    OpenAIRE

    Deilk?s, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstr?m, Jonas Christoffer; Nyl?n, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-01-01

    Objectives: In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). Design: All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, exc...

  8. Development and validation of a Thai stressful life events rating scale for patients with a diagnosis of schizophrenic methamphetamine abuse

    OpenAIRE

    Ek-uma Imkome; JintanaYunibhand; Waraporn Chaiyawat

    2017-01-01

    This study aimed to psychometrically test a Thai Stressful Life Events Rating Scale (TSLERS). Factor analysis was done on data collected from 313 patients with schizophrenia and methamphetamine abuse in Thailand from April to May, 2015. Results identified the following problems impacting physical and mental health: social relationship and social concerns, money, family life, life security, and career. Evaluation of the psychometric scale properties demonstrated acceptable validity ...

  9. Micro-foundation using percolation theory of the finite time singular behavior of the crash hazard rate in a class of rational expectation bubbles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seyrich, Maximilian; Sornette, Didier

    2016-04-01

    We present a plausible micro-founded model for the previously postulated power law finite time singular form of the crash hazard rate in the Johansen-Ledoit-Sornette (JLS) model of rational expectation bubbles. The model is based on a percolation picture of the network of traders and the concept that clusters of connected traders share the same opinion. The key ingredient is the notion that a shift of position from buyer to seller of a sufficiently large group of traders can trigger a crash. This provides a formula to estimate the crash hazard rate by summation over percolation clusters above a minimum size of a power sa (with a>1) of the cluster sizes s, similarly to a generalized percolation susceptibility. The power sa of cluster sizes emerges from the super-linear dependence of group activity as a function of group size, previously documented in the literature. The crash hazard rate exhibits explosive finite time singular behaviors when the control parameter (fraction of occupied sites, or density of traders in the network) approaches the percolation threshold pc. Realistic dynamics are generated by modeling the density of traders on the percolation network by an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, whose memory controls the spontaneous excursion of the control parameter close to the critical region of bubble formation. Our numerical simulations recover the main stylized properties of the JLS model with intermittent explosive super-exponential bubbles interrupted by crashes.

  10. Pacific Northwest geomorphology and hydrology: rates and probabilities of selected processes and events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tubbs, D.W.

    1979-01-01

    This report presents results of one of the geomorphological and hydrological studies that have been conducted for the release scenario analysis of the Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program (WISAP). Three general topics are considered: (1) determination of rates of denudation, (2) estimation of the probability of flooding due to each of several causes, and (3) evaluation of other surface processes that should be considered in the release scenario analysis. The third general topic was ultimately narrowed to the possible effects of landsliding. Rates of erosion are expressed as centimeters per 100 years, except that the original units are retained in figures taken from other sources. Probabilities are also expressed per 100 years

  11. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    -dimensional integrals required in the EM algorithm are estimated using MCMC sampling. The MCMC sampler requires simulation of sample paths from a continuous time Markov process, conditional on the beginning and ending states and the paths of the neighboring sites. An exact path sampling algorithm is developed......The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor......-dependent substitution models are analytically intractable and must be analyzed using either approximate or simulation-based methods. We describe statistical inference of neighbor-dependent models using a Markov chain Monte Carlo expectation maximization (MCMC-EM) algorithm. In the MCMC-EM algorithm, the high...

  12. Contemporary statistical procedures (Parametric Empirical Bayes) and nuclear plant event rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaver, D.P.; Worledge, D.H.

    1985-01-01

    The conduct of a nuclear power plant probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) recognizes that each of a great many vital components and systems is subject to failure. One aspect of the PRA procedure is to quantify individual item failure propensity, often in terms of the failure rate parameter of an exponential distribution or Poisson process, and then to combine rates so as to effectively infer the probability of plant failure, e.g., core damage. The formal method of combination of such rates involves use of fault-tree analysis. The defensibility of the final fault-tree result depends both upon the adequacy of the failure representations of its components, and upon the correctness and inclusiveness of the fault tree logic. This paper focuses upon the first issue, in particular, upon contemporary proposals for deriving estimates of individual rates. The purpose of the paper is to present, in basically non-mathematical terms, the essential nature of some of these proposals, and an assessment of how they might fit into, and contribute positively to, a more defensible or trustworthy PRA process

  13. Treatment cost and life expectancy of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL): a discrete event simulation model on a UK population-based observational cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Han-I; Smith, Alexandra; Aas, Eline; Roman, Eve; Crouch, Simon; Burton, Cathy; Patmore, Russell

    2017-03-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the commonest non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Previous studies examining the cost of treating DLBCL have generally focused on a specific first-line therapy alone; meaning that their findings can neither be extrapolated to the general patient population nor to other points along the treatment pathway. Based on empirical data from a representative population-based patient cohort, the objective of this study was to develop a simulation model that could predict costs and life expectancy of treating DLBCL. All patients newly diagnosed with DLBCL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network ( www.hmrn.org ) in 2007 were followed until 2013 (n = 271). Mapped treatment pathways, alongside cost information derived from the National Tariff 2013/14, were incorporated into a patient-level simulation model in order to reflect the heterogeneities of patient characteristics and treatment options. The NHS and social services perspective was adopted, and all outcomes were discounted at 3.5 % per annum. Overall, the expected total medical costs were £22,122 for those treated with curative intent, and £2930 for those managed palliatively. For curative chemotherapy, the predicted medical costs were £14,966, £23,449 and £7376 for first-, second- and third-line treatments, respectively. The estimated annual cost for treating DLBCL across the UK was around £88-92 million. This is the first cost modelling study using empirical data to provide 'real world' evidence throughout the DLBCL treatment pathway. Future application of the model could include evaluation of new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers, especially in the era of personalised medicine.

  14. Individual differences in heart rate variability are associated with the avoidance of negative emotional events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katahira, Kentaro; Fujimura, Tomomi; Matsuda, Yoshi-Taka; Okanoya, Kazuo; Okada, Masato

    2014-12-01

    Although the emotional outcome of a choice generally affects subsequent decisions, humans can inhibit the influence of emotion. Heart rate variability (HRV) has emerged as an objective measure of individual differences in the capacity for inhibitory control. In the present study, we investigated how individual differences in HRV at rest are associated with the emotional effects of the outcome of a choice on subsequent decision making using a decision-making task in which emotional pictures appeared as decision outcomes. We used a reinforcement learning model to characterize the observed behaviors according to several parameters, namely, the learning rate and the motivational value of positive and negative pictures. Consequently, we found that individuals with a lower resting HRV exhibited a greater negative motivational value in response to negative pictures, suggesting that these individuals tend to avoid negative pictures compared with individuals with a higher resting HRV. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Left Ventricular Wall Stress-Mass-Heart Rate Product and Cardiovascular Events in Treated Hypertensive Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Devereux, Richard B; Bang, Casper N; Roman, Mary J

    2015-01-01

    -varying covariate in Cox models assessing predictors of the LIFE primary composite end point (cardiovascular death, MI, or stroke), its individual components, and all-cause mortality. At baseline, the triple product in both treatment groups was, compared with normal adults, elevated in 70% of patients. During...... more, greater heart rate reduction with atenolol resulted in larger reduction of the triple product. Lower triple product during antihypertensive treatment was strongly, independently associated with lower rates of the LIFE primary composite end point, cardiovascular death, and MI, but not stroke.......In the Losartan Intervention for End Point Reduction in Hypertension (LIFE) study, 4.8 years' losartan- versus atenolol-based antihypertensive treatment reduced left ventricular hypertrophy and cardiovascular end points, including cardiovascular death and stroke. However, there was no difference...

  16. High cardiovascular event rates in patients with asymptomatic carotid stenosis: the REACH Registry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aichner, F T; Topakian, R; Alberts, M J

    2009-01-01

    /absence of ACAS at the time of inclusion. RESULTS: Compared with patients without ACAS (n = 30 329), patients with ACAS (n = 3164) had higher age- and sex-adjusted 1-year rates of transient ischaemic attack (3.51% vs. 1.61%, P ....26%, P = 0.04), cardiovascular death (2.29% vs. 1.52%, P = 0.002), the composite end-point cardiovascular death/myocardial infarction/stroke (6.03% vs. 4.29%, P

  17. Soverign Rating Events and bank Share Prices in the Italian Market

    OpenAIRE

    S. Caselli; G. Gandolfi; M. Soana

    2013-01-01

    The paper examines the spillover effect of Eurozone sovereign rating changes announced by Standard and Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch on domestic bank share prices in the period 2002–2012. This spillover effect appears strongly negative in the case of downgrades, but insignificant for upgrades. Bank losses following sovereign downgrades are greater during the financial crisis of 2008 and in the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain). Surprisingly, announcement of sovereign ...

  18. The tell-tale heart: heart rate fluctuations index objective and subjective events during a game of chess.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leone, María J; Petroni, Agustín; Fernandez Slezak, Diego; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    During a decision-making process, the body changes. These somatic changes have been related to specific cognitive events and also have been postulated to assist decision-making indexing possible outcomes of different options. We used chess to analyze heart rate (HR) modulations on specific cognitive events. In a chess game, players have a limited time-budget to make about 40 moves (decisions) that can be objectively evaluated and retrospectively assigned to specific subjectively perceived events, such as setting a goal and the process to reach a known goal. We show that HR signals events: it predicts the conception of a plan, the concrete analysis of variations or the likelihood to blunder by fluctuations before to the move, and it reflects reactions, such as a blunder made by the opponent, by fluctuations subsequent to the move. Our data demonstrate that even if HR constitutes a relatively broad marker integrating a myriad of physiological variables, its dynamic is rich enough to reveal relevant episodes of inner thought.

  19. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  20. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A.; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L.; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

    2018-01-01

    Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network. PMID:29515349

  1. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis A. Camuñas-Mesa

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

  2. A Configurable Event-Driven Convolutional Node with Rate Saturation Mechanism for Modular ConvNet Systems Implementation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuñas-Mesa, Luis A; Domínguez-Cordero, Yaisel L; Linares-Barranco, Alejandro; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares-Barranco, Bernabé

    2018-01-01

    Convolutional Neural Networks (ConvNets) are a particular type of neural network often used for many applications like image recognition, video analysis or natural language processing. They are inspired by the human brain, following a specific organization of the connectivity pattern between layers of neurons known as receptive field. These networks have been traditionally implemented in software, but they are becoming more computationally expensive as they scale up, having limitations for real-time processing of high-speed stimuli. On the other hand, hardware implementations show difficulties to be used for different applications, due to their reduced flexibility. In this paper, we propose a fully configurable event-driven convolutional node with rate saturation mechanism that can be used to implement arbitrary ConvNets on FPGAs. This node includes a convolutional processing unit and a routing element which allows to build large 2D arrays where any multilayer structure can be implemented. The rate saturation mechanism emulates the refractory behavior in biological neurons, guaranteeing a minimum separation in time between consecutive events. A 4-layer ConvNet with 22 convolutional nodes trained for poker card symbol recognition has been implemented in a Spartan6 FPGA. This network has been tested with a stimulus where 40 poker cards were observed by a Dynamic Vision Sensor (DVS) in 1 s time. Different slow-down factors were applied to characterize the behavior of the system for high speed processing. For slow stimulus play-back, a 96% recognition rate is obtained with a power consumption of 0.85 mW. At maximum play-back speed, a traffic control mechanism downsamples the input stimulus, obtaining a recognition rate above 63% when less than 20% of the input events are processed, demonstrating the robustness of the network.

  3. Variety Is Not the Spice of Life for People with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Frequency Ratings of Central, Variable and Inappropriate Aspects of Common Real-Life Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Eva; Happe, Francesca; Gomez, Juan Carlos

    2010-01-01

    This study used a novel rating task to investigate whether high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have difficulties distinguishing essential from variable aspects of familiar events. Participants read stories about everyday events and judged how often central, variable, and inappropriate event-components normally occur in…

  4. Varying Definitions for Periprocedural Myocardial Infarction Alter Event Rates and Prognostic Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idris, Hanan; Lo, Sidney; Shugman, Ibrahim M.; Saad, Yousef; Hopkins, Andrew P.; Mussap, Christian; Leung, Dominic; Thomas, Liza; Juergens, Craig P.; French, John K.

    2014-01-01

    Background Periprocedural myocardial infarction (PMI) has had several definitions in the last decade, including the Society for Cardiovascular Angiography and Interventions (SCAI) definition, that requires marked biomarker elevations congruent with surgical PMI criteria. Methods and Results The aim of this study was to examine the definition‐based frequencies of PMI and whether they influenced the reported association between PMI and increased rates of late death/ myocardial infarction (MI). We studied 742 patients; 492 (66%) had normal troponin T (TnT) levels and 250 (34%) had elevated, but stable or falling, TnT levels. PMI, using the 2007 and the 2012 universal definition, occurred in 172 (23.2%) and in 99 (13.3%) patients, respectively, whereas 19 (2.6%) met the SCAI PMI definition (PPMI using the 2012 definition, occlusion of a side branch ≤1 mm occurred in 48 patients (48.5%) and was the most common angiographic finding for PMI. The rates of death/MI at 2 years in patients with, compared to those without, PMI was 14.7% versus 10.1% (P=0.087) based on the 2007 definition, 16.9% versus 10.3% (P=0.059) based on the 2012 definition, and 29.4% versus 10.7% (P=0.015) based on the SCAI definition. Conclusion In this study, PMI, according to the SCAI definition, was associated with more‐frequent late death/MI, with ≈20% of all patients, who had PMI using the 2007 universal MI definition, not having SCAI‐defined PMI. Categorizing these latter patients as SCAI‐defined no PMI did not alter the rate of death/MI among no‐PMI patients. PMID:25359403

  5. On the merging rates of envelope-deprived components of binary systems which can give rise to supernova events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tornambe, Amedeo

    1989-08-01

    Theoretical rates of mergings of envelope-deprived components of binary systems, which can give rise to supernova events are described. The effects of the various assumptions on the physical properties of the progenitor system and of its evolutionary behavior through common envelope phases are discussed. Four cases have been analyzed: CO-CO, He-CO, He-He double degenerate mergings and He star-CO dwarf merging. It is found that, above a critical efficiency of the common envelope action in system shrinkage, the rate of CO-CO mergings is not strongly sensitive to the efficiency. Below this critical value, no CO-CO systems will survive for times larger than a few Gyr. In contrast, He-CO dwarf systems will continue to merge at a reasonable rate up to 20 Gyr, and more, also under extreme conditions.

  6. One wouldn't expect an expert bowler to hit only two pins: Hierarchical predictive processing of agent-caused events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heil, Lieke; Kwisthout, Johan; van Pelt, Stan; van Rooij, Iris; Bekkering, Harold

    2018-01-01

    Evidence is accumulating that our brains process incoming information using top-down predictions. If lower level representations are correctly predicted by higher level representations, this enhances processing. However, if they are incorrectly predicted, additional processing is required at higher levels to "explain away" prediction errors. Here, we explored the potential nature of the models generating such predictions. More specifically, we investigated whether a predictive processing model with a hierarchical structure and causal relations between its levels is able to account for the processing of agent-caused events. In Experiment 1, participants watched animated movies of "experienced" and "novice" bowlers. The results are in line with the idea that prediction errors at a lower level of the hierarchy (i.e., the outcome of how many pins fell down) slow down reporting of information at a higher level (i.e., which agent was throwing the ball). Experiments 2 and 3 suggest that this effect is specific to situations in which the predictor is causally related to the outcome. Overall, the study supports the idea that a hierarchical predictive processing model can account for the processing of observed action outcomes and that the predictions involved are specific to cases where action outcomes can be predicted based on causal knowledge.

  7. Assessing the impact of safety monitoring on the efficacy analysis in large Phase III group sequential trials with non-trivial safety event rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Yanqiu; Palesch, Yuko Y; DeSantis, Stacia M; Zhao, Wenle

    2016-01-01

    In Phase III clinical trials for life-threatening conditions, some serious but expected adverse events, such as early deaths or congestive heart failure, are often treated as the secondary or co-primary endpoint, and are closely monitored by the Data and Safety Monitoring Committee (DSMC). A naïve group sequential design (GSD) for such a study is to specify univariate statistical boundaries for the efficacy and safety endpoints separately, and then implement the two boundaries during the study, even though the two endpoints are typically correlated. One problem with this naïve design, which has been noted in the statistical literature, is the potential loss of power. In this article, we develop an analytical tool to evaluate this negative impact for trials with non-trivial safety event rates, particularly when the safety monitoring is informal. Using a bivariate binary power function for the GSD with a random-effect component to account for subjective decision-making in safety monitoring, we demonstrate how, under common conditions, the power loss in the naïve design can be substantial. This tool may be helpful to entities such as the DSMCs when they wish to deviate from the prespecified stopping boundaries based on safety measures.

  8. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-05-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M• boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ~10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ~250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ~102-7 × 102 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5 years, respectively), depending on the detailed assumptions regarding LISA detection capabilities.

  9. Scaling A Moment-Rate Function For Small To Large Magnitude Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Archuleta, Ralph; Ji, Chen

    2017-04-01

    Since the 1980's seismologists have recognized that peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) scale differently with magnitude for large and moderate earthquakes. In a recent paper (Archuleta and Ji, GRL 2016) we introduced an apparent moment-rate function (aMRF) that accurately predicts the scaling with magnitude of PGA, PGV, PWA (Wood-Anderson Displacement) and the ratio PGA/2πPGV (dominant frequency) for earthquakes 3.3 ≤ M ≤ 5.3. This apparent moment-rate function is controlled by two temporal parameters, tp and td, which are related to the time for the moment-rate function to reach its peak amplitude and the total duration of the earthquake, respectively. These two temporal parameters lead to a Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) of displacement that has two corners in between which the spectral amplitudes decay as 1/f, f denotes frequency. At higher or lower frequencies, the FAS of the aMRF looks like a single-corner Aki-Brune omega squared spectrum. However, in the presence of attenuation the higher corner is almost certainly masked. Attempting to correct the spectrum to an Aki-Brune omega-squared spectrum will produce an "apparent" corner frequency that falls between the double corner frequency of the aMRF. We reason that the two corners of the aMRF are the reason that seismologists deduce a stress drop (e.g., Allmann and Shearer, JGR 2009) that is generally much smaller than the stress parameter used to produce ground motions from stochastic simulations (e.g., Boore, 2003 Pageoph.). The presence of two corners for the smaller magnitude earthquakes leads to several questions. Can deconvolution be successfully used to determine scaling from small to large earthquakes? Equivalently will large earthquakes have a double corner? If large earthquakes are the sum of many smaller magnitude earthquakes, what should the displacement FAS look like for a large magnitude earthquake? Can a combination of such a double-corner spectrum and random

  10. Ion-ion coincidence imaging at high event rate using an in-vacuum pixel detector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Jingming; Furch, Federico J.; Durá, Judith; Tremsin, Anton S.; Vallerga, John; Schulz, Claus Peter; Rouzée, Arnaud; Vrakking, Marc J. J.

    2017-07-01

    A new ion-ion coincidence imaging spectrometer based on a pixelated complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor detector has been developed for the investigation of molecular ionization and fragmentation processes in strong laser fields. Used as a part of a velocity map imaging spectrometer, the detection system is comprised of a set of microchannel plates and a Timepix detector. A fast time-to-digital converter (TDC) is used to enhance the ion time-of-flight resolution by correlating timestamps registered separately by the Timepix detector and the TDC. In addition, sub-pixel spatial resolution (principle experiment on strong field dissociative double ionization of carbon dioxide molecules (CO2), using a 400 kHz repetition rate laser system. The experimental results demonstrate that the spectrometer can detect multiple ions in coincidence, making it a valuable tool for studying the fragmentation dynamics of molecules in strong laser fields.

  11. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  12. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  13. Alcohol Expectancies and Inhibition Conflict as Moderators of the Alcohol-Unprotected Sex Relationship: Event-Level Findings from a Daily Diary Study Among Individuals Living with HIV in Cape Town, South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiene, Susan M; Simbayi, Leickness C; Abrams, Amber; Cloete, Allanise

    2016-01-01

    Literature from sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere supports a global association between alcohol and HIV risk. However, more rigorous studies using multiple event-level methods find mixed support for this association, suggesting the importance of examining potential moderators of this relationship. The present study explores the assumptions of alcohol expectancy theory and alcohol myopia theory as possible moderators that help elucidate the circumstances under which alcohol may affect individuals' ability to use a condom. Participants were 82 individuals (58 women, 24 men) living with HIV who completed daily phone interviews for 42 days which assessed daily sexual behavior and alcohol consumption. Logistic generalized estimating equation models were used to examine the potential moderating effects of inhibition conflict and sex-related alcohol outcome expectancies. The data provided some support for both theories and in some cases the moderation effects were stronger when both partners consumed alcohol.

  14. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  15. Pulse Rate and Transit Time Analysis to Predict Hypotension Events After Spinal Anesthesia During Programmed Cesarean Labor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolea, Juan; Lázaro, Jesús; Gil, Eduardo; Rovira, Eva; Remartínez, José M; Laguna, Pablo; Pueyo, Esther; Navarro, Augusto; Bailón, Raquel

    2017-09-01

    Prophylactic treatment has been proved to reduce hypotension incidence after spinal anesthesia during cesarean labor. However, the use of pharmacological prophylaxis could carry out undesirable side-effects on mother and fetus. Thus, the prediction of hypotension becomes an important challenge. Hypotension events are hypothesized to be related to a malfunctioning of autonomic nervous system (ANS) regulation of blood pressure. In this work, ANS responses to positional changes of 51 pregnant women programmed for a cesarean labor were explored for hypotension prediction. Lateral and supine decubitus, and sitting position were considered while electrocardiographic and pulse photoplethysmographic signals were recorded. Features based on heart rate variability, pulse rate variability (PRV) and pulse transit time (PTT) analysis were used in a logistic regression classifier. The results showed that PRV irregularity changes, assessed by approximate entropy, from supine to lateral decubitus, and standard deviation of PTT in supine decubitus were found as the combination of features that achieved the best classification results sensitivity of 76%, specificity of 70% and accuracy of 72%, being normotensive the positive class. Peripheral regulation and blood pressure changes, measured by PRV and PTT analysis, could help to predict hypotension events reducing prophylactic side-effects in the low-risk population.

  16. Network Events on Multiple Space and Time Scales in Cultured Neural Networks and in a Stochastic Rate Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guido Gigante

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Cortical networks, in-vitro as well as in-vivo, can spontaneously generate a variety of collective dynamical events such as network spikes, UP and DOWN states, global oscillations, and avalanches. Though each of them has been variously recognized in previous works as expression of the excitability of the cortical tissue and the associated nonlinear dynamics, a unified picture of the determinant factors (dynamical and architectural is desirable and not yet available. Progress has also been partially hindered by the use of a variety of statistical measures to define the network events of interest. We propose here a common probabilistic definition of network events that, applied to the firing activity of cultured neural networks, highlights the co-occurrence of network spikes, power-law distributed avalanches, and exponentially distributed 'quasi-orbits', which offer a third type of collective behavior. A rate model, including synaptic excitation and inhibition with no imposed topology, synaptic short-term depression, and finite-size noise, accounts for all these different, coexisting phenomena. We find that their emergence is largely regulated by the proximity to an oscillatory instability of the dynamics, where the non-linear excitable behavior leads to a self-amplification of activity fluctuations over a wide range of scales in space and time. In this sense, the cultured network dynamics is compatible with an excitation-inhibition balance corresponding to a slightly sub-critical regime. Finally, we propose and test a method to infer the characteristic time of the fatigue process, from the observed time course of the network's firing rate. Unlike the model, possessing a single fatigue mechanism, the cultured network appears to show multiple time scales, signalling the possible coexistence of different fatigue mechanisms.

  17. Rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events among hospitalized children following implementation of a resident handoff bundle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Starmer, Amy J; Sectish, Theodore C; Simon, Dennis W; Keohane, Carol; McSweeney, Maireade E; Chung, Erica Y; Yoon, Catherine S; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Wassner, Ari J; Harper, Marvin B; Landrigan, Christopher P

    2013-12-04

    Handoff miscommunications are a leading cause of medical errors. Studies comprehensively assessing handoff improvement programs are lacking. To determine whether introduction of a multifaceted handoff program was associated with reduced rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events, fewer omissions of key data in written handoffs, improved verbal handoffs, and changes in resident-physician workflow. Prospective intervention study of 1255 patient admissions (642 before and 613 after the intervention) involving 84 resident physicians (42 before and 42 after the intervention) from July-September 2009 and November 2009-January 2010 on 2 inpatient units at Boston Children's Hospital. Resident handoff bundle, consisting of standardized communication and handoff training, a verbal mnemonic, and a new team handoff structure. On one unit, a computerized handoff tool linked to the electronic medical record was introduced. The primary outcomes were the rates of medical errors and preventable adverse events measured by daily systematic surveillance. The secondary outcomes were omissions in the printed handoff document and resident time-motion activity. Medical errors decreased from 33.8 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 27.3-40.3) to 18.3 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 14.7-21.9; P < .001), and preventable adverse events decreased from 3.3 per 100 admissions (95% CI, 1.7-4.8) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.51-2.4) per 100 admissions (P = .04) following the intervention. There were fewer omissions of key handoff elements on printed handoff documents, especially on the unit that received the computerized handoff tool (significant reductions of omissions in 11 of 14 categories with computerized tool; significant reductions in 2 of 14 categories without computerized tool). Physicians spent a greater percentage of time in a 24-hour period at the patient bedside after the intervention (8.3%; 95% CI 7.1%-9.8%) vs 10.6% (95% CI, 9.2%-12.2%; P = .03). The average duration of verbal

  18. Event rate and reaction time performance in ADHD: Testing predictions from the state regulation deficit hypothesis using an ex-Gaussian model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metin, Baris; Wiersema, Jan R; Verguts, Tom; Gasthuys, Roos; van Der Meere, Jacob J; Roeyers, Herbert; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund

    2014-12-06

    According to the state regulation deficit (SRD) account, ADHD is associated with a problem using effort to maintain an optimal activation state under demanding task settings such as very fast or very slow event rates. This leads to a prediction of disrupted performance at event rate extremes reflected in higher Gaussian response variability that is a putative marker of activation during motor preparation. In the current study, we tested this hypothesis using ex-Gaussian modeling, which distinguishes Gaussian from non-Gaussian variability. Twenty-five children with ADHD and 29 typically developing controls performed a simple Go/No-Go task under four different event-rate conditions. There was an accentuated quadratic relationship between event rate and Gaussian variability in the ADHD group compared to the controls. The children with ADHD had greater Gaussian variability at very fast and very slow event rates but not at moderate event rates. The results provide evidence for the SRD account of ADHD. However, given that this effect did not explain all group differences (some of which were independent of event rate) other cognitive and/or motivational processes are also likely implicated in ADHD performance deficits.

  19. Beyond Extinction: Prolonged Conditioning and Repeated Threat Exposure Abolish Contextual Renewal of Fear-Potentiated Startle Discrimination but Leave Expectancy Ratings Intact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leer, Arne; Haesen, Kim; Vervliet, Bram

    2018-01-01

    Extinction treatments decrease fear via repeated exposures to the conditioned stimulus (CS) and are associated with a return of fear. Alternatively, fear can be reduced via reductions in the perceived intensity of the unconditioned stimulus (US), e.g., through repeated exposures to the US. Promisingly, the few available studies show that repeated US exposures outperform standard extinction. US exposure treatments can decrease fear via two routes: (1) by weakening the CS-US association (extinction-like mechanism), and/or (2) by weakening the subjective US aversiveness (habituation-like mechanism). The current study further investigated the conditions under which US exposure treatment may reduce renewal, by adding a group in which CS-US pairings continued following fear acquisition. During acquisition, participants learned that one of two visual stimuli (CS+/CS-) predicted the occurrence of an aversive electrocutaneous stimulus (US). Next, the background context changed and participants received one of three interventions: repeated CS exposures, (2) repeated US exposures, or (3) continued CS-US pairings. Following repeated CS exposures, test presentations of the CSs in the original conditioning context revealed intact CS+/CS- differentiation in the fear-potentiated startle reflex, while the differentiation was abolished in the other two groups. Differential US expectancy ratings, on the other hand, were intact in all groups. Skin conductance data were inconclusive because standard context renewal following CS exposures did not occur. Unexpectedly, there was no evidence for a habituation-like process having taken place during US exposures or continued CS-US pairings. The results provide further evidence that US exposures outperform the standard extinction treatment and show that effects are similar when US exposures are part of CS-US pairings.

  20. Exploring similarities and differences in hospital adverse event rates between Norway and Sweden using Global Trigger Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deilkås, Ellen Tveter; Risberg, Madeleine Borgstedt; Haugen, Marion; Lindstrøm, Jonas Christoffer; Nylén, Urban; Rutberg, Hans; Michael, Soop

    2017-03-20

    In this paper, we explore similarities and differences in hospital adverse event (AE) rates between Norway and Sweden by reviewing medical records with the Global Trigger Tool (GTT). All acute care hospitals in both countries performed medical record reviews, except one in Norway. Records were randomly selected from all eligible admissions in 2013. Eligible admissions were patients 18 years of age or older, undergoing care with an in-hospital stay of at least 24 hours, excluding psychiatric and care and rehabilitation. Reviews were done according to GTT methodology. Similar contexts for healthcare and similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics have inspired the Nordic countries to exchange experiences from measuring and monitoring quality and patient safety in healthcare. The co-operation has promoted the use of GTT to monitor national and local rates of AEs in hospital care. 10 986 medical records were reviewed in Norway and 19 141 medical records in Sweden. No significant difference between overall AE rates was found between the two countries. The rate was 13.0% (95% CI 11.7% to 14.3%) in Norway and 14.4% (95% CI 12.6% to 16.3%) in Sweden. There were significantly higher AE rates of surgical complications in Norwegian hospitals compared with Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of pressure ulcers, falls and 'other' AEs. Among more severe AEs, Norwegian hospitals had significantly higher rates of surgical complications than Swedish hospitals. Swedish hospitals had significantly higher rates of postpartum AEs. The level of patient safety in acute care hospitals, as assessed by GTT, was essentially the same in both countries. The differences between the countries in the rates of several types of AEs provide new incentives for Norwegian and Swedish governing bodies to address patient safety issues. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please

  1. Community expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, L.

    2004-01-01

    Historically, the relationship between the nuclear generator and the local community has been one of stability and co-operation. However in more recent times (2000-2003) the nuclear landscape has had several major issues that directly effect the local nuclear host communities. - The associations mandate is to be supportive of the nuclear industry through ongoing dialogue, mutual cooperation and education, - To strengthen community representation with the nuclear industry and politically through networking with other nuclear host communities. As a result of these issues, the Mayors of a number of communities started having informal meetings to discuss the issues at hand and how they effect their constituents. These meetings led to the official formation of the CANHC with representation from: In Canada it is almost impossible to discuss decommissioning and dismantling of Nuclear Facilities without also discussing Nuclear Waste disposal for reasons that I will soon make clear. Also I would like to briefly touch on how and why expectation of communities may differ by geography and circumstance. (author)

  2. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  3. Simulation of overpressure events with a Laguna Verde model for the RELAP code to conditions of extended power up rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodriguez H, A.; Araiza M, E.; Fuentes M, L.; Ortiz V, J.

    2012-10-01

    In this work the main results of the simulation of overpressure events are presented using a model of the nuclear power plant of Laguna Verde developed for the RELAP/SCDAPSIM code. As starting point we have the conformation of a Laguna Verde model that represents a stationary state to similar conditions to the operation of the power station with Extended Power Up rate (EPU). The transitory of simulated pressure are compared with those documented in the Final Safety Analysis Report of Laguna Verde (FSAR). The results of the turbine shot transitory with and without by-pass of the main turbine are showed, and the event of closes of all the valves of main vapor isolation. A preliminary simulation was made and with base in the results some adjustments were made for the operation with EPU, taking into account the Operation Technical Specifications of the power station. The results of the final simulations were compared and analyzed with the content in the FSAR. The response of the power station to the transitory, reflected in the model for RELAP, was satisfactory. Finally, comments about the improvement of the model are included, for example, the response time of the protection and mitigation systems of the power station. (Author)

  4. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  5. Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boyd, Mark A; Mocroft, Amanda; Ryom, Lene

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2) events in HIV...

