WorldWideScience

Sample records for exchange rates

  1. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  2. Dynamical Clustering of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Fenn, Daniel J.; Porter, Mason A.; Mucha, Peter J; Mark McDonald; Stacy Williams; Johnson, Neil F.; Jones, Nick S

    2009-01-01

    We use techniques from network science to study correlations in the foreign exchange (FX) market over the period 1991--2008. We consider an FX market network in which each node represents an exchange rate and each weighted edge represents a time-dependent correlation between the rates. To provide insights into the clustering of the exchange rate time series, we investigate dynamic communities in the network. We show that there is a relationship between an exchange rate's functional role withi...

  3. International Prices and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Gopinath, Gita; Burstein, Ariel

    2013-01-01

    We survey the recent empirical and theoretical developments in the literature on the relation between prices and exchange rates. After updating some of the major findings in the empirical literature we present a simple framework to interpret this evidence. We review theoretical models that generate insensitivity of prices to exchange rate changes through variable markups, both under flexible prices and nominal rigidities, first in partial equilibrium and then in general equilibrium.

  4. Exchange rate determination in Vietnam

    OpenAIRE

    Thai-Ha Le

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the determinants of the exchange rate in Vietnam and suggests policy implications. Gregory-Hansen cointegration tests and generalised variance decomposition (VDC) analysis were applied to monthly data from July 2004 to December 2013. The model was built based on the three popular approaches to exchange rate determination, which are purchasing power parity (PPP) approach, balance of payment (BOP) approach, and monetary and portfolio approach. This study finds that the p...

  5. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  6. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  7. Value-Added Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Rudolfs Bems; Robert C. Johnson

    2012-01-01

    This paper updates the conceptual foundations for measuring real effective exchange rates (REERs) to allow for vertical specialization in trade. We derive a value-added REER describing how demand for the value added that a country produces changes as the price of its value added changes relative to competitors. We then compute this index for 42 countries from 1970-2009 using trade measured in value added terms and GDP deflators. There are substantial differences between value-added and conven...

  8. Exchange Rate Dynamics under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules

    OpenAIRE

    Binici, Mahir; Cheung, Yin-Wong

    2011-01-01

    We explore the role of interest rate policy in the exchange rate determination process. Specifically, we derive exchange rate equations from interest rate rules that are theoretically optimal under a few alternative settings. The exchange rate equation depends on its underlying interest rate rule and its performance could vary across evaluation criteria and sample periods. The exchange rate equation implied by the interest rate rule that allows for interest rate and inflation inertia under co...

  9. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  10. How to stabilize the currency exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    BLINOV, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    In 2015, many countries had to deal with the weakening of their currencies. Issues regarding exchange rate management by the Central Banks have again become the focal point of heated debate. For example, the Russian Ruble exchange rate has been fluctuating hugely. The problem now is not so much the Ruble's weakness as instability of its exchange rate, volatility. The management of the Central Bank claims that stabilization of the Ruble exchange rate is not possible though it is the respons...

  11. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalo Caprirolo; Vladimir Lavrac

    2003-01-01

    The paper is divided in three sections presenting some stylized facts concerning monetary and exchange rate policy framework in Slovenia. Three periods are covered: Money-based Stabilization Policy (1991-1995), Price and Real Exchange Rate Stability Dual Targeting Policy (1996-2001), and Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Policy and Accession to ERM2 (2001-).

  12. Exchange Rate Expectations and the Current Exchange Rate: A Test of the Monetarist Approach

    OpenAIRE

    V S Somanath

    1984-01-01

    The monetarist model of the exchange rate includes expectations of the future exchange rate as a determinant of the current exchange rate. This paper investigates whether expectations are a significant determinant of the exchange rate. An expectations process that is consistent with a basic monetarist exchange rate model is considered. Alternative measures of expectations are generated using this process. In the empirical tests, while the standard forward exchange premium measure of expectati...

  13. The determinants of exchange rate in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manuel BENAZIC

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The dilemma for every country with an independent monetary policy is which kind of exchange rate arrangement should be applied. Through the exchange rate policy, countries can influence their economies, i.e. price stability and export competiveness. Croatia is a new EU member state, it has its own monetary policy and currency but it is on the way to euro introduction. Regarding the experiences from the beginning of the 1990s when Croatia was faced with serious monetary instabilities and hyperinflation, the goal of Croatian National Bank (CNB is to ensure price stability and one way to do so is through exchange rate policy. Croatia, as a small and open economy, has applied a managed floating exchange rate regime. The exchange rate is determined primarily by the foreign exchange supply and demand on the foreign exchange market, with occasional market interventions by the CNB. Therefore, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, policymakers must be able to recognize how changes in these factors affect changes in the exchange rate. This research aims to find a relationship among the main sources of foreign currency inflow and outflow and the level of exchange rate in Croatia. The analysis is carried out by using the bounds testing (ARDL approach for co-integration. The results indicate the existence of a stable co-integration relationship between the observed variables, whereby an increase in the majority of variables leads to an exchange rate appreciation.

  14. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study found that a long-run relationship exists between the industrial productivity growth rate, ration of industrial production to gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate and terms of trade, and that exchange rate deregulation has significant impact on industrial performance. In order to determine the short term ...

  15. China: Exchange Rate Policy and Asian Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Alicia García-Herrero; Tuuli Koivu

    2009-01-01

    This paper shows empirically that China s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the renminbi real effective exchange rate. However, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy, alone, will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The reduction in the trade surplus is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to exchange rate appreciation. In fact, they tend to fall rather than increase. By estimating bilateral import equations fo...

  16. Interest Rate Rules for Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Gianluca Benigno; Pierpaolo Benigno; Fabio Ghironi

    2000-01-01

    This paper shows that properly designed interest rate rules can be consistent with maintaining exchange rate stability. It sheds light on the relation between interest rate rules, exchange-rate regimes, and determinacy of the rational expectations equilibrium in a modern macroeconomic framework.

  17. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  18. Exchange Rate Policy in Morocco and Persistence of Real Exchange Rate Misalignments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mohamed Bouzahzah; Radouane Bachar

    2014-01-01

    .... The objective of this article is to highlight the persistent nature of misalignments of the real exchange rate of the Dirham, especially since the adoption by Morocco of a policy exchange rate based...

  19. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  20. Real effective exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Nwachukwu, Ngozi E.; Adebayo, Racheal O.; Shettima, Abdullahi M.; Anigwe, John O.; Udechukwu-Peterclaver, Chidinma T.

    2016-01-01

    The study analyzed the relationship between relevant macroeconomic variables and the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Nigeria based on the Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER) approach. An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was estimated to obtain the equilibrium REER while the resultant levels of misalignment were computed for the period 1990 - 2014. Model results indicated that terms of trade and degree of trade openness are significant determinants of the REER, imply...

  1. DOES CURRENCY SUBSTITUTION AFFECT EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hisao Kumamoto

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the impacts of the degree of currency substitution on nominal exchange rate volatility in seven countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Argentina, and Peru. We use the Threshold ARCH model to consider the ratchet effect of currency substitution and sample periods in the 2000s, during which time the economies of the sample countries stabilized, while the U.S. dollar and euro depreciated against other major currencies following the recent global financial crisis. The presented empirical analyses show that the degree of currency substitution has significant positive effects on the conditional variance of the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate in most sample countries. Moreover, a shock to the depreciation rate of the nominal exchange rate has asymmetric effects on the conditional variance, depending on the sign. One possible explanation for these differential effects is the existence of the ratchet effect of currency substitution.

  2. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  3. MONETARY MODELS AND EXCHANGE RATE DETERMINATION ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1.242 percent increase in the nominal exchange rate (depreciation). The empirics of the results are straight forward; a domestic economy that inflates her money supply at a faster rate than does her trading partner can expect to suffer depreciation in the external value of her currency. Consequently, any change in the money ...

  4. Exchange rate arrangements: From extreme to "normal"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beker Emilija

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper studies theoretical and empirical location dispersion of exchange rate arrangements - rigid-intermediate-flexible regimes, in the context of extreme arrangements of a currency board, dollarization and monetary union moderate characteristics of intermediate arrangements (adjustable pegs crawling pegs and target zones and imperative-process "normalization" in the form of a managed or clean floating system. It is established that de iure and de facto classifications generate "fear of floating" and "fear of pegging". The "impossible trinity" under the conditions of capital liberalization and globalization creates a bipolar view or hypothesis of vanishing intermediate exchange rate regimes.

  5. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  6. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  7. HAMDALA: STRATEGIC RESPONSE TO EXCHANGE RATE ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For Nigeria at the inception of SAP, a major strategic importance in the nexus of the exchange rate policy was the reduction of the parallel market premium given the existence of the market side by side the official markets. The Hamdala, a group of Hausa `currency sellers' came into existence as a reaction to the need to act ...

  8. Intervention Analysis of Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    (OLS) and intervention model using lag operator L. Monthly time series data spanning 1980:1 to 2014:12 were used ... The data considered for the analysis is the monthly average official exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the. United State dollar for the period 1980 to 2014. Research ... In 1999, there was a big jump in the ...

  9. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    CIPG = βo + β1EXR + β2INTR + β3TOT + µ2............. (iii). Where IPGR is industrial productivity growth rate and it is calculated as;. IPGR = (IOt-1 – IOt)/IOt-1. IO is index of industrial output. CIPG is contribution of industrial production to GDP, calculated as;. CIPG = (IO/GDP) X 100/1. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial ...

  10. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article investigates the behavior of equilibrium exchange rate and real exchange rate misalignment in Sudan over the period 1979– 2009. In addition, the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance is examined. The empirical results show that the equilibrium exchange rate is significantly ...

  11. On the macroeconomic causes of exchange rates volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Claudio Morana

    2007-01-01

    What are the causes of exchange rate volatility? When second moments implications of theories of exchange rates determination are considered, long-term fundamental linkages between macroeconomic and exchange rate volatility can be envisaged. Moreover, as the exchange rate is an important determinant of aggregate demand, bidirectional causality should be expected. The results of the paper support the above intuitions pointing to important linkages and trade-offs relating exchange rate and macr...

  12. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....... ows bring us closer to the transaction level where rm decisions are actually made. I nd that the utilization of monthly data does add new information about the average level of pricing-to-market, and the di¤erences between long-run pricing-to-market and short-run pricing-to-market. Furthermore, I nd...

  13. Tanzania’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Niko A Hobdari

    2008-01-01

    Tanzania's real effective exchange rate (REER) has depreciated sharply since end-2000, reversing the appreciation that took place in the second half of the 1990s. Single-country and panel data estimates, and the external sustainability approach, suggest that Tanzania's REER is currently modestly undervalued relative to its estimated equilibrium level. Looking forward, a modest trend appreciation of the equilibrium REER is expected, consistent with continued high GDP growth and an expected rec...

  14. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    KEYWORDS:Exchange rate misalignment,co-integration and economic growth. INTRODUCTION. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance has continued to gain currency in recent policy debates. This is because exchange rate misalignment may result in undesirable economic performance. Exchange.

  15. An Empirical Exploration of Exchange Rate Target-Zones

    OpenAIRE

    Donald J Mathieson; Robert P Flood; Andrew K. Rose

    1991-01-01

    In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System are used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. Many implications of existing "target-zone" exchange rate models are tested; little support is found for existing non-linear models of limited exchange...

  16. Modeling Exchange Rate Heteroskedasticity in Nigeria (1986-2008 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons exhibiting hetroskedasticity pattern in trend since the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. On this basis, the study modelled the consistency and persistency of ...

  17. Rethinking ASGISA and the rand exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H Boshoff

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract: The ASGISA policy document identifies the exchange rate as one of the factors constraining accelerated growth in South Africa. This note argues that currency developments do not translate into business cycle movements in the aggregate economy, and that a weaker exchange rate is less likely to boost either foreign investment or export performance in the face of regulatory uncertainty. The South African government has recently launched the Accelerated and Shared Growth Initiative (ASGISA aimed at raising the long-term growth path of the economy. The plan identifies several so-called “binding constraints” that are considered to be inhibiting the economy from rising to more elevated levels of economic growth. One such “constraint”, according to the ASGISA policy document, is the “volatility and level of the currency” (Republic of South Africa, 2006. By including this issue, policymakers have signalled that fluctuations in the Rand are considered significant to broader economic fluctuations in South Africa. This research note questions such a conviction by offering evidence that currency fluctuations are not mirrored in the South African business cycle. Nonetheless, proponents may argue that a weaker Rand will stimulate particular sectors, mostly those that are export-oriented, while it will boost Foreign Direct Investment (FDI. However, this note argues further that a weaker Rand is less likely to generate sustainable improvement in either export-oriented industries or FDI in the absence of other reforms. The following sections consider these two issues in sequence.

  18. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  19. Causes and Results of Exchange Rate Intervention Under Inflation Targeting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bora Suslu

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Under inflation targeting, central banks exchange rate interventions are discussed frequently in the economic literature recently. Effectiveness of intervention in exchange rate under inflation targeting are examined from three perspectives. These are expectations of the actors and the impact on the variance, reserve accumulation and the cost of sterilization. Since 2003 the Central Bank of Turkey has intervened exchange rate with both direct and indirect methods. The purpose of this study is to examine the results of these three aspects of the CBRT and the foreign exchange interventions. We found that by logit analysis under the inflation targeting of CBRT as a result of the intervention of exchange rate is effect expectations of economic unit and reduce of exchange rate the variance; after thes intervention the variance of exchange rate and cost of sterilization are increased. In this respect, the effectiveness of the intervention of the Central Bank exchange rate market is only reserve accumulation

  20. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  1. Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Frederic S. Mishkin

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

  2. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  3. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study had been to investigate the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria. This paper adopted purchasing power parity index, the parallel market index and the model-based index of exchange rate misalignment to investigate the effects of real exchange rate ...

  4. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  5. Effects Of Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty On Private Investment In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results of the study indicated that real exchange rate uncertainty is a significant determinant of private investment and that real exchange rate uncertainty has a negative impact on private investment in Ghana. The policy implication of the findings is that government should pursue sound exchange rate policies that ...

  6. Fundamentals and the Equilibrium of Real Exchange Rate of an Emerging Economy: Estimating the Exchange Rate Misalignment in Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jauhari Dahalan; Mohammed Umar; Hussin Abdullah

    2016-01-01

      To evaluate the existence of possible over and under valuation of exchange rate for Malaysia, the study examines the nature of misalignment in the equilibrium real exchange rate and its systemic...

  7. Fundamentals and the Equilibrium of Real Exchange Rate of an Emerging Economy: Estimating the Exchange Rate Misalignment in Malaysia

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jauhari Dahalan; Mohammed Umar; Hussin Abdullah

    2016-01-01

    .... Based on the suggestion of the weak exogeneity and unit vector analysis, the study estimates the equilibrium and sustainable equilibrium real exchange rate based on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER...

  8. VOLATILITY OF EXCHANGE RATE IN THE CONTEXT OF FOREIGN TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oleg STRATULAT

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Moderate fluctuation of the exchange rate, basically in its floating regime is considered normality. Meanwhile,excessive volatility of the exchange rate is an issue for many countries. Its elimination is directed to foreign trade, which, through essential exports, followed by significant currency inflows, contribute to the stability of exchange rates. Unfortunately, Moldova’s foreign trade has become a key factor in maintaining the stability of foreign exchange.

  9. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  10. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  11. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  12. Some Aspects Regarding the Relationship between the Exchange Rate and the Interest Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Aivaz Kamer Ainur

    2011-01-01

    The literature about the relationship between the exchange rate and the interest rate is quite extensive. This paper realizes an overview of the theories, problems and limits regarding the exchange rate and one of its determinant, the interest rate.

  13. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...... a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...

  14. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2)...... knowledge based expectations rather than so-called "rational expectations".......The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2...

  15. Do Exchange Rates Move in Line With Uncovered Interest Parity?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Huisman (Ronald); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald); A. Mulder (Arjen)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractAccording to uncovered interest rate Parity (UIP), the expected relative change in an exchange rate is equal to the difference between interest rates between the two currencies. Empirically, UIP is frequently rejected. In this paper, we examine whether exchange rates have at least any

  16. Exchange Rate Regime, Real Exchange Rate, Trade Flows and Foreign Direct Investments: The case of Morocco

    OpenAIRE

    Bouoiyour, Jamal; Rey, Serge

    2005-01-01

    We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (Europe of the 15), over the period 1960-2000 (annual data). We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise of the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows (exports and imports). The misalignments affect also the trade flows: an overvaluation leads...

  17. Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: Do African exchange rates follow a random walk?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract In this paper we aim at modelling the long run behaviour of the Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER) for a pool of African countries. Not much attention has been paid to this group of countries, in particular, to the existence of nonlinearities in the long run path of such a variable. Controlling for two sources of nonlinearites, i.e. asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium and nonlinear deterministic trends allows us to gain some insight about the behaviour of the African R...

  18. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  19. Forecasting Foreign Currency Exchange Rates for Air Force Budgeting

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-03-26

    this thesis: the Federal Reserve Foreign Exchange Rate – H.10, the Global Insight forecasts, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) as taken through... Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group although we did not have access to their historical data. The ideal data set would have each countries data (whether

  20. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  1. Productive Government Purchases and the Real Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Basu, Parantap; Kollmann, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research documents that an exogenous rise in government purchases in a given country triggers a depreciation of its real exchange rate. This raises an important puzzle, as standard macro theories predict an appreciation of the real exchange rate. We argue that this prediction reflects the assumption that government purchases are unproductive. Using a simple model, we show that the real exchange rate may depreciate in response to a rise in government purchases, if those purchases inc...

  2. Exchange Rate Movement and Foreign Direct Investment in Asean Economies

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Lily, Jaratin; Kogid, Mori; Mulok, Dullah; Thien Sang, Lim; Asid, Rozilee

    2014-01-01

    .... This paper empirically analyses the exchange rate movements and foreign direct investment (FDI) relationship using annual data on ASEAN economies, that is, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore...

  3. Pricing-to-Market, the Interest-Rate Rule, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Maurice Obstfeld

    2006-01-01

    Even when the exchange-rate plays no expenditure-switching role, countries may wish to have flexible exchange rates in order to free the domestic interest rate as a stabilization tool. In a setting with nontraded goods, exchange-rate movements may also enhance international risk sharing.

  4. Investigating the effects of liquidity and exchange rate on Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Younos Vakil Alroaia

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the effects of two macroeconomic factors; namely exchange rate and liquidity on stock index. The proposed study was applied in Iran and on major index of Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2001-2011. They reported that the currency exchange maintained negative impact on stock exchange for the period of investigation. This is due to the fact that when currency devalued, working capital decreases and firms did not enough money to purchase raw materials, pay wages, etc. In addition, liquidity marinated a direct and positive relationship with exchange index. However, the impact of liquidity seems to be bigger than currency exchange.

  5. The anomalous forward premium of EUR/RSD exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Theoretically, exchange rate fluctuations should be positively related to interest-rate differential. This paper empirically examines whether such a relationship holds between EUR/RSD exchange rate and the corresponding interbank interest rates. Estimates on daily data between 2008 and 2015 obtained from a linear regression model indicate that this relationship is in fact negative, consistent with the forward premium anomaly. The result persists over different time horizons. The exchange-rate predictability builds over time. The uncovered interest-rate parity does not hold.

  6. exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    (1) Supply shocks are identified from the dynamics of oil price inflation denominated in the .... except oil prices. The exchange rate is ordered third followed by domestic prices which are ordered according to the distribution chain (i.e. MPI, WPI, and CPI). ..... Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in Pakistan.

  7. EMU, Monetary Policy Interactions and Exchange Rate Stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.D. Cavelaars

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis memorandum discusses the possible impact of a monetary union in Europe on transatlantic exchange rate stability. EMU leads to the elimination of coordination failures within the euro area. Whether this translates into more stable exchange rates, depends on the origin of the shock.

  8. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-10-07

    Oct 7, 2008 ... Abstract. This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between. 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results ...

  9. Exchange rates, petroleum prices and price determination in Sierra ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study determined the effects of monetary environment, exchange rate movement and petroleum prices on domestic prices in Sierra Leone by estimating a hybrid model of inflation. The empirical results showed that petroleum product prices, exchange rate as well as monetary factors determined inflation in Sierra Leone ...

  10. Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper empirically investigates the impact of exchange rate on theNigeria External sector (the balance of payments position) using theOrdinary Least Square (OLS) method of estimation for data covering theperiod between 1970 and 2008. We found that exchange rate has asignificant impact on the balance of payments ...

  11. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    an exchange rate is described as overvalued or undervalued when it appreciates over or depreciates under its equilibrium level – both situations refer to a misalignment. Exchange rate overvaluation can damage the potential economic growth of a country through foreign currency shortage, large current account deficits and ...

  12. Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article analyses the implications of currency substitution and exchange rate volatility for monetary policy in Nigeria. It adopts the unrestricted portfolio balance model of currency substitution, incorporating exchange rate volatility within the framework of the Vector Error Correction (VEC) technique. Results from both ...

  13. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The naira exchange rate depreciation and volatility is among the vast macroeconomic maladjustments which have unfolded in the Nigerian economy in the recent past. This paper therefore, investigates the determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria from 1981 through 2008. Having obtained the volatility of ...

  14. Exchange Rate Passthrough to Import and Consumer Prices ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The fact that Ethiopia adopted managed floating exchange rate policy since 1992 as well as various trade reform measures taken makes the country's import and consumer prices susceptible to the effects of exchange rate movements. Thus, the study investigates the degree of ERPT to import and consumer prices in ...

  15. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export...... prices and if the latter are exogenous to the exchange rate dynamics. In our view, however, commodity prices are essentially financial asset prices that are set in a forward-looking way, exactly like exchange rates. If both the exchange rate and the commodity prices are based on discounted future...... of commodity prices. Cross-predictability, in contrast, seems to be only minor at best, not robust to plausible variations in the test design, and bi-directional rather than one-directional. We show to what extent the difference between Chen et al’s empirical findings and ours is due to the presence of time...

  16. Borders and Nominal Exchange Rates in Risk-Sharing

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B; Viktoria V. Hnatkovska

    2013-01-01

    Models of risk-sharing predict that relative consumption growth rates across locations should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We investigate this hypothesis using a new multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find evidence for risk-sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across countries however, the association is reversed: relative cons...

  17. The impact of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Khosa

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Orientation: High exchange rate volatility has implications for business and policy decisions and exchange rate movements are important in debates around trade and trade policies. Research purpose: The purpose of the research was to determine the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports in emerging markets. Motivation for the study: A lack of clarity in literature regarding this relationship increases the risk of improper planning by export organisations as well as implementing suboptimal economic policies. Research design, approach and method: This research analysed the effect of exchange rate volatility on emerging market exports using a sample of nine emerging countries from 1995 to 2010. Panel data analysis was conducted. Volatility was measured by Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity and conventional standard deviation in order to determine if the instrument of volatility used influenced the nature of the relationship between exchange rate volatility and exports. The Pedroni residual cointegration method was used to test for panel cointegration in order to determine if there was a long-run relationship. Main findings: The results showed that exchange rate volatility had a significant negative effect on the performance of exports, regardless of the measure of volatility used. It was also evident that a long-run relationship did exist. Practical/managerial implications: The study concluded that the policy mix that will reduce exchange rate volatility (such as managed exchange rate regimes and relatively competitive exchange rates were essential for emerging markets in order to sustain their exports performance. Contribution/value-add: This research provided policy makers of emerging market economies with new evidence pertaining to the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the performance of exports. This research contributed to the existing knowledge on the topic and provides a base for future

  18. International Risk-Sharing and the Exchange Rate: Re-evaluating the Case for Flexible Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B

    2001-01-01

    A classic argument for flexible exchange rates is that the exchange rate plays a ‘shock-absorber' role in an open economy hit by country specific shocks. This Paper presents a sharp counterexample to this argument within a very simple open economy model. Countries are subject to unpredictable shocks to world demand for their goods. Efficient adjustment is prevented, both by sticky nominal wages and by the absence of a market for hedging consumption risk across countries. A flexible exchange r...

  19. Consumption Risk-Sharing and the Real Exchange Rate: Why does the Nominal Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?

    OpenAIRE

    Devereux, Michael B; Viktoria Hnatkovska

    2011-01-01

    A basic prediction of effcient risk-sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We investigate this hypothesis, employing a newly constructed multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find signifcant evidence for risk sharing: episodes of high relative regional consumption growth are associated with regional real exchange rate depreciation. Across coun...

  20. Modeling the Volatility of Exchange Rates: GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fahima Charef

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The modeling of the dynamics of the exchange rate at a long time remains a financial and economic research center. In our research we tried to study the relationship between the evolution of exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our empirical study is based on a series of exchange rates for the Tunisian dinar against three currencies of major trading partners (dollar, euro, yen and fundamentals (the terms of trade, the inflation rate, the interest rate differential, of monthly data, from jan 2000 to dec-2014, for the case of the Tunisia. We have adopted models of conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH, GARCH, EGARCH, TGARCH. The results indicate that there is a partial relationship between the evolution of the Tunisian dinar exchange rates and macroeconomic variables.

  1. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  2. EXCHANGE-RATES FORECASTING: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING TECHNIQUES AND ARIMA MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dezsi Eva

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates forecasting is, and has been a challenging task in finance. Statistical and econometrical models are widely used in analysis and forecasting of foreign exchange rates. This paper investigates the behavior of daily exchange rates of the Romanian Leu against the Euro, United States Dollar, British Pound, Japanese Yen, Chinese Renminbi and the Russian Ruble. Smoothing techniques are generated and compared with each other. These models include the Simple Exponential Smoothing technique, as the Double Exponential Smoothing technique, the Simple Holt-Winters, the Additive Holt-Winters, namely the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model.

  3. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  4. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  5. Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rates in Botswana | Lesotho ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates the effect of bilateral exchange rates on stock market returns in the Botswana Stock Exchange (BSE) measured by the domestic company index (DCI). To examine whether this effect exists or not, Johansen cointegration test, Vector Error Correction model (VECM), Granger causality test, Impulse ...

  6. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  7. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  8. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin: e0133678

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jeffrey Chu; Saralees Nadarajah; Stephen Chan

    2015-01-01

      Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar...

  9. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  10. An Essay on the Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Luiza Louzada Pereira

    2005-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyses the behavior of the Brazilian exchange rate (Real/US dollar and the corresponding values forecasted by the market agents, from 2001 (November to 2004 (may. We use the data-base of the Brazilian Central Bank, called Sistema de Expectativas de Mercado, which has been created in 1999. We evaluate the rational expectations hypothesis (REH for the exchange rate market, comparing the mean value predicted by some Brazilian financial institutions with the daily exchange rate that has really occurred (PTAX. The particular arrangement of the data-base allows us to make the analysis in two different ways: with fixed-event forecasts. The main result suggests that the Brazilian exchange rate market support the weak form of the REH, for short horizons of forecasting.

  11. Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: evidence from China

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Xiaobing Huang

    2017-01-01

    This paper highlights the relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and firms' export market dynamics using a Chinese firm-level production data and a firm-level trade data over the period of 2000-2006...

  12. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  13. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  14. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  15. The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra Bakhshi; Mehrzad Ebrahimi

    2016-01-01

    Unemployment is one of the problems that global economics, especially the economy of developing countries such as Iran is faced with. Therefore, there have been many studies to investigate the variables which affect unemployment in macroeconomics. Considering exchange rate volatility in recent years which have affected most of major variables of economy in Iran, this study tried to investigate the relationship between exchange rate and unemployment in Iran using the annual data of 30 years (f...

  16. International Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in the CIS

    OpenAIRE

    Gunther Schnabl

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the rationale for dollar and euro pegging in Russia and the CIS. We consider macroeconomic stabilization and transaction costs for international trade as rationales for pegging to the euro. Dollarization of international assets and liabilities are examined as determinants of exchange rate stabilization against the dollar. The impact of network externalities from a common anchor for all CIS countries is explored. Tests on de facto exchange rate stabilization reveal th...

  17. ANALYSIS OF MACROECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY IN INDIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anita Mirchandani

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The Foreign Exchange Market in India has undergone substantial changes over last decade. It is imperative by the excessive volatility of Indian Rupee causing its depreciation against major dominating currencies in international market. This research has been carried out in order to investigate various macroeconomic variables leading to acute variations in the exchange rate of a currency. An attempt has been made to review the probable reasons for the depreciation of the Rupee and analyse different macroeconomic determinants that have impact on the volatility of exchange rate and their extent of correlation with the same.

  18. Foreign Exchange-Rate Exposure of Swedish Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Stoyanov, Zahari; Ahmad, Saleem

    2007-01-01

    The main focus of the paper is the problem of exchange-rate exposure of Swedish firms between Jan, 1st 2002 and Sep, 27th 2006. Defined as “a measure of the potential for a firm’s profitability, net cash flow, market value to change because of a change in exchange rates”, the problem of exchange rate exposure is investigated, making use of the “Market Value Approach” (also known as “Stock Market Ap-proach”), with certain additional extensions. With Sweden being a very open economy with strong...

  19. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    relative to that of the USA. Estimates of 4 a and 5 a are expected to be positive, indicating a depreciation of the kwacha due to an increase in the Zambian interest rate and inflation rate respectively. Data and methodology. Data. 1Empirical studies investigating the exchange rate overshooting under the ARDL methodology ...

  20. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1990-01-01

    Capital import taxes lower (raise) world (home) interest rates. This shifts home expenditure from the present to the future and foreign expenditure from the future to today. With identical home and foreign expenditure patterns, the change in the composition of world expenditure has no effects on

  1. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    OpenAIRE

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-01-01

    Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action ...

  2. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  3. Exchange Rate Instability and Sectoral Exports: Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Haseeb

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Exports of a country is one of the main factors indicating economic health of a country and fluctuating exchange rates and relative price can significantly affect the level of exports and it is an alarming situation for a country when its exports are affected by exchange rate volatility. Impact of exchange rate volatility and relative price on trade has been a heated debate in the field of finance and most of work has been done on aggregate and bilateral trade. Few researches are found on product basis especially in the scenario of Pakistan. This research will provide an overview of the exports of 13 different products from Pakistan. Secondary data is used to analyze the impact of exchange rate instability on the exports of different products from Pakistan to all over the world. Significance of the study depends on the right choice of estimation method. We use auto regressive distributive lags (ARDL method to check the relationship of two main variables. Glass, meat and paper & board products show that relative price affects negatively to exports so Government should make policies to strengthen the exports of these three products. Government can provide subsidies on these products in order to boost up the exports and make these products competitive in international market. Under the shadow of our results we conclude that exchange rate volatility has significant negative relationship with the exports of food processing machinery, grapes, meat and petroleum products so government needs to be focused on it when exchange rate are highly instable. Iron & steel bars show short run negative impact of exchange rate however this impact is adjusted in the long run.

  4. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  5. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  6. Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization; An Empirical Study

    OpenAIRE

    Pelin Berkmen; Cavallo, Eduardo A.

    2007-01-01

    The paper identifies the contemporaneous relationship between exchange rate policy and liability dollarization using three different definitions of dollarization. The presence of endogeneity makes the empirical identification elusive. We use identification through heteroskedasticity to solve the endogeneity problem in the present context (Rigobon, 2003). While we find that countries with high liability dollarization (external, public, or financial) tend to be more actively involved in exchang...

  7. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  8. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    Recent research has revealed a wealth of information about the microeconomics of currency markets and thus the determination of exchange rates at short horizons. This information is valuable to us as scientists since, like evidence of macroeconomic regularities, it can provide critical guidance...... for designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure...... of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates....

  9. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The findings suggest that The implication of these results is that government should effectively fight inflationary pressure by implementing appropriate macroeconomic policies that can considerably tame down the level of inflation to non accelerated inflation rate of unemployment, a very sound exchange rate management ...

  10. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The model shows that relative money supplies, income levels and real interest rate differentials provide better forecasts of the naira-US dollar exchange rate. The empirical validity of our MFPM estimates is buttressed by the fact that the coefficient of the difference between the domestic and foreign money supply is close to ...

  11. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    interest rates, domestic and foreign money supply, the exchange rate regime and central bank independence (Stancik, 2007). The degree of the impact of each of these factors varies and depends on a particular country's economic condition. Thus, the countries that are in the transition process (such as. Nigeria) are more ...

  12. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  13. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  14. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  15. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity......,1) regression analysis is shown to further improve the detection of exposures. The success in identifying exposures for Danish non-financial companies is in contrast to earlier US studies and is relevant in a European context....

  16. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value...

  17. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  18. Consumption Risk Sharing, the Real Exchange Rate, and Borders: Why Does the Exchange Rate Make Such a Difference?

    OpenAIRE

    Viktoria Hnatkovska; Michael Devereux

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the nature of consumption risk-sharing within and across countries. A basic prediction of efficient risk sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions should be positively related to real exchange rate growth rates across the same areas. We provide a comprehensive investigation of this hypothesis in a multi-country and multi-regional data set. Controlling for consumption comparisons across national borders, we find significant evidence of ri...

  19. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Ajaraogu | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  20. Implications of Exchange Rate Dynamics and External Reserve for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate dynamics and external reserve on inflation and investment in Nigeria between the period 1970 – 2009, using a combination of ordinary least squares, augmented dickey fuller unit root test and the co- integration test. The changes in external reserve had a positive ...

  1. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  2. The credibility of the European exchange rate mechanism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knot, K.H.W.; Sturm, J.E.; de Haan, J.

    Using a panel data approach and three different credibility measures, we argue that unemployment, inflation, and budget deficits in participating countries have affected the credibility of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS. In contrast to most previous research, which focuses upon the

  3. Volatility Analysis of Exchange Rate of Emerging Economies: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study is to analyze the volatility of exchange rates of the currencies of the five East African Community (EAC) countries. Time series modeling is applied to the data of these countries. Various models were fitted and compared using Maximum Likelihood approach in order to select the best fitting model for each ...

  4. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dornbusch's exchange rate overshooting hypothesis has guided monetary policy conduct for many years, despite the fact that empirical evidence on its validity is mixed. This study re-examines the validity of the overshooting hypothesis by using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure. Specifi cally, the study ...

  5. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    stock market performance (Adebiyi et al., 2009). This study contributed to the study of linkage between crude oil price movements, exchange rate behaviour and stock market performance of African oil-exporting countries. The increased integration of financial markets in the world today provides investors with new ways to ...

  6. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study employed a multivariate Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that uses the Granger causality test and generalized variance decomposition analysis to study the relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rate and stock market performance in Nigeria from January 1995 to December 2014. As expected ...

  7. Neural network analysis of varying trends in real exchange rates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.F. Kaashoek (Johan); H.K. van Dijk (Herman)

    1999-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper neural networks are fitted to the real exchange rates of seven industrialized countries. The size and topology of the used networks is found by reducing the size of the network through the use of multiple correlation coefficients, principal component analysis of residuals

  8. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This work examined and evaluated in comparative terms, the effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities as well as on the total agricultural export commodities in the Pre-SAP (1972-1985) and the SAP era (1986-2010) in Nigeria. Based on the data collected from Central Bank of Nigeria ...

  9. The Effects of Trade Openness on Malaysian Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Chin; Law, Chee-Hong

    2013-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of trade openness on Malaysian exchange rate. The findings show that most of the variables are statistically significant and carried the expected signs. As predicted by the theory, the rise of the income level and stock market index in Malaysia will lead to the appreciation of domestic currency. On the other hand, the increase in trade openness and interest rate can lead to depreciation of Malaysian Ringgit. In addition, the results suggested that a rise in ...

  10. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  11. Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Entropy Optimized Multivariate Wavelet Denoising Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaijian He

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate is one of the key variables in the international economics and international trade. Its movement constitutes one of the most important dynamic systems, characterized by nonlinear behaviors. It becomes more volatile and sensitive to increasingly diversified influencing factors with higher level of deregulation and global integration worldwide. Facing the increasingly diversified and more integrated market environment, the forecasting model in the exchange markets needs to address the individual and interdependent heterogeneity. In this paper, we propose the heterogeneous market hypothesis- (HMH- based exchange rate modeling methodology to model the micromarket structure. Then we further propose the entropy optimized wavelet-based forecasting algorithm under the proposed methodology to forecast the exchange rate movement. The multivariate wavelet denoising algorithm is used to separate and extract the underlying data components with distinct features, which are modeled with multivariate time series models of different specifications and parameters. The maximum entropy is introduced to select the best basis and model parameters to construct the most effective forecasting algorithm. Empirical studies in both Chinese and European markets have been conducted to confirm the significant performance improvement when the proposed model is tested against the benchmark models.

  12. Exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the Portuguese target zone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Portugal Duarte António

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to analyse the exchange rate and interest rate distribution and volatility under the participation of the Portuguese economy in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM of the European Monetary System (EMS based on some of the main predictions of the target zone literature. Portugal adopted this exchange rate target zone from April 6 1992 until December 31 1998. During this period, the exchange rate distribution reveals that the majority of the observations lie close to the central parity, thus rejecting one of the key predictions of the Paul Krugman (1991 model. The analysis of the data also shows that exchange rate volatility tended to increase as the exchange rate approached the edges of the band, contrary to the predictions of the basic model. Interest rate differential volatility, on the other hand, seemed to behave in line with theoretical predictions. This suggests an increase in the credibility of monetary policy, allowing us to conclude that the adoption of a target zone has contributed decisively to the creation of the macroeconomic stability conditions necessary for the participation in the European Monetary Union (EMU. The Portuguese integration process should therefore be considered as an example to be followed by other small open economies in transition to the euro area.

