WorldWideScience

Sample records for expectation value

  1. Anomalous vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suzuki, H.

    1986-01-01

    The anomalous vacuum expectation value is defined as the expectation value of a quantity that vanishes by means of the field equations. Although this value is expected to vanish in quantum systems, regularization in general produces a finite value of this quantity. Calculation of this anomalous vacuum expectation value can be carried out in the general framework of field theory. The result is derived by subtraction of divergences and by zeta-function regularization. Various anomalies are included in these anomalous vacuum expectation values. This method is useful for deriving not only the conformal, chiral, and gravitational anomalies but also the supercurrent anomaly. The supercurrent anomaly is obtained in the case of N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory in four, six, and ten dimensions. The original form of the energy-momentum tensor and the supercurrent have anomalies in their conservation laws. But the modification of these quantities to be equivalent to the original one on-shell causes no anomaly in their conservation laws and gives rise to anomalous traces

  2. Expectation values in quantum gravity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this dissertation is to develop new methods for calculating expectation values of field operators, in situations where particle creation is important. The goal is to apply these techniques to quantum gravity, to see if the initial singularity in the universe might be avoided in the quantum theory. Standard effective action theory is modified to produce effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field in an in state, as opposed to the usual in-out amplitude. Diagrammatic rules are found for calculation of the new field equations, and are used to show that the equations are real and causal up to two loop order. The theory also provides a simple check of unitarity, which is carried out, again up to two loops. Just as the standard effective field equations can be derived by analytic continuation from a theory defined in Euclidean space, so can the modified equations be obtained from a modified contour rotation of the Euclidean theory. This result is used to prove a recent conjecture which yields a simple rule for finding the real, causal equations. The new formalism is applied to two gravitational systems. First, the stability of flat space time is studied by finding the equation satisfied by small perturbations of Minkowski space

  3. Expectancy-Value Theory of Achievement Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wigfield; Eccles

    2000-01-01

    We discuss the expectancy-value theory of motivation, focusing on an expectancy-value model developed and researched by Eccles, Wigfield, and their colleagues. Definitions of crucial constructs in the model, including ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and the components of subjective task values, are provided. These definitions are compared to those of related constructs, including self-efficacy, intrinsic and extrinsic motivation, and interest. Research is reviewed dealing with two issues: (1) change in children's and adolescents' ability beliefs, expectancies for success, and subjective values, and (2) relations of children's and adolescents' ability-expectancy beliefs and subjective task values to their performance and choice of activities. Copyright 2000 Academic Press.

  4. On the Expected Value of Fuzzy Events

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klement, E.P.; Mesiar, Radko

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 23, Supplement 1 (2015), s. 57-74 ISSN 0218-4885 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : expected value * fuzzy event * Choquet integral Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.000, year: 2015 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2015/E/mesiar-0452568.pdf

  5. Length expectation values in quantum Regge calculus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatsymovsky, V.M.

    2004-01-01

    Regge calculus configuration superspace can be embedded into a more general superspace where the length of any edge is defined ambiguously depending on the 4-tetrahedron containing the edge. Moreover, the latter superspace can be extended further so that even edge lengths in each the 4-tetrahedron are not defined, only area tensors of the 2-faces in it are. We make use of our previous result concerning quantization of the area tensor Regge calculus which gives finite expectation values for areas. Also our result is used showing that quantum measure in the Regge calculus can be uniquely fixed once we know quantum measure on (the space of the functionals on) the superspace of the theory with ambiguously defined edge lengths. We find that in this framework quantization of the usual Regge calculus is defined up to a parameter. The theory may possess nonzero (of the order of Planck scale) or zero length expectation values depending on whether this parameter is larger or smaller than a certain value. Vanishing length expectation values means that the theory is becoming continuous, here dynamically in the originally discrete framework

  6. Effective field equations for expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jordan, R.D.

    1986-01-01

    We discuss functional methods which allow calculation of expectation values, rather than the usual in-out amplitudes, from a path integral. The technique, based on Schwinger's idea of summing over paths which go from the past to the future and then back to the past, provides effective field equations satisfied by the expectation value of the field. These equations are shown to be real and causal for a general theory up to two-loop order, and unitarity is checked to this order. These methods are applied to a simple quantum-mechanical example to illustrate the differences between the new formalism and the standard theory. When applied to the gravitational field, the new effective field equations should be useful for studies of quantum cosmology

  7. Vacuum expectation value of twist fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belitsky, A. V.

    2017-09-01

    Twist fields emerge in a number of physical applications ranging from entanglement entropy to scattering amplitudes in four-dimensional gauge theories. In this work, their vacuum expectation values are studied in the path integral framework. By performing a gauge transformation, their correlation functions are reduced to field theory of matter fields in external Aharonov-Bohm vortices. The resulting functional determinants are then analyzed within the zeta-function regularization for the spectrum of Bessel zeros, and concise formulas are derived.

  8. Expected Net Present Value, Expected Net Future Value, and the Ramsey Rule

    OpenAIRE

    Gollier, Christian

    2010-01-01

    Weitzman (1998) showed that when future interest rates are uncertain, using the expected net present value implies a term structure of discount rates that is decreasing to the smallest possible interest rate. On the contrary, using the expected net future value criteria implies an increasing term structure of discount rates up to the largest possible interest rate. We reconcile the two approaches by introducing risk aversion and utility maximization. We show that if the aggregate consumption ...

  9. Likely values of the Higgs vacuum expectation value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Donoghue, John F.; Dutta, Koushik; Ross, Andreas; Tegmark, Max

    2010-01-01

    We make an estimate of the likelihood function for the Higgs vacuum expectation value (vev) by imposing anthropic constraints on the existence of atoms while allowing the other parameters of the standard model to also be variable. We argue that the most important extra ingredients are the Yukawa couplings, and for the intrinsic distribution of Yukawa couplings we use the scale-invariant distribution which is favored phenomenologically. The result is successful phenomenologically, favoring values close to the observed vev. We also discuss modifications that can change these conclusions. Our work supports the hypothesis that the anthropic constraints could be the origin of the small Higgs vev.

  10. Applying the Expectancy-Value Model to understand health values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xu-Hao; Xie, Feng; Wee, Hwee-Lin; Thumboo, Julian; Li, Shu-Chuen

    2008-03-01

    Expectancy-Value Model (EVM) is the most structured model in psychology to predict attitudes by measuring attitudinal attributes (AAs) and relevant external variables. Because health value could be categorized as attitude, we aimed to apply EVM to explore its usefulness in explaining variances in health values and investigate underlying factors. Focus group discussion was carried out to identify the most common and significant AAs toward 5 different health states (coded as 11111, 11121, 21221, 32323, and 33333 in EuroQol Five-Dimension (EQ-5D) descriptive system). AAs were measured in a sum of multiplications of subjective probability (expectancy) and perceived value of attributes with 7-point Likert scales. Health values were measured using visual analog scales (VAS, range 0-1). External variables (age, sex, ethnicity, education, housing, marital status, and concurrent chronic diseases) were also incorporated into survey questionnaire distributed by convenience sampling among eligible respondents. Univariate analyses were used to identify external variables causing significant differences in VAS. Multiple linear regression model (MLR) and hierarchical regression model were used to investigate the explanatory power of AAs and possible significant external variable(s) separately or in combination, for each individual health state and a mixed scenario of five states, respectively. Four AAs were identified, namely, "worsening your quality of life in terms of health" (WQoL), "adding a burden to your family" (BTF), "making you less independent" (MLI) and "unable to work or study" (UWS). Data were analyzed based on 232 respondents (mean [SD] age: 27.7 [15.07] years, 49.1% female). Health values varied significantly across 5 health states, ranging from 0.12 (33333) to 0.97 (11111). With no significant external variables identified, EVM explained up to 62% of the variances in health values across 5 health states. The explanatory power of 4 AAs were found to be between 13

  11. On heterotic vacua with fermionic expectation values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minasian, Ruben [Institut de Physique Theorique, Universite Paris Saclay, CEA, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Petrini, Michela [Sorbonne Universites, CNRS, LPTHE, UPMC Paris 06, UMR 7589, Paris (France); Svanes, Eirik Eik [Sorbonne Universites, CNRS, LPTHE, UPMC Paris 06, UMR 7589, Paris (France); Sorbonne Universites, Institut Lagrange de Paris, Paris (France)

    2017-03-15

    We study heterotic backgrounds with non-trivial H-flux and non-vanishing expectation values of fermionic bilinears, often referred to as gaugino condensates. The gaugini appear in the low energy action via the gauge-invariant three-form bilinear Σ{sub MNP} = tr anti χΓ{sub MNP}χ. For Calabi-Yau compactifications to four dimensions, the gaugino condensate corresponds to an internal three-form Σ{sub mnp} that must be a singlet of the holonomy group. This condition does not hold anymore when an internal H-flux is turned on and O(α{sup '}) effects are included. In this paper we study flux compactifications to three and four-dimensions on G-structure manifolds. We derive the generic conditions for supersymmetric solutions. We use integrability conditions and Lichnerowicz type arguments to derive a set of constraints whose solution, together with supersymmetry, is sufficient for finding backgrounds with gaugino condensate. (copyright 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim)

  12. Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.

  13. Predicting Problem Behaviors with Multiple Expectancies: Expanding Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borders, Ashley; Earleywine, Mitchell; Huey, Stanley J.

    2004-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this…

  14. Best Practice Life Expectancy:An Extreme value Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value th...

  15. Measurement Invariance of Expectancy-Value Questionnaire in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xihe; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang; Ennis, Catherine

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy-Value Questionnaire (EVQ) measures student expectancy beliefs and task values of the domain content (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995). In this study the authors examine measurement invariance of EVQ in the domain of physical education between elementary and middle-school students. Participants included 811 students (3rd-5th grades) from 13…

  16. Stochastic samples versus vacuum expectation values in cosmology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsamis, N.C.; Tzetzias, Aggelos; Woodard, R.P.

    2010-01-01

    Particle theorists typically use expectation values to study the quantum back-reaction on inflation, whereas many cosmologists stress the stochastic nature of the process. While expectation values certainly give misleading results for some things, such as the stress tensor, we argue that operators exist for which there is no essential problem. We quantify this by examining the stochastic properties of a noninteracting, massless, minimally coupled scalar on a locally de Sitter background. The square of the stochastic realization of this field seems to provide an example of great relevance for which expectation values are not misleading. We also examine the frequently expressed concern that significant back-reaction from expectation values necessarily implies large stochastic fluctuations between nearby spatial points. Rather than viewing the stochastic formalism in opposition to expectation values, we argue that it provides a marvelously simple way of capturing the leading infrared logarithm corrections to the latter, as advocated by Starobinsky

  17. Best-practice life expectancy: An extreme value approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Medford

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012 of maximum life expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain probability estimates of best-practice life expectancy levels or make projections about future maximum life expectancy. Comments: Our findings may be useful for policymakers and insurance/pension analysts who would like to obtain estimates and probabilities of future maximum life expectancies.

  18. Scalar field vacuum expectation value induced by gravitational wave background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Preston; McDougall, Patrick; Ragsdale, Michael; Singleton, Douglas

    2018-06-01

    We show that a massless scalar field in a gravitational wave background can develop a non-zero vacuum expectation value. We draw comparisons to the generation of a non-zero vacuum expectation value for a scalar field in the Higgs mechanism and with the dynamical Casimir vacuum. We propose that this vacuum expectation value, generated by a gravitational wave, can be connected with particle production from gravitational waves and may have consequences for the early Universe where scalar fields are thought to play an important role.

  19. The Thomas-Fermi model: momentum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dmitrieva, I.K.; Plindov, G.I.

    1983-01-01

    Within the Thomas-Fermi model including the exchange interaction and contributions of strongly bound electrons, analytical expressions are obtained for all momentum expectation values and for some of the expectation values of powers of the electron density for an atom with an arbitrary degree of ionization. It is shown that a correct treatment of strongly bound electrons gives a quantitative estimate of and within 3 - 1 expansion coefficients for and are given as an explicit function of the electron number

  20. Neural representation of expected value in the adolescent brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barkley-Levenson, Emily; Galván, Adriana

    2014-01-28

    Previous work shows that the adolescent reward system is hyperactive, but this finding may be confounded by differences in how teens value money. To address this, we examined the neural ontogeny of objective value representation. Adolescent and adult participants performed a monetary gambling task in which they chose to accept or reject gambles of varying expected value. Increasing expected value had a stronger influence over gambling choices in adolescents relative to adults, an effect that was paralleled by greater activation in the ventral striatum in adolescents. This unique adolescent ventral striatum response remained even after matching groups on acceptance behavior. These behavioral and neural data suggest that the value of available options has a greater influence in adolescent versus adult choices, even when objective value and subjective choice are held constant. This research provides further evidence that hyperactivation of reward circuitry in adolescence may be a normative ontogenetic shift that is due to greater valuation in the adolescent brain.

  1. Motivational Deficits in Schizophrenia and the Representation of Expected Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waltz, James A.; Gold, James M.

    2016-01-01

    Motivational deficits (avolition and anhedonia) have historically been considered important negative symptoms of schizophrenia. Numerous studies have attempted to identify the neural substrates of avolition and anhedonia in schizophrenia, but these studies have not produced much agreement. Deficits in various aspects of reinforcement processing have been observed in individuals with schizophrenia, but it is not exactly clear which of these deficits actually engender motivational impairments in SZ. The purpose of this chapter is to examine how various reinforcement-related behavioral and neural signals could contribute to motivational impairments in both schizophrenia, and psychiatric illness, in general. In particular, we describe different aspects of the concept of expected value (EV), such as the distinction between the EV of stimuli and the expected value of actions, the acquisition of value vs. the estimation of value, and the discounting of value as a consequence of time or effort required. We conclude that avolition and anhedonia in SZ are most commonly tied to aberrant signals for expected value, in the context of learning. We discuss implications for further research on the neural substrates of motivational impairments in psychiatric illness. PMID:26370946

  2. Characterization of distributions by conditional expectation of record values

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.H. Khan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A family of continuous probability distributions has been characterized by two conditional expectations of record statistics conditioned on a non-adjacent record value. Besides various deductions, this work extends the result of Lee [8] in which Pareto distribution has been characterized.

  3. Vacuum expectation values in a scalar constrained theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, F.; Julve, J.; Tiemblo, A.

    1985-01-01

    A class of finite Green functions in the context of a scalar constrained theory is studied. In a particular model the one-point GFs show that the vacuum expectation values for some fields vanish while one of them remains finite, a feature exhibited by the Goldstone and Higgs fields respectively. (orig.)

  4. On Reggeon field theories and nonzero vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venturi, G.

    1976-01-01

    In this note it is obtained a satisfactory ''nonrelativistic'' reggeon theory by starting from a ''relativistic'' one, examining its ''nonrelativistic'' limit and allowing a nonzero vacuum expectation value for the pomeron field. In such a context the introduction of secondary trajectories is also studied

  5. Vacuum expectation values for four-fermion operators. Model estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhitnitskij, A.R.

    1985-01-01

    Some simple models (a system with a heavy quark, the rarefied insatanton gas) are used to investigate the problem of factorizability. Characteristics of vacuum fluctuations responsible for saturation of four-fermion vacuum expectation values which are known phenomenologically are discussed. A qualitative agreement between the model and phenomenologic;l estimates has been noted

  6. Vacuum expectation values of four-fermion operators. Model estimates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhitnitskii, A.R.

    1985-01-01

    Simple models (a system with a heavy quark, a rarefied instanton gas) are used to study problems of factorizability. A discussion is given of the characteristics of the vacuum fluctuations responsible for saturation of the phenomenologically known four-fermion vacuum expectation values. Qualitative agreement between the model and phenomenological estimates is observed

  7. Expectation values of the e+PsH system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, J.-Y.; Mitroy, J.

    2007-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + PsH are computed using a ground-state wave function consisting of 1500 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + PsH ∞ energy was -0.810 254 hartrees, which has a binding energy of 0.021 057 hartrees against dissociation into e + +PsH. The 2γ annihilation rate was 2.7508x10 9 s -1 . Binding energies and annihilation rates are also given for the different finite-mass variants of e + PsH. Comparisons between expectation values for e + PsH and PsH provide compelling evidence that the e + PsH ground state can be regarded as consisting of a weakly bound positron orbiting the PsH ground state

  8. Energy and expectation values of the PsH system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2006-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for PsH are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1800 explicitly correlated gaussians. The best estimate of the Ps ∞ H energy was -0.789 196 740 hartree which is the lowest variational energy to date. The 2γ annihilation rate for Ps ∞ H was 2.471 78x10 9 s -1

  9. Giving the Expectancy-Value Model a Heart

    OpenAIRE

    Henning, V.; Hennig-Thurau, T.; Feiereisen, S.

    2012-01-01

    Over the past decade, research in consumer behavior has debated the role of emotion in consumer decision making intensively but has offered few attempts to integrate emotion-related findings with established theoretical frameworks. This manuscript augments the classical expectancy-value model of attitude with a dimensional model of emotion. An experiment involving 308 college students who face actual purchase decisions shows that predictions of attitudes, behavioral intentions and actual beha...

  10. Static and dynamic variational principles for expectation values of observables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balian, R.; Veneroni, M.

    1988-01-01

    A general procedure is first reviewed for constructing variational principles (v.p.) suited to the optimization of a quantity of interest. Conditions under which the solution may be obtained as a maximum rather than as a saddle-point are examined. Applications are then worked out, providing v.p. adapted to the evaluation of expectation values, fluctuations or correlations of quantum observables, whether the system is at thermal equilibrium or whether it has evolved. Another class of v.p. concerns dynamical problems. The general method allows to recover a known time-dependent v.p. for a state and an observable [3,13] which answers the following question. Given the state of the system at the time t 0 , what is the expectation value at a later time t 1 . A more general v.p. applies to situations in which the initial state is too complicated to be handled exactly. Both the approximate initial conditions and the approximate evolution are then determined so as to optimize . Finally, analogous v.p. are constructed in classical statistical mechanics and hamiltonian dynamics. A recent formulation of classical mechanics in terms of covariant Poisson brackets [19] comes out naturally in this context from the v.p. for the evaluation of a classical expectation value

  11. Estimation of expected value for lognormal and gamma distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, G.C.

    1978-01-01

    Concentrations of environmental pollutants tend to follow positively skewed frequency distributions. Two such density functions are the gamma and lognormal. Minimum variance unbiased estimators of the expected value for both densities are available. The small sample statistical properties of each of these estimators were compared for its own distribution, as well as the other distribution to check the robustness of the estimator. Results indicated that the arithmetic mean provides an unbiased estimator when the underlying density function of the sample is either lognormal or gamma, and that the achieved coverage of the confidence interval is greater than 75 percent for coefficients of variation less than two. Further Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to study the robustness of the above estimators by simulating a lognormal or gamma distribution with the expected value of a particular observation selected from a uniform distribution before the lognormal or gamma observation is generated. Again, the arithmetic mean provides an unbiased estimate of expected value, and the coverage of the confidence interval is greater than 75 percent for coefficients of variation less than two

  12. Examination of the use of the expectation value of risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The UK regulatory authorities have published guidance on the requirements for authorisation for the disposal of low-level and intermediate-level radioactive waste. The guidance specifies an individual risk target for the post-closure period and requires developers to consider collective radiological impacts. Information on how risks and impacts should be calculated or assessed has not been published. The objective of this project was to identify a suitable approach for making judgements of acceptability in relation to a risk target. The project examined the basis for using the expectation value of risk and investigated what approach the Agency might adopt in judging the acceptability of a dose versus probability profile for a given facility. Regulatory criteria are often expressed as a single number representing a constraint, limit or target. However, calculations or measurements of quantities for comparison with these criteria commonly give rise to distributions rather than single values. The expectation value of a distribution, which is equivalent to the arithmetic average, is one means of summarising a distribution as a single value. The project included general consideration of the mathematical basis of the expectation value of a distribution, with specific reference to the calculation of the expectation value of risk. The disadvantages of using the expectation value were also examined in the project. These include its sensitivity to changes at the high-end of the distribution, the need for an arbitrary integration limit for distributions that cannot be integrated analytically and the fact that risk is calculated as a function of time for each of many sets of events. The concept of risk as a basis for regulatory decision-making is becoming more widespread, particularly in the European Union, as directives such as the Control of Major Accident Hazards become effective. Planning of industrial development and transport systems does take account of risks to

  13. Expectation values of the e+Li system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2004-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + Li are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1200 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + Li energy was -7.532 895 5 hartree which has a binding energy of 0.002 482 hartree against dissociation into Ps+Li + . The 2γ annihilation rate for the spin singlet state was 6.996x10 9 s -1 . The annihilation rate for the triplet state, taking into account core annihilation and the 3γ decay, was 9.36x10 6 s -1

  14. Plaquette expectation value and gluon condensate in three dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hietanen, Ari; Kajantie, Keijo; Schroeder, York; Laine, Mikko; Rummukainen, Kari

    2005-01-01

    In three dimensions, the gluon condensate of pure SU(3) gauge theory has ultraviolet divergences up to 4-loop level only. By subtracting the corresponding terms from lattice measurements of the plaquette expectation value and extrapolating to the continuum limit, we extract the finite part of the gluon condensate in lattice regularization. Through a change of regularization scheme to MS-bar and (inverse) dimensional reduction, this result would determine the first non-perturbative coefficient in the weak-coupling expansion of hot QCD pressure. (author)

  15. Plaquette expectation value and gluon condensate in three dimensions

    CERN Document Server

    Hietanen, A; Laine, Mikko; Rummukainen, K; Schröder, Y

    2005-01-01

    In three dimensions, the gluon condensate of pure SU(3) gauge theory has ultraviolet divergences up to 4-loop level only. By subtracting the corresponding terms from lattice measurements of the plaquette expectation value and extrapolating to the continuum limit, we extract the finite part of the gluon condensate in lattice regularization. Through a change of regularization scheme to MSbar and (inverse) dimensional reduction, this result would determine the first non-perturbative coefficient in the weak-coupling expansion of hot QCD pressure.

  16. The Effect of Expected Value on Attraction Effect Preference Reversals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, George D; Warren, Paul A; El-Deredy, Wael; Howes, Andrew

    2017-10-01

    The attraction effect shows that adding a third alternative to a choice set can alter preference between the original two options. For over 30 years, this simple demonstration of context dependence has been taken as strong evidence against a class of parsimonious value-maximising models that evaluate alternatives independently from one another. Significantly, however, in previous demonstrations of the attraction effect alternatives are approximately equally valuable, so there was little consequence to the decision maker irrespective of which alternative was selected. Here we vary the difference in expected value between alternatives and provide the first demonstration that, although extinguished with large differences, this theoretically important effect persists when choice between alternatives has a consequence. We use this result to clarify the implications of the attraction effect, arguing that although it robustly violates the assumptions of value-maximising models, it does not eliminate the possibility that human decision making is optimal. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Behavioral Decision Making Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. Expectation values of the e+He(3Se) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitroy, J.

    2005-01-01

    Close to converged energies and expectation values for e + He( 3 S e ) are computed using a ground state wave function consisting of 1500 explicitly correlated Gaussians. The best estimate of the e + He( 3 S e ) energy was -2.250 595 08 hartree, which has a binding energy of 0.000 595 08 hartree against dissociation into Ps+He + . The 2γ annihilation rate for the spin doublet state was 5.713x10 9 s -1 . The estimated annihilation rate with the core He + electron was 2.506x10 6 s -1 . The derived enhancement factor for annihilation with the He + (1s) core was 2.29, just over 10% smaller than the enhancement factor derived from analyses of annihilation during e + -He + scattering. The diffuse nature of the wave function, with well separated He + and Ps subsystems, is demonstarted to be on the threshold of satisfying the formal criteria that define a quantum halo state

  18. Connecting Expectations and Values: Students' Perceptions of Developmental Mathematics in a Computer-Based Learning Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Karen Latrice Terrell

    2014-01-01

    Students' perceptions influence their expectations and values. According to Expectations and Values Theory of Achievement Motivation (EVT-AM), students' expectations and values impact their behaviors (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002). This study seeks to find students' perceptions of developmental mathematics in a mastery learning computer-based…

  19. Probing for the Multiplicative Term in Modern Expectancy-Value Theory: A Latent Interaction Modeling Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trautwein, Ulrich; Marsh, Herbert W.; Nagengast, Benjamin; Ludtke, Oliver; Nagy, Gabriel; Jonkmann, Kathrin

    2012-01-01

    In modern expectancy-value theory (EVT) in educational psychology, expectancy and value beliefs additively predict performance, persistence, and task choice. In contrast to earlier formulations of EVT, the multiplicative term Expectancy x Value in regression-type models typically plays no major role in educational psychology. The present study…

  20. Expected value of finite fission chain lengths of pulse reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jianjun; Zhou Zhigao; Zhang Ben'ai

    2007-01-01

    The average neutron population necessary for sponsoring a persistent fission chain in a multiplying system, is discussed. In the point reactor model, the probability function θ(n, t 0 , t) of a source neutron at time t 0 leading to n neutrons at time t is dealt with. The non-linear partial differential equation for the probability generating function G(z; t 0 , t) is derived. By solving the equation, we have obtained an approximate analytic solution for a slightly prompt supercritical system. For the pulse reactor Godiva-II, the mean value of finite fission chain lengths is estimated in this work and shows that the estimated value is reasonable for the experimental analysis. (authors)

  1. Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    depend on the reader’s own experiences, individual feelings, personal associations or on conventions of reading, interpretive communities and cultural conditions? This volume brings together narrative theory, fictionality theory and speech act theory to address such questions of expectations...

  2. Expectancy-Value Theory in Persistence of Learning Effects in Schizophrenia: Role of Task Value and Perceived Competency

    OpenAIRE

    Choi, Jimmy; Fiszdon, Joanna M.; Medalia, Alice

    2010-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory, a widely accepted model of motivation, posits that expectations of success on a learning task and the individual value placed on the task are central determinants of motivation to learn. This is supported by research in healthy controls suggesting that beliefs of self-and-content mastery can be so influential they can predict the degree of improvement on challenging cognitive tasks even more so than general cognitive ability. We examined components of expectancy-value...

  3. Predicting Success in an Online Course Using Expectancies, Values, and Typical Mode of Instruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Whitney Alicia

    2017-01-01

    Expectancies of success and values were used to predict success in an online undergraduate-level introductory statistics course. Students who identified as primarily face-to-face learners were compared to students who identified as primarily online learners. Expectancy value theory served as a model. Expectancies of success were operationalized as…

  4. Most negative and most positive expectation values of the spin operator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zamick, Larry

    2011-01-01

    Formulas for the most positive and most negative values of the expectation of the spin operator are given and compared with single-particle values. The Nilsson model is used to evaluate these expectations and a scenario is discussed where the value is greater than one.

  5. Why work? : the contribution of value perceptions and efficacy expectations to organizational commitment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, Hubrecht A.

    2006-01-01

    The dissertation describes a project aimed at an understanding of the way both (congruence between) organizational and individual values and efficacy expectations contribute to organizational commitment.

  6. Two results on expected values of imbalance indices of phylogenetic trees

    OpenAIRE

    Mir, Arnau; Rossello, Francesc

    2012-01-01

    We compute an explicit formula for the expected value of the Colless index of a phylogenetic tree generated under the Yule model, and an explicit formula for the expected value of the Sackin index of a phylogenetic tree generated under the uniform model.

  7. Adolescent Expectancy-Value Motivation, Achievement in Physical Education, and Physical Activity Participation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xihe; Chen, Ang

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the relation between adolescent expectancy-value motivation, achievements, and after-school physical activity participation. Adolescents (N = 854) from 12 middle schools completed an expectancy-value motivation questionnaire, pre and posttests in psychomotor skill and health-related fitness knowledge tests, and a three-day…

  8. Cost Perception and the Expectancy-Value Model of Achievement Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Patricia N.

    The expectancy-value model of achievement motivation, first described by J. Atkinson (1957) and refined by J. Eccles and her colleagues (1983, 1992, 1994) predicts achievement motivation based on expectancy for success and perceived task value. Cost has been explored very little. To explore the possibility that cost is different from expectancy…

  9. Ninth Graders' Energy Balance Knowledge and Physical Activity Behavior: An Expectancy-Value Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Senlin; Chen, Ang

    2012-01-01

    Expectancy beliefs and task values are two essential motivators in physical education. This study was designed to identify the relation between the expectancy-value constructs (Eccles & Wigfield, 1995) and high school students' physical activity behavior as associated with their energy balance knowledge. High school students (N = 195) in two…

  10. Is Recess an Achievement Context? An Application of Expectancy-Value Theory to Playground Choices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer-Cavaliere, Nancy; Dunn, Janice Causgrove; Watkinson, E. Jane

    2009-01-01

    This study investigated the application of an expectancy-value model to children's activity choices on the playground at recess. The purpose was to test the prediction that expectancies for success and subjective task values are related to decisions to engage in specific recess activities such as climbing, playing soccer, or skipping rope.…

  11. Children's Perceived Cost for Exercise: Application of an Expectancy-Value Paradigm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Evelyn S.; Byrd, Sandra P.; Molin, Ashley J.

    2011-01-01

    Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth…

  12. Achievement, Motivation, and Educational Choices: A Longitudinal Study of Expectancy and Value Using a Multiplicative Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jiesi; Parker, Philip D.; Marsh, Herbert W.; Morin, Alexandre J. S.

    2015-01-01

    Drawing on the expectancy-value model, the present study explored individual and gender differences in university entry and selection of educational pathway (e.g., science, technology, engineering, and mathematics [STEM] course selection). In particular, we examined the multiplicative effects of expectancy and task values on educational outcomes…

  13. Expectancy-Value and Cognitive Process Outcomes in Mathematics Learning: A Structural Equation Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phan, Huy P.

    2014-01-01

    Existing research has yielded evidence to indicate that the expectancy-value theoretical model predicts students' learning in various achievement contexts. Achievement values and self-efficacy expectations, for example, have been found to exert positive effects on cognitive process and academic achievement outcomes. We tested a conceptual model…

  14. College Students' Motivation toward Weight Training: An Application of Expectancy-Value Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zan; Xiang, Ping

    2008-01-01

    Guided by an expectancy-value model of achievement choice (Eccles et al., 1983; Wigfield & Eccles, 2000), the relationships among expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values (importance, interest, and usefulness), and achievement outcomes (intention, engagement, and performance) were examined in a college-level beginning weight training…

  15. Children's motivation in elementary physical education: an expectancy-value model of achievement choice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Ping; McBride, Ron; Guan, Jianmin; Solmon, Melinda

    2003-03-01

    This study examined children's motivation in elementary physical education within an expectancy-value model developed by Eccles and her colleagues. Four hundred fourteen students in second and fourth grades completed questionnaires assessing their expectancy-related beliefs, subjective task values, and intention for future participation in physical education. Results indicated that expectancy-related beliefs and subjective task values were clearly distinguishable from one another across physical education and throwing. The two constructs were related to each other positively. Children's intention for future participation in physical education was positively associated with their subjective task values and/or expectancy-related beliefs. Younger children had higher motivation for learning in physical education than older children. Gender differences emerged and the findings provided empirical evidence supporting the validity of the expectancy-value model in elementary physical education.

  16. Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Joshua D; Ewing, Michael T; Burney, Sue; Hay, Margaret

    2012-01-01

    The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2 = 0.21) and intention (adjusted R2 = 0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.

  17. Assessing the Expected Value of Research Studies in Reducing Uncertainty and Improving Implementation Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    2017-07-01

    With low implementation of cost-effective health technologies being a problem in many health systems, it is worth considering the potential effects of research on implementation at the time of health technology assessment. Meaningful and realistic implementation estimates must be of dynamic nature. To extend existing methods for assessing the value of research studies in terms of both reduction of uncertainty and improvement in implementation by considering diffusion based on expert beliefs with and without further research conditional on the strength of evidence. We use expected value of sample information and expected value of specific implementation measure concepts accounting for the effects of specific research studies on implementation and the reduction of uncertainty. Diffusion theory and elicitation of expert beliefs about the shape of diffusion curves inform implementation dynamics. We illustrate use of the resulting dynamic expected value of research in a preterm birth screening technology and results are compared with those from a static analysis. Allowing for diffusion based on expert beliefs had a significant impact on the expected value of research in the case study, suggesting that mistakes are made where static implementation levels are assumed. Incorporating the effects of research on implementation resulted in an increase in the expected value of research compared to the expected value of sample information alone. Assessing the expected value of research in reducing uncertainty and improving implementation dynamics has the potential to complement currently used analyses in health technology assessments, especially in recommendations for further research. The combination of expected value of research, diffusion theory, and elicitation described in this article is an important addition to the existing methods of health technology assessment.

  18. Adults' Learning Motivation: Expectancy of Success, Value, and the Role of Affective Memories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gorges, Julia; Kandler, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The present study tested the applicability of expectancy-value theory to adults' learning motivation. Motivation was measured as the anticipated reaction (AR) of German students (N = 300) to receiving their instructions in English as a new learning opportunity. We used structural equation modeling to test our hypotheses. Expectancies of success…

  19. Expectancy-value theory in persistence of learning effects in schizophrenia: role of task value and perceived competency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Jimmy; Fiszdon, Joanna M; Medalia, Alice

    2010-09-01

    Expectancy-value theory, a widely accepted model of motivation, posits that expectations of success on a learning task and the individual value placed on the task are central determinants of motivation to learn. This is supported by research in healthy controls suggesting that beliefs of self-and-content mastery can be so influential they can predict the degree of improvement on challenging cognitive tasks even more so than general cognitive ability. We examined components of expectancy-value theory (perceived competency and task value), along with baseline arithmetic performance and neuropsychological performance, as possible predictors of learning outcome in a sample of 70 outpatients with schizophrenia randomized to 1 of 2 different arithmetic learning conditions and followed up after 3 months. Results indicated that as with nonpsychiatric samples, perceived self-competency for the learning task was significantly related to perceptions of task value attributed to the learning task. Baseline expectations of success predicted persistence of learning on the task at 3-month follow-up, even after accounting for variance attributable to different arithmetic instruction, baseline arithmetic ability, attention, and self-reports of task interest and task value. We also found that expectation of success is a malleable construct, with posttraining improvements persisting at follow-up. These findings support the notion that expectancy-value theory is operative in schizophrenia. Thus, similar to the nonpsychiatric population, treatment benefits may be enhanced and better maintained if remediation programs also focus on perceptions of self-competency for the training tasks. Treatment issues related to instilling self-efficacy in cognitive recovery programs are discussed.

  20. Corroboration of the J-value model for life-expectancy growth in industrialised countries

    OpenAIRE

    Thomas, Philip

    2017-01-01

    After including an allowance for the gap between male and female life expectancies at birth diminishing over the past 50 years in industrialized countries, the J-value model incorporating “male catch-up” has been validated against actual UK data on life expectancy. A close correspondence has also been found between forecasts for life expectancy at birth in 35 countries made by the J-value model and those produced in a recent study that applied Bayesian model averaging to 21 demographic projec...

  1. Orbital and total atomic momentum expectation values with Roothaan-Hartree-Fock wave functions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De La Vega, J.M.G.; Miguel, B.

    1993-01-01

    Orbital and total momentum expectation values are computed using the Roothaan-Hartree-Fock wave functions of Clementi and Roetti. These values are calculated analytically and may be used to study the quality of basis sets. Tabulations for ground and excited states of atoms from Z = 2 to Z = 54 are presented. 23 refs., 1 tab

  2. Intergenerational Patterns of Values and Autonomy Expectations in Cultures of Relatedness and Separatedness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Sunita Mahtani; Bond, Michael Harris; Deeds, Osvelia; Chung, Siu Fung

    1999-01-01

    Investigated value priorities and autonomy expectations in 59 pairs of Caucasian and 66 pairs of Asian teenagers and their mothers in Hong Kong. Findings support models that predict persistent family interdependence despite adoption of many individualist values in modernizing collectivist cultures. (SLD)

  3. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doménech-Betoret, Fernando; Abellán-Roselló, Laura; Gómez-Artiga, Amparo

    2017-01-01

    Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy-achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM). The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy) played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy-achievement and efficacy-course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

  4. Self-Efficacy, Satisfaction, and Academic Achievement: The Mediator Role of Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Doménech-Betoret

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is considerable evidence to support the direct effects of self-efficacy beliefs on academic achievement, very few studies have explored the motivational mechanism that mediates the self-efficacy–achievement relationship, and they are necessary to understand how and why self-efficacy affects students' academic achievement. Based on a socio-cognitive perspective of motivation, this study examines the relationships among academic self-efficacy, students' expectancy-value beliefs, teaching process satisfaction, and academic achievement. Its main aim is to identify some motivational-underlying processes through which students' academic self-efficacy affects student achievement and satisfaction. Student achievement and satisfaction are two of the most important learning outcomes, and are considered key indicators of education quality. The sample comprises 797 Spanish secondary education students from 36 educational settings and three schools. The scales that referred to self-efficacy and expectancy-value beliefs were administered at the beginning of the course, while student satisfaction and achievement were measured at the end of the course. The data analysis was conducted by structural equation modeling (SEM. The results revealed that students' expectancy-value beliefs (Subject value, Process expectancy, Achievement expectancy, Cost expectancy played a mediator role between academic self-efficacy and the achievement/satisfaction relationship. These results provided empirical evidence to better understand the mechanism that mediates self-efficacy–achievement and efficacy–course satisfaction relationships. The implications of these findings for teaching and learning in secondary education are discussed.

  5. Expected net present value of sample information: from burden to investment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Peter S; Edlin, Richard; Kharroubi, Samer; Gregory, Walter; McCabe, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    The Expected Value of Information Framework has been proposed as a method for identifying when health care technologies should be immediately reimbursed and when any reimbursement should be withheld while awaiting more evidence. This framework assesses the value of obtaining additional evidence to inform a current reimbursement decision. This represents the burden of not having the additional evidence at the time of the decision. However, when deciding whether to reimburse now or await more evidence, decision makers need to know the value of investing in more research to inform a future decision. Assessing this value requires consideration of research costs, research time, and what happens to patients while the research is undertaken and after completion. The investigators describe a development of the calculation of the expected value of sample information that assesses the value of investing in further research, including an only-in-research strategy and an only-with-research strategy.

  6. Investigating and improving student understanding of the expectation values of observables in quantum mechanics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marshman, Emily; Singh, Chandralekha

    2017-01-01

    The expectation value of an observable is an important concept in quantum mechanics since measurement outcomes are, in general, probabilistic and we only have information about the probability distribution of measurement outcomes in a given quantum state of a system. However, we find that upper-level undergraduate and PhD students in physics have both conceptual and procedural difficulties when determining the expectation value of a physical observable in a given quantum state in terms of the eigenstates and eigenvalues of the corresponding operator, especially when using Dirac notation. Here we first describe the difficulties that these students have with determining the expectation value of an observable in Dirac notation. We then discuss how the difficulties found via student responses to written surveys and individual interviews were used as a guide in the development of a quantum interactive learning tutorial (QuILT) to help students develop a good grasp of the expectation value. The QuILT strives to help students integrate conceptual understanding and procedural skills to develop a coherent understanding of the expectation value. We discuss the effectiveness of the QuILT in helping students learn this concept from in-class evaluations. (paper)

  7. Impaired Expected Value Computations Coupled With Overreliance on Stimulus-Response Learning in Schizophrenia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernaus, Dennis; Gold, James M; Waltz, James A; Frank, Michael J

    2018-04-03

    While many have emphasized impaired reward prediction error signaling in schizophrenia, multiple studies suggest that some decision-making deficits may arise from overreliance on stimulus-response systems together with a compromised ability to represent expected value. Guided by computational frameworks, we formulated and tested two scenarios in which maladaptive representations of expected value should be most evident, thereby delineating conditions that may evoke decision-making impairments in schizophrenia. In a modified reinforcement learning paradigm, 42 medicated people with schizophrenia and 36 healthy volunteers learned to select the most frequently rewarded option in a 75-25 pair: once when presented with a more deterministic (90-10) pair and once when presented with a more probabilistic (60-40) pair. Novel and old combinations of choice options were presented in a subsequent transfer phase. Computational modeling was employed to elucidate contributions from stimulus-response systems (actor-critic) and expected value (Q-learning). People with schizophrenia showed robust performance impairments with increasing value difference between two competing options, which strongly correlated with decreased contributions from expected value-based learning (Q-learning). Moreover, a subtle yet consistent contextual choice bias for the probabilistic 75 option was present in people with schizophrenia, which could be accounted for by a context-dependent reward prediction error in the actor-critic. We provide evidence that decision-making impairments in schizophrenia increase monotonically with demands placed on expected value computations. A contextual choice bias is consistent with overreliance on stimulus-response learning, which may signify a deficit secondary to the maladaptive representation of expected value. These results shed new light on conditions under which decision-making impairments may arise. Copyright © 2018 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by

  8. Fertility in The Netherlands as an expected value process and developmental readiness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taris, T W

    1998-01-01

    In this 2-wave panel study, the decision to have children was examined in the context of Feather's (1982) expectancy-value model among a representative sample of 288 childless Dutch adults aged 18-30 years. The effects of 2 indicators of developmental readiness (age and duration of relationship) were also explored. It was expected that (a) the likelihood of having a baby would increase as a function of intentions, evaluations of being childless, and expected rewards of having children and (b) developmental readiness would be positively related to whether respondents had children at the 2nd wave of the study. Structural equation modeling was used. The results largely supported expectations. Developmental readiness affected fertility both directly and indirectly via the expected rewards of having children.

  9. Calculating infrared contributions to vacuum expectation values of gluonic and quark fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arbuzov, B.A.; Boos, E.E.; Turashvili, K.Sh.

    1986-01-01

    Based on the infrared asymptotics of the lower QCD Green's functions obtained before, we propose a definition and elaborate a technique for calculating non-perturbative vacuum expectations of gluon and quark fields. In our calculations, we use only the known QCD parameters: constituent quark masses, the confining potential slope and the QCD parameter Λ. The values obtained for the vacuum expectations agree well with experiment. (orig.)

