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Sample records for exercise predicts mortality

  1. Delayed heart rate recovery after adenosine stress testing with supplemental arm exercise predicts mortality.

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    Akutsu, Yasushi; Gregory, Shawn A; Kardan, Arash; Zervos, Gerasimos D; Thomas, Gregory S; Gewirtz, Henry; Yasuda, Tsunehiro

    2009-01-01

    Delayed heart rate (HR) recovery after treadmill exercise testing predicts mortality. Patients with suspected ischemic heart disease who cannot perform adequate treadmill exercise are typically evaluated with pharmacological stress myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) studies, but little prognostic significance has been attributed to the hemodynamic response to vasodilator stress testing with low-level exercise. We hypothesized that a delay in HR recovery after adenosine stress testing with arm exercise is associated with increased mortality. Technetium 99m-Sestamibi MPI was performed in 1,455 consecutive patients (70 +/- 12 years, 50.2% men) with adenosine stress and supplemental arm exercise. HRs were recorded at rest, continuously during infusion, and then 5 minutes post-infusion. Delayed HR recovery was defined as a decline of mortality (16.5% vs 5.3% in those with normal HR recovery, P testing with arm exercise is a readily available and powerful predictor of all-cause mortality.

  2. Prediction of mortality and major cardiac events by exercise echocardiography in patients with normal exercise electrocardiographic testing.

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    Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Peteiro, Jesús; Alvarez-García, Nemesio; Broullón, Francisco J; Mosquera, Victor X; García-Bueno, Lourdes; Ferro, Luis; Castro-Beiras, Alfonso

    2009-05-26

    We sought to assess the value of exercise echocardiography (EE) for predicting outcome in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease and normal exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) testing. The prognostic value of EE in patients with normal exercise ECG testing has not been characterized. We studied 4,004 consecutive patients (2,358 men, mean age [+/- SD] 59.6 +/- 12.5 years) with interpretable ECG who underwent treadmill EE and did not develop chest pain or ischemic ECG abnormalities during the tests. Wall motion score index (WMSI) was evaluated at rest and with exercise, and the difference (DeltaWMSI) was calculated. Ischemia was defined as the development of new or worsening wall motion abnormalities with exercise. End points were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events (MACE). Overall, 669 patients (16.7%) developed ischemia with exercise. During a mean follow-up of 4.5 +/- 3.4 years, 313 patients died, and 183 patients had a MACE before any revascularization procedure. The 5-year mortality and MACE rates were 6.4% and 4.2% in patients without ischemia versus 12.1% and 10.1% in those with ischemia, respectively (p mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.73, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.40 to 5.32, p = 0.003) and MACE (HR: 3.59, 95% CI: 1.42 to 9.07, p = 0.007). The addition of the EE results to the clinical, resting echocardiographic and exercise hemodynamic data significantly increased the global chi-square of the models for the prediction of mortality (p = 0.005) and MACE (p = 0.009). The use of EE provides significant prognostic information for predicting mortality and MACE in patients with interpretable ECG and normal exercise ECG testing.

  3. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia

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    Ana Carla Pereira de Araujo

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1 or positive (G2 for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%. During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016. The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022 and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p < 0. 001 and p = 0.001, respectively. Conclusion: Physical stress echocardiography provides additional prognostic information in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia.

  4. Physical Stress Echocardiography: Prediction of Mortality and Cardiac Events in Patients with Exercise Test showing Ischemia.

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    Araujo, Ana Carla Pereira de; Santos, Bruno F de Oliveira; Calasans, Flavia Ricci; Pinto, Ibraim M Francisco; Oliveira, Daniel Pio de; Melo, Luiza Dantas; Andrade, Stephanie Macedo; Tavares, Irlaneide da Silva; Sousa, Antonio Carlos Sobral; Oliveira, Joselina Luzia Menezes

    2014-11-01

    Background: Studies have demonstrated the diagnostic accuracy and prognostic value of physical stress echocardiography in coronary artery disease. However, the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia is limited. Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of physical stress echocardiography in the prediction of mortality and major cardiac events in patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia. Methods: This is a retrospective cohort in which 866 consecutive patients with exercise test positive for myocardial ischemia, and who underwent physical stress echocardiography were studied. Patients were divided into two groups: with physical stress echocardiography negative (G1) or positive (G2) for myocardial ischemia. The endpoints analyzed were all-cause mortality and major cardiac events, defined as cardiac death and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction. Results: G2 comprised 205 patients (23.7%). During the mean 85.6 ± 15.0-month follow-up, there were 26 deaths, of which six were cardiac deaths, and 25 non-fatal myocardial infarction cases. The independent predictors of mortality were: age, diabetes mellitus, and positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.20 - 6.01; p = 0.016). The independent predictors of major cardiac events were: age, previous coronary artery disease, positive physical stress echocardiography (hazard ratio: 2.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.15 - 6.53; p = 0.022) and absence of a 10% increase in ejection fraction. All-cause mortality and the incidence of major cardiac events were significantly higher in G2 (p infarto agudo do miocárdio não fatal. Resultados: O G2 constituiu-se de 205 (23,7%) pacientes. Durante o seguimento médio de 85,6 ± 15,0 meses, ocorreram 26 óbitos, sendo seis por causa cardíaca, e 25 casos de infarto agudo do miocárdio não fatais. Os preditores independentes de mortalidade foram idade

  5. Global risk scores and exercise testing for predicting all-cause mortality in a preventive medicine program.

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    Aktas, Mehmet K; Ozduran, Volkan; Pothier, Claire E; Lang, Richard; Lauer, Michael S

    2004-09-22

    The usefulness of exercise stress test results and global cardiovascular risk systems for predicting all-cause mortality in asymptomatic individuals seen in clinical settings is unclear. To determine the validity for prediction of all-cause mortality of the Framingham Risk Score and of a recently described European global scoring system Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) for cardiovascular mortality among asymptomatic individuals evaluated in a clinical setting and to determine the potential prognostic value of exercise stress testing once these baseline risks are known. Prospective cohort study of 3554 asymptomatic adults between the ages of 50 and 75 years who underwent exercise stress testing as part of an executive health program between October 1990 and December 2002; participants were followed up for a mean of 8 years. Global risk based on the Framingham Risk Score and the European SCORE. Prospectively recorded exercise stress test result abnormalities included impaired physical fitness, abnormal heart rate recovery, ventricular ectopy, and ST-segment abnormalities. The primary end point was all-cause mortality. There were 114 deaths. The c-index, which corresponds to receiver operating characteristic curve values, and the Akaike Information Criteria found that the European SCORE was superior to the Framingham Risk Score in estimating global mortality risk. In a multivariable model, independent predictors of death were a higher SCORE (for 1% predicted increase in absolute risk, relative risk [RR], 1.07; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.09; Pmortality. Among patients in the highest tertile from the SCORE, an abnormal exercise stress test result, defined as either impaired functional capacity or an abnormal heart rate recovery, identified a mortality risk of more than 1% per year. Exercise stress testing when combined with the European global risk SCORE may be useful for stratifying risk in asymptomatic individuals in a comprehensive executive

  6. Comparison of machine learning techniques to predict all-cause mortality using fitness data: the Henry ford exercIse testing (FIT) project.

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    Sakr, Sherif; Elshawi, Radwa; Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Keteyian, Steven J; Blaha, Michael J; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

    2017-12-19

    Prior studies have demonstrated that cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a strong marker of cardiovascular health. Machine learning (ML) can enhance the prediction of outcomes through classification techniques that classify the data into predetermined categories. The aim of this study is to present an evaluation and comparison of how machine learning techniques can be applied on medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness and how the various techniques differ in terms of capabilities of predicting medical outcomes (e.g. mortality). We use data of 34,212 patients free of known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems Between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 10-year follow-up. Seven machine learning classification techniques were evaluated: Decision Tree (DT), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Naïve Bayesian Classifier (BC), Bayesian Network (BN), K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) and Random Forest (RF). In order to handle the imbalanced dataset used, the Synthetic Minority Over-Sampling Technique (SMOTE) is used. Two set of experiments have been conducted with and without the SMOTE sampling technique. On average over different evaluation metrics, SVM Classifier has shown the lowest performance while other models like BN, BC and DT performed better. The RF classifier has shown the best performance (AUC = 0.97) among all models trained using the SMOTE sampling. The results show that various ML techniques can significantly vary in terms of its performance for the different evaluation metrics. It is also not necessarily that the more complex the ML model, the more prediction accuracy can be achieved. The prediction performance of all models trained with SMOTE is much better than the performance of models trained without SMOTE. The study shows the potential of machine learning methods for predicting all-cause mortality using cardiorespiratory fitness

  7. QT dynamics early after exercise as a predictor of mortality

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    Johnson, Nils P.; Holly, Thomas A.; Goldberger, Jeffrey J.

    2010-01-01

    Background Exercise and QT dynamics during ambulatory monitoring impact mortality in a variety of populations. Heart rate recovery (HRR) after exercise is a known strong predictor of mortality. Objective We assessed the independent, prognostic significance of the QT response to changing heart rate (QT dynamics) during recovery from exercise. Methods The cohort included patients referred for treadmill exercise stress over a 5 year period. Patients had to have at least 4 ECG tracings within 5 minutes of peak exercise. One had to be recorded 60 seconds into recovery to calculate the HRR. Linear regression of the QT-RR relation during recovery was used to predict QT interval at cycle lengths of 500 and 600 ms (QT-500 and QT-600). Only studies with an R2≥0.9 (72%) were retained. Optimal binary cutpoints were chosen. All-cause mortality was determined from either the Social Security death index or hospital records. Results 2,994 patients met inclusion criteria. 228 (7.6%) died during an average follow-up of 7.6±1.9 years. Abnormal QT-500 (>316 ms) was the strongest univariate QT dynamics predictor in a Cox proportional hazards model (hazard ratio=2.13, pQT interval at 500 ms (120 beats/min) during recovery from exercise independently predicts all-cause mortality. Because QT dynamics in recovery incorporates information on both repolarization and autonomic responsiveness, its role in risk prediction for sudden cardiac death should be further explored. PMID:20478405

  8. Exercise testing parameters associated with post lung transplant mortality.

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    Armstrong, Hilary F; Garber, Carol Ewing; Bartels, Matthew N

    2012-04-30

    Exercise performance during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) is a predictor of all-cause mortality in the general population and in patients with coronary heart disease. Mortality beyond one-year after lung transplantation (LTx) is due to multiple causes, is difficult to predict, and has not been fully evaluated in LTx recipients. We hypothesized that, similar to other populations, exercise performance after LTx may be associated with mortality. A retrospective review of all LTx recipients who underwent CPET between 2001 and 2009 was conducted. Chosen endpoint was re-transplantation or death. Survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional-hazard models in 183 patients. After adjusting for bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) score, for every 10% increment in percent-predicted peak watts or percent-predicted peak oxygen uptake patients were approximately 23% less likely to experience an endpoint. We conclude that after adjusting for BOS score, lower exercise capacity one-year post LTx is independently associated with mortality. This may imply a protective role of exercise capacity in the LTx population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Using implicit attitudes of exercise importance to predict explicit exercise dependence symptoms and exercise behaviors

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    Forrest, Lauren N.; Smith, April R.; Fussner, Lauren M.; Dodd, Dorian R.; Clerkin, Elise M.

    2015-01-01

    Objectives ”Fast” (i.e., implicit) processing is relatively automatic; “slow” (i.e., explicit) processing is relatively controlled and can override automatic processing. These different processing types often produce different responses that uniquely predict behaviors. In the present study, we tested if explicit, self-reported symptoms of exercise dependence and an implicit association of exercise as important predicted exercise behaviors and change in problematic exercise attitudes. Design We assessed implicit attitudes of exercise importance and self-reported symptoms of exercise dependence at Time 1. Participants reported daily exercise behaviors for approximately one month, and then completed a Time 2 assessment of self-reported exercise dependence symptoms. Method Undergraduate males and females (Time 1, N = 93; Time 2, N = 74) tracked daily exercise behaviors for one month and completed an Implicit Association Test assessing implicit exercise importance and subscales of the Exercise Dependence Questionnaire (EDQ) assessing exercise dependence symptoms. Results Implicit attitudes of exercise importance and Time 1 EDQ scores predicted Time 2 EDQ scores. Further, implicit exercise importance and Time 1 EDQ scores predicted daily exercise intensity while Time 1 EDQ scores predicted the amount of days exercised. Conclusion Implicit and explicit processing appear to uniquely predict exercise behaviors and attitudes. Given that different implicit and explicit processes may drive certain exercise factors (e.g., intensity and frequency, respectively), these behaviors may contribute to different aspects of exercise dependence. PMID:26195916

  10. Is exercise protective against influenza-associated mortality?

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    Chit-Ming Wong

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of physical exercise on influenza-associated mortality. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected information about exercise habits and other lifestyles, and socioeconomic and demographic status, the underlying cause of death of 24,656 adults (21% aged 30-64, 79% aged 65 or above who died in 1998 in Hong Kong, and the weekly proportion of specimens positive for influenza A (H3N1 and H1N1 and B isolations during the same period. We assessed the excess risks (ER of influenza-associated mortality due to all-natural causes, cardiovascular diseases, or respiratory disease among different levels of exercise: never/seldom (less than once per month, low/moderate (once per month to three times per week, and frequent (four times or more per week by Poisson regression. We also assessed the differences in ER between exercise groups by case-only logistic regression. For all the mortality outcomes under study in relation to each 10% increase in weekly proportion of specimens positive for influenza A+B, never/seldom exercise (as reference was associated with 5.8% to 8.5% excess risks (ER of mortality (P<0.0001, while low/moderate exercise was associated with ER which were 4.2% to 6.4% lower than those of the reference (P<0.001 for all-natural causes; P = 0.001 for cardiovascular; and P = 0.07 for respiratory mortality. Frequent exercise was not different from the reference (change in ER -0.8% to 1.7%, P = 0.30 to 0.73. CONCLUSION: When compared with never or seldom exercise, exercising at low to moderate frequency is beneficial with lower influenza-associated mortality.

  11. Arm exercise stress perfusion imaging predicts clinical outcome.

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    Chan, Albert K; Ilias-Khan, Nasreen A; Xian, Hong; Inman, Cindi; Martin, Wade H

    2011-12-01

    Treadmill exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs) and stress hemodynamic, electrocardiographic (ECG), and myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) responses are independently predictive of adverse clinical events. However, limited data exist for arm ergometer stress testing (AXT) in patients who cannot perform leg exercise because of lower extremity disabilities. We sought to determine the extent to which AXT METs, hemodynamic, ECG, and MPI responses to arm exercise add independent incremental value to demographic and clinical variables for prediction of all-cause mortality, myocardial infarction (MI), or late coronary revascularization, individually or as a composite. A prospective cohort of 186 patients aged 64 ± 10 (SD) yr, unable to perform lower extremity exercise, underwent AXT MPI for clinical reasons between 1997 and 2002, and were followed for 62 ± 23 mo, to an endpoint of death or 12/31/2006. Average annual rates were 5.4% for mortality, 2.2% for MI, 2.5% for late coronary revascularization, and 8.0% for combined events. After adjustment for age and clinical variables, AXT METs [P ECG (P ECG (P leg exercise because of lower extremity disabilities, AXT METs are as important as MPI for prediction of mortality alone and death and MI combined, and a positive AXT ECG prognosticates MI alone and death and MI combined.

  12. Improved reclassification of mortality risk by assessment of physical activity in patients referred for exercise testing.

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    Myers, Jonathan; Nead, Kevin T; Chang, Peter; Abella, Joshua; Kokkinos, Peter; Leeper, Nicholas J

    2015-04-01

    Inability to meet minimal guidelines on physical activity is associated with poor health outcomes, but quantifying activity can be complex. We studied whether a simple question regarding participation in regular activity improves risk classification for all-cause mortality. Maximal exercise testing was performed in 6962 patients (mean age, 58.9 ± 11 years) for clinical reasons. Subjects also were assessed for participation in regular activity using a simple yes/no response to meeting minimal recommendations on activity. The incremental value of adding a simple physical activity assessment to clinical, demographic, and exercise test information to predict mortality was determined using Cox proportional hazards models, net reclassification improvement, and integrated discrimination index during a mean follow-up of 9.7 ± 4 years. Subjects who did not meet the minimal guidelines on activity had a lower exercise capacity (7.4 ± 4.3 vs 9.1 ± 3.6 metabolic equivalents, P mortality rate (2.42% vs 1.71%, P mortality (hazard ratio, 1.36; 95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.51, P test variables, fitness had the highest C-index for predicting mortality (0.72, P mortality among patients who are referred for exercise testing. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  13. Predictive factors of mortality in Fournier's gangrene.

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    Jerraya, Hichem; Fehri, Hichem; Khalfallah, Mehdi; Abdesselem, Mohamed Morched; Dziri, Chadli

    2015-12-01

    Fournier's Gangrene is a rare but serious condition accounting for a high death rate. Several predictive factors of mortality have been reported from retrospective series but more often these factors vary from one study to another. The aim of this work is to assess the clinical and therapeutic characteristics of patients treated for Fournier's gangrene in order to determine the predictive factors of mortality. The study enrolled retrospectively all patients admitted in the surgery 'B' unit of Charles Nicolle hospital for Fournier's gangrene during the period ranging between January, 1st, 2000 and December, 31st, 2010. The diagnosis of Fournier's gangrene has been retained each time a tissue necrosis has been noted in perineum, whether during physical examination or intraoperatively. For all patients, clinical variables and treatments were collected. A comparative study was carried out between the group of survivors and deceased. Forty one patients have been included. The univariate analysis identified the following predictive factors of mortality: extension of lesions outside the perineum (p=0,002), severe sepsis and/or a septic shock (p=0,006), heart rate greater than 90/min (p=0,001), white blood cell count higher than 20000/mm3 (p=0,043) and urea level higher than 7 mmol/l (p=0,009). The multivariate analysis retained the extension of gangrene beyond the perineum as an independent predictive factor of mortality (p=0,004). Improving prognosis of Fournier's gangrene requires early diagnosis ahead of the extension of lesions beside the perineum which is associated with a higher mortality risk despite optimal care and treatment.

  14. Variables Measured During Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing as Predictors of Mortality in Chronic Systolic Heart Failure.

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    Keteyian, Steven J; Patel, Mahesh; Kraus, William E; Brawner, Clinton A; McConnell, Timothy R; Piña, Ileana L; Leifer, Eric S; Fleg, Jerome L; Blackburn, Gordon; Fonarow, Gregg C; Chase, Paul J; Piner, Lucy; Vest, Marianne; O'Connor, Christopher M; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Walsh, Mary N; Ewald, Gregory; Bensimhon, Dan; Russell, Stuart D

    2016-02-23

    Data from a cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) test are used to determine prognosis in patients with chronic heart failure (HF). However, few published studies have simultaneously compared the relative prognostic strength of multiple CPX variables. The study sought to describe the strength of the association among variables measured during a CPX test and all-cause mortality in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), including the influence of sex and patient effort, as measured by respiratory exchange ratio (RER). Among patients (n = 2,100, 29% women) enrolled in the HF-ACTION (HF-A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of exercise traiNing) trial, 10 CPX test variables measured at baseline (e.g., peak oxygen uptake [Vo2], exercise duration, percent predicted peak Vo2 [%ppVo2], ventilatory efficiency) were examined. Over a median follow-up of 32 months, there were 357 deaths. All CPX variables, except RER, were related to all-cause mortality (all p mortality. Peak Vo2 (ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)) was the strongest predictor of mortality among men (Wald chi-square: 129) and exercise duration among women (Wald chi-square: 41). Multivariable analyses showed that %ppVo2, exercise duration, and peak Vo2 (ml·kg(-1)·min(-1)) were similarly able to predict and discriminate mortality. In men, a 10% 1-year mortality rate corresponded to a peak Vo2 of 10.9 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1) versus 5.3 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1) in women. Peak Vo2, exercise duration, and % ppVo2 carried the strongest ability to predict and discriminate the likelihood of death in patients with HFrEF. The prognosis associated with a given peak Vo2 differed by sex. (Exercise Training Program to Improve Clinical Outcomes in Individuals With Congestive Heart Failure; NCT00047437). Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Copeptin Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients.

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    Krychtiuk, Konstantin A; Honeder, Maria C; Lenz, Max; Maurer, Gerald; Wojta, Johann; Heinz, Gottfried; Huber, Kurt; Speidl, Walter S

    2017-01-01

    Critically ill patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit exhibit a high mortality rate irrespective of the cause of admission. Besides its role in fluid and electrolyte balance, vasopressin has been described as a stress hormone. Copeptin, the C-terminal portion of provasopressin mirrors vasopressin levels and has been described as a reliable biomarker for the individual's stress level and was associated with outcome in various disease entities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission are associated with 30-day mortality. In this single-center prospective observational study including 225 consecutive patients admitted to a tertiary medical ICU at a university hospital, blood was taken at ICU admission and copeptin levels were measured using a commercially available automated sandwich immunofluorescent assay. Median acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II score was 20 and 30-day mortality was 25%. Median copeptin admission levels were significantly higher in non-survivors as compared with survivors (77.6 IQR 30.7-179.3 pmol/L versus 45.6 IQR 19.6-109.6 pmol/L; p = 0.025). Patients with serum levels of copeptin in the third tertile at admission had a 2.4-fold (95% CI 1.2-4.6; p = 0.01) increased mortality risk as compared to patients in the first tertile. When analyzing patients according to cause of admission, copeptin was only predictive of 30-day mortality in patients admitted due to medical causes as opposed to those admitted after cardiac surgery, as medical patients with levels of copeptin in the highest tertile had a 3.3-fold (95% CI 1.66.8, p = 0.002) risk of dying independent from APACHE II score, primary diagnosis, vasopressor use and need for mechanical ventilation. Circulating levels of copeptin at ICU admission independently predict 30-day mortality in patients admitted to a medical ICU.

  16. Exercise-induced hypertension, cardiovascular events, and mortality in patients undergoing exercise stress testing: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

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    Schultz, Martin G; Otahal, Petr; Cleland, Verity J; Blizzard, Leigh; Marwick, Thomas H; Sharman, James E

    2013-03-01

    The prognostic relevance of a hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is ill-defined in individuals undergoing exercise stress testing. The study described here was intended to provide a systematic review and meta-analysis of published literature to determine the value of exercise-related blood pressure (BP) (independent of office BP) for predicting cardiovascular (CV) events and mortality. Online databases were searched for published longitudinal studies reporting exercise-related BP and CV events and mortality rates. We identified for review 12 longitudinal studies with a total of 46,314 individuals without significant coronary artery disease, with total CV event and mortality rates recorded over a mean follow-up of 15.2±4.0 years. After adjustment for age, office BP, and CV risk factors, an HRE at moderate exercise intensity carried a 36% greater rate of CV events and mortality (95% CI, 1.02-1.83, P = 0.039) than that of subjects without an HRE. Additionally, each 10mm Hg increase in systolic BP during exercise at moderate intensity was accompanied by a 4% increase in CV events and mortality, independent of office BP, age, or CV risk factors (95% CI, 1.01-1.07, P = 0.02). Systolic BP at maximal workload was not significantly associated with the outcome of an increased rate of CV, whether analyzed as a categorical (HR=1.49, 95% CI, 0.90-2.46, P = 0.12) or a continuous (HR=1.01, 95% CI, 0.98-1.04, P = 0.53) variable. An HRE at moderate exercise intensity during exercise stress testing is an independent risk factor for CV events and mortality. This highlights the need to determine underlying pathophysiological mechanisms of exercise-induced hypertension.

  17. Exercise capacity and mortality - a follow-up study of 3033 subjects referred to clinical exercise testing.

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    Korpelainen, Raija; Lämsä, Jenni; Kaikkonen, Kaisu M; Korpelainen, Juha; Laukkanen, Jari; Palatsi, Ilkka; Takala, Timo E; Ikäheimo, Tiina M; Hautala, Arto J

    2016-08-01

    Exercise stress testing is used as a diagnostic and prognostic tool. We determined the prognostic significance of exercise test findings for cardiovascular (CVD) and all-cause mortality in men and women. 3033 subjects underwent a symptom-limited bicycle exercise test. Exercise capacity was defined as the mean of last four minutes of exercise workload. During an average follow-up of 19 years, 186 (11.6%) CVD and 370 (20.6%) all-cause deaths in men and 57 (5.0%) CVD and 155 (12.5%) all-cause deaths in women occurred. Among exercise test variables (workload, ECG, BP, HR), exercise capacity was the strongest predictor of mortality. Low exercise capacity (1st quartile) was associated with a hazard ratio of 4.2 (95% CI: 1.7, 10.8) for CVD and 4.0 (95% CI: 2.5, 6.4) for all-cause mortality compared with high exercise capacity (4th quartile) among men and in women with a 5.4-fold (95% CI: 1.2, 24.0) risk for CVD and 2.3-fold (95% CI: 1.2, 4.3) risk for all-cause mortality, respectively. The relationship between other exercise test variables and mortality was much weaker. Among exercise test variables exercise capacity was the strongest predictor of CVD and all-cause mortality in both genders, and especially CVD deaths in women. Key Messages Exercise capacity was the most powerful predictor of CVD and all-cause mortality in both men and women. Low exercise capacity is a strong predictor of CVD death, especially among women.

  18. Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

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    Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

    2017-07-01

    Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM72 II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM72 II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Anxiety Predicts Mortality in ICD Patients

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    Kikkenborg Berg, Selina; Caspar Thygesen, Lau; Hastrup Svendsen, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Although highly effective in preventing arrhythmic death, patients receiving an implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) may still experience psychological difficulties such as anxiety, depression, and reduced quality of life. The objectives of this study were to describe patient......-reported outcomes among ICD patients: (1) compared to a matched healthy population, (2) compared by ICD indication, (3) factors predicting patient-reported outcomes, and (4) if patient-reported outcomes predicted mortality. METHODS: The study was a mailed survey to an unselected group of patients 18+ years old...... receiving ICD between January 1, 2011 and June 30, 2011 (n = 499). The following instruments were used: SF-36, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale, HeartQoL, EQ-5D, and the Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory. RESULTS: The response rate was 72%. Mean age was 65.5 years and 82% patients were males. Fifty...

  20. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing in small abdominal aortic aneurysm: profile, safety, and mortality estimates.

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    Myers, Jonathan; Powell, Alyssa; Smith, Kimberly; Fonda, Holly; Dalman, Ronald L

    2011-06-01

    Few data are available regarding exercise testing in patients with abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) disease. The purpose of this study was to evaluate safety and to characterize the hemodynamic and cardiopulmonary (CPX) response to exercise in a large group of patients with AAA. Three hundred and six patients with AAA ≥3.0 to ≤5.0 cm (mean 72 ± 8 years) underwent CPX as part of a randomized trial of exercise training. CPX and hemodynamic responses, ischemic events, rhythm disturbances, and risk estimates based on treadmill scores were quantified and compared to an age-matched group of 2155 veterans referred for exercise testing for clinical reasons. Peak VO(2) was similar between patients with AAA and the referral group (20.0 ± 6 ml/kg/min; 77 percent of age-predicted and 20.3 ± 7 ml/kg/min; 80 percent of age-predicted, respectively). The incidence of exercise-induced hypotension and hypertension was higher in AAA patients versus the referral group (2.9 and 3.6 percent vs mortality, respectively, were similar between groups. Patients with AAA have a slightly higher incidence of hyper- and hypotensive responses to exercise than age-matched referrals, but no serious events related to CPX occurred. AAA patients can undergo maximal CPX safely and have risk scores based on treadmill test results that are similar to age-matched referral subjects. These findings extend recent studies using sub-maximal evaluations to stratify risk in patients considered for surgery, and support the routine use of exercise testing for risk evaluation and the functional assessment of patients with AAA.

  1. Sonic Boom Prediction Exercise: Experimental Comparisons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Eugene; Cheung, Samson; Edwards, Thomas

    1999-01-01

    The success of a future High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) depends on the ability to accurately assess and, possibly, modify the sonic boom signatures of potential designs. In 1992, the Sonic Boom Steering Committee initiated a prediction exercise to assess the current computational capabilities for the accurate and efficient prediction of sonic boom signatures and loudness levels. A progress report of this effort was given at the Sonic Boom Workshop held at NASA Ames Research Center in 1993 where predictions from CFD and Modified Linear Theory (MLT) methods were given. Comparisons between the methods were made at near-, mid- and far-field locations. However, at that time, experimental data from wind-tunnel tests were not available. The current paper presents a comparison of computational results with the now available experimental data. Further comparisons between the computational methods and analyses of the discrepancies in the results are presented.

  2. Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnaud Delorme

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 seconds. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail. Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance and warrants further investigation.

  3. Validation of the mortality prediction equation for damage control ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    , preoperative lowest pH and lowest core body temperature to derive an equation for the purpose of predicting mortality in damage control surgery. It was shown to reliably predict death despite damage control surgery. The equation derivation ...

  4. Boey Score in Predicting Mortality in Patients with Perforated Peptic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: A number of prognostic factors for morbidity and mortality following perforated peptic ulcer have been reported, but the most well known is Boey's score which is simple with a high predictive value. Aim: The aim of this study was to predict mortality in patients with perforated peptic ulcer using the Boey's score.

  5. Prediction of Maximum Oxygen Uptake Using Both Exercise and Non-Exercise Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, James D.; Paul, Samantha L.; Hyde, Annette; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

    2009-01-01

    This study sought to develop a regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO[subscript 2max]) based on submaximal treadmill exercise (EX) and non-exercise (N-EX) data involving 116 participants, ages 18-65 years. The EX data included the participants' self-selected treadmill speed (at a level grade) when exercise heart rate first reached…

  6. Factors affecting swimming performance of fasted rainbow trout with implications of exhaustive exercise on overwinter mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simpkins, D.G.; Hubert, W.A.; Del Rio, C.M.; Rule, D.C.

    2004-01-01

    We evaluated the effects of body size, water temperature, and sustained swimming activity on swimming performance and the effects of exhaustive exercise on mortality of fasted juvenile rainbow trout. Fasting caused swimming performance to decline more rapidly for small fish than large fish, and warmer water temperatures and sustained swimming activity further decreased swimming performance. Exhaustive exercise increased mortality among fasted fish. Our observations suggest that juvenile rainbow trout with little or no food intake during winter can swim for long periods of time with little effect on mortality, but swimming to exhaustion can enhance mortality, especially among the smallest juveniles.

  7. Changes in cognition and mortality in relation to exercise in late life: a population based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura E Middleton

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: On average, cognition declines with age but this average hides considerable variability, including the chance of improvement. Here, we investigate how exercise is associated with cognitive change and mortality in older people and, particularly, whether exercise might paradoxically increase the risk of dementia by allowing people to live longer. METHODS AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: In the Canadian Study of Health and Aging (CSHA, of 8403 people who had baseline cognition measured and exercise reported at CSHA-1, 2219 had died and 5376 were re-examined at CSHA-2. We used a parametric Markov chain model to estimate the probabilities of cognitive improvement, decline, and death, adjusted for age and education, from any cognitive state as measured by the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination. High exercisers (at least three times per week, at least as intense as walking, n = 3264 had more frequent stable or improved cognition (42.3%, 95% confidence interval: 40.6-44.0 over 5 years than did low/no exercisers (all other exercisers and non exercisers, n = 4331 (27.8% (95% CI 26.4-29.2. The difference widened as baseline cognition worsened. The proportion whose cognition declined was higher amongst the high exercisers but was more similar between exercise groups (39.4% (95% CI 37.7-41.1 for high exercisers versus 34.8% (95% CI 33.4-36.2 otherwise. People who did not exercise were also more likely to die (37.5% (95% CI 36.0-39.0 versus 18.3% (95% CI 16.9-19.7. Even so, exercise conferred its greatest mortality benefit to people with the highest baseline cognition. CONCLUSIONS: Exercise is strongly associated with improving cognition. As the majority of mortality benefit of exercise is at the highest level of cognition, and declines as cognition declines, the net effect of exercise should be to improve cognition at the population level, even with more people living longer.

  8. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Regression analysis indicated a significant positive relationship between length of stay in ICU, length of mechanical ventilation and high mortality risk in patients referred from emergency service (P < 0.05). Accuracy rates of predicting mortality were 81%, 79%, and 81% for APACHE II, APACHE IV, and SAPS III, respectively.

  9. Copeptin Predicts Mortality in Critically Ill Patients

    OpenAIRE

    Krychtiuk, Konstantin A.; Honeder, Maria C.; Lenz, Max; Maurer, Gerald; Wojta, Johann; Heinz, Gottfried; Huber, Kurt; Speidl, Walter S.

    2017-01-01

    Background Critically ill patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit exhibit a high mortality rate irrespective of the cause of admission. Besides its role in fluid and electrolyte balance, vasopressin has been described as a stress hormone. Copeptin, the C-terminal portion of provasopressin mirrors vasopressin levels and has been described as a reliable biomarker for the individual?s stress level and was associated with outcome in various disease entities. The aim of this study was t...

  10. Fitness, Fatness, and Mortality: The FIT (Henry Ford Exercise Testing) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuley, Paul A; Blaha, Michael J; Keteyian, Steven J; Brawner, Clinton A; Al Rifai, Mahmoud; Dardari, Zeina A; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

    2016-09-01

    The combined influence of fitness and fatness on mortality risk in diverse populations has not been adequately explored. Our aim was to assess the relative impact of exercise capacity and body mass index (BMI) on all-cause mortality. We included 29,257 men and women (mean age 53 years; 27% African American) from The Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project without cardiovascular disease and diabetes mellitus at baseline. All patients completed a symptom-limited maximal treadmill stress test between 1991 and 2009. Patients were grouped for analysis by exercise capacity (≥10 metabolic equivalents of task [METs] and mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. During a mean follow-up of 10.8 years, 1898 patients (6.5%) died. We observed a strong inverse association between exercise capacity (per 1 MET unit) and all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.86 [0.85-0.88]). Body mass index (per 1 BMI unit) was inversely related to mortality (hazard ratio [95% confidence interval], 0.98 [0.97-0.99]). In joint analysis, the highest mortality risk was in the mortality in this racially diverse population. Given the comparatively limited impact of BMI, more emphasis should be placed on measuring exercise capacity and developing strategies for its improvement in cardiovascular disease prevention programs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

    2016-01-01

    Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.

  12. Exercise mediates the association between positive affect and 5-year mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoogwegt, Madelein T; Versteeg, Henneke; Hansen, Tina B

    2013-01-01

    Background- Positive affect has been associated with better prognosis in patients with ischemic heart disease, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We examined whether positive affect predicted time to first cardiac-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality, and whether exercise me...... between positive affect and mortality. Interventions aimed at increasing both positive affect and exercise may have better results with respect to patients' prognosis and psychological well-being than interventions focusing on 1 of these factors alone.......Background- Positive affect has been associated with better prognosis in patients with ischemic heart disease, but the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. We examined whether positive affect predicted time to first cardiac-related hospitalization and all-cause mortality, and whether exercise...... mediated this relationship in patients with established ischemic heart disease. Methods and Results- The sample comprised 607 patients with ischemic heart disease from Holbæk Hospital, Denmark. In 2005, patients completed the Global Mood Scale (GMS) to assess positive affect and a purpose-designed question...

  13. Exercise identity and attribution properties predict negative self-conscious emotions for exercise relapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flora, Parminder K; Strachan, Shaelyn M; Brawley, Lawrence R; Spink, Kevin S

    2012-10-01

    Research on exercise identity (EXID) indicates that it is related to negative affect when exercisers are inconsistent or relapse. Although identity theory suggests that causal attributions about this inconsistency elicit negative self-conscious emotions of shame and guilt, no EXID studies have examined this for exercise relapse. Weiner's attribution-based theory of interpersonal motivation (2010) offers a means of testing the attribution-emotion link. Using both frameworks, we examined whether EXID and attributional properties predicted negative emotions for exercise relapse. Participants (n = 224) read an exercise relapse vignette, and then completed EXID, attributions, and emotion measures. Hierarchical multiple regression models using EXID and the attributional property of controllability significantly predicted each of shame and guilt, R² adjusted = .09, ps ≤ .001. Results support identity theory suggestions and Weiner's specific attribution-emotion hypothesis. This first demonstration of an interlinking of EXID, controllability, and negative self-conscious emotions offers more predictive utility using complementary theories than either theory alone.

  14. Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelly Ziadé

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

  15. Predictive model of mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poca, M; Alvarado-Tapias, E; Concepción, M; Pérez-Cameo, C; Cañete, N; Gich, I; Romero, C; Casas, M; Román, E; Castells, L; Vargas, V; Carrión, J A; Guarner, C; Soriano, G

    2016-09-01

    Hospital mortality in patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is high despite albumin treatment, particularly in those with worse liver and/or renal function. To determine the independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and to create and validate a predictive model of mortality in patients with SBP. We analysed all cirrhotic patients with high-risk SBP (serum urea ≥11 mmol/L and/or serum bilirubin ≥68 μmol/L) between 2001 and 2011. We developed a predictive model of in-hospital mortality and validated this in a different cohort. We included 118 high-risk SBP episodes treated with antibiotics and albumin. In-hospital mortality was 33/118 (28%). The independent predictive factors of in-hospital mortality at SBP diagnosis were serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure. A predictive model including these four variables showed a discrimination accuracy (AUC) of 0.850, 95% CI 0.777-0.922. A cut-off point of 0.245 showed a sensitivity of 0.85 and specificity of 0.75. The in-hospital mortality was 28/49 (57.1%) in patients with a model value ≥0.245, and 5/69 (7.2%) in patients with a model value model value ≥0.245, and 10/84 (11.9%) in those with a model value predictive model of mortality that includes serum urea, blood leucocyte count, Child-Pugh score and mean arterial pressure in high-risk patients with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. These findings may help to identify patients who would benefit from additional therapeutic strategies. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Poor Semen Quality Predicts Increased Mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Tina Kold; Bostofte, Erik; Jacobsen, Rune

    Objective: Over recent decades a possible decrease in semen quality and an increase in the incidence of testicular cancer have been reported. In addition, men with poor semen quality have been reported to be at increased risk of developing testicular cancer whereas the risk of other cancers...... is not increased. The long-term survival of men with poor semen quality is, however, unknown. We therefore studied the associations between semen characteristics and subsequent mortality. Back to Top Material and Methods: The Copenhagen Sperm Analysis Laboratory is one of several public semen analysis laboratories...... in Denmark and examines semen samples mostly from men in the area of Copenhagen. Men are referred to the clinic by general practitioners and urologists, and the investigations are paid for through the public health system. A total of 34.442 men had a semen analysis done at the laboratory during 1963 to 1995...

  17. Interstitial lung disease increases mortality in systemic sclerosis patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension without affecting hemodynamics and exercise capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelfelder, M; Becker, M; Riedlinger, A; Siegert, E; Drömann, D; Yu, X; Petersen, F; Riemekasten, G

    2017-02-01

    Published data suggest that coexisting interstitial lung disease (ILD) has an impact on mortality in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) and pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH), but there is scarce knowledge if this is reflected by hemodynamics, exercise capacity, autoantibody profile, or pulmonary function. In this partially retrospective study, 27 SSc-PAH patients were compared to 24 SSc-PAH patients with coexisting ILD respecting to survival, pulmonary function, hemodynamics, exercise capacity, and laboratory parameters. Survival was significantly worse in SSc-PAH-ILD patients than in SSc patients with isolated PAH (1, 5, and 10-year survival rates 86, 54, and 54% versus 96, 92, and 82%, p = 0.013). Compared to isolated SSc-PAH patients, patients with SSc-PAH-ILD revealed lower forced expiratory volume after 1 s (FEV1) values at the time of PAH diagnosis as well as 1 and 2 years later (p = 0.002) without significant decrease in the PAH course in both groups. At PAH diagnosis, diffusion capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) values were lower in the ILD-PAH group. Coexisting ILD was not associated with lower exercise capacity, different FEV1/forced vital capacity (FVC) ratio, higher WHO functional class, or reduced hemodynamics. Higher levels of antibodies against angiotensin and endothelin receptors predict mortality in all SSc-PAH patients but could not differentiate between PAH patients with and without ILD. Our study confirmed an impact of ILD on mortality in SSc-PAH patients. Pulmonary function parameters can be used to distinguish PAH from PAH-ILD. The higher mortality rate cannot be explained by differences in hemodynamics, exercise capacity, or autoantibody levels. Mechanisms of mortality remain to be studied.

  18. Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-12-07

    Dec 7, 2015 ... Context: Various scoring systems have been developed to predict mortality and morbidity in Intensive Care Unit (ICU), but different data has been reported so far. Aims: This retrospective clinical study aims to evaluate predictability of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation. II (APACHE II) ...

  19. Adolescent-onset substance use disorders predict young adult mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Duncan B.; Martin, Christopher S.; Cornelius, Jack R.

    2009-01-01

    This study determined whether adolescent-onset substance use disorders (SUDs) prospectively predicted early mortality. Among 870 adolescents, 21 young adulthood deaths were observed. Adolescent SUDs, as well as gender, ethnic group, hazardous substance use, and drug trafficking, predicted these deaths. Among African American males with SUDs, 23% died by age 25. PMID:18486875

  20. Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

    2017-09-01

    Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

  1. Comprehensive use of cardiopulmonary exercise testing identifies adults with congenital heart disease at increased mortality risk in the medium term.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inuzuka, Ryo; Diller, Gerhard-Paul; Borgia, Francesco; Benson, Leah; Tay, Edgar L W; Alonso-Gonzalez, Rafael; Silva, Margarida; Charalambides, Menelaos; Swan, Lorna; Dimopoulos, Konstantinos; Gatzoulis, Michael A

    2012-01-17

    Parameters of cardiopulmonary exercise testing were recently identified as strong predictors of mortality in adults with congenital heart disease. We hypothesized that combinations of cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters may provide optimal prognostic information on midterm survival in this population. A total of 1375 consecutive adult patients with congenital heart disease (age, 33±13 years) underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing at a single center over a period of 10 years. Peak oxygen consumption (peak V(O(2))), ventilation per unit of carbon dioxide production (V(E)/V(O(2)) slope), and heart rate reserve were measured. During a median follow-up of 5.8 years, 117 patients died. Peak V(O(2)), heart rate reserve, and V(E)/V(O(2)) slope were related to midterm survival in adult patients with congenital heart disease. Risk of death increased with lower peak V(O(2)) and heart rate reserve. A higher V(E)/V(O(2)) slope was also related to increased risk of death in noncyanotic patients, whereas the V(E)/V(O(2)) slope was not predictive of mortality in cyanotic patients. The combination of peak V(O(2)) and heart rate reserve provided the greatest predictive information after adjustment for clinical parameters such as negative chronotropic agents, age, and presence of cyanosis. However, the incremental value of these exercise parameters was reduced in patients with peak respiratory exchange ratio testing provides strong prognostic information in adult patients with congenital heart disease. Prognostication should be approached differently, depending on the presence of cyanosis, use of rate-lowering medications, and achieved level of exercise. We provide 5-year survival prospects based on cardiopulmonary exercise testing parameters in this growing population. © 2011 American Heart Association, Inc.

  2. Prediction of Mortality Based on Facial Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delorme, Arnaud; Pierce, Alan; Michel, Leena; Radin, Dean

    2016-01-01

    Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 s. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p clairvoyance warrants further investigation. PMID:27242466

  3. Cancer mortality predictions for 2017 in Latin America.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carioli, G; La Vecchia, C; Bertuccio, P; Rodriguez, T; Levi, F; Boffetta, P; Negri, E; Malvezzi, M

    2017-09-01

    From most recent available data, we predicted cancer mortality statistics in selected Latin American countries for the year 2017, with focus on lung cancer. We obtained death certification data from the World Health Organization and population data from the Pan American Health Organization database for all neoplasms and selected cancer sites. We derived figures for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Cuba, Mexico and Venezuela. Using a logarithmic Poisson count data joinpoint model, we estimated number of deaths and age-standardized (world population) mortality rates in 2017. Total cancer mortality rates are predicted to decline in all countries. The highest mortality rates for 2017 are in Cuba, i.e. 132.3/100 000 men and 93.3/100 000 women. Mexico had the lowest predicted rates, 64.7/100 000 men and 60.6/100 000 women. In contrast, the total number of cancer deaths is expected to rise due to population ageing and growth. Men showed declines in lung cancer trends in all countries and age groups considered, while only Colombian and Mexican women had downward trends. Stomach and (cervix) uteri rates are predicted to continue their declines, though mortality from these neoplasms remains comparatively high. Colorectal, breast and prostate cancer rates were predicted to decline moderately, as well as leukaemias. There was no clear pattern for pancreatic cancer. Between 1990 and 2017 about 420 000 cancer deaths were avoided in 5 of the 7 countries, no progress was observed in Brazil and Cuba. Cancer mortality rates for 2017 in seven selected Latin American countries are predicted to decline, though there was appreciable variability across countries. Mortality from major cancers-including lung and prostate-and all cancers remains comparatively high in Cuba, indicating the need for improved prevention and management.

  4. Measurement of exercise habits and prediction of leisure-time activity in established exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tappe, Karyn A; Glanz, Karen

    2013-01-01

    Habit formation may be important to maintaining repetitive healthy behaviors like exercise. Existing habit questionnaires only measure part of the definition of habit (automaticity; frequency). A novel habit questionnaire was evaluated that measured contextual cueing. We designed a two-stage observational cohort study of regular exercisers. For stage 1, we conducted an in-person interview on a university campus. For stage 2, we conducted an internet-based survey. Participants were 156 adults exercising at least once per week. A novel measure, The Exercise Habit Survey (EHS) assessed contextual cueing through 13 questions on constancy of place, time, people, and exercise behaviors. A subset of the Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI), measuring automaticity, was also collected along with measures of intention and self-efficacy, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), leisure-time section. The EHS was evaluated using factor analysis and test-retest reliability. Its correlation to other exercise predictors and exercise behavior was evaluated using Pearson's r and hierarchical regression. Results suggested that the EHS comprised four subscales (People, Place, Time, Exercise Constancy). Only Exercise Constancy correlated significantly with SRHI. Only the People subscale predicted IPAQ exercise metabolic equivalents. The SRHI was a strong predictor. Contextual cueing is an important aspect of habit but measurement methodologies warrant refinement and comparison by different methods.

  5. Disgust sensitivity predicts defensive responding to mortality salience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelley, Nicholas J; Crowell, Adrienne L; Tang, David; Harmon-Jones, Eddie; Schmeichel, Brandon J

    2015-10-01

    Disgust protects the physical self. The present authors suggest that disgust also contributes to the protection of the psychological self by fostering stronger defensive reactions to existential concerns. To test this idea, 3 studies examined the link between disgust sensitivity and defensive responses to mortality salience or "terror management" processes (Greenberg, Solomon, & Pyszczynski, 1997). Each study included an individual difference measure of disgust sensitivity, a manipulation of mortality salience, and a dependent measure of defensive responding. In Study 1, disgust sensitivity predicted increases in worldview defense in the mortality salience condition but not in the control condition. In Study 2, disgust sensitivity predicted increases in optimistic perceptions of the future in the mortality salience condition but not in the control condition. In Study 3, disgust sensitivity predicted reductions in delay discounting for those in the mortality salience condition such that those higher in disgust sensitivity discounted the future less. This pattern did not occur in the control condition. These findings highlight disgust sensitivity as a key to understanding reactions to mortality salience, and they support the view that disgust-related responses protect against both physical (e.g., noxious substances) and psychological threats. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  6. Predicting mortality in patients with diabetes starting dialysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merel van Diepen

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: While some prediction models have been developed for diabetic populations, prediction rules for mortality in diabetic dialysis patients are still lacking. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify predictors for 1-year mortality in diabetic dialysis patients and use these results to develop a prediction model. METHODS: Data were used from the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD, a multicenter, prospective cohort study in which incident patients with end stage renal disease (ESRD were monitored until transplantation or death. For the present analysis, patients with DM at baseline were included. A prediction algorithm for 1-year all-cause mortality was developed through multivariate logistic regression. Candidate predictors were selected based on literature and clinical expertise. The final model was constructed through backward selection. The model's predictive performance, measured by calibration and discrimination, was assessed and internally validated through bootstrapping. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients were available for statistical analysis; 82 (21% patients died within one year after baseline (3 months after starting dialysis therapy. The final prediction model contained seven predictors; age, smoking, history of macrovascular complications, duration of diabetes mellitus, Karnofsky scale, serum albumin and hemoglobin level. Predictive performance was good, as shown by the c-statistic of 0.810. Internal validation showed a slightly lower, but still adequate performance. Sensitivity analyses showed stability of results. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model containing seven predictors has been identified in order to predict 1-year mortality for diabetic incident dialysis patients. Predictive performance of the model was good. Before implementing the model in clinical practice, for example for counseling patients regarding their prognosis, external validation is necessary.

  7. Mortality rate and longevity of food-restricted exercising male rats: a reevaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloszy, J O

    1997-02-01

    Food restriction increases the maximal longevity of rats. Male rats do not increase their food intake to compensate for the increase in energy expenditure in response to exercise. However, a decrease in the availability of energy for growth and cell proliferation that induces an increase in maximal longevity in sedentary rats only results in an improvement in average survival, with no extension of maximal life span, when caused by exercise. In a previous study (J.O. Holloszy and K.B. Schechtman. J. Appl. Physiol. 70:1529-1535, 1991), to test the possibility that exercise prevents the extension of life span by food restriction, wheel running and food restriction were combined. The food-restricted runners showed the same increase in maximal life span as food-restricted sedentary rats but had an increased mortality rate during the first one-half of their mortality curve. The purpose of the present study was to determine the pathological cause of this increased early mortality. However, in contrast to our previous results, the food-restricted wheel-running rats in this study showed no increase in early mortality, and their survival curves were virtually identical to those of sedentary animals that were food restricted so as to keep their body weights the same as those of the runners. Thus it is possible that the rats in the previous study had a health problem that had no effect on longevity except when both food restriction and exercise were superimposed on it. Possibly of interest in this regard, the rats in this study did considerably more voluntary running than those in the previous study. It is concluded that 1) moderate caloric restriction combined with exercise does not normally increase the early mortality rate in male rats, 2) exercise does not interfere with the extension of maximal life span by food restriction, and 3) the beneficial effects of food restriction and exercise on survival are not additive or synergistic.

  8. Association between premature ventricular complexes during exercise, long-term occurrence of life-threatening arrhythmia and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aviles-Rosales, Jorge; Ilarraza-Lomeli, Hermes; Garcia-Saldivia, Marianna; Rojano-Castillo, Jessica; Rius-Suarez, Maria-Dolores; Nunez-Urquiza, Juan-Pablo; Iturralde, Pedro

    2017-08-14

    Exercise-induced premature ventricular complexes (EiPVCs) are often considered as benign arrhythmias, although they are associated with a high risk of all-cause death in the general healthy population. However, an intermediate pathophysiological process remains unclear, particularly in patients with known cardiovascular disease. The aim of this study was to find an association between EiPVCs, the occurrence of life-threatening ventricular arrhythmias (LACO), and all-cause mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease. This was an observational study of a cohort of patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) or idiopathic cardiomyopathy (ICM). Stress testing was performed as a part of the routine cardiovascular evaluation. The occurrence of EiPVCs was evaluated during exercise testing (ET). At follow-up, long-term occurrence of LACO was evaluated. A bivariate and multivariate analysis was performed. Out of the total of 1442 patients analysed, 700 (49%) had EiPVCs. During 14 years of following-up after ET, 106 LACO outcomes were observed. Long-term all-cause mortality was 4% (n=61). A bivariate analysis showed that patients with EiPVCs had an increased risk for LACO (RR=2.81, 95% CI; 1.9-4.3, P<.001), and for mortality (RR=2.1, CI 95% 1.2-3.4, P<.01). Occurrence of LACO was also associated with a higher mortality risk (RR=5.7, 95% CI; 3.4-9.4, P<.001). After a post hoc analysis, LACO remained as a highly predictive variable for mortality. Patients with EiPVCs have a high risk of LACO and all-cause mortality. The presence of LACO could be an intermediate stage between EiPVCs and mortality in subjects with cardiovascular disease. Copyright © 2017 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Publicado por Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  9. Exercise left ventricular ejection fraction predicts events in right bundle branch block.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peteiro, Jesús; Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Broullón, Javier; Yañez, Juan; Martinez, Dolores; Vazquez, Jose Manuel

    2016-01-01

    Interpretation of the electrocardiogram (ECG) during exercise is not easy in patients with right bundle branch block (RBBB). Also, the value of exercise echocardiography (ExE) for predicting outcome in them has not been addressed. We sought to assess its prognostic value in patients with RBBB and known/suspected coronary disease. Retrospective analysis of data on 703 patients with RBBB who were submitted to a clinically-indicated ExE. The end points were overall mortality and combined myocardial infarction and cardiovascular mortality. During follow-up (4.1 ± 4.5 years) there were 130 deaths and 108 combined events. Independent predictors of combined events were history of coronary artery disease (hazard ratio [HR] = 2.37, 95% Confidence Interval [CI] = 1.24-4.52, p = 0.009) resting wall motion score index (HR = 2.14, 95% CI = 1.12-4.10, p = 0.02), metabolic equivalents (HR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.93-0.97, p = 0.007), Δ in double product with exercise (HR = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.92-1.00, p = 0.036) and Δ in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) with exercise (HR = 0.97, 95% CI = 0.94-0.99, p = 0.01). Neither positive clinical nor ECG exercise testing was predictive. Combined event rates were 3.3% in patients with ΔLVEF > 5%, 4.7% in those with ΔLVEF between 1-5% and 8.2% in those with no increase (Δ < 1%). A decrease in LVEF during exercise is predictive of serious events in patients with RBBB.

  10. A Novel Exercise Thermophysiology Comfort Prediction Model with Fuzzy Logic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nan Jia

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Participation in a regular exercise program can improve health status and contribute to an increase in life expectancy. However, exercise accidents like dehydration, exertional heatstroke, syncope, and even sudden death exist. If these accidents can be analyzed or predicted before they happen, it will be beneficial to alleviate or avoid uncomfortable or unacceptable human disease. Therefore, an exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction model is needed. In this paper, coupling the thermal interactions among human body, clothing, and environment (HCE as well as the human body physiological properties, a human thermophysiology regulatory model is designed to enhance the human thermophysiology simulation in the HCE system. Some important thermal and physiological performances can be simulated. According to the simulation results, a human exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction method based on fuzzy inference system is proposed. The experiment results show that there is the same prediction trend between the experiment result and simulation result about thermophysiology comfort. At last, a mobile application platform for human exercise comfort prediction is designed and implemented.

  11. Relation of resting heart rate to risk for all-cause mortality by gender after considering exercise capacity (the Henry Ford exercise testing project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aladin, Amer I; Whelton, Seamus P; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Blaha, Michael J; Keteyian, Steven J; Juraschek, Stephen P; Rubin, Jonathan; Brawner, Clinton A; Michos, Erin D

    2014-12-01

    Whether resting heart rate (RHR) predicts mortality independent of fitness is not well established, particularly among women. We analyzed data from 56,634 subjects (49% women) without known coronary artery disease or atrial fibrillation who underwent a clinically indicated exercise stress test. Baseline RHR was divided into 5 groups with mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, or revascularization after sequential adjustment for demographics, cardiovascular disease risk factors, medications, and fitness (metabolic equivalents). The mean age was 53 ± 12 years and mean RHR was 73 ± 12 beats/min. More than half of the participants were referred for chest pain; 81% completed an adequate stress test and mean metabolic equivalents achieved was 9.2 ± 3. There were 6,255 deaths over 11.0-year mean follow-up. There was an increased risk of all-cause mortality with increasing RHR (p trend mortality even after adjustment for fitness (hazard ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.10 to 1.35). This relationship remained significant for men, but not significant for women after adjustment for fitness (p interaction mortality in men but not women, suggesting gender differences in the utility of RHR for risk stratification. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Bone Marrow Pathology Predicts Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cheng-Hao Weng

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. A bone marrow biopsy is a useful procedure for the diagnosis and staging of various hematologic and systemic diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the findings of bone marrow studies can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. Methods. Seventy-eight end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis underwent bone marrow biopsies between 2000 and 2011, with the most common indication being unexplained anemia followed by unexplained leukocytosis and leukopenia. Results. The survivors had a higher incidence of abnormal megakaryocyte distribution P=0.001, band and segmented cells P=0.021, and lymphoid cells P=0.029 than the nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 38.5% (30/78, and the most common cause of mortality was sepsis (83.3% followed by respiratory failure (10%. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both decreased (OR 3.714, 95% CI 1.671–8.253, P=0.001 and absent (OR 9.751, 95% CI 2.030–45.115, P=0.004 megakaryocyte distribution (normal megakaryocyte distribution as the reference group, as well as myeloid/erythroid ratio (OR 1.054, CI 1.012–1.098, P=0.011, were predictive of mortality. Conclusion. The results of a bone marrow biopsy can be used to assess the pathology, and, in addition, myeloid/erythroid ratio and abnormal megakaryocyte distribution can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

  13. Using built environment characteristics to predict walking for exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siscovick David S

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Environments conducive to walking may help people avoid sedentary lifestyles and associated diseases. Recent studies developed walkability models combining several built environment characteristics to optimally predict walking. Developing and testing such models with the same data could lead to overestimating one's ability to predict walking in an independent sample of the population. More accurate estimates of model fit can be obtained by splitting a single study population into training and validation sets (holdout approach or through developing and evaluating models in different populations. We used these two approaches to test whether built environment characteristics near the home predict walking for exercise. Study participants lived in western Washington State and were adult members of a health maintenance organization. The physical activity data used in this study were collected by telephone interview and were selected for their relevance to cardiovascular disease. In order to limit confounding by prior health conditions, the sample was restricted to participants in good self-reported health and without a documented history of cardiovascular disease. Results For 1,608 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, the mean age was 64 years, 90 percent were white, 37 percent had a college degree, and 62 percent of participants reported that they walked for exercise. Single built environment characteristics, such as residential density or connectivity, did not significantly predict walking for exercise. Regression models using multiple built environment characteristics to predict walking were not successful at predicting walking for exercise in an independent population sample. In the validation set, none of the logistic models had a C-statistic confidence interval excluding the null value of 0.5, and none of the linear models explained more than one percent of the variance in time spent walking for exercise. We did not

  14. APACHE IV versus PPI for predicting community hospital ICU mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shrope-Mok, Shaffer R; Propst, Katie A; Iyengar, Rajesh

    2010-06-01

    Both the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV and Palliative Performance Index (PPI) are scales used to estimate intensive care unit (ICU) prognosis and mortality. To Compare the diagnostic utility of the PPI and APACHE IV and their subsequent implications in predicting ICU mortality at a community hospital. This was a Prospective Cohort Study. The study was conducted at the Community hospital ICU. Participants were 211 patients admitted from December 24, 2008 to June 11, 2009. An observer gathered appropriate data and performed the APACHE IV and PPI scales within 24 hours of admission. Results were then analyzed using standard formulae. The study included 211 participants in total with 211 participants in the PPI group (n = 211) and 162 in the APACHE IV group (n = 162). The APACHE score and PPI were found to be significant for predicting ICU mortality (P value of P APACHE IV demonstrated a sensitivity of 84.6%, specificity of 96.0%, PPV of 64.7%, and NPV of 98.6%. In contrast, the PPI possessed a sensitivity of 69.2%, specificity of 96.0%, PPV of 64.7%, and NPV of 97.8%. Limitations may have occurred with the subjective nature of the PPI and Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), along with meeting criterion for the APACHE IV. This prospective cohort study in the ICU of a community hospital demonstrated that both the APACHE IV and PPI were significant tools for predicting ICU mortality. When contrasting the 2 scales, the APACHE IV could more accurately rule in mortality when mortality occurred and rule out mortality when survival occurred.