  13. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  14. How Is the RMB Exchange Rate Misaligned? A Recent Application of Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER to China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuming Cui

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to estimate the degree of RMB misalignment from its equilibrium exchange rate by applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach. We employ monthly data with reference to China's top 20 trading partners covering the period of 1997 to 2012. We find that the RMB was slightly overvalued before 2001 and significantly undervalued by up to 20 per cent in the end of 2006. There is evidence showing that the RMB approached to its equilibrium level from 2007 to 2008. However, the global financial crisis interrupted the trend of declining misalignment of RMB exchange rate. The RMB's total misalignment increased to around 25 per cent in the mid-2011 mainly because the RMB was re-pegged to the US dollar and some currencies of China's main trading partners depreciated during the period of crisis. More recently, the degree of RMB misalignment slightly declined since 2012 when the RMB proceeded to appreciate and China's ratio of current account surplus to GDP dropped considerably. Our findings prove that there is a trend of the RMB approaching to its equilibrium exchange rate since 2007 except for the period of crisis.

  15. Kinetic model of mass exchange with dynamic Arrhenius transition rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios T.; Muradova, Aliki

    2016-02-01

    We study a nonlinear kinetic model of mass exchange between interacting grains. The transition rates follow the Arrhenius equation with an activation energy that depends dynamically on the grain mass. We show that the activation parameter can be absorbed in the initial conditions for the grain masses, and that the total mass is conserved. We obtain numerical solutions of the coupled, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations of mass exchange for the two-grain system, and we compare them with approximate theoretical solutions in specific neighborhoods of the phase space. Using phase plane methods, we determine that the system exhibits regimes of diffusive and growth-decay (reverse diffusion) kinetics. The equilibrium states are determined by the mass equipartition and separation nullcline curves. If the transfer rates are perturbed by white noise, numerical simulations show that the system maintains the diffusive and growth-decay regimes; however, the noise can reverse the sign of equilibrium mass difference. Finally, we present theoretical analysis and numerical simulations of a system with many interacting grains. Diffusive and growth-decay regimes are established as well, but the approach to equilibrium is considerably slower. Potential applications of the mass exchange model involve coarse-graining during sintering and wealth exchange in econophysics.

  16. Exchange rate policy, growth, and foreign trade in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gligorić Mirjana

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes a hot topic: the influence of an undervalued currency on macroeconomic variables - primarily on the economic growth and trade balance of a country, but also on employment, foreign exchange reserves, competition, and living standards. It also reviews and explains the consequences of yuan undervaluation, points out the need for its appreciation, and states the negative effects that stem from this measure. Special attention is given to the problematic bilateral relations between China and the USA and the reasons why Americans are worried about the exchange rate policy that China implements. Although yuan appreciation would decrease the American foreign trade deficit, it also raises the question of further financing of the American deficit. There are also other problems that the possible appreciation would cause for the American economy, due to the effect of J-curve, passthrough, larger costs of input imported from China, etc. Therefore, Chinese foreign exchange policy is an important subject, but it is not the solution to the problems of the global economy - which have deeper roots than that. However, there is no excuse for China implementing unfair exchange rate policies, or replacing such policies with controversial protectionist policies (as some authors have suggested.

  17. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  18. Asymmetric cointegration between exchange rate and trade balance in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Jibrilla Aliyu

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines the long-run pass through of the official exchange rates into trade balance in Nigeria by means of threshold cointegration and asymmetric error correction modeling. The study provides evidence for non-linear cointegration between our variables of interest. The estimated asymmetric error correction models provide new evidence for slower transmission of exchange rate depreciations into the country’s trade balance, which in turn appears to offer partial support for the Dutch disease hypothesis. This finding suggests that policy-makers cannot hope to use currency devaluation to improve the trade balance. It is recommended that policy-makers focus attention on diversification of the economy away from dependence on crude oil exports into productive manufacturing and non-oil exports, which will be vital in making the economy more competitive.

  19. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  20. Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes

    OpenAIRE

    Paul Krugman

    1986-01-01

    It has been widely remarked that US import prices have not fully reflected movements in the exchange rate. This paper begins with an investigation of the actual extent of "pricing to market" by foreign suppliers. It shows that pricing to market is a real phenomenon, but not universal; in particular, evidence on German export prices suggests that stickiness of import prices is largely confined to machinery and transport equipment. The paper then considers a number of possible models. While the...

  1. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  2. Rate theory on water exchange in aqueous uranyl ion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dang, Liem X.; Vo, Quynh N.; Nilsson, Mikael; Nguyen, Hung D.

    2017-03-01

    We report one of the first simulations using a classical rate theory approach to predict the mechanism of the exchange process between water and aqueous uranyl ions. Using our water and ion-water polarizable force fields and molecular dynamics techniques, we computed the potentials of mean force for the uranyl ion-water pair as the function of pressures at ambient temperature. Subsequently, these simulated potentials of mean force were used to calculate rate constants using the transition rate theory; the time dependent transmission coefficients were also examined using the reactive flux method and Grote-Hynes treatments of the dynamic response of the solvent. The computed activation volumes using transition rate theory and the corrected rate constants are positive, thus the mechanism of this particular water-exchange is a dissociative process. We discuss our rate theory results and compare them with previously studies in which non-polarizable force fields were used. This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences. The calculations were carried out using computer resources provided by the Office of Basic Energy Sciences.

  3. Predictability of Exchange Rates in Sri Lanka: A Test of the Efficient Market Hypothesis

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne B Wickremasinghe

    2007-01-01

    This study examined the validity of the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) for the foreign exchange market of Sri Lanka. Monthly exchange rates for four currencies during the floating exchange rate regime were used in the empirical tests. Using a battery of tests, empirical results indicate that the current values of the four exchange rates can be predicted from their past values. Further, the tests of semi-strong form efficiency indicate that exchange rate pa...

  4. Testing of empirical grounds for theoretical models of real exchange rate: research of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Petrović

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research holds the most important determinants of real exchange rate covered by various theoretical models. The empirical testing was carried out on the real exchange rate between RSD and Euro for the period from January 2007 to December 2010, which was significantly imposed by availability of consistent time series. The research pertains to five basic model specifications and is based on the testing of time series cointegration by applying Johansen and Engle-Granger’s test. The obtained results have shown that the observed models do not have grounds in empirical data. Time series figuring in models are not cointegrated, and besides that, the estimated cointegration coefficients have signs opposite to the expected ones in large number of cases. In our opinion, the reasons for such findings can be found in the fact that used time series are quite short, i.e. they pertain to the period of only four years, as well as that prices of some significant services are still under the administrative control. Still, despite the aforementioned lacks, we think that our findings can be accepted as preliminary knowledge about the ability of the observed models to explain the dynamics of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro.

  5. Exchange Flow Rate Measurement Technique in Density Different Gases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Motoo Fumizawa

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Buoyancy-driven exchange flows of helium-air through inclined a narrow tube was investigated. Exchange flows may occur following the opening of a window for ventilation, as well as when a pipe ruptures in a high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The experiment in this paper was carried out in a test chamber filled with helium and the flow was visualized using the smoke wire method. A high-speed camera recorded the flow behavior. The image of the flow was transferred to digital data, and the slow flow velocity, i.e. micro flow rate was measured by PIV software. Numerical simulation was carried out by the code of moving particle method with Lagrange method.

  6. Oil Prices and Interest Rates: Do They Determine the Exchange Rate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, I. A.; Old, J. L.

    1986-01-01

    Argues that the relationship between the British pound sterling, interest rates, and oil prices has been overemphasized by economic commentators because they ignored a basic economic theory about the determination of the exchange rate. Provides an example and suggestions for follow up instruction. (Author/JDH)

  7. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  8. INTEREST-RATE DIFFERENTIALS AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICIES IN AUSTRIA, THE NETHERLANDS, AND BELGIUM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNOT, K; DEHAAN, J

    In this paper, the small, but persistent interest rate differentials via-a-vis Germany which have existed in Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium are analysed. These interest differentials may be thought of to consist of three parts: expected exchange rate movements within the band, expected

  9. Industry-specific Real Effective Exchange Rates in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    SATO Kiyotaka; SHIMIZU Junko; Nagendra SHRESTHA; Shajuan ZHANG

    2015-01-01

    This study constructs a monthly series of industry-specific real effective exchange rates (I-REERs) based on the producer price indices of nine Asian economies from 2001 to 2014. To check the usefulness of the I-REERs as a measurement of international price competitiveness, we calculated the aggregated I-REER (Avg-I-REER) and compared it with the REER published by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS-REER). We found that in some Asian economies, the Avg-I-REER exhibited different movem...

  10. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  11. Particle loading rates for HVAC filters, heat exchangers, and ducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, M S; Siegel, J A

    2008-06-01

    The rate at which airborne particulate matter deposits onto heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components is important from both indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy perspectives. This modeling study predicts size-resolved particle mass loading rates for residential and commercial filters, heat exchangers (i.e. coils), and supply and return ducts. A parametric analysis evaluated the impact of different outdoor particle distributions, indoor emission sources, HVAC airflows, filtration efficiencies, coils, and duct system complexities. The median predicted residential and commercial loading rates were 2.97 and 130 g/m(2) month for the filter loading rates, 0.756 and 4.35 g/m(2) month for the coil loading rates, 0.0051 and 1.00 g/month for the supply duct loading rates, and 0.262 g/month for the commercial return duct loading rates. Loading rates are more dependent on outdoor particle distributions, indoor sources, HVAC operation strategy, and filtration than other considered parameters. The results presented herein, once validated, can be used to estimate filter changing and coil cleaning schedules, energy implications of filter and coil loading, and IAQ impacts associated with deposited particles. The results in this paper suggest important factors that lead to particle deposition on HVAC components in residential and commercial buildings. This knowledge informs the development and comparison of control strategies to limit particle deposition. The predicted mass loading rates allow for the assessment of pressure drop and indoor air quality consequences that result from particle mass loading onto HVAC system components.

  12. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  13. Is the EMS the perfect fix? An empirical exploration of exchange rate target zones

    OpenAIRE

    Robert P. Flood; Andrew K. Rose; Donald J. Mathieson

    1990-01-01

    In the context of a flexible-price monetary exchange rate model and the assumption of uncovered interest parity, we obtain a measure of the fundamental determinant of exchange rates. Daily data for the European Monetary System is then used to explore the importance of non-linearities in the relationship between the exchange rates and fundamentals. While some statistical evidence of non-linearities in conditional means of exchange rates is detected, these seem to have little economic content. ...

  14. Peptide dimerization-dissociation rates from replica exchange molecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy, Cathal T.; Kells, Adam; Hummer, Gerhard; Buchete, Nicolae-Viorel; Rosta, Edina

    2017-10-01

    We show how accurate rates of formation and dissociation of peptide dimers can be calculated using direct transition counting (DTC) from replica-exchange molecular dynamics (REMD) simulations. First, continuous trajectories corresponding to system replicas evolving at different temperatures are used to assign conformational states. Second, we analyze the entire REMD data to calculate the corresponding rates at each temperature directly from the number of transition counts. Finally, we compare the kinetics extracted directly, using the DTC method, with indirect estimations based on trajectory likelihood maximization using short-time propagators and on decay rates of state autocorrelation functions. For systems with relatively low-dimensional intrinsic conformational dynamics, the DTC method is simple to implement and leads to accurate temperature-dependent rates. We apply the DTC rate-extraction method to all-atom REMD simulations of dimerization of amyloid-forming NNQQ tetrapetides in explicit water. In an assessment of the REMD sampling efficiency with respect to standard MD, we find a gain of more than a factor of two at the lowest temperature.

  15. An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exchange rate policy plays an important role in national economic development and management. Thus, the debate on exchange rate management has preoccupied economists and public sector managers for a very long time. The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on tradable goods ...

  16. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

  17. A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed.

  18. Effects of exchange rate volatility on export volume and prices of forest products

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sijia Zhang; Joseph Buongiorno

    2010-01-01

    The relative value of currencies varies considerably over time. These fluctuations bring uncertainty to international traders. As a result, the volatility in exchange rate movements may influence the volume and the price of traded commodities. The volatility of exchange rates was measured by the variance of residuals in a GARCH(1,1) model of the exchange rate. We...

  19. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  20. Return Rates for Needle Exchange Programs: A Common Criticism Answered

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksobiech Kate

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study searched the available needle exchange program (NEP literature for return rate data. A total of 26 articles were found. The overall worldwide return rate was 90%, although this ranged from a low of 15% to a high of 112%. U.S. NEP return rates were gathered from only eight studies, indicating a clear need for more data, although U.S. return rates were comparable to those from NEPs outside of the U.S. One underlying assumption made by opponents of NEPs is that IDUs will not return needles to the distribution site, thereby potentially increasing the risk of health problems to the surrounding community from exposure to contaminated needles. This study's results suggest that NEPs are relatively successful in taking in used needles, although it is generally unclear where the needles were originally acquired, and if IDUs return their own needles, or are returning needles for a social network. Ways for AIDS Service Organizations to capitalize on these brief encounters with IDUs, as well as public policy implications of the findings, are discussed.

  1. Inhomogeneous scaling behaviors in Malaysian foreign currency exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniandy, S. V.; Lim, S. C.; Murugan, R.

    2001-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the fractal scaling behaviors of foreign currency exchange rates with respect to Malaysian currency, Ringgit Malaysia. These time series are examined piecewise before and after the currency control imposed in 1st September 1998 using the monofractal model based on fractional Brownian motion. The global Hurst exponents are determined using the R/ S analysis, the detrended fluctuation analysis and the method of second moment using the correlation coefficients. The limitation of these monofractal analyses is discussed. The usual multifractal analysis reveals that there exists a wide range of Hurst exponents in each of the time series. A new method of modelling the multifractal time series based on multifractional Brownian motion with time-varying Hurst exponents is studied.

  2. Nonparametric analysis of nonexponential and multidimensional kinetics. I. Quantifying rate dispersion, rate heterogeneity, and exchange dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, Mark A.; Kaur, Harveen

    2017-02-01

    The quantification of nonexponential (dispersed) kinetics has relied on empirical functions, which yield parameters that are neither unique nor easily related to the underlying mechanism. Multidimensional kinetics provide more information on dispersed processes, but a good approach to their analysis is even less clear than for standard, one-dimensional kinetics. This paper is the first in a series that analyzes kinetic data in one or many dimensions with a scheme that is nonparametric: it quantifies nonexponential decays without relying on a specific functional form. The quantities obtained are directly related to properties of the mechanism causing the rate dispersion. Log-moments of decays, which parallel the standard moments of distributions (mean, standard deviation, etc.), are introduced for both one- and multi-dimensional decays. Kinetic spectra are defined to visualize the data. The utility of this approach is demonstrated on a simple, but general, model of dispersed kinetics—a nonexponential homogeneous decay combined with slowly exchanging rate heterogeneity. The first log-moments give a geometric-mean relaxation time. Second log-moments quantify the magnitude of rate dispersion, the fraction of the dispersion due to heterogeneity, and the dynamics of exchange between different rate subensembles. A suitable combination of these moments isolates exchange dynamics from three-dimensional kinetics without contamination by the rate-filtering effects that were identified in a recent paper [M. A. Berg and J. R. Darvin, J. Chem. Phys. 145, 054119 (2016)].

  3. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  4. Continuous Time Models of Interest Rate: Testing Peso-Dollar Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Antonio Núñez

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available As an extension of the article by Núñez, De la Cruz and Ortega (2007, different parametric models with jumps are tested with the methodology developed by Ait-Sahalia and Peng (2006, based on the transition function. Data analyzed are the peso-dollar exchange rate. The idea is to implement continuous-time parametric models to the peso-dollar exchange rate. The results confirm that no continuous time model are not accurate enough to explain the behavior that describes the peso-dollar exchange rate, however, considering some continuous time models with Poisson jumps is possible to describe such behavior.Como una extensión del artículo de Núñez, De la Cruz y Ortega (2007, diferentes modelos paramétricos con saltos son probados con la metodología desarrollada por Ait-Sahalia y Peng (2006, basados en la función de transición. Los datos analizados corresponden al tipo de cambio peso-dólar. La idea es implantar modelos paramétricos de tiempo continuo para el tipo de cambio mencionado. Los resultados confirman que los modelos de tiempo continuo propuestos no son suficientemente buenos para explicar el comportamiento del tipo de cambio. Sin embargo, considerando algunos modelos de tiempo continuo con saltos de Poisson, es posible describir tal comportamiento.

  5. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Chandan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

  6. Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, Jonathan A.; Kinateder, Harald; Wagner, Niklas

    2014-05-01

    This paper addresses market risk prediction for high frequency foreign exchange rates under nonlinear risk scaling behaviour. We use a modified version of the multifractal model of asset returns (MMAR) where trading time is represented by the series of volume ticks. Our dataset consists of 138,418 5-min round-the-clock observations of EUR/USD spot quotes and trading ticks during the period January 5, 2006 to December 31, 2007. Considering fat-tails, long-range dependence as well as scale inconsistency with the MMAR, we derive out-of-sample value-at-risk (VaR) forecasts and compare our approach to historical simulation as well as a benchmark GARCH(1,1) location-scale VaR model. Our findings underline that the multifractal properties in EUR/USD returns in fact have notable risk management implications. The MMAR approach is a parsimonious model which produces admissible VaR forecasts at the 12-h forecast horizon. For the daily horizon, the MMAR outperforms both alternatives based on conditional as well as unconditional coverage statistics.

  7. Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmet BEŞKAYA

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of economic and political factors on the choice of exchange rate regimes. In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy. Our data covers the period of 1980-2013 for the selected EU countries, namely, Austria, Germany, Belgium, France, Denmark, England, Sweden and Italy. Estimation results demonstrates that the choice of fixed exchange rate regime become disadvantageous and flexible exchange rate turn out to be the right choice as financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democratization increases.

  8. Design and simulation of heat exchangers using Aspen HYSYS, and Aspen exchanger design and rating for paddy drying application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janaun, J.; Kamin, N. H.; Wong, K. H.; Tham, H. J.; Kong, V. V.; Farajpourlar, M.

    2016-06-01

    Air heating unit is one of the most important parts in paddy drying to ensure the efficiency of a drying process. In addition, an optimized air heating unit does not only promise a good paddy quality, but also save more for the operating cost. This study determined the suitable and best specifications heating unit to heat air for paddy drying in the LAMB dryer. In this study, Aspen HYSYS v7.3 was used to obtain the minimum flow rate of hot water needed. The resulting data obtained from Aspen HYSYS v7.3 were used in Aspen Exchanger Design and Rating (EDR) to generate heat exchanger design and costs. The designs include shell and tubes and plate heat exchanger. The heat exchanger was designed in order to produce various drying temperatures of 40, 50, 60 and 70°C of air with different flow rate, 300, 2500 and 5000 LPM. The optimum condition for the heat exchanger were found to be plate heat exchanger with 0.6 mm plate thickness, 198.75 mm plate width, 554.8 mm plate length and 11 numbers of plates operating at 5000 LPM air flow rate.

  9. An Empirical Study on the Long-Run Determinants of Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    I-Ming Chiu

    2008-01-01

    The behavior of exchange rates has been an important issue in the international finance literature. Although exchange rate is erratic and unpredictable in the short run, its long-run behavior is believed to be guided by economic fundamentals. This paper empirically tests the long-run determinants of the exchange rate by focusing on the Taiwan/US case. After incorporating productivity differential, foreign reserves, and monetary base in the absolute Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) proposition, w...

  10. Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Models in South Africa: How Robust Are They?

    OpenAIRE

    Egert, Balazs

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses difficulties in modelling exchange rates in South Africa. Real exchange rate models of earlier research seem to be sensitive to the sample period considered, alternative variable definition, data frequency and estimation methods. Alternative exchange rate models proposed in this paper including the stock-flow approach and variants of the monetary model are not fully robust to data frequency and alternative estimation periods, either. Nevertheless, adding openness to the s...

  11. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  12. Exchange Rates and Monetary Fundamentals: What Do We Learn from Linear and Nonlinear Regressions?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangfeng Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the association between exchange rates and monetary fundamentals with the focus on both linear and nonlinear approaches. With the monthly data of Euro/US dollar and Japanese yen/US dollar, our linear analysis demonstrates the monetary model is a long-run description of exchange rate movements, and our nonlinear modelling suggests the error correction model describes the short-run adjustment of deviations of exchange rates, and monetary fundamentals are capable of explaining exchange rate dynamics under an unrestricted framework.

  13. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...... purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions. Intervention purchases of the small currency, on average, narrow the spread while intervention sales of the small currency, on average, widen the spread. This is a novel finding that differs from...... those of existing studies that find intervention always widens the exchange rate spread and increases market uncertainty...

  14. Exchange Rate Misalignment, Capital Accumulation and Income Distribution: Theory and Evidence from the Case of Brazil

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    José Luis Oreiro; Eliane Araujo

    2013-01-01

      This article analyzes the relationship between economic growth, income distribution and real exchange rate within the neo-Kaleckian literature, through the construction of a nonlinear macrodynamic...

  15. EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND U.S. POULTRY EXPORTS: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA

    OpenAIRE

    Yuan, Yan; Awokuse, Titus O.

    2003-01-01

    Very little research exists on the potential impact of exchange rate volatility on agricultural trade. This paper evaluates the effects of exchange rate volatility on U.S. poultry exports using the gravity model on panel data. We find that exchange rate volatility has a negative effect on the U.S. poultry export but only statistically significant for the model in which we use the variance of spot exchange rate as the measurements. Consistent with previous studies, foreign incomes are also a v...

  16. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  17. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  18. Pick Your Poison: The Exchange Rate Regime and Capital Account Volatility in Emerging Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Shigeru Iwata; Evan C Tanner

    2007-01-01

    The authors characterize a country’s exchange rate regime by how its central bank channels a capital account shock across three variables: exchange depreciation, interest rates, and international reserve flows. Structural vector autoregression estimates for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey reveal such responses, both contemporaneously and over time. Capital account shocks are further shown to affect output growth and inflation. The nature and magnitude of these effects may depend on the exchange ra...

  19. Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy on Agricultural Trade in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... the farmers to enhance their productivity. These would lead to increase export of cocoa and palm oil and reduced importation of rice. These would invariably enhance the foreign exchange earning capacity of the country as well as helping in the match towards acheiving self-reliance and self-sufficiency in food production.

  20. Have Exchange Rates Become More Closely Tied? Evidence from a New Multivariate GARCH Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.J.G.M.

    1999-01-01

    We analyze the time-dependence of exchange rate correlations using a new multivariate GARCH model. This model consists of two parts. First, we transform the exchange rate changes into their principal components and specify univariate GARCH models for all components. Second, we use the inverse of the

  1. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  2. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  3. Real exchange rate behaviour and non-oil export growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study analyses the effects of real exchange rate behaviour in terms of misalignment and volatility, on the growth of non-oil exports in Nigeria. It employs two alternative measures of real exchange rate misalignment, one based on deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the other on a model estimate of ...

  4. An Empirical Re-examination of Exchange Rate-Trade Balance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The analyses showed that exchange rate depreciation led to trade balance deterioration in both the short run and the long run. Thus, this study could not find support for J-curve in Nigeria. Some suggestions on the way forward were put forth. Keywords: Trade balance; Exchange rate; Autoregressive distributed lag.

  5. Exchange Rate and Industrial Commodity Volatility Transmissions, Asymmetries and Hedging Strategies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.M. Hammoudeh (Shawkat); Y. Yuan (Yuan); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the inclusion of the dollar/euro exchange rate together with four important and highly traded commodities - aluminum, copper, gold and oil- in symmetric and asymmetric multivariate GARCH and DCC models. The inclusion of exchange rate increases the significant direct

  6. Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: evidence from panel data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torjus F. Bolksejo; Joseph Buongiorno

    2006-01-01

    Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main...

  7. External Shocks and Monetary Policy. Does it Pay to Respond to Exchange Rate Deviations?

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Caputo, Rodrigo

    2009-01-01

    .... We conclude that, in the face of most of the external shocks, a policy rule that responds to exchange rate misalignments smooths inflation and output variability, while marginally increasing interest rate fluctuations...

  8. The Empirical Research of the Impact of GDP and Exchange Rate on Foreign Exchange Reserve Scale in China-Based on Quantile Regression Model

    OpenAIRE

    Lu Fang-Yuan; Shi Jun-Guo

    2013-01-01

    Based on the relevant data from 1985 to 2010, this thesis uses a quantile regression model to make an empirical research about the effect of GDP and exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve. The findings show that: Both GDP and exchange rate have a remarkable influence on the size of foreign exchange reserve and the effect of exchange rate on foreign exchange reserve is higher than GDP at mean place and middle and lower quantile, smaller than GDP at higher quantile. At all the examined quant...

  9. East Asia’s Foreign Exchange Rate Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-07-16

    At the other extreme, Japan, the Philippines, and South Korea have usually allowed their currencies to float freely in foreign exchange ( forex ...China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam allow their currency to adjust in value in forex markets so long as the...There were also reports that Korea sold more dollars for won in early April 2008.7 At the time, some forex analysts claimed that the new South Korean

  10. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  11. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  12. The exchange rate managements in crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s

    OpenAIRE

    Taguchi, Hiroyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examined the exchange rate managements in the crisis-experienced emerging market economies after the 1990s. First, we found that the exchange rate flexibility has increased from the pre-crisis period towards the post-crisis period under the “soft peg” regime. Second, we identified a structural change in the factors for determining a reference rate in exchange rate management from the pre-crisis period to the post-crisis period. Third, we found that East Asian countries, in their ...

  13. Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durmaz Nazif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

  14. The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics -New Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Khurshid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impact of remittances on the exchange rate and exports in Pakistan, using the system GMM aproach on annual data series. We carry out a full sample Granger causality test along with the sub-sample rolling window approach using monthly data series to find the causal relationship between remittances (REM and the exchange rate (EXR. The System GMM results reveal that remittances depreciate the exchange rate and have a positive influence on export competitiveness. In addition to this, the remittance inflow appreciates the exchange rate only if it is used for savings and negatively affects competitiveness if it is channeled towards consumption. The change in exchange rate regime from multiple to flexible depreciated the exchange rate while, the global financial crises uplifted the currency rate and negatively affect the exports. The results show the bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. The outcomes further reveal that the parameters in the VAR model are unstable, which is a clear indication of the presence of structural changes. The rolling window estimation approach with time-varying characteristics finds bi-directional causality between REM and the EXR in the different sub-samples. The results of this study fall in line with the portfolio model proposed by Mussa (1984 which states that the flow of remittances causes appreciation. The sub-sample causality is related to significant economic events, which means the results are not a statistical artifact.

  15. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  16. Equilibrium exchange rate assessment in Serbia using the IMF external sustainability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate has always been a topical issue, particularly in the last two decades, at the time of strong world economy globalisation, as well as liberalization of international flows of goods, services and factors of production, which has resulted in stronger trade and financial integration. There has been a rise in the share of trade in world GDP. Growing developing countries contribute significantly to this growth, which is evident from the data that show increase of their share in world trade , as well as their importance in international capital flows. One of the most important concepts in open macroeconomics is the equilibrium real exchange rate - ERER. Deviations of the real exchange rate are considered to be the cause of the loss of competitiveness and economic slowdown, as well as possible currency crisis (overvaluation and undervaluation. Disadvantages of traditional concepts in exchange rate assessment which are very often reflected in unsuccessful empirical results, motivate experts to seek alternative models to assist in equilibrium exchange rate analysis. This paper aims to present one of three complementary methodologies used by the International Monetary Fund, for the equilibrium real exchange rate assessment in Serbia, as well as the deviation of the real exchange rate from its (estimated equilibrium, that is external sustainability approach.

  17. The Effects Of Asymmetric Transmission Of Exchange Rate On Inflation In Iran: Application Of Threshold Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naghdi Yazdan

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Given the recent fluctuation in the exchange rate and the presence of several factors such as the various economy-political sanctions (mainly embargos on oil and banking, extreme volatility in different economic fields, and consequently the devaluation of national and public procurement -A landmark that is emanating from exchange rate fluctuation - two points should be noted: First, it is essential to review the effect of exchange rate fluctuation on macro economic variables such as inflation and to provide appropriate policies. Second, the existence of this condition provides the chance to study the relation between exchange rate and inflation in a non-linear and asymmetric method. Hence, the present study seeks to use TAR model and, on the basis of monthly time series data over the period March 2002 to March 2014, to analyze the cross-asymmetric and non-linear exchange rate on consumer price index (CPI in Iran. The results also show the presence of an asymmetric long-term relationship between these variables (exchange rate and CPI. Also, in the Iranian economy, the effect of negative shocks of exchange rate on inflation is more sustainable than the one from positive shocks.

  18. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  19. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  20. Exchange Rate Pass Throught: an Analysis for the Costarican Economy from 1991 to 2001

    OpenAIRE

    Leon, Jorge; Morera, Ana Patricia; Ramos, Welmer

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates a coefficient of pass through for Costa Rica and tries to determine the importance of some factors that had been pointed out by several empiric studies as probable determinants (GDP gap, real exchange rate deviation from equilibrium, economy openness, and inflationary lag). The coefficient is estimated by OLS. In order to estimate the dynamic between exchange rate and inflation rate a VAR analysis is conducted. In the short run the pass through coefficient is 16% with two...

  1. Do Prices Determine Exchange Rate? -The Japanese Evidence for Purchasing Power Parity-

    OpenAIRE

    小島 平夫

    2010-01-01

    The longtime perplexing purchasing power parity(PPP) puz-zle has been recently resolved empirically by a pioneering financial-asset pricing approach. Applying the same extracted inflation rates, we estimate a vector error-correction(VEC) model of prices and the Japanese yen per U.S. dollar exchange rate, and find strong evidence supportive of (i) the PPP restriction which yields the equilibrium error in the form of a real exchange rate. Further, documented under the PPP relationship so detect...

  2. International Risk Sharing and the Choice of Exchange-Rate Regime

    OpenAIRE

    Hsieh, David A

    1982-01-01

    This paper examines the argument that the fixed exchange rate regime should be preferred to the flexible rate regime because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under either exchange regime. In this second best world, it is demonstrated that the ability to share risk across countries in the fixed rate regime does not necessarily lead to higher welfare t...

  3. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  4. Impacts of Exchange Rate Regime Choice on Macroeconomic Performance in Emerging Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rüstem Yanar

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of exchange rate regime choice on macroeconomic performance after Bretton Woods in emerging market countries. It is studied especially inflation, growth and financial crises. It’s found that for emerging market countries, fixed regimes are associated with lower inflation than floats. On growth effect of exchange rate regime choice is not same all period. Fixed regimes are associated with faster growth but after 1990 fixed regimes brought about slower growth. At the same time, fixed exchange rate regimes are associated with financial fragility after 1990 in emerging markets

  5. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    José Manuel Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; James F. Refalo

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  6. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...

  7. The Importance of Corporate Foreign Debt in Managing Exchange Rate Exposure in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2006-01-01

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency (foreign debt) is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  8. PEE-PEO block copolymer exchange rate between micelles is detergent and temperature activated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schantz, Allen; Saboe, Patrick; Lee, Hee-Young; Sines, Ian; Butler, Paul; Bishop, Kyle; Maranas, Janna; Kumar, Manish

    We examine the kinetics of polymer chain exchange between polymer/detergent micelles, a system relevant to the synthesis of protein-containing biomimetic membranes. Although chain exchange between polymer aggregates in water is too slow to observe, adding detergent allows us to determine chain exchange rates using time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering (TR-SANS). We examine a membrane-protein-relevant, vesicle-forming ultra-short polymer, Poly(ethyl ethylene)20-Poly(ethylene oxide)18 (PEE20-PEO18). PEE20-PEO18 is solubilized in mixed micelles with the membrane-protein-compatible non-ionic detergent octyl- β -D-glucoside (OG). We show that OG activates block copolymer exchange, and obtain rate constants at two detergent concentrations above the CMC (critical micellar concentration) of OG. We find that chain exchange increases two orders of magnitude when temperature increases from 308 to 338 K, and that even a 1 mg/mL increase in OG concentration leads to a noticeable increase in exchange rate. We also calculate the activation energy for chain exchange and find that it is much higher than for lipid exchange. These findings explain the need for high detergent concentration and/or temperature to synthesize densely packed polymer/protein membranes.

  9. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  10. THE CONCEPT OF FTS ANYLYSIS IN FORECASTING TRENDS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGES

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ireneusz Miciula

    2014-01-01

    .... Significant perturbations and high volatility have also been observed in the forex market. The purpose of this article is to determine which variables from the financial and commodity market affect the exchange rate changes...

  11. EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY AND U.S. AUTO-INDUSTRY EXPORTS: A PANEL COINTEGRATION APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veysel Avsar

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Intermediate goods are often neglected in the empirical studies of the impact of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows. Using import unit values of 58 motor vehicle products and 193 auto-parts, which are classified by the 10-digit level of Harmonized Tariff Schedule (HTS, this study examines the impact of exchange rate volatility on the U.S. automotive industry exports and imports (both motor-vehicle products and auto-parts from 37 major trading partners for the period of 1996.01 to 2008.4 by using panel data cointegration techniques. We obtain substantial heterogeneity in terms of the impact of exchange rate volatility for final and intermediate goods. We also find support for the positive hypothesis that exchange rate volatility may lead to greater levels of trade.

  12. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  13. Dataset for Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based exposure modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset provides the city-specific air exchange rate measurements, modeled, literature-based as well as housing characteristics. This dataset is associated with...

  14. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ...; and securities issued by multilateral lending institutions or regional development banks. 6. Netting a... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts A Appendix A to Subpart A of Part 1750 Banks and Banking OFFICE OF...

  15. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Malaysia before the Asian Crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Umezaki, So

    2006-01-01

    This paper provides a case study to characterize the monetary policy regime in Malaysia, from a medium- and long-term perspective. Specifically, we ask how the central bank of Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), has structured its monetary policy regime, and how it has conducted monetary and exchange rate policy under the regime. By conducting three empirical analyses, we characterize the monetary and exchange rate policy regime in Malaysia by three intermediate solutions on three vectors: ...

  16. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, Melbourne (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Prasad, Arti [Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University (Australia)

    2008-09-15

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  17. Long-Run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate; A Stock-Flow Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Hamid Faruqee

    1994-01-01

    This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets, and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country's net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of th...

  18. The Role of Exchange Rates in Korea’s Commodity Trade with China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gab-Je Jo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in deterIn this paper I investigate the link between Korea's trade balance and the exchange rate, using both aggregated and disaggregated data. Employing the bounds testing approach to cointegration, and error-correction modeling, when I use the aggregate trade balance as a dependent variable, I find no support for the J-curve in the short-run; and also find that in the long-run, the exchange rate had a significant positive impact on the trade balance. However, in both the short and the long-run, I find that the exchange rate does not play a significant role in determining the bilateral trade balance between Korea and China, nor does it improve the disaggregated trade balance. This is because the exchange rate elasticity of the trade balance depends on the nature of the commodity. Especially if the commodity is an intermediate good or a raw material, the exchange rate elasticity in trade balance could be inelastic because the demand for the intermediate good is a derived demand from the final good.

  19. The contribution of the ECU to exchange rate stability. A reply

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. JAGER

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available A brief reply to Sarcinelli’s criticism of the authors’ article The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The authors rebut the criticisms and seek to clarify their reasoning. They maintain their core hypothesis that the growth of the ECU does not necessarily enhance the stability of exchange rates but may lead to instability too.

  20. Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices

    OpenAIRE

    Bofinger, Peter; Leitner, Johannes; Schmidt, Robert

    2004-01-01

    The empirical performance of macroeconomic exchange rate models is more than disappointing. This dismal result is also reflected in the forecasting capabilities of professional analysts: all in all, analysts are not in a position to beat naïve random walk forecasts. The root for this deficient outcome stems from the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be taken from the behavioura...

  1. Import Response to Exchange Rate Fluctuations: A Micro-level Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Yao Amber Li; Jenny Xu; Carol Zhao Chen

    2015-01-01

    This paper presents theory and evidence on firms' import responses to exchange rate fluctuations using disaggregated Chinese imports data. The paper develops a heterogeneous-firm trade model that predicts import responses at both extensive and intensive margins as well as the more profound adjustment under ordinary trade than processing trade. Next, the paper empirically investigates import responses to exchange rate fluctuations at extensive and intensive margins in both the short run and th...

  2. Exchange rate pass-through to various price indices: Empirical estimation using vector error correction models

    OpenAIRE

    Bachmann, Andreas

    2012-01-01

    The extent to which exchange rate fluctuations are passed through to domestic prices is of high relevance for open economies and for monetary authorities targeting price stability. Existing empirical studies estimating the exchange rate pass-through for Switzerland are based on either single equation estimation or on VAR models. However, these approaches feature some major drawbacks. The former cannot account for dynamic interactions between the time series and both methods disregard long-run...

  3. Stochastic Discount Factor Approach to International Risk-Sharing: Evidence from Fixed Exchange Rate Episodes

    OpenAIRE

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.; C.J.M. Kool

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents evidence of the stochastic discount factor approach to international risk-sharing applied to fixed exchange rate regimes. We calculate risk-sharing indices for two episodes of fixed or very rigid exchange rates: the Eurozone before and after the introduction of the Euro, and several emerging economies in the period 1993-2005. This approach suggests almost perfect bilateral risk-sharing among all countries from the Eurozone. Moreover, it implies that emerging markets with f...

