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Sample records for exchange oil future

  1. Shanghai and Hong Kong Join Efforts for Oil Futures Exchanges

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2003-01-01

    @@ Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEx) announced in midApril they will jointly introduce crude oil futures. The two exchanges will jointly develop an energy derivatives market that serves both Chinese and international investors,according to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed between the two exchanges.

  2. Underdeveloped spot markets and futures trading: The Soya Oil exchange in India

    OpenAIRE

    Bharat Ramaswami; Jatinder Bir Singh

    2006-01-01

    Abstract The limited presence of futures exchanges in developing countries where commodity markets fall short of the ideal underscore the importance of understanding the relation between spot and futures markets. The paper examines the exceptional success of the soya oil contract at the National Board of Trade (NBOT) in India. The paper asks whether the NBOT contract exhibits the fundamental features of mature futures markets in terms of its use by hedgers. If the market offers arbitrage oppo...

  3. Oil Price Forecasting Using Crack Spread Futures and Oil Exchange Traded Funds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hankyeung Choi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Given the emerging consensus from previous studies that crude oil and refined product (as well as crack spread prices are cointegrated, this study examines the link between the crude oil spot and crack spread derivatives markets. Specifically, the usefulness of the two crack spread derivatives products (namely, crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread for modeling and forecasting daily OPEC crude oil spot prices is evaluated. Based on the results of a structural break test, the sample is divided into pre-crisis, crisis, and post-crisis periods. We find a unidirectional relationship from the two crack spread derivatives markets to the crude oil spot market during the post-crisis period. In terms of forecasting performance, the forecasting models based on crack spread futures and the ETF crack spread outperform the Random Walk Model (RWM, both in-sample and out-of-sample. In addition, on average, the results suggest that information from the ETF crack spread market contributes more to the forecasting models than information from the crack spread futures market.

  4. Cost and benefits for using NYMEX [New York Mercantile Exchange] crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deaves, R.; Krinsky, I.

    1991-01-01

    The crisis in the Persian Gulf in 1990-91 has illustrated how important it is for end users of petroleum products to be able to reduce the risk of unexpected price changes. Transferring the risk of price changes, or hedging, is most desirable when the costs of doing so are low relative to the benefits. The nature of these benefits and costs are discussed, and a related analysis of data from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil futures market is reported. It is shown that likely risk reduction is directly related to the degree to which the crude oil futures market can be characterized as efficient. Using data from the highly volatile period of 1983-90, evidence is presented to support the proposition that the crude oil market is efficient. There is no evidence for the existence of risk premiums, which constitute an additional cost to hedging. This is good news for hedgers, as it implies that risk transfer is free in the sense that hedgers need pay no premium to speculators. Although the market appears to be efficient when past returns and the basis are used as explanatory variables, there is some evidence that futures returns may be predicted using macroeconomic variables. 8 refs., 4 tabs

  5. China Likely to Resume Oil Futures Soon

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Chang Tianle

    2002-01-01

    @@ China is likely to resume operation of its oil futures this year, according to reports from the media about a futures conference organized by the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) in late May. "As China has become an important oil producer and consumer,the demand for our own oil futures market emerges,which will help China oil-related enterprises hedge risks," said Li Ruisheng, vice president of PetroChina's refining and marketing company.

  6. Oil futures and spot markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Samii, M.V.

    1992-01-01

    In the last decade, the oil futures market has risen to prominence and has become a major factor in influencing oil market psychology and the crude oil market. On a normal day, over 92 thousand contracts, the equivalent of 92 million barrels per day, change hands on the New York Mercantile Exchange, NYMEX. This market has provided a vehicle for hedging against risk. At the same time, it has also created opportunities for speculation. Those who previously were unable to participate in oil market transactions can now become involved through the futures market. The large number of participants in the future market and the availability of information has made this market more efficient and transparent, relative to the crude oil market. While there has been considerable in-depth analysis of other future markets, relatively little theoretical attention has focused on that of oil. This paper looks at the following issues. First, what is the relationship between futures and spot oil prices? And secondly, are futures prices a good predictor of spot crude prices in the future? (author)

  7. An analysis of the effectiveness of a joint commodity and foreign exchange rate futures hedge: The case of a Canadian crude oil trader

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klusa, L.J.

    1993-04-01

    This study focused on reducing risk for Canadian crude oil traders exposed to crude oil price and exchange rate uncertainty. Joint static and flow period hedges were developed and compared to unhedged positions and to naive and simple hedges. Optimal hedge ratio size and hedging effectiveness were identified for a variety of hedge lifting periods and durations. The in-sample results indicated that joint hedge models were more effective than other models in terms of minimizing the variance of returns. Out-of-sample results indicated that joint and simple commodity hedges were equally effective. Other findings included: shorter duration, close to expiry hedges were the most effective; the difference between the variability of spot and future price differences and their correlations were related to hedge ratio size; and a flow period hedge was the most effective hedge when spot prices were monthly average prices. 53 refs., 3 figs., 49 tabs

  8. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  9. Future of oil and gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatermann, R.; Ten Hoedt, R.

    2009-01-01

    Two articles in the section 'Future of oil and gas': one ('Baltic strained by oil traffic') on the growing risks of accidents in maritime traffic in the Baltic region, and one ('Angola wants bigger piece of the pie') on the importance of the oil production in Angola to energy supplies in Europe and the USA. It appears that national oil company Sonango wants to have a greater part of the profits

  10. The future of oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Richard G; Sorrell, Steven R

    2014-01-13

    Abundant supplies of oil form the foundation of modern industrial economies, but the capacity to maintain and grow global supply is attracting increasing concern. Some commentators forecast a peak in the near future and a subsequent terminal decline in global oil production, while others highlight the recent growth in 'tight oil' production and the scope for developing unconventional resources. There are disagreements over the size, cost and recoverability of different resources, the technical and economic potential of different technologies, the contribution of different factors to market trends and the economic implications of reduced supply. Few debates are more important, more contentious, more wide-ranging or more confused. This paper summarizes the main concepts, terms, issues and evidence that are necessary to understand the 'peak oil' debate. These include: the origin, nature and classification of oil resources; the trends in oil production and discoveries; the typical production profiles of oil fields, basins and producing regions; the mechanisms underlying those profiles; the extent of depletion of conventional oil; the risk of an approaching peak in global production; and the potential of various mitigation options. The aim is to introduce the subject to non-specialist readers and provide a basis for the subsequent papers in this Theme Issue.

  11. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  12. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  13. The speculative activity of the investment funds in the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) oil future prices formation; A atividade especulativa dos fundos de investimento na formacao dos precos futuros de petroleo no NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amin, Mario Miguel [Universidade da Amazonia (UNAMA), Manaus, AM (Brazil); Luczynski, Estanislau [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias

    2008-07-01

    The increase in the NYMEX future's market oil prices can be explained not only by traditional economic fundamentals of demand and supply, but also by the significant speculative participation of the Investment Funds, as measured by the extraordinary increase in the non-commercial spread traders' open interest positions, as published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The open interest increased from 66,234 in May 23, 2000, to 974,159 on May 13, 2008. On that day, the NYMEX reached the historic quantity of 3,149,667 contracts, being the spread trading responsible for 31% of that total. In terms of market liquidity, that percentage represented US$ 119,8 millions applied in the oil futures market. Given the availability of information from the NYMEX and CFTC, the objective of the study was to identify the participation, position and level of influence of the Investment Funds in the determination of international oil prices during the 2000 to 2008 period. The results of the analysis of the international oil prices behavior, in the NYMEX, show that a large portion of the price volatility, during the period 2000 to 2008, and more specifically in 2006 through 2008, was due to the significant process of speculation by the Investment Funds. Needing to recover the losses caused by the subprimes crisis, by the drop in the Wall Street's stock value and, specially, by the intense dollar devaluation in recent years, the Investment Funds sought cover in the commodities market, particularly in the oil futures market. (author)

  14. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ante Nosić

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price difference. Price differences are result of development of a transport possibilities of oil supply. Development of transport routes of natural gas and increasing number of liquefied natural gas terminals in the world give pressure to natural gas market and its integration into global gas market. Integration of regional gas markets into a common European gas market is main energy policy of EU concerning natural gas. On the other hand, there are still significant price differences on some markets (e.g. United States of America - South East Asia. Development of global energy markets is enabled by development of a futures and options contracts of an energy trade which have replaced bilateral contract deals between producers and consumers. Futures contracts are standardized contracts traded on exchanges. Buyer agrees to buy certain quantity of stock for an agreed upon price and with some future delivery date. Option is a contract which gives a buyer the option of the right to buy (or sell, depending on the option an asset at predetermined price and at a later date. Stocks price risk can be managed with the purchase and selling futures and options contracts. This paper deals with futures and options energy markets and their market strategies.

  15. Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lizardo, Radhames A.; Mollick, Andre V.

    2010-01-01

    Adding oil prices to the monetary model of exchange rates, we find that oil prices significantly explain movements in the value of the U.S. dollar (USD) against major currencies from the 1970s to 2008. Our long-run and forecasting results are remarkably consistent with an oil-exchange rate relationship. Increases in real oil prices lead to a significant depreciation of the USD against net oil exporter currencies, such as Canada, Mexico, and Russia. On the other hand, the currencies of oil importers, such as Japan, depreciate relative to the USD when the real oil price goes up. (author)

  16. Macro factors in oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    We investigate the macro factors that can explain the monthly oil futures return for the NYMEX WTI futures contract for the time period 1993:11 to 2010:03. We build a new database of 187 real and nominal macro-economic variables from developed and emerging countries and resort to the large factor approximate model to extract 9 factors from this dataset. We then regress crude oil return on several combinations of these factors. Our best model explains around 38% of the variability of oil futures return. More interestingly, the factor which has the largest influence on crude oil price is related to real variables from emerging countries. This result confirms the latest finding in the literature that the recent evolution in oil price is attributable to change in supply and demand conditions and not to the large increase in trading activity from speculators. (authors)

  17. Future directions conventional oil supply, Western Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campbell, G.R.; Hayward, J.

    1997-01-01

    The history of the Canadian oil industry was briefly sketched and the future outlook for crude oil and natural gas liquids in western Canada was forecast. The historical review encompassed some of the significant events in history of the Canadian oil industry, including the Leduc discovery in 1947, the Swan Hills discovery in 1957, the start of commercial production from the Athabasca oil sands in 1967, the discovery of the Hibernia oilfield offshore Newfoundland in 1979, and the onset of the use of horizontal production wells in western Canada in 1987. The resource base, supply costs, and the technology that is being developed to reduce costs and to improve recovery, were reviewed. Future oil prices were predicted, taking into account the costs associated with technological developments. It was suggested that the character of the industry is undergoing a change from an industry dominated by conventional supply to a mixed industry with increasing volume of heavy oil, primary bitumen, synthetic oil and frontier supply replacing 'conventional' light crude oil. Projections into the future are subject to uncertainty both on the supply as well as on the demand side. The potential impact of technology can significantly affect demand, and technological developments can yield additional supplies which exceed current expectations. 10 figs

  18. Resources and future supply of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kjaerstad, Jan; Johnsson, Filip

    2009-01-01

    This paper examines global oil resources and the future global oil supply/demand balance. The paper builds upon several comprehensive databases designed during the work and considerable efforts have been made to review what must be considered the most reliable data. Global oil resources have been investigated on three levels; country, company and field levels. Although no decisive conclusions or quantitative assessments can be made with respect to the global oil resource base, remaining resources appear to be sufficient to meet demand up to 2030 as projected in the 2006 (and 2007) world energy outlook by the IEA. Significant resources have already been discovered beyond proven reserves, many prospective regions remain to be fully explored and there are vast volumes of recoverable unconventional oil. However, it is also concluded that global supply of oil probably will continue to be tight, both in the medium term as well as in the long term mainly as a consequence of above-ground factors such as investment constraints, geopolitical tensions, limited access to reserves and mature super-giant fields. Production of unconventional oil and synthetic fuels is not believed to significantly alter this situation. Although an increasing number of recent reports have indicated an imminent or 'soon to come' peak in global oil supply, it has not been found that any of these reports have contributed with any new information on oil resources or oil supply ability. Nevertheless, there is a distinct possibility that global oil production may peak or plateau in a relatively near future, not caused by limited resources but because too many factors over long time constrain investments into exploration and production. The lack of transparency within the oil industry obviously prevents any accurate analysis of future production and supply ability. Moreover, our ability to analyse the sector will become more difficult in the future as oil increasingly will have to be sourced from

  19. Oil prices and the rise and fall of the U.S. real exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amano, R.A.; Norden, S. van.

    1993-12-01

    It is examined whether a link exists between oil price shocks and the U.S. real effective exchange rate. Data used for the study are described and their time series properties and the long-run explanatory power of oil prices for the real exchange rate are examined. Apparent causal relationships between exchange rates and oil prices are examined. An unrestricted error correction model is reduced until an error correction model with reasonable properties is derived. Results show that the two variables appear to be cointegrated and that causality runs from oil prices to the exchange rate and not vice-versa. The single equation error correction model linking these two variables is stable and captures much of the in- and out-of-sample movement in the exchange rate in dynamic simulation. Tests are presented to show that the error correction model has significant post-sample predictive ability for both the size and sign of changes in the real effective exchange rate. The results suggest that oil prices may have been the dominant source of persistant real exchange rate shocks over the post-Bretton Woods period and that energy prices may have important implications for future work on exchange rate behaviour. 61 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs

  20. Jump spillover between oil prices and exchange rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiao-Ping; Zhou, Chun-Yang; Wu, Chong-Feng

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we investigate the jump spillover effects between oil prices and exchange rates. To identify the latent historical jumps for exchange rates and oil prices, we use a Bayesian MCMC approach to estimate the stochastic volatility model with correlated jumps in both returns and volatilities for each. We examine the simultaneous jump intensities and the conditional jump spillover probabilities between oil prices and exchange rates, finding strong evidence of jump spillover effects. Further analysis shows that the jump spillovers are mainly due to exogenous events such as financial crises and geopolitical events. Thus, the findings have important implications for financial risk management.

  1. Cross-Market Linkages of Taiwan Index Futures Contracts Listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange and the Singapore Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Hung-Gay Fung; Qingfeng "Wilson" Liu; Gyoungsin "Daniel" Park

    2007-01-01

    Cointegration tests and ex ante trading rules are applied to study cross-market linkages between the Taiwan Index futures contracts listed on the Singapore Exchange and the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization-weighted Stock Index futures contracts listed on the Taiwan Futures Exchange. The exchange rate-adjusted returns of the two futures series do not differ significantly in mean but in variances, and show significant mean-reverting tendencies between them. Our trading strategies are able t...

  2. The term structure of oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabillon, J.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

  3. Network topology of an experimental futures exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S. C.; Tseng, J. J.; Tai, C. C.; Lai, K. H.; Wu, W. S.; Chen, S. H.; Li, S. P.

    2008-03-01

    Many systems of different nature exhibit scale free behaviors. Economic systems with power law distribution in the wealth are one of the examples. To better understand the working behind the complexity, we undertook an experiment recording the interactions between market participants. A Web server was setup to administer the exchange of futures contracts whose liquidation prices were coupled to event outcomes. After free registration, participants started trading to compete for the money prizes upon maturity of the futures contracts at the end of the experiment. The evolving `cash' flow network was reconstructed from the transactions between players. We show that the network topology is hierarchical, disassortative and small-world with a power law exponent of 1.02±0.09 in the degree distribution after an exponential decay correction. The small-world property emerged early in the experiment while the number of participants was still small. We also show power law-like distributions of the net incomes and inter-transaction time intervals. Big winners and losers are associated with high degree, high betweenness centrality, low clustering coefficient and low degree-correlation. We identify communities in the network as groups of the like-minded. The distribution of the community sizes is shown to be power-law distributed with an exponent of 1.19±0.16.

  4. China: a black hole for future oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cragg, Chris.

    1997-01-01

    Whenever two or three oil price forecasters are gathered together, the conversation generally gets round to the position of China. For China holds a great many of the keys to the future structure of global oil demand. Its astonishing rates of growth projected forward suggest a rapid transition towards high import dependency in the early years of the next century. After all, if the Chinese had the same passion for per capita oil consumption as people in the UK, they would use 22 million barrels a day (mbd), not the 3 mbd they currently consume. Yet to the puzzlement of many, China never quite behaves the way its exponential flight path suggests it will. (author)

  5. Forecasting oil price movements with crack spread futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Murat, Atilim; Tokat, Ekin

    2009-01-01

    In oil markets, the crack spread refers to the crude-product price relationship. Refiners are major participants in oil markets and they are primarily exposed to the crack spread. In other words, refiner activity is substantially driven by the objective of protecting the crack spread. Moreover, oil consumers are active participants in the oil hedging market and they are frequently exposed to the crack spread. From another perspective, hedge funds are heavily using crack spread to speculate in oil markets. Based on the high volume of crack spread futures trading in oil markets, the question we want to raise is whether the crack spread futures can be a good predictor of oil price movements. We investigated first whether there is a causal relationship between the crack spread futures and the spot oil markets in a vector error correction framework. We found the causal impact of crack spread futures on spot oil market both in the long- and the short-run after April 2003 where we detected a structural break in the model. To examine the forecasting performance, we use the random walk model (RWM) as a benchmark, and we also evaluate the forecasting power of crack spread futures against the crude oil futures. The results showed that (a) both the crack spread futures and the crude oil futures outperformed the RWM; and (b) the crack spread futures are almost as good as the crude oil futures in predicting the movements in spot oil markets. (author)

  6. Giant Oil Fields - The Highway to Oil: Giant Oil Fields and their Importance for Future Oil Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robelius, Fredrik

    2007-01-01

    Since the 1950s, oil has been the dominant source of energy in the world. The cheap supply of oil has been the engine for economic growth in the western world. Since future oil demand is expected to increase, the question to what extent future production will be available is important. The belief in a soon peak production of oil is fueled by increasing oil prices. However, the reliability of the oil price as a single parameter can be questioned, as earlier times of high prices have occurred without having anything to do with a lack of oil. Instead, giant oil fields, the largest oil fields in the world, can be used as a parameter. A giant oil field contains at least 500 million barrels of recoverable oil. Only 507, or 1 % of the total number of fields, are giants. Their contribution is striking: over 60 % of the 2005 production and about 65 % of the global ultimate recoverable reserve (URR). However, giant fields are something of the past since a majority of the largest giant fields are over 50 years old and the discovery trend of less giant fields with smaller volumes is clear. A large number of the largest giant fields are found in the countries surrounding the Persian Gulf. The domination of giant fields in global oil production confirms a concept where they govern future production. A model, based on past annual production and URR, has been developed to forecast future production from giant fields. The results, in combination with forecasts on new field developments, heavy oil and oil sand, are used to predict future oil production. In all scenarios, peak oil occurs at about the same time as the giant fields peak. The worst-case scenario sees a peak in 2008 and the best-case scenario, following a 1.4 % demand growth, peaks in 2018

  7. The Volatility of Oil Prices on Stock Exchanges in the Context of Recent Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Popescu Maria-Floriana

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Oil along with currencies and gold are the main indicators of the most important processes which take place in the world economy, quotations’ volatility being always followed by economic and social events. Quiet periods of oil prices, when quotations have a constant evolution or only suffer minor fluctuations, are very rare. Most of the time, very sharp price increases or decreases are happening over night or week. This is mostly due to the fact that the oil market is extremely speculative, being influenced by political, military, social, or meteorological events. Since the major oil price shocks of the 70s, the impact of oil price changes on the economic reality of a country or region has been widely studied by academic researchers. Moreover, the stock market plays an important role in the economic welfare and development of a country. Therefore, a vast number of studies have investigated the relationship between oil prices and stock market returns, being discovered significant effects of oil price shocks on the macroeconomic activity for both developed and emerging countries. The purpose of this study is to investigate the volatility of oil prices on stock exchanges taking into consideration the recent events that have affected the oil markets around the globe. Furthermore, based on the findings of this research, some possible scenarios will be developed, taking into account various events that might take place and their potential outcome for oil prices’ future.

  8. A new approach to measure speculation in the oil futures market and some policy implications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chan, Leo H.; Nguyen, Chi M.; Chan, Kam C.

    2015-01-01

    We propose using a new relative measure, the speculative ratio, defined as trading volume divided by open interest, to gauge speculative activity in the oil futures market. We apply the speculative ratio to examine the relation between basis and speculative activity in the oil futures market before and after the financialization of the oil market in 2003. Our finding suggests that the oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in the post-financialization period. Our finding carries several practical policy implications, as follows: (1) both the commodity exchange and the regulator should design regulations and trading policies that improve basis risk; (2) on the commodity exchange side, new policies on margin requirements and position limits for speculators should be implemented; (3) margin requirements should be based on the level of basis risk; (4) regulators should speed up implementation of the position limit rule in the Dodd–Frank Act; and (5) stronger and more meaningful enforcement actions by regulators are required to punish and deter market manipulators. - Highlights: • Use a new speculative ratio to gauge speculative activities in oil futures market. • Examine the relation between basis and speculative activities. • The new speculative ratio also works well in the post-2008 oil bubble period. • Oil futures market is dominated by uninformed speculators in post-financialization in 2003.

  9. Dynamics of oil price, precious metal prices, and exchange rate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sari, Ramazan; Soytas, Ugur; Hammoudeh, Shawkat

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the co-movements and information transmission among the spot prices of four precious metals (gold, silver, platinum, and palladium), oil price, and the US dollar/euro exchange rate. We find evidence of a weak long-run equilibrium relationship but strong feedbacks in the short run. The spot precious metal markets respond significantly (but temporarily) to a shock in any of the prices of the other metal prices and the exchange rate. Furthermore, we discover some evidence of market overreactions in the palladium and platinum cases as well as in the exchange rate market. In conclusion, whether there are overreactions and re-adjustments or not, investors may diversify at least a portion of the risk away by investing in precious metals, oil, and the euro. Policy implications are provided. (author)

  10. Oil development in China: Current status and future trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma Linwei; Fu Feng; Li Zheng; Liu Pei

    2012-01-01

    The future of oil has become an important topic of the discussion of energy policy in China. This paper attempts to present a full picture of the current status and future trends of China’s oil development through system analysis. First, we map a Sankey diagram of China’s oil flow to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. Then, we present the historical and ongoing trends of China’s oil flow from key aspects such as oil demand, oil resource availability, technology improvement, and policy adjustment. Based on these understandings, we design three scenarios of China’s oil demand in 2030, and analyze policy implications for oil saving, automotive energy development, and energy security. From the analysis, we draw some conclusions for policy decisions, such as to control the total oil consumption to avoid energy security risks, to enhance oil saving in all sectors with road transportation as the emphasis, and to increase the investment on oil production and refining to secure oil supply and reduce emissions. - Highlights: ► A Sankey Diagram to reveal the physical pattern of China’s oil supply and consumption. ► Present the ongoing trends of China’s oil development. ► Discuss important policy issues such as oil saving, energy security, and emissions reduction.

  11. A Marketing Approach to Commodity Futures Exchanges : A Case Study of the Dutch Hog Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meulenberg, M.T.G.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a marketing strategic approach to commodity futures exchanges to optimise the (hedging) services offered. First, the environment of commodity futures exchanges is examined. Second, the threats and opportunities of commodity futures exchanges are analysed. Our analysis

  12. The future for heavy crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horsnell, P.

    1995-01-01

    The expectation, still held in 1993, that the light oil-heavy crude oil differential would go on increasing in favour of light oil has not been fulfilled. Current perceptions are that heavy oil will continue to be relatively strong and there is no inevitable upward trend in light-heavy crude differentials. Non-OPEC production has grown significantly lighter overall in recent years and is likely to continue so for several more years. This is due to expanded light oil production in the North Sea, Latin America and the Far East, and contractions in heavy oil production in Russia and the USA. OPEC production has also become lighter with, in particular, an expansion in light oil and contraction in heavy grades from Saudi Arabia. At the same time, the nature of the demand from refineries has changed with the introduction of new units designed to process the residium from heavy oil distillation. Thus the supply of light oil has expanded while demand for it has contracted with the reverse being true for heavy oil. (2 figures, 1 table) (UK)

  13. Mideast crisis and pricing in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamed, A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Futures prices and the corresponding expected future cash price on crude oil markets differ. The difference is hypothesized to be due to a time varying risk premium where risk is due to either cash price volatility, oil output volatility, or unanticipated oil price movement. And this risk is measured by the conditional variance of the forementioned sources of risk. Using the ARCH (Autoregressive Conditional Heterosckdasticity) model and its extensions this study addresses the determination of the time varying risk premium. Political unrest in the Mideast oil exporting countries is hypothesized to be a determinant of the time varying risk premium in the oil futures market. The empirical tests allow informative inferences to be drawn on the role of political unrest in pricing oil

  14. The Canadian oil sands--a sticky future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cowtan, S A

    1977-01-01

    The oil sands have been known for 200 yr but only over the last decade have they been recognized as a potential major energy source for Canada. The study looks at the present GCOS plant, and briefly discusses Canada's future energy requirements and how she might fill those requirements from conventional and nonconventional sources, such as the Frontier areas, oil sands mining, oil sands in situ, and heavy oil. The economics and the future of these sources and the environment necessary for their development are analyzed.

  15. Aviation fuel and future oil production scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nygren, Emma; Aleklett, Kjell; Hoeoek, Mikael

    2009-01-01

    Most aviation fuels are jet fuels originating from crude oil. Crude oil must be refined to be useful and jet fuel is only one of many products that can be derived from crude oil. Jet fuel is extracted from the middle distillates fraction and competes, for example, with the production of diesel. Crude oil is a limited natural resource subject to depletion and several reports indicate that the world's crude oil production is close to the maximum level and that it will start to decrease after reaching this maximum. A post-Kyoto political agenda to reduce oil consumption will have the same effect on aviation fuel production as a natural decline in the crude oil production. On the other hand, it is predicted by the aviation industry that aviation traffic will keep on increasing. The industry has put ambitious goals on increases in fuel efficiency for the aviation fleet. Traffic is predicted to grow by 5% per year to 2026, fuel demand by about 3% per year. At the same time, aviation fuel production is predicted to decrease by several percent each year after the crude oil production peak is reached resulting in a substantial shortage of jet fuel by 2026. The aviation industry will have a hard time replacing this with fuel from other sources, even if air traffic remains at current levels.

  16. OPEC charts course for future oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto, H.E.

    1992-01-01

    The author says OPEC is an economic organization with a simple mission: to provide a stable and reliable supply of oil to its customers and assure a fair return to its producers. When OPEC was formed in 1960, he recalls multinational oil companies dominated the oil market. Their operations were highly integrated from well to pump, and they kept oil prices low to fuel economic growth in prosperous industrialized countries. Host nations were rarely consulted in operations, and they reaped only minimal return for their black gold. OPEC changed all that. Today, OPEC's 13 member countries control their own oil industries, and some even own sizeable investments in the downstream sectors of consuming countries. To meet its commitment for supplying the petroleum needs of industrialized nations by the turn of the century, the author estimates OPEC will need to increase production capacity by about 40% at a cost well above what member countries can afford alone

  17. Cross-correlations between crude oil and exchange markets for selected oil rich economies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jianfeng; Lu, Xinsheng; Zhou, Ying

    2016-07-01

    Using multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis (MF-DCCA), this paper studies the cross-correlation behavior between crude oil market and five selected exchange rate markets. The dataset covers the period of January 1,1996-December 31,2014, and contains 4,633 observations for each of the series, including daily closing prices of crude oil, Australian Dollars, Canadian Dollars, Mexican Pesos, Russian Rubles, and South African Rand. Our empirical results obtained from cross-correlation statistic and cross-correlation coefficient have confirmed the existence of cross-correlations, and the MF-DCCA results have demonstrated a strong multifractality between cross-correlated crude oil market and exchange rate markets in both short term and long term. Using rolling window analysis, we have also found the persistent cross-correlations between the exchange rates and crude oil returns, and the cross-correlation scaling exponents exhibit volatility during some time periods due to its sensitivity to sudden events.

  18. A fear index to predict oil futures returns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    This paper evaluates the predictability of WTI light sweet crude oil futures by using the variance risk premium, i.e. the difference between model-free measures of implied and realized volatilities. Additional regressors known for their ability to explain crude oil futures prices are also considered, capturing macro-economic, financial and oil-specific influences. The results indicate that the explanatory power of the (negative) variance risk premium on oil excess returns is particularly strong (up to 25% for the adjusted R-squared across our regressions). It complements other financial (e.g. default spread) and oil-specific (e.g. US oil stocks) factors highlighted in previous literature. (authors)

  19. Shanghai Futures Exchange Published Draft of Tin and Nickel Futures Contract

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    Shanghai Futures Exchange published draft for soliciting opinions for tin and nickel futures contract on its official website on January 19,which implies the marketing time of the long awaited tin and nickel futures is drawing near.According to the draft for soliciting opinions,the transaction unit of tin futures contract is 1tonne/lot,minimum variation unit is 10 yuan/tonne,daily maximum price fluctuation shall

  20. The future of national oil Companies of OPEC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subroto.

    1994-01-01

    OPEC countries are dependent on their National Oil Companies for international trade, economy, technology transfer and social planning. With low oil prices, increasing demand and worsened financial and economic status, time has come to give priority to two major issues necessary for health existence and growth of our national oil companies : cost reduction through the application of new technologies and less support from public funds ; planning for future markets beyond national borders, particularly developing countries. (Author)

  1. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  2. Evidence of efficiency in United States futures oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duchock, C.J. Jr.

    1991-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to use the Perpetual Contract Data for West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures contracts in studies of the US crude oil futures market prices to determine whether the market was efficient. Analysis was done to determine whether the Perpetual Contract Data exhibited the characteristics of a random walk. Daily data on US crude oil perpetual futures contract prices were analyzed using standard statistical techniques and spectral analysis techniques. Spectral analysis was used on the first differences of daily data to determine whether the price change data contained cyclicality. Results showed no significant cycles or autocorrelation in the data, concluding there was evidence to indicate the Perpetual Contract Data for futures prices is a random walk. This is similar to the conclusion by Howard (1988) that spot West Texas Intermediate Crude prices follow a random walk. Thus, both the futures and spot markets efficiently capture current information in prices

  3. OIL AND GAS FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Ante Nosić; Daria Karasalihović Sedlar; Lucija Jukić

    2017-01-01

    Energy mineral resources markets are represented by complex supply and demand ratios which are depending on different factors such as technical (transport) and geopolitical. The main specific of energy markets is represented by an uneven geographic distribution of hydrocarbon reserves and exploration on one hand and energy consumption on the other. World oil markets, although geographically localized, because of specific market trade, represent unique global market with decreasing price diffe...

  4. The future of oil and hydrocarbon man

    CERN Document Server

    Campbell, Colin

    1999-01-01

    Man appeared on the planet about four million years ago, and by 1850 numbered about one billion Ten came Hydrocarbon man. World population has since increased six-fold. After the oil price shocks of the 1970s, people asked "when will production peak?". It is not easy to answer this question because of the very poor database. Reserves and the many different hydrocarbon categories are poorly defined, reporting practices are ambiguous, revisions are not backdated...

  5. Heterogeneous effects of oil shocks on exchange rates: evidence from a quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xianfang; Zhu, Huiming; You, Wanhai; Ren, Yinghua

    2016-01-01

    The determinants of exchange rates have attracted considerable attention among researchers over the past several decades. Most studies, however, ignore the possibility that the impact of oil shocks on exchange rates could vary across the exchange rate returns distribution. We employ a quantile regression approach to address this issue. Our results indicate that the effect of oil shocks on exchange rates is heterogeneous across quantiles. A large US depreciation or appreciation tends to heighten the effects of oil shocks on exchange rate returns. Positive oil demand shocks lead to appreciation pressures in oil-exporting countries and this result is robust across lower and upper return distributions. These results offer rich and useful information for investors and decision-makers.

  6. Oil futures prices and stock management: a cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Balabanoff, Stefan

    1995-01-01

    Futures markets are considered important to hedgers and speculators. Therefore, they are relevant to stock management. This issue is tested empirically by applying the methodology of cointegration analysis and causality testing to the monthly average of commercial (non-strategic) primary oil stocks and monthly averages of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot and futures prices for one month and three-months delivery, over the period January 1985 to June 1993. Long-and short-run relations are presented. The results support the view of a relationships between futures prices and oil stocks. (author)

  7. Exploring the undulating plateau: the future of global oil supply.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jackson, Peter M; Smith, Leta K

    2014-01-13

    In this paper, we analyse the factors that will influence long-term oil supply and describe the future form of the global oil supply profile as an 'undulating plateau' rather than an irreversible, short-term peak or an ever upward trend of increasing production. The ultimate transition from a world of relatively plentiful and cheap oil to one of tight supply and high cost will be slow and challenging. An understanding of the signposts for the future path of supply and the drivers of that profile will be critical to managing the transition. The ultimate form of the global supply curve may well be dictated by demand evolution rather than a limited resource endowment in the longer term. Several factors will probably control future global oil supply. We believe that the scale of global oil resource will not constitute a physical supply limit for at least the next two or three decades. However, all categories of oil resources are already more expensive to develop than in the past, requiring high oil prices to stimulate supply growth. Lower rates of oil demand growth relative to economic growth, combined with more challenging supply growth, will probably lead to an undulating plateau sometime after 2040, with demand from non-Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development states continuing to dominate. Upstream investment requirements and oil price volatility will increase towards and beyond the undulating production plateau. In this new world, high oil prices will induce demand destruction, fuel substitution and ever increasing energy efficiency. As we discuss below, the fundamental differences between the IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' (IHS CERA) view of the future of oil supply and many peak oil supply models are the timing of the onset of a dramatic slowdown in the rate of growth of supply and the existence or otherwise of a production plateau. We do not dispute that supply will plateau and eventually fall; the question is when, how and at what price

  8. Understanding the oil price-exchange rate nexus for the Fiji islands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Prasad, Arti

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we examine the relationship between oil price and the Fiji-US exchange rate using daily data for the period 2000-2006. We use the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) models to estimate the impact of oil price on the nominal exchange rate. We find that a rise in oil prices leads to an appreciation of the Fijian dollar vis-a-vis the US dollar. (author)

  9. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Faculty of Business and Law, Deakin University, 221 Burwood Highway, Burwood, Victoria 3125 (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne (Australia)

    2010-10-15

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  10. European oil refining: strategies for a competitive future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacDonald, James.

    1997-07-01

    European Oil Refining investigates how the industry came to be in crisis and what the future holds. As well as an extensive analysis of past and present market shifts, the report predicts likely future developments and their consequences for investors. The report reviews the European oil sector in a global context, calculates the cost to refiners of key environmental legislation, assesses the problems caused by changing product demand and crude supply, examines possible solutions to the problems of low margins and overcapacity, evaluates the key players' main strategies to increase their competitiveness, analyses the western European oil refining industry by country, details the refinery operations of the major countries of central and eastern Europe, profiles 15 of the major oil companies and estimates the increase in investment required as a result of legislative and demand changes. (author)

  11. Gold and oil futures markets: Are markets efficient?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Zheng, Xinwei; Narayan, Seema

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. (author)

  12. State sells oil and gas shares in Norway - Statoil to stock exchange list

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kimpanpaeae, M.

    2001-01-01

    After several months debate the government of Norway has decided to sell parts of the national oil-company Staoil as well as state-owned gas and oil shares. The government has stated that in the first stage it would be possible to privatize 20% of the Statoil. The market value of Staoil in summer 1999 was estimated to 120 billion NOK and the value has been estimated to increase ever since. The same proposal includes selling 20% of the national oil and gas shares SDOEE. 15 % would be sold to Statoil before listing the company into the stock exchange and the rest to Norsk Hydro and other national and international companies. The remaining share, the value of which is about 500 billion NOK, will become a part of a new state-owned company. The oil and energy ministry of Norway has estimated that the market value of SDOEE is about 600 billion NOK. Advisory committee decided to increase the share to be sold of SDOEE to 21.5%, the share of other companies being 6.5%. SDOEE was grounded in 1985. Since then a part of the oil and gas income of Statoil has gone into the balances of Statoil and another part directly to the state. Statoil has been responsible for the oil and gas sales of SDOEE. SDOEE's gas and oil reserves have been estimated to be about 9.8 billion barrels, 35% of which is oil and the rest natural gas. A new independent state owned company will be founded for transport of natural gas as a part of the change process. Oil companies and other energy companies will deliver the natural gas also in the future. In addition to the national arrangements, the EU's gas market directive will lead to changes in the Norwegian gas sales. As a part of the European Economic Area Norway will put the EU's gas markets directive into force without any transition period. The directive will decrease the price of natural gas and hence the income of Norway from natural gas is estimated to decrease significantly. At the moment the sales company GFU is responsible for organizing the

  13. The near future prospects of Russian oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehtimaeki, H.

    1995-01-01

    The central role of oil, natural gas and coal production in Russian national economy, and the active role of the country in international trade of fuels are well-known facts, the development of which has also remarkable effect on the western industrialised countries - especially due to the disintegration of the former Soviet Union followed by the economical reconstruction. This review deals with the structure of the Russian oil industry and the future prospects of it. (3 tabs.)

  14. Analyzing Oil Futures with a Dynamic Nelson-Siegel Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Niels Strange; Lunde, Asger

    In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze and forec......In this paper we are interested in the term structure of futures contracts on oil. The objective is to specify a relatively parsimonious model which explains data well and performs well in a real time out of sample forecasting. The dynamic Nelson-Siegel model is normally used to analyze...... and forecast interest rates of different maturities. The structure of oil futures resembles the structure of interest rates and this motivates the use of this model for our purposes. The data set is vast and the dynamic Nelson-Siegel model allows for a significant dimension reduction by introducing three...

  15. Transportation in the future : blind side of the oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schipper, L.

    2002-01-01

    The first oil embargo of 1974 and the oil crisis of 1979/1980 demonstrated that of all sectors, the transportation sector is the most threatened by abrupt changes in fuel prices. For that reason, the International Energy Agency (IEA) and member countries have strived to develop a good set of analytical tools for forecasting future energy demand in transportation. This presentation addressed issues regarding oil demand and explained why it may never be the same. Oil demand has been changed by the imposition of fuel economy standards in North America, voluntary agreements to limit fuel consumption in Europe, and the freight related component. Motor vehicle ownership is growing significantly in developing countries. Neither oil problems nor carbon dioxide emissions will slow that growth for a long time to come. Traffic congestion and pollution are major problems in most of the developing world. Therefore, policies to save oil or reduce carbon dioxide emissions should be integrated with strategies to improve transportation and clean the air in developing countries. New incentives may include clean vehicles, fuel efficiency, clean and low carbon fuels, and transportation planning. The paper also described how information technology, such as use of the Internet, is a low energy product that can boost economic activity and which in the future, may have a broader impact on transportation. It was concluded that while transportation energy is driven by economic growth, it can be impacted by higher prices and by energy policies. 16 figs

  16. The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soleille, S.

    2004-01-01

    The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

  17. The future of oil: unconventional fossil fuels.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chew, Kenneth J

    2014-01-13

    Unconventional fossil hydrocarbons fall into two categories: resource plays and conversion-sourced hydrocarbons. Resource plays involve the production of accumulations of solid, liquid or gaseous hydro-carbons that have been generated over geological time from organic matter in source rocks. The character of these hydrocarbons may have been modified subsequently, especially in the case of solids and extra-heavy liquids. These unconventional hydrocarbons therefore comprise accumulations of hydrocarbons that are trapped in an unconventional manner and/or whose economic exploitation requires complex and technically advanced production methods. This review focuses primarily on unconventional liquid hydro-carbons. The future potential of unconventional gas, especially shale gas, is also discussed, as it is revolutionizing the energy outlook in North America and elsewhere.

  18. Impact of Oil Price Shocks and Exchange Rate Volatility on Stock Market Behavior in Nigeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adedoyin I. Lawal

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The impact of exchange rate and oil prices fluctuation on the stock market has been a subject of hot debate among researchers. This study examined the impact of both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility on stock market volatility in Nigeria, so as to guide policy formulation based on the fact that the nation’s economy was foreign induced and mono-cultured with heavy dependence on oil. EGARCH estimation techniques were employed to examine if either the volatility in exchange rate, oil price volatility or both experts on stock market volatility in Nigeria. The result shows that share price volatility is induced by both the exchange rate volatility and oil price volatility. Thus, it is recommended that policymakers should pursue policies that tend to stabilize the exchange rate regime on the one hand, and guarantee the net oil exporting position for the economy, that market practitioners should formulate portfolio strategies in such a way that volatility in both exchange rates and oil price will be factored in time when investment decisions are being made.

  19. Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

  20. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the

  1. Modelling future oil production, population and the economy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laherrere, Jean

    2003-07-01

    Most published data on energy, population and the economy are unreliable. In many cases, authors have political motives, selectively choosing data from a wide range of uncertainty to give a desired image. In addition to the uncertainty of the measurements themselves, as in the case of population or the confidentiality of the oil reserves, they often indulge in manipulation. A so-called hedonistic factor distorts the calculation of GDP in the United States; and the definition of the Proved Reserves by the Securities and Exchange Commission gives rise to 'reserve growth'. OPEC misreports its oil reserves because its quotas depend upon the reported reserves, and the reserves were overestimated in the Soviet Union because economic and technical constraints were ignored. Our present culture of eternal growth makes the word 'decline' politically incorrect, but constant growth is unsustainable in a finite world. Growth is the Santa Claus of the modern age who is supposed to provide welfare and retirement for our children and us. All natural events, when measured over their full life, can be modelled under one or more cycles, as in the Fourier analysis. This cyclical nature corresponds with the finite nature of the Universe; everything that is born will die, whether we speak of the solar system, the Earth, or human species. What goes up must come down. The Russian population is already declining and Europe's will soon do so too. This basic understanding was recognised by the celebrated King Hubbert when he made his famous prediction in 1956 that US oil production would peak in 1970. But, in fact, he oversimplified by showing a single peak. In reality, US oil production had a secondary peak (93% of the first one) in 1985, reflecting the entry of Alaskan production, which itself peaked in 1988. A symmetrical oil cycle reflects a large number of independent producers, acting randomly, but in many cases economic and political factors disturb the pattern, giving one or more new

  2. Theoretical investigation of isotope exchange reaction in tritium-contaminated mineral oil in vacuum pump

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dong, Liang; Xie, Yun [Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China); Du, Liang [Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China); School of Radiation Medicine and Protection (SRMP), School for Radiological and Interdisciplinary Sciences (RAD-X), Suzhou 215000 (China); Li, Weiyi [School of Physics and Chemistry, Xihua University, Chengdu 610065 (China); Tan, Zhaoyi, E-mail: zhyitan@126.com [Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621900 (China)

    2015-04-28

    Highlights: • This is the first theoretical investigation about T–H exchange in vacuum oil. • T–H isotope exchange is accomplished through two different change mechanisms. • Isotope exchange is selective, molecules with −OH and −COOH exchange more easily. • The methyl and methylene radicals in waste oil were observed by {sup 1}HNMR. - Abstract: The mechanism of the isotope exchange reaction between molecular tritium and several typical organic molecules in vacuum pump mineral oil has been investigated by density functional theory (DFT), and the reaction rates are determined by conventional transition state theory (TST). The tritium–hydrogen isotope exchange reaction can proceed with two different mechanisms, the direct T–H exchange mechanism and the hyrogenation–dehydrogenation exchange mechanism. In the direct exchange mechanism, the titrated product is obtained through one-step via a four-membered ring hydrogen migration transition state. In the hyrogenation–dehydrogenation exchange mechanism, the T–H exchange could be accomplished by the hydrogenation of the unsaturated bond with tritium followed by the dehydrogenation of HT. Isotope exchange between hydrogen and tritium is selective, and oil containing molecules with −OH and −COOH groups can more easily exchange hydrogen for tritium. For aldehydes and ketones, the ability of T–H isotope exchange can be determined by the hydrogenation of T{sub 2} or the dehydrogenation of HT. The molecules containing one type of hydrogen provide a single product, while the molecules containing different types of hydrogens provide competitive products. The rate constants are presented to quantitatively estimate the selectivity of the products.

  3. [Information exchange via internet--possibilities, limits, future].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmiedl, S; Geishauser, M; Klöppel, M; Biemer, E

    1998-01-01

    Today, the exchange of information in the Internet is dominated by the WWW and e-mail. Discussion groups like mailing lists and newsgroups also permit communication in groups. Information retrieval becomes a crucial challenge in using the Internet. In the field of medicine, three more aspects are of special importance: privacy, legal requirements, and the necessity of transferring large amounts of data. For these problems, today's Internet doesn't provide a sufficient solution yet. Future developments will not only improve the existing services, but also lead to fundamental changes in the transfer technologies: Safer data transfer is to be ensured by new encrypting software together with the planned transfer protocol IPv6. Introducing the new transfer mode ATM will lead to better and resource saving transmission. Computer, telephone and TV networks will grow together, resulting in convergence of media.

  4. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets

  5. Volatility spillover between crude oil and exchange rate: A copula-CARR approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pu, Y. J.; Guo, M. Y.

    2017-11-01

    Oil provides a powerful impetus for modern society's production and life. The influences of oil price fluctuations on socio-economic development are obvious, and it draws more attention from scholars. However, the distribution of oil is highly centralized, which leads to the vast majority of oil trading through foreign trade. As a result, exchange rate plays an important role in the oil business. Study on the relationship between exchange rate and crude oil gradually becomes a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we use copula and CARR model to study correlation structure and relationship between crude oil price and exchange rate. We establish CARR models as marginal models and use five copulas which are Gaussian Copula, Student-t Copula, Gumbel Copula, Clayton Copula and Frank Copula to study the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Furthermore, we use Copula-CARR model with structural breaks to detect the change points in the correlation structure between NYMEX crude oil price range and U. S. Dollar Index range. Empirical results show that the change points are closely related to the actual economic events.

  6. Asian oil refining. Demand growth and deregulation - an uncertain future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sameer Nawaz.

    1996-01-01

    The objective of the report is to identify the most important features of the oil refining industry in Asia. Major developments in consumption patterns changes in regional importance of countries are discussed, highlighting potential future developments. The first chapter introduces the various refining processes and presents a simple model for the analysis of complex refineries. Chapter 2 examines the development of the Asian refining industry against a background of economic growth and analyses trends in consumption of all products in Asian countries. In Chapter 3, the key issues concerning the refining industry are examined, among them the forces driving consumption, including the importance of economic development, and electricity and transport demand. The importance of product imports and international trade is discussed, and the extent of government involvement and the effects of changing retail and market prices are analysed. Chapter 4 looks at the strategies that oil and gas companies are following in the Asian refining industry. Particular significance is attached to the vertical integration of the oil majors, Japanese and Middle Eastern oil companies. A brief overview of the importance of the petrochemical industry is presented. The countries of Asia that are involved in the refining industry are profiled in Chapter 5. The future trend in oil consumption is examined in Chapter 6. There follows a brief discussion of the plans to expand crude refining capacity in the various countries and a forecast of the state of overcapacity which will result. In the final chapter, brief profiles of some of the most important companies in the Asian refining industry are presented, discussing their major activities and future plans. (Author)

  7. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Paul

    1997-01-01

    Hong Kong's first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as 'a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong' fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory's oil industry either. (author)

  8. Hong Kong faces uncertain future as oil supply centre

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDonald, Paul [Pearl Oil Ltd. (Hong Kong)

    1997-09-01

    Hong Kong`s first day under Chinese rule, 1 July 1997, was not exactly auspicious. A celebratory parade organized by the Chinese was washed out by torrential rain, and the grand finale of a firework display, described as `a bold statement..... embodying confidence in the future of Hong Kong` fizzled out when one of the firework barges caught fire. The omens are not necessarily good for the territory`s oil industry either. (author)

  9. Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

    2001-01-01

    We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

  10. The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment: Evidence From Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohd Shahidan Shaari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

  11. An Empirical Analysis of the Price Discovery Function of Shanghai Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Wang Zhen; Liu Zhenhai; Chen Chao

    2007-01-01

    This paper analyzes the role of price discovery of Shanghai fuel oil futures market by using methods, such as unit root test, co-integration test, error correction model, Granger causality test, impulse-response function and variance decomposition. The results showed that there exists a strong relationship between the spot price of Huangpu fuel oil spot market and the futures price of Shanghai fuel oil futures market. In addition, the Shanghai fuel oil futures market exhibits a highly effective price discovery function.

