WorldWideScience

Sample records for exchange rates growth

  1. Effective Exchange Rate Classifications and Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Justin M. Dubas; Byung-Joo Lee; Nelson C. Mark

    2005-01-01

    We propose an econometric procedure for obtaining de facto exchange rate regime classifications which we apply to study the relationship between exchange rate regimes and economic growth. Our classification method models the de jure regimes as outcomes of a multinomial logit choice problem conditional on the volatility of a country's effective exchange rate, a bilateral exchange rate and international reserves. An `effective' de facto exchange rate regime classification is then obtained by as...

  2. Exchange-rate regimes and economic growth: An empirical evaluation

    OpenAIRE

    Simón Sosvilla-Rivero; María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera

    2014-01-01

    Based on a dataset of 123 economies, this paper empirically investigates the relation between exchange-rate regimes and economic growth. We find that growth performance is best under intermediate exchange rate regimes, while the smallest growth rates are associated with flexible exchange rates. Nevertheless, this conclusion is tempered when we analyze the countries by income level: even though countries that adopt intermediate exchange-rate regimes are characterized by higher economic growth,...

  3. Exchange Rate Fluctuation and the Nigeria Economic Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lawal Adedoyin Isola

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on economic growth in Nigeria within the context of four profound theories: purchasing power parity; monetary model of exchange rates; the portfolio balance approach; and the optimal currency area theory. Data was collected from the CBN statistical bulletin in Nigeria from 2003– 2013and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL model was employed to estimate the model. In the model, real GDP (RGDP was used as the proxy for economic growth while Inflation rate (IF, Exchange rate (EXC, Interest rate (INT and Money Supply(M2 as proxies for other macroeconomic variables. The empirical results show that exchange rate fluctuation has no effect on economic growth in the long run though a short run relationship exist between the two. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that the Central bank for policy purposes should ensure that stern foreign exchange control policies are put in place in order to help in appropriate determination of the value of the exchange rate. This will in the long run help to strengthen the value of the Naira.

  4. Exchange-Driven Growth with Birth Rate Less Than Death

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhenquan; Ye Gaoxiang; Ke Jianhong

    2005-01-01

    We further study the kinetic behavior of the exchange-driven growth with birth and death for the case of birth rate kernel being less than that of death based on the mean-field theory. The symmetric exchange rate kernel is K(k,j) = K'(k,j) = Ikj υ , and the birth and death rates are proportional to the aggregate's size. The long time asymptotic behavior of the aggregate size distribution a k (t) is found to obey a much unusual scaling law with an exponentially growing scaling function Φ(x) = exp (x).

  5. EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH. THE CASE OF ROMANIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Ghiba

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Considering the difficulties created by the economic crisis, many exporters have criticized the National Bank of Romania (NBR’s policy regarding the exchange rate evolution. They argue that depreciation is a necessary condition for recovery and not financial stability. On the contrary, Romania cannot afford a shock in the exchange rate level. The risk associated with such a measure is too high for an emerging country and it annihilates any export competitive advantages. Therefore, depreciation may delay the imperative of Romanian economic recovery. A solid economic recovery should have as starting point a financial system sound and stable. Excessive exchange rate depreciation jeopardizes the financial soundness of banks and the borrower’s ability to repay their loans. Therefore, it creates inflationary flare-ups, particularly dangerous for the economy of any state.

  6. A panel data investigation of real exchange rate misalignment and growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flávio Vilela Vieira

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the role of real exchange rate misalignment on long-run growth for a set of ninety countries using time series data from 1980 to 2004. We first estimate a panel data model (fixed and random effects for the real exchange rate in order to produce estimates of the equilibrium real exchange rate and this is then used to construct measures of real exchange rate misalignment. We provide an alternative set of estimates of RER misalignment using panel cointegration methods. The results for the two-step System GMM panel growth models indicate that the coefficients for real exchange rate misalignment are positive for different model specification and samples, which means that a more depreciated (appreciated real exchange rate helps (harms long-run growth. The estimated coefficients are higher for developing and emerging countries.

  7. Real exchange rate behaviour and economic growth: evidence from Sierra Leone

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abu Tarawalie

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of this paper is to examine the impact of the real effective exchange rate on economic growth in Sierra Leone. First an analytical framework is developed to identify the determinants of the real effective exchange rate. Using quarterly data and employing recent econometric techniques, the relationship between the real effective exchange rate and economic growth is then investigated. A bivariate Granger causality test was also employed as part of the methodology to examine the causal relationship between the real exchange rate and economic growth. The empirical results suggest that the real effective exchange rate correlates positively with economic growth, with a statistically significant coefficient. The results also indicate that monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in the long run, and evidence of the real effective exchange rate causing economic growth was profound. In addition, the results showed that terms of trade, exchange rate devaluation, investment to GDP ratio and an excessive supply of domestic credit were the main determinants of the real exchange rate in Sierra Leone.

  8. Real exchange rate behaviour and non-oil export growth in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study analyses the effects of real exchange rate behaviour in terms of misalignment and volatility, on the growth of non-oil exports in Nigeria. It employs two alternative measures of real exchange rate misalignment, one based on deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the other on a model estimate of ...

  9. Exchange Rate Volatility and Employment Growth in Developing Countries: Evidence from Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Demir, Firat

    2010-01-01

    Employing a unique panel of 691 private firms that accounted for 26% of total value-added in manufacturing in Turkey, the paper explores the impacts of exchange rate volatility on employment growth during the period of 1983 - 2005. The empirical analysis using a variety of specifications, estimation techniques, and robustness tests suggests that exchange rate volatility has a statistically and economically significant employment growth reducing effect on manufacturing firms. Using point estim...

  10. Export incentives, exchange rate policy and export growth in Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.; Arslan, I.

    1993-01-01

    The driving forces behind the Turkish export miracle, and in fact its very existence, have remained a matter of debate We show there was a boom. As to contributing factors, import growth in the Middle East in excess of import growth elsewhere made a negative contribution. On exports to non-oil

  11. Capital accumulation, structural change and real exchange rate in a Keynesian-Structuralist growth model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oreiro José Luis

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to show at theoretical level that maintaining a competitive real exchange rate positively affects the economic growth of developing countries by means of a Keynesian-Structuralist model that combines elements of Kaleckian growth models with the balance of payments constrained growth models pioneered developed by Thirlwall. In this setting, the level of real exchange rate is capable, due to its effect over capital accumulation, to induce a structural change in the economy, making endogenous income elasticities of exports and imports. For reasonable parameter values it is shown that in steady-state growth there is two long-run equilibrium values for real exchange rate, one that corresponds to an under-valued currency and another that corresponds to an over-valued currency. If monetary authorities run exchange rate policy in order to target a competitive level for real exchange rate, than under-valued equilibrium is stable and the economy will show a high growth rate in the long-run.

  12. Investigating the asymmetric relationship between inflation-output growth exchange rate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jenq Fei; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    The relationship between inflation-output growth or output variation has long been studied. In this study, we extend the investigation under two exchange rate flexibility/regime in four Asian countries (Indonesia, Korea, Philippines and Thailand) that have experienced drastic exchange rate regime changes aftermath the financial crisis of 1997. These countries have switched from fixed/rigid exchange rate regime to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting (IT) regime after the crisis. Our main objective is to compare the inflation-output trade-off relationship in the pre-IT and post-IT periods as a tool to evaluate the efficiency of monetary policy. A nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes (increases and decreases). The data ranging from 1981M1 onwards till 2016M3. Our results show that exchange rate has asymmetric effect on inflation both short-run and long-run with larger impact in the post-IT period under flexible regime. Depreciation of exchange rate has leads to higher inflation. Furthermore, we find evidences on the relationship between inflation and growth in both short-run and long-run, but the trade-off only detected in the short run both in the pre- and post-IT periods.

  13. Implications Of Foreign Direct Investment, Financial Development And Real Exchange Rate For Economic Growth In Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang Achamoh

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper assesses the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI, financial development and real exchange rate (RER on economic growth in Cameroon using Cameroon’s annual time series data spanning the period 1977 - 2010. To address these objectives, residual based Engle-Granger test, the OLS based Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL bound testing and maximum likelihood based Johansen cointegration techniques are employed. Results of Unit roots tests show that all the series possessed unit roots at level or first difference form. The ARDL model and VECM results reveal that the RER has a significant negative effect on economic growth, while FDI and Financial Development relate positively to economic growth. These findings have implications for stimulating economic growth by increasing efficiency of the financial sector in allocating credit to the private sector and preventing real exchange rate appreciation in the shortrun.

  14. Economic Growth, Exchange Rate and Constrained Competiveness of the Tourism Sector in Andalucía

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nasir Muhammad Ali

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the relationship between tourism and economic growth, analyzing key factors affecting tourism income in Andalucía, Spain. Based on time series annual data for the period 2005 to 2012 and a multiple regression analysis we show that international tourism has made an important contribution to Andalucía’s economic growth. Some of the factors considered in the analysis include the number of luxury hotels, the hotel price index and the exchange rate, though the latter is outside of the control of local authorities under the European Monetary Union (EMU.

  15. The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Ehimare OMANKHANLEN

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available This study is on the effect of exchange rate and inflation on foreign direct investment and its relationship with economic growth. Its main objective is to find the effect of inflation and exchange rate and the bidirectional influences between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. A thirty year period was studied. A linear regression analysis was used on the thirty year data to determine the relationship between inflation, exchange rate, FDI inflows and economic growth. The study reveals that FDI follow economic growth occasioned by trade openness which saw the entry of some major companies especially the telecommunication companies, while Inflation has no effect on FDI. However exchange rate has effect on FDI.

  16. Real exchange rate misalignments

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.; Valladares, Frederico Estrella Carneiro

    2003-01-01

    This paper characterizes episodes of real appreciations and depreciations for a sample of 85 countries, approximately from 1960 to 1998. First, the equilibrium real exchange rate series are constructed for each country using Goldfajn and Valdes (1999) methodology (cointegration with fundamentals). Then, departures from equilibrium real exchange rate (misalignments) are obtained, and a Markov Switching Model is used to characterize the misalignments series as stochastic autor...

  17. Basic Exchange Rate Theories

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.G.M. van Marrewijk (Charles)

    2005-01-01

    textabstractThis four-chapter overview of basic exchange rate theories discusses (i) the elasticity and absorption approach, (ii) the (long-run) implications of the monetary approach, (iii) the short-run effects of monetary and fiscal policy under various economic conditions, and (iv) the transition

  18. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study found that a long-run relationship exists between the industrial productivity growth rate, ration of industrial production to gross domestic product, exchange rate, interest rate and terms of trade, and that exchange rate deregulation has significant impact on industrial performance. In order to determine the short term ...

  19. Automated exchange transfusion and exchange rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funato, M; Shimada, S; Tamai, H; Taki, H; Yoshioka, Y

    1989-10-01

    An automated blood exchange transfusion (BET) with a two-site technique has been devised by Goldmann et al and by us, using an infusion pump. With this method, we successfully performed exchange transfusions 189 times in the past four years on 110 infants with birth weights ranging from 530 g to 4,000 g. The exchange rate by the automated method was compared with the rate by Diamond's method. Serum bilirubin (SB) levels before and after BET and the maximal SB rebound within 24 hours after BET were: 21.6 +/- 2.4, 11.5 +/- 2.2, and 15.0 +/- 1.5 mg/dl in the automated method, and 22.0 +/- 2.9, 11.2 +/- 2.5, and 17.7 +/- 3.2 mg/dl in Diamond's method, respectively. The result showed that the maximal rebound of the SB level within 24 hours after BET was significantly lower in the automated method than in Diamond's method (p less than 0.01), though SB levels before and after BET were not significantly different between the two methods. The exchange rate was also measured by means of staining the fetal red cells (F cells) both in the automated method and in Diamond's method, and comparing them. The exchange rate of F cells in Diamond's method went down along the theoretical exchange curve proposed by Diamond, while the rate in the automated method was significantly better than in Diamond's, especially in the early stage of BET (p less than 0.01). We believe that the use of this automated method may give better results than Diamond's method in the rate of exchange, because this method is performed with a two-site technique using a peripheral artery and vein.

  20. Effects of ozone on growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates of four Bangladeshi cultivars of rice (Oryza sativa L.)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Akhtar, Nahid [United Graduate School of Agricultural Science, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Yamaguchi, Masahiro; Inada, Hidetoshi; Hoshino, Daiki; Kondo, Taisuke [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Fukami, Motohiro [Faculty of Agriculture, Utsunomiya University, Utsunomiya, Tochigi 321-8505 (Japan); Funada, Ryo [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan); Izuta, Takeshi, E-mail: izuta@cc.tuat.ac.j [Institute of Agriculture, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, Fuchu, Tokyo 183-8509 (Japan)

    2010-09-15

    To assess the effects of tropospheric O{sub 3} on rice cultivated in Bangladesh, four Bangladeshi cultivars (BR11, BR14, BR28 and BR29) of rice (Oryza sativa L.) were exposed daily to charcoal-filtered air or O{sub 3} at 60 and 100 nl l{sup -1} (10:00-17:00) from 1 July to 28 November 2008. The whole-plant dry mass and grain yield per plant of the four cultivars were significantly reduced by the exposure to O{sub 3}. The exposure to O{sub 3} significantly reduced net photosynthetic rate of the 12th and flag leaves of the four cultivars. The sensitivity to O{sub 3} of growth, yield and leaf gas exchange rates was not significantly different among the four cultivars. The present study suggests that the sensitivity to O{sub 3} of yield of the four Bangladeshi rice cultivars is greater than that of American rice cultivars and is similar to that of Japanese rice cultivars and that O{sub 3} may detrimentally affect rice production in Bangladesh. - Bangladeshi cultivars of rice are sensitive to O{sub 3} below 100 ppb.

  1. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study had been to investigate the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic growth in Nigeria. This paper adopted purchasing power parity index, the parallel market index and the model-based index of exchange rate misalignment to investigate the effects of real exchange rate ...

  2. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the equilibrium exchange rate is significantly influenced by economic policy variables such as trade openness, government .... based, black market-based and endogenous growth model-based), the authors found a negative relationship between ...... Real exchange rate, is defined as , where is nominal exchange rate (local ...

  3. SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATES

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    ALEŠA LOTRIČ DOLINAR

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Using spectral analysis is very common in technical areas but rather unusual in economics and finance, where ARIMA and GARCH modeling are much more in use. To show that spectral analysis can be useful in determining hidden periodic components for high-frequency finance data as well, we use the example of foreign exchange rates

  4. Water exchange rate in RAS and dietary inclusion of micro-minerals influence growth, body composition and mineral metabolism in common carp

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Antony Jesu Prabhu, P.; Kaushik, S.J.; Geurden, I.; Stouten, T.; Fontagné-dicharry, S.; Veron, V.; Mariojouls, C.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Eding, E.H.; Schrama, J.W.

    2017-01-01

    Recirculation aquaculture systems (RASs) operated at low water exchange rates are known to accumulate minerals in the water. This study examined the dietary mineral requirement and metabolism in common carp reared in RAS of contrasting water exchange rates. Two independent RAS (water exchange rates,

  5. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

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    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  6. real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of the study had been to investigate the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on .... The model prescribes that a country that tends to strengthen its exchange rate must raise interest rate, lower prices, and reduce real growth. A country's current account .... price level is assumed to be defined over the.

  7. Real Exchange Rate and Productivity in an OLG Model

    OpenAIRE

    Thi Hong Thinh DOAN; Karine GENTE

    2013-01-01

    This article develops an overlapping generations model to show how demography and savings affect the relationship between real exchange rate (RER) and productivity. In high-saving (low-saving) countries and/or low-population-growth-rate countries, a rise in productivity leads to a real depreciation (appreciation) whereas the RER may appreciate or depreciate in highproduction-growth-rate. Using panel data, we conclude that a rise in productivity generally causes a real exchange rate appreciati...

  8. Exchange rate rebounds after foreign exchange market interventions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoshikawa, Takeshi

    2017-03-01

    This study examined the rebounds in the exchange rate after foreign exchange intervention. When intervention is strongly effective, the exchange rate rebounds at next day. The effect of intervention is reduced slightly by the rebound after the intervention. The exchange rate might have been 67.12-77.47 yen to a US dollar without yen-selling/dollar-purchasing intervention of 74,691,100 million yen implemented by the Japanese government since 1991, in comparison to the actual exchange rate was 103.19 yen to the US dollar at the end of March 2014.

  9. Deterministic flow in phase space of exchange rates: Evidence of chaos in filtered series of Turkish Lira-Dollar daily growth rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coban, Guersan; Bueyueklue, Ali H.

    2009-01-01

    This study aims to expose a possible dynamic structure and nonlinear relationship in exchange rates. Specifically, the analysis derives on the filtered version of USDTRY daily log returns, where TRY stands for the New Turkish Lira with respect to the US Dollar (USD) between August 2001 and February 2007. A carefully applied projective filtering methodology removed most of the noise contaminant. The computation of correlation dimension and Largest Lyapunov Exponent (LLE) supported by the surrogate data testing procedure showed that the nature of the governing dynamics of the filtered series has a significantly different behavior from a stochastic system. All computations support the evidence of deterministic chaos in the reconstructed phase space of the filtered USDTRY log return series.

  10. Growth rates made easy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hall, Barry G; Acar, Hande; Nandipati, Anna; Barlow, Miriam

    2014-01-01

    In the 1960s-1980s, determination of bacterial growth rates was an important tool in microbial genetics, biochemistry, molecular biology, and microbial physiology. The exciting technical developments of the 1990s and the 2000s eclipsed that tool; as a result, many investigators today lack experience with growth rate measurements. Recently, investigators in a number of areas have started to use measurements of bacterial growth rates for a variety of purposes. Those measurements have been greatly facilitated by the availability of microwell plate readers that permit the simultaneous measurements on up to 384 different cultures. Only the exponential (logarithmic) portions of the resulting growth curves are useful for determining growth rates, and manual determination of that portion and calculation of growth rates can be tedious for high-throughput purposes. Here, we introduce the program GrowthRates that uses plate reader output files to automatically determine the exponential portion of the curve and to automatically calculate the growth rate, the maximum culture density, and the duration of the growth lag phase. GrowthRates is freely available for Macintosh, Windows, and Linux. We discuss the effects of culture volume, the classical bacterial growth curve, and the differences between determinations in rich media and minimal (mineral salts) media. This protocol covers calibration of the plate reader, growth of culture inocula for both rich and minimal media, and experimental setup. As a guide to reliability, we report typical day-to-day variation in growth rates and variation within experiments with respect to position of wells within the plates.

  11. Introduction to the World of Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos Vargas-Silva

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we discuss the functioning of the foreign exchange rate system. We start by giving a historical account of the different exchange rate systems around the world. Next, we discuss the determinants of a currency’s value according to the main theories of exchange rate determination. Subsequently, we discuss the difference between the nominal and real exchange rate. Finally, the paper ends with summary and conclusions and with a list of additional readings on the topic.

  12. Measuring the costs of exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Paul R. Bergin

    2004-01-01

    Many countries go to great lengths to manage their exchange rates. Probably the most prominent recent example is the European Monetary Union, where all the members abandoned their national currencies and adopted the euro. A number of developing countries maintain other kinds of regimes of managed exchange rates, even though they face potent market pressures to let their exchange rates float. One of the main motives for these arrangements stems from the extreme volatility of exchange rates. Th...

  13. The role of tourism and exchange rate on economic growth:Evidence from the BIMP-EAGA countries

    OpenAIRE

    Hanafiah Harvey; Fumitaka Furuoka; Qaiser Munir

    2013-01-01

    Developing economies as well as developed economies recognized appropriate tourism policies will be an important factor in promoting economic growth. BIMP-EAGA (Brunei-Indonesia-Malaysia-Philippines East ASEAN Growth Area) was conceived with the objective to speed up economic development among the four countries and one of which is focused on tourism. Focusing on annual data, this paper utilized the bounds testing approach to cointegration and error-correction modeling to evaluate if tourism ...

  14. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Slovenia

    OpenAIRE

    Gonzalo Caprirolo; Vladimir Lavrac

    2003-01-01

    The paper is divided in three sections presenting some stylized facts concerning monetary and exchange rate policy framework in Slovenia. Three periods are covered: Money-based Stabilization Policy (1991-1995), Price and Real Exchange Rate Stability Dual Targeting Policy (1996-2001), and Exchange Rate Based Stabilization Policy and Accession to ERM2 (2001-).

  15. Fiscal deficits, exchange rate crises and inflation.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1991-01-01

    This article extends earlier work on unsustainable monetary policies by endogenizing the regime switch that ultimately restores sustainability. Within this framework we analyze exchange rate based stabilization programs and shows how constraints on Central Bank borrowing during an exchange crisis

  16. ON CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF UNPRECEDENTED RUBLE EXCHANGE GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polyakov Egor Nikolaevich

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We provide an analysis of real effective exchange rate dynamics in Russia throughout the last decade. Authors analysed the causes and consequences of real effective exchange growth and assessed how Russian ruble real effective exchange rate comply with its equilibrium level. Authors present results of empiric analysis of relationship between real effective exchange rate and labour productivity in industry of 20 european, asian countries and Russia. The result of this writing was the formulation of key copyright conclusions, namely: 1. The price level in the country (and the level of the real exchange rate of the national currency is a key factor of competitiveness. Accordingly, the real exchange rate of the national currency - is one of the most important policy tools. 2. The ruble today seriously overvalued. Overvaluation of the national currency relative to the equilibrium level is extremely harmful to the economy. Less recognized, but also widespread YaV it possible to the idea that an undervalued currency is a prerequisite for rapid economic growth. 3. A direct consequence of the growth of the real exchange rate in the past 12 years has been the growth of the external debt of the private sector. 4. Restraining the growth rate of the national currency - is also a common practice for countries who are concerned about the level of competitiveness. But Russia is this day-the only country of the G-20, which is impossible to control the REER.

  17. Exchange rate policy under sovereign default risk

    OpenAIRE

    Schabert, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    We examine monetary policy options for a small open economy where sovereign default might occur due to intertemporal insolvency. Under interest rate policy and floating exchange rates the equilibrium is indetermined. Under a fixed exchange rate the equilibrium is uniquely determined and independent of sovereign default.

  18. Exchange Rate and the PRC Foreign Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Izotov D. A.

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The stages of exchange rate regulation and foreign trade systems reforming in PRC during the period 1978-2008 are examined. A quantitative assessment of PRC foreign trade parameters reactions to the currency rate dynamics on the national and regional levels is made. Also the import and export impact of potential exchange rate changes is estimated

  19. Interest Rate Rules, Exchange Market Pressure, and Successful Exchange Rate Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Klaassen, F.; Mavromatis, K.

    2016-01-01

    Central banks with an exchange rate objective set the interest rate in response to what they call ''pressure.'' Instead, existing interest rate rules rely on the exchange rate minus its target. To stay closer to actual policy, we introduce a rule that uses exchange market pressure (EMP), the

  20. Choice of exchange rate regimes for African countries: Fixed or Flexible Exchange rate regimes?

    OpenAIRE

    Simwaka, Kisu

    2010-01-01

    The choice of an appropriate exchange rate regime has been a subject of ongoing debate in international economics. The majority of African countries are small open economies and thus where the choice of the exchange rate regime is an important policy issue. Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country’s relative level of economic health. For this reason, exchange rates are among the most watched analyzed and ...

  1. STATISTICS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN NIGERIA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DJFLEX

    2009-02-11

    Feb 11, 2009 ... KEY WORDS: Exchange Rate Regime; ARIMA Model, Stationarity, Random Walk Model. INTRODUCTION. Exchange rate has been defined as the price of one currency in terms of another. It can be expressed in one of two ways: as units of domestic currency per unit of foreign currency; or units of foreign ...

  2. The Foreign Exchange Rate Exposure of Nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984), we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  3. Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kouwenberg, R.; Markiewicz, A.; Verhoeks, R.; Zwinkels, R.C.J.

    2017-01-01

    Exchange rate models with uncertain and incomplete information predict that investors focus on a small set of fundamentals that changes frequently over time. We design a model selection rule that captures the current set of fundamentals that best predicts the exchange rate. Out-of-sample tests show

  4. Searching for an Appropriate Exchange Rate Regime

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yunjong Wang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to survey current debates on the choice of exchange rate regime in emerging market economies. The issue of choosing an appropriate exchange rate regime is being actively discussed since the recent Asian crisis. As a lesson from the recent crises, one widely shared conclusion is that soft peg exchange rate regimes are extremely vulnerable in a world of volatile capital movements. Consequently, new orthodoxy based on the impossible trinity hypothesis favours two corner solutions ― greater flexibility or credible institutional assurance, like a currency board system or dollarization. Nevertheless, questions whether such corner solutions are adequate for developing countries are rising of late. "Fear of floating" is still conspicuous in many developing countries having adopted nominally a free-floating exchange rate regime. Developing countries are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations because the cost of exchange rate volatility is greater than the benefit when compared to developed countries. Monitoring bands is a compromise solution, but it still needs further enhancement of estimation techniques for fundamental equilibrium exchange rates in order to make those estimation results more workable in practice. Other alternatives include the creation of soft peg of the G-3 currencies. Despite counterarguments, the stability of G-3 currencies could prove to be beneficial to emerging market economies.

  5. The Determinants of Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Rahel

    Definition and Construction. Source. Nominal Exchange. Rate. Bilateral Exchange rate of Nigeria Naira to US. Dollar. Central Bank of. Nigeria (CBN). Real Exchange Rate. Nominal Exchange Rate/Consumer Price. Index. CBN. Volatility of Nominal. Exchange Rate. Standard Deviation of the log differences of real exchange ...

  6. STATISTICS OF EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES IN NIGERIA

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    currency. But since transactions are made in national (domestic) currencies, the former is generally applied for exchange (Mordi, 2006). The main objectives of ... different regimes. In this paper, attempt is made to use Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average. (ARIMA) model to study exchange rate data according to ...

  7. Intervention Analysis of Nigeria's Foreign Exchange Rate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ADOWIE PERE

    collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical. Bulletin for empirical verification. The data considered for the analysis is the monthly average official exchange rate of the naira vis-à-vis the. United State dollar for the period 1980 to 2014. Research Problems: In September 1986, the Second-. Tier Foreign Exchange ...

  8. The foreign exchange rate rate exposure of nations

    OpenAIRE

    Entorf, Horst; Moebert, Jochen; Sonderhof, Katja

    2007-01-01

    Following the well-known approach by Adler and Dumas (1984) we evaluate the foreign exchange rate exposure of nations. Results based on data from 27 countries show that national foreign exchange rate exposures are significantly related to the current trade balance variables of corresponding economies.

  9. Effects of interest and exchange rate policies on Brazilian exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cláudia Maria Sonaglio

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In heterodox literature, the industrial sector is considered strategic for economic development. Consequently, reducing the contribution of this sector in the production of the country before it has reached the stage of economic maturity, affects the productive dynamics and slow technical progress. The appreciation of the real exchange rate is seen as one of the factors responsible for the reduction of the external competitiveness of Brazilian manufactures, and this exchange rate valuation may be occurring due to the differences between domestic and international interest rates. Given this context, the aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of changes in the monetary and exchange rate policy and in the composition of the total exports on the performance of the Brazilian economy using a structuralist model. The results reinforce the importance of the manufacturing sector to economic growth, especially in a competitive exchange rate environment.

  10. Labour Demand and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...

  11. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly trade...... theoretical contributions to the litterature on pricing-to-market and exchange rate pass-through....

  12. Real Exchange Rates in Advanced Transition Economies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Grubacic

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The recent evidence from Eastern Europe suggests that one of the major obstacles towards the adoption of euro may lie in the impact that the recession of 2008 exerted on the trajectory of real exchange rates in new member countries (European Commission, 2015.  This paper aims to establish and explain the relationship between the external shocks derived from the global financial crisis and recession of 2008 and equilibrium real exchange rate in advanced transition economies of Eastern Europe. The interplay between the external and internal balances is explained by developing an inter-temporal optimizing model of the real exchange rate determination in a small open economy with structural distortions. The results of our model suggest that, in the aftermath of recession, if the Eastern European economies attempt to restore and maintain the balance between the consumption, saving, and investment, the equilibrium real exchange rate will tend to reverse its trajectory from appreciation to depreciation over time in order to encourage a greater production in the future. The equilibrium real exchange rate depreciation in the future may obtain either as a result of an increase in the direct subsidies on investment or as a result of reduced subsidies on the "net-of-investment" income.  The deprecation of countries’ real exchange rate, however, may continue to act as an effective constraint against the adoption of euro.

  13. ON CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES OF UNPRECEDENTED RUBLE EXCHANGE GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Егор Николаевич Поляков

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We provide an analysis of real effective exchange rate dynamics in Russia throughout the last decade. Authors analysed the causes and consequences of real effective exchange growth and assessed how Russian ruble real effective exchange rate comply with its equilibrium level. Authors present results of empiric analysis of relationship between real effective exchange rate and labour productivity in industry of 20 european, asian countries and Russia.The result of this writing was the formulation of key copyright conclusions, namely:1. The price level in the country (and the level of the real exchange rate of the national currency is a key factor of competitiveness. Accordingly, the real exchange rate of the national currency - is one of the most important policy tools.2. The ruble today seriously overvalued. Overvaluation of the national currency relative to the equilibrium level is extremely harmful to the economy. Less recognized, but also widespread YaV it possible to the idea that an undervalued currency is a prerequisite for rapid economic growth.3. A direct consequence of the growth of the real exchange rate in the past 12 years has been the growth of the external debt of the private sector.4. Restraining the growth rate of the national currency - is also a common practice for countries who are concerned about the level of competitiveness. But Russia is this day-the only country of the G-20, which is impossible to control the REER.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/2218-7405-2013-3-4

  14. Brazilian exchange rate complexity: Financial crisis effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piqueira, José Roberto C.; Mortoza, Letícia Pelluci D.

    2012-04-01

    With the financial market globalization, foreign investments became vital for the economies, mainly in emerging countries. In the last decades, Brazilian exchange rates appeared as a good indicator to measure either investors' confidence or risk aversion. Here, some events of global or national financial crisis are analyzed, trying to understand how they influenced the "dollar-real" rate evolution. The theoretical tool to be used is the López-Mancini-Calbet (LMC) complexity measure that, applied to real exchange rate data, has shown good fitness between critical events and measured patterns.

  15. THE CHOSEN EXCHANGE RATE AS THE POSSIBILITY OF REDUCING THE RISKS OF CURRENCY EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Attila Rozsa

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The profitability of the operation of an enterprise is influenced by several factors. Beside the evolution of market supply and demand the hectic changes in exchange rates have an increasingly important role too. Since the start of the economic crisis in the autumn of 2008, changes in the exchange rate have been more and more emphasized. The article deals with methods for decreasing exchange risks of foreign currency transactions, without the need of completeness. In international trade due to the growth of the number of currency loans the significance of managing financial risks coming from the changes in exchange rates has increased. One of the most obvious tools is properly selected currency.

  16. Russian – Chinese Trade and Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dmitry Alexandrovich Izotov

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The author assesses the impact of the Yuan exchange rate volatility on the indicators of the Russian-Chinese trade (the analysis is made on the ground of the statistical database CEIC. Quantitative estimates of changes in Russian-Chinese merchandise trade by commodity groups (in the HS classification due to the revaluation of the CNY against the USD were obtained via the regression analysis. In the case of the revaluation of the Yuan to the US dollar the value of Russian exports may increase for such commodity groups as mineral products, chemical industry products, base metals, precious stones and metals, and vehicles. This article shows that the value of Chinese imports will decrease for such merchandise groups as transport vehicles, machinery and equipment, leather industry products, non-precious metals and products from them; in this case, the import of the food industry products, mineral products and optical instruments will decrease insignificantly. The author concludes that the revaluation of the Yuan, contributing to the growth of Russian exports and the reduction in Chinese imports, will not cause a radical change in structure of the Russian-Chinese trade

  17. Where Would the EUR/CHF Exchange Rate be Without the SNB's Minimum Exchange Rate Policy?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hanke, Michael; Poulsen, Rolf; Weissensteiner, Alex

    2015-01-01

    Since its announcement made on September 6, 2011, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) has been pursuing the goal of a minimum EUR/CHF exchange rate of 1.20, promising to intervene on currency markets to prevent the exchange rate from falling below this level.We use a compound option pricing approach...

  18. Exchange-rate forecasts and asymmetric loss: empirical evidence for the yen/dollar exchange rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    We used the yen/dollar exchange-rate forecasts of the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) poll to analyse whether exchange-rate forecasters have an asymmetric loss function. To this end, we applied an approach recently developed by Elliott et al. (2005). We found that only few forecasters seem to form...

  19. Apparent exchange rate for breast cancer characterization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasič, Samo; Oredsson, Stina; Partridge, Savannah C; Saal, Lao H; Topgaard, Daniel; Nilsson, Markus; Bryskhe, Karin

    2016-05-01

    Although diffusion MRI has shown promise for the characterization of breast cancer, it has low specificity to malignant subtypes. Higher specificity might be achieved if the effects of cell morphology and molecular exchange across cell membranes could be disentangled. The quantification of exchange might thus allow the differentiation of different types of breast cancer cells. Based on differences in diffusion rates between the intra- and extracellular compartments, filter exchange spectroscopy/imaging (FEXSY/FEXI) provides non-invasive quantification of the apparent exchange rate (AXR) of water between the two compartments. To test the feasibility of FEXSY for the differentiation of different breast cancer cells, we performed experiments on several breast epithelial cell lines in vitro. Furthermore, we performed the first in vivo FEXI measurement of water exchange in human breast. In cell suspensions, pulsed gradient spin-echo experiments with large b values and variable pulse duration allow the characterization of the intracellular compartment, whereas FEXSY provides a quantification of AXR. These experiments are very sensitive to the physiological state of cells and can be used to establish reliable protocols for the culture and harvesting of cells. Our results suggest that different breast cancer subtypes can be distinguished on the basis of their AXR values in cell suspensions. Time-resolved measurements allow the monitoring of the physiological state of cells in suspensions over the time-scale of hours, and reveal an abrupt disintegration of the intracellular compartment. In vivo, exchange can be detected in a tumor, whereas, in normal tissue, the exchange rate is outside the range experimentally accessible for FEXI. At present, low signal-to-noise ratio and limited scan time allows the quantification of AXR only in a region of interest of relatively large tumors. © 2016 The Authors. NMR in Biomedicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Exporter Price Response to Exchange Rate Changes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fosse, Henrik Barslund

    Firms exporting to foreign markets face a particular challenge: to price their exports in a foreign market when the exchange rate changes. This paper takes on pricing- to-market using a unique data set that covers rm level monthly trade at great detail. As opposed to annual trade ows, monthly tra...

  1. Real exchange rates in emerging economies

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brůha, J.; Podpiera, Jiří

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 18, č. 3 (2010), s. 599-628 ISSN 0967-0750 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z70850503 Keywords : real exchange rate * emerging economies * two-country model ling Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.536, year: 2010

  2. Large Devaluations and the Real Exchange Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burstein, Ariel; Eichenbaum, Martin; Rebelo, Sergio

    2005-01-01

    In this paper we argue that the primary force behind the large drop in real exchange rates that occurs after large devaluations is the slow adjustment in the prices of nontradable goods and services. Our empirical analysis uses data from five large devaluation episodes: Argentina (2002), Brazil (1999), Korea (1997), Mexico (1994), and Thailand…

  3. Exchange Rate Deregulation and Industrial Performance: An ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    FIRST LADY

    Abstract. This paper investigated the impact of exchange rate deregulation on industrial performance in Nigeria. In this study, secondary data over the period 1975 – 2005 was used and the co-integration technique and chow breakpoint test were considered as analytical tools. The study found that a long-run relationship ...

  4. Integrated Monetary and Exchange Rate Frameworks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    L. Vinhas de Souza

    2002-01-01

    textabstractHere the author empirically estimates if the different monetary and exchange rate frameworks observed in the Accession Countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltics do yield different outcomes in terms of level and variance of a set of nominal and real variables. The author

  5. Low light availability affects leaf gas exchange, growth and survival ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The values of dark respiration rate (Rd) and photosynthetic compensation irradiance (Ic) were sufficiently low for a positive carbon balance. Notwithstanding, the interpretation of results of microclimate variables together with leaf gas exchange and growth variables indicated that seedlings at all sites were in a suboptimal ...

  6. An Empirical Investigation into Exchange Rate Regime Choice and Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Helge Berger; Jan-Egbert Sturm; Jakob de Haan

    2000-01-01

    We test a simple model of exchange rate regime choice with data for 65 non-OECD countries covering the period 1980-94. We find that the variance of output at home and in potential target c ountries as well as the correlation between home and foreign real activity are powerful and robust predictors of exchange rate regime choice. Surprisingly, a more volatile foreign economy can be an argument in favor of a fixed exchange rate regime once similarities in the business cycle are taken into accou...

  7. Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article investigates the behavior of equilibrium exchange rate and real exchange rate misalignment in Sudan over the period 1979– 2009. In addition, the impact of real exchange rate misalignment on economic performance is examined. The empirical results show that the equilibrium exchange rate is significantly ...

  8. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Southern African Business Review ... This finding is inconsistent with the monetary model of exchange rate determination, which asserts that there is a long-run relationship between the exchange rate ... Key words: Exchange rates, monetary model, autoregressive distributed lag, cointegration, exchange rate overshooting ...

  9. Exchange rate variability, market activity and heterogeneity

    OpenAIRE

    Rime, Dagfinn; Sucarrat, Genaro

    2007-01-01

    We study the role played by geographic and bank-size heterogeneity in the relation between exchange rate variability and market activity. We find some support for the hypothesis that increases in short-term global interbank market activity, which can be interpreted as due to variation in information arrival, increase variability. However, our results do not suggest that local short-term activity increases variability. With respect to long-term market activity, which can be interpreted as a me...

  10. Interest Rate, Inflation Rate and Exchange Rate Influence on the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Index (SMI), proxy for stock prices. The index of all share prices (SMI), is a barometer for growth of the stock ... Their dynamic effect on or relationship with the SMI is investigated, using co- integration on yearly data between 1975 and 2009. The finding is that some relationships exist among them, though not significant.

  11. The effects of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange volatility on exports

    OpenAIRE

    Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou

    2011-01-01

    This paper uses panel data cointegration techniques to study the impacts of real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility on total exports for a panel of 42 developing countries from 1975 to 2004. The results show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. The results also illustrate that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on s...

  12. Australian Exports: Global Demand and the High Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Tim Atkin; Ellis Connolly

    2013-01-01

    Growth in Australian exports was weaker than had been expected over the past 10 years across all major categories: resources, rural, manufactures and services. While exports of bulk commodities and liquefied natural gas (LNG) grew strongly in response to higher demand from Asia, this was partly offset by declines in exports of oil and processed metals. Non-resource exports have been adversely affected by the appreciation of the exchange rate and the ongoing rise in the share of global product...

  13. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    OpenAIRE

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantag...

  14. The performance of exchange rate regimes in three SADC countries: An overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernard N. Iyke

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides an overview of the real exchange rate and economic growth dynamics in three low-income Southern African countries, namely: the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC, Malawi and Mozambique. Specifically, the paper investigates the nature of exchange rate regimes and the impact that they have on economic growth, as well as the movement of real exchange rates and real GDP from 1970—2010 in these countries. The paper identifies the following trends: Fixed exchange regimes were pursued from the 1960s until the late 1980s and early 1990s in these countries, which were growth-repressing; the countries pursued floating and managed-floating regimes from the 1990s to date, resulting in moderate-to-rapid economic growth. We conclude that liberalised exchange rates, which lead to undervalued currencies in these Southern African countries, were growth-enhancing.