  4. Value at risk using financial copulas: Application to the Mexican exchange rate (2002-2011)

    OpenAIRE

    Plascencia Cuevas, Tania Nadiezhda

    2012-01-01

    Nowadays, the volatility of exchange rate is a crucial and a transcendental issue for all transactions, negotiations and operations taking place in foreign currency, being an objective and an accurate prediction the cornerstone. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to analyze whether the Mexican exchange rate market, risk assessment using traditional VaR and VaR with copulas methodologies are more accurate when the estimates are made for a wide historical time-series or two perio...

  5. Determination of the Electron Self-Exchange Rates of Blue Copper Proteins by Super-WEFT NMR Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Lixin; Philipp, Else Astrid; Led, Jens J.

    2001-01-01

    Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR......Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR...

  6. FINANCIAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ON BANK EXTERNAL TRADING OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignat Papazov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The term "currency" has different meanings but is usually defined as any means of payment that is not in local currency units. The ratio between the foreign currency and local currency units results into exchange rate. When arranging payment transactions abroad, local entities - natural and legal persons must exchange their national currency in advance for the currency of the country in which they are due or in another currency commonly accepted as an international payment. Under this regime, the national currency is quoted in relation to another currency, that is exchange rate.

  7. Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

    2017-05-01

    Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.

  8. The performance of one belt and one road exchange rate: Based on improved singular spectrum analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Lin; Guo, Kun

    2017-10-01

    ;One Belt and One Road; strategy in China is on push of foreign trade openness at northwest, southwest and northeast, absorption of the excess capacity and new support for economic increase. However, the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate with the countries along the road is unstable so related Chinese enterprises will face high risk of exchange rate. Precise explanation or prediction for exchange rate has been the challengeable hop point in the international finance. This paper decomposed the One Belt One Road Exchange Rate Index (OBORR) and the RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (CNYX) into trend term, market fluctuation term and noise term using improved singular spectrum analysis (SSA). It turns out that the increasing velocity of OBORR is greater than that of CNYX in the long term, and there is dynamic lead-lag structure in the medium term. In the short term, the fluctuation range and frequency of OBORR are greater than those of CNYX, which means there will be more exchange rate risks in One Belt and One Road countries.

  9. Oil price and exchange rate co-movements in Asian countries: Detrended cross-correlation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hussain, Muntazir; Zebende, Gilney Figueira; Bashir, Usman; Donghong, Ding

    2017-01-01

    Most empirical literature investigates the relation between oil prices and exchange rate through different models. These models measure this relationship on two time scales (long and short terms), and often fail to observe the co-movement of these variables at different time scales. We apply a detrended cross-correlation approach (DCCA) to investigate the co-movements of the oil price and exchange rate in 12 Asian countries. This model determines the co-movements of oil price and exchange rate at different time scale. The exchange rate and oil price time series indicate unit root problem. Their correlation and cross-correlation are very difficult to measure. The result becomes spurious when periodic trend or unit root problem occurs in these time series. This approach measures the possible cross-correlation at different time scale and controlling the unit root problem. Our empirical results support the co-movements of oil prices and exchange rate. Our results support a weak negative cross-correlation between oil price and exchange rate for most Asian countries included in our sample. The results have important monetary, fiscal, inflationary, and trade policy implications for these countries.

  10. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  11. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  12. The Role of Private Information in Short-term Fluctuations of Won/Dollar Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haesik Park

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have examined the short-run movement of the won/dollar exchange rate using information obtained from the inter-bank market in Korea. First, we constructed the hourly measure of excess demand for dollar and used it as a proxy for the trading pattern of market participants. To construct this time series, we relied on the bid and ask won/dollar exchange rates collected on the two-minute interval. We then estimated the structural VAR model consisting of the actually observed won/dollar exchange rate and the proxied trading pattern of market participants to see if private information, as opposed to public information, is relevant for explaining the hourly movement of the won/dollar exchange rate. Private information is found to account for more 30% of hourly variations of the won/dollar exchange rate. Next, we constructed the trading pattern of market participants on a daily basis using the same data set employed to build the hourly measure. We then examined whether private information is useful for predicting the daily won/dollar exchange rate movement. We found that the forecast model using both private and public information reduces out-of-sample forecast errors of an alternative model relying only on public information by 20~25%. Also, the out-of-sample forecast of the model using both private and public information is found to be more accurate than the random walk model.

  13. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  14. 73 Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria (Pp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2011-07-21

    Jul 21, 2011 ... international economic transactions because no nation can remain in autarky due to varying factor endowment. Movements in the exchange rate have ripple effects on other economic variables such as interest rate, inflation rate, unemployment, money supply, etc. These facts underscore the importance of.

  15. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The interest rate also showed a negative relationship but insignificant at the chosen 5% level of significance. This study recommended that policy makers should put in place measures that will ensure a stable macroeconomic environment since an unstable macroeconomic environment can deter investors and make them ...

  16. Examination of the effects of public spending and trade policy on real exchange rate in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang ACHAMOH

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study adopts the inter-temporal model of Rodríguez (1989 and Edward (1989 extended in Elbadawi and Soto (1997 to empirically examine the effect of public expenditure and trade openness on the real exchange rate using Cameroon data from 1977 to 2010. After exploring some issues on exchange rate and reviewing the relevant literature, the study employs residual based-cointegration technique. All the variables were stationary at level form or first differences. Public spending significantly appreciates the real exchange likewise the trade openness variable in the longrun. The results of the study suggests that appreciation of real exchange rate could be prevented by contracting public spending or adopting restrictive trade measures especially in the long run.

  17. THREATS AND BENEFITS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES FOR UKRAINE IN TERMS OF EUROPEAN INTEGRATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Svitlana Glushchenko

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to determine threats and benefits of exchange rate regimes in terms of the integration of Ukraine into the European community. Emphasizing features of the manifestation of currency exchange rate in Ukrainian practice is a precondition for choosing the optimal exchange rate regime for Ukraine, which, in its turn, will provide an opportunity to reduce inflation and implement effective tools of monetary and fiscal policies to promote further economic growth and competitiveness of the country. The uses of free-floating exchange rate and «currency board» regimes have either positive effects for Ukraine or certain threats. Methodology. This research is based on a synthesis of data on the uses of exchange rate regimes in Ukraine as an independent. It is considered angular regimes, which are by far the most suitable for Ukraine in terms of the European vector of its development. Peculiarities of using these regimes are revealed and their major threats to the domestic economy are pointed out. This article analyzes the dynamics of the trade balance of payments of Ukraine, the dynamics of the commodity structure of Ukraine`s exports and imports and the external debt of Ukraine. Results. Taking into account the experience of countries, which were in crisis situations, they show the necessity of the uses of freefloating exchange rate regime and possibilities of «currency board» regime, despite threats that they may have. World experience testifies the implementation of structural reforms, effective monetary policy, fiscal policy and discipline of the government. Thorough preparation of Ukraine’s transition to the «currency board» regime can justify itself in conditions of crisis and provide impetus to Ukrainian economy benefits. The paper defines conditions under which the success of a new model of exchange rate policy will be achieved. Practical implications. The study accents attention on the specifics of the uses of the

  18. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  19. Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Won/Dollar and Won/Yen Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwan Oh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines, using various models including a non-linear one, that the Balassa-Samuelson (BS effect can account for the persistence of deviations from PPP in the long-run movements of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rates. In test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using the generalized Johansen' cointegration method, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and the productivity variables of two countries. And in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates other fundamentals such as cumulative current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, terms of trade as well as productivity differentials, using a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and all of these fundamentals. However, the plus sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity differentials variable, which means that domestic productivity improvement produces increase in each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate is not coincident with the result that the BS effect expects theoretically. Finally, in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using a non-linear STAR model, it is found that the adjustment process in case of won/dollar real exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level can be adequately explained by a non-linear LSTAR model. But, the evidence of diagnostic statistics, which shows the existence of autocorrelation of the residuals in most of lags, might suggest the inadequacy of LSTAR model specification.

  20. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  1. A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Khalighi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this research was studying the impact of exchange rate on date export as one of the most important and greatest foreign currency income earned horticultural products in agriculture sector in Iran. Selected time period in this study was chosen between 1991 and 2011. For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS method has used to estimate the relationships between the value of date export and the variables taken from stationary tests. Library research method has used for the analysis. In this regard, required data have collected from various scientific and research resources. The results indicated that, exchange rate is a crucial factor for dates export and also for exporters. In addition, other factors specially government policies have been placed in export model. In this field, short-term outsourcing foreign policy has decreased the export value. Results also showed that, applying exchange rate unification policy without an appropriate exchange rate to encourage exporters has negative impact on dates export. Therefore, by applying exchange rate stabilization policy, according to inflation in the country, the potential exporters’ income has reduced and production costs have increased alternately.

  2. The Effects of Exchange Rate Market in the Economy of Kosova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argjira Kadrijaj Dushi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo‟s economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables.

  3. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  4. Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Waheed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2, nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

  5. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  6. The adverse effect of real effective exchange rate change on trade balance in European transition countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Begović

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Most European transition countries have fixed or highly managed flexible exchange rate regimes. This exchange rate rigidity is sometimes argued to worsen the trade balance by keeping the currency overvalued. However, there is no unambiguous evidence that currency depreciation/devaluation positively affects trade balance and leads towards the adjustment, even in the short-run. Therefore, we examine the effect of real effective exchange rate (hereafter REER on trade balance in European transition economies over the period 2000-2015. By using fixed effect model for static and generalised method of moments for dynamic estimation, we find that there is an adverse effect of the REER on trade balance in European transition countries over the period 2000-2015. Namely, depreciation of REER deteriorates trade balance in European transition countries, which could be explained by high import dependence and low export capacity. This implies that policymakers in European transition countries should not use exchange rate policy to improve trade balance. This is important in the light of their accession towards European economic and monetary integration, implying that these countries should focus more on using fiscal, rather than monetary (and exchange rate, policy to adjust trade balance, which is one of the required real convergence towards the EU standards.

  7. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  8. Gas exchange patterns and water loss rates in the Table Mountain cockroach, Aptera fusca (Blattodea: Blaberidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenewald, Berlizé; Bazelet, Corinna S; Potter, C Paige; Terblanche, John S

    2013-10-15

    The importance of metabolic rate and/or spiracle modulation for saving respiratory water is contentious. One major explanation for gas exchange pattern variation in terrestrial insects is to effect a respiratory water loss (RWL) saving. To test this, we measured the rates of CO2 and H2O release ( and , respectively) in a previously unstudied, mesic cockroach, Aptera fusca, and compared gas exchange and water loss parameters among the major gas exchange patterns (continuous, cyclic, discontinuous gas exchange) at a range of temperatures. Mean , and per unit did not differ among the gas exchange patterns at all temperatures (P>0.09). There was no significant association between temperature and gas exchange pattern type (P=0.63). Percentage of RWL (relative to total water loss) was typically low (9.79±1.84%) and did not differ significantly among gas exchange patterns at 15°C (P=0.26). The method of estimation had a large impact on the percentage of RWL, and of the three techniques investigated (traditional, regression and hyperoxic switch), the traditional method generally performed best. In many respects, A. fusca has typical gas exchange for what might be expected from other insects studied to date (e.g. , , RWL and cuticular water loss). However, we found for A. fusca that expressed as a function of metabolic rate was significantly higher than the expected consensus relationship for insects, suggesting it is under considerable pressure to save water. Despite this, we found no consistent evidence supporting the conclusion that transitions in pattern type yield reductions in RWL in this mesic cockroach.

  9. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  10. FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Dal Bianco

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH. Our results obtained, employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far as a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is found. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the policy of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

  11. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arintoko Arintoko

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM, with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient.  Keywords:    Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

  12. Correlation analysis of the Korean stock market: Revisited to consider the influence of foreign exchange rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

    2018-02-01

    We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.

  13. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  14. Time-series analysis of multiple foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in multiple foreign exchange rates. The time-dependent pattern entropy of 7 foreign exchange rates (AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and NZD/USD) was found to be high in the long period after the Lehman shock, and be low in the long period after Mar 2012. We compared the correlation matrix between exchange rates in periods of high and low of the time-dependent pattern entropy.

  15. EU enlargement and new member countries' involvement in the exchange rates system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlatka Bilas

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available For each country, joining the union is a unique process, considering advantages and disadvantages which a country can thus obtain. In order to fulfill conditions for the EU accession, transition countries must achieve different convergence criteria. Expansion of the EU brings along many challenges including coordination of policies and conducting a common monetary policy. After joining the EU new members are expected to have a minimum of two years of participation in the Exchange Rate Mechanism 2 before accepting euro. ERM2 can be a flexible and efficient framework for the determination of a appropriate level of irrevocable exchange rate fixing according to euro, as well as for achieving macroeconomic stability. Even though, considering demands for complete abolition of capital controls and high capital mobility, fixed exchange rate with fluctuation margins of ±15% is to become sensitive to the capital movements and speculative attacks.

  16. Does implied volatility of currency futures option imply volatility of exchange rates?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Alan T.

    2007-02-01

    By investigating currency futures options, this paper provides an alternative economic implication for the result reported by Stein [Overreactions in the options market, Journal of Finance 44 (1989) 1011-1023] that long-maturity options tend to overreact to changes in the implied volatility of short-maturity options. When a GARCH process is assumed for exchange rates, a continuous-time relationship is developed. We provide evidence that implied volatilities may not be the simple average of future expected volatilities. By comparing the term-structure relationship of implied volatilities with the process of the underlying exchange rates, we find that long-maturity options are more consistent with the exchange rates process. In sum, short-maturity options overreact to the dynamics of underlying assets rather than long-maturity options overreacting to short-maturity options.

  17. The dynamics of exchange rate time series and the chaos game

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristescu, C. P.; Stan, C.; Scarlat, E. I.

    2009-12-01

    This work presents a novel method of reconstructing some relevant characteristics of exchange rate time series by the superposition of two components: a mostly deterministic one, the chaos game as expressed by the Yuan/USD exchange rate and a purely stochastic one, Gaussian white noise. We analyzed 20 economic systems with the average Index of Economic Freedom above 50. The considered characteristics (the Lempel-Ziv complexity index, the slimness of the distribution and the Iterated Function Systems clumpiness test) are well reproduced by the reconstruction process. Additional confirmation is obtained by an analysis of the exchange rate of the Romanian national currency as an example of an application of the method to a transition economy, and by an analysis of the time series of the Euro-zone as an example of an application to a multinational system using a shorter time series.

  18. Investigation the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Export of Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jamalipour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural commodity export is a main attribute of developing countries and it is the basic force of development, however, developing countries have faced domestic and international instability in their markets and monetary and fiscal policies and these instabilities create a difficult condition for most of producers and exporters. Volatility in exchange market is one of the most important factor and vital concentrate for international trade especially agricultural commodity export. Because of this concern many studies have been conducted in this filed; (Aristotelous, 2001; Chen, 2009 and Sabuhoi and Piri, 2009 .Many of these studies has stated that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on aggregated agricultural export; however, none of them has been focused on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exported value of important commodities in long run and short run. In recent years, exchange rate fluctuation has been raised about 6 percent since 2007 to 2010 and it seemed that this phenomenon has a negative impact on agricultural commodity export in Iran. To test this hypothesis exported value of three important commodity (date, orange and grape and exchange rate volatility since 1970 to 2013 have been used. Material and Methods: In order to examine the relation between real exchange rate volatility and export values of date, orange and grapes, first GARCH method has been used to draw out exchange rate volatility; then, Panel unite root test has been used to check the level of integration. Since real exchange rate is not heterogeneous for different cross sections Levi-Lin and Chow unit root test has been used for this variable and IPS test has been applied to export value. Pederoni co-integration test has been used to check the integration between these variables. Finally, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods have been used to estimate long run and short run

  19. Multinational telecommunications operators : impact of market factors and foreign currency exchange rate variations in their stock returns

    OpenAIRE

    Oliveira, Maria da Conceição T. F. Monteiro H.

    2012-01-01

    Mestrado em Finanças Firms are exposed to foreign exchange risk when the results of their projects depend on future exchange rates and those exchange rates can not be fully anticipated. Through the last 50 years, exchange risk management has received increasing attention in both corporate practice and literature. Firms are also exposed to other market factors, domestic and internationally, with a major impact on their stock returns. During the past decade the telecommunications sector has ...

  20. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX): a quasi-replication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Singh, Matthew; Story, Joana S P

    2012-04-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staff (resulting in 333 useable leader-member dyads) were reanalyzed to test relations between self-other rating agreement of servant leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not statistically significant. Instead, all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by the others' ratings component alone.

  1. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  2. Effect of Depreciation of the Exchange Rate on the Trade Balance of Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kurtović Safet

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the effect of the real effective exchange rate depreciation of the lek on the trade balance of Albania using quarterly data from 1994 to 2015. Bounds testing cointegration approach, vector error correction model (VECM, and impulse response were used for the empirical analysis. The results of the study show a long-term cointegration between the real effective exchange rate (REER and the trade balance (TB. Specifically, the REER depreciation positively affects the trade balance of Albania in both the long and short run, indicating the weak presence of the J-curve effect. Important recommendations were derived from the results.

  3. The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Four Transition Economies

    OpenAIRE

    Morales, Lucia

    2007-01-01

    This article examines the dynamic relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in four Easter European markets, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, using stock price and exchange rate data from these countries, as well as stock prices from the United States, Germany and the United Kingdom. The data set consists of daily data over a 7 year period from 1999 to 2006. Both the long-run and the short-run association between these variables are analyzed. We employed the Johansen c...

  4. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: An Empirical Study into the Strategies of Industrial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    This cross-case study of eight blue-chip industrial companies extends previous studies of why exchange rate exposure management is done the way it is. While hedging should not be pursued unless it creates value, the operational objectives differ among companies. Avoiding financial distress...... is considered one of the most important ways of adding value by hedging. However, reducing stakeholders perceived risk and improving the ability to pursue investment plans and make value adding investments do also get some attention. While the overall objective is to add value, the dominating object...... in taking a partial and static financial approach when making theoretical recommendations for managing exchange rate exposures in industrial companies....

  5. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari; Nor Ermawati Hussain; Hafizah Abdul Rahim

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are inf...

  6. The contribution of the ECU to exchange-rate stability. A comment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. SARCINELLI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is a brief note criticising some essential elements of Jager and De Jong’s The private ECU’s potential impact on Global and European exchange-rate stability (1988. The author provides three points of criticism which undermine that article’s analysis. Firstly, the ECU ought to be considered in all its functions of an international reserve currency and not only as an investment currency. Secondly, the restrictiveness of the assumptions underlying the portfolio approach make the authors’ outcome useless in practice. Thirdly, the outcome of their calculations favours the hypothesis that the ECU creates exchange-rate stability.

  7. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  8. Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil; Özmen, Erdal

    2008-04-01

    This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997-1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.

  9. Explaining the Border Effect: The Role of Exchange Rate Variability, Shipping Costs, and Geography

    OpenAIRE

    David C. Parsley; Shang-Jin Wei

    2000-01-01

    This paper exploits a three-dimensional panel data set of prices on 27 traded goods, over 88 quarters, across 96 cities in the U.S. and Japan. We show that a simple average of good-level real exchange rates tracks the nominal exchange rate well, suggesting strong evidence of sticky prices. Focusing on dispersion in prices between city-pairs, we find that crossing the U.S.-Japan Border' is equivalent to adding as much as 43,000 trillion miles to the cross-country volatility of relative prices....

  10. The Exchange rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: A Quantitative Investigation

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, R.

    1996-01-01

    This paper studies dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. The model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. The predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G-7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era. The model predicts that a positive domestic money supply shock lowers the domestic nominal interest rate, that it raises output and that it lead...

  11. The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Dobrotă

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unprecedented development of international trade relations has generated the possibility of obtaining a significant part of the GDP of the participating countries in foreign trade. As a result, the issue of competitiveness in international economy has become a major concern to authorities. In the category of factors which are influencing the competitiveness level is registered the volatility of the exchange rate. In this paper there were analyzed the aspects regarding the evolution of Romania's foreign trade and exchange rate, in the context of monetary policy measures. The conclusion is that the development plan of the national economy is determined by the action of a complex of economic, social and political factors, but measures taken by the monetary authorities in relation to the regime of exchange may generate visible effects at this level and thus to the volume of foreign trade relations.

  12. South Africa and United States stock prices and the Rand/Dollar exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to examine the dynamic causal relations between the two major financial assets, stock prices of the US and South Africa and the rand/US$ exchange rate. The study uses a mixed bag of time series approaches such as cointegration, Granger causality, impulse response functions and forecasting error variance decompositions.  The paper identifies a bi-directional causality from the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock price index to the rand/US$ exchange rate in the Granger sense. It was also found that the Standard & Poor’s stock price index accounts for a significant portion of the variations in the Johannesburg Stock Exchange’s All Share index. Thus, while causality in the Granger sense could not be established for the relationship between the price indices of the two stock exchanges it can argued that there is some relationship between them. The results of the study have implications for both business and Government.

  13. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  14. Inflation, Exchange Rates and the Conceptual Framework: The FASB’s Debates from 1973 to 1984

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Detzen, D.

    2014-01-01

    In this article, I explain how two economic forces of the 1970s and 1980s, volatile exchange rates and inflation, provided a constant and compelling backdrop to the FASB’s debates on its conceptual framework. While it has been acknowledged that rising prices contributed to a move towards greater

  15. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at evaluating volatility forecasts for the US Dollar/Mauritian Rupee exchange rate obtained via a GARCH (1,1) model under two distributional assumptions: the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) and the. Student's-t distribution. We make use of daily data to evaluate the parameters of each model and ...

  16. Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H. Buiter

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

  17. Single interval longwave radiation scheme based on the net exchanged rate decomposition with bracketing

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Geleyn, J.- F.; Mašek, Jan; Brožková, Radmila; Kuma, P.; Degrauwe, D.; Hello, G.; Pristov, N.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 143, č. 704 (2017), s. 1313-1335 ISSN 0035-9009 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LO1415 Keywords : numerical weather prediction * climate models * clouds * parameterization * atmospheres * formulation * absorption * scattering * accurate * database * longwave radiative transfer * broadband approach * idealized optical paths * net exchanged rate decomposition * bracketing * selective intermittency Impact factor: 3.444, year: 2016

  18. Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Pollin; James Heintz

    2007-01-01

    This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

  19. Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babetskii, Ian; Boone, J.; Maurel, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2004), s. 212-229 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : EU enlargement * exchange rate regimes * optimal currency area criteria Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2004

  20. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  1. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at evaluating volatility forecasts for the US Dollar/Mauritian. Rupee exchange rate obtained via a GARCH (1,1) model under two distri- butional assumptions: the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) and the. Student's-t distribution. We make use of daily data to evaluate the parame- ters of each model and ...

  2. Training a multilayer neural network for the Euro-dollar (EUR/ USD) exchange rate

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jaime Alberto Villamil Torres; Jesús Alberto Delgado Rivera

    2010-01-01

    ... (as first approximation) a random walk. This paper reports the results of using ANNs for Euro/USD exchange rate trading and the usefulness of the algorithm for chemotaxis leading to training networks thereby maximising an objective function re predicting a trader’s profits. JEL: F310, C450.

  3. The Effect of Exchange Rate Variability on U.S. Shareholder Wealth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, Aline; Verschoor, W.F.C.

    2009-01-01

    We examine the relationship between financial crisis exchange rate variability and equity return volatility for US multinationals. Empirical analysis of the major financial crises of the last decades reveals that stock return variability increases significantly in the aftermath of a crisis, even

  4. Exchange Rate Volatility, Global Financial Crisis and the Day-of-the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Although the results failed to support the presence the day-of-the week effect in the FOREX rate returns, there was evidence of this effect on the volatility of the returns. Additionally, available evidence indicated persistence in volatility of the Nigerian foreign exchange market returns. The results further showed that the ...

  5. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

    This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against co...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics.......This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...... correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive...

  6. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data

  7. Is Small Beautiful? Size Effects of Volatility Spillovers for Firm Performance and Exchange Rates in Tourism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); H-K. Hsu (Hui-Kuang); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the size effects of volatility spillovers for firm performance and exchange rates with asymmetry in the Taiwan tourism industry. The analysis is based on two conditional multivariate models, BEKK-AGARCH and VARMA-AGARCH, in the volatility specification. Daily data

  8. Government Spending Shocks, the Current Account and the Real Exchange Rate in OECD Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soyoung Kim

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of government spending shocks on the current account and the real exchange rate for 20 OECD countries using panel VAR model, in order to provide empirical stylized facts. The countries were grouped based on openness and size, and the influence of openness and size on the effects of government spending shocks. The main findings are as follows. First, in the analysis of all 20 countries, in response to government spending shocks, the worsening of the current account is significant, but real exchange rate appreciation is not significant. Second, real exchange rate appreciation is more significant and worsening of the current account is more temporary in the group of countries with higher openness than in those with low openness. Third, the worsening of the current account is more significant in the group of large countries than in the group of small countries. Although real exchange rate depreciation under fiscal expansion is not consistent with traditional theories, the results are broadly consistent with the existing theories that incorporate openness and the size of the country.

  9. Growth, exchange rates and trade in Brazil: a structuralist post Keynesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson H. Barbosa Filho

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a structuralist post-Keynesian analysis of trade adjustment in Brazil. Based on the concept of the balance-of-payments (BoP constraint on growth, the paper investigates the relationship between income growth and real-exchange-rate devaluation necessary to adjust trade to a foreign-exchange constraint. The main result is that, with price-inelastic and income-elastic imports and based on its trade structure in 2002, Brazil may have to compensate an additional 1% of income growth with approximately 7% of real-exchange-rate devaluation in order to keep its trade balance stable in relation to GDP in the near future. Moreover, the trade parameters of Brazil seem to be unfavorable to growth with stable trade, that is, even moderate rates of GDP expansion lead to a substantial increase of imports and, therefore, require an also substantial devaluation of the real exchange rate to avoid a deterioration of the trade balance.

  10. A Technical Basis for Employing Facility Ventilation Air Exchange Rates in the Decision to Downpost

    CERN Document Server

    Mantooth, D S

    2001-01-01

    Utilizing the ventilation exchange rate as a basis for the decision to downpost a location within a facility from an airborne radiation area (ARA) based on initial air count(DAC). Not used in the case of a confirmed or suspected contamination release.

  11. 73 Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria (Pp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    User

    2011-07-21

    Jul 21, 2011 ... ISSN 2070--0083 (Online). Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria. (Pp. 73-88). Oladipupo, A. O. - Department of Accounting, Faculty of Management. Sciences, University of Benin, Benin City, Nigeria. E-mail: sinaoladipupo@yahoo.com. Phone: +2348055160668; +2347029654964. &.

  12. Structural Breaks and Long Memory Property in Korean Won Exchange Rates: Adaptive FIGARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the issue of structural breaks and long memory property in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange rates. To analyze the above in detail, this paper examines the dynamics of the structural breaks and the long memory in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns by using the daily KRW-USD and KRW-JPY exchange rates for the period from 2000 through 2007. In particular, this paper employs the Adaptive FIGARCH model of Baillie and Morana (2009 which account for the structural breaks and the long memory property together. This paper also finds that the new Adaptive FIGARCH model outperforms the usual FIGARCH model of Baillie et al. (1996 when the structural breaks are present and that the long memory property in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns is significantly reduced after the structural breaks are accounted for. Thus, these results suggest that the upward biased long memory property observed in the conditional variance process of the Korean exchange returns could partially have been imparted as a result of neglecting the structural breaks.

  13. The Endogeneity of the Exchange Rate as a Determinant of FDI: A Model of Money, Entry, and Multinational Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Russ, Katheryn

    2004-01-01

    This paper argues that when the exchange rate and projected sales in the host country are jointly determined by underlying macroeconomic variables, standard regressions of FDI flows on both exchange rate levels and volatility are subject to bias. The results hinge on the interaction of macroeconomic uncertainty, a sunk cost, and heterogeneous productivity across firms. They indicate that a multinational firm’s response to increases in exchange rate volatility will differ depending on whethe...

  14. EXCHANGE RATE VS. INTEREST RATE: HOW MUCH DOES UIP WORK FOR ROMANIA? (STUDY CASE ON THE EUR/RON CURRENCY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haulica Dana

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper is part of a larger research that aims to analyze the deviation between the Real Exchange Rate and the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Romania (EUR/RON currency and to come up with conclusions regarding this deviation and with solutions to minimize it, if the case. Because this is the most important discussion after having the empirical results: what do emergent markets like Romania need to do to keep up with the EU trend? Which are the concessions they have to make in order to maintain a sustainable growth? Do these concessions include breaking the present equilibrium for a future BETTER? Starting with the most well-known methods to calculate the Equilibrium Exchange Rate, this article`s purpose is to create an accurate overview on the UIP model in Romania (the interest rate differential, to verify, using the latest data if the economic environment has brought any changes on the results of this model in the latest years. Is the UIP model a trustworthy equation to establish the Equilibrium Exchange Rate? In order to verify if the UIP model was more reliable in returning a value for the Equilibrium Exchange rate in the latest years on the Romanian market, this paper presents an empirical study containing recent compiled data from the last 10 years, analyzing the 2005 – 2014 period. The NEW in this article is that the used data is very fresh, currently, most probably the only study that verifies the UIP model in Romania for this specific period of time. Why is it useful? Why is it important? Because it doesn`t only bring a confirmation of weather the UIP works for Romania or not but comes up with hints and conclusions regarding the current economic situation of Romania. We can see what has been changed in the local market in the last ten years in terms of monetary policy and what has this change brought with it – if the results are those expected or not and also, what would be the direction for the next years – to most suitable

  15. Exchange rate regimes, inflation and growth in developing countries : an assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Bleaney, Michael; Francisco, Manuela

    2007-01-01

    Official and four alternative regime classification schemes based on observed exchange rate behaviour are used to examine the relationship with inflation and growth in 91 developing countries over the period 1984-2001. Apart from one scheme that produces markedly unfavourable results for floating (for reasons that are discussed in the paper), the consistent findings are that (a) floats have similar growth rates to soft pegs and only slightly higher inflation; and (b) hard pegs have lower infl...

  16. Impacts of price and exchange rate policies on pesticide use in the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    Tjornhom, Jessica D; Norton, George W.; Gapud, Victor

    1998-01-01

    Pesticide prices can influence producer decisions to apply pesticides as opposed to nonchemical means of pest control. Those prices are in tum influenced by price and exchange rate policies. The effective rate of protection for nine pesticides commonly applied to vegetables in the Philippines was calculated to determine whether government policies are creating incentives or disincentives to adopt more integrated pest management methods. Calculations found that direct price policies, primarily...

  17. The Role of Oil Prices in Exchange Rate Movements: The CIS Oil Exporters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fakhri Hasanov

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Undoubtedly, oil prices play a crucial role in the macroeconomic performances of oil-exporting developing countries. In this regard, the exchange rate is one of the key macroeconomic indicators worthy of investigation. Existing literature shows that world oil prices play an important role in the appreciation of the exchange rates of oil-exporting developing countries. However, only a few studies have examined this issue by considering all three oil-exporting countries of the Commonwealth Independent States, namely Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Russia, together. In order to fill this gap and given the increasing importance of these economies in the world’s energy markets, this paper examines the role of oil prices in the movement of real effective exchange rates of the above-mentioned CIS countries. We applied the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing method with a small sample bias correction to the data of these countries over the 2004Q1–2013Q4 period. The estimation results indicate that oil prices are certainly a main driver behind real effective exchange rate appreciation in the selected economies. Moreover, estimations show that productivity, to some extent, can also lead to the appreciation. The policy implication of this research is that an appreciation of the real exchange rate is harmful for the exports of non-oil goods and services in these countries. Since oil prices lead to the appreciation mainly through higher domestic prices, which is a result of tremendous public spending, decision-makers should reconsider the prevailing fiscal policy to make it much more counter-cyclical.

  18. A macro-physics model of depreciation rate in economic exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marmont Lobo, Rui F.; de Sousa, Miguel Rocha

    2014-02-01

    This article aims at a new approach for a known fundamental result: barter or trade increases economic value. It successfully bridges the gap between the theory of value and the exchange process attached to the transition from endowments to the equilibrium in the core and contract curve. First, we summarise the theory of value; in Section 2, we present the Edgeworth (1881) box and an axiomatic approach and in Section 3, we apply our pure exchange model. Finally (in Section 4), using our open econo-physics pure barter (EPB) model, we derive an improvement in value, which means that pure barter leads to a decline in depreciation rate.

  19. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... testable hypotheses regarding how unannounced intervention purchases and intervention sales influence the market asymmetrically. To test these hypotheses we estimate weighted least squares (WLS) time-series models of the intraday bid-ask spread. Our main result is that intervention purchases and sales both...

  20. EFFECTS OF THE APPLICATION OF TARGETING THE EXCHANGE RATE POLICY IN MACEDONIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KRUME NIKOLOSKI

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The monetary system and monetary – credit policy in the Republic of Macedonia were built after the country gained independence from the previous federal community, when Macedonia faced problems such as: termination of many plants, increase in unemployment, increase in budget and foreign trade deficit as well as high inflation rate. The macroeconomic stability narrowly understood as reducing the inflation rate, was the first measure of the economic policy, undertaken along with the monetary independence of Macedonia. In a small and open economy, the exchange rate policy has particular importance in the control of the inflation rate and beyond: in the real economic trends. The strategy of targeting the denar exchange rate was accepted and applied with the expectation that it would act in that direction, hence the monetary policy was focused on maintaining fixed exchange rate against the euro. The determination of the country to join the European Union and to become a member of other international financial organizations is yet another reason for choosing this strategy.

  1. Glycan OH Exchange Rate Determination in Aqueous Solution: Seeking Evidence for Transient Hydrogen Bonds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battistel, Marcos D; Azurmendi, Hugo F; Freedberg, Darón I

    2017-02-02

    Hydrogen bonds (Hbonds) are important stabilizing forces in biomolecules. However, for glycans in aqueous solution, direct NMR detection of Hbonds is elusive because of their transient nature. Here, we present Isotope-based Natural-abundance TOtal correlation eXchange SpectroscopY (INTOXSY), a new (1)H-(13)C heteronuclear single quantum coherence-total correlation spectroscopy based method, to extract OH groups' exchange rate constants (kex) for molecules in natural (13)C abundance and show that OH Hbonds can be inferred from "slower" H/D kex. We evaluate kex measured with INTOXSY in light of those extracted with line-shape analysis. Subsequently, we use a set of common glycans to establish a kex reference basis set and to infer the existence of transient Hbonds involving OH donor groups. Then, we report kex values for a series of mono- and disaccharides, as well as for oligosaccharides sialyl Lewis X and β-cyclodextrin, and compare the results with those from the reference set to extract Hbond information. Finally, we utilize NMR experimental data in conjunction with molecular dynamics simulations to establish donor and acceptor Hbond pairs. Our exchange rate measurements indicate that OH/OD exchange rates, kHD, values transient Hbond OH groups and potential acceptor groups can be uncovered through MD simulations.

  2. An improved shuffled frog leaping algorithm based evolutionary framework for currency exchange rate prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dash, Rajashree

    2017-11-01

    Forecasting purchasing power of one currency with respect to another currency is always an interesting topic in the field of financial time series prediction. Despite the existence of several traditional and computational models for currency exchange rate forecasting, there is always a need for developing simpler and more efficient model, which will produce better prediction capability. In this paper, an evolutionary framework is proposed by using an improved shuffled frog leaping (ISFL) algorithm with a computationally efficient functional link artificial neural network (CEFLANN) for prediction of currency exchange rate. The model is validated by observing the monthly prediction measures obtained for three currency exchange data sets such as USD/CAD, USD/CHF, and USD/JPY accumulated within same period of time. The model performance is also compared with two other evolutionary learning techniques such as Shuffled frog leaping algorithm and Particle Swarm optimization algorithm. Practical analysis of results suggest that, the proposed model developed using the ISFL algorithm with CEFLANN network is a promising predictor model for currency exchange rate prediction compared to other models included in the study.

  3. Utilizing a Water-Soluble Cryptophane with Fast Xenon Exchange Rates for Picomolar Sensitivity NMR Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yubin; Hill, P. Aru; Dmochowski, Ivan J.

    2012-01-01

    Hyperpolarized 129Xe chemical exchange saturation transfer (129Xe Hyper-CEST) NMR is a powerful technique for the ultrasensitive, indirect detection of Xe host molecules (e.g., cryptophane-A). Irradiation at the appropriate Xe-cryptophane resonant radio frequency results in relaxation of the bound hyperpolarized 129Xe and rapid accumulation of depolarized 129Xe in bulk solution. The cryptophane effectively ‘catalyzes’ this process by providing a unique molecular environment for spin depolarization to occur, while allowing xenon exchange with the bulk solution during the hyperpolarized lifetime (T1 ≈ 1 min). Following this scheme, a triacetic acid cryptophane-A derivative (TAAC) was indirectly detected at 1.4 picomolar concentration at 320 K in aqueous solution, which is the record for a single-unit xenon host. To investigate this sensitivity enhancement, the xenon binding kinetics of TAAC in water was studied by NMR exchange lifetime measurement. At 297 K, kon ≈ 1.5 × 106 M−1s−1 and koff = 45 s−1, which represent the fastest Xe association and dissociation rates measured for a high-affinity, water-soluble xenon host molecule near rt. NMR linewidth measurements provided similar exchange rates at rt, which we assign to solvent-Xe exchange in TAAC. At 320 K, koff was estimated to be 1.1 × 103 s−1. In Hyper-CEST NMR experiments, the rate of 129Xe depolarization achieved by 14 pM TAAC in the presence of RF pulses was calculated to be 0.17 µM·s−1. On a per cryptophane basis, this equates to 1.2 × 104 129Xe atoms s−1 (or 4.6 × 104 Xe atoms s−1, all Xe isotopes), which is more than an order of magnitude faster than koff, the directly measurable Xe-TAAC exchange rate. This compels us to consider multiple Xe exchange processes for cryptophane-mediated bulk 129Xe depolarization, which provide at least 107-fold sensitivity enhancements over directly detected hyperpolarized 129Xe NMR signals. PMID:23106513

  4. Self-other rating agreement and leader-member exchange (LMX).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbuto, John E; Wilmot, Michael P; Story, Joana S

    2011-12-01

    Data from a sample of 83 elected community leaders and 391 direct-report staffers (resulting in 306 useable leader-member dyads) were used to test relations between self-other rating agreement of leadership and member-reported leader-member exchange (LMX). Results of polynomial regression analysis indicated that the self-other rating agreement model was not significantly related to member-reported LMX. Instead, virtually all of the variance in member-reported LMX was accounted for by others' ratings.