  10. An expectancy-value model of emotion regulation: implications for motivation, emotional experience, and decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamir, Maya; Bigman, Yochanan E; Rhodes, Emily; Salerno, James; Schreier, Jenna

    2015-02-01

    According to expectancy-value models of self-regulation, people are motivated to act in ways they expect to be useful to them. For instance, people are motivated to run when they believe running is useful, even when they have nothing to run away from. Similarly, we propose an expectancy-value model of emotion regulation, according to which people are motivated to emote in ways they expect to be useful to them, regardless of immediate contextual demands. For instance, people may be motivated to get angry when they believe anger is useful, even when there is nothing to be angry about. In 5 studies, we demonstrate that leading people to expect an emotion to be useful increased their motivation to experience that emotion (Studies 1-5), led them to up-regulate the experience of that emotion (Studies 3-4), and led to emotion-consistent behavior (Study 4). Our hypotheses were supported when we manipulated the expected value of anxiety (Study 1) and anger (Studies 2-5), both consciously (Studies 1-4) and unconsciously (Study 5). We discuss the theoretical and pragmatic implications of the proposed model. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

  11. Attitudes and values expected of public health nursing students at graduation: A delphi study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okura, Mika; Takizawa, Hiroko

    2018-06-01

    The skills and knowledge of the competencies expected of public health nursing (PHN) students at graduation have been clarified; however, the attitudes and values have not yet been studied in Japan. The objective of this study was to identify and reach a consensus among experts on the attitudes and values expected of PHN students at graduation. This survey was conducted as a two-stage Delphi study. We selected the following experts: 248 teachers in the faculty of public health nursing at a university as academic experts, and 250 public health nurses who were also experienced clinical instructors as clinical experts. The round 1 mailed survey was conducted using a questionnaire about the necessity and importance of attitudes and values, and 211 experts responded (42.4%, clinical; n = 124, academic; n = 87). In the Round 2 survey, the experts consisted of 60.2% of the round 1 participants (clinical; n = 73, academic; n = 54). Descriptive statistics were used for multiple imputation. We identified a total of 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, and reached ≥90% consensus for most items (except for one). Regarding the expected achievement level at graduation, there was no difference between clinical and academic experts except for one item. Consensus was clearly achieved for 13 attitudes and values expected of PHN students, as well as importance and expected achievement level at graduation. In the future, it is important to examine strategies that can effectively develop these attitudes and values through basic and continuous education. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. String-coupling constant and dilaton vacuum expectation value in string field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoneya, Tamiaki

    1987-01-01

    In the first quantized approaches to strings, it is well known that the string-coupling constant is determined by the vacuum expectation value of the dilaton field. This property, however, has never been demonstrated within the framework of string field theory. An explicit reparametrization of the string field associated with the shifts of the dilaton vacuum expectation value and the string-coupling constant is constructed exhibiting the above property in the light-cone field theory of the closed bosonic string. (orig.)

  13. Implicit Theories, Expectancies, and Values Predict Mathematics Motivation and Behavior across High School and College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Priess-Groben, Heather A; Hyde, Janet Shibley

    2017-06-01

    Mathematics motivation declines for many adolescents, which limits future educational and career options. The present study sought to identify predictors of this decline by examining whether implicit theories assessed in ninth grade (incremental/entity) predicted course-taking behaviors and utility value in college. The study integrated implicit theory with variables from expectancy-value theory to examine potential moderators and mediators of the association of implicit theories with college mathematics outcomes. Implicit theories and expectancy-value variables were assessed in 165 American high school students (47 % female; 92 % White), who were then followed into their college years, at which time mathematics courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value were assessed. Implicit theories predicted course-taking intentions and utility value, but only self-concept of ability predicted courses taken, course-taking intentions, and utility value after controlling for prior mathematics achievement and baseline values. Expectancy for success in mathematics mediated associations between self-concept of ability and college outcomes. This research identifies self-concept of ability as a stronger predictor than implicit theories of mathematics motivation and behavior across several years: math self-concept is critical to sustained engagement in mathematics.

  14. Children's perceived cost for exercise: application of an expectancy-value paradigm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Evelyn S; Byrd, Sandra P; Molin, Ashley J

    2011-04-01

    Expectancy-value models of motivation have been applied to understanding children's choices in areas such as academics and sports. Here, an expectancy-value paradigm is applied to exercising (defined as engaging in physical activity). The notion of perceived cost is highlighted in particular. Two hundred twenty children in third, fourth, and fifth grades were surveyed on their competence beliefs, perceived importance, interest, and perceived cost of being physically active. Results indicated that perceived cost is empirically distinct from competence beliefs and other types of value, that perceived cost is marginally related to children's self-reported level of physical activity, and children's beliefs and other values are related to their self-reported level of physical activity. Children's perceptions of cost vary depending on grade and gender. Interventions based on these findings are proposed.

  15. The expected value of possession in professional rugby league match-play.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kempton, Thomas; Kennedy, Nicholas; Coutts, Aaron J

    2016-01-01

    This study estimated the expected point value for starting possessions in different field locations during rugby league match-play and calculated the mean expected points for each subsequent play during the possession. It also examined the origin of tries scored according to the method of gaining possession. Play-by-play data were taken from all 768 regular-season National Rugby League (NRL) matches during 2010-2013. A probabilistic model estimated the expected point outcome based on the net difference in points scored by a team in possession in a given situation. An iterative method was used to approximate the value of each situation based on actual scoring outcomes. Possessions commencing close to the opposition's goal-line had the highest expected point equity, which decreased as the location of the possession moved towards the team's own goal-line. Possessions following an opposition error, penalty or goal-line dropout had the highest likelihood of a try being scored on the set subsequent to their occurrence. In contrast, possessions that follow an opposition completed set or a restart were least likely to result in a try. The expected point values framework from our model has applications for informing playing strategy and assessing individual and team performance in professional rugby league.

  16. Decomposing the Roles of Perseveration and Expected Value Representation in Models of the Iowa Gambling Task

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darrell A. Worthy

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Models of human behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT have played a pivotal role in accounting for behavioral differences during decision-making. One critical difference between models that have been used to account for behavior in the IGT is the inclusion or exclusion of the assumption that participants tend to persevere, or stay with the same option over consecutive trials. Models that allow for this assumption include win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS models and reinforcement learning (RL models that include a decay learning rule where expected values for each option decay as they are chosen less often. One shortcoming of RL models that have included decay rules is that the tendency to persevere by sticking with the same option has been conflated with the tendency to select the option with the highest expected value because a single term is used to represent both of these tendencies. In the current work we isolate the tendencies to perseverate and to select the option with the highest expected value by including them as separate terms in a Value-Plus-Perseveration (VPP RL model. Overall the VPP model provides a better fit to data from a large group of participants than models that include a single term to account for both perseveration and the representation of expected value. Simulations of each model show that the VPP model’s simulated choices most closely resemble the decision-making behavior of human subjects. In addition, we also find that parameter estimates of loss aversion are more strongly correlated with performance when perseverative tendencies and expected value representations are decomposed as separate terms within the model. The results suggest that the tendency to persevere and the tendency to select the option that leads to the best net payoff are central components of decision-making behavior in the IGT. Future work should use this model to better examine decision-making behavior.

  17. Decomposing the roles of perseveration and expected value representation in models of the Iowa gambling task.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthy, Darrell A; Pang, Bo; Byrne, Kaileigh A

    2013-01-01

    Models of human behavior in the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) have played a pivotal role in accounting for behavioral differences during decision-making. One critical difference between models that have been used to account for behavior in the IGT is the inclusion or exclusion of the assumption that participants tend to persevere, or stay with the same option over consecutive trials. Models that allow for this assumption include win-stay-lose-shift (WSLS) models and reinforcement learning (RL) models that include a decay learning rule where expected values for each option decay as they are chosen less often. One shortcoming of RL models that have included decay rules is that the tendency to persevere by sticking with the same option has been conflated with the tendency to select the option with the highest expected value because a single term is used to represent both of these tendencies. In the current work we isolate the tendencies to perseverate and to select the option with the highest expected value by including them as separate terms in a Value-Plus-Perseveration (VPP) RL model. Overall the VPP model provides a better fit to data from a large group of participants than models that include a single term to account for both perseveration and the representation of expected value. Simulations of each model show that the VPP model's simulated choices most closely resemble the decision-making behavior of human subjects. In addition, we also find that parameter estimates of loss aversion are more strongly correlated with performance when perseverative tendencies and expected value representations are decomposed as separate terms within the model. The results suggest that the tendency to persevere and the tendency to select the option that leads to the best net payoff are central components of decision-making behavior in the IGT. Future work should use this model to better examine decision-making behavior.

  18. Investigation of the Effects of Expectation Values for Radii on the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    mation (NCA) wave functions to calculate expectation values of radii. The transition probability ... 1. Introduction. The optical properties of carbon, nitrogen and oxygen atoms are important in both atmospheric and ...... Zheng, N. W. 1988a, A new outline of atomic theory (Jiang Su Education Press). Zheng, N. W. 1988b, Chin.

  19. Expected value information improves financial risk taking across the adult life span.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samanez-Larkin, Gregory R; Wagner, Anthony D; Knutson, Brian

    2011-04-01

    When making decisions, individuals must often compensate for cognitive limitations, particularly in the face of advanced age. Recent findings suggest that age-related variability in striatal activity may increase financial risk-taking mistakes in older adults. In two studies, we sought to further characterize neural contributions to optimal financial risk taking and to determine whether decision aids could improve financial risk taking. In Study 1, neuroimaging analyses revealed that individuals whose mesolimbic activation correlated with the expected value estimates of a rational actor made more optimal financial decisions. In Study 2, presentation of expected value information improved decision making in both younger and older adults, but the addition of a distracting secondary task had little impact on decision quality. Remarkably, provision of expected value information improved the performance of older adults to match that of younger adults at baseline. These findings are consistent with the notion that mesolimbic circuits play a critical role in optimal choice, and imply that providing simplified information about expected value may improve financial risk taking across the adult life span.

  20. Extended space expectation values of position related operators for hydrogen-like quantum system evolutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalay, Berfin; Demiralp, Metin

    2014-01-01

    The expectation value definitions over an extended space from the considered Hilbert space of the system under consideration is given in another paper of the second author in this symposium. There, in that paper, the conceptuality rather than specification is emphasized on. This work uses that conceptuality to investigate the time evolutions of the position related operators' expectation values not in its standard meaning but rather in a new version of the definition over not the original Hilbert space but in the space obtained by extensions via introducing the images of the given initial wave packet under the positive integer powers of the system Hamiltonian. These images may not be residing in the same space of the initial wave packet when certain singularities appear in the structure of the system Hamiltonian. This may break down the existence of the integrals in the definitions of the expectation values. The cure is the use of basis functions in the abovementioned extended space and the sandwiching of the target operator whose expectation value is under questioning by an appropriately chosen operator guaranteeing the existence of the relevant integrals. Work specifically focuses on the hydrogen-like quantum systems whose Hamiltonians contain a polar singularity at the origin

  1. Secondary School Students' Physical Activity Participation across Physical Education Classes: The Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gråstén, Arto; Watt, Anthony; Hagger, Martin; Jaakkola, Timo; Liukkonen, Jarmo

    2015-01-01

    The primary purpose of this study was to analyze the link between students' expectancy beliefs, subjective task values, out-of-school activity, and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) participation across secondary school physical education (PE) classes. The sample comprised 96 students (58 girls, 38 boys; Mage = 15.03, SD = 0.94) from…

  2. The Wilson loop expectation values in 2-and 3-dimensional SU(2) LGT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Zhibing; Zheng Weihong; Guo Shuohong

    1989-01-01

    An improved Monte Carlo scheme is applied to the computation of expectation values of nxm Wilson loops in both 2-and 3-dimensional SU(2) lattice gauge theories. The results are compared with those simulated by the discrete group Y 120 and the exact results in two dimensions

  3. Expectancy-Value models of health behaviour: the role of salience and anticipated affect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pligt, J.; de Vries, N.K.

    1998-01-01

    Expectancy-value models of health behaviour are based upon the assumption that this behaviour is determined by a subjective cost-benefit analysis. Generally, these models emphasize cognitive appraisal processes focusing on the likelihood and evaluation of the consequences of health-related

  4. Computation of expectation values from vibrational coupled-cluster at the two-mode coupling level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zoccante, Alberto; Seidler, Peter; Christiansen, Ove

    2011-01-01

    In this work we show how the vibrational coupled-cluster method at the two-mode coupling level can be used to calculate zero-point vibrational averages of properties. A technique is presented, where any expectation value can be calculated using a single set of Lagrangian multipliers computed...

  5. Locus of Control and Academic Achievement: Integrating Social Learning Theory and Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youse, Keith Edward

    2012-01-01

    The current study examines predictors of math achievement and college graduation by integrating social learning theory and expectancy-value theory. Data came from a nationally-representative longitudinal database tracking 12,144 students over twelve years from 8th grade forward. Models for math achievement and college graduation were tested…

  6. Understanding Middle School Students' Motivation in Math Class: The Expectancy-Value Model Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurt, Eyup

    2015-01-01

    One of the most important variables affecting middle school students' mathematics performance is motivation. Motivation is closely related with expectancy belief regarding the task and value attached to the task. Identification of which one or ones of the factors constituting motivation is more closely related to mathematics performance may help…

  7. Applying an expectancy-value model to study motivators for work-task based information seeking

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sigaard, Karen Tølbøl; Skov, Mette

    2015-01-01

    on the theory of expectancy-value and on the operationalisation used when the model was first developed. Data for the analysis were collected from a sample of seven informants working as consultants in Danish municipalities. Each participant filled out a questionnaire, kept a log book for a week...... for interpersonal and internal sources increased when the task had high-value motivation or low-expectancy motivation or both. Research limitations/implications: The study is based on a relatively small sample and considers only one motivation theory. This should be addressed in future research along...... with a broadening of the studied group to involve other professions than municipality consultants. Originality/value: Motivational theories from the field of psychology have been used sparsely in studies of information seeking. This study operationalises and verifies such a theory based on a theoretical adaptation...

  8. Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heijink, Richard; van Baal, Pieter; Oppe, Mark; Koolman, Xander; Westert, Gert

    2011-06-23

    The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH) have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE) at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers of differences in health-state values across populations. This

  9. Decomposing cross-country differences in quality adjusted life expectancy: the impact of value sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oppe Mark

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The validity, reliability and cross-country comparability of summary measures of population health (SMPH have been persistently debated. In this debate, the measurement and valuation of nonfatal health outcomes have been defined as key issues. Our goal was to quantify and decompose international differences in health expectancy based on health-related quality of life (HRQoL. We focused on the impact of value set choice on cross-country variation. Methods We calculated Quality Adjusted Life Expectancy (QALE at age 20 for 15 countries in which EQ-5D population surveys had been conducted. We applied the Sullivan approach to combine the EQ-5D based HRQoL data with life tables from the Human Mortality Database. Mean HRQoL by country-gender-age was estimated using a parametric model. We used nonparametric bootstrap techniques to compute confidence intervals. QALE was then compared across the six country-specific time trade-off value sets that were available. Finally, three counterfactual estimates were generated in order to assess the contribution of mortality, health states and health-state values to cross-country differences in QALE. Results QALE at age 20 ranged from 33 years in Armenia to almost 61 years in Japan, using the UK value set. The value sets of the other five countries generated different estimates, up to seven years higher. The relative impact of choosing a different value set differed across country-gender strata between 2% and 20%. In 50% of the country-gender strata the ranking changed by two or more positions across value sets. The decomposition demonstrated a varying impact of health states, health-state values, and mortality on QALE differences across countries. Conclusions The choice of the value set in SMPH may seriously affect cross-country comparisons of health expectancy, even across populations of similar levels of wealth and education. In our opinion, it is essential to get more insight into the drivers

  10. Expectancy-Value Beliefs of Early-Adolescent Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Youth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nayssan Safavian

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study used the Eccles et al. expectancy-value (E-V theory to test the influence of motivation on mathematics achievement and enrollment using data from a cohort of 926 seventh-grade prealgebra students (49% male, 76% Hispanic, 76% low income, and 55% English learner. E-V beliefs were assessed in seventh grade along with achievement, and enrollment was measured in eighth grade. Differential associations of motivation, achievement, and enrollment were examined across Hispanic and non-Hispanic populations. Expectancy for success and task value uniquely predicted seventh-grade achievement and eighth-grade algebra enrollment after controlling for prior achievement and a full set of demographic controls, including low socioeconomic status and English fluency. The association of interest value and achievement differentiated across Hispanic and non-Hispanic youth, suggesting that the effect of interest value on mathematics achievement was weaker for Hispanic youth than for non-Hispanics after accounting for success expectations and prior achievement.

  11. Adjusting Estimates of the Expected Value of Information for Implementation: Theoretical Framework and Practical Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andronis, Lazaros; Barton, Pelham M

    2016-04-01

    Value of information (VoI) calculations give the expected benefits of decision making under perfect information (EVPI) or sample information (EVSI), typically on the premise that any treatment recommendations made in light of this information will be implemented instantly and fully. This assumption is unlikely to hold in health care; evidence shows that obtaining further information typically leads to "improved" rather than "perfect" implementation. To present a method of calculating the expected value of further research that accounts for the reality of improved implementation. This work extends an existing conceptual framework by introducing additional states of the world regarding information (sample information, in addition to current and perfect information) and implementation (improved implementation, in addition to current and optimal implementation). The extension allows calculating the "implementation-adjusted" EVSI (IA-EVSI), a measure that accounts for different degrees of implementation. Calculations of implementation-adjusted estimates are illustrated under different scenarios through a stylized case study in non-small cell lung cancer. In the particular case study, the population values for EVSI and IA-EVSI were £ 25 million and £ 8 million, respectively; thus, a decision assuming perfect implementation would have overestimated the expected value of research by about £ 17 million. IA-EVSI was driven by the assumed time horizon and, importantly, the specified rate of change in implementation: the higher the rate, the greater the IA-EVSI and the lower the difference between IA-EVSI and EVSI. Traditionally calculated measures of population VoI rely on unrealistic assumptions about implementation. This article provides a simple framework that accounts for improved, rather than perfect, implementation and offers more realistic estimates of the expected value of research. © The Author(s) 2015.

  12. Stochastic sampling of quadrature grids for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Ríos, Pablo; Monserrat, Bartomeu; Needs, Richard J.

    2018-02-01

    The thermal lines method for the evaluation of vibrational expectation values of electronic observables [B. Monserrat, Phys. Rev. B 93, 014302 (2016), 10.1103/PhysRevB.93.014302] was recently proposed as a physically motivated approximation offering balance between the accuracy of direct Monte Carlo integration and the low computational cost of using local quadratic approximations. In this paper we reformulate thermal lines as a stochastic implementation of quadrature-grid integration, analyze the analytical form of its bias, and extend the method to multiple-point quadrature grids applicable to any factorizable harmonic or anharmonic nuclear wave function. The bias incurred by thermal lines is found to depend on the local form of the expectation value, and we demonstrate that the use of finer quadrature grids along selected modes can eliminate this bias, while still offering an ˜30 % lower computational cost than direct Monte Carlo integration in our tests.

  13. Holography of Wilson-loop expectation values with local operator insertions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miwa, Akitsugu; Yoneya, Tamiaki

    2006-01-01

    We study the expectation values of Wilson-loop operators with the insertions of local operators Z J and Z-bar J for large J from the bulk viewpoint of AdS/CFT correspondence. Classical solutions of strings attached to such deformed Wilson loops at the conformal boundary are constructed and are applied to the computation of Wilson-loop expectation values. We argue that in order to have such solutions for general insertions at finite positions in the base spacetime of the gauge theory, it is crucial to interpret the holographic correspondence in the semi-classical picture as a tunneling phenomenon, as has been previously established for holographic computations of correlators of BMN operators. This also requires to use the Euclideanized AdS background and Euclidean super Yang-Mills theory

  14. Expected reward value and reward uncertainty have temporally dissociable effects on memory formation

    OpenAIRE

    Adcock, R; Clement, Nathaniel; Chiew, Kimberly; Dickerson, Kathryn; Stanek, Jessica

    2018-01-01

    Anticipating rewards has been shown to enhance memory formation. While substantial evidence implicates dopamine in this behavioral effect, the precise mechanisms remain ambiguous. Because dopamine nuclei show two distinct physiological signatures of reward prediction, we hypothesized two dissociable effects on memory formation. These two signatures are a phasic dopamine response immediately following a reward cue that encodes its expected value, and a sustained, ramping dopamine response that...

  15. Chern-Simons expectation values and quantum horizons from loop quantum gravity and the Duflo map.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahlmann, Hanno; Thiemann, Thomas

    2012-03-16

    We report on a new approach to the calculation of Chern-Simons theory expectation values, using the mathematical underpinnings of loop quantum gravity, as well as the Duflo map, a quantization map for functions on Lie algebras. These new developments can be used in the quantum theory for certain types of black hole horizons, and they may offer new insights for loop quantum gravity, Chern-Simons theory and the theory of quantum groups.

  16. Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the major digital currencies

    OpenAIRE

    Stavroyiannis, Stavros

    2017-01-01

    Digital currencies and cryptocurrencies have hesitantly started to penetrate the investors, and the next step will be the regulatory risk management framework. We examine the Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall properties for the major digital currencies, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, and Ripple. The methodology used is GARCH modelling followed by Filtered Historical Simulation. We find that digital currencies are subject to a higher risk, therefore, to higher sufficient buffer and risk capit...

  17. Expectancy-Value Beliefs of Early-Adolescent Hispanic and Non-Hispanic Youth

    OpenAIRE

    Nayssan Safavian; AnneMarie Conley

    2016-01-01

    This study used the Eccles et al. expectancy-value (E-V) theory to test the influence of motivation on mathematics achievement and enrollment using data from a cohort of 926 seventh-grade prealgebra students (49% male, 76% Hispanic, 76% low income, and 55% English learner). E-V beliefs were assessed in seventh grade along with achievement, and enrollment was measured in eighth grade. Differential associations of motivation, achievement, and enrollment were examined across Hispanic and non-His...

  18. A value- and expectancy-based approach to understanding residents' intended response to a wildfire threat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McNeill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Skinner, Timothy C.

    2016-01-01

    To motivate residents to evacuate early in case of a wildfire threat, it is important to know what factors underlie their response-related decision-making. The current paper examines the role of the value and expectancy tied to potential outcomes of defending vs evacuating on awareness...... or wait and see. These findings have important implications for strategies to influence residents' response-related decision-making....

  19. Exact expectation values of local fields in the quantum sine-Gordon model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lukyanov, S.; Rossijskaya Akademiya Nauk, Chernogolovka; Zamolodchikov, A.; Rossijskaya Akademiya Nauk, Chernogolovka

    1997-01-01

    We propose an explicit expression for vacuum expectation values left angle e iaφ right angle of the exponential fields in the sine-Gordon model. Our expression agrees both with semi-classical results in the sine-Gordon theory and with perturbative calculations in the massive Thirring model. We use this expression to make new predictions about the large-distance asymptotic form of the two-point correlation function in the XXZ spin chain. (orig.)

  20. The values expectations of high school graduates at the choice of the faculty and future occupation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Nebojša B.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available There are many psychological references to professional orientation of pupils. However, mainly studied predictors were the role of school, peers, parents, socio-economics factors, and less the role of personality traits, goals, expectations, personal and social values. In this paper the focus is on personal goals and social values defined as specific objectives that are significant for a faculty choice, and therefore a future profession. We use two lists of goals - 18 personal and 18 social, applied to the sample of 497 high school pupils in fourth grade. The study was conducted in school settings. Preference and level of importance of the objectives of respondents have been expressed on the 5-point scale of Likert type, which allowed the statistical analysis of applied methods. The research results show significant differences in individual preferences of the goals and values, as well as the significantly connection of the goals with expectations to be fulfilled by faculty and future career choice. In addition, it was shown that the higher importance is given to personal than social values, which justified starting assumption of the authors, to examine personal and social values separately, since they were shown to have a different significance for professional orientation of young people.

  1. The dimensional salience solution to the expectancy-value muddle: an extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newton, Joshua D; Newton, Fiona J; Ewing, Michael T

    2014-01-01

    The theory of reasoned action (TRA) specifies a set of expectancy-value, belief-based frameworks that underpin attitude (behavioural beliefs × outcome evaluations) and subjective norm (normative beliefs × motivation to comply). Unfortunately, the most common method for analysing these frameworks generates statistically uninterpretable findings, resulting in what has been termed the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Recently, however, a dimensional salience approach was found to resolve this muddle for the belief-based framework underpinning attitude. An online survey of 262 participants was therefore conducted to determine whether the dimensional salience approach could also be applied to the belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm. Results revealed that motivations to comply were greater for salient, as opposed to non-salient, social referents. The belief-based framework underpinning subjective norm was therefore represented by evaluating normative belief ratings for salient social referents. This modified framework was found to predict subjective norm, although predictions were greater when participants were forced to select five salient social referents rather than being free to select any number of social referents. These findings validate the use of the dimensional salience approach for examining the belief-based frameworks underpinning subjective norm. As such, this approach provides a complete solution to addressing the expectancy-value muddle in the TRA.

  2. Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

    2018-01-01

    Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

  3. Understanding Students' Motivation in Sport and Physical Education: From the Expectancy-Value Model and Self-Efficacy Theory Perspectives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zan; Lee, Amelia M.; Harrison, Louis, Jr.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the roles of individuals' expectancy beliefs and incentives (i.e., task value, outcome expectancy) in sport and physical education are examined from expectancy-value model and self-efficacy theory perspectives. Overviews of the two theoretical frameworks and the conceptual and measurement issues are provided, followed by a review…

  4. Pressurizing the STEM Pipeline: an Expectancy-Value Theory Analysis of Youths' STEM Attitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ball, Christopher; Huang, Kuo-Ting; Cotten, Shelia R.; Rikard, R. V.

    2017-08-01

    Over the past decade, there has been a strong national push to increase minority students' positive attitudes towards STEM-related careers. However, despite this focus, minority students have remained underrepresented in these fields. Some researchers have directed their attention towards improving the STEM pipeline which carries students through our educational system and into STEM careers. Previous research has shown that expectancy-value theory (EVT) is useful for examining the short-term as well as long-term academic motivations and intentions of elementary age minority students. These findings provide insights into ways we may be able to potentially "patch" particular STEM pipeline leaks. In the current study, we advance this research by using EVT as a framework to examine the STEM attitudes of young students directly. We hypothesize that students' academic-related expectancies for success and subjective task values will be associated with an increase in STEM attitudes. Data for this study was gathered over the course of a large-scale computing intervention which sought to increase students' STEM interest. This computing intervention took place in an urban elementary school district located within the southeastern USA. Results from this study indicate that both intrinsic values and utility values predict students' STEM attitudes but they influence attitudes related to the various dimensions of STEM differently. These findings demonstrate that EVT provides a useful framework, which can be integrated into future computing interventions, to help encourage positive STEM attitudes in young children, thus increasing the internal pressure (or flow) within the STEM pipeline.

  5. Global value of GM rice: a review of expected agronomic and consumer benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demont, Matty; Stein, Alexander J

    2013-06-25

    Unlike the other major crops, no genetically modified (GM) varieties of rice have been commercialized at a large scale. Within the next 2-3 years new transgenic rice varieties could be ready for regulatory approval and subsequent commercialization, though. Given the importance of rice as staple crop for many of the world's poorest people, this will have implications for the alleviation of poverty, hunger and malnutrition. Thus, policy-makers need to be aware of the potential benefits of GM rice. We provide an overview of the literature and discuss the evidence on expected agronomic and consumer benefits of genetically engineered rice. We find that while GM rice with improved agronomic traits could deliver benefits similar to already commercialized biotechnology crops, expected benefits of consumer traits could be higher by an order of magnitude. By aggregating the expected annual benefits, we estimate the global value of GM rice to be US$64 billion per year. This is only an indicative value, as more GM varieties will become available in future. Nevertheless, such a figure can help guide policy-makers when deciding on the approval or funding of biotechnology crops and it may also raise awareness among consumers about what is at stake for their societies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Benjamin; Trautwein, Ulrich; Kelava, Augustin; Lüdtke, Oliver

    2013-05-01

    Historically, expectancy-value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy-value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy-value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the "×" back into expectancy-value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy-value models.

  7. Benchmark Calculation of Radial Expectation Value for Confined Hydrogen-Like Atoms and Isotropic Harmonic Oscillators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Rong Mei; Zan, Li Rong; Jiao, Li Guang; Ho, Yew Kam

    2017-01-01

    Spatially confined atoms have been extensively investigated to model atomic systems in extreme pressures. For the simplest hydrogen-like atoms and isotropic harmonic oscillators, numerous physical quantities have been established with very high accuracy. However, the expectation value of which is of practical importance in many applications has significant discrepancies among calculations by different methods. In this work we employed the basis expansion method with cut-off Slater-type orbitals to investigate these two confined systems. Accurate values for several low-lying bound states were obtained by carefully examining the convergence with respect to the size of basis. A scaling law for was derived and it is used to verify the accuracy of numerical results. Comparison with other calculations show that the present results establish benchmark values for this quantity, which may be useful in future studies. (author)

  8. Exact finite volume expectation values of local operators in excited states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pozsgay, B. [MTA-BME “Momentum” Statistical Field Theory Research Group,Budafoki út 8, 1111 Budapest (Hungary); Szécsényi, I.M. [Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE (United Kingdom); Institute of Theoretical Physics, Eötvös Loránd University,Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, 1117 Budapest (Hungary); Takács, G. [MTA-BME “Momentum” Statistical Field Theory Research Group,Budafoki út 8, 1111 Budapest (Hungary); Department of Theoretical Physics, Budapest University of Technology and Economics,Budafoki út 8, 1111 Budapest (Hungary)

    2015-04-07

    We present a conjecture for the exact expression of finite volume expectation values in excited states in integrable quantum field theories, which is an extension of an earlier conjecture to the case of general diagonal factorized scattering with bound states and a nontrivial bootstrap structure. The conjectured expression is a spectral expansion which uses the exact form factors and the excited state thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz as building blocks. The conjecture is proven for the case of the trace of the energy-moment tensor. Concerning its validity for more general operators, we provide numerical evidence using the truncated conformal space approach. It is found that the expansion fails to be well-defined for small values of the volume in cases when the singularity structure of the TBA equations undergoes a non-trivial rearrangement under some critical value of the volume. Despite these shortcomings, the conjectured expression is expected to be valid for all volumes for most of the excited states, and as an expansion above the critical volume for the rest.

  9. Exact finite volume expectation values of local operators in excited states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pozsgay, B.; Szécsényi, I.M.; Takács, G.

    2015-01-01

    We present a conjecture for the exact expression of finite volume expectation values in excited states in integrable quantum field theories, which is an extension of an earlier conjecture to the case of general diagonal factorized scattering with bound states and a nontrivial bootstrap structure. The conjectured expression is a spectral expansion which uses the exact form factors and the excited state thermodynamic Bethe Ansatz as building blocks. The conjecture is proven for the case of the trace of the energy-moment tensor. Concerning its validity for more general operators, we provide numerical evidence using the truncated conformal space approach. It is found that the expansion fails to be well-defined for small values of the volume in cases when the singularity structure of the TBA equations undergoes a non-trivial rearrangement under some critical value of the volume. Despite these shortcomings, the conjectured expression is expected to be valid for all volumes for most of the excited states, and as an expansion above the critical volume for the rest.

  10. Using the Expectancy-Value Theory of Motivation to Predict Behavioral and Emotional Risk among High School Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dever, Bridget V.

    2016-01-01

    Within the expectancy-value framework, much work has been done linking expectancies and task values to academic outcomes such as performance, persistence, and choice. Research on the associations between student motivation (including efficacy and task values) and behavioral and emotional problems, however, is nascent. The present study examined a…

  11. Growth rate for the expected value of a generalized random Fibonacci sequence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janvresse, Elise; De la Rue, Thierry; Rittaud, BenoIt

    2009-01-01

    We study the behaviour of generalized random Fibonacci sequences defined by the relation g n = |λg n-1 ± g n-2 |, where the ± sign is given by tossing an unbalanced coin, giving probability p to the + sign. We prove that the expected value of g n grows exponentially fast for any 0 (2 - λ)/4 when λ is of the form 2cos(π/k) for some fixed integer k ≥ 3. In both cases, we give an algebraic expression for the growth rate

  12. Renormalization of vacuum expectation values in spontaneously broken gauge theories: two-loop results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sperling, Marcus; Stöckinger, Dominik; Voigt, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    We complete the two-loop calculation of β-functions for vacuum expectation values (VEVs) in gauge theories by the missing O(g 4 )-terms. The full two-loop results are presented for generic and supersymmetric theories up to two-loop level in arbitrary R ξ -gauge. The results are obtained by means of a scalar background field, identical to our previous analysis. As a by-product, the two-loop scalar anomalous dimension for generic supersymmetric theories is presented. As an application we compute the β-functions for VEVs and tan β in the MSSM, NMSSM, and E 6 SSM

  13. Gauge-invariant expectation values of the energy of a molecule in an electromagnetic field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mandal, Anirban; Hunt, Katharine L. C.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we show that the full Hamiltonian for a molecule in an electromagnetic field can be separated into a molecular Hamiltonian and a field Hamiltonian, both with gauge-invariant expectation values. The expectation value of the molecular Hamiltonian gives physically meaningful results for the energy of a molecule in a time-dependent applied field. In contrast, the usual partitioning of the full Hamiltonian into molecular and field terms introduces an arbitrary gauge-dependent potential into the molecular Hamiltonian and leaves a gauge-dependent form of the Hamiltonian for the field. With the usual partitioning of the Hamiltonian, this same problem of gauge dependence arises even in the absence of an applied field, as we show explicitly by considering a gauge transformation from zero applied field and zero external potentials to zero applied field, but non-zero external vector and scalar potentials. We resolve this problem and also remove the gauge dependence from the Hamiltonian for a molecule in a non-zero applied field and from the field Hamiltonian, by repartitioning the full Hamiltonian. It is possible to remove the gauge dependence because the interaction of the molecular charges with the gauge potential cancels identically with a gauge-dependent term in the usual form of the field Hamiltonian. We treat the electromagnetic field classically and treat the molecule quantum mechanically, but nonrelativistically. Our derivation starts from the Lagrangian for a set of charged particles and an electromagnetic field, with the particle coordinates, the vector potential, the scalar potential, and their time derivatives treated as the variables in the Lagrangian. We construct the full Hamiltonian using a Lagrange multiplier method originally suggested by Dirac, partition this Hamiltonian into a molecular term H m and a field term H f , and show that both H m and H f have gauge-independent expectation values. Any gauge may be chosen for the calculations; but

  14. Minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost in electricity markets based on the prediction error of energy consumption

    OpenAIRE

    Yamaguchi, Naoya; Hori, Maiya; Ideguchi, Yoshinari

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we formulate a method for minimising the expectation value of the procurement cost of electricity in two popular spot markets: {\\it day-ahead} and {\\it intra-day}, under the assumption that expectation value of unit prices and the distributions of prediction errors for the electricity demand traded in two markets are known. The expectation value of the total electricity cost is minimised over two parameters that change the amounts of electricity. Two parameters depend only on t...

  15. Racing Sampling Based Microimmune Optimization Approach Solving Constrained Expected Value Programming

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Yang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This work investigates a bioinspired microimmune optimization algorithm to solve a general kind of single-objective nonlinear constrained expected value programming without any prior distribution. In the study of algorithm, two lower bound sample estimates of random variables are theoretically developed to estimate the empirical values of individuals. Two adaptive racing sampling schemes are designed to identify those competitive individuals in a given population, by which high-quality individuals can obtain large sampling size. An immune evolutionary mechanism, along with a local search approach, is constructed to evolve the current population. The comparative experiments have showed that the proposed algorithm can effectively solve higher-dimensional benchmark problems and is of potential for further applications.

  16. Vacuum Expectation Value Profiles of the Bulk Scalar Field in the Generalized Randall-Sundrum Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moazzen, M.; Tofighi, A.; Farokhtabar, A.

    2015-01-01

    In the generalized Randall-Sundrum warped brane-world model the cosmological constant induced on the visible brane can be positive or negative. In this paper we investigate profiles of vacuum expectation value of the bulk scalar field under general Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions in the generalized warped brane-world model. We show that the VEV profiles generally depend on the value of the brane cosmological constant. We find that the VEV profiles of the bulk scalar field for a visible brane with negative cosmological constant and positive tension are quite distinct from those of Randall-Sundrum model. In addition we show that the VEV profiles for a visible brane with large positive cosmological constant are also different from those of the Randall-Sundrum model. We also verify that Goldberger and Wise mechanism can work under nonzero Dirichlet boundary conditions in the generalized Randall-Sundrum model.

  17. Double impact of sterilizing pathogens: added value of increased life expectancy on pest control effectiveness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berec, Luděk; Maxin, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Sterilizing pathogens are commonly assumed not to affect longevity of infected individuals, and if they do then negatively. Examples abound, however, of species in which the absence of reproduction actually increases life expectancy. This happens because by decreasing the energy outlay on reproduction individuals with lowered reproduction can live longer. Alternatively, fertile individuals are more susceptible to predators or parasitoids if the latter can capitalize on mating signals of the former. Here we develop and analyze an SI epidemiological model to explore whether and to what extent does such a life expectancy prolongation due to sterilizing pathogens affect host dynamics. In particular, we are interested in an added value of increased life expectancy on the possibility of successful pest control, that is, the effect of increased lifespan and hence increased potential of the infected individuals to spread the disease on pest control effectiveness. We show that although the parameter range in which we observe an effect of increased lifespan of the sterilized individuals is not large, the effect itself can be significant. In particular, the increase in pest control effectiveness can be very dramatic when disease transmission efficiency is close to birth rate, mortality rate of susceptibles is relatively high (i.e., the species is relatively short-lived), and sterilization efficiency is relatively high. Our results thus characterize pathogens that are promising candidates for an effective pest control and that might possibly be engineered if not occurring naturally.

  18. Expected net present value of pure and mixed sexed semen artificial insemination strategies in dairy heifers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olynk, N J; Wolf, C A

    2007-05-01

    Sexed semen has been a long-anticipated tool for dairy farmers to obtain more heifer calves, but challenges exist for integrating sexed semen into commercial dairy farm reproduction programs. The decreased conception rates (CR) experienced with sexed semen make virgin heifers better suited for insemination with sexed semen than lactating dairy cows. This research sought to identify when various sexed semen breeding strategies provided higher expected net present value (NPV) than conventional artificial insemination (AI) breeding schemes, indicating which breeding scheme is advisable under various scenarios. Budgets were developed to calculate the expected NPV of various AI breeding strategies incorporating conventional (non-sexed) and sexed semen. In the base budgets, heifer and bull calf values were held constant at $500 and $110, respectively. The percentage of heifers expected to be born after breeding with conventional and sexed semen used was 49.2 and 90%, respectively. Breeding costs per AI were held constant at $15.00 per AI for conventional semen and $45.00 per AI for sexed semen of approximately the same genetic value. Conventional semen CR of 58 and 65% were used, and an AI submission rate was set at 100%. Breeding strategies with sexed semen were assessed for breakeven heifer calf values and sexed semen costs to obtain a NPV equal to that achieved with conventional semen. Breakeven heifer calf values for pure sexed semen strategies with a constant 58 and 65% base CR in which sexed semen achieved 53% of the base CR are $732.11 and $664.26, respectively. Breakeven sexed semen costs per AI of $17.16 and $22.39, compared with $45.00 per AI, were obtained to obtain a NPV equal to that obtained with pure conventional semen for base CR of 58 and 65%, respectively. The strategy employing purely sexed semen, with base CR of both 58 and 65%, yielded a lower NPV than purely conventional semen in all but the best-case scenario in which sexed semen provides 90% of

  19. Coding for Parallel Links to Maximize the Expected Value of Decodable Messages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klimesh, Matthew A.; Chang, Christopher S.

    2011-01-01

    When multiple parallel communication links are available, it is useful to consider link-utilization strategies that provide tradeoffs between reliability and throughput. Interesting cases arise when there are three or more available links. Under the model considered, the links have known probabilities of being in working order, and each link has a known capacity. The sender has a number of messages to send to the receiver. Each message has a size and a value (i.e., a worth or priority). Messages may be divided into pieces arbitrarily, and the value of each piece is proportional to its size. The goal is to choose combinations of messages to send on the links so that the expected value of the messages decodable by the receiver is maximized. There are three parts to the innovation: (1) Applying coding to parallel links under the model; (2) Linear programming formulation for finding the optimal combinations of messages to send on the links; and (3) Algorithms for assisting in finding feasible combinations of messages, as support for the linear programming formulation. There are similarities between this innovation and methods developed in the field of network coding. However, network coding has generally been concerned with either maximizing throughput in a fixed network, or robust communication of a fixed volume of data. In contrast, under this model, the throughput is expected to vary depending on the state of the network. Examples of error-correcting codes that are useful under this model but which are not needed under previous models have been found. This model can represent either a one-shot communication attempt, or a stream of communications. Under the one-shot model, message sizes and link capacities are quantities of information (e.g., measured in bits), while under the communications stream model, message sizes and link capacities are information rates (e.g., measured in bits/second). This work has the potential to increase the value of data returned from

  20. Deviations from tribimaximal mixing due to the vacuum expectation value misalignment in A4 models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, James; Rodejohann, Werner

    2010-01-01

    The addition of an A 4 family symmetry and extended Higgs sector to the standard model can generate the tribimaximal mixing pattern for leptons, assuming the correct vacuum expectation value alignment of the Higgs scalars. Deviating this alignment affects the predictions for the neutrino oscillation and neutrino mass observables. An attempt is made to classify the plethora of models in the literature, with respect to the chosen A 4 particle assignments. Of these models, two particularly popular examples have been analyzed for deviations from tribimaximal mixing by perturbing the vacuum expectation value alignments. The effect of perturbations on the mixing angle observables is studied. However, it is only investigation of the mass-related observables (the effective mass for neutrinoless double beta decay and the sum of masses from cosmology) that can lead to the exclusion of particular models by constraints from future data, which indicates the importance of neutrino mass in disentangling models. The models have also been tested for fine-tuning of the parameters. Furthermore, a well-known seesaw model is generalized to include additional scalars, which transform as representations of A 4 not included in the original model.