  12. Oil trading manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, D.

    1995-01-01

    This manual provides basic information on all aspects of oil trading. Topics reviewed in Part 1 include physical characteristics and refining and oil pricing arrangements. Part 2 on instruments and markets contains chapters on crude oil markets, product markets, forward and futures contracts, forward paper markets, oil future exchanges, options, swaps and long term oil markets. Part 3 deals with administration and has chapters on operations and logistics, credit control, accounting, taxation of oil trading, contracts and legal and regulatory issues. (UK)

  13. The U.S. dollar exchange rate and the demand for oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schryder, Selien de; Peersman, Gert [Gent Univ. (Belgium). Dept. of Financial Economics

    2013-02-15

    Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the global crude oil price expressed in US dollar. Furthermore, the effect of the US dollar on oil demand tends to be declining over time and, for a subsample of OECD countries, stronger for an appreciation compared to a depreciation of the US dollar.

  14. The U.S. dollar exchange rate and the demand for oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schryder, Selien de; Peersman, Gert

    2013-01-01

    Using recent advances in panel data estimation techniques, we find that an appreciation of the US dollar exchange rate leads to a significant decline in oil demand for a sample of 65 oil-importing countries. The estimated effect turns out to be much larger than the impact of a shift in the global crude oil price expressed in US dollar. Furthermore, the effect of the US dollar on oil demand tends to be declining over time and, for a subsample of OECD countries, stronger for an appreciation compared to a depreciation of the US dollar.

  15. Theoretical investigation of isotope exchange reaction in tritium-contaminated mineral oil in vacuum pump.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Liang; Xie, Yun; Du, Liang; Li, Weiyi; Tan, Zhaoyi

    2015-04-28

    The mechanism of the isotope exchange reaction between molecular tritium and several typical organic molecules in vacuum pump mineral oil has been investigated by density functional theory (DFT), and the reaction rates are determined by conventional transition state theory (TST). The tritium-hydrogen isotope exchange reaction can proceed with two different mechanisms, the direct T-H exchange mechanism and the hyrogenation-dehydrogenation exchange mechanism. In the direct exchange mechanism, the titrated product is obtained through one-step via a four-membered ring hydrogen migration transition state. In the hyrogenation-dehydrogenation exchange mechanism, the T-H exchange could be accomplished by the hydrogenation of the unsaturated bond with tritium followed by the dehydrogenation of HT. Isotope exchange between hydrogen and tritium is selective, and oil containing molecules with OH and COOH groups can more easily exchange hydrogen for tritium. For aldehydes and ketones, the ability of T-H isotope exchange can be determined by the hydrogenation of T2 or the dehydrogenation of HT. The molecules containing one type of hydrogen provide a single product, while the molecules containing different types of hydrogens provide competitive products. The rate constants are presented to quantitatively estimate the selectivity of the products. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Toth, Ferenc L.; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2006-01-01

    The relationship between oil and nuclear energy in the global energy scene over the past 50 years is analysed. The former nuclear-oil product competition in power generation and various end-use markets is found to have transformed into a complementary relationship. Current concerns associated with both energy sources and related technologies, including price volatility, supply security, geopolitical sensitivity, depletion alarms, and environmental pollution issues for oil, economic performance, operational safety, proliferation, terrorism, radioactive waste disposal, and the resulting public acceptance for nuclear are examined as determinants of their future roles in the world energy balance. An assessment of the long-term prospects for oil and nuclear energy is presented at the scale of a century to support further economic and energy policy analyses. It is the first in-depth study of global energy projections based on a comparative examination of long-term socio-economic scenarios and their coordinated quantifications by a set of integrated energy-economy models

  17. On the link between oil price and exchange rate: A time-varying VAR parameter approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Razafindrabe, Tovonony; Hache, Emmanuel

    2015-07-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationship between the effective exchange rate of the dollar and the oil price dynamics from 1976 to 2013. In this context, we propose to explore the economic literature dedicated to financial channels factors (exchange rate, monetary policy, and international liquidity) that could affect the oil price dynamics. In addition to oil prices and the effective exchange rate of the dollar, we use the dry cargo index as a proxy for the real economic activity and prices for precious and industrial raw materials. Using a Bayesian time-varying parameter vector auto-regressive estimation, our main results show that the US Dollar effective exchange rate elasticity of the crude oil prices is not constant across the time and remains negative from 1989. It then highlights that a depreciation of the effective exchange rate of the dollar leads to an increase of the crude oil prices. Our paper also demonstrates the growing influence of financial and commodities markets development upon the global economy. (authors)

  18. Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil Price, Exchange Rate and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DrNneka

    Second, since Hamilton (1983) documented the impact of crude oil price volatility .... Hariri,2013) sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). .... is explained by identifying the relative importance of a variable in generating.

  19. 76 FR 22939 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-25

    ... SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION [Release No. 34-64153; File No. SR-CFE-2011-002] Self-Regulatory Organizations; CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness of a Proposed Rule Change Relating to Listing and Trading CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index Security Futures...

  20. Future of oil and gas development in the western Amazon

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finer, Matt; Babbitt, Bruce; Novoa, Sidney; Ferrarese, Francesco; Pappalardo, Salvatore Eugenio; Marchi, Massimo De; Saucedo, Maria; Kumar, Anjali

    2015-01-01

    The western Amazon is one of the world’s last high-biodiversity wilderness areas, characterized by extraordinary species richness and large tracts of roadless humid tropical forest. It is also home to an active hydrocarbon (oil and gas) sector, characterized by operations in extremely remote areas that require new access routes. Here, we present the first integrated analysis of the hydrocarbon sector and its associated road-building in the western Amazon. Specifically, we document the (a) current panorama, including location and development status of all oil and gas discoveries, of the sector, and (b) current and future scenario of access (i.e. access road versus roadless access) to discoveries. We present an updated 2014 western Amazon hydrocarbon map illustrating that oil and gas blocks now cover 733 414 km 2 , an area much larger than the US state of Texas, and have been expanding since the last assessment in 2008. In terms of access, we documented 11 examples of the access road model and six examples of roadless access across the region. Finally, we documented 35 confirmed and/or suspected untapped hydrocarbon discoveries across the western Amazon. In the Discussion, we argue that if these reserves must be developed, use of the offshore inland model—a method that strategically avoids the construction of access roads—is crucial to minimizing ecological impacts in one of the most globally important conservation regions. (letter)

  1. A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hosseini, Seyed Hossein; Shakouri, Hamed G.

    2016-01-01

    Fluctuations in the oil global market has been a critical topic for the world economy so that analyzing and forecasting the conventional oil production rate has been examined by many researchers thoroughly. However, the dynamics of the market has not been studied systematically with regard to the new emerging competitors, namely unconventional oil. In this paper, the future trend of conventional and unconventional oil production and capacity expansion rates are analyzed using system dynamics approach. To do so, a supply-side modeling approach is utilized while main effective loops are modeled mathematically as follows: technological learning and progress, long and short-term profitability of oil capacity expansion and production, and oil proved reserve limitations. The proposed model is used to analyze conventional and unconventional oil production shares, up to 2025, under different oil price scenarios. The results show that conventional oil production rate ranges from 79.995 to 87.044 MB/day, which is 75–80 percent of total oil production rate, while unconventional oil production rate ranges from 19.615 to 28.584 MB/day. Simulation results reveal that unconventional oil can gain a considerable market share in the short run, although conventional oil will remain as the major source for the market in the long run. - Highlights: • Variables and loops affecting oil production are formulated mathematically. • Shares of conventional and unconventional oil in the global oil market is analyzed. • Oil production rate under different oil price scenarios up to 2025 is simulated. • Unconventional oil would obtain a considerable share in market in the short-term. • A late peak for the conventional oil resources would occur.

  2. Beyond the exchange--the future of B2B.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wise, R; Morrison, D

    2000-01-01

    Using the Internet to facilitate business-to-business commerce promises many benefits, such as dramatic cost reductions and greater access to buyers and sellers. Yet little is known about how B2B e-commerce will evolve. The authors argue that changes in the financial services industry over the past two decades provide important clues. Exchanges, they say, are not the primary source of value in information-intensive markets; value tends to accumulate among a diverse group of specialists that focus on such tasks as packaging, standard setting, arbitrage, and information management. Because scale and liquidity are vitally important to efficient trading, today's exchanges will consolidate into a relatively small set of mega-exchanges. Originators will handle the origination and aggregation of complex transactions before sending them on to mega-exchanges for execution. E-speculators, seeking to capitalize on an abundance of market information, will tend to concentrate where relatively standardized products can be transferred easily among a large group of buyers. In many markets, a handful of independent solution providers with well-known brand names and solid reputations will thrive alongside mega-exchanges. Sell-side asset exchanges will create the networks and provide the tools to allow suppliers to trade orders among themselves, sometimes after initial transactions with customers are made on the mega-exchanges. For many companies, traditional skills in such areas as product development, manufacturing, and marketing may become relatively less important, while the ability to understand and capitalize on market dynamics may become considerably more important.

  3. Two-component mixture model: Application to palm oil and exchange rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phoong, Seuk-Yen; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Hamzah, Firdaus Mohamad

    2014-12-01

    Palm oil is a seed crop which is widely adopt for food and non-food products such as cookie, vegetable oil, cosmetics, household products and others. Palm oil is majority growth in Malaysia and Indonesia. However, the demand for palm oil is getting growth and rapidly running out over the years. This phenomenal cause illegal logging of trees and destroy the natural habitat. Hence, the present paper investigates the relationship between exchange rate and palm oil price in Malaysia by using Maximum Likelihood Estimation via Newton-Raphson algorithm to fit a two components mixture model. Besides, this paper proposes a mixture of normal distribution to accommodate with asymmetry characteristics and platykurtic time series data.

  4. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    OpenAIRE

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crud...

  5. The flow in an oil/water plate heat exchanger for the automotive industry

    OpenAIRE

    Lozano , A.; Barreras , F.; Fueyo , N.; Santodomingo , S.

    2008-01-01

    The flow in an oil/water plate heat exchanger for the automotive industry correspondence: Corresponding author. Tel.: +34976716463; fax: +34976716456. (Lozano, A.) (Lozano, A.) LITEC/CSIC--> , Mar?'a de Luna 10--> , 50018--> , Zaragoza--> - SPAIN (Lozano, A.) SPAIN (Lozano, A.) LITEC/CSIC--> , Mar?'a de Luna 10--> , 50018--> , Zaragoza--> - S...

  6. The Cushing OK Crude Oil Futures Price Pass - Through to New York Harbor Reformulated RBOB Regular Gasoline Futures Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chu V. Nguyen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This study utilizes an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model to investigate the nature of crude oil futures price pass-through since 2006. The empirical results reveal a very high but incomplete short-run pass-through rate from the crude oil futures price to the gasoline futures price of 0.849298 with a corresponding negative long-run pass-through rate of -0.2440894. These empirical findings suggest that traders in the U.S. oil and gasoline futures markets overreact to fluctuations in the crude oil futures price as evidenced by subsequent corrections made over the sample period. The result of the bounds test for a long-term relationship between these two futures prices is inconclusive. The empirical findings further suggest that U.S. futures market traders considered futures prices of gasoline three weeks earlier in determining the current trading price while taking only one week to respond completely to the shock in the crude oil futures price.  The empirical findings of this investigation may address the core elements of the price dynamics of the crude oil and gasoline futures markets and advance inquiry into assessment tools that could manage a very complex market challenge, especially for policy makers in countries with transitional economies in Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia.

  7. Strategy of Chavez determines oil future of Venezuela

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Widdershoven, C.

    2008-01-01

    The perspective of the oil and gas industry remains unclear as long as the current president, Hugo Chavez, continues to implement his own political ideas. The announcement of another tax increase on high oil revenues of oil companies will significantly weaken the appeal to invest in the oil sector. [mk] [nl

  8. World oil and gas resources-future production realities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masters, C.D.; Root, D.H.; Attanasi, E.D.

    1990-01-01

    Welcome to uncertainty was the phrase Jack Schanz used to introduce both layman and professionals to the maze of petroleum energy data that must be comprehended to achieve understanding of this critical commodity. Schanz was referring to the variables as he and his colleagues with Resources for the Future saw them in those years soon after the energy-awakening oil embargo of 1973. In some respects, the authors have made progress in removing uncertainty from energy data, but in general, we simply must accept that there are many points of view and many ways for the blindman to describe the elephant. There can be definitive listing of all uncertainties, but for this paper the authors try to underscore those traits of petroleum occurrence and supply that the author's believe bear most heavily on the understanding of production and resource availability. Because oil and gas exist in nature under such variable conditions and because the products themselves are variable in their properties, the authors must first recognize classification divisions of the resource substances, so that the reader might always have a clear perception of just what we are talking about and how it relates to other components of the commodity in question

  9. Future sustainability forecasting by exchange markets: basic theory and an application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malyshkina, Nataliya; Niemeier, Deb

    2010-12-01

    Setting sustainability targets and evaluating systems progress are of great importance nowadays due to threats to the human society, to economic development and to ecosystems, posed by unsustainable human activities. This research establishes a probabilistic theoretical approach based on market expectations reflected in prices of publicly traded securities to estimate the time horizon until the appearance of new technologies related to replacement of nonrenewable resources, for example, crude oil and oil products. To assess time T when technological innovations are likely to appear, we apply advanced pricing equations, based on a stochastic discount factor to those traded securities whose future cash flows critically depend on appearance of such innovations. In a simple approximation of the proposed approach applied to replacement of crude oil and oil products, we obtain T ≈ (P(0)(oil)/C(0))·ln (Δ·P(0)(oil)/P(0)(alt)), where P(0)(oil) and P(0)(alt) are the current aggregate market capitalizations of oil and alternative-energy companies, C(0) is the annual aggregate dividends that oil companies pay to their shareholders at the present, and Δ is the fraction of the oil (oil products) replaced at time T. This formula gives T ≈ 131 years for replacement of gasoline and diesel. The proposed market-expectations approach may allow policymakers to effectively develop policies and plan for long-term changes.

  10. Increased oil recovery: secondary and tertiary. Application and future prospect

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Whiting, R L

    1978-01-01

    Oil is initially produced using the nature reservoir pressure present, in a process called primary oil recovery. Secondary recovery uses artificial means to increase the natural reservoir pressure; tertiary, or enhanced oil recovery, uses a number of methods to enhance the flow characteristics of the oil. The scope for such techniques to increase the yield from oil fields in the US is estimated; the practicality of their application is shown to be particularly dependent upon pricing, taxation, and other existing policies. 16 references.

  11. Chemical exchange in biomacromolecules: Past, present, and future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palmer, Arthur G.

    2014-01-01

    The perspective reviews quantitative investigations of chemical exchange phenomena in proteins and other biological macromolecules using NMR spectroscopy, particularly relaxation dispersion methods. The emphasis is on techniques and applications that quantify the populations, interconversion kinetics, and structural features of sparsely populated conformational states in equilibrium with a highly populated ground state. Applications to folding, mol ecular recognition, catalysis, and allostery by proteins and nucleic acids are highlighted. PMID:24656076

  12. Future prospects for palm oil refining and modifications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gibon Véronique

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Palm oil is rich in minor components that impart unique nutritional properties and need to be preserved. In this context, refining technologies have been improved, with the dual temperature deodorizer, the double condensing unit and the ice condensing system. The DOBI is a good tool to assess quality of the crude palm oil and its ability to be properly refined. Specially refined oils open a market for new high quality products (golden palm oil, red palm oil, white soaps, etc.. Palm oil is a good candidate for the multi-step dry fractionation process, aiming to the production of commodity oils and specialty fats (cocoa butter replacers. New technological developments allow quality and yield improvements. Palm oil and fractions are also valuable feedstock for enzymatic interesterification in which applications are for commodity oil (low-trans margarines and shortenings and for special products (cocoa butter equivalents, infant formulation, ….

  13. Modeling of crude oil fouling in preheat exchangers of refinery distillation units

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jafari Nasr, Mohammad Reza; Majidi Givi, Mehdi [National Petrochemical Research and Technology Company (NPC-RT), P.O. Box 14385, Tehran (Iran)

    2006-10-15

    The aim of this paper is to propose a new model for crude oil fouling in preheat exchangers of crude distillation units. The experimental results of Australian light crude oil with the tube side surface temperature between 200 and 260{sup o}C and fluid velocity ranged 0.25-0.4m/s were used [Z. Saleh, R. Sheikholeslami, A.P. Watkinson, Heat exchanger fouling by a light australian crude oil, in: Heat Exchanger Fouling and Cleaning Fundamentals and Applications, Santa Fe, 2003]. The amount of activation energy depends on the surface temperature has been calculated. A new model including a term for fouling formation and a term for fouling removal due to chemical and tube wall shear stress was proposed, respectively. The main superiority of the model are independent to Pr number, thermal fouling removal and determination of {beta} based on experimental tests. Finally using the proposed model the fouling rate of Australian light crude oil has been calculated and the threshold curves to identify fouling and no fouling formation zones have been drawn. (author)

  14. FORWARD, FUTURE AND OPTIONS ON STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET

    OpenAIRE

    Ljiljana Stošić Mihajlović; Ivana Zdravković

    2016-01-01

    The main motive of the formation and use of forward contracts and futures, and options, was certainly profit. Making financial markets more efficient, in terms of expanding the range of available financial instruments and reduction in transaction costs, these financial innovations are beneficial for both investors and managers company. Primary purpose of derivatives such as forwards, futures and options is to enable control risks by investitures and primarily from inadequate price trend...

  15. The Future of the Automobile in an Oil-Short World. Worldwatch Paper 32.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Lester R.; And Others

    Possible future roles and designs of cars are examined in light of depletion of the earth's oil reserves. A major problem with regard to the rapidly changing world oil outlook is that cars will be competing with more essential claiments for scarce oil supplies including food production, industrial power, home heating, and running trucks and…

  16. Is Estonian oil shale beneficial in the future?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reinsalu, Enno

    1998-01-01

    Oil shale mining production reached its maximum level of 31.35·10 6 tonnes per year in 1980. After the eighties there was a steady decline in mining. The first scientific prognoses of the inescapable decrease in oil shale mining were published in 1988. According to this, the Estonian oil shale industry would vanish in the third decade of the next century. From the beginning of the nineties, the consumption and export of electricity have dropped in Estonia. The minimum level of oil shale mining was 13.5·10 6 tonnes per year. This occurred in 1994/1995. Some increase in consumption of electric power and oil shale began at the end of 1995. Oil shale processing began to increase gradually in 1993. Oil shale is the most important fuel in Estonia today. In 1997, oil shale provided 76% of Estonia's primary energy supply and accounted for 57% of its economic value. Oil shale is the cheapest fuel in Estonia. Nowadays, oil shale provides an essential part of the fuel supply in Estonia because it is considerably cheaper than other fuels. Oil shale costs EEK 12.16 per G J. At the same time, coal costs EEK 23.41 per G J and peat costs EEK 14.80 per G J (year 1997). There are three important customers of oil shale: the electric power company Eesti Energia, the oil processing company Kiviter and the factory Kunda Nordic Cement. In 1995, the power company utilised 81% of the oil shale mass and 77% of its heating value. The state energy policy inhibits increases in the oil shale price even though the mining infrastructure is decaying. Government price policies subside oil shale processing. The energy of oil shale processing is 1.9 times cheaper than the heating value of raw oil shale for power stations. It could be considered as a state subsidisation of oil and cement export at the expense of electricity. The subsidy assigned to oil processing was of EEK 124·10 6 and to the cement industry of EEK 8.4·10 6 in year 1997 (based on heating value). State regulation of prices and

  17. Research on the trend of Yen exchange rate and international crude oil price fluctuation affected by Japan’s earthquake

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoguang Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Whether this earthquake would become a turning point of the high oil price and whether it would have big impact on yen exchange rate are two issues to be discussed in this paper.Design/methodology/approach: To analyze deeply the internal relations between changes in yen exchange rate caused by Japan’s earthquake and price fluctuation of international crude oil, this research chooses middle rate of yen exchange rate during the 45 days around Japan’s earthquake and price data of international crude oil to do an empirical study, uses VAR model and HP trend decomposition to estimate the mutual effect of yen exchange rate change and price fluctuation of international crude oil in this period.Findings: It has been found in the empirical study with VAR model and HP filter decomposition model on the yen exchange rate and the international crude oil price fluctuation during 45 days around Japan’s earthquake that: the fluctuation of yen exchange rate around the earthquake is one of the main reasons for the drastic fluctuation of international crude oil price in that period. The fluctuation of international crude oil price directly triggered by yen exchange rate occupies 13.54% of its total variance. There is a long-term interactive relationship between yen exchange rate and international crude oil price. The upward trend of international crude oil price after the earthquake was obvious, while yen exchange rate remained relatively stable after the earthquake.Originality/value: As economic globalization goes deeper, the influence of natural disasters on international financial market and world economy will become more and more obvious. It has a great revelatory meaning to studying further each kind of natural disaster’s impacts on international financial market and world economics.

  18. Future role of Gulf oil in world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eltony, M.N.

    1998-01-01

    The view that there will be a growing dependence on oil from the Gulf countries is shared by a great number of oil market analysts. This view is based on the fact that Gulf countries dominate the global oil reserves. Energy analyst argue that as the world demand for oil continues to grow driven largely by the growth in developing countries' consumption coupled with constrained non-OPEC supply, the end result will be that the call on Gulf oil will grow substantially. In summary, this paper has challenged the view of growing dependence on oil from the Gulf using available information in conjunction with reasonable and fairly plausible arguments. The aim was to point out to the GCC member counties the danger of relying on these views in shaping their economic policies and in setting their oil market strategies. They may run the ultimate risk of being left with huge oil reserves that no one wants. (orig.)

  19. Crude operators: the future of the oil industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowell, Andrew.

    1997-01-01

    Technological advances and the maturity of existing oil fields have spurred oil companies to explore for oil and extract it from previously inaccessible or ''frontier'' areas, both offshore and onshore. In many cases, such prospecting and production will have severe environmental impacts and serious social, ethical and cultural consequences. The challenge is not just to halt such exploration and extraction, but to halt oil consumption itself. (author)

  20. The Security Impact of Oil Nationalization: Alternate Futures Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peter Johnston

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the security impact of oil nationalization, develops and analyzes four energy security scenarios, and suggests options to reduce the potential negative impact of oil nationalization. In addition to the use of oil as a weapon, nationalization of oil can also lead to competition for scarce resources among states, facilitate the funding of terrorists or insurgents, contribute to destabilizing regional arms races, influence intra-state conflict, and sustain antagonistic political agendas.

  1. International exchange of radiological information in the event of a nuclear accident - future perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De-Cort, M.; De-Vries, G.; Breitenbach, L.; Leeb, H.; Weiss, W.

    1996-01-01

    Immediately after the Chernobyl accident most European countries established or enhanced their national radioactivity monitoring and information systems. The large transboundary effect of the radioactive release also triggered the need for bilateral and international agreements on the exchange of radiological information in case of a nuclear accident. Based on the experiences gained from existing bi- and multilateral data exchange the Commission of the European Communities has made provision for and is developing technical systems to exchange information of common interest. Firstly the existing national systems and systems based on bilateral agreements are summarized. The objectives and technical realizations of the EC international information exchange systems ECURIE and EURDEP, are described. The experiences gained over the past few years and the concepts for the future, in which central and eastern European countries will be included, are discussed. The benefits that would result from improving the international exchange of radiological information in the event of a future nuclear accident are further being described

  2. The empirical role of the exchange rate on the crude-oil price formation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, A.; Wirjanto, T.S.; University of Waterloo, Ont.

    2004-01-01

    This paper adopts a novel empirical approach to the crude-oil price formation for the purpose of understanding the price reactions of OPEC member countries to changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar against other major currencies and prices of other members. The results are broadly consistent with the view of the absence of a unified OPEC determined price in the international crude market literature. In addition, the results also highlight a cross regional dimension of the crude oil market. (author)

  3. Technological aspects of vegetable oils epoxidation in the presence of ion exchange resins: a review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milchert Eugeniusz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A review paper of the technology basics of vegetable oils epoxidation by means of peracetic or performic acid in the presence of acidic ion exchange resins has been presented. The influence of the following parameters: temperature, molar ratio of acetic acid and hydrogen peroxide to ethylenic unsaturation, catalyst loading, stirring intensity and the reaction time on a conversion of ethylenic unsaturation, the relative percentage conversion to oxirane and the iodine number was discussed. Optimal technological parameters, mechanism of epoxidation by carboxylic peracids and the possibilities of catalyst recycling have been also discussed. This review paper shows the application of epoxidized oils.

  4. FORWARD, FUTURE AND OPTIONS ON STOCK EXCHANGE MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ljiljana Stošić Mihajlović

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The main motive of the formation and use of forward contracts and futures, and options, was certainly profit. Making financial markets more efficient, in terms of expanding the range of available financial instruments and reduction in transaction costs, these financial innovations are beneficial for both investors and managers company. Primary purpose of derivatives such as forwards, futures and options is to enable control risks by investitures and primarily from inadequate price trends for all types of assets that could be subject to transactions in financial markets.

  5. The Parallel Market for Foreign Exchange in an Oil Exporting Economy; The Case of Iran, 1978-1990

    OpenAIRE

    Adnan Mazarei

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides a model for the determination of the parallel market exchange rate premium in a country where oil export earnings accrue directly to the government, and foreign exchange is centrally allocated for the importation of specific goods. Next, it studies the parallel market for foreign exchange In the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 1978-90. The paper then examines the various time series properties of parallel market exchange rate in Iran, and the evidence of the rol...

  6. Exchange rate volatility and oil prices shocks and its impact on economic sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khuram Shaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Impact of exchange rate volatility has received a great attention from the last century, its importance is certain in all sectors of the economy and it affects welfare as well as social life of the economy. Exchange rate between two currencies tells the value of one currency in terms of others one. Depreciation/Appreciation of exchange rate affects economic growth in terms of trade and shifts income to/from exporting countries from/to importing countries. The factors affecting exchange rate are inflation, interest rate, foreign direct investment, government consumption expenditure and balance of trade. This research study examines the impact of oil prices and exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Germany based on 40-year annual data. Cointegration technique is applied to check the impact of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in the long run and short run. It is estimated that imports, exports, inflation, interest rate, government consumption expenditure and foreign direct investment had significant impacts on real effective exchange rate in the long run and short run. Sin addition, Engle Granger results indicate that relationship was significant for the long run and its error correction adjustment mechanism (ECM in short a run is significant and correctly signed for Germany.

  7. The future of oil and bioethanol in Brazil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moreira, Jose R.; Pacca, Sergio A.; Parente, Virginia

    2014-01-01

    This work compares the return on investments (ROI) of oil versus biofuels in Brazil. Although several renewable energy sources might displace oil, the country's forte is sugarcane biofuels. In our analysis we carry out simplified benefit–cost analyses of producing oil fields, pre-salt oil fields (without and with enhanced oil recovery), a business as the usual ethanol scenario, and a high ethanol scenario. Excluding the ROI from existing oil fields, which is the highest, when the discount rate is 4% or more, the ROI of the high ethanol scenario is greater than that of the ROI of pre-salt oil. Considering a US$40/t CO 2 tax, the high ethanol scenario's ROI is greater than the pre-salt oil's ROI if a discount rate of 2% or more is adopted. Moreover, the high ethanol scenario throughput up to 2070 compares to 97% of the pre-salt oil reserve without EOR, and demands 78% of its investment. Pre-salt oil production declines beyond 2042 when the country might become a net oil importer. In contrast, ethanol production reaches 2.1 million boe per day, and another 0.9 million boe of fossil demand is displaced through bioelectricity, yielding a total of 3 million boe (62% of the country's oil demand). - Highlights: • Cost-benefit analyses of pre-salt and biofuels in Brazil. • Hubbert model applied to pre-salt oil reserves. • Sustainable energy scenarios. • Carbon mitigation accounting based on biofuel scenarios. • Enhanced oil recovery effect on pre-salt oil reserves

  8. Market Efficiency of Oil Spot and Futures: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using a stochastic dominance (SD) approach. As there is no evidence of an SD relationship between oil spot and futures, we conclude that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, and that both

  9. Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

    2015-10-01

    In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

  10. Devise of an exhaust gas heat exchanger for a thermal oil heater in a palm oil refinery plant

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chucherd, Panom; Kittisupakorn, Paisan

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents the devise of an exhaust gas heat exchanger for waste heat recovery of the exhausted flue gas of palm oil refinery plant. This waste heat can be recovered by installing an economizer to heat the feed water which can save the fuel consumption of the coal fired steam boiler and the outlet temperature of flue gas will be controlled in order to avoid the acid dew point temperature and protect the filter bag. The decrease of energy used leads to the reduction of CO2 emission. Two designed economizer studied in this paper are gas in tube and water in tube. The gas in tube exchanger refers to the shell and tube heat exchanger which the flue gas flows in tube; this designed exchanger is used in the existing unit. The new designed water in tube refers to the shell and tube heat exchanger which the water flows in the tube; this designed exchanger is proposed for new implementation. New economizer has the overall coefficient of heat transfer of 19.03 W/m2.K and the surface heat transfer area of 122 m2 in the optimized case. Experimental results show that it is feasible to install economizer in the exhaust flue gas system between the air preheater and the bag filter, which has slightly disadvantage effect in the system. The system can raise the feed water temperature from 40 to 104°C and flow rate 3.31 m3/h, the outlet temperature of flue gas is maintained about 130 °C.

  11. Shanghai Futures Exchange Incorporates Nickel & Tin to Finish Adjustment of Nonferrous Metal Index

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2015-01-01

    After close of trading on August 12,the nonferrous metal futures price index adjustment&optimization; work of Shanghai Futures Exchange was completed and formally took effect.The new compilation plan incorporated two newly marketed varieties of nickel and tin,and made adjustment and optimization in

  12. The wells of the Lipinki oil field in the aspect of borehole heat exchangers retrained

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Gonet

    2006-10-01

    Full Text Available Geological conditions of the Gorlice-Lipinki structure are presented in the paper. The construction of a well in the Lipinki oil field was characterized on this basis. The authors analysed an adaptability of the wells intothe borehole heat exchangers (BHE with its potential heating power estimation on the basis of an example. In the article, a discussion of the heat consumer choose, which can be buildings by a local communite utilization.

  13. Synthesis of biodiesel from pongamia oil using heterogeneous ion-exchange resin catalyst.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jaya, N; Selvan, B Karpanai; Vennison, S John

    2015-11-01

    Biodiesel is a clean-burning renewable substitute fuel for petroleum. Biodiesel could be effectively produced by transesterification reaction of triglycerides of vegetable oils with short-chain alcohols in the presence of homogeneous or heterogeneous catalysts. Conventionally, biodiesel manufacturing processes employ strong acids or bases as catalysts. But, separation of the catalyst and the by-product glycerol from the product ester is too expensive to justify the product use as an automobile fuel. Hence heterogeneous catalysts are preferred. In this study, transesterification of pongamia oil with ethanol was performed using a solid ion-exchange resin catalyst. It is a macro porous strongly basic anion exchange resin. The process parameters affecting the ethyl ester yield were investigated. The reaction conditions were optimized for the maximum yield of fatty acid ethyl ester (FAEE) of pongamia oil. The properties of FAEE were compared with accepted standards of biodiesel. Engine performance was also studied with pongamia oil diesel blend and engine emission characteristics were observed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mining and oil. Oil shale's contribution to future oil supply; Bergbau und Oel. Der Beitrag des Oelschiefers zur Oelversorgung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Linden, Eike von der [Linden Advisory, Dreieich (Germany)

    2012-05-15

    Crude oil contributes in Germany and globally approximately one third to the consumption of primary energies and actually is and in the foreseeable future will be the most important energy source. Recently shale oil as an unconventional oil has gained attention in public discussions. Depending on temperatures oil shale contains either already matured fluid shale oil or immature waxy kerogen. For determination of kerogen containing oil shale and shale oil common definitions for fluid hydrocarbons will be presented. Fluid hydrocarbons (molecular chains > C{sub 5}H{sub 12}) originate from animal substance which had been settled millions of years in sediments on sea- or lakebeds under anaerobic conditions. High pressure and high temperatures effect conversion to hydrocarbons. With sufficient permeability the liquid hydrocarbons migrate from the sediment as the source rock and get assembled in porous rocks under the cover of an impermeable rock strata, in so called entrapment structures. In case there is no impermeable rock strate the hydrocarbons will diffuse into the atmosphere. The hydrocarbons in entrapment structures are called conventional oil and are extracted by drilling wells. The extractable oil as part of the oil in place depends on the viscosity of the oil, the permeability of the host rock and applied exploitation methods which can affect pressure, viscosity and permeability. The exploitation achieves 30 to 50% of the oil in place. When the source rock consisting of strata hundreds of meters thick is not sufficiently permeable the matured hydrocarbons remain at its place of origination. These hydrocarbons are called shale oil and belong to the unconventional oil resources. For exploitation of shale oil by wells the source rock must be treated by intensive energy input, amongst others, by fracking which creates artificial permeability and by pressure which affects migration of the hydrocarbons to the well. The exploitation methods for shale oil do not

  15. Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve: the case of oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, A.; Wirjanto, T.S.

    2003-01-01

    This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries' import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia's long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia. (author)

  16. Exchange rate of the US dollar and the J curve. The case of oil exporting countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yousefi, Ayoub; Wirjanto, Tony S.

    2003-01-01

    This study examines the effects of changes in the exchange rate of the US dollar on the trade balances of three oil-exporting countries, namely Iran, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia. An exchange rate pass-through model is applied to allow changes in the exchange rate of the dollar to affect prices of traded goods. Then, the impact of changes in prices on the quantities of imports and exports of these economies is estimated. The results suggest a partial exchange rate pass-through to these countries' import and export prices in terms of the US dollar. While the three countries raise the price of their primary export (namely crude oil) in response to a depreciation of the dollar, Saudi Arabia's long-run pricing strategy in securing a larger market share stands in contrast to that of the two other OPEC members. The sum of the estimated long-run price elasticities of demand for imports and exports is found to exceed unity for Iran and Venezuela, but less than unity for Saudi Arabia

  17. Oil and the world economy: some possible futures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumhof, Michael; Muir, Dirk

    2014-01-13

    This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

  18. An investigation on how to estimate future cash flows: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Roghayeh Ahmdi Panah Banad Koki; Iman Jokar

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical investigation to predict future cash flows using present cash flow and accruals using the information of 96 selected firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2007-2011. The proposed study uses linear regression techniques to forecast future cash flow and the results indicate that cash flow and accruals together could provide more power to forecast cash flow. In addition, accrual provides future cash flow better than cash flow. The survey also perf...

  19. Unbiasedness and time varying risk premia in the crude oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moosa, I.A.; Al-Loughani, N.E.

    1994-01-01

    This paper presents some empirical evidence on market efficiency and unbiasedness in the crude oil futures market and some related issues. On the basis of monthly observations on spot and futures prices of the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, several tests are carried out on the relevant hypotheses. The evidence suggests that futures prices are neither unbiased nor efficient forecasters of spot prices. Furthermore, a GARCH-M(1,1) model reveals the existence of a time varying risk premium. (author)

  20. Testing market efficiency of crude palm oil futures to European participants

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, Xing

    2009-01-01

    Palm oil is the most consumed and traded vegetable oils in the EU and the world. Increasing non-food uses for vegetable oils in especially feedstock of biofuels in recent years have caused the price volatility to rise in both EU and global market. The most efficient pricing of crude palm oil (CPO) is to found on Bursa Malaysia (BMD), and it provides by far the world’s most liquid palm oil contract. The goal of this study is to investigate CPO futures market efficiency of BMD for the European ...

  1. Oil and Gas in the Netherlands - Is there a future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herber, R.; de Jager, J.

    The impact of oil and, in particular, gas fields discovered in the Dutch subsurface has been very significant. However, 50 years after the discovery of the giant Groningen gas field the Netherlands has become very mature for exploration of oil and gas, and the gas volume left to be discovered in

  2. Future oil supply to the Northeast United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bronheim, H.

    1976-06-01

    The Northeast consumed some 4.6 million bbls/day of petroleum products in 1972. Nearly 63 percent of that supply was of foreign origin, making the Northeast the single largest oil-importing region in the nation. The remainder of its supply originated mainly in states on the Gulf of Mexico. The phasing out of coal as a major utility boiler fuel and curtailment of natural gas sales to the Northeast have led to the rapid increase in the use of petroleum products. Nationwide oil production reached a peak of 11.3 million bbls/day in 1970 and has been declining yearly ever since. The Northeast in particular has led the movement to foreign imports because of its coastal location, its distance from domestic sources, the competitive pricing of foreign oils, and because of environmental considerations. Under various assumptions of total U.S. reserves of oil (discovered and undiscovered) coupled to alternate schedules of national resource development, projections of crude oil production were made for the years 1985 and 2000. The projections indicate that even under optimistic conditions crude oil production will be declining in the post-1985 period, if not earlier. The scenarios consistently indicate that the Northeast's regional share will be heavily constrained by 1985, and rapidly declining thereafter. On the other hand, production of oil worldwide will concentrate further in the hands of the Arab OPEC nations who are likely to exercise growing control over pricing and the international supply of crude oil.

  3. The future of the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1998-01-01

    Changes are under way that are moving the oil and gas industry in Norway toward the creation of global energy companies in a global energy market. According to the author, three key forces are creating the changes of oil and gas companies comprising a global market for energy, growing demand - ample supply, and the end-user. 5 figs

  4. Exchange Rates’ Effect on Spot and Futures Equity Index Markets: A Study on Borsa Istanbul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ayben Koy

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the linkages between the foreign exchange rates, spot equity index and equity index futures. The study aims to investi-gate whether there is difference between the spot and futures markets in the scope of relation with the foreign exchange rates’ returns and which leads the other. The relationships are examined by using the vector autoregression (VAR model, impulse-response functions, variance decomposition and Granger Causality tests. The sample of the study consists of US dollar to Turkish Lira rate (USD/TRY, Euro to Turkish Lira rate (EUR/TRY, BIST 30 Index and BIST 30 Index Futures. The data of the study includes the period between January 2011 and December 2014 with daily data range. Our results have evidence that the foreign exchange rate markets in Turkey are driven by the equity market.

  5. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  6. The heavy oil refiners needs in the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sauer, J.W.

    1991-01-01

    In the 1970s oil crisis, the high price differential that developed between heavy and light crude led to an expansion in heavy crude processing geared to producing light oil products. The subsequent collapse in prices meant that heavy crudes with low netbacks were shut in, heavy crude refining capacity exceeded the restrained production of heavy crudes, and refineries were operating at losses. However, the low prices for oil rekindled demand and spare production capacity has been absorbed. The crude oil price is forecast to rise to ca $27/bbl by the late 1990s, which is favorable for heavy crude oil production. Nevertheless, investments in heavy crude production are exposed to a high degree of risk. A strategy for dealing with this risk is to integrate into downstream, which makes more sense for heavy crude producers than for conventional producers. On the other hand, such integration is capital-intensive, and light oils will likely be favored in crude oil production developments for the next several years. Low prices for natural gas will make it hard to find markets for residual fuel made from heavy crudes. 8 figs

  7. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi; McAleer, Michael; Wong, Wing-Keung

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  8. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  9. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  10. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures: A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and, Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung, E-mail: awong@hkbu.edu.h [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (Hong Kong)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification.

  11. Market efficiency of oil spot and futures. A mean-variance and stochastic dominance approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lean, Hooi Hooi [Economics Program, School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malaysia); McAleer, Michael [Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam (Netherlands); Wong, Wing-Keung [Department of Economics, Hong Kong Baptist University (China); Tinbergen Institute (Netherlands)

    2010-09-15

    This paper examines the market efficiency of oil spot and futures prices by using both mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD) approaches. Based on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil data for the sample period 1989-2008, we find no evidence of any MV and SD relationships between oil spot and futures indices. This infers that there is no arbitrage opportunity between these two markets, spot and futures do not dominate one another, investors are indifferent to investing spot or futures, and the spot and futures oil markets are efficient and rational. The empirical findings are robust to each sub-period before and after the crises for different crises, and also to portfolio diversification. (author)

  12. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  13. Oil sands: Strategies for future development - An overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildirim, E.

    1995-01-01

    The Alberta Chamber of Resources developed a Task Force in 1993 to promote oil sands development, and to identify and publicize the social and economic benefits of oil sands operations. Formation, mission of the National Task Force, impediments and opportunities for development were summarized. Attributes of oil sands, benefits of their development, impediments to development, strategic development and potential growth scenarios were discussed. Cooperation between government and industry was deemed essential. Recommendations included development of a bitumen pipeline network, provision of incentives to encourage development, encouragement of risk and reward sharing between bitumen producers and up graders, and diversification of products and by-products. 7 figs., 12 refs

  14. The macroeconomic effects of oil shocks under fixed and flexible exchange rates - a comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harvie, C.

    1993-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to explore further, from a primarily theoretical perspective, the macroeconomic implications arising for an oil-producing economy operating with either a fixed or flexible exchange rate system - to explore, in particular, which of these two extreme systems best offers insulatory properties, in the sense of reducing the volatility of adjustment of key macroeconomic variables arising primarily from oil-related shocks. The issue is explored by analyzing a theoretical framework, which emphasizes the long-run nature of the adjustment process. Such an emphasis is particularly pertinent in models which assume that economic agents possess rational expectations, where long-run equilibrium will have a major bearing upon the short-run adjustment process itself. However, due to the complexity of the model developed here, it is not possible to derive analytical unambiguous results, hence emphasis is placed upon deriving results through numerical simulation. The results derived enable an identification to be made of the importance, for policy purposes, of implementing an appropriate exchange rate system for oil producing and exporting economics with the characteristics emphasised in this paper. (3 figures). (Author)

  15. Past, Present, and Future Production of Bio-oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steele, Philip; Yu, Fei; Gajjela, Sanjeev

    2009-04-01

    Bio-oil is a liquid product produced by fast pyrol-ysis of biomass. The fast pyrolysis is performed by heating the biomass rapidly (2 sec) at temperatures ranging from 350 to 650 oC. The vapors produced by this rapid heating are then condensed to produce a dark brown water-based emulsion composed of frag-ments of the original hemicellulose, cellulose and lignin molecules contained in the biomass. Yields range from 60 to 75% based on the feedstock type and the pyrolysis reactor employed. The bio-oil pro-duced by this process has a number of negative prop-erties that are produced mainly by the high oxygen content (40 to 50%) contributed by that contained in water (25 to 30% of total mass) and oxygenated compounds. Each bio-oil contains hundreds of chemi-cal compounds. The chemical composition of bio-oil renders it a very recalcitrant chemical compound. To date, the difficulties in utilizing bio-oil have limited its commercial development to the production of liq-uid smoke as food flavoring. Practitioners have at-tempted to utilize raw bio-oil as a fuel; they have also applied many techniques to upgrade bio-oil to a fuel. Attempts to utilize raw bio-oil as a combustion engine fuel have resulted in engine or turbine dam-age; however, Stirling engines have been shown to successfully combust raw bio-oil without damage. Utilization of raw bio-oil as a boiler fuel has met with more success and an ASTM standard has recently been released describing bio-oil characteristics in relation to assigned fuel grades. However, commercialization has been slow to follow and no reports of distribution of these bio-oil boiler fuels have been reported. Co-feeding raw bio-oil with coal has been successfully performed but no current power generation facilities are following this practice. Upgrading of bio-oils to hydrocarbons via hydroprocessing is being performed by several organizations. Currently, limited catalyst life is the obstacle to commercialization of this tech-nology. Researchers

  16. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J

    1996-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  17. Oil and the future: Taking bearings in the greenhouse in a post Brent Spar world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leggett, J.

    1995-12-31

    The paper discusses future oil combustion. A greenhouse-related environmental driving-force seems set to emerge in the capital markets in the years ahead. This will severely compound other already serious environment-related financial problems blighting the oil-industry`s access to capital radar screen. The wise oil company is now, increasingly clearly, the company thinking about how to begin repositioning itself for the twenty-first century as a total energy company. 6 refs.

  18. Forecasting volatility and spillovers in crude oil spot, forward and future markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2009-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  19. Analyzing and Forecasting Volatility Spillovers and Asymmetries in Major Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); R. Tansuchat (Roengchai)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractCrude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at-Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas

  20. Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on gold, crude oil and foreign exchange rate time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pal, Mayukha; Madhusudana Rao, P.; Manimaran, P.

    2014-12-01

    We apply the recently developed multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis method to investigate the cross-correlation behavior and fractal nature between two non-stationary time series. We analyze the daily return price of gold, West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oil, foreign exchange rate data, over a period of 18 years. The cross correlation has been measured from the Hurst scaling exponents and the singularity spectrum quantitatively. From the results, the existence of multifractal cross-correlation between all of these time series is found. We also found that the cross correlation between gold and oil prices possess uncorrelated behavior and the remaining bivariate time series possess persistent behavior. It was observed for five bivariate series that the cross-correlation exponents are less than the calculated average generalized Hurst exponents (GHE) for q0 and for one bivariate series the cross-correlation exponent is greater than GHE for all q values.

  1. Jojoba oil: A state of the art review and future prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sánchez, Marcos; Avhad, Mangesh R.; Marchetti, Jorge M.; Martínez, Mercedes; Aracil, José

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Jojoba oil is a unique oil formed by long esters instead of triglycerides. • Jojoba cake is gaining interest because of the extraction of valuable chemicals. • Jojoba oil heterogeneous-catalyzed methanolysis makes the process more profitable. - Abstract: Jojoba oil, which is derived from the extraction of Jojoba seed, has a peculiar molecular structure in comparison with the rest of conventional oils. Jojoba oil is formed by long monounsaturated esters whereas the rest of the oils are usually composed by triglycerides. This unconventional structure confers to Jojoba oil unique properties and characteristics that are very valuable for fine chemical industry and for the production of pharmaceuticals. In addition, Jojoba oil can be an excellent source of fatty acid alkyl esters or biodiesel after the transesterification process and the purification steps. This review presents general information about the production of Jojoba oil and its derivatives, its composition, oil extraction process and the applications of this oil when it is used directly or after chemical transformation as well as the possible purposes of Jojoba meal after extraction. In addition, this paper contemplates the advantages and disadvantages of the use of homogeneous and heterogeneous catalysts for the Jojoba oil transesterification as well as different methods to obtain long monounsaturated alcohols, which have pharmaceutical applications, after being separated from biodiesel. The properties of the products derived from the transesterification of Jojoba oil are broadly discussed. Moreover, this review suggests future research opportunities such as a possible biorefinery using Jojoba oil as main raw material, supercritical methods and simultaneous extraction/reaction process which are fully discussed.

  2. Shanghai Futures Exchange Plans to Introduce Tin,Nickel,Alumina,Stainless steel,and Rare Earth Varieties Into the Futures Market

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2014-01-01

    <正>On April 29,the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association signed strategic cooperation agreement in Shanghai;Yang Maijun,Director of the Shanghai Futures Exchange,and Chen Quanxun,Counselor of the State Council and Chairman of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association,along with others attended the agreement signing ceremony.

  3. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  4. An investigation on how to estimate future cash flows: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roghayeh Ahmdi Panah Banad Koki

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to predict future cash flows using present cash flow and accruals using the information of 96 selected firms listed on Tehran Stock Exchange over the period 2007-2011. The proposed study uses linear regression techniques to forecast future cash flow and the results indicate that cash flow and accruals together could provide more power to forecast cash flow. In addition, accrual provides future cash flow better than cash flow. The survey also performs an investigation on discretionary accrual and finds that the firms with higher accruals maintain lower return compared with firms with lower return. This means there is a clear evidence of discretionary accruals on Tehran Stock Exchange.