  6. 5 CFR Appendix A to Subpart F of... - List of Events for Which Inclusion of NAFI Service May Affect the Rate of Annuity Payable

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false List of Events for Which Inclusion of... of Part 847—List of Events for Which Inclusion of NAFI Service May Affect the Rate of Annuity Payable... of annuity. CSRS disability retirement Commencing date of annuity. 1 FERS disability retirement First...

  7. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Ruderman

    Full Text Available This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004.Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees.Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs with 95% confidence intervals (CIs were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis.Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17, drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98, non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64, violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43, and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53.Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.

  8. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruderman, Michael A; Wilson, Deirdra F; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05-4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00-2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73-2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45-2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37-2.53). Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted.

  9. Does Prison Crowding Predict Higher Rates of Substance Use Related Parole Violations? A Recurrent Events Multi-Level Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruderman, Michael A.; Wilson, Deirdra F.; Reid, Savanna

    2015-01-01

    Objective This administrative data-linkage cohort study examines the association between prison crowding and the rate of post-release parole violations in a random sample of prisoners released with parole conditions in California, for an observation period of two years (January 2003 through December 2004). Background Crowding overextends prison resources needed to adequately protect inmates and provide drug rehabilitation services. Violence and lack of access to treatment are known risk factors for drug use and substance use disorders. These and other psychosocial effects of crowding may lead to higher rates of recidivism in California parolees. Methods Rates of parole violation for parolees exposed to high and medium levels of prison crowding were compared to parolees with low prison crowding exposure. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using a Cox model for recurrent events. Our dataset included 13070 parolees in California, combining individual level parolee data with aggregate level crowding data for multilevel analysis. Results Comparing parolees exposed to high crowding with those exposed to low crowding, the effect sizes from greatest to least were absconding violations (HR 3.56 95% CI: 3.05–4.17), drug violations (HR 2.44 95% CI: 2.00–2.98), non-violent violations (HR 2.14 95% CI: 1.73–2.64), violent and serious violations (HR 1.88 95% CI: 1.45–2.43), and technical violations (HR 1.86 95% CI: 1.37–2.53). Conclusions Prison crowding predicted higher rates of parole violations after release from prison. The effect was magnitude-dependent and particularly strong for drug charges. Further research into whether adverse prison experiences, such as crowding, are associated with recidivism and drug use in particular may be warranted. PMID:26492490

  10. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  11. The impact of realistic models of mass segregation on the event rate of extreme-mass ratio inspirals and cusp re-growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amaro-Seoane, Pau; Preto, Miguel

    2011-01-01

    One of the most interesting sources of gravitational waves (GWs) for LISA is the inspiral of compact objects on to a massive black hole (MBH), commonly referred to as an 'extreme-mass ratio inspiral' (EMRI). The small object, typically a stellar black hole, emits significant amounts of GW along each orbit in the detector bandwidth. The slowly, adiabatic inspiral of these sources will allow us to map spacetime around MBHs in detail, as well as to test our current conception of gravitation in the strong regime. The event rate of this kind of source has been addressed many times in the literature and the numbers reported fluctuate by orders of magnitude. On the other hand, recent observations of the Galactic centre revealed a dearth of giant stars inside the inner parsec relative to the numbers theoretically expected for a fully relaxed stellar cusp. The possibility of unrelaxed nuclei (or, equivalently, with no or only a very shallow cusp, or core) adds substantial uncertainty to the estimates. Having this timely question in mind, we run a significant number of direct-summation N-body simulations with up to half a million particles to calibrate a much faster orbit-averaged Fokker-Planck code. We show that, under quite generic initial conditions, the time required for the growth of a relaxed, mass segregated stellar cusp is shorter than a Hubble time for MBHs with M . ∼ 6 M o-dot (i.e. nuclei in the range of LISA). We then investigate the regime of strong mass segregation (SMS) for models with two different stellar mass components. Given the most recent stellar mass normalization for the inner parsec of the Galactic centre, SMS has the significant impact of boosting the EMRI rates by a factor of ∼10 in comparison to what would result from a 7/4-Bahcall and Wolf cusp resulting in ∼250 events per Gyr per Milky Way type galaxy. Such an intrinsic rate should translate roughly into ∼10 2 -7 x 10 2 sbh's (EMRIs detected by LISA over a mission lifetime of 2 or 5

  12. Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

  13. Growth rate of late passage sarcoma cells is independent of epigenetic events but dependent on the amount of chromosomal aberrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Becerikli, Mustafa; Jacobsen, Frank; Rittig, Andrea; Köhne, Wiebke; Nambiar, Sandeep; Mirmohammadsadegh, Alireza; Stricker, Ingo; Tannapfel, Andrea; Wieczorek, Stefan; Epplen, Joerg Thomas; Tilkorn, Daniel; Steinstraesser, Lars

    2013-01-01

    Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are characterized by co-participation of several epigenetic and genetic events during tumorigenesis. Having bypassed cellular senescence barriers during oncogenic transformation, the factors further affecting growth rate of STS cells remain poorly understood. Therefore, we investigated the role of gene silencing (DNA promoter methylation of LINE-1, PTEN), genetic aberrations (karyotype, KRAS and BRAF mutations) as well as their contribution to the proliferation rate and migratory potential that underlies “initial” and “final” passage sarcoma cells. Three different cell lines were used, SW982 (synovial sarcoma), U2197 (malignant fibrous histiocytoma (MFH)) and HT1080 (fibrosarcoma). Increased proliferative potential of final passage STS cells was not associated with significant differences in methylation (LINE-1, PTEN) and mutation status (KRAS, BRAF), but it was dependent on the amount of chromosomal aberrations. Collectively, our data demonstrate that these fairly differentiated/advanced cancer cell lines have still the potential to gain an additional spontaneous growth benefit without external influences and that maintenance of increased proliferative potential towards longevity of STS cells (having crossed senescence barriers) may be independent of overt epigenetic alterations. -- Highlights: Increased proliferative potential of late passage STS cells was: • Not associated with epigenetic changes (methylation changes at LINE-1, PTEN). • Not associated with mutation status of KRAS, BRAF. • Dependent on presence/absence of chromosomal aberrations

  14. A novel approach for analyzing data on recurrent events with duration to estimate the combined cumulative rate of both variables over time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sudipta Bhattacharya

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Recurrent adverse events, once occur often continue for some duration of time in clinical trials; and the number of events along with their durations is clinically considered as a measure of severity of a disease under study. While there are methods available for analyzing recurrent events or durations or for analyzing both side by side, no effort has been made so far to combine them and present as a single measure. However, this single-valued combined measure may help clinicians assess the wholesome effect of recurrence of incident comprising events and durations. Non-parametric approach is adapted here to develop an estimator for estimating the combined rate of both, the recurrence of events as well as the event-continuation, that is the duration per event. The proposed estimator produces a single numerical value, the interpretation and meaningfulness of which are discussed through the analysis of a real-life clinical dataset. The algebraic expression of variance is derived, asymptotic normality of the estimator is noted, and demonstration is provided on how the estimator can be used in the setup of testing of statistical hypothesis. Further possible development of the estimator is also noted, to adjust for the dependence of event occurrences on the history of the process generating recurrent events through covariates and for the case of dependent censoring. Keywords: Recurrent events, Duration per event, Intensity, Nelson-aalen estimator

  15. Public High School Four-Year On-Time Graduation Rates and Event Dropout Rates: School Years 2010-11 and 2011-12. First Look. NCES 2014-391

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stetser, Marie C.; Stillwell, Robert

    2014-01-01

    This National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) First Look report introduces new data for two separate measures of 4-year on-time graduation rates as well as event dropout rates for school year (SY) 2010-11 and SY 2011-12. Specifically this report provides the following: (1) Four-year adjusted cohort graduation rate (ACGR) data reported by…

  16. The Rates of Type I X-ray Bursts from Transients Observed with RXTE: Evidence for Black Hole Event Horizons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Remillard, R. A.; Lin, D.; Cooper, R. L.; Narayan, R.

    2005-12-01

    We measure the rates of type I X-ray bursts from a likely complete sample of 37 non-pulsing Galactic X-ray transients observed with the RXTE ASM during 1996-2004. Our strategy is to test the prevailing paradigms for these sources, which are well-categorized in the literature as either neutron-star systems or black hole candidates. Burst rates are measured as a function of the bolometric luminosity, and the results are compared with burst models for neutron stars and for heavy compact objects with a solid surface. We use augmented versions of the models developed by Narayan & Heyl (2002; 2003). For a given mass, we consider a range of conditions in both the radius and the temperature at the boundary below the accretion layer. We find 135 type I bursts in 3.7 Ms of PCA light curves for the neutron-star group, and the burst rate function is generally consistent with the model predictions for bursts from accreting neutron stars. On the other hand, none of the (20) bursts candidates passed spectral criteria for type I bursts in 6.5 Ms of PCA light curves for black-hole binaries and candidates. The burst function upper limits are inconsistent with the predictions of the burst model for heavy compact objects with a solid surface. The consistency probability is found to be below 10-7 for dynamical black-hole binaries, falling to below 10-13 for the additional exposures of black-hole candidates. These results provide indirect evidence that black holes do have event horizons. This research was supported, in part, by NASA science programs.

  17. Predictive value of night-time heart rate for cardiovascular events in hypertension. The ABP-International study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palatini, Paolo; Reboldi, Gianpaolo; Beilin, Lawrence J; Eguchi, Kazuo; Imai, Yutaka; Kario, Kazuomi; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Pierdomenico, Sante D; Saladini, Francesca; Schwartz, Joseph E; Wing, Lindon; Verdecchia, Paolo

    2013-09-30

    Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between ambulatory heart rate (HR) and cardiovascular events (CVE) are conflicting. To investigate whether ambulatory HR predicts CVE in hypertension, we performed 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure and HR monitoring in 7600 hypertensive patients aged 52 ± 16 years from Italy, U.S.A., Japan, and Australia, included in the 'ABP-International' registry. All were untreated at baseline examination. Standardized hazard ratios for ambulatory HRs were computed, stratifying for cohort, and adjusting for age, gender, blood pressure, smoking, diabetes, serum total cholesterol and serum creatinine. During a median follow-up of 5.0 years there were 639 fatal and nonfatal CVE. In a multivariable Cox model, night-time HR predicted fatal combined with nonfatal CVE more closely than 24h HR (p=0.007 and =0.03, respectively). Daytime HR and the night:day HR ratio were not associated with CVE (p=0.07 and =0.18, respectively). The hazard ratio of the fatal combined with nonfatal CVE for a 10-beats/min increment of the night-time HR was 1.13 (95% CI, 1.04-1.22). This relationship remained significant when subjects taking beta-blockers during the follow-up (hazard ratio, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25) or subjects who had an event within 5 years after enrollment (hazard ratio, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.05-1.45) were excluded from analysis. At variance with previous data obtained from general populations, ambulatory HR added to the risk stratification for fatal combined with nonfatal CVE in the hypertensive patients from the ABP-International study. Night-time HR was a better predictor of CVE than daytime HR. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. How Newspaper-Article-Events, Other Stock Market Indices, and the Foreign Currency Rate Affect the Philippine Stock Market

    OpenAIRE

    Percival S. Gabriel

    2013-01-01

    Eugene Fama in his “Efficient Market Hypothesis” introduced the term newspaper-article-event. The aim of this paper is to find out if newspaper-article-events which are presented and discussed in newspaper articles and which could collage to create an atmosphere of investment, together with the indices of other stock markets (treated as other events) and the performance of the Philippine Peso against the US Dollar (considered as another event) could affect the closing Philippine Stock Market ...

  19. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  20. Effects of Italian smoking regulation on rates of hospital admission for acute coronary events: a country-wide study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Barone-Adesi

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Several studies have reported a reduction in acute coronary events (ACEs in the general population after the enforcement of smoking regulations, although there is uncertainty concerning the magnitude of the effect of such interventions. We conducted a country-wide evaluation of the health effects of the introduction of a smoking ban in public places, using data on hospital admissions for ACEs from the Italian population after the implementation of a national smoking regulation in January 2005. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Rates of admission for ACEs in the 20 Italian regions from January 2002 to November 2006 were analysed using mixed-effect regression models that allowed for long-term trends and seasonality. Standard methods for interrupted time-series were adopted to assess the immediate and gradual effects of the smoking ban. Effect modification by age was investigated, with the assumption that exposure to passive smoking in public places would be greater among young people. In total, 936,519 hospital admissions for ACEs occurred in the Italian population during the study period. A 4% reduction in hospital admissions for ACEs among persons aged less than 70 years was evident after the introduction of the ban (Rate Ratio [RR], 0.96; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.95-0.98. No effect was found among persons aged at least 70 years (RR 1.00; 95% CI 0.99-1.02. Effect modification by age was further suggested by analyses using narrower age categories. CONCLUSIONS: Smoke-free policies can constitute a simple and inexpensive intervention for the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and thus should be included in prevention programmes.

  1. Patient-dependent count-rate adaptive normalization for PET detector efficiency with delayed-window coincidence events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niu, Xiaofeng; Ye, Hongwei; Xia, Ting; Asma, Evren; Gagnon, Daniel; Wang, Wenli; Winkler, Mark

    2015-01-01

    Quantitative PET imaging is widely used in clinical diagnosis in oncology and neuroimaging. Accurate normalization correction for the efficiency of each line-of- response is essential for accurate quantitative PET image reconstruction. In this paper, we propose a normalization calibration method by using the delayed-window coincidence events from the scanning phantom or patient. The proposed method could dramatically reduce the ‘ring’ artifacts caused by mismatched system count-rates between the calibration and phantom/patient datasets. Moreover, a modified algorithm for mean detector efficiency estimation is proposed, which could generate crystal efficiency maps with more uniform variance. Both phantom and real patient datasets are used for evaluation. The results show that the proposed method could lead to better uniformity in reconstructed images by removing ring artifacts, and more uniform axial variance profiles, especially around the axial edge slices of the scanner. The proposed method also has the potential benefit to simplify the normalization calibration procedure, since the calibration can be performed using the on-the-fly acquired delayed-window dataset. (paper)

  2. Event-rate and delta inflation when evaluating mortality as a primary outcome from randomized controlled trials of nutritional interventions during critical illness: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Summers, Matthew J; Chapple, Lee-anne S; McClave, Stephen A; Deane, Adam M

    2016-04-01

    There is a lack of high-quality evidence that proves that nutritional interventions during critical illness reduce mortality. We evaluated whether power calculations for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of nutritional interventions that used mortality as the primary outcome were realistic, and whether overestimation was systematic in the studies identified to determine whether this was due to overestimates of event rate or delta. A systematic review of the literature between 2005 and 2015 was performed to identify RCTs of nutritional interventions administered to critically ill adults that had mortality as the primary outcome. Predicted event rate (predicted mortality during the control), predicted mortality during intervention, predicted delta (predicted difference between mortality during the control and intervention), actual event rate (observed mortality during control), observed mortality during intervention, and actual delta (difference between observed mortality during the control and intervention) were recorded. The event-rate gap (predicted event rate minus observed event rate), the delta gap (predicted delta minus observed delta), and the predicted number needed to treat were calculated. Data are shown as median (range). Fourteen articles were extracted, with power calculations provided for 10 studies. The predicted event rate was 29.9% (20.0–52.4%), and the predicted delta was 7.9% (3.0–20.0%). If the study hypothesis was proven correct then, on the basis of the power calculations, the number needed to treat would have been 12.7 (5.0–33.3) patients. The actual event rate was 25.3% (6.1–50.0%), the observed mortality during the intervention was 24.4% (6.3–39.7%), and the actual delta was 0.5% (−10.2–10.3%), such that the event-rate gap was 2.6% (−3.9–23.7%) and delta gap was 7.5% (3.2–25.2%). Overestimates of delta occur frequently in RCTs of nutritional interventions in the critically ill that are powered to determine a mortality

  3. Chasing the deal with the money: Measuring the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of private equity funds to maximize their internal rate of return

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Scarpati

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available A number of scholars of private equity (“PE” have attempted to assess the ex-post returns, or performance, of PEs by adopting an ex-post perspective of asset pricing. In doing so a set of phenomena has been recognized that is thought to be specific to the PE sector, such as “money-chasing deal phenomenon” (Gompers and Lerner, 2000 and “performance persistence” (Lerner and Schoar, 2005. However, based on their continuing use of an ex-post perspective, few scholars have paid attention to the possible extent to which these and other PE phenomena may affect expected returns from PE investments. To address this problem this article draws on an ex-ante perspective of investment decision-making in suggesting how a number of drivers and factors of PE phenomena may produce “abnormal returns”, and that each of those drivers and factors should therefore be considered in accurately assessing the required risk premium and expected abnormal returns of PE investments. In making these contributions we examined a private equity investment of a regional PE in Italy and administered a telephone questionnaire to 40 PEs in Italy and the UK and found principally that while size is the most important driver in producing abnormal returns illiquidity alone cannot explain the expected returns of PE investments (cf. Franzoni et al., 2012. Based on our findings we developed a predictive model of PE decision-making that draws on an ex-ante perspective of asset pricing and takes into account PE phenomena and abnormal returns. This model extends the work of Franzoni et al. (2012, Jegadeesh et al. (2009, and Korteweg and Sorensen (2010 who did not consider the possible influence of PE phenomena in decision-making and will also help PE managers in making better-informed decisions.

  4. High success rate and considerable adverse events of pelvic prolapse surgery with Prolift: A single center experience

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mun-Kun Hong

    2013-09-01

    Conclusions: Prolapse surgery with Prolift yielded a good anatomical outcome and satisfactory symptom improvement at different periods of follow-up, especially in uterus-sparing prolapse surgery. However, adverse events were not uncommon, and patients should be fully informed of all possible adverse events prior to surgery.

  5. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  6. Caesarean section rates and adverse neonatal outcomes after induction of labour versus expectant management in women with an unripe cervix : a secondary analysis of the HYPITAT and DIGITAT trials

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernardes, T. P.; Broekhuijsen, K.; Koopmans, C. M.; Boers, K. E.; van Wyk, L.; Tajik, P.; van Pampus, M. G.; Scherjon, S. A.; Mol, B. W.; Franssen, M. T.; Berg, van den P. P.; Groen, Henk

    Objective To evaluate caesarean section and adverse neonatal outcome rates after induction of labour or expectant management in women with an unripe cervix at or near term. Design Secondary analysis of data from two randomised clinical trials. Setting Data were collected in two nationwide Dutch

  7. Variety is not the spice of life for people with autism spectrum disorders: frequency ratings of central, variable and inappropriate aspects of common real-life events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loth, Eva; Happé, Francesca; Gómez, Juan Carlos

    2010-06-01

    This study used a novel rating task to investigate whether high-functioning individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have difficulties distinguishing essential from variable aspects of familiar events. Participants read stories about everyday events and judged how often central, variable, and inappropriate event-components normally occur in this type of situation. The ASD boys made significantly more errors than the typically developing boys in rating the occurrences of variable aspects. In both groups, ratings of variable aspects were age-related, but in the ASD boys, they were also related to theory of mind and weak coherence test scores, and to severity of autistic symptoms. Implications for the understanding of some repetitive behaviours, such as the tendency to adhere to inflexible routines, are discussed.

  8. Association between sporting event attendance and self-rated health: an analysis of multiyear cross-sectional national data in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Yuhei; Sato, Mikihiro; Nakazawa, Makoto

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the extent to which sporting event attendance is associated with self-rated health. Drawing from an economic model of health production and psychological research on the health benefits of psychosocial resources, sporting event attendance was hypothesized to have a positive relationship with self-rated health. A two-level multilevel ordered logistic regression was used to analyze multiyear cross-sectional data collected from national surveys in Japan. The results demonstrate that, controlling for the effects of personal and environmental characteristics, sporting event attendance positively correlates with self-rated health over a 12-year period. Specifically, when compared to individuals who did not attend any sporting event during the past year, those who attended a sporting event were 33% more likely to indicate a higher level of self-rated health. These findings provide evidence for a positive association between sport spectatorship and the perception of general health and contribute to the literature examining the relationship between sport spectatorship and health outcomes.

  9. A Markov chain Monte Carlo Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Statistical Analysis of DNA Sequence Evolution with Neighbor-Dependent Substitution Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, Asger

    2008-01-01

    The evolution of DNA sequences can be described by discrete state continuous time Markov processes on a phylogenetic tree. We consider neighbor-dependent evolutionary models where the instantaneous rate of substitution at a site depends on the states of the neighboring sites. Neighbor...

  10. Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate, Cardiovascular Events and Mortality Across Age Groups Among Individuals Older Than 60 Years in Southern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvador-González, Betlem; Gil-Terrón, Neus; Cerain-Herrero, M Jesús; Subirana, Isaac; Güell-Miró, Roser; Rodríguez-Latre, Luisa M; Cunillera-Puértolas, Oriol; Elosua, Roberto; Grau, Maria; Vila, Joan; Pascual-Benito, Luisa; Mestre-Ferrer, Jordi; Ramos, Rafel; Baena-Díez, José Miguel; Soler-Vila, Maria; Alonso-Bes, Eva; Ruipérez-Guijarro, Laura; Álvarez-Funes, Virtudes; Freixes-Villaró, Esther; Rodríguez-Pascual, Mercedes; Martínez-Castelao, Alberto

    2018-06-01

    Individuals with a decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) are at increased risk of all-cause (ACM) and cardiovascular mortality; there is ongoing debate about whether older individuals with eGFR 45 to 59mL/min/1.73 m 2 are also at increased risk. We evaluated the association between eGFR and ACM and cardiovascular events (CVE) in people aged 60 to 74 and ≥ 75 years in a population with a low coronary disease incidence. We conducted a retrospective cohort study by using primary care and hospital electronic records. We included 130 233 individuals aged ≥ 60 years with creatinine measurement between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2011; eGFR was estimated by using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation. The independent association between eGFR and the risk of ACM and hospital admission due to CVE were determined with Cox and Fine-Gray regressions, respectively. The median was age 70 years, and 56.1% were women; 13.5% had eGFR < 60 (69.7% eGFR 45-59). During a median follow-up of 38.2 months, 6474 participants died and 3746 had a CVE. For ACM and CVE, the HR in older individuals became significant at eGFR < 60. Fully adjusted HR for ACM in the eGFR 45 to 59 category were 1.61; 95%CI, 1.37-1.89 and 1.19; 95%CI, 1.10-1.28 in 60- to 74-year-olds and ≥ 75-year-olds, respectively; for CVE HR were 1.28; 95%CI, 1.08-1.51 and 1.12; 95%CI, 0.99-1.26. In a region with low coronary disease incidence, the risk of death and CVE increased with decreasing eGFR. In ≥ 75-year-olds, the eGFR 45 to 59 category, which had borderline risk for CVE, included many individuals without significant additional risk. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  11. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  12. Effect of the Prevalence of HIV/AIDS and the Life Expectancy Rate on Economic Growth in SSA Countries: Difference GMM Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waziri, Salisu Ibrahim; Mohamed Nor, Norashidah; Raja Abdullah, Nik Mustapha; Adamu, Peter

    2015-09-01

    The productivity of countries around the globe is adversely affected by the health-related problems of their labour force. This study examined the effect of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and life expectancy on the economic growth of 33 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over a period of 11 years (2002-2012). The study employed a dynamic panel approach as opposed to the static traditional approach utilised in the literature. The dynamic approach became eminent because of the fact that HIV/AIDS is a dynamic variable as its prevalence today depends on the previous years. The result revealed that HIV/AIDS is negatively correlated with economic growth in the region, with a coefficient of 0.014, and significant at the 1% level. That is, a 10% increase in HIV/AIDS prevalence leads to a 0.14% decrease in the GDP of the region. Tackling HIV/AIDS is therefore imperative to the developing Sub-Saharan African region and all hands must be on deck to end the menace globally.

  13. Rates of preterm birth following antenatal exposure to severe life events: A population-based cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khashan, Ali; McNamee, R.; Abel, Kathryn

    2009-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Preterm birth and other pregnancy complications have been linked to maternal stress during pregnancy. We investigated the association between maternal exposure to severe life events and risk of preterm birth. METHODS: Mothers of all singleton live births (n = 1.35 million births...... to estimate the effect of exposure on preterm birth, very preterm birth and extremely preterm birth. RESULTS: There were 58 626 (4.34%) preterm births (births and 3288 (0.24%) extremely preterm births in the study cohort. Severe life events in close relatives in the 6...... months before conception increased the risk of preterm birth by 16% (relative risk, RR = 1.16, [95% CI: 1.08-1.23]). Severe life events in older children in the 6 months before conception increased the risk of preterm birth by 23% (RR = 1.23, [95% CI: 1.02-1.49]) and the risk of very preterm birth by 59...

  14. Effects of Intervention in the Spot Currency Market on the BRL/USD Exchange Rate from 1999 to 2008: an Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Meurer

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

  15. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  16. Single Event Upset Rate Estimates for a 16-K CMOS (Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor) SRAM (Static Random Access Memory).

    Science.gov (United States)

    1986-09-30

    4 . ~**..ft.. ft . - - - ft SI TABLES 9 I. SA32~40 Single Event Upset Test, 1140-MeV Krypton, 9/l8/8~4. . .. .. .. .. .. .16 II. CRUP Simulation...cosmic ray interaction analysis described in the remainder of this report were calculated using the CRUP computer code 3 modified for funneling. The... CRUP code requires, as inputs, the size of a depletion region specified as a retangular parallel piped with dimensions a 9 b S c, the effective funnel

  17. Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1995-01-01

    Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures

  18. Event group importance measures for top event frequency analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-07-31

    Three traditional importance measures, risk reduction, partial derivative, nd variance reduction, have been extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of underlying failure rates to the frequencies of resulting top events. The partial derivative importance measure was extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. Given the moments of the distributions that characterize the uncertainties in the underlying failure rates, the expectation values of the top event frequency, its variance, and all of the new group importance measures can be quantified exactly for two familiar cases: (1) when all underlying failure rates are presumed independent, and (2) when pairs of failure rates based on common data are treated as being equal (totally correlated). In these cases, the new importance measures, which can also be applied to assess the importance of individual events, obviate the need for Monte Carlo sampling. The event group importance measures are illustrated using a small example problem and demonstrated by applications made as part of a major reactor facility risk assessment. These illustrations and applications indicate both the utility and the versatility of the event group importance measures.

  19. Development and validation of a risk stratification score for ventral incisional hernia after abdominal surgery: hernia expectation rates in intra-abdominal surgery (the HERNIA Project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodenough, Christopher J; Ko, Tien C; Kao, Lillian S; Nguyen, Mylan T; Holihan, Julie L; Alawadi, Zeinab; Nguyen, Duyen H; Flores, Juan R; Arita, Nestor T; Roth, J Scott; Liang, Mike K

    2015-04-01

    clinical decisions. Increasing the use of laparoscopy, weight-loss programs, community smoking prevention programs, and incisional reinforcement may help reduce rates of VIH. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Interpretation of unusual events from CERN and DESY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hall, L.J.; Jaffee, R.L.; Rosner, J.L.

    1984-01-01

    Several classes of interesting and unusual events from the Sp-barpS and from PETRA are studied with two purposes in mind. Firstly, varieties of background within the standard SU(3)xSU(2)xU(1) model are described, together with estimates of the number of expected events. Secondly, a review of the recent explanations of the events involving new physics is given. Critical assessments of these proposals focus on the assumptions made, expected rates for the unusual events, and the ability to account for events of several categories

  1. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  2. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  3. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  4. A change in coral extension rates and stable isotopes after El Niño-induced coral bleaching and regional stress events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzinger, S.; Pfeiffer, M.; Dullo, W.-Chr.; Zinke, J.; Garbe-Schönberg, D.

    2016-09-01

    Coral reefs are biologically diverse ecosystems threatened with effective collapse under rapid climate change, in particular by recent increases in ocean temperatures. Coral bleaching has occurred during major El Niño warming events, at times leading to the die-off of entire coral reefs. Here we present records of stable isotopic composition, Sr/Ca ratios and extension rate (1940-2004) in coral aragonite from a northern Venezuelan site, where reefs were strongly impacted by bleaching following the 1997-98 El Niño. We assess the impact of past warming events on coral extension rates and geochemical proxies. A marked decrease in coral (Pseudodiploria strigosa) extension rates coincides with a baseline shift to more negative values in oxygen and carbon isotopic composition after 1997-98, while a neighboring coral (Siderastrea siderea) recovered to pre-bleaching extension rates simultaneously. However, other stressors, besides high temperature, might also have influenced coral physiology and geochemistry. Coastal Venezuelan reefs were exposed to a series of extreme environmental fluctuations since the mid-1990s, i.e. upwelling, extreme rainfall and sediment input from landslides. This work provides important new data on the potential impacts of multiple regional stress events on coral isotopic compositions and raises questions about the long-term influence on coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions.

  5. Slow-slip events on the Whillans Ice Plain, Antarctica, described using rate-and-state friction as an ice stream sliding law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lipovsky, Bradley Paul; Dunham, Eric M.

    2017-04-01

    The Whillans Ice Plain (WIP), Antarctica, experiences twice daily tidally modulated stick-slip cycles. Slip events last about 30 min, have sliding velocities as high as ˜0.5 mm/s (15 km/yr), and have total slip ˜0.5 m. Slip events tend to occur during falling ocean tide: just after high tide and just before low tide. To reproduce these characteristics, we use rate-and-state friction, which is commonly used to simulate tectonic faulting, as an ice stream sliding law. This framework describes the evolving strength of the ice-bed interface throughout stick-slip cycles. We present simulations that resolve the cross-stream dimension using a depth-integrated treatment of an elastic ice layer loaded by tides and steady ice inflow. Steady sliding with rate-weakening friction is conditionally stable with steady sliding occurring for sufficiently narrow ice streams relative to a nucleation length. Stick-slip cycles occur when the ice stream is wider than the nucleation length or, equivalently, when effective pressures exceed a critical value. Ice streams barely wider than the nucleation length experience slow-slip events, and our simulations suggest that the WIP is in this slow-slip regime. Slip events on the WIP show a sense of propagation, and we reproduce this behavior by introducing a rate-strengthening region in the center of the otherwise rate-weakening ice stream. If pore pressures are raised above a critical value, our simulations predict that the WIP would exhibit quasi-steady tidally modulated sliding as observed on other ice streams. This study validates rate-and-state friction as a sliding law to describe ice stream sliding styles.

  6. Event Rates of Gravitational Waves from merging Intermediate mass Black Holes: based on a Runaway Path to a SMBH

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinkai, Hisaaki

    2018-01-01

    Based on a dynamical formation model of a supermassive black hole (SMBH), we estimate the expected observational profile of gravitational wave at ground-based detectors, such as KAGRA or advanced LIGO/VIRGO. Noting that the second generation of detectors have enough sensitivity from 10 Hz and up, we are able to detect the ring-down gravitational wave of a BH with the mass M 1 per year for ρ = 10. Thus, if we observe a BH with more than 100M⊙ in future gravitational-wave observations, our model naturally explains its source.

  7. Accurate rates of the complex mechanisms for growth and dissolution of minerals using a combination of rare event theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stack, Andrew G.; Raiten, Paolo; Gale, Julian D.

    2012-01-01

    Mineral growth and dissolution are often treated as occurring via a single, reversible process that governs the rate of reaction. We show that multiple, distinct intermediate states can occur during both growth and dissolution. Specifically, we have used metadynamics, a method to efficiently explore the free energy landscape of a system, coupled to umbrella sampling and reactive flux calculations, to examine the mechanism and rates of attachment and detachment of a barium ion onto a stepped, barite (BaSO4) surface. The activation energies calculated for the rate limiting reactions, which are different for attachment and detachment, precisely match those measured experimentally during both growth and dissolution. These results can potentially explain anomalous, non-steady state mineral reaction rates observed experimentally, and will enable the design of more efficient growth inhibitors and facilitate an understanding of the effect of impurities.