  5. Gas exchange and heart rate in the harbour porpoise, Phocoena phocoena

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Reed, J.Z.; Chambers, C.; Hunter, C.J.

    2000-01-01

    The respiratory physiology, heart rates and metabolic rates of two captive juvenile male harbour porpoises (both 28 kg) were measured using a rapid-response respiratory gas analysis system in the laboratory. Breath-hold durations in the laboratory (12 +/- 0.3 s, mean +/- SEM) were shorter than...... a comparatively high minute rate of gas exchange. Oxygen consumption under these experimental conditions (247 +/- 13.8 ml O-2. min(-1)) was 1.9- fold higher than predicted by standard scaling relations. These data together with an estimate of the total oxygen stores predicted an aerobic dive limit of 5.4 min...

  6. The common-trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the behaviour of both Common Trend (CT) and transitory components of Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations under the current float. The CT component is in most cases found to be sizeable, albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its...... estimate can be sensitive to whether or not long-run Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is imposed on the data. Further analysis suggests that both CT and transitory innovations are linked much more to interest rate changes than to productivity changes. Accordingly, it is interest rate, not productivity...

  7. Build to order and entry/exit strategies under exchange rate uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Chin-Tsai

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Under uncertainty of exchange rate, we extend the build to order production model of Lin et al. (2002 by considering the export-oriented manufacturer to make decisions to switch production location freely between domestic and foreign ones. The export-oriented manufacturer is risk neutral and has rational expectations. When we transfer the production location from domestic (foreign to foreign (domestic, and the production location transferring cost and the drift of real exchange rate are both equal to zero, then the optimal entry and exit threshold value of Cobb-Douglas production function are equal, no matter whether we use real options or net present value method. Thus export-oriented manufacturer can make decisions at the optimal transfer threshold value for transferable locations wherever the production locations are. It provides the export-oriented manufacturer with another way of thinking.

  8. Modelling the Dependence Structure of MUR/USD and MUR/INR Exchange Rates using Copula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandna Jowaheer

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available American Dollar (USD and Indian Rupee (INR play an important role in Mauritian economy. It is important to model the pattern of dependence in their co-movement with respect to Mauritian Rupee (MUR, as this may indicate the export-import behavior in Mauritius. However, it is known that distributions of exchange rates are usually non-normal and the use of linear correlation as a dependence measure is inappropriate. Moreover it is quite difficult to obtain the joint distribution of such random variables in order to specify the complete covariance matrix to measure their dependence structure. In this paper, we first identify the marginal distributions of the exchange rates of MUR against USD and INR and then select the best fitting copula model for the bivariate series. It is concluded that both the series are asymmetric and fat-tailed following hyperbolic distribution. Their dependence structure is appropriately modeled by t copula.

  9. Training a multilayer neural network for the Euro-dollar (EUR/ USD exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaime Alberto Villamil Torres

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available A mathematical tool or model for predicting how an economic variable like the exchange rate (relative price between two currencies will respond is a very important need for investors and policy-makers. Most current techniques are based on statistics, particularly linear time series theory. Artificial neural networks (ANNs are mathematical models which try to emulate biological neural networks’ parallelism and nonlinearity; these models have been successfully applied in Economics and Engineering since the 1980s. ANNs appear to be an alternative for modelling the behaviour of financial variables which resemble (as first approximation a random walk. This paper reports the results of using ANNs for Euro/USD exchange rate trading and the usefulness of the algorithm for chemotaxis leading to training networks thereby maximising an objective function re predicting a trader’s profits. JEL: F310, C450.

  10. Dissimilar Effects of World News Announcements on Euro/Dollar/Yen Exchange Rates: An Econophysics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Matesanz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of the influence of macro-economic announcements over the exchange rates volatility, but from a different perspective as it is the usual in the econometric literature. By quantifying the impact of world-wide macroeconomic information published in the economic calendar in several recent years we were able to construct long events’ time series with the objective to test whether they influence exchange rate volatilities in several currencies. In order to do that, Granger causality test was employed by using a computational approach. Our results show that announcements from U.S.A are, by far, the most important influence over the three spot forex quotes, Euro/Dollar, Euro/Yen and Dollar/Yen. The method proposed here opens the door to address several open questions until now.

  11. Implications Of Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development And Real Exchange Rate For Economic Growth In Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang Achamoh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI, financial development and real exchange rate (RER on economic growth in Cameroon using Cameroon’s annual time series data spanning the period 1977 - 2010. To address these objectives, residual based Engle-Granger test, the OLS based Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL bound testing and maximum likelihood based Johansen cointegration techniques are employed. Results of Unit roots tests show that all the series possessed unit roots at level or first difference form. The ARDL model and VECM results reveal that the RER has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while FDI and Financial Development relate positively to economic growth. These findings have implications for stimulating economic growth by increasing efficiency of the financial sector in allocating credit to the private sector and preventing real exchange rate appreciation in the shortrun.

  12. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  13. Cooperation between bound waters and hydroxyls in controlling isotope-exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasci, Adele F.; McAlpin, J. Gregory; Ohlin, C. André; Christensen, Shauna; Fettinger, James C.; Britt, R. David; Rustad, James R.; Casey, William H.

    2012-02-01

    Mineral oxides differ from aqueous ions in that the bound water molecules are usually attached to different metal centers, or vicinal, and thus separated from one another. In contrast, for most monomeric ions used to establish kinetic reactivity trends, such as octahedral aquo ions (e.g., Al(H 2O) 63+), the bound waters are closely packed, or geminal. Because of this structural difference, the existing literature about ligand substitution in monomer ions may be a poor guide to the reactions of geochemical interest. To understand how coordination of the reactive functional groups might affect the rates of simple water-exchange reactions, we synthesized two structurally similar Rh(III) complexes, [Rh(phen) 2(H 2O) 2] 3+ [ 1] and [Rh(phen) 2(H 2O)Cl] 2+ [ 2] where (phen) = 1,10-phenanthroline. Complex [ 1] has two adjacent, geminal, bound waters in the inner-coordination sphere and [ 2] has a single bound water adjacent to a bound chloride ion. We employed Rh(III) as a trivalent metal rather than a more geochemically relevant metal like Fe(III) or Al(III) to slow the rate of reaction, which makes possible measurement of the rates of isotopic substitution by simple mass spectrometry. We prepared isotopically pure versions of the molecules, dissolved them into isotopically dissimilar water, and measured the rates of exchange from the extents of 18O and 16O exchange at the bound waters. The pH dependency of rates differ enormously between the two complexes. Pseudo-first-order rate coefficients at 298 K for water exchanges from the fully protonated molecules are close: k0298 = 5 × 10 -8(±0.5 × 10 -8) s -1 for [ 1] and k0298 = 2.5 × 10 -9(±1 × 10 -9) for [ 2]. Enthalpy and entropy activation parameters (Δ H‡ and Δ S‡) were measured to be 119(±3) kJ mol -1, and 14(±1) J mol -1 K -1, respectively for [ 1]. The corresponding parameters for the mono-aquo complex, [ 2], are 132(±3) kJ mol -1 and 41.5(±2) J mol -1 K -1. Rates increase by many orders of magnitude

  14. Integrated Exchange Rate Model (IERM) & Chinese Yuan & US Dollar : The case of working capital management in logistics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jan Jansen

    2011-01-01

    With the transportation of goods over long distances not just goods but also an inventory is being shipped. The value of this inventory could change due to the fluctuations in the exchange rates of the involved (international) currencies. This article introduces an integrated exchange rate model to

  15. Using a Theory-Consistent CVAR Scenario to Test an Exchange Rate Model Based on Imperfect Knowledge

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina

    2017-01-01

    -state behavior of an an imperfect knowledge based model for exchange rate determination can be formulated as testable hypotheses on common stochastic trends and cointegration. This model obtained a remarkable support for almost every testable hypothesis and was able to adequately account for the long persistent...... swings in the real exchange rate....

  16. Impact of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (Reer) on Turkish Agricultural Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Halil Fidan

    2008-01-01

    In this work, the autoregressive vectors are used to know dynamics of the Agricultural export and import, and the real effective exchange rate (REER). In order to analyze the interactions, the impulse- response function is used in decomposition of variance, causality of Granger as well as the methodology of Johansen to know the relations co integration. The REER causes agricultural export and import in the sense of Granger. The influence displays the innovations of the RE...

  17. Stock Market Co-Movement and Exchange Rate Flexibility : Experience of the Republic of Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Park, Yung Chul; Park, Hail

    2014-01-01

    This paper argues that for countries where equity investments dominate cross-border capital flows, the proper framework for analyzing the role of a flexible exchange rate system as a buffer against external shocks is the uncovered stock return parity condition, rather than the uncovered interest parity condition. Estimation of the stock return parity condition shows that it fails to hold in the Republic of Korea largely because of co-movement in the Republic of Korea and United States stock m...

  18. Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the USA: Evidence of their Mutual Interactions

    OpenAIRE

    Stavarek, Daniel

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the nature of the causal relationships among stock prices and effective exchange rates in four old EU member countries (Austria, France, Germany, and the UK), four new EU member countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia), and in the United States. Both the long- and short-term causalities between these variables are explored using monthly data. The paper also endeavors to answer the question of whether the linkages between the analyzed economic variables...

  19. Exchange rate pass-through in the global economy – the role of emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Bussière, Matthieu; Peltonen, Tuomas A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper estimates export and import price equations for 41 countries –including 28 emerging market economies. Further, it relates the estimated elasticities to structural factors and tests for statistical breaks in the relation between trade prices and exchange rates. Results indicate that (i) the elasticity of trade prices in emerging markets is sizeable, but not significantly higher than in advanced economies; (ii) such elasticity is primarily influenced by macroeconomic factors such as ...

  20. Sudden Stops, the Real Exchange Rate and Fiscal Sustainability: Argentina's Lessons

    OpenAIRE

    Izquierdo, Alejandro; Talvi, Ernesto; Calvo, Guillermo A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper offers an alternative explanation for t he fall of Argentina's Convertibility Program based on the country's vulnerability to Sudden Stops in capital flows. Sudden Stops are typically accompanied by a substantial increase in the real exchange rate that wreaks havoc in countries that are heavily dollarized in their liabilities, turning otherwise sustainable fiscal and corporate sector positions into unsustainable ones. In particular, we stress that the required change in relative pr...

  1. Evaluating the Impact Of Foreign Exchange Rate Risk On The Capital Budgeting For Multinational Firms

    OpenAIRE

    Carl B. McGowan, Jr.

    2011-01-01

    Capital budgeting analysis has evolved to the point where large firms universally use sophisticated capital budgeting techniques.[1] However, small firms are less likely to use sophisticated capital budgeting techniques.[2] Even large firms do not generally use simulation for risk analysis in multinational project capital budgeting analysis.[3] This paper provides a discussion and example of the use of simulation in evaluating the impact of foreign exchange rate volatility on multinational pr...

  2. Monetary and exchange rate policy in small open economies: the case of Iceland

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph Stiglitz

    2001-01-01

    This paper discusses monetary and exchange rate policy and the financial risks that are involved for small open economies in the current environment of less restricted and increased volume of global capital movements. It then goes on to analyze the policy interventions that are available to reduce and manage these risks. The specific case of Iceland is discussed within this framework. While it might be preferable if the problems posed by global financial instability are addressed by reforms i...

  3. Revenue Sharing in Professional Sports Leagues as a Hedge for Exchange Rate Risk

    OpenAIRE

    Rockerbie, Duane; Easton, Stephen

    2017-01-01

    Professional sports leagues that feature teams in different countries with different currencies are exposed to exchange rate uncertainty and risk. This is particularly evident for three professional sports leagues that feature teams in the United States and Canada. We construct a simple model of a profit-maximizing team that earns its revenue in one currency and meets its payroll obligations in a second currency and participates in a league-imposed revenue sharing plan. Team profit can increa...

  4. Net capital flows to and the real exchange rate of Western Balkan countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrisch Hubert

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper uses Granger causality tests to assess the linkages between changes in the real exchange rate and net capital inflows using the example of Western Balkan countries, which have suffered from low competitiveness and external imbalances for many years. The real exchange rate is a measure of a country’s price competitiveness, and the paper uses two concepts: relative unit labour cost and relative inflation differential. The sample consists of six Western Balkan countries for the period 1996-2012, relative to the European Union (EU. The main finding is that changes in the net capital flows precede changes in relative unit labour costs and not vice versa. Also, there is evidence that net capital flows affect the inflation differential of countries, although to a less discernible extent. This suggests that the increasing divergence in the unit labour cost between the EU and Western Balkan countries up to the global financial crisis was at least partly the result of net capital inflows. The paper adds to the ongoing debate on improving cost competitiveness through wage restrictions as the main vehicle to avert the accumulation of current account imbalances. It shows the importance of changes in the exchange rate regime, reform of the interaction between the financial and the real sector, and financial supervision and structural change.

  5. ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING THE VOLATILITY OF EURO – DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václava Pánková

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The study on volatility and asymmetry of the exchange rate is applied to the Euro/USD relation. Starting in U.S.A., the financial and economic crisis influenced European Union with a certain delay. On the other hand, this years´ problems in Eurozone are paralleled by rising American economy. That is why we can expect both currencies to develop in different ways. In general, the depreciation deviation of exchange rate can lead to a higher volatility than the appreciation deviation, what implicates asymmetric effects. The uncertainty of exchange rate has a tendency to be inconstant in the time-varying cases, so it has a feature of conditional heteroscedasticity. That is why the models from the ARCH family are employed to study whether the asymmetry is present in the data in question; source: ECB. The Engle – Ng tests for asymmetry in volatility are used to determine whether an asymmetric model is required as adequate. A forecast will be given including an ex post comparison as well as an ex ante prognosis. Financial support from the GA CR project 402/09/0273 and the Research Plan MSM 6138439909 is appreciated.

  6. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    of their particle size distributions. The experiments were performed in a manipulated office setting containing a constant source of d-limonene and an ozone generator that was remotely turned "on" or "off" at 6h intervals. The particle number concentrations were monitored using an optical particle counter...... in these studies, at an air exchange rate of 1.6h $+-1$/ particle number concentration in the 0.1-0.2$mu@m size-range peaked 1.2h after the ozone generator was switched on. In the ensuing 4.8h particle counts increased in successive size-ranges up to the 0.5-0.7$mu@m diameter range. At higher air exchange rates......Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution...

  7. Volatility spillover between crude oil and exchange rate: A copula-CARR approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Y. J.; Guo, M. Y.

    2017-11-01

    Oil provides a powerful impetus for modern society's production and life. The influences of oil price fluctuations on socio-economic development are obvious, and it draws more attention from scholars. However, the distribution of oil is highly centralized, which leads to the vast majority of oil trading through foreign trade. As a result, exchange rate plays an important role in the oil business. Study on the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil gradually becomes a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we use copula and CARR model to study correlation structure and relationship between crude oil price and exchange rate. We establish CARR models as marginal models and use five copulas which are Gaussian Copula, Student-t Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula and Frank Copula to study the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Furthermore, we use Copula-CARR model with structural breaks to detect the change points in the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Empirical results show that the change points are closely related to the actual economic events.

  8. The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeqiri Izet

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a more active monetary and a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, the econometrics result show that introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost without any significant economic benefits. Therefore, introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits, since changes of the monetary policy and exchange rate regime type do not show a persistent effect on real GDP, while changes of money stock and exchange rate regime do show a strong and persistent effect on prices level.

  9. Evaluation and comparison of diffusion MR methods for measuring apparent transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Xin; Li, Hua; Jiang, Xiaoyu; Xie, Jingping; Gore, John C.; Xu, Junzhong

    2017-02-01

    Two diffusion-based approaches, CG (constant gradient) and FEXI (filtered exchange imaging) methods, have been previously proposed for measuring transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant kin, but their accuracy and feasibility have not been comprehensively evaluated and compared. In this work, both computer simulations and cell experiments in vitro were performed to evaluate these two methods. Simulations were done with different cell diameters (5, 10, 20 μm), a broad range of kin values (0.02-30 s-1) and different SNR's, and simulated kin's were directly compared with the ground truth values. Human leukemia K562 cells were cultured and treated with saponin to selectively change cell transmembrane permeability. The agreement between measured kin's of both methods was also evaluated. The results suggest that, without noise, the CG method provides reasonably accurate estimation of kin especially when it is smaller than 10 s-1, which is in the typical physiological range of many biological tissues. However, although the FEXI method overestimates kin even with corrections for the effects of extracellular water fraction, it provides reasonable estimates with practical SNR's and more importantly, the fitted apparent exchange rate AXR showed approximately linear dependence on the ground truth kin. In conclusion, either CG or FEXI method provides a sensitive means to characterize the variations in transcytolemmal water exchange rate constant kin, although the accuracy and specificity is usually compromised. The non-imaging CG method provides more accurate estimation of kin, but limited to large volume-of-interest. Although the accuracy of FEXI is compromised with extracellular volume fraction, it is capable of spatially mapping kin in practice.

  10. Photolithography and Fluorescence Correlation Spectroscopy used to examine the rates of exchange in reverse micelle systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norris, Zach; Mawson, Cara; Johnson, Kyron; Kessler, Sarah; Rebecca, Anne; Wolf, Nathan; Lim, Michael; Nucci, Nathaniel

    Reverse micelles are molecular complexes that encapsulate a nanoscale pool of water in a surfactant shell dissolved in non-polar solvent. These complexes have a wide range of applications, and in all cases, the degree to which reverse micelles (RM) exchange their contents is relevant for their use. Despite its importance, this aspect of RM behavior is poorly understood. Photolithography is employed here to create micro and nano scale fluidic systems in which mixing rates can be precisely measured using fluorescence correlation spectroscopy (FCS). Micro-channel patterns are etched using reactive ion etching process into a layer of silicon dioxide on crystalline silicon substrates. Solutions containing mixtures of reverse micelles, proteins, and fluorophores are placed into reservoirs in the patterns, while diffusion and exchange between RMs is monitored using a FCS system built from a modified confocal Raman spectrometer. Using this approach, the diffusion and exchange rates for RM systems are measured as a function of the components of the RM mixture. Funding provided by Rowan University.

  11. The interactive effect of leader-member exchange and communication frequency on performance ratings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kacmar, K Michele; Witt, L A; Zivnuska, Suzanne; Gully, Stanley M

    2003-08-01

    The authors tested the hypothesis that communication frequency moderates the relationship between leader-member exchange (LMX) and job-performance ratings. In a study of 188 private sector workers, they found that LMX was more strongly related to job-performance ratings among individuals reporting frequent communication with the supervisor than among those reporting infrequent communication. At high levels of LMX, workers reporting frequent communication with the supervisor received more favorable job-performance ratings than did workers reporting infrequent communication. In contrast, at low levels of LMX, workers reporting frequent communication with the supervisor received less favorable job-performance ratings than workers reporting infrequent communication. The authors conducted a 2nd study of 153 public sector workers to provide a constructive replication and found similar results.

  12. Investigating the Existence of Chaos in Inflation Data in relation to Chaotic Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pritha Das

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Foreign exchange (ForEx rates are amongst the most important economic indices in the international monetary markets. ForEx rate represents the value of one currency in another and it fluctuates over time. It is related to indicators like inflation, interest rate, gross domestic product, and so forth. In a series of works, we investigated and confirmed the chaotic property of ForEx rates by finding positive largest Lyapunov exponent (LLE. As inflation influences ForEx, in this work we would like to address the specific question, Is inflation data also chaotic? We collected data for time period of 2000 to 2013 and tested for nonlinearity in data by surrogate method. Calculating LLE, we find existence of chaos in inflation data for some countries.

  13. Modified Perfluorocarbon Tracer Method for Measuring Effective Multizone Air Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masashi Gamo

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available A modified procedure was developed for the measurement of the effective air exchange rate, which represents the relationship between the pollutants emitted from indoor sources and the residents’ level of exposure, by placing the dosers of tracer gas at locations that resemble indoor emission sources. To measure the 24-h-average effective air exchange rates in future surveys based on this procedure, a low-cost, easy-to-use perfluorocarbon tracer (PFT doser with a stable dosing rate was developed by using double glass vials, a needle, a polyethylene-sintered filter, and a diffusion tube. Carbon molecular sieve cartridges and carbon disulfide (CS2 were used for passive sampling and extraction of the tracer gas, respectively. Recovery efficiencies, sampling rates, and lower detection limits for 24-h sampling of hexafluorobenzene, octafluorotoluene, and perfluoroallylbenzene were 40% ± 3%, 72% ± 5%, and 84% ± 6%; 10.5 ± 1.1, 14.4 ± 1.4, and 12.2 ± 0.49 mL min−1; and 0.20, 0.17, and 0.26 μg m–3, respectively.

  14. Testing the Monetary Model for Exchange Rate Determination in South Africa: Evidence from 101 Years of Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riané de Bruyn

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence in favor of the monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand is, at best, mixed. A co-integrating relationship between the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals forms the basis of the monetary model. With the econometric literature suggesting that the span of the data, not the frequency, determines the power of the co-integration tests and the studies on South Africa primarily using short-span data from the post-Bretton Woods era, we decided to test the long-run monetary model of exchange rate determination for the South African Rand relative to the US Dollar using annual data from 1910 – 2010. The results provide some support for the monetary model in that long-run co-integration is found between the nominal exchange rate and the output and money supply deviations. However, the theoretical restrictions required by the monetary model are rejected. A vector error-correction model identifies both the nominal exchange rate and the monetary fundamentals as the channel for the adjustment process of deviations from the long-run equilibrium exchange rate. A subsequent comparison of nominal exchange rate forecasts based on the monetary model with those of the random walk model suggests that the forecasting performance of the monetary model is superior.

  15. Firm Dynamics and Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations: Does Trade Openness Matter? Evidence from Mexico´s Manufacturing Sector.

    OpenAIRE

    Fuentes, Miguel de, aut; Ibarrarán, Pablo

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we study the effect of NAFTA on the responsiveness of the Mexican economy to real exchange rate shocks. We argue that, by opening the U.S. and Canadian markets to Mexican goods, NAFTA made it easier for domestic producers to take advantage of the opportunities brought by the depreciation of the real exchange rate. To identify this mechanism, we use plant-level data and compare the behavior of employment, production and investment after two big real exchange rate shocks: the firs...

  16. Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Really Matter? Theoretical Aspects, Literature Review and Applied Proposal.

    OpenAIRE

    Ruiz, Isabel Cristina

    2005-01-01

    This paper re-examines the role of exchange rates as determinant of FDI. It extends the analysis to include the issue of how exchange rates determine the decision of invest in one country depending on whether the firm is deciding to invest on the country to service the local market or to invest on the country in order to re-export. This paper offers a broad literature review of the state of the empirical research in order to draw conclusions of the real importance of the exchange rate as a de...

  17. The importance of corporate foreign debt as an alternative to currency derivatives in actual management of exchange rate exposures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    This empirical study of the exchange rate exposure management of Danish non-financial firms listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange shows that debt denominated in foreign currency ("foreign debt") is a very important alternative to the use of currency derivatives. The results show that the relative...

  18. Microbial desalination cells packed with ion-exchange resin to enhance water desalination rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morel, Alexandre; Zuo, Kuichang; Xia, Xue; Wei, Jincheng; Luo, Xi; Liang, Peng; Huang, Xia

    2012-08-01

    A novel configuration of microbial desalination cell (MDC) packed with ion-exchange resin (R-MDC) was proposed to enhance water desalination rate. Compared with classic MDC (C-MDC), an obvious increase in desalination rate (DR) was obtained by R-MDC. With relatively low concentration (10-2 g/L NaCl) influents, the DR values of R-MDC were about 1.5-8 times those of C-MDC. Ion-exchange resins packed in the desalination chamber worked as conductor and thus counteracted the increase in ohmic resistance during treatment of low concentration salt water. Ohmic resistances of R-MDC stabilized at 3.0-4.7 Ω. By contrast, the ohmic resistances of C-MDC ranged from 5.5 to 12.7 Ω, which were 55-272% higher than those of R-MDC. Remarkable improvement in desalination rate helped improve charge efficiency for desalination in R-MDC. The results first showed the potential of R-MDC in the desalination of water with low salinity. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Real exchange rate, trade flows and foreign direct investments: the Moroccan case

    OpenAIRE

    Bouoiyour, Jamal; Rey, Serge

    2005-01-01

    We study the behavior of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) of the dirham against the European currencies (the EU15), over the period 1960–2000. We measure the volatility using standard deviation, and the misalignments as the difference between the actual REER and the equilibrium REER (NATREX model). We show that a rise in the volatility of the dirham reduces the trade flows, i.e. the exports and the imports. The misalignments also affect the trade flows: an overvaluation leads to a redu...

  20. The Proximity-Concentration Trade-Off under Goods Price and Exchange Rate Uncertainty

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yalcin, Erdal

    The underlying model combines the proximity-concentration trade-o? framework with the real option approach. In contrast to the latest trade models, uncertainty is introduced as a continuous phenomenon. Furthermore, the model contains the innovation of comparing two option values simultaneously....... The implementation of goods price uncertainty turns out to reduce the probability of entering a new market as an exporter. FDI becomes the optimal entry mode with increasing uncertainty. Additionally, the model is extended by implementing exchange rate uncertainty in a period of appreciation....

  1. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    ‡ows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large in‡ows of aid facilitated a serious overappreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s...... was associated with lacking growth while the reactivation of aid ‡ows in the 1980s supported an economic rebound. When monetary and external factors are properly accounted for, we …nd that aid has been pivotal to growth in both real GDP and investment....

  2. On Value at Risk for Foreign Exchange Rates --- the Copula Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaworski, P.

    2006-11-01

    The aim of this paper is to determine the Value at Risk (VaR) of the portfolio consisting of long positions in foreign currencies on an emerging market. Basing on empirical data we restrict ourselves to the case when the tail parts of distributions of logarithmic returns of these assets follow the power laws and the lower tail of associated copula C follows the power law of degree 1. We will illustrate the practical usefulness of this approach by the analysis of the exchange rates of EUR and CHF at the Polish forex market.

  3. Asymmetric Effects of Global Liquidity Expansion on Foreign Portfolio Inflows, Exchange Rates, and Stock Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong-Eun Rhee

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of global liquidity expansion on advanced and emerging economies by using panel VAR methodology. The results show that global liquidity expansion tends to boost economy by increasing GDP growth and stock prices. However, we find that the effects are asymmetric. The effects of global liquidity on GDP and stock prices are greater and more persistent in emerging economies than in liquidity recipient advanced economies. Moreover, global liquidity appreciates emerging economies' exchange rates more persistently than those of advanced economies. Lastly, while global liquidity expansion increases foreign portfolio investment inflows to Asian countries and liquidity recipient advanced economies, there is no evidence for Latin American countries.

  4. The Possible Trinity: Optimal Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Taxes on Capital Flows in a DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Guillermo J Escudé

    2014-01-01

      A traditional way of thinking about the exchange rate (XR) regime and capital account openness has been framed in terms of the 'impossible trinity' or 'trilemma', in which policymakers can only have 2 of 3 possible outcomes...

  5. Kinetics of intramolecular chemical exchange by initial growth rates of spin saturation transfer difference experiments (SSTD NMR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quirós, M Teresa; Angulo, Jesús; Muñoz, María Paz

    2015-06-25

    We report here the Initial Growth Rates SSTD NMR method, as a new powerful tool to obtain the kinetic parameters of intramolecular chemical exchange in challenging small organic and organometallic molecules.

  6. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Ehimare OMANKHANLEN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study is on the effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth. Its main objective is to find the effect of inflation and exchange rate and the bidirectional influences between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. A thirty year period was studied. A linear regression analysis was used on the thirty year data to determine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, FDI inflows and economic growth. The study reveals that FDI follow economic growth occasioned by trade openness which saw the entry of some major companies especially the telecommunication companies, while Inflation has no effect on FDI. However exchange rate has effect on FDI.

  7. High-frequency data and the effectiveness of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Zeman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The boom of information technology in recent years significantly influenced the development of the financial markets. Financial markets have become accessible to the public, and increased demand for financial instruments is inevitably reflected in the advanced menu of securities dealers who currently offer a wide variety of investment in the underlying assets and through financial leverage allows investors to profit from tiny price changes of the underlying asset. Shortening of trading period and increasing the frequency of the trades clearly contributes to the growth of profits of securities dealers. The question remains whether this trading method offers the advantage to the investor himself, and whether the investor is able to take advantage of potential market inefficiencies to achieve above-average profits in the short term period. Therefore, this paper analyzes the behaviour of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD within a day, and through statistical tests examining the validity of the random walk hypothesis for the 5-minute, hourly, 4-hourly and daily changes in the spot exchange rate of the currency pair EUR/USD.

  8. Optimal Allocation of Heat Exchanger Inventory Associated with Fixed Power Output or Fixed Heat Transfer Rate Input

    OpenAIRE

    COSTEA M.; Petrescu, S; K. Le Saos; Michel Feidt

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to determine the optimal distribution of the heat transfer surface area or conductance among the Stirling engine heat exchangers when the minimum of the total heat transfer surface area of the heat exchangers is sought. The optimization procedure must fulfill one of the following constraints: (1) fixed power output of the engine, (2) fixed heat transfer rate available at the source, or (3) fixed power output and heat transfer rate at the source. Internal and exter...

  9. Real Exchange Rate Misalignment in the cfa franc zone after the cfa franc devaluation of January 1994

    OpenAIRE

    Kuikeu, Oscar

    2013-01-01

    In cfa franc zone, the exchange rate was devalued, in January 1994, in order to deal with the major macroeconomic imbalances that have affected the members during the 1980 decade. Thus, the aim of this paper is to assess the degree of over/undervaluation (namely real exchange rate misalignment) of the currency in the cfa franc zone since the cfa franc devaluation of January 1994.

  10. Eloquence is The Key – the Impact of Monetary Policy Speeches on Exchange Rate Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adrian Cantemir Călin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available During the last years the monetary policy initiatives of the main central banks have been profoundly influenced by quantitative easing (QE. Blessing, curse, effective instruments or a simple fad, these unconventional measures have occupied the center stage of academic and public attention. In this context, this paper focuses on a wide set of public speeches delivered by officials belonging to the most relevant central banks. These statements cover a large pallet of topics including areas such as QE, tapering, financial stability, unemployment or interest rates. The aim of this study is to investigate the impact that these speeches have on the volatility of exchange rates. For this purpose, the methodology relies on an econometric event study that incorporates three volatility models and intraday five-minute frequencies. The results indicate the fact that public statements have a clear, evident, significant and robust impact on the observed assets.

  11. Saturation-recovery metabolic‐exchange rate imaging with hyperpolarized [1‐13C] pyruvate using spectral‐spatial excitation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schulte, Rolf F.; Sperl, Jonathan I.; Weidl, Eliane

    2013-01-01

    ‐recovery” scheme with the detected signal content being determined by forward conversion of the available pyruvate. In case of repetitive excitations, the polarization is preserved using smaller flip angles for pyruvate. Metabolic exchange rates are determined spatially resolved from the metabolite images using...... a simplified two‐site exchange model. This novel contrast is an important step toward more quantitative metabolic imaging. Goal of this work was to derive, analyze, and implement this “saturation‐recovery metabolic exchange rate imaging” and demonstrate its capabilities in four rats bearing subcutaneous tumors...

  12. The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serdar Ongan

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the effects of real exchange rates and income on inbound tourism demand (tourist arrivals from Germany, France, the UK, the Netherlands, Italy, Spain, and Sweden to the USA over the period 1996Q3–2015Q1. To achieve this aim, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP for Restaurants and Hotels was used for the first time—instead of using the general Consumer Price Index (CPI—to transform the nominal exchange rate into the real exchange rate as an independent variable in tourism demand analysis models. Panel co-integration analysis under the cross-sectional dependence (CD test and common correlated effects (CCE approach was applied. Empirical results show that tourists visiting the USA are more sensitive to changes in the real exchange rate than changes in GDP. While French tourists respond highly to the GDP, British tourists respond highly to the real exchange rate. It should also be noted that the UK, having the highest responsiveness to the real exchange rate, is a country outside the Eurozone and also intends to leave the European Union.

  13. Dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Sun, Xinxin; Ge, Jintian

    2017-05-01

    This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and market anxiety during the period from January 5, 1998 to April 18, 2016. A quantitative technique of multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) is used to explore the multifractal features of the cross-correlations between USD/JPY, AUD/JPY exchange rates and the market anxiety gauge VIX. The investigation shows that the causal relationship between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are bidirectional in general, and the cross-correlations between the two sets of time series are multifractal. Strong evidence suggests that the cross-correlation exponents tend to exhibit different volatility patterns in response to diverse external shocks such as financial distress and widening in interest rate spread, suggesting that the cross-correlated behavior between Japanese Yen exchange rates and VIX are susceptible to economic uncertainties and risks. In addition, the performances of two market anxiety gauges, the VIX and the TED spread, are compared and the sources of multifractality are also traced. Thus, this paper contributes to the literature by shedding light on the unique driving forces of the Yen exchange rate fluctuations in the international foreign exchange market.

  14. Is the surface oxygen exchange rate linked to bulk ion diffusivity in mixed conducting Ruddlesden-Popper phases?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomkiewicz, Alex C; Tamimi, Mazin A; Huq, Ashfia; McIntosh, Steven

    2015-01-01

    The possible link between oxygen surface exchange rate and bulk oxygen anion diffusivity in mixed ionic and electronic conducting oxides is a topic of great interest and debate. While a large body of experimental evidence and theoretical analyses support a link, observed differences between bulk and surface composition of these materials are hard to reconcile with this observation. This is further compounded by potential problems with simultaneous measurement of both parameters. Here we utilize separate techniques, in situ neutron diffraction and pulsed isotopic surface exchange, to examine bulk ion mobility and surface oxygen exchange rates of three Ruddlesden-Popper phases, general form A(n-1)A(2)'B(n)O(3n+1), A(n-1)A(2)'B(n)X(3n+1); LaSrCo(0.5)Fe(0.5)O(4-δ) (n = 1), La(0.3)Sr(2.7)CoFeO(7-δ) (n = 2) and LaSr3Co(1.5)Fe(1.5)O(10-δ) (n = 3). These measurements are complemented by surface composition determination via high sensitivity-low energy ion scattering. We observe a correlation between bulk ion mobility and surface exchange rate between materials. The surface exchange rates vary by more than one order of magnitude with high anion mobility in the bulk of an oxygen vacancy-rich n = 2 Ruddlesden-Popper material correlating with rapid oxygen exchange. This is in contrast with the similar surface exchange rates which we may expect due to similar surface compositions across all three samples. We conclude that experimental limitations lead to inherent convolution of surface and bulk rates, and that surface exchange steps are not likely to be rate limiting in oxygen incorporation.

  15. Testing of currency substitution effect on exchange rate volatility in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Predrag

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Despite numerous different definitions existing in the literature, currency substitution is generally understood as a phenomenon when domestic residents prefer to use foreign currency rather than domestic currency. The main reasons for such phenomenon include high and volatile inflation, strong depreciation of national currency and high interest rate differential in favour of foreign currency. Currency substitution, as a monetary phenomenon, is widely spread in Latin American, Eastern European and some Asian countries. This paper is dedicated to the influence of currency substitution on exchange rate volatility in Serbia. The research included testing of three hypotheses: (i currency substitution positively affects depreciation rate volatility, (ii depreciation rate volatility has stronger responses to the past negative than to the past positive depreciation shocks, and (iii currency substitution positively affects expected depreciation rate. The analysis was implemented for the period 2002:m1-2015:m12 (2004:m1- 2015:m12, applying modified EGARCH-M model. Based on the obtained results, all three hypotheses have been supremely rejected regardless of the manner of quantification of currency substitution.