  15. Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

    2010-01-01

    Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

  16. Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a Moroccan medical intensive care unit. Jihane Belayachi, Mina El khayari, Tarek Dendane, Naoufel Madani, Khalid Abidi, Redouane Abouqal, Amine Ali Zeggwagh. Medical Intensive Care Unit, Ibn Sina University Hospital, Rabat, Morocco. Jihane Belayachi, MD.

  17. Prediction of 9-year cardiovascular outcomes by myocardial perfusion imaging in patients with normal exercise electrocardiographic testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schinkel, Arend F L; Boiten, Henk J; van der Sijde, Jors N; Ruitinga, Pauline R; Sijbrands, Eric J G; Valkema, Roelf; van Domburg, Ron T

    2012-11-01

    Exercise myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is widely used, but the long-term prognostic value of this test in patients with normal exercise electrocardiographic testing is not defined. A consecutive group of 650 patients (428 men, mean age: 56 ± 11 years) with known or suspected coronary artery disease underwent exercise electrocardiographic testing and MPI. Follow-up endpoints were mortality and major adverse cardiac events (MACE). Predictors of outcome were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis using clinical, exercise electrocardiographic testing and single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) variables. A total of 324 (50%) patients had an abnormal SPECT, and 131 (20%) had completely or partially reversible perfusion defects. During a mean follow-up of 9.2 ± 2.0 years, 107 (23%) patients died, 69 (11%) had a non-fatal myocardial infarction, 90 (14%) underwent coronary artery bypass surgery, and 142 (22%) percutaneous coronary intervention. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that the summed rest score was an independent predictor of mortality [hazard ratio (HR): 1.15, 95% confidence interval (CI): (1.08-1.22], P exercise electrocardiographic testing data provided incremental prognostic information for the prediction of mortality and MACE (both P exercise electrocardiographic testing have completely or partially reversible myocardial perfusion defects. MPI provides additional information for the prediction of 9-year cardiovascular outcomes in these patients.

  18. A stochastic model for predicting the mortality of breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sandra; Zelen, Marvin

    2006-01-01

    Consider a cohort of women, identified by year of birth, some of whom will eventually be diagnosed with breast cancer. A stochastic model is developed for predicting the U.S. breast cancer mortality that depends on advances in therapy and dissemination of mammographic screening. The predicted mortality can be compared with the same cohort having usual care with no screening program and absence of modern therapy, or a cohort in which only a proportion participate in a screening program and have modern therapy. The model envisions that a woman may be in four health states: i.e., 1) no disease or breast cancer that cannot be diagnosed (S0), 2) preclinical state (Sp), 3) clinical state (Sc), and 4) disease-specific death (Sd). The preclinical disease refers to breast cancer that is asymptomatic but that may be diagnosed with a special exam. The clinical state refers to symptomatic disease diagnosed under usual care. One of the basic assumptions of the model is that the disease is progressive; i.e., the transitions for the first three states are S0-->Sp-->Sc. The other basic assumption is that any reduction in mortality associated with earlier diagnosis is due to a stage shift in diagnosis; i.e., early diagnosis results in a larger proportion of earlier stage patients. The model is used to predict changes in female breast cancer mortality in the U.S. women for 1975-2000. The model is general and may predict mortality for other chronic diseases that satisfy the two basic assumptions.

  19. Exercise autonomous motivation predicts 3-yr weight loss in women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Marlene N; Markland, David; Carraça, Eliana V; Vieira, Paulo N; Coutinho, Sílvia R; Minderico, Cláudia S; Matos, Margarida G; Sardinha, Luís B; Teixeira, Pedro J

    2011-04-01

    This study evaluated exercise-related predictors of successful long-term weight control in women by analyzing the extent to which sustained exercise participation and self-determination theory (SDT)-based exercise motivation variables mediated the impact of a behavioral weight control intervention on 3-yr weight change. Longitudinal randomized controlled trial consisting of a 1-yr SDT-based intervention and a 2-yr follow-up with 221 female participants (means ± SD: age = 37.6 ± 7 yr, body mass index = 31.6 ± 4.1 kg·m(-2)). The tested model incorporated experimentally manipulated perceived need support, motivational regulations, and 2-yr exercise adherence as mediators of the intervention's impact on 3-yr weight change. Paths were tested using partial least squares analysis. Where there were significant intervening paths, tests of mediation were conducted. Treatment had significant effects on 1- and 2-yr autonomous regulations, 2-yr physical activity, and 3-yr weight change, fully mediated by the tested paths (effect ratio = 0.10-0.61). Moderate and vigorous exercise at 2 yr had a significant effect (P autonomous regulation effects on follow-up weight change were only partially mediated by physical activity (effect ratio = 0.42). This application of SDT to physical activity and weight management showed that not all types of motivation predict long-term behavioral outcomes and that sustained moderate and vigorous exercise mediated long-term weight change. It provides strong evidence for a link between experimentally increased autonomous motivation and exercise and long-term weight loss maintenance. Results highlight the importance of interventions targeting the internalization of exercise behavioral regulation and making exercise and physical activity positive and meaningful experiences rather than simply focusing on immediate behavior change in overweight/obese women.

  20. Hyperkyphosis predicts mortality independent of vertebral osteoporosis in older women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kado, Deborah M; Lui, Li-Yung; Ensrud, Kristine E; Fink, Howard A; Karlamangla, Arun S; Cummings, Steven R

    2009-05-19

    Excessive kyphosis may be associated with earlier mortality, but previous studies have not controlled for clinically silent vertebral fractures, which are a known mortality risk factor. To determine whether hyperkyphosis predicts increased mortality independent of vertebral fractures. Prospective cohort study. Four clinical centers in Baltimore County, Maryland; Portland, Oregon; Minneapolis, Minnesota; and the Monongahela Valley, Pennsylvania. 610 women, age 67 to 93 years, from a cohort of 9704 women recruited from community-based listings between 1986 and 1988. Kyphosis was measured by using a flexicurve. Prevalent radiographic vertebral fractures at baseline were defined by morphometry, and mortality was assessed during an average follow-up of 13.5 years. In age-adjusted models, each SD increase in kyphosis carried a 1.14-fold increased risk for death (95% CI, 1.02 to 1.27; P = 0.023). After adjustment for age and other predictors of mortality, including such osteoporosis-related factors as low bone density, moderate and severe prevalent vertebral fractures, and number of prevalent vertebral fractures, women with greater kyphosis were at increased risk for earlier death (relative hazard per SD increase, 1.15 [CI, 1.01 to 1.30]; P = 0.029). On stratification by prevalent vertebral fracture status, only women with prevalent fractures were at increased mortality risk from hyperkyphosis, independent of age, self-reported health, smoking, spine bone mineral density, number of vertebral fractures, and severe vertebral fractures (relative hazard per SD increase, 1.58 [CI, 1.06 to 2.35]; P = 0.024). The study population included only white women. In older women with vertebral fractures, hyperkyphosis predicts an increased risk for death, independent of underlying spinal osteoporosis and the extent and severity of vertebral fractures. National Institute of Arthritis and Musculoskeletal and Skin Diseases and National Institute on Aging.

  1. Olfactory dysfunction predicts 5-year mortality in older adults.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayant M Pinto

    Full Text Available Prediction of mortality has focused on disease and frailty, although antecedent biomarkers may herald broad physiological decline. Olfaction, an ancestral chemical system, is a strong candidate biomarker because it is linked to diverse physiological processes. We sought to determine if olfactory dysfunction is a harbinger of 5-year mortality in the National Social Life, Health and Aging Project [NSHAP], a nationally representative sample of older U.S. adults. 3,005 community-dwelling adults aged 57-85 were studied in 2005-6 (Wave 1 and their mortality determined in 2010-11 (Wave 2. Olfactory dysfunction, determined objectively at Wave 1, was used to estimate the odds of 5-year, all cause mortality via logistic regression, controlling for demographics and health factors. Mortality for anosmic older adults was four times that of normosmic individuals while hyposmic individuals had intermediate mortality (p<0.001, a "dose-dependent" effect present across the age range. In a comprehensive model that included potential confounding factors, anosmic older adults had over three times the odds of death compared to normosmic individuals (OR, 3.37 [95%CI 2.04, 5.57], higher than and independent of known leading causes of death, and did not result from the following mechanisms: nutrition, cognitive function, mental health, smoking and alcohol abuse or frailty. Olfactory function is thus one of the strongest predictors of 5-year mortality and may serve as a bellwether for slowed cellular regeneration or as a marker of cumulative toxic environmental exposures. This finding provides clues for pinpointing an underlying mechanism related to a fundamental component of the aging process.

  2. The interaction between stress and positive affect in predicting mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okely, Judith A; Weiss, Alexander; Gale, Catharine R

    2017-09-01

    Positive affect is associated with longevity; according to the stress-buffering hypothesis, this is because positive affect reduces the health harming effects of psychological stress. If this mechanism plays a role, then the association between positive affect and mortality risk should be most apparent among individuals who report higher stress. Here, we test this hypothesis. The sample consisted of 8542 participants aged 32-86 from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES I) Epidemiological Follow-up Study (NHEFS). We used Cox's proportional hazards regression to test for the main effects of and the interaction between positive affect and perceived stress in predicting mortality risk over a 10year follow up period. Greater positive affect was associated with lower mortality risk. We found a significant interaction between positive affect and perceived stress such that the association between positive affect and mortality risk was stronger in people reporting higher stress. In the fully adjusted model, a standard deviation increase in positive affect was associated with a 16% (HR=0.84; 95% CI=0.75, 0.95) reduction in mortality risk among participants who reported high levels of stress. The association between positive affect and mortality risk was weaker and not significant among participants who reported low levels of stress (HR=0.98; 95% CI=0.89, 1.08). Our results support the stress-buffering model and illustrate that the association between positive affect and reduced risk may be strongest under challenging circumstances. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Life-Space Mobility Change Predicts 6-Month Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kennedy, Richard E; Sawyer, Patricia; Williams, Courtney P; Lo, Alexander X; Ritchie, Christine S; Roth, David L; Allman, Richard M; Brown, Cynthia J

    2017-04-01

    To examine 6-month change in life-space mobility as a predictor of subsequent 6-month mortality in community-dwelling older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community-dwelling older adults from five Alabama counties in the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) Study of Aging. A random sample of 1,000 Medicare beneficiaries, stratified according to sex, race, and rural or urban residence, recruited between November 1999 and February 2001, followed by a telephone interview every 6 months for the subsequent 8.5 years. Mortality data were determined from informant contacts and confirmed using the National Death Index and Social Security Death Index. Life-space was measured at each interview using the UAB Life-Space Assessment, a validated instrument for assessing community mobility. Eleven thousand eight hundred seventeen 6-month life-space change scores were calculated over 8.5 years of follow-up. Generalized linear mixed models were used to test predictors of mortality at subsequent 6-month intervals. Three hundred fifty-four deaths occurred within 6 months of two sequential life-space assessments. Controlling for age, sex, race, rural or urban residence, and comorbidity, life-space score and life-space decline over the preceding 6-month interval predicted mortality. A 10-point decrease in life-space resulted in a 72% increase in odds of dying over the subsequent 6 months (odds ratio = 1.723, P space score at the beginning of a 6-month interval and change in life-space over 6 months were each associated with significant differences in subsequent 6-month mortality. Life-space assessment may assist clinicians in identifying older adults at risk of short-term mortality. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  4. PLASMA NITRITE FLUX PREDICTS EXERCISE PERFORMANCE IN PERIPHERAL ARTERIAL DISEASE FOLLOWING 3 MONTHS OF EXERCISE TRAINING

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jason D; Stabler, Thomas; Kenjale, Aarti; Ham, Katherine L.; Robbins, Jennifer.L.; Duscha, Brian D; Dobrosielski, Devon A; Annex, Brian H

    2010-01-01

    Plasma nitrite is a major oxidation product of nitric oxide. It has also recently been suggested to perform an endocrine-like function as a nitric oxide donor in hypoxic tissues, allowing vasodilation. Exercise performance is limited in peripheral arterial disease due to an inadequate blood supply to working tissues. We hypothesized that exercise training in peripheral arterial disease subjects will demonstrate improved “plasma nitrite flux” and endothelial function, to accompany increased exercise performance. Peripheral arterial disease subjects were tested at baseline and following 3 months supervised or home exercise training. Venous blood (arm) was drawn at rest and 10min following a maximal graded treadmill test. Samples were added to heparin, centrifuged and plasma snap frozen for analysis by reductive chemiluminescence. Brachial artery endothelial function was measured in response to a hyperemic stimulus (flow-mediated dilation). At 3 months the peripheral arterial disease-supervised exercise group showed increases in claudication onset pain time (+138sec, p≤0.05) peak walking time (+260sec, p≤0.01), VO2peak (1.3ml/kg/min, p≤0.05), brachial artery flow-mediated dilation (+2%, p≤0.05) and plasma nitrite flux (+33% p≤0.05). There were no changes in the peripheral arterial disease-home exercise group. The change in plasma nitrite flux predicted the change in claudication onset pain (r2=0.59, p≤0.01). These findings suggest changes in plasma nitrite are related to endothelial function and predict exercise performance in peripheral arterial disease. PMID:20620208

  5. Heart rate variability predicts mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Juan; Tang, Wen; Li, Li-Xian; Su, Chun-Yan; Wang, Tao

    2015-08-01

    The predictive value of heart rate variability (HRV) in peritoneal dialysis (PD) has never been tested. In this study, the associations between HRV measures and the mortality in 81 PD patients were analyzed. HRV was measured by using 5-min recordings of a stationary system by a standardized method. Both time domain and frequency domain parameters were analyzed. During a follow-up period of 43.78 ± 14.77 months, 25 patients died, four patients were transferred to hemodialysis. Of the 81 patients, the time domain parameters, such as the standard deviation of differences between adjacent normal sinus to normal sinus (NN) intervals (SDSD) and the square root of the mean of the squared differences between adjacent normal NN intervals (RMSSD), were higher; the frequency domain parameters, such as the ratio of low-frequency power to high-frequency power (LF/HF) and the normalized LF, were lower, and the normalized HF was higher in the non-survived group as compared with the survived group. A Cox proportional hazards model analysis revealed that, of the HRV measures, decrease of the normalized LF, LF/HF and increase of rMSSD, SDSD, normalized HF had significant predictive value for mortality. After adjustment for other univariate predictors including age, urine volume, renal Kt/V, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), the predictive value of decreased LF/HF remained significant. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed mortality rate was much higher in patients with a low LF/HF (median value of 1.56). The decreases of LF/HF which reflects impaired sympathetic nerve regulation is an independent predictor of mortality in PD patients.

  6. Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Piotr Major

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction : Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS, which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. Aim : To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Material and methods: Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB. Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Results: Complications were observed in 30 (7.35% patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53–2.44, p = 0.744. The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091. Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800. Conclusions : It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

  7. Prognostic capacity of a clinically indicated exercise test for cardiovascular mortality is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minkkinen, Mikko; Nieminen, Tuomo; Verrier, Richard L; Leino, Johanna; Lehtimäki, Terho; Viik, Jari; Lehtinen, Rami; Nikus, Kjell; Kööbi, Tiit; Turjanmaa, Väinö; Kähönen, Mika

    2015-09-01

    Exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans are independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality. We tested whether these parameters contain supplementary prognostic information. A total of 3609 consecutive patients (2157 men) referred for a routine, clinically indicated bicycle exercise test were enrolled in the Finnish Cardiovascular Study (FINCAVAS). Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents, heart rate recovery as the decrease in heart rate from maximum to one minute post-exercise, and T-wave alternans by time-domain Modified Moving Average method. During 57-month median follow-up (interquartile range 35-78 months), 96 patients died of cardiovascular causes (primary endpoint) and 233 from any cause. All three parameters were independent predictors of cardiovascular mortality when analysed as continuous variables. Adding metabolic equivalents (p cardiovascular mortality. The combination of low exercise capacity (cardiovascular mortality of 16.5 (95% confidence interval 4.0-67.7, p cardiovascular mortality with previously defined cutpoints (exercise test is enhanced by combined analysis of exercise capacity, heart rate recovery and T-wave alternans. © The European Society of Cardiology 2014.

  8. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yinan; Joyce, Brian T; Colicino, Elena; Liu, Lei; Zhang, Wei; Dai, Qi; Shrubsole, Martha J; Kibbe, Warren A; Gao, Tao; Zhang, Zhou; Jafari, Nadereh; Vokonas, Pantel; Schwartz, Joel; Baccarelli, Andrea A; Hou, Lifang

    2016-03-01

    Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages) can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3-5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02) and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02-1.10) and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07-1.28). Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.02). Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a 'J-shaped' manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  9. Risk of mortality increases with increasing number of abnormal non-ST parameters recorded during exercise testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, John S; Fitzgerald, Shannon J; Barlow, Carolyn E; Cannaday, John J; Kohl, Harold W; Haskell, William L; Cooper, Kenneth H

    2010-08-01

    Abnormal non-ST segment treadmill parameters are associated with an increased mortality risk. Such measures include fitness, resting heart rate (HR), chronotropic incompetence, and HR recovery. However, whether there is an additive association among these parameters and the risk of mortality is unknown. Prospective observational registry study. We assessed the risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in 25 642 individuals as an additive function of the number of these parameters. Abnormal responses were defined as follows: abnormal resting HR as a HR>or=80 bpm, abnormal fitness as an adjusted fitness level in the lowest 20%, chronotropic incompetence as an inability to achieve at least 80% of the predicted HR reserve, and abnormal HR recovery as an HR decline less than 12 bpm 1 min after exercise. During 7.2 years of follow-up, 392 participants died, with 94 from cardiovascular causes. Each parameter was significantly associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (Pmortality and the number of abnormal parameters (Ptesting.

  10. Tricuspid flow propagation velocity predicts exercise tolerance and readmission in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chin-Chang; Huang, Wei-Chun; Chiou, Kuan-Rau; Hsiao, Shih-Hung; Lin, Shih-Kai; Lu, Ling-Ying; Tseng, Jui-Cheng; Hu, Jui-Chieh; Mar, Guang-Yuan; Chiou, Chuen-Wang; Lin, Shoa-Lin; Liu, Chun-Peng

    2009-04-01

    Evaluating right ventricular dysfunction, pulmonary artery systolic pressure (PASP), and exercise tolerance is critical in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) because of the high mortality rate in such patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). The aim of this study was to use the flow propagation velocity (FPV) of early diastolic tricuspid inflow to evaluate exercise tolerance and PAH severity and to predict readmission in patients with SLE. A total of 66 patients with SLE with or without PAH and 30 healthy control subjects were enrolled. Controls were age-matched to patients with SLE and without PAH. All patients completed the 6-minute walking distance (6MWD) test and underwent standard echocardiography. Tricuspid FPV was measured in the modified parasternal short-axis view using the color M-mode technique. PAH was defined as PASP > 35 mm Hg using the tricuspid regurgitant method. Patients with SLE and PAH had significantly lower tricuspid FPVs and 6MWDs than patients in the other 2 groups (both P values or = 35.4 cm/s predicted 6MWD > or = 350 m and a lower 1-year readmission rate with good sensitivity and specificity. The tricuspid FPV technique provides a simple method for predicting exercise tolerance, the severity of PAH, and readmission among patients with SLE.

  11. [Predictive mortality value of the peritonitis index of Mannheim].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrera Melgarejo, Elizabeth; Rodríguez Castro, Manuel; Borda Luque, Giuliano; Najar Trujillo, Néstor

    2010-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of the index of peritonitis of Mannheim in patients with peritonitis in the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia. A prospective study appears, of 103 patients, greater of 14 years, with I diagnose of peritonitis, between November 2004 to April 2005. For its analysis I am used the square test of chi with coefficient of Pearson, and the test of T of student. For the analysis of the data two modalities were used, the first patients were divided in 3 groups, according to the value of the index of Mannheim, 29, and in 2 groups, d 26 and > 26 points. I am made considered of survival of Kaplan the Meier, using statistical program STATA 8.0 a mortality of 50% in patients with greater index of 26 points was obtained. One was a sensitivity 95.9%, a specificity of 80%, with positive a predictive value 98.9% and a negative predictive value of 50%. When considering 3 groups, 29 points, was a mortality of 60% in patients with greater index of 29. I am made a survival curve obtaining itself a significant difference with a p=0, 0098. Figure 2. We found that the classification in 3 groups presents statistically significant difference, reason why recommended its use for the evaluation and beginning of aggressive measures.

  12. VO2peak prediction and exercise prescription for pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mottola, Michelle F; Davenport, Margie H; Brun, Chantale R; Inglis, Stuart D; Charlesworth, Sarah; Sopper, Maggie M

    2006-08-01

    The present study was designed to develop and validate a prediction equation for peak oxygen consumption VO2peak) using a progressive treadmill test and to refine the current target HR exercise guidelines for pregnancy (PARmed-X for Pregnancy). One hundred fifty-six women between 16 and 22 wk of gestation performed the test to volitional fatigue (peak exercise test). Data from every fourth subject were used to form the cross-validation group. The women were separated into two age groups; 20-29 (N = 60) and 30-39 (N = 96) yr of age and then further separated into fit (VO2peak at the top 25th percentile), unfit (VO2peak at the bottom 25th percentile), and active (between these two ranges). HR and VO2peak values were used in the regression equation to predict target HR ranges at 60 and 80% VO2peak. The prediction equation (R2 = 0.72, R2adjusted = 0.71 and SEE = 2.7) was compared with cross validation (N = 39; P = 0.78). Fit women had a VO2peak > or = 27.2 mL.kg(-1).min(-1) and > or = 26.1 mL.kg.min for ages 20-29 and 30-39 yr, respectively, representing the top 25th percentile. Unfit women had a VO2peak of pregnant women using a progressive treadmill exercise test. The defined target HR zones based on age and the appropriate fitness levels can be used for exercise prescription in healthy pregnant women.

  13. Predicting In-Hospital Maternal Mortality in Senegal and Mali

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndour, Cheikh; Dossou Gbété, Simplice; Bru, Noelle; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Fauconnier, Arnaud; Traoré, Mamadou; Diop, Aliou; Fournier, Pierre; Dumont, Alexandre

    2013-01-01

    Objective We sought to identify predictors of in-hospital maternal mortality among women attending referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional epidemiological survey using data from a cluster randomized controlled trial (QUARITE trial) in 46 referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal, during the pre-intervention period of the trial (from October 1st 2007 to October 1st 2008). We included 89,518 women who delivered in the 46 hospitals during this period. Data were collected on women's characteristics, obstetric complications, and vital status until the hospital discharge. We developed a tree-like classification rule (classification rule) to identify patient subgroups at high risk of maternal in-hospital mortality. Results Our analyses confirm that patients with uterine rupture, hemorrhage or prolonged/obstructed labor, and those who have an emergency ante-partum cesarean delivery have an increased risk of in-hospital mortality, especially if they are referred from another health facility. Twenty relevant patterns, based on fourteen predictors variables, are used to predict in-hospital maternal mortality with 81.41% sensitivity (95% CI = [77.12%–87.70%]) and 81.6% specificity (95% CI = [81.16%–82.02%]). Conclusion The proposed class association rule method will help health care professionals in referral hospitals in Mali and Senegal to identify mothers at high risk of in-hospital death, and can provide scientific evidence on which to base their decisions to manage patients delivering in their health facilities. PMID:23737972

  14. Blood Epigenetic Age may Predict Cancer Incidence and Mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yinan Zheng

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Biological measures of aging are important for understanding the health of an aging population, with epigenetics particularly promising. Previous studies found that tumor tissue is epigenetically older than its donors are chronologically. We examined whether blood Δage (the discrepancy between epigenetic and chronological ages can predict cancer incidence or mortality, thus assessing its potential as a cancer biomarker. In a prospective cohort, Δage and its rate of change over time were calculated in 834 blood leukocyte samples collected from 442 participants free of cancer at blood draw. About 3–5 years before cancer onset or death, Δage was associated with cancer risks in a dose-responsive manner (P = 0.02 and a one-year increase in Δage was associated with cancer incidence (HR: 1.06, 95% CI: 1.02–1.10 and mortality (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.07–1.28. Participants with smaller Δage and decelerated epigenetic aging over time had the lowest risks of cancer incidence (P = 0.003 and mortality (P = 0.02. Δage was associated with cancer incidence in a ‘J-shaped’ manner for subjects examined pre-2003, and with cancer mortality in a time-varying manner. We conclude that blood epigenetic age may mirror epigenetic abnormalities related to cancer development, potentially serving as a minimally invasive biomarker for cancer early detection.

  15. Larger Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Volume Predicts Better Exercise Adherence Among Older Women: Evidence From Two Exercise Training Studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, John R; Chiu, Bryan K; Hall, Peter A; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

    2017-06-01

    Recent research has suggested an important role of lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) in consistent implementation of positive health behaviors and avoidance of negative health behaviors. We examined whether gray matter volume in the lPFC prospectively predicts exercise class attendance among older women (n = 122) who underwent either a 52-week or 26-week exercise training intervention. Structural magnetic resonance imaging determined gray matter volume at baseline. Independent of intracranial volume, age, education, body composition, mobility, depressive symptoms, and general cognitive functioning, larger lPFC volume predicted greater exercise class attendance (all p values exercise adherence as well as identified other regions, especially in the insula and temporal cortex, that predicted exercise adherence. These findings suggest that sustained engagement in exercise training might rely in part on functions of the lPFC and that lPFC volume might be a reasonable proxy for such functions.

  16. Cardiopulmonary exercise factors predict survival in patients with advanced interstitial lung disease referred for lung transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Layton, Aimee M; Armstrong, Hilary F; Kim, Hanyoung P; Meza, Kimbery S; D'Ovidio, Frank; Arcasoy, Selim M

    2017-05-01

    The purpose of this work was to determine if parameters assessed during Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing (CPET) while using supplemental oxygen can independently predict one-year transplant-free survival in patients with Interstitial Lung Disease (ILD) referred for lung transplant evaluation. We performed a chart review of patients with ILD who completed CPET with 30% FiO2 and gathered spirometry, pulmonary hemodynamic, six-minute walk, and CPET data. The primary end-point was death or lung transplantation within one-year of CPET. The final data set included 192 patients. 79 patients died/underwent transplant, 113 survived transplant-free. Multivariable Cox regression revealed peak workload % predicted, nadir CPET SpO2, and FVC% predicted as independent predictors of one-year transplant-free survival. Of the independent predictors of survival, receiver operating characteristics analysis revealed peak workload %predicted cutoff of 35% to be highly discriminatory, more so than nadir CPET SpO2 or FVC % predicted in identifying patients at risk for one-year mortality or transplant (peak workload % predicted < 35% HR = 4.71, 95% CI = 2.64-8.38 and area under the curve (AUC) = 0.740, nadir CPET SpO2 < 86% HR = 2.27, 95%CI = 1.41-3.68, AUC = 0.645, FVC %predicted <45% HR = 1.82, 95% CI = 1.15-2.87, AUC = 0.624). Peak workload % predicted, nadir CPET SpO2, and FVC% predicted in ILD patients referred for lung transplant evaluation are independently predictive of one-year mortality or need for transplant. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Cardiorespiratory optimal point during exercise testing as a predictor of all-cause mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, Plínio S; Araújo, Claudio Gil S

    2017-04-01

    The cardiorespiratory optimal point (COP) is a novel index, calculated as the minimum oxygen ventilatory equivalent (VE/VO 2 ) obtained during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this study we demonstrate the prognostic value of COP both independently and in combination with maximum oxygen consumption (VO 2 max) in community-dwelling adults. Maximal cycle ergometer CPET was performed in 3331 adults (66% men) aged 40-85 years, healthy (18%) or with chronic disease (81%). COP cut-off values of 30 were selected based on the log-rank test. Risk discrimination was assessed using COP as an independent predictor and combined with VO 2 max. Median follow-up was 6.4 years (7.1% mortality). Subjects with COP >30 demonstrated increased mortality compared to those with COP 30 of 3.72 (95% CI 1.98-6.98; p30, either independently or in combination with low VO 2 max, is a good predictor of all-cause mortality in community-dwelling adults (healthy or with chronic disease). COP is a submaximal prognostic index that is simple to obtain and adds to CPET assessment, especially for adults unable or unwilling to achieve maximal exercise. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  18. Fitness and fatness as mortality predictors in healthy older men: the veterans exercise testing study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAuley, Paul; Pittsley, Jesse; Myers, Jonathan; Abella, Joshua; Froelicher, Victor F

    2009-06-01

    Low body mass index (BMI) and low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) are independently associated with increased mortality in the elderly. However, interactions among BMI, CRF, and mortality in older persons have not been adequately explored. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated for predetermined strata of BMI and CRF. Independent and joint associations of CRF, BMI, and all-cause mortality were assessed by Cox proportional hazards analyses in a prospective cohort of 981 healthy men aged at least 65 years (mean age [+/-SD], 71 [+/-5] years; range, 65-88 years) referred for exercise testing during 1987-2003. During a mean follow-up of 6.9 +/- 4.4 years, a total of 208 patients died. Multivariate relative risks (95% confidence interval [CI]) of mortality across BMI groups of or =35.0 were 2.51 (1.26-4.98), 1.0 (reference), 0.66 (0.48-0.90), 0.50 (0.31-0.78), and 0.44 (0.20-0.97), respectively, and across CRF groups of 8.0 metabolic equivalents were 1.0 (reference), 0.56 (0.40-0.78), and 0.39 (0.26-0.58), respectively. In a separate analysis of within-strata CRF according to BMI grouping, the lowest mortality risk was observed in obese men with high fitness (HR [95% CI] 0.26 [0.10-0.69]; p = .007). In this cohort of elderly male veterans, we observed independent and joint inverse relations of BMI and CRF to mortality. This warrants further investigation of fitness, fatness, and mortality interactions in older persons.

  19. Mortality Prediction in Patients with Spontaneous Supratentorial Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexis Suárez Quesada

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage is the deadliest, most disabling, and least treatable form of stroke. No therapy has proven to improve its outcome or reduce its mortality. Objective: to identify predictors of mortality in patients with spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage. Methods: a single cohort study was conducted involving 176 patients admitted consecutively to the stroke ward of the Carlos Manuel de Céspedes Provincial General Hospital with neuroimaging and clinical diagnosis of spontaneous supratentorial intracerebral hemorrhage from January 2013 to November 2015. Independent predictors were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. Results: seventy four point four percent of the patients were hypertensive. The median age among those who died was 67.45 ± 14.84 years. Forty three point eight percent of the patients under study died. Subjects with fatal outcome had lower score on the Glasgow Coma Scale (10.00 ± 3.47 vs. 14.00 ± 1.93, higher hematoma volume expressed in cubic centimeters (26.27 ± 36.86 vs. 6.19 ± 19.59, and displacement of the midline structures (2.00 ± 5.95 vs. 0.00 ± 4.49. The following predictors were identified: Glasgow score ≤ 10 points (Exp (B: 10.74; 95 % CI=4.69 to 24.59, hematoma volume ≥ 20 cm3 (Exp (B: 4.44; 95 % CI= 1.95 to 10.06, and pulse pressure ≥ 60 mmHg (Exp (B: 2.42, 95 % CI=1.10 to 5.33. The area under the ROC curve was 0.85. Conclusions: the Glasgow Coma Scale is the most significant independent variable to predict mortality in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

  20. Illness Beliefs Predict Mortality in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vedhara, Kavita; Dawe, Karen; Miles, Jeremy N V; Wetherell, Mark A; Cullum, Nicky; Dayan, Colin; Drake, Nicola; Price, Patricia; Tarlton, John; Weinman, John; Day, Andrew; Campbell, Rona; Reps, Jenna; Soria, Daniele

    2016-01-01

    Patients' illness beliefs have been associated with glycaemic control in diabetes and survival in other conditions. We examined whether illness beliefs independently predicted survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. Patients (n=169) were recruited between 2002 and 2007. Data on illness beliefs were collected at baseline. Data on survival were extracted on 1st November 2011. Number of days survived reflected the number of days from date of recruitment to 1st November 2011. Cox regressions examined the predictors of time to death and identified ischemia and identity beliefs (beliefs regarding symptoms associated with foot ulceration) as significant predictors of time to death. Our data indicate that illness beliefs have a significant independent effect on survival in patients with diabetes and foot ulceration. These findings suggest that illness beliefs could improve our understanding of mortality risk in this patient group and could also be the basis for future therapeutic interventions to improve survival.

  1. Fragmentation and stability of circadian activity rhythms predict mortality : the rotterdam study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zuurbier, Lisette A; Luik, Annemarie I; Hofman, Albert; Franco, Oscar H; Van Someren, Eus J W; Tiemeier, Henning

    2015-01-01

    Circadian rhythms and sleep patterns change as people age. Little is known about the associations between circadian rhythms and mortality rates. We investigated whether 24-hour activity rhythms and sleep characteristics independently predicted mortality. Actigraphy was used to determine the

  2. Baseline Systolic Blood Pressure Response to Exercise Stress Test Can Predict Exercise Indices following Cardiac Rehabilitation Program

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akram Sardari

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Systolic blood pressure recovery (rSBP is of prognostic value for predicting the survival and co-morbidity rate in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD. This study investigated the association between rSBP and exercise indices after complete cardiac rehabilitation program (CR in a population-based sample of patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG.Methods: The sample population consisted of 352 patients who underwent pure CABG. The patients underwent standard symptom-limited exercise testing immediately before and also after the completion of the CR sessions. rSBP was defined as the ratio of the systolic blood pressure at 3 minutes in recovery to the systolic blood pressure at peak exercise.Results: An abnormal baseline rSBP after exercise was a strong predictor of exercise parameters in the last session, including metabolic equivalents (β = -0.617, SE = 0.127, p value < 0.001 and peak O2 consumption (β = -1.950, SE = 0.363, p value < 0.001 measured in the last session adjusted for baseline exercise characteristics, demographics, function class, and left ventricular ejection fraction.Conclusion: The current study strongly emphasizes the predictive role of baseline rSBP after exercise in evaluating exercise parameters following CR. This baseline index can predict abnormal METs value, peak O2 consumption, post-exercise heart rate, and heart rate recovery after a 24-session CR program.

  3. Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

    2012-01-01

    There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

  4. Trends in referral patterns, invasive management, and mortality in elderly patients referred for exercise stress testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Peteiro, Jesús; Broullón, Francisco J; Calviño-Santos, Ramón; Mosquera, Víctor X; Barbeito-Caamaño, Cayetana; Larrañaga-Moreira, José María; Maneiro-Melón, Nicolás; Álvarez-García, Nemesio; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel

    2015-12-01

    Scarce data are available on the temporal patterns in clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly patients referred for exercise stress testing. We aimed to assess the trends in baseline characteristics, tests results, referrals for invasive management, and mortality in these patients. We evaluated 11,192 patients aged ≥65years who were referred for exercise stress testing between January 1998 and December 2013. Calendar years were grouped into four quadrennia (1998-2001, 2002-2005, 2006-2009, and 2010-2013), and trends in clinical characteristics of the patients, type and results of the tests, referrals for invasive management, and mortality across the different periods were assessed. Despite a progressive decrease in the proportion of patients with non-interpretable baseline electrocardiograms or prior history of coronary artery disease, there was a gradual and marked increase in the use of cardiac imaging from 32.8% in 1998-2001 to 67.6% in 2010-2013 (ptesting both without imaging (from 18.9 to 13.6%, pmortality also decreased progressively from 3% to 1.6% (ptesting, we observed a decline over time in the probability of inducible myocardial ischemia, an increase in the use of cardiac imaging and in the rate of coronary revascularization, and an improvement in the survival rate at 1year. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Added value of a resting ECG neural network that predicts cardiovascular mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez, Marco V; Dewey, Frederick E; Tan, Swee Y; Myers, Jonathan; Froelicher, Victor F

    2009-01-01

    The resting 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) remains the most commonly used test in evaluating patients with suspected cardiovascular disease. Prognostic values of individual findings on the ECG have been reported but may be of limited use. The characteristics of 45,855 ECGs ordered by physician's discretion were first recorded and analyzed using a computerized system. Ninety percent of these ECGs were used to train an artifical neural network (ANN) to predict cardiovascular mortality (CVM) based on 132 ECG and four demographic characteristics. The ANN generated a Resting ECG Neural Network (RENN) score that was then tested in the remaining ECGs. The RENN score was finally assessed in a cohort of 2189 patients who underwent exercise treadmill testing and were followed for CVM. The RENN score was able to better predict CVM compared to individual ECG markers or a traditional Cox regression model in the testing cohort. Over a mean of 8.6 years, there were 156 cardiovascular deaths in the treadmill cohort. Among the patients who were classified as intermediate risk by Duke Treadmill Scoring (DTS), the third tertile of the RENN score demonstrated an adjusted Cox hazard ratio of 5.4 (95% CI 2.0-15.2) compared to the first RENN tertile. The 10-year CVM was 2.8%, 8.6% and 22% in the first, second and third RENN tertiles, respectively. An ANN that uses the resting ECG and demographic variables to predict CVM was created. The RENN score can further risk stratify patients deemed at moderate risk on exercise treadmill testing.

  6. Impact of combined exercise training on cardiovascular autonomic control and mortality in diabetic ovariectomized rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanches, Iris C; Conti, Filipe F; Bernardes, Nathalia; Brito, Janaina de O; Galdini, Elia G; Cavaglieri, Cláudia R; Irigoyen, Maria-Cláudia; De Angelis, Kátia

    2015-09-15

    The purpose of this study was to compare the effects of aerobic, resistance, or combined exercise training on cardiovascular autonomic control and mortality in diabetic ovariectomized rats. Female Wistar rats were divided into one of five groups: euglycemic sedentary (ES), diabetic ovariectomized sedentary (DOS), diabetic ovariectomized aerobic-trained (DOTA), diabetic ovariectomized resistance-trained (DOTR), or diabetic ovariectomized aerobic+resistance-trained (DOTC). Arterial pressure (AP) was directly recorded and baroreflex sensitivity was evaluated by heart rate responses to AP changes. Cardiovascular autonomic modulation was evaluated by spectral analyses. No differences were observed in body weight and glycemia between diabetic rats. Animals in the DOTC and DOTA groups exhibited an increase in running time, whereas animals in the DOTC and DOTR groups showed greater strength. Trained groups exhibited improvement in total power and the high-frequency band of pulse interval and reduced mortality (vs. DOS). Animals in the DOTC (bradycardic and tachycardic responses) and DOTA (tachycardic responses) groups exhibited attenuation in baroreflex dysfunction that was observed in DOS and DOTR animals, and an improvement in AP variance. In conclusion, all training protocols led to reduced mortality, which may be due to an increase in physical capacity and to cardiovascular and autonomic benefits following training, regardless of any improvement in glycemic control. In this model, the aerobic and combined trainings seem to promote additional cardiovascular autonomic benefits when compared with resistance training alone. Copyright © 2015 the American Physiological Society.

  7. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study wa...... tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation.......OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study...... was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...

  8. Which leukocyte subsets predict cardiovascular mortality? From the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular Health (LURIC) Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    ó Hartaigh, B.; Bosch, J.A.; Thomas, G.N.; Lord, J.M.; Pilz, S.; Loerbroks, A.; Kleber, M.E.; Grammer, T.B.; Fischer, J.E.; Boehm, B.O.; März, W.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: White blood cells are known to predict cardiovascular mortality, but form a highly heterogeneous population. It is therefore possible that specific subtypes disproportionally contribute to the prediction of cardiovascular outcomes. Therefore, we compared leukocyte subsets alone and in

  9. Observable impairments predict mortality of captured and released sockeye salmon at various temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gale, Marika Kirstin; Hinch, Scott G.; Cooke, Steven J.; Donaldson, Michael R.; Eliason, Erika J.; Jeffries, Ken M.; Martins, Eduardo G.; Patterson, David A.

    2014-01-01

    Migrating adult sockeye salmon frequently encounter commercial and recreational fishing gear, from which they may be landed, escape or be intentionally released. In this experiment, migratory adult sockeye salmon were exposed to simulated capture–release in fresh water, including 3 min of exhaustive exercise and 60 s of air exposure at three ecologically relevant water temperatures (13, 16 and 19°C) to understand how thermal and capture–release stressors may interact to increase mortality risk. Water temperature and sex were the factors that best predicted 24 and 48 h survival, with females in the warmest temperature group experiencing the greatest mortality. Capture–release treatment including air exposure was associated with equilibrium loss and depressed ventilation rates at release; the probability of fish surviving for 24 h after simulated capture–release was >50% if the duration of equilibrium loss was 1 breath s−1. Higher haematocrit and plasma lactate as well as lower mean cell haemoglobin concentration and plasma sodium and chloride 30 min after simulated capture–release were also significant predictors of 24 h survival. Together, the results demonstrate that simple observations that are consistent with physiological disturbance can be used as predictors for post-release short-term survival for sockeye salmon. The markedly higher post-stressor mortality observed in females demonstrates that managers should consider sex-specific variation in response to different fisheries interactions, particularly in the face of climate change. PMID:27293650

  10. Predicting utility of exercise tests based on history/holter in patients with premature ventricular contractions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robinson, Brad; Xie, Li; Temple, Joel; Octavio, Jenna; Srayyih, Maytham; Thacker, Deepika; Kharouf, Rami; Davies, Ryan; Gidding, Samuel S

    2015-01-01

    Premature ventricular contractions (PVCs) are considered benign in patients with structurally normal hearts, particularly if they suppress with exercise. Catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT) requires exercise testing to unmask the malignant phenotype. We studied risk factors and Holter monitor variables to help predict the necessity of exercise testing in patients with PVCs. We retrospectively reviewed 81 patients with PVCs that suppressed at peak exercise and structurally normal hearts referred to the exercise laboratory in 2011. We reviewed 11 patients from 2003 to 2012 whose PVCs were augmented at peak exercise (mean age 13 ± 4 years; 52 % male, 180 exercise studies). We recorded clinical risk factors and comorbidities (family history of arrhythmia or sudden unexpected death [SUD], presence of syncope) and Holter testing parameters. Family history of VT or SUD (P = 0.011) and presence of VT on Holter (P = 0.011) were significant in predicting failure of PVCs to suppress at peak heart rate on exercise testing. Syncope was not statistically significant in predicting suppression (P = 0.18); however, CPVT was diagnosed in four patients with syncope during exercise. Quantity of PVCs, Lown grade, couplets on Holter, monomorphism, and PVC elimination at peak heart rate on Holter were not predictors of PVC suppression on exercise testing. Patients with syncope during exercise, family history of arrhythmia or SUD, or a Holter monitor showing VT warrant exercise testing to assess for CPVT.

  11. Comprehensive analysis of cardiopulmonary exercise testing and mortality in patients with systolic heart failure: the Henry Ford Hospital cardiopulmonary exercise testing (FIT-CPX) project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brawner, Clinton A; Shafiq, Ali; Aldred, Heather A; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Leifer, Eric S; Selektor, Yelena; Tita, Cristina; Velez, Mauricio; Williams, Celeste T; Schairer, John R; Lanfear, David E; Keteyian, Steven J

    2015-09-01

    Many studies have shown a strong association between numerous variables from a cardiopulmonary exercise (CPX) test and prognosis in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). However, few studies have compared the prognostic value of a majority of these variables simultaneously, so controversy remains regarding optimal interpretation. This was a retrospective analysis of patients with HFrEF (n = 1,201; age = 55 ± 13 y; 33% female) and a CPX test from 1997 to 2010. Thirty variables from a CPX test were considered in separate adjusted Cox regression analyses to describe the strength of the relation of each to a composite end point of all-cause mortality, left ventricular assist device implantation, or heart transplantation. During a median follow-up of 3.8 years, there were 577 (48.0%) events. The majority of variables were highly significant (P test variables were strongly associated with prognosis in patients with HFrEF. The choice of which variable to use is up to the clinician. Renewed attention should be given to ppMV˙O2, which appears to be highly predictive of survival in these patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

    2007-01-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy.......Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

  13. Low expression of thiosulfate sulfurtransferase (rhodanese) predicts mortality in hemodialysis patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krueger, Katharina; Koch, Kathrin; Jühling, Anja

    2010-01-01

    To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients.......To test the hypothesis that impaired expression of the thiosulfate sulfurtransferase rhodanese is associated with oxidative stress and may predict mortality in hemodialysis patients....

  14. A non-exercise testing method for estimating cardiorespiratory fitness: associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in a pooled analysis of eight population-based cohorts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamatakis, Emmanuel; Hamer, Mark; O'Donovan, Gary; Batty, George David; Kivimaki, Mika

    2013-03-01

    Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is a key predictor of chronic disease, particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD), but its assessment usually requires exercise testing which is impractical and costly in most health-care settings. Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness (NET-F)-estimating methods are a less resource-demanding alternative, but their predictive capacity for CVD and total mortality has yet to be tested. The objective of this study is to examine the association of a validated NET-F algorithm with all-cause and CVD mortality. The participants were 32,319 adults (14,650 men) aged 35-70 years who took part in eight Health Survey for England and Scottish Health Survey studies between 1994 and 2003. Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness (a metabolic equivalent of VO2max) was calculated using age, sex, body mass index (BMI), resting heart rate, and self-reported physical activity. We followed participants for mortality until 2008. Two thousand one hundred and sixty-five participants died (460 cardiovascular deaths) during a mean 9.0 [standard deviation (SD) = 3.6] year follow-up. After adjusting for potential confounders including diabetes, hypertension, smoking, social class, alcohol, and depression, a higher fitness score according to the NET-F was associated with a lower risk of mortality from all-causes (hazard ratio per SD increase in NET-F 0.85, 95% confidence interval: 0.78-0.93 in men; 0.88, 0.80-0.98 in women) and CVD (men: 0.75, 0.63-0.90; women: 0.73, 0.60-0.92). Non-exercise testing cardiorespiratory fitness had a better discriminative ability than any of its components (CVD mortality c-statistic: NET-F = 0.70-0.74; BMI = 0.45-0.59; physical activity = 0.60-0.64; resting heart rate = 0.57-0.61). The sensitivity of the NET-F algorithm to predict events occurring in the highest risk quintile was better for CVD (0.49 in both sexes) than all-cause mortality (0.44 and 0.40 for men and women, respectively). The specificity for all

  15. Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motomura Noboru

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

  16. Preoperative cardiopulmonary exercise testing and risk of early mortality following abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hartley, R A; Pichel, A C; Grant, S W; Hickey, G L; Lancaster, P S; Wisely, N A; McCollum, C N; Atkinson, D

    2012-11-01

    Cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) provides an objective assessment of functional capacity. The aim of this study was to assess whether preoperative CPET identifies patients at risk of early death following elective open and endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. Prospective data were collected from a pilot study between September 2005 and February 2007, and from all patients who underwent CPET before elective AAA repair at two vascular centres between February 2007 and November 2011. Symptom-limited, maximal CPET was performed on each patient. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to identify risk factors for 30- and 90-day mortality. Some 415 patients underwent CPET before elective AAA repair. Anaerobic threshold (AT), peak oxygen consumption (peak V.O(2) ) and ventilatory equivalents for carbon dioxide were associated with 30- and 90-day mortality on univariable analysis. On multivariable analysis, open repair (odds ratio (OR) 4·92, 95 per cent confidence interval 1·55 to 17·00; P = 0·008), AT below 10·2 ml per kg per min (OR 6·35, 1·84 to 29·80; P = 0·007), anaemia (OR 3·27, 1·04 to 10·50; P = 0·041) and inducible cardiac ischaemia (OR 6·16, 1·48 to 23·07; P = 0·008) were associated with 30-day mortality. Anaemia, inducible cardiac ischaemia and peak V.O(2) less than 15 ml per kg per min (OR 8·59, 2·33 to 55·75; P = 0·005) were associated with 90-day mortality on multivariable analysis. Patients with two or more subthreshold CPET values were at increased risk of both 30- and 90-day mortality. An AT below 10·2 ml per kg per min, peak V.O(2) less than 15 ml per kg per min and at least two subthreshold CPET values identify patients at increased risk of early death following AAA repair. Copyright © 2012 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  17. Cholecystokinin in plasma predicts cardiovascular mortality in elderly females

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gøtze, Jens P.; Rehfeld, Jens F; Alehagen, Urban

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Cholecystokinin (CCK) and gastrin are related gastrointestinal hormones with documented cardiovascular effects of exogenous administration. It is unknown whether measurement of endogenous CCK or gastrin in plasma contains information regarding cardiovascular mortality. METHODS......: Mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Elderly patients in a primary care setting with symptoms of cardiac disease, i.e. shortness of breath, peripheral edema, and/or fatigue, were evaluated (n=470). Primary care patients were followed for 13years...... (from 1999); the 5-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality was used as end point. RESULTS: In univariate analysis, patients in the 4th CCK quartile had an increased risk of 5-year cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio 3.9, 95% confidence interval: 2.1-7.0, p

  18. Prediction of Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Korea, 2016

    OpenAIRE

    Jung, Kyu-Won; Won, Young-Joo; Oh, Chang-Mo; Kong, Hyun-Joo; Cho, Hyunsoon; Lee, Jong-Keun; Lee, Duk Hyoung; Lee, Kang Hyun

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To estimate of Korea?s current cancer burden, this study aimed to report on projected cancer incidence and mortality rates for the year 2016. Materials and Methods: Cancer incidence data from 1999 to 2013 were obtained from the Korea National Cancer Incidence Database, and cancer mortality data from 1993 to 2014 were acquired from Statistics Korea. Cancer incidence in 2016 was projected by fitting a linear regression model to observed age-specific cancer incidence rates against obser...

  19. Can personality bridge the intention-behavior gap to predict who will exercise?

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacCann, Carolyn; Todd, Jemma; Mullan, Barbara A; Roberts, Richard D

    2015-01-01

    To explore whether HEXACO personality domains could incrementally increase the prediction of exercise behavior above Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) variables, and whether personality moderated the intention-behavior gap. US College students (N = 1017) completed demographic, TPB, HEXACO domain and exercise behavior measures. The TPB predicted physical activity, accounting for 45% and 39% of variance in intention and behavior, respectively. Regarding personality domains, lower emotionality significantly predicted intention, and lower honesty-humility significantly predicted behavior, but these were small effects. Personality did not moderate the intention-behavior gap. Personality has a limited direct role in predicting exercise intention and behavior beyond the TPB. The prediction of exercise behavior from honesty-humility highlights the importance of considering the HEXACO personality model.

  20. Using historical vital statistics to predict the distribution of under-five mortality by cause.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Chalapati; Adair, Timothy; Kinfu, Yohannes

    2011-06-01

    Cause-specific mortality data is essential for planning intervention programs to reduce mortality in the under age five years population (under-five). However, there is a critical paucity of such information for most of the developing world, particularly where progress towards the United Nations Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) has been slow. This paper presents a predictive cause of death model for under-five mortality based on historical vital statistics and discusses the utility of the model in generating information that could accelerate progress towards MDG 4. Over 1400 country years of vital statistics from 34 countries collected over a period of nearly a century were analyzed to develop relationships between levels of under-five mortality, related mortality ratios, and proportionate mortality from four cause groups: perinatal conditions; diarrhea and lower respiratory infections; congenital anomalies; and all other causes of death. A system of multiple equations with cross-equation parameter restrictions and correlated error terms was developed to predict proportionate mortality by cause based on given measures of under-five mortality. The strength of the predictive model was tested through internal and external cross-validation techniques. Modeled cause-specific mortality estimates for major regions in Africa, Asia, Central America, and South America are presented to illustrate its application across a range of under-five mortality rates. Consistent and plausible trends and relationships are observed from historical data. High mortality rates are associated with increased proportions of deaths from diarrhea and lower respiratory infections. Perinatal conditions assume importance as a proportionate cause at under-five mortality rates below 60 per 1000 live births. Internal and external validation confirms strength and consistency of the predictive model. Model application at regional level demonstrates heterogeneity and non-linearity in cause

  1. Exercise Self-Efficacy and Control Beliefs Predict Exercise Behavior After an Exercise Intervention for Older Adults

    OpenAIRE

    Neupert, Shevaun D.; Lachman, Margie E.; Whitbourne, Stacey B.

    2009-01-01

    The present study examined exercise self-efficacy and exercise behavior during and after a strength training intervention program with older adults. A model with cross-lagged and contemporaneous paths was tested with structural equations. Within testing occasions, higher physical resistance was related to greater beliefs in efficacy and control over exercise. At 3 months into the intervention, those who had higher physical resistance were less likely to show subsequent changes in beliefs. Tho...

  2. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 14 conifers in the Pacific Northwest, USA: Model evaluation, development, and thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindsay M. Grayson; Robert A. Progar; Sharon M. Hood

    2017-01-01

    Fire is a driving force in the North American landscape and predicting post-fire tree mortality is vital to land management. Post-fire tree mortality can have substantial economic and social impacts, and natural resource managers need reliable predictive methods to anticipate potential mortality following fire events. Current fire mortality models are limited to a few...

  3. The difficulty of predicting mortality in nursing home residents

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Steen, J.T.; Heijmans, M.W.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Kruse, R.; Mehr, D.

    2011-01-01

    Prognostic tools or risk scores that accurately estimate mortality risk could provide valuable information for elderly nursing home residents, their families, and physicians when establishing goals of care, such as when considering a shift to palliative care. Several Dutch and US studies found male

  4. [Prediction of hospital mortality of ST elevation myocardial infarction using TIMI score].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ugalde, Héctor; Yubini, María Cecilia; Rozas, Sebastián; Sanhueza, María Ignacia; Jara, Hernán

    2017-05-01

    Thrombolysis in myocardial infarction risk score (TIMI-RS) was designed to predict early mortality in patients with a ST elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEAMI). To evaluate the predictive capacity for hospital mortality of TIMI-RS. Patients with ≤ 12-hour evolution STEAMI were selected from a prospective registry of all patients hospitalized in our coronary unity within January 1988 and December 2005. Observed mortality was analyzed according to TIMI-RS and its predictive capacity was estimated. We analyzed 1125 consecutive patients aged 61 ± 13 years (76% men). Fifty one percent were smokers, 47% hypertensive and 40% had a history of angina. Fifty eight percent of patients underwent reperfusion therapy. Most patients had TIMI-RS scores ≤ 5 points and only 3.6% had scores ≥ 10 points. Overall mortality was 14.8% and there was an 80% concordance between observed mortality and that predicted with the TIMI-RS score. The area under the curve for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was 0.7. TIMI-RS was acceptably useful to predict in-hospital mortality in this group of patients with STEAMI. Differences between the observed and originally predicted mortality are explained by the clinical profile and therapeutic protocols applied to patients in different studies. Thus, caution needs to be taken when interpreting the risk associated to a specific score, particularly within non-reperfused patients whose risk might be underestimated.

  5. Smell Loss Predicts Mortality Risk Regardless of Dementia Conversion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekström, Ingrid; Sjölund, Sara; Nordin, Steven; Nordin Adolfsson, Annelie; Adolfsson, Rolf; Nilsson, Lars-Göran; Larsson, Maria; Olofsson, Jonas K

    2017-06-01

    To determine whether dementia could explain the association between poor olfactory performance and mortality risk within a decade-long follow-up period. Prospective cohort study. Betula Study, Umeå, Sweden. A population-based sample of adult participants without dementia at baseline aged 40 to 90 (N = 1,774). Olfactory performance using the Scandinavian Odor-Identification Test (SOIT) and self-reported olfactory function; several social, cognitive, and medical risk factors at baseline; and incident dementia during the following decade. Within the 10-year follow-up, 411 of 1,774 (23.2%) participants had died. In a Cox model, the association between higher SOIT score and lower mortality was significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.74 per point interval, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-0.77, P < .001). The effect was attenuated, but remained significant, after controlling for age, sex, education, and health-related and cognitive variables (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). The association between SOIT score and mortality was retained after controlling for dementia conversion before death (HR = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.87-0.97, P = .001). Similar results were obtained for self-reported olfactory dysfunction. Poor odor identification and poor self-reported olfactory function are associated with greater likelihood of future mortality. Dementia does not attenuate the association between olfactory loss and mortality, suggesting that olfactory loss might mark deteriorating health, irrespective of dementia. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  6. Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

    2014-09-01

    Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

  7. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    OpenAIRE

    Meager, Justin J.; Colin Limpus

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustaine...

  8. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB's model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men's, β=0.68; women's, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men's, β=0.12; women's, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. "Feels healthier with exercise" was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). "Not motivated to perform exercise" was the main barrier among men's intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly.

  9. Perception of exercise difficulty predicts weight regain in formerly overweight women

    OpenAIRE

    Brock, David W.; Chandler-Laney, Paula C.; Alvarez, Jessica A.; Gower, Barbara A.; Gaesser, Glenn A.; Hunter, Gary R.

    2009-01-01

    It has been previously reported that overweight and obese individuals perceive exercise as more difficult than their lean counterparts, and this difference may not be solely attributed to physiological differences. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in the perception of exercise difficulty during exercise, independent of concurrently measured physiological markers of exertion, are predictive of weight regain, after completion of a weight loss program. One-hundred ...

  10. Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qing-Bian Ma

    2017-01-01

    Conclusions: The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

  11. The impact of delirium on the prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boogaard, M.H.W.A. van den; Peters, S.A.; Hoeven, J.G. van der; Dagnelie, P.C.; Leffers, P.; Pickkers, P.; Schoonhoven, L.J.

    2010-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II

  12. The impact of delirium in the prediction of In-Hospital Mortality in Intensive Care patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Johannes van der Hoeven; Mark van den Boogaard; Sanne Peters; Pieter Leffers; Peter Pickkers; Pieter Dagnelie; Lisette Schoonhoven

    2010-01-01

    Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II model. The

  13. Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Landman, Gijs W. D.; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Groeneveld, Geert H.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.

    Background: C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients

  14. Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs : A validation study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

    2016-01-01

    Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month

  15. A new metric of inclusive fitness predicts the human mortality profile.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saul J Newman

    Full Text Available Biological species have evolved characteristic patterns of age-specific mortality across their life spans. If these mortality profiles are shaped by natural selection they should reflect underlying variation in the fitness effect of mortality with age. Direct fitness models, however, do not accurately predict the mortality profiles of many species. For several species, including humans, mortality rates vary considerably before and after reproductive ages, during life-stages when no variation in direct fitness is possible. Variation in mortality rates at these ages may reflect indirect effects of natural selection acting through kin. To test this possibility we developed a new two-variable measure of inclusive fitness, which we term the extended genomic output or EGO. Using EGO, we estimate the inclusive fitness effect of mortality at different ages in a small hunter-gatherer population with a typical human mortality profile. EGO in this population predicts 90% of the variation in age-specific mortality. This result represents the first empirical measurement of inclusive fitness of a trait in any species. It shows that the pattern of human survival can largely be explained by variation in the inclusive fitness cost of mortality at different ages. More generally, our approach can be used to estimate the inclusive fitness of any trait or genotype from population data on birth dates and relatedness.