  8. Production rate of $b\\overline{b}$ quark pairs from gluons and $b\\overline{b}b\\overline{b}$ events in hadronic Z decays

    CERN Document Server

    Abbiendi, G.; Ainsley, C.; Akesson, P.F.; Alexander, G.; Allison, John; Anderson, K.J.; Arcelli, S.; Asai, S.; Ashby, S.F.; Axen, D.; Azuelos, G.; Bailey, I.; Ball, A.H.; Barberio, E.; Barlow, Roger J.; Baumann, S.; Behnke, T.; Bell, Kenneth Watson; Bella, G.; Bellerive, A.; Bentvelsen, S.; Bethke, S.; Biebel, O.; Bloodworth, I.J.; Bock, P.; Bohme, J.; Boeriu, O.; Bonacorsi, D.; Boutemeur, M.; Braibant, S.; Bright-Thomas, P.; Brigliadori, L.; Brown, Robert M.; Burckhart, H.J.; Cammin, J.; Capiluppi, P.; Carnegie, R.K.; Carter, A.A.; Carter, J.R.; Chang, C.Y.; Charlton, David G.; Ciocca, C.; Clarke, P.E.L.; Clay, E.; Cohen, I.; Cooke, O.C.; Couchman, J.; Couyoumtzelis, C.; Coxe, R.L.; Cuffiani, M.; Dado, S.; Dallavalle, G.Marco; Dallison, S.; de Roeck, A.; Dervan, P.; Desch, K.; Dienes, B.; Dixit, M.S.; Donkers, M.; Dubbert, J.; Duchovni, E.; Duckeck, G.; Duerdoth, I.P.; Estabrooks, P.G.; Etzion, E.; Fabbri, F.; Fanti, M.; Feld, L.; Ferrari, P.; Fiedler, F.; Fleck, I.; Ford, M.; Frey, A.; Furtjes, A.; Futyan, D.I.; Gagnon, P.; Gary, J.W.; Gaycken, G.; Geich-Gimbel, C.; Giacomelli, G.; Giacomelli, P.; Glenzinski, D.; Goldberg, J.; Grandi, C.; Graham, K.; Gross, E.; Grunhaus, J.; Gruwe, M.; Gunther, P.O.; Hajdu, C.; Hanson, G.G.; Hansroul, M.; Hapke, M.; Harder, K.; Harel, A.; Hargrove, C.K.; Harin-Dirac, M.; Hauke, A.; Hauschild, M.; Hawkes, C.M.; Hawkings, R.; Hemingway, R.J.; Hensel, C.; Herten, G.; Heuer, R.D.; Hildreth, M.D.; Hill, J.C.; Hocker, James Andrew; Hoffman, Kara Dion; Homer, R.J.; Honma, A.K.; Horvath, D.; Hossain, K.R.; Howard, R.; Huntemeyer, P.; Igo-Kemenes, P.; Ishii, K.; Jacob, F.R.; Jawahery, A.; Jeremie, H.; Jones, C.R.; Jovanovic, P.; Junk, T.R.; Kanaya, N.; Kanzaki, J.; Karapetian, G.; Karlen, D.; Kartvelishvili, V.; Kawagoe, K.; Kawamoto, T.; Keeler, R.K.; Kellogg, R.G.; Kennedy, B.W.; Kim, D.H.; Klein, K.; Klier, A.; Kobayashi, T.; Kobel, M.; Kokott, T.P.; Komamiya, S.; Kowalewski, Robert V.; Kress, T.; Krieger, P.; von Krogh, J.; Kuhl, T.; Kupper, M.; Kyberd, P.; Lafferty, G.D.; Landsman, H.; Lanske, D.; Lawson, I.; Layter, J.G.; Leins, A.; Lellouch, D.; Letts, J.; Levinson, L.; Liebisch, R.; Lillich, J.; List, B.; Littlewood, C.; Lloyd, A.W.; Lloyd, S.L.; Loebinger, F.K.; Long, G.D.; Losty, M.J.; Lu, J.; Ludwig, J.; Macchiolo, A.; Macpherson, A.; Mader, W.; Mannelli, M.; Marcellini, S.; Marchant, T.E.; Martin, A.J.; Martin, J.P.; Martinez, G.; Mashimo, T.; Mattig, Peter; McDonald, W.John; McKenna, J.; McMahon, T.J.; McPherson, R.A.; Meijers, F.; Mendez-Lorenzo, P.; Merritt, F.S.; Mes, H.; Michelini, A.; Mihara, S.; Mikenberg, G.; Miller, D.J.; Mohr, W.; Montanari, A.; Mori, T.; Nagai, K.; Nakamura, I.; Neal, H.A.; Nisius, R.; O'Neale, S.W.; Oakham, F.G.; Odorici, F.; Ogren, H.O.; Oh, A.; Okpara, A.; Oreglia, M.J.; Orito, S.; Pasztor, G.; Pater, J.R.; Patrick, G.N.; Patt, J.; Pfeifenschneider, P.; Pilcher, J.E.; Pinfold, J.; Plane, David E.; Poli, B.; Polok, J.; Pooth, O.; Przybycien, M.; Quadt, A.; Rembser, C.; Rick, H.; Robins, S.A.; Rodning, N.; Roney, J.M.; Rosati, S.; Roscoe, K.; Rossi, A.M.; Rozen, Y.; Runge, K.; Runolfsson, O.; Rust, D.R.; Sachs, K.; Saeki, T.; Sahr, O.; Sarkisyan, E.K.G.; Sbarra, C.; Schaile, A.D.; Schaile, O.; Scharff-Hansen, P.; Schmitt, S.; Schroder, Matthias; Schumacher, M.; Schwick, C.; Scott, W.G.; Seuster, R.; Shears, T.G.; Shen, B.C.; Shepherd-Themistocleous, C.H.; Sherwood, P.; Siroli, G.P.; Skuja, A.; Smith, A.M.; Snow, G.A.; Sobie, R.; Soldner-Rembold, S.; Spagnolo, S.; Sproston, M.; Stahl, A.; Stephens, K.; Stoll, K.; Strom, David M.; Strohmer, R.; Surrow, B.; Talbot, S.D.; Tarem, S.; Taylor, R.J.; Teuscher, R.; Thiergen, M.; Thomas, J.; Thomson, M.A.; Torrence, E.; Towers, S.; Trefzger, T.; Trigger, I.; Trocsanyi, Z.; Tsur, E.; Turner-Watson, M.F.; Ueda, I.; Vannerem, P.; Verzocchi, M.; Voss, H.; Vossebeld, J.; Waller, D.; Ward, C.P.; Ward, D.R.; Watkins, P.M.; Watson, A.T.; Watson, N.K.; Wells, P.S.; Wengler, T.; Wermes, N.; Wetterling, D.; White, J.S.; Wilson, G.W.; Wilson, J.A.; Wyatt, T.R.; Yamashita, S.; Zacek, V.; Zer-Zion, D.

    2001-01-01

    The rates are measured per hadronic Z decay for gluon splitting to bb(bar) quark pairs, g_bb, and of events containing two bb(bar) quark pairs, g_4b, using a sample of four-jet events selected from data collected with the OPAL detector. Events with an enhanced signal of gluon splitting to bb(bar) quarks are selected if two of the jets are close in phase-space and contain detached secondary vertices. For the event sample containing two bb(bar) quark pairs, three of the four jets are required to have a significantly detached secondary vertex. Information from the event topology is combined in a likelihood fit to extract the values of g_bb and g_4b, namely g_bb = (3.07 +- 0.53(stat) +- 0.97(syst))x10^-3 g_4b = (0.36 +- 0.17(stat) +- 0.27(syst))x10^-3

  9. Work stress and patient safety: observer-rated work stressors as predictors of characteristics of safety-related events reported by young nurses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfering, A; Semmer, N K; Grebner, S

    This study investigates the link between workplace stress and the 'non-singularity' of patient safety-related incidents in the hospital setting. Over a period of 2 working weeks 23 young nurses from 19 hospitals in Switzerland documented 314 daily stressful events using a self-observation method (pocket diaries); 62 events were related to patient safety. Familiarity of safety-related events and probability of recurrence, as indicators of non-singularity, were the dependent variables in multilevel regression analyses. Predictor variables were both situational (self-reported situational control, safety compliance) and chronic variables (job stressors such as time pressure, or concentration demands and job control). Chronic work characteristics were rated by trained observers. The most frequent safety-related stressful events included incomplete or incorrect documentation (40.3%), medication errors (near misses 21%), delays in delivery of patient care (9.7%), and violent patients (9.7%). Familiarity of events and probability of recurrence were significantly predicted by chronic job stressors and low job control in multilevel regression analyses. Job stressors and low job control were shown to be risk factors for patient safety. The results suggest that job redesign to enhance job control and decrease job stressors may be an important intervention to increase patient safety.

  10. Short gamma-ray burst formation rate from BATSE data using E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation and the minimum gravitational-wave event rate of a coalescing compact binary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yonetoku, Daisuke; Sawano, Tatsuya; Toyanago, Asuka [College of Science and Engineering, School of Mathematics and Physics, Kanazawa University, Kakuma, Kanazawa, Ishikawa 920-1192 (Japan); Nakamura, Takashi [Department of Physics, Kyoto University, Kyoto 606-8502 (Japan); Takahashi, Keitaro, E-mail: yonetoku@astro.s.kanazawa-u.ac.jp, E-mail: takashi@tap.scphys.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Faculty of Science, Kumamoto University, Kurokami, Kumamoto 860-8555 (Japan)

    2014-07-01

    Using 72 short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs) with well determined spectral data observed by BATSE, we determine their redshift and luminosity by applying the E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation for SGRBs found by Tsutsui et al. For 53 SGRBs with an observed flux brighter than 4 × 10{sup –6} erg cm{sup –2} s{sup –1}, the cumulative redshift distribution up to z = 1 agrees well with that of 22 Swift SGRBs. This suggests that the redshift determination by the E{sub p} -L{sub p} correlation for SGRBs works well. The minimum event rate at z = 0 is estimated as R{sub on−axis}{sup min}=6.3{sub −3.9}{sup +3.1}× 10{sup −10} events Mpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}, so that the minimum beaming angle is 0.°6-7.°8 assuming a merging rate of 10{sup –7}- 4 × 10{sup –6} events Mpc{sup –3} yr{sup –1} suggested from the binary pulsar data. Interestingly, this angle is consistent with that for SGRB 130603B of ∼4°-8°. On the other hand, if we assume a beaming angle of ∼6° suggested from four SGRBs with the observed beaming angle value, then the minimum event rate including off-axis SGRBs is estimated as R{sub all}{sup min}=1.15{sub −0.66}{sup +0.56} × 10{sup −7} events Mpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1}. If SGRBs are induced by the coalescence of binary neutron stars (NSs) and/or black holes (BHs), then this event rate leads to a minimum gravitational-wave detection rate of 3.8{sub −2.2}{sup +1.8} (146{sub −83}{sup +71}) events yr{sup −1} for an NS-NS (NS-BH) binary, respectively, by a worldwide network with KAGRA, advanced-LIGO, advanced-VIRGO, and GEO.

  11. Nonlinear response of hail precipitation rate to environmental moisture content: A real case modeling study of an episodic midlatitude severe convective event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingxin; Zhang, Fuqing; Zhang, Qinghong; Harrington, Jerry Y.; Kumjian, Matthew R.

    2017-07-01

    The dependence of hail production on initial moisture content in a simulated midlatitude episodic convective event occurred in northeast China on 10-11 June 2005 was investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with a double-moment microphysics scheme where both graupel and hail are considered. Three sensitivity experiments were performed by modifying the initial water vapor mixing ratio profile to 90% ("Q-10%"), 105% ("Q+5%"), and 110% ("Q+10%") of the initial conditions used for the control simulation. It was found that increasing the initial water vapor content caused the hail and total precipitation rates to increase during the first 5 h. The precipitation response to increasing water vapor content was monotonic for this first episode; however, for the event's second episode, the hail precipitation rate responds to the initial water vapor profile nonlinearly, while the total precipitation rate responds mostly monotonically. In particular, simulation Q+5% achieves the largest hail production rate while simulation Q+10% has the largest total precipitation rate. In contrast, during the second episode simulation Q-10% has the strongest vertical motion, produces the most cloud ice and snow, but has the lowest hail production. Analysis shows that increasing the initial moisture content directly increases the precipitation during the first episode, which subsequently induces a stronger, longer-lasting cold pool that limits the development of deep convection during the second episode.

  12. The Effect of Significant International Sports Events on Qualified Detoxification Treatment Outcome - Do Drop-Out Rates Change during UEFA European Championship?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Sofin

    Full Text Available No previous studies have evaluated the influence of significant international sports events on qualified detoxification treatment outcome. This prospective study examines the impact of the 2012 UEFA European Football Championship on inpatient treatment outcome of alcohol dependent patients. Hospital admission and premature drop-out rates of consecutively admitted alcohol dependent patients were determined before, during and immediately after the UEFA Championship in the year 2012. The admission rate of male patients increased significantly after the European Football Championship had ended whereas for female patients, no change in admission rate was found. Daily average discharge rate was calculated. No statistically relevant differences between the treatment days before, during and after the UEFA Championship was found for the discharges. During the tournament, exclusively male patients dropped out. Our results are consistent with an interpretation of an association between European Football Championship and detoxification treatment outcome. Further research to replicate and extend our findings is necessary.

  13. What a Shame: Increased Rates of OMS Resident Burnout May Be Related to the Frequency of Shamed Events During Training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shapiro, Michael C; Rao, Sowmya R; Dean, Jason; Salama, Andrew R

    2017-03-01

    Shame is an ineffective tool in residency education that often results in depression, isolation, and worse patient care. This study aimed to assess burnout, depersonalization, and personal achievement levels in current oral and maxillofacial surgery (OMS) residents, to assess the prevalence of the use of shame in OMS residency training, and to determine whether there is a relation between shame exposure and resident burnout, depersonalization, and personal achievement levels. An anonymous 20-question cross-sectional survey was developed incorporating the Maslach Burnout Index and a previously validated shame questionnaire and sent to all OMS program directors affiliated with the American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons for distribution among their respective residents in 2016. Univariate analyses were used to determine the distribution of the predictor (shame) and outcome (burnout) by gender and by frequency of shaming events. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to assess the relation of shame to burnout. A 2-sided P value less than .05 was considered statistically significant. Two hundred seventeen responses were received; 82% of respondents were men (n = 178), 95% were 25 to 34 years old (n = 206), and 58% (n = 126) were enrolled in a 4-year program. Frequently shamed residents were more likely to have depression (58 vs 22%; P < .0001), isolation (55 vs 22%; P < .0001), and poor job performance (50 vs 30%; P < .0001). Residents who were frequently shamed were more likely to experience moderate to severe burnout (odds ratio = 4.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-10.0; P < .001) and severe depersonalization (odds ratio = 5.1; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-12.0; P < .0001) than residents who had never or infrequently been shamed. There is a clear relation between the number of shame events and burnout and depersonalization levels. It is important to understand the negative impact that the experience of shame has on residents

  14. A Simple Axiomatization of Nonadditive Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.K. Sarin (Rakesh); P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive and ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The

  15. A simple axiomatization of nonadditive expected utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.P.; Sarin, R.K.

    1992-01-01

    This paper provides an extension of Savage's subjective expected utility theory for decisions under uncertainty. It includes in the set of events both unambiguous events for which probabilities are additive as well as ambiguous events for which probabilities are permitted to be nonadditive. The main

  16. Reduced glomerular filtration rate and its association with clinical outcome in older patients at risk of vascular events: secondary analysis.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ford, Ian

    2009-01-20

    Reduced glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in young and middle aged individuals. Associations with cardiovascular disease and mortality in older people are less clearly established. We aimed to determine the predictive value of the GFR for mortality and morbidity using data from the 5,804 participants randomized in the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER).

  17. Classification of radiation-hazardous objects by the ecological risk rate, based on the concept of the International Nuclear Event Scale (INES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vetrov, V.A.

    2003-01-01

    The principal categories of the radiation-hazardous objects (RHO) (nuclear fuel cycle plants (NFC including NPP); ships with nuclear engine units and appropriate service facilities; units related with nuclear weapons (design, manufacture, storage, etc.); contaminated territories in the result nuclear accidents and nuclear facilities tests; civil enterprises using the radioactive sources) with real accident risk from radioactive substances (RS) release into environment are considered. For assessment of the ecological risk rate from RHO the International Nuclear Event Scale implemented by IAEA for NPP use is suggested. By opinion of the specialists the INES criteria could be used for radiation events assessment to other RHO that gives possibility for RHO arrangement by the potential hazard rate for environment in the case of accident. For RHO qualitative classification the main parameters assessment influencing on radioactive release risk (amount (total activity) of radioactive substances; possibility of chain reaction development; strength of technological parameters, etc.) was suggested. On the base of the INES all above-listed RHO kinds in the case of accident could be conditionally separated into three categories: 1. most radiation dangerous objects, on which could be severe and serious radiation accidents (corresponding to 4-7 INES levels); 2. RHO on which there is risk for accidents accompanying with RS release (accidents up to 4 INES level). 3. RHO without practical possibility for event (incidents - not higher 3 INES level). Introduction of suggested classification gives possibility for RHO safety control requirements rationalizing to radiation monitoring purposes for both RHO and the local systems

  18. Validating a mass balance accounting approach to using 7Be measurements to estimate event-based erosion rates over an extended period at the catchment scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porto, Paolo; Walling, Des E.; Cogliandro, Vanessa; Callegari, Giovanni

    2016-07-01

    Use of the fallout radionuclides cesium-137 and excess lead-210 offers important advantages over traditional methods of quantifying erosion and soil redistribution rates. However, both radionuclides provide information on longer-term (i.e., 50-100 years) average rates of soil redistribution. Beryllium-7, with its half-life of 53 days, can provide a basis for documenting short-term soil redistribution and it has been successfully employed in several studies. However, the approach commonly used introduces several important constraints related to the timing and duration of the study period. A new approach proposed by the authors that overcomes these constraints has been successfully validated using an erosion plot experiment undertaken in southern Italy. Here, a further validation exercise undertaken in a small (1.38 ha) catchment is reported. The catchment was instrumented to measure event sediment yields and beryllium-7 measurements were employed to document the net soil loss for a series of 13 events that occurred between November 2013 and June 2015. In the absence of significant sediment storage within the catchment's ephemeral channel system and of a significant contribution from channel erosion to the measured sediment yield, the estimates of net soil loss for the individual events could be directly compared with the measured sediment yields to validate the former. The close agreement of the two sets of values is seen as successfully validating the use of beryllium-7 measurements and the new approach to obtain estimates of net soil loss for a sequence of individual events occurring over an extended period at the scale of a small catchment.

  19. An agent-based modelling framework to explore the role of social media and stubborn people on evacuation rates during flooding events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, E.; Cai, X.; Minsker, B. S.; Sun, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Flood warnings from various information sources are important for individuals to make evacuation decisions during a flood event. In this study, we develop a general opinion dynamics model to simulate how individuals update their flood hazard awareness when exposed to multiple information sources, including global broadcast, social media, and observations of neighbors' actions. The opinion dynamics model is coupled with a traffic model to simulate the evacuation processes of a residential community with a given transportation network. Through various scenarios, we investigate how social media affect the opinion dynamics and evacuation processes. We find that stronger social media can make evacuation processes more sensitive to the change of global broadcast and neighbor observations, and thus, impose larger uncertainty on evacuation rates (i.e., a large range of evacuation rates corresponding to sources of information). For instance, evacuation rates are lower when social media become more influential and individuals have less trust in global broadcast. Stubborn individuals can significantly affect the opinion dynamics and reduce evacuation rates. In addition, evacuation rates respond to the percentage of stubborn agents in a non-linear manner, i.e., above a threshold, the impact of stubborn agents will be intensified by stronger social media. These results highlight the role of social media in flood evacuation processes and the need to monitor social media so that misinformation can be corrected in a timely manner. The joint impacts of social media, quality of flood warnings and transportation capacity on evacuation rates are also discussed.

  20. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  1. Self rating of health is associated with stressful life events, social support and residency in East and West Berlin shortly after the fall of the wall.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hillen, T; Schaub, R; Hiestermann, A; Kirschner, W; Robra, B P

    2000-08-01

    To compare the health status and factors influencing the health of populations that had previously lived under different political systems. Cross sectional health and social survey using postal interviews. The relation between self reported health and psychosocial factors (stressful life events, social support, education, health promoting life style and health endangering behaviour) was investigated. To determine East-West differences a logistic regression model including interaction terms was fitted. East and West Berlin shortly after reunification 1991. Representative sample of 4430 Berlin residents aged 18 years and over (response rate 63%). Of all respondents, 15.4% rated their health as unsatisfactory. Residents of East Berlin rated their health more frequently as unsatisfactory than residents of West Berlin (Or(age adjusted)= 1.29, 95%CI 1.08, 1.52), these differences occurred predominantly in the over 60 years age group. Logistic regression showed significant independent effects of stressful life events, social support, education, and health promoting life style on self rated health. The effects of education and health promoting life style were observed to be more pronounced in the western part of Berlin. Old age and female sex showed a stronger association with unsatisfactory health status in the eastern part of Berlin. For subjects aged over 60 years there was evidence that living in the former East Berlin had an adverse effect on health compared with West Berlin. The impact of education and a health promoting lifestyle on self rated health seemed to be weaker in a former socialist society compared with that of a Western democracy. This study supports an "additive model" rather than a "buffering model" in explaining the effects of psychosocial factors on health.

  2. A Study on the Rate of Events and Water Loss in Water Distribution Network of Azna, Lorstan, Iran during 2008-2014 and Its Associated Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Adeli

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction and purpose: One of the problems of water distribution systems is loss of large volumes of water due to the occurrence of various events, which incurs a huge financial loss. Regarding this, the aim of the present study was to investigate the rate of events and water loss in the water distribution system and its related factors in Azna, Lorestan province, Iran, during 2008-2014. Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using census method, surveys, and field data collection. The amount of water production and consumption, the volumes of water loss, the number of accidents, type of pipe, pressure zone, as well as the age and length of the pipes recorded during 2008- 2014 were studied and analyzed. Results: According to the results, the highest (34.48% and lowest (20.57% amount of water losses happened in 2008 and 2014, respectively. High pressures in water systems had significant relationship with the number of events as well as the amount of water loss and water consumption. In addition, higher length and age of the pipes had a direct correlation with increased number of events and water loss. Furthermore, the maximum number of events were found to occur in the pipe embranchment and galvanized pipes. Conclusion: This study showed that of events was directly related to the length and age of the pipes, the water pressure, and number of branches. Also water loss quantity can be reduced by applying suitable management techniques in different sections. Furthermore, the water loss can be significantly controlled by taking such measures as reducing the pressure in the high-pressure zones, timely replacement of old and inappropriate pipes, appropriate fixing of the pipes, replacement of the galvanized pipe, and standard implementation of pipes and fittings.

  3. A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

    2018-03-01

    We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

  4. High event rate after a first percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with diabetes mellitus: results from the Swedish coronary angiography and angioplasty registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritsinger, Viveca; Saleh, Nawsad; Lagerqvist, Bo; Norhammar, Anna

    2015-06-01

    Patients with diabetes mellitus have reduced longevity after acute coronary syndromes and revascularization. However, knowledge of the long-term complication rates and patterns from an everyday life setting is lacking. Consecutive patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention included in the Swedish Coronary Angiography Angioplasty Registry (SCAAR) between 2006 and 2010 and with no previous revascularization were prospectively followed up for combined cardiovascular events (first of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) until December 31, 2010. The mean follow-up period was 920 days (SD, 530 days). Differences in background and procedural characteristics were adjusted for in a multivariate Cox regression model. Of 58 891 patients, mean age 67 years, 19% had diabetes mellitus; 27% of them were on diet treatment, 33% on oral glucose lowering, and 40% on insulin treatment. At admission, cardiovascular risk factors, multiple coronary vessel, and left main stem disease were more frequent in patients with diabetes mellitus and their revascularization was less often complete. The adjusted risk for combined cardiovascular events was higher in patients on insulin (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 1.63 [1.55-1.72]), on oral treatment (1.23 [1.15-1.31]), and on diet alone (1.21 [1.12-1.29]) compared with patients without diabetes mellitus. Insulin-treated patients ran an increased risk of restenosis (1.54 [1.39-1.71]) and stent thrombosis (1.56 [1.25-1.96]). The prognosis after a first percutaneous coronary intervention is more severe in patients with diabetes mellitus, in particular, in patients treated with insulin, with higher rates of mortality, cardiovascular events, and stent thrombosis over the following 5 years. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

  5. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  6. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  7. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  8. Incidence rates and risk factors for owner-reported adverse events following vaccination of dogs that did or did not receive a Leptospira vaccine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Peng Ju; Stephenson, Nicole; Foley, Janet E; Toussieng, Chuck R; Farver, Thomas B; Sykes, Jane E; Fleer, Katryna A

    2015-11-15

    To determine incidence rates (IRs) and potential risk factors for owner-reported adverse events (AEs) following vaccination of dogs that did or did not receive a Leptospira vaccine. Observational, retrospective cohort study. 130,557 dogs. Electronic records of mobile veterinary clinics from June 2012 to March 2013 were searched to identify dogs that received ≥ 1 vaccine in a given visit. Signalment data, vaccinations received, medications administered, and owner-reported clinical signs consistent with AEs that developed ≤ 5 days after vaccination were recorded. Associations between potential risk factors and owner-reported AEs were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. The IR/10,000 dogs for owner-reported postvaccination AEs was 26.3 (95% CI, 23.6 to 29.2), whereas that for dogs that received a Leptospira vaccine alone or with other vaccines was 53.0 (95% CI, 42.8 to 64.9). Significant factors for increasing or decreasing risk of AEs were as follows: receiving a Leptospira vaccine (adjusted OR, 2.13), age at vaccination 1 to dogs), and IRs for these events did not differ significantly between dogs vaccinated with or without a Leptospira component. The overall IR for owner-reported postvaccination AEs was low. Results suggested vaccination against Leptospira (an organism that can cause fatal disease) is safe in the majority of cases, slightly increasing the risk of owner-reported AEs but not associated with a significant increase in hypersensitivity reactions, compared with other vaccinations administered.

  9. [Prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate and GRACE risk score on major adverse cardiac events in patients with acute myocardial infarction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, L; Chen, Y D; Shi, Y J; Xue, H; Wang, J L

    2016-07-24

    To investigate the prediction value of deceleration capacity of rate (DC) and GRACE risk score for cardiovascular events in AMI patients. Consecutive AMI patients with sinus rhythm hospitalized in our department during August 2012 to August 2013 were included in this prospective study. 24-hour ECG Holter monitoring was performed within 1 week, and the DC value was analyzed, GRACE risk score was acquired with the application of GRACE risk score calculator. Patients were followed up for more than 1 year and major adverse cardiac events (MACE) were obtained. Analysised the Kaplan Meier survival according to DC and GRACE score risk stratification respectively. A total of 157 patients were enrolled in the study (average age: (58.9±12.7)years old). The average follow-up was (20.54±2.85) months. Mortality during follow-up was significantly higher in patients with DC>2.5 compared to patients with DC≤2.5 (Prisk stratification was 0.898 (95%CI 0.840-0.940, Prisk stratification was 0.786 (95%CI 0.714-0.847, Prisk stratification was 0.708 (95%CI 0.652-0.769, Prisk patients than those with intermediate and low risk patients according to DC risk stratification in intermediate and low risk patients by GRACE risk stratification (Prisk stratification is superior to GRACE risk score on outcome assessment in this AMI patient cohort.

  10. Significant event of patient radiation protection in radiotherapy (criterion 2.1): declaration and rating on the ASN-SFRO scale - ASN guide nr 16 - Release of the 01/01/2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    This document brings together all the tools for the management of a significant event in radiation protection concerning a patient in radiotherapy. It contains the declaration form, a model for the reporting of significant events, and the ASN-SFRO scale which allows the event to be rated. After a presentation of the regulatory context and references, of the scope of application, this guide addresses the declaration of a significant event: general principles, definition of the 2.1 criterion, examples, delays and modalities of declaration, addressees of a declaration. It addresses the reporting of a significant event: general principles, sending delays and modalities. It addresses the rating on the ASN-SFRO scale: general principles, scale, and rating process. The last part deals with public information

  11. Significant event of patient radiation protection in radiotherapy (criterion 2.1): declaration and rating on the ASN-SFRO scale - ASN guide no. 16 - Release of 17/07/2015

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    This document is an update of the previous version from October 2010. It brings together all the tools for the management of a significant event in radiation protection concerning a patient in radiotherapy. It contains the declaration form, a model for the reporting of significant events, and the ASN-SFRO scale which allows the event to be rated. After a presentation of the regulatory context and references, of the scope of application, this guide addresses the declaration of a significant event: general principles, definition of the 2.1 criterion, examples, delays and modalities of declaration, addressees of a declaration. It addresses the reporting of a significant event: general principles, sending delays and modalities. It addresses the rating on the ASN-SFRO scale: general principles, scale, and rating process. The last part deals with public information

  12. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  13. Impact of metabolic syndrome and its components on cardiovascular disease event rates in 4900 patients with type 2 diabetes assigned to placebo in the field randomised trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Scott Russell

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Patients with the metabolic syndrome are more likely to develop type 2 diabetes and may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD events.We aimed to establish whether CVD event rates were influenced by the metabolic syndrome as defined by the World Health Organisation (WHO, the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III and the International Diabetes Federation (IDF and to determine which component(s of the metabolic syndrome (MS conferred the highest cardiovascular risk in in 4900 patients with type 2 diabetes allocated to placebo in the Fenofibrate Intervention and Event Lowering in Diabetes (FIELD trial. Research design and methods We determined the influence of MS variables, as defined by NCEP ATPIII, IDF and WHO, on CVD risk over 5 years, after adjustment for CVD, sex, HbA1c, creatinine, and age, and interactions between the MS variables in a Cox proportional-hazards model. Results About 80% had hypertension, and about half had other features of the metabolic syndrome (IDF, ATPIII. There was no difference in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome variables between those with and without CVD at study entry. The WHO definition identified those at higher CVD risk across both sexes, all ages, and in those without prior CVD, while the ATPIII definition predicted risk only in those aged over 65 years and in men but not in women. Patients meeting the IDF definition did not have higher risk than those without IDF MS. CVD risk was strongly influenced by prior CVD, sex, age (particularly in women, baseline HbA1c, renal dysfunction, hypertension, and dyslipidemia (low HDL-c, triglycerides > 1.7 mmol/L. The combination of low HDL-c and marked hypertriglyceridemia (> 2.3 mmol/L increased CVD risk by 41%. Baseline systolic blood pressure increased risk by 16% per 10 mmHg in those with no prior CVD, but had no effect in those with CVD. In those without prior CVD, increasing numbers of

  14. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  15. Researches with the 'Fertexpert' model concerning the relationships between the efficiency indexes of the fertilizers usage in optimal economic rates and the agrochemical indexes of the soil and expected yields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Budoi, G.; Berca, M.; Borlan, Z.; Gavriluta, I.; Soare, M.; Danuso, F.; Bireescu, L.