  1. Funny money: the attentional role of monetary feedback detached from expected value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roper, Zachary J J; Vecera, Shaun P

    2016-10-01

    Stimuli associated with monetary reward can become powerful cues that effectively capture visual attention. We examined whether such value-driven attentional capture can be induced with monetary feedback in the absence of an expected cash payout. To this end, we implemented images of U.S. dollar bills as reward feedback. Participants knew in advance that they would not receive any money based on their performance. Our reward stimuli-$5 and $20 bill images-were thus dissociated from any practical utility. Strikingly, we observed a reliable attentional capture effect for the mere images of bills. Moreover, this finding generalized to Monopoly money. In two control experiments, we found no evidence in favor of nominal or symbolic monetary value. Hence, we claim that bill images are special monetary representations, such that there are strong associations between the defining visual features of bills and reward, probably due to a lifelong learning history. Together, we show that the motivation to earn cash plays a minor role when it comes to monetary rewards, while bill-defining visual features seem to be sufficient. These findings have the potential to influence human factor applications, such as gamification, and can be extended to novel value systems, such as the electronic cash Bitcoin being developed for use in mobile banking. Finally, our procedure represents a proof of concept on how images of money can be used to conserve expenditures in the experimental context.

  2. Efficient Monte Carlo Estimation of the Expected Value of Sample Information Using Moment Matching.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heath, Anna; Manolopoulou, Ioanna; Baio, Gianluca

    2018-02-01

    The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) is used to calculate the economic value of a new research strategy. Although this value would be important to both researchers and funders, there are very few practical applications of the EVSI. This is due to computational difficulties associated with calculating the EVSI in practical health economic models using nested simulations. We present an approximation method for the EVSI that is framed in a Bayesian setting and is based on estimating the distribution of the posterior mean of the incremental net benefit across all possible future samples, known as the distribution of the preposterior mean. Specifically, this distribution is estimated using moment matching coupled with simulations that are available for probabilistic sensitivity analysis, which is typically mandatory in health economic evaluations. This novel approximation method is applied to a health economic model that has previously been used to assess the performance of other EVSI estimators and accurately estimates the EVSI. The computational time for this method is competitive with other methods. We have developed a new calculation method for the EVSI which is computationally efficient and accurate. This novel method relies on some additional simulation so can be expensive in models with a large computational cost.

  3. Expectation values of local fields for a two-parameter family of integrable models and related perturbed conformal field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baseilhac, P.; Fateev, V.A.

    1998-01-01

    We calculate the vacuum expectation values of local fields for the two-parameter family of integrable field theories introduced and studied by Fateev (1996). Using this result we propose an explicit expression for the vacuum expectation values of local operators in parafermionic sine-Gordon models and in integrable perturbed SU(2) coset conformal field theories. (orig.)

  4. A Practical Measure of Student Motivation: Establishing Validity Evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost Scale in Middle School

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosovich, Jeff J.; Hulleman, Chris S.; Barron, Kenneth E.; Getty, Steve

    2015-01-01

    We present validity evidence for the Expectancy-Value-Cost (EVC) Scale of student motivation. Using a brief, 10-item scale, we measured middle school students' expectancy, value, and cost for their math and science classes in the Fall and Winter of the same academic year. Confirmatory factor analyses supported the three-factor structure of the EVC…

  5. Variations on an Expectancy-Value Model of Motivation in Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeBacker; Nelson

    1999-04-01

    Relationships among motivational variables from goal theory and expectancy-value theory were investigated in this correlational study of high school students. Self-report surveys of motivation in science were collected during biology classes from 69 males and 80 females. Outcome measures were effort, persistence, and achievement. Gender differences were noted in the pattern of zero-order correlations. Internal motivation variables were related to achievement in males but not females. Regression analyses indicated that the motivation variables explained large proportions of variance in the outcomes. However, the contribution of individual variables differed by gender. Most notable was perceived ability, which contributed significantly to predicting outcome measures for females but not males. Findings suggest that interventions may need to focus on different motivational aspects depending on gender. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

  6. Disrupted expected value signaling in youth with disruptive behavior disorders to environmental reinforcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Stuart F; Fowler, Katherine A; Sinclair, Stephen; Schechter, Julia C; Majestic, Catherine M; Pine, Daniel S; Blair, R James

    2014-05-01

    Youth with disruptive behavior disorders (DBD), including conduct disorder (CD) and oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), have difficulties in reinforcement-based decision making, the neural basis of which is poorly understood. Studies examining decision making in youth with DBD have revealed reduced reward responses within the ventromedial prefrontal cortex/orbitofrontal cortex (vmPFC/OFC), increased responses to unexpected punishment within the vmPFC and striatum, and reduced use of expected value information in the anterior insula cortex and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex during the avoidance of suboptimal choices. Previous work has used only monetary reinforcement. The current study examined whether dysfunction in youth with DBD during decision making extended to environmental reinforcers. A total of 30 youth (15 healthy youth and 15 youth with DBD) completed a novel reinforcement-learning paradigm using environmental reinforcers (physical threat images, e.g., striking snake image; contamination threat images, e.g., rotting food; appetitive images, e.g., puppies) while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Behaviorally, healthy youth were significantly more likely to avoid physical threat, but not contamination threat, stimuli than youth with DBD. Imaging results revealed that youth with DBD showed significantly reduced use of expected value information in the bilateral caudate, thalamus, and posterior cingulate cortex during the avoidance of suboptimal responses. The current data suggest that youth with DBD show deficits to environmental reinforcers similar to the deficits seen to monetary reinforcers. Importantly, this deficit was unrelated to callous-unemotional (CU) traits, suggesting that caudate impairment may be a common deficit across youth with DBD. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  7. Assessment of expected breeding values for fertility traits of Murrah buffaloes under subtropical climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soumya Dash

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Aim: The aim of the present study was to assess the influence of temperature and humidity prevalent under subtropical climate on the breeding values for fertility traits viz. service period (SP, pregnancy rate (PR and conception rate (CR of Murrah buffaloes in National Dairy Research Institute (NDRI herd. Materials and Methods: Fertility data on 1379 records of 581 Murrah buffaloes spread over four lactations and climatic parameters viz. dry bulb temperature and relative humidity (RH spanned over 20 years (1993-2012 were collected from NDRI and Central Soil and Salinity Research Institute, Karnal, India. Monthly average temperature humidity index (THI values were estimated. Threshold THI value affecting fertility traits was identified by fixed least-squares model analysis. Three zones of non-heat stress, heat stress and critical heat stress zones were developed in a year. The genetic parameters heritablility (h2 and repeatability (r of each fertility trait were estimated. Genetic evaluation of Murrah buffaloes was performed in each zone with respect to their expected breeding values (EBV for fertility traits. Results: Effect of THI was found significant (p<0.001 on all fertility traits with threshold THI value identified as 75. Based on THI values, a year was classified into three zones: Non heat stress zone(THI 56.71-73.21, HSZ (THI 75.39-81.60 and critical HSZ (THI 80.27-81.60. The EBVfor SP, PR, CR were estimated as 138.57 days, 0.362 and 69.02% in non-HSZ while in HSZ EBV were found as 139.62 days, 0.358 and 68.81%, respectively. EBV for SP was increased to 140.92 days and for PR and CR, it was declined to 0.357 and 68.71% in critical HSZ. Conclusion: The negative effect of THI was observed on EBV of fertility traits under the non-HSZ and critical HSZ Thus, the influence of THI should be adjusted before estimating the breeding values for fertility traits in Murrah buffaloes.

  8. From free energy to expected energy: Improving energy-based value function approximation in reinforcement learning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elfwing, Stefan; Uchibe, Eiji; Doya, Kenji

    2016-12-01

    Free-energy based reinforcement learning (FERL) was proposed for learning in high-dimensional state and action spaces. However, the FERL method does only really work well with binary, or close to binary, state input, where the number of active states is fewer than the number of non-active states. In the FERL method, the value function is approximated by the negative free energy of a restricted Boltzmann machine (RBM). In our earlier study, we demonstrated that the performance and the robustness of the FERL method can be improved by scaling the free energy by a constant that is related to the size of network. In this study, we propose that RBM function approximation can be further improved by approximating the value function by the negative expected energy (EERL), instead of the negative free energy, as well as being able to handle continuous state input. We validate our proposed method by demonstrating that EERL: (1) outperforms FERL, as well as standard neural network and linear function approximation, for three versions of a gridworld task with high-dimensional image state input; (2) achieves new state-of-the-art results in stochastic SZ-Tetris in both model-free and model-based learning settings; and (3) significantly outperforms FERL and standard neural network function approximation for a robot navigation task with raw and noisy RGB images as state input and a large number of actions. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Hypothetical decision making in schizophrenia: The role of expected value computation and “irrational” biases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jaime K.; Waltz, James A.; Strauss, Gregory P.; McMahon, Robert P.; Frank, Michael J.; Gold, James M.

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to examine the contributions to decision making (DM) deficits in schizophrenia (SZ) patients, of expected value (EV) estimation and loss aversion. Patients diagnosed with SZ (n=46) and healthy controls (n=34) completed two gambling tasks. In one task, participants chose between two options with the same EV across two conditions: Loss frames and Keep frames. A second task involved accepting or rejecting gambles, in which gain and loss amounts varied, determining the EV of each trial. SZ patients showed a reduced “framing effect” relative to controls, as they did not show an increased tendency to gamble when faced with a certain loss. SZ patients also showed a reduced tendency to modify behavior as a function of EV. The degree to which choices tracked EV correlated significantly with several cognitive measures in both patients and controls. SZ patients show distinct deviations from normal behavior under risk when their decisions are based on prospective outcomes. These deviations are two-fold: cognitive deficits prevent value-based DM in more-impaired patients, and in less-impaired patients there is a lack of influence from well-established subjective biases found in healthy people. These abnormalities likely affect every-day DM strategies in schizophrenia patients. PMID:23664664

  10. Hypothetical decision making in schizophrenia: the role of expected value computation and "irrational" biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Jaime K; Waltz, James A; Strauss, Gregory P; McMahon, Robert P; Frank, Michael J; Gold, James M

    2013-09-30

    The aim of the present study was to examine the contributions to decision making (DM) deficits in schizophrenia (SZ) patients of expected value (EV) estimation and loss aversion. Patients diagnosed with SZ (n=46) and healthy controls (n=34) completed two gambling tasks. In one task, participants chose between two options with the same EV across two conditions: Loss frames and Keep frames. A second task involved accepting or rejecting gambles, in which gain and loss amounts varied, determining the EV of each trial. SZ patients showed a reduced "framing effect" relative to controls, as they did not show an increased tendency to gamble when faced with a certain loss. SZ patients also showed a reduced tendency to modify behavior as a function of EV. The degree to which choices tracked EV correlated significantly with several cognitive measures in both patients and controls. SZ patients show distinct deviations from normal behavior under risk when their decisions are based on prospective outcomes. These deviations are two-fold: cognitive deficits prevent value-based DM in more-impaired patients, and in less-impaired patients there is a lack of influence from well-established subjective biases found in healthy people. These abnormalities likely affect everyday DM strategies in schizophrenia patients. © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A Review of Methods for Analysis of the Expected Value of Information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heath, Anna; Manolopoulou, Ioanna; Baio, Gianluca

    2017-10-01

    In recent years, value-of-information analysis has become more widespread in health economic evaluations, specifically as a tool to guide further research and perform probabilistic sensitivity analysis. This is partly due to methodological advancements allowing for the fast computation of a typical summary known as the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI). A recent review discussed some approximation methods for calculating the EVPPI, but as the research has been active over the intervening years, that review does not discuss some key estimation methods. Therefore, this paper presents a comprehensive review of these new methods. We begin by providing the technical details of these computation methods. We then present two case studies in order to compare the estimation performance of these new methods. We conclude that a method based on nonparametric regression offers the best method for calculating the EVPPI in terms of accuracy, computational time, and ease of implementation. This means that the EVPPI can now be used practically in health economic evaluations, especially as all the methods are developed in parallel with R functions and a web app to aid practitioners.

  12. Vacuum expectation values of high-dimensional operators and their contributions to the Bjorken and Ellis-Jaffe sum rules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oganesian, A.G.

    1998-01-01

    A method is proposed for estimating unknown vacuum expectation values of high-dimensional operators. The method is based on the idea that the factorization hypothesis is self-consistent. Results are obtained for all vacuum expectation values of dimension-7 operators, and some estimates for dimension-10 operators are presented as well. The resulting values are used to compute corrections of higher dimensions to the Bjorken and Ellis-Jaffe sum rules

  13. Standard values and relationship-specific validity of the Bielefeld Relationship Expectations Questionnaire (BFPE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    Background The Bielefeld Partnership Expectations Questionnaire (BFPE) is a tool to assess attachment in the romantic relationships of adults. The attachment styles are operationalized as configuration patterns of scale scores. While convergent validity has already been investigated, discriminant validity is still lacking confirmation. Methods The present sample (n = 1509) is representative for the German population aged 18 to 50. The mean age was 34.6 years. Most of the participants lived in a relationship (77.3 %). Discriminant validity was analyzed using a marital quality questionnaire (PFB), a social support questionnaire (F-Soz-U K-14), and a life satisfaction questionnaire (FLZ). Results All the BFPE scales have a satisfying internal consistency between r = .79 and .86. Those individuals who showed a secure pattern, i.e. increased "Readiness for Self-Disclosure" and "Conscious Need for Care" as well as reduced "Fear of Rejection" experienced their partner as socially supportive, reported higher marital quality in all of its facets, and were more satisfied within the life-domains "family/children" and "relationship/sexuality". Standard values for each scale are presented. Conclusions The BFPE has repeatedly been verified as a short, reliable, and valid instrument applicable to research practice with healthy individuals as well as within clinical contexts. PMID:20942905

  14. Some relations between asymptotic results for dead-time-distorted processes. Part I. The expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, J.W.

    1975-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is twofold. On the one hand, it should provide us with a deeper insight into the mechanism of these processes. On the other hand, we shall arrive at some new forms of asymptotic results not commonly known, in particular those pertaining to an extended dead time. In addition, the novel approach permits independent checking of earlier results (some of which had been at variance with previous claims). In view of the usually quite cumbersome arithmetic involved, such controls are certainly most welcome. In this first part all the relations concerning the asymptotic expectation values will be discussed; the second part will do the same for the variances. A more elegant treatment of these problems, based on some general asymptotic results for renewal processes of the type first derived by Smith must be postponed for the moment since the corresponding formulae for a modified process are not yet readily available. We hope to be able to fill this gap in a near future

  15. Problems for superstring models with vacuum expectation values for conjugate sneutrinos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, B.; Ellis, J.; Gaillard, M.K.; Nanopoulos, D.V.; Olive, K.A.

    1986-01-01

    Superstring models compactified on Calabi-Yau manifolds contain two new neutral scalars in each 27 generation of chiral supermultiplets. We consider implications of a vacuum expectation value for one of the neutral scalars, the conjugates neutrino ν tilde L c : L c vertical stroke0>=y. Apart from a coupling which generates a Dirac neutrino mass and which must be small [ -9 )], its only superpotential interaction is with D L d L , so there wold be D-d mixing if y≠0. The fact that m d is not much less than m e or m u then tells us that y ν , arises if y≠0, and the D-d mixing would then induce the decay K→π+a ν at an unacceptable rate. Regardless of the gauge group rank, we show that the combined constraints on D-d mixing, and on the flavour-changing neutral currents it would induce, are sufficient to rule out D L d L c ν L c superpotential coupling large enough to produce L c vertical stroke0>≠0. These problems are avoided in models with a rank-5 gauge group and L c vertical stroke0>< or approx.40 KeV. (orig.)

  16. Comparing solutions to the expectancy-value muddle in the theory of planned behaviour.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O' Sullivan, B; McGee, H; Keegan, O

    2008-11-01

    The authors of the Theories of Reasoned Action (TRA) and Planned Behaviour (TPB) recommended a method for statistically analysing the relationship between the indirect belief-based measures and the direct measures of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioural control (PBC). However, there is a growing awareness that this yields statistically uninterpretable results. This study's objective was to compare two solutions to what has been called the 'expectancy-value muddle'. These solutions were (i) optimal scoring of modal beliefs and (ii) individual beliefs without multiplicative composites. Cross-sectional data were collected by telephone interview. Participants were 110 first-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer (CRC), who were offered CRC screening in the study hospital (83% response rate). Participants were asked to rate the TPB constructs in relation to attending for CRC screening. There was no significant difference in the correlation between behavioural beliefs and attitude for rescaled modal and individual beliefs. This was also the case for control beliefs and PBC. By contrast, there was a large correlation between rescaled modal normative beliefs and subjective norm, whereas individual normative beliefs did not correlate with subjective norm. Using individual beliefs without multiplicative composites allows for a fairly unproblematic interpretation of the relationship between the indirect and direct TPB constructs (French & Hankins, 2003). Therefore, it is recommended that future studies consider using individual measures of behavioural and control beliefs without multiplicative composites and examine a different way of measuring individual normative beliefs without multiplicative composites to that used in this study.

  17. Theory-driven intervention for changing personality: expectancy value theory, behavioral activation, and conscientiousness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magidson, Jessica F; Roberts, Brent W; Collado-Rodriguez, Anahi; Lejuez, C W

    2014-05-01

    Considerable evidence suggests that personality traits may be changeable, raising the possibility that personality traits most linked to health problems can be modified with intervention. A growing body of research suggests that problematic personality traits may be altered with behavioral intervention using a bottom-up approach. That is, by targeting core behaviors that underlie personality traits with the goal of engendering new, healthier patterns of behavior that, over time, become automatized and manifest in changes in personality traits. Nevertheless, a bottom-up model for changing personality traits is somewhat diffuse and requires clearer integration of theory and relevant interventions to enable real clinical application. As such, this article proposes a set of guiding principles for theory-driven modification of targeted personality traits using a bottom-up approach, focusing specifically on targeting the trait of conscientiousness using a relevant behavioral intervention, Behavioral Activation (BA), considered within the motivational framework of expectancy value theory (EVT). We conclude with a real case example of the application of BA to alter behaviors counter to conscientiousness in a substance-dependent patient, highlighting the EVT principles most relevant to the approach and the importance and viability of a theoretically driven, bottom-up approach to changing personality traits. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Modeling the Test-Taking Motivation Construct through Investigation of Psychometric Properties of an Expectancy-Value-Based Questionnaire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knekta, Eva; Eklöf, Hanna

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of an expectancy-value-based questionnaire measuring five aspects of test-taking motivation (effort, expectancies, importance, interest, and test anxiety). The questionnaire was distributed to a sample of Swedish Grade 9 students taking a low-stakes (n = 1,047) or a high-stakes (n =…

  19. Expectation values of local fields in the Bullough-Dodd model and integrable perturbed conformal field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fateev, V.; Lukyanov, S.; Zamolodchikov, A.; Zamolodchikov, A.

    1998-01-01

    Exact expectation values of the fields e aφ in the Bullough-Dodd model are derived by adopting the ''''reflection relations'''' which involve the reflection S-matrix of the Liouville theory, as well as a special analyticity assumption. Using this result we propose explicit expressions for expectation values of all primary operators in the c 1,2 or Φ 2,1 . Some results concerning the Φ 1,5 perturbed minimal models are also presented. (orig.)

  20. Expectation values of descendent fields in the Bullough-Dodd model and related perturbed conformal field theories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baseilhac, P.; Stanishkov, M.

    2001-01-01

    The exact vacuum expectation values of the second level descendent fields 2 (∂-barφ 2 e aφ in the Bullough-Dodd model are calculated. By performing quantum group restrictions, we obtain -2 L-bar -2 PHI lk > in the PHI 12 , PHI 21 and PHI 15 perturbed minimal CFTs. In particular, the exact expectation value is found to be proportional to the square of the bulk free energy

  1. Higher than expected NOx emission from trucks may affect attainability of NO2 limit values in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velders, G.J.M.; Geilenkirchen, G.P.; Lange, R. de

    2011-01-01

    In past years, the European limit value for average annual NO2 concentration has been exceeded in city streets and along motorways in the Netherlands. By 2015 the limit value must be adhered to in the Netherlands. Although the total road length for which exceedance is likely is expected to decrease

  2. Aspirations and Expectations of West Malaysian Youth: Two Models of Social Class Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takei, Yoshimitsu; And Others

    1973-01-01

    While the occupational aspirations of Malay and Chinese male students in the secondary schools reveal fairly similar configurations, the socio-economic expectations of Malays are higher and largely independent of social class origins. (Authors)

  3. Using Expectancy Value Theory as a Framework to Reduce Student Resistance to Active Learning: A Proof of Concept.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooper, Katelyn M; Ashley, Michael; Brownell, Sara E

    2017-01-01

    There has been a national movement to transition college science courses from passive lectures to active learning environments. Active learning has been shown to be a more effective way for students to learn, yet there is concern that some students are resistant to active learning approaches. Although there is much discussion about student resistance to active learning, few studies have explored this topic. Furthermore, a limited number of studies have applied theoretical frameworks to student engagement in active learning. We propose using a theoretical lens of expectancy value theory to understand student resistance to active learning. In this study, we examined student perceptions of active learning after participating in 40 hours of active learning. We used the principal components of expectancy value theory to probe student experience in active learning: student perceived self-efficacy in active learning, value of active learning, and potential cost of participating in active learning. We found that students showed positive changes in the components of expectancy value theory and reported high levels of engagement in active learning, which provide proof of concept that expectancy value theory can be used to boost student perceptions of active learning and their engagement in active learning classrooms. From these findings, we have built a theoretical framework of expectancy value theory applied to active learning.

  4. What Chinese Workers Value: An Analysis of Job Satisfaction, Job Expectations, and Labor Turnover in China

    OpenAIRE

    Nie, Peng; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

    2017-01-01

    This study uses data from the 2012 China Labor Force Dynamics Survey and 2010–2012 China Family Panel Studies to investigate job satisfaction and job expectations, as well as the association between job satisfaction and job turnover by gender among employees aged 16–65. We find not only that job satisfaction levels are relatively low, with only 46% of workers explicitly satisfied, but also that worker expectations differ significantly from what their jobs actually provide. In particular, many...

  5. Assessing fitness for use: the expected value of spatial data sets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de S.; Bregt, A.K.; Ven, van de M.

    2001-01-01

    This paper proposes and illustrates a decision analytical approach to compare the value of alternative spatial data sets. In contrast to other work addressing value of information, its focus is on value of control. This is a useful concept when choosing the best data set for decision making under

  6. On the area expectation values in area tensor Regge calculus in the Lorentzian domain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khatsymovsky, V.M.

    2006-01-01

    Wick rotation in area tensor Regge calculus is considered. The heuristical expectation is confirmed that the Lorentzian quantum measure on a spacelike area should coincide with the Euclidean measure at the same argument. The consequence is validity of probabilistic interpretation of the Lorentzian measure as well (on the real, i.e. spacelike areas)

  7. Impact of Expectancy-Value and Situational Interest Motivation Specificity on Physical Education Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Haiyong; Sun, Haichun; Chen, Ang

    2013-01-01

    To be successful in learning, students need to be motivated to engage and learn. The domain-specificity motivation theory articulates that student motivation is often determined by the content being taught to them. The purpose of this study was to extend the theory by determining domain-specificity of situational interest and expectancy-value…

  8. Expected value analysis for integrated supplier selection and inventory control of multi-product inventory system with fuzzy cost

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno, Widowati, Tjahjana, R. Heru

    2017-12-01

    The future cost in many industrial problem is obviously uncertain. Then a mathematical analysis for a problem with uncertain cost is needed. In this article, we deals with the fuzzy expected value analysis to solve an integrated supplier selection and supplier selection problem with uncertain cost where the costs uncertainty is approached by a fuzzy variable. We formulate the mathematical model of the problems fuzzy expected value based quadratic optimization with total cost objective function and solve it by using expected value based fuzzy programming. From the numerical examples result performed by the authors, the supplier selection problem was solved i.e. the optimal supplier was selected for each time period where the optimal product volume of all product that should be purchased from each supplier for each time period was determined and the product stock level was controlled as decided by the authors i.e. it was followed the given reference level.

  9. General decoupling procedure for expectation values of four-operator products in electron–phonon quantum kinetics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Teeny, Nicolas; Fähnle, Manfred

    2013-01-01

    In the density-matrix formalism of electron–phonon quantum kinetics, the hierarchy of infinitely many coupled equations of motion for the expectation values of products of electron and phonon creation and annihilation operators of arbitrary order is usually terminated on the level of the equations of motion for the expectation values of three-operator products by using decoupling procedures for the four-operator products occurring in these equations. In the literature, decoupling procedures are discussed for special types of electron and phonon states. In the present paper, generalized decoupling procedures are derived for arbitrary electron and phonon states. (paper)

  10. Cosmological evolution of the Higgs boson's vacuum expectation value

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Calmet, Xavier [University of Sussex, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Brighton (United Kingdom)

    2017-11-15

    We point out that the expansion of the universe leads to a cosmological time evolution of the vacuum expectation of the Higgs boson. Within the standard model of particle physics, the cosmological time evolution of the vacuum expectation of the Higgs leads to a cosmological time evolution of the masses of the fermions and of the electroweak gauge bosons, while the scale of Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) remains constant. Precise measurements of the cosmological time evolution of μ = m{sub e}/m{sub p}, where m{sub e} and m{sub p} are, respectively, the electron and proton mass (which is essentially determined by the QCD scale), therefore provide a test of the standard models of particle physics and of cosmology. This ratio can be measured using modern atomic clocks. (orig.)

  11. Promoting Physical Activity in Hong Kong Chinese Young People: Factors Influencing Their Subjective Task Values and Expectancy Beliefs in Physical Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pang, Bonnie

    2014-01-01

    According to Eccles et al.'s (1983) Expectancy Value Model, the two major constructs that influence young people's activity choice are subjective task value and expectancy beliefs (Eccles et al., 1983). Eccles et al. (1983) conceptually distinguished four dimensions of subjective task value: attainment value, intrinsic value, utility value and…

  12. A Multivariate Analysis of Personality, Values and Expectations as Correlates of Career Aspirations of Final Year Medical Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Mary E.; Searle, Judy; Creed, Peter A.; Ng, Shu-Kay

    2010-01-01

    This study reports on the career intentions of 179 final year medical students who completed an online survey that included measures of personality, values, professional and lifestyle expectations, and well-being. Logistic regression analyses identified the determinants of preferred medical specialty, practice location and hours of work.…

  13. Influence of Significant Others on High School Students' Expectancies of Success and Task Value in Physical Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Skip M.; Weiss, Windee

    2018-01-01

    This study examined the perceived influence of significant others' beliefs on students' expectancies of success and task value in physical education (PE). PE students (N = 231) between Grades 9 and 12 participated. Multiple regressions examined the influence of perceived parents', teachers', and classmates' beliefs on students' ability…

  14. Vacuum expectation value of the stress tensor in an arbitrary curved background: The covariant point-separation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, S.M.

    1976-01-01

    A method known as covariant geodesic point separation is developed to calculate the vacuum expectation value of the stress tensor for a massive scalar field in an arbitrary gravitational field. The vacuum expectation value will diverge because the stress-tensor operator is constructed from products of field operators evaluated at the same space-time point. To remedy this problem, one of the field operators is taken to a nearby point. The resultant vacuum expectation value is finite and may be expressed in terms of the Hadamard elementary function. This function is calculated using a curved-space generalization of Schwinger's proper-time method for calculating the Feynman Green's function. The expression for the Hadamard function is written in terms of the biscalar of geodetic interval which gives a measure of the square of the geodesic distance between the separated points. Next, using a covariant expansion in terms of the tangent to the geodesic, the stress tensor may be expanded in powers of the length of the geodesic. Covariant expressions for each divergent term and for certain terms in the finite portion of the vacuum expectation value of the stress tensor are found. The properties, uses, and limitations of the results are discussed

  15. Using Expectancy-Value Theory to Explore Aspects of Motivation and Engagement in Inquiry-Based Learning in Primary Mathematics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding-Wells, Jill; O'Brien, Mia; Makar, Katie

    2017-01-01

    Inquiry-based learning (IBL) is a pedagogical approach in which students address complex, ill-structured problems set in authentic contexts. While IBL is gaining ground in Australia as an instructional practice, there has been little research that considers implications for student motivation and engagement. Expectancy-value theory (Eccles and…

  16. Understanding Female Sport Attrition in a Stereotypical Male Sport within the Framework of Eccles's Expectancy-Value Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillet, Emma; Sarrazin, Philippe; Fontayne, Paul; Brustad, Robert J.

    2006-01-01

    An empirical research study based upon the expectancy-value model of Eccles and colleagues (1983) investigated the effect of gender-role orientations on psychological dimensions of female athletes' sport participation and the likelihood of their continued participation in a stereotypical masculine activity. The model (Eccles et al., 1983) posits…

  17. Charting the Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model from Mothers' Beliefs in Childhood to Youths' Activities in Adolescence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, Sandra D.; Fredricks, Jennifer A.; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.

    2012-01-01

    The Eccles' expectancy-value model posits that a cascade of mechanisms explain associations between parents' beliefs and youths' achievement-related behaviors. Specifically, parents' beliefs predict parents' behaviors; in turn, parents' behaviors predict youths' motivational beliefs, and youths' motivational beliefs predict their behaviors. This…

  18. Using the Expectancy Value Model of Motivation to Understand the Relationship between Student Attitudes and Achievement in Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.; Neumann, David L.

    2012-01-01

    We tested a model of the relationship between attitudes toward statistics and achievement based on Eccles' Expectancy Value Model (1983). Participants (n = 149; 83% female) were second-year Australian university students in a psychology statistics course (mean age = 23.36 years, SD = 7.94 years). We obtained demographic details, past performance,…

  19. Identifying Students' Expectancy-Value Beliefs: A Latent Class Analysis Approach to Analyzing Middle School Students' Science Self-Perceptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phelan, Julia; Ing, Marsha; Nylund-Gibson, Karen; Brown, Richard S.

    2017-01-01

    This study extends current research by organizing information about students' expectancy-value achievement motivation, in a way that helps parents and teachers identify specific entry points to encourage and support students' science aspirations. This study uses latent class analysis to describe underlying differences in ability beliefs, task…

  20. On the interpretation of World Values Survey trust question - global expectations vs. local beliefs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Banerjee, Ritwik

    How should we interpret the World Values Survey (WVS) trust question? We conduct an experiment in India - a low trust country, to correlate the WVS trust question with trust decisions in an incentivized Trust Game. Evidence supports findings from one strand of the fractured literature - the WVS t...

  1. Use of decision criteria based on expected values to support decision-making in a production assurance and safety setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aven, T.; Flage, R.

    2009-01-01

    We consider decision problems related to production assurance and safety. The issue is to what extent we should use decision criteria based on expected values, such as the expected net present value (E[NPV]) and the expected cost per expected number of saved lives (ICAF), to guide the decision. Such criteria are recognised as practical tools for supporting decision-making under uncertainty, but is uncertainty adequately taken into account by these criteria? Based on the prevailing practice and the existing literature, we conclude that there is a need for a clarification of the rationale of these criteria. Adjustments of the standard approaches have been suggested to reflect risks and uncertainties, but can cautionary and precautionary concerns be replaced by formulae and mechanical procedures? These issues are discussed in the present paper, particularly addressing the company level. We argue that the search for such formulae and procedures should be replaced by a more balanced perspective acknowledging that there will always be a need for management review and judgment beyond the realm of the analyses. Most of the suggested adjustments of the E[NPV] and ICAF approaches should be avoided. They add more confusion than value.

  2. What Can We Expect from Value-Based Funding of Medicines? A Retrospective Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Anthony; Li, Jing Jing; Yong, Karen

    2016-04-01

    Deciding on public funding for pharmaceuticals on the basis of value for money is now widespread. We suggest that evidence-based assessment of value has restricted the availability of medicines in Australia in a way that reflects the relative bargaining power of government and the pharmaceutical industry. We propose a simple informal game-theoretic model of bargaining between the funding agency and industry and test its predictions using a logistic multiple regression model of past funding decisions made by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee in Australia. The model estimates the probability of a drug being recommended for subsidy as a function of incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), as well as other drug and market characteristics. Data are major submissions or resubmissions from 1993 to 2009 where there was a claim of superiority and evidence of a difference in quality of life. Independent variables measure the incremental cost per QALY, the cost to the public budget, the strength and quality of the clinical and economic evidence, need as measured by severity of illness and the availability of alternative treatments, whether or not a resubmission, and newspaper reports as a measure of public pressure. We report the odds ratio for each variable and calculate the ratio of the marginal effect of each variable to the marginal effect of the cost per QALY as a measure of the revealed willingness to pay for each of the variables that influence the decision. The results are consistent with a bargaining model where a 10,000 Australian dollar ($A) fall in value (increase in cost per QALY) reduces the average probability of public funding from 37 to 33% (95% CI 34-32). If the condition is life threatening or the drug has no active comparator, then the odds of a positive recommendation are 3.18 (95% CI 1.00-10.11) and 2.14 (95% CI 0.95-4.83) greater, equivalent to a $A33,000 and a $A21,000 increase in value (fall in cost per QALY). If both

  3. Free energy and plaquette expectation value for gluons on the lattice, in three dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panagopoulos, H.; Skouroupathis, A.; Tsapalis, A.

    2006-01-01

    We calculate the perturbative value of the free energy in lattice QCD in three dimensions, up to three loops. Our calculation is performed using the Wilson formulation for gluons in SU(N) gauge theories. The free energy is directly related to the average plaquette. To carry out the calculation, we compute the coefficients involved in the perturbative expansion of the Free Energy up to three loops, using an automated set of procedures developed by us in Mathematica. The dependence on N is shown explicitly in our results. For purposes of comparison, we also present the individual contributions from every diagram. These have been obtained by means of two independent calculations, in order to cross check our results

  4. Economic values and expected effect of selection index for pathogen-specific mastitis under Danish conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Lars Peter; Mark, Thomas; Sørensen, M.K.

    2010-01-01

    The objectives of this study were 1) to estimate costs related to 5 different pathogen-specific mastitis traits (susceptibility to different pathogens causing mastitis in dairy cattle) and unspecific mastitis, and 2) to compare selection differentials for an udder health index consisting of 5...... different pathogen-specific mastitis traits and lactation average somatic cell count from 5 to 170 d after first calving (LASCC170) with another index consisting of 1 unspecific mastitis trait and LASCC170. Economic values were estimated for mastitis caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus...... dysgalactiae, Escherichia coli, coagulase-negative staphylococci, and Streptococcus uberis using a stochastic simulation model (SimHerd IV). Mastitis incidences for SimHerd IV were from incidences of mastitis treatments in primiparous Danish Holstein cows calving in 2007. Estimated costs ranged from 149 euro...

  5. The Expected Net Present Value of Developing Weight Management Drugs in the Context of Drug Safety Litigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Anita; Carls, Ginger; Deng, Edmund; Tuttle, Edward

    2015-07-01

    Following withdrawals, failures, and significant litigation settlements, drug product launches in the anti-obesity category slowed despite a large and growing unmet need. Litigation concerns, a more risk-averse regulatory policy, and the difficulty of developing a product with a compelling risk-benefit profile in this category may have limited innovators' expected return on investment and restricted investment in this therapeutic area. The objective of the study was to estimate perceived manufacturer risk associated with product safety litigation and increased development costs vs. revenue expectations on anticipated return on investment and to determine which scenarios might change a manufacturer's investment decision. Expected net present value of a weight-management drug entering pre-clinical trials was calculated for a range of scenarios representing evolving expectations of development costs, revenue, and litigation risk over the past 25 years. These three factors were based on published estimates, historical data, and analogs from other therapeutic areas. The main driver in expected net present value calculations is expected revenue, particularly if one assumes that litigation risk and demand are positively correlated. Changes in development costs associated with increased regulatory concern with potential safety issues for the past 25 years likely did not impact investment decisions. Regulatory policy and litigation risk both played a role in anti-obesity drug development; however, product revenue-reflecting efficacy at acceptable levels of safety-was by far the most important factor. To date, relatively modest sales associated with recent product introductions suggest that developing a product that is sufficiently efficacious with an acceptable level of safety continues to be the primary challenge in this market.

  6. The decision to engage cognitive control is driven by expected reward-value: neural and behavioral evidence.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew L Dixon

    Full Text Available Cognitive control is a fundamental skill reflecting the active use of task-rules to guide behavior and suppress inappropriate automatic responses. Prior work has traditionally used paradigms in which subjects are told when to engage cognitive control. Thus, surprisingly little is known about the factors that influence individuals' initial decision of whether or not to act in a reflective, rule-based manner. To examine this, we took three classic cognitive control tasks (Stroop, Wisconsin Card Sorting Task, Go/No-Go task and created novel 'free-choice' versions in which human subjects were free to select an automatic, pre-potent action, or an action requiring rule-based cognitive control, and earned varying amounts of money based on their choices. Our findings demonstrated that subjects' decision to engage cognitive control was driven by an explicit representation of monetary rewards expected to be obtained from rule-use. Subjects rarely engaged cognitive control when the expected outcome was of equal or lesser value as compared to the value of the automatic response, but frequently engaged cognitive control when it was expected to yield a larger monetary outcome. Additionally, we exploited fMRI-adaptation to show that the lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC represents associations between rules and expected reward outcomes. Together, these findings suggest that individuals are more likely to act in a reflective, rule-based manner when they expect that it will result in a desired outcome. Thus, choosing to exert cognitive control is not simply a matter of reason and willpower, but rather, conforms to standard mechanisms of value-based decision making. Finally, in contrast to current models of LPFC function, our results suggest that the LPFC plays a direct role in representing motivational incentives.

  7. Higgs particle production at LEP in multi-doublet scenarios with hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalinowski, J.; Pokorski, S.

    1989-01-01

    We discuss the production at LEP of Higgs particles in multi-doublet scenarios with a hierarchy of the vacuum expectation values ν 2 /ν 1 ≅m t /m b . The cross sections are similar or larger than for the standard Higgs boson of the same mass but the signature is different. Events with four b-jets are the only important signature of such Higgs particles. (orig.)

  8. Perturbation theory in angular quantization approach and the expectation values of exponential fields in sine-Gordon model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Poghossian, R.H.

    2000-01-01

    In an angular quantization approach a perturbation theory for the Massive Thirring Model (MTM) is developed, which allows us to calculate vacuum expectation values of exponential fields in sine-Gordon theory near the free fermion point in first order of the MTM coupling constant g. The Hankel transforms play an important role when carrying out these calculations. The expression we have found coincides with that of the direct expansion over g of the exact formula conjectured by Lukyanov and Zamolodchikov

  9. Tinto's Theoretical Perspective and Expectancy-Value Paradigm: A confrontation to explain freshmen's academic achievement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandrine Neuville

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available For decades, success in postsecondary education has preoccupied psychological and educational researchers. In this respect, Tinto's student integration model (1982, 1997 is one of the most frequently cited models. Tinto proposed that students' background characteristics, initial intentions and aspirations towards college influence their academic and social integration, which in turn affect their persistence. Unfortunately, although this model is an integrative one, it does not take motivational variables such as students' self-efficacy (Bandura, 1997; Bong & Skaalvik, 2003 and students' subjective value of academic tasks (Eccles & Wigfield, 2002; Neuville, 2004 into account although their impact on learning has been widely demonstrated (Robbins, Lauver, Le, Davis, & Langley, 2004. The purpose of this study, conducted with 2637 first-year university students from all the Bachelor's degree programs of a Belgian university, is to compare, through structural equation models, the explanatory power of these two research traditions (students' integration, on the one hand, and a motivational paradigm, on the other hand in predicting students' academic performance.

  10. Motivational processes from expectancy-value theory are associated with variability in the error positivity in young children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Matthew H; Marulis, Loren M; Grammer, Jennie K; Morrison, Frederick J; Gehring, William J

    2017-03-01

    Motivational beliefs and values influence how children approach challenging activities. The current study explored motivational processes from an expectancy-value theory framework by studying children's mistakes and their responses to them by focusing on two event-related potential (ERP) components: the error-related negativity (ERN) and the error positivity (Pe). Motivation was assessed using a child-friendly challenge puzzle task and a brief interview measure prior to ERP testing. Data from 50 4- to 6-year-old children revealed that greater perceived competence beliefs were related to a larger Pe, whereas stronger intrinsic task value beliefs were associated with a smaller Pe. Motivation was unrelated to the ERN. Individual differences in early motivational processes may reflect electrophysiological activity related to conscious error awareness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Learned helplessness or expectancy-value? A psychological model for describing the experiences of different categories of unemployed people.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Rodríguez, Y

    1997-06-01

    Various studies have explored the relationships between unemployment and expectation of success, commitment to work, motivation, causal attributions, self-esteem and depression. A model is proposed that assumes the relationships between these variables are moderated by (a) whether or not the unemployed individual is seeking a first job and (b) age. It is proposed that for the unemployed who are seeking their first job (seekers) the relationships among these variables will be consistent with expectancy-value theory, but for those who have had a previous job (losers), the relationships will be more consistent with learned helplessness theory. It is further assumed that within this latter group the young losers will experience "universal helplessness" whereas the adult losers will experience "personal helplessness".

  12. E-CAI: a novel server to estimate an expected value of Codon Adaptation Index (eCAI

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Garcia-Vallvé Santiago

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Codon Adaptation Index (CAI is a measure of the synonymous codon usage bias for a DNA or RNA sequence. It quantifies the similarity between the synonymous codon usage of a gene and the synonymous codon frequency of a reference set. Extreme values in the nucleotide or in the amino acid composition have a large impact on differential preference for synonymous codons. It is thence essential to define the limits for the expected value of CAI on the basis of sequence composition in order to properly interpret the CAI and provide statistical support to CAI analyses. Though several freely available programs calculate the CAI for a given DNA sequence, none of them corrects for compositional biases or provides confidence intervals for CAI values. Results The E-CAI server, available at http://genomes.urv.es/CAIcal/E-CAI, is a web-application that calculates an expected value of CAI for a set of query sequences by generating random sequences with G+C and amino acid content similar to those of the input. An executable file, a tutorial, a Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ section and several examples are also available. To exemplify the use of the E-CAI server, we have analysed the codon adaptation of human mitochondrial genes that codify a subunit of the mitochondrial respiratory chain (excluding those genes that lack a prokaryotic orthologue and are encoded in the nuclear genome. It is assumed that these genes were transferred from the proto-mitochondrial to the nuclear genome and that its codon usage was then ameliorated. Conclusion The E-CAI server provides a direct threshold value for discerning whether the differences in CAI are statistically significant or whether they are merely artifacts that arise from internal biases in the G+C composition and/or amino acid composition of the query sequences.

