The Impact of Exercise on Cancer Mortality, Recurrence, and Treatment-Related Adverse Effects.

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Cormie, Prue; Zopf, Eva M; Zhang, Xiaochen; Schmitz, Kathryn H

2017-01-01

The combination of an increasing number of new cancer cases and improving survival rates has led to a large and rapidly growing population with unique health-care requirements. Exercise has been proposed as a strategy to help address the issues faced by cancer patients. Supported by a growing body of research, major health organizations commonly identify the importance of incorporating exercise in cancer care and advise patients to be physically active. This systematic review comprehensively summarizes the available epidemiologic and randomized controlled trial evidence investigating the role of exercise in the management of cancer. Literature searches focused on determining the potential impact of exercise on 1) cancer mortality and recurrence and 2) adverse effects of cancer and its treatment. A total of 100 studies were reviewed involving thousands of individual patients whose exercise behavior was assessed following the diagnosis of any type of cancer. Compared with patients who performed no/less exercise, patients who exercised following a diagnosis of cancer were observed to have a lower relative risk of cancer mortality and recurrence and experienced fewer/less severe adverse effects. The findings of this review support the view that exercise is an important adjunct therapy in the management of cancer. Implications on cancer care policy and practice are discussed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Exercise identity and attribution properties predict negative self-conscious emotions for exercise relapse.

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Flora, Parminder K; Strachan, Shaelyn M; Brawley, Lawrence R; Spink, Kevin S

2012-10-01

Research on exercise identity (EXID) indicates that it is related to negative affect when exercisers are inconsistent or relapse. Although identity theory suggests that causal attributions about this inconsistency elicit negative self-conscious emotions of shame and guilt, no EXID studies have examined this for exercise relapse. Weiner's attribution-based theory of interpersonal motivation (2010) offers a means of testing the attribution-emotion link. Using both frameworks, we examined whether EXID and attributional properties predicted negative emotions for exercise relapse. Participants (n = 224) read an exercise relapse vignette, and then completed EXID, attributions, and emotion measures. Hierarchical multiple regression models using EXID and the attributional property of controllability significantly predicted each of shame and guilt, R² adjusted = .09, ps ≤ .001. Results support identity theory suggestions and Weiner's specific attribution-emotion hypothesis. This first demonstration of an interlinking of EXID, controllability, and negative self-conscious emotions offers more predictive utility using complementary theories than either theory alone.

Habitual exercise instigation (vs. execution) predicts healthy adults' exercise frequency.

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Phillips, L Alison; Gardner, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Habit is thought to be conducive to health behavior maintenance, because habits prompt behavior with minimal cognitive resources. The precise role of habit in determining complex behavioral sequences, such as exercise, has been underresearched. It is possible that the habit process may initiate a behavioral sequence (instigation habit) or that, after instigation, movement through the sequence is automated (execution habit). We hypothesized that exercise instigation habit can be empirically distinguished from exercise execution habit and that instigation habit strength is most predictive of future exercise and reflective of longitudinal exercise behavior change. Further, we evaluated whether patterned exercise action-that is, engaging in the same exercise actions from session to session-can be distinct from exercise execution habit. Healthy adults (N = 123) rated their exercise instigation and execution habit strengths, patterned exercise actions, and exercise frequency in baseline and 1-month follow-up surveys. Participants reported exercise engagement via electronic daily diaries for 1 month. Hypotheses were tested with regression analyses and repeated-measures analyses of variance. Exercise instigation habit strength was the only unique predictor of exercise frequency. Frequency profiles (change from high to low or low to high, no change high, no change low) were associated with changes in instigation habit but not with execution habit or patterned exercise action. Results suggest that the separable components of exercise sessions may be more or less automatic, and they point to the importance of developing instigation habit for establishing frequent exercise. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Using built environment characteristics to predict walking for exercise

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Siscovick David S

2008-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Environments conducive to walking may help people avoid sedentary lifestyles and associated diseases. Recent studies developed walkability models combining several built environment characteristics to optimally predict walking. Developing and testing such models with the same data could lead to overestimating one's ability to predict walking in an independent sample of the population. More accurate estimates of model fit can be obtained by splitting a single study population into training and validation sets (holdout approach or through developing and evaluating models in different populations. We used these two approaches to test whether built environment characteristics near the home predict walking for exercise. Study participants lived in western Washington State and were adult members of a health maintenance organization. The physical activity data used in this study were collected by telephone interview and were selected for their relevance to cardiovascular disease. In order to limit confounding by prior health conditions, the sample was restricted to participants in good self-reported health and without a documented history of cardiovascular disease. Results For 1,608 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, the mean age was 64 years, 90 percent were white, 37 percent had a college degree, and 62 percent of participants reported that they walked for exercise. Single built environment characteristics, such as residential density or connectivity, did not significantly predict walking for exercise. Regression models using multiple built environment characteristics to predict walking were not successful at predicting walking for exercise in an independent population sample. In the validation set, none of the logistic models had a C-statistic confidence interval excluding the null value of 0.5, and none of the linear models explained more than one percent of the variance in time spent walking for exercise. We did not

Diabetes, Frequency of Exercise, and Mortality Over 12 Years: Analysis of the National Health Insurance Service-Health Screening (NHIS-HEALS) Database.

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Shin, Woo Young; Lee, Taehee; Jeon, Da Hye; Kim, Hyeon Chang

2018-02-19

The goal of this study was to analyze the relationship between exercise frequency and all-cause mortality for individuals diagnosed with and without diabetes mellitus (DM). We analyzed data for 505,677 participants (53.9% men) in the National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening (NHIS-HEALS) cohort. The study endpoint variable was all-cause mortality. Frequency of exercise and covariates including age, sex, smoking status, household income, blood pressure, fasting glucose, body mass index, total cholesterol, and Charlson comorbidity index were determined at baseline. Cox proportional hazard regression models were developed to assess the effects of exercise frequency (0, 1-2, 3-4, 5-6, and 7 days per week) on mortality, separately in individuals with and without DM. We found a U-shaped association between exercise frequency and mortality in individuals with and without DM. However, the frequency of exercise associated with the lowest risk of all-cause mortality was 3-4 times per week (hazard ratio [HR], 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.73) in individuals without DM, and 5-6 times per week in those with DM (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.78-1.10). A moderate frequency of exercise may reduce mortality regardless of the presence or absence of DM; however, when compared to those without the condition, people with DM may need to exercise more often. © 2018 The Korean Academy of Medical Sciences.

Exercise capacity and all-cause mortality in male veterans with hypertension aged ≥70 years.

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Faselis, Charles; Doumas, Michael; Pittaras, Andreas; Narayan, Puneet; Myers, Jonathan; Tsimploulis, Apostolos; Kokkinos, Peter

2014-07-01

Aging, even in otherwise healthy subjects, is associated with declines in muscle mass, strength, and aerobic capacity. Older individuals respond favorably to exercise, suggesting that physical inactivity plays an important role in age-related functional decline. Conversely, physical activity and improved exercise capacity are associated with lower mortality risk in hypertensive individuals. However, the effect of exercise capacity in older hypertensive individuals has not been investigated extensively. A total of 2153 men with hypertension, aged ≥70 years (mean, 75 ± 4) from the Washington, DC, and Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Medical Centers, underwent routine exercise tolerance testing. Peak workload was estimated in metabolic equivalents (METs). Fitness categories were established based on peak METs achieved, adjusted for age: very-low-fit, 2.0 to 4.0 METs (n=386); low-fit, 4.1 to 6.0 METs (n=1058); moderate-fit, 6.1 to 8.0 METs (n=495); high-fit >8.0 METs (n=214). Cox proportional hazard models were applied after adjusting for age, body mass index, race, cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular medications, and risk factors. All-cause mortality was quantified during a mean follow-up period of 9.0 ± 5.5 years. There were a total of 1039 deaths or 51.2 deaths per 1000 person-years of follow-up. Mortality risk was 11% lower (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93; Pexercise capacity. When compared with those achieving ≤4.0 METs, mortality risk was 18% lower (hazard ratio, 0.82; 95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.95; P=0.011) for the low-fit, 36% for the moderate-fit (hazard ratio, 0.64; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.78; Pexercise capacity is associated with lower mortality risk in elderly men with hypertension. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

A Novel Exercise Thermophysiology Comfort Prediction Model with Fuzzy Logic

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Nan Jia

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Participation in a regular exercise program can improve health status and contribute to an increase in life expectancy. However, exercise accidents like dehydration, exertional heatstroke, syncope, and even sudden death exist. If these accidents can be analyzed or predicted before they happen, it will be beneficial to alleviate or avoid uncomfortable or unacceptable human disease. Therefore, an exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction model is needed. In this paper, coupling the thermal interactions among human body, clothing, and environment (HCE as well as the human body physiological properties, a human thermophysiology regulatory model is designed to enhance the human thermophysiology simulation in the HCE system. Some important thermal and physiological performances can be simulated. According to the simulation results, a human exercise thermophysiology comfort prediction method based on fuzzy inference system is proposed. The experiment results show that there is the same prediction trend between the experiment result and simulation result about thermophysiology comfort. At last, a mobile application platform for human exercise comfort prediction is designed and implemented.

Predictive Accuracy of Exercise Stress Testing the Healthy Adult.

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Lamont, Linda S.

1981-01-01

Exercise stress testing provides information on the aerobic capacity, heart rate, and blood pressure responses to graded exercises of a healthy adult. The reliability of exercise tests as a diagnostic procedure is discussed in relation to sensitivity and specificity and predictive accuracy. (JN)

Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage

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Anderegg, William R.L.; Flint, Alan L.; Huang, Cho-ying; Flint, Lorraine E.; Berry, Joseph A.; Davis, Frank W.; Sperry, John S.; Field, Christopher B.

2015-01-01

The projected responses of forest ecosystems to warming and drying associated with twenty-first-century climate change vary widely from resiliency to widespread tree mortality1, 2, 3. Current vegetation models lack the ability to account for mortality of overstorey trees during extreme drought owing to uncertainties in mechanisms and thresholds causing mortality4, 5. Here we assess the causes of tree mortality, using field measurements of branch hydraulic conductivity during ongoing mortality in Populus tremuloides in the southwestern United States and a detailed plant hydraulics model. We identify a lethal plant water stress threshold that corresponds with a loss of vascular transport capacity from air entry into the xylem. We then use this hydraulic-based threshold to simulate forest dieback during historical drought, and compare predictions against three independent mortality data sets. The hydraulic threshold predicted with 75% accuracy regional patterns of tree mortality as found in field plots and mortality maps derived from Landsat imagery. In a high-emissions scenario, climate models project that drought stress will exceed the observed mortality threshold in the southwestern United States by the 2050s. Our approach provides a powerful and tractable way of incorporating tree mortality into vegetation models to resolve uncertainty over the fate of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.

Peak Exercise Oxygen Uptake Predicts Recurrent Admissions in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

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Palau, Patricia; Domínguez, Eloy; Núñez, Eduardo; Ramón, José María; López, Laura; Melero, Joana; Sanchis, Juan; Bellver, Alejandro; Santas, Enrique; Bayes-Genis, Antoni; Chorro, Francisco J; Núñez, Julio

2018-04-01

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a highly prevalent syndrome with an elevated risk of morbidity and mortality. To date, there is scarce evidence on the role of peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO 2 ) for predicting the morbidity burden in HFpEF. We sought to evaluate the association between peak VO 2 and the risk of recurrent hospitalizations in patients with HFpEF. A total of 74 stable symptomatic patients with HFpEF underwent a cardiopulmonary exercise test between June 2012 and May 2016. A negative binomial regression method was used to determine the association between the percentage of predicted peak VO 2 (pp-peak VO 2 ) and recurrent hospitalizations. Risk estimates are reported as incidence rate ratios. The mean age was 72.5 ± 9.1 years, 53% were women, and all patients were in New York Heart Association functional class II to III. Mean peak VO 2 and median pp-peak VO 2 were 10 ± 2.8mL/min/kg and 60% (range, 47-67), respectively. During a median follow-up of 276 days [interquartile range, 153-1231], 84 all-cause hospitalizations in 31 patients (41.9%) were registered. A total of 15 (20.3%) deaths were also recorded. On multivariate analysis, accounting for mortality as a terminal event, pp-peak VO 2 was independently and linearly associated with the risk of recurrent admission. Thus, and modeled as continuous, a 10% decrease of pp-peak VO 2 increased the risk of recurrent hospitalizations by 32% (IRR, 1.32; 95%CI, 1.03-1.68; P = .028). In symptomatic elderly patients with HFpEF, pp-peak VO 2 predicts all-cause recurrent admission. Copyright © 2017 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Interpretable Topic Features for Post-ICU Mortality Prediction.

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Luo, Yen-Fu; Rumshisky, Anna

2016-01-01

Electronic health records provide valuable resources for understanding the correlation between various diseases and mortality. The analysis of post-discharge mortality is critical for healthcare professionals to follow up potential causes of death after a patient is discharged from the hospital and give prompt treatment. Moreover, it may reduce the cost derived from readmissions and improve the quality of healthcare. Our work focused on post-discharge ICU mortality prediction. In addition to features derived from physiological measurements, we incorporated ICD-9-CM hierarchy into Bayesian topic model learning and extracted topic features from medical notes. We achieved highest AUCs of 0.835 and 0.829 for 30-day and 6-month post-discharge mortality prediction using baseline and topic proportions derived from Labeled-LDA. Moreover, our work emphasized the interpretability of topic features derived from topic model which may facilitates the understanding and investigation of the complexity between mortality and diseases.

Cardiorespiratory optimal point during exercise testing as a predictor of all-cause mortality.

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Ramos, Plínio S; Araújo, Claudio Gil S

2017-04-01

The cardiorespiratory optimal point (COP) is a novel index, calculated as the minimum oxygen ventilatory equivalent (VE/VO 2 ) obtained during cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this study we demonstrate the prognostic value of COP both independently and in combination with maximum oxygen consumption (VO 2 max) in community-dwelling adults. Maximal cycle ergometer CPET was performed in 3331 adults (66% men) aged 40-85 years, healthy (18%) or with chronic disease (81%). COP cut-off values of 30 were selected based on the log-rank test. Risk discrimination was assessed using COP as an independent predictor and combined with VO 2 max. Median follow-up was 6.4 years (7.1% mortality). Subjects with COP >30 demonstrated increased mortality compared to those with COP 30 of 3.72 (95% CI 1.98-6.98; p30, either independently or in combination with low VO 2 max, is a good predictor of all-cause mortality in community-dwelling adults (healthy or with chronic disease). COP is a submaximal prognostic index that is simple to obtain and adds to CPET assessment, especially for adults unable or unwilling to achieve maximal exercise. Copyright © 2017 Sociedade Portuguesa de Cardiologia. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Larger Lateral Prefrontal Cortex Volume Predicts Better Exercise Adherence Among Older Women: Evidence From Two Exercise Training Studies.

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Best, John R; Chiu, Bryan K; Hall, Peter A; Liu-Ambrose, Teresa

2017-06-01

Recent research has suggested an important role of lateral prefrontal cortex (lPFC) in consistent implementation of positive health behaviors and avoidance of negative health behaviors. We examined whether gray matter volume in the lPFC prospectively predicts exercise class attendance among older women (n = 122) who underwent either a 52-week or 26-week exercise training intervention. Structural magnetic resonance imaging determined gray matter volume at baseline. Independent of intracranial volume, age, education, body composition, mobility, depressive symptoms, and general cognitive functioning, larger lPFC volume predicted greater exercise class attendance (all p values exercise adherence as well as identified other regions, especially in the insula and temporal cortex, that predicted exercise adherence. These findings suggest that sustained engagement in exercise training might rely in part on functions of the lPFC and that lPFC volume might be a reasonable proxy for such functions. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Measurement of exercise habits and prediction of leisure-time activity in established exercise.

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Tappe, Karyn A; Glanz, Karen

2013-01-01

Habit formation may be important to maintaining repetitive healthy behaviors like exercise. Existing habit questionnaires only measure part of the definition of habit (automaticity; frequency). A novel habit questionnaire was evaluated that measured contextual cueing. We designed a two-stage observational cohort study of regular exercisers. For stage 1, we conducted an in-person interview on a university campus. For stage 2, we conducted an internet-based survey. Participants were 156 adults exercising at least once per week. A novel measure, The Exercise Habit Survey (EHS) assessed contextual cueing through 13 questions on constancy of place, time, people, and exercise behaviors. A subset of the Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI), measuring automaticity, was also collected along with measures of intention and self-efficacy, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ), leisure-time section. The EHS was evaluated using factor analysis and test-retest reliability. Its correlation to other exercise predictors and exercise behavior was evaluated using Pearson's r and hierarchical regression. Results suggested that the EHS comprised four subscales (People, Place, Time, Exercise Constancy). Only Exercise Constancy correlated significantly with SRHI. Only the People subscale predicted IPAQ exercise metabolic equivalents. The SRHI was a strong predictor. Contextual cueing is an important aspect of habit but measurement methodologies warrant refinement and comparison by different methods.

Functional status and mortality prediction in community-acquired pneumonia.

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Jeon, Kyeongman; Yoo, Hongseok; Jeong, Byeong-Ho; Park, Hye Yun; Koh, Won-Jung; Suh, Gee Young; Guallar, Eliseo

2017-10-01

Poor functional status (FS) has been suggested as a poor prognostic factor in both pneumonia and severe pneumonia in elderly patients. However, it is still unclear whether FS is associated with outcomes and improves survival prediction in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in the general population. Data on hospitalized patients with CAP and FS, assessed by the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale were prospectively collected between January 2008 and December 2012. The independent association of FS with 30-day mortality in CAP patients was evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. Improvement in mortality prediction when FS was added to the CRB-65 (confusion, respiratory rate, blood pressure and age 65) score was evaluated for discrimination, reclassification and calibration. The 30-day mortality of study participants (n = 1526) was 10%. Mortality significantly increased with higher ECOG score (P for trend <0.001). In multivariable analysis, ECOG ≥3 was strongly associated with 30-day mortality (adjusted OR: 5.70; 95% CI: 3.82-8.50). Adding ECOG ≥3 significantly improved the discriminatory power of CRB-65. Reclassification indices also confirmed the improvement in discrimination ability when FS was combined with the CRB-65, with a categorized net reclassification index (NRI) of 0.561 (0.437-0.686), a continuous NRI of 0.858 (0.696-1.019) and a relative integrated discrimination improvement in the discrimination slope of 139.8 % (110.8-154.6). FS predicted 30-day mortality and improved discrimination and reclassification in consecutive CAP patients. Assessment of premorbid FS should be considered in mortality prediction in patients with CAP. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

The Prediction of Drought-Related Tree Mortality in Vegetation Models

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Schwinning, S.; Jensen, J.; Lomas, M. R.; Schwartz, B.; Woodward, F. I.

2013-12-01

Drought-related tree die-off events at regional scales have been reported from all wooded continents and it has been suggested that their frequency may be increasing. The prediction of these drought-related die-off events from regional to global scales has been recognized as a critical need for the conservation of forest resources and improving the prediction of climate-vegetation interactions. However, there is no conceptual consensus on how to best approach the quantitative prediction of tree mortality. Current models use a variety of mechanisms to represent demographic events. Mortality is modeled to represent a number of different processes, including death by fire, wind throw, extreme temperatures, and self-thinning, and each vegetation model differs in the emphasis they place on specific mechanisms. Dynamic global vegetation models generally operate on the assumption of incremental vegetation shift due to changes in the carbon economy of plant functional types and proportional effects on recruitment, growth, competition and mortality, but this may not capture sudden and sweeping tree death caused by extreme weather conditions. We tested several different approaches to predicting tree mortality within the framework of the Sheffield Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. We applied the model to the state of Texas, USA, which in 2011 experienced extreme drought conditions, causing the death of an estimated 300 million trees statewide. We then compared predicted to actual mortality to determine which algorithms most accurately predicted geographical variation in tree mortality. We discuss implications regarding the ongoing debate on the causes of tree death.

Predicting the mortality in geriatric patients with dengue fever

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Huang, Hung-Sheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin; Ye, Je-Chiuan; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Lin, Hung-Jung

2017-01-01

Abstract Geriatric patients have high mortality for dengue fever (DF); however, there is no adequate method to predict mortality in geriatric patients. Therefore, we conducted this study to develop a tool in an attempt to address this issue. We conducted a retrospective case–control study in a tertiary medical center during the DF outbreak in Taiwan in 2015. All the geriatric patients (aged ≥65 years) who visited the study hospital between September 1, 2015, and December 31, 2015, were recruited into this study. Variables included demographic data, vital signs, symptoms and signs, comorbidities, living status, laboratory data, and 30-day mortality. We investigated independent mortality predictors by univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analysis and then combined these predictors to predict the mortality. A total of 627 geriatric DF patients were recruited, with a mortality rate of 4.3% (27 deaths and 600 survivals). The following 4 independent mortality predictors were identified: severe coma [Glasgow Coma Scale: ≤8; adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 11.36; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.89–68.19], bedridden (AOR: 10.46; 95% CI: 1.58–69.16), severe hepatitis (aspartate aminotransferase >1000 U/L; AOR: 96.08; 95% CI: 14.11–654.40), and renal failure (serum creatinine >2 mg/dL; AOR: 6.03; 95% CI: 1.50–24.24). When we combined the predictors, we found that the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for patients with 1 or more predictors were 70.37%, 88.17%, 21.11%, and 98.51%, respectively. For patients with 2 or more predictors, the respective values were 33.33%, 99.44%, 57.14%, and 98.51%. We developed a new method to help decision making. Among geriatric patients with none of the predictors, the survival rate was 98.51%, and among those with 2 or more predictors, the mortality rate was 57.14%. This method is simple and useful, especially in an outbreak. PMID:28906367

A Risk Prediction Score for Kidney Failure or Mortality in Rhabdomyolysis

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McMahon, Gearoid M.; Zeng, Xiaoxi; Waikar, Sushrut S.

2016-01-01

IMPORTANCE Rhabdomyolysis ranges in severity from asymptomatic elevations in creatine phosphokinase levels to a life-threatening disorder characterized by severe acute kidney injury requiring hemodialysis or continuous renal replacement therapy (RRT). OBJECTIVE To develop a risk prediction tool to identify patients at greatest risk of RRT or in-hospital mortality. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Retrospective cohort study of 2371 patients admitted between January 1, 2000, and March 31, 2011, to 2 large teaching hospitals in Boston, Massachusetts, with creatine phosphokinase levels in excess of 5000 U/L within 3 days of admission. The derivation cohort consisted of 1397 patients from Massachusetts General Hospital, and the validation cohort comprised 974 patients from Brigham and Women’s Hospital. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The composite of RRT or in-hospital mortality. RESULTS The causes and outcomes of rhabdomyolysis were similar between the derivation and validation cohorts. In total, the composite outcome occurred in 19.0% of patients (8.0% required RRT and 14.1% died during hospitalization). The highest rates of the composite outcome were from compartment syndrome (41.2%), sepsis (39.3%), and following cardiac arrest (58.5%). The lowest rates were from myositis (1.7%), exercise (3.2%), and seizures (6.0%). The independent predictors of the composite outcome were age, female sex, cause of rhabdomyolysis, and values of initial creatinine, creatine phosphokinase, phosphate, calcium, and bicarbonate. We developed a risk-prediction score from these variables in the derivation cohort and subsequently applied it in the validation cohort. The C statistic for the prediction model was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.80–0.85) in the derivation cohort and 0.83 (0.80–0.86) in the validation cohort. The Hosmer-Lemeshow P values were .14 and .28, respectively. In the validation cohort, among the patients with the lowest risk score (10), 61.2% died or needed RRT. CONCLUSIONS AND

Multi-scale predictions of coniferous forest mortality in the northern hemisphere

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McDowell, N. G.

2015-12-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our incomplete understanding of the fundamental physiological thresholds of vegetation mortality during drought limits our ability to accurately simulate future vegetation distributions and associated climate feedbacks. Here we integrate experimental evidence with models to show potential widespread loss of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET; ~ conifers) within the Southwest USA by 2100; with rising temperature being the primary cause of mortality. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ypd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, stomatal and hydraulic conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. Empirical and mechanistic models accurately predicted NET Ypd, and 91% of predictions (10/11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the 21st century due to temperature rise. Completely independent global models predicted >50% loss of northern hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the findings for Southwest USA. The global models disagreed with the ecosystem process models in regards to future mortality in Southwest USA, however, highlighting the potential underestimates of future NET mortality as simulated by the global models and signifying the importance of improving regional predictions. Taken together, these results from the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict global-scale conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs: A validation study.

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Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-03-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month model, dogs with a relatively low risk of 5-month mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy treatment. In the present study, we externally validated these results using an independent cohort study of 794 dogs. External performance of our prediction models showed some disagreement between observed and predicted risk, mean difference: -0.11 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]-0.29; 0.08) for 5-month risk and 0.25 (95%CI 0.10; 0.40) for 1-year mortality risk. After updating the intercept, agreement improved: -0.0004 (95%CI-0.16; 0.16) and -0.002 (95%CI-0.15; 0.15). The chemotherapy by predicted mortality risk interaction (P-value=0.01) showed that the chemotherapy compared to no chemotherapy effectiveness was modified by 5-month mortality risk: dogs with a relatively lower risk of mortality benefited most from additional chemotherapy. Chemotherapy effectiveness on 1-year mortality was not significantly modified by predicted risk (P-value=0.28). In conclusion, this external validation study confirmed that our multivariable risk prediction models can predict a patient's mortality risk and that dogs with a relatively lower risk of 5-month mortality seem to benefit most from chemotherapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

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Brian J. Wells

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent.Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD, heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS for CHD and stroke, respectively.Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062, heart failure (1408, stroke (1451, and mortality (3661. The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730, heart failure (0.753, stroke (0.688, and mortality (0.719. The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke.Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading “Type 2 Diabetes” and entitled, “Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality.” This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician’s choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

Bone Marrow Pathology Predicts Mortality in Chronic Hemodialysis Patients

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Cheng-Hao Weng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. A bone marrow biopsy is a useful procedure for the diagnosis and staging of various hematologic and systemic diseases. The objective of this study was to investigate whether the findings of bone marrow studies can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. Methods. Seventy-eight end-stage renal disease patients on maintenance hemodialysis underwent bone marrow biopsies between 2000 and 2011, with the most common indication being unexplained anemia followed by unexplained leukocytosis and leukopenia. Results. The survivors had a higher incidence of abnormal megakaryocyte distribution P=0.001, band and segmented cells P=0.021, and lymphoid cells P=0.029 than the nonsurvivors. The overall mortality rate was 38.5% (30/78, and the most common cause of mortality was sepsis (83.3% followed by respiratory failure (10%. In multivariate Cox regression analysis, both decreased (OR 3.714, 95% CI 1.671–8.253, P=0.001 and absent (OR 9.751, 95% CI 2.030–45.115, P=0.004 megakaryocyte distribution (normal megakaryocyte distribution as the reference group, as well as myeloid/erythroid ratio (OR 1.054, CI 1.012–1.098, P=0.011, were predictive of mortality. Conclusion. The results of a bone marrow biopsy can be used to assess the pathology, and, in addition, myeloid/erythroid ratio and abnormal megakaryocyte distribution can predict mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients.

Does exercise motivation predict engagement in objectively assessed bouts of moderate-intensity exercise? A self-determination theory perspective.

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Standage, Martyn; Sebire, Simon J; Loney, Tom

2008-08-01

This study examined the utility of motivation as advanced by self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000) in predicting objectively assessed bouts of moderate intensity exercise behavior. Participants provided data pertaining to their exercise motivation. One week later, participants wore a combined accelerometer and heart rate monitor (Actiheart; Cambridge Neurotechnology Ltd) and 24-hr energy expenditure was estimated for 7 days. After controlling for gender and a combined marker of BMI and waist circumference, results showed autonomous motivation to positively predict moderate-intensity exercise bouts of >or=10 min, or=20 min, and an accumulation needed to meet public health recommendations for moderate intensity activity (i.e., ACSM/AHA guidelines). The present findings add bouts of objectively assessed exercise behavior to the growing body of literature that documents the adaptive consequences of engaging in exercise for autonomous reasons. Implications for practice and future work are discussed.

Depressive Symptoms, Exercise Capacity, and Clinical Outcomes After Lung Transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Patrick J; Byrd, Rebecca; Lusby, Megan; Clausen, Emily; Snyder, Laurie D

2018-05-01

Depressive symptoms are common among lung transplant recipients and have been associated with worse clinical outcomes. However, few studies have examined the association between depressive symptoms assessed at multiple time points or behavioral mechanisms by which posttransplant depressive symptoms may confer greater clinical risk. We therefore examined the associations between depressive symptoms, exercise capacity, chronic lung allograft dysfunction (CLAD), and mortality prospectively in a large sample of lung transplant recipients. Between July 2009 and February 2016, 251 lung transplant recipients were assessed before transplantation and again approximately 3 weeks and 3 months after transplant. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the Centers for Epidemiologic Studies of Depression scale. Functional exercise capacity was assessed using the 6-minute walk test. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between depressive symptoms, exercise capacity, CLAD, and mortality. During a median (range) follow-up of 4.5 (0.1 to 6.3) years, 53 participants (21%) died. Greater depressive symptoms (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.39 [95% CI = 1.05 to 1.84], p = .021) and poorer exercise capacity (HR = 0.58 [95% CI = 0.38 to 0.90], p = .021) assessed 3 months after transplant were both independently associated with mortality. Although greater depressive symptoms were associated with lower exercise capacity (β = -0.14, p = .039), exercise capacity did not mediate the association between depressive symptoms and mortality. In secondary analyses, depressive symptoms were independently predictive of CLAD (HR = 1.29 [95% CI = 1.01 to 1.65], p = .045) and the composite outcome of CLAD and mortality in a clustered event model (HR = 1.30 [1.09 to 1.56], p = .005). Depressive symptoms are associated with mortality and CLAD after lung transplantation, independent of exercise capacity.

Factors predicting barriers to exercise in midlife Australian women.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, Amanda; Seib, Charrlotte; Anderson, Debra

2016-05-01

Chronic diseases are the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. They are, though, largely attributable to modifiable lifestyle risk factors, including lack of exercise. This study aims to investigate what factors predict perceptions of barriers to exercise in midlife women. This cross-sectional descriptive study collected data from midlife Australian women by online questionnaire. Volunteers aged between 40 and 65 years were recruited following media publicity about the study. The primary outcome measure was perceived exercise barriers (EBBS Barriers sub-scale). Other self-report data included: exercise, smoking, alcohol, fruit and vegetable consumption, body mass index, physical and mental health and well-being (MOS SF-12v2) and exercise self-efficacy. On average, the 225 participants were aged 50.9 years (SD=5.9). The significant predictors of perceived barriers to exercise were perceived benefits of exercise, exercise self-efficacy, physical well-being and mental well-being. These variables explained 41% of the variance in the final model (F (8219)=20.1, pexercise correlate with beliefs about the health benefits of exercise, exercise self-efficacy, physical and mental well-being. These findings have application to health promotion interventions targeting exercise behaviour change in midlife women. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

Science.gov (United States)

Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

2010-02-01

Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

A biological approach to the interspecies prediction of radiation-induced mortality risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carnes, B.A.; Grahn, D.; Olshansky, S.J.

1997-01-01

Evolutionary explanations for why sexually reproducing organisms grow old suggest that the forces of natural selection affect the ages when diseases occur that are subject to a genetic influence (referred to here as intrinsic diseases). When extended to the population level for a species, this logic leads to the general prediction that age-specific death rates from intrinsic causes should begin to rise as the force of selection wanes once the characteristic age of sexual maturity is attained. Results consistent with these predictions have been found for laboratory mice, beagles, and humans where, after adjusting for differences in life span, it was demonstrated that these species share a common age pattern of mortality for intrinsic causes of death. In quantitative models used to predict radiation-induced mortality, risks are often expressed as multiples of those observed in a control population. A control population, however, is an aging population. As such, mortality risks related to exposure must be interpreted relative to the age-specific risk of death associated with aging. Given the previous success in making interspecies predictions of age-related mortality, the purpose of this study was to determine whether radiation-induced mortality observed in one species could also be predicted quantitatively from a model used to describe the mortality consequences of exposure to radiation in a different species. Mortality data for B6CF 1 mice and beagles exposed to 60 Co γ-rays for the duration of life were used for analysis

[Prediction of mortality in patients with acute hepatic failure].

Science.gov (United States)

Eremeeva, L F; Berdnikov, A P; Musaeva, T S; Zabolotskikh, I B

2013-01-01

The article deals with a study of 243 patients (from 18 to 65 years old) with acute hepatic failure. Purpose of the study was to evaluate the predictive capability of severity scales APACHE III, SOFA, MODS, Child-Pugh and to identify mortality predictors in patients with acute hepatic failure. Results; The best predictive ability in patients with acute hepatic failure and multiple organ failure had APACHE III and SOFA scales. The strongest mortality predictors were: serum creatinine > 132 mmol/L, fibrinogen < 1.4 g/L, Na < 129 mmol/L.

Can the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score predict postoperative complications other than mortality?

Science.gov (United States)

Major, Piotr; Wysocki, Michał; Pędziwiatr, Michał; Małczak, Piotr; Pisarska, Magdalena; Migaczewski, Marcin; Winiarski, Marek; Budzyński, Andrzej

2016-01-01

Laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy (LSG) and laparoscopic Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (LRYGB) are bariatric procedures with acceptable risk of postoperative morbidities and mortalities, but identification of high-risk patients is an ongoing issue. DeMaria et al. introduced the Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score (OS-MRS), which was designed for mortality risk assessment but not perioperative morbidity risk. To assess the possibility to use the OS-MRS to predict the risk of perioperative complications related to LSG and LRYGB. Retrospective analysis of patients operated on for morbid obesity was performed. Patients were evaluated before and after surgery. We included 408 patients (233 LSG, 175 LRYGB). Perioperative complications were defined as adverse effects in the 30-day period. The Clavien-Dindo scale was used for description of complications. Patients were assigned to five grades and three classes according to the OS-MRS results, then risk of morbidity was analyzed. Complications were observed in 30 (7.35%) patients. Similar morbidity was related to both procedures (OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 0.53-2.44, p = 0.744). The reoperation and mortality rates were 1.23% and 0.49% respectively. There were no significant differences in median OS-MRS value between the group without and the group with perioperative complications. There were no significant differences in OS-MRS between groups (p = 0.091). Obesity Surgery Mortality Risk Score was not related to Clavien-Dindo grades (p = 0.800). It appears that OS-MRS is not useful in predicting risk of perioperative morbidity after bariatric procedures.

Blind prediction exercise on modeling of PHWR fuel at extended burnup

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sah, D.N.; Viswanathan, U.K.; Viswanadham, C.S.; Unnikrishnan, K.; Rath, B.N.

2008-01-01

A blind prediction exercise was organised on Indian Pressurised Heavy Water Reactor (PHWR) fuel to investigate the predictive capability of existing codes for their application at extended burnup and to identify areas of improvement. The blind problem for this exercise was based on a PHWR fuel bundle irradiated in Kakrapar Atomic Power Station-I (KAPS-I) up to about 15 000 MWd/tU and subjected to detailed post-irradiation examination (PIE) in the hot cells facility at BARC. Eleven computer codes from seven countries participated in this exercise. The participants provided blind predictions of fuel temperature, fission gas release, internal gas pressure and other performance parameters for the fuel pins. The predictions were compared with the experimental PIE data which included fuel temperature derived from fuel restructuring, fission gas release measured by fuel pin puncturing, internal gas pressure in pin, cladding oxidation and fuel microstructural data. The details of the blind problem and an analysis of the results of blind predictions by the codes vis-a-vis measured data are provided in this paper

Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Mohamad Hasnan; Shahar, Suzana; Teng, Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi; Manaf, Zahara Abdul; Sakian, Noor Ibrahim Mohd; Omar, Baharudin

2014-01-01

This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB) among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men) and 66.1±5.1 (women) years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1) exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women); and 2) the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women). Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (β=0.60) and perceived behavioral control (β=0.24) were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (β=0.82) was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, β=0.68; women’s, β=0.24) and subjective norm (men’s, β=0.12; women’s, β=0.87) were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (β=0.36) and women (β=0.49). “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and to predict maintenance of exercise in the sarcopenic elderly. PMID:25258524

Multi-scale predictions of massive conifer mortality due to chronic temperature rise

Science.gov (United States)

McDowell, N. G.; Williams, A. P.; Xu, C.; Pockman, W. T.; Dickman, L. T.; Sevanto, S.; Pangle, R.; Limousin, J.; Plaut, J.; Mackay, D. S.; Ogee, J.; Domec, J. C.; Allen, C. D.; Fisher, R. A.; Jiang, X.; Muss, J. D.; Breshears, D. D.; Rauscher, S. A.; Koven, C.

2016-03-01

Global temperature rise and extremes accompanying drought threaten forests and their associated climatic feedbacks. Our ability to accurately simulate drought-induced forest impacts remains highly uncertain in part owing to our failure to integrate physiological measurements, regional-scale models, and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). Here we show consistent predictions of widespread mortality of needleleaf evergreen trees (NET) within Southwest USA by 2100 using state-of-the-art models evaluated against empirical data sets. Experimentally, dominant Southwest USA NET species died when they fell below predawn water potential (Ψpd) thresholds (April-August mean) beyond which photosynthesis, hydraulic and stomatal conductance, and carbohydrate availability approached zero. The evaluated regional models accurately predicted NET Ψpd, and 91% of predictions (10 out of 11) exceeded mortality thresholds within the twenty-first century due to temperature rise. The independent DGVMs predicted >=50% loss of Northern Hemisphere NET by 2100, consistent with the NET findings for Southwest USA. Notably, the global models underestimated future mortality within Southwest USA, highlighting that predictions of future mortality within global models may be underestimates. Taken together, the validated regional predictions and the global simulations predict widespread conifer loss in coming decades under projected global warming.

Validation of the mortality prediction equation for damage control ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

, preoperative lowest pH and lowest core body temperature to derive an equation for the purpose of predicting mortality in damage control surgery. It was shown to reliably predict death despite damage control surgery. The equation derivation ...

Osteoporosis-Related Mortality: Time-Trends and Predictive Factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nelly Ziadé

2014-07-01

Full Text Available Osteoporosis is one of the leading causes of handicap worldwide and a major contributor to the global burden of diseases. In particular, osteoporosis is associated with excess mortality. We reviewed the impact of osteoporosis on mortality in a population by defining three categories: mortality following hip fractures, mortality following other sites of fractures, and mortality associated with low bone mineral density (BMD. Hip fractures, as well as other fractures at major sites are all associated with excess mortality, except at the forearm site. This excess mortality is higher during the first 3-6 months after the fracture and then declines over time, but remains higher than the mortality of the normal population up to 22 years after the fracture. Low BMD is also associated with high mortality, with hazard ratios of around 1.3 for every decrease in 1 standard deviation of bone density at 5 years, independently of fractures, reflecting a more fragile population. Finally predictors of mortality were identified and categorised in demographic known factors (age and male gender and in factors reflecting a poor general health status such as the number of comorbidities, low mental status, or level of social dependence. Our results indicate that the management of a patient with osteoporosis should include a multivariate approach that could be based on predictive models in the future.

Magnitude of bacteraemia predicts one-year mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gradel, Kim Oren; Schønheyder, Henrik Carl; Søgaard, Mette

Objectives: All hospitals in our region use the BacT/Alert® blood culture (BC) system with a 3-bottle BC set for adults. We hypothesized that the magnitude of bacteremia (i.e., number of positive bottles in the initial BC set) predicted one-year mortality. Methods In a population-based study we...... with a BC index of 1 (i.e., one positive bottle) were chosen as the reference group. We computed Kaplan-Meier curves and performed Cox regression analyses to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRRs) with 95 % confidence intervals [CIs] 30 and 365 days after the initial BC sampling date, first in crude analyses...... mortality....

Factors predicting mortality in elderly patients admitted to a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The median age was 70 years (interquartile range 67 - 75 years). The overall ICU mortality was 44.7%, and 64% of deaths occurred within 5 days of admission. On univariate analysis, the factors predicting mortality were alcohol misuse (p=0.09), pneumonia (p.0.001), shock (p=0.001), dehydration (p=0.007), urine output ...

[Value of sepsis single-disease manage system in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis].

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, J; Wang, L H; Ouyang, B; Chen, M Y; Wu, J F; Liu, Y J; Liu, Z M; Guan, X D

2018-04-03

Objective: To observe the effect of sepsis single-disease manage system on the improvement of sepsis treatment and the value in predicting mortality in patients with sepsis. Methods: A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with sepsis admitted to the Department of Surgical Intensive Care Unit of Sun Yat-Sen University First Affiliated Hospital from September 22, 2013 to May 5, 2015 were enrolled in this study. Sepsis single-disease manage system (Rui Xin clinical data manage system, China data, China) was used to monitor 25 clinical quality parameters, consisting of timeliness, normalization and outcome parameters. Based on whether these quality parameters could be completed or not, the clinical practice was evaluated by the system. The unachieved quality parameter was defined as suspicious parameters, and these suspicious parameters were used to predict mortality of patients with receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC). Results: A total of 1 220 patients with sepsis were enrolled, included 805 males and 415 females. The mean age was (59±17) years, and acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE Ⅱ) scores was 19±8. The area under ROC curve of total suspicious numbers for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.70; when the suspicious parameters number was more than 6, the sensitivity was 68.0% and the specificity was 61.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. In addition, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious number for predicting 28-day mortality was 0.89; when the suspicious outcome parameters numbers was more than 1, the sensitivity was 88.0% and the specificity was 78.0% for predicting 28-day mortality. Moreover, the area under ROC curve of total suspicious number for predicting 90-day mortality was 0.73; when the total suspicious parameters number was more than 7, the sensitivity was 60.0% and the specificity was 74.0% for predicting 90-day mortality. Finally, the area under ROC curve of outcome suspicious numbers for predicting 90

Predicting Insulin Absorption and Glucose Uptake during Exercise in Type 1 Diabetes

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, Spencer; Hinshaw, Ling; Basu, Rita; Szeri, Andrew; Basu, Ananda

2017-11-01

A dose of insulin infused into subcutaneous tissue has been shown to absorb more quickly during exercise, potentially causing hypoglycemia in persons with type 1 diabetes. We develop a model that relates exercise-induced physiological changes to enhanced insulin-absorption (k) and glucose uptake (GU). Drawing on concepts of the microcirculation we derive a relationship that reveals that k and GU are mainly determined by two physiological parameters that characterize the tissue: the tissue perfusion rate (Q) and the capillary permeability surface area (PS). Independently measured values of Q and PS from the literature are used in the model to make predictions of k and GU. We compare these predictions to experimental observations of healthy and diabetic patients that are given a meal followed by rest or exercise. The experiments show that during exercise insulin concentrations significantly increase and that glucose levels fall rapidly. The model predictions are consistent with the experiments and show that increases in Q and PS directly increase k and GU. This mechanistic understanding provides a basis for handling exercise in control algorithms for an artificial pancreas. Now at University of British Columbia.

Early hospital mortality prediction of intensive care unit patients using an ensemble learning approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Awad, Aya; Bader-El-Den, Mohamed; McNicholas, James; Briggs, Jim

2017-12-01

Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48h after ICU admission. This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6h compared to 48h or more after admission). The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission

Predicting Athletes’ Pre-Exercise Fluid Intake: A Theoretical Integration Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chunxiao Li

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Pre-exercise fluid intake is an important healthy behavior for maintaining athletes’ sports performances and health. However, athletes’ behavioral adherence to fluid intake and its underlying psychological mechanisms have not been investigated. This prospective study aimed to use a health psychology model that integrates the self-determination theory and the theory of planned behavior for understanding pre-exercise fluid intake among athletes. Participants (n = 179 were athletes from college sport teams who completed surveys at two time points. Baseline (Time 1 assessment comprised psychological variables of the integrated model (i.e., autonomous and controlled motivation, attitude, subjective norm, perceived behavioral control, and intention and fluid intake (i.e., behavior was measured prospectively at one month (Time 2. Path analysis showed that the positive association between autonomous motivation and intention was mediated by subjective norm and perceived behavioral control. Controlled motivation positively predicted the subjective norm. Intentions positively predicted pre-exercise fluid intake behavior. Overall, the pattern of results was generally consistent with the integrated model, and it was suggested that athletes’ pre-exercise fluid intake behaviors were associated with the motivational and social cognitive factors of the model. The research findings could be informative for coaches and sport scientists to promote athletes’ pre-exercise fluid intake behaviors.

Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents’ Future Affective Experience during Exercise

Science.gov (United States)

Karnaze, Melissa M.; Levine, Linda J.; Schneider, Margaret

2018-01-01

Purpose Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents’ feelings during exercise. Method During the first semester of the school year, we assessed sixth grade students’ (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test, and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the second semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Results Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise, and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. Conclusion These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences. PMID:28494196

Misremembering Past Affect Predicts Adolescents' Future Affective Experience During Exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Karnaze, Melissa M; Levine, Linda J; Schneider, Margaret

2017-09-01

Increasing physical activity among adolescents is a public health priority. Because people are motivated to engage in activities that make them feel good, this study examined predictors of adolescents' feelings during exercise. During the 1st semester of the school year, we assessed 6th-grade students' (N = 136) cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise. Participants also reported their affect during a cardiovascular fitness test and recalled their affect during the fitness test later that semester. During the 2nd semester, the same participants rated their affect during a moderate-intensity exercise task. Affect reported during the moderate-intensity exercise task was predicted by cognitive appraisals of the importance of exercise and by misremembering affect during the fitness test as more positive than it actually was. This memory bias mediated the association between appraising exercise as important and experiencing a positive change in affect during the moderate-intensity exercise task. These findings highlight the roles of both cognitive appraisals and memory as factors that may influence affect during exercise. Future work should explore whether affect during exercise can be modified by targeting appraisals and memories related to exercise experiences.

Performance of in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization: Hospital Standardized Mortality Ratio in Japan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Motomura Noboru

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective In-hospital mortality is an important performance measure for quality improvement, although it requires proper risk adjustment. We set out to develop in-hospital mortality prediction models for acute hospitalization using a nation-wide electronic administrative record system in Japan. Methods Administrative records of 224,207 patients (patients discharged from 82 hospitals in Japan between July 1, 2002 and October 31, 2002 were randomly split into preliminary (179,156 records and test (45,051 records groups. Study variables included Major Diagnostic Category, age, gender, ambulance use, admission status, length of hospital stay, comorbidity, and in-hospital mortality. ICD-10 codes were converted to calculate comorbidity scores based on Quan's methodology. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was then performed using in-hospital mortality as a dependent variable. C-indexes were calculated across risk groups in order to evaluate model performances. Results In-hospital mortality rates were 2.68% and 2.76% for the preliminary and test datasets, respectively. C-index values were 0.869 for the model that excluded length of stay and 0.841 for the model that included length of stay. Conclusion Risk models developed in this study included a set of variables easily accessible from administrative data, and still successfully exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. These models can be used to estimate in-hospital mortality rates of various diagnoses and procedures.

Pressure-Flow During Exercise Catheterization Predicts Survival in Pulmonary Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Hasler, Elisabeth D; Müller-Mottet, Séverine; Furian, Michael; Saxer, Stéphanie; Huber, Lars C; Maggiorini, Marco; Speich, Rudolf; Bloch, Konrad E; Ulrich, Silvia

2016-07-01

Pulmonary hypertension manifests with impaired exercise capacity. Our aim was to investigate whether the mean pulmonary arterial pressure to cardiac output relationship (mPAP/CO) predicts transplant-free survival in patients with pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) and inoperable chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH). Hemodynamic data according to right heart catheterization in patients with PAH and CTEPH at rest and during supine incremental cycle exercise were analyzed. Transplant-free survival and predictive value of hemodynamics were assessed by using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analyses. Seventy patients (43 female; 54 with PAH, 16 with CTEPH; median (quartiles) age, 65 [50; 73] years; mPAP, 34 [29; 44] mm Hg; cardiac index, 2.8 [2.3; 3.5] [L/min]/m(2)) were followed up for 610 (251; 1256) days. Survival at 1, 3, 5, and 7 years was 89%, 81%, 71%, and 59%. Age, World Health Organization-functional class, 6-min walk test, and mixed-venous oxygen saturation (but not resting hemodynamics) predicted transplant-free survival. Maximal workload (hazard ratio [HR], 0.94 [95% CI, 0.89-0.99]; P = .027), peak cardiac index (HR, 0.51 [95% CI, 0.27-0.95]; P = .034), change in cardiac index, 0.25 [95% CI, 0.06-0.94]; P = .040), and mPAP/CO (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.01-1.03]; P = .003) during exercise predicted survival. Values for mPAP/CO predicted 3-year transplant-free survival with an area under the curve of 0.802 (95% CI, 0.66-0.95; P = .004). In this collective of patients with PAH or CTEPH, the pressure-flow relationship during exercise predicted transplant-free survival and correlated with established markers of disease severity and outcome. Right heart catheterization during exercise may provide important complementary prognostic information in the management of pulmonary hypertension. Copyright © 2016 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Anxiety Sensitivity Uniquely Predicts Exercise Behaviors in Young Adults Seeking to Increase Physical Activity.

Science.gov (United States)

Moshier, Samantha J; Szuhany, Kristin L; Hearon, Bridget A; Smits, Jasper A J; Otto, Michael W

2016-01-01

Individuals with elevated levels of anxiety sensitivity (AS) may be motivated to avoid aversive emotional or physical states, and therefore may have greater difficulty achieving healthy behavioral change. This may be particularly true for exercise, which produces many of the somatic sensations within the domain of AS concerns. Cross-sectional studies show a negative association between AS and exercise. However, little is known about how AS may prospectively affect attempts at behavior change in individuals who are motivated to increase their exercise. We recruited 145 young adults who self-identified as having a desire to increase their exercise behavior. Participants completed a web survey assessing AS and additional variables identified as important for behavior change-impulsivity, grit, perceived behavioral control, and action planning-and set a specific goal for exercising in the next week. One week later, a second survey assessed participants' success in meeting their exercise goals. We hypothesized that individuals with higher AS would choose lower exercise goals and would complete less exercise at the second survey. AS was not significantly associated with exercise goal level, but significantly and negatively predicted exercise at Time 2 and was the only variable to offer significant prediction beyond consideration of baseline exercise levels. These results underscore the importance of considering AS in relation to health behavior intentions. This is particularly apt given the absence of prediction offered by other traditional predictors of behavior change. © The Author(s) 2015.

Do Parents’ Exercise Habits Predict 13–18-Year-Old Adolescents’ Involvement in Sport?

Science.gov (United States)

Sukys, Saulius; Majauskienė, Daiva; Cesnaitiene, Vida J.; Karanauskiene, Diana

2014-01-01

This study examined links between parents’ exercise habits and adolescents’ participation in sports activities, considering the aspects of gender and age. It was hypothesized that regular exercise by both parents would be related to children’s involvement in sport regardless of their gender and age. Moreover, it was hypothesized that children’s sports activities would be more strongly related to their father’s exercise activities. The study also examined the links between parents’ exercise habits and children’s motivation for sports. It was hypothesized that competition motives would be more important for children whose parents exercised regularly. The research sample included 2335 students from the seventh (n = 857), ninth (n = 960) and eleventh (n = 518) grades of various Lithuanian schools. The study used a questionnaire survey method, which revealed the links between parents’ exercise habits and their children’s participation in sport. Assessment of data for girls and boys showed that daughters’ participation in sport could be predicted by both their fathers’ and mothers’ exercise habits, but sons’ sports activities could be predicted only by the regular physical activities of their fathers. The assessment of children’s sporting activities according to age revealed links between parental exercising and the engagement of older (15–16 years old), but not younger adolescents (13–14 years old). Analysis of sports motivation showed that competition motives were more important for boys than for girls. Fitness, well-being and appearance motives were more important for older adolescents (15–18 years old), while competition motives were more important for younger adolescents (13–14 years old). Research revealed the relationship between children’s sport motives and fathers’ exercise habits, while examination of mothers’ exercise revealed no difference. Key points Parental exercising significantly predicts adolescents�

A Risk Prediction Model for In-hospital Mortality in Patients with Suspected Myocarditis.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Duo; Zhao, Ruo-Chi; Gao, Wen-Hui; Cui, Han-Bin

2017-04-05

Myocarditis is an inflammatory disease of the myocardium that may lead to cardiac death in some patients. However, little is known about the predictors of in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis by establishing a risk prediction model. A retrospective study was performed to analyze the clinical medical records of 403 consecutive patients with suspected myocarditis who were admitted to Ningbo First Hospital between January 2003 and December 2013. A total of 238 males (59%) and 165 females (41%) were enrolled in this study. We divided the above patients into two subgroups (survival and nonsurvival), according to their clinical in-hospital outcomes. To maximize the effectiveness of the prediction model, we first identified the potential risk factors for in-hospital mortality among patients with suspected myocarditis, based on data pertaining to previously established risk factors and basic patient characteristics. We subsequently established a regression model for predicting in-hospital mortality using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Finally, we identified the independent risk factors for in-hospital mortality using our risk prediction model. The following prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis, including creatinine clearance rate (Ccr), age, ventricular tachycardia (VT), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, gender and cardiac troponin T (cTnT), was established in the study: P = ea/(1 + ea) (where e is the exponential function, P is the probability of in-hospital death, and a = -7.34 + 2.99 × [Ccr model demonstrated that a Ccr prediction model for in-hospital mortality in patients with suspected myocarditis. In addition, sufficient life support during the early stage of the disease might improve the prognoses of patients with

Clinical utility of EMSE and STESS in predicting hospital mortality for status epilepticus.