  5. Dynamic Jump Intensities and Risk Premiums in Crude Oil Futures and Options Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Jacobs, Kris; Li, Bingxin

    2016-01-01

    Options on crude oil futures are the most actively traded commodity options. We develop a class of computationally efficient discrete-time jump models that allow for closed-form option valuation, and we use crude oil futures and options data to investigate the economic importance of jumps...... and dynamic jump intensities in these markets. Allowing for jumps is crucial for modeling crude oil futures and futures options, and we find evidence in favor of time-varying jump intensities. During crisis periods, jumps occur more frequently. The properties of the jump processes implied by the option data...... differ from those implied by the futures data, which may be due to improved parameter identification....

  6. Effect of Temperature Shock and Inventory Surprises on Natural Gas and Heating Oil Futures Returns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, John Wei-Shan; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of temperature shock on both near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns by extending the weather and storage models of the previous study. Several notable findings from the empirical studies are presented. First, the expected temperature shock significantly and positively affects both the near-month and far-month natural gas and heating oil futures returns. Next, significant temperature shock has effect on both the conditional mean and volatility of natural gas and heating oil prices. The results indicate that expected inventory surprises significantly and negatively affects the far-month natural gas futures returns. Moreover, volatility of natural gas futures returns is higher on Thursdays and that of near-month heating oil futures returns is higher on Wednesdays than other days. Finally, it is found that storage announcement for natural gas significantly affects near-month and far-month natural gas futures returns. Furthermore, both natural gas and heating oil futures returns are affected more by the weighted average temperature reported by multiple weather reporting stations than that reported by a single weather reporting station. PMID:25133233

  7. Effects of an oil price rise on inflation, output, and the exchange rate in the case of subsidization policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zandi, F R

    1982-01-01

    Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries raised the price of oil by 400% in 1974, the theory of supply inflation has received a great deal of attention. This study analyses the short and long run effects of an oil price rise on output, inflation, and the exchange rate. The study also analyses dynamic adjustments to the oil price rise in cases where oil-price subsidies are provided and where no subsidies are provided. In the no-subsidy case it is shown that the oil price rise can be inflationary or deflationary. The implications of the policy of subsidizing the price of oil is highlighted by taking account of a government budget constraint which in turn leads to the possibility of monetization as a source of financing the deficit, and thereby to higher output relative to the no subsidy case. As to the price level, the possibility is illustrated that subsidization can actually be more inflationary. The important element giving rise to the above possibility is the subsidy induced increase in the money supply. Exchange-rate flexibility is shown not to insulate the domestic price level against an oil price rise. In the long run the rate of inflation and exchange-rate variations are determined by the rate of growth of the money supply. The dynamic adjustment path of price and output is shown to be determined by the rate of adjustment of inflationary expectations.

  8. Heat exchange studies on coconut oil cells as thermal energy storage for room thermal conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutjahja, I. M.; Putri, Widya A.; Fahmi, Z.; Wonorahardjo, S.; Kurnia, D.

    2017-07-01

    As reported by many thermal environment experts, room air conditioning might be controlled by thermal mass system. In this paper we discuss the performance of coconut oil cells as room thermal energy storage. The heat exchange mechanism of coconut oil (CO) which is one of potential organic Phase Change Material (PCM) is studied based on the results of temperature measurements in the perimeter and core parts of cells. We found that the heat exchange performance, i.e. heat absorption and heat release processes of CO cells are dominated by heat conduction in the sensible solid from the higher temperature perimeter part to the lower temperature core part and heat convection during the solid-liquid phase transition and sensible liquid phase. The capability of heat absorption as measured by the reduction of air temperature is not influenced by CO cell size. Besides that, the application of CO as the thermal mass has to be accompanied by air circulation to get the cool sensation of the room’s occupants.

  9. The future of the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, G.

    1998-01-01

    A review of the state of the Canadian oil and gas industry for 1997 was presented. In 1997, capital investment levels were at $19 billion with oil, gas and gas by-products production valued at $31 billion. Exports were strong and set to grow further. As far as the Yukon is concerned, the availability of increased incentives and the announcement of a common royalty regime for the Territory have helped to increase interest by outside capital. Ongoing efforts are being made to include First Nations communities in the public consultation processes, and to ensure significant benefits to First Nation people from any development. The industry's initiatives and approaches to exploration, development and production were outlined. Environmental initiatives to protect the wilderness, and the existing ecosystem were described with examples from Alberta (Special Places 2000) and from British Columbia (BC Northern Rockies (Muskwa-Kechika; marine protected areas). 1 fig

  10. Big questions cloud Iraq's future role in world oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tippee, B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that Iraq raises questions for the world oil market beyond those frequently asked about when and under what circumstances it will resume exports. Two wars since 1981 have obscured encouraging results from a 20 year exploration program that were only beginning to come to light when Iraq invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Those results indicate the country might someday be able to produce much more than the 3.2 million b/d it was flowing before a United Nations embargo blocked exports. If exploratory potential is anywhere near what officials asserted in the late 1980s, and if Iraq eventually turns hospitable to international capital, the country could become a world class opportunity for oil companies as well as an exporter with productive capacity approaching that of Saudi Arabia. But political conditions can change quickly. Under a new, secular regime, Iraq might welcome non-Iraqi oil companies and capital as essential to economic recovery. It's a prospect that warrants a new industry look at what the country has revealed about its geology and exploration history

  11. Knowledge Exchange between Poland and Vietnam in Mining and Geology - the Status Quo and Future Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Nga; Pham, Nguyet

    2018-03-01

    From the beginning of the 21st century, knowledge exchange between Poland and Vietnam in mining and geology has been focusing in technology, education and training. Since years, Polish academic and commercial partners have been developing a close collaboration with Vietnam National Coal - Mineral Industries Holding Corporation Limited. Major outcomes of the collaboration are installations and operation of mining equipments and machines in Vietnamese mining companies, and excellent training programs for graduate and post graduate students and mining staff for both countries, etc. From aspects of knowledge management in globalization, the article highlights the outstanding outcomes of knowledge exchanges between the two countries, outlines cultural and economic challenges for the exchange and proposes some improvement in the future.

  12. Investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance and stochastic dominance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines investor preferences for oil spot and futures based on mean-variance (MV) and stochastic dominance (SD). The mean-variance criterion cannot distinct the preferences of spot and market whereas SD tests leads to the conclusion that spot dominates futures in the downside

  13. Risk-averse and Risk-seeking Investor Preferences for Oil Spot and Futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    H.H. Lean (Hooi Hooi); M.J. McAleer (Michael); W.-K. Wong (Wing-Keung)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThis paper examines risk-averse and risk-seeking investor preferences for oil spot and futures prices by using the mean-variance (MV) criterion and stochastic dominance (SD) approach. The MV findings cannot distinguish between the preferences of spot and futures markets. However, the SD

  14. Future markets and the two dimensions of instability in commodity markets: The oil experience

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabre, S.

    1991-01-01

    Public opinion and the media often suggest that futures markets have made the price of oil more unstable than it otherwise should be. It is argued that short-term price instability, associated with the functioning commodity futures markets, must be distinguished from medium-term instability, associated with the processes that adjust supply and consumption. Futures markets appear to be price destabilizing at times, although they also facilitate the management of trade in oil. In the medium term, however, stability and instability are determined by the mechanisms that adjust production and consumption. 39 refs., 4 figs

  15. Effect of resins of heat exchanger fouling by asphaltene-containing oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Al-Atar, E.; Watkinson, A.P. [British Columbia Univ., Dept. of Chemical and Bio-Resource Engineering, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

    1999-07-01

    The effects of resins on the thermal fouling of asphaltene containing oils in heat exchangers was investigated as well as the nature of the deposits. Building on previous research, a sample of de-asphalted vacuum bottoms (DAO), serving as a source of natural resins, heavy oil (HO) and fuel oil was used to investigate the effects of resin concentration on the rate of thermal fouling. The conditions of the study included: fluid circulation through the UBC annular fouling test section for up to 30 hour periods, monitoring of thermal fouling by measurement, and nitrogen atmospheres at a bulk temperature of 85 degrees C, a bulk velocity of 0.85 am/s, and a pressure of 410 kPa. Physical and chemical characterization of the deposits was affected, and filtration at the bulk temperature before and after a run was used to determine the occurrence of fine solids in the fluid. The rate of fouling generally decreased tending generally towards asymptotic behavior in the limit, and after one day Rf values up to 0.3 m2K/kW occurred with severe fouling. An increase in the fouling rate occurred with increased DAO concentration in the mixture, at a fixed heavy oil concentration of 5 weight percent, and the relation between Asomaning's colloidal instability index and the trends in fouling rate was not observed, although there were some indications of reduced fouling as there was an increase in the ratio of resins to asphaltenes, however, blends of the DAO-HO-FO helped to control the concentration of asphaltenes and resins that are possible. (Abstract only).

  16. Optimization of acidified oil esterification catalyzed by sulfonated cation exchange resin using response surface methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Lingling; Han, Ying; Sun, Kaian; Lu, Jie; Ding, Jincheng

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • As lipid source, acidified oil are from industrial wastes for renewable energy. • The predicted conversion rate of FFAs was 75.24% under the RSM optimized conditions. • The adsorption system was employed to remove the water produced to shift the equilibrium toward ethyl ester production. • Maximum conversion rate of 98.32% was obtained using adsorption system at optimum process parameters. • Compared with tradition methods, molecular sieve dehydration method improved the conversion rate by 23.08%. - Abstract: The esterification of acidified oil with ethanol catalyzed by sulfonated cation exchange resins (SCER) was optimized using the response surface methodology (RSM). The effects of the molar ratio of ethanol to acidified oil, reaction time and catalyst loading on the conversion rate of free fatty acids (FFAs) were investigated at the temperature of the boiling point of ethanol. Results showed that the highest conversion rate of 75.24% was obtained at the molar ratio of ethanol to acidified oil of 23.2, reaction time of 8.0 h and catalyst loading of 35.0 wt.%. Moreover, the conversion rate of FFAs was increased to 98.32% by using a water adsorption apparatus under the RSM optimized conditions. Scanning electronic microscopic–energy dispersive spectrometric (SEM–EDS), X-ray diffractometric (XRD) and thermogravimetric–derivative thermogravimetric (TG–DTG) analyses confirmed that the morphology of catalysts did not change much and the mechanical and thermal stabilities were still good after the reaction. Furthermore, SCER exhibited a high catalytic activity and stability after being reused for five successive times. The fuel properties of the biodiesel were comparable to that of ASTM, EN and GB biodiesel standard

  17. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations will increase...... carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO2. The methodology of static chamber CO2 flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO2 enrichment) facility is a challenge...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  18. A comprehensive guide of remediation technologies for oil contaminated soil - Present works and future directions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Mee Wei; Lau, Ee Von; Poh, Phaik Eong

    2016-08-15

    Oil spills result in negative impacts on the environment, economy and society. Due to tidal and waves actions, the oil spillage affects the shorelines by adhering to the soil, making it difficult for immediate cleaning of the soil. As shoreline clean-up is the most costly component of a response operation, there is a need for effective oil remediation technologies. This paper provides a review on the remediation technologies for soil contaminated with various types of oil, including diesel, crude oil, petroleum, lubricating oil, bitumen and bunker oil. The methods discussed include solvent extraction, bioremediation, phytoremediation, chemical oxidation, electrokinetic remediation, thermal technologies, ultrasonication, flotation and integrated remediation technologies. Each of these technologies was discussed, and associated with their advantages, disadvantages, advancements and future work in detail. Nonetheless, it is important to note that no single remediation technology is considered the best solution for the remediation of oil contaminated soil. This review provides a comprehensive literature on the various remediation technologies studied in the removal of different oil types from soil. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Crude oil pricing in Asia and future problems; Asia no gen`yu pricing to kongo no kadai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-01-30

    This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  20. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  1. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  2. A study on relationship between abnormal accruals and future profitability: Evidence from Tehran Stock Exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Khodaei Valahzaghard

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an empirical investigation to study the relationship between future profitability and abnormal accruals on selected firms from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE. The study selects 223 firms from TSE market over the period 2007-2011. Using the regression analysis, the study shows there was no meaningful relationship between abnormal earnings and future profitability when the level of significance is five percent. There are also seven sub-hypotheses associated with the proposed study of this paper. The results indicate that while there were no meaningful relationship between firm size, ratio of book value to equity, capital expenditure, earnings quality, earning forecasted error and book value leverage on one side and future earnings, the study confirms a significance relationship between market leverage and future earnings.

  3. "Forecasting Volatility and Spillovers in Crude Oil Spot, Forward and Futures Markets"

    OpenAIRE

    Chia-Lin Chang; Michael McAleer; Roengchai Tansuchat

    2009-01-01

    Crude oil price volatility has been analyzed extensively for organized spot, forward and futures markets for well over a decade, and is crucial for forecasting volatility and Value-at- Risk (VaR). There are four major benchmarks in the international oil market, namely West Texas Intermediate (USA), Brent (North Sea), Dubai/Oman (Middle East), and Tapis (Asia- Pacific), which are likely to be highly correlated. This paper analyses the volatility spillover effects across and within the four mar...

  4. Life cycle energy and greenhouse gas emissions from transportation of Canadian oil sands to future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tarnoczi, Tyler

    2013-01-01

    Oil sands transportation diversification is important for preventing discounted crude pricing. Current life cycle assessment (LCA) models that assess greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from crude oil transportation are linearly-scale and fail to account for project specific details. This research sets out to develop a detailed LCA model to compare the energy inputs and GHG emissions of pipeline and rail transportation for oil sands products. The model is applied to several proposed oils sands transportation routes that may serve as future markets. Comparison between transportation projects suggest that energy inputs and GHG emissions show a high degree of variation. For both rail and pipeline transportation, the distance over which the product is transported has a large impact on total emissions. The regional electricity grid and pump efficiency have the largest impact on pipeline emissions, while train engine efficiency and bitumen blending ratios have the largest impact on rail transportation emissions. LCA-based GHG regulations should refine models to account for the range of product pathways and focus efforts on cost-effective emission reductions. As the climate-change impacts of new oil sands transportation projects are considered, GHG emission boundaries should be defined according to operation control. -- Highlights: •A life cycle model is developed to compare transportation of oil sands products. •The model is applied to several potential future oil sands markets. •Energy inputs and GHG emissions are compared. •Model inputs are explored using sensitivity analysis. •Policy recommendations are provided

  5. A general improved methodology to forecasting future oil production: Application to the UK and Norway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fiévet, L.; Forró, Z.; Cauwels, P.; Sornette, D.

    2015-01-01

    We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the standard methodology that tends to underestimate remaining oil reserves, our method gives a better description of future oil production, as validated by our back-tests starting in 2008. Specifically, we predict remaining reserves extractable until 2030 to be 5.7 ± 0.3 billion barrels for Norway and 3.0 ± 0.3 billion barrels for the UK, which are respectively 45% and 66% above the predictions using an extrapolation of aggregate production. - Highlights: • Two step methodology to forecast a countries oil production. • Nonlinear extrapolation of the performance of individual fields. • Stochastic model of the frequency of future discoveries. • Backtest starting in 2008 of the methodology. • Improvement upon standard extrapolation of aggregate production

  6. Factors affecting future crude oil production in South East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baugh, M.A.

    1996-01-01

    In the face of booming regional demand, crude oil production in the South East Asian region will decline from a 1996 peak of 5.7 million barrels a day to 3.5 million barrels a day in 2005 unless major new exploration investments are undertaken. The current fiscal terms for such investment will not attract continued significant funds to the region given the low crude price outlook, tough competitive global environment for the upstream industry, and the emergence of more attractive fiscal terms in politically and commercially stable countries with proven prospectivity. There is evidence from the emerging trend toward fiscal terms softening and differentiation around risk in some countries, that the commercial reality is becoming accepted. It remains to be seen if the various national political, bureaucratic and industry constituencies guiding these decisions within the region can respond decisively to mitigate the growing crude import dependency. (author). 2 tabs

  7. Forecasting Palm Oil Price Movements In Malaysia: Empirical Evidence from the Malaysian Palm Oil Futures Market.

    OpenAIRE

    Amran, Zulfathi

    2010-01-01

    The palm oil industry is one of the main commodity industries in South East Asia. This is the case for the two main producers and exporters of crude palm oil in the world, Malaysia and Indonesia, and thus there is an importance placed on the trading of the commodity in Malaysia, especially for hedging purposes for the producers. This is because; the main use of the product is for exporting purposes rather than for consumption, and thus it is important if there is a tool that the producers or ...

  8. Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

    2004-01-01

    In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

  9. Future Oil and Gas Resources of the World: A Coming Supply Crisis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahlbrandt, T. S.

    2002-05-01

    Is the world running out of oil? Where will future oil and gas supplies come from? To help answer these questions, the U.S. Geological Survey completed in 2000 a new assessment of the undiscovered conventional oil and gas resources and potential additions to reserves from field growth. One hundred and twenty-eight provinces were assessed in a 100 man-year effort from 1995-2000. The assessed provinces included 76 priority provinces containing 95 percent of the world's discovered oil and gas and an additional 52 "boutique" provinces, many of which may be highly prospective. Total Petroleum Systems (TPS) were identified and described for each of these provinces along with associated Assessment Units (AU) that are the basic units for assessing undiscovered petroleum. The assessment process coupled geologic analysis with a probabilistic methodology to estimate remaining potential. Within the 128 assessed provinces, were 159 TPS and 274 AU. For these provinces, the endowment of recoverable oil, which includes cumulative production, remaining reserves, reserve growth, and undiscovered resources is estimated at about 3 trillion barrels of oil (TBO). The natural gas endowment is estimated at 2.6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent (TBOE). Oil reserves are currently 1.1 TBO; world consumption is about .028 TBO per year. Natural gas reserves are about .8 TBOE; world consumption is about .014 TBOE. Thus, without any additional discoveries of oil, gas or natural gas liquids, we have about 2 TBOE of proved petroleum reserves. Of the oil and gas endowment of about 5.6 TBOE, we estimate that the world has consumed about 1 TBOE, or 18 percent leaving about 82 percent of endowment to be utilized or found. Half of the world's undiscovered potential is offshore. Arctic basins with about 25 percent of undiscovered petroleum resources make up the next great frontier. An additional 279 provinces contain some oil and gas and, if considered, would increase the oil and gas endowment

  10. Sorption of 226Ra from oil effluents onto synthetic cation exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Attar, L.; Safia, M.

    2014-01-01

    Increasing environmental awareness is being urged for the safe disposal of 226 Ra-contaminated production water generated in the oil industry. Brainiest, antimony silicate and their cationic derivatives were studied for the take-up of 226 Ra using the batch-type method under experimentally determined parameters, viz. contact time, solution-solid ratio and 226 Ra concentration. Data was expressed in terms of distribution coefficients. Sorption experiments were performed in different concentrations of nitric acid in order to speculate the mechanism of 226 Ra uptake. Variation in the magnitude of sorption efficiency of the materials in the presence of the major components of waste streams, i.e. Na + , K + and Ca 2+ , revealed that K + was the greatest competitor and Na + the least. The application of the materials to sorb 226 Ra from actual oil co-production water samples, collected from Der Ezzor and Al Fourat petroleum companies (DEZPC and AFPC), was interpreted in terms of the exchange properties of the materials and water characterisation. Of the parameters studied, the selectivity of materials was shown to be greatly dependent on the pH of wastewater to be treated. (author)

  11. Full Thickness Macular Hole Closure after Exchanging Silicone-Oil Tamponade with C3F8 without Posturing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Xirou

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: To report a case of macular hole closure after the exchange of a silicone-oil tamponade with gas C3F8 14%. Method: A 64-year-old female patient with a stage IV macular hole underwent a three-port pars-plana vitrectomy and internal limiting membrane peeling. Due to the patient’s chronic illness (respiratory problems, a silicone-oil tamponade was preferred. However, the macula hole was still flat opened four months postoperatively. Therefore, the patient underwent an exchange of silicone oil with gas C3F8 14%. No face-down position was advised postoperatively due to her health problems. Results: Macular hole closure was confirmed with optical coherence tomography six weeks after exchanging the silicone oil with gas. Conclusions: Macular hole surgery using a silicone-oil tamponade has been proposed as treatment of choice for patients unable to posture. In our case, the use of a long-acting gas (C3F8 14%, even without posturing, proved to be more effective.

  12. Midstream streamlining: crude-oil document exchange would be faster with fewer errors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roche, P.

    2001-11-01

    WellPoint Systems, a Calgary-based oil and gas software firm has designed an Internet-based crude-oil document exchange system, dubbed CDOX, that would see battery operators filling out production forecast forms on the systems they are using now, but instead of faxing the form to pipeline and terminal operators the operator could automatically transmit data over the Internet to the intended companies' computers. Unlike e-mail, the information would be put in place at the receiving end without human intervention. At the heart of the system is a digital hub that securely routes documents from one system to another. Each participating company only has to keep its own profile information up to date, instead of managing hundreds of customer e-mail addresses. The system would run on software provided by webMethods Inc., a Fairfax, Virginia-based B2B software provider. Documents will be in extensible markup language (XML) which is more flexible than HTML, allowing groups of users to create their own tags or extensions, for integrated information flows and automated business-to-business transactions. Advantages are lower cost due to automated loading; CDOX would eliminate the need for manual retyping of faxed data and the errors made during this process; pipeline operators could start analyzing the data immediately rather than waiting to have the data keyed into their systems. A one-year pilot project is now being organized by WellPoint Systems. The pilot project will include crude oil shippers and pipeline operators. WellPoint hopes that the monthly Form A battery operators' forecast will be moving on the system within three months. During the rest of the year pilot project seven other documents are planned to be added, including notice of shipment and shippers balance.

  13. Future changes in large-scale transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, M.; Randel, W. J.; Kinnison, D. E.; Garcia, R. R.

    2017-12-01

    Future changes in large-scale transport are investigated in long-term (1955-2099) simulations of the Community Earth System Model - Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM) under an RCP6.0 climate change scenario. We examine artificial passive tracers in order to isolate transport changes from future changes in emissions and chemical processes. The model suggests enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange in both directions (STE), with decreasing tropospheric and increasing stratospheric tracer concentrations in the troposphere. Changes in the different transport processes are evaluated using the Transformed Eulerian Mean continuity equation, including parameterized convective transport. Dynamical changes associated with the rise of the tropopause height are shown to play a crucial role on future transport trends.

  14. The Impact of United States Monetary Policy in the Crude Oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Padilla-Padilla, Fernando M.

    This research examines the empirical impact the United States monetary policy, through the federal fund interest rate, has on the volatility in the crude oil price in the futures market. Prior research has shown how macroeconomic events and variables have impacted different financial markets within short and long--term movements. After testing and decomposing the variables, the two stationary time series were analyzed using a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR). The empirical evidence shows, with statistical significance, a direct relationship when explaining crude oil prices as function of fed fund rates (t-1) and an indirect relationship when explained as a function of fed fund rates (t-2). These results partially address the literature review lacunas within the topic of the existing implication monetary policy has within the crude oil futures market.

  15. The Share Price and Investment: Current Footprints for Future Oil and Gas Industry Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel Jianu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The share price has become a very important indicator for shareholders, banks, and financial institutions evaluating the performance of companies. The oil and gas industry seems to be in a difficult era of development, due to the market prices for its products. Moreover, climate change and renewable energies are barriers for fossil energy. This state of affairs, and the fact that oil and gas shares are considered one of the most solid and reliable shares on the London Stock Exchange (LSE, have drawn our attention. International institutions encourage the investment in the oil and gas economic sector. This study investigates how investments of oil and gas companies in long-term assets influence the share price. Using the Ohlson share price model for a sample of 51 listed companies on the LSE proves that investments in long-term assets influence the share price in the case of companies which record losses. Investments in long-term assets are responsible for the attractiveness of the oil and gas company shares.

  16. Fueling the dragon: Alternative Chinese oil futures and their implications for the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eberling, George G.

    This study examines how Chinese oil energy will likely shape future Sino-American relations under conditions of dependency and non-dependency. The study will list and describe three possible Chinese oil energy futures or scenarios (Competitive Dependency, Competitive Surplus and Cooperative Surplus) using Scenario Analysis to subsequently estimate their associated likelihoods using the PRINCE forecasting system and discuss and evaluate their strategic implications for the United States. Further, this study will determine the most likely oil energy future or scenario. Finally, the study will list and describe the most likely United States political, economic and/or military policy responses for each future or scenario. The study contributes to the literature on Chinese and United States energy security, foreign policy, political economy and political risk analysis by showing how China will most likely address its growing oil energy dependence and by determining what will be the most likely U.S. foreign policy consequences based on the most current literature available on energy security and foreign policy.

  17. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  18. Comment on the UPS (and past and future downs) of the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walde, T.

    2000-01-01

    Crude oil has been rising to levels over 35 US$ per barrel from the very low prices of early 1999 - close to 10 $. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, this leaves it still at a third of the prices prevailing during the peak of 1981. This trend has been accelerated currently by short-term influences market factors. Who could have forecasted such price evolution by January 1999, when crude prices were collapsing, following the series of financial crises in Asia, Russia and Brazil? The current oil price surge has been breaking once again every 'crystal ball' and mathematical model designed to predict short-or-long-term oil price evolution - foremost the models used by the international oil companies and their advisers, chastened by the embarrassment of earlier optimism. Old ghosts that used to scare the world during the energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's are waking up again. Traditional forces that have since 1985 and throughout the whole 1990's given economic rationality to crude price behaviour, seem to be losing ground and are unable to restore a more sustainable level of oil prices. Political forces, silent since the price collapse of 1985/86, have again raised their head and bringing to the fore historic contradictions and problems never solved. This paper covers this new reality. We are too cautions to dare to forecast, but rather identify factors that have to be considered in speculating about the future evolution of oil prices. The changing weight of those factors will continue to influence the future of the oil price - without much interest (apart from the producers) when low but again greatly debated when, as now, up again. (authors)

  19. Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2014-07-01

    The weak-form efficiency of energy futures markets has long been studied and empirical evidence suggests controversial conclusions. In this work, nonparametric methods are adopted to estimate the Hurst indexes of the WTI crude oil futures prices (1983-2012) and a strict statistical test in the spirit of bootstrapping is put forward to verify the weak-form market efficiency hypothesis. The results show that the crude oil futures market is efficient when the whole period is considered. When the whole series is divided into three sub-series separated by the outbreaks of the Gulf War and the Iraq War, it is found that the Gulf War reduced the efficiency of the market. If the sample is split into two sub-series based on the signing date of the North American Free Trade Agreement, the market is found to be inefficient in the sub-periods during which the Gulf War broke out. The same analysis on short-time series in moving windows shows that the market is inefficient only when some turbulent events occur, such as the oil price crash in 1985, the Gulf war, and the oil price crash in 2008.

  20. Treatment by absorbers of oil contaminated process waters. Ion exchange resins and filtration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Gamma, Ana M.; Becquart, Elena T.; Chocron, Mauricio; Ambrosioni, P.M.; Schoenbrod, B.

    2003-01-01

    Pressurized Heavy Water Reactors have a system devoted to the purification and upgrading of the collected heavy water leaks. The purification train is fed with different degradation ratios (D 2 O/H 2 O) activities and impurities. The water is distilled in a packed bed column filled with a mesh type packing. With the purpose of minimizing the column stack corrosion, the water is pretreated in a train consisting on an activated charcoal bed-strong cationic-anionic resin and a final polishing mixed bed resin. Traces of oils are retained by the charcoal bed but some compounds extracted by the aqueous phase are suspected to be responsible for the resins fouling or precursors of potentially aggressive agents inside the distillation column. In the present work, the identification, evaluation of alternatives for the retention like dead end and cross flow micro filtration, adsorption and ion exchange were tested and the results compared to the original products present in the water upgrading purification train. (author)

  1. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  2. Use of Cymbopogon citratus essential oil in food preservation: Recent advances and future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ekpenyong, Christopher E; Akpan, Ernest E

    2017-08-13

    The economic burdens and health implications of food spoilage are increasing. Contamination of food sources by fungi, bacteria, yeast, nematodes, insects, and rodents remains a major public health concern. Research has focused on developing safer natural products and innovations to meet consumers' acceptance as alternatives to synthetic food preservatives. Many recent novel preservative techniques and applications of both natural and synthetic origin continue to proliferate in food and chemical industries. In particular, some essential oils of plant origin are potent food preservatives and are thus attractive alternatives to synthetic preservatives. This paper provides an overview of recent advances and future prospects in assessing the efficacy of the use of Cymbopogon citratus (lemongrass) essential oil in food preservation. The possible mechanisms of action and toxicological profile as well as evidence for or against the use of this essential oil as an alternative to synthetic food preservatives in domestic and industrial applications are discussed.

  3. Exchange of researchers of oil substituting energies in EU countries; EU shokoku no sekiyu daitai energy kenkyusha koryu jigyo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1996-03-01

    In order to further promote smoother introduction of oil substituting energies and development of new energies and energy saving technologies, it was intended to exchange and acquire items of information effective to learn the current state and policy trends on research and development of new energies and energy conservation in the EU countries who are the industrialized countries like Japan and enthusiastic in developing oil substituting energies. Therefore, exchange of researchers was carried out with an objective to contribute to research and development of oil substituting energies by deepening mutual understanding on the development efforts and forming efficient cooperative relationship. The researchers who visited Japan are Dr. Robert Durand (France) and Prof. and Dr. Bruno Scrosati (Italy). Dr. Durand has a great knowledge about fuel cells and storage batteries, and Dr. Scrosati about electrolytes and lithium batteries. Both gentlemen have visited the Agency of Industrial Science and Technology and the Agency of Natural Resources and Energy of the Ministry of International Trade and Industry, NEDO, Toshiba, Sony, Sanyo Electric, Japan Storage Battery, Matsushita Battery Industry, the Industrial Technology Research Institute of Osaka, and Kansai Electric Power Company. Views and information were exchanged and a number of good results were rewarded.

  4. Impact of innovations on future energy supply - chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittner, Christian

    2013-01-01

    The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an increase of global energy demand by one-third during next 20 years together with a change in the global energy mix. A key-influencing factor is a strong expected increase in oil and gas production in the United States driven by 'new' technologies such as hydraulic fracturing. Chemical enhanced oil recovery (CEOR) is another strong growing technology with the potential of a step change innovation, which will help to secure future oil supply by turning resources into reserves. While conventional production methods give access to on average only one-third of original oil in place, the use of surfactants and polymers allows for recovery of up to another third of this oil. In the case of polymer flooding with poly acrylamide, the number of full field implementations has increased in recent years. In the meantime new polymers have been developed to cover previously unmet needs - such polymers can be applied in fields of high salinity and high temperature. Use of surfactants is in an earlier stage, but pilot tests show promising results.

  5. Causality in variance and the type of traders in crude oil futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhar, Ramaprasad; Hamori, Shigeyuki

    2005-01-01

    This article examines the causal relationship and, in particular, informational dependence between crude oil futures return and the trading volume using daily data over a ten-year period using a recent econometric methodology. The two-step procedure developed by Cheung and Ng (1996) [Cheung, Y.W., Ng, L.K., 1996. A causality-in-variance test and its applications to financial market prices, Journal of Econometrics 72, 33-48.] is robust to distributional assumption and does not depend on simultaneous modeling of the two variables. We find only causality at higher order lags running from return to volume in the mean as well as in conditional variance. Our result is not in complete agreement with several earlier studies in this area. However, the result does indicate mild support for noise traders' hypothesis in the crude oil futures market. (Author)

  6. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bang Selsted, M

    2010-07-15

    Global change is a reality. Atmospheric CO{sub 2} levels are rising as well as mean global temperature and precipitation patterns are changing. These three environmental factors have separately and in combination effect on ecosystem processes. Terrestrial ecosystems hold large amounts of carbon, why understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work on ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions, shows that extended summer drought in combination with elevated temperature will ensure permanent dryer soil conditions, which decreases carbon turnover, while elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will increase carbon turnover. In the full future climate scenario, carbon turnover is over all expected to increase and the heathland to become a source of atmospheric CO{sub 2}. The methodology of static chamber CO{sub 2} flux measurements and applying the technology in a FACE (free air CO{sub 2} enrichment) facility is a challenge. Fluxes of CO{sub 2} from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO{sub 2} gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly on the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration and the CO{sub 2} soil-atmosphere gradient. (author)

  7. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  8. Hedging Effectiveness and Optimal Hedge Ratios: An Analysis of Malaysian Crude Palm Oil Futures Market

    OpenAIRE

    OH, STELLA JIA XIN

    2015-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness of crude palm oil futures market in Malaysia for the period from January 2000 to August 2015. To measure hedging performances of optimal hedge ratio, different measures have been employed such as the static hedge ratio estimation models of conventional Ordinary Least Square (OLS) model and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), while the time-varying model is presented by the Diagonal Vech Multivariate Generalized A...

  9. Dynamically Hedging Oil and Currency Futures Using Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cottrell, Paul Edward

    There is a lack of research in the area of hedging future contracts, especially in illiquid or very volatile market conditions. It is important to understand the volatility of the oil and currency markets because reduced fluctuations in these markets could lead to better hedging performance. This study compared different hedging methods by using a hedging error metric, supplementing the Receding Horizontal Control and Stochastic Programming (RHCSP) method by utilizing the London Interbank Offered Rate with the Levy process. The RHCSP hedging method was investigated to determine if improved hedging error was accomplished compared to the Black-Scholes, Leland, and Whalley and Wilmott methods when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. A modified RHCSP method was also investigated to determine if this method could significantly reduce hedging error under extreme market illiquidity conditions when applied on simulated, oil, and currency futures markets. This quantitative study used chaos theory and emergence for its theoretical foundation. An experimental research method was utilized for this study with a sample size of 506 hedging errors pertaining to historical and simulation data. The historical data were from January 1, 2005 through December 31, 2012. The modified RHCSP method was found to significantly reduce hedging error for the oil and currency market futures by the use of a 2-way ANOVA with a t test and post hoc Tukey test. This study promotes positive social change by identifying better risk controls for investment portfolios and illustrating how to benefit from high volatility in markets. Economists, professional investment managers, and independent investors could benefit from the findings of this study.

  10. Peering into Alberta’s Darkening Future: How Oil Prices Impact Alberta’s Royalty Revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Dobson

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The price of oil just keeps collapsing — and the fate of Alberta’s revenues is buckling with it. Going into March 2015, it seemed as if prices might have finally found a bottom, somewhere between US$48 and US$52. By the second week of March, they began falling again, to the low forties. These are prices the Alberta government had not even ventured to fathom when first putting together its forecasts for the impact of falling oil prices on the province’s finances. Come the fourth quarter of the Alberta government’s 2014/15 fiscal year, the province’s finances will begin to really feel the blow from the plunge in oil, as royalty payments dry up significantly. Come the 2015/16 fiscal year, the situation becomes even bleaker. In fact, the current fiscal year will seem pleasant compared to the next one. Due to a stronger than expected first half of the year, actual bitumen and crude oil royalties collected in Alberta from April to September 2014 exceeded estimates by $1.3 billion. That will mitigate some of the damage that the continuing slide in prices will cause by the year’s end, with the government’s third quarter update showing expected year-end crude oil and bitumen royalty revenues falling short of the budget target by $549 million. So severe has the fall in oil prices been that, in March 2015, the number of barrels of conventional oil that the government collects in royalties could plummet by up to 53,000 barrels from the 2014/15 budget forecast, declining to just 4,100 barrels per day. This suggests that prices may be nearing a point where royalty collection from conventional crude oil production is at risk of being virtually eliminated. Bitumen royalties are not faring much better. Relative to July 2014, per barrel royalties in February 2015 have potentially declined by 60 to 90 per cent. All told, the combined effect of the changing exchange rate, lower prices, and the lower royalty rates that take effect in this low

  11. A time-series analysis of the crude oil spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quan Jing.

    1990-01-01

    First, the existence of the relationship is tested. Second, after the relationship is established, it is tested to determine the direction of causality. Most of previous research on this issue ignored the first step, and the existence of the relationship was taken for granted. Unfortunately, however, this assumption is not justified since it does not necessarily hold. The first relationship investigated in this study is between the crude oil spot and futures prices. It is found that spot price leads futures prices instead of the futures price providing information on the spot price. Two additional relationships studied are those between the OPEC oil supply and the futures prices and that between the same supply and spot prices. In the case of OPEC supply and spot prices, a self-adaptive model with supply interruption dummy variables is introduced to study the price behavior. It is found that prices follow an adaptive process, that is, the previous price information offers powerful influence on the current price

  12. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  13. Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liao, Huei-Chu; Lee, Yi-Huey; Suen, Yu-Bo

    2008-01-01

    This paper uses daily Brent crude prices to investigate the employment of electronic trading on the returns conditional volatility in the oil futures market. After a suitable GARCH model is established, the conditional volatility series are found. The Bai and Perron model is then used to find two significant structural breaks for these conditional volatility series around two implementation dates of electronic trading. This result indicates that the change in the trading system has significant impacts on the returns volatility since our estimated second break date is very close to the all-electronic trade implementation date. Moreover, the conditional volatility in the all-electronic trading period is found to be more dominated by the temporal persistence rather than the volatility clustering effect. All these evidence can shed some light for explaining the high relationship between more volatile world oil price and the more popular electronic trade. (author)

  14. Arsenolipids in marine oils and fats: A review of occurrence, chemistry and future research needs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sele, Veronika; Sloth, Jens J.; Lundebye, Anne-Katrine

    2012-01-01

    Numerous studies have focused on arsenic in marine organisms, and relatively high natural levels of the element have been reported in marine samples. Despite their seemingly consistent presence in marine oils and fats, there is currently only limited knowledge available on arsenic compounds that ...... to feed and food safety and legislative issues. Analytical techniques, including techniques in the early work on arsenolipids in addition to methods employed today, and relevant sample preparation will be discussed....... of this review is to present current knowledge on the occurrence and chemistry of arsenolipids in marine oils, and to identify future research needs. The occurrence of arsenolipids and their relevance in marine organisms will be discussed, in addition to their relevance for consumers and industry, with respect...

  15. Hydrocarbon upgrading demonstration program (HUDP): an investment in the future of the oil sands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Plessis, Duke; Isaacs, Eddy [AI-EES (Canada); Hill, Rich; McPhee, Anne; Keesom, Bill; Arnold, Ed [Jacobs Consultancy (Canada)

    2011-07-01

    Alberta Innovates Energy and Environment Solutions (AIEES), the technology arm of the Alberta Government in terms of energy and the environment, has initiated the hydrocarbon upgrading demonstration program (HUDP). Since lighter products have a better market value, this program aims to develop technologies for upgrading heavy oil into light, transportable fuel. The program also aims to improve SAGD efficiency while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To do so, the gaps between typical and ideal operations were identified and quantified, life cycle analyses were performed, current studies were reviewed and future issues and opportunities were assessed. With the HUDP program, AIEES is supporting the industry through investment and technology support to develop innovative technologies which will improve margins and the sustainability of oil sands operations.

  16. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2000-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.

  17. Oil integration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carta Petrolera

    1997-01-01

    Colombia, Mexico and Venezuela agree in to have a bigger exchange of information, technology and experiences in areas of mutual interest that allow in the future, combined developments of the hydrocarbons industry. In such a sense, ECOPETROL narrowed its relationships with the two powerful Latin American oil enterprises, when suiting in Bogota agreements of mutual collaboration with representatives of the respective state companies. To begin, the company signed a cooperation agreement with Petroleos de Venezuela S.A (PDVSA), with the purpose of to narrow the relationships between the two companies and to undertake combined actions in those matters of the oil and petrochemical industry of mutual interest

  18. The Role of Implied Volatility in Forecasting Future Realized Volatility and Jumps in Foreign Exchange, Stock and Bond Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Bent Jesper

    We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets, as well as the continuous sample path and jump components of this, from variables in the information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Recent nonparametric...

  19. Current status and future prospects of an automated sample exchange system PAM for protein crystallography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiraki, M.; Yamada, Y.; Chavas, L. M. G.; Matsugaki, N.; Igarashi, N.; Wakatsuki, S.

    2013-03-01

    To achieve fully-automated and/or remote data collection in high-throughput X-ray experiments, the Structural Biology Research Centre at the Photon Factory (PF) has installed PF automated mounting system (PAM) for sample exchange robots at PF macromolecular crystallography beamlines BL-1A, BL-5A, BL-17A, AR-NW12A and AR-NE3A. We are upgrading the experimental systems, including the PAM for stable and efficient operation. To prevent human error in automated data collection, we installed a two-dimensional barcode reader for identification of the cassettes and sample pins. Because no liquid nitrogen pipeline in the PF experimental hutch is installed, the users commonly add liquid nitrogen using a small Dewar. To address this issue, an automated liquid nitrogen filling system that links a 100-liter tank to the robot Dewar has been installed on the PF macromolecular beamline. Here we describe this new implementation, as well as future prospects.

  20. Novel simple process for tocopherols selective recovery from vegetable oils by adsorption and desorption with an anion-exchange resin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiromori, Kousuke; Shibasaki-Kitakawa, Naomi; Nakashima, Kazunori; Yonemoto, Toshikuni

    2016-03-01

    A novel and simple low-temperature process was used to recover tocopherols from a deodorizer distillate, which is a by-product of edible oil refining. The process consists of three operations: the esterification of free fatty acids with a cation-exchange resin catalyst, the adsorption of tocopherols onto an anion-exchange resin, and tocopherol desorption from the resin. No degradation of tocopherols occurred during these processes. In the tocopherol-rich fraction, no impurities such as sterols or glycerides were present. These impurities are commonly found in the product of the conventional process. This novel process improves the overall recovery ratio and the mass fraction of the product (75.9% and 51.0wt%) compared with those in the conventional process (50% and 35wt%). Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Some properties of castor oil affecting its performance as a capacitor impregnant and their significance to future impregnant research

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boicourt, G.P.

    1975-01-01

    For a considerable time castor oil and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) have been the principal impregnants used in energy-storage capacitors. Castor oil has proven to be better than PCB for pulsed applications. PCB's have come under attack as an environmental hazard, while castor oil is a vegetable product and its supply and quality are subject to fluctuation. These two facts make the development of new impregnants desirable. The properties of PCB as a capacitor impregnant are well known. This paper first compares a number of properties of castor oil and PCB's. A comparison is made between the lives of castor oil capacitors and comparable PCB energy-storage capacitors. Some of the physical and chemical properties of castor oil which make it a good pulse capacitor impregnant are examined. These properties can be used as a guide for future research on new pulse capacitor impregnants

  2. Quantified moving average strategy of crude oil futures market based on fuzzy logic rules and genetic algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiaojia; An, Haizhong; Wang, Lijun; Guan, Qing

    2017-09-01

    The moving average strategy is a technical indicator that can generate trading signals to assist investment. While the trading signals tell the traders timing to buy or sell, the moving average cannot tell the trading volume, which is a crucial factor for investment. This paper proposes a fuzzy moving average strategy, in which the fuzzy logic rule is used to determine the strength of trading signals, i.e., the trading volume. To compose one fuzzy logic rule, we use four types of moving averages, the length of the moving average period, the fuzzy extent, and the recommend value. Ten fuzzy logic rules form a fuzzy set, which generates a rating level that decides the trading volume. In this process, we apply genetic algorithms to identify an optimal fuzzy logic rule set and utilize crude oil futures prices from the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) as the experiment data. Each experiment is repeated for 20 times. The results show that firstly the fuzzy moving average strategy can obtain a more stable rate of return than the moving average strategies. Secondly, holding amounts series is highly sensitive to price series. Thirdly, simple moving average methods are more efficient. Lastly, the fuzzy extents of extremely low, high, and very high are more popular. These results are helpful in investment decisions.

  3. Oil and Gas in Eastern Africa: Current Developments and Future Perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auge, Benjamin

    2015-03-01

    The position of oil companies toward East Africa has changed considerably since 2006 when the first reserves in Uganda came to light. However, for many investors interested in the region, it remains difficult to get a clear picture of the scale of developments of this sector. This paper will discuss the locations of reserves, their volumes, when they will be developed, what they will be used for, and possible impediments to their development. In addition to Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania and Mozambique, which already have ample hydrocarbon resources, it will be useful to address the future of certain countries such as Ethiopia, Somalia, Madagascar, and the Comoro Islands, which have largely underestimated potentials. (author)

  4. Future oil supply: The changing stance of the International Energy Agency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, Richard G.

    2011-01-01

    The IEA was established in 1974 with a mandate to promote energy security amongst its members, namely the states of the OECD, and to advise those members on sound energy policy. Its recent forecasts of the medium and long term prospects for oil supply, however, have wavered, alternating from optimistic to pessimistic and back again. For policy-makers, such inconsistency is difficult to deal with. Firstly we examine whether the changing outlooks seen in IEA forecasts made between 2007 and 2010 truly reflect a demonstrable, underlying change in the known facts, and we can find no such factual changes reported by the IEA. Secondly we examine whether the serious criticisms of the forecast made by other analysts have yet been addressed, and we conclude that they have not. Thirdly we consider the possible effects of the current economic downturn upon the IEA's assumptions and upon future oil supply. We conclude that all the forecasts made by the IEA appear to be too optimistic throughout this period. - Research highlights: → IEA forecasts of oil supply have changed from optimistic to pessimistic and back. → The reasons for the changes are listed, examined and found wanting. → The most appropriate IEA forecast is nevertheless the most pessimistic one. → Some criticisms of the forecast methodology and assumptions are described.

  5. Differing perspectives of major oil firms on future energy developments: An illustrative framework

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chang Youngho; Yong Jiayun

    2007-01-01

    This study develops a framework to analyse the perspectives of major oil firms in terms of their perceptions of current energy developments and projections of future energy potentials, and illustrates their views on the possibility of a paradigm shift in fuel use. The three A's themes-availability of resource (AV), applicability of technology (AP) and acceptability by society (AC)-make up the analytical framework. Divergence in oil firms' behaviour and perspectives are captured by the 3-A triangle that illustrates how the four largest oil firms in the world balance their stakes among the three A's. ExxonMobil's position is markedly skewed towards the theme of AV, whilst BP has the most balanced approach among the four. Shell and Total both share a similarly shaped 3-A triangle with more stakes placed on the theme of AP. The results would imply that a paradigm shift in resource use or a full-scale transition to a backstop technology is unlikely in the coming decades

  6. Expectations and drivers of future greenhouse gas emissions from Canada's oil sands: An expert elicitation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McKellar, Jennifer M.; Sleep, Sylvia; Bergerson, Joule A.; MacLean, Heather L.

    2017-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of oil sands operations has declined over time but has not offset absolute emissions growth due to rapidly increasing production. Policy making, decisions about research and development, and stakeholder discourse should be informed by an assessment of future emissions intensity trends, however informed projections are not easily generated. This study investigates expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions using expert elicitation. Thirteen experts participated in a survey, providing quantitative estimates of expected GHG emissions intensity changes and qualitative identifications of drivers. Experts generally agree that emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercially operating projects by 2033, with the greatest reductions expected through the use of technology in the in situ area of oil sands activity (40% mean reduction at multiple projects, averaged across experts). Incremental process changes are expected to contribute less to reducing GHG emissions intensity, however their potentially lower risk and cost may result in larger cumulative reductions. Both technology availability and more stringent GHG mitigation policies are required to realize these emissions intensity reductions. This paper demonstrates a method to increase rigour in emissions forecasting activities and the results can inform policy making, research and development and modelling and forecasting studies. - Highlights: • Expert elicitation used to investigate expected trends in oil sands GHG emissions. • Overall, emissions intensity reductions are expected at commercial projects by 2033. • Reductions are expected due to both technology changes and process improvements. • Technology availability and more stringent GHG policies are needed for reductions. • Method used increases rigour in emissions forecasting, and results inform policy.

  7. Leader-member exchange theory and research : accomplishments and future challenges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Breukelen, van W.; Schyns, B.; Blanc, Le P.M.