  13. Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: international evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Degiannakis, Stavros; Floros, Christos; Dent, P.

    2013-01-01

    The present study compares the performance of the long memory FIGARCH model, with that of the short memory GARCH specification, in the forecasting of multi-period Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) across 20 stock indices worldwide. The dataset is comprised of daily data covering the period from 1989 to 2009. The research addresses the question of whether or not accounting for long memory in the conditional variance specification improves the accuracy of the VaR and ES forecasts ...

  14. Contribution from the interaction Hamiltonian to the expectation value of particle number with the non-equilibrium quantum field theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hotta, Ryuuichi; Morozumi, Takuya; Takata, Hiroyuki

    2012-01-01

    We develop the method analyzing particle number non-conserving phenomena with non-equilibrium quantum field-theory. In this study, we consider a CP violating model with interaction Hamiltonian that breaks particle number conservation. To derive the quantum Boltzmann equation for the particle number, we solve Schwinger-Dyson equation, which are obtained from two particle irreducible closed-time-path (2PI CTP) effective action. In this calculation, we show the contribution from interaction Hamiltonian to the time evolution of expectation value of particle number.

  15. Expected value based fuzzy programming approach to solve integrated supplier selection and inventory control problem with fuzzy demand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutrisno; Widowati; Sunarsih; Kartono

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, a mathematical model in quadratic programming with fuzzy parameter is proposed to determine the optimal strategy for integrated inventory control and supplier selection problem with fuzzy demand. To solve the corresponding optimization problem, we use the expected value based fuzzy programming. Numerical examples are performed to evaluate the model. From the results, the optimal amount of each product that have to be purchased from each supplier for each time period and the optimal amount of each product that have to be stored in the inventory for each time period were determined with minimum total cost and the inventory level was sufficiently closed to the reference level.

  16. Longterm Performance Trends Analysis and ManagingExpectation for Active Value1 (Case Study: PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa, Tbk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Perdana Wahyu Santosa

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This research used financial ratio and managing expectations for active value about performance of PT IndocementTunggal Prakarsa, Tbk (INTP as one of largest cement company with a strong brand image at Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX. Unlike traditional corporate-performance metric, this study use growth value of matrix. INTP is well placed to meet Indonesia’s growing per capita of cement consumption. The financial data sources for this research are the audited annual reports of INTP2002-2008. The analysis focused on compounds annual growth rate (CAGR,  profitability, total assets turnover, cost of capital, market value added & market risk and market perception map. This research also used growth value matrix to analysis the market perception of INTP in 2008 that combined current performance with future growth opportunity. The result of market perception mapping for 2008-2009 shows that INTP was just on market average of current performance index but the future growth opportunity was above the market average level. The conclusion explains that INTP has very good long-term fundamental performance’s trend and the company is indicated has strong capabilityto be excellent value manager in the future.

  17. Expectation values of r sup q between Dirac and quasirelativistic wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Kwato-Njock, K

    2002-01-01

    A search is conducted for the determination of expectation values of r sup q between Dirac and quasirelativistic radial wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation. The phenomenological and supersymmetry-inspired quantum-defect models which have proven so far to yield accurate results are used. The recursive structure of formulae derived on the basis of the hypervirial theorem enables us to develop explicit relations for arbitrary values of q. Detailed numerical calculations concerning alkali-metal-like ions of the Li-, Na- and Cu-iso electronic sequences confirm the superiority of supersymmetry-based quantum-defect theory over quantum-defect orbital and exact orbital quantum number approximations. It is also shown that relativistic rather than quasirelativistic treatment may be used for consistent inclusion of relativistic effects.

  18. Expectation values of $r^{q}$ between Dirac and quasirelativistic wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation

    CERN Document Server

    Kwato-Njock, M G; Oumarou, B

    2002-01-01

    A search is conducted for the determination of expectation values of $r^q$ between Dirac and quasirelativistic radial wave functions in the quantum-defect approximation. The phenomenological and supersymmetry-inspired quantum-defect models which have proven so far to yield accurate results are used. The recursive structure of formulae derived on the basis of the hypervirial theorem enables us to develop explicit relations for arbitrary values of $q$. Detailed numerical calculations concerning alkali-metal-like ions of the Li-, Na- and Cu-iso electronic sequences confirm the superiority of supersymmetry-based quantum-defect theory over quantum-defect orbital and exact orbital quantum number approximations. It is also shown that relativistic rather than quasirelativistic treatment may be used for consistent inclusion of relativistic effects.

  19. Renormalization of the scalar field theory with spontaneously broken discrete symmetry without shifting the field vacuum expectation value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Solin, J.

    1988-01-01

    The one-loop renormalization of the λφ 4 theory with a spontaneous breaking of its discrete (reflection) symmetry is analyzed. It is explicitly shown that it is not necessary to forcefully eliminate the linear counterterm in the shifted field (accomplished usually by shifting the vacuum expectation value of the field) in order to have the renormalized Lagrangian still formally invariant under the original discrete symmetry. It is further shown, using the normal-ordering procedure, that the renormalization carried out in the customary form completely wipes out the tadpole diagram contributions from the original Lagrangian. As a consequence, the same renormalized Lagrangian can be also obtained from the original bare Lagrangian which, however, has been normal-ordered and as such cannot cause the linear counterterm in the shifted field since now the tadpole diagrams are absent altogether. These analyses should support the view that the vacuum expectation value of the field is of a group-theoretical origin rather than a field-theoretical origin, and as such should not change independently of the shifted field in the course of renormalization

  20. Model averaging in the presence of structural uncertainty about treatment effects: influence on treatment decision and expected value of information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Malcolm J; Welton, Nicky J; Briggs, Andrew H; Ades, A E

    2011-01-01

    Standard approaches to estimation of Markov models with data from randomized controlled trials tend either to make a judgment about which transition(s) treatments act on, or they assume that treatment has a separate effect on every transition. An alternative is to fit a series of models that assume that treatment acts on specific transitions. Investigators can then choose among alternative models using goodness-of-fit statistics. However, structural uncertainty about any chosen parameterization will remain and this may have implications for the resulting decision and the need for further research. We describe a Bayesian approach to model estimation, and model selection. Structural uncertainty about which parameterization to use is accounted for using model averaging and we developed a formula for calculating the expected value of perfect information (EVPI) in averaged models. Marginal posterior distributions are generated for each of the cost-effectiveness parameters using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation in WinBUGS, or Monte-Carlo simulation in Excel (Microsoft Corp., Redmond, WA). We illustrate the approach with an example of treatments for asthma using aggregate-level data from a connected network of four treatments compared in three pair-wise randomized controlled trials. The standard errors of incremental net benefit using structured models is reduced by up to eight- or ninefold compared to the unstructured models, and the expected loss attaching to decision uncertainty by factors of several hundreds. Model averaging had considerable influence on the EVPI. Alternative structural assumptions can alter the treatment decision and have an overwhelming effect on model uncertainty and expected value of information. Structural uncertainty can be accounted for by model averaging, and the EVPI can be calculated for averaged models. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights

  1. Who took the "x" out of expectancy-value theory? A psychological mystery, a substantive-methodological synergy, and a cross-national generalization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagengast, Benjamin; Marsh, Herbert W; Scalas, L Francesca; Xu, Man K; Hau, Kit-Tai; Trautwein, Ulrich

    2011-08-01

    Expectancy-value theory (EVT) is a dominant theory of human motivation. Historically, the Expectancy × Value interaction, in which motivation is high only if both expectancy and value are high, was central to EVT. However, the Expectancy × Value interaction mysteriously disappeared from published research more than 25 years ago. Using large representative samples of 15-year-olds (N = 398,750) from 57 diverse countries, we attempted to solve this mystery by testing Expectancy × Value interactions using latent-variable models with interactions. Expectancy (science self-concept), value (enjoyment of science), and the Expectancy × Value interaction all had statistically significant positive effects on both engagement in science activities and intentions of pursuing scientific careers; these results were similar for the total sample and for nearly all of the 57 countries considered separately. This study, apparently the strongest cross-national test of EVT ever undertaken, supports the generalizability of EVT predictions--including the "lost" Expectancy × Value interaction.

  2. On the expected value and variance for an estimator of the spatio-temporal product density function

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodríguez-Corté, Francisco J.; Ghorbani, Mohammad; Mateu, Jorge

    Second-order characteristics are used to analyse the spatio-temporal structure of the underlying point process, and thus these methods provide a natural starting point for the analysis of spatio-temporal point process data. We restrict our attention to the spatio-temporal product density function......, and develop a non-parametric edge-corrected kernel estimate of the product density under the second-order intensity-reweighted stationary hypothesis. The expectation and variance of the estimator are obtained, and closed form expressions derived under the Poisson case. A detailed simulation study is presented...... to compare our close expression for the variance with estimated ones for Poisson cases. The simulation experiments show that the theoretical form for the variance gives acceptable values, which can be used in practice. Finally, we apply the resulting estimator to data on the spatio-temporal distribution...

  3. Are health journalists' practices tied to their perceptions of audience? An attribution and expectancy-value approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinnant, Amanda; Len-Ríos, María E; Oh, Hyun Jee

    2012-01-01

    This study examines a national survey of U.S. health journalists (N = 774) to ascertain how journalists' perceptions of audience use of health news shapes their journalistic practices. We establish a framework through attribution theory and expectancy-value theory for how journalists choose to fulfill their roles as providers of health information. Using these theoretical lenses, we look at whether health journalists' audience orientation is associated with their use of accessibility-oriented or credibility-focused practices. Our findings show that, overall, journalists believe readers are individually responsible for their health outcomes and that journalists focus on providing accessibility-oriented information when they feel their audience's ability to understand information may be compromised. Journalists' beliefs about audience behavior are associated with their attitudes toward communication practices.

  4. Motivational Pathways to STEM Career Choices: Using Expectancy-Value Perspective to Understand Individual and Gender Differences in STEM Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ming-Te; Degol, Jessica

    2013-12-01

    The United States has made a significant effort and investment in STEM education, yet the size and the composition of the STEM workforce continues to fail to meet demand. It is thus important to understand the barriers and factors that influence individual educational and career choices. In this article, we conduct a literature review of the current knowledge surrounding individual and gender differences in STEM educational and career choices, using expectancy-value theory as a guiding framework. The overarching goal of this paper is to provide both a well-defined theoretical framework and complementary empirical evidence for linking specific sociocultural, contextual, biological, and psychological factors to individual and gender differences in STEM interests and choices. Knowledge gained through this review will eventually guide future research and interventions designed to enhance individual motivation and capacity to pursue STEM careers, particularly for females who are interested in STEM but may be constrained by misinformation or stereotypes.

  5. Exact finite volume expectation values of \\overline{Ψ}Ψ in the massive Thirring model from light-cone lattice correlators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hegedűs, Árpád

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, using the light-cone lattice regularization, we compute the finite volume expectation values of the composite operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ between pure fermion states in the Massive Thirring Model. In the light-cone regularized picture, this expectation value is related to 2-point functions of lattice spin operators being located at neighboring sites of the lattice. The operator \\overline{Ψ}Ψ is proportional to the trace of the stress-energy tensor. This is why the continuum finite volume expectation values can be computed also from the set of non-linear integral equations (NLIE) governing the finite volume spectrum of the theory. Our results for the expectation values coming from the computation of lattice correlators agree with those of the NLIE computations. Previous conjectures for the LeClair-Mussardo-type series representation of the expectation values are also checked.

  6. Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chan V

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Over-the-counter medicines (OTC are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. Objective: This study aimed to examine customers’ key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Methods: Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. Results: A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%. Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%, trust in the products (73%, and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95% were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. Conclusions: High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or

  7. Purchasing Over-the-counter medicines from Australian pharmacy: What do the pharmacy customers value and expect?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Vincent; Tran, Hung

    2016-01-01

    Over-the-counter medicines (OTC) are widely available and can be purchased without a prescription. Their availability means that a customer may choose to purchase them without the involvement of a pharmacy/pharmacist. It is important to understand customer OTC purchasing perceptions and behaviour from a pharmacy to better understand the needs and opportunities in this space. This study aimed to examine customers' key expectations and what they value when purchasing OTC and how the effect of health status/stress and perceived risks/benefits of purchasing OTCs from a pharmacy may influence their OTC shopping behaviour. Customers from two metropolitan pharmacies across two different suburbs in Brisbane, Queensland, Australia completed a self-administered questionnaire. Data collection was conducted over a six-week period. The questionnaire examined demographics, current level of health and stress, as well as a range of questions (seven-point Likert-scale) examining perceived benefits and risks, what they value, trust and expect when purchasing OTC. A total of 86 customers from a broad range of demographics were captured in this study. When asked about their current health state, 41% and 23% respectively indicated that they were stressed and tense when they arrived at the pharmacy but many were feeling well (38%). Most customers strongly agreed/agreed that trust in the advice from a pharmacy (96%), trust in the products (73%), and the altruistic approach of a pharmacy (95%) were critical to them. Further, 82% and 78% respectively disagreed that time pressures or costs were concerns, despite many feeling tense and stressed when they came in. When asked where they intend to buy their future OTC, 89% indicated pharmacy instead of a supermarket. High levels of trust, confidence and sense of altruism and care were key factors for customers buying OTC from a pharmacy, regardless of time pressures, costs or existing levels of stress and health.

  8. Vacuum expectation values of Higgs scalars in a SU(2)/sub L/ x SU(2)/sub R/ x U(1) gauge model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitazoe, T.; Mainland, G.B.; Tanaka, K.

    1979-01-01

    We determine the vacuum expectation values of the Higgs scalars within the framework of a six-quark SU(2)/sub L/ x SU(2)/sub R/ x U(1) gauge model after the imposition of discrete symmetries that are necessary in order to express the Cabibbo angle in terms of quark mass ratios and phases of the vacuum expectation values. We find both real and complex solutions for the vacuum expectation values depending on the relative values of the parameters in the Higgs potential

  9. Vacuum expectation values of Higgs scalars in a SU(2)/sub L/ X SU(2)/sub R/ X U(1) gauge model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitazoe, T.; Mainland, G.B.; Tanaka, K.

    1978-01-01

    The vacuum expectation values of the Higgs scalars are determined within the framework of a six quark SU(2)/sub L/ x SU(2)/sub R/ x U(1) gauge model after the imposition of discrete symmetrics that are necessary in order to express the Cabibbo angle in terms of quark mass ratios and phases of the vacuum expectation values. Both real and complex solutions are found for the vacuum expectation values depending on the relative values of the parameters in the Higgs potential

  10. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  11. Transparency in risk assessments - Presenting the 'expectation value' of post-closure risks from radioactive waste repositories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.; Galson, D.A.; Pollard, S.J.T.; Smith, R.E.; Yearsley, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The Environment Agency of England and Wales (the 'Agency') has an extremely broad regulatory remit covering aspects of flood defence, integrated pollution control, water quality, waste management, abstraction control, navigation, fisheries, conservation and recreation. Risk assessment, as a regulatory and management tool plays an essential role in the targeting and prioritisation of this activity, as well as in aiding site-specific decisions on authorisations for abstraction, discharge and/or disposal. From a regulatory perspective, the majority of the Agency's risk assessment activity is focused on critically reviewing risk assessments submitted to the Agency in support of requests for authorisation. With increasing calls for openness in all areas of regulatory decision-making, new demands are being placed on risk assessments with a view to allowing far more transparency and traceability of 'process' and 'content' than has historically been the case. The Agency is responsible for the licensing of radioactive waste disposal facilities in England and Wales. It has issued guidance on what is expected of an application for an authorisation to dispose of low and intermediate level radioactive waste to land - the 'Guidance on Requirements for Authorisation' (the 'GRA'). The GRA includes a risk target and places a strong emphasis on confidence-building during the preparation and assessment of post-closure safety cases for such facilities. In this paper we discuss a recent study commissioned by the Agency which has examined the use of expectation value of risk in assessments and considered ways of improving transparency. The study has concluded that the expectation value is an appropriate measure of risk for comparison with a single-value criterion, provided that the scope of the assessment does not involve undue speculation regarding the FEPs (Features, Events and Processes) to be included. Low probability or speculative events and processes for which no data can be

  12. The relationship of internally directed behavior to self-reinforcement, self-esteem, and expectancy values for exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, L K; Steinhardt, M A

    1992-01-01

    This study investigated two opposing orientations toward exercise and wellness behavior as related to selected personal characteristics. A "self-trusting" orientation focuses on process measures, and exercise and wellness behavior is internally directed. A "self-controlling" orientation focuses on outcome measures, and exercise and wellness behavior is externally directed. Relationships among variables were assessed using Pearson correlation and step-wise multiple regression. One questionnaire was administered to all subjects under quiet classroom conditions. Subjects were enrolled in university physical education activity classes (N = 154), a health promotion and fitness undergraduate class (N = 52), and a commercial aerobic dance program (N = 68). The questionnaire, containing 157 items, assessed exercise orientation, wellness orientation, general self-esteem, physical self-esteem, self-reinforcement, expectancy values for exercise, and level of physical activity. Individuals who reported exercising to improve physical appearance and/or physical performance had higher control scores on the exercise scale; exercising for pleasure or social reasons served as suppressor variables. High control scores on wellness and exercise orientation were indicative of individuals less likely to positively self-reinforce their behavior. A high control score on the wellness scale was significantly related to lower general and physical self-esteem scores. Finally, higher physical self-esteem was significantly related to exercising for pleasure and athletic reasons; exercising to improve physical appearance served as a suppressor variable. These data strengthen the recommendation that health promotion professionals consider alternative approaches to promoting exercise and enhancing wellness.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  13. Tadpoles, anomaly cancellation and the expectation value of the number of the Higgs particles in the standard model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El Naschie, M.S.

    2005-01-01

    We motivate the concept of infinitely large and hierarchical matrices in connection with the eight-dimensional super Riemannian tensor and the unification of all fundamental forces. Subsequently, we derive the number of particle-like states and the expectation value of the number of elementary particle content of a minimally extended standard model using the total number of tadpoles and anomaly cancellation condition:nH+29nt-nv=R(8)-N(SM)=2α-bar 0-1=273 where n H is the number of hyper multiplets, n t the number of tensor multiplets, n v the vector multiplets, R (8) is the number of independent components of Riemann's curvature tensor in eight dimensions, N(SM) is the number of elementary particles content of the standard model and α-bar 0 is the inverse fine structure constant. We can conclude that N(SM)=66. Consequently, we conjecture that five Higgs particles should be involved in the standard model

  14. Vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of a 2D-gravity field and loop amplitudes for strings of noncritical dimensions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Danilov, G.S.

    1995-01-01

    It is shown that, in the theory of free noncritical strings, there are no modular-invariant partition functions on surfaces of higher genus. This is due to the fact that the vacuum expectation value of the stress-energy tensor is singular in the fundamental region on the complex plane in which Riemann surfaces are mapped. The above singularity is associated with a nonzero vacuum expectation value of the 2D-gravity field. 15 refs

  15. Network approach for decision making under risk—How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing ‘goal’ and ‘time’ factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight. PMID:29702665

  16. Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Wei; Chen, Yi-Shin

    2018-01-01

    Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s) by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

  17. Network approach for decision making under risk-How do we choose among probabilistic options with the same expected value?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Pan

    Full Text Available Conventional decision theory suggests that under risk, people choose option(s by maximizing the expected utility. However, theories deal ambiguously with different options that have the same expected utility. A network approach is proposed by introducing 'goal' and 'time' factors to reduce the ambiguity in strategies for calculating the time-dependent probability of reaching a goal. As such, a mathematical foundation that explains the irrational behavior of choosing an option with a lower expected utility is revealed, which could imply that humans possess rationality in foresight.

  18. Why Do Children Worry about Their Academic Achievement? An Expectancy-Value Perspective on Elementary Students' Worries about Their Mathematics and Reading Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauermann, Fani; Eccles, Jacquelynne S.; Pekrun, Reinhard

    2017-01-01

    Children's worrying about their academic performance has profound implications for their learning and wellbeing in school. Understanding the contextual and psychological antecedents of students' worry thus represents an important area of research. Drawing on Eccles and colleagues' expectancy-value theory and Pekrun's control-value theory and using…

  19. Predicting who will major in a science discipline: Expectancy-value theory as part of an ecological model for studying academic communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sullins, Ellen S.; Hernandez, Delia; Fuller, Carol; Shiro Tashiro, Jay

    Research on factors that shape recruitment and retention in undergraduate science majors currently is highly fragmented and in need of an integrative research framework. Such a framework should incorporate analyses of the various levels of organization that characterize academic communities (i.e., the broad institutional level, the departmental level, and the student level), and should also provide ways to study the interactions occurring within and between these structural levels. We propose that academic communities are analogous to ecosystems, and that the research paradigms of modern community ecology can provide the necessary framework, as well as new and innovative approaches to a very complex area. This article also presents the results of a pilot study that demonstrates the promise of this approach at the student level. We administered a questionnaire based on expectancy-value theory to undergraduates enrolled in introductory biology courses. Itself an integrative approach, expectancy-value theory views achievement-related behavior as a joint function of the person's expectancy of success in the behavior and the subjective value placed on such success. Our results indicated: (a) significant gender differences in the underlying factor structures of expectations and values related to the discipline of biology, (b) expectancy-value factors significantly distinguished biology majors from nonmajors, and (c) expectancy-value factors significantly predicted students' intent to enroll in future biology courses. We explore the expectancy-value framework as an operationally integrative framework in our ecological model for studying academic communities, especially in the context of assessing the underrepresentation of women and minorities in the sciences. Future research directions as well as practical implications are also discussed.

  20. Math-related career aspirations and choices within Eccles et al.'s expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauermann, Fani; Tsai, Yi-Miau; Eccles, Jacquelynne S

    2017-08-01

    Which occupation to pursue is one of the more consequential decisions people make and represents a key developmental task. Yet the underlying developmental processes associated with either individual or group differences in occupational choices are still not well understood. This study contributes toward filling this gap, focusing in particular on the math domain. We examined two aspects of Eccles et al.'s (1983) expectancy-value theory of achievement-related behaviors: (a) the reciprocal associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs and adolescents' career plans and (b) the multiplicative association between expectancies and values in predicting occupational outcomes in the math domain. Our analyses indicate that adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math and their math- or science-related career plans reported at the beginning and end of high school predict each other over time, with the exception of intrinsic interest in math. Furthermore, multiplicative associations between adolescents' expectancy and subjective task value beliefs about math predict math-related career attainment approximately 15 years after graduation from high school. Gender differences emerged regarding career-related beliefs and career attainment, with male students being more likely than female to both pursue and attain math-related careers. These gender differences could not be explained by differences in beliefs about math as an academic subject. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating effect of listening metacognitive awareness on the relationship between expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score. According to the results, test takers' listening scores can be predicted by expectancy, interest, and listening anxiety significantly. The relationship between expectancy, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score was mediated by listening metacognitive awareness. The findings have implications for test takers to improve their test taking motivation and listening metacognitive awareness, as well as for L2 teachers to intervene in L2 listening classrooms.

  2. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian Xu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating effect of listening metacognitive awareness on the relationship between expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score. According to the results, test takers’ listening scores can be predicted by expectancy, interest, and listening anxiety significantly. The relationship between expectancy, interest, listening anxiety, and listening test score was mediated by listening metacognitive awareness. The findings have implications for test takers to improve their test taking motivation and listening metacognitive awareness, as well as for L2 teachers to intervene in L2 listening classrooms.

  3. The Mediating Effect of Listening Metacognitive Awareness between Test-Taking Motivation and Listening Test Score: An Expectancy-Value Theory Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Jian

    2017-01-01

    The present study investigated test-taking motivation in L2 listening testing context by applying Expectancy-Value Theory as the framework. Specifically, this study was intended to examine the complex relationships among expectancy, importance, interest, listening anxiety, listening metacognitive awareness, and listening test score using data from a large-scale and high-stakes language test among Chinese first-year undergraduates. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the mediating...

  4. Male Student-Athlete Perceptions of University Academic Staff Expectations: A Qualitative Analysis of Perceptions, Value and Academic Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verbeck, Teresa A.

    2010-01-01

    Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 11 male collegiate student-athletes in a revenue-generating sport in an effort to better inform current academic support practitioners how to best serve this population. The inquiry focused on student-athlete perceptions of two areas: (1) perceptions regarding the expectations academic personnel have…

  5. Testing VBN theory in Japan: Relationships between values, beliefs, norms, and acceptability and expected effects of a car pricing policy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hiratsuka, Jiro; Perlaviciute, Goda; Steg, Linda

    The VBN (value-belief-norm) theory of environmentalism postulates that values influence pro-environmental behaviour via pro-environmental beliefs and personal norms. A few studies provided support for the theory in explaining pro-environmental behaviour in Europe and Latin America. Beyond these

  6. Expectancy bias in a selective conditioning procedure: trait anxiety increases the threat value of a blocked stimulus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boddez, Yannick; Vervliet, Bram; Baeyens, Frank; Lauwers, Stephanie; Hermans, Dirk; Beckers, Tom

    2012-06-01

    In a blocking procedure, a single conditioned stimulus (CS) is paired with an unconditioned stimulus (US), such as electric shock, in the first stage. During the subsequent stage, the CS is presented together with a second CS and this compound is followed by the same US. Fear conditioning studies in non-human animals have demonstrated that fear responding to the added second CS typically remains low, despite its being paired with the US. Accordingly, the blocking procedure is well suited as a laboratory model for studying (deficits in) selective threat appraisal. The present study tested the relation between trait anxiety and blocking in human aversive conditioning. Healthy participants filled in a trait anxiety questionnaire and underwent blocking treatment in the human aversive conditioning paradigm. Threat appraisal was measured through shock expectancy ratings and skin conductance. As hypothesized, trait anxiety was positively associated with shock expectancy ratings to the blocked stimulus. In skin conductance responding, no significant effects of stimulus type could be detected during blocking training or testing. The current study does not allow strong claims to be made regarding the theoretical process underlying the expectancy bias we observed. The observed shock expectancy bias might be one of the mechanisms leading to non-specific fear in individuals at risk for developing anxiety disorders. A deficit in blocking, or a deficit in selective threat appraisal at the more general level, indeed results in fear becoming non-specific and disconnected from the most likely causes or predictors of danger. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Information Science Instruction and Changes in Girls' and Boy's Expectancy and Value Beliefs: In Search of Gender-Equitable Pedagogical Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vekiri, Ioanna

    2013-01-01

    In this study, which was situated in the context of information science instruction, data were collected twice using student self-reports to examine the effects of pedagogical practices on changes in boys' and girls' expectancy and value beliefs about computing. Participants were 326 7th-grade students, enrolled in three middle schools that were…

  8. Understanding the Relationship between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Svoboda, Ryan C.; Rozek, Christopher S.; Hyde, Janet S.; Harackiewicz, Judith M.; Destin, Mesmin

    2016-01-01

    High school students from lower-socioeconomic status (SES) backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science…

  9. Expectancy-Value Models for the STEM Persistence Plans of Ninth-Grade, High-Ability Students: A Comparison between Black, Hispanic, and White Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersen, Lori; Ward, Thomas J.

    2014-01-01

    Group differences in the effects of the expectancies and values that high-ability students have for science and mathematics on plans to persist in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) were investigated. A nationally representative sample of ninth-grade students, the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS: 2009; n =…

  10. Choices and Changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students' Longitudinal Reflections about Their Choice of a STEM Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school…

  11. Mental models of adherence: parallels in perceptions, values, and expectations in adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and other personal regimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzo, Jon; Bell, Alexandra

    2018-05-09

    A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which strongly influences behaviors. This study explored orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and how they related to mental models of adherence to other types of personal regimens. The study followed an interpretive description qualitative design. Data were collected via two semi-structured interviews. Interview One focused on participants prior experiences adhering to personal regimens. Interview Two focused on experiences adhering to their current prescribed home exercise program. Data analysis followed a constant comparative method. Findings revealed similarity in perceptions, values, and expectations that informed individuals mental models of adherence to personal regimens and prescribed home exercise programs. Perceived realized results, expected results, perceived social supports, and value of convenience characterized mental models of adherence. Parallels between mental models of adherence for prescribed home exercise and other personal regimens suggest that patients adherence behavior to prescribed routines may be influenced by adherence experiences in other aspects of their lives. By gaining insight into patients adherence experiences, values, and expectations across life domains, clinicians may tailor supports that enhance home exercise adherence. Implications for Rehabilitation A mental model is the collection of an individual's perceptions, values, and expectations about a particular aspect of their life, which is based on prior experiences and strongly influences behaviors. This study demonstrated similarity in orthopedic outpatients mental models of adherence to prescribed home exercise programs and adherence to personal regimens in other aspects of their lives. Physical therapists should inquire about patients non-medical adherence experiences, as strategies patients

  12. Academic Procrastination in Linking Motivation and Achievement-Related Behaviours: A Perspective of Expectancy-Value Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Fan; Fan, Weihua

    2017-01-01

    The objective of the present study was to investigate the relationships among college students' achievement motivation (subjective task value and academic self-efficacy), academic procrastination (delay and missing deadlines) and achievement-related behaviours (effort and persistence). More specifically, the study investigated the mediating role…

  13. Understanding unemployed people's job search behaviour, unemployment experience and well-being: a comparison of expectancy-value theory and self-determination theory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Maarten; Lens, Willy; De Witte, Hans; Feather, N T

    2005-06-01

    Previous unemployment research has directly tested hypotheses derived from expectancy-value theory (EVT; Feather, 1982, 1990), but no comparative analysis has been executed with another motivational framework. In one large study with 446 unemployed people, separate analyses provided good evidence for predictions derived from both EVT and self-determination theory (SDT; Deci & Ryan, 1985, 2000). Comparative analyses indicated that the type of people's job search motivation, as conceptualized through the notions of autonomous versus controlled motivation within SDT, is an important predictor of people's unemployment experience and wellbeing, beyond people's strength of motivation assessed within EVT through expectancies of finding a job and employment value. The importance of simultaneously testing two theoretical frameworks is discussed.

  14. Understanding the Relationship Between Parental Education and STEM Course Taking Through Identity-Based and Expectancy-Value Theories of Motivation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryan C. Svoboda

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available High school students from lower–socioeconomic status (SES backgrounds are less likely to enroll in advanced mathematics and science courses compared to students from higher-SES backgrounds. The current longitudinal study draws on identity-based and expectancy-value theories of motivation to explain the SES and mathematics and science course-taking relationship. This was done by gathering reports from students and their parents about their expectations, values, and future identities for science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM topics beginning in middle school through age 20. Results showed that parental education predicted mathematics and science course taking in high school and college, and this relationship was partially mediated by students’ and parents’ future identity and motivational beliefs concerning mathematics and science. These findings suggest that psychological interventions may be useful for reducing social class gaps in STEM course taking, which has critical implications for the types of opportunities and careers available to students.

  15. Quantum Optimal Control of Single Harmonic Oscillator under Quadratic Controls together with Linear Dipole Polarizability: A Fluctuation Free Expectation Value Dynamical Perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayvaz, Muzaffer; Demiralp, Metin

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the optimal control equations for one dimensional quantum harmonic oscillator under the quadratic control operators together with linear dipole polarizability effects are constructed in the sense of Heisenberg equation of motion. A numerical technique based on the approximation to the non-commuting quantum mechanical operators from the fluctuation free expectation value dynamics perspective in the classical limit is also proposed for the solution of optimal control equations which are ODEs with accompanying boundary conditions. The dipole interaction of the system is considered to be linear, and the observable whose expectation value will be suppressed during the control process is considered to be quadratic in terms of position operator x. The objective term operator is also assumed to be quadratic.

  16. Racial/ethnic differences in the influence of cultural values, alcohol resistance self-efficacy, and alcohol expectancies on risk for alcohol initiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shih, Regina A; Miles, Jeremy N V; Tucker, Joan S; Zhou, Annie J; D'Amico, Elizabeth J

    2012-09-01

    Prior research has reported racial/ethnic differences in the early initiation of alcohol use, suggesting that cultural values that are central to specific racial/ethnic groups may be influencing these differences. This 1-year longitudinal study examines associations between two types of cultural values, parental respect (honor for one's parents) and familism (connectedness with family), both measured at baseline, and subsequent alcohol initiation in a sample of 6,054 (approximately 49% male, 57% Hispanic, 22% Asian, 18% non-Hispanic White, and 4% non-Hispanic Black) middle school students in Southern California. We tested whether the associations of cultural values with alcohol initiation could be explained by baseline measures of alcohol resistance self-efficacy (RSE) and alcohol expectancies. We also explored whether these pathways differed by race/ethnicity. In the full sample, adolescents with higher parental respect were less likely to initiate alcohol use, an association that was partially explained by higher RSE and fewer positive alcohol expectancies. Familism was not significantly related to alcohol initiation. Comparing racial/ethnic groups, higher parental respect was protective against alcohol initiation for Whites and Asians, but not Blacks or Hispanics. There were no racial/ethnic differences in the association between familism and alcohol initiation. Results suggest that cultural values are important factors in the decision to use alcohol and these values appear to operate in part, by influencing alcohol positive expectancies and RSE. Interventions that focus on maintaining strong cultural values and building strong bonds between adolescents and their families may help reduce the risk of alcohol initiation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved.

  17. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: An examination of concurrent validity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew M Parker

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules. Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate mechanisms that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC and one such mechanism, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV. Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a choosing risky options when expected value favors those options and (b avoiding risky options when expected value favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  18. Implementing Generalized Additive Models to Estimate the Expected Value of Sample Information in a Microsimulation Model: Results of Three Case Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabideau, Dustin J; Pei, Pamela P; Walensky, Rochelle P; Zheng, Amy; Parker, Robert A

    2018-02-01

    The expected value of sample information (EVSI) can help prioritize research but its application is hampered by computational infeasibility, especially for complex models. We investigated an approach by Strong and colleagues to estimate EVSI by applying generalized additive models (GAM) to results generated from a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA). For 3 potential HIV prevention and treatment strategies, we estimated life expectancy and lifetime costs using the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) model, a complex patient-level microsimulation model of HIV progression. We fitted a GAM-a flexible regression model that estimates the functional form as part of the model fitting process-to the incremental net monetary benefits obtained from the CEPAC PSA. For each case study, we calculated the expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) using both the conventional nested Monte Carlo approach and the GAM approach. EVSI was calculated using the GAM approach. For all 3 case studies, the GAM approach consistently gave similar estimates of EVPPI compared with the conventional approach. The EVSI behaved as expected: it increased and converged to EVPPI for larger sample sizes. For each case study, generating the PSA results for the GAM approach required 3 to 4 days on a shared cluster, after which EVPPI and EVSI across a range of sample sizes were evaluated in minutes. The conventional approach required approximately 5 weeks for the EVPPI calculation alone. Estimating EVSI using the GAM approach with results from a PSA dramatically reduced the time required to conduct a computationally intense project, which would otherwise have been impractical. Using the GAM approach, we can efficiently provide policy makers with EVSI estimates, even for complex patient-level microsimulation models.

  19. Exploring traditional end-of-life beliefs, values, expectations, and practices among Chinese women living in England: Informing culturally safe care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fang, Mei Lan; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Sixsmith, Judith; Wong, Louise Yuen Ming; Callender, Matthew

    2015-10-01

    This study explores the end-of-life (EoL) beliefs, values, practices, and expectations of a select group of harder-to-reach Chinese women living in England. A cultural safety approach was undertaken to interpret 11 in-depth, semistructured interviews. Interviews were conducted in Mandarin and Cantonese. Transcripts were translated and back-translated by two researchers. Findings were analyzed using the technical analytical principles of grounded theory. The key themes generated from our analysis include: acculturation; differential beliefs and norms in providing care: family versus health services; language and communication; Eastern versus Western spiritual practices and beliefs; and dying, death, and the hereafter. End-of-life discussions can be part of an arduous, painful, and uncomfortable process, particularly for migrants living on the margins of society in a new cultural setting. For some Chinese people living in the United Kingdom, end-of-life care requires attention to acculturation, particularly Western versus Eastern beliefs on religion, spirituality, burial practices, and provision of care, and the availability of culturally specific care, all of which encompass issues related to gender. Stories of a purposive sample of Chinese women were viewed through a cultural safety lens to gain a deeper understanding of how social and cultural norms and expectations, in addition to the pressures of acculturation, impact gendered roles and responsibilities. The analysis revealed variations between/within Eastern and Western culture that resulted in pronounced, and oftentimes gendered, differences in EoL care expectations.

  20. Choices and Changes: Eccles’ Expectancy-Value Model and Upper-Secondary School Students’ Longitudinal Reflections about their Choice of a STEM Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-01-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles’ comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students...... in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model......, and that significant changes in the students’ reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EVMBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students’ dynamical educational choice processes where students...

  1. Best Practice Life Expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Medford, Anthony

    2017-01-01

    been reported previously by various authors. Though remarkable, this is simply an empirical observation. Objective: We examine best-practice life expectancy more formally by using extreme value theory. Methods: Extreme value distributions are fit to the time series (1900 to 2012) of maximum life......Background: Whereas the rise in human life expectancy has been extensively studied, the evolution of maximum life expectancies, i.e., the rise in best-practice life expectancy in a group of populations, has not been examined to the same extent. The linear rise in best-practice life expectancy has...... expectancies at birth and age 65, for both sexes, using data from the Human Mortality Database and the United Nations. Conclusions: Generalized extreme value distributions offer a theoretically justified way to model best-practice life expectancies. Using this framework one can straightforwardly obtain...

  2. Choices and changes: Eccles' Expectancy-Value model and upper-secondary school students' longitudinal reflections about their choice of a STEM education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkegaard, Eva; Ulriksen, Lars

    2016-03-01

    During the past 30 years, Eccles' comprehensive social-psychological Expectancy-Value Model of Motivated Behavioural Choices (EV-MBC model) has been proven suitable for studying educational choices related to Science, Technology, Engineering and/or Mathematics (STEM). The reflections of 15 students in their last year in upper-secondary school concerning their choice of tertiary education were examined using quantitative EV-MBC surveys and repeated qualitative interviews. This article presents the analyses of three cases in detail. The analytical focus was whether the factors indicated in the EV-MBC model could be used to detect significant changes in the students' educational choice processes. An important finding was that the quantitative EV-MBC surveys and the qualitative interviews gave quite different results concerning the students' considerations about the choice of tertiary education, and that significant changes in the students' reflections were not captured by the factors of the EV-MBC model. This questions the validity of the EV-MBC surveys. Moreover, the quantitative factors from the EV-MBC model did not sufficiently explain students' dynamical educational choice processes where students in parallel considered several different potential educational trajectories. We therefore call for further studies of the EV-MBC model's use in describing longitudinal choice processes and especially in investigating significant changes.

  3. Comparing oncology clinical programs by use of innovative designs and expected net present value optimization: Which adaptive approach leads to the best result?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parke, Tom; Marchenko, Olga; Anisimov, Vladimir; Ivanova, Anastasia; Jennison, Christopher; Perevozskaya, Inna; Song, Guochen

    2017-01-01

    Designing an oncology clinical program is more challenging than designing a single study. The standard approaches have been proven to be not very successful during the last decade; the failure rate of Phase 2 and Phase 3 trials in oncology remains high. Improving a development strategy by applying innovative statistical methods is one of the major objectives of a drug development process. The oncology sub-team on Adaptive Program under the Drug Information Association Adaptive Design Scientific Working Group (DIA ADSWG) evaluated hypothetical oncology programs with two competing treatments and published the work in the Therapeutic Innovation and Regulatory Science journal in January 2014. Five oncology development programs based on different Phase 2 designs, including adaptive designs and a standard two parallel arm Phase 3 design were simulated and compared in terms of the probability of clinical program success and expected net present value (eNPV). In this article, we consider eight Phase2/Phase3 development programs based on selected combinations of five Phase 2 study designs and three Phase 3 study designs. We again used the probability of program success and eNPV to compare simulated programs. For the development strategies, we considered that the eNPV showed robust improvement for each successive strategy, with the highest being for a three-arm response adaptive randomization design in Phase 2 and a group sequential design with 5 analyses in Phase 3.

  4. Greater decision-making competence is associated with greater expected-value sensitivity, but not overall risk taking: an examination of concurrent validity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Andrew M; Weller, Joshua A

    2015-01-01

    Decision-making competence reflects individual differences in the susceptibility to committing decision-making errors, measured using tasks common from behavioral decision research (e.g., framing effects, under/overconfidence, following decision rules). Prior research demonstrates that those with higher decision-making competence report lower incidence of health-risking and antisocial behaviors, but there has been less focus on intermediate processes that may impact real-world decisions, and, in particular, those implicated by normative models. Here we test the associations between measures of youth decision-making competence (Y-DMC) and one such process, the degree to which individuals make choices consistent with maximizing expected value (EV). Using a task involving hypothetical gambles, we find that greater EV sensitivity is associated with greater Y-DMC. Higher Y-DMC scores are associated with (a) choosing risky options when EV favors those options and (b) avoiding risky options when EV favors a certain option. This relationship is stronger for gambles that involved potential losses. The results suggest that Y-DMC captures decision processes consistent with standard normative evaluations of risky decisions.

  5. Prognostic value of the six-minute walk test in end-stage renal disease life expectancy: a prospective cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro de Moraes Kohl

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVES: The six-minute walk test has been widely used to evaluate functional capacity and predict mortality in several populations. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of the six-minute walk test for the life expectancy of end-stage renal disease patients. METHODS: Patients over 18 years old who underwent hemodialysis for at least six months were included. Patients with hemodynamic instability, smoking, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, physical incapacity and acute myocardial stroke in the preceding three months were excluded. RESULTS: Fifty-two patients (54% males; 36+11 years old were followed for 144 months. The distance walked in the six-minute walk test was a survival predictor for end-stage renal disease patients. In the multivariate analysis, for each 100 meters walked with a 100-meter increment, the hazard ratio was 0.53, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.37-0.74. There was a positive correlation between the distance walked in the six-minute walk test and peak oxygen consumption (r = 0.508. In the multivariate analysis, each year of dialysis treatment represented a 10% increase in death probability; in the severity index analysis, each point on the scale represented an 11% increase in the death risk. CONCLUSIONS: We observed that survival increased approximately 5% for every 100 meters walked in the six-minute walk test, demonstrating that the test is a viable option for evaluating the functional capacity in patients with end-stage renal disease.