  15. Stochastic Simulation of the Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anamaria ALDEA

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The rational expectations paradigm, that dominates macroeconomicsfails to take into account the complexity of the information, which is so vast that the individual brain cannot understand the full of it. The agents are boundedly rational,so they use simple forecasting rules that do not incorporate all available information, but they are willing to learn and will switch to other rules if it turns out that these rules are more profitable than the rule they have been using. Such trial and error learning strategies create the dynamics in the foreign exchange market, with two types of equilibria, a fundamental and a non-fundamental equilibrium to which the exchange rate is attracted.

  16. 14 CFR 65.43 - Rating privileges and exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Rating privileges and exchange. 65.43... § 65.43 Rating privileges and exchange. (a) The holder of a senior rating on August 31, 1970, may at any time after that date exchange his rating for a facility rating at the same air traffic control...

  17. 38 CFR 3.32 - Exchange rates for foreign currencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Exchange rates for foreign currencies. When determining the rates of pension or parents' DIC or the amounts... parents' DIC. (1) Because exchange rates for foreign currencies cannot be determined in advance, rates of... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exchange rates for...

  18. The microstructure of foreign exchange rate and foreign exchange rate formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vučković Vladimir

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The subject matter of market microstructure analysis are processes through which investor activities are transferred to quantities and prices. This direction indicates the fact that has been unjustifiably neglected in fundamental theories – foreign exchange rate results from the interactions between market participants. Spot foreign exchange market can best be described as a decentralised market with a number of dealers. There is no organised physical place (stock exchange where dealers meet their clients nor is there an electronic system which enables quotations of all dealers in a currency market to be simultaneously shown on the screen. The theory of order flows has resulted from the answer to the essential question of market microstructure: do trading mechanisms affect the price formation process of the trading subject, and how do they affect it. Information is scattered and not available to all subjects in an aggregate form, which is the consequence of a decentralised structure, lack of regulations and nontransparent trading on the foreign exchange market. In such a setting, market participants are incessantly aggregating signals based on scattered information, and no sooner than collective orders for foreign currency sales and purchases are formed do they build into the foreign exchange rate in the process of new information trading. are a good explanation for changes in the foreign exchange rate. Several studies have shown that order flows.

  19. Exchange rate volatility and international trade: The option approach

    OpenAIRE

    Franke, Günter

    1986-01-01

    Usually it is argued that an increase in exchange rate volatility reduces the volume of international trade since trading firms are risk averse. This paper shows for risk neutral firms that the expected international trade volume in standardized commodities grows with exchange rate volatility. The firms adjust their trade volume to the exchange rate level. The more favorable the exchange rate is, the higher is the export volume. If the rate drops below some level, exports are stopped. Thus in...

  20. GROWTH RATE OF ARABIAN FOALS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. PIESZKA

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Arabian horses are treated as one of the most noble horse breed in the world. It isalso one of the oldest breed known as a root of many other breeds. Opposite toThoroughbred horses Arabian ones are very healthy, easy to keep with low fodderdemand. They are still incredibly resistant to environmental conditions. Growth anddevelopment of foals is also very interesting because it is more similar to growth ofprimitive than to noble foals. The object of this study was to analyse the growth rateof Arabian foals bred in Poland. 382 foals born in Bialka Stud in 1983-2003 weretaken under consideration. The height at withers, girth and cannon circumferencemeasured at 1 day and 6 and 18 months of life were analysed. On this base thegrowth rate was calculated. Horses were divided into different groups accordingtheir year of birth, sex, coat colour and sire and dam lines. The statistical differencesbetween particular groups were evaluated. It was stated that year of birth affectedsignificantly the growth rate of Arabian foals. Colts were characterized bysignificantly higher growth rate of cannon circumference. Horses of different coatcolour did not differ in growth rate of any parameter. Affiliation to particular sireand dam lines had some effects on growth rate of Arabian foals.

  1. Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Paul De Grauwe; Gunther Schnabl

    2004-01-01

    This paper explores the impact of the exchange rate regime on inflation and output in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU candidate countries. The panel estimations for the period between 1994 and 2002 show that de facto measures of exchange rate stability have a better explanatory power than the de jure measures in the inflation and growth equations. For the whole observation period the estimations reveal a significant impact of exchange rate stability on low inflation as well as a hig...

  2. Analysis of the Chinese Exchange Rate Stability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngrok Cheng

    1998-03-01

    Full Text Available Asian Financial Crisis now is moving to a relatively stable phase, and at this time, whether Chinese RMB will depreciate is raising the concern of the outside world. If we simply consider economic factors, we will find REER (Real Effective Exchange Rate increased around 10%, where depreciation factors are lurking. However, after Vice Premier Zhu Rongji took the responsibility of economic operation and fixed the fundamental key of developing stably, many foreign departments present good impetus of development. After that, Foreign Exchange Rate Reservation increases and major focus is put on long-term operation for debt structure. On the contrary, If Chinese RMB depreciates dramatically, there will be some uneasiness towards domestic economy and also the burden of paying debt should be increased, people may suffer the loss quite a lot. Especially even we consider the responsibility as the central country in this region and the political & economical factors causing the harmonious atmosphere of Sino-American relationship, it can be predicted that Chinese RMB cannot depreciate dramatically within 1-2 years.

  3. Parallel markets, the foreign exchange auction, and exchange rate unification in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Aron, Janine; Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.

    1992-01-01

    A large thriving parallel market for foreign exchange has coexisted with a rich menu of official exchange rate policies aimed at achieving a more flexible exchange rate and price system as well as financial and trade liberalization. Despite aggresive policies in these areas, particularly for the exchange rate, the black market premium (defined as the ratio of the black market rate to the official rate) remains high. The authors examine the origins of the parallel market, the statistical prope...

  4. Misalignment under different exchange rate regimes: the case of Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Dağdeviren, Sengül; Ogus Binatli, Ayla; Sohrabji, Niloufer

    2011-01-01

    The paper examines misalignment of the Turkish lira between 1998 to 2008. Misalignment, specifically overvaluation has been linked to fixed exchange rate regimes. By studying the case of Turkey during this period which covers both a fixed and floating exchange rate regime, we contribute to the literature on the relation between misalignment and exchange rate regimes. We first estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Turkey, then compute misalignment and finally test for structural brea...

  5. The Estimation of the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate for Romania

    OpenAIRE

    Bogdan Andrei Dumitrescu; Vasile Dedu

    2009-01-01

    This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for Romania, respectively the real exchange rate consistent with the macroeconomic balance, which is achieved when the economy is operating at full employment and low inflation (internal balance) and has a current account that is sustainable (external balance). This equilibrium real exchange rate is very important for an economy because deviations of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium value can affect the competitiveness ...

  6. Examining the volatility of exchange rate: Does monetary policy matter?

    OpenAIRE

    Lim, Shu Yi; Sek, Siok Kun

    2014-01-01

    We conduct empirical analysis on examining the changes in exchange rate volatility under two monetary policy regimes, i.e. the pre- and post- inflation targeting (IT) regimes. In addition, we also investigate if the monetary decisions can have impacts on the volatility of exchange rate. The study is focused in four Asian countries that experienced drastic in the switch of monetary policy from the rigid exchange rate to flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting after the Asian financial c...

  7. Overcoming Fear of Floating: Exchange Rate Policies in Chile.

    OpenAIRE

    Jose De Gregorio; Andrea Tokman R.

    2004-01-01

    The paper reviews the exchange rate management experience in Chile, with particular emphasis on the floating exchange rate regime and its two forex intervention episodes. It presents evidence on Chile’s favorable conditions to face exchange rate shocks: a well-developed financial sector, that offers hedging opportunities taken up by the corporate sector to decrease its vulnerability through balance sheet effects; and a low and decreasing level of passthrough from the exchange rate to prices. ...

  8. The case for regional exchange rate arrangement in East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Takuji Kinkyo

    2004-01-01

    The Asian crisis highlighted the difficulties for developing countries to actively manage exchange rates in an environment of high capital mobility. Now it became fashionable to argue that the exchange rate should be either allowed to float freely or irrevocably fixed. This paper examines the case for regional exchange rate arrangements as an instrument to enhance the manageability of exchange rates and discusses the options in East Asia. It critically assess the existing proposal of common b...

  9. Political pressures and exchange rate stability in emerging market economies

    OpenAIRE

    Ester Faia; Massimo Giuliodori; Michele Ruta

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents a political economy model of exchange rate policy. The theory is based on a common agency approach with rational expectations. Financial and exporter lobbies exert political pressures to influence the government’s choice of exchange rate policy, before shocks to the economy are realized. The model shows that political pressures affect exchange rate policy and create an over-commitment to exchange rate stability. This helps to rationalize the empirical evidence on fear of l...

  10. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  11. Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Won-Am Park

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the experience of inflation targeting in Korea with an emphasis on exchange rate management. The Korean call rate responded to not only expected inflation, but also to output gap and changes in the real effective exchange rate of the Korean won, when we estimated the call rate reaction function over the period of 1999-2007. It was found that the call rate responded to changes in real effective exchange rate more than it did to expected inflation. We also examined whether Korean inflation targeting was actually centered on the exchange rate by estimating the Singaporean style of exchange rate reaction function. It was found that Korean monetary policy was not exchange-rate- centered, since the nominal effective exchange rate of the Korean won responded modestly to inflation and output gap, far less than did the Singaporean dollar.

  12. On the spillover of exchange rate risk into default risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Božović Miloš

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to reduce the exchange-rate risk, banks in emerging markets are typically denominating their loans in foreign currencies. However, in the event of a substantial depreciation of the local currency, the payment ability of a foreign-currency borrower may be reduced significantly, exposing the lender to additional default risk. This paper analyses how the exchange-rate risk of foreign currency loans spills over into default risk. We show that in an economy where foreign currency loans are a dominant source of financing economic activity, depreciation of the local currency establishes a negative feedback mechanism that leads to higher default probabilities, reduced credit supply, and reduced growth. This finding has some important implications that may be of special interest for regulators and market participants in emerging economies.

  13. Exchange rates and climate change: An application of fund

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.

    2006-01-01

    As economic and emissions scenarios assume convergence of per capita incomes, they are sensitivity to the exchange rate used for international comparison. Particularly, developing countries are project to grow slower with a purchasing power exchange rate than with a market exchange rate. Different

  14. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the effect of exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty on foreign direct investment in Nigeria. The investigation covers the period between 1970 and 2005. Exchange rate volatility and inflation uncertainty were estimated using the GARCH model. Estimation results indicated that exchange rate ...

  15. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    B. Tims (Ben); R.J. Mahieu (Ronald)

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are

  16. Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Frederic S. Mishkin

    2008-01-01

    This paper discusses what recent economic research tells us about exchange rate pass-through and what this suggests for the control of monetary policy. It first focuses on exchange rate pass-through from a macroeconomic perspective and then examines the microeconomic evidence. In light of this evidence, it then discusses the implications of exchange rate movements on the conduct of monetary policy.

  17. Essays on exchange rate policy in developing countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khamfula, Y.A.

    1999-01-01

    The breakdown of the Bretton Woods system of pegged exchange rates has since 1971 given developing countries a wider range of choice with regard to their exchange rate regimes than had previously existed. With the emergence of a variety of exchange rate regimes, increasing attention has been given

  18. The determinants of real exchange rate volatility in Nigeria | Ajao ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study recommends that the central monetary authority should institute policies that will minimize the magnitude of exchange rate volatility while the federal government exercises control of viable macroeconomic variables which have direct influence on exchange rate fluctuation. Keywords: Exchange Rate, Volatility, ...

  19. Growth of oxide exchange bias layers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaiken, A.; Michel, R.P.

    1998-07-21

    An oxide (NiO, CoO, NiCoO) antiferromagnetic exchange bias layer produced by ion beam sputtering of an oxide target in pure argon (Ar) sputtering gas, with no oxygen gas introduced into the system. Antiferromagnetic oxide layers are used, for example, in magnetoresistive readback heads to shift the hysteresis loops of ferromagnetic films away from the zero field axis. For example, NiO exchange bias layers have been fabricated using ion beam sputtering of an NiO target using Ar ions, with the substrate temperature at 200 C, the ion beam voltage at 1000V and the beam current at 20 mA, with a deposition rate of about 0.2 {angstrom}/sec. The resulting NiO film was amorphous. 4 figs.

  20. Monetary policy and exchange rate dynamics: the exchange rate as a shock absorber

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Audzei, Volha; Brázdik, F.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 65, č. 5 (2015), s. 391-410 ISSN 0015-1920 Institutional support: PRVOUK-P23 Keywords : Czech Republic * exchange rates * sign restrictions Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.449, year: 2015 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1340_audzei.pdf

  1. The political economy of exchange rate in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Terra, Maria Cristina T.

    2007-01-01

    This paper reviews part of the political economy literature on exchange rate policy relevant to understanding the political motivations behind the Brazilian exchange rate policy. We shall first examine the distributive role of the exchange rate, and the way it unfolds in terms of the desired political goals. We will follow by analyzing exchange policy as indicative of government effciency prior to elections. Finally, we discuss fiscal policy from the point of view of politic...

  2. International Exchange Rate Systems - Where do we Stand?

    OpenAIRE

    Horst Siebert

    2006-01-01

    This paper analyzes institutional arrangements for exchange rate systems and reviews what we know. It looks at the foreign exchange market, different balance of payment situations in which countries find themselves and the necessary exchange rate adjustments. It studies the options that are available to countries in choosing their exchange rate system (type of nominal anchor, nominal anchor versus real target and the degree of sovereignty to be given up) and reviews the historical experience ...

  3. The Exchange Rate Exposure of Danish Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    A shortcut to measuring exchange rate exposure at the company level can be to exploit the information content in the stock prices. A regression analysis is conducted for the main Danish non-financial companies. The use of one all-comprising exchange rate indicator fails to address the complexity...... of the extra-market exchange rate exposure of individual companies. As such, only a minority of companies has significant exposures when using the effective Danish exchange rate in an OLS regression analysis while half of the companies have significant exposures when using five main exchange rates. A GARCH(1...

  4. Does Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Korea's Seaborne Import Volume?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chang Beom Kim

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study used monthly data from 2000 to 2015 to analyze the effects of USD/KRW exchange rate volatility on seaborne import volume in Korea. The results of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL analysis indicate that USD/KRW exchange rate volatility has a statistically significant negative influence on Korea's seaborne import volume. Moreover, the results of a vector error correction model (VECM analysis found that the USD/KRW exchange rate volatility exhibited short-term unidirectional causality on import volume and real income, and confirmed bidirectional causality between the real effective exchange rate and exchange rate volatility.

  5. Increasing Stability in the Mix of Exchange-rate Policies.

    OpenAIRE

    Mushin, Jerry

    2008-01-01

    This paper is an examination of the experience of exchange-rate policy systems since 1996 and a comparison with the experience of 1978 to 1995. Exchange-rate policy has become more stable than it was in the earlier period. In addition, it has become polarized, with almost all countries choosing either a fixed exchange-rate regime (especially in low-GDP countries) or a floating exchange-rate regime (especially in high-GDP countries). Limited-flexibility exchange-rate systems have become unimpo...

  6. Fluctuation Dynamics of Exchange Rates on Indian Financial Market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarkar, A.; Barat, P.

    Here we investigate the scaling behavior and the complexity of the average daily exchange rate returns of the Indian Rupee against four foreign currencies namely US Dollar, Euro, Great Britain Pound and Japanese Yen. Our analysis revealed that the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar exhibits a persistent scaling behavior and follow Levy stable distribution. On the contrary the average daily exchange rate returns of the other three foreign currencies show randomness and follow Gaussian distribution. Moreover, it is seen that the complexity of the average daily exchange rate return of the Indian Rupee against US Dollar is less than the other three exchange rate returns.

  7. KRW/USD Exchange Rate Volatility and Efficient Risk Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang-Yong Joo

    1999-03-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzes the relationship between the exchange rate of Korean Won and US dollar and the amount of foreign exchange, and studies the direction of the amendment of the risk control of foreign exchange. The GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model which visually embodies the auto-regress of the wave of exchange rate shows that the amount of trade will enhance the fluidity of the exchange rate, that is, the various expects of the participators of the market affect the amount of trade and the fluidity, so in the process of trading, the trader who is in the dry tree of information bears more trading expenditure. It is predicted that the liberalization of foreign exchange rate and fluctuated exchange rate system will jointly bring the enhancement of the fluidity of the exchange rate and the amount of exchange trade. The change of this system will bring the rise of participators in foreign exchange market; meanwhile, it will also initiate superfluous fluidity of foreign exchange market. In order to overcome this problem, the government needs to implement the development strategy of the understructure of the foreign exchange market and the enterprises need to carry through systemic exchange rate risk control.

  8. The Taxation Implicit in Two-Tiered Exchange Rate Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizinga, H.P.

    1996-01-01

    A two-tiered exchange rate system can be interpreted as a set of separate taxes on money and other financial assets.If the official two-tiered exchange rate system coexists with a black market for foreign exchange, then there is an implicit taxation of international goods trade as well.This paper

  9. A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Parallel Markets and Dual and Multiple Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2002-01-01

    There are cases where the parallel (or secondary) exchange rate applies only to a few limited transactions. An example is the “switch pound” in the United Kingdom during September 1950 through April 1967. However, it is not unusual for dual or parallel markets (legal or otherwise) to account for the lion’s share of transactions with the official rate being little more than symbolic. The official rate typically diminishes in importance when the gap between the official and market-determined...

  10. Exchange rate system and policy in the present world

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grubišić Zoran

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime is important, not only in terms of its effect on trade flows, but also with respect to inflation expectations. Countries facing disinflation may find that pegs regimes are more appropriate solution. But where the trade balance account is significantly deteriorated and growth has been sluggish, a more flexible regime might be called for. The natural classification in eighties and early nineties suggests that intermediate regimes may provide important advantages – to capture some of the benefits of both extremes while avoiding many of the costs. However today many experts predicted that exchange rate regimes would move in a "bipolar" manner to the extremes of "hard" pegs or free floats. An increasing number of countries did announce their intent to allow greater exchange rate flexibility. But, in practice, countries had a "fear of floating ". Distinction is made among advanced, emerging and other developing countries. Emerging markets have stronger links to international capital markets than do other developing economies. Thus, while non-emerging market developing economies may gain credibility through pegging their exchange rates, emerging markets find it harder to do so and could benefit from investing in "learning to float". More advanced economies with their access to international capital market are best positioned to enjoy the benefits of flexibility. It is found that the proportion of countries adopting intermediate regimes has indeed been shrinking in favor of greater flexibility or greater fixity, especially for countries more integrated with international markets. But, there is no final conclusion on the idea that intermediate regimes will dissapear.

  11. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    , and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...... a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes...... regime in whichthe monetary authority optimises preferences which include an employment targetand an inflation target. As government spending affects the representativeindividual's utility, the choice of exchange rate regime has an impact on welfare.Keywords: exchange rate regimes; fiscal policy...

  12. Estimating the effects of Exchange and Interest Rates on Stock ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the effects of exchange rate and interest rate on the Nigerian Stock Market using the All-share index as a proxy for the market. The monthly closing returns of All-share index, exchange rates and interest rates were utilized for a period of thirty years beginning from January, 2009 to December, 2011.

  13. A univariate estimation of the Philippine's exchange rate | Urrutia ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study aims to forecast the Exchange Rate of the Philippines for five years starting from 2016 to 2020, and determine which among Inflation Rate, Purchasing Power of Peso, Interest Rate, Exports, Imports, and Balance of Payments is a significant factor that can influence Exchange Rate. The researchers used the ...

  14. Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: Do African exchange rates follow a random walk?

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract In this paper we aim at modelling the long run behaviour of the Real Effective Exchange Rates (REER) for a pool of African countries. Not much attention has been paid to this group of countries, in particular, to the existence of nonlinearities in the long run path of such a variable. Controlling for two sources of nonlinearites, i.e. asymmetric adjustment to equilibrium and nonlinear deterministic trends allows us to gain some insight about the behaviour of the African R...

  15. Exchange Rate Risk On The Mortgage Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Siemińska Ewa

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Strict connections of the real estate market with the financial market are an unquestionable phenomenon at every level of investing, starting from the lowest individual investor, and finishing with national and transnational players. One of the more interesting examples of such a dependency is the problem of the risk of financing the real estate market, which results from numerous macro-, mezo- and microeconomic conditions, including, inter alias, the phenomenon of capital migration, supranational bank regulations or the development of currency exchange rates on world markets. The most recent example of such a dependency is, among others, the decision of the National Bank of Switzerland from the beginning of 2015 to abandon the Swiss franc-euro cap, which will go down in the history of the world financial market. Its global effects will surely be very difficult to assess, while the resulting turbulences and consequences for many (institutional, corporation and individual market participants cause, on the one hand, awaiting a reaction and actions aimed at helping entities affected by the consequences of the mentioned decision and, on the other, many questions and doubts.

  16. Taxa de câmbio, exportações e crescimento: uma investigação sobre a hipótese de doença holandesa no Brasil Exchange rate, exports and growth: an investigation on the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele Polline Veríssimo

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the hypothesis of Dutch disease in Brazil by the existence of a negative relationship between commodity exports and the real exchange rate, and the effects of export specialization in commodities on the Brazilian economic growth from 1999 to 2010 based on VAR model. The evidences suggested an expressive importance of commodities exports in explaining the real exchange rate changes. Moreover, commodities exports shocks were relevant to explain Brazilian economic growth rate changes, which supports the "curse" of natural resources literature.

  17. Management of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ramkishen S. Rajan

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper revisits the issue of exchange rate regimes in emerging Asia over the decade 1999–2009. It finds that while Asia is home to a wide array of exchange rate regimes, there are signs of gradual movement toward somewhat greater exchange rate flexibility in many of the regional countries. There appears to be evidence of an apparent “fear of appreciation” which is manifested in asymmetric exchange rate intervention—i.e., a willingness to allow depreciations but reluctance to allow appreciations. This policy of effective exchange rate undervaluation is rather unorthodox from a neoclassical sense, but is consistent with a development policy centered on suppressing the price of non-tradable goods relative to tradables (i.e., real exchange rate undervaluation.

  18. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minh Thi Hong Le

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the panel data and, then, a GMM estimator is employed to ensure the consistency of the estimates. The results point out that the exchange rate exposure of these countries is asymmetric. At market level, for a rise in the exchange rate (or local currency depreciates, the average stock returns tend to decrease. However, due to the favourable impact of currency depreciation on the net export position, the reduction speed of stock returns is faster than the rising speed of the exchange rate.

  19. The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen; Rogoff, Kenneth

    2004-01-01

    We develop a novel system of re-classifying historical exchange rate regimes. One difference between our study and previous classification efforts is that we employ an extensive data base on market-determined parallel exchange rates. Our 'natural' classification algorithm leads to a stark reassessment of the post-war history of exchange rate arrangements. When the official categorization is a form of peg, roughly half the time our classification reveals the true underlying monetary regime to ...

  20. Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Christian Broda

    2002-01-01

    Since Friedman (1953), an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of seventy-five developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way tha...

  1. The Skill-Biased Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations

    OpenAIRE

    Boris Kaiser; Michael Siegenthaler

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the linkages between real exchange rate movements and firms' skill demand. Real exchange rate movements may affect unskilled workers differently than skilled workers because of skill-specific adjustment costs, or because exchange rates lead to changes in relative factor prices and firms' competition intensity. Using panel data on Swiss manufacturers, we find that an appreciation increases high-skilled and reduces low-skilled employment in most firms, while total employment...

  2. A Range-Based Multivariate Model for Exchange Rate Volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Tims, Ben; Mahieu, Ronald

    2003-01-01

    textabstractIn this paper we present a parsimonious multivariate model for exchange rate volatilities based on logarithmic high-low ranges of daily exchange rates. The multivariate stochastic volatility model divides the log range of each exchange rate into two independent latent factors, which are interpreted as the underlying currency specific components. Due to the normality of logarithmic volatilities the model can be estimated conveniently with standard Kalman filter techniques. Our resu...

  3. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposure - Research in Southeast Asian Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Minh Thi Hong Le; Ha Thi Cam Huynh; Hong Thi Thu Dinh

    2017-01-01

    The study aims to analyse the impact of exchange rate exposure on stock returns in six countries representative of Southeast Asia, including Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam from 2009 to 2014. Both nominal and real exchange rates are taken into account for evaluating exchange rate fluctuations via panel data. In order to achieve this goal, a panel regressive estimation approach is proposed in which a GLS model is firstly used to treat heteroscedasticity in the...

  4. Effects of Exchange Rates on World Prices of Australian Wool

    OpenAIRE

    Islam, Nazrul; Tcha, MoonJoong; Stanton, John

    2006-01-01

    Australian wool producers are being told that exchange rate have driven systematic fluctuation in the price of their wool at auction. This paper presents some key findings of a major collaborative study on the effect of exchange rates on Australian wool prices with the Economic Research Centre at the University of Western Australia. The effect of the exporter and importer’s market powers on the extent of price changes due to exchange rates, was analysed using Australian Bureau of Statistics w...

  5. Real exchange rate persistence and the excess return puzzle

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Assenmacher, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    The PPP puzzle refers to the wide swings of nominal exchange rates around their long-run equilibrium values whereas the excess return puzzle represents the persistent deviation of the domestic-foreign interest rate differential from the expected change in the nominal exchange rate. Using the I(2)...

  6. Measuring real exchange rate misalignment in Croatia: cointegration approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irena Palić

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of the paper is to analyze misalignment of the real exchange rate in Croatia. The misalignment analysis is conducted using the permanent equilibrium exchange rate approach. The equilibrium real exchange rate is computed using the cointegration approach whereby the real exchange rate and its fundamentals, namely terms of trade, net foreign assets and the ratio of prices of tradables to non-tradables are included in cointegration analysis. The Hodrick and Prescott filter is used to obtain permanent values of the equilibrium real exchange rate. The real exchange rate misalignment is computed as the deviation of the RER from its permanent equilibrium level. Four overvaluation periods and three undervaluation periods are recorded in Croatia in the observed period. Overvaluation periods are more often and of longer duration than undervaluation periods. However, the real exchange rate does not deviate largely from its estimated equilibrium value in the observed period, and it is neither overvalued nor undervalued constantly, but the periods alternate. Considering the results of the analysis, together with the empirical characteristics of Croatian economy, namely the high foreign currency indebtedness, highly euroized economy and underdeveloped export oriented sector, the depreciation of the real exchange rate is not recommended to economic policy makers and the current Croatian exchange rate policy is appropriate.

  7. Effect of exogenous methyl jasmonate on growth, gas exchange and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Drought stress severely hampered the growth, leaf gas-exchange attributes as well as the photosynthetic pigment contents. It was evident from the experimental results that, MJ-treatment led to further impairment in growth by inhibiting the leaf gas exchange attributes and chlorophyll contents. It is worth noted that, ...

  8. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  9. Role of Exchange Rate Volatility in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Import Prices: Some Evidence from Japan

    OpenAIRE

    Guneratne Banda Wickremasinghe; Param Silvapulle

    2004-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Japan for the period January 1975 to June 1997. Although several studies put forward theoretical arguments for the volatility-domestic import price relationship, only a very few studies produced empirical evidence. The volatility of contractual currency based exchange rate index returns was modelled using GARCH-type processes with skewed student t-distribution, capturing the typical n...

  10. Apparent exchange rate imaging in anisotropic systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sønderby, Casper Kaae; Lundell, Henrik M; Søgaard, Lise V

    2014-01-01

    Double-wave diffusion experiments offer the possibility of probing correlation between molecular diffusion at multiple time points. It has recently been shown that this technique is capable of measuring the exchange of water across cellular membranes. The aim of this study was to investigate...

  11. The Impact of Exchange Rate Variations on Trade Balance ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results further show that depreciation/devaluation improves trade balance and that Marshall-Learn (ML) condition holds for Nigeria. This is an indication that in Nigeria, exchange rate management may be regarded as a relevant tool for balance of trade adjustment. Keywords: Nigeria, Exchange Rate, ML Condition, ...

  12. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export pr...

  13. The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effect of exchange rate devaluation on selected agricultural export commodities in Nigeria. ... The overall results confirmed that in most cases, the lagged values of exchange rate devaluation had a significant and positive relationship with agricultural export commodities but of a higher magnitude in the Total agricultural ...

  14. Are international fund flows related to exchange rate dynamics?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, Suxiao; de Haan, Jakob; Scholtens, Bert

    2018-01-01

    Employing monthly data for 53 countries between 1996 and 2015, we investigate the relationship between international fund flows and exchange rate dynamics. We find strong co-movement between funds flows (as measured with the EPFR Global data base) and bilateral real exchange rates vis-à-vis the USD.

  15. EMU, Monetary Policy Interactions and Exchange Rate Stability

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P.A.D. Cavelaars

    2003-01-01

    textabstractThis memorandum discusses the possible impact of a monetary union in Europe on transatlantic exchange rate stability. EMU leads to the elimination of coordination failures within the euro area. Whether this translates into more stable exchange rates, depends on the origin of the shock.

  16. Exchange Rate Volatility, Currency Substitution and Monetary Policy ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article analyses the implications of currency substitution and exchange rate volatility for monetary policy in Nigeria. It adopts the unrestricted portfolio balance model of currency substitution, incorporating exchange rate volatility within the framework of the Vector Error Correction (VEC) technique. Results from both ...

  17. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    analysis to study the relationship between crude oil prices, exchange rate and stock market performance in ... movements, exchange rate behaviour and stock market performance in Nigeria. Studying the relationship ... additional income is transmitted back to the economy, then higher crude oil prices would be expected to ...

  18. Monetary models and exchange rate determination: The Nigerian ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. This paper estimates three different monetary models of exchange rate determination for the Nigerian economy using time series data. These include the Monetary ... Thus, the money supply process should be stable; otherwise, the exchange rate system in the country will be unstable. The policy significance in this ...

  19. Forecasting Exchange Rate Volatility in the Presence of Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study measures of foreign exchange rate volatility based on high-frequency (5-minute) $/DM exchange rate returns using recent nonparametric statistical techniquesto compute realized return volatility and its separate continuous sample path and jumpcomponents, and measures based on prices...... of exchange rate futures options, allowingcalculation of option implied volatility. We find that implied volatility is an informationallyefficient but biased forecast of future realized exchange rate volatility. Furthermore,we show that log-normality is an even better distributional approximation...... for impliedvolatility than for realized volatility in this market. Finally, we show that the jump componentof future realized exchange rate volatility is to some extent predictable, and thatoption implied volatility is the dominant forecast of the future jump component....

  20. Empirical Studies of Exchange Rates: Price Behavior, Rate Determinationand Market Efficiency

    OpenAIRE

    Richard M. Levich

    1983-01-01

    Theoretical and empirical research completed over the last decade has dramatically increased our understanding of exchange rate behavior. The major insight to come from this decade of research is that foreign exchange is a financial asset. In an asset pricing framework, current exchange rates reflect the expected values of future exogenous variables. The purpose of this paper is to survay the empirical evidence on exchange rate behavior, market efficiency and related topics. Section 2 present...

  1. Exchange rate risk in Central European countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kočenda, Evžen; Poghosyan, T.

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 1 (2010), s. 22-39 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA402/08/1376; GA MŠk LC542 Institutional research plan: CEZ:MSM0021620846 Keywords : foreign exchange risk * time-varying risk premium * stochastic discount factor Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor : 0.278, year: 2010 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1178_str_22_39_-_ko%C4%8Denda.pdf

  2. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  3. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  4. Current Account and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Firman Mochtar

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the role of both permanent and temporary factors in affecting the Indonesian current account and real exchange dynamics before and after 2000. Adopting Lee and Chinn (1998; 2006 approach as well as Chinn et al. (2007, two results stand out. First, we confirm that the behavior of the real exchange rate has altered since 2000. Identifications show that permanent shocks are the primary causes for the movement of the real exchange rate after 2000, while in the period before 2000, the Indonesian real exchange rate changes are characterized by greater dominance of temporary shocks. The apparent change in the real exchange rate behavior may be strongly justified by the implementation of free-floating exchange rate system since August 1997. Second, the shift of the real exchange rate behavior after 2000 does not necessarily affect the current account dynamics. Empirical evidence confirms that the variance of current account post 2000 remains largely due to temporary shocks. Albeit having increasing influence, permanent shocks have insignificant effect in explaining fluctuations of the current account. In this sense, the current account surplus after 2000 is attributed largely to nominal variables such as price increase, while the impact of productivity improvement is still limited.

  5. Macroeconomic stabilization and intervention policy under an exchange rate band

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, F.

    1998-01-01

    Macroeconomic stabilization and foreign exchange market interventions are investigated for a small open economy with a nominal exchange rate band. In a first-best situation, a band is not advisable from a stabilization perspective, even though with money demand shocks no welfare losses are incurred.

  6. A comparative study of United States and China exchange rate behavior: A co integration analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shafi

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rates always affect the prices of the imports and export of products and services in which countries are trading with other parts of the world. Therefore, exchange rate calculation is one of the essential issues for making appropriate policies. This research investigates the determinants of trade, i.e. import, export, industrial growth, consumption level and oil prices fluctuation, which bring changes in exchange rate and their influence eventually on balance of payments. Data of defined variables was collected on yearly basis for China and USA for thirty one years. By applying cointegration, it is estimated that there existed a long run relationship in both countries. USA and China had significant and correct signs on the short run dynamic and some of the factors did not. Exchange rate did not granger cause balance of payment and balance of payment did not granger cause exchange rate. In conclusion, we found that determinants of balance of trade could affect the exchange rates, also, these rates had considerable effect (positive or negative on balance of payments. In this twofold study, we found relationship of exchange rate with selected determinants of trade, and also examined their bilateral effect, and then made contrast of both countries.

  7. Impact Of Agriculture Output on Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Mukund Raj

    2003-01-01

    Agriculture accounts for USD 547 billion (approximately) of international trade, which means 9.1% of world merchandise trade and it constitutes 40.9% of world exports in primary products.In the coming decades the agricultural sector faces many challenges stemming from growing global populations, land degradation, and loss of cropland to urbanization. Although food production has been able to keep pace with population growth on the global scale, there are serious regional deficits, and poverty...

  8. Is the natural rate of growth exogenous?

    OpenAIRE

    Miguel Leon-Ledesma; Anthony P. Thirlwall

    2000-01-01

    In mainstream growth theory, including endogenous growth theory, the naturalrate of growth as defined by Harrod, is still treated as exogenous. In practice, however, both the growth of the labour force and the growth of labour productivity are endogenous to demand. This has theoretical implications for the adjustment process between the actual, warranted and natural growth rates. It also has serious implications for the way in which the growth process is viewed: whether from the supply side o...

  9. On equilibrium real exchange rates in euro area: Special focus on behavioral equilibrium exchange rates in Ireland and Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Klára Plecitá

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the intra-euro-area imbalances. Therefore the first aim of this paper is to identify euro-area countries exhibiting macroeconomic imbalances. The subsequent aim is to estimate equilibrium real exchange rates for these countries and to compute their degrees of real exchange rate misalignment. The intra-area balance is assessed using the Cluster Analysis and the Principle Component Analysis; on this basis Greece and Ireland are selected as the two euro-area countries with largest imbalances in 2010. Further the medium-run equilibrium exchange rates for Greece and Ireland are estimated applying the Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER approach popularised by Clark and MacDonald (1998. In addition, the long-run equilibrium exchange rates are estimated using the Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate (PEER model. Employing the BEER and PEER approaches on quarterly time series of real effective exchange rates (REER from 1997: Q1 to 2010: Q4 we identify an undervaluation of the Greek and Irish REER around their entrance to the euro area. For the rest of the period analysed their REER is broadly in line with estimated BEER and PEER levels.

  10. Rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Masanori; Poulson, Simon R

    2012-04-17

    The rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water was investigated at conditions of 10 to 80 °C and pH -0.6 to 4.4. Oxygen isotope exchange proceeds as a first-order reaction, and the exchange rate is strongly affected by reaction temperature and pH, with increased rates of isotope exchange at higher temperature and lower pH. Selenate speciation (HSeO(4)(-) vs SeO(4)(2-)) also has a significant effect on the rate of isotope exchange. The half-life for isotope exchange at example natural conditions (25 °C and pH 7) is estimated to be significantly in excess of 10(6) years. The very slow rate of oxygen isotope exchange between selenate and water under most environmental conditions demonstrates that selenate-δ(18)O signatures produced by biogeochemical processes will be preserved and hence that it will be possible to use the value of selenate-δ(18)O to investigate the biogeochemical behavior of selenate, in an analogous fashion to the use of sulfate-δ(18)O to study the biogeochemical behavior of sulfate.

  11. Nível do câmbio e crescimento econômico: teorias e evidências para países em desenvolvimento e emergentes Exchange rate levels and economic growth: theoretical analysis and empirical evidence for developing and emerging countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eliane Cristina de Araújo

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available O artigo analisa, teórica e empiricamente, a relação entre nível da taxa de câmbio e crescimento econômico nos países em desenvolvimento. Inicialmente, os objetivos da política cambial são discutidos, enfatizando sua importância como instrumento gerador de crescimento econômico. Dando continuidade, alguns canais de influência do nível da taxa de câmbio sobre o crescimento econômico são apontados: (i os canais do investimento; (ii da exportação dos bens não tradicionais; (iii do desempenho do setor de bens comercializáveis; (iv da compensação às falhas de mercado e falhas contratuais; e (v de estímulo às elasticidades-renda das exportações. Na parte empírica, uma medida de subvalorização cambial é construí-da para 82 países em desenvolvimento entre 1980 e 2007. Essa medida é empregada para captar a relação entre taxa de câmbio desvalorizada e crescimento econômico. Os resultados indicam uma correlação positiva e significante entre a medida de subvalorização cambial construída e o crescimento econômico nos países que fazem parte da amostra.The article analyses, theoretically and empirically, the relationship between exchange rate level and economic growth in emerging and developing countries. Firstly, the exchange rate policy objectives are discussed, emphasizing the importance of this policy to generate economic growth. Continuing, the article explores the channels through which exchange rates can affect economic growth, highlighting its stimulus to investment, export of non-traditional goods, productivity as well as its compensation to market failures and its stimulus to export income-elasticity. In the empirical part, a measure of exchange rate undervaluation based on Rodrik (2007 is built for 82 emerging and developing countries, between 1980 and 2007. This measure is used to investigate the relationship between devalued exchange rate and economic growth, by econometric techniques for panel data

  12. Noninvasive detection of gas exchange rate by near infrared spectroscopy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Guodong; Mao, Zongzhen; Wang, Bangde

    2008-12-01

    In order to study the relationship among the oxygen concentration in skeletal muscle tissues and the heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), respiratory exchange ratio (RER) during incremental running exercises on a treadmill, a near-infrared spectroscopy muscle oxygen monitor system is employed to measure the relative change in muscle oxygenation, with the heart rate, oxygen uptake, production of carbon dioxide (VCO2) and respiratory exchange ratio are recorded synchronously. The results indicate parameters mentioned above present regular changes during the incremental exercise. High correlations are discovered between relative change of oxy-hemoglobin concentration and heart rate, oxygen uptake, respiratory exchange ratio at the significance level (P=0.01). This research might introduce a new measurement technology and/or a novel biological monitoring parameter to the evaluation of physical function status, control the training intensity, estimation of the effectiveness of exercise. Keywords: near-infrared spectroscopy; muscle oxygen concentration; heart rate; oxygen uptake; respiratory exchange ratio.