    1999-01-01

    The 'Fertexpert' model allows undertaking researches concerning the variation of efficiency indexes for fertilizers usage in the case of many crops depending on the content of available soil nutrients (the values of soil agrochemical indexes - IA) and on the expected yield, R s , when fertilization are applied in optimal economic rates, DOE. The physical efficiency indexes calculated and researched are the following: the total physical yield increase, SFR (kg/ha), the specific average yield increase, SSp (kg/kg N, P 2 O 5 or K 2 O), the specific consumption of active substance (a.s.) from fertilizer, CSp (kg a.s./1 kg average yield increase). The economic efficiency indexes computed are: the total profit, in monetary units/ha, the specific profit, in monetary units/l monetary unit spent with fertilization, PSp, and in monetary units/kg a.s., PSpsa. The model also allows the study of DOE variation depending on R s and IA. Starting from the made calculations, there can be drown up specific graphics that can then be used in practice and for research purposes to. Refs. 6 (author)

  16. Combination of High Rate, Real-time GNSS and Accelerometer Observations - Preliminary Results Using a Shake Table and Historic Earthquake Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Michael; Passmore, Paul; Zimakov, Leonid; Raczka, Jared

    2014-05-01

    One of the fundamental requirements of an Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system (and other mission critical applications) is to quickly detect and process the information from the strong motion event, i.e. event detection and location, magnitude estimation, and the peak ground motion estimation at the defined targeted site, thus allowing the civil protection authorities to provide pre-programmed emergency response actions: Slow down or stop rapid transit trains and high-speed trains; shutoff of gas pipelines and chemical facilities; stop elevators at the nearest floor; send alarms to hospitals, schools and other civil institutions. An important question associated with the EEW system is: can we measure displacements in real time with sufficient accuracy? Scientific GNSS networks are moving towards a model of real-time data acquisition, storage integrity, and real-time position and displacement calculations. This new paradigm allows the integration of real-time, high-rate GNSS displacement information with acceleration and velocity data to create very high-rate displacement records. The mating of these two instruments allows the creation of a new, very high-rate (200 Hz) displacement observable that has the full-scale displacement characteristics of GNSS and high-precision dynamic motions of seismic technologies. It is envisioned that these new observables can be used for earthquake early warning studies and other mission critical applications, such as volcano monitoring, building, bridge and dam monitoring systems. REF TEK a Division of Trimble has developed the integrated GNSS/Accelerograph system, model 160-09SG, which consists of REF TEK's fourth generation electronics, a 147-01 high-resolution ANSS Class A accelerometer, and Trimble GNSS receiver and antenna capable of real time, on board Precise Point Positioning (PPP) techniques with satellite clock and orbit corrections delivered to the receiver directly via L-band satellite communications. The test we

  17. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  18. Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: II. Generation of poleward-moving events and polar cap patches by pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Lockwood

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter VHF and CUTLASS (Co-operative UK Twin-Located Auroral Sounding System HF radars, we study the formation of ionospheric polar cap patches and their relationship to the magnetopause reconnection pulses identified in the companion paper by Lockwood et al. (2005. It is shown that the poleward-moving, high-concentration plasma patches observed in the ionosphere by EISCAT on 23 November 1999, as reported by Davies et al. (2002, were often associated with corresponding reconnection rate pulses. However, not all such pulses generated a patch and only within a limited MLT range (11:00-12:00 MLT did a patch result from a reconnection pulse. Three proposed mechanisms for the production of patches, and of the concentration minima that separate them, are analysed and evaluated: (1 concentration enhancement within the patches by cusp/cleft precipitation; (2 plasma depletion in the minima between the patches by fast plasma flows; and (3 intermittent injection of photoionisation-enhanced plasma into the polar cap. We devise a test to distinguish between the effects of these mechanisms. Some of the events repeat too frequently to apply the test. Others have sufficiently long repeat periods and mechanism (3 is shown to be the only explanation of three of the longer-lived patches seen on this day. However, effect (2 also appears to contribute to some events. We conclude that plasma concentration gradients on the edges of the larger patches arise mainly from local time variations in the subauroral plasma, via the mechanism proposed by Lockwood et al. (2000.

  19. Harm beliefs and coping expectancies in youth with specific phobias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ollendick, Thomas H; Öst, Lars-Göran; Ryan, Sarah M; Capriola, Nicole N; Reuterskiöld, Lena

    2017-04-01

    Catastrophic beliefs and lowered coping expectancies are often present in individuals with specific phobias (SPs). The current study examined these beliefs and expectancies in 251 youth who received One Session Treatment for one of the three most common types of SP in youth (animals, natural environment, and situational). We compared the children's subjective beliefs to objective ratings of the likelihood of occurrence and the dangerousness of the feared events. Results revealed pre-treatment differences in the youths' beliefs across phobia types and age. Specifically, children with animal phobias rated their beliefs as more likely to occur than did children with environmental and situational phobias. In addition, older children rated their beliefs as more dangerous than younger children. However, regardless of phobia type or child age, the beliefs improved following treatment. Changes in catastrophic beliefs and coping expectancies were related to changes in clinical severity following treatment but not 6-months following treatment. Moreover, at pre-treatment, children viewed their beliefs as significantly more catastrophic and likely to occur than did independent coders of these beliefs; however, these differences were no longer evident following treatment. Clinical implications are discussed, highlighting how changes in beliefs and expectancies might be associated with treatment outcomes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Is There a Downside to Anticipating the Upside? Children's and Adults' Reasoning About How Prior Expectations Shape Future Emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lara, Karen Hjortsvang; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Kramer, Hannah J

    2017-11-24

    Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 205) responded to vignettes involving three individuals with different expectations (high, low, and no) for a future event. Participants judged characters' pre-outcome emotions, as well as predicted and explained their feelings following three events (positive, attenuated, and negative). Although adults rated high-expectation characters more negatively than low-expectation characters after all outcomes, children shared this intuition starting at 6-7 years for negative outcomes, 8-10 years for attenuated, and never for positive. Comparison to baseline (no expectation) indicated that understanding the costs of high expectations emerges first and remains more robust across age than recognition that low expectations carry benefits. Explanation analyses further clarified this developing awareness about the relation between thoughts and emotions over time. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

  1. Time Course and Accumulated Risk of Severe Urinary Adverse Events After High- Versus Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy With or Without External Beam Radiation Therapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tward, Jonathan D., E-mail: Jonathan.Tward@hci.utah.edu [Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Jarosek, Stephanie; Chu, Haitao [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States); Thorpe, Cameron; Shrieve, Dennis C. [Huntsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah (United States); Elliott, Sean [University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota (United States)

    2016-08-01

    Purpose: Severe urinary adverse events (UAEs) include surgical treatment of urethral stricture, urinary incontinence, and radiation cystitis. We compared the incidence of grade 3 UAEs, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, after low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy, as well as after LDR plus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and HDR plus EBRT. Methods and Materials: Men aged >65 years with nonmetastatic prostate cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database who were treated with LDR (n=12,801), HDR (n=685), LDR plus EBRT (n=8518), or HDR plus EBRT (n=2392). The populations were balanced by propensity weighting, and the Kaplan-Meier incidence of severe UAEs was compared. Propensity-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the adjusted hazard of UAEs. These UAEs were compared with those in a cohort of men not treated for prostate cancer. Results: Median follow-up was 4.3 years. At 8 years, the propensity-weighted cumulative UAE incidence was highest after HDR plus EBRT (26.6% [95% confidence interval, 23.8%-29.7%]) and lowest after LDR (15.7% [95% confidence interval, 14.8%-16.6%]). The absolute excess risk over nontreated controls at 8 years was 1.9%, 3.8%, 8.4%, and 12.9% for LDR, HDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT, respectively. These represent numbers needed to harm of 53, 26, 12, and 8 persons, respectively. The additional risk of development of a UAE related to treatment for LDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT was greatest within the 2 years after treatment and then continued to decline over time. Beyond 4 years, the risk of development of a new severe UAE matched the baseline risk of the control population for all treatments. Conclusions: Toxicity differences were observed between LDR and HDR, but the differences did not meet statistical significance. However, combination radiation therapy (either HDR plus EBRT or LDR plus

  2. Time Course and Accumulated Risk of Severe Urinary Adverse Events After High- Versus Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy With or Without External Beam Radiation Therapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tward, Jonathan D.; Jarosek, Stephanie; Chu, Haitao; Thorpe, Cameron; Shrieve, Dennis C.; Elliott, Sean

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: Severe urinary adverse events (UAEs) include surgical treatment of urethral stricture, urinary incontinence, and radiation cystitis. We compared the incidence of grade 3 UAEs, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, after low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy, as well as after LDR plus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and HDR plus EBRT. Methods and Materials: Men aged >65 years with nonmetastatic prostate cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare database who were treated with LDR (n=12,801), HDR (n=685), LDR plus EBRT (n=8518), or HDR plus EBRT (n=2392). The populations were balanced by propensity weighting, and the Kaplan-Meier incidence of severe UAEs was compared. Propensity-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the adjusted hazard of UAEs. These UAEs were compared with those in a cohort of men not treated for prostate cancer. Results: Median follow-up was 4.3 years. At 8 years, the propensity-weighted cumulative UAE incidence was highest after HDR plus EBRT (26.6% [95% confidence interval, 23.8%-29.7%]) and lowest after LDR (15.7% [95% confidence interval, 14.8%-16.6%]). The absolute excess risk over nontreated controls at 8 years was 1.9%, 3.8%, 8.4%, and 12.9% for LDR, HDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT, respectively. These represent numbers needed to harm of 53, 26, 12, and 8 persons, respectively. The additional risk of development of a UAE related to treatment for LDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT was greatest within the 2 years after treatment and then continued to decline over time. Beyond 4 years, the risk of development of a new severe UAE matched the baseline risk of the control population for all treatments. Conclusions: Toxicity differences were observed between LDR and HDR, but the differences did not meet statistical significance. However, combination radiation therapy (either HDR plus EBRT or LDR plus

  3. Time Course and Accumulated Risk of Severe Urinary Adverse Events After High- Versus Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy With or Without External Beam Radiation Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tward, Jonathan D; Jarosek, Stephanie; Chu, Haitao; Thorpe, Cameron; Shrieve, Dennis C; Elliott, Sean

    2016-08-01

    Severe urinary adverse events (UAEs) include surgical treatment of urethral stricture, urinary incontinence, and radiation cystitis. We compared the incidence of grade 3 UAEs, according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, after low-dose-rate (LDR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy, as well as after LDR plus external beam radiation therapy (EBRT) and HDR plus EBRT. Men aged >65 years with nonmetastatic prostate cancer were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare database who were treated with LDR (n=12,801), HDR (n=685), LDR plus EBRT (n=8518), or HDR plus EBRT (n=2392). The populations were balanced by propensity weighting, and the Kaplan-Meier incidence of severe UAEs was compared. Propensity-weighted Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare the adjusted hazard of UAEs. These UAEs were compared with those in a cohort of men not treated for prostate cancer. Median follow-up was 4.3 years. At 8 years, the propensity-weighted cumulative UAE incidence was highest after HDR plus EBRT (26.6% [95% confidence interval, 23.8%-29.7%]) and lowest after LDR (15.7% [95% confidence interval, 14.8%-16.6%]). The absolute excess risk over nontreated controls at 8 years was 1.9%, 3.8%, 8.4%, and 12.9% for LDR, HDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT, respectively. These represent numbers needed to harm of 53, 26, 12, and 8 persons, respectively. The additional risk of development of a UAE related to treatment for LDR, LDR plus EBRT, and HDR plus EBRT was greatest within the 2 years after treatment and then continued to decline over time. Beyond 4 years, the risk of development of a new severe UAE matched the baseline risk of the control population for all treatments. Toxicity differences were observed between LDR and HDR, but the differences did not meet statistical significance. However, combination radiation therapy (either HDR plus EBRT or LDR plus EBRT) increases the risk of severe UAEs compared with HDR

  4. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  5. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  6. Three Experiments Examining the Use of Electroencephalogram,Event-Related Potentials, and Heart-Rate Variability for Real-Time Human-Centered Adaptive Automation Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Parasuraman, Raja; Freeman, Frederick G.; Scerbo, Mark W.; Mikulka, Peter J.; Pope, Alan T.

    2003-01-01

    Adaptive automation represents an advanced form of human-centered automation design. The approach to automation provides for real-time and model-based assessments of human-automation interaction, determines whether the human has entered into a hazardous state of awareness and then modulates the task environment to keep the operator in-the-loop , while maintaining an optimal state of task engagement and mental alertness. Because adaptive automation has not matured, numerous challenges remain, including what the criteria are, for determining when adaptive aiding and adaptive function allocation should take place. Human factors experts in the area have suggested a number of measures including the use of psychophysiology. This NASA Technical Paper reports on three experiments that examined the psychophysiological measures of event-related potentials, electroencephalogram, and heart-rate variability for real-time adaptive automation. The results of the experiments confirm the efficacy of these measures for use in both a developmental and operational role for adaptive automation design. The implications of these results and future directions for psychophysiology and human-centered automation design are discussed.

  7. Resting heart rate associates with one-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with acute coronary syndrome after percutaneous coronary intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shao-Li; Wang, Cheng-Long; Wang, Pei-Li; Xu, Hao; Du, Jian-Peng; Zhang, Da-Wu; Gao, Zhu-Ye; Zhang, Lei; Fu, Chang-Geng; Chen, Ke-Ji; Shi, Da-Zhuo

    2016-03-01

    The study was to access the association between resting heart rate (RHR) and one-year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). Patients with ACS after PCI (n = 808) were prospectively followed-up for MACE. RHR was obtained from electrocardiogram. MACE was defined as a composite of cardiac death, nonfatal recurrent myocardial infarction, ischemic-driven revascularization, and ischemic stroke. The association between RHR and one-year risk of MACE was assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression model. Compared with patients with RHR >76 bpm, the adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) was 0.51 (95% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.23-1.14; P = 0.100) for patients with RHR 76 bpm were at higher risk of MACE during one-year follow-up compared with patients with RHR 61-76 bpm. An elevated RHR ≥ 61 bpm was associated with increased risk of one-year MACE in ACS patients. © 2015 by the Society for Experimental Biology and Medicine.

  8. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  9. Anomalous vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, H.

    1986-01-01

    The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

  10. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  11. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  12. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  13. Behavior, Expectations and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jr, Murray; Rashotte, Lisa Slattery

    2010-01-01

    We predict effects of behavior patterns and status on performance expectations and group inequality using an integrated theory developed by Fisek, Berger and Norman (1991). We next test those predictions using new experimental techniques we developed to control behavior patterns as independent variables. In a 10-condition experiment, predictions…

  14. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...

  15. Reports of Perceived Adverse Events of Stimulant Medication on Cognition, Motivation, and Mood: Qualitative Investigation and the Generation of Items for the Medication and Cognition Rating Scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kovshoff, H.; Banaschewski, T.; Buitelaar, J.K.; Carucci, S.; Coghill, D.; Danckaerts, M.; Dittmann, R.W.; Falissard, B.; Grimshaw, D.G.; Hollis, C.; Inglis, S.; Konrad, K.; Liddle, E.; McCarthy, S.; Nagy, P.; Thompson, M.; Wong, I.C.; Zuddas, A.; Sonuga-Barke, E.J.

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: There is no questionnaire to specifically monitor perceived adverse events of methylphenidate (MPH) on cognition, motivation, and mood. The current study therefore had two goals. First, to harvest accounts of such putative events from transcripts of interviews in samples enriched for such

  16. Single event upsets correlated with environment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vampola, A.L.; Albin, F.; Lauriente, M.; Wilkinson, D.C.; Allen, J.

    1994-01-01

    Single Event Upset rates on satellites in different Earth orbits are correlated with solar protons and geomagnetic activity and also with the NASA AP8 proton model to extract information about satellite anomalies caused by the space environment. An extensive discussion of the SEU data base from the TOMS solid state recorder and an algorithm for correcting spontaneous upsets in it are included as an Appendix. SAMPEX and TOMS, which have the same memory chips, have similar normalized responses in the South Atlantic Anomaly. SEU rates due to solar protons over the polar caps are within expectations. No geomagnetic activity effects can be discerned in the SEU rates

  17. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  18. Expectations from the child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Atabek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transition from agricultural society to industry society, from industrial society to science society has taken place. In all these societies, expectations from children also vary. In the agricultural community, human labor is based on arm power. For this reason, expectation from children is to increase work power. Having more children is the basis for the expectations in this community to see that the boy is valuable because he has increased his work power. In the industrial society, the power of the arm changed its place with the machine power. The knowledgeable person is not a family grown-up but a foreman. Childhood was distinguished during this period. It has been investigated that the child has a separate development.  In the information society, communication and information has never been as fast as it is in this period.  The widespread use of the Internet, and the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter are in this period. In this society, families are panicked to prepare a future in their own heads for their children. Because the parents thought of their children, they decided about the child's life instead of the child making these decisions. This has had a negative impact on children's sense of autonomy and their ability to take responsibility. To change this, parents should train their children in auto control and develop children's impulse control skills. The children should be able to understand their emotions and make decisions by reasoning and reasoning.

  19. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  20. Adverse outcomes of anticoagulant use among hospitalized patients with chronic kidney disease: a comparison of the rates of major bleeding events between unfractionated heparin and enoxaparin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatemeh Saheb Sharif-Askari

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Anticoagulation therapy is usually required in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD for treatment or prevention of thromboembolic diseases. However, this benefit could easily be offset by the risk of bleeding. OBJECTIVES: To determine the incidence of adverse outcomes of anticoagulants in hospitalized patients with CKD, and to compare the rates of major bleeding events between the unfractionated heparin (UFH and enoxaparin users. METHODS: One year prospective observational study was conducted in patients with CKD stages 3 to 5 (estimated GFR, 10-59 ml/min/1.73 m(2 who were admitted to the renal unit of Dubai Hospital. Propensity scores for the use of anticoagulants, estimated for each of the 488 patients, were used to identify a cohort of 117 pairs of patients. Cox regression method was used to estimate association between anticoagulant use and adverse outcomes. RESULTS: Major bleeding occurred in 1 in 3 patients who received anticoagulation during hospitalization (hazard ratio [HR], 4.61 [95% confidence interval [CI], 2.05-10.35]. Compared with enoxaparin users, patients who received anticoagulation with unfractionated heparin had a lower mean [SD] serum level of platelet counts (139.95 [113] × 10(3/µL vs 205.56 [123] × 10(3/µL; P<0.001, and had a higher risk of major bleeding (HR, 4.79 [95% CI, 1.85-12.36]. Furthermore, compared with those who did not receive anticoagulants, patients who did had a higher in-hospital mortality (HR, 2.54 [95% CI, 1.03-6.25]; longer length of hospitalization (HR, 1.04 [95% CI, 1.01-1.06]; and higher hospital readmission at 30 days (HR, 1.79 [95% CI, 1.10-2.91]. CONCLUSIONS: Anticoagulation among hospitalized patients with CKD was significantly associated with an increased risk of bleeding and in-hospital mortality. Hence, intensive monitoring and preventive measures such as laboratory monitoring and/or dose adjustment are warranted.

  1. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  2. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  3. Agreeing on expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Bentsen, Martin Juul

    Commitment and trust are often mentioned as important aspects of creating a perception of reliability between counterparts. In the context of university-industry collaborations (UICs), agreeing on ambitions and expectations are adamant to achieving outcomes that are equally valuable to all parties...... involved. Despite this, our initial probing indicated that such covenants rarely exist. As such, this paper draws on project management theory and proposes the possibility of structuring assessments of potential partners before university-industry collaborations are brought to life. Our analysis suggests...

  4. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-10-19

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue-stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s(-1)) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations.

  5. Temporal expectancy in the context of a theory of visual attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vangkilde, Signe; Petersen, Anders; Bundesen, Claus

    2013-01-01

    Temporal expectation is expectation with respect to the timing of an event such as the appearance of a certain stimulus. In this paper, temporal expectancy is investigated in the context of the theory of visual attention (TVA), and we begin by summarizing the foundations of this theoretical framework. Next, we present a parametric experiment exploring the effects of temporal expectation on perceptual processing speed in cued single-stimulus letter recognition with unspeeded motor responses. The length of the cue–stimulus foreperiod was exponentially distributed with one of six hazard rates varying between blocks. We hypothesized that this manipulation would result in a distinct temporal expectation in each hazard rate condition. Stimulus exposures were varied such that both the temporal threshold of conscious perception (t0 ms) and the perceptual processing speed (v letters s−1) could be estimated using TVA. We found that the temporal threshold t0 was unaffected by temporal expectation, but the perceptual processing speed v was a strikingly linear function of the logarithm of the hazard rate of the stimulus presentation. We argue that the effects on the v values were generated by changes in perceptual biases, suggesting that our perceptual biases are directly related to our temporal expectations. PMID:24018716

  6. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  7. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  8. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  9. An event database for rotational seismology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvermoser, Johannes; Hadziioannou, Celine; Hable, Sarah; Chow, Bryant; Krischer, Lion; Wassermann, Joachim; Igel, Heiner

    2016-04-01

    The ring laser sensor (G-ring) located at Wettzell, Germany, routinely observes earthquake-induced rotational ground motions around a vertical axis since its installation in 2003. Here we present results from a recently installed event database which is the first that will provide ring laser event data in an open access format. Based on the GCMT event catalogue and some search criteria, seismograms from the ring laser and the collocated broadband seismometer are extracted and processed. The ObsPy-based processing scheme generates plots showing waveform fits between rotation rate and transverse acceleration and extracts characteristic wavefield parameters such as peak ground motions, noise levels, Love wave phase velocities and waveform coherence. For each event, these parameters are stored in a text file (json dictionary) which is easily readable and accessible on the website. The database contains >10000 events starting in 2007 (Mw>4.5). It is updated daily and therefore provides recent events at a time lag of max. 24 hours. The user interface allows to filter events for epoch, magnitude, and source area, whereupon the events are displayed on a zoomable world map. We investigate how well the rotational motions are compatible with the expectations from the surface wave magnitude scale. In addition, the website offers some python source code examples for downloading and processing the openly accessible waveforms.

  10. Role of blood pressure and other variables in the differential cardiovascular event rates noted in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulter, Neil R; Wedel, Hans; Dahlöf, Björn

    2005-01-01

    Results of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA) show significantly lower rates of coronary and stroke events in individuals allocated an amlodipine-based combination drug regimen than in those allocated an atenolol-based combination drug regimen (HR...

  11. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-12-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  12. INES - The International Nuclear Event Scale. User's manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials. This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  13. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-02-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled ''Clarification of Issues Raised''. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request

  14. Customer experiences and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

  15. Reports of Perceived Adverse Events of Stimulant Medication on Cognition, Motivation, and Mood: Qualitative Investigation and the Generation of Items for the Medication and Cognition Rating Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovshoff, Hanna; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Carucci, Sara; Coghill, David; Danckaerts, Marina; Dittmann, Ralf W.; Falissard, Bruno; Grimshaw, Dina Gojkovic; Hollis, Chris; Inglis, Sarah; Konrad, Kerstin; Liddle, Elizabeth; McCarthy, Suzanne; Nagy, Peter; Thompson, Margaret; Wong, Ian C.K.; Zuddas, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Objective: There is no questionnaire to specifically monitor perceived adverse events of methylphenidate (MPH) on cognition, motivation, and mood. The current study therefore had two goals. First, to harvest accounts of such putative events from transcripts of interviews in samples enriched for such potential experiences. Second, to use the derived data to generate items for a new questionnaire that can be used for monitoring such events in medication trials or routine clinical care. Methods: Following a literature search aimed at identifying associations between MPH and cognition and/or motivation, a qualitative semistructured interview was designed to focus specifically on the domains of cognition (i.e., reasoning, depth/breadth of thinking, intellectual capacity, and creativity) and motivation (i.e., drive, effort, and attitudes toward rewards/incentives). Interviews were conducted with 45 participants drawn from the following four groups: (a) clinicians, child and adolescent psychiatrists, and pediatricians specializing in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (n = 15); (2) teachers, with experience of teaching at least 10 medicated children with ADHD (n = 10); (3) parents of children with ADHD (n = 8) treated with MPH; and (4) adolescents/adults with ADHD (n = 12). Purposeful sampling was used to selectively recruit ADHD participants whose histories suggested a degree of vulnerability to MPH adverse events. Data were analyzed using a deductive approach to content analysis. Results: While we probed purposefully for cognitive and motivational adverse events, a third domain, related to mood, emerged from the reports. Therefore, three domains, each with a number of subdomains, were identified from the interview accounts: (i) Cognition (six subdomains; attention/concentration, changes in thinking, reduced creativity, sensory overload, memory, slower processing speed); (ii) motivation (four subdomains; loss of intrinsic motivation

  16. Reports of Perceived Adverse Events of Stimulant Medication on Cognition, Motivation, and Mood: Qualitative Investigation and the Generation of Items for the Medication and Cognition Rating Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovshoff, Hanna; Banaschewski, Tobias; Buitelaar, Jan K; Carucci, Sara; Coghill, David; Danckaerts, Marina; Dittmann, Ralf W; Falissard, Bruno; Grimshaw, Dina Gojkovic; Hollis, Chris; Inglis, Sarah; Konrad, Kerstin; Liddle, Elizabeth; McCarthy, Suzanne; Nagy, Peter; Thompson, Margaret; Wong, Ian C K; Zuddas, Alessandro; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J S

    2016-08-01

    There is no questionnaire to specifically monitor perceived adverse events of methylphenidate (MPH) on cognition, motivation, and mood. The current study therefore had two goals. First, to harvest accounts of such putative events from transcripts of interviews in samples enriched for such potential experiences. Second, to use the derived data to generate items for a new questionnaire that can be used for monitoring such events in medication trials or routine clinical care. Following a literature search aimed at identifying associations between MPH and cognition and/or motivation, a qualitative semistructured interview was designed to focus specifically on the domains of cognition (i.e., reasoning, depth/breadth of thinking, intellectual capacity, and creativity) and motivation (i.e., drive, effort, and attitudes toward rewards/incentives). Interviews were conducted with 45 participants drawn from the following four groups: (a) clinicians, child and adolescent psychiatrists, and pediatricians specializing in attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) (n = 15); (2) teachers, with experience of teaching at least 10 medicated children with ADHD (n = 10); (3) parents of children with ADHD (n = 8) treated with MPH; and (4) adolescents/adults with ADHD (n = 12). Purposeful sampling was used to selectively recruit ADHD participants whose histories suggested a degree of vulnerability to MPH adverse events. Data were analyzed using a deductive approach to content analysis. While we probed purposefully for cognitive and motivational adverse events, a third domain, related to mood, emerged from the reports. Therefore, three domains, each with a number of subdomains, were identified from the interview accounts: (i) Cognition (six subdomains; attention/concentration, changes in thinking, reduced creativity, sensory overload, memory, slower processing speed); (ii) motivation (four subdomains; loss of intrinsic motivation for goal-directed activities, external

  17. Expectations, economics and environment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holliday, F

    1992-06-01

    Professor Sir Frederick Holliday, an expert on environmental matters reviews progress in the UK, Europe and internationally on environmental issues. He mentions the UK government's targets and commitments of the White Paper, 'This common inheritance', EC legislation on environmental matters, the importance of the Rio 'earth summit' on exerting a pull on government policies the necessary links between safety and the environment (illustrating this with events in the oil industry) and the importance of attaining, inexpensive, readily accessible energy supply for the third world. He considers that increased use of natural gas and of renewable resources, together with conservation measures and the greater use of nuclear power is the best scenario for tackling the problems of poverty and pollution. 20 refs.

  18. Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Graat, Julien de

    2012-01-01

    A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb -1 of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of √(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between ∝ 20% and ∝ 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between ∝ 42% and ∝ 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26±5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72±15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

  19. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  20. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  1. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  2. Effects of Teacher Expectancies: Myth or Reality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aron, Robert; And Others

    This study manipulates the variables of children's ethnicity, sex, and ability to ascertain the nature of the interaction relationship between teacher expectancies and student performance. The subjects were urban teachers who were asked to read case histories and then rate the child on a Likert-type family and pupil behavior rating form and a…

  3. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  4. Self rating of health is associated with stressful life events, social support and residency in East and West Berlin shortly after the fall of the wall

    OpenAIRE

    Hillen, T.; Schaub, R.; Hiestermann, A.; Kirschner, W.; Robra, B.

    2000-01-01

    STUDY OBJECTIVE—To compare the health status and factors influencing the health of populations that had previously lived under different political systems.
DESIGN—Cross sectional health and social survey using postal interviews. The relation between self reported health and psychosocial factors (stressful life events, social support, education, health promoting life style and health endangering behaviour) was investigated. To determine East-West differences a logistic regression model includi...

  5. Transient deformation in the Asal-Ghoubbet Rift (Djibouti) since the 1978 diking event: Is deformation controlled by magma supply rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smittarello, D.; Grandin, R.; de Chabalier, J. B.; Doubre, C.; Deprez, A.; Masson, F.; Socquet, A.; Ibrahim Ahmed, S.

    2016-12-01

    Within the Afar Depression, the Asal-Ghoubbet Rift (AG Rift)in Djibouti lies in the subaerial continuation of the Aden ridge system. This segment constitutes a natural laboratory to study rifting processes and mechanisms involved in continental breakup and oceanic spreading. In November 1978, an exceptional rifting event occurred in the AG Rift. Regularly upgraded and improved geodetic technology has been used to monitor this event and the postdiking deformation. In light of recent results obtained for the Manda Hararo-Dabbahu rifting event (2005-2010), we propose that the horizontal and vertical geodetic data can be modeled with a double source, involving a dike-like inflation component aligned along the rift axis and a spherical pressure source located at midsegment below the Fieale caldera. By revisiting the codiking data, we propose that the reservoir below Fieale could have fed, at least partially, the 1978 injection and the contemporaneous Ardoukoba eruption and potentially induced local subsidence due to magma draining out of the central reservoir. As an alternative to previously proposed viscoelastic relaxation models, we reinterpret postdiking observations using a purely elastic rheology. We determine the relative contribution of a midsegment reservoir inflation and a dike-like opening component, together with their respective time evolutions. Our results suggest that interactions between steadily accumulating tectonic strain and temporal variations in melt supply to the shallow magma plumbing system below the AG Rift may entirely explain the geodetic observations and that viscoelastic deformation processes played a minor role in the 30 years following the 1978 rifting event.

  6. How Can Event Companies Use Facebook’s Ad Manager to Optimise the Click-Through-Rates of their Native Instagram Ads?

    OpenAIRE

    Absillis, Eline

    2016-01-01

    Marketers have come to realise that an abundance of potential customers can be reached through Facebook advertising. Although a new player, Instagram is quickly catching up to Facebook’s success with its native ads. Despite this, there is a scarcity in the amount of academic literature that explores the use of them. This thesis aims to rectify that, by contributing to the academic discourse surrounding Instagram ads. Shownight, a live event promotion company, had yet to run ads on Instagram. ...

  7. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  8. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  9. Event Investigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Korosec, D.

    2000-01-01

    The events in the nuclear industry are investigated from the license point of view and from the regulatory side too. It is well known the importance of the event investigation. One of the main goals of such investigation is to prevent the circumstances leading to the event and the consequences of the event. The protection of the nuclear workers against nuclear hazard, and the protection of general public against dangerous effects of an event could be achieved by systematic approach to the event investigation. Both, the nuclear safety regulatory body and the licensee shall ensure that operational significant events are investigated in a systematic and technically sound manner to gather information pertaining to the probable causes of the event. One of the results should be appropriate feedback regarding the lessons of the experience to the regulatory body, nuclear industry and general public. In the present paper a general description of systematic approach to the event investigation is presented. The systematic approach to the event investigation works best where cooperation is present among the different divisions of the nuclear facility or regulatory body. By involving management and supervisors the safety office can usually improve their efforts in the whole process. The end result shall be a program which serves to prevent events and reduce the time and efforts solving the root cause which initiated each event. Selection of the proper method for the investigation and an adequate review of the findings and conclusions lead to the higher level of the overall nuclear safety. (author)

  10. Expectations from implementers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biurrun, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2008-01-01

    Enrique Biurrun (DBE) presented the expectations from the implementer. He explained that the implementer needs a framework to successfully develop a repository which means the definition of requirements and guidance (for repository system development, analysis, licences, etc.) as well as the decision-making process (stepwise approach, roles of different players, etc.). He also needs a reasonable stability of the regulatory system. The regulatory framework should be developed in a clear, reasonable and consistent manner. In the context of the long duration of the project (100 years) there will be technological progress. In that context E. Biurrun asked what is the meaning of best practice. How can one deal with judgmental issues in a step-wise approach? Regulatory criteria and guidance must deal with the repository system for which an iterative process is necessary where dialogue is needed with the regulator despite the need to maintain his independence. The safety case, which is a periodic documentation of the status of the project, must provide a synthesis of the underlying scientific understanding and evidence and becomes part of the design process through feedback. E. Biurrun pointed out that safety is not calculated or assessed, but designed and built into the repository system (by geological and engineered barriers). He stressed the importance of the operational aspects since the implementer has to build and operate the repository safely. He asked the question: is it 'Ethical' to buy 'peace of mind' of some stakeholders with casualties of the implementer's staff because of mining accidents if the repository is left open during a phase of reversibility. The implementer needs dependable criteria, legal security and investment security. He interpreted the 'Precautionary principle' as meaning 'do it now'. Long-lasting solutions are very uncertain. Will we heave the money and the technology to do it later? He made some reflections regarding the ethical need to

  11. Five-Year Safety Data for More than 55,000 Subjects following Breast Implantation: Comparison of Rare Adverse Event Rates with Silicone Implants versus National Norms and Saline Implants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Navin; Picha, George J; Hardas, Bhushan; Schumacher, Andrew; Murphy, Diane K

    2017-10-01

    The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has required postapproval studies of silicone breast implants to evaluate the incidence of rare adverse events over 10 years after implantation. The Breast Implant Follow-Up Study is a large 10-year study (>1000 U.S. sites) evaluating long-term safety following primary augmentation, revision-augmentation, primary reconstruction, or revision-reconstruction with Natrelle round silicone breast implants compared with national norms and outcomes with saline implants. Targeted adverse events in subjects followed for 5 to 8 years included connective tissue diseases, neurologic diseases, cancer, and suicide. The safety population comprised 55,279 women (primary augmentation, n = 42,873; revision-augmentation, n = 6837; primary reconstruction, n = 4828; and revision-reconstruction, n = 741). No targeted adverse events occurred at significantly greater rates in silicone implant groups versus national norms across all indications. The standardized incidence rate (observed/national norm) for all indications combined was 1.4 for cervical/vulvar cancer, 0.8 for brain cancer, 0.3 for multiple sclerosis, and 0.1 for lupus/lupus-like syndrome. Silicone implants did not significantly increase the risk for any targeted adverse events compared with saline implants. The risk of death was similar with silicone versus saline implants across all indications. The suicide rate (10.6 events per 100,000 person-years) was not significantly higher than the national norm. No implant-related deaths occurred. Results from 5 to 8 years of follow-up for a large number of subjects confirmed the safety of Natrelle round silicone implants, with no increased risk of systemic disease or suicide versus national norms or saline implants. Therapeutic, II.

