WorldWideScience

Sample records for exceptional epidemics aids

  1. Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Policy The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic The Global HIV/AIDS Epidemic Published: Nov 29, 2017 Facebook Twitter ... 2001-FY 2018 Request The Global Response to HIV/AIDS International efforts to combat HIV began in ...

  2. Russia is on brink of AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingram, M

    1996-08-03

    Russia, and in particular Moscow, is on the brink of an AIDS epidemic, the president of the Russian Medical Academy told doctors gathered in Moscow for a national AIDS seminar. Although Russia has officially registered only 1269 cases of HIV infection, a quarter of them in Moscow, and 193 deaths since the first case appeared in Russia in 1987, health officials are alarmed by the recent rise in the rate of infection. In 1995, 200 new cases were registered, but 205 cases had already been registered in the first 6 months of 1996. The rapid spread of intravenous drug use is the main factor contributing to the rise in HIV infection. According to the head of the Russian AIDS Center, the real number of people infected with HIV in Russia is 3-4 times higher than official numbers, while AIDS activists believe that the real figure is 10-20 times higher. Russia has traditionally blamed its AIDS problem on foreigners and introduced an obligatory HIV test as a visa requirement for long-term visitors. Now neighboring Ukraine and Belarus are being blamed for the latest crisis. Of 1000 known intravenous drug users tested in Svetlogorsk, Belarus, 158 are HIV positive, with 20 results still outstanding. Previously, only 130 people in Belarus were known to be infected with HIV. In the Ukraine, where HIV testing has shown that over 5000 people are HIV positive and where a further 20,000 are estimated to be infected, a special subtype of HIV-1 has been discovered. In 1995 there were 1021 new cases of HIV infection, but in the first 4 months of this year there were 1805 new cases. Although the chief AIDS specialist at Russia's health ministry agrees that health education is more important than scare tactics against foreigners, in 1995 the health ministry received only 49% of the funds allocated for national AIDS education.

  3. The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics: recreational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Why did AIDS not rise and then decline exponentially owing to antiviral immunity like all other viral epidemics? Why is AIDS not contagious? Why would only HIV carriers get AIDS who use either recreational or anti-HIV drugs or are subject to malnutrition? Why is the mortality of HIV-antibody-positives treated with anti-HIV ...

  4. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  5. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  6. Management of the AIDS Epidemic and Local

    OpenAIRE

    Micollier, Évelyne

    2011-01-01

    In the context of a social and medical response to AIDS at a national level recommended by the Chinese authorities,  the policy of eventual extension of treatment to all patients reveals “Chinese characteristics” that are akin to  international concerns regarding the use of alternative and complementary medicine. One concerns the use of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), principally in combined treatment (biomedicine with Chinese medicine) in a public health system in which it plays a relati...

  7. [The HIV/AIDS epidemic and women in Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    del Río-Zolezzi, A; Liguori, A L; Magis-Rodríguez, C; Valdespino-Gómez, J L; García-García, M de L; Sepúlveda-Amor, J

    1995-01-01

    This study presents an analysis of AIDS cases and seroprevalence of HIV infection among Mexican women, from the onset of the epidemic through June 1994, as well as the analysis of the social and cultural factors that put women in a powerless situation regarding the adoption of preventive measures. Since 1985, when the first AIDS cases among women were reported in Mexico and until June 1, 1994, a total of 2,767 cases have been reported, representing 14.8% of the total number of cases. The first cases of AIDS among women were associated to infected blood transfusions; however, in 1986, heterosexually transmitted cases began to appear. Currently, only 35% of newly reported AIDS cases are associated to blood transfusions while 64% of them are related to heterosexual transmission. In fact, two epidemics are evident: one transmitted through blood, showing a downward trend (duplication time 45 months), and a second one, heterosexually transmitted, increasing twice as fast (duplication time 27 months). The latter is expected to dominate AIDS epidemiology among women in the future. In general, women are more vulnerable to HIV/AIDS biologically, but also socially and culturally. Women's economic, social and cultural subordination to their sexual partners results in a situation that makes it difficult for them to assess their infection risk and even more, to negotiate taking preventive measures. This situation is even more disadvantageous to rural women and, together with the recent trend of the AIDS epidemic to ruralization and with internal and international migration (temporary work force migration to the USA), can result in deep demographic and social effects. We conclude that it is necessary to work on the design and assessment of preventive measures under women's control, that empower them to protect themselves even without their partner's awareness. Also, it is necessary to promote sexual education among young heterosexual couples on how to talk about sexual issues and

  8. Women and AIDS in Zimbabwe: the making of an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, M T; Mhloyi, M

    1991-01-01

    As the AIDS epidemic in Africa assumes major proportions, the need to understand the social context in which heterosexual transmission occurs takes on urgent importance. In this article we explore how the intersection of traditional culture with the colonial legacy and present-day political economy has influenced family structure and sexual relations, and particularly the social position of women. Drawing on Zimbabwe's historical experience, we show how land expropriation, rural impoverishment, and the forcible introduction of male migrant labor fostered new patterns of sexual relations, characterized by multiple partners. Traditional patriarchal values reinterpreted in European law resulted in further subjugation of women as even limited rights to ownership were withdrawn. For many women, sexual relations with men, either within marriage (for the majority) or outside, become inextricably linked to economic and social survival. In this setting, all sexually transmitted diseases became rampant, including genital ulcer, which facilitates transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Intervention programs to halt the spread of AIDS need to take into the account the epidemic's historical roots and social nature. For example, efforts to reduce risk of HIV transmission should seek to expand women's limited options, both technically (e.g., by providing alternatives to condoms) and socially (e.g., by promoting employment).

  9. The History of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagaayi, Joseph; Serwadda, David

    2016-08-01

    HIV testing of African immigrants in Belgium showed that HIV existed among Africans by 1983. However, the epidemic was recognized much later in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to stigma and perceived fear of possible negative consequences to the countries' economies. This delay had devastating mortality, morbidity, and social consequences. In countries where earlier recognition occurred, political leadership was vital in mounting a response. The response involved establishment of AIDS control programs and research on the HIV epidemiology and candidate preventive interventions. Over time, the number of effective interventions has grown; the game changer being triple antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART has led to a rapid decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in addition to prevention of onward HIV transmission. Other effective interventions include safe male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, since none of these is sufficient by itself, delivering a combination package of these interventions is important for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.