  16. Transfer Rate Edited experiment for the selective detection of Chemical Exchange via Saturation Transfer (TRE-CEST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, Joshua I; Xia, Ding; Regatte, Ravinder R; Jerschow, Alexej

    2015-07-01

    Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST) magnetic resonance experiments have become valuable tools in magnetic resonance for the detection of low concentration solutes with far greater sensitivity than direct detection methods. Accurate measures of rates of chemical exchange provided by CEST are of particular interest to biomedical imaging communities where variations in chemical exchange can be related to subtle variations in biomarker concentration, temperature and pH within tissues using MRI. Despite their name, however, traditional CEST methods are not truly selective for chemical exchange and instead detect all forms of magnetization transfer including through-space NOE. This ambiguity crowds CEST spectra and greatly complicates subsequent data analysis. We have developed a Transfer Rate Edited CEST experiment (TRE-CEST) that uses two different types of solute labeling in order to selectively amplify signals of rapidly exchanging proton species while simultaneously suppressing 'slower' NOE-dominated magnetization transfer processes. This approach is demonstrated in the context of both NMR and MRI, where it is used to detect the labile amide protons of proteins undergoing chemical exchange (at rates⩾30s(-1)) while simultaneously eliminating signals originating from slower (∼5s(-1)) NOE-mediated magnetization transfer processes. TRE-CEST greatly expands the utility of CEST experiments in complex systems, and in-vivo, in particular, where it is expected to improve the quantification of chemical exchange and magnetization transfer rates while enabling new forms of imaging contrast. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Chromatography of proteins on charge-variant ion exchangers and implications for optimizing protein uptake rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langford, John F; Xu, Xuankuo; Yao, Yan; Maloney, Sean F; Lenhoff, Abraham M

    2007-09-07

    Intraparticle transport of proteins usually represents the principal resistance controlling their uptake in preparative separations. In ion-exchange chromatography two limiting models are commonly used to describe such uptake: pore diffusion, in which only free protein in the pore lumen contributes to transport, and homogeneous diffusion, in which the transport flux is determined by the gradient in the total protein concentration, free or adsorbed. Several studies have noted a transition from pore to homogeneous diffusion with increasing ionic strength in some systems, and here we investigate the mechanistic basis for this transition. The studies were performed on a set of custom-synthesized methacrylate-based strong cation exchangers differing in ligand density into which uptake of two proteins was examined using confocal microscopy and frontal loading experiments. We find that the transition in uptake mechanism occurs in all cases studied, and generally coincides with an optimum in the dynamic binding capacity at moderately high flow rates. The transition appears to occur when protein-surface attraction is weakened sufficiently, and this is correlated with the isocratic retention factor k' for the system of interest: the transition occurs in the vicinity of k' approximately 3000. This result, which may indicate that adsorption is sufficiently weak to allow the protein to diffuse along or near the surface, provides a predictive basis for optimizing preparative separations using only isocratic retention data.

  18. The impact of currency clause and exchange rate on Serbian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popov Đorđe

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available In nineties Serbia survived the disintegration of the former Yugoslavia, intense UN sanctions, and 1999 78 days of bombing by NATO. This has resulted in a drop in production and hyperinflation. The confidence in the national currency the dinar has been lost. In order to do business in Serbia returned to normal framework the Law on Foreign Exchange imposed the possibility of nomination the loans in foreign currencies. This prompted the business, but it meant a de facto legalization of dual currency system. The logical consequence was the high degree of dollarization. It is important to mention that the dual currency system limited the possibilities of monetary policy of the National Bank of Serbia. Dollarization after the first positive results showed their expected bad sides. Appreciation of the dinar was one of the consequences. The trade deficit and foreign debt grew. Due to the appreciation production rate remained at 40% of its 1989 level, and unemployment has risen to 27%. The benefit of the appreciation had only importers and foreign-owned banks. They take out the capital abroad. Therefore, it is necessary to make changes to the Foreign Exchange Law and abolish foreign currency clause at least for a new loans.

  19. Effects of Intervention in the Spot Currency Market on the BRL/USD Exchange Rate from 1999 to 2008: an Event Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roberto Meurer

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available This study analyses interventions in the Brazilian spot foreign exchange market from 1999 to 2008 and their effects on the R$/US$ exchange rate, using an event study approach. It aims to verify if the foreign exchange interventions have any significant impact on the exchange rate behavior. The period was divided according to a MS-VAR model and analyzed with different criterions. The results indicate that prolonged foreign exchange intervention have a greater effect on the exchange rate behavior, in comparison to short time intervention episodes. The results also point to the existence of quickly dissipating effects on the rate behavior. The creation of a new criterion, based on the analysis of exchange-rate acceleration, shows that the exchange rate is mainly prone to accelerate on leaning with the wind purchase intervention episodes.

  20. Exchange rate effect on stock returns in the East European emerging markets: A quantile regression approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Živkov Dejan

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates relationship between returns of stock prices and exchange rate changes in four East European emerging markets (Serbia, Poland, Hungary and Czech Republic using weekly data from January 2003 to June 2013. Two theories explain the connection in the economic literature - flow-oriented and portfolio-balance models, without a finite and conclusive answer on which one is predominant. Considering our relatively large sample period which also includes world crisis outbreak, the used empirical data have been compromised by structural breaks and heterogeneous unconditional distribution. To avoid parameter bias and wrong conclusions, authors used four auto-regressive distributed lag ADL(2,2 models assessed with quantile regression method, robust to non-normality problems. The results indicate that relationship between these variables is in accordance with portfolio-balance models in three out of four analyzed countries.

  1. The macroeconomic deviation effects of the actual exchange rate from the equilibrium level of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Shevchuk

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available By means of VAR and 2SLS assessments in the article researches the influence of the RER deviations from the equilibrium signification received through the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The author proved that understated RER worsens the GDP dynamics and accelerates the inflation simultaneously restricting the export and import demand. The results obtained testify to the benefit of hryvnia exchange rate growth as a means of dynamic acceleration of the economic growth in the low-inflation environment. It’s appropriate to neutralize possible balance deterioration of the trade balance is with the use of nonprice factors like reduction of the budget deficit and limitation of the money stock offers.

  2. An empirical analysis of Singapore’s monetary and exchange rate policies in the 1990s

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R.C. MAYSAMI

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available The economy of Singapore has remained relatively unscathed from the Asian currency crisis of 1997 and 1998 which has severely crippled the markets of Hong Kong, Indonesia, and Malaysia. The Monetary Authority of Singapore, which has overseen the country's financial development since the 1960s, has maintained sound monetary policy which has saved the economy from ruin. The government, unlike those of other countries, has also regulated real estate loans and land development and has strengthened its basic services of telecommunications and transport. The present work seeks to re-examine the conflict between monetary stability and exchange rate objectives. The authors seek to find out which policy goal the Monetary Authority of Singapore has been and should be more interested in.

  3. Two-component mixture model: Application to palm oil and exchange rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2014-12-01

    Palm oil is a seed crop which is widely adopt for food and non-food products such as cookie, vegetable oil, cosmetics, household products and others. Palm oil is majority growth in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the demand for palm oil is getting growth and rapidly running out over the years. This phenomenal cause illegal logging of trees and destroy the natural habitat. Hence, the present paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and palm oil price in Malaysia by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation via Newton-Raphson algorithm to fit a two components mixture model. Besides, this paper proposes a mixture of normal distribution to accommodate with asymmetry characteristics and platykurtic time series data.

  4. Production of giant gourami Osphronemus goramy Lac. juvenile with different rate of water exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatag Budiardi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTGiant gourami Osphronemus goramy Lac. is one of the most important fresh water fish commodities with increasing production level every year. Water quality management through a proper water exchange both in quantity and quality can be one of the alternatives to support the elevating production. This research was conducted from July to August 2010 at the Aquaculture Production Technology and Management Laboratory, Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Bogor Agricultural University. The juvenile used was 0.84±0.011 cm in length and 0.017±0.001 cm in weight which reared in nine units of aquaria with a size of 60×29×33 cm3. Silk worm was used as the feed and provided daily at satiation. Water exchange was performed twice a day at a level depending on the treatment, namely 75% (50% at morning and 25% at evening, 100% (50% at morning and evening and 125% (75% at morning and 50% at evening of total water volume. Water exchange at 75%, 100%, and 125%/day resulted in survival rates of 94.11±0.63%; 91.89±2.02%; and 93.89±0.75%; specific growth rates of 7.43±0.15%, 8.58±0.24%, and 9.97±0.18%. Growth rate in length of 1.06±0.06 cm, 1.33±0.04 cm, and 1.55±0.01 cm; coefficient of variation in length of 11.31±1.43%, 9.35±1.46%, and 6.90±2.30%; feed efficiency of 12.47±0.30%, 14.32±1.05%, and 19.67±0.54%. The financial benefits resulted of the process were worth of IDR.351,903.00; IDR.402,302.00; and IDR.464,715.00; whereas R/C ratio of 1.71; 1.80; dan 1.90; BEP of 1,845 unit, 1,645 unit, and 1,517 unit; payback period (PP of 0.97 years, 0.85 years, and 0.74 years; and the cost production as much as IDR.79.90; IDR.82.70; and IDR.82.90/individual, respectively. The treatments were significantly different on several parameters, such as specific growth rate, length of growth rate, feed efficiency at p<0.05. The results of this experiment showed that 125% daily water exchange improved the production

  5. Interactions between the Exchange Rates and the Differential of the Stock Returns between Romania and US during the Global Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Razvan STEFANESCU

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available The relation between the foreign exchange markets and the stock markets is still a controversial subject in the specialized literature. Recent studies revealed the changes that occur in this relation during the financial crisis. In this paper we approach the interactions between the exchange rates and the differentials of the stock returns between Romania and the US in the period of the global crisis. We find some significant differences in this relations during the main stages of the crisis.

  6. Short-term and long-term effects of low total pressure on gas exchange rates of spinach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwabuchi, K.; Kurata, K.

    In this study, spinach plants were grown under atmospheric and low pressure conditions with constant O2 and CO2 partial pressures, and the effects of low total pressure on gas exchange rates were investigated. CO2 assimilation and transpiration rates of spinach grown under atmospheric pressure increased after short-term exposure to low total pressure due to the enhancement of leaf conductance. However, gas exchange rates of plants grown at 25 kPa total pressure were not greater than those grown at atmospheric pressure. Stomatal pore length and width were significantly smaller in leaves grown at low total pressure. This result suggested that gas exchange rates of plants grown under low total pressure were not stimulated even with the enhancement of gas diffusion because the stomatal size and stomatal aperture decreased.

  7. IMPACT OF MARKET-DETERMINED EXCHANGE RATES ON RICE PRODUCTION AND IMPORT IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyu Aishat Ammani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Rice is an economically important food security crop, cultivated in almost all of Nigeria’s 36 States. Nigeria spends more than 356 billion naira (2.24 billion US dollars annually on rice import. This paper set out to analyze the trend in rice production, productivity, import, value of import and consumption that follows the adoption of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP in Nigeria, with emphasis on the effects of exchange rate (ER deregulation on domestic rice production and rice imports over the period 1986-2010. Relevant time series data were collected and used. A semi-log growth rate model and 2simple linear regression models were developed and estimated. Highlights of the findings include (i accelerated rate of growth in rice production (Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR 2.2%; Cumulative Growth Rate (CGR 2.2%; rice hectarage (IGR 3.7%; CGR 3.8%; rice importation (IGR 8.5%; CGR8.9%; expenditure on rice importation (IGR 10.6%; CGR 11.2% and rice consumption (IGR 3.4%; CGR 3.5% alongside a significant deceleration in rice yield (IGR -1.4%; CGR -201.4% (ii The observed significant increase in domestic rice production cannot be confidently attributed to ER deregulation alone because it does not lead to a decrease in rice importation into Nigeria. (iii The significant increase in domestic rice importation as observed contradicts a priori expectation that ER deregulation will lead to significant decrease in rice importation. The study concluded that free market approach alone cannot stimulate local agricultural production in countries where farmers producing under low-technology-agriculture are put in direct competition with farmers from advancedtechnology-agriculture; hence governments need to restrict importation to protect local producers.

  8. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates During Currency Crises : The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijffinger, S.C.W.; Goderis, B.V.G.

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less effective in

  9. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates during Currency Crises; The Role of Debt, Institutions and Financial Openness

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S.C.W. Eijffinger (Sylvester); B. Goderis

    2007-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate during currency crises. Using data for a number of crisis episodes between 1986 and 2004, we find strong evidence that raising the interest rate: (i) has larger adverse balance sheet effects and is therefore less

  10. The National Bank of Ukraine Communication Strategy Optimization within the Framework of Impact on Exchange Rate Expectations of Economic Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roksolana Holub

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. Communication enables influence of the volatility of financial markets, improvement of the predictability of monetary policy, and helps to achieve macroeconomic objectives. Nevertheless, as of today, consensus on the issue into what the optimal strategy of the central bank communication is has not been reached, either in Ukraine, nor in developed countries yet. Considering the abovementioned, the methodical approaches to improve the central bank’s communication strategies, based on the use of its verbal interventions in the context of smoothing out excessive cyclical volatility of exchange rates of the national currency, are determined in this article. It is suggested to consider the growth of the factor “information signal/information noise” as a criterion of the central bank’s optimal communication strategy. It is proved that the monetary regulator’s main task should be the continual provision of information concerning a fundamentally justified level of the exchange rate and the level of deviation of the actual rate of the national currency from its fundamental-equilibrium level, as of a given time, to the national foreign exchange market participants. The methodological approach to the improvement of information support of forecasting fundamentally specified value of the national currency is outlined.

  11. Nonlinear mechanisms of the exchange rate pass-through: a Phillips curve model with threshold for Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnildo da Silva Correa

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the presence of nonlinear mechanisms of pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation in Brazil. In particular, it estimates a Phillips curve with a threshold for the pass-through. The paper examines whether the short-run magnitude of the pass-through is affected by the business cycle, direction and magnitude of exchange rate changes, and exchange rate volatility. The results indicate that the short-run pass-through is higher when the economy is growing faster, when the exchange rate depreciates above some threshold and when exchange rate volatility is lower.Este trabalho investiga a presença de mecanismos não-lineares de repasse cambial para a inflação no Brasil. Em particular, estima-se uma curva de Phillips com limiar (threshold para o repasse cambial. O artigo examina se a magnitude de curto prazo do repasse é afetada pelo ciclo econômico, pela direção e magnitude da variação cambial e pela volatilidade da taxa de câmbio. Os resultados indicam que o repasse de curto prazo é maior quando a economia está em expansão, quando a taxa de câmbio se deprecia acima de certo valor e quando a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio é menor.

  12. Exchange Rate as a Determinant of Foreign Direct Investment: Does it Really Matter? Theoretical Aspects, Literature Review and Applied Proposal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isabel Cristina Ruiz

    2005-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper re-examines the role of exchange rates as determinant of FDI. It extends the analysis to include the issue of how exchange rates determine the decision of invest in one country depending on whether the firm is deciding to invest on the country to service the local market or to invest on the country in order to re-export. This paper offers a broad literature review of the state of the empirical research in order to draw conclusions of the real importance of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI. Details of FDI current behavior in Latin American are described and I propose a model of FDI to be applied for these countries. Data sources are given.

  13. Impact of Exchange Rate Movements, Global Economic Activity, and the BDI Volatility on Loaded Port Cargo Throughput in South Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effects of exchange rate movements, global economic activity, and the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI on South Korea's loaded port cargo throughput, based on monthly data for the period from January 2000 to October 2014. The results indicate that the BDI volatility has a negative effect on the loaded cargo throughput, while increases in the nominal exchange rate and in global economy activity have a positive effect. In addition, the error correction model results show that the error correction term is statistically significant with the negative sign.

  14. What determines the sensitivity of the real exchange rate in Colombia to a terms of trade shock?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Parra-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Mahadeva, Lavan

    2012-01-01

    We show that the sensitivity of the real exchange rate to terms of trade shocks is greater the lower the elasticity of final and derived demand between domestic and imported items. We develop a novel Kalman filter-based method to estimate these key parameters for Colombia, taking account of prefe......We show that the sensitivity of the real exchange rate to terms of trade shocks is greater the lower the elasticity of final and derived demand between domestic and imported items. We develop a novel Kalman filter-based method to estimate these key parameters for Colombia, taking account...

  15. Analysis of Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Causal Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for Selected Emerging Market Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veli YILANCI

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the symmetric and the asymmetric nonlinear causal relationship between exchange rates and stock prices in BRICS and Turkey. To this end, the Mackey-Glass model allowing to test the symmetric and asymmetric nonlinear causality by identifying the types of feedbacks of the related variables has been employed. While the results of the symmetric nonlinear causality test present little evidence for the relationship, the asymmetric counterpart of the test indicates strong evidence for the causal relationship. As a result, these findings imply the existence of the noisy tradings and speculative behaviours in both exchange rate and stock markets.

  16. NMR Analysis of Amide Hydrogen Exchange Rates in a Pentapeptide-Repeat Protein from A. thaliana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Shenyuan; Ni, Shuisong; Kennedy, Michael A

    2017-05-23

    At2g44920 from Arabidopsis thaliana is a pentapeptide-repeat protein (PRP) composed of 25 repeats capped by N- and C-terminal α-helices. PRP structures are dominated by four-sided right-handed β-helices typically consisting of mixtures of type II and type IV β-turns. PRPs adopt repeated five-residue (Rfr) folds with an Rfr consensus sequence (STAV)(D/N)(L/F)(S/T/R)(X). Unlike other PRPs, At2g44920 consists exclusively of type II β-turns. At2g44920 is predicted to be located in the thylakoid lumen although its biochemical function remains unknown. Given its unusual structure, we investigated the biophysical properties of At2g44920 as a representative of the β-helix family to determine if it had exceptional global stability, backbone dynamics, or amide hydrogen exchange rates. Circular dichroism measurements yielded a melting point of 62.8°C, indicating unexceptional global thermal stability. Nuclear spin relaxation measurements indicated that the Rfr-fold core was rigid with order parameters ranging from 0.7 to 0.9. At2g44920 exhibited a striking range of amide hydrogen exchange rates spanning 10 orders of magnitude, with lifetimes ranging from minutes to several months. A weak correlation was found among hydrogen exchange rates, hydrogen bonding energies, and amino acid solvent-accessible areas. Analysis of contributions from fast (approximately picosecond to nanosecond) backbone dynamics to amide hydrogen exchange rates revealed that the average order parameter of amides undergoing fast exchange was significantly smaller compared to those undergoing slow exchange. Importantly, the activation energies for amide hydrogen exchange were found to be generally higher for the slowest exchanging amides in the central Rfr coil and decreased toward the terminal coils. This could be explained by assuming that the concerted motions of two preceding or following coils required for hydrogen bond disruption and amide hydrogen exchange have a higher activation energy

  17. Decomposition into Tradables and Nontradables and the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP Hypothesis of the Real Won-dollar Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deockhyun Ryu

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to test the purchasing power parity (PPP hypothesis using the won-dollar real exchange rate and analyze the effect of the decomposition into tradables and non-tradables on the change of the won-dollar real exchange rate. This paper decomposes the CPI-based real exchange rate into two parts according to Engel (1999; one is the relative price of traded goods between the countries, the other is a component that is a weighted difference of the relative price of nontraded-to traded-goods prices in each country. We construct this by comparing the component subsection weights in CPI. The empirical analysis of this paper consists of two parts as follows. First, we conducted a traditional time series analyses of the real exchange rate, tradable and non-tradable parts respectively, thereby testing the PPP hypothesis and other important hypotheses. Secondly, this paper conducted a Mean Squared Error (MSE analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of tradable and non-tradable parts to the change of real exchange rate. From the time series analysis, it is not guaranteed that the PPP hyThe purpose of this paper is to test the purchasing power parity (PPP hypothesis using the won-dollar real exchange rate and analyze the effect of the decomposition into tradables and non-tradables on the change of the won-dollar real exchange rate. This paper decomposes the CPI-based real exchange rate into two parts according to Engel (1999; one is the relative price of traded goods between the countries, the other is a component that is a weighted difference of the relative price of nontraded-to traded-goods prices in each country. We construct this by comparing the component subsection weights in CPI. The empirical analysis of this paper consists of two parts as follows. First, we conducted a traditional time series analyses of the real exchange rate, tradable and non-tradable parts respectively, thereby testing the PPP hypothesis and other

  18. The Prediction of Exchange Rates with the Use of Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving-Average Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Spiesová

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Currency market is recently the largest world market during the existence of which there have been many theories regarding the prediction of the development of exchange rates based on macroeconomic, microeconomic, statistic and other models. The aim of this paper is to identify the adequate model for the prediction of non-stationary time series of exchange rates and then use this model to predict the trend of the development of European currencies against Euro. The uniqueness of this paper is in the fact that there are many expert studies dealing with the prediction of the currency pairs rates of the American dollar with other currency but there is only a limited number of scientific studies concerned with the long-term prediction of European currencies with the help of the integrated ARMA models even though the development of exchange rates has a crucial impact on all levels of economy and its prediction is an important indicator for individual countries, banks, companies and businessmen as well as for investors. The results of this study confirm that to predict the conditional variance and then to estimate the future values of exchange rates, it is adequate to use the ARIMA (1,1,1 model without constant, or ARIMA [(1,7,1,(1,7] model, where in the long-term, the square root of the conditional variance inclines towards stable value.

  19. Predicting residential air exchange rates from questionnaires and meteorology: model evaluation in central North Carolina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breen, Michael S; Breen, Miyuki; Williams, Ronald W; Schultz, Bradley D

    2010-12-15

    A critical aspect of air pollution exposure models is the estimation of the air exchange rate (AER) of individual homes, where people spend most of their time. The AER, which is the airflow into and out of a building, is a primary mechanism for entry of outdoor air pollutants and removal of indoor source emissions. The mechanistic Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) AER model was linked to a leakage area model to predict AER from questionnaires and meteorology. The LBL model was also extended to include natural ventilation (LBLX). Using literature-reported parameter values, AER predictions from LBL and LBLX models were compared to data from 642 daily AER measurements across 31 detached homes in central North Carolina, with corresponding questionnaires and meteorological observations. Data was collected on seven consecutive days during each of four consecutive seasons. For the individual model-predicted and measured AER, the median absolute difference was 43% (0.17 h(-1)) and 40% (0.17 h(-1)) for the LBL and LBLX models, respectively. Additionally, a literature-reported empirical scale factor (SF) AER model was evaluated, which showed a median absolute difference of 50% (0.25 h(-1)). The capability of the LBL, LBLX, and SF models could help reduce the AER uncertainty in air pollution exposure models used to develop exposure metrics for health studies.

  20. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Falat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  1. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Turkey’s Agricultural Foreign Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Güngör Karakaş

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER and its volatility (REERV on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade was investigated. 25importantcountries in agricultural trade of Turkey and 1990-2012 periods were examined, and panel data analysis was used in this research. IGARCH model was applied to obtain for the REERV. Influence of the REER and REERV on Turkey's agricultural trade was analyzed whit FMOLS model both individual country and groups panel. According to the results of FMOLS model; It was determined that Turkey agricultural import (7.61% and export (2.24% were increased when the REER was risen about 1%. The agricultural import was decreased 18.83% in case the REERV was increased 1%. On the other hand, when the REERV was increased around 1%, there was no significantly relationship between agricultural export and REERV. As a result, it can be stated that REER and REERV were caused an imbalance on Turkey's agricultural foreign trade. Agricultural producers and industrialists are often adversely affected by the REERV. For these reasons, it is important to take protective measures for them.

  2. Da obiettivi monetari a obiettivi di cambio. (From monetary to exchange rate targets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.J. ARTIS

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Questo documento è stato presentato in occasione del quarto Seminario Internazionale sui diritti economici e monetaria dell'Unione Europea, tenutosi a Copenaghen nel marzo del 1981. L'autore prende le questioni teoriche nell'ambito dell'analisi sia statica che dinamica. Egli sostiene, sulla base del criterio di minimizzare la varianza dei prezzi intorno loro valore nominale, che un obiettivo di cambio supera un obiettivo monetario nella maggior parte dei tipi immaginabili di disturbi in un'analisi statica.This paper was presented at the Fourth International Seminar on European Economic and Monetary Union, held in Copenhagen in March of 1981. The author takes up the theoretical issues in the framework of both static and dynamic analysis. He argues, on the basis of the criterion of minimising the variance of prices around their target value, that an exchange-rate target outperforms a monetary target under most conceivable types of disturbances in a static analysis. JEL: E24, F36

  3. Intelligent Soft Computing on Forex: Exchange Rates Forecasting with Hybrid Radial Basis Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falat, Lukas; Marcek, Dusan; Durisova, Maria

    2016-01-01

    This paper deals with application of quantitative soft computing prediction models into financial area as reliable and accurate prediction models can be very helpful in management decision-making process. The authors suggest a new hybrid neural network which is a combination of the standard RBF neural network, a genetic algorithm, and a moving average. The moving average is supposed to enhance the outputs of the network using the error part of the original neural network. Authors test the suggested model on high-frequency time series data of USD/CAD and examine the ability to forecast exchange rate values for the horizon of one day. To determine the forecasting efficiency, they perform a comparative statistical out-of-sample analysis of the tested model with autoregressive models and the standard neural network. They also incorporate genetic algorithm as an optimizing technique for adapting parameters of ANN which is then compared with standard backpropagation and backpropagation combined with K-means clustering algorithm. Finally, the authors find out that their suggested hybrid neural network is able to produce more accurate forecasts than the standard models and can be helpful in eliminating the risk of making the bad decision in decision-making process.

  4. THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT AND THE FIXED EXCHANGE RATE. ADJUSTING MECHANISMS AND MODELS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HATEGAN D.B. Anca

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of the paper is to explain what measures can be taken in order to fix the trade deficit, and the pressure that is upon a country by imposing such measures. The international and the national supply and demand conditions change rapidly, and if a country doesn’t succeed in keeping a tight control over its deficit, a lot of factors will affect its wellbeing. In order to reduce the external trade deficit, the government needs to resort to several techniques. The desired result is to have a balanced current account, and therefore, the government is free to use measures such as fixing its exchange rate, reducing government spending etc. We have shown that all these measures will have a certain impact upon an economy, by allowing its exports to thrive and eliminate the danger from excessive imports, or vice-versa. The main conclusion our paper is that government intervention is allowed in order to maintain the balance of the current account.

  5. Exchange rate pass-through and the frequency of price adjustment across different inflation regimes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrović Pavle

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores the link between the inflationary environment and the size of the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into domestic prices, as inflation descends from an extreme, second highest and second longest hyperinflation in the 20th century, to high and then moderate inflation in Serbia. We found that ERPT decreases with a decline in the inflation level, variability and persistence, thus supplementing findings previously acquired in panel studies across countries. Our findings can be explained by surging empirical evidence on state contingent behavior of pricing, which indicates a sharp increase in the frequency of price adjustment as one moves from moderate, via high to hyperinflation, suggesting that the degree of price rigidities is a key determinant of the size and speed of ERPT. ERPT estimates are embedded in careful analysis of inflation episodes in Serbia, showing that hyper and high inflation episodes subscribe to the same, fiscal explanation, as opposed to the moderate inflation ones, where supply and demand shocks have been the main inflation drivers.

  6. Numerical Exploration of Kaldorian Macrodynamics: Hopf-Neimark Bifurcations and Business Cycles with Fixed Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toichiro Asada

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We explore numerically a three-dimensional discrete-time Kaldorian macrodynamic model in an open economy with fixed exchange rates, focusing on the effects of variation of the model parameters, the speed of adjustment of the goods market α, and the degree of capital mobility β on the stability of equilibrium and on the existence of business cycles. We determine the stability region in the parameter space and find that increase of α destabilizes the equilibrium more quickly than increase of β. We determine the Hopf-Neimark bifurcation curve along which business cycles are generated, and discuss briefly the occurrence of Arnold tongues. Bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams are computed providing information on the emergence, persistence, and amplitude of the cycles and illustrating the complex dynamics involved. Examples of cycles and other attractors are presented. Finally, we discuss a two-dimensional variation of the model related to a “wealth effect,” called model 2, and show that in this case, α does not destabilize the equilibrium more quickly than β, and that a Hopf-Neimark bifurcation curve does not exist in the parameter space, therefore model 2 does not produce cycles.

  7. Air exchange rates and migration of VOCs in basements and residences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Liuliu; Batterman, Stuart; Godwin, Christopher; Rowe, Zachary; Chin, Jo-Yu

    2015-01-01

    Basements can influence indoor air quality by affecting air exchange rates (AERs) and by the presence of emission sources of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and other pollutants. We characterized VOC levels, AERs and interzonal flows between basements and occupied spaces in 74 residences in Detroit, Michigan. Flows were measured using a steady-state multi-tracer system, and 7-day VOC measurements were collected using passive samplers in both living areas and basements. A walkthrough survey/inspection was conducted in each residence. AERs in residences and basements averaged 0.51 and 1.52 h−1, respectively, and had strong and opposite seasonal trends, e.g., AERs were highest in residences during the summer, and highest in basements during the winter. Air flows from basements to occupied spaces also varied seasonally. VOC concentration distributions were right-skewed, e.g., 90th percentile benzene, toluene, naphthalene and limonene concentrations were 4.0, 19.1, 20.3 and 51.0 μg m−3, respectively; maximum concentrations were 54, 888, 1117 and 134 μg m−3. Identified VOC sources in basements included solvents, household cleaners, air fresheners, smoking, and gasoline-powered equipment. The number and type of potential VOC sources found in basements are significant and problematic, and may warrant advisories regarding the storage and use of potentially strong VOCs sources in basements. PMID:25601281

  8. Radial variations in cation exchange capacity and base saturation rate in the wood of pedunculate oak and European beech

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Herbauts, J.; Penninckx, V.; Gruber, W.; Meerts, P. [Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Laboratoire de genetique et d' ecologie vegetales, Brussels (Belgium)

    2002-10-01

    Visual observation of pedunculate oak trees and European beech trees in a mixed forest stand in the Belgian Ardennes revealed decreasing cation concentration profiles in wood. In order to determine whether these profiles are attributable to endogenous factors or to decreased availability of cations in the soil, radial profiles of water-soluble, exchangeable and total cations were investigated. Cation exchange capacity of wood was also determined. Results showed wood cation exchange capacity to decrease from pith to bark in European beech and from pith to outer heartwood in pedunculate oak. Decreasing profiles of exchangeable calcium and magnesium in peduncular oak and exchangeable calcium in European beech were found to be strongly constrained by cation exchange capacity, and thus not related to environmental change. Base cation saturation rate showed no consistent radial change in either species. It was concluded that the results did not provide convincing evidence to attribute the decrease in divalent cation concentration in pedunculate oak and European beech in this location to be due to atmospheric pollution. 42 refs., 1 tab., 4 figs.

  9. Characterization of exchange rate regimes based on scaling and correlation properties of volatility for ASEAN-5 countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniandy, Sithi V.; Uning, Rosemary

    2006-11-01

    Foreign currency exchange rate policies of ASEAN member countries have undergone tremendous changes following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. In this paper, we study the fractal and long-memory characteristics in the volatility of five ASEAN founding members’ exchange rates with respect to US dollar. The impact of exchange rate policies implemented by the ASEAN-5 countries on the currency fluctuations during pre-, mid- and post-crisis are briefly discussed. The time series considered are daily price returns, absolute returns and aggregated absolute returns, each partitioned into three segments based on the crisis regimes. These time series are then modeled using fractional Gaussian noise, fractionally integrated ARFIMA (0,d,0) and generalized Cauchy process. The first two stationary models provide the description of long-range dependence through Hurst and fractional differencing parameter, respectively. Meanwhile, the generalized Cauchy process offers independent estimation of fractal dimension and long memory exponent. In comparison, among the three models we found that the generalized Cauchy process showed greater sensitivity to transition of exchange rate regimes that were implemented by ASEAN-5 countries.

  10. Production and Trade Situation in Iran and USA and Impact of Exchange rate Volatility on the Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Salarpour

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, pistachio production and trade and influential factors on its exports in Iran and the USA are compared the the .Using the annual data from 1970 to 2011; this study aimed to analyze the effects of pistachio price and the effects of food security. Moreover, the relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export in the Iranian economy was analyzed through examining a non linear relation between the two factors. Therefore, the hypothesis validation upon nonlinearity relationship between exchange rate and pistachio export was analyzed using smooth transition autoregressive model (STAR. The results of smooth transition model (STAR show that there is a nonlinear Granger causality between exchange rate and pistachio export and vice versa. It is therefore recommended ,in order to determine the threshold level of potential benefits of pistachio exports, the existence of the nonlinear relationship between the dynamic exchange rate and pistachio exports should be considered. Furthermore, in order to maintain market share in the international level, understanding target markets of export and achieving complete information upon the position of the major competitors in the production and trade of Pistachio is essential.

  11. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater marsh ecosystems in the Florida Everglades

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparkle L. Malone; Christina L. Staudhammer; Steven F. Oberbauer; Paulo Olivas; Michael G. Ryan; Jessica L. Schedlbauer; Henry W. Loescher; Gregory Starr

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009–2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ...

  12. Estimating long-run equilibrium real exchange rates: short-lived shocks with long-lived impacts on Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zardad, Asma; Mohsin, Asma; Zaman, Khalid

    2013-12-01

    The purpose of this study is to investigate the factors that affect real exchange rate volatility for Pakistan through the co-integration and error correction model over a 30-year time period, i.e. between 1980 and 2010. The study employed the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH), generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) to estimate the changes in the volatility of real exchange rate series, while an error correction model was used to determine the short-run dynamics of the system. The study is limited to a few variables i.e., productivity differential (i.e., real GDP per capita relative to main trading partner); terms of trade; trade openness and government expenditures in order to manage robust data. The result indicates that real effective exchange rate (REER) has been volatile around its equilibrium level; while, the speed of adjustment is relatively slow. VECM results confirm long run convergence of real exchange rate towards its equilibrium level. Results from ARCH and GARCH estimation shows that real shocks volatility persists, so that shocks die out rather slowly, and lasting misalignment seems to have occurred.

  13. Monte Carlo Simulation Of The Portfolio-Balance Model Of Exchange Rates: Finite Sample Properties Of The GMM Estimator

    OpenAIRE

    Hong-Ghi Min

    2011-01-01

    Using Monte Carlo simulation of the Portfolio-balance model of the exchange rates, we report finite sample properties of the GMM estimator for testing over-identifying restrictions in the simultaneous equations model. F-form of Sargans statistic performs better than its chi-squared form while Hansens GMM statistic has the smallest bias.

  14. Asymmetric information content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return: new evidence from the post-crisis data using arma-egarch-m modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Levent, Korap

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, the volatility content of the YTL/US$ exchange rate return has been examined for the post-2001 crisis period till the early periods of 2008. Using exponential GARCH (EGARCH) methodology, estimation results indicate that volatility shocks on exchange rate return seem to be persistent so that the forecasts of the conditional variance converge to the steady state quite slowly. Besides, conditional variance of the exchange rate return reacts differently to equal magnitude negative ...

  15. Exchange rate market tensions in a small open economy during the transition to EMU : can Asian countries learn from the Portuguese experience in 1992-1995?

    OpenAIRE

    Abreu, Margarida

    1999-01-01

    This paper studies the various Portuguese escudo exchange rate crises during the period 1992-95. Were they the result of the market evaluation of the Portuguese economy fundamentals? Were they the outcome of the expected political changes? Or, to the contrary, can we suggest self-fulfilling crises? After a general introduction, the paper starts with an estimation of the exchange rate policy credibility a la Svensson and a brief description of the escudo exchange rate crises. The paper then pr...

  16. Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Employment, Exchange Rate and Oil Price: A U.S. State-Level Time Series Analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Ewing, Bradley T.; Yang, Benhua

    2011-01-01

    This paper investigates the time series properties of U.S. state-level manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment and two economy-wide variables: real effective exchange rate and real oil price. Examining the 1990 to 2005 period, cointegration tests and error-correction models reveal a long run relationship between manufacturing employment and the exchange rate in eleven states, while no evidence of this relationship between non-manufacturing employment and the exchange rate was detected....

  17. EXCHANGE RATE DIFFERENCES-THE ACCOUNTING TREATMENT AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF AN ECONOMIC ENTITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicoleta Cristina MATEI

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Currency rate differences arise when there are certain debt rights or obligations in foreign currency of an economic entity which are collected, i.e. paid for at a different course from the one displayed by the Romanian National Bank on the date of their establishment. Such differences, according to the situation, generate expenditure or revenue which affects a company's financial result and, consequently, the accountant result as well. The results registered by an economic entity presented in the Profit and Loss Account provide information about its financial performance. This performance can be influenced by the favorable or unfavorable exchange rate differences existing when an economic entity carries out transactions or has incurred foreign currency loans having a significant share in the total amount of transactions or in capitals. The present paper shows the accounting treatment of the exchange rate differences and its impact on the financial performance.

  18. Superior bit error rate and jitter due to improved switching field distribution in exchange spring magnetic recording media

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suess, D.; Fuger, M.; Abert, C.; Bruckner, F.; Vogler, C.