  12. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  13. Role of blood pressure and other variables in the differential cardiovascular event rates noted in the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulter, Neil R; Wedel, Hans; Dahlöf, Björn

    2005-01-01

    Results of the Anglo-Scandinavian Cardiac Outcomes Trial-Blood Pressure Lowering Arm (ASCOT-BPLA) show significantly lower rates of coronary and stroke events in individuals allocated an amlodipine-based combination drug regimen than in those allocated an atenolol-based combination drug regimen (HR...... 0.86 and 0.77, respectively). Our aim was to assess to what extent these differences were due to significant differences in blood pressures and in other variables noted after randomisation....

  14. Cardiovascular disease (CVD and chronic kidney disease (CKD event rates in HIV-positive persons at high predicted CVD and CKD risk: A prospective analysis of the D:A:D observational study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark A Boyd

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D study has developed predictive risk scores for cardiovascular disease (CVD and chronic kidney disease (CKD, defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 events in HIV-positive people. We hypothesized that participants in D:A:D at high (>5% predicted risk for both CVD and CKD would be at even greater risk for CVD and CKD events.We included all participants with complete risk factor (covariate data, baseline eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2, and a confirmed (>3 months apart eGFR 1%-5%, >5% and fitted Poisson models to assess whether CVD and CKD risk group effects were multiplicative. A total of 27,215 participants contributed 202,034 person-years of follow-up: 74% male, median (IQR age 42 (36, 49 years, median (IQR baseline year of follow-up 2005 (2004, 2008. D:A:D risk equations predicted 3,560 (13.1% participants at high CVD risk, 4,996 (18.4% participants at high CKD risk, and 1,585 (5.8% participants at both high CKD and high CVD risk. CVD and CKD event rates by predicted risk group were multiplicative. Participants at high CVD risk had a 5.63-fold (95% CI 4.47, 7.09, p < 0.001 increase in CKD events compared to those at low risk; participants at high CKD risk had a 1.31-fold (95% CI 1.09, 1.56, p = 0.005 increase in CVD events compared to those at low risk. Participants' CVD and CKD risk groups had multiplicative predictive effects, with no evidence of an interaction (p = 0.329 and p = 0.291 for CKD and CVD, respectively. The main study limitation is the difference in the ascertainment of the clinically defined CVD endpoints and the laboratory-defined CKD endpoints.We found that people at high predicted risk for both CVD and CKD have substantially greater risks for both CVD and CKD events compared with those at low predicted risk for both outcomes, and compared to those at high predicted risk for only CVD or CKD events. This suggests that CVD and

  15. SENTINEL EVENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrej Robida

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available Background. The Objective of the article is a two year statistics on sentinel events in hospitals. Results of a survey on sentinel events and the attitude of hospital leaders and staff are also included. Some recommendations regarding patient safety and the handling of sentinel events are given.Methods. In March 2002 the Ministry of Health introduce a voluntary reporting system on sentinel events in Slovenian hospitals. Sentinel events were analyzed according to the place the event, its content, and root causes. To show results of the first year, a conference for hospital directors and medical directors was organized. A survey was conducted among the participants with the purpose of gathering information about their view on sentinel events. One hundred questionnaires were distributed.Results. Sentinel events. There were 14 reports of sentinel events in the first year and 7 in the second. In 4 cases reports were received only after written reminders were sent to the responsible persons, in one case no reports were obtained. There were 14 deaths, 5 of these were in-hospital suicides, 6 were due to an adverse event, 3 were unexplained. Events not leading to death were a suicide attempt, a wrong side surgery, a paraplegia after spinal anaesthesia, a fall with a femoral neck fracture, a damage of the spleen in the event of pleural space drainage, inadvertent embolization with absolute alcohol into a femoral artery and a physical attack on a physician by a patient. Analysis of root causes of sentinel events showed that in most cases processes were inadequate.Survey. One quarter of those surveyed did not know about the sentinel events reporting system. 16% were having actual problems when reporting events and 47% beleived that there was an attempt to blame individuals. Obstacles in reporting events openly were fear of consequences, moral shame, fear of public disclosure of names of participants in the event and exposure in mass media. The majority of

  16. Variable slip-rate and slip-per-event on a plate boundary fault: The Dead Sea fault in northern Israel

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wechsler, Neta; Rockwell, Thomas K.; Klinger, Yann

    2018-01-01

    We resolved displacement on buried stream channels that record the past 3400 years of slip history for the Jordan Gorge (JGF) section of the Dead Sea fault in Israel. Based on three-dimensional (3D) trenching, slip in the past millennium amounts to only 2.7 m, similar to that determined in previous studies, whereas the previous millennium experienced two to three times this amount of displacement with nearly 8 m of cumulative slip, indicating substantial short term variations in slip rate. The slip rate averaged over the past 3400 years, as determined from 3D trenching, is 4.1 mm/yr, which agrees well with geodetic estimates of strain accumulation, as well as with longer-term geologic slip rate estimates. Our results indicate that: 1) the past 1200 years appear to significantly lack slip, which may portend a significant increase in future seismic activity; 2) short-term slip rates for the past two millennia have varied by more than a factor of two and suggest that past behavior is best characterized by clustering of earthquakes. From these observations, the earthquake behavior of the Jordan Gorge fault best fits is a "weak segment model" where the relatively short fault section (20 km), bounded by releasing steps, fails on its own in moderate earthquakes, or ruptures with adjacent segments.

  17. Event Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this chapter is to discuss conceptual event modeling within a context of information modeling. Traditionally, information modeling has been concerned with the modeling of a universe of discourse in terms of information structures. However, most interesting universes of discourse...... are dynamic and we present a modeling approach that can be used to model such dynamics.We characterize events as both information objects and change agents (Bækgaard 1997). When viewed as information objects events are phenomena that can be observed and described. For example, borrow events in a library can...

  18. Study of μ e events produced in antineutrino interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marage, P.; Gerbier, G.; Guy, J.; Kochowski, C.; Aderholz, M.; Armenise, N.; Azemoon, T.; Bartley, J. H.; Baton, J. P.; Bertrand, D.; Bertrand-Coremans, Gh.; Brisson, V.; Bullock, F. W.; Calicchio, M.; Clayton, E. F.; Coghen, T.; Cooper, A. M.; Deck, L.; Erriquez, O.; Faulkener, P.; Fogli-Muciaccia, M. T.; Hulth, P. O.; Iaselli, G.; Jones, G. T.; Kasper, P.; Klein, H.; Lagraa, M.; Leighton-Davis, S.; Middleton, R.; Miller, D. B.; Mobayyen, M. M.; Natali, S.; Neveu, M.; Nuzzo, S.; O'Neale, S.; Parker, A.; Petiau, P.; Sacton, J.; Schmitz, N.; Simopoulou, E.; Talebzadeh, M.; van Doninck, W.; Varvell, K.; Vayaki, A.; Venus, W.; Wachsmuth, H.; Wells, J.; Wernhard, K. L.; Wittek, W.; Zevgolatakos, E.

    1984-12-01

    A study is presented of μ e events from an exposure of BEBC, filed with an heavy H 2/ Ne mixture, to a wide band antineutrino beam at the CERN SPS. The prompt μ + e - rate, based on the observation of 45 events with p μ>4 GeV/c and p e>0.8 GeV/c, is found to be 0.31±0.05±0.02%, in agreement with previous determinations made on much smaller statistics. The differential kinematical variables characterizing the events and the content of strange particles are as expected for the production of charmed hadrons which subsequently decay semi-leptonically. An upper limit of 2.0±10-4 at 90% C.L. is given for the production rate of prompt μ + e + events. No evidence is found for a significant production of Beauty hadrons.

  19. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  20. Lifetime and production rate of NOx in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere in the polar spring/summer after the solar proton event in October–November 2003

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Friederich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We present altitude-dependent lifetimes of NOx, determined with MIPAS/ENVISAT (the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding/the European Environment Satellite, for the Southern polar region after the solar proton event in October–November 2003. Between 50° S and 90° S and decreasing in altitude they range from about two days at 64 km to about 20 days at 44 km. The lifetimes are controlled by transport, mixing and photochemistry. We infer estimates of dynamical lifetimes by comparison of the observed decay to photochemical lifetimes calculated with the SLIMCAT 3-D Model. Photochemical loss contributes to the observed NOx depletion by 0.1% at 44 km, increasing with altitude to 45% at 64 km. In addition, we show the correlation of modelled ionization rates and observed NOx densities under consideration of the determined lifetimes of NOx, and calculate altitude-dependent effective production rates of NOx due to ionization. For that we compare ionization rates of the AIMOS data base with the MIPAS measurements from 15 October–31 December 2003. We derive effective NOx-production rates to be applied to the AIMOS ionization rates which range from about 0.2 NOx-molecules per ion pair at 44 km to 0.7 NOx-molecules per ion pair at 62 km. These effective production rates are considerably lower than predicted by box model simulations which could hint at an overestimation of the modelled ionization rates.

  1. A search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Behrend, H.J.; Buerger, J.; Criegee, L.; Dainton, J.B.; Fenner, H.; Field, J.H.; Franke, G.; Meyer, J.; Schroeder, V.; Timm, U.; Winter, G.G.; Zimmermann, W.; Bussey, P.J.; Buttar, C.; Campbell, A.J.; Hendry, D.; McCurrach, G.; Scarr, J.M.; Skillicorn, I.O.; Smith, K.M.; Ahme, J.; Blobel, V.; Feindt, M.; Harjes, J.; Peters, J.H.; Poppe, M.; Spitzer, H.; Boer, W. de; Buschhorn, G.; Grindhammer, G.; Gunderson, B.; Kiesling, C.; Kotthaus, R.; Kroha, H.; Lueers, D.; Oberlack, H.; Schacht, P.; Shooshtari, G.; Wiedenmann, W.; Davier, M.; Grivaz, J.F.; Haissinski, J.; Janot, P.; Journe, V.; Le Diberder, F.; Spadafora, A.; Veillet, J.J.; Cozzika, G.; Ducros, Y.; Lavagne, Y.; Ould Saada, F.; Zacek, J.; Alexander, G.; Bella, G.; Gnat, Y.; Grunhaus, J.; Klatchko, A.; Levy, A.

    1987-01-01

    Using the CELLO detector at the PETRA e + e - storage ring a search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton has been carried out. The rate of such events and the thrust distribution of inclusive lepton events show no evidence for a threshold of new sources of inclusive lepton events at the highest PETRA energies. For √s > 46.3 GeV we observe one muon event of the above type, compared to an expectation of 0.8±0.2 events from lower energy data. We do not observe any electron event of this class at the highest PETRA energies. The CELLO data thus do not support the observations of the MARK-J and JADE collaborations of an excess of muon events of the above type at √s > 46.3 GeV. (orig.)

  2. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  3. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)

  4. Inflation expectations in the Czech interbank market

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Fukač, Martin

    -, č. 253 (2005), s. 1-30 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : inflation expectations * nominal interest rate * Fisher rule Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp253.pdf

  5. Conditional expectations associated with quantum states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niestegge, Gerd

    2005-01-01

    An extension of the conditional expectations (those under a given subalgebra of events and not the simple ones under a single event) from the classical to the quantum case is presented. In the classical case, the conditional expectations always exist; in the quantum case, however, they exist only if a certain weak compatibility criterion is satisfied. This compatibility criterion was introduced among others in a recent paper by the author. Then, state-independent conditional expectations and quantum Markov processes are studied. A classical Markov process is a probability measure, together with a system of random variables, satisfying the Markov property and can equivalently be described by a system of Markovian kernels (often forming a semigroup). This equivalence is partly extended to quantum probabilities. It is shown that a dynamical (semi)group can be derived from a given system of quantum observables satisfying the Markov property, and the group generators are studied. The results are presented in the framework of Jordan operator algebras, and a very general type of observables (including the usual real-valued observables or self-adjoint operators) is considered

  6. Physics and observations of tidal disruption events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangalam, Arun; Mageshwaran, Tamilan

    2018-04-01

    We describe a model of tidal disruption events (TDEs) with input physical parameters that include the black hole (BH) mass M•, the specific orbital energy E, the angular momentum J, the star mass M⊙ and radius R⊙. We calculate the rise time of the TDEs, the peak bolometric luminosity in terms of these physical parameters and a typical light curve of TDEs for various All Sky Survey (ASS) and Deep Sky Survey (DSS) missions. We then derive the expected detection rates and discuss the follow up of TDEs through observations in various spectral bands from X-rays to radio wavelengths.

  7. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  8. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  9. Event rate and event-related potentials in ADHD

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiersema, R; van der Meere, J; Roeyers, H; Van Coster, R; Baeyens, D

    Background: It has been repeatedly found that performance of children with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is more impaired when a long inter-stimulus interval (ISI) is used than when a short ISI is used. According to the cognitive-energetic model, this may reflect difficulty in

  10. Different rates of DNA replication at early versus late S-phase sections: multiscale modeling of stochastic events related to DNA content/EdU (5-ethynyl-2'deoxyuridine) incorporation distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Biao; Zhao, Hong; Rybak, Paulina; Dobrucki, Jurek W; Darzynkiewicz, Zbigniew; Kimmel, Marek

    2014-09-01

    Mathematical modeling allows relating molecular events to single-cell characteristics assessed by multiparameter cytometry. In the present study we labeled newly synthesized DNA in A549 human lung carcinoma cells with 15-120 min pulses of EdU. All DNA was stained with DAPI and cellular fluorescence was measured by laser scanning cytometry. The frequency of cells in the ascending (left) side of the "horseshoe"-shaped EdU/DAPI bivariate distributions reports the rate of DNA replication at the time of entrance to S phase while their frequency in the descending (right) side is a marker of DNA replication rate at the time of transition from S to G2 phase. To understand the connection between molecular-scale events and scatterplot asymmetry, we developed a multiscale stochastic model, which simulates DNA replication and cell cycle progression of individual cells and produces in silico EdU/DAPI scatterplots. For each S-phase cell the time points at which replication origins are fired are modeled by a non-homogeneous Poisson Process (NHPP). Shifted gamma distributions are assumed for durations of cell cycle phases (G1, S and G2 M), Depending on the rate of DNA synthesis being an increasing or decreasing function, simulated EdU/DAPI bivariate graphs show predominance of cells in left (early-S) or right (late-S) side of the horseshoe distribution. Assuming NHPP rate estimated from independent experiments, simulated EdU/DAPI graphs are nearly indistinguishable from those experimentally observed. This finding proves consistency between the S-phase DNA-replication rate based on molecular-scale analyses, and cell population kinetics ascertained from EdU/DAPI scatterplots and demonstrates that DNA replication rate at entrance to S is relatively slow compared with its rather abrupt termination during S to G2 transition. Our approach opens a possibility of similar modeling to study the effect of anticancer drugs on DNA replication/cell cycle progression and also to quantify other

  11. Expectation-based intelligent control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2006-01-01

    New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

  12. A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Antonio I.

    The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer

  13. Violence deaths and its impact on life expectancy: a comparison between Mexico and Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Pérez, Guillermo Julián; Vega-López, María Guadalupe; Souza, Edinilsa Ramos de; Pinto, Liana Wernersbach

    2017-09-01

    Using official data, this study analyzed violent deaths (homicide, suicide, events of undetermined intent and deaths due to legal intervention) in Brazil and Mexico in the three-year periods 2002-2004 and 2012-14, the impact of these causes of death on life expectancy in both countries and the role of the different age groups in years of life expectancy lost (YLEL). Abridged life tables were constructed for both countries for both periods. Temporary life expectancy and YLEL between zero and 80 years by selected causes and age groups were calculated for each triennium. The leading cause of YLEL among men was homicide in both periods in Brazil (1.5 years) and in the second period in Mexico (one year). Violent deaths (VD) accounted for around 16% of YLEL in Brazil and 13% in Mexico in 2012-2014. Among women, YLEL due to homicides and suicides showed the greatest relative increase in both countries, although VD accounted for barely 3% of total YLEL. The highest percentage of YLEL due to VDwas found among the 15 to 29 year age groups in both countries and for both sexes. The increase in rates of VD in Mexico, above all among young people, has curbed further increases in life expectancy in recent years, especially among men. Likewise, the high rates of VD in Brazil in both periods have hindered the growth of life expectancy.

  14. High event-free survival rate with minimum-dose-anthracycline treatment in childhood acute promyelocytic leukaemia: a nationwide prospective study by the Japanese Paediatric Leukaemia/Lymphoma Study Group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hiroyuki; Watanabe, Tomoyuki; Kinoshita, Akitoshi; Yuza, Yuki; Moritake, Hiroshi; Terui, Kiminori; Iwamoto, Shotaro; Nakayama, Hideki; Shimada, Akira; Kudo, Kazuko; Taki, Tomohiko; Yabe, Miharu; Matsushita, Hiromichi; Yamashita, Yuka; Koike, Kazutoshi; Ogawa, Atsushi; Kosaka, Yoshiyuki; Tomizawa, Daisuke; Taga, Takashi; Saito, Akiko M; Horibe, Keizo; Nakahata, Tatsutoshi; Miyachi, Hayato; Tawa, Akio; Adachi, Souichi

    2016-08-01

    We evaluated the efficacy of treatment using reduced cumulative doses of anthracyclines in children with acute promyelocytic leukaemia (APL) in the Japanese Paediatric Leukaemia/Lymphoma Study Group AML-P05 study. All patients received two and three subsequent courses of induction and consolidation chemotherapy respectively, consisting of all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), cytarabine and anthracyclines, followed by maintenance therapy with ATRA. Notably, a single administration of anthracyclines was introduced in the second induction and all consolidation therapies to minimize total doses of anthracycline. The 3-year event-free (EFS) and overall survival rates for 43 eligible children were 83·6% [95% confidence interval (CI): 68·6-91·8%] and 90·7% (95% CI: 77·1-96·4%), respectively. Although two patients died of intracranial haemorrhage or infection during induction phases, no cardiac adverse events or treatment-related deaths were observed during subsequent phases. Patients not displaying M1 marrow after the first induction therapy, or those under 5 years of age at diagnosis, showed inferior outcomes (3-year EFS rate; 33·3% (95% CI: 19·3-67·6%) and 54·6% (95% CI: 22·9-78·0%), respectively). In conclusion, a single administration of anthracycline during each consolidation phase was sufficient for treating childhood APL. In younger children, however, conventional ATRA and chemotherapy may be insufficient so that alternative therapies should be considered. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Fusion events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aboufirassi, M; Angelique, J.C.; Bizard, G.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Buta, A.; Colin, J.; Cussol, D.; Durand, D.; Genoux-Lubain, A.; Horn, D.; Kerambrun, A.; Laville, J.L.; Le Brun, C.; Lecolley, J.F.; Lefebvres, F.; Lopez, O.; Louvel, M.; Meslin, C.; Metivier, V.; Nakagawa, T.; Peter, J.; Popescu, R.; Regimbart, R.; Steckmeyer, J.C.; Tamain, B.; Vient, E.; Wieloch, A.; Yuasa-Nakagawa, K.

    1998-01-01

    The fusion reactions between low energy heavy ions have a very high cross section. First measurements at energies around 30-40 MeV/nucleon indicated no residue of either complete or incomplete fusion, thus demonstrating the disappearance of this process. This is explained as being due to the high amount o energies transferred to the nucleus, what leads to its total dislocation in light fragments and particles. Exclusive analyses have permitted to mark clearly the presence of fusion processes in heavy systems at energies above 30-40 MeV/nucleon. Among the complete events of the Kr + Au reaction at 60 MeV/nucleon the majority correspond to binary collisions. Nevertheless, for the most considerable energy losses, a class of events do occur for which the detected fragments appears to be emitted from a unique source. These events correspond to an incomplete projectile-target fusion followed by a multifragmentation. Such events were singled out also in the reaction Xe + Sn at 50 MeV/nucleon. For the events in which the energy dissipation was maximal it was possible to isolate an isotropic group of events showing all the characteristics of fusion nuclei. The fusion is said to be incomplete as pre-equilibrium Z = 1 and Z = 2 particles are emitted. The cross section is of the order of 25 mb. Similar conclusions were drown for the systems 36 Ar + 27 Al and 64 Zn + nat Ti. A cross section value of ∼ 20 mb was determined at 55 MeV/nucleon in the first case, while the measurement of evaporation light residues in the last system gave an upper limit of 20-30 mb for the cross section at 50 MeV/nucleon

  16. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  17. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  18. Dialysis centers - what to expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kidneys - dialysis centers; Dialysis - what to expect; Renal replacement therapy - dialysis centers; End-stage renal disease - dialysis ... to a tube that connects to the dialysis machine. Your blood will flow through the tube, into ...

  19. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

  20. FastStats: Life Expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button NCHS Home ... expectancy at birth, at 65, and 75 years of age by sex, race and Hispanic origin Health, United States 2016, table 15 [PDF – 9.8 MB] Life ...

  1. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  2. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  3. Subjective expected utility without preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Bouyssou , Denis; Marchant , Thierry

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a theory of subjective expected utility based on primitives only involving the fact that an act can be judged either "attractive" or "unattractive". We give conditions implying that there are a utility function on the set of consequences and a probability distribution on the set of states such that attractive acts have a subjective expected utility above some threshold. The numerical representation that is obtained has strong uniqueness properties.

  4. Trend analysis of cables failure events at nuclear power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fushimi, Yasuyuki

    2007-01-01

    In this study, 152 failure events related with cables at overseas nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Database, which is owned by The Institute of Nuclear Safety System, and these events are analyzed in view of occurrence, causal factor, and so on. And 15 failure events related with cables at domestic nuclear power plants are selected from Nuclear Information Archives, which is owned by JANTI, and these events are analyzed by the same manner. As a result of comparing both trends, it is revealed following; 1) A cable insulator failure rate is lower at domestic nuclear power plants than at foreign ones. It is thought that a deterioration diagnosis is performed broadly in Japan. 2) Many buried cables failure events have been occupied a significant portion of cables failure events during work activity at overseas plants, however none has been occurred at domestic plants. It is thought that sufficient survey is conducted before excavating activity in Japan. 3) A domestic age related cables failure rate in service is lower than the overseas one and domestic improper maintenance rate is higher than the overseas one. Maintenance worker' a skill improvement is expected in order to reduce improper maintenance. (author)

  5. Search for supersymmetry in multilepton events with the ATLAS detector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Graat, Julien de

    2012-06-15

    A search for Supersymmetry in events with three leptons (electrons or muons) and missing transverse momentum is presented. The observation of a significant excess of events with three leptons in the final state with respect to the prediction of the Standard Model would be a hint of New Physics. A sample with an integrated luminosity of L=2.06 fb{sup -1} of proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of {radical}(s)=7 TeV delivered by the LHC and recorded by the ATLAS detector in 2011 is used. Special focus is placed on the composition of the Standard Model background and the measurement of misidentification rates of electrons and muons. The misidentification rates are determined from Monte Carlo simulated samples. The misidentification rates obtained for electrons yield values between {proportional_to} 20% and {proportional_to} 6%, depending on the transverse momentum and the pseudorapidity of the electrons, while for muons values between {proportional_to} 42% and {proportional_to} 10%, depending on the transverse momentum of the muons, are obtained. Two different selections are investigated, one selection vetoing events with the presence of Z bosons, the other selection requiring the presence of a Z boson. The observations of 32 events with an expectation of 26{+-}5 events due to processes of the Standard Model and 95 events with an expectation of 72{+-}15 events, respectively, are interpreted in a phenomenological Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model and in simplified supersymmetric models. Limits are placed in the mass parameter space of these models.

  6. Temporal expectation weights visual signals over auditory signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menceloglu, Melisa; Grabowecky, Marcia; Suzuki, Satoru

    2017-04-01

    Temporal expectation is a process by which people use temporally structured sensory information to explicitly or implicitly predict the onset and/or the duration of future events. Because timing plays a critical role in crossmodal interactions, we investigated how temporal expectation influenced auditory-visual interaction, using an auditory-visual crossmodal congruity effect as a measure of crossmodal interaction. For auditory identification, an incongruent visual stimulus produced stronger interference when the crossmodal stimulus was presented with an expected rather than an unexpected timing. In contrast, for visual identification, an incongruent auditory stimulus produced weaker interference when the crossmodal stimulus was presented with an expected rather than an unexpected timing. The fact that temporal expectation made visual distractors more potent and visual targets less susceptible to auditory interference suggests that temporal expectation increases the perceptual weight of visual signals.

  7. Association of the average rate of change in HbA1c with severe adverse events: a longitudinal evaluation of audit data from the Bavarian Disease Management Program for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonke, Florian C; Donnachie, Ewan; Schneider, Antonius; Mehring, Michael

    2016-02-01

    In patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, the effects of HbA1c variability on macrovascular events remain uncertain. The present investigation evaluates the association of HbA1c variability with non-fatal cardiovascular events, emergency admissions and episodes of severe hypoglycaemia in a cohort of patients newly started on insulin therapy. HbA1c variability was defined as the rate of change in values between observations. The medical records of 406,356 patients enrolled in a disease management programme for type 2 diabetes mellitus were analysed to identify a cohort of 13,777 patients with observed transition to insulin therapy. The cohort was observed for a period of at least 5 years. Cox regression models were applied to quantify the association of HbA1c variability with the events of interest. The models reveal a significant non-linear association between HbA1c variability and the risk of experiencing myocardial infarction, stroke and hypoglycaemia. The lowest risk is seen with a variability of approximately 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) per quarter. Using Cox models to predict survival curves for the cohort with hypothetical HbA1c variability of 0.5% (5.5 mmol/mol) and 1.5% (16.4 mmol/mol) per quarter, the proportion experiencing myocardial infarction within 2 years increases significantly from 1% to 10%. The proportion experiencing stroke increases from 1% to 29%, hypoglycaemia from 2% to 24% and the risk of emergency admission from 2% to 21%. In patients newly started on insulin therapy, rapid and higher HbA1c variability is associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction, stroke, severe hypoglycaemia and emergency admission.

  8. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  9. Test expectancy affects metacomprehension accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Keith W; Wiley, Jennifer; Griffin, Thomas D

    2011-06-01

    Theory suggests that the accuracy of metacognitive monitoring is affected by the cues used to judge learning. Researchers have improved monitoring accuracy by directing attention to more appropriate cues; however, this is the first study to more directly point students to more appropriate cues using instructions regarding tests and practice tests. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the accuracy metacognitive monitoring was affected by the nature of the test expected. Students (N= 59) were randomly assigned to one of two test expectancy groups (memory vs. inference). Then after reading texts, judging learning, completed both memory and inference tests. Test performance and monitoring accuracy were superior when students received the kind of test they had been led to expect rather than the unexpected test. Tests influence students' perceptions of what constitutes learning. Our findings suggest that this could affect how students prepare for tests and how they monitoring their own learning. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  10. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  11. Notifiable events in systems for fission of nuclear fuels - nuclear power plants and research reactors with maximum output exceeding 50 kW of thermal normal rating - in the Federal Republic of Germany. Quarterly report, 2nd quarter of 1996

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1996-01-01

    There were 32 notifiable events in nuclear power plants in Germany in the second quarter of 1996. The report lists and characterises all the 32 events notified in the reporting period. The events did not involve any radioactivity release exceeding the maximum permissible limits during this period, so that there were no radiation hazards to the population or the environment. One event was classified at level 1 of the INES event scale (Anomaly). Research reactor operators in Germany reported 5 notifiable events in the reporting period. The report lists and characterises these events. These events did not involve any radioactivity release exceeding the maximum permissible limits during this period, so that there were no radiation hazards to the population or the environment. All events notified were classified into the lowest categories of safety significance of the official event scales (N, or below scale). (orig./DG) [de

  12. Event Reconstruction Algorithms for the ATLAS Trigger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fonseca-Martin, T.; /CERN; Abolins, M.; /Michigan State U.; Adragna, P.; /Queen Mary, U. of London; Aleksandrov, E.; /Dubna, JINR; Aleksandrov, I.; /Dubna, JINR; Amorim, A.; /Lisbon, LIFEP; Anderson, K.; /Chicago U., EFI; Anduaga, X.; /La Plata U.; Aracena, I.; /SLAC; Asquith, L.; /University Coll. London; Avolio, G.; /CERN; Backlund, S.; /CERN; Badescu, E.; /Bucharest, IFIN-HH; Baines, J.; /Rutherford; Barria, P.; /Rome U. /INFN, Rome; Bartoldus, R.; /SLAC; Batreanu, S.; /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /CERN; Beck, H.P.; /Bern U.; Bee, C.; /Marseille, CPPM; Bell, P.; /Manchester U.; Bell, W.H.; /Glasgow U. /Pavia U. /INFN, Pavia /Regina U. /CERN /Annecy, LAPP /Paris, IN2P3 /Royal Holloway, U. of London /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /Argonne /CERN /UC, Irvine /Barcelona, IFAE /Barcelona, Autonoma U. /CERN /Montreal U. /CERN /Glasgow U. /Michigan State U. /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /New York U. /Barcelona, IFAE /Barcelona, Autonoma U. /Salento U. /INFN, Lecce /Pisa U. /INFN, Pisa /Bucharest, IFIN-HH /UC, Irvine /CERN /Glasgow U. /INFN, Genoa /Genoa U. /Lisbon, LIFEP /Napoli Seconda U. /INFN, Naples /UC, Irvine /Valencia U. /Rio de Janeiro Federal U. /University Coll. London /New York U.; /more authors..

    2011-11-09

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10{sup 9} interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system.

  13. Event reconstruction algorithms for the ATLAS trigger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    F-Martin, T; Avolio, G; Backlund, S [European Laboratory for Particle Physics (CERN), Geneva (Switzerland); Abolins, M [Michigan State University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, East Lansing, Michigan (United States); Adragna, P [Department of Physics, Queen Mary and Westfield College, University of London, London (United Kingdom); Aleksandrov, E; Aleksandrov, I [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research, Dubna (Russian Federation); Amorim, A [Laboratorio de Instrumentacao e Fisica Experimental, Lisboa (Portugal); Anderson, K [University of Chicago, Enrico Fermi Institute, Chicago, Illinois (United States); Anduaga, X [National University of La Plata, La Plata (United States); Aracena, I; Bartoldus, R [Stanford Linear Accelerator Center (SLAC), Stanford (United States); Asquith, L [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, London (United Kingdom); Badescu, E [National Institute for Physics and Nuclear Engineering, Institute of Atomic Physics, Bucharest (Romania); Baines, J [Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, Didcot (United Kingdom); Beck, H P [Laboratory for High Energy Physics, University of Bern, Bern (Switzerland); Bee, C [Centre de Physique des Particules de Marseille, IN2P3-CNRS, Marseille (France); Bell, P [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Manchester, Manchester (United Kingdom); Barria, P; Batreanu, S [and others

    2008-07-01

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10{sup 9} interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system.