  10. Why HIV/AIDS should be treated as exceptional: arguments from ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of AIDS Research ... The idea that HIV and AIDS gets too much attention and funding emerged in 2008 with a call to end 'AIDS exceptionalism.' This article outlines a short history of AIDS exceptionalism — the idea that HIV and AIDS require a response above and beyond 'normal' health interventions and is ...

  11. Smoking prevalence trends in Indigenous Australians, 1994-2004: a typical rather than an exceptional epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas David P

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In Australia, national smoking prevalence has successfully fallen below 20%, but remains about 50% amongst Indigenous Australians. Australian Indigenous tobacco control is framed by the idea that nothing has worked and a sense of either despondency or the difficulty of the challenge. Methods This paper examines the trends in smoking prevalence of Australian Indigenous men and women aged 18 and over in three large national cross-sectional surveys in 1994, 2002 and 2004. Results From 1994 to 2004, Indigenous smoking prevalence fell by 5.5% and 3.5% in non-remote and remote men, and by 1.9% in non-remote women. In contrast, Indigenous smoking prevalence rose by 5.7% in remote women from 1994 to 2002, before falling by 0.8% between 2002 and 2004. Male and female Indigenous smoking prevalences in non-remote Australia fell in parallel with those in the total Australian population. The different Indigenous smoking prevalence trends in remote and non-remote Australia can be plausibly explained by the typical characteristics of national tobacco epidemic curves, with remote Indigenous Australia just at an earlier point in the epidemic. Conclusion Reducing Indigenous smoking need not be considered exceptionally difficult. Inequities in the distribution of smoking related-deaths and illness may be reduced by increasing the exposure and access of Indigenous Australians, and other disadvantaged groups with high smoking prevalence, to proven tobacco control strategies.

  12. Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Factors affecting the HIV/AIDS epidemic: An ecological analysis of global data. ... Backward multiple linear regression analysis identified the proportion of Muslims, physicians density, and adolescent fertility rate are as the three most prominent factors linked with the national HIV epidemic. Conclusions: The findings support ...

  13. The Impact of HIV/AIDS Epidemic on the Choice of Specialties ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Impact of HIV/AIDS Epidemic on the Choice of Specialties among Medical ... satisfaction and favourable work schedule respectively. ... We recommend improvements in the work environment and adherence to universal precautions to

  14. From a global crisis to the 'end of AIDS': New epidemics of signification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kenworthy, Nora; Thomann, Matthew; Parker, Richard

    2017-08-22

    In the past decade, discourses about AIDS have taken a remarkable, and largely unquestioned, turn. Whereas mobilisations for treatment scale-up during the 2000s were premised on perceptions of an 'epidemic out of control', we have repeatedly been informed in more recent years that an end to AIDS is immanent. This new discourse and its resulting policies are motivated by post-recession financial pressures, a changing field of global institutions, and shifting health and development priorities. These shifts also reflect a biomedical triumphalism in HIV prevention and treatment, whereby shorter term, privatised, technological, and 'cost-effective' interventions are promoted over long-term support for antiretroviral treatment. To explore these changes, we utilise Treichler's [(1987). How to have theory in an epidemic: Cultural chronicles of AIDS. Durham, NC: Duke University Press] view of AIDS as an 'epidemic of signification' to develop a review of 'End of AIDS' discourses in recent years. We use this review to investigate the political and philanthropic interests served by efforts to rebrand and re-signify the epidemic. We also hold up these discourses against the realities of treatment access in resource-poor countries, where 'Ending AIDS' has not heralded the end of an epidemic per se, but rather the end of external support for treatment programmes, highlighting new difficulties for sustaining treatment in this new era of the epidemic.

  15. Bayesian projection of life expectancy accounting for the HIV/AIDS epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jessica Godwin

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: While probabilistic projection methods for projecting life expectancy exist, few account for covariates related to life expectancy. Generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics have a large, immediate negative impact on the life expectancy in a country, but this impact can be mitigated by widespread use of antiretroviral therapy (ART. Thus, projection methods for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics could be improved by accounting for HIV prevalence, the future course of the epidemic, and ART coverage. Methods: We extend the current Bayesian probabilistic life expectancy projection methods of Raftery et al. (2013 to account for HIV prevalence and adult ART coverage in countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics. Results: We evaluate our method using out-of-sample validation. We find that the proposed method performs better than the method that does not account for HIV prevalence or ART coverage for projections of life expectancy in countries with a generalized epidemic, while projections for countries without an epidemic remain essentially unchanged. Conclusions: In general, our projections show rapid recovery to pre-epidemic life expectancy levels in the presence of widespread ART coverage. After the initial life expectancy recovery, we project a steady rise in life expectancy until the end of the century. Contribution: We develop a simple Bayesian hierarchical model for long-term projections of life expectancy while accounting for HIV/AIDS prevalence and coverage of ART. The method produces well-calibrated projections for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics up to 2100 while having limited data demands.

  16. The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics: recreational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    also reported in Europe by the World Health Organization. (WHO), (Downs et al 1987). ..... nurse who has ever contracted AIDS (not just HIV) from the over 816,000 AIDS patients .... prevent or cure AIDS (Stolberg 2001). Due to the CDC's.

  17. Addressing Future Epidemics: Historical Human Rights Lessons from the AIDS Pandemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ambar Mehta

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The Ebola epidemic in West Africa sparked many ethical and polarizing public health questions on how to adequately control transmission of the virus. These deliberations had and will continue to influence patients, healthcare workers, public perceptions of disease, and governmental responses. Such extensive and potential ramifications warranted an analysis of prior epidemics to sufficiently inform policy makers and prepare them and other authorities for future epidemics. We analyzed how the general public, medical institutions, federal government, and patients themselves responded during the early stages of the AIDS pandemic in two different countries and cultures, the United States and India. Discussion: Our analysis identified four key findings pertaining to the human rights of patients and healthcare workers and to the crucial roles of the government and medical community. The first demands that authoritative officials acknowledge the presence of high-risk behaviors and properly educate the public without stigmatizing groups of individuals. For this task, the medical community and federal government must form and display to the public a respectful and collaborative partnership towards battling the epidemic. These two synergistic endeavors will then allow appropriate officials to implement effective, yet civil, interventions for limiting transmission. Finally, the same officials must ensure that their interventions maintain the human rights of high-risk populations and of healthcare workers. Conclusions: Applying these findings to future epidemics of infectious diseases can aid policy makers in navigating complicated ethical and public health questions, and help prevent them from repeating past mistakes in handling epidemics.