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Zhang, Yu; Chen, Deng; Xu, Da; Tan, Ge; Liu, Ling

2018-05-25

To explore the applicability of the epidemiology-based mortality score in status epilepticus (EMSE) and the status epilepticus severity score (STESS) in predicting hospital mortality in patients with status epilepticus (SE) in western China. Furthermore, we sought to compare the abilities of the two scales to predict mortality from convulsive status epilepticus (CSE) and non-convulsive status epilepticus (NCSE). Patients with epilepsy (n = 253) were recruited from the West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2012 to January 2016. The EMSE and STESS for all patients were calculated immediately after admission. The main outcome was in-hospital death. The predicted values were analysed using SPSS 22.0 receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Of the 253 patients with SE who were included in the study, 39 (15.4%) died in the hospital. Using STESS ≥4 points to predict SE mortality, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.724 (P  0.05), while EMSE ≥90 points gave an AUC of 0.666 (P > 0.05). The hospital mortality rate from SE in this study was 15.4%. Those with STESS ≥4 points or EMSE ≥79 points had higher rates of SE mortality. Both STESS and EMSE are less useful predicting in-hospital mortality in NCSE compared to CSE. Furthermore, the EMSE has some advantages over the STESS. Copyright © 2018 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying theory of planned behavior to predict exercise maintenance in sarcopenic elderly

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad MH

2014-09-01

Full Text Available Mohamad Hasnan Ahmad,1 Suzana Shahar,2 Nur Islami Mohd Fahmi Teng,2 Zahara Abdul Manaf,2 Noor Ibrahim Mohd Sakian,3 Baharudin Omar41Centre of Nutrition Epidemiology Research, Institute of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia; 2Dietetics Program, 3Occupational Therapy Program, 4Department of Biomedical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Abstract: This study aimed to determine the factors associated with exercise behavior based on the theory of planned behavior (TPB among the sarcopenic elderly people in Cheras, Kuala ­Lumpur. A total of 65 subjects with mean ages of 67.5±5.2 (men and 66.1±5.1 (women years participated in this study. Subjects were divided into two groups: 1 exercise group (n=34; 25 men, nine women; and 2 the control group (n=31; 22 men, nine women. Structural equation modeling, based on TPB components, was applied to determine specific factors that most contribute to and predict actual behavior toward exercise. Based on the TPB’s model, attitude (ß=0.60 and perceived behavioral control (ß=0.24 were the major predictors of intention to exercise among men at the baseline. Among women, the subjective norm (ß=0.82 was the major predictor of intention to perform the exercise at the baseline. After 12 weeks, attitude (men’s, ß=0.68; women’s, ß=0.24 and subjective norm (men’s, ß=0.12; women’s, ß=0.87 were the predictors of the intention to perform the exercise. “Feels healthier with exercise” was the specific factor to improve the intention to perform and to maintain exercise behavior in men (ß=0.36 and women (ß=0.49. “Not motivated to perform exercise” was the main barrier among men’s intention to exercise. The intention to perform the exercise was able to predict actual behavior regarding exercise at the baseline and at 12 weeks of an intervention program. As a conclusion, TPB is a useful model to determine and

Predicting Early Mortality After Hip Fracture Surgery: The Hip Fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam.

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Karres, Julian; Kieviet, Noera; Eerenberg, Jan-Peter; Vrouenraets, Bart C

2018-01-01

Early mortality after hip fracture surgery is high and preoperative risk assessment for the individual patient is challenging. A risk model could identify patients in need of more intensive perioperative care, provide insight in the prognosis, and allow for risk adjustment in audits. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery: the Hip fracture Estimator of Mortality Amsterdam (HEMA). Data on 1050 consecutive patients undergoing hip fracture surgery between 2004 and 2010 were retrospectively collected and randomly split into a development cohort (746 patients) and validation cohort (304 patients). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to determine risk factors for the HEMA. Discrimination and calibration were assessed in both cohorts using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and by stratification into low-, medium- and high-risk groups. Nine predictors for 30-day mortality were identified and used in the final model: age ≥85 years, in-hospital fracture, signs of malnutrition, myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, current pneumonia, renal failure, malignancy, and serum urea >9 mmol/L. The HEMA showed good discrimination in the development cohort (AUC = 0.81) and the validation cohort (AUC = 0.79). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated no lack of fit in either cohort (P > 0.05). The HEMA is based on preoperative variables and can be used to predict the risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery for the individual patient. Prognostic Level II. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Incremental value of clinical assessment, supine exercise electrocardiography, and biplane exercise radionuclide ventriculography in the prediction of coronary artery disease in men with chest pain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Currie, P.J.; Kelly, M.J.; Harper, R.W.; Federman, J.; Kalff, V.; Anderson, S.T.; Pitt, A.

1983-01-01

The incremental value of clinical assessment, exercise electrocardiography (ECG) and biplane radionuclide ventriculography (RVG) in the prediction of coronary artery disease (CAD) was assessed in 105 men without myocardial infarction who were undergoing coronary angiography for investigation of chest pain. Independent clinical assessment of chest pain was made prospectively by 2 physicians. Graded supine bicycle exercise testing was symptom-limited. Right anterior oblique ECG-gated first-pass RVG and left anterior oblique ECG-gated equilibrium RVG were performed at rest and exercise. Regional wall motion abnormalities were defined by agreement of 2 of 3 blinded observers. A combined strongly positive exercise ECG response was defined as greater than or equal to 2 mm ST depression or 1.0 to 1.9 mm ST depression with exercise-induced chest pain. A multivariate logistic regression model for the preexercise prediction of CAD was derived from the clinical data and selected 2 variables: chest pain class and cholesterol level. A second model assessed the incremental value of the exercise test in prediction of CAD and found 2 exercise variables that improved prediction: RVG wall motion abnormalities, and a combined strongly positive ECG response. Applying the derived predictive models, 37 of the 58 patients (64%) with preexercise probabilities of 10 to 90% crossed either below the 10% probability threshold or above the 90% threshold and 28 (48%) also moved across the 5 and 95% thresholds. Supine exercise testing with ECG and biplane RVG together, but neither test alone, effectively adds to clinical prediction of CAD. It is most useful in men with atypical chest pain and when the ECG and RVG results are concordant

Predicting mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men by characteristics related to sarcopenia and frailty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kruse, C; Goemaere, S; De Buyser, S

2018-01-01

and bone mineral density scores were the most important predictors. INTRODUCTION: Machine learning principles were used to predict 5-year mortality and 3-year incident severe immobility in a population of older men by frailty and sarcopenia characteristics. METHODS: Using prospective data from 1997 on 264......There is an increasing awareness of sarcopenia in older people. We applied machine learning principles to predict mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men through sarcopenia and frailty characteristics. Mortality could be predicted with good accuracy. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D...... the most important predictors of immobility. Sarcopenia assessed by lean mass estimates was relevant to mortality prediction but not immobility prediction. CONCLUSIONS: Using advanced statistical models and a machine learning approach 5-year mortality can be predicted with good accuracy using a Bayesian...

Prognostic factors for mortality due to pneumonia among adults from different age groups in Singapore and mortality predictions based on PSI and CURB-65.

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Zhang, Zoe Xz; Yong, Yang; Tan, Wan C; Shen, Liang; Ng, Han Seong; Fong, Kok Yong

2017-08-14

Pneumonia is associated with considerable mortality. However, the information on age-specific prognostic factors for death from pneumonia is limited. Patients hospitalised with a diagnosis of pneumonia through the emergency department were stratified into three age groups: 18-64 years; 65-84 years; and ≥ 85 years. Multivariate logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were conducted to evaluate prognostic factors for mortality and the performance of pneumonia severity scoring tools for mortality prediction. There were 1,902 patients (18-64 years: 614 [32.3%]; 65-84 years: 944 [49.6%]; ≥ 85 years: 344 [18.1%]) enrolled. Mortality rates increased with age (18-64 years: 7.3%; 65-84 years: 16.1%; ≥ 85 years: 29.7%; p aged 18-64 years. Male gender, malignancy, congestive heart failure and eight other parameters reflecting acute disease severity were associated with mortality among patients aged 65-84 years. For patients aged ≥ 85 years, altered mental status, tachycardia, blood urea nitrogen, hypoxaemia, arterial pH and pleural effusion were significantly predictive of mortality. Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI) was more sensitive than CURB-65 (Confusion, Uraemia, Respiratory rate ≥ 30 per minute, low Blood pressure, age 65 years or older) for mortality prediction across all age groups. The predictive effect of prognostic factors for mortality varied among patients with pneumonia from the different age groups. PSI performed significantly better than CURB-65 for mortality prediction, but its discriminative power decreased with advancing age.

Value of routine blood tests for prediction of mortality risk in hip fracture patients

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mosfeldt, Mathias; Pedersen, Ole Birger Vesterager; Riis, Troels

2012-01-01

There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission.......There is a 5- to 8-fold increased risk of mortality during the first 3 months after a hip fracture. Several risk factors are known. We studied the predictive value (for mortality) of routine blood tests taken on admission....

Mortality Risk Prediction in Scleroderma-Related Interstitial Lung Disease: The SADL Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Morisset, Julie; Vittinghoff, Eric; Elicker, Brett M; Hu, Xiaowen; Le, Stephanie; Ryu, Jay H; Jones, Kirk D; Haemel, Anna; Golden, Jeffrey A; Boin, Francesco; Ley, Brett; Wolters, Paul J; King, Talmadge E; Collard, Harold R; Lee, Joyce S

2017-11-01

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with scleroderma (Scl). Risk prediction and prognostication in patients with Scl-ILD are challenging because of heterogeneity in the disease course. We aimed to develop a clinical mortality risk prediction model for Scl-ILD. Patients with Scl-ILD were identified from two ongoing longitudinal cohorts: 135 patients at the University of California, San Francisco (derivation cohort) and 90 patients at the Mayo Clinic (validation cohort). Using these two separate cohorts, a mortality risk prediction model was developed and validated by testing every potential candidate Cox model, each including three or four variables of a possible 19 clinical predictors, for time to death. Model discrimination was assessed using the C-index. Three variables were included in the final risk prediction model (SADL): ever smoking history, age, and diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide (% predicted). This continuous model had similar performance in the derivation (C-index, 0.88) and validation (C-index, 0.84) cohorts. We created a point scoring system using the combined cohort (C-index, 0.82) and used it to identify a classification with low, moderate, and high mortality risk at 3 years. The SADL model uses simple, readily accessible clinical variables to predict all-cause mortality in Scl-ILD. Copyright © 2017 American College of Chest Physicians. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mortality risk prediction in burn injury: Comparison of logistic regression with machine learning approaches.

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Stylianou, Neophytos; Akbarov, Artur; Kontopantelis, Evangelos; Buchan, Iain; Dunn, Ken W

2015-08-01

Predicting mortality from burn injury has traditionally employed logistic regression models. Alternative machine learning methods have been introduced in some areas of clinical prediction as the necessary software and computational facilities have become accessible. Here we compare logistic regression and machine learning predictions of mortality from burn. An established logistic mortality model was compared to machine learning methods (artificial neural network, support vector machine, random forests and naïve Bayes) using a population-based (England & Wales) case-cohort registry. Predictive evaluation used: area under the receiver operating characteristic curve; sensitivity; specificity; positive predictive value and Youden's index. All methods had comparable discriminatory abilities, similar sensitivities, specificities and positive predictive values. Although some machine learning methods performed marginally better than logistic regression the differences were seldom statistically significant and clinically insubstantial. Random forests were marginally better for high positive predictive value and reasonable sensitivity. Neural networks yielded slightly better prediction overall. Logistic regression gives an optimal mix of performance and interpretability. The established logistic regression model of burn mortality performs well against more complex alternatives. Clinical prediction with a small set of strong, stable, independent predictors is unlikely to gain much from machine learning outside specialist research contexts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and ISBI. All rights reserved.

Discrimination ability of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to predict mortality in community-dwelling older people

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kusumastuti, Sasmita; Gerds, Thomas Alexander; Lund, Rikke

2017-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions in community-dwelling older people and whether it changes with increasing age. PARTICIPANTS: 36,751 community-dwelling subjects aged 50-100 from the longitudinal Survey of Health......, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe. METHODS: Mortality risk associated with Comorbidity Index, Frailty Index, Frailty Phenotype, and subjective health was analysed using Cox regression. The extent to which health indicators modified individual mortality risk predictions was examined and the added ability......, and household income. CONCLUSION: Calendar age encompasses most of the discrimination ability to predict mortality. The added value of comorbidity, frailty, and subjective health to mortality predictions decreases with increasing age....

Vitamin D status predicts 30 day mortality in hospitalised cats.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helen Titmarsh

Full Text Available Vitamin D insufficiency, defined as low serum concentrations of the major circulating form of vitamin D, 25 hydroxyvitamin D (25(OHD, has been associated with the development of numerous infectious, inflammatory, and neoplastic disorders in humans. In addition, vitamin D insufficiency has been found to be predictive of mortality for many disorders. However, interpretation of human studies is difficult since vitamin D status is influenced by many factors, including diet, season, latitude, and exposure to UV radiation. In contrast, domesticated cats do not produce vitamin D cutaneously, and most cats are fed a commercial diet containing a relatively standard amount of vitamin D. Consequently, domesticated cats are an attractive model system in which to examine the relationship between serum 25(OHD and health outcomes. The hypothesis of this study was that vitamin D status would predict short term, all-cause mortality in domesticated cats. Serum concentrations of 25(OHD, together with a wide range of other clinical, hematological, and biochemical parameters, were measured in 99 consecutively hospitalised cats. Cats which died within 30 days of initial assessment had significantly lower serum 25(OHD concentrations than cats which survived. In a linear regression model including 12 clinical variables, serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile was significantly predictive of mortality. The odds ratio of mortality within 30 days was 8.27 (95% confidence interval 2.54-31.52 for cats with a serum 25(OHD concentration in the lower tertile. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that low serum 25(OHD concentration status is an independent predictor of short term mortality in cats.

Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM_1_0) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM_1_0-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM_1_0-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM_1_0 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM_1_0-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well. - Highlights: • The heterogeneity was examined in PM_1_0-mortality associations among Chinese cities. • Temperature, PM_1_0 and green space could best explain the heterogeneity. • PM_1_0-mortality associations were predicted for 73 Chinese cities. - This study provides a practical way to assess exposure-response associations and evaluate the burden of mortality in areas with insufficient data.

Biomarkers improve mortality prediction by prognostic scales in community-acquired pneumonia.

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Menéndez, R; Martínez, R; Reyes, S; Mensa, J; Filella, X; Marcos, M A; Martínez, A; Esquinas, C; Ramirez, P; Torres, A

2009-07-01

Prognostic scales provide a useful tool to predict mortality in community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). However, the inflammatory response of the host, crucial in resolution and outcome, is not included in the prognostic scales. The aim of this study was to investigate whether information about the initial inflammatory cytokine profile and markers increases the accuracy of prognostic scales to predict 30-day mortality. To this aim, a prospective cohort study in two tertiary care hospitals was designed. Procalcitonin (PCT), C-reactive protein (CRP) and the systemic cytokines tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNFalpha) and interleukins IL6, IL8 and IL10 were measured at admission. Initial severity was assessed by PSI (Pneumonia Severity Index), CURB65 (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) and CRB65 (Confusion, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, > or = 65 years of age) scales. A total of 453 hospitalised CAP patients were included. The 36 patients who died (7.8%) had significantly increased levels of IL6, IL8, PCT and CRP. In regression logistic analyses, high levels of CRP and IL6 showed an independent predictive value for predicting 30-day mortality, after adjustment for prognostic scales. Adding CRP to PSI significantly increased the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) from 0.80 to 0.85, that of CURB65 from 0.82 to 0.85 and that of CRB65 from 0.79 to 0.85. Adding IL6 or PCT values to CRP did not significantly increase the AUC of any scale. When using two scales (PSI and CURB65/CRB65) and CRP simultaneously the AUC was 0.88. Adding CRP levels to PSI, CURB65 and CRB65 scales improves the 30-day mortality prediction. The highest predictive value is reached with a combination of two scales and CRP. Further validation of that improvement is needed.

Periodontitis in older Swedish individuals fails to predict mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Renvert, Stefan; Wallin-Bengtsson, Viveca; Berglund, Johan; Persson, Rutger G

2015-03-01

This study aims to assess mortality risk and its association to health aspects in dentate individuals 60 years of age and older. Medical and periodontal data from 870 dentate individuals (age range 60–96) participating in the Swedish National Study on Aging and Care in Blekinge (SNACBlekinge)with survival statistics over 6 years were studied. During 6 years of follow-up, 42/474 of the individuals(8.9 %), who at baseline were between age 60 and 75, and 134/396 individuals of the individuals (33.9 %), who at baseline were ≥75 years, died. Surviving dentate individuals had more teeth (mean 19.3, S.D.±7.9) than those who died (mean 15.9,S.D.±7.3; mean diff 3,3; S.E. mean diff 0.7; 95 % CI 2.0, 4.6;p=0.001). A self-reported history of high blood pressure (F=15.0, pheart failure (F=24.5, pheart disease, diabetes, any form of cancer,or periodontitis failed to predict mortality. A self-reported history of angina pectoris, chronic heart failure, elevated serum HbA1c, and few remaining teeth were associated with mortality risk. A professional diagnosis of cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer, or periodontitis was not predictive of mortality. Self-health reports are important to observe in the assessment of disease and survival in older individual.

Maximal exercise electrocardiographic responses and coronary heart disease mortality among men with metabolic syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Lyerly, G William; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S; Lavie, Carl J; Hand, Gregory A; Blair, Steven N

2010-03-01

To examine the association between abnormal exercise electrocardiographic (E-ECG) test results and mortality (all-cause and that resulting from coronary heart disease [CHD] or cardiovascular disease [CVD]) in a large population of asymptomatic men with metabolic syndrome (MetS). A total of 9191 men (mean age, 46.9 years) met the criteria of having MetS. All completed a maximal E-ECG treadmill test (May 14, 1979, through April 9, 2001) and were without a previous CVD event or diabetes at baseline. Main outcomes were all-cause mortality, mortality due to CHD, and mortality due to CVD. Cox regression analysis was used to quantify the mortality risk according to E-ECG responses. During a follow-up of 14 years, 633 deaths (242 CVD and 150 CHD) were identified. Mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) across E-ECG responses were the following: for all-cause mortality: HR, 1.36; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09-1.70 for equivocal responses and HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.12-1.77 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001); for mortality due to CVD: HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.88-1.88 for equivocal responses and HR, 2.04; 95% CI, 1.46-2.84 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001); and for mortality due to CHD: HR, 1.62; 95% CI, 1.02-2.56 for equivocal responses and HR, 2.45; 95% CI, 1.62-3.69 for abnormal responses (P(trend)<.001). A positive gradient for CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality rates across E-ECG categories within 3, 4, or 5 MetS components was observed (P<.001 for all). Among men with MetS, an abnormal E-ECG response was associated with higher risk of all-cause, CVD, and CHD mortality. These findings underscore the importance of E-ECG tests to identify men with MetS who are at risk of dying.

Exercise training raises daily activity stronger than predicted from exercise capacity in patients with COPD.

Science.gov (United States)

Behnke, Michaela; Wewel, Alexandra R; Kirsten, Detlef; Jörres, Rudolf A; Magnussen, Helgo

2005-06-01

The 6-min walking (6MWD) and 6-min treadmill distance (6MTD) are often used as measures of exercise performance in patients with COPD. The aim of our study was to assess their relationship to daily activity in the course of an exercise training program. Eighty-eight patients with stable COPD (71m/17f; mean +/- SD age, 60 +/-8 year; FEV1, 43+/-14% pred) were recruited, 66 of whom performed a hospital-based 10-day walking training, whereas 22 were treated as control. On day 16MTD, and on days 8 and 10, 6MTD and 6MWD were determined. In addition, patients used an accelerometer (TriTrac-R3D) to record 24 h-activity, whereby training sessions were excluded. In both groups there was a linear relationship (r > or = 0.84 and P daily activity did not markedly vary with exercise capacity under baseline conditions. Participation in a training program increased activity significantly stronger than predicted from the gain in exercise capacity. This underlines the importance of non-physiological, patient-centered factors associated with training in COPD.

Hepatic Venous Pressure Gradient Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Patients with Decompensated Cirrhosis

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae Yeob; Lee, Jae Gon; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Kim, Sun Min; Kim, Jinoo; Jeong, Woo Kyoung

2016-01-01

Purpose The present study aimed to investigate the role of hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG) for prediction of long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis. Materials and Methods Clinical data from 97 non-critically-ill cirrhotic patients with HVPG measurements were retrospectively and consecutively collected between 2009 and 2012. Patients were classified according to clinical stages and presence of ascites. The prognostic accuracy of HVPG for death, survival curves, and hazard ratios were analyzed. Results During a median follow-up of 24 (interquartile range, 13-36) months, 22 patients (22.7%) died. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curves of HVPG for predicting 1-year, 2-year, and overall mortality were 0.801, 0.737, and 0.687, respectively (all p17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.015). In the ascites group, the mortality rates at 1 and 2 years were 3.9% and 17.6% with HVPG ≤17 mm Hg and 17.5% and 35.2% with HVPG >17 mm Hg, respectively (p=0.044). Regarding the risk factors for mortality, both HVPG and model for end-stage liver disease were positively related with long-term mortality in all patients. Particularly, for the patients with ascites, both prothrombin time and HVPG were independent risk factors for predicting poor outcomes. Conclusion HVPG is useful for predicting the long-term mortality in patients with decompensated cirrhosis, especially in the presence of ascites. PMID:26632394

Risk prediction models for mortality in patients with ventilator-associated pneumonia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsson, Johan E; Itenov, Theis Skovsgaard; Bestle, Morten Heiberg

2017-01-01

the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC). RESULTS: We identified 19 articles studying 7 different models' ability to predict mortality in VAP patients. The models were Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II (9 studies, n = 1398); Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (4 studies, n...... = 303); "Immunodeficiency, Blood pressure, Multilobular infiltrates on chest radiograph, Platelets and hospitalization 10 days before onset of VAP" (3 studies, n = 406); "VAP Predisposition, Insult Response and Organ dysfunction" (2 studies, n = 589); Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (7 studies, n......: The PubMed and EMBASE were searched in February 2016. We included studies in English that evaluated models' ability to predict the risk of mortality in patients with VAP. The reported mortality with the longest follow-up was used in the meta-analysis. Prognostic accuracy was measured with the area under...

Prediction of Mortality with A Body Shape Index in Young Asians: Comparison with Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Da-Young; Lee, Mi-Yeon; Sung, Ki-Chul

2018-06-01

This paper investigated the impact of A Body Shape Index (ABSI) on the risk of all-cause mortality compared with the impact of waist circumference (WC) and body mass index (BMI). This paper reviewed data of 213,569 Korean adults who participated in health checkups between 2002 and 2012 at Kangbuk Samsung Hospital in Seoul, Korea. A multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis was performed on the BMI, WC, and ABSI z score continuous variables as well as quintiles. During 1,168,668.7 person-years, 1,107 deaths occurred. As continuous variables, a significant positive relationship with the risk of all-cause death was found only in ABSI z scores after adjustment for age, sex, current smoking, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, presence of diabetes or hypertension, and history of cardiovascular diseases. In Cox analysis of quintiles, quintile 5 of the ABSI z score showed significantly increased hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality risk (HR [95% CI] was 1.32 [1.05-1.66]), whereas the risk for all-cause mortality, on the other hand, decreased in quintiles 3 through 5 of BMI and WC compared with their first quintiles after adjusting for several confounders. This study showed that the predictive value of ABSI for mortality risk was strong for a sample of young Asian participants and that its usefulness was better than BMI or WC. © 2018 The Obesity Society.

Using bench press load to predict upper body exercise loads in physically active individuals.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Del P; Ngo, Kwan-Lung; Tse, Michael A; Smith, Andrew W

2013-01-01

This study investigated whether loads for assistance exercises of the upper body can be predicted from the loads of the bench press exercise. Twenty-nine physically active collegiate students (age: 22.6 ± 2.5; weight training experience: 2.9 ± 2.1 years; estimated 1RM bench press: 54.31 ± 14.60 kg; 1RM: body weight ratio: 0.80 ± 0.22; BMI: 22.7 ± 2.1 kg·m(-2)) were recruited. The 6RM loads for bench press, barbell bicep curl, overhead dumbbell triceps extension, hammer curl and dumbbell shoulder press were measured. Test-retest reliability for the 5 exercises as determined by Pearson product moment correlation coefficient was very high to nearly perfect (0.82-0.98, p bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises (r ranged from 0.80 to 0.93, p bench press load was a significant (R(2) range from 0.64 to 0.86, p Bench press load (0.28) + 6.30 kg, (b) Barbell biceps curl = Bench press load (0.33) + 6.20 kg, (c) Overhead triceps extension = Bench press load (0.33) - 0.60 kg, and (d) Dumbbell shoulder press = Bench press load (0.42) + 5.84 kg. The difference between the actual load and the predicted load using the four equations ranged between 6.52% and 8.54%, such difference was not significant. Fitness professionals can use the 6RM bench press load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises. Key pointsThe bench press load was significantly correlated with the loads of the 4 assistance exercises.No significant differences were found between the actual load and the predicted load in the four equations.6RM bench press load can be a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for upper body assistance exercises.

Predictability of psychic outcome for exercise training and exercise training including relaxation therapy after myocardial infarction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

H.J. Duivenvoorden (Hugo); J. van Dixhoorn (J.)

1991-01-01

markdownabstractAbstract Predictability of the psychic outcome for two cardiac rehabilitation programmes was investigated in 119 myocardial infarction patients. They were randomly assigned to either a five-week daily exercise training or to an identical training in combination with six sessions

Performance of Surgical Risk Scores to Predict Mortality after Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Sinnott Silva

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background: Predicting mortality in patients undergoing transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI remains a challenge. Objectives: To evaluate the performance of 5 risk scores for cardiac surgery in predicting the 30-day mortality among patients of the Brazilian Registry of TAVI. Methods: The Brazilian Multicenter Registry prospectively enrolled 418 patients undergoing TAVI in 18 centers between 2008 and 2013. The 30-day mortality risk was calculated using the following surgical scores: the logistic EuroSCORE I (ESI, EuroSCORE II (ESII, Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS score, Ambler score (AS and Guaragna score (GS. The performance of the risk scores was evaluated in terms of their calibration (Hosmer–Lemeshow test and discrimination [area under the receiver–operating characteristic curve (AUC]. Results: The mean age was 81.5 ± 7.7 years. The CoreValve (Medtronic was used in 86.1% of the cohort, and the transfemoral approach was used in 96.2%. The observed 30-day mortality was 9.1%. The 30-day mortality predicted by the scores was as follows: ESI, 20.2 ± 13.8%; ESII, 6.5 ± 13.8%; STS score, 14.7 ± 4.4%; AS, 7.0 ± 3.8%; GS, 17.3 ± 10.8%. Using AUC, none of the tested scores could accurately predict the 30-day mortality. AUC for the scores was as follows: 0.58 [95% confidence interval (CI: 0.49 to 0.68, p = 0.09] for ESI; 0.54 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.64, p = 0.42 for ESII; 0.57 (95% CI: 0.47 to 0.67, p = 0.16 for AS; 0.48 (95% IC: 0.38 to 0.57, p = 0.68 for STS score; and 0.52 (95% CI: 0.42 to 0.62, p = 0.64 for GS. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test indicated acceptable calibration for all scores (p > 0.05. Conclusions: In this real world Brazilian registry, the surgical risk scores were inaccurate in predicting mortality after TAVI. Risk models specifically developed for TAVI are required.

Predicting mortality for five California conifers following wildfire

Science.gov (United States)

Sharon M. Hood; Sheri L. Smith; Daniel R. Cluck

2010-01-01

Fire injury was characterized and survival monitored for 5677 trees >25cm DBH from five wildfires in California that occurred between 2000 and 2004. Logistic regression models for predicting the probability of mortality 5-years after fire were developed for incense cedar (Calocedrus decurrens (Torr.) Florin), white fir (Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. ex...

Cognitive impairment as assessed by a short form of MMSE was predictive of mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schultz-Larsen, Kirsten; Rahmanfard, Naghmeh; Kreiner, Svend

2008-01-01

OBJECTIVE: This study explores the association between cognitive impairment and mortality in late senescence. A specific purpose was to validate the ability of a short form of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in predicting mortality. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: The cognition-mortality link,...... chronic diseases and mortality. A short, valid MMSE subscale, which was a powerful predictor of mortality especially among men, is attractive for research and clinical practice......., as assessed by the original MMSE and D-MMSE (a subscale associated to dementia) was estimated on a community sample of 1,111 older people using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: Impaired cognitive function as assessed by both the original MMSE and D-MMSE predicted mortality in older men and women over...... long intervals. The association persisted after controlling for sociodemographic variables, Body Mass Index, mobility, and comorbidity and was unaffected by self-reported specific chronic diseases in both men and women. In addition, disease related risk of mortality was substantially reduced...

Predictive indications of operation and mortality following renal trauma

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chia-Shen Yang

2012-01-01

Conclusion: In conclusion, ISS ≥ 16 and RIS ≥ 4 are predictive factors for necessitating an operation, and higher injury severity (ISS ≥ 16 and lower consciousness level (GCS < 8 scores are significantly associated with mortality after renal trauma.

Applications of Machine learning in Prediction of Breast Cancer Incidence and Mortality

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helal, N.; Sarwat, E.

2012-01-01

Breast cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer deaths for the female population in both developed and developing countries. In this work we have used the baseline descriptive data about the incidence (new cancer cases) of in situ breast cancer among Wisconsin females. The documented data were from the most recent 12-years period for which data are available. Wiscons in cancer incidence and mortality (deaths due to cancer) that occurred were also considered in this work. Artificial Neural network (ANN) have been successfully applied to problems in the prediction of the number of new cancer cases and mortality. Using artificial intelligence (AI) in this study, the numbers of new cancer cases and mortality that may occur are predicted.

Mortality, morbidity and refractoriness prediction in status epilepticus: Comparison of STESS and EMSE scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Giovannini, Giada; Monti, Giulia; Tondelli, Manuela; Marudi, Andrea; Valzania, Franco; Leitinger, Markus; Trinka, Eugen; Meletti, Stefano

2017-03-01

Status epilepticus (SE) is a neurological emergency, characterized by high short-term morbidity and mortality. We evaluated and compared two scores that have been developed to evaluate status epilepticus prognosis: STESS (Status Epilepticus Severity Score) and EMSE (Epidemiology based Mortality score in Status Epilepticus). A prospective observational study was performed on consecutive patients with SE admitted between September 2013 and August 2015. Demographics, clinical variables, STESS-3 and -4, and EMSE-64 scores were calculated for each patient at baseline. SE drug response, 30-day mortality and morbidity were the outcomes measure. 162 episodes of SE were observed: 69% had a STESS ≥3; 34% had a STESS ≥4; 51% patients had an EMSE ≥64. The 30-days mortality was 31.5%: EMSE-64 showed greater negative predictive value (NPV) (97.5%), positive predictive value (PPV) (59.8%) and accuracy in the prediction of death than STESS-3 and STESS-4 (pstatus epilepticus proved refractory to non-anaesthetic treatment. All three scales showed a high NPV (EMSE-64: 87.3%; STESS-4: 89.4%; STESS-3: 87.5%) but a low PPV (EMSE-64: 40.9%; STESS-4: 52.9%; STESS-3: 32%) for the prediction of refractoriness to first and second line drugs. This means that accuracy for the prediction of refractoriness was equally poor for all scales. EMSE-64 appears superior to STESS-3 and STESS-4 in the prediction of 30-days mortality and morbidity. All scales showed poor accuracy in the prediction of response to first and second line antiepileptic drugs. At present, there are no reliable scores capable of predicting treatment responsiveness. Copyright © 2017 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting exposure-response associations of ambient particulate matter with mortality in 73 Chinese cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Chen, Renjie; Kan, Haidong; Tong, Shilu

2016-01-01

Estimating the burden of mortality associated with particulates requires knowledge of exposure-response associations. However, the evidence on exposure-response associations is limited in many cities, especially in developing countries. In this study, we predicted associations of particulates smaller than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) with mortality in 73 Chinese cities. The meta-regression model was used to test and quantify which city-specific characteristics contributed significantly to the heterogeneity of PM10-mortality associations for 16 Chinese cities. Then, those city-specific characteristics with statistically significant regression coefficients were treated as independent variables to build multivariate meta-regression models. The model with the best fitness was used to predict PM10-mortality associations in 73 Chinese cities in 2010. Mean temperature, PM10 concentration and green space per capita could best explain the heterogeneity in PM10-mortality associations. Based on city-specific characteristics, we were able to develop multivariate meta-regression models to predict associations between air pollutants and health outcomes reasonably well. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does inhalation injury predict mortality in burns patients or require redefinition?

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Youngmin Kim

Full Text Available Inhalation injury is known to be an important factor in predicting mortality in burns patients. However, the diagnosis is complicated by the heterogeneous presentation and inability to determine the severity of inhalation injury. The purpose of this study was to identify clinical features of inhalation injury that affect mortality and the values that could predict the outcome more precisely in burns patients with inhalation injury. This retrospective observational study included 676 burns patients who were over 18 years of age and hospitalized in the Burns Intensive Care Unit between January 2012 and December 2015. We analyzed variables that are already known to be prognostic factors (age, percentage of total body surface area (%TBSA burned, and inhalation injury and factors associated with inhalation injury (carboxyhemoglobin and PaO2/FiO2 [PF] ratio by univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Age group (odds ratio [OR] 1.069, p<0.001, %TBSA burned (OR 1.100, p<0.001, and mechanical ventilation (OR 3.774, p<0.001 were identified to be significant predictive factors. The findings for presence of inhalation injury, PF ratio, and carboxyhemoglobin were not statistically significant in multivariate logistic regression. Being in the upper inhalation group, the lower inhalation group, and having a PF ratio <100 were identified to be significant predictors only in univariate logistic regression analysis (OR 4.438, p<0.001; OR 2.379, p<0.001; and OR 2.765, p<0.001, respectively. History and physical findings are not appropriate for diagnosis of inhalation injury and do not predict mortality. Mechanical ventilation should be recognized as a risk factor for mortality in burns patients with inhalation injury.

Predicting of mortality in patients with intracrani al hemorrhage: A review article

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Farzad Rahmani

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Stroke is one of the important and common diseases, which can lead to permanent disability or even death to people. Intracranial hemorrhage (ICH is a type of stroke that is associated with high mortality despite improved diagnostic and treatment methods, as well as the mortality rate remains high. Methods: In the present review article, reputable internet databases since 2000 were analyzed. Studies that discussed the predicting mortality of ICH were included in this review. Results: For predicting the mortality rates in patients with primary ICH, physicians use several methods such as level of consciousness, bleeding volume and multiple rating systems. In this review, we introduce three scoring system of ICH in patients with ICH. Conclusion: Perhaps its cut-off point of these three score systems were different in different societies according to conditions and facilities therefore it is needed to review these scores and record their results in different societies.

Self-determined to exercise? Leisure-time exercise behavior, exercise motivation, and exercise dependence in youth.

Science.gov (United States)

Symons Downs, Danielle; Savage, Jennifer S; DiNallo, Jennifer M

2013-02-01

Scant research has examined the determinants of primary exercise dependence symptoms in youth. Study purposes were to examine sex differences across leisure-time exercise behavior, motivation, and primary exercise dependence symptoms in youth and the extent to which exercise behavior and motivation predicted exercise dependence within the Self-Determination Theory framework. Adolescents (N = 805; mean age = 15 years; 46% girls) completed measures of exercise behavior, motivation, and exercise dependence in health/PE classes. One-way ANOVA revealed boys scored higher than girls on leisure-time exercise behavior, exercise dependence symptoms, and most of the exercise motivation subscales. Hierarchical regression analyses indicated a) sex, exercise behavior, motivation, and their interaction terms explained 39% of the variance in primary exercise dependence; b) Integrated Regulation and Introjected Regulation were important determinants of exercise dependence; and c) sex moderated the contributions of External Regulation for predicting exercise dependence such that boys in the high and low external regulation groups had higher symptoms than girls in the high and low external regulation groups. These preliminary findings support the controlled dimensions of Integrated Regulation (boys, girls), Introjected Regulation (boys, girls), and External Regulation (boys only) are important determinants of primary exercise dependence symptoms.

Probabilistic fuzzy prediction of mortality in intensive care units

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fialho, A.T.S.; Kaymak, U.; Almeida, R.J.; Cismondi, F.; Vieira, S.M.; Reti, S.R.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Finkelstein, S.N.; Bouchon-Meunier, B.

2012-01-01

In the present work, we propose the application of probabilistic fuzzy systems (PFS) to model the prediction of mortality in septic shock patients. This technique is characterized by the combination of the linguistic description of the system with the statistical properties of data. Preliminary

Predictive factors for mortality in Fournier' gangrene: a series of 59 cases.

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García Marín, Andrés; Turégano Fuentes, Fernando; Cuadrado Ayuso, Marta; Andueza Lillo, Juan Antonio; Cano Ballesteros, Juan Carlos; Pérez López, Mercedes

2015-01-01

Fournier's gangrene (FG) is the necrotizing fasciitis of the perineum and genital area and presents a high mortality rate. The aim was to assess prognostic factors for mortality, create a new mortality predictive scale and compare it with previously published scales in patients diagnosed with FG in our Emergency Department. Retrospective analysis study between 1998 and 2012. Of the 59 patients, 44 survived (74%) (S) and 15 died (26%) (D). Significant differences were found in peripheral vasculopathy (S 5 [11%]; D 6 [40%]; P=.023), hemoglobin (S 13; D 11; P=.014), hematocrit (S 37; D 31.4; P=.009), white blood cells (S 17,400; D 23,800; P=.023), serum urea (S 58; D 102; PFournier's gangrene severity index score (FGSIS) (S 4; D 7; P=.002) and Uludag Fournier's Gangrene Severity Index (UFGSI) (S 9; D 13; P=.004). Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, serum potassium and severe sepsis criteria, and a model was created with an area under the ROC curve of 0.850 (0.760-0.973), higher than FGSIS (0.746 [0.601-0.981]) and UFGSI (0.760 [0.617-0.904]). FG showed a high mortality rate. Independent predictive factors were peripheral vasculopathy, potassium and severe sepsis criteria creating a predictive model that performed better than those previously described. Copyright © 2014 AEC. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Cardiac Troponin Elevation Predicts Mortality in Patients Undergoing Orthotopic Liver Transplantation

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David Snipelisky

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction. While patients undergoing orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT have high cardiovascular event rates, preoperative risk stratification may not necessarily predict those susceptible patients. Troponin T (TnT may help predict patients at risk for cardiovascular complications. Methods. Consecutive patients undergoing OLT at Mayo Clinic in Florida between 1998 and 2010 who had TnT obtained within 10 days following surgery were included. Three groups were compared based on TnT level: (1 normal (TnT ≤0.01 ng/mL, (2 intermediate (TnT 0.02–0.11 ng/mL, and (3 elevated (TnT >0.11 ng/mL. Overall and cardiovascular mortality was assessed. Results. Of the 78 patients included, there was no difference in age, gender, severity of liver disease, and echocardiographic findings. Patients in the normal and intermediate TnT groups had a lower overall mortality rate (14.3% and 0%, resp. when compared with those with elevated TnT (50%; P=0.001. Patients in the elevated TnT group had a cardiovascular mortality rate of 37.5% compared with 1.4% in the other groups combined (P<0.01. The elevated TnT group had a much higher mortality rate when compared with those in the intermediate group (P<0.0001. Conclusion. TnT may accurately help risk stratify patients in the early postoperative setting to better predict cardiovascular complications.

Predicting the probability of mortality of gastric cancer patients using decision tree.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohammadzadeh, F; Noorkojuri, H; Pourhoseingholi, M A; Saadat, S; Baghestani, A R

2015-06-01

Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer worldwide. This reason motivated us to investigate and introduce gastric cancer risk factors utilizing statistical methods. The aim of this study was to identify the most important factors influencing the mortality of patients who suffer from gastric cancer disease and to introduce a classification approach according to decision tree model for predicting the probability of mortality from this disease. Data on 216 patients with gastric cancer, who were registered in Taleghani hospital in Tehran,Iran, were analyzed. At first, patients were divided into two groups: the dead and alive. Then, to fit decision tree model to our data, we randomly selected 20% of dataset to the test sample and remaining dataset considered as the training sample. Finally, the validity of the model examined with sensitivity, specificity, diagnosis accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The CART version 6.0 and SPSS version 19.0 softwares were used for the analysis of the data. Diabetes, ethnicity, tobacco, tumor size, surgery, pathologic stage, age at diagnosis, exposure to chemical weapons and alcohol consumption were determined as effective factors on mortality of gastric cancer. The sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of decision tree were 0.72, 0.75 and 0.74 respectively. The indices of sensitivity, specificity and accuracy represented that the decision tree model has acceptable accuracy to prediction the probability of mortality in gastric cancer patients. So a simple decision tree consisted of factors affecting on mortality of gastric cancer may help clinicians as a reliable and practical tool to predict the probability of mortality in these patients.

Penalized regression techniques for prediction: a case study for predicting tree mortality using remotely sensed vegetation indices

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lazaridis, D.C.; Verbesselt, J.; Robinson, A.P.

2011-01-01

Constructing models can be complicated when the available fitting data are highly correlated and of high dimension. However, the complications depend on whether the goal is prediction instead of estimation. We focus on predicting tree mortality (measured as the number of dead trees) from change

Diagnosis trajectories of prior multi-morbidity predict sepsis mortality

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beck, Mette Kristina; Jensen, Anders Boeck; Nielsen, Annelaura Bach

2016-01-01

Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease histo...... of disease history to scoring based on within-admission clinical measurements emphasizing the value of long term data in novel patient scores that combine the two types of data.......Sepsis affects millions of people every year, many of whom will die. In contrast to current survival prediction models for sepsis patients that primarily are based on data from within-admission clinical measurements (e.g. vital parameters and blood values), we aim for using the full disease history...... recurrent trajectories of time-ordered co-morbidities had significantly increased sepsis mortality compared to those who did not follow a trajectory. We identified trajectories which significantly altered sepsis mortality, and found three major starting points in a combined temporal sepsis network: Alcohol...

Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and elevated serum creatinine predict mortality in geriatric patients with fever.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Min-Hsien; Chu, Feng-Yuan; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Lin, Hung-Jung; Chen, Jiann-Hwa; Guo, How-Ran; Vong, Si-Chon; Su, Shih-Bin; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

2015-07-01

The geriatric population (aged ≥65 years) accounts for 12-24% of all emergency department (ED) visits. Of them, 10% have a fever, 70-90% will be admitted and 7-10% of will die within a month. Therefore, mortality prediction and appropriate disposition after ED treatment are of great concern for geriatric patients with fever. We tried to identify independent mortality predictors of geriatric patients with fever, and combine these predictors to predict their mortality. We enrolled consecutive geriatric patients visiting the ED between 1 June and 21 July 2010 with the following criteria of fever: a tympanic temperature ≥37.2°C or a baseline temperature elevated ≥1.3°C. We used 30-day mortality as the primary end-point. A total of 330 patients were enrolled. Hypotension, bedridden, leukocytosis, thrombocytopenia and serum creatinine >2 mg/dL, but not age, were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) ranged from 18.2% to 90.9%, 34.7% to 100%, 9.0% to 100% and 94.5% to 98.2%, respectively, depending on how many predictors there were. The 30-day mortality increased with the number of independent mortality predictors. With at least four predictors, 100% of the patients died within 30 days. With none of the predictors, just 1.8% died. These findings might help physicians make decisions about geriatric patients with fever. © 2014 Japan Geriatrics Society.

Simple exercise test for the prediction of relative heat tolerance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kenney, W.L.; Lewis, D.A.; Anderson, R.K.; Kamon, E.

1986-01-01

A medical screening exercise test is presented which accurately predicts relative heat tolerance during work in very hot environments. The test consisted of 15-20 min of exercise at a standard absolute intensity of about 600 kcal/hr (140W) with the subject wearing a vapor-barrier suit. Five minutes after the subject exercised, recovery heart rate was measured. When this heart rate is used, a physiological limit (+/- approximately 5 min) can be predicted with 95% confidence for the most intense work-heat conditions found in nuclear power stations. In addition, site health and safety personnel can establish qualification criteria for work on hot jobs, based on the test results. The test as developed can be performed in an office environment with the use of a minimum of equipment by personnel with minimal expertise and training. Total maximal test duration is about 20-25 min per person and only heart rate need be monitored (simple pulse palpation will suffice). Test modality is adaptable to any ergometer, the most readily available and least expensive of which is bench-stepping. It is recommended that this test be available for use for those persons who, based upon routine medical examination or past history, are suspected of being relatively heat intolerant

Assessing cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure to predict incident hypertension in a general population.

Science.gov (United States)

Lorbeer, Roberto; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Gläser, Sven; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Dörr, Marcus

2015-07-01

Cutoff values for increased exercise blood pressure (BP) are not established in hypertension guidelines. The aim of the study was to assess optimal cutoff values for increased exercise BP to predict incident hypertension. Data of 661 normotensive participants (386 women) aged 25-77 years from the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP-1) with a 5-year follow-up were used. Exercise BP was measured at a submaximal level of 100 W and at maximum level of a symptom-limited cycle ergometry test. Cutoff values for increased exercise BP were defined at the maximum sum of sensitivity and specificity for the prediction of incident hypertension. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated to investigate whether increased exercise BP adds predictive value for incident hypertension beyond established cardiovascular risk factors. In men, values of 160  mmHg (100  W level; AUC = 0.7837; NRI = 0.534, P AUC = 0.7677; NRI = 0.340, P = 0.003) were detected as optimal cutoff values for the definition of increased exercise SBP. A value of 190  mmHg (AUC = 0.8347; NRI = 0.519, P < 0.001) showed relevance for the definition of increased exercise SBP in women at the maximum level. According to our analyses, 190 and 210  mmHg are clinically relevant cutoff values for increased exercise SBP at the maximum exercise level of cycle ergometry test for women and men, respectively. In addition, for men, our analyses provided a cutoff value of 160  mmHg for increased exercise SBP at the 100  W level.

The Impact of EuroSCORE II Risk Factors on Prediction of Long-Term Mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Dang, Nicholas C; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-10-01

The European System for Cardiac Operation Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) II has not been tested yet for predicting long-term mortality. This study was undertaken to evaluate the relationship between EuroSCORE II and long-term mortality and to develop a new algorithm based on EuroSCORE II factors to predict long-term survival after cardiac surgery. Complete data on 10,033 patients who underwent major cardiac surgery during a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Mortality at follow-up was analyzed with time-to-event analysis. The Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival at 1 and 5 were, respectively, 95.0% ± 0.2% and 84.7% ± 0.4%. Both discrimination and calibration of EuroSCORE II decreased in the prediction of 1-year and 5-year mortality. Nonetheless, EuroSCORE II was confirmed to be an independent predictor of long-term mortality with a nonlinear trend. Several EuroSCORE II variables were independent risk factors for long-term mortality in a regression model, most of all very low ejection fraction (less than 20%), salvage operation, and dialysis. In the final model, isolated mitral valve surgery and isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery were associated with improved long-term survival. The EuroSCORE II cannot be considered a direct estimator of long-term risk of death, as its performance fades for mortality at follow-up longer than 30 days. Nonetheless, it is nonlinearly associated with long-term mortality, and most of its variables are risk factors for long-term mortality. Hence, they can be used in a different algorithm to stratify the risk of long-term mortality after surgery. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The evaluation of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality in preterm newborns

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Homa Babaei

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Background: The survival rate of premature newborns depends on gestational age, birth weight and condition when they are hospitalized. Different scoring systems to predict mortality in newborns has been designed. The purpose of this study was to evaluate value of CRIB II scoring system in predicting mortality rate of infants with birth weights less than 1500 grams. Material and Methods: In this 8 month cross - sectional study (September 2010 to April 2010 which was conducted in the NICU of Imam Reza hospital in Kermanshah, preterm newborns with birth weight less than 1500 gr and gestational age less than 32 weeks who were admitted within 12 hours after birth in the NICU ,were evaluated based on CRIB II scoring system . Results: 50 neonates out of 1360 (36.8% survived and 86 neonates(63.2% died. Average CRIB II score in newborn survived was 5.8±2.9 and in infants died was 9.8±2.9 (p <0.0001. Based on the AUC, the CRIB II score could predict about 0.85 (CI: 0.77-0.92 of mortality. Also based on the ROC curve cut-off point for scoring CRIB II, was 6.5. Conclusion: Our study showed that CRIB II has a high value( about %85 in predicting mortality in newborns with birth weights less than 1500 grams.

The role of descriptive norm within the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean Americans' exercise behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Hyo

2011-08-01

There are few studies investigating psychosocial mechanisms in Korean Americans' exercise behavior. The present study tested the usefulness of the theory of planned behavior in predicting Korean American's exercise behavior and whether the descriptive norm (i.e., perceptions of what others do) improved the predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior. Using a retrospective design and self-report measures, web-survey responses from 198 Korean-American adults were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses. The theory of planned behavior constructs accounted for 31% of exercise behavior and 43% of exercise intention. Intention and perceived behavioral control were significant predictors of exercise behavior. Although the descriptive norm did not augment the theory of planned behavior, all original constructs--attitude, injunctive norm (a narrow definition of subjective norm), and perceived behavioral control--statistically significantly predicted leisure-time physical activity intention. Future studies should consider random sampling, prospective design, and objective measures of physical activity.

Various scoring systems for predicting mortality in Intensive Care Unit

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2015-12-07

Dec 7, 2015 ... Mortality rate was higher in patients admitted from wards other than surgery ... evaluate the predictability of various severity of illness scores, and ..... Livingston BM, MacKirdy FN, Howie JC, Jones R, Norrie JD. Assessment of.

Factors Influencing the Predictive Power of Models for Predicting Mortality and/or Heart Failure Hospitalization in Patients With Heart Failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Voors, Adriaan A.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

2014-01-01

The present paper systematically reviews and compares existing prediction models in order to establish the strongest variables, models, and model characteristics in patients with heart failure predicting outcome. To improve decision making accurately predicting mortality and heart-failure

Inflammation biomarkers and mortality prediction in patients with type 2 diabetes (ZODIAC-27)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Landman, Gijs W. D.; Kleefstra, Nanne; Groenier, Klaas H.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Groeneveld, Geert H.; Bilo, Henk J. G.; van Hateren, Kornelis J. J.

Background: C-reactive protein (CRP), procalcitonin (PCT) and pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) are inflammation markers associated with long-term mortality risk. We compared the associations and predictive capacities of CRP, PCT and MR-proADM with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in patients

A model to predict multivessel coronary artery disease from the exercise thallium-201 stress test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pollock, S.G.; Abbott, R.D.; Boucher, C.A.; Watson, D.D.; Kaul, S.