  16. Heart rate variability predicts 30-day all-cause mortality in intensive ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HRV), has shown promise in predicting clinically important outcomes in the critical care setting; however, there is debate concerning its utility. ... Keywords: APACHE II, autonomic nervous system, critical care, heart rate variability, mortality ...

  17. Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels

    2013-01-01

    Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

  18. One- and 2-Year Mortality Prediction for Patients Starting Chronic Dialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikko Haapio

    2017-11-01

    Discussion: Mortality prediction algorithms could be more widely implemented into management of ESRD patients. The presented models are practical with only a limited number of variables and fairly good performance.

  19. Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.

    2011-01-01

    Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change

  20. Validated Risk Score for Predicting 6-Month Mortality in Infective Endocarditis

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Lawrence P.; Chu, Vivian H.; Peterson, Gail; Skoutelis, Athanasios; Lejko-Zupa, Tatjana; Bouza, Emilio; Tattevin, Pierre; Habib, Gilbert; Tan, Ren; Gonzalez, Javier; Altclas, Javier; Edathodu, Jameela; Fortes, Claudio Querido; Siciliano, Rinaldo Focaccia; Pachirat, Orathai

    2016-01-01

    International audience; BACKGROUND: Host factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6-month mortality in IE.METHODS AND RESULTS: Using a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]-Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000-2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6-month survival was developed by Cox propo...

  1. Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

    2013-11-01

    The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

  2. Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of esophageal cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Wen-Rui; Fang, Jia-Ying; Wu, Ku-Sheng; Shi, Xiao-Jun; Luo, Jia-Yi; Lin, Kun

    2014-01-01

    To analyze the mortality distribution of esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012, to forecast the mortality in the future five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of esophageal cancer. Mortality data for esophageal cancer in China from 1991 to 2012 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, sex and age differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the next five years in the future. In China, the incidence rate of esophageal cancer from 2007 and the mortality rate of esophageal cancer from 2008 increased yearly, with males at 8.72/105 being higher than females, and the countryside at 15.5/105 being higher than in the city. The mortality rate increased from age 45. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from southern to eastern China, and from northeast to central China. The incidence rate and the standardized mortality rate of esophageal cancer are rising. The regional disease control for esophageal cancer should be focused on eastern, central and northern regions China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men more than 45 years old. The mortality of esophageal cancer will rise in the next five years.

  3. High Exercise Capacity Attenuates the Risk of Early Mortality After a First Myocardial Infarction: The Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaya, Gabriel E; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Hung, Rupert K; Nasir, Khurram; Blumenthal, Roger S; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Keteyian, Steven J; Brawner, Clinton A; Qureshi, Waqas T; Blaha, Michael J

    2016-02-01

    To examine the effect of objectively measured exercise capacity (EC) on early mortality (EM) after a first myocardial infarction (MI). This retrospective cohort study included 2061 patients without a history of MI (mean age, 62±12 years; 38% [n=790] women; 56% [n=1153] white) who underwent clinical treadmill stress testing in the Henry Ford Health System from January 1, 1991, through May 31, 2009, and suffered MI during follow-up (MI event proportion, 3.4%; mean time from the exercise test to MI, 6.1±4.3 years). Exercise capacity was categorized on the basis of peak metabolic equivalents (METs) achieved: less than 6, 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and 12 or more METs. Early mortality was defined as all-cause mortality within 28, 90, or 365 days of MI. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the effect of EC on the risk of mortality at each time point post-MI adjusting for baseline demographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, medication use, indication for stress testing, and year of MI. The 28-day EM rate was 10.6% overall, and 13.9%, 10.7%, 6.9%, and 6.0% in the less than 6, 6 to 9, 10 to 11, and 12 or more METs categories, respectively (Pmortality across all time points (28 days: odds ratio [OR], 0.92; 95% CI, 0.87-0.98; P=.006; 90 days: OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.86-0.95; P<.001; 365 days: OR, 0.91; 95% CI, 0.87-0.94; P<.001). Higher baseline EC was independently associated with a lower risk of early death after a first MI. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Do parents' exercise habits predict 13-18-year-old adolescents' involvement in sport?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukys, Saulius; Majauskienė, Daiva; Cesnaitiene, Vida J; Karanauskiene, Diana

    2014-09-01

    This study examined links between parents' exercise habits and adolescents' participation in sports activities, considering the aspects of gender and age. It was hypothesized that regular exercise by both parents would be related to children's involvement in sport regardless of their gender and age. Moreover, it was hypothesized that children's sports activities would be more strongly related to their father's exercise activities. The study also examined the links between parents' exercise habits and children's motivation for sports. It was hypothesized that competition motives would be more important for children whose parents exercised regularly. The research sample included 2335 students from the seventh (n = 857), ninth (n = 960) and eleventh (n = 518) grades of various Lithuanian schools. The study used a questionnaire survey method, which revealed the links between parents' exercise habits and their children's participation in sport. Assessment of data for girls and boys showed that daughters' participation in sport could be predicted by both their fathers' and mothers' exercise habits, but sons' sports activities could be predicted only by the regular physical activities of their fathers. The assessment of children's sporting activities according to age revealed links between parental exercising and the engagement of older (15-16 years old), but not younger adolescents (13-14 years old). Analysis of sports motivation showed that competition motives were more important for boys than for girls. Fitness, well-being and appearance motives were more important for older adolescents (15-18 years old), while competition motives were more important for younger adolescents (13-14 years old). Research revealed the relationship between children's sport motives and fathers' exercise habits, while examination of mothers' exercise revealed no difference. Key pointsParental exercising significantly predicts adolescents' engagement in sport. Daughter's engagement in sport is

  5. Do Parents’ Exercise Habits Predict 13–18-Year-Old Adolescents’ Involvement in Sport?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sukys, Saulius; Majauskienė, Daiva; Cesnaitiene, Vida J.; Karanauskiene, Diana

    2014-01-01

    This study examined links between parents’ exercise habits and adolescents’ participation in sports activities, considering the aspects of gender and age. It was hypothesized that regular exercise by both parents would be related to children’s involvement in sport regardless of their gender and age. Moreover, it was hypothesized that children’s sports activities would be more strongly related to their father’s exercise activities. The study also examined the links between parents’ exercise habits and children’s motivation for sports. It was hypothesized that competition motives would be more important for children whose parents exercised regularly. The research sample included 2335 students from the seventh (n = 857), ninth (n = 960) and eleventh (n = 518) grades of various Lithuanian schools. The study used a questionnaire survey method, which revealed the links between parents’ exercise habits and their children’s participation in sport. Assessment of data for girls and boys showed that daughters’ participation in sport could be predicted by both their fathers’ and mothers’ exercise habits, but sons’ sports activities could be predicted only by the regular physical activities of their fathers. The assessment of children’s sporting activities according to age revealed links between parental exercising and the engagement of older (15–16 years old), but not younger adolescents (13–14 years old). Analysis of sports motivation showed that competition motives were more important for boys than for girls. Fitness, well-being and appearance motives were more important for older adolescents (15–18 years old), while competition motives were more important for younger adolescents (13–14 years old). Research revealed the relationship between children’s sport motives and fathers’ exercise habits, while examination of mothers’ exercise revealed no difference. Key points Parental exercising significantly predicts adolescents

  6. Preoperative hypernatremia predicts increased perioperative morbidity and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Alexander A; McAlister, Finlay A; Finlayson, Samuel R G; Bates, David W

    2013-10-01

    The prognostic implications of preoperative hypernatremia are unknown. We sought to determine whether preoperative hypernatremia is a predictor of 30-day perioperative morbidity and mortality. We conducted a cohort study using the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program and identified 908,869 adult patients undergoing major surgery from approximately 300 hospitals from the years 2005 to 2010. We followed the patients for 30-day perioperative outcomes, which included death, major coronary events, wound infections, pneumonia, and venous thromboembolism. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of 30-day perioperative outcomes. The 20,029 patients (2.2%) with preoperative hypernatremia (>144 mmol/L) were compared with the 888,840 patients with a normal baseline sodium (135-144 mmol/L). Hypernatremia was associated with a higher odds for 30-day mortality (5.2% vs 1.3%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.56), and this finding was consistent in all subgroups. The odds increased according to the severity of hypernatremia (P 148 mmol/L] categories). Furthermore, hypernatremia was associated with a greater odds for perioperative major coronary events (1.6% vs 0.7%; aOR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.03-1.32), pneumonia (3.4% vs 1.5%; aOR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.13-1.34), and venous thromboembolism (1.8% vs 0.9%; OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.14-1.42). Preoperative hypernatremia is associated with increased perioperative 30-day morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justin J Meager

    Full Text Available Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline. Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months and low air temperature (3 months. At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality.

  8. Mortality of inshore marine mammals in eastern Australia is predicted by freshwater discharge and air temperature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meager, Justin J; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality.

  9. Mortality of Inshore Marine Mammals in Eastern Australia Is Predicted by Freshwater Discharge and Air Temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meager, Justin J.; Limpus, Colin

    2014-01-01

    Understanding environmental and climatic drivers of natural mortality of marine mammals is critical for managing populations effectively and for predicting responses to climate change. Here we use a 17-year dataset to demonstrate a clear relationship between environmental forcing and natural mortality of inshore marine mammals across a subtropical-tropical coastline spanning a latitudinal gradient of 13° (>2000 km of coastline). Peak mortality of inshore dolphins and dugongs followed sustained periods of elevated freshwater discharge (9 months) and low air temperature (3 months). At a regional scale, these results translated into a strong relationship between annual mortality and an index of El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The number of cyclones crossing the coastline had a comparatively weak effect on inshore marine mammal mortality, and only in the tropics. Natural mortality of offshore/migratory cetaceans was not predicted by freshwater discharge, but was related to lagged air temperature. These results represent the first quantitative link between environmental forcing and marine mammal mortality in the tropics, and form the basis of a predictive tool for managers to prepare responses to periods of elevated marine mammal mortality. PMID:24740149

  10. Lung Injury Prediction Score Is Useful in Predicting Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome and Mortality in Surgical Critical Care Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zachary M. Bauman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Lung injury prediction score (LIPS is valuable for early recognition of ventilated patients at high risk for developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. This study analyzes the value of LIPS in predicting ARDS and mortality among ventilated surgical patients. Methods. IRB approved, prospective observational study including all ventilated patients admitted to the surgical intensive care unit at a single tertiary center over 6 months. ARDS was defined using the Berlin criteria. LIPS were calculated for all patients and analyzed. Logistic regression models evaluated the ability of LIPS to predict development of ARDS and mortality. A receiver operator characteristic (ROC curve demonstrated the optimal LIPS value to statistically predict development of ARDS. Results. 268 ventilated patients were observed; 141 developed ARDS and 127 did not. The average LIPS for patients who developed ARDS was 8.8±2.8 versus 5.4±2.8 for those who did not (p<0.001. An ROC area under the curve of 0.79 demonstrates LIPS is statistically powerful for predicting ARDS development. Furthermore, for every 1-unit increase in LIPS, the odds of developing ARDS increase by 1.50 (p<0.001 and odds of ICU mortality increase by 1.22 (p<0.001. Conclusion. LIPS is reliable for predicting development of ARDS and predicting mortality in critically ill surgical patients.

  11. Sweat Rate Prediction Equations for Outdoor Exercise with Transient Solar Radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    clothing, aerobic fitness, and progressive dehydration . J Therm Biol 22: 331–342, 1997. 25. Matthew WT, Santee WR, Berglund LG. Solar Load Inputs for...code) Sweat rate prediction equations for outdoor exercise with transient solar radiation Richard R. Gonzalez,1 Samuel N. Cheuvront,2 Brett R. Ely,2...Moran DS, Hadid A, Endrusick TL, Sawka MN. Sweat rate prediction equations for outdoor exercise with transient solar radiation. J Appl Phys- iol 112

  12. Prediction method for the volume of the excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC) following supramaximal exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stefanova, D

    2000-01-01

    Short (up to 60 s) supramaximal (about 400 W on the average) exercise is accompanied by specific biochemical processes in the working muscles and by a general increase in energy metabolism. Outwardly, this is manifested by an excess post-exercise oxygen consumption (EPOC). Since its actual measurement is time consuming and associated sometimes with difficulties, we propose a fixed 3-min test for EPOC prediction. The measured volumes of oxygen consumption are related to the corresponding periods in a coordinate system as reciprocal values. The linear equation, whose parameters were calculated by the method of least squares or were determined graphically, provided for prediction of the EPOC volume with satisfactory accuracy and precision. The obtained increase of the predicted values over the actually measured values was below 5%, and the correlation coefficient r = 0.98. Other parameters of the recovery process were also calculated, such as tau (half-time) of EPOC and the rate constant k.

  13. Exercises

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... exercising. Count out loud as you do the exercises. View Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Home Techniques to ... Intimacy Importance of Being Together Body Changes with Age Communicating with Your Partner Exercise and Sexual Activity Less Strenuous Positions for Sexual ...

  14. Right and left heart dysfunction predict mortality in pulmonary hypertension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henein, Michael Y; Grönlund, Christer; Tossavainen, Erik; Söderberg, Stefan; Gonzalez, Manuel; Lindqvist, Per

    2017-01-01

    In pulmonary hypertension (PH), the right heart dysfunction is a strong predictor of adverse clinical outcome, while the role of the left heart is not fully determined. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of mortality in precapillary PH including measures of both right and left heart function. We studied 34 patients (mean age 64 ± 13, range 31-82 years, 24 females) with precapillary PH, all of whom underwent detailed Doppler echocardiographic examination of the right and left heart function using conventional and speckle-tracking echocardiography. Patients were followed up for up to 8 years (mean 4·2 ± 1·9 years). At follow-up, 16 patients survived. Left ventricular (LV) filling time (P = 0·007), pulmonary artery acceleration time (P = 0·009), right atrial pressure (RAP) (P0·65) and carried the highest risk for mortality (Pright heart dysfunction including atrial structure and function disturbances. While an interaction pattern is observed, it needs to be confirmed in a larger cohort. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Predicting Mortality of Patients With Sepsis: A Comparison of APACHE II and APACHE III Scoring Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadaka, Farid; EthmaneAbouElMaali, Cheikh; Cytron, Margaret A; Fowler, Kimberly; Javaux, Victoria M; O'Brien, Jacklyn

    2017-11-01

    Acute Physiology, Age and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II and III scores were developed in 1985 and 1991, respectively, and are used mainly for critically ill patients of all disease categories admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). They differ in how chronic health status is assessed, in the number of physiologic variables included (12 vs. 17), and in the total score. These two scoring systems have not been compared in predicting hospital mortality in patients with sepsis. We retrospectively identified all septic patients admitted to our 54-bed medical-surgical ICU between June 2009 and February 2014 using the APACHE outcomes database. We calculated correlation coefficients for APACHE II and APACHE III scores in predicting hospital mortality. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves were also used to assess the mortality predictions. We identified a total of 2,054 septic patients. Average APACHE II score was 19 ± 7, and average APACHE III score was 68 ± 28. ICU mortality was 11.8% and hospital mortality was 18.3%. Both APACHE II (r = 0.41) and APACHE III scores (r = 0.44) had good correlations with hospital mortality. There was no statistically significant difference between the two correlations (P = 0.1). ROC area under the curve (AUC) was 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78 - 0.82) for APACHE II, and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.81 - 0.85) for APACHE III, suggesting that both scores have very good discriminative powers for predicting hospital mortality. This study shows that both APACHE II and APACHE III scores in septic patients were very strong predictors of hospital mortality. APACHE II was as good as APACHE III in predicting hospital mortality in septic patients.

  16. O-POSSUM score predicts morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing hip fracture surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blay-Domínguez, Elena; Lajara-Marco, Francisco; Bernáldez-Silvetti, Pablo Federico; Veracruz-Gálvez, Eva María; Muela-Pérez, Beatriz; Palazón-Banegas, Miguel Ángel; Salinas-Gilabert, José Eduardo; Lozano-Requena, Juan Antonio

    2017-11-27

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the O-POSSUM score capacity to predict the morbidity and mortality of patients undergoing hip fracture surgery. We retrospectively reviewed the clinical records of patients older than 65years old, operated on for hip fractures between January 2012 and December 2013. Of 229 patients, the mean age was 82.3years and 170 were women. We collected comorbidities, type of surgery, and expected morbidity and mortality O-POSSUM values. After a minimum follow up of one year, 38 deaths were reported and 77 patients had complications. The expected mortality according to the O-POSSUM was 35 patients and expected morbidity 132. By comparing the observed results with those predicted, the O-POSSUM scale is reliable in predicting mortality and overestimates morbidity. Copyright © 2017 SECOT. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  17. A novel mortality prediction model for the current population in an adult intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fika, Sofia; Nanas, Serafeim; Baltopoulos, Georgios; Charitidou, Efstratia; Myrianthefs, Pavlos

    The accurate and reliable mortality prediction is very useful, in critical care medicine. There are various new variables proposed in the literature that could potentially increase the predictive ability for death in ICU of the new predictive scoring model. To develop and validate a new intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction model, using data that are routinely collected during the first 24 h of ICU admission, and compare its performance to the most widely used conventional scoring systems. Prospective observational study in a medical/surgical, multidisciplinary ICU, using multivariate logistic regression modeling. The new model was developed using data from a medical record review of 400 adult intensive care unit patients and was validated on a separate sample of 36 patients, to accurately predict mortality in ICU. The new model is simple, flexible and shows improved performance (ROC AUC = 0.85, SMR = 1.25), compared to the conventional scoring models (APACHE II: AUC = 0.76, SMR = 2.50, SAPS III: AUC = 0.76, SMR = 1.50), as well as higher predictive capability regarding ICU mortality (predicted mortality: 41.63 ± 31.61, observed mortality: 41.67%). The newly developed model is a quite simple risk-adjusted outcome prediction tool based on 12 routinely collected demographic and clinical variables obtained from the medical record data. It appears to be a reliable predictor of ICU mortality and is proposed for further investigation aiming at its evaluation, validation and applicability to other ICUs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

    2017-12-01

    Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

  19. Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

    2015-08-01

    Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  20. Overweight predicts poorer exercise capacity in congenital heart disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuehl, Karen; Tucker, Alicia; Khan, Munziba; Goldberg, Paula; Anne Greene, E; Smith, Megan

    2015-12-07

    Overweight (OW) and obesity (OB) are endemic in the United States and affect adolescents and adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD). Defining the burden of excess weight on the cardiovascular system in ACHD is the goal of this study. Limitation of exercise capacity due to overweight or obesity might be reversible with weight loss and improve quality of life for ACHD adults. Exercise tests performed using a Bruce protocol and measurement of maximum oxygen consumption were retrospectively reviewed on 418 CHD patients. OW and OB were defined as the 85-95 or > 95 percentile respectively for age and gender or by adult criteria. Severity of CHD was assigned based on criteria published in standard guidelines. 63 patients had mild, 198 moderate, and 157 severe heart disease. Each ACHD group was 32 to 34% OW or OB. Measured exercise time (ET) of CHD patients with moderate or severe heart disease was less than that of controls in each weight categories. However, OB or OW people have shorter ET than their normal weight peers with CHD. Multiple regression using ET as the dependent variable finds that female sex, relative BMI, and VE/VCO2 at peak exercise are all associated with lesser ET with high significance. Peak heart rate is associated with greater ET, with borderline significance. Severity of heart disease is not independently associated with ET. OW and OB are strongly associated with reduced ET in persons with congenital heart disease. Losing weight may improve exercise capacity in ACHD.

  1. Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beck, Mette Kristina; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach

    2016-01-01

    Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease histo...

  2. A simple score for predicting mortality in patients with pneumatosis intestinalis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ho-Su, E-mail: 810818hs@hanmail.net [Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Young-Whan, E-mail: 9169cho@hanmail.net [Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Kyung-Jo, E-mail: capsulendos@gmail.com [Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Jong Seok, E-mail: ljs@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Seung Soo, E-mail: seungsoolee@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yang, Suk-Kyun, E-mail: sky@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Gastroenterology, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2014-04-15

    Background and aim: This study was conducted to identify simple computerized tomography (CT) and clinical predictors of mortality in patients with pneumatosis intestinalis (PI). Thus, the clinical characteristics and outcomes of PI were assessed and the predictors of mortality were identified. Methods: The medical records of 123 patients with PI were reviewed retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression models were constructed to determine independent predictors of mortality. These data were used to develop a simple score that would predict mortality on the first and seventh day after diagnosis. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 62 (range, 20–91) years. The most common cause of PI was mesenteric vascular ischemia (n = 43, 35.0%). Twenty-nine (23.6%) disease-related deaths occurred during the index admission. Both signs of peritoneal irritation on physical examination and decreased or absent enhancement of the bowel wall were associated with increased mortality. If both factors were absent, the in-hospital mortalities on both the first and seventh days after the diagnosis of PI were less than 5%. However, if both factors were present, the in-hospital mortality was 57% on the first day and 59% on the seventh day. Conclusions: A simple and novel risk score that predicts mortality in patients with PI was proposed. Patients with both peritoneal irritation and decreased or absent enhancement of bowel wall on CT should be observed vigilantly and early intervention should be instituted.

  3. Predicting mortality with biomarkers: a population-based prospective cohort study for elderly Costa Ricans

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosero-Bixby Luis

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about adult health and mortality relationships outside high-income nations, partly because few datasets have contained biomarker data in representative populations. Our objective is to determine the prognostic value of biomarkers with respect to total and cardiovascular mortality in an elderly population of a middle-income country, as well as the extent to which they mediate the effects of age and sex on mortality. Methods This is a prospective population-based study in a nationally representative sample of elderly Costa Ricans. Baseline interviews occurred mostly in 2005 and mortality follow-up went through December 2010. Sample size after excluding observations with missing values: 2,313 individuals and 564 deaths. Main outcome: prospective death rate ratios for 22 baseline biomarkers, which were estimated with hazard regression models. Results Biomarkers significantly predict future death above and beyond demographic and self-reported health conditions. The studied biomarkers account for almost half of the effect of age on mortality. However, the sex gap in mortality became several times wider after controlling for biomarkers. The most powerful predictors were simple physical tests: handgrip strength, pulmonary peak flow, and walking speed. Three blood tests also predicted prospective mortality: C-reactive protein (CRP, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, and dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS. Strikingly, high blood pressure (BP and high total cholesterol showed little or no predictive power. Anthropometric measures also failed to show significant mortality effects. Conclusions This study adds to the growing evidence that blood markers for CRP, HbA1c, and DHEAS, along with organ-specific functional reserve indicators (handgrip, walking speed, and pulmonary peak flow, are valuable tools for identifying vulnerable elderly. The results also highlight the need to better understand an anomaly noted previously in

  4. Categorized diagnoses and procedure records in an administrative database improved mortality prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, Hayato; Matsui, Hiroki; Sasabuchi, Yusuke; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Yasunaga, Hideo

    2015-09-01

    Comorbidity measures are widely used in administrative databases to predict mortality. The Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination database is unique in that secondary diagnoses are recorded into subcategories, and procedures are precisely recorded. We investigated the influence of these features on the performance of mortality prediction models. We obtained data of adult patients with main diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, acute cerebrovascular disease, gastrointestinal hemorrhage, pneumonia, or septicemia during a 1-year period. Multiple models were constructed representing different subcategories from which Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidities were extracted. Prevalence of comorbidities and C statistics of logistic regression models predicting in-hospital mortality was compared. Associations between four procedures (computed tomography, oxygen administration, urinary catheter, and vasopressors) and mortality were also evaluated. C statistics of the model using all secondary diagnoses (Charlson: 0.717; Elixhauser: 0.762) were greater than those using a limited subcategory to strictly specify comorbidities (Charlson: 0.708; Elixhauser: 0.744). However, misidentification of complications and main diagnoses as comorbidities was observed in the all-diagnosis model. The four procedures were associated with mortality. Subcategorized diagnoses allowed correct identification of comorbidities and procedures predicted mortality. Incorporation of these two features should be considered for other administrative databases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Mortality Prediction in Patients Undergoing Non-Invasive Ventilation in Intermediate Care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Martinez-Urbistondo

    Full Text Available Intermediate Care Units (ImCU have become an alternative scenario to perform Non-Invasive Ventilation (NIV. The limited number of prognostic studies in this population support the need of mortality prediction evaluation in this context.The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II and 3 in patients undergoing NIV in an ImCU. Additionally, we searched for new variables that could be useful to customize these scores, in order to improve mortality prediction.Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU who received NIV. The SAPS II and 3 scores with their respective predicted mortality rates were calculated. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC and with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the models, respectively. Binary logistic regression was used to identify new variables to customize the scores for mortality prediction in this setting.The study included 241 patients consecutively admitted to an ImCU staffed by hospitalists from April 2006 to December 2013.The observed in-hospital mortality was 32.4% resulting in a Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR of 1.35 for SAPS II and 0.68 for SAPS 3. Mortality discrimination based on the AUC was 0.73 for SAPS II and 0.69 for SAPS 3. Customized models including immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD, acute pulmonary edema (APE, lactic acid, pCO2 and haemoglobin levels showed better discrimination than old scores with similar calibration power.These results suggest that SAPS II and 3 should be customized with additional patient-risk factors to improve mortality prediction in patients undergoing NIV in intermediate care.

  6. Mortality prediction using TRISS methodology in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chico-Fernández, M; Llompart-Pou, J A; Sánchez-Casado, M; Alberdi-Odriozola, F; Guerrero-López, F; Mayor-García, M D; Egea-Guerrero, J J; Fernández-Ortega, J F; Bueno-González, A; González-Robledo, J; Servià-Goixart, L; Roldán-Ramírez, J; Ballesteros-Sanz, M Á; Tejerina-Alvarez, E; Pino-Sánchez, F I; Homar-Ramírez, J

    2016-10-01

    To validate Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology as an auditing tool in the Spanish ICU Trauma Registry (RETRAUCI). A prospective, multicenter registry evaluation was carried out. Thirteen Spanish Intensive Care Units (ICUs). Individuals with traumatic disease and available data admitted to the participating ICUs. Predicted mortality using TRISS methodology was compared with that observed in the pilot phase of the RETRAUCI from November 2012 to January 2015. Discrimination was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the corresponding areas under the curves (AUCs) (95% CI), with calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness-of-fit test. A value of p<0.05 was considered significant. Predicted and observed mortality. A total of 1405 patients were analyzed. The observed mortality rate was 18% (253 patients), while the predicted mortality rate was 16.9%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.889 (95% CI: 0.867-0.911). Patients with blunt trauma (n=1305) had an area under the ROC curve of 0.887 (95% CI: 0.864-0.910), and those with penetrating trauma (n=100) presented an area under the curve of 0.919 (95% CI: 0.859-0.979). In the global sample, the HL test yielded a value of 25.38 (p=0.001): 27.35 (p<0.0001) in blunt trauma and 5.91 (p=0.658) in penetrating trauma. TRISS methodology underestimated mortality in patients with low predicted mortality and overestimated mortality in patients with high predicted mortality. TRISS methodology in the evaluation of severe trauma in Spanish ICUs showed good discrimination, with inadequate calibration - particularly in blunt trauma. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  7. Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Kellett, J

    2012-09-01

    Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI).

  8. Predicting post-fire tree mortality for 12 western US conifers using the First-Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharon Hood; Duncan Lutes

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of fire-caused tree mortality is critical for making sound land management decisions such as developing burning prescriptions and post-fire management guidelines. To improve efforts to predict post-fire tree mortality, we developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 Western conifer species - white fir (Abies concolor [Gord. &...

  9. Increased mortality in patients with severe COPD associated with high-intensity exercise: a preliminary cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schaadt L

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Lone Schaadt,1,2 Robin Christensen,2 Lars Erik Kristensen,2 Marius Henriksen1,21Department of Physio- and Occupational Therapy, 2The Parker Institute, Copenhagen University Hospital Bispebjerg-Frederiksberg, Copenhagen, DenmarkIntroduction: Intensity of exercise is believed to be a key determinant of response to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD rehabilitation. We hypothesized that a higher intensity of exercise, in combination with physiotherapist-led instructions and education in management of breathlessness, would lead to better self-management, possibly delaying calls to the emergency service and preventing hospitalization.Objective: We aimed to test this hypothesis in a subsequent randomized trial, and in order to test study processes and estimate hospitalization rates, we did a small preliminary prospective cohort study on severe COPD patients referred to outpatient rehabilitation.Methods: In 2013, four rehabilitation courses were scheduled (spring, summer, autumn, and winter each lasting 8 weeks and including eight to ten patients. This preliminary study was designed as a controlled cohort study. The bi-weekly exercise sessions in the spring and autumn courses included a high-intensity walking exercise at 95% of estimated VO2 max for as long as possible. The other two rehabilitation courses included the usual walking exercise intensity (85% of estimated VO2 max. Hospitalization rates were assessed from the participants’ medical records in an 18-month period.Results: We were able to enroll 31 patients in total (15 in the high-intensity exercise group and 16 in regular intensity. There were no group differences in the hospitalization rates. However, during review of the medical records, we observed a striking mortality rate among participants who had attended the high-intensity rehabilitation courses (five deaths compared to the standard rehabilitation (zero deaths. Four of the five deaths were COPD exacerbations. Fisher

  10. Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nathan G.; Williams, A.P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, Sanna; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.J.; Mackay, D.S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, Jean-Christophe; Allen, Craig D.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J.D.; Breshears, D.D.; Rauscher, Sara A.; Koven, C.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April–August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted ≥50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

  11. Predicting of mortality in patients with intracrani al hemorrhage: A review article

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzad Rahmani

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Stroke is one of the important and common diseases, which can lead to permanent disability or even death to people. Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH is a type of stroke that is associated with high mortality despite improved diagnostic and treatment methods, as well as the mortality rate remains high. Methods: In the present review article, reputable internet databases since 2000 were analyzed. Studies that discussed the predicting mortality of ICH were included in this review. Results: For predicting the mortality rates in patients with primary ICH, physicians use several methods such as level of consciousness, bleeding volume and multiple rating systems. In this review, we introduce three scoring system of ICH in patients with ICH. Conclusion: Perhaps its cut-off point of these three score systems were different in different societies according to conditions and facilities therefore it is needed to review these scores and record their results in different societies.

  12. Factors Influencing the Predictive Power of Models for Predicting Mortality and/or Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Heart Failure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

    2014-01-01

    The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure

  13. The predictive value of fatigue for nonfatal ischemic heart disease and all-cause mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekmann, Anette; Osler, Merete; Avlund, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether fatigue predicts nonfatal ischemic heart disease (IHD) and all-cause mortality in middle-aged men. Methods The study population consisted of 5216 middle-aged men born in the Copenhagen metropolitan area in 1953. At baseline, men free of angina pectoris and previou...... is a potential risk indicator for IHD and mortality. Further research is needed to establish the role of smoking and other life-style characteristics....

  14. Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

    OpenAIRE

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

  15. Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link,...... chronic diseases and mortality. A short, valid MMSE subscale, which was a powerful predictor of mortality especially among men, is attractive for research and clinical practice......., as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...... long intervals. The association persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, Body Mass Index, mobility, and comorbidity and was unaffected by self-reported specific chronic diseases in both men and women. In addition, disease related risk of mortality was substantially reduced...

  16. Geriatric nutritional risk index accurately predicts cardiovascular mortality in incident hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ito, Yasuhiko; Ishii, Hideki; Aoyama, Toru; Kamoi, Daisuke; Kasuga, Hirotake; Yasuda, Kaoru; Maruyama, Shoichi; Matsuo, Seiichi; Murohara, Toyoaki; Yuzawa, Yukio

    2014-07-01

    Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death in end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients. Protein-energy wasting (PEW) or malnutrition is common in this population, and is associated with increasing risk of mortality. The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) has been developed as a tool to assess the nutritional risk, and is associated with mortality not only in elderly patients but also in ESRD patients. However, whether the GNRI could predict the mortality due to CVD remains unclear in this population. We investigated the prognostic value of GNRI at initiation of hemodialysis (HD) therapy for CVD mortality in a large cohort of ESRD patients. Serum albumin, body weight, and height for calculating GNRI were measured in 1568 ESRD patients. Thereafter, the patients were divided into quartiles according to GNRI levels [quartile 1 (Q1): 97.3], and were followed up for up to 10 years. GNRI levels independently correlated with serum C-reactive-protein levels (β = -0.126, p index was also greater in an established CVD risk model with GNRI (0.749) compared to that with albumin (0.730), body mass index (0.732), and alone (0.710). Similar results were observed for all-cause mortality. GNRI at initiation of HD therapy could predict CVD mortality with incremental value of the predictability compared to serum albumin and body mass index in ESRD patients. Copyright © 2013 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Red cell distribution width in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Hong-Lin; Ni, Song-Shi

    2017-02-01

    The aim of the study was to investigate red cell distribution width (RDW) in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A single-center, retrospective study design was used between January 1, 2014, and February 1, 2016. The primary end point was 30-day mortality after admission. The RDW predicting value was assessed by receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the curve. A total of 309 patients with PE were included. The 30-day mortality was 14.9% (46/309). The mean RDW level was 13.9%±0.6% (range, 10.7%-21.9%) at admission. The 30-day mortality was higher in the high-RDW-level group compared with the normal-RDW-level group (12.5% vs 23.5%, χ2=5.140, P=.023), with an odds ratio of 2.164 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.019-4.450). Logistic regression showed that presence of shock, RDW level, and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI) were independent risk factors for 30-day mortality in patients with PE. After adjustment by these risk factors, the adjusted odds ratio was 1.439 (95% CI, 1.024-2.116). The area under the curve for RDW predicting the 30-day mortality was 0.6646 (95% CI, 0.5585-0.7518). The cutoff was 16%. The Youden index for RDW and sPESI was 0.400 and 0.453, respectively. When adding RDW into sPESI, the modified sPESI showed highest prediction accuracy, with Youden index 0.499. Our results suggested that the RDW is a simple and useful indicator in predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE. However, this conclusion showed be confirmed by prospective study with large sample. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Do Parents’ Exercise Habits Predict 13–18-Year-Old Adolescents’ Involvement in Sport?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saulius Sukys, Daiva Majauskienė, Vida J. Cesnaitiene, Diana Karanauskiene

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study examined links between parents’ exercise habits and adolescents’ participation in sports activities, considering the aspects of gender and age. It was hypothesized that regular exercise by both parents would be related to children’s involvement in sport regardless of their gender and age. Moreover, it was hypothesized that children’s sports activities would be more strongly related to their father’s exercise activities. The study also examined the links between parents’ exercise habits and children’s motivation for sports. It was hypothesized that competition motives would be more important for children whose parents exercised regularly. The research sample included 2335 students from the seventh (n = 857, ninth (n = 960 and eleventh (n = 518 grades of various Lithuanian schools. The study used a questionnaire survey method, which revealed the links between parents’ exercise habits and their children’s participation in sport. Assessment of data for girls and boys showed that daughters’ participation in sport could be predicted by both their fathers’ and mothers’ exercise habits, but sons’ sports activities could be predicted only by the regular physical activities of their fathers. The assessment of children’s sporting activities according to age revealed links between parental exercising and the engagement of older (15–16 years old, but not younger adolescents (13–14 years old. Analysis of sports motivation showed that competition motives were more important for boys than for girls. Fitness, well-being and appearance motives were more important for older adolescents (15–18 years old, while competition motives were more important for younger adolescents (13–14 years old. Research revealed the relationship between children’s sport motives and fathers’ exercise habits, while examination of mothers’ exercise revealed no difference.

  19. The predictive value of arterial and valvular calcification for mortality and cardiovascular events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nicoll, Rachel; Henein, Michael Y

    2014-06-01

    A review of the predictive ability of arterial and valvular calcification has shown an additive effect of calcification in more than 1 location in predicting mortality and coronary heart disease, with mitral annual calcification being a particularly strong predictor. In individual arteries and valves there is a clear association between calcification presence, extent and progression and future cardiovascular events and mortality in asymptomatic, symptomatic and high risk patients, although adjustment for calcification in other arterial beds generally renders associations non-significant. Furthermore, in acute coronary syndrome, culprit plaque is normally not calcified. This would tend to reduce the validity of calcification as a predictor and suggest that the association with cardiovascular events and mortality may not be causal. The association with stroke is less clear; carotid and intracranial artery calcification show little predictive ability, with symptomatic plaques tending to be uncalcified.

  20. The association of clinical indication for exercise stress testing with all-cause mortality: the FIT Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joonseok; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Juraschek, Stephen P; Brawner, Clinton; Keteyian, Steve J; Nasir, Khurram; Dardari, Zeina A; Blumenthal, Roger S; Blaha, Michael J

    2016-04-01

    We hypothesized that the indication for stress testing provided by the referring physician would be an independent predictor of all-cause mortality. We studied 48,914 patients from The Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project (The FIT Project) without known congestive heart failure who were referred for a clinical treadmill stress test and followed for 11 ±4.7 years. The reason for stress test referral was abstracted from the clinical test order, and should be considered the primary concerning symptom or indication as stated by the ordering clinician. Hierarchical multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression was performed, after controlling for potential confounders including demographics, risk factors, and medication use as well as additional adjustment for exercise capacity in the final model. A total of 67% of the patients were referred for chest pain, 12% for shortness of breath (SOB), 4% for palpitations, 3% for pre-operative evaluation, 6% for abnormal prior testing, and 7% for risk factors only. There were 6,211 total deaths during follow-up. Compared to chest pain, those referred for palpitations (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.60-0.86) and risk factors only (HR = 0.72, 95% CI: 0.63-0.82) had a lower risk of all-cause mortality, whereas those referred for SOB (HR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.07-1.23) and pre-operative evaluation (HR = 2.11, 95% CI: 1.94-2.30) had an increased risk. In subgroup analysis, referral for palpitations was protective only in those without coronary artery disease (CAD) (HR = 0.75, 95% CI: 0.62-0.90), while SOB increased mortality risk only in those with established CAD (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.10-1.44). The indication for stress testing is an independent predictor of mortality, showing an interaction with CAD status. Importantly, SOB may be associated with higher mortality risk than chest pain, particularly in patients with CAD.

  1. Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

    2015-01-01

    We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Pressure-Flow During Exercise Catheterization Predicts Survival in Pulmonary Hypertension.

    OpenAIRE

    Hasler Elisabeth; Müller-Mottet Séverine; Furian Michael; Saxer Stéphanie; Huber Lars Christian; Maggiorini Marco; Speich Rudolf; Bloch Konrad Ernst; Ulrich Silvia

    2016-01-01

    Pulmonary hypertension manifests with impaired exercise capacity. Our aim was to investigate whether the mean pulmonary arterial pressure to cardiac output relationship (mPAP/CO) predicts transplant free survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). Hemodynamic data according to right heart catheterization in patients with PAH and CTEPH at rest and during supine incremental cycle exercise were analyzed. Tr...

  3. Intensive care unit admission parameters improve the accuracy of operative mortality predictive models in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranucci, Marco; Ballotta, Andrea; Castelvecchio, Serenella; Baryshnikova, Ekaterina; Brozzi, Simonetta; Boncilli, Alessandra

    2010-10-21

    Operative mortality risk in cardiac surgery is usually assessed using preoperative risk models. However, intraoperative factors may change the risk profile of the patients, and parameters at the admission in the intensive care unit may be relevant in determining the operative mortality. This study investigates the association between a number of parameters at the admission in the intensive care unit and the operative mortality, and verifies the hypothesis that including these parameters into the preoperative risk models may increase the accuracy of prediction of the operative mortality. 929 adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery were admitted to the study. The preoperative risk profile was assessed using the logistic EuroSCORE and the ACEF score. A number of parameters recorded at the admission in the intensive care unit were explored for univariate and multivariable association with the operative mortality. A heart rate higher than 120 beats per minute and a blood lactate value higher than 4 mmol/L at the admission in the intensive care unit were independent predictors of operative mortality, with odds ratio of 6.7 and 13.4 respectively. Including these parameters into the logistic EuroSCORE and the ACEF score increased their accuracy (area under the curve 0.85 to 0.88 for the logistic EuroSCORE and 0.81 to 0.86 for the ACEF score). A double-stage assessment of operative mortality risk provides a higher accuracy of the prediction. Elevated blood lactates and tachycardia reflect a condition of inadequate cardiac output. Their inclusion in the assessment of the severity of the clinical conditions after cardiac surgery may offer a useful tool to introduce more sophisticated hemodynamic monitoring techniques. Comparison between the predicted operative mortality risk before and after the operation may offer an assessment of the operative performance.

  4. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and elevated serum creatinine predict mortality in geriatric patients with fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Min-Hsien; Chu, Feng-Yuan; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Guo, How-Ran; Vong, Si-Chon; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

    2015-07-01

    The geriatric population (aged ≥65 years) accounts for 12-24% of all emergency department (ED) visits. Of them, 10% have a fever, 70-90% will be admitted and 7-10% of will die within a month. Therefore, mortality prediction and appropriate disposition after ED treatment are of great concern for geriatric patients with fever. We tried to identify independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever, and combine these predictors to predict their mortality. We enrolled consecutive geriatric patients visiting the ED between 1 June and 21 July 2010 with the following criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. We used 30-day mortality as the primary end-point. A total of 330 patients were enrolled. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and serum creatinine >2 mg/dL, but not age, were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 18.2% to 90.9%, 34.7% to 100%, 9.0% to 100% and 94.5% to 98.2%, respectively, depending on how many predictors there were. The 30-day mortality increased with the number of independent mortality predictors. With at least four predictors, 100% of the patients died within 30 days. With none of the predictors, just 1.8% died. These findings might help physicians make decisions about geriatric patients with fever. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

  5. Transverse strain predicts exercise capacity in systemic right ventricle patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Salvo, Giovanni; Pacileo, Giuseppe; Rea, Alessandra; Limongelli, Giuseppe; Baldini, Luca; D'Andrea, Antonello; D'Alto, Michele; Sarubbi, Berardo; Russo, Maria Giovanna; Calabrò, Raffaele

    2010-11-19

    Because transposition of great arteries (TGA) patients who underwent atrial switch repair (AS) remain asymptomatic for decades before development of symptomatic heart failure, there may be some clinical value to preclinical detection of ventricular dysfunction. Detection of systemic right ventricular (RV) dysfunction in patients who are asymptomatic may prompt early initiation of heart failure therapy and more frequent clinical follow-up. The objective of this study was to characterize longitudinal and transverse systolic function of the systemic RV using two-dimensional (2D) strain in patients with TGA after AS repair and to correlate these parameters with their exercise capacity. The study population consisted of 26 patients (20±6 years) with TGA after AS operation. Conventional echocardiography and bidimensional strain were performed on consecutive patients reporting to the out patient congenital heart disease clinic. Twenty-four healthy, age-matched individuals were used as control subjects. Analysis was performed on the non-systemic RVs of the control group. All the studied patients underwent treadmill exercise testing according to the Bruce II protocol. RV longitudinal 2D-strain in controls showed a base to apex gradient, while in patients was homogeneously reduced. Also RV transverse strain (i.e the radial deformation assessed by the apical 4 chamber view) showed a base to apex gradient in controls, while in patients was significantly increased in the mid and apical segments. In the systemic RV free wall, transverse strain was greater than longitudinal strain (pexercise capacity (page, degree of tricuspid regurgitation, TAPSE, RV area fractional change, RV visually estimated ejection fraction, RV global longitudinal strain and RV global transverse strain) the best predictor of exercise capacity in AS-TGA patients was transverse 2D strain (pexercise capacity of these patients. In the follow up of AS-TGA patients the monitoring of RV transverse myocardial

  6. mortality

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    and Department of Pediatric Surgery, Aseer Central Hospital', Abha, Saudi Arabia. E-mail: taam .... Esophageal atresia with tracheoesophageal fistula and early postoperative mortality - T. A.Al-Malki et al further supported by the presence .... nal (e.g. premature rupture of membranes) or neonatal fac- tors (e.g. impaired host ...

  7. Assessment of Euroscore and SAPS III as hospital mortality predicted in cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateos-Pañero, B; Sánchez-Casado, M; Castaño-Moreira, B; Paredes-Astillero, I; López-Almodóvar, L F; Bustos-Molina, F

    2017-05-01

    To perform an external validation of Euroscore I, Euroscore II and SAPS III. Retrospective cohort study over three years on all adult patients who underwent cardiac surgery. We reviewed the clinical data, following the patient until outcome or discharge from hospital (dead, alive). We computed the predicted mortality by Euroscore I (EI), II (EII) and SAPS III. The model validation was assessed by discrimination: area under curve ROC; and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test). 866 patients were included. 62.5% of them male, with a median age of 69 years, 6.1% died during hospitalization. Predicted mortality: E I 7.94%, E II 3.54, SAPS III 12.1%. Area under curve (95% IC): E I 0.862 (0.812-0.912); E II 0.861 (0.806-0.915); SAPS III 0.692 (0.601-0.784). Hosmer-Lemeshow test: E I 14.0046 (P=.08164); E II 33.67 (P=.00004660); SAPS III 11.57 (P=.171). EII had good discrimination, but the calibration was not good with predicted mortality lower than the real mortality. E I showed the best discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to overestimate the mortality. SAPS III showed poor discrimination with good calibration and a tendency to greatly overestimate the predicted mortality. We saw no improvement in the predictive performance of EII over I and we reject the use of SAPS III in this kind of patient. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  8. Apgar Score Components at 5 Minutes: Risks and Prediction of Neonatal Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cnattingius, Sven; Norman, Mikael; Granath, Fredrik; Petersson, Gunnar; Stephansson, Olof; Frisell, Thomas

    2017-07-01

    The Apgar score consists of five components: heart rate, respiratory effort, muscle tone, reflex irritability, and colour. Although the Apgar score has been used for 60 years, the specific contribution of the Apgar score components with respect to risks and prediction of neonatal mortality remains unknown. Likewise, the value of reduced scores (including less than five Apgar score components) has rarely been investigated. In a population-based cohort study of 148 765 liveborn singleton infants in Sweden 2008-2013, we investigated components of Apgar score at 5 min with respect to relative risks and prediction (using ROC curves, sensitivity, and positive predictive values) of neonatal mortality. Reduced values (0-1) of heart rate, respiratory effort, and colour were independently associated with increased relative risks of neonatal mortality. For the full Apgar score, the sensitivity and positive predictive values of neonatal mortality (cut-off ≤3) were by gestational age: ≤31 weeks: 56.1% and 49.2%; 32-36 weeks: 25.0% and 18.2%; and ≥37 weeks: 35.2% and 9.3%, respectively. When only heart rate and respiratory effort were considered (range 0-4; cut-off ≤2), corresponding values were 66.7% and 34.9%; 37.5% and 13.0%; and 46.3% and 7.6%, respectively. A reduced Apgar score has generally the same predictability of neonatal mortality as the full Apgar score. The full Apgar score or reduced scores may be better predictors of neonatal mortality in very preterm infants (≤31 weeks) than in infants with longer gestations. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Predictive model for 5-year mortality after breast cancer surgery in Taiwan residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Su-Hsin; Loh, Joon-Khim; Tsai, Jinn-Tsong; Houg, Ming-Feng; Shi, Hon-Yi

    2017-02-27

    Few studies of breast cancer surgery outcomes have used longitudinal data for more than 2 years. This study aimed to validate the use of the artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the 5-year mortality of breast cancer patients after surgery and compare predictive accuracy between the ANN model, multiple logistic regression (MLR) model, and Cox regression model. This study compared the MLR, Cox, and ANN models based on clinical data of 3632 breast cancer patients who underwent surgery between 1996 and 2010. An estimation dataset was used to train the model, and a validation dataset was used to evaluate model performance. The sensitivity analysis was also used to assess the relative significance of input variables in the prediction model. The ANN model significantly outperformed the MLR and Cox models in predicting 5-year mortality, with higher overall performance indices. The results indicated that the 5-year postoperative mortality of breast cancer patients was significantly associated with age, Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), chemotherapy, radiotherapy, hormone therapy, and breast cancer surgery volumes of hospital and surgeon (all P < 0.05). Breast cancer surgery volume of surgeon was the most influential (sensitive) variable affecting 5-year mortality, followed by breast cancer surgery volume of hospital, age, and CCI. Compared with the conventional MLR and Cox models, the ANN model was more accurate in predicting 5-year mortality of breast cancer patients who underwent surgery. The mortality predictors identified in this study can also be used to educate candidates for breast cancer surgery with respect to the course of recovery and health outcomes.

  10. Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad MH

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Mohamad Hasnan Ahmad,1 Suzana Shahar,2 Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi Teng,2 Zahara Abdul Manaf,2 Noor Ibrahim Mohd Sakian,3 Baharudin Omar41Centre of Nutrition Epidemiology Research, Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Dietetics Program, 3Occupational Therapy Program, 4Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Abstract: This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala ­Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men and 66.1±5.1 (women years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1 exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women; and 2 the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women. Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (ß=0.60 and perceived behavioral control (ß=0.24 were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (ß=0.82 was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, ß=0.68; women’s, ß=0.24 and subjective norm (men’s, ß=0.12; women’s, ß=0.87 were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (ß=0.36 and women (ß=0.49. “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and

  11. A simplified prognostic model to predict mortality in patients with acute variceal bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Han Hee; Park, Jae Myung; Han, Seunghoon; Park, Sung Min; Kim, Hee Yeon; Oh, Jung Hwan; Kim, Chang Wook; Yoon, Seung Kew; Choi, Myung-Gyu

    2017-11-24

    Acute variceal bleeding (AVB) is a major cause of death in patients with liver cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to investigate mortality predictors and develop a new simple prognostic model using easily verified factors at admission in AVB patients. Between January 2009 and May 2015, 333 consecutive patients with AVB were included. A simplified prognostic model was developed using multiple logistic regression after identifying significant predictors of 6-week mortality. Mortality prediction accuracy was assessed with area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. We compared the new model to existing models of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and Child-Pugh scores. The 6-week overall mortality rate was 12.9%. Multivariate analysis showed that C-reactive protein (CRP), total bilirubin, and the international normalized ratio were independent predictors of mortality. A new logistic model using these variables was developed. This model's AUROC was 0.834, which was significantly higher than that of MELD (0.764) or Child-Pugh scores (0.699). Two external validation studies showed that the AUROC of our model was consistently higher than 0.8. Our new simplified model accurately and consistently predicted 6-week mortality in patients with AVB using objective variables measured at admission. Our system can be used to identify high risk AVB patients. Copyright © 2017 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Using Machine Learning to Define the Association between Cardiorespiratory Fitness and All-Cause Mortality (from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing Project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Elshawi, Radwa; Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Blaha, Michael J; Ahmed, Haitham M; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Keteyian, Steven J; Sakr, Sherif

    2017-12-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that cardiorespiratory fitness is a strong marker of cardiovascular health. Machine learning (ML) can enhance the prediction of outcomes through classification techniques that classify the data into predetermined categories. The aim of the analysis is to compare the prediction of 10 years of all-cause mortality (ACM) using statistical logistic regression (LR) and ML approaches in a cohort of patients who underwent exercise stress testing. We included 34,212 patients (55% males, mean age 54 ± 13 years) free of coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent exercise treadmill stress testing between 1991 and 2009 and had complete 10-year follow-up. The primary outcome of this analysis was ACM at 10 years. The probability of 10-years ACM was calculated using statistical LR and ML, and the accuracy of these methods was calculated and compared. A total of 3,921 patients died at 10 years. Using statistical LR, the sensitivity to predict ACM was 44.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 43.3% to 46.5%), whereas the specificity was 93.4% (95% CI 93.1% to 93.7%). The sensitivity of ML to predict ACM was 87.4% (95% CI 86.3% to 88.4%), whereas the specificity was 97.2% (95% CI 97.0% to 97.4%). The ML approach was associated with improved model discrimination (area under the curve for ML [0.923 (95% CI 0.917 to 0.928)]) compared with statistical LR (0.836 [95% CI 0.829 to 0.846], ptesting. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Global longitudinal strain by two-dimensional speckle tracking imaging predicts exercise capacity in patients with chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kou, Seisyou; Suzuki, Kengo; Akashi, Yoshihiro J; Mizukoshi, Kei; Takai, Manabu; Izumo, Masaki; Shimozato, Takashi; Hayashi, Akio; Ohtaki, Eiji; Osada, Naohiko; Omiya, Kazuto; Nobuoka, Sachihiko; Miyake, Fumihiko

    2011-06-01

    Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) predicts mortality in patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). However, a weak correlation was found between LVEF and peak oxygen uptake ([Formula: see text]) in CHF patients. Global longitudinal strain measured by two-dimensional (2D) strain is regarded as a more useful predictor of cardiac events than LVEF. We investigated whether 2D strain obtained at rest could predict peak [Formula: see text] in patients with CHF. Fifty-one patients (mean age of 54.0 ± 12.0 years, 14 females, LVEF 46.0 ± 15.0%) with stable CHF underwent resting echocardiography and cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Leg muscle strength was measured for the evaluation of peripheral factors. Global longitudinal strain (GLS) in the apical 4-, 3-, and 2-chamber views and global circumferential strain (GCS) in the parasternal mid short-axis view were measured. In all patients, peak [Formula: see text] correlated with leg muscle strength (r = 0.55, p exercise capacity, which appeared to be more useful than LVEF, E/E', and GCS in CHF patients with reduced LVEF.

  14. Cardiorespiratory Fitness Change and Mortality Risk Among Black and White Patients: Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrman, Jonathan K; Brawner, Clinton A; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Qureshi, Waqas T; Blaha, Michael J; Keteyian, Steven J

    2017-10-01

    Little is known about the relationship of change in cardiorespiratory fitness and mortality risk in Black patients. This study assessed change in cardiorespiratory fitness and its association with all-cause mortality risk in Black and White patients. This is a retrospective, longitudinal, observational cohort study of 13,345 patients (age = 55 ± 11 years; 39% women; 26% black) who completed 2 exercise tests, at least 12 months apart at Henry Ford Hospital, Detroit, Mich. All-cause mortality was identified through April 2013. Data were analyzed in 2015-2016 using Cox regression to calculate hazard ratios (HR) for risk of mortality associated with change in sex-specific cardiorespiratory fitness. Mean time between the tests was 3.4 years (interquartile range 1.9-5.6 years). During 9.1 years (interquartile range 6.3-11.6 years) of follow-up, there were 1931 (14%) deaths (16.5% black, 13.7% white). For both races, change in fitness from Low to the Intermediate/High category resulted in a significant reduction of death risk (HR 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.49-0.87] for Black; HR 0.41 [95% CI, 0.34-0.51] for White). Each 1-metabolic-equivalent-of-task increase was associated with a reduced mortality risk in black (HR 0.84 [95% CI, 0.81-0.89]) and white (HR 0.87 [95% CI, 0.82-0.86]) patients. There was no interaction by race. Among black and white patients, change in cardiorespiratory fitness from Low to Intermediate/High fitness was associated with a 35% and 59% lower risk of all-cause mortality, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    .... In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development...

  16. Admission body temperature predicts long-term mortality after acute stroke

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kammersgaard, L P; Jørgensen, H S; Rungby, Jørgen

    2002-01-01

    Body temperature is considered crucial in the management of acute stroke patients. Recently hypothermia applied as a therapy for stroke has been demonstrated to be feasible and safe in acute stroke patients. In the present study, we investigated the predictive role of admission body temperature t...... to the long-term mortality in stroke patients....

  17. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Johan E; Itenov, Theis Skovsgaard; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

    2017-01-01

    PURPOSE: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common and serious complication in patients requiring mechanical ventilation in the intensive care unit. The aims of this study were to identify models used to predict mortality in VAP patients and to assess their prognostic accuracy. METHODS...

  18. Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

    2009-01-01

    (highest tertile) (hazard ratio=2.2, 95% confidence interval=1.1-4.7). Low plasma BDNF predicted mortality independently of activities of daily living; education; and a history of central nervous system disease, cerebrovascular accidents, cardiovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease, and low...

  19. Predicting mortality and length-of-stay for neonatal admissions to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To predict neonatal mortality and length of stay (LOS) from readily available perinatal data for neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions in Southern African private hospitals. Methods: Retrospective observational study using perinatal data from a large multicentre sample. Fifteen participating NICU centres ...

  20. Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manabu Shiraishi

    2012-04-01

    Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

  1. Adolescent exercise in association with mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, and cancer among middle-aged and older Chinese women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nechuta, Sarah J; Shu, Xiao Ou; Yang, Gong; Cai, Hui; Gao, Yu-Tang; Li, Hong-Lan; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Zheng, Wei

    2015-08-01

    Little is known regarding the role of early-life exercise, a potentially modifiable factor, in long-term adult morbidity and mortality. We utilized the Shanghai Women's Health Study (SWHS) to investigate adolescent exercise in association with cancer, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older women. The SWHS is a prospective cohort of 74,941 Chinese women ages 40 to 70 years recruited from 1996 to 2000. In-person interviews at enrollment assessed adolescent and adult exercise history, medical and reproductive history, and other lifestyle and socioeconomic (SES) factors. Mortality follow-up occurs via annual linkage to the Shanghai Vital Statistics Registry. Adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were derived from Cox regression models. Adjusting for birth year and other adolescent factors, adolescent exercise was associated with reduced risk of cancer, CVD, and total mortality [HRs (95% CI), 0.83 (0.72-0.95), 0.83 (0.70-0.98), and 0.78 (0.71-0.85), respectively for ≤1.33 hours (h)/week, and 0.83 (0.74-0.93), 0.62 (0.53-0.72), and 0.71 (0.66-0.77), respectively for >1.33 h/week (reference = none)]. Results were attenuated after adjustment for adult SES and lifestyle factors. Participation in sports teams was inversely associated with cancer mortality [HR (95% CI), 0.86 (0.76-0.97)]. Joint adolescent and adult exercise was associated with reduced risk of all-cause, CVD, and cancer mortality [HRs (95% CIs), 0.80 (0.72-0.89), 0.83 (0.69-1.00), and 0.87 (0.74-1.01), respectively], adjusting for adult/adolescent factors, and adolescence exercise only was inversely associated with cancer mortality [HR (95% CI), 0.84 (0.71-0.98)]. Adolescent exercise participation, independent of adult exercise, was associated with reduced risk of cancer, CVD, and all-cause mortality. Results support promotion of exercise in adolescence to reduce mortality in later life. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

  2. Predicting Insulin Absorption and Glucose Uptake during Exercise in Type 1 Diabetes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank, Spencer; Hinshaw, Ling; Basu, Rita; Szeri, Andrew; Basu, Ananda

    2017-11-01

    A dose of insulin infused into subcutaneous tissue has been shown to absorb more quickly during exercise, potentially causing hypoglycemia in persons with type 1 diabetes. We develop a model that relates exercise-induced physiological changes to enhanced insulin-absorption (k) and glucose uptake (GU). Drawing on concepts of the microcirculation we derive a relationship that reveals that k and GU are mainly determined by two physiological parameters that characterize the tissue: the tissue perfusion rate (Q) and the capillary permeability surface area (PS). Independently measured values of Q and PS from the literature are used in the model to make predictions of k and GU. We compare these predictions to experimental observations of healthy and diabetic patients that are given a meal followed by rest or exercise. The experiments show that during exercise insulin concentrations significantly increase and that glucose levels fall rapidly. The model predictions are consistent with the experiments and show that increases in Q and PS directly increase k and GU. This mechanistic understanding provides a basis for handling exercise in control algorithms for an artificial pancreas. Now at University of British Columbia.