    2006-01-01

    In the Leader-Member Exchange (LMX) theory of leadership, the quality of the exchange relationship between a leader and a particular member of a work unit, team or organization is the basic unit of analysis (dyad). In this article, we try to answer the question whether research on the various

  8. Fuels for the oil-fuelled heating system of the future; Brennstoffe fuer die Oelheiztechnik der Zukunft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rheinberg, O. van [Oel-Waerme-Institut GmbH, An-Institut der RWTH Aachen, Herzogenrath (Germany). Abt. Energietraeger

    2011-02-15

    For ecological and political reasons bio-heating-oil of up to 10.9 vol.% of Fatty-Acid-Methyl-Ester (FAME) is available in the market. For new installations the appliance industry has approved their products for the use of this bio-heating-oil. For existing oil firing plants minor changes are necessary. These are the use of qualified oil burner pumps, oil tubes, oil pre-filter and the change to single chord system in order to avoid the continuous circulation of heating oil. Due to the chemical and physical properties an admixture of up to 20.9 vol.% of FAME in heating oil sulphur low is feasible. One of the main requirements to introduce such fuel in the market is the guarantee of storage stability over several years even by such high levels of FAME. To reach this goal an accurate predictability of fuel stability and different actions for the stabilisation of such bio-heating oil are necessary. Hence several investigations are undertaken at Oel-Waerme-Institut to ensure higher levels of FAME or of other alternative fuels in the future. (orig.)

  9. North American Oil Sands: History of Development, Prospects for the Future

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Humphries, Marc

    2008-01-01

    .... Since 2004, when a substantial portion of Canada's oil sands were deemed economic, Canada, with about 175 billion barrels of proved oil sands reserves, has ranked second behind Saudi Arabia in oil reserves...

  10. State of the Art of helium heat exchanger development for future HTR-projects - HTR2008-58146

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esch, M.; Juergens, B.; Hurtado, A.; Knoche, D.; Tietsch, W.

    2008-01-01

    decision, at the beginning of the 90's, to phase out nuclear power completely, research and funding of further development of HTR reactor design was also cut down. Today's HTR reactor designs, such as the PBMR in South Africa, use a direct cycle with a gas turbine, This technology is also based on the THTR technology and PBMR is a licensed party. For the HTR-PM in China and the future oil sand projects powered by HTR's in Canada and Siberia however the use of steam generators is required. Westinghouse and Dresden Univ. cooperate in the field of steam generator technology for HTR reactors. The existing know-how for HTR is based on a huge pool of knowledge gained by the past German HTR projects mentioned above and consists especially of the design methodology, the mechanical layout and material issues for helium heated steam generators. The project team consists of experienced specialists who have worked on HTR projects in the past and of young graduate engineers. Main goal of the project is to analyze the existing know-how and to adjust it to the state of the art. As a first step, the existing design and its methodology is being analyzed and the different points of improvement are identified. The final step of the program is the description of a new methodology which fulfills the severe requirements of the customer and all of the actual licensing conditions. One of the reasons why this project has been launched is that the requirements of life expectancy for HTR components increase and the material limits will be reached, especially at high temperatures. This implies that the design of helix heat exchangers has to allow in-service inspections; this was not a requirement for the previous THTR design. Methodologies for in-service inspections already had been developed, but they are not sufficient for today's tube lengths and have to be adapted. Another example, based on operating experience, is using reheaters to increase the efficiency is not recommended today. Using

  11. Coal and Oil: The Dark Monarchs of Global Energy: Understanding Supply and Extraction Patterns and their Importance for Future Production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoeoek, Mikael

    2010-01-01

    The formation of modern society has been dominated by coal and oil, and together these two fossil fuels account for nearly two thirds of all primary energy used by mankind. This makes future production a key question for future social development and this thesis attempts to answer whether it is possible to rely on an assumption of ever increasing production of coal and oil. Both coal and oil are finite resources, created over long time scales by geological processes. It is thus impossible to extract more fossil fuels than geologically available. In other words, there are limits to growth imposed by nature. The concept of depletion and exhaustion of recoverable resources is a fundamental question for the future extraction of coal and oil. Historical experience shows that peaking is a well established phenomenon in production of various natural resources. Coal and oil are no exceptions, and historical data shows that easily exploitable resources are exhausted while more challenging deposits are left for the future. For oil, depletion can also be tied directly to the physical laws governing fluid flows in reservoirs. Understanding and predicting behaviour of individual fields, in particularly giant fields, are essential for understanding future production. Based on comprehensive databases with reserve and production data for hundreds of oilfields, typical patterns were found. Alternatively, depletion can manifest itself indirectly through various mechanisms. This has been studied for coal. Over 60% of the global crude oil production is derived from only around 330 giant oilfields, where many of them are becoming increasingly mature. The annual decline in existing oil production has been determined to be around 6% and it is unrealistic that this will be offset by new field developments, additional discoveries or unconventional oil. This implies that the peak of the oil age is here. For coal a similar picture emerges, where 90% of the global coal production originates

  12. Future oriented financial information (FOFI) : Should oil and gas companies use FOFI in public documents?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Courtland, C.M.

    1998-01-01

    The issue of whether oil and gas companies should use FOFI (future-oriented financial information) in public documents was discussed. FOFI is information about prospective results of operations, financial position or changes in financial position, based on assumptions about future economic conditions and courses of actions (projections or forecasts). FOFI is not required under securities legislation unless an issuer chooses to provide it to third parties. However, if provided to one third party, it must be provided to all third parties. Five reasons why FOFI is not used by companies in the petroleum industry are given. These are: (1) it is not necessary to sell the prospectus offering, (2) if FOFI is included, the prospectus offering might, in some circumstances, be more difficult to sell, (3) if included, the FOFI may distract investors from proper analysis, (4) there are additional costs to the issuer when FOFI is included, and (5) there may be potential liability to various parties if FOFI is included and proves to be misleading. No changes to the current FOFI policy are contemplated for the immediate future, but in the longer term the reduction of the $ 500,000 minimum to $ 150,000 per investor where an offering memorandum must contain a forecast or projection, and the possible introduction of a safe harbour provision for any issuer who, in good faith, prepares FOFI, are being considered

  13. US refining capacity for Canadian heavy oil : current overview and future potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paget, S.

    2006-01-01

    This presentation provided an overview of the Canadian oil sands industry and investigated the potential heavy oil refining capacity of the United States. An outline of the first commercial developments of steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) in Alberta's oil sands was provided. Canada's reserves were compared with oil shale and heavy oil reserves in the United States and Venezuela. Influences of Canadian developments from western Canadian conventional crude oil were reviewed, and an oil sands production forecast was provided. Recent refining developments in the United States include delayed coking; catalytic cracking; fluid coking; flexicoking; and LC-fining. However, many oil sand producers are now choosing to upgrade oil, and producers are currently saturating United States markets with heavy crude oil. Canadian crude prices reached $90 per barrel in 2006. Heavy oil pipelines are now being constructed and existing heavy oil pipelines are being expanded. ConocoPhillips is planning to invest $1 billion for a new heavy oil coker, while BP is investing $3 billion for a heavy oil refinery in Indiana which plans to refine Canadian crude oil supplies. However, bitumens from Alberta are volatile in price, and excess Canadian production must be exported. Less than 10 per cent of western Canadian crude has tidewater access, and capital providers are concerned about cost over-runs. In order for the Canadian oil sands industry to succeed, refining capacity in the United States must be expanded, and open access must be provided to the Gulf coast as well as to the Pacific Ocean. tabs., figs

  14. Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paterson, R Russell M; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni; Lima, Nelson

    2015-09-24

    The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) (Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

  15. Effects of synthetic oil in a compression refrigeration system using R410A. Part II: quality of heat transfer and pressure losses within the heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lottin, O.; Guillemet, P. [Ecole Polytechnique de l' Universite de Nantes (France). Laboratoire de Thermocinetique; Lebreton, J-M. [Electricite de France, Moret sur Loing (France)

    2003-11-01

    The consequences of the oil rejected by the compressor of a vapour-compression refrigeration system on the operation of the evaporator and condenser are analysed. The modelled prototype uses the mixture of HFC R410A and a synthetic polyolester (POE) oil. The rise of the amount of lubricant circulating in the system leads to a progressive change in the behaviour of the mixture of refrigerant and oil that, for the higher oil mass fraction, evolves like a zeotropic mixture. One also observes that the presence of lubricant is generally associated with a fall of the performances of the heat exchangers, except however in the evaporator where an optimum is observed when the quantity of oil is equal to 0.1% of the total mass of the mixture. Some conclusions are drawn about the choice of correlations for the calculation of the refrigerant side heat transfer coefficient in a plate evaporator. (author)

  16. 76 FR 18818 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-04-05

    ... Proposed Rule Change Relating to Listing and Trading CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index Security Futures March... Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ'') security futures contract. The text of the proposed rule change is... security futures on the CBOE Gold ETF Volatility Index (``GVZ'' or ``GVZ Index''). Chicago Board Options...

  17. Oil Dependence, Climate Change and Energy Security: Will Constraints on Oil Shape our Climate Future or Vice Versa?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mignone, B. K.

    2008-12-01

    Threats to US and global energy security take several forms. First, the overwhelming dependence on oil in the transport sector leaves the US economy (and others) vulnerable to supply shocks and price volatility. Secondly, the global dependence on oil inflates prices and enhances the transfer of wealth to authoritarian regimes. Finally, the global reliance on fossil fuels more generally jeopardizes the stability of the climate system. These three threats - economic, strategic and environmental - can only be mitigated through a gradual substitution away from fossil fuels (both coal and oil) on a global scale. Such large-scale substitution could occur in response to potential resource constraints or in response to coordinated government policies in which these externalities are explicitly internalized. Here, I make use of a well-known integrated assessment model (MERGE) to examine both possibilities. When resource limits are considered alone, global fuel use tends to shift toward even more carbon-intensive resources, like oil shale or liquids derived from coal. On the other hand, when explicit carbon constraints are imposed, the fuel sector response is more complex. Generally, less stringent climate targets can be satisfied entirely through reductions in global coal consumption, while more stringent targets require simultaneous reductions in both coal and oil consumption. Taken together, these model results suggest that resource constraints alone will only exacerbate the climate problem, while a subset of policy-driven carbon constraints may yield tangible security benefits (in the form of reduced global oil consumption) in addition to the intended environmental outcome.

  18. The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

    2018-01-18

    Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

  19. Research on Land Surface Thermal-Hydrologic Exchange in Southern China under Future Climate and Land Cover Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwu Yan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change inevitably leads to changes in hydrothermal circulation. However, thermal-hydrologic exchanging caused by land cover change has also undergone ineligible changes. Therefore, studying the comprehensive effects of climate and land cover changes on land surface water and heat exchanges enables us to well understand the formation mechanism of regional climate and predict climate change with fewer uncertainties. This study investigated the land surface thermal-hydrologic exchange across southern China for the next 40 years using a land surface model (ecosystem-atmosphere simulation scheme (EASS. Our findings are summarized as follows. (i Spatiotemporal variation patterns of sensible heat flux (H and evapotranspiration (ET under the land cover scenarios (A2a or B2a and climate change scenario (A1B are unanimous. (ii Both H and ET take on a single peak pattern, and the peak occurs in June or July. (iii Based on the regional interannual variability analysis, H displays a downward trend (10% and ET presents an increasing trend (15%. (iv The annual average H and ET would, respectively, increase and decrease by about 10% when woodland converts to the cultivated land. Through this study, we recognize that land surface water and heat exchanges are affected greatly by the future climate change as well as land cover change.

  20. Role of clove oil in solvent exchange-induced doxycycline hyclate-loaded Eudragit RS in situ forming gel

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thawatchai Phaechamud

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Solvent exchange induced in situ forming gel (ISG is the promising drug delivery system for periodontitis treatment owing to the prospect of maintaining an effective high drug level in the gingival crevicular fluid. In the present study, the influence of clove oil (CO on the characteristics of doxycycline hyclate (DH-loaded ISG comprising Eudragit RS (ERS was investigated including viscosity/rheology, syringeability, in vitro gel formation/drug release, matrix formation/solvent diffusion and antimicrobial activities. CO could dissolve ERS and increase the viscosity of ISG and its hydrophobicity could also retard the diffusion of solvent and hinder the drug diffusion; thus, the minimization of burst effect and sustained drug release were achieved effectively. All the prepared ISGs comprising CO could expel through the 27-gauge needle for administration by injection and transform into matrix depot after exposure to the simulated gingival crevicular fluid. The antimicrobial activities against Staphylococcus aureus, Escherichia coli, Streptococcus mutans and Porphyromonas gingivalis were increased when the ratio of CO and N-methyl pyrrolidone (NMP was decreased from 1:1 to 1:10 owing to higher diffusion of DH except that for C. albicans was increased as CO amount was higher. Therefore, CO could minimize the burst while prolonging the drug release of DH-loaded ERS ISG for use as a local drug delivery system for periodontitis treatment. Keywords: In situ forming gel, Eudragit RS, Clove oil, Doxycycline hyclate, Periodonditis, Burst release

  1. 75 FR 76772 - Bureau of Educational and Cultural Affairs Request for Grant Proposals: Future Leaders Exchange...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-09

    ... Diversity, Freedom and Democracy Guidelines Pursuant to the Bureau's authorizing legislation, programs must... encompass differences including, but not limited to ethnicity, race, gender, religion, geographic location... educational and cultural exchange in countries whose people do not fully enjoy freedom and democracy, the...

  2. 78 FR 3949 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; CBOE Futures Exchange, LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-17

    ... amounts vary depending on the nature of the underlying violative conduct. This is because CFE regards... requires that each TPH have at all times at least one employee or agent (``Responsible Trader'') designated... violative conduct. The Exchange also may aggregate similar violations generally if the conduct was...

  3. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  4. Volatility Spillovers and Causality of Carbon Emissions, Oil and Coal Spot and Futures for the EU and USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Lin Chang

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Recent research shows that the efforts to limit climate change should focus on reducing the emissions of carbon dioxide over other greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Many countries are paying substantial attention to carbon emissions to improve air quality and public health. The largest source of carbon emissions from human activities in some countries in Europe and elsewhere is from burning fossil fuels for electricity, heat, and transportation. The prices of fuel and carbon emissions can influence each other. Owing to the importance of carbon emissions and their connection to fossil fuels, and the possibility of [1] Granger (1980 causality in spot and futures prices, returns, and volatility of carbon emissions, crude oil and coal have recently become very important research topics. For the USA, daily spot and futures prices are available for crude oil and coal, but there are no daily futures prices for carbon emissions. For the European Union (EU, there are no daily spot prices for coal or carbon emissions, but there are daily futures prices for crude oil, coal and carbon emissions. For this reason, daily prices will be used to analyse Granger causality and volatility spillovers in spot and futures prices of carbon emissions, crude oil, and coal. As the estimators are based on quasi-maximum likelihood estimators (QMLE under the incorrect assumption of a normal distribution, we modify the likelihood ratio (LR test to a quasi-likelihood ratio test (QLR to test the multivariate conditional volatility Diagonal BEKK model, which estimates and tests volatility spillovers, and has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties, against the alternative Full BEKK model, which also estimates volatility spillovers, but has valid regularity conditions and asymptotic properties only under the null hypothesis of zero off-diagonal elements. Dynamic hedging strategies by using optimal hedge ratios are suggested to analyse market fluctuations in the

  5. Il cambio dollaro/euro, il prezzo del petrolio e la Banca Centrale Europea (Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate, Oil Price and the European Central Bank

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Sylos Labini

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper an analysis on dollar/euro exchange rate, oil price and European Central Bank monetary policy is worked out. Firstly, data on the main variables related with the exchange rate and an equation to explain the variation of the exchange rate in the period March 1998-September 2000 are presented; secondly, the consequences of oil price growth and eurodevaluation on the US and European economies are taken into account; lastly, different policy strategies to stop eurodevaluation are discussed. The European Central Bank strategy, that consists of small increases of the interest rate, is not reaching any result. An alternative strategy is based on innovative public demand, that should be financed by European bonds using "central bank excess funds" as security. Public demand of infrastructures and new technologies should aim at reducing oil dependence and would stimulate growth and sustainable development in Europe, with positive effects on the exchange rate.       JEL Codes: E58, F31Keywords: Devaluation, Exchange Rates, Monetary

  6. Palm oil - towards a sustainable future? : Challanges and opportunites for the Swedish food industry

    OpenAIRE

    Nilsson, Sara

    2013-01-01

    The food industry faces problems relating to the sustainability of palm oil as a food commodity. These problem areas include social, environmental, economic and health issues. The food industry also competes with increasing palm oil demands from the energy sector. This case study identifies and analyzes different perspectives regarding sustainable palm oil as a food commodity in Sweden through interviews with palm oil experts in different businesses and organizations. This study focuses on ho...

  7. 78 FR 26319 - Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill; Proposal of Future Early Restoration Projects and Environmental Reviews

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-06

    ... selected and implemented in accordance with the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 (OPA), the Framework Agreement... oil spill under the Oil Pollution Act 1990 (OPA; 33 U.S.C. 2701 et seq.). Pursuant to OPA, federal and... cost of this project is approximately $3.5 million. Sea Rim State Park Amenities (Jefferson County...

  8. Intercomparison and harmonization of methodologies, identification of future objectives in radioecology, training and exchange of scientists

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aarkrog, A.

    1993-01-01

    Global objectives of the project are: cooperation and the exchange of information between radioecologists from countries outside EC and from countries which are not associated with the Radiation Protection Research Programme, in order to stimulate interactions that would increase the understanding of Radioecology problems; training of young scientists will be emphasized in the IUR new programme; IUR will develop a curriculum for a basic course in radioecology; furthermore IUR will play various roles in the field of informing the public. (R.P.)

  9. Bottom-up design of a gas futures market in East Asia: Lessons from the Dojima rice exchange

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xunpeng Shi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The natural gas market in East Asia remains fragmented without a functioning benchmark price to duly reflect the dynamics of demand and supply forces in the region. A functional regional gas futures market, which is highly dependent on the presence of well-developed physical spot trading, is yet to be established. Since the intra-regional pipeline connection is largely non-existent in East Asia, it is the LNG spot cargo trading that is likely to become the basis for the regional gas futures market. This paper offers a novel approach to understanding the development of such a market by analyzing the experience of a different commodity market – the Dojima Rice Exchange (DRE – and identifying potentially transferrable lessons in the market design and the role of government regulations. Based on the case study analysis, implications for the development of natural gas trading hubs in East Asia are offered and an LNG futures exchange design is put forward.

  10. The price path due to order imbalances: evidence from the Amsterdam agricultural futures exchange.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Kuiper, W.E.; Hofstede, ter F.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1998-01-01

    The lack of sufficient market depth particularly in many newly initiated futures markets results in relatively high hedging costs, and this inhibits the growth of futures contract volume. In this article the price path due to order imbalances is analyzed and a two-dimensional market depth measure is

  11. Cracks in the crystal ball : What happens to firms’ foreign exchange rate exposure when forecasters don’t agree about the future

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A. Muller (Aline); J. Poncelet (Julien); W.F.C. Verschoor (Willem); R.C.J. Zwinkels (Remco)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractThe central issue of this paper is whether stock prices are exposed to total exchange rate movements – as traditionally measured – or to revisions in expected future exchange rate movements and unanticipated currency shocks, and by how much of each. Based on a sample of 1675 U.S. firms

  12. Oil market in Asia. Now and future up to year 2000 and beyond

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shibutani, Yu

    1995-01-01

    Asia's growing oil demand will be met by imports from the Middle East to an overwhelmingly extent. Therefore, more refining capacity will be needed to cope with the oil demand. New refineries will require the increasingly sophisticated technology to produce higher yields of transportation fuels and older ones will have to be upgrated, which will reshape the integration of downstream activities in this region. Further, East Asia, including China, as a net importer of oil, is vulnerable because of low oil sufficiency and inadequate stockpiling, while oil demand is increasing at remarkable rates. (author)

  13. Drivers of Land Use Change and the Role of Palm Oil Production in Indonesia and Malaysia. Overview of Past Developments and Future Projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wicke, Birka; Sikkema, Richard; Dornburg, Veronika; Junginger, Martin; Faaij, Andre

    2008-07-01

    This study provides insight into land use changes (LUC) in Indonesia and Malaysia and into the specific role that palm oil production and its expansion have played in the past and may play in the future in both countries. In relation to future land use changes induced by palm oil production expansion also the GHG emissions of this LUC are analysed to indicate the sustainability (from a GHG emission perspective) of the various palm oil expansion projections

  14. Proceedings of the CERI 2002 World Oil Conference : Reading the Future. CD ed.

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    The integration and expansion of world oil markets was the main topic of this conference which featured 18 presentations dealing with developments in the international energy sector. The conference provided an opportunity for participants to discuss issues regarding oil supply and demand, oil prices, OPEC's spare capacity, OPEC's view regarding increasing competition from Canada's oil sands, and what role non-conventional oil plays in today's marketplace. The conference was divided into 6 sessions entitled: (1) oil prices, business as usual, (2) world oil demand, the incredible shrinking market, (3) global oil supplies, (4) going offshore, (5) the politics of oil, and (6) the growing North American supply. The outlook of world energy markets was reviewed with particular emphasis on prospects for oil supply and reserves. Also, the current status of the petroleum industry in both OPEC and non-OPEC oil exporting countries was discussed with reference to exploration, production, reserves, and hydrocarbon potential as well as the environmental, and socio-economic challenges that the industry must face. refs., tabs., figs

  15. Esterification of free fatty acids in waste cooking oils (WCO): Role of ion-exchange resins

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nalan Ozbay; Nuray Oktar; N. Alper Tapan [Gazi University, Ankara (Turkey). Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Chemical Engineering

    2008-08-15

    Although WCO plays a crucial role for the economical production of biodiesel, free fatty acid (FFA) level in the nature of WCO cause saponification problems during transesterification. Acidic ion-exchange resins can be used to decrease WCO free fatty acid level. In this study, activities of resins (Amberlyst-15 (A-15), Amberlyst-35 (A-35), Amberlyst-16 (A-16) and Dowex HCR-W2) in direct FFA esterification were examined in the temperature range of 50-60{sup o}C and the effect of catalyst amount (1-2 wt%) on FFA conversion was also analyzed. FFA conversion increased with increasing reaction temperature and catalyst amount. Order of catalytic activities was found as A-15 > A-35 > A-16 > Dowex HCR-W2. This was related to the size of average pore diameters and magnitude of BET surface area. 44 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. Future strategies for oil shale development as a new indigenous energy resource in Jordan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaber, J.O.; Tarawneh, T.

    2011-01-01

    Indigenous oil shale deposits could satisfy Jordan's demand for liquid and gaseous fuels as well as electricity for many centuries. Markets also exist for raw and retorted oil shale, spent shale, and for sulfur recovered during the upgrading and refining of crude shale oil. Although the potential benefits of oil shale development are substantial, complex and expensive facilities would be required, and these have serious economic, environmental, and social implications for the Kingdom and its people. In January 2006, the United States Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) awarded a grant to the Jordanian Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation to support the analysis of current oil shale processing technologies and the application of international expertise to the development of a oil shale industry in Jordan. The goal of the technical assistance project was to help the Government of Jordan (GoJ) establish short and long-term strategies for oil shale development and to facilitate the commercial production of shale oil in the country. This paper discusses the results of the project. The Kingdom's current energy situation and its previous work on oil shale are summarized, and the incentives and restraints on oil shale commercialization are described. Impediments to development are identified, and possible governmental responses are assessed. (author)

  17. A Review of the Experimental and Modeling Development of a Water Phase Change Heat Exchanger for Future Exploration Support Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cognata, Thomas; Leimkuehler, Thomas; Ramaswamy, Balasubramaniam; Nayagam, Vedha; Hasan, Mohammad; Stephan, Ryan

    2011-01-01

    Water affords manifold benefits for human space exploration. Its properties make it useful for the storage of thermal energy as a Phase Change Material (PCM) in thermal control systems, in radiation shielding against Solar Particle Events (SPE) for the protection of crew members, and it is indisputably necessary for human life support. This paper envisions a single application for water which addresses these benefits for future exploration support vehicles and it describes recent experimental and modeling work that has been performed in order to arrive at a description of the thermal behavior of such a system. Experimental units have been developed and tested which permit the evaluation of the many parameters of design for such a system with emphasis on the latent energy content, temperature rise, mass, and interstitial material geometry. The experimental results are used to develop a robust and well correlated model which is intended to guide future design efforts toward the multi-purposed water PCM heat exchanger envisioned.

  18. Sustainable Energy Consumption in Northeast Asia: A Case from China’s Fuel Oil Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The sustainable energy consumption in northeast Asia has a huge impact on regional stability and economic growth, which gives price volatility research in the energy market both theoretical value and practical application. We select China’s fuel oil futures market as a research subject and use recurrence interval analysis to investigate the price volatility pattern in different thresholds. We utilize the stretched exponential function to fit the pattern of the recurrence intervals of price fluctuations and find that the probability density functions of the recurrence intervals in different thresholds do not show the scaling behavior. Then the conditional probability density function and detrended fluctuation analysis prove that there is short-term and long-term correlation. Last, we use a hazard function to introduce the recurrence intervals into the (value at risk VaR calculation and establish a functional relationship between the mean recurrence interval and the threshold. Following this result, we also shed light on policy discussion for hedgers and government.

  19. Oil-based technology and economy prospects for the future. A short introduction to basic issues and a review of oil depletion projections derived from different theories and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-12-01

    Recognising the world economy's technological dependence on oil and, hence, the serious consequences of a decline in oil production for which the world community is technologically unprepared, The Danish Board of Technology and The Society of Danish Engineers wish to draw attention to the issue and to the different analyses of oil resources and future oil production potentials published by various researchers and institutions, In pursuance of this objective, the two institutions have jointly commissioned this review and organised the conference Oil Demand, Production and Cost - Prospects for the Future. The aim of the review is to outline the characteristics of the cheap-oil economy and provide the participants in the conference and other interested parties with an overview of different scenarios for the future development in demand and supply, presented by various experienced researchers and institutions who base their analyses on different methodologies. The evidence thus provided should constitute a structured framework for the discussion at the conference. (BA)

  20. Oil-Free Shaft Support System Rotordynamics: Past, Present, and Future Challenges and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    DellaCorte, Christopher

    2011-01-01

    Recent breakthroughs in Oil-Free technologies have enabled new high-speed rotor systems and turbomachinery. Such technologies can include compliant-surface gas bearings, magnetic bearings, and advanced solid lubricants and tribo-materials. This presentation briefly reviews critical technology developments and the current state-of-the-art, emerging Oil-Free rotor systems and discusses obstacles preventing more widespread use. Key examples of "best practices" for deploying Oil-Free technologies will be presented and remaining major technical questions surrounding Oil-Free technologies will be brought forward.

  1. Climate change, future Arctic Sea ice, and the competitiveness of European Arctic offshore oil and gas production on world markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrick, Sebastian; Riemann-Campe, Kathrin; Hoog, Sven; Growitsch, Christian; Schwind, Hannah; Gerdes, Rüdiger; Rehdanz, Katrin

    2017-12-01

    A significant share of the world's undiscovered oil and natural gas resources are assumed to lie under the seabed of the Arctic Ocean. Up until now, the exploitation of the resources especially under the European Arctic has largely been prevented by the challenges posed by sea ice coverage, harsh weather conditions, darkness, remoteness of the fields, and lack of infrastructure. Gradual warming has, however, improved the accessibility of the Arctic Ocean. We show for the most resource-abundant European Arctic Seas whether and how a climate induced reduction in sea ice might impact future accessibility of offshore natural gas and crude oil resources. Based on this analysis we show for a number of illustrative but representative locations which technology options exist based on a cost-minimization assessment. We find that under current hydrocarbon prices, oil and gas from the European offshore Arctic is not competitive on world markets.

  2. Ecosystem-atmosphere exchange of carbon in a heathland under future climatic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selsted, Merete Bang

    understanding plant and soil responses to such changes are necessary, as ecosystems potentially can ameliorate or accelerate global change. To predict the feedback of ecosystems to the atmospheric CO2 concentrations experiments imitating global change effects are therefore an important tool. This work....... Fluxes of CO2 from soil to atmosphere depend on a physical equilibrium between those two medias, why it is important to keep the CO2 gradient between soil and atmosphere unchanged during measurement. Uptake to plants via photosynthesis depends on a physiological process, which depends strongly...... on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Photosynthesis and respiration run in parallel during measurements of net ecosystem exchange, and these measurements should therefore be performed with care to both the atmospheric CO2 concentration and the CO2 soil-atmosphere gradient....

  3. Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman

    2009-01-01

    For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

  4. Malaysian palm oil. Surviving the food versus fuel dispute for a sustainable future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lam, Man Kee; Tan, Kok Tat; Lee, Keat Teong; Mohamed, Abdul Rahman [School of Chemical Engineering, Engineering Campus, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 14300 Nibong Tebal, Seberang Perai Selatan, Pulau Pinang (Malaysia)

    2009-08-15

    For the past few decades, palm oil has gone through a revolution that few would have predicted. From a humble source of edible oil that was heavily criticized as being un-healthy and un-fit for human consumption, it has proven itself based on scientific findings that it is indeed one of the most nutritious edible oils in the world. Besides, palm oil, the cheapest vegetable oil in the market has diversified as one of the main feedstock for oleo-chemical industries. Recently, with the price of crude petroleum hitting records height every other day, palm oil has become one of the few feasible sources for biodiesel, a renewable substitute for petroleum-derived diesel. Nevertheless, the conversion of palm oil into biodiesel has again received criticism from various NGOs worldwide, mainly on extinction of orang utans, deforestation and particularly the food versus fuel dispute. It was claimed that the conversion of food crops to fuel would significantly increase the number of undernourished people in the world. Malaysia, being the world second largest producer of palm oil, is not spared from this criticism. On the contrary, in the present study it was found that palm oil is indeed the most economical and sustainable source of food and biofuel in the world market. Besides, it was shown that it has the capacity to fulfill both demands simultaneously rather than engaging in priority debate. Nevertheless, fuel is now a necessity rather than a luxury for economy and development purposes. A few strategies will then be presented on how palm oil can survive in this feud and emerged as the main supply of affordable and healthy source of edible oil while concurrently satisfying the market demand for biodiesel throughout the world. (author)

  5. Structure-dependent degradation of polar compounds in weathered oils observed by atmospheric pressure photo-ionization hydrogen/deuterium exchange ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Islam, Ananna; Kim, Donghwi [Kyungpook National University, Department of Chemistry, Daegu 702-701 (Korea, Republic of); Yim, Un Hyuk; Shim, Won Joon [Oil and POPs Research Group, Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology, KIOST, Geoje 656-834 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sunghwan, E-mail: sunghwank@knu.ac.kr [Kyungpook National University, Department of Chemistry, Daegu 702-701 (Korea, Republic of); Green Nano Center, Department of Chemistry, Daegu 702-701 (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • We examined source crude oil and weathered oils from M/V Hebei accident. • APPI hydrogen/deuterium exchange ultrahigh mass spectrometry was applied. • N{sub 1} class compounds with 2° and/or 3° amine decrease in larger scale than pyridines. • Preferential degradation of nitrogen-containing compounds was confirmed. • Significant increase in S{sub 1}O{sub 1} compounds was observed as the weathering proceeds. - Abstract: The resin fractions of fresh mixtures of three oils spilled during the M/V Hebei Spirit oil spill, as well as weathered oils collected at weathering stages II and IV from the oil spill site were analyzed and compared by atmospheric pressure photo-ionization hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX MS). The significantly decreased abundance of N{sup +}· and [N − H + D]{sup +} ions suggested that secondary and tertiary amine-containing compounds were preferentially degraded during the early stage of weathering. [N + H]{sup +} and [N + D]{sup +} ions previously attributed to pyridine-type compounds degraded more slowly than secondary and tertiary amine-containing compounds. The preferential degradation of nitrogen-containing compounds was confirmed by photo-degradation experiments using 15 standard compounds. In addition, significant increases of [S{sub 1}O{sub 1} + H]{sup +} and [S{sub 1}O{sub 1} + D]{sup +} ions with higher DBE values were observed from fresh oil mixtures as compared to stages II and IV samples, and that could be linked with the decrease of higher DBE compounds of the S{sub 1} class. This study presented convincing arguments and evidence demonstrating that secondary and tertiary amines were more vulnerable to photo-degradation than compounds containing pyridine, and hence, preferential degradation depending on chemical structures must be considered in the production of hazardous or toxic components.

  6. Structure-dependent degradation of polar compounds in weathered oils observed by atmospheric pressure photo-ionization hydrogen/deuterium exchange ultrahigh resolution mass spectrometry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Islam, Ananna; Kim, Donghwi; Yim, Un Hyuk; Shim, Won Joon; Kim, Sunghwan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • We examined source crude oil and weathered oils from M/V Hebei accident. • APPI hydrogen/deuterium exchange ultrahigh mass spectrometry was applied. • N 1 class compounds with 2° and/or 3° amine decrease in larger scale than pyridines. • Preferential degradation of nitrogen-containing compounds was confirmed. • Significant increase in S 1 O 1 compounds was observed as the weathering proceeds. - Abstract: The resin fractions of fresh mixtures of three oils spilled during the M/V Hebei Spirit oil spill, as well as weathered oils collected at weathering stages II and IV from the oil spill site were analyzed and compared by atmospheric pressure photo-ionization hydrogen/deuterium exchange mass spectrometry (HDX MS). The significantly decreased abundance of N + · and [N − H + D] + ions suggested that secondary and tertiary amine-containing compounds were preferentially degraded during the early stage of weathering. [N + H] + and [N + D] + ions previously attributed to pyridine-type compounds degraded more slowly than secondary and tertiary amine-containing compounds. The preferential degradation of nitrogen-containing compounds was confirmed by photo-degradation experiments using 15 standard compounds. In addition, significant increases of [S 1 O 1 + H] + and [S 1 O 1 + D] + ions with higher DBE values were observed from fresh oil mixtures as compared to stages II and IV samples, and that could be linked with the decrease of higher DBE compounds of the S 1 class. This study presented convincing arguments and evidence demonstrating that secondary and tertiary amines were more vulnerable to photo-degradation than compounds containing pyridine, and hence, preferential degradation depending on chemical structures must be considered in the production of hazardous or toxic components

  7. Geoperspective | Oil and Gas in the Netherlands – Is there a future?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Herber, R.; Jager, J. de

    2010-01-01

    The impact of oil and, in particular, gas fields discovered in the Dutch subsurface has been very significant. However, 50 years after the discovery of the giant Groningen gas field the Netherlands has become very mature for exploration of oil and gas, and the gas volume left to be discovered in

  8. Effects of land use on surface–atmosphere exchanges of trace gases and energy in Borneo: comparing fluxes over oil palm plantations and a rainforest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, David; Nemitz, Eiko; Misztal, Pawel; Di Marco, Chiara; Skiba, Ute; Ryder, James; Helfter, Carole; Cape, J. Neil; Owen, Sue; Dorsey, James; Gallagher, Martin W.; Coyle, Mhairi; Phillips, Gavin; Davison, Brian; Langford, Ben; MacKenzie, Rob; Muller, Jennifer; Siong, Jambery; Dari-Salisburgo, Cesare; Di Carlo, Piero; Aruffo, Eleonora; Giammaria, Franco; Pyle, John A.; Hewitt, C. Nicholas

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports measurements of land–atmosphere fluxes of sensible and latent heat, momentum, CO2, volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NO, NO2, N2O and O3 over a 30 m high rainforest canopy and a 12 m high oil palm plantation in the same region of Sabah in Borneo between April and July 2008. The daytime maximum CO2 flux to the two canopies differs by approximately a factor of 2, 1200 mg C m−2 h−1 for the oil palm and 700 mg C m−2 h−1 for the rainforest, with the oil palm plantation showing a substantially greater quantum efficiency. Total VOC emissions are also larger over the oil palm than over the rainforest by a factor of 3. Emissions of isoprene from the oil palm canopy represented 80 per cent of the VOC emissions and exceeded those over the rainforest in similar light and temperature conditions by on average a factor of 5. Substantial emissions of estragole (1-allyl-4-methoxybenzene) from the oil palm plantation were detected and no trace of this VOC was detected in or above the rainforest. Deposition velocities for O3 to the rainforest were a factor of 2 larger than over oil palm. Emissions of nitrous oxide were larger from the soils of the oil palm plantation than from the soils of the rainforest by approximately 25 per cent. It is clear from the measurements that the large change in the species composition generated by replacing rainforest with oil palm leads to profound changes in the net exchange of most of the trace gases measured, and thus on the chemical composition of the boundary layer over these surfaces. PMID:22006962

  9. The impact of oil price volatility on the future of the U.S. economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boyd, Roy; Doroodian, K.; Thornton, Dennis

    2000-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of a foreign oil price shock on domestic energy markets as well as the U.S. economy as a whole. The analytical approach employed in the analysis consisted of a dynamic CGE model composed of eight production sectors, eight consumption sectors, three household categories classified by income, foreign sector, and the government. The results show that oil price shocks will have, as expected, a significantly positive effect on crude oil production. We also find that such price shocks negatively affect the refinery sector as input costs rise there. A decline in per-well productivity has the effect of dampening the rise in crude oil extraction and causing a further decline in refinery output. Economy-wide, the impact of a new series of oil price shocks is quite limited with overall welfare falling, but nowhere near the levels experienced in the 1970s and early 1980s. (Author)

  10. The price of oil and the future of Middle East Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki Yamani, A.

    1997-01-01

    Most LNG contracts relate the LNG price received by the supplier at the point of delivery to a relevant oil price. Gas and oil are thus closely connected so that when the price of landed oil decreases so dose the price of delivered LNG. With large fixed transportation and liquefaction costs, accounting for around 85% of the supply cost of delivered LNG in the case of Qatari LNG supplied to japan, you can imagine how large falls in the price paid for delivered LNG would squeeze the net back to the producer back in Qatar. However, low oil price can do some damage to the economics of existing LNG projects in the Middle East. More importantly, persistently low oil prices can prevent new LNG projects from leaving the drawing board-which will stifle the exciting export potential of Middle Eastern gas

  11. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noel, P.

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  12. International hedging under concurrent risks of input/output prices and exchange rate : The case of Korean oil refinery

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yun, W C; Kim, S D [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

    1997-11-01

    This study develops an international hedging model which accounts for the multiple risks of input and output prices and exchange rates. Considering a fixed production technology, we formulize simultaneous minimum variance hedge ratios, which reflects inter correlations among prices. To utilize the dynamic nature of prices, time-varying conditional procedures are specified to estimate the relevant variance and covariance matrix. The time-varying representations of the variance and covariance matrix are statistically appropriate, in general. The separate hedge ratios are similar to the simultaneous hedge ratios for alternative procedures. The ex post hedging effectiveness indicate that there are substantial reduction in the variance of returns for all the procedures. The contribution of foreign currency futures is minimal due to the low correlation between commodities and exchange rates. Based on the traditional definition of hedging effectiveness, the time-varying conditional procedure provide little gain to the hedgers over a constant procedure in terms of the mean and the variance reduction. However, the performance of conditional procedures could be improved by accounting for the potential problems: mis specification problem, inappropriate definition of hedging effectiveness, and conflicts between theoretical derivation and estimation of hedge ratios. (author). 39 refs., 6 tabs.

  13. The Threats from Oil Spills: Now, Then, and in the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jerneloev, Arne (Vienna (Austria)), e-mail: arne.jernelov@chello.at

    2010-07-15

    The recent oil spill from the blown-out well by the name of Macondo, drilled by the ill-fated rig Deepwater Horizon, has many features in common with another blowout in the Mexican Gulf that happened three decades ago. Then the oil gushed out from the Ixtoc I well drilled by the Sedco 135-F semi-submersible rig. In the years between these catastrophes, the source and nature of oil spills have undergone large changes. Huge spills from tankers that ran aground or collided used to be what caught the headlines and caused large ecological damage. The number and size of such accidental spills have decreased significantly. Instead, spills from ageing, ill-maintained or sabotaged pipelines have increased, and places like Arctic Russia, the Niger Delta, and the northwestern Amazon have become sites of reoccurring oil pollution. As for blowouts, there is no clear trend with regard to the number of incidences or amounts of spilled oil, but deepwater blowouts are much harder to cap and thus tend to go on longer and result in the release of larger quantities of oil. Also, oil exploration and extraction is moving into ever deeper water and into stormier and icier seas, increasing potential risks. The risk for reoccurring spills like the two huge Mexican Gulf ones is eminent and must be reduced

  14. Our energy future is not set in stone. How can the demand for oil and gas in 2035 be met?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Charlez, Philippe A.

    2014-01-01

    If technology is an undeniable catalyst for progress, then energy is its inevitable basic food. It is no coincidence that since the industrial revolution, economic growth has been fuelled first by coal, then by oil and gas. Although energy intensity reserves are still sizeable in emerging economies and the technological catalyst can partially dematerialise growth, it is unrealistic to separate growth from its basic food. And, even if the 'fossil energies share' (oil/gas/coal) will lose a few percent to nuclear and renewable energies over the next decades, all the indicators point to a world mix in which the fossil energy share will still top 75% by 2035. Driven by growth in emerging countries, the demand for oil and gas will continue to grow steadily. Even if there are enough oil and gas reserves to see us through the next three decades, will the industry be able to exploit and produce new resources that are increasingly complex to develop at a sufficient rate and which are often located in politically unstable countries? Not to mention the added challenge of the growing numbers of stakeholders who are increasingly insistent on industrial safety, environment and societal issues? In particular, will non-conventional resources, whose production growth could defer the oil and gas peaks by several decades, be able to withstand political and environmental lobbies? The evolution of oil and gas landscape over the past few years reveals a disturbing increase in the time required to develop large new fields and an accelerated decline of the production base due to the ageing of most of the mature-field facilities. This book aims to analyze all the critical factors (technical, political, economic, social and human) that could potentially accelerate or delay the maintenance and redevelopment of mature producing fields as well as the discovery and development of new conventional and unconventional resources. Insofar as in 2035, oil and gas still account for more than half of

  15. Recent and future developments of the oil industry in Russian Federation and more particularly in the Republic of Baskortostan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garifullin, R.

    2001-09-01

    The objective of the thesis is to analyse the actual situation in the Russian oil industry and to envisage basic ways if its future development. The first chapter evaluates the place of the former USSR and Russia in the world and particularly European systems of energy supply. The three next chapters analyse the currents situation in the sectors of oil exploration and production, logistics and refining in Russia. The fifth chapter aims to figure out the perspectives of the refining industry taking into account the evolution of demand for basic petroleum products and the production capacities. Optimisation of refining and production volumes between the Russian refineries is done by minimising the transportation cost between the refineries and consuming regions by using linear programming. The last chapter analyses the regional impacts of the oil industry taking the Republic of Baskortostan as example. The contribution of the oil industry to regional development is evaluated in the framework of the export base theory using the Input-Output analysis as mathematical tool. (author)

  16. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

  17. The future of Alberta's oil and gas: Long-term strategies necessary to sustain markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers predicts that based on current combustion and depending on world oil prices, Canadian oil sands can supply North American demand for 40 years and Canadian natural gas can meet North American requirements for 20 years. Natural gas production in the U.S. is greater in total energy output than oil production of the world's largest oil producer, Saudi Arabia. At the same time the U.S. gas industry is confronting a unique and profound combination of events, namely it is facing the first true shortage of deliverable reserves in its history. This may be harsh news for the consumer, however, for Alberta's oil and gas industry, the new world energy order has the potential to be a huge blessing. With relatively large, unexploited oil and gas reserves and a next door neighbour with the world's most voracious appetite for fossil fuels, it is inevitable that much of this shortage is going to be satisfied by oil and gas from Canadian sources. Nevertheless, there are some barriers to be overcome. The greatest barriers to an assured U. S. market for Canadian oil and gas is competition from Venezuelan heavy crude and synthetic crude and light sour crude from the Gulf of Mexico. To assure a ready market for Canadian heavy crude in the U. S. Midwest, Canadian producers need to be pro-active in working with U. S. refiners to develop new conversion capacity, or develop upgrading in Canada. Mexico and Venezuela have been successfully participating in major U. S. expansions in coker projects to allow projects to run heavy crude. This will eventually result in an additional 600,000 barrels per day of heavy crude available on the U. S. market, putting further pressure on Canadian markets. The challenge is for Albertan producers to undertake similar strategies with U. S. Midwest refiners for heavy and synthetic crude. Long-term supply arrangements appear to be the only way to induce American Midwest refiners to make more investment to process

  18. Balancing functional and nutritional quality of oils and fats: Current requirements and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Van den Bremt Karen

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Oils and fats play an important role in the structure, aroma and stability of a wide variety of food products, as well as in their nutritional properties. For Puratos, a producer of ingredients for bakery, patisserie and chocolate sector, functionality and taste are of utmost importance, but the company also wants to contribute to the balanced diet of consumers. Vegetable oils and fats are used in margarines and releasing agents, vegetable creams, compound chocolate, fillings and emulsifiers. Each application requires an oil or fat with specific physicochemical properties in order to ensure the optimal structure, stability and taste of the end product. Traditionally, (partially hydrogenated vegetable oils deliver important functional characteristics concerning crystallization behaviour, directly linked with the workability, melting properties, stability and mouth feel of the food product. However, due to negative nutritional implications, trans fats are to be replaced by healthier alternatives, preferably not by saturated fats. Consumers – and in some regions, legal instances – demand transfree or hydro-free products while not compromising on taste. Alternative fats and oils will be discussed concerning their functional and nutritional properties.

  19. The future world oil market: state of nature or social contract?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Noel, P

    1999-10-01

    Mary Ann Tetreault develops a very interesting interpretation of the emerging new relationship between international oil companies and Middle East producing countries. The original intellectual tools she handles-concepts drawn from the European political philosophy tradition-allow her to argue as follows: (1) the oil market left to itself- whether participants are states or firms-behaves like a Hobbesian ''state of nature'' often resulting in a situation damaging to each participant; (2) to deal with it, the international oil community has historically relied on different types of organisations, but these social contracts or ''republics'' were inherently unstable since they rested on too narrowly defined interests; (3) the rationale behind the possible return of oil companies to the richest Middle East countries is the search for new ''international oil republics'' able to ''offer greater security and higher profits for all the good republicans among them''. (author)

  20. On the future role of Gulf oil in meeting world energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagy Eltony, M.

    1996-01-01

    The validity of the view of a growing dependence of the world on oil from the Persian Gulf, and the resulting implications for the economies of the Gulf countries were examined. The prevailing view in the countries of the Persian Gulf is that the demand for oil will continue to rise, resulting in the inevitable increase in prices which will in turn alleviate the budget deficit problems currently encountered by most of the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states. The author argues that the implication of this view is that GCC countries are failing to address the fundamental structural problems within their economies, and raise questions that tend to undermine this hypothesis of continuing dependence on Gulf oil by the rest of the world. Some of these factors are growing reliance on electricity and natural gas, environmental concerns, development of alternative fuels, political instability in the Gulf states and the potential interruption in supply, all of which tend to accelerate the trend towards reduced demand for Gulf oil. The following have been recommended as ways of avoiding the ultimate risk of huge unwanted oil reserves: diversification of the economies of GCC countries; reduced spending and increased investment in developing further capacity from non-GCC sources through cooperation and joint ventures between developing countries and international companies; a more active role in worldwide decisions relating to environmental concerns; and finally, a systematic monitoring and evaluation of the likely impacts of new developments in all areas of alternative energy. 17 refs

  1. Implications for the future and recommendations for modifications to current regulations concerning virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peri, Claudio

    1994-04-01

    Full Text Available The main conclusions of the FLAIR project can be summarized as follows:
    1. The sensory wheel set up by the FLAIR team is proposed as a European standard to evaluate the sensory profile of extra virgin olive oil.
    2. Preference studies demonstrate that the sensory profile of extra virgin olive oil should be optimized as a function of consumer expectations. Once a sensory profile has been selected, it must be used as a reference for product standardization.
    3. Sensory analysis cannot be used as a legal tool for evaluating the quality or the origin of extra virgin olive oils. It is suggested that a sensory test can only be used as a legal tool if it is applied to assess the absence of defects. This implies a modification of the COI test.
    4. The Good Manufacturing Practices set up by the Flair team are proposed as a European standard for process control and quality system certification.
    5. Nutritional studies demonstrate that extra virgin olive oil has a noticeable in vivo antioxidant activity. This activity is related to the tocopherols and phenols content of oil and is highly varietydependent.