  13. MONETARY SHOCKS AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE FLUCTUATIONS IN CEE COUNTRIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nataša Erjavec

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of the exchange rate regime in absorbing macroeconomic shocks for a group of Central and East European countries (CEE. Whether the flexible exchange rate regime is beneficial for an economy depends on the capacity of the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber. An appropriate framework for assessing the role of the exchange rate is a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR model. Impact of two types of macroeconomic shocks is estimated: nominal and real. The shocks are identified on the basis of Blanchard-Quah long run identification scheme which means that the restrictions are imposed on the long run responses while the short run dynamics is kept unrestricted. The importance of nominal and real shocks is assessed using the variance decomposition and the impulse response functions.

  14. Equilibrium exchange rate assessment in Serbia using the IMF external sustainability approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The exchange rate has always been a topical issue, particularly in the last two decades, at the time of strong world economy globalisation, as well as liberalization of international flows of goods, services and factors of production, which has resulted in stronger trade and financial integration. There has been a rise in the share of trade in world GDP. Growing developing countries contribute significantly to this growth, which is evident from the data that show increase of their share in world trade , as well as their importance in international capital flows. One of the most important concepts in open macroeconomics is the equilibrium real exchange rate - ERER. Deviations of the real exchange rate are considered to be the cause of the loss of competitiveness and economic slowdown, as well as possible currency crisis (overvaluation and undervaluation. Disadvantages of traditional concepts in exchange rate assessment which are very often reflected in unsuccessful empirical results, motivate experts to seek alternative models to assist in equilibrium exchange rate analysis. This paper aims to present one of three complementary methodologies used by the International Monetary Fund, for the equilibrium real exchange rate assessment in Serbia, as well as the deviation of the real exchange rate from its (estimated equilibrium, that is external sustainability approach.

  15. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey Chu

    Full Text Available Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  16. The effect of real exchange rate on unemployment

    OpenAIRE

    Zahra Bakhshi; Mehrzad Ebrahimi

    2016-01-01

    Unemployment is one of the problems that global economics, especially the economy of developing countries such as Iran is faced with. Therefore, there have been many studies to investigate the variables which affect unemployment in macroeconomics. Considering exchange rate volatility in recent years which have affected most of major variables of economy in Iran, this study tried to investigate the relationship between exchange rate and unemployment in Iran using the annual data of 30 years (f...

  17. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate. PMID:26222702

  18. Targeting the Real Exchange Rate; Theory and Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    Carlos A. Végh Gramont; Guillermo Calvo; Carmen Reinhart

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of policies aimed at setting a more depreciated level of the real exchange rate. An intertemporal optimizing model suggests that, in the absence of changes in fiscal policy, a more depreciated level of the real exchange can only be attained temporarily. This can be achieved by means of higher inflation and/or higher real interest rates, depending on the degree of capital mobility. Evidence for Brazil, Chile, and Colombia supports the mo...

  19. Trade Openness And Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Panel Data Evidence

    OpenAIRE

    César Calderón

    2004-01-01

    A recent strand of the literature, the so-called “New Open Economy Macroeconomics”, argues that nonmonetary factors have gained importance in explaining exchange rate volatility. In this context, it has been suggested the inclusion of shocks to productivity, terms of trade, and government spending, among others. The goal of the present paper is to explain the real exchange rate volatility by positing a structural relationship between volatility and its determinants. To perform our task we col...

  20. How Do Countries Choose their Exchange Rate Regime?

    OpenAIRE

    Helene Poirson Ward

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the determinants of exchange rate regime choice in 93 countries during 1990-98. Cross-country analysis of variations in international reserves and nominal exchange rates shows that (i) truly fixed pegs and independent floats differ significantly from other regimes and (ii) significant discrepancies exist between de jure and de facto flexibility. Regression results highlight the influence of political factors (political instability and government temptation to inflate),...

  1. Statistical Analysis of the Exchange Rate of Bitcoin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Jeffrey; Nadarajah, Saralees; Chan, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Bitcoin, the first electronic payment system, is becoming a popular currency. We provide a statistical analysis of the log-returns of the exchange rate of Bitcoin versus the United States Dollar. Fifteen of the most popular parametric distributions in finance are fitted to the log-returns. The generalized hyperbolic distribution is shown to give the best fit. Predictions are given for future values of the exchange rate.

  2. Asymmetric behavior of exchange rate pass through in Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Şen, Bahar

    2009-01-01

    Ankara : The Department of Economics, Bilkent University, 2009. Thesis (Master's) -- Bilkent University, 2009. Includes bibliographical references leaves 43-48. This thesis investigates the presence of asymmetry in pass through from exchange rates to manufacturing industry prices in Turkey. In the analysis, to detect a possible nonlinear response of prices, threshold regression models are employed. The results indicate that reactions of prices to exchange rate movements diff...

  3. Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Equation in Indonesia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pasasa, Linus; Fechter, Nadine; Bustaman, Yosman

    2010-12-01

    This paper examines the characteristics of short-term and long-term fluctuations/volatility of Indonesia exchange rate and investigates whether this volatility has affected Indonesia's exports flows. In particular the paper investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on aggregate Indonesia exports flows to the United State and also on imports. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test was employed on quarterly data for the period January 2000 to December 2008 to test for stationarity on the variables of interest. Estimates of the long-term influence of exchange rate volatility on the trade flows are obtained using the Johansen Cointegration Test. The results suggest that a significant long-term relationship linking exchange rate volatility and the trade volume between Indonesia and the United States exists. A negative long-term relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the export volume sent from Indonesia to the US is obtained. On the other hand, exchange rate volatility exerts a positive long-term effect upon the import volume.

  4. Capital Controls and the Real Exchange Rate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.J.G.

    1990-01-01

    Capital import taxes lower (raise) world (home) interest rates. This shifts home expenditure from the present to the future and foreign expenditure from the future to today. With identical home and foreign expenditure patterns, the change in the composition of world expenditure has no effects on

  5. Econometric Analysis of Croatia’s Proclaimed Foreign Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mance Davor

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The officially proclaimed foreign exchange policy of the Croatian National Bank (CNB is a managed float with a discretionary right of intervention on the Croatian kuna/euro foreign exchange (FX market in order to maintain price stability. This paper examines the validity of three monetary policy hypotheses: the stability of the nominal exchange rate, the stability of exchange rate changes, and the exchange rate to inflation pass-through effect. The CNB claims a direct FX to inflation rate pass-through channel for which we find no evidence, but we find a strong link between FX rate changes and changes in M4, as well as between M4 changes and inflation. Changes in foreign investment Granger cause changes in monetary aggregates that further Granger cause inflation. Changes in FX rate Granger cause a reaction in M4 that indirectly Granger causes a further rise in inflation. Vector Autoregression Impulse Response Functions of changes in FX rate, M1, M4, and CPI confirm the Granger causalities in the established order.

  6. Dynamic Models of Learning That Characterize Parent-Child Exchanges Predict Vocabulary Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ober, David R.; Beekman, John A.

    2016-01-01

    Cumulative vocabulary models for infants and toddlers were developed from models of learning that predict trajectories associated with low, average, and high vocabulary growth rates (14 to 46 months). It was hypothesized that models derived from rates of learning mirror the type of exchanges provided to infants and toddlers by parents and…

  7. Modeling inflation rates and exchange rates in Ghana: application of multivariate GARCH models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nortey, Ezekiel Nn; Ngoh, Delali D; Doku-Amponsah, Kwabena; Ofori-Boateng, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    This paper was aimed at investigating the volatility and conditional relationship among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates as well as to construct a model using multivariate GARCH DCC and BEKK models using Ghana data from January 1990 to December 2013. The study revealed that the cumulative depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar from 1990 to 2013 is 7,010.2% and the yearly weighted depreciation of the cedi to the US dollar for the period is 20.4%. There was evidence that, the fact that inflation rate was stable, does not mean that exchange rates and interest rates are expected to be stable. Rather, when the cedi performs well on the forex, inflation rates and interest rates react positively and become stable in the long run. The BEKK model is robust to modelling and forecasting volatility of inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The DCC model is robust to model the conditional and unconditional correlation among inflation rates, exchange rates and interest rates. The BEKK model, which forecasted high exchange rate volatility for the year 2014, is very robust for modelling the exchange rates in Ghana. The mean equation of the DCC model is also robust to forecast inflation rates in Ghana.

  8. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate on Employment in Albania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmira Cakrani

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Unemployment is a big economical and social issue for each country, in particular for Albania, which is a country that comes from a centralized system where the state ensured full employment. In the struggle of applying the transition to market economy, each government had to face the two-digit levels of unemployment. Because of this, the application of the right policies in order to decrease the level of unemployment has been in the centre of the program of each government in Albania. The objective of this paper is to show if the undervaluation or overvaluation of the real exchange rate can affect in a significant way the level of employment in Albania and that to answer the question, if the real exchange rate can be used as a political instrument for the reduction of the level of unemployment. There are relatively few works that study the impact of real exchange rate on the Albanian economy and in my knowledge there is not a previous work on employment and real exchange rate relationship in Albania, so this can be considered as the first study that attempt to assess this relationship. To evaluate the link between the real exchange rate and the level of employment the Johansen procedure and Vector Error Correction Term method is used. The result of the study demonstrates not statistically significant impact of real exchange rate on level of employment, suggesting that the increase of competition of the country through the real exchange rate doesn’t improve the condition of the employment in Albania, so the Albanian government should implement other strategies to increase the level of employment in the country.

  9. Exchange rate behavior with negative interest rates: Some early negative observations

    OpenAIRE

    Hameed, Allaudeen S.; Rose, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines exchange rate behavior during the recent period with negative nominal interest rates. We use a daily panel of data on 61 currencies from January 2010 through May 2016, during which five economies - Denmark, the European Economic and Monetary Union, Japan, Sweden, and Switzerland - experienced negative nominal interest rates. We examine both effective exchange rates and bilateral rates; the latter typically measured against the Swiss franc since Switzerland has had the long...

  10. Football and exchange rates: empirical support for behavioral economics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eker, Gulin; Berument, Hakan; Dogan, Burak

    2007-10-01

    Recently, economic theory has been expanded to incorporate emotions, which have been assumed to play an important role in financial decisions. The present study illustrates this by showing a connection between the sports performance of popular national football teams (Besiktas, Fenerbahce, and Galatasaray) and performance of the Turkish economy. Specifically, a significant positive association was found between the success of three major professional Turkish football teams and the exchange rate of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar. The effect of the football success of several Turkish football teams on the exchange rate of the Turkish lira was examined using the simultaneous multiple regression model with predictor measures of wins, losses, and ties for different combinations of teams to predict the depreciation rate of the Turkish lira between the years 1987 and 2003. Wins by Turkish football teams against foreign (non-Turkish) rivals increased with exchange rate depreciation of the Turkish lira against the U.S. dollar.

  11. Exchange Rates and U.S. Auto Competitiveness

    OpenAIRE

    J. David Richardson

    1987-01-01

    This paper develops unique disaggregated data for three U.S. automakers and three Japanese to assess how changes in exchange rates, factor costs, and voluntary export restraints have affected recent price competitiveness in the U.S. passenger car market. We find support for several familiar relationships. The support provided by the experience of the late 1970s is straightforward. The dollar's foreign- exchange value fell below its historical trend, in both nominal and cost- adjusted (real) t...

  12. Short-run Exchange-Rate Dynamics: Theory and Evidence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlson, John A.; Dahl, Christian Møller; Osler, Carol L.

    for designing exchange-rate models. This paper presents an optimizing model of short-run exchange-rate dynamics consistent with both the micro evidence and the macro evidence, the first such model of which we are aware. With respect to microeconomics, the model is consistent with the institutional structure...... of currency markets, it accurately reflects the constraints and objectives faced by the major participants, and it fits key stylized facts concerning returns and order flow. With respect to macroeconomics, the model is consistent with most of the major puzzles that have emerged under floating rates....

  13. The determinants of exchange rates and the movements of EUR/RON exchange rate via non-linear stochastic processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petrică Andreea-Cristina

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Modeling exchange rate volatility became an important topic for research debate starting with 1973, when many countries switched to floating exchange rate system. In this paper, we focus on the EUR/RON exchange rate both as an economic measure and present the implied economic links, and also as a financial investment and analyze its movements and fluctuations through two volatility stochastic processes: the Standard Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (GARCH and the Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic Model (EGARCH. The objective of the conditional variance processes is to capture dependency in the return series of the EUR/RON exchange rate. On this account, analyzing exchange rates could be seen as the input for economic decisions regarding Romanian macroeconomics - the exchange rates being influenced by many factors such as: interest rates, inflation, trading relationships with other countries (imports and exports, or investments - portfolio optimization, risk management, asset pricing. Therefore, we talk about political stability and economic performance of a country that represents a link between the two types of inputs mentioned above and influences both the macroeconomics and the investments. Based on time-varying volatility, we examine implied volatility of daily returns of EUR/RON exchange rate using the standard GARCH model and the asymmetric EGARCH model, whose parameters are estimated through the maximum likelihood method and the error terms follow two distributions (Normal and Student’s t. The empirical results show EGARCH(2,1 with Asymmetric order 2 and Student’s t error terms distribution performs better than all the estimated standard GARCH models (GARCH(1,1, GARCH(1,2, GARCH(2,1 and GARCH(2,2. This conclusion is supported by the major advantage of the EGARCH model compared to the GARCH model which consists in allowing good and bad news having different impact on the

  14. Fiscal Policy and Welfare under Different Exchange Rate Regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østrup, Finn

    The article analyses how government spending is determined under differentexchange rate regimes in the context of a small open economy. Assumingnominal wage contracts which last for one period and assuming a benevolentgovernment which determines government spending to optimise a representativeind......The article analyses how government spending is determined under differentexchange rate regimes in the context of a small open economy. Assumingnominal wage contracts which last for one period and assuming a benevolentgovernment which determines government spending to optimise...... a representativeindividual's utility, it is demonstrated that there are differences betweenexchange rate regimes with respect to the level of government spending. Thesedifferences arise first because a rise in government spending affects macroeconomicvariables differently under different exchange rate regimes......, and secondbecause the government's inclination to expand government spending is affectedby inflation which depends on the exchange rate regime. At low rates of inflation,the government is inclined to set a higher level of government spending under afixed exchange rate regime than under a floating exchange rate...

  15. A re-examination of the exchange rate overshooting hypothesis

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    kirstam

    employed the ARDL model, which allows for variables of different integration orders to be examined in the same ... determined rate following the introduction of the broad-based interbank foreign exchange rate system in Zambia ... overshooting hypothesis for Taiwan and Turkey, respectively. This study should fill the gap in ...

  16. Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation Uncertainty and Foreign Direct ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-10-07

    Oct 7, 2008 ... During this period, the economy recorded wide fluctuation in exchange rate and inflation rate uncertainty ... Figure 2 shows the total inflow of FDI into the Nigerian economy, while Figure 3 shows the ..... Albuquerque, R. (2000) The Composition of International Capital flows: Risk Sharing through Foreign ...

  17. Growth and gas exchange in the cowpea under saline irrigation and rates of potassium = Crescimento e trocas gasosas de plantas de feijão-caupi sob irrigação salina e doses de potássio

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stella da Silva Prazeres

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The intensity of the stress caused in crops by salinity will largely depend on the level of tolerance of the species or cultivar, and on the management strategies used. The aim of this study therefore, was to evaluate growth and physiological response in two cultivars of the cowpea, irrigated with saline water and subjected to different levels of potassium under sheltered conditions. Seeds of the cultivars, EC 790 and EC 104 were used, which were exposed to increasing levels of salinity, using irrigation water with an electrical conductivity (CEa of 0.8, 2.2, 3.6 and 5.0 dS m-1, and increasing rates of potassium (K in the form of KCl (0.5,1.0, 2.0 and 4.0 g KCl per pot. Readings were taken of leaf gas exchange and plant growth (length of main stem, stem diameter and total dry matter at 47 and 55 days after planting (DAP respectively. Increases in the salinity of the irrigation water reduced the length of the main stem, the stem diameter and total dry matter in both cultivars. The larger levels of potassium together with the salinity resulted in a depressive effect on the growth of the main stem and on stomatal conductance, compared to the isolated effect of salinity, indicating an enhanced osmotic effect. The existence of an interaction between salinity and potassium is an indication that the optimal level of the nutrient depends on salinity levels in the root zone of the plants, and is important information in the management of crops in saline environments. = A intensidade do estresse causado pela salinidade nas culturas irá depender, principalmente, do nível de tolerância da espécie ou cultivar e das estratégias de manejo utilizadas. Dessa forma, objetivou-se com este trabalho avaliar o crescimento e as respostas fisiológicas de duas cultivares de feijão-caupi, irrigadas com água salina e submetidas a diferentes níveis de potássio, em condições de ambiente protegido. Foram utilizadas sementes das cultivares CE 790 e CE 104, as

  18. Impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martins Iyoboyi

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper investigates the impact of exchange rate depreciation on the balance of payments (BOP in Nigeria over the period 1961–2012. The analysis is based on a multivariate vector error correction framework. A long-term equilibrium relationship was found between BOP, exchange rate and other associated variables. The empirical results are in favour of bidirectional causality between BOP and other variables employed. Results of the generalized impulse response functions suggest that one standard deviation innovation on exchange rate reduces positive BOP in the medium and long term, while results of the variance decomposition indicate that a significant variation in Nigeria’s BOP is not due to changes in exchange rate movements. The policy implication is that exchange rate depreciation which has been preponderant in Nigeria since the mid-1980s has not been very useful in promoting the country’s positive BOP. It is recommended that growth in the real sector should be improved to enhance exports, create employment, curb inflation and reduce poverty, while cutting non-productive imports, attracting foreign private investment and implementing well coordinated macroeconomic policies that impact inflation positively and stimulate exchange rate stability.

  19. Does the Nominal Exchange Rate Explain the Backus-Smith Puzzle? Evidence from the Eurozone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hadzi-Vaskov, M.

    2007-01-01

    The negative correlation between relative consumption growth and real exchange rate changes is a recurrent puzzle in international macroeconomics (Backus and Smith, 1993). Using panel dataset with quarterly observations for all 12 countries from the Eurozone after the introduction of the common

  20. Expanding Decent Employment in Kenya: The Role of Monetary Policy, Inflation Control, and the Exchange Rate

    OpenAIRE

    Robert Pollin; James Heintz

    2007-01-01

    This IPC Country Study by Robert Pollin and James Heintz examines three policy areas related to monetary policies in Kenya: inflation dynamics and the relationship between inflation and long-run growth; monetary policy targets and instruments; and exchange rate dynamics and the country?s external balance. It concludes with five main policy recommendations

  1. Evidence of multifractality from CEE exchange rates against Euro

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caraiani, Petre; Haven, Emmanuel

    2015-02-01

    The multifractal spectrum of a time series can be ascertained with a number of techniques, some based on wavelets, others based on the much newer (multifractal) detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We test for the presence of multifractality in daily data on selected exchange rates from Central and Eastern European economies against EURO. The approach is based on a slight modification of the MF-DFA analysis in that local trends are not allowed to be polynomially fitted but rather are estimated through a sifting process which is established through a so called Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) algorithm. We assess the drivers of the multifractal spectrum strength, like temporal correlations or distributions based on surrogate data. Another topic discussed is whether the entrance in the exchange rate mechanism ERM II influenced the multifractality of the exchange rates.

  2. Modeling and predicting historical volatility in exchange rate markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahmiri, Salim

    2017-04-01

    Volatility modeling and forecasting of currency exchange rate is an important task in several business risk management tasks; including treasury risk management, derivatives pricing, and portfolio risk evaluation. The purpose of this study is to present a simple and effective approach for predicting historical volatility of currency exchange rate. The approach is based on a limited set of technical indicators as inputs to the artificial neural networks (ANN). To show the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to forecast US/Canada and US/Euro exchange rates volatilities. The forecasting results show that our simple approach outperformed the conventional GARCH and EGARCH with different distribution assumptions, and also the hybrid GARCH and EGARCH with ANN in terms of mean absolute error, mean of squared errors, and Theil's inequality coefficient. Because of the simplicity and effectiveness of the approach, it is promising for US currency volatility prediction tasks.

  3. Trade balance instability and the optimal exchange rate regime: The case of OPEC countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aljerrah, M.A.

    1993-01-01

    The OPEC members have experienced wide fluctuations in their trade balances. This can be attributed to several factors: (1) heavy dependence of national income and export earnings on a single primary export-oil; (2) instability of price and world demand for oil; and (3) the exchange rate regime practiced in recent years. An exchange rate policy can be used to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance, given the changes in exchange rates of major international currencies. The purpose of this study is two fold; first, examine the effects of fluctuations in trade balance on the OPEC economies, and second, propose appropriate exchange rate regime for selected OPEC members. The study is divided into two parts. The first part demonstrates the impact of trade balance changes on national income and other macroeconomic variables using a Keynesian framework. The second part involves using conventional trade models to search for the appropriate exchange rate regime to minimize the fluctuations in trade balance of each selective country. The study's findings are: first, fluctuations in trade balances had negative effects on the economics of Algeria, Kuwait, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Second, the current exchange rate regime of no sample country is optimal in minimizing trade balance fluctuations. Third, in contrast to expectations, U.S. dollar peg did not stabilize the trade balance of any OPEC member. Finally, the results show that the sample OPEC economies could have enjoyed faster - though with different degree - economic growth if they had pegged their currencies to the derived optimal exchange rate regime. These optimal exchange rate regimes are: the SDR for Algeria and the United Arab Emirates, the purchasing power parity for Libya and Saudi Arabia, and the real Yen for Kuwait.

  4. Currency wars, what drives the wild fluctuations in exchange rates?

    OpenAIRE

    Petridis, George; Πετρίδης, Γεώργιος

    2016-01-01

    Currency wars or competitive devaluation has change dramatically throughout history. The meaning of currency wars is completely different in comparison with that before the change of currency rates system. Firstly, in my thesis, there will be a brief history of currency wars and a reference of quantitative easing in US, Europe and Japan. Then the factors which determine the currency exchange rates and the reasons for the wild fluctuation in currency rates during a currency war will be mention...

  5. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  6. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; de Castro, Marcio T.; da Fonseca, Regina C. B.; Gleria, Iram

    2013-10-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers-Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  7. Diffusion equations and the time evolution of foreign exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Figueiredo, Annibal; Castro, Marcio T. de; Fonseca, Regina C.B. da; Gleria, Iram

    2013-01-01

    We investigate which type of diffusion equation is most appropriate to describe the time evolution of foreign exchange rates. We modify the geometric diffusion model assuming a non-exponential time evolution and the stochastic term is the sum of a Wiener noise and a jump process. We find the resulting diffusion equation to obey the Kramers–Moyal equation. Analytical solutions are obtained using the characteristic function formalism and compared with empirical data. The analysis focus on the first four central moments considering the returns of foreign exchange rate. It is shown that the proposed model offers a good improvement over the classical geometric diffusion model.

  8. CONTINUOUS MODELING OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE OF USD VERSUS TRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yakup Arı

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to construct continuous-time autoregressive (CAR model and continuous-time GARCH (COGARCH model from discrete time data of foreign exchange rate of United States Dollar (USD versus Turkish Lira (TRY. These processes are solutions to stochastic differential equation Lévy-driven processes. We have shown that CAR(1 and COGARCH(1,1 processes are proper models to represent foreign exchange rate of USD and TRY for different periods of time February 2002- June 2010.

  9. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  10. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  11. THE IMPLICATIONS OF VARYING EXCHANGE RATES FOR THE INTERNATIONAL TRADE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandu Carmen

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The benefit of international trade is a more efficient employment of the productive forces of the world. (John Stuart Mill The exchange rate is a primary factor that influences economy. This instrument is used by some countries in order to improve the lack of balance caused as a result of the financial crisis felt in many countries considered by then infallible. The negative effects of the financial crisis can also be found in the decreased volume of commodities involved in international trade exchanges, as a consequence of modified prices and decreased offer. The globalizing trend leads to a constant expansion of exchanges between countries and to the consolidation of international cooperation. Except that economic interdependence generates an increased risk under the influence of economic, financial, monetary or political factors. The currency risk can generate either a gain or loss during foreign trade operations. The long period of RON depreciation made possible the entry of Romanian products on the international markets due to their prices. Sheltered by the gain generated by the evolution of the exchange rate, most of the exporters were not concerned by the increase of product competitiveness or by avoiding the currency risk. The fact that, for many years, the evolution of the exchange rate generated substantial losses for the exporters shows that risk coverage in Romania is, in most cases, a purely theoretical concept.

  12. Exchange rates of creatine kinase metabolites: feasibility of imaging creatine by chemical exchange saturation transfer MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haris, Mohammad; Nanga, Ravi Prakash Reddy; Singh, Anup; Cai, Kejia; Kogan, Feliks; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

    2012-11-01

    Creatine (Cr), phosphocreatine (PCr) and adenosine-5-triphosphate (ATP) are major metabolites of the enzyme creatine kinase (CK). The exchange rate of amine protons of CK metabolites at physiological conditions has been limited. In the current study, the exchange rate and logarithmic dissociation constant (pKa) of amine protons of CK metabolites were calculated. Further, the chemical exchange saturation transfer effect (CEST) of amine protons of CK metabolites with bulk water was explored. At physiological temperature and pH, the exchange rate of amine protons in Cr was found to be 7-8 times higher than PCr and ATP. A higher exchange rate in Cr was associated with lower pKa value, suggesting faster dissociation of its amine protons compared to PCr and ATP. CEST MR imaging of these metabolites in vitro in phantoms displayed predominant CEST contrast from Cr and negligible contribution from PCr and ATP with the saturation pulse parameters used in the current study. These results provide a new method to perform high-resolution proton imaging of Cr without contamination from PCr. Potential applications of these finding are discussed. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Growth, Photosynthetic Efficiency, Rate of Transpiration, Lodging ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth, Photosynthetic Efficiency, Rate of Transpiration, Lodging, and Grain Yield of Tef ( Eragrostis Tef (Zucc) Trotter ) as Influenced by Stage and Rate of Paclobutrazol ... Paclobutrazol treatment had reduced plant height and total leaf area there by reduced excessive vegetative growth and lodging percentage.

  14. Foreign exchange rate entropy evolution during financial crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stosic, Darko; Stosic, Dusan; Ludermir, Teresa; de Oliveira, Wilson; Stosic, Tatijana

    2016-05-01

    This paper examines the effects of financial crises on foreign exchange (FX) markets, where entropy evolution is measured for different exchange rates, using the time-dependent block entropy method. Empirical results suggest that financial crises are associated with significant increase of exchange rate entropy, reflecting instability in FX market dynamics. In accordance with phenomenological expectations, it is found that FX markets with large liquidity and large trading volume are more inert - they recover quicker from a crisis than markets with small liquidity and small trading volume. Moreover, our numerical analysis shows that periods of economic uncertainty are preceded by periods of low entropy values, which may serve as a tool for anticipating the onset of financial crises.

  15. Alarming of exchange rate crisis: A risk management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Zhao

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, with increasing volatility of foreign exchange rate, risk management becomes more and more important not only for multinational companies and individuals but also for central governments. This paper attempts to build an econometrics model so as to forecast and manage risks in foreign exchange market, especially during the eve of turbulent periods. By following McNeil and Frey’s (2000 two stage approach called conditional EVT to estimate dynamic VaR commonly used in stock and insurance markets, we extend it by applying a more general asymmetric ARMA-GARCH model to analyze daily foreign exchange dollar-denominated trading data from four countries of different development levels across Asia and Europe for a period of more than 10 years from January 03, 2005 to May 29, 2015, which is certainly representative of global markets. Conventionally, different kinds of backtesting methods are implemented ultimately to evaluate how well the model behaves. Inspiringly, test results show that by taking several specific characteristics (including fat-tails, asymmetry and long-range dependence of the foreign exchange market return data into consideration, the violation ratio of out-of-sample data can be forecasted very well for both fixed and flexible foreign exchange regimes. Moreover, all of the violations are evenly distributed along the whole period which indicates another favorable property of our model. Meanwhile, we find evidence of asymmetry volatility in all of the studied foreign exchange markets even though the magnitudes of the most of them are weak

  16. Growth Rates of Microbes in the Oceans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirchman, David L.

    2016-01-01

    A microbe's growth rate helps to set its ecological success and its contribution to food web dynamics and biogeochemical processes. Growth rates at the community level are constrained by biomass and trophic interactions among bacteria, phytoplankton, and their grazers. Phytoplankton growth rates are approximately 1 d-1, whereas most heterotrophic bacteria grow slowly, close to 0.1 d-1; only a few taxa can grow ten times as fast. Data from 16S rRNA and other approaches are used to speculate about the growth rate and the life history strategy of SAR11, the most abundant clade of heterotrophic bacteria in the oceans. These strategies are also explored using genomic data. Although the methods and data are imperfect, the available data can be used to set limits on growth rates and thus on the timescale for changes in the composition and structure of microbial communities.

  17. Statistics of exchange rate regimes in Nigeria | Iwueze | Global ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The three distinct exchange rate regimes of Nigeria were subjected to Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling in order to compare them with respect to model structure. It was found that the three regimes admit different models. Regime one admits Moving average model of order 2, Regime two admits ...

  18. Evaluation of Exchange Rate Policy on Agricultural Trade in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of exchange rate policy on agricultural trade in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for the study and were analyzed using multiple regression analysis and correlation analysis. Data were collected from 12970-2003. The regression resul ofts showed total output of cocoa, ...

  19. Exchange Rate Reform Policies and Trade Balances in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigates the effect of the exchange rate on the trade balance in Nigeria between 1970 and 2012. Annual data were collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria's Statistical Bulletin, and World Development Indicator of the World Bank. Co-integrating and Error Correcting Method were used for this estimation.

  20. Measuring The Real Exchange Rate Misalignment Of Ethiopia: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical estimation results conclude that, terms of trade (TOT), external aid inflows (ODA), commercial policy stance (CPS) and investment to GDP ratio were found to influence the long-run real exchange rate in the case of Ethiopia. However, variables such as nominal devaluation and real money supply found to have ...

  1. Exchange rates, petroleum prices and price determination in Sierra ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Sierra Leone economy is a net importer with a chronic negative balance of trade and imports as a percentage of GDP averaged 40.75 per cent between 2001 and 2010. This study determined the effects of monetary environment, exchange rate movement and petroleum prices on domestic prices in Sierra Leone by ...

  2. Intervention analysis of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate | Mosugu ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper investigated the impact of Nigeria's foreign exchange rate using classical multiple regression model under the assumptions of ordinary least squares method (OLS) and intervention model ... A useful approach is to test the significant change between the long-run mean effect before and after each intervention.

  3. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Performance in Nigeria. ... African Research Review ... As expected from an oil exporting country, a short-run positive relationship is observed between the Nigerian stock market and crude oil prices and the direction is from crude oil prices to ...

  4. Implications of Exchange Rate Dynamics and External Reserve for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In this paper, we examined the impact of exchange rate dynamics and external reserve on inflation and investment in Nigeria between the period 1970 – 2009, using a combination of ordinary least squares, augmented dickey fuller unit root test and the co- integration test. The changes in external reserve had a positive ...

  5. Volatility Analysis of Exchange Rate of Emerging Economies: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this study is to analyze the volatility of exchange rates of the currencies of the five East African Community (EAC) countries. Time series modeling is applied to the data of these countries. Various models were fitted and compared using Maximum Likelihood approach in order to select the best fitting model for each ...

  6. Modeling Exchange Rate Heteroskedasticity in Nigeria (1986-2008 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    On this basis, the study modelled the consistency and persistency of exchange rate hetroskedasticity of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The ARCH and GARCH models were used to examine the degree of volatility using the first difference, standard ...

  7. Emission trading in Europe with an exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klassen, G.A.J.; Amann, M.; Foersund, F.R.

    1994-01-01

    The analytical and empirical properties of a new method for emission trading according to a fixed exchange rate are explored. The exchange rate is based on the ratios of the marginal costs of abatement in the optimal solution in order to account for the impact of the location of emission sources on the deposition. It is shown that, generally, this system will not achieve the optimal solution and does not guarantee that environmental deposition constraints are not violated, although total abatement costs are always reduced. A routine was developed to mimic trading as a bilateral, sequential process, subject to an exchange rate. Use has been made of an adapted version of the optimization module in the RAINS (REgional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model. In the example used, results for SO 2 emissions in Europe show that, starting from a uniform reduction, exchange-rate trading achieves higher cost savings than one-to-one trading, without achieving the cost minimum. Sulfur deposition targets are not violated since the initial emission allocation overfulfilled targets at many places. The results are sensitive to: pre-trade emission levels, the transaction costs, the availability of information on potential cost savings and assumptions made on the behavior of trading partners. 6 figs., 3 tabs., 28 refs

  8. exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Eyerusalem

    Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Vol XXI No 2, October 2012. 95. However, exchange rates are by definition the relative prices of currencies and are endogenous variables in which their value gets determined within a general equilibrium context, alongside other asset prices. (Campa et al., 2005:3). The second strand of ...

  9. The limiting distribution of extremal exchange rate yields

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.C.A.B. Hols (Martien); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1991-01-01

    textabstractSeveral nonnested fat-tailed distributions have been advocated for modelling exchange rate returns. Instead of directly estimating these nonnested distributions we investigate the extremal distribution of the returns. The advantage is that the parameter which characterizes the amount of

  10. Exchange rate movement and import price of Machineries in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The empirical estimates reveal that one lag variability of import price, exchange rate, foreign cost, domestic competitors price and demand pressure proxied by GDP impact it in the long-run. However, the ECM coefficient is properly signed with -0.549. By implication, approximately 54% of the discrepancy from long run ...

  11. Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2013-01-01

    This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

  12. Currency option pricing in a credible exchange rate target zone

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veestraeten, D.

    2012-01-01

    This article examines currency option pricing within a credible target zone arrangement where interventions at the boundaries push the exchange rate back into its fluctuation band. Valuation of such options is complicated by the requirement that the reflection mechanism should prevent the arbitrage

  13. Government spending shocks, sovereign risk and the exchange rate regime

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bonam, D.; Lukkezen, J.H.J.

    2014-01-01

    Keynesian theory predicts output responses upon a fiscal expansion in a small open economy to be larger under fixed than floating exchange rates. We analyse the effects of fiscal expansions using a New Keynesian model and find that the reverse holds in the presence of sovereign default risk. By

  14. Impact of Exchange Rate on Balance of Payment in Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exchange rate policies have to be used along with the fiscal and monetary instruments to get meaningful results. This implies that our balance of payments problems can be solved simultaneously from two angles, namely, boosting supply and managing demand. Export diversification and promotion, import substitution and ...

  15. Modeling the exchange rate using price levels and country risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gábor Regős

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds two factor discrete time models in order to investigate the effect of sovereign risk on the nominal exchange rates in a Markov switching framework. The empirical section of the paper uses seven currencies from Chile, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Iceland, Japan, Korea, and Mexico. To measure the sovereign risk, we use the credit rating agencies’ ratings classes as proxy variable. In the empirical part, four different versions of the model are calibrated and their in-sample and out-of-sample data will be analyzed leading to the conclusion that none of the four versions dominates the others. As an additional result, it is revealed that risk has significant effect on the nominal exchange rates.

  16. Monetary Policy with Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-Through

    OpenAIRE

    Adolfson, Malin

    2001-01-01

    The central bank's optimal reaction to foreign and domestic shocks is analyzed in an inflation targeting model allowing for incomplete exchange rate pass-through. Limited pass-through is incorporated through nominal rigidities in an aggregate supply-aggregate demand model derived from some microfoundations. Three main results are obtained. First, the results suggest that the interest rate response to foreign shocks is smaller when pass-through is low. Second, the inflation-output variability ...

  17. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka [Helsinki Univ. (Finland). Lab. of Radiochemistry

    2016-11-01

    Radiocarbon ({sup 14}C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO{sub 3}) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of {sup 14}C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  18. Rate of radiocarbon retention onto calcite by isotope exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lempinen, Janne; Lehto, Jukka

    2016-01-01

    Radiocarbon ( 14 C) is a top priority class radionuclide associated with the long-term safety of spent nuclear fuel disposal. Dissolved inorganic radiocarbon can be retained in bedrock via isotope exchange with calcite (CaCO 3 ) at solubility equilibrium with groundwater. In the present study, the rate of the isotope exchange process was investigated on synthetic calcite using batch experiments. Experiments were performed in solutions with a calcium concentration of 0.0002-0.1 M, including two synthetic reference groundwaters. The radiocarbon activity in the solutions decreased exponentially as a function of time, thus following first-order kinetics. The rate of isotope exchange was quantified from an exponential fit to the activity data over time. The rate of radiocarbon retention increased as a function of the calcium activity. The isotope exchange half-life was only 4.3 days at calcium ion activities over 0.01. This half-life is very much shorter than the half-life of 14 C or the time scale of groundwater movements; consequently calcite can effectively retain radiocarbon from brackish and saline groundwaters.

  19. Long-memory exchange rate dynamics in the euro era

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barkoulas, John T.; Barilla, Anthony G.; Wells, William

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the long-run dynamics of a system of eight major exchange rates in the euro era using both integer and fractional cointegration methodologies. Contrary to the fragile evidence in the pre-euro era, robust evidence of linear cointegratedness is obtained in the foreign exchange market during the euro era. Upon closer examination, deviations from the cointegrating relationship exhibit nonstationary, long-memory dynamic behavior (Joseph effect). We find the long-memory evidence to be temporally stable in the most recent era. Finally, the foreign exchange system dynamics appears to be characterized by less persistence (smaller fractional exponent) in the euro era (as compared to pre-euro time periods), potentially indicating increased policy coordination by central banks in the recent period.

  20. Exchange Rate Regimes – A periodical overview and a critical analysis of exchange rate regimes in Kosovo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flamur Bunjaku

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate regimes and the monetary policy are the key instruments governments use to achieve their economic and financial objectives. Moreover, due to global financial crisis the latter instruments get more importance. Empirical evidences show that exchange rate regimes in Kosovo and its monetary policy throughout their development were mainly influenced by different political and historical developments. In regard of Euroisation of monetary system in Kosovo it was found that this action generated macro - financial stability in terms of inflation and price fluctuation. However, in terms of microeconomic aspects, the unilateral adaptation of Euro as the official currency of Kosovo failed to provide microeconomic advantages such as to export stimulation, and so forth. The main exchange rate regime systems were discussed focusing in their advantages and disadvantages, and it was concluded that there is no commonly accepted theory regarding the optimality of exchange rate regimes. In addition, the global financial crisis impact in the financial system of Kosovo is also discussed and it was found that negative impacts of global financial crisis were moderate and indirect.