  3. Comparing SF-36® scores versus biomarkers to predict mortality in primary cardiac prevention patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahoud, Rony; Chongthammakun, Vasutakarn; Wu, Yuping; Hawwa, Nael; Brennan, Danielle M; Cho, Leslie

    2017-06-15

    Risk stratification plays an important role in evaluating patients with no known cardiovascular disease (CVD). Few studies have investigated health-related quality of life questionnaires such as the Medical Outcomes Study Short Form-36 (SF-36®) as predictive tools for mortality, particularly in direct comparison with biomarkers. Our objective is to measure the relative effectiveness of SF-36® scores in predicting mortality when compared to traditional and novel biomarkers in a primary prevention population. 7056 patients evaluated for primary cardiac prevention between January 1996 and April 2011 were included in this study. Patient characteristics included medical history, SF-36® questionnaire and a laboratory panel (total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL, LDL, ApoA, ApoB, ApoA1/ApoB ratio, homocysteine, lipoprotein (a), fibrinogen, hsCRP, uric acid and urine ACR). The primary outcome was all-cause mortality. A low SF-36® physical score independently predicted a 6-fold increase in death at 8years (above vs. below median Hazard Ratio [95% confidence interval] 5.99 [3.86-9.35], pSF-36® physical score had a c-index of 0.75, which was superior to that of all the biomarkers. It also carried incremental predictive ability when added to non-laboratory risk factors (Net Reclassification Index=59.9%), as well as Framingham risk score components (Net Reclassification Index=61.1%). Biomarkers added no incremental predictive value to a non-laboratory risk factor model when combined to SF-36 physical score. The SF-36® physical score is a reliable predictor of mortality in patients without CVD, and outperformed most studied traditional and novel biomarkers. In an era of rising healthcare costs, the SF-36® questionnaire could be used as an adjunct simple and cost-effective predictor of mortality to current predictors. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Prediction Model of In-Hospital Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Endo, Atsushi; Baer, Heather J; Nagao, Masashi; Weaver, Michael J

    2018-01-01

    Mortality in elderly patients after the surgical treatment of hip fractures remains high. Although individual clinical risk factors have been widely studied, there has been limited research on prediction models in this population. The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality after hip fracture surgery and to evaluate the performance of this model. Using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2012 to 2013, we collected data on 535,475 patients older than 50 years who had hip fracture surgery. Patient characteristics, surgery-specific factors, and Elixhauser comorbidities were used as candidate variables. The patients were randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. The Lasso (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) method was used to select predictor variables, and points were assigned to each variable based on its coefficient. We identified 8 essential predictors (age, timing of surgery, male sex, congestive heart failure, pulmonary circulation disease, renal failure, weight loss, and fluid and electrolyte disorders) for mortality, with a maximum prediction score of 20. The model's area under the curve was 0.74, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value was 0.59 on the testing set. With the application of cutoff values (scores 0-5, 6-9, and 10-20), the observed in-hospital postoperative mortality was 0.6%, 2.5%, and 7.5%, respectively. We built a simple prediction model with 8 essential clinical factors that predict in-hospital mortality after hip fracture surgery. This model may assist in counseling patients and families and measuring hospital quality of care. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

  5. Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

    Science.gov (United States)

    St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

    2015-01-01

    Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

  6. Osteoprotegerin independently predicts mortality in patients with stable coronary artery disease: the CLARICOR trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjerre, Mette; Hilden, Jørgen; Kastrup, Jens; Skoog, Maria; Hansen, Jørgen F; Kolmos, Hans J; Jensen, Gorm B; Kjøller, Erik; Winkel, Per; Flyvbjerg, Allan; Gluud, Christian

    2014-11-01

    To elucidate the prognostic power of serum osteoprotegerin (OPG) in patients with stable coronary artery disease (CAD). Serum OPG levels were measured in the CLARICOR trial cohort of 4063 patients with stable CAD on blood samples drawn at randomization. The follow-up was 2.6 years for detailed cardiovascular events and 6 years for all-cause mortality. OPG levels were significantly increased in non-survivors (21%) compared to survivors (median [quartiles] 2092 ng/L [1636; 2800] compared to 1695 ng/L [1322; 2193, p < 0.0001]). The 2.6-year follow-up showed that OPG adds to the prediction of both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in combination with clinical risk factors (HR [one log10 unit increase] 6.1 [95% CI 2.4-15.6, p = 0.0001]) and HR 6.5 [95% CI 3.4-12.5, p < 0.0001], respectively). Similar, in the 6-year follow-up, OPG was found to be a strong predictor for all-cause mortality. Importantly, OPG remained an independent predictor of mortality even after adjustment for both clinical and conventional cardiovascular risk markers (HR 2.5 [95% CI 1.6-3.9, p < 0.0001]). Serum OPG has a long-lasting independent predictive power as to all-cause mortality and cardiovascular death in patients with stable CAD.

  7. Are scoring systems sufficient for predicting mortality due to sepsis in the emergency department?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Merve Gunes Ozaydin

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Objectives: Scoring systems have been used to risk stratify in intensive care units (ICU, but not routinely used in emergency departments. The aim of this study was to determine accuracy for predicting mortality in emergency medicine with Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Mortality in ED Sepsis (MEDS score and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPSII. Methods: This is a prospective observational study. Patients presenting with evidence of sepsis were all included. SAPSII, MEDS, and SOFA scores were calculated. Analysis compared areas under the receiver operator characteristic (ROC curves for 28-day mortality. Results: Two hundred patients were included; consisting of 31 (14.3% septic shock. 138 (69% severe sepsis and 31 (15.5% infection without organ dysfunction. 53 (26.5% patients died within 28 days.Area under the ROC curve for mortality was 0.76 for MEDS (0.69–0.82, 0.70 for SAPSII (0.62–0.78; and 1.68 for SOFA (0.60–0.76 scores. Pair wise comparison of AUC between MEDS, SAPSII, SOFA and Lactate were not significant. Conclusion: According to our results; SOFA, SAPSII and MEDS were not sufficient to predict mortality. Also this result, MEDS was better than other scoring system. Keywords: Sepsis, Septic shock, Scoring systems, SOFA, SAPSII, MEDS, Lactate, Emergency medicine

  8. Increased mortality in patients with severe COPD associated with high-intensity exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schaadt, Lone; Christensen, Robin; Kristensen, Lars Erik

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Intensity of exercise is believed to be a key determinant of response to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) rehabilitation. We hypothesized that a higher intensity of exercise, in combination with physiotherapist-led instructions and education in management of breathlessness...... prospective cohort study on severe COPD patients referred to outpatient rehabilitation. METHODS: In 2013, four rehabilitation courses were scheduled (spring, summer, autumn, and winter) each lasting 8 weeks and including eight to ten patients. This preliminary study was designed as a controlled cohort study...... assessed from the participants' medical records in an 18-month period. RESULTS: We were able to enroll 31 patients in total (15 in the high-intensity exercise group and 16 in regular intensity). There were no group differences in the hospitalization rates. However, during review of the medical records, we...

  9. The BIG Score and Prediction of Mortality in Pediatric Blunt Trauma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Adrienne L; Wales, Paul W; Malik, Tahira; Stephens, Derek; Razik, Fathima; Schuh, Suzanne

    2015-09-01

    To examine the association between in-hospital mortality and the BIG (composed of the base deficit [B], International normalized ratio [I], Glasgow Coma Scale [G]) score measured on arrival to the emergency department in pediatric blunt trauma patients, adjusted for pre-hospital intubation, volume administration, and presence of hypotension and head injury. We also examined the association between the BIG score and mortality in patients requiring admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). A retrospective 2001-2012 trauma database review of patients with blunt trauma ≤ 17 years old with an Injury Severity score ≥ 12. Charts were reviewed for in-hospital mortality, components of the BIG score upon arrival to the emergency department, prehospital intubation, crystalloids ≥ 20 mL/kg, presence of hypotension, head injury, and disposition. 50/621 (8%) of the study patients died. Independent mortality predictors were the BIG score (OR 11, 95% CI 6-25), prior fluid bolus (OR 3, 95% CI 1.3-9), and prior intubation (OR 8, 95% CI 2-40). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.95 (CI 0.93-0.98), with the optimal BIG cutoff of 16. With BIG BIG ≥ 16, (P BIG score remained predictive of mortality (OR 14.3, 95% CI 7.3-32, P BIG score accurately predicts mortality in a population of North American pediatric patients with blunt trauma independent of pre-hospital interventions, presence of head injury, and hypotension, and identifies children with a high probability of survival (BIG BIG score is also associated with mortality in pediatric patients with trauma requiring admission to the ICU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Morbidity and mortality predictivity of nutritional assessment tools in the postoperative care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özbilgin, Şule; Hanc, Volkan; Ömür, Dilek; Özbilgin, Mücahit; Tosun, Mine; Yurtlu, Serhan; Küçükgüçlü, Semih; Arkan, Atalay

    2016-10-01

    The aim was to evaluate the nutritional situation of patients admitted to the Postoperative Acute Care Unit using classic methods of objective anthropometry, systemic evaluation methods, and Nutrition Risk in Critically Ill (NUTRIC) score, and to compare them as a predictor of morbidity and mortality.At admission to the postoperative care unit, patients undergoing various surgeries were assessed for the following items: Subjective Global Assessment (SGA), Nutritional Risk Index (NRI), Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS)-2002, Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), Charlson comorbidity index (CCI), and NUTRIC score, anthropometric measurements, serum total protein, serum albumin, and lymphocyte count. Patients were monitored for postoperative complications until death or discharge. Correlation of complications with these parameters was also analyzed.A total of 152 patients were included in the study. In this study a positive correlation was determined between mortality and NRS-2002, SGA, CCI, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation , Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment, and NUTRIC score, whereas a negative correlation was determined between mortality and NRI. There was a correlation between NUTRIC score and pneumonia, development of atrial fibrillation, delirium, renal failure, inotrope use, and duration of mechanical ventilation. In our study group of postoperative patients, MNA had no predictive properties for any complication, whereas SGA had no predictive properties for any complications other than duration of hospital stay and mortality.The NUTRIC score is an important indicator of mortality and morbidity in postoperative surgical patients. NRI correlated with many postoperative complications, and though SGA and NRS were correlated with mortality, they were not correlated with the majority of complications. MNA was determined not to have any correlation with any complication, mortality, and duration of hospital stay in our patient group.

  11. Malnutrition Inflammation Score cut-off predicting mortality in maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borges, Mariana Clementoni Costa; Vogt, Barbara Perez; Martin, Luis Cuadrado; Caramori, Jacqueline Costa Teixeira

    2017-02-01

    Malnutrition is a strong predictor of mortality on hemodialysis patients, especially when it is associated with inflammation. Malnutrition Inflammation Score (MIS) is a simple and low cost tool which assesses the presence of malnutrition associated with inflammation. Therefore, the aim is to evaluate if MIS is associated with mortality in patients on maintenance hemodialysis and establish a cut-off to predict mortality at different follow-up periods. Observational retrospective cohort study including 215 patients on hemodialysis between July 2012 and June 2014, censored until November 2015. MIS was used to assess patient's nutritional status at the moment they were enrolled in the study. They were followed for at least 18 months. At the end of 18 months, 38 (17.7%) deaths, 20 renal transplants (9.3%), four facilities transference (1.9%), three dialysis method change (1.4%) and one renal function recovery (0.5%) were observed. One hundred seventy one patients completed at least 24 months of follow-up, and during this additional period, there were five deaths and one renal transplant more. Score higher than 7 points was able to predict mortality for both follow-up periods using sensitivity and specificity analysis and ROC curves. Using this cut-off on Kaplan-Meier survival curve, it was possible to confirm the association of MIS with all-cause mortality at 18 months and 24 or more months of follow-up. Finally, Cox multivariate analysis adjusted for demographic, clinical and nutritional variables showed MIS as the only significant predictor of mortality. MIS is an independent predictor of mortality in hemodialysis patients. Copyright © 2016 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Nurses and physicians in a medical admission unit can accurately predict mortality of acutely admitted patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Hallas, Jesper; Knudsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: There exist several risk stratification systems for predicting mortality of emergency patients. However, some are complex in clinical use and others have been developed using suboptimal methodology. The objective was to evaluate the capability of the staff at a medical admission unit......-hospital mortality upon the patients' arrival. We calculated discriminatory power as the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC) and accuracy of prediction (calibration) by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test. RESULTS: We had a total of 2,848 admissions (2,463 patients). 89 (3.1%) died while......: Using only clinical intuition, staff in a medical admission unit has a good ability to identify patients at increased risk of dying while admitted. When nursing staff and physicians agreed on their prediction, discriminatory power and calibration were excellent....

  13. Prediction of Mortality in Hip Fracture Patients:Role of Routine Blood Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Seyedi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Methods: In a retrospective descriptive study, medical records of 204 hip fractured patients with the age of 60 or older who were admitted to the Department of Orthopedics was considered regarding routine laboratory tests. Predictive values of these tests were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC.  Results: The incidence of death due to hip fracture was 24%. The mortality rate was significantly increased with age > 65 (OR= 15. There was no significant difference between mortality in regards to gender. High plasma BUN (more than 20 mg/dl and creatinine (more than 1.3 mg/dl significantly increased the chance of mortality. [OR= 3.0 and OR=2.5 for BUN and creatinine, respectively]. Patients’ mortality did not show any correlation with sodium and potassium plasma levels and blood hemoglobin. Conclusions: There is direct correlation between plasma levels of BUN and creatinine and 3-month mortality after hip fractures. Patients with high plasma levels of BUN were three times more likely to die than those with normal BUN. Also, patients with high plasma creatinine levels were 2.5 times more likely to die than those who had normal values. Mortality was also associated with increasing age but did not vary with gender. Patients aging more than 65 were 15 times more likely to die following a hip fracture than those with younger age.

  14. Prediction of Mortality in Hip Fracture Patients:Role of Routine Blood Tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Reza Seyedi

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available  Methods: In a retrospective descriptive study, medical records of 204 hip fractured patients with the age of 60 or older who were admitted to the Department of Orthopedics was considered regarding routine laboratory tests. Predictive values of these tests were assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC.  Results: The incidence of death due to hip fracture was 24%. The mortality rate was significantly increased with age > 65 (OR= 15. There was no significant difference between mortality in regards to gender. High plasma BUN (more than 20 mg/dl and creatinine (more than 1.3 mg/dl significantly increased the chance of mortality. [OR= 3.0 and OR=2.5 for BUN and creatinine, respectively]. Patients’ mortality did not show any correlation with sodium and potassium plasma levels and blood hemoglobin. Conclusions: There is direct correlation between plasma levels of BUN and creatinine and 3-month mortality after hip fractures. Patients with high plasma levels of BUN were three times more likely to die than those with normal BUN. Also, patients with high plasma creatinine levels were 2.5 times more likely to die than those who had normal values. Mortality was also associated with increasing age but did not vary with gender. Patients aging more than 65 were 15 times more likely to die following a hip fracture than those with younger age.

  15. Nutritional risk screening 2002 and ASA score predict mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferreira, Nelio

    2017-01-01

    Introduction The aim of the study was to evaluate whether Nutritional risk screening 2002 (NRS 2002) at hospital admission may predict postoperative mortality and complications within 90 days after elective liver resection for malignancy. Material and methods A retrospective cohort study of a prospective database was performed. Two-hundred and three patients with elective liver resection for malignancy between 9 November 2007 and 27 May 2014 were included. Clinical data, NRS 2002, surgical procedures and histology were recorded. The primary endpoint was 90-day mortality. Complications were registered within 90 days postoperatively according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. Results The 90-day mortality was 5.9% and the overall complication rate was 59.1%. Multivariate analysis identified NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 (odds ratio (OR) = 9.24; p = 0.005) and American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) score ≥ 3 (OR = 6.20; p = 0.009) as predictors of 90-day mortality. The 90-day mortality was 27.6% (8/29) for patients with both risk factors (NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3) vs. 2.3% (4/174) for patients without or with only one risk factor (p < 0.001). Conclusions In the present study NRS 2002 score ≥ 4 and ASA score ≥ 3 were predictors of 90-day mortality after elective liver resection for malignancy. PMID:28261289

  16. Comparison of the RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria to predict mortality in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levi, Talita Machado; de Souza, Sérgio Pinto; de Magalhães, Janine Garcia; de Carvalho, Márcia Sampaio; Cunha, André Luiz Barreto; Dantas, João Gabriel Athayde de Oliveira; Cruz, Marília Galvão; Guimarães, Yasmin Laryssa Moura; Cruz, Constança Margarida Sampaio

    2013-01-01

    Acute kidney injury is a common complication in critically ill patients, and the RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria are used to classify these patients. The present study's aim was to compare these criteria as predictors of mortality in critically ill patients. Prospective cohort study using medical records as the source of data. All patients admitted to the intensive care unit were included. The exclusion criteria were hospitalization for less than 24 hours and death. Patients were followed until discharge or death. Student's t test, chi-squared analysis, a multivariate logistic regression and ROC curves were used for the data analysis. The mean patient age was 64 years old, and the majority of patients were women of African descent. According to RIFLE, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 22.58%, 24.19% and 35.48% for patients without acute kidney injury (AKI) in stages of Risk, Injury and Failure, respectively. For AKIN, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 29.03%, 12.90% and 40.32% for patients without AKI and at stage I, stage II and stage III, respectively. For KDIGO 2012, the mortality rates were 17.74%, 29.03%, 11.29% and 41.94% for patients without AKI and at stage I, stage II and stage III, respectively. All three classification systems showed similar ROC curves for mortality. The RIFLE, AKIN and KDIGO criteria were good tools for predicting mortality in critically ill patients with no significant difference between them.

  17. Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

    2015-06-01

    Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

  18. Epigenetic age acceleration predicts cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality in a German case cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perna, Laura; Zhang, Yan; Mons, Ute; Holleczek, Bernd; Saum, Kai-Uwe; Brenner, Hermann

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have developed models predicting methylation age from DNA methylation in blood and other tissues (epigenetic clock) and suggested the difference between DNA methylation and chronological ages as a marker of healthy aging. The goal of this study was to confirm and expand such observations by investigating whether different concepts of the epigenetic clocks in a population-based cohort are associated with cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. DNA methylation age was estimated in a cohort of 1863 older people, and the difference between age predicted by DNA methylation and chronological age (Δage) was calculated. A case-cohort design and weighted proportional Cox hazard models were used to estimate associations of Δage with cancer, cardiovascular, and all-cause mortality. Hazard ratios for Δage (per 5 years) calculated using the epigenetic clock developed by Horvath were 1.23 (95 % CI 1.10-1.38) for all-cause mortality, 1.22 (95 % CI 1.03-1.45) for cancer mortality, and 1.19 (95 % CI 0.98-1.43) for cardiovascular mortality after adjustment for batch effects, age, sex, educational level, history of chronic diseases, hypertension, smoking status, body mass index, and leucocyte distribution. Associations were similar but weaker for Δage calculated using the epigenetic clock developed by Hannum. These results show that age acceleration in terms of the difference between age predicted by DNA methylation and chronological age is an independent predictor of all-cause and cause-specific mortality and may be useful as a general marker of healthy aging.

  19. Mortality Prediction in Patients Admitted in Surgical Intensive Care Unit by Using APACHE IV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetr, Wetwet Wetw; Shoukat, Hassan; Muhammad, Yar; Gondal, Khalid Masood; Aslam, Imran

    2016-11-01

    To predict the mortality by the mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) IV score of all the patients admitted in a Surgical Intensive Care Unit (ICU) and comparing the score of the survivors and non-survivors. Descriptive study. Surgical Intensive Care Unit, Mayo Hospital, Lahore, from June 2013 to November 2014. All adult patients admitted in the Surgical ICU were included in this study. The demographics and other data of the patients were recorded. The APACHE IV scores of all patients were calculated at the time of admission. The scores of the survivors and the non-survivors were compared for prediction of survival and mortality. The age of these patients ranged from 13 to 70 (mean 38.39) years with 86 (55.48%) males and 69 (44.52%) females. The mean APACHE IV score of these patients was 34.96 ±14.93 ranging from 11 to 63 years. Eighty-three (53.55%) patients survived and 72 (46.45%) died. With respect to gender, 41 (47.67%) males out of 86 and 31 (44.92%) females out of 69 did not survive. The mortality increased with an increase in APACHE IV score and all the patients with score more than 39 did not survive. The predicted mortality can be assessed by APACHE IV score, so it is good for application among the surgical ICU patients.

  20. Life span decrements in fluid intelligence and processing speed predict mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aichele, Stephen; Rabbitt, Patrick; Ghisletta, Paolo

    2015-09-01

    We examined life span changes in 5 domains of cognitive performance as predictive of mortality risk. Data came from the Manchester Longitudinal Study of Cognition, a 20-plus-year investigation of 6,203 individuals ages 42-97 years. Cognitive domains were general crystallized intelligence, general fluid intelligence, verbal memory, visuospatial memory, and processing speed. Life span decrements were evident across these domains, controlling for baseline performance at age 70 and adjusting for retest effects. Survival analyses stratified by sex and conducted independently by cognitive domain showed that lower baseline performance levels in all domains-and larger life span decrements in general fluid intelligence and processing speed-were predictive of increased mortality risk for both women and men. Critically, analyses of the combined predictive power of cognitive performance variables showed that baseline levels of processing speed (in women) and general fluid intelligence (in men), and decrements in processing speed (in women and in men) and general fluid intelligence (in women), accounted for most of the explained variation in mortality risk. In light of recent evidence from brain-imaging studies, we speculate that cognitive abilities closely linked to cerebral white matter integrity (such as processing speed and general fluid intelligence) may represent particularly sensitive markers of mortality risk. In addition, we presume that greater complexity in cognition-survival associations observed in women (in analyses incorporating all cognitive predictors) may be a consequence of longer and more variable cognitive declines in women relative to men. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  1. USING BENCH PRESS LOAD TO PREDICT UPPER BODY EXERCISE LOADS IN PHYSICALLY ACTIVE INDIVIDUALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Del P. Wong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m-2 were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p < 0.01. The bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p < 0.01. Linear regression revealed that the bench press load was a significant (R2 range from 0.64 to 0.86, p < 0.01 predictor for the loads of the 4 assistance exercises. The following 6RM prediction equations were determined: (a Hammer curl = Bench press load (0.28 + 6.30 kg, (b Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33 + 6.20 kg, (c Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33 - 0.60 kg, and (d Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42 + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises.

  2. A Predictive Model of Mortality in Patients With Bloodstream Infections due to Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez-Gutiérrez, Belén; Salamanca, Elena; de Cueto, Marina; Hsueh, Po-Ren; Viale, Pierluigi; Paño-Pardo, José Ramón; Venditti, Mario; Tumbarello, Mario; Daikos, George; Pintado, Vicente; Doi, Yohei; Tuon, Felipe Francisco; Karaiskos, Ilias; Machuca, Isabel; Schwaber, Mitchell J; Azap, Özlem Kurt; Souli, Maria; Roilides, Emmanuel; Pournaras, Spyros; Akova, Murat; Pérez, Federico; Bermejo, Joaquín; Oliver, Antonio; Almela, Manel; Lowman, Warren; Almirante, Benito; Bonomo, Robert A; Carmeli, Yehuda; Paterson, David L; Pascual, Alvaro; Rodríguez-Baño, Jesús

    2016-10-01

    To develop a score to predict mortality in patients with bloodstream infections (BSIs) due to carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE). A multinational retrospective cohort study (INCREMENT project) was performed from January 1, 2004, through December 31, 2013. Patients with clinically relevant monomicrobial BSIs due to CPE were included and randomly assigned to either a derivation cohort (DC) or a validation cohort (VC). The variables were assessed on the day the susceptibility results were available, and the predictive score was developed using hierarchical logistic regression. The main outcome variable was 14-day all-cause mortality. The predictive ability of the model and scores were measured by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and accuracy were calculated for different cutoffs of the score. The DC and VC included 314 and 154 patients, respectively. The final logistic regression model of the DC included the following variables: severe sepsis or shock at presentation (5 points); Pitt score of 6 or more (4 points); Charlson comorbidity index of 2 or more (3 points); source of BSI other than urinary or biliary tract (3 points); inappropriate empirical therapy and inappropriate early targeted therapy (2 points). The score exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.80 (95% CI, 0.74-0.85) in the DC and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.73-0.88) in the VC. The results for 30-day all-cause mortality were similar. A validated score predictive of early mortality in patients with BSIs due to CPE was developed. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT01 764490. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Sex Differences in Cardiorespiratory Fitness and All-Cause Mortality: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Juraschek, Stephen P; Whelton, Seamus; Dardari, Zeina A; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Michos, Erin D; Blumenthal, Roger S; Nasir, Khurram; Qureshi, Waqas T; Brawner, Clinton A; Keteyian, Steven J; Blaha, Michael J

    2016-06-01

    To determine whether sex modifies the relationship between fitness and mortality. We included 57,284 patients without coronary artery disease or heart failure who completed a routine treadmill exercise test between 1991 and 2009. We determined metabolic equivalent tasks (METs) and linked patient records with mortality data via the Social Security Death Index. Multivariable Cox regression was used to determine the association between sex, fitness, and all-cause mortality. There were 29,470 men (51.4%) and 27,814 women (48.6%) with mean ages of 53 and 54 years, respectively. Overall, men achieved 1.7 METs higher than women (Pmortality rate for men in each MET group was similar to that for women, who achieved an average of 2.6 METs lower (P=.004). Fitness was inversely associated with mortality in both men (hazard ratio [HR], 0.84 per 1 MET; 95% CI, 0.83-0.85) and women (HR, 0.83 per 1 MET; 95% CI, 0.81-0.84). This relationship did not plateau at high or low MET values. Although men demonstrated 1.7 METs higher than women, their survival was equivalent to that of women demonstrating 2.6 METs lower. Furthermore, higher MET values were associated with lower mortality for both men and women across the range of MET values. These findings are useful for tailoring prognostic information and lifestyle guidance to men and women undergoing stress testing. Copyright © 2016 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Mortality prediction models in the general trauma population: A systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Munter, Leonie; Polinder, Suzanne; Lansink, Koen W W; Cnossen, Maryse C; Steyerberg, Ewout W; de Jongh, Mariska A C

    2017-02-01

    Trauma is the leading cause of death in individuals younger than 40 years. There are many different models for predicting patient outcome following trauma. To our knowledge, no comprehensive review has been performed on prognostic models for the general trauma population. Therefore, this review aimed to describe (1) existing mortality prediction models for the general trauma population, (2) the methodological quality and (3) which variables are most relevant for the model prediction of mortality in the general trauma population. An online search was conducted in June 2015 using Embase, Medline, Web of Science, Cinahl, Cochrane, Google Scholar and PubMed. Relevant English peer-reviewed articles that developed, validated or updated mortality prediction models in a general trauma population were included. A total of 90 articles were included. The cohort sizes ranged from 100 to 1,115,389 patients, with overall mortality rates that ranged from 0.6% to 35%. The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) was the most commonly used model. A total of 258 models were described in the articles, of which only 103 models (40%) were externally validated. Cases with missing values were often excluded and discrimination of the different prediction models ranged widely (AUROC between 0.59 and 0.98). The predictors were often included as dichotomized or categorical variables, while continuous variables showed better performance. Researchers are still searching for a better mortality prediction model in the general trauma population. Models should 1) be developed and/or validated using an adequate sample size with sufficient events per predictor variable, 2) use multiple imputation models to address missing values, 3) use the continuous variant of the predictor if available and 4) incorporate all different types of readily available predictors (i.e., physiological variables, anatomical variables, injury cause/mechanism, and demographic variables). Furthermore, while mortality rates

  5. Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE: We sought to investigate whether preadmission quality of life could act as a predictor of mortality among patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This is a prospective observational study of all patients above the age of 18 years admitted to the ICU...... quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...

  6. Predictive value of early maximal exercise test and thallium scintigraphy after successful percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    W. Wijns (William); P.W.J.C. Serruys (Patrick); M.L. Simoons (Maarten); M.J.B.M. van den Brand (Marcel); P.J. de Feyter (Pim); J.H.C. Reiber (Johan); P.G. Hugenholtz (Paul)

    1985-01-01

    textabstractRestenosis of the dilated vessel after percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty can be detected by non-invasive procedures but their ability to predict later restenosis soon after a successful angioplasty as well as recurrence of angina has not been assessed. A maximal exercise

  7. Can a single dose response predict the effect of montelukast on exercise-induced bronchoconstriction?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kersten, Elin T. G.; Akkerman-Nijland, Anne M.; Driessen, Jean M. M.; Diamant, Zuzana; Thio, Bernard J.

    RationaleExercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) can be prevented by a single dose of montelukast (MLK). The effect is variable, similar to the variable responsiveness observed after daily treatment with MLK. We hypothesized that the effect of a single MLK-dose (5 or 10mg) on EIB could predict

  8. Prediction of treatment outcomes to exercise in patients with nonremitted major depressive disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rethorst, Chad D; South, Charles C; Rush, A John; Greer, Tracy L; Trivedi, Madhukar H

    2017-12-01

    Only one-third of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) achieve remission with initial treatment. Consequently, current clinical practice relies on a "trial-and-error" approach to identify an effective treatment for each patient. The purpose of this report was to determine whether we could identify a set of clinical and biological parameters with potential clinical utility for prescription of exercise for treatment of MDD in a secondary analysis of the Treatment with Exercise Augmentation in Depression (TREAD) trial. Participants with nonremitted MDD were randomized to one of two exercise doses for 12 weeks. Participants were categorized as "remitters" (≤12 on the IDS-C), nonresponders (depressive symptom severity, and higher postexercise positive affect. Predictors of treatment nonresponse were low cardiorespiratory fitness, lower levels of IL-6 and BDNF, and lower postexercise positive affect. Models including these predictors resulted in predictive values greater than 70% (true predicted remitters/all predicted remitters) with specificities greater than 25% (true predicted remitters/all remitters). Results indicate feasibility in identifying patients who will either remit or not respond to exercise as a treatment for MDD utilizing a clinical decision model that incorporates multiple patient characteristics. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundin, Per-Ola; Sjöström, Per; Jones, Ian; Olsson, Lovisa A; Udumyan, Ruzan; Grubb, Anders; Lindström, Veronica; Montgomery, Scott

    2017-04-01

    Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2  = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined.

  10. Predicting Heart Rate at the Ventilatory Threshold for Aerobic Exercise Prescription in Persons With Chronic Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyne, Pierce; Buhr, Sarah; Rockwell, Bradley; Khoury, Jane; Carl, Daniel; Gerson, Myron; Kissela, Brett; Dunning, Kari

    2015-10-01

    Treadmill aerobic exercise improves gait, aerobic capacity, and cardiovascular health after stroke, but a lack of specificity in current guidelines could lead to underdosing or overdosing of aerobic intensity. The ventilatory threshold (VT) has been recommended as an optimal, specific starting point for continuous aerobic exercise. However, VT measurement is not available in clinical stroke settings. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to identify an accurate method to predict heart rate at the VT (HRVT) for use as a surrogate for VT. A cross-sectional design was employed. Using symptom-limited graded exercise test (GXT) data from 17 subjects more than 6 months poststroke, prediction methods for HRVT were derived by traditional target HR calculations (percentage of HRpeak achieved during GXT, percentage of peak HR reserve [HRRpeak], percentage of age-predicted maximal HR, and percentage of age-predicted maximal HR reserve) and by regression analysis. The validity of the prediction methods was then tested among 8 additional subjects. All prediction methods were validated by the second sample, so data were pooled to calculate refined prediction equations. HRVT was accurately predicted by 80% HRpeak (R, 0.62; standard deviation of error [SDerror], 7 bpm), 62% HRRpeak (R, 0.66; SDerror, 7 bpm), and regression models that included HRpeak (R, 0.62-0.75; SDerror, 5-6 bpm). Derived regression equations, 80% HRpeak and 62% HRRpeak, provide a specific target intensity for initial aerobic exercise prescription that should minimize underdosing and overdosing for persons with chronic stroke. The specificity of these methods may lead to more efficient and effective treatment for poststroke deconditioning.Video Abstract available for more insights from the authors (see Supplemental Digital Content 1, http://links.lww.com/JNPT/A114).

  11. Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

    2017-08-14

    Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

  12. A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

    2012-01-01

    Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

  13. Ankle-Brachial Index: A Simple Way to Predict Mortality among Patients on Hemodialysis - A Prospective Study

    OpenAIRE

    Zaida Noemy Cabrera Jimenez; Benedito Jorge Pereira; João Egidio Romão; Sonia Cristina da Silva Makida; Hugo Abensur; Rosa Maria Affonso Moyses; Rosilene Motta Elias

    2012-01-01

    Background: Ankle-brachial index (ABI) can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. Methodology/Principal Finding...

  14. Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miao, Fen; Cai, Yun-Peng; Zhang, Yu-Xiao; Li, Ye; Zhang, Yuan-Ting

    2015-01-01

    Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH) often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF), a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model). Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

  15. Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

    2015-08-01

    Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Nutritional Risk Index predicts mortality in hospitalized advanced heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adejumo, Oluwayemisi L; Koelling, Todd M; Hummel, Scott L

    2015-11-01

    Hospitalized advanced heart failure (HF) patients are at high risk for malnutrition and death. The Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) is a simple, well-validated tool for identifying patients at risk for nutrition-related complications. We hypothesized that, in advanced HF patients from the ESCAPE (Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness) trial, the NRI would improve risk discrimination for 6-month all-cause mortality. We analyzed the 160 ESCAPE index admission survivors with complete follow-up and NRI data, calculated as follows: NRI = (1.519 × discharge serum albumin [in g/dl]) + (41.7 × discharge weight [in kg] / ideal body weight [in kg]); as in previous studies, if discharge weight is greater than ideal body weight (IBW), this ratio was set to 1. The previously developed ESCAPE mortality model includes: age; 6-minute walk distance; cardiopulmonary resuscitation/mechanical ventilation; discharge β-blocker prescription and diuretic dose; and discharge serum sodium, blood urea nitrogen and brain natriuretic peptide levels. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling for the outcome of 6-month all-cause mortality. Thirty of 160 patients died within 6 months of hospital discharge. The median NRI was 96 (IQR 91 to 102), reflecting mild-to-moderate nutritional risk. The NRI independently predicted 6-month mortality, with adjusted HR 0.60 (95% CI 0.39 to 0.93, p = 0.02) per 10 units, and increased Harrell's c-index from 0.74 to 0.76 when added to the ESCAPE model. Body mass index and NRI at hospital admission did not predict 6-month mortality. The discharge NRI was most helpful in patients with high (≥ 20%) predicted mortality by the ESCAPE model, where observed 6-month mortality was 38% in patients with NRI 100 (p = 0.04). The NRI is a simple tool that can improve mortality risk stratification at hospital discharge in hospitalized patients with advanced HF. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Diagnostic Value of Electrocardiogram in Predicting Exaggerated Blood Pressure Response to Exercise Stress Testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eshraghi, Ali; Ebdali, Reyhaneh Takalloo; Sajjadi, Seyed Sajed; Golnezhad, Reza

    2016-08-01

    It is believed that an exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) to exercise stress test is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events. It is also assumed that QT dispersion (QT-d), which was originally proposed to measure the spatial dispersion of ventricular recovery times, may have a relationship to cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to examine the difference of changes in QT-d, Maxi-QT, Mini-QT, and QT-c (corrected QT interval) of the electrocardiogram in two groups of patients with exaggerated blood pressure responses (EBPR group) and normal responses (control group) to exercise testing. Also, the diagnostic value of each of these criteria in the prediction of EBPR was studied. This cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2015 to February 2016 on patients suspected of coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing exercise testing who had been referred to Ghaem and Imam Reza hospitals in Mashhad (Iran). All patients underwent a treadmill exercise test with the 12-lead ECG, which was optically scanned and digitized for analysis of QT-d, QT max, and QT min. Patients were divided into two groups of normal and EBPR to exercise testing. QT changes of ECG were compared between the two groups, and the diagnostic accuracy of QT variables for prediction of EBPR to exercise testing was studied. A multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), Pearson Chi-qquare, independent samples t-test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used as statistical methods in IBM SPSS version 19. Sixty patients (55% male) with a mean age of 50.48 ± 10.89 years were studied in two groups of normal (n=30) and exaggerated blood pressure response (n=30) to exercise testing. Maximum QT and QT dispersion were statistically different in individuals' exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise stress test (p exercise testing. Also, a significant difference in maxi-QT and QT-d was observed between two groups of patients with normal and EBPR during

  18. Saddle Pulmonary Embolism: Laboratory and Computed Tomographic Pulmonary Angiographic Findings to Predict Short-term Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Min; Miao, Ran; Guo, Xiaojuan; Zhu, Li; Zhang, Hongxia; Hou, Qing; Guo, Youmin; Yang, Yuanhua

    2017-02-01

    Saddle pulmonary embolism (SPE) is rare type of acute pulmonary embolism and there is debate about its treatment and prognosis. Our aim is to assess laboratory and computed tomographic pulmonary angiographic (CTPA) findings to predict short-term mortality in patients with SPE. This was a five-centre, retrospective study. The clinical information, laboratory and CTPA findings of 88 consecutive patients with SPE were collected. One-month mortality after diagnosis of SPE was the primary end-point. The correlation of laboratory and CTPA findings with one-month mortality was analysed with area under curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and logistic regression analysis. Eighteen patients with SPE died within one month. Receiver operating characteristic curves revealed that the cutoff values for the right and left atrial diameter ratio, the right ventricular area and left ventricular area ratio (RVa/LVa ratio), Mastora score, septal angle, N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide and cardiac troponin I (cTnI) for detecting early mortality were 2.15, 2.13, 69%, 57°, 3036 pg/mL and 0.18ng/mL, respectively. Using logistic regression analysis of laboratory and CTPA findings with regard to one-month mortality of SPE, RVa/LVa ratio and cTnI were shown to be independently associated with early death. A combination of cTnI and RVa/LVa ratio revealed an increase in the AUC value, but the difference did not reach significance compared with RVa/LVa or cTnI, alone (P>0.05). In patients with SPE, both the RVa/LVa ratio on CTPA and cTnI appear valuable for the prediction of short-term mortality. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. A simple tool for mortality prediction in burns patients: APACHE III score and FTSA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, E C; Pilcher, D V; Bailey, M J; Cleland, H; McNamee, J

    2010-11-01

    Prediction of outcome for patients with major thermal injury is important to inform clinical decision making, alleviate individual suffering and improve hospital resource allocation. Age and burn size are widely accepted as the two largest contributors of mortality amongst burns patients. The APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) III-j score, which incorporates patient age, is also useful for mortality prediction, of intensive care populations. Validation for the burns specific cohort is unclear. A retrospective cohort study was performed on patients admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) via the Victorian Adult Burns Service (VABS), to compare observed mortality with burns specific markers of illness severity and APACHE III-j score. Our primary aim was to develop a mortality prediction tool for the burns population. Between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2008, 228 patients were admitted to the ICU at The Alfred with acute burns. The mean age was 45.6 years and 81% (n=184) were male. Patients had severe injuries: the average percent TBSA (total body surface area) was 28% (IQR 10-40) and percent FTSA (full thickness surface area) was 18% (IQR 10-25). 86% (n=197) had airway involvement. Overall mortality in the 7-year period was 12% (n=27). Non-survivors were older, had larger and deeper burns, a higher incidence of deliberate self-harm, higher APACHE III-j scores and spent less time in hospital (but similar time in ICU), compared with survivors. Independent risk factors for death were percent FTSA (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05, p=0.01) and APACHE III-j score (OR 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.07, pAPACHE III-j score and percent FTSA. Prospective validation of our model on different burn populations is necessary. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

  20. Heart rate turbulence predicts all-cause mortality and sudden death in congestive heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Vallverdu, Montserrat; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Valdes, Mariano; Almendral, Jesus; Cinca, Juan; Caminal, Pere; de Luna, Antoni Bayes

    2008-08-01

    Abnormal heart rate turbulence (HRT) has been documented as a strong predictor of total mortality and sudden death in postinfarction patients, but data in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) are limited. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of HRT for predicting mortality in CHF patients in New York Heart Association (NYHA) class II-III. In 651 CHF patients with sinus rhythm enrolled into the MUSIC (Muerte Subita en Insuficiencia Cardiaca) study, the standard HRT parameters turbulence onset (TO) and slope (TS), as well as HRT categories, were assessed for predicting total mortality and sudden death. HRT was analyzable in 607 patients, mean age 63 years (434 male), 50% of ischemic etiology. During a median follow up of 44 months, 129 patients died, 52 from sudden death. Abnormal TS and HRT category 2 (HRT2) were independently associated with increased all-cause mortality (HR: 2.10, CI: 1.41 to 3.12, P 120 ms. HRT is a potent risk predictor for both heart failure and arrhythmic death in patients with class II and III CHF.

  1. Mortality prediction after kidney transplantation: comparative clinical use of 7 comorbidity indices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Jason; He, Xiang; Liu, Xiang; Shabir, Shazia; Ball, Simon; Cockwell, Paul; Inston, Nicholas; Little, Mark A; Johnston, Atholl; Borrows, Richard

    2011-02-01

    Despite comorbidity associated with chronic kidney disease, little data exist applying comorbidity scoring systems to renal transplant recipients. This study compared the performance of 7 established comorbidity scores in predicting mortality after kidney transplantation. We retrospectively analyzed prospectively collected data from 2033 incident renal transplant recipients. Comorbidity was assessed at baseline, and the following scores were derived: Recipient Risk Score, Charlson Comorbidity Index, Age-adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index, Modified End-Stage Renal Disease Charlson Comorbidity Index, Foley Score, Wright-Khan Index, and Davies Index. Cox models investigated the association of each comorbidity score with mortality; performance characteristics were tested using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Age-stratified Cox analyses showed the Recipient Risk Score-based model displayed the best fit, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed the Recipient Risk Score demonstrated greatest predictive use (5-year mortality c-statistic: 0.787). The independent effect of age on mortality was demonstrated after analysis of scores not containing age as a component (the Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Modified End-Stage Renal Disease Charlson Comorbidity Index, the Davies Index); addition of age to these scores improved fit. Of the currently available comorbidity scores, the Recipient Risk Score demonstrated greatest use. This has implications for deceased-donor allocation algorithms, assessment of confounders in clinical research, and potentially, individual patient management.

  2. Interaction between geriatric nutritional risk index and decoy receptor 3 predicts mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Ming-Tsun; Hu, Fen-Hsiang; Lien, Tse-Jen; Chen, Ping-Jen; Huang, Tung-Po; Tarng, Der-Cherng

    2014-01-01

    Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is common and associated with poor outcome in hemodialysis patients. In hemodialysis patients, geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) and decoy receptor 3 (DcR3) have been shown as the nutritional and inflammatory markers, respectively. The present study aimed to assess the predictive ability of GNRI and DcR3 for PEW status and long-term outcomes in chronic hemodialysis patients. A prospective cohort of 318 hemodialysis patients was conducted with a median follow-up of 54 months. Malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) was used as the reference standard for the presence of PEW. Endpoints were cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Baseline GNRI had a strong negative correlation with DcR3 and MIS score. For patients with age risk factors, GNRI together with DcR3 further significantly improved the predictability for overall mortality (c statistic, 0.823). Low GNRI and high DcR3 were the alternatives for identifying hemodialysis patients at risk of PEW and overall mortality. Further studies are needed to verify whether timely recognition of hemodialysis patients with a high malnutrition-inflammation risk could reduce their mortality by appropriate interventional strategies.

  3. [Interest of Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index for mortality prediction in hemodialysis patients: preliminary study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sirajedine, Khaled; Fardous, Rida; Al Adib, Mohamad; Colomb, Henry; Maurin, Audrey

    2012-07-01

    Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is a simple and quantitative method (based on three objective measurements: weight, height, albumin) for screening patients at risk for malnutrition. However no data are available regarding its relation with mortality in Caucasian hemodialysis patients. We tested the predictive value of GNRI on mortality in a hemodialysis population followed up prospectively for 18 months. A total of 46 stable prevalent (mean age: 76 ± 11 years, range: 42-95) hemodialysis patients from one center were included in the study. GNRI with other nutritional parameters were evaluated for all patients. Sixteen patients (35%) died during the 18 months of follow-up. Multiple logistic model showed that GNRI and Charlson co-morbidity score were significant predictors of mortality. Age and gender were not significant. Our preliminary study carried out on a series of prevalent hemodialysis patients suggests that GNRI is predictor of mortality. To recommend the use of this index for the screening of hemodialysis patients with malnutrition at risk of mortality, our results should be confirmed by a large cohort study. Copyright © 2012 Association Société de néphrologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

  4. Mortality Prediction Model of Septic Shock Patients Based on Routinely Recorded Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marta Carrara

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We studied the problem of mortality prediction in two datasets, the first composed of 23 septic shock patients and the second composed of 73 septic subjects selected from the public database MIMIC-II. For each patient we derived hemodynamic variables, laboratory results, and clinical information of the first 48 hours after shock onset and we performed univariate and multivariate analyses to predict mortality in the following 7 days. The results show interesting features that individually identify significant differences between survivors and nonsurvivors and features which gain importance only when considered together with the others in a multivariate regression model. This preliminary study on two small septic shock populations represents a novel contribution towards new personalized models for an integration of multiparameter patient information to improve critical care management of shock patients.

  5. Using bench press load to predict upper body exercise loads in physically active individuals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Del P; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A; Smith, Andrew W

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m(-2)) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p press load was a significant (R(2) range from 0.64 to 0.86, p press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key pointsThe bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises.No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations.6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises.

  6. Changes in Albuminuria Predict Mortality and Morbidity in Patients with Vascular Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Johannes F. E.; Schumacher, Helmut; Gao, Peggy; Mancia, Giuseppe; Weber, Michael A.; McQueen, Matthew; Koon, Teo; Yusuf, Salim

    2011-01-01

    The degree of albuminuria predicts cardiovascular and renal outcomes, but it is not known whether changes in albuminuria also predict similar outcomes. In two multicenter, multinational, prospective observational studies, a central laboratory measured albuminuria in 23,480 patients with vascular disease or high-risk diabetes. We quantified the association between a greater than or equal to twofold change in albuminuria in spot urine from baseline to 2 years and the incidence of cardiovascular and renal outcomes and all-cause mortality during the subsequent 32 months. A greater than or equal to twofold increase in albuminuria from baseline to 2 years, observed in 28%, associated with nearly 50% higher mortality (HR 1.48; 95% CI 1.32 to 1.66), and a greater than or equal to twofold decrease in albuminuria, observed in 21%, associated with 15% lower mortality (HR 0.85; 95% CI 0.74 to 0.98) compared with those with lesser changes in albuminuria, after adjustment for baseline albuminuria, BP, and other potential confounders. Increases in albuminuria also significantly associated with cardiovascular death, composite cardiovascular outcomes (cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, and hospitalization for heart failure), and renal outcomes including dialysis or doubling of serum creatinine (adjusted HR 1.40; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.78). In conclusion, in patients with vascular disease, changes in albuminuria predict mortality and cardiovascular and renal outcomes, independent of baseline albuminuria. This suggests that monitoring albuminuria is a useful strategy to help predict cardiovascular risk. PMID:21719791

  7. Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derek Richard Dapp

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

  8. Exercise

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... it can lead to weakness of muscles, decreased bone density with an increased risk of fracture, and shallow, inefficient breathing. An exercise program needs to fit the capabilities and limitations ...

  9. Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

    2011-11-15

    Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

  10. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

    2012-01-01

    Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  11. Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuela de Lucas

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

  12. Developing a simple preinterventional score to predict hospital mortality in adult venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Yu-Ting; Wu, Meng-Yu; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Huang, Chung-Chi; Lin, Pyng-Jing

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Despite gaining popularity, venovenous extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VV-ECMO) remains a controversial therapy for acute respiratory failure (ARF) in adult patients due to its equivocal survival benefits. The study was aimed at identifying the preinterventional prognostic predictors of hospital mortality in adult VV-ECMO patients and developing a practical mortality prediction score to facilitate clinical decision-making. This retrospective study included 116 adult patients who received VV-ECMO for severe ARF in a tertiary referral center, from 2007 to 2015. The definition of severe ARF was PaO2/ FiO2 ratio ECMO MV day > 4 (OR: 4.71; 95% CI: 1.98–11.23; P ECMO sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score >9 (OR: 3.16; 95% CI: 1.36–7.36; P = 0.01), and immunocompromised status (OR: 2.91; 95% CI: 1.07–7.89; P = 0.04) were independent predictors of hospital mortality of adult VV-ECMO. A mortality prediction score comprising of the 3 binary predictors was developed and named VV-ECMO mortality score. The total score was estimated as follows: VV-ECMO mortality score = 2 × (Pre-ECMO MV day > 4) + 1 × (Pre-ECMO SOFA score >9) + 1 × (immunocompromised status). The AUROC of VV-ECMO mortality score was 0.76 (95% CI: 0.67–0.85; P ECMO mortality scores were 18% (Score 0), 35% (Score 1), 56% (Score 2), 75% (Score 3), and 88% (Score 4), respectively. Duration of MV, severity of organ dysfunction, and immunocompromised status were important preinterventional prognostic predictors for adult VV-ECMO. The 3 prognostic predictors could also constitute a practical prognosticating tool in patients requiring this advanced respiratory support. Physicians in ECMO institutions are encouraged to perform external validations of this prognosticating tool and make contributions to score optimization. PMID:27472730

  13. Liver fibrosis scores predict liver disease mortality in the United States population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unalp-Arida, Aynur; Ruhl, Constance E

    2017-07-01

    Fatty liver disease is common in the United States and worldwide due to changing lifestyles and can progress to fibrosis and cirrhosis contributing to premature death. We examined whether liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased overall and disease-specific mortality in a United States population-based prospective survey with up to 23 years of linked-mortality data. Data were analyzed from 14,841 viral hepatitis-negative adult participants in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1988-1994. Liver fibrosis was predicted using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI), fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease fibrosis score (NFS), and Forns score. Participants were passively followed for mortality, identified by death certificate underlying or contributing causes, by linkage to National Death Index records through 2011. Hazard ratios (HR) for mortality were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression to adjust for mortality risk factors. During follow-up, cumulative mortality was 28.0% from all causes and 0.82% with liver disease, including primary liver cancer. Elevated liver disease mortality was found with an intermediate to high APRI (HR, 9.44; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.02-17.73), intermediate (HR, 3.15; 95% CI, 1.33-7.44) or high (HR, 25.14; 95% CI, 8.38-75.40) FIB-4 score, high NFS (HR, 6.52; 95% CI, 2.30-18.50), and intermediate (HR, 3.58; 95% CI, 1.78-7.18) or high (HR, 63.13; 95% CI, 22.16-179.78) Forns score. Overall mortality was also greater with higher fibrosis scores. In the United States population, higher liver fibrosis scores were associated with increased liver disease and overall mortality. Liver health management with common clinical measures of fibrosis risk stratification merits further investigation. (Hepatology 2017;66:84-95). © 2017 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases. This article has been contributed to by U.S. Government

  14. Predicting mortality among hospitalized children with respiratory illness in Western Kenya, 2009-2012.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gideon O Emukule

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pediatric respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. We evaluated a modified respiratory index of severity in children (mRISC scoring system as a standard tool to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from children <5 years old who were hospitalized with respiratory illness at Siaya District Hospital from 2009-2012. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to identify patient characteristics predictive for in-hospital mortality. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance statistic. Using bootstrap samples, we re-estimated the coefficients and the optimism of the model. The mRISC score for each child was developed by adding up the points assigned to each factor associated with mortality based on the coefficients in the multivariable model. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3,581 children hospitalized with respiratory illness; including 218 (6% who died. Low weight-for-age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.2], very low weight-for-age (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4, caretaker-reported history of unconsciousness (aOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.4, inability to drink or breastfeed (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8, chest wall in-drawing (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.1, and being not fully conscious on physical exam (aOR = 8.0; 95% CI 5.1-12.6 were independently associated with mortality. The positive predictive value for mortality increased with increasing mRISC scores. CONCLUSIONS: A modified RISC scoring system based on a set of easily measurable clinical features at admission was able to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.

  15. Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

    2017-02-01

    The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

  16. Low platelet activity predicts 30 days mortality in patients undergoing heart surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuliczkowski, Wiktor; Sliwka, Joanna; Kaczmarski, Jacek; Zysko, Dorota; Zembala, Michal; Steter, Dawid; Zembala, Marian; Gierlotka, Marek; Kim, Moo Hyun; Serebruany, Victor

    2016-03-01

    Despite advanced techniques and improved clinical outcomes, patient survival following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) is still a major concern. Therefore, predicting future CABG mortality represents an unmet medical need and should be carefully explored. The objective of this study is to assess whether pre-CABG platelet activity corresponds with 30 days mortality post-CABG. Retrospective analyses of platelet biomarkers and death at 30 days in 478 heart surgery patients withdrawn from aspirin or/and clopidogrel. Platelet activity was assessed prior to CABG for aspirin (ASPI-test) with arachidonic acid and clopidogrel (ADP-test) utilizing Multiplate impedance aggregometer. Most patients (n = 198) underwent conventional CABG, off-pump (n = 162), minimally invasive (n = 30), artificial valve implantation (n = 48) or valves in combination with CABG (n = 40). There were 22 deaths at 30 days, including 10 in-hospital fatalities. With the cut-off value set below 407 area under curve (AUC) for the ASPI-test, the 30-day mortality was 5.90% for the lower cohort and 2.66% for patients with significantly higher platelet reactivity (P = 0.038). For the ADP-test with a cut-off at 400AUC, the 30-day mortality was 9.68% for the lower cohort and 3.66% for patients with higher platelet reactivity, representing a borderline significant difference (P = 0.046). Aside from the platelet indices, patients who received red blood cell (RBC) concentrate had a highly significant (P < 0.0001) risk of death at 30 days. Both aspirin and clopidogrel tests were useful in predicting 30 days mortality following heart surgery, suggesting the danger of diminished platelet activity prior to CABG in such high-risk patients. These preliminary evidence supports early discontinuation of antiplatelet therapy for elective CABG and requires adequately powered randomized trials to test the hypothesis and potentially improve survival.

  17. A Risk Model for Prediction of 1-Year Mortality in Patients Undergoing MitraClip Implantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccheri, Sergio; Capodanno, Davide; Barbanti, Marco; Popolo Rubbio, Antonio; Di Salvo, Maria Elena; Scandura, Salvatore; Mangiafico, Sarah; Ronsivalle, Giuseppe; Chiarandà, Marta; Capranzano, Piera; Grasso, Carmelo; Tamburino, Corrado

    2017-05-01

    There is a lack of specific tools for risk stratification in patients who undergo MitraClip implantation. We aimed at combining preprocedural variables with prognostic impact into a specific risk model for the prediction of 1-year mortality in patients undergoing MitraClip implantation. A total of 311 consecutive patients who underwent MitraClip implantation were included. A lasso-penalized Cox-proportional hazard regression model was used to identify independent predictors of 1-year all-cause mortality. A nomogram (GRASP [Getting Reduction of mitrAl inSufficiency by Percutaneous clip implantation] nomogram) was obtained from the Cox model. Validation was performed using internal bootstrap resampling. Forty-two deaths occurred at 1-year follow-up. The Kaplan-Meier estimate of 1-year survival was 0.845 (95% confidence interval, 0.802 to 0.895). Four independent predictors of mortality (mean arterial blood pressure, hemoglobin natural log-transformed pro-brain natriuretic peptide levels, New York Heart Association class IV at presentation) were identified. At internal bootstrap resampling validation, the GRASP nomogram had good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.78, Somers' Dxy statistic of 0.53) and calibration (le Cessie-van Houwelingen-Copas-Hosmer p value of 0.780). Conversely, the discriminative ability of the EuroSCORE II (the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II) and the STS-PROM (the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score) was fairly modest with area under the curve values of 0.61 and 0.55, respectively. A treatment-specific risk model in patients who undergo MitraClip implantation may be useful for the stratification of mortality at 1 year. Further studies are needed to provide external validation and support the generalizability of the GRASP nomogram. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Perception of exercise difficulty predicts weight regain in formerly overweight women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, David W; Chandler-Laney, Paula C; Alvarez, Jessica A; Gower, Barbara A; Gaesser, Glenn A; Hunter, Gary R

    2010-05-01

    It has been previously reported that overweight and obese individuals perceive exercise as more difficult than their lean counterparts, and this difference may not be solely attributed to physiological differences. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that individual differences in the perception of exercise difficulty during exercise, independent of concurrently measured physiological markers of exertion, are predictive of weight regain, after completion of a weight loss program. A total of 113 formerly overweight women who had previously completed a weight-loss program to achieve a normal body weight (BMI perceived exertion (rating of perceived exertion (RPE)) were recorded. Weight gain was assessed following a subsequent 1-year free-living period. Average weight regain 1 year following the intervention was 5.46 +/- 3.95 kg. In regression modeling, RPE (beta = 0.21, P = 0.01), but not physiological exertion (beta = 0.02, P = 0.81), during the submaximal exercise task was positively associated with 1-year weight regain following weight loss in premenopausal women, independent of measured confounding variables. The association between RPE and weight regain suggests that perception of exercise difficulty is an important predictor of weight regain following a weight-loss intervention.