    2016-01-01

    We report two effects that lead to a significant reduction of the switching field distribution in exchange spring media. The first effect relies on a subtle mechanism of the interplay between exchange coupling between soft and hard layers and anisotropy that allows significant reduction of the switching field distribution in exchange spring media. This effect reduces the switching field distribution by about 30% compared to single-phase media. A second effect is that due to the improved thermal stability of exchange spring media over single-phase media, the jitter due to thermal fluctuation is significantly smaller for exchange spring media than for single-phase media. The influence of this overall improved switching field distribution on the transition jitter in granular recording and the bit error rate in bit-patterned magnetic recording is discussed. The transition jitter in granular recording for a distribution of Khard values of 3% in the hard layer, taking into account thermal fluctuations during recording, is estimated to be a = 0.78 nm, which is similar to the best reported calculated jitter in optimized heat-assisted recording media. PMID:27245287

  19. Estimate of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate and Misalignment of Chinese Yuan Vis-a-Vis US Dollar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Atabani Adi Agya

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper examines the misalignment in equilibrium real exchange rate of Chinese Yuan against US dollar. The data covered the period of 1980-2014, it used Vector Autoregressive model, the variables are not stationary at level and became stationary after first differencing and there were three co-integration vectors. The long run coefficients have expected sign except for interest rate differential and are significant at 5 percent significance level. The speed of adjustment of real exchange rate to it equilibrium indicated that the disequilibrium in the last period are corrected by 87 percent each year and highly significant. The Yuan was overvalued by 4 percent, from 1981-1990 and in1990 it was undervalue about 4 percent and move back to equilibrium, the highest overvaluation was in 1993 up to 13 percent from equilibrium value and undervalue in 1994 by 14 percent which was the highest level of undervaluation, between 1996 to 2005 the Yuan was relatively within it equilibrium and slightly over value to 3.8 percent in 2008 back to long time path in 2011 and relatively undervalue by 1-3 percent since 2012, in general the Yuan is not substantially undervalue as claims in some studies both theoretical and empirical estimation and the movement in the exchange rate are consistent with economic fundamental of China.

  20. Carbon dioxide exchange rates from short- and long-hydroperiod Everglades freshwater marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. L. Jimenez; G. Starr; C. L. Staudhammer; J. L. Schedlbauer; H. W. Loescher; Sparkle L Malone; S. F. Oberbauer

    2012-01-01

    Everglades freshwater marshes were once carbon sinks, but human-driven hydrologic changes have led to uncertainty about the current state of their carbon dynamics. To investigate the effect of hydrology on CO2 exchange, we used eddy covariance measurements for 2 years (2008-2009) in marl (short-hydroperiod) and peat (long-hydroperiod) wetlands in Everglades National...

  1. Effect of ionophores on the rate of intramolecular cation exchange in durosemiquinone ion pairs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eastman, M. P.; Bruno, G. V.; Mcguyer, C. A.; Gutierrez, A. R.; Shannon, J. M.

    1979-01-01

    The effects of the ionophores 15-crown-5 (15C5), 18-crown-6 (18C6), dibenzo-18-crown-6 (DBC) and cryptand 222 (C222) on intramolecular cation exchange in ion pairs of the sodium salt of the durosemiquinone anion in benzene solution are investigated. Electron paramagnetic resonance spectra of the 18C6 and 15C5 complexes with durosemiquinone reduced by contact with a sodium mirror show an alternating line width which indicates that the sodium ion is being exchanged between equivalent sites near the oxygens of the semiquinone with activation energies of 8.7 and 6.0 kcal/mole and Arrhenius preexponential factors of 9 x 10 to the 12th/sec and 10 to the 12th/sec, respectively. Spectra obtained for the DBC complexes show no evidence of exchange, while those of C222 indicate rapid exchange. It is also noted that the hyperfine splitting constants measured do not change over the 50-K temperature interval studied.

  2. The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Demirhan Erdal

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1 model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

  3. Adaptive predictions of the euro/złoty currency exchange rate using state space wavelet networks and forecast combinations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brdyś Mietek A.

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers the forecasting of the euro/Polish złoty (EUR/PLN spot exchange rate by applying state space wavelet network and econometric forecast combination models. Both prediction methods are applied to produce one-trading-day-ahead forecasts of the EUR/PLN exchange rate. The paper presents the general state space wavelet network and forecast combination models as well as their underlying principles. The state space wavelet network model is, in contrast to econometric forecast combinations, a non-parametric prediction technique which does not make any distributional assumptions regarding the underlying input variables. Both methods can be used as forecasting tools in portfolio investment management, asset valuation, IT security and integrated business risk intelligence in volatile market conditions.

  4. Cash Flows versus Accounting Earnings in Managing Exchange Rate Exposures: An Empirical Study of Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    Financial theory argues that companies should manage cash flows and not accounting earnings when they hedge exchange rate exposures. Still, empirical evidence shows that a number of companies choose to manage accounting earnings. This empirical study of Danish, non-financial companies finds (1......) that when hedging the majority of companies expect to add value to their company by avoiding financial distress (reduce down side risk), (2) that when hedging managing cash flows versus managing accounting earnings as a first priority splits the companies in two, (3) a lack of difference (except...... for profitability) in company characteristics between the group of companies that manage cash flows versus the group of companies that manage accounting earnings as a first priority. The decision in real business on whether to manage cash flows or accounting earnings when hedging exchange rate exposures seems...

  5. Seasonal Variations of Indoor Microbial Exposures and Their Relation to Temperature, Relative Humidity, and Air Exchange Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frankel, Mika; Bekö, Gabriel; Timm, Michael

    2012-01-01

    with temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates in Danish homes. Airborne inhalable dust was sampled in five Danish homes throughout the four seasons of 1 year (indoors, n = 127; outdoors, n = 37). Measurements included culturable fungi and bacteria, endotoxin, N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase, total...... inflammatory potential, particles (0.75 to 15 μm), temperature, relative humidity, and air exchange rates. Significant seasonal variation was found for all indoor microbial exposures, excluding endotoxin. Indoor fungi peaked in summer (median, 235 CFU/m3) and were lowest in winter (median, 26 CFU/m3). Indoor...... bacteria peaked in spring (median, 2,165 CFU/m3) and were lowest in summer (median, 240 CFU/m3). Concentrations of fungi were predominately higher outdoors than indoors, whereas bacteria, endotoxin, and inhalable dust concentrations were highest indoors. Bacteria and endotoxin correlated with the mass...

  6. Backus–Smith puzzle and the European Union: It’s not just the nominal exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Petrović

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available he goal of our research is testing of presence and background examination of Backus–Smith puzzle in the EU. The research is based on the technique of econometric analysis of panel data, i.e. on the estimation of one-way/two-way error component models and models without effects. The results of the research have shown that: (a there is serious evidence on presence of the Backus–Smith puzzle in the EU, (b its background comprises both nominal exchange rate and inflation differential, and (c empirical data rejects complete risk sharing assumption strongly and decisively, but this does not explain the Backus–Smith puzzle. The basic conclusion of our research is that nominal exchange rate movements are not the only source of Backus–Smith puzzle in the EU, as is the case in OECD members states.

  7. THE ROLE OF AQUEOUS THIN FILM EVAPORATIVE COOLING ON RATES OF ELEMENTAL MERCURY AIR-WATER EXCHANGE UNDER TEMPERATURE DISEQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS

    Science.gov (United States)

    The technical conununity has only recently addressed the role of atmospheric temperature variations on rates of air-water vapor phase toxicant exchange. The technical literature has documented that: 1) day time rates of elemental mercury vapor phase air-water exchange can exceed ...

  8. Exchange rate pass-through inflation and wage differentials in late-industrializing economies: the Mexican case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Teresa S. López

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates exchange rate pass-through inflation, and the wage bargaining process, in a developing economy in which firms' market power is largely dependent on technical progress embodied in imported intermediates and capital goods. It develops a heterodox model of income distribution, based on theoretical contributions from Latin American structuralists, labor market segmentationists and post-Keynesian writers, and it presents supportive empirical evidence from the Mexican economy.

  9. The effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade fl ows: evidence from panel data analysis and fuzzy approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert M. Kunst

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade flows by using two different approaches, the panel data analysis and fuzzy logic, and to compare the results. To a panel with the crosssection dimension of 91 pairs of EU15 countries and with time ranging from 1964 to 2003, an extended gravity model of trade is applied in order to determine theeffects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade flows of EU15 countries. The estimated impact is clearly negative, which indicates that exchange rate volatility has a negative influence on bilateral trade flows. Then, this traditional panel approach is contrasted with an alternative investigation based on fuzzy logic. The key elements of the fuzzy approach are to set fuzzy decision rules and to assignmembership functions to the fuzzy sets intuitively based on experience. Both approaches yield very similar results and fuzzy approach is recommended to be used as a complement to statistical methods.

  10. Analysis of bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF exchange rate within the scope of econophysics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deviren, Bayram; Kocakaplan, Yusuf; Keskin, Mustafa; Balcılar, Mehmet; Özdemir, Zeynel Abidin; Ersoy, Ersan

    2014-09-01

    In this study, we analyze the Turkish Lira/US Dollar (TRY/USD), Turkish Lira/Euro (TRY/EUR), Turkish Lira/Japanese Yen (TRY/JPY) and Turkish Lira/Swiss Franc (TRY/CHF) exchange rates in the global financial crisis period to detect the bubbles and crashes in the TRY by using a mathematical methodology developed by Watanabe et al. (2007). The methodology defines the bubbles and crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering an exponential fitting of the associated data. This methodology is applied to detect the bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF exchange rates from January, 1, 2005 to December, 20, 2013. In this mathematical methodology, the whole period of bubbles and crashes can be determined purely from past data, and the start of bubbles and crashes can be identified even before its bursts. In this way, the periods of bubbles and crashes in the TRY/USD, TRY/EUR, TRY/JPY and TRY/CHF are determined, and the beginning and end points of these periods are detected. The results show that the crashes in the TRY/CHF exchange rate are commonly finished earlier than in the other exchange rates; hence it is probable that the crashes in the other exchange rates would be finished soon when the crashes in the TRY/CHF exchange rate ended. We also find that the periods of crashes in the TRY/EUR exchange rate take longer time than in the other exchange rates. This information can be used in risk management and/or speculative gain. The crashes' periods in the TRY/EUR and TRY/USD exchange rates are observed to be relatively longer than in the other exchange rates.

  11. Exchange rate EUR/USD risk in investments denominated in USD in the period of the financial and economic crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the evaluation of the influence of the EUR/USD exchange rate on the yield-rate of dollar share investments from the viewpoint of the Euro investor in varying investment periods with emphasis on the period of the financial and subsequent economic crisis targeted mainly in the period 2008–2010.The outputs of the paper are realized for the following investment periods: one-year, three-year, five-year, seven-year, ten-year and fifteen-year. The supplementary investment period is the twenty-year period, which due to the small number of observations is characterized by low informative value. The share investments denominated in USD are represented by investments in the S&P 500 Total Net Return that also considers reinvestment in the period 1988–2010.The basic methodical tool of the paper is quantification of the factors that influence the yield-rate of the foreign currency investments in the reference currency of the investor. Quantification mainly attaches to the ratio of the influence of the EUR/USD exchange rate on the yield-rate of the dollar share investments from the viewpoint of the euro investor.

  12. Prediction of the heat transfer rate of a single layer wire-on-tube type heat exchanger using ANFIS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hayati, Mohsen [Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University, Tagh-E-Bostan, Kermanshah 67149 (Iran); Computational Intelligence Research Center, Razi University, Tagh-E-Bostan, Kermanshah 67149 (Iran); Rezaei, Abbas; Seifi, Majid [Electrical Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University, Tagh-E-Bostan, Kermanshah 67149 (Iran)

    2009-12-15

    In this paper, we applied an Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model for prediction of the heat transfer rate of the wire-on-tube type heat exchanger. Limited experimental data was used for training and testing ANFIS configuration with the help of hybrid learning algorithm consisting of backpropagation and least-squares estimation. The predicted values are found to be in good agreement with the actual values from the experiments with mean relative error less than 2.55%. Also, we compared the proposed ANFIS model to an ANN approach. Results show that the ANFIS model has more accuracy in comparison to ANN approach. Therefore, we can use ANFIS model to predict the performances of thermal systems in engineering applications, such as modeling heat exchangers for heat transfer analysis. (author)

  13. The Banks Rating Analysis The Differences Between The Regional Development Banks And Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks In Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dr. Irwan Ch

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to analyze the bank rating in terms of differences the financial performance between the Regional Development Banks and Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks. It is consist of capital adequacy asset quality profitability Return On Asset ROA Return on Equity ROE Net Interest Margin NIM and Liquidity Loan to Deposit Ratio. The fulfillment of capital adequacy and asset quality of the bank groups did not differed significantly while in terms of profitability and liquidity there are significant differences. The earning difference is more likely due to the Regional Development Banks sources of funds for the implementation of the Local Government Cash Holder function as the Provincial Government and District City. The difference of liquidity are showed by the performance of Regional Development Banks and the Non-Foreign Exchange Commercial Banks in lendingfinancing whereas the two groups of banks on average are still relatively low in lending.

  14. The impact of black market exchange rate on the demand for money Case of Algeria during 1980-2010 : Econometric study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali BENDOB

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to analyze the relationship between the exchange rate and the parallel circulation of money (M1 in Algeria during the period 1980-2010. For this purpose, we use the proposed especially by Pesaran et al ARDL model. (2001. the results confirm the convergence of long-term determinants of the demand for money (income, consumption price index, interest rate deposits, the parallel exchange rate. In addition, the CUSUM test and CUSUMSQ clearly show the stability of the long-term relationship during the estimation period between the parallel exchange rate and demand for the currency in Algeria. Instead, the relationship becomes unstable once we use the official exchange rate.

  15. Foreign capital and the impact of exchange rate adjustments in oil-exporting developing countries with an application to Indonesia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tadjuddin, A.

    1989-01-01

    The efficacy of exchange rate adjustments as an instrument of economic policy in developing countries has long been the subject of considerable controversy. Theoretical treatments of currency devaluation generally conclude that it improves the trade balance and stimulates economic activity. However, this traditional view has been challenged in recent years on the grounds that trade flows, including factor imports, are relatively insensitive to price and exchange rate changes, especially in developing countries. This study analyzes the effects of exchange rate changes in oil exporting developing countries which host foreign capital by using a modified model of the Krugman-Taylor (l978) and Barbone-Batiz (1987) types. It is shown that the impact of devaluation on GNP is influenced by (a) the initial state of the current account balance, (b) the elasticity of demand for non-oil exports, (c) the elasticity of demand for final good imports, (d) the foreign ownership effects, and (e) the impact of devaluation on the government revenues. Devaluation can lead to an increase in national output, but only if the elasticity effects in the non-oil export sector and in the final good imports are large enough to dominate the government revenue effect, the foreign-ownership effect in the oil sector and the impact of any initial current account deficit. The model was applied to the economy of Indonesia, an oil exporting developing country. The net effect of devaluation on national output is known to be contradictory following devaluation, thus supporting the structuralist view that devaluation has negative real effects in this country, at least in the short run. It was also found that the estimated price elasticities of non-oil imports and exports are low in the short-run. Devaluation would lead to improvement in the non-oil trade account in the long run after devaluation.

  16. Selected aspects of modelling of foreign exchange rates with neural networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Václav Mastný

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with forecasting of the high-frequency foreign exchange market with neural networks. The objective is to investigate some aspects of modelling with neural networks (impact of topology, size of training set and time horizon of the forecast on the performance of the network. The data used for the purpose of this paper contain 15-minute time series of US dollar against other major currencies, Japanese Yen, British Pound and Euro. The results show, that performance of the network in terms of correct directorial change is negatively influenced by increasing number of hidden neurons and decreasing size of training set. The performance of the network is influenced by sampling frequency.

  17. Relation between electrical percolation and rate constant for exchange of material between droplets in water in oil microemulsions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jada, A.; Lang, J.; Zana, R. (Institut Charles Sadron, Strasbourg (France))

    1989-01-12

    The rate constant k{sub e} associated with the exchange of material upon collisions between droplets in ternary water in oil microemulsions stabilized by ionic surfactants has been determined by a time-resolved fluorescence method. The electrical conductivity of the same systems has been investigated. It appears that percolative conduction occurs only in systems where k{sub e} is larger than (1-2) {times} 10{sup 9} M{sup {minus}1} s{sup {minus}1}. This result supports the hypothesis that above percolation threshold the conductivity is mainly due to the motion of counterions through water channels or fusion between droplets in droplet clusters.

  18. THE POLICY OF THE EXCHANGE RATE PROMOTED BY NATIONAL BANK OF ROMANIA AND ITS IMPLICATIONS UPON THE FINANCIAL STABILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chifane Cristina

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The more profound world economic crisis has strongly marked the evolution of the Romanian financial system. The size of current account deficit, the relatively high external financing needs and the dependence of the banks on it, the high ratio between loans in foreign currency and deposits in foreign currency made of the Romanian economy, a risky destination for investors. In these conditions, since the end of 2008 and throughout 2009, the government's economic program was focused on reducing the external deficit in both public and private sector, on minimizing the effects of recession, on avoiding a crisis of the exchange rate and on cooling the inflationary pressures.

  19. An evaluation of multiple-schedule variations to reduce high-rate requests in the picture exchange communication system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landa, Robin; Hanley, Gregory P

    2016-06-01

    Using procedures similar to those of Tiger, Hanley, and Heal (2006), we compared two multiple-schedule variations (S+/S- and S+ only) to treat high-rate requests for edible items in the Picture Exchange Communication System (PECS). Two individuals with autism participated, after they showed persistent requests for edible items after PECS training. Stimulus control was achieved only with the multiple schedule that involved presentation of a discriminative stimulus during reinforcement components and its removal during extinction components (S+ only). Discriminated requests were maintained for the 1 participant who experienced schedule thinning. © 2016 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

  20. Diurnal and seasonal variation in air exchange rates and interzonal flows measured by active tracer gas in five Danish homes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Clausen, Geo; Bekö, Gabriel; Toftum, Jørn

    2016-01-01

    We measured the air exchange rates (AER) in up to six rooms in five naturally ventilated dwellings across four seasons using active tracer gas. Night time AER was also estimated in all bedrooms based on occupant-generated CO2. Additionally, we studied the pollutant distribution across the dwellings...... and airflows between rooms. AERs changed rapidly during the day and differed between rooms. Occupant behavior (window opening) strongly influenced the AERs. AERs were highest in the summer, lowest in the winter. Interzonal airflow measurements indicated that the air within a given floor is well mixed, while...

  1. Asymmetrical long-run dependence between oil price and US dollar exchange rate-Based on structural oil shocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Jiaqi; Gu, Rongbao

    2016-08-01

    The multifractal behavior in cross-correlation between oil prices and exchange rates is examined in this paper. We use the multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis to investigate the general cross-correlations, and further show that these cross-correlations are asymmetric by multifractal asymmetric cross-correlation analysis. We recover the structural oil shocks and then use these indicators to characterize the asymmetries along with oil price trend itself. Our empirical results show that their asymmetric degrees vary significantly. The sign of oil supply shock leads to the most significant asymmetry among them.

  2. Maximal sum of metabolic exchange fluxes outperforms biomass yield as a predictor of growth rate of microorganisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zarecki, Raphy; Oberhardt, Matthew A; Yizhak, Keren; Wagner, Allon; Shtifman Segal, Ella; Freilich, Shiri; Henry, Christopher S; Gophna, Uri; Ruppin, Eytan

    2014-01-01

    Growth rate has long been considered one of the most valuable phenotypes that can be measured in cells. Aside from being highly accessible and informative in laboratory cultures, maximal growth rate is often a prime determinant of cellular fitness, and predicting phenotypes that underlie fitness is key to both understanding and manipulating life. Despite this, current methods for predicting microbial fitness typically focus on yields [e.g., predictions of biomass yield using GEnome-scale metabolic Models (GEMs)] or notably require many empirical kinetic constants or substrate uptake rates, which render these methods ineffective in cases where fitness derives most directly from growth rate. Here we present a new method for predicting cellular growth rate, termed SUMEX, which does not require any empirical variables apart from a metabolic network (i.e., a GEM) and the growth medium. SUMEX is calculated by maximizing the SUM of molar EXchange fluxes (hence SUMEX) in a genome-scale metabolic model. SUMEX successfully predicts relative microbial growth rates across species, environments, and genetic conditions, outperforming traditional cellular objectives (most notably, the convention assuming biomass maximization). The success of SUMEX suggests that the ability of a cell to catabolize substrates and produce a strong proton gradient enables fast cell growth. Easily applicable heuristics for predicting growth rate, such as what we demonstrate with SUMEX, may contribute to numerous medical and biotechnological goals, ranging from the engineering of faster-growing industrial strains, modeling of mixed ecological communities, and the inhibition of cancer growth.

  3. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Real Exchange Rate: Anecdotal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In macroeconomics theory of open economies, it is argued that an adverse fiscal imbalance results into a higher real interest rate. In turn the higher real interest rate reduces net foreign investment and that this leads to an appreciation of the domestic currency. This study is a preliminary empirical investigation of the extent to ...

  4. Optimal Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate in a Small Open Economy with Unemployment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyuk-Jae Rhee

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we consider a small open economy under the New Keynesian model with unemployment of Gali (2011a, b to discuss the design of the monetary policy. Our findings can be summarized in three parts. First, even with the existence of unemployment, the optimal policy is to minimize variance of domestic price inflation, wage inflation, and the output gap when both domestic price and wage are sticky. Second, stabilizing unemployment rate is important in reducing the welfare loss incurred by both technology and labor supply shocks. Therefore, introducing the unemployment rate as an another argument into the Taylor-rule type interest rate rule will be welfare-enhancing. Lastly, controlling CPI inflation is the best option when the policy is not allowed to respond to unemployment rate. Once the unemployment rate is controlled, however, stabilizing power of CPI inflation-based Taylor rule is diminished.

  5. Teoria e crisi della libera fluttuazione dei cambi. (The theory and crisis of free floating exchange rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TAMBORINI

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available  Dopo la fine del sistema di fede, di Bretton Woods in un regime di cambio liberamente fluttuante, e in particolare la completa politica di laissez-faire degli Stati Uniti dopo il 1980, è stata sostenuta da una letteratura vasta e influente - la cosiddetta "teoria il punto della cambio "- che ha avuto predominio quasi assoluto nel campo. Il presente lavoro è di natura teorica in primo luogo, richiamando l'attenzione sul recente cambiamento drastico di opinione per quanto riguarda l'efficienza dei mercati dei cambi, delle aspettative e speculazioni. In contrasto con la credenza precedentemente detenuta, gli agenti che anticipano il mercato sono ora accusati di inefficiente, se non il comportamento irrazionale; si dice che essere mal interpretare o violare i "dati concreti", che dovrebbero portare il mercato sul sentiero di equilibrio. Secondo l'autore, questa nuova vena è impegnativo, ma il nuovo "cattivo" deus ex machina è convincente come i suoi predecessori "buoni". Così, l'attenzione è proprio sui fattori fondamentali della dinamica dei tassi di cambio nel contesto attuale di finanza integrata Lowing the end of the Bretton Woods system faith in a freely floating exchange rate regime, and in particular the complete Laissez-faire policy of the US after 1980, was supported by a large and influential literature - the so-called "stock theory of the exchange rate" - which has had almost absolute dominance in the field. The present work is of primarily a theoretical nature, calling attention to the recent drastic change of opinion regarding the efficiency of foreign exchange markets, of expectations and speculation. In contrast to the previously held belief, agents that anticipate the market are now accused of inefficient, if not irrational behaviour; they are said to be misinterpreting or violating the "hard data" that should lead the market on the path of equilibrium. According to the author, this new vein is challenging, yet the new "bad

  6. AN ESTIMATION OF CHINESE RENMINBI EXCHANGE RATE IMPACT ON THE REAL EXPORTS OF INDONESIA TO THE US: IS THERE A J-CURVE?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diyah Putriani

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks whether a J-Curve exists on the impact of changes in the Chinese Renminbi (RMB exchange rates on bilateral exports of Indonesia to the United States (US, particularly in the long run. The Johansen cointegration procedures and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM regression are applied. The cointegration test shows that there are long-term relationships amongst real GDP of US, Indonesian Rupiah (IDR, real exchange rates and volatility, and Chinese RMB real exchange rates. The result shows that the RMB exchange rate has a negative significant impact (substitution relationship on Indonesian export to the US. The result also suggests a dissatisfaction of the Marshall-Lerner condition indicating the J-curve phenomenon does not exist.

  7. The Link Between Adherence to International Standards of Good Practice, Foreign Exchange Spreads, and Ratings

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew J Tiffin; Christian B. Mulder; Charalambos Christofides

    2003-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between adherence to international standards of good practice in policy-making and two key indicators of access to capital markets and the cost of this access: spreads and sovereign ratings. In contrast to other work, this study reviews a broad set of indicators for adherence to international standards. The estimations are conducted for emerging market economies, and pay particular attention to issues of persistence in spreads and ratings and nonlinearitie...

  8. Effect of low /sup 60/Co dose rates on sister chromatid exchange incidence in the benthic worm. Neanthes arenaceodentata

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harrison, F.L.; Rice, D.W. Jr.

    1981-10-13

    The usefulness of sister chromatid exchange (SCE) induction as a measure of low-level radiation effect was examined in a benthic marine worm, Neanthes arenaceodentata. Larvae were exposed to /sup 60/Co radiation for 12 to 24 h at total doses ranging from 0.5 to 309 R and at dose rates from 0.04 to 13 R/h. Animals exposed at intermediate dose rates (0.5, 0.6, 1.25, 2.0, and 2.5 R/h) had SCE frequencies per chromosome about twice that of those receiving no radiation (controls), whereas those exposed at the higher dose rates (7.0 and 13 R/h) had SCE frequencies lower than the controls. Animals exposed at the lower dose rates (0.04 and 0.1 R/h) had lower SCE frequencies than those exposed at intermediate dose rates (and higher SCE frequencies than controls). The length of chromosome pair number one differed among metaphase spreads and was used as an index of chromosome condensation in a given metaphase. Because there is a possibility that chromosome morphology may affect the ability to resolve SCEs, morphology will be monitored in future studies. A preliminary experiment was performed to assess the effects of 2.2 and 11.5 R/h for 24 h on growth and development. Larvae observed at 6 and 17 d after irradiation did not have significantly different numbers of abnormal larvae or survival rates.

  9. Volatility modeling for IDR exchange rate through APARCH model with student-t distribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nugroho, Didit Budi; Susanto, Bambang

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the performance of APARCH(1,1) volatility model with the Student-t error distribution on five foreign currency selling rates to Indonesian rupiah (IDR), including the Swiss franc (CHF), the Euro (EUR), the British pound (GBP), Japanese yen (JPY), and the US dollar (USD). Six years daily closing rates over the period of January 2010 to December 2016 for a total number of 1722 observations have analysed. The Bayesian inference using the efficient independence chain Metropolis-Hastings and adaptive random walk Metropolis methods in the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme has been applied to estimate the parameters of model. According to the DIC criterion, this study has found that the APARCH(1,1) model under Student-t distribution is a better fit than the model under normal distribution for any observed rate return series. The 95% highest posterior density interval suggested the APARCH models to model the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD volatilities. In particular, the IDR/JPY and IDR/USD data, respectively, have significant negative and positive leverage effect in the rate returns. Meanwhile, the optimal power coefficient of volatility has been found to be statistically different from 2 in adopting all rate return series, save the IDR/EUR rate return series.

  10. Very low sister-chromatid exchange rate in Seventh-Day Adventists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wulf, H C; Iversen, A S; Husum, B; Niebuhr, E

    1986-08-01

    42 Seventh-Day Adventists (SDAs) and 42 controls matched for sex, age and occupation had their sister-chromatid exchange (SCE) examined in peripheral blood lymphocytes. This was done to examine if the SCE frequency was lower in this group of people, who are known to have a decreased cancer risk compared to the general population. The average SCE/cell in 30 cells from each person was 5.54 +/- 0.07 (mean +/- standard error of the mean) for the SDAs and 8.00 +/- 0.15 for the controls, the difference being statistically significant (p less than 0.00001). No difference in SCE frequency was found between SDAs eating only an ovo-lacto-vegetarian diet and those eating some fish or meat. The mitotic index (MI) was significantly higher and the replication index (RI) was significantly lower in SDAs than in controls. No correlation was found between gamma (a statistical transformation of SCEs/cell) and MI or RI within the groups of SDAs or controls. In the pooled data there was a negative correlation of gamma and MI and a positive correlation of gamma and RI. Of the interpersonal variation in gamma 8% and 14% could be explained by MI and RI. The finding of a lower SCE frequency in a group of SDAs who have a low risk of cancer might indirectly indicate a relation between SCE and cancer and encourages further studies of SCE and diet.

  11. Gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice as affected by plant regulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Félix Alvarez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice, as affected by type and application time of plant growth regulators. A randomized block design, in a 4x2 factorial arrangement, with four replicates was used. Treatments consisted of three growth regulators (mepiquat chloride, trinexapac-ethyl, and paclobutrazol, besides a control treatment applied at two different phenological stages: early tillering or panicle primordial differentiation. The experiment was performed under sprinkler-irrigated field conditions. Net CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance, plant transpiration, and water-use efficiency were measured four times in Primavera upland rice cultivar, between booting and milky grain phenophases. Gas exchange rates were neither influenced by growth regulators nor by application time. There was, however, interaction between these factors on the other variables. Application of trinexapac-ethyl at both tillering and differentiation stages reduced plant height and negatively affected yield components and rice productivity. However, paclobutrazol and mepiquat chloride applied at tillering, reduced plant height without affecting rice yield. Mepiquat chloride acted as a growth stimulator when applied at the differentiation stage, and significantly increased plant height, panicle number, and grain yield of upland rice.

  12. Modeling variations in the cedi/dollar exchange rate in Ghana: an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techie Quaicoe, Michael; Twenefour, Frank B K; Baah, Emmanuel M; Nortey, Ezekiel N N

    2015-01-01

    This research article aimed at modeling the variations in the dollar/cedi exchange rate. It examines the applicability of a range of ARCH/GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of the series. The variants considered include the ARMA, GARCH, IGARCH, EGARCH and M-GARCH specifications. The results show that the series was non stationary which resulted from the presence of a unit root in it. The ARMA (1, 1) was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean. From the Box-Ljung test statistics x-squared of 1476.338 with p value 0.00217 for squared returns and 16.918 with 0.0153 p values for squared residuals, the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect was rejected at 5% significance level indicating the presence of an ARCH effect in the series. ARMA (1, 1) + GARCH (1, 1) which has all parameters significant was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean with conditional variance, thus showing adequacy in describing the conditional mean with variance of the return series at 5% significant level. A 24 months forecast for the mean actual exchange rates and mean returns from January, 2013 to December, 2014 made also showed that the fitted model is appropriate for the data and a depreciating trend of the cedi against the dollar for forecasted period respectively.

  13. Comparative Analysis To Determine Predictive Model Accuracy : A dynamic currency exchange rate predictive model development using SAP HANA Predictive Analytic Library (PAL) algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Oke, Mudiaga

    2014-01-01

    The present thesis describes the development and implementation of a dynamic currency exchange rate predictive model. The aim of the thesis was to measure and determine the accuracy of a dynamic currency exchange rate predictive model by analysing different historical data samples. The theoretical framework of the thesis focused on research into different disciplines related to predicted analytics and the different data mining algorithms. The study was carried out using quantitative data ...

  14. Döviz Kuru Rejimlerinin Politik Ekonomisi: Seçilmis Avrupa Ülkeleri üzerine Bir Panel Veri Analizi/Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: A Panel Data Analysis of Selected European Countries

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ahmet Beskaya; Havanur Ergün

    2015-01-01

    .... In order to achieve this goal, we apply for Binary Choice Panel Probit Model to examine the relationships between exchange rate regimes and financial depth, real exchange rate, capital inflow and democracy...

  15. Linkage between Ringgit exchange rate and U.S Dollar | Idalisa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malaysia, the movement of its currency rate i.e. Ringgit as against to US dollar are unpredictable and unregulated. Therefore, this causes some difficulty to appreciate the movement of macroeconomic analysis and market surveillance purposes. In 1965, Chaos theory was introduced, and it focused on behaviour and ...

  16. Döviz Kuru Belirsizliğinin İhracata Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Bir Uygulama(The Effect of Exchange Rate on Export: An Analysis for Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Recep TARI

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the relationship between exchange rate and export volume is researched by using quarterly data for 1989:Q1 and 2007:Q3 periods In Turkey. According to empirical results, for the periods when uncertainty of exchange rate influences export volume negatively in the short period uncertainty of exchange rate doesn’t have an impact on export volume.

  17. Döviz Kuru Riski Yönetimi: Türkiye Tütün Endüstrisi Örneği (Exchange Rate Risk Management: The Case Of Turkish Tobacco Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Murat DOĞANAY

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate movements, along with globalization, have become more important not only for financial institutions but also for real sector companies. Also exchange rate risk is important for non-financial companies regards to both assets and liabilities. Management of this exchange rate risk exposure has an impact on competitiveness of these companies. This paper reviews the impact level of exchange rate movements, determination of the structure of exchange rate risk position on the basis of currency and also determination of the approaches to exchange rate risk management in the tobacco industry which has very high concentration level. It’s found that the firms want to hedge against the exchange rate risk particularly in the export transactions. A significant number of firms don’t use exchange rate risk management systematically. The firms prefer operational hedging much more than financial hedging. The primarily reasons of not using financial tools in the exchange rate risk management are the presence of import transactions and the expectation of exchange rate increase. Finally, it’s concluded that the firms use foreign currency loans as a tool for exchange rate risk management in order to balance their exchange rate risk position.

  18. Impacts of Government Debt, the Exchange Rate and Other Macroeconomic Variables on Aggregate Output in Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Hsing

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Applying aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis and based on a quarterly sample during 2000.Q4–2015.Q4, this paper finds that Croatia’s aggregate output is positively associated with government debt as percent of GDP during 2000.Q4–2008.Q4, real appreciation of the kuna, the real stock price, German real GDP, the real oil price and real wages and negatively influenced by government debt as percent of GDP during 2009.Q1–2015.Q4, the real lending rate and the expected inflation rate. The dynamic relationships between real GDP and government debt as percent of GDP suggest that fiscal discipline needs to be exercised in pursuing expansionary macroeconomic policy in the future.

  19. The rate of nitrite reduction in leaves as indicated by O₂ and CO₂ exchange during photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichelmann, H; Oja, V; Peterson, R B; Laisk, A

    2011-03-01

    Light response (at 300 ppm CO(2) and 10-50 ppm O(2) in N(2)) and CO(2) response curves [at absorbed photon fluence rate (PAD) of 550 μmol m(-2) s(-1)] of O(2) evolution and CO(2) uptake were measured in tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) leaves grown on either NO(3)(-) or NH(4)(+) as N source and in potato (Solanum tuberosum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), and amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.) leaves grown on NH(4)NO(3). Photosynthetic O(2) evolution in excess of CO(2) uptake was measured with a stabilized zirconia O(2) electrode and an infrared CO(2) analyser, respectively, and the difference assumed to represent the rate of electron flow to acceptors alternative to CO(2), mainly NO(2)(-), SO(4)(2-), and oxaloacetate. In NO(3)(-)-grown tobacco, as well as in sorghum, amaranth, and young potato, the photosynthetic O(2)-CO(2) flux difference rapidly increased to about 1 μmol m(-2) s(-1) at very low PADs and the process was saturated at 50 μmol quanta m(-2) s(-1). At higher PADs the O(2)-CO(2) flux difference continued to increase proportionally with the photosynthetic rate to a maximum of about 2 μmol m(-2) s(-1). In NH(4)(+)-grown tobacco, as well as in potato during tuber filling, the low-PAD component of surplus O(2) evolution was virtually absent. The low-PAD phase was ascribed to photoreduction of NO(2)(-) which successfully competes with CO(2) reduction and saturates at a rate of about 1 μmol O(2) m(-2) s(-1) (9% of the maximum O(2) evolution rate). The high-PAD component of about 1 μmol O(2) m(-2) s(-1), superimposed on NO(2)(-) reduction, may represent oxaloacetate reduction. The roles of NO(2)(-), oxaloacetate, and O(2) reduction in the regulation of ATP/NADPH balance are discussed.

  20. Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva (Floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and actual demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julio López

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Il presente articolo esamina i vantaggi relativi dei tassi di cambio fluttuanti nei confronti di un regime di tassi di cambio a parità rigidamente ancorate (hard peg, ponendo particolare enfasi sulle implicazioni per la domanda effettiva. In particolare, esso valuta se un deprezzamento della valuta abbia un effetto benefico sulla domanda aggregata e dunque sull’occupazione. Si sostiene che tale questione è centrale per il principio della domanda effettiva, e che l’idea che un deprezzamento valutario sia in grado di stabilizzare la domanda effettiva, equivale in larga misura a sostenere che la flessibilità (verso il basso dei salari nominali (e reali possa assicurare la piena occupazione. Coerentemente con ciò, viene analizzata la relazione tra la flessibilità verso il basso dei salari e la domanda effettiva, e viene valutata criticamente (dal punto di vista sia teorico sia empirico l’ipotesi che la flessibilità del tasso di cambio possa avere proprietà stabilizzanti quando si tenga conto di shock esogeni di varia natura. L’articolo si chiude con brevi deduzioni di teoria e di politica economiche.   This paper examines the relative advantages of floating exchange rates against a system of exchange rates for the same rigidly anchored (hard peg, with particular emphasis on the implications for effective demand. In particular, it will assess whether a currency depreciation has a beneficial effect on aggregate demand and hence employment. It is argued that this issue is central to the principle of effective demand, and that the idea that a currency depreciation is able to stabilize the effective demand, is equivalent to a large extent to support that flexibility (down in nominal wages (and real to ensure full employment. Consistent with this, we analyze the relationship between the downward flexibility of wages and effective demand, and is critically evaluated (in terms of both theoretical and empirical hypothesis that the flexibility

  1. Experimental investigation of rates and mechanisms of isotope exchange (O, H) between volcanic ash and isotopically-labeled water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nolan, Gary S.; Bindeman, Ilya N.