  14. Event reconstruction algorithms for the ATLAS trigger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    F-Martin, T; Avolio, G; Backlund, S; Abolins, M; Adragna, P; Aleksandrov, E; Aleksandrov, I; Amorim, A; Anderson, K; Anduaga, X; Aracena, I; Bartoldus, R; Asquith, L; Badescu, E; Baines, J; Beck, H P; Bee, C; Bell, P; Barria, P; Batreanu, S

    2008-01-01

    The ATLAS experiment under construction at CERN is due to begin operation at the end of 2007. The detector will record the results of proton-proton collisions at a center-of-mass energy of 14 TeV. The trigger is a three-tier system designed to identify in real-time potentially interesting events that are then saved for detailed offline analysis. The trigger system will select approximately 200 Hz of potentially interesting events out of the 40 MHz bunch-crossing rate (with 10 9 interactions per second at the nominal luminosity). Algorithms used in the trigger system to identify different event features of interest will be described, as well as their expected performance in terms of selection efficiency, background rejection and computation time per event. The talk will concentrate on recent improvements and on performance studies, using a very detailed simulation of the ATLAS detector and electronics chain that emulates the raw data as it will appear at the input to the trigger system

  15. Career Expectations of Accounting Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elam, Dennis; Mendez, Francis

    2010-01-01

    The demographic make-up of accounting students is dramatically changing. This study sets out to measure how well the profession is ready to accommodate what may be very different needs and expectations of this new generation of students. Non-traditional students are becoming more and more of a tradition in the current college classroom.…

  16. Primary expectations of secondary metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    My program examines the plant secondary metabolites (i.e. phenolics) important for human health, and which impart the organoleptic properties that are quality indicators for fresh and processed foods. Consumer expectations such as appearance, taste, or texture influence their purchasing decisions; a...

  17. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  18. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  19. Analysis of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions at HERA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brandt, G.

    2007-02-07

    A study of events with isolated leptons and missing transverse momentum in ep collisions is presented. Within the Standard Model (SM) such topologies are expected mainly from production of real W bosons with subsequent leptonic decay. This thesis continues the analysis of such events done in the HERA-1 period where an excess over the SM prediction was observed for events with high hadronic transverse momentum P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV. New data of the HERA-2 period are added. The analysed data sample recorded in e{sup +}p collisions corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 220 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of two more with respect to the HERA-1 analysis. The e{sup -}p data correspond to 186 pb{sup -1} which is a factor of 13 more with respect to HERA-1. All three lepton generations (electrons muons and tau leptons) are analysed. In the electron and muon channels a total of 53 events are observed in 406 pb{sup -1}. This compares well to the SM expectation of 53.7{+-}6.5 events, dominated by W production. However a difference in the event rate is observed for different electron beam charges. In e{sup +}p data the excess of events with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is sustained, while the e{sup -}p data agree with the SM. In the tau channel 18 events are observed in all HERA data, with 20{+-}3 expected from the SM. The events are dominated by irreducible background from charged currents. The contribution from W production amounts to about 22%. One event with P{sup X}{sub T}>25 GeV is observed, where 1.4{+-}0.3 are expected from the SM. (orig.)

  20. Maximum Redshift of Gravitational Wave Merger Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koushiappas, Savvas M.; Loeb, Abraham

    2017-12-01

    Future generations of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z ≥40 , then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.

  1. Optimal Joint Expected Delay Forwarding in Delay Tolerant Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Jia Xu; Xin Feng; Wen Jun Yang; Ru Chuan Wang; Bing Qing Han

    2013-01-01

    Multicopy forwarding schemes have been employed in delay tolerant network (DTN) to improve the delivery delay and delivery rate. Much effort has been focused on reducing the routing cost while retaining high performance. This paper aims to provide an optimal joint expected delay forwarding (OJEDF) protocol which minimizes the expected delay while satisfying a certain constant on the number of forwardings per message. We propose a comprehensive forwarding metric called joint expected delay (JE...

  2. Aspirin plus dipyridamole has the highest surface under the cumulative ranking curves (SUCRA) values in terms of mortality, intracranial hemorrhage, and adverse event rate among 7 drug therapies in the treatment of cerebral infarction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian-Jun; Liu, Xin

    2018-03-01

    The standardization for the clinical use of drug therapy for cerebral infarction (CI) has not yet determined in some aspects. In this paper, we discussed the efficacies of different drug therapies (aspirin, aspirin plus dipyridamole, aspirin plus clopidogrel, aspirin plus warfarin, cilostazol, warfarin, and ticlopidine) for CI. We searched databases of PubMed and Cochrane Library from the inception to April, 2017, randomized controlled trials (RCTs) met the inclusion and exclusion criteria were enrolled in this study. The network meta-analysis integrated evidences of direct and indirect comparisons to assess odd ratios (OR) and surface under the cumulative ranking curves (SUCRA) value. Thirteen eligible RCTs including 7 drug therapies were included into this network meta-analysis. The network meta-analysis results showed that CI patients who received aspirin plus dipyridamole presented lower mortality when compared with those received aspirin plus clopidogrel (OR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.18-0.99), indicating aspirin plus dipyridamole therapy had better efficacy for CI. As for intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), stroke recurrence, and adverse event (AE) rate, there were no significant differences of efficacy among 7 drug therapies. Besides, SUCRA values demonstrated that in the 7 drug therapies, aspirin plus dipyridamole therapy was more effective than others (mortality: 80.67%; ICH: 76.6%; AE rate: 90.2%). Our findings revealed that aspirin plus dipyridamole therapy might be the optimum one for patients with CI, which could help to improve the survival of CI patients.

  3. Black-swan events in animal populations

    OpenAIRE

    Anderson, Sean C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Dulvy, Nicholas K.

    2017-01-01

    Black swans?statistically improbable events with profound consequences?happen more often than expected in financial, social, and natural systems. Our work demonstrates the rare but systematic presence of black-swan events in animal populations around the world (mostly birds, mammals, and insects). These events are predominantly downward, implying that unexpected population crashes occur more frequently than increases. Black-swan events are not driven by life history (e.g., lifespan) but by ex...

  4. Event Index - a LHCb Event Search System

    CERN Document Server

    INSPIRE-00392208; Kazeev, Nikita; Redkin, Artem

    2015-12-23

    LHC experiments generate up to $10^{12}$ events per year. This paper describes Event Index - an event search system. Event Index's primary function is quickly selecting subsets of events from a combination of conditions, such as the estimated decay channel or stripping lines output. Event Index is essentially Apache Lucene optimized for read-only indexes distributed over independent shards on independent nodes.

  5. Ethical issues and societal expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metlay, D.

    2010-01-01

    Daniel Metlay (NWTRB) declared that institutions had always recognised an ethical obligation to manage high- level radioactive waste in unprecedented ways. This obligation has not only endured, but has become more explicit and multidimensional and it now subsumed under a more general rubric of 'societal expectations'. D. Metlay directed attention toward the proceedings of previous RWMC-RF workshop ', which contains five essays, authored by Kjell Andersson, Andrew Blowers, Carl-Reinhold Braakenhielm, Francois Dermange, and Patricia Fleming, that are relevant to the question of ethical issues and societal expectations. D. Metlay observed that 'societal expectations' are hard to define and thus very hard to measure. They may vary considerably with time and from country to country. As an illustration he referred to an inquiry performed by a task group 30 years ago in a document entitled 'Proposed Goals for Radioactive Waste Management' (NUREG-0300) on behalf of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Conclusions from D. Metlay are that, for the most part, societal expectations in the United States appear to be quite stable over a period of more than 30 years. In two areas, however, there are clear differences in emphasis between expectations articulated in the last few years and those recorded in 1978. (1) While then there was emphasis on the operational reliability of organisations and institutions. In particular, much care was taken to discuss the inherent limitations on bureaucratic error-correction in the future. The focus is nowadays more on bureaucratic behaviours associated with carrying out decision-making processes in the present. (2) While there is current emphasis on the importance of trust, transparency, and accountability, the NRC document may cast some doubt on the reliability of a stepwise decision-making process. In the domain of radioactive waste management, error signals are notoriously unclear, and strong disagreements over objectives and value trade

  6. The construction of normal expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Røpke, Inge

    2008-01-01

    The gradual upward changes of standards in normal everyday life have significant environmental implications, and it is therefore important to study how these changes come about. The intention of the article is to analyze the social construction of normal expectations through a case study. The case...... concerns the present boom in bathroom renovations in Denmark, which offers an excellent opportunity to study the interplay between a wide variety of consumption drivers and social changes pointing toward long-term changes of normal expectations regarding bathroom standards. The study is problemoriented...... and transdisciplinary and draws on a wide range of sociological, anthropological, and economic theories. The empirical basis comprises a combination of statistics, a review of magazine and media coverage, visits to exhibitions, and qualitative interviews. A variety of consumption drivers are identified. Among...

  7. An improved method for setting upper limits with small numbers of events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swartz, M.L.

    1990-01-01

    We note that most experimental searches for rare phenomena actually measure the ratio of the number of event candidates to the number of some normalizing events. These measurements are most naturally interpreted within the framework of binomial or trinomial statistics. We present a general expression, based upon a classical treatment, that accounts for statistical normalization errors and incorporates expected background rates. The solutions of this expression converge to the standard Poisson values when the number of normalizing events is larger than a few hundred. (orig.)

  8. Properties of jets in Z events from 1.8 TeV bar pp collisions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauger, S.A.

    1994-01-01

    We have studied the properties of Z boson events produced in 1.8 TeV p bar p collisions using 19.3 pb -1 of integrated luminosity collected by the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) during the 1992--1993 Tevatron run. We compare the characteristics of the hadronic jets associated with the Z to leading-order QCD calculations using the VECBOS Monte Carlo program. For a subsample of events, we identify B jets and compare their rates to those expected from events with generic QCD jets

  9. Expected usability is not a valid indicator of experienced usability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meinald T. Thielsch

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Usability is a core construct of website evaluation and inherently defined as interactive. Yet, when analysing first impressions of websites, expected usability, i.e., before use, is of interest. Here we investigate to what extend ratings of expected usability are related to (a experienced usability, i.e., ratings after use, and (b objective usability measures, i.e., task performance. Furthermore, we try to elucidate how ratings of expected usability are correlated to aesthetic judgments. In an experiment, 57 participants submitted expected usability ratings after the presentation of website screenshots in three viewing-time conditions (50, 500, and 10,000 ms and after an interactive task (experienced usability. Additionally, objective usability measures (task completion and duration and subjective aesthetics evaluations were recorded for each website. The results at both the group and individual level show that expected usability ratings are not significantly related either to experienced usability or objective usability measures. Instead, they are highly correlated with aesthetics ratings. Taken together, our results highlight the need for interaction in empirical website usability testing, even when exploring very early usability impressions. In our study, user ratings of expected usability were no valid proxy neither for objective usability nor for experienced website usability.

  10. FRANCHISE EXPECTATIONS: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Raissa Kaziyeva

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to provide a critical review of franchising development in Kazakhstan by focusing on the relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. We have conducted extensive research and communicated with lots of potential and existing Kazakhstani franchisors and franchisees, operating since 2003. Our findings show that the process of signing franchising agreements is quite challenging in Kazakhstan.  Thorough investigation of the differences between expectations ...

  11. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  12. Life Expectancy of Brazilian Neurosurgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botelho, Ricardo Vieira; Jardim Miranda, Bárbara Cristina; Nishikuni, Koshiro; Waisberg, Jaques

    2018-06-01

    Life expectancy (LE) refers to the number of years that an individual is expected to survive. Emphasis is frequently placed on the relationship between LE and the conditions under which a population lives, but fewer studies have investigated the relationship between stress factors associated with specific professions and their effects on LE. The aim of this study is to evaluate Brazilian neurosurgeons' life expectancies (BNLEs) and compare them with those of physicians (both Brazilian and foreign) from other fields, as well as with Brazilian nondoctors. The Brazilian Society of Neurosurgery death registry was used to obtain data that compared LEs from non-neurosurgeon physicians, as described in the national and international literature. BNLEs were also compared with the LEs of Brazilian citizens. Fifty-one neurosurgeons died between 2009 and 2016. All were males. The mean age at death was 68.31 ± 17.71 years. Among all-cause mortality, the breakdown was 20% cardiovascular diseases, 39% malignancies, 10% external factors, 6% gastrointestinal disorders, 12% neurologic illnesses, and 14% unknown causes. BNLE was shorter than LE of male Brazilian citizens. LE was similar among neurosurgeons and other doctors but shorter compared with Brazilian citizens. Further research is needed to provide data that can add to and confirm these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  14. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  15. Simulating events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferretti, C; Bruzzone, L [Techint Italimpianti, Milan (Italy)

    2000-06-01

    The Petacalco Marine terminal on the Pacific coast in the harbour of Lazaro Carclenas (Michoacan) in Mexico, provides coal to the thermoelectric power plant at Pdte Plutarco Elias Calles in the port area. The plant is being converted from oil to burn coal to generate 2100 MW of power. The article describes the layout of the terminal and equipment employed in the unloading, coal stacking, coal handling areas and the receiving area at the power plant. The contractor Techint Italimpianti has developed a software system, MHATIS, for marine terminal management which is nearly complete. The discrete event simulator with its graphic interface provides a real-type decision support system for simulating changes to the terminal operations and evaluating impacts. The article describes how MHATIS is used. 7 figs.

  16. Event generators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, D.; Gulminelli, F.; Lopez, O.; Vient, E.

    1998-01-01

    The results concerning the heavy ion collision simulations at Fermi energies by means of phenomenological models obtained in the last two years ar presented. The event generators are essentially following the phase of elaboration of analysis methods of data obtained by INDRA or NAUTILUS 4 π multidetectors. To identify and correctly quantify a phenomenon or a physical quantity it is necessary to verify by simulation the feasibility and validity of the analysis and also to estimate the bias introduced by the experimental filter. Many studies have shown this, for instance: the determination of the collision reaction plan for flow studies, determination of kinematical characteristics of the quasi-projectiles, and the excitation energy measurement stored in the hot nuclei. To Eugene, the currently utilised generator, several improvements were added: introduction of space-time correlations between the different products emitted in the decay of excited nuclei by calculating the trajectories of the particles in the final phase of the reaction; taking into account in the decay cascade of the discrete levels of the lighter fragments; the possibility of the schematically description of the explosion of the nucleus by simultaneous emission of multi-fragments. Thus, by comparing the calculations with the data relative to heavy systems studied with the NAUTILUS assembly it was possible to extract the time scales in the nuclear fragmentation. The utilisation of these event generators was extended to the analysis of INDRA data concerning the determination of the vaporization threshold in the collisions Ar + Ni and also the research of the expansion effects in the collisions Xe + Sn at 50 MeV/u

  17. What happens when we compare the lifespan distributions of life script events and autobiographical memories of life story events? A cross-cultural study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

    Cultural Life Script Theory (Berntsen and Rubin, 2004), provides a cultural explanation of the reminiscence bump: adults older than 40 years remember a significantly greater amount of life events happening between 15 - 30 years of age (Rubin, Rahal, & Poon, 1998), compared to other lifetime periods....... Most of these memories are rated as emotionally positive (Rubin & Berntsen, 2003). The cultural life script represents culturally shared expectations about the order and timing of life events in an typical, idealised life course. By comparing the lifespan distribution of the life scripts events...... and memories of life story events, we can determine the degree to which the cultural life script serves as a recall template for autobiographical memories, especially of positive life events from adolescence and early adulthood, also known as the reminiscence bump period....

  18. On the Measurement and Properties of Ambiguity in Probabilistic Expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pickett, Justin T.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Bushway, Shawn

    2015-01-01

    Survey respondents' probabilistic expectations are now widely used in many fields to study risk perceptions, decision-making processes, and behavior. Researchers have developed several methods to account for the fact that the probability of an event may be more ambiguous for some respondents than others, but few prior studies have empirically…

  19. Prior Expectations Evoke Stimulus Templates in the Primary Visual Cortex

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kok, P.; Failing, F.M.; de Lange, F.P.

    2014-01-01

    Exposure to rhythmic stimulation results in facilitated responses to events that appear in-phase with the rhythm and modulation of anticipatory and target-evoked brain activity, presumably reflecting "exogenous," unintentional temporal expectations. However, the extent to which this effect is

  20. Events diary

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-01-01

    as Imperial College, the Royal Albert Hall, the Royal College of Art, the Natural History and Science Museums and the Royal Geographical Society. Under the heading `Shaping the future together' BA2000 will explore science, engineering and technology in their wider cultural context. Further information about this event on 6 - 12 September may be obtained from Sandra Koura, BA2000 Festival Manager, British Association for the Advancement of Science, 23 Savile Row, London W1X 2NB (tel: 0171 973 3075, e-mail: sandra.koura@britassoc.org.uk ). Details of the creating SPARKS events may be obtained from creating.sparks@britassoc.org.uk or from the website www.britassoc.org.uk . Other events 3 - 7 July, Porto Alegre, Brazil VII Interamerican conference on physics education: The preparation of physicists and physics teachers in contemporary society. Info: IACPE7@if.ufrgs.br or cabbat1.cnea.gov.ar/iacpe/iacpei.htm 27 August - 1 September, Barcelona, Spain GIREP conference: Physics teacher education beyond 2000. Info: www.blues.uab.es/phyteb/index.html

  1. Revisiting event horizon finders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, Michael I; Pfeiffer, Harald P; Scheel, Mark A

    2009-01-01

    Event horizons are the defining physical features of black hole spacetimes, and are of considerable interest in studying black hole dynamics. Here, we reconsider three techniques to find event horizons in numerical spacetimes: integrating geodesics, integrating a surface, and integrating a level-set of surfaces over a volume. We implement the first two techniques and find that straightforward integration of geodesics backward in time is most robust. We find that the exponential rate of approach of a null surface towards the event horizon of a spinning black hole equals the surface gravity of the black hole. In head-on mergers we are able to track quasi-normal ringing of the merged black hole through seven oscillations, covering a dynamic range of about 10 5 . Both at late times (when the final black hole has settled down) and at early times (before the merger), the apparent horizon is found to be an excellent approximation of the event horizon. In the head-on binary black hole merger, only some of the future null generators of the horizon are found to start from past null infinity; the others approach the event horizons of the individual black holes at times far before merger.

  2. Geophysical events

    Science.gov (United States)

    This is a summary of SEAN Bulletin, 13(3), March 31, 1988, a publication of the Smithsonian Institution's Scientific Event Alert Network. The complete bulletin is available in the microfiche edition of Eos as a microfiche supplement or as a paper reprint. For the microfiche, order document E88-002 at $2.50 (U.S.) by writing to AGU Orders, 2000 Florida Avenue, N.W., Washington, DC 20009 or by calling toll free on 800-424-2488. For the paper reprint, order SEAN Bulletin (giving volume and issue numbers and issue date) through the same address; the price is $3.50 for one copy of each issue number for those who do not have a deposit account, $2 for those who do; additional copies of each issue number are $1. Subscriptions to SEAN Bulletin are also available from AGU-Orders; the price is $18 for 12 monthly issues mailed to a U.S. address, $28 if mailed elsewhere, and must be prepaid.

  3. Separate storage of pulser events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goerner, W.

    1978-01-01

    External pulser events were directed to a memory section apart from the spectrum, thus subtracting the background with its statistics from the pulser peak and allowing small pulser rates to be used. (author)

  4. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mara, S.J.

    1979-01-01

    In this report the rate, duration, and magnitude of changes from geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and the Gulf Coast over the next million years are projected. The projections were made by reviewing the pertinent literature; evaluating the geomorphic history of each region, especially that during the Quaternary Period; identifying the geomorphic processes and events likely to be significant in the two regions of interest; and estimating the average and worst-case conditions expected over the next million years

  5. Event-building and PC farm based level-3 trigger at the CDF experiment

    CERN Document Server

    Anikeev, K; Furic, I K; Holmgren, D; Korn, A J; Kravchenko, I V; Mulhearn, M; Ngan, P; Paus, C; Rakitine, A; Rechenmacher, R; Shah, T; Sphicas, Paris; Sumorok, K; Tether, S; Tseng, J

    2000-01-01

    In the technical design report the event building process at Fermilab's CDF experiment is required to function at an event rate of 300 events/sec. The events are expected to have an average size of 150 kBytes (kB) and are assembled from fragments of 16 readout locations. The fragment size from the different locations varies between 12 kB and 16 kB. Once the events are assembled they are fed into the Level-3 trigger which is based on processors running programs to filter events using the full event information. Computing power on the order of a second on a Pentium II processor is required per event. The architecture design is driven by the cost and is therefore based on commodity components: VME processor modules running VxWorks for the readout, an ATM switch for the event building, and Pentium PCs running Linux as an operation system for the Level-3 event processing. Pentium PCs are also used to receive events from the ATM switch and further distribute them to the processing nodes over multiple 100 Mbps Ether...

  6. Trading Stages: Life Expectancies in Structured Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim; Horvitz, Carol

    2012-01-01

    Interest in stage-and age structured models has recently increased because they can describe quantitative traits such as size that are left out of age-only demography. Available methods for the analysis of effects of vital rates on lifespan in stage-structured models have not been widely applied because they are hard to use and interpret, and tools for age and stage structured populations are missing. We present easily interpretable expressions for the sensitivities and elasticities of life expectancy to vital rates in age-stage models, and illustrate their application with two biological examples. Much of our approach relies on trading of time and mortality risk in one stage for time and risk in others. Our approach contributes to the new framework of the study of age- and stage-structured biodemography. PMID:22664576

  7. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  8. Expectation values in quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop new methods for calculating expectation values of field operators, in situations where particle creation is important. The goal is to apply these techniques to quantum gravity, to see if the initial singularity in the universe might be avoided in the quantum theory. Standard effective action theory is modified to produce effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field in an in state, as opposed to the usual in-out amplitude. Diagrammatic rules are found for calculation of the new field equations, and are used to show that the equations are real and causal up to two loop order. The theory also provides a simple check of unitarity, which is carried out, again up to two loops. Just as the standard effective field equations can be derived by analytic continuation from a theory defined in Euclidean space, so can the modified equations be obtained from a modified contour rotation of the Euclidean theory. This result is used to prove a recent conjecture which yields a simple rule for finding the real, causal equations. The new formalism is applied to two gravitational systems. First, the stability of flat space time is studied by finding the equation satisfied by small perturbations of Minkowski space

  9. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung

    2014-01-01

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety

  10. Tools for Trigger Rate Monitoring at CMS

    CERN Document Server

    Smith, Geoffrey; Wightman, Andrew Steven

    2017-01-01

    In 2017, we expect the LHC to deliver an instantaneous luminosity of roughly $2.0 \\times 10^{34}$~cm$^{-2}$s$^{-1}$ to the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment, with about 60 simultaneous proton-proton collisions (pileup) per event. In these challenging conditions, it is important to be able to intelligently monitor the rate at which data are being collected (the trigger rate). It is not enough to simply look at the trigger rate; it is equally important to compare the trigger rate with expectations. We present a set of software tools that have been developed to accomplish this. The tools include a real-time component - a script that monitors the rates of individual triggers during data-taking, and activates an alarm if rates deviate significantly from expectation. Fits are made to previously collected data and extrapolated to higher pileup. The behavior of triggers as a function of pileup is then monitored as data are collected - plots are automatically produced on an hourly basis and uploaded to a web area...

  11. An Examination of Three Spatial Event Cluster Detection Methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hensley H. Mariathas

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In spatial disease surveillance, geographic areas with large numbers of disease cases are to be identified, so that targeted investigations can be pursued. Geographic areas with high disease rates are called disease clusters and statistical cluster detection tests are used to identify geographic areas with higher disease rates than expected by chance alone. In some situations, disease-related events rather than individuals are of interest for geographical surveillance, and methods to detect clusters of disease-related events are called event cluster detection methods. In this paper, we examine three distributional assumptions for the events in cluster detection: compound Poisson, approximate normal and multiple hypergeometric (exact. The methods differ on the choice of distributional assumption for the potentially multiple correlated events per individual. The methods are illustrated on emergency department (ED presentations by children and youth (age < 18 years because of substance use in the province of Alberta, Canada, during 1 April 2007, to 31 March 2008. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate Type I error and the power of the clustering methods.

  12. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Taylor, K

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  13. When expectation confounds iconic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Talis; Aru, Jaan

    2016-10-01

    In response to the methodological criticism (Bachmann & Aru, 2015) of the interpretation of their earlier experimental results (Mack, Erol, & Clarke, 2015) Mack, Erol, Clarke, and Bert (2016) presented new results that they interpret again in favor of the stance that an attention-free phenomenal iconic store does not exist. Here we once more question their conclusions. When their subjects were unexpectedly asked to report the letters instead of the post-cued circles in the 101th trial where letters were actually absent, they likely failed to see the empty display area because prior experience with letters in the preceding trials produced expectancy based illusory experience of letter-like objects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Great expectations: large wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, E.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on wind turbine product development, and traces the background to wind turbines from the first generation 1.5 MW machines in 1995-6, plans for the second generation 3-5 MW class turbines to meet the expected boom in offshore wind projects, to the anticipated installation of a 4.5 MW turbine, and offshore wind projects planned for 2000-2002. The switch by the market leader Vestas to variable speed operation in 2000, the new product development and marketing strategy taken by the German Pro + Pro consultancy in their design of a 1.5 MW variable speed pitch control concept, the possible limiting of the size of turbines due to logistical difficulties, opportunities offered by air ships for large turbines, and the commissioning of offshore wind farms are discussed. Details of some 2-5 MW offshore wind turbine design specifications are tabulated

  15. Incidence and management of life-threatening adverse events during cardiac catheterization for congenital heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, C Huie; Hegde, Sanjeet; Marshall, Audrey C; Porras, Diego; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Balzer, David T; Beekman, Robert H; Torres, Alejandro; Vincent, Julie A; Moore, John W; Holzer, Ralf; Armsby, Laurie; Bergersen, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    Continued advancements in congenital cardiac catheterization and interventions have resulted in increased patient and procedural complexity. Anticipation of life-threatening events and required rescue measures is a critical component to preprocedural preparation. We sought to determine the incidence and nature of life-threatening adverse events in congenital and pediatric cardiac catheterization, risk factors, and resources necessary to anticipate and manage events. Data from 8905 cases performed at the 8 participating institutions of the Congenital Cardiac Catheterization Project on Outcomes were captured between 2007 and 2010 [median 1,095/site (range 133-3,802)]. The incidence of all life-threatening events was 2.1 % [95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.8-2.4 %], whereas mortality was 0.28 % (95 % CI 0.18-0.41 %). Fifty-seven life-threatening events required cardiopulmonary resuscitation, whereas 9 % required extracorporeal membrane oxygenation. Use of a risk adjustment model showed that age events. Using this model, standardized life-threatening event ratios were calculated, thus showing that one institution had a life-threatening event rate greater than expected. Congenital cardiac catheterization and intervention can be performed safely with a low rate of life-threatening events and mortality; preprocedural evaluation of risk may optimize preparation of emergency rescue and bailout procedures. Risk predictors (age < 1, hemodynamic vulnerability, and procedure risk category) can enhance preprocedural patient risk stratification and planning.

  16. ATLAS Event Display: Run 2 Heavy Ion Collision

    CERN Multimedia

    ATLAS Collaboration

    2018-01-01

    Event display of a lead-lead collision with a large transverse momentum photon. In this event, the expected balancing jet is not visible by eye, consistent with it being degraded by its passage through the quark-gluon plasma.

  17. An Oracle-based Event Index for ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    Gallas, Elizabeth; The ATLAS collaboration; Petrova, Petya Tsvetanova; Baranowski, Zbigniew; Canali, Luca; Formica, Andrea; Dumitru, Andrei

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS EventIndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS, the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We've indexed about 15 billion real data events and about 25 billion simulated events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year for real data and simulation, respectively. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data ...

  18. Anomalous Kolar events revisited: Dark matter?

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2014-03-06

    Mar 6, 2014 ... 2.3 km at KGF had a penetrating track and an associated shower. ... Summary of the three events reported in 1986. The track and shower energies are given in GeV. Event. Penetrating. Shower. Opening. Vertex number ... energy density in the solar system is expected to be in the range of GeV/cc [16]. If the.

  19. Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

  20. Misconceptions and false expectations in neutral evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS Y. VALENZUELA

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral evolution results from random recurrent mutation and genetic drift. A small part of random evolution, that which is related to protein or DNA polymorphisms, is the subject of the Neutral Theory of Evolution. One of the foundations of this theory is the demonstration that the mutation rate (m is equal to the substitution rate. Since both rates are independent of population size, they are independent of drift, which is dependent upon population size. Neutralists have erroneously equated the substitution rate with the fixation rate, despite the fact that they are antithetical conceptions. The neutralists then applied the random walk stochastic model to justify alleles or bases that were fixated or eliminated. In this model, once the allele or base frequencies reach the monomorphic states (values of 1.0 or 0.0, the absorbing barriers, they can no longer return to the polymorphic state. This operates in a pure mathematical model. If recurrent mutation occurs (as in biotic real systems fixation and elimination are impossible. A population of bacteria in which m=10-8 base mutation (or substitution/site/generation and the reproduction rate is 1000 cell cycle/year should replace all its genome bases in approximately 100,000 years. The expected situation for all sites is polymorphism for the four bases rather than monomorphism at 1.0 or 0.0 frequencies. If fixation and elimination of a base for more than 500,000 years are impossible, then most of the neutral theory is untenable. A new complete neutral model, which allows for recurrent substitutions, is proposed here based on recurrent mutation or substitution and drift alone. The model fits a binomial or Poisson distribution and not a geometric one, as does neutral theory.

  1. Broken dreams. Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roxas, Fernando; Santiago, Andrea

    2010-01-01

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry. (author)

  2. Broken dreams: Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxas, Fernando, E-mail: fyanroxas@aim.ed [Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo de Roxas, Legaspi Village, Makati City (Philippines); Santiago, Andrea, E-mail: ma.andrea.santiago@dlsu.edu.p [De La Salle University, Taft Avenue, Manila (Philippines)

    2010-11-15

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry.

  3. Broken dreams. Unmet expectations of investors in the Philippine electricity restructuring and privatization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roxas, Fernando [Asian Institute of Management, 123 Paseo de Roxas, Legaspi Village, Makati City (Philippines); Santiago, Andrea [De La Salle University, Taft Avenue, Manila (Philippines)

    2010-11-15

    Over the last three decades, privatization and restructuring of electricity sectors has been a hot topic. The expectation was that prices would fall due to increased competition and that generators would become more innovative and efficient. However, the enthusiasm for deregulation wavered after events such as the debacle in California, the fall of Enron and the setbacks of Ontario. In the Philippines, comprehensive legislation was passed in 2001 but the implementation has been rather slow and controversial. This paper looked at the allegation of politicizing power rates and found a logical alternative to the perceived conspiracy angle. Based on market data, it is highly probable that depressed market rates was a result of coping mechanisms of new players trying to adjust to the restructured industry. (author)

  4. Rate-dependent performance of ion chambers for particle-ID at the GSI fragment separator

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hucka, Jan-Paul; Allred, Timothy; Enders, Joachim [Institut fuer Kernphysik, TU Darmstadt (Germany); Gernhaeuser, Roman; Maurus, Steffen [Physik Department, TU Muenchen (Germany); Nociforo, Chiara; Pietri, Stephane; Prochazka, Andrej [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung (Germany)

    2015-07-01

    At the GSI Fragment Separator (FRS), multi-sampling ion chambers (MUSIC) employing a Frisch grid are used for charge identification of secondary ion beams. At the FAIR Super-FRS, higher rates are expected, and an event-by-event determination of the charge of secondary ions will be needed at rates of several 100000 events per second. The comparison of results from test measurements for the MUSIC performance with that of a recently constructed tilted-electrode gas ion chamber (TEGIC), which was designed similar to the one discussed, is presented.