  18. The contributing role of tourism in the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orisatoki, R O; Oguntibeju, O O; Truter, E J

    2009-01-01

    The first confirmed case of HIV/AIDS in the Caribbean was reported in 1982, however a recent report by UNAIDS shows that the epidemic has risen to over 250,000 persons living with the virus with the highest prevalence rates shown to be in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Various factors ranging from commercial sex trading to unsafe injection employed for drug abuse have been identified to play a contributing role in this increase. Also, the role and impact of tourism on the spread of HIV infection has been reported. Due to concerns shown by countries and territories who are dependent on tourism and that they rank amongst the most highly affected by HIV/AIDS in the region, this paper endeavours to examine the impact of HIV/AIDS and the contributing role of tourism to HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Caribbean.

  19. Defining Moments in MMWR History: The AIDS Epidemic, Pneumocystis Pneumonia --- Los Angeles 1981

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    On June 5, 1981, MMWR published a report of Pneumocystis pneumonia in five previously healthy young gay men in Los Angeles, California. This report was later acknowledged as the first published account of what would become known as human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. It was the first of many MMWR reports that led to a better understanding of this new condition. In this podcast, Dr. Harold Jaffe recalls CDC's investigation and response to the AIDS Epidemic.

  20. [AIDS: the economy a victim of the epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    1989-12-11

    A recent World Bank report on development prospects in sub-Saharan Africa over the next decade contained analyses based on projected rapid population growth which failed to take into account the mortality and morbidity of AIDS. Since 1960 the annual rate of population growth for the sub-Saharan African population has increased from 2.5%-3.23%. The number of inhabitants has doubled since 1965 and may double again to 1 million by the year 2010. The World Bank recommended classic and relatively inexpensive measures to meet the challenge of population growth. The governments concerned should devote .8% of their gross national products to family planning programs and manpower training. The spread of AIDS however is likely to reduce population growth. 2 specialists concluded for example that demographic growth in Uganda will decline from 3.25% to -2.4% annually by 2020, with average life expectancy declining from 52 to 24 years. The figures must be interpreted cautiously because their statistical basis is imprecise. World Health Organization figures published in June 1989 showed only 24,886 of the 157,191 reported cases of AIDS as occurring in Africa. But in urban zones of some parts of Africa from 20-30% of the sexually active population is estimated to be infected. Some experts predict that during the 1990s AIDS will kill 300,000-1.5 million Africans. The World Bank report scarcely mentions AIDS. Although AIDS has fewer victims than dysentery, malaria, or tuberculosis, its economic impact is greater because it strikes the working age population. Policies to control HIV infections and AIDS run the risk of reducing funds available for economic investment. Increasing expenditures on medical treatment and hospitalization in household as well as government budgets will be made to the detriment of other priorities. Policies to prevent AIDS must be put into place so that this economic disaster can be averted. Information and distribution of condoms have become longterm

  1. Has the HIV/AIDS epidemic changed sexual behaviour of high risk ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Uganda, was the first country in sub-Saharan Africa to reverse its HIV/AIDS epidemic. Long distance drivers, prostitutes and barmaids have been identified as the groups that engage in risky sex, which promotes HIV transmission in Uganda and other countries across the continent. This paper investigates ...

  2. Socio-Demographic Variables Associated With Aids Epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development ... expectancy; literacy; female and male literacy; population increase; infant mortality; ... Significant association between AIDS-rate and life expectancy was only found for African males, while association with fertility, infant mortality, population density, and ...

  3. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba: description and tentative explanation of its low HIV prevalence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clémençon Stéphan

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The Cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic has the lowest prevalence rate of the Caribbean region. The objective of this paper is to give an overview of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Cuba and to explore the reasons for this low prevalence. Methods Data were obtained from the Cuban HIV/AIDS programme established in 1983. This programme has an extensive adult HIV testing policy, including testing of all pregnant women. HIV and AIDS cases have been recorded since 1986. Persons found to be HIV-positive are interviewed on their sexual behaviour and partners. Tracing and voluntary testing of these partners are organised. Epidemiological description of this epidemic was obtained from analysis of this data set. Using elementary mathematical analyses, we estimated the coverage of the detection system (percentage of HIV-positive adults detected and the average period between HIV infection and detection. Estimated HIV prevalence rates were corrected to account for the coverage. Results HIV prevalence has increased since 1996. In 2005, the prevalence among pregnant women was 1.2 per 10,000 (16/137000. Estimated HIV prevalence among 15- to 49-year-olds was 8.1 per 10,000 (4913/6065000; 95%CI: 7.9 per 10,000 – 8.3 per 10,000. Most (77% of the HIV-positive adults were men, most (85.1% of the detected HIV-positive men were reported as having sex with men (MSM, and most of the HIV-positive women reported having had sex with MSM. The average period between HIV infection and detection was estimated to be 2.1 years (IQR = 1.7 – 2.2 years. We estimated that, for the year 2005, 79.6% (IQR: 77.3 – 81.4% of the HIV-positive persons were detected. Conclusion MSM drive the HIV epidemic in Cuba. The extensive HIV testing policy may be an important factor in explaining the low HIV prevalence. To reduce the HIV epidemic in Cuba, the epidemic among MSM should be addressed. To understand this epidemic further, data on sexual behaviour should be collected. Now that

  4. Radiotherapy of epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma in patients with AIDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Westermann, V.A.; Mueller, R.P.; Adler, M.; Bendick, C.; Rasokat, H.

    1990-01-01

    From August 1986 to May 1989, 15 patients suffering from Kaposi's sarcoma and serologically proven HIV infections were treated in the Department of Radiotherapy, University of Cologne, Medical Hospital. All patients were male and homosexual. Therapeutic objectives were palliation of pain and functional impairment as well as elimination of the cosmetically disturbing Kaposi's sarcoma. 68 localizations (facial skin, torso, extremities, sole of the foot, penis, oral mucosa and oropharynx) were irradiated. Depending on the individual therapy regimen, photons or high-energy electrons up to a total dose of 26 to 40 Gy, with single doses of 1.8 to 2.5 Gy were applied four to five times a week. In 66% of the cases, complete remission was achieved within the area of irradiation at the dermal or mucosal level, with at most a discrete residual pigmentation of the cluster remaining. Partial remission with at least 50% regression or a distinctive residual pigmentation was achieved in 31%. In 3% of the cases, a less than 50% regression of the Kaposi's lesions were achieved after radiotherapy. There were five local recurrences. Treatment with radiation is an effective local therapy in epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma and yields good functional and cosmetic results and also provides relief from pain. (orig.) [de