  19. The impact of delirium on the prediction of in-hospital mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Boogaard, Mark; Peters, Sanne Ae; van der Hoeven, Johannes G; Dagnelie, Pieter C; Leffers, Pieter; Pickkers, Peter; Schoonhoven, Lisette

    2010-01-01

    Predictive models, such as acute physiology and chronic health evaluation II (APACHE-II), are widely used in intensive care units (ICUs) to estimate mortality. Although the presence of delirium is associated with a higher mortality in ICU patients, delirium is not part of the APACHE-II model. The aim of the current study was to evaluate whether delirium, present within 24 hours after ICU admission, improves the predictive value of the APACHE-II score. In a prospective cohort study 2116 adult patients admitted between February 2008 and February 2009 were screened for delirium with the confusion assessment method-ICU (CAM-ICU). Exclusion criteria were sustained coma and unable to understand Dutch. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the predicted probabilities in the model with and without delirium. Calibration plots and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (HL-test) were used to assess calibration. The discriminatory power of the models was analyzed by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) and AUCs were compared using the Z-test. 1740 patients met the inclusion criteria, of which 332 (19%) were delirious at the time of ICU admission or within 24 hours after admission. Delirium was associated with in-hospital mortality in unadjusted models, odds ratio (OR): 3.22 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.23 - 4.66). The OR between the APACHE-II and in-hospital mortality was 1.15 (95% CI 1.12 - 1.19) per point. The predictive accuracy of the APACHE-II did not improve after adding delirium, both in the total group as well as in the subgroup without cardiac surgery patients. The AUC of the APACHE model without delirium was 0.77 (0.73 - 0.81) and 0.78 (0.74 - 0.82) when delirium was added to the model. The z-value was 0.92 indicating no improvement in discriminative power, and the HL-test and calibration plots indicated no improvement in calibration. Although delirium is a significant predictor of mortality in ICU patients, adding delirium as an

  20. Cardiac Troponin Elevation Predicts Mortality in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Snipelisky

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. While patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT have high cardiovascular event rates, preoperative risk stratification may not necessarily predict those susceptible patients. Troponin T (TnT may help predict patients at risk for cardiovascular complications. Methods. Consecutive patients undergoing OLT at Mayo Clinic in Florida between 1998 and 2010 who had TnT obtained within 10 days following surgery were included. Three groups were compared based on TnT level: (1 normal (TnT ≤0.01 ng/mL, (2 intermediate (TnT 0.02–0.11 ng/mL, and (3 elevated (TnT >0.11 ng/mL. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was assessed. Results. Of the 78 patients included, there was no difference in age, gender, severity of liver disease, and echocardiographic findings. Patients in the normal and intermediate TnT groups had a lower overall mortality rate (14.3% and 0%, resp. when compared with those with elevated TnT (50%; P=0.001. Patients in the elevated TnT group had a cardiovascular mortality rate of 37.5% compared with 1.4% in the other groups combined (P<0.01. The elevated TnT group had a much higher mortality rate when compared with those in the intermediate group (P<0.0001. Conclusion. TnT may accurately help risk stratify patients in the early postoperative setting to better predict cardiovascular complications.

  1. Incidence, Mortality and Positive Predictive Value of Type 1 Cardiorenal Syndrome in Acute Coronary Syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pimienta González, Raquel; Couto Comba, Patricia; Rodríguez Esteban, Marcos; Alemán Sánchez, José Juan; Hernández Afonso, Julio; Rodríguez Pérez, María Del Cristo; Marcelino Rodríguez, Itahisa; Brito Díaz, Buenaventura; Elosua, Roberto; Cabrera de León, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    To determine whether the risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with cardiorenal syndrome subtype 1 (CRS1) in patients who were hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) was greater than the expected risk based on the sum of its components, to estimate the predictive value of CRS1, and to determine whether the severity of CRS1 worsens the prognosis. Follow-up study of 1912 incident cases of ACS for 1 year after discharge. Cox regression models were estimated with time to event (in-hospital death, and readmission or death during the first year after discharge) as the dependent variable. The incidence of CRS1 was 9.2/1000 person-days of hospitalization (95% CI = 8.1-10.5), but these patients accounted for 56.6% (95% CI = 47.4-65.) of all mortality. The positive predictive value of CRS1 was 29.6% (95% CI = 23.9-36.0) for in-hospital death, and 51.4% (95% CI = 44.8-58.0) for readmission or death after discharge. The risk of in-hospital death from CRS1 (RR = 18.3; 95% CI = 6.3-53.2) was greater than the sum of risks associated with either acute heart failure (RR = 7.6; 95% CI = 1.8-31.8) or acute kidney injury (RR = 2.8; 95% CI = 0.9-8.8). The risk of events associated with CRS1 also increased with syndrome severity, reaching a RR of 10.6 (95% CI = 6.2-18.1) for in-hospital death at the highest severity level. The effect of CRS1 on in-hospital mortality is greater than the sum of the effects associated with each of its components, and it increases with the severity of the syndrome. CRS1 accounted for more than half of all mortality, and its positive predictive value approached 30% in-hospital and 50% after discharge.

  2. The predictive value of malnutrition - inflammation score on 1-year mortality in Turkish maintenance hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kara, Ekrem; Sahutoglu, Tuncay; Ahbap, Elbis; Sakaci, Tamer; Koc, Yener; Basturk, Taner; Sevinc, Mustafa; Akgol, Cuneyt; Unsal, Abdulkadir

    2016-08-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) on short-term mortality and to identify the best cut-off point in the Turkish maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) population. A total of 100 patients on MHD were included in this prospective single-center study. Demographic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were obtained from all patients. The study population was followed up as a 12-month prospective cohort to evaluate mortality as the primary outcome. Median (IQR) age and HD vintage of 100 patients (M/F: 52/48) were 53 (39.5 - 67) years and 53.5 (11 - 104.7) months, respectively. Deceased patients (n = 7) had significantly older age (years) (50 (38.5 - 63.5) vs. 70 (62 - 82), respectively, p = 0.001), lower spKt/V (1.60 (1.40 - 1.79) vs. 1.35 (0.90 - 1.50), respectively, p = 0.002), lower triceps skinfold thickness (14 (10 - 19) vs. 9 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.021) and higher MIS (5 (4 - 7) vs. 10 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.013). In the ROC analysis, we found that the optimal cut-off value of MIS for predicting death was 6.5 with 85.7% sensitivity and 62.4% specificity (positive and negative predictive values were 0.6951 and 0.8136, respectively). Advanced age, low spKt/V, and high MIS were found to be predictors of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The 1-year mortality rate was significantly higher in MIS > 6.5 group compared to the MIS ≤ 6.5 group (14,3% (6/41) vs. 1.6% (1/59), respectively). Compared to MIS ≤ 6.5 group, 1 year survival time of the patients with MIS > 6.5 was found to be significantly lower (47.8 ± 0.16 vs. 43.6 ± 1.63 weeks, respectively, p (log-rank) = 0.012). MIS is a robust and independent predictor of short-term mortality in MHD patients. Patients with MIS > 6.5 had a significant risk, and additional risk factors associated with short-term mortality were advanced age and low spKt/V.

  3. Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward R. Berchick

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

  4. Post-Exercise Heart Rate Recovery Independently Predicts Clinical Outcome in Patients with Acute Decompensated Heart Failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong-Chan Youn

    Full Text Available Post-exercise heart rate recovery (HRR is an index of parasympathetic function associated with clinical outcome in patients with chronic heart failure. However, its relationship with the pro-inflammatory response and prognostic value in consecutive patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF has not been investigated.We measured HRR and pro-inflammatory markers in 107 prospectively and consecutively enrolled, recovered ADHF patients (71 male, 59 ± 15 years, mean ejection fraction 28.9 ± 14.2% during the pre-discharge period. The primary endpoint included cardiovascular (CV events defined as CV mortality, cardiac transplantation, or rehospitalization due to HF aggravation.The CV events occurred in 30 (28.0% patients (5 cardiovascular deaths and 7 cardiac transplantations during the follow-up period (median 214 days, 11-812 days. When the patients with ADHF were grouped by HRR according to the Contal and O'Quigley's method, low HRR was shown to be associated with significantly higher levels of serum monokine-induced by gamma interferon (MIG and poor clinical outcome. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that low HRR was an independent predictor of CV events in both enter method and stepwise method. The addition of HRR to a model significantly increased predictability for CV events across the entire follow-up period.Impaired post-exercise HRR is associated with a pro-inflammatory response and independently predicts clinical outcome in patients with ADHF. These findings may explain the relationship between autonomic dysfunction and clinical outcome in terms of the inflammatory response in these patients.

  5. Development and validation of a predictive model of acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes

    OpenAIRE

    Gibson, Bryan S; Colberg, Sheri R; Poirier, Paul; Vancea, Denise Maria Martins; Jones, Jason; Marcus, Robin

    2013-01-01

    Background Our purpose was to develop and test a predictive model of the acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design and methods Data from three previous exercise studies (56 subjects, 488 exercise sessions) were combined and used as a development dataset. A mixed-effects Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) was used to select predictors among 12 potential predictors. Tests of the relative importance of each predictor were conducted using the ...

  6. Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minjong Lee

    Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

  7. A Multistate Model Predicting Mortality, Length of Stay, and Readmission for Surgical Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David E; Ostrander, Kaitlin R; Cushing, Brad M

    2016-06-01

    Simultaneously evaluate postoperative mortality, length of stay (LOS), and readmission. National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP). Retrospective cohort. Data from elective general surgical patients were obtained from the 2012 NSQIP Participant Use File. For each postoperative day, each patient's state was classified as index hospitalization, discharged home, discharged to long-term care (LTC), readmitted, or dead. Transition rates were estimated using exponential regression, assuming constant rates for specified time periods. These estimates were combined into a multistate model, simulated results of which were compared to observed outcomes. Age, comorbidities, more complex procedures, and longer index LOS were associated with lower rates of discharge home and higher rates of death, discharge to LTC, and readmission. The longer patients had been discharged, the less likely they were to die or be readmitted. The model predicted 30-day mortality 0.38 percent (95 percent CI: 0.36-0.41), index LOS 2.85 days (95 percent CI: 2.83-2.86), LTC discharge 2.76 percent (95 percent CI: 2.69-2.82), and readmissions 5.53 percent (95 percent CI: 5.43-5.62); observed values were 0.39 percent, 2.82 days, 2.87 percent, and 5.70 percent, respectively. Multistate models can simultaneously predict postoperative mortality, LOS, discharge destination, and readmissions, which allows multidimensional comparison of surgical outcomes. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

  8. Dengue fever mortality score: A novel decision rule to predict death from dengue fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Guo, How-Ran; Su, Shih-Bin; Lin, Hung-Jung

    2017-12-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is still a major challenge for public health, especially during massive outbreaks. We developed a novel prediction score to help decision making, which has not been performed till date. We conducted a retrospective case-control study to recruit all the DF patients who visited a medical center during the 2015 DF outbreak. Demographic data, vital signs, symptoms/signs, chronic comorbidities, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality rates were included in the study. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify the independent mortality predictors, which further formed the components of a DF mortality (DFM) score. Bootstrapping method was used to validate the DFM score. In total, a sample of 2358 DF patients was included in this study, which also consisted of 34 deaths (1.44%). Five independent mortality predictors were identified: elderly age (≥65 years), hypotension (systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg), hemoptysis, diabetes mellitus, and chronic bedridden. After assigning each predictor a score of "1", we developed a DFM score (range: 0-5), which showed that the mortality risk ratios for scores 0, 1, 2, and ≥3 were 0.2%, 2.3%, 6.0%, and 45.5%, respectively. The area under the curve was 0.849 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.785-0.914), and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit was 0.642. Compared with score 0, the odds ratios for mortality were 12.73 (95% CI: 3.58-45.30) for score 1, 34.21 (95% CI: 9.75-119.99) for score 2, and 443.89 (95% CI: 86.06-2289.60) for score ≥3, with significant differences (all p values <0.001). The score ≥1 had a sensitivity of 91.2% for mortality and score ≥3 had a specificity of 99.7% for mortality. DFM score was a simple and easy method to help decision making, especially in the massive outbreak. Further studies in other hospitals or nations are warranted to validate this score. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  9. QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adults with tetralogy of Fallot.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bokma, Jouke P; Winter, Michiel M; Vehmeijer, Jim T; Vliegen, Hubert W; van Dijk, Arie P; van Melle, Joost P; Meijboom, Folkert J; Post, Martijn C; Zwinderman, Aeilko H; Mulder, Barbara J M; Bouma, Berto J

    2017-05-01

    Although QRS duration >180 ms has prognostic value in adults with tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), its sensitivity to predict mortality is low. Fragmented QRS complexes, a simple measurement on ECG, are related to myocardial fibrosis and dysfunction in patients with TOF. Our objective was to determine whether QRS fragmentation predicts major outcomes in TOF. This multicentre study included adult patients with TOF from a prospective registry. Notches in the QRS complex in ≥2 contiguous leads on a 12-lead ECG, not related to bundle branch block, were defined as QRS fragmentation, which was classified as none, moderate (≤4 leads) or severe (≥5 leads). The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause mortality and clinical ventricular arrhythmia, respectively. A total of 794 adult patients with TOF (median age 27 years, 55% male; 52% no QRS fragmentation, 32% moderate, 16% severe) were included. During long-term (median 10.4 years) follow-up, 46 (6%) patients died and 35 (4%) patients had ventricular arrhythmias. Overall, 10-year survival was 98% in patients without fragmented QRS complexes, 93% in patients with moderate QRS fragmentation and 81% in patients with severe QRS fragmentation. In multivariable Cox hazards regression analysis, extent of QRS fragmentation (HR: 2.24/class, 95% CI 1.48 to 3.40, pfragmentation was also independently predictive for ventricular arrhythmia (HR: 2.00/class, 95% CI 1.26 to 3.16, p=0.003). The extent of QRS fragmentation is superior to QRS duration in predicting mortality in adult patients with TOF and may be used in risk stratification. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  10. The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hyo

    2011-08-01

    There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

  11. Prediction of mortality using quantification of renal function in acute heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weidmann, Zoraida Moreno; Breidthardt, Tobias; Twerenbold, Raphael; Züsli, Christina; Nowak, Albina; von Eckardstein, Arnold; Erne, Paul; Rentsch, Katharina; de Oliveira, Mucio T; Gualandro, Danielle; Maeder, Micha T; Rubini Gimenez, Maria; Pershyna, Kateryna; Stallone, Fabio; Haas, Laurent; Jaeger, Cedric; Wildi, Karin; Puelacher, Christian; Honegger, Ursina; Wagener, Max; Wittmer, Severin; Schumacher, Carmela; Krivoshei, Lian; Hillinger, Petra; Osswald, Stefan; Mueller, Christian

    2015-12-15

    Renal function, as quantified by the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), is a predictor of death in acute heart failure (AHF). It is unknown whether one of the clinically-available serum creatinine-based formulas to calculate eGFR is superior to the others for predicting mortality. We quantified renal function using five different formulas (Cockroft-Gault, MDRD-4, MDRD-6, CKD-EPI in patientsrenal function and in three vulnerable subgroups: women, patients with severe left ventricular dysfunction, and the elderly. The prognostic accuracy for readmission was poor for all equations, with an AUC around 0.5. Calculating eGFR using the Cockcroft-Gault formula assesses the risk of mortality in patients with AHF more accurately than other commonly used formulas. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Dispositional Mindfulness Predicts Adaptive Affective Responses to Health Messages and Increased Exercise Motivation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Yoona; O'Donnell, Matthew Brook; Strecher, Victor J; Falk, Emily B

    2017-04-01

    Feelings can shape how people respond to persuasive messages. In health communication, adaptive affective responses to potentially threating messages constitute one key to intervention success. The current study tested dispositional mindfulness, characterized by awareness of the present moment, as a predictor of adaptive affective responses to potentially threatening health messages and desirable subsequent health outcomes. Both general and discrete negative affective states (i.e., shame) were examined in relation to mindfulness and intervention success. Individuals (n=67) who reported less than 195 weekly minutes of exercise were recruited. At baseline, participants' dispositional mindfulness and exercise outcomes were assessed, including self-reported exercise motivation and physical activity. A week later, all participants were presented with potentially threatening and self-relevant health messages encouraging physical activity and discouraging sedentary lifestyle, and their subsequent affective response and exercise motivation were assessed. Approximately one month later, changes in exercise motivation and physical activity were assessed again. In addition, participants' level of daily physical activity was monitored by a wrist worn accelerometer throughout the entire duration of the study. Higher dispositional mindfulness predicted greater increases in exercise motivation one month after the intervention. Importantly, this effect was fully mediated by lower negative affect and shame specifically, in response to potentially threatening health messages among highly mindful individuals. Baseline mindfulness was also associated with increased self-reported vigorous activity, but not with daily physical activity as assessed by accelerometers. These findings suggest potential benefits of considering mindfulness as an active individual difference variable in theories of affective processing and health communication.

  13. Accuracy of circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, T; Huang, W; Szatmary, P; Abrams, S T; Alhamdi, Y; Lin, Z; Greenhalf, W; Wang, G; Sutton, R; Toh, C H

    2017-08-01

    Early prediction of acute pancreatitis severity remains a challenge. Circulating levels of histones are raised early in mouse models and correlate with disease severity. It was hypothesized that circulating histones predict persistent organ failure in patients with acute pancreatitis. Consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis fulfilling inclusion criteria admitted to Royal Liverpool University Hospital were enrolled prospectively between June 2010 and March 2014. Blood samples were obtained within 48 h of abdominal pain onset and relevant clinical data during the hospital stay were collected. Healthy volunteers were enrolled as controls. The primary endpoint was occurrence of persistent organ failure. The predictive values of circulating histones, clinical scores and other biomarkers were determined. Among 236 patients with acute pancreatitis, there were 156 (66·1 per cent), 57 (24·2 per cent) and 23 (9·7 per cent) with mild, moderate and severe disease respectively, according to the revised Atlanta classification. Forty-seven healthy volunteers were included. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) for circulating histones in predicting persistent organ failure and mortality was 0·92 (95 per cent c.i. 0·85 to 0·99) and 0·96 (0·92 to 1·00) respectively; histones were at least as accurate as clinical scores or biochemical markers. For infected pancreatic necrosis and/or sepsis, the AUC was 0·78 (0·62 to 0·94). Histones did not predict or correlate with local pancreatic complications, but correlated negatively with leucocyte cell viability (r = -0·511, P = 0·001). Quantitative assessment of circulating histones in plasma within 48 h of abdominal pain onset can predict persistent organ failure and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. Early death of immune cells may contribute to raised circulating histone levels in acute pancreatitis. © 2017 The Authors. BJS published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of BJS

  14. Abdominal obesity in Japanese-Brazilians: which measure is best for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marselle Rodrigues Bevilacqua

    Full Text Available This study aimed to verify which anthropometric measure of abdominal obesity was the best predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Japanese-Brazilians. The study followed 1,581 subjects for 14 years. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, metabolic, and anthropometric data were collected. The dependent variable was vital status (alive or dead at the end of the study, and the independent variable was presence of abdominal obesity according to different baseline measures. The mortality rate was estimated, and Poisson regression was used to obtain mortality rate ratios with abdominal obesity, adjusted simultaneously for the other variables. The mortality rate was 10.68/thousand person-years. Male gender, age > 60 years, and arterial hypertension were independent risk factors for mortality. The results indicate that prevalence of abdominal obesity was high among Japanese-Brazilians, and that waist/hip ratio was the measure with the greatest capacity to predict mortality (especially cardiovascular mortality in this group.

  15. CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

    2015-02-15

    Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

  16. A Prediction Rule to Stratify Mortality Risk of Patients with Pulmonary Tuberculosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osório, Nuno S.; Castro, António Gil; Ramos, Angélica; Carvalho, Teresa; Meira, Leonor; Araújo, David; Almeida, Leonor; Boaventura, Rita; Fragata, Patrícia; Chaves, Catarina; Costa, Patrício; Portela, Miguel; Ferreira, Ivo; Magalhães, Sara Pinto; Rodrigues, Fernando; Sarmento-Castro, Rui; Duarte, Raquel; Guimarães, João Tiago; Saraiva, Margarida

    2016-01-01

    Tuberculosis imposes high human and economic tolls, including in Europe. This study was conducted to develop a severity assessment tool for stratifying mortality risk in pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients. A derivation cohort of 681 PTB cases was retrospectively reviewed to generate a model based on multiple logistic regression analysis of prognostic variables with 6-month mortality as the outcome measure. A clinical scoring system was developed and tested against a validation cohort of 103 patients. Five risk features were selected for the prediction model: hypoxemic respiratory failure (OR 4.7, 95% CI 2.8–7.9), age ≥50 years (OR 2.9, 95% CI 1.7–4.8), bilateral lung involvement (OR 2.5, 95% CI 1.4–4.4), ≥1 significant comorbidity—HIV infection, diabetes mellitus, liver failure or cirrhosis, congestive heart failure and chronic respiratory disease–(OR 2.3, 95% CI 1.3–3.8), and hemoglobin <12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.1–3.1). A tuberculosis risk assessment tool (TReAT) was developed, stratifying patients with low (score ≤2), moderate (score 3–5) and high (score ≥6) mortality risk. The mortality associated with each group was 2.9%, 22.9% and 53.9%, respectively. The model performed equally well in the validation cohort. We provide a new, easy-to-use clinical scoring system to identify PTB patients with high-mortality risk in settings with good healthcare access, helping clinicians to decide which patients are in need of closer medical care during treatment. PMID:27636095

  17. Exercise

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Idorn, Manja; thor Straten, Eivind Per

    2016-01-01

    We recently demonstrated that voluntary exercise leads to an influx of immune cells in tumors and a greater than 60% reduction in tumor incidence and growth across several mouse models. Improved immunological control of tumor progression may have important clinical implications in the prevention...... and treatment of cancer in humans....

  18. Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Wu

    Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

  19. Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Herng-Chia Chiu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

  20. Predicting mortality of residents at admission to nursing home: A longitudinal cohort study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hallberg Ingalill

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background An increasing numbers of deaths occur in nursing homes. Knowledge of the course of development over the years in death rates and predictors of mortality is important for officials responsible for organizing care to be able to ensure that staff is knowledgeable in the areas of care needed. The aim of this study was to investigate the time from residents' admission to Icelandic nursing homes to death and the predictive power of demographic variables, health status (health stability, pain, depression and cognitive performance and functional profile (ADL and social engagement for 3-year mortality in yearly cohorts from 1996-2006. Methods The samples consisted of residents (N = 2206 admitted to nursing homes in Iceland in 1996-2006, who were assessed once at baseline with a Minimum Data Set (MDS within 90 days of their admittance to the nursing home. The follow-up time for survival of each cohort was 36 months from admission. Based on Kaplan-Meier analysis (log rank test and non-parametric correlation analyses (Spearman's rho, variables associated with survival time with a p-value Results The median survival time was 31 months, and no significant difference was detected in the mortality rate between cohorts. Age, gender (HR 1.52, place admitted from (HR 1.27, ADL functioning (HR 1.33-1.80, health stability (HR 1.61-16.12 and ability to engage in social activities (HR 1.51-1.65 were significant predictors of mortality. A total of 28.8% of residents died within a year, 43.4% within two years and 53.1% of the residents died within 3 years. Conclusion It is noteworthy that despite financial constraints, the mortality rate did not change over the study period. Health stability was a strong predictor of mortality, in addition to ADL performance. Considering these variables is thus valuable when deciding on the type of service an elderly person needs. The mortality rate showed that more than 50% died within 3 years, and almost a third of

  1. Rate of Contrast Extravasation on Computed Tomographic Angiography Predicts Hematoma Expansion and Mortality in Primary Intracerebral Hemorrhage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brouwers, H. Bart|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/375831932; Battey, Thomas W K; Musial, Hayley H.; Ciura, Viesha A.; Falcone, Guido J.; Ayres, Alison M.; Vashkevich, Anastasia; Schwab, Kristin; Viswanathan, Anand; Anderson, Christopher D.; Greenberg, Steven M.; Pomerantz, Stuart R.; Ortiz, Claudia J.; Goldstein, Joshua N.; Gonzalez, R. Gilberto; Rosand, Jonathan; Romero, Javier M.

    2015-01-01

    Background and Purpose - In primary intracerebral hemorrhage, the presence of contrast extravasation after computed tomographic angiography (CTA), termed the spot sign, predicts hematoma expansion and mortality. Because the biological underpinnings of the spot sign are not fully understood, we

  2. Echocardiographic findings predict in-hospital and 1-year mortality in left-sided native valve Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lauridsen, Trine K.; Park, Lawrence; Tong, Steven Y C

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Staphylococcus aureus left-sided native valve infective endocarditis (LNVIE) has higher complication and mortality rates compared with endocarditis from other pathogens. Whether echocardiographic variables can predict prognosis in S aureus LNVIE is unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Consec...

  3. Comparison of Predicted Exercise Capacity Equations and the Effect of Actual versus Ideal Body Weight among Subjects Undergoing Cardiopulmonary Exercise Testing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Reza Ahmadian

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Oxygen uptake at maximal exercise (VO2 max is considered the best available index for assessment of exercise capacity. The purpose of this study is to determine if the use of actual versus ideal body weight in standard regression equations for predicted VO2 max results in differences in predicted VO2 max. Methods. This is a retrospective chart review of patients who were predominantly in active military duty with complaints of dyspnea or exercise tolerance and who underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET from 2007 to 2009. Results. A total of 230 subjects completed CPET on a bicycle ergometer with a male predominance (62% and an average age of 37 ± 15 years. There was significant discordance between the measured VO2 max and predicted VO2 max when measured by the Hansen and Wasserman reference equations (P<0.001. Specifically, there was less overestimation when predicted VO2 max was based on ideal body weight as opposed to actual body weight. Conclusion. Our retrospective analysis confirmed the wide variations in predicted versus measured VO2 max based on varying prediction equations and showed the potential advantage of using ideal body weight as opposed to actual body weight in order to further standardize reference norms.

  4. Predicting hospital mortality using APACHE II scores in neurocritically ill patients: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Ying-Ying; Li, Xia; Li, Si-jie; Luo, Rong; Ding, Jian-ping; Wang, Lin; Cao, Gui-hua; Wang, Dong-yu; Gao, Jin-xia

    2009-09-01

    Four versions of Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation are limited in predicting hospital mortality for neurocritically ill patients. This prospective study aimed to develop and assess the accuracy of a modified APACHE II model in predicting mortality in neurologic intensive care unit (N-ICU). A total of 653 patients entered the study. APACHE II scores on admission, and worst 24-, 48-, and 72-h scores were obtained. Neurologic diagnoses on admission were classified into five categories: cerebral infarction, intracranial hemorrhage, neurologic infection, neuromuscular disease, and other neurologic diseases. We developed a modified APACHE II model based on the variables of the 72-h APACHE II score and disease category using a multivariate logistic regression procedure to estimate probability of death. We assessed the calibration and discrimination of the modified APACHE II model using the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit chi-squared statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC). The modified APACHE II model had good discrimination (AU-ROC = 0.88) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic: chi (2) = 3.707, P = 0.834). The discrimination of the 72-h APACHE II score for cerebral infarction, intracerebral hemorrhage, and neurologic infection was satisfactory, with AU-ROC of 0.858, 0.863, and 1.000, respectively, but it was poor in discriminating for the categories of other neurologic diseases and neuromuscular disease. The results showed that our modified APACHE II model can accurately predict hospital mortality for patients in N-ICU. It is more applicable to clinical practice than the previous model because of its simplicity and ease of use.

  5. Lymph Node Count From Neck Dissection Predicts Mortality in Head and Neck Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Divi, Vasu; Chen, Michelle M; Nussenbaum, Brian; Rhoads, Kim F; Sirjani, Davud B; Holsinger, F Christopher; Shah, Jennifer L; Hara, Wendy

    2016-11-10

    Purpose Multiple smaller studies have demonstrated an association between overall survival and lymph node (LN) count from neck dissection in patients with head and neck cancer. This is a large cohort study to examine these associations by using a national cancer database. Patients and Methods The National Cancer Database was used to identify patients who underwent upfront nodal dissection for mucosal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma between 2004 and 2013. Patients were stratified by LN count into those with Cox proportional hazards regression model was constructed to predict hazard of mortality. Stratified models predicted hazard of mortality both for patients who were both node negative and node positive. Results There were 45,113 patients with ≥ 18 LNs and 18,865 patients with extension (9.3% v 15.1%). Risk-adjusted Cox models predicting hazard of mortality by LN count showed an 18% increased hazard of death for patients with < 18 nodes examined (hazard ratio [HR] 1.18; 95% CI, 1.13 to 1.22). When stratified by clinical nodal stage, there was an increased hazard of death in both groups (node negative: HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.17 to 1.32; node positive: HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.19). Conclusion The results of our study demonstrate a significant overall survival advantage in both patients who are clinically node negative and node positive when ≥ 18 LNs are examined after neck dissection, which suggests that LN count is a potential quality metric for neck dissection.

  6. Estimating glomerular filtration rate in acute coronary syndromes: Different equations, different mortality risk prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Inês; Caetano, Francisca; Barra, Sérgio; Madeira, Marta; Mota, Paula; Leitão-Marques, António

    2016-06-01

    Renal dysfunction is a powerful predictor of adverse outcomes in patients hospitalized for acute coronary syndrome. Three new glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimating equations recently emerged, based on serum creatinine (CKD-EPIcreat), serum cystatin C (CKD-EPIcyst) or a combination of both (CKD-EPIcreat/cyst), and they are currently recommended to confirm the presence of renal dysfunction. Our aim was to analyse the predictive value of these new estimated GFR (eGFR) equations regarding mid-term mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome, and compare them with the traditional Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD-4) formula. 801 patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome (age 67.3±13.3 years, 68.5% male) and followed for 23.6±9.8 months were included. For each equation, patient risk stratification was performed based on eGFR values: high-risk group (eGFRformula, the CKD-EPIcyst equation accurately reclassified a significant percentage of patients into more appropriate risk categories (net reclassification improvement index of 11.9% (p=0.003)). The CKD-EPIcyst equation added prognostic power to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in the prediction of mid-term mortality. The CKD-EPIcyst equation provides a novel and improved method for assessing the mid-term mortality risk in patients admitted for acute coronary syndrome, outperforming the most widely used formula (MDRD-4), and improving the predictive value of the GRACE score. These results reinforce the added value of cystatin C as a risk marker in these patients. © The European Society of Cardiology 2015.

  7. Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: The BioBank Japan project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Hata

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD is a leading cause of death in Japan. The present study aimed to develop new risk prediction models for long-term risks of all-cause and cardiovascular death in patients with chronic phase CVD. Methods: Among the subjects registered in the BioBank Japan database, 15,058 patients aged ≥40 years with chronic ischemic CVD (ischemic stroke or myocardial infarction were divided randomly into a derivation cohort (n = 10,039 and validation cohort (n = 5019. These subjects were followed up for 8.55 years in median. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed using the derivation cohort by Cox proportional hazards regression. Their prediction performances for 5-year risk of mortality were evaluated in the validation cohort. Results: During the follow-up, all-cause and cardiovascular death events were observed in 2962 and 962 patients from the derivation cohort and 1536 and 481 from the validation cohort, respectively. Risk prediction models for all-cause and cardiovascular death were developed from the derivation cohort using ten traditional cardiovascular risk factors, namely, age, sex, CVD subtype, hypertension, diabetes, total cholesterol, body mass index, current smoking, current drinking, and physical activity. These models demonstrated modest discrimination (c-statistics, 0.703 for all-cause death; 0.685 for cardiovascular death and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2-test, P = 0.17 and 0.15, respectively in the validation cohort. Conclusions: We developed and validated risk prediction models of all-cause and cardiovascular death for patients with chronic ischemic CVD. These models would be useful for estimating the long-term risk of mortality in chronic phase CVD.

  8. Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Orsted, David D; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

    2012-01-01

    It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

  9. Artificial neural networks accurately predict mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotondano, Gianluca; Cipolletta, Livio; Grossi, Enzo; Koch, Maurizio; Intraligi, Marco; Buscema, Massimo; Marmo, Riccardo

    2011-02-01

    Risk stratification systems that accurately identify patients with a high risk for bleeding through the use of clinical predictors of mortality before endoscopic examination are needed. Computerized (artificial) neural networks (ANNs) are adaptive tools that may improve prognostication. To assess the capability of an ANN to predict mortality in patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding and compare the predictive performance of the ANN with that of the Rockall score. Prospective, multicenter study. Academic and community hospitals. This study involved 2380 patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding. Upper GI endoscopy. The primary outcome variable was 30-day mortality, defined as any death occurring within 30 days of the index bleeding episode. Other outcome variables were recurrent bleeding and need for surgery. We performed analysis of certified outcomes of 2380 patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding. The Rockall score was compared with a supervised ANN (TWIST system, Semeion), adopting the same result validation protocol with random allocation of the sample in training and testing subsets and subsequent crossover. Overall, death occurred in 112 cases (4.70%). Of 68 pre-endoscopic input variables, 17 were selected and used by the ANN versus 16 included in the Rockall score. The sensitivity of the ANN-based model was 83.8% (76.7-90.8) versus 71.4% (62.8-80.0) for the Rockall score. Specificity was 97.5 (96.8-98.2) and 52.0 (49.8 4.2), respectively. Accuracy was 96.8% (96.0-97.5) versus 52.9% (50.8-55.0) (Pperformance of the ANN-based model for prediction of mortality was significantly superior to that of the complete Rockall score (area under the curve 0.95 [0.92-0.98] vs 0.67 [0.65-0.69]; P<.001). External validation on a subsequent independent population is needed, patients with variceal bleeding and obscure GI hemorrhage are excluded. In patients with nonvariceal upper GI bleeding, ANNs are significantly superior to the Rockall score in predicting the

  10. The pediatric index of mortality 3 score to predict mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit in Palembang, South Sumatera, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Destiana Sera Puspita Sari

    2017-06-01

    Conclusion In Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang, South Sumatera, the PIM 3 can be used to predict mortality in PICU patients, but the score should be multiplied by a factor of 2.24. This recalibration is needed due to the presumed lower standard of care at this hospital compared to that of the originating PIM 3 institutions in developed countries.

  11. Point-of-care testing on admission to the intensive care unit: lactate and glucose independently predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Jan; Blobner, Manfred; Busch, Raymonde; Moser, Norman; Kochs, Eberhard; Luppa, Peter B

    2013-02-01

    The aim of the study was to retrospectively investigate whether parameters of routine point-of-care testing (POCT) predict hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Arterial blood analyses of 1551 patients on admission to the adult surgical ICU of the Technical University Munich were reviewed. POCT was performed on a blood gas analyser. The association between acid-base status and mortality was evaluated. Metabolic acidosis was defined by base excess (BE) 50% of BE, anion gap (AG)-acidosis by AG >16 mmol/L, hyperchloraemic acidosis by chloride >115 mmol/L. Metabolic alkalosis was defined by BE ≥3 mmol/L. Logistic regression analysis identified variables independently associated with mortality. Overall mortality was 8.8%. Mortality was greater in male patients (p=0.012). Mean age was greater in non-survivors (pmortality 7.3%), thereof 26 patients with pCO(2)>55 mm Hg (mortality 23.1%). Three hundred and seventy-seven patients presented with acidosis (mortality 11.4%), thereof 163 patients with lactic acidosis (mortality 19%). Mortality for alkalosis (174 patients) was 12.1%. Mean blood glucose level for non-survivors was higher compared to survivors (pmortality. Lactate and glucose on ICU admission independently predict mortality. BE and AG failed as prognostic markers. Lactic acidosis showed a high mortality rate implying that lactate levels should be obtained on ICU admission. Prevalence of hyperchloraemic acidosis was low. Metabolic alkalosis was associated with an increased mortality. Further studies on this disturbance and its attendant high mortality are warranted.

  12. Ankle-brachial blood pressure index predicts all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in hemodialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ono, Kumeo; Tsuchida, Akiyasu; Kawai, Hironobu; Matsuo, Hidenori; Wakamatsu, Ryouji; Maezawa, Akira; Yano, Shintarou; Kawada, Tomoyuki; Nojima, Yoshihisa

    2003-06-01

    A reduction in ankle-brachial BP index (ABPI) is associated with generalized atherosclerotic diseases and predicts cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in several patient populations. However, a large-scale analysis of ABPI is lacking for hemodialysis (HD) patients, and its use in this population is not fully validated. A cohort of 1010 Japanese patients undergoing chronic hemodialysis was studied between November 1999 and May 2002. Mean age at entry was 60.6 +/- 12.5 yr, and duration of follow-up was 22.3 +/- 5.6 mo. Patients were stratified into five groups ( or = 0.9 to or = 1.0 to or = 1.1 to or = 1.3) by ABPI measured at entry by an oscillometric method. The frequency distribution of ABPI was 16.5% of patients or = 0.9 to or = to or 1.1 to or = 1.3). The relative risk of a history of diabetes mellitus (DM), cardiovascular, and cerebrovascular disease was significantly higher in patients with lower ABPI than those with ABPI > or = 1.1 to or = 0.9 to or = 1.3) also had poor prognosis (HR, 2.33 [1.11 to 4.89] and 3.04 [1.14 to 8.12] for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively). Thus, the present findings validate ABPI as a powerful and independent predictor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among hemodialysis patients.

  13. Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter; Tepel, Martin

    2007-06-01

    Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy. We performed a prospective cohort study of 71 patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 in an outpatient hemodialysis center. Subjects were recruited in June 1998 and followed for 83 months. Survival was compared by the Kaplan-Meier method. After 83 months of follow-up, 48 patients (68%) had died. Serum leptin concentrations at study entry were lower among all deceased patients compared with those patients who survived (5.2 +/- 9.0 microg/L; n = 48; vs. 7.7 +/- 7.8 microg/L; n = 23; p = 0.005). Baseline serum leptin concentrations were significantly lower in patients who died from cardiovascular diseases (4.7 +/- 9.4 microg/L, n = 32) or infections (4.0 +/- 2.7 microg/L; n = 10; each p leptin concentrations below the median (leptin concentrations below the median compared with those whose leptin concentrations were above the median (all-cause mortality, chi(2) = 5.05; p = 0.02). Low serum leptin concentration is an independent predictor of mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy.

  14. Flow-Mediated Dilatation and Asymmetric Dimethylarginine Do Not Predict Mortality in Peritoneal Dialysis Patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sami Uzun

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Aim: Asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA is associated with increased coronary artery disease risk through endothelial dysfunction in dialysis patients. We aimed to investigate the role of flow-mediated dilatation (FMD, a non-invasive indicator of endothelial function, and ADMA in mortality in peritoneal dialysis (PD patients. Methods: PD patients aged 18-80 years; with dialysis duration of at least three months were included. FMD measurement and ADMA levels were recorded. Outcome of the patients on the third year were analyzed with binary logistic analyses. Results: The mean age of the 55 patients was 53±15 years and the mean follow-up duration was 36 months. Mean FMD and ADMA levels were 10.6±6.4% and 81.8±48.0 mol/L, respectively. Eighteen patients died during follow-up. Age, presence of diabetes mellitus and ischemic heart disease, ultrafiltration amount and serum albumin level were related with mortality while gender, weekly Kt/V and ADMA levels were not. There was no significant relationship between ADMA level and FMD (p=0.873. FMD was negatively correlated with systolic and diastolic blood pressures (p=0.001, p<0.001, respectively. Hypertension was found to be the most important single factor determining FMD (p=0.037. Conclusion: Estimating endothelial function by FMD or measuring serum ADMA levels may not be useful for predicting mortality in PD patients.

  15. Subendocardial viability ratio predicts cardiovascular mortality in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Micco, L; Salvi, P; Bellasi, A; Sirico, M L; Di Iorio, B

    2013-01-01

    The subendocardial viability ratio (SEVR), calculated by pulse wave analysis, is an index of myocardial oxygen supply and demand. Here we analyze the relation between SEVR and cardiovascular mortality in the chronic kidney disease (CKD) population of a post hoc analysis of a multicenter, prospective, randomized, nonblinded study. We studied 212 consecutive asymptomatic outpatients receiving care at 12 nephrology clinics in south Italy. Inclusion criteria were age >18 years, 6 months of follow-up before the enrollment and stage 3-4 CKD. During follow-up, 34 subjects died, 29 of them for cardiovascular causes. SEVR correlated inversely with vascular calcifications (r = -0.37) and myocardial mass (r = -0.45); SEVR changed from 1.33 ± 0.24 to 1.36 ± 0.16 (p = NS; baseline and final values, respectively) in living patients, and from 1.16 ± 0.31 to 0.68 ± 0.26 in deceased patients (p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier curves show that that a greater reduction of SEVR values during the study (third tertile) significantly predicts cardiovascular mortality (p < 0.0001). This post hoc analysis shows that a reduction of SEVR values impacts cardiovascular mortality in CKD patients. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  16. Changes in Theory-Based Psychological Factors Predict Weight Loss in Women with Class III Obesity Initiating Supported Exercise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J. Annesi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Psychological factors' effect on weight loss is poorly understood, in general, and specifically in the severely obese. Objective. To examine whether a behavioral model based on tenets of social cognitive and self-efficacy theory will increase understanding of the relationship between exercise and weight loss. Methods. Fifty-one women with severe obesity participated in a 24-week exercise and nutrition information treatment and were measured on changes in psychological factors and exercise attendance. Results. A significant portion of the variance in BMI change (adjusted for number of predictors was accounted for by the behavioral model (2adj=0.23. Entry of exercise session attendance only marginally improved the prediction to 0.27. Only 19% of the weight lost was directly attributable to caloric expenditure from exercise. Conclusions. Findings suggest that participation in an exercise program affects weight loss through psychological pathways and, thus, may be important in the behavioral treatment of severe obesity.

  17. Metabolomics in nutrition research: biomarkers predicting mortality in children with severe acute malnutrition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freemark, Michael

    2015-03-01

    Millions of the world's children suffer from malnutrition, which predisposes to death from diarrhea and a variety of infectious diseases. Mortality rates among infants and toddlers remain staggeringly high, in part because the pathogenesis of acute malnutrition and its complications remains poorly understood. We used metabolomic analysis to characterize the metabolic status of Ugandan children with severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and to delineate changes in hormones, metabolites, growth factors, and cytokines during nutritional therapy. We hypothesized that hormonal and metabolic factors measured at presentation would associate with, or predict, subsequent mortality during treatment. This was a prospective cohort study of 75 severely malnourished children 6 months to 5 years of age treated as inpatients with F-75 and F-100 and supplemental micronutrients; after discharge, they received ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). This increased the mean weight-for-height z-score (WHZ) from -4.27 to -1.75 SD. Blood samples were obtained at presentation, after 2 weeks of inpatient therapy, and after 4 to 10 weeks of RUTF. Plasma samples were analyzed by tandem mass spectrometry and microassays. At presentation there were high levels of nonesterified fatty acids (NEFA), ketones, and even-chain acylcarnitines, indicating active lipolysis and fatty acid oxidation. In contrast, albumin, amino acids, and C3 carnitine, a by-product of branched-chain amino acids, were low. Levels of insulin, insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), adiponectin, and leptin were low, while levels of ghrelin, growth hormone, cortisol, interleukin 6 (IL-6), peptide YY (PYY), and glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) were high. The metabolic and hormonal changes were reversed by formula feeding and RUTF. Biomarkers associated with mortality included HIV, WHZ, and mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC); the biochemical factor associated most strongly with mortality was low leptin, a marker of adipose reserve and

  18. Triage vital signs predict in-hospital mortality among emergency department patients with acute poisoning: a case control study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Jiun-Hao

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To document the relationship between triage vital signs and in-hospital mortality among emergency department (ED patients with acute poisoning. Methods Poisoning patients who admitted to our emergency department during the study period were enrolled. Patient’s demographic data were collected and odds ratios (OR of triage vital signs to in-hospital mortality were assessed. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to determine the proper cut-off value of vital signs that predict in-hospital mortality. Logistic regression analysis was performed to test the association of in-hospital mortality and vital signs after adjusting for different variables. Results 997 acute poisoning patients were enrolled, with 70 fatal cases (6.7%. A J-shaped relationship was found between triage vital signs and in-hospital mortality. ED triage vital signs exceed cut-off values independently predict in-hospital mortality after adjusting for variables were as follow: body temperature 37°C, p 150 mmHg, p 120 bpm, p 20 per minute, p = 0.38, OR: 1.4. Conclusions Triage vital signs could predict in-hospital mortality among ED patients with acute poisoning. A J-curve relationship was found between triage vital signs and in-hospital mortality. ED physicians should take note of the extreme initial vital signs in these patients.

  19. Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

    2016-01-01

    of mortality (P = 0.02). Reduced Dyx also predicted cardiovascular death (P sudden cardiovascular death (P = 0.05). In Kaplan-Meier analysis, Dyx significantly predicted mortality in patients both with and without impaired left ventricular systolic function (P .... Of all traditional and multipole HRV parameters, reduced Dyx was the most powerful predictor of all-cause mortality (HR 2.4; CI 1.5 to 3.8; P diabetes, ejection fraction, previous MI and hypertension, Dyx remained an independent predictor...

  20. Mortality prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia: PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is the answer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin

    2017-05-01

    Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO2 /FiO2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO2 /FiO2  ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count lymphocyte count performed well for mortality prediction with area under the curve (AUC) of 0.945, which was significantly better than current CAP severity scores of PSI, CURB-65 and confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 years for mortality prediction (P lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor of hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia in predicting mortality and ICU admission. When PO2 /FiO2  ≤ 250 or peripheral blood lymphocyte count <0.8 × 10(9) /L, the clinician should pay great attention to the possibility of severe influenza pneumonia. © 2015 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. What weather variables are important in predicting heat-related mortality? A new application of statistical learning methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Kai; Li, Yun; Schwartz, Joel D; O'Neill, Marie S

    2014-07-01

    Hot weather increases risk of mortality. Previous studies used different sets of weather variables to characterize heat stress, resulting in variation in heat-mortality associations depending on the metric used. We employed a statistical learning method - random forests - to examine which of the various weather variables had the greatest impact on heat-related mortality. We compiled a summertime daily weather and mortality counts dataset from four U.S. cities (Chicago, IL; Detroit, MI; Philadelphia, PA; and Phoenix, AZ) from 1998 to 2006. A variety of weather variables were ranked in predicting deviation from typical daily all-cause and cause-specific death counts. Ranks of weather variables varied with city and health outcome. Apparent temperature appeared to be the most important predictor of heat-related mortality for all-cause mortality. Absolute humidity was, on average, most frequently selected as one of the top variables for all-cause mortality and seven cause-specific mortality categories. Our analysis affirms that apparent temperature is a reasonable variable for activating heat alerts and warnings, which are commonly based on predictions of total mortality in next few days. Additionally, absolute humidity should be included in future heat-health studies. Finally, random forests can be used to guide the choice of weather variables in heat epidemiology studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  2. Self-control Predicts Exercise Behavior by Force of Habit, a Conceptual Replication of Adriaanse et al. (2014)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillebaart, Marleen; Adriaanse, Marieke A.

    2017-01-01

    A recent study suggests that habits play a mediating role in the association between trait self-control and eating behavior, supporting a notion of effortless processes in trait self-control (Adriaanse et al., 2014). We conceptually replicated this research in the area of exercise behavior, hypothesizing that these associations would generalize to other self-control related behaviors. Sufficient exercise is essential for several health and well-being outcomes, and therefore many people intend to exercise. However, the majority of the population does not actually exercise to a sufficient or intended extent, due to competing temptations and short-term goals. This conflict makes exercise a typical example of a self-control dilemma. A within-subjects survey study was conducted to test associations between trait self-control, habit strength, and exercise behavior. Participants were recruited at a local gym. Results demonstrated that trait self-control predicted exercise behavior. Mediation analysis revealed that the association between self-control and exercise was mediated by stronger exercise habits, replicating findings by Adriaanse et al. (2014). These results highlight the relevance of self-control in the domain of exercise. In addition, they add to a growing body of knowledge on the underlying mechanisms of trait self-control on behavior that point to habit—rather than effortful impulse inhibition—as a potential key to self-control success. PMID:28243217

  3. Time Preferences Predict Mortality among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Antiretroviral Therapy in Kenya.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harsha Thirumurthy

    Full Text Available Identifying characteristics of HIV-infected adults likely to have poor treatment outcomes can be useful for targeting interventions efficiently. Research in economics and psychology suggests that individuals' intertemporal time preferences, which indicate the extent to which they trade-off immediate vs. future cost and benefits, can influence various health behaviors. While there is empirical support for the association between time preferences and various non-HIV health behaviors and outcomes, the extent to which time preferences predict outcomes of those receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART has not been examined previously.HIV-infected adults initiating ART were enrolled at a health facility in Kenya. Participants' time preferences were measured at enrollment and used to classify them as having either a low or high discount rate for future benefits. At 48 weeks, we assessed mortality and ART adherence, as measured by Medication Event Monitoring System (MEMS. Logistic regression models adjusting for socio-economic characteristics and risk factors were used to determine the association between time preferences and mortality as well as MEMS adherence ≥90%.Overall, 44% (96/220 of participants were classified as having high discount rates. Participants with high discount rates had significantly higher 48-week mortality than participants with low discount rates (9.3% vs. 3.1%; adjusted odds ratio 3.84; 95% CI 1.03, 14.50. MEMS adherence ≥90% was similar for participants with high vs. low discount rates (42.3% vs. 49.6%, AOR 0.70; 95% CI 0.40, 1.25.High discount rates were associated with significantly higher risk of mortality among HIV-infected patients initiating ART. Greater use of time preference measures may improve identification of patients at risk of poor clinical outcomes. More research is needed to further identify mechanisms of action and also to build upon and test the generalizability of this finding.

  4. Nutritional Status Predicts 10-Year Mortality in Patients with End-Stage Renal Disease on Hemodialysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kang, Shin Sook; Chang, Jai Won; Park, Yongsoon

    2017-04-18

    Protein-energy wasting (PEW) is associated with mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on maintenance hemodialysis. The correct diagnosis of PEW is extremely important in order to predict clinical outcomes. However, it is unclear which parameters should be used to diagnose PEW. Therefore, this retrospective observational study investigated the relationship between mortality and nutritional parameters in ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. A total of 144 patients were enrolled. Nutritional parameters, including body mass index, serum albumin, dietary intake, normalized protein catabolic rate (nPCR), and malnutrition inflammation score (MIS), were measured at baseline. Fifty-three patients died during the study. Survivors had significantly higher nPCR (1.10 ± 0.24 g/kg/day vs. 1.01 ± 0.21 g/kg/day; p = 0.048), energy intake (26.7 ± 5.8 kcal/kg vs. 24.3 ± 4.2 kcal/kg; p = 0.009) and protein intake (0.91 ± 0.21 g/kg vs. 0.82 ± 0.24 g/kg; p = 0.020), and lower MIS (5.2 ± 2.3 vs. 6.1 ± 2.1, p = 0.039). In multivariable analysis, energy intake 5 (HR 2.146, 95% CI 1.173-3.928; p = 0.013) were independent variables associated with all-cause mortality. These results suggest that higher MIS and lower energy intake are harmful to ESRD patients on maintenance hemodialysis. Optimal energy intake could reduce mortality in these patients.

  5. Prediction of Waitlist Mortality in Adult Heart Transplant Candidates: The Candidate Risk Score.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jasseron, Carine; Legeai, Camille; Jacquelinet, Christian; Leprince, Pascal; Cantrelle, Christelle; Audry, Benoît; Porcher, Raphael; Bastien, Olivier; Dorent, Richard

    2017-09-01

    The cardiac allocation system in France is currently based on urgency and geography. Medical urgency is defined by therapies without considering objective patient mortality risk factors. This study aimed to develop a waitlist mortality risk score from commonly available candidate variables. The study included all patients, aged 16 years or older, registered on the national registry CRISTAL for first single-organ heart transplantation between January 2010 and December 2014. This population was randomly divided in a 2:1 ratio into derivation and validation cohorts. The association of variables at listing with 1-year waitlist death or delisting for worsening medical condition was assessed within the derivation cohort. The predictors were used to generate a candidate risk score (CRS). Validation of the CRS was performed in the validation cohort. Concordance probability estimation (CPE) was used to evaluate the discriminative capacity of the models. During the study period, 2333 patients were newly listed. The derivation (n =1 555) and the validation cohorts (n = 778) were similar. Short-term mechanical circulatory support, natriuretic peptide decile, glomerular filtration rate, and total bilirubin level were included in a simplified model and incorporated into the score. The Concordance probability estimation of the CRS was 0.73 in the derivation cohort and 0.71 in the validation cohort. The correlation between observed and expected 1-year waitlist mortality in the validation cohort was 0.87. The candidate risk score provides an accurate objective prediction of waitlist mortality. It is currently being used to develop a modified cardiac allocation system in France.

  6. [Predictive value of the VMS theme 'Frail elderly': delirium, falling and mortality in elderly hospital patients].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oud, Frederike M M; de Rooij, Sophia E J A; Schuurman, Truus; Duijvelaar, Karlijn M; van Munster, Barbara C

    2015-01-01

    To determine the predictive value of safety management system (VMS) screening questions for falling, delirium, and mortality, as punt down in the VMS theme 'Frail elderly'. Retrospective observational study. We selected all patients ≥ 70 years who were admitted to non-ICU wards at the Deventer Hospital, the Netherlands, for at least 24 hours between 28 March 2011 and 10 June 2011. On admission, patients were screened with the VMS instrument by a researcher. Delirium and falls were recorded during hospitalisation. Six months after hospitalisation, data on mortality were collected. We included 688 patients with a median age of 78.7 (range: 70.0-97.1); 50.7% was male. The sensitivity of the screening for delirium risk was 82%, the specificity 62%. The sensitivity of the screening for risk of falling was 63%, the specificity 65%. Independent predictors for mortality within 6 months were delirium risk (odds ratio (OR): 2.3; 95% CI 1.1-3.2), malnutrition (OR: 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.5), admission to a non-surgical ward (OR: 3.0; 95% CI 1.8-5.1), and older age (OR: 1.1; 95%CI 1.0-1.1). Patients classified by the VMS theme 'Frail elderly' as having more risk factors had a higher risk of dying (p < 0.001). The VMS screening for delirium is a reasonably reliable instrument for identifying those elderly people with a high risk of developing this condition; the VMS sensitivity for fall risk is moderate. The number of positive VMS risk factors correlates with mortality and may therefore be regarded as a measure of frailty.

  7. Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

    2015-01-01

    Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

  8. Extravasation of contrast (Spot Sign) predicts in-hospital mortality in ruptured arteriovenous malformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Zengpanpan; Ai, Xiaolin; Zheng, Jun; Hu, Xin; You, Chao; Andrew M, Faramand; Fang, Fang

    2017-10-09

    The spot sign is a highly specific and sensitive predictor of hematoma expansion in following primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Rare cases of the spot sign have been documented in patients with intracranial hemorrhage secondary to arteriovenous malformation (AVM). The purpose of this retrospective study is to assess the accuracy of spot sign in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ruptured AVM. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database was performed for patients who presented to West China Hospital with ICH secondary to AVM in the period between January 2009 and September 2016. Two radiologists blinded to the clinical data independently assessed the imaging data, including the presence of spot sign. Statistical analysis using univariate testing, multivariate logistic regression testing, and receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was performed. A total of 116 patients were included. Overall, 18.9% (22/116) of subjects had at least 1 spot sign detected by CT angiography, 7% (8/116) died in hospital, and 27% (31/116) of the patients had a poor outcome after 90 days. The spot sign had a sensitivity of 62.5% and specificity of 84.3% for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = .02, AUC 0.734). No correlation detected between the spot sign and 90-day outcomes under multiple logistic regression (p = .19). The spot sign is an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality. The presence of spot sign did not correlate with the 90 day outcomes in this patient cohort. The results of this report suggest that patients with ruptured AVM with demonstrated the spot sign on imaging must receive aggressive treatment early on due to the high risk of mortality.

  9. Development and Validation of a Mortality Prediction Model for Patients Receiving 14 Days of Mechanical Ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Catherine L; Caldwell, Ellen S; Cox, Christopher E; Douglas, Ivor S; Kahn, Jeremy M; White, Douglas B; Seeley, Eric J; Bangdiwala, Shrikant I; Rubenfeld, Gordon D; Angus, Derek C; Carson, Shannon S

    2015-11-01

    The existing risk prediction model for patients requiring prolonged mechanical ventilation is not applicable until after 21 days of mechanical ventilation. We sought to develop and validate a mortality prediction model for patients earlier in the ICU course using data from day 14 of mechanical ventilation. Multicenter retrospective cohort study. Forty medical centers across the United States. Adult patients receiving at least 14 days of mechanical ventilation. None. Predictor variables were measured on day 14 of mechanical ventilation in the development cohort and included in a logistic regression model with 1-year mortality as the outcome. Variables were sequentially eliminated to develop the ProVent 14 model. This model was then generated in the validation cohort. A simplified prognostic scoring rule (ProVent 14 Score) using categorical variables was created in the development cohort and then tested in the validation cohort. Model discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Four hundred ninety-one patients and 245 patients were included in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The most parsimonious model included age, platelet count, requirement for vasopressors, requirement for hemodialysis, and nontrauma admission. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve for the ProVent 14 model using continuous variables was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.76-0.83) in the development cohort and 0.78 (95% CI, 0.72-0.83) in the validation cohort. The ProVent 14 Score categorized age at 50 and 65 years old and platelet count at 100×10(9)/L and had similar discrimination as the ProVent 14 model in both cohorts. Using clinical variables available on day 14 of mechanical ventilation, the ProVent 14 model can identify patients receiving prolonged mechanical ventilation with a high risk of mortality within 1 year.

  10. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M; Dubin, Joel A

    2015-01-01

    Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our novel medical data analytics contributes to

  11. Personalized Mortality Prediction Driven by Electronic Medical Data and a Patient Similarity Metric

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Joon; Maslove, David M.; Dubin, Joel A.

    2015-01-01

    Background Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1) to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2) to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made. Methods and Findings We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM) to an intensive care unit (ICU) database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care. Conclusions The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR) systems, our

  12. Personalized mortality prediction driven by electronic medical data and a patient similarity metric.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joon Lee

    Full Text Available Clinical outcome prediction normally employs static, one-size-fits-all models that perform well for the average patient but are sub-optimal for individual patients with unique characteristics. In the era of digital healthcare, it is feasible to dynamically personalize decision support by identifying and analyzing similar past patients, in a way that is analogous to personalized product recommendation in e-commerce. Our objectives were: 1 to prove that analyzing only similar patients leads to better outcome prediction performance than analyzing all available patients, and 2 to characterize the trade-off between training data size and the degree of similarity between the training data and the index patient for whom prediction is to be made.We deployed a cosine-similarity-based patient similarity metric (PSM to an intensive care unit (ICU database to identify patients that are most similar to each patient and subsequently to custom-build 30-day mortality prediction models. Rich clinical and administrative data from the first day in the ICU from 17,152 adult ICU admissions were analyzed. The results confirmed that using data from only a small subset of most similar patients for training improves predictive performance in comparison with using data from all available patients. The results also showed that when too few similar patients are used for training, predictive performance degrades due to the effects of small sample sizes. Our PSM-based approach outperformed well-known ICU severity of illness scores. Although the improved prediction performance is achieved at the cost of increased computational burden, Big Data technologies can help realize personalized data-driven decision support at the point of care.The present study provides crucial empirical evidence for the promising potential of personalized data-driven decision support systems. With the increasing adoption of electronic medical record (EMR systems, our novel medical data analytics

  13. Mortality risk prediction by an insurance company and long-term follow-up of 62,000 men.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric J G Sijbrands

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the predicted with the observed mortality of men who applied for life insurance, and determined the prognostic value of the risk assessment. METHODS: Long-term follow-up was available for 62,334 male applicants whose mortality risk was predicted with medical evaluation and they were assigned to five groups with increasing risk from 1 to 5. We calculated all cause standardized mortality ratios relative to the Dutch population and compared groups with Cox's regression. We compared the discriminative ability of risk assessments as indicated by a concordance index (c. RESULTS: In 844,815 person years we observed 3,433 deaths. The standardized mortality relative to the Dutch male population was 0.76 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.78. The standardized mortality ratios ranged from 0.54 in risk group 1 to 2.37 in group 5. A large number of risk factors and diseases were significantly associated with increased mortality. The algorithm of prediction was significantly, but only slightly better than summation of the number of disorders and risk factors (c-index, 0.64 versus 0.60, P<0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Men applying for insurance clearly had better survival relative to the general population. Readily available medical evaluation enabled accurate prediction of the mortality risk of large groups, but the deceased men could not have been identified with the applied prediction method.