  5. Expectations Increase as VLT First Light Approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    1998-05-01

    Two weeks before the moment of "First Light" of Unit Telescope no. 1 of the Very Large Telescope (VLT) , the ESO Team at the Paranal Observatory reports good progress of the preparatory work. The crucial optimization of the world's first, thin 8.2-metre mirror proceeds according to the established plan. It is thus expected that this important event will take place as foreseen, i.e. during the night of May 25-26, 1998 . If no unforeseen obstacles are encountered, the first scientific images will then be presented during a series of near-simultaneous Press Conferences in the ESO member countries on May 27 . The photos will be published on the WWW the same day, together with explanatory texts. In preliminary optical tests at the first VLT Unit Telescope (UT1), the initial adjustment of the active optics system that controls the telescope optics has demonstrated excellent results. In particular, the first tests have verified the fine optical performance of the 8.2-m primary mirror and of the complex control system that maintains the shape of this thin and flexible Zerodur mirror. In short test exposures with the guide probe (the technical device that is used to steer the telescope) - i.e., not yet with the scientific CCD-camera that will be used for the First Light images - the telescope has been following the external seeing provided by the Paranal site. Image quality of better than 0.5 arcsec has been achieved routinely. "We are pleased with the progress and confident that the telescope will live up to the expectations", says Riccardo Giacconi , Director General of ESO. "The team at Paranal is doing a great job." For more details about the various media activities surrounding the VLT First Light event, please consult the First Light homepage. A list of locations, times and contact addresses for the Press Conferences is available on the web. How to obtain ESO Press Information ESO Press Information is made available on the World-Wide Web (URL: http

  6. Communicating about nuclear events: Some suggestions to improve INES

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kermisch, Céline; Labeau, Pierre-Etienne

    2013-01-01

    This paper provides a critical analysis of the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES) and its use, both from an epistemic and an ethical perspective. As very few papers have been dedicated to this subject, our critical analysis is mainly based on the INES 2009 User's Manual and on technical information issued by different nuclear agencies. Our critical analysis leads to suggest several elements, which could contribute to the improvement of the INES scale and thereby to a better communication about nuclear events. First, we show that multiple criteria are used to assign an INES rating, which could lead to an insufficient differentiation between events. In order to avoid this issue, we suggest to clarify the criteria that are used to assess the level of the event. Then, we show that level 7 of the INES scale is ill-defined as it does not allow to properly take differences in severity between disasters into account. In this regard, we recommend to use an open scale instead. Moreover, we highlight the fact that INES is able to take into account neither events with long-term evolution nor events involving multiple initiators. In this respect, we suggest providing additional guidelines and reflecting about the data on which to rely, in order to assess an INES level. Furthermore, we reflect on who should be rating a nuclear event and we recommend that, for severe events, an independent and plural agency should be in charge. Finally, we show why INES appears to be insufficient for a global communication, and we suggest to complement the INES rating with additional information in parallel. -- Highlights: •We provide a critical analysis of the INES scale and suggestions to improve it. •The rating criteria should be clarified to allow differentiation between events. •An open scale should be used to differentiate between level-7 accidents. •Additional guidelines should be provided for complex and evolving events. •We provide suggestions to satisfy

  7. Emotional well-being in children and adolescents treated with atomoxetine for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder: Findings from a patient, parent and physician perspective using items from the pediatric adverse event rating scale (PAERS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dittmann Ralf W

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of this analysis was to measure changes in items on the Pediatric Adverse Event Rating Scale (PAERS that relate to emotional well-being of children and adolescents with Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD during treatment with atomoxetine for up to 24 weeks from the perspective of the patient, the parent, and the physician. Methods Patients aged 6–17 years with ADHD were treated with atomoxetine (target dose 1.2 mg/kg/day. In the two studies on which this secondary analysis is based the PAERS was used to assess the tolerability of atomoxetine in children and adolescents. This scale has a total of 48 items. The ten items that reflect emotional well-being were selected to measure changes over time from a patient, parent, and physician perspective. Results 421 patients were treated with atomoxetine. 355 patients completed the 8-week treatment period, and 260 patients completed the 24-week treatment period. The ten items that reflect emotional well-being were grouped in five dimensions: depressed mood, self-harm, irritability/agitation, drowsiness, and euphoria. The scores of these dimensions decreased over time, both from a patient as well as from a parent and physician perspective. Only the dimension self-harm was extremely low at baseline and stayed low over time. The mean scores for the ten items depended on the rater perspective. Conclusion The emotional well-being of children and adolescents with ADHD improved in terms of depressed mood, irritability/agitation, drowsiness, and euphoria during treatment with atomoxetine for up to 24 weeks.

  8. Evaluation of Life Events in Major Depression: Assessing Negative Emotional Bias.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girz, Laura; Driver-Linn, Erin; Miller, Gregory A; Deldin, Patricia J

    2017-05-01

    Overly negative appraisals of negative life events characterize depression but patterns of emotion bias associated with life events in depression are not well understood. The goal of this paper is to determine under which situations emotional responses are stronger than expected given life events and which emotions are biased. Depressed (n = 16) and non-depressed (n = 14) participants (mean age = 41.4 years) wrote about negative life events involving their own actions and inactions, and rated the current emotion elicited by those events. They also rated emotions elicited by someone else's actions and inactions. These ratings were compared with evaluations provided by a second, 'benchmark' group of non-depressed individuals (n = 20) in order to assess the magnitude and direction of possible biased emotional reactions in the two groups. Participants with depression reported greater anger and disgust than expected in response to both actions and inactions, whereas they reported greater guilt, shame, sadness, responsibility and fear than expected in response to inactions. Relative to non-depressed and benchmark participants, depressed participants were overly negative in the evaluation of their own life events, but not the life events of others. A standardized method for establishing emotional bias reveals a pattern of overly negative emotion only in depressed individuals' self-evaluations, and in particular with respect to anger and disgust, lending support to claims that major depressives' evaluations represent negative emotional bias and to clinical interventions that address this bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Rating of transport and radiation source events. Draft additional guidance for the INES national officers for pilot use and feedback; Echelle de classement des incidents de radioprotection: document d'application du systeme international propose par l'AIEA pour les sources radioactives et les transports

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2004-09-15

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) is a means for promptly communicating to the public in consistent terms the safety significance of any reported event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation and to any event occurring during the transport of radioactive material. As described in the 2001 Edition of the INES User.s Manual, events are classified on the scale at seven levels: the upper levels (4-7) are termed accidents. and the lower levels (1-3) incidents. Events which have no safety significance are classified below scale at Level 0 and termed deviations. An overview of the principles for the rating under INES together with flow charts summarizing the rating process is provided in Appendix I. The 2001 Edition of the INES User.s Manual provides some guidance for the rating of transport and radiation source events. At the technical meeting held in 2002 the INES National Officers requested the IAEA/NEA Secretariat to prepare additional guidance. Progress was reported at the Technical Meeting of the INES National Officers in March 2004 where preparation of this draft additional guidance was requested for pilot use. This note provides additional guidance on the rating of transport and radiation source events. It is for pilot use and feedback and is broadly consistent with the INES User.s Manual. It provides more detailed information and an expanded approach for the rating based on actual exposure of workers and members of the public. It is designed to be used as a self-standing document with limited need for reference to the INES User Manual. (author)

  10. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  11. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  12. Keynes, investment, unemployment and expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Ron P.; Zoega, Gylfi

    2009-01-01

    In Keynes' General Theory, investment determines effective demand, which determines unemployment and the labour market plays a negligible role. In New Keynesian models, labour market institutions determine the natural rate of unemployment and the speed at which unemployment adjusts to it. Investment is mostly ignored as a key variable behind the problem of high unemployment, despite a strong empirical association between investment and unemployment. We discuss the evolution of the 'Keynesian'...

  13. Development and validation of a questionnaire to measure preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy: EXPECT questionnaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, V M; Chakraborty, S; Jithin, T K; Dessai, S; Sajith Babu, T P; Raghavan, V; Geetha, M; Kumar, T Shiva; Biji, M S; Bhattacharjee, A; Nair, C

    2016-01-01

    The objective was to design and validate the questionnaire for capturing palliative chemotherapy-related preferences and expectations. Single arm, unicentric, prospective observational study. EXPECT questionnaire was designed to capture preferences and expectations of patients undergoing palliative chemotherapy. This questionnaire underwent a linguistic validation and then was tested in patients. Ten patients are undergoing chemotherapy for solid tumors who fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria self-administered the EXPECT questionnaire in regional language. After filling this questionnaire, they self-administered quick questionnaire-10 (QQ-10). SPSS version 16 (IBM New York) was used for analysis. Completion rate of EXPECT questionnaire was calculated. The feasibility, face validity, utility and time taken for completion of EXPECT questionnaire was also assessed. The completion rate of this questionnaire was 100%. All patients completed questionnaire within 5 min. The QQ-10 tool confirmed the feasibility, face validity and utility of the questionnaire. EXPECT questionnaire was validated in the regional language, and it's an effective tool for capturing patient's preferences and expectation from chemotherapy.

  14. Will energy crop yields meet expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Searle, Stephanie Y.; Malins, Christopher J.

    2014-01-01

    Expectations are high for energy crops. Government policies in the United States and Europe are increasingly supporting biofuel and heat and power from cellulose, and biomass is touted as a partial solution to energy security and greenhouse gas mitigation. Here, we review the literature for yields of 5 major potential energy crops: Miscanthus spp., Panicum virgatum (switchgrass), Populus spp. (poplar), Salix spp. (willow), and Eucalyptus spp. Very high yields have been achieved for each of these types of energy crops, up to 40 t ha −1  y −1 in small, intensively managed trials. But yields are significantly lower in semi-commercial scale trials, due to biomass losses with drying, harvesting inefficiency under real world conditions, and edge effects in small plots. To avoid competition with food, energy crops should be grown on non-agricultural land, which also lowers yields. While there is potential for yield improvement for each of these crops through further research and breeding programs, for several reasons the rate of yield increase is likely to be slower than historically has been achieved for cereals; these include relatively low investment, long breeding periods, low yield response of perennial grasses to fertilizer, and inapplicability of manipulating the harvest index. Miscanthus × giganteus faces particular challenges as it is a sterile hybrid. Moderate and realistic expectations for the current and future performance of energy crops are vital to understanding the likely cost and the potential of large-scale production. - Highlights: • This review covers Miscanthus, switchgrass, poplar, willow, and Eucalyptus. • High yields of energy crops are typically from small experimental plots. • Field scale yields are lower due to real world harvesting losses and edge effects. • The potential for yield improvement of energy crops is relatively limited. • Expectations must be realistic for successful policies and commercial production

  15. Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Irving

    2018-01-01

    In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

    2017-09-01

    Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

  17. Expectations and Experiences of Information Literacy Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saga Pohjola-Ahlin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In May 2016, 48 third semester undergraduate students enrolled in the physiotherapy program at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden were given three sets of questionnaires; before the information literacy instruction (ILI started, at the end of the first session, and a week after, at the end of the second and last session. The aim of this small-scale pilot study was to shed some light on students’ motivation to attend ILI, how they value the sessions afterwards and how they assess their learning outcome. Furthermore, it was an attempt to do a "students’ user experience study” in a pedagogical setting, with the intention to evaluate and improve teaching in ILI to meet student expectations. The average response rate for the three questionnaires was 92%. The results show that students’ expectations were similar to the actual content of ILI, and that the students were satisfied with their own learning outcome. Both motivation and the sense of relevance got higher scores after students attended ILI. Motivation rose from 7,4 to 8,12 out of 10. This is positive because a high level of motivation often improves the learning outcome (Schunk, 2012. When asked which areas most needed improvement in order to further enhance their learning outcome, the most common responses were “the pedagogy” and “my own achievement”. It would be interesting to start collaborating with a group of students in order to explore new methods and learning activities.

  18. Increase in social inequality in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Baadsgaard, Mikkel

    2008-01-01

    AIMS: Health expectancy represents the average lifetime in various states of health and differs among social groups. The purpose of the study was to determine trends in social inequality in health expectancy since 1994 between groups with high, medium and low educational levels in Denmark. METHODS...... educational level, the increase was 2.7 years for men and 2.2 years for women. The difference between people with low and high educational level in expected lifetime in self-rated good health increased by 2.0 and 1.3 years for 30-year-old men and women, respectively. The social gap also increased for other...... indicators. CONCLUSIONS: During the past 12 years, social inequality in life expectancy and health expectancy has increased in Denmark, but the proportion of the population with a low educational level has decreased....

  19. Vaccine Adverse Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... for Biologics Evaluation & Research Vaccine Adverse Events Vaccine Adverse Events Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing ... in the primary immunization series in infants Report Adverse Event Report a Vaccine Adverse Event Contact FDA ( ...

  20. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women......Background: The population of Greenland comprises almost 31 000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Methods: Partial...... life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from...

  1. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  2. Single Event Upset Studies Using the ATLAS SCT

    CERN Document Server

    Weidberg, A R; The ATLAS collaboration

    2013-01-01

    Single Event Upsets (SEU) are expected to occur during high luminosity running of the ATLAS SemiConductor Tracker (SCT). The SEU cross sections were measured in pion beams with momenta in the range 200 to 465 MeV/c and proton test beams at 24 GeV/c but the extrapolation to LHC conditions is non-trivial because of the range of particle types and momenta. The SEUs studied occur in the \\emph{p-i-n} photodiode and the registers in the ABCD chip. Comparisons between predicted SEU rates and those measured from ATLAS data are presented. The implications for ATLAS operation are discussed.

  3. Single Event Upset Studies Using the ATLAS SCT

    CERN Document Server

    Dafinca, A; The ATLAS collaboration; Weidberg, A R

    2014-01-01

    Single Event Upsets (SEU) are expected to occur during high luminosity running of the ATLAS SemiConductor Tracker (SCT). The SEU cross sections were measured in pion beams with momenta in the range 200 to 465 MeV/c and proton test beams at 24 GeV/c but the extrapolation to LHC conditions is non-trivial because of the range of particle types and momenta. The SEUs studied occur in the p-i-n photodiode and the registers in the ABCD chip. Comparisons between predicted SEU rates and those measured from ATLAS data are presented. The implications for ATLAS operation are discussed

  4. Evolving expectations from international organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz Lopez, C.

    2008-01-01

    The author stated that implementation of the geological disposal concept requires a strategy that provides national decision makers with sufficient confidence in the level of long-term safety and protection ultimately achieved. The concept of protection against harm has a broader meaning than radiological protection in terms of risk and dose. It includes the protection of the environment and socio-economic interests of communities. She recognised that a number of countries have established regulatory criteria already, and others are now discussing what constitutes a proper regulatory test and suitable time frame for judging the safety of long-term disposal. Each regulatory programme seeks to define reasonable tests of repository performance, using protection criteria and safety approaches consistent with the culture, values and expectations of the citizens of the country concerned. This means that there are differences in how protection and safety are addressed in national approaches to regulation and in the bases used for that. However, as was recognised in the Cordoba Workshop, it would be important to reach a minimum level of consistency and be able to explain the differences. C. Ruiz-Lopez presented an overview of the development of international guidance from ICRP, IAEA and NEA from the Cordoba workshop up to now, and positions of independent National Advisory Bodies. The evolution of these guidelines over time demonstrates an evolving understanding of long-term implications, with the recognition that dose and risk constraints should not be seen as measures of detriment beyond a few hundred years, the emphasis on sound engineering practices, and the introduction of new concepts and approaches which take into account social and economical aspects (e.g. constrained optimisation, BAT, managerial principles). In its new recommendations, ICRP (draft 2006) recognizes. in particular, that decision making processes may depend on other societal concerns and considers

  5. What to expect from Obamacare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbins RA

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Overall it appears that the ACA will have minimal impact on its goals of expanding care to the poor, reducing costs or improving care for the foreseeable future. It will likely continue to cost shift reimbursement away from physicians while costs continue to rise. Almost certainly it will be entangled in political bickering, eligibility challenges and lawsuits reducing many of the benefits of the law. However, we can probably be assured that CMS will continue to rely on inaccurately reported data, quickly declare their programs successful and stay their course, despite the programs doing little to nothing for patients. When their programs focus on outcomes such as mortality, morbidity, length of stay and readmission rates, real progress can be made in improving patient care rather than “spinning” dubious results.

  6. Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

    2010-01-01

    We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility.

  7. Investment Dynamics with Natural Expectations*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuster, Andreas; Hebert, Benjamin; Laibson, David

    2012-01-01

    We study an investment model in which agents have the wrong beliefs about the dynamic properties of fundamentals. Specifically, we assume that agents underestimate the rate of mean reversion. The model exhibits the following six properties: (i) Beliefs are excessively optimistic in good times and excessively pessimistic in bad times. (ii) Asset prices are too volatile. (iii) Excess returns are negatively autocorrelated. (iv) High levels of corporate profits predict negative future excess returns. (v) Real economic activity is excessively volatile; the economy experiences amplified investment cycles. (vi) Corporate profits are positively autocorrelated in the short run and negatively autocorrelated in the medium run. The paper provides an illustrative model of animal spirits, amplified business cycles, and excess volatility. PMID:23243469

  8. Expectations for direct photon physics from Fermilab experiment E705

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagoner, D.E.; Arenton, M.; Chen, T.Y.

    1987-11-01

    The E705 scintillation glass/lead glass electromagnetic calorimeter is described. The trigger used for recording high transverse momentum direct photon signals from 300 GeV/c π/sup /minus//, π + , /bar p/, p interactions in a Li 7 target is explained. Preliminary results on the response of this direct photon trigger and electromagnetic calorimeter and expected event sensitivities are presented. 14 refs., 9 figs., 2 tabs

  9. Great Expectations: The Persistent Effect of Institutions on Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Litina, Anastasia

    2014-01-01

    This research exploits the event of immigration to establish that institutions have a persistent effect on culture. It is argued that immigrants coming from corrupt countries, tend to overtrust the institutions at the host country. This inflated trust of immigrants is documented as the Great Expectations effect. This result is interesting and intriguing for several reasons. First, it highlights the persistent effect of institutions (at the origin coun- try) on the cultural attitudes of immigr...

  10. Multicultural Differences in Women's Expectations of Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Marianne F

    2016-01-01

    This review surveyed qualitative and quantitative studies to explore the expectations around birth that are held by women from different cultures. These studies are grouped according to expectations of personal control expectations of support from partner/others/family; expectations of carel behavior from providers such as nurses, doctors, and/or midwives; expectations about the health of the baby; and expectations about pain in childbirth. Discussed are the findings and the role that Western culture in medicine, power and privilege are noted in providing care to these women.

  11. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallas, E. J.; Dimitrov, G.; Vasileva, P.; Baranowski, Z.; Canali, L.; Dumitru, A.; Formica, A.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in ATLAS, the system has been easily extended to perform essential assessments of data integrity and completeness and to identify event duplication, including at what step in processing the duplication occurred.

  13. Exposing therapists to trauma-focused treatment in psychosis: effects on credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David P. G. van den Berg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Despite robust empirical support for the efficacy of trauma-focused treatments, the dissemination proves difficult, especially in relation to patients with comorbid psychosis. Many therapists endorse negative beliefs about the credibility, burden, and harm of such treatment. Objective: This feasibility study explores the impact of specialized training on therapists’ beliefs about trauma-focused treatment within a randomized controlled trial. Method: Therapist-rated (n=16 credibility, expected burden, and harm expectancies of trauma-focused treatment were assessed at baseline, post-theoretical training, post-technical training, post-supervised practical training, and at 2-year follow-up. Credibility and burden beliefs of therapists concerning the treatment of every specific patient in the trial were also assessed. Results: Over time, therapist-rated credibility of trauma-focused treatment showed a significant increase, whereas therapists’ expected burden and harm expectancies decreased significantly. In treating posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD in patients with psychotic disorders (n=79, pre-treatment symptom severity was not associated with therapist-rated credibility or expected burden of that specific treatment. Treatment outcome had no influence on patient-specific credibility or burden expectancies of therapists. Conclusions: These findings support the notion that specialized training, including practical training with supervision, has long-term positive effects on therapists’ credibility, burden, and harm beliefs concerning trauma-focused treatment.

  14. Rise, stagnation, and rise of Danish women's life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindahl-Jacobsen, Rune; Rau, Roland; Jeune, Bernard

    2016-01-01

    Health conditions change from year to year, with a general tendency in many countries for improvement. These conditions also change from one birth cohort to another: some generations suffer more adverse events in childhood, smoke more heavily, eat poorer diets, etc., than generations born earlier...... favor forecasts that hinge on cohort differences. We use a combination of age decomposition and exchange of survival probabilities between countries to study the remarkable recent history of female life expectancy in Denmark, a saga of rising, stagnating, and now again rising lifespans. The gap between...... female life expectancy in Denmark vs. Sweden grew to 3.5 y in the period 1975-2000. When we assumed that Danish women born 1915-1945 had the same survival probabilities as Swedish women, the gap remained small and roughly constant. Hence, the lower Danish life expectancy is caused by these cohorts...

  15. OMS event evaluator and scheduler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eckelkamp, Richard E.

    1990-01-01

    An Operations Management System (OMS) is being designed for Space Station Freedom to improve productivity, reliability, and safety while reducing operations and maintenance costs. Central to the concept is a short term plan containing mixes of man-readable and machine-executable procedures used in an environment of distributed processing and execution. An OMS event evaluator to check upcoming short-term plan events for validity of execution is under development. The first version checks time and resource constraints against operational conditions for current or expected stations. In work are the handling of environmental and other operational constraints, as well as detailed modeling of resources and station operational states. The Ada Program also has the ability to reschedule all or part of the events.

  16. Expectancy of Stress-Reducing Aromatherapy Effect and Performance on a Stress-Sensitive Cognitive Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina Chamine

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Stress-reducing therapies help maintain cognitive performance during stress. Aromatherapy is popular for stress reduction, but its effectiveness and mechanism are unclear. This study examined stress-reducing effects of aromatherapy on cognitive function using the go/no-go (GNG task performance and event related potentials (ERP components sensitive to stress. The study also assessed the importance of expectancy in aromatherapy actions. Methods. 81 adults were randomized to 3 aroma groups (active experimental, detectable, and undetectable placebo and 2 prime subgroups (prime suggesting stress-reducing aroma effects or no-prime. GNG performance, ERPs, subjective expected aroma effects, and stress ratings were assessed at baseline and poststress. Results. No specific aroma effects on stress or cognition were observed. However, regardless of experienced aroma, people receiving a prime displayed faster poststress median reaction times than those receiving no prime. A significant interaction for N200 amplitude indicated divergent ERP patterns between baseline and poststress for go and no-go stimuli depending on the prime subgroup. Furthermore, trends for beneficial prime effects were shown on poststress no-go N200/P300 latencies and N200 amplitude. Conclusion. While there were no aroma-specific effects on stress or cognition, these results highlight the role of expectancy for poststress response inhibition and attention.

  17. Expectancy of Stress-Reducing Aromatherapy Effect and Performance on a Stress-Sensitive Cognitive Task

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamine, Irina; Oken, Barry S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective. Stress-reducing therapies help maintain cognitive performance during stress. Aromatherapy is popular for stress reduction, but its effectiveness and mechanism are unclear. This study examined stress-reducing effects of aromatherapy on cognitive function using the go/no-go (GNG) task performance and event related potentials (ERP) components sensitive to stress. The study also assessed the importance of expectancy in aromatherapy actions. Methods. 81 adults were randomized to 3 aroma groups (active experimental, detectable, and undetectable placebo) and 2 prime subgroups (prime suggesting stress-reducing aroma effects or no-prime). GNG performance, ERPs, subjective expected aroma effects, and stress ratings were assessed at baseline and poststress. Results. No specific aroma effects on stress or cognition were observed. However, regardless of experienced aroma, people receiving a prime displayed faster poststress median reaction times than those receiving no prime. A significant interaction for N200 amplitude indicated divergent ERP patterns between baseline and poststress for go and no-go stimuli depending on the prime subgroup. Furthermore, trends for beneficial prime effects were shown on poststress no-go N200/P300 latencies and N200 amplitude. Conclusion. While there were no aroma-specific effects on stress or cognition, these results highlight the role of expectancy for poststress response inhibition and attention. PMID:25802539

  18. Lapse rate modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    2010-01-01

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  19. Lapse Rate Modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Giovanni, Domenico

    prepayment models for mortgage backed securities, this paper builds a Rational Expectation (RE) model describing the policyholders' behavior in lapsing the contract. A market model with stochastic interest rates is considered, and the pricing is carried out through numerical approximation...

  20. Gender difference in health expectancy trends in Greenland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mairey, Isabelle; Bjerregaard, Peter; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2014-12-01

    The population of Greenland comprises almost 31,000 Inuit Greenlanders aged 20-65. The purpose of this study was to estimate trends in expected life years between age 20 and 65 in good and poor health, and to compare changes between men and women since the mid-1990s. Partial life expectancy was calculated and combined with prevalence data on self-rated health, longstanding illness and musculoskeletal diseases derived from health surveys carried out in 1993-94, 1999-2001 and 2005-10. Trends for men and women were compared and changes were decomposed into contributions from changes in mortality and disability. Partial life expectancy increased by 2.2 years for men and 0.8 years for women during the entire period. However, expected lifetime in self-rated good health decreased by 3.3 years for men and by 4.6 years for women (pexpectancy without longstanding illness increased by 4.7 years (pExpected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases increased significantly by 4.5 years for men and by 1.9 years for women. The development of expected lifetime without longstanding illness supports the theory of compression of morbidity, but as the trend direction differs according to which measure for health is used, a definite conclusion cannot be drawn. The different rate of development of partial life expectancy and expected lifetime in good health between men and women is remarkable, and has reduced the gender gap. The results call for special concern about the women's health in Greenland. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

  1. Topology of Event Horizon

    OpenAIRE

    Siino, Masaru

    1997-01-01

    The topologies of event horizons are investigated. Considering the existence of the endpoint of the event horizon, it cannot be differentiable. Then there are the new possibilities of the topology of the event horizon though they are excluded in smooth event horizons. The relation between the topology of the event horizon and the endpoint of it is revealed. A torus event horizon is caused by two-dimensional endpoints. One-dimensional endpoints provide the coalescence of spherical event horizo...

  2. Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    situation, their purchasing attitudes, and their expectations about the macroeconomy. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties and those with pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, income developments, or unemployment have a stronger upward bias than other households. However...

  3. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  4. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  5. Expectancies as core features of mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rief, Winfried; Glombiewski, Julia A; Gollwitzer, Mario; Schubö, Anna; Schwarting, Rainer; Thorwart, Anna

    2015-09-01

    Expectancies are core features of mental disorders, and change in expectations is therefore one of the core mechanisms of treatment in psychiatry. We aim to improve our understanding of expectancies by summarizing factors that contribute to their development, persistence, and modification. We pay particular attention to the issue of persistence of expectancies despite experiences that contradict them. Based on recent research findings, we propose a new model for expectation persistence and expectation change. When expectations are established, effects are evident in neural and other biological systems, for example, via anticipatory reactions, different biological reactions to expected versus unexpected stimuli, etc. Psychological 'immunization' and 'assimilation', implicit self-confirming processes, and stability of biological processes help us to better understand why expectancies persist even in the presence of expectation violations. Learning theory, attentional processes, social influences, and biological determinants contribute to the development, persistence, and modification of expectancies. Psychological interventions should focus on optimizing expectation violation to achieve optimal treatment outcome and to avoid treatment failures.

  6. Expectancies as a Determinant of Interference Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasher, Lynn; Greenberg, Michael

    1977-01-01

    One version, by Lockhart, Craik, and Jacoby, of a levels-of-processing model of memory asserts the importance of the role of expectancies about forthcoming information in determining the elaborateness of a memory trace. Confirmed expectancies result in less-elaborated memory traces; disconfirmed expectancies result in elaborate memory traces.…

  7. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  8. Parental Expectations of Their Adolescents' Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatar, Moshe; Horenczyk, Gabriel

    2000-01-01

    Examines parental expectations of their children's teachers through use of the Expectations of Teachers questionnaire. Participating parents (N=765) reported greater expectations for help and assistance, followed by teaching competence and fairness on the part of the teacher. Mothers were found to hold higher fairness, help, and assistance…

  9. Role Of Expectancy Manipulation In Systematic Desensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, H. Alan

    1973-01-01

    Expectancy, relaxation, and hierarchy content were manipulated. Findings did not support the hypothesis that expectancy was the only factor in desensitization, but did clarify the role of expectancy vis-a-vis the counterconditioning elements typically discussed in the literature. (Author)

  10. Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaekyoung Bae

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

  11. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  12. Event segmentation ability uniquely predicts event memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sargent, Jesse Q; Zacks, Jeffrey M; Hambrick, David Z; Zacks, Rose T; Kurby, Christopher A; Bailey, Heather R; Eisenberg, Michelle L; Beck, Taylor M

    2013-11-01

    Memory for everyday events plays a central role in tasks of daily living, autobiographical memory, and planning. Event memory depends in part on segmenting ongoing activity into meaningful units. This study examined the relationship between event segmentation and memory in a lifespan sample to answer the following question: Is the ability to segment activity into meaningful events a unique predictor of subsequent memory, or is the relationship between event perception and memory accounted for by general cognitive abilities? Two hundred and eight adults ranging from 20 to 79years old segmented movies of everyday events and attempted to remember the events afterwards. They also completed psychometric ability tests and tests measuring script knowledge for everyday events. Event segmentation and script knowledge both explained unique variance in event memory above and beyond the psychometric measures, and did so as strongly in older as in younger adults. These results suggest that event segmentation is a basic cognitive mechanism, important for memory across the lifespan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Postpartum consultation: Occurrence, requirements and expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlgren Ingrid

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background As a matter of routine, midwives in Sweden have spoken with women about their experiences of labour in a so-called 'postpartum consultation'. However, the possibility of offering women this kind of consultation today is reduced due to shortage of both time and resources. The aim of this study was to explore the occurrence, women's requirements of, and experiences of a postpartum consultation, and to identify expectations from women who wanted but did not have a consultation with the midwife assisting during labour. Methods All Swedish speaking women who gave birth to a live born child at a University Hospital in western Sweden were consecutively included for a phone interview over a three-week period. An additional phone interview was conducted with the women who did not have a postpartum consultation, but who wanted to talk with the midwife assisting during labour. Data from the interviews were analysed using qualitative content analysis. Results Of the 150 interviewed women, 56% (n = 84 had a postpartum consultation of which 61.9% (n = 52 had this with the midwife assisting during labour. Twenty of the 28 women who did not have a consultation with anyone still desired to talk with the midwife assisting during labour. Of these, 19 were interviewed. The content the women wanted to talk about was summarized in four categories: to understand the course of events during labour; to put into words, feelings about undignified management; to describe own behaviour and feelings, and to describe own fear. Conclusion The survey shows that the frequency of postpartum consultation is decreasing, that the majority of women who give birth today still require it, but only about half of them receive it. It is crucial to develop a plan for these consultations that meets both the women's needs and the organization within current maternity care.

  14. In the grip of betrayed expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarić Isidora

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the position of young people in Serbia today, as can be inferred from the evidence collected in the study "Politics and everyday life - three years later". Starting from the typology she developed in her 2002 analysis of young people’s interviews (when four basic ways of self-positioning within the social context were identified: "B92 generation", "provincials", "fundamentalists", and "guests", the author traces the changes that have intervened over the past three years in the attitudes of these same respondents concerning politics, personal engagement, views of the future and of their own selves. The fact that the expectations, awakened by the events of 5 October 2000, have been betrayed, has brought strong disappointment, and it is the context in which young people in Serbia once again are losing faith that they will ever find their place in their own society. Against the background of a basic tension in relation to politics - between excessive interest and disgust - there basic strategies of young people in 2005 are formed. "Withdrawal", as the most common strategy, indicates a return of the young to their narrow personal, private, imaginary world, after a short exit into reality and active participation in creating the conditions of their own social existence. The increasingly frequent strategy of "aggression and imposition of one’s own worldview" points to the rising radicalization of the young generation. Finally, it is only the "planning strategy", espoused by just a handful of respondents, that retains traces of faith in future improvement of social conditions.

  15. Long Maturity Forward Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Charlotte

    2001-01-01

    The paper aims to improve the knowledge of the empirical properties of the long maturity region of the forward rate curve. Firstly, the theoretical negative correlation between the slope at the long end of the forward rate curve and the term structure variance is recovered empirically and found...... to be statistically significant. Secondly, the expectations hypothesis is analyzed for the long maturity region of the forward rate curve using "forward rate" regressions. The expectations hypothesis is numerically close to being accepted but is statistically rejected. The findings provide mixed support...... for the affine term structure model....