1991-01-01

The aim of this study was to (1) determine whether nonimaging variables add to the diagnostic information available from exercise thallium-201 images for the detection of multivessel coronary artery disease; and (2) to develop a model based on the exercise thallium-201 stress test to predict the presence of multivessel disease. The study populations included 383 patients referred to the University of Virginia and 325 patients referred to the Massachusetts General Hospital for evaluation of chest pain. All patients underwent both cardiac catheterization and exercise thallium-201 stress testing between 1978 and 1981. In the University of Virginia cohort, at each level of thallium-201 abnormality (no defects, one defect, more than one defect), ST depression and patient age added significantly in the detection of multivessel disease. Logistic regression analysis using data from these patients identified three independent predictors of multivessel disease: initial thallium-201 defects, ST depression, and age. A model was developed to predict multivessel disease based on these variables. As might be expected, the risk of multivessel disease predicted by the model was similar to that actually observed in the University of Virginia population. More importantly, however, the model was accurate in predicting the occurrence of multivessel disease in the unrelated population studied at the Massachusetts General Hospital. It is, therefore, concluded that (1) nonimaging variables (age and exercise-induced ST depression) add independent information to thallium-201 imaging data in the detection of multivessel disease; and (2) a model has been developed based on the exercise thallium-201 stress test that can accurately predict the probability of multivessel disease in other populations

Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuiver, Martijn M; Kampshoff, Caroline S; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J M; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M

2017-11-01

To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo 2peak ) and peak power output (W peak ). Cross-sectional study. Multicenter. Cancer survivors (N=283) in 2 randomized controlled exercise trials. Not applicable. Prediction model accuracy was assessed by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) and limits of agreement (LOA). Multiple linear regression was used for model extension. Clinical performance was judged by the percentage of accurate endurance exercise prescriptions. ICCs of SRT-predicted Vo 2peak and W peak with these values as obtained by the cardiopulmonary exercise test were .61 and .73, respectively, using the previously published prediction models. 95% LOA were ±705mL/min with a bias of 190mL/min for Vo 2peak and ±59W with a bias of 5W for W peak . Modest improvements were obtained by adding body weight and sex to the regression equation for the prediction of Vo 2peak (ICC, .73; 95% LOA, ±608mL/min) and by adding age, height, and sex for the prediction of W peak (ICC, .81; 95% LOA, ±48W). Accuracy of endurance exercise prescription improved from 57% accurate prescriptions to 68% accurate prescriptions with the new prediction model for W peak . Predictions of Vo 2peak and W peak based on the SRT are adequate at the group level, but insufficiently accurate in individual patients. The multivariable prediction model for W peak can be used cautiously (eg, supplemented with a Borg score) to aid endurance exercise prescription. Copyright © 2017 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Midline shift in relation to thickness of traumatic acute subdural hematoma predicts mortality

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bartels, R.H.M.A.; Meijer, F.J.; Hoeven, H. van der; Edwards, M.J.; Prokop, M.

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Traumatic acute subdural hematoma has a high mortality despite intensive treatment. Despite the existence of several prediction models, it is very hard to predict an outcome. We investigated whether a specific combination of initial head CT-scan findings is a factor in predicting

Predicting mortality in patients with heart failure : a pragmatic approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouvy, ML; Heerdink, ER; Leufkens, HGM; Hoes, AW

Objective: To develop a comprehensive and easily applicable prognostic model predicting mortality risk in patients with moderate to severe heart failure. Design: Prospective follow up study. Setting: Seven general hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients: 152 outpatients with heart failure or patients

Perceived extrinsic mortality risk and reported effort in looking after health: testing a behavioral ecological prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Pepper, Gillian V; Nettle, Daniel

2014-09-01

Socioeconomic gradients in health behavior are pervasive and well documented. Yet, there is little consensus on their causes. Behavioral ecological theory predicts that, if people of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) perceive greater personal extrinsic mortality risk than those of higher SEP, they should disinvest in their future health. We surveyed North American adults for reported effort in looking after health, perceived extrinsic and intrinsic mortality risks, and measures of SEP. We examined the relationships between these variables and found that lower subjective SEP predicted lower reported health effort. Lower subjective SEP was also associated with higher perceived extrinsic mortality risk, which in turn predicted lower reported health effort. The effect of subjective SEP on reported health effort was completely mediated by perceived extrinsic mortality risk. Our findings indicate that perceived extrinsic mortality risk may be a key factor underlying SEP gradients in motivation to invest in future health.

Use of APACHE II and SAPS II to predict mortality for hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Byeong Hoo; Park, Sang Kyu; Jang, Dong Kyu; Jang, Kyoung Sool; Kim, Jong Tae; Han, Yong Min

2015-01-01

We studied the applicability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with acute stroke and compared the results with the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS). We also conducted a comparative study of accuracy for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke mortality. Between January 2011 and December 2012, ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke patients admitted to the ICU were included in the study. APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were compared using a calibration curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the results were compared with the GCS and NIHSS. Overall 498 patients were included in this study. The observed mortality was 26.3%, whereas APACHE II and SAPS II-predicted mortalities were 35.12% and 35.34%, respectively. The mean GCS and NIHSS scores were 9.43 and 21.63, respectively. The calibration curve was close to the line of perfect prediction. The ROC curve showed a slightly better prediction of mortality for APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients. The GCS and NIHSS were inferior in predicting mortality in both patient groups. Although both the APACHE II and SAPS II systems can be used to measure performance in the neurosurgical ICU setting, the accuracy of APACHE II in hemorrhagic stroke patients and SAPS II in ischemic stroke patients was superior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

One- and 2-Year Mortality Prediction for Patients Starting Chronic Dialysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikko Haapio

2017-11-01

Discussion: Mortality prediction algorithms could be more widely implemented into management of ESRD patients. The presented models are practical with only a limited number of variables and fairly good performance.

Trends in referral patterns, invasive management, and mortality in elderly patients referred for exercise stress testing.

Science.gov (United States)

Bouzas-Mosquera, Alberto; Peteiro, Jesús; Broullón, Francisco J; Calviño-Santos, Ramón; Mosquera, Víctor X; Barbeito-Caamaño, Cayetana; Larrañaga-Moreira, José María; Maneiro-Melón, Nicolás; Álvarez-García, Nemesio; Vázquez-Rodríguez, José Manuel

2015-12-01

Scarce data are available on the temporal patterns in clinical characteristics and outcomes of elderly patients referred for exercise stress testing. We aimed to assess the trends in baseline characteristics, tests results, referrals for invasive management, and mortality in these patients. We evaluated 11,192 patients aged ≥65years who were referred for exercise stress testing between January 1998 and December 2013. Calendar years were grouped into four quadrennia (1998-2001, 2002-2005, 2006-2009, and 2010-2013), and trends in clinical characteristics of the patients, type and results of the tests, referrals for invasive management, and mortality across the different periods were assessed. Despite a progressive decrease in the proportion of patients with non-interpretable baseline electrocardiograms or prior history of coronary artery disease, there was a gradual and marked increase in the use of cardiac imaging from 32.8% in 1998-2001 to 67.6% in 2010-2013 (pstress testing both without imaging (from 18.9 to 13.6%, pstress testing, we observed a decline over time in the probability of inducible myocardial ischemia, an increase in the use of cardiac imaging and in the rate of coronary revascularization, and an improvement in the survival rate at 1year. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chemotherapy effectiveness and mortality prediction in surgically treated osteosarcoma dogs : A validation study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmidt, A F; Nielen, M; Withrow, S J; Selmic, L E; Burton, J H; Klungel, O H; Groenwold, R H H; Kirpensteijn, J

2016-01-01

Canine osteosarcoma is the most common bone cancer, and an important cause of mortality and morbidity, in large purebred dogs. Previously we constructed two multivariable models to predict a dog's 5-month or 1-year mortality risk after surgical treatment for osteosarcoma. According to the 5-month

Do Parents’ Exercise Habits Predict 13–18-Year-Old Adolescents’ Involvement in Sport?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saulius Sukys, Daiva Majauskienė, Vida J. Cesnaitiene, Diana Karanauskiene

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This study examined links between parents’ exercise habits and adolescents’ participation in sports activities, considering the aspects of gender and age. It was hypothesized that regular exercise by both parents would be related to children’s involvement in sport regardless of their gender and age. Moreover, it was hypothesized that children’s sports activities would be more strongly related to their father’s exercise activities. The study also examined the links between parents’ exercise habits and children’s motivation for sports. It was hypothesized that competition motives would be more important for children whose parents exercised regularly. The research sample included 2335 students from the seventh (n = 857, ninth (n = 960 and eleventh (n = 518 grades of various Lithuanian schools. The study used a questionnaire survey method, which revealed the links between parents’ exercise habits and their children’s participation in sport. Assessment of data for girls and boys showed that daughters’ participation in sport could be predicted by both their fathers’ and mothers’ exercise habits, but sons’ sports activities could be predicted only by the regular physical activities of their fathers. The assessment of children’s sporting activities according to age revealed links between parental exercising and the engagement of older (15–16 years old, but not younger adolescents (13–14 years old. Analysis of sports motivation showed that competition motives were more important for boys than for girls. Fitness, well-being and appearance motives were more important for older adolescents (15–18 years old, while competition motives were more important for younger adolescents (13–14 years old. Research revealed the relationship between children’s sport motives and fathers’ exercise habits, while examination of mothers’ exercise revealed no difference.

Using molecular classification to predict gains in maximal aerobic capacity following endurance exercise training in humans

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Timmons, James A; Knudsen, Steen; Rankinen, Tuomo

2010-01-01

A low maximal oxygen consumption (VO2max) is a strong risk factor for premature mortality. Supervised endurance exercise training increases VO2max with a very wide range of effectiveness in humans. Discovering the DNA variants that contribute to this heterogeneity typically requires substantial s...

Prediction of treatment outcomes to exercise in patients with nonremitted major depressive disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Rethorst, Chad D; South, Charles C; Rush, A John; Greer, Tracy L; Trivedi, Madhukar H

2017-12-01

Only one-third of patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) achieve remission with initial treatment. Consequently, current clinical practice relies on a "trial-and-error" approach to identify an effective treatment for each patient. The purpose of this report was to determine whether we could identify a set of clinical and biological parameters with potential clinical utility for prescription of exercise for treatment of MDD in a secondary analysis of the Treatment with Exercise Augmentation in Depression (TREAD) trial. Participants with nonremitted MDD were randomized to one of two exercise doses for 12 weeks. Participants were categorized as "remitters" (≤12 on the IDS-C), nonresponders (drop in IDS-C), or neither. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and random forests were used to evaluate 30 variables as predictors of both remission and nonresponse. Predictors were used to model treatment outcomes using logistic regression. Of the 122 participants, 36 were categorized as remitters (29.5%), 56 as nonresponders (45.9%), and 30 as neither (24.6%). Predictors of remission were higher levels of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and IL-1B, greater depressive symptom severity, and higher postexercise positive affect. Predictors of treatment nonresponse were low cardiorespiratory fitness, lower levels of IL-6 and BDNF, and lower postexercise positive affect. Models including these predictors resulted in predictive values greater than 70% (true predicted remitters/all predicted remitters) with specificities greater than 25% (true predicted remitters/all remitters). Results indicate feasibility in identifying patients who will either remit or not respond to exercise as a treatment for MDD utilizing a clinical decision model that incorporates multiple patient characteristics. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Sarcopenia predicts 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer: a prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dong-Dong; Chen, Xiao-Xi; Chen, Xi-Yi; Wang, Su-Lin; Shen, Xian; Chen, Xiao-Lei; Yu, Zhen; Zhuang, Cheng-Le

2016-11-01

One-year mortality is vital for elderly oncologic patients undergoing surgery. Recent studies have demonstrated that sarcopenia can predict outcomes after major abdominal surgeries, but the association of sarcopenia and 1-year mortality has never been investigated in a prospective study. We conducted a prospective study of elderly patients (≥65 years) who underwent curative gastrectomy for gastric cancer from July 2014 to July 2015. Sarcopenia was determined by the measurements of muscle mass, handgrip strength, and gait speed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the risk factors associated with 1-year mortality. A total of 173 patients were included, in which 52 (30.1 %) patients were identified as having sarcopenia. Twenty-four (13.9 %) patients died within 1 year of surgery. Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia was an independent risk factor for 1-year mortality. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve demonstrated an increased predictive power for 1-year mortality with the inclusion of sarcopenia, from 0.835 to 0.868. Solely low muscle mass was not predictive of 1-year mortality in the multivariate analysis. Sarcopenia is predictive of 1-year mortality in elderly patients undergoing gastric cancer surgery. The measurement of muscle function is important for sarcopenia as a preoperative assessment tool.

Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor Predicts Mortality Risk in Older Women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krabbe, K.S.; Mortensen, E.L.; Avlund, K.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVES To test the hypothesis that low circulating brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), a secretory member of the neurotrophin family that has a protective role in neurodegeneration and stress responses and a regulatory role in metabolism, predicts risk of all-cause mortality in 85-year...

Predicting mortality and length-of-stay for neonatal admissions to ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Objectives: To predict neonatal mortality and length of stay (LOS) from readily available perinatal data for neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) admissions in Southern African private hospitals. Methods: Retrospective observational study using perinatal data from a large multicentre sample. Fifteen participating NICU centres ...

Depression increasingly predicts mortality in the course of congestive heart failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Jünger, Jana; Schellberg, Dieter; Müller-Tasch, Thomas; Raupp, Georg; Zugck, Christian; Haunstetter, Armin; Zipfel, Stephan; Herzog, Wolfgang; Haass, Markus

2005-03-02

Congestive heart failure (CHF) is frequently associated with depression. However, the impact of depression on prognosis has not yet been sufficiently established. To prospectively investigate the influence of depression on mortality in patients with CHF. In 209 CHF patients depression was assessed by the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). Compared to survivors (n=164), non-survivors (n=45) were characterized by a higher New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class (2.8+/-0.7 vs. 2.5+/-0.6), and a lower left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (18+/-8 vs. 23+/-10%) and peakVO(2) (13.1+/-4.5 vs. 15.4+/-5.2 ml/kg/min) at baseline. Furthermore, non-survivors had a higher depression score (7.5+/-4.0 vs. 6.1+/-4.3) (all P<0.05). After a mean follow-up of 24.8 months the depression score was identified as a significant indicator of mortality (P<0.01). In multivariate analysis the depression score predicted mortality independent from NYHA functional class, LVEF and peakVO(2). Combination of depression score, LVEF and peakVO(2) allowed for a better risk stratification than combination of LVEF and peakVO(2) alone. The risk ratio for mortality in patients with an elevated depression score (i.e. above the median) rose over time to 8.2 after 30 months (CI 2.62-25.84). The depression score predicts mortality independent of somatic parameters in CHF patients not treated for depression. Its prognostic power increases over time and should, thus, be accounted for in risk stratification and therapy.

Increasing discomfort tolerance predicts incentive senitization of exercise reinforcement: Preliminary results from a randomized controlled intervention to increase the reinforcing value of exercise in overweight to obese adu

Science.gov (United States)

Objective: The reinforcing (motivating) value of exercise/physical activity (RRVex) predicts usual exercise behavior and meeting of physical activity guidelines. Recent cross-sectional evidence suggests, for the first time, that greater tolerance for the discomfort experienced during exercise is ass...

Role of exercise thallium-201 myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in predicting prognosis in suspected coronary artery disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koss, J.H.; Kobren, S.M.; Grunwald, A.M.; Bodenheimer, M.M.

1987-01-01

While exercise thallium imaging has improved sensitivity and specificity for detection of coronary artery disease (CAD), its predictive value for morbid cardiac events is unclear. Of 532 consecutive patients who underwent exercise thallium imaging, follow-up was complete in 515 (97%) after an average of 36 months (range 31 to 48). Two hundred six patients had an abnormal exercise thallium response and 309 had a normal response. Twenty morbid cardiac events occurred (13 deaths and 7 acute myocardial infarctions [AMI]). Of the 13 patients who died, 12 had abnormal thallium results. Overall, 5.8% of the patients with abnormal thallium results died, in contrast to 0.3% of patients with normal results. Of the 7 patients who had a nonfatal AMI, 3 had abnormal exercise thallium results. Moreover, similar proportions of patients (1.4% and 1.3%) with normal and abnormal exercise thallium results had nonfatal AMI. Presence or absence of pathologic Q waves and inclusion of exercise electrocardiographic results did not significantly alter the results. Thus, although a normal exercise thallium response significantly reduces the likelihood of cardiovascular death, its predictive value for nonfatal AMI is limited. Moreover, the relatively low event rate for patients with a positive exercise thallium response further limits its prognostic value

[Evaluation of the capacity of the APR-DRG classification system to predict hospital mortality].

Science.gov (United States)

De Marco, Maria Francesca; Lorenzoni, Luca; Addari, Piero; Nante, Nicola

2002-01-01

Inpatient mortality has increasingly been used as an hospital outcome measure. Comparing mortality rates across hospitals requires adjustment for patient risks before making inferences about quality of care based on patient outcomes. Therefore it is essential to dispose of well performing severity measures. The aim of this study is to evaluate the ability of the All Patient Refined DRG system to predict inpatient mortality for congestive heart failure, myocardial infarction, pneumonia and ischemic stroke. Administrative records were used in this analysis. We used two statistics methods to assess the ability of the APR-DRG to predict mortality: the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (referred to as the c-statistic) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The database for the study included 19,212 discharges for stroke, pneumonia, myocardial infarction and congestive heart failure from fifteen hospital participating in the Italian APR-DRG Project. A multivariate analysis was performed to predict mortality for each condition in study using age, sex and APR-DRG risk mortality subclass as independent variables. Inpatient mortality rate ranges from 9.7% (pneumonia) to 16.7% (stroke). Model discrimination, calculated using the c-statistic, was 0.91 for myocardial infarction, 0.68 for stroke, 0.78 for pneumonia and 0.71 for congestive heart failure. The model calibration assessed using the Hosmer-Leme-show test was quite good. The performance of the APR-DRG scheme when used on Italian hospital activity records is similar to that reported in literature and it seems to improve by adding age and sex to the model. The APR-DRG system does not completely capture the effects of these variables. In some cases, the better performance might be due to the inclusion of specific complications in the risk-of-mortality subclass assignment.

Predicting short and long-term exercise intentions and behaviour in patients with coronary artery disease: A test of protection motivation theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Tulloch, Heather; Reida, Robert; D'Angeloa, Monika Slovinec; Plotnikoff, Ronald C; Morrina, Louise; Beatona, Louise; Papadakisa, Sophia; Pipe, Andrew

2009-03-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of protection motivation theory (PMT) in the prediction of exercise intentions and behaviour in the year following hospitalisation for coronary artery disease (CAD). Patients with documented CAD (n = 787), recruited at hospital discharge, completed questionnaires measuring PMT's threat (i.e. perceived severity and vulnerability) and coping (i.e. self-efficacy, response efficacy) appraisal constructs at baseline, 2 and 6 months, and exercise behaviour at baseline, 6 and 12 months post-hospitalisation. Structural equation modelling showed that the PMT model of exercise at 6 months had a good fit with the empirical data. Self-efficacy, response efficacy, and perceived severity predicted exercise intentions, which, in turn predicted exercise behaviour. Overall, the PMT variables accounted for a moderate amount of variance in exercise intentions (23%) and behaviour (20%). In contrast, the PMT model was not reliable for predicting exercise behaviour at 12 months post-hospitalisation. The data provided support for PMT applied to short-term, but not long-term, exercise behaviour among patients with CAD. Health education should concentrate on providing positive coping messages to enhance patients' confidence regarding exercise and their belief that exercise provides health benefits, as well as realistic information about disease severity.

Validity of predicting left ventricular end systolic pressure changes following an acute bout of exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Kappus, Rebecca M; Ranadive, Sushant M; Yan, Huimin; Lane, Abbi D; Cook, Marc D; Hall, Grenita; Harvey, I Shevon; Wilund, Kenneth R; Woods, Jeffrey A; Fernhall, Bo

2013-01-01

Left ventricular end systolic pressure (LV ESP) is important in assessing left ventricular performance and is usually derived from prediction equations. It is unknown whether these equations are accurate at rest or following exercise in a young, healthy population. Measured LV ESP vs. LV ESP values from the prediction equations were compared at rest, 15 min and 30 min following peak aerobic exercise in 60 participants. LV ESP was obtained by applanation tonometry at rest, 15 min post and 30 min post peak cycle exercise. Measured LV ESP was significantly lower (p<0.05) at all time points in comparison to the two calculated values. Measured LV ESP decreased significantly from rest at both the post15 and post30 time points (p<0.05) and changed differently in comparison to the calculated values (significant interaction; p<0.05). The two LV ESP equations were also significantly different from each other (p<0.05) and changed differently over time (significant interaction; p<0.05). The two commonly used prediction equations did not accurately predict either resting or post exercise LV ESP in a young, healthy population. Thus, LV ESP needs to be individually determined in young, healthy participants. Non-invasive measurement through applanation tonometry appears to allow for a more accurate determination of LV ESP. Copyright © 2012 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing observed and predicted mortality among ICUs using different prognostic systems: why do performance assessments differ?

Science.gov (United States)

Kramer, Andrew A; Higgins, Thomas L; Zimmerman, Jack E

2015-02-01

To compare ICU performance using standardized mortality ratios generated by the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and a National Quality Forum-endorsed methodology and examine potential reasons for model-based standardized mortality ratio differences. Retrospective analysis of day 1 hospital mortality predictions at the ICU level using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum models on the same patient cohort. Forty-seven ICUs at 36 U.S. hospitals from January 2008 to May 2013. Eighty-nine thousand three hundred fifty-three consecutive unselected ICU admissions. None. We assessed standardized mortality ratios for each ICU using data for patients eligible for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and National Quality Forum predictions in order to compare unit-level model performance, differences in ICU rankings, and how case-mix adjustment might explain standardized mortality ratio differences. Hospital mortality was 11.5%. Overall standardized mortality ratio was 0.89 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 1.07 using National Quality Forum, the latter having a widely dispersed and multimodal standardized mortality ratio distribution. Model exclusion criteria eliminated mortality predictions for 10.6% of patients for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa and 27.9% for National Quality Forum. The two models agreed on the significance and direction of standardized mortality ratio only 45% of the time. Four ICUs had standardized mortality ratios significantly less than 1.0 using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa, but significantly greater than 1.0 using National Quality Forum. Two ICUs had standardized mortality ratios exceeding 1.75 using National Quality Forum, but nonsignificant performance using Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IVa. Stratification by patient and institutional characteristics indicated that units caring for more

Lung cancer mortality in European women: trends and predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bosetti, Cristina; Malvezzi, Matteo; Rosso, Tiziana; Bertuccio, Paola; Gallus, Silvano; Chatenoud, Liliane; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo

2012-12-01

Female lung cancer mortality increased by 50% between the mid 1960s and the early 2000s in the European Union (EU). To monitor the current lung cancer epidemic in European women, we analyzed mortality trends in 33 European countries between 1970 and 2009 and estimated rates for the year 2015 using data from the World Health Organization. Female lung cancer mortality has been increasing up to recent calendar years in most European countries, with the exceptions of Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine, with relatively low rates, and the UK, Iceland and Ireland, where high rates were reached in mid/late 1990s to leveled off thereafter. In the EU, female lung cancer mortality rates rose over the last decade from 11.3 to 12.7/100,000 (+2.3% per year) at all ages and from 18.6 to 21.5/100,000 (+3.0% per year) in middle-age. A further increase is predicted, to reach 14/100,000 women in 2015. Lung cancer mortality trends have been more favorable over the last decade in young women (20-44 years), particularly in the UK and other former high-risk countries from northern and central/eastern Europe, but also in France, Italy, and Spain where mortality in young women has been increasing up to the early 2000s. In the EU as a whole, mortality at age 20-44 years decreased from 1.6 to 1.4/100,000 (-2.2% per year). Although the female lung cancer epidemic in Europe is still expanding, the epidemic may be controlled through the implementation of effective anti-tobacco measures, and it will probably never reach the top US rates. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting in-hospital mortality after redo cardiac operations: development of a preoperative scorecard.

Science.gov (United States)

Launcelott, Sebastian; Ouzounian, Maral; Buth, Karen J; Légaré, Jean-Francois

2012-09-01

The present study generated a risk model and an easy-to-use scorecard for the preoperative prediction of in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing redo cardiac operations. All patients who underwent redo cardiac operations in which the initial and subsequent procedures were performed through a median sternotomy were included. A logistic regression model was created to identify independent preoperative predictors of in-hospital mortality. The results were then used to create a scorecard predicting operative risk. A total of 1,521 patients underwent redo procedures between 1995 and 2010 at a single institution. Coronary bypass procedures were the most common previous (58%) or planned operations (54%). The unadjusted in-hospital mortality for all redo cases was higher than for first-time procedures (9.7% vs. 3.4%; pscorecard was generated using these independent predictors, stratifying patients undergoing redo cardiac operations into 6 risk categories of in-hospital mortality ranging from risk to >40%. Reoperation represents a significant proportion of modern cardiac surgical procedures and is often associated with significantly higher mortality than first-time operations. We created an easy-to-use scorecard to assist clinicians in estimating operative mortality to ensure optimal decision making in the care of patients facing redo cardiac operations. Copyright © 2012 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Exercise Hypertension.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Martin G; Sharman, James E

2014-05-01

Irrespective of apparent 'normal' resting blood pressure (BP), some individuals may experience an excessive elevation in BP with exercise (i.e. systolic BP ≥210 mm Hg in men or ≥190 mm Hg in women or diastolic BP ≥110 mm Hg in men or women), a condition termed exercise hypertension or a 'hypertensive response to exercise' (HRE). An HRE is a relatively common condition that is identified during standard exercise stress testing; however, due to a lack of information with respect to the clinical ramifications of an HRE, little value is usually placed on such a finding. In this review, we discuss both the clinical importance and underlying physiological contributors of exercise hypertension. Indeed, an HRE is associated with an increased propensity for target organ damage and also predicts the future development of hypertension, cardiovascular events and mortality, independent of resting BP. Moreover, recent work has highlighted that some of the elevated cardiovascular risks associated with an HRE may be related to high-normal resting BP (pre-hypertension) or ambulatory 'masked' hypertension and that an HRE may be an early warning signal of abnormal BP control that is otherwise undetected with clinic BP. Whilst an HRE may be amenable to treatment via pharmacological and lifestyle interventions, the exact physiological mechanism of an HRE remains elusive, but it is likely a manifestation of multiple factors including large artery stiffness, increased peripheral resistance, neural circulatory control and metabolic irregularity. Future research focus may be directed towards determining threshold values to denote the increased risk associated with an HRE and further resolution of the underlying physiological factors involved in the pathogenesis of an HRE.

Body talk among undergraduate women: why conversations about exercise and weight loss differentially predict body appreciation.

Science.gov (United States)

Wasylkiw, Louise; Butler, Nicole A

2014-08-01

Undergraduate women (N = 143) completed self-reports on exercise behavior, body orientation, body appreciation, and body-related talk. Results showed that conversations about weight loss/dieting and conversations about exercise differentially predicted body appreciation. Importantly, multiple regression analyses showed that the relationship between talk type and body appreciation was explained by the object-process dichotomy: Conversations about exercise oriented women to consider what their bodies can do which, in turn, predicted appreciation of one's body. In contrast, the relationship between conversations about weight loss/dieting and body appreciation was mediated by negative attitudes about one's body but not by an object orientation. © The Author(s) 2013.

Using squat testing to predict training loads for lower-body exercises in elite karate athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Wong, Del P; Tan, Erik C H; Chaouachi, Anis; Carling, Christopher; Castagna, Carlo; Bloomfield, Jonathan; Behm, David G

2010-11-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between squat loads and 2 bilateral and 2 unilateral stepping lower-body exercises in predominantly unilateral movement elite athletes (Karate). Equations to predict loads for lower-body exercises based on the squat load were also determined. Fourteen male elite Karate athletes (age = 22.6 ± 1.2 years) performed 6 repetition maximum (RM) of the following free-weight bilateral exercises: back half squat, deadlift, leg press and unilateral stepping exercises, lunge; and step-up. Results showed that 6RM squat load was significantly (p squat load was a significant predictor for deadlift, leg press, lunge, and step-up (R2 range from 0.57 to 0.85, p squat load (1.12)-16.60 kg, (b) Leg press = squat load (1.66) + 16.10 kg, (c) Lunge = squat load (0.61) + 9.39 kg, and (d) step-up = squat load (0.85)-10.36 kg. Coaches and fitness professionals can use the 6RM squat load as a time effective and accurate method to predict training loads for both bilateral and unilateral lower-body exercises with quadriceps as the prime mover. Load prescriptions for unilateral exercises should take into account the type of athletic population.

A Modified APACHE II Score for Predicting Mortality of Variceal ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Conclusion: Modified APACHE II score is effective in predicting outcome of patients with variceal bleeding. Score of L 15 points and long ICU stay are associated with high mortality. Keywords: liver cirrhosis, periportal fibrosis, portal hypertension, schistosomiasis udan Journal of Medical Sciences Vol. 2 (2) 2007: pp. 105- ...

Increase in waist circumference over 6 years predicts subsequent cardiovascular disease and total mortality in nordic women

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Klingberg, Sofia; Mehlig, Kirsten; Lanfer, Anne

2015-01-01

-shaped association. Associations between increase in WC and outcomes were restricted to women with normal weight at baseline and to ever-smokers. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to changes in HC which did not predict mortality and CVD, a 6-year increase in WC is strongly predictive, particularly among initially lean women...... and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women but that gain or loss in HC was unrelated to these outcomes. This study examines whether a 6-year change in waist circumference (WC) predicts mortality and CVD in the same study sample. METHODS: Baseline WC and 6-year change in WC as predictors of mortality and CVD...... were analyzed in 2,492 women from the Danish MONICA study and the Prospective Population Study of Women in Gothenburg, Sweden. RESULTS: Increase in WC was significantly associated with increased subsequent mortality and CVD adjusting for BMI and other covariates, with some evidence of a J...

Does personality predict mortality? Results from the GAZEL French prospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabi, Hermann; Kivimäki, Mika; Zins, Marie; Elovainio, Marko; Consoli, Silla M; Cordier, Sylvaine; Ducimetière, Pierre; Goldberg, Marcel; Singh-Manoux, Archana

2008-04-01

Majority of studies on personality and physical health have focused on one or two isolated personality traits. We aim to test the independent association of 10 personality traits, from three major conceptual models, with all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the French GAZEL cohort. A total of 14,445 participants, aged 39-54 in 1993, completed the personality questionnaires composed of the Bortner Type-A scale, the Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory (for total, neurotic and reactive hostility) and the Grossarth-Maticek-Eysenck Personality Stress Inventory that assesses six personality types [cancer-prone, coronary heart disease (CHD)-prone, ambivalent, healthy, rational, anti-social]. The association between personality traits and mortality, during a mean follow-up of 12.7 years, was assessed using the Relative Index of Inequality (RII) in Cox regression. In models adjusted for age, sex, marital status and education, all-cause and cause-specific mortality were predicted by 'total hostility', its 'neurotic hostility' component as well as by 'CHD-prone', 'ambivalent' 'antisocial', and 'healthy' personality types. After mutually adjusting personality traits for each other, only high 'neurotic hostility' remained a robust predictor of excess mortality from all causes [RII = 2.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.68-4.09] and external causes (RII = 3.24; 95% CI = 1.03-10.18). 'CHD-prone' (RII = 2.23; 95% CI = 0.72-6.95) and 'anti-social' (RII = 2.13; 95% CI 0.61-6.58) personality types were associated with cardiovascular mortality and with mortality from external causes, respectively, but CIs were wider. Adjustment for potential behavioural mediators had only a modest effect on these associations. Neurotic hostility, CHD-prone personality and anti-social personality were all predictive of mortality outcomes. Further research is required to determine the precise mechanisms that contribute to these associations.

explICU: A web-based visualization and predictive modeling toolkit for mortality in intensive care patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Robert; Kumar, Vikas; Fitch, Natalie; Jagadish, Jitesh; Lifan Zhang; Dunn, William; Duen Horng Chau

2015-01-01

Preventing mortality in intensive care units (ICUs) has been a top priority in American hospitals. Predictive modeling has been shown to be effective in prediction of mortality based upon data from patients' past medical histories from electronic health records (EHRs). Furthermore, visualization of timeline events is imperative in the ICU setting in order to quickly identify trends in patient histories that may lead to mortality. With the increasing adoption of EHRs, a wealth of medical data is becoming increasingly available for secondary uses such as data exploration and predictive modeling. While data exploration and predictive modeling are useful for finding risk factors in ICU patients, the process is time consuming and requires a high level of computer programming ability. We propose explICU, a web service that hosts EHR data, displays timelines of patient events based upon user-specified preferences, performs predictive modeling in the back end, and displays results to the user via intuitive, interactive visualizations.

Lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in adult sepsis and septic shock patients

Science.gov (United States)

Sinto, R.; Widodo, D.; Pohan, H. T.

2018-03-01

Previous lactate clearance cut off for early mortality prediction in sepsis and septic shock patient was determined by consensus from small sample size-study. We investigated the best lactate clearance cut off and its ability to predict early mortality in sepsis and septic shock patients. This cohort study was conducted in Intensive Care Unit of CiptoMangunkusumo Hospital in 2013. Patients’ lactate clearance and eight other resuscitationendpoints were recorded, and theoutcome was observed during the first 120 hours. The clearance cut off was determined using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and its ability was investigated with Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis using other resuscitation endpoints as confounders. Total of 268 subjects was included, of whom 70 (26.11%) subjects died within the first 120 hours. The area under ROC of lactate clearance to predict early mortality was 0.78 (95% % confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.84) with best cut off was <7.5% (sensitivity and specificity 88.99% and 81.4% respectively). Compared with group achieving lactate clearance target, group not achieving lactate clearance target had to increase early mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio 13.42; 95%CI 7.19-25.07). In conclusion, the best lactate clearance cut off as anearly mortality predictor in sepsis and septic shock patients is 7.5%.

Does life satisfaction predict five-year mortality in community-living older adults?

Science.gov (United States)

St John, Philip D; Mackenzie, Corey; Menec, Verena

2015-01-01

Depression and depressive symptoms predict death, but it is less clear if more general measures of life satisfaction (LS) predict death. Our objectives were to determine: (1) if LS predicts mortality over a five-year period in community-living older adults; and (2) which aspects of LS predict death. 1751 adults over the age of 65 who were living in the community were sampled from a representative population sampling frame in 1991/1992 and followed five years later. Age, gender, and education were self-reported. An index of multimorbidity and the Older American Resource Survey measured health and functional status, and the Terrible-Delightful Scale assessed overall LS as well as satisfaction with: health, finances, family, friends, housing, recreation, self-esteem, religion, and transportation. Cox proportional hazards models examined the influence of LS on time to death. 417 participants died during the five-year study period. Overall LS and all aspects of LS except finances, religion, and self-esteem predicted death in unadjusted analyses. In fully adjusted analyses, LS with health, housing, and recreation predicted death. Other aspects of LS did not predict death after accounting for functional status and multimorbidity. LS predicted death, but certain aspects of LS are more strongly associated with death. The effect of LS is complex and may be mediated or confounded by health and functional status. It is important to consider different domains of LS when considering the impact of this important emotional indicator on mortality among older adults.

Prediction of mortality after radical cystectomy for bladder cancer by machine learning techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Guanjin; Lam, Kin-Man; Deng, Zhaohong; Choi, Kup-Sze

2015-08-01

Bladder cancer is a common cancer in genitourinary malignancy. For muscle invasive bladder cancer, surgical removal of the bladder, i.e. radical cystectomy, is in general the definitive treatment which, unfortunately, carries significant morbidities and mortalities. Accurate prediction of the mortality of radical cystectomy is therefore needed. Statistical methods have conventionally been used for this purpose, despite the complex interactions of high-dimensional medical data. Machine learning has emerged as a promising technique for handling high-dimensional data, with increasing application in clinical decision support, e.g. cancer prediction and prognosis. Its ability to reveal the hidden nonlinear interactions and interpretable rules between dependent and independent variables is favorable for constructing models of effective generalization performance. In this paper, seven machine learning methods are utilized to predict the 5-year mortality of radical cystectomy, including back-propagation neural network (BPN), radial basis function (RBFN), extreme learning machine (ELM), regularized ELM (RELM), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB) classifier and k-nearest neighbour (KNN), on a clinicopathological dataset of 117 patients of the urology unit of a hospital in Hong Kong. The experimental results indicate that RELM achieved the highest average prediction accuracy of 0.8 at a fast learning speed. The research findings demonstrate the potential of applying machine learning techniques to support clinical decision making. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Update of predictions of mortality from pleural mesothelioma in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

O. Segura; A. Burdorf (Alex); C.W.N. Looman (Caspar)

2003-01-01

textabstractAIMS: To predict the expected number of pleural mesothelioma deaths in the Netherlands from 2000 to 2028 and to study the effect of main uncertainties in the modelling technique. METHODS: Through an age-period-cohort modelling technique, age specific mortality rates

Validation of lactate clearance at 6 h for mortality prediction in critically ill children

OpenAIRE

Rajeev Kumar; Nirmal Kumar

2016-01-01

Background and Aims: To validate the lactate clearance (LC) at 6 h for mortality prediction in Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU)-admitted patients and its comparison with a pediatric index of mortality 2 (PIM 2) score. Design: A prospective, observational study in a tertiary care center. Materials and Methods: Children

Missing Value Imputation Improves Mortality Risk Prediction Following Cardiac Surgery: An Investigation of an Australian Patient Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Karim, Md Nazmul; Reid, Christopher M; Tran, Lavinia; Cochrane, Andrew; Billah, Baki

2017-03-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of missing values on the prediction performance of the model predicting 30-day mortality following cardiac surgery as an example. Information from 83,309 eligible patients, who underwent cardiac surgery, recorded in the Australia and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) database registry between 2001 and 2014, was used. An existing 30-day mortality risk prediction model developed from ANZSCTS database was re-estimated using the complete cases (CC) analysis and using multiple imputation (MI) analysis. Agreement between the risks generated by the CC and MI analysis approaches was assessed by the Bland-Altman method. Performances of the two models were compared. One or more missing predictor variables were present in 15.8% of the patients in the dataset. The Bland-Altman plot demonstrated significant disagreement between the risk scores (prisk of mortality. Compared to CC analysis, MI analysis resulted in an average of 8.5% decrease in standard error, a measure of uncertainty. The MI model provided better prediction of mortality risk (observed: 2.69%; MI: 2.63% versus CC: 2.37%, Pvalues improved the 30-day mortality risk prediction following cardiac surgery. Copyright © 2016 Australian and New Zealand Society of Cardiac and Thoracic Surgeons (ANZSCTS) and the Cardiac Society of Australia and New Zealand (CSANZ). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Type 2 diabetes mellitus and exercise impairment.

Science.gov (United States)

Reusch, Jane E B; Bridenstine, Mark; Regensteiner, Judith G

2013-03-01

Limitations in physical fitness, a consistent finding in individuals with both type I and type 2 diabetes mellitus, correlate strongly with cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. These limitations may significantly contribute to the persistent excess cardiovascular mortality affecting this group. Exercise impairments in VO2 peak and VO2 kinetics manifest early on in diabetes, even with good glycemic control and in the absence of clinically apparent complications. Subclinical cardiac dysfunction is often present but does not fully explain the observed defect in exercise capacity in persons with diabetes. In part, the cardiac limitations are secondary to decreased perfusion with exercise challenge. This is a reversible defect. Similarly, in the skeletal muscle, impairments in nutritive blood flow correlate with slowed (or inefficient) exercise kinetics and decreased exercise capacity. Several correlations highlight the likelihood of endothelial-specific impairments as mediators of exercise dysfunction in diabetes, including insulin resistance, endothelial dysfunction, decreased myocardial perfusion, slowed tissue hemoglobin oxygen saturation, and impairment in mitochondrial function. Both exercise training and therapies targeted at improving insulin sensitivity and endothelial function improve physical fitness in subjects with type 2 diabetes. Optimization of exercise functions in people with diabetes has implications for diabetes prevention and reductions in mortality risk. Understanding the molecular details of endothelial dysfunction in diabetes may provide specific therapeutic targets for the remediation of this defect. Rat models to test this hypothesis are under study.

Attitudes toward physical activity and exercise: comparison of memory clinic patients and their caregivers and prediction of activity levels.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connell, Megan E; Dal Bello-Haas, Vanina; Crossley, Margaret; Morgan, Debra G

2015-01-01

Regular physical activity and exercise (PA&E) reduces cognitive aging, may delay dementia onset, and for persons with dementia, may slow progression and improve quality of life. Memory clinic patients and caregivers described their PA&E and completed the Older Persons' Attitudes Toward Physical Activity and Exercise Questionnaire (OPAPAEQ). Caregivers and patients differed in their PA&E attitudes: patients were less likely to believe in the importance of PA&E for health promotion. PA&E attitudes were explored as predictors of self-reported exercise habits. Belief in the importance of high intensity exercise for health maintenance was the only variable that significantly predicted engagement in regular PA&E. Moreover, caregivers' attitudes toward high intensity exercise predicted memory patients' participation in PA&E. These findings may aid in development of exercise interventions for people with memory problems, and suggest that modification of specific attitudes toward exercise is an important component to ensure maximum participation and engagement in PA&E.

Risk score for predicting long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Chuntao; Camacho, Fabian T; Wechsler, Andrew S; Lahey, Stephen; Culliford, Alfred T; Jordan, Desmond; Gold, Jeffrey P; Higgins, Robert S D; Smith, Craig R; Hannan, Edward L

2012-05-22

No simplified bedside risk scores have been created to predict long-term mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. The New York State Cardiac Surgery Reporting System was used to identify 8597 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass graft surgery in July through December 2000. The National Death Index was used to ascertain patients' vital statuses through December 31, 2007. A Cox proportional hazards model was fit to predict death after CABG surgery using preprocedural risk factors. Then, points were assigned to significant predictors of death on the basis of the values of their regression coefficients. For each possible point total, the predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 were calculated. It was found that the 7-year mortality rate was 24.2 in the study population. Significant predictors of death included age, body mass index, ejection fraction, unstable hemodynamic state or shock, left main coronary artery disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral arterial disease, congestive heart failure, malignant ventricular arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes mellitus, renal failure, and history of open heart surgery. The points assigned to these risk factors ranged from 1 to 7; possible point totals for each patient ranged from 0 to 28. The observed and predicted risks of death at years 1, 3, 5, and 7 across patient groups stratified by point totals were highly correlated. The simplified risk score accurately predicted the risk of mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery and can be used for informed consent and as an aid in determining treatment choice.

Early hospital readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications predicts long-term mortality after pancreatectomy.

Science.gov (United States)

Hicks, Caitlin W; Tosoian, Jeffrey J; Craig-Schapiro, Rebecca; Valero, Vicente; Cameron, John L; Eckhauser, Frederic E; Hirose, Kenzo; Makary, Martin A; Pawlik, Timothy M; Ahuja, Nita; Weiss, Matthew J; Wolfgang, Christopher L

2015-10-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic significance of early (30-day) hospital readmission (EHR) on mortality after pancreatectomy. Using a prospectively collected institutional database linked with a statewide dataset, we evaluated the association between EHR and overall mortality in all patients undergoing pancreatectomy at our tertiary institution (2005 to 2010). Of 595 pancreatectomy patients, EHR occurred in 21.5%. Overall mortality was 29.4% (median follow-up 22.7 months). Patients with EHR had decreased survival compared with those who were not readmitted (P = .011). On multivariate analysis adjusting for baseline group differences, EHR for gastrointestinal-related complications was a significant independent predictor of mortality (hazard ratio 2.30, P = .001). In addition to known risk factors, 30-day readmission for gastrointestinal-related complications following pancreatectomy independently predicts increased mortality. Additional studies are necessary to identify surgical, medical, and social factors contributing to EHR, as well as interventions aimed at decreasing postpancreatectomy morbidity and mortality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs). Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can only be demonstrated by an

Predictive factors of mortality within 30 days in patients with nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yoo Jin; Min, Bo Ram; Kim, Eun Soo; Park, Kyung Sik; Cho, Kwang Bum; Jang, Byoung Kuk; Chung, Woo Jin; Hwang, Jae Seok; Jeon, Seong Woo

2016-01-01

Nonvariceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (NVUGIB) is a common medical emergency that can be life threatening. This study evaluated predictive factors of 30-day mortality in patients with this condition. A prospective observational study was conducted at a single hospital between April 2010 and November 2012, and 336 patients with symptoms and signs of gastrointestinal bleeding were consecutively enrolled. Clinical characteristics and endoscopic findings were reviewed to identify potential factors associated with 30-day mortality. Overall, 184 patients were included in the study (men, 79.3%; mean age, 59.81 years), and 16 patients died within 30 days (8.7%). Multivariate analyses revealed that comorbidity of diabetes mellitus (DM) or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hypotension (systolic pressure < 90 mmHg) during hospitalization were significant predictive factors of 30-day mortality. Comorbidity of DM or metastatic malignancy, age ≥ 65 years, and hemodynamic instability during hospitalization were predictors of 30-day mortality in patients with NVUGIB. These results will help guide the management of patients with this condition.

Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold; Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela; Helmer, Hanns; Brugger, Peter C.

2011-01-01

Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

Fetal MRI for prediction of neonatal mortality following preterm premature rupture of the fetal membranes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Messerschmidt, Agnes; Sauer, Alexandra; Pollak, Arnold [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Pataraia, Anna; Kasprian, Gregor; Weber, Michael; Prayer, Daniela [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Radiology, Vienna (Austria); Helmer, Hanns [Medical University of Vienna, Department of Obstetrics and Maternal-Fetal Medicine, Vienna (Austria); Brugger, Peter C. [Medical University of Vienna, Center of Anatomy and Cell Biology, Vienna (Austria)

2011-11-15

Lung MRI volumetrics may be valuable for fetal assessment following early preterm premature rupture of the foetal membranes (pPROM). To evaluate the predictive value of MRI lung volumetrics after pPROM. Retrospective cohort study of 40 fetuses after pPROM in a large, tertiary, perinatal referral center. Fetuses underwent MRI lung volumetrics. Estimated lung volume was expressed as percentage of expected lung volume (our own normal references). Primary outcome was neonatal mortality due to respiratory distress before discharge from hospital. Gestational age range was 16-27 weeks. Estimated-to-expected lung volume was 73% in non-survivors and 102% in survivors (P < 0.05). There were no survivors with a lung volume less than 60% of expected. By logistic regression, mortality could be predicted with a sensitivity of 80%, specificity of 86% and accuracy of 85%. Fetal MR lung volumetrics may be useful for predicting mortality due to respiratory distress in children with early gestational pPROM. (orig.)

Mortality in former Olympic athletes: retrospective cohort analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zwiers, R; Zantvoord, F W A; van Bodegom, D; van der Ouderaa, F J G; Westendorp, R G J

2012-01-01

Objective To assess the mortality risk in subsequent years (adjusted for year of birth, nationality, and sex) of former Olympic athletes from disciplines with different levels of exercise intensity. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting Former Olympic athletes. Participants 9889 athletes (with a known age at death) who participated in the Olympic Games between 1896 and 1936, representing 43 types of disciplines with different levels of cardiovascular, static, and dynamic intensity exercise; high or low risk of bodily collision; and different levels of physical contact. Main outcome measure All cause mortality. Results Hazard ratios for mortality among athletes from disciplines with moderate cardiovascular intensity (1.01, 95% confidence interval 0.96 to 1.07) or high cardiovascular intensity (0.98, 0.92 to 1.04) were similar to those in athletes from disciplines with low cardiovascular intensity. The underlying static and dynamic components in exercise intensity showed similar non-significant results. Increased mortality was seen among athletes from disciplines with a high risk of bodily collision (hazard ratio 1.11, 1.06 to 1.15) and with high levels of physical contact (1.16, 1.11 to 1.22). In a multivariate analysis, the effect of high cardiovascular intensity remained similar (hazard ratio 1.05, 0.89 to 1.25); the increased mortality associated with high physical contact persisted (hazard ratio 1.13, 1.06 to 1.21), but that for bodily collision became non-significant (1.03, 0.98 to 1.09) as a consequence of its close relation with physical contact. Conclusions Among former Olympic athletes, engagement in disciplines with high intensity exercise did not bring a survival benefit compared with disciplines with low intensity exercise. Those who engaged in disciplines with high levels of physical contact had higher mortality than other Olympians later in life. PMID:23241269

Moving from measuring to predicting bycatch mortality: predicting the capture condition of a longline-caught pelagic shark

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derek Richard Dapp

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Incidental fisheries capture has been identified as having a major effect on shark populations throughout the world. However, factors that contribute to the mortality of shark bycatch during fisheries capture are not fully understood. Here, we investigated the effects of capture duration, sea surface temperature, and shark total length (snout to the tip of the upper caudal lobe on the physiology and condition of longline-caught bronze whalers, Carcharhinus brachyurus. Plasma lactate and potassium concentration had a positive linear relationship with capture duration, indicating that this species experiences increasing physiological challenges while on fishing gear. Additionally, we used stereotype logistic regression models to determine variables that could predict the capture condition of sharks (categorized as healthy, sluggish, or moribund or dead. In these models, elevated plasma lactate concentration, plasma potassium concentration, and capture duration increased the likelihood of C. brachyurus being captured in a sluggish condition or in a moribund or dead condition. After plasma lactate concentration exceeded 27.4 mmol/L, plasma potassium concentration exceeded 8.3 mmol/L, or capture durations exceeded 293 minutes, the majority of captured sharks (>50% were predicted to be moribund or dead. We recommend that a reduction in the amount of time longlines are left fishing (soak time will reduce immediate and post-release mortality in C. brachyurus bycatch and that our methods could be applied to identify causes of fisheries-induced mortality in future studies. The identification of operational, environmental, and biological variables contributing to poor condition will be necessary to implement conservation strategies that reduce mortality during capture.

Predicting objectively assessed physical activity from the content and regulation of exercise goals: evidence for a mediational model.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebire, Simon J; Standage, Martyn; Vansteenkiste, Maarten

2011-04-01

Grounded in self-determination theory (Deci & Ryan, 2000), the purpose of this work was to examine effects of the content and motivation of adults' exercise goals on objectively assessed moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). After reporting the content and motivation of their exercise goals, 101 adult participants (Mage = 38.79 years; SD = 11.5) wore an ActiGraph (GT1M) accelerometer for seven days. Accelerometer data were analyzed to provide estimates of engagement in MVPA and bouts of physical activity. Goal content did not directly predict behavioral engagement; however, mediation analysis revealed that goal content predicted behavior via autonomous exercise motivation. Specifically, intrinsic versus extrinsic goals for exercise had a positive indirect effect on average daily MVPA, average daily MVPA accumulated in 10-min bouts and the number of days on which participants performed 30 or more minutes of MVPA through autonomous motivation. These results support a motivational sequence in which intrinsic versus extrinsic exercise goals influence physical activity behavior because such goals are associated with more autonomous forms of exercise motivation.

Changes in corticospinal excitability during consolidation predict acute exercise-induced off-line gains in procedural memory

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ostadan, Fatemeh; Centeno, Carla; Daloze, Jean-Felix

2016-01-01

A single bout of cardiovascular exercise performed immediately after practicing a motor task improves the long-term retention of the skill through an optimization of memory consolidation. However, the specific brain mechanisms underlying the effects of acute cardiovascular exercise on procedural...... exercise correlated with the magnitude of off-line gains in skill level assessed in a retention test performed 8h after motor practice. A single bout of exercise modulates short-term neuroplasticity mechanisms subserving consolidation processes that predict off-line gains in procedural memory....... memory are poorly understood. We sought to determine if a single bout of exercise modifies corticospinal excitability (CSE) during the early stages of memory consolidation. In addition, we investigated if changes in CSE are associated with exercise-induced off-line gains in procedural memory...

The gamma gap predicts 4-year all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Ming; Xie, Linlin; Liu, Xiu; Hao, Qiukui; Jiang, Jiaojiao; Dong, Birong

2018-01-18

Recent studies have revealed the prognostic role of the gamma gap, the total serum proteins concentration minus the albumin concentration, for predicting all-cause mortality among adults. This study aims to investigate the relationship between the gamma gap and all-cause mortality among nonagenarians and centenarians via a secondary data analysis of a prospective observational study. The analysis included 801 participants (260 men and 541 women, mean age: 93.7 ± 3.5 years), 46 of which were lost at the 4-year follow-up. The mean gamma gap was 2.7 ± 0.5 g/dl. After adjusting for relevant confounders, the gamma gap was significantly associated with 4-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per 1-SD = 1.22, 95% confidential interval [CI]: 1.12-1.78). Using different cut-off points, the elevated gamma gap could be defined as ≥2.9, 3.0, 3.1, or 3.2 g/dl. The relevant HRs and 95% CIs of the elevated gamma gap for predicting mortality were 1.27 (1.12-1.90), 1.29 (1.03-1.78), 1.21 (1.23-1.66), and 1.26 (1.09-1.69), respectively. In conclusion, the gamma gap is an independent prognostic factor for long-term mortality in nonagenarians and centenarians. A value greater than or equal to 3.1 g/dl may define an elevated gamma gap, but further studies are required.

Prostate-specific antigen and long-term prediction of prostate cancer incidence and mortality in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ørsted, David Dynnes; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Jensen, Gorm B

2012-01-01

It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population.......It is largely unknown whether prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level at first date of testing predicts long-term risk of prostate cancer (PCa) incidence and mortality in the general population....

A review of logistic regression models used to predict post-fire tree mortality of western North American conifers

Science.gov (United States)

Travis Woolley; David C. Shaw; Lisa M. Ganio; Stephen. Fitzgerald

2012-01-01

Logistic regression models used to predict tree mortality are critical to post-fire management, planning prescribed bums and understanding disturbance ecology. We review literature concerning post-fire mortality prediction using logistic regression models for coniferous tree species in the western USA. We include synthesis and review of: methods to develop, evaluate...

GYM score: 30-day mortality predictive model in elderly patients attended in the emergency department with infection.