  5. Halting HIV/AIDS with avatars and havatars: a virtual world approach to modelling epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smith? Robert J

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A major deficit of all approaches to epidemic modelling to date has been the need to approximate or guess at human behaviour in disease-transmission-related contexts. Avatars are generally human-like figures in virtual computer worlds controlled by human individuals. Methods We introduce the concept of a "havatar", which is a (human, avatar pairing. Evidence is mounting that this pairing behaves in virtual contexts much like the human in the pairing might behave in analogous real-world contexts. Results We propose that studies of havatars, in a virtual world, may give a realistic approximation of human behaviour in real-world contexts. If the virtual world approximates the real world in relevant details (geography, transportation, etc., virtual epidemics in that world could accurately simulate real-world epidemics. Havatar modelling of epidemics therefore offers a complementary tool for tackling how best to halt epidemics, including perhaps HIV/AIDS, since sexual behaviour is a significant component of some virtual worlds, such as Second Life. Conclusion Havatars place the control parameters of an epidemic in the hands of each individual. By providing tools that everyone can understand and use, we could democratise epidemiology.

  6. Culture, myths and panic: Three decades and beyond with an HIV/AIDS epidemic in Zimbabwe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chingwaru, Walter; Vidmar, Jerneja

    2018-02-01

    Zimbabwe is going through a generalised acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. The first five years of the epidemic (1985-1990) were characterised by lack of medicines against human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), and an exponential increase in prevalence (65-fold) and incidence (13-fold), which were fuelled by high-risk sexual behaviour. The high HIV prevalence, mortality and stigma yielded great fear and panic in the population, which are thought to have led to confusion and hopelessness, and, in turn, increased risky sexual behaviour. The country's government and civil society embarked on HIV awareness campaigns that are claimed to have played a central role in slowing down the epidemic since the mid-2000s. HIV-related mortality then fell by 70% between 2003 and 2013, which is attributed to high uptake of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and prevention of mother-to-child transmission (95%) prophylaxis. However, the epidemic has been characterised by a low paediatric ART coverage (35% in 2011 to 46.12% in 2013). Year 2014 saw an increase in adolescent and young adult HIV prevalence, which may be signalling a rebound of the epidemic. A more holistic approach which deals with the epidemic in its socio-political context is required to effectively lower the country's HIV burden.

  7. Bayesian conditional-independence modeling of the AIDS epidemic in England and Wales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilks, Walter R.; De Angelis, Daniela; Day, Nicholas E.

    We describe the use of conditional-independence modeling, Bayesian inference and Markov chain Monte Carlo, to model and project the HIV-AIDS epidemic in homosexual/bisexual males in England and Wales. Complexity in this analysis arises through selectively missing data, indirectly observed underlying processes, and measurement error. Our emphasis is on presentation and discussion of the concepts, not on the technicalities of this analysis, which can be found elsewhere [D. De Angelis, W.R. Gilks, N.E. Day, Bayesian projection of the the acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic (with discussion), Applied Statistics, in press].

  8. Defining Moments in MMWR History: The AIDS Epidemic, Pneumocystis Pneumonia --- Los Angeles 1981

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2017-12-01

    On June 5, 1981, MMWR published a report of Pneumocystis pneumonia in five previously healthy young gay men in Los Angeles, California. This report was later acknowledged as the first published account of what would become known as human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. It was the first of many MMWR reports that led to a better understanding of this new condition. In this podcast, Dr. Harold Jaffe recalls CDC’s investigation and response to the AIDS Epidemic.  Created: 12/1/2017 by MMWR.   Date Released: 12/1/2017.

  9. Epidemics and agendas: the politics of nightly news coverage of AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colby, D C; Cook, T E

    1991-01-01

    We examine why the exponential growth of AIDS cases or the wide-spread professional perception of a health crisis did not move the epidemic more quickly onto the agenda of public problems. One possible explanation focuses on how the national news media's construction of AIDS shaped the meaning of the epidemic for mass and elite audiences. An examination of nightly news coverage by the three major networks from 1982 to 1989 reveals considerable variability and volatility in their coverage. Topic-driven saturation coverage occurred only during three short periods in 1983, 1985, and 1987, when the epidemic seemed likely to affect the "general population". Only at such moments did public opinion shift and discussion and debate in government begin. Otherwise, the typical AIDS story tended less to sensationalize than to reassure, largely because journalists depended upon government officials and high-ranking doctors to present them with evidence of news. Such sources had interests either in avoiding coverage or in pointing toward breakthroughs; more critical sources, especially within the gay movement, had far less access to the news. In concluding, we considered the prospects and pitfalls of the news media's power to shape the public agenda.

  10. Interplay Between Hiv/aids Epidemics and Demographic Structures Based on Sexual Contact Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Tao; Wang, Bing-Hong

    In this article, we propose a network spreading model for HIV epidemics, wherein each individual is represented by a node of the transmission network and the edges are the connections between individuals along which the infection may spread. The sexual activity of each individual, measured by its degree, is not homogeneous but obeys a power-law distribution. Due to the heterogeneity of activity, the infection can persistently exist at a very low prevalence, which has been observed in the real data but cannot be illuminated by previous models with homogeneous mixing hypothesis. The model displays a clear picture of hierarchical spread: In the early stage the infection is adhered to these high-risk persons, and then, diffuses toward low-risk population. Furthermore, we find that to reduce the risky behaviors is much more effective in the fight against HIV/AIDS rather than the antiretroviral drug therapies. The prediction results show that the development of epidemics can be roughly categorized into three patterns for different countries, and the pattern of a given country is mainly determined by the average sex-activity and transmission probability per sexual partner. In most cases, the effect of HIV epidemics on demographic structure is very small. However, for some extremely countries, like Botswana, the number of sex-active people can be depressed to nearly a half by AIDS.