  16. Radiation dose of aircrews during a solar proton event without ground-level enhancement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Kataoka

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A significant enhancement of radiation doses is expected for aircrews during ground-level enhancement (GLE events, while the possible radiation hazard remains an open question during non-GLE solar energetic particle (SEP events. Using a new air-shower simulation driven by the proton flux data obtained from GOES satellites, we show the possibility of significant enhancement of the effective dose rate of up to 4.5 μSv h−1 at a conventional flight altitude of 12 km during the largest SEP event that did not cause a GLE. As a result, a new GOES-driven model is proposed to give an estimate of the contribution from the isotropic component of the radiation dose in the stratosphere during non-GLE SEP events.

  17. Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigfield; Eccles

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  18. Information-Theoretic Properties of Auditory Sequences Dynamically Influence Expectation and Memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agres, Kat; Abdallah, Samer; Pearce, Marcus

    2018-01-01

    A basic function of cognition is to detect regularities in sensory input to facilitate the prediction and recognition of future events. It has been proposed that these implicit expectations arise from an internal predictive coding model, based on knowledge acquired through processes such as statistical learning, but it is unclear how different types of statistical information affect listeners' memory for auditory stimuli. We used a combination of behavioral and computational methods to investigate memory for non-linguistic auditory sequences. Participants repeatedly heard tone sequences varying systematically in their information-theoretic properties. Expectedness ratings of tones were collected during three listening sessions, and a recognition memory test was given after each session. Information-theoretic measures of sequential predictability significantly influenced listeners' expectedness ratings, and variations in these properties had a significant impact on memory performance. Predictable sequences yielded increasingly better memory performance with increasing exposure. Computational simulations using a probabilistic model of auditory expectation suggest that listeners dynamically formed a new, and increasingly accurate, implicit cognitive model of the information-theoretic structure of the sequences throughout the experimental session. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

  19. Game Day Alcohol Expectancies among College Students from a University in the Southeast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glassman, Tavis; Miller, Jeff; Miller, E. Maureen; Wohlwend, Jennifer; Reindl, Diana

    2012-01-01

    Background: The alcohol consumption associated with college sporting events depicts a public health challenge. Purpose: The aim of this investigation involved assessing the alcohol expectancies among college students associated with home football games and which of these expectancies was most predictive of high-risk drinking. Methods: Researchers…

  20. Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction Over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjortskov, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Expectations are thought to affect how citizens form their attitudes and behavior toward public services. Such attitudes may include citizen satisfaction, where expectations play a fundamental role, and relevant behaviors include choice of services and the decision to voice opinions about them....... However, there are few investigations into what drives citizen expectations and even fewer that consider these relationships across time. This article tests whether prior expectations, perceived performance, and citizen satisfaction influence future expectations, using a unique dataset that follows...... individual citizens across two subsequent school satisfaction surveys from 2011 and 2013. The results show that prior expectations have a large and consistent influence on future expectations, as predicted by the literature, whereas the influence from prior perceived performance seems less consistent. Prior...

  1. Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

    2017-12-01

    The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

  2. Rate of ice accumulation during ice storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feknous, N. [SNC-Lavalin, Montreal, PQ (Canada); Chouinard, L. [McGill Univ., Montreal, PQ (Canada); Sabourin, G. [Hydro-Quebec, Montreal, PQ (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    The rate of glaze ice accumulation is the result of a complex process dependent on numerous meteorological and physical factors. The aim of this paper was to estimate the distribution rate of glaze ice accumulation on conductors in southern Quebec for use in the design of mechanical and electrical de-icing devices. The analysis was based on direct observations of ice accumulation collected on passive ice meters. The historical database of Hydro-Quebec, which contains observations at over 140 stations over period of 25 years, was used to compute accumulation rates. Data was processed so that each glaze ice event was numbered in a chronological sequence. Each event consisted of the time series of ice accumulations on each of the 8 cylinders of the ice meters, as well as on 5 of its surfaces. Observed rates were converted to represent the average ice on a 30 mm diameter conductor at 30 m above ground with a span of 300 m. Observations were corrected to account for the water content of the glaze ice as evidenced by the presence of icicles. Results indicated that despite significant spatial variations in the expected severity of ice storms as a function of location, the distribution function for rates of accumulation were fairly similar and could be assumed to be independent of location. It was concluded that the observations from several sites could be combined in order to obtain better estimates of the distribution of hourly rates of ice accumulation. However, the rates were highly variable. For de-icing strategies, it was suggested that average accumulation rates over 12 hour periods were preferable, and that analyses should be performed for other time intervals to account for the variability in ice accumulation rates over time. In addition, accumulation rates did not appear to be highly correlated with average wind speed for maximum hourly accumulation rates. 3 refs., 2 tabs., 10 figs.

  3. Trends in healthy life expectancy in Japan: 1986 - 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa Yong

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available This article examines the increasing life expectancy of Japanese men and women in relation to their health from 1986 to 2004. We computed healthy life expectancy for seven available time-points using the prevalence-based Sullivan method. The results showed that, for both sexes and at all ages, the gains in life expectancy prior to 1995 were mostly in years of good self-rated health, while the gains thereafter were in years of poor self-rated health. The exception was for women at age 85, among whom there was an almost continuous increase in the number of years in poor health. The proportion of life spent in different health states suggested evidence of morbidity compression until 1995, followed by an expansion of morbidity.

  4. Mortality and life expectancy in persons with severe unipolar depression

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laursen, Thomas Munk; Musliner, Katherine L; Benros, Michael E

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Depression is a common psychiatric disorder, with a lifetime prevalence of 10-15% in the Danish population. Although depression is associated with excess mortality, it is not yet understood how this affects life expectancy. Our aim was to examine mortality rates and life expectancy...... in patients with unipolar depression compared to the general population, and to assess the impact of comorbid somatic illness and substance abuse. METHODS: We followed a Danish population-based cohort from 1995-2013 (N=5,103,699). The cohort included all residents in Denmark during the study period. Mortality...... rate ratios (MRRs) and life expectancy in persons with unipolar depression were calculated using survival analysis techniques. RESULTS: The overall MRR was 2.07 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 2.05-2.09) in people with a previous unipolar depression diagnosis compared to the general Danish population...

  5. The Advanced Photon Source event system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenkszus, F.R.; Laird, R.

    1995-01-01

    The Advanced Photon Source, like many other facilities, requires a means of transmitting timing information to distributed control system 1/0 controllers. The APS event system provides the means of distributing medium resolution/accuracy timing events throughout the facility. It consists of VME event generators and event receivers which are interconnected with 10OMbit/sec fiber optic links at distances of up to 650m in either a star or a daisy chain configuration. The systems event throughput rate is 1OMevents/sec with a peak-to-peak timing jitter down to lOOns depending on the source of the event. It is integrated into the EPICS-based A.PS control system through record and device support. Event generators broadcast timing events over fiber optic links to event receivers which are programmed to decode specific events. Event generators generate events in response to external inputs, from internal programmable event sequence RAMS, and from VME bus writes. The event receivers can be programmed to generate both pulse and set/reset level outputs to synchronize hardware, and to generate interrupts to initiate EPICS record processing. In addition, each event receiver contains a time stamp counter which is used to provide synchronized time stamps to EPICS records

  6. The role of multisensory interplay in enabling temporal expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Felix; Michels, Lara E; Thiele, Carsten; Noesselt, Toemme

    2018-01-01

    Temporal regularities can guide our attention to focus on a particular moment in time and to be especially vigilant just then. Previous research provided evidence for the influence of temporal expectation on perceptual processing in unisensory auditory, visual, and tactile contexts. However, in real life we are often exposed to a complex and continuous stream of multisensory events. Here we tested - in a series of experiments - whether temporal expectations can enhance perception in multisensory contexts and whether this enhancement differs from enhancements in unisensory contexts. Our discrimination paradigm contained near-threshold targets (subject-specific 75% discrimination accuracy) embedded in a sequence of distractors. The likelihood of target occurrence (early or late) was manipulated block-wise. Furthermore, we tested whether spatial and modality-specific target uncertainty (i.e. predictable vs. unpredictable target position or modality) would affect temporal expectation (TE) measured with perceptual sensitivity (d ' ) and response times (RT). In all our experiments, hidden temporal regularities improved performance for expected multisensory targets. Moreover, multisensory performance was unaffected by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty, whereas unisensory TE effects on d ' but not RT were modulated by spatial and modality-specific uncertainty. Additionally, the size of the temporal expectation effect, i.e. the increase in perceptual sensitivity and decrease of RT, scaled linearly with the likelihood of expected targets. Finally, temporal expectation effects were unaffected by varying target position within the stream. Together, our results strongly suggest that participants quickly adapt to novel temporal contexts, that they benefit from multisensory (relative to unisensory) stimulation and that multisensory benefits are maximal if the stimulus-driven uncertainty is highest. We propose that enhanced informational content (i.e. multisensory

  7. Goal Setting and Expectancy Theory Predictions of Effort and Performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossett, Dennis L.; Luce, Helen E.

    Neither expectancy (VIE) theory nor goal setting alone are effective determinants of individual effort and task performance. To test the combined ability of VIE and goal setting to predict effort and performance, 44 real estate agents and their managers completed questionnaires. Quarterly income goals predicted managers' ratings of agents' effort,…

  8. Saddlepoint Approximations for Expectations and an Application to CDO Pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huang, X.; Oosterlee, C.W.

    2011-01-01

    We derive two types of saddlepoint approximations for expectations in the form of E[(X - K)+], where X is the sum of n independent random variables and K is a known constant. We establish error convergence rates for both types of approximations in the independently and identically distributed case.

  9. An Expectancy Theory Motivation Approach to Peer Assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Barry A.; Cox, Pamela L.; Maher, Larry E.

    2008-01-01

    Group projects are an important component of higher education, and the use of peer assessment of students' individual contributions to group projects has increased. The researchers employed an expectancy theory approach and an experimental design in a field setting to investigate conditions that influence students' motivation to rate their peers'…

  10. Global Trends in Life Expectancy: A Club Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ulla Lehmijoki

    2009-01-01

    Excluding the HIV prevalence rate from the threshold candidates re-allocates a considerable number of the members of the High AIDS club, indicating that incomes, literacy, and fertility are unable to predict AIDS completely. The similarity of economic and demographic conditions in the Low Literacy and High AIDS clubs, however, raises concerns about life expectancy convergence in the future.

  11. Detecting impacts of extreme events with ecological in situ monitoring networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D. Mahecha

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Extreme hydrometeorological conditions typically impact ecophysiological processes on land. Satellite-based observations of the terrestrial biosphere provide an important reference for detecting and describing the spatiotemporal development of such events. However, in-depth investigations of ecological processes during extreme events require additional in situ observations. The question is whether the density of existing ecological in situ networks is sufficient for analysing the impact of extreme events, and what are expected event detection rates of ecological in situ networks of a given size. To assess these issues, we build a baseline of extreme reductions in the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FAPAR, identified by a new event detection method tailored to identify extremes of regional relevance. We then investigate the event detection success rates of hypothetical networks of varying sizes. Our results show that large extremes can be reliably detected with relatively small networks, but also reveal a linear decay of detection probabilities towards smaller extreme events in log–log space. For instance, networks with  ≈  100 randomly placed sites in Europe yield a  ≥  90 % chance of detecting the eight largest (typically very large extreme events; but only a  ≥  50 % chance of capturing the 39 largest events. These findings are consistent with probability-theoretic considerations, but the slopes of the decay rates deviate due to temporal autocorrelation and the exact implementation of the extreme event detection algorithm. Using the examples of AmeriFlux and NEON, we then investigate to what degree ecological in situ networks can capture extreme events of a given size. Consistent with our theoretical considerations, we find that today's systematically designed networks (i.e. NEON reliably detect the largest extremes, but that the extreme event detection rates are not higher than would

  12. The benefit of expecting no conflict--Stronger influence of self-generated than cue-induced conflict expectations on Stroop performance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kemper, Maike; Gaschler, Robert; Schwager, Sabine; Schubert, Torsten

    2016-01-01

    The role of expectations in sequential adaptation to cognitive conflict has been debated controversially in prior studies. On the one hand, a sequential congruency effect (SCE) has been reported for trials in which participants expect a repetition of conflict level. On the other hand, conflict level expectations vs. the SCE have been shown to develop differentially across runs of trials with the same conflict level, arguing against the theory that the SCE is purely driven by expectation. The current verbal Stroop experiment addresses this controversy by two means. First, we tested which specific type of expectation (cue-induced expectations vs. self-generated predictions) might affect the SCE. Second, we assessed the impact of expectation on the SCE as well as the development of SCE and expectation with congruency level run length in one design. We observed a dissociation between expectations and SCE, demonstrating that the SCE is not exclusively driven by expectations. At the same time, we found evidence that (self-generated) expectations do have an impact on the SCE. Our data document especially high performance for one specific combination of task events: congruent trial accompanied by congruent prediction and conflict level repetition. Our results are in line with theories attributing conflict adaptation effects to the "adaption to the lack of conflict". We discuss our results in a broader context of theories about conflict monitoring. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  13. Event dependent sampling of recurrent events

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Tine Kajsa; Andersen, Per Kragh; Angst, Jules

    2010-01-01

    The effect of event-dependent sampling of processes consisting of recurrent events is investigated when analyzing whether the risk of recurrence increases with event count. We study the situation where processes are selected for study if an event occurs in a certain selection interval. Motivation...... retrospective and prospective disease course histories are used. We examine two methods to correct for the selection depending on which data are used in the analysis. In the first case, the conditional distribution of the process given the pre-selection history is determined. In the second case, an inverse...

  14. Patients' identification and reporting of unsafe events at six hospitals in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomonori; Fujita, Shigeru; Seto, Kanako; Kitazawa, Takefumi; Matsumoto, Kunichika

    2011-11-01

    Hospitals and other health care organizations have increasingly recognized the need to engage patients as participants in patient safety. A study was conducted to compare patients' and health care staff's identification and reporting of such events. A questionnaire was administered at six hospitals in Japan to outpatients and inpatients from November 2004 through February 2007. Patients were asked to respond to questions about experiences of possibly unsafe events. Patients experiencing such events were then asked about the events and whether they had reported their experience to health care staff. A specialist panel classified reported events as "uneasy-dissatisfying" or "unsafe." The response rates of outpatients and inpatients were 85.4% (1,506/1,764) and 54.3% (1,738/3,198), respectively. Among the respondents (> or = 20 years of age), 125 (8.7%) of the outpatients and 185 (10.9%) of the inpatients experienced uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events; 35 (2.4%) of the outpatients and 67 (4.0%) of the inpatients experienced unsafe events, the percent increasing with hospital stay. Only 38 (30.4%) of the outpatients and 62 (33.5%) of the inpatients reported the unsafe events to health care staff Only 17.1% of unsafe events reported by inpatients were identified by the in-house reporting systems of adverse events and near misses. For the uneasy-dissatisfying or unsafe events that patients did not think necessary to report, the patients often felt they were self-evident or easily identifiable by health care staff, had difficulty evaluating the event, did not expect their report to bring any improvement, or even felt that reporting it would create some disadvantage in their medical treatment. Patient reporting programs and in-house reporting systems, among other detection methods, should be regarded as complementary sources of information.

  15. Expectations and limitations due to brachial plexus injury: a qualitative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mancuso, Carol A; Lee, Steve K; Dy, Christopher J; Landers, Zoe A; Model, Zina; Wolfe, Scott W

    2015-12-01

    This study described physical and psychosocial limitations associated with adult brachial plexus injuries (BPI) and patients' expectations of BPI surgery. During in-person interviews, preoperative patients were asked about expectations of surgery and preoperative and postoperative patients were asked about limitations due to BPI. Postoperative patients also rated improvement in condition after surgery. Data were analyzed with qualitative and quantitative techniques. Ten preoperative and 13 postoperative patients were interviewed; mean age was 37 years, 19 were men, all were employed/students, and most injuries were due to trauma. Preoperative patients cited several main expectations, including pain-related issues, and improvement in arm movement, self-care, family interactions, and global life function. Work-related expectations were tailored to employment type. Preoperative and postoperative patients reported that pain, altered sensation, difficulty managing self-care, becoming physically and financially dependent, and disability in work/school were major issues. All patients reported making major compensations, particularly using the uninjured arm. Most reported multiple mental health effects, were distressed with long recovery times, were self-conscious about appearance, and avoided public situations. Additional stresses were finding and paying for BPI surgery. Some reported BPI impacted overall physical health, life priorities, and decision-making processes. Four postoperative patients reported hardly any improvement, four reported some/a good deal, and five reported a great deal of improvement. BPI is a life-altering event affecting physical function, mental well-being, financial situation, relationships, self-image, and plans for the future. This study contributes to clinical practice by highlighting topics to address to provide comprehensive BPI patient-centered care.

  16. Sex differences in pain anchors revisited: further investigation of "most intense" and common pain events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Michael E; George, Steven Z; Dannecker, Erin A; Jump, Rebecca L; Hirsh, Adam T; Gagnon, Christine M; Brown, Jennifer L

    2004-08-01

    Recent research suggests that the interpretation of maximal endpoints of pain scales vary between sexes. The purposes of this study were to investigate sex differences in (a) maximal endpoints of pain scales and (b) bias, discrimination, and the "better than average effect" for ratings of common pain events. Study participants described and rated the intensity of events that were the "most intense pain imaginable" for the typical woman, typical man, and one's self. Study participants also described and rated the intensity of the "most painful" events they had experienced. Study participants completed the situational pain questionnaire (SPQ), which measured the amount of pain that the typical woman, typical man, or one's self would be expected to experience during thirty common painful events. One hundred and fifteen undergraduate psychology students completed this study. Men and women differed in the categories of events selected for most intense pain imaginable for one's self. There were no significant sex differences for the intensity of most intense self-imagined pain or most painful event experienced. However, women were more likely to report the intensity of their worst self-imagined pain event as 100/100. In addition, only women demonstrated a significant correlation between the intensity of most painful self-experienced event and intensity of most intense self-imagined event. Analyses of the SPQ discrimination scores revealed no sex or version differences. Analyses of the SPQ bias scores showed that both sexes indicated that the typical woman would rate the intensity of common pain events higher than would the typical man. Women rated the intensity of common pain events for themselves lower than for the typical woman, but higher than the typical man, and men rated also rated themselves as lower than the typical women, but the same as the typical man. Thus, there was inconsistent support for the "better than average effect". Future research is needed to

  17. Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

  18. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  19. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  20. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

  1. Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic mino...

  2. Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP

    2004-01-01

    We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...

  3. Event generators for address event representation transmitters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano-Gotarredona, Rafael; Serrano-Gotarredona, Teresa; Linares Barranco, Bernabe

    2005-06-01

    Address Event Representation (AER) is an emergent neuromorphic interchip communication protocol that allows for real-time virtual massive connectivity between huge number neurons located on different chips. By exploiting high speed digital communication circuits (with nano-seconds timings), synaptic neural connections can be time multiplexed, while neural activity signals (with mili-seconds timings) are sampled at low frequencies. Also, neurons generate 'events' according to their activity levels. More active neurons generate more events per unit time, and access the interchip communication channel more frequently, while neurons with low activity consume less communication bandwidth. In a typical AER transmitter chip, there is an array of neurons that generate events. They send events to a peripheral circuitry (let's call it "AER Generator") that transforms those events to neurons coordinates (addresses) which are put sequentially on an interchip high speed digital bus. This bus includes a parallel multi-bit address word plus a Rqst (request) and Ack (acknowledge) handshaking signals for asynchronous data exchange. There have been two main approaches published in the literature for implementing such "AER Generator" circuits. They differ on the way of handling event collisions coming from the array of neurons. One approach is based on detecting and discarding collisions, while the other incorporates arbitration for sequencing colliding events . The first approach is supposed to be simpler and faster, while the second is able to handle much higher event traffic. In this article we will concentrate on the second arbiter-based approach. Boahen has been publishing several techniques for implementing and improving the arbiter based approach. Originally, he proposed an arbitration squeme by rows, followed by a column arbitration. In this scheme, while one neuron was selected by the arbiters to transmit his event out of the chip, the rest of neurons in the array were

  4. The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) user's manual. 2001 edition; La escala internacional de sucesos nucleares (INES) manual del usuario. Edicion de 2001

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-01

    The International Nuclear Event Scale (INES) was introduced in March 1990 jointly by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD/NEA). Its primary purpose is to facilitate communication and understanding between the nuclear community, the media and the public on the safety significance of events occurring at nuclear installations. The scale was refined in 1992 in the light of experience gained and extended to be applicable to any event associated with radioactive material and/or radiation, including the transport of radioactive materials.This edition of the INES User's Manual incorporates experience gained from applying the 1992 version of the scale and the document entitled 'Clarification of Issues Raised'. As such, it replaces those earlier publications. It does not amend the technical basis of the INES rating procedure but is expected to facilitate the task of those who are required to rate the safety significance of events using the INES scale. The INES communication network currently receives and disseminates event information to the INES National Officers of 60 Member States on special Event Rating Forms which represent official information on the events, including the rating. The INES communication process has led each participating country to set up an internal network which ensures that all events are promptly communicated and rated whenever they have to be reported outside or inside the country. The IAEA provides training services on the use of INES on request.

  5. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  6. Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifon I. Missov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprovides an exact formula for gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth and a simplerhigh-accuracy approximation that can be used in practice for computational convenience.In addition, the article compares actual (life-table to model-based (gamma-Gompertzlife expectancy to assess on aggregate how many years of life expectancy are not captured(or overestimated by the gamma-Gompertz mortality mechanism. COMMENTS A closed-form expression for gamma-Gomeprtz life expectancy at birth contains a special(the hypergeometric function. It aids assessing the impact of gamma-Gompertz parameterson life expectancy values. The paper shows that a high-accuracy approximation canbe constructed by assuming an integer value for the shape parameter of the gamma distribution.A historical comparison between model-based and actual life expectancy forSwedish females reveals a gap that is decreasing to around 2 years from 1950 onwards.Looking at remaining life expectancies at ages 30 and 50, we see this gap almost disappearing.

  7. Life events and Tourette syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinberg, Tamar; Shmuel-Baruch, Sharona; Horesh, Netta; Apter, Alan

    2013-07-01

    Tourette syndrome (TS) is a neuropsychiatric developmental disorder characterized by the presence of multiple motor tics and one or more vocal tics. Although TS is primarily biological in origin, stress-diatheses interactions most probably play a role in the course of the illness. The precise influence of the environment on this basically biological disorder is difficult to ascertain, particularly when TS is complicated by comorbidities. Among the many questions that remain unresolved are the differential impact of positive and negative events and specific subtypes of events, and the importance of major crucial events relative to minor daily ones to tic severity. To examine the relationships between life events, tic severity and comorbid disorders in Tourette Syndrome (TS), including OCD, ADHD, anxiety, depression and rage attacks. Life events were classified by quantity, quality (positive or negative) and classification types of events (family, friends etc.). Sixty patients aged 7-17 years with Tourette syndrome or a chronic tic disorder were recruited from Psychological Medicine Clinic in Schneider Children's Medical Center of Israel. Yale Global Tic Severity Scale; Children's Yale Brown Obsessive Compulsive Scale; Life Experiences Survey; Brief Adolescent Life Events Scale; Screen for Child Anxiety Related Emotional Disorders; Child Depression Inventory/Beck Depression Inventory; ADHD Rating Scale IV; Overt Aggression Scale. Regarding tics and minor life events, there was a weak but significant correlation between severity of motor tics and the quantity of negative events. No significant correlation was found between tic severity and quantity of positive events. Analysis of the BALES categories yielded a significant direct correlation between severity of vocal tics and quantity of negative events involving friends. Regarding comorbidities and minor life events, highly significant correlations were found with depression and anxiety. Regarding tics and major life

  8. When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00083337; The ATLAS collaboration; Dimitrov, Gancho

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in AT...

  10. Event-by-event jet quenching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fries, R.J.; Rodriguez, R.; Ramirez, E.

    2010-08-14

    High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient {cflx q} extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting {cflx q} to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

  11. Event-by-event jet quenching

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodriguez, R. [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Fries, R.J., E-mail: rjfries@comp.tamu.ed [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); RIKEN/BNL Research Center, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Ramirez, E. [Physics Department, University of Texas El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968 (United States)

    2010-09-27

    High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient q extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting q to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

  12. Event-by-event fluctuations at SPS

    CERN Document Server

    Appelshauser, Harald; Adamova, D.; Agakichiev, G.; Belaga, V.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Castillo, A.; Cherlin, A.; Damjanovic, S.; Dietel, T.; Dietrich, L.; Drees, A.; Esumi, S.I.; Filimonov, K.; Fomenko, K.; Fraenkel, Z.; Garabatos, C.; Glassel, P.; Hering, G.; Holeczek, J.; Kushpil, V.; Lenkeit, B.; Ludolphs, W.; Maas, A.; Marn, A.; Milosevic, J.; Milov, A.; Miskowiec, D.; Panebrattsev, Yu.; Petchenova, O.; Petracek, V.; Pfeiffer, A.; Rak, J.; Ravinovich, I.; Rehak, P.; Schmitz, W.; Schukraft, J.; Sedykh, S.; Shimansky, S.; Slvova, J.; Stachel, J.; Sumbera, M.; Tilsner, H.; Tserruya, Itzhak; Wessels, J.P.; Wienold, T.; Windelband, B.; Wurm, J.P.; Xie, W.; Yurevich, S.; Yurevich, V.; Appelshauser, Harald; Sako, Hiro

    2005-01-01

    Results on event-by-event fluctuations of the mean transverse momentum and net charge in Pb-Au collisions, measured by the CERES Collaboration at CERN-SPS, are presented. We discuss the centrality and beam energy dependence and compare our data to cascade calculations.

  13. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  14. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  15. Centrality of event across cultures. Emotionally positive and negative events in Mexico, China, Greenland, and Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zaragoza Scherman, Alejandra; Salgado, Sinué; Shao, Zhifang

    During their lifetime, people experience both emotionally positive and negative events. The Centrality of Event Scale (CES; Berntsen and Rubin, 2006; Berntsen, Rubin and Siegler, 2011) measures the extent to which an event is central to someone’s identity and life story. An event becomes central...... disorder (PTSD) and depression symptoms: Participants with higher PTSD and depression scores reported that a traumatic or negative event was highly central to their identity and life story; and 3) A significant number of positive event occurred during participants’ adolescence and early adulthood, while...... an emotional event into our life story and our identity. Key findings: 1) Positive events are rated as more central to identity than negative events; 2) The extent to which highly traumatic and negative events become central to a person’s life story and identity varies as a function of post-traumatic stress...

  16. Stochastic modeling of central apnea events in preterm infants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Matthew T; Delos, John B; Lake, Douglas E; Lee, Hoshik; Fairchild, Karen D; Kattwinkel, John; Moorman, J Randall

    2016-04-01

    A near-ubiquitous pathology in very low birth weight infants is neonatal apnea, breathing pauses with slowing of the heart and falling blood oxygen. Events of substantial duration occasionally occur after an infant is discharged from the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). It is not known whether apneas result from a predictable process or from a stochastic process, but the observation that they occur in seemingly random clusters justifies the use of stochastic models. We use a hidden-Markov model to analyze the distribution of durations of apneas and the distribution of times between apneas. The model suggests the presence of four breathing states, ranging from very stable (with an average lifetime of 12 h) to very unstable (with an average lifetime of 10 s). Although the states themselves are not visible, the mathematical analysis gives estimates of the transition rates among these states. We have obtained these transition rates, and shown how they change with post-menstrual age; as expected, the residence time in the more stable breathing states increases with age. We also extrapolated the model to predict the frequency of very prolonged apnea during the first year of life. This paradigm-stochastic modeling of cardiorespiratory control in neonatal infants to estimate risk for severe clinical events-may be a first step toward personalized risk assessment for life threatening apnea events after NICU discharge.

  17. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  18. Ionizing Radiation Environment on the International Space Station: Performance vs. Expectations for Avionics and Material

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koontz, Steven L.; Boeder, Paul A.; Pankop, Courtney; Reddell, Brandon

    2005-01-01

    The role of structural shielding mass in the design, verification, and in-flight performance of International Space Station (ISS), in both the natural and induced orbital ionizing radiation (IR) environments, is reported. Detailed consideration of the effects of both the natural and induced ionizing radiation environment during ISS design, development, and flight operations has produced a safe, efficient manned space platform that is largely immune to deleterious effects of the LEO ionizing radiation environment. The assumption of a small shielding mass for purposes of design and verification has been shown to be a valid worst-case approximation approach to design for reliability, though predicted dependences of single event effect (SEE) effects on latitude, longitude, SEP events, and spacecraft structural shielding mass are not observed. The Figure of Merit (FOM) method over predicts the rate for median shielding masses of about 10g/cm(exp 2) by only a factor of 3, while the Scott Effective Flux Approach (SEFA) method overestimated by about one order of magnitude as expected. The Integral Rectangular Parallelepiped (IRPP), SEFA, and FOM methods for estimating on-orbit (Single Event Upsets) SEU rates all utilize some version of the CREME-96 treatment of energetic particle interaction with structural shielding, which has been shown to underestimate the production of secondary particles in heavily shielded manned spacecraft. The need for more work directed to development of a practical understanding of secondary particle production in massive structural shielding for SEE design and verification is indicated. In contrast, total dose estimates using CAD based shielding mass distributions functions and the Shieldose Code provided a reasonable accurate estimate of accumulated dose in Grays internal to the ISS pressurized elements, albeit as a result of using worst-on-worst case assumptions (500 km altitude x 2) that compensate for ignoring both GCR and secondary particle

  19. Expected satiation alone does not predict actual intake of desserts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillocheau, Etienne; Davidenko, Olga; Marsset-Baglieri, Agnès; Darcel, Nicolas; Gaudichon, Claire; Tomé, Daniel; Fromentin, Gilles

    2018-04-01

    The degree to which consumers expect foods to satisfy hunger, referred to as expected satiation, has been reported to predict food intake. Yet this relationship has not been established precisely, at a quantitative level. We sought to explore this relationship in detail by determining whether expected satiation predicts the actual intake of semi-solid desserts. Two separate experiments were performed: the first used variations of a given food (eight apple purées), while the second involved a panel of different foods within a given category (eight desserts). Both experiments studied the consumption of two products assigned to volunteers based on their individual liking and expected satiation ratings, given ad libitum at the end of a standardised meal. A linear model was used to find predictors of food intake and included expected satiation scores, palatability scores, BMI, age, sex, TFEQ-R, TFEQ-D, water consumption during the meal, reported frequency of eating desserts, and reported frequency of consuming tested products as explanatory variables. Expected satiation was a significant predictor of actual food intake in both experiments (apple purée: F(1,97) = 18.60, P desserts: F(1,106) = 9.05, P desserts, on group and on individual level. Our results confirm the importance of expected satiation as a predictor of subsequent food intake, but highlight the need to study individual consumption behaviour and preferences in order to fully understand the role of expected satiation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. [Patient expectations about decision-making for various health problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Ana; López-Fernández, Luis Andrés; de Dios Luna, Juan; Saletti Cuesta, Lorena; Gil Garrido, Natalia; Puga González, Almudena

    2010-01-01

    To identify patient expectations of clinical decision-making at consultations with their general practitioners for distinct health problems and to determine the patient and general practitioner characteristics related to these expectations, with special focus on gender. We performed a multicenter cross-sectional study in 360 patients who were interviewed at home. Data on patients' sociodemographic, clinical characteristics and satisfaction were gathered. General practitioners supplied information on their gender and postgraduate training in family medicine. A questionnaire was used to collect data on patients' expectations that their general practitioner account of their opinion and on expectations of clinical decision making> at consultations with their general practitioner for five problems or hypothetical clinical scenarios (strong chest pain/cold with fever/abnormal discharge/depression or sadness/severe family problem). Patients were asked to indicate their preference that decisions on diagnosis and treatment be taken by: a) the general practitioner alone; b) the general practitioner, taking account of the patient's opinion; c) the patient, taking account of the general practitioner's opinion and d) the patient alone. A logistic regression was performed for clinical decision-making. The response rate was 90%. The mean age was 47.3 + or - 16.5 years and 51% were female. Patients' expectations that their general practitioner listen, explain and take account of their opinions were higher than their expectations of participating in decision-making, depending on the problem in question: 32% wished to participate in chest pain and 49% in family problems. Women had lower expectations of participating in depression and family problems. Patients with female general practitioners had higher expectations of participating in family problems and colds. Most patients wished to be listened to, informed and taken into account by their general practitioners and, to a lesser