  2. Future role of the national oil companies in the world petroleum industry. [Of Arab states

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Taher, A H

    1977-11-01

    The history and role of national (i.e., multinational companies owned by an oil-exporting or -producing country) oil companies are outlined as they relate to international political and economic events. The governments of oil-exporting countries saw national oil companies as a way to gain some control over prices and revenues and to participate in development and marketing decisions. National companies can be more responsive to government policies than multinational companies during times of shortages. They provide a business arm to the government, which is politically involved in supply negotiations with other governments. National companies are felt to have a more stable position in terms of supplies, although their supplies may not be any more abundant. Multinationals will need increasingly selective investment activities after 1980 as government regulation and intervention changes market conditions. National companies may want to turn the marketing of crude oil over to the multinationals, while cooperating with them in exploration projects and the transfer of alternative energy technology. (DCK)

  3. Investing for the future : Athabasca Oil Sands Trust 1998 annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    The Athabasca Oil Sand Trust was created in 1995 when a subsidiary of the Trust, Athabasca Oil Sands Investment Inc., acquired Alberta's 11.74 per cent working interest in the Syncrude Project, which is a joint venture involved in the mining and upgrading of bitumen from the Athabasca oil sands. The Trust is a closed-end investment trust which was created to provide an opportunity for direct public investment in Syncrude and oil sands development in northern Alberta. Syncrude, produced a record 76.7 million barrels of Syncrude Sweet Blend (SSB), and shipped its one billionth barrel on April 16, 1998. Another key achievement in 1998 was the investment the Syncrude Joint Venture Partners of almost half a billion dollars to maintain Syncrude's operations and pursue the Business Plan growth targets outlined in last year's report. By aggressively pursuing this capital investment program despite the current low oil prices, the Syncrude Joint Venture Partners expect to double SSB production to 155 million barrels per year by 2007. The Athabasca Trust's share of these capital expenditures to fuel the projected growth in production is about $ 70 million this year and the next. The report provides operating statistics on production, financial highlights and consolidated balance sheets for 1998, including operating expenditures, capital expenditures, and the usual notes to the consolidated financial statement. 10 tabs., 2 figs

  4. Oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fabbri, S

    1909-11-29

    Mineral, shale, and like oils are treated successively with sulfuric acid, milk of lime, and a mixture of calcium oxide, sodium chloride, and water, and finally a solution of naphthalene in toluene is added. The product is suitable for lighting, and for use as a motor fuel; for the latter purpose, it is mixed with a light spirit.

  5. Biotechnology in breeding of industrial oil crops - the present status and future prospects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedt, W.

    1988-02-01

    With increasing 'overproduction' of food supplies it is frequently emphasized now that agricultural production of industrial 'non-food' raw materials should be intensified. Many adapted crop plants are already available for producing various kinds of natural materials. Particularly the large group of oil-crops could be used even more widely for providing vegetable oils. The example of rape-seed (Brassica Napus) clearly demonstrates that the composition of vegetable oil can be completely reconstructed according to the wishes of manufacturers or consumers, even by conventional breeding methods. Rapid and efficient breeding is expected by application of modern 'biotechnology'. Where variation for a character like oil-quality is limited within a crop plnt, a wide range of alien wild species is available for broadening genetic variation of plants like rapeseed, sunflower (Helianthus annuus) or linseed (flax, Linum usitatissimum). Exploration of such 'new' genetic variation is nowadays facilitated by in vitro embryo culture or cell (protoplast)-fusion techniques. Such biotechniques can help to overcome crossing barriers between species (genus Brassica). In other important oilcrops like linseed or sunflower, biotechniques can now be applied profitably. Protoplasts can be regenerated in Linum, so that asexual interspecific hybrids can principally be produced in that way. Alien species of sunflower and lineseed show a wide range of variation regarding agronomically important characters, particularly of oil composition and disease resistance. This alien genetic variation can be used for breeding new disease resistant oil-crop cultivars. Other techniques, like the 'haploidy-method' can help to accelerate a breeding programme, ultimately leading to a homozygous line or cultivar.

  6. Current status and future of developing Upper Cretaceous oil deposits in the Oktyabrskoye field

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kamyshnikova, A.I.; Lapshin, M.Ye.

    1979-01-01

    The Upper Cretaceous deposit at the Oktyabrskoye field was discovered in 1966. Fractured, cavernous limestone, similar to the producing rock of many Upper Cretaceous deposits of the Chechen Ingush ASSR, form the reservoir. The deposit is situated toward a narrow anticlinal fold with angles of rock drop 40-45/sup 0/. Its heighth is 950m; the average capacity of the producing part is 400m; the deposit depth is 4200-5150m; the layer temperature is 150-160/sup 0/C. Exploratory work on the deposit is incomplete. The deposit was brought under industrial development in 1974. The development is conducted based on a refined, technological system, that includes contour flooding to maintain layer pressure in the center to edge part of the deposit at 36.0 MPa. This somewhat increases the pressure of the gas saturated oil, as well as the subsequent increase in layer pressure to 45.9 MPa for assuring wide open well flow during the late stages of development. Currently, the amount of oil obtained somewhat exceeds the planned level but the pumping volume is less than that planned. The deposit has not yet been studied sufficiently. Its boundaries have not been established; the locations of the initial and working water/oil edges are conditional; the structural plan is approximate. Data on the degree of waterflooding in the deposit and the magnitude of the actual oil yield coefficient are lacking inasmuch as the amount of oil already extracted at this time exceeds the calculated reserves. To increase the effectiveness of further development of the deposit and acquisition of the necessary data for calculating oil reserves, the deposit will be studied according to a special plan over a number of new drilling wells.

  7. The Current and Future Role of Nigerian Indigenous Oil Companies in the Mature Niger Delta

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    David Rowlands, Spectrum Energy and Information Technology Ltd

    2002-01-01

    Over the last 10 years, there has been a steady increase in the number of successful Indigenous Oil Companies exploring for hydrocarbons in the Niger Delta. A number of these companies have already entered into partnership agreements with overseas based oil companies, however, many more are still seeking technical and financial partnership agreements with overseas based oil companies, however, many more are still seeking technical and financial partners to fulfil their licence commitments. The first exploration licence to an Indigenous Company was awarded in the mid eighties. However, it wasn't until the early nineties that the Nigerian Government's intention to privatise the oil industry gathered momentum. Between 1991 and 1993 a number of discretionary awards of acreage from various sedimentary basins in Nigeria were made to Nigerian Indigenous Companies. Many of these companies had little or no previous experience of hydrocarbon exploration.Sixteen of the Indigenous Companies have already reported discoveries in various parts of the delta, either in partnerships with foreign companies or independently. Eight of the Indigenous Companies are producing hydrocarbons. With very little production in the early 90's, the Indigenous Companies now account for over 4.5% of Nigeria's daily production. The government is intent on increasing this percentage through initiatives such as the Marginal Fields re-allocation programme, and the continued award of acreage in traditional license rounds. This paper takes a closer look at the operations and discoveries of two Indigenous Companies Solgas and Summit with the aim of providing an insight into the structure and mode of operation of typical Nigerian Indigenous Oil Companies.The more recent licensing activity in Nigeria includes the current Marginal Fields re-allocation programme and also possible participation of Nigerian companies in the join Development Zone between Nigeria and Sao Tome and Principe. The paper concludes with

  8. Is Numerairology the Future of Monetary Economics? Unbundling numeraire and medium of exchange through a virtual currency and a shadow exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Willem H. Buiter

    2007-01-01

    The paper discusses some fundamental problems in monetary economics associated with the determination and role of the numeraire. The issues are introduced by formalising a proposal, attributed to Eisler, to remove the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates by unbundling the numeraire and medium of exchange/means of payment functions of money. The monetary authorities manage the exchange rate between the numeraire ('sterling') and the means of payment ('drachma'). The short nominal interes...

  9. Future oil production in Brazil-Estimates based on a Hubbert model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szklo, Alexandre; Machado, Giovani; Schaeffer, Roberto

    2007-01-01

    This paper forecasts oil production in Brazil, according to the Hubbert model and different probabilities for adding reserves. It analyzes why the Hubbert model might be more appropriate to the Brazilian oil industry than that of Hotelling, as it implicitly emphasizes the impacts of information and depletion on the derivative over time of the accumulated discoveries. Brazil's oil production curves indicate production peaks with a time lag of more than 15 years, depending on the certainty (degree of information) associated with the reserves. Reserves with 75% certainty peak at 3.27 Mbpd in 2020, while reserves with 50% certainty peak at 3.28 Mbpd in 2028, and with 30% certainty peak at 3.88 Mbpd in 2036. These findings show that Brazil oil industry is in a stage where the positive impacts of information on expanding reserves (mainly through discoveries) may outstrip the negative impacts of depletion. The still limited number of wells drilled by accumulated discoveries also explain this assertion. Being a characteristic of frontier areas such as Brazil, this indicates the need for ongoing exploratory efforts

  10. Future role of oil and natural gas in OPEC and non-OPEC regions up to and beyond the year 2000

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ismail, I.A.H.

    1992-01-01

    Oil and Natural Gas are very much interrelated. They are both discovered in sedimentary basins and exist in nature in equilibrium under reservoir conditions deep inside the earth. In many cases, they are found associated with each other in the same reservoir rocks, and hence the name 'petroleum' is used to indicate both oil and natural gas. Their ultimate resources in nature are always comparable. It is, therefore, not surprising to find a close link between the price of natural gas and that of crude oil. It must be stated, however, that this parallel between oil and natural gas has its limits, since natural gas, unlike crude oil, is far from being an international commodity that could benefit from international trade on a global scale. In order to project the future role of oil and natural gas, it is essential to consider their past and present performances in the primary energy mix. (author)

  11. Is numérairology the future of monetary economics?: unbundling numéraire and medium of exchange through a virtual currency and a shadow exchange rate

    OpenAIRE

    Willem H. Buiter

    2007-01-01

    The paper discusses some fundamental problems in monetary economics associated with the determination and role of the numéraire. The issues are introduced by formalising a proposal, attributed to Eisler, to remove the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates by unbundling the numéraire and medium of exchange/means of payment functions of money. The monetary authorities manage the exchange rate between the numéraire ('sterling') and the means of payment ('drachma'). The short nominal interes...

  12. Material Exchange in Photoreceptor Transplantation: Updating Our Understanding of Donor/Host Communication and the Future of Cell Engraftment Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nickerson, Philip E B; Ortin-Martinez, Arturo; Wallace, Valerie A

    2018-01-01

    Considerable research effort has been invested into the transplantation of mammalian photoreceptors into healthy and degenerating mouse eyes. Several platforms of rod and cone fluorescent reporting have been central to refining the isolation, purification and transplantation of photoreceptors. The tracking of engrafted cells, including identifying the position, morphology and degree of donor cell integration post-transplant is highly dependent on the use of fluorescent protein reporters. Improvements in imaging and analysis of transplant recipients have revealed that donor cell fluorescent reporters can transfer into host tissue though a process termed material exchange (ME). This recent discovery has chaperoned a new era of interpretation when reviewing the field's use of dissociated donor cell preparations, and has prompted scientists to re-examine how we use and interpret the information derived from fluorescence-based tracking tools. In this review, we describe the status of our understanding of ME in photoreceptor transplantation. In addition, we discuss the impact of this discovery on several aspects of historical rod and cone transplantation data, and provide insight into future standards and approaches to advance the field of cell engraftment.

  13. Material Exchange in Photoreceptor Transplantation: Updating Our Understanding of Donor/Host Communication and the Future of Cell Engraftment Science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip E. B. Nickerson

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Considerable research effort has been invested into the transplantation of mammalian photoreceptors into healthy and degenerating mouse eyes. Several platforms of rod and cone fluorescent reporting have been central to refining the isolation, purification and transplantation of photoreceptors. The tracking of engrafted cells, including identifying the position, morphology and degree of donor cell integration post-transplant is highly dependent on the use of fluorescent protein reporters. Improvements in imaging and analysis of transplant recipients have revealed that donor cell fluorescent reporters can transfer into host tissue though a process termed material exchange (ME. This recent discovery has chaperoned a new era of interpretation when reviewing the field’s use of dissociated donor cell preparations, and has prompted scientists to re-examine how we use and interpret the information derived from fluorescence-based tracking tools. In this review, we describe the status of our understanding of ME in photoreceptor transplantation. In addition, we discuss the impact of this discovery on several aspects of historical rod and cone transplantation data, and provide insight into future standards and approaches to advance the field of cell engraftment.

  14. Kinetics of soybean oil epoxidation with peracetic acid formed in situ in the presence of an ion exchange resin: Pseudo-homogeneous model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Milovan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A kinetic model was proposed for the epoxidation of vegetable oils with peracetic acid formed in situ from acetic acid and hydrogen peroxide in the presence of an acidic ion exchange resin as a catalyst. The model is pseudo-homogeneous with respect to the catalyst. Besides the main reactions of peracetic acid and epoxy ring formation, the model takes into account the side reaction of epoxy ring opening with acetic acid. The partitioning of acetic acid and peracetic acid between the aqueous and organic phases and the change in the phases’ volumes during the process were considered. The temperature dependency of the apparent reaction rate coefficients is described by a reparameterized Arrhenius equation. The constants in the proposed model were estimated by fitting the experimental data obtained for the epoxidations of soybean oil conducted under defined reaction conditions. The highest epoxy yield of 87.73% was obtained at 338 K when the mole ratio of oil unsaturation:acetic acid:hydrogen peroxide was 1:0.5:1.35 and when the amount of the catalyst Amberlite IR-120H was 4.04 wt.% of oil. Compared to the other reported pseudo-homogeneous models, the model proposed in this study better correlates the change of double bond and epoxy group contents during the epoxidation process. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III45022

  15. [Fish oil containing lipid emulsions in critically ill patients: Critical analysis and future perspectives].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzanares, W; Langlois, P L

    2016-01-01

    Third-generation lipid emulsions (LE) are soybean oil sparing strategies with immunomodulatory and antiinflammatory effects. Current evidence supporting the use of intravenous (i.v) fish oil (FO) LE in critically ill patients requiring parenteral nutrition or receiving enteral nutrition (pharmaconutrient strategy) mainly derives from small phase ii clinical trials in heterogenous intensive care unit patient's population. Over the last three years, there have been published different systematic reviews and meta-analyses evaluating the effects of FO containing LE in the critically ill. Recently, it has been demonstrated that i.v FO based LE may be able to significantly reduce the incidence of infections as well as mechanical ventilation days and hospital length of stay. Nonetheless, more robust evidence is required before giving a definitive recommendation. Finally, we strongly believe that a dosing study is required before new phase iii clinical trials comparing i.v FO containing emulsions versus other soybean oil strategies can be conducted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier España, S.L.U. and SEMICYUC. All rights reserved.

  16. A foundation for the future: building an environmental monitoring system for the oil sands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowdeswell, L.; Dillon, P.; Ghoshal, S.; Miall, A.; Rasmussen, J.; Smol, J.P.

    2010-12-01

    In September, 2010, important concerns regarding the impacts of oil sand industry on the environment in the Lower Athabasca River Basin resulted in the creation of the oil sands advisory panel. This panel was set up to examine and evaluate the existing system for research and monitoring and identify strengths and weaknesses regarding water monitoring in the Lower Athabasca River Basin and connected waterways. In this report, the panel provides important elements to guide the monitoring of water quality and quantity. The panel has identified several organizations or individuals contributing to the research and monitoring of the Athabasca River system but also points out in the document that the research has not yet led to a consensus regarding the impacts of oil sands development on the environment. It has also been observed that no standardized data management system has been put in place to facilitate the access to data for interested parties. Important weaknesses in the existing monitoring system were identified by the panel. The advisory panel recommended the implementation of a credible and transparent, comprehensive and adaptive monitoring program, through a collaborative work between relevant jurisdictions and stakeholders. 50 refs.

  17. Oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cobbett, G T.B.

    1907-07-08

    Crude petroleum having a density of 850 to 900 is purified with sulfuric acid, decanted, mixed with benzine or petrol, and again treated with sulfuric acid and decanted. The remaining acid and coloring-matter are removed by washing with water, or treating with oxalic acid, zinc carbonate, lead carbonate, calcium carbonate, or oxide of zinc. The product is used as a fuel for internal-combustion engines. Specifications No. 28,104, A.D. 1906, and No. 12,606, A.D. 1907, are referred to. According to the Provisional Specification, the process is applicable to shale or schist oil.

  18. An Improved Approach for Forecasting Ecological Impacts from Future Drilling in Unconventional Shale Oil and Gas Plays.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolaver, Brad D; Pierre, Jon Paul; Ikonnikova, Svetlana A; Andrews, John R; McDaid, Guinevere; Ryberg, Wade A; Hibbitts, Toby J; Duran, Charles M; Labay, Benjamin J; LaDuc, Travis J

    2018-04-13

    Directional well drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled energy production from previously inaccessible resources, but caused vegetation conversion and landscape fragmentation, often in relatively undisturbed habitats. We improve forecasts of future ecological impacts from unconventional oil and gas play developments using a new, more spatially-explicit approach. We applied an energy production outlook model, which used geologic and economic data from thousands of wells and three oil price scenarios, to map future drilling patterns and evaluate the spatial distribution of vegetation conversion and habitat impacts. We forecast where future well pad construction may be most intense, illustrating with an example from the Eagle Ford Shale Play of Texas. We also illustrate the ecological utility of this approach using the Spot-tailed Earless Lizard (Holbrookia lacerata) as the focal species, which historically occupied much of the Eagle Ford and awaits a federal decision for possible Endangered Species Act protection. We found that ~17,000-45,500 wells would be drilled 2017‒2045 resulting in vegetation conversion of ~26,485-70,623 ha (0.73-1.96% of pre-development vegetation), depending on price scenario ($40-$80/barrel). Grasslands and row crop habitats were most affected (2.30 and 2.82% areal vegetation reduction). Our approach improves forecasts of where and to what extent future energy development in unconventional plays may change land-use and ecosystem services, enabling natural resource managers to anticipate and direct on-the-ground conservation actions to places where they will most effectively mitigate ecological impacts of well pads and associated infrastructure.

  19. Numerical investigation on various heat exchanger performances to determine an optimum configuration for charge air cooler, oil and water radiators in F1 sidepods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmon, Pierre; Könözsy, László; Temple, Clive; Grove, Stuart

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Three-dimensional CFD transitional flow simulations in formula one car sidepods. • Determination of an optimum heat exchanger configuration placed in the sidepods. • Prediction of heat transfer and pressure drop to mass flow rate correlation curves. • Performance of heat exchanger configurations for non-isothermal transitional flows. • Overcome the difficulties of macroscopic heat exchanger and porous media methods. - Abstract: The present work focuses on a three-dimensional CFD approach to predict the performance of various heat exchangers in conjunction with non-isothermal transitional flows for motorsport applications. The objective of this study is to determine the heat transfer, pressure drop and inhomogeneous flow behaviour for distinct heat exchangers to identify an optimum configuration for the charge air cooler, water and oil radiators placed in the sidepods of a formula one (F1) car. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis of various heat exchanger configurations has been carried out in this work. In order to assess the reliability of the obtained results, a mesh sensitivity study along with additional parametric investigations have been performed to provide numerical parameters predicting accurately (a) the heat transfer rate at the fluid-solid interface and (b) the sporadic separation. As a result of the performed validation procedure in this study, the aerodynamic- and thermal boundary layer development along with the convective characteristics of the air flow have been captured accurately near to the heated surface. The characterization of a heat exchanger core and a core configuration in a closed domain is also possible with this procedure. The presented three-dimensional CFD approach could overcome the difficulties of macroscopic heat exchanger and porous media methods for F1 applications, because it can be used to predict the heat transfer and pressure drop related to the mass flow rate correlation curves. The contribution of

  20. Building a sustainable future - The effects of CSR-finance on national oil companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thakur, Vishal

    2010-09-15

    Since the release of Goldman Sach's 'Path to 2050' report, arguing the combined economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, would ellipse the economies of the current richest countries by 2050, the BRIC countries have garnered global attention. As demand for oil in these nations increases, NOCs within the BRIC have gone beyond national borders for exploration and financing - giving rise to concerns over emerging policies, objectives and priorities. The purpose of this paper is to examine NOCs of the BRIC and their compliance with international standards of corporate social responsibility and their effects through international capital markets.

  1. Building a sustainable future - The effects of CSR-finance on national oil companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thakur, Vishal

    2010-09-15

    Since the release of Goldman Sach's 'Path to 2050' report, arguing the combined economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, would ellipse the economies of the current richest countries by 2050, the BRIC countries have garnered global attention. As demand for oil in these nations increases, NOCs within the BRIC have gone beyond national borders for exploration and financing - giving rise to concerns over emerging policies, objectives and priorities. The purpose of this paper is to examine NOCs of the BRIC and their compliance with international standards of corporate social responsibility and their effects through international capital markets.

  2. The future of the Canadian oil sands: Engineering and project management advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madden, Peter; Morawski, Jacek

    2010-09-15

    Production technology and project management developments in Canada's oil sands industry, in the context of AMEC's experience as EPCM service provider, are discussed. Effective project management systems and workfront planning are critical to achieve cost and schedule targets and optimum construction execution. Construction Work Packages divide work into discrete pieces and Construction Work Execution Plans influence scheduling of engineering and procurement deliverables. AMEC's Engineering Data Warehouse works with intelligent engineering design tools to ensure information related to a piece of equipment is consistent across all systems. HSSE systems are proactively developed and AMEC's progressive improvement in safety performance is demonstrated.

  3. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  4. Canadian upstream oil and gas industry profitability: Historical review and future perspectives [with executive summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The profitability of the Canadian upstream oil and gas industry is examined by analyzing return on equity and return on capital invested. By all measures and interpretations, the upstream industry has been unprofitable since the mid-1980s; returns generated are far below the industry's own historical cost of capital, and are inadequate relative to other sectors of the Canadian economy and to international oil and gas companies. This poor profitability is attributed to such factors as: overly optimistic price forecasts and healthy cash flows generated in the early 1980s, which led to excess capital spending; poor returns on capital reflective of the physical limitations of the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin; high capital and operating costs; and a high royalty burden imposed by provincial governments. The consequences of low profitability include inadequate returns to equity investors, a drop in spending on upstream services such as drilling and exploration, a reduced ability of the industry to generate employment, and an adverse effect on the economy of Alberta. Forecasts indicate that the upstream sector is extremely vulnerable to a scenario of relatively flat prices due to high and increasing operating costs and depletion charges, and the significant royalty payments that still are in effect. Little scope is foreseen for industry profitability to return to acceptable levels over the first half of the 1990s. Reduced royalties have the potential to make a significant contribution to improved profitability. 52 figs., 40 tabs

  5. OPEC at middle age: facing an uncertain future in the world oil market economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-01-01

    International institutions, like individuals, groups, and even societies and cultures, pass through various stages in their development as they grow from youth through middle age into more experienced and mature members of the international community. OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, is no exception to this generally observable phenomenon on the world economic scene. It has clearly undergone a gradual process of growth over the past three decades or so since its establishment by five founding states in Baghdad in September 1960. OPEC's history since then could be characterized as being divided into three distinct developmental stages. The first decade, the 1960s, was a period of consolidation of OPEC's power over the oil companies and their control over the member countries'oil resources. The second decade - the 1970s - was a decade characterized by almost continuous and prolonged producer - consumer confrontation as well as revelation of some of the more basic cleavages within OPEC as an organization. This was followed by the decade of the 1980s -- a period of relative accommodation between producers and consumers in the interest of longer term market stability

  6. Exploration and production. Know-how. Extra-heavy oils and bitumen. Reserves for the future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    How can ever-expanding needs be met without jeopardizing reserve life? The answers can be summed up in a single word: the innovation. In this framework the Group Total developed their research and development activities, which are endowed with a annual budget of more than 100 million dollars. Tools from seismic imaging to thermodynamic modeling of fluids and flows in any type of reservoir can be used in combination in order to steadily reduce uncertainties and control risks. These tools will help make technologically and economically feasible to produce new resources such extra-heavy crudes, very acid gases, deeply-buried reservoirs or oil and gas reserves situated in ultra deep waters. (A.L.B.)

  7. Forecasting the volatility of crude oil futures using intra-day data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    We use the information in intra-day data to forecast the volatility of crude oil at a horizon of 1 to 66 days using a variety of models relying on the decomposition of realized variance in its positive or negative (semi-variances) part and its continuous or discontinuous part (jumps). We show the importance of these decompositions in predictive regressions using a number of specifications. Nevertheless, an important empirical finding comes from an out-of-sample analysis which unambiguously shows the limited interest of considering these components. Overall, our results indicates that a simple autoregressive specification mimicking long memory and using past realized variances as predictors does not perform significantly worse than more sophisticated models which include the various components of realized variance. (author)

  8. The future of oil - Running out of gas and lack of meaning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parks, Olivier

    2012-01-01

    For several years now we are witnessing the conjunction of various crises: energy crisis, financial crisis, economical crisis, social crisis, identity crisis, moral value crisis, well-being crisis, political crisis... But what are the origins of these different crises? In this book, the author puts the essential question of the future of this period of uncertainties and its possible impact on the creation of a new society organization. If today's societies do not change their behaviour, the physical limits of Earth's resources will apply to them either willingly or by force anyway. The author presents a militant vision of tomorrows society with some possible energy scenarios for a future without petroleum

  9. Modeling Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index Using Time Series Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayo, W. S.; Urrutia, J. D.; Temple, J. M. F.; Sandoval, J. R. D.; Sanglay, J. E. A.

    2015-06-01

    This study was conducted to develop a time series model of the Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index and its volatility using the finite mixture of ARIMA model with conditional variance equations such as ARCH, GARCH, EG ARCH, TARCH and PARCH models. Also, the study aimed to find out the reason behind the behaviorof PSEi, that is, which of the economic variables - Consumer Price Index, crude oil price, foreign exchange rate, gold price, interest rate, money supply, price-earnings ratio, Producers’ Price Index and terms of trade - can be used in projecting future values of PSEi and this was examined using Granger Causality Test. The findings showed that the best time series model for Philippine Stock Exchange Composite index is ARIMA(1,1,5) - ARCH(1). Also, Consumer Price Index, crude oil price and foreign exchange rate are factors concluded to Granger cause Philippine Stock Exchange Composite Index.

  10. Oil Palm Frond Juice as Future Fermentation Substrate: A Feasibility Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Che Maail, Che Mohd Hakiman; Ariffin, Hidayah; Hassan, Mohd Ali; Shah, Umi Kalsom Md; Shirai, Yoshihito

    2014-01-01

    Oil palm frond (OPF) juice is a potential industrial fermentation substrate as it has high sugars content and the OPF are readily available daily. However, maximum sugars yield and storage stability of the OPF juice are yet to be determined. This study was conducted to determine the effect of physical pretreatment and storage duration of OPF petiole on sugars yield. Storage stability of OPF juice at different storing conditions was also investigated. It was found that OPF petiole squeezed by hydraulic pressing machine gave the highest sugars recovery at almost 40 g/kg, accounting for a recovery yield of 88%. Storage of OPF petiole up to 72 hrs prior to squeezing reduced the free sugars by 11 g/kg. Concentrated OPF juice with 95% water removal had the best storage stability at both 4 and 30°C, when it was stored for 10 days. Moreover, concentrated OPF syrup prepared by thermal processing did not give any Maillard effect on microbial growth. Based on our results, OPF juice meets all the criteria as a good fermentation substrate as it is renewable, consistently available, and easy to be obtained, it does not inhibit microbial growth and product formation, and it contains no impurities. PMID:25057489

  11. Oil Palm Frond Juice as Future Fermentation Substrate: A Feasibility Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Che Mohd Hakiman Che Maail

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Oil palm frond (OPF juice is a potential industrial fermentation substrate as it has high sugars content and the OPF are readily available daily. However, maximum sugars yield and storage stability of the OPF juice are yet to be determined. This study was conducted to determine the effect of physical pretreatment and storage duration of OPF petiole on sugars yield. Storage stability of OPF juice at different storing conditions was also investigated. It was found that OPF petiole squeezed by hydraulic pressing machine gave the highest sugars recovery at almost 40 g/kg, accounting for a recovery yield of 88%. Storage of OPF petiole up to 72 hrs prior to squeezing reduced the free sugars by 11 g/kg. Concentrated OPF juice with 95% water removal had the best storage stability at both 4 and 30°C, when it was stored for 10 days. Moreover, concentrated OPF syrup prepared by thermal processing did not give any Maillard effect on microbial growth. Based on our results, OPF juice meets all the criteria as a good fermentation substrate as it is renewable, consistently available, and easy to be obtained, it does not inhibit microbial growth and product formation, and it contains no impurities.

  12. How small business health exchanges can offer value to their future customers--and why they must.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kingsdale, Jon

    2012-02-01

    The success of the Small Business Health Options Program (SHOP)-health insurance exchanges targeted at the small-group market and opening for business in January 2014-will depend in large part on persuading small employers and qualified health plans to participate. The most important objective will be offering employers lower-cost health plans than they have now. Other critical objectives will be offering small firms administrative efficiencies and access to choices among high-value plans that are not offered elsewhere. This article frames the challenges that exchanges will encounter in meeting these objectives. In particular, it discusses the advisability of small-business exchanges' offering an "employee choice" model (which the article describes in detail); of combining the small-business and individual exchanges to broaden product offerings and gain operational efficiencies; and of encouraging low-cost plans to enter the exchange market, perhaps by enabling Medicaid managed care plans to offer comparable commercial products, and in turn affording health plans access to a uniquely motivated market of small firms and their workers who want affordable coverage.

  13. The refining industry and the future of the fuel oils; L'industrie du raffinage et le devenir des fiouls lourds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soleille, S

    2004-01-15

    The fuel oils consumption decrease in France since 1970, because of the two petroleum crisis, the nuclear energy competition and the air pollution. The fuel oils industry is then looking other export possibilities. This report aims to offer a first approach of the problem and presents the main challenges. The first part is devoted to the technical context (definition, production and outlet. The second part presents the environmental context and the fuel oils market. In the third part the market is studied at the world scale, in the fourth at the french scale and in the fifth at the scale of other countries as United States, Japan and european Union. A synthesis tables is given in the last part to compare and propose some hypothesis concerning the future of fuel oils and the french refining industry. (A.L.B.)

  14. Forecasting the density of oil futures returns using model-free implied volatility and high-frequency data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ielpo, Florian; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-09-01

    Forecasting the density of returns is useful for many purposes in finance, such as risk management activities, portfolio choice or derivative security pricing. Existing methods to forecast the density of returns either use prices of the asset of interest or option prices on this same asset. The latter method needs to convert the risk-neutral estimate of the density into a physical measure, which is computationally cumbersome. In this paper, we take the view of a practitioner who observes the implied volatility under the form of an index, namely the recent OVX, to forecast the density of oil futures returns for horizons going from 1 to 60 days. Using the recent methodology in Maheu and McCurdy (2011) to compute density predictions, we compare the performance of time series models using implied volatility and either daily or intra-daily futures prices. Our results indicate that models based on implied volatility deliver significantly better density forecasts at all horizons, which is in line with numerous studies delivering the same evidence for volatility point forecast. (authors)

  15. [STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF WHEAT GERM CAKE OIL AND FLOUR ON INDICES OF ENERGY EXCHANGE IN STUDENTS AND TEACHERS OF HIGH SCHOOL].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esaulenko, I E; Rodionova, N S; Popov, E S; Melikhova, E P; Khatuaev, R O

    2015-01-01

    There were obtained data which confirm the increase of efficiency of gas exchange processes in students and teachers of the engineering high school in the daily use of at least 3.5 g of wheat germ oil and 50 g of wheat germ cake flour without the correction of the basic ration. The study of the exhaled gas-air mixture showed in all age groups the gain in the concentration of carbon dioxide and the decline of concentration of oxygen by the 0.20-0.30%. There was established the increase of blood oxygenation level in all subjects. There was demonstrated the relationship between the depth of the alteration of these parameters with age, and regular physical activity in studied cases.

  16. Hello oil rig: The role of simulacra images in producing future reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Abdallah

    This project is the first approach to address the problem of the image through a discussion between science, philosophy, art history, art theory, and fine arts based on one body of specific art work designed especially to explain the role of the image in producing future reality models. This study is a continuation of the dialogue between important philosophers and thinkers about the image and its place in the contemporary scene. The technical fossil medium used in painting this project crosses the boundary between scientific research with its data sheets to art theory and fine arts with their aesthetic rhetoric thus bringing many disciplines together. Seven images were created to discuss the problem. The artwork and the academic research are both interacting in this paper in a multidiscipline discussion to uncover the role of the images in creating a new reality and in forging the hyperreal culture.

  17. Iraq's future

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henderson, S.

    1998-01-01

    The large oil reserves of Iraq make it an important player in the long-term political energy world. This article briefly reviews the oil industry''s development and current status in Iraq and discusses the planned oil and gas field development. Finally there is a political discussion regarding the future of Iraq in terms of religion, race and neighbouring countries. (UK)

  18. Electro-catalytic biodiesel production from canola oil in methanolic and ethanolic solutions with low cost stainless steel and hybrid ion-exchange resin grafted electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allioux, Francois-Marie; Holland, Brendan J.; Kong, Lingxue; Dumée, Ludovic F.

    2017-07-01

    Biodiesel is a growing alternative to petroleum fuels and is produced by the catalysed transesterification of fats in presence of an alcohol base. Transesterification processes using homogeneous catalysts are considered to be amongst the most efficient methods but rely on the feedstock quality and low water content in order to avoid undesirable saponification reactions. In this work, the electro-catalytic conversion of canola oil to biodiesel in a 1% aqueous methanolic and ethanolic reaction mixture was performed without the addition of external catalyst or co-solvent. An inexpensive stainless steel electrode and a hybrid stainless steel electrode coated with an ion-exchange resin catalyst were used as cathode materials while the anode was composed of a plain carbon paper. The cell voltages were varied from 10 to 40 V and the reaction temperature maintained at 20 or 40°C. The canola oil conversion rates were found to be superior at 40°C without saponification reactions for cell voltages below 30 V. The conversion rates were as high as 87% for the hybrid electrode and 81% for the plain stainless steel electrode. This work could inspire new process development for the conversion of high water content feedstock for the production of second-generation biodiesel.

  19. Electro-Catalytic Biodiesel Production from Canola Oil in Methanolic and Ethanolic Solutions with Low-Cost Stainless Steel and Hybrid Ion-Exchange Resin Grafted Electrodes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francois-Marie Allioux

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Biodiesel is a growing alternative to petroleum fuels and is produced by the catalyzed transesterification of fats in presence of an alcohol base. Transesterification processes using homogeneous catalysts are considered to be among the most efficient methods but rely on the feedstock quality and low water content in order to avoid undesirable saponification reactions. In this work, the electro-catalytic conversion of canola oil to biodiesel in a 1% aqueous methanolic and ethanolic reaction mixture was performed without the addition of external catalyst or cosolvent. An inexpensive stainless steel (SS electrode and a hybrid SS electrode coated with an ion-exchange resin catalyst were used as cathode materials while the anode was composed of a plain carbon paper. The cell voltages were varied from 10 to 40 V and the reaction temperature maintained at 20 or 40°C. The canola oil conversion rates were found to be superior at 40°C without saponification reactions for cell voltages below 30 V. The conversion rates were as high as 87% for the hybrid electrode and 81% for the plain SS electrode. This work could inspire new process development for the conversion of high water content feedstock for the production of second-generation biodiesel.

  20. Futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  1. Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallego, Alejandro; O'Hara Murray, Rory; Berx, Barbara; Turrell, William R; Beegle-Krause, C J; Inall, Mark; Sherwin, Toby; Siddorn, John; Wakelin, Sarah; Vlasenko, Vasyl; Hole, Lars R; Dagestad, Knut Frode; Rees, John; Short, Lucy; Rønningen, Petter; Main, Charlotte E; Legrand, Sebastien; Gutierrez, Tony; Witte, Ursula; Mulanaphy, Nicole

    2018-02-01

    As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The scenario approach to possible futures for oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bentham, Jeremy

    2014-01-01

    Shell has been using scenario planning for 40 years to help deepen its strategic thinking. Developing and applying scenarios is part of an ongoing process in Shell that encourages decision-makers to explore the features, uncertainties, and boundaries of the future landscape, and engage with alternative points of view. Shell scenarios go beyond conventional energy outlooks and consider long-term trends in economics, energy supply and demand, geopolitical shifts and social change. They are based on plausible assumptions and quantification, and include the impact of different patterns of individual and collective choices. Shell′s latest scenario publication, the New Lens Scenarios, published in 2013, provides an in-depth analysis of how economic, social and political forces might play out over the 21st century, as well as their consequences for the global energy system and environment. Its ‘Mountains’ and ‘Oceans’ scenarios set out two distinct paths the world might take in the decades ahead. They reinforce the urgency and complexity of addressing the world's resource and environmental stresses, and highlight the need for business, government and society to find new ways to collaborate, fostering policies that promote the development and use of cleaner energy, and improve energy efficiency. - Highlights: • Shell has used scenarios to deepen its strategic thinking for 40 years. • Shell scenarios cover a broader set of drivers than traditional energy outlooks. • Shell's New Lens Scenarios were published in February 2013. • They look at trends in the economy, politics and energy over the 21st century. • Coordinated policies are essential to meeting the world's rising energy needs

  3. Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbon (PAH) and Oxygenated PAH (OPAH) Air–Water Exchange during the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    Passive sampling devices were used to measure air vapor and water dissolved phase concentrations of 33 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 22 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) at four Gulf of Mexico coastal sites prior to, during, and after shoreline oiling from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH). Measurements were taken at each site over a 13 month period, and flux across the water–air boundary was determined. This is the first report of vapor phase and flux of both PAHs and OPAHs during the DWH. Vapor phase sum PAH and OPAH concentrations ranged between 1 and 24 ng/m3 and 0.3 and 27 ng/m3, respectively. PAH and OPAH concentrations in air exhibited different spatial and temporal trends than in water, and air–water flux of 13 individual PAHs were strongly associated with the DWH incident. The largest PAH volatilizations occurred at the sites in Alabama and Mississippi in the summer, each nominally 10 000 ng/m2/day. Acenaphthene was the PAH with the highest observed volatilization rate of 6800 ng/m2/day in September 2010. This work represents additional evidence of the DWH incident contributing to air contamination, and provides one of the first quantitative air–water chemical flux determinations with passive sampling technology. PMID:25412353

  4. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) and oxygenated PAH (OPAH) air-water exchange during the deepwater horizon oil spill.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tidwell, Lane G; Allan, Sarah E; O'Connell, Steven G; Hobbie, Kevin A; Smith, Brian W; Anderson, Kim A

    2015-01-06

    Passive sampling devices were used to measure air vapor and water dissolved phase concentrations of 33 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and 22 oxygenated PAHs (OPAHs) at four Gulf of Mexico coastal sites prior to, during, and after shoreline oiling from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (DWH). Measurements were taken at each site over a 13 month period, and flux across the water-air boundary was determined. This is the first report of vapor phase and flux of both PAHs and OPAHs during the DWH. Vapor phase sum PAH and OPAH concentrations ranged between 1 and 24 ng/m(3) and 0.3 and 27 ng/m(3), respectively. PAH and OPAH concentrations in air exhibited different spatial and temporal trends than in water, and air-water flux of 13 individual PAHs were strongly associated with the DWH incident. The largest PAH volatilizations occurred at the sites in Alabama and Mississippi in the summer, each nominally 10,000 ng/m(2)/day. Acenaphthene was the PAH with the highest observed volatilization rate of 6800 ng/m(2)/day in September 2010. This work represents additional evidence of the DWH incident contributing to air contamination, and provides one of the first quantitative air-water chemical flux determinations with passive sampling technology.

  5. The future of water quality and the regulatory environment for the oil sands and coalbed methane development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasperski, K.; Mikula, R.

    2004-01-01

    The use of consolidated tailings in recent years for the surface mined oil sands bitumen extraction process has resulted in major improvements in water consumption because materials are transported more efficiently in a slurry form. Water storage requirements will be reduced as the cost of handling tailings in the conventional manner becomes clearer. Future improvements may be in the form of mine face sand rejection, more advanced tailings treatment, or the use of clays for continuous reclamation. Sand filtering or stacking technologies can improve tailings properties and reduce the amount of water needed per unit of bitumen. It was noted that although the technologies will minimize land disturbance and fresh water consumption, water chemistries will be driven to the point where extraction recovery is impaired and water treatment will be required. The volumes and quality of water that is pumped out to produce coalbed methane (CBM) was also discussed with reference to the origin of water in coal beds, water resource depletion, water disposal, direct land applications, and surface evaporation. The Alberta Energy and Utilities Board and Alberta Environment are responsible for regulating CBM water issues in the province, including water disposal from CBM production. 41 refs., 6 tabs., 8 figs

  6. European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) Futures Liquidity Effects: Evidence from the European Energy Exchange (EEX)

    OpenAIRE

    Ibikunle, Gbenga; Gregoriou, Andros

    2011-01-01

    We examine liquidity effects after the onset of trading in phase II of the EU-ETS for European Union Allowance (EUA) futures contracts. We obtain evidence of long-term improvement in liquidity of the EEX EUA December 2008 futures contract after the commencement of trading in phase II. Our results suggest the application of a new regime of trading rules in Phase II led to the improvements in liquidity.

  7. Energy substitution in oil-exporting LDC's the Indonesian experience

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rose, A.; Soelistijo, U. (Pennsylvania State University, University Park (USA). Dept. of Mineral Economics)

    1989-02-01

    Many oil-exporting LDCs defy the stereotype of an OPEC country with an excess of oil reserves for current and future needs. In this paper it is suggested that serious consideration be given to the substitution of other fossil energy resources for oil used domestically in order to release more oil for export. This will generate more foreign exchange and extend the life of the reserve base. A coal-oil substitution programme for Indonesia is presented and analysed to illustrate the economic development benefits of this strategy. 11 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs.

  8. Future Oil Spills and Possibilities for Intervention: A Model for the Coupled Human-Environmental Resource Extraction System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shughrue, C. M.; Werner, B.; Nugnug, P. T.

    2010-12-01

    The catastrophic Deepwater Horizon oil spill highlights the risks for widespread environmental damage resulting from petroleum resource extraction. Possibilities for amelioration of these risks depend critically on understanding the dynamics and nonlinear interactions between various components of the coupled human-environmental resource extraction system. We use a complexity analysis to identify the levels of description and time scales at which these interactions are strongest, and then use the analysis as the basis for an agent-based numerical model with which decadal trends can be analyzed. Oil industry economic and technological activity and associated oil spills are components of a complex system that is coupled to natural environment, legislation, regulation, media, and resistance systems over annual to decadal time scales. In the model, oil spills are produced stochastically with a range of magnitudes depending on a reliability-engineering-based assessment of failure for the technology employed, human factors including compliance with operating procedures, and risks associated with the drilling environment. Oil industry agents determine drilling location and technological investment using a cost-benefit analysis relating projected revenue from added production to technology cost and government regulation. Media outlet agents reporting on the oil industry and environmental damage from oil spills assess the impacts of aggressively covering a story on circulation increases, advertiser concerns and potential loss of information sources. Environmental advocacy group agents increase public awareness of environmental damage (through media and public contact), solicit memberships and donations, and apply direct pressure on legislators for policy change. Heterogeneous general public agents adjust their desire for change in the level of regulation, contact their representatives or participate in resistance via protest by considering media sources, personal

  9. Crude oil options market found to be efficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports that the U.S. crude oil options market operates efficiently and does not overreact. The authors, with the JFK School of Government, studied the crude oil options market under a Department of Energy grant. The current market was created in November 1986 when the New York Mercantile Exchange introduced an options contract for delivery of West Texas intermediate crude futures. it has grown greatly since then

  10. Bottom-up design of a gas futures market in East Asia: Lessons from the Dojima rice exchange

    OpenAIRE

    Shi, Xunpeng; Li, Yanfei; Reshetova, Elena

    2017-01-01

    The natural gas market in East Asia remains fragmented without a functioning benchmark price to duly reflect the dynamics of demand and supply forces in the region. A functional regional gas futures market, which is highly dependent on the presence of well-developed physical spot trading, is yet to be established. Since the intra-regional pipeline connection is largely non-existent in East Asia, it is the LNG spot cargo trading that is likely to become the basis for the regional gas futures m...

  11. What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berglund, T.; Kabir, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper analyzes systematic deviations of the observed futures price from the value predicted by the simple cost-of-carry relationship. A model to explain this deviation (the basis) is presented in Chen, Cuny, and Haugen (1995, henceforth CCH). According to CCH, the basis should be negatively

  12. The marketing-finance interface towards financial services with special reference to the new services provided by futures exchanges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Wetzels, M.G.M.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1999-01-01

    The financial services industry is one of the fastest growing service industries. The financial services industry includes financial derivatives markets such as options and futures markets. In order to ensure survival, firms providing financial services show a rapid product innovation. However, for

  13. The Marketing-Finance Interface Towards Financial Services: with Special Reference to New Services Provided by Futures Exchanges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Wetzels, M.G.M.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1999-01-01

    The financial services industry is one of the fastest growing service industries. The financial services industry includes financial derivatives markets such as options and futures markets. In order to ensure survival, firms providing financial services show a rapid product innovation. However, for

  14. The new oil : water, its use, reuse and conservation has become almost as important to Alberta's economic future as oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Collison, M.

    2009-03-15

    This article addressed concerns about water use in Alberta's oil sand industry and the need to effectively manage it. Companies such as Suncor, Syncrude Canada, Imperial Oil, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Petro-Canada, Nexen, Devon Energy and ConocoPhillips have improved water-use efficiency and reduced absolute water use significantly in recent years. A large percentage of the water produced from bitumen processing is recycled. In addition, saline groundwater not suitable for human or agricultural use has been pumped from deep aquifers to use in place of fresh water. The new Water and Environmental Science Research Facility at the University of Lethbridge, demonstrates just how prominent an issue water has become. Nexen Inc. is funding a Fellowship for Water Research at the new Lethbridge centre. A research team at the department of chemical and petroleum engineering at the Schulich School of Engineering is developing new ways to clean up produced water to such a purity that it can be used in oil and gas operations or used for irrigation. The standard of purity for oil production processes is higher than it is for irrigation because salts and silicon in water cause corrosion problems in metal equipment such as steam boilers. Ultrafiltration is being tested as an option to treat the produced water. To purify the produced water without the added cost of using pressure, the research team is enhancing the filtering process by adding a surfactant, a surface-active agent or detergent. 1 fig.