  1. Sensitivity of molecular vibrational dynamics to energy exchange rate constants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Billing, G D; Coletti, C; Kurnosov, A K; Napartovich, A P

    2003-01-01

    The sensitivity of molecular vibrational population dynamics, governing the CO laser operated in fundamental and overtone transitions, to vibration-to-vibration rate constants is investigated. With this aim, three rate constant sets have been used, differing in their completeness (i.e. accounting for single-quantum exchange only, or for multi-quantum exchange with a limited number of rate constants obtained by semiclassical calculations, and, finally, with an exhaustive set of rate constants including asymmetric exchange processes, as well) and in the employed interaction potential. The most complete set among these three is introduced in this paper. An existing earlier kinetic model was updated to include the latter new data. Comparison of data produced by kinetic modelling with the above mentioned sets of rate constants shows that the vibrational distribution function, and, in particular, the CO overtone laser characteristics, are very sensitive to the choice of the model. The most complete model predicts slower evolution of the vibrational distribution, in qualitative agreement with experiments

  2. Financial and fiscal crises, prices and EUR/USD rate of exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Slawomir I. Bukowski

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: How did the standard and non-standard ECB policy measures influence the price level and the EUR/USD rate of exchange in the period 2008 -2013? Design/methodology/approach: We formulated the following hypothesis: Depreciation of the Euro versus American dollar exchange rate occurred in the period of financial and fiscal crisis (2008-2014. The main reasons for that included: fiscal crisis in the euro area, implementation of standard and non–standard (quantitative easing ECB monetary policy measures and growth of money supply in the euro area. In that period, the economically and statistically significant impacts of money supply aggregate M2 and differences between interest rates and rates of inflation in the euro area and USA on changes in EUR/USD rate of exchange were noted. For verification of our hypothesis we used econometric modeling - model of regression estimated using the GARCH (0.1, using the monthly data for the period 1999:01-2013:12. Results of our research confirmed the hypothesis formulated by us. Findings: Our study confirmed the formulated hypothesis; the EBC monetary policy, both standard and non-standard, in the years 2008-2014 had a significant effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate, contributing largely to the depreciation of the euro in the same period. Research limitations/implications: The same method of research could be applied to other cases of currency area and central bank monetary policy. Originality/value: The results support the existence of statistically and economically significant impact of central bank policy on the rate of exchange, by the expansion of money supply, changes of differences between interest rates and rates of inflation inside and outside the currency rate area. Those results confirm conclusion formulated based on the theory of interest rate parity and assets theory of currency rates.

  3. Exchange rate volatility and its effect on stock market volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Kennedy

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates empirically the effect of volatility of the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the euro on U.S. stock market volatility while controlling for a number of drivers of stock return volatility. Using a GARCH(1, 1 model and using weekly data covering the period from the week of January 1, 1999 through the week of January 25, 2010, it is found that the 9/11 terrorist attack, bear markets, fluctuations in jobless claims, and negative equity market returns increase financial volatility. On the other hand, no conclusive results are found regarding the effect of fluctuations in M2, or incorrect expectations of changes in the federal funds target rate. Finally, it is found that when major drivers of financial volatility are controlled for, increased exchange rate volatility exerts a positive and statistically significant effect on the volatility of stock returns. Monetary policymakers need to take this effect into account when formulating exchange rate actions within the prevailing managed float.

  4. HEDGER BEHAVIOUR AND ITS IMPACT ON ORDER FLOW AND EXCHANGE RATE ON FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Skoupil Lubomír

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper introduces the author’s original model which describes the main behavioural traits of the foreign exchange hedger who is trying to minimise her FX market risk exposure and secure foreign currency liquidity, in order to be able to settle her liabilities in a  timely manner. This behaviour is then analysed in the context of several exogenous shocks to prices and exchange rates and implications of how order flow and exchange rates react to this behaviour are drawn based on the theoretical framework. In Chapter 2, the conclusions on expected patterns in exchange rate evolution reached in the theoretical part are tested using the fuzzy clustering technique. The hypotheses reached in the theoretical section were partially supported by the empirical analysis: some of the expected patterns were revealed by the data during shock periods of prices of Brent Oil, Dow Jones Industrial Index, Standard and Poor’s 500 and four currency pairs (EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, EURCZK

  5. The impact of monetary policy and exchange rate regime on real GDP and prices in the Republic of Macedonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zeqiri Izet

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the relative costs and benefits associated with introducing a more active monetary and a different exchange rate regime in the Republic of Macedonia. In this finding, the econometrics result show that introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate targeting in order to promote rapid economic growth could easy disturb macroeconomic stability (after having achieved it at a substantial cost without any significant economic benefits. Therefore, introducing a more active monetary policy and a different strategy of the exchange rate regime is likely to incur more costs than benefits, since changes of the monetary policy and exchange rate regime type do not show a persistent effect on real GDP, while changes of money stock and exchange rate regime do show a strong and persistent effect on prices level.

  6. Effect of massing on larval growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Aidan P; Wallman, James F

    2014-08-01

    Estimation of minimum postmortem interval commonly relies on predicting the age of blowfly larvae based on their size and an estimate of the temperatures to which they have been exposed throughout their development. The majority of larval growth rate data have been developed using small larval masses in order to avoid excess heat generation. The current study collected growth rate data for larvae at different mass volumes, and assessed the temperature production of these masses, for two forensically important blow fly species, Chrysomya rufifacies and Calliphora vicina. The growth rate of larvae in a small mass, exposed to the higher temperatures equivalent to those experienced by large masses, was also assessed to determine if observed differences were due to the known temperature effects of maggot masses. The results showed that temperature production increased with increasing mass volume, with temperature increases of 11 °C observed in the large Ch. rufifacies masses and increases of 5 °C in the large C. vicina masses. Similarly, the growth rate of the larvae was affected by mass size. The larvae from small masses grown at the higher temperatures experienced by large masses displayed an initial delay in growth, but then grew at a similar rate to those larvae at a constant 23 °C. Since these larvae from masses of equivalent sizes displayed similar patterns of growth rate, despite differing temperatures, and these growth rates differed from larger masses exposed to the same temperatures, it can be concluded that larval growth rate within a mass may be affected by additional factors other than temperature. Overall, this study highlights the importance of understanding the role of massing in larval development and provides initial developmental data for mass sizes of two forensically important blowfly species commonly encountered in Australian forensic casework. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: "Speculation" in Non-Financial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    "Speculation" in non-financial companies in relation to exchange rate exposure management constitutes one of the contributing factors behind corporate (or more widespread) crises. Deviations from benchmark positions constitute speculation. An empirical study of Danish non-financial companies finds...... that the larger the company (ability) and the larger its relative sale on foreign markets (relevance), the more likely the company will be to benchmark its exchange rate exposures. However, at the same time the very same factors (size and foreign sale) lead to more extensive speculation. Financial solvency (value......) does not seem to have a significant effect on the extent of benchmarking / speculation. Additional economic sector effects are only present in the case of speculation where companies in Materials tend to speculate more than other companies....

  8. VaR: Exchange Rate Risk and Jump Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fen-Ying Chen

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Incorporating the Poisson jumps and exchange rate risk, this paper provides an analytical VaR to manage market risk of international portfolios over the subprime mortgage crisis. There are some properties in the model. First, different from past studies in portfolios valued only in one currency, this model considers portfolios not only with jumps but also with exchange rate risk, that is vital for investors in highly integrated global financial markets. Second, in general, the analytical VaR solution is more accurate than historical simulations in terms of backtesting and Christoffersen's independence test (1998 for small portfolios and large portfolios. In other words, the proposed model is reliable not only for a portfolio on specific stocks but also for a large portfolio. Third, the model can be regarded as the extension of that of Kupiec (1999 and Chen and Liao (2009.

  9. Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade among the Asia Pacific Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saang Joon Baak

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on exports among 14 Asia Pacific countries, where various measures to raise the intra-region trade are being implemented. Specifically, this paper estimates a gravity model, in which the dependent variable is the product of the exports of two trading countries. In addition, it also estimates a unilateral exports model, in which the dependent variable is not the product of the exports of two trading countries but the exports from one country to another. By doing this, the depreciation rate of the exporting country's currency value can be included as one of the explanatory variables affecting the volume of exports. As the explanatory variables of the export volume, the gravity model adopts the product of the GDPs of two trading counties, their bilateral exchange rate volatility, their distance, a time trend and dummies for the share of the border line, the use of the same language, and the APEC membership. In the case of the unilateral exports model, the product of the GDPs is replaced by the GDP of the importing country, and the depreciation rate of the exporting country's currency value is dded. In addition, considering that the export volume will also depend on various onditions of the exporting country, dummies for exporting countries are also included as an explanatory variable. The empirical tests, using annual data for the period from 1980 to 2002, detect a significant negative impact of exchange rate volatility on the volume of exports. In addition, various tests using the data for sub-sample periods indicate that the negative impact had been weakened since 1989, when APEC had launched, and surged again from 1997, when the Asian financial crisis broke out. This finding implies that the impact of exchange rate volatility is time-dependent and that it is significantlynegative at least in the present time. This phenomenon is noticed regardless which estimation

  10. Exchange Rate Volatility, Its Determinants and Effects on the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Chimaobi V. Okolo; Onyinye S. Ugwuanyi; Kenneth A. Okpala

    2017-01-01

    This study evaluated the effect of exchange rate volatility on the manufacturing sector of Nigeria. The flow and stock market theories of exchange rate determination was adopted considering macroeconomic determinants such as balance of trade, trade openness, and net international investment. Furthermore, the influence of changes in parallel exchange rate, official exchange rate and real effective exchange rate was modeled on the manufacturing sector output. Vector autoregression techniques an...

  11. Exchange rate policy and external debt in emerging economies: an empirical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Cebir, Bilgen

    2012-01-01

    In this thesis, we empirically analyze the e ects of exchange rate policy on external debt accumulation in emerging market economies with a sample of 15 countries over the period 1998-2010. The exchange rate policy is captured by the de facto exchange rate classi cation of Ilzetzki, Reinhart, and Rogo (2008). This classification is based on the actual exchange rate behavior rather than the officially declared regimes. Therefore, it is expected to better reflect the exchange rate policies act...

  12. Ultraslow growth rates of giant gypsum crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Driessche, A. E. S.; García-Ruíz, J. M.; Tsukamoto, K.; Patiño-Lopez, L. D.; Satoh, H.

    2011-01-01

    Mineralogical processes taking place close to equilibrium, or with very slow kinetics, are difficult to quantify precisely. The determination of ultraslow dissolution/precipitation rates would reveal characteristic timing associated with these processes that are important at geological scale. We have designed an advanced high-resolution white-beam phase-shift interferometry microscope to measure growth rates of crystals at very low supersaturation values. To test this technique, we have selected the giant gypsum crystals of Naica ore mines in Chihuahua, Mexico, a challenging subject in mineral formation. They are thought to form by a self-feeding mechanism driven by solution-mediated anhydrite-gypsum phase transition, and therefore they must be the result of an extremely slow crystallization process close to equilibrium. To calculate the formation time of these crystals we have measured the growth rates of the {010} face of gypsum growing from current Naica waters at different temperatures. The slowest measurable growth rate was found at 55 °C, 1.4 ± 0.2 × 10-5 nm/s, the slowest directly measured normal growth rate for any crystal growth process. At higher temperatures, growth rates increase exponentially because of decreasing gypsum solubility and higher kinetic coefficient. At 50 °C neither growth nor dissolution was observed indicating that growth of giant crystals of gypsum occurred at Naica between 58 °C (gypsum/anhydrite transition temperature) and the current temperature of Naica waters, confirming formation temperatures determined from fluid inclusion studies. Our results demonstrate the usefulness of applying advanced optical techniques in laboratory experiments to gain a better understanding of crystal growth processes occurring at a geological timescale. PMID:21911400

  13. Oxygen-isotope exchange rates for three isostructural polyoxometalate ions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villa, Eric M; Ohlin, C André; Casey, William H

    2010-04-14

    We compare oxygen-isotope exchange rates for all structural oxygens in three polyoxoniobate ions that differ by systematic metal substitutions of Ti(IV) --> Nb(V). The [H(x)Nb(10)O(28)]((6-x)-), [H(x)TiNb(9)O(28)]((7-x)-), and [H(x)Ti(2)Nb(8)O(28)]((8-x)-) ions are all isostructural yet have different Brønsted properties. Rates for sites within a particular molecule in the series differ by at least approximately 10(4), but the relative reactivities of the oxygen sites rank in nearly the same relative order for all ions in the series. Within a single ion, most structural oxygens exhibit rates of isotopic exchange that vary similarly with pH, indicating that each structure responds as a whole to changes in pH. Across the series of molecules, however, the pH dependencies for isotope exchanges and dissociation are distinctly different, reflecting different contributions from proton- or base-enhanced pathways. The proton-enhanced pathway for isotope exchange dominates at most pH conditions for the [H(x)Ti(2)Nb(8)O(28)]((8-x)-) ion, but the base-enhanced pathways are increasingly important for the [H(x)TiNb(9)O(28)]((7-x)-) and [H(x)Nb(10)O(28)]((6-x)-) structures at higher pH. The local effect of Ti(IV) substitution could be assessed by comparing rates for structurally similar oxygens on each side of the [H(x)TiNb(9)O(28)]((7-x)-) ion and is surprisingly small. Interestingly, these nanometer-size structures seem to manifest the same general averaged amphoteric chemistry that is familiar for other reactions affecting oxides in water, including interface dissolution by proton- and hydroxyl-enhanced pathways.

  14. Essays on Currency Competition, Institutional Restrictions and Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Bhattacharya, Arghya

    2017-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three essays on currency competition, institutional restrictions and exchange rates. When faced with currency competition, a country's government has two tools at its disposal: reduce the level of inflation or place institutional barriers to the use of foreign currency. In the first chapter, I propose a two-country, two-currency New Monetarist model to study currency competition. I model institutional barriers as a `tax' on the real value of foreign currency hol...

  15. EQUILIBRIUM REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN BRAZIL ESTIMATION AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

    OpenAIRE

    Thierry Buchs

    2005-01-01

    This paper examines the determinants of the real effective exchange rate (REER) in Brazil, from 1994 to 2003. Building on a standard theoretical model and based on the Johansen cointegration estimation, the main finding is that much of the long-run behavior of the REER can be explained by relative productivity differentials, real commodity prices, government expenditures on tradables and non-tradables, trade openness and real interest differentials. On the basis of these fundamentals, the lev...

  16. Crop growth rate differs in warm season C4-grasses grown in pure ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    SAM

    2014-07-23

    Jul 23, 2014 ... Analysis of variance for crop growth rate of summer cereals grown alone in pure and mixed stands under low and high water ... Crop growth rate means and significance of differences for the pre-planned comparisons at first cut (30 DAE). ...... assessment by fiber optic point quadrats and gas exchange.

  17. Testing of empirical grounds for theoretical models of real exchange rate: research of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Predrag Petrović

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The focus of this research holds the most important determinants of real exchange rate covered by various theoretical models. The empirical testing was carried out on the real exchange rate between RSD and Euro for the period from January 2007 to December 2010, which was significantly imposed by availability of consistent time series. The research pertains to five basic model specifications and is based on the testing of time series cointegration by applying Johansen and Engle-Granger’s test. The obtained results have shown that the observed models do not have grounds in empirical data. Time series figuring in models are not cointegrated, and besides that, the estimated cointegration coefficients have signs opposite to the expected ones in large number of cases. In our opinion, the reasons for such findings can be found in the fact that used time series are quite short, i.e. they pertain to the period of only four years, as well as that prices of some significant services are still under the administrative control. Still, despite the aforementioned lacks, we think that our findings can be accepted as preliminary knowledge about the ability of the observed models to explain the dynamics of real exchange rate between RSD and Euro.

  18. INTEREST-RATE DIFFERENTIALS AND EXCHANGE-RATE POLICIES IN AUSTRIA, THE NETHERLANDS, AND BELGIUM

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KNOT, K; DEHAAN, J

    In this paper, the small, but persistent interest rate differentials via-a-vis Germany which have existed in Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium are analysed. These interest differentials may be thought of to consist of three parts: expected exchange rate movements within the band, expected

  19. Moment generating function approach to pricing interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dijkstra, T.K.; Yao, Y.

    2002-01-01

    This paper uses moment generating functions to provide a general framework to model international term structures and to price interest rate and foreign exchange rate claims. When moment generating functions of state variables have a closed-form formula, closed-form formulas for bond prices are

  20. Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stavárek Daniel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the evolution of effective exchange rates in nine Central and Eastern European countries in terms of development trends, volatility and cyclicality. Consequently, it provides direct empirical evidence on the nature of the relationship between effective exchange rates and selected macroeconomic fundamentals, addressing a key precondition of numerous exchange rate determination models and theories that attempt to explain the role of exchange rates in the economy. The results suggest that flexible exchange rate arrangements are reflected in both nominal and real effective exchange rates having higher volatility and variability. Furthermore, the results provide mixed evidence in terms of intensity, direction and cyclicality, but show a weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for money supply. Consequently, using fundamentals for the determination of exchange rates and using the exchange rate to explain economic development may be of limited use for the countries analyzed.

  1. A novel pulse isotopic exchange technique for rapid determination of the oxygen surface exchange rate of oxide ion conductors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouwmeester, Henricus J.M.; Song, Chunlin; Song, C.; Zhu, J.J.; van Sint Annaland, M.; Yi, Jianxin; Boukamp, Bernard A.

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate the use of a novel pulse 18O–16O isotopic exchange technique for the rapid determination of the oxygen surface exchange rate of oxide ion conductors while simultaneously providing insight into the mechanism of the oxygen exchange reaction, which contributes to the efficient

  2. EVIDENCE ON EMPLOYMENT RATE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelia VĂCEANU

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores a causal relationship between employment rate and economic growth for European Union countries, in general, and produces a structural assessment of employment on the background of labour market dynamics. Economic growth is the key in economic theory and the main source of well-being and quality of life. Since the 2008 financial crisis, most European countries have experienced job shortage and unemployment problem, but today's European economic outlook is strengthening on the bases of a GDP growing momentum. Empirical data shows, regardless the GDP's moderate positive trend, the employment rate did not increase enough. Given this, the present analysis address the question: to what extent the employment rate is affected by economic growth?

  3. MONETARY TRANSMISSION CHANNELS IN FLEXIBLE MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES: THE CASE OF SELECTED TRANSITION ECONOMIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kosta JOSIFIDIS

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores selected monetary transmission channels in the case of transition economies. Namely, an exchange rate channel, an interest rate channel, direct and indirect influence to an exchange rate, are focused. Specific (former transition economies are differentiated according the combination of implemented monetary and exchange rate regimes: exchange rate as a nominal anchor and rigid exchange rate regimes, exchange rate as a nominal anchor and intermediate exchange rate regimes, and implicit/explicit inflation targeting monetary regime and floating (managed/free exchange rate regime. The monetary transmission is tracked during different phases in a transition process towards the EU and compared between different nominal anchors and exchange rate regimes. In order to track the influence of a monetary policy instruments (impulses to different goals of a monetary policy (responses during the period from 6-24 months, we use VAR and VEC models. Monthly frequency of following time series are used in the models: nominal exchange rates, consumer price indexes, foreign exchange reserves, and reference interest rates. The aim of the paper is to point to the distinction between de jure and de facto exchange rate regimes, and to the adequacy of used combination of monetary and exchange rate regimes having in mind revealed features of investigated monetary transmission channels.

  4. Unusual growth rate during cystic echinococcosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valour, Florent; Khenifer, Safia; Della-Schiava, Nellie; Cotte, Eddy; Guibert, Benoit; Wallon, Martine; Durupt, Stéphane; Durieu, Isabelle

    2014-04-01

    Cystic echinococcosis is a world wild zoonosis caused by Echinococcus granulosus, leading to hepatic and lung cysts with a usually slight growth rate. We report the case of an 82year-old Algerian woman with hepatic and lung cystic echinococcosis with a 10-fold size increase in 6months. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  5. DETERMINATION OF THE SPECIFIC GROWTH RATE ON ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Sewage generation is one of the dense problems Nigerians encounter on daily bases, mostly at the urbanized area where factories and industries are located. This paper is aimed at determining the specific growth rate “K” of biological activities on cassava wastewater during degradation using Michaelis-Menten Equation.

  6. ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO DIFFERENCE EQUATIONS MODELING OF EXCHANGE RATES CHANGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josip Arnerić

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Time series models that are commonly used in econometric modeling are autoregressive stochastic linear models (AR and models of moving averages (MA. Mentioned models by their structure are actually stochastic difference equations. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to estimate difference equations containing stochastic (random component. Estimated models of time series will be used to forecast observed data in the future. Namely, solutions of difference equations are closely related to conditions of stationary time series models. Based on the fact that volatility is time varying in high frequency data and that periods of high volatility tend to cluster, the most successful and popular models in modeling time varying volatility are GARCH type models and their variants. However, GARCH models will not be analyzed because the purpose of this research is to predict the value of the exchange rate in the levels within conditional mean equation and to determine whether the observed variable has a stable or explosive time path. Based on the estimated difference equation it will be examined whether Croatia is implementing a stable policy of exchange rates.

  7. TRINEXAPAC-ETHYL AFFECTS GROWTH AND GAS EXCHANGE OF UPLAND RICE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    RITA DE CASSIA FÉLIX ALVAREZ

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A major problem affecting some upland rice cultivars is the increase in plant size when subjected to high doses of nitrogen fertilizer, leading to high levels of lodging. A method to reduce the height of upland rice, and therefore lodging, would be to use plant growth regulators. However, little information exists on the effect of these regulators on plant physiological processes. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate the influence of trinexapac-ethyl application in upland rice via analysis of growth and gas exchange. The experiment was carried out under greenhouse conditions using the BRS Primavera cultivar. A completely randomized design with eight replications was used. Treatments were carried out with and without the application of the plant growth regulator, and plants were subject to two-stage assessments in which physiological and gas-exchange indices were measured. The use of trinexapac-ethyl improved the growth of rice plants from the flowering to the physiological maturity stage, resulting in higher values of leaf area ratio, specific leaf area, and leaf matter ratio in treated plants. At the same time, it provided smaller reduction in net CO2 assimilation at the physiological maturity stage. Thus, net/apparent assimilation rate did not change after the application of growth regulator, but relative growth rate decreased in these treated plants. These results indicate the occurrence of self-shading in rice plants induced by what might be a supra-optimum trinexapac-ethyl concentration.

  8. Particle loading rates for HVAC filters, heat exchangers, and ducts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waring, M S; Siegel, J A

    2008-06-01

    The rate at which airborne particulate matter deposits onto heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) components is important from both indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy perspectives. This modeling study predicts size-resolved particle mass loading rates for residential and commercial filters, heat exchangers (i.e. coils), and supply and return ducts. A parametric analysis evaluated the impact of different outdoor particle distributions, indoor emission sources, HVAC airflows, filtration efficiencies, coils, and duct system complexities. The median predicted residential and commercial loading rates were 2.97 and 130 g/m(2) month for the filter loading rates, 0.756 and 4.35 g/m(2) month for the coil loading rates, 0.0051 and 1.00 g/month for the supply duct loading rates, and 0.262 g/month for the commercial return duct loading rates. Loading rates are more dependent on outdoor particle distributions, indoor sources, HVAC operation strategy, and filtration than other considered parameters. The results presented herein, once validated, can be used to estimate filter changing and coil cleaning schedules, energy implications of filter and coil loading, and IAQ impacts associated with deposited particles. The results in this paper suggest important factors that lead to particle deposition on HVAC components in residential and commercial buildings. This knowledge informs the development and comparison of control strategies to limit particle deposition. The predicted mass loading rates allow for the assessment of pressure drop and indoor air quality consequences that result from particle mass loading onto HVAC system components.

  9. The Determinants of won/dollar Exchange Rate Volatility and Policy Recommendations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chae-Shick Chung

    1998-09-01

    Full Text Available This thesis analyzed the feature and different points of the changing of the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar, then discussed the direction of the completion of Korea exchange rate system. The prediction result of the model GARCH which vividly shows the phenomenon of the auto-regression of the exchange rate has indicated the level of the exchange rate yesterday could explain the circumstance of the change of exchange rate today. Meanwhile, the policy of the US exchange rate will affect the exchange rate of Korea won against US dollar and the volatility of foreign exchange rate. In the present situation of Korean economy in which the liberalization of capital and the independence of the central bank has been established, the choosing range of the exchange system could only be completely changeable exchange rate system or exchange rate system of multilateral arrangement like Europe. However, in terms of the condition of the world economy, the introduction of the latter system is too early. There is an idea that under the changeable exchange rate system which is the only choice, it is the right time to activate the main body of private economy, the financial derivatives market in which the exchange risk could be trade-off. Government should work on and create a policy that would be able to satisfy the expectations of the market participants.

  10. The Variance Composition of Firm Growth Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luiz Artur Ledur Brito

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Firms exhibit a wide variability in growth rates. This can be seen as another manifestation of the fact that firms are different from one another in several respects. This study investigated this variability using the variance components technique previously used to decompose the variance of financial performance. The main source of variation in growth rates, responsible for more than 40% of total variance, corresponds to individual, idiosyncratic firm aspects and not to industry, country, or macroeconomic conditions prevailing in specific years. Firm growth, similar to financial performance, is mostly unique to specific firms and not an industry or country related phenomenon. This finding also justifies using growth as an alternative outcome of superior firm resources and as a complementary dimension of competitive advantage. This also links this research with the resource-based view of strategy. Country was the second source of variation with around 10% of total variance. The analysis was done using the Compustat Global database with 80,320 observations, comprising 13,221 companies in 47 countries, covering the years of 1994 to 2002. It also compared the variance structure of growth to the variance structure of financial performance in the same sample.

  11. Effects of health information exchange adoption on ambulatory testing rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Stephen E; Radcliff, Tiffany A; Leblanc, William G; Dickinson, L Miriam; Libby, Anne M; Nease, Donald E

    2013-01-01

    To determine the effects of the adoption of ambulatory electronic health information exchange (HIE) on rates of laboratory and radiology testing and allowable charges. Claims data from the dominant health plan in Mesa County, Colorado, from 1 April 2005 to 31 December 2010 were matched to HIE adoption data on the provider level. Using mixed effects regression models with the quarter as the unit of analysis, the effect of HIE adoption on testing rates and associated charges was assessed. Claims submitted by 306 providers in 69 practices for 34 818 patients were analyzed. The rate of testing per provider was expressed as tests per 1000 patients per quarter. For primary care providers, the rate of laboratory testing increased over the time span (baseline 1041 tests/1000 patients/quarter, increasing by 13.9 each quarter) and shifted downward with HIE adoption (downward shift of 83, prates or imputed charges in either provider group. Ambulatory HIE adoption is unlikely to produce significant direct savings through reductions in rates of testing. The economic benefits of HIE may reside instead in other downstream outcomes of better informed, higher quality care.

  12. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    OpenAIRE

    van der Windt, P.C.; Schaling, E.; Huizinga, H.P.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate commercial and financial exchange rates, drives a wedge between the domestic and foreign returns on comparable assets. As a borrower, the government itself is a direct beneficiary. Secondly, based ...

  13. The Economic Exchange Rate Exposure: Evidence for a Small Open Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Rashid, Abdul

    2009-01-01

    This study examines the economic exchange rate exposure for 22 industries in Pakistan. The key findings of the study are as follows. Firstly, it shows that industry-level share values are statistically significantly influenced by changes in the PKR/US-dollar exchange rate in general. Secondly it reports a statistically significant lagged response of stock values to exchange rate change. Finally, the highly capital intensive industries are, however, more exposed to changes in exchange rate as ...

  14. A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: Chartbook, 1946-2001

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2002-01-01

    This is the chartbook of individual country exchange rate histories and their experience with parallel markets, 1946-2001 that accompanies "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation." We develop a novel system of reclassifying historical exchange rate regimes. One key difference between our study and previous classifications is that we employ monthly data on market-determined parallel exchange rates going back to 1946 for 153 countries. Our approach differs from the...

  15. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    OpenAIRE

    2014-01-01

    Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD). Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of...

  16. Long-run and Short-run Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate in Zambia

    OpenAIRE

    Mkenda, Beatrice Kalinda

    2001-01-01

    The paper analyses the main determinants of the real exchange rate in Zambia. It first gives a brief review of the Zambian economy and a review on real exchange rate studies. Then an illustrative model is presented. The study employs cointegration analysis in estimating the long-run determinants of the real exchange rates for imports and exports, and of the internal real exchange rate. The finding is that terms of trade, government consumption, and investment share all influence the real exch...

  17. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Trifonova

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of public debt?

  18. The exchange rate arrangements-government finance relationship and the impact on debt management

    OpenAIRE

    Silvia Trifonova; Milena Kovachevich

    2016-01-01

    The choice of exchange rate regime can have a significant impact on the development of the national economy, which affects the main economic indicators. Traditionally, researchers consider the effects of certain types of exchange rate regimes on economic indicators such as gross domestic product, inflation, current account, real exchange rate and investments, but is it possible that the exchange rate regime can also reflect the country's government finance and thus influence the management of...

  19. Time-Varying Risk, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates in General Equilibrium

    OpenAIRE

    Fernando Alvarez; Andrew Atkeson; Patrick J. Kehoe

    2009-01-01

    Under mild assumptions, the data indicate that fluctuations in nominal interest rate differentials across currencies are primarily fluctuations in time-varying risk. This finding is an immediate implication of the fact that exchange rates are roughly random walks. If most fluctuations in interest differentials are thought to be driven by monetary policy, then the data call for a theory which explains how changes in monetary policy change risk. Here, we propose such a theory based on a general...

  20. An Econometric Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Exchange rate policy plays an important role in national economic development and management. Thus, the debate on exchange rate management has preoccupied economists and public sector managers for a very long time. The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of exchange rate volatility on tradable goods ...

  1. The Effect of Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates : How to Solve the Puzzles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kumah, F.Y.

    1996-01-01

    Recent empirical research on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate fluctuations have encountered the exchange rate puzzle and th e forward discount bias puzzle.The exchange rate puzzle is the tendency of the domestic currency (of non-US G-7 countries) to depreciate against the US

  2. Measuring the Effect of Exchange Rate Movements on Stock Market Returns Volatility: GARCH Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdelkadir BESSEBA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to investigate the dynamic links between exchange rate fluctuations and stock market return volatility. For this purpose, we have employed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH model. Stock market returns sensitivities are found to be stronger for exchange rates, implying that exchange rate change plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the stock market returns.

  3. Capital Controls and Foreign Investor Subsidies Implicit in South Africa's Dual Exchange Rate System

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Windt, P.C.; Schaling, E.; Huizinga, H.P.

    2007-01-01

    Both in theory and practice, capital controls and dual exchange rate systems can be part of a country's optimal tax policy. We first show how a dual exchange rate system can be interpreted as a tax (or subsidy) on international capital income. We show that a dual exchange rate system, with separate

  4. A Firm-Specific Analysis of the Exchange-Rate Exposure of Dutch Firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. de Jong (Abe); J. Ligterink; V. Macrae

    2002-01-01

    textabstractWe examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50% of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  5. A firm-specific exposure analyis of the exchange-rate exposure of Dutch firms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Jong, A.; Ligterink, J.; Macrae, V.

    2006-01-01

    We examine the relationship between exchange-rate changes and stock returns for a sample of Dutch firms over 1994-1998. We find that over 50 per cent of the firms are significantly exposed to exchange-rate risk. Furthermore, all firms with significant exchange-rate exposure benefit from a

  6. A Critical Appraisal of Exchange Rate Policies and the Value of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper critically appraised exchange rate policies and its influence on the value of the domestic currency (i.e. Naira) in Nigeria for the period 1970 through 2002 within the framework of tabular approach. Exchange rate theories and the exchange rate policies prior to SAP, during SAP and after SAP were reviewed.

  7. Impacts of Korea's Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwon Sik Kim

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effects of two types of uncertainty related to the real effective exchange rate (REER in Korea for export trends. To decompose uncertainties into two types of component, I propose an advanced generalized Markov switching model, as developed by Hamilton (1989 and then expanded by Kim and Kim (1996. The proposed model is useful in uncovering two sources of uncertainty: the permanent component of REER and the purely transitory component. I think that the two types of uncertainties have a different effect on export trends in Korea. The transitory component of REER has no effect on the export trend at 5-percent significance, but the permanent component has an effect at this level. In addition, the degree of uncertainty, consisting of low, medium and high uncertainty in the permanent component, and low, medium and high uncertainty in transitory component of REER, also has different effects on export trends in Korea. Only high uncertainty in permanent components effects export trends. The results show that when the policy authority intends to prevent the shrinkage of exports due to the deepening of uncertainties in the foreign exchange market, the economic impacts of its intervention could appear differently according to the characteristics and degree of the uncertainties. Therefore, they imply that its economic measures, which could not grasp the sources of uncertainties properly, may even bring economic costs.

  8. Return Rates for Needle Exchange Programs: A Common Criticism Answered

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ksobiech Kate

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract This study searched the available needle exchange program (NEP literature for return rate data. A total of 26 articles were found. The overall worldwide return rate was 90%, although this ranged from a low of 15% to a high of 112%. U.S. NEP return rates were gathered from only eight studies, indicating a clear need for more data, although U.S. return rates were comparable to those from NEPs outside of the U.S. One underlying assumption made by opponents of NEPs is that IDUs will not return needles to the distribution site, thereby potentially increasing the risk of health problems to the surrounding community from exposure to contaminated needles. This study's results suggest that NEPs are relatively successful in taking in used needles, although it is generally unclear where the needles were originally acquired, and if IDUs return their own needles, or are returning needles for a social network. Ways for AIDS Service Organizations to capitalize on these brief encounters with IDUs, as well as public policy implications of the findings, are discussed.

  9. Population growth rates in perfect contraceptive populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J R; Bauman, K E; Chase, C L

    1973-07-01

    Abstract Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept 'perfect contraceptive population',(1) - a population in which no unwanted births occur - to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.

  10. Inhomogeneous scaling behaviors in Malaysian foreign currency exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muniandy, S. V.; Lim, S. C.; Murugan, R.

    2001-12-01

    In this paper, we investigate the fractal scaling behaviors of foreign currency exchange rates with respect to Malaysian currency, Ringgit Malaysia. These time series are examined piecewise before and after the currency control imposed in 1st September 1998 using the monofractal model based on fractional Brownian motion. The global Hurst exponents are determined using the R/ S analysis, the detrended fluctuation analysis and the method of second moment using the correlation coefficients. The limitation of these monofractal analyses is discussed. The usual multifractal analysis reveals that there exists a wide range of Hurst exponents in each of the time series. A new method of modelling the multifractal time series based on multifractional Brownian motion with time-varying Hurst exponents is studied.

  11. On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates

    OpenAIRE

    Reitz, Stefan; Ruelke, Jan C.; Taylor, Mark P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that mean reversion increases with the degree of exchange rate misalignment. Second, a STR-GARCH model suggests that RBA interventions account for this result by strengthening foreign exchange traders' confid...

  12. Australian Universities' Strategic Goals of Student Exchange and Participation Rates in Outbound Exchange Programmes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daly, Amanda; Barker, Michelle

    2010-01-01

    International student exchange programmes are acknowledged as one aspect of a broader suite of internationalisation strategies aimed at enhancing students' intercultural understanding and competence. The decision to participate in an exchange programme is dependent on both individual and contextual factors such as student exchange policies and…

  13. TRADE, EXCHANGE RATE AND AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN MALAYSIA

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Jenkins; Andrew Lai

    1989-01-01

    Malaysia, a country of approximately 16 million people which gained independence in 1957, relied heavily on trade to achieve substantial growth in GNP during the 1960s (6.7 percent per year) and 1970s (10.5 percent per year). In the period 1980-83, however, the rate slipped to 3.1 percent per year. Malaysia’s traditional exports are natural rubber and palm oil, but in the 1970s the country also became an important exporter of crude oil. During the study period (1960-83) government interventio...

  14. Solvent Exchange Rates of Side-chain Amide Protons in Proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopal, Ponni; Jones, Bryan E.; Klevit, Rachel E.

    1998-01-01

    Solvent exchange rates and temperature coefficients for Asn/Gln side-chain amide protons have been measured in Escherichia coli HPr. The protons of the eight side-chain amide groups (two Asn and six Gln) exhibit varying exchange rates which are slower than some of the fast exchanging backbone amide protons. Differences in exchange rates of the E and Z protons of the same side-chain amide group are obtained by measuring exchange rates at pH values > 8. An NOE between a side-chain amide proton and a bound water molecule was also observed

  15. Effects of Monetary Shocks on Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Chandan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the effect of monetary policy shocks on exchange rate in a Multiple Indicator Approach (MIA framework. This study has employed a monetary policy index of key monetary policy instruments in India (Bank rate, Cash Reserve Ratio, Repo and Reverse Repo rates. The study finds the empirical evidence for puzzling behavior of price level and exchange rate. Both price and exchange rate increase initially in response to a contractionary policy shock. Policy shocks affect output, inflation and exchange rate to an appreciable extent over a forecasting horizon of one year.

  16. THE DETERMINATION OF THE COSTA RICA COLON/USD EXCHANGE RATE

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to compare four major exchange rate models for the Costa Rica Colon. We examine exchange rate data for the Costa Rica/U.S. dollar relationship from 1981-2007 and find that monetary models have a higher explanatory ability whereas the Mundell-Fleming model performs better in forecasting exchange rates than other models. The coefficient of the interest rate differential in the uncovered interest parity model has a wrong sign.

  17. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure. Published in the Journal of

  18. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    with eight-channels ranging from 0.1-0.2 to$GRT@2.0$mu@m diameter. The air exchange rates during the experiments were either high (working hours) or low (non-working hours) and ranged from 1.6 to$GRT@12h $+-1$/, with intermediate exchange rates. Given the emission rates of ozone and d-limonene used....... There was evidence for coagulation among particles in the smallest size-range at low air exchange rates (high particle concentrations) but no evidence of coagulation was apparent at higher air exchange rates (lower particle concentrations). At higher air exchange rates the particle count or size distributions were......Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution...

  19. Choice of optimal exchange rate system For the Republic of Croatia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dražen Koški

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of research whose results are presented in this article was to choose the optimal system of exchange rate for the Republic of Croatia, of course before its accession to EU. The analyzed exchange rate systems here range from free-floating exchange rate to system without domestic currency in circulation. Naturally, the classification of International Monetary Fond is included in it. After that, the comparison of basic economic advantages and disadvantages of the fixed exchange rate in relation to floating exchange rate were carried out. Although the question is about the extreme systems, disregarding the system without domestic currency in circulation, their comparison makes possible completely satisfactory basis for the right conclusions on the choice of optimal exchange rate system for the Republic of Croatia. Considering its economic particularities, the system of managed-floating exchange rate without proclaimed exchange direction in advance is certainly optimal for the Republic of Croatia. Namely, within the framework of this system the limited floating exchange rates decrease the foreign exchange risk allowing to monetary authorities, at least partly, the independent monetary policy

  20. Granger causality between stock prices and currency exchange rates in Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosapattarapim, Chaiwat

    2017-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to study the causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in Thailand using the Granger causality tests based on cointegration. The daily closing prices and exchange rates data considered in this paper cover from December 7, 2012 to June 22, 2016. The Johansen cointegration test finds that there is a long-run relationship between the stock prices and exchange rates. Using the Granger test for investigating the directional causality of stock prices and exchange rates in Thailand, the results show that there is an evidence of unidirectional long-run causality running from stock prices to exchange rate but no evidence of the movement from exchange rates to stock prices.