  6. Task Force 1. Report of the Task Force on Patient Expectations, Core Values, Reintegration, and the New Model of Family Medicine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Larry A.; Graham, Robert; Bagley, Bruce; Kilo, Charles M.; Spann, Stephen J.; Bogdewic, Stephen P.; Swanson, John

    2004-01-01

    BACKGROUND To lay the groundwork for the development of a comprehensive strategy to transform and renew the specialty of family medicine, this Future of Family Medicine task force was charged with identifying the core values of family medicine, developing proposals to reform family medicine to meet consumer expectations, and determining systems of care to be delivered by family medicine in the future. METHODS A diverse, multidisciplinary task force representing a broad spectrum of perspectives and expertise analyzed and discussed published literature; findings from surveys, interviews, and focus groups compiled by research firms contracted to the Future of Family Medicine project; and analyses from The Robert Graham Center, professional societies in the United States and abroad, and others. Through meetings, conference calls, and writing, and revision of a series of subcommittee reports, the entire task force reached consensus on its conclusions and recommendations. These were reviewed by an external panel of experts and revisions were made accordingly. MAJOR FINDINGS After delivering on its promise to reverse the decline of general practice in the United States, family medicine and the nation face additional challenges to assure all people receive care that is safe, effective, patient-centered, timely, efficient, and equitable. Challenges the discipline needs to address to improve family physicians’ ability to make important further contributions include developing a broader, more accurate understanding of the specialty among the public and other health professionals, addressing the wide scope and variance in practice types within family medicine, winning respect for the specialty in academic circles, making family medicine a more attractive career option, and dealing with the perception that family medicine is not solidly grounded in science and technology. The task force set forth a proposed identity statement for family medicine, a basket of services that

  7. Evolutionary Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nash, Ulrik William

    2014-01-01

    , they are correlated among people who share environments because these individuals satisfice within their cognitive bounds by using cues in order of validity, as opposed to using cues arbitrarily. Any difference in expectations thereby arise from differences in cognitive ability, because two individuals with identical...... cognitive bounds will perceive business opportunities identically. In addition, because cues provide information about latent causal structures of the environment, changes in causality must be accompanied by changes in cognitive representations if adaptation is to be maintained. The concept of evolutionary......The concept of evolutionary expectations descends from cue learning psychology, synthesizing ideas on rational expectations with ideas on bounded rationality, to provide support for these ideas simultaneously. Evolutionary expectations are rational, but within cognitive bounds. Moreover...

  8. Unequal Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    the role of causal inference in social science; and it discusses the potential of the findings of the dissertation to inform educational policy. In Chapters II and III, constituting the substantive contribution of the dissertation, I examine the process through which students form expectations...... of the relation between the self and educational prospects; evaluations that are socially bounded in that students take their family's social position into consideration when forming their educational expectations. One important consequence of this learning process is that equally talented students tend to make...... for their educational futures. Focusing on the causes rather than the consequences of educational expectations, I argue that students shape their expectations in response to the signals about their academic performance they receive from institutionalized performance indicators in schools. Chapter II considers...

  9. Great Expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dickens, Charles

    2005-01-01

    One of Dickens's most renowned and enjoyable novels, Great Expectations tells the story of Pip, an orphan boy who wishes to transcend his humble origins and finds himself unexpectedly given the opportunity to live a life of wealth and respectability. Over the course of the tale, in which Pip

  10. Experiments expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Gorini, B; Meschi, E

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the expectations and the constraints of the experiments relatively to the commissioning procedure and the running conditions for the 2015 data taking period. The views about the various beam parameters for the p-p period, like beam energy, maximum pileup, bunch spacing and luminosity limitation in IP2 and IP8, are discussed. The goals and the constraints of the 2015 physics program are also presented, including the heavy ions period as well as the special...

  11. Examining the Feasibility and Utility of Estimating Partial Expected Value of Perfect Information (via a Nonparametric Approach) as Part of the Reimbursement Decision-Making Process in Ireland: Application to Drugs for Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCullagh, Laura; Schmitz, Susanne; Barry, Michael; Walsh, Cathal

    2017-11-01

    In Ireland, all new drugs for which reimbursement by the healthcare payer is sought undergo a health technology assessment by the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics. The National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics estimate expected value of perfect information but not partial expected value of perfect information (owing to computational expense associated with typical methodologies). The objective of this study was to examine the feasibility and utility of estimating partial expected value of perfect information via a computationally efficient, non-parametric regression approach. This was a retrospective analysis of evaluations on drugs for cancer that had been submitted to the National Centre for Pharmacoeconomics (January 2010 to December 2014 inclusive). Drugs were excluded if cost effective at the submitted price. Drugs were excluded if concerns existed regarding the validity of the applicants' submission or if cost-effectiveness model functionality did not allow required modifications to be made. For each included drug (n = 14), value of information was estimated at the final reimbursement price, at a threshold equivalent to the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at that price. The expected value of perfect information was estimated from probabilistic analysis. Partial expected value of perfect information was estimated via a non-parametric approach. Input parameters with a population value at least €1 million were identified as potential targets for research. All partial estimates were determined within minutes. Thirty parameters (across nine models) each had a value of at least €1 million. These were categorised. Collectively, survival analysis parameters were valued at €19.32 million, health state utility parameters at €15.81 million and parameters associated with the cost of treating adverse effects at €6.64 million. Those associated with drug acquisition costs and with the cost of care were valued at €6.51 million and €5.71

  12. Using the Idea of Market-Expected Return Rates on Invested Capital in the Verification of Conformity of Market Evaluation of Stock-Listed Companies with their Intrinsic Value

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paweł Mielcarz

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This article presents the concept of investor-expected rates of return on capital of listed companies and the use of these rates in the assessment of the extent to which the stock evaluation of a given entity is compatible with its intrinsic value. The article also features results of the research aimed at verification – with the use of the presented tool – of whether the market value of WSE-listed companies reflects their fundamental value. The calculations presented in the empirical part of the article show that at the beginning of 2011, market evaluation of the most of the analysed entities greatly exceeded their fundamental value.

  13. Community expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kraemer, L.

    2004-01-01

    Historically, the relationship between the nuclear generator and the local community has been one of stability and co-operation. However in more recent times (2000-2003) the nuclear landscape has had several major issues that directly effect the local nuclear host communities. - The associations mandate is to be supportive of the nuclear industry through ongoing dialogue, mutual cooperation and education, - To strengthen community representation with the nuclear industry and politically through networking with other nuclear host communities. As a result of these issues, the Mayors of a number of communities started having informal meetings to discuss the issues at hand and how they effect their constituents. These meetings led to the official formation of the CANHC with representation from: In Canada it is almost impossible to discuss decommissioning and dismantling of Nuclear Facilities without also discussing Nuclear Waste disposal for reasons that I will soon make clear. Also I would like to briefly touch on how and why expectation of communities may differ by geography and circumstance. (author)

  14. IMPORTANCE OF MOTIVATION AND WORK PAY OF YOUNG EMPLOYEES IN THE VALUE CREATION CHAIN OF A BUSINESS COMPANY: ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN AND FORMATION OF EXPECTATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Pilukienė

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As business companies compete in the market and seek to acquire a competitive advantage, one of the most important factors is well-motivated employees who are satisfied with their job. The success of companies operating in various sectors is determined by the quality of products, while the quality is ensured by qualified employees having appropriate skills and knowledge, whose work should be appreciated by monetary work pay established based on reasonable and clear criteria as well as other means of motivation. The process of human resources management in a business company places an ever-growing importance on the development of competences of employees, strengthening of cooperation, empowerment of employees as well as their work pay and motivation in order to achieve an employee’s work quality and productivity, satisfaction of customer needs and successful operation of a company. In the process of the company’s human resources management, special focus should be given to the satisfaction of the expectations and needs of new employees (who are usually young and inexperienced as well as their integration, which ensures the generation of new and creative ideas in the company and, at the same time, high quality of products and work productivity.

  15. Use of net present value analysis to evaluate a publicly funded biomass-to-ethanol research, development, and demonstration program and valuate expected private sector participation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hinman, N D; Yancey, M A

    1998-01-01

    One of the functions of government is to invest tax dollars in programs, projects, and properties that will result in greater public benefit than would have resulted from leaving the tax dollars in the private sector or using them to pay off the public debt. This paper describes the use of Net Present Value (NPV) as an approach to analyze and select investment opportunities for government money in public research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) programs and to evaluate potential private sector participation in the programs. This approach is then applied to a specific biomass-to-ethanol opportunity in California.

  16. Developmental changes and gender effects on motivational constructs based on the expectancy-value model in Czech and United States students regarding learning of science, mathematics, and other subjects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Eun-Mi

    This study employed American and Czech student samples to investigate the motivational constructs used in Eccles and Wigfield's (1983) expectancy-value model. To predict achievement behavior, the model specifies relationships among expectancy for-success and task value, task-specific self-concept, perception of task-difficulty, perceptions of social environment, and interpretations and attributions for past events in relation to the social world. Czech and American students (n = 1,145) in grades 4--12 were the participants in this study. The causal relationships among the constructs were tested to investigate structural similarities and differences in the models for both countries. This study also explored developmental changes, gender, and national differences in the students' motivational beliefs for these motivational constructs: Expectancy for Success, Intrinsic Interest Value, Task-specific Self-concept, Perception of Task-difficulty, and Perceived Vocational Gender Dominance for science, mathematics, and other school subjects. The findings indicated that, for both countries, with respect to changes over grade level, compared to the younger students, the older students showed lower motivational beliefs for most subject areas except reading. However, the Czech students in grades 6--8 showed more positive motivational beliefs in life science and social studies than did the Czech students in other grade levels. In comparing genders, the male students exhibited more positive motivational beliefs in physical science than did the female students, and female students showed more positive motivational beliefs in reading than did the male students. For life science, the Czech female students rated Intrinsic Interest Value and Task-specific Self-concept higher than did their peer male students. The American students' motivational beliefs in reading were more positive than were Czech students', and the Czech students held more positive motivational beliefs in life

  17. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    2017-01-01

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economistís model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  18. The Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frydman, Roman; Johansen, Søren; Rahbek, Anders

    We introduce the Qualitative Expectations Hypothesis (QEH) as a new approach to modeling macroeconomic and financial outcomes. Building on John Muth's seminal insight underpinning the Rational Expectations Hypothesis (REH), QEH represents the market's forecasts to be consistent with the predictions...... of an economist's model. However, by assuming that outcomes lie within stochastic intervals, QEH, unlike REH, recognizes the ambiguity faced by an economist and market participants alike. Moreover, QEH leaves the model open to ambiguity by not specifying a mechanism determining specific values that outcomes take...

  19. On expectation values for nuclear energy levels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Wet, J.A.

    1978-01-01

    The nuclear model is built up by constructing measured states, including the ground state, from the vacuum state. All states are, however, not accessible from the ground state so that selection rules may be found which at the same time impose even more stringent conditions on the labelling of energy levels. These are the subject of this paper

  20. Measuring Risk When Expected Losses Are Unbounded

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alejandro Balbás

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new method to introduce coherent risk measures for risks with infinite expectation, such as those characterized by some Pareto distributions. Extensions of the conditional value at risk, the weighted conditional value at risk and other examples are given. Actuarial applications are analyzed, such as extensions of the expected value premium principle when expected losses are unbounded.

  1. An Investigation of the Effects of Customer’s Expectations and Perceived Quality on Customer’s Loyalty with the Mediating Role of the Perceived Value and Customer’s Satisfaction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmoudreza Mostaghimi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to investigate the effect of customer’s expectations and the perceived quality on customer’s loyalty with the mediating role of the perceived value and customer’s satisfaction. The statistic population of the article includes the customers of the agencies of Iran Khodro Company in Gilan province, the city of Rasht and due to the infinity of statistic population, the sample volume has been considered from the amount of 384, based on the Morgan table. After the collection of questionnaires, data has been analyzed by means of LISREL Software. The analysis of findings indicates that customer’s expectations of the products of Iran Khodro Company affected the perceived quality of the product as well as customer’s satisfaction positively and meaningfully. The research results have also indicated that the perceived quality of the products of Iran Khodro Company also has affected the perceived value of the product and the customer’s satisfaction, which has been representative of customer’s loyalty. In the area of customer’s perceptions of the quality of hardware, managers must pay more attention to beauty and charm of the surroundings and try to provide enough explanation and necessary response to customer’s questions about the selected automobiles. It is suggested to managers that by means of improving one of the dimensions of quality, they also improve customer’s perceptions and requests in other dimensions. Planning is necessary and required in order to improve the local space of agencies, improving the quality, and decreasing components prices. Planning for decreasing final price and supplying components with lower prices will be important.

  2. Valores atribuídos ao trabalho e expectativa de futuro: como os jovens se posicionam? Values attributed to work and expectations for the future: how young people position themselves?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheila Aparecida Ferreira Lachtim

    2011-10-01

    region. In general, young people from all groups perceive work as something that is valuable, essential to attain the growth and maturation that is expected in adulthood. The purpose of the study proved to be a little different, since while for some work is the means through which it is possible to achieve the values of consumption and social position, to others it is a means to meet basic survival needs. Thus, the future depends on the direction they take in the labor market, since this is believed to be the main means to materialize other dreams.

  3. Expecting the unexpected

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mcneill, Ilona M.; Dunlop, Patrick D.; Heath, Jonathan B.

    2013-01-01

    People who live in wildfire-prone communities tend to form their own hazard-related expectations, which may influence their willingness to prepare for a fire. Past research has already identified two important expectancy-based factors associated with people's intentions to prepare for a natural......) and measured actual rather than intended preparedness. In addition, we tested the relation between preparedness and two additional threat-related expectations: the expectation that one can rely on an official warning and the expectation of encountering obstacles (e.g., the loss of utilities) during a fire...

  4. Determining health expectancies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Robine, Jean-Marie

    2003-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Jean-Marie Robine 9 1 Increase in Life Expectancy and Concentration of Ages at Death . . . . France Mesle´ and Jacques Vallin 13 2 Compression of Morbidity...

  5. Performance appraisal of expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Russkikh G.A.

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available this article provides basic concepts for teachers to estimate and reach planned students’ expectations, describes functions and elements of expectations; nature of external and internal estimate, technology to estimate the results, gives recommendations how to create diagnostic assignments.

  6. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations are generated with different degrees of certainty. Given distributions of expectedness ratings for multiple continuations of each context, as obtained with the probe-tone paradigm, this certainty can be quantified in terms of Shannon entropy. Because expectations arise from s...

  7. Life expectancy and education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Casper Worm; Strulik, Holger

    2017-01-01

    , we find that US states with higher mortality rates from cardiovascular disease prior to the 1970s experienced greater increases in adult life expectancy and higher education enrollment. Our estimates suggest that a one-standard deviation higher treatment intensity is associated with an increase...... in adult life expectancy of 0.37 years and 0.07–0.15 more years of higher education....

  8. Expected Classification Accuracy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawrence M. Rudner

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Every time we make a classification based on a test score, we should expect some number..of misclassifications. Some examinees whose true ability is within a score range will have..observed scores outside of that range. A procedure for providing a classification table of..true and expected scores is developed for polytomously scored items under item response..theory and applied to state assessment data. A simplified procedure for estimating the..table entries is also presented.

  9. Expected utility without utility

    OpenAIRE

    Castagnoli, E.; Licalzi, M.

    1996-01-01

    This paper advances an interpretation of Von Neumann–Morgenstern’s expected utility model for preferences over lotteries which does not require the notion of a cardinal utility over prizes and can be phrased entirely in the language of probability. According to it, the expected utility of a lottery can be read as the probability that this lottery outperforms another given independent lottery. The implications of this interpretation for some topics and models in decision theory are considered....

  10. Sex and life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seifarth, Joshua E; McGowan, Cheri L; Milne, Kevin J

    2012-12-01

    A sexual dimorphism in human life expectancy has existed in almost every country for as long as records have been kept. Although human life expectancy has increased each year, females still live longer, on average, than males. Undoubtedly, the reasons for the sex gap in life expectancy are multifaceted, and it has been discussed from both sociological and biological perspectives. However, even if biological factors make up only a small percentage of the determinants of the sex difference in this phenomenon, parity in average life expectancy should not be anticipated. The aim of this review is to highlight biological mechanisms that may underlie the sexual dimorphism in life expectancy. Using PubMed, ISI Web of Knowledge, and Google Scholar, as well as cited and citing reference histories of articles through August 2012, English-language articles were identified, read, and synthesized into categories that could account for biological sex differences in human life expectancy. The examination of biological mechanisms accounting for the female-based advantage in human life expectancy has been an active area of inquiry; however, it is still difficult to prove the relative importance of any 1 factor. Nonetheless, biological differences between the sexes do exist and include differences in genetic and physiological factors such as progressive skewing of X chromosome inactivation, telomere attrition, mitochondrial inheritance, hormonal and cellular responses to stress, immune function, and metabolic substrate handling among others. These factors may account for at least a part of the female advantage in human life expectancy. Despite noted gaps in sex equality, higher body fat percentages and lower physical activity levels globally at all ages, a sex-based gap in life expectancy exists in nearly every country for which data exist. There are several biological mechanisms that may contribute to explaining why females live longer than men on average, but the complexity of the

  11. Higher Order Expectations in Asset Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Philippe BACCHETTA; Eric VAN WINCOOP

    2004-01-01

    We examine formally Keynes' idea that higher order beliefs can drive a wedge between an asset price and its fundamental value based on expected future payoffs. Higher order expectations add an additional term to a standard asset pricing equation. We call this the higher order wedge, which depends on the difference between higher and first order expectations of future payoffs. We analyze the determinants of this wedge and its impact on the equilibrium price. In the context of a dynamic noisy r...

  12. Performance expectation plan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, P.E.

    1998-09-04

    This document outlines the significant accomplishments of fiscal year 1998 for the Tank Waste Remediation System (TWRS) Project Hanford Management Contract (PHMC) team. Opportunities for improvement to better meet some performance expectations have been identified. The PHMC has performed at an excellent level in administration of leadership, planning, and technical direction. The contractor has met and made notable improvement of attaining customer satisfaction in mission execution. This document includes the team`s recommendation that the PHMC TWRS Performance Expectation Plan evaluation rating for fiscal year 1998 be an Excellent.

  13. Marital Expectations in Strong African American Marriages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaterlaus, J Mitchell; Skogrand, Linda; Chaney, Cassandra; Gahagan, Kassandra

    2017-12-01

    The current exploratory study utilized a family strengths framework to identify marital expectations in 39 strong African American heterosexual marriages. Couples reflected on their marital expectations over their 10 or more years of marriage. Three themes emerged through qualitative analysis and the participants' own words were used in the presentation of the themes. African Americans indicated that there was growth in marital expectations over time, with marital expectations often beginning with unrealistic expectations that grew into more realistic expectations as their marriages progressed. Participants also indicated that core expectations in strong African American marriages included open communication, congruent values, and positive treatment of spouse. Finally, participants explained there is an "I" in marriage as they discussed the importance of autonomy within their marital relationships. Results are discussed in association with existing research and theory. © 2016 Family Process Institute.

  14. Expectancy Theory in Media and Message Selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Leuven, Jim

    1981-01-01

    Argues for reversing emphasis on uses and gratifications research in favor of an expectancy model which holds that selection of a particular medium depends on (1) the expectation that the choice will be followed by a message of interest and (2) the importance of that message in satisfying user's values. (PD)

  15. Test Expectancy and Memory for Important Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Middlebrooks, Catherine D.; Murayama, Kou; Castel, Alan D.

    2017-01-01

    Prior research suggests that learners study and remember information differently depending upon the type of test they expect to later receive. The current experiments investigate how testing expectations impact the study of and memory for valuable information. Participants studied lists of words ranging in value from 1 to 10 points with the goal…

  16. Behavior, Expectations and Status

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webster, Jr, Murray; Rashotte, Lisa Slattery

    2010-01-01

    We predict effects of behavior patterns and status on performance expectations and group inequality using an integrated theory developed by Fisek, Berger and Norman (1991). We next test those predictions using new experimental techniques we developed to control behavior patterns as independent variables. In a 10-condition experiment, predictions…

  17. Life Expectancy in 2040

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; DuGoff, Eva H; Wu, Albert W.

    2016-01-01

    We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes...

  18. Spiking the expectancy profiles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Chr.; Loui, Psyche; Vuust, Peter

    Melodic expectations have long been quantified using expectedness ratings. Motivated by statistical learning and sharper key profiles in musicians, we model musical learning as a process of reducing the relative entropy between listeners' prior expectancy profiles and probability distributions...... of a given musical style or of stimuli used in short-term experiments. Five previous probe-tone experiments with musicians and non-musicians are revisited. Exp. 1-2 used jazz, classical and hymn melodies. Exp. 3-5 collected ratings before and after exposure to 5, 15 or 400 novel melodies generated from...... a finite-state grammar using the Bohlen-Pierce scale. We find group differences in entropy corresponding to degree and relevance of musical training and within-participant decreases after short-term exposure. Thus, whereas inexperienced listeners make high-entropy predictions by default, statistical...

  19. Chinese students' great expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thøgersen, Stig

    2013-01-01

    The article focuses on Chinese students' hopes and expectations before leaving to study abroad. The national political environment for their decision to go abroad is shaped by an official narrative of China's transition to a more creative and innovative economy. Students draw on this narrative to...... system, they think of themselves as having a role in the transformation of Chinese attitudes to education and parent-child relations....

  20. Expectancy Theory Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-08-01

    accomplish the task, (2) the instrumentality of task performance for job outcomes, and (3) the instrumentality of outcomes for need satisfaction . We...in this discussion: effort, performance , outcomes, and needs. In order to present briefly the conventional approach to the Vroom models, another...Presumably, this is the final event in the sequence of effort, performance , outcome, and need satisfaction . The actual research reported in expectancy

  1. Expectations from the child

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erdal Atabek

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Transition from agricultural society to industry society, from industrial society to science society has taken place. In all these societies, expectations from children also vary. In the agricultural community, human labor is based on arm power. For this reason, expectation from children is to increase work power. Having more children is the basis for the expectations in this community to see that the boy is valuable because he has increased his work power. In the industrial society, the power of the arm changed its place with the machine power. The knowledgeable person is not a family grown-up but a foreman. Childhood was distinguished during this period. It has been investigated that the child has a separate development.  In the information society, communication and information has never been as fast as it is in this period.  The widespread use of the Internet, and the use of social networks such as Facebook and Twitter are in this period. In this society, families are panicked to prepare a future in their own heads for their children. Because the parents thought of their children, they decided about the child's life instead of the child making these decisions. This has had a negative impact on children's sense of autonomy and their ability to take responsibility. To change this, parents should train their children in auto control and develop children's impulse control skills. The children should be able to understand their emotions and make decisions by reasoning and reasoning.

  2. Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trifon I. Missov

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprovides an exact formula for gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth and a simplerhigh-accuracy approximation that can be used in practice for computational convenience.In addition, the article compares actual (life-table to model-based (gamma-Gompertzlife expectancy to assess on aggregate how many years of life expectancy are not captured(or overestimated by the gamma-Gompertz mortality mechanism. COMMENTS A closed-form expression for gamma-Gomeprtz life expectancy at birth contains a special(the hypergeometric function. It aids assessing the impact of gamma-Gompertz parameterson life expectancy values. The paper shows that a high-accuracy approximation canbe constructed by assuming an integer value for the shape parameter of the gamma distribution.A historical comparison between model-based and actual life expectancy forSwedish females reveals a gap that is decreasing to around 2 years from 1950 onwards.Looking at remaining life expectancies at ages 30 and 50, we see this gap almost disappearing.

  3. Price expectations and petroleum development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollio, G.; Marian, W.S.

    1991-01-01

    In the first section of this paper, the authors present a highly stylized model of the world oil market that explicitly incorporates both expectative and financial effects. The model generates the extremely interesting result that actual future price outcomes are inversely related to prevailing price expectations, owing to fluctuation in the level and timing of industry investment expenditure. Given the importance of price expectations, it is surprising that the topic has received such scant attention. The authors therefore present in the second section of selective survey of the various measures that have been proposed and used in the literature, as well as an assessment of the value of potentially new indices and market prices for existing hydrocarbon reserves, for example. In the final section of the paper, we discuss the extent to which financial innovation, in the form of commodity-linked products-such as swaps, caps, collars, and so forth-are transforming the oil market, enabling all market segments to manage price uncertainty far more effectively than was ever possible in the past

  4. Ethical issues and societal expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metlay, D.

    2010-01-01

    Daniel Metlay (NWTRB) declared that institutions had always recognised an ethical obligation to manage high- level radioactive waste in unprecedented ways. This obligation has not only endured, but has become more explicit and multidimensional and it now subsumed under a more general rubric of 'societal expectations'. D. Metlay directed attention toward the proceedings of previous RWMC-RF workshop ', which contains five essays, authored by Kjell Andersson, Andrew Blowers, Carl-Reinhold Braakenhielm, Francois Dermange, and Patricia Fleming, that are relevant to the question of ethical issues and societal expectations. D. Metlay observed that 'societal expectations' are hard to define and thus very hard to measure. They may vary considerably with time and from country to country. As an illustration he referred to an inquiry performed by a task group 30 years ago in a document entitled 'Proposed Goals for Radioactive Waste Management' (NUREG-0300) on behalf of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Conclusions from D. Metlay are that, for the most part, societal expectations in the United States appear to be quite stable over a period of more than 30 years. In two areas, however, there are clear differences in emphasis between expectations articulated in the last few years and those recorded in 1978. (1) While then there was emphasis on the operational reliability of organisations and institutions. In particular, much care was taken to discuss the inherent limitations on bureaucratic error-correction in the future. The focus is nowadays more on bureaucratic behaviours associated with carrying out decision-making processes in the present. (2) While there is current emphasis on the importance of trust, transparency, and accountability, the NRC document may cast some doubt on the reliability of a stepwise decision-making process. In the domain of radioactive waste management, error signals are notoriously unclear, and strong disagreements over objectives and value trade

  5. Expected Term Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buraschi, Andrea; Piatti, Ilaria; Whelan, Paul

    We construct and study the cross-sectional properties of survey-based bond risk premia and compare them to their traditional statistical counterparts. We document large heterogeneity in skill, identify top forecasters, and learn about the importance of subjective risk premia in long-term bonds...... dynamics. The consensus is not a sufficient statistics of the cross-section of expectations and we propose an alternative real-time aggregate measure of risk premia consistent with Friedmans market selection hypothesis. We then use this measure to evaluate structural models and find support...

  6. Referral expectations of radiology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, W.L.; Altmaier, E.; Berberoglu, L.; Morris, K.

    1989-01-01

    The expectation of the referring physician are key to developing a successful practice in radiology. Structured interviews with 17 clinicians in both community care and academic practice documented that accuracy of the radiologic report was the single most important factor in clinician satisfaction. Data intercorrelation showed that accuracy of report correlated with frequency of referral (r = .49). Overall satisfaction of the referring physician with radiology correlated with accuracy (r = .69), patient satisfaction (r = .36), and efficiency in archiving (r = .42). These data may be weighted by departmental managers to allocate resources for improving referring physician satisfaction

  7. Agreeing on expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Christian; Bentsen, Martin Juul

    Commitment and trust are often mentioned as important aspects of creating a perception of reliability between counterparts. In the context of university-industry collaborations (UICs), agreeing on ambitions and expectations are adamant to achieving outcomes that are equally valuable to all parties...... involved. Despite this, our initial probing indicated that such covenants rarely exist. As such, this paper draws on project management theory and proposes the possibility of structuring assessments of potential partners before university-industry collaborations are brought to life. Our analysis suggests...

  8. Probability via expectation

    CERN Document Server

    Whittle, Peter

    1992-01-01

    This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap­ peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de­ manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...

  9. Gender Roles and Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Susana A. Eisenchlas

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available One consequence of the advent of cyber communication is that increasing numbers of people go online to ask for, obtain, and presumably act upon advice dispensed by unknown peers. Just as advice seekers may not have access to information about the identities, ideologies, and other personal characteristics of advice givers, advice givers are equally ignorant about their interlocutors except for the bits of demographic information that the latter may offer freely. In the present study, that information concerns sex. As the sex of the advice seeker may be the only, or the predominant, contextual variable at hand, it is expected that that identifier will guide advice givers in formulating their advice. The aim of this project is to investigate whether and how the sex of advice givers and receivers affects the type of advice, through the empirical analysis of a corpus of web-based Spanish language forums on personal relationship difficulties. The data revealed that, in the absence of individuating information beyond that implicit in the advice request, internalized gender expectations along the lines of agency and communality are the sources from which advice givers draw to guide their counsel. This is despite the trend in discursive practices used in formulating advice, suggesting greater language convergence across sexes.

  10. ATLAS: Exceeding all expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    “One year ago it would have been impossible for us to guess that the machine and the experiments could achieve so much so quickly”, says Fabiola Gianotti, ATLAS spokesperson. The whole chain – from collision to data analysis – has worked remarkably well in ATLAS.   The first LHC proton run undoubtedly exceeded expectations for the ATLAS experiment. “ATLAS has worked very well since the beginning. Its overall data-taking efficiency is greater than 90%”, says Fabiola Gianotti. “The quality and maturity of the reconstruction and simulation software turned out to be better than we expected for this initial stage of the experiment. The Grid is a great success, and right from the beginning it has allowed members of the collaboration all over the world to participate in the data analysis in an effective and timely manner, and to deliver physics results very quickly”. In just a few months of data taking, ATLAS has observed t...

  11. Energy providers: customer expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pridham, N.F.

    1997-01-01

    The deregulation of the gas and electric power industries, and how it will impact on customer service and pricing rates was discussed. This paper described the present situation, reviewed core competencies, and outlined future expectations. The bottom line is that major energy consumers are very conscious of energy costs and go to great lengths to keep them under control. At the same time, solutions proposed to reduce energy costs must benefit all classes of consumers, be they industrial, commercial, institutional or residential. Deregulation and competition at an accelerated pace is the most likely answer. This may be forced by external forces such as foreign energy providers who are eager to enter the Canadian energy market. It is also likely that the competition and convergence between gas and electricity is just the beginning, and may well be overshadowed by other deregulated industries as they determine their core competencies

  12. Customer experiences and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morton, C. R.

    1997-01-01

    Customer experiences and expectations from competition and cogeneration in the power industry were reviewed by Charles Morton, Director of Energy at CPC International, by describing Casco's decision to get into cogeneration in the early 1990s in three small corn milling plants in Cardinal, London and Port Colborne, Ontario, mainly as result of the threat of a 40 per cent increase in power prices. He stressed that cost competitiveness of cogeneration is entirely site-specific, but it is generally more attractive in larger facilities that operate 24 hours a day, where grid power is expensive or unreliable. Because it is reliable, cogeneration holds out the prospect of increased production-up time, as well as offering a hedge against higher energy costs, reducing the company's variable costs when incoming revenues fall short of costs, and providing an additional tool in head-to-head competition

  13. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a realtime proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables as ...

  14. A comparative study of expectant parents ' childbirth expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kao, Bi-Chin; Gau, Meei-Ling; Wu, Shian-Feng; Kuo, Bih-Jaw; Lee, Tsorng-Yeh

    2004-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to understand childbirth expectations and differences in childbirth expectations among expectant parents. For convenience sampling, 200 couples willing to participate in this study were chosen from two hospitals in central Taiwan. Inclusion criteria were at least 36 weeks of gestation, aged 18 and above, no prenatal complications, and willing to consent to participate in this study. Instruments used to collect data included basic demographic data and the Childbirth Expectations Questionnaire. Findings of the study revealed that (1) five factors were identified by expectant parents regarding childbirth expectations including the caregiving environment, expectation of labor pain, spousal support, control and participation, and medical and nursing support; (2) no general differences were identified in the childbirth expectations between expectant fathers and expectant mothers; and (3) expectant fathers with a higher socioeconomic status and who had received prenatal (childbirth) education had higher childbirth expectations, whereas mothers displayed no differences in demographic characteristics. The study results may help clinical healthcare providers better understand differences in expectations during labor and birth and childbirth expectations by expectant parents in order to improve the medical and nursing system and promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction for expectant parents.

  15. Inflation perceptions and inflation expectation in South Africa: trends ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Inflation expectations are related to expected future changes .... had to choose from a menu of options with a further response in one instance, while .... 1The marginal effect or partial derivatives depend on the value of x, and the marginal.

  16. Preschool Children's Expectations for Parental Discipline

    OpenAIRE

    Graham, Angie Geertsen

    1998-01-01

    Many factors influence preschool children's expectations for parental discipline. Parent characteristics such as personality, values, social class, and disciplinary methods can affect the expectations children have for parental discipline. Children's ability to understand and interpret parental messages can also influence how they will respond. All of these factors need to be taken into consideration in order for effective communication between parents and children to occur. In this study,...

  17. Expectations from ethics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, P.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. Patricia Fleming, centred her presentation on ethical expectations in regulating safety for future generations. The challenge is to find a just solution, one that provides for a defensible approach to inter-generational equity. The question on equity is about whether we are permitted to treat generations differently and to still meet the demands of justice. And the question must be asked regarding these differences: 'in what ways do they make a moral difference?' She asked the question regarding the exact meaning of the ethical principle 'Radioactive waste shall be managed in such a way that predicted impacts on the health of future generations will not be greater than relevant levels of impact that are acceptable today'. Some countries have proposed different standards for different time periods, either implicitly or explicitly. In doing so, have they preserved our standards of justice or have they abandoned them? Prof. Fleming identified six points to provide with some moral maps which might be used to negotiate our way to a just solution to the disposal of nuclear waste. (author)

  18. Speculative Behavior and Heterogeneous Expectations: Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Cheolbeom Park

    2002-01-01

    This paper demonstrates that the optimal willingness to pay for a stock is the payoff from holding the stock for one period when investors have different expectations, and that the willingness to pay can be represented as the sum of the expected present value of future dividends and the expected present value of the gap between the future equilibrium price and willingness to pay. This speculative behavior based on the awareness of heterogeneity in expectations is supported by the volatility t...

  19. Belief Importance in Expectancy-Value Models of Attitudes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Pligt, J.; de Vries, N.K.

    1998-01-01

    In this study, 312 respondents were asked to indicate their attitude toward smoking and their smoking behavior. Attitudes were assessed by a direct attitude measure (4 items) and a series of 15 belief statements about the possible consequences of smoking. Next, respondents were asked to select the 3

  20. Computing the Expected Value and Variance of Geometric Measures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staals, Frank; Tsirogiannis, Constantinos

    2017-01-01

    distance (MPD), the squared Euclidean distance from the centroid, and the diameter of the minimum enclosing disk. We also describe an efficient (1-e)-approximation algorithm for computing the mean and variance of the mean pairwise distance. We implemented three of our algorithms and we show that our...

  1. Feminine values and happy life-expectancy in nations.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arrindell, W.A.; Veenhoven, R

    2002-01-01

    Cross-national studies suggest that people are happier in feminine nations that are also economically affluent. The first objective of the present study was to replicate this finding with a quality of life index which is more comprehensive than the usual measures of subjective well-being. This

  2. Risk analysis: assessing uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Aven, T. (Terje)

    2008-01-01

    ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2 How to describe risk quantitatively . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.2.1 Description of risk in a financial context . . . . . . . . . 2.2.2 Description...

  3. Expectations from Society

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blowers, A.

    2008-01-01

    Prof. A. Blowers observed that the social context within which radioactive waste management is considered has evolved over time. The early period where radioactive waste was a non-issue was succeeded by a period of intense conflict over solutions. The contemporary context is more consensual, in which solutions are sought that are both technically sound and socially acceptable. Among the major issues is that of inter-generational equity embraced in the question: how long can or should our responsibility to the future extend? He pointed out the differences in timescales. On the one hand, geo-scientific timescales are very long term, emphasizing the issue of how far into the future it is possible to make predictions about repository safety. By contrast, socio cultural timescales are much shorter, focusing on the foreseeable future of one or two generations and raising the issue of how far into the future we should be concerned. He listed. the primary expectations from society which are: safety and security to alleviate undue burdens to future generations and flexibility in order to enable the future generations to have a stake in decision making. The need to reconcile the two had led to a contemporary emphasis on phased geological disposal incorporating retrievability. However, the long timescales for implementation of disposal provided for sufficient flexibility without the need for retrievability. Future generations would inevitably have sold stake in decision making. Prof. A.. Blowers pointed out that society is also concerned with participation in decision making for implementation. The key elements for success are: openness and transparency, staged process, participation, partnership, benefits to enhance the well being of communities and a democratic framework for decision making, including the ratification of key decisions and the right for communities to withdraw from the process up to a predetermined point. This approach for decision making may also have

  4. Expected years ever married

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ryohei Mogi

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the second half of the 20th century, remarkable marriage changes were seen: a great proportion of never married population, high average age at first marriage, and large variance in first marriage timing. Although it is theoretically possible to separate these three elements, disentangling them analytically remains a challenge. Objective: This study's goal is to answer the following questions: Which of the three effects, nonmarriage, delayed marriage, or expansion, has the most impact on nuptiality changes? How does the most influential factor differ by time periods, birth cohorts, and countries? Methods: To quantify nuptiality changes over time, we define the measure 'expected years ever married' (EYEM. We illustrate the use of EYEM, looking at time trends in 15 countries (six countries for cohort analysis and decompose these trends into three components: scale (the changes in the proportion of never married - nonmarriage, location (the changes in timing of first marriage - delayed marriage, and variance (the changes in the standard deviation of first marriage age - expansion. We used population counts by sex, age, and marital status from national statistical offices and the United Nations database. Results: Results show that delayed marriage is the most influential factor on period EYEM's changes, while nonmarriage has recently begun to contribute to the change in North and West Europe and Canada. Period and cohort analysis complement each other. Conclusions: This study introduces a new index of nuptiality and decomposes its change into the contribution of three components: scale, location, and variance. The decomposition steps presented here offer an open possibility for more elaborate parametric marriage models.

  5. Five Values of Giftedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Besjes-de Bock, Karin M.; de Ruyter, Doret J.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes five values attributed to giftedness. The ascription of values to this phenomenon resembles values attached to gifts in gift-giving processes. Whereas gift-giving often includes expectations of reciprocity, each gift possesses a numerical, utility, social, personal, and intrinsic value. Developmental models of giftedness and…

  6. Expectations from implementers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Biurrun, E.; Zuidema, P.

    2008-01-01

    Enrique Biurrun (DBE) presented the expectations from the implementer. He explained that the implementer needs a framework to successfully develop a repository which means the definition of requirements and guidance (for repository system development, analysis, licences, etc.) as well as the decision-making process (stepwise approach, roles of different players, etc.). He also needs a reasonable stability of the regulatory system. The regulatory framework should be developed in a clear, reasonable and consistent manner. In the context of the long duration of the project (100 years) there will be technological progress. In that context E. Biurrun asked what is the meaning of best practice. How can one deal with judgmental issues in a step-wise approach? Regulatory criteria and guidance must deal with the repository system for which an iterative process is necessary where dialogue is needed with the regulator despite the need to maintain his independence. The safety case, which is a periodic documentation of the status of the project, must provide a synthesis of the underlying scientific understanding and evidence and becomes part of the design process through feedback. E. Biurrun pointed out that safety is not calculated or assessed, but designed and built into the repository system (by geological and engineered barriers). He stressed the importance of the operational aspects since the implementer has to build and operate the repository safely. He asked the question: is it 'Ethical' to buy 'peace of mind' of some stakeholders with casualties of the implementer's staff because of mining accidents if the repository is left open during a phase of reversibility. The implementer needs dependable criteria, legal security and investment security. He interpreted the 'Precautionary principle' as meaning 'do it now'. Long-lasting solutions are very uncertain. Will we heave the money and the technology to do it later? He made some reflections regarding the ethical need to

  7. Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Andersen, Otto; Kjøller, Mette

    2004-01-01

    Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.......Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels....

  8. An evaluation of inflation expectations in Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barış Soybilgen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Expectations of inflation play a critical role in the process of price setting in the market. Central banks closely follow developments in inflation expectations to implement a successful monetary policy. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT conducts a survey of experts and decision makers in the financial and real sectors to reveal market expectations and predictions of current and future inflation. The survey is conducted every month. This paper examines the accuracy of these survey predictions using forecast evaluation techniques. We focus on both point and sign accuracy of the predictions. Although point predictions from CBRT surveys are compared with those of autoregressive models, sign predictions are evaluated on their value to a user. We also test the predictions for bias. Unlike the empirical evidence from other economies, our results show that autoregressive models outperform most of inflation expectations in forecasting inflation. This indicates that inflation expectations have poor point forecast accuracies. However, we show that sign predictions for all inflation expectations have value to a user.

  9. Patient (customer) expectations in hospitals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostan, Sedat; Acuner, Taner; Yilmaz, Gökhan

    2007-06-01

    The expectations of patient are one of the determining factors of healthcare service. The purpose of this study is to measure the Patients' Expectations, based on Patient's Rights. This study was done with Likert-Survey in Trabzon population. The analyses showed that the level of the expectations of the patient was high on the factor of receiving information and at an acceptable level on the other factors. Statistical meaningfulness was determined between age, sex, education, health insurance, and the income of the family and the expectations of the patients (pstudy, the current legal regulations have higher standards than the expectations of the patients. The reason that the satisfaction of the patients high level is interpreted due to the fact that the level of the expectation is low. It is suggested that the educational and public awareness studies on the patients' rights must be done in order to increase the expectations of the patients.

  10. Valuing Essays: Essaying Values

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badley, Graham

    2010-01-01

    The essay regularly comes under attack. It is criticised for being rigidly linear rather than flexible and reflective. I first challenge this view by examining reasons why the essay should be valued as an important genre. Secondly, I propose that in using the essay form students and academics necessarily exemplify their own critical values. Essays…

  11. Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dick, Christian D.; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

    2013-01-01

    as well as aggregate macroeconomic uncertainty at the level of individual forecasters. We find that expected term premia are (i) time-varying and reasonably persistent, (ii) strongly related to expectations about future output growth, and (iii) positively affected by uncertainty about future output growth...... and in ation rates. Expectations about real macroeconomic variables seem to matter more than expectations about nominal factors. Additional findings on term structure factors suggest that the level and slope factor capture information related to uncertainty about real and nominal macroeconomic prospects...