  15. Thermal Stability of Oil Palm Empty Fruit Bunch (OPEFB) Nanocrystalline Cellulose: Effects of post-treatment of oven drying and solvent exchange techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Indarti, E; Wanrosli, W D; Marwan

    2015-01-01

    Nanocrystallinecellulose (NCC) from biomass is a promising material with huge potentials in various applications. A big challenge in its utilization is the agglomeration of the NCC's during processing due to hydrogen bonding among the cellulose chains when in close proximity to each other. Obtaining NCC's in a non-agglomerated and non-aqueous condition is challenging. In the present work NCC's was isolated from oil palm empty fruit bunch (OPEFB) using TEMPO-oxidation reaction method. To obtain non-agglomerated and non-aqueous products, the NCC's underwent post-treatment using oven drying (OD) and solvent exchanged (SE) techniques. The thermal stability of all samples was determined from TGA and DTG profiles whilst FTIR was used to analyzethe chemical modifications that occurred under these conditions. NCC-SE has better thermal stability than the NCC-OD and its on-set degradation temperature and residue are also higher. FTIR analysis shows that NCC-SE has a slightly different chemical composition whereby the absorption band at 1300 cm -1 (due to C-O symmetric stretching) is absent as compared to NCC-OD indicating that in NCC-SE the carboxylate group is in acid form which contribute to its thermal stability (paper)

  16. Can the dynamics of the term structure of petroleum futures be forecasted? Evidence from major markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skiadopoulos, George; Chantziara, Thalia

    2008-01-01

    We investigate whether the daily evolution of the term structure of petroleum futures can be forecasted. To this end, the principal components analysis is employed. The retained principal components describe the dynamics of the term structure of futures prices parsimoniously and are used to forecast the subsequent daily changes of futures prices. Data on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) crude oil, heating oil, gasoline, and the International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) crude oil futures are used. We find that the retained principal components have small forecasting power both in-sample and out-of-sample. Similar results are obtained from standard univariate and vector autoregression models. Spillover effects between the four petroleum futures markets are also detected. (author)

  17. Record prices [crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

  18. Nouveaux pétroles : quel avenir ? Partie 2 New Oil: What's in the Future? Part Two

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boy De la Tour X.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available PaL'accroissement des prix de 1973 a rendu accessible toute une plage de pétroles chers, mais ces nouveaux pétroles soulèvent encore des problèmes techniques considérables et leur compétitivité économique a été très affectée par le retournement du marché pétrolier. Quel est l'état des technologies ? Que reste-t-il des ambitieux projets conçus dans les années 70 ? Aux horizons 2000/2010, quel sera l'impact de ces nouveaux pétroles, en terme de quantités et au plan stratégique ? Telles sont les questions auxquelles la présente étude tente de répondre. The increase in oil prices in 1973 made an entire range of expensive oil available, but this new oil still raises considerable technical problems, and its economic competitiveness has been greatly affected by the downturn in the oil market. What is the state of the art of existing technologies ? What remains of the ambitious projects conceived in the 1970s? As of 2000/2010, what will the impact of this new oil be in terms of amounts and from the strategic standpoint? These are the questions that the present study attempts to answer.

  19. After the oil peak - How do we build preparedness with divergent visions of the future?; Efter oljetoppen - Hur bygger vi beredskap naer framtidsbilderna gaar isaer?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Helmfrid, Hillevi; Haden, Andrew

    2006-04-15

    This report was written to highlight important issues regarding the preparedness of Swedish society for a potential scarcity of crude oil and possible rapid increases in energy prices. The report consists of nine chapters covering the following topics: Chapter 1 introduces and describes the purpose of the report. Chapter 2 summarizes the available information related to the future availability of conventional crude oil and describes the theory of oil production 'peak'. Chapter 3 examines estimates of future oil demand using IEA global demand forecasts. Chapter 4 considers the question: 'when will oil production peak'? We examine the assumptions behind the various prognoses. Chapter 5 offers a broad overview of the importance of oil consumption for society. The chapter highlights the concept of Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI) as it pertains to fossil and renewable energy sources. The EROEI of conventional crude oil has historically been very high. This is not true of many alternative fuels. In addition to discussing its various current uses, we consider the implications of oil consumption for the current economic order and for international political relations. Chapter 6 deals specifically with the role of oil in the Swedish food system, and the Swedish forestry system, which together comprise the Swedish 'green sector'. As of this writing, much attention is focused on agriculture and forestry as future energy sources for society. At the same time, we know that agriculture and forestry, as practiced today, are large consumers of fossil fuels. How this paradox can be resolved is a central question for modern societies, and implies significant changes for agriculture and forestry systems, and their associated industries. As an illustration, we offer baseline calculations of the amount of land that would need to be dedicated to raw material production for biofuels, given the current productivity of Sweden's agriculture and

  20. Oil Price Volatility and Economic Growth in Nigeria: a Vector Auto-Regression (VAR Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edesiri Godsday Okoro

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The study examined oil price volatility and economic growth in Nigeria linking oil price volatility, crude oil prices, oil revenue and Gross Domestic Product. Using quarterly data sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators (various issues spanning 1980-2010, a non‐linear model of oil price volatility and economic growth was estimated using the VAR technique. The study revealed that oil price volatility has significantly influenced the level of economic growth in Nigeria although; the result additionally indicated a negative relationship between the oil price volatility and the level of economic growth. Furthermore, the result also showed that the Nigerian economy survived on crude oil, to such extent that the country‘s budget is tied to particular price of crude oil. This is not a good sign for a developing economy, more so that the country relies almost entirely on revenue of the oil sector as a source of foreign exchange earnings. This therefore portends some dangers for the economic survival of Nigeria. It was recommended amongst others that there should be a strong need for policy makers to focus on policy that will strengthen/stabilize the economy with specific focus on alternative sources of government revenue. Finally, there should be reduction in monetization of crude oil receipts (fiscal discipline, aggressive saving of proceeds from oil booms in future in order to withstand vicissitudes of oil price volatility in future.

  1. What’s now, what’s new and what’s next in virgin olive oil elaboration systems? A perspective on current knowledge and future trends

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lisa Clodoveo

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of virgin olive oil elaboration process is to obtain the highest recovery of the best quality oil from the fruits. The aim of the researchers is to understand the key elements that allow to modulate the complex series of physical, physico-chemical, chemical and biochemical transformations in order to develop innovative and sustainable plant solutions able to increase simultaneously both yield and quality of product. The basic principles applied also in the newest olive oil industrial plants still follow the technical knowledge which have been empirically learned by humans thousands of years ago. In fact, it is well known that three factors, mixing, water adding and warming, are the three macroscopic driving forces able to favour the separation of the oily phase from the mass of crushed olives. In this consolidated scenario, can new elements emerge? The whole process should be considered more than a simple extraction of the oil present in fruit cells, but a complex elaboration of a product, which is depleted and enriched of both constitutive and neo-synthesised compounds through complex phenomena only in part discovered. In fact, while it is evident that numerous studies have been conducted to elucidate the behaviour of olive paste during virgin olive oil extraction process, a key conclusion is that the current level of understanding can be improved further by means the development of more rigorous researches with more focused targets aimed to understand the rheological changes, the coalescence phenomena, the changes in hydrophobic and hydrophilic phenomena, the partition equilibrium of minor compounds between aqueous and oily phases and, last but not least, the favourable and unfavourable enzymatic reactions. This paper provides an analysis of the present research field and its strengths and weaknesses are discussed. Potentially important future directions for research are also proposed.

  2. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, C.; Meijide, A.; June, T.; Knohl, A.

    2016-12-01

    Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia. However, despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess continuously turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. The full surface energy budget is completed by measurements of radiative components, ground heat fluxes, and soil thermal and hydrological properties. The study is part of a large interdisciplinary project focussing on the ecological and socioeconomic functions of lowland rainforest transformation systems (EFForTS). During the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture and increasing air and surface temperatures. During the peak in September and October 2015, hundreds of fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production decreasing incoming solar radiation and increasing the diffuse fraction. Compared to regular years, the carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation decreased during the ENSO event. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the Bowen-ratio. Overall, the ENSO event resulted in a major anomaly of exchange processes between the oil palm plantation and the atmosphere.

  3. Trend and current practices of palm oil mill effluent polishing: Application of advanced oxidation processes and their future perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bello, Mustapha Mohammed; Abdul Raman, Abdul Aziz

    2017-08-01

    Palm oil processing is a multi-stage operation which generates large amount of effluent. On average, palm oil mill effluent (POME) may contain up to 51, 000 mg/L COD, 25,000 mg/L BOD, 40,000 TS and 6000 mg/L oil and grease. Due to its potential to cause environmental pollution, palm oil mills are required to treat the effluent prior to discharge. Biological treatments using open ponding system are widely used for POME treatment. Although these processes are capable of reducing the pollutant concentrations, they require long hydraulic retention time and large space, with the effluent frequently failing to satisfy the discharge regulation. Due to more stringent environmental regulations, research interest has recently shifted to the development of polishing technologies for the biologically-treated POME. Various technologies such as advanced oxidation processes, membrane technology, adsorption and coagulation have been investigated. Among these, advanced oxidation processes have shown potentials as polishing technologies for POME. This paper offers an overview on the POME polishing technologies, with particularly emphasis on advanced oxidation processes and their prospects for large scale applications. Although there are some challenges in large scale applications of these technologies, this review offers some perspectives that could help in overcoming these challenges. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Reflections on oil crops as sources of energy. I - jojoba (Simmondsia chinensis), a lubricant of the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Martin, G.

    1983-06-01

    It is only in the last few years that public interest has been awakened in a modest oil-yielding shrub of the desert regions of California, Arizona (USA) and Mexico: jojoba (Simmondsia chinensis). This interest would seem to be justified in view of the qualities of the oil, which is altogether similar to sperm whale oil, and the possibilities it offers, notably as a lubricant. Naturally, as it is a rare product and its domestication has barely started, it has a fabulous market value (it reaches US $200/gal in 1981), but this will drop rapidly once development programmes get under way (already in 1983 the oil was to be found at US $ 50/55 gal). One-track research would be unprofitable. This drought-resistant shrub does not offer efficiency against desertification nor as an ally in the reclamation of climatically underprivileged, depopulated regions. This article makes an approach to a strategy and gives a broad outline for a programme. (Refs. 19).

  5. Estimation of quality and yields of products from the process of future national oils indelayed coking units; Estimativa da qualidade e dos rendimentos de produtos de coqueamento a partir do processamento de petroleos nacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Filipakis, Sofia D.; Silva, Maria do Socorro A.J. da; Guimaraes, Regina C.L. [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    As the importance of the delayed coking process increases in the Brazilian refinery scenario, it is necessary to perform a more detailed evaluation of vacuum residues potential on this kind of process. This work compares the performance of future produced and exported oils residues with those which are references nowadays as delayed coking feeding. This information is essential for the prediction of the future quality and yield of the products generated by this process, and for the determination of the oils value for exportation. For this purpose, a process simulator was used considering the operational conditions of a real delayed coking unit. The carbon residue and asphaltenes ratio from the residues were also evaluated. This simulation demonstrated that most of the future oils will produce a high quality coke from the point of view of crystallinity and metals content, and it will present high contents of both volatile matter and sulphur. The exported oils residues are likely to show good crystallinity. (author)

  6. China and the relationship between the oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Benassy-Quere, Agnes; Mignon, Valerie; Penot, Alexis

    2007-01-01

    We study cointegration and causality between the real price of oil and the real price of the dollar over the 1974-2004 period. Our results suggest that a 10% rise in the oil price coincides with a 4.3% appreciation of the dollar in the long run, and that the causality runs from oil to the dollar. Through the development of a theoretical model, we then investigate possible reasons why this relationship could be reversed in the future due to the emergence of China as a major player on both the oil and the foreign exchange markets

  7. The oil market in the 1980s -- a decade of decline

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shojai, S.; Katz, B.S.

    1992-01-01

    Part 1 of this volume presents a profile of the economic dislocations and hardships that resulted from the breakup of OPEC and non-OPEC nation oil exporters. The economies and economic plans of these nations were buffeted by the oil price decline. Slowed foreign exchange receipts, declining terms of trade, and fluctuating exchange rates all mitigated against oil suppliers. Part 2 investigates a range of oil importer responses to the economic ramifications of rising (1970s) and declining (1980s) oil prices. While the oil-importing Western nations adjusted to and benefited from the declining oil prices and oil suppliers bore the cost, there were also disparate economic effects on the developing world. Part 3 investigates the oil price decline fallout. The experiences of the 1980s permit an extended analysis of market conditions resulting from changes in the price of oil. Part 4 attempts to come to grips with the impact of price changes and future developments in the international world oil market

  8. Regulatory impact assessment : future of UK's system for holding stocks of oil for use in the event of disruption

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2007-01-01

    This consultation document focuses on the adaption of the United Kingdom government's system for holding emergency stocks of oil to ensure the compliance with international obligations and security of energy supply objectives. The background to the study is traced, and the rational for government intervention is discussed along with the current system which bases obligations on company sales into final consumption, and the urgent need for a new system. Consultation within government resulting in agreement that the system should continue to be based on company obligations and public consultations are discussed. Potential options are assessed and problems with continuing with the existing system based on company obligations are highlighted

  9. The impact of the 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget in an Indonesian oil palm plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stiegler, Christian; Meijide, Ana; June, Tania; Knohl, Alexander

    2017-04-01

    The 2015-2016 El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event was one of the strongest observed in the last 20 years. Oil palm plantations cover a large fraction of tropical lowlands in Southeast Asia but despite their growing areal extent, measurements and observations of greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy balance are still scarce. In addition, the effects of extreme events such as ENSO on carbon sequestration and the partitioning of surface energy balance components are widely unknown. In this study, we use micrometeorological measurements located in commercial oil palm plantations in the Jambi province (Sumatra, Indonesia) to assess the impact of the 2015-2016 ENSO event and severe forest fires on greenhouse gas exchange and surface energy budget. Continuous measurements are in operation since July 2013 and we assess turbulent fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2), water vapour and sensible heat using the eddy covariance technique before, during and after the 2015-2016 ENSO event. In the beginning of the ENSO event, the area experienced a strong drought with decreasing soil moisture, increasing air and surface temperatures, and strong atmospheric vapour pressure deficit. During the peak of the drought from August to October 2015, hundreds of forest fires in the area resulted in strong smoke production, decreasing incoming solar radiation by 35% compared to pre-ENSO values and diffuse radiation became almost the sole shortwave radiation flux. During the beginning of the drought, carbon uptake of the oil palm plantation was around 2.1 gC m-2 d-1 and initially increased by 50% due to clear-sky conditions and high incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) but increasing density of smoke turned the oil palm plantation into a source of carbon. The turbulent heat fluxes experienced an increase in sensible heat fluxes due to drought conditions at the cost of latent heat fluxes resulting in an increase in the midday Bowen-ratio from 0.17 to 0.40. Strong smoke

  10. Prospect and policy of palm oil mill effluents for future electricity in east kalimantan (utilization of pome as renewable energy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aipassa, M. I.; Kristiningrum, R.; Tarukan, V. Y.

    2018-04-01

    East Kalimantan economy for four decades was mainly based on natural resources extraction and dominated by primary sectorwith the six highest GDP in 2013. But, the contribution of oil and gas were decreasing production due to the absence of new wells.One of the mission was create natural resources and renewable energy based economic people oriented. The Goverment of EK Province chose a strategy of socio-economic transformation based on renewable natural resources. This strategy has been applied in the regional development plan by mainstreaming climate change issues. Data related to energy source and its potential, remote rural electrification, bioenergy feedstock, etc including from the Palm Oil company was collected and subsequently analized in line with the EK Governor Letter. Currently (2014) available of Biogas-Pome as bioenergy feedstock is 162 million m3year-1, where as currently utilized is only 22 millionm3year-1. Power demand supply status in January 2015 indicated as available capacity is 467 MW where the peak demand is 444 MW. About 22% of households without electricity are difficult to be electrified without breakthrough efforts. About 215 thousand households are un-electrified, with more power need about 150 MW in total capacity. As business opportunity, high demand for rural electrification, particularly in Kutai Kartanegera, Kutai Timur, Kutai Barat, Berau and Paser.

  11. Challenges and Prospects of Exchange Activities and Collaborative Learning Towards the Construction of Inclusive Education System : Focusing on eff ective methods of collaborative learning in the future

    OpenAIRE

    Kawai, Norimune; Nosaki, Hitomi

    2014-01-01

    Various studies on Exchange Activities have been conducted and revealed many instruction methods to promote exchanging between students with disabilities and those without disabilities. However, for Collaborative Learning that takes place in children between those students, the number of research studies are limited despite the fact that the importance of research on Collaborative Learning has been pointed out by many researchers and teachers. In this study, the nature of Exchange Activities ...

  12. Supply-demand controls the futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, D.

    1991-01-01

    This paper briefly discusses the futures market of petroleum and explains how futures operate. The purpose of the paper is to demonstrate that oil futures markets does no determine energy prices - it merely reflects the prices recorded through trades made in an open marketplace. A futures contract is an agreement between a buyer and a seller at a price that seems fair to both. High demand from buyers can push prices up; low demand or a willingness to sell pushes prices down. As a result, supply and demand control the futures exchange and not vice-versa. The paper goes on to explain some basic principals of the futures market including the differences between hedging and speculating on prices and marketing strategy

  13. Le futur prix de l'énergie : faut-il orienter les prix du pétrole vers la hausse? The Future Price of Energy. Should Oil Prices Be Allowed to Driff Upwards?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desprairies P.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available II est à peu près universellement admis que les prix du pétrole vont augmenter d'ici la fin du siècle, du fait de l'épuisement des ressources de pétrole conventionnel à bon marché. L'évolution souhaitable des prix et leur niveau futur font par contre l'objet d'opinions variées. L'analyse du problème ne fait pas apparaître de raisons d'une hausse immédiate des prix au pétrole brut, ni de leur alignement à échéance rapide sur le prix des pétroles non-conventionnels les plus chers. Dans les prochaines années c'est l'offre et la demande de pétrole conventionnel qui commanderont les prix du pétrole, c'est-à-dire, le rythme d'investissements dans le pétrole conventionnel, le charbon, et l'électricité nucléaire. La hausse en prix constants peut difficilement reprendre avant qu'aient disparu les surplus de capacité de production, c'est-à-dire guère avant 1983/1985 si la croissance économique et l'offre de pétrole continuent d'évoluer aux allures actuellement prévisibles. Si l'on est tenté d'évaluer aux alentours du prix de vente actuel majoré de 50 %, soit une vingtaine de dollars (1978 le prix à long terme du pétrole, c'est beaucoup plus par référence aux souhaits supposés des pays producteurs et au pouvoir d'achat des pays acheteurs qu'au coct de production du pétrole non-conventionnel. Il est aujourd'hui peu probable que le dialogue entre pays exportateurs et acheteurs de pétrole, point de départ d'une hausse programmée des prix, se noue avant qu'une crise d'approvisionnements plus ou moins sévère n'ait rendu manifeste la nécessité d'un tel dialogue. It is almost universolly accepted that oil prices will rise between now and the end of the century on account of the depletion of cheop conventional oil resources. The evolution to be desired for prices and their future level, on the other hand, is the subiect of differing opinions. An onalysis of the problem does not reveal any raasons for an immediate

  14. Psychodynamic Leadership Approach and Leader-Member Exchange (LMX): A Psychiatric Perspective on Two Leadership Theories and Implications for Training Future Psychiatrist Leaders.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plakiotis, Christos

    2017-01-01

    An increased emphasis in recent years on psychiatrists as healthcare leaders has not only drawn attention to the skills they can bring to this role but has also raised questions about how to best train and prepare them to assume leadership responsibilities. Such training should not be conducted in isolation from, and oblivious to, the wide-ranging expertise in human behaviour and relationships that psychiatrists can bring to the leadership arena. The aim of this theoretical paper is to draw attention to how psychiatrists can use their existing knowledge and skill set to inform their understanding of leadership theory and practice. In particular, the Psychodynamic Leadership Approach and Leader-Member Exchange theory are compared and contrasted to illustrate this point. The former represents a less well-known approach to leadership theory and practice whereas the latter is a widely familiar, conventional theory that is regularly taught in leadership courses. Both are underpinned by their emphasis on leader-follower relationships-and human relationships more broadly-and are intuitively appealing to psychiatrists endeavouring to understand aspects of organisational behaviour in the healthcare settings in which they work and lead. The application of these theories to assist reflection on and understanding of professional and personal leadership behaviours through leadership-oriented Balint-style groups and 360-degree appraisal is proposed. It is hoped that this paper will serve to stimulate thought and discussion about how leadership training for future psychiatrists can be tailored to better harness their existing competencies, thereby developing richer formative learning experiences and, ultimately, achieving superior leadership outcomes.

  15. Future development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zavitz, J.; Hetherington, C.

    1997-01-01

    Issues regarding future development by oil and gas companies in Canada's Arctic and the Beaufort Sea were discussed. It was suggested in the Berger report that Northern development should be under the control of the people whose lives and economy are being changed. Aboriginal people are now much more sophisticated politically, and have a better understanding of what is involved. Most of them would like the financial benefits from development, but the development would have to be on their terms. Most people involved with Arctic oil exploration feel that there is enough oil in the Arctic to warrant production. (Reserves in the Beaufort Sea are estimated at two billion barrels of good quality oil). If development were to continue, there exist two methods of transportation to move the oil to market. Gulf, Imperial Oil and Panarctic favour the use of pipelines, whereas Dome Petroleum Ltd. favours the use of ice-breaking tankers. In each case the favored option seems to depend upon the location of the company's leases, the capital and operating costs, and the potential environmental impacts. Undoubtedly, any future development will be guided by the scientific information and technical expertise of oil industry pioneers of the 1960s and the 1970s, and the wisdom gained from the experiences of the many participants whose views and insights are recorded in this book

  16. Response of net ecosystem CO2 exchange and evapotranspiration of boreal forest ecosystems to projected future climate changes: results of a modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olchev, Alexander; Kurbatova, Julia

    2014-05-01

    It is presented the modeling results describing the possible response of net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), gross (GPP) and net (NPP) primary production, as well as evapotranspiration (ET) of spruce forest ecosystems situated at central part of European part of Russia at the southern boundary of boreal forest community to projected future changes of climatic conditions and forest species composition. A process-based MixFor-SVAT model (Olchev et al 2002, 2008, 2009) has been used to describe the CO2 and H2O fluxes under present and projected future climate conditions. The main advantage of MixFor-SVAT is its ability not only to describe seasonal and daily dynamics of total CO2 and H2O fluxes at an ecosystem level, but also to adequately estimate the contributions of soil, forest understorey, and various tree species in overstorey into total ecosystem fluxes taking into account their individual responses to changes in environmental conditions as well as the differences in structure and biophysical properties. Results of modeling experiments showed that projected changes of climate conditions (moderate scenario A1B IPCC) and forest species composition at the end of 21 century can lead to small increase of annual evapotranspiration as well as to growth of NEE, GPP and NPP of the forests in case if the projected increase in temperature and elevated CO2 in the atmosphere in future will be strictly balanced with growth of available nutrients and water in plant and soil. It is obvious that any deficit of e.g. nitrogen in leaves (due to reduced transpiration, nitrogen availability in soil, etc.) may lead to decreases in the photosynthesis and respiration rates of trees and, as a consequence, to decreases in the GPP and NEE of entire forest ecosystem. Conducted modeling experiments have demonstrated that a 20% reduction of available nitrogen in tree leaves in a monospesific spruce forest stand may result in a 14% decrease in NEE, a 8% decrease in NPP, and a 4% decrease in

  17. Quantifying the effects of oil shocks on long-term public debt: A review of empirical data and a scenario analysis of future projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMichael, Jillian Taylor

    Various authors have shown that each oil shock in the past 40 years has had statistically significant impacts on subsequent macroeconomic activity in the United States. Through these economic effects, oil shocks affect Federal revenues and expenditures and hence public debt. Published Federal budget scenarios do not currently reflect these impacts of oil shocks. I synthesize, in this paper, literature quantifying the impact of oil price increases on GDP growth and use that information to modify current long-term Federal budget models to present scenarios of how oil shocks are likely to affect long-term Federal debt. I argue that modeling the impact of oil price increases on long-term public debt could inform public policies, particularly those relating to Federal investments in energy conservation. Key Words: crude oil, oil shock, oil price spike, oil shock, Federal debt, debt projections, Congressional Budget Office

  18. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  19. The Future of the CEMAC CFA Franc

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julius Agbor Agbor

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A total of 80 currency boards have come into existence at some point since the mid-19th century, but to date only about 15 of them still exist, among which is the CFA franc monetary zone. The future sustainability of the CFA franc zone, to which the CEMAC CFA franc belongs, is increasingly questioned in the light of increasing asymmetries in exposure to external shocks, differential speeds of adjustment of the real exchange rate following shocks, differential impacts in economic fundamentals, and low levels of intra-regional trade and financial flows between CEMAC and WAEMU. For the CEMAC bloc of countries in particular, the future sustainability of the fixed exchange regime depends crucially on continued oil exports, which currently represent about 90percent of export revenues and 40 percent of GDP. Should oil reserves deplete in the near future or oil prices decline significantly, a substantial source of foreign reserves would be lost, thereby exposing the regime to collapse. Even without resource depletion, continued volatility in global financial markets is increasing the risks of collapse of the fixed exchange regime as oil and commodity price swings ignite currency speculation as well as render reserves much more volatile. Against this backdrop, the present study examines the stakes facing the CEMAC CFA franc, discusses the exit options from the currency board and makes recommendations towards a sustainable monetary policy framework for CEMAC countries going forward. The analysis points to the imperative of pursuing a full monetary union with a single CEMAC franc pegged to the U.S. dollar and further suggest that, like the experience of the eurozone, the CEMAC monetary arrangement can be best implemented only by complying with the principle of political union.

  20. A new oil crisis?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haffner, R.C.G.; Van Herpt, I.R.Y.

    2000-01-01

    Recent developments in the oil market are discussed, focusing on the causes of recent price increase, expectations for the near future, why previous oil crises resulted into a recession, and the expected consequences of the oil price increase for the economic growth and inflation. The negative consequences of the high oil price for the European economy can be limited under the condition that claims for higher wages are moderate. 2 refs

  1. Futures Brokerages Face uncertain Future

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG PEI

    2006-01-01

    @@ 2005 was a quiet year for China's futures market.After four new trading products, including cotton, fuel oil and corn, were launched on the market in 2004, the development of the market seemed to stagnate. The trade value of the futures market totaled 13.4 trillion yuan (US$ 1.67 trillion) in 2005, down 8.5 percent year-on-year. Although the decrease is quite small and the trade value was still the second highest in the market's history, the majority of futures brokerage firms were running in the red. In some areas, up to 80 percent of futures companies made losses.

  2. Oil price and the dollar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coudert, V.; Mignon, V.; Penot, A.

    2007-01-01

    Oil prices and the United States (US) dollar exchange rate are driving the evolution of the world economy. This paper investigated long-term relationships between oil prices and the US effective exchange rate. An empirical study was performed on oil prices and the dollar real effective exchange rate between 1974 to 2004. The impact of the dollar exchange rate was also explored, and the effects of oil prices on supply and demand were considered. A dynamic partial equilibrium framework study was evaluated in order to compare how other countries used revenues from oil exports in dollars. The study showed that both variables had similar evolutions when price fluctuations were low. Strong increases in the dollar were associated with lower oil prices. However, adjustment speeds of the dollar real effective exchange rate was slow. Co-integration and causality tests showed that oil prices influenced the exchange rate, and that the link between the 2 variables was transmitted through the country's net foreign asset position. It was concluded that higher oil prices improved US net foreign asset position in relation to other countries, and had a positive impact on dollar appreciation. 24 refs., 6 tabs., 1 fig

  3. PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1998 OIL HEAT TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCDONALD,R.J.

    1998-04-01

    The 1998 Oil Heat Technology Conference will be held on April 7--8 at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) under sponsorship by the US Department of Energy, Office of Building Technologies, State and Community Programs (DOE/BTS). The meeting will be held in cooperation with the Petroleum Marketers Association of America (PMAA). The 1998 Oil Heat Technology Conference, will be the twelfth since 1984, is an important technology transfer activity and is supported by the ongoing Combustion Equipment Technology (Oilheat R and D) program at BNL. The reason for the conference is to provide a forum for the exchange of information and perspectives among international researchers, engineers, manufacturers and marketers of oil-fired space-conditioning equipment. They will provide a channel by which information and ideas can be exchanged to examine present technologies, as well as helping to develop the future course for oil heating advancement. These conferences also serve as a stage for unifying government representatives, researchers, fuel oil marketers, and other members of the oil-heat industry in addressing technology advancements in this important energy use sector. The specific objectives of the Conference are to: (1) Identify and evaluate the current state-of-the-art and recommend new initiatives for higher efficiency, a cleaner environment, and to satisfy consumer needs cost-effectively, reliably, and safely; and (2) Foster cooperative interactions among federal and industrial representatives for the common goal of sustained economic growth and energy security via energy conservation.

  4. An innovative treatment concept for future drinking water production : Fluidized ion exchange – ultrafiltration – nanofiltration – granular activated carbon filtration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, S.; Heijman, S.G.J.; Verberk, J.Q.J.C.; Van Dijk, J.C.

    2009-01-01

    A new treatment concept for drinking water production from surface water has been investigated on a pilot scale. The treatment concept consists of fluidized ion exchange (FIEX), ultrafiltration (UF), nanofiltration (NF), and granular activated carbon filtration (GAC). The FIEX process removed

  5. In-vitro evaluation of limitations and possibilities for the future use of intracorporeal gas exchangers placed in the upper lobe position.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schumer, Erin; Höffler, Klaus; Kuehn, Christian; Slaughter, Mark; Haverich, Axel; Wiegmann, Bettina

    2018-03-01

    The lack of donor organs has led to the development of alternative "destination therapies", such as a bio-artificial lung (BA) for end-stage lung disease. Ultimately aiming at a fully implantable BA, general capabilities and limitations of different oxygenators were tested based on the model of BA positioning at the right upper lobe. Three different-sized oxygenators (neonatal, paediatric, and adult) were tested in a mock circulation loop regarding oxygenation and decarboxylation capacities for three respiratory pathologies. Blood flows were imitated by a roller pump, and respiration was imitated by a mechanical ventilator with different FiO 2 applications. Pressure drops across the oxygenators and the integrity of the gas-exchange hollow fibers were analyzed. The neonatal oxygenator proved to be insufficient regarding oxygenation and decarboxylation. Despite elevated pCO 2 levels, the paediatric and adult oxygenators delivered comparable sufficient oxygen levels, but sufficient decarboxylation across the oxygenators was ensured only at flow rates of 0.5 L min. Only the adult oxygenator indicated no significant pressure drops. For all tested conditions, gas-exchange hollow fibers remained intact. This is the first study showing the general feasibility of delivering sufficient levels of gas exchange to an intracorporeal BA via patient's breathing, without damaging gas-exchange hollow fiber membranes.

  6. PROCEEDINGS OF THE 1999 OIL HEAT TECHNOLOGY CONFERENCE AND WORKSHOP.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    MCDONALD,R.J.

    1999-04-01

    The 1999 Oil Heat Technology Conference and Workshop, April 15-16 at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) is sponsored by the U. S. Department of Energy, Office of Building Technology, State and Community Programs (DOEBTS). The meeting is also co-sponsored by the: Petroleum Marketers Association of America, New England Fuel Institute, Oilheat Manufacturers Association, National Association of Oil Heat Service Managers, New York State Energy Research and Development Authority, Empire State Petroleum Association, New York Oil Heating Association, Oil Heat Institute of Long Island, and the Pennsylvania Petroleum Association. BNL is proud to acknowledge all of our 1999 co-sponsors, without their help and support the conference would have been canceled due to budget restrictions. It is quite gratifying to see an industry come together to help support an activity like the technology conference, for the benefit of the industry as a whole. The 1999 Oil Heat Technology Conference and Workshop, will be the thirteenth since 1984, is a very valuable technology transfer activity supported by the ongoing Combustion Equipment Technology (Oilheat R and D) program at BNL. The foremost reason for the conference is to provide a platform for the exchange of information and perspectives among international researchers, engineers, manufacturers, service technicians, and marketers of oil-fired space-conditioning equipment. They will provide a conduit by which information and ideas can be exchanged to examine present technologies, as well as helping to develop the future course for oil heating advancement. These conferences also serve as a stage for unifying government representatives, researchers, fuel oil marketers, and other members of the oil-heat industry in addressing technology advancements in this important energy use sector.

  7. XML-based formulation of field theoretical models. A proposal for a future standard and data base for model storage, exchange and cross-checking of results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demichev, A.; Kryukov, A.; Rodionov, A.

    2002-01-01

    We propose an XML-based standard for formulation of field theoretical models. The goal of creation of such a standard is to provide a way for an unambiguous exchange and cross-checking of results of computer calculations in high energy physics. At the moment, the suggested standard implies that models under consideration are of the SM or MSSM type (i.e., they are just SM or MSSM, their submodels, smooth modifications or straightforward generalizations). (author)

  8. Property description and fact-finding report for NPR-3 Natrona County, Wyoming. Addendum to 22 August 1996 study of alternatives for future operations of the naval petroleum and oil shale reserves NPR-3

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-05-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy has asked Gustavson Associates, Inc. to serve as an Independent Petroleum Consultant under contract DE-AC01-96FE64202. This authorizes a study and recommendations regarding future development of Naval Petroleum Reserve No. 3 (NPR-3) in Natrona County, Wyoming. The report that follows is the Phase I fact-finding and property description for that study. The United States of America owns 100 percent of the mineral rights and surface rights in 9,321-acre NPR-3. This property comprises the Teapot Dome oil field and related production, processing and other facilities. Discovered in 1914, this field has 632 wells producing 1,807 barrels of oil per day. Production revenues are about $9.5 million per year. Remaining recoverable reserves are approximately 1.3 million barrels of oil. Significant plugging and abandonment (P&A) and environmental liabilities are present.

  9. 1999 Crude oil market outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cochener, J.

    1998-01-01

    Baseline projection handling of crude oil prices was discussed, based on actual crude oil price trends from 1992 to 1998. Attention was drawn to the lack of correlation between crude oil and natural gas prices. Predictions for crude oil production were extended to the year 2015. As far as the immediate future is concerned the crude oil price for 1999 was predicted to continue to be sluggish due to competitive pressure from refined products at burner tip. tabs., figs

  10. Mexican oil industry: Shifting to difficult oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bazan G., Gerardo; Gonzalez, Cristobal J.

    2010-09-15

    Mexico has stepped into an important transition of declining oil fields and new challenging oil projects. The aim of this paper is to show a new perspective of the oil resources that have been exploited throughout the Mexican territory, as well as the remaining resources yet to be exploited. We have developed a resources/production-costs chart that illustrates the historical and future development of the Mexican oil industry, showing the shift that the industry will face in the coming years; this chart was taken from a model already in use by the most prestige energy agencies in the world.

  11. Oil fields of the future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernhardt, W; Held, W; Koenig, A

    1981-06-15

    The recent changes in the raw material- and energy-sector have given rise to a rethinking of the field of fuel technology. The Energy Research and New Technologies Department at Volkswagenwerk AG is thus intensively engaged in processes for the production of alternative fuels from biomass. The alcohols ethanol and methanol are well suited for use in the motor vehicle. Bearing in mind the conditions obtaining in individual countries and with the application of the latest bio-technology the production of alcohol in various countries can soon become economically viable.

  12. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dostatni, A.W.; Dostatni, Michel.

    1976-01-01

    In the main patent, a description was given of a heat exchanger with an exchange surface in preformed sheet metal designed for the high pressure and temperature service particularly encountered in nuclear pressurized water reactors and which is characterised by the fact that it is composed of at least one exchanger bundle sealed in a containment, the said bundle or bundles being composed of numerous juxtaposed individual compartments whose exchange faces are built of preformed sheet metal. The present addendun certificate concerns shapes of bundles and their positioning methods in the exchanger containment enabling its compactness to be increased [fr

  13. Implementation of a World Wide Web server for the oil and gas industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blaylock, R.E.; Martin, F.D.; Emery, R.

    1996-01-01

    The Gas and Oil Technology Exchange and Communication Highway (GO-TECH) provides an electronic information system for the petroleum community for exchanging ideas, data, and technology. The PC-based system fosters communication and discussion by linking the oil and gas producers with resource centers, government agencies, consulting firms, service companies, national laboratories, academic research groups, and universities throughout the world. The oil and gas producers can access the GO-TECH World Wide Web (WWW) home page through modem links, as well as through the Internet. Future GO-TECH applications will include the establishment of virtual corporations consisting of consortia of small companies, consultants, and service companies linked by electronic information systems. These virtual corporations will have the resources and expertise previously found only in major corporations

  14. Changes in gas exchange characteristics during the life span of giant sequoia: Implications for response to current and future concentrations of atmospheric ozone

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grulke, N.E.; Miller, P.R. (USDA Forest Service, Riverside, CA (United States))

    Native stands of giant sequoia are being exposed to relatively high concentrations of atmospheric ozone produced in urban and agricultural areas upwind. The expected change in environmental conditions over the next 100 y is likely to be unprecendented in the life span (ca 2,500 y) of giant sequoia. Changes in the physiological responses of three age classes of giant sequoia (current year, 12 y and 25 y) to different concentrations of ozone were determined, and age-related differences in sensitivity to pollutants were assessed by examining physiological changes (gas exchange, water use efficiency) across the life span of giant sequoia. The CO[sub 2] exchange rate (CER) was greater in current year (12.1 [mu]mol CO[sub 2]/m[sup 2]s) and 2 year old seedlings (4.8 [mu]mol CO[sub 2]/m[sup 2]s) than in all older trees (average of 3.0 [mu]mol CO[sub 2]/m[sup 2]s). Dark respiration was highest for current year seedlings and was increased twofold in symptotic individuals exposed to elevated ozone concentrations. Stomatal conductance was greater in current-year and 2 year old seedlings (335 and 200 mmol H[sub 2]O/m[sup 2]s), respectively, than in all older trees (50 mmol H[sub 2]O/m[sup 2]s), indicating that the ozone concentration in substomatol cavities is higher in young seedlings than in older trees. Significant changes in water use efficiency occurred in trees between ages 5 and 20 years. It is concluded that giant sequoia seedlings are sensitive to atmospheric ozone until they are ca 5 y old. Low conductance, high water use efficiency, and compact mesophyll all contribute to a natural ozone tolerance, or defense, or both, in foliage of older trees. 11 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  15. A Study on the efficient alleviation of domestic oil price at international oil crisis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Young Ku [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

    1999-01-01

    For alleviating domestic oil price when the international oil crisis happens, the government has been reacted directly such as using stored oil or alleviation fund. Although the release of stored oil works for short-term depending on the type of crisis, concerning that most of oil crisis had been resulted in temporary supply reduction rather than long-term supply suspension, utilizing the domestic alleviation fund is regarded more economical than storing oil. However, it has been suggested to compare efficiencies of alleviation fund and a futures market regarding the perspectives that using alleviation fund is more inefficient than utilizing a futures market. Moreover, the direct management by government is less efficient than indirect management. As an efficient way to alleviate domestic oil price at international oil crisis, this study presents an effective utilization of trading in futures of crude oil. There is a high probability of occurrence of this kind of oil crisis by judging from the world political situation and the trend of oil market. In such a case, the government as a crude oil importer should minimize the stored oil and utilize a futures market effectively. The subject of alleviating oil price by trading in futures is an oil supplier, such as oil refining companies or oil importers not the government as a prerequisite. Furthermore, the government should approve to include appropriate cost for preparing oil price alleviation in the oil price and it is required that such a government policy should be consistent. (author). 41 refs., 3 figs., 15 Tabs.

  16. Outlook for Saskatchewan heavy oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Youzwa, P.

    1993-01-01

    Some of the opportunities and challenges currently facing the heavy oil industry in Saskatchewan are discussed from a government perspective. By the end of September 1993, 220 heavy oil wells were drilled in the province, and 26% of the land sales in 1993 were in heavy oil areas. About 41% of the wells drilled in heavy oil areas were horizontal oil wells. Of the total horizontal wells drilled in Saskatchewan, 48% are for heavy oil, and horizontal well production averages 85 bbl/d. Initial trends suggest that horizontal wells both accelerate production and contribute to ultimate recovery. Total heavy oil production in 1992 reached 28.9 million bbl and recoverable reserves in 1991 were 262.3 million bbl, or 1.5% of total oil in place. The low recovery is not only due to technical factors such as high viscosity but also to low investment in the heavy oil sector due to poor economics. It is hoped that lower interest and exchange rates, the success of horizontal wells and the provincial royalty structure will maintain the recent increase in heavy oil activity. The provincial government recently launched a comprehensive energy strategy in which development of a heavy oil strategy is an important component. Total heavy oil reserves exceed those of light and medium oil and have significant development potential. The Saskatchewan government wishes to adopt a cooperative and partnership approach in its dealings with the heavy oil industry to help realize this potential. 9 figs

  17. Effect of pre-roast moisture content and post roast cooling parameters on oil migration during oil roasting of peanuts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oil migration affects the quality and shelf-life of food products and consequently has an impact on overall consumer acceptance. Exchange of oil may occur during or after oil roasting of peanuts but little is known about the factors contributing to this exchange. This study examines the effect of p...

  18. The relationship between information content of depreciation and abnormal return and future benefits in manufacturing companies in Tehran Stock Exchange(TSE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Zare

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In present study by virtue of the importance of  the fiscal statement contents and illiquid items ignored by the merchant the depreciation contents relation with abnormal return of the shares and future benefits are examined in order to influence the items under consideration of the investors to take related decisions; 94 companies were selected from the accessible universe in five years (2006-2010 to have the data necessary for the study in order to achieve the goal. The simple and multivariable regression statistical techniques Chow and Hausman  Test were used to test the hypotheses. The significant test was conducted for the paradigms by using the ‘F’ and ‘T’ statistics. The study findings show there is no relation between the depreciation expense and abnormal return and there is a significant and positive relation between the depreciation expense and future benefits.Key Words: Abnormal return, Information Contents, depreciation, abnormal return.

  19. Palm Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palm oil is obtained from the fruit of the oil palm tree. Palm oil is used for preventing vitamin A deficiency, cancer, ... blood pressure, high cholesterol, and cyanide poisoning. Palm oil is used for weight loss and increasing the ...

  20. Diesel oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oil ... Diesel oil ... Diesel oil poisoning can cause symptoms in many parts of the body. EYES, EARS, NOSE, AND THROAT Loss of ... most dangerous effects of hydrocarbon (such as diesel oil) poisoning are due to inhaling the fumes. NERVOUS ...

  1. Oil shale commercialization study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warner, M.M.

    1981-09-01

    Ninety four possible oil shale sections in southern Idaho were located and chemically analyzed. Sixty-two of these shales show good promise of possible oil and probable gas potential. Sixty of the potential oil and gas shales represent the Succor Creek Formation of Miocene age in southwestern Idaho. Two of the shales represent Cretaceous formations in eastern Idaho, which should be further investigated to determine their realistic value and areal extent. Samples of the older Mesozonic and paleozoic sections show promise but have not been chemically analyzed and will need greater attention to determine their potential. Geothermal resources are of high potential in Idaho and are important to oil shale prospects. Geothermal conditions raise the geothermal gradient and act as maturing agents to oil shale. They also might be used in the retorting and refining processes. Oil shales at the surface, which appear to have good oil or gas potential should have much higher potential at depth where the geothermal gradient is high. Samples from deep petroleum exploration wells indicate that the succor Creek shales have undergone considerable maturation with depth of burial and should produce gas and possibly oil. Most of Idaho's shales that have been analyzed have a greater potential for gas than for oil but some oil potential is indicated. The Miocene shales of the Succor Creek Formation should be considered as gas and possibly oil source material for the future when technology has been perfectes. 11 refs.

  2. Oil-based technology and economy. Prospects for the future. A short introduction to basic issues and a review of oil depletion projections derived from different theories and methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Illum, K.

    2004-03-01

    The evidence presented in this review shows that forecasts made by governmental and international institutions differ markedly from the results of analyses made by individual, independent researchers and some analysts representing the oil industry. The oil industry's analysts point to ever greater costs of matching growing demand with supply from an aging resource base. Depending mainly on developments in the Middle East and the development of the world economy in the coming years, production may peak within one or two decades. It is a question of geology, technology, economy, and the policies conducted by various nations. The trouble is that no realistic technological, economic and political strategies for the warding off of the impacts of a decline in conventional oil supply are in sight. (AU)

  3. Oil spills

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Katsouros, M.H.

    1992-01-01

    The world annually transports 1.7 billion tons of oil by sea, and oil spills, often highly concentrated discharges, are increasing from a variety of sources. The author discusses sources of oils spills: natural; marine transportation; offshore oil production; atmospheric sources; municipal industrial wastes and runoff. Other topics include: the fate of the spilled oil; the effects of the oil; the response to oil spills; and prevention of oil spills. 30 refs., 1 fig., 4 tabs

  4. An innovative treatment concept for future drinking water production: fluidized ion exchange – ultrafiltration – nanofiltration – granular activated carbon filtration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. C. van Dijk

    2009-08-01

    Full Text Available A new treatment concept for drinking water production from surface water has been investigated on a pilot scale. The treatment concept consists of fluidized ion exchange (FIEX, ultrafiltration (UF, nanofiltration (NF, and granular activated carbon filtration (GAC. The FIEX process removed calcium and other divalent cations; the UF membrane removed particles and micro-organisms; and the NF membrane and GAC removed natural organic matter (NOM and micro-pollutants. This study focused on the prevention of fouling of the UF and scaling of the NF and investigated the overall removal of micro-pollutants by the treatment concept. The results of the experiments showed that in 14 days of continuous operation at a flux of 65 l/h m2 the UF performance was stable with the FIEX pre-treated feed water without the aid of a coagulant. The scaling of the NF was also not observed even at 97% recovery. Different micro-pollutants were spiked in the NF feed water and their concentrations in the effluent of NF and GAC were measured. The combination of NF and GAC removed most of the micro-pollutants successfully, except for the very polar substances with a molecular weight lower than 100 Daltons.

  5. Oil Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... up. How Oil Harms Animals and Plants in Marine Environments In general, oil spills can affect animals and plants in two ways: from the oil ... up. How Oil Harms Animals and Plants in Marine Environments In general, oil spills can affect animals and plants in two ways: from the oil ...

  6. Impacts of current and projected oil palm plantation expansion on air quality over Southeast Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. J. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Over recent decades oil palm plantations have rapidly expanded across Southeast Asia (SEA. According to the United Nations, oil palm production in SEA increased by a factor of 3 from 1995 to 2010. We investigate the impacts of current (2010 and near-term future (2020 projected oil palm expansion in SEA on surface–atmosphere exchange and the resulting air quality in the region. For this purpose, we use satellite data, high-resolution land maps, and the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem. Relative to a no oil palm plantation scenario (∼ 1990, overall simulated isoprene emissions in the region increased by 13 % due to oil palm plantations in 2010 and a further 11 % in the near-term future. In addition, the expansion of palm plantations leads to local increases in ozone deposition velocities of up to 20 %. The net result of these changes is that oil palm expansion in SEA increases surface O3 by up to 3.5 ppbv over dense urban regions, and in the near-term future could rise more than 4.5 ppbv above baseline levels. Biogenic secondary organic aerosol loadings also increase by up to 1 µg m−3 due to oil palm expansion, and could increase by a further 2.5 µg m−3 in the near-term future. Our analysis indicates that while the impact of recent oil palm expansion on air quality in the region has been significant, the retrieval error and sensitivity of the current constellation of satellite measurements limit our ability to observe these impacts from space. Oil palm expansion is likely to continue to degrade air quality in the region in the coming decade and hinder efforts to achieve air quality regulations in major urban areas such as Kuala Lumpur and Singapore.

  7. Hedging with futures contracts in the Brazilian soybean complex: BM&F vs. CBOT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Regina O. da Silva

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the effectiveness of hedging Brazilian soy oil, soy meal, and soybeans in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT and in the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&F to reduce the risk of financial loss due to commodity price fluctuations. The econometric results show that a cross-hedging strategy using the BM&F soybean futures contract is an instrument of low effectiveness for managing soy oil and soy meal price risk. Despite low effectiveness, the estimates demonstrate total advantage for soy meal hedging operations using CBOT soy meal futures contracts rather than cross-hedging using BM&F soybean futures contracts. With some exceptions, the results are also more favorable for hedging soy oil with soy oil futures contracts at the CBOT rather than cross hedging with soybeans at the BM&F. Conversely, Brazilian traders hedging soybeans receive more effective risk protection by trading soybean futures contracts at the BM&F than by trading soybean futures contracts at the CBOT.