  1. The macroeconomic deviation effects of the actual exchange rate from the equilibrium level of Ukraine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viktor Shevchuk

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available By means of VAR and 2SLS assessments in the article researches the influence of the RER deviations from the equilibrium signification received through the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The author proved that understated RER worsens the GDP dynamics and accelerates the inflation simultaneously restricting the export and import demand. The results obtained testify to the benefit of hryvnia exchange rate growth as a means of dynamic acceleration of the economic growth in the low-inflation environment. It’s appropriate to neutralize possible balance deterioration of the trade balance is with the use of nonprice factors like reduction of the budget deficit and limitation of the money stock offers.

  2. On the Distribution of Exchange Rate Regime Treatment Effects on International Trade

    OpenAIRE

    Dorn, Sabrina; Egger, Peter

    2011-01-01

    This paper provides evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects on trade from switching among three types of de-facto exchange rate regimes: freely floating, currency bands, and pegs or currency unions. A cottage literature at the interface of macroeconomics and international economics focuses on the consequences of exchange rate regimes for economic outcome such as trade. The majority of contributions points to trade-stimulating average effects of tighter exchange rate tying in general and o...

  3. ANALYSIS OF EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES FOR NON-PRICE EXPORT PROMOTION: THE CASE OF COTTON

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2002-01-01

    An equilibrium displacement framework was developed to evaluate the effect of exchange rate linked subsidies for non-price export promotion for US cotton. Study results show that an increase in promotion expenditure increased the dollar value and producer welfare of cotton growers. The gross gain to the domestic cotton producers from the exchange-rate linked subsidy scheme was positive. These evidences support exchange rate linked subsidies for US cotton export promotion.

  4. A Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: The Country Histories, 1946-2001

    OpenAIRE

    Reinhart, Carmen

    2002-01-01

    These are the narrative individual country histories of exchange rate arrangements, 1946-2001 that underpin "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation". The chronologies allow us to date dual or multiple exchange rate episodes, as well as to differentiate between pre-announced pegs, crawling pegs, and bands from their de facto counterparts. We think it is important to distinguish between say, de facto pegs or bands from announced pegs or bands, because their proper...

  5. Exchange Rate Exposure and Its Determinants: A Firm and Industry Analysis of the UK Companies

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jiao

    2010-01-01

    This study assesses whether the unexpected exchange rate movements volatilize the UK firms’ stock return based on the firm- and industry-level analysis, and examines whether the magnitude of the exchange rate exposure is determined by the firm-specific factors. Using a sample of 244 UK companies listed in the FTSE 350 during the test period between December 1999 and December 2009, the result documents that the exchange rate fluctuation does affect the firm value. Among the five introduced ex...

  6. Forecasting Exchange Rate Density Using Parametric Models: the Case of Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Miranda Tabak

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper employs a recently developed parametric technique to obtain density forecasts for the Brazilian exchange rate, using the exchange rate options market. Empirical results suggest that the option market contains useful information about future exchange rate density. These results suggests that density forecasts using options markets may add value for portfolio and risk management, and may be useful for financial regulators to assess financial stability.

  7. An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Economic Activities in Nepal

    OpenAIRE

    NARA BAHADUR THAPA

    2002-01-01

    This paper tests the relationship between REER and GDP on the Nepalese economy. In the literature, two channels of transmission exist for the real exchange rate to affect economic activities; these are the aggregate demand channel and the aggregate supply channel. The traditional view has it that the real exchange rate operates through the aggregate demand channel. This means that the depreciation of the real exchange rate enhances the international competitiveness of domestic goods, boosts n...

  8. An Empirical Assessment of the Real Exchange Rate and Poverty in Nigeria

    OpenAIRE

    Ben. U. Omojimite; Victor E. Oriavwote

    2012-01-01

    This paper investigated the influence of the real exchange rate on poverty within the framework of a dependent economy model. Using data covering 1980 to 2010, the result of a Vector Error Correction model (VECM) showed that the volatility of the real exchange rate has significant influence on the level of poverty in Nigeria. Thus, government policies that targets real exchange rate could play significant role in reducing the level of poverty in Nigeria, particularly if supported by basic ins...

  9. Real Exchange Rate Variability: An Empirical Analysis of the Developing Countries Case

    OpenAIRE

    Sebastian Edwards

    1986-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to investigate the potential role of monetary and real factors in explaining real exchange rate variability in developing countries. For this purpose two indexes of real effective exchange rate variability that measure short-term and long-term variability were constructed for 30 countries. The results obtained, using a generalized least squares procedures on cross section data, indicate that real exchange rate variability has been affected both by real and monetar...

  10. Macroeconomic Effects of Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes: New Insights into the Role of Price Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Kollmann, Robert

    2004-01-01

    This Paper analyses the effects of pegged and floating exchange rates using a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model that is calibrated to the US and a European aggregate. The model assumes shocks to money, productivity and the interest parity condition. It captures the fact that the sharp increase in nominal exchange rate volatility after the abandonment of the Bretton Woods (BW) system was accompanied by a commensurate rise in real exchange rate volatility, but had no pronounced effe...

  11. Instability growth rates of crossing sea states.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laine-Pearson, F E

    2010-03-01

    Crossing sea states can occur during adverse weather conditions. The instability of such wave trains has been suggested as a possible mechanism for the formation of rogue (freak or extreme) waves. One model for crossing sea states is weakly nonlinear and finite-amplitude short-crested waves (SCWs) on deep water. SCWs are the resonant interaction of two wave systems each with a different direction of propagation. Recently, it has been shown that the stability of these wave interactions is closely associated with the stability of the oblique nonresonant interaction between two waves. The long-wave instability of such waves is considered here; SCWs are used as a benchmark. By using a mismatch of amplitudes, it is demonstrated that instability growth rates of two crossing waves can be larger than those given by SCWs. This indicates that only considering true resonant interactions can underestimate the contribution from unstable crossing sea states to the possible formation of rogue waves.

  12. The specification of cross exchange rate equations used to test Purchasing Power Parity

    OpenAIRE

    Hunter, J; Simpson, M

    2004-01-01

    The Article considers the speciÞcation of models used to test Pur- chasing Power Parity when applied to cross exchange rates. SpeciÞcally, conventional dynamic models used to test stationarity of the real exchange rate are likely to be misspeciÞed, except when the parameters of each ex- change rate equation are the same

  13. THE EFFECT OF EXCHANGE RATE ON THE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS AND PROTECTION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Handan AKSUYEK,

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available As with all sectors, recent extreme changes occurred in the exchange rates have substantially affected the construction operations. While the rise in foreign exchange rates leads to harmful effects in the negative direction at the operations having foreign exchange – based debt or it provides also advantageous effect in the positive direction at the construction companies having foreign exchange – indexed investments. In this context, this sudden change in foreign exchange rates which cannot be predicted beforehand and emerges as a result of speculative events. As with all operations carrying out foreign exchange – based tasks, these fluctuations in the foreign exchange rate head first among the factors which affect the achievement or failure of the cost or profit targets previously determined by the construction companies as well. Therefore, the companies whose costs and profits consist of different units of currency in their construction agreements should apply to the hedging methods in order to be protected against the exchange rate. As for the main tools of protection method are the derivative products such as forward, futures, swap and optional contracts. In this study, the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the completion costs of construction projects is scrutinized. Moreover, the tools which may be employed by the construction companies in order to get rid of exchange rate which adversely influence the building companies in both directions have been comparatively evaluated.

  14. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    OpenAIRE

    Oana Mionel

    2012-01-01

    This article assesses the impact of the inflation and interest rates on the exchange rates. The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying the Purchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relation between the interest rate and the inflation rate is tested by applying the International Fisher Effect Theory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Parity the study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries – th...

  15. Estimating Exchange Rate Exposure over Various Return Horizons: Focusing on Major Countries in East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Wook Lee

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we estimate the exchange rate exposure, indicating the effect of exchange rate movements on firm values, for a sample of 1,400 firms in seven East Asian countries. The exposure estimates based on various exchange rate variables, return horizons and a control variable are compared. A key result from our analysis is that the long term effect of exchange rate movements on firm values is greater than the short term effect. And we find very similar results from using other exchange rate variables such as the U.S. dollar exchange rate, etc. Second, we add exchange rate volatility as a control variable and find that the extent of exposure is not much changed. Third, we examine the changes in exposure to exchange rate volatility with an increase in return horizon. Consequently the ratio of firms with significant exposures increases with the return horizons. Interestingly, the increase of exposure with the return horizons is faster for exposure to volatility than for exposure to exchange rate itself. Taken as a whole, our findings suggest that the so-called "exposure puzzle" may be a matter of the methodology used to measure exposure.

  16. Modeling and estimating the jump risk of exchange rates: Applications to RMB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiming; Tong, Hanfei

    2008-11-01

    In this paper we propose a new type of continuous-time stochastic volatility model, SVDJ, for the spot exchange rate of RMB, and other foreign currencies. In the model, we assume that the change of exchange rate can be decomposed into two components. One is the normally small-cope innovation driven by the diffusion motion; the other is a large drop or rise engendered by the Poisson counting process. Furthermore, we develop a MCMC method to estimate our model. Empirical results indicate the significant existence of jumps in the exchange rate. Jump components explain a large proportion of the exchange rate change.

  17. The intraday effects of central bank intervention on exchange rate spreads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the intraday effects of intra-marginal intervention in a horizontal band on the exchange rate spread. Official intraday data on Danish intervention transactions in the ERM II, the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Union, facilitates our analysis. We show that intervention...... purchases and sales both exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions. Intervention purchases of the small currency, on average, narrow the spread while intervention sales of the small currency, on average, widen the spread. This is a novel finding that differs from...... those of existing studies that find intervention always widens the exchange rate spread and increases market uncertainty...

  18. Dynamical analyses of the time series for three foreign exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sehyun; Kim, Soo Yong; Jung, Jae-Won; Kim, Kyungsik

    2012-05-01

    In this study, we investigate the multifractal properties of three foreign exchange rates (USD-KRW, USD-JPY, and EUR-USD) that are quoted with different economic scales. We estimate and analyze both the generalized Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation function in three foreign exchange rates. The USD-KRW is shown to have the strongest of the Hurst exponents when compared with the other two foreign exchange rates. In particular, the autocorrelation function of the USD-KRW has the largest memory behavior among three foreign exchange rates. It also exhibits a long-memory property in the first quarter, more than those in the other quarters.

  19. Asymmetric Exchange Rate Exposures: A Search for the Effect of Real Options

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    Real options like the ability to reallocate production resources can lead to an asymmetric exchange rate exposure. Using a stock market approach in which the exchange rate exposure is derived from the information content in the stock prices this study examines the extra-market exchange rate...... exposures of a group of blue chip, industrial companies listed on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange. In these companies the existence of real options is an integrated part of the exchange rate exposure management process. The result of the stock market approach is mixed. Statistically significant asymmetric...... exchange rate exposures are identified successfully but the asymmetries can only to a limited extent be explained by the existence of real options. Financial options and pricing to market are competing explanations. Omitted variable bias further blurs the picture. These problems and the concept of path...

  20. Foreign exchange risk management : how are the largest non-financial companies in Norway managing their foreign exchange rate exposure?

    OpenAIRE

    Eriksen, Krister; Wedøe, Ola

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how the largest non-financial companies in Norway manage their foreign exchange rate exposure. This is investigated through the use of a survey distributed to a sample the largest non-financial firms in Norway. According to our results, the largest non-financial companies in Norway have a predefined strategy for managing foreign exchange risk, which is defined by the board of directors or by the management in the organisation. The companies’ mai...

  1. IMPACT OF MARKET-DETERMINED EXCHANGE RATES ON RICE PRODUCTION AND IMPORT IN NIGERIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aliyu Aishat Ammani

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Rice is an economically important food security crop, cultivated in almost all of Nigeria’s 36 States. Nigeria spends more than 356 billion naira (2.24 billion US dollars annually on rice import. This paper set out to analyze the trend in rice production, productivity, import, value of import and consumption that follows the adoption of the Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP in Nigeria, with emphasis on the effects of exchange rate (ER deregulation on domestic rice production and rice imports over the period 1986-2010. Relevant time series data were collected and used. A semi-log growth rate model and 2simple linear regression models were developed and estimated. Highlights of the findings include (i accelerated rate of growth in rice production (Instantaneous Growth Rate (IGR 2.2%; Cumulative Growth Rate (CGR 2.2%; rice hectarage (IGR 3.7%; CGR 3.8%; rice importation (IGR 8.5%; CGR8.9%; expenditure on rice importation (IGR 10.6%; CGR 11.2% and rice consumption (IGR 3.4%; CGR 3.5% alongside a significant deceleration in rice yield (IGR -1.4%; CGR -201.4% (ii The observed significant increase in domestic rice production cannot be confidently attributed to ER deregulation alone because it does not lead to a decrease in rice importation into Nigeria. (iii The significant increase in domestic rice importation as observed contradicts a priori expectation that ER deregulation will lead to significant decrease in rice importation. The study concluded that free market approach alone cannot stimulate local agricultural production in countries where farmers producing under low-technology-agriculture are put in direct competition with farmers from advancedtechnology-agriculture; hence governments need to restrict importation to protect local producers.

  2. The National Bank of Ukraine Communication Strategy Optimization within the Framework of Impact on Exchange Rate Expectations of Economic Agents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roksolana Holub

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available An important challenge in terms of smoothing excessive exchange rate volatility under the conditions of flexible exchange rate arrangement is optimization of the communication strategy of the country’s monetary regulator. Over the past two decades, communication (information support has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. Communication enables influence of the volatility of financial markets, improvement of the predictability of monetary policy, and helps to achieve macroeconomic objectives. Nevertheless, as of today, consensus on the issue into what the optimal strategy of the central bank communication is has not been reached, either in Ukraine, nor in developed countries yet. Considering the abovementioned, the methodical approaches to improve the central bank’s communication strategies, based on the use of its verbal interventions in the context of smoothing out excessive cyclical volatility of exchange rates of the national currency, are determined in this article. It is suggested to consider the growth of the factor “information signal/information noise” as a criterion of the central bank’s optimal communication strategy. It is proved that the monetary regulator’s main task should be the continual provision of information concerning a fundamentally justified level of the exchange rate and the level of deviation of the actual rate of the national currency from its fundamental-equilibrium level, as of a given time, to the national foreign exchange market participants. The methodological approach to the improvement of information support of forecasting fundamentally specified value of the national currency is outlined.

  3. Examining the reaction of monetary policy to exchange rate changes: A nonlinear ARDL approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manogaran, Lavaneesvari; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-04-01

    Previous studies showed the exchange rate changes can have significant impacts on macroeconomic performance. Over fluctuation of exchange rate may lead to economic instability. Hence, monetary policy rule tends to react to exchange rate changes. Especially, in emerging economies where the policy-maker tends to limit the exchange rate movement through interventions. In this study, we seek to investigate how the monetary policy rule reacts to exchange rate changes. The nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is applied to capture the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes on monetary policy reaction function (interest rate). We focus the study in ASEAN5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Singapore). The results indicated the existence of asymmetric effect of exchange rates changes on the monetary reaction function for all ASEAN5 countries in the long-run. Where, in majority of the cases the monetary policy is reacting to the appreciation and depreciation of exchange rate by raising the policy rate. This affirms the intervention of policymakers with the `fear of floating' behavior.

  4. Quantitative Comparisons on the Intrinsic Features of Foreign Exchange Rates Between the 1920s and the 2010s: Case of the USD-GBP Exchange Rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young Wook Han

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper quantitatively compares the intrinsic features of the daily USD-GBP exchange rates in two different periods, the 1920s and the 2010s, under the same freely floating exchange rate system. Even though the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be much less organized and developed than in the 2010s, this paper finds that both the long memory volatility property and the structural break appear to be the common intrigue features of the exchange rates in the two periods by using the FIGARCH model. In particular, the long memory volatility properties in the two periods are found to be upward biased and overstated because of the structural breaks in the exchange markets. Thus this paper applies the Adaptive-FIGARCH model to consider the long memory volatility property and the structural breaks jointly. The main finding is that the structural breaks in the exchange markets affect the long memory volatility property significantly in the two periods but the degree of the long memory volatility property in the 1920s is reduced more remarkably than in the 2010s after the structural breaks are accounted for; thus implying that the structural breaks in the foreign exchange markets in the 1920s seem to be more significant.

  5. PPP and the real exchange rate-real interest rate differential puzzle revisited: evidence from non-stationary panel data

    OpenAIRE

    Georgios E. Chortareas; Rebecca L. Driver

    2001-01-01

    This paper examines the evidence for two of the relationships that underpin (explicitly or implicitly) much of international macroeconomics. The first is purchasing power parity (PPP), or the hypothesis that there exists a constant long-run equilibrium real exchange rate. The second establishes a relationship between real exchange rates and real interest rate differentials. The tests are conducted on a panel of 18 OECD economies using the United States as a numeraire for the post-Bretton Wood...

  6. Explore the Application of Financial Engineering in the Management of Exchange Rate Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In the background where the domestic enterprises commonly have a weak protection consciousness against the exchange rate risk, this article makes a deep analysis based on the definition of exchange rate risk and its cause. By comparison of the traditional management method of exchange rate risk with another one based on financial engineering tools, it also deeply analyzes the method to use the financial engineering technology in the management of exchange rate risk, and concludes the primary purpose of exchange rate risk management is for hedging. This article proposes an optimal analysis method in two aspects, namely the minimum risk and maximum efficiency, for the forward-based optimal hedging, and proposes an optimal analysis method of dynamic hedging for the optimal hedging of option-based tools. Based on the description of the application of financial tools in foreign exchange futures, forward contract, currency exchange and foreign exchange option, it makes an empirical analysis on the management of foreign exchange risk by taking an assumed T company as the carrier and based on the trading tools of forward foreign exchange and currency option, which describes the operation procedure of financial tools in a more direct way and proves the efficiency of the optimal analysis method of this article.

  7. Are the Intraday Effects of Central Bank Intervention on Exchange Rate Spreads Asymmetric and State Dependent?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fatum, Rasmus; Pedersen, Jesper; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    This paper investigates the intraday effects of unannounced foreign exchange intervention on bid-ask exchange rate spreads using official intraday intervention data provided by the Danish central bank. Our starting point is a simple theoretical model of the bid-ask spread which we use to formulate...... exert a significant influence on the exchange rate spread, but in opposite directions: intervention purchases of the smaller currency, on average, reduce the spread while intervention sales, on average, increase the spread. We also show that intervention only affects the exchange rate spread when...

  8. Exchange rate dynamics, structural breaks, and central bank interventions in Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Mario Uribe

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effectiveness of the Colombian Central Bank´s interventions in the foreign exchange market during the period 2000 to 2014. We examine the stochastic process that describes the exchange rate, with a focus on the detection of structural breaks or unit roots in the data to determine whether the Central Bank´s interventions were effective. We find that the exchange rate can be described either by a random walk or by a trend-stationary model with multiple breaks. In neither cases do we find any evidence that the exchange rate was affected by the Central Bank interventions.

  9. Mutually catalyzed birth of population and assets in exchange-driven growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Zhenquan; Ke, Jianhong; Ye, Gaoxiang

    2006-10-01

    We propose an exchange-driven aggregation growth model of population and assets with mutually catalyzed birth to study the interaction between the population and assets in their exchange-driven processes. In this model, monomer (or equivalently, individual) exchange occurs between any pair of aggregates of the same species (population or assets). The rate kernels of the exchanges of population and assets are K(k,l)=Kkl and L(k,l)=Lkl , respectively, at which one monomer migrates from an aggregate of size k to another of size l . Meanwhile, an aggregate of one species can yield a new monomer by the catalysis of an arbitrary aggregate of the other species. The rate kernel of asset-catalyzed population birth is I(k,l)=Iklμ [and that of population-catalyzed asset birth is J(k,l)=Jklν ], at which an aggregate of size k gains a monomer birth when it meets a catalyst aggregate of size l . The kinetic behaviors of the population and asset aggregates are solved based on the rate equations. The evolution of the aggregate size distributions of population and assets is found to fall into one of three categories for different parameters μ and ν : (i) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to the conventional scaling form in the case of μ⩽0 (ν⩽0) , (ii) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to a modified scaling form in the case of ν=0 and μ>0 ( μ=0 and ν>0 ), and (iii) both population and asset aggregates undergo gelation transitions at a finite time in the case of μ=ν>0 .

  10. Some Tests of Random Walk Hypothesis for Bulgarian Foreign Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Nikolai Gueorguiev

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to check if the exchange rate in newly emerged, relatively thin foreign exchange markets, follows a random walk pattern. The findings of the current study cast doubts on random walk presence in Bulgarian exchange rates against major international currencies. It turns out that the series of daily returns are stationary but correlated and therefore can be modelled better by higher-order ARIMA processes than by random walk.

  11. 12 CFR Appendix A to Subpart A of... - Minimum Capital Components for Interest Rate and Foreign Exchange Rate Contracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... risks (including when-issued securities and forward deposits accepted). b. Foreign Exchange Rate... options purchased. iv. Any other instrument that gives rise to similar credit risks. 2. Foreign exchange... to the estate of a defaulter, even if the defaulter or the estate of the defaulter is a net creditor...

  12. Short- and long-run exchange rate effects on forest product trade: evidence from panel data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torjus F. Bolksejo; Joseph Buongiorno

    2006-01-01

    Impacts of exchange rates on international forest products trade are widely debated, but the empirical evidence regarding this issue is still inconclusive. Here, we report findings of the impacts of the exchange rates on the main forest product imports and exports of the US, from January 1989 to November 2004. Export data consisted of monthly series of the main...

  13. 76 FR 6128 - Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-02-03

    ... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. ER11-2730-000] Energy Exchange International, LLC; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for... proceeding Energy Exchange International, LLC's application for market-based rate authority, with an...

  14. THE EVOLUTION OF CURRENCY RELATIONS IN THE LIGHT OF MAJOR EXCHANGE RATE ADJUSTMENT THEORIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergiy TKACH

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the impact of major exchange rate adjustment theories on the global monetary system. The reasons of the previous organization forms of monetary relations collapse at the global level are defined. The main achievements and failures of major exchange rate theories are described.

  15. Exchange Rate Exposures and Strategies of Industrial Companies: An Empirical Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy.......This article investigates empirically the potential and actual exchange rate exposure strategies of industrial companies in relation to identifying and quantifying the neutral financial positions in an optimal hedging strategy....

  16. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    dollar - Mauritian Rupee Exchange rate and thereafter assessing the accuracy ... exchange rate. Recently, Hung-Chung et al. (2009) have shown that a GARCH model with an underlying leptokurtic asymmetric distribution outperforms one ... observe that periods of high volatility as well as those of lower volatility occur. 4 ...

  17. Predicting Offender-Generated Exchange Rates: Implications for a Theory of Sentence Severity

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, David C.; Wood, Peter B.; Mooney, Jennifer L.; Minor, Kevin I.

    2005-01-01

    We solicited offender-generated exchange rates between prison and several noncustodial sanctions from a sample of 588 offenders currently serving community-based punishments. We then regressed these exchange rates on demographic, attitudinal, and correctional experience indicators. Males, Blacks, older offenders, offenders with prison experience,…

  18. Differences between foreign exchange rate regimes: the view from the tails

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.G. Koedijk (Kees); Ph.A. Stork (Philip); C.G. de Vries (Casper)

    1992-01-01

    textabstractIn the literature on the empirical unconditional distribution of foreign exchange rate returns there is indication that the type of distribution function is related to the form of exchange rate regime. The analysis has been hampered by the nonnestedness of alternative distribution

  19. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  20. Exchange-rate determination : is there a role for macroeconomic fundamentals?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jong, E. de

    1997-01-01

    This paper reviews recent trends in exchange rate modelling with a view toward assessing new claims that macroeconomic variables are useful for explaining exchange rates. The application to co-integration techniques and the use of larger datasets have led to more empirical evidence in favour of both

  1. Aspects of Exchange Rate Behaviour and Management in India 1993- 98

    OpenAIRE

    Renu Kohli

    2004-01-01

    The change in regime in India from a multi-currency peg to a floating price convertibility provides sufficient motivation for a preliminary analysis of the country s exchange rate behaviour and management between 1993-99.Using international experience as a comparator, the paper finds several deviations from the international trends; these are mainly driven by exchange rate management policies.

  2. Trade openness, real exchange rates and job reallocation : Evidence from Belgium

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    I. Colantone (Italo)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractThis paper investigates the impact of real exchange rate movements on job reallocation at the industry level. The analysis focuses on the manufacturing sector of Belgium, using data for 82 NACE 3-digit industries, over the time span 1996-2002. I find that real exchange rate changes do

  3. GROWTH RATE DISTRIBUTION OF BORAX SINGLE CRYSTALS ON THE (001 FACE UNDER VARIOUS FLOW RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suharso Suharso

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The growth rates of borax single crystals from aqueous solutions at various flow rates in the (001 direction were measured using in situ cell method. From the growth rate data obtained, the growth rate distribution of borax crystals was investigated using Minitab Software and SPSS Software at relative supersaturation of 0807 and temperature of 25 °C. The result shows that normal, gamma, and log-normal distribution give a reasonably good fit to GRD. However, there is no correlation between growth rate distribution and flow rate of solution.   Keywords: growth rate dispersion (GRD, borax, flow rate

  4. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers.

  5. High-frequency data and the effectiveness of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petr Zeman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The boom of information technology in recent years significantly influenced the development of the financial markets. Financial markets have become accessible to the public, and increased demand for financial instruments is inevitably reflected in the advanced menu of securities dealers who currently offer a wide variety of investment in the underlying assets and through financial leverage allows investors to profit from tiny price changes of the underlying asset. Shortening of trading period and increasing the frequency of the trades clearly contributes to the growth of profits of securities dealers. The question remains whether this trading method offers the advantage to the investor himself, and whether the investor is able to take advantage of potential market inefficiencies to achieve above-average profits in the short term period. Therefore, this paper analyzes the behaviour of the spot exchange rate EUR/USD within a day, and through statistical tests examining the validity of the random walk hypothesis for the 5-minute, hourly, 4-hourly and daily changes in the spot exchange rate of the currency pair EUR/USD.

  6. Causal Nexus between Stock Price, Demand for Money, Interest Rate, Foreign Institutional Investment, and Exchange Rates in India: A Post Subprime Crisis Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iti Vyas

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  makes  an  attempt  to  empirically  examine  the  causal  nexus  between  stock price, demand for money, interest rates, foreign institutional investment and exchange rates in India in the post subprime mortgage crisis period. The study employed Granger causality test, Vector Auto Regression and Johansen Maximum Likelihood procedure to examine the short  run  and  long  run  dynamic  interaction  among  the  above  mentioned  variables  for  the period January 1993 to May 2009. The major indings of the study are: stock return affects exchange rate return, net foreign institutional investment and growth of demand for money. Growth  of  demand  for  money,  in  turn,  affects  interest  rate.  Interest  rate  is  more  affected by exchange rate return. Foreign institutional investment also affects interest rate. The co-integration  test  conirms  that  there  does  not  exist  any  long  run  equilibrium  relationship between stock return and exchange rate return ";} // -->activate javascript

  7. Sweat secretion rates in growth hormone disorders

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sneppen, S B; Main, K M; Juul, A

    2000-01-01

    While increased sweating is a prominent symptom in patients with active acromegaly, reduced sweating is gaining status as part of the growth hormone deficiency (GHD) syndrome.......While increased sweating is a prominent symptom in patients with active acromegaly, reduced sweating is gaining status as part of the growth hormone deficiency (GHD) syndrome....

  8. EBSP studies of growth rates during recrystallization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juul Jensen, D.

    1996-01-01

    . The potential of the EBSP technique for both these types of measurements is illustrated for recrystallization of heavily deformed aluminium. It is discussed how these approaches apply to grain growth. Finally, new possibilities for in-situ grain growth studies by 3D mapping of orientations in the bulk...

  9. Tourism, real output and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia: a view from rolling sub-samples

    OpenAIRE

    Tang, Chor Foon

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the tourism-growth nexus for Malaysia with the cointegration and Granger causality tests. This study covers the monthly data from January 1989 to May 2010. The Johansen’s cointegration and the residuals-based test for cointegration with regime shift consistently suggest that tourist arrivals, real output, and real effective exchange rate in Malaysia are cointegrated. In terms of Granger causality, this study finds different sources of causality. In th...

  10. Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water at hydrothermal temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiba, H.; Sakai, H.

    1985-01-01

    Oxygen isotope exchange rate between dissolved sulfate and water was experimentally determined at 100, 200 and 300 deg C. The isotope exchange rate is strongly dependent on temperature and pH of the solution. Combining the temperature and pH dependence of the reaction rate, the exchange reaction was estimated to be first-order with respect to sulfate. The logarithm of apparent rate constant of exchange reaction at a given temperature is a function of the pH calculated at the experimental temperatures. From the pH dependence of the apparent rate constant, it was deduced that the isotope exchange reaction between dissolved sulfate and water proceeds through collision between H 2 SO 4 0 and H 2 O at low pH, and between HSO 4 - and H 2 O at intermediate pH. The isotope exchange rate obtained indicates that oxygen isotope geothermometry utilizing the studied isotope exchange is suitable for temperature estimation of geothermal reservoirs. The extrapolated half-life of this reaction to oceanic temperature is about 10 9 years, implying that exchange between oceanic sulfate and water cannot control the oxygen isotope ratio of oceanic sulfates. (author)

  11. Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuation to the Romanian Foreign Currency Reserve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lavinia Diana Vasile

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we intend to indentify the impact of the currency rate of exchange variation of the two main currencies which represent Romania’s foreign currency reserve and the stress test it submits the latter. Up to the present moment there not established a cause-effect relationship or correlation between the foreign currency exchage rate was variation and the foreign currency reserve. In this respect we used an econometrics model based on cointegration analysis of the three series of data corresponding to the period of time 31.01.1995-31.06.2006 (the EURO exchange rate, the USD exchange rate and the foreign currency reserve.

  12. Inventories of Asian textile producers, US cotton exports, and the exchange rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Durmaz Nazif

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The present paper develops a model with US cotton exports depending on the stock-to-use ratio, trade weighted exchange rates, and the relative cotton prices. The role of inventories in cotton consumption is examined in five textile producing cotton importers, China, Indonesia, Thailand, South Korea, and Taiwan. Cotton inventory dynamics is diverse among Asian textile producers. Relative prices have negative effect in all markets as expected. Exchange rate elasticities show that effects should be examined for each separate market. Changes in rates of depreciation also have stronger effects than exchange rate. Results reveal that these countries are not all that homogenous.

  13. The Effects of Workers’ Remittances on Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports Dynamics -New Evidence from Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adnan Khurshid

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impact of remittances on the exchange rate and exports in Pakistan, using the system GMM aproach on annual data series. We carry out a full sample Granger causality test along with the sub-sample rolling window approach using monthly data series to find the causal relationship between remittances (REM and the exchange rate (EXR. The System GMM results reveal that remittances depreciate the exchange rate and have a positive influence on export competitiveness. In addition to this, the remittance inflow appreciates the exchange rate only if it is used for savings and negatively affects competitiveness if it is channeled towards consumption. The change in exchange rate regime from multiple to flexible depreciated the exchange rate while, the global financial crises uplifted the currency rate and negatively affect the exports. The results show the bidirectional causal relationship between remittances and the exchange rate. The outcomes further reveal that the parameters in the VAR model are unstable, which is a clear indication of the presence of structural changes. The rolling window estimation approach with time-varying characteristics finds bi-directional causality between REM and the EXR in the different sub-samples. The results of this study fall in line with the portfolio model proposed by Mussa (1984 which states that the flow of remittances causes appreciation. The sub-sample causality is related to significant economic events, which means the results are not a statistical artifact.

  14. Effects of long-term low atmospheric pressure on gas exchange and growth of lettuce

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Yongkang; Guo, Shuangsheng; Dong, Wenping; Qin, Lifeng; Ai, Weidang; Lin, Shan

    2010-09-01

    The objectives of this research were to determine photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and growth of lettuce at long-term low atmospheric pressure. Lettuce ( Lactuca sativa L . cv. Youmaicai) plants were grown at 40 kPa total pressure (8.4 kPa p) or 101 kPa total pressure (20.9 kPa p) from seed to harvest for 35 days. Germination rate of lettuce seeds decreased by 7.6% at low pressure, although this was not significant. There was no significant difference in crop photosynthetic rate between hypobaria and ambient pressure during the 35-day study. The crop evapotranspiration rate was significantly lower at low pressure than that at ambient pressure from 20 to 30 days after planting (DAP), but it had no significant difference before 20 DAP or after 30 DAP. The growth cycle of lettuce plants at low pressure was delayed. At low pressure, lettuce leaves were curly at the seedling stage and this disappeared gradually as the plants grew. Ambient lettuce plants were yellow and had an epinastic growth at harvest. The shoot height, leaf number, leaf length and shoot/root ratio were lower at low pressure than those at ambient pressure, while leaf area and root growth increased. Total biomass of lettuce plants grown at two pressures had no significant difference. Ethylene production at low pressure decreased significantly by 38.8% compared with ambient pressure. There was no significant difference in microelements, nutritional phytochemicals and nitrate concentrations at the two treatments. This research shows that lettuce can be grown at long-term low pressure (40 kPa) without significant adverse effects on seed germination, gas exchange and plant growth. Furthermore, ethylene release was reduced in hypobaria.

  15. The American Foreign Exchange Option in Time-Dependent One-Dimensional Diffusion Model for Exchange Rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehman, Nasir; Shashiashvili, Malkhaz

    2009-01-01

    The classical Garman-Kohlhagen model for the currency exchange assumes that the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates are constant and the exchange rate follows a log-normal diffusion process.In this paper we consider the general case, when exchange rate evolves according to arbitrary one-dimensional diffusion process with local volatility that is the function of time and the current exchange rate and where the domestic and foreign currency risk-free interest rates may be arbitrary continuous functions of time. First non-trivial problem we encounter in time-dependent case is the continuity in time argument of the value function of the American put option and the regularity properties of the optimal exercise boundary. We establish these properties based on systematic use of the monotonicity in volatility for the value functions of the American as well as European options with convex payoffs together with the Dynamic Programming Principle and we obtain certain type of comparison result for the value functions and corresponding exercise boundaries for the American puts with different strikes, maturities and volatilities.Starting from the latter fact that the optimal exercise boundary curve is left continuous with right-hand limits we give a mathematically rigorous and transparent derivation of the significant early exercise premium representation for the value function of the American foreign exchange put option as the sum of the European put option value function and the early exercise premium.The proof essentially relies on the particular property of the stochastic integral with respect to arbitrary continuous semimartingale over the predictable subsets of its zeros. We derive from the latter the nonlinear integral equation for the optimal exercise boundary which can be studied by numerical methods

  16. Exchange rate prediction with multilayer perceptron neural network using gold price as external factor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Fathian

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of predicting the exchange rate time series in the foreign exchange rate market is going to be solved using a time-delayed multilayer perceptron neural network with gold price as external factor. The input for the learning phase of the artificial neural network are the exchange rate data of the last five days plus the gold price in two different currencies of the exchange rate as the external factor for helping the artificial neural network improving its forecast accuracy. The five-day delay has been chosen because of the weekly cyclic behavior of the exchange rate time series with the consideration of two holidays in a week. The result of forecasts are then compared with using the multilayer peceptron neural network without gold price external factor by two most important evaluation techniques in the literature of exchange rate prediction. For the experimental analysis phase, the data of three important exchange rates of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY are used.

  17. Design of Plant Gas Exchange Experiments in a Variable Pressure Growth Chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corey, Kenneth A.

    1996-01-01

    Sustainable human presence in extreme environments such as lunar and martian bases will require bioregenerative components to human life support systems where plants are used for generation of oxygen, food, and water. Reduced atmospheric pressures will be used to minimize mass and engineering requirements. Few studies have assessed the metabolic and developmental responses of plants to reduced pressure and varied oxygen atmospheres. The first tests of hypobaric pressures on plant gas exchange and biomass production at the Johnson Space Center will be initiated in January 1996 in the Variable Pressure Growth Chamber (VPGC), a large, closed plant growth chamber rated for 10.2 psi. Experiments were designed and protocols detailed for two complete growouts each of lettuce and wheat to generate a general database for human life support requirements and to answer questions about plant growth processes in reduced pressure and varied oxygen environments. The central objective of crop growth studies in the VPGC is to determine the influence of reduced pressure and reduced oxygen on the rates of photosynthesis, dark respiration, evapotranspiration and biomass production of lettuce and wheat. Due to the constraint of one experimental unit, internal controls, called pressure transients, will be used to evaluate rates of CO2 uptake, O2 evolution, and H2O generation. Pressure transients will give interpretive power to the results of repeated growouts at both reduced and ambient pressures. Other experiments involve the generation of response functions to partial pressures of O2 and CO2 and to light intensity. Protocol for determining and calculating rates of gas exchange have been detailed. In order to build these databases and implement the necessary treatment combinations in short time periods, specific requirements for gas injections and removals have been defined. A set of system capability checks will include determination of leakage rates conducted prior to the actual crop

  18. Exchange Rate Pass Throught: an Analysis for the Costarican Economy from 1991 to 2001

    OpenAIRE

    Leon, Jorge; Morera, Ana Patricia; Ramos, Welmer

    2001-01-01

    This paper estimates a coefficient of pass through for Costa Rica and tries to determine the importance of some factors that had been pointed out by several empiric studies as probable determinants (GDP gap, real exchange rate deviation from equilibrium, economy openness, and inflationary lag). The coefficient is estimated by OLS. In order to estimate the dynamic between exchange rate and inflation rate a VAR analysis is conducted. In the short run the pass through coefficient is 16% with two...

  19. De Facto Exchange Rate Regime Classifications Are Better Than You Think

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Bleaney; Mo Tian; Lin Yin

    2015-01-01

    Several de facto exchange rate regime classifications have been widely used in empirical research, but they are known to disagree with one another to a disturbing extent. We dissect the algorithms employed and argue that they can be significantly improved. We implement the improvements, and show that there is a far higher agreement rate between the modified classifications. We conclude that the current pessimism about de facto exchange rate regime classification schemes is unwarranted.