  14. Mortality risk prediction by an insurance company and long-term follow-up of 62,000 men.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijbrands, Eric J G; Tornij, Erik; Homsma, Sietske J

    2009-01-01

    Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the predicted with the observed mortality of men who applied for life insurance, and determined the prognostic value of the risk assessment. Long-term follow-up was available for 62,334 male applicants whose mortality risk was predicted with medical evaluation and they were assigned to five groups with increasing risk from 1 to 5. We calculated all cause standardized mortality ratios relative to the Dutch population and compared groups with Cox's regression. We compared the discriminative ability of risk assessments as indicated by a concordance index (c). In 844,815 person years we observed 3,433 deaths. The standardized mortality relative to the Dutch male population was 0.76 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.78). The standardized mortality ratios ranged from 0.54 in risk group 1 to 2.37 in group 5. A large number of risk factors and diseases were significantly associated with increased mortality. The algorithm of prediction was significantly, but only slightly better than summation of the number of disorders and risk factors (c-index, 0.64 versus 0.60, Psurvival relative to the general population. Readily available medical evaluation enabled accurate prediction of the mortality risk of large groups, but the deceased men could not have been identified with the applied prediction method.

  15. Brain Network Modularity Predicts Exercise-Related Executive Function Gains in Older Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pauline L. Baniqued

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent work suggests that the brain can be conceptualized as a network comprised of groups of sub-networks or modules. The extent of segregation between modules can be quantified with a modularity metric, where networks with high modularity have dense connections within modules and sparser connections between modules. Previous work has shown that higher modularity predicts greater improvements after cognitive training in patients with traumatic brain injury and in healthy older and young adults. It is not known, however, whether modularity can also predict cognitive gains after a physical exercise intervention. Here, we quantified modularity in older adults (N = 128, mean age = 64.74 who underwent one of the following interventions for 6 months (NCT01472744 on ClinicalTrials.gov: (1 aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking (Walk, (2 aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking plus nutritional supplement (Walk+, (3 stretching, strengthening and stability (SSS, or (4 dance instruction. After the intervention, the Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups showed gains in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF, with larger effects in both walking groups compared to the SSS and Dance groups. The Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups also improved in executive function (EF as measured by reasoning, working memory, and task-switching tests. In the Walk, Walk+, and SSS groups that improved in EF, higher baseline modularity was positively related to EF gains, even after controlling for age, in-scanner motion and baseline EF. No relationship between modularity and EF gains was observed in the Dance group, which did not show training-related gains in CRF or EF control. These results are consistent with previous studies demonstrating that individuals with a more modular brain network organization are more responsive to cognitive training. These findings suggest that the predictive power of modularity may be generalizable across interventions aimed to enhance aspects of cognition and

  16. Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kimmel Marek

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

  17. Two-Step Screening for Depressive Symptoms and Prediction of Mortality in Patients With Heart Failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Kyoung Suk; Moser, Debra K; Pelter, Michele; Biddle, Martha J; Dracup, Kathleen

    2017-05-01

    Comorbid depression in patients with heart failure is associated with increased risk for death. In order to effectively identify depressed patients with cardiac disease, the American Heart Association suggests a 2-step screening method: administering the 2-item Patient Health Questionnaire first and then the 9-item Patient Health Questionnaire. However, whether the 2-step method is better for predicting poor prognosis in heart failure than is either the 2-item or the 9-item tool alone is not known. To determine whether the 2-step method is better than either the 2-item or the 9-item questionnaire alone for predicting all-cause mortality in heart failure. During a 2-year period, 562 patients with heart failure were assessed for depression by using the 2-step method. With the 2-step method, results are considered positive if patients endorse either depressed mood or anhedonia on the 2-item screen and have scores of 10 or higher on the 9-item screen. Screening results with the 2-step method were not associated with all-cause mortality. Patients with scores positive for depression on either the 2-item or 9-item screen alone had 53% and 60% greater risk, respectively, for all-cause death than did patients with scores negative for depression after adjustments for covariates (hazard ratio, 1.530; 95% CI, 1.029-2.274 for the 2-item screen; hazard ratio, 1.603; 95% CI, 1.079-2.383 for the 9-item screen). The 2-step method has no clear advantages compared with the 2-item screen alone or the 9-item screen alone for predicting adverse prognostic effects of depressive symptoms in heart failure. ©2017 American Association of Critical-Care Nurses.

  18. Early Standard Electroencephalogram Abnormalities Predict Mortality in Septic Intensive Care Unit Patients.

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    Eric Azabou

    Full Text Available Sepsis is associated with increased mortality, delirium and long-term cognitive impairment in intensive care unit (ICU patients. Electroencephalogram (EEG abnormalities occurring at the acute stage of sepsis may correlate with severity of brain dysfunction. Predictive value of early standard EEG abnormalities for mortality in ICU septic patients remains to be assessed.In this prospective, single center, observational study, standard EEG was performed, analyzed and classified according to both Synek and Young EEG scales, in consecutive patients acutely admitted in ICU for sepsis. Delirium, coma and the level of sedation were assessed at the time of EEG recording; and duration of sedation, occurrence of in-ICU delirium or death were assessed during follow-up. Adjusted analyses were carried out using multiple logistic regression.One hundred ten patients were included, mean age 63.8 (±18.1 years, median SAPS-II score 38 (29-55. At the time of EEG recording, 46 patients (42% were sedated and 22 (20% suffered from delirium. Overall, 54 patients (49% developed delirium, of which 32 (29% in the days after EEG recording. 23 (21% patients died in the ICU. Absence of EEG reactivity was observed in 27 patients (25%, periodic discharges (PDs in 21 (19% and electrographic seizures (ESZ in 17 (15%. ICU mortality was independently associated with a delta-predominant background (OR: 3.36; 95% CI [1.08 to 10.4], absence of EEG reactivity (OR: 4.44; 95% CI [1.37-14.3], PDs (OR: 3.24; 95% CI [1.03 to 10.2], Synek grade ≥ 3 (OR: 5.35; 95% CI [1.66-17.2] and Young grade > 1 (OR: 3.44; 95% CI [1.09-10.8] after adjustment to Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS-II at admission and level of sedation. Delirium at the time of EEG was associated with ESZ in non-sedated patients (32% vs 10%, p = 0.037; with Synek grade ≥ 3 (36% vs 7%, p 1 (36% vs 17%, p1 (58% vs 17%, p = 0.0001.In this prospective cohort of 110 septic ICU patients, early standard EEG was

  19. Fat oxidation at rest predicts peak fat oxidation during exercise and metabolic phenotype in overweight men

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rosenkilde, M; Nordby, P; Nielsen, L B

    2010-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To elucidate if fat oxidation at rest predicts peak fat oxidation during exercise and/or metabolic phenotype in moderately overweight, sedentary men. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study.Subjects:We measured respiratory exchange ratio (RER) at rest in 44 moderately overweight, normotensive...... the International Diabetes Federation criteria, we found that there was a lower accumulation of metabolic risk factors in L-RER than in H-RER (1.6 vs 3.5, P=0.028), and no subjects in L-RER and four of eight subjects in H-RER had the metabolic syndrome. Resting RER was positively correlated with plasma...... triglycerides (Pmetabolic...

  20. Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

    2012-01-01

    Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

  1. A comparison of the Fishbein and Ajzen and the Triandis attitudinal models for the prediction of exercise intention and behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valois, P; Desharnais, R; Godin, G

    1988-10-01

    The main purpose of the study was to compare the efficiency of the Fishbein and Ajzen and the Triandis models to predict (1) the intention to participate regularly in some physical activities during free time within a 3-week period and (2) the exercise behavior within these 3 weeks among a group of 166 subjects, aged 22 to 65 years. Our results show that the Triandis model was as efficient as the Fishbein and Ajzen model in predicting the exercise behavior. However, the results obtained from the Triandis model demonstrate the importance of the habit of exercising in predicting the exercise behavior. Moreover, the Triandis model was superior to the Fishbein and Ajzen model in explaining behavioral intention. Of particular interest was the salience of the affective, social, and personal belief components of the Triandis model. In addition, from a practical perspective, this comparative study showed that (1) to exercise regularly is perceived as hard work, and (2) individuals believe that it is their own responsibility to exercise or not to exercise.

  2. Increased non-Gaussianity of heart rate variability predicts cardiac mortality after an acute myocardial infarction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junichiro eHayano

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available Non-Gaussianity index (λ is a new index of heart rate variability (HRV that characterizes increased probability of the large heart rate deviations from its trend. A previous study has reported that increased λ is an independent mortality predictor among patients with chronic heart failure. The present study examined predictive value of λ in patients after acute myocardial infarction (AMI. Among 670 post-AMI patients, we performed 24-hr Holter monitoring to assess λ and other HRV predictors, including standard deviation of normal-to-normal interval, very-low frequency power, scaling exponent α1 of detrended fluctuation analysis, deceleration capacity, and heart rate turbulence (HRT. At baseline, λ was not correlated substantially with other HRV indices (|r| <0.4 with either indices and was decreased in patients taking β-blockers (P = 0.04. During a median follow up period of 25 months, 45 (6.7% patients died (32 cardiac and 13 non-cardiac and 39 recurrent nonfatal AMI occurred among survivors. While all of these HRV indices but λ were significant predictors of both cardiac and non-cardiac deaths, increased λ predicted exclusively cardiac death (RR [95% CI], 1.6 [1.3-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P <0.0001. The predictive power of increased λ was significant even after adjustments for clinical risk factors, such as age, diabetes, left ventricular function, renal function, prior AMI, heart failure, and stroke, Killip class, and treatment ([95% CI], 1.4 [1.1-2.0] per 1 SD increment, P = 0.01. The prognostic power of increased λ for cardiac death was also independent of all other HRV indices and the combination of increased λ and abnormal HRT provided the best predictive model for cardiac death. Neither λ nor other HRV indices was an independent predictor of AMI recurrence. Among post-AMI patients, increased λ is associated exclusively with increased cardiac mortality risk and its predictive power is independent of clinical risk factors and

  3. Primary Spinal Tumor Mortality Score (PSTMS): a novel scoring system for predicting poor survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szövérfi, Zsolt; Lazary, Aron; Bozsódi, Árpád; Klemencsics, István; Éltes, Péter E; Varga, Péter Pál

    2014-11-01

    Although the surgical and oncological therapies of primary spinal tumors (PSTs) have changed significantly over the last few decades, the prognosis of this rare disease is still poor. The decision-making process in the multidisciplinary management is handicapped by the lack of large-scale population-based prognostic studies. The objective of the present study was to investigate preoperative factors associated with PST mortality and to develop a predictive scoring system of poor survival. This is a large-scale ambispective cohort study. The study included 323 consecutive patients with PSTs, treated surgically over an 18-year period at a tertiary care spine referral center for a population of 10 million. Survival was the outcome measure. Patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=273) and a validation cohort (n=50). In the training cohort, 12 preoperative factors were investigated using Cox proportional hazard models. Based on the mortality-related variables, a simple scoring system of mortality was created, and three groups of patients were identified. Kaplan-Meier and log-rank analyses were used to compare the survival in the three groups. The model performance was assessed by measuring the discriminative ability (c-index) of the model and by applying a pseudo-R(2) goodness-of-fit test (Nagelkerke R(2), RN(2)). Internal validation was performed using bootstrapping in the training cohort and assessing the discrimination and explained variation of the model in the validation cohort. Patient age, spinal region, tumor grade, spinal pain, motor deficit, and myelopathy/cauda equina syndrome were significantly associated with poor survival in the multivariate analysis (psurvival (psurvival in all types of PST patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. A Comparison of Intensive Care Unit Mortality Prediction Models through the Use of Data Mining Techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sujin; Kim, Woojae; Park, Rae Woong

    2011-12-01

    The intensive care environment generates a wealth of critical care data suited to developing a well-calibrated prediction tool. This study was done to develop an intensive care unit (ICU) mortality prediction model built on University of Kentucky Hospital (UKH)'s data and to assess whether the performance of various data mining techniques, such as the artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and decision trees (DT), outperform the conventional logistic regression (LR) statistical model. The models were built on ICU data collected regarding 38,474 admissions to the UKH between January 1998 and September 2007. The first 24 hours of the ICU admission data were used, including patient demographics, admission information, physiology data, chronic health items, and outcome information. Only 15 study variables were identified as significant for inclusion in the model development. The DT algorithm slightly outperformed (AUC, 0.892) the other data mining techniques, followed by the ANN (AUC, 0.874), and SVM (AUC, 0.876), compared to that of the APACHE III performance (AUC, 0.871). With fewer variables needed, the machine learning algorithms that we developed were proven to be as good as the conventional APACHE III prediction.

  5. A prognostic scoring system for arm exercise stress testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yan; Xian, Hong; Chandiramani, Pooja; Bainter, Emily; Wan, Leping; Martin, Wade H

    2016-01-01

    Arm exercise stress testing may be an equivalent or better predictor of mortality outcome than pharmacological stress imaging for the ≥50% for patients unable to perform leg exercise. Thus, our objective was to develop an arm exercise ECG stress test scoring system, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, for predicting outcome in these individuals. In this retrospective observational cohort study, arm exercise ECG stress tests were performed in 443 consecutive veterans aged 64.1 (11.1) years. (mean (SD)) between 1997 and 2002. From multivariate Cox models, arm exercise scores were developed for prediction of 5-year and 12-year all-cause and cardiovascular mortality and 5-year cardiovascular mortality or myocardial infarction (MI). Arm exercise capacity in resting metabolic equivalents (METs), 1 min heart rate recovery (HRR) and ST segment depression ≥1 mm were the stress test variables independently associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality by step-wise Cox analysis (all pArm exercise scores for the other outcome end points yielded C-statistic values of 0.77-0.79 before and 0.82-0.86 after adjustment for significant covariates versus 0.64-0.72 for best fit pharmacological myocardial perfusion imaging models in a cohort of 1730 veterans who were evaluated over the same time period. Arm exercise scores, analogous to the Duke Treadmill Score, have good power for prediction of mortality or MI in patients who cannot perform leg exercise.

  6. Missing Value Imputation Improves Mortality Risk Prediction Following Cardiac Surgery: An Investigation of an Australian Patient Cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Md Nazmul; Reid, Christopher M; Tran, Lavinia; Cochrane, Andrew; Billah, Baki

    2017-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of missing values on the prediction performance of the model predicting 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery as an example. Information from 83,309 eligible patients, who underwent cardiac surgery, recorded in the Australia and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database registry between 2001 and 2014, was used. An existing 30-day mortality risk prediction model developed from ANZSCTS database was re-estimated using the complete cases (CC) analysis and using multiple imputation (MI) analysis. Agreement between the risks generated by the CC and MI analysis approaches was assessed by the Bland-Altman method. Performances of the two models were compared. One or more missing predictor variables were present in 15.8% of the patients in the dataset. The Bland-Altman plot demonstrated significant disagreement between the risk scores (prisk of mortality. Compared to CC analysis, MI analysis resulted in an average of 8.5% decrease in standard error, a measure of uncertainty. The MI model provided better prediction of mortality risk (observed: 2.69%; MI: 2.63% versus CC: 2.37%, Pvalues improved the 30-day mortality risk prediction following cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Circulating Biologically Active Adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) Predicts Hemodynamic Support Requirement and Mortality During Sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caironi, Pietro; Latini, Roberto; Struck, Joachim; Hartmann, Oliver; Bergmann, Andreas; Maggio, Giuseppe; Cavana, Marco; Tognoni, Gianni; Pesenti, Antonio; Gattinoni, Luciano; Masson, Serge

    2017-08-01

    The biological role of adrenomedullin (ADM), a hormone involved in hemodynamic homeostasis, is controversial in sepsis because administration of either the peptide or an antibody against it may be beneficial. Plasma biologically active ADM (bio-ADM) was assessed on days 1, 2, and 7 after randomization of 956 patients with sepsis or septic shock to albumin or crystalloids for fluid resuscitation in the multicenter Albumin Italian Outcome Sepsis trial. We tested the association of bio-ADM and its time-dependent variation with fluid therapy, vasopressor administration, organ failures, and mortality. Plasma bio-ADM on day 1 (median [Q1-Q3], 110 [59-198] pg/mL) was higher in patients with septic shock, associated with 90-day mortality, multiple organ failures and the average extent of hemodynamic support therapy (fluids and vasopressors), and serum lactate time course over the first week. Moreover, it predicted incident cardiovascular dysfunction in patients without shock at enrollment (OR [95% CI], 1.9 [1.4-2.5]; P sepsis, the circulating, biologically active form of ADM may help individualizing hemodynamic support therapy, while avoiding harmful effects. Its possible pathophysiologic role makes bio-ADM a potential candidate for future targeted therapies. ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT00707122. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  9. Pyogenic liver abscess: current status and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Czerwonko, Matías E; Huespe, Pablo; Bertone, Santiago; Pellegrini, Pablo; Mazza, Oscar; Pekolj, Juan; de Santibañes, Eduardo; Hyon, Sung Ho; de Santibañes, Martín

    2016-12-01

    In times of modern surgery, transplantation and percutaneous techniques, pyogenic liver abscess (PLA) has essentially become a problem of biliary or iatrogenic origin. In the current scenario, diagnostic approach, clinical behavior and therapeutic outcomes have not been profoundly studied. This study analyzes the clinical and microbiological features, diagnostic methods, therapeutic management and predictive factors for recurrence and mortality of first episodes of PLA. A retrospective single-center study was conducted including 142 patients admitted to the Hospital Italiano de Buenos Aires, between 2005 and 2015 with first episodes of PLA. Prevailing identifiable causes were biliary diseases (47.9%) followed by non-biliary percutaneous procedures (NBIPLA, 15.5%). Seventeen patients (12%) were liver recipients. Eleven patients (7.8%) died and 18 patients (13.7%) had recurrence in the first year of follow up. The isolation of multiresistant organisms (p = 0.041) and a history of cholangitis (p 5 mg/dL (p = 0.022) and bilateral involvement (p = 0.014) in the multivariate analysis. NBPLA and PLA after transplantation may be increasing among the population of PLA in referral centers. History of cholangitis is a strong predictor for recurrence. Mortality is associated to hiperbilirrubinemia and anatomical distribution of the lesions. Copyright © 2016 International Hepato-Pancreato-Biliary Association Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Distribution, size, shape, growth potential and extent of abdominal aortic calcified deposits predict mortality in postmenopausal women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Mads; Ganz, Melanie; Lauze, Francois Bernard

    2010-01-01

    Background Aortic calcification is a major risk factor for death from cardiovascular disease. We investigated the relationship between mortality and the composite markers of number, size, morphology and distribution of calcified plaques in the lumbar aorta. Methods 308 postmenopausal women aged 48...... from the Framingham Heart Study cohorts. Results All four scoring systems showed increasing age, smoking, and raised triglyceride levels were the main predictors of mortality after adjustment for all other metabolic and physical parameters. The SCORE card and the Framingham score resulted...... the best predictive power for identification of patients at risk of mortality, with a hazard ratio of 15.6 (p predicts risk of mortality, but also the distribution, shape...

  11. Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in type 1 diabetic patients from Fyn County, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grauslund, J; Green, A; Sjølie, A K

    2008-01-01

    .01 (95% CI 0.72-1.42) and 2.04 (1.43-2.91) for patients with non-proliferative and proliferative retinopathy respectively at baseline compared with patients with no retinopathy. After adjusting for proteinuria, HR among patients with proliferative retinopathy lost statistical significance, but still...... remained 1.48 (95% CI 0.98-2.23). The 10 year survival rate of patients who had proliferative retinopathy as well as proteinuria at baseline was 22.2% and significantly lower (pproteinuria only (70.3%), proliferative retinopathy only (79.0%) or neither (86.6%). CONCLUSIONS....../INTERPRETATION: Proliferative retinopathy and proteinuria predict mortality rate in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic patients. In combination they act even more strongly. Non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy did not affect survival rate....

  12. Citric Acid Cycle Metabolites Predict the Severity of Myocardial Stunning and Mortality in Newborn Pigs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hyldebrandt, Janus Adler; Støttrup, Nicolaj Brejnholt; Frederiksen, Christian Alcaraz

    2016-01-01

    the presence of myocardial stunning and predicts mortality in acute noninfarct right ventricular heart failure in newborn pigs. This phenomenon occurs independently of the type of inotrope, suggesting that citric acid cycle intermediates represent potential markers of acute noninfarct heart failure.......OBJECTIVES: Myocardial infarction and chronic heart failure induce specific metabolic changes in the neonatal myocardium that are closely correlated to outcome. The aim of this study was to examine the metabolic responses to noninfarct heart failure and inotropic treatments in the newborn heart......, which so far are undetermined. DESIGN: A total of 28 newborn pigs were instrumented with a microdialysis catheter in the right ventricle, and intercellular citric acid cycle intermediates and adenosine metabolite concentrations were determined at 20-minute intervals. Stunning was induced by 10 cycles...

  13. Utility of a Non-Exercise VO2max Prediction Model for Designing Ramp Test Protocols.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cunha, F A; Midgley, A; Montenegro, R; Vasconcellos, F; Farinatti, P

    2015-10-01

    This study investigated the validity of determining the final work rates of cycling and walking ramp-incremented maximal cardiopulmonary exercise tests (CPETs) using a non-exercise model to predict maximal oxygen uptake VO2max and the American College of Sports Medicine ACSM's metabolic equations. The validity of using this methodology to elicit the recommended test duration of between 8 and 12 min was then evaluated. First, 83 subjects visited the laboratory once to perform a cycling (n=49) or walking (n=34) CPET to investigate the validity of the methodology. Second, 25 subjects (cycling group: n=13; walking group: n=12) performed a CPET on 2 separate days to test the reliability of CPET outcomes. Observed VO2max was 1.0 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1) lower than predicted in the cycling CPET (P=0.001) and 1.4 ml·kg(-1)·min(-1) lower in the walking CPET (P=0.001). Only one of the 133 conducted CPETs was outside the test duration range of 8-12 min. Test-retest reliability was high for all CPET outcomes, with intraclass correlation coefficients of 0.90 to 0.99. In conclusion, the non-exercise model is a valid and reliable method for establishing the final work rate of cycling and walking CPETs for eliciting test durations of between 8 and 12 min. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

  14. Low free testosterone predicts mortality from cardiovascular disease but not other causes: the Health in Men Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hyde, Zoë; Norman, Paul E; Flicker, Leon; Hankey, Graeme J; Almeida, Osvaldo P; McCaul, Kieran A; Chubb, S A Paul; Yeap, Bu B

    2012-01-01

    Low testosterone is associated with all-cause mortality, but the relationship with cause-specific mortality is uncertain. Our objective was to explore associations between testosterone and its related hormones and cause-specific mortality. This was a population-based cohort study. Demographic and clinical predictors of mortality, and testosterone, SHBG, and LH were measured from 2001-2004 in 3637 community-dwelling men aged 70-88 yr (mean, 77 yr). Cause of death was obtained via electronic record linkage until December 31, 2008. During a mean follow-up period of 5.1 yr, there were 605 deaths. Of these, 207 [34.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 30.4-38.1%] were due to cardiovascular disease (CVD), 231 to cancer (38.2%; 95% CI = 34.3-42.1%), 130 to respiratory diseases (21.5%; 95% CI = 18.2-24.8%), and 76 to other causes (12.6%; 95% CI = 9.9-15.2%). There were 39 deaths attributable to both cancer and respiratory diseases. Lower free testosterone (hazard ratio = 1.62; 95% CI = 1.20-2.19, for 100 vs. 280 pmol/liter), and higher SHBG and LH levels were associated with all-cause mortality. In cause-specific analyses, lower free testosterone (sub-hazard ratio = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.12-2.62, for 100 vs. 280 pmol/liter) and higher LH predicted CVD mortality, while higher SHBG predicted non-CVD mortality. Higher total testosterone and free testosterone levels (sub-hazard ratio = 1.96; 95% CI = 1.14-3.36, for 400 vs. 280 pmol/liter) were associated with mortality from lung cancer. Low testosterone predicts mortality from CVD but is not associated with death from other causes. Prevention of androgen deficiency might improve cardiovascular outcomes but is unlikely to affect longevity otherwise.

  15. Predictive capacity of three comorbidity indices in estimating mortality after surgery for colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hines, Robert B; Chatla, Chakrapani; Bumpers, Harvey L; Waterbor, John W; McGwin, Gerald; Funkhouser, Ellen; Coffey, Christopher S; Posey, James; Manne, Upender

    2009-09-10

    Although, for patients with cancer, comorbidity can affect the timing of cancer detection, treatment, and prognosis, there is little information relating to the question of whether the choice of comorbidity index affects the results of studies. Therefore, to compare the association of comorbidity with mortality after surgery for colon cancer, this study evaluated the Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27), the National Institute on Aging (NIA) and National Cancer Institute (NCI) Comorbidity Index, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI). The study population consisted of colon cancer patients (N = 496) who underwent surgery at the University of Alabama at Birmingham Hospital from 1981 to 2002. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were obtained using the method of Cox proportional hazards for the three comorbidity indices in predicting overall and colon cancer-specific mortality. The point estimates obtained for comorbidity and other risk factors across the three models were compared. For each index, the highest comorbidity burden was significantly associated with poorer overall survival (ACE-27: HR = 1.63; 95% CI, 1.24 to 2.15; NIA/NCI: HR = 1.83; 95% CI, 1.29 to 2.61; CCI: HR = 1.46; 95% CI, 1.14 to 1.88) as well as colon cancer-specific survival. For the other risk factors, there was little variation in the point estimates across the three models. The results obtained from these three indices were strikingly similar. For patients with severe comorbidity, all three indices were statistically significant in predicting shorter survival after surgery for colon cancer.

  16. Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Arrais Rocha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background: 30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes. Objective: This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT. Methods: Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD, ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping. Conclusion: We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

  17. Stress hormones at rest and following exercise testing predict coronary artery disease severity and outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Popovic, Dejana; Damjanovic, Svetozar; Djordjevic, Tea; Martic, Dejana; Ignjatovic, Svetlana; Milinkovic, Neda; Banovic, Marko; Lasica, Ratko; Petrovic, Milan; Guazzi, Marco; Arena, Ross

    2017-09-01

    Despite considerable knowledge regarding the importance of stress in coronary artery disease (CAD) pathogenesis, its underestimation persists in routine clinical practice, in part attributable to lack of a standardized, objective assessment. The current study examined the ability of stress hormones to predict CAD severity and prognosis at basal conditions as well as during and following an exertional stimulus. Forty Caucasian subjects with significant coronary artery lesions (≥50%) were included. Within 2 months of coronary angiography, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) on a recumbent ergometer was performed in conjunction with stress echocardiography (SE). At rest, peak and after 3 min of recovery following CPET, plasma levels of cortisol, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and NT-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) were measured by immunoassay sandwich technique, radioimmunoassay, and radioimmunometric technique, respectively. Subjects were subsequently followed a mean of 32 ± 10 months. Mean ejection fraction was 56.7 ± 9.6%. Subjects with 1-2 stenotic coronary arteries (SCA) demonstrated a significantly lower plasma cortisol levels during CPET compared to those with 3-SCA (p  .05). Among CPET, SE, and hormonal parameters, cortisol at rest and during CPET recovery demonstrated the best predictive value in distinguishing between 1-, 2-, and 3-SCA [area under ROC curve 0.75 and 0.77 (SE = 0.11, 0.10; p = .043, .04) for rest and recovery, respectively]. ΔCortisol peak/rest predicted cumulative cardiac events (area under ROC curve 0.75, SE = 0.10, p = .049). Cortisol at rest and following an exercise test holds predictive value for CAD severity and prognosis, further demonstrating a link between stress and unwanted cardiac events.

  18. Nurses and physicians in a medical admission unit can accurately predict mortality of acutely admitted patients: a prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikkel Brabrand

    Full Text Available There exist several risk stratification systems for predicting mortality of emergency patients. However, some are complex in clinical use and others have been developed using suboptimal methodology. The objective was to evaluate the capability of the staff at a medical admission unit (MAU to use clinical intuition to predict in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients.This is an observational prospective cohort study of adult patients (15 years or older admitted to a MAU at a regional teaching hospital. The nursing staff and physicians predicted in-hospital mortality upon the patients' arrival. We calculated discriminatory power as the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUROC and accuracy of prediction (calibration by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test.We had a total of 2,848 admissions (2,463 patients. 89 (3.1% died while admitted. The nursing staff assessed 2,404 admissions and predicted mortality in 1,820 (63.9%. AUROC was 0.823 (95% CI: 0.762-0.884 and calibration poor. Physicians assessed 738 admissions and predicted mortality in 734 (25.8% of all admissions. AUROC was 0.761 (95% CI: 0.657-0.864 and calibration poor. AUROC and calibration increased with experience. When nursing staff and physicians were in agreement (±5%, discriminatory power was very high, 0.898 (95% CI: 0.773-1.000, and calibration almost perfect. Combining an objective risk prediction score with staff predictions added very little.Using only clinical intuition, staff in a medical admission unit has a good ability to identify patients at increased risk of dying while admitted. When nursing staff and physicians agreed on their prediction, discriminatory power and calibration were excellent.

  19. Sarcopenia predicts readmission and mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards: a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Ming; Hu, Xiaoyi; Wang, Haozhong; Zhang, Lei; Hao, Qiukui; Dong, Birong

    2017-04-01

    The aim of this study is to assess the prevalence of sarcopenia and investigate the associations between sarcopenia and long-term mortality and readmission in a population of elderly inpatients in acute care wards. We conducted a prospective observational study in the acute care wards of a teaching hospital in western China. The muscle mass was estimated according to a previously validated anthropometric equation. Handgrip strength was measured with a handheld dynamometer, and physical performance was measured via a 4 m walking test. Sarcopenia was defined according to the recommended diagnostic algorithm of the Asia Working Group for Sarcopenia. The survival status and readmission information were obtained via telephone interviews at 12, 24, and 36 months during the 3 year follow-up period following the baseline investigation. Two hundred and eighty-eight participants (mean age: 81.1 ± 6.6 years) were included. Forty-nine participants (17.0%) were identified as having sarcopenia. This condition was similar in men and women (16.9% vs. 17.5%, respectively, P = 0.915). During the 3 year follow-up period, 49 men (22.7%) and 9 women (16.4%) died (P = 0.307). The mortality of sarcopenic participants was significantly increased compared with non-sarcopenic participants (40.8% vs. 17.1%, respectively, P sarcopenia was an independent predictor of 3 year mortality (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.49; 95% confidential interval: 1.25-4.95) and readmission (adjusted hazard ratio: 1.81; 95% confidential interval: 1.17-2.80). Sarcopenia, which is evaluated by a combination of anthropometric measures, gait speed, and handgrip strength, is valuable to predict hospital readmission and long-term mortality in elderly patients in acute care wards. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Cachexia, Sarcopenia and Muscle published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the Society on Sarcopenia, Cachexia and Wasting Disorders.

  20. Use of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for evaluating severity and predicting mortality in patients with sepsis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenzaka T

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Tsuneaki Kenzaka,1 Masanobu Okayama,2 Shigehiro Kuroki,1 Miho Fukui,3 Shinsuke Yahata,3 Hiroki Hayashi,3 Akihito Kitao,3 Eiji Kajii,2 Masayoshi Hashimoto41Division of General Medicine, 2Division of Community and Family Medicine, Center for Community Medicine, Jichi Medical University School of Medicine, Shimotsuke; 3Department of General Medicine, Toyooka Public Hospital, Toyooka; 4Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, Kobe, JapanBackground: The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical usefulness of a semiquantitative procalcitonin kit for assessing severity of sepsis and early determination of mortality in affected patients.Methods: This was a prospective, observational study including 206 septic patients enrolled between June 2008 and August 2009. Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II scores were measured, along with semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations. Patients were divided into three groups based on their semiquantitative procalcitonin concentrations (group A, <2 ng/mL; group B ≥ 2 ng/mL < 10 ng/mL; group C ≥ 10 ng/mL.Results: A significant difference in DIC, SOFA, and APACHE II scores was found between group A and group C and between group B and group C (P < 0.01. Patients with severe sepsis and septic shock had significantly higher procalcitonin concentrations than did patients with less severe disease. The rate of patients with septic shock with high procalcitonin concentrations showed an upward trend. There was a significant (P < 0.01 difference between the three groups with regard to numbers of patients and rates of severe sepsis, septic shock, DIC, and mortality.Conclusion: Semiquantitative procalcitonin concentration testing can be helpful for early assessment of disease severity in patients with sepsis. Furthermore, it may also help in predicting early

  1. Ankle-brachial index: a simple way to predict mortality among patients on hemodialysis--a prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Zaida Noemy Cabrera; Pereira, Benedito Jorge; Romão, João Egidio; Makida, Sonia Cristina da Silva; Abensur, Hugo; Moyses, Rosa Maria Affonso; Elias, Rosilene Motta

    2012-01-01

    Ankle-brachial index (ABI) can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. We studied 119 patients with ESRD who had started hemodialysis three times weekly. ABI was calculated by using two oscillometric blood pressure devices simultaneously. Patients were followed until death or the end of the study. ABI was categorized in two groups normal (0.9-1.3) or abnormal (1.3). There were 33 deaths during a median follow-up of 12 months (from 3 to 24 months). Age (1 year) (hazard of ratio, 1.026; p = 0.014) and ABI abnormal (hazard ratio, 3.664; p = 0.001) were independently related to mortality in a multiple regression analysis. An easy and inexpensive technique to measure ABI was tested and showed to be significant in predicting mortality. Both low and high ABI were associated to mortality in incident patients on hemodialysis. This technique allows nephrologists to identify high-risk patients and gives the opportunity of early intervention that could alter the natural progression of this population.

  2. Ankle-Brachial Index: A Simple Way to Predict Mortality among Patients on Hemodialysis - A Prospective Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez, Zaida Noemy Cabrera; Pereira, Benedito Jorge; Romão, João Egidio; Makida, Sonia Cristina da Silva; Abensur, Hugo; Moyses, Rosa Maria Affonso; Elias, Rosilene Motta

    2012-01-01

    Background Ankle-brachial index (ABI) can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. Methodology/Principal Findings We studied 119 patients with ESRD who had started hemodialysis three times weekly. ABI was calculated by using two oscillometric blood pressure devices simultaneously. Patients were followed until death or the end of the study. ABI was categorized in two groups normal (0.9–1.3) or abnormal (1.3). There were 33 deaths during a median follow-up of 12 months (from 3 to 24 months). Age (1 year) (hazard of ratio, 1.026; p = 0.014) and ABI abnormal (hazard ratio, 3.664; p = 0.001) were independently related to mortality in a multiple regression analysis. Conclusions An easy and inexpensive technique to measure ABI was tested and showed to be significant in predicting mortality. Both low and high ABI were associated to mortality in incident patients on hemodialysis. This technique allows nephrologists to identify high-risk patients and gives the opportunity of early intervention that could alter the natural progression of this population. PMID:22860108

  3. Ankle-brachial index: a simple way to predict mortality among patients on hemodialysis--a prospective study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zaida Noemy Cabrera Jimenez

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ankle-brachial index (ABI can access peripheral artery disease and predict mortality in prevalent patients on hemodialysis. However, ABI has not yet been tested in incident patients, who present significant mortality. Typically, ABI is measured by Doppler, which is not always available, limiting its use in most patients. We therefore hypothesized that ABI, evaluated by a simplified method, can predict mortality in an incident hemodialysis population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We studied 119 patients with ESRD who had started hemodialysis three times weekly. ABI was calculated by using two oscillometric blood pressure devices simultaneously. Patients were followed until death or the end of the study. ABI was categorized in two groups normal (0.9-1.3 or abnormal (1.3. There were 33 deaths during a median follow-up of 12 months (from 3 to 24 months. Age (1 year (hazard of ratio, 1.026; p = 0.014 and ABI abnormal (hazard ratio, 3.664; p = 0.001 were independently related to mortality in a multiple regression analysis. CONCLUSIONS: An easy and inexpensive technique to measure ABI was tested and showed to be significant in predicting mortality. Both low and high ABI were associated to mortality in incident patients on hemodialysis. This technique allows nephrologists to identify high-risk patients and gives the opportunity of early intervention that could alter the natural progression of this population.

  4. Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2012-01-01

    Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

  5. Preoperative early warning scores can predict in-hospital mortality and critical care admission following emergency surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcea, Giuseppe; Ganga, Ramarao; Neal, Christopher P; Ong, Seok L; Dennison, Ashley R; Berry, David P

    2010-04-01

    EWS is frequently used to monitor acute admissions requiring emergency surgery. This study examined preoperative early warning scoring (EWS) and its ability to predict mortality and critical care admission. Postoperative EWS was also evaluated as a predictor of mortality. Preoperative EWS, age, physiologic and operative severity (POSSUM) scores, ASA grade, and serology were compared in 280 patients undergoing emergency surgery. Two hundred eighty patients were identified with a mortality of 15%. Among the physiological scoring systems, ASA grade and POSSUM scores were the best predictors of mortality (AUC values of 0.81). EWS, APACHE II, and age were the next best predictors (AUC values of 0.70). Postoperative APACHE II and EWS both predicted mortality. EWS on day 2 postoperatively was the best overall predictor of mortality of all the variables studied (AUC value of 0.83). Survival between patients with "improving or stable" EWS and those with "deteriorating or failing to improve" EWS was also found to be significantly different (P scores improve or deteriorate, is a highly significant factor in predicting survival following emergency surgery. These findings support the use of EWS in monitoring the acute surgical patient.

  6. Prediction of hospital acute myocardial infarction and heart failure 30-day mortality rates using publicly reported performance measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aaronson, David S; Bardach, Naomi S; Lin, Grace A; Chattopadhyay, Arpita; Goldman, L Elizabeth; Dudley, R Adams

    2013-01-01

    To identify an approach to summarizing publicly reported hospital performance data for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or heart failure (HF) that best predicts current year hospital mortality rates. A total of 1,868 U.S. hospitals reporting process and outcome measures for AMI and HF to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) from July 2005 to June 2006 (Year 0) and July 2006 to June 2007 (Year 1). Observational cohort study measuring the percentage variation in Year 1 hospital 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate explained by denominator-based weighted composite scores summarizing hospital Year 0 performance. Data were prospectively collected from hospitalcompare.gov. Percentage variation in Year 1 mortality was best explained by mortality rate alone in Year 0 over other composites including process performance. If only Year 0 mortality rates were reported, and consumers using hospitals in the highest decile of mortality instead chose hospitals in the lowest decile of mortality rate, the number of deaths at 30 days that potentially could have been avoided was 1.31 per 100 patients for AMI and 2.12 for HF (p < .001). Public reports focused on 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate may more directly address policymakers' goals of facilitating consumer identification of hospitals with better outcomes. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

  7. Prediction of hospital mortality by changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR).

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Berzan, E

    2015-03-01

    Deterioration of physiological or laboratory variables may provide important prognostic information. We have studied whether a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) value calculated using the (Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula) over the hospital admission, would have predictive value. An analysis was performed on all emergency medical hospital episodes (N = 61964) admitted between 1 January 2002 and 31 December 2011. A stepwise logistic regression model examined the relationship between mortality and change in renal function from admission to discharge. The fully adjusted Odds Ratios (OR) for 5 classes of GFR deterioration showed a stepwise increased risk of 30-day death with OR\\'s of 1.42 (95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), 1.59 (1.27, 1.99), 2.71 (2.24, 3.27), 5.56 (4.54, 6.81) and 11.9 (9.0, 15.6) respectively. The change in eGFR during a clinical episode, following an emergency medical admission, powerfully predicts the outcome.

  8. Multimarker proteomic profiling for the prediction of cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilles Lemesle

    Full Text Available Risk stratification of patients with systolic chronic heart failure (HF is critical to better identify those who may benefit from invasive therapeutic strategies such as cardiac transplantation. Proteomics has been used to provide prognostic information in various diseases. Our aim was to investigate the potential value of plasma proteomic profiling for risk stratification in HF. A proteomic profiling using surface enhanced laser desorption ionization - time of flight - mass spectrometry was performed in a case/control discovery population of 198 patients with systolic HF (left ventricular ejection fraction <45%: 99 patients who died from cardiovascular cause within 3 years and 99 patients alive at 3 years. Proteomic scores predicting cardiovascular death were developed using 3 regression methods: support vector machine, sparse partial least square discriminant analysis, and lasso logistic regression. Forty two ion m/z peaks were differentially intense between cases and controls in the discovery population and were used to develop proteomic scores. In the validation population, score levels were higher in patients who subsequently died within 3 years. Similar areas under the curves (0.66 - 0.68 were observed for the 3 methods. After adjustment on confounders, proteomic scores remained significantly associated with cardiovascular mortality. Use of the proteomic scores allowed a significant improvement in discrimination of HF patients as determined by integrated discrimination improvement and net reclassification improvement indexes. In conclusion, proteomic analysis of plasma proteins may help to improve risk prediction in HF patients.

  9. The use of tonometry to predict mortality in patients undergoing abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, C V; Halliday, M I; Hood, J M; Rowlands, B J; Barros D'Sa, A A

    1998-01-01

    To assess the reliability of intramucosal pH (pHi) of the sigmoid colon, IL-6 concentration and the APACHE II score in predicting outcome in patients undergoing elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair. Prospective study. In 42 patients, measurements were made of the sigmoid pHi with the silicone tonometer and plasma IL-6 by enzyme linked immuno-sorbent assay (ELISA). The daily postoperative APACHE II scores were also calculated. In 29 patients a preoperative left ventricular ejection fraction was determined by gated radionuclide angiography. Four out of 42 patients who were studied died. The lowest perioperative pHi, the peak postoperative IL-6 concentration and APACHE II scores were significantly different in the survivors in comparison to the non-survivors. In the non-survivors, the fall in pHi preceded the time of patient's demise by at least 4 days. Significant correlations were observed between changes in pHi, IL-6 and APACHE II. Using receiver operating characteristic curves, pHi was shown to be the most predictive of mortality compared to the other variables. The simplicity, speed and practicality of using the tonometer adds to its superiority over the latter measurements. No relationship was found between ventricular ejection fraction, pHi and outcome. Although the number of patients is small, these results support pHi as a valuable predictor of outcome and also suggest a role for the gut in initiating the IL-6 and physiological responses.

  10. The predictive value of gastric reactance for postoperative morbidity and mortality in cardiac surgery patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltran, N E; Sanchez-Miranda, G; Godinez, M M; Diaz, U; Sacristan, E

    2010-11-01

    No useful method to directly monitor the level of end organ tissue injury is currently available clinically. Gastric reactance has been proposed to measure changes in a tissue structure caused by ischemia. The purpose of this study was to assess whether gastric reactance is a reliable, clinically relevant predictor of complications and a potentially useful tool to assess hypoperfusion in cardiovascular surgery patients. The value of gastric reactance measurements, standard hemodynamic and regional perfusion variables, and scores to predict postoperative complications were compared in 55 higher risk cardiovascular surgery patients with cardiopulmonary bypass. Low frequency gastric reactance, X(L), had a significant predictive value of postoperative persistent shock requiring more than 48 h of vasopressors and associated complications, before, during and after surgery (p 26) before surgery had a significantly higher incidence of complications, higher mortality and more days in the ICU than patients with a low reactance (X(L) < 13). X(L) was found to be a reliable and clinically relevant measurement. These results justify further clinical research to explore how this information may be used to improve patient management.

  11. Predicting the cumulative risk of death during hospitalization by modeling weekend, weekday and diurnal mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coiera, Enrico; Wang, Ying; Magrabi, Farah; Concha, Oscar Perez; Gallego, Blanca; Runciman, William

    2014-05-21

    Current prognostic models factor in patient and disease specific variables but do not consider cumulative risks of hospitalization over time. We developed risk models of the likelihood of death associated with cumulative exposure to hospitalization, based on time-varying risks of hospitalization over any given day, as well as day of the week. Model performance was evaluated alone, and in combination with simple disease-specific models. Patients admitted between 2000 and 2006 from 501 public and private hospitals in NSW, Australia were used for training and 2007 data for evaluation. The impact of hospital care delivered over different days of the week and or times of the day was modeled by separating hospitalization risk into 21 separate time periods (morning, day, night across the days of the week). Three models were developed to predict death up to 7-days post-discharge: 1/a simple background risk model using age, gender; 2/a time-varying risk model for exposure to hospitalization (admission time, days in hospital); 3/disease specific models (Charlson co-morbidity index, DRG). Combining these three generated a full model. Models were evaluated by accuracy, AUC, Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. There was a clear diurnal rhythm to hospital mortality in the data set, peaking in the evening, as well as the well-known 'weekend-effect' where mortality peaks with weekend admissions. Individual models had modest performance on the test data set (AUC 0.71, 0.79 and 0.79 respectively). The combined model which included time-varying risk however yielded an average AUC of 0.92. This model performed best for stays up to 7-days (93% of admissions), peaking at days 3 to 5 (AUC 0.94). Risks of hospitalization vary not just with the day of the week but also time of the day, and can be used to make predictions about the cumulative risk of death associated with an individual's hospitalization. Combining disease specific models with such time varying- estimates appears to

  12. Predictive Value of Carotid Distensibility Coefficient for Cardiovascular Diseases and All-Cause Mortality: A Meta-Analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuang Yuan

    Full Text Available The aim of the present study is to determine the pooled predictive value of carotid distensibility coefficient (DC for cardiovascular (CV diseases and all-cause mortality.Arterial stiffness is associated with future CV events. Aortic pulse wave velocity is a commonly used predictor for CV diseases and all-cause mortality; however, its assessment requires specific devices and is not always applicable in all patients. In addition to the aortic artery, the carotid artery is also susceptible to atherosclerosis, and is highly accessible because of the surficial property. Thus, carotid DC, which indicates the intrinsic local stiffness of the carotid artery and may be determined using ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging, is of interest for the prediction. However, the role of carotid DC in the prediction of CV diseases and all-cause mortality has not been thoroughly characterized, and the pooled predictive value of carotid DC remains unclear.A meta-analysis, which included 11 longitudinal studies with 20361 subjects, was performed.Carotid DC significantly predicted future total CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality. The pooled risk ratios (RRs of CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality were 1.19 (1.06-1.35, 95%CI, 9 studies with 18993 subjects, 1.09 (1.01-1.18, 95%CI, 2 studies with 2550 subjects and 1.65 (1.15-2.37, 95%CI, 6 studies with 3619 subjects, respectively, for the subjects who had the lowest quartile of DC compared with their counterparts who had higher quartiles. For CV events, CV mortality and all-cause mortality, a decrease in DC of 1 SD increased the risk by 13%, 6% and 41% respectively, whereas a decrease in DC of 1 unit increased the risk by 3%, 1% and 6% respectively.Carotid DC is a significant predictor of future CV diseases and all-cause mortality, which may facilitate the identification of high-risk patients for the early diagnosis and prompt treatment of CV diseases.

  13. Obesity surgery mortality risk score for the prediction of complications after laparoscopic bariatric surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorente, Leyre; Ramón, José Manuel; Vidal, Pablo; Goday, Alberto; Parri, Alejandra; Lanzarini, Enrique; Pera, Manuel; Grande, Luis

    2014-05-01

    Morbimortality after bariatric surgery varies according to patient characteristics and associated comorbidities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the Obesity sugery mortality risk score scale (OS-MRS) to predict the risk of postoperative complications after bariatric surgery. A retrospective study was performed of a prospective series of patients undergoing bariatric surgery in which the OS-MRS scale was applied preoperatively. Postoperative complications were classified as proposed by Dindo-Clavien. We analyzed the relationship between the categories of OS-MRS scale: A) low risk, B) intermediate risk, and C) high risk and the presence of complications. Between May 2008 and June 2012, 198 patients were included (85 [42.9%] after gastric bypass and 113 [57.1%] after sleeve gastrectomy). Using the OS-MRS scale, 124 patients were classified as class A (62.6%), 70 as class B (35.4%) and 4 as class C (2%). The overall morbidity rate was 12.6% (25 patients). A significant association between OS-MRS scale and rate of complications (7.3, 20 and 50%, respectively, P=.004) was demonstrated. The gastric bypass was associated with a higher complication rate than sleeve gastrectomy (P=.007). In multivariate analysis, OS-MRS scale and surgical technique were the only significant predictive factors. The OS-MRS scale is a useful tool to predict the risk of complications and can be used as a guide when choosing the type of bariatric surgery. Copyright © 2013 AEC. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. Predictive validity of the ACC/AHA pooled cohort equations in predicting cancer-specific mortality in a National Prospective Cohort Study of Adults in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loprinzi, P D

    2016-08-01

    The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines recently developed the Pooled Cohort Risk (PCR) equations to predict 10-years risk for a first atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) event. The predictive validity of these PCR equations on cancer-specific mortality among a national sample of US adults has yet to be evaluated, which was this study's purpose. Data from the 1999-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used, with participants followed through December 31, 2011 to ascertain cancer mortality status via the National Death Index probabilistic algorithm. The analysed sample included 11,171 CVD-free adults (40-79 years). Ten-year risk of a first ASCVD was determined from the PCR equations. For the entire sample, 849,202 person-months occurred with an incidence rate of 0.31 cancer-specific deaths per 1,000 person-months. The unweighted follow-up duration was 72 months (IQR = 39-114). After adjusting for age, gender, race-ethnicity, physical activity and obesity, those with an elevated ASCVD (≥ 7.5%) whom did not have a history of cancer at baseline had a 71% increased risk of cancer-specific mortality. There was less evidence for this relationship among those with a history of cancer. The individual components of the ASCVD that were predictive of cancer-specific mortality included age and smoking status. Ten-year predicted risk of a first ASCVD event via the PCR equations were significantly associated with cancer-specific mortality in a national sample of US adults (40-79 years) whom were free of cancer and CVD at baseline. In this American adult sample, the PCR equations provide evidence of predictive validity for cancer-specific mortality, particularly among those without cancer. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Prognostic value of QT/RR slope in predicting mortality in patients with congestive heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cygankiewicz, Iwona; Zareba, Wojciech; Vazquez, Rafael; Almendral, Jesus; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Fiol, Miquel; Valdes, Mariano; Macaya, Carlos; Gonzalez-Juanatey, Jose R; Cinca, Juan; Bayes de Luna, Antoni

    2008-10-01

    Repolarization dynamics, reflecting adaptation of QT to changing heart rate, is considered a marker of unfavorable prognosis in patients with heart diseases. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of QT/RR slope in predicting total mortality (TM) and sudden death (SD) in patients with congestive heart failure (CHF). In 651 sinus rhythm patients with CHF in NYHA class II-III enrolled in the MUSIC study, 24-hour Holter monitoring was performed at enrollment to assess slope of the QTa/RR (QT apex) and QTe/RR (QTend) during the entire 24-hour Holter recording and separately during day and night periods. Patients were followed for a median of 44 months, with the primary endpoint defined as TM and the secondary as SD. Analysis of repolarization dynamics was feasible in 542 patients (407M), mean age 63 years, 83% in NYHA class II, 49% with ischemic cardiomyopathy, with mean LVEF 37%. Mean value of QTa/RR slope was 0.172 and QTe/RR was 0.193. During the 44-month follow-up there were 119 deaths including 47 SD. Nonsurvivors were characterized by steeper QT/RR slopes. Increased QT/RR slopes during the daytime (>0.20 for QTa and >0.22 for QTe) were independently associated with increased TM in multivariate analysis after adjustment for clinical covariates with respective hazard ratios 1.57 and 1.58, P = 0.002. None of the dynamic repolarization parameters was associated with increased risk of SD in the entire population. Abnormal repolarization dynamics reflected as increased daytime QT/RR slopes is an independent risk stratifier of all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure.

  16. The Best Use of the Charlson Comorbidity Index With Electronic Health Care Database to Predict Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bannay, Aurélie; Chaignot, Christophe; Blotière, Pierre-Olivier; Basson, Mickaël; Weill, Alain; Ricordeau, Philippe; Alla, François

    2016-02-01

    The most used score to measure comorbidity is the Charlson index. Its application to a health care administrative database including International Classification of Diseases, 10th edition (ICD-10) codes, medical procedures, and medication required studying its properties on survival. Our objectives were to adapt the Charlson comorbidity index to the French National Health Insurance database to predict 1-year mortality of discharged patients and to compare discrimination and calibration of different versions of the Charlson index. Our cohort included all adults discharged from a hospital stay in France in 2010 registered in the French National Health Insurance general scheme. The pathologies of the Charlson index were identified through ICD-10 codes of discharge diagnoses and long-term disease, specific medical procedures, and reimbursement of specific medications in the past 12 months before inclusion. We included 6,602,641 subjects at the date of their first discharge from medical, surgical, or obstetrical department in 2010. One-year survival was 94.88%, decreasing from 98.41% for Charlson index of 0-71.64% for Charlson index of ≥5. With a discrimination of 0.91 and an appropriate calibration curve, we retained the crude Cox model including the age-adjusted Charlson index as a 4-level score. Our study is the first to adapt the Charlson index to a large health care database including >6 million of inpatients. When mortality is the outcome, we recommended using the age-adjusted Charlson index as 4-level score to take into account comorbidities.

  17. Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavem, Knut; Hoel, Henrik; Skjaker, Stein Arve; Haagensen, Rolf

    2017-01-01

    This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II model. Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c-statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic. The CCI was complete (n=959) when calculated from chart review, but less complete from administrative data (n=839). Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596-0.714). The c-statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit. The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement and predicted 30-day and 1-year mortality in ICU patients. CCI combined with age, sex, and type of admission predicted mortality almost as well as the physiology-based SAPS II.

  18. Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khwannimit, Bodin

    2008-09-01

    To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

  19. Infant Maltreatment-Related Mortality in Alaska: Correcting the Count and Using Birth Certificates to Predict Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrish, Jared W.; Gessner, Bradford D.

    2010-01-01

    Objectives: To accurately count the number of infant maltreatment-related fatalities and to use information from the birth certificates to predict infant maltreatment-related deaths. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study of infants born in Alaska for the years 1992 through 2005 was conducted. Risk factor variables were ascertained…

  20. The art versus science of predicting prognosis: can a prognostic index predict short-term mortality better than experienced nurses do?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casarett, David J; Farrington, Sue; Craig, Teresa; Slattery, Julie; Harrold, Joan; Oldanie, Betty; Roy, Jason; Biehl, Richard; Teno, Joan

    2012-06-01

    To determine whether a prognostic index could predict one-week mortality more accurately than hospice nurses can. An electronic health record-based retrospective cohort study of 21,074 hospice patients was conducted in three hospice programs in the Southeast, Northeast, and Midwest United States. Model development used logistic regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals and multiple imputation to account for missing data. The main outcome measure was mortality within 7 days of hospice enrollment. A total of 21,074 patients were admitted to hospice between October 1, 2008 and May 31, 2011, and 5562 (26.4%) died within 7 days. An optimal predictive model included the Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) score, admission from a hospital, and gender. The model had a c-statistic of 0.86 in the training sample and 0.84 in the validation sample, which was greater than that of nurses' predictions (0.72). The index's performance was best for patients with pulmonary disease (0.89) and worst for patients with cancer and dementia (both 0.80). The index's predictions of mortality rates in each index category were within 5.0% of actual rates, whereas nurses underestimated mortality by up to 18.9%. Using the optimal index threshold (<3), the index's predictions had a better c-statistic (0.78 versus 0.72) and higher sensitivity (74.4% versus 47.8%) than did nurses' predictions but a lower specificity (80.6% versus 95.1%). Although nurses can often identify patients who will die within 7 days, a simple model based on available clinical information offers improved accuracy and could help to identify those patients who are at high risk for short-term mortality.

  1. Is athletic really ideal? An examination of the mediating role of body dissatisfaction in predicting disordered eating and compulsive exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Hayley S; Donovan, Caroline L; Ramme, Robin

    2016-04-01

    Investigations into female body image have suggested that rather than thinness, preference is now being given to a female "athletic ideal" characterised by a toned abdomen, firmer lower body and muscular upper body. This study sought to investigate a) whether greater internalization of the athletic-ideal is associated with higher body dissatisfaction, dieting, bulimic symptoms and compulsive exercise, and b) whether body dissatisfaction mediates the relationship between athletic-ideal internalization and the disordered eating and exercise behaviours of dieting, bulimic symptoms and compulsive exercise. Participants were 388 females aged between 17 and 35years. Participants completed a battery of questionnaires measuring athletic-ideal internalization, body dissatisfaction, dieting, compulsive exercise and bulimic symptoms. Athletic-ideal internalization was not found to be associated with body dissatisfaction, but was found to predict dieting, bulimic symptoms and compulsive exercise directly. Body dissatisfaction did not mediate the relationship between athletic-ideal internalization and any of the disordered eating and exercise behaviours. The study was limited by its cross sectional design which precluded conclusions being drawn about the direction of causality and temporal associations. Athletic-ideal internalization, while not associated with body dissatisfaction, was associated with a range of disordered eating and exercise behaviours. Results from the study suggest that the female athletic-ideal is an equally unrealistic and problematic ideal for women to strive towards. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. External validation of the rotterdam computed tomography score in the prediction of mortality in severe traumatic brain injury

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose D Charry

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI is a public health problem. It is a pathology that causes significant mortality and disability in Colombia. Different calculators and prognostic models have been developed to predict the neurological outcomes of these patients. The Rotterdam computed tomography (CT score was developed for prognostic purposes in TBI. We aimed to examine the accuracy of the prognostic discrimination and prediction of mortality of the Rotterdam CT score in a cohort of trauma patients with severe TBI in a university hospital in Colombia. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 127 patients with severe TBI treated in a regional trauma center in Colombia over a 2-year period. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were used. The discriminatory power of the score, its accuracy, and precision were assessed by logistic regression and as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Shapiro–Wilk, Chi-square, and Wilcoxon tests were used to compare the real outcomes in the cohort against the predicted outcomes. Results: The median age of the patient cohort was 33 years, and 84.25% were male. The median injury severity score was 25, the median Glasgow Coma Scale motor score was 3, the basal cisterns were closed in 46.46% of the patients, and a midline shift of >5 mm was seen in 50.39%. The 6-month mortality was 29.13%, and the Rotterdam CT score predicted a mortality of 26% (P < 0.0001 (area under the curve: 0.825; 95% confidence interval: 0.745–0.903. Conclusions: The Rotterdam CT score predicted mortality at 6 months in patients with severe head trauma in a university hospital in Colombia. The Rotterdam CT score is useful for predicting early death and the prognosis of patients with TBI.