  11. Analysis: AIDS and the private sector. Tolerance at work will soften epidemic's impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barese, P

    1995-06-01

    With a population of only 1.3 million, Botswana relies heavily upon imported skilled labor and management. Officially, all forms of discrimination based upon a citizen's HIV/AIDS status are illegal in Botswana. The government, however, screens all expatriates considered for contractual jobs with the state, and does not employ HIV-seropositive candidates. Recent government efforts to train local people to replace expatriates and diversify and expand the economy by supporting local business and encouraging foreign investment may, however, be seriously jeopardized by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The development and implementation of prevention and coping strategies, especially at the workplace, have been slow even though AIDS-in-the-Workplace program materials, including videos, posters, brochures, and condoms, are provided free of charge. The lack of a clear understanding by senior management of the legal and financial ramifications of the HIV/AIDS epidemic is one reason for the widespread nonuse by companies of the materials. AIDSCAP in Botswana recently reviewed the activities of four companies which had, however, developed model AIDS-in-the-Workplace programs. Three of the companies chose a peer education model, holding regular formal education sessions as well as informal small group sessions run by peer educators. The peer educators have as much time during their work day as they need to work upon HIV/AIDS activities. The other company has a health department which holds a formal prevention education session for all employees yearly, while clinics in the on-site employee housing complex provide continuous information on women's health, prenatal and infant care as it relates to HIV/AIDS, and negotiating safer sex. Management reports that employees seem to have responded well to the programs, but changing their attitudes toward infected colleagues is proving more difficult. The author notes that managers over time will also have to begin thinking about training

  12. «Dallas Buyers Club (2013» clinical research with drugs for the AIDS epidemic 80

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marian de HAAN-BOSCH

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Dallas Buyers Club (2013, inspired by true events, tells the story of Ron Woodroof, a middle?aged elec? trician from Dallas (Texas, who is diagnosed with AIDS in 1985. With few treatment options, he estab? lishes the Dallas Buyers Club in order to provide unapproved drugs to the AIDS community. This results in constant business travels, disputes with the FDA and problems with the law and the IRS. The article analyzes the buyers’ clubs phenomenon in the US, the drugs cited in the film and the clinical trial with zidovudine shown in the movie. The film could be useful as a teaching tool providing an introduction to the AIDS epidemic, clinical research and drug development, bioethics of human research and the agen? cies that regulate drug approval and their availability. Finally, the article presents a possible guideline for the use of the film in a teaching environment.

  13. Using existing health care systems to respond to the AIDS epidemic: research and recommendations for Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aiken, L H; Smith, H L; Lake, E T

    1997-01-01

    Chile is a country with a relatively low prevalence of HIV infection, where successful prevention has the potential to change the future course of the epidemic. A controversial national prevention strategy based upon public education has emerged in response to characterizations of the epidemic as well-dispersed with a growing involvement of heterosexuals. This characterization is not consistent with the observed facts. There is a comparatively well-organized health care system in Santiago that is doing a good job of detecting HIV infection and already has in place the elements of a targeted intervention scheme. Chile should place priority on the use of the existing health care infrastructure for implementing both the traditional public health interventions for sexually transmitted diseases (contact tracing and partner notification) and the AIDS-necessitated strategy of focused counseling and education.

  14. Research Notes ~ Combating HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Nigeria: Responses from National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terhemba Nom Ambe-Uva

    2007-11-01

    Full Text Available Universities have come under serious attack because of their lackluster response to HIV/AIDS. This article examines the response of National Open University of Nigeria (NOUN and its strategic responses in combating HIV/AIDS epidemic. This is achieved by examining NOUN’s basic structures that position the University to respond to the epidemic; and second, by assessing HIV/AIDS strategies and policy framework the University has put in place. An interpretative epistemological stance was used for this study, and a qualitative research involving focus group discussion (FGD and analysis of secondary data was carried out. Results showed that NOUN has identified the impact the epidemic has on the university, although it has yet to institutionalize an HIV/AIDS policy. NOUN’s Draft Service Charter, however, has identified the fight against HIV/AIDS as a core mandate of the University, and the introduction of HIV/AIDS certification programs can be viewed as proactive policies in response to the epidemic. Results of this study are discussed in terms of their relevance to future research and the impact such policy frameworks may have on combating the epidemic, both within the University and the wider community.

  15. [Facing the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Mexico: the response of the health sector].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gutiérrez, Juan Pablo; López-Zaragoza, José Luis; Valencia-Mendoza, Atanacio; Pesqueira, Eduardo; Ponce-de-León, Samuel; Bertozzi, Stefano M

    2004-01-01

    To analyze the challenges and accomplishments of the Mexican health system as it faced the HIV/AIDS epidemic over the 20 years since discovery of the virus. A review of the relevant literature was done. The topics revised were: HIV/AIDS epidemiology, the early response of the health system and civil society, prevention and risk behaviors, care and treatment, and financing and resources allocation. In Mexico a rapid initial public response surely contributed to containing any early spread of the epidemic to select populations; whether that spread will continue to be contained is an open question. Sexual risk practices remain high not only among traditional risk populations but also among youth. Even though the epidemic remains concentrated in Mexico, principally among MSM and IDU, only 13% of public HIV prevention funds are directed to key populations at especially high risk of becoming infected or infecting others. In recent years antiretroviral coverage has increased rapidly with funding increasing from 30 to 367 million pesos from 2001 to 2003 and coverage now approaching 100%. Of all health spending on HIV/AIDS in the public sector, 82.4% is spent by the social security institutes and 17.6% by the Ministry of Health. The former provides medical care to about half of PLHA while the latter, in addition to caring for the other half, supports the large majority of prevention expenses. One of the challenges faced by the health system which has largely achieved universal antiretroviral coverage is how to provide quality care with appropriate monitoring, promotion of adherence and recognition and treatment of resistance and adverse effects--without dramatically increasing costs.

  16. The AIDS epidemic and economic input impact factors in Chongqing, China, from 2006 to 2012: a spatial-temporal analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanqi; Xiao, Qin; Zhou, Liang; Ma, Dihui; Liu, Ling; Lu, Rongrong; Yi, Dali; Yi, Dong

    2015-03-27

    To analyse the spatial-temporal clustering of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Chongqing and to explore its association with the economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment. Data on the HIV/AIDS epidemic and economic indices of AIDS prevention and treatment were obtained from the annual reports of the Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control for 2006-2012. Spatial clustering analysis, temporal-spatial clustering analysis, and spatial regression were used to conduct statistical analysis. The annual average new HIV infection rate, incidence rate for new AIDS cases, and rate of people living with HIV in Chongqing were 5.97, 2.42 and 28.12 per 100,000, respectively, for 2006-2012. The HIV/AIDS epidemic showed a non-random spatial distribution (Moran's I≥0.310; p<0.05). The epidemic hotspots were distributed in the 15 mid-western counties. The most likely clusters were primarily located in the central region and southwest of Chongqing and occurred in 2010-2012. The regression coefficients of the total amount of special funds allocated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit for the numbers of new HIV cases, new AIDS cases, and people living with HIV were 0.775, 0.976 and 0.816, and -0.188, -0.259 and -0.215 (p<0.002), respectively. The Chongqing HIV/AIDS epidemic showed temporal-spatial clustering and was mainly clustered in the mid-western and south-western counties, showing an upward trend over time. The amount of special funds dedicated to AIDS and to the public awareness unit showed positive and negative relationships with HIV/AIDS spatial clustering, respectively. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  17. Impact of HIV/aids epidemic on human capital development in West Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dauda, Rasaki Stephen