  20. Variability in benthic exchange rate, depth, and residence time beneath a shallow coastal estuary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russoniello, C. J.; Michael, H. A.; Heiss, J.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrodynamically-driven exchange of water between the water column and shallow seabed aquifer, benthic exchange, is a significant and dynamic component of coastal and estuarine fluid budgets, but wave-induced benthic exchange has not been measured in the field. Mixing between surface water and groundwater solutes promotes ecologically important chemical reactions, so quantifying benthic exchange rates, depths, and residence times, constrains estimates of coastal chemical cycling. In this study, we present the first field-based direct measurements of wave-induced exchange and compare it to exchange induced by the other primary drivers of exchange - tides, and currents. We deployed instruments in a shallow estuary to measure benthic exchange and temporal variability over an 11-day period. Differential pressure sensors recorded pressure gradients across the seabed, and up-and down-looking ADCPs recorded currents and pressures from which wave parameters, surface-water currents, and water depth were determined. Wave-induced exchange was calculated directly from 1) differential pressure measurements, and indirectly with an analytical solution based on wave parameters from 2) ADCP and 3) weather station data. Groundwater flow models were used to assess the effects of aquifer properties on benthic exchange depth and residence time. Benthic exchange driven by tidal pumping or current-bedform interaction was calculated from tidal stage variation and from ADCP-measured currents at the bed, respectively. Waves were the primary benthic exchange driver (average = 20.0 cm/d, maximum = 92.3 cm/d) during the measurement period. Benthic exchange due to tides (average = 3.7 cm/d) and current-bedform interaction (average = 6.5x10-2 cm/d) was much lower. Wave-induced exchange calculated from pressure measurements and ADCP-measured wave parameters matched well, but wind-based rates underestimated wave energy and exchange. Groundwater models showed that residence time and depth increased

  1. Gas exchange and growth responses to nutrient enrichment in invasive Glyceria maxima and native New Zealand Carex species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sorrell, Brian Keith; Brix, Hans; Fitridge, Isla

    2012-01-01

    , but that its success under nutrient enrichment is a consequence of greater physiological responsiveness and growth plasticity, and stronger integration between gas exchange and growth, coupled with indifference to resource wastage (i.e. low WUE and NUE) at high nutrient supply. The poorer performance of G......We compared photosynthetic gas exchange, the photosynthesis-leaf nitrogen (N) relationship, and growth response to nutrient enrichment in the invasive wetland grass Glyceria maxima (Hartman) Holmburg with two native New Zealand Carex sedges (C. virgata Boott and C. secta Boott), to explore...... the ecophysiological traits contributing to invasive behaviour. The photosynthesis-nitrogen relationship was uniform across all three species, and the maximum light-saturated rate of photosynthesis expressed on a leaf area basis (Amaxa) did not differ significantly between species. However, specific leaf area (SLA...

  2. Re-assessing copepod growth using the Moult Rate method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hirst, Andrew G.; Keister, J. E.; Richardson, A. J.

    2014-01-01

    Estimating growth and production rates of mesozooplankton, and copepods in particular, is important in describing flows of material and energy though pelagic systems. Over the past 30 years, the Moult Rate (MR) method has been used to estimate juvenile copepod growth rates in ∼40 papers. Yet the ...

  3. Effective transfer entropy approach to information flow between exchange rates and stock markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sensoy, Ahmet; Sobaci, Cihat; Sensoy, Sadri; Alali, Fatih

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the strength and direction of information flow between exchange rates and stock prices in several emerging countries by the novel concept of effective transfer entropy (an alternative non-linear causality measure) with symbolic encoding methodology. Analysis shows that before the 2008 crisis, only low level interaction exists between these two variables and exchange rates dominate stock prices in general. During crisis, strong bidirectional interaction arises. In the post-crisis period, the strong interaction continues to exist and in general stock prices dominate exchange rates

  4. The Impact of Real Exchange Rate Volatility on the Exports of Turkey: Analysis of Different Industries

    OpenAIRE

    Serra Eren Sarioglu

    2013-01-01

    The impact of real exchange rate volatility on the exports of a country is one of the crucial issues to consider. In this paper, the effect of exchange rate volatility on the exports of Turkey is investigated. Four of the leading industries of Turkey are chosen and examined for the period 2003-2011. Bounds test and ARDL approach are applied to the monthly figures of the variables. According to the empirical findings of the analysis, exchange rate volatility does not have any significant effec...

  5. Common factors and the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rafael de Oliveira Felício

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studies the usefulness of factor models in explaining the dynamics of the exchange rate Real / Dollar from January 1999 to August 2011. The paper verifies that the inclusion of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates of a set of countries significantly improves the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic fundamentals commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate. The paper also links the information contained in the factors to global shocks like the demand for dollars - a "dollar effect", volatility and liquidity of global financial markets.

  6. Determinants of the AUD/USD Exchange Rate and Policy Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Yu Hsing

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines short-run determinants of the Australian dollar/U.S. dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model. Applying the EGARCH method, the paper finds that the AUD/USD exchange rate is positively associated with the 10-year U.S. real government bond yield, U.S. real GDP, the U.S. real stock price and the expected exchange rate and negatively influenced by the Australian real government bond yield, Australian real GDP, and the real Australian stock price.

  7. Measurement of seedling growth rate by machine vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howarth, M. Scott; Stanwood, Phillip C.

    1993-05-01

    Seed vigor and germination tests have traditionally been used to determine deterioration of seed samples. Vigor tests describe the seed potential to emerge and produce a mature crop under certain field conditions and one measure is seedling growth rate. A machine vision system was developed to measure root growth rate over the entire germination period. The machine vision measurement technique was compared to the manual growth rate technique. The vision system provided similar growth rate measurements as compared to the manual growth rate technique. The average error between the system and a manual measurement was -0.13 for the lettuce test and -0.07 for the sorghum test. This technique also provided an accurate representation of the growth rate as well as percent germination.

  8. Production of giant gourami Osphronemus goramy Lac. juvenile with different rate of water exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tatag Budiardi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACTGiant gourami Osphronemus goramy Lac. is one of the most important fresh water fish commodities with increasing production level every year. Water quality management through a proper water exchange both in quantity and quality can be one of the alternatives to support the elevating production. This research was conducted from July to August 2010 at the Aquaculture Production Technology and Management Laboratory, Department of Aquaculture, Faculty of Fisheries and Marine Science, Bogor Agricultural University. The juvenile used was 0.84±0.011 cm in length and 0.017±0.001 cm in weight which reared in nine units of aquaria with a size of 60×29×33 cm3. Silk worm was used as the feed and provided daily at satiation. Water exchange was performed twice a day at a level depending on the treatment, namely 75% (50% at morning and 25% at evening, 100% (50% at morning and evening and 125% (75% at morning and 50% at evening of total water volume. Water exchange at 75%, 100%, and 125%/day resulted in survival rates of 94.11±0.63%; 91.89±2.02%; and 93.89±0.75%; specific growth rates of 7.43±0.15%, 8.58±0.24%, and 9.97±0.18%. Growth rate in length of 1.06±0.06 cm, 1.33±0.04 cm, and 1.55±0.01 cm; coefficient of variation in length of 11.31±1.43%, 9.35±1.46%, and 6.90±2.30%; feed efficiency of 12.47±0.30%, 14.32±1.05%, and 19.67±0.54%. The financial benefits resulted of the process were worth of IDR.351,903.00; IDR.402,302.00; and IDR.464,715.00; whereas R/C ratio of 1.71; 1.80; dan 1.90; BEP of 1,845 unit, 1,645 unit, and 1,517 unit; payback period (PP of 0.97 years, 0.85 years, and 0.74 years; and the cost production as much as IDR.79.90; IDR.82.70; and IDR.82.90/individual, respectively. The treatments were significantly different on several parameters, such as specific growth rate, length of growth rate, feed efficiency at p<0.05. The results of this experiment showed that 125% daily water exchange improved the production

  9. Is the South African exchange rate volatile? Application of the arch framework.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thato Julius Mokoma

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available This study applies the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH model to forecast exchange rate volatility in South Africa for the period 1990Q1 to 2014Q2. The ARCH (1 and ARCH (2 models were constructed using four variables; namely, exchange rate, gross domestic product, inflation and interest rates. Upon addressing the issue of stationarity, the models were fitted and the ARCH (1 model was found to be fit. This model revealed a high volatility of exchange rate compared to the ARCH (2 model. Prior to forecasting, the selected model was subjected to a battery of diagnostics tests and was found to be stable and well specified. The forecasts from the ARCH (1 model proved that in the near future, exchange rate will not be highly volatile though SA will experience depreciation in its currency.

  10. Long Term Validity of Monetary Exchange Rate Model: Evidence from Turkey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ugur Ahmet

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, it was analyzed if there is a long term relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals within the periods of 1998:1-2011:2 in Turkey. This relationship has been analysed by using structural VAR (SVAR model. Besides, Granger causality test and Dolado-Lütkepohl Granger causality test were used to determine if there were a causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals. As a result of the SVAR model, the relationship among the series related to nominal exchange rate and money supply, GDP, interest rate in Turkey in long term were not determined and at the end of causality tests, causality relationship among the nominal exchange rate and monetary fundamentals were not determined.

  11. Depreciations without Exports? : Global Value Chains and the Exchange Rate Elasticity of Exports

    OpenAIRE

    Ahmed, Swarnali; Ruta, Michele; Appendino, Maximiliano

    2015-01-01

    This paper analyzes how the exchange rate elasticity of exports has changed over time and across countries and sectors, and how the formation of global value chains has affected this relationship. The analysis uses a panel framework covering 46 countries over the period 1996-2012, and first finds evidence that the elasticity of manufacturing export volumes to the real effective exchange ra...

  12. Quantification of protein backbone hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates by solid state NMR spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Amo, Juan-Miguel Lopez; Fink, Uwe; Reif, Bernd

    2010-12-01

    We present the quantification of backbone amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for immobilized proteins. The experiments make use of the deuterium isotope effect on the amide nitrogen chemical shift, as well as on proton dilution by deuteration. We find that backbone amides in the microcrystalline α-spectrin SH3 domain exchange rather slowly with the solvent (with exchange rates negligible within the individual (15)N-T (1) timescales). We observed chemical exchange for 6 residues with HDX exchange rates in the range from 0.2 to 5 s(-1). Backbone amide (15)N longitudinal relaxation times that we determined previously are not significantly affected for most residues, yielding no systematic artifacts upon quantification of backbone dynamics (Chevelkov et al. 2008b). Significant exchange was observed for the backbone amides of R21, S36 and K60, as well as for the sidechain amides of N38, N35 and for W41ε. These residues could not be fit in our previous motional analysis, demonstrating that amide proton chemical exchange needs to be considered in the analysis of protein dynamics in the solid-state, in case D(2)O is employed as a solvent for sample preparation. Due to the intrinsically long (15)N relaxation times in the solid-state, the approach proposed here can expand the range of accessible HDX rates in the intermediate regime that is not accessible so far with exchange quench and MEXICO type experiments.

  13. Quantification of protein backbone hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates by solid state NMR spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez del Amo, Juan-Miguel; Fink, Uwe; Reif, Bernd

    2010-01-01

    We present the quantification of backbone amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates (HDX) for immobilized proteins. The experiments make use of the deuterium isotope effect on the amide nitrogen chemical shift, as well as on proton dilution by deuteration. We find that backbone amides in the microcrystalline α-spectrin SH3 domain exchange rather slowly with the solvent (with exchange rates negligible within the individual 15 N-T 1 timescales). We observed chemical exchange for 6 residues with HDX exchange rates in the range from 0.2 to 5 s -1 . Backbone amide 15 N longitudinal relaxation times that we determined previously are not significantly affected for most residues, yielding no systematic artifacts upon quantification of backbone dynamics (Chevelkov et al. 2008b). Significant exchange was observed for the backbone amides of R21, S36 and K60, as well as for the sidechain amides of N38, N35 and for W41ε. These residues could not be fit in our previous motional analysis, demonstrating that amide proton chemical exchange needs to be considered in the analysis of protein dynamics in the solid-state, in case D 2 O is employed as a solvent for sample preparation. Due to the intrinsically long 15 N relaxation times in the solid-state, the approach proposed here can expand the range of accessible HDX rates in the intermediate regime that is not accessible so far with exchange quench and MEXICO type experiments.

  14. An Options-Based Analysis of Emerging Market Exchange Rate Expectations: Brazil's Real Plan, 1994-1997

    OpenAIRE

    José Manuel Campa; P.H. Kevin Chang; James F. Refalo

    1999-01-01

    This paper uses currency option data from the BMF, the Commodities and Futures exchange in Sao Paulo, Brazil, to investigate market expectations on the Brazilian Real-U.S. dollar exchange rate from October 1994 through July 1997. Using options data, we derive implied probability density functions (PDF) for expected future exchange rates and thus measures of the credibility of the crawling peg' and target zone ( maxiband') regimes governing the exchange rate. Since we do not impose an exchange...

  15. Resistive Wall Growth Rate Measurements in the Fermilab Recycler

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ainsworth, R. [Fermilab; Adamson, P. [Fermilab; Burov, A. [Fermilab; Kourbanis, I. [Fermilab

    2016-10-05

    Impedance could represent a limitation of running high intensity beams in the Fermilab recycler. With high intensity upgrades foreseen, it is important to quantify the impedance. To do this,studies have been performed measuring the growth rate of presumably the resistive wall instability. The growth rates at varying intensities and chromaticities are shown. The measured growth rates are compared to ones calculated with the resistive wall impedance.

  16. MODELING POPULATION GROWTH RATE IN RUSSIAN CITIES: SPATIAL ASPECTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga S. Balash

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the growth rate of the urban population in Russia according to their size and region. It is revealed that the growth rate of the urban population are not the same for the regions of Russia. An econometric analysis of the data with geo-referenced using geographically weighted regression is conducted. In order to determine the causes of urban growth rate geographic market potential offered by Soo is used.

  17. Sales Growth Rate Forecasting Using Improved PSO and SVM

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Xibin; Wen, Junhao; Alam, Shafiq; Gao, Xiang; Jiang, Zhuo; Zeng, Jun

    2014-01-01

    Accurate forecast of the sales growth rate plays a decisive role in determining the amount of advertising investment. In this study, we present a preclassification and later regression based method optimized by improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO) for sales growth rate forecasting. We use support vector machine (SVM) as a classification model. The nonlinear relationship in sales growth rate forecasting is efficiently represented by SVM, while IPSO is optimizing the training parameters ...

  18. Growth, Mortality and Exploitation Rates of Sarotherodon ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Evans

    (Carlander, 1969; Bagenal, 1978; King, 1996). The b value (2.7) estimated for S. melanotheron in the Dominli Lagoon was within this expected growth constant range. Blay (1998) described the relationship between standard length and body weight of S. melanotheron population in the Benya Lagoon by the equation: BW ...

  19. Larval developmental rate, metabolic rate and future growth performance in Atlantic salmon

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Serrano, Jonathan Vaz; Åberg, Madelene; Gjoen, Hans Magnus

    2009-01-01

    , quantified as time to first feeding, and growth in later stages was demonstrated in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). The observed relationship between future growth and larval developmental rate suggests that sorting larvae by time to first feeding can be a potential tool to optimize feeding strategies...... and growth in commercial rearing of Atlantic salmon. Furthermore, the link between larval standard metabolic rate and developmental rate and future growth is discussed in the present study....

  20. Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myhrvold, Nathan P.

    2016-01-01

    The allometry of maximum somatic growth rate has been used in prior studies to classify the metabolic state of both extant vertebrates and dinosaurs. The most recent such studies are reviewed, and their data is reanalyzed. The results of allometric regressions on growth rate are shown to depend on the choice of independent variable; the typical choice used in prior studies introduces a geometric shear transformation that exaggerates the statistical power of the regressions. The maximum growth rates of extant groups are found to have a great deal of overlap, including between groups with endothermic and ectothermic metabolism. Dinosaur growth rates show similar overlap, matching the rates found for mammals, reptiles and fish. The allometric scaling of growth rate with mass is found to have curvature (on a log-log scale) for many groups, contradicting the prevailing view that growth rate allometry follows a simple power law. Reanalysis shows that no correlation between growth rate and basal metabolic rate (BMR) has been demonstrated. These findings drive a conclusion that growth rate allometry studies to date cannot be used to determine dinosaur metabolism as has been previously argued. PMID:27828977

  1. Dinosaur Metabolism and the Allometry of Maximum Growth Rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myhrvold, Nathan P

    2016-01-01

    The allometry of maximum somatic growth rate has been used in prior studies to classify the metabolic state of both extant vertebrates and dinosaurs. The most recent such studies are reviewed, and their data is reanalyzed. The results of allometric regressions on growth rate are shown to depend on the choice of independent variable; the typical choice used in prior studies introduces a geometric shear transformation that exaggerates the statistical power of the regressions. The maximum growth rates of extant groups are found to have a great deal of overlap, including between groups with endothermic and ectothermic metabolism. Dinosaur growth rates show similar overlap, matching the rates found for mammals, reptiles and fish. The allometric scaling of growth rate with mass is found to have curvature (on a log-log scale) for many groups, contradicting the prevailing view that growth rate allometry follows a simple power law. Reanalysis shows that no correlation between growth rate and basal metabolic rate (BMR) has been demonstrated. These findings drive a conclusion that growth rate allometry studies to date cannot be used to determine dinosaur metabolism as has been previously argued.

  2. PEE-PEO block copolymer exchange rate between micelles is detergent and temperature activated

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schantz, Allen; Saboe, Patrick; Lee, Hee-Young; Sines, Ian; Butler, Paul; Bishop, Kyle; Maranas, Janna; Kumar, Manish

    We examine the kinetics of polymer chain exchange between polymer/detergent micelles, a system relevant to the synthesis of protein-containing biomimetic membranes. Although chain exchange between polymer aggregates in water is too slow to observe, adding detergent allows us to determine chain exchange rates using time-resolved small-angle neutron scattering (TR-SANS). We examine a membrane-protein-relevant, vesicle-forming ultra-short polymer, Poly(ethyl ethylene)20-Poly(ethylene oxide)18 (PEE20-PEO18). PEE20-PEO18 is solubilized in mixed micelles with the membrane-protein-compatible non-ionic detergent octyl- β -D-glucoside (OG). We show that OG activates block copolymer exchange, and obtain rate constants at two detergent concentrations above the CMC (critical micellar concentration) of OG. We find that chain exchange increases two orders of magnitude when temperature increases from 308 to 338 K, and that even a 1 mg/mL increase in OG concentration leads to a noticeable increase in exchange rate. We also calculate the activation energy for chain exchange and find that it is much higher than for lipid exchange. These findings explain the need for high detergent concentration and/or temperature to synthesize densely packed polymer/protein membranes.

  3. Abstraction and exchange contributions to the rate constant of muonium + hydrogen chloride reaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lagana, A.; Ciccarelli, L.

    1987-01-01

    Quantum collinear rate constants for the abstraction and the exchange channels of the Mu + HCl reaction have been calculated in order to have an estimate of the relative efficiency of the two processes in promoting reactivity for this system. (orig.)

  4. Abstraction and exchange contributions to the rate constant of muonium+hydrogen chloride reaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laganà, A.; Ciccarelli, L.

    1987-02-01

    Quantum collinear rate constants for the abstraction and the exchange channels of the Mu+HCl reaction have been calculated in order to have an estimate of the relative efficiency of the two processes in promoting reactivity for this system.

  5. The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Brémond

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. We explore the links between financial factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, international liquidity and the oil price volatility. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation we demonstrate that the “historical coincidence” of oil and financial crises can be explained by the specificities of the relationship between these two commodities. The results of this paper are twofold. The US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of crude oil prices is not constant across time and remains negative from 1989: a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar triggers an increase of crude oil prices. This paper also demonstrates the contagion of financial commodities markets development upon the global economy.

  6. The evolutionary synchronization of the exchange rate system in ASEAN+6

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xiaobing; Hu, Haibo; Wang, Xiaofan

    2010-12-01

    Although there are extensive researches on the behavior of the world currency network, the complexity of the Asian regional currency system is not well understood regardless of its importance. Using daily exchange rates this paper examines exchange rate co-movements in the region before and after the China exchange rate reform. It was found that the correlation between Asian currencies and the US Dollar, the previous regional key currency has become weaker and intra-Asia interactions have increased. Cross sample entropy and cross entropy approaches are also applied to examine the synchrony behavior among the Asian currencies. The study also shows that the Asian exchange rate markets featured are neither stochastic nor efficient. These findings may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of collective behaviors in a regional currency network; they will also lay a theoretical foundation for further policy formulation in Asian currency integration.

  7. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  8. Econometric analysis of exchange rate in Serbia and its influence on agricultural sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pažun Brankica

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper attempts to empirically estimate equilibrium exchange rate level of Serbian dinar. In that purpose reduced form equilibrium real exchange rate approach (ERER is used, developed by IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER. The research was made by using ARDL approach in the single-country analysis. It has been started from dynamic model which has described relation between real effective exchange rate and a set of fundamental variables. Bound test has been provided due to determination of the long-term relationship existence between variables. F-statistics has been used for long-term relationship testing between dependent variable and set of indicators. Since assumptions were met, least squares method was used for coefficient estimation. The results have shown constant dinar's overvaluation over medium term.

  9. Dataset for Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based exposure modeling

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — This dataset provides the city-specific air exchange rate measurements, modeled, literature-based as well as housing characteristics. This dataset is associated with...

  10. Effects of Salinity Stress on Gas Exchange, Growth, and Nutrient Concentrations of Two Citrus Rootstocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Khoshbakht

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available A greenhouse study was undertaken to assess the salt tolerance of two citrus rootstocks, namely, Bakraii (Citrus sp. and Trifoliate orange (Poncirus trifoliata. A factorial experiment through a completely randomized design (CRD with three replications and four levels of salt including 0, 20, 40 and 60 mM NaCl was conducted. After eight weeks of treatment, number of leaves, plant height, leaf area, wet and dry weight of leaf, stem and root, length of root, chlorophyll content, net CO2 assimilation rate (ACO2, stomatal conductance (gs, transpiration (E and water use efficiency (WUE and ion concentrations were measured. Salinity decreased growth and net gas exchange. Trifoliate orange showed the most decrease in growth indices and net gas exchange compared with Bakraii. The ability to limit the transfer of sodium to leaves in low levels of salt was observed in Trifoliate orange, but this ability was not observed in high levels of salt. Results showed that accumulation of chloride in leaves and roots were less in Bakraii compared to the Trifoliate orange. The lower Cl- concentration in leaves of Bakraii than trifoliate orange suggests that the salinity tolerance of Bakraii is associated with less transport of Cl- to the leaves. Salinity increased K+ and decreased Mg2+ and Ca2+ concentrations in leaves of both rootstocks. It is proposed that salt stress effect on plant physiological processes such as changes in plant growth, Cl- and Na+ toxicity, and mineral distribution, decreases chlorophyll content and reduces the photosynthetic efficiency of these citrus species.

  11. Impact of Macroeconomic Policies on Poverty and Unemployment Rates in Nigeria, Implications for Attaining Inclusive Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Nwosa

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper examined the effect of macroeconomic policies on unemployment and poverty rates in Nigeria from 1980 to 2013 with implication to achieving inclusive growth. The inability of macroeconomic policies in addressing the rising issues unemployment and poverty rates in Nigeria despite the impressive economic growth experience over the last decades has increasingly called for the need for the pursuance of inclusive growth to address the social issues of unemployment and poverty rate. Previous studies have not considered the extent to which macroeconomic policies affects unemployment and poverty rate in Nigeria, and the implication of this relationship to the attainment of inclusive growth in Nigeria. The study adopts the Ordinary Least Square (OLS technique. The study observed that among macroeconomic policy variables only exchange rate significantly influenced unemployment rate while only fiscal policy significantly influenced and poverty rate. This implies that present macroeconomic policies in Nigeria do not guarantee the attainment of inclusive growth in Nigeria. The contribution of the paper is that to achieve inclusive growth that guarantees high employment and reduced poverty rate, there is the need for a re-examination of macroeconomic policy management in Nigeria.

  12. Could Changes in Black Market Exchange Rates be Expansionary in LDCs?

    OpenAIRE

    Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee; Ilir Miteza; Gour Goswami

    2008-01-01

    Many of the previous studies that tried to assess the contractionay or expansionary effects of depreciations or devaluations in less developed countries (LDCs) used official exchange rate data and concluded that devaluations are contractionary in LDCs. However, due to capital controls, there is a black market for foreign exchange in many of the LDCs. In this paper when we use black market rates over the period 1975-1998 from 29 LDCs in a panel model, we find that devaluations are expansionary...

  13. Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Some preliminary evidence of long-horizon predictability

    OpenAIRE

    Dong, Wei; Nam, Deokwoo

    2011-01-01

    When prices are sticky, movements in the nominal exchange rate have a direct impact on international relative prices. A relative price misalignment would trigger an adjustment in consumption and employment, and may help to predict future movements in the exchange rate. Although purchasing-power-parity fundamentals, in general, have only weak predictability, currency misalignment may be indicated by price differentials for some goods, which could then have predictive power for subsequent re-ev...

  14. Real exchange-rates, co-integration and purchasing power parity - Irish experience in the EMS

    OpenAIRE

    Thom, R

    1989-01-01

    Dickey-Fuller and Co-Integration techniques are used to test the hypothesis that co-movements in Irish nominal exchange rates and relative prices are consistent with the implications of Purchasing Power Parity. The data reject PPP between Ireland and the US. Results from Irish/UK and Irish/German data are less decisive against the possibility that linear combinations of the nominal exchange rate and corresponding relative prices are stationary series.

  15. NON-PRICE PROMOTION IMPACTS ON COTTON AND SOYBEANS EXPORTS UNDER EXCHANGE RATE LINKED SUBSIDIES

    OpenAIRE

    Paudel, Laxmi; Adhikari, Murali; Houston, Jack E.; Kinnucan, Henry W.

    2003-01-01

    Issue of exchange rate-linked subsidies for non-price export promotion has recently emerged as an area of interest among marketing researchers because of fluctuating strength of US dollars and position of US agricultural goods in export markets. One solution to mitigate these impacts was to link the federal export promotion subsidies with the changing value of US dollars. In the study, an equilibrium displacement framework was developed to analyze the effectiveness of exchange rate-linked sub...

  16. The Impact of Exchange Rate on Poland’s Trade Flows

    OpenAIRE

    Katarzyna Twarowska

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate on Poland’s foreign trade, especially on bilateral trade flows between Poland and the Euro area, which is its major trading partner. The research verifies the theoretical concepts that explain how the exchange rate influences the trade turnover. The empirical analysis was preceded by a theoretical basis of the problem. Data used in this study covers the period from 2004 to 2013. The theoretical and empirical analysis confirm ...

  17. A Fix-Price Trade Model with Perfect Capital Mobility : Fixed versus Flexible Exchange Rates

    OpenAIRE

    Cuddington, John T.

    1983-01-01

    This paper extends the two-sector analysis of macroeconomic policies in temporary equilibrium with quantity rationing to include both money and internationally traded bonds as financial assets. By eliminating the assumption that money is the only asset, an acceptable treatment of flexible exchange rate regimes becomes possible. The efficacy of Monetary, fiscal, and wage policies is compared under alternative non-market-clearing regimes and exchange rate systems. Noteworthy is the dramatic dif...

  18. The Monetary Model of Exchange Rate: Evidence from the Philippines Using ARDL Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Sovannroeun SAMRETH; Dara LONG

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we re-examine the validity of both short and long run monetary models of exchange rate for the case of the Philippines by using new approach called Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to cointegration. From our analysis, some findings are obtained. First, there are robust short and long run relationships between variables in the monetary exchange rate model. Second, the stability of the estimated parameters is confirmed by CUSUM and CUMSUQ stability tests. Third, the Purchasi...

  19. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, Melbourne (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Prasad, Arti [Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University (Australia)

    2008-09-15

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  20. Exchange rate pass-through in Switzerland: Evidence from vector autoregressions

    OpenAIRE

    Jonas Stulz

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates the pass-through of exchange rate and import price shocks to different aggregated prices in Switzerland. The baseline analysis is carried out with recursively identified vector autoregressive (VAR) models. The data set comprises monthly observations, and pass-through effects are quantified by means of impulse response functions. Evidence shows that the exchange rate pass-through to import prices is substantial (although incomplete), but only moderate to total consumer ...

  1. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Prasad, Arti

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  2. Smuggling, non-fundamental uncertainty, and parallel market exchange rate volatility

    OpenAIRE

    Richard Clay Barnett

    2003-01-01

    We explore a model where smuggling and a parallel currency market arise, owing to government restrictions that prevent agents from legally holding foreign exchange. Despite such restrictions, agents are able to diversify their savings, holding both domestic and parallel foreign cash, basing their portfolio allocation on current and prospective parallel exchange rates. We attribute movements in parallel rates to non-fundamental uncertainty. The model generates equilibria with both positive and...

  3. Explaining the Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Hungary: Simulations with the NIGEM Model

    OpenAIRE

    Zoltán M. Jakab; Mihály András Kovács

    2003-01-01

    This paper explores the major determinants of the exchange rate pass-through to CPI. The simulations were performed with the Bank's estimated Hungarian block linked to the NIGEM model of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR). The modelling framework offers some insight into the role of different markets in the price-exchange rate relationship. The paper gives an analysis of the relative importance of expectations, goods and labour market parameters. Our results show t...

  4. Determination of the Electron Self-Exchange Rates of Blue Copper Proteins by Super-WEFT NMR Spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ma, Lixin; Philipp, Else Astrid; Led, Jens J.

    2001-01-01

    Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR......Anabaena variabilis plastocyanin, blue copper proteins, electron self-exchange rates, electron transfer, super-WEFT NMR...

  5. Rapid and accurate processing method for amide proton exchange rate measurement in proteins

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koskela, Harri; Heikkinen, Outi; Kilpelaeinen, Ilkka; Heikkinen, Sami

    2007-01-01

    Exchange between protein backbone amide hydrogen and water gives relevant information about solvent accessibility and protein secondary structure stability. NMR spectroscopy provides a convenient tool to study these dynamic processes with saturation transfer experiments. Processing of this type of NMR spectra has traditionally required peak integration followed by exponential fitting, which can be tedious with large data sets. We propose here a computer-aided method that applies inverse Laplace transform in the exchange rate measurement. With this approach, the determination of exchange rates can be automated, and reliable results can be acquired rapidly without a need for manual processing

  6. FINANCIAL AND LEGAL CONSIDERATIONS OF THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ON BANK EXTERNAL TRADING OPERATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ignat Papazov

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The term "currency" has different meanings but is usually defined as any means of payment that is not in local currency units. The ratio between the foreign currency and local currency units results into exchange rate. When arranging payment transactions abroad, local entities - natural and legal persons must exchange their national currency in advance for the currency of the country in which they are due or in another currency commonly accepted as an international payment. Under this regime, the national currency is quoted in relation to another currency, that is exchange rate.

  7. Do fish growth rates correlate with PCB body burdens?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew L. Rypel; David R.. Bayne

    2010-01-01

    We evaluated whether growth rates of six fish species correlated with PCB concentrations in a moderately-to-heavily polluted freshwater ecosystem. Using a large dataset (n ¼ 984 individuals), and after accounting for growth effects related to fish age, habitat, sex, and lipids, growth correlated significantly, but positively with lipid-corrected PCB concentrations for...

  8. The performance of one belt and one road exchange rate: Based on improved singular spectrum analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Lin; Guo, Kun

    2017-10-01

    ;One Belt and One Road; strategy in China is on push of foreign trade openness at northwest, southwest and northeast, absorption of the excess capacity and new support for economic increase. However, the fluctuation in RMB exchange rate with the countries along the road is unstable so related Chinese enterprises will face high risk of exchange rate. Precise explanation or prediction for exchange rate has been the challengeable hop point in the international finance. This paper decomposed the One Belt One Road Exchange Rate Index (OBORR) and the RMB Effective Exchange Rate Index (CNYX) into trend term, market fluctuation term and noise term using improved singular spectrum analysis (SSA). It turns out that the increasing velocity of OBORR is greater than that of CNYX in the long term, and there is dynamic lead-lag structure in the medium term. In the short term, the fluctuation range and frequency of OBORR are greater than those of CNYX, which means there will be more exchange rate risks in One Belt and One Road countries.

  9. The Role of Private Information in Short-term Fluctuations of Won/Dollar Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haesik Park

    1999-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we have examined the short-run movement of the won/dollar exchange rate using information obtained from the inter-bank market in Korea. First, we constructed the hourly measure of excess demand for dollar and used it as a proxy for the trading pattern of market participants. To construct this time series, we relied on the bid and ask won/dollar exchange rates collected on the two-minute interval. We then estimated the structural VAR model consisting of the actually observed won/dollar exchange rate and the proxied trading pattern of market participants to see if private information, as opposed to public information, is relevant for explaining the hourly movement of the won/dollar exchange rate. Private information is found to account for more 30% of hourly variations of the won/dollar exchange rate. Next, we constructed the trading pattern of market participants on a daily basis using the same data set employed to build the hourly measure. We then examined whether private information is useful for predicting the daily won/dollar exchange rate movement. We found that the forecast model using both private and public information reduces out-of-sample forecast errors of an alternative model relying only on public information by 20~25%. Also, the out-of-sample forecast of the model using both private and public information is found to be more accurate than the random walk model.

  10. Stationarity test with a direct test for heteroskedasticity in exchange rate forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khin, Aye Aye; Chau, Wong Hong; Seong, Lim Chee; Bin, Raymond Ling Leh; Teng, Kevin Low Lock

    2017-05-01

    Global economic has been decreasing in the recent years, manifested by the greater exchange rates volatility on international commodity market. This study attempts to analyze some prominent exchange rate forecasting models on Malaysian commodity trading: univariate ARIMA, ARCH and GARCH models in conjunction with stationarity test on residual diagnosis direct testing of heteroskedasticity. All forecasting models utilized the monthly data from 1990 to 2015. Given a total of 312 observations, the data used to forecast both short-term and long-term exchange rate. The forecasting power statistics suggested that the forecasting performance of ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model is more efficient than the ARCH (1) and GARCH (1, 1) models. For ex-post forecast, exchange rate was increased from RM 3.50 per USD in January 2015 to RM 4.47 per USD in December 2015 based on the baseline data. For short-term ex-ante forecast, the analysis results indicate a decrease in exchange rate on 2016 June (RM 4.27 per USD) as compared with 2015 December. A more appropriate forecasting method of exchange rate is vital to aid the decision-making process and planning on the sustainable commodities' production in the world economy.

  11. Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments: in search for a WTO solution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera Thorstensen

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO - World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, U.S. and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of "misalignment tariffication"; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section.

  12. Forecasting of currency exchange rates using an adaptive ARMA model with differential evolution based training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minakhi Rout

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available To alleviate the limitations of statistical based methods of forecasting of exchange rates, soft and evolutionary computing based techniques have been introduced in the literature. To further the research in this direction this paper proposes a simple but promising hybrid prediction model by suitably combining an adaptive autoregressive moving average (ARMA architecture and differential evolution (DE based training of its feed-forward and feed-back parameters. Simple statistical features are extracted for each exchange rate using a sliding window of past data and are employed as input to the prediction model for training its internal coefficients using DE optimization strategy. The prediction efficiency is validated using past exchange rates not used for training purpose. Simulation results using real life data are presented for three different exchange rates for one–fifteen months’ ahead predictions. The results of the developed model are compared with other four competitive methods such as ARMA-particle swarm optimization (PSO, ARMA-cat swarm optimization (CSO, ARMA-bacterial foraging optimization (BFO and ARMA-forward backward least mean square (FBLMS. The derivative based ARMA-FBLMS forecasting model exhibits worst prediction performance of the exchange rates. Comparisons of different performance measures including the training time of the all three evolutionary computing based models demonstrate that the proposed ARMA-DE exchange rate prediction model possesses superior short and long range prediction potentiality compared to others.

  13. The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Iran’s Raisin Export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Exchange rate volatility is one of the effective and ambiguous factors in agricultural product export. Considering the importance of agricultural trade to avoid single-product economy, the main aim of this study was to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the Raisin export of Iran during the years1959-2011. For this purpose, exchange rate volatility index was estimated using Moving Average Standard Deviation (MASD. Then, the impact of exchange rate volatility on the value of Raisin export was examined using Johansen's and Juselius's cointegration method and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM.The results showed that in the long-term and short-term there is a significant relationship between Raisin exports and its main variables (weighted average of Gross income of importers, Wholesale Prices, real exchange rate, Value-added of agricultural sector; as according to the theory it has negative relationship with exchange rate volatility. The error correction coefficient sentence ECM (-1 significantly and its sign was negative as expected. The value of this coefficient is equal to the -0/20 and indicates that about 20 percent of Raisin exports imbalance from its long-term value, after of a period will be Elapse.

  14. Are electricity prices affected by the US dollar to Euro exchange rate? The Spanish case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Munoz, M. Pilar; Dickey, David A.

    2009-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the relationships between Spanish electricity spot prices and the US dollar/Euro (USD/Euro) exchange rate during the period 2005-2007, taking into account the study of the association between dollar and oil prices, in order to better understand the evolution of the former over time. The first finding in this study is that Spanish electricity spots prices, the USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices are cointegrated; therefore there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between the three variables. Short-run relationships have been detected between oil prices and Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate in the sense that Spanish electricity prices and USD/Euro exchange rate are affected by oil prices in the short run. There is a transmission of volatility between USD/Euro exchange rate and oil prices to Spanish electricity prices; so although Spanish electricity prices are not affected in level by the movements of USD/Euro exchange rate, they are in volatility. In this kind of scenario the conclusions confirm that for countries so dependent on external causes as Spain, one possible solution for guarantying the energy security would be the promotion of the renewable energies. Therefore we cannot ignore the impact in the internal expenses of the cost of installation and generation of green energies so there must be a balance between the increase in renewables and the reasonable market price of the electricity. (author)

  15. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  16. The Real Exchange Rate, Foreign Aid and Macroeconomic Transmission Mechanisms in Tanzania and Ghana

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Juselius, Katarina; Reshid, Abdulaziz Abrar; Tarp, Finn

    empirical investigation. The focus is now on the effect of aid when allowing external and nominal facors to play a role in the maccroeconomic transmission mechanism. We conclude that aid played a signi…cantly positive - but very different - role in the two countries. Due in part to generous aid infl......A recent study of 36 Sub Saharan African countries found a positive impact of aid in the absolute majority of these countries. However, for Tanzania and Ghana, two major aid recipients, aid did not seem to have been equally bene…cial. This paper singles out these two countries for a more detailed......‡ows Tanzania experienced positive investment and GDP growth from the late 1960s to 2007. But, until the mid-1980s, the impact of aid on growth was well below its potential as the large in‡ows of aid facilitated a serious overappreciation of the real exchange rate. In Ghana, declining aid in the 1970s...

  17. Modeling the growth rates of tetragonal lysozyme crystals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Meirong; Nadarajah, Arunan; Pusey, Marc L.

    1995-11-01

    Although the faceted growth of tetragonal lysozyme crystals is known to occur by 2D nucleation and dislocation-led growth, the measured growth rates do not follow model predictions based on these mechanisms. One possible reason for this deviation is that these models ignore the highly aggregated state of lysozyme in supersaturated solutions. In this study a growth mechanism for tetragonal lysozyme crystals involving aggregation reactions leading to the formation of the growth unit, mass transport of the growth unit to the crystal interface and faceted crystal growth by growth unit addition, is proposed. The distribution of aggregates in lysozyme nutrient solutions were determined from the equilibrium aggregation reactions and comparisons were made with growth rates calculated from the model based on the proposed mechanism and the measured growth rate data. The results indicated than an octamer corresponding to the tetragonal crystal unit cell was the most likely growth unit for the process. Remarkably good fits were obtained with this model to the measured growth rate data for three sets of pH and salt concentrations, suggesting the validity of the proposed mechanism. The values of the kinetic coefficient for the step velocity was in the range for small molecule crystal growth and the heats of reaction compared well with that obtained from lysozyme solubility data. The results presented here suggest that the inorganic and protein crystal growth processes are quite similar in many ways. Lysozyme crystal growth differs primarily due to growth by an aggregate growth unit and in the effect of nutrient solution conditions on the protein aggregation process.

  18. Effect of mercury on algal growth rates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hannan, P.J.; Patouillet, C.