Science.gov (United States)

González Del Castillo, Juan; Escobar-Curbelo, Luis; Martínez-Ortíz de Zárate, Mikel; Llopis-Roca, Ferrán; García-Lamberechts, Jorge; Moreno-Cuervo, Álvaro; Fernández, Cristina; Martín-Sánchez, Francisco Javier

2017-06-01

To determine the validity of the classic sepsis criteria or systemic inflammatory response syndrome (heart rate, respiratory rate, temperature, and leukocyte count) and the modified sepsis criteria (systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria plus glycemia and altered mental status), and the validity of each of these variables individually to predict 30-day mortality, as well as develop a predictive model of 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in emergency departments (ED). A prospective cohort study including patients at least 75 years old attended in three Spanish university ED for infection during 2013 was carried out. Demographic variables and data on comorbidities, functional status, hemodynamic sepsis diagnosis variables, site of infection, and 30-day mortality were collected. A total of 293 patients were finally included, mean age 84.0 (SD 5.5) years, and 158 (53.9%) were men. Overall, 185 patients (64%) fulfilled the classic sepsis criteria and 224 patients (76.5%) fulfilled the modified sepsis criteria. The all-cause 30-day mortality was 13.0%. The area under the curve of the classic sepsis criteria was 0.585 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.488-0.681; P=0.106], 0.594 for modified sepsis criteria (95% CI: 0.502-0.685; P=0.075), and 0.751 (95% CI: 0.660-0.841; P20 bpm; Morbidity-Charlson index ≥3) to predict 30-day mortality, with statistically significant differences (P=0.004 and Pcapacity than the classic and the modified sepsis criteria to predict 30-day mortality in elderly patients attended for infection in the ED.

Low serum leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Scholze, Alexandra; Rattensperger, Dirk; Zidek, Walter

2007-01-01

Leptin, secreted from adipose tissue, regulates food intake, energy expenditure, and immune function. It is unknown whether leptin predicts mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease stage 5 on hemodialysis therapy....

Exercise aggravates cardiovascular risks and mortality in rats with disrupted nitric oxide pathway and treated with recombinant human erythropoietin.

Science.gov (United States)

Meziri, Fayçal; Binda, Delphine; Touati, Sabeur; Pellegrin, Maxime; Berthelot, Alain; Touyz, Rhian M; Laurant, Pascal

2011-08-01

Chronic administration of recombinant human erythropoietin (rHuEPO) can generate serious cardiovascular side effects such as arterial hypertension (HTA) in clinical and sport fields. It is hypothesized that nitric oxide (NO) can protect from noxious cardiovascular effects induced by chronic administration of rHuEPO. On this base, we studied the cardiovascular effects of chronic administration of rHuEPO in exercise-trained rats treated with an inhibitor of NO synthesis (L-NAME). Rats were treated or not with rHuEPO and/or L-NAME during 6 weeks. During the same period, rats were subjected to treadmill exercise. The blood pressure was measured weekly. Endothelial function of isolated aorta and small mesenteric arteries were studied and the morphology of the latter was investigated. L-NAME induced hypertension (197 ± 6 mmHg, at the end of the protocol). Exercise prevented the rise in blood pressure induced by L-NAME (170 ± 5 mmHg). However, exercise-trained rats treated with both rHuEPO and L-NAME developed severe hypertension (228 ± 9 mmHg). Furthermore, in these exercise-trained rats treated with rHuEPO/L-NAME, the acetylcholine-induced relaxation was markedly impaired in isolated aorta (60% of maximal relaxation) and small mesenteric arteries (53%). L-NAME hypertension induced an internal remodeling of small mesenteric arteries that was not modified by exercise, rHuEPO or both. Vascular ET-1 production was not increased in rHuEPO/L-NAME/training hypertensive rats. Furthermore, we observed that rHuEPO/L-NAME/training hypertensive rats died during the exercise or the recovery period (mortality 51%). Our findings suggest that the use of rHuEPO in sport, in order to improve physical performance, represents a high and fatal risk factor, especially with pre-existing cardiovascular risk.

Performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3 In Predicting Hospital Mortality In Emergency Intensive Care Unit

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Qing-Bian Ma

2017-01-01

Conclusions: The SAPS 3 score system exhibited satisfactory performance even superior to APACHE II in discrimination. In predicting hospital mortality, SAPS 3 did not exhibit good calibration and overestimated hospital mortality, which demonstrated that SAPS 3 needs improvement in the future.

Point-of-care testing on admission to the intensive care unit: lactate and glucose independently predict mortality.

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Martin, Jan; Blobner, Manfred; Busch, Raymonde; Moser, Norman; Kochs, Eberhard; Luppa, Peter B

2013-02-01

The aim of the study was to retrospectively investigate whether parameters of routine point-of-care testing (POCT) predict hospital mortality in critically ill surgical patients on admission to the intensive care unit (ICU). Arterial blood analyses of 1551 patients on admission to the adult surgical ICU of the Technical University Munich were reviewed. POCT was performed on a blood gas analyser. The association between acid-base status and mortality was evaluated. Metabolic acidosis was defined by base excess (BE) lactate >50% of BE, anion gap (AG)-acidosis by AG >16 mmol/L, hyperchloraemic acidosis by chloride >115 mmol/L. Metabolic alkalosis was defined by BE ≥3 mmol/L. Logistic regression analysis identified variables independently associated with mortality. Overall mortality was 8.8%. Mortality was greater in male patients (p=0.012). Mean age was greater in non-survivors (p55 mm Hg (mortality 23.1%). Three hundred and seventy-seven patients presented with acidosis (mortality 11.4%), thereof 163 patients with lactic acidosis (mortality 19%). Mortality for alkalosis (174 patients) was 12.1%. Mean blood glucose level for non-survivors was higher compared to survivors (plactate, glucose, age, male gender as independent predictors of mortality. Lactate and glucose on ICU admission independently predict mortality. BE and AG failed as prognostic markers. Lactic acidosis showed a high mortality rate implying that lactate levels should be obtained on ICU admission. Prevalence of hyperchloraemic acidosis was low. Metabolic alkalosis was associated with an increased mortality. Further studies on this disturbance and its attendant high mortality are warranted.

Short-term Prediction of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in the Czech Republic Based on Data from 1968-2014.

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Reissigová, Jindra; Zvolský, M.

2018-01-01

Roč. 26, č. 1 (2018), s. 10-15 ISSN 1210-7778 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : mortality * coronary heart diseases * short-term prediction * long-term prediction * national health registries Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Applied mathematics Impact factor: 0.682, year: 2016 https://cejph.szu.cz/artkey/cjp-201801-0002_short-term-prediction-of-coronary- heart -disease-mortality-in-the-czech-republic-based-on-data-from-1968-2014.php

Impact of Economic Conditions and Crises on Mortality and its Predictability.

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Bohk, Christina; Rau, Roland

To investigate how economic conditions and crises affect mortality and its predictability in industrialized countries, we review the related literature, and we forecast mortality developments in Spain, Hungary, and Russia-three countries which have recently undergone major transformation processes following the introduction of radical economic and political reforms. The results of our retrospective mortality forecasts from 1991 to 2009 suggest that our model can capture major changes in long-term mortality trends, and that the forecast errors it generates are usually smaller than those of other well-accepted models, like the Lee-Carter model and its coherent variant. This is because our approach is capable of modeling (1) dynamic shifts in survival improvements from younger to older ages over time, as well as (2) substantial changes in long-term trends by optionally complementing the extrapolated mortality trends in a country of interest with those of selected reference countries. However, the forecasting performance of our model is limited (like that of every model): e.g., if mortality becomes extremely volatile-as was the case in Russia after the dissolution of the Soviet Union-generating a precise forecast will depend more on luck than on methodology and expert judgment. In general, we conclude that, on their own, recent economic changes appear to have minor effects on life expectancy in industrialized countries, but that the effects of these changes are greater if they occur in conjunction with other major social and political changes.

Exaggerated blood pressure response to early stages of exercise stress testing and presence of hypertension.

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Schultz, Martin G; Picone, Dean S; Nikolic, Sonja B; Williams, Andrew D; Sharman, James E

2016-12-01

Exaggerated exercise blood pressure (EEBP) recorded during exercise testing at moderate-intensity is independently associated with cardiovascular mortality. It is hypothesized that EEBP may be indicative of underlying hypertension unnoticed by standard clinic (resting) BP measures (thus explaining increased mortality risk), but this has never been confirmed by association with hypertension defined using ambulatory BP monitoring, which was the aim of this study. Cross-sectional study. 100 consecutive patients free from coronary artery disease (aged 56±9 years, 72% male) underwent clinically indicated exercise stress testing. Exercise BP was recorded at each stage of the Bruce protocol. Presence of hypertension was defined as 24-hour systolic BP ≥130mmHg or daytime systolic BP ≥135mmHg. Exercise systolic BP at stage 1 and 2 of the test was significantly associated with the presence of hypertension (P130mmHg (AUC=0.752, 95% CI's 0.649-0.846, P150mmHg predicting hypertension independently of age, sex and in-clinic hypertension status (OR=4.83, 95% CI's 1.62-14.39, P=0.005). Irrespective of resting BP, systolic BP ≥150mmHg during early stages of the Bruce exercise stress test is associated with presence of hypertension. EEBP should be a warning signal to health/exercise professionals on the presence of hypertension and the need to provide follow up care to reduce cardiovascular risk. Copyright © 2016 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exercise Capacity and the Obesity Paradox in Heart Failure: The FIT (Henry Ford Exercise Testing) Project.

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McAuley, Paul A; Keteyian, Steven J; Brawner, Clinton A; Dardari, Zeina A; Al Rifai, Mahmoud; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H; Whelton, Seamus P; Blaha, Michael J

2018-05-03

To assess the influence of exercise capacity and body mass index (BMI) on 10-year mortality in patients with heart failure (HF) and to synthesize these results with those of previous studies. This large biracial sample included 774 men and women (mean age, 60±13 years; 372 [48%] black) with a baseline diagnosis of HF from the Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project. All patients completed a symptom-limited maximal treadmill stress test from January 1, 1991, through May 31, 2009. Patients were grouped by World Health Organization BMI categories for Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and stratified by exercise capacity (<4 and ≥4 metabolic equivalents [METs] of task). Associations of BMI and exercise capacity with all-cause mortality were assessed using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. During a mean follow-up of 10.1±4.6 years, 380 patients (49%) died. Kaplan-Meier survival plots revealed a significant positive association between BMI category and survival for exercise capacity less than 4 METs (log-rank, P=.05), but not greater than or equal to 4 METs (P=.76). In the multivariable-adjusted models, exercise capacity (per 1 MET) was inversely associated, but BMI was not associated, with all-cause mortality (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.85-0.94; P<.001 and hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.97-1.01; P=.16, respectively). Maximal exercise capacity modified the relationship between BMI and long-term survival in patients with HF, upholding the presence of an exercise capacity-obesity paradox dichotomy as observed over the short-term in previous studies. Copyright © 2018 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Blood eosinophil counts for the prediction of the severity of exercise-induced bronchospasm in asthma.

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Koh, Y I; Choi, S

2002-02-01

It has been suggested that airway eosinophilic inflammation is associated with the severity of exercise-induced bronchospasm (EIB). Blood eosinophils are known to be an indirect marker of airway inflammation in asthma. The aim of this study is to investigate that a simple and easy blood test for blood eosinphil counts may predict the severity of EIB in asthma. Seventy-seven men with perennial asthma (age range 18-23 years) were included. Lung function test, skin prick test, and blood tests for eosinophils counts and total IgE levels were performed. Methacholine bronchial provocation test and, 24 h later, free running test were carried out. EIB was defined as a 15% reduction or more in post-exercise FEV1 compared with pre-exercise FEV1 value. Atopy score was defined as a sum of mean wheal diameters to allergens. EIB was observed in 60 (78%) of 77 subjects. Asthmatics with EIB showed significantly increased percentages of eosinophils (P 700 microl(-1) (36.9 +/- 12.7%) had significantly greater maximal % fall in FEV1 after exercise than asthmatics with eosinophils of 350 microl(-1) yielded the specificity of 88% and positive predictive value of 93% for the presence of EIB. When a multiple regression analysis of maximal % fall in FEV1 according to log eosinophil counts, log PC20, log IgE and atopy score was performed, only blood eosinophil counts were significant factor contributing to the maximal % fall in FEV1 after exercise. These findings not only suggest that a simple blood test for eosinophils may be useful in the prediction of the severity of EIB, but also reinforce the view that airway eosinophilic inflammation may play a major role in EIB in asthma.

Left ventricular ejection fraction to predict early mortality in patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndromes.

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Bosch, Xavier; Théroux, Pierre

2005-08-01

Improvement in risk stratification of patients with non-ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is a gateway to a more judicious treatment. This study examines whether the routine determination of left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) adds significant prognostic information to currently recommended stratifiers. Several predictors of inhospital mortality were prospectively characterized in a registry study of 1104 consecutive patients, for whom an EF was determined, who were admitted for an ACS. Multiple regression models were constructed using currently recommended clinical, electrocardiographic, and blood marker stratifiers, and values of EF were incorporated into the models. Age, ST-segment shifts, elevation of cardiac markers, and the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score all predicted mortality (P model improved the prediction of mortality (C statistic 0.73 vs 0.67). The odds of death increased by a factor of 1.042 for each 1% decrement in EF. By receiver operating curves, an EF cutoff of 48% provided the best predictive value. Mortality rates were 3.3 times higher within each TIMI risk score stratum in patients with an EF of 48% or lower as compared with those with higher. The TIMI risk score predicts inhospital mortality in a broad population of patients with ACS. The further consideration of EF adds significant prognostic information.

Physical function was related to mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease and dialysis.

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Morishita, Shinichiro; Tsubaki, Atsuhiro; Shirai, Nobuyuki

2017-10-01

Previous studies have shown that exercise improves aerobic capacity, muscular functioning, cardiovascular function, walking capacity, and health-related quality of life (QOL) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and dialysis. Recently, additional studies have shown that higher physical activity contributes to survival and decreased mortality as well as physical function and QOL in patients with CKD and dialysis. Herein, we review the evidence that physical function and physical activity play an important role in mortality for patients with CKD and dialysis. During November 2016, Medline and Web of Science databases were searched for published English medical reports (without a time limit) using the terms "CKD" or "dialysis" and "mortality" in conjunction with "exercise capacity," "muscle strength," "activities of daily living (ADL)," "physical activity," and "exercise." Numerous studies suggest that higher exercise capacity, muscle strength, ADL, and physical activity contribute to lower mortality in patients with CKD and dialysis. Physical function is associated with mortality in patients with CKD and dialysis. Increasing physical function may decrease the mortality rate of patients with CKD and dialysis. Physicians and medical staff should recognize the importance of physical function in CKD and dialysis. In addition, exercise is associated with reduced mortality among patients with CKD and dialysis. © 2017 International Society for Hemodialysis.

Physical Inactivity and Mortality Risk

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Peter Kokkinos

2011-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years a plethora of epidemiologic evidence accumulated supports a strong, independent and inverse, association between physical activity and the fitness status of an individual and mortality in apparently healthy individuals and diseased populations. These health benefits are realized at relatively low fitness levels and increase with higher physical activity patterns or fitness status in a dose-response fashion. The risk reduction is at least in part attributed to the favorable effect of exercise or physical activity on the cardiovascular risk factors, namely, blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and obesity. In this review, we examine evidence from epidemiologic and interventional studies in support of the association between exercise and physical activity and health. In addition, we present the exercise effects on the aforementioned risk factors. Finally, we include select dietary approaches and their impact on risk factors and overall mortality risk.

Predictive Value of Cumulative Blood Pressure for All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events

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Wang, Yan Xiu; Song, Lu; Xing, Ai Jun; Gao, Ming; Zhao, Hai Yan; Li, Chun Hui; Zhao, Hua Ling; Chen, Shuo Hua; Lu, Cheng Zhi; Wu, Shou Ling

2017-02-01

The predictive value of cumulative blood pressure (BP) on all-cause mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (CCE) has hardly been studied. In this prospective cohort study including 52,385 participants from the Kailuan Group who attended three medical examinations and without CCE, the impact of cumulative systolic BP (cumSBP) and cumulative diastolic BP (cumDBP) on all-cause mortality and CCEs was investigated. For the study population, the mean (standard deviation) age was 48.82 (11.77) years of which 40,141 (76.6%) were male. The follow-up for all-cause mortality and CCEs was 3.96 (0.48) and 2.98 (0.41) years, respectively. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that for every 10 mm Hg·year increase in cumSBP and 5 mm Hg·year increase in cumDBP, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality were 1.013 (1.006, 1.021) and 1.012 (1.006, 1.018); for CCEs, 1.018 (1.010, 1.027) and 1.017 (1.010, 1.024); for stroke, 1.021 (1.011, 1.031) and 1.018 (1.010, 1.026); and for MI, 1.013 (0.996, 1.030) and 1.015 (1.000, 1.029). Using natural spline function analysis, cumSBP and cumDBP showed a J-curve relationship with CCEs; and a U-curve relationship with stroke (ischemic stroke and hemorrhagic stroke). Therefore, increases in cumSBP and cumDBP were predictive for all-cause mortality, CCEs, and stroke.

Incidence, Mortality, and Predictive Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Primary Biliary Cirrhosis

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Kenichi Hosonuma

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. The study aims to analyze in detail the incidence, mortality using the standardized incidence ratio (SIR, and standardized mortality ratio (SMR of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC in primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC, because no large case studies have focused on the detailed statistical analysis of them in Asia. Methods. The study cohorts were consecutively diagnosed at Gunma University and its affiliated hospitals. Age- or sex-specific annual cancer incidence and deaths were obtained from Japanese Cancer Registry and Death Registry as a reference for the comparison of SIR or SMR of HCC. Moreover, univariate analyses and multivariate analyses were performed to clarify predictive factors for the incidence of HCC. Results. The overall 179 patients were followed up for a median of 97 months. HCC had developed in 13 cases. SIR for HCC was 11.6 (95% confidence interval (CI, 6.2–19.8 and SMR for HCC was 11.2 (95% CI, 5.4–20.6 in overall patients. The serum albumin levels were a predictive factor for the incidence of HCC in overall patients. Conclusions. The incidence and mortality of HCC in PBC patients were significantly higher than those in Japanese general population. PBC patients with low serum albumin levels were populations at high risk for HCC.

Predicting hospital mortality among frequently readmitted patients: HSMR biased by readmission

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Kelder Johannes C

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Casemix adjusted in-hospital mortality is one of the measures used to improve quality of care. The adjustment currently used does not take into account the effects of readmission, because reliable data on readmission is not readily available through routinely collected databases. We have studied the impact of readmissions by linking admissions of the same patient, and as a result were able to compare hospital mortality among frequently, as opposed to, non-frequently readmitted patients. We also formulated a method to adjust for readmission for the calculation of hospital standardised mortality ratios (HSMRs. Methods We conducted a longitudinal retrospective analysis of routinely collected hospital data of six large non-university teaching hospitals in the Netherlands with casemix adjusted standardised mortality ratios ranging from 65 to 114 and a combined value of 93 over a five-year period. Participants concerned 240662 patients admitted 418566 times in total during the years 2003 - 2007. Predicted deaths by the HSMR model 2008 over a five-year period were compared with observed deaths. Results Numbers of readmissions per patient differ substantially between the six hospitals, up to a factor of 2. A large interaction was found between numbers of admissions per patient and HSMR-predicted risks. Observed deaths for frequently admitted patients were significantly lower than HSMR-predicted deaths, which could be explained by uncorrected factors surrounding readmissions. Conclusions Patients admitted more frequently show lower risks of dying on average per admission. This decline in risk is only partly detected by the current HSMR. Comparing frequently admitted patients to non-frequently admitted patients commits the constant risk fallacy and potentially lowers HSMRs of hospitals treating many frequently admitted patients and increases HSMRs of hospitals treating many non-frequently admitted patients. This misleading effect can

Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted

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Cecilie Røe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC. Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light, as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT. Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7 years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5 was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI.

Mortality and One-Year Functional Outcome in Elderly and Very Old Patients with Severe Traumatic Brain Injuries: Observed and Predicted

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Røe, Cecilie; Skandsen, Toril; Manskow, Unn; Ader, Tiina; Anke, Audny

2015-01-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate mortality and functional outcome in old and very old patients with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) and compare to the predicted outcome according to the internet based CRASH (Corticosteroid Randomization After Significant Head injury) model based prediction, from the Medical Research Council (MRC). Methods. Prospective, national multicenter study including patients with severe TBI ≥65 years. Predicted mortality and outcome were calculated based on clinical information (CRASH basic) (age, GCS score, and pupil reactivity to light), as well as with additional CT findings (CRASH CT). Observed 14-day mortality and favorable/unfavorable outcome according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale at one year was compared to the predicted outcome according to the CRASH models. Results. 97 patients, mean age 75 (SD 7) years, 64% men, were included. Two patients were lost to follow-up; 48 died within 14 days. The predicted versus the observed odds ratio (OR) for mortality was 2.65. Unfavorable outcome (GOSE < 5) was observed at one year follow-up in 72% of patients. The CRASH models predicted unfavorable outcome in all patients. Conclusion. The CRASH model overestimated mortality and unfavorable outcome in old and very old Norwegian patients with severe TBI. PMID:26688614

Symptom clusters predict mortality among dialysis patients in Norway: a prospective observational cohort study.

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Amro, Amin; Waldum, Bård; von der Lippe, Nanna; Brekke, Fredrik Barth; Dammen, Toril; Miaskowski, Christine; Os, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Patients with end-stage renal disease on dialysis have reduced survival rates compared with the general population. Symptoms are frequent in dialysis patients, and a symptom cluster is defined as two or more related co-occurring symptoms. The aim of this study was to explore the associations between symptom clusters and mortality in dialysis patients. In a prospective observational cohort study of dialysis patients (n = 301), Kidney Disease and Quality of Life Short Form and Beck Depression Inventory questionnaires were administered. To generate symptom clusters, principal component analysis with varimax rotation was used on 11 kidney-specific self-reported physical symptoms. A Beck Depression Inventory score of 16 or greater was defined as clinically significant depressive symptoms. Physical and mental component summary scores were generated from Short Form-36. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used for the survival analysis, Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank statistics were applied to compare survival rates between the groups. Three different symptom clusters were identified; one included loading of several uremic symptoms. In multivariate analyses and after adjustment for health-related quality of life and depressive symptoms, the worst perceived quartile of the "uremic" symptom cluster independently predicted all-cause mortality (hazard ratio 2.47, 95% CI 1.44-4.22, P = 0.001) compared with the other quartiles during a follow-up period that ranged from four to 52 months. The two other symptom clusters ("neuromuscular" and "skin") or the individual symptoms did not predict mortality. Clustering of uremic symptoms predicted mortality. Assessing co-occurring symptoms rather than single symptoms may help to identify dialysis patients at high risk for mortality. Copyright © 2015 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predictive Factors for Mortality and Morbidity of Ruptured Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm Repair

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Manabu Shiraishi

2012-04-01

Conclusions: Emergency open repair can be safely performed in patients for infrarenal rAAA. In particular, we identified specific independent predictive factors of clinical examination and laboratory studies for mortality, major morbidity and renal insufficiency. [Arch Clin Exp Surg 2012; 1(2.000: 94-101

Diagnostic performance of initial serum albumin level for predicting in-hospital mortality among aspiration pneumonia patients.

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Kim, Hyosun; Jo, Sion; Lee, Jae Baek; Jin, Youngho; Jeong, Taeoh; Yoon, Jaechol; Lee, Jeong Moon; Park, Boyoung

2018-01-01

The predictive value of serum albumin in adult aspiration pneumonia patients remains unknown. Using data collected during a 3-year retrospective cohort of hospitalized adult patients with aspiration pneumonia, we evaluated the predictive value of serum albumin level at ED presentation for in-hospital mortality. 248 Patients were enrolled; of these, 51 cases died (20.6%). The mean serum albumin level was 3.4±0.7g/dL and serum albumin levels were significantly lower in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group (3.0±0.6g/dL vs. 3.5±0.6g/dL). In the multivariable logistic regression model, albumin was associated with in-hospital mortality significantly (adjusted odds ratio 0.30, 95% confidential interval (CI) 0.16-0.57). The area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) for in-hospital survival was 0.72 (95% CI 0.64-0.80). The Youden index was 3.2g/dL and corresponding sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive and negative likelihood ratio were 68.6%, 66.5%, 34.7%, 89.1%, 2.05 and 0.47, respectively. High sensitivity (98.0%) was shown at albumin level of 4.0g/dL and high specificity (94.9%) was shown at level of 2.5g/dL. Initial serum albumin levels were independently associated with in-hospital mortality among adult patients hospitalized with aspiration pneumonia and demonstrated fair discriminative performance in the prediction of in-hospital mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Survey the effect of aerobic exercise on aerobic capacity in patients with coronary artery disease (cad)

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Kalyani, M. N.; Ebadi, A.

2007-01-01

Increased aerobic exercise capacity appears to reduce both all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. Physical exercise to improve maximal oxygen consumption (VO/sub 2max/) is thus strongly recommended, however evidence regarding the most efficient training intensity for patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) is still lacking. The purpose of this randomized study was to assess the effects of aerobic exercise for increasing VO/sub 2max/ in stable CAD-patients. Thirty stable CAD-patients were randomized to supervised walking 30 min three times a week for 10 weeks. Before and after training VO/sub 2max/ was predicted from Bruce treadmill test. Before training VO/sub 2max/ was 35.2+-4.32 ml/kg/min and after training the mean VO/sub 2max/ was 43.1+-3.4 ml/kg/min. This difference was significant (p<0.05). Aerobic exercise is effective for increasing VO/sub 2max/ in stable CAD-patients. As VO/sub 2max/ seems to reflect a continuum between health and cardiovascular disease and death, the present data may be useful in designing effective training programmes for improved health in the future. (author)

Exercise Capacity and Mortality in Patients with Ischemic Left Ventricular Dysfunction Randomized to Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery or Medical Therapy: An Analysis From the Surgical Treatment for Ischemic Heart Failure (STICH) Trial

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Stewart, Ralph; Szalewska, Dominika; She, Lilin; Lee, Kerry L.; Drazner, Mark H.; Lubiszewska, Barbara; Kosevic, Dragana; Ruengsakulrach, Permyos; Nicolau, José C.; Coutu, Benoit; Choudhary, Shiv K.; Mark, Daniel B.; Cleland, John G.F.; Piña, Ileana L.; Velazquez, Eric J.; Rynkiewicz, Andrzej; White, Harvey

2014-01-01

Objective To assess the prognostic significance of exercise capacity in patients with ischemic left ventricular (LV) dysfunction eligible for coronary artery bypass surgery (CABG). Background Poor exercise capacity is associated with mortality, but it is not known how this influences the benefits and risks of CABG compared to medical therapy. Methods In an exploratory analysis physical activity was assessed by questionnaire and 6-minute walk test in 1,212 patients before randomization to CABG (n=610) or medical management (n=602) in the STICH trial. Mortality (n=462) was compared by treatment allocation during 56 (IQR 48 to 68) months follow-up for subjects able (n=682) and unable (n=530) to walk 300m in 6 minutes and with less (Physical Ability Score >55, n= 749) and more (PAS ≤55, n=433) limitation by dyspnea or fatigue. Results Compared to medical therapy mortality was lower for patients randomized to CABG who walked ≥300m (HR 0.77, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.99, p=0.038) and those with a PAS >55 (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.62 to 1.01, p=0.061). Patients unable to walk 300m or with a PAS ≤55 had higher mortality during the first 60 days with CABG (HR 3.24, 95% CI 1.64 to 6.83, p=0.002) and no significant benefit from CABG during total follow-up (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.19, p=0.626, interaction p=0.167). Conclusion These observations suggest that patients with ischemic LV dysfunction and poor exercise capacity have increased early risk, and similar 5 year mortality with CABG compared to medical therapy, while those with better exercise capacity have improved survival with CABG. PMID:25023813

Prospective evaluation of a new protocol for the provisional use of perfusion imaging with exercise stress testing

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Duvall, W.L. [Hartford Hospital, Division of Cardiology (Henry Low Heart Center), Hartford, CT (United States); Mount Sinai Medical Center, Division of Cardiology (Mount Sinai Heart), New York, NY (United States); Savino, John A.; Levine, Elliot J.; Croft, Lori B.; Henzlova, Milena J. [Mount Sinai Medical Center, Division of Cardiology (Mount Sinai Heart), New York, NY (United States); Hermann, Luke K. [Mount Sinai Medical Center, Department of Emergency Medicine, New York, NY (United States)

2014-11-04

Previous literature suggests that myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) adds little to the prognosis of patients who exercise >10 metabolic equivalents (METs) during stress testing. With this in mind, we prospectively tested a provisional injection protocol in emergency department (ED) patients presenting for the evaluation of chest pain in which a patient would not receive an injection of radioisotope if adequate exercise was achieved without symptoms and a negative ECG response. All patients who presented to the ED over a 5-year period who were referred for stress testing as part of their ED evaluation were included. Patients considered for a provisional protocol were: exercise stress, age <65 years, no known coronary artery disease, and an interpretable rest ECG. Criteria for not injecting included a maximal predicted heart rate ≥85 %, ≥10 METs of exercise, no anginal symptoms during stress, and no ECG changes. Groups were compared based on stress test results, all-cause and cardiac mortality, follow-up cardiac testing, subsequent revascularization, and cost. A total of 965 patients were eligible with 192 undergoing exercise-only and 773 having perfusion imaging. After 41.6 ± 19.6 months of follow-up, all-cause mortality was similar in the exercise-only versus the exercise plus imaging group (2.6 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.59). There were no cardiac deaths in the exercise-only group. At 1 year there was no difference in the number of repeat functional stress tests (1.6 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.43), fewer angiograms (0 % vs. 4.0 %, p = 0.002), and a significantly lower cost (65 ± 332 vs 506 ± 1,991, p = 0.002; values are in US dollars) in the exercise-only group. The radiation exposure in the exercise plus imaging group was 8.4 ± 2.1 mSv. A provisional injection protocol has a very low mortality, few follow-up diagnostic tests, and lower cost compared to standard imaging protocols. If adopted it would decrease radiation exposure, save time and decrease health-care costs

Prospective evaluation of a new protocol for the provisional use of perfusion imaging with exercise stress testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duvall, W.L.; Savino, John A.; Levine, Elliot J.; Croft, Lori B.; Henzlova, Milena J.; Hermann, Luke K.

2015-01-01

Previous literature suggests that myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) adds little to the prognosis of patients who exercise >10 metabolic equivalents (METs) during stress testing. With this in mind, we prospectively tested a provisional injection protocol in emergency department (ED) patients presenting for the evaluation of chest pain in which a patient would not receive an injection of radioisotope if adequate exercise was achieved without symptoms and a negative ECG response. All patients who presented to the ED over a 5-year period who were referred for stress testing as part of their ED evaluation were included. Patients considered for a provisional protocol were: exercise stress, age <65 years, no known coronary artery disease, and an interpretable rest ECG. Criteria for not injecting included a maximal predicted heart rate ≥85 %, ≥10 METs of exercise, no anginal symptoms during stress, and no ECG changes. Groups were compared based on stress test results, all-cause and cardiac mortality, follow-up cardiac testing, subsequent revascularization, and cost. A total of 965 patients were eligible with 192 undergoing exercise-only and 773 having perfusion imaging. After 41.6 ± 19.6 months of follow-up, all-cause mortality was similar in the exercise-only versus the exercise plus imaging group (2.6 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.59). There were no cardiac deaths in the exercise-only group. At 1 year there was no difference in the number of repeat functional stress tests (1.6 % vs. 2.1 %, p = 0.43), fewer angiograms (0 % vs. 4.0 %, p = 0.002), and a significantly lower cost (65 ± 332 vs 506 ± 1,991, p = 0.002; values are in US dollars) in the exercise-only group. The radiation exposure in the exercise plus imaging group was 8.4 ± 2.1 mSv. A provisional injection protocol has a very low mortality, few follow-up diagnostic tests, and lower cost compared to standard imaging protocols. If adopted it would decrease radiation exposure, save time and decrease health-care costs

External validation of a biomarker and clinical prediction model for hospital mortality in acute respiratory distress syndrome.

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Zhao, Zhiguo; Wickersham, Nancy; Kangelaris, Kirsten N; May, Addison K; Bernard, Gordon R; Matthay, Michael A; Calfee, Carolyn S; Koyama, Tatsuki; Ware, Lorraine B

2017-08-01

Mortality prediction in ARDS is important for prognostication and risk stratification. However, no prediction models have been independently validated. A combination of two biomarkers with age and APACHE III was superior in predicting mortality in the NHLBI ARDSNet ALVEOLI trial. We validated this prediction tool in two clinical trials and an observational cohort. The validation cohorts included 849 patients from the NHLBI ARDSNet Fluid and Catheter Treatment Trial (FACTT), 144 patients from a clinical trial of sivelestat for ARDS (STRIVE), and 545 ARDS patients from the VALID observational cohort study. To evaluate the performance of the prediction model, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), model discrimination, and calibration were assessed, and recalibration methods were applied. The biomarker/clinical prediction model performed well in all cohorts. Performance was better in the clinical trials with an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI 0.70-0.79) in FACTT, compared to 0.72 (95% CI 0.67-0.77) in VALID, a more heterogeneous observational cohort. The AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.70-0.76) when FACTT and VALID were combined. We validated a mortality prediction model for ARDS that includes age, APACHE III, surfactant protein D, and interleukin-8 in a variety of clinical settings. Although the model performance as measured by AUC was lower than in the original model derivation cohort, the biomarker/clinical model still performed well and may be useful for risk assessment for clinical trial enrollment, an issue of increasing importance as ARDS mortality declines, and better methods are needed for selection of the most severely ill patients for inclusion.

Hematoma Shape, Hematoma Size, Glasgow Coma Scale Score and ICH Score: Which Predicts the 30-Day Mortality Better for Intracerebral Hematoma?

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Wang, Chih-Wei; Liu, Yi-Jui; Lee, Yi-Hsiung; Hueng, Dueng-Yuan; Fan, Hueng-Chuen; Yang, Fu-Chi; Hsueh, Chun-Jen; Kao, Hung-Wen; Juan, Chun-Jung; Hsu, Hsian-He

2014-01-01

Purpose To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH) score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality. Materials and Methods This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA) and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC) were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018), 0.715 (P = 0.0008) (by ABC/2) to 0.738 (P = 0.0002) (by CAVA), 0.877 (Phematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score. PMID:25029592

Habitual exercise instigation (vs. execution) predicts healthy adults' exercise frequency

OpenAIRE

Phillips, L. Alison; Gardner, Benjamin

2016-01-01

Objective: Habit is thought to be conducive to health behavior maintenance, because habits prompt behavior with minimal cognitive resources. The precise role of habit in determining complex behavioral sequences, such as exercise, has been underresearched. It is possible that the habit process may initiate a behavioral sequence (instigation habit) or that, after instigation, movement through the sequence is automated (execution habit). We hypothesized that exercise instigation habit can be emp...

Exercise at the Extremes: The Amount of Exercise to Reduce Cardiovascular Events.

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Eijsvogels, Thijs M H; Molossi, Silvana; Lee, Duck-Chul; Emery, Michael S; Thompson, Paul D

2016-01-26

Habitual physical activity and regular exercise training improve cardiovascular health and longevity. A physically active lifestyle is, therefore, a key aspect of primary and secondary prevention strategies. An appropriate volume and intensity are essential to maximally benefit from exercise interventions. This document summarizes available evidence on the relationship between the exercise volume and risk reductions in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, the risks and benefits of moderate- versus high-intensity exercise interventions are compared. Findings are presented for the general population and cardiac patients eligible for cardiac rehabilitation. Finally, the controversy of excessive volumes of exercise in the athletic population is discussed. Copyright © 2016 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Low plasma arginine:asymmetric dimethyl arginine ratios predict mortality after intracranial aneurysm rupture

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Staalsø, Jonatan Myrup; Bergström, Anita; Edsen, Troels

2013-01-01

Asymmetrical dimethylarginine (ADMA), an endogenous inhibitor of nitric oxide synthases, predicts mortality in cardiovascular disease and has been linked to cerebral vasospasm after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). In this prospective study, we assessed whether circulating ADMA, arginine...

Serial evaluation of the MODS, SOFA and LOD scores to predict ICU mortality in mixed critically ill patients.

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Khwannimit, Bodin

2008-09-01

To perform a serial assessment and compare ability in predicting the intensive care unit (ICU) mortality of the multiple organ dysfunction score (MODS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) and logistic organ dysfunction (LOD) score. The data were collected prospectively on consecutive ICU admissions over a 24-month period at a tertiary referral university hospital. The MODS, SOFA, and LOD scores were calculated on initial and repeated every 24 hrs. Two thousand fifty four patients were enrolled in the present study. The maximum and delta-scores of all the organ dysfunction scores correlated with ICU mortality. The maximum score of all models had better ability for predicting ICU mortality than initial or delta score. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for maximum scores was 0.892 for the MODS, 0.907 for the SOFA, and 0.92for the LOD. No statistical difference existed between all maximum scores and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score. Serial assessment of organ dysfunction during the ICU stay is reliable with ICU mortality. The maximum scores is the best discrimination comparable with APACHE II score in predicting ICU mortality.

Relationships among adolescents' weight perceptions, exercise goals, exercise motivation, quality of life and leisure-time exercise behaviour: a self-determination theory approach.

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Gillison, F B; Standage, M; Skevington, S M

2006-12-01

Exercise has an important role to play in the prevention of child and adolescent obesity. Recent school-based interventions have struggled to achieve meaningful and lasting changes to exercise levels. Theorists have suggested that this may, in part, be due to the failure to incorporate psychosocial mediators as they relate to behaviour change. Using a sample of 580 British schoolchildren, a model grounded in self-determination theory was explored to examine the effects of exercise goals on exercise motivation, leisure-time exercise behaviour and quality of life (QoL). Results of structural equation modelling revealed that adolescents perceiving themselves to be overweight and pressurized to lose weight, endorsed extrinsic weight-related goals for exercise. Extrinsic goals negatively predicted, whereas intrinsic goals positively predicted, self-determined motivation, which in turn positively predicted QoL and exercise behaviour. Furthermore, self-determined motivation partially mediated the effects of exercise goals on reported exercise behaviour and QoL. Multi-sample invariance testing revealed the proposed model to be largely invariant across gender. Results suggest that holding extrinsic exercise goals could compromise exercise participation levels and QoL. A role for teachers and parents is proposed with the aim of orienting young people towards intrinsic goals in an attempt to enhance future exercise behaviour and QoL.

Predicting exercise adherence in cancer patients and survivors: a systematic review and meta-analysis of motivational and behavioural factors.

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Husebø, Anne M Lunde; Dyrstad, Sindre M; Søreide, Jon A; Bru, Edvin

2013-01-01

To examine research findings regarding predictors of adherence to exercise programmes in cancer populations. Cancer patients are advised to participate in daily exercise. Whether they comply with the recommendations for physical activity or not remains unclear. A systematic review and meta-analysis. Empirical articles published in English between 1995 and 2011 were searched in electronic databases and in reference lists, using the search terms 'adherence', 'predictors', 'exercise', and 'cancer' in varying combinations. Twelve of 541 screened abstracts met the inclusion criteria. The included studies' eligibility considering predictors of exercise adherence were reviewed. A quality assessment process evaluating the studies methodological quality was performed. Eight of the reviewed studies were considered eligible for a meta-analysis involving Pearson's r correlations. Exercise stage of change, derived from the transtheoretical model of behaviour change (TTM) was found to be statistically significant and a strong predictor of exercise adherence. In addition, the theory of planned behaviour (TPB) construct; intention to engage in a health-changing behaviour and perceived behavioural control, demonstrated significant correlations with exercise adherence. The review identified that both the TPB and the TTM frameworks include aspects that predicts exercise adherence in cancer patients, and thus contributes to the understanding of motivational factors of change in exercise behaviour in cancer populations. However, the strengths of predictions were relatively weak. More research is needed to identify predictors of greater importance. Surveying the patients' readiness and intention to initiate and maintain exercise levels, as well as tailoring exercise programmes to individual needs may be important for nurses in order to help patients meet exercise guidelines and stay active. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The New York State risk score for predicting in-hospital/30-day mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention.

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Hannan, Edward L; Farrell, Louise Szypulski; Walford, Gary; Jacobs, Alice K; Berger, Peter B; Holmes, David R; Stamato, Nicholas J; Sharma, Samin; King, Spencer B

2013-06-01

This study sought to develop a percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) risk score for in-hospital/30-day mortality. Risk scores are simplified linear scores that provide clinicians with quick estimates of patients' short-term mortality rates for informed consent and to determine the appropriate intervention. Earlier PCI risk scores were based on in-hospital mortality. However, for PCI, a substantial percentage of patients die within 30 days of the procedure after discharge. New York's Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Reporting System was used to develop an in-hospital/30-day logistic regression model for patients undergoing PCI in 2010, and this model was converted into a simple linear risk score that estimates mortality rates. The score was validated by applying it to 2009 New York PCI data. Subsequent analyses evaluated the ability of the score to predict complications and length of stay. A total of 54,223 patients were used to develop the risk score. There are 11 risk factors that make up the score, with risk factor scores ranging from 1 to 9, and the highest total score is 34. The score was validated based on patients undergoing PCI in the previous year, and accurately predicted mortality for all patients as well as patients who recently suffered a myocardial infarction (MI). The PCI risk score developed here enables clinicians to estimate in-hospital/30-day mortality very quickly and quite accurately. It accurately predicts mortality for patients undergoing PCI in the previous year and for MI patients, and is also moderately related to perioperative complications and length of stay. Copyright © 2013 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of leucocyte progression for one-week mortality on acutely admitted medical patients to the emergency department

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Brabrand, Mikkel; Soltau, Matilde Røgilds

2018-01-01

female. Using logistic regression, we found significantly lower one-week mortality with falling leucocyte count progression, even when controlling for confounders. A decreasing leucocyte count had a sensitivity for one-week mortality of 65%, specificity of 62%, positive predictive value of 4......%, and negative predictive value of 99%. Difference in admission to the intensive care unit was non-significant between the three groups. Difference in length of stay was significant, but with one day difference, the clinical significance is questionable. CONCLUSION: Leucocyte count progression is not sensitive...... enough to predict one-week mortality, nor specific enough to discount it. It is important for physicians to be aware of this to avoid faulty assessments based on imprecise assumptions....

Poor caregiver mental health predicts mortality of patients with neurodegenerative disease.

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Lwi, Sandy J; Ford, Brett Q; Casey, James J; Miller, Bruce L; Levenson, Robert W

2017-07-11

Dementia and other neurodegenerative diseases cause profound declines in functioning; thus, many patients require caregivers for assistance with daily living. Patients differ greatly in how long they live after disease onset, with the nature and severity of the disease playing an important role. Caregiving can also be extremely stressful, and many caregivers experience declines in mental health. In this study, we investigated the role that caregiver mental health plays in patient mortality. In 176 patient-caregiver dyads, we found that worse caregiver mental health predicted greater patient mortality even when accounting for key risk factors in patients (i.e., diagnosis, age, sex, dementia severity, and patient mental health). These findings highlight the importance of caring for caregivers as well as patients when attempting to improve patients' lives.

Risk Prediction of One-Year Mortality in Patients with Cardiac Arrhythmias Using Random Survival Forest

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fen Miao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Existing models for predicting mortality based on traditional Cox proportional hazard approach (CPH often have low prediction accuracy. This paper aims to develop a clinical risk model with good accuracy for predicting 1-year mortality in cardiac arrhythmias patients using random survival forest (RSF, a robust approach for survival analysis. 10,488 cardiac arrhythmias patients available in the public MIMIC II clinical database were investigated, with 3,452 deaths occurring within 1-year followups. Forty risk factors including demographics and clinical and laboratory information and antiarrhythmic agents were analyzed as potential predictors of all-cause mortality. RSF was adopted to build a comprehensive survival model and a simplified risk model composed of 14 top risk factors. The built comprehensive model achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.81 measured by c-statistic with 10-fold cross validation. The simplified risk model also achieved a good accuracy of 0.799. Both results outperformed traditional CPH (which achieved a c-statistic of 0.733 for the comprehensive model and 0.718 for the simplified model. Moreover, various factors are observed to have nonlinear impact on cardiac arrhythmias prognosis. As a result, RSF based model which took nonlinearity into account significantly outperformed traditional Cox proportional hazard model and has great potential to be a more effective approach for survival analysis.

Hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale score and ICH score: which predicts the 30-day mortality better for intracerebral hematoma?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chih-Wei Wang

Full Text Available To investigate the performance of hematoma shape, hematoma size, Glasgow coma scale (GCS score, and intracerebral hematoma (ICH score in predicting the 30-day mortality for ICH patients. To examine the influence of the estimation error of hematoma size on the prediction of 30-day mortality.This retrospective study, approved by a local institutional review board with written informed consent waived, recruited 106 patients diagnosed as ICH by non-enhanced computed tomography study. The hemorrhagic shape, hematoma size measured by computer-assisted volumetric analysis (CAVA and estimated by ABC/2 formula, ICH score and GCS score was examined. The predicting performance of 30-day mortality of the aforementioned variables was evaluated. Statistical analysis was performed using Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests, paired t test, nonparametric test, linear regression analysis, and binary logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristics curves were plotted and areas under curve (AUC were calculated for 30-day mortality. A P value less than 0.05 was considered as statistically significant.The overall 30-day mortality rate was 15.1% of ICH patients. The hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH score, and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality for ICH patients, with an AUC of 0.692 (P = 0.0018, 0.715 (P = 0.0008 (by ABC/2 to 0.738 (P = 0.0002 (by CAVA, 0.877 (P<0.0001 (by ABC/2 to 0.882 (P<0.0001 (by CAVA, and 0.912 (P<0.0001, respectively.Our study shows that hematoma shape, hematoma size, ICH scores and GCS score all significantly predict the 30-day mortality in an increasing order of AUC. The effect of overestimation of hematoma size by ABC/2 formula in predicting the 30-day mortality could be remedied by using ICH score.

Qigong exercise with concentration predicts increased health.

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Jouper, John; Hassmén, Peter; Johansson, Mattias

2006-01-01

Regular physical activity has many positive health effects. Despite this, approximately 50% of all adults are not exercising enough to enjoy better health and may, therefore, need an alternative to vigorous physical exercise. Qigong offers a gentle way to exercise the body. A questionnaire sample of 253 participants was collected and correlations with the variable health-now were analyzed. Results showed that health-now was positively correlated with number of completed qigong courses (p exercise thereby seems to offer a viable alternative to other more vigorous physical activities when wellness is the primary goal. When interpreted using self-determination theory, qigong seems to satisfy needs related to autonomy, competence and relatedness, thereby, primarily attracting individuals who are intrinsically motivated.

The Surgical Mortality Probability Model: derivation and validation of a simple risk prediction rule for noncardiac surgery.

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Glance, Laurent G; Lustik, Stewart J; Hannan, Edward L; Osler, Turner M; Mukamel, Dana B; Qian, Feng; Dick, Andrew W

2012-04-01

To develop a 30-day mortality risk index for noncardiac surgery that can be used to communicate risk information to patients and guide clinical management at the "point-of-care," and that can be used by surgeons and hospitals to internally audit their quality of care. Clinicians rely on the Revised Cardiac Risk Index to quantify the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery. Because mortality from noncardiac causes accounts for many perioperative deaths, there is also a need for a simple bedside risk index to predict 30-day all-cause mortality after noncardiac surgery. Retrospective cohort study of 298,772 patients undergoing noncardiac surgery during 2005 to 2007 using the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database. The 9-point S-MPM (Surgical Mortality Probability Model) 30-day mortality risk index was derived empirically and includes three risk factors: ASA (American Society of Anesthesiologists) physical status, emergency status, and surgery risk class. Patients with ASA physical status I, II, III, IV or V were assigned either 0, 2, 4, 5, or 6 points, respectively; intermediate- or high-risk procedures were assigned 1 or 2 points, respectively; and emergency procedures were assigned 1 point. Patients with risk scores less than 5 had a predicted risk of mortality less than 0.50%, whereas patients with a risk score of 5 to 6 had a risk of mortality between 1.5% and 4.0%. Patients with a risk score greater than 6 had risk of mortality more than 10%. S-MPM exhibited excellent discrimination (C statistic, 0.897) and acceptable calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 13.0, P = 0.023) in the validation data set. Thirty-day mortality after noncardiac surgery can be accurately predicted using a simple and accurate risk score based on information readily available at the bedside. This risk index may play a useful role in facilitating shared decision making, developing and implementing risk

Mortality prediction to hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia: PO2 /FiO2 combined lymphocyte count is the answer.

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Shi, Shu Jing; Li, Hui; Liu, Meng; Liu, Ying Mei; Zhou, Fei; Liu, Bo; Qu, Jiu Xin; Cao, Bin

2017-05-01

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) severity scores perform well in predicting mortality of CAP patients, but their applicability in influenza pneumonia is powerless. The aim of our research was to test the efficiency of PO 2 /FiO 2 and CAP severity scores in predicting mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission with influenza pneumonia patients. We reviewed all patients with positive influenza virus RNA detection in Beijing Chao-Yang Hospital during the 2009-2014 influenza seasons. Outpatients, inpatients with no pneumonia and incomplete data were excluded. We used receiver operating characteristic curves (ROCs) to verify the accuracy of severity scores or indices as mortality predictors in the study patients. Among 170 hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia, 30 (17.6%) died. Among those who were classified as low-risk (predicted mortality 0.1%-2.1%) by pneumonia severity index (PSI) or confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, age ≥65 year (CURB-65), the actual mortality ranged from 5.9 to 22.1%. Multivariate logistic regression indicated that hypoxia (PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250) and lymphopenia (peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia confirmed a similar pattern and PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count was also the best predictor for predicting ICU admission. In conclusion, we found that PO 2 /FiO 2 combined lymphocyte count is simple and reliable predictor of hospitalized patients with influenza pneumonia in predicting mortality and ICU admission. When PO 2 /FiO 2  ≤ 250 or peripheral blood lymphocyte count pneumonia. © 2015 The Authors. The Clinical Respiratory Journal published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variation in Annual Volume at a University Hospital Does Not Predict Mortality for Pancreatic Resections

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Rita A. Mukhtar

2008-01-01

Full Text Available Annual volume of pancreatic resections has been shown to affect mortality rates, prompting recommendations to regionalize these procedures to high-volume hospitals. Implementation has been difficult, given the paucity of high-volume centers and the logistical hardships facing patients. Some studies have shown that low-volume hospitals achieve good outcomes as well, suggesting that other factors are involved. We sought to determine whether variations in annual volume affected patient outcomes in 511 patients who underwent pancreatic resections at the University of California, San Francisco between 1990 and 2005. We compared postoperative mortality and complication rates between low, medium, or high volume years, designated by the number of resections performed, adjusting for patient characteristics. Postoperative mortality rates did not differ between high volume years and medium/low volume years. As annual hospital volume of pancreatic resections may not predict outcome, identification of actual predictive factors may allow low-volume centers to achieve excellent outcomes.

Comparison of the performance of the CMS Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) risk adjuster with the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting mortality.

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Li, Pengxiang; Kim, Michelle M; Doshi, Jalpa A

2010-08-20

The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) has implemented the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Category (CMS-HCC) model to risk adjust Medicare capitation payments. This study intends to assess the performance of the CMS-HCC risk adjustment method and to compare it to the Charlson and Elixhauser comorbidity measures in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality in Medicare beneficiaries. The study used the 2005-2006 Chronic Condition Data Warehouse (CCW) 5% Medicare files. The primary study sample included all community-dwelling fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries with a hospital admission between January 1st, 2006 and June 30th, 2006. Additionally, four disease-specific samples consisting of subgroups of patients with principal diagnoses of congestive heart failure (CHF), stroke, diabetes mellitus (DM), and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) were also selected. Four analytic files were generated for each sample by extracting inpatient and/or outpatient claims for each patient. Logistic regressions were used to compare the methods. Model performance was assessed using the c-statistic, the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and their 95% confidence intervals estimated using bootstrapping. The CMS-HCC had statistically significant higher c-statistic and lower AIC and BIC values than the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality across all samples in analytic files that included claims from the index hospitalization. Exclusion of claims for the index hospitalization generally led to drops in model performance across all methods with the highest drops for the CMS-HCC method. However, the CMS-HCC still performed as well or better than the other two methods. The CMS-HCC method demonstrated better performance relative to the Charlson and Elixhauser methods in predicting in-hospital and six-month mortality. The CMS-HCC model is preferred over the Charlson and Elixhauser methods

Pediatric Exercise Testing: Value and Implications of Peak Oxygen Uptake

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Paolo T. Pianosi

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Peak oxygen uptake (peak V ˙ O 2 measured by clinical exercise testing is the benchmark for aerobic fitness. Aerobic fitness, estimated from maximal treadmill exercise, is a predictor of mortality in adults. Peak V ˙ O 2 was shown to predict longevity in patients aged 7–35 years with cystic fibrosis over 25 years ago. A surge of exercise studies in young adults with congenital heart disease over the past decade has revealed significant prognostic information. Three years ago, the first clinical trial in children with pulmonary arterial hypertension used peak V ˙ O 2 as an endpoint that likewise delivered clinically relevant data. Cardiopulmonary exercise testing provides clinicians with biomarkers and clinical outcomes, and researchers with novel insights into fundamental biological mechanisms reflecting an integrated physiological response hidden at rest. Momentum from these pioneering observations in multiple disease states should impel clinicians to employ similar methods in other patient populations; e.g., sickle cell disease. Advances in pediatric exercise science will elucidate new pathways that may identify novel biomarkers. Our initial aim of this essay is to highlight the clinical relevance of exercise testing to determine peak V ˙ O 2 , and thereby convince clinicians of its merit, stimulating future clinical investigators to broaden the application of exercise testing in pediatrics.