  12. Five values of giftedness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Besjes, K.M.; de Ruyter, D.J.

    2011-01-01

    This article describes five values attributed to giftedness. The ascription of values to this phenomenon resembles values attached to gifts in gift-giving processes. Whereas gift-giving often includes expectations of reciprocity, each gift possesses a numerical, utility, social, personal, and

  13. Heterogeneous inflation expectations and learning

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. “Life-experience inflation” has a significant impact on individual expectations, but only for one-year-ahead inflation. Public information is substantially more relevant for longer-horizon expectations. Even controlling for life-experience inflation and public information, idiosyncra...

  14. Expectations on Track? High School Tracking and Adolescent Educational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the role of adaptation in expectation formation processes by analyzing how educational tracking in high schools affects adolescents' educational expectations. I argue that adolescents view track placement as a signal about their academic abilities and respond to it in terms...... of modifying their educational expectations. Applying a difference-in-differences approach to the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988, I find that being placed in an advanced or honors class in high school positively affects adolescents’ expectations, particularly if placement is consistent across...... subjects and if placement contradicts tracking experiences in middle school. My findings support the hypothesis that adolescents adapt their educational expectations to ability signals sent by schools....

  15. A Weakest Pre-Expectation Semantics for Mixed-Sign Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Kaminski, Benjamin Lucien; Katoen, Joost-Pieter

    2017-01-01

    We present a weakest-precondition-style calculus for reasoning about the expected values (pre-expectations) of \\emph{mixed-sign unbounded} random variables after execution of a probabilistic program. The semantics of a while-loop is well-defined as the limit of iteratively applying a functional to a zero-element just as in the traditional weakest pre-expectation calculus, even though a standard least fixed point argument is not applicable in this context. A striking feature of our semantics i...

  16. Expectation-based intelligent control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zak, Michail

    2006-01-01

    New dynamics paradigms-negative diffusion and terminal attractors-are introduced to control noise and chaos. The applied control forces are composed of expectations governed by the associated Fokker-Planck and Liouville equations. The approach is expanded to a general concept of intelligent control via expectations. Relevance to control in livings is emphasized and illustrated by neural nets with mirror neurons

  17. Decomposing change in life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vaupel, James W.; Canudas Romo, Vladimir

    2003-01-01

    We extend Nathan Keyfitz's research on continuous change in life expectancy over time by presenting and proving a new formula for decomposing such change. The formula separates change in life expectancy over time into two terms. The first term captures the general effect of reduction in death rates...... in Sweden and Japan....

  18. Sibling Status Effects: Adult Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baskett, Linda Musun

    1985-01-01

    This study attempted to determine what expectations or beliefs adults might hold about a child based on his or her sibling status alone. Ratings on 50 adjective pairs for each of three sibling status types, only, oldest, and youngest child, were assessed in relation to adult expectations, birth order, and parental status of rater. (Author/DST)

  19. Auctioning access to networks: evidence and expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDaniel, T.

    2003-01-01

    Under very strict assumptions the outcomes that make common auction designs theoretically attractive can be expected to emerge: goods will go to those who value them most and the allocation will maximize revenue for the auctioneer. In network industries such as electricity, gas, telecommunications, rail, and airlines where agents are of different sizes and incumbency these assumptions do not always apply for a number of reasons. For example, the auctioned product may be an intermediate good, bidders are not symmetric with respect to values and information, markets are mixed, and property rights are hard to define. We discuss why it is not straightforward to make theoretical predictions about expected outcomes for these industries and use the British gas industry to discuss the importance of competition and scarcity for auctions of network capacity. (Author)

  20. Economic Loan Loss Provision and Expected Loss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Hlawatsch

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The intention of a loan loss provision is the anticipation of the loan's expected losses by adjusting the book value of the loan. Furthermore, this loan loss provision has to be compared to the expected loss according to Basel II and, in the case of a difference, liable equity has to be adjusted. This however assumes that the loan loss provision and the expected loss are based on a similar economic rationale, which is only valid conditionally in current loan loss provisioning methods according to IFRS. Therefore, differences between loan loss provisions and expected losses should only result from different approaches regarding the parameter estimation within each model and not due to different assumptions regarding the outcome of the model. The provisioning and accounting model developed in this paper overcomes the before-mentioned shortcomings and is consistent with an economic rationale of expected losses. Additionally, this model is based on a close-to-market valuation of the loan that is in favor of the basic idea of IFRS. Suggestions for changes in current accounting and capital requirement rules are provided.

  1. Neural correlates of rhythmic expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Theodore P. Zanto

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Temporal expectancy is thought to play a fundamental role in the perception of rhythm. This review summarizes recent studies that investigated rhythmic expectancy by recording neuroelectric activity with high temporal resolution during the presentation of rhythmic patterns. Prior event-related brain potential (ERP studies have uncovered auditory evoked responses that reflect detection of onsets, offsets, sustains,and abrupt changes in acoustic properties such as frequency, intensity, and spectrum, in addition to indexing higher-order processes such as auditory sensory memory and the violation of expectancy. In our studies of rhythmic expectancy, we measured emitted responses - a type of ERP that occurs when an expected event is omitted from a regular series of stimulus events - in simple rhythms with temporal structures typical of music. Our observations suggest that middle-latency gamma band (20-60 Hz activity (GBA plays an essential role in auditory rhythm processing. Evoked (phase-locked GBA occurs in the presence of physically presented auditory events and reflects the degree of accent. Induced (non-phase-locked GBA reflects temporally precise expectancies for strongly and weakly accented events in sound patterns. Thus far, these findings support theories of rhythm perception that posit temporal expectancies generated by active neural processes.

  2. The Value of Value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Asger

    parts of business ethics given prominence to especially one term, namely `value'. The question that interests me is the following: What does the articulation of ethics and morality in terms of values mean for ethics and morality as such. Or, to put the question in a more fashionably way: What......As a social scientist of ethics and morality, Luhmann has noticed the ethical wave that has recently swept across the western world, and states that this particular kind of wave seems to have a wavelength of about one hundred years (cf. Luhmann 1989: 9 ff.). Even though the frequency...... and the regularity of such a phenomenon is both hard to verify and, if true, difficult to explain, it seems fair to say that since the Enlightenment, an approaching fin-de-siecle has brought an increased interest in matters concerning morality and ethics.1 The present peak has in public-political discourse and some...

  3. Dialysis centers - what to expect

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... kidneys - dialysis centers; Dialysis - what to expect; Renal replacement therapy - dialysis centers; End-stage renal disease - dialysis ... to a tube that connects to the dialysis machine. Your blood will flow through the tube, into ...

  4. Life expectancy in bipolar disorder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kessing, Lars Vedel; Vradi, Eleni; Andersen, Per Kragh

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Life expectancy in patients with bipolar disorder has been reported to be decreased by 11 to 20 years. These calculations are based on data for individuals at the age of 15 years. However, this may be misleading for patients with bipolar disorder in general as most patients have a later...... onset of illness. The aim of the present study was to calculate the remaining life expectancy for patients of different ages with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder. METHODS: Using nationwide registers of all inpatient and outpatient contacts to all psychiatric hospitals in Denmark from 1970 to 2012 we...... remaining life expectancy in bipolar disorder and that of the general population decreased with age, indicating that patients with bipolar disorder start losing life-years during early and mid-adulthood. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy in bipolar disorder is decreased substantially, but less so than previously...

  5. FastStats: Life Expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... What's this? Submit What's this? Submit Button NCHS Home ... expectancy at birth, at 65, and 75 years of age by sex, race and Hispanic origin Health, United States 2016, table 15 [PDF – 9.8 MB] Life ...

  6. Physical activity extends life expectancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisure-time physical activity is associated with longer life expectancy, even at relatively low levels of activity and regardless of body weight, according to a study by a team of researchers led by the NCI.

  7. When feeling bad is expected to be good: emotion regulation and outcome expectancies in social conflicts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamir, Maya; Ford, Brett Q

    2012-08-01

    According to the instrumental approach to emotion regulation, people may want to experience even unpleasant emotions to attain instrumental benefits. Building on value-expectancy models of self-regulation, we tested whether people want to feel bad in certain contexts specifically because they expect such feelings to be useful to them. In two studies, participants were more likely to try to increase their anger before a negotiation when motivated to confront (vs. collaborate with) a negotiation partner. Participants motivated to confront (vs. collaborate with) their partner expected anger to be more useful to them, and this expectation in turn, led them to try to increase their anger before negotiating. The subsequent experience of anger, following random assignment to emotion inductions (Study 1) or engagement in self-selected emotion regulation activities (Study 2), led participants to be more successful at getting others to concede to their demands, demonstrating that emotional preferences have important pragmatic implications.

  8. Subjective expected utility without preferences

    OpenAIRE

    Bouyssou , Denis; Marchant , Thierry

    2011-01-01

    This paper proposes a theory of subjective expected utility based on primitives only involving the fact that an act can be judged either "attractive" or "unattractive". We give conditions implying that there are a utility function on the set of consequences and a probability distribution on the set of states such that attractive acts have a subjective expected utility above some threshold. The numerical representation that is obtained has strong uniqueness properties.

  9. Evolving expectations from international organisations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz Lopez, C.

    2008-01-01

    The author stated that implementation of the geological disposal concept requires a strategy that provides national decision makers with sufficient confidence in the level of long-term safety and protection ultimately achieved. The concept of protection against harm has a broader meaning than radiological protection in terms of risk and dose. It includes the protection of the environment and socio-economic interests of communities. She recognised that a number of countries have established regulatory criteria already, and others are now discussing what constitutes a proper regulatory test and suitable time frame for judging the safety of long-term disposal. Each regulatory programme seeks to define reasonable tests of repository performance, using protection criteria and safety approaches consistent with the culture, values and expectations of the citizens of the country concerned. This means that there are differences in how protection and safety are addressed in national approaches to regulation and in the bases used for that. However, as was recognised in the Cordoba Workshop, it would be important to reach a minimum level of consistency and be able to explain the differences. C. Ruiz-Lopez presented an overview of the development of international guidance from ICRP, IAEA and NEA from the Cordoba workshop up to now, and positions of independent National Advisory Bodies. The evolution of these guidelines over time demonstrates an evolving understanding of long-term implications, with the recognition that dose and risk constraints should not be seen as measures of detriment beyond a few hundred years, the emphasis on sound engineering practices, and the introduction of new concepts and approaches which take into account social and economical aspects (e.g. constrained optimisation, BAT, managerial principles). In its new recommendations, ICRP (draft 2006) recognizes. in particular, that decision making processes may depend on other societal concerns and considers

  10. More Value through Greater Differentiation: Gender Differences in Value Beliefs about Math

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspard, Hanna; Dicke, Anna-Lena; Flunger, Barbara; Schreier, Brigitte; Häfner, Isabelle; Trautwein, Ulrich; Nagengast, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983) is a prominent approach to explaining gender differences in math-related academic choices, with value beliefs acting as an important explanatory factor. Expectancy-value theory defines 4 value components: intrinsic value, attainment value, utility value, and cost. The present study followed up on…

  11. The Prediction Value

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

  12. Broken Expectations: Violation of Expectancies, Not Novelty, Captures Auditory Attention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vachon, Francois; Hughes, Robert W.; Jones, Dylan M.

    2012-01-01

    The role of memory in behavioral distraction by auditory attentional capture was investigated: We examined whether capture is a product of the novelty of the capturing event (i.e., the absence of a recent memory for the event) or its violation of learned expectancies on the basis of a memory for an event structure. Attentional capture--indicated…

  13. Consumer's inflation expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Ormonde Teixeira

    Full Text Available Abstract This paper investigates what are the main components of consumer's inflation expectations. We combine the FGV's Consumer Survey with the indices of inflation (IPCA and government regulated prices, professional forecasts disclosed in the Focus report, and media data which we crawl from one of the biggest and most important Brazilian newspapers, Folha de São Paulo, to determine what factors are responsible for and improve consumer's forecast accuracy. We found gender, age and city of residence as major elements when analyzing micro-data. Aggregate data shows the past inflation as an important trigger in the formation of consumers' expectations and professional forecasts as negligible. Moreover, the media plays a significant role, accounting not only for the expectations' formation but for a better understanding of actual inflation as well.

  14. Test expectancy affects metacomprehension accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiede, Keith W; Wiley, Jennifer; Griffin, Thomas D

    2011-06-01

    Theory suggests that the accuracy of metacognitive monitoring is affected by the cues used to judge learning. Researchers have improved monitoring accuracy by directing attention to more appropriate cues; however, this is the first study to more directly point students to more appropriate cues using instructions regarding tests and practice tests. The purpose of the present study was to examine whether the accuracy metacognitive monitoring was affected by the nature of the test expected. Students (N= 59) were randomly assigned to one of two test expectancy groups (memory vs. inference). Then after reading texts, judging learning, completed both memory and inference tests. Test performance and monitoring accuracy were superior when students received the kind of test they had been led to expect rather than the unexpected test. Tests influence students' perceptions of what constitutes learning. Our findings suggest that this could affect how students prepare for tests and how they monitoring their own learning. ©2010 The British Psychological Society.

  15. Expectations for a scientific collaboratory

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sonnenwald, Diane H.

    2003-01-01

    In the past decade, a number of scientific collaboratories have emerged, yet adoption of scientific collaboratories remains limited. Meeting expectations is one factor that influences adoption of innovations, including scientific collaboratories. This paper investigates expectations scientists have...... with respect to scientific collaboratories. Interviews were conducted with 17 scientists who work in a variety of settings and have a range of experience conducting and managing scientific research. Results indicate that scientists expect a collaboratory to: support their strategic plans; facilitate management...... of the scientific process; have a positive or neutral impact on scientific outcomes; provide advantages and disadvantages for scientific task execution; and provide personal conveniences when collaborating across distances. These results both confirm existing knowledge and raise new issues for the design...

  16. Disconfirmed hedonic expectations produce perceptual contrast, not assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zellner, Debra A; Strickhouser, Dinah; Tornow, Carina E

    2004-01-01

    In studies of hedonic ratings, contrast is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through the presentation of context stimuli, whereas assimilation is the usual result when expectations about test stimuli are produced through labeling, advertising, or the relaying of information to the subject about the test stimuli. Both procedures produce expectations that are subsequently violated, but the outcomes are different. The present studies demonstrate that both assimilation and contrast can occur even when expectations are produced by verbal labels and the degree of violation of the expectation is held constant. One factor determining whether assimilation or contrast occurs appears to be the certainty of the expectation. Expectations that convey certainty are produced by methods that lead to social influence on subjects' ratings, producing assimilation. When social influence is not a factor and subjects give judgments influenced only by the perceived hedonic value of the stimulus, contrast is the result.

  17. Academic Expectations as Sources of Stress in Asian Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, Joyce Beiyu; Yates, Shirley

    2011-01-01

    Education is highly valued in Confucian Heritage Culture (CHC) countries such as China, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan and Korea but the expectations of parents, teachers and students themselves to excel academically can also be a source of intense stress for many students. The "Academic Expectations Stress Inventory" (AESI),…

  18. Expectation of aplastic anemia following radiotherapy for malignancy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kitabatake, T.; Sakai, K.; Saito, A.

    1978-01-01

    In Japan after 1969, 11 cases of aplastic anemia following radiotherapy for malignant disease were detected. The population at risk in irradiated patients was estimated at 674,664 man-years. The expected cases of aplastic anemia in this population were calculated as 10.1. There is no statistically significant difference between the expected and the observed values

  19. Career Expectations of Accounting Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elam, Dennis; Mendez, Francis

    2010-01-01

    The demographic make-up of accounting students is dramatically changing. This study sets out to measure how well the profession is ready to accommodate what may be very different needs and expectations of this new generation of students. Non-traditional students are becoming more and more of a tradition in the current college classroom.…

  20. Primary expectations of secondary metabolites

    Science.gov (United States)

    My program examines the plant secondary metabolites (i.e. phenolics) important for human health, and which impart the organoleptic properties that are quality indicators for fresh and processed foods. Consumer expectations such as appearance, taste, or texture influence their purchasing decisions; a...

  1. Expected utility with lower probabilities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte

    1994-01-01

    An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory...

  2. Privacy Expectations in Online Contexts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pure, Rebekah Abigail

    2013-01-01

    Advances in digital networked communication technology over the last two decades have brought the issue of personal privacy into sharper focus within contemporary public discourse. In this dissertation, I explain the Fourth Amendment and the role that privacy expectations play in the constitutional protection of personal privacy generally, and…

  3. Beyond Expected Utility in the Economics of Health and Longevity

    OpenAIRE

    Cordoba, Juan Carlos; Ripoll, Marla

    2013-01-01

    We document various limitations of the expected utility model for the study of health and longevity. The model assumes individuals are indifferent between early and late resolution of uncertainty. This assumption gives rise to predictions regarding the economic value of life that are inconsistent with relevant evidence. For example, poor individuals would price life below the present value of foregone income or even negatively. We show that a non-expected utility model disentangling intertemp...

  4. Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillen, Montserrat; Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni

    2005-10-01

    Knowledge of trends in life expectancy is of major importance for policy planning. It is also a key indicator for assessing future development of life insurance products, substantiality of existing retirement schemes, and long-term care for the elderly. This article examines the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates. We study this decomposition by using the Lee and Carter model. In particular, we fit the Poisson log-bilinear version of this model proposed by Wilmoth and Brouhns et al. to historical (1975-1998) Spanish mortality rates. In addition, by using the model introduced by Wilmoth and Valkonen we analyze mortality-gender differentials for accidental and natural rates. We present aggregated life expectancy forecasts compared with those constructed using nondecomposed mortality rates.

  5. The construction of normal expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quitzau, Maj-Britt; Røpke, Inge

    2008-01-01

    The gradual upward changes of standards in normal everyday life have significant environmental implications, and it is therefore important to study how these changes come about. The intention of the article is to analyze the social construction of normal expectations through a case study. The case...... concerns the present boom in bathroom renovations in Denmark, which offers an excellent opportunity to study the interplay between a wide variety of consumption drivers and social changes pointing toward long-term changes of normal expectations regarding bathroom standards. The study is problemoriented...... and transdisciplinary and draws on a wide range of sociological, anthropological, and economic theories. The empirical basis comprises a combination of statistics, a review of magazine and media coverage, visits to exhibitions, and qualitative interviews. A variety of consumption drivers are identified. Among...

  6. FRANCHISE EXPECTATIONS: CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN

    OpenAIRE

    Raissa Kaziyeva

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of the article is to provide a critical review of franchising development in Kazakhstan by focusing on the relationship between the franchisor and the franchisee. We have conducted extensive research and communicated with lots of potential and existing Kazakhstani franchisors and franchisees, operating since 2003. Our findings show that the process of signing franchising agreements is quite challenging in Kazakhstan.  Thorough investigation of the differences between expectations ...

  7. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magnus, Jan R.; Peresetsky, Anatoly A.

    2018-01-01

    Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (over)confidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (over)confidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly. PMID:29375449

  8. Life Expectancy of Brazilian Neurosurgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Botelho, Ricardo Vieira; Jardim Miranda, Bárbara Cristina; Nishikuni, Koshiro; Waisberg, Jaques

    2018-06-01

    Life expectancy (LE) refers to the number of years that an individual is expected to survive. Emphasis is frequently placed on the relationship between LE and the conditions under which a population lives, but fewer studies have investigated the relationship between stress factors associated with specific professions and their effects on LE. The aim of this study is to evaluate Brazilian neurosurgeons' life expectancies (BNLEs) and compare them with those of physicians (both Brazilian and foreign) from other fields, as well as with Brazilian nondoctors. The Brazilian Society of Neurosurgery death registry was used to obtain data that compared LEs from non-neurosurgeon physicians, as described in the national and international literature. BNLEs were also compared with the LEs of Brazilian citizens. Fifty-one neurosurgeons died between 2009 and 2016. All were males. The mean age at death was 68.31 ± 17.71 years. Among all-cause mortality, the breakdown was 20% cardiovascular diseases, 39% malignancies, 10% external factors, 6% gastrointestinal disorders, 12% neurologic illnesses, and 14% unknown causes. BNLE was shorter than LE of male Brazilian citizens. LE was similar among neurosurgeons and other doctors but shorter compared with Brazilian citizens. Further research is needed to provide data that can add to and confirm these results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Grade Expectations: Rationality and Overconfidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan R. Magnus

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Confidence and overconfidence are essential aspects of human nature, but measuring (overconfidence is not easy. Our approach is to consider students' forecasts of their exam grades. Part of a student's grade expectation is based on the student's previous academic achievements; what remains can be interpreted as (overconfidence. Our results are based on a sample of about 500 second-year undergraduate students enrolled in a statistics course in Moscow. The course contains three exams and each student produces a forecast for each of the three exams. Our models allow us to estimate overconfidence quantitatively. Using these models we find that students' expectations are not rational and that most students are overconfident, in agreement with the general literature. Less obvious is that overconfidence helps: given the same academic achievement students with larger confidence obtain higher exam grades. Female students are less overconfident than male students, their forecasts are more rational, and they are also faster learners in the sense that they adjust their expectations more rapidly.

  10. Youth expectations in job search in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlović Dejana

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Youth on the labour market in developing countries such as Serbia, Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina are facing numerous difficulties, with almost a half of their population aged between 15 -24 not working or working in informal sector. The reasons may be numerous. The financial crisis and the low economic development of the country have had negative impact on young generations and this resulted in lack of sufficient jobs vacancies. In addition, the reasons for their slow entry into the labour market could be the lack of experience, low education among young people etc. Although employers have certain expectations of young people, once they enter the labour market young people have certain values that are important for them when choosing a job. The paper presents the research on the expectations of young people entering labour market in the Republic of Serbia. According to survey results based on analyses of youth' expectations and preferences in Serbia regarding potential work conditions, authors have by the means of factor analysis identified which groups of factors are the most important for young people ages between 16 and 30 in job finding in Serbia. The results showed that there is a significance of three questions: 1. Job does not affect the private life; 2. Work resources are provided; 3. Work is safe. In conclusion, if a company ensures that these three issues are regulated, it will more likely employ young professionals.

  11. Conditional expectations associated with quantum states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Niestegge, Gerd

    2005-01-01

    An extension of the conditional expectations (those under a given subalgebra of events and not the simple ones under a single event) from the classical to the quantum case is presented. In the classical case, the conditional expectations always exist; in the quantum case, however, they exist only if a certain weak compatibility criterion is satisfied. This compatibility criterion was introduced among others in a recent paper by the author. Then, state-independent conditional expectations and quantum Markov processes are studied. A classical Markov process is a probability measure, together with a system of random variables, satisfying the Markov property and can equivalently be described by a system of Markovian kernels (often forming a semigroup). This equivalence is partly extended to quantum probabilities. It is shown that a dynamical (semi)group can be derived from a given system of quantum observables satisfying the Markov property, and the group generators are studied. The results are presented in the framework of Jordan operator algebras, and a very general type of observables (including the usual real-valued observables or self-adjoint operators) is considered

  12. On the correspondence between CAL and lagged cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michel Guillot

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available It has been established that under certain mortality assumptions, the current value of the Cross-sectional Average length of Life (CAL is equal to the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy. This correspondence is important, because the life expectancy for the cohort currently reaching its life expectancy, or lagged cohort life expectancy (LCLE, has been discussed in the tempo literature as a summary mortality measure of substantive interest. In this paper, we build on previous work by evaluating the extent to which the correspondence holds in actual populations. We also discuss the implications of the CAL-LCLE correspondence (or lack thereof for using CAL as a measure of cohort life expectancy, and for understanding the connection between CAL, LCLE, and underlying period mortality conditions.

  13. A Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies in Airline Pilots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cortes, Antonio I.

    The Theory of False Cognitive Expectancies was developed by studying high reliability flight operations. Airline pilots depend extensively on cognitive expectancies to perceive, understand, and predict actions and events. Out of 1,363 incident reports submitted by airline pilots to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Reporting System over a year's time, 110 reports were found to contain evidence of 127 false cognitive expectancies in pilots. A comprehensive taxonomy was developed with six categories of interest. The dataset of 127 false expectancies was used to initially code tentative taxon values for each category. Intermediate coding through constant comparative analysis completed the taxonomy. The taxonomy was used for the advanced coding of chronological context-dependent visualizations of expectancy factors, known as strands, which depict the major factors in the creation and propagation of each expectancy. Strands were mapped into common networks to detect highly represented expectancy processes. Theoretical integration established 11 sources of false expectancies, the most common expectancy errors, and those conspicuous factors worthy of future study. The most prevalent source of false cognitive expectancies within the dataset was determined to be unconscious individual modeling based on past events. Integrative analyses also revealed relationships between expectancies and flight deck automation, unresolved discrepancies, and levels of situation awareness. Particularly noteworthy were the findings that false expectancies can combine in three possible permutations to diminish situation awareness and examples of how false expectancies can be unwittingly transmitted from one person to another. The theory resulting from this research can enhance the error coding process used during aircraft line oriented safety audits, lays the foundation for developing expectancy management training programs, and will allow researchers to proffer

  14. Public Values

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck Jørgensen, Torben; Rutgers, Mark R.

    2015-01-01

    administration is approached in terms of processes guided or restricted by public values and as public value creating: public management and public policy-making are both concerned with establishing, following and realizing public values. To study public values a broad perspective is needed. The article suggest......This article provides the introduction to a symposium on contemporary public values research. It is argued that the contribution to this symposium represent a Public Values Perspective, distinct from other specific lines of research that also use public value as a core concept. Public...... a research agenda for this encompasing kind of public values research. Finally the contributions to the symposium are introduced....

  15. Career Expectations and Perceptions of Part-Time MBA Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fish, Lynn A.; Fish, Lauren A.

    2010-01-01

    In the U.S., part-time MBA students regard work/life balance as the critical factor that drives career expectations and perceptions. Job aspects and benefits/compensation closely follow in importance, while employee relations are valued less. Within work/life balance, students value job location, travel time, and telecommuting. Promotional…

  16. Monitoring treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator using the EXPECT-ICD scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Habibovic, Mirela; Pedersen, Susanne S.; van den Broek, Krista C

    2014-01-01

    AIMS: Patient treatment expectations may affect cardiac outcomes; however, till date, no validated instruments have been developed to monitor treatment expectations in patients with an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD). This study evaluates the predictive value of the newly developed 10...... with a two-factor model involving both negative (α = 0.84) and positive expectations (α = 0.77) with a score range of 0-20 for each factor. Negative treatment expectations were associated with higher levels of anxiety (β = 0.443; P ...-item EXPECtations Towards ICD therapy (EXPECT-ICD) in relation to anxiety, depression, and ICD related concerns 3 months post-implant.METHODS AND RESULTS: Consecutive implanted ICD patients were included as part of the WEB-based distress management programme for ICD patients (WEBCARE) trial from six...

  17. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-05-15

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety.

  18. Regulatory Expectations for Safety Culture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jung, Su Jin; Oh, Jang Jin; Choi, Young Sung

    2014-01-01

    The oversight of licensee's safety culture becomes an important issue that attracts great public and political concerns recently in Korea. Beginning from the intended violation of rules, a series of corruptions, documents forgery and disclosure of wrong-doings made the public think that the whole mindset of nuclear workers has been inadequate. Thus, they are demanding that safety culture shall be improved and that regulatory body shall play more roles and responsibilities for the improvements and oversight for them. This paper introduces, as an effort of regulatory side, recent changes in the role of regulators in safety culture, regulatory expectations on the desired status of licensee's safety culture, the pilot inspection program for safety culture and research activity for the development of oversight system. After the Fukushima accident in Japan 2011, many critics has searched for cultural factors that caused the unacceptable negligence pervaded in Japan nuclear society and the renewed emphasis has been placed on rebuilding safety culture by operators, regulators, and relevant institutions globally. Significant progress has been made in how to approach safety culture and led to a new perspective different from the existing normative assessment method both in operators and regulatory side. Regulatory expectations and oversight of them are based on such a new holistic concept for human, organizational and cultural elements to maintain and strengthen the integrity of defense in depth and consequently nuclear safety

  19. Motivational beliefs, values, and goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eccles, Jacquelynne S; Wigfield, Allan

    2002-01-01

    This chapter reviews the recent research on motivation, beliefs, values, and goals, focusing on developmental and educational psychology. The authors divide the chapter into four major sections: theories focused on expectancies for success (self-efficacy theory and control theory), theories focused on task value (theories focused on intrinsic motivation, self-determination, flow, interest, and goals), theories that integrate expectancies and values (attribution theory, the expectancy-value models of Eccles et al., Feather, and Heckhausen, and self-worth theory), and theories integrating motivation and cognition (social cognitive theories of self-regulation and motivation, the work by Winne & Marx, Borkowski et al., Pintrich et al., and theories of motivation and volition). The authors end the chapter with a discussion of how to integrate theories of self-regulation and expectancy-value models of motivation and suggest new directions for future research.

  20. Reservation wages, expected wages and unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, S; Taylor, K

    2013-01-01

    We model unemployment duration, reservation and expected wages simultaneously for individuals not in work, where wage expectations are identified via an exogenous policy shock. The policy shock increased expected wages, which were found to be positively associated with reservation wages.

  1. When expectation confounds iconic memory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmann, Talis; Aru, Jaan

    2016-10-01

    In response to the methodological criticism (Bachmann & Aru, 2015) of the interpretation of their earlier experimental results (Mack, Erol, & Clarke, 2015) Mack, Erol, Clarke, and Bert (2016) presented new results that they interpret again in favor of the stance that an attention-free phenomenal iconic store does not exist. Here we once more question their conclusions. When their subjects were unexpectedly asked to report the letters instead of the post-cued circles in the 101th trial where letters were actually absent, they likely failed to see the empty display area because prior experience with letters in the preceding trials produced expectancy based illusory experience of letter-like objects. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Great expectations: large wind turbines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Vries, E.

    2001-01-01

    This article focuses on wind turbine product development, and traces the background to wind turbines from the first generation 1.5 MW machines in 1995-6, plans for the second generation 3-5 MW class turbines to meet the expected boom in offshore wind projects, to the anticipated installation of a 4.5 MW turbine, and offshore wind projects planned for 2000-2002. The switch by the market leader Vestas to variable speed operation in 2000, the new product development and marketing strategy taken by the German Pro + Pro consultancy in their design of a 1.5 MW variable speed pitch control concept, the possible limiting of the size of turbines due to logistical difficulties, opportunities offered by air ships for large turbines, and the commissioning of offshore wind farms are discussed. Details of some 2-5 MW offshore wind turbine design specifications are tabulated

  3. Customer's potential value: The role of learning

    OpenAIRE

    Komulainen, Hanna; Mainela, Tuija; Tähtinen, Jaana

    2013-01-01

    Current views on value creation emphasize the role of the customer, mutual investments, and value co-creation. Nevertheless, at present the customer-focused research concentrates on value expectations and value experiences as outcomes but disregards the analysis of potential value that is dependent on the customer's activity and learning in the process. The present study explores customer perceived value as a multidimensional phenomenon incorporating expected, realized, and potential dimensio...

  4. The Polyphony of Values and the Value of Polyphony

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Lars Thøger; Morsing, Mette; Thyssen, Ole

    2015-01-01

    While human communication is inherently symbolic and thus potentially vague, ambiguous and polyphonic, there is a growing emphasis on certainty, accuracy and consistency in everything contemporary organizations say and do. Organizational messages about corporate values, in particular, are expected...

  5. Cultural Expectations and Parental Involvement in Early Literacy

    OpenAIRE

    Meredith, Stephens; Richard, Blight

    2003-01-01

    This study investigates the involvement of parents in early literacy in Japanese and Australian primary schools. While both schools valued support from parents in the education process, different cultural expectations are evident in each system. A number of significant areas are discussed, including traditional domestic situations in Japan, changing work cultures in Australia, education and maternal duties, higher expectations in Japan, parents supporting homework activities, parents supporti...

  6. Testing exact rational expectations in cointegrated vector autoregressive models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders Rygh

    1999-01-01

    This paper considers the testing of restrictions implied by rational expectations hypotheses in a cointegrated vector autoregressive model for I(1) variables. If the rational expectations involve one-step-ahead observations only and the coefficients are known, an explicit parameterization...... of the restrictions is found, and the maximum-likelihood estimator is derived by regression and reduced rank regression. An application is given to a present value model....

  7. [Expectations and patient satisfaction in hospitals: construction and application of an expectation-based experience typology and its use in the management of quality and expectations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gehrlach, Christoph; Güntert, Bernhard

    2015-01-01

    Patient satisfaction (PS) surveys are frequently used evaluation methods to show performance from the customer's view. This approach has some fundamental deficits, especially with respect to theory, methodology and usage. Because of the significant theoretical value of the expectation confirmation/disconfirmation concept in the development of PS, an expectation-based experience typology has been developed and tested to check whether this approach could be a theoretical and practical alternative to the survey of PS. Due to the mainly cognitive-rational process of comparison between expectations and expectation fulfilment, it is easier to make changes in this stage of the process than in the subsequent stage of the development of PS that is mainly based on emotional-affective processes. The paper contains a literature review of the common concept of PS and its causal and influencing factors. Based on the theoretical part of this study, an expectation-based experience typology was developed. In the next step, the typology was subjected to exploratory testing, based on two patient surveys. In some parts of the tested typology explorative differences could be found between hospitals. Despite this rather more complex and unusual approach to expectation-based experience typology, this concept offers the chance to change conditions not only retrospectively (based on data), but also in a prospective way in terms of a "management of expectations". Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  8. Expectations and Experiences of Information Literacy Instruction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saga Pohjola-Ahlin

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In May 2016, 48 third semester undergraduate students enrolled in the physiotherapy program at Karolinska Institutet in Sweden were given three sets of questionnaires; before the information literacy instruction (ILI started, at the end of the first session, and a week after, at the end of the second and last session. The aim of this small-scale pilot study was to shed some light on students’ motivation to attend ILI, how they value the sessions afterwards and how they assess their learning outcome. Furthermore, it was an attempt to do a "students’ user experience study” in a pedagogical setting, with the intention to evaluate and improve teaching in ILI to meet student expectations. The average response rate for the three questionnaires was 92%. The results show that students’ expectations were similar to the actual content of ILI, and that the students were satisfied with their own learning outcome. Both motivation and the sense of relevance got higher scores after students attended ILI. Motivation rose from 7,4 to 8,12 out of 10. This is positive because a high level of motivation often improves the learning outcome (Schunk, 2012. When asked which areas most needed improvement in order to further enhance their learning outcome, the most common responses were “the pedagogy” and “my own achievement”. It would be interesting to start collaborating with a group of students in order to explore new methods and learning activities.

  9. Expectations and disappointments of industrial innovations

    CERN Document Server

    Halevi, Gideon

    2017-01-01

    The Integrated Manufacturing System (IMS), Group Technology, Numerical Control, and Computer Aided Design (CAD) were four outstanding innovations that were one-time milestones of scientific industrial management. This book describes the expectations and disappointments of the common pitfalls of these ingenious ideas, which leads to understanding of their gradual disappearing, and proposes a way to restore these methods for long term utility and value. The first three innovations dominated the industry till the mid-1970s. Surprisingly, the reason for them being replaced is the same: research of the “routine” was misleading regardless of its ingenuity. In the fourth case, CAD does not support CAPP (Computer Aided Process Planning) and thus Numerical Control could no longer support developments of a system such as a flexible and automated factory. However, they incorporate many features in a specific resource instead within a manufacturing system. CAD technology and machining centers remain remarkable as a s...

  10. The Government's expectations for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fraser, Lord.

    1997-01-01

    After the thorough review of nuclear policy in 1994/95, the United Kingdom government remains committed to the view that there is no justification for, and no foreseeable to return to the large-scale public funding of new nuclear power plants. The nuclear industry's relationships with government has changed in some respects as a consequence of the privatisation of British Energy and AEA (Technology). This does not, however, mean a loss of government interest and involvement in other respects. There will be a continuing close interest in the safety, security and prosperity of the industry; the regulatory framework for the industry will be as rigorous as ever. Public expectation that nuclear liabilities will be managed safely and effectively is a responsibility both for government and the industry. Internationally, nuclear developments present considerable challenges and opportunities which require the government and the industry to work closely together in order to maximise the value of Britain's contribution. (UK)

  11. Values Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-10-01

    that individualistic employees in individualistic organizations and collectivistic employees in collectivistic organizations show greater job...with Parsons’ causal assumption, in the nineties values were recognized on top of the cultural control –values control norms which in turn control...determines intention which may end in behavior. 7 Defining Human Values Cross- cultural theories on values emerged in the 80s developed by three main

  12. Educational Expectations and Media Cultures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Missomelius

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This article investigates themedia-supported educational resources that arecurrently under discussion, such as OERs and MOOCs. Considering the discursive connection between these formats, which is couched in terms of educational freedom and openness, the article’sthesis is that these are expectations which are placed on the media technologies themselves, andthen transferred to learning scenarios. To this end, the article will pursue such questions as: What are the learners, learning materials and learning scenarios allegedly free from or free for? What obstructive configurations should be omitted? To what extent are these characteristics which are of a nature to guaranteelearning processes in the context of lifelong learning or can these characteristics better be attributed to the media technologies themselves and the ways in which they are used? What advantages or new accentuations are promised by proponents of theeducation supplied by media technology? Which discourses provide sustenance for such implied “post-typographic educational ideals” (Giesecke 2001 and Lemke 1998? The importance to learners, teachers and decision-makers at educational institutions of being well informed as far as media is concerned is becoming increasingly apparent.

  13. CMS: Beyond all possible expectations

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN Bulletin

    2010-01-01

    After having retraced the entire Standard Model up to the Top, the CMS collaboration is ready to go further and continue the success of what Guido Tonelli – its spokesperson – defines as a ‘magic year’. Things evolve fast at CMS, but scientists have taken up the challenge and are ready for the future.   ‘Enthusiasm’ is the word that best describes the feeling one gets when talking to Guido Tonelli. “In just a few months we have rediscovered the Standard Model and have gone even further by producing new results for cross-sections, placing new limits on the creation of heavy masses, making studies on the excited states of quarks, and seeking new resonances. We could not have expected so much such a short space of time. It’s fantastic”, he says. “We went through the learning phase very smoothly. Our detector was very quickly ready to do real physics and we were able to start to produce results almost ...

  14. Response Expectancy and the Placebo Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsch, Irving

    2018-01-01

    In this chapter, I review basic tenets of response expectancy theory (Kirsch, 1985), beginning with the important distinction between response expectancies and stimulus expectancies. Although both can affect experience, the effects of response expectancies are stronger and more resistant to extinction than those of stimulus expectancies. Further, response expectancies are especially important to understanding placebo effects. The response expectancy framework is consistent with and has been amplified by the Bayesian model of predictive coding. Clinical implications of these phenomena are exemplified. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters

    OpenAIRE

    Christopher D Carroll

    2002-01-01

    Economists have long emphasized the importance of expectations in determining macroeconomic outcomes Yet there has been almost no recent effort to model actual empirical expectations data; instead macroeconomists usually simply assume expectations are rational This paper shows that while empirical household expectations are not rational in the usual sense expectational dynamics are well captured by a model in which households' views derive from news reports of the views of professional foreca...

  16. Expectations of millennial nurse graduates transitioning into practice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Diane Randall

    2013-01-01

    Identified as Millennials, nurses born after 1980 are anticipated to redefine the employer-employee relationship as one based on the employee's wants and needs. The purpose of this study is to portray the expectations of Millennial student nurses immediately before graduation. Understanding these expectations may provide insight for leaders who are responsible for crafting a successful transition experience. Successful transition and decreased turnover are important elements of cost management for the nursing enterprise. A qualitative descriptive design was used to collect data from 14 students enrolled in a traditional BSN academic nursing program approximately 2 months prior to graduation. Upon completion of private, confidential semistructured interviews, data were transcribed, coded, and analyzed. Demographic data were compiled and interview data summarized according to identified themes. Three overarching themes emerged: the expectation that transition would be stressful, the expectation that there would be a safety net of support, and the expectation to be valued and respected as a professional. Revealing was the expectation of supportive relationships and a collaborative approach to patient care. Failure to meet those expectations may result in turnover as Millennials seek opportunities that meet their expectations.

  17. Implementing Target Value Design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alves, Thais da C L; Lichtig, Will; Rybkowski, Zofia K

    2017-04-01

    An alternative to the traditional way of designing projects is the process of target value design (TVD), which takes different departure points to start the design process. The TVD process starts with the client defining an allowable cost that needs to be met by the design and construction teams. An expected cost in the TVD process is defined through multiple interactions between multiple stakeholders who define wishes and others who define ways of achieving these wishes. Finally, a target cost is defined based on the expected profit the design and construction teams are expecting to make. TVD follows a series of continuous improvement efforts aimed at reaching the desired goals for the project and its associated target value cost. The process takes advantage of rapid cycles of suggestions, analyses, and implementation that starts with the definition of value for the client. In the traditional design process, the goal is to identify user preferences and find solutions that meet the needs of the client's expressed preferences. In the lean design process, the goal is to educate users about their values and advocate for a better facility over the long run; this way owners can help contractors and designers to identify better solutions. This article aims to inform the healthcare community about tools and techniques commonly used during the TVD process and how they can be used to educate and support project participants in developing better solutions to meet their needs now as well as in the future.

  18. Default values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    In making calculations for the purposes of radiation protection, numerical values for parameters used in the calculations are selected. In some cases, data directly applicable to the set of conditions for which the calculations are to be made are unavailable. Therefore, the selection of the values for these parameters may be based on more general data available from the literature or other sources. These values may be referred to as 'default values', that is, values used in default of those based on directly applicable data. The following policy will be applied by Atomic Energy Control Board (AECB) staff in reviewing the radiation protection aspects of submissions associated with licensing, in participating with other organizations in the development of codes and standards, and in any other work which relies to some extent on using default values

  19. Reconstructing weak values without weak measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johansen, Lars M.

    2007-01-01

    I propose a scheme for reconstructing the weak value of an observable without the need for weak measurements. The post-selection in weak measurements is replaced by an initial projector measurement. The observable can be measured using any form of interaction, including projective measurements. The reconstruction is effected by measuring the change in the expectation value of the observable due to the projector measurement. The weak value may take nonclassical values if the projector measurement disturbs the expectation value of the observable

  20. Multicultural Differences in Women's Expectations of Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Marianne F

    2016-01-01

    This review surveyed qualitative and quantitative studies to explore the expectations around birth that are held by women from different cultures. These studies are grouped according to expectations of personal control expectations of support from partner/others/family; expectations of carel behavior from providers such as nurses, doctors, and/or midwives; expectations about the health of the baby; and expectations about pain in childbirth. Discussed are the findings and the role that Western culture in medicine, power and privilege are noted in providing care to these women.