  3. The additional benefit of weighted subjective global assessment (SGA) for the predictability of mortality in incident peritoneal dialysis patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yun, Taeyoung; Ko, Ye Eun; Kim, Seung-Jung; Kang, Duk-Hee; Choi, Kyu Bok; Oh, Hyung Jung; Ryu, Dong-Ryeol

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Although subjective global assessment (SGA) is a widely used tool for nutritional investigation, the scores are dependent on the inspectors’ subjective opinions, and there are only few studies that directly assessed the usefulness of SGA and modified SGA in incident peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. A total of 365 incident PD patients between 2009 and 2015 were enrolled and measured with SGA and calculated using serum albumin and total iron binding capacity (TIBC) levels for weighted SGA. Cox analyses were performed to delineate the association between SGA or weighted SGA and all-cause mortality, and a receiver-operating characteristic was conducted to reveal the additional benefit of weighted SGA on predicting adverse clinical outcomes. The Kaplan–Meier curve showed that the cumulative survival rate in patients with “Good nutrition” (G1) was significantly higher compared to those with “Mild to severe malnutrition” (G2). G2 was significantly associated with an increase in the mortality even after adjusting for several covariates compared with G1. Moreover, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was also significantly correlated with mortality after adjustment of the same covariates, while G2 was not significantly associated with an increase in the mortality among young-aged (under 65 years) groups. Meanwhile, a 1-unit increase in weighted SGA was significantly related to an increase in mortality in all the subgroup analyses. Furthermore, the AUCs of weighted SGAs in all groups were significantly increased compared with those of SGA alone. In conclusions, the evaluation of nutritional status based on SGA in incident PD patients might be useful for predicting mortality. However, weighted SGA with serum albumin and TIBC can provide additional predictive power for mortality compared with SGA alone in incident PD patients. PMID:29095278

  4. Elevated inflammatory markers predict mortality in long-term ischemic stroke-survivors: a population-based prospective study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøyshov, Hanne M; Bjørnerem, Åshild; Engstad, Torgeir; Halvorsen, Dag Seeger

    2017-06-01

    High levels of inflammatory markers shortly after an ischemic stroke are associated with a worse prognosis. Whether inflammatory markers predict long-term mortality in stroke-survivors is less clear. We examined whether a persisting inflammatory response (levels of inflammatory markers >1 year after the stroke event) was associated with long-term mortality. We recruited participants from the Tromsø Study, Norway, in a nested case-control design. At baseline in 1997, white blood cell count (WBC), serum levels of fibrinogen, interleukin 6 (IL-6) and high sensitive C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) were analysed in 187 stroke-survivors, a median of 7.0 years (range 1-43) after the first-ever ischemic stroke, and in 243 stroke-free subjects. Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to examine whether inflammatory markers predicted all-cause mortality in both groups from 1997 to 2013. During an average of 16 years follow-up, 117 (62.5 %) stroke-survivors and 107 (44.0 %) stroke-free subjects deceased (p for differences 0.005). In stroke-survivors, fibrinogen and log IL-6 predicted all-cause mortality after adjustment for age, sex, BMI, smoking, Frenchay activity index, comorbidity and use of statins (HRs 1.26; 9 5 % CI 1.05-1.51 and 2.02; 95 % CI 1.12-3.64, respectively). In stroke-free subjects log hs-CRP predicted all-cause mortality after additionally accounting for levels of cholesterol, blood pressure and use of blood pressure lowering drugs (HR 1.95; 95 % CI 1.26-2.99). Fibrinogen and IL-6 were independent predictors of mortality in long-term stroke-survivors, whereas elevated hs-CRP predicted mortality in stroke-free subjects. Mortality risk prediction in stroke-survivors differed from that of stroke-free subjects.

  5. Development and Validation of a Score to Predict Mortality in Children Undergoing ECMO for Respiratory Failure: Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (P-PREP) Score

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailly DO, David K.; Reeder PhD, Ron W.; Zabrocki MD, Luke A.; Hubbard MD, Anna M.; Wilkes, Jacob; Bratton, Susan L.; Thiagarajan MBBS, Ravi R.

    2017-01-01

    Objective Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic score for predicting mortality at time of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) initiation for children with respiratory failure. Pre-ECMO mortality prediction is important for determining center-specific risk-adjusted outcomes and counseling families. Design Multivariable logistic regression of a large international cohort of pediatric ECMO patients. Setting Multi institutional data. Patients Prognostic score development: 4352 children aged >7 days to ECMO run for respiratory failure reported to the Extracorporeal Life Support Organization’s data registry during 2001–2013 were used for derivation (70%) and validation (30%). Bidirectional stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with mortality. Retained variables were assigned a score based on the odds of mortality with higher scores indicating greater mortality. External validation was accomplished using 2007 patients from the Pediatric Health Information System dataset. Interventions None Measurements and Main Results The Pediatric Pulmonary Rescue with Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Prediction (P-PREP) score included mode of ECMO; pre-ECMO mechanical ventilation > 14 days; pre-ECMO severity of hypoxia; primary pulmonary diagnostic categories including, asthma, aspiration, respiratory syncytial virus, sepsis-induced respiratory failure, pertussis and ‘other’; and pre-ECMO comorbid conditions of cardiac arrest, cancer, renal and liver dysfunction. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for internal and external validation data-sets were 0.69 (95% CI, 0.67–0.71) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.63–0.69). Conclusions P-PREP is a validated tool for predicting in-hospital mortality among children with respiratory failure receiving ECMO support. PMID:27548818

  6. Reassessment of the predictive value of the Forrest classification for peptic ulcer rebleeding and mortality: can classification be simplified?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groot, N.L. de; Oijen, M.G.H. van; Kessels, K.; Hemmink, M.; Weusten, B.L.; Timmer, R.; Hazen, W.L.; Lelyveld, N. van; Vermeijden, R.R.; Curvers, W.L.; Baak, B.C.; Verburg, R.; Bosman, J.H.; Wijkerslooth, L.R. de; Rooij, J van; Venneman, N.G.; Pennings, M.C.P.; Hee, K. van; Scheffer, B.C.; Eijk, R.L. van; Meiland, R.; Siersema, P.D.; Bredenoord, A.J.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND AND STUDY AIMS: This study aimed to reassess whether the Forrest classification is still useful for the prediction of rebleeding and mortality in peptic ulcer bleedings and, based on this, whether the classification could be simplified. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Prospective registry data on

  7. Mortality risk prediction by an insurance company and long-term follow-up of 62,000 men

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.J.G. Sijbrands (Eric); E. Tornij (Erik); S.J. Homsma (Sietske)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Insurance companies use medical information to classify the mortality risk of applicants. Adding genetic tests to this assessment is currently being debated. This debate would be more meaningful, if results of present-day risk prediction were known. Therefore, we compared the

  8. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Age...

  9. Prediction of delayed mortality of fire-damaged ponderosa pine following prescribed fires in eastern Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlina; Mark Loewen; Greg. Brenner

    2006-01-01

    Prescribed burning is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads in western interior forests. Following a burn, managers need the ability to predict the mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. A study was established in six stands of mixed-age ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.) with scattered western...

  10. Xiphoid Surface Temperature Predicts Mortality in a Murine Model of Septic Shock.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laitano, Orlando; Van Steenbergen, David; Mattingly, Alex J; Garcia, Christian K; Robinson, Gerard P; Murray, Kevin O; Clanton, Thomas L; Nunamaker, Elizabeth A

    2017-09-27

    Sepsis continues to be a major challenge for modern medicine. Several preclinical models were developed to study sepsis and each has strengths and weaknesses. The cecal slurry (CS) method is a practical alternative because it does not require surgery, and the infection can be dosed. However, one disadvantage is that the dosage must be determined for each CS preparation using survival studies. Our aim was to refine a survival protocol for the CS model by determining a premonitory humane endpoint that would reduce animal suffering. Mice become hypothermic in sepsis; therefore, we tested whether reductions in surface temperature (Ts), measured by non-invasive infrared thermometry, could predict eventual death. We injected 154 C57BL/6J mice with CS (0.9-1.8 mg/g) and periodically monitored Ts at the xiphoid process over 5 days. We used, as predictors, combinations of temperature thresholds (29-31°C) and times, post injection (18-36 h). A receiver-operator curve, sensitivity, and specificity were determined. A Distress Index value was calculated for the threshold conditions. The optimum detection threshold (highest Youden's index) was found at Ts ≤ 30.5°C at 24 h (90% specific, 84% sensitive). This threshold condition reduced animal suffering by 41% while providing an accurate survival rate estimate. Using this threshold, only 13/154 mice would have died from sepsis; 67 would have been euthanized at 24 h, and only 7/154 would have been euthanized unnecessarily. In conclusion, using a humane endpoint of Ts ≤ 30.5°C at 24 h accurately predicts mortality and can effectively reduce animal suffering during CS survival protocols.

  11. Circulating levels of GH predict mortality and complement prognostic scores in critically ill medical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schuetz, Philipp; Müller, Beat; Nusbaumer, Charly; Wieland, Melanie; Christ-Crain, Mirjam

    2009-02-01

    Circulating levels of GH are increased during critical illness and correlate with outcome in children with meningococcal sepsis. We assessed the prognostic implications of GH on admission and during follow-up in critically ill adult patients admitted to a medical intensive care unit. We measured GH, IGF1 and IGF-binding protein3 (IGFBP-3) plasma concentrations in 103 consecutive critically ill patients and compared it with two clinical severity scores (APACHE II, SAPS II). Median GH levels on admission were similar in septic (n=53) and non-septic (n=50) patients and about 7-fold increased in the 24 non-survivors as compared with survivors (9.50 (interquartile ranges (IQR) 3.53-18.40) vs 1.4 (IQR 0.63-5.04), PAPACHE II: AUC 0.71 (95% CI, 0.58-0.83), P=0.16, SAPS II: AUC 0.75 (95% CI, 0.63-0.86, P=0.36)). GH improved the prognostic accuracy of the APACHE II score to an AUC of 0.78 (95% CI, 0.66-090, P=0.04) and tended to improve the SAPS II score to an AUC of 0.79 (95% CI, 0.67-0.90, P=0.09). GH plasma concentrations on admission are independent predictors for mortality in adult critically ill patients and may complement existing risk prediction scores, namely the APACHE II and the SAPS II score.

  12. Development of a mortality prediction formula due to sepsis/severe sepsis in a medical intensive care unit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anant Mohan

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Although sepsis is one of the leading causes of mortality in hospitalized patients, information regarding early predictive factors for mortality and morbidity is limited. Materials and Methods: Patients fulfilling the Infectious Disease Society of America criteria of sepsis within the medical intensive care unit (ICU were included over two years. Apart from baseline hematological, biochemical, and metabolic parameters, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and III (SAPS II and SAPS III, and Sequential Organ Function Assessment (SOFA scores were calculated on day 1 of admission. Patients were followed till death or discharge from the ICU. Results: One hundred patients were enrolled over two years (54% males. The overall mortality was 53%, (69.5% in females, 38.8% in males (P < 0.01. Mortality was 65.7%, 55.7%, and 33.3% in patients with septic shock, severe sepsis, and sepsis, respectively. Patients who died were significantly older than the survivors (mean age, 57.37 ± 20.42 years and 44.29 ± 15.53 years respectively, P < 0.01. Nonsurvivors were significantly more anemic and had higher APACHE II, SAPS II, SAPS III, and SOFA scores. The presence of acute respiratory distress syndrome and renal dysfunction were associated with higher mortality (75% and 70.2%, respectively. There was no significant difference in the duration of mechanical ventilation or ICU stay between survivors and nonsurvivors. On multivariate analysis, significant predictors of mortality with odds ratio greater than 2 included the presence of anemia, SAPS II score greater than 35, SAPS III score greater than 47, and SOFA score greater than 6 at day 1 of admission. Conclusion: Several demographic and laboratory parameters as well as composite critical illness scoring systems are reliable early predictors of mortality in sepsis. A sepsis mortality prediction formula (AIIMS Sepsis Score based on SAPS II

  13. Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    2012-01-31

    WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

  14. A systematic review on the rotational thrombelastometry (ROTEM®) values for the diagnosis of coagulopathy, prediction and guidance of blood transfusion and prediction of mortality in trauma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veigas, Precilla V; Callum, Jeannie; Rizoli, Sandro; Nascimento, Bartolomeu; da Luz, Luis Teodoro

    2016-10-03

    Viscoelastic assays have been promoted as an improvement over traditional coagulation tests in the management of trauma patients. Rotational thromboelastometry (ROTEM®) has been used to diagnose coagulopathy and guide hemostatic therapy in trauma. This systematic review of clinical studies in trauma investigates the ROTEM® parameters thresholds used for the diagnosing coagulopathy, predicting and guiding transfusion and predicting mortality. Systematic literature search was performed using MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases. We included studies without restricting year of publication, language or geographic location. Original studies reporting the thresholds of ROTEM® parameters in the diagnosis or management of coagulopathy in trauma patients were included. Data on patient demographics, measures of coagulopathy, transfusion and mortality were extracted. We reported our findings according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Quality assessment and risk of bias were performed using Newcastle Ottawa Scale (NOS) and the quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies (QUADAS-2) tools, respectively. A total of 13 observational studies involving 2835 adult trauma patients met the inclusion criteria. Nine studies were prospective and four were retrospective. There were no randomized controlled trials. The quality of the included studies was moderate (mean NOS 5.92, standard deviation 0.26). Using QUADAS-2, only 1 study (7.6 %) had low risk of bias in all domains, and 9 studies (69.2 %) had low risk of applicability concerns. Outcomes from 13 studies were grouped into three categories: diagnosis of coagulopathy (n = 10), prediction of massive transfusion or transfusion guidance (n = 6) and prediction of mortality (n = 6). Overall, specific ROTEM® parameters measured (clot amplitude and lysis) in the extrinsically activated test (EXTEM) and the fibrin-based extrinsically activated test

  15. Predictive Factors for Good Outcome and Mortality After Stent-Retriever Thrombectomy in Patients With Acute Anterior Circulation Stroke.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Woong; Kim, Seul Kee; Park, Man Seok; Baek, Byung Hyun; Lee, Yun Young

    2017-01-01

    Predictive factors associated with stent-retriever thrombectomy for patients with acute anterior circulation stroke remain to be elucidated. This study aimed to investigate clinical and procedural factors predictive of good outcome and mortality after stent-retriever thrombectomy in a large cohort of patients with acute anterior circulation stroke. We analyzed clinical and procedural data in 335 patients with acute anterior circulation stroke treated with stent-retriever thrombectomy. A good outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score of 0 to 2 at 3 months. The associations between clinical, imaging, and procedural factors and good outcome and mortality, respectively, were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Using multivariate analysis, age (odds ratio [OR], 0.965; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.944-0.986; P=0.001), successful revascularization (OR, 4.658; 95% CI, 2.240-9.689; Pgood outcome. Independent predictors of mortality were age (OR, 1.043; 95% CI, 1.002-1.086; P=0.041), successful revascularization (OR, 0.171; 95% CI, 0.079-0.370; Pgood outcome and mortality after stent retriever thrombectomy for acute anterior circulation stroke. In addition, NIHSS score on admission is independently associated with good outcome, whereas a history of previous stroke is independently associated with mortality.

  16. Post-reperfusion syndrome during orthotopic liver transplantation, which definition best predicts postoperative graft failure and recipient mortality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siniscalchi, Antonio; Gamberini, Lorenzo; Bardi, Tommaso; Laici, Cristiana; Ravaioli, Matteo; Bacchi Reggiani, Maria Letizia; Faenza, Stefano

    2017-10-01

    Post-reperfusion syndrome during orthotopic liver transplantation, which definition best predicts postoperative graft failure and recipient mortality? Post-reperfusion syndrome (PRS) is a serious complication of liver transplantation, at present two main definitions are in use, and they differ both clinically and temporally. The primary objective of this study was to evaluate these two definitions as risk factors for post-transplantation mortality and primary graft non-function. We conducted a retrospective observational study on 794 patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation at our university hospital. The presence of PRS was evaluated according to both definitions and correlated with the end points: three months mortality, primary graft non-function (PGNF) and the combined outcome of the two. Both definitions proved to be independent risk factors for three months mortality and the combined outcome. The definition according to Aggarwal et al. was also an independent risk factor for PGNF when adjusted for the propensity score. The Hilmi definition, despite being more comprehensive, did not improve the predictivity of the Aggarwal definition for the evaluated outcomes. PRS proved to be an independent risk factor for post-transplantation mortality and occurrence of PGNF. The pathophysiological mechanisms of this entity are still not fully understood and preventive strategies could help in reducing patients and graft losses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Predictive score for mortality in patients with COPD exacerbations attending hospital emergency departments

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-01-01

    Background Limited information is available about predictors of short-term outcomes in patients with exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (eCOPD) attending an emergency department (ED). Such information could help stratify these patients and guide medical decision-making. The aim of this study was to develop a clinical prediction rule for short-term mortality during hospital admission or within a week after the index ED visit. Methods This was a prospective cohort study of patients with eCOPD attending the EDs of 16 participating hospitals. Recruitment started in June 2008 and ended in September 2010. Information on possible predictor variables was recorded during the time the patient was evaluated in the ED, at the time a decision was made to admit the patient to the hospital or discharge home, and during follow-up. Main short-term outcomes were death during hospital admission or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED, as well as at death within 1 month of the index ED visit. Multivariate logistic regression models were developed in a derivation sample and validated in a validation sample. The score was compared with other published prediction rules for patients with stable COPD. Results In total, 2,487 patients were included in the study. Predictors of death during hospital admission, or within 1 week of discharge to home from the ED were patient age, baseline dyspnea, previous need for long-term home oxygen therapy or non-invasive mechanical ventilation, altered mental status, and use of inspiratory accessory muscles or paradoxical breathing upon ED arrival (area under the curve (AUC) = 0.85). Addition of arterial blood gas parameters (oxygen and carbon dioxide partial pressures (PO2 and PCO2)) and pH) did not improve the model. The same variables were predictors of death at 1 month (AUC = 0.85). Compared with other commonly used tools for predicting the severity of COPD in stable patients, our rule was significantly better

  18. Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuiver, Martijn M.; Kampshoff, Caroline S.; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J. M.; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2(peak)) and peak power output (W-peak).&

  19. Validation and refinement of prediction models to estimate exercise capacity in cancer survivors using the steep ramp test

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stuiver, M.M.; Kampshoff, C.S.; Persoon, S.; Groen, W.; van Mechelen, W.; Chinapaw, M.J.M.; Brug, J.; Nollet, F.; Kersten, M.-J.; Schep, G.; Buffart, L.M.

    2017-01-01

    Objective To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2peak) and peak power output (Wpeak). Design

  20. A Maximal Graded Exercise Test to Accurately Predict VO2max in 18-65-Year-Old Adults

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, James D.; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Hyde, Annette; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an age-generalized regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO sub 2 max) based on a maximal treadmill graded exercise test (GXT; George, 1996). Participants (N = 100), ages 18-65 years, reached a maximal level of exertion (mean plus or minus standard deviation [SD]; maximal heart rate [HR sub…

  1. Painful skin lesions and squamous cell carcinoma predict overall mortality risk in organ transplant recipients: a cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oh, C C; Hofbauer, G F L; Serra, A L; Harwood, C A; Mitchell, L; Proby, C M; Olasz, E B; Mosel, D D; Piaserico, S; Fortina, A B; Geusau, A; Jahn-Bassler, K; Gerritsen, M J P; Seçkin, D; Güleç, A T; Cetkovská, P; Ricar, J; Imko-Walczuk, B; Dębska-Ślizień, A; Bouwes Bavinck, J N

    2017-05-01

    Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) have a highly increased risk of cutaneous squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). Sensation of pain in cutaneous tumours is a powerful patient-reported warning signal for invasive SCCs in OTRs. To investigate the impact of painful vs. painless skin lesions and SCC vs. other skin lesions on the overall mortality risk in OTRs. We followed 410 OTRs from 10 different centres across Europe and North America between 2008 and 2015. These patients had been enrolled in an earlier study to define clinically meaningful patient-reported warning signals predicting the presence of SCC, and had been included if they had a lesion requiring histological diagnosis. Cumulative incidences of overall mortality were calculated using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, and risk factors were analysed with Cox proportional hazard analysis. There was an increased overall mortality risk in OTRs who reported painful vs. painless skin lesions, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·6 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·97-2·7], adjusted for age, sex and other relevant factors. There was also an increased overall mortality risk in OTRs diagnosed with SCC compared with other skin lesions, with an adjusted HR of 1·7 (95% CI 1·0-2·8). Mortality due to internal malignancies and systemic infections appeared to prevail in OTRs with SCC. We suggest that OTRs have an increased overall mortality risk if they develop painful skin lesions or are diagnosed with cutaneous SCC. © 2016 British Association of Dermatologists.

  2. Role of Non-hepatic Medical Comorbidity and Functional Limitations in Predicting Mortality in Patients with HCV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, Yamini; White, Donna L; El-Serag, Hashem B; Ramsey, David; Richardson, Peter; Kuzniarek, Jill; Shukla, Richa; Tansel, Aylin; Kanwal, Fasiha

    2017-01-01

    Medical comorbidities and functional status limitations are determinants of mortality in many chronic diseases. The extent to which survival in the rapidly aging cohort of patients with HCV is affected by these competing causes of mortality remains unclear. We sought to determine the effect of medical/functional comorbidities on survival after adjusting for liver disease severity in a cohort of patients with HCV infection. We prospectively recruited consecutive patients from an HCV clinic 2009-2014. We calculated an index of survival (Schonberg Index, SI) based on age, gender, medical comorbidities, and functional status variables. We defined cirrhosis with the FibroSure test (F3/4-F4). We used multivariable Cox modeling to assess association between functional/survival measure and survival after adjustment for severity of liver disease. The cohort consisted of 1052 HCV patients. The average age was 56.8 years; 36 % had cirrhosis. The mean SI was 8.2 (SD = 2.7). During a mean follow-up of 5610 person-years, 102 (9.7 %) patients died. In unadjusted analysis, higher baseline SI predicted mortality (HR 1.17; 95 % CI 1.09-1.25). SI similarly predicted mortality in cirrhotic patients (HR 1.23, 95 % CI 1.13-1.34) and non-cirrhotic patients (HR 1.21, 95 % CI 1.08-1.36). This did not change after adjusting for age, drug use, or coronary artery disease. Comorbidities and functional limitations predict higher mortality in patients with HCV; this relationship is independent of cirrhosis. Use of general prognostic indices may help identify HCV patients at high risk for mortality, which could further guide clinical care in a manner not achievable with assessment of liver disease alone.

  3. A new risk score predicting 1- and 5-year mortality following acute myocardial infarction Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction (SAMI) Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plakht, Ygal; Shiyovich, Arthur; Weitzman, Shimon; Fraser, Drora; Zahger, Doron; Gilutz, Harel

    2012-01-26

    Risk stratification of patients following acute myocardial infarction (AMI), in order to identify patients whose clinical outcomes can be improved through specific medical interventions, is needed. Development and validation of a prognostic tool comprising a variety of non-cardiovascular co-morbidities, to predict mortality of hospital survivors after AMI. The study cohort included 2773 consecutive patients with AMI who were discharged live from the Soroka University Medical Center between 2002 and 2004. Two-thirds were used obtain the model (training set) and one-third to validate it (validation set). Data were collected from the hospital's routine computerized information systems. The primary outcome was post-discharge 1-year all-cause mortality. The weight of each variable in the final score was computed based on the odds ratio values of the multivariate model. Additionally, the ability of the index to predict 5-year mortality was assessed. These are comprised of the following parameters: 4 points - age >75 years, abnormal echocardiography findings; 3 points - at least one of following: gastro-intestinal hemorrhage, COPD, malignancy, alcohol or drug addiction, neurological disorders, psychiatric disorders; 2 points - no echocardiography results, renal diseases, anemia, hyponatremia; -3 points for PCI or thrombolytic therapy; -6 points - CABG; -2 points - obesity. The c-statistics for 1-year all-cause mortality were 0.86 and 0.83 in the training and validation sets, respectively. The c-statistics for 5-year mortality was 0.858 for both sets combined. The new score is a simple robust tool for predicting mortality in patients discharged alive following AMI. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Evaluation of the POSSUM, p-POSSUM, o-POSSUM, and APACHE II scoring systems in predicting postoperative mortality and morbidity in gastric cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shikai Hong

    2017-03-01

    Conclusion: The POSSUM scoring system performed well with respect to predicting morbidity risk following gastric cancer resection. For predicting postoperative mortality, p-POSSUM and o-POSSUM exhibited superior performance relative to POSSUM and APACHE II.

  5. Quantitative chest computed tomography is associated with two prediction models of mortality in interstitial lung disease related to systemic sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ariani, Alarico; Silva, Mario; Seletti, Valeria; Bravi, Elena; Saracco, Marta; Parisi, Simone; De Gennaro, Fabio; Idolazzi, Luca; Caramaschi, Paola; Benini, Camilla; Bodini, Flavio Cesare; Scirè, Carlo Alberto; Carrara, Greta; Lumetti, Federica; Alfieri, Veronica; Bonati, Elisa; Lucchini, Gianluca; Aiello, Marina; Santilli, Daniele; Mozzani, Flavio; Imberti, Davide; Michieletti, Emanuele; Arrigoni, Eugenio; Delsante, Giovanni; Pellerito, Raffaele; Fusaro, Enrico; Chetta, Alfredo; Sverzellati, Nicola

    2017-06-01

    In this multicentre study, we aimed to evaluate the capacity of a computer-assisted automated QCT method to identify patients with SSc-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) with high mortality risk according to validated composite clinical indexes (ILD-Gender, Age, Physiology index and du Bois index). Chest CT, anamnestic data and pulmonary function tests of 146 patients with SSc were retrospectively collected, and the ILD-Gender, Age, Physiology score and DuBois index were calculated. Each chest CT underwent an operator-independent quantitative assessment performed with a free medical image viewer (Horos). The correlation between clinical prediction models and QCT parameters was tested. A value of P < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Most QCT parameters had a statistically different distribution in patients with diverging mortality risk according to both clinical prediction models (P < 0.01). The cut-offs of QCT parameters were calculated by receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, and most of them could discriminate patients with different mortality risk according to clinical prediction models. QCT assessment of SSc-ILD can discriminate between well-defined different mortality risk categories, supporting its prognostic value. These findings, together with the operator independence, strengthen the validity and clinical usefulness of QCT for assessment of SSc-ILD.

  6. Effects of exercise on sleep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youngstedt, Shawn D

    2005-04-01

    Historically, perhaps no daytime behavior has been more closely associated with better sleep than exercise. The assumption that exercise promotes sleep has also been central to various hypotheses about the functions of sleep. Hypotheses that sleep serves an energy conservation function, a body tissue restitution function, or a temperature down-regulation function all have predicted a uniquely potent effect of exercise on sleep because no other stimulus elicits greater depletion of energy stores, tissue breakdown, or elevation of body temperature, respectively. Exercise offers a potentially attractive alternative or adjuvant treatment for insomnia. Sleeping pills have a number of adverse side effects and are not recommended for long-term use, partly on the basis of a significant epidemiologic association of chronic hypnotic use with mortality. Other behavioral/cognitive treatments are more effective for chronic insomnia treatment, but difficult and costly to deliver. By contrast, exercise could be a healthy, safe, inexpensive, and simple means of improving sleep.

  7. The 22/11 risk prediction model: a validated model for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and spontaneous bacterial peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tandon, Puneeta; Kumar, Deepali; Seo, Yeon Seok; Chang, Hsiu-Ju; Chaulk, Jennifer; Carbonneau, Michelle; Qamar, Hina; Keough, Adam; Mansoor, Nadia; Ma, Mang

    2013-09-01

    Clinicians do not have a validated tool for estimating the short-term mortality associated with spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP). Accurate prognosis assessment is important for risk stratification and for individualizing therapy. We aimed therefore to develop and validate a model for the prediction of 30-day mortality in SBP patients receiving standard medical treatment (antibiotics and if indicated by guidelines, intravenous albumin therapy). We retrospectively identified SBP patients treated at a tertiary care center between 2003 and 2011 (training set). Multivariate regression modeling and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were utilized for statistical analysis. An external data set of 109 SBP patients was utilized for validation. Of the 184 patients in the training set, 66% were men with a median age of 55 years, a median MELD (Model for End-Stage Liver Disease) score of 20, and a 30-day mortality of 27%. Peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×10⁹ cells/l (odds ratio (OR) 2.5; 95% confidence interval CI: 1.2-5.2) and MELD score ≥22 (OR 4.6; 95% CI: 2.3-9.6) were independent predictors of 30-day mortality. Patients with neither, one, or both variables had 30-day mortality rates of 8%, 32%, and 52%, respectively. The findings in the validation set mirrored the training set. In cirrhotic patients with SBP receiving standard therapy, MELD score ≥22 and peripheral blood leukocyte count ≥11×10⁹ cells/l are validated independent predictors of mortality. The mortality in a patient without either poor prognostic variable is ≤10% and with both variables is ≥50%. Trials aiming to reduce mortality should target patients in the moderate-risk to high-risk groups.

  8. Hospital mortality in postoperative critically ill patients older than 80 years. Can we predict it at an early stage?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paz Martín, D; Aliaño Piña, M; Pérez Martín, F; Velaz Domínguez, S; Vázquez Vicente, B; Poza Hernández, P; Ávila Sánchez, F J

    2016-01-01

    To determine the incidence of in-hospital mortality throughout the post-surgical period of patients aged 80 or over who were admitted to the post-surgical critical care unit, as well as to assess the predictive capacity of those variables existing in the first 48hours on the in-hospital mortality. An observational retrospective cohort study conducted on postsurgical patients up to 80years old who were admitted to the unit between June 2011 and December 2013. Univariate and multivariate binary logistic regression was used to determine the association between mortality and the independent variables. Of the 186 patients included, 9 (4.8%) died in the critical care unit, and 22 (11.8%) died in wards during hospital admission, giving a hospital mortality of 31 (16.7%). Among the 78 patients (42%) that underwent acute surgery, and the 108 who underwent elective surgery, there was a mortality rate of 19 (10.2%) and 12 (6.5%), respectively. As regards the variables analysed during the first 48hours of admission that showed to be hospital mortality risk factor were the need for mechanical ventilation over 48h, with an OR: 7.146 (95%CI: 1.563-32.664, P=.011) and the degree of the severity score on the APACHE II scale in the first 24hours, with an OR: 1.102 (95%CI: 1.005-1.208, P=.039). The incidence of hospital mortality in very old patients found in our study is comparable to that reported by other authors. Patients who need mechanical ventilation over 48h, and with higher scores in the APACHE II scale could be at a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2015 Sociedad Española de Anestesiología, Reanimación y Terapéutica del Dolor. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  9. Multi-dimensional scores to predict mortality in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis undergoing lung transplantation assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisher, Jolene H; Al-Hejaili, Faris; Kandel, Sonja; Hirji, Alim; Shapera, Shane; Mura, Marco

    2017-04-01

    The heterogeneous progression of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) makes prognostication difficult and contributes to high mortality on the waitlist for lung transplantation (LTx). Multi-dimensional scores (Composite Physiologic index [CPI], [Gender-Age-Physiology [GAP]; RIsk Stratification scorE [RISE]) demonstrated enhanced predictive power towards outcome in IPF. The lung allocation score (LAS) is a multi-dimensional tool commonly used to stratify patients assessed for LTx. We sought to investigate whether IPF-specific multi-dimensional scores predict mortality in patients with IPF assessed for LTx. The study included 302 patients with IPF who underwent a LTx assessment (2003-2014). Multi-dimensional scores were calculated. The primary outcome was 12-month mortality after assessment. LTx was considered as competing event in all analyses. At the end of the observation period, there were 134 transplants, 63 deaths, and 105 patients were alive without LTx. Multi-dimensional scores predicted mortality with accuracy similar to LAS, and superior to that of individual variables: area under the curve (AUC) for LAS was 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 86%); CPI 0.75 (sensitivity 67%, specificity 82%); GAP 0.67 (sensitivity 59%, specificity 74%); RISE 0.78 (sensitivity 71%, specificity 84%). A separate analysis conducted only in patients actively listed for LTx (n = 247; 50 deaths) yielded similar results. In patients with IPF assessed for LTx as well as in those actually listed, multi-dimensional scores predict mortality better than individual variables, and with accuracy similar to the LAS. If validated, multi-dimensional scores may serve as inexpensive tools to guide decisions on the timing of referral and listing for LTx. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Prediction of VO2max in Children and Adolescents Using Exercise Testing and Physical Activity Questionnaire Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Black, Nate E; Vehrs, Pat R; Fellingham, Gilbert W; George, James D; Hager, Ron

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the use of a treadmill walk-jog-run exercise test previously validated in adults and physical activity questionnaire data to estimate maximum oxygen consumption (VO2max) in boys (n = 62) and girls (n = 66) aged 12 to 17 years old. Data were collected from Physical Activity Rating (PA-R) and Perceived Functional Ability (PFA) questionnaires, a walk-jog-run submaximal treadmill exercise test, and a maximal graded exercise test. Regression analysis resulted in the development of 2 models to predict VO2max. Submaximal exercise test data were used to build the following model (R2 = .73; SEE = 4.59 mL + kg(- 1) + min(- 1)): VO2max (mL + kg(- 1) + min(- 1)) = 26.890+(5.877 × Gender; 0 = female; 1 = male) - (0.782 × Body Mass Index [BMI])+(0.438 × PFA Score) +(2.712 × Treadmill Speed; mph) +(0.746 × Age) +(0.449 × PA-R Score). Maximal exercise test data were used to build the following model (R2 = .83; SEE = 3.63 mL + kg(- 1) + min(- 1)): VO2max (mL + kg(- 1) + min(- 1)) = 10.716+(1.334 × Maximal Treadmill Grade) +(5.203 × Treadmill Speed; mph) +(3.494 × Gender; 0 = female; 1 = male) - (0.413 × BMI) +(0.249 × PFA). The results of this study demonstrate, for the first time, that regression equations that use both exercise data and physical activity questionnaire data can accurately predict VO2max in youth. The submaximal and maximal exercise tests that use self-selected treadmill speeds can be used to assess cardiorespiratory fitness of youth with a wide range of fitness levels.

  11. Autonomic nervous system interaction with the cardiovascular system during exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, James V; Dewey, Frederick E; Hadley, David M; Myers, Jonathan; Froelicher, Victor F

    2006-01-01

    There is considerable recent evidence that parameters thought to reflect the complex interaction between the autonomic nervous system and the cardiovascular system during exercise testing can provide significant prognostic information. Specific variables of great importance include heart rate (HR) response to exercise (reserve), HR recovery after exercise, and multiple components of HR variability both at rest and with exercise. Poor HR response to exercise has been strongly associated with sudden cardiac death and HR recovery from a standard exercise test has been shown to be predictive of mortality. In addition, there are limited studies evaluating the components of HR variability at rest and during exercise and their prognostic significance. Research continues seeking to refine these exercise measurements and further define their prognostic value. Future findings should augment the power of the exercise test in risk-stratifying cardiovascular patients.

  12. Mastication and prescribed fire influences on tree mortality and predicted fire behavior in ponderosa pine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alicia L. Reiner; Nicole M. Vaillant; Scott N. Dailey

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to provide land managers with information on potential wildfire behavior and tree mortality associated with mastication and masticated/fire treatments in a plantation. Additionally, the effect of pulling fuels away from tree boles before applying fire treatment was studied in relation to tree mortality. Fuel characteristics and tree...

  13. Do acute effects of exercise on vascular function predict adaptation to training?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ellen A; Cable, N Timothy; Green, Daniel J; Thijssen, Dick H J

    2018-03-01

    No previous study has explored the importance of exercise-induced changes in vascular function to prolonged adaptations. Therefore, the purpose was to explore the within-subject relationship between the acute post-exercise change in brachial artery endothelial function (flow-mediated dilation, FMD) and the change in resting FMD after a 2-week exercise training in healthy volunteers. Twenty one healthy, young men (24 ± 5 years) underwent assessment of brachial artery FMD using high-resolution ultrasound before and after 30-min of moderate-intensity cycle exercise (80% maximal heart rate). Subsequently, subjects performed five 30-min cycle exercise bouts at 80% maximal heart rate across a 2-week period, followed by repeat assessment of resting brachial FMD post-training. Correcting for changes in diameter and shear, FMD did not change after the initial exercise bout (P = 0.26). However, a significant correlation was found between post-exercise changes in FMD and adaptation in resting FMD after training (r = 0.634, P = 0.002), where an acute decrease in post-exercise FMD resulted in a decrease in baseline FMD after 2 weeks and vice versa. We also found a positive correlation between antegrade shear rate during exercise and change in FMD% after acute exercise and after exercise training (r = 0.529 and 0.475, both P < 0.05). Our findings suggest that acute post-exercise changes in vascular function are related to changes in resting FMD after a 2-week endurance exercise training period in healthy men, an effect that may be related to exercise-induced increases in antegrade shear rate. This provides further insight into the relevance of acute changes in shear and FMD for subsequent adaptation.

  14. Circulating CXCL10 in cirrhotic portal hypertension might reflect systemic inflammation and predict ACLF and mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehmann, Jennifer M; Claus, Karina; Jansen, Christian; Pohlmann, Alessandra; Schierwagen, Robert; Meyer, Carsten; Thomas, Daniel; Manekeller, Steffen; Claria, Joan; Strassburg, Christian P; Trautwein, Christian; Wasmuth, Hermann E; Berres, Marie-Luise; Trebicka, Jonel

    2017-11-06

    CXCR% ligands play an important role in hepatic injury, inflammation and fibrosis. While CXCL9 and CXCL11 are associated with survival in patients receiving transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), the role of CXCL10 in severe portal hypertension remains unknown. A total of 89 cirrhotic patients were analysed. CXCL10 protein levels were measured in portal and hepatic blood at TIPS insertion and 2 weeks later in 24 patients. CXCL10 and IL8 levels were assessed in portal, hepatic, cubital vein and right atrium blood in a further 25 patients at TIPS insertion. Furthermore, real-time PCR determined hepatic CXCL10-mRNA in 40 cirrhotic patients. Hepatic CXCL10 showed no association with decompensation. By contrast, circulating CXCL10-levels were higher in portal than in hepatic vein blood, suggesting an extrahepatic source of CXCL10 in cirrhosis. However, CXCL10 protein in blood samples from portal, hepatic, cubital veins and right atrium correlated excellently with each other and with IL-8 levels. Higher CXCL10 circulating levels were associated with presence of ascites and higher Child scores. Higher CXCL10 circulating protein levels were associated with acute decompensation, acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and independently with mortality. Moreover, a decrease in CXCL10 protein levels after TIPS insertion was associated with better survival in each cohort and analysed together. Circulating CXCL10 possibly reflects systemic inflammation and it is correlated with acute decompensation, ACLF and complications in patients with severe portal hypertension receiving TIPS. CXCL10 predicts survival in these patients and a decrease in CXCL10 after TIPS may be considered a good prognostic factor. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Limitations of Cox Proportional Hazards Analysis in Mortality Prediction of Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babińska Magdalena

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to evaluate the possibility of incorrect assessment of mortality risk factors in a group of patients affected by acute coronary syndrome, due to the lack of hazard proportionality in the Cox regression model. One hundred and fifty consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS and no age limit were enrolled. Univariable and multivariable Cox proportional hazard analyses were performed. The proportional hazard assumptions were verified using Schoenfeld residuals, χ2 test and rank correlation coefficient t between residuals and time. In the total group of 150 patients, 33 (22.0% deaths from any cause were registered in the follow-up time period of 64 months. The non-survivors were significantly older and had increased prevalence of diabetes and erythrocyturia, longer history of coronary artery disease, higher concentrations of serum creatinine, cystatin C, uric acid, glucose, C-reactive protein (CRP, homocysteine and B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP, and lower concentrations of serum sodium. No significant differences in echocardiography parameters were observed between groups. The following factors were risk of death factors and fulfilled the proportional hazard assumption in the univariable model: smoking, occurrence of diabetes and anaemia, duration of coronary artery disease, and abnormal serum concentrations of uric acid, sodium, homocysteine, cystatin C and NT-proBNP, while in the multivariable model, the risk of death factors were: smoking and elevated concentrations of homocysteine and NT-proBNP. The study has demonstrated that violation of the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox regression model may lead to creating a false model that does not include only time-independent predictive factors.

  16. Evaluation of eight biomarkers to predict short-term mortality in patients with acute severe dyspnea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ara-Somohano, Claire; Bonadona, Agnès; Carpentier, Françoise; Pavese, Patricia; Vesin, Aurélien; Hamidfar-Roy, Rebecca; Minet, Clémence; Vanzetto, Gerald; Schwebel, Carole; Timsit, Jean-Francois

    2017-08-01

    Being able to better predict risk and optimal care for patients presenting with acute dyspnea is critical. Prognostic biomarkers are well known: amino-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptide, troponin, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin. Some were more recently developed: mid-regional pro-A-type natriuretic peptide (Mid Pro-ANP), mid-regional-pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM), pro-endothelin, copeptin. The aim of the paper was to evaluate prognostic value of clinical findings and 8 biomarkers in patients with severe acute dyspnea. We designed a prospective cohort study targeting patients admitted in the Emergency Department and in Intensive Care Unit of a University Hospital. Inclusion criteria were acute dyspnea with SpO2 less than 92% and/or respiratory rate (RR) greater than or equal to 25 bpm. Clinical and biological data, including biomarker levels, were recorded. The contribution of the biomarkers in the prognosis was assessed using AUC-ROC curves and by multiple logistic regression. Three hundred and eighty four patients (median age 74 years, 28-day mortality 17%) were enrolled. All biomarkers were available for 317 patients. Main diagnoses were sepsis in 141 cases (36.7%), and acute heart failure in 84 (21.9%) cases. All biomarkers were correlated with prognosis. Pro-ADM (AUC-ROC=0.731; 95% CI: 0.658-0.804) showed the best accuracy. The parameters independently associated with prognosis led to a clinical/biological model with an AUC=0.809 and a good calibration (P (HLchi2)=0.9). Three biomarkers added prognostic information to the model: MR-proADM (P=0.005), copeptin (P=0.006) and troponin (P=0.05). Biomarkers can contribute to determine the day-28 outcome of patients with acute severe dyspnea.

  17. Inclusion of coexisting morbidity in a TBSA% and age based model for the prediction of mortality after burns does not increase its predictive power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pompermaier, Laura; Steinvall, Ingrid; Fredrikson, Mats; Sjöberg, Folke

    2015-12-01

    Several models for predicting mortality have been developed for patients with burns, and the most commonly used are based on age and total body surface area (TBSA%). They often show good predictive precision as depicted by high values for area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC). However the effect of coexisting morbidity on such prediction models has not to our knowledge been thoroughly examined. We hypothesised that adding it to a previously published model (based on age, TBSA%, full thickness burns, gender, and need for mechanical ventilation) would further improve its predictive power. We studied 772 patients admitted during the period 1997-2008 to the Linköping University Hospital, National Burn Centre with any type of burns. We defined coexisting morbidity as any of the medical conditions listed in the Charlson list, as well as psychiatric disorders or drug or alcohol misuse. We added coexisting medical conditions to the model for predicting mortality (age, TBSA%, and need for mechanical ventilation) to determine whether it improved the model as assessed by changes in deviances between the models. Mean (SD) age and TBSA% was 35 (26) years and 13 (17) %, respectively. Among 725 patients who survived, 105 (14%) had one or more coexisting condition, compared with 28 (60%) among those 47 who died. The presence of coexisting conditions increased with age (pprediction model in this study, based on the variables age, TBSA%, and need for mechanical ventilation was 0.980 (n=772); after inclusion of coexisting morbidity in the model, the AUC improved only marginally, to 0.986. The model was not significantly better either. Adding coexisting morbidity to a model for prediction of mortality after a burn based on age, TBSA%, and the need for mechanical ventilation did not significantly improve its predictive value. This is probably because coexisting morbidity is automatically adjusted for by age in the original model. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

  18. Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise and prediction of cardiovascular events: One stone to kill two birds?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tellier, Philippe [Centre de Medecine Nucleaire de l' Artois, Clinique Sainte Catherine, 62 223 Sainte Catherine Les Arras (France)]. E-mail: phtellier2@wanadoo.fr; Lecouffe, Pascal [Centre de Medecine Nucleaire de l' Artois, Clinique Sainte Catherine, 62 223 Sainte Catherine Les Arras (France); Zureik, Mahmoud [National Institute of Health and Medical Research (INSERM), Unit 508, Institut Pasteur de Lille (France)

    2007-02-01

    Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is commonly associated with a high cardiovascular mortality and morbidity as a marker of plurifocal atherosclerosis. Whether exercise thallium perfusion muscular asymmetry in the legs associated with PAD has prognostic value is unknown. Such a hypothesis was evaluated in a prospective study which remains the gold standard in clinical research. Methods and results: Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise (SCPSE) was measured at the end of a maximal or symptom-limited treadmill exercise test in 358 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). During the follow-up period (mean 85.3{+-}32.8 months), 93 cardiovascular events and deaths (incident cases) occurred. Among those incident cases, the percentage of subjects with higher SCPSE values (third tertile) was 45.2%, versus 29.1% in controls (lower tertiles) (p=0.005). In stepwise multivariate analysis performed with the Cox proportional hazards model, previous CAD and SCPSE were the only significant independent predictors of prognosis. The multivariate relative risk of cardiovascular death or event in subjects with higher values of SCPSE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.15-3.21; p<0.01). Conclusions: Scintigraphic calf perfusion asymmetry after exercise was independently associated with incident cardiovascular events in high-risk subjects. This index, which is easily and quickly calculated, could be used for evaluation of cardiovascular risk.

  19. The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ting Hway Wong

    Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

  20. Symptoms of depression and anxiety predict mortality in patients undergoing oral anticoagulation: Results from the thrombEVAL study program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michal, Matthias; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Keller, Karsten; Göbel, Sebastian; Coldewey, Meike; Ullmann, Alexander; Schulz, Andreas; Lamparter, Heidrun; Münzel, Thomas; Reiner, Iris; Beutel, Manfred E; Wild, Philipp S

    2015-01-01

    Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent in cardiovascular patients. Therefore, we examined whether the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4, measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety) predicts all-cause mortality in outpatients with long-term oral anticoagulation (OAC). The sample comprised n=1384 outpatients from a regular medical care setting receiving long-term OAC with vitamin K antagonists. At baseline, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed with the PHQ-4 and the past medical history was taken. The outcome was all-cause mortality in the 24 month observation period. The median follow-up time was 13.3 months. N=191 patients from n=1384 died (death rate 13.8%). Each point increase in the PHQ-4 score was associated with a 10% increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.16) after adjustment for age, sex, high school graduation, partnership, smoking, obesity, frailty according to the Barthel Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index and CHA2DS2-VASc score. The depression component (PHQ-2) increased mortality by 22% and anxiety (GAD-2) by 11% respectively. Neither medical history of any mental disorder, nor intake of antidepressants, anxiolytics or hypnotics predicted excess mortality. Elevated symptoms of depression and, to a lesser degree, symptoms of anxiety are independently associated with all-cause mortality in OAC outpatients. The PHQ-4 questionnaire provides valuable prognostic information. These findings emphasize the need for implementing regular screening procedures and the development and evaluation of appropriate psychosocial treatment approaches for OAC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Spiritual peace predicts 5-year mortality in congestive heart failure patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Crystal L; Aldwin, Carolyn M; Choun, Soyoung; George, Login; Suresh, Damodhar P; Bliss, Deborah

    2016-03-01

    Spirituality is favorably related to depression, quality of life, hospitalizations, and other important outcomes in congestive heart failure (CHF) patients but has not been examined as a predictor of mortality risk in this population. Given the well-known difficulties in managing CHF, we hypothesized that spirituality would be associated with lower mortality risk, controlling for baseline demographics, functional status, health behaviors, and religiousness. Participants were 191 CHF patients (64% male; M age = 68.6 years, SD = 10.1) who completed a baseline survey and were then followed for 5 years. Nearly 1/3 of the sample (32%) died during the study period. Controlling for demographics and health status, smoking more than doubled the risk of mortality, whereas alcohol consumption was associated with slightly lower risk of mortality. Importantly, adherence to healthy lifestyle recommendations was associated with halved mortality risk. Although both religion and spirituality were associated with better health behaviors at baseline in bivariate analyses, a proportional hazard model showed that only spirituality was significantly associated with reduced mortality risk (by 20%), controlling for demographics, health status, and health behaviors. Experiencing spiritual peace, along with adherence to a healthy lifestyle, were better predictors of mortality risk in this sample of CHF patients than were physical health indicators such as functional status and comorbidity. Future research might profitably examine the efficacy of attending to spiritual issues along with standard lifestyle interventions. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  2. Serum globulin predicts all-cause mortality for life insurance applicants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

    2014-01-01

    Determine the relative mortality in apparently healthy adults with various levels of serum globulin. By use of the Social Security Death Master File, mortality in 2010 was determined for 7.7 million life insurance applicants age 20 to 89 providing blood samples with valid globulin results between 1992 and 2006. Relative mortality by Cox regression for bands of globulin values was determined by age-sex group, with age split into 20 to 59 and 60 to 89, with each grouping also including age as a covariate. Further analysis was conducted by excluding applicants with elevations of other test values associated with increased globulin levels and mortality risk. After accounting for the mortality impact of frequently associated laboratory test abnormalities including BMI, alkaline phosphatase and albumin, relative mortality was found to increase gradually for globulin values > 3.2 g/dL. Values > 4.0 were associated with a mortality risk that was approximately doubled. There is also a small increased risk for globulin values life insurance applicants. In many cases, other laboratory findings were not informative of the risk.

  3. Moderate alcohol consumption predicts long-term mortality in elderly subjects with chronic heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gargiulo, G; Testa, G; Cacciatore, F; Mazzella, F; Galizia, G; Della-Morte, D; Langellotto, A; Pirozzi, G; Ferro, G; Ferrara, N; Rengo, F; Abete, P

    2013-01-01

    Moderate alcohol consumption is related to a reduction of mortality. However, this phenomenon is not well established in the elderly, especially in the presence of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of the study was to verify the effect of moderate alcohol consumption on 12-year mortality in elderly community-dwelling with and without CHF. community-dwelling from 5 regions of Italy. A cohort of 1332 subjects aged 65 and older. Mortality after 12-year follow-up in elderly subjects (≥65 years old) with and without CHF was studied. Moderate alcohol consumption was considered ≤250 ml/day (drinkers). In the absence of CHF (n=947), mortality was 42.2% in drinkers vs. 53.7% in non-drinker elderly subjects (p=0.021). In contrast, in the presence of CHF (n=117), mortality was 86.5% in drinkers vs. 69.7% in non-drinker elderly subjects (p=0.004). Accordingly, Cox regression analysis shows that a moderate alcohol consumption is protective of mortality in the absence (HR=0.79; CI 95% 0.66-0.95; pmoderate alcohol consumption is associated with an increased long-term mortality risk in the elderly in the presence of CHF.

  4. Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

    2017-05-01

    To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

  5. Orosomucoid in urine predicts cardiovascular and over-all mortality in patients with Type II diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Merete S; Hommel, E; Magid, E

    2002-01-01

    %) patients had increased urinary orosomucoid excretion rates. During the study period 41 patients died; out of these 23 patients died of cardiovascular diseases. Odds ratio for all-cause mortality was 2.50 (95 % CI 1.00-6.22) and odds ratio for cardiovascular mortality was 9.81 (1.31-73.6) having increased...... urinary orosomucoid excretion rate at baseline (odds ratios adjusted for age, sex, duration of diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, weight, medication, HbA1 c, plasma creatinine and urinary albumin excretion rate). Urinary albumin excretion rate was an independent predictor of all-cause mortality when...

  6. Prediction of all-cause mortality with copeptin in cardio-cerebrovascular patients: A meta-analysis of prospective studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Hao; Sun, Ting; Ma, Bing; Yang, Bo-wen; Zhang, Yao; Huang, Dong-hui; Shi, Jing-pu

    2015-07-01

    Measurement of the biomarker copeptin may help identify disease severity and risk of mortality for a various diseases. This study sought to determine the relationship between copeptin and all-cause mortality of patients with cardio-cerebrovascular disease. Database of Medline and Web of Science were searched for studies with data involving the baseline copeptin levels and subsequent all-cause mortality outcomes. The pooled HRs of all-cause mortality were calculated and presented with 95%CIs. Subgroup analysis and sensitivity analysis were conducted to explore the possible sources of heterogeneity. Data from 14,395 participants were derived from 28 prospective studies. Higher copeptin significantly increased the risk of all-cause mortality (per unit copeptin: HR=1.020, 95%CI=1.004-1.036; log unit copeptin: HR=2.884, 95%CI=1.844-4.512; categorical copeptin: HR=3.371, 95%CI=2.077-5.472). Subgroup analysis indicated that the risk of all-cause death was higher in cerebrovascular patients (per unit copeptin: HR=2.537, 95%CI=0.956-6.731; log unit copeptin: HR=3.419, 95%CI=2.391-4.888) than cardiovascular patients (per unit copeptin: HR=1.011, 95%CI=1.002-1.020; log unit copeptin: HR=2.009, 95%CI=1.119-3.608). Copeptin is associated with all-cause mortality of patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease. Our study suggests that copeptin seems to be a promising novel biomarker for prediction of mortality in cardio-cerebrovascular patients, especially for cerebrovascular patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Multiple, but not traditional risk factors predict mortality in older people: the Concord Health and Ageing in Men Project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirani, Vasant; Naganathan, Vasi; Blyth, Fiona; Le Couteur, David G; Gnjidic, Danijela; Stanaway, Fiona F; Seibel, Markus J; Waite, Louise M; Handelsman, David J; Cumming, Robert G

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to identify the common risk factors for mortality in community-dwelling older men. A prospective population-based study was conducted with a median of 6.7 years of follow-up. Participants included 1705 men aged ≥70 years at baseline (2005-2007) living in the community in Sydney, Australia. Demographic information, lifestyle factors, health status, self-reported history of diseases, physical performance measures, blood pressure, height and weight, disability (activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental ADLs, instrumental ADLs (IADLs)), cognitive status, depressive symptoms and blood analyte measures were considered. Cox regression analyses were conducted to model predictors delete time until of mortality. During follow-up, 461 men (27 %) died. Using Cox proportional hazards model, significant predictors of delete time to time to mortality included in the final model (p alcohol were protective against mortality. Compared to men with less than or equal to one risk factor, the hazard ratio in men with three risk factors was 2.5; with four risk factors, it was 4.0; with five risk factors, it was 4.9; and for six or more risk factors, it was 11.4, respectively. We have identified common risk factors that predict mortality that may be useful in making clinical decisions among older people living in the community. Our findings suggest that, in primary care, screening and management of multiple risk factors are important to consider for extending survival, rather than simply considering individual risk factors in isolation. Some of the "traditional" risk factors for mortality in a younger population, including high blood pressure, hypercholesterolaemia, overweight and obesity and diabetes, were not independent predictors of mortality in this population of older men.

  8. In-hospital major bleeding predicts mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: an analysis of ZATPOL Registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budaj-Fidecka, Anna; Kurzyna, Marcin; Fijałkowska, Anna; Żyłkowska, Joanna; Wieteska, Maria; Florczyk, Michał; Szewczyk, Grzegorz; Torbicki, Adam; Filipiak, Krzysztof J; Opolski, Grzegorz

    2013-10-09

    There are no data on the association between in-hospital bleeding and mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). To assess whether in-hospital major bleeding predicts in-hospital and 90-day mortality in patients with PE confirmed objectively using validated diagnostic criteria. ZATPOL is a prospective national registry of consecutive patients with suspected PE admitted to 86 cardiology departments across Poland from January 2007 to September 2008. We retrospectively studied the influence of in-hospital bleeding on outcomes. Of 2015 patients enrolled, 1216 were locally diagnosed with PE. Validated diagnostic criteria according to the European Society of Cardiology guidelines were met in 1112 patients. In the latter group, major bleeding occurred in 3.6%, and 0.5% had fatal bleeding. Thrombolytic therapy was administered to 11% of patients. Vascular access site bleeding was the most common (40%). Except for hypotension or shock and cancer, major bleeding was the strongest independent predictor of both in-hospital (OR 3.47; P=0.003) and 90-day mortality (OR 2.75; P=0.009). Other factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality were: shock or hypotension (OR 7.45; Pshock or hypotension (OR 5.23; P71 years (OR 1.5; P=0.063). In-hospital major bleeding is a newly described strong independent predictor of both in-hospital and 90-day mortality in patients with objectively confirmed PE. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Predictive validity of the total health index for all-cause mortality assessed in the Komo-Ise cohort.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, Hiroaki; Takeuchi, Kazuo; Sasazawa, Yosiaki; Otani, Tetsuya; Koyama, Hiroshi; Suzuki, Shosuke

    2008-01-01

    The Total Health Index (THI), a self-administered questionnaire developed in Japan, is used for symptom assessment and stress management of employees and others; however, it has not been reported whether it can predict mortality risk. The THI, with 12 primary and 5 secondary scales, was applied to a cohort consisting of middle-aged residents in Japan. This study, called the Komo-Ise cohort study, was started in 1993. The scale scores were related to 481 deaths from all causes among 10,816 residents over 93 months. The statistics were tested by the Cox hazard model and adjusted for three background variables (sex, age, and district where the subject resided). Five of the scales [depression and aggression (primary scales), and psychosomatics, neurotics, and schizophrenics (secondary scales)] indicated significant hazard ratios for mortality. The lowest quintile group of the aggression scale score had the largest hazard ratio of 2.58, compared with the middle quintile group (95% confidence interval: 1.88-3.52). The psychosomatics, neurotic scales and depression scales also had a minimum hazard ratio in the middle quintile group. One of the secondary scales, T1, which represents a somatoform disorder, had a significant linear relationship with the mortality risk, although its proportionality with the cumulative mortality rates was not satisfactory. Five scales of the THI were significantly related to mortality risk in the Komo-Ise cohort, which could be used for score evaluation and in the personal health advice system of the THI.

  10. Mutation in APOA1 predicts increased risk of ischaemic heart disease and total mortality without low HDL cholesterol levels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haase, C L; Frikke-Schmidt, R; Nordestgaard, B G

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To determine whether mutations in APOA1 affect levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and to predict risk of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and total mortality in the general population. BACKGROUND: Epidemiologically, risk of IHD is inversely related to HDL cholesterol...... levels. Mutations in apolipoprotein (apo) A-I, the major protein constituent of HDL, might be associated with low HDL cholesterol and predispose to IHD and early death. DESIGN: We resequenced APOA1 in 190 individuals and examined the effect of mutations on HDL cholesterol, risk of IHD, myocardial...... effects of mutations in adenovirus-transfected mice. RESULTS: We identified a new mutation, A164S (1 : 500 in the general population), which predicted hazard ratios for IHD, MI and total mortality of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.6-6.5], 5.5 (95% CI: 2.6-11.7) and 2.5 (95% CI: 1...