Predicting mortality among hospitalized children with respiratory illness in Western Kenya, 2009-2012.

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Gideon O Emukule

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Pediatric respiratory disease is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in the developing world. We evaluated a modified respiratory index of severity in children (mRISC scoring system as a standard tool to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analyzed data from children <5 years old who were hospitalized with respiratory illness at Siaya District Hospital from 2009-2012. We used a multivariable logistic regression model to identify patient characteristics predictive for in-hospital mortality. Model discrimination was evaluated using the concordance statistic. Using bootstrap samples, we re-estimated the coefficients and the optimism of the model. The mRISC score for each child was developed by adding up the points assigned to each factor associated with mortality based on the coefficients in the multivariable model. RESULTS: We analyzed data from 3,581 children hospitalized with respiratory illness; including 218 (6% who died. Low weight-for-age [adjusted odds ratio (aOR = 2.1; 95% CI 1.3-3.2], very low weight-for-age (aOR = 3.8; 95% CI 2.7-5.4, caretaker-reported history of unconsciousness (aOR = 2.3; 95% CI 1.6-3.4, inability to drink or breastfeed (aOR = 1.8; 95% CI 1.2-2.8, chest wall in-drawing (aOR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.5-3.1, and being not fully conscious on physical exam (aOR = 8.0; 95% CI 5.1-12.6 were independently associated with mortality. The positive predictive value for mortality increased with increasing mRISC scores. CONCLUSIONS: A modified RISC scoring system based on a set of easily measurable clinical features at admission was able to identify children at greater risk of death from respiratory illness in Kenya.

Darcy’s law predicts widespread forest mortality under climate warming

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McDowell, Nate G.; Allen, Craig D.

2015-01-01

Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is accelerating in many forest biomes as a consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a threat to global forests unlike any in recorded history. Forests store the majority of terrestrial carbon, thus their loss may have significant and sustained impacts on the global carbon cycle. We use a hydraulic corollary to Darcy’s law, a core principle of vascular plant physiology, to predict characteristics of plants that will survive and die during drought under warmer future climates. Plants that are tall with isohydric stomatal regulation, low hydraulic conductance, and high leaf area are most likely to die from future drought stress. Thus, tall trees of old-growth forests are at the greatest risk of loss, which has ominous implications for terrestrial carbon storage. This application of Darcy’s law indicates today’s forests generally should be replaced by shorter and more xeric plants, owing to future warmer droughts and associated wildfires and pest attacks. The Darcy’s corollary also provides a simple, robust framework for informing forest management interventions needed to promote the survival of current forests. Given the robustness of Darcy’s law for predictions of vascular plant function, we conclude with high certainty that today’s forests are going to be subject to continued increases in mortality rates that will result in substantial reorganization of their structure and carbon storage.

A New Weighted Injury Severity Scoring System: Better Predictive Power for Pediatric Trauma Mortality.

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Shi, Junxin; Shen, Jiabin; Caupp, Sarah; Wang, Angela; Nuss, Kathryn E; Kenney, Brian; Wheeler, Krista K; Lu, Bo; Xiang, Henry

2018-05-02

An accurate injury severity measurement is essential for the evaluation of pediatric trauma care and outcome research. The traditional Injury Severity Score (ISS) does not consider the differential risks of the Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) from different body regions nor is it pediatric specific. The objective of this study was to develop a weighted injury severity scoring (wISS) system for pediatric blunt trauma patients with better predictive power than ISS. Based on the association between mortality and AIS from each of the six ISS body regions, we generated different weights for the component AIS scores used in the calculation of ISS. The weights and wISS were generated using the National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB). The Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS) was used to validate our main results. Pediatric blunt trauma patients less than 16 years were included, and mortality was the outcome. Discrimination (areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, concordance) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) were compared between the wISS and ISS. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves from the wISS and ISS are 0.88 vs. 0.86 in ISS=1-74 and 0.77 vs. 0.64 in ISS=25-74 (ppredictive value, negative predictive value, and concordance when they were compared at similar levels of sensitivity. The wISS had better calibration (smaller Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic) than the ISS (11.6 versus 19.7 for ISS=1-74 and 10.9 versus 12.6 for ISS= 25-74). The wISS showed even better discrimination with the NEDS. By weighting the AIS from different body regions, the wISS had significantly better predictive power for mortality than the ISS, especially in critically injured children.Level of Evidence and study typeLevel IV Prognostic/Epidemiological.

Child Mortality as Predicted by Nutritional Status and Recent Weight Velocity in Children under Two in Rural Africa.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

2012-01-31

WHO has released prescriptive child growth standards for, among others, BMI-for-age (BMI-FA), mid-upper arm circumference-for-age, and weight velocity. The ability of these indices to predict child mortality remains understudied, although growth velocity prognostic value underlies current growth monitoring programs. The study aims were first to assess, in children under 2, the independent and combined ability of these indices and of stunting to predict all-cause mortality within 3 mo, and second, the comparative abilities of weight-for-length (WFL) and BMI-FA to predict short-term (<3 mo) mortality. We used anthropometry and survival data from 2402 children aged between 0 and 24 mo in a rural area of the Democratic Republic of Congo with high malnutrition and mortality rates and limited nutritional rehabilitation. Analyses used Cox proportional hazard models and receiver operating characteristic curves. Univariate analysis and age-adjusted analysis showed predictive ability of all indices. Multivariate analysis without age adjustment showed that only very low weight velocity [HR = 3.82 (95%CI = 1.91, 7.63); P < 0.001] was independently predictive. With age adjustment, very low weight velocity [HR = 3.61 (95%CI = 1.80, 7.25); P < 0.001] was again solely retained as an independent predictor. There was no evidence for a difference in predictive ability between WFL and BMI-FA. This paper shows the value of attained BMI-FA, a marker of wasting status, and recent weight velocity, a marker of the wasting process, in predicting child death using the WHO child growth standards. WFL and BMI-FA appear equivalent as predictors.

Prognostic durability of liver fibrosis tests and improvement in predictive performance for mortality by combining tests.

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Bertrais, Sandrine; Boursier, Jérôme; Ducancelle, Alexandra; Oberti, Frédéric; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Moal, Valérie; Calès, Paul

2017-06-01

There is currently no recommended time interval between noninvasive fibrosis measurements for monitoring chronic liver diseases. We determined how long a single liver fibrosis evaluation may accurately predict mortality, and assessed whether combining tests improves prognostic performance. We included 1559 patients with chronic liver disease and available baseline liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by Fibroscan, aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB-4, Hepascore, and FibroMeter V2G . Median follow-up was 2.8 years during which 262 (16.8%) patients died, with 115 liver-related deaths. All fibrosis tests were able to predict mortality, although APRI (and FIB-4 for liver-related mortality) showed lower overall discriminative ability than the other tests (differences in Harrell's C-index: P fibrosis, 1 year in patients with significant fibrosis, and liver disease (MELD) score testing sets. In the training set, blood tests and LSM were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. The best-fit multivariate model included age, sex, LSM, and FibroMeter V2G with C-index = 0.834 (95% confidence interval, 0.803-0.862). The prognostic model for liver-related mortality included the same covariates with C-index = 0.868 (0.831-0.902). In the testing set, the multivariate models had higher prognostic accuracy than FibroMeter V2G or LSM alone for all-cause mortality and FibroMeter V2G alone for liver-related mortality. The prognostic durability of a single baseline fibrosis evaluation depends on the liver fibrosis level. Combining LSM with a blood fibrosis test improves mortality risk assessment. © 2016 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Temperature multiscale entropy analysis: a promising marker for early prediction of mortality in septic patients

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Papaioannou, V E; Pneumatikos, I A; Chouvarda, I G; Maglaveras, N K; Baltopoulos, G I

2013-01-01

A few studies estimating temperature complexity have found decreased Shannon entropy, during severe stress. In this study, we measured both Shannon and Tsallis entropy of temperature signals in a cohort of critically ill patients and compared these measures with the sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, in terms of intensive care unit (ICU) mortality. Skin temperature was recorded in 21 mechanically ventilated patients, who developed sepsis and septic shock during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. Shannon and Tsallis entropies were calculated in wavelet-based decompositions of the temperature signal. Statistically significant differences of entropy features were tested between survivors and non-survivors and classification models were built, for predicting final outcome. Significantly reduced Tsallis and Shannon entropies were found in non-survivors (seven patients, 33%) as compared to survivors. Wavelet measurements of both entropy metrics were found to predict ICU mortality better than SOFA, according to a combination of area under the curve, sensitivity and specificity values. Both entropies exhibited similar prognostic accuracy. Combination of SOFA and entropy presented improved the outcome of univariate models. We suggest that reduced wavelet Shannon and Tsallis entropies of temperature signals may complement SOFA in mortality prediction, during the first 24 h of an ICU-acquired infection. (paper)

Motivational "spill-over" during weight control: increased self-determination and exercise intrinsic motivation predict eating self-regulation.

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Mata, Jutta; Silva, Marlene N; Vieira, Paulo N; Carraça, Eliana V; Andrade, Ana M; Coutinho, Sílvia R; Sardinha, Luis B; Teixeira, Pedro J

2009-11-01

Successful weight management relies on at least two health behaviors, eating and exercise. However, little is known about their interaction on a motivational and behavioral level. Based on the Hierarchical Model of Motivation the authors examined whether exercise-specific motivation can transfer to eating regulation during a lifestyle weight control program. The authors further investigated whether general, treatment-related, and exercise motivation underlie the relation between increased exercise and improved eating regulation. Overweight/obese women participated in a 1-year randomized controlled trial (N = 239). The intervention focused on promoting physical activity and internal motivation for exercise and weight loss, following Self-Determination Theory. The control group received general health education. General and exercise specific self-determination, eating self-regulation variables, and physical activity behavior. General self-determination and more autonomous exercise motivation predicted eating self-regulation over 12 months. Additionally, general and exercise self-determination fully mediated the relation between physical activity and eating self-regulation. Increased general self-determination and exercise motivation seem to facilitate improvements in eating self-regulation during weight control in women. These motivational mechanisms also underlie the relationship between improvements in exercise behavior and eating regulation. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Charlson comorbidity index derived from chart review or administrative data: agreement and prediction of mortality in intensive care patients

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Stavem K

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Knut Stavem,1–3 Henrik Hoel,4 Stein Arve Skjaker,5 Rolf Haagensen6 1Institute of Clinical Medicine, University of Oslo, Oslo, 2Department of Pulmonary Medicine, Medical Division, 3Health Services Research Unit, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, 4Department of Surgery, Sykehuset Innlandet Kongsvinger, Kongsvinger, 5Section of Orthopaedic Emergency, Department of Orthopaedic Surgery, Oslo University Hospital, Oslo, 6Department of Anaesthesiology, Surgical Division, Akershus University Hospital, Lørenskog, Norway Purpose: This study compared the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI information derived from chart review and administrative systems to assess the completeness and agreement between scores, evaluate the capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality in intensive care unit (ICU patients, and compare the predictive capacity with that of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS II model.Patients and methods: Using data from 959 patients admitted to a general ICU in a Norwegian university hospital from 2007 to 2009, we compared the CCI score derived from chart review and administrative systems. Agreement was assessed using % agreement, kappa, and weighted kappa. The capacity to predict 30-day and 1-year mortality was assessed using logistic regression, model discrimination with the c-statistic, and calibration with a goodness-of-fit statistic.Results: The CCI was complete (n=959 when calculated from chart than from administrative data (n=839. Agreement was good, with a weighted kappa of 0.667 (95% confidence interval: 0.596–0.714. The c-statistics for categorized CCI scores from charts and administrative data were similar in the model that included age, sex, and type of admission: 0.755 and 0.743 for 30-day mortality, respectively, and 0.783 and 0.775, respectively, for 1-year mortality. Goodness-of-fit statistics supported the model fit.Conclusion: The CCI scores from chart review and administrative data showed good agreement

A prediction model for 5-year cardiac mortality in patients with chronic heart failure using {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine imaging

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Nakajima, Kenichi; Matsuo, Shinro [Kanazawa University Hospital, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Kanazawa (Japan); Nakata, Tomoaki [Sapporo Medical University School of Medicine, Second Department of Internal Medicine (Cardiology), Sapporo (Japan); Hakodate-Goryoukaku Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Hakodate (Japan); Yamada, Takahisa [Osaka Prefectural General Medical Center, Department of Cardiology, Osaka (Japan); Yamashina, Shohei [Toho University Omori Medical Center, Department of Cardiovascular Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Momose, Mitsuru [Tokyo Women' s Medical University, Department of Nuclear Medicine, Tokyo (Japan); Kasama, Shu [Cardiovascular Hospital of Central Japan, Department of Cardiology, Shibukawa (Japan); Matsui, Toshiki [Social Insurance Shiga General Hospital, Department of Cardiology, Otsu (Japan); Travin, Mark I. [Albert Einstein Medical College, Department of Cardiology and Nuclear Medicine, Montefiore Medical Center, Bronx, NY (United States); Jacobson, Arnold F. [GE Healthcare, Medical Diagnostics, Princeton, NJ (United States)

2014-09-15

Prediction of mortality risk is important in the management of chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim of this study was to create a prediction model for 5-year cardiac death including assessment of cardiac sympathetic innervation using data from a multicenter cohort study in Japan. The original pooled database consisted of cohort studies from six sites in Japan. A total of 933 CHF patients who underwent {sup 123}I-metaiodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) imaging and whose 5-year outcomes were known were selected from this database. The late MIBG heart-to-mediastinum ratio (HMR) was used for quantification of cardiac uptake. Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression analyses were used to select appropriate variables for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality. The formula for predicting 5-year mortality was created using a logistic regression model. During the 5-year follow-up, 205 patients (22 %) died of a cardiac event including heart failure death, sudden cardiac death and fatal acute myocardial infarction (64 %, 30 % and 6 %, respectively). Multivariate logistic analysis selected four parameters, including New York Heart Association (NYHA) functional class, age, gender and left ventricular ejection fraction, without HMR (model 1) and five parameters with the addition of HMR (model 2). The net reclassification improvement analysis for all subjects was 13.8 % (p < 0.0001) by including HMR and its inclusion was most effective in the downward reclassification of low-risk patients. Nomograms for predicting 5-year cardiac mortality were created from the five-parameter regression model. Cardiac MIBG imaging had a significant additive value for predicting cardiac mortality. The prediction formula and nomograms can be used for risk stratifying in patients with CHF. (orig.)

Brain Network Modularity Predicts Exercise-Related Executive Function Gains in Older Adults.

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Baniqued, Pauline L; Gallen, Courtney L; Voss, Michelle W; Burzynska, Agnieszka Z; Wong, Chelsea N; Cooke, Gillian E; Duffy, Kristin; Fanning, Jason; Ehlers, Diane K; Salerno, Elizabeth A; Aguiñaga, Susan; McAuley, Edward; Kramer, Arthur F; D'Esposito, Mark

2017-01-01

Recent work suggests that the brain can be conceptualized as a network comprised of groups of sub-networks or modules. The extent of segregation between modules can be quantified with a modularity metric, where networks with high modularity have dense connections within modules and sparser connections between modules. Previous work has shown that higher modularity predicts greater improvements after cognitive training in patients with traumatic brain injury and in healthy older and young adults. It is not known, however, whether modularity can also predict cognitive gains after a physical exercise intervention. Here, we quantified modularity in older adults ( N = 128, mean age = 64.74) who underwent one of the following interventions for 6 months (NCT01472744 on ClinicalTrials.gov): (1) aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking (Walk), (2) aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking plus nutritional supplement (Walk+), (3) stretching, strengthening and stability (SSS), or (4) dance instruction. After the intervention, the Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups showed gains in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), with larger effects in both walking groups compared to the SSS and Dance groups. The Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups also improved in executive function (EF) as measured by reasoning, working memory, and task-switching tests. In the Walk, Walk+, and SSS groups that improved in EF, higher baseline modularity was positively related to EF gains, even after controlling for age, in-scanner motion and baseline EF. No relationship between modularity and EF gains was observed in the Dance group, which did not show training-related gains in CRF or EF control. These results are consistent with previous studies demonstrating that individuals with a more modular brain network organization are more responsive to cognitive training. These findings suggest that the predictive power of modularity may be generalizable across interventions aimed to enhance aspects of cognition and that

Brain Network Modularity Predicts Exercise-Related Executive Function Gains in Older Adults

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Pauline L. Baniqued

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Recent work suggests that the brain can be conceptualized as a network comprised of groups of sub-networks or modules. The extent of segregation between modules can be quantified with a modularity metric, where networks with high modularity have dense connections within modules and sparser connections between modules. Previous work has shown that higher modularity predicts greater improvements after cognitive training in patients with traumatic brain injury and in healthy older and young adults. It is not known, however, whether modularity can also predict cognitive gains after a physical exercise intervention. Here, we quantified modularity in older adults (N = 128, mean age = 64.74 who underwent one of the following interventions for 6 months (NCT01472744 on ClinicalTrials.gov: (1 aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking (Walk, (2 aerobic exercise in the form of brisk walking plus nutritional supplement (Walk+, (3 stretching, strengthening and stability (SSS, or (4 dance instruction. After the intervention, the Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups showed gains in cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF, with larger effects in both walking groups compared to the SSS and Dance groups. The Walk, Walk+ and SSS groups also improved in executive function (EF as measured by reasoning, working memory, and task-switching tests. In the Walk, Walk+, and SSS groups that improved in EF, higher baseline modularity was positively related to EF gains, even after controlling for age, in-scanner motion and baseline EF. No relationship between modularity and EF gains was observed in the Dance group, which did not show training-related gains in CRF or EF control. These results are consistent with previous studies demonstrating that individuals with a more modular brain network organization are more responsive to cognitive training. These findings suggest that the predictive power of modularity may be generalizable across interventions aimed to enhance aspects of cognition and

Abdominal obesity in Japanese-Brazilians: which measure is best for predicting all-cause and cardiovascular mortality?

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Marselle Rodrigues Bevilacqua

Full Text Available This study aimed to verify which anthropometric measure of abdominal obesity was the best predictor of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in Japanese-Brazilians. The study followed 1,581 subjects for 14 years. Socio-demographic, lifestyle, metabolic, and anthropometric data were collected. The dependent variable was vital status (alive or dead at the end of the study, and the independent variable was presence of abdominal obesity according to different baseline measures. The mortality rate was estimated, and Poisson regression was used to obtain mortality rate ratios with abdominal obesity, adjusted simultaneously for the other variables. The mortality rate was 10.68/thousand person-years. Male gender, age > 60 years, and arterial hypertension were independent risk factors for mortality. The results indicate that prevalence of abdominal obesity was high among Japanese-Brazilians, and that waist/hip ratio was the measure with the greatest capacity to predict mortality (especially cardiovascular mortality in this group.

Development and validation of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

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Robinson, Tom E; Elley, C Raina; Kenealy, Tim; Drury, Paul L

2015-06-01

Type 2 diabetes is common and is associated with an approximate 80% increase in the rate of mortality. Management decisions may be assisted by an estimate of the patient's absolute risk of adverse outcomes, including death. This study aimed to derive a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes. We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked mortality records to develop a predictive risk model for 5-year risk of mortality. We then validated this model using information from a separate cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. 26,864 people were included in the development cohort with a median follow up time of 9.1 years. We developed three models initially using demographic information and then progressively more clinical detail. The final model, which also included markers of renal disease, proved to give best prediction of all-cause mortality with a C-statistic of 0.80 in the development cohort and 0.79 in the validation cohort (7610 people) and was well calibrated. Ethnicity was a major factor with hazard ratios of 1.37 for indigenous Maori, 0.41 for East Asian and 0.55 for Indo Asian compared with European (P<0.001). We have developed a model using information usually available in primary care that provides good assessment of patient's risk of death. Results are similar to models previously published from smaller cohorts in other countries and apply to a wider range of patient ethnic groups. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Regression trees for predicting mortality in patients with cardiovascular disease: What improvement is achieved by using ensemble-based methods?

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Austin, Peter C; Lee, Douglas S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tu, Jack V

2012-01-01

In biomedical research, the logistic regression model is the most commonly used method for predicting the probability of a binary outcome. While many clinical researchers have expressed an enthusiasm for regression trees, this method may have limited accuracy for predicting health outcomes. We aimed to evaluate the improvement that is achieved by using ensemble-based methods, including bootstrap aggregation (bagging) of regression trees, random forests, and boosted regression trees. We analyzed 30-day mortality in two large cohorts of patients hospitalized with either acute myocardial infarction (N = 16,230) or congestive heart failure (N = 15,848) in two distinct eras (1999–2001 and 2004–2005). We found that both the in-sample and out-of-sample prediction of ensemble methods offered substantial improvement in predicting cardiovascular mortality compared to conventional regression trees. However, conventional logistic regression models that incorporated restricted cubic smoothing splines had even better performance. We conclude that ensemble methods from the data mining and machine learning literature increase the predictive performance of regression trees, but may not lead to clear advantages over conventional logistic regression models for predicting short-term mortality in population-based samples of subjects with cardiovascular disease. PMID:22777999

Prediction of Mortality and Causes of Death in a Burn Centre: A Retrospective Clinical Study

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Celalettin Sever

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Aim: Mortality rates are important outcome parameters after burn. The causes of mortality have been reported differently in the literature. The aim of the study was to identify parameters that are predictive of major morbidity factors and risk of mortality in patients with burn injury. Material and Methods: This study was performed among the patients who admitted to the burn center period between December 2001 and June 2010. Within this period, demographic data, treatment, and outcomes of treatment were reviewed and analyzed. Results: The burn patients were analysed retrospectively during 9-years period between December 2001 and January 2010. Burns caused by scalding were the most frequent (69.7 % followed by flames (24.4 %. 4.30 % of the patients died because of multisystem organ failure, septicaemia and cardiac respiratory failure. Conclusions:The most common cause of mortality was multiorgan failure according to our study. The mortality rates and causes of burn centers should be investigated retrospectively between different burn centres to determine the most common cause of mortality in burn centers. 

Power Relative to Body Mass Best Predicts Change in Core Temperature During Exercise-Heat Stress.

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Gibson, Oliver R; Willmott, Ashley G B; James, Carl A; Hayes, Mark; Maxwell, Neil S

2017-02-01

Gibson, OR, Willmott, AGB, James, CA, Hayes, M, and Maxwell, NS. Power relative to body mass best predicts change in core temperature during exercise-heat stress. J Strength Cond Res 31(2): 403-414, 2017-Controlling internal temperature is crucial when prescribing exercise-heat stress, particularly during interventions designed to induce thermoregulatory adaptations. This study aimed to determine the relationship between the rate of rectal temperature (Trec) increase, and various methods for prescribing exercise-heat stress, to identify the most efficient method of prescribing isothermic heat acclimation (HA) training. Thirty-five men cycled in hot conditions (40° C, 39% R.H.) for 29 ± 2 minutes. Subjects exercised at 60 ± 9% V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak, with methods for prescribing exercise retrospectively observed for each participant. Pearson product moment correlations were calculated for each prescriptive variable against the rate of change in Trec (° C·h), with stepwise multiple regressions performed on statistically significant variables (p ≤ 0.05). Linear regression identified the predicted intensity required to increase Trec by 1.0-2.0° C between 20- and 45-minute periods and the duration taken to increase Trec by 1.5° C in response to incremental intensities to guide prescription. Significant (p ≤ 0.05) relationships with the rate of change in Trec were observed for prescriptions based on relative power (W·kg; r = 0.764), power (%Powermax; r = 0.679), rating of perceived exertion (RPE) (r = 0.577), V[Combining Dot Above]O2 (%V[Combining Dot Above]O2peak; r = 0.562), heart rate (HR) (%HRmax; r = 0.534), and thermal sensation (r = 0.311). Stepwise multiple regressions observed relative power and RPE as variables to improve the model (r = 0.791), with no improvement after inclusion of any anthropometric variable. Prescription of exercise under heat stress using power (W·kg or %Powermax) has the strongest relationship with the rate of change in

Acute post-exercise change in blood pressure and exercise training response in patients with coronary artery disease

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Antti M Kiviniemi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available We tested the hypothesis that acute post-exercise change in blood pressure (BP may predict exercise training responses in BP in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD. Patients with CAD (n=116, age 62±5 years, 85 men underwent BP assessments at rest and during 10-min recovery following a symptom-limited exercise test before and after the 6-month training intervention (one strength and 3-4 aerobic moderate-intensity exercises weekly. Post-exercise change in systolic BP (SBP was calculated by subtracting resting SBP from lowest post-exercise SBP. The training-induced change in resting SBP was -2±13 mmHg (p=0.064, ranging from -42 to 35 mmHg. Larger post-exercise decrease in SBP and baseline resting SBP predicted a larger training-induced decrement in SBP (β=0.46 and β=-0.44, respectively, p<0.001 for both. Acute post-exercise decrease in SBP provided additive value to baseline resting SBP in the prediction of training-induced change in resting SBP (R squared from 0.20 to 0.26, p=0.002. After further adjustments for other potential confounders (sex, age, baseline body mass index, realized training load, post-exercise decrease in SBP still predicted the training response in resting SBP (β=0.26, p=0.015. Acute post-exercise change in SBP was associated with training-induced change in resting SBP in patients with CAD, providing significant predictive information beyond baseline resting SBP.

Predicting students' physical activity and health-related well-being: a prospective cross-domain investigation of motivation across school physical education and exercise settings.

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Standage, Martyn; Gillison, Fiona B; Ntoumanis, Nikos; Treasure, Darren C

2012-02-01

A three-wave prospective design was used to assess a model of motivation guided by self-determination theory (Ryan & Deci, 2008) spanning the contexts of school physical education (PE) and exercise. The outcome variables examined were health-related quality of life (HRQoL), physical self-concept (PSC), and 4 days of objectively assessed estimates of activity. Secondary school students (n = 494) completed questionnaires at three separate time points and were familiarized with how to use a sealed pedometer. Results of structural equation modeling supported a model in which perceptions of autonomy support from a PE teacher positively predicted PE-related need satisfaction (autonomy, competence, and relatedness). Competence predicted PSC, whereas relatedness predicted HRQoL. Autonomy and competence positively predicted autonomous motivation toward PE, which in turn positively predicted autonomous motivation toward exercise (i.e., 4-day pedometer step count). Autonomous motivation toward exercise positively predicted step count, HRQoL, and PSC. Results of multisample structural equation modeling supported gender invariance. Suggestions for future work are discussed.

Regional variation in the predictive validity of self-rated health for mortality

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Edward R. Berchick

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Self-rated health (SRH is a commonly used measure for assessing general health in surveys in the United States. However, individuals from different parts of the United States may vary in how they assess their health. Geographic differences in health care access and in the prevalence of illnesses may make it difficult to discern true regional differences in health when using SRH as a health measure. In this article, we use data from the 1986 and 1989–2006 National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files and estimate Cox regression models to examine whether the relationship between SRH and five-year all-cause mortality differs by Census region. Contrary to hypotheses, there is no evidence of regional variation in the predictive validity of SRH for mortality. At all levels of SRH, and for both non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black respondents, SRH is equally and strongly associated with five-year mortality across regions. Our results suggest that differences in SRH across regions are not solely due to differences in how respondents assess their health across regions, but reflect true differences in health. Future research can, therefore, employ this common measure to investigate the geographic patterning of health in the United States.

Influence of Goal Contents on Exercise Addiction: Analysing the Mediating Effect of Passion for Exercise.

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Sicilia, Álvaro; Alcaraz-Ibáñez, Manuel; Lirola, María-Jesús; Burgueño, Rafael

2017-10-01

Based on the self-determination theory (Deci and Ryan, 1985, 2000), the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of exercise goal contents on exercise addiction, taking into account the mediating effects of passion for exercise. A total of 384 university students (284 men and 100 women; M age = 20.31, SD = 3.10) completed a questionnaire that measured exercise frequency and intensity, exercise goal contents (e.g. intrinsic: social affiliation, health management, skill development; extrinsic: image and social recognition), passion for exercise (e.g. harmonious and obsessive), and exercise addiction. After controlling the exercise frequency and intensity effects, results showed that goal contents did not directly predict exercise addiction. However, mediation analysis showed that goal contents predicted addiction through passion for exercise. These results support a motivational sequence in which extrinsic versus intrinsic goals influence exercise addiction because such goals are positively associated with obsessive passion for exercise and negatively associated with harmonious passion.

Influence of Goal Contents on Exercise Addiction: Analysing the Mediating Effect of Passion for Exercise

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Sicilia Álvaro

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Based on the self-determination theory (Deci and Ryan, 1985, 2000, the purpose of this study was to examine the effects of exercise goal contents on exercise addiction, taking into account the mediating effects of passion for exercise. A total of 384 university students (284 men and 100 women; Mage = 20.31, SD = 3.10 completed a questionnaire that measured exercise frequency and intensity, exercise goal contents (e.g. intrinsic: social affiliation, health management, skill development; extrinsic: image and social recognition, passion for exercise (e.g. harmonious and obsessive, and exercise addiction. After controlling the exercise frequency and intensity effects, results showed that goal contents did not directly predict exercise addiction. However, mediation analysis showed that goal contents predicted addiction through passion for exercise. These results support a motivational sequence in which extrinsic versus intrinsic goals influence exercise addiction because such goals are positively associated with obsessive passion for exercise and negatively associated with harmonious passion.

Can Energy Cost During Low-Intensity Resistance Exercise be Predicted by the OMNI-RES Scale?

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Vianna, Jefferson M.; Reis, Victor M.; Saavedra, Francisco; Damasceno, Vinicius; Silva, Sérgio G.; Goss, Fredric

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess the precision of the OMNI-RES scale to predict energy cost (EC) at low intensity in four resistance exercises (RE). 17 male recreational body builders (age = 26.6 ± 4.9 years; height = 177.7 ± 0.1 cm; body weight = 79.0 ± 11.1 kg and percent body fat = 10.5 ± 4.6%) served as subjects. Initially tests to determine 1RM for four resistance exercises (bench press, half squat, lat pull down and triceps extension) were administered. Subjects also performed resistance exercise at 12, 16, 20, and 24% of 1RM at a rate of 40 bpm until volitional exhaustion. Oxygen uptake (VO2) and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) using the OMNI-RES were obtained during and after all RE. EC was calculated using VO2 and the caloric values of VO2 for non-protein RER. Regression analyses were performed for every RE, using EC as the dependent and RPE as the predictor variable. The triceps extension, lat pull down and bench press, RPE correlated strongly with EC (R > 0.97) and predicted EC with a error of less than 0.2 kcal.min−1. In conclusion, RPE using the OMNI-RES scale can be considered as an accurate indicator of EC in the bench press, lat pull down and triceps extension performed by recreational bodybuilders, provided lower intensities are used (up to 24% of 1-RM) and provided each set of exercise is performed for the maximal sustainable duration. It would be interesting in future studies to consider having the subjects exercise at low intensities for longer durations than those in the present study. PMID:23486188

Should the IDC-9 Trauma Mortality Prediction Model become the new paradigm for benchmarking trauma outcomes?

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Haider, Adil H; Villegas, Cassandra V; Saleem, Taimur; Efron, David T; Stevens, Kent A; Oyetunji, Tolulope A; Cornwell, Edward E; Bowman, Stephen; Haack, Sara; Baker, Susan P; Schneider, Eric B

2012-06-01

Optimum quantification of injury severity remains an imprecise science with a need for improvement. The accuracy of the criterion standard Injury Severity Score (ISS) worsens as a patient's injury severity increases, especially among patients with penetrating trauma. The objective of this study was to comprehensively compare the mortality prediction ability of three anatomic injury severity indices: the ISS, the New ISS (NISS), and the DRG International Classification of Diseases-9th Rev.-Trauma Mortality Prediction Model (TMPM-ICD-9), a recently developed contemporary injury assessment model. Retrospective analysis of patients in the National Trauma Data Bank from 2007 to 2008. The TMPM-ICD-9 values were computed and compared with the ISS and NISS for each patient using in-hospital mortality after trauma as the outcome measure. Discrimination and calibration were compared using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Subgroup analysis was performed to compare each score across varying ranges of injury severity and across different types of injury. A total of 533,898 patients were identified with a crude mortality rate of 4.7%. The ISS and NISS performed equally in the groups with minor (ISS, 1-8) and moderate (ISS, 9-15) injuries, regardless of the injury type. However, in the populations with severe (ISS, 16-24) and very severe (ISS, ≥ 25) injuries for all injury types, the NISS predicted mortality better than the ISS did. The TMPM-ICD-9 outperformed both the NISS and ISS almost consistently. The NISS and TMPM-ICD-9 are both superior predictors of mortality as compared with the ISS. The immediate adoption of NISS for evaluating trauma outcomes using trauma registry data is recommended. The TMPM-ICD-9 may be an even better measure of human injury, and its use in administrative or nonregistry data is suggested. Further research on its attributes is recommended because it has the potential to become the basis for benchmarking trauma outcomes

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver failure and prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism.

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Kim, Hwi Young; Chang, Young; Park, Jae Yong; Ahn, Hongkeun; Cho, Hyeki; Han, Seung Jun; Oh, Sohee; Kim, Donghee; Jung, Yong Jin; Kim, Byeong Gwan; Lee, Kook Lae; Kim, Won

2016-02-01

Alcoholic liver diseases often evolve to acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), which increases the risk of (multi-)organ failure and death. We investigated the development and characteristics of alcohol-related ACLF and evaluated prognostic scores for prediction of mortality in Asian patients with active alcoholism. A total of 205 patients who were hospitalized with severe alcoholic liver disease were included in this retrospective cohort study, after excluding those with serious cardiovascular diseases, malignancy, or co-existing viral hepatitis. The Chronic Liver Failure (CLIF) Consortium Organ Failure score was used in the diagnosis and grading of ACLF, and the CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs) was used to predict mortality. Patients with ACLF had higher Maddrey discriminant function, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium scores than those without ACLF. Infections were more frequently documented in patients with ACLF (33.3% vs 53.0%; P = 0.004). Predictive factors for ACLF development were systemic inflammatory response syndrome (odds ratio [OR], 2.239; P alcohol-related ACLF in Asian patients with active alcoholism. The CLIF-C ACLFs may be more useful for predicting mortality in ACLF cases than liver-specific scoring systems. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Mortality after Spontaneous Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: Causality and Validation of a Prediction Model.

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Abulhasan, Yasser B; Alabdulraheem, Najayeb; Simoneau, Gabrielle; Angle, Mark R; Teitelbaum, Jeanne

2018-04-01

To evaluate primary causes of death after spontaneous subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and externally validate the HAIR score, a prognostication tool, in a single academic institution. We reviewed all patients with SAH admitted to our neuro-intensive care unit between 2010 and 2016. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were performed to identify predictors of in-hospital mortality. The HAIR score predictors were Hunt and Hess grade at treatment decision, age, intraventricular hemorrhage, and rebleeding within 24 hours. Validation of the HAIR score was characterized with the receiver operating curve, the area under the curve, and a calibration plot. Among 434 patients with SAH, in-hospital mortality was 14.1%. Of the 61 mortalities, 54 (88.5%) had a neurologic cause of death or withdrawal of care and 7 (11.5%) had cardiac death. Median time from SAH to death was 6 days. The main causes of death were effect of the initial hemorrhage (26.2%), rebleeding (23%) and refractory cerebral edema (19.7%). Factors significantly associated with in-hospital mortality in the multivariate analysis were age, Hunt and Hess grade, and intracerebral hemorrhage. Maximum lumen size was also a significant risk factor after aneurysmal SAH. The HAIR score had a satisfactory discriminative ability, with an area under the curve of 0.89. The in-hospital mortality is lower than in previous reports, attesting to the continuing improvement of our institutional SAH care. The major causes are the same as in previous reports. Despite a different therapeutic protocol, the HAIR score showed good discrimination and could be a useful tool for predicting mortality. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Interleukin-6 and procalcitonin as biomarkers in mortality prediction of hospitalized patients with community acquired pneumonia

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Ilija Andrijevic

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Community acquired pneumonia (CAP may present as life-threatening infection with uncertain progression and outcome of treatment. Primary aim of the trial was determination of the cut-off value of serum interleukin-6 (IL-6 and procalcitonin (PCT above which, 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with CAP, could be predicted with high sensitivity and specificity. We investigated correlation between serum levels of IL-6 and PCT at admission and available scoring systems of CAP (pneumonia severity index-PSI, modified early warning score-MEWS and (Confusion, Urea nitrogen, respiratory rate, Blood pressure, ≥65 years of age-CURB65. Methods: This was prospective, non-randomized trial which included 101 patients with diagnosed CAP. PSI, MEWS and CURB65 were assessed on first day of hospitalization. IL-6 and PCT were also sampled on the first day of hospitalization. Results: Based on ROC curve analysis (AUC ± SE = 0.934 ± 0.035; 95%CI(0.864-1.0; P = 0.000 hospitalized CAP patients with elevated IL-6 level have 93.4% higher risk level for lethal outcome. Cut-off value of 20.2 pg/ml IL-6 shows sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 87% in mortality prediction. ROC curve analysis confirmed significant role of procalcitonin as a mortality predictor in CAP patients (AUC ± SE = 0.667 ± 0.062; 95%CI(0.546-0.789; P = 0.012. Patients with elevated PCT level have 66.7% higher risk level for lethal outcome. As a predictor of mortality at the cut-off value of 2.56 ng/ml PCT shows sensitivity of 76% and specificity of 61.8%. Conclusions: Both IL-6 and PCI are significant for prediction of 30-day mortality in hospitalized patients with CAP. Serum levels of IL6 correlate with major CAP scoring systems.

Worldwide trends in gastric cancer mortality (1980-2011), with predictions to 2015, and incidence by subtype.

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Ferro, Ana; Peleteiro, Bárbara; Malvezzi, Matteo; Bosetti, Cristina; Bertuccio, Paola; Levi, Fabio; Negri, Eva; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2014-05-01

Gastric cancer incidence and mortality decreased substantially over the last decades in most countries worldwide, with differences in the trends and distribution of the main topographies across regions. To monitor recent mortality trends (1980-2011) and to compute short-term predictions (2015) of gastric cancer mortality in selected countries worldwide, we analysed mortality data provided by the World Health Organization. We also analysed incidence of cardia and non-cardia cancers using data from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (2003-2007). The joinpoint regression over the most recent calendar periods gave estimated annual percent changes (EAPC) around -3% for the European Union (EU) and major European countries, as well as in Japan and Korea, and around -2% in North America and major Latin American countries. In the United States of America (USA), EU and other major countries worldwide, the EAPC, however, were lower than in previous years. The predictions for 2015 show that a levelling off of rates is expected in the USA and a few other countries. The relative contribution of cardia and non-cardia gastric cancers to the overall number of cases varies widely, with a generally higher proportion of cardia cancers in countries with lower gastric cancer incidence and mortality rates (e.g. the USA, Canada and Denmark). Despite the favourable mortality trends worldwide, in some countries the declines are becoming less marked. There still is the need to control Helicobacter pylori infection and other risk factors, as well as to improve diagnosis and management, to further reduce the burden of gastric cancer. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Index to Predict In-hospital Mortality in Older Adults after Non-traumatic Emergency Department Intubations

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Kei Ouchi

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Introduction: Our goal was to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality in older adults after non-traumatic emergency department (ED intubations. Methods: We used Vizient administrative data from hospitalizations of 22,374 adults ≥75 years who underwent non-traumatic ED intubation from 2008–2015 at nearly 300 U.S. hospitals to develop and validate an index to predict in-hospital mortality. We randomly selected one half of participants for the development cohort and one half for the validation cohort. Considering 25 potential predictors, we developed a multivariable logistic regression model using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to determine factors associated with in-hospital mortality. We calculated risk scores using points derived from the final model’s beta coefficients. To evaluate calibration and discrimination of the final model, we used Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square test and receiver-operating characteristic analysis and compared mortality by risk groups in the development and validation cohorts. Results: Death during the index hospitalization occurred in 40% of cases. The final model included six variables: history of myocardial infarction, history of cerebrovascular disease, history of metastatic cancer, age, admission diagnosis of sepsis, and admission diagnosis of stroke/ intracranial hemorrhage. Those with low-risk scores (10 had 58% risk of in-hospital mortality. The Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square of the model was 6.47 (p=0.09, and the c-statistic was 0.62 in the validation cohort. Conclusion: The model may be useful in identifying older adults at high risk of death after ED intubation.

Sex/gender and socioeconomic differences in the predictive ability of self-rated health for mortality.

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Akihiro Nishi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Studies have reported that the predictive ability of self-rated health (SRH for mortality varies by sex/gender and socioeconomic group. The purpose of this study is to evaluate this relationship in Japan and explore the potential reasons for differences between the groups. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analyses in the study were based on the Aichi Gerontological Evaluation Study's (AGES 2003 Cohort Study in Chita Peninsula, Japan, which followed the four-year survival status of 14,668 community-dwelling people who were at least 65 years old at the start of the study. We first examined sex/gender and education-level differences in association with fair/poor SRH. We then estimated the sex/gender- and education-specific hazard ratios (HRs of mortality associated with lower SRH using Cox models. Control variables, including health behaviors (smoking and drinking, symptoms of depression, and chronic co-morbid conditions, were added to sequential regression models. The results showed men and women reported a similar prevalence of lower SRH. However, lower SRH was a stronger predictor of mortality in men (HR = 2.44 [95% confidence interval (CI: 2.14-2.80] than in women (HR = 1.88 [95% CI: 1.44-2.47]; p for sex/gender interaction = 0.018. The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH was progressively attenuated with the additional introduction of other co-morbid conditions. The predictive ability among individuals with high school education (HR = 2.39 [95% CI: 1.74-3.30] was similar to that among individuals with less than a high school education (HR = 2.14 [95% CI: 1.83-2.50]; p for education interaction = 0.549. CONCLUSIONS: The sex/gender difference in the predictive ability of SRH for mortality among this elderly Japanese population may be explained by male/female differences in what goes into an individual's assessment of their SRH, with males apparently weighting depressive symptoms more than

What Predicts Exercise Maintenance and Well-Being? Examining The Influence of Health-Related Psychographic Factors and Social Media Communication.

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Zhou, Xin; Krishnan, Archana

2018-01-26

Habitual exercising is an important precursor to both physical and psychological well-being. There is, thus, a strong interest in identifying key factors that can best motivate individuals to sustain regular exercise regimen. In addition to the importance of psychographic factors, social media use may act as external motivator by allowing users to interact and communicate about exercise. In this study, we examined the influence of health consciousness, health-oriented beliefs, intrinsic motivation, as willingness to communicate about health on social media, social media activity on exercise, and online social support on exercise maintenance and well-being on a sample of 532 American adults. Employing structural equation modeling, we found that health-oriented beliefs mediated the effect of health consciousness on intrinsic motivation which in turn was a significant predictor of exercise maintenance. Exercise maintenance significantly predicted both physical and psychological well-being. Extrinsic motivators, as measured by willingness to communicate about health on social media, social media activity on exercise, and online social support did not however significantly influence exercise maintenance. These findings have implications for the design and implementation of exercise-promoting interventions by identifying underlying factors that influence exercise maintenance.

The pediatric index of mortality 3 score to predict mortality in a pediatric intensive care unit in Palembang, South Sumatera, Indonesia

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Destiana Sera Puspita Sari

2017-06-01

Conclusion In Mohammad Hoesin Hospital, Palembang, South Sumatera, the PIM 3 can be used to predict mortality in PICU patients, but the score should be multiplied by a factor of 2.24. This recalibration is needed due to the presumed lower standard of care at this hospital compared to that of the originating PIM 3 institutions in developed countries.

Skeletal muscle-specific expression of PGC-1α-b, an exercise-responsive isoform, increases exercise capacity and peak oxygen uptake.

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Miki Tadaishi

Full Text Available Maximal oxygen uptake (VO(2max predicts mortality and is associated with endurance performance. Trained subjects have a high VO(2max due to a high cardiac output and high metabolic capacity of skeletal muscles. Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor γ coactivator 1α (PGC-1α, a nuclear receptor coactivator, promotes mitochondrial biogenesis, a fiber-type switch to oxidative fibers, and angiogenesis in skeletal muscle. Because exercise training increases PGC-1α in skeletal muscle, PGC-1α-mediated changes may contribute to the improvement of exercise capacity and VO(2max. There are three isoforms of PGC-1α mRNA. PGC-1α-b protein, whose amino terminus is different from PGC-1α-a protein, is a predominant PGC-1α isoform in response to exercise. We investigated whether alterations of skeletal muscle metabolism by overexpression of PGC-1α-b in skeletal muscle, but not heart, would increase VO(2max and exercise capacity.Transgenic mice showed overexpression of PGC-1α-b protein in skeletal muscle but not in heart. Overexpression of PGC-1α-b promoted mitochondrial biogenesis 4-fold, increased the expression of fatty acid transporters, enhanced angiogenesis in skeletal muscle 1.4 to 2.7-fold, and promoted exercise capacity (expressed by maximum speed by 35% and peak oxygen uptake by 20%. Across a broad range of either the absolute exercise intensity, or the same relative exercise intensities, lipid oxidation was always higher in the transgenic mice than wild-type littermates, suggesting that lipid is the predominant fuel source for exercise in the transgenic mice. However, muscle glycogen usage during exercise was absent in the transgenic mice.Increased mitochondrial biogenesis, capillaries, and fatty acid transporters in skeletal muscles may contribute to improved exercise capacity via an increase in fatty acid utilization. Increases in PGC-1α-b protein or function might be a useful strategy for sedentary subjects to perform exercise

Effect of ventricular size and function on exercise performance and the electrocardiogram in repaired tetralogy of Fallot with pure pulmonary regurgitation

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Menon, Shaji C; Kaza, Aditya K; Puchalski, Michael D

2012-01-01

In repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF), exercise test parameters like peak oxygen uptake and ventilatory efficiency predict mortality. Studies have also suggested cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR)-derived right ventricular (RV) size threshold values for pulmonary valve replacement in repaired TOF. However, effects of proposed RV size on exercise capacity and morbidity are not known. The relationship between CMR-derived ventricular size, function, and pulmonary regurgitation (PR) and NYHA class, exercise performance, and electrocardiogram (ECG) was studied in patients of repaired TOF with pure PR in a retrospective review of records. 46 patients (22 females), mean age 14 years (8–30.8), were studied. There was no relationship between CMR-derived ventricular size, function, or PR and exercise test parameters, or NYHA class. RV end systolic and end diastolic volume correlated positively with the degree of PR. QRS duration on ECG correlated positively with RV end-diastolic volume (P < 0.01, r 2 = 0.34) and PR (P < 0.01, r 2 = 0.52). In repaired TOF and pure PR, there is no correlation between ventricular size or function and exercise performance. RV size increases with increasing PR. Timing of pulmonary valve replacement in TOF with pure PR needs further prospective evaluation for its effect on morbidity and mortality

Exercise motivation: a cross-sectional analysis examining its relationships with frequency, intensity, and duration of exercise

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Wilson Philip M

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is important to engage in regular physical activity in order to maintain a healthy lifestyle however a large portion of the population is insufficiently active. Understanding how different types of motivation contribute to exercise behavior is an important first step in identifying ways to increase exercise among individuals. The current study employs self-determination theory as a framework from which to examine how motivation contributes to various characteristics of exercise behavior. Methods Regular exercisers (N = 1079; n = 468 males; n = 612 females completed inventories which assessed the frequency, intensity, and duration with which they exercise, as well as the Behavioral Regulation in Exercise Questionnaire including four additional items assessing integrated regulation. Results Bivariate correlations revealed that all three behavioral indices (frequency, intensity, and duration of exercise were more highly correlated with more autonomous than controlling regulations. Regression analyses revealed that integrated and identified regulations predicted exercise frequency for males and females. Integrated regulation was found to be the only predictor of exercise duration across both genders. Finally, introjected regulation predicted exercise intensity for females only. Conclusions These findings suggest that exercise regulations that vary in their degree of internalization can differentially predict characteristics of exercise behavior. Furthermore, in the motivational profile of a regular exerciser, integrated regulation appears to be an important determinant of exercise behavior. These results highlight the importance of assessing integrated regulation in exercise settings where the goal of understanding motivated behavior has important health implications.

Fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonias: HRCT findings that predict mortality

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Edey, Anthony J.; Hansell, David M. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Radiology, London (United Kingdom); Devaraj, Anand A. [St. George' s NHS Foundation Trust, Department of Radiology, Tooting (United Kingdom); Barker, Robert P. [Frimley Park Hosptal, Department of Radiology, Frimley, Surrey (United Kingdom); Nicholson, Andrew G. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Department of Histopathology, London (United Kingdom); Wells, Athol U. [The Royal Brompton Hospital, Interstitial Lung Disease Unit, London (United Kingdom)

2011-08-15

The study aims were to identify CT features that predict outcome of fibrotic idiopathic interstitial pneumonia (IIP) when information from lung biopsy data is unavailable. HRCTs of 146 consecutive patients presenting with fibrotic IIP were studied. Visual estimates were made of the extent of abnormal lung and proportional contribution of fine and coarse reticulation, microcystic (cysts {<=}4 mm) and macrocystic honeycombing. A score for severity of traction bronchiectasis was also assigned. Using death as our primary outcome measure, variables were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model. CT features predictive of a worse outcome were coarse reticulation, microcystic and macrocystic honeycombing, as well as overall extent of lung abnormality (p < 0.001). Importantly, increased severity of traction bronchiectasis, corrected for extent of parenchymal abnormality, was predictive of poor prognosis regardless of the background pattern of abnormal lung (HR = 1.04, CI = 1.03-1.06, p < 0.001). On bivariate Cox analysis microcystic honeycombing was a more powerful determinant of a poor prognosis than macrocystic honeycombing. In fibrotic IIPs we have shown that increasingly severe traction bronchiectasis is indicative of higher mortality irrespective of the HRCT pattern and extent of disease. Extent of microcystic honeycombing is a more powerful determinant of outcome than macrocystic honeycombing. (orig.)

Changes in Theory-Based Psychological Factors Predict Weight Loss in Women with Class III Obesity Initiating Supported Exercise

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James J. Annesi

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Psychological factors' effect on weight loss is poorly understood, in general, and specifically in the severely obese. Objective. To examine whether a behavioral model based on tenets of social cognitive and self-efficacy theory will increase understanding of the relationship between exercise and weight loss. Methods. Fifty-one women with severe obesity participated in a 24-week exercise and nutrition information treatment and were measured on changes in psychological factors and exercise attendance. Results. A significant portion of the variance in BMI change (adjusted for number of predictors was accounted for by the behavioral model (2adj=0.23. Entry of exercise session attendance only marginally improved the prediction to 0.27. Only 19% of the weight lost was directly attributable to caloric expenditure from exercise. Conclusions. Findings suggest that participation in an exercise program affects weight loss through psychological pathways and, thus, may be important in the behavioral treatment of severe obesity.

Using Wind Tunnels to Predict Bird Mortality in Wind Farms: The Case of Griffon Vultures

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de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F. E.

2012-01-01

Background: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. Methodology/Principal Findings: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topo...

Prediction of mortality based on facial characteristics

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Arnaud Delorme

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Recent studies have shown that characteristics of the face contain a wealth of information about health, age and chronic clinical conditions. Such studies involve objective measurement of facial features correlated with historical health information. But some individuals also claim to be adept at gauging mortality based on a glance at a person’s photograph. To test this claim, we invited 12 such individuals to see if they could determine if a person was alive or dead based solely on a brief examination of facial photographs. All photos used in the experiment were transformed into a uniform gray scale and then counterbalanced across eight categories: gender, age, gaze direction, glasses, head position, smile, hair color, and image resolution. Participants examined 404 photographs displayed on a computer monitor, one photo at a time, each shown for a maximum of 8 seconds. Half of the individuals in the photos were deceased, and half were alive at the time the experiment was conducted. Participants were asked to press a button if they thought the person in a photo was living or deceased. Overall mean accuracy on this task was 53.8%, where 50% was expected by chance (p < 0.004, two-tail. Statistically significant accuracy was independently obtained in 5 of the 12 participants. We also collected 32-channel electrophysiological recordings and observed a robust difference between images of deceased individuals correctly vs. incorrectly classified in the early event related potential at 100 ms post-stimulus onset. Our results support claims of individuals who report that some as-yet unknown features of the face predict mortality. The results are also compatible with claims about clairvoyance and warrants further investigation.