  1. Deep Value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Asness, Clifford S.; Liew, John M.; Pedersen, Lasse Heje

    premium. Following these episodes, the value strategy has (1) high average returns; (2) low market betas, but high betas to a global value factor; (3) deteriorating fundamentals; (4) negative news sentiment; (5) selling pressure; (6) increased limits to arbitrage; and (7) increased arbitrage activity...

  2. Forestland values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    John H. Beuter; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    This issue of the journal of Forestry is devoted to articles about forestland values. Viewed broadly, natural resources and humans are our two basic resources. An expression of the importance of land as a foundation for forest ecosystems is forestland value. Our attitudes about land and the forest ecosystems that they support have changed considerably in recent years....

  3. Values and entrepreneurship

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Urbanová

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the importance of values ​​in business development. The authors remind M. Weber and his study about the impact of Protestantism on business development. After defining the concept of value, attention is focused on the theory of R.K. Merton, T. Parsons, R. Inglehart. Using the critical sociological approach the authors reflect on the research strategies in the area of values. In this context is mentioned for example the issue of ideal and real cultures – ideal cultures consist of norms and values to which people officially claim, e.g. values of Christian civilization, values of Central Europe; so-called universal values are very often (or should be a base for legal norms. Real cultures represent a pattern according to which people act and regard it socially acceptable. In this context is also discussed the question of individualism without responsibility that is typical for current western society as well as for the Czech society of last decades. Value orientations are patterns for expected roles, culturally defined types of human relations, expressing the basic attitudes in social interaction. The level of prevailing business values is visible also in many multinational corporations espousing the concept of corporate social responsibility within their promotion but violating it in reality.

  4. The Value of Value Sets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sløk-Madsen, Stefan Kirkegaard; Christensen, Jesper

    The world over classrooms in business schools are being taught that corporate values can impact performance. The argument is typically that culture matter more than strategy plans and culture can be influenced and indeed changed by a shared corporate value set. While the claim seems intuitively a...... a unique contribution to the effects of investment in shared company values, and to whether agent rationality can be fundamentally changed by committed organizational efforts....

  5. Consumers' Attitudes and Their Inflation Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ehrmann, Michael; Pfajfar, Damjan; Santoro, Emiliano

    2017-01-01

    situation, their purchasing attitudes, and their expectations about the macroeconomy. Respondents with current or expected financial difficulties and those with pessimistic attitudes about major purchases, income developments, or unemployment have a stronger upward bias than other households. However...

  6. Experiments on Expectations in Macroeconomics and Finance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Assenza, Tiziana; Bao, Te; Hommes, Cars; Massaro, Domenico; Duffy, John

    Expectations play a crucial role in finance, macroeconomics, monetary economics, and fiscal policy. In the last decade a rapidly increasing number of laboratory experiments have been performed to study individual expectation formation, the interactions of individual forecasting rules, and the

  7. Interest rate rules with heterogeneous expectations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anufriev, M.; Assenza, T.; Hommes, C.; Massaro, D.

    2011-01-01

    The recent macroeconomic literature stresses the importance of managing heterogeneous expectations in the formulation of monetary policy. We use a simple frictionless DSGE model to investigate inflation dynamics under alternative interest rate rules when agents have heterogeneous expectations and

  8. User apprehensions and expectations in healthcare IS implementations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Magnus Rotvit Perlt; Ejnefjäll, Thomas

    We report on the initial findings from a qualitative user expectations study of a Patient Data Management System implementation in an Intensive Care Unit in a Swedish hospital. By drawing on grounded theory we take an open focus on the concepts of fears and beliefs and find that specifically...... the users’ stories of their expectations towards the implementation project seem to influence their apprehensions on similar terms as their existing experiences. The main theoretical contribution here is a framework showing that apprehensions are derived from not only past experience but also new...... expectations. We also contribute with the finding that uncertain aspects of users’ existing work practices lead to positively valued expectations. Practically, we argue that users’ certainties toward the IS implementation may actually lead to uncertainty in other areas and propose that further research should...

  9. Value Representations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Majken Kirkegaard; Petersen, Marianne Graves

    2011-01-01

    Stereotypic presumptions about gender affect the design process, both in relation to how users are understood and how products are designed. As a way to decrease the influence of stereotypic presumptions in design process, we propose not to disregard the aspect of gender in the design process......, as the perspective brings valuable insights on different approaches to technology, but instead to view gender through a value lens. Contributing to this perspective, we have developed Value Representations as a design-oriented instrument for staging a reflective dialogue with users. Value Representations...

  10. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP IN THE PUBLIC SECTOR IN ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gherai Dana Simona

    2011-12-01

    between level of knowledge of the students regarding the statements in audit and the expectation gap. Also there is a significant difference in perceptions of the role of the public auditor in respect of fraud detection. The research will be extended to other users of accounting information (accountants, executives, managers, bankers to see their understanding of the role of external public auditors, this we consider Originality/value – This paper adds evidence to the important debate about expectation gap from a region that has had little coverage. In Romania are just a few information regarding the importance of education in reducing the audit expectation gap in public area. We try to draw attention in two sectors that are left one side, education and public domain. A correlation between these two, in the context of audit expectation gap will give some answers absolutely necessary.

  11. Price Changes, Resource Adjustments and Rational Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoffmann, Kira

    This study investigates the relationship between the accuracy of managerial demand expectations, resource adjustment decisions and selling price changes. In line with rational expectation theory, it is argued that managers adjust resources and selling prices differently in response to expected...... that cost elasticity is higher when a demand decrease is expected among companies with similar exposure to demand uncertainty. Overall, this implies that managerial competences in predicting future demand significantly determines firms’ profitability; especially when demand uncertainty is high...

  12. Entrepreneurial Identity and Role Expectations in Nascent Entrepreneurship

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundqvist, Mats; Middleton, Karen Williams; Nowell, Pamela

    2015-01-01

    Entrepreneurship has been defined as an individual?new value creation dialogic. To study how entrepreneurial identity evolves, this article, drawing on entrepreneurial learning theory, adds an entrepreneurial role expectations dialogic. Longitudinal evidence from nascent entrepreneurs working in venture teams on invention disclosures offers an…

  13. Predicting Document Retrieval System Performance: An Expected Precision Measure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Losee, Robert M., Jr.

    1987-01-01

    Describes an expected precision (EP) measure designed to predict document retrieval performance. Highlights include decision theoretic models; precision and recall as measures of system performance; EP graphs; relevance feedback; and computing the retrieval status value of a document for two models, the Binary Independent Model and the Two Poisson…

  14. Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, F.C.J.M.; de Roon, F.A.

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value

  15. Subjective Expected Utility: A Model of Decision-Making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fischoff, Baruch; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Outlines a model of decision making known to researchers in the field of behavioral decision theory (BDT) as subjective expected utility (SEU). The descriptive and predictive validity of the SEU model, probability and values assessment using SEU, and decision contexts are examined, and a 54-item reference list is provided. (JL)

  16. Expectancies as core features of mental disorders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rief, Winfried; Glombiewski, Julia A; Gollwitzer, Mario; Schubö, Anna; Schwarting, Rainer; Thorwart, Anna

    2015-09-01

    Expectancies are core features of mental disorders, and change in expectations is therefore one of the core mechanisms of treatment in psychiatry. We aim to improve our understanding of expectancies by summarizing factors that contribute to their development, persistence, and modification. We pay particular attention to the issue of persistence of expectancies despite experiences that contradict them. Based on recent research findings, we propose a new model for expectation persistence and expectation change. When expectations are established, effects are evident in neural and other biological systems, for example, via anticipatory reactions, different biological reactions to expected versus unexpected stimuli, etc. Psychological 'immunization' and 'assimilation', implicit self-confirming processes, and stability of biological processes help us to better understand why expectancies persist even in the presence of expectation violations. Learning theory, attentional processes, social influences, and biological determinants contribute to the development, persistence, and modification of expectancies. Psychological interventions should focus on optimizing expectation violation to achieve optimal treatment outcome and to avoid treatment failures.

  17. Expectancies as a Determinant of Interference Phenomena

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasher, Lynn; Greenberg, Michael

    1977-01-01

    One version, by Lockhart, Craik, and Jacoby, of a levels-of-processing model of memory asserts the importance of the role of expectancies about forthcoming information in determining the elaborateness of a memory trace. Confirmed expectancies result in less-elaborated memory traces; disconfirmed expectancies result in elaborate memory traces.…

  18. Parental Expectations of Their Adolescents' Teachers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tatar, Moshe; Horenczyk, Gabriel

    2000-01-01

    Examines parental expectations of their children's teachers through use of the Expectations of Teachers questionnaire. Participating parents (N=765) reported greater expectations for help and assistance, followed by teaching competence and fairness on the part of the teacher. Mothers were found to hold higher fairness, help, and assistance…

  19. Role Of Expectancy Manipulation In Systematic Desensitization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, H. Alan

    1973-01-01

    Expectancy, relaxation, and hierarchy content were manipulated. Findings did not support the hypothesis that expectancy was the only factor in desensitization, but did clarify the role of expectancy vis-a-vis the counterconditioning elements typically discussed in the literature. (Author)

  20. Unravelling Value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Walsh, Matthew

    Paper presented in the symposium “What’s It All Worth? Material Possessions and Value in Past Societies” at 22nd Annual Meeting of the European Association of Archaeologists, Vilnius, Lithuania.......Paper presented in the symposium “What’s It All Worth? Material Possessions and Value in Past Societies” at 22nd Annual Meeting of the European Association of Archaeologists, Vilnius, Lithuania....

  1. Childbirth expectations and correlates at the final stage of pregnancy in Chinese expectant parents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xian Zhang

    2014-06-01

    Conclusion: This study adds to understanding of the childbirth expectations of Chinese expectant parents. It is suggested that maternity healthcare providers pay close attention to the childbirth expectations of expectant parents, and improve the nursing care service to promote positive childbirth experiences and satisfaction of expectant parents.

  2. Trajectories of Educational Expectations from Adolescence to Young Adulthood in Finland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tynkkynen, Lotta; Tolvanen, Asko; Salmela-Aro, Katariina

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this person-oriented, 5-wave longitudinal study was to examine the trajectories of educational expectations from adolescence to young adulthood in the context of the expectancy-value theory (Eccles et al., 1983). Altogether, 853 (48% female; M age = 16 years) Finnish adolescents reported their educational expectation, 1st in the…

  3. Citizen Expectations and Satisfaction Over Time

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjortskov, Morten

    2018-01-01

    Expectations are thought to affect how citizens form their attitudes and behavior toward public services. Such attitudes may include citizen satisfaction, where expectations play a fundamental role, and relevant behaviors include choice of services and the decision to voice opinions about them....... However, there are few investigations into what drives citizen expectations and even fewer that consider these relationships across time. This article tests whether prior expectations, perceived performance, and citizen satisfaction influence future expectations, using a unique dataset that follows...... individual citizens across two subsequent school satisfaction surveys from 2011 and 2013. The results show that prior expectations have a large and consistent influence on future expectations, as predicted by the literature, whereas the influence from prior perceived performance seems less consistent. Prior...

  4. 學生知覺教師期望、能力信念、實用價值與內在價值對臺灣八年級學生數理成就之影響:以TIMSS 2011 多層次結構方程式模型為例 Effects of Perception of Teachers’ Expectations, Ability Beliefs, Utility Values, and Intrinsic Values on Math and Science Achievement Among Eighth-Grade Students in Taiwan: A Multilevel Structural Equation Model Using TIMSS 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    陳敏瑜 Min-Yu Chen

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available 本研究以期望價值理論為架構,進行國際數學與科學成就趨勢調查(TIMSS)2011 年臺灣八年級學生數學和科學成就之多層次結構方程式模型分析,瞭解學生層次(學生知覺教師期望、能力信念、實用價值、內在價值)及班級層次(班級知覺教師期望、班級能力信念、班級實用價值、班級內在價值)重要變項之影響力,並探究能力信念在學生知覺教師期望與數理成就之間的中介效果。本研究發現,學生層次和班級層次的模型結構並不相同,在學生層次的分析中,數學和科學的能力信念對學生學業成就的直接效果最大,而在數學與科學的班級層次分析中,班級能力信念皆對班級學業成就產生相當大的直接影響。此外,學生能力信念在學生知覺教師期望與數理成就之間扮演中介角色。最後依據研究結果提供建議,以供 實務應用及未來研究之參考。 On the basis of expectancy-value theory, multilevel structural equation models and trends in mathematics and science study 2011 data were applied to investigate the effects of the student-level variables (perception of teachers’ expectations, ability beliefs, utility values, and intrinsic values and their respective class-level variables on math and science achievement, and to test the mediation effect of ability belief between students’ perception of teachers’ expectations and the math and science achievements of eighth-grade students in Taiwan. The study revealed the following results: (1 The student-level and class-level structures exhibited differences. (2 At the student level, students’ ability belief had the strongest effect on their math and science achievement; the class level of ability belief had a positive effect on math and science achievement. (3 Ability belief had a significant mediating effect between the perception of teachers’ expectations and math

  5. Public Value: rethinking value creation

    OpenAIRE

    Meynhardt, Timo; Gomez, Peter; Strathoff, Pepe; Hermann, Carolin

    2014-01-01

    Managers might refute public criticism of their business as an attitude of taking everything for granted in a saturated society, but ignoring Public Value aspects can threaten the success of new products and even the survival of entire firms.

  6. YM2: Continuum expectations, lattice convergence, and lassos

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Driver, B.K.

    1989-01-01

    The two dimensional Yang-Mills theory (YM 2 ) is analyzed in both the continuum and the lattice. In the complete axial gauge the continuum theory may be defined in terms of a Lie algebra valued white noise, and parallel translation may be defined by stochastic differential equations. This machinery is used to compute the expectations of gauge invariant functions of the parallel translation operators along a collection of curves C. The expectation values are expressed as finite dimensional integrals with densities that are products of the heat kernel on the structure group. The time parameters of the heat kernels are determined by the areas enclosed by the collection C, and the arguments are determined by the crossing topologies of the curves in C. The expectations for the Wilson lattice models have a similar structure, and from this it follows that in the limit of small lattice spacing the lattice expectations converge to the continuum expectations. It is also shown that the lasso variables advocated by L. Gross exist and are sufficient to generate all the measurable functions on the YM 2 -measure space. (orig.)

  7. Expectant versus aggressive management in severe preeclampsia remote from term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarsam, D S; Shamden, M; Al Wazan, R

    2008-09-01

    Our study aims to compare neonatal and maternal outcomes between expectant (or conservative) and aggressive (or immediate) management in cases with severe preclampsia remote from term. This is a comparative study conducted at Al-Batool Teaching Hospital in Mosul City, Iraq, from April 2003 to August 2004. A total of 74 singleton pregnancies complicated by severe preeclampsia with gestational age of 24-34 weeks were studied during this period. The criteria used for the diagnosis of severe preeclampsia were in accordance with the guidelines of the American College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists. All the patients were counselled for expectant management. 39 patients were delivered immediately due to refusal of expectant management either by the patient or the attending physician. The other 35 patients were managed expectantly; this group was followed-up and carefully monitored for a period ranging from 72 hours to 18 days. Neonatal parameters, neonatal outcome and maternal outcome were compared between the two groups. The mean value of pregnancy prolongation was 9.2 days. Median gestational age for the first group was 29 weeks, and for the second group, it was 30 weeks. Regarding neonatal parameters, the expectantly-managed group had a higher Apgar score at one minute (3.56 +/- 1.72 vs. 5.05 +/- 1.77, p-value equals 0.001), lower mean days of hospitalisation in the neonatal intensive care unit (6.83 +/- 5.38 vs. 4.50 +/- 3.46, p-value equals 0.03), with a lower incidence of neonatal and maternal complications. Expectant management is recommended in patients with severe preeclampsia remote from term, after proper selection of patients and careful monitoring.

  8. FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

    OpenAIRE

    Valentin Gabriel Cristea

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing mode...

  9. INCULCATION OF VALUE THROUGH COMMERCE

    OpenAIRE

    Hetal Kherala

    2014-01-01

    The problem of value education of the young student has assumed increasing prominence in educational discussions during recent times. Parents, teachers and society at large concerned about values and value education of children. We believe that education is expected to play a major role in promoting national development of all the faculties towards adequate preparation for life. Life of human is all most incomplete without commercial services. It is the social and moral responsibility of a bu...

  10. Gender-Biased Expectations of Altruism in Adolescents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Salgado

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Research suggests that women, but not men, manifest gender-biased expectations of altruism: while women expect other women to be more altruistic, men expect women to be as generous as men. Do adolescents expect women and men to behave differently regarding altruism? I analyse adolescents' gender beliefs about altruism using a modified Dictator Game. Results indicate that adolescents believe that others of same gender are more altruistic than others of the opposite gender. I also found that adolescents' agreement with the existence of different societal roles for men and women moderates the relationship between gender and gender beliefs. Although it was expected that adolescents who agree with different gender roles would expect women to be more generous, surprisingly, the results presented here confirm this only for male adolescents, but in the opposite direction: the more male adolescents agree with the existence of different gender roles, the more they seem to believe that men are more generous than women. Meanwhile, female adolescents believe that women are more altruistic unconditionally. Thus, the previously documented bias seems to be already in place during adolescence, above and beyond other confounding factors. Adolescents' in-group bias, and their socialization into different cultural values regarding gender roles are discussed as potential explanatory mechanisms for these gender beliefs.

  11. Active inference and epistemic value.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friston, Karl; Rigoli, Francesco; Ognibene, Dimitri; Mathys, Christoph; Fitzgerald, Thomas; Pezzulo, Giovanni

    2015-01-01

    We offer a formal treatment of choice behavior based on the premise that agents minimize the expected free energy of future outcomes. Crucially, the negative free energy or quality of a policy can be decomposed into extrinsic and epistemic (or intrinsic) value. Minimizing expected free energy is therefore equivalent to maximizing extrinsic value or expected utility (defined in terms of prior preferences or goals), while maximizing information gain or intrinsic value (or reducing uncertainty about the causes of valuable outcomes). The resulting scheme resolves the exploration-exploitation dilemma: Epistemic value is maximized until there is no further information gain, after which exploitation is assured through maximization of extrinsic value. This is formally consistent with the Infomax principle, generalizing formulations of active vision based upon salience (Bayesian surprise) and optimal decisions based on expected utility and risk-sensitive (Kullback-Leibler) control. Furthermore, as with previous active inference formulations of discrete (Markovian) problems, ad hoc softmax parameters become the expected (Bayes-optimal) precision of beliefs about, or confidence in, policies. This article focuses on the basic theory, illustrating the ideas with simulations. A key aspect of these simulations is the similarity between precision updates and dopaminergic discharges observed in conditioning paradigms.

  12. Mental health expectancy--the European perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jagger, C; Ritchie, K; Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    The increase in life expectancy observed over the last decade has particular relevance for mental health conditions of old age, such as dementia. Although mental disorders have been estimated to be responsible for 60% of all disabilities, until recently population health indicators such as health...... expectancies have concentrated on calculating disability-free life expectancy based on physical functioning. In 1994, a European Network for the Calculation of Health Expectancies (Euro-REVES) was established, one of its aims being the development and promotion of mental health expectancies. Such indicators...... may have an important role in monitoring future changes in the mental health of populations and predicting service needs. This article summarizes the proceedings and recommendations of the first European Conference on Mental Health Expectancy....

  13. Stock Market Expectations of Dutch Households.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurd, Michael; van Rooij, Maarten; Winter, Joachim

    2011-04-01

    Despite its importance for the analysis of life-cycle behavior and, in particular, retirement planning, stock ownership by private households is poorly understood. Among other approaches to investigate this puzzle, recent research has started to elicit private households' expectations of stock market returns. This paper reports findings from a study that collected data over a two-year period both on households' stock market expectations (subjective probabilities of gains or losses) and on whether they own stocks. We document substantial heterogeneity in financial market expectations. Expectations are correlated with stock ownership. Over the two years of our data, stock market prices increased, and expectations of future stock market price changes also increased, lending support to the view that expectations are influenced by recent stock gains or losses.

  14. Stochastic Dominance under the Nonlinear Expected Utilities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinling Xiao

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In 1947, von Neumann and Morgenstern introduced the well-known expected utility and the related axiomatic system (see von Neumann and Morgenstern (1953. It is widely used in economics, for example, financial economics. But the well-known Allais paradox (see Allais (1979 shows that the linear expected utility has some limitations sometimes. Because of this, Peng proposed a concept of nonlinear expected utility (see Peng (2005. In this paper we propose a concept of stochastic dominance under the nonlinear expected utilities. We give sufficient conditions on which a random choice X stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the nonlinear expected utilities. We also provide sufficient conditions on which a random choice X strictly stochastically dominates a random choice Y under the sublinear expected utilities.

  15. Prediction Interval: What to Expect When You're Expecting … A Replication.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey R Spence

    Full Text Available A challenge when interpreting replications is determining whether the results of a replication "successfully" replicate the original study. Looking for consistency between two studies is challenging because individual studies are susceptible to many sources of error that can cause study results to deviate from each other and the population effect in unpredictable directions and magnitudes. In the current paper, we derive methods to compute a prediction interval, a range of results that can be expected in a replication due to chance (i.e., sampling error, for means and commonly used indexes of effect size: correlations and d-values. The prediction interval is calculable based on objective study characteristics (i.e., effect size of the original study and sample sizes of the original study and planned replication even when sample sizes across studies are unequal. The prediction interval provides an a priori method for assessing if the difference between an original and replication result is consistent with what can be expected due to sample error alone. We provide open-source software tools that allow researchers, reviewers, replicators, and editors to easily calculate prediction intervals.

  16. Expectations, Bond Yields and Monetary Policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chun, Albert Lee

    2011-01-01

    expectations about inflation, output growth, and the anticipated path of monetary policy actions contain important information for explaining movements in bond yields. Estimates from a forward-looking monetary policy rule suggest that the central bank exhibits a preemptive response to inflationary expectations...... of this type may provide traders and policymakers with a new set of tools for formally assessing the reaction of bond yields to shifts in market expectations...

  17. Heterogeneous inflation expectations, learning, and market outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Madeira, Carlos; Zafar, Basit

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers, we show that individuals, in particular women and ethnic minorities, are highly heterogeneous in their expectations of inflation. We estimate a model of inflation expectations based on learning from experience that also allows for heterogeneity in both private information and updating. Our model vastly outperforms existing models of inflation expectations in explaining the heterogeneity in the data. We find that women, ethnic mino...

  18. On the evaluation of marginal expected shortfall

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caporin, Massimiliano; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    2012-01-01

    In the analysis of systemic risk, Marginal Expected Shortfall may be considered to evaluate the marginal impact of a single stock on the market Expected Shortfall. These quantities are generally computed using log-returns, in particular when there is also a focus on returns conditional distribution....... In this case, the market log-return is only approximately equal to the weighed sum of equities log-returns. We show that the approximation error is large during turbulent market phases, with a subsequent impact on Marginal Expected Shortfall. We then suggest how to improve the evaluation of Marginal Expected...

  19. Add Value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kobbelgaard, Cecilie Elisabeth

    2016-01-01

    "Add Value – kend din kunde" er et brætspil, som giver både offentlige og private virksomheder unikke muligheder for at forbedre deres service overfor kunderne. Spillet giver, på en alternativ og handlingsorienteret måde, mulighed for at blive skarpere på kundeoplevelsen – hvor er der værdi...... at hente, og hvor kan der spares på tid og ressourcer? Dette samtidig med, at kunderne får den oplevelse og service, de forventer. Når I spiller "Add Value – kend din kunde" sættes der fokus på Jeres kundeservice ud fra kundens perspektiv, og det er i alle Jeres kontaktflader med kunden. Lige fra kunden...

  20. Conservation Value

    OpenAIRE

    Tisdell, Clement A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper outlines the significance of the concept of conservation value and discusses ways in which it is determined paying attention to views stemming from utilitarian ethics and from deontological ethics. The importance of user costs in relation to economic decisions about the conservation and use of natural resources is emphasised. Particular attention is given to competing views about the importance of conserving natural resources in order to achieve economic sustainability. This then l...

  1. NON-EXPECTED UTILITY THEORIES: WEIGHTED EXPECTED, RANK DEPENDENT, AND CUMULATIVE PROSPECT THEORY UTILITY

    OpenAIRE

    Tuthill, Jonathan W.; Frechette, Darren L.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses some of the failings of expected utility including the Allais paradox and expected utility's inadequate one dimensional characterization of risk. Three alternatives to expected utility are discussed at length; weighted expected utility, rank dependent utility, and cumulative prospect theory. Each alternative is capable of explaining Allais paradox type problems and permits more sophisticated multi dimensional risk preferences.

  2. Misconceptions and false expectations in neutral evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CARLOS Y. VALENZUELA

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Neutral evolution results from random recurrent mutation and genetic drift. A small part of random evolution, that which is related to protein or DNA polymorphisms, is the subject of the Neutral Theory of Evolution. One of the foundations of this theory is the demonstration that the mutation rate (m is equal to the substitution rate. Since both rates are independent of population size, they are independent of drift, which is dependent upon population size. Neutralists have erroneously equated the substitution rate with the fixation rate, despite the fact that they are antithetical conceptions. The neutralists then applied the random walk stochastic model to justify alleles or bases that were fixated or eliminated. In this model, once the allele or base frequencies reach the monomorphic states (values of 1.0 or 0.0, the absorbing barriers, they can no longer return to the polymorphic state. This operates in a pure mathematical model. If recurrent mutation occurs (as in biotic real systems fixation and elimination are impossible. A population of bacteria in which m=10-8 base mutation (or substitution/site/generation and the reproduction rate is 1000 cell cycle/year should replace all its genome bases in approximately 100,000 years. The expected situation for all sites is polymorphism for the four bases rather than monomorphism at 1.0 or 0.0 frequencies. If fixation and elimination of a base for more than 500,000 years are impossible, then most of the neutral theory is untenable. A new complete neutral model, which allows for recurrent substitutions, is proposed here based on recurrent mutation or substitution and drift alone. The model fits a binomial or Poisson distribution and not a geometric one, as does neutral theory.

  3. Using Daily Horoscopes To Demonstrate Expectancy Confirmation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Munro, Geoffrey D.; Munro, James E.

    2000-01-01

    Describes a classroom demonstration that uses daily horoscopes to show the effect that expectation can have on judgment. Addresses the preparation, procedure, and results of the demonstration, and student evaluations. States that the demonstration appears to be effective for teaching students about expectancy confirmation. (CMK)

  4. Do Students Expect Compensation for Wage Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schweri, Juerg; Hartog, Joop; Wolter, Stefan C.

    2011-01-01

    We use a unique data set about the wage distribution that Swiss students expect for themselves ex ante, deriving parametric and non-parametric measures to capture expected wage risk. These wage risk measures are unfettered by heterogeneity which handicapped the use of actual market wage dispersion as risk measure in earlier studies. Students in…

  5. Memory, expectation formation and scheduling choices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, P.R.; Peer, S.; Dekker, T.

    2015-01-01

    Limited memory capacity, retrieval constraints and anchoring are central to expectation formation processes. We develop a model of adaptive expectations where individuals are able to store only a finite number of past experiences of a stochastic state variable. Retrieval of these experiences is

  6. Socioeconomic differences in health expectancy in Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

    2000-01-01

    Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups.......Social differences in mortality rates reported in Denmark gave rise to the present study of health expectancy in different socioeconomic groups....

  7. Video lottery: winning expectancies and arousal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ladouceur, Robert; Sévigny, Serge; Blaszczynski, Alexander; O'Connor, Kieron; Lavoie, Marc E

    2003-06-01

    This study investigates the effects of video lottery players' expectancies of winning on physiological and subjective arousal. Participants were assigned randomly to one of two experimental conditions: high and low winning expectancies. Participants played 100 video lottery games in a laboratory setting while physiological measures were recorded. Level of risk-taking was controlled. Participants were 34 occasional or regular video lottery players. They were assigned randomly into two groups of 17, with nine men and eight women in each group. The low-expectancy group played for fun, therefore expecting to win worthless credits, while the high-expectancy group played for real money. Players' experience, demographic variables and subjective arousal were assessed. Severity of problem gambling was measured with the South Oaks Gambling Screen. In order to measure arousal, the average heart rate was recorded across eight periods. Participants exposed to high as compared to low expectations experienced faster heart rate prior to and during the gambling session. According to self-reports, it is the expectancy of winning money that is exciting, not playing the game. Regardless of the level of risk-taking, expectancy of winning is a cognitive factor influencing levels of arousal. When playing for fun, gambling becomes significantly less stimulating than when playing for money.

  8. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    2017-01-01

    In this article, I study the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. I show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of exp...

  9. Smoking expands expected lifetime with musculoskeletal disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik; Juel, Knud

    2003-01-01

    By indirect estimation of mortality from smoking and life table methods we estimated expected lifetime without musculoskeletal diseases among never smokers, ex-smokers, and smokers. We found that although life expectancy of a heavy smoker is 7 years shorter than that of a never smoker, heavy...

  10. Expectation formation in dynamic market experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heemeijer, P.

    2009-01-01

    People often make mistakes when predicting economic variables such as prices. It is important to understand how these predictions are formed, since people's expectations have a large impact on the development and stability of economic systems. In this thesis the expectation formation of individuals

  11. Expectation of recovery from low back pain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kongsted, Alice; Vach, Werner; Axø, Marie

    2014-01-01

    Study Design. A prospective cohort study conducted in general practice (GP) and chiropractic practice (CP).Objectives. To explore which patient characteristics were associated with recovery expectations in low back pain (LBP) patients, whether expectations predicted 3-month outcome, and to what...

  12. Perceptual grouping effects on cursor movement expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorneich, Michael C; Hamblin, Christopher J; Lancaster, Jeff A; Olofinboba, Olu

    2014-05-01

    Two studies were conducted to develop an understanding of factors that drive user expectations when navigating between discrete elements on a display via a limited degree-of-freedom cursor control device. For the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle spacecraft, a free-floating cursor with a graphical user interface (GUI) would require an unachievable level of accuracy due to expected acceleration and vibration conditions during dynamic phases of flight. Therefore, Orion program proposed using a "caged" cursor to "jump" from one controllable element (node) on the GUI to another. However, nodes are not likely to be arranged on a rectilinear grid, and so movements between nodes are not obvious. Proximity between nodes, direction of nodes relative to each other, and context features may all contribute to user cursor movement expectations. In an initial study, we examined user expectations based on the nodes themselves. In a second study, we examined the effect of context features on user expectations. The studies established that perceptual grouping effects influence expectations to varying degrees. Based on these results, a simple rule set was developed to support users in building a straightforward mental model that closely matches their natural expectations for cursor movement. The results will help designers of display formats take advantage of the natural context-driven cursor movement expectations of users to reduce navigation errors, increase usability, and decrease access time. The rules set and guidelines tie theory to practice and can be applied in environments where vibration or acceleration are significant, including spacecraft, aircraft, and automobiles.

  13. Subjective Expected Utility Theory with "Small Worlds"

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gyntelberg, Jacob; Hansen, Frank

    which is a more general construction than a state space. We retain preference axioms similar in spirit to the Savage axioms and obtain, without abandoning linearity of expectations, a subjective expected utility theory which allows for an intuitive distinction between risk and uncertainty. We also...

  14. Expectations as a key element in trusting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Mette Apollo; Hansen, Uffe Kjærgaard; Conradsen, Maria Bosse

    Considering the need for a tangible focus for qualitative research on trusting, we propose that expectations to the behavior of others can provide that. By focusing on expectations, researchers can produce narrative descriptions that explains how trusting develops and changes. Then the key theore...

  15. Grief Experiences and Expectance of Suicide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wojtkowiak, Joanna; Wild, Verena; Egger, Jos

    2012-01-01

    Suicide is generally viewed as an unexpected cause of death. However, some suicides might be expected to a certain extent, which needs to be further studied. The relationships between expecting suicide, feeling understanding for the suicide, and later grief experiences were explored. In total, 142 bereaved participants completed the Grief…

  16. International Variations in Measuring Customer Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvert, Philip J.

    2001-01-01

    Discussion of customer expectations of library service quality and SERVQUAL as a measurement tool focuses on two studies: one that compared a survey of Chinese university students' expectations of service quality to New Zealand students; and one that investigated national culture as a source of attitudes to customer service. (Author/LRW)

  17. Memory for expectation-violating concepts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Porubanova, Michaela; Shaw, Daniel; McKay, Ryan

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has shown that ideas which violate our expectations, such as schema-inconsistent concepts, enjoy privileged status in terms of memorability. In our study, memory for concepts that violate cultural (cultural schema-level) expectations (e.g., ‘‘illiterate teacher’’, ‘‘wooden bottle...... expectations and with intuitive concepts (e.g., ‘‘galloping pony’’, ‘‘drying orchid’’, or ‘‘convertible car’’), in both immediate recall, and delayed recognition tests. Importantly, concepts related to agents showed a memory advantage over concepts not pertaining to agents, but this was true only...... for expectation-violating concepts. Our results imply that intuitive, everyday concepts are equally attractive and memorable regardless of the presence or absence of agents. However, concepts that violate our expectations (cultural-schema or domain-level) are more memorable when pertaining to agents (humans...

  18. The value of reliability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosgerau, Mogens; Karlström, Anders

    2010-01-01

    We derive the value of reliability in the scheduling of an activity of random duration, such as travel under congested conditions. Using a simple formulation of scheduling utility, we show that the maximal expected utility is linear in the mean and standard deviation of trip duration, regardless...... of the form of the standardised distribution of trip durations. This insight provides a unification of the scheduling model and models that include the standard deviation of trip duration directly as an argument in the cost or utility function. The results generalise approximately to the case where the mean...

  19. Continued usage of e-learning: Expectations and performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Antonio de Melo Pereira

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims to investigate the determinants of satisfaction and the resulting continuance intention use in e-learning context. The constructs of decomposed expectancy disconfirmation theory (DEDT are evaluated from the perspective of users of a virtual learning environment (VLE in relation to expectations and perceived performance. An online survey collected responses from 197 students of a public management course in distance mode. Structural equation modeling was operationalized by the method of partial least squares in Smart PLS software. The results showed that there is a relationship between quality, usability, value and value disconfirmation with satisfaction. Likewise, satisfaction proved to be decisive for the continuance intention use. However, there were no significant relationships between quality disconfirmation and usability disconfirmation with satisfaction. Based on the results, is discussed the theoretical and practical implications of the structural model found by the search.

  20. Health insurance, cost expectations, and adverse job turnover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Randall P; Albert Ma, Ching-To

    2011-01-01

    Because less healthy employees value health insurance more than the healthy ones, when health insurance is newly offered job turnover rates for healthier employees decline less than turnover rates for the less healthy. We call this adverse job turnover, and it implies that a firm's expected health costs will increase when health insurance is first offered. Health insurance premiums may fail to adjust sufficiently fast because state regulations restrict annual premium changes, or insurers are reluctant to change premiums rapidly. Even with premiums set at the long run expected costs, some firms may be charged premiums higher than their current expected costs and choose not to offer insurance. High administrative costs at small firms exacerbate this dynamic selection problem. Using 1998-1999 MEDSTAT MarketScan and 1997 Employer Health Insurance Survey data, we find that expected employee health expenditures at firms that offer insurance have lower within-firm and higher between-firm variance than at firms that do not. Turnover rates are systematically higher in industries in which firms are less likely to offer insurance. Simulations of the offer decision capturing between-firm health-cost heterogeneity and expected turnover rates match the observed pattern across firm sizes well. 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. Life expectancy in elderly patients following burns injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepehripour, Sarvnaz; Duggineni, Sirisha; Shahsavari, Somaya; Dheansa, Baljit

    2018-05-18

    Burn injuries commonly occur in vulnerable age and social groups. Previous research has shown that frailty may represent a more important marker of adverse outcome in healthcare rather than chronological age (Roberts et al., 2012). In this paper we determined the relationship between burn injury, frailty, co-morbidities and long-term survival. Retrospective data collection from patients aged 75 with burns injuries, treated and discharged at Queen Victoria Hospital. The Clinical Frailty Scale (Rockwood et al., 2005) was used to calculate frailty at the time of admission. The expected mortality age (life expectancy) of deceased patients was obtained from two survival predictors. The data shows a statistically significant correlation between frailty score and complications and a statistically significant correlation between total body surface area percentage and complications. No significant difference was found between expected and observed age of death or life expectancy amongst the deceased (p value of 0.109). Based on the data from our unit, sustaining a burn as an elderly person does not reduce life expectancy. Medical and surgical complications, immediate, early and late, although higher with greater frailty and TBSA of burn, but do not adversely affect survival in this population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Great expectations: teaching ethics to medical students in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrens, Kevin Gary; Fellingham, Robyn

    2014-12-01

    Many academic philosophers and ethicists are appointed to teach ethics to medical students. We explore exactly what this task entails. In South Africa the Health Professions Council's curriculum for training medical practitioners requires not only that students be taught to apply ethical theory to issues and be made aware of the legal and regulatory requirements of their profession, it also expects moral formation and the inculcation of professional virtue in students. We explore whether such expectations are reasonable. We defend the claim that physicians ought to be persons of virtuous character, on the grounds of the social contract between society and the profession. We further argue that since the expectations of virtue of health care professionals are reasonable, it is also sound reasoning to expect ethics teachers to try to inculcate such virtues in their students, so far as this is possible. Furthermore, this requires of such teachers that they be suitable role models of ethical practice and virtue, themselves. We claim that this applies to ethics teachers who are themselves not members of the medical profession, too, even though they are not bound by the same social contract as doctors. We conclude that those who accept employment as teachers of ethics to medical students, where as part of their contractual obligation they are expected to inculcate moral values in their students, ought to be prepared to accept their responsibility to be professionally ethical, themselves. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Valuing hope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMillan, John; Walker, Simon; Hope, Tony

    2014-01-01

    This article argues that hope is of value in clinical ethics and that it can be important for clinicians to be sensitive to both the risks of false hope and the importance of retaining hope. However, this sensitivity requires an understanding of the complexity of hope and how it bears on different aspects of a well-functioning doctor-patient relationship. We discuss hopefulness and distinguish it, from three different kinds of hope, or 'hopes for', and then relate these distinctions back to differing accounts of autonomy. This analysis matters because it shows how an overly narrow view of the ethical obligations of a clinician to their patient, and autonomy, might lead to scenarios where patients regret the choices they make.

  4. Prior expectations facilitate metacognition for perceptual decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sherman, M T; Seth, A K; Barrett, A B; Kanai, R

    2015-09-01

    The influential framework of 'predictive processing' suggests that prior probabilistic expectations influence, or even constitute, perceptual contents. This notion is evidenced by the facilitation of low-level perceptual processing by expectations. However, whether expectations can facilitate high-level components of perception remains unclear. We addressed this question by considering the influence of expectations on perceptual metacognition. To isolate the effects of expectation from those of attention we used a novel factorial design: expectation was manipulated by changing the probability that a Gabor target would be presented; attention was manipulated by instructing participants to perform or ignore a concurrent visual search task. We found that, independently of attention, metacognition improved when yes/no responses were congruent with expectations of target presence/absence. Results were modeled under a novel Bayesian signal detection theoretic framework which integrates bottom-up signal propagation with top-down influences, to provide a unified description of the mechanisms underlying perceptual decision and metacognition. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Patient/parent expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obilade, Omolara Abiodun; da Costa, Oluranti Olatokunbo; Sanu, Oluwatosin Oluyemi

    2017-03-01

    Expectations of orthodontic treatment may differ between the patient and their parents, as the parents' expectations may not reflect those of the child. The aim of this study, therefore, was to determine the expectations of patients and their parents. This was a clinic-based, comparative, cross-sectional study involving 110 patients aged between 10 and 19 years, as well as their accompanying parents or guardians. The expectations of both patients and parents were determined using a questionnaire developed by Sayers and Newton. Results showed that the expectations of the patients and parents differed significantly in a number of areas with the parents' expectations often exceeding those of the patients. Both patients and parents were found to be ignorant about some aspects of orthodontic treatment, with 47.3% of patients and 39.1% of parents unaware of the duration of orthodontic treatment and, as such, requiring information from their clinicians. The results highlight the importance of patient education and counseling as well as the need to focus on the individual patient and not assume that their expectations mirror those of the accompanying parent. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

  6. Patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiemstra, Renske; Bos, Annemieke; Hoogstraten, Johan

    2009-12-01

    To investigate the expectations of children and their primary care-givers towards orthodontic treatment and to compare the results with those of a UK sample. A questionnaire survey of children and their primary care-givers attending for their first consultation. The Department of Orthodontics at the Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), the Netherlands. A total of 168 subjects (84 patients and 84 parents) completed the questionnaire. The children were aged 10 to 14 years. The responses of the children and parents and differences between boys and girls were examined using parametric statistical methods. The data from the Dutch sample were compared with a similar UK sample. Patients and parents shared similar expectations of orthodontic treatment, with the exception of expectations of having a brace fitted at the first appointment, orthodontic treatment involving headgear, any problems with orthodontic treatment, duration of orthodontic treatment and concerning reactions from the public. Among the child participants, boys and girls only differed in their expectations of orthodontic treatment involving jaw surgery. Differences between Dutch and English participants were found regarding the first visit, type of orthodontic treatment, reactions from the public, and pain and problems with orthodontic treatment. Since the expectations of patients and their parents differ on several aspects, effective communication between the orthodontist, patient and parent is considered to be essential. Our hypothesis that Dutch patients' and parents' expectations of orthodontic treatment differ from the expectations of English patients and parents was supported.