  8. The functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hughes, G.; Siner, M.; Tijdhof, B.

    2003-01-01

    The title study regarding the functioning of the oil market during an oil crisis is carried out with particular reference to the strategic behaviour of oil companies. Section 2 identifies major oil supply disruptions since 1951 and describes some important changes in the market that have occurred in recent decades; Section 3 reviews the economic literature of the functioning of oil markets during disruptions and models of oil supply disruptions; Section 4 examines the response of oil markets to recent supply disruptions; Section 5 examines the incentives and scope for strategic behaviour; Section 6 considers the implications of our analysis for the design of policy responses to oil supply disruptions; Appendix A describes the background to the four recent oil supply disruptions; Appendix B discusses the relationship between spot and futures prices for a storable commodity; and Appendix C is the bibliography

  9. Le pétrole et son prix : Le problème des échanges Oil and Its Cost. the Exchange Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desprairies P.

    2006-11-01

    States and Soudi Arabia in solving the problem overshadows oil other effects. The hikes are far from having been absorbed by consuming countries, and their inflationary pressure is already considerable. Rich consuming countries can do nothing else but embark on diversification power-producing programs, but the situation in non-producing Third-World countries is in danger of becoming drastic.

  10. Influence of oil and mineral characteristics on oil-mineral interaction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wood, P.A.; Lunel, T.; Daniel, F.; Swannell, R.; Lee, K.; Stoffyn-Egli, P.

    1998-01-01

    A laboratory study was conducted to simulate the process of oil-mineral interaction in seawater. Thirteen different crudes, emulsions and oil products were used in the study. The objective was to improve the fundamental understanding of the characteristics of oils and minerals that influence the process. The findings of an initial phase of studies based on the swirling flask and marine simulation procedures were also described. Oil content associated with flocs to oil and mineral characteristics were discussed. Emulsions were prepared at 10 degrees C by vigorously mixing the oil with excess artificial seawater in a Kilner jar using a high shear homogenizer. Topped oils were prepared by distillation to 250 degrees C. The biodegraded oil was prepared from the topped crude oil. Biodegradation was achieved over a 28 day period using natural seawater and naturally occurring hydrocarbon degraders. The relationships between oil concentration, oil density and mineral exchange capacity were determined. The study showed that greater oil concentrations in the water column could be expected with (1) the presence of mineral fines, (2) minerals with greater cation exchange rates, (3) minerals with finer sizes, and (4) oils of lower viscosity and density. It was determined that in coastal waters the viscosity of the oil/emulsion will likely be the main factor affecting oil-mineral interactions. The viscosity limit for allowing oil fines interaction is likely to be dependent on the energy in the coastal zone affected by the oil pollution. 18 refs., 5 tabs., 13 figs

  11. The oil market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Amic, E.; Lautard, P.

    1999-01-01

    This chapter examines the structure of the oil industry and the impacts of the oil markets on the hedging strategies of the energy consumers, the oil company, and the energy derivatives' provider. An introduction to market perspectives is presented, and the hedging operations in the jet fuel market in the airline sector are discussed. Trading and risk management within an oil company, the derivatives provider, trading derivatives in a multi-dimensional world, locational risks, and the modelling of term structure and the role of storage are considered. Industrial spreads and the role of refining, future market developments and market strategies for crude oil and oil products, and marketing packages and market risk are addressed

  12. European Union and oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paillard, Christophe Alexandre

    2004-01-01

    In a context of oil price increase, problems about a Russian oil company (Loukos), and uncertainties in the Middle-East, the possibility of a new oil shock is a threat for Europe, and raises the issue of a true European energy policy which would encompass, not only grid development, environmental issues or market regulation issues, but also strategic issues related to energy supply security. This article proposes an overview of the European policy: first steps for a future European energy and oil policy in the green paper of the European Commission published in November 2000, issues of pollution and safety for hydrocarbon maritime transport. The article then examines the possibility of a third oil shock due to a crisis in the Middle East, and discusses whether European must have strategic stocks to face an outage of oil supplies

  13. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leigh, D.G.

    1976-01-01

    The arrangement described relates particularly to heat exchangers for use in fast reactor power plants, in which heat is extracted from the reactor core by primary liquid metal coolant and is then transferred to secondary liquid metal coolant by means of intermediate heat exchangers. One of the main requirements of such a system, if used in a pool type fast reactor, is that the pressure drop on the primary coolant side must be kept to a minimum consistent with the maintenance of a limited dynamic head in the pool vessel. The intermediate heat exchanger must also be compact enough to be accommodated in the reactor vessel, and the heat exchanger tubes must be available for inspection and the detection and plugging of leaks. If, however, the heat exchanger is located outside the reactor vessel, as in the case of a loop system reactor, a higher pressure drop on the primary coolant side is acceptable, and space restriction is less severe. An object of the arrangement described is to provide a method of heat exchange and a heat exchanger to meet these problems. A further object is to provide a method that ensures that excessive temperature variations are not imposed on welded tube joints by sudden changes in the primary coolant flow path. Full constructional details are given. (U.K.)

  14. Materials towards carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility: hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles--now and in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirose, Katsuhiko

    2010-07-28

    In the past, material innovation has changed society through new material-induced technologies, adding a new value to society. In the present world, engineers and scientists are expected to invent new materials to solve the global problem of climate change. For the transport sector, the challenge for material engineers is to change the oil-based world into a sustainable world. After witnessing the recent high oil price and its adverse impact on the global economy, it is time to accelerate our efforts towards this change. Industries are tackling global energy issues such as oil and CO2, as well as local environmental problems, such as NO(x) and particulate matter. Hydrogen is the most promising candidate to provide carbon-free, emission-free and oil-free mobility. As such, engineers are working very hard to bring this technology into the real society. This paper describes recent progress of vehicle technologies, as well as hydrogen-storage technologies to extend the cruise range and ensure the easiness of refuelling and requesting material scientists to collaborate with industry to fight against global warming.

  15. The oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alba, P.

    2000-01-01

    Statistical analysis cannot, alone, provide an oil price forecast. So, one needs to understand the fundamental phenomena which control the past trends since the end of world war II After a first period during which oil, thanks to its abundance, was able to increase its market share at the expense of other energies, the first oil shock reflects the rarefaction of oil resource with the tilting of the US production curve from growth to decline. Since then, the new situation is that of a ''cohabitation'' between oil and the other energies with the oil price, extremely volatile, reflecting the trial and error adjustment of the market share left to the other energies. Such a context may explain the recent oil price surge but the analogy between the US oil situation at the time of the first shock and that existing today for the world outside Middle East suggest another possibility, that of a structural change with higher future oil prices. The authors examine these two possibilities, think that the oil price will reflect both as long as one or the other will not become proven, and conclude with a series of political recommendations. (authors)

  16. [Imperial Oil's Cold Lake oil sands operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dingle, H. B.

    1999-01-01

    Imperial Oil Limited's Cold Lake oil sands resources, production and operations in Alberta are discussed. Cold Lake is the company's largest single asset and its largest source of crude oil production. In 1998, Cold Lake accounted for just under half of Imperial's total liquid production, averaging more than 135,000 barrels of bitumen a day. Despite the very difficult operating conditions experienced by the oil sands industry in 1998, Imperial Oil's Cold Lake operations generated a positive cash flow and earnings. Just as important, the near and long-term potential of Cold Lake property continues to be strong, even with the tough market conditions today and the foreseeable future. Proved reserves at the end of 1997 were 1.3 billions barrels, equal to about 24 years of current production, but even more important is Imperial's resource base in the Athabasca region, which represents 150 years of production at current rates. Although production forecasts for the near future are are revised downward because of production shut-in due to low prices, the company is confident of its long-term prospects mainly because of existing infrastructure, superior reservoir quality, 30 years worth of operating improvements and established bitumen-blend markets. Details of the company's future Cold Lake development plans are discussed. The need to continue technology development, which has been at the core of the industry's growth in the past and will continue to be the key to the future, are emphasized

  17. Global Trends and Development Prospects for Oil and the Oil Products Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Dorozhkina

    2006-03-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the important issue of the development of the global market of oil and oil products. It offers an overview of how this market was formed and its current status, classification, location and potential of countries in the oil and oil processing business. It analyzes the Ukrainian oil products market. The article discusses the shortcomings and strategic areas for the development of Ukraine’s oil transport system. It presents an optimum method for creating integration groups in order to develop the oil processing business in Ukraine for the future. The article considers the main trends and outlines development prospects for the global oil and oil products market.

  18. Exchange Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Environmental Information Exchange Network (EN) is an Internet-based system used by state, tribal and territorial partners to securely share environmental and health information with one another and EPA.

  19. Oil seed marketing prospects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ceroni, G.

    1992-01-01

    With its 100 million tonnes annual production, the American continent is by far the world's biggest producer of oil seed, followed by Asia - 52 million, and Europe - 27 million tonnes. The Italian and European Communities have the farming capacity to double their production, but international agreements currently prohibit such initiatives. After first providing a panorama of the world oil seed market, this paper discusses new reforms in European Communities internal agricultural policies which currently limit production. These reforms, intended to encourage the production of oil seed for use as an ecological automotive fuel alternative, call for an obligatory set-aside of 15% of producing farm-land in exchange for the compensatory removal of oil seed production limits

  20. Investing today in energy for tomorrow. U.S. civilian nuclear industry: high-level oversight. Oil prices: getting close to the psychological threshold. The future of biofuels in question

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2008-01-01

    This issue of Alternatives newsletter features 4 main articles dealing with: 1 - Investing today in energy for tomorrow: Whether to increase or to replace generating capacity, the amount of investment needed in energy infrastructure to meet rising demand has been identified, but many obstacles must be overcome before they become a reality. A status report and personal perspective from Pierre Gadonneix, CEO of EDF, in the 'Expert opinion' section. 2 - U.S. civilian nuclear industry - high-level oversight: The approaches are clearly different, but the licensing processes for nuclear reactor development and operation in France and the United States are both strictly regulated. Alternatives delves further. 3 - Oil prices - getting close to the psychological threshold: Are we going to stop using oil sooner rather than later if crude prices keep going up? European commodities expert Philippe Chalmin shares his opinion. 4 - The future of biofuels in question In many countries, biofuels are seen as an alternative to oil. Still, farmland is not expandable forever and the economics of biofuels deserve some scrutiny

  1. Oil sands supply outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunbar, R.

    2004-01-01

    In March 2004, The Canadian Energy Research Institute released a report on the expected future supply from Alberta's oil sands. The report indicates that the future for the already well-established oil sands industry is promising, particularly given the outlook for oil prices. The challenges facing the industry include higher industry supply costs and the need for innovative commercial and technological solutions to address the risks of irregularities and changes in crude oil prices. In 2003, the industry produced 874 thousand barrels per day of synthetic crude oil and unprocessed crude bitumen. This represents 35 per cent of Canada's total oil production. Current production capacity has increased to 1.0 million barrels per day (mbpd) due to new projects. This number may increase to 3.5 mbpd by 2017. Some new projects may be deferred due to the higher raw bitumen and synthetic crude oil supply costs. This presentation provided supply costs for a range of oil sands recovery technologies and production projections under various business scenarios. tabs., figs

  2. A Primer on Alberta’s Oil sands Royalties

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Dobson

    2015-12-01

    price is applied • Gross vs. net revenues and the application of royalties • How the price of oil and the exchange rate between Canadian and U.S. dollars impact royalties • The historical and forecast contribution of oil sands royalties to Alberta’s finances Needless to say, a primer like this should be required reading for policymakers. It should also be required reading, however, for any Albertan who cares about the long-term benefit of the oil sands to Alberta’s revenue, and our financial future as a province.

  3. Oil prices and long-run risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ready, Robert Clayton

    I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

  4. Deceased Slabs Drive Oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stein, H. J.; Hannah, J. L.

    2017-12-01

    The application of Re-Os isotope geochemistry to dating single oils is a nascent field [1,2]. Challenges include dissection of oils into asphaltene-maltene (ASPH-MALT) components in a way that preserves meaningful chronologic and source information. Significantly, oil-water mixing rapidly transfers Os to the oil, while Re exchange is sluggish [3]. The Os initial ratio of the oil is shifted in the direction of Os carried in the aqueous fluid, whereas the Re-Os isotopic age is preserved. We show that this phenomenon is operative in natural systems. Further, we show that deserpentinization of old oceanic slabs [4], may be linked to expulsion of Os-enriched waters into overlying sedimentary sections - a process that may be of fundamental importance for oil generation. This conclusion does not diminish the role of traditional organic-rich shales as source rocks for the hydrocarbon, but shows that external fluids are essential to petroleum generation. Moreover, the external fluids may be an important driver for expulsion and migration of oils. We have taken apart several petroleum systems from source rock, to residual oil, to tar mat development, to in situ live oil, through to produced oil. In many cases, a fluid with low 187Os/188Os - unlike that of normal basinal brines - provides a critical component to the oil-water mixture. Funding - CHRONOS project supported by Norwegian petroleum industry (Eni-Norge, Lundin, Aker BP) Acknowledgement - Christine Fichler [4], who first queried us on old slabs and oil, and stimulated ideas. [1] Georgiev, S.V., Stein, H.J., Hannah, J.L., Galimberti, R., Nali, M., Yang, G., and Zimmerman, A. (2016) Re-Os dating of maltenes and asphaltenes within single samples of crude oil: Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta 179: 53-75. [doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2016.01.016] [2] DiMarzio, J., Georgiev, S.V., Stein, H.J., and Hannah, J.L. (in press) Residency of rhenium and osmium in a heavy crude oil: Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta. [3] Hurtig, N.C., Georgiev, S

  5. Subordinated Levy Processes and Applications to Crude Oil Options

    OpenAIRE

    Noureddine Krichene

    2005-01-01

    One approach to oil markets is to treat oil as an asset, besides its role as a commodity. Speculative and nonspeculative activity by investors in the derivatives markets could be responsible for a sizable increase in oil prices. This paper recognizes both the consumption and investment aspects of crude oil and proposes Levy processes for modeling uncertainty and options pricing. Calibration to crude oil futures' options shows high volatility of oil futures prices, fat-tailed, and right-skewed...

  6. Commodity exchanges - Function and operation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Levin, R.A.

    1991-01-01

    The author discusses the potential impacts that a futures market may have on the international trade of uranium. The discussion first centers around the New York Mercantile Exchange. The following market aspects are discussed: long-term contracting; spot market; commoditization and pricing; and advantages, disadvantages, risks, and provisions of futures market contracts

  7. Nigeria's oil production and the need for increased producing capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Okoroji, C. E. I.

    1998-01-01

    After 40 years of commercial oil production, Nigeria's crude oil production is moving through difficult times. This transition period has been made more difficult because of recurring international economic recession, lack-luster crude prices, and slow oil demand growth and Government funding problems etc. Crude oil remains the most important export revenue earner in Nigeria, and more efforts are required to encourage higher output levels to support more foreign exchange generation. Nigeria's crude oil production at present stands at 2.2 million barrels per day (mbpd). This study, covers the period 1998-2005, during which oil production is forecast to grow to about 2.85 mbpd while potential for new discoveries could raise production to more than 3.0 mbpd. These projected rates could depend to a large extent on the rate and size of new discoveries. However, Nigeria's crude oil potential is being constrained by both lack of infrastructure and inadequate investment. The massive investment needed to raise the country's productive capacity will require foreign capital, yet the current fiscal environment leaves much to be desired. The purpose of this paper is to present a review of Nigeria's past, present and future oil production. To meet the projected production capacity very early in the next millennium, current estimates put the overall potential investment needed for an accelerated capacity-expansion drive in order to ensure that there is adequate cushion of crude potential at $19.7 billion during the next seven years. Furthermore, not more than $12.0 billion of this requirement can be generated from Nigeria's government cash flow

  8. Foreign Exchange Risk in International Transactions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentina-Olivia Balu

    2007-03-01

    In this article we will focus on forward and futures contracts for managing foreign exchange risk. A forward is a contract to buy or sell currency at an agreed upon exchange rate at a specific date in the future. Futures are similar to forwards except that they’re traded on exchanges which specify settlement dates. Also we make some recommendations related to the foreign exchange risk-management practices that are useful for companies involved in international trade and for financial institutions interested in providing hedging products to these companies.

  9. Oil Spills

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oil spills often happen because of accidents, when people make mistakes or equipment breaks down. Other causes include natural disasters or deliberate acts. Oil spills have major environmental and economic effects. Oil ...

  10. Heat exchanger restart evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, J.M.; Hirst, C.W.; Lentz, T.F.

    1992-01-01

    On December 24, 1991, the K-Reactor was in the shutdown mode with full AC process water flow and full cooling water flow. Safety rod testing was being performed as part of the power ascension testing program. The results of cooling water samples indicated tritium concentrations higher than allowable. Further sampling and testing confirmed a Process Water System to Cooling Water System leak in heat exchanger 4A (HX 4A). The heat exchanger was isolated and the plant shutdown. Heat exchanger 4A was removed from the plant and moved to C-Area prior to performing examinations and diagnostic testing. This included locating and identifying the leaking tube or tubes, eddy current examination of the leaking tube and a number of adjacent tubes, visually inspecting the leaking tube from both the inside as well as the area surrounding the identified tube. The leaking tube was removed and examined metallurgically to determine the failure mechanism. In addition ten other tubes that either exhibited eddy current indications or would represent a baseline condition were removed from heat exchanger 4A for metallurgical examination. Additional analysis and review of heat exchanger leakage history was performed to determine if there are any patterns which can be used for predictive purposes. Compensatory actions have been taken to improve the sensitivity and response time to any future events of this type. The results of these actions are summary herein

  11. Heat exchanger restart evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, J.M.; Hirst, C.W.; Lentz, T.F.

    1992-01-01

    On December 24, 1991, the K-Reactor was in the shutdown mode with full AC process water flow and full cooling water flow. Safety rod testing was being performed as part of the power ascension testing program. The results of cooling water samples indicated tritium concentrations higher than allowable. Further sampling and testing confirmed a Process Water System to Cooling Water System leak in heat exchanger 4A (HX 4A). The heat exchanger was isolated and the plant shutdown. Heat exchanger 4kA was removed from the plant and moved to C-Area prior to performing examinations and diagnostic testing. This included locating and identifying the leaking tube or tubes, eddy current examination of the leaking tube and a number of adjacent tubes, visually inspecting the leaking tube from both the inside as well as the area surrounding the failure mechanism. In addition ten other tubes that either exhibited eddy current indications or would represent a baseline condition were removed from heat exchanger 4A for metallurgical examination. Additional analysis and review of heat exchanger leakage history was performed to determine if there are any patterns which can be used for predictive purposes. Compensatory actions have been taken to improve the sensitivity and response time to any future events of this type. The results of these actions are summarized herein

  12. Heat exchanger restart evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morrison, J.M.; Hirst, C.W.; Lentz, T.F.

    1992-01-01

    On December 24, 1991, the K-Reactor was in the shutdown mode with full AC process water flow and full cooling water flow. Safety rod testing was being performed as part of the power ascension testing program. The results of cooling water samples indicated tritium concentrations higher than allowable. Further sampling and testing confirmed a Process Water System to Cooling Water System leak in heat exchanger 4A (HX 4A). The heat exchanger was isolated and the plant shutdown. Heat exchanger 4A was removed from the plant and moved to C-Area prior to performing examinations and diagnostic testing. This included locating and identifying the leaking tube or tubes, eddy current examination of the leaking tube and a number of adjacent tubes, visually inspecting the leaking tube from both the inside as well as the area surrounding the identified tube. The leaking tube was removed and examined metallurgically to determine the failure mechanism. In addition ten other tubes that either exhibited eddy current indications or would represent a baseline condition were removed from heat exchanger 4A for metallurgical examination. Additional analysis and review of heat exchanger leakage history was performed to determine if there are any patterns which can be used for predictive purposes. Compensatory actions have been taken to improve the sensitivity and response time to any future events of this type. The results of these actions are summarized

  13. CHANGES IN EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carmen SANDU (TODERASCU

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The experience of recentyears showsthat it hasa fundamentalroleformation mechanismof the exchange rateinmacroeconomic stabilization. Global economiccrises, oil shockshave shownthe difficultyoffloatingsustainabilitybyparticipants in the system. EuropeanMonetary System, focused onconcertedfloatingcurrenciestoECU, was formedunder the conditionsin which somecountries have adoptedregional monetaryarrangements(EU countries, with suchbasescurrencyregimeshybridthat combinesspecific mechanismsto those offixedratefree floating. This paperaims to demonstratethe important role thatithasthe choice ofexchange rateregimeas abasic elementin thefoundationofmacroeconomic stabilizationinstruments. Consideredan expression of thestateof the domestic economyandinternationalcompetitiveness, the exchange rate is determined bya complex set ofexternal factorsorinternalstabilityisa prerequisite forthe crisis.

  14. Hydrogen exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Foged; Rand, Kasper Dyrberg

    2016-01-01

    Hydrogen exchange (HX) monitored by mass spectrometry (MS) is a powerful analytical method for investigation of protein conformation and dynamics. HX-MS monitors isotopic exchange of hydrogen in protein backbone amides and thus serves as a sensitive method for probing protein conformation...... and dynamics along the entire protein backbone. This chapter describes the exchange of backbone amide hydrogen which is highly quenchable as it is strongly dependent on the pH and temperature. The HX rates of backbone amide hydrogen are sensitive and very useful probes of protein conformation......, as they are distributed along the polypeptide backbone and form the fundamental hydrogen-bonding networks of basic secondary structure. The effect of pressure on HX in unstructured polypeptides (poly-dl-lysine and oxidatively unfolded ribonuclease A) and native folded proteins (lysozyme and ribonuclease A) was evaluated...

  15. Future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    La Croce, A.

    1991-01-01

    According to George Woodwell, founder of the Woods Hole Research Center, due the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and accelerated respiration, the net annual increase of carbon, in the form of carbon dioxide, to the 750 billion tonnes already present in the earth's atmosphere, is in the order of 3 to 5 billion tonnes. Around the world, scientists, investigating the probable effects of this increase on the earth's future climate, are now formulating coupled air and ocean current models which take account of water temperature and salinity dependent carbon dioxide exchange mechanisms acting between the atmosphere and deep layers of ocean waters

  16. Performance and emission study of preheated Jatropha oil on medium capacity diesel engine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chauhan, Bhupendra Singh; Du Jun, Yong; Lee, Kum Bae [Division of Automobile and Mechanical Engineering, Kongju National University (Korea); Kumar, Naveen [Department of Mechanical Engineering, Delhi Technological University, Bawana Road, Delhi 42 (India)

    2010-06-15

    Diesel engines have proved their utility in transport, agriculture and power sector. Environmental norms and scared fossil fuel have attracted the attention to switch the energy demand to alternative energy source. Oil derived from Jatropha curcas plant has been considered as a sustainable substitute to diesel fuel. However, use of straight vegetable oil has encountered problem due to its high viscosity. The aim of present work is to reduce the viscosity of oil by heating from exhaust gases before fed to the engine, the study of effects of FIT (fuel inlet temperature) on engine performance and emissions using a dual fuel engine test rig with an appropriately designed shell and tube heat exchanger (with exhaust bypass arrangement). Heat exchanger was operated in such a way that it could give desired FIT. Results show that BTE (brake thermal efficiency) of engine was lower and BSEC (brake specific energy consumption) was higher when the engine was fueled with Jatropha oil as compared to diesel fuel. Increase in fuel inlet temperature resulted in increase of BTE and reduction in BSEC. Emissions of NO{sub x} from Jatropha oil during the experimental range were lower than diesel fuel and it increases with increase in FIT. CO (carbon monoxide), HC (hydrocarbon), CO{sub 2} (carbon dioxide) emissions from Jatropha oil were found higher than diesel fuel. However, with increase in FIT, a downward trend was observed. Thus, by using heat exchanger preheated Jatropha oil can be a good substitute fuel for diesel engine in the near future. Optimal fuel inlet temperature was found to be 80 C considering the BTE, BSEC and gaseous emissions. (author)

  17. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drury, C.R.

    1988-01-01

    A heat exchanger having primary and secondary conduits in heat-exchanging relationship is described comprising: at least one serpentine tube having parallel sections connected by reverse bends, the serpentine tube constituting one of the conduits; a group of open-ended tubes disposed adjacent to the parallel sections, the open-ended tubes constituting the other of the conduits, and forming a continuous mass of contacting tubes extending between and surrounding the serpentine tube sections; and means securing the mass of tubes together to form a predetermined cross-section of the entirety of the mass of open-ended tubes and tube sections

  18. Cleaning Schedule Operations in Heat Exchanger Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huda Hairul

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Heat exchanger networks have been known to be the essential parts in the chemical industries. Unfortunately, since the performance of heat exchanger can be decreasing in transferring the heat from hot stream into cold stream due to fouling, then cleaning the heat exchanger is needed to restore its initial performance periodically. A process of heating crude oil in a refinery plant was used as a case study. As many as eleven heat exchangers were used to heat crude oil before it was heated by a furnace to the temperature required to the crude unit distillation column. The purpose of this study is to determine the cleaning schedule of heat exchanger on the heat exchanger networks due to the decrease of the overall heat transfer coefficient by various percentage of the design value. A close study on the process of heat exchanger cleaning schedule in heat exchanger networks using the method of decreasing overall heat transfer coefficient as target. The result showed that the higher the fouling value the more often the heat exchanger is cleaned because the overall heat transfer coefficient decreases quickly.

  19. Spillover effects in energy futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, S.X.; Tamvakis, M.N.

    2001-01-01

    Price discovery in crude oil and refined oil products has been extensively undertaken in organised futures markets for over a decade now. There are two dominant such markets today: the first one in the New York Mercantile Exchange; and the second in London's International Petroleum Exchange. With the demise of OPEC as the leading price setter for crude and products, NYMEX light sweet crude and Brent crude have usurped the role of benchmark grades for price setting. To date considerable work has been done to scrutinise the degree to which these two markets price efficiently, but little with regard to the way the two markets interact. Participants in these markets move with relative ease from one market to the other and usually take positions in both of them. It is of interest, therefore, to investigate the information transmission mechanism by looking at spillover effects and, perhaps, identify which market is the true price leader. This paper is a first attempt to look at such a problem in the energy market, although similar studies have been done on stock market indices. It is found that substantial spillover effects do exist when both markets are trading simultaneously, although IPE morning prices seem to be considerably affected by the close of the previous day on NYMEX

  20. Global oil company profiles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    Global Oil Company Profiles provides a comprehensive review of 50 of the top oil companies in the world. Each chapter is devoted to an individual company, providing an invaluable insight into the organisation, its structure and operations. Using the most recent data available, the report offers an up-to-date analysis of performance and future direction, as well as a unique benchmarking system for each company profiled. (author)

  1. Oil is killing Africa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paris, H.

    2007-09-01

    Sub-Saharan Africa, with its mining and petroleum resources, is still the object of covetous desires from developed countries. The Gulf of Guinea is a promising area and probably the future battlefield of the 21. century. The fighters of this war are the African people and the big powers, the USA and China at the head, who call upon mercenaries to get their share of this fabulous treasure. Oil was a chance for Africa, but now oil is killing it

  2. Oil price shocks and policy implications the emergence of U.S. tight oil production: a case study

    OpenAIRE

    Voth, Jeffrey Michael

    2015-01-01

    How have shocks to supply and demand affected global oil prices; and what are key policy implications following the resurgence of oil production in the United States? Highlights: − The recent collapse in global oil prices was dominated by oversupply. − The future of tight oil in the United States is vulnerable to obstacles beyond oil prices. − Opinions on tight oil from the Top 25 think tank organizations are considered. Global oil prices have fallen more than fifty percent since ...

  3. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolowodiuk, Walter

    1976-01-06

    A heat exchanger of the straight tube type in which different rates of thermal expansion between the straight tubes and the supply pipes furnishing fluid to those tubes do not result in tube failures. The supply pipes each contain a section which is of helical configuration.

  4. Heat exchangers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1975-01-01

    The tubes of a heat exchanger tube bank have a portion thereof formed in the shape of a helix, of effective radius equal to the tube radius and the space between two adjacent tubes, to tangentially contact the straight sections of the tubes immediately adjacent thereto and thereby provide support, maintain the spacing and account for differential thermal expansion thereof

  5. Exchange Options

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jamshidian, F.

    2007-01-01

    The contract is described and market examples given. Essential theoretical developments are introduced and cited chronologically. The principles and techniques of hedging and unique pricing are illustrated for the two simplest nontrivial examples: the classical Black-Scholes/Merton/Margrabe exchange

  6. Exchange rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mills, Bev

    2003-09-01

    IN MAY this year, I was lucky enough to go to Larissa in northern Greece as part of Hope Exchange 2003, an annual study tour organised by the European Union's hospital committee and administered by the Institute of Healthcare Management (IHM).

  7. Heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daman, Ernest L.; McCallister, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    A heat exchanger is provided having first and second fluid chambers for passing primary and secondary fluids. The chambers are spaced apart and have heat pipes extending from inside one chamber to inside the other chamber. A third chamber is provided for passing a purge fluid, and the heat pipe portion between the first and second chambers lies within the third chamber.

  8. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolowodiuk, W.

    1976-01-01

    A heat exchanger of the straight tube type is described in which different rates of thermal expansion between the straight tubes and the supply pipes furnishing fluid to those tubes do not result in tube failures. The supply pipes each contain a section which is of helical configuration

  9. Modelling oil exploration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Padilla, V.R.

    1992-01-01

    The analysis of oil exploration models in this paper is developed in four parts. The way in which exploration has been dealt with in oil supply models is first described. Five recent models are then looked at, paying particular attention to the explanatory variables used when modelling exploration activities. This is followed by a discussion of the factors which have been shown by several empirical studies to determine exploration in less developed countries. Finally, the interdependence between institutional factors, oil prices and exploration effort is analysed with a view to drawing conclusions for modelling in the future. (UK)

  10. Challenge - oil crisis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vogler, O.

    1981-01-01

    After a short survey on recent developments of energy supply the risks of future energy supply and its effects are discussed. The parameters of dependence on oil-producing countries are studied and an evaluation is given on the measures which have to be taken by the Western industrialized countries in response to the dependence on oil. Further subjects are: mechanism of oil distribution in case of crisis, long-term cooperation of producer countries, measures on international level in the USA and Japan, and the energy-importing countries in the conflict area between OPEC- and industrialized countries. (UA) [de

  11. Price models for oil derivates in Slovenia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nemac, F.; Saver, A.

    1995-01-01

    In Slovenia, a law is currently applied according to which any change in the price of oil derivatives is subject to the Governmental approval. Following the target of getting closer to the European Union, the necessity has arisen of finding ways for the introduction of liberalization or automated approach to price modifications depending on oscillations of oil derivative prices on the world market and the rate of exchange of the American dollar. It is for this reason that at the Agency for Energy Restructuring we made a study for the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Development regarding this issue. We analysed the possible models for the formation of oil derivative prices for Slovenia. Based on the assessment of experiences of primarily the west European countries, we proposed three models for the price formation for Slovenia. In future, it is expected that the Government of the Republic of Slovenia will make a selection of one of the proposed models to be followed by enforcement of price liberalization. The paper presents two representative models for price formation as used in Austria and Portugal. In the continuation the authors analyse the application of three models that they find suitable for the use in Slovenia. (author)

  12. Japan FRI research activities on oil tank/spilled oil fire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koseki, Hiroshi

    1992-01-01

    Introduction of research activities on oil tank/spilled oil fire at FRI, Japan is done. FRI has a long history of studying oil tank and spilled oil fires. Many large oil fire tests were done. The purpose of these studies is different with research of response of oil spill, but the accumulation of this knowledge is useful for conducting elimination of spilled oil on the sea with burning. Therefore to do collaboration with fire science research groups, such as FRI is useful for future activities for response to oil spills

  13. The history and future of thermal sprayed galvanically active metallic anticorrosion coatings used on pipelines and steel structures in the oil and gas industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rodijnen, Fred van [Sulzer Metco, Duisburg (Germany)

    2008-07-01

    Since its invention by M. U. Schoop in the beginning of the 20th century, thermal spray has been used for corrosion protection applications in naval, on-shore, submerged and atmospheric environments. Thermally sprayed coatings of zinc, zinc alloys, aluminum and aluminum alloys are currently the most popular materials used for active corrosion protection of steel and concrete, which can be applied using either of the widely known thermal spray processes of combustion wire or electric arc wire. In the oil and gas exploration and production industry, corrosion protection applications using these technologies have evolved since the early sixties. Thermal spray technology has successfully been used to protect steel-based materials from corrosion in many different fields of application like platforms and pipelines. The most used material in the oil and gas industry is TSA (Thermally Sprayed Aluminum) coating. TSA coatings, with a lifetime of 25 to 30 years, require no maintenance except for cosmetic reasons when painted. The surface temperature of a TSA can go as high as 480 deg C. Although TS (Thermal Spray) is an older process, the number of applications and the number of m{sup 2} it is applied to is still increasing resulting from its maintenance-free and reliable active corrosion-protection features. (author)

  14. Oil market prices 1989/1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, G.

    1991-01-01

    There are many oil markets. Oil Market Prices lists the markets, provides statistics on prices and the volumes of trade, analyses the price structures in the markets and provides supplementary information on ocean freight rates and oil refining margins. Oil Market Prices will serve as a permanent record of crude oil prices including those quoted on the futures and forward markets, the many wholesale prices for refined oil products, prices consumers pay and the average prices received by the oil companies. In all instances the sources of the statistics are given together with comprehensive listing of alternative sources. (Author)

  15. Betting exchanges : the future of sports betting?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koning, Ruud H.; Velzen, B. van

    Sports betting and sports have always been strongly connected. Traditionally, these betting markets have been cleared by bookmakers, who accept bets on certain events. These bookmakers carry the risk of paying the amount wagered if the event occurs. Recently, a new type of betting market has

  16. Oil shale technology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, S.

    1991-01-01

    Oil shale is undoubtedly an excellent energy source that has great abundance and world-wide distribution. Oil shale industries have seen ups and downs over more than 100 years, depending on the availability and price of conventional petroleum crudes. Market forces as well as environmental factors will greatly affect the interest in development of oil shale. Besides competing with conventional crude oil and natural gas, shale oil will have to compete favorably with coal-derived fuels for similar markets. Crude shale oil is obtained from oil shale by a relatively simple process called retorting. However, the process economics are greatly affected by the thermal efficiencies, the richness of shale, the mass transfer effectiveness, the conversion efficiency, the design of retort, the environmental post-treatment, etc. A great many process ideas and patents related to the oil shale pyrolysis have been developed; however, relatively few field and engineering data have been published. Due to the vast heterogeneity of oil shale and to the complexities of physicochemical process mechanisms, scientific or technological generalization of oil shale retorting is difficult to achieve. Dwindling supplied of worldwide petroleum reserves, as well as the unprecedented appetite of mankind for clean liquid fuel, has made the public concern for future energy market grow rapidly. the clean coal technology and the alternate fuel technology are currently of great significance not only to policy makers, but also to process and chemical researchers. In this book, efforts have been made to make a comprehensive text for the science and technology of oil shale utilization. Therefore, subjects dealing with the terminological definitions, geology and petrology, chemistry, characterization, process engineering, mathematical modeling, chemical reaction engineering, experimental methods, and statistical experimental design, etc. are covered in detail

  17. Estimation of mean-reverting oil prices: a laboratory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerksund, P.; Stensland, G.

    1993-12-01

    Many economic decision support tools developed for the oil industry are based on the future oil price dynamics being represented by some specified stochastic process. To meet the demand for necessary data, much effort is allocated to parameter estimation based on historical oil price time series. The approach in this paper is to implement a complex future oil market model, and to condense the information from the model to parameter estimates for the future oil price. In particular, we use the Lensberg and Rasmussen stochastic dynamic oil market model to generate a large set of possible future oil price paths. Given the hypothesis that the future oil price is generated by a mean-reverting Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, we obtain parameter estimates by a maximum likelihood procedure. We find a substantial degree of mean-reversion in the future oil price, which in some of our decision examples leads to an almost negligible value of flexibility. 12 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs

  18. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  19. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku

    2009-01-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km 2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km 2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km 2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km 2 ) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km 2 ), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km 2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  20. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaveau, David L. A.; Wich, Serge; Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel; Kanninen, Markku; Leader-Williams, Nigel

    2009-09-01

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km2 that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km2 protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km2 of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km2) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km2), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km2 of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an upland PA may not significantly reduce

  1. The future of forests and orangutans (Pongo abelii) in Sumatra: predicting impacts of oil palm plantations, road construction, and mechanisms for reducing carbon emissions from deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gaveau, David L A; Leader-Williams, Nigel [Durrell Institute of Conservation and Ecology, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent CT2 7NR (United Kingdom); Wich, Serge [Great Apes Trust of Iowa, 4200 SE 44th Avenue, Des Moines, IA 50320 (United States); Epting, Justin; Juhn, Daniel [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA 22202 (United States); Kanninen, Markku, E-mail: dgaveau@yahoo.co.u, E-mail: swich@greatapetrust.or, E-mail: justep22@myfastmail.co, E-mail: d.juhn@conservation.or, E-mail: m.kanninen@cgiar.or, E-mail: n.leader-williams@kent.ac.u [Center for International Forestry Research, Jalan CIFOR, Situ Gede, Sidang Barang, Bogor, West Java (Indonesia)

    2009-09-15

    Payments for reduced carbon emissions from deforestation (RED) are now attracting attention as a way to halt tropical deforestation. Northern Sumatra comprises an area of 65 000 km{sup 2} that is both the site of Indonesia's first planned RED initiative, and the stronghold of 92% of remaining Sumatran orangutans. Under current plans, this RED initiative will be implemented in a defined geographic area, essentially a newly established, 7500 km{sup 2} protected area (PA) comprising mostly upland forest, where guards will be recruited to enforce forest protection. Meanwhile, new roads are currently under construction, while companies are converting lowland forests into oil palm plantations. This case study predicts the effectiveness of RED in reducing deforestation and conserving orangutans for two distinct scenarios: the current plan of implementing RED within the specific boundary of a new upland PA, and an alternative scenario of implementing RED across landscapes outside PAs. Our satellite-based spatially explicit deforestation model predicts that 1313 km{sup 2} of forest would be saved from deforestation by 2030, while forest cover present in 2006 would shrink by 22% (7913 km{sup 2}) across landscapes outside PAs if RED were only to be implemented in the upland PA. Meanwhile, orangutan habitat would reduce by 16% (1137 km{sup 2}), resulting in the conservative loss of 1384 orangutans, or 25% of the current total population with or without RED intervention. By contrast, an estimated 7824 km{sup 2} of forest could be saved from deforestation, with maximum benefit for orangutan conservation, if RED were to be implemented across all remaining forest landscapes outside PAs. Here, RED payments would compensate land users for their opportunity costs in not converting unprotected forests into oil palm, while the construction of new roads to service the marketing of oil palm would be halted. Our predictions suggest that Indonesia's first RED initiative in an

  2. Microbial enhancement of oil recovery: Recent advances. Proceedings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Premuzic, E.T.; Woodhead, A.D.; Vivirito, K.J. [eds.

    1992-12-31

    During recent years, systematic, scientific, and engineering effort by researchers in the United States and abroad, has established the scientific basis for Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery (MEOR) technology. The successful application of MEOR technology as an oil recovery process is a goal of the Department of Energy (DOE). Research efforts involving aspects of MEOR in the microbiological, biochemical, and engineering fields led DOE to sponsor an International Conference at Brookhaven National Laboratory in 1992, to facilitate the exchange of information and a discussion of ideas for the future research emphasis. At this, the Fourth International MEOR Conference, where international attendees from 12 countries presented a total of 35 papers, participants saw an equal distribution between ``research`` and ``field applications.`` In addition, several modeling and ``state-of-the-art`` presentations summed up the present status of MEOR science and engineering. Individual papers in this proceedings have been process separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  3. Corrosion problems and solutions in oil refining and petrochemical industry

    CERN Document Server

    Groysman, Alec

    2017-01-01

    This book addresses corrosion problems and their solutions at facilities in the oil refining and petrochemical industry, including cooling water and boiler feed water units. Further, it describes and analyzes corrosion control actions, corrosion monitoring, and corrosion management. Corrosion problems are a perennial issue in the oil refining and petrochemical industry, as they lead to a deterioration of the functional properties of metallic equipment and harm the environment – both of which need to be protected for the sake of current and future generations. Accordingly, this book examines and analyzes typical and atypical corrosion failure cases and their prevention at refineries and petrochemical facilities, including problems with: pipelines, tanks, furnaces, distillation columns, absorbers, heat exchangers, and pumps. In addition, it describes naphthenic acid corrosion, stress corrosion cracking, hydrogen damages, sulfidic corrosion, microbiologically induced corrosion, erosion-corrosion, and corrosion...

  4. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  5. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1991-09-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--90 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  6. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence

  7. International Oil Supplies and Demands

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1992-04-01

    The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world's dependence upon Middle Eastern oil. Proprietors of eleven economic models of the world oil market used their respective models to simulate a dozen scenarios using standardized assumptions. From its inception, the study was not designed to focus on the short-run impacts of disruptions on oil markets. Nor did the working group attempt to provide a forecast or just a single view of the likely future path for oil prices. The model results guided the group's thinking about many important longer-run market relationships and helped to identify differences of opinion about future oil supplies, demands, and dependence.

  8. Public outcry: madness masks method on Manhattan's energy exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Faulkner, P.

    2000-01-01

    Operation of the NYMEX, a division of the New York Mercantile Exchange that deals almost exclusively in crude oil, heating oil, natural gas, electricity, propane, platinum and palladium trading, is described. The NYMEX where the big forces affecting the market such as OPEC, rising demands, limited oil production and tanker capacity, lagging natural gas supplies, pipeline bottlenecks, and cold snaps are translated into economic values, is considered by insiders as the best guarantee against under- or over-pricing, despite the appearance of bedlam and complete chaos. They consider commodity trading a service rather than an added risk in the energy industry. i. e. the NYMEX is seen as a model of order for transactions on a huge scale, aimed at establishing the value, at any given time under any given circumstances, of standardized energy commodities and sales-volume contracts at agreed points. NYMEX's chief strength is that it provides a completely visible and continuous measurement of value. It is also a factory, generating multiple financial instruments for hedging against risks of unfavorable price movements in the future. The anonymity of the buyers and sellers directing the traders is considered a crucial element of the system, ensuring that the market is about the commodity, not about who is producing or using it. Hedging is a key service wherein sellers (mostly oil companies) sell futures contracts to lock in prices to protect their sources of revenue, should market values fall. Buyers make the deals because they believe that prices will go the other way. Industry insiders maintain that hedgers do not try to make a killing on the market. That is the realm of speculators who are most often high income amateurs. By taking the opposite sides of bids or offers, they provide the market with liquidity

  9. Possible sources of genetic resistance in oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq.) to basal stem rot caused by Ganoderma boninense--prospects for future breeding.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durand-Gasselin, T; Asmady, H; Flori, A; Jacquemard, J C; Hayun, Z; Breton, F; de Franqueville, H

    2005-01-01

    Oil palm estates in southeast Asia suffer from substantial losses due to basal stem rot caused by Ganoderma boninense. Field observations have been carried out in North Sumatra, Indonesia, on a series of planting materials of known origin. Differences in susceptibility to the disease have been detected within the two Elaeis species, guineensis and oleifera. Within Elaeis guineensis, material of Deli origin is highly susceptible compared to material of African origin. It is also possible to detect differences in reaction between parents and between crosses within a given origin. The variability of resistance to basal stem rot within the same cross is also illustrated by the diverse responses of clones derived from palms of the same origin. The prospects opened up by these results are discussed, and the importance of performing an early selection test is highlighted.

  10. Ion exchange equilibrium constants

    CERN Document Server

    Marcus, Y

    2013-01-01

    Ion Exchange Equilibrium Constants focuses on the test-compilation of equilibrium constants for ion exchange reactions. The book first underscores the scope of the compilation, equilibrium constants, symbols used, and arrangement of the table. The manuscript then presents the table of equilibrium constants, including polystyrene sulfonate cation exchanger, polyacrylate cation exchanger, polymethacrylate cation exchanger, polysterene phosphate cation exchanger, and zirconium phosphate cation exchanger. The text highlights zirconium oxide anion exchanger, zeolite type 13Y cation exchanger, and

  11. Heat exchanger

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.C.

    1975-01-01

    A heat exchanger such as forms, for example, part of a power steam boiler is made up of a number of tubes that may be arranged in many different ways, and it is necessary that the tubes be properly supported. The means by which the tubes are secured must be as simple as possible so as to facilitate construction and must be able to continue to function effectively under the varying operating conditions to which the heat exchanger is subject. The arrangement described is designed to meet these requirements, in an improved way. The tubes are secured to a member extending past several tubes and abutment means are provided. At least some of the abutment means comprise two abutment pieces and a wedge secured to the supporting member, that acts on these pieces to maintain the engagement. (U.K.)

  12. Oil quenched malleable iron, the strength of an old material in a “green cast” development and a new future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cornelis J. van Ettinger

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Malleable iron lost the interest and the development stopped in the turbulent seventies of tremendous developments of new technologies. The personal computer, emission spectrometer, thermal analysis, cold-box core system and automatic vertical moulding were introduced into the foundry industry. Experience shows that these new technologies do not always match up with malleable iron. Solidification and mould filling simulation programs are not always capable to handle a low carbon equivalent iron like malleable iron. Recent developments show however by using these new technologies and combined with practical experience, it is possible to increase the casting yield of malleable iron to the same level as ductile iron. The mechanical properties, especially the yield strength of malleable iron according to the standard are equivalent to those of ductile iron, however the yield strength of oil quenched malleable iron is significantly higher than that of ductile iron. An extensive investigation is made between ductile iron, air quenched and oil quenched malleable irons based on the properties of more than 350 test bars produced under the same conditions. The results are compared with the existing international standards and discussed. Other properties like fatigue strength and response to surface treatments as induction hardening are also discussed. The costs of malleable iron are reviewed and compared with other ferro alloys. These recent developments in increasing the casting yield, the understanding of the strength, makes malleable iron competitive with ductile iron and cheaper than the first grade of ausferritic ductile iron, or steel qualities. It is possible to design lighter and save weight which is essential in the automotive industry. An example of “green cast” development for typical applications, used in automotive transmissions and engines are shown.

  13. 17 CFR 14.4 - Violation of Commodity Exchange Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Violation of Commodity Exchange Act. 14.4 Section 14.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION... Exchange Act. The Commission may deny, temporarily or permanently, the privilege of appearing or practicing...

  14. Heat exchangers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmidt, E L; Eisenmann, G; Hahne, E [Stuttgart Univ. (TH) (F.R. Germany). Inst. fuer Thermodynamik und Waermetechnik

    1976-04-01

    A survey is presented on publications on design, heat transfer, form factors, free convection, evaporation processes, cooling towers, condensation, annular gap, cross-flowed cylinders, axial flow through a bundle of tubes, roughnesses, convective heat transfer, loss of pressure, radiative heat transfer, finned surfaces, spiral heat exchangers, curved pipes, regeneraters, heat pipes, heat carriers, scaling, heat recovery systems, materials selection, strength calculation, control, instabilities, automation of circuits, operational problems and optimization.

  15. EnerFuture

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    EnerFuture offers short term energy demand forecasts for oil, gas, electricity and coal, in the 52 major energy countries in the world. Also included are the historical data series since 1997, extracted from the international ENERDATA Information System. It contents electricity consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture; oil consumption per sector: industry, transport, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from oil; gas consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from gas; coal consumption per sector: industry, residential, services, agriculture, electricity from coal. (A.L.B.)

  16. Future of petroleum

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Desprairies, P.

    1977-01-01

    This article deals with the future of oil. It is shown that it exists in sufficient quantities to cover needs until the end of the next century as regards applications for which it cannot easily be replaced, for example as a petrochemial basis. From this it is concluded that, in order to ensure an average growth rate of approximately 3 to 5%, nuclear power should be developed together with unconventional oil from very deep deposits offshore or on land, and synthetic oil development from the hydrogenation of coal should be accelerated without delay.