Development and Validation of a Deep Neural Network Model for Prediction of Postoperative In-hospital Mortality.

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Lee, Christine K; Hofer, Ira; Gabel, Eilon; Baldi, Pierre; Cannesson, Maxime

2018-04-17

The authors tested the hypothesis that deep neural networks trained on intraoperative features can predict postoperative in-hospital mortality. The data used to train and validate the algorithm consists of 59,985 patients with 87 features extracted at the end of surgery. Feed-forward networks with a logistic output were trained using stochastic gradient descent with momentum. The deep neural networks were trained on 80% of the data, with 20% reserved for testing. The authors assessed improvement of the deep neural network by adding American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) Physical Status Classification and robustness of the deep neural network to a reduced feature set. The networks were then compared to ASA Physical Status, logistic regression, and other published clinical scores including the Surgical Apgar, Preoperative Score to Predict Postoperative Mortality, Risk Quantification Index, and the Risk Stratification Index. In-hospital mortality in the training and test sets were 0.81% and 0.73%. The deep neural network with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status classification had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, 0.91 (95% CI, 0.88 to 0.93). The highest logistic regression area under the curve was found with a reduced feature set and ASA Physical Status (0.90, 95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93). The Risk Stratification Index had the highest area under the receiver operating characteristics curve, at 0.97 (95% CI, 0.94 to 0.99). Deep neural networks can predict in-hospital mortality based on automatically extractable intraoperative data, but are not (yet) superior to existing methods.

Muscle mass and physical recovery in ICU: innovations for targeting of nutrition and exercise.

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Wischmeyer, Paul E; Puthucheary, Zudin; San Millán, Iñigo; Butz, Daniel; Grocott, Michael P W

2017-08-01

We have significantly improved hospital mortality from sepsis and critical illness in last 10 years; however, over this same period we have tripled the number of 'ICU survivors' going to rehabilitation. Furthermore, as up to half the deaths in the first year following ICU admission occur post-ICU discharge, it is unclear how many of these patients ever returned home or a meaningful quality of life. For those who do survive, recent data reveals many 'ICU survivors' will suffer significant functional impairment or post-ICU syndrome (PICS). Thus, new innovative metabolic and exercise interventions to address PICS are urgently needed. These should focus on optimal nutrition and lean body mass (LBM) assessment, targeted nutrition delivery, anabolic/anticatabolic strategies, and utilization of personalized exercise intervention techniques, such as utilized by elite athletes to optimize preparation and recovery from critical care. New data for novel LBM analysis technique such as computerized tomography scan and ultrasound analysis of LBM are available showing objective measures of LBM now becoming more practical for predicting metabolic reserve and effectiveness of nutrition/exercise interventions. 13C-Breath testing is a novel technique under study to predict infection earlier and predict over-feeding and under-feeding to target nutrition delivery. New technologies utilized routinely by athletes such as muscle glycogen ultrasound also show promise. Finally, the role of personalized cardiopulmonary exercise testing to target preoperative exercise optimization and post-ICU recovery are becoming reality. New innovative techniques are demonstrating promise to target recovery from PICS utilizing a combination of objective LBM and metabolic assessment, targeted nutrition interventions, personalized exercise interventions for prehabilitation and post-ICU recovery. These interventions should provide hope that we will soon begin to create more 'survivors' and fewer victim's post

Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

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Herng-Chia Chiu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression (LR models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation.

Mortality Predicted Accuracy for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients with Hepatic Resection Using Artificial Neural Network

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Chiu, Herng-Chia; Ho, Te-Wei; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Wen-Hsien

2013-01-01

The aim of this present study is firstly to compare significant predictors of mortality for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing resection between artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression (LR) models and secondly to evaluate the predictive accuracy of ANN and LR in different survival year estimation models. We constructed a prognostic model for 434 patients with 21 potential input variables by Cox regression model. Model performance was measured by numbers of significant predictors and predictive accuracy. The results indicated that ANN had double to triple numbers of significant predictors at 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival models as compared with LR models. Scores of accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival estimation models using ANN were superior to those of LR in all the training sets and most of the validation sets. The study demonstrated that ANN not only had a great number of predictors of mortality variables but also provided accurate prediction, as compared with conventional methods. It is suggested that physicians consider using data mining methods as supplemental tools for clinical decision-making and prognostic evaluation. PMID:23737707

Mortality Risk After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: Analysis of the Predictive Accuracy of the Transcatheter Valve Therapy Registry Risk Assessment Model.

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Codner, Pablo; Malick, Waqas; Kouz, Remi; Patel, Amisha; Chen, Cheng-Han; Terre, Juan; Landes, Uri; Vahl, Torsten Peter; George, Isaac; Nazif, Tamim; Kirtane, Ajay J; Khalique, Omar K; Hahn, Rebecca T; Leon, Martin B; Kodali, Susheel

2018-05-08

Risk assessment tools currently used to predict mortality in transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) were designed for patients undergoing cardiac surgery. We aim to assess the accuracy of the TAVI dedicated American College of Cardiology / Transcatheter Valve Therapies (ACC/TVT) risk score in predicting mortality outcomes. Consecutive patients (n=1038) undergoing TAVI at a single institution from 2014 to 2016 were included. The ACC/TVT registry mortality risk score, the Society of Thoracic Surgeons - Patient Reported Outcomes (STS-PROM) score and the EuroSCORE II were calculated for all patients. In hospital and 30-day all-cause mortality rates were 1.3% and 2.9%, respectively. The ACC/TVT risk stratification tool scored higher for patients who died in-hospital than in those who survived the index hospitalization (6.4 ± 4.6 vs. 3.5 ± 1.6, p = 0.03; respectively). The ACC/TVT score showed a high level of discrimination, C-index for in-hospital mortality 0.74, 95% CI [0.59 - 0.88]. There were no significant differences between the performance of the ACC/TVT registry risk score, the EuroSCORE II and the STS-PROM for in hospital and 30-day mortality rates. The ACC/TVT registry risk model is a dedicated tool to aid in the prediction of in-hospital mortality risk after TAVI.

Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise and prediction of cardiovascular events: One stone to kill two birds?

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Tellier, Philippe; Lecouffe, Pascal; Zureik, Mahmoud

2007-01-01

Background: Peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is commonly associated with a high cardiovascular mortality and morbidity as a marker of plurifocal atherosclerosis. Whether exercise thallium perfusion muscular asymmetry in the legs associated with PAD has prognostic value is unknown. Such a hypothesis was evaluated in a prospective study which remains the gold standard in clinical research. Methods and results: Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise (SCPSE) was measured at the end of a maximal or symptom-limited treadmill exercise test in 358 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). During the follow-up period (mean 85.3±32.8 months), 93 cardiovascular events and deaths (incident cases) occurred. Among those incident cases, the percentage of subjects with higher SCPSE values (third tertile) was 45.2%, versus 29.1% in controls (lower tertiles) (p=0.005). In stepwise multivariate analysis performed with the Cox proportional hazards model, previous CAD and SCPSE were the only significant independent predictors of prognosis. The multivariate relative risk of cardiovascular death or event in subjects with higher values of SCPSE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.15-3.21; p<0.01). Conclusions: Scintigraphic calf perfusion asymmetry after exercise was independently associated with incident cardiovascular events in high-risk subjects. This index, which is easily and quickly calculated, could be used for evaluation of cardiovascular risk

Scintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise and prediction of cardiovascular events: One stone to kill two birds?

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Tellier, Philippe; Lecouffe, Pascal; Zureik, Mahmoud

2007-02-01

BackgroundPeripheral arterial disease (PAD) is commonly associated with a high cardiovascular mortality and morbidity as a marker of plurifocal atherosclerosis. Whether exercise thallium perfusion muscular asymmetry in the legs associated with PAD has prognostic value is unknown. Such a hypothesis was evaluated in a prospective study which remains the gold standard in clinical research. Methods and resultsScintigraphic calf perfusion symmetry after exercise (SCPSE) was measured at the end of a maximal or symptom-limited treadmill exercise test in 358 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease (CAD). During the follow-up period (mean 85.3±32.8 months), 93 cardiovascular events and deaths (incident cases) occurred. Among those incident cases, the percentage of subjects with higher SCPSE values (third tertile) was 45.2%, versus 29.1% in controls (lower tertiles) ( p=0.005). In stepwise multivariate analysis performed with the Cox proportional hazards model, previous CAD and SCPSE were the only significant independent predictors of prognosis. The multivariate relative risk of cardiovascular death or event in subjects with higher values of SCPSE was 1.94 (95% CI: 1.15-3.21; p<0.01). ConclusionsScintigraphic calf perfusion asymmetry after exercise was independently associated with incident cardiovascular events in high-risk subjects. This index, which is easily and quickly calculated, could be used for evaluation of cardiovascular risk.

Performance Evaluation of Five Different Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (DIC) Diagnostic Criteria for Predicting Mortality in Patients with Complicated Sepsis.

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Ha, Sang Ook; Park, Sang Hyuk; Hong, Sang Bum; Jang, Seongsoo

2016-11-01

Disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) is a major complication in sepsis patients. We compared the performance of five DIC diagnostic criteria, focusing on the prediction of mortality. One hundred patients with severe sepsis or septic shock admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) were enrolled. Routine DIC laboratory tests were performed over the first 4 days after admission. The overall ICU and 28-day mortality in DIC patients diagnosed from five criteria (International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis [ISTH], the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine [JAAM], the revised JAAM [R-JAAM], the Japanese Ministry of Health and Welfare [JMHW] and the Korean Society on Thrombosis and Hemostasis [KSTH]) were compared. Both KSTH and JMHW criteria showed superior performance than ISTH, JAAM and R-JAAM criteria in the prediction of overall ICU mortality in DIC patients (odds ratio 3.828 and 5.181, P = 0.018 and 0.006, 95% confidence interval 1.256-11.667 and 1.622-16.554, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission, and survival analysis demonstrated significant prognostic impact of KSTH and JMHW criteria on the prediction of 28-day mortality (P = 0.007 and 0.049, respectively) when applied at day 1 after admission. In conclusion, both KSTH and JMHW criteria would be more useful than other three criteria in predicting prognosis in DIC patients with severe sepsis or septic shock.

Aerobic exercise capacity at long-term follow-up after paediatric allogeneic haematopoietic SCT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mathiesen, S; Uhlving, H H; Buchvald, F

2014-01-01

Peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak), a measure of aerobic exercise capacity, predicts mortality and morbidity in healthy and diseased individuals. Our aim was to determine VO2peak years after paediatric allogeneic haematopoietic SCT (HSCT) and to identify associations with baseline patient and donor...... type or GvHD were found. Although causes for reduced VO2peak may be multiple, our findings stress the need to focus on physical activity post HSCT to prevent lifestyle diseases and improve quality of life....

Exercise thallium-201 scintigraphy in men with nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms. Prognostic implications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iskandrian, A.S.; Hakki, A.H.; Kane-Marsch, S.

1986-01-01

We studied the prognostic value of exercise thallium-201 imaging in 196 men with suspected or known coronary artery disease who had nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms. The perfusion images in each of three projections were divided into three segments; each segment was assessed for perfusion defects (fixed or reversible). There were 12 cardiac events at a mean follow-up of 15 months (range, one to 66 months). Of those, five patients died of cardiac causes and seven had nonfatal acute myocardial infarctions (MIs). Only the number of perfusion defects significantly predicted cardiac events; clinical presentation, history of MI, presence of Q-wave MI, exercise duration, and exercise heart rate and double product did not predict cardiac events or add to information provided by the number of defects. Furthermore, actuarial life-table analysis showed that patients with three or more perfusion defects had significantly worse prognoses than patients with fewer than three defects. Exercise thallium-201 imaging helps in risk stratification of men with nondiagnostic exercise electrocardiograms

Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lucas, Manuela; Ferrer, Miguel; Janss, Guyonne F E

2012-01-01

Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed). We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

Comparison of Two Predictive Models for Short-Term Mortality in Patients after Severe Traumatic Brain Injury.

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Kesmarky, Klara; Delhumeau, Cecile; Zenobi, Marie; Walder, Bernhard

2017-07-15

The Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) and the Abbreviated Injury Score of the head region (HAIS) are validated prognostic factors in traumatic brain injury (TBI). The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic performance of an alternative predictive model including motor GCS, pupillary reactivity, age, HAIS, and presence of multi-trauma for short-term mortality with a reference predictive model including motor GCS, pupil reaction, and age (IMPACT core model). A secondary analysis of a prospective epidemiological cohort study in Switzerland including patients after severe TBI (HAIS >3) with the outcome death at 14 days was performed. Performance of prediction, accuracy of discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]), calibration, and validity of the two predictive models were investigated. The cohort included 808 patients (median age, 56; interquartile range, 33-71), median GCS at hospital admission 3 (3-14), abnormal pupil reaction 29%, with a death rate of 29.7% at 14 days. The alternative predictive model had a higher accuracy of discrimination to predict death at 14 days than the reference predictive model (AUROC 0.852, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.824-0.880 vs. AUROC 0.826, 95% CI 0.795-0.857; p predictive model had an equivalent calibration, compared with the reference predictive model Hosmer-Lemeshow p values (Chi2 8.52, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.345 vs. Chi2 8.66, Hosmer-Lemeshow p = 0.372). The optimism-corrected value of AUROC for the alternative predictive model was 0.845. After severe TBI, a higher performance of prediction for short-term mortality was observed with the alternative predictive model, compared with the reference predictive model.

Association of changes in fitness and body composition with cancer mortality in men.

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Zhang, Peizhen; Sui, Xuemei; Hand, Gregory A; Hébert, James R; Blair, Steven N

2014-07-01

Both baseline cardiorespiratory fitness and adiposity predict the risk of cancer mortality. However, the effects of changes in these two factors over time have not been evaluated thoroughly. The aim of this study was to examine the independent and joint associations of changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition on cancer mortality. The cohort consisted of 13,930 men (initially cancer-free) with two or more medical examinations from 1974 to 2002. Cardiorespiratory fitness was assessed by a maximal treadmill exercise test, and body composition was expressed by body mass index (BMI) and percent body fat. Changes in cardiorespiratory fitness and body composition between the baseline and the last examination were classified into loss, stable, and gain groups. There were 386 deaths from cancer during an average of 12.5 yr of follow-up. After adjusting for possible confounders and BMI, change hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of cancer mortality were 0.74 (0.57-0.96) for stable fitness and 0.74 (0.56-0.98) for fitness gain. Inverse dose-response relationships were observed between changes in maximal METs and cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.05). Neither BMI change nor percent body fat change was associated with cancer mortality after adjusting for possible confounders and maximal METs change. In the joint analyses, men who became less fit had a higher risk of cancer mortality (P for linear trend = 0.03) compared with those who became more fit, regardless of BMI change levels. Being unfit or losing cardiorespiratory fitness over time was found to predict cancer mortality in men. Improving or maintaining adequate levels of cardiorespiratory fitness appears to be important for decreasing cancer mortality in men.

Levels of and changes in life satisfaction predict mortality hazards: Disentangling the role of physical health, perceived control, and social orientation.

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Hülür, Gizem; Heckhausen, Jutta; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Infurna, Frank J; Wagner, Gert G; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

2017-09-01

It is well documented that well-being typically evinces precipitous decrements at the end of life. However, research has primarily taken a postdictive approach by knowing the outcome (date of death) and aligning, in retrospect, how well-being has changed for people with documented death events. In the present study, we made use of a predictive approach by examining whether and how levels of and changes in life satisfaction prospectively predict mortality hazards and delineate the role of contributing factors, including health, perceived control, and social orientation. To do so, we applied shared parameter growth-survival models to 20-year longitudinal data from 10,597 participants (n = 1,560 [15%] deceased; age at baseline: M = 44 years, SD = 17, range = 18-98 years) from the national German Socio-Economic Panel Study. Our findings showed that lower levels and steeper declines of life satisfaction each uniquely predicted higher mortality risks. Results also revealed moderating effects of age and perceived control: Life satisfaction levels and changes had stronger predictive effects for mortality hazards among older adults. Perceived control was associated with lower mortality hazards; however, this effect was diminished for those who experienced accelerated life satisfaction decline. Variance decomposition suggests that predictive effects of life satisfaction trajectories were partially unique (3%-6%) and partially shared with physical health, perceived control, and social orientation (17%-19%). Our discussion focuses on the strengths and challenges of a predictive approach to link developmental changes (in life satisfaction) to mortality hazards, and considers implications of our findings for healthy aging. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A comparison of published multidimensional indices to predict outcome in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Sharp

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF has an unpredictable course and prognostic factors are incompletely understood. We aimed to identify prognostic factors, including multidimensional indices from a significant IPF cohort at the Bristol Interstitial Lung Disease Centre in the UK. Patients diagnosed with IPF between 2007 and 2014 were identified. Longitudinal pulmonary physiology and exercise testing results were collated, with all-cause mortality used as the primary outcome. Factors influencing overall, 12- and 24-month survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards modelling and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. We found in this real-world cohort of 167 patients, diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO and initiation of long-term oxygen were independent markers of poor prognosis. Exercise testing results predicted 12-month mortality as well as DLCO, but did not perform as well for overall survival. The Composite Physiological Index was the best performing multidimensional index, but did not outperform DLCO. Our data confirmed that patients who experienced a fall in forced vital capacity (FVC >10% had significantly worse survival after that point (p=0.024. Our data from longitudinal follow-up in IPF show that DLCO is the best individual prognostic marker, outperforming FVC. Exercise testing is important in predicting early poor outcome. Regular and complete review should be conducted to ensure appropriate care is delivered in a timely fashion.

Diet Quality Scores and Prediction of All-Cause, Cardiovascular and Cancer Mortality in a Pan-European Cohort Study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Camille Lassale

Full Text Available Scores of overall diet quality have received increasing attention in relation to disease aetiology; however, their value in risk prediction has been little examined. The objective was to assess and compare the association and predictive performance of 10 diet quality scores on 10-year risk of all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality in 451,256 healthy participants to the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, followed-up for a median of 12.8y. All dietary scores studied showed significant inverse associations with all outcomes. The range of HRs (95% CI in the top vs. lowest quartile of dietary scores in a composite model including non-invasive factors (age, sex, smoking, body mass index, education, physical activity and study centre was 0.75 (0.72-0.79 to 0.88 (0.84-0.92 for all-cause, 0.76 (0.69-0.83 to 0.84 (0.76-0.92 for CVD and 0.78 (0.73-0.83 to 0.91 (0.85-0.97 for cancer mortality. Models with dietary scores alone showed low discrimination, but composite models also including age, sex and other non-invasive factors showed good discrimination and calibration, which varied little between different diet scores examined. Mean C-statistic of full models was 0.73, 0.80 and 0.71 for all-cause, CVD and cancer mortality. Dietary scores have poor predictive performance for 10-year mortality risk when used in isolation but display good predictive ability in combination with other non-invasive common risk factors.

Simple Scoring System to Predict In-Hospital Mortality After Surgery for Infective Endocarditis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gatti, Giuseppe; Perrotti, Andrea; Obadia, Jean-François; Duval, Xavier; Iung, Bernard; Alla, François; Chirouze, Catherine; Selton-Suty, Christine; Hoen, Bruno; Sinagra, Gianfranco; Delahaye, François; Tattevin, Pierre; Le Moing, Vincent; Pappalardo, Aniello; Chocron, Sidney

2017-07-20

Aspecific scoring systems are used to predict the risk of death postsurgery in patients with infective endocarditis (IE). The purpose of the present study was both to analyze the risk factors for in-hospital death, which complicates surgery for IE, and to create a mortality risk score based on the results of this analysis. Outcomes of 361 consecutive patients (mean age, 59.1±15.4 years) who had undergone surgery for IE in 8 European centers of cardiac surgery were recorded prospectively, and a risk factor analysis (multivariable logistic regression) for in-hospital death was performed. The discriminatory power of a new predictive scoring system was assessed with the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Score validation procedures were carried out. Fifty-six (15.5%) patients died postsurgery. BMI >27 kg/m 2 (odds ratio [OR], 1.79; P =0.049), estimated glomerular filtration rate 55 mm Hg (OR, 1.78; P =0.032), and critical state (OR, 2.37; P =0.017) were independent predictors of in-hospital death. A scoring system was devised to predict in-hospital death postsurgery for IE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.780; 95% CI, 0.734-0.822). The score performed better than 5 of 6 scoring systems for in-hospital death after cardiac surgery that were considered. A simple scoring system based on risk factors for in-hospital death was specifically created to predict mortality risk postsurgery in patients with IE. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

The ADOPT-LC score: a novel predictive index of in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following surgical procedures, based on a national survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Sato, Masaya; Tateishi, Ryosuke; Yasunaga, Hideo; Horiguchi, Hiromasa; Matsui, Hiroki; Yoshida, Haruhiko; Fushimi, Kiyohide; Koike, Kazuhiko

2017-03-01

We aimed to develop a model for predicting in-hospital mortality of cirrhotic patients following major surgical procedures using a large sample of patients derived from a Japanese nationwide administrative database. We enrolled 2197 cirrhotic patients who underwent elective (n = 1973) or emergency (n = 224) surgery. We analyzed the risk factors for postoperative mortality and established a scoring system for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients using a split-sample method. In-hospital mortality rates following elective or emergency surgery were 4.7% and 20.5%, respectively. In multivariate analysis, patient age, Child-Pugh (CP) class, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and duration of anesthesia in elective surgery were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. In emergency surgery, CP class and duration of anesthesia were significant factors. Based on multivariate analysis in the training set (n = 987), the Adequate Operative Treatment for Liver Cirrhosis (ADOPT-LC) score that used patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia to predict in-hospital mortality following elective surgery was developed. This scoring system was validated in the testing set (n = 986) and produced an area under the curve of 0.881. We also developed iOS/Android apps to calculate ADOPT-LC scores to allow easy access to the current evidence in daily clinical practice. Patient age, CP class, CCI, and duration of anesthesia were identified as important risk factors for predicting postoperative mortality in cirrhotic patients. The ADOPT-LC score effectively predicts in-hospital mortality following elective surgery and may assist decisions regarding surgical procedures in cirrhotic patients based on a quantitative risk assessment. © 2016 The Authors Hepatology Research published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japan Society of Hepatology.

Using data-driven rules to predict mortality in severe community acquired pneumonia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chuang Wu

Full Text Available Prediction of patient-centered outcomes in hospitals is useful for performance benchmarking, resource allocation, and guidance regarding active treatment and withdrawal of care. Yet, their use by clinicians is limited by the complexity of available tools and amount of data required. We propose to use Disjunctive Normal Forms as a novel approach to predict hospital and 90-day mortality from instance-based patient data, comprising demographic, genetic, and physiologic information in a large cohort of patients admitted with severe community acquired pneumonia. We develop two algorithms to efficiently learn Disjunctive Normal Forms, which yield easy-to-interpret rules that explicitly map data to the outcome of interest. Disjunctive Normal Forms achieve higher prediction performance quality compared to a set of state-of-the-art machine learning models, and unveils insights unavailable with standard methods. Disjunctive Normal Forms constitute an intuitive set of prediction rules that could be easily implemented to predict outcomes and guide criteria-based clinical decision making and clinical trial execution, and thus of greater practical usefulness than currently available prediction tools. The Java implementation of the tool JavaDNF will be publicly available.

Value of geriatric frailty and nutritional status assessment in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery.

Science.gov (United States)

Tegels, Juul J W; de Maat, M F G; Hulsewé, K W E; Hoofwijk, A G M; Stoot, J H M B

2014-03-01

This study seeks to evaluate assessment of geriatric frailty and nutritional status in predicting postoperative mortality in gastric cancer surgery. Preoperatively, patients operated for gastric adenocarcinoma underwent assessment of Groningen Frailty Indicator (GFI) and Short Nutritional Assessment Questionnaire (SNAQ). We studied retrospectively whether these scores were associated with in-hospital mortality. From 2005 to September 2012 180 patients underwent surgery with an overall mortality of 8.3%. Patients with a GFI ≥ 3 (n = 30, 24%) had a mortality rate of 23.3% versus 5.2% in the lower GFI group (OR 4.0, 95%CI 1.1-14.1, P = 0.03). For patients who underwent surgery with curative intent (n = 125), this was 27.3% for patients with GFI ≥ 3 (n = 22, 18%) versus 5.7% with GFI gastric cancer surgical mortality and geriatric frailty as well as nutritional status using a simple questionnaire. This may have implications in preoperative decision making in selecting patients who optimally benefit from surgery.

Ratio of Systolic Blood Pressure to Right Atrial Pressure, a Novel Marker to Predict Morbidity and Mortality in Acute Systolic Heart Failure.

Science.gov (United States)

Omar, Hesham R; Charnigo, Richard; Guglin, Maya

2017-04-01

Congestion is the main contributor to heart failure (HF) morbidity and mortality. We assessed the combined role of congestion and decreased forward flow in predicting morbidity and mortality in acute systolic HF. The Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness trial data set was used to determine if the ratio of simultaneously measured systolic blood pressure (SBP)/right atrial pressure (RAP) on admission predicted HF rehospitalization and 6-month mortality. One hundred ninety-five patients (mean age 56.5 years, 75% men) who received pulmonary artery catheterization were studied. The RAP, SBP, and SBP/RAP had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.593 (p = 0.0205), 0.585 (p = 0.0359), and 0.621 (p = 0.0026), respectively, in predicting HF rehospitalization. The SBP/RAP was a superior marker of HF rehospitalization compared with RAP alone (difference in AUC 0.0289, p = 0.0385). The optimal criterion of SBP/RAP AUC 0.622, p = 0.0108, and a cut-off value of SBP/RAP <8 had a sensitivity of 61.9% and specificity 64.1% in predicting mortality. Multivariate analysis showed that an SBP/RAP <11 independently predicted rehospitalization for HF (estimated odds ratio 3.318, 95% confidence interval 1.692 to 6.506, p = 0.0005) and an SBP/RAP <8 independently predicted mortality (estimated hazard ratio 2.025, 95% confidence interval 1.069 to 3.833, p = 0.030). In conclusion, SBP/RAP ratio is a marker that identifies a spectrum of complications after hospitalization of patients with decompensated systolic HF, starting with increased incidence of HF rehospitalization at SBP/RAP <11 to increased mortality with SBP/RAP <8. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of malnutrition - inflammation score on 1-year mortality in Turkish maintenance hemodialysis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Kara, Ekrem; Sahutoglu, Tuncay; Ahbap, Elbis; Sakaci, Tamer; Koc, Yener; Basturk, Taner; Sevinc, Mustafa; Akgol, Cuneyt; Unsal, Abdulkadir

2016-08-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive value of malnutrition-inflammation score (MIS) on short-term mortality and to identify the best cut-off point in the Turkish maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) population. A total of 100 patients on MHD were included in this prospective single-center study. Demographic, anthropometric, and biochemical data were obtained from all patients. The study population was followed up as a 12-month prospective cohort to evaluate mortality as the primary outcome. Median (IQR) age and HD vintage of 100 patients (M/F: 52/48) were 53 (39.5 - 67) years and 53.5 (11 - 104.7) months, respectively. Deceased patients (n = 7) had significantly older age (years) (50 (38.5 - 63.5) vs. 70 (62 - 82), respectively, p = 0.001), lower spKt/V (1.60 (1.40 - 1.79) vs. 1.35 (0.90 - 1.50), respectively, p = 0.002), lower triceps skinfold thickness (14 (10 - 19) vs. 9 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.021) and higher MIS (5 (4 - 7) vs. 10 (7 - 11), respectively, p = 0.013). In the ROC analysis, we found that the optimal cut-off value of MIS for predicting death was 6.5 with 85.7% sensitivity and 62.4% specificity (positive and negative predictive values were 0.6951 and 0.8136, respectively). Advanced age, low spKt/V, and high MIS were found to be predictors of mortality in multivariate logistic regression analysis. The 1-year mortality rate was significantly higher in MIS > 6.5 group compared to the MIS ≤ 6.5 group (14,3% (6/41) vs. 1.6% (1/59), respectively). Compared to MIS ≤ 6.5 group, 1 year survival time of the patients with MIS > 6.5 was found to be significantly lower (47.8 ± 0.16 vs. 43.6 ± 1.63 weeks, respectively, p (log-rank) = 0.012). MIS is a robust and independent predictor of short-term mortality in MHD patients. Patients with MIS > 6.5 had a significant risk, and additional risk factors associated with short-term mortality were advanced age and low spKt/V.

Predicted vitamin D status and colon cancer recurrence and mortality in CALGB 89803 (Alliance).

Science.gov (United States)

Fuchs, M A; Yuan, C; Sato, K; Niedzwiecki, D; Ye, X; Saltz, L B; Mayer, R J; Mowat, R B; Whittom, R; Hantel, A; Benson, A; Atienza, D; Messino, M; Kindler, H; Venook, A; Innocenti, F; Warren, R S; Bertagnolli, M M; Ogino, S; Giovannucci, E L; Horvath, E; Meyerhardt, J A; Ng, K

2017-06-01

Observational studies suggest that higher levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D) are associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer and improved survival of colorectal cancer patients. However, the influence of vitamin D status on cancer recurrence and survival of patients with stage III colon cancer is unknown. We prospectively examined the influence of post-diagnosis predicted plasma 25(OH)D on outcome among 1016 patients with stage III colon cancer who were enrolled in a National Cancer Institute-sponsored adjuvant therapy trial (CALGB 89803). Predicted 25(OH)D scores were computed using validated regression models. We examined the influence of predicted 25(OH)D scores on cancer recurrence and mortality (disease-free survival; DFS) using Cox proportional hazards. Patients in the highest quintile of predicted 25(OH)D score had an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for colon cancer recurrence or mortality (DFS) of 0.62 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.86), compared with those in the lowest quintile (Ptrend = 0.005). Higher predicted 25(OH)D score was also associated with a significant improvement in recurrence-free survival and overall survival (Ptrend = 0.01 and 0.0004, respectively). The benefit associated with higher predicted 25(OH)D score appeared consistent across predictors of cancer outcome and strata of molecular tumor characteristics, including microsatellite instability and KRAS, BRAF, PIK3CA, and TP53 mutation status. Higher predicted 25(OH)D levels after a diagnosis of stage III colon cancer may be associated with decreased recurrence and improved survival. Clinical trials assessing the benefit of vitamin D supplementation in the adjuvant setting are warranted. NCT00003835. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validity of the CR-POSSUM model in surgery for colorectal cancer in Spain (CCR-CARESS study) and comparison with other models to predict operative mortality.

Science.gov (United States)

Baré, Marisa; Alcantara, Manuel Jesús; Gil, Maria José; Collera, Pablo; Pont, Marina; Escobar, Antonio; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Redondo, Maximino; Briones, Eduardo; Dujovne, Paula; Quintana, Jose Maria

2018-01-29

To validate and recalibrate the CR- POSSUM model and compared its discriminatory capacity with other European models such as POSSUM, P-POSSUM, AFC or IRCS to predict operative mortality in surgery for colorectal cancer. Prospective multicenter cohort study from 22 hospitals in Spain. We included patients undergoing planned or urgent surgery for primary invasive colorectal cancers between June 2010 and December 2012 (N = 2749). Clinical data were gathered through medical chart review. We validated and recalibrated the predictive models using logistic regression techniques. To calculate the discriminatory power of each model, we estimated the areas under the curve - AUC (95% CI). We also assessed the calibration of the models by applying the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. In-hospital mortality was 1.5% and 30-day mortality, 1.7%. In the validation process, the discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting in-hospital mortality was 73.6%. However, in the recalibration process, the AUCs improved slightly: the CR-POSSUM reached 75.5% (95% CI: 67.3-83.7). The discriminatory power of the CR-POSSUM for predicting 30-day mortality was 74.2% (95% CI: 67.1-81.2) after recalibration; among the other models the POSSUM had the greatest discriminatory power, with an AUC of 77.0% (95% CI: 68.9-85.2). The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed good fit for all the recalibrated models. The CR-POSSUM and the other models showed moderate capacity to discriminate the risk of operative mortality in our context, where the actual operative mortality is low. Nevertheless the IRCS might better predict in-hospital mortality, with fewer variables, while the CR-POSSUM could be slightly better for predicting 30-day mortality. Registered at: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02488161.

[Health and exercise: effects of exercise on high blood pressure].

Science.gov (United States)

Ikeda, M; Nanri, H; Himeno, E

1993-09-01

Many factors, such as genetic, psychological, environmental, and socioeconomical factors, influence the health of individuals. Recently behavioral risks which cause preventable chronic diseases or premature death have been increasing. These risk factors are mainly due to living habits, such as over-eating, less exercise and psychological stress. Physical activity or fitness is reported to be inversely associated with morbidity and mortality from chronic diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases diabetes mellitus, cancer and so on. Hypertension has also been reported to be associated with low physical fitness in cross-sectional studies. We have so far reported a significant blood pressure reduction in mild hypertensive patients who completed mild intensity exercise training in well controlled studies. Exercise seemed to modify the multiple factors that might participate in raising and maintaining high blood pressure. The mechanisms of lowering blood pressure by exercise training are mainly due to a depletion of blood volume or the reduction of both cardiac output and the sympathetic tone. They were supported by the evidence of increased levels of prostaglandin E, dopamine, taurine, and decreased levels of plasma norepinephrine and endogenous ouavain-like substance. In this article, we have reviewed the physiological and biochemical roles of exercise, the effects of exercise on high blood pressure, and the hypotensive mechanism of mild aerobic exercise hypertensive patients.

The invisible benefits of exercise.

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Ruby, Matthew B; Dunn, Elizabeth W; Perrino, Andrea; Gillis, Randall; Viel, Sasha

2011-01-01

To examine whether--and why--people underestimate how much they enjoy exercise. Across four studies, 279 adults predicted how much they would enjoy exercising, or reported their actual feelings after exercising. Main outcome measures were predicted and actual enjoyment ratings of exercise routines, as well as intention to exercise. Participants significantly underestimated how much they would enjoy exercising; this affective forecasting bias emerged consistently for group and individual exercise, and moderate and challenging workouts spanning a wide range of forms, from yoga and Pilates to aerobic exercise and weight training (Studies 1 and 2). We argue that this bias stems largely from forecasting myopia, whereby people place disproportionate weight on the beginning of a workout, which is typically unpleasant. We demonstrate that forecasting myopia can be harnessed (Study 3) or overcome (Study 4), thereby increasing expected enjoyment of exercise. Finally, Study 4 provides evidence for a mediational model, in which improving people's expected enjoyment of exercise leads to increased intention to exercise. People underestimate how much they enjoy exercise because of a myopic focus on the unpleasant beginning of exercise, but this tendency can be harnessed or overcome, potentially increasing intention to exercise. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved).

C-reactive protein level predicts mortality in COPD: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Leuzzi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available The prognostic role of baseline C-reactive protein (CRP in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD is controversial. In order to clarify this issue, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the predictive effect of baseline CRP level in COPD patients. 15 eligible articles focusing on late mortality in COPD were included in our study. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis, and assessed heterogeneity and publication bias. We pooled hazard ratio (HR estimates and their 95% confidence intervals on mortality for the comparison between the study-specific highest category of CRP level versus the lowest category. In overall analysis, elevated baseline CRP levels were significantly associated with higher mortality (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.32–1.77, I2=68.7%, p<0.001. Similar results were observed across subgroups. However, higher mortality risk was reported in studies using a cut-off value of 3 mg·L−1 (HR 1.61, 95% CI 1.12–2.30 and in those enrolling an Asiatic population (HR 3.51, 95% CI 1.69–7.31. Our analysis indicates that baseline high CRP level is significantly associated with higher late mortality in patients with COPD. Further prospective controlled studies are needed to confirm these data.

[Risk Prediction Using Routine Data: Development and Validation of Multivariable Models Predicting 30- and 90-day Mortality after Surgical Treatment of Colorectal Cancer].

Science.gov (United States)

Crispin, Alexander; Strahwald, Brigitte; Cheney, Catherine; Mansmann, Ulrich

2018-06-04

Quality control, benchmarking, and pay for performance (P4P) require valid indicators and statistical models allowing adjustment for differences in risk profiles of the patient populations of the respective institutions. Using hospital remuneration data for measuring quality and modelling patient risks has been criticized by clinicians. Here we explore the potential of prediction models for 30- and 90-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery based on routine data. Full census of a major statutory health insurer. Surgical departments throughout the Federal Republic of Germany. 4283 and 4124 insurants with major surgery for treatment of colorectal cancer during 2013 and 2014, respectively. Age, sex, primary and secondary diagnoses as well as tumor locations as recorded in the hospital remuneration data according to §301 SGB V. 30- and 90-day mortality. Elixhauser comorbidities, Charlson conditions, and Charlson scores were generated from the ICD-10 diagnoses. Multivariable prediction models were developed using a penalized logistic regression approach (logistic ridge regression) in a derivation set (patients treated in 2013). Calibration and discrimination of the models were assessed in an internal validation sample (patients treated in 2014) using calibration curves, Brier scores, receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves) and the areas under the ROC curves (AUC). 30- and 90-day mortality rates in the learning-sample were 5.7 and 8.4%, respectively. The corresponding values in the validation sample were 5.9% and once more 8.4%. Models based on Elixhauser comorbidities exhibited the highest discriminatory power with AUC values of 0.804 (95% CI: 0.776 -0.832) and 0.805 (95% CI: 0.782-0.828) for 30- and 90-day mortality. The Brier scores for these models were 0.050 (95% CI: 0.044-0.056) and 0.067 (95% CI: 0.060-0.074) and similar to the models based on Charlson conditions. Regardless of the model, low predicted probabilities were well calibrated, while

Comparison of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score and the Glasgow Coma Scale in predicting mortality in critically ill patients*.

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Wijdicks, Eelco F M; Kramer, Andrew A; Rohs, Thomas; Hanna, Susan; Sadaka, Farid; O'Brien, Jacklyn; Bible, Shonna; Dickess, Stacy M; Foss, Michelle

2015-02-01

Impaired consciousness has been incorporated in prediction models that are used in the ICU. The Glasgow Coma Scale has value but is incomplete and cannot be assessed in intubated patients accurately. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score may be a better predictor of mortality in critically ill patients. Thirteen ICUs at five U.S. hospitals. One thousand six hundred ninety-five consecutive unselected ICU admissions during a six-month period in 2012. Glasgow Coma Scale and Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score were recorded within 1 hour of admission. Baseline characteristics and physiologic components of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system, as well as mortality were linked to Glasgow Coma Scale/Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score information. None. We recruited 1,695 critically ill patients, of which 1,645 with complete data could be linked to data in the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation system. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of predicting ICU mortality using the Glasgow Coma Scale was 0.715 (95% CI, 0.663-0.768) and using the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was 0.742 (95% CI, 0.694-0.790), statistically different (p = 0.001). A similar but nonsignificant difference was found for predicting hospital mortality (p = 0.078). The respiratory and brainstem reflex components of the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score showed a much wider range of mortality than the verbal component of Glasgow Coma Scale. In multivariable models, the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score was more useful than the Glasgow Coma Scale for predicting mortality. The Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score might be a better prognostic tool of ICU mortality than the Glasgow Coma Scale in critically ill patients, most likely a result of incorporating brainstem reflexes and respiration into the Full Outline of UnResponsiveness score.

The derivation and validation of a simple model for predicting in-hospital mortality of acutely admitted patients to internal medicine wards.

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Sakhnini, Ali; Saliba, Walid; Schwartz, Naama; Bisharat, Naiel

2017-06-01

Limited information is available about clinical predictors of in-hospital mortality in acute unselected medical admissions. Such information could assist medical decision-making.To develop a clinical model for predicting in-hospital mortality in unselected acute medical admissions and to test the impact of secondary conditions on hospital mortality.This is an analysis of the medical records of patients admitted to internal medicine wards at one university-affiliated hospital. Data obtained from the years 2013 to 2014 were used as a derivation dataset for creating a prediction model, while data from 2015 was used as a validation dataset to test the performance of the model. For each admission, a set of clinical and epidemiological variables was obtained. The main diagnosis at hospitalization was recorded, and all additional or secondary conditions that coexisted at hospital admission or that developed during hospital stay were considered secondary conditions.The derivation and validation datasets included 7268 and 7843 patients, respectively. The in-hospital mortality rate averaged 7.2%. The following variables entered the final model; age, body mass index, mean arterial pressure on admission, prior admission within 3 months, background morbidity of heart failure and active malignancy, and chronic use of statins and antiplatelet agents. The c-statistic (ROC-AUC) of the prediction model was 80.5% without adjustment for main or secondary conditions, 84.5%, with adjustment for the main diagnosis, and 89.5% with adjustment for the main diagnosis and secondary conditions. The accuracy of the predictive model reached 81% on the validation dataset.A prediction model based on clinical data with adjustment for secondary conditions exhibited a high degree of prediction accuracy. We provide a proof of concept that there is an added value for incorporating secondary conditions while predicting probabilities of in-hospital mortality. Further improvement of the model performance

Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients.

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Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M; Stein, Phyllis K; Blumenthal, James A; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

2017-08-01

Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2-3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4-2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3-1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1-1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Blunted cyclic variation of heart rate predicts mortality risk in post-myocardial infarction, end-stage renal disease, and chronic heart failure patients

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Hayano, Junichiro; Yasuma, Fumihiko; Watanabe, Eiichi; Carney, Robert M.; Stein, Phyllis K.; Blumenthal, James A.; Arsenos, Petros; Gatzoulis, Konstantinos A.; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Ishii, Hideki; Kiyono, Ken; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu; Yoshida, Yutaka; Yuda, Emi; Kodama, Itsuo

2017-01-01

Abstract Aims Cyclic variation of heart rate (CVHR) associated with sleep-disordered breathing is thought to reflect cardiac autonomic responses to apnoeic/hypoxic stress. We examined whether blunted CVHR observed in ambulatory ECG could predict the mortality risk. Methods and results CVHR in night-time Holter ECG was detected by an automated algorithm, and the prognostic relationships of the frequency (FCV) and amplitude (ACV) of CVHR were examined in 717 patients after myocardial infarction (post-MI 1, 6% mortality, median follow-up 25 months). The predictive power was prospectively validated in three independent cohorts: a second group of 220 post-MI patients (post-MI 2, 25.5% mortality, follow-up 45 months); 299 patients with end-stage renal disease on chronic haemodialysis (ESRD, 28.1% mortality, follow-up 85 months); and 100 patients with chronic heart failure (CHF, 35% mortality, follow-up 38 months). Although CVHR was observed in ≥96% of the patients in all cohorts, FCV did not predict mortality in any cohort. In contrast, decreased ACV was a powerful predictor of mortality in the post-MI 1 cohort (hazard ratio [95% CI] per 1 ln [ms] decrement, 2.9 [2.2–3.7], P < 0.001). This prognostic relationship was validated in the post-MI 2 (1.8 [1.4–2.2], P < 0.001), ESRD (1.5 [1.3–1.8], P < 0.001), and CHF (1.4 [1.1–1.8], P = 0.02) cohorts. The prognostic value of ACV was independent of age, gender, diabetes, β-blocker therapy, left ventricular ejection fraction, sleep-time mean R-R interval, and FCV. Conclusion Blunted CVHR detected by decreased ACV in a night-time Holter ECG predicts increased mortality risk in post-MI, ESRD, and CHF patients. PMID:27789562

Cost and mortality impact of an algorithm-driven sepsis prediction system.

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Calvert, Jacob; Hoffman, Jana; Barton, Christopher; Shimabukuro, David; Ries, Michael; Chettipally, Uli; Kerem, Yaniv; Jay, Melissa; Mataraso, Samson; Das, Ritankar

2017-06-01

To compute the financial and mortality impact of InSight, an algorithm-driven biomarker, which forecasts the onset of sepsis with minimal use of electronic health record data. This study compares InSight with existing sepsis screening tools and computes the differential life and cost savings associated with its use in the inpatient setting. To do so, mortality reduction is obtained from an increase in the number of sepsis cases correctly identified by InSight. Early sepsis detection by InSight is also associated with a reduction in length-of-stay, from which cost savings are directly computed. InSight identifies more true positive cases of severe sepsis, with fewer false alarms, than comparable methods. For an individual ICU with 50 beds, for example, it is determined that InSight annually saves 75 additional lives and reduces sepsis-related costs by $560,000. InSight performance results are derived from analysis of a single-center cohort. Mortality reduction results rely on a simplified use case, which fixes prediction times at 0, 1, and 2 h before sepsis onset, likely leading to under-estimates of lives saved. The corresponding cost reduction numbers are based on national averages for daily patient length-of-stay cost. InSight has the potential to reduce sepsis-related deaths and to lead to substantial cost savings for healthcare facilities.

Using wind tunnels to predict bird mortality in wind farms: the case of griffon vultures.

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Manuela de Lucas

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Wind farms have shown a spectacular growth during the last 15 years. Avian mortality through collision with moving rotor blades is well-known as one of the main adverse impacts of wind farms. In Spain, the griffon vulture incurs the highest mortality rates in wind farms. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: As far as we know, this study is the first attempt to predict flight trajectories of birds in order to foresee potentially dangerous areas for wind farm development. We analyse topography and wind flows in relation to flight paths of griffon vultures, using a scaled model of the wind farm area in an aerodynamic wind tunnel, and test the difference between the observed flight paths of griffon vultures and the predominant wind flows. Different wind currents for each wind direction in the aerodynamic model were observed. Simulations of wind flows in a wind tunnel were compared with observed flight paths of griffon vultures. No statistical differences were detected between the observed flight trajectories of griffon vultures and the wind passages observed in our wind tunnel model. A significant correlation was found between dead vultures predicted proportion of vultures crossing those cells according to the aerodynamic model. CONCLUSIONS: Griffon vulture flight routes matched the predominant wind flows in the area (i.e. they followed the routes where less flight effort was needed. We suggest using these kinds of simulations to predict flight paths over complex terrains can inform the location of wind turbines and thereby reduce soaring bird mortality.

Uric acid predicts mortality and ischaemic stroke in subjects with diastolic dysfunction: the Tromsø Study 1994-2013.

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Norvik, Jon V; Schirmer, Henrik; Ytrehus, Kirsti; Storhaug, Hilde M; Jenssen, Trond G; Eriksen, Bjørn O; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Wilsgaard, Tom; Solbu, Marit D

2017-05-01

To investigate whether serum uric acid predicts adverse outcomes in persons with indices of diastolic dysfunction in a general population. We performed a prospective cohort study among 1460 women and 1480 men from 1994 to 2013. Endpoints were all-cause mortality, incident myocardial infarction, and incident ischaemic stroke. We stratified the analyses by echocardiographic markers of diastolic dysfunction, and uric acid was the independent variable of interest. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated per 59 μmol/L increase in baseline uric acid. Multivariable adjusted Cox proportional hazards models showed that uric acid predicted all-cause mortality in subjects with E/A ratio 1.5 (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.09-2.09, P for interaction between E/A ratio category and uric acid = 0.02). Elevated uric acid increased mortality risk in persons with E-wave deceleration time 220 ms (HR 1.46, 95% CI 1.01-2.12 and HR 1.13, 95% CI 1.02-1.26, respectively; P for interaction = 0.04). Furthermore, in participants with isovolumetric relaxation time ≤60 ms, mortality risk was higher with increasing uric acid (HR 4.98, 95% CI 2.02-12.26, P for interaction = 0.004). Finally, elevated uric acid predicted ischaemic stroke in subjects with severely enlarged left atria (HR 1.62, 95% CI 1.03-2.53, P for interaction = 0.047). Increased uric acid was associated with higher all-cause mortality risk in subjects with echocardiographic indices of diastolic dysfunction, and with higher ischaemic stroke risk in persons with severely enlarged left atria.

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for coronary heart disease.

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Anderson, Lindsey; Thompson, David R; Oldridge, Neil; Zwisler, Ann-Dorthe; Rees, Karen; Martin, Nicole; Taylor, Rod S

2016-01-05

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the single most common cause of death globally. However, with falling CHD mortality rates, an increasing number of people live with CHD and may need support to manage their symptoms and prognosis. Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) aims to improve the health and outcomes of people with CHD. This is an update of a Cochrane systematic review previously published in 2011. To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise-based CR (exercise training alone or in combination with psychosocial or educational interventions) compared with usual care on mortality, morbidity and HRQL in patients with CHD.To explore the potential study level predictors of the effectiveness of exercise-based CR in patients with CHD. We updated searches from the previous Cochrane review, by searching Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library, Issue 6, 2014) from December 2009 to July 2014. We also searched MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), CINAHL (EBSCO) and Science Citation Index Expanded (December 2009 to July 2014). We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of exercise-based interventions with at least six months' follow-up, compared with a no exercise control. The study population comprised men and women of all ages who have had a myocardial infarction (MI), coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), or who have angina pectoris, or coronary artery disease. We included RCTs that reported at least one of the following outcomes: mortality, MI, revascularisations, hospitalisations, health-related quality of life (HRQL), or costs. Two review authors independently screened all identified references for inclusion based on the above inclusion and exclusion criteria. One author extracted data from the included trials and assessed their risk of bias; a second review author checked data. We stratified meta-analysis by the duration of follow up of trials, i.e. short-term: 6

The roles of self-efficacy and motivation in the prediction of short- and long-term adherence to exercise among patients with coronary heart disease.

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Slovinec D'Angelo, Monika E; Pelletier, Luc G; Reid, Robert D; Huta, Veronika

2014-11-01

Poor adherence to regular exercise is a documented challenge among people with heart disease. Identifying key determinants of exercise adherence and distinguishing between the processes driving short- and long-term adherence to regular exercise is a valuable endeavor. The purpose of the present study was to test a model of exercise behavior change, which incorporates motivational orientations and self-efficacy for exercise behavior, in the prediction of short- and long-term exercise adherence. Male and female patients (N = 801) hospitalized for coronary heart disease were recruited from 3 tertiary care cardiac centers and followed for a period of 1 year after hospital discharge. A prospective, longitudinal design was used to examine the roles of motivation and self-efficacy (measured at recruitment and at 2 and 6 months after discharge) in the prediction of exercise behavior at 6 and 12 months. Baseline measures of exercise and clinical and demographic covariates were included in the analyses. Structural equation modeling showed that both autonomous motivation and self-efficacy were important determinants of short-term (6-month) exercise behavior regulation, but that only autonomous motivation remained a significant predictor of long-term (12-month) exercise behavior. Self-efficacy partially mediated the relationship between motivation for exercise and 6-month exercise behavior. This research confirmed the roles of autonomous motivation and self-efficacy in the health behavior change process and emphasized the key function of autonomous motivation in exercise maintenance. Theoretical and cardiac rehabilitation program applications of this research are discussed. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Spontaneous evolution in bilirubin levels predicts liver-related mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

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Minjong Lee

Full Text Available The accurate prognostic stratification of alcoholic hepatitis (AH is essential for individualized therapeutic decisions. The aim of this study was to develop a new prognostic model to predict liver-related mortality in Asian AH patients. We conducted a hospital-based, retrospective cohort study using 308 patients with AH between 1999 and 2011 (a derivation cohort and 106 patients with AH between 2005 and 2012 (a validation cohort. The Cox proportional hazards model was constructed to select significant predictors of liver-related death from the derivation cohort. A new prognostic model was internally validated using a bootstrap sampling method. The discriminative performance of this new model was compared with those of other prognostic models using a concordance index in the validation cohort. Bilirubin, prothrombin time, creatinine, potassium at admission, and a spontaneous change in bilirubin levels from day 0 to day 7 (SCBL were incorporated into a model for AH to grade the severity in an Asian patient cohort (MAGIC. For risk stratification, four risk groups were identified with cutoff scores of 29, 37, and 46 based on the different survival probabilities (P<0.001. In addition, MAGIC showed better discriminative performance for liver-related mortality than any other scoring system in the validation cohort. MAGIC can accurately predict liver-related mortality in Asian patients hospitalized for AH. Therefore, SCBL may help us decide whether patients with AH urgently require corticosteroid treatment.

The Ability of the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE IV Score to Predict Mortality in a Single Tertiary Hospital

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Jae Woo Choi

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Background The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II model has been widely used in Korea. However, there have been few studies on the APACHE IV model in Korean intensive care units (ICUs. The aim of this study was to compare the ability of APACHE IV and APACHE II in predicting hospital mortality, and to investigate the ability of APACHE IV as a critical care triage criterion. Methods The study was designed as a prospective cohort study. Measurements of discrimination and calibration were performed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test respectively. We also calculated the standardized mortality ratio (SMR. Results The APACHE IV score, the Charlson Comorbidity index (CCI score, acute respiratory distress syndrome, and unplanned ICU admissions were independently associated with hospital mortality. The calibration, discrimination, and SMR of APACHE IV were good (H = 7.67, P = 0.465; C = 3.42, P = 0.905; AUROC = 0.759; SMR = 1.00. However, the explanatory power of an APACHE IV score >93 alone on hospital mortality was low at 44.1%. The explanatory power was increased to 53.8% when the hospital mortality was predicted using a model that considers APACHE IV >93 scores, medical admission, and risk factors for CCI >3 coincidentally. However, the discriminative ability of the prediction model was unsatisfactory (C index <0.70. Conclusions The APACHE IV presented good discrimination, calibration, and SMR for hospital mortality.