  7. Expectations in patients with total knee arthroplasty.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tekin, Burcu; Unver, Bayram; Karatosun, Vasfi

    2012-01-01

    The primary objective of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is to decrease pain and restore functional knee joint. Current hypotheses indicate higher knee flexion is required in terms of life style, culture and expectations in Eastern communities. Therefore, society-specific features related to life style and cultural habits are needed. The objective of this study was to investigate the expectations of patients undergoing TKA. The study included 131 patients (18 male, 113 female; mean age: 66.2 ± 8.3 years) who underwent cemented TKA due to knee osteoarthritis. All patients were operated by the same surgeon using the same implant and surgical technique. Patients were evaluated using the Hospital for Special Surgery (HSS) knee score, a 15-item clinical knee assessment questionnaire and the HSS knee arthroplasty expectation questionnaire. Mean HSS score for the right knee was 89.2 ± 10.5 and for the left knee was 89.6 ± 9.4. The two most expected outcomes were improvements in pain (99.2%) and gait (96.2%) and the two least expected outcomes were improvements in psychological well-being (22.9%) and communicative skills (35.1%). Expectations were not affected by education and working conditions. Patients' most expected outcomes were improvement in pain and restoration of function (gait, climbing stairs and no need of assistive devices), similar to Western and American communities.

  8. Time Varying Market Integration and Expected Rteurns in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Jong, F.C.J.M. de; Roon, F.A. de

    2001-01-01

    We use a simple model in which the expected returns in emerging markets depend on their systematic risk as measured by their beta relative to the world portfolio as well as on the level of integration in that market.The level of integration is a time-varying variable that depends on the market value of the assets that can be held by domestic investors only versus the market value of the assets that can be traded freely.Our empirical analysis for 30 emerging markets shows that there are strong...

  9. On a Graphical Technique for Evaluating Some Rational Expectations Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Søren; Swensen, Anders R.

    2011-01-01

    Campbell and Shiller (1987) proposed a graphical technique for the present value model, which consists of plotting estimates of the spread and theoretical spread as calculated from the cointegrated vector autoregressive model without imposing the restrictions implied by the present value model....... In addition to getting a visual impression of the fit of the model, the purpose is to see if the two spreads are nevertheless similar as measured by correlation, variance ratio, and noise ratio. We extend these techniques to a number of rational expectation models and give a general definition of spread...

  10. Fair Value or Market Value?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bogdan Cosmin Gomoi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available When taking into consideration the issue of defining the “fair value” concept, those less experimented in the area often fall in the “price trap”, which is considered as an equivalent of the fair value of financial structures. This valuation basis appears as a consequence of the trial to provide an “accurate image” by the financial statements and, also, as an opportunity for the premises offered by the activity continuing principle. The specialized literature generates ample controversies regarding the “fair value” concept and the “market value” concept. The paper aims to debate this issue, taking into account various opinions.

  11. Pandemic risk: how large are the expected losses?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Victoria Y; Jamison, Dean T; Summers, Lawrence H

    2018-02-01

    There is an unmet need for greater investment in preparedness against major epidemics and pandemics. The arguments in favour of such investment have been largely based on estimates of the losses in national incomes that might occur as the result of a major epidemic or pandemic. Recently, we extended the estimate to include the valuation of the lives lost as a result of pandemic-related increases in mortality. This produced markedly higher estimates of the full value of loss that might occur as the result of a future pandemic. We parametrized an exceedance probability function for a global influenza pandemic and estimated that the expected number of influenza-pandemic-related deaths is about 720 000 per year. We calculated that the expected annual losses from pandemic risk to be about 500 billion United States dollars - or 0.6% of global income - per year. This estimate falls within - but towards the lower end of - the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's estimates of the value of the losses from global warming, which range from 0.2% to 2% of global income. The estimated percentage of annual national income represented by the expected value of losses varied by country income grouping: from a little over 0.3% in high-income countries to 1.6% in lower-middle-income countries. Most of the losses from influenza pandemics come from rare, severe events.

  12. Expected Business Conditions and Bond Risk Premia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard

    This paper studies the predictability of bond risk premia by means of expectations to future business conditions using survey forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We show that expected business conditions consistently affect excess bond returns and that the inclusion of expected...... business conditions in standard predictive regressions improve forecast performance relative to models using information derived from the current term structure or macroeconomic variables. The results are confirmed in a real-time out-of-sample exercise, where the predictive accuracy of the models...... is evaluated both statistically and from the perspective of a mean-variance investor that trades in the bond market....

  13. Towards a Characterization of Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Itai Arieli

    2008-01-01

    R. J. Aumann and J. H. Drèze (2008) define a rational expectation of a player i in a game G as the expected payo of some type of i in some belief system for G in which common knowledge of rationality and common priors obtain. Our goal is to characterize the set of rational expectations in terms of the game's payoff matrix. We provide such a characterization for a specific class of strategic games, called semi-elementary, which includes Myerson's "elementary" games.

  14. Dynamic decision making without expected utility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Jaffray, Jean-Yves

    2006-01-01

    Non-expected utility theories, such as rank dependent utility (RDU) theory, have been proposed as alternative models to EU theory in decision making under risk. These models do not share the separability property of expected utility theory. This implies that, in a decision tree, if the reduction...... maker’s discordant goals at the different decision nodes. Relative to the computations involved in the standard expected utility evaluation of a decision problem, the main computational increase is due to the identification of non-dominated strategies by linear programming. A simulation, using the rank...

  15. The Probability Model of Expectation Disconfirmation Process

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui-Hsin HUANG

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a probability model to explore the dynamic process of customer’s satisfaction. Bases on expectation disconfirmation theory, the satisfaction is constructed with customer’s expectation before buying behavior and the perceived performance after purchase. The experiment method is designed to measure expectation disconfirmation effects and we also use the collection data to estimate the overall satisfaction and model calibration. The results show good fitness between the model and the real data. This model has application for business marketing areas in order to manage relationship satisfaction.

  16. Education: A Core Value

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, William F., Jr.

    2001-09-01

    Teaching our Children. ACS should develop an intensive course in modern teaching methods, challenges and responsibilities, and press for streamlined teacher certification procedures for advanced degree or life experience chemists. Teaching our Future Colleagues. As President I will encourage companies to make scientists with special skills available to universities, and will encourage universities to utilize these scientists to round out areas of study not covered by their existing faculty. Teaching our Members. ACS should develop functional and management-related courses for scientists to facilitate career advancement from the bench to research management or from science to business. Teaching the Public. The President is the most visible representative of the Society, and should devote significant time to communication with lay audiences. Value Matters. My first priority as President will be to increase value creation, communication and quantification so members can easily identify programs that fill their needs and exceed their expectations.

  17. Anesthesia -- What to Expect (For Teens)

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español Anesthesia - What to Expect KidsHealth / For Teens / Anesthesia - What ... Operating Room After Surgery Print Different Kinds of Anesthesia If you're having any kind of procedure ...

  18. Stakeholder expectation and satisfaction in road maintenance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hietbrink, M.; Hartmann, Andreas; Dewulf, Geert P.M.R.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the process of stakeholder satisfaction is a prerequisite for successful stakeholder management. The expectancy disconfirmation model describes the process of stakeholder satisfaction by relating customers’ satisfaction with a product or service to discrepancy between the perceived

  19. What to Expect During a Colonoscopy

    Medline Plus

    Full Text Available ... Earn your CME from the convenience of your home or office by accessing ACG's web-based educational ... ACG Blog Follow ACG on Twitter Patients ACG Home / Media / What to Expect During a Colonoscopy What ...

  20. Suggestibility and Expectancy in a Counseling Analogue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaul, Theodore J.; Parker, Clyde A.

    1971-01-01

    The data indicated that (a) subjectively experienced suggestibility was more closely related to attitude change than was objective suggestibility, and (b) the generalized expectancy treatments were ineffective in influencing different criterion scores. (Author)

  1. AUDIT EXPECTATION GAP: AUDITORS IN UNENDING ROLE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    GRACE

    Key Words: Expectation gap, Auditors, Shareholders, Self-regulation, Audit ... of auditing has changed from fraud detection to ‗verification of financial .... According to the role theory, the role of the auditors can be viewed in terms of the.

  2. Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Roscoe, Joseph

    1999-01-01

    ...; and writing abstracts, papers, and book chapters. The training also includes the design, implementation and analyses of a randomized controlled experiment examining the relationship between cancer patient expectations for experiencing chemotherapy...

  3. Components of attention modulated by temporal expectation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Thomas Alrik; Vangkilde, Signe Allerup; Bundesen, Claus

    2015-01-01

    By varying the probabilities that a stimulus would appear at particular times after the presentation of a cue and modeling the data by the theory of visual attention (Bundesen, 1990), Vangkilde, Coull, and Bundesen (2012) provided evidence that the speed of encoding a singly presented stimulus...... letter into visual short-term memory (VSTM) is modulated by the observer’s temporal expectations. We extended the investigation from single-stimulus recognition to whole report (Experiment 1) and partial report (Experiment 2). Cue–stimulus foreperiods were distributed geometrically using time steps...... of 500 ms. In high expectancy conditions, the probability that the stimulus would appear on the next time step, given that it had not yet appeared, was high, whereas in low expectancy conditions, the probability was low. The speed of encoding the stimuli into VSTM was higher in the high expectancy...

  4. Retirement expectations and satisfaction with retirement provisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Bresser, Jochem; van Soest, Arthur

    This paper investigates the relationship between subjective expectations regarding the replacement rate of income at retirement and several measures of pension satisfaction. We use panel data on Dutch employees, analyzed with fixed effects models, allowing for correlation between unobserved

  5. Training across Cultures: What To Expect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weech, William A.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses four critical dimensions that help explain the variation in cultural expectations: (1) egalitarianism versus hierarchy; (2) individualism versus collectivism; (3) achievement versus relationship orientation; and (4) loose versus tight structure. Explains how to apply these dimensions in training. (JOW)

  6. Using Expectancy Theory to Explain Performance Appraisal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    pc

    2018-03-05

    Mar 5, 2018 ... appraisal conducting style, the relation between the performance appraisal system and task ... the article first explains the theory model which is based expectancy theory. II. ... which in return lead to rewards. According to [12],.

  7. Valuing vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bärnighausen, Till; Bloom, David E; Cafiero-Fonseca, Elizabeth T; O'Brien, Jennifer Carroll

    2014-08-26

    Vaccination has led to remarkable health gains over the last century. However, large coverage gaps remain, which will require significant financial resources and political will to address. In recent years, a compelling line of inquiry has established the economic benefits of health, at both the individual and aggregate levels. Most existing economic evaluations of particular health interventions fail to account for this new research, leading to potentially sizable undervaluation of those interventions. In line with this new research, we set forth a framework for conceptualizing the full benefits of vaccination, including avoided medical care costs, outcome-related productivity gains, behavior-related productivity gains, community health externalities, community economic externalities, and the value of risk reduction and pure health gains. We also review literature highlighting the magnitude of these sources of benefit for different vaccinations. Finally, we outline the steps that need to be taken to implement a broad-approach economic evaluation and discuss the implications of this work for research, policy, and resource allocation for vaccine development and delivery.

  8. Nonlinear expectations in speculative markets – Evidence from the ECB survey of professional forecasters

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke; Reitz

    2012-01-01

    Chartist and fundamentalist models have proven to be capable of replicating stylized facts on speculative markets. In general, this is achieved by specifying nonlinear interactions of otherwise linear asset price expectations of the respective trader groups. This paper investigates whether...... in the neighborhood of the fundamental value, whereas expectations tend to be stabilizing in the presence of substantial oil price misalignment....... or not regressive and extrapolative expectations themselves exhibit significant nonlinear dynamics. The empirical results are based on a new data set from the European Central Bank Survey of Professional Forecasters on oil price expectations. In particular, we find that forecasters form destabilizing expectations...

  9. The impact of individual expectations and expectation conflicts on virtual teams

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosch-Sijtsema, Petra

    Virtual teams are characterized by geographical dispersion, organizational, and cultural heterogeneity, and their members have little history and lateral and weak relationships. Literature denotes the importance of expectations in virtual settings, but individual expectations of virtual team members

  10. Lessons from Learning to Have Rational Expectations

    OpenAIRE

    Lindh, Thomas

    1989-01-01

    This paper reviews a growing literature investigating how economic agents may learn rational expectations. Fully rational learning requires implausible initial information assumptions, therefore some form of bounded rationality has come into focus. Such learning models often converge to rational expectations equilibria within certain bounds. Convergence analysis has been much simplified by methods from adaptive control theory. Learning stability as a correspondence principle show some promise...

  11. Are women expected to be more generous?

    OpenAIRE

    Aguiar, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes if men and women are expected to behave differently regarding altruism. Since the dictator game provides the most suitable design for studying altruism and generosity in the lab setting, we use a modified version to study the beliefs involved in the game. Our results are substantial: men and women are expected to behave differently. Moreover, while women believe that women are more generous, men consider that women are as generous as men. © 2008 Economic Science Association.

  12. Heterogeneus Inflation Expectations Learning and Market Outcomes

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Madeira; Basit Zafar

    2012-01-01

    Using the panel component of the Michigan Survey of Consumers we estimate a learning model of inflation expectations, allowing for heterogeneous use of both private information and lifetime inflation experience. We find that women, ethnic minorities, and less educated agents have a higher degree of heterogeneity in their private information, and are slower to update their expectations. During the 2000s, consumers believe inflation to be more persistent in the short term, but temporary fluctua...

  13. Evolution of non-expected utility preferences

    CERN Document Server

    Widekind, Sven von; Fandel, G

    2008-01-01

    The theory on the evolution of preferences deals with the endogenous formation of preference relations in strategic situations. It is related to the field of evolutionary game theory. In this book we analyze the role and the influence of general, possibly non-expected utility preferences in such an evolutionary setup. In particular, we demonstrate that preferences which diverge from von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility may potentially prove to be successful under evolutionary pressures.

  14. Defining Trust Using Expected Utility Theory

    OpenAIRE

    Arai, Kazuhiro

    2009-01-01

    Trust has been discussed in many social sciences including economics, psychology, and sociology. However, there is no widely accepted definition of trust. Inparticular, there is no definition that can be used for economic analysis. This paper regards trust as expectation and defines it using expected utility theory together with concepts such as betrayal premium. In doing so, it rejects the widely accepted black-and-white view that (un) trustworthy people are always (un)trustworthy. This pape...

  15. Telaah Kritis Expectancy Theory Victor Harold Vroom

    OpenAIRE

    Anatan, Lina

    2010-01-01

    Expectancy theory has emerge as the dominant process theory of motivation, originally developed by Vroom is a theory explaining the process individual use to make decision on a various behavioral alternatives. The motivational force for a behavior, action, or task is a function of three distinctive perceptions: expectancy, instrumentality, and valance. The theory contains of two models: for the precition of valance of an outcome, and the other for the prediction of force toward behavior. It p...

  16. Fertility expectations and residential mobility in Britain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Ermisch

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: It is plausible that people take into account anticipated changes in family size in choosing where to live. But estimation of the impact of anticipated events on current transitions in an event history framework is challenging because expectations must be measured in some way and, like indicators of past childbearing, expected future childbearing may be endogenous with respect to housing decisions. Objective: The objective of the study is to estimate how expected changes in family size affect residential movement in Great Britain in a way which addresses these challenges. Methods: We use longitudinal data from a mature 18-wave panel survey, the British Household Panel Survey, which incorporates a direct measure of fertility expectations. The statistical methods allow for the potential endogeneity of expectations in our estimation and testing framework. Results: We produce evidence consistent with the idea that past childbearing mainly affects residential mobility through expectations of future childbearing, not directly through the number of children in the household. But there is heterogeneity in response. In particular, fertility expectations have a much greater effect on mobility among women who face lower costs of mobility, such as private tenants. Conclusions: Our estimates indicate that expecting to have a(nother child in the future increases the probability of moving by about 0.036 on average, relative to an average mobility rate of 0.14 per annum in our sample. Contribution: Our contribution is to incorporate anticipation of future events into an empirical model of residential mobility. We also shed light on how childbearing affects mobility.

  17. Young infants have biological expectations about animals

    OpenAIRE

    Setoh, Peipei; Wu, Di; Baillargeon, Renée; Gelman, Rochel

    2013-01-01

    We provide an experimental demonstration that young infants possess abstract biological expectations about animals. Our findings represent a major breakthrough in the study of the foundations of human knowledge. In four experiments, 8-mo-old infants expected novel objects they categorized as animals to have filled insides. Thus, infants detected a violation when objects that were self-propelled and agentive were revealed to be hollow, or when an object that was self-propelled and furry rattle...

  18. Gamma-Gompertz life expectancy at birth

    OpenAIRE

    Trifon I. Missov

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND The gamma-Gompertz multiplicative frailty model is the most common parametric modelapplied to human mortality data at adult and old ages. The resulting life expectancy hasbeen calculated so far only numerically. OBJECTIVE Properties of the gamma-Gompertz distribution have not been thoroughly studied. The focusof the paper is to shed light onto its first moment or, demographically speaking, characterizelife expectancy resulting from a gamma-Gompertz force of mortality. The paperprov...

  19. Converting customer expectations into achievable results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, G A

    1999-11-01

    It is not enough in today's environment to just meet customers' expectations--we must exceed them. Therefore, one must learn what constitutes expectations. These needs have expanded during the past few years from just manufacturing the product and looking at the outcome from a provincial standpoint. Now we must understand and satisfy the entire supply chain. To manage this process and satisfy the customer, the process now involves the supplier, the manufacturer, and the entire distribution system.

  20. The value of service reliability

    OpenAIRE

    Benezech , Vincent; Coulombel , Nicolas

    2013-01-01

    International audience; This paper studies the impact of service frequency and reliability on the choice of departure time and the travel cost of transit users. When the user has (α, β, γ) scheduling preferences, we show that the optimal head start decreases with service reliability, as expected. It does not necessarily decrease with service frequency, however. We derive the value of service headway (VoSH) and the value of service reliability (VoSR), which measure the marginal effect on the e...

  1. When theory and biology differ: The relationship between reward prediction errors and expectancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Chad C; Hassall, Cameron D; Trska, Robert; Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olave E

    2017-10-01

    Comparisons between expectations and outcomes are critical for learning. Termed prediction errors, the violations of expectancy that occur when outcomes differ from expectations are used to modify value and shape behaviour. In the present study, we examined how a wide range of expectancy violations impacted neural signals associated with feedback processing. Participants performed a time estimation task in which they had to guess the duration of one second while their electroencephalogram was recorded. In a key manipulation, we varied task difficulty across the experiment to create a range of different feedback expectancies - reward feedback was either very expected, expected, 50/50, unexpected, or very unexpected. As predicted, the amplitude of the reward positivity, a component of the human event-related brain potential associated with feedback processing, scaled inversely with expectancy (e.g., unexpected feedback yielded a larger reward positivity than expected feedback). Interestingly, the scaling of the reward positivity to outcome expectancy was not linear as would be predicted by some theoretical models. Specifically, we found that the amplitude of the reward positivity was about equivalent for very expected and expected feedback, and for very unexpected and unexpected feedback. As such, our results demonstrate a sigmoidal relationship between reward expectancy and the amplitude of the reward positivity, with interesting implications for theories of reinforcement learning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Measuring population health in Moldova: health expectancies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Avram

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Health measures are decisive for the development and implementation of population health policies. Monitoring health indicators can lead to improvements in health and decrease in the inequalities among subpopulations. The life expectancy at birth for the Moldovan population did not increase considerably during the last decades, due to the social and economic crisis which led to high mortality and poor health. In Moldova, no aggregated health indicators are utilized for health monitoring. Therefore, the authors calculated health indicators to assess the population health and argue their importance. Mortality and subjective data on self-perceived health and self-rated morbidity from the Household Budget Survey was used for constructing period morbidity-mortality tables. Thus, the authors applied Sullivan’s method to calculate the life expectancy in very good/good/fair health and the life expectancy without chronic morbidity for the period 2006 - 2015. The life expectancies in very good/good/fair health showed a compression of morbidity in the older ages for both sexes, and for rural and urban types of residence. The life expectancies without chronic morbidity for males and for urban dwellers demonstrated an expansion of morbidity. Although the life expectancy is slowly increasing, the trends in population health are contradictory, depending on the applied measures. The health expectancy indicators, based on self-perceived health, depict the actual situation in the population health. These indicators are becoming more essential with the ageing process and can be used for the tailoring of social and health policies and services to the real needs of the population.

  3. Optimal no-go theorem on hidden-variable predictions of effect expectations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blass, Andreas; Gurevich, Yuri

    2018-03-01

    No-go theorems prove that, under reasonable assumptions, classical hidden-variable theories cannot reproduce the predictions of quantum mechanics. Traditional no-go theorems proved that hidden-variable theories cannot predict correctly the values of observables. Recent expectation no-go theorems prove that hidden-variable theories cannot predict the expectations of observables. We prove the strongest expectation-focused no-go theorem to date. It is optimal in the sense that the natural weakenings of the assumptions and the natural strengthenings of the conclusion make the theorem fail. The literature on expectation no-go theorems strongly suggests that the expectation-focused approach is more general than the value-focused one. We establish that the expectation approach is not more general.

  4. Changing mortality and average cohort life expectancy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Schoen

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available Period life expectancy varies with changes in mortality, and should not be confused with the life expectancy of those alive during that period. Given past and likely future mortality changes, a recent debate has arisen on the usefulness of the period life expectancy as the leading measure of survivorship. An alternative aggregate measure of period mortality which has been seen as less sensitive to period changes, the cross-sectional average length of life (CAL has been proposed as an alternative, but has received only limited empirical or analytical examination. Here, we introduce a new measure, the average cohort life expectancy (ACLE, to provide a precise measure of the average length of life of cohorts alive at a given time. To compare the performance of ACLE with CAL and with period and cohort life expectancy, we first use population models with changing mortality. Then the four aggregate measures of mortality are calculated for England and Wales, Norway, and Switzerland for the years 1880 to 2000. CAL is found to be sensitive to past and present changes in death rates. ACLE requires the most data, but gives the best representation of the survivorship of cohorts present at a given time.

  5. Do fair value adjustments influence dividend policy?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Goncharov, I.; van Triest, S.

    2011-01-01

    We examine the impact of positive fair value adjustments on dividend policy. If fair value adjustments are transitory in nature and managers are able to assess their implications for future earnings, fair value adjustments in net income is expected to have no distribution consequences. However,

  6. Multiple chronic conditions and life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    DuGoff, Eva H; Canudas-Romo, Vladimir; Buttorff, Christine

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The number of people living with multiple chronic conditions is increasing, but we know little about the impact of multimorbidity on life expectancy. OBJECTIVE: We analyze life expectancy in Medicare beneficiaries by number of chronic conditions. RESEARCH DESIGN: A retrospective cohort...... study using single-decrement period life tables. SUBJECTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries (N=1,372,272) aged 67 and older as of January 1, 2008. MEASURES: Our primary outcome measure is life expectancy. We categorize study subjects by sex, race, selected chronic conditions (heart disease, cancer...... and increasing numbers of comorbid conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Social Security and Medicare actuaries should account for the growing number of beneficiaries with multiple chronic conditions when determining population projections and trust fund solvency....

  7. Policing Challenged and People’s Expectations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thakur Mohan Shrestha

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Peace, security, rule of law, and sustainable development are driving principles in a democratic notion of developing country like Nepal. "3Is': Injustice, Insecurity and Imbalance have been reflecting in the post transitional Nepal. The study came with the objectives of investigating the peoples' perceptions on the adaptation of policing, the challenges and expectation. The information was collected from 1111(N respondents all over the country from different ways of life, applying mixed method questionnaire survey and interview. The research show the need of system based policing like 'intelligence-led'; 'police public partnership', and 'proactive' respectively. The influence of politicization, political instability, external influence, lack of role model leadership, open border, rampant corruption, nepotism-favoritism, lack of research are the major challenges in the security organizations. Furthermore, most educated and high profile personalities have less interest to encourage their generation in police services. People are expecting proficient and accountable police forces. Keywords: Policing, Challenges, People's Expectation

  8. Identifying public expectations of genetic biobanks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Critchley, Christine; Nicol, Dianne; McWhirter, Rebekah

    2017-08-01

    Understanding public priorities for biobanks is vital for maximising utility and efficiency of genetic research and maintaining respect for donors. This research directly assessed the relative importance the public place on different expectations of biobanks. Quantitative and qualitative results from a national sample of 800 Australians revealed that the majority attributed more importance to protecting privacy and ethical conduct than maximising new healthcare benefits, which was in turn viewed as more important than obtaining specific consent, benefit sharing, collaborating and sharing data. A latent class analysis identified two distinct classes displaying different patterns of expectations. One placed higher priority on behaviours that respect the donor ( n = 623), the other on accelerating science ( n = 278). Additional expectations derived from qualitative data included the need for biobanks to be transparent and to prioritise their research focus, educate the public and address commercialisation.

  9. Adolescent pregnancy: do expectations affect intentions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevens-Simon, Catherine; Sheeder, Jeanelle; Beach, Roberta; Harter, Susan

    2005-09-01

    To establish the relationship between expectations about the effects of childbearing on specific aspects of life and the strength of the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. We hypothesized that the absence of negative childbearing expectations is associated with an increase in the odds that sexually active, inadequately contracepting teenage girls are cognitively susceptible to conception. A racially and ethnically diverse group of 351 nulligravida, inadequately contracepting teenagers was studied. Participants responded to 60 items that asked about their expectation about the effects of becoming pregnant and not doing so. Analyses were performed to determine the factorial structure of the childbearing expectations items and their relationship to cognitive susceptibility to conception, defined as the lack of desire to remain nonpregnant. The analysis yielded a 9-factor solution for the childbearing expectations items. All 9 sub-scales exhibited acceptable reliability coefficients, stable factor patterns, and correlated significantly with the desire to remain nonpregnant. A dose-dependent relationship suggestive of causality was also apparent. In stepwise regression the sub-scales that assessed the anticipated effect of childbearing on future plans, self-esteem, and boyfriend relations remained significant and accounted for 56% of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant. The lengthy research instrument was reduced to an 8-item screening tool without loss of psychometric integrity or explanatory power. Childbearing expectations reflect distinct concepts and account for a significant portion of the variance in the desire to remain nonpregnant during adolescence. Thus the 8-item screening tool we validated might be used to formulate a differential diagnosis for the enigmatic behavior of teens who say they do not "want" to become pregnant but do not "mind" doing so enough to try to avoid conceiving by default.

  10. Diverging expectations in buyer-seller relationships

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Poul Houman; Christensen, Poul Rind; Damgaard, Torben

    2009-01-01

    Many firms assume that outsourcing partnerships may allow them to strengthen their overall competitiveness. Lured by its intuitive appeal, several enter into such partnerships, only to realize that they represent a marginal rather than a magical solution to their quest for increasing market...... performance. We explore the proposed impact of diverging relationship norms on relationship expectations using data from an ongoing field study of Danish buyers and Chinese suppliers. We link these diverging expectations to the business practices of Danish buyers and Chinese and their institutional contexts...

  11. FAIR VALUE: UTILITY AND LIMITS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valentin Gabriel Cristea

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the utility and the limits of the fair value. We believe that any new product must be tried and tested before being imposed on the market and must be accepted by all potential users and those who will be affected, directly or indirectly and its advantages, disadvantages, risks, its cost must be predetermined and analyzed in a comprehensive and objective.We ask: Do financial statements at fair value meet users' expectations? The requirement to use fair value pricing model that was carrying was not accompanied by a parallel examination of its impact on the presentation of accounts.

  12. The predictive validity of prospect theory versus expected utility in health utility measurement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abellan-Perpiñan, Jose Maria; Bleichrodt, Han; Pinto-Prades, Jose Luis

    2009-12-01

    Most health care evaluations today still assume expected utility even though the descriptive deficiencies of expected utility are well known. Prospect theory is the dominant descriptive alternative for expected utility. This paper tests whether prospect theory leads to better health evaluations than expected utility. The approach is purely descriptive: we explore how simple measurements together with prospect theory and expected utility predict choices and rankings between more complex stimuli. For decisions involving risk prospect theory is significantly more consistent with rankings and choices than expected utility. This conclusion no longer holds when we use prospect theory utilities and expected utilities to predict intertemporal decisions. The latter finding cautions against the common assumption in health economics that health state utilities are transferable across decision contexts. Our results suggest that the standard gamble and algorithms based on, should not be used to value health.

  13. The Effects of Education Compatibility and Technological Expectancy on E-Learning Acceptance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Jian-Liang

    2011-01-01

    Discerning what influences a student's acceptance of e-learning is still unclear and has not been well investigated. On the basis of the expectancy-value theory, much effort has been put into identifying the effectual factors regarding the technological expectancy of students. However, aside from technological usage, the adoption of an e-learning…

  14. The Long-Term Effects of Early Parent Involvement and Parent Expectation in the USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froiland, John Mark; Peterson, Aubrey; Davison, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Building on social-cognitive theory and the expectancy-value theory, this study indicated that early parent expectations for children’s post-secondary educational attainment have a stronger effect on 8th-grade achievement than home-based parental involvement. With a nationally representative sample of kindergarten students and their parents in the…

  15. Expectations, gender, and norms in migration decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DE Jong, Gordon F

    2000-01-01

    This paper argues that expectations - the process of evaluating the chances for future attainment of valued goals in the home community (stay decision) vs. alternative locations (move decision) - along with family norms about migration are major predictors of intention to move, which in turn is a proximate determinant of migration behaviour. Utilizing longitudinal data from the 1992 and 1994 waves of the Thailand National Migration Survey, logistic regression models show that a strikingly different set of expectations, household demographic indicators, and migrant capital factors were significant determinants of migration intentions for men and women; reflecting Thai gender roles. Migration intentions, in turn, predicted more permanent, but not temporary, survival strategy migration behaviour, while low household income predicted temporary but not more permanent migration behaviour. The measure of perceived family migration norms was a powerful determinant of migration behaviour, but the size of migrant networks was not a statistically significant determinant of either migration intentions or behaviour.

  16. Analyzing paired diagnostic studies by estimating the expected benefit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerke, Oke; Høilund-Carlsen, Poul Flemming; Vach, Werner

    2015-01-01

    is of an indirect nature as test results do influence downstream clinical decisions, but test performance (as characterized by sensitivity, specificity, and the predictive values of a procedure) is, at best, only a surrogate endpoint for patient outcome and does not necessarily translate into it. Not many...... randomized controlled trials have been conducted so far in diagnostic research, and, hence, we need alternative approaches to close the gap between test characteristics and patient outcomes. Several informal approaches have been suggested in order to close this gap, and decision modeling has been advocated...... as a means of obtaining formal approaches. Recently, the expected benefit has been proposed as a quantity that allows a simple formal approach, and we take up this suggestion in this paper. We regard the expected benefit as an estimation problem and consider two approaches to statistical inference. Moreover...

  17. Generic clearance values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bossio, M.C.; Muniz, C.C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper analyzes the Generic Clearance Values established for natural and artificial radionuclides with the objective of evaluating their degree of conservatism in views of adopting them into the regulatory body. Generic clearance values for natural radionuclides have been chosen by experts judgments as the optimum boundary between, on one hand, the ubiquitous unmodified soil concentrations and, on the other hand, activity concentrations in ores, mineral sands, industrial residues and wastes. For artificial radionuclides the clearance levels have been derived from the scenarios postulated in the document 'Safety Reports Series Nr 44' of the IAEA considering quantitative exemption criteria. A set of 8 scenarios were postulated covering external, ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways. For each radionuclide, the generic clearance level was derived as the more restrictive value obtained from the scenarios, that is the lowest ratio between the applicable individual dose and the dose per unit activity concentration (Bq/g). The individual dose was calculated by a formula depending on each scenario and pathway, with different parameters, such as exposure time, dosimetric factors, dilution factor, density of the material, geometric factors, etc. It was concluded that the basis and parameters used for the derivation of the generic clearance levels are quite conservative and therefore its the adoption in Argentina has been recommended. It is expected that their implementation will contribute to optimize the regulatory management system. (author)

  18. Generic Clearance Values

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bossio, M.C.; Muniz, C.C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyzes the Generic Clearance Values established for natural and artificial radionuclides with the objective of evaluating their degree of conservatism in views of adopting them into the regulatory body. Generic clearance values for natural radionuclides have been chosen by experts judgments as the optimum boundary between, on the one hand, the ubiquitous unmodified soil concentrations and, on the other hand, activity concentrations in ores, mineral sands, industrial residues and wastes. For artificial radionuclides the clearance levels have been derived from the scenarios postulated in the document Safety Reports Series 44 of the IAEA considering quantitative exemption criteria. A set of 8 scenarios were postulated covering external, ingestion and inhalation exposure pathways. For each radionuclide, the generic clearance level was derived as the more restrictive value obtained from the scenarios, that is the lowest ratio between the applicable individual dose and the dose per unit activity concentration (Bq/g). The individual dose was calculated by a formula depending on each scenario and pathway, with different parameters, such as exposure time, dosimetric factors, dilution factor, density of the material, geometric factors, etc. It was concluded that the basis and parameters used for the derivation of the generic clearance levels are quite conservative and therefore its the adoption in Argentina has been recommended. It is expected that their implementation will contribute to optimize the regulatory management system. (authors) [es

  19. College for some to college for all: social background, occupational expectations, and educational expectations over time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyette, Kimberly A

    2008-06-01

    The educational expectations of 10th-graders have dramatically increased from 1980 to 2002. Their rise is attributable in part to the changing educational composition of students' parents and related to the educational profiles of their expected occupations. Students whose parents have gone to college are more likely to attend college themselves, and students expect occupations that are more prestigious in 2002 than in 1980. The educational requirements of particular occupation categories have risen only slightly. These analyses also reveal that educational expectations in recent cohorts are more loosely linked to social background and occupational plans than they were in 1980. The declining importance of parents' background and the decoupling of educational and occupational plans, in addition to a strong and significant effect of cohort on educational expectations, suggest that the expectation of four-year college attainment is indeed becoming the norm.

  20. Great Expectations: How Role Expectations and Role Experiences Relate to Perceptions of Group Cohesion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Alex J; Eys, Mark A; Irving, P Gregory

    2016-04-01

    Many athletes experience a discrepancy between the roles they expect to fulfill and the roles they eventually occupy. Drawing from met expectations theory, we applied response surface methodology to examine how role expectations, in relation to role experiences, influence perceptions of group cohesion among Canadian Interuniversity Sport athletes (N = 153). On the basis of data from two time points, as athletes approached and exceeded their role contribution expectations, they reported higher perceptions of task cohesion. Furthermore, as athletes approached and exceeded their social involvement expectations, they reported higher perceptions of social cohesion. These response surface patterns-pertaining to task and social cohesion-were driven by the positive influence of role experiences. On the basis of the interplay between athletes' role experiences and their perception of the group environment, efforts to improve team dynamics may benefit from focusing on improving the quality of role experiences, in conjunction with developing realistic role expectations.

  1. A multiresolution model of rhythmic expectancy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smith, L.M.; Honing, H.; Miyazaki, K.; Hiraga, Y.; Adachi, M.; Nakajima, Y.; Tsuzaki, M.

    2008-01-01

    We describe a computational model of rhythmic cognition that predicts expected onset times. A dynamic representation of musical rhythm, the multiresolution analysis using the continuous wavelet transform is used. This representation decomposes the temporal structure of a musical rhythm into time

  2. What characterises the expectations of gamblers?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Connie

    the gamblers have erroneous thoughts of gambling, their subjective estimates of the return rates of the games, expected gains and motives of consumption and investment for playing. These aspects will help to create a picture of how rational the gamblers are and whether there are significant differences between...

  3. Expecting Too Much of Performance Pay?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Susan Moore; Papay, John P.

    2010-01-01

    Pay for performance is not a new idea, and reformers should not ignore the dismal record of merit pay over the past century. Initially adopted with a flourish of expectations during several waves of popularity in the past, every plan eventually fell into disuse. These plans proved to be unexpectedly costly and cumbersome to run. They often…

  4. Cardinal Coordinate Independence for Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wakker, P.

    1984-01-01

    A representation theorem for binary relations on (Re)n is derived. It is interpreted in the context of decision making under uncertainty. There we consider the existence of a subjective expected utility model to represent a preference relation of a person on the set of bets for money on a finite

  5. Cardinal Coordinate Independence for Expected Utility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.P. Wakker (Peter)

    1984-01-01

    textabstractA representation theorem for binary relations on n is derived. It is interpreted in the context of decision making under uncertainty. There we consider the existence of a subjective expected utility model to represent a preference relation of a person on the set of bets for money on a

  6. Characterizing Student Expectations: A Small Empirical Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warwick, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a small empirical study (n = 130), in which undergraduate students in the Business Faculty of a UK university were asked to express views and expectations relating to the study of a mathematics. Factor analysis is used to identify latent variables emerging from clusters of the measured variables and these are…

  7. Provider expectations and father involvement: learning from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-12-17

    Dec 17, 2013 ... in Gauteng's poor and black communities with fathers that did not ... affect fathers' ability to live up to provider expectations. ... On the contrary, father absence can exacerbate household poverty and “can ... socio-emotional development of the children, although such effects are not uniformly .... explanation.

  8. Expected energy production evaluation for photovoltaic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ding, Yi; Østergaard, Jacob; Peng, Wang

    2011-01-01

    A photovoltaic (PV) system consists of many solar panels, which are connected in series, parallel or a combination of both. Energy production for the PV system with various configurations is different. In this paper, a methodology is developed to evaluate and analyze the expected energy production...

  9. Enhanced Patient Expectant and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-07-01

    Breast Cancer Nausea and Vomiting Expectancy Patient Information Antiemetic Side Effect 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 15 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY ...CLASSIFICATION OF REPORT Unclassified 18. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE Unclassified 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT...5-HT3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy-related vomiting, this has

  10. Enhanced Patient Expectation and Antiemetic Drug Efficacy

    Science.gov (United States)

    1999-07-01

    NUMBER OF PAGES 15 Breast Cancer Expectancy Antiemetic Nausea and Vomiting Patient Information Side Effect 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 18... SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS 19. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION 20. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT OF REPORT PAGE OF ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified...by the introduction of the 5-HT 3 receptor antagonist class of antiemetics (ondansetron, granisetron , tropisitron) have greatly reduced chemotherapy

  11. Stolarsky's inequality for Choquet-like expectation

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Agahi, H.; Mesiar, Radko

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 66, č. 5 (2016), s. 1235-1248 ISSN 0139-9918 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Choquet-like expectation * Stolarsky’s inequality * Minkowski’s inequality Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.346, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/mesiar-0469701.pdf

  12. Expectations and voluntary attrition in nursing students.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Donnell, Hugh

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a series of findings generated during a larger study which aimed to develop a theoretical understanding of the reasons why nursing students voluntarily leave pre-registration nursing programmes. In this study, significant incongruence was found to exist between student expectations of pre-registration nursing programmes and the reality of these programmes following entry. The resulting dissonance was identified as an important factor in student decisions to voluntarily withdraw. A single case study design was selected to explore the causes of voluntary attrition in nursing students within a School of Nursing and Midwifery. The study population was obtained through purposeful sampling and consisted of 15 students who had previously voluntarily withdrawn from pre-registration nursing programmes. A semi-structured interview method was used to collect data from study participants. The interview schedule developed for use in the study reflected the key components of the conceptual model of higher education (HE) student attrition (Tinto, 1975, 1987, 1993). All interviews were tape recorded to facilitate later transcription. The Cyclical or Interactive Model of Qualitative Research (Miles and Huberman, 1994) was used to analyse data collected from study participants. This paper describes the unrealistic range of expectations which nursing students have of nursing, the information sources and experiences which inform student expectations and how ambiguous expectations contributed to voluntarily attrition. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Matching Expectations for Successful University Student Volunteering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paull, Megan; Omari, Maryam; MacCallum, Judith; Young, Susan; Walker, Gabrielle; Holmes, Kirsten; Haski-Leventha, Debbie; Scott, Rowena

    2017-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of expectation formation and matching for university student volunteers and their hosts. Design/methodology/approach: This research involved a multi-stage data collection process including interviews with student volunteers, and university and host representatives from six…

  14. Heterogeneous expectations in monetary DSGE models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Massaro, D.

    2013-01-01

    This paper derives a general New Keynesian framework with heterogeneous expectations by explicitly solving the micro-foundations underpinning the model. The resulting reduced form is analytically tractable and encompasses the representative rational agent benchmark as a special case. We specify a

  15. Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.H.M. Van Baal (Pieter); F. Peters (Frederik); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractForecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. Of relevance to these debates are inequalities in LE by education. In this paper, we present a method of forecasting LE for different educational groups

  16. Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.; Sonnemans, J.; Tuinstra, J.; van de Velden, H.

    2008-01-01

    We present results on expectation formation in a controlled experimental environment. In each period subjects are asked to predict the next price of a risky asset. The realized market price is derived from an unknown market equilibrium equation with feedback from individual forecasts. In most

  17. Life expectancies for individuals with psychiatric diagnoses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hannerz, H; Borgå, P; Borritz, M

    2001-09-01

    The aim of the study was to estimate life expectancies in different diagnostic groups for individuals treated as inpatients at Swedish psychiatric clinics. All individuals, older than 18 y and alive on the first of January 1983, who had been registered in the National Hospital Discharge Registry by a psychiatric clinic in 1978-82, were monitored for mortality during 1983 by using the National Cause of Death Registry. The study group consisted of 91 385 men and 77 217 women. The patients were divided into nine diagnostic groups according to the principal diagnosis registered at the latest discharge. Actuarial mathematics was used to construct life expectancy tables, which present the number of years expected to live, by gender and diagnostic group. Expectancies of life were significantly shortened for both genders and in all nine diagnostic groups (with one exception). Mental disorders in general are life shortening. This fact should be recognised in community health when setting health priorities. It should also be addressed in curricula as well as in treatment and preventive programmes.

  18. Binary compact object inspiral: Detection expectations

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... events/yr. These predictions, for the first time, bring the expectations for DNS detections by initial LIGO .... our galactic event rate out to the local group. ..... VK thanks her collaborators in the work reviewed here: C Kim, P Grandclément,. C Ihm ...

  19. Macroeconomics after Two Decades of Rational Expectations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCallum, Bennett T.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses real business cycle analysis, growth theory, and other economic concepts in the context of the rational expectations revolution in macroeconomics. Focuses on post-1982 research. Concludes that the rejuvenation of growth analysis is an encouraging development because it could lead to changes in welfare policy. (CFR)

  20. Expectant Parent Classes: A Case Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beebe, E. Rick

    1978-01-01

    Mental health problems among children resulting from poor parenting, a high neonatal death rate, and a low level of medical education in the county provided impetus for developing a primary prevention program--Expectant Parent Program. This article summarizes the development, content, staff, funding, and results of the program. (Author)