    2013-06-01

    The hydrogen and oxygen isotope ratios in hydrous minerals and volcanic glass are routinely used as paleo-proxies to infer the isotopic values of meteoric waters and thus paleo-climatic conditions. We report a series of long-term exposure experiments of distal 7700 BP Mt. Mazama ash (-149‰ δ2H, +7‰ δ18O, 3.8 wt.% H2O) with isotopically-labeled water (+650‰ δ2H, +56‰ δ18O). Experiments were done at 70, 40 and 20 °C, and ranged in duration from 1 to 14454 h (˜20 months), to evaluate the rates of deuterium and 18O exchange, and investigate the relative role of exchange and diffusion. We also investigate the effect of drying on H2Otot and δ2H in native and reacted ash that can be used in defining the protocols for natural sample preparation. We employ Thermal Conversion Elemental Analyzer (TCEA) mass spectrometry, thermogravimetric analysis and a KBr pellet technique with infrared spectroscopy to measure the evolution of δ2H, total water, and OH water peaks in the course of exposure experiments, and in varying lengths of vacuum drying. Time series experiments aided by infrared measurements demonstrate the following new results: (i) It wasobserved that from 5 to >100‰ δ2H increases with time, with faster deuterium exchange at higher temperatures. Times at 15% of theoretical "full δ2H exchange" are: 15.8 years at 20 °C, 5.2 years at 40 °C, and 0.4 years at 70 °C. (ii) Even at extended exposure durations experiments show no net increase in water weight percent nor in δ18O in ash; water released from ash rapidly by thermal decomposition is not enriched in δ18O. This observation clearly suggests that it is hydrogen exchange, and not water addition or oxygen exchange that characterizes the process. (iii) Our time series drying, Fourier transform infrared (FTIR)-KBr and Thermogravimetric Analyzer (TGA) analyses collectively suggest a simple mechanistic view that there are three kinds of "water" in ash: water (mostly H2O) that is less strongly bonded

  2. NON-EQUILIBRIUM H{sub 2} FORMATION IN THE EARLY UNIVERSE: ENERGY EXCHANGES, RATE COEFFICIENTS, AND SPECTRAL DISTORTIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coppola, C. M.; Longo, S. [Dipartimento di Chimica, Universita degli Studi di Bari, Via Orabona 4, I-70126 Bari (Italy); D' Introno, R. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Universita degli Studi di Bari, Via Amendola 173, I-70126 Bari (Italy); Galli, D. [INAF-Osservatorio Astrofisico di Arcetri, Largo E. Fermi 5, I-50125 Firenze (Italy); Tennyson, J., E-mail: carla.coppola@chimica.uniba.it [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT (United Kingdom)

    2012-03-01

    Energy exchange processes play a crucial role in the early universe, affecting the thermal balance and the dynamical evolution of the primordial gas. In the present work we focus on the consequences of a non-thermal distribution of the level populations of H{sub 2}: first, we determine the excitation temperatures of vibrational transitions and the non-equilibrium heat transfer; second, we compare the modifications to chemical reaction rate coefficients with respect to the values obtained assuming local thermodynamic equilibrium; and third, we compute the spectral distortions to the cosmic background radiation generated by the formation of H{sub 2} in vibrationally excited levels. We conclude that non-equilibrium processes cannot be ignored in cosmological simulations of the evolution of baryons, although their observational signatures remain below current limits of detection. New fits to the equilibrium and non-equilibrium heat transfer functions are provided.

  3. The utilization rate of the regional health information exchange: how it impacts on health care delivery outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mäenpää, Tiina; Asikainen, Paula; Gissler, Mika; Siponen, Kimmo; Maass, Marianne; Saranto, Kaija; Suominen, Tarja

    2012-01-01

    Interest in improving quality and effectiveness is the primary driver for health information exchange efforts across a health care system to improve the provision of public health care services. The aim here was to describe and identify the impact of a regional health information exchange (HIE) using quantitative statistics for 2004-2008 in one hospital district in Finland. We conducted a comparative, longitudinal 5-year follow-up study to evaluate the utilization rates of HIE, and the impact on health care delivery outcomes. The selected outcomes were total laboratory tests, radiology examinations, appointments, emergency visits, and referrals. The HIE utilization rates increased annually in all 10 federations of municipalities, and the viewing of reference information increased steadily in each professional group over the 5-year study period. In these federations, a significant connection was found to the number of laboratory tests and radiology examinations, with a statistically significant increase in the number of viewed references and use of HIE. The higher the numbers of emergency visits and appointments, the higher the numbers of emergency referrals to specialized care, viewed references, and HIE usage among the groups of different health care professionals. There is increasing interest in HIE usage through regional health information system among health professionals to improve health care delivery regionally and bring information on the patient directly to care delivery. It will be important to study which changes in working methods in the service system are explained by RHIS. Also, the experiences of the change that has taken place should be studied among the different stakeholders, administrative representatives, and patients.

  4. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.       JEL Codes: E58, F31Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rates, Monetary

  5. Do populismo às bandas cambiais: a evolução da política cambial no Chile de 1970 a 1999 From populism to exchange rate bands: the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile from 1970 to 1999

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrícia Helena F. Cunha

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available We discuss in this paper the evolution of exchange rate policy in Chile since the seventies, with special attention to overvaluation and undervaluation cycles. Following a recent literature that argues in favor of competitive currencies as part of a development strategy, we argue that the Chilean exchange rate policy in the years that go from 1984 until 1999 were very important to its growth results. Chile even managed to go through the nineties without a major external crisis, especially when compared to its Latin American neighbors. We argue here that the exchange rate crawling band adopted in the middle eighties and nineties was important for its growth strategy.

  6. Initial rate and equilibrium isotope exchange studies on the ATP-dependent activity of polyphosphate Glucokinase from Propionibacterium shermanii.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kowalczyk, T H; Horn, P J; Pan, W H; Phillips, N F

    1996-05-28

    Polyphosphate glucokinase [EC 2.7.1.63] catalyzes the phosphorylation of glucose using either inorganic polyphosphate [poly(P)] or ATP as the phosphoryl donor. Both activities purified from Propionibacterium shermanii are the functional properties of a single enzyme with separate binding sites for the two phosphoryl donor substrates. The enzyme was found to utilize poly(P) much more efficiently than it does ATP, with a kcat/Kpoly(P) to kcat/KATP ratio of 2800. The catalytic constant for poly(P) is about 2-fold higher than for ATP. Other nucleotides like GTP and dATP also served as substrates with good efficiencies. The ATP-dependent reaction was analyzed using steady-state kinetics and isotopic exchange kinetics at chemical equilibrium. Intersecting initial velocity patterns for both glucose and ATP indicate sequential addition of substrates. Product inhibition studies resulted in two competitive and two noncompetitive patterns, which is characteristic of a Theorell-Chance mechanism or a random mechanism with two dead-end complexes. Results of isotope exchange experiments, however, rule out a Theorell-Chance mechanism, as well as a truly random mechanism. They are not consistent with a partially random mechanism (although a kinetically compulsory order of substrate binding is not excluded), where glucose is preferentially bound to free enzyme before ATP, and ADP is preferentially released as the first product, followed by glucose 6-phosphate. Dead-end inhibition analysis confirms this order of substrate binding. Competitive inhibition of ADP vs ATP is explained as resulting primarily from binding as a dead-end inhibitor (E.Glc.ADP) and not as a product. Another weaker abortive complex, E.ATP.G6P, is also formed. The chemical transformation or the release of ADP is the rate-limiting step in ATP utilization.

  7. Refractive lens exchange in younger and older presbyopes: comparison of complication rates, 3 months clinical and patient-reported outcomes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schallhorn SC

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Steven C Schallhorn,1–3 Julie M Schallhorn,1 Martina Pelouskova,3 Jan A Venter,3 Keith A Hettinger,3 Stephen J Hannan,3 David Teenan3 1Department of Ophthalmology, University of California, San Francisco, CA, USA; 2Roski Eye Institute, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA; 3Optical Express, Glasgow UK Purpose: To compare refractive and visual outcomes, patient satisfaction, and complication rates among different age categories of patients who underwent refractive lens exchange (RLE. Methods: A stratified, simple random sample of patients matched on preoperative sphere and cylinder was selected for four age categories: 45–49 years (group A, 50–54 years (group B, 55–59 years (group C, and 60–65 years (group D. Each group contained 320 patients. All patients underwent RLE with a multifocal intraocular lens at least in one eye. Three months postoperative refractive/visual and patient-reported outcomes are presented. Results: The percentage of patients that achieved binocular uncorrected distance visual acuity 20/20 or better was 91.6% (group A, 93.8% (group B, 91.6% (group C, 88.8% (group D, P=0.16. Binocularly, 80.0% of patients in group A, 84.7% in group B, 78.9% in group C, and 77.8% in group D achieved 20/30 or better uncorrected near visual acuity (P=0.13. The proportion of eyes within 0.50 D of emmetropia was 84.4% in group A, 86.8% in group B, 85.7% in group C, and 85.8% in group D (P=0.67. There was no statistically significant difference in postoperative satisfaction, visual phenomena, dry eye symptoms, distance or near vision activities. Apart from higher rate of iritis in the age group 50–55 years, there was no statistically significant difference in postoperative complication rates. Conclusion: RLE can be safely performed in younger as well as older presbyopes. No significant difference was found in clinical or patient-reported outcomes. Keywords: refractive lens exchange, multifocal IOLs, younger

  8. Screened-exchange density functional approach to Auger recombination and impact ionization rates in InGaAs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, Silvia; Asahi, Ryoji; Geller, Clint; Freeman, Arthur

    2004-03-01

    We present an ab-initio modeling approach for Auger recombination and impact ionization in semiconductors directed at i) quantitative rate determinations and 2) elucidating trends with respect to alloy composition, carrier concentration and temperature. We present a fully first-principles formalism (S.Picozzi, R.Asahi, C.B. Geller and A.J.Freeman, Phys.Rev.Lett. 89, 197601 (2002); Phys.Rev.B 65, 113206 (2002).), based on accurate energy bands and wave functions within the screened exchange local density approximation and the full-potential linearized augmented plane wave (FLAPW) method (E.Wimmer, H.Krakauer, M.Weinert, A.J.Freeman, Phys.Rev.B 24, 864 (1981)). Results are presented for electron- and hole-initiated impact ionization processes and Auger recombinations for p-type and n-type InGaAs. Anisotropy and composition effects in the related rates are discussed in terms of the underlying band-structures. Calculated Auger lifetimes, in general agreement with experiments, are studied for different recombination mechanisms (i.e. CCCH, CHHL, CHHS, involving conduction electrons (C), heavy- (H) and light-hole (L), spin split-off (S) band) in order to understand the dominant mechanism.

  9. Effects of ozone on growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates of four Bangladeshi cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akhtar, Nahid [United Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Inada, Hidetoshi; Hoshino, Daiki; Kondo, Taisuke [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Fukami, Motohiro [Faculty of Agriculture, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya, Tochigi 321-8505 (Japan); Funada, Ryo [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Izuta, Takeshi, E-mail: izuta@cc.tuat.ac.j [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan)

    2010-09-15

    To assess the effects of tropospheric O{sub 3} on rice cultivated in Bangladesh, four Bangladeshi cultivars (BR11, BR14, BR28 and BR29) of rice (Oryza sativa L.) were exposed daily to charcoal-filtered air or O{sub 3} at 60 and 100 nl l{sup -1} (10:00-17:00) from 1 July to 28 November 2008. The whole-plant dry mass and grain yield per plant of the four cultivars were significantly reduced by the exposure to O{sub 3}. The exposure to O{sub 3} significantly reduced net photosynthetic rate of the 12th and flag leaves of the four cultivars. The sensitivity to O{sub 3} of growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates was not significantly different among the four cultivars. The present study suggests that the sensitivity to O{sub 3} of yield of the four Bangladeshi rice cultivars is greater than that of American rice cultivars and is similar to that of Japanese rice cultivars and that O{sub 3} may detrimentally affect rice production in Bangladesh. - Bangladeshi cultivars of rice are sensitive to O{sub 3} below 100 ppb.

  10. Forecasting of magnitude and duration of currency crises based on the analysis of distortions of fractal scaling in exchange rate fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uritskaya, Olga Y.

    2005-05-01

    Results of fractal stability analysis of daily exchange rate fluctuations of more than 30 floating currencies for a 10-year period are presented. It is shown for the first time that small- and large-scale dynamical instabilities of national monetary systems correlate with deviations of the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) exponent from the value 1.5 predicted by the efficient market hypothesis. The observed dependence is used for classification of long-term stability of floating exchange rates as well as for revealing various forms of distortion of stable currency dynamics prior to large-scale crises. A normal range of DFA exponents consistent with crisis-free long-term exchange rate fluctuations is determined, and several typical scenarios of unstable currency dynamics with DFA exponents fluctuating beyond the normal range are identified. It is shown that monetary crashes are usually preceded by prolonged periods of abnormal (decreased or increased) DFA exponent, with the after-crash exponent tending to the value 1.5 indicating a more reliable exchange rate dynamics. Statistically significant regression relations (R=0.99, p<0.01) between duration and magnitude of currency crises and the degree of distortion of monofractal patterns of exchange rate dynamics are found. It is demonstrated that the parameters of these relations characterizing small- and large-scale crises are nearly equal, which implies a common instability mechanism underlying these events. The obtained dependences have been used as a basic ingredient of a forecasting technique which provided correct in-sample predictions of monetary crisis magnitude and duration over various time scales. The developed technique can be recommended for real-time monitoring of dynamical stability of floating exchange rate systems and creating advanced early-warning-system models for currency crisis prevention.

  11. A Generalized Adsorption Rate Model Based on the Limiting-Component Constraint in Ion-Exchange Chromatographic Separation for Multicomponent Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    In species exchange processes (e.g., ion-exchange chromatography column), conventional adsorption rate models describe mass transfer (or exchange) between phases, assuming the existence of a counterpart species. In contrast, the adsorption models may not be useful in an inert environment (or...... inactive zone) where adsorption/desorption cannot take place because of lack of counterpart species. In packed-bed chromatography described as a distributed dynamic system, a wide range of concentrations including zero-concentrations can be distributed over the column length and the concentration profiles...... such that conventional LDF (linear driving force) type models are extended to inactive zones without loosing their generality. Based on a limiting component constraint, an exchange probability kernel is developed for multi-component systems. The LDF-type model with the kernel is continuous with time and axial direction...

  12. Exchange Rates and Fundamentals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engel, Charles; West, Kenneth D.

    2005-01-01

    We show analytically that in a rational expectations present-value model, an asset price manifests near-random walk behavior if fundamentals are I (1) and the factor for discounting future fundamentals is near one. We argue that this result helps explain the well-known puzzle that fundamental variables such as relative money supplies, outputs,…

  13. Changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and their impact on the return of stock indexes from the viewpoint of a european and of an american investor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Rejnuš

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available This article tries to analyse the impact of changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate on the return of stock indexes. We deal with investments on the American and on the European stock market made by European investors (investing in EUR and by American investors (investing in USD simultaneously on both these markets in the period of the last ten years. The investments are analysed from the viewpoint of five different investing periods with a common date of termination on 31 December 2003.Using correlation coefficients, we have quantified the dependence between the development of relative weekly changes in the USD/EUR exchange rate and of relative weekly changes in the value of both indexes converted to the investor’s home currency in different time periods. We have also quantified the dependence between the development of relative weekly changes in the value of both indexes under study expressed in their original currency and after conversion to the investor’s home currency.The analysis has shown that even in periods of considerable exchange rate fluctuation, the development of stock market rates had a significantly greater impact on the return of stock indexes than the development of the two currencies’ exchange rates.

  14. Numerical exploration of Kaldorian interregional macrodynamics: stability and the trade threshold for business cycles under fixed exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asada, Toichiro; Douskos, Christos; Markellos, Panagiotis

    2011-01-01

    The stability of equilibrium and the possibility of generation of business cycles in a discrete interregional Kaldorian macrodynamic model with fixed exchange rates are explored using numerical methods. One of the aims is to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the numerical approach for dynamical systems of moderately high dimensionality and several parameters. The model considered is five-dimensional with four parameters, the speeds of adjustment of the goods markets and the degrees of economic interactions between the regions through trade and capital movement. Using a grid search method for the determination of the region of stability of equilibrium in two-dimensional parameter subspaces, and coefficient criteria for the flip bifurcation - and Hopf bifurcation - curve, we determine the stability region in several parameter ranges and identify Hopf bifurcation curves when they exist. It is found that interregional cycles emerge only for sufficient interregional trade. The relevant threshold is predicted by the model at 14 - 16 % of trade transactions. By contrast, no minimum level of capital mobility exists in a global sense as a requirement for the emergence of interregional cycles; the main conclusion being, therefore, that cycles may occur for very low levels of capital mobility if trade is sufficient. Examples of bifurcation and Lyapunov exponent diagrams illustrating the occurrence of cycles or period doubling, and examples of the development of the occurring cycles, are given. Both supercritical and subcritical bifurcations are found to occur, the latter type indicating coexistence of a point and a cyclical attractor.

  15. DOES WTI OIL PRICE RETURNS VOLATILITY SPILLOVER TO THE EXCHANGE RATE AND STOCK INDEX IN THE US?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ching-Chun Wei

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the volatility of the West Texas Intermediate oil spot returns (WTIR is affected by the Texas Light Sweet oil futures returns (FUR, the exchange rate returns between the US dollar and the Euro (ERR, and the S&P 500 energy index returns (EIR, and if any of those have changed over time. The daily data of the WTIR, the FUR, the ERR, and the EIR between the period of January 4, 2000 and September 30, 2009, were utilized. The empirical results of the multivariate GARCH of the BEKK model indicated that the WTIR is significantly affected by its own past volatility, and by the volatility of FUR, ERR, and EIR. Most likely, WTIR employs a structural conversion in our dummy variable for selected time points. This suggests that investors could use the FUR’s past volatility as a basis for WTIR purchase. In addition, the changes in ERR’s and EIR’s past volatility can be partially used as a basis for the same purpose.

  16. Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Shaobo; An, Haizhong; Chen, Zhihua; Liu, Xueyong

    2017-08-01

    In traditional econometrics, a time series must be in a stationary sequence. However, it usually shows time-varying fluctuations, and it remains a challenge to execute a multiscale analysis of the data and discover the topological characteristics of conduction in different scales. Wavelet analysis and complex networks in physical statistics have special advantages in solving these problems. We select the exchange rate variable from the Chinese market and the commodity price index variable from the world market as the time series of our study. We explore the driving factors behind the behavior of the two markets and their topological characteristics in three steps. First, we use the Kalman filter to find the optimal estimation of the relationship between the two markets. Second, wavelet analysis is used to extract the scales of the relationship that are driven by different frequency wavelets. Meanwhile, we search for the actual economic variables corresponding to different frequency wavelets. Finally, a complex network is used to search for the transfer characteristics of the combination of states driven by different frequency wavelets. The results show that statistical physics have a unique advantage over traditional econometrics. The Chinese market has time-varying impacts on the world market: it has greater influence when the world economy is stable and less influence in times of turmoil. The process of forming the state combination is random. Transitions between state combinations have a clustering feature. Based on these characteristics, we can effectively reduce the information burden on investors and correctly respond to the government's policy mix.

  17. Water Exchange Rate Constant as a Biomarker of Treatment Efficacy in Patients With Brain Metastases Undergoing Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mehrabian, Hatef, E-mail: hatef.mehrabian@sri.utoronto.ca [Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Desmond, Kimberly L. [Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Chavez, Sofia [Research Imaging Centre, Centre for Addiction and Mental Health, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Bailey, Colleen [Computer Science Department, University College London, London (United Kingdom); Rola, Radoslaw [Neurosurgery and Pediatric Neurosurgery, Medical University, Lublin (Poland); Sahgal, Arjun [Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Czarnota, Gregory J. [Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Soliman, Hany [Radiation Oncology, Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Martel, Anne L. [Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Stanisz, Greg J. [Medical Biophysics, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Physical Sciences, Sunnybrook Research Institute, Toronto, Ontario (Canada); Neurosurgery and Pediatric Neurosurgery, Medical University, Lublin (Poland)

    2017-05-01

    Purpose: This study was designed to evaluate whether changes in metastatic brain tumors after stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) can be seen with quantitative MRI early after treatment. Methods and Materials: Using contrast-enhanced MRI, a 3-water-compartment tissue model consisting of intracellular (I), extracellular-extravascular (E), and vascular (V) compartments was used to assess the intra–extracellular water exchange rate constant (k{sub IE}), efflux rate constant (k{sub ep}), and water compartment volume fractions (M{sub 0,I}, M{sub 0,E}, M{sub 0,V}). In this prospective study, 19 patients were MRI-scanned before treatment and 1 week and 1 month after SRS. The change in model parameters between the pretreatment and 1-week posttreatment scans was correlated to the change in tumor volume between pretreatment and 1-month posttreatment scans. Results: At 1 week k{sub IE} differentiated (P<.001) tumors that had partial response from tumors with stable and progressive disease, and a high correlation (R=−0.76, P<.001) was observed between early changes in the k{sub IE} and tumor volume change 1 month after treatment. Other model parameters had lower correlation (M{sub 0,E}) or no correlation (k{sub ep}, M{sub 0,V}). Conclusions: This is the first study that measured k{sub IE} early after SRS, and it found that early changes in k{sub IE} (1 week after treatment) highly correlated with long-term tumor response and could predict the extent of tumor shrinkage at 1 month after SRS.

  18. Determination of Equine Cytochrome c Backbone Amide Hydrogen/Deuterium Exchange Rates by Mass Spectrometry Using a Wider Time Window and Isotope Envelope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamuro, Yoshitomo

    2017-03-01

    A new strategy to analyze amide hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX-MS) data is proposed, utilizing a wider time window and isotope envelope analysis of each peptide. While most current scientific reports present HDX-MS data as a set of time-dependent deuteration levels of peptides, the ideal HDX-MS data presentation is a complete set of backbone amide hydrogen exchange rates. The ideal data set can provide single amide resolution, coverage of all exchange events, and the open/close ratio of each amide hydrogen in EX2 mechanism. Toward this goal, a typical HDX-MS protocol was modified in two aspects: measurement of a wider time window in HDX-MS experiments and deconvolution of isotope envelope of each peptide. Measurement of a wider time window enabled the observation of deuterium incorporation of most backbone amide hydrogens. Analysis of the isotope envelope instead of centroid value provides the deuterium distribution instead of the sum of deuteration levels in each peptide. A one-step, global-fitting algorithm optimized exchange rate and deuterium retention during the analysis of each amide hydrogen by fitting the deuterated isotope envelopes at all time points of all peptides in a region. Application of this strategy to cytochrome c yielded 97 out of 100 amide hydrogen exchange rates. A set of exchange rates determined by this approach is more appropriate for a patent or regulatory filing of a biopharmaceutical than a set of peptide deuteration levels obtained by a typical protocol. A wider time window of this method also eliminates false negatives in protein-ligand binding site identification.

  19. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  20. The impact of water exchange rate and treatment processes on water-borne hormones in recirculation aquaculture systems containing sexually maturing Atlantic salmon Salmo salar

    Science.gov (United States)

    A controlled seven-month study was conducted in six replicated water recirculation aquaculture systems (WRAS) to assess post-smolt Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) performance in relation to WRAS water exchange rate. Unexpectedly high numbers of precocious sexually mature fish were observed in all WRAS...

  1. Evaluating a new method to estimate the rate of leaf respiration in the light by analysis of combined gas exchange and chlorophyll fluorescence measurements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Sun, Z.; Struik, P.C.; Gu, J.

    2011-01-01

    Day respiration (R(d)) is an important parameter in leaf ecophysiology. It is difficult to measure directly and is indirectly estimated from gas exchange (GE) measurements of the net photosynthetic rate (A), commonly using the Laisk method or the Kok method. Recently a new method was proposed to

  2. Influence of inlet velocity of air and solid particle feed rate on holdup mass and heat transfer characteristics in cyclone heat exchanger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mothilal, T. [T. J. S. Engineering College, Gummidipoond (India); Pitchandi, K. [Sri Venkateswara College of Engineering, Sriperumbudur (India)

    2015-10-15

    Present work elaborates the effect of inlet velocity of air and solid particle feed rate on holdup mass and heat transfer characteristics in a cyclone heat exchanger. The RNG k-ε turbulence model was adopted for modeling high turbulence flow and Discrete phase model (DPM) to track solid particles in a cyclone heat exchanger by ANSYS FLUENT software. The effect of inlet air velocity (5 to 25 m/s) and inlet solid particle feed rate of (0.2 to 2.5 g/s) at different particle diameter (300 to 500 μm) on holdup mass and heat transfer rate in cyclone heat exchanger was studied at air inlet temperature of 473 K. Results show that holdup mass and heat transfer rate increase with increase in inlet air velocity and inlet solid particle feed rate. Influence of solid particle feed rate on holdup mass has more significance. Experimental setup was built for high efficiency cyclone. Good agreement was found between experimental and simulation pressure drop. Empirical correlation was derived for dimensionless holdup mass and Nusselt number based on CFD data by regression technique. Correlation predicts dimensional holdup mass with +5% to -8% errors of experimental data and Nusselt number with +9% to -3%.

  3. İşletmelerde Bir Avantaj Unsuru Olarak Kur Korelasyonlarının Kullanımı(Using Exchange Rate Correlation as An Advantage Factor in Managements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cantürk KAYAHAN

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Today, international competition is not only based on production of technology and product, but also requires use of some financial advantages. Exchange rate correlations one of these advantages allow the financial managers to understand how exchange rates change and to follow portfolio risks better. Some exchange rates may change the same way, while the others may change opposite way. In this study, the effect of exchange rate correlations over a sample portfolio is analyzed and their possible advantages or disadvantages over firms are evaluated.

  4. Juvenile Rhus glabra leaves have higher temperatures and lower gas exchange rates than mature leaves when compared in the field during periods of high irradiance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snider, John L; Choinski, John S; Wise, Robert R

    2009-05-01

    We sought to test the hypothesis that stomatal development determines the timing of gas exchange competency, which then influences leaf temperature through transpirationally driven leaf cooling. To test this idea, daily patterns of gas exchange and leaflet temperature were obtained from leaves of two distinctively different developmental stages of smooth sumac (Rhus glabra) grown in its native habitat. Juvenile and mature leaves were also sampled for ultrastructural studies of stomatal development. When plants were sampled in May-June, the hypothesis was supported: juvenile leaflets were (for part of the day) from 1.4 to 6.0 degrees C warmer than mature leaflets and as much as 2.0 degrees C above ambient air temperature with lower stomatal conductance and photosynthetic rates than mature leaflets. When measurements were taken from July to October, no significant differences were observed, although mature leaflet gas exchange rates declined to the levels of the juvenile leaves. The gas exchange data were supported by the observations that juvenile leaves had approximately half the number of functional stomata on a leaf surface area basis as did mature leaves. It was concluded that leaf temperature and stage of leaf development in sumac are strongly linked with the higher surface temperatures observed in juvenile leaflets in the early spring possibly being involved in promoting photosynthesis and leaf expansion when air temperatures are cooler.

  5. Ratiometric analysis in hyperpolarized NMR (I): test of the two-site exchange model and the quantification of reaction rate constants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Lin Z; Kadlececk, Stephen; Xu, He N; Daye, Dania; Pullinger, Benjamin; Profka, Harrilla; Chodosh, Lewis; Rizi, Rahim

    2013-10-01

    Conventional methods for the analysis of in vivo hyperpolarized (13) C NMR data from the lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) reaction usually make assumptions on the stability of rate constants and/or the validity of the two-site exchange model. In this study, we developed a framework to test the validity of the assumption of stable reaction rate constants and the two-site exchange model in vivo via ratiometric fitting of the time courses of the signal ratio L(t)/P(t). Our analysis provided evidence that the LDH enzymatic kinetics observed by hyperpolarized NMR are in near-equilibrium and satisfy the two-site exchange model for only a specific time window. In addition, we quantified both the forward and reverse exchange rate constants of the LDH reaction for the transgenic and mouse xenograft models of breast cancer using the ratio fitting method developed, which includes only two modeling parameters and is less sensitive to the influence of instrument settings/protocols, such as flip angles, degree of polarization and tracer dosage. We further compared the ratio fitting method with a conventional two-site exchange modeling method, i.e. the differential equation fitting method, using both the experimental and simulated hyperpolarized NMR data. The ratio fitting method appeared to fit better than the differential equation fitting method for the reverse rate constant on the mouse tumor data, with less relative errors on average, whereas the differential equation fitting method also resulted in a negative reverse rate constant for one tumor. The simulation results indicated that the accuracy of both methods depends on the width of the transport function, noise level and rate constant ratio; one method may be more accurate than the other based on the experimental/biological conditions aforementioned. We were able to categorize our tumor models into specific conditions of the computer simulation and to estimate the errors of rate quantification. We also discussed possible

  6. Twisting the Dollar? On the Consistency of Short-Run and Long-Run Exchange Rate Expectations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Rülke, Jan; Frenkel, Michael

    2012-01-01

    ’ in the dollar/euro expectation formation process, i.e. market participants expect bandwagon effects in the short run, while they have stabilizing expectations in their long-run forecasts. Applying a panel probit analysis we find that this twisting behavior is more likely to occur in periods of excess exchange...

  7. MOVEMENT OF INTRA-INDUSTRY TRADE INDEX IN TERMS OF EXCHANGE RATE CHANGE: THEORETICAL ANALYSIS BASED ON A TWO-STAGE PRODUCTION MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuhiro Takahashi

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes the movement of intra-industry trade index when the exchange rate or the world price changes. In our two-stage production model, firms construct factories in a foreign country by foreign direct investment (FDI. The firms export components from the home country to the foreign factories, and import final products from the foreign factories. The foreign factories also sell the final products in the world market. Under this knockdown system, we research the movement of the intra-industry trade index of the home country. This paper shows that appreciation of the exchange rate does not always raise the intra-industry trade index. We also show that changes in the world price have the similar effect on the movement of the intra-industry trade index.

  8. STEADY-STATE HEAT REJECTION RATES FOR A COAXIAL BOREHOLE HEAT EXCHANGER DURING PASSIVE AND ACTIVE COOLING DETERMINED WITH THE NOVEL STEP THERMAL RESPONSE TEST METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marija Macenić

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available At three locations in Zagreb, classical and extended thermal response test (TRT was conducted on installed coaxial heat exchangers. With classic TR test, thermogeological properties of the ground and thermal resistance of the borehole were determined at each location. It is seen that thermal conductivity of the ground varies, due to difference in geological profile of the sites. In addition, experimental research of steady-state thermal response step test (SSTRST was carried out to determine heat rejection rates for passive and active cooling in steady state regime. Results showed that heat rejection rate is only between 8-11 W/m, which indicates that coaxial system is not suitable for passive cooling demands. Furthermore, the heat pump in passive cooling mode uses additional plate heat exchanger where there is additional temperature drop of working fluid by approximately 1,5 °C. Therefore, steady-state rejection rate for passive cooling is even lower for a real case project. Coaxial heat exchanger should be always designed for an active cooling regime with an operation of a heat pump compressor in a classical vapour compression refrigeration cycle.

  9. Hydrogen exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Foged; Rand, Kasper Dyrberg

    2016-01-01

    Hydrogen exchange (HX) monitored by mass spectrometry (MS) is a powerful analytical method for investigation of protein conformation and dynamics. HX-MS monitors isotopic exchange of hydrogen in protein backbone amides and thus serves as a sensitive method for probing protein conformation...... and dynamics along the entire protein backbone. This chapter describes the exchange of backbone amide hydrogen which is highly quenchable as it is strongly dependent on the pH and temperature. The HX rates of backbone amide hydrogen are sensitive and very useful probes of protein conformation......, as they are distributed along the polypeptide backbone and form the fundamental hydrogen-bonding networks of basic secondary structure. The effect of pressure on HX in unstructured polypeptides (poly-dl-lysine and oxidatively unfolded ribonuclease A) and native folded proteins (lysozyme and ribonuclease A) was evaluated...

  10. Determination of glucose exchange rates and permeability of erythrocyte membrane in preeclampsia and subsequent oxidative stress-related protein damage using dynamic-19F-NMR.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Elizabeth; Arnold, John R P; Fisher, Julie

    2017-02-01

    The cause of the pregnancy condition preeclampsia (PE) is thought to be endothelial dysfunction caused by oxidative stress. As abnormal glucose tolerance has also been associated with PE, we use a fluorinated-mimic of this metabolite to establish whether any oxidative damage to lipids and proteins in the erythrocyte membrane has increased cell membrane permeability. Data were acquired using 19 F Dynamic-NMR (DNMR) to measure exchange of 3-fluoro-3-deoxyglucose (3-FDG) across the membrane of erythrocytes from 10 pregnant women (5 healthy control women, and 5 from women suffering from PE). Magnetisation transfer was measured using the 1D selective inversion and 2D EXSY pulse sequences, over a range of time delays. Integrated intensities from these experiments were used in matrix diagonalisation to estimate the values of the rate constants of exchange and membrane permeability. No significant differences were observed for the rate of exchange of 3-FDG and membrane permeability between healthy pregnant women and those suffering from PE, leading us to conclude that no oxidative damage had occurred at this carrier-protein site in the membrane.

  11. The effect of the intermolecular potential formulation on the state-selected energy exchange rate coefficients in N2-N2 collisions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurnosov, Alexander; Cacciatore, Mario; Laganà, Antonio; Pirani, Fernando; Bartolomei, Massimiliano; Garcia, Ernesto

    2014-04-05

    The rate coefficients for N2-N2 collision-induced vibrational energy exchange (important for the enhancement of several modern innovative technologies) have been computed over a wide range of temperature. Potential energy surfaces based on different formulations of the intramolecular and intermolecular components of the interaction have been used to compute quasiclassically and semiclassically some vibrational to vibrational energy transfer rate coefficients. Related outcomes have been rationalized in terms of state-to-state probabilities and cross sections for quasi-resonant transitions and deexcitations from the first excited vibrational level (for which experimental information are available). On this ground, it has been possible to spot critical differences on the vibrational energy exchange mechanisms supported by the different surfaces (mainly by their intermolecular components) in the low collision energy regime, though still effective for temperatures as high as 10,000 K. It was found, in particular, that the most recently proposed intermolecular potential becomes the most effective in promoting vibrational energy exchange near threshold temperatures and has a behavior opposite to the previously proposed one when varying the coupling of vibration with the other degrees of freedom. Copyright © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Determination of glucose exchange rates and permeability of erythrocyte membrane in preeclampsia and subsequent oxidative stress-related protein damage using dynamic-{sup 19}F-NMR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dickinson, Elizabeth, E-mail: elizabeth.dickinson@york.ac.uk [University of York, Department of Chemistry (United Kingdom); Arnold, John R. P. [Selby College (United Kingdom); Fisher, Julie [University of Leeds, School of Chemistry (United Kingdom)

    2017-02-15

    The cause of the pregnancy condition preeclampsia (PE) is thought to be endothelial dysfunction caused by oxidative stress. As abnormal glucose tolerance has also been associated with PE, we use a fluorinated-mimic of this metabolite to establish whether any oxidative damage to lipids and proteins in the erythrocyte membrane has increased cell membrane permeability. Data were acquired using {sup 19}F Dynamic-NMR (DNMR) to measure exchange of 3-fluoro-3-deoxyglucose (3-FDG) across the membrane of erythrocytes from 10 pregnant women (5 healthy control women, and 5 from women suffering from PE). Magnetisation transfer was measured using the 1D selective inversion and 2D EXSY pulse sequences, over a range of time delays. Integrated intensities from these experiments were used in matrix diagonalisation to estimate the values of the rate constants of exchange and membrane permeability. No significant differences were observed for the rate of exchange of 3-FDG and membrane permeability between healthy pregnant women and those suffering from PE, leading us to conclude that no oxidative damage had occurred at this carrier-protein site in the membrane.