Therapeutic Exercise and Hypertension

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nekky Umera

patients but may not reduce the BP of normotensive individual. Exercise function ... and mortality in all age groups; it also creates major social, personal and financial ... drug therapy by as symptomatic hypertensive and high cost of drugs particularly in a ..... Events in hypertensive patients randomized to doxagosin versus.

Extravasation of contrast (Spot Sign) predicts in-hospital mortality in ruptured arteriovenous malformation.

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Ye, Zengpanpan; Ai, Xiaolin; Zheng, Jun; Hu, Xin; You, Chao; Andrew M, Faramand; Fang, Fang

2017-10-09

The spot sign is a highly specific and sensitive predictor of hematoma expansion in following primary intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Rare cases of the spot sign have been documented in patients with intracranial hemorrhage secondary to arteriovenous malformation (AVM). The purpose of this retrospective study is to assess the accuracy of spot sign in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ruptured AVM. A retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database was performed for patients who presented to West China Hospital with ICH secondary to AVM in the period between January 2009 and September 2016. Two radiologists blinded to the clinical data independently assessed the imaging data, including the presence of spot sign. Statistical analysis using univariate testing, multivariate logistic regression testing, and receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analysis was performed. A total of 116 patients were included. Overall, 18.9% (22/116) of subjects had at least 1 spot sign detected by CT angiography, 7% (8/116) died in hospital, and 27% (31/116) of the patients had a poor outcome after 90 days. The spot sign had a sensitivity of 62.5% and specificity of 84.3% for predicting in-hospital mortality (p = .02, AUC 0.734). No correlation detected between the spot sign and 90-day outcomes under multiple logistic regression (p = .19). The spot sign is an independent predictor for in-hospital mortality. The presence of spot sign did not correlate with the 90 day outcomes in this patient cohort. The results of this report suggest that patients with ruptured AVM with demonstrated the spot sign on imaging must receive aggressive treatment early on due to the high risk of mortality.

The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score to predict 1-year mortality in hospitalized patients with advanced decompensated heart failure.

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Scrutinio, Domenico; Ammirati, Enrico; Guida, Pietro; Passantino, Andrea; Raimondo, Rosa; Guida, Valentina; Sarzi Braga, Simona; Canova, Paolo; Mastropasqua, Filippo; Frigerio, Maria; Lagioia, Rocco; Oliva, Fabrizio

2014-04-01

The acute decompensated heart failure/N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (ADHF/NT-proBNP) score is a validated risk scoring system that predicts mortality in hospitalized heart failure patients with a wide range of left ventricular ejection fractions (LVEFs). We sought to assess discrimination and calibration of the score when applied to patients with advanced decompensated heart failure (AHF). We studied 445 patients hospitalized for AHF, defined by the presence of severe symptoms of worsening HF at admission, severely depressed LVEF, and the need for intravenous diuretic and/or inotropic drugs. The primary outcome was cumulative (in-hospital and post-discharge) mortality and post-discharge 1-year mortality. Separate analyses were performed for patients aged ≤ 70 years. A Seattle Heart Failure Score (SHFS) was calculated for each patient discharged alive. During follow-up, 144 patients (32.4%) died, and 69 (15.5%) underwent heart transplantation (HT) or ventricular assist device (VAD) implantation. After accounting for the competing events (VAD/HT), the ADHF/NT-proBNP score's C-statistic for cumulative mortality was 0.738 in the overall cohort and 0.771 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. The C-statistic for post-discharge mortality was 0.741 and 0.751, respectively. Adding prior (≤6 months) hospitalizations for HF to the score increased the C-statistic for post-discharge mortality to 0.759 in the overall cohort and to 0.774 in patients aged ≤ 70 years. Predicted and observed mortality rates by quartiles of score were highly correlated. The SHFS demonstrated adequate discrimination but underestimated the risk. The ADHF/NT-proBNP risk calculator is available at http://www.fsm.it/fsm/file/NTproBNPscore.zip. Our data suggest that the ADHF/NT-proBNP score may efficiently predict mortality in patients hospitalized with AHF. Copyright © 2014 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Reliability of Modern Scores to Predict Long-Term Mortality After Isolated Aortic Valve Operations.

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Barili, Fabio; Pacini, Davide; D'Ovidio, Mariangela; Ventura, Martina; Alamanni, Francesco; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; Grossi, Claudio; Davoli, Marina; Fusco, Danilo; Perucci, Carlo; Parolari, Alessandro

2016-02-01

Contemporary scores for estimating perioperative death have been proposed to also predict also long-term death. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of the updated European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Predicted Risk of Mortality score, and the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score for predicting long-term mortality in a contemporary cohort of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR). We also sought to develop for each score a simple algorithm based on predicted perioperative risk to predict long-term survival. Complete data on 1,444 patients who underwent isolated AVR in a 7-year period were retrieved from three prospective institutional databases and linked with the Italian Tax Register Information System. Data were evaluated with performance analyses and time-to-event semiparametric regression. Survival was 83.0% ± 1.1% at 5 years and 67.8 ± 1.9% at 8 years. Discrimination and calibration of all three scores both worsened for prediction of death at 1 year and 5 years. Nonetheless, a significant relationship was found between long-term survival and quartiles of scores (p System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, 1.34 (95% CI, 1.28 to 1.40) for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06 to 1.10) for the Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction score. The predicted risk generated by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation II, The Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, and Age, Creatinine, Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction scores cannot also be considered a direct estimate of the long-term risk for death. Nonetheless, the three scores can be used to derive an estimate of long-term risk of death in patients who undergo isolated AVR with the use of a simple algorithm. Copyright © 2016 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Measured glomerular filtration rate does not improve prediction of mortality by cystatin C and creatinine.

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Sundin, Per-Ola; Sjöström, Per; Jones, Ian; Olsson, Lovisa A; Udumyan, Ruzan; Grubb, Anders; Lindström, Veronica; Montgomery, Scott

2017-04-01

Cystatin C may add explanatory power for associations with mortality in combination with other filtration markers, possibly indicating pathways other than glomerular filtration rate (GFR). However, this has not been firmly established since interpretation of associations independent of measured GFR (mGFR) is limited by potential multicollinearity between markers of GFR. The primary aim of this study was to assess associations between cystatin C and mortality, independent of mGFR. A secondary aim was to evaluate the utility of combining cystatin C and creatinine to predict mortality risk. Cox regression was used to assess the associations of cystatin C and creatinine with mortality in 1157 individuals referred for assessment of plasma clearance of iohexol. Since cystatin C and creatinine are inversely related to mGFR, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 were used. After adjustment for mGFR, lower cystatin C - 1 (higher cystatin C concentration) and higher creatinine - 1 (lower creatinine concentration) were independently associated with increased mortality. When nested models were compared, avoiding the potential influence of multicollinearity, the independence of the associations was supported. Among models combining the markers of GFR, adjusted for demographic factors and comorbidity, cystatin C - 1 and creatinine - 1 combined explained the largest proportion of variance in associations with mortality risk ( R 2  = 0.61). Addition of mGFR did not improve the model. Our results suggest that both creatinine and cystatin C have independent associations with mortality not explained entirely by mGFR and that mGFR does not offer a more precise mortality risk assessment than these endogenous filtration markers combined. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

A predictive model for early mortality after surgical treatment of heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis. The EndoSCORE.

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Di Mauro, Michele; Dato, Guglielmo Mario Actis; Barili, Fabio; Gelsomino, Sandro; Santè, Pasquale; Corte, Alessandro Della; Carrozza, Antonio; Ratta, Ester Della; Cugola, Diego; Galletti, Lorenzo; Devotini, Roger; Casabona, Riccardo; Santini, Francesco; Salsano, Antonio; Scrofani, Roberto; Antona, Carlo; Botta, Luca; Russo, Claudio; Mancuso, Samuel; Rinaldi, Mauro; De Vincentiis, Carlo; Biondi, Andrea; Beghi, Cesare; Cappabianca, Giangiuseppe; Tarzia, Vincenzo; Gerosa, Gino; De Bonis, Michele; Pozzoli, Alberto; Nicolini, Francesco; Benassi, Filippo; Rosato, Francesco; Grasso, Elena; Livi, Ugolino; Sponga, Sandro; Pacini, Davide; Di Bartolomeo, Roberto; De Martino, Andrea; Bortolotti, Uberto; Onorati, Francesco; Faggian, Giuseppe; Lorusso, Roberto; Vizzardi, Enrico; Di Giammarco, Gabriele; Marinelli, Daniele; Villa, Emmanuel; Troise, Giovanni; Picichè, Marco; Musumeci, Francesco; Paparella, Domenico; Margari, Vito; Tritto, Francesco; Damiani, Girolamo; Scrascia, Giuseppe; Zaccaria, Salvatore; Renzulli, Attilio; Serraino, Giuseppe; Mariscalco, Giovanni; Maselli, Daniele; Foschi, Massimiliano; Parolari, Alessandro; Nappi, Giannantonio

2017-08-15

The aim of this large retrospective study was to provide a logistic risk model along an additive score to predict early mortality after surgical treatment of patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis (IE). From 2000 to 2015, 2715 patients with native valve endocarditis (NVE) or prosthesis valve endocarditis (PVE) were operated on in 26 Italian Cardiac Surgery Centers. The relationship between early mortality and covariates was evaluated with logistic mixed effect models. Fixed effects are parameters associated with the entire population or with certain repeatable levels of experimental factors, while random effects are associated with individual experimental units (centers). Early mortality was 11.0% (298/2715); At mixed effect logistic regression the following variables were found associated with early mortality: age class, female gender, LVEF, preoperative shock, COPD, creatinine value above 2mg/dl, presence of abscess, number of treated valve/prosthesis (with respect to one treated valve/prosthesis) and the isolation of Staphylococcus aureus, Fungus spp., Pseudomonas Aeruginosa and other micro-organisms, while Streptococcus spp., Enterococcus spp. and other Staphylococci did not affect early mortality, as well as no micro-organisms isolation. LVEF was found linearly associated with outcomes while non-linear association between mortality and age was tested and the best model was found with a categorization into four classes (AUC=0.851). The following study provides a logistic risk model to predict early mortality in patients with heart valve or prosthesis infective endocarditis undergoing surgical treatment, called "The EndoSCORE". Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Exercising for Life? Energy Metabolism, Body Composition, and Longevity in Mice Exercising at Different Intensities

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Vaanholt, Lobke M.; Daan, Serge; Garland, Theodore; Visser, G. Henk; Garland Jr., Theodore

2010-01-01

Studies that have found a positive influence of moderate, non-exhaustive exercise on life expectancy contradict the rate-of-living theory, which predicts that high energy expenditure in exercising animals should shorten life. We investigated effects of exercise on energy metabolism and life span in

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

Development and validation of multivariable models to predict mortality and hospitalization in patients with heart failure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voors, Adriaan A.; Ouwerkerk, Wouter; Zannad, Faiez; van Veldhuisen, Dirk J.; Samani, Nilesh J.; Ponikowski, Piotr; Ng, Leong L.; Metra, Marco; ter Maaten, Jozine M.; Lang, Chim C.; Hillege, Hans L.; van der Harst, Pim; Filippatos, Gerasimos; Dickstein, Kenneth; Cleland, John G.; Anker, Stefan D.; Zwinderman, Aeilko H.

2017-01-01

Introduction From a prospective multicentre multicountry clinical trial, we developed and validated risk models to predict prospective all-cause mortality and hospitalizations because of heart failure (HF) in patients with HF. Methods and results BIOSTAT-CHF is a research programme designed to

The Rural Inpatient Mortality Study: Does Urban-Rural County Classification Predict Hospital Mortality in California?

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Linnen, Daniel T; Kornak, John; Stephens, Caroline

2018-03-28

Evidence suggests an association between rurality and decreased life expectancy. To determine whether rural hospitals have higher hospital mortality, given that very sick patients may be transferred to regional hospitals. In this ecologic study, we combined Medicare hospital mortality ratings (N = 1267) with US census data, critical access hospital classification, and National Center for Health Statistics urban-rural county classifications. Ratings included mortality for coronary artery bypass grafting, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, heart attack, heart failure, and pneumonia across 277 California hospitals between July 2011 and June 2014. We used generalized estimating equations to evaluate the association of urban-rural county classifications on mortality ratings. Unfavorable Medicare hospital mortality rating "worse than the national rate" compared with "better" or "same." Compared with large central "metro" (metropolitan) counties, hospitals in medium-sized metro counties had 6.4 times the odds of rating "worse than the national rate" for hospital mortality (95% confidence interval = 2.8-14.8, p centers may contribute to these results, a potential factor that future research should examine.

The predictive capacity of the theory of reasoned action and the theory of planned behavior in exercise research: an integrated literature review.

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Blue, C L

1995-04-01

Although the association between habitual exercise and health benefits has been well documented, physical activity levels in the United States are lower than is necessary to reach the nation's health potential. Beliefs that people hold can be a motivating factor in engaging in exercise. A critical review of the literature was conducted to assess the efficacy of using the Theory of Reasoned Action and the Theory of Planned Behavior with respect to exercise. Evidence for the predictive utility of the theories was found. The Theory of Planned Behavior is a more promising framework for the study of exercise because it includes beliefs about control of factors that would facilitate or inhibit carrying out exercise. Strategies for use of the theories in planning exercise programs are provided and suggestions for future research discussed.

Heart Rate Variability Density Analysis (Dyx) and Prediction of Long-Term Mortality after Acute Myocardial Infarction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Rikke Mørch; Abildstrøm, Steen Z; Levitan, Jacob

2016-01-01

AIMS: The density HRV parameter Dyx is a new heart rate variability (HRV) measure based on multipole analysis of the Poincaré plot obtained from RR interval time series, deriving information from both the time and frequency domain. Preliminary results have suggested that the parameter may provide...... new predictive information on mortality in survivors of acute myocardial infarction (MI). This study compares the prognostic significance of Dyx to that of traditional linear and nonlinear measures of HRV. METHODS AND RESULTS: In the Nordic ICD pilot study, patients with an acute MI were screened...... with 2D echocardiography and 24-hour Holter recordings. The study was designed to assess the power of several HRV measures to predict mortality. Dyx was tested in a subset of 206 consecutive Danish patients with analysable Holter recordings. After a median follow-up of 8.5 years 70 patients had died...

Macrophage activation markers predict mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis without or with acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF)

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grønbæk, Henning; Rødgaard-Hansen, Sidsel; Aagaard, Niels Kristian

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Activation of liver macrophages plays a key role in liver and systemic inflammation and may be involved in development and prognosis of acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF). We therefore measured the circulating macrophage activation markers soluble sCD163 and mannose receptor......-C ACLF and CLIF-C AD scores. Addition of the macrophage markers to the clinical scores improved the prognostic efficacy: In ACLF patients sCD163 improved prediction of short-term mortality (C-index: 0.74 (0.67-0.80)) and in patients without ACLF sMR improved prediction of long-term mortality (C-index: 0.......80 (0.76-0.85)). CONCLUSIONS: The severity related increase in sCD163 and sMR and close association with mortality suggest a primary importance of inflammatory activation of liver macrophages in the emergence and course of ACLF. Accordingly, supplementation of the macrophage biomarkers to the platform...

Dead or Alive? Using Membrane Failure and Chlorophyll a Fluorescence to Predict Plant Mortality from Drought.

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Guadagno, Carmela R; Ewers, Brent E; Speckman, Heather N; Aston, Timothy Llewellyn; Huhn, Bridger J; DeVore, Stanley B; Ladwig, Joshua T; Strawn, Rachel N; Weinig, Cynthia

2017-09-01

Climate models predict widespread increases in both drought intensity and duration in the next decades. Although water deficiency is a significant determinant of plant survival, limited understanding of plant responses to extreme drought impedes forecasts of both forest and crop productivity under increasing aridity. Drought induces a suite of physiological responses; however, we lack an accurate mechanistic description of plant response to lethal drought that would improve predictive understanding of mortality under altered climate conditions. Here, proxies for leaf cellular damage, chlorophyll a fluorescence, and electrolyte leakage were directly associated with failure to recover from drought upon rewatering in Brassica rapa (genotype R500) and thus define the exact timing of drought-induced death. We validated our results using a second genotype (imb211) that differs substantially in life history traits. Our study demonstrates that whereas changes in carbon dynamics and water transport are critical indicators of drought stress, they can be unrelated to visible metrics of mortality, i.e. lack of meristematic activity and regrowth. In contrast, membrane failure at the cellular scale is the most proximate cause of death. This hypothesis was corroborated in two gymnosperms ( Picea engelmannii and Pinus contorta ) that experienced lethal water stress in the field and in laboratory conditions. We suggest that measurement of chlorophyll a fluorescence can be used to operationally define plant death arising from drought, and improved plant characterization can enhance surface model predictions of drought mortality and its consequences to ecosystem services at a global scale. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

Exercise and Sarcopenia.

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Phu, Steven; Boersma, Derek; Duque, Gustavo

2015-01-01

Sarcopenia is a major component of the frailty syndrome and is also a strong predictor of disability, morbidity, and mortality in older persons. Without any available pharmacological intervention to sarcopenia, non-pharmacological interventions are the only option to prevent these poor outcomes in sarcopenic patients. Among those interventions, physical activity with or without protein supplementation has demonstrated to be effective in improving muscle mass and function and in preventing disability and frailty in older persons. Additionally, to the beneficial effect of physical activity on metabolic and cardiovascular diseases, a regular exercise program (3 times/wk) that includes resistance and endurance exercise training would have a major positive effect on sarcopenic muscle through improving muscle mass, strength, and function. In this review, we looked at the effect of exercise on sarcopenic frail older persons from the biological aspects of the response of the muscle to exercise to some practical aspects of exercise prescription in this high-risk population. We conclude that, although challenging, older persons should be encouraged to participate in this type of programs, which would improve not only their function and independence but also their quality of life. Copyright © 2015 The International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal associations between exercise identity and exercise motivation: A multilevel growth curve model approach.

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Ntoumanis, N; Stenling, A; Thøgersen-Ntoumani, C; Vlachopoulos, S; Lindwall, M; Gucciardi, D F; Tsakonitis, C

2018-02-01

Past work linking exercise identity and exercise motivation has been cross-sectional. This is the first study to model the relations between different types of exercise identity and exercise motivation longitudinally. Understanding the dynamic associations between these sets of variables has implications for theory development and applied research. This was a longitudinal survey study. Participants were 180 exercisers (79 men, 101 women) from Greece, who were recruited from fitness centers and were asked to complete questionnaires assessing exercise identity (exercise beliefs and role-identity) and exercise motivation (intrinsic, identified, introjected, external motivation, and amotivation) three times within a 6 month period. Multilevel growth curve modeling examined the role of motivational regulations as within- and between-level predictors of exercise identity, and a model in which exercise identity predicted exercise motivation at the within- and between-person levels. Results showed that within-person changes in intrinsic motivation, introjected, and identified regulations were positively and reciprocally related to within-person changes in exercise beliefs; intrinsic motivation was also a positive predictor of within-person changes in role-identity but not vice versa. Between-person differences in the means of predictor variables were predictive of initial levels and average rates of change in the outcome variables. The findings show support to the proposition that a strong exercise identity (particularly exercise beliefs) can foster motivation for behaviors that reinforce this identity. We also demonstrate that such relations can be reciprocal overtime and can depend on the type of motivation in question as well as between-person differences in absolute levels of these variables. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of mortality using on-line, self-reported health data: empirical test of the RealAge score.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William R Hobbs

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: We validate an online, personalized mortality risk measure called "RealAge" assigned to 30 million individuals over the past 10 years. METHODS: 188,698 RealAge survey respondents were linked to California Department of Public Health death records using a one-way cryptographic hash of first name, last name, and date of birth. 1,046 were identified as deceased. We used Cox proportional hazards models and receiver operating characteristic (ROC curves to estimate the relative scales and predictive accuracies of chronological age, the RealAge score, and the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (HCHD in this data. To address concerns about selection and to examine possible heterogeneity, we compared the results by time to death at registration, underlying cause of death, and relative health among users. RESULTS: THE REALAGE SCORE IS ACCURATELY SCALED (HAZARD RATIOS: age 1.076; RealAge-age 1.084 and more accurate than chronological age (age c-statistic: 0.748; RealAge c-statistic: 0.847 in predicting mortality from hard coronary heart disease following survey completion. The score is more accurate than the Framingham ATP-III score for hard coronary heart disease (c-statistic: 0.814, perhaps because self-reported cholesterol levels are relatively uninformative in the RealAge user sample. RealAge predicts deaths from malignant neoplasms, heart disease, and external causes. The score does not predict malignant neoplasm deaths when restricted to users with no smoking history, no prior cancer diagnosis, and no indicated health interest in cancer (p-value 0.820. CONCLUSION: The RealAge score is a valid measure of mortality risk in its user population.

Prediction of Mortality after Emergent Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement: Use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Asian Patients with Refractory Variceal Hemorrhage

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Tzeng, Wen Sheng; Wu, Reng Hong; Lin, Ching Yih; Chen, Jyh Jou; Sheu, Ming Juen; Koay, Lok Beng; Lee, Chuan [Chi-Mei Foundation Medical Center, Tainan (China)

2009-10-15

This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p < 0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that a Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p < 0.05). APACHE II scores could only predict mortality at 360 days (p < 0.05). A Child-Pugh score > 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population.

Predictive factors of adherence to frequency and duration components in home exercise programs for neck and low back pain: an observational study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jimeno-Serrano Francisco J

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Evidence suggests that to facilitate physical activity sedentary people may adhere to one component of exercise prescriptions (intensity, duration or frequency without adhering to other components. Some experts have provided evidence for determinants of adherence to different components among healthy people. However, our understanding remains scarce in this area for patients with neck or low back pain. The aims of this study are to determine whether patients with neck or low back pain have different rates of adherence to exercise components of frequency per week and duration per session when prescribed with a home exercise program, and to identify if adherence to both exercise components have distinct predictive factors. Methods A cohort of one hundred eighty-four patients with chronic neck or low back pain who attended physiotherapy in eight primary care centers were studied prospectively one month after intervention. The study had three measurement periods: at baseline (measuring characteristics of patients and pain, at the end of physiotherapy intervention (measuring characteristics of the home exercise program and a month later (measuring professional behaviors during clinical encounters, environmental factors and self-efficacy, and adherence behavior. Results Adherence to duration per session (70.9% ± 7.1 was more probable than adherence to frequency per week (60.7% ± 7.0. Self-efficacy was a relevant factor for both exercise components (p Conclusion We have shown in a clinic-based study that adherence to exercise prescription frequency and duration components have distinct levels and predictive factors. We recommend additional study, and advise that differential attention be given in clinical practice to each exercise component for improving adherence.

CT pulmonary angiography findings that predict 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

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Bach, Andreas Gunter, E-mail: mail@andreas-bach.de [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Nansalmaa, Baasai; Kranz, Johanna [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Taute, Bettina-Maria [Department of Internal Medicine, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany); Wienke, Andreas [Institute of Medical Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Informatics, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Magdeburger-Str. 8, 06112 Halle (Germany); Schramm, Dominik; Surov, Alexey [Department of Radiology, Martin-Luther-University Halle-Wittenberg, Ernst-Grube-Str. 40, 06120 Halle (Germany)

2015-02-15

Highlights: • In patients with acute pulmonary embolism contrast reflux in inferior vena cava is significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). • This finding is independent from the following comorbidities: heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust radiologic method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism. • Measurement of contrast reflux is a better predictor of 30-day mortality after acute pulmonary embolism than any other existing radiologic predictor. This includes thrombus distribution, and morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. - Abstract: Purpose: Standard computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) can be used to diagnose acute pulmonary embolism. In addition, multiple findings at CTPA have been proposed as potential tools for risk stratification. Therefore, the aim of the present study is to examine the prognostic value of (I) thrombus distribution, (II) morphometric parameters of right ventricular dysfunction, and (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava on 30-day mortality. Material and methods: In a retrospective, single-center study from 06/2005 to 01/2010 365 consecutive patients were included. Inclusion criteria were: presence of acute pulmonary embolism, and availability of 30-day follow-up. A review of patient charts and images was performed. Results: There were no significant differences between the group of 326 survivors and 39 non-survivors in (I) thrombus distribution, and (II) morphometric measurements of right ventricular dysfunction. However, (III) contrast reflux in inferior vena cava was significantly stronger in non-survivors (odds ratio 3.29; p < 0.001). Results were independent from comorbidities like heart insufficiency and pulmonary hypertension. Conclusion: Measurement of contrast reflux is a new and robust method for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with acute pulmonary

The Low Fall as a Surrogate Marker of Frailty Predicts Long-Term Mortality in Older Trauma Patients.

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Ting Hway Wong

Full Text Available Frailty is associated with adverse outcomes including disability, mortality and risk of falls. Trauma registries capture a broad range of injuries. However, frail patients who fall comprise a large proportion of the injuries occurring in ageing populations and are likely to have different outcomes compared to non-frail injured patients. The effect of frail fallers on mortality is under-explored but potentially significant. Currently, many trauma registries define low falls as less than three metres, a height that is likely to include non-frailty falls. We hypothesized that the low fall from less than 0.5 metres, including same-level falls, is a surrogate marker of frailty and predicts long-term mortality in older trauma patients.Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011-2013, matched till September 2014 to the death registry, we analysed adults aged over 45 admitted via the emergency department in public hospitals sustaining blunt injuries with an injury severity score (ISS of 9 or more, excluding isolated hip fractures from same-level falls in the over 65. Patients injured by a low fall were compared to patients injured by high fall and other blunt mechanisms. Logistic regression was used to analyze 12-month mortality, controlling for mechanism of injury, ISS, revised trauma score (RTS, co-morbidities, gender, age and age-gender interaction. Different low fall height definitions, adjusting for injury regions, and analyzing the entire adult cohort were used in sensitivity analyses and did not change our findings.Of the 8111 adults in our cohort, patients who suffered low falls were more likely to die of causes unrelated to their injuries (p<0.001, compared to other blunt trauma and higher fall heights. They were at higher risk of 12-month mortality (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.58, p = 0.005, independent of ISS, RTS, age, gender, age-gender interaction and co-morbidities. Falls that were higher than 0.5m did not show this pattern

Prediction of five-year all-cause mortality in Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus - A population-based retrospective cohort study.

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Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2017-06-01

This study aimed to develop and validate an all-cause mortality risk prediction model for Chinese primary care patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM) in Hong Kong. A population-based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 132,462 Chinese patients who had received public primary care services during 2010. Each gender sample was randomly split on a 2:1 basis into derivation and validation cohorts and was followed-up for a median period of 5years. Gender-specific mortality risk prediction models showing the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox proportional hazards regression with forward stepwise approach. Developed models were compared with pre-existing models by Harrell's C-statistic and calibration plot using validation cohort. Common predictors of increased mortality risk in both genders included: age; smoking habit; diabetes duration; use of anti-hypertensive agents, insulin and lipid-lowering drugs; body mass index; hemoglobin A1c; systolic blood pressure(BP); total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol ratio; urine albumin to creatinine ratio(urine ACR); and estimated glomerular filtration rate(eGFR). Prediction models showed better discrimination with Harrell"'s C-statistics of 0.768(males) and 0.782(females) and calibration power from the plots than previously established models. Our newly developed gender-specific models provide a more accurate predicted 5-year mortality risk for Chinese diabetic patients than other established models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Gender differences in the predictive role of self-rated health on short-term risk of mortality among older adults

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shervin Assari

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Objectives: Despite the well-established association between self-rated health and mortality, research findings have been inconsistent regarding how men and women differ on this link. Using a national sample in the United States, this study compared American male and female older adults for the predictive role of baseline self-rated health on the short-term risk of mortality. Methods: This longitudinal study followed 1500 older adults (573 men (38.2% and 927 women (61.8% aged 66 years or older for 3 years from 2001 to 2004. The main predictor of interest was self-rated health, which was measured using a single item in 2001. The outcome was the risk of all-cause mortality during the 3-year follow-up period. Demographic factors (race and age, socio-economic factors (education and marital status, and health behaviors (smoking and drinking were covariates. Gender was the focal moderator. We ran logistic regression models in the pooled sample and also stratified by gender, with self-rated health treated as either nominal variables, poor compared to other levels (i.e. fair, good, or excellent or excellent compared to other levels (i.e. good, fair, or poor, or an ordinal variable. Results: In the pooled sample, baseline self-rated health predicted mortality risk, regardless of how the variable was treated. We found a significant interaction between gender and poor self-rated health, indicating a stronger effect of poor self-rated health on mortality risk for men compared to women. Gender did not interact with excellent self-rated health on mortality. Conclusion: Perceived poor self-rated health better reflects risk of mortality over a short period of time for older men compared to older women. Clinicians may need to take poor self-rated health of older men very seriously. Future research should test whether the differential predictive validity of self-rated health based on gender is due to a different meaning of poor self-rated health for older men

[Risk factors associated with long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index].

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Zhou, Haixia; Tang, Yangjiang; Wang, Lan; Shi, Chaoli; Feng, Yulin; Yi, Qun

2016-01-26

To explore the risk factors associated with long-term mortality and the predictive value of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) for long-term mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism (PE). A total of 234 patients with confirmed PE from the medical departments of West China Hospital of Sichuan University from January 2010 and December 2012 were enrolled, and these meeting the inclusion criteria were followed-up for 2 years after discharge. The long-term mortality was calculated and univariate and multivariate analysis were performed to identify the risk factors associated with long-term mortality of PE. All the patients were assessed the comorbidity burden with the CCI, and survival analysis was used to study its value in predicting long-term mortality in patients with PE. A total of 176 PE patients were finally included in this study, and 53 patients died during the follow-up period, with 2 years' mortality 30.1%. The univariate analysis showed diabetes (P=0.034), malignant neoplasm (P=0.001), chronic lung disease (P=0.035), liver disease (P=0.048), in bed for a long time (P=0.049), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (P=0.016) were associated with the long-term mortality of PE patients. Among these risk factors, the multivariate analysis revealed malignant neoplasm (OR=9.28, 95%CI: 2.85-31.00, P=0.003), chronic lung disease (OR=2.96, 95%CI: 1.15-7.62, P=0.024), inappropriate anticoagulant therapy (OR=4.08, 95%CI: 1.64-10.20, P=0.003) were the independent risk factors. The median CCI scores for died PE patients during follow-up was higher than that for the survived PE patients ((2(1, 3) vs 1(0, 2), Prisk of long-term mortality compared with patients with no comorbidity (CCI=0) (95%CI: 1.14-6.00, P=0.024). The per 1-score increase of CCI was associated with 1.76-fold increased risk of long-term mortality in PE patients (95%CI: 1.04-2.97, P=0.035). Survival analysis showed that the 2-year cumulative survival of PE patients with CCI score≥1 was significant lower

Symptoms of depression and anxiety predict mortality in patients undergoing oral anticoagulation: Results from the thrombEVAL study program.

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Michal, Matthias; Prochaska, Jürgen H; Keller, Karsten; Göbel, Sebastian; Coldewey, Meike; Ullmann, Alexander; Schulz, Andreas; Lamparter, Heidrun; Münzel, Thomas; Reiner, Iris; Beutel, Manfred E; Wild, Philipp S

2015-01-01

Depression and anxiety are highly prevalent in cardiovascular patients. Therefore, we examined whether the 4-item Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4, measuring symptoms of depression and anxiety) predicts all-cause mortality in outpatients with long-term oral anticoagulation (OAC). The sample comprised n=1384 outpatients from a regular medical care setting receiving long-term OAC with vitamin K antagonists. At baseline, symptoms of anxiety and depression were assessed with the PHQ-4 and the past medical history was taken. The outcome was all-cause mortality in the 24 month observation period. The median follow-up time was 13.3 months. N=191 patients from n=1384 died (death rate 13.8%). Each point increase in the PHQ-4 score was associated with a 10% increase in mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.10, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.05-1.16) after adjustment for age, sex, high school graduation, partnership, smoking, obesity, frailty according to the Barthel Index, Charlson Comorbidity Index and CHA2DS2-VASc score. The depression component (PHQ-2) increased mortality by 22% and anxiety (GAD-2) by 11% respectively. Neither medical history of any mental disorder, nor intake of antidepressants, anxiolytics or hypnotics predicted excess mortality. Elevated symptoms of depression and, to a lesser degree, symptoms of anxiety are independently associated with all-cause mortality in OAC outpatients. The PHQ-4 questionnaire provides valuable prognostic information. These findings emphasize the need for implementing regular screening procedures and the development and evaluation of appropriate psychosocial treatment approaches for OAC patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Five year experience in management of perforated peptic ulcer and validation of common mortality risk prediction models - are existing models sufficient? A retrospective cohort study.

Science.gov (United States)

Anbalakan, K; Chua, D; Pandya, G J; Shelat, V G

2015-02-01

Emergency surgery for perforated peptic ulcer (PPU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Accurate and early risk stratification is important. The primary aim of this study is to validate the various existing MRPMs and secondary aim is to audit our experience of managing PPU. 332 patients who underwent emergency surgery for PPU at a single intuition from January 2008 to December 2012 were studied. Clinical and operative details were collected. Four MRPMs: American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) score, Boey's score, Mannheim peritonitis index (MPI) and Peptic ulcer perforation (PULP) score were validated. Median age was 54.7 years (range 17-109 years) with male predominance (82.5%). 61.7% presented within 24 h of onset of abdominal pain. Median length of stay was 7 days (range 2-137 days). Intra-abdominal collection, leakage, re-operation and 30-day mortality rates were 8.1%, 2.1%, 1.2% and 7.2% respectively. All the four MRPMs predicted intra-abdominal collection and mortality; however, only MPI predicted leak (p = 0.01) and re-operation (p = 0.02) rates. The area under curve for predicting mortality was 75%, 72%, 77.2% and 75% for ASA score, Boey's score, MPI and PULP score respectively. Emergency surgery for PPU has low morbidity and mortality in our experience. MPI is the only scoring system which predicts all - intra-abdominal collection, leak, reoperation and mortality. All four MRPMs had a similar and fair accuracy to predict mortality, however due to geographic and demographic diversity and inherent weaknesses of exiting MRPMs, quest for development of an ideal model should continue. Copyright © 2015 Surgical Associates Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical Utility of Exercise Training in Heart Failure with Reduced and Preserved Ejection Fraction

Science.gov (United States)

Asrar Ul Haq, Muhammad; Goh, Cheng Yee; Levinger, Itamar; Wong, Chiew; Hare, David L

2015-01-01

Reduced exercise tolerance is an independent predictor of hospital readmission and mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). Exercise training for HF patients is well established as an adjunct therapy, and there is sufficient evidence to support the favorable role of exercise training programs for HF patients over and above the optimal medical therapy. Some of the documented benefits include improved functional capacity, quality of life (QoL), fatigue, and dyspnea. Major trials to assess exercise training in HF have, however, focused on heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFREF). At least half of the patients presenting with HF have heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF) and experience similar symptoms of exercise intolerance, dyspnea, and early fatigue, and similar mortality risk and rehospitalization rates. The role of exercise training in the management of HFPEF remains less clear. This article provides a brief overview of pathophysiology of reduced exercise tolerance in HFREF and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFPEF), and summarizes the evidence and mechanisms by which exercise training can improve symptoms and HF. Clinical and practical aspects of exercise training prescription are also discussed. PMID:25698883

Comparison of early thallium-201 scintigraphy and gated blood pool imaging for predicting mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Becker, L.C.; Silverman, K.J.; Bulkley, B.H.; Kallman, C.H.; Mellits, E.D.; Weisfeldt, M.

1983-01-01

The extent of abnormality in early thallium-201 and gated cardiac blood pool scintigrams has been reported to be useful for predicting mortality in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To compare the two techniques, 91 patients admitted consecutively with evident or strongly suspected AMI underwent both imaging studies within 15 hours of the onset of symptoms. Patients with pulmonary edema or shock were excluded. AMI developed in 84% of patients, and 6-month mortality for the entire group was 16%. A thallium defect score of 7.0 or greater identified a subgroup of 14 patients with 64% 6-month mortality rate. Similarly, a left ventricular ejection fraction of 35% or less identified a high-risk subgroup of 10 patients with a 6-month mortality of 60%. Mortality in the remaining patients was 8% for thallium score less than 7 and 11% for ejection fraction greater than 35%. The mortality rate was highest among patients who had concordant high-risk scintigrams (five of six, 83%), lowest in those with concordant low-risk studies (five of 64, 8%) and intermediate in those with discordant results (four of 11, 36%). Of a number of clinical variables, only the appearance of Q waves, peak creatine kinase greater than 1000 IU/I, and history of infarction were significantly associated with mortality. High-risk thallium or blood pool scintigraphic results were significantly more predictive and a thallium score of 7 or greater was more sensitive for detecting nonsurvivors than ejection fraction 35% or less at a similar level of specificity

Predictive value of a profile of routine blood measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population: the Leiden 85-plus Study.

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Anne H van Houwelingen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Various questionnaires and performance tests predict mortality in older people. However, most are heterogeneous, laborious and a validated consensus index is not available yet. Since most older people are regularly monitored by laboratory tests, we compared the predictive value of a profile of seven routine laboratory measurements on mortality in older persons in the general population with other predictors of mortality; gait speed and disability in instrumental activities of daily living (IADL. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Within the Leiden 85-plus Study, a prospective population-based study, we followed 562 participants aged 85 years for mortality over five years. At baseline (age 85 years high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, albumin, alanine transaminase, hemoglobin, creatinin clearance, C-reactive protein and homocysteine were measured. Participants were stratified based on their number of laboratory abnormalities (0, 1, 2-4 and 5-7. The predictive capacity was compared with gait speed (6-meter walking test and disability in IADL (Groningen Activity Restriction Scale by C-statistics. At baseline, 418 (74% 85-year old participants had at least one laboratory abnormality. All cause mortality risk increased with increasing number of laboratory abnormalities to a hazard ratio of 5.64 [95% CI 3.49-9.12] for those with 5-7 laboratory abnormalities (p<0.001 compared to those without abnormalities. The c-statistic was 0.66 [95% CI 0.59-0.69], similar to that of gait speed and disability in IADL. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the general population of oldest old, the number of abnormalities in seven routine laboratory measurements predicts five-year mortality as accurately as gait speed and IADL disability.

Prediction of 6-year prognosis for cardiac event by thallium-201 single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with treadmill exercise test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayashi, Katsumi; Ohsuzu, Fumitaka; Kosuda, Shigeru; Nakamura, Haruo

1997-01-01

To examine thallium-201 single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with a treadmill exercise test can predict the long-term prognosis of patients with coronary artery disease, 95 patients (71 men, 24 women) who underwent a treadmill exercise test with thallium-201 SPECT from April to December 1986 were followed for 6 years. Three short-axis slices at the apical, mid- and basal-level were selected, and each slice was divided into eight segments. Each segment count was assigned a score according to the count range in the slice (score 0, count range 76-100%; 1, 51-75%; 2, 26-50%; 3, 1-25%; 4, 0%) by evaluating the mean value of the slice. The total Tl defect score of each segment in 3 slices was summed (ΣTl defect score). The 'early ΣTl defect score' was the ΣTl defect score 5 min after treadmill exercise, and the 'late ΣTl defect score' was ΣTl defect score measured 4 h after treadmill exercise. Cardiac events occurred in 27 of the 95 patients: cardiac death 3; myocardial infarction 1; percutaneous transluminal angioplasty 16; coronary artery bypass graft 5; congestive heart failure 3. Univariate analysis showed that previous myocardial infarction (p<0.01), exercise work load (p<0.05), early ΣTl defect score (p<0.0l) and late ΣTl defect score (p<0.01) were independent predictors of the prognosis. These results suggest that thallium-201 SPECT with the treadmill exercise test could be applicable and useful to predict long term prognosis. (author)

Predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm incidence and mortality due to secondary neutrons in a girl and boy receiving proton craniospinal irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taddei, Phillip J; Mirkovic, Dragan; Zhang Rui; Giebeler, Annelise; Harvey, Mark; Newhauser, Wayne D; Mahajan, Anita; Kornguth, David; Woo, Shiao

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to compare the predicted risks of second malignant neoplasm (SMN) incidence and mortality from secondary neutrons for a 9-year-old girl and a 10-year-old boy who received proton craniospinal irradiation (CSI). SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons were predicted from equivalent doses to radiosensitive organs for cranial, spinal and intracranial boost fields. Therapeutic proton absorbed dose and equivalent dose from neutrons were calculated using Monte Carlo simulations. Risks of SMN incidence and mortality in most organs and tissues were predicted by applying risks models from the National Research Council of the National Academies to the equivalent dose from neutrons; for non-melanoma skin cancer, risk models from the International Commission on Radiological Protection were applied. The lifetime absolute risks of SMN incidence due to neutrons were 14.8% and 8.5%, for the girl and boy, respectively. The risks of a fatal SMN were 5.3% and 3.4% for the girl and boy, respectively. The girl had a greater risk for any SMN except colon and liver cancers, indicating that the girl's higher risks were not attributable solely to greater susceptibility to breast cancer. Lung cancer predominated the risk of SMN mortality for both patients. This study suggests that the risks of SMN incidence and mortality from neutrons may be greater for girls than for boys treated with proton CSI.

Does body fat percentage predict post-exercise heart rate response in non-obese children and adolescents?

Science.gov (United States)

Jezdimirovic, Tatjana; Stajer, Valdemar; Semeredi, Sasa; Calleja-Gonzalez, Julio; Ostojic, Sergej M

2017-05-24

A correlation between adiposity and post-exercise autonomic regulation has been established in overweight and obese children. However, little information exists about this link in non-obese youth. The main purpose of this cross-sectional study was to describe the relationship between body fat percentage (BFP) and heart rate recovery after exercise [post-exercise heart rate (PEHR)], a marker of autonomic regulation, in normal-weight children and adolescents. We evaluated the body composition of 183 children and adolescents (age 15.0±2.3 years; 132 boys and 51 girls) who performed a maximal graded exercise test on a treadmill, with the heart rate monitored during and immediately after exercise. A strong positive trend was observed in the association between BFP and PEHR (r=0.14; p=0.06). Hierarchical multiple regression revealed that our model explained 18.3% of the variance in PEHR (p=0.00), yet BFP accounted for only 0.9% of the variability in PEHR (p=0.16). The evaluation of the contribution of each independent variable revealed that only two variables made a unique statistically significant contribution to our model (pfatness seems to poorly predict PEHR in our sample of non-obese children and adolescents, while non-modifiable variables (age and gender) were demonstrated as strong predictors of heart rate recovery. The low amount of body fat reported in non-obese young participants was perhaps too small to cause disturbances in autonomic nervous system regulation.

Sport and exercise psychology in 2050

OpenAIRE

Raab, M

2017-01-01

Sport and exercise psychology by definition describes, explains, and predicts human behaviour. Yet exact predictions of human behaviour are more the exception than the rule and thus it is no wonder that sport and exercise psychologists are not able to predict very well who will be a talent or win a gold medal in 10 years. In the same vein, it is somewhat easier to describe scientific endeavours in hindsight or by analysis of the current state of affairs than to predict what a discipline will ...

Trauma and Injury Severity Score in Predicting Mortality of Polytrauma Patients

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Bambang Gunawan

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE Abstract TRISS (Trauma and Injury Severity Score is one of the most commonly used trauma score. Currently, there is no data about using TRISS in the care of polytrauma patients at emergency department of dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo Hospital (CMH. This research was intended to evaluate whether TRISS can predict the mortality of polytrauma patients at CMH. This was an analytic descriptive study with retrospective cohort design. Data was collected from medical records of polytrauma patients who were admitted to emergency department of CMH from 2011-201 4 then we analyzed the relationship between TRISS and patient’s prognosis. Furthermore, we conducted bivariate and multivariate analysis by SPSS 20 software. Seventy medical records were included in this study. The majority of patients were male (65% in young age. There were 69 patients who experienced blunt trauma, with the majority (94.3% were caused by motor vehicle accident. After receiving trauma care, there were 26 deaths, while other 44 patients survived. From bivariate and multivariate analysis, we found a significant difference between TRISS and patient’s prognosis. TRISS strongly predicts polytrauma patient’s mortality (AUC 0,899; IK95% 0,824-0,975. TRISS has 84,6% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity with optimal intersection point ≤ 90,5. TRISS is able to predict the mortality of polytrauma patients at CMH. TRISS untuk Memprediksi Mortalitas Pasien Politrauma Abstrak TRISS merupakan salah satu penilaian trauma yang paling sering digunakan. Namun, saat ini belum ada data penggunaan TRISS dalam penanganan pasien politrauma di Instalasi Gawat Darurat (IGD Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat Nasional dr. Cipto Mangunkusumo (RSUPNCM. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui kemampuan TRISS dalam memprediksi mortalitas pasien politrauma di IGD RSUPNCM. Penelitian ini adalah studi analitik deskriptif dengan menggunakan desain kohort retrospektif. Data diambil

The pattern of medical mortalities in a specialist hospital in north ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Background: Review of causes of morbidity and mortality in health care facilities is an important exercise which gives a picture of the prevailing disease pattern in the particular community and at the same time looks out for any change in the disease pattern over time. This exercise is a necessary component for planning of ...

Stress hormones at rest and following exercise testing predict coronary artery disease severity and outcome.

Science.gov (United States)

Popovic, Dejana; Damjanovic, Svetozar; Djordjevic, Tea; Martic, Dejana; Ignjatovic, Svetlana; Milinkovic, Neda; Banovic, Marko; Lasica, Ratko; Petrovic, Milan; Guazzi, Marco; Arena, Ross

2017-09-01

Despite considerable knowledge regarding the importance of stress in coronary artery disease (CAD) pathogenesis, its underestimation persists in routine clinical practice, in part attributable to lack of a standardized, objective assessment. The current study examined the ability of stress hormones to predict CAD severity and prognosis at basal conditions as well as during and following an exertional stimulus. Forty Caucasian subjects with significant coronary artery lesions (≥50%) were included. Within 2 months of coronary angiography, cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) on a recumbent ergometer was performed in conjunction with stress echocardiography (SE). At rest, peak and after 3 min of recovery following CPET, plasma levels of cortisol, adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH) and NT-pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) were measured by immunoassay sandwich technique, radioimmunoassay, and radioimmunometric technique, respectively. Subjects were subsequently followed a mean of 32 ± 10 months. Mean ejection fraction was 56.7 ± 9.6%. Subjects with 1-2 stenotic coronary arteries (SCA) demonstrated a significantly lower plasma cortisol levels during CPET compared to those with 3-SCA (p  .05). Among CPET, SE, and hormonal parameters, cortisol at rest and during CPET recovery demonstrated the best predictive value in distinguishing between 1-, 2-, and 3-SCA [area under ROC curve 0.75 and 0.77 (SE = 0.11, 0.10; p = .043, .04) for rest and recovery, respectively]. ΔCortisol peak/rest predicted cumulative cardiac events (area under ROC curve 0.75, SE = 0.10, p = .049). Cortisol at rest and following an exercise test holds predictive value for CAD severity and prognosis, further demonstrating a link between stress and unwanted cardiac events.

Exercise and diet determinants of overweight women participating in an exercise and diet program: a prospective examination of the theory of planned behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Rebecca Ellis; Hausenblas, Heather A

2005-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine prospectively the ability of direct and belief-based measures of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) constructs to predict exercise and diet intention and behavior of overweight women. Participants were 117 overweight, community-dwelling women and university students enrolled in a 4-week exercise and diet program. Participants completed baseline measures of demographic characteristics and the TPB constructs. Their exercise and diet adherence were also recorded. We found that: (1) the direct measure of perceived behavioral control (PBC) predicted exercise intention, (2) the direct measures of instrumental attitude, subjective norm, and PBC predicted diet intention, and (3) none of the direct or belief-based measures of the TPB constructs predicted 4-week exercise or diet behavior. Furthermore, several beliefs were associated with the direct measures of attitude, subjective norm, PBC, and intention. Implications of these results for designing exercise and diet interventions with overweight women are discussed.

Contextual effects on the perceived health benefits of exercise: the exercise rank hypothesis.

Science.gov (United States)

Maltby, John; Wood, Alex M; Vlaev, Ivo; Taylor, Michael J; Brown, Gordon D A

2012-12-01

Many accounts of social influences on exercise participation describe how people compare their behaviors to those of others. We develop and test a novel hypothesis, the exercise rank hypothesis, of how this comparison can occur. The exercise rank hypothesis, derived from evolutionary theory and the decision by sampling model of judgment, suggests that individuals' perceptions of the health benefits of exercise are influenced by how individuals believe the amount of exercise ranks in comparison with other people's amounts of exercise. Study 1 demonstrated that individuals' perceptions of the health benefits of their own current exercise amounts were as predicted by the exercise rank hypothesis. Study 2 demonstrated that the perceptions of the health benefits of an amount of exercise can be manipulated by experimentally changing the ranked position of the amount within a comparison context. The discussion focuses on how social norm-based interventions could benefit from using rank information.

The relationship of walking intensity to total and cause-specific mortality. Results from the National Walkers' Health Study.

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Paul T Williams

Full Text Available PURPOSE: Test whether: 1 walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2 slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. METHODS: Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. RESULTS: The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10(-5, cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths, ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths, heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths, hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths, diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths, and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths. Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001, cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03, and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002 even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET-hours per week. CONCLUSIONS: The risk for mortality: 1 decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2 increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400 m during a six-minute walk test even among subjects who exercise regularly.

Self-Compassion and the Self-Regulation of Exercise: Reactions to Recalled Exercise Setbacks.

Science.gov (United States)

Semenchuk, Brittany N; Strachan, Shaelyn M; Fortier, Michelle

2018-02-01

Self-compassion facilitates health behavior self-regulation; few studies have examined self-compassion and exercise. This online, cross-sectional study investigated self-compassion's relationship with exercise self-regulation of an exercise setback. Adults (N = 105) who had experienced an exercise setback within the last 6 months completed baseline measures, recalled an exercise setback, and completed questionnaires assessing self-regulation in this context. Self-compassion associated with self-determined motivations and exercise goal reengagement, and negatively related to extrinsic motivations, state rumination, and negative affect. Self-compassion predicted unique variance, beyond self-esteem, in exercise goal reengagement, external regulation, state rumination, and negative affect experienced after an exercise setback. Self-compassion and self-esteem had unique relationships with goal reengagement, state rumination, and situational motivation, while having a complementary relationship with negative affect. This research adds to the few studies that examine the role of self-compassion in exercise self-regulation by examining how self-compassion and self-esteem relate to reactions to a recalled exercise setback.

Validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding in a hospital of Lima, Peru (June 2012-December 2013)

OpenAIRE

Cassana, Alessandra; Scialom, Silvia; Segura, Eddy R.; Chacaltana, Alfonso

2015-01-01

Background and aim: Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a major cause of hospitalization and the most prevalent emergency worldwide, with a mortality rate of up to 14%. In Peru, there have not been any studies on the use of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System to predict mortality in upper gastrointestinal bleeding. The aim of this study is to perform an external validation of the Glasgow-Blatchford Scoring System and to establish the best cutoff for predicting mortality in upper gastrointest...

Mortality of marine planktonic copepods : global rates and patterns

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hirst, A.G.; Kiørboe, Thomas

2002-01-01

Using life history theory we make predictions of mortality rates in marine epi-pelagic copepods from field estimates of adult fecundity, development times and adult sex ratios. Predicted mortality increases with temperature in both broadcast and sac spawning copepods, and declines with body weight...... in broadcast spawners, while mortality in sac spawners is invariant with body size. Although the magnitude of copepod mortality does lie close to the overall general pattern for pelagic animals, copepod mortality scaling is much weaker, implying that small copepods are avoiding some mortality agent....../s that other pelagic animals of a similar size do not, We compile direct in situ estimates of copepod mortality and compare these with our indirect predictions; we find the predictions generally match the field measurements well with respect to average rates and patterns. Finally, by comparing in situ adult...

Validating the Malheur model for predicting ponderosa pine post-fire mortality using 24 fires in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Walter G. Thies; Douglas J. Westlind

2012-01-01

Fires, whether intentionally or accidentally set, commonly occur in western interior forests of the US. Following fire, managers need the ability to predict mortality of individual trees based on easily observed characteristics. Previously, a two-factor model using crown scorch and bole scorch proportions was developed with data from 3415 trees for predicting the...