    1972-01-01

    In experiments with one freshwater (Chlorella pyrenoidosa) and three marine organisms (Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Cyclotella nana, and Chaetoceras gavestonensis), mercury was more toxic than the other metals tested (silver, cadmium, lead, and copper); and its toxicity is comparatively irreversible. Growth was monitored by changes in fluorescence of the cultures over a 3-day test period. The toxicity of the mercury varied inversely with the concentrations of nutrients present. Preliminary experiments indicate that mercury in the form of mercuric chloride is more toxic than as dimethylmercury. 12 references, 3 figures, 1 table.

  19. Climate indices strongly influence old-growth forest carbon exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonia Wharton; Matthias Falk

    2016-01-01

    We present a decade and a half (1998–2013) of carbon dioxide fluxes from an old-growth stand in the American Pacific Northwest to identify ecosystem-level responses to Pacific teleconnection patterns, including the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study provides the longest, continuous record of old-growth eddy flux data to date from one of the longest running...

  20. Is growth rate more important than survival and reproduction in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The local Djallonké sheep in Ghana is characterized by slow growth and low reproductive rates, but is resistant to most diseases and parasites (survival traits). In an attempt to improve the performance of the local sheep, the Ministry of Food and Agriculture has chosen growth rate as the breeding objective. This is being ...

  1. Preliminary observation of genital secretions, growth rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cane rats are large terrestial rodents which have the potential to increase animal protein intake. There is paucity of information on the genital secretions and growth rate of caged cane rats. This study observed the genital secretions, growth rate, feeds, feeding and the behaviour of caged cane rats. When animals adjusted to ...

  2. Postnatal Growth Rates of Hummingbirds : Review and New Records

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Freymann, Bernd P.; Schuchmann, Karl-Ludwig

    2008-01-01

    We review the published information on postnatal growth rates of hummingbirds (13 species), and report previously unpublished records for nine additional trochilid species. The allometric relationship based on the log(10)-transformed data of K (logistic growth rate constant) and body mass has a

  3. THE IMPACT OF INFLATION RATES AND US DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES ON INDONESIAN STOCK MARKET INDEX RETURN VOLATILITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riko Hendrawan

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper studied the impact of inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates in Indonesian stock marketreturn volatility in the period of 2002-2012. Daily data of stock market return, inflation rates and US Dollarexchange rates were used to estimate the daily volatility of the stock return. The data of stock market price,inflation rates and US Dollar exchange rates were taken from Yahoo Finance, Indonesia statistics bureau andcentral bank of Indonesia, respectively. The result showed that both inflation rates and US Dollar exchangerates did not have a significant impact on the Indonesian stock market return volatility. Inflation rates contributed0.03% change in daily stock market return volatility whereas a 1% appreciation of Rupiah contributedto a 0.0000001% change in daily stock market return volatility. This research finding was different from theresult in Nigeria where Yaya’s & Shittu’s (2010 research had the same variables. Inflation rates and USDollar exchange rates were to examine the impact on Nigeria stock market index return volatility.

  4. Multifractal analysis of managed and independent float exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stošić, Darko; Stošić, Dusan; Stošić, Tatijana; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2015-06-01

    We investigate multifractal properties of daily price changes in currency rates using the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We analyze managed and independent floating currency rates in eight countries, and determine the changes in multifractal spectrum when transitioning between the two regimes. We find that after the transition from managed to independent float regime the changes in multifractal spectrum (position of maximum and width) indicate an increase in market efficiency. The observed changes are more pronounced for developed countries that have a well established trading market. After shuffling the series, we find that the multifractality is due to both probability density function and long term correlations for managed float regime, while for independent float regime multifractality is in most cases caused by broad probability density function.

  5. China’s Exchange Rate Policy: A Double Edged Sword

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-01

    recent years, the central banks of Japan and the United States have engaged in policies of currency devaluation. Although much attention is paid to...market.10 These four characteristics allowed the East Asian countries of Japan , Taiwan, and South Korea to develop at exponential rates for decades. This...is temporary, countries can inflate and deflate indefinitely. If disequilibrium is non-temporary, and macroeconomic forces are continually driving

  6. Effects of Drought and Rewetting on Growth and Gas Exchange of Minor European Broadleaved Tree Species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jörg Kunz

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Widespread and economically important European tree species such as Norway spruce, Scots pine, and European beech are projected to be negatively affected by the increasing intensity and frequency of dry and hot conditions in a future climate. Hence, there is an increasing need to investigate the suitability of presumably more drought tolerant species to ensure future ecological stability, biodiversity, and productivity of forests. Based on their distribution patterns and climatic envelopes, the rare, minor broadleaved tree species Sorbus torminalis ((L. CRANTZ, S. domestica (L., Acer campestre (L., and A. platanoides (L. are assumed to be drought tolerant, however, there is only limited experimental basis to support that notion. This study aimed at quantifying growth and gas exchange of seedlings of these species during drought conditions, and their capacity to recover following drought. For that purpose, they were compared to the common companion species Quercus petraea ((MATTUSCHKA LIEBL. and Fagus sylvatica (L.. Here, potted seedlings of these species were exposed to water limitation followed by rewetting cycles in a greenhouse experiment. Photosynthesis and transpiration rates, stomatal conductance as well as root and shoot growth rates indicated a high drought resistance of A. campestre and A. platanoides. Sorbus domestica showed a marked ability to recover after drought stress. Therefore, we conclude that these minor tree species have the potential to enrich forests on drought-prone sites. Results from this pot experiment need to be complemented by field studies, in which the drought response of the species is not influenced by restrictions to root development.

  7. Examination of the effects of public spending and trade policy on real exchange rate in Cameroon

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victalice Ngimanang ACHAMOH

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available The study adopts the inter-temporal model of Rodríguez (1989 and Edward (1989 extended in Elbadawi and Soto (1997 to empirically examine the effect of public expenditure and trade openness on the real exchange rate using Cameroon data from 1977 to 2010. After exploring some issues on exchange rate and reviewing the relevant literature, the study employs residual based-cointegration technique. All the variables were stationary at level form or first differences. Public spending significantly appreciates the real exchange likewise the trade openness variable in the longrun. The results of the study suggests that appreciation of real exchange rate could be prevented by contracting public spending or adopting restrictive trade measures especially in the long run.

  8. Gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice as affected by plant regulators

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita de Cássia Félix Alvarez

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate gas exchange rates, plant height, yield components, and productivity of upland rice, as affected by type and application time of plant growth regulators. A randomized block design, in a 4x2 factorial arrangement, with four replicates was used. Treatments consisted of three growth regulators (mepiquat chloride, trinexapac-ethyl, and paclobutrazol, besides a control treatment applied at two different phenological stages: early tillering or panicle primordial differentiation. The experiment was performed under sprinkler-irrigated field conditions. Net CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance, plant transpiration, and water-use efficiency were measured four times in Primavera upland rice cultivar, between booting and milky grain phenophases. Gas exchange rates were neither influenced by growth regulators nor by application time. There was, however, interaction between these factors on the other variables. Application of trinexapac-ethyl at both tillering and differentiation stages reduced plant height and negatively affected yield components and rice productivity. However, paclobutrazol and mepiquat chloride applied at tillering, reduced plant height without affecting rice yield. Mepiquat chloride acted as a growth stimulator when applied at the differentiation stage, and significantly increased plant height, panicle number, and grain yield of upland rice.

  9. A Study of the Effect of Inflation and Exchange Rate on Stock Market Returns in Ghana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles Kwofie

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The study examined the effect of exchange rate and inflation on stock market returns in Ghana using monthly inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the Bank of Ghana and monthly market returns computed from the GSE all-share index from January 2000 to December 2013. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL cointegration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model were used for examining this effect. The ARDL and its corresponding error correction model were used in establishing the long- and short-run relationship between the Ghana Stock Exchange (GSE market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The result of the study showed that there exists a significant long-run relationship between GSE market returns and inflation. However, no significant short-run relationship between them existed. The result also showed a significant long- and short-run relationship between GSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for long memory and it was observed that such property did exist in these variables, making it a desirable feature of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.

  10. High infection control rate and function after routine one-stage exchange for chronically infected TKA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenny, Jean-Yves; Barbe, Bruno; Gaudias, Jeannot; Boeri, Cyril; Argenson, Jean-Noël

    2013-01-01

    Many surgeons consider two-stage exchange the gold standard for treating chronic infection after TKA. One-stage exchange is an alternative for infection control and might provide better knee function, but the rates of infection control and levels of function are unclear. We asked whether a one-stage exchange protocol would lead to infection control rates and knee function similar to those after two-stage exchange. We followed all 47 patients with chronically infected TKAs treated with one-stage exchange between July 2004 and February 2007. We monitored for recurrence of infection and obtained Knee Society Scores. We followed patients a minimum of 3 years or until death or infection recurrence. Three of the 47 patients (6%) experienced a persistence or recurrence of the index infection with the same pathogen isolated. Three patients (6%) had control of the index infection but between 6 and 17 months experienced an infection with another pathogen. The 3-year survival rates were 87% for being free of any infection and 91% for being healed of the index infection. Twenty-five of the 45 patients (56%) had a Knee Society Score of more than 150 points. While routine one-stage exchange was not associated with a higher rate of infection recurrence failure, knee function was not improved compared to that of historical patients having two-stage exchange. One stage-exchange may be a reasonable alternative in chronically infected TKA as a more convenient approach for patients without the risks of two operations and hospitalizations and for reducing costs. The ideal one stage-exchange candidate should be identified in future studies.

  11. Allometries of maximum growth rate versus body mass at maximum growth indicate that non-avian dinosaurs had growth rates typical of fast growing ectothermic sauropsids.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Werner

    Full Text Available We tested if growth rates of recent taxa are unequivocally separated between endotherms and ectotherms, and compared these to dinosaurian growth rates. We therefore performed linear regression analyses on the log-transformed maximum growth rate against log-transformed body mass at maximum growth for extant altricial birds, precocial birds, eutherians, marsupials, reptiles, fishes and dinosaurs. Regression models of precocial birds (and fishes strongly differed from Case's study (1978, which is often used to compare dinosaurian growth rates to those of extant vertebrates. For all taxonomic groups, the slope of 0.75 expected from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology was statistically supported. To compare growth rates between taxonomic groups we therefore used regressions with this fixed slope and group-specific intercepts. On average, maximum growth rates of ectotherms were about 10 (reptiles to 20 (fishes times (in comparison to mammals or even 45 (reptiles to 100 (fishes times (in comparison to birds lower than in endotherms. While on average all taxa were clearly separated from each other, individual growth rates overlapped between several taxa and even between endotherms and ectotherms. Dinosaurs had growth rates intermediate between similar sized/scaled-up reptiles and mammals, but a much lower rate than scaled-up birds. All dinosaurian growth rates were within the range of extant reptiles and mammals, and were lower than those of birds. Under the assumption that growth rate and metabolic rate are indeed linked, our results suggest two alternative interpretations. Compared to other sauropsids, the growth rates of studied dinosaurs clearly indicate that they had an ectothermic rather than an endothermic metabolic rate. Compared to other vertebrate growth rates, the overall high variability in growth rates of extant groups and the high overlap between individual growth rates of endothermic and ectothermic extant species make it impossible to rule

  12. Allometries of maximum growth rate versus body mass at maximum growth indicate that non-avian dinosaurs had growth rates typical of fast growing ectothermic sauropsids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werner, Jan; Griebeler, Eva Maria

    2014-01-01

    We tested if growth rates of recent taxa are unequivocally separated between endotherms and ectotherms, and compared these to dinosaurian growth rates. We therefore performed linear regression analyses on the log-transformed maximum growth rate against log-transformed body mass at maximum growth for extant altricial birds, precocial birds, eutherians, marsupials, reptiles, fishes and dinosaurs. Regression models of precocial birds (and fishes) strongly differed from Case's study (1978), which is often used to compare dinosaurian growth rates to those of extant vertebrates. For all taxonomic groups, the slope of 0.75 expected from the Metabolic Theory of Ecology was statistically supported. To compare growth rates between taxonomic groups we therefore used regressions with this fixed slope and group-specific intercepts. On average, maximum growth rates of ectotherms were about 10 (reptiles) to 20 (fishes) times (in comparison to mammals) or even 45 (reptiles) to 100 (fishes) times (in comparison to birds) lower than in endotherms. While on average all taxa were clearly separated from each other, individual growth rates overlapped between several taxa and even between endotherms and ectotherms. Dinosaurs had growth rates intermediate between similar sized/scaled-up reptiles and mammals, but a much lower rate than scaled-up birds. All dinosaurian growth rates were within the range of extant reptiles and mammals, and were lower than those of birds. Under the assumption that growth rate and metabolic rate are indeed linked, our results suggest two alternative interpretations. Compared to other sauropsids, the growth rates of studied dinosaurs clearly indicate that they had an ectothermic rather than an endothermic metabolic rate. Compared to other vertebrate growth rates, the overall high variability in growth rates of extant groups and the high overlap between individual growth rates of endothermic and ectothermic extant species make it impossible to rule out either of

  13. Growth rate and rupture rate of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: a population approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jou, Liang-Der; Mawad, Michel E

    2009-01-01

    Background Understanding aneurysm growth rate allows us to predict not only the current rupture risk, but also accumulated rupture risk in the future. However, determining growth rate of unruptured intracranial aneurysms often requires follow-up of patients for a long period of time so that significant growth can be observed and measured. We investigate a relationship between growth rate and rupture rate and develop a theoretical model that can predict average behavior of unruptured intracranial aneurysms based on existing clinical data. Methods A mathematical model is developed that links growth rate and rupture rate. This model assumes a stable aneurysm size distribution so the number of aneurysm ruptures is balanced by the growth of aneurysms. Annual growth rates and growth profiles are calculated from a hypothetical size distribution and data from a previous clinical study. Results Our model predicts a growth rate of 0.34–1.63 mm/yr for three different growth models when the rupture rate at 10 mm is 1%. The growth rate is 0.56–0.65 mm/yr if annual rupture rate averaged over all aneurysm sizes is assumed to be 2%. The peak of aneurysm size distribution coincides with a period of slow growth between 5 mm and 8 mm. Conclusion This mathematical model can be used to predict aneurysm growth rate, and the results are consistent with previous clinical studies. Predictions from both hypothetical and clinical cases agree very well. This model explains why some aneurysms may grow into a stable size and remain so without rupture. PMID:19534830

  14. An empirical study of exchange rate pass-through in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jin Xiaowen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to estimate exchange rate pass-through in China and investigate its relationship with monetary policy. Linear and VAR models are applied to analyze robustness. The linear model shows that, over the long run, a 1% appreciation of NEER causes a decline in the CPI inflation rate of 0.132% and PPI inflation rate of 0.495%. The VAR model supports the results of the linear model, suggesting a fairly low CPI pass-through and relatively higher PPI pass-through. Furthermore, this paper finds that, with the fixed exchange rate regime, CPI pass-through remains higher. The exchange rate regimes influence on CPI pass through, combined with the fact that appreciation diminishes inflation, suggests that the Chinese government could pursue a more flexible exchange rate policy. In addition, reasons for low exchange rate pass-through for CPI are analyzed. The analysis considers price control, basket and weight of Chinese price indices, distribution cost, and imported and non-tradable share of inputs.

  15. Monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear model of random exchanges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apenko, S M

    2013-02-01

    We present a proof of the monotonic entropy growth for a nonlinear discrete-time model of a random market. This model, based on binary collisions, also may be viewed as a particular case of Ulam's redistribution of energy problem. We represent each step of this dynamics as a combination of two processes. The first one is a linear energy-conserving evolution of the two-particle distribution, for which the entropy growth can be easily verified. The original nonlinear process is actually a result of a specific "coarse graining" of this linear evolution, when after the collision one variable is integrated away. This coarse graining is of the same type as the real space renormalization group transformation and leads to an additional entropy growth. The combination of these two factors produces the required result which is obtained only by means of information theory inequalities.

  16. Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ziesemer, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Endogenous growth theory has produced formulas for steady-state growth rates of income per capita which are linear in the growth rate of the population. Depending on the details of the models, slopes and intercepts are positive, zero or negative. Empirical tests have taken over the assumption of

  17. Modeling gas exchange in a closed plant growth chamber

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornett, J. D.; Hendrix, J. E.; Wheeler, R. M.; Ross, C. W.; Sadeh, W. Z.

    1994-01-01

    Fluid transport models for fluxes of water vapor and CO2 have been developed for one crop of wheat and three crops of soybean grown in a closed plant growth chamber. Correspondence among these fluxes is discussed. Maximum fluxes of gases are provided for engineering design requirements of fluid recycling equipment in growth chambers. Furthermore, to investigate the feasibility of generalized crop models, dimensionless representations of water vapor fluxes are presented. The feasibility of such generalized models and the need for additional data are discussed.

  18. Can we estimate bacterial growth rates from ribosomal RNA content?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kemp, P.F.

    1995-12-31

    Several studies have demonstrated a strong relationship between the quantity of RNA in bacterial cells and their growth rate under laboratory conditions. It may be possible to use this relationship to provide information on the activity of natural bacterial communities, and in particular on growth rate. However, if this approach is to provide reliably interpretable information, the relationship between RNA content and growth rate must be well-understood. In particular, a requisite of such applications is that the relationship must be universal among bacteria, or alternately that the relationship can be determined and measured for specific bacterial taxa. The RNA-growth rate relationship has not been used to evaluate bacterial growth in field studies, although RNA content has been measured in single cells and in bulk extracts of field samples taken from coastal environments. These measurements have been treated as probable indicators of bacterial activity, but have not yet been interpreted as estimators of growth rate. The primary obstacle to such interpretations is a lack of information on biological and environmental factors that affect the RNA-growth rate relationship. In this paper, the available data on the RNA-growth rate relationship in bacteria will be reviewed, including hypotheses regarding the regulation of RNA synthesis and degradation as a function of growth rate and environmental factors; i.e. the basic mechanisms for maintaining RNA content in proportion to growth rate. An assessment of the published laboratory and field data, the current status of this research area, and some of the remaining questions will be presented.

  19. Beyond growth rate 0.6: What drives Corynebacterium glutamicum to higher growth rates in defined medium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unthan, Simon; Grünberger, Alexander; van Ooyen, Jan; Gätgens, Jochem; Heinrich, Johanna; Paczia, Nicole; Wiechert, Wolfgang; Kohlheyer, Dietrich; Noack, Stephan

    2014-02-01

    In a former study we showed that Corynebacterium glutamicum grows much faster in defined CGXII glucose medium when growth was initiated in highly diluted environments [Grünberger et al. (2013b) Biotechnol Bioeng]. Here we studied the batch growth of C. glutamicum in CGXII at a comparable low starting biomass concentration of OD ≈ 0.005 in more detail. During bioreactor cultivations a bi-phasic growth behavior with changing growth rates was observed. Initially the culture grew with μˆ=0.61±0.02 h-1 before the growth rate dropped to μˆ=0.46±0.02 h-1. We were able to confirm the elevated growth rate for C. glutamicum in CGXII and showed for the first time a growth rate beyond 0.6 in lab-scale bioreactor cultivations on defined medium. Advanced growth studies combining well-designed bioreactor and microfluidic single-cell cultivations (MSCC) with quantitative transcriptomics, metabolomics and integrative in silico analysis revealed protocatechuic acid as a hidden co-substrate for accelerated growth within CGXII. The presented approach proves the general applicability of MSCC to investigate and validate the effect of single medium components on microorganism growth during cultivation in liquid media, and therefore might be of interest for any kind of basic growth study. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  20. Cross sections and rate coefficients for charge exchange reactions of protons with hydrocarbon molecules

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janev, R.K.; Kato, T.; Wang, J.G.

    2001-05-01

    The available experimental and theoretical cross section data on charge exchange processes in collisions of protons with hydrocarbon molecules have been collected and critically assessed. Using well established scaling relationships for the charge exchange cross sections at low and high collision energies, as well as the known rate coefficients for these reactions in the thermal energy region, a complete cross section database is constructed for proton-C x H y charge exchange reactions from thermal energies up to several hundreds keV for all C x H y molecules with x=1, 2, 3 and 1 ≤ y ≤ 2x + 2. Rate coefficients for these charge exchange reactions have also been calculated in the temperature range from 0.1 eV to 20 keV. (author)

  1. The maximum growth rate of life on Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corkrey, Ross; McMeekin, Tom A.; Bowman, John P.; Olley, June; Ratkowsky, David

    2018-01-01

    Life on Earth spans a range of temperatures and exhibits biological growth rates that are temperature dependent. While the observation that growth rates are temperature dependent is well known, we have recently shown that the statistical distribution of specific growth rates for life on Earth is a function of temperature (Corkrey et al., 2016). The maximum rates of growth of all life have a distinct limit, even when grown under optimal conditions, and which vary predictably with temperature. We term this distribution of growth rates the biokinetic spectrum for temperature (BKST). The BKST possibly arises from a trade-off between catalytic activity and stability of enzymes involved in a rate-limiting Master Reaction System (MRS) within the cell. We develop a method to extrapolate quantile curves for the BKST to obtain the posterior probability of the maximum rate of growth of any form of life on Earth. The maximum rate curve conforms to the observed data except below 0°C and above 100°C where the predicted value may be positively biased. The deviation below 0°C may arise from the bulk properties of water, while the degradation of biomolecules may be important above 100°C. The BKST has potential application in astrobiology by providing an estimate of the maximum possible growth rate attainable by terrestrial life and perhaps life elsewhere. We suggest that the area under the maximum growth rate curve and the peak rate may be useful characteristics in considerations of habitability. The BKST can serve as a diagnostic for unusual life, such as second biogenesis or non-terrestrial life. Since the MRS must have been heavily conserved the BKST may contain evolutionary relics. The BKST can serve as a signature summarizing the nature of life in environments beyond Earth, or to characterize species arising from a second biogenesis on Earth.

  2. Effect of a long chain aliphatic alkohols on growth. gas exchange and assimilate parlitioning in radish plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbyszek K. Blamowski

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available In pot experiments the influence of long chain aliphatic alcohols (hexacosanol - HEXA, octacosanol - OCTA and triacontanol - TRIA, which were used in concentration O.00l mg·dm3 , on growth, assimilate partitioning and gas exchange of radish plants cv. "Krakowianka" and "Sopel lodu" were studied. The received results showed that triacontanol was characterized by higher physiological activity than remaining alcohols. TRIA significantly increased yield of mass, as well as it changed the pattern of distribution of assimilates in plants. Under its influence the rate of mass of leaves to mass of storage organs decreased as well as the share of mass of leaves in the total mass of both plant cultivars. TRIA stimulated the rate of net photosynthesis (Pn, howewer, it did not influence the other detennined gas exchange parameters: substomatal concentration of CO2 (ci, stomatal conductance for water vapour (gs and rate of transpiration (Tr. Remaining alcohols (HEXA and OCFA did not any influence on growth of plants and their gas exchange but only on distribution of biomass.

  3. Balassa-Samuelson Effect in Won/Dollar and Won/Yen Exchange Rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donghwan Oh

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines, using various models including a non-linear one, that the Balassa-Samuelson (BS effect can account for the persistence of deviations from PPP in the long-run movements of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rates. In test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using the generalized Johansen' cointegration method, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and the productivity variables of two countries. And in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates other fundamentals such as cumulative current account balance, foreign exchange reserve, terms of trade as well as productivity differentials, using a behavioral equilibrium exchange rate approach, it is found that a cointegration relationship exists between each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate and all of these fundamentals. However, the plus sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity differentials variable, which means that domestic productivity improvement produces increase in each of won/dollar and won/yen real exchange rate is not coincident with the result that the BS effect expects theoretically. Finally, in test for PPP hypothesis that incorporates the BS effect, using a non-linear STAR model, it is found that the adjustment process in case of won/dollar real exchange rate from the long-run equilibrium level can be adequately explained by a non-linear LSTAR model. But, the evidence of diagnostic statistics, which shows the existence of autocorrelation of the residuals in most of lags, might suggest the inadequacy of LSTAR model specification.

  4. IMPACT OF THE INFLATION ON THE EXCHANGE RATE AND ON THE AVERAGE SALARY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Consuela I. NECȘULESCU

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Inflation is considered to be one of the negative phenomena of national economy. In this article we intend to analyze the link between the inflation rate and some important macroeconomic variables. The objective of the research is the demonstration of a causal connection between the inflation rate and an exchange rate lei/euro, respectively between the inflation rate and the average nominal wage, these manifests using econometric methods.

  5. Chaoticity in the time evolution of foreign currency exchange rates in Turkey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cakar, O.; Aybar, O. O.; Hacinliyan, A. S.; Kusbeyzi, I.

    Tools from chaos theory that have found recent use in analysing financial markets have been applied to the US Dollar and Euro buying and selling rates against the Turkish currency. The reason for choosing the foreign exchange rate in this analysis is the fact that foreign currency is an indicator of not only the globalization of economy but also savings and investment. In order to test the globality assumption and to ascertain the degree of involvement of local conditions in Turkey, the Euro and US dollar exchange rates have been subjected to the same analysis.

  6. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.       JEL Codes: E58, F31Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rates, Monetary

  7. Hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates in tritium, hydrogen and deuterium mixed gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uda, Tatsuhiko

    1992-01-01

    Hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates in H 2 +T 2 , D 2 +T 2 and H 2 +D 2 +T 2 mixed gases, as induced by tritium decay and beta radiation, were experimentally measured by laser Raman spectrometry. Initially a glass cell was filled with T 2 gas to a pressure of 30-40 kPa, and an equivalent partial pressure of H 2 and/or D 2 was added. The first-order hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates were 5.54x10 -2 h -1 for H 2 +T 2 mixed gas and 4.76x10 -2 h -1 for D 2 +T 2 . The actual HT producing rate was nearly equivalent to the rate of DT, but the reverse reaction rate of HT was faster than that of DT. The exchange reaction rates between H, D and T showed the isotope effect, HD>HT>DT. The hydrogen isotope exchange reaction rates observed were about twenty times larger than ion formation rates by beta radiation. This result suggests that a free radical chain reaction in hydrogen isotopes is occurring. (orig.)

  8. THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE EXCHANGE RATE AND THE DIRECT FOREIGN INVESTMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Halmi Mirela

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Since the fall of the monetary system from Bretton Woods, based on a system of fixed rates, numerous theoretical and empirical articles have emerged through which the volatility of the exchange rate and the commercial influxes was analyzed and the identification of specific connections regarding the transmission of the effects of the modification of the exchange rapport of a currency in economy was tried. The general idea from these works start from the uncertainties regarding the evolution of a currency in comparison to another and their effects on the goods and services balance of a state. Important works from the domain are evaluated. The authors are renowned researchers in the area of international finances and some of them are part of the personnel of the most important international finance-banking institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the Bank of International Settlements. The studies regarding the relation between the exchange rates and the direct foreign investments are contradictory: some do not find a significant influence of the exchange rate and other demonstrate that there is a strong connection between the two variables. If a connection between the two variables is established, it remains to be settled if the connection is direct or reversed. The Granger causality test identified the characteristics of the relation between the direct foreign investments and the exchange rate. The conclusions of the research mark out the complex nature of the relation between the two variables, the results being extremely heterogeneous from one country to another.

  9. Cross-correlations between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Xinsheng; Li, Jianfeng; Zhou, Ying; Qian, Yubo

    2017-11-01

    This paper employs multifractal detrended analysis (MF-DFA) and multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA) to study cross-correlation behaviors between China's RMB exchange rate market and four international commodity markets, using a comprehensive set of data covering the period from 22 July 2005 to 15 March 2016. Our empirical results from MF-DFA indicate that the RMB exchange rate is the most inefficient among the 4 selected markets. The results from quantitative analysis have testified the existence of cross-correlations and the result from MF-DCCA have further confirmed a strong multifractal behavior between RMB exchange rate and international commodity markets. We also demonstrate that the recent financial crisis has significant impact on the cross-correlated behavior. Through the rolling window analysis, we find that the RMB exchange rates and international commodity prices are anti-persistent cross-correlated. The main sources of multifractality in the cross-correlations are long-range correlations between RMB exchange rate and the aggregate commodity, energy and metals index.

  10. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  11. Econometric Analysis of Determinants of Real Effective Exchange Rate in Nigeria (1960-2015

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ibrahim Waheed

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using the vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2, nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment program dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price is out of the government control, the effect of shocks due to the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimized by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus needing to review the system and bringing out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

  12. Exchange rate regimes and macroeconomic instabilities in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yaya Camara Seydou

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This article addresses macroeconomic instabilities according to exchange rate regimes in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA. Based on International Monetary Fund's exchange rate regimes de facto classification, the global sample, SSA, is first divided into two subsamples, which are countries within CFA franc zone (ZCFA and those outside CFA franc zone (HZCFA, and then into four categories, which are the Western Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU, the Central African Economic and Monetary Community, the countries CFA franc zone with fix exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FIX, and the countries outside CFA franc zone with flexible exchange rate regimes(HZCFA-FLEX. By applying advanced statistical and econometric methods upon internal and external macroeconomic equilibrium conditions, we show that the inflation, the GDP (or the output and the real exchange rate (RER are very volatile in SSA. However, we found out that they are more volatile in the group HZCFA comparatively to the group ZCFA. We also found out that they are higher in the group HZCFA-FIX than the group HZCFA-FLEX. Moreover, we found out that a high instability of the inflation is combined with those of the output and the RER.

  13. On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

  14. The adverse effect of real effective exchange rate change on trade balance in European transition countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selena Begović

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Most European transition countries have fixed or highly managed flexible exchange rate regimes. This exchange rate rigidity is sometimes argued to worsen the trade balance by keeping the currency overvalued. However, there is no unambiguous evidence that currency depreciation/devaluation positively affects trade balance and leads towards the adjustment, even in the short-run. Therefore, we examine the effect of real effective exchange rate (hereafter REER on trade balance in European transition economies over the period 2000-2015. By using fixed effect model for static and generalised method of moments for dynamic estimation, we find that there is an adverse effect of the REER on trade balance in European transition countries over the period 2000-2015. Namely, depreciation of REER deteriorates trade balance in European transition countries, which could be explained by high import dependence and low export capacity. This implies that policymakers in European transition countries should not use exchange rate policy to improve trade balance. This is important in the light of their accession towards European economic and monetary integration, implying that these countries should focus more on using fiscal, rather than monetary (and exchange rate, policy to adjust trade balance, which is one of the required real convergence towards the EU standards.

  15. A study on the effects of exchange rate and foreign policies on Iranians dates export

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leila Khalighi

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this research was studying the impact of exchange rate on date export as one of the most important and greatest foreign currency income earned horticultural products in agriculture sector in Iran. Selected time period in this study was chosen between 1991 and 2011. For this purpose, ordinary least squares (OLS method has used to estimate the relationships between the value of date export and the variables taken from stationary tests. Library research method has used for the analysis. In this regard, required data have collected from various scientific and research resources. The results indicated that, exchange rate is a crucial factor for dates export and also for exporters. In addition, other factors specially government policies have been placed in export model. In this field, short-term outsourcing foreign policy has decreased the export value. Results also showed that, applying exchange rate unification policy without an appropriate exchange rate to encourage exporters has negative impact on dates export. Therefore, by applying exchange rate stabilization policy, according to inflation in the country, the potential exporters’ income has reduced and production costs have increased alternately.

  16. The study of RMB exchange rate complex networks based on fluctuation mode

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Can-Zhong; Lin, Ji-Nan; Zheng, Xu-Zhou; Liu, Xiao-Feng

    2015-10-01

    In the paper, we research on the characteristics of RMB exchange rate time series fluctuation with methods of symbolization and coarse gaining. First, based on fluctuation features of RMB exchange rate, we define the first type of fluctuation mode as one specific foreign currency against RMB in four days' fluctuating situations, and the second type as four different foreign currencies against RMB in one day's fluctuating situation. With the transforming method, we construct the unique-currency and multi-currency complex networks. Further, through analyzing the topological features including out-degree, betweenness centrality and clustering coefficient of fluctuation-mode complex networks, we find that the out-degree distribution of both types of fluctuation mode basically follows power-law distributions with exponents between 1 and 2. The further analysis reveals that the out-degree and the clustering coefficient generally obey the approximated negative correlation. With this result, we confirm previous observations showing that the RMB exchange rate exhibits a characteristic of long-range memory. Finally, we analyze the most probable transmission route of fluctuation modes, and provide probability prediction matrix. The transmission route for RMB exchange rate fluctuation modes exhibits the characteristics of partially closed loop, repeat and reversibility, which lays a solid foundation for predicting RMB exchange rate fluctuation patterns with large volume of data.

  17. The Effects of Exchange Rate Market in the Economy of Kosova

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Argjira Kadrijaj Dushi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From a conducted centralized economy, Kosovo‟s economy became a free market after 1999. This made the economy of Kosovo to face a lot of challenges. One of them and still a topic not studied among Kosovo economists is the Kosovo currency. Kosovo is not yet a member of EU but since 2002 is using euro currency. What are the advantages and disadvantages of using euro currency for the economy of Kosovo? This was not questionable in 2002, because Kosovo was still in the first steps of creating a financial system. But, today the importance of exchange rates in economy is crucial as a result of the internationalization of businesses, the constant increase of world trade with the national one and the rapid change of money transfer technology. In this research, through quantitative and qualitative methods is analyzed the development of exchange rate market in Kosovo and the effects of exchange rates movements in Kosovo economy, its GDP and inflation and in consumer price index. The research will point out the importance of exchange rates as an interest variable for some of Kosovo businesses and its effects in the transition economy of Kosovo which has not been exposed to exchange rates risk on macroeconomic variables.

  18. Microtubules Growth Rate Alteration in Human Endothelial Cells

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irina B. Alieva

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available To understand how microtubules contribute to the dynamic reorganization of the endothelial cell (EC cytoskeleton, we established an EC model expressing EB3-GFP, a protein that marks microtubule plus-ends. Using this model, we were able to measure microtubule growth rate at the centrosome region and near the cell periphery of a single human EC and in the EC monolayer. We demonstrate that the majority of microtubules in EC are dynamic, the growth rate of their plus-ends is highest in the internal cytoplasm, in the region of the centrosome. Growth rate of microtubule plus-ends decreases from the cell center toward the periphery. Our data suggest the existing mechanism(s of local regulation of microtubule plus-ends growth in EC. Microtubule growth rate in the internal cytoplasm of EC in the monolayer is lower than that of single EC suggesting the regulatory effect of cell-cell contacts. Centrosomal microtubule growth rate distribution in single EC indicated the presence of two subpopulations of microtubules with “normal” (similar to those in monolayer EC and “fast” (three times as much growth rates. Our results indicate functional interactions between cell-cell contacts and microtubules.

  19. Replica Exchange Simulations of the Thermodynamics of Aβ Fibril Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takeda, Takako; Klimov, Dmitri K.

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Replica exchange molecular dynamics and an all-atom implicit solvent model are used to probe the thermodynamics of deposition of Alzheimer's Aβ monomers on preformed amyloid fibrils. Consistent with the experiments, two deposition stages have been identified. The docking stage occurs over a wide temperature range, starting with the formation of the first peptide-fibril interactions at 500 K. Docking is completed when a peptide fully adsorbs on the fibril edge at the temperature of 380 K. The docking transition appears to be continuous, and occurs without free energy barriers or intermediates. During docking, incoming Aβ monomer adopts a disordered structure on the fibril edge. The locking stage occurs at the temperature of ≈360 K and is characterized by the rugged free energy landscape. Locking takes place when incoming Aβ peptide forms a parallel β-sheet structure on the fibril edge. Because the β-sheets formed by locked Aβ peptides are typically off-registry, the structure of the locked phase differs from the structure of the fibril interior. The study also reports that binding affinities of two distinct fibril edges with respect to incoming Aβ peptides are different. The peptides bound to the concave edge have significantly lower free energy compared to those bound on the convex edge. Comparison with the available experimental data is discussed. PMID:19167295

  20. Gas exchange patterns and water loss rates in the Table Mountain cockroach, Aptera fusca (Blattodea: Blaberidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groenewald, Berlizé; Bazelet, Corinna S; Potter, C Paige; Terblanche, John S

    2013-10-15

    The importance of metabolic rate and/or spiracle modulation for saving respiratory water is contentious. One major explanation for gas exchange pattern variation in terrestrial insects is to effect a respiratory water loss (RWL) saving. To test this, we measured the rates of CO2 and H2O release ( and , respectively) in a previously unstudied, mesic cockroach, Aptera fusca, and compared gas exchange and water loss parameters among the major gas exchange patterns (continuous, cyclic, discontinuous gas exchange) at a range of temperatures. Mean , and per unit did not differ among the gas exchange patterns at all temperatures (P>0.09). There was no significant association between temperature and gas exchange pattern type (P=0.63). Percentage of RWL (relative to total water loss) was typically low (9.79±1.84%) and did not differ significantly among gas exchange patterns at 15°C (P=0.26). The method of estimation had a large impact on the percentage of RWL, and of the three techniques investigated (traditional, regression and hyperoxic switch), the traditional method generally performed best. In many respects, A. fusca has typical gas exchange for what might be expected from other insects studied to date (e.g. , , RWL and cuticular water loss). However, we found for A. fusca that expressed as a function of metabolic rate was significantly higher than the expected consensus relationship for insects, suggesting it is under considerable pressure to save water. Despite this, we found no consistent evidence supporting the conclusion that transitions in pattern type yield reductions in RWL in this mesic cockroach.

  1. Growth rates of important East African montane forest trees, with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These trees showed growth rates at least twice as high as those of the primary species. Juniperus procera was found to be the fastest growing species in the cedar forest, underlining its success in forming dense stands after a fire. Only young Podocarpus latifolius showed a similar fast growth. Olea europaea ssp. cuspidata, ...

  2. Growth rates of alien Oreochromis niloticus and indigenous ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth rates of indigenous Oreochromis mortimeri and alien Oreochromis niloticus from Lake Kariba were estimated from samples collected in 1997–2000, 2003–2005 and 2010–2011. Growth zones on scales and otoliths of O. niloticus and on the otoliths and opercula of O. mortimeri were deposited annually.

  3. Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... expansionary monetary policy in Cameroon. This work therefore recommends guided expansionary monetary policy as an instrument for growth and development in Cameroon in particular and the CEMAC zone in general. Key words: Dynamic, Money Supply, Interest Rates, Economic growth, Co-integration and Inflation.

  4. Survival and Growth Rates of Tilapia zillii and Oreochromis urolepis ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Survival and Growth Rates of Tilapia zillii and Oreochromis urolepis urolepis in Full Strength Sea Water for Mariculture Development. Alex nehemia, Alex Nehemiah, Aviti John Mmochi, Matern Mtolera ...

  5. The difference of growth rate distributions between sales and profits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Atushi; Fujimoto, Shouji; Tomoyose, Masashi

    2010-04-01

    Using numerical simulations, the authors exhibit the difference between two types of the growth rate distributions, the one of which is observed in both positive and negative data such as profits, and the other of which is in non-negative data such as sales. In the simulation, firstly the Langevin equation generates both positive and negative variables, the growth rate distributions of which are linear functions of the logarithmic growth rate. By superposing the variables not to be negative, we find that the growth rate distributions of the non-negative variables have wider tails than line shape on a log-log scale. At the same time, two types of Non-Gibrat's Laws in the middle scale range are also confirmed as observed in real economic data.