  13. Tassi di cambio fluttuanti, deprezzamento valutario e domanda effettiva: un commento (Floating exchange rates, currency depreciation and effective demand: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Sarcinelli

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Concordo certamente con gli autori sul punto principale, cioè che i tassi di cambio flessibili non danno luogo a un aggiustamento automatico che riporta all’equilibrio di piena occupazione. Ciò che vorrei sostenere è che i cambi flessibili, nondimeno, possono essere più vantaggiosi di quelli fissi e che la gestione del tasso di cambio per il conseguimento di obiettivi di politica economica interni, sebbene utile in alcune circostanze, non dovrebbe diventare la regola in un mondo in cui eventi finanziari influiscono di frequente sulle variabili reali.A mio avviso, l’intervento sul mercato dei cambi da parte della banca centrale dovrebbe avere una scarsa frequenza ed essere usato come segnale per bloccare una tendenza all’ingiù o all’insù, il che ovviamente richiede cooperazione e sostegno da parte di altre banche centrali. Quanto alle misure compatibili col mercato relative ai movimenti di capitale, il ricorso a esse dovrebbe essere ancora più cauto. Comunque, una gestione per (rara eccezione del tasso di cambio è certamente possibile.   I certainly agree with the authors on the main point, which is that flexible exchange rates do not result in an automatic adjustment that brings equilibrium with full employment. What I would argue is that flexible exchange rates, however, may be more advantageous than those fixed and that the management of the exchange rate to achieve domestic policy objectives, although useful in some circumstances, it should become the norm in a world in which financial events affect frequently on real variables.In my view, the intervention on the foreign exchange market by the central bank should have a low frequency and used as a signal to prevent upward or downward trend, which of course requires the cooperation and support from other banks central. With regard to the measures compatible with the market on the movement of capital, the use of them should be even more cautious. However, a management for (rare

  14. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sparkle L Malone

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO, water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2 exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013 from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1 except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1. Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  15. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) enhances CO2 exchange rates in freshwater Marsh ecosystems in the Florida everglades.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malone, Sparkle L; Staudhammer, Christina L; Oberbauer, Steven F; Olivas, Paulo; Ryan, Michael G; Schedlbauer, Jessica L; Loescher, Henry W; Starr, Gregory

    2014-01-01

    This research examines the relationships between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), water level, precipitation patterns and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange rates in the freshwater wetland ecosystems of the Florida Everglades. Data was obtained over a 5-year study period (2009-2013) from two freshwater marsh sites located in Everglades National Park that differ in hydrology. At the short-hydroperiod site (Taylor Slough; TS) and the long-hydroperiod site (Shark River Slough; SRS) fluctuations in precipitation patterns occurred with changes in ENSO phase, suggesting that extreme ENSO phases alter Everglades hydrology which is known to have a substantial influence on ecosystem carbon dynamics. Variations in both ENSO phase and annual net CO2 exchange rates co-occurred with changes in wet and dry season length and intensity. Combined with site-specific seasonality in CO2 exchanges rates, El Niño and La Niña phases magnified season intensity and CO2 exchange rates at both sites. At TS, net CO2 uptake rates were higher in the dry season, whereas SRS had greater rates of carbon sequestration during the wet season. As La Niña phases were concurrent with drought years and extended dry seasons, TS became a greater sink for CO2 on an annual basis (-11 to -110 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) compared to El Niño and neutral years (-5 to -43.5 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). SRS was a small source for CO2 annually (1.81 to 80 g CO2 m-2 yr-1) except in one exceptionally wet year that was associated with an El Niño phase (-16 g CO2 m-2 yr-1). Considering that future climate predictions suggest a higher frequency and intensity in El Niño and La Niña phases, these results indicate that changes in extreme ENSO phases will significantly alter CO2 dynamics in the Florida Everglades.

  16. Calculating constants of the rates of the reactions of excitation, ionization, and atomic exchange: A model of a shock oscillator with a change of the Hamiltonian of the system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsyganov, D. L.

    2017-11-01

    A new model for calculating the rates of reactions of excitation, ionization, and atomic exchange is proposed. Diatomic molecule AB is an unstructured particle M upon the exchange of elastic-vibrational (VT) energy, i.e., a model of a shock forceful oscillator with a change in Hamiltonian (SFOH). The SFOH model is based on the quantum theory of strong perturbations. The SFOH model allows generalization in simulating the rates of the reactions of excitation, ionization, and atomic exchange in the vibrational-vibrational (VV) energy exchange of diatomic molecules, and the exchange of VV- and VT-energy of polyatomic molecules. The rate constants of the excitation of metastables A 3Σ u +, B 3Π g , W 3Δ u , B'3Σ u -, a'3Σ u -, and the ionization of a nitrogen molecules from ground state X2Σ g + upon a collision with a heavy structureless particle (a nitrogen molecule), are found as examples.

  17. Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması Döviz Kuru Kanalı: Türkiye Örneği(Monetary Transmission Mechanism Exchange Rate Channel: The Case of Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Birgül CAMBAZOĞLU

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Monetary transmission mechanism used by monetary authorities in determining the relationship between real economy and monetary targets are fundamentally classified as traditional interest rate channel, other asset prices channel, expectations channel and credit channel. Exchange rate channel which is analyzed under the scope of other asset prices channel and effective on the net export volume, has gained importance through widespread use of flexible exchange rate system with the increase of globalization. In this study, the effectiveness of monetary transmission mechanism exchange rate channel on total output and price level is analyzed by using VAR model for Turkey which has adopted flexible exchange rate regime. As a result of the test with a total of five macroeconomic variables, short-run interest rate, real effective exchange rate, net export volume, consumer price index and industrial production index, for the period of 2003:01-2010:08, it is found that the exchange rate channel which includes the effects of interest rate channel is effective in Turkey.

  18. Estimation of time-dependent Hurst exponents with variational smoothing and application to forecasting foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcin, Matthieu

    2017-10-01

    Hurst exponents depict the long memory of a time series. For human-dependent phenomena, as in finance, this feature may vary in the time. It justifies modelling dynamics by multifractional Brownian motions, which are consistent with time-dependent Hurst exponents. We improve the existing literature on estimating time-dependent Hurst exponents by proposing a smooth estimate obtained by variational calculus. This method is very general and not restricted to the sole Hurst framework. It is globally more accurate and easier than other existing non-parametric estimation techniques. Besides, in the field of Hurst exponents, it makes it possible to make forecasts based on the estimated multifractional Brownian motion. The application to high-frequency foreign exchange markets (GBP, CHF, SEK, USD, CAD, AUD, JPY, CNY and SGD, all against EUR) shows significantly good forecasts. When the Hurst exponent is higher than 0.5, what depicts a long-memory feature, the accuracy is higher.

  19. Increased sodium/calcium exchanger activity enhances beta-adrenergic-mediated increase in heart rate: Whole-heart study in a homozygous sodium/calcium exchanger overexpressor mouse model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaese, Sven; Bögeholz, Nils; Pauls, Paul; Dechering, Dirk; Olligs, Jan; Kölker, Katharina; Badawi, Sascha; Frommeyer, Gerrit; Pott, Christian; Eckardt, Lars

    2017-08-01

    The cardiac sodium/calcium (Na(+)/Ca(2+)) exchanger (NCX) contributes to diastolic depolarization in cardiac pacemaker cells. Increased NCX activity has been found in heart failure and atrial fibrillation. The influence of increased NCX activity on resting heart rate, beta-adrenergic-mediated increase in heart rate, and cardiac conduction properties is unknown. The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of NCX overexpression in a homozygous transgenic whole-heart mouse model (NCX-OE) on sinus and AV nodal function. Langendorff-perfused, beating whole hearts of NCX-OE and the corresponding wild-type (WT) were studied ± isoproterenol (ISO; 0.2 μM). Epicardial ECG, AV nodal Wenckebach cycle length (AVN-WCL), and retrograde AVN-WCL were obtained. At baseline, basal heart rate was unaltered between NCX-OE and WT (WT: cycle length [CL] 177.6 ± 40.0 ms, no. of hearts [n] = 20; NCX-OE: CL 185.9 ± 30.5 ms, n = 18; P = .21). In the presence of ISO, NCX-OE exhibited a significantly higher heart rate compared to WT (WT: CL 133.4 ± 13.4 ms, n = 20; NCX-OE: CL 117.7 ± 14.2 ms, n = 18; P heart rate. Mechanistically, increased NCX inward mode activity may promote acceleration of diastolic depolarization in sinus nodal pacemaker cells, thus enhancing chronotropy in NCX-OE. These findings suggest a novel potential therapeutic target for heart rate control in the presence of increased NCX activity, such as heart failure. Copyright © 2017 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Backus-Smith puzzle and the European Union: It's not just the nominal exchange rate 1/Backus-Smith nedoumica i Europska unija: to nije samo nominalni valutni tecaj 1

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Predrag Petrovic

    2016-01-01

    ...) its background comprises both nominal exchange rate and inflation differential, and (c) empirical data rejects complete risk sharing assumption strongly and decisively, but this does not explain the Backus-Smith puzzle...

  1. Sample exchange by beam scanning with applications to noncollinear pump-probe spectroscopy at kilohertz repetition rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spencer, Austin P.; Hill, Robert J.; Peters, William K.; Baranov, Dmitry; Cho, Byungmoon; Huerta-Viga, Adriana; Carollo, Alexa R.; Curtis, Anna C.; Jonas, David M.

    2017-06-01

    In laser spectroscopy, high photon flux can perturb the sample away from thermal equilibrium, altering its spectroscopic properties. Here, we describe an optical beam scanning apparatus that minimizes repetitive sample excitation while providing shot-to-shot sample exchange for samples such as cryostats, films, and air-tight cuvettes. In this apparatus, the beam crossing point is moved within the focal plane inside the sample by scanning both tilt angles of a flat mirror. A space-filling spiral scan pattern was designed that efficiently utilizes the sample area and mirror scanning bandwidth. Scanning beams along a spiral path is shown to increase the average number of laser shots that can be sampled before a spot on the sample cell is resampled by the laser to ˜1700 (out of the maximum possible 2500 for the sample area and laser spot size) while ensuring minimal shot-to-shot spatial overlap. Both an all-refractive version and an all-reflective version of the apparatus are demonstrated. The beam scanning apparatus does not measurably alter the time delay (less than the 0.4 fs measurement uncertainty), the laser focal spot size (less than the 2 μ m measurement uncertainty), or the beam overlap (less than the 3.3% measurement uncertainty), leading to pump-probe and autocorrelation signal transients that accurately characterize the equilibrium sample.

  2. Preselection of recombinant gene integration sites enabling high transcription rates in CHO cells using alternate start codons and recombinase mediated cassette exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baumann, Martina; Gludovacz, Elisabeth; Sealover, Natalie; Bahr, Scott; George, Henry; Lin, Nan; Kayser, Kevin; Borth, Nicole

    2017-11-01

    Site-specific recombinase mediated cassette exchange (RMCE) enables the transfer of the gene of interest (GOI) into pre-selected genomic locations with defined expression properties. For the generation of recombinant production cell lines, this has the advantage that screening for high transcription rates at the genome integration site would be required only once, with the possibility to reuse the selected site for new products. Here, we describe a strategy that aims at the selection of transcriptionally active genome integration sites in Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells by using alternate start codons in the surface reporter protein CD4, in combination with FACS sorting for high expressers. The alternate start codon reduces the translation initiation efficiency and allows sorting for CHO cells with the highest transcription rates, while RMCE enables the subsequent exchange of the CD4 against the GOI. We have shown that sorted cell pools with the CD4 reporter gene containing the alternate start codon CTG lead to higher GFP signals and higher antibody titers upon RMCE as compared to cell pools containing the ATG start codon of the CD4 reporter. Despite the absence of any subcloning step, the final cell pool contained the CD4 gene in a single genome integration site. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Phenotypic plasticity of gas exchange pattern and water loss in Scarabaeus spretus (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae): deconstructing the basis for metabolic rate variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terblanche, John S; Clusella-Trullas, Susana; Chown, Steven L

    2010-09-01

    Investigation of gas exchange patterns and modulation of metabolism provide insight into metabolic control systems and evolution in diverse terrestrial environments. Variation in metabolic rate in response to environmental conditions has been explained largely in the context of two contrasting hypotheses, namely metabolic depression in response to stressful or resource-(e.g. water) limited conditions, or elevation of metabolism at low temperatures to sustain life in extreme conditions. To deconstruct the basis for metabolic rate changes in response to temperature variation, here we undertake a full factorial study investigating the longer- and short-term effects of temperature exposure on gas exchange patterns. We examined responses of traits of gas exchange [standard metabolic rate (SMR); discontinuous gas exchange (DGE) cycle frequency; cuticular, respiratory and total water loss rate (WLR)] to elucidate the magnitude and form of plastic responses in the dung beetle, Scarabaeus spretus. Results showed that short- and longer-term temperature variation generally have significant effects on SMR and WLR. Overall, acclimation to increased temperature led to a decline in SMR (from 0.071+/-0.004 ml CO(2) h(-1) in 15 degrees C-acclimated beetles to 0.039+/-0.004 ml CO(2) h(-1) in 25 degrees C-acclimated beetles measured at 20 degrees C) modulated by reduced DGE frequency (15 degrees C acclimation: 0.554+/-0.027 mHz, 20 degrees C acclimation: 0.257+/-0.030 mHz, 25 degrees C acclimation: 0.208+/-0.027 mHz recorded at 20 degrees C), reduced cuticular WLRs (from 1.058+/-0.537 mg h(-1) in 15 degrees C-acclimated beetles to 0.900+/-0.400 mg h(-1) in 25 degrees C-acclimated beetles measured at 20 degrees C) and reduced total WLR (from 4.2+/-0.5 mg h(-1) in 15 degrees C-acclimated beetles to 3.1+/-0.5 mg h(-1) in 25 degrees C-acclimated beetles measured at 25 degrees C). Respiratory WLR was reduced from 2.25+/-0.40 mg h(-1) in 15 degrees C-acclimated beetles to 1.60+/-0.40 mg h

  4. Kinetic parameters, collision rates, energy exchanges and transport coefficients of non-thermal electrons in premixed flames at sub-breakdown electric field strengths

    KAUST Repository

    Bisetti, Fabrizio

    2014-01-02

    The effects of an electric field on the collision rates, energy exchanges and transport properties of electrons in premixed flames are investigated via solutions to the Boltzmann kinetic equation. The case of high electric field strength, which results in high-energy, non-thermal electrons, is analysed in detail at sub-breakdown conditions. The rates of inelastic collisions and the energy exchange between electrons and neutrals in the reaction zone of the flame are characterised quantitatively. The analysis includes attachment, ionisation, impact dissociation, and vibrational and electronic excitation processes. Our results suggest that Townsend breakdown occurs for E/N = 140 Td. Vibrational excitation is the dominant process up to breakdown, despite important rates of electronic excitation of CO, CO2 and N2 as well as impact dissociation of O2 being apparent from 50 Td onwards. Ohmic heating in the reaction zone is found to be negligible (less than 2% of peak heat release rate) up to breakdown field strengths for realistic electron densities equal to 1010 cm-3. The observed trends are largely independent of equivalence ratio. In the non-thermal regime, electron transport coefficients are insensitive to mixture composition and approximately constant across the flame, but are highly dependent on the electric field strength. In the thermal limit, kinetic parameters and transport coefficients vary substantially across the flame due to the spatially inhomogeneous concentration of water vapour. A practical approach for identifying the plasma regime (thermal versus non-thermal) in studies of electric field effects on flames is proposed. © 2014 Taylor & Francis.

  5. Genetic inhibition of Na+-Ca2+ exchanger current disables fight or flight sinoatrial node activity without affecting resting heart rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhan; Rasmussen, Tyler P; Li, Yue; Kutschke, William; Koval, Olha M; Wu, Yiming; Wu, Yuejin; Hall, Duane D; Joiner, Mei-ling A; Wu, Xiang-Qiong; Swaminathan, Paari D; Purohit, Anil; Zimmerman, Kathy; Weiss, Robert M; Philipson, Kenneth D; Song, Long-sheng; Hund, Thomas J; Anderson, Mark E

    2013-01-18

    The sodium-calcium exchanger 1 (NCX1) is predominantly expressed in the heart and is implicated in controlling automaticity in isolated sinoatrial node (SAN) pacemaker cells, but the potential role of NCX1 in determining heart rate in vivo is unknown. To determine the role of Ncx1 in heart rate. We used global myocardial and SAN-targeted conditional Ncx1 knockout (Ncx1(-/-)) mice to measure the effect of the NCX current on pacemaking activity in vivo, ex vivo, and in isolated SAN cells. We induced conditional Ncx1(-/-) using a Cre/loxP system. Unexpectedly, in vivo and ex vivo hearts and isolated SAN cells showed that basal rates in Ncx1(-/-) (retaining ≈20% of control level NCX current) and control mice were similar, suggesting that physiological NCX1 expression is not required for determining resting heart rate. However, increases in heart rate and SAN cell automaticity in response to isoproterenol or the dihydropyridine Ca(2+) channel agonist BayK8644 were significantly blunted or eliminated in Ncx1(-/-) mice, indicating that NCX1 is important for fight or flight heart rate responses. In contrast, the pacemaker current and L-type Ca(2+) currents were equivalent in control and Ncx1(-/-) SAN cells under resting and isoproterenol-stimulated conditions. Ivabradine, a pacemaker current antagonist with clinical efficacy, reduced basal SAN cell automaticity similarly in control and Ncx1(-/-) mice. However, ivabradine decreased automaticity in SAN cells isolated from Ncx1(-/-) mice more effectively than in control SAN cells after isoproterenol, suggesting that the importance of NCX current in fight or flight rate increases is enhanced after pacemaker current inhibition. Physiological Ncx1 expression is required for increasing sinus rates in vivo, ex vivo, and in isolated SAN cells, but not for maintaining resting heart rate.

  6. Squilibri finanziari, cambio del dollaro e politica monetaria internazionale. (Financial imbalances, the dollar exchange rate and international monetary policy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. TRIFFIN

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available L'aumento continuo e spettacolare del dollaro sul mercato globale dei cambi, nonostante l'altrettanto spettacolare disavanzo delle partite correnti della bilancia dei pagamenti, è una cosa che nessun economista avrebbe sognato . Tutti saranno d'accordo che la risposta al puzzle sta nel fatto che le operazioni in conto corrente costituiscono ormai solo una piccola parte dei movimenti valutari lordi,  dominata di fattop da movimenti di capitali. Ciò che deve essere spiegato  allora è l'enorme volume di capitale netto totale che finanzia il deficit. Il presente lavoro considera questo paradosso, il ruolo del dollaro nel sistema monetario mondiale e le prospettive a medio e lungo termine per il sistema finanziario mondiale.The continuous and spectacular rise of the dollar on the global foreign exchange market, despite the equally spectacular current account deficit of the U.S. balance of payments, is something that no economist would have dreamed to be possible. Everyone will agree that the answer to the puzzle lies in the fact that the transactions in the current account now constitute only a small part of the gross currency movements, in fact dominated by capital movements. What needs to be explained then is the sheer volume of the total net capital that finances the deficit. The present work considers this paradox, the dollar’s role in the world monetary system and medium and long-term perspectives for the world financial system.JEL: E52, F31, E42,

  7. The Use of Water Exchange for Feeding Rate and Growth Promotion of Shortfin Eel Anguilla bicolor bicolor In Recirculating Water System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taufiq-Spj, N.; Sunaryo, S.; Wirasatriya, A.; Sugianto, D. N.

    2017-02-01

    The shortage of eel’s seed Anguilla spp. and it’s consumption size will induce the hunting of this species. Thus, stocks are critically endangered. Central Java have two indigenious species i.e. A. marmorata and A. bicolor bicolor. These two species will be endanger if management of stock do not conduct properly. The use of water exchange by replacing water volume for feeding rate and growth promotion of Indonesian shortfin eel A. bicolor bicolor in RWS will at least give a basic information in appropriate aquaculture systems and as a part of disaster mitigation of indegenious species extinction. The study used 3 replications and 3 treatments of water exchange, i.e. T1: 50, T2: 100, and T3: 200 % of water removed d-1. The fish were fed with approx. 2.2% dry basis of formulated feed. Tanks with volume of 1 m3 contain a density of approx. 20 kg seed stock of shortfin eel fingerlink size per m3 water in RSW. The result shows that feeding rate among treatments are significantly different (α < 0.001), where T1= 1.62±0.23% d-1, T2 = 1.89±0.06% d-1 and T3 = 1.99±0.06% d-1. Individual and Biomass weight gain increase (IWG: T1= 0.039±0.003, T2= 0.050±0.001, T3= 0.076±0.002 kg and BWG: T1= 7.087±0.443, T2 = 11.051±0.894, T3= 19.722±0.831 kg respectively) by increasing water exchange (α < 0.001). Meanwhile the absolute growth was found higher in individual (IAG) compare to biomass (BAG) and both of them increase by increasing water exchange (α < 0.001). Where for IAG: T1= 55.42±3.69, T2= 71.02±2.40, T3= 106.12±1.98% and BAG: T1= 35.11±1.13, T2= 52.94±6.17, T3= 90.77±3.14% respectively.

  8. 76 FR 26549 - Removal of Certain References to Credit Ratings Under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-06

    ...); and Asset class-specific factors (e.g., in the case of structured finance products, the quality of the.... of Finance 1431, 1433, n.5 (1994) (noting that ``issuers with the lowest ratings find that they... derivatives-related credit risk. \\39\\ As a condition of approval, applicants must maintain an ``early warning...

  9. Loss of the AE3 Cl-/HCO3- exchanger in mice affects rate-dependent inotropy and stress-related AKT signaling in heart

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vikram ePrasad

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Cl-/HCO3- exchangers are expressed abundantly in cardiac muscle, suggesting that HCO3- extrusion serves an important function in heart. Mice lacking Anion Exchanger Isoform 3 (AE3, a major cardiac Cl-/HCO3- exchanger, appear healthy, but loss of AE3 causes decompensation in a hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM model. Using intra-ventricular pressure analysis, in vivo pacing, and molecular studies we identified physiological and biochemical changes caused by loss of AE3 that may contribute to decompensation in HCM. AE3-null mice had normal cardiac contractility under basal conditions and after -adrenergic stimulation, but pacing of hearts revealed that frequency-dependent inotropy was blunted, suggesting that AE3-mediated HCO3- extrusion is required for a robust force-frequency response (FFR during acute biomechanical stress in vivo. Modest changes in expression of proteins that affect Ca2+-handling were observed, but Ca2+-transient analysis of AE3-null myocytes showed normal twitch-amplitude and Ca2+-clearance. Phosphorylation and expression of several proteins implicated in HCM and FFR, including phospholamban, myosin binding protein C, and troponin I were not altered in hearts of paced AE3-null mice; however, phosphorylation of Akt, which plays a central role in mechanosensory signaling, was significantly higher in paced AE3-null hearts than in wild-type controls and phosphorylation of AMPK, which is affected by Akt and is involved in energy metabolism and some cases of HCM, was reduced. These data show loss of AE3 leads to impaired rate-dependent inotropy, appears to affect mechanical stress-responsive signaling, and reduces activation of AMPK, which may contribute to decompensation in heart failure.

  10. Cation-exchange induced high power electrochemical properties of core-shell Ni(OH){sub 2} rate at CoOOH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Weihua [College of Chemistry and Molecular Science, Wuhan University, 430072 Wuhan (China); Department of Chemistry, Zhengzhou University, 450001 Zhengzhou (China); Yang, Yifu; Shao, Huixia [College of Chemistry and Molecular Science, Wuhan University, 430072 Wuhan (China)

    2011-01-01

    New applications such as hybrid electric vehicles and power backup require rechargeable batteries to combine high energy density with high charge and discharge rate capability. In this study, the core-shell Ni(OH){sub 2} rate at CoOOH composite is constructed via a simple cation-exchange route at moderate conditions. X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy dispersive X-ray (EDX), and inductively coupled plasma (ICP) are used to characterize the resulting Ni(OH){sub 2} rate at CoOOH composites. The Ni(OH){sub 2} rate at CoOOH electrode exhibits high power, higher capacity and longer life cycle when it is chosen as an positive electrode material for rechargeable alkaline MH-Ni battery. The enhanced electrochemical performance is attributed to the seamless combination of the CoOOH shell and the Ni(OH){sub 2} core, avoiding the contact resistance between them at a large current density. It is believed that our methodology provides a simple and environment friendly route to a variety of core-shell materials with different composition and novel function. (author)

  11. The effects of exchange rate on balance trade and on monetary aggregates of macedonia and the impact of the current world crisis in its economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mr.Sc. Kadishe Limani

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Macedonia is a country that is close related to the European Union countries where the majority of the Macedonian foreign trade is with the European Union countries (52%. So the Macedonian economy is in a high level dependency of Euro.  Since Denar is connected closely to Euro, and the level of its usage in everyday economic activity is close to the usage of Denar, it is obvious to be discussed as a dilemma whether Macedonia should have Euro as its currency. However, the problem lies in that whether it is the right time for such action as the best solution for Macedonian economy, keeping in mind the fact that in the international arena there is present a second crisis that is the crisis of Euro-Zone. Based on various sources and on our econometric results, in this paper is argued and supported the main hypothesis that the fix exchange rate for Macedonia is a more optimal choice in comparison with the unilateral euroisation and flexible exchange rate. Thus, during the research we found out some arguments that support the existing regime, such as: under a flexible regime an eventual devaluation of the Denar is more possible, which can lead to more negative effects on the economy than benefits. Thus, devaluation of the Denar will have no significant effects on the balance trade (export and imports and GDP. This means that the competitiveness of a country relies on the other factors. In addition an eventual devaluation of the Denar, it will not have significant effects on monetary aggregates (M2 and M4 due to the asset substitution from Denar deposits to foreign deposits and vice-versa.

  12. Indoor air quality, air exchange rates, and radioactivity in new built temporary houses following the Great East Japan Earthquake in Minamisoma, Fukushima.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, N; Tokumura, M; Kazama, M; Yoshino, H; Ochiai, S; Mizukoshi, A

    2013-08-01

    This study measured air exchange rates, indoor concentrations of aldehydes and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), and radioactivity levels at 19 temporary houses in different temporary housing estate constructed in Minamisoma City following the Great East Japan Earthquake. The 19 surveyed houses represented all of the companies assigned to construct temporary houses in that Minamisoma City. Data were collected shortly after construction and before occupation, from August 2011 to January 2012. Mean air exchange rates in the temporary houses were 0.28/h, with no variation according to housing types and construction date. Mean indoor concentrations of formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, toluene, ethylbenzene, m/p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, p-dichlorobenzene, tetradecane, and total VOCs (TVOCs) were 29.2, 72.7, 14.6, 6.35, 3.05, 1.81, 7.29, 14.3, 8.32, and 901 μg/m(3), respectively. The levels of acetaldehyde and TVOCs exceeded the indoor guideline (48 μg/m(3)) and interim target (400 μg/m(3)) in more than half of the 31 rooms tested. In addition to guideline chemicals, terpenes (α-pinene and d-limonene) and acetic esters (butyl acetate and ethyl acetate) were often detected in these houses. The indoor radiation levels measured by a Geiger-Müller tube (Mean: 0.22 μSv/h) were lower than those recorded outdoors (Mean: 0.42 μSv/h), although the shielding effect of the houses was less than for other types of buildings. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  13. Sick building syndrome in relation to air exchange rate, CO(2), room temperature and relative air humidity in university computer classrooms: an experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbäck, Dan; Nordström, Klas

    2008-10-01

    To study the effects of ventilation and temperature changes in computer classrooms on symptoms in students. Technical university students participated in a blinded study. Two classrooms had higher air exchange (4.1-5.2 ac/h); two others had lower (2.3-2.6 ac/h) air exchange. After 1 week, ventilation conditions were interchanged between the rooms. The students reported symptoms during the last hour, on a seven-step rating scale. Room temperature, relative air humidity (RH) carbon dioxide (CO(2)), PM10 and ultra-fine particles (UFP) were measured simultaneously (1 h). Illumination, air velocity, operative temperature, supply air temperature, formaldehyde, NO(2) and O(3) were measured. Multiple logistic regression was applied in cross-sectional analysis of the first answer (N = 355). Those participating twice (N = 121) were analysed longitudinally. Totally 31% were females, 2.9% smokers and 3.8% had asthma. Mean CO(2) was 993 ppm (674-1,450 ppm), temperature 22.7 degrees C (20-25 degrees C) and RH 24% (19-35%). Lower and higher air exchange rates corresponded to a personal outdoor airflow of 7 l/s*p and 10-13 L/s*P, respectively. Mean PM10 was 20 microg/m(3) at lower and 15 microg/m(3) at higher ventilation flow. Ocular, nasal and throat symptoms, breathlessness, headache and tiredness were significantly more common at higher CO(2) and temperature. After mutual adjustment, ocular (OR = 1.52 per 1 degrees C), nasal (OR = 1.62 per 1 degrees C) and throat symptoms (OR = 1.53 per 1 degrees C), headache (OR = 1.51 per 1 degrees C) and tiredness (OR = 1.54 per 1 degrees C) were significantly associated with temperature; headache was associated only with CO(2) (OR = 1.19 per 100 ppm CO(2)). Longitudinal analysis demonstrated that increased room temperature was related to tiredness (P < 0.05). Computer classrooms may have CO(2) above 1,000 ppm and temperatures above 22 degrees C. Increased temperature and CO(2) may affect mucosal membrane symptoms, headaches and tiredness

  14. The effect of ambient humidity and metabolic rate on the gas-exchange pattern of the semi-aquatic insect Aquarius remigis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Contreras, Heidy L; Bradley, Timothy J

    2011-04-01

    We have examined the effects of temperature on metabolic rate and respiratory pattern in the water strider Aquarius remigis. As temperature was increased from 10 to 30°C, the metabolic rate of the insects increased and the respiratory pattern transitioned from discontinuous, to cyclic, to continuous. The discontinuous gas-exchange cycle (DGC) was observed even in insects standing on water when the respirometry chamber was being perfused with humid (>95% relative humidity) air. Comparisons of insects at 20°C in humid and dry air showed no statistically significant differences in metabolic rate or respiratory pattern (P>0.05). The proportion of time that the spiracles were closed was greater at 10°C than at 20°C (Ppatterns of insects are determined by the relationship between oxygen supply and oxygen demand. There was no evidence in this insect that humidity had any effect on the respiratory pattern. The results are discussed in the context of the ongoing discussion in the literature of the origin, maintenance and adaptive significance of the DGC in insects.

  15. Barter exchanges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sudzina, Frantisek

    Although barter is often perceived as something that proceeded money, barter is still used. The focus of the paper is on barter exchanges. Barter exchanges are used both in developing countries as well as in developed countries (including the U.S.). They are used by both organizations...... and individuals. They usually allow to exchange good but some include also services. Some exchanges allow only for bi-directional barter, i.e. when only two parties are involved in the exchange. But probably most of the barter exchanges use barter money; this makes it easier to exchange goods and services...

  16. Influence of River Rating Curves Interpolation Methods on In-stream Water Level Assessment and Stream-aquifer Exchanges in a Regional Distributed Hydro(Geo)logical Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh, F.; Flipo, N.; de Fouquet, C.; Ducharne, A.; Oudin, L.; Habets, F.; Ledoux, E.

    2011-12-01

    The main objective of this study is to provide a realistic simulation of river stage in regional river networks in order to improve the quantification of stream-aquifer exchanges. The study focuses on the Oise basin (4 500 km2, part of the 65 000 km2-Seine basin in Northern France) where two original methodologies of rating curves estimations are proposed. The general framework is the distributed model Eau-Dyssée, which couples existing specialized models to address water resources in river basins. In particular, it simulates flow in aquifer units with a finite difference pseudo 3D model and river flow with a Muskingum model. Rating curves are used in the regional distributed hydro(geo)logical model to deduce river stage from the routed discharge, which permits to calculate the exchanges between aquifer units and rivers. The first methodology, which was already validated in the Oise basin, is based on simulating the main rivers with a 1D Saint-Venant model, from which functional stage-discharge relationships, or rating curves, are derived at a 200-m resolution and projected onto each 1-km grid-cell of the regional model. Such method can only be developed on well instrumented basins. In order to estimate river height on most basins (even those where the St Venant approach is not valid or cannot be set up due to lack of data), a second methodology is developed using data calculated with models at lower resolution (≥ 500 m): Rating curves at each center of the river network at regional scale are thus interpolated, based on a segmentation of the space compatible with the hydraulics and the regional model. This second methodology has been carried out over half the Seine basin river network, and the aim of the study is to validate it in the Oise basin with regards to the results of the first one. Assessed by the first method, average stream-aquifer exchanges are 39 mm.yr-1 for aquifer to streams fluxes and 2 mm.yr-1 for streams to aquifer fluxes, mainly due to storage

  17. Carboxylate ligands drastically enhance the rates of oxo exchange and hydrogen peroxide disproportionation by oxo manganese compounds of potential biological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, Lionel; Pécaut, Jacques; Charlot, Marie-France; Baffert, Carole; Collomb, Marie-Noëlle; Deronzier, Alain; Latour, Jean-Marc

    2008-01-01

    To mimic the carboxylate-rich active site of the manganese catalases more closely we introduced carboxylate groups into dimanganese complexes in place of nitrogen ligands. The series of dimanganese(III,IV) complexes of tripodal ligands [Mn(2)(L)(2)(O)(2)](3+/+/-/3-) was extended from those of tpa (1) and H(bpg) (2) to those of H(2)(pda) (3) and H(3)(nta) (4) (tpa=tris-picolylamine, H(bpg)=bis-picolylglycylamine, H(2)(pda)=picolyldiglycylamine, H(3)(nta)=nitrilotriacetic acid). While 3 [Mn(2)(pda)(2)(O)(2)][Na(H(2)O)(3)] could be synthesized at -20 degrees C and characterized in the solid state, 4 [Mn(2)(nta)(2)(O)(2)](3-) could be obtained and studied only in solution at -60 degrees C. A new synthetic procedure for the dimanganese(III,III) complexes was devised, using stoichiometric reduction of the dimanganese(III,IV) precursor by the benzil radical with EPR monitoring. This enabled the preparation of the parent dimanganese(III,III) complex 5 [Mn(2)(tpa)(2)(O)(2)](ClO(4))(2), which was structurally characterized. The UV/visible, IR, EPR, magnetic, and electrochemical properties of complexes 1-3 and 5 were analyzed to assess the electronic changes brought about by the carboxylate replacement of pyridine ligands. The kinetics of the oxo ligand exchanges with labeled water was examined in acetonitrile solution. A dramatic effect of the number of carboxylates was evidenced. Interestingly, the influence of the second carboxylate substitution differs from that of the first one probably because this substitution occurs on an out-of-plane coordination while the former occurs in the plane of the [Mn(2)O(2)] core. Indeed, on going from 1 to 3 the exchange rate was increased by a factor of 50. Addition of triethylamine caused a rate increase for 1, but not for 3. The abilities of 1-3 to disproportionate H(2)O(2) were assessed volumetrically. The disproportionation exhibited a sensitivity corresponding to the carboxylate substitution. These observations strongly suggest that

  18. The immediate impact of semen diluent and rate of dilution on the sperm quality index, ATP utilization, gas exchange, and ionic balance of broiler breeder sperm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, H M; McDaniel, C D

    2006-01-01

    The sperm quality index (SQI) is a tool used to predict overall rooster semen quality, fertility, and hatchability. However, semen must be diluted before SQI analysis, and research has shown that the SQI is most predictive of fertility at lower semen dilutions. Therefore, the present study was undertaken to determine why the SQI is not as predictive of fertility at higher semen dilutions and whether semen diluent type alters the SQI, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) utilization, gas exchange, and ionic balance of broiler breeder sperm. Semen was diluted with saline, seminal plasma, or minimum essential medium (MEM) from 2- to 200-fold. The following parameters were measured for each diluent type at each dilution: SQI, ATP, Na+, Ca2+, K+, Cl-, CO2, and O2. To examine the rate of sperm motility, the SQI was expressed as SQI/million sperm per mL (SQI/sperm). There was an interaction between diluent type and dilution for the SQI, SQI/sperm, CO2 generated, O2 used, as well as Na+, Ca2+, and K+ internalization. For sperm diluted with saline, the SQI declined more rapidly with increasing dilution. However, SQI/sperm increased rapidly when semen was diluted with MEM or SP. Sperm diluted in SP used ATP with increasing dilution whereas sperm diluted with saline and MEM generated ATP. Neat semen contained no free O2; however, each diluent type contained abundant O2 resulting in more O2 available as semen was diluted. Sperm diluted in SP produced more CO2 and used more O2 than semen diluted in saline or MEM. For SQI/sperm, ATP and CO2 generated, as well as Na+ and Ca2+ internalization, differences between diluent types occurred when semen was diluted 50-fold and greater. In conclusion, it appears that sperm motility, ATP utilization, gas exchange, and ionic balance are altered by diluent type and rate of dilution. These alterations in semen quality are exacerbated at semen dilutions of 50-fold and greater yielding an SQI that is not indicative of sperm motility or fertility.

  19. 210Po and 210Pb distribution, dissolved-particulate exchange rates, and particulate export along the North Atlantic US GEOTRACES GA03 section

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rigaud, S.; Stewart, G.; Baskaran, M.; Marsan, D.; Church, T.

    2015-06-01

    Vertical profiles of 210Po and 210Pb in the water column were measured in the dissolved phase (51 μm) particles at seven stations along the US GEOTRACES North Atlantic Zonal Transect (GA03). Mass balance calculations were employed to assess nuclide exchange rates at the dissolved-small particle interface and between small and large particles, and to quantify export with settling large particles. In the surface ocean, 210Po scavenging is linearly correlated with the concentration of particulate organic carbon (POC) in large particles, supporting the role of biogenic particle in 210Po bioaccumulation and export. In stations near the coast, this link is more complex due to the variable source of biogenic material and temporal changes in the surface biogeochemical and physical conditions. At depth, 210Po exhibits significant widespread deficit with respect to 210Pb that could in part be attributed to in situ 210Po scavenging and may be related to surface biological productivity. As previously reported the 210Pb scavenging rates in the surface ocean were higher at ocean margins. At depth, 210Pb scavenging increases with depth and eastward due to the increase of adsorption sites available in the benthic layers and to a regional contribution of benthic 210Pb scavenging and/or particle flux, respectively. The benthic nepheloid layer (BNL) and the Hydrothermal TAG plume distinctly enhance 210Pb scavenging due to increased surface adsorption in association with resuspended or freshly formed particles. In contrast, 210Po is not seen to be significantly scavenged in these environments due to its relatively short half-life and the long residence time of particles.

  20. Integrated foreign exchange risk management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom; Høg, Esben; Kuhn, Jochen

    2010-01-01

    Empirical research has focused on export as a proxy for exchange rate exposure and the use of foreign exchange derivatives as an instrument to deal with this exposure. This empirical study applies an integrated foreign exchange risk management approach with a particular focus on the role of impor...