Prediction of Mortality after Emergent Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Placement: Use of APACHE II, Child-Pugh and MELD Scores in Asian Patients with Refractory Variceal Hemorrhage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzeng, Wen Sheng; Wu, Reng Hong; Lin, Ching Yih; Chen, Jyh Jou; Sheu, Ming Juen; Koay, Lok Beng; Lee, Chuan

2009-01-01

This study was designed to determine if existing methods of grading liver function that have been developed in non-Asian patients with cirrhosis can be used to predict mortality in Asian patients treated for refractory variceal hemorrhage by the use of the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) procedure. Data for 107 consecutive patients who underwent an emergency TIPS procedure were retrospectively analyzed. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE II), Child-Pugh and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores were calculated. Survival analyses were performed to evaluate the ability of the various models to predict 30-day, 60-day and 360-day mortality. The ability of stratified APACHE II, Child-Pugh, and MELD scores to predict survival was assessed by the use of Kaplan-Meier analysis with the log-rank test. No patient died during the TIPS procedure, but 82 patients died during the follow-up period. Thirty patients died within 30 days after the TIPS procedure; 37 patients died within 60 days and 53 patients died within 360 days. Univariate analysis indicated that hepatorenal syndrome, use of inotropic agents and mechanical ventilation were associated with elevated 30-day mortality (p 11 or an MELD score > 20 predicted increased risk of death at 30, 60 and 360 days (p 11 or an MELD score > 20 are predictive of mortality in Asian patients with refractory variceal hemorrhage treated with the TIPS procedure. An APACHE II score is not predictive of early mortality in this patient population

Validation and Refinement of Prediction Models to Estimate Exercise Capacity in Cancer Survivors Using the Steep Ramp Test

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stuiver, Martijn M.; Kampshoff, Caroline S.; Persoon, Saskia; Groen, Wim; van Mechelen, Willem; Chinapaw, Mai J. M.; Brug, Johannes; Nollet, Frans; Kersten, Marie-José; Schep, Goof; Buffart, Laurien M.

2017-01-01

Objective: To further test the validity and clinical usefulness of the steep ramp test (SRT) in estimating exercise tolerance in cancer survivors by external validation and extension of previously published prediction models for peak oxygen consumption (Vo2(peak)) and peak power output (W-peak).&

Systemic inflammation predicts all-cause mortality: a glasgow inflammation outcome study.

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Michael J Proctor

Full Text Available Markers of the systemic inflammatory response, including C-reactive protein and albumin (combined to form the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, as well as neutrophil, lymphocyte and platelet counts have been shown to be prognostic of survival in patients with cancer. The aim of the present study was to examine the prognostic relationship between these markers of the systemic inflammatory response and all-cause, cancer, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality in a large incidentally sampled cohort.Patients (n = 160 481 who had an incidental blood sample taken between 2000 and 2008 were studied for the prognostic value of C-reactive protein (>10mg/l, albumin (>35mg/l, neutrophil (>7.5×109/l lymphocyte and platelet counts. Also, patients (n = 52 091 sampled following the introduction of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l measurements were studied. A combination of these markers, to make cumulative inflammation-based scores, were investigated.In all patients (n = 160 481 C-reactive protein (>10mg/l (HR 2.71, p35mg/l (HR 3.68, p3mg/l (n = 52 091. A combination of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (>3mg/l, albumin and neutrophil count predicted all-cause (HR 7.37, p<0.001, AUC 0.723, cancer (HR 9.32, p<0.001, AUC 0.731, cardiovascular (HR 4.03, p<0.001, AUC 0.650 and cerebrovascular (HR 3.10, p<0.001, AUC 0.623 mortality.The results of the present study showed that an inflammation-based prognostic score, combining high sensitivity C-reactive protein, albumin and neutrophil count is prognostic of all-cause mortality.

Effects of impairment in activities of daily living on predicting mortality following hip fracture surgery in studies using administrative healthcare databases

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Impairment in activities of daily living (ADL) is an important predictor of outcomes although many administrative databases lack information on ADL function. We evaluated the impact of ADL function on predicting postoperative mortality among older adults with hip fractures in Ontario, Canada. Methods Sociodemographic and medical correlates of ADL impairment were first identified in a population of older adults with hip fractures who had ADL information available prior to hip fracture. A logistic regression model was developed to predict 360-day postoperative mortality and the predictive ability of this model were compared when ADL impairment was included or omitted from the model. Results The study sample (N = 1,329) had a mean age of 85.2 years, were 72.8% female and the majority resided in long-term care (78.5%). Overall, 36.4% of individuals died within 360 days of surgery. After controlling for age, sex, medical comorbidity and medical conditions correlated with ADL impairment, addition of ADL measures improved the logistic regression model for predicting 360 day mortality (AIC = 1706.9 vs. 1695.0; c -statistic = 0.65 vs 0.67; difference in - 2 log likelihood ratios: χ2 = 16.9, p = 0.002). Conclusions Direct measures of ADL impairment provides additional prognostic information on mortality for older adults with hip fractures even after controlling for medical comorbidity. Observational studies using administrative databases without measures of ADLs may be potentially prone to confounding and bias and case-mix adjustment for hip fracture outcomes should include ADL measures where these are available. PMID:24472282

The importance of non-exercise physical activity for cardiovascular health and longevity.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekblom-Bak, Elin; Ekblom, Björn; Vikström, Max; de Faire, Ulf; Hellénius, Mai-Lis

2014-02-01

Sedentary time is increasing in all societies and results in limited non-exercise physical activity (NEPA) of daily life. The importance of low NEPA for cardiovascular health and longevity is limited, especially in elderly. To examine the association between NEPA and cardiovascular health at baseline as well as the risk of a first cardiovascular disease (CVD) event and total mortality after 12.5 years. Cohort study. Every third 60-year-old man and woman in Stockholm County was invited to a health screening study; 4232 individuals participated (78% response rate). At baseline, NEPA and exercise habits were assessed from a self-administrated questionnaire and cardiovascular health was established through physical examinations and laboratory tests. The participants were followed for an average of 12.5 years for the assessment of CVD events and mortality. At baseline, high NEPA was, regardless of regular exercise and compared with low NEPA, associated with more preferable waist circumference, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and triglycerides in both sexes and with lower insulin, glucose and fibrinogen levels in men. Moreover, the occurrence of the metabolic syndrome was significantly lower in those with higher NEPA levels in non-exercising and regularly exercising individuals. Furthermore, reporting a high NEPA level, compared with low, was associated with a lower risk of a first CVD event (HR=0.73; 95% CI 0.57 to 0.94) and lower all-cause mortality (0.70; 0.53 to 0.98). A generally active daily life was, regardless of exercising regularly or not, associated with cardiovascular health and longevity in older adults.

The prediction of in-hospital mortality by mid-upper arm circumference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Opio, Martin Otyek; Namujwiga, Teopista; Nakitende, Imaculate

2018-01-01

There are few reports of the association of nutritional status with in-hospital mortality of acutely ill medical patients in sub-Saharan Africa. This is a prospective observational study comparing the predictive value of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) of 899 acutely ill medical patients...... patients in a resource-poor hospital in sub-Saharan Africa....... admitted to a resource-poor sub-Saharan hospital with mental alertness, mobility and vital signs. Mid-upper arm circumference ranged from 15 cm to 42 cm, and 12 (24%) of the 50 patients with a MUAC less than 20 cm died (OR 4.84, 95% CI 2.23-10.37). Of the 237 patients with a MUAC more than 28 cm only six...

Prognostic value of exercise capacity among patients with treated depression: The Henry Ford Exercise Testing (FIT) Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, Amjad M; Qureshi, Waqas T; Sakr, Sherif; Blaha, Michael J; Brawner, Clinton A; Ehrman, Jonathan K; Keteyian, Steven J; Al-Mallah, Mouaz H

2018-04-01

Exercise capacity is associated with survival in the general population. Whether this applies to patients with treated depression is not clear. High exercise capacity remains associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality (ACM) and nonfatal myocardial infraction (MI) among patients with treated depression. We included 5128 patients on antidepressant medications who completed a clinically indicated exercise stress test between 1991 and 2009. Patients were followed for a median duration of 9.4 years for ACM and 4.5 years for MI. Exercise capacity was estimated in metabolic equivalents of tasks (METs). Cox proportional hazards regression models were used. Patients with treated depression who achieved ≥12 METs (vs those achieving model, exercise capacity was associated with a lower ACM (HR per 1-MET increase in exercise capacity: 0.82, 95% CI: 0.79-0.85, P capacity had an inverse association with both ACM and nonfatal MI in patients with treated depression, independent of cardiovascular risk factors. These results highlight the potential impact of assessing exercise capacity to identify risk, as well as promoting an active lifestyle among treated depression patients. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cholecystokinin in plasma predicts cardiovascular mortality in elderly females

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gøtze, Jens P.; Rehfeld, Jens F; Alehagen, Urban

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Cholecystokinin (CCK) and gastrin are related gastrointestinal hormones with documented cardiovascular effects of exogenous administration. It is unknown whether measurement of endogenous CCK or gastrin in plasma contains information regarding cardiovascular mortality. METHODS......: Mortality risk was evaluated using Cox proportional hazard regression and Kaplan-Meier analyses. Elderly patients in a primary care setting with symptoms of cardiac disease, i.e. shortness of breath, peripheral edema, and/or fatigue, were evaluated (n=470). Primary care patients were followed for 13years...... information was obtained from 4th quartile gastrin concentrations on 5-year cardiovascular mortality risk. CONCLUSIONS: CCK in plasma is an independent marker of cardiovascular mortality in elderly female patients. The study thus introduces measurement of plasma CCK in gender-specific cardiovascular risk...

Examining the moderating effect of depressive symptoms on the relation between exercise and self-efficacy during the initiation of regular exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Kangas, Julie L; Baldwin, Austin S; Rosenfield, David; Smits, Jasper A J; Rethorst, Chad D

2015-05-01

People with depressive symptoms report lower levels of exercise self-efficacy and are more likely to discontinue regular exercise than others, but it is unclear how depressive symptoms affect the relation between exercise and self-efficacy. We sought to clarify whether depressive symptoms moderate the relations between exercise and same-day self-efficacy, and between self-efficacy and next-day exercise. Participants (n = 116) were physically inactive adults (35% reported clinically significant depressive symptoms) who initiated regular exercise and completed daily assessments for 4 weeks. Mixed linear models were used to test whether (a) self-efficacy differed on days when exercise did and did not occur, (b) self-efficacy predicted next-day exercise, and (c) these relations were moderated by depressive symptoms. First, self-efficacy was lower on days when no exercise occurred, but this difference was larger for people with high depressive symptoms (p self-efficacy than people with low depressive symptoms on days when no exercise occurred (p = .03), but self-efficacy did not differ on days when exercise occurred (p = .34). Second, self-efficacy predicted greater odds of next-day exercise, OR = 1.12, 95% [1.04, 1.21], but depressive symptoms did not moderate this relation, OR = 1.00, 95% CI [.99, 1.01]. During exercise initiation, daily self-efficacy is more strongly related to exercise occurrence for people with high depressive symptoms than those with low depressive symptoms, but self-efficacy predicts next-day exercise regardless of depressive symptoms. The findings specify how depressive symptoms affect the relations between exercise and self-efficacy and underscore the importance of targeting self-efficacy in exercise interventions, particularly among people with depressive symptoms. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality and major adverse cardiac events after primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients without diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Ekmekci, Ahmet; Cicek, Gokhan; Uluganyan, Mahmut; Gungor, Baris; Osman, Faizel; Ozcan, Kazim Serhan; Bozbay, Mehmet; Ertas, Gokhan; Zencirci, Aycan; Sayar, Nurten; Eren, Mehmet

2014-02-01

Admission hyperglycemia is associated with high inhospital and long-term adverse events in patients that undergo primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We aimed to evaluate whether hyperglycemia predicts inhospital mortality. We prospectively analyzed 503 consecutive patients. The patients were divided into tertiles according to the admission glucose levels. Tertile I: glucose 145 mg/dL (n = 169). Inhospital mortality was 0 in tertile I, 2 in tertile II, and 9 in tertile III (P < .02). Cardiogenic shock occurred more frequently in tertile III compared to tertiles I and II (10% vs 4.1% and 0.6%, respectively, P = .01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that patients in tertile III had significantly higher risk of inhospital major adverse cardiac events compared to patients in tertile I (odds ratio: 9.55, P < .02). Admission hyperglycemia predicts inhospital adverse cardiac events in mortality and acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction in patients that underwent primary PCI.

Predicting short-term mortality and long-term survival for hospitalized US patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

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Cuthbert, Jennifer A; Arslanlar, Sami; Yepuri, Jay; Montrose, Marc; Ahn, Chul W; Shah, Jessica P

2014-07-01

No study has evaluated current scoring systems for their accuracy in predicting short and long-term outcome of alcoholic hepatitis in a US population. We reviewed electronic records for patients with alcoholic liver disease (ALD) admitted to Parkland Memorial Hospital between January 2002 and August 2005. Data and outcomes for 148 of 1,761 admissions meeting pre-defined criteria were collected. The discriminant function (DF) was revised (INRdf) to account for changes in prothrombin time reagents that could potentially affect identification of risk using the previous DF threshold of >32. Admission and theoretical peak scores were calculated by use of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD). Analysis models compared five different scoring systems. INRdf was closely correlated with the old DF (r (2) = 0.95). Multivariate analysis of the data showed that survival for 28 days was significantly associated with a scoring system using a combination of age, bilirubin, coagulation status, and creatinine (p short-term mortality (p 50 % mortality at four weeks and >80 % mortality at six months without specific treatment.

Exercise hypoxaemia as a predictor of pulmonary hypertension in COPD patients without severe resting hypoxaemia.

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Nakahara, Yoshio; Taniguchi, Hiroyuki; Kimura, Tomoki; Kondoh, Yasuhiro; Arizono, Shinichi; Nishimura, Koichi; Sakamoto, Koji; Ito, Satoru; Ando, Masahiko; Hasegawa, Yoshinori

2017-01-01

Pulmonary hypertension (PH) in COPD is associated with morbidity and mortality. Previous studies showed a relationship between resting hypoxaemia and PH, but little is known about the relationship between exercise hypoxaemia and PH in COPD without resting hypoxaemia. A retrospective observational study of COPD patients without resting hypoxaemia was conducted to evaluate the relationships between exercise hypoxaemia and pulmonary haemodynamics. Clinical characteristics, pulmonary function, blood gas analysis, 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and oxygen saturation of peripheral artery (SpO 2 ) at the end of the 6-min walk test (6MWT) were reviewed. Correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis were performed to identify the predictor of mean pulmonary artery pressure (mPAP). Eighty-four consecutive patients with a mean predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV 1 ) of 47 ± 21% were evaluated. In univariate analysis, mPAP had negative correlations with age (r = -0.27, P exercise hypoxaemia indicates PH in patients with COPD without resting hypoxaemia. © 2016 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Music therapy-induced changes in salivary cortisol level are predictive of cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance hemodialysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, Yi-Chou; Lin, Yen-Ju; Lu, Kuo-Cheng; Chiang, Han-Sun; Chang, Chia-Chi; Yang, Li-King

2017-01-01

Music therapy has been applied in hemodialysis (HD) patients for relieving mental stress. Whether the stress-relieving effect by music therapy is predictive of clinical outcome in HD patients is still unclear. We recruited a convenience sample of 99 patients on maintenance HD and randomly assigned them to the experimental (n=49) or control (n=50) group. The experimental group received relaxing music therapy for 1 week, whereas the control group received no music therapy. In the experimental group, we compared cardiovascular mortality in the patients with and without cortisol changes. The salivary cortisol level was lowered after 1 week of music therapy in the experimental group (-2.41±3.08 vs 1.66±2.11 pg/mL, P 0.6 pg/mL (83.8% vs 63.6%, P predict cardiovascular mortality in patients under maintenance HD.

Low Transvalvular Flow Rate Predicts Mortality in Patients With Low-Gradient Aortic Stenosis Following Aortic Valve Intervention.

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Vamvakidou, Anastasia; Jin, Wenying; Danylenko, Oleksandr; Chahal, Navtej; Khattar, Rajdeep; Senior, Roxy

2018-03-09

This study aimed to assess the value of low transvalvular flow rate (FR) for the prediction of mortality compared with low stroke volume index (SVi) in patients with low-gradient (mean gradient: gradient AS who had undergone valve intervention. We retrospectively followed prospectively assessed consecutive patients with low-gradient, low aortic valve area AS who underwent aortic valve intervention between 2010 and 2014 for all-cause mortality. Of the 218 patients with mean age 75 ± 12 years, 102 (46.8%) had low stroke volume index (SVi) (gradient, low valve area aortic stenosis undergoing aortic valve intervention, low FR, not low SVi, was an independent predictor of medium-term mortality. Copyright © 2018 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Serum Phosphate Predicts Early Mortality among Underweight Adults Starting ART in Zambia: A Novel Context for Refeeding Syndrome?

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Koethe, John R.; Blevins, Meridith; Nyirenda, Christopher K.; Kabagambe, Edmond K.; Chiasera, Janelle M.; Shepherd, Bryan E.; Zulu, Isaac; Heimburger, Douglas C.

2013-01-01

Background. Low body mass index (BMI) at antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation is associated with early mortality, but the etiology is not well understood. We hypothesized that low pretreatment serum phosphate, a critical cellular metabolism intermediate primarily stored in skeletal muscle, may predict mortality within the first 12 weeks of ART. Methods. We prospectively studied 352 HIV-infected adults initiating ART in Lusaka, Zambia to estimate the odds of death for each 0.1 mmol/L decrease in baseline phosphate after adjusting for established predictors of mortality. Results. The distribution of phosphate values was similar across BMI categories (median value 1.2 mmol/L). Among the 145 participants with BMI refeeding syndrome. Further studies of cellular metabolism in this population are needed. PMID:23691292

Mini Nutritional Assessment predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Gumieiro, David N; Rafacho, Bruna P M; Gonçalves, Andrea F; Tanni, Suzana E; Azevedo, Paula S; Sakane, Daniel T; Carneiro, Carlos A S; Gaspardo, David; Zornoff, Leonardo A M; Pereira, Gilberto J C; Paiva, Sergio A R; Minicucci, Marcos F

2013-05-01

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA), the Nutritional Risk Screening (NRS) 2002 and the American Society of Anesthesiologists Physical Status Score (ASA) as predictors of gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. A total of eighty-eight consecutive patients over the age of 65 years with hip fracture admitted to an orthopaedic unit were prospectively evaluated. Within the first 72 h of admission, each patient's characteristics were recorded, and the MNA, the NRS 2002 and the ASA were performed. Gait status and mortality were evaluated 6 months after hip fracture. Of the total patients, two were excluded because of pathological fractures. The remaining eighty-six patients (aged 80·2 (sd 7·3) years) were studied. Among these patients 76·7 % were female, 69·8 % walked with or without support and 12·8 % died 6 months after the fracture. In a multivariate analysis, only the MNA was associated with gait status 6 months after hip fracture (OR 0·773, 95 % CI 0·663, 0·901; P= 0·001). In the Cox regression model, only the MNA was associated with mortality 6 months after hip fracture (hazard ratio 0·869, 95 % CI 0·757, 0·998; P= 0·04). In conclusion, the MNA best predicts gait status and mortality 6 months after hip fracture. These results suggest that the MNA should be included in the clinical stratification of patients with hip fracture to identify and treat malnutrition in order to improve the outcomes.

Social Cognitive Theory Predictors of Exercise Behavior in Endometrial Cancer Survivors

Science.gov (United States)

Basen-Engquist, Karen; Carmack, Cindy L.; Li, Yisheng; Brown, Jubilee; Jhingran, Anuja; Hughes, Daniel C.; Perkins, Heidi Y.; Scruggs, Stacie; Harrison, Carol; Baum, George; Bodurka, Diane C.; Waters, Andrew

2014-01-01

Objective This study evaluated whether social cognitive theory (SCT) variables, as measured by questionnaire and ecological momentary assessment (EMA), predicted exercise in endometrial cancer survivors. Methods One hundred post-treatment endometrial cancer survivors received a 6-month home-based exercise intervention. EMAs were conducted using hand-held computers for 10- to 12-day periods every 2 months. Participants rated morning self-efficacy and positive and negative outcome expectations using the computer, recorded exercise information in real time and at night, and wore accelerometers. At the midpoint of each assessment period participants completed SCT questionnaires. Using linear mixed-effects models, we tested whether morning SCT variables predicted minutes of exercise that day (Question 1) and whether exercise minutes at time point Tj could be predicted by questionnaire measures of SCT variables from time point Tj-1 (Question 2). Results Morning self-efficacy significantly predicted that day’s exercise minutes (pexercise minutes (p=0.0003), but the relationship was attenuated when self-efficacy was included in the model (p=0.4032). Morning negative outcome expectations was not associated with exercise minutes. Of the questionnaire measures of SCT variables, only exercise self-efficacy predicted exercise at the next time point (p=0.003). Conclusions The consistency of the relationship between self-efficacy and exercise minutes over short (same day) and longer (Tj to Tj-1) time periods provides support for a causal relationship. The strength of the relationship between morning self-efficacy and exercise minutes suggest that real-time interventions that target daily variation in self-efficacy may benefit endometrial cancer survivors’ exercise adherence. PMID:23437853

Exercise identity as a risk factor for exercise dependence.

Science.gov (United States)

Murray, Aja L; McKenzie, Karen; Newman, Emily; Brown, Erin

2013-05-01

The aim of the study was to explore the relationship between exercise identity and exercise dependence. We hypothesized that stronger exercise identities would be associated with greater odds of experiencing exercise dependence symptoms. Logistic regression was used to assess the extent of association between exercise identity and the risk of experiencing exercise dependence symptoms. Participants (101) were recruited online via sports clubs and social networking sites and were asked to complete online measures of exercise identity and exercise dependence. The overall model fit was a significant improvement on the baseline model, but only the exercise beliefs factor was significantly associated with the odds of dependence symptoms, with higher scores on the belief scale predicting greater odds of experiencing dependence symptoms. Exercise role identity, in contrast, was not significantly associated with odds of experiencing dependence symptoms. Per cent correct classification was 55.9% for asymptomatic and 88.2% for symptomatic individuals and the overall per cent correct classification was 77.5%. The relation between identity and dependence could represent both a fruitful research avenue and a potential therapeutic target for those experiencing dependence symptoms; although our findings only showed a relationship between one of the two factors of the exercise identity measure and dependence. Longitudinal research is required to examine the relationship between identity and dependence in the context of other variables to better understand why some individuals become exercise dependent whereas others do not. What is already known on this subject? Exercise identity has been identified as an important determinant of exercise behaviour and studies within the exercise identity framework have proven elucidative with respect to the psychological processes that may underpin commitment to exercise. It has separately been established that some individuals may become

External validation of Vascular Study Group of New England risk predictive model of mortality after elective abdominal aorta aneurysm repair in the Vascular Quality Initiative and comparison against established models.

Science.gov (United States)

Eslami, Mohammad H; Rybin, Denis V; Doros, Gheorghe; Siracuse, Jeffrey J; Farber, Alik

2018-01-01

The purpose of this study is to externally validate a recently reported Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) risk predictive model of postoperative mortality after elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair and to compare its predictive ability across different patients' risk categories and against the established risk predictive models using the Vascular Quality Initiative (VQI) AAA sample. The VQI AAA database (2010-2015) was queried for patients who underwent elective AAA repair. The VSGNE cases were excluded from the VQI sample. The external validation of a recently published VSGNE AAA risk predictive model, which includes only preoperative variables (age, gender, history of coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular disease, creatinine levels, and aneurysm size) and planned type of repair, was performed using the VQI elective AAA repair sample. The predictive value of the model was assessed via the C-statistic. Hosmer-Lemeshow method was used to assess calibration and goodness of fit. This model was then compared with the Medicare, Vascular Governance Northwest model, and Glasgow Aneurysm Score for predicting mortality in VQI sample. The Vuong test was performed to compare the model fit between the models. Model discrimination was assessed in different risk group VQI quintiles. Data from 4431 cases from the VSGNE sample with the overall mortality rate of 1.4% was used to develop the model. The internally validated VSGNE model showed a very high discriminating ability in predicting mortality (C = 0.822) and good model fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow P = .309) among the VSGNE elective AAA repair sample. External validation on 16,989 VQI cases with an overall 0.9% mortality rate showed very robust predictive ability of mortality (C = 0.802). Vuong tests yielded a significant fit difference favoring the VSGNE over then Medicare model (C = 0.780), Vascular Governance Northwest (0.774), and Glasgow Aneurysm Score (0

Self-regulation of Exercise Behavior in the TIGER Study

Science.gov (United States)

Dishman, Rod K.; Jackson, Andrew S.; Bray, Molly S.

2014-01-01

Objective To test experiential and behavioral processes of change as mediators of the prediction of exercise behavior by two self-regulation traits, self-efficacy and self-motivation, while controlling for exercise enjoyment. Methods Structural equation modeling was applied to questionnaire responses obtained from a diverse sample of participants. Objective measures defined adherence (928 of 1279 participants attended 80% or more of sessions) and compliance (867 of 1145 participants exercised 30 minutes or more each session at their prescribed heart rate). Results Prediction of attendance by self-efficacy (inversely) and self-motivation was direct and also indirect, mediated through positive relations with the typical use of behavioral change processes. Enjoyment and self-efficacy (inversely) predicted compliance with the exercise prescription. Conclusions The results support the usefulness of self-regulatory behavioral processes of the Transtheoretical Model for predicting exercise adherence, but not compliance, extending the supportive evidence for self-regulation beyond self-reports of physical activity used in prior observational studies. PMID:24311018

Plasma glucose and not hemoglobin or renal function predicts mortality in patients with STEMI complicated with cardiogenic shock

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vis, Marije M.; Engström, Annemarie E.; Sjauw, Krischan D.; Tjong, Fleur Vy; Baan, Jan; Koch, Karel T.; de Vries, Hans J.; Tijssen, Jan Gp; de Winter, Robbert J.; Piek, Jan J.; Henriques, José Ps

2010-01-01

Objective To assess the predictive value of three biomarkers for mortality in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) with cardiogenic shock. Background STEMI complicated by cardiogenic shock accounts for the majority of STEMI related deaths. Patients with STEMI and hyperglycemia, anemia

The relationship between exercise schema and identity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berry, T.R.; Strachan, S.M.; Verkooijen, K.T.

2013-01-01

This research examined the relationship between exercise-related schemas and identity and their unique contributions in predicting exercise-related cognitions and behaviour. Analyses were conducted on data from two studies that used the same measures of exercise schema and identity but differed on

Validation of a new mortality risk prediction model for people 65 years and older in northwest Russia: The Crystal risk score.

Science.gov (United States)

Turusheva, Anna; Frolova, Elena; Bert, Vaes; Hegendoerfer, Eralda; Degryse, Jean-Marie

2017-07-01

Prediction models help to make decisions about further management in clinical practice. This study aims to develop a mortality risk score based on previously identified risk predictors and to perform internal and external validations. In a population-based prospective cohort study of 611 community-dwelling individuals aged 65+ in St. Petersburg (Russia), all-cause mortality risks over 2.5 years follow-up were determined based on the results obtained from anthropometry, medical history, physical performance tests, spirometry and laboratory tests. C-statistic, risk reclassification analysis, integrated discrimination improvement analysis, decision curves analysis, internal validation and external validation were performed. Older adults were at higher risk for mortality [HR (95%CI)=4.54 (3.73-5.52)] when two or more of the following components were present: poor physical performance, low muscle mass, poor lung function, and anemia. If anemia was combined with high C-reactive protein (CRP) and high B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) was added the HR (95%CI) was slightly higher (5.81 (4.73-7.14)) even after adjusting for age, sex and comorbidities. Our models were validated in an external population of adults 80+. The extended model had a better predictive capacity for cardiovascular mortality [HR (95%CI)=5.05 (2.23-11.44)] compared to the baseline model [HR (95%CI)=2.17 (1.18-4.00)] in the external population. We developed and validated a new risk prediction score that may be used to identify older adults at higher risk for mortality in Russia. Additional studies need to determine which targeted interventions improve the outcomes of these at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of habit in different phases of exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaushal, Navin; Rhodes, Ryan E; Meldrum, John T; Spence, John C

2017-09-01

The primary purpose of this study was to investigate how habit strength in a preparatory and performance phase predicts exercise while accounting for intention. The secondary purpose was to determine the strength of potential habit antecedents (affective judgement, perceived behavioural control, consistency, and cues) in both exercise phases. This was a prospective study with measures collected at baseline and week 6. Participants (n = 181) were a sample of adults (18-65) recruited across nine gyms and recreation centres who completed baseline and follow-up questionnaires after 6 weeks. Intention (β = .28, p = .00) and habit preparation (β = .20, p = .03), predicted exercise, and change of exercise with coefficients of β = .25, (p = .00) and β = .18, (p = .04), respectively, across 6 weeks but not habit performance (p>.05). This study highlighted the distinction between the two phases of exercise and the importance of preparatory habit in predicting behaviour. Focusing on a consistent preparatory routine could be helpful in establishing an exercise habit. Statement of contribution What is already known on this subject? A recent meta-analysis found habit to correlate r = .43 with behaviour (Gardner, de Bruijn, & Lally, ). Verplanken and Melkevik () propose that habit in exercise should be measured in separate components. Phillips and Gardner () interpreted this as habitual instigation (thought) to exercise and execution. What does this study add? Extended pervious work and identified two distinct behavioural phases (preparation and performance) for exercise. Habit model revealed that temporal consistency was the strongest predictor in both phases of exercise. Intention and habit of preparatory behaviour predicted exercise fluctuations in gym members. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Clarifying the contribution of subjective norm to predicting leisure-time exercise.

Science.gov (United States)

Okun, Morris A; Karoly, Paul; Lutz, Rafer

2002-01-01

To clarify the contribution of subjective norm to exercise intention and behavior by considering the influence of descriptive as well as injunctive social norms related to family and friends. A sample of 530 college students completed a questionnaire that assessed descriptive and injunctive social norms related to family and to friends, perceived behavioral control, attitude, intention, and leisure-time exercise. Friend descriptive social norm was a significant predictor of both intention (pleisure-time exercise (p<.001). Descriptive norms should be incorporated into tests of the theory of planned behavior in the exercise domain.

Risk factors predicting mortality in patients with lung abscess in a public tertiary care center in Karachi, Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghazal, Shaista; Kumar, Ashok; Shrestha, Binav; Sajid, Sana; Malik, Maria; Rizvi, Nadeen

2013-01-01

Lung abscess is a commonly encountered entity in South-East Asia but not much data regarding its outcome is available. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased mortality in patients diagnosed with lung abscess in a tertiary care center of Karachi, Pakistan. A retrospective case analysis was performed via hospital records, on patients admitted with lung abscess between January 2009 and January 2011 at the largest state-owned tertiary care centre in Karachi, Pakistan. Out of the 41 patients hospitalized, 17 could not survive and were evaluated for clinical, radiological and microbiological factors to determine association with heightened mortality. Mortality due to lung abscess stood at 41.4% (17 of 41 cases). Adult male patients were found to have higher mortality with 13 out of 17 (43%) dead patients being male. A majority (21/41, 51.2%) of the cases belonged to the 41-60 year old age group. Highest mortality was seen in patients200 mg/dL (56%) succumb to disease. Patients with a positive history of smoking, diabetes mellitus, and alcohol intake expressed mortality rates of 44%, 56%, and 50% respectively; while 29.4% of the mortalities were positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum culture. A significant association was found with elevated mortality and low haemoglobin levels at time of admission; mortality was 58% (p=0.005) in patients with Hb less than or equal to 10 mg/dL. The risk factors involved with heightened mortality included male gender and history of smoking, diabetes and alcohol intake. High blood sugar levels and detection of Pseudomonas aeruginosa on sputum cultures were also implicated. Anemia (Hb level less than or equal to 10 mg/dl) was statistically significant predictive factor for increased mortality.

Exercise and sleep predict personal resources in employees' daily lives.

Science.gov (United States)

Nägel, Inga J; Sonnentag, Sabine

2013-11-01

The present study investigates the interaction of exercise and sleep on state-like personal resources in employees' daily lives. Further, the study examines the association between state-like personal resources and emotional exhaustion. We conducted a diary study over five consecutive working days (total of 443 days) with 144 employees who answered daily online surveys after work and before bedtime. Multilevel modeling showed that exercise after work was positively related to the next day's personal resources when sleep duration during the night time was longer compared to other nights. Furthermore, personal resources positively related to lower emotional exhaustion after work on the next day. This study demonstrates that exercise and sleep may help to renew personal resources. Results stress the importance of balancing exercise and sleep in daily life. © 2013 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Exercise and longevity.

Science.gov (United States)

Gremeaux, Vincent; Gayda, Mathieu; Lepers, Romuald; Sosner, Philippe; Juneau, Martin; Nigam, Anil

2012-12-01

Aging is a natural and complex physiological process influenced by many factors, some of which are modifiable. As the number of older individuals continues to increase, it is important to develop interventions that can be easily implemented and contribute to "successful aging". In addition to a healthy diet and psychosocial well-being, the benefits of regular exercise on mortality, and the prevention and control of chronic disease affecting both life expectancy and quality of life are well established. We summarize the benefits of regular exercise on longevity, present the current knowledge regarding potential mechanisms, and outline the main recommendations. Exercise can partially reverse the effects of the aging process on physiological functions and preserve functional reserve in the elderly. Numerous studies have shown that maintaining a minimum quantity and quality of exercise decreases the risk of death, prevents the development of certain cancers, lowers the risk of osteoporosis and increases longevity. Training programs should include exercises aimed at improving cardiorespiratory fitness and muscle function, as well as flexibility and balance. Though the benefits of physical activity appear to be directly linked to the notion of training volume and intensity, further research is required in the elderly, in order to develop more precise recommendations, bearing in mind that the main aim is to foster long-term adherence to physical activity in this growing population. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A rare sign of ischemia during exercise ECG: PR interval lengthening in the recovery period.

Science.gov (United States)

Durakoğlugil, Murtaza Emre; Kocaman, Sinan Altan; Ciçek, Yüksel; Cetin, Mustafa

2012-12-01

Exercise electrocardiography (ECG) is one of the most commonly utilized tests in cardiology. Despite the drawbacks, exercise ECG is widely preferred due to low cost, standardization, and strong prognostic information. A prolonged PR interval during recovery has recently been proposed as an indicator of mortality. Herein, we report an interesting case of a patient who presented with the complaint of exertional dyspnea and exhibited PR lengthening during the recovery period on the exercise ECG. The patient had a PR interval of 240 ms before exercise, which decreased to 160 ms at peak stress. However, during recovery, the PR interval prolonged gradually, reaching 320 ms at the second minute and persisting at that length until the end of the recovery period. The patient achieved 87% of the age predicted maximum heart rate, and experienced non-disabling shortness of breath and a pressure sensation in the chest, with no apparent ST segment depression. Recovery parameters, including heart rate recovery and systolic blood pressure recovery, were also within normal limits. The patient underwent coronary angiography with the suspicion of CAD which revealed severe multi-vessel disease. This rare case emphasizes the importance of PR lengthening in the recovery period as a sign of severe ischemia, in addition to other signs, such as prominent ST-segment changes, chronotropic incompetence, impaired hemodynamic response, and poor exercise capacity during stress ECG evaluation.

Preadmission quality of life can predict mortality in intensive care unit—A prospective cohort study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bukan, Ramin I; Møller, Ann M; Henning, Mattias A S

2014-01-01

quality of life, assessed by SF-36 and SF-12, is as good at predicting ICU, 30-, and 90-day mortality as APACHE II in patients admitted to the ICU for longer than 24 hours. This indicates that estimated preadmission quality of life, potentially available in the pre-ICU setting, could aid decision making...... regarding ICU admission and deserves more attention by those caring for critically ill patients....

Effects of exercise on tumor physiology and metabolism.

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Line; Christensen, Jesper Frank; Hojman, Pernille

2015-01-01

Exercise is a potent regulator of a range of physiological processes in most tissues. Solid epidemiological data show that exercise training can reduce disease risk and mortality for several cancer diagnoses, suggesting that exercise training may directly regulate tumor physiology and metabolism. Here, we review the body of literature describing exercise intervention studies performed in rodent tumor models and elaborate on potential mechanistic effects of exercise on tumor physiology. Exercise has been shown to reduce tumor incidence, tumor multiplicity, and tumor growth across numerous different transplantable, chemically induced or genetic tumor models. We propose 4 emerging mechanistic effects of exercise, including (1) vascularization and blood perfusion, (2) immune function, (3) tumor metabolism, and (4) muscle-to-cancer cross-talk, and discuss these in details. In conclusion, exercise training has the potential to be a beneficial and integrated component of cancer management, but has yet to fully elucidate its potential. Understanding the mechanistic effects of exercise on tumor physiology is warranted. Insight into these mechanistic effects is emerging, but experimental intervention studies are still needed to verify the cause-effect relationship between these mechanisms and the control of tumor growth.

Assessment of performance and utility of mortality prediction models in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit.

Science.gov (United States)

Sathe, Prachee M; Bapat, Sharda N

2014-01-01

To assess the performance and utility of two mortality prediction models viz. Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) in a single Indian mixed tertiary intensive care unit (ICU). Secondary objectives were bench-marking and setting a base line for research. In this observational cohort, data needed for calculation of both scores were prospectively collected for all consecutive admissions to 28-bedded ICU in the year 2011. After excluding readmissions, discharges within 24 h and age <18 years, the records of 1543 patients were analyzed using appropriate statistical methods. Both models overpredicted mortality in this cohort [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) 0.88 ± 0.05 and 0.95 ± 0.06 using APACHE II and SAPS II respectively]. Patterns of predicted mortality had strong association with true mortality (R (2) = 0.98 for APACHE II and R (2) = 0.99 for SAPS II). Both models performed poorly in formal Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit testing (Chi-square = 12.8 (P = 0.03) for APACHE II, Chi-square = 26.6 (P = 0.001) for SAPS II) but showed good discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve 0.86 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) and 0.83 ± 0.013 SE (P < 0.001) for APACHE II and SAPS II, respectively). There were wide variations in SMRs calculated for subgroups based on International Classification of Disease, 10(th) edition (standard deviation ± 0.27 for APACHE II and 0.30 for SAPS II). Lack of fit of data to the models and wide variation in SMRs in subgroups put a limitation on utility of these models as tools for assessing quality of care and comparing performances of different units without customization. Considering comparable performance and simplicity of use, efforts should be made to adapt SAPS II.

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation for coronary heart disease

OpenAIRE

Anderson, Lindsey; Thompson, David R; Oldridge, Neil; Zwisler, Ann-Dorthe; Rees, Karen; Martin, Nicole; Taylor, Rod S

2016-01-01

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the single most common cause of death globally. However, with falling CHD mortality rates, an increasing number of people live with CHD and may need support to manage their symptoms and prognosis. Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation (CR) aims to improve the health and outcomes of people with CHD. This is an update of a Cochrane systematic review previously published in 2011.OBJECTIVES: To assess the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of exercise...

Exhaled nitric oxide predicts exercise-induced bronchoconstriction in asthmatic school children

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buchvald, Frederik; Hermansen, Mette N; Nielsen, Kim G

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: Exercise-induced bronchoconstriction (EIB) is of particular importance in children with asthma. It is an important measure of asthma control and should be monitored by exercise testing. However, exercise testing puts a large demand on health-care resources and is therefore not widely...... used in routine monitoring of pediatric asthma control. The fractional concentration of exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) also reflects uncontrolled asthma. We hypothesized that FeNO may be used for prescreening of asthmatic children to exclude those with good asthma control unlikely to have EIB, thereby...... reducing the need for exercise testing. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to estimate the value of FeNO as a predictor of EIB in asthmatic children. METHODS: Stable outpatient asthmatic school children performed standard exercise challenge tests and measurement of FeNO. RESULTS: FeNO and response...

The Glasgow Prognostic Score at the Time of Palliative Esophageal Stent Insertion is a Predictive Factor of 30-Day Mortality and Overall Survival.

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Driver, Robert J; Handforth, Catherine; Radhakrishna, Ganesh; Bennett, Michael I; Ford, Alexander C; Everett, Simon M

2018-03-01

Optimizing the timing of esophageal stent insertion is a challenge, partly due to difficulty predicting survival in advanced malignancy. The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS) is a validated tool for predicting survival in a number of cancers. To assess the utility of the GPS in predicting 30-day mortality and overall survival postesophageal stent insertion. Patients at a tertiary referral center who had received an esophageal stent for palliation of dysphagia were included if they had a measurement of albumin and C-reactive protein (CRP) in the week preceding the procedure (n=209). Patients with both an elevated CRP (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were given a GPS score of 2 (GPS2). Patients with only one of these abnormalities were assigned as GPS1 and those with normal CRP and albumin were assigned as GPS0. Clinical and pathologic parameters were also collected to assess for potential confounding factors in the survival analysis. Increasing GPS was associated with 30-day mortality; for patients with GPS0, 30-day mortality was 5% (2/43), for GPS1 it was 23% (26/114), and for GPS2 it was 33% (17/52). The adjusted hazard ratio for overall poststent mortality was 1.6 (95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.4; P=0.02) for GPS1 and 2.4 (95% confidence interval, 1.5-3.8; PGPS2 patients compared with GPS0. GPS is an independent prognostic factor of 30-day mortality and overall survival after esophageal stent insertion. It is a potential adjunct to clinical assessment in identifying those patients at high-risk of short-term mortality poststent.

New social adaptability index predicts overall mortality.

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Goldfarb-Rumyantzev, Alexander; Barenbaum, Anna; Rodrigue, James; Rout, Preeti; Isaacs, Ross; Mukamal, Kenneth

2011-08-01

Definitions of underprivileged status based on race, gender and geographic location are neither sensitive nor specific; instead we proposed and validated a composite index of social adaptability (SAI). Index of social adaptability was calculated based on employment, education, income, marital status, and substance abuse, each factor contributing from 0 to 3 points. Index of social adaptability was validated in NHANES-3 by association with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Weighted analysis of 19,593 subjects demonstrated mean SAI of 8.29 (95% CI 8.17-8.40). Index of social adaptability was higher in Whites, followed by Mexican-Americans and then the African-American population (ANOVA, p adaptability with a strong association with mortality, which can be used to identify underprivileged populations at risk of death.

Exercise Predicts Long-Term Weight Loss in Women With Class 1 and Class 2 Obesity Through Effects on Emotional Eating and its Correlates.

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Annesi, James J

2018-01-01

The relationship between exercise and long-term weight loss is definitive. However, in deconditioned individuals, the basis of that relationship beyond minimal energy expenditures is unclear. Effects emanating from exercise's proposed association with changes in emotional eating and its psychosocial correlates were tested. Women with class 1 (n = 67) and class 2 (n = 53) obesity, participating in a new community-based weight-loss treatment based on tenets of social cognitive theory, were assessed at baseline and Months 3, 6, 12, and 24 on weight and measures of exercise outputs, emotional eating, eating self-regulation, and negative mood. An exercise-support component was provided for 2 months prior to group nutrition-change sessions. Improvements from baseline were significant on all measures but did not significantly differ by group. Although not for the initial 3 months, changes in exercise significantly predicted weight changes over 6, 12, and 24 months from baseline. However, only 26%-31% of the lost weight was directly attributable to exercise-related energy expenditures. Changes in emotional eating significantly mediated the exercise-weight-loss relationship, and changes in self-regulation and mood significantly mediated the exercise-emotional eating relationship. Findings supported exercise's role in long-term weight loss primarily through psychosocial factors.

Theoretical Constructs that Predict Women's Exercise

OpenAIRE

Whiteley, Jessica A.

1998-01-01

Although research has examined the determinants of physical activity, this research has focused primarily on men and few efforts have been made to explain the interrelationships between commonly used predictors of physical activity. Descriptive data and regression analyses were conducted with 193 female students, faculty, staff and community members of a southwestern Virginia university town. Variables that were entered into the regression included age, body mass index, exercise knowledge, se...

Soluble Suppression of Tumorigenicity-2 Predicts Hospital Mortality in Burn Patients: An Observational Prospective Cohort Pilot Study.

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Ruiz-Castilla, Mireia; Bosacoma, Pau; Dos Santos, Bruce; Baena, Jacinto; Guilabert, Patricia; Marin-Corral, Judith; Masclans, Joan R; Roca, Oriol; Barret, Juan P

2018-04-10

The IL33/ST2 pathway has been implicated in the pathogenesis of different inflammatory diseases. Our aim was to analyze whether plasma levels of biomarkers involved in the IL33/ST2 axis might help to predict mortality in burn patients. Single-center prospective observational cohort pilot study performed at the Burns Unit of the Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery Department of the Vall d'Hebron University Hospital (Barcelona). All patients aged ≥18 years old with second or third-degree burns requiring admission to the Burns Unit were considered for inclusion. Blood samples were taken to measure levels of interleukins (IL)6, IL8, IL33, and soluble suppression of tumorigenicity-2 (sST2) within 24 h of admission to the Burns Unit and at day 3. Results are expressed as medians and interquartile ranges or as frequencies and percentages. Sixty-nine patients (58 [84.1%] male, mean age 52 [35-63] years, total body surface area burned 21% [13%-30%], Abbreviated Burn Severity Index 6 [4-8]) were included. Thirteen (18.8%) finally died in the Burns Unit. Plasma levels of sST2 measured at day 3 after admission demonstrated the best prediction accuracy for survival (area under the ROC curve 0.85 [0.71-0.99]; P < 0.001). The best cutoff point for the AUROC index was estimated to be 2,561. In the Cox proportional hazards model, after adjusting for potential confounding, a plasma sST2 level ≥2,561 measured at day 3 was significantly associated with mortality (HR 6.94 [1.73-27.74]; P = 0.006). Plasma sST2 at day 3 predicts hospital mortality in burn patients.

Exercise-based cardiac rehabilitation in patients with heart failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lewinter, Christian; Doherty, Patrick; Gale, Christopher P

2015-01-01

studies) was significantly reduced (RR ratio 0.65; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.50-0.84; p = 0.001), but mortality (21 studies) was not (RR ratio 0.88; 95% CI 0.77-1.02; p = 0.08). The standardised exercise capacity (26 studies) showed a standardised mean difference (SMD) in favour of the exercise group...... as compared with the controls (SMD 0.98, 95% CI 0.59-1.37; p 

Ascites Neutrophil Gelatinase-Associated Lipocalin Identifies Spontaneous Bacterial Peritonitis and Predicts Mortality in Hospitalized Patients with Cirrhosis.

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Cullaro, Giuseppe; Kim, Grace; Pereira, Marcus R; Brown, Robert S; Verna, Elizabeth C

2017-12-01

Neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) is a marker of both tissue injury and infection. Urine NGAL levels strongly predict acute kidney injury and mortality in patients with cirrhosis, but ascites NGAL is not well characterized. We hypothesized that ascites NGAL level is a marker of spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) and mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis. Hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and ascites undergoing diagnostic paracentesis were prospectively enrolled and followed until death or discharge. Patients with secondary peritonitis, prior transplantation, or active colitis were excluded. NGAL was measured in the ascites and serum. Ascites NGAL level was evaluated as a marker of SBP (defined as ascites absolute neutrophil count > 250 cells/mm 3 ) and predictor of in-patient mortality. A total of 146 patients were enrolled, and of these, 29 patients (20%) had SBP. Baseline characteristics were similar between subjects with and without SBP. Median (IQR) ascites NGAL was significantly higher in patients with SBP compared to those without SBP (221.3 [145.9-392.9] vs. 139.2 [73.9-237.2], p peritonitis in hospitalized patient with cirrhosis and an independent predictor of short-term in-hospital mortality, even controlling for SBP and MELD.

Effect of wind turbine mortality on noctule bats in Sweden: predictions from a simple population model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rydell, Jens; Hedenstroem, Anders; Green, Martin

2011-07-01

Full text: The noctule bat Nyctalus noctula is apparently the species most seriously affected by wind turbine mortality in northern Europe. It occurs in south Sweden up to about 60oN, although the abundance is much higher in lowland agricultural areas than in forests. We used a recent estimate of 90 000 individuals as the population size in Sweden, and assumed a stable starting population not affected by mortality from wind turbines. In the absence of data from Sweden, we used demographic data and fatality rates at wind turbines (0.9 noctules/turbine/year) obtained in eastern Germany. Population development up to year 2020 was calculated, based on the current estimate of wind farm development in Sweden; ca. 1000 present and 2500 additional turbines within the area of noctule distribution. The results suggest that the additional mortality at wind turbines may affect the noctule bat in Sweden at the population level. However, the effect will probably be small, particularly in comparison with other anthropogenic sources. We are currently using the model to predict the effect on other bat species and birds. (Author)

Examining intrinsic versus extrinsic exercise goals: cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sebire, Simon J; Standage, Martyn; Vansteenkiste, Maarten

2009-04-01

Grounded in self-determination theory (SDT), this study had two purposes: (a) examine the associations between intrinsic (relative to extrinsic) exercise goal content and cognitive, affective, and behavioral outcomes; and (b) test the mediating role of psychological need satisfaction in the Exercise Goal Content --> Outcomes relationship. Using a sample of 410 adults, hierarchical regression analysis showed relative intrinsic goal content to positively predict physical self-worth, self-reported exercise behavior, psychological well-being, and psychological need satisfaction and negatively predict exercise anxiety. Except for exercise behavior, the predictive utility of relative intrinsic goal content on the dependent variables of interest remained significant after controlling for participants' relative self-determined exercise motivation. Structural equation modeling analyses showed psychological need satisfaction to partially mediate the effect of relative intrinsic goal content on the outcome variables. Our findings support further investigation of exercise goals commensurate with the goal content perspective advanced in SDT.

Adjusting a cancer mortality-prediction model for disease status-related eligibility criteria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimmel Marek

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Volunteering participants in disease studies tend to be healthier than the general population partially due to specific enrollment criteria. Using modeling to accurately predict outcomes of cohort studies enrolling volunteers requires adjusting for the bias introduced in this way. Here we propose a new method to account for the effect of a specific form of healthy volunteer bias resulting from imposing disease status-related eligibility criteria, on disease-specific mortality, by explicitly modeling the length of the time interval between the moment when the subject becomes ineligible for the study, and the outcome. Methods Using survival time data from 1190 newly diagnosed lung cancer patients at MD Anderson Cancer Center, we model the time from clinical lung cancer diagnosis to death using an exponential distribution to approximate the length of this interval for a study where lung cancer death serves as the outcome. Incorporating this interval into our previously developed lung cancer risk model, we adjust for the effect of disease status-related eligibility criteria in predicting the number of lung cancer deaths in the control arm of CARET. The effect of the adjustment using the MD Anderson-derived approximation is compared to that based on SEER data. Results Using the adjustment developed in conjunction with our existing lung cancer model, we are able to accurately predict the number of lung cancer deaths observed in the control arm of CARET. Conclusions The resulting adjustment was accurate in predicting the lower rates of disease observed in the early years while still maintaining reasonable prediction ability in the later years of the trial. This method could be used to adjust for, or predict the duration and relative effect of any possible biases related to disease-specific eligibility criteria in modeling studies of volunteer-based cohorts.

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Craig I. Coleman

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. Methods We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs were calculated. Results In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4–95.8 and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4–21.1. Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3–96.5 and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7–21.5 for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9–89.2 and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2–22.0 for any complication. Conclusion IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.

External validation of a multivariable claims-based rule for predicting in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-pulmonary embolism complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Coleman, Craig I; Peacock, W Frank; Fermann, Gregory J; Crivera, Concetta; Weeda, Erin R; Hull, Michael; DuCharme, Mary; Becker, Laura; Schein, Jeff R

2016-10-22

Low-risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients may be candidates for outpatient treatment or abbreviated hospital stay. There is a need for a claims-based prediction rule that payers/hospitals can use to risk stratify PE patients. We sought to validate the In-hospital Mortality for PulmonAry embolism using Claims daTa (IMPACT) prediction rule for in-hospital and 30-day outcomes. We used the Optum Research Database from 1/2008-3/2015 and included adults hospitalized for PE (415.1x in the primary position or secondary position when accompanied by a primary code for a PE complication) and having continuous medical and prescription coverage for ≥6-months prior and 3-months post-inclusion or until death. In-hospital and 30-day mortality and 30-day complications (recurrent venous thromboembolism, rehospitalization or death) were assessed and prognostic accuracies of IMPACT with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. In total, 47,531 PE patients were included. In-hospital and 30-day mortality occurred in 7.9 and 9.4 % of patients and 20.8 % experienced any complication within 30-days. Of the 19.5 % of patients classified as low-risk by IMPACT, 2.0 % died in-hospital, resulting in a sensitivity and specificity of 95.2 % (95 % CI, 94.4-95.8) and 20.7 % (95 % CI, 20.4-21.1). Only 1 additional low-risk patient died within 30-days of admission and 12.2 % experienced a complication, translating into a sensitivity and specificity of 95.9 % (95 % CI, 95.3-96.5) and 21.1 % (95 % CI, 20.7-21.5) for mortality and 88.5 % (95 % CI, 87.9-89.2) and 21.6 % (95 % CI, 21.2-22.0) for any complication. IMPACT had acceptable sensitivity for predicting in-hospital and 30-day mortality or complications and may be valuable for retrospective risk stratification of PE patients.