  6. Modeling exchange rate volatility in CEEC countries: Impact of global financial and European sovereign debt crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miletić Siniša

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study is to envisage the impact of global financial (GFC and European sovereign debt crisis (ESDC on foreign exchange markets of emerg- ing countries in Central and Eastern Europe CEEC countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, poland and Serbia. The daily returns of exchange rates on Czech Republic koruna (CZK, Hungarian forint (HuF, Romanian lea (RoL, polish zloty (pLZ and Serbian dinar (RSD, all against the Euro are analyzed during the period from 3rd January 2000 to15th April 2013, in respect. To examine the impact of global financial crisis and European sovereign debt crisis, dummy variables were adopted. overall results imply that global financial crisis has no impact on exchange rate returns in selected CEEC countries, while European sovereign debt crisis inf luencing in depreciation of polish zloty by 8% and Roma- nian lea by 6%. obtained results by our calculation, imply that global financial crisis increased enhanced volatility on exchange rate returns of Czech koruna, Romanian lea and polish zloty. Moreover, results of empirical analysis imply that this impact has the strongest inf luence in volatility on exchange rate returns of polish zloty.

  7. Inflation, exchange rate and efficacy of monetary policy in Nigeria: The empirical evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BigBen Chukwuma Ogbonna

    2016-01-01

    1986 – 2008. Estimates from a vector auto regression model (VAR of key macroeconomic variables demonstrate the weak link between money supply and inflation in the both time horizons, which suggests that the hypothesis that money supply is not an effective policy instrument for management of inflationary developments cannot be rejected for Nigeria. The results further suggest that in both time horizons, exchange rate has been identified as a singular most promising macroeconomic fundamental for both internal and external sectors adjustments. However, the deregulation of the domestic economy as occasioned by SAP has significantly diluted the efficacy of exchange rate as a monetary policy instrument for the management of Nigeria’s aggregate money stock and trade balance developments. These notwithstanding, the Central Bank of Nigeria can continue to play a stabilizing role in the economy through the continuation of prudent monetary policies and frequent interventions in exchange rate management to smooth out shocks.

  8. Exchange Rate Exposure Management: An Empirical Study into the Strategies of Industrial Companies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    1999-01-01

    This cross-case study of eight blue-chip industrial companies extends previous studies of why exchange rate exposure management is done the way it is. While hedging should not be pursued unless it creates value, the operational objectives differ among companies. Avoiding financial distress...... that major reasons behind this focus are the dynamic development of the competitive environment and the ability of the specific company to counter unfavorable changes in exchange rates by the exercise of real options (e.g. reallocation of production resources). As such, the study shows the in adequacy...... in taking a partial and static financial approach when making theoretical recommendations for managing exchange rate exposures in industrial companies....

  9. FDI Inflows, Price and Exchange Rate Volatility: New Empirical Evidence from Latin America

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Dal Bianco

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the impact of price and real exchange rate volatility on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI inflows in a panel of 10 Latin American and Caribbean countries, observed between 1990 and 2012. Both price and exchange rate volatility series are estimated through the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model (GARCH. Our results obtained, employing the Fixed Effects estimator, confirm the theory of hysteresis and option value, in so far as a statistically significant negative effect of exchange rate volatility on FDI is found. Price volatility, instead, turns out to be positive but insignificant. Moreover, we show that human capital and trade openness are key for attracting foreign capital. From the policy perspective, our analysis suggests the importance of stabilization policies as well as the policy of government credibility in promoting trade openness and human capital formation.

  10. EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH, IMPORT PRICES AND INFLATION UNDER STRUCTURAL BREAKS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arintoko Arintoko

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available This research estimates the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT into import prices by applying an extension of the basic model of ERPT on Indonesia. It estimates models of cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM, with and without structural breaks. It uses the techniques of Zivot-Andrews and of Gregory-Hansen to test for structural breaks and cointegration with the structural breaks, respectively. The results show that with the control variables, inflation affects import prices and lower the pass-through for short term, in a condition of free floating exchange rate. In the short term, with the inclusion of structural breaks, significant inflation affects import prices and lowers the ERPT coefficient.  Keywords:    Exchange rate pass-through, inflation, structural breaks, cointegration, error-correction mechanismJEL classification numbers: C22, C32, E31, F41

  11. Time-series analysis of multiple foreign exchange rates using time-dependent pattern entropy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishizaki, Ryuji; Inoue, Masayoshi

    2018-01-01

    Time-dependent pattern entropy is a method that reduces variations to binary symbolic dynamics and considers the pattern of symbols in a sliding temporal window. We use this method to analyze the instability of daily variations in multiple foreign exchange rates. The time-dependent pattern entropy of 7 foreign exchange rates (AUD/USD, CAD/USD, CHF/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, JPY/USD, and NZD/USD) was found to be high in the long period after the Lehman shock, and be low in the long period after Mar 2012. We compared the correlation matrix between exchange rates in periods of high and low of the time-dependent pattern entropy.

  12. What do we know about real exchange rate non-linearities?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kruse, Robinson; Frömmel, Michael; Menkhoff, Lukas

    correctly and misspecified non-linear alternatives is analyzed by means of a Monte Carlo study. The chosen parametrization is obtained by real-life exchange rates. The test against ESTAR has low power against all alternatives whereas the proposed unit root test against a Markov Switching autoregressive......This research points to the serious problem of potentially misspecified alternative hypotheses when testing for unit roots in real exchange rates. We apply a popular unit root test against nonlinear ESTAR and develop a Markov Switching unit root test. The empirical power of these tests against...... model performs clearly better. An empirical application of these tests suggests that real exchange rates may indeed be explained by Markov-Switching dynamics....

  13. Correlation analysis of the Korean stock market: Revisited to consider the influence of foreign exchange rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jo, Sang Kyun; Kim, Min Jae; Lim, Kyuseong; Kim, Soo Yong

    2018-02-01

    We investigated the effect of foreign exchange rate in a correlation analysis of the Korean stock market using both random matrix theory and minimum spanning tree. We collected data sets which were divided into two types of stock price, the original stock price in Korean Won and the price converted into US dollars at contemporary foreign exchange rates. Comparing the random matrix theory based on the two different prices, a few particular sectors exhibited substantial differences while other sectors changed little. The particular sectors were closely related to economic circumstances and the influence of foreign financial markets during that period. The method introduced in this paper offers a way to pinpoint the effect of exchange rate on an emerging stock market.

  14. Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

  15. Seasonal variations in ectotherm growth rates: Quantifying growth as an intermittent non steady state compensatory process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guarini, J.-M.; Chauvaud, Laurent; Cloern, J.E.; Clavier, J.; Coston-Guarini, J.; Patry, Y.

    2011-01-01

    Generally, growth rates of living organisms are considered to be at steady state, varying only under environmental forcing factors. For example, these rates may be described as a function of light for plants or organic food resources for animals and these could be regulated (or not) by temperature or other conditions. But, what are the consequences for an individual's growth (and also for the population growth) if growth rate variations are themselves dynamic and not steady state? For organisms presenting phases of dormancy or long periods of stress, this is a crucial question. A dynamic perspective for quantifying short-term growth was explored using the daily growth record of the scallop Pecten maximus (L.). This species is a good biological model for ectotherm growth because the shell records growth striae daily. Independently, a generic mathematical function representing the dynamics of mean daily growth rate (MDGR) was implemented to simulate a diverse set of growth patterns. Once the function was calibrated with the striae patterns, the growth rate dynamics appeared as a forced damped oscillation during the growth period having a basic periodicity during two transitory phases (mean duration 43. days) and appearing at both growth start and growth end. This phase is most likely due to the internal dynamics of energy transfer within the organism rather than to external forcing factors. After growth restart, the transitory regime represents successive phases of over-growth and regulation. This pattern corresponds to a typical representation of compensatory growth, which from an evolutionary perspective can be interpreted as an adaptive strategy to coping with a fluctuating environment. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  16. Growth rates of breeder reactor fuel. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ott, K.O.

    1979-01-01

    During the contract period, a consistent formalism for the definition of the growth rates (and thus the doubling time) of breeder reactor fuel has been developed. This formalism was then extended to symbiotic operation of breeder and converter reactors. Further, an estimation prescription for the growth rate has been developed which is based upon the breeding worth factors. The characteristics of this definition have been investigated, which led to an additional integral concept, the breeding bonus

  17. Generator exchange is associated with an increased rate of Sprint Fidelis lead failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovelock, Joshua D; Patel, Ayesha; Mengistu, Andenet; Hoskins, Michael; El-Chami, Mikhael; Lloyd, Michael S; Leon, Angel; DeLurgio, David; Langberg, Jonathan J

    2012-10-01

    The Medtronic Sprint Fidelis defibrillator lead is at an increased risk for failure and was recalled in October 2007. Approximately 268,000 leads were implanted, and more than 100,000 patients still have active Fidelis leads. A number of studies have examined the rate and clinical predictors of lead failure, but none has addressed the effect of an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator generator exchange on subsequent lead failure. Although the manufacturer asserts that "Sprint Fidelis performance after device change-out is similar to lead performance without device change-out," published data are lacking. To assess the effect of implantable cardioverter-defibrillator generator exchange on the rate of Fidelis lead failure. A chart review was conducted in patients who underwent implantation of a Fidelis lead. Patients with a functioning Fidelis lead at generator exchange were compared with controls with leads implanted for a comparable amount of time not undergoing ICD replacement. A total of 1366 patients received a Fidelis lead prior to the recall, of which 479 were still actively followed. Seventy-two patients with a functioning lead underwent generator exchange without lead replacement. Following generator replacement, 15 leads failed. Sixty percent of the Fidelis leads failed within 3 months. Generator exchange increased the rate of lead failure compared with matched controls (20.8% vs 2.54%; P exchange is associated with a higher than expected rate of Fidelis lead failure, often within 3 months. The risk-benefit ratio of Fidelis lead replacement at the time of generator exchange may be greater than appreciated. Copyright © 2012 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Investigation the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Export of Agricultural Products

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Jamalipour

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Agricultural commodity export is a main attribute of developing countries and it is the basic force of development, however, developing countries have faced domestic and international instability in their markets and monetary and fiscal policies and these instabilities create a difficult condition for most of producers and exporters. Volatility in exchange market is one of the most important factor and vital concentrate for international trade especially agricultural commodity export. Because of this concern many studies have been conducted in this filed; (Aristotelous, 2001; Chen, 2009 and Sabuhoi and Piri, 2009 .Many of these studies has stated that exchange rate fluctuation has a negative impact on aggregated agricultural export; however, none of them has been focused on the effects of exchange rate fluctuation on exported value of important commodities in long run and short run. In recent years, exchange rate fluctuation has been raised about 6 percent since 2007 to 2010 and it seemed that this phenomenon has a negative impact on agricultural commodity export in Iran. To test this hypothesis exported value of three important commodity (date, orange and grape and exchange rate volatility since 1970 to 2013 have been used. Material and Methods: In order to examine the relation between real exchange rate volatility and export values of date, orange and grapes, first GARCH method has been used to draw out exchange rate volatility; then, Panel unite root test has been used to check the level of integration. Since real exchange rate is not heterogeneous for different cross sections Levi-Lin and Chow unit root test has been used for this variable and IPS test has been applied to export value. Pederoni co-integration test has been used to check the integration between these variables. Finally, FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square and DOLS (Dynamic Ordinary Least Square methods have been used to estimate long run and short run

  19. The Influence of International Parity on the Exchange Rate: Purchasing Power Parity and International Fisher Effect

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana Mionel

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available This article assesses the impact of the inflationand interest rates on the exchange rates.The analysis tests the relation between the inflation rate and the exchange rate by applying thePurchasing Power Parity Theory, while the relationbetween the interest rate and the inflation rate istested by applying the International Fisher EffectTheory. In order to test the Purchasing Power Paritythe study takes into account the period of time between 1990 – 2009, and the following countries –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Japan and China. As for testing the InternationalFisher Effect Theory the period of time is the same, 1990 – 2009, but a few countries are different –the USA, Germany, the UK, Switzerland, Canada, Australia and New Zeeland. Thus, both theoriesanalyse the USA as home country.

  20. Protein thermodynamics can be predicted directly from biological growth rates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ross Corkrey

    Full Text Available Life on Earth is capable of growing from temperatures well below freezing to above the boiling point of water, with some organisms preferring cooler and others hotter conditions. The growth rate of each organism ultimately depends on its intracellular chemical reactions. Here we show that a thermodynamic model based on a single, rate-limiting, enzyme-catalysed reaction accurately describes population growth rates in 230 diverse strains of unicellular and multicellular organisms. Collectively these represent all three domains of life, ranging from psychrophilic to hyperthermophilic, and including the highest temperature so far observed for growth (122 °C. The results provide credible estimates of thermodynamic properties of proteins and obtain, purely from organism intrinsic growth rate data, relationships between parameters previously identified experimentally, thus bridging a gap between biochemistry and whole organism biology. We find that growth rates of both unicellular and multicellular life forms can be described by the same temperature dependence model. The model results provide strong support for a single highly-conserved reaction present in the last universal common ancestor (LUCA. This is remarkable in that it means that the growth rate dependence on temperature of unicellular and multicellular life forms that evolved over geological time spans can be explained by the same model.

  1. The influence of impurities on the growth rate of calcite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, H. J.

    1984-05-01

    The effects of 34 different additives on the growth rate of calcite were investigated. An initial growth rate of about one crystal monolayer (3 × 10 -8 cm) per minute was adjusted at a constant supersaturation which was maintained by a control circuit. Then the impurity was added step by step and the reduction of the growth rate was measured. The impurity concentration necessary to reduce the initial growth rate by a certain percentage increased in the order Fe 2+, ATP, P 3O 5-10, P 2O 4-7, (PO 3) 6-6, Zn 2+, ADP, Ce 3+, Pb 2+, carbamyl phosphate, Fe 3+, PO 3-4, Co 2+, Mn 2+, Be 2+, β-glycerophosphate, Ni 2+, Cd 2+, "Tris", phenylphosphate, chondroitine sulphate, Ba 2+, citrate, AMP, Sr 2+, tricarballylate, taurine, SO 2-4, Mg 2+ by 4 orders of magnitude. The most effective additives halved the initial growth rate in concentrations of 2 × 10 -8 mol/1. For Fe 2+ the halving concentration was nearly proportional to the initial rate. The mechanism of inhibition by adsorption of the impurities at growth sites (kinks) is discussed.

  2. Effects of respiratory rate and tidal volume on gas exchange in total liquid ventilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bull, Joseph L; Tredici, Stefano; Fujioka, Hideki; Komori, Eisaku; Grotberg, James B; Hirschl, Ronald B

    2009-01-01

    Using a rabbit model of total liquid ventilation (TLV), and in a corresponding theoretical model, we compared nine tidal volume-respiratory rate combinations to identify a ventilator strategy to maximize gas exchange, while avoiding choked flow, during TLV. Nine different ventilation strategies were tested in each animal (n = 12): low [LR = 2.5 breath/min (bpm)], medium (MR = 5 bpm), or high (HR = 7.5 bpm) respiratory rates were combined with a low (LV = 10 ml/kg), medium (MV = 15 ml/kg), or high (HV = 20 ml/kg) tidal volumes. Blood gases and partial pressures, perfluorocarbon gas content, and airway pressures were measured for each combination. Choked flow occurred in all high respiratory rate-high volume animals, 71% of high respiratory rate-medium volume (HRMV) animals, and 50% of medium respiratory rate-high volume (MRHV) animals but in no other combinations. Medium respiratory rate-medium volume (MRMV) resulted in the highest gas exchange of the combinations that did not induce choke. The HRMV and MRHV animals that did not choke had similar or higher gas exchange than MRMV. The theory predicted this behavior, along with spatial and temporal variations in alveolar gas partial pressures. Of the combinations that did not induce choked flow, MRMV provided the highest gas exchange. Alveolar gas transport is diffusion dominated and rapid during gas ventilation but is convection dominated and slow during TLV. Consequently, the usual alveolar gas equation is not applicable for TLV.

  3. Essays in applied macroeconomics: Asymmetric price adjustment, exchange rate and treatment effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Jingping

    This dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the possible asymmetric response of gasoline prices to crude oil price changes using an error correction model with GARCH errors. Recent papers have looked at this issue. Some of these papers estimate a form of error correction model, but none of them accounts for autoregressive heteroskedasticity in estimation and testing for asymmetry and none of them takes the response of crude oil price into consideration. We find that time-varying volatility of gasoline price disturbances is an important feature of the data, and when we allow for asymmetric GARCH errors and investigate the system wide impulse response function, we find evidence of asymmetric adjustment to crude oil price changes in weekly retail gasoline prices. Chapter III discusses the relationship between fiscal deficit and exchange rate. Economic theory predicts that fiscal deficits can significantly affect real exchange rate movements, but existing empirical evidence reports only a weak impact of fiscal deficits on exchange rates. Based on US dollar-based real exchange rates in G5 countries and a flexible varying coefficient model, we show that the previously documented weak relationship between fiscal deficits and exchange rates may be the result of additive specifications, and that the relationship is stronger if we allow fiscal deficits to impact real exchange rates non-additively as well as nonlinearly. We find that the speed of exchange rate adjustment toward equilibrium depends on the state of the fiscal deficit; a fiscal contraction in the US can lead to less persistence in the deviation of exchange rates from fundamentals, and faster mean reversion to the equilibrium. Chapter IV proposes a kernel method to deal with the nonparametric regression model with only discrete covariates as regressors. This new approach is based on recently developed least squares cross-validation kernel smoothing method. It can not only automatically smooth

  4. Rate equation modelling of the optically pumped spin-exchange source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stenger, J.; Rith, K.

    1995-01-01

    Sources for spin polarized hydrogen or deuterium, polarized via spin-exchange of a laser optically pumped alkali metal, can be modelled by rate equations. The rate equations for this type of source, operated either with hydrogen or deuterium, are given explicitly with the intention of providing a useful tool for further source optimization and understanding. Laser optical pumping of alkali metal, spin-exchange collisions of hydrogen or deuterium atoms with each other and with alkali metal atoms are included, as well as depolarization due to flow and wall collisions. (orig.)

  5. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari; Nor Ermawati Hussain; Hafizah Abdul Rahim

    2013-01-01

    The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are inf...

  6. Is It Possible to Replicate the Exchange Rate Volatility Behavior Using Dynamic Strategies?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Henrique Barbedo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The implied volatility is certainly an interesting indicator to help get a sense of the market, because it represents the amount of expected volatility the market is pricing. In over-the-counter exchange rate option, whose trading is volatility oriented, it is the most important variable. This work investigates whether information embedded in this implied volatility market are explained by other traded variables in the Brazilian market. The results show that there are sources of non-negotiable risk that influence this implied volatility. Therefore, exchange rate implied volatility can assist to understand the behavior of the derivatives indexed to dollar.

  7. Asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on the Malaysia-China commodity trade

    OpenAIRE

    Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen; Aftab, Muhammad

    2017-01-01

    Previous research that considered the response of the trade balance between Malaysia and China to exchange rate changes used a linear model and did not find any significant long-run link. Suspecting that the results suffer from aggregation bias as well as ignoring nonlinear adjustment of the exchange rate, we consider the trade balance of 59 industries that trade between the two countries and use a nonlinear ARDL model to show that almost 1/3rd of the industries are affected by ringgit deprec...

  8. Fluxes and exchange rates of radon and oxygen across an air-sea interface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duenas, C.; Fernandez, M.C.; La Torre, M. de

    1986-01-01

    The flux of 222 Rn and O 2 from shallow water off the Bay of Malaga has been measured. The mean value of flux of 222 Rn is evaluated to be 74 atoms/m 2 · s. The Bay is a weak source of oxygen to the atmosphere, where the net production of oxygen is found to be 1.82 mol/m 2 · y. Moreover, the gas exchange rates of 222 Rn and O 2 across the air-sea interface has been determined by the radon method. The gas exchange rates and the wind speed have been estimated. (author)

  9. Exchange rate regimes, saving glut and the Feldstein Horioka puzzle: The East Asian experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaya-Bahçe, Seçil; Özmen, Erdal

    2008-04-01

    This paper investigates whether the recent experience of the emerging East Asian countries with current account surpluses is consistent with the “saving glut” hypothesis and the Feldstein and Horioka puzzle. The evidence suggests that the saving retention coefficients declined substantially in most of the countries after an endogenous break date coinciding with a major exchange rate regime change with the 1997-1998 crisis. Exchange rate flexibility appears to be enhancing financial integration. The results are consistent with an “investment slump” explanation rather than the “saving glut” postulation.

  10. Onto Exchange Rate's Short Run Impact on Oil Prices Dynamics: An OPEC Members' perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Sadek Melhem; Michel Terraza

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we study the oil price formation for the purpose of understanding price reactions of OPEC member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar and prices of other members in the short run. The results suggested that there is a partial impact of exchange rates volatility on oil prices dynamics in short runs. Moreover, the study demonstrated that Saudi Arabia behaves as a leader in the OPEC structure market while it behaves differently when linked to other reference ...

  11. Extensive and intensive margins and the choice of exchange rate regimes

    OpenAIRE

    Masashige Hamano; Pierre M. Picard

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies how the choice of fixed or flexible exchange rate regimes is affected by the existence of intensive and extensive margins. We study two models where firms enter during or before each period of production. We show how the the choice of those regimes depend on the level and the volatily of the intensive and extensive margins as well as on the congruence between consumers' preferences and the supply and diversity of products. We show that fixed exchange rate regimes are prefer...

  12. E-Commerce and Exchange Rate Exposure Management: A Tilt towards Real Hedging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aabo, Tom

    2001-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to address the impact of E-commerce on the balance between real hedging and financial hedging in the context of exchange rate exposure management in non-financial companies. A cross-case study of industrial companies highlights the inadequacy in taking a partial and static...... financial approach when managing exchange rate exposures. The paper argues that the emergence of E-commerce - by reducing the cost of obtaining, analyzing and allocating information - affects the dynamics of the markets and the dynamics of the company in such a way that a general tilt towards real hedging...

  13. Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Turkey : It is Slow, but is it Really Low?

    OpenAIRE

    Hakan Kara; Fethi Ogunc

    2005-01-01

    Using a vector auto-regression (VAR) setup, we estimate the pass-through from exchange rates and import prices to domestic inflation in Turkey, and produce some stylized facts regarding the degree and the adjustment speed of the pass-through on several price measures. Estimations for two distinct periods-before and after the adoption of floating exchange rate regime-yield both good and bad news. The good news is, our impulse responses confirm the common conjecture that pass-through has weaken...

  14. pH and urea dependence of amide hydrogen-deuterium exchange rates in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houliston, R Scott; Liu, Chengsong; Singh, Laila M R; Meiering, Elizabeth M

    2002-01-29

    Amide hydrogen/deuterium exchange rates were measured as a function of pH and urea for 37 slowly exchanging amides in the beta-trefoil protein hisactophilin. The rank order of exchange rates is generally maintained under different solution conditions, and trends in the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates are correlated with the rank order of exchange rates. The observed trends are consistent with the expected behavior for exchange of different amides via global and/or local unfolding. Analysis of the pH dependence of exchange in terms of rate constants for structural opening and closing reveals a wide range of rates in different parts of the hisactophilin structure. The slowest exchanging amides have the slowest opening and closing rates. Many of the slowest exchanging amides are located in trefoil 2, but there are also some slow exchanging amides in trefoils 1 and 3. Slow exchangers tend to be near the interface between the beta-barrel and the beta-hairpin triplet portions of this single-domain structure. The pattern of exchange behaviour in hisactophilin is similar to that observed previously in interleukin-1 beta, indicating that exchange properties may be conserved among beta-trefoil proteins. Comparisons of opening and closing rates in hisactophilin with rates obtained for other proteins reveal clear trends for opening rates; however, trends in closing rates are less apparent, perhaps due to inaccuracies in the values used for intrinsic exchange rates in the data fitting. On the basis of the pH and urea dependence of exchange rates and optical measurements of stability and folding, EX2 is the main exchange mechanism in hisactophilin, but there is also evidence for varying levels of EX1 exchange at low and high pH and high urea concentrations. Equilibrium intermediates in which subglobal portions of structure are cooperatively disrupted are not apparent from analysis of the urea dependence of exchange rates. There is, however, a strong correlation between

  15. Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Höök, Mikael; Li, Junchen; Johansson, Kersti; Snowden, Simon

    2012-01-01

    The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal.

  16. Effect of selection for relative growth rate and bodyweight of mice on rate, composition and efficiency of growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, H.

    1974-01-01

    To evaluate the effect of selection for parameters of a growth curve, four selection lines and a control line were started from one base population. In the selection lines is selected for a large and a small relative growth rate between 21 and 29 days (RGH and RGL) and for a large and

  17. Investigation of growth rate dispersion in lactose crystallisation by AFM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dincer, T. D.; Ogden, M. I.; Parkinson, G. M.

    2014-09-01

    α-Lactose monohydrate crystals have been reported to exhibit growth rate dispersion (GRD). Variation in surface dislocations has been suggested as the cause of GRD, but this has not been further investigated to date. In this study, growth rate dispersion and the change in morphology were investigated in situ and via bottle roller experiments. The surfaces of the (0 1 0) faces of crystals were examined with Atomic Force Microscopy. Smaller, slow growing crystals tend to have smaller (0 1 0) faces with narrow bases and displayed a single double spiral in the centre of the crystal with 2 nm high steps. Additional double spirals in other crystals resulted in faster growth rates. Large, fast growing crystals were observed to have larger (0 1 0) faces with fast growth in both the a and b directions (giving a broader crystal base) with macro steps parallel to the (c direction). The number and location of spirals or existence of macro steps appears to influence the crystal morphology, growth rates and growth rate dispersion in lactose crystals.

  18. Money Supply, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2008-12-11

    Dec 11, 2008 ... étude révèlent que l'efficacité de la politique monétaire constituerait un frein à la politique d'expansion monétaire au Cameroun. ... constractionary or expansionary monetary, fiscal, physical or commercial policies to ... of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies as well as industrial, agricultural and even ...

  19. Separation of rate processes for isotopic exchange between hydrogen and liquid water in packed columns 10

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Butler, J.P.; Hartog, J. den; Goodale, J.W.; Rolston, J.H.

    1977-01-01

    Wetproofed platinum catalysts in packed columns promote isotopic exchange between counter-current streams of hydrogen saturated with water vapour and liquid water. The net rate of deuterium transfer from isotopically enriched hydrogen has been measured and separated into two rate processes involving the transfer of deuterium from hydrogen to water vapour and from water vapour to liquid. These are compared with independent measurements of the two rate processes to test the two-step successive exchange model for trickle bed reactors. The separated transfer rates are independent of bed height and characterize the deuterium concentrations of each stream along the length of the bed. The dependences of the transfer rates upon hydrogen and liquid flow, hydrogen pressure, platinum loading and the effect of dilution of the hydrophobic catalyst with inert hydrophilic packing are reported. The results indicate a third process may be important in the transfer of deuterium between hydrogen and liquid water. (author)

  20. Testing General Relativity using the growth rate of structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pouri, Athina; Basilakos, Spyros

    2013-01-01

    We place tight constraints on the growth index γ by using the recent growth history results of 2dFGRS, SDSS-LRG, VIMOS-VLT deep Survey (VVDS), and WiggleZ datasets. Utilizing a standard likelihood analysis, we find that the use of the combined growth data provided by the previous mentioned galaxy surveys, puts the most stringent constraints on the value of the growth index. Assuming a constant growth index, we obtain that γ = 0.602±0.055 for the concordance ΛCDM expansion model. Based on the Dvali-Gabadadze-Porrati gravity model, we find γ = 0.503±0.06 which is lower, and almost 3σ away, from the theoretically predicted value of γ DGP ≊ 11/16 implying that the present growth rate data disfavor the DGP gravity

  1. The Influences of the Exchange Rate on the Performance of Romanian Trade

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriela Dobrotă

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The unprecedented development of international trade relations has generated the possibility of obtaining a significant part of the GDP of the participating countries in foreign trade. As a result, the issue of competitiveness in international economy has become a major concern to authorities. In the category of factors which are influencing the competitiveness level is registered the volatility of the exchange rate. In this paper there were analyzed the aspects regarding the evolution of Romania's foreign trade and exchange rate, in the context of monetary policy measures. The conclusion is that the development plan of the national economy is determined by the action of a complex of economic, social and political factors, but measures taken by the monetary authorities in relation to the regime of exchange may generate visible effects at this level and thus to the volume of foreign trade relations.

  2. Medium-dependent control of the bacterial growth rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrenberg, Måns; Bremer, Hans; Dennis, Patrick P

    2013-04-01

    By combining results from previous studies of nutritional up-shifts we here re-investigate how bacteria adapt to different nutritional environments by adjusting their macromolecular composition for optimal growth. We demonstrate that, in contrast to a commonly held view the macromolecular composition of bacteria does not depend on the growth rate as an independent variable, but on three factors: (i) the genetic background (i.e. the strain used), (ii) the physiological history of the bacteria used for inoculation of a given growth medium, and (iii) the kind of nutrients in the growth medium. These factors determine the ribosome concentration and the average rate of protein synthesis per ribosome, and thus the growth rate. Immediately after a nutritional up-shift, the average number of ribosomes in the bacterial population increases exponentially with time at a rate which eventually is attained as the final post-shift growth rate of all cell components. After a nutritional up-shift from one minimal medium to another minimal medium of higher nutritional quality, ribosome and RNA polymerase syntheses are co-regulated and immediately increase by the same factor equal to the increase in the final growth rate. However, after an up-shift from a minimal medium to a medium containing all 20 amino acids, RNA polymerase and ribosome syntheses are no longer coregulated; a smaller rate of synthesis of RNA polymerase is compensated by a gradual increase in the fraction of free RNA polymerase, possibly due to a gradual saturation of mRNA promoters. We have also analyzed data from a recent publication, in which it was concluded that the macromolecular composition in terms of RNA/protein and RNA/DNA ratios is solely determined by the effector molecule ppGpp. Our analysis indicates that this is true only in special cases and that, in general, medium adaptation also depends on factors other than ppGpp. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  3. The effect of size and competition on tree growth rate in old-growth coniferous forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Adrian

    2012-01-01

    Tree growth and competition play central roles in forest dynamics. Yet models of competition often neglect important variation in species-specific responses. Furthermore, functions used to model changes in growth rate with size do not always allow for potential complexity. Using a large data set from old-growth forests in California, models were parameterized relating growth rate to tree size and competition for four common species. Several functions relating growth rate to size were tested. Competition models included parameters for tree size, competitor size, and competitor distance. Competitive strength was allowed to vary by species. The best ranked models (using Akaike’s information criterion) explained between 18% and 40% of the variance in growth rate, with each species showing a strong response to competition. Models indicated that relationships between competition and growth varied substantially among species. The results also suggested that the relationship between growth rate and tree size can be complex and that how we model it can affect not only our ability to detect that complexity but also whether we obtain misleading results. In this case, for three of four species, the best model captured an apparent and unexpected decline in potential growth rate for the smallest trees in the data set.

  4. Monetary and exchange rate regimes changes: The cases of Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Republic of Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josifidis Kosta

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper explores (former transition economies, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia and the Republic of Serbia, concerning abandonment of the exchange rate targeting and fixed exchange rate regimes and movement toward explicit/implicit inflation targeting and flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper identifies different subperiods concerning crucial monetary and exchange rate regimes, and tracks the changes of specific monetary transmission channels i.e. exchange rate channel, interest rate channel, indirect and direct influences to the exchange rate, with variance decomposition of VAR/VEC model. The empirical results indicate that Polish monetary strategy toward higher monetary and exchange rate flexibility has been performed smoothly, gradually and planned, compared to the Slovak and, especially, Czech case. The comparison of three former transition economies with the Serbian case indicate strong and persistent exchange rate pass-through, low interest rate pass-through, significant indirect and direct influence to the exchange rate as potential obstacles for successful inflation targeting in the Republic of Serbia.

  5. Spin-exchange and spin-destruction rates for the 3He-Na system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Borel, P.I.; Soegaard, L.V.; Svendsen, W.E.; Andersen, N.

    2003-01-01

    Optically pumped Na is used as a spin-exchange partner to polarize 3 He. Polarizations around 20% have routinely been achieved in sealed spherical glass cells containing 3 He, N 2 , and a few droplets of Na. An optical technique has been developed to determine the Na- 3 He spin-exchange rate coefficient. By monitoring the Na spin relaxation ''in the dark,'' the average Na-Na spin-destruction cross section at 330 degree sign C is estimated to be around 5x10 -19 cm 2 . This value is 2-5 (15-30) times smaller than the previously reported values for the K-K (Rb-Rb) spin-relaxation cross section. In the temperature range 310-355 degree sign C the spin-exchange rate coefficient is found to be (6.1±0.6)x10 -20 cm 3 /s with no detectable temperature dependence. This value is in good agreement with a previous theoretical estimate reported by Walker and it is only slightly lower than the corresponding Rb- 3 He spin-exchange rate coefficient. The total Na- 3 He spin-destruction rate coefficient is, within errors, found to be the same as the Na- 3 He spin-exchange rate coefficient, thereby indicating that the maximum possible photon efficiency may approach unity for the Na- 3 He system. A technique, in which a charge-coupled device camera is used to take images of faint unquenched fluorescence light, has been utilized to allow for an instantaneous determination of the sodium number densities during the rate coefficient measurements

  6. Automated growth rate determination in high-throughput microbioreactor systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemmerich, Johannes; Wiechert, Wolfgang; Oldiges, Marco

    2017-11-25

    The calculation of growth rates provides basic metric for biological fitness and is standard task when using microbioreactors (MBRs) in microbial phenotyping. MBRs easily produce huge data at high frequency from parallelized high-throughput cultivations with online monitoring of biomass formation at high temporal resolution. Resulting high-density data need to be processed efficiently to accelerate experimental throughput. A MATLAB code is presented that detects the exponential growth phase from multiple microbial cultivations in an iterative procedure based on several criteria, according to the model of exponential growth. These were obtained with Corynebacterium glutamicum showing single exponential growth phase and Escherichia coli exhibiting diauxic growth with exponential phase followed by retarded growth. The procedure reproducibly detects the correct biomass data subset for growth rate calculation. The procedure was applied on data set detached from growth phenotyping of library of genome reduced C. glutamicum strains and results agree with previously reported results where manual effort was needed to pre-process the data. Thus, the automated and standardized method enables a fair comparison of strain mutants for biological fitness evaluation. The code is easily parallelized and greatly facilitates experimental throughout in biological fitness testing from strain screenings conducted with MBR systems.

  7. The effect of European integration on exchange rate dependence: the Polish accession to the EU

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiel, J.H.; van Giersbergen, N.P.A.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of the Polish accession to the European Union (EU) on the dependence between the euro-US dollar and Polish zloty-US dollar exchange rate. The dependence is estimated by means of copulas as suggested by Patton (2006). This approach allows to first specify and

  8. Anchor, float or abandon ship: exchange rate regimes for the accession countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Willem H. Buiter

    2002-06-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers alternative exchange rate regimes for the East Europeanaccession candidates, both prior to EU accession and following EU accession but prior to EMU membership. We conclude that, from an economic point of view, EMU membership should be as early as possible. There is, however, a risk that prevailing interpretations of the inflation and exchange rate criteria for EMU membership could lead to unnecessary delays in EMU membership for the accession countries. Theexchange rate criterion for EMU membership requires that the candidate "has respected the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange ratemechanism of the European Monetary System without severe tensions for at least the last two yeas before the examination." Both this text and the precedents of Finland, Italy and Greece, support the view that the exchange rate criterion can be satisfied without two years of formal ERMII membership. Insistence on at least two years of formal ERMII membership for the accession countries, would result in an unnecessary, costly and potentially risky stay in EMU purgatory.

  9. Exchange rate bands and optimal monetary accommodation under a dirty float

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Beetsma, R.M.W.J.; van der Ploeg, R.

    1992-01-01

    This paper studies regimes of managed exchange rates for a small open economy with an integrated capital market, rational expectations in financial markets, sluggish nominal wages and prices, and supply shocks that follow a Brownian motion. Each regime can be characterized by the degree to which

  10. The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Real Exchange Rate: Anecdotal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Further empirical work remains to be done in order to establish the link between a budget deficit and movements in the real exchange rate for a small but open economy such as Tanzania. Only in this way can one justify the prevailing concerns among policy makers in Tanzania over the need to eliminate the budget deficit ...

  11. Exchange rate regimes and shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babetskii, Ian; Boone, J.; Maurel, M.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 32, č. 2 (2004), s. 212-229 ISSN 0147-5967 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : EU enlargement * exchange rate regimes * optimal currency area criteria Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.836, year: 2004

  12. Forecasting Volatility of USD/MUR Exchange Rate using a GARCH ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at evaluating volatility forecasts for the US Dollar/Mauritian Rupee exchange rate obtained via a GARCH (1,1) model under two distributional assumptions: the Generalized Error Distribution (GED) and the. Student's-t distribution. We make use of daily data to evaluate the parameters of each model and ...

  13. Exchange rate regimes and supply shocks asymmetry: the case of the accession countries

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Babeckij, Jan; Boone, L.; Maurel, M.

    č. 206 (2003), s. 1-40 ISSN 1211-3298 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z7085904 Keywords : EU enlargement * exchange rate regimes * OCA criteria Subject RIV: AH - Economics http://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp206.pdf

  14. Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve. The case of oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, Ayoub; Wirjanto, Tony S.

    2003-01-01

    This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries' import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia's long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia

  15. The common-trend and transitory dynamics in real exchange rate fluctuations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bergman, Ulf Michael; Cheung, Yin-Wong; Lai, Kon S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examines the behaviour of both Common Trend (CT) and transitory components of Real Exchange Rate (RER) fluctuations under the current float. The CT component is in most cases found to be sizeable, albeit its relative importance can vary considerably across major currencies and its...

  16. Experiments probing the influence of air exchange rates on secondary organic aerosols derived from indoor chemistry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Weschler, Charles J.; Shields, H.C.

    2003-01-01

    Reactions between ozone and terpenes have been shown to increase the concentrations of submicron particles in indoor settings. The present study was designed to examine the influence of air exchange rates on the concentrations of these secondary organic aerosols as well as on the evolution...

  17. The Nonlinear Dynamic Relationship of Exchange Rates: Parametric and Nonparametric Causality testing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bekiros, S.D.; Diks, C.

    2007-01-01

    The present study investigates the long-term linear and nonlinear causal linkages among six currencies, namely EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, AUD/USD and USD/CAD. The prime motivation for choosing these exchange rates comes from the fact that they are the most liquid and widely traded, covering

  18. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  19. The Monetary Exchange Rate Model as a Long-Run Phenomenon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.J.J. Groen (Jan)

    1998-01-01

    textabstractPure time series-based tests fail to find empirical support for monetary exchange rate models. In this paper we apply pooled time series estimation on a forward-looking monetary model, resulting in parameter estimates which are in compliance with the underlying theory. Based on a panel

  20. Will ageing lead to a higher real exchange rate for the Netherlands?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ewijk, C.; Volkerink, M.

    2012-01-01

    Long term projections for the Netherlands indicate that demand for nontradables—e.g. health care services—will increase relative to supply due to population ageing. If this leads to higher future real exchanges rates this will erode the return of the savings currently made to prepare for ageing.