  17. Exchange of current BPA surplus power for future power from certain companies' share of WNP-3 to settle a dispute over construction delay. Record of decision. Volume II. Exhibits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-01-01

    This exchange is between BPA and Portland General Electric Company, Puget Sound Power and Light Company, and the Washington Water Power Company. Pacific Power and Light Company (Pacific) is not initially a party to the exchange. Pacific may at any time prior to January 1, 1994 elect on at least 12 months notice to enter the exchange provided that if BPA determines to resume full plant construction Pacific must elect or forego the option within 6 months after construction is resumed. If the plant is terminated at a time when the option has not been exercised, the option may not thereafter be exercised. If Pacific elects to make the exchange effective and the plant is later terminated prior to the effective data of the exchange, the exchange will become effective on the specified data, unless, prior to such data. Pacific notifies BPA that is rescinds such prior election

  18. Oil risk in oil stocks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scholtens, Bert; Wang, L

    2008-01-01

    We assess the oil price sensitivities and oil risk premiums of NYSE listed oil & gas firms' returns by using a two-step regression analysis under two different arbitrage pricing models. Thus, we apply the Fama and French (1992) factor returns in a study of oil stocks. In all, we find that the return

  19. Strategies for risk management using the paper markets [to minimize oil price risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Annesley, M.

    1993-01-01

    The severe price movement experienced within energy markets during the last few years have awakened significant interest in hedging, and other uses of the futures, options, forward and derivative markets, to minimise price risk. There are two basic strands of structure of the markets now available for risk mangement. The first of these is the Exchange markets (IPE, NYMEX, and SIMEX) providing various futures and options alternatives; the second is the forward cargo contracts. The liquidity in these forward cargo markets, is variable but the contracts do provide some hedging and price risk management opportunities, which supplement and complement the Exchange markets, particularly for the professional risk managers and market makers. A range of forward markets is potentially available serving all regions. The more recent development of widely used derivative contracts, notably the swaps and price triggering in physical sale contracts, gives further alternatives from which interested companies may choose. The derivative market, although by definition off-exchange' may use either the Exchanges, forward markets or various oil publications for establishing their prices. Therefore, Exchange futures and options, forward markets and either standard or individually tailored derivatives all provide possible solutions to the risk management needs of coping with today's volatile prices. (author)

  20. Valuation of international oil- and gas companies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osmundsen, Petter; Mohn, Klaus; Espedal, Harald; Loevaas, Kjell

    2002-01-01

    In Norway, stock exchange quotation of Statoil has led to increased interest in valuation of oil companies. This article goes through the theory of corporate valuation. Then it compares the theory with practice, where valuation largely is built on accounts-based indicators. Taking the oil companies as a case, the article describes and evaluates the valuation methods used by analysts and investment banks

  1. Metal working oils. Cutting oils, rolling oils, quenching oils, rust preventive oils; Kinzoku kakoyu. Sessakuyu, atsuenyu, yakiireyu, boseiyu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koyama, S. [Idemitsu Kosan Co. Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    1996-04-01

    With the demand against complicating working techniques for a background, foundations of the consideration for each of the lubricants in future are outlined. 1. Cutting oils: From the standpoint of speeding up and fireproofing, share of water-soluble type has come up to 30-40%. In this type, emulsifying dispersants and preservatives are combined. 2. Rolling oils: According to thinning of the standard thickness of steel plates, pressure of contacting surfaces has come up to 300 kg/mm{sup 2}(max.) and slip speed has increased too. In stainless steel plates, in order to get rid of the heat-streak (baking streak originated from wearing-out of oil film) shifting from neat oil to emulsion type is required. 3. Quenching oils: Following two systems are recent tendencies, the mineral oil system having excellent thermostability or the water system containing polyalkylneglycol etc., but the latter is expected from the viewpoint of fireproofing. 4. Rust preventive oils: As this oils do not aim at the rust prevention for long term, degreasing property is required. 20 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  2. Oil companies and human rights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chandler, Geoffrey

    1997-01-01

    This article highlights the need for oil companies in the future to take into account human rights in corporate decision making. The influence oil companies can bring to bear on government violating human rights, excuses for not voicing condemnation of abuses, and the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights are discussed. (UK)

  3. Development of oil for lead shielded glass windows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antony, M.P.; Subramaniam, S.; Vasudeva Rao, P.R.

    1997-01-01

    Oil filled glass windows are used in Hot Cells for viewing purposes. Absorption of moisture and radiation can cause degradation of the oil and the degradation products will make the oil cloudy. Hence, it is necessary to replace the oil at least once in two years. The requirements of the oil were met so far by importing it from USA, Germany and France. An attempt has been made to make the oil indigenously with a view to replenish the oil in future, and also as an alternate source for oil import. The details of the development of a radiation resistant oil, its specifications and the test procedures are discussed in this report. (author)

  4. Synthetic gasoline and diesel oil produced by Fischer-Tropsch Technology. A possibility for the future? IEA/AMF annex XXXI

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rehnlund, B., (Atrax Energy AB, Goeteborg (SE)); Blinge, M., (The Swedish Transport Research Institute, TFK (SE)); Schramm, J.; Larsen, Ulrik, (Technical Univ. of Denmark, DTU, Kgs. Lyngby (DK))

    2007-03-15

    This report is the result of an annex (annex XXXI, Fischer-Tropsch Fuels) initiated by the International Energy Agency's Implementing Agreement on Advanced Motor Fuels. The annex has been managed by Atrax Energi AB, Bjorn Rehnlund, acting as the operating agent of the annex. The work in the annex has been carried out in co-operation with the Swedish Transportation Research Institute - TFK, Magnus Blinge and the Technical University of Denmark - DTU, Jesper Schramm and Ulrik Larsen. In this report the possibilities to produce synthetic gasoline and synthetic diesel oil from biomass, and also from natural gas, by Fischer-Tropsch (FT) Technology are analysed and discussed. After an introduction of the technology as such, environmental aspects and the life cycle perspective of synthetic gasoline and diesel oil are discussed, and some possible national/regional scenarios are analysed and presented. Vehicle emission tests with synthetic gasoline carried out at DTU are described and discussed in this report as well. Based on the result of the analysis and the vehicle emission tests presented in the report, a first SWOT analysis of Fischer-Tropsch technology is then presented, and finally some main conclusions are drawn. During the execution of the annex Sasol in South Africa, Nykomb Synergetics in Sweden, Chemrec in Sweden, the Technical University of Denmark, VTT in Finland, the Varnamo gasification research project in Sweden, and the Black liquor gasification project in Pitea, Sweden have been visited. Some of the most important conclusions are that: 1) FT-Fuels such as FT-Diesel (FTD) and FT-Gasoline (FTG) produced through CoalTo-Liquid, (CTL), Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) and Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) technologies can contribute to reducing the dependency on crude oil. 2) FTD and FTG are attractive for use in neat form and also as components in blends with low quality diesel and gasoline, to upgrade fuels to meet the ever more stringent regulations. 3) Production and use of

  5. Exchanging information

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1971-01-01

    The Agency has a statutory mandate to foster 'the exchange of scientific and technical information on the peaceful uses of atomic energy'. The prime responsibility for this work within the Agency lies with the Division of Scientific and Technical Information, a part of the Department of Technical Operations. The Division accomplishes its task by holding conferences and symposia (Scientific Conferences Section), through the Agency Library, by publishing scientific journals, and through the International Nuclear Information System (INIS). The Computer Section of the Division, which offers services to the Agency as a whole, provides resources for the automation of data storage and retrieval. (author)

  6. Messages, limitations and future needs of research into environmental impacts and mitigating and remediation measures of oil palm and forest land-use and land management in SE Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Rory; Bidin, Kawi; Nurhidayu, Siti; Nainar, Anand; Annammala, Kogilavani; Blake, William; Higton, Sam; Wall, Katy; Darling, Isabella

    2017-04-01

    Oil palm and forest logging land-uses have expanded immensely in recent decades in SE Asia and other parts of the humid tropics - and increasingly into steeplands where adverse biophysical in situ and downstream impacts are particularly severe. With a focus on recent and current projects in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo) and Peninsular Malaysia, this paper examines the changing nature of research foci and approaches of research projects to assess impacts and develop and test mitigation strategies. Early projects focussed on comparing slope- and catchment-scale hydrology and erosion of selectively logged forest and primary forest and on ways of reducing logging impacts. The second phase of research focussed increasingly on (1) longer-term recovery from logging and (2) the likely impacts of climate change. With repeat logging and conversion of areas of forest to oil palm (and conservation of remaining primary forest was secured), the focus of attention has moved to (1) assessing impacts of oil palm conversion and land management practices, (2) testing existing (and potentially more effective) Roundtable for Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO) guidelines and Government Regulations aimed at reducing impacts and (3) developing and testing ways of restoring and rehabilitating forest within both badly degraded logged forest areas and largely oil palm landscapes - with attention focussed on the landscape scale, the long-term, downstream as well as in situ impacts and the more vulnerable steepland areas. Two multidisciplinary umbrella projects - the SAFE (Stability of Altered Forest Ecosystems) Project and the SEnSOR Programme - have formed the backbone of this latest phase. The SAFE Project is a ten-year programme assessing the effectiveness of retention of differing widths of riparian forest buffers and different- sized forest 'islands' within converted oil palm landscapes in reducing their adverse ecological, emissions, hydrological, erosional and water pollution impacts. The SEn

  7. Oil and development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, F

    1974-10-01

    The shift in world income due to the increase in oil prices has resulted in a world economy that has been thrown off balance. Nine papers are presented that explore the background and the main implications of this ''watershed'' in international relations, particularly the extent to which it will affect the development prospects of poor countries and the climate of trade between poor and rich nations in the next few years. Two papers, ''Diary of Events in the Oil Market 1971--1974'' and ''Statistical Background,'' provide information on the financial changes implied by the price increase; some of the figures should be treated as preliminary estimates only. ''Large International Firms in the Oil Industry'' examines the part played by the major oil companies in developments in the oil market leading up to the events of 1973. Two papers, ''Can OPEC Maintain Current Prices'' and ''OPEC As a Model for Other Mineral Exporters,'' present optimistic conclusions, from the viewpoint of developing countries, on their future capability for controlling their own destinies in trade. ''A Note on Some Issues Raised for Science and Technology Policy by the Increase in Oil Prices'' looks at options open to producers and consumers of raw materials. ''Assessing the Economic Impact on Developing Countries and Some Policy Suggestions,'' ''A Note on the Implications of the Oil Price Increases for British Aid Policy,'' and ''Confrontation Versus Co-operation'' are three papers concerned with difficulties of developing countries and particularly India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. (MCW)

  8. Oil shale highlights

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1994-01-01

    The low prices of crude oil have continued to retard the commercial development of oil shale and other syn fuels. Although research funds are more difficult to find, some R and D work by industry, academia, and governmental agencies continues in the United States and in other parts of the world. Improvements in retorting technology, upgrading oil-shale feedstock, and developing high-value niche-market products from shale oil are three notable areas of research that have been prominent for the past several years. Although the future prices of conventional crude cannot be predicted, it seems evident that diminishing supplies and a burgeoning world population will force us to turn to alternate fossil fuels as well as to cleaner sources of non-fossil energy. (author)

  9. Matchmaker Exchange.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobreira, Nara L M; Arachchi, Harindra; Buske, Orion J; Chong, Jessica X; Hutton, Ben; Foreman, Julia; Schiettecatte, François; Groza, Tudor; Jacobsen, Julius O B; Haendel, Melissa A; Boycott, Kym M; Hamosh, Ada; Rehm, Heidi L

    2017-10-18

    In well over half of the individuals with rare disease who undergo clinical or research next-generation sequencing, the responsible gene cannot be determined. Some reasons for this relatively low yield include unappreciated phenotypic heterogeneity; locus heterogeneity; somatic and germline mosaicism; variants of uncertain functional significance; technically inaccessible areas of the genome; incorrect mode of inheritance investigated; and inadequate communication between clinicians and basic scientists with knowledge of particular genes, proteins, or biological systems. To facilitate such communication and improve the search for patients or model organisms with similar phenotypes and variants in specific candidate genes, we have developed the Matchmaker Exchange (MME). MME was created to establish a federated network connecting databases of genomic and phenotypic data using a common application programming interface (API). To date, seven databases can exchange data using the API (GeneMatcher, PhenomeCentral, DECIPHER, MyGene2, matchbox, Australian Genomics Health Alliance Patient Archive, and Monarch Initiative; the latter included for model organism matching). This article guides usage of the MME for rare disease gene discovery. © 2017 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

  10. Heat exchanger

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harada, F; Yanagida, T; Fujie, K; Futawatari, H

    1975-04-30

    The purpose of this construction is the improvement of heat transfer in finned tube heat exchangers, and therefore the improvement of its efficiency or its output per unit volume. This is achieved by preventing the formation of flow boundary layers in gaseous fluid. This effect always occurs on flow of smooth adjacent laminae, and especially if these have pipes carrying liquid passing through them; it worsens the heat transfer of such a boundary layer considerably compared to that in the turbulent range. The fins, which have several rows of heat exchange tubes passing through them, are fixed at a small spacing on theses tubes. The fins have slots cut in them by pressing or punching, where the pressed-out material remains as a web, which runs parallel to the level of the fin and at a small distance from it. These webs and slots are arranged radially around every tube hole, e.g. 6 in number. For a suitable small tube spacing, two adjacent tubes opposite each other have one common slot. Many variants of such slot arrangements are illustrated.

  11. OPEC's optimal crude oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Horn, Manfred

    2004-01-01

    OPEC decided to stabilise oil prices within a range of 22-28 US Dollar/barrel of crude oil. Such an oil-price-level is far beyond the short and long run marginal costs of oil production, beyond even that in regions with particularly high costs. Nevertheless, OPEC may achieve its goal if world demand for oil increases substantially in the future and oil resources outside the OPEC are not big enough to accordingly increase production. In this case OPEC, which controls about 78% of world oil reserves, has to supply a large share of that demand increase. If we assume OPEC will behave as a partial monopolist on the oil market, which takes into consideration the reaction of the other producers to its own sales strategy, it can reach its price target. Lower prices before 2020 are probable only if the OPEC cartel breaks up. Higher prices are possible if production outside OPEC is inelastic as assumed by some geologists, but they would probably stimulate the production of unconventional oil based on oil sand or coal. Crude oil prices above 30 US Dollar/barrel are therefore probably not sustainable for a long period. (Author)

  12. Lavender oil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lavender oil is an oil made from the flowers of lavender plants. Lavender poisoning can occur when ... further instructions. This is a free and confidential service. All local poison control centers in the United ...

  13. Petroleum Oils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Different types of crude oil and refined product, of all different chemical compositions, have distinct physical properties. These properties affect the way oil spreads and breaks down, its hazard to marine and human life, and the likelihood of threat.

  14. Remediation of oil-contaminated soil in Arctic Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Erland; Fritt-Rasmussen, Janne; Rodrigo, Ana

    Oil spill is a problem in towns in Greenland, where oil is used for heating and transport. The problem may increase in the future with expected oil exploitation in Greenlandic marine areas and related terrestrial activities. Oil undergoes natural microbial degradation in which nutrients, temperat....... Experiments have been made with excavated oil-contaminated soil from the Greenlandic town Sisimiut to study different low-tech and low-cost solutions for remediation of oil-contamination...

  15. Remediation of oil-contaminated soil in Arctic Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Pernille Erland; Fritt-Rasmussen, Janne; Rodrigo, Ana P.

    Oil spill is a problem in towns in Greenland, where oil is used for heating and transport. The problem may increase in the future with expected oil exploitation in Greenlandic marine areas and related terrestrial activities. Oil undergoes natural microbial degradation in which nutrients, temperat...... have been made with excavated oil-contaminated soil from the Greenlandic town Sisimiut to study different low-tech and low-cost solutions for remediation of oil-contamination....

  16. Producers and oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greaves, W.

    1993-01-01

    This article attempts an assessment of the potential use of futures by the Middle East oil producers. It focuses on Saudi Arabia since the sheer size of Saudi Arabian sales poses problems, but the basic issues discussed are similar for the other Middle East producers. (Author)

  17. Oil biodegradation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahsepar, Shokouhalsadat; Langenhoff, Alette A.M.; Smit, Martijn P.J.; Eenennaam, van Justine S.; Murk, Tinka; Rijnaarts, Huub H.M.

    2017-01-01

    During the Deepwater Horizon (DwH) oil spill, interactions between oil, clay particles and marine snow lead to the formation of aggregates. Interactions between these components play an important, but yet not well understood, role in biodegradation of oil in the ocean water. The aim of this study

  18. Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, D. [TD Securities Inc., Toronto, ON (Canada)

    1997-08-01

    Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management.

  19. Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.

    1997-01-01

    Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management

  20. 9Real exchange rate misalignment and economic performance in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the impact of real exchange rate misalignment has not received adequate attention .... investment (FDI) and the commercial exploitation of oil in 1999. Notably, the flow of .... the analysis proceeds in two steps: 1) we measure the exchange rate misalignment, ... non-tradable goods (TAX) and the net foreign income (NFI).

  1. Segmented heat exchanger

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Darryl Dean; Willi, Martin Leo; Fiveland, Scott Byron; Timmons, Kristine Ann

    2010-12-14

    A segmented heat exchanger system for transferring heat energy from an exhaust fluid to a working fluid. The heat exchanger system may include a first heat exchanger for receiving incoming working fluid and the exhaust fluid. The working fluid and exhaust fluid may travel through at least a portion of the first heat exchanger in a parallel flow configuration. In addition, the heat exchanger system may include a second heat exchanger for receiving working fluid from the first heat exchanger and exhaust fluid from a third heat exchanger. The working fluid and exhaust fluid may travel through at least a portion of the second heat exchanger in a counter flow configuration. Furthermore, the heat exchanger system may include a third heat exchanger for receiving working fluid from the second heat exchanger and exhaust fluid from the first heat exchanger. The working fluid and exhaust fluid may travel through at least a portion of the third heat exchanger in a parallel flow configuration.

  2. Canada's crude oil resources : crude oil in our daily lives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bott, R.

    2001-10-01

    Created in 1975, the Petroleum Communication Foundation is a not-for-profit organization. The objective of the Foundation is to inform Canadians about the petroleum industry in Canada. It produces educational, fact-based publications and programs, employing a multi-stakeholder review process. The first section of this publication is devoted to crude oil and the benefits that are derived from it. It begins by providing a brief definition of crude oil, then moves to the many uses in our daily lives and the environmental impacts like air pollution, spills, and footprint on the land from exploration and production activities. Section 2 details the many uses of crude oil and identifies the major oil producing regions of Canada. A quick mention is made of non-conventional sources of crude oil. The search for crude oil is the topic of section 3 of the document, providing an overview of the exploration activities, the access rights that must be obtained before gaining access to the resource. The drilling of oil is discussed in section 4. Section 5 deals with issues pertaining to reservoirs within rocks, while section 6 covers the feeding of the refineries, discussing topics from the movement of oil to market to the refining of the crude oil, and the pricing issues. In section 7, the uncertain future is examined with a view of balancing the supply and demand, as crude oil is a non-renewable resource. Supplementary information is provided concerning additional publications published by various organizations and agencies. figs

  3. The outlook for US oil dependence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greene, D.L.; Jones, D.W.; Leiby, P.N.

    1998-01-01

    Oil dependence is defined as a dynamic problem of short- and long-run market power. The potential monopoly power of an oil cartel depends on its market share and the elasticities of oil supply and demand, while the economic vulnerability of oil-consuming states depends most directly on the quantity of oil imported and the oil cost share of gross domestic product (GDP). Of these factors, only the market share of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cartel and the rate of growth of world oil demand are clearly different than they were 25 years ago. OPEC still holds the majority of world oil and, in the future, will regain market share. A hypothetical 2-year supply reduction in 2005-2006, similar in size to those of 1973-1974 or 1979-1980, illustrates the potential benefits to OPEC and harm to the US economy of a future oil price shock. OPEC's revenues are estimated to increase by roughly $0.7 trillion, while the US economy loses about $0.5 trillion. Strategic petroleum reserves seem ineffective against a determined, multi-year supply curtailment. Increasing the market's price responsiveness by improving the technologies of oil supply and oil demand can greatly reduce the costs of oil dependence. Each element of this interpretation of the oil dependence problem is well supported by previous studies. This paper's contribution is to unite these elements into a coherent explanation and to point out the enormously important implications for energy policy. (Author)

  4. Droplets on posterior surface of intraocular lens in silicone oil filled eye.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sharma Y

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Silicone oil adherence to silicone IOLs after silicone oil removal is a known complication in pseudophakic patients. Droplet removal is difficult and may require IOL exchange. We describe two cases in which silicone oil droplets were observed early in the postoperative period in PMMA pseudophakic eyes and disappeared during silicone oil-fluid exchange--a phenomenon that has not been reported earlier in human PMMA pseudophakic eyes.

  5. Economics Aspects of Increasing the Oil Price

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grendel Peter

    2004-09-01

    Full Text Available In paper I describe mainly high price of oil, which has influence on many circumstances. The important effect on growing up the price of oil has situation in Mid-east, and everyday rising consumption of oil in China. Meaningful position have USA, which using 45% of word energy. The problem is particularly in daily mining of lode. In next part i describing aspect of this situation on stock-exchange, mainly behaviour of speculators, and OPEC, and also presure on inflation in Euro-zone. In the last chapter I discuss about reaction of the big world oil concern like CONOCO, SHELL, BP, OMV and MOL.

  6. The new oil politics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodado Noriega, Carlos

    1999-01-01

    With a varied menu of adjustments, Colombia looks for to improve the range of international competitiveness and to attract the elusive private investment of risk for the future development of the oil sector. Colombia has just given to its oil sector the biggest rolling in the last decades. A series of measures of diverse class looks for to assign to the country a bigger range of competitiveness international and better exploration indicators that it assures in the time the auto supply of hydrocarbons and the export of surpluses

  7. Microbial enhancement of oil recovery: Recent advances

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Premuzic, E.T.; Woodhead, A.D.; Vivirito, K.J. (eds.)

    1992-01-01

    During recent years, systematic, scientific, and engineering effort by researchers in the United States and abroad, has established the scientific basis for Microbial Enhanced Oil Recovery (MEOR) technology. The successful application of MEOR technology as an oil recovery process is a goal of the Department of Energy (DOE). Research efforts involving aspects of MEOR in the microbiological, biochemical, and engineering fields led DOE to sponsor an International Conference at Brookhaven National Laboratory in 1992, to facilitate the exchange of information and a discussion of ideas for the future research emphasis. At this, the Fourth International MEOR Conference, where international attendees from 12 countries presented a total of 35 papers, participants saw an equal distribution between research'' and field applications.'' In addition, several modeling and state-of-the-art'' presentations summed up the present status of MEOR science and engineering. Individual papers in this proceedings have been process separately for inclusion in the Energy Science and Technology Database.

  8. Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, Boqiang; Xie, Chunping

    2013-01-01

    China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5 million ton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86 MTOE and 131 MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector. - Highlights: • We adopt the co-integration model to estimate oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector. • Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. • GDP, ratio of classified highway, labor productivity and oil price are main factors affecting oil consumption. • Scenario analysis approach is applied to calculate oil saving potential under different energy saving scenarios. • Future policy for oil conservation in China's road transport sector is suggested

  9. Hydrocarbon oils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foorwood, G F; Taplay, J G

    1916-12-12

    Hydrocarbon oils are hydrogenated, cracked, or treated for the removal of sulfur by bringing their vapors mixed with steam at temperatures between 450 and 600/sup 0/C into contact with a form of carbon that is capable of decomposing steam with the production of nascent hydrogen at those temperatures. The forms of carbon used include lamp-black, soot, charcoals derived from wood, cellulose, and lignite, and carbons obtained by carbonizing oil residues and other organic bodies at temperatures below 600/sup 0/C. The process is applied to the treatment of coal oil, shale oil, petroleum, and lignite oil. In examples, kerosene is cracked at 570/sup 0/C, cracked spirit is hydrogenated at 500/sup 0/C, and shale spirit is desulfurized at 530/sup 0/C. The products are led to a condenser and thence to a scrubber, where they are washed with creosote oil. After desulfurization, the products are washed with dilute caustic soda to remove sulfurretted hydrogen.

  10. Oil crises

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Linderoth, H.

    1992-01-01

    The author's aim was to give very precise information on the many causes and effects of the oil crises that have occurred since 1900, and at the same time offer the reader the possibility to build up a basic knowledge of the oil industry and market, as he feels that the public is often subjected to misleading information. Political and economical aspects are elaborated. First-hand sources such as statistics and investigations have been used as far as possible to give information on the oil market. An oil crisis is defined by the author as a significant change in the price of oil compared to prices of other goods. Changes can be in the form of either rising or falling prices. A special chapter concentrates on Denmark in relation to the oil crises. (AB) (165 refs.)

  11. World oil market simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baldwin, N.

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents a recursive simulation model of the world oil market - the World Oil Market Simulation Model (WOMS). The objective was to construct a computationally simple model which provides a transparent view of the workings of the oil market. In the event WOMS has a number of features which distinguish it from other published models: the effect of exchange rate movements is incorporated in the supply and demand functions; both demand and supply functions are dynamic; the non-OPEC supply functions account for the geological as well as the economic aspects of supply; oil prices can be determined either by OPEC setting prices (as normally included in this type of model) or by OPEC setting volumes and market forces determining the price; and consistency checks on consumers' and producers' behaviour are incorporated to confirm the plausibility of model projections. The paper commences with an outline of the model structure followed by an examination of the choice of the appropriate data. The main sections of the paper discuss the estimation of the demand and non-OPEC supply functions. Finally the modelling of OPEC's behaviour is addressed. Comparisons are made throughout with other published work. As the model was estimated using data covering 1960 to 1985, brief comments are also made comparing the events of 1986 with model determined values. (author)

  12. Enterprise Oil gets going

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Priscilla.

    1996-01-01

    Enterprise Oil is a mature United Kingdom independent oil exploration and production company. In its early years, with the success of the Nelson platform in the North Sea, the company had been well rated by financial analysts in the City of London. Enterprise was floated as an independent company on the International Stock Exchange in London in 1984 having previously been part of the establishment being formed by the Government from the oil and production interests of British Gas on the UK Continental shelf. Relationships with the City suffered, however, as a result of the unsuccessful outcome of moves by the company to take over Lasmo, the only other UK independent oil company of comparable magnitude. Pedestrian financial results and poor exploration results led to Enterprise dividends being stuck in a rut from 1992 onwards. This report, however, shows how that situation is changing so that the company's share price has been reaching new highs. Enterprise has been adding quantitative value to the company through swaps, farm-in deals and licensed acquisitions and now has interests in core income producing areas in the UK, Norway, Denmark and Italy. (UK)

  13. Cuba's oil crisis spells trouble for Castro

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    This paper reports on Cuba's oil crisis which presents long term woes for the government of Fidel Castro but new opportunities for foreign petroleum investment. That's the main thesis of a study by East-West Center (EWC), Honolulu. Since the cutoff of subsidized oil supplies from the former Soviet Union at the first of the year, Cuba has endured a crippling loss of export revenues and draconian energy rationing measures at home. The Soviets had reduced oil supplies to Cuba since 1989 after decades of providing the Castro government with subsidized oil supplies. Former Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev exempted Cuba from paying market prices for Soviet oil in 1991 while requiring that of Soviet trading partners in eastern Europe. With the collapse of Communism in the former U.S.S.R., however, oil supplies from that region are available to Cuba only at market prices and for hard currency. That has triggered a crisis in the Western Hemisphere's sole Communist regime as Cuba's gross special product - equivalent to GNP - fell by 5% in 1990 and a further 20% in 1991. The foreign exchange loss of $1.6 billion stemming from the loss of Soviet subsidized oil supplies exceeds that of total foreign exchange earnings from all other sources. If Cuba imports oil in 1989 volumes at current prices, its oil import tab alone will be $1.3 billion, EWC projects

  14. Enhanced oil recovery system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldsberry, Fred L.

    1989-01-01

    All energy resources available from a geopressured geothermal reservoir are used for the production of pipeline quality gas using a high pressure separator/heat exchanger and a membrane separator, and recovering waste gas from both the membrane separator and a low pressure separator in tandem with the high pressure separator for use in enhanced oil recovery, or in powering a gas engine and turbine set. Liquid hydrocarbons are skimmed off the top of geothermal brine in the low pressure separator. High pressure brine from the geothermal well is used to drive a turbine/generator set before recovering waste gas in the first separator. Another turbine/generator set is provided in a supercritical binary power plant that uses propane as a working fluid in a closed cycle, and uses exhaust heat from the combustion engine and geothermal energy of the brine in the separator/heat exchanger to heat the propane.

  15. Oil pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mankabady, Samir.

    1994-08-01

    Oil enters the marine environment when it is discharged, or has escaped, during transport, drilling, shipping, accidents, dumping and offshore operations. This book serves as a reference both on the various complex international operational and legal matters of oil pollution using examples such as the Exxon Valdez, the Braer and Lord Donaldson's report. The chapters include the development of international rules on the marine environment, the prevention of marine pollution from shipping activities, liability for oil pollution damage, the conflict of the 1990 Oil Pollution Act and the 1992 protocols and finally the cooperation and response to pollution incidents. (UK)

  16. Energy exchange

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anderson, B. [SolArc, Inc. (United States)

    2000-09-01

    The article discusses the identification of efficiencies that can minimise transaction costs in energy trading and marketing. The article describes what is meant by 'trade management'. It is argued that a trade management system should be able to dovetail with existing or future ERP, advanced risk management, and financial management systems, to provide total enterprise integration. With the right trade management systems, traders have all the necessary information to help them manage exposure to financial risks in a world where energy trading companies are forced to accept very small margins. A trade management system can cover many aspects of a business including the winning of contracts for transportation deals, including rail, car, truck, barge and pipeline. There appears to be unprecedented opportunities for companies specialising in development and provision of trade management systems.

  17. Energy exchange

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anderson, B.

    2000-01-01

    The article discusses the identification of efficiencies that can minimise transaction costs in energy trading and marketing. The article describes what is meant by 'trade management'. It is argued that a trade management system should be able to dovetail with existing or future ERP, advanced risk management, and financial management systems, to provide total enterprise integration. With the right trade management systems, traders have all the necessary information to help them manage exposure to financial risks in a world where energy trading companies are forced to accept very small margins. A trade management system can cover many aspects of a business including the winning of contracts for transportation deals, including rail, car, truck, barge and pipeline. There appears to be unprecedented opportunities for companies specialising in development and provision of trade management systems

  18. Changes in the world market in oil and oil refinements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ristik, Julija

    1996-01-01

    Since 1980's the world market for crude oil and oil products has faced significant changes that are going to have a grate influence on the supply and consumption of crude oil derivatives in Macedonia. The knowledge of these changes would have a grate contribution in planning the future development of this part of the energetic system of Macedonia. The purpose of this paper (which is a short version of the introductory report for the ZEMAK session with a theme 'Energetic policy and development of energetics in Macedonia') is to present the actual situation on the market for crude oil products, as well as to give the main factors that would have influence on this market in the future. (author). 4 refs., 3 ills

  19. Bretton Woods Fixed Exchange Rate System versus Floating Exchange Rate System

    OpenAIRE

    Geza, Paula; Giurca Vasilescu, Laura

    2011-01-01

    One of the most important issues of monetary policy is to find out whether the state should intervene among the exchange rates, taking into account the fact that changes in the exchange rates represent a significant transmission channel of the effects generated by the monetary policy. Taking into consideration the failure of fixed exchange rate regimes and the recent improvement of financial markets, the return in the near future to such a regime – as for example the Bretton Woods system –...

  20. Heavy crude and tar sands - the long-term oil reserve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barnea, J

    1984-10-01

    It appears that heavy crude and tar sands occur in many sedimentary areas, and estimates of known world-wide quantities exceed those known for conventional light crude resources. Although there are not precise figures available, production could be as high as three million barrels per day, with Venezuela, the US, and Canada the largest producers. There are different scales to measure the costs of production because of differences in the quality of various types of heavy crude and tar sands. Economic development of these resources should banish fears of oil scarcity in the foreseeable future. A center for information exchange through international meetings and publications is under development.

  1. Thermal energy storage systems using fluidized bed heat exchangers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weast, T.; Shannon, L.

    1980-06-01

    A rotary cement kiln and an electric arc furnace were chosen for evaluation to determine the applicability of a fluid bed heat exchanger (FBHX) for thermal energy storage (TES). Multistage shallow bed FBHX's operating with high temperature differences were identified as the most suitable for TES applications. Analysis of the two selected conceptual systems included establishing a plant process flow configuration, an operational scenario, a preliminary FBHX/TES design, and parametric analysis. A computer model was developed to determine the effects of the number of stages, gas temperatures, gas flows, bed materials, charge and discharge time, and parasitic power required for operation. The maximum national energy conservation potential of the cement plant application with TES is 15.4 million barrels of oil or 3.9 million tons of coal per year. For the electric arc furnance application the maximum national conservation potential with TES is 4.5 million barrels of oil or 1.1 million tons of coal per year. Present time of day utility rates are near the breakeven point required for the TES system. Escalation of on-peak energy due to critical fuel shortages could make the FBHX/TES applications economically attractive in the future.

  2. seed oil

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Wara

    Neem seed oil from the neem tree (Azadiracta indica) finds wide usage one of which is its utilization for cosmetics particularly .... obtained which is higher than that of olive oil 17. mgKOH/g (Davine ... The skin tolerance of shea fat employed as ...

  3. Development of the German mineral oil market in 1995. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohnfeld, J.; Heinze, W.

    1996-01-01

    Following a brief glance at the boundary conditions for the German market (world oil market, inland energy consumption), the development of inland sales is described. One after one, the mineral oil products Otto engine fuel, diesel fuel, light fuel oil and heavy fuel oil are considered. Further sections deal with crude oil supply, the supply of mineral oil produce, refinery production, the development in the sales sector, the profit situation of the mineral oil industry, the development of prices (according to products) and expenditure in foreign exchange for mineral oil. The article contains numerous tables and graphs; comparisons with the years previously illustrate development trends. (UA) [de

  4. The effect of fiscal policy on oil revenue fund: The case of Kazakhstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dina Azhgaliyeva

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Setting an optimal fiscal policy in oil-producing countries is challenging, due to the exhaustibility of oil resources and unpredictability of oil prices. Recently it has become popular among oil-producing countries to establish oil revenue funds, which are believed to stabilize the economy and provide inter-generational redistribution of oil wealth. The effectiveness of oil revenue funds and their design have received considerable attention from researchers and policymakers recently. Using empirical model, it is found that an oil revenue fund in Kazakhstan stabilized the government expenditure, but did not stabilize real effective exchange rates.

  5. Oil Prices and Venezuela's Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Mark Weisbrot; Rebecca Ray

    2008-01-01

    This paper looks at Venezuela’s export revenue, imports, and trade and current account balances under a range of oil price outcomes for the next two years. It finds that Venezuela would run large current account surpluses for prices between $60-90 per barrel, and would even run a small surplus with prices at $50 per barrel. (Most oil industry estimates for the next two years are in the range of $80-90 per barrel). The authors conclude that Venezuela is unlikely to run into foreign exchange co...

  6. Oil price fluctuations and the Nigerian economy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ayadi, O.F.

    2005-01-01

    The single most important issue confronting a growing number of world economies today is the price of oil and its attendant consequences on economic output. Several studies have taken the approach of Hamilton (1983) in investigating the effect of oil price shocks on levels of gross domestic product. The focus of this paper is primarily on the relationship between oil price changes and economic development via industrial production. A vector auto regression model is employed on some macroeconomic variables from 1980 through 2004. The results indicate that oil price changes affect real exchange rates, which, in turn, affect industrial production. However, this indirect effect of oil prices on industrial production is not statistically significant. Therefore, the implication of the results presented in this paper is that an increase in oil prices does not lead to an increase in industrial production in Nigeria. (author)

  7. Oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hamm, Keith

    1992-01-01

    The two major political events of 1991 produced a much less dramatic reaction in the global oil industry than might have been expected. The economic dislocation in the former USSR caused oil production to fall sharply but this was largely offset by a concurrent fall in demand. Within twelve months of the invasion of Kuwait, crude oil prices had returned to their pre-invasion level; there was no shortage of supply due to the ability of some producers to boost their output rapidly. Details are given of world oil production and developments in oil demand. Demand stagnated in 1991 due to mainly to the economic chaos in the former USSR and a slowdown in sales in the USA; this has produced problems for the future of the refining industry. By contrast, the outlook for the natural gas industry is much more buoyant. Most clean air or carbon emissions legislation is designed to promote the use of gas rather than other hydrocarbons. World gas production rose by 1.5% in 1991; details by production on a country by country basis are given. (UK)

  8. Regulation of oil trading: a U.S. and U.K. legal update (or) Death of Transnor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Turck, N.B.

    1992-01-01

    Current law in the USA and United Kingdom relating to commodities trading in oil and oil products is an area of uncertainty and case law is not necessarily consistent with regulation. The principal laws relating to commodities trading are reviewed and analysed as they apply to the oil market. In the case of the USA this is the Commodities Exchange Act (CEA) administered by the Commodities Future Trading Commission (CFTC). Conflicting interpretations of the CEA of the US Federal Court in a case concerning the Brent crude transactions of the Transnor company, and by the CFTC, are examined. In contrast to the USA, where transactions and the market are regulated, the United Kingdom regulation is aimed at the traders and their behaviour. In the United Kingdom, the Financial Services Act 1986 (FSA) established self-regulating professional bodies to issue rules governing the conduct of entities carrying on investment business. Rules applying to oil and product traders are issued and enforced by the Security and Futures Authority Ltd (SFA). Additionally the Securities and Investment Board (SIB), the umbrella organisation of the regulatory bodies established by the FSA, has produced an Oil Market Code of Practice which is appended to this article. (UK)

  9. Oil Volatility Risk and Expected Stock Returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Pan, Xuhui (Nick)

    After the financialization of commodity futures markets in 2004-05 oil volatility has become a strong predictor of returns and volatility of the overall stock market. Furthermore, stocks' exposure to oil volatility risk now drives the cross-section of expected returns. The difference in average...... return between the quintile of stocks with low exposure and high exposure to oil volatility is significant at 0.66% per month, and oil volatility risk carries a significant risk premium of -0.60% per month. In the post-financialization period, oil volatility risk is strongly related with various measures...

  10. Towards an understanding of the role of clay minerals in crude oil formation, migration and accumulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lin Mei; Zhou, Chun Hui; Keeling, John; Tong, Dong Shen; Yu, Wei Hua

    2012-12-01

    This article reviews progress in the understanding of the role of clay minerals in crude oil formation, migration and accumulation. Clay minerals are involved in the formation of kerogen, catalytic cracking of kerogen into petroleum hydrocarbon, the migration of crude oil, and the continued change to hydrocarbon composition in underground petroleum reservoirs. In kerogen formation, clay minerals act as catalysts and sorbents to immobilize organic matter through ligand exchange, hydrophobic interactions and cation bridges by the mechanisms of Maillard reactions, polyphenol theory, selective preservation and sorptive protection. Clay minerals also serve as catalysts in acid-catalyzed cracking of kerogen into petroleum hydrocarbon through Lewis and Brønsted acid sites on the clay surface. The amount and type of clay mineral affect the composition of the petroleum. Brønsted acidity of clay minerals is affected by the presence and state of interlayer water, and displacement of this water is a probable driver in crude oil migration from source rocks. During crude oil migration and accumulation in reservoirs, the composition of petroleum is continually modified by interaction with clay minerals. The clays continue to function as sorbents and catalysts even while they are being transformed by diagenetic processes. The detail of chemical interactions and reaction mechanisms between clay minerals and crude oil formation remains to be fully explained but promises to provide insights with broader application, including catalytic conversion of biomass as a source of sustainable energy into the future.

  11. Futures market efficiency diagnostics via temporal two-point correlations. Russian market case study

    OpenAIRE

    Kopytin, Mikhail; Kazantsev, Evgeniy

    2013-01-01

    Using a two-point correlation technique, we study emergence of market efficiency in the emergent Russian futures market by focusing on lagged correlations. The correlation strength of leader-follower effects in the lagged inter-market correlations on the hourly time frame is seen to be significant initially (2009-2011) but gradually goes down, as the erstwhile leader instruments -- crude oil, the USD/RUB exchange rate, and the Russian stock market index -- seem to lose the leader status. An i...

  12. Exchange market pressure

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jager, H.; Klaassen, F.; Durlauf, S.N.; Blume, L.E.

    2010-01-01

    Currencies can be under severe pressure in the foreign exchange market, but in a fixed (or managed) exchange rate regime that is not fully visible via the change in the exchange rate. Exchange market pressure (EMP) is a concept developed to nevertheless measure the pressure in such cases. This

  13. European oil product supply modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saint-Antonin, V.

    1998-01-01

    Over the last few years, trends in European oil product consumption (in terms of level as structure and quality) has important implications of the refining industry. In this context, the purpose of this thesis consists in building a mathematical programming model applied to the European refineries in order to determine oil product supply prices, European refining industry investments and oil product exchanges of the European Union. The first part presents the reason for our choice for a long-term aggregate multi-refineries linear programming model, based on European refineries characteristics and the objectives of our model. Its dual properties are studied in detail and we focus particularly on the European exchange modelling. In the second part, an analysis of the European refining trends leads us to identify parameters and variables of the model that are essential to the aggregate representation of the European oil product supply. The third part is devoted to the use of this model, regarding two scenarios of increasingly stringent specifications for gasoline and diesel oil. Our interest for these products is due to their important share of the European oil product consumption and the not insignificant responsibility of the transport sector for atmospheric pollution. Finally, in order to have the use of an overall picture of the European refining industry, we build a regression model summarizing, though a few equations, the main relations between the major endogenous and exogenous variables o the LP model. Based on pseudo-data, this kind of model provides a simple and robust representation of the oil product supply. But a more specialized analysis of the refining industry operations, turning on a technical assessment of processing units, is reliant on the use of an optimization model such as the model we have built. (author)

  14. European gas oil markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long, D.

    1991-04-01

    The developments over the past five years of the bulk markets for gas oil in Europe are examined using advanced econometric techniques to study the related issues of pricing efficiency and hedge efficiency. The study attempts to preserve the fluctuations of the actual data as these provide insights into the process of price discovery. The markets studied include the spot, forward and futures markets and looks for evidence of differentiated markets. (UK)

  15. Oil company profitability: observations on the use of oil product price assessments and associated errors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jenkins, Gilbert

    2000-01-01

    Oil companies often report the exact price obtained for crude oil sales. Furthermore, crude oil prices may be linked to the price of Brent crude oil which is actively and very transparently traded on the International Petroleum Exchange. Brent crude oil prices are reported worldwide electronically and in many newspapers on a daily basis. Gas oil (No. 2 Fuel oil in the USA) is actively traded on the IPE and on NYMEX and the prices are also reported worldwide almost instantaneously. One grade of unleaded gasoline is traded on NYMEX but all other oil products do not have regulated and transparent markets. The prices of these products are assessed by price reporters following daily discussions with active oil traders. Two prices are assessed and reported, the bid (low) and offer (high) even if no trade has taken place. The oil industry itself and oil products consumers make much use of these assessed prices. The object of this paper is to provide some statistical detail on the differences between various product price assessments made through 2000. From these differences, it is possible to provide an indication of the precision of oil product price assessments However, it is doubtful if precision data based on a simple determination of the standard deviation of the differences between the assessment made by the various price reporting services would be of practical use. (Author)

  16. Soybean (Glycine max) oil bodies and their associated phytochemicals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisk, Ian D; Gray, David A

    2011-01-01

    Soybean oil bodies were isolated from 3 cultivars (Ustie, K98, and Elena) and the occurrence of 2 classes of phytochemicals (tocopherol isoforms and isoflavones) and strength of their association with isolated oil bodies was evaluated. Tocopherol is shown to be closely associated with soybean oil bodies; δ-tocopherol demonstrated a significantly greater association with oil bodies over other tocopherol isoforms. Isoflavones do not show a significant physical association with oil bodies, although there is some indication of a passive association of the more hydrophobic aglycones during oil body isolation. Oil bodies are small droplets of oil that are stored as energy reserves in the seeds of oil seeds, and have the potential to be used as future food ingredients. If oil body suspensions are commercialized on a large scale, knowledge of the association of phytochemicals with oil bodies will be valuable in deciding species of preference and predicting shelf life and nutritional value. © 2011 Institute of Food Technologists®

  17. The 2014 oil bust: Causes and consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokic, Damir

    2015-01-01

    This article suggests that the 2014 oil price collapse was possibly triggered by the falling Euro versus the US Dollar. Specifically, the USD/EUR exchange rate likely adjusted to the sudden economic growth outlook divergence between the US and the EU, as evident by the relative short term interest rate spread measures, and triggered a “strong dollar” trade, which is negative for the crude oil prices. Thus, in our view, the 2014 oil price bust is another episode of oil price inefficiency, similar to the 2008 oil bubble. The key argument presented in this article is that, as long as there are temporary economic growth divergences between the US and the EU, the resulting exchange rate volatility is likely to create the pricing inefficiencies in crude oil, which in fact are mean-reverting, as the economic growth divergences eventually dissipate. -- Highlights: •The 2014 oil price collapse was possibly triggered by the falling Euro versus the US Dollar. •The economic divergence between the US and the EU possibly caused the USD/EUR volatility. •The oil fundamentals contributed to the price collapse with the negative sentiment

  18. Exchange rate predictability and state-of-the-art models

    OpenAIRE

    Yeșin, Pınar

    2016-01-01

    This paper empirically evaluates the predictive performance of the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) exchange rate assessments with respect to future exchange rate movements. The assessments of real trade-weighted exchange rates were conducted from 2006 to 2011, and were based on three state-of-the-art exchange rate models with a medium-term focus which were developed by the IMF. The empirical analysis using 26 advanced and emerging market economy currencies reveals that the "diagnosis" of ...

  19. Oils; gas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Day, D T

    1922-09-18

    Oils and gas are obtained from shale or oil-bearing sand by immersing the shale in and passing it through a bath of liquid oil, cracking the oil-soaked shale, and condensing the vapor and using the condensate to replenish the bath, preferably by passing the gases and vapors direct into the oil-bath container. Shale is fed continuously from a hopper to a bath of oil in an inclined chamber, is carried to the outlet by a conveyer, and through cracking tubes to an outlet pipe by conveyers. The gases and vapors escape by the pipe, a part condensing in the chamber and a run-back pipe and replenishing the bath, and the remainder passing through a condensing tower and condenser connected to reservoirs; the gas is further passed through a scrubber and a pipe to the burner of the retort. The oil condensed in the chamber overflows to the reservoir through a pipe provided with an open pipe to prevent siphoning. The conveyers and a valve on the pipe are operated by gearing. The operation may be conducted at reduced, normal, or increased pressure, e.g., 70 lbs. The temperature of the retort should be about 900 to 1400/sup 0/F, that of the inside of the tubes about 550 to 700/sup 0/F, and that of the chamber about 300/sup 0/F. The chamber and pipe may be insulated or artificially cooled.

  20. Effects of NYMEX trading on IPE Brent Crude futures markets: a duration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin, S.X.; Tamvakis, M.N.

    2004-01-01

    Recent developments in the energy markets, and the surge and dip in crude oil prices over the last few years, have renewed the interest in the workings of the two main price setting markets: London's International Petroleum Exchange (IPE) and New York's Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX). The interaction of these two markets, when both of them are open (synchronous trading) and when only London is open (asynchronous trading), is important, in view of the fact that most participants take positions in both markets. This paper looks at how London is affected by New York by analysing the transaction duration of the IPE Brent futures contract, both when the NYMEX WTI futures contract is being traded and when NYMEX is closed. Using tick-by-tick data obtained from IPE, transaction durations are found to form two distinctive and inverted U-shaped patterns. Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) model, first introduced by Engle and Russell, is applied to the data. Parameters of IPE morning and afternoon are significantly different from each other, underlining the dominant effects of NYMEX on IPE trading. The results from the current analysis reinforce previous results by the authors, which indicate that NYMEX is a leading price setter in crude oil futures prices and has a dominant effect on the IPE-traded contracts