    2018-01-12

    West Africa occupies the third position with respect to the burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) globally, after Southern and East Africa. About 5 million adults and children are infected with the disease in the subregion, while HIV prevalence in the general population hovers around 2% and 5%. This paper attempts to investigate the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic on human capital development in 11 West African countries over the period 1990 to 2011. The study used a dynamic panel data modeling approach, using first difference, difference generalized methods of moment, and system generalized methods of moment estimating techniques. Four measures of HIV/AIDS and 2 human capital measures were used in the study. The findings revealed that HIV/AIDS pandemic had negative and significant impact on human capital in West Africa. However, the statistical significance was more pronounced on life expectancy (a measure of human capital), while the negative impact on school enrolment (another human capital measure) was not significant. It is therefore recommended that the spread of HIV/AIDS disease in West Africa should be effectively controlled, while the number of infected persons undergoing antiretroviral therapy in the subregion should be increased to a near 100% coverage. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Women's rights and women's health during HIV/AIDS epidemics: the experience of women in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugassa, Begna F

    2009-08-01

    Twenty-five years have passed since HIV/AIDS was recognized as a major public health problem. Although billions of dollars are spent in research and development, we still have no medical cure or vaccination. In the early days of the epidemic, public health slogans suggested that HIV/AIDS does not discriminate. Now it is becoming clear that HIV/AIDS spreads most rapidly among poor, marginalized, women, colonized, and disempowered groups of people more than others. The HIV/AIDS epidemic is exacerbated by the social, economic, political, and cultural conditions of societies such as gender, racial, class, and other forms of inequalities. Sub-Saharan African countries are severely hit by HIV/AIDS. For these countries the pandemic of HIV/AIDS demands the need to travel extra miles. My objective in this article is to promote the need to go beyond the biomedical model of "technical fixes" and the traditional public health education tools, and come up with innovative ideas and strategic thinking to contain the epidemic. In this article, I argue that containing the HIV/AIDS epidemic and improving family and community health requires giving appropriate attention to the social illnesses that are responsible for exacerbating biological disorders.

  19. The third therapeutic system: faith healing strategies in the context of a generalized AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manglos, Nicolette D; Trinitapoli, Jenny

    2011-03-01

    Faith healing in sub-Saharan Africa has primarily been studied qualitatively among Pentecostal-Charismatic groups, and considered as its own phenomenon with little attention to its relationship to other modes of healing. Using data from Malawi, a religiously diverse African country with high HIV prevalence, we find that faith healing is pervasive across multiple religious traditions. For individuals, attending a faith healing congregation is associated with lower levels of generalized worry about AIDS, and this association is driven by those who switched churches before AIDS became widespread in rural areas. Use of condoms and traditional medicine are, on the other hand, positively associated with worry about AIDS. We argue that faith healing can be understood as a third therapeutic system that coexists with the well-documented biomedical and traditional systems. The success of faith healing approaches lies in their unique ability to combine individual-pragmatic and communal-ritualized aspects of healing to inform interpretations of the AIDS epidemic and its consequences.

  20. Revisiting the AIDS Epidemic in Pakistan: Where We Stand and What We Must Aim For.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dar, Hamza Arshad; Mubashir, Areeba; Adil, Manal; Farzeen, Aiman; Naseer, Hasaan; Ayub, Gohar; Mansoor, Sajid; Javed, Aneela

    2017-10-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) is the major cause of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in humans, where the immune system totally succumbs to the virus. A large proportion of the AIDS infected belong to developing countries and AIDS prevalence is intensified by severe poverty, malnutrition, and famine; fatal illnesses with a scorn shortage of medical amenities complemented with the lack of education and development. Current Pakistani health system setting is in a dire need of improvement. Low literacy rates, high birth rates, and associated maternal mortality plus a lack of clean drinking water and appropriate sanitation system have a serious impact on general living conditions contributing to a relatively short lifespan. HIV is, therefore, becoming a growing health concern in Pakistan with a rapid rise in the reported cases. AIDS is most prevalent among injection drug users (IDUs), male/female sex workers, and unchecked deported migrant workforce. To combat this virus, the Pakistan Government has been working hard over the past few years with local bodies and international organizations in an effort to combat this menace. This review aims to discuss the risk factors for the rise of this epidemic in the country and the recommendations, efforts to be done to address this alarming issue.

  1. The Third Therapeutic System: Faith Healing Strategies in the Context of a Generalized AIDS Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manglos, Nicolette D.; Trinitapoli, Jenny

    2014-01-01

    Faith healing in sub-Saharan Africa has primarily been studied qualitatively among Pentecostal-Charismatic groups, and considered as its own phenomenon with little attention to its relationship to other modes of healing. Using data from Malawi, a religiously diverse African country with high HIV prevalence, we find that faith healing is pervasive across multiple religious traditions. For individuals, attending a faith healing congregation is associated with lower levels of generalized worry about AIDS, and this association is driven by those who switched churches before AIDS became widespread in rural areas. Use of condoms and traditional medicine are, on the other hand, positively associated with worry about AIDS. We argue that faith healing can be understood as a third therapeutic system that coexists with the well-documented biomedical and traditional systems. The success of faith healing approaches lies in their unique ability to combine individual-pragmatic and communal-ritualized aspects of healing to inform interpretations of the AIDS epidemic and its consequences. PMID:21362615

  2. Trends in three decades of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand by nonparametric backcalculation method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Punyacharoensin, Narat; Viwatwongkasem, Chukiat

    2009-06-01

    To reconstruct the past HIV incidence and prevalence in Thailand from 1980 to 2008 and predict the country's AIDS incidence from 2009 to 2011. Nonparametric backcalculation was adopted utilizing 100 quarterly observed new AIDS counts excluding pediatric cases. The accuracy of data was enhanced through a series of data adjustments using the weight method to account for several surveillance reporting issues. The mixture of time-dependent distributions allowed the effects of age at seroconversion and antiretroviral therapy to be incorporated simultaneously. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess model variations that were subject to major uncertainties. Future AIDS incidence was projected for various predetermined HIV incidence patterns. HIV incidence in Thailand reached its peak in 1992 with approximately 115,000 cases. A steep decline thereafter discontinued in 1997 and was followed by another strike of 42,000 cases in 1999. The second surge, which happened concurrently with the major economic crisis, brought on 60,000 new infections. As of December 2008, more than 1 million individuals had been infected and around 430,000 adults were living with HIV corresponding to a prevalence rate of 1.2%. The incidence rate had become less than 0.1% since 2002. The backcalculated estimates were dominated by postulated median AIDS progression time and adjustments to surveillance data. Our analysis indicated that, thus far, the 1990s was the most severe era of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Thailand with two HIV incidence peaks. A drop in new infections led to a decrease in recent AIDS incidence, and this tendency is likely to remain unchanged until 2011, if not further.