  11. Body Composition Monitor Assessing Malnutrition in the Hemodialysis Population Independently Predicts Mortality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosenberger, Jaroslav; Kissova, Viera; Majernikova, Maria; Straussova, Zuzana; Boldizsar, Jan

    Objective: Malnutrition is a known predictor of mortality in the general and hemodialysis populations. However, diagnosing malnutrition in dialysis patients remains problematic. Body composition monitoring (BCM) is currently used mainly for assessing overhydratation in hemodialysis patients, but it

  12. QTc dispersion predicts cardiac mortality in the elderly: the Rotterdam Study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C. de Bruyne (Martine); A.W. Hoes (Arno); J.A. Kors (Jan); J.H. van Bemmel (Jan); D.E. Grobbee (Diederick); A. Hofman (Albert)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractBACKGROUND: Increased QTc dispersion has been associated with an increased risk for ventricular arrhythmias and cardiac death in selected patient populations. We examined the association between computerized QTc-dispersion measurements and mortality in a

  13. The Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Independently Predicts Mortality in Diabetic Foot Ulcers Patients Undergoing Amputations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Hailing; Ye, Tingting; Ge, Shengjie; Zhuo, Ruyi; Zhu, Hong

    2017-01-01

    Objective. Patients with diabetic foot ulcers undergoing amputations have poor prognosis. Malnutrition usually occurs in this population and is associated with increased risk of mortality. The geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a widely used, simple, and well-established tool to assess nutritional risk. The purpose of this study was to assess the association between GNRI and all-cause mortality in diabetic foot ulcers patients undergoing minor or major amputations. Methods. This was a retrospective cohort study including 271 adult patients. Patients were divided into two groups according to a GNRI cutoff value of 92, and characteristics and mortality were compared between the two groups. Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed to explore the association between GNRI and mortality. Result. GNRI (p risk factors. Conclusion. GNRI on admission might be a novel clinical predictor for the incidence of death in patients with diabetic foot ulcers who were undergoing amputations.

  14. Early intensive care sedation predicts long-term mortality in ventilated critically ill patients

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Shehabi, Yahya; Bellomo, Rinaldo; Reade, Michael C; Bailey, Michael; Bass, Frances; Howe, Belinda; McArthur, Colin; Seppelt, Ian M; Webb, Steve; Weisbrodt, Leonie

    2012-01-01

    .... To investigate the relationships between early sedation and time to extubation, delirium, and hospital and 180-day mortality among ventilated critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). Multicenter...

  15. A risk score for predicting mortality in patients with asymptomatic mild to moderate aortic stenosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holme, Ingar; Pedersen, Terje R; Boman, Kurt

    2012-01-01

    BackgroundPrognostic information for asymptomatic patients with aortic stenosis (AS) from prospective studies is scarce and there is no risk score available to assess mortality.ObjectivesTo develop an easily calculable score, from which clinicians could stratify patients into high and lower risk ...... of mortality, using data from the Simvastatin and Ezetimibe in Aortic Stenosis (SEAS) study.MethodA search for significant prognostic factors (p...

  16. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lassale, Camille; Gunter, Marc J; Romaguera, Dora; Peelen, Linda M; Van der Schouw, Yvonne T; Beulens, Joline W J; Freisling, Heinz; Muller, David C; Ferrari, Pietro; Huybrechts, Inge; Fagherazzi, Guy; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Affret, Aurélie; Overvad, Kim; Dahm, Christina C; Olsen, Anja; Roswall, Nina; Tsilidis, Konstantinos K; Katzke, Verena A; Kühn, Tilman; Buijsse, Brian; Quirós, José-Ramón; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Etxezarreta, Nerea; Huerta, José María; Barricarte, Aurelio; Bonet, Catalina; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Key, Timothy J; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Bamia, Christina; Lagiou, Pagona; Palli, Domenico; Agnoli, Claudia; Tumino, Rosario; Fasanelli, Francesca; Panico, Salvatore; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Boer, Jolanda M A; Sonestedt, Emily; Nilsson, Lena Maria; Renström, Frida; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Skeie, Guri; Lund, Eiliv; Moons, Karel G M; Riboli, Elio; Tzoulaki, Ioanna

    2016-01-01

    Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI) in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre) was 0.75 (0.72-0.79) to 0.88 (0.84-0.92) for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83) to 0.84 (0.76-0.92) for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83) to 0.91 (0.85-0.97) for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  17. A comparison between the APACHE II and Charlson Index Score for predicting hospital mortality in critically ill patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quach, Susan; Hennessy, Deirdre A; Faris, Peter; Fong, Andrew; Quan, Hude; Doig, Christopher

    2009-07-30

    Risk adjustment and mortality prediction in studies of critical care are usually performed using acuity of illness scores, such as Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), which emphasize physiological derangement. Common risk adjustment systems used in administrative datasets, like the Charlson index, are entirely based on the presence of co-morbid illnesses. The purpose of this study was to compare the discriminative ability of the Charlson index to the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in adult multisystem ICU patients. This was a population-based cohort design. The study sample consisted of adult (>17 years of age) residents of the Calgary Health Region admitted to a multisystem ICU between April 2002 and March 2004. Clinical data were collected prospectively and linked to hospital outcome data. Multiple regression analyses were used to compare the performance of APACHE II and the Charlson index. The Charlson index was a poor predictor of mortality (C = 0.626). There was minimal difference between a baseline model containing age, sex and acute physiology score (C = 0.74) and models containing either chronic health points (C = 0.76) or Charlson index variations (C = 0.75, 0.76, 0.77). No important improvement in prediction occurred when the Charlson index was added to the full APACHE II model (C = 0.808 to C = 0.813). The Charlson index does not perform as well as the APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality in ICU patients. However, when acuity of illness scores are unavailable or are not recorded in a standard way, the Charlson index might be considered as an alternative method of risk adjustment and therefore facilitate comparisons between intensive care units.

  18. Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camille Lassale

    Full Text Available Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre was 0.75 (0.72-0.79 to 0.88 (0.84-0.92 for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83 to 0.84 (0.76-0.92 for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83 to 0.91 (0.85-0.97 for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

  19. Predicting Mechanical Ventilation and Mortality: Early and Late Indicators in Steven-Johnson Syndrome and Toxic Epidermal Necrolysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beck, Anna; Cooney, Ryan; Gamelli, Richard L; Mosier, Michael J

    2016-01-01

    Steven-Johnson syndrome (SJS) and toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN) are characterized by loss of the epidermis, often accompanied by sloughing of the oral mucosa and airway, which may be associated with the need for mechanical ventilation. We retrospectively examined our SJS and TEN population for factors predictive of the need for mechanical ventilation and mortality. Over more than a 7-year period, 74 subjects of ≥18 years old with biopsy-confirmed SJS-TEN were identified. Variables within the first 3 days of admission and throughout the entire hospital stay were analyzed for their value in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation and mortality. Predictive variables were examined using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Of our 74 subjects, 28 (37.8%) required mechanical ventilation and 11 (13.9%) died, all of whom were intubated. Patients requiring ventilation had a significantly higher %TBSA loss of epidermis on admission and progressive epidermal loss after admission. On multivariate analysis, acute kidney injury within the first 3 days of admission and fewer days from symptom onset to admission were statistically significant in predicting need for mechanical ventilation. In addition, the early need for mechanical ventilation, early serum bicarbonate <20 mm/L, and older age were all associated with higher mortality on multivariate analysis. In conclusion, the need for mechanical ventilation in adult TEN subjects is associated with higher mortality. This is the first time that mechanical ventilation has been specifically examined in the recent U.S. SJS and TEN population. The early recognition of patients at risk for ventilation may help guide management, especially in those patients admitted early after symptom development with acute kidney injury and extensive, progressing epidermal loss.

  20. Description of a risk predictive model of 30-day postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Farber, Alik

    2017-01-01

    Despite vast improvement in the field of vascular surgery, elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair still leads to perioperative death. Patients with asymptomatic AAAs, therefore, would benefit from an individual risk assessment to help with decisions regarding operative intervention. The purpose of this study was to describe such a 30-day postoperative (POD) risk prediction model using American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Project (NSQIP) data. The NSQIP database (2005-2011) was queried for patients undergoing elective AAA repair using open or endovascular techniques. Clinical variables and known predictors of mortality were included in a full prediction model. These variables included procedure type, patient's age, functional dependence and comorbidities, and surgeon's specialty. Backward elimination with alpha-level of 0.2 was used to construct a parsimonious model. Model discrimination was evaluated in equally sized risk quintiles. The overall mortality rate for 18,917 elective AAA patients was 1.7%. In this model, surgeon's specialty was not predictive of POD. The most significant factors affecting POD included open repair (odds ratio [OR], 2.712; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.119-3.469; P 70 (OR, 2.243; 95% CI, 1.695-3.033; P model was reasonable (C-statistic = 0.751) and corrected to 0.736 after internal validation. The NSQIP model performed well predicting mortality among risk-group quintiles. The NSQIP risk prediction model is a robust vehicle to predict POD among patient undergoing elective AAA repair. This model can be used for risk stratification of patients undergoing elective AAA repair. Copyright © 2016 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparing the APACHE II score and IBM-10 score for predicting mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naeini, Alireza Emami; Abbasi, Saeid; Haghighipour, Somayeh; Shirani, Kiana

    2015-01-01

    VAP is defined as pneumonia in patients who use ventilators. The acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II) scoring system was originally developed for predicting mortality in patients who were admitted to the intensive care unit. Due to the complexity, a simpler score called IBMP-10 was developed. We designed the study to confirm and further investigate these two methods. This cross-sectional and analysis-descriptive study was done at the moment of VAP diagnosis on 60 patients in intensive care units. APACHE II and the IBMP-10 scores were calculated. ROC curves were generated to compare the new prediction rule with the APACHE II score. Results were reported as adjusted odds ratios with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Analyses were performed using SPSS, version 20 and P values of 0.05 were considered to be statistically significant. APACHE II Score means (P < 0.001) and IBMP-10 score (P < 0.001) means had significant increase in Non-survivor patient than in patients who survived. APACHE II can be used as a good prediction measure for mortality rate. In IBMP-10 method, specificity and PPV were greater than APACHE II, but in mc-nemar test, there was no significant difference between the two methods (P = 0.55). Both prediction rules had high NPV. In our study, survivors' prediction value in APACHE II was 46.7%, and in IBMP-10, it was 46.7%. IBMP-10, compared to APACHE II, has greater sensitivity, specificity, and AUC to predict mortality. So the consequence of the use of IBMP-10 was better than APACHE II.

  2. Adipose tissue and muscle attenuation as novel biomarkers predicting mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veld, Joyce; Vossen, Josephina A.; Torriani, Martin; Bredella, Miriam A. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Division of Musculoskeletal Imaging and Intervention, Department of Radiology, Boston, MA (United States); De Amorim Bernstein, Karen [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Department of Radiation Oncology, Francis H Burr Proton Therapy Center, Boston, MA (United States); Halpern, Elkan F. [Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Institute of Technology Assessment, Boston, MA (United States)

    2016-12-15

    To assess CT-attenuation of abdominal adipose tissue and psoas muscle as predictors of mortality in patients with sarcomas of the extremities. Our study was IRB approved and HIPAA compliant. The study group comprised 135 patients with history of extremity sarcoma (mean age: 53 ± 17 years) who underwent whole body PET/CT. Abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), visceral adipose tissue (VAT), and psoas muscle attenuation (HU) was assessed on non-contrast, attenuation-correction CT. Clinical information including survival, tumour stage, sarcoma type, therapy and pre-existing comorbidities were recorded. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine longitudinal associations between adipose tissue and muscle attenuation and mortality. There were 47 deaths over a mean follow-up period of 20 ± 17 months. Higher SAT and lower psoas attenuation were associated with increased mortality (p = 0.03 and p = 0.005, respectively), which remained significant after adjustment for age, BMI, sex, tumor stage, therapy, and comorbidities (p = 0.002 and p = 0.02, respectively). VAT attenuation was not associated with mortality. Attenuation of SAT and psoas muscle, assessed on non-contrast CT, are predictors of mortality in patients with extremity sarcomas, independent of other established prognostic factors, suggesting that adipose tissue and muscle attenuation could serve as novel biomarkers for mortality in patients with sarcomas. (orig.)

  3. A risk tertiles model for predicting mortality in patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome: age, plateau pressure, and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset can predict mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villar, Jesús; Pérez-Méndez, Lina; Basaldúa, Santiago; Blanco, Jesús; Aguilar, Gerardo; Toral, Darío; Zavala, Elizabeth; Romera, Miguel A; González-Díaz, Gumersindo; Nogal, Frutos Del; Santos-Bouza, Antonio; Ramos, Luís; Macías, Santiago; Kacmarek, Robert M

    2011-04-01

    Predicting mortality has become a necessary step for selecting patients for clinical trials and defining outcomes. We examined whether stratification by tertiles of respiratory and ventilatory variables at the onset of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) identifies patients with different risks of death in the intensive care unit. We performed a secondary analysis of data from 220 patients included in 2 multicenter prospective independent trials of ARDS patients mechanically ventilated with a lung-protective strategy. Using demographic, pulmonary, and ventilation data collected at ARDS onset, we derived and validated a simple prediction model based on a population-based stratification of variable values into low, middle, and high tertiles. The derivation cohort included 170 patients (all from one trial) and the validation cohort included 50 patients (all from a second trial). Tertile distribution for age, plateau airway pressure (P(plat)), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at ARDS onset identified subgroups with different mortalities, particularly for the highest-risk tertiles: age (> 62 years), P(plat) (> 29 cm H(2)O), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) (< 112 mm Hg). Risk was defined by the number of coexisting high-risk tertiles: patients with no high-risk tertiles had a mortality of 12%, whereas patients with 3 high-risk tertiles had 90% mortality (P < .001). A prediction model based on tertiles of patient age, P(plat), and P(aO(2))/F(IO(2)) at the time the patient meets ARDS criteria identifies patients with the lowest and highest risk of intensive care unit death.

  4. Geriatric nutritional risk index predicts functional dependency and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinugasa, Yoshiharu; Kato, Masahiko; Sugihara, Shinobu; Hirai, Masayuki; Yamada, Kensaku; Yanagihara, Kiyotaka; Yamamoto, Kazuhiro

    2013-01-01

    The clinical significance of nutritional risk assessment in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) remains undefined. Geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) is a simple nutritional assessment tool for elderly subjects. Its predictive value was evaluated in patients with HFpEF, a common HF phenotype in the elderly population. The present study enrolled 152 consecutive patients (mean age, 77 ± 11 years; male, 53.9%) who were hospitalized with HFpEF at the authors' institution. GNRI on admission was calculated as follows: 14.89 × serum albumin (g/dl)+41.7×body mass index/22. Characteristics and mortality (median follow-up of 2.1 years) were compared between 2 groups: low GNRI (nutritional risk; and high GNRI (≥ 92) with no or low nutritional risk. Patients in the low-GNRI group were more often female, and had lower serum hemoglobin and sodium, but higher serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN), C-reactive protein, and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) compared to those in the high-GNRI group (Pindex was significantly lower in the low-GNRI group than the high-GNRI group (P<0.05). On Cox hazard analysis, lower GNRI predicted increased mortality independent of age, gender, prior HF hospitalization, and higher BUN and BNP (P<0.01).  GNRI may be useful for predicting functional dependency and mortality in patients with HFpEF.  

  5. Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people: Population based prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke; Mortensen, Erik Lykke; Westendorp, Rudi G J

    2017-07-01

    To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability to discriminate mortality risks was assessed. Three-year mortality risks, hazard ratios, change in individual mortality risks, three-year area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Three-year mortality risks increased 41-folds within an age span of 50years. Hazard ratios per change in health indicator became less significant with increasing age (p-value<0·001). AUC for three-year mortality prediction based on age and sex was 76·9% (95% CI 75·5% to 78·3%). Information on health indicators modified individual three-year mortality risk predictions up to 30%, both upwards and downwards, each adding <2% discriminative power. The added discrimination ability of all health indicators gradually declined from an extra 4% at age 50-59 to <1% in the oldest old. Trends were similar for one-year mortality and not different between sexes, levels of education, and household income. Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age. Copyright © 2017 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. The sequential trauma score - a new instrument for the sequential mortality prediction in major trauma*

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huber-Wagner S

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background There are several well established scores for the assessment of the prognosis of major trauma patients that all have in common that they can be calculated at the earliest during intensive care unit stay. We intended to develop a sequential trauma score (STS that allows prognosis at several early stages based on the information that is available at a particular time. Study design In a retrospective, multicenter study using data derived from the Trauma Registry of the German Trauma Society (2002-2006, we identified the most relevant prognostic factors from the patients basic data (P, prehospital phase (A, early (B1, and late (B2 trauma room phase. Univariate and logistic regression models as well as score quality criteria and the explanatory power have been calculated. Results A total of 2,354 patients with complete data were identified. From the patients basic data (P, logistic regression showed that age was a significant predictor of survival (AUCmodel p, area under the curve = 0.63. Logistic regression of the prehospital data (A showed that blood pressure, pulse rate, Glasgow coma scale (GCS, and anisocoria were significant predictors (AUCmodel A = 0.76; AUCmodel P + A = 0.82. Logistic regression of the early trauma room phase (B1 showed that peripheral oxygen saturation, GCS, anisocoria, base excess, and thromboplastin time to be significant predictors of survival (AUCmodel B1 = 0.78; AUCmodel P +A + B1 = 0.85. Multivariate analysis of the late trauma room phase (B2 detected cardiac massage, abbreviated injury score (AIS of the head ≥ 3, the maximum AIS, the need for transfusion or massive blood transfusion, to be the most important predictors (AUCmodel B2 = 0.84; AUCfinal model P + A + B1 + B2 = 0.90. The explanatory power - a tool for the assessment of the relative impact of each segment to mortality - is 25% for P, 7% for A, 17% for B1 and 51% for B2. A spreadsheet for the easy calculation of the sequential trauma

  7. Seven-Day Mortality Can Be Predicted in Medical Patients by Blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory Rate, Loss of Independence, and Peripheral Oxygen Saturation (the PARIS Score)

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brabrand, Mikkel; Lassen, Annmarie Touborg; Knudsen, Torben

    2015-01-01

    . The outcome was defined as seven-day all-cause mortality. 76 patients (2.5%) met the endpoint in the development cohort, 57 (2.0%) in the first validation cohort, and 111 (4.3%) in the second. Systolic blood Pressure, Age, Respiratory rate, loss of Independence, and peripheral oxygen Saturation were...... with a PARIS score ≥3, sensitivity was 62.5-74.0%, specificity 85.9-91.1%, positive predictive value 11.2-17.5%, and negative predictive value 98.3-99.3%. Patients with a score ≤1 had a low mortality (≤1%); with 2, intermediate mortality (2-5%); and ≥3, high mortality (≥10%). CONCLUSIONS: Seven-day mortality...... can be predicted upon admission with high sensitivity and specificity and excellent negative predictive values....

  8. Predicting older adults' maintenance in exercise participation using an integrated social psychological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Stiggelbout, M.; Hopman-Rock, M.; Crone, M.; Lechner, L.; Mechelen, W. van

    2006-01-01

    Little is known about the predictors of maintenance in organized exercise programmes. The aim of this study was to investigate the behavioral predictors of maintenance of exercise participation in older adults, using an integrated social psychological model. To this end, we carried out a prospective

  9. Do Changes in Tympanic Temperature Predict Changes in Affective Valence during High-Intensity Exercise?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Legrand, Fabien D.; Joly, Philippe M.; Bertucci, William M.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Increased core (brain or body) temperature that accompanies exercise has been posited to play an influential role in affective responses to exercise. However, findings in support of this hypothesis have been equivocal, and most of the performed studies have been done in relation to anxiety. The aim of the present study was to investigate…

  10. Serum T3 level can predict cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality rates in CKD patients with proteinuria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jae Won; Han, Seung Tae; Song, Shin Han; Kim, Min Keun; Kim, Jae Seok; Choi, Seung Ok; Han, Byoung-Geun

    2012-01-01

    Patients with proteinuria frequently show changes in thyroid hormone levels. Serum T3 depression predicts a negative outcome in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients and may be associated with cardiovascular complications or chronic inflammation. Few studies have explored the relationship between thyroid hormone dysregulation and clinical outcome in patients with proteinuria. We reviewed thyroid function test results obtained from 211 patients with 24 h urinary protein excretion greater than 150 mg/day and found a correlation of thyroid hormone level with cardiovascular events and mortality. T3 decreased with age (p = 0.001) and 24 h urine albumin (p = 0.028). Free T4 decreased in accordance with 24 h urine protein and serum creatinine (p = 0.034 and p = 0.033, respectively). In the Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, lower cumulative survival, higher cardiovascular events, and mortality were found in the low T3 group compared with the normal T3 group (p = 0.000, p = 0.013, and p = 0.001, respectively). In Cox regression analysis, we observed that, with low T3, decreased sodium, and old age, the incidence of cardiovascular complications (p = 0.000, p = 0.016, and p = 0.000, respectively), cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.000, p = 0.048, and p = 0.001, respectively), and all-cause mortality (p = 0.000, p = 0.017, and p = 0.000, respectively) increased. In CKD patients with proteinuria, low T3 concentration predicted all-cause mortality and cardiovascular event independently of the severity of proteinuria.

  11. APACHE III score on ICU admission predicts hospital mortality after open thoracoabdominal and open abdominal aortic aneurysm repair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kabbani, Loay S; Escobar, Guillermo A; Knipp, Brian; Deatrick, Christopher B; Duran, Ahmet; Upchurch, Gilbert R; Napolitano, Lena M

    2010-11-01

    No prior studies, to our knowledge, have examined the performance of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) III score in predicting mortality of patients undergoing open thoracoabdominal aortic aneurysm (TAAA) or open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair. We sought to evaluate APACHE III scores in the prediction of postoperative mortality in elective TAAA and AAA repairs. Over a 9-year period (July 1998 through June 2007), prospective data (demographics, admitting diagnosis, APACHE III score, intensive care unit [ICU] and hospital length of stay, ICU and hospital mortality) were collected by a dedicated APACHE III coordinator for all patients admitted to a tertiary academic surgical ICU (20 beds). Observational and comparative analyses were performed. Emergent repairs for ruptured aneurysms were excluded from the study. Forty-one patients underwent open elective repair of TAAA and 404 underwent open elective repair of AAA. Mean age of the TAAA group was 63.4 ± 9.8 years and the AAA group was 70.3 ± 8.3 years. Mean APACHE III score was 54 (range: 10-103) for the TAAA group and 45 (range: 11-103) for the AAA group. The in-hospital mortality rate for TAAA patients was 4.9% (n = 2) and for AAA patients was 2.0% (n = 8). Mean APACHE III scores on ICU admission were significantly greater in nonsurvivors versus survivors (79 vs. 45, p APACHE III score on ICU admission was an excellent discriminator of hospital mortality (receiver operating characteristic and area under the curve 0.92 [standard error of 0.05, 95% CI: 0.83-1.0]). APACHE III is an accurate predictor of survival to hospital discharge in both open elective TAAA and AAA repairs. Copyright © 2010 Annals of Vascular Surgery Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Development of an oncological-multidimensional prognostic index (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunello, Antonella; Fontana, Andrea; Zafferri, Valeria; Panza, Francesco; Fiduccia, Pasquale; Basso, Umberto; Copetti, Massimiliano; Lonardi, Sara; Roma, Anna; Falci, Cristina; Monfardini, Silvio; Cella, Alberto; Pilotto, Alberto; Zagonel, Vittorina

    2016-05-01

    A multidimensional prognostic index (MPI) based on a comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) has been developed and validated in independent cohorts of older patients demonstrating good accuracy in predicting one-year mortality. The aim of this study was to develop a cancer-specific modified MPI (Onco-MPI) for mortality prediction in older cancer patients. We enrolled 658 new cancer subjects ≥70 years (mean age 77.1 years, 433 females, 65.8 %) attending oncological outpatient services from September 2004 to June 2011. The Onco-MPI was calculated according to a validated algorithm as a weighted linear combination of the following CGA domains: age, sex, basal and instrumental activities of daily living, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, mini-mental state examination, body mass index, Cumulative Illness Rating Scale, number of drugs and the presence of caregiver. Cancer sites (breast 46.5 %, colorectal 21.3 %, lung 6.4 %, prostate 5.5 %, urinary tract 5.0 %, other 15.3 %) and cancer stages (I 37 %, II 22 %, III 19 %, IV 22 %) were also included in the model. All-cause mortality was recorded. Three grades of severity of the Onco-MPI score (low risk: 0.0-0.46, medium risk: 0.47-0.63, high risk: 0.64-1.0) were calculated using RECPAM method. Discriminatory power and calibration were assessed by estimating survival C-indices, along with 95 % confidence interval (CI) and the survival-based Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) measures. One-year mortality incidence rate was 17.4 %. A significant difference in mortality rates was observed in Onco-MPI low risk compared to medium- and high-risk patients (2.1 vs. 17.7 vs. 80.8 %, p patients that can be useful for clinical decision making in this age group.

  13. Comparison of severity of illness scoring systems in the prediction of hospital mortality in severe sepsis and septic shock

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crowe Colleen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Background : New scoring systems, including the Rapid Emergency Medicine Score (REMS, the Mortality in Emergency Department Sepsis (MEDS score, and the confusion, urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, blood pressure, 65 years and older (CURB-65 score, have been developed for emergency department (ED use in various patient populations. Increasing use of early goal directed therapy (EGDT for the emergent treatment of sepsis introduces a growing population of patients in which the accuracy of these scoring systems has not been widely examined. Objectives : To evaluate the ability of the REMS, MEDS score, and CURB-65 score to predict mortality in septic patients treated with modified EGDT. Materials and Methods : Secondary analysis of data from prospectively identified patients treated with modified EGDT in a large tertiary care suburban community hospital with over 85,000 ED visits annually and 700 inpatient beds, from May 2007 through May 2008. We included all patients with severe sepsis or septic shock, who were treated with our modified EGDT protocol. Our major outcome was in-hospital mortality. The performance of the scores was compared by area under the ROC curves (AUCs. Results : A total of 216 patients with severe sepsis or septic shock were treated with modified EGDT during the study period. Overall mortality was 32.9%. Calculated AUCs were 0.74 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.67-0.81] for the MEDS score, 0.62 (95% CI: 0.54-0.69 for the REMS, and 0.59 (95% CI: 0.51-0.67 for the CURB-65 score. Conclusion : We found that all three ED-based systems for scoring severity of illness had low to moderate predictive capability. The MEDS score demonstrated the largest AUC of the studied scoring systems for the outcome of mortality, although the CIs on point estimates of the AUC of the REMS and CURB-65 scores all overlap.

  14. Prospective assessment of a palliative care tool to predict one-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moretti, Claudio; Iqbal, Javaid; Murray, Scott; Bertaina, Maurizio; Parviz, Yasir; Fenning, Stephen; Quadri, Giorgio; Gunn, Julian; D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio; Marra, Sebastiano; Moiraghi, Corrado; Riccardini, Franco; Veglio, Franco; Gaita, Fiorenzo; Denvir, Martin

    2017-04-01

    Identifying patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) who are approaching the end of life and who may not benefit from an aggressive interventional approach is important but clinically challenging. The Gold Standards Framework (GSF) prognostic guide was developed using multidimensional criteria to identify cancer patients who could benefit from end-of-life care. We assessed the utility of the GSF to predict one-year mortality in ACS patients. ACS patients admitted between May 2012 and July 2013 at the three participating cardiac centres in Europe were enrolled. Patients were assessed during admission using the GSF, the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, the age, creatinine, ejection fraction (ACEF) score and the New York Percutaneous Coronary Intervention (NY-PCI) risk score. The pre-specified primary outcome was all-cause mortality at one year; secondary outcomes were cardiovascular death, non-cardiovascular mortality, re-hospitalisation for ACS and re-hospitalisation for non-ACS causes. Six hundred and twenty-nine ACS patients were enrolled and one-year follow-up data was available for 626 patients. Fifty-two patients (8.3%) met GSF criteria for end-of-life care. These patients were older, predominantly female, had lower body mass index (BMI), and were less likely to receive angiography (75% vs 95%, pGSF criteria. Patients meeting GSF criteria had higher one-year all-cause mortality (42.3% vs 4.5%, pGSF criteria independently predicted all-cause mortality. GSF is a multidimensional tool which may be used to identify ACS patients that are at high risk of death and may benefit from end-of-life care.

  15. Studying morbidity and predicting mortality in patients with blunt chest trauma using a novel clinical score

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyadarshini Manay

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: A departmental audit in March 2015 revealed significant mortality rate of 40% in blunt chest trauma patients (much greater than the global 25%. A study was thus planned to study morbidity and predictors of mortality in blunt chest trauma patients admitted to our hospital. Methods: This study was a prospective observational study of 139 patients with a history of blunt chest trauma between June 2015 and November 2015 after the Institutional Ethics Committee approval in April 2015. The sample size was calculated from the prevalence rate in our institute from the past medical records. Results: The morbidity factors following blunt chest injuries apart from pain were need for Intensive Care Unit stay, mechanical ventilation, and pneumonia/acute respiratory distress syndrome. Significant predictors of mortality in our study were SpO2 16, and need for mechanical ventilation. By calculating the likelihood ratios of each respiratory sign, a clinical score was devised. Conclusion: The modifiable factors affecting morbidity and mortality were identified. Mild to moderate chest injury due to blunt trauma is difficult to diagnose. The restoration of respiratory physiology has not only significant implications on recovery from chest injury but also all other injuries. It is our sincere hope that the score we have formulated will help reduce mortality and morbidity after further trials.

  16. Mortality Rate and Predictive Factors for Invasive Fungal Rhinosinusitis: Experience in Siriraj Hospital

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Premyot Ngaotepprutaram, M.D.

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To elucidate the mortality rate and prognostic factors in patients with invasive fungal rhinosinusitis in Siriraj Hospital. Methods: Thirty-nine patients with a definitive diagnosis of invasive fungal rhinosinusitis were recruited from October 2003 to September 2014. The mortality rate was retrieved, and the impacts of underlying diseases, clinical presentation, disease extension, fungal types, antifungal drugs, and time to treatment were statistically analyzed. Results: The overall mortality rate was 23.1%. All patients except one were immunocompromised. Cranial nerve involvement was the most common symptom. The ethmoid sinus was the most commonly affected intranasal site (46.2%, and the majority of extranasal lesions were located in the orbit (17.9%. Most patients were affected by Aspergillus spp. (64.1%. Alteration of consciousness and periorbital pain were significant negative prognostic factors [adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval, 10.37 (1.31–82.07 and 8.67 (1.30–57.88, respectively]. Other factors such as time to treatment, age, and central nervous system involvement had no effect on mortality. Conclusion: The mortality rate of invasive fungal rhinosinusitis in this study was 23.1%. Negative prognostic factors were alteration of consciousness and periorbital pain. Clinicians must have a high index of suspicion for invasive fungal rhinosinusitis, and aggressive treatment should be considered.

  17. MR-proANP improves prediction of mortality and cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindberg, Søren; Jensen, Jan Skov; Pedersen, Sune H

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) is released from the atria (on cleavage of proANP) in response to elevated intra-atrial pressure and wall stretch. Clinical data on proANP are still limited, mainly due to limitations in assaying the protein, which recently have been solved. ProANP...... drawn immediately before PCI. Plasma MR-proANP was measured using an automated processing assay. Endpoints were all-cause mortality (n = 137) and the combined endpoint (n = 170) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) defined as cardiovascular mortality and admission due to recurrent MI, ischaemic...... stroke or heart failure. RESULTS: During 5-year follow-up, MR-proANP was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality and MACE (both p 

  18. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne

    2016-01-01

    .35 [95% CI, 1.13-1.63], respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Plasma sCD163 was an independent marker of all-cause mortality in a cohort of HIV-infected individuals, suggesting that monocyte/macrophage activation may play a role in HIV pathogenesis and be a target of intervention.......BACKGROUND: CD163, a monocyte- and macrophage-specific scavenger receptor, is shed as soluble CD163 (sCD163) during the proinflammatory response. Here, we assessed the association between plasma sCD163 levels and progression to AIDS and all-cause mortality among individuals infected with human...... immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). METHODS: Plasma sCD163 levels were measured in 933 HIV-infected individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with mortality were computed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: At baseline, 86% were receiving antiretroviral treatment...

  19. Prediction models for the mortality risk in chronic dialysis patients: a systematic review and independent external validation study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramspek CL

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Chava L Ramspek,1 Pauline WM Voskamp,1 Frans J van Ittersum,2 Raymond T Krediet,3 Friedo W Dekker,1 Merel van Diepen1 On behalf of the NECOSAD study group 1Department of Clinical Epidemiology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, 2Department of Nephrology, VU University Medical Center, 3Department of Nephrology, Academic Medical Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Objective: In medicine, many more prediction models have been developed than are implemented or used in clinical practice. These models cannot be recommended for clinical use before external validity is established. Though various models to predict mortality in dialysis patients have been published, very few have been validated and none are used in routine clinical practice. The aim of the current study was to identify existing models for predicting mortality in dialysis patients through a review and subsequently to externally validate these models in the same large independent patient cohort, in order to assess and compare their predictive capacities.Methods: A systematic review was performed following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA guidelines. To account for missing data, multiple imputation was performed. The original prediction formulae were extracted from selected studies. The probability of death per model was calculated for each individual within the Netherlands Cooperative Study on the Adequacy of Dialysis (NECOSAD. The predictive performance of the models was assessed based on their discrimination and calibration.Results: In total, 16 articles were included in the systematic review. External validation was performed in 1,943 dialysis patients from NECOSAD for a total of seven models. The models performed moderately to well in terms of discrimination, with C-statistics ranging from 0.710 (interquartile range 0.708–0.711 to 0.752 (interquartile range 0.750–0.753 for a time frame of 1 year. According to the calibration, most

  20. Predictive factors of early mortality after percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy placement: The importance of C-reactive protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Mara; Magalhaes, Joana; Marinho, Carla; Cotter, Jose

    2016-08-01

    Percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy (PEG) is considered one of the preferred routes for long-term enteral feeding. However, early mortality after PEG placement is high. We aimed at analyzing overall and early mortality in patients who underwent PEG insertion and at identifying risk factors of increased mortality after the procedure. Retrospective study which included patients who had a PEG insertion at our department between May 2007 and January 2013. Variables analyzed: demographic, Charlson's co-morbidity index, past aspiration pneumonia, indication for PEG, hemogram, ionogram, urea, creatinine, albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP). death. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to calculate mortality after PEG placement. Predictive factors of overall mortality were identified by univariate and multivariate analysis and of 30-day, 90-day and 180-day mortality by logistic regression. The AUROC analysis for CRP levels was performed. Inclusion of 135 patients: 51.9% female, mean age of 73 ± 17 years, 90.4% with neurological dysphagia and 9.6% with tumors compromising oral intake. The median survival time was 272 days. The 30-day, 90-day and 180-day mortality was 0.14 ± 0.06 (95% CI 0.08-0.20), 0.29 ± 0.08 (95% CI 0.21-0.37) and 0.43 ± 0.08 (95% CI 0.35-0.51), respectively. Patients with higher levels CPR (hazard ratio (HR) 1.009 95% CI 1.002-1.160, p = 0.012) and higher levels of urea (HR 1.009 95% CI 1.002-1.160, p = 0.012) had worse outcome and those with higher sodium levels (HR 0.945 95% CI 0.908-0.983, p = 0.005) had better prognosis. Higher CRP levels was the only independent predictive factor for 30-day mortality (odds ratio (OR) 1.008 95% CI 1.001-1.014, p = 0.029), and was also a risk factor for 90-day and 180-day mortality (OR 1.013 95% CI 1.005-1.021, p = 0.002 and OR 1.009 95% CI 1.001-1.018, p = 0.026, respectively). CRP levels ≥35.9 mg/dL could predict death at 30 days with a sensitivity of 0.810 and a specificity of 0

  1. Reading daily predicts reduced mortality among men from a cohort of community-dwelling 70-year-olds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobs, Jeremy M; Hammerman-Rozenberg, Robert; Cohen, Aaron; Stessman, Jochanan

    2008-03-01

    Although social and physical components of leisure activity have proven beneficial to successful aging, the influence of solitary and nonstrenuous activity on subsequent aging is unclear. This study examined reading activity to investigate the relationship of a solitary, nonstrenuous activity on aging and mortality. A cohort of visually and cognitively intact community-dwelling participants born in 1920-1921, taken from the Jerusalem Longitudinal Study, underwent comprehensive assessment at ages 70 and 78. We collected mortality data spanning 8 years. We dichotomized reading frequency to daily or less and performed data analyses separately by gender. Reading daily was common at both ages 70 (62% of the sample) and 78 (68%) and was associated at baseline with female gender, Western origin, higher socioeconomic and educational statuses, employment, and reduced medications. The hazard ratio for mortality over the 8-year follow-up among men was significantly reduced (hazard ratio = 0.44, 95% confidence interval = 0.23-0.84) after we adjusted for numerous social, medical, and health parameters. The findings suggest that leisure activities devoid of social or physical benefits may nonetheless contribute to improved aging, predicting reduced mortality among men. A broader definition of leisure activities may be useful when considering the impact of these activities among older people.

  2. Admission cell free DNA levels predict 28-day mortality in patients with severe sepsis in intensive care.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Avital Avriel

    Full Text Available The aim of the current study is to assess the mortality prediction accuracy of circulating cell-free DNA (CFD level at admission measured by a new simplified method.CFD levels were measured by a direct fluorescence assay in severe sepsis patients on intensive care unit (ICU admission. In-hospital and/or twenty eight day all-cause mortality was the primary outcome.Out of 108 patients with median APACHE II of 20, 32.4% have died in hospital/or at 28-day. CFD levels were higher in decedents: median 3469.0 vs. 1659 ng/ml, p<0.001. In multivariable model APACHE II score and CFD (quartiles were significantly associated with the mortality: odds ratio of 1.05, p = 0.049 and 2.57, p<0.001 per quartile respectively. C-statistics for the models was 0.79 for CFD and 0.68 for APACHE II. Integrated discrimination improvement (IDI analyses showed that CFD and CFD+APACHE II score models had better discriminatory ability than APACHE II score alone.CFD level assessed by a new, simple fluorometric-assay is an accurate predictor of acute mortality among ICU patients with severe sepsis. Comparison of CFD to APACHE II score and Procalcitonin (PCT, suggests that CFD has the potential to improve clinical decision making.

  3. General psychiatric or depressive symptoms were not predictive for mortality in a healthy elderly cohort in Southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Otilia Cerveira

    Full Text Available Abstract General psychiatric symptoms may interfere with the ability of individuals to take care of their health, to get involved with activities and develop social abilities, thereby increasing risk of death. Objective: To evaluate general psychiatric symptoms as predictive factors for mortality in a community elderly cohort in Southern Brazil. Methods: 345 healthy elderly, aged ³60 years, from the catchment area of Hospital de Clinicas de Porto Alegre were followed from 1996. Data for the present study were drawn from the period 1996-2004. General psychiatric symptoms (Self-Reporting Questionnaire - SRQ, depressive symptoms (Montgomery-Asberg depressive rating scale, and Mini Mental State Examination scores at baseline were included in the study. Socio-demographic, medical conditions, and functional capacity were also analyzed. The outcome was vital status at follow-up obtained from family members, hospital records and checked against official death registers. Results: Of the 345 baseline individuals, 246 were followed-up. The global mortality rate over the study period was 36.9% (N=90. Those who deceased during the period were older (73.5±7.5, more dependent overall, and more cognitively impaired than the living elderly (univariate analyses. In the logistic regression, only age (OR=0.93; p=0.003 and functional capacity (OR=0.22; p=0.007 remained significant in the final equation. Conclusion: Psychiatric symptoms presented no association with mortality in the present sample. Older age and functional incapacity were risk factors for mortality.

  4. Ascites Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Identifies Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis and Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullaro, Giuseppe; Kim, Grace; Pereira, Marcus R; Brown, Robert S; Verna, Elizabeth C

    2017-12-01

    Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a marker of both tissue injury and infection. Urine NGAL levels strongly predict acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but ascites NGAL is not well characterized. We hypothesized that ascites NGAL level is a marker of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis. Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites undergoing diagnostic paracentesis were prospectively enrolled and followed until death or discharge. Patients with secondary peritonitis, prior transplantation, or active colitis were excluded. NGAL was measured in the ascites and serum. Ascites NGAL level was evaluated as a marker of SBP (defined as ascites absolute neutrophil count > 250 cells/mm 3 ) and predictor of in-patient mortality. A total of 146 patients were enrolled, and of these, 29 patients (20%) had SBP. Baseline characteristics were similar between subjects with and without SBP. Median (IQR) ascites NGAL was significantly higher in patients with SBP compared to those without SBP (221.3 [145.9-392.9] vs. 139.2 [73.9-237.2], p peritonitis in hospitalized patient with cirrhosis and an independent predictor of short-term in-hospital mortality, even controlling for SBP and MELD.

  5. Associations of specific types of sports and exercise with all-cause and cardiovascular-disease mortality: a cohort study of 80 306 British adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oja, Pekka; Kelly, Paul; Pedisic, Zeljko; Titze, Sylvia; Bauman, Adrian; Foster, Charlie; Hamer, Mark; Hillsdon, Melvyn; Stamatakis, Emmanuel

    2017-05-01

    Evidence for the long-term health effects of specific sport disciplines is scarce. Therefore, we examined the associations of six different types of sport/exercise with all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk in a large pooled Scottish and English population-based cohort. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to investigate the associations between each exposure and all-cause and CVD mortality with adjustment for potential confounders in 80 306 individuals (54% women; mean±SD age: 52±14 years). Significant reductions in all-cause mortality were observed for participation in cycling (HR=0.85, 95% CI 0.76 to 0.95), swimming (HR=0.72, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.80), racquet sports (HR=0.53, 95% CI 0.40 to 0.69) and aerobics (HR=0.73, 95% CI 0.63 to 0.85). No significant associations were found for participation in football and running. A significant reduction in CVD mortality was observed for participation in swimming (HR=0.59, 95% CI 0.46 to 0.75), racquet sports (HR=0.44, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.83) and aerobics (HR=0.64, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.92), but there were no significant associations for cycling, running and football. Variable dose-response patterns between the exposure and the outcomes were found across the sport disciplines. These findings demonstrate that participation in specific sports may have significant benefits for public health. Future research should aim to further strengthen the sport-specific epidemiological evidence base and understanding of how to promote greater sports participation. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  6. Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise and prediction of cardiovascular events: One stone to kill two birds?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellier, Philippe; Lecouffe, Pascal; Zureik, Mahmoud

    2007-02-01

    BackgroundPeripheral arterial disease (PAD) is commonly associated with a high cardiovascular mortality and morbidity as a marker of plurifocal atherosclerosis. Whether exercise thallium perfusion muscular asymmetry in the legs associated with PAD has prognostic value is unknown. Such a hypothesis was evaluated in a prospective study which remains the gold standard in clinical research. Methods and resultsScintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise (SCPSE) was measured at the end of a maximal or symptom-limited treadmill exercise test in 358 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). During the follow-up period (mean 85.3±32.8 months), 93 cardiovascular events and deaths (incident cases) occurred. Among those incident cases, the percentage of subjects with higher SCPSE values (third tertile) was 45.2%, versus 29.1% in controls (lower tertiles) ( p=0.005). In stepwise multivariate analysis performed with the Cox proportional hazards model, previous CAD and SCPSE were the only significant independent predictors of prognosis. The multivariate relative risk of cardiovascular death or event in subjects with higher values of SCPSE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.15-3.21; pexercise was independently associated with incident cardiovascular events in high-risk subjects. This index, which is easily and quickly calculated, could be used for evaluation of cardiovascular risk.

  7. The value of exercise tests after acute myocardial infarction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, F E; Nielsen, S L; Knudsen, F

    1992-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to relate the clinical course in patients after a first acute myocardial infarction with the response to exercise-tests performed one month after discharge. 90 consecutive patients who suffered an acute myocardial infarction for the first time were followed-up after...... (W) were predictive with respect to mortality, heart failure, and angina pectoris requiring drug treatment. Exercise tests following acute myocardial infarction could not predict the chances of returning to work....

  8. Predicting one-year mortality in peritoneal dialysis patients: an analysis of the China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Xue-Ying; Zhou, Jian-Hui; Cai, Guang-Yan; Tan, Ni-Na; Huang, Jing; Xie, Xiang-Cheng; Tang, Li; Chen, Xiang-Mei

    2015-01-01

    This study aims to investigate basic clinical features of peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients, their prognostic risk factors, and to establish a prognostic model for predicting their one-year mortality. A national multi-center cohort study was performed. A total of 5,405 new PD cases from China Peritoneal Dialysis Registry in 2012 were enrolled in model group. All these patients had complete baseline data and were followed for one year. Demographic and clinical features of these patients were collected. Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to analyze prognostic risk factors and establish prognostic model. A validation group was established using 1,764 new PD cases between January 1, 2013 and July 1, 2013, and to verify accuracy of prognostic model. Results indicated that model group included 4,453 live PD cases and 371 dead cases. Multivariate survival analysis showed that diabetes mellitus (DM), residual glomerular filtration rate (rGFR), , SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independently associated with one-year mortality. Model was statistically significant in both within-group verification and outside-group verification. In conclusion, DM, rGFR, SBP, Kt/V, high PET type and Alb were independent risk factors for short-term mortality in PD patients. Prognostic model established in this study accurately predicted risk of short-term death in PD patients.

  9. Exercise capacity independently predicts bone mineral density and proximal femoral geometry in patients with acute decompensated heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, J-C; Lee, S J; Lee, H S; Oh, J; Hong, N; Park, S; Lee, S-H; Choi, D; Rhee, Y; Kang, S-M

    2015-08-01

    Heart failure is associated with increased risk of osteoporosis. We evaluated the prevalence and predictors of osteoporosis in hospitalized patients with ADHF using quantitative computed tomography. Osteoporosis and vertebral fracture are prevalent in patients with ADHF and exercise capacity independently predicts bone mass and femoral bone geometry. Heart failure is associated with reduced bone mass and increased risk of osteoporotic fractures. However, the prevalence and predictors of osteoporosis in hospitalized patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) are not well understood. Sixty-five patients (15 postmenopausal females and 50 males) with ADHF were prospectively and consecutively enrolled. After stabilization of heart failure symptoms, quantitative computed tomography for bone mineral density (BMD) and femoral geometry as well as biochemical, echocardiographic, and cardiopulmonary exercise tests were performed. Fifteen postmenopausal female showed a high prevalence of osteoporosis (40%) and vertebral fracture (53%). Among 50 male patients, 12% had osteoporosis and 32% had osteopenia, while vertebral fracture was found in 12%. Lumbar volumetric BMD (vBMD) was significantly lower in ischemic patients than non-ischemic patients (107.9 ± 47.5 vs. 145.4 ± 40.9 mg/cm(3), p = 0.005) in male. Exercise capacity, indicated by peak oxygen consumption (VO2), was significantly associated with lumbar vBMD (r = 0.576, p fracture are prevalent, and exercise capacity independently predicts bone mass and geometry. Given that heart failure patients with reduced exercise capacity carry a substantial increased risk of fracture, proper osteoporosis evaluation is important in these patients.

  10. A new non exercise-based VO2max prediction equation for patients with chronic low back pain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, Ivan Leonardo; Parra, José-Hernán; Duvallet, Alain

    2009-09-01

    INTRODUCTION The measurement of the maximal oxygen uptake as a parameter of cardiorespiratory fitness is useful in exercise prescription in functional restoration programs but this measurement requires the subject's maximal exertion which is not always possible in patients with chronic low back pain. The purpose of this study was to develop a regression equation to predict maximal oxygen uptake based on non-exercise data in adult patients with chronic low back pain. Cross sectional study in which 70 participants completed a maximal graded exercise test in cycle ergometer to assess maximal oxygen uptake. Patients achieved a mean +/- SD value of VO(2)max of 30.8 (+/-7.7) ml kg(-1) min(-1). The regression model included as data of non-exercise the patient's gender, body mass index and the intensity of physical activity during leisure time. Multiple linear regression analysis generated the following formula (R (2) = 38.3, SEE = 6.08 ml kg(-1) min(-1)): VO(2)max (ml kg(-1) min(-1)) = 35.3377 - 0.475411 x BMI + 0.155232 x PALT + 7.97682 x gender; where BMI = body mass index, PALT = physical activity during leisure time, women = 0, men = 1. The Durbin Watson statistic showed no problems with serial autocorrelation (D-W = 1.86). The Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality test demonstrated that the errors are distributed normally. This study provides a new and relatively precise non-exercise regression model to predict VO(2)max in patients with chronic low back pain.

  11. Predicting mortality in patients treated differently: updating and external validation of a prediction model for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory infections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heymans, Martijn W; Mehr, David R; Kruse, Robin L; Lane, Patricia; Kowall, Neil W; Volicer, Ladislav; van der Steen, Jenny T

    2016-01-01

    Objective To evaluate whether a model that was previously developed to predict 14-day mortality for nursing home residents with dementia and lower respiratory tract infection who received antibiotics could be applied to residents who were not treated with antibiotics. Specifically, in this same data set, to update the model using recalibration methods; and subsequently examine the historical, geographical, methodological and spectrum transportability through external validation of the updated model. Design 1 cohort study was used to develop the prediction model, and 4 cohort studies from 2 countries were used for the external validation of the model. Setting Nursing homes in the Netherlands and the USA. Participants 157 untreated residents were included in the development of the model; 239 untreated residents were included in the external validation cohorts. Outcome Model performance was evaluated by assessing discrimination: area under the receiver operating characteristic curves; and calibration: Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics and calibration graphs. Further, reclassification tables allowed for a comparison of patient classifications between models. Results The original prediction model applied to the untreated residents, who were sicker, showed excellent discrimination but poor calibration, underestimating mortality. Adjusting the intercept improved calibration. Recalibrating the slope did not substantially improve the performance of the model. Applying the updated model to the other 4 data sets resulted in acceptable discrimination. Calibration was inadequate only in one data set that differed substantially from the other data sets in case-mix. Adjusting the intercept for this population again improved calibration. Conclusions The discriminative performance of the model seems robust for differences between settings. To improve calibration, we recommend adjusting the intercept when applying the model in settings where different mortality rates

  12. Assessing cardiorespiratory fitness without performing exercise testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jurca, R.; Jackson, A.S.; LaMonte, M.J.; Morrow, J.R.; Blair, S.N.; Wareham, N.J.; Haskell, W.L.; van Mechelen, W.; Church, T.S.; Jakicic, J.M.; Laukkanen, R.

    2005-01-01

    Background: Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is associated with increased risk of chronic diseases and mortality; however, CRF assessment is usually not performed in many healthcare settings. The purpose of this study is to extend previous work on a non-exercise test model to predict CRF from

  13. Clarifying the contribution of subjective norm to predicting leisure-time exercise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okun, Morris A; Karoly, Paul; Lutz, Rafer

    2002-01-01

    To clarify the contribution of subjective norm to exercise intention and behavior by considering the influence of descriptive as well as injunctive social norms related to family and friends. A sample of 530 college students completed a questionnaire that assessed descriptive and injunctive social norms related to family and to friends, perceived behavioral control, attitude, intention, and leisure-time exercise. Friend descriptive social norm was a significant predictor of both intention (pnorms should be incorporated into tests of the theory of planned behavior in the exercise domain.

  14. Exhaled nitric oxide predicts exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in asthmatic school children

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchvald, Frederik; Hermansen, Mette N; Nielsen, Kim G

    2005-01-01

    to a standardized submaximal exercise test on the treadmill were measured in 111 school children with asthma. EIB could be excluded with a probability of 90% in asthmatic children with FeNO levels ... reducing the need for exercise testing. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the value of FeNO as a predictor of EIB in asthmatic children. METHODS: Stable outpatient asthmatic school children performed standard exercise challenge tests and measurement of FeNO. RESULTS: FeNO and response...

  15. External validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for early prediction of mortality in trauma patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Reitsma, Johannes B.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel

    2014-01-01

    The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base excess, and

  16. Physical Activity Related to Depression and Predicted Mortality Risk: Results from the Americans' Changing Lives Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Lee, Charles C.-L.

    2012-01-01

    This study examined the association between three types of physical activities (PA) and depression, and the relationship between PA and later mortality. Previous studies rarely assessed these associations in one single study in randomly selected population samples. Few studies have assessed these relations by adjusting the covariate of…

  17. Plasma Soluble CD163 Level Independently Predicts All-Cause Mortality in HIV-1-Infected Individuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Troels Bygum; Ertner, Gideon; Petersen, Janne

    2016-01-01

    immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV). METHODS: Plasma sCD163 levels were measured in 933 HIV-infected individuals. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) associated with mortality were computed by Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: At baseline, 86% were receiving antiretroviral treatment...

  18. Predictive factors of neurological complications and one-month mortality after liver transplantation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katherine eFu

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Neurological complications are common after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT. We aimed to characterize the risk factors associated with neurological complications and mortality among patients who underwent OLT in the post-model for end-stage liver disease (MELD era.Methods: In a retrospective review, we evaluated 227 consecutive patients at the Keck Hospital of the University of Southern California before and after OLT to define the type and frequency of and risk factors for neurological complications and mortality.Results: Neurological complications were common (n=98, with encephalopathy being most frequent (56.8%, followed by tremor (26.5%, hallucinations (11.2%, and seizure (8.2%. Factors associated with neurological complications after OLT included preoperative dialysis, hepatorenal syndrome, renal insufficiency, intra-operative dialysis, preoperative encephalopathy, preoperative mechanical ventilation, and infection. Preoperative infection was an independent predictor of neurological complications (OR 2.83, 1.47 – 5.44. One-month mortality was 8.8% and was independently associated with urgent re-transplant, preoperative intubation, intraoperative arrhythmia, and intraoperative use of multiple pressors.Conclusion: Neurological complications are common in patients undergoing OLT in the post-MELD era, with encephalopathy being most frequent. An improved understanding of the risk factors related to both neurological complications and one-month mortality post-transplantation can better guide perioperative care and help improve outcomes among OLT patients.

  19. Plasma concentration of von Willebrand factor predicts mortality in patients on chronic renal replacement therapy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Péquériaux, Nathalie C.; Fijnheer, Rob; Gemen, Eugenie F.; Barendrecht, Arjan D.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Beutler, Jaap J.; Boeschoten, Elisabeth W.; Roest, Mark

    2012-01-01

    Background. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors do not explain the high incidence of cardiovascular mortality and morbidity in patients with end-stage renal disease. A prothrombotic state could accelerate the process of vascular disease in these patients. Methods. In this study, four platelet

  20. Automated Prediction of Early Blood Transfusion and Mortality in Trauma Patients

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-24

    resource use and mortality. Surgery. 2012;152:473Y476. 25. Zarzaur BL, Croce MA, Fischer PE, Magnotti LJ , Fabian TC. New vitals after injury: shock index...vital signs with massive transfusion in combat casualties. J Trauma. 2010;69(Suppl 1):S26YS32. 28. ScreiberM, Perkins J, Kiraly L, Underwood S,Wade C

  1. External Validation of the Emergency Trauma Score for Early Prediction of Mortality in Trauma Patients

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joosse, Pieter; de Jong, Willem-Jan J.; Wendt, Klaus W.; Schep, Niels W.; Goslings, J. Carel; Reitsma, J.

    Objectives: The Emergency Trauma Score has been developed for early estimation of mortality risk in adult trauma patients with an Injury Severity Score of 16 or higher. Emergency Trauma Score combines four early predictors available at the trauma resuscitation room: age, Glasgow Coma Scale, base

  2. [Mortality predictive factors in patients with urinary sepsis associated to upper urinary tract calculi].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badia, M; Iglesias, S; Serviá, L; Domingo, J; Gormaz, P; Vilanova, J; Gavilan, R; Trujillano, J

    2015-01-01

    The aims of this study were to determine the clinical characteristics of patients with urinary sepsis associated to ureteral calculi admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), and to identify predictors of mortality in the first 24 hours of admission. A retrospective observational study covering a 16-year period (2006-2011) was carried out. The combined clinical/surgical ICU of a secondary-level University hospital. All patients admitted to the ICU due to obstructive urinary sepsis. None. We analyzed general clinical and laboratory test and urological data. The diagnostic technique, affected side, decompression technique, isolated microorganism and antibiotic therapy used were also considered. The assessment of risk factors was performed by multiple logistic regression analysis. A total of 107 patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study, with a mortality rate of 19.6%. The diagnosis was mainly established by ultrasound, and the most commonly used decompression technique was retrograde JJ stenting. Microorganisms were isolated in 48.6% of the patients. In total, 20.6% of the patients had bacteremia. Multivariate analysis found age, acute renal failure and the use of vasoactive drugs administered continuously for the first 24 hours of admission to be independently associated to mortality. Advanced age, acute renal failure and the need for vasoactive drugs were associated to an increased risk of mortality in patients with urinary sepsis associated to upper urinary tract calculi. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  3. Single living predicts a higher mortality in both women and men with chronic heart failure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mard, Shan; Nielsen, Finn Erland

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We examined the impact of single living on all-cause mortality in patients with chronic heart failure and determined if this association was modified by gender. METHODS: This historical cohort study included 637 patients who were admitted to the Department of Cardiology, Herlev Hosp...

  4. Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William R Hobbs

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

  5. Usefulness of QRS axis change to predict mortality in patients with left bundle branch block.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, Parin J; Verdino, Ralph J

    2013-08-01

    QRS duration correlates with poor prognosis in patients with left bundle branch block (LBBB), but the importance of left-axis deviation (LAD) is not well established. To determine if LAD confers a mortality risk in patients with LBBB, a single-center, retrospective, population-based cohort study was conducted. Included were all patients at 1 hospital with LBBB on electrocardiography from 1995 to 2005 over a 17-year follow-up period (n = 2,794, median follow-up duration 20 months, interquartile range 6 to 64). Half of all patients with LBBB had LAD. The all-cause mortality rate in the entire cohort was 15%. LAD was not associated with mortality, either as a single outcome (odds ratio [OR] 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88 to 1.3, p = 0.50) or in time-to-event analysis (p = 0.40). Significant risk factors for mortality included high creatinine (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3), low hemoglobin (OR 1.2, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.3), history of atrial fibrillation (OR 1.6, 95% CI 1.3 to 2.1), electrocardiographic evidence of previous infarct (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 1.9), and history of ventricular tachycardia (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.9). On bivariate analysis, LAD was associated with atrial fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia, age, and congestive heart failure. Patients with LBBB who converted from normal axis to LAD had significantly higher mortality in time-to-event analysis (p = 0.02). In conclusion, in patients with LBBB, LAD does not confer significant mortality risk. However, those with normal axis who developed LAD during the study period had significantly higher mortality. Perhaps when LBBB and LAD develop concurrently, there is no increased risk over baseline LBBB development, but it may herald a worse prognosis if LAD develops against the background of previous LBBB, from an unknown mechanism. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Predicting mortality of incident dialysis patients in Taiwan--a longitudinal population-based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping-Hsun Wu

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Comorbid conditions are highly prevalent among patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD and index score is a predictor of mortality in dialysis patients. The aim of this study is to perform a population-based cohort study to investigate the survival rate