  3. Shift in HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Southeastern China: A Longitudinal Study from 1987 to 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yansheng; Wu, Shouli; Chen, Liang; Yan, Pingping; Qiu, Yuefeng; Xie, Meirong; Wang, Zhenghua; Lin, Xun

    2016-08-06

    study period, and CRF01-AE and CRF07-BC intersubtype recombinant forms were predominant; however, a declining trend in the proportion of HIV-1 CRF01-AE recombinant virus and a significant rise in the proportion of HIV-1 CRF07-BC recombinant virus were observed. Over 90% HIV inhibition was found in all cases receiving antiretroviral therapy during the period from 2011 to 2015, indicating a low prevalence of HIV drug resistance. An increasing trend is still observed in the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Fujian Province, southeastern China. However, the epidemiological pattern of HIV/AIDS has recently changed in the province, and effective control interventions targeting the shift in the epidemiological features of HIV/AIDS should therefore be implemented to control the spread of the epidemic.

  4. A case for critical ethnography: rethinking the early years of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassin, Didier

    2013-12-01

    The epidemic of AIDS in South Africa has been characterized not only by its rapid progression but also its impassioned controversies. Retrospectively examining a long-term anthropological project and discussing some reactions it elicited, the paper proposes a defense and illustration of a critical ethnography at three moments of the research. Ethnography is first discussed as fieldworks, proposing an alternative to the horizontal multi-sited approach via a vertical multi-layered method using various scales and locations, and thus connecting the disease endured by patients in townships and former homelands with the heated debates in scientific and political forums: this procedure substitutes a political economy of the disease for its cultural and behavioral interpretations. Ethnography is then discussed as writing, suggesting acknowledgment of the social intelligence of the agents as well as the need for a scientific distance: this principle allows the articulation of the objective historical condition of the individuals and their subjective experience of history, both revealed in the development of the epidemic. Ultimately ethnography is considered from the perspective of its afterlife, that is, the continuous process of its translation by readers and commentators, on the one hand, by the author trying to reach beyond the boundaries of the academic realm, on the other, the work of anthropology appearing as a living object open to public conversation and consequently a resource for knowledge and action. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the Dominican Republic: Key Contributing Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Patria; Malow, Robert; Ruffin, Beverly; Rothe, Eugenio M; Rosenberg, Rhonda

    2011-01-01

    This article reviews HIV/AIDS epidemiological data and recent research conducted in the Dominican Republic, with a focus on explaining the variability in estimated seroincidence and prevalence within the country. HIV seroprevalence estimates range from 1.0% (in the general population) to 11.0% among men who have sex with men (MSM). Some have indicated that the highest HIV seroprevalence occurs in Haitian enclaves called bateyes (US Agency for International Development [USAID], 2008), which are migrant worker shantytowns primarily serving the sugar industry in the Dominican Republic. Others report higher or comparable rates to the bateyes in areas related to the tourism and sex industries. As in other Caribbean and Latin American countries, reported HIV transmission in the Dominican Republic is predominantly due to unprotected heterosexual sex and the infection rate has been increasing disproportionally among women. The Dominican Republic represents two thirds of the Hispaniola island; the western one third is occupied by Haiti, the nation with the highest HIV prevalence in the western hemisphere. Although data is limited, it shows important differences in seroprevalence and incidence between these two countries, but commonalities such as poverty, gender inequalities, and stigma appear to be pivotal factors driving the epidemic. This article will discuss these and other factors that may contribute to the HIV epidemic in the Dominican Republic, as well as highlight the gaps in the literature and provide recommendations to guide further work in this area, particularly in the role of governance in sustainable HIV prevention.

  6. Stability analysis of an HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cai, Liming; Li, Xuezhi; Ghosh, Mini; Guo, Baozhu

    2009-07-01

    An HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment is investigated. The model allows for some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase by all sorts of treatment methods. We first establish the ODE treatment model with two infective stages. Mathematical analyses establish that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV infectious disease are completely determined by the basic reproduction number [real]0. If [real]01. Then, we introduce a discrete time delay to the model to describe the time from the start of treatment in the symptomatic stage until treatment effects become visible. The effect of the time delay on the stability of the endemically infected equilibrium is investigated. Moreover, the delay model exhibits Hopf bifurcations by using the delay as a bifurcation parameter. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the results.

  7. Rationale for an HIV / AIDS prevention and mitigation strategy for Africa: combatting the multisectoral impact of the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyerly, W H

    1996-01-01

    Unlike most infectious diseases in Africa, HIV/AIDS affects the urban elite as well as the rural poor, and generally during their most economically productive years. An increase in deaths among young adults of the magnitude predicted is likely to have substantial adverse effects on economic, political, and military/security stability throughout Africa. AIDS is causing increased stress on fragile African economic infrastructures as labor productivity declines, particularly in agricultural, labor-dependent economies. AIDS is causing obstacles to trade, foreign investment and tourism. Health systems and social coping mechanisms already are overburdened. High rates of HIV infection among police and military personnel threaten internal security. Furthermore, the demobilization of military forces in Africa may exacerbate the epidemic when HIV-infected soldiers return home and spread the virus. This presentation will illustrate why African AIDS Programs must be expanded to mitigate the multisectoral impact of the epidemic while preserving its spread.

  8. Geographic expression of AIDS epidemic in Campinas, Southeastern Brazil, between 1980 and 2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephan, Celso; Henn, Carlos Alberto; Donalisio, Maria Rita

    2010-10-01

    To analyze the spatial distribution of reported AIDS cases in adults and its association with living conditions in the city of Campinas, Southeastern Brazil. Data on AIDS cases in men (n=2,945) and women (n=1,230) aged more than 13 years and living in Campinas, recorded in the SINAN (Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases), were used to map the spatial distribution of this disease and the male:female ratio. Maps were constructed for the following periods: from 1980 to 1995, from 1996 to 2000, and from 2001 to 2005. The variables included in the analysis were address, sex and age. A weighted composite index was used to study living and health conditions in the area. Patients' home addresses were geocoded on a cartographic base, after correction and standardization according to a reference database of streets. A generalized additive model was adjusted to analyze the spatial distribution of the ratio of male:female cases in space, in the three study periods. The ratio of male:female cases was higher in areas with better living conditions (central) and around the prison (northwestern), where families of prisoners and former prisoners live temporarily, while this ratio was lower in the city suburbs (southwestern). The trends towards the AIDS epidemic affecting more women and poorer individuals were confirmed by the decrease in the ratio of male:female cases in the period, particularly in vulnerable and impoverished populations. Geographic information systems and spatial data analysis can be useful for AIDS control and surveillance actions.

  9. Contextualising the emergence and impacts of the AIDS epidemic on rural livelihoods and household food security in Masaka, Uganda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tumwine, Jackson

    2018-01-01

    This thesis aims to contribute to current debates on the impact of the AIDS epidemic on the livelihoods and food and nutrition security of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. Over the last 20 years, numerous studies have been conducted on this subject. Although these studies have generated a

  10. When Statistical Literacy Really Matters: Understanding Published Information about the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobden, Sally

    2014-01-01

    Information on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Southern Africa is often interpreted through a veil of secrecy and shame and, I argue, with flawed understanding of basic statistics. This research determined the levels of statistical literacy evident in 316 future Mathematical Literacy teachers' explanations of the median in the context of HIV/AIDS…

  11. [HIV/AIDS in South Africa and Haiti: the failure of epidemic governance and achievement of the MDGs].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thelot, Fils-Lien Ely

    2009-01-01

    Since their adoption in 2000 by the United Nations, the Millennium Development Goals set for 2015 appear to have become a part of the policy agenda of all of the member states. Three of these eight objectives deal with health issues. "Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases": this is the formulation of the sixth MDG. Observing that in many countries strongly affected by poverty and inequalities, the epidemic continues to spread, without really reversing at all, and that access to antiretrovirals is possible for only a small proportion of the patient who need them, we consider the problems of global governance in the field of health. Our intention is to explain that the failure to deal with the HIV/AIDS epidemic may constitute an obstacle to the achievement of the MDGs by 2015. Proposing a comprehensive sociology of HIV/AIDS, this article pays special attention to the dimension of the meaning of the disease, simultaneously as a policy issue, a social construction, and an object of study in the social sciences. Looking at the two countries most affected by the epidemic in Africa and in the Caribbean, we examine the different aspects that have determined the failure of governance and the effects of this failure on the populations concerned. The excessive conflictuality in South Africa and the biopolitics of "let them die" and the fragmentation of the networks involved in the combat in Haiti are considered to have contributed to a crisis in the epidemic's governance. In both cases, the consequences have been expressed by a reduced life expectancy, insufficient access to antiretroviral drugs, reinforcement of the socioeconomic inequalities of health, the production of new pockets of poverty, more fragile household and national economies, an increase in maternal and child mortality ... The failure of the governance of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries such as Haiti and South Africa appears to foretell the impossibility of achieving the MDGs by 2015.

  12. Voices from the Frontlines: The Epidemics of HIV/AIDS and Violence among Women and Girls

    Science.gov (United States)

    TEITELMAN, ANNE M.; SELOILWE, ESTHER S.; CAMPBELL, JACQUELYN C.

    2011-01-01

    The papers in this special issue focus on the topic of violence against women. This group of scholarly works explores theoretical issues, context and health care interventions pertaining to violence in women’s lives. In conjunction with this special issue, this editorial provides a synopsis of presentations and discussions about the topic of the intersections of gender-based violence, HIV and the girl child that took place in July 2008 as part of the 17th conference of International Council of Women’s Health Issues (ICOWHI) held in Gaborone, Botswana, focusing on the Girl Child. ICOWHI, in conjunction with the University of Botswana, Centre for the Study of HIV and AIDS (CSHA) sponsored a one day preconference on “Gender-based violence and HIV Risk among Adolescent Girls.” A diverse interdisciplinary group of scholars from around the world closely examined these interconnected epidemics in a rich day long discussion. The aim of the preconference as well as the articles in this special issue is to build scholarship and inform practice of cultural and contextual factors as they pertain to violence in the lives of women and girls in order to promote their health, safety and well-being globally. PMID:19191112

  13. Emerging health disparities in Botswana: examining the situation of orphans during the AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Candace Marie; Gruskin, Sofia; Subramanian, S V; Heymann, Jody

    2007-06-01

    Botswana has the second highest HIV prevalence rate and highest rate of orphanhood in the world. Although child mortality rates have doubled in 15 years, the extent to which health disparities are connected to orphan status remains unclear. We conducted an analysis of the 2000 Botswana Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey to examine whether orphan-based health disparities exist. We measured health inequalities using anthropometric data among 2723 under-five year olds, nested in 1854 households, and 208 communities. We calculated multilevel logistic regression models to estimate the child, household, and regional determinants of growth failure. We found that orphaned children aged 0-4 are 49% more likely to be underweight than nonorphans (ppoverty and other factors; and orphans disproportionately live in the poorest households. Throughout sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Botswana is a leader in responding to the AIDS epidemic, in particular as one of the first countries to offer universal antiretroviral treatment. However, orphan-based health disparities confirm that the orphan response is still insufficient. Better data are needed to fully understand the mechanisms that lead to these disparities, and the public sector needs an increased capacity to fully implement the policies and programs designed to meet the needs of orphans. Findings from this study have important implications for countries throughout SSA, and Southern Africa in particular, where the number of orphans has doubled to tripled over the past 15 years.

  14. [AIDS in Russia. It is still possible to stop the epidemic. Interview with Dr. A.P. Koslov].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertrand, P

    1996-01-01

    According to A.P. Koslov, president of the Fourth International Conference on AIDS, Cancer, and Associated Diseases held in Russia in 1996, the conference represents the first high level discussion of AIDS risk management in Russia. Russia has a strong potential for development of a vaccine, having been a key player in the smallpox eradication program in the late 1950s. Conditions are difficult at present, but it is possible that Russia will be able to develop a practical vaccine for distribution in the Third World. Efforts to develop an HIV vaccine underway in different countries have been examined, and a list has been compiled of Russian institutions able to participate in HIV vaccine development. International assistance for vaccine development in Russia would help both the medical establishment in Russia, which has suffered because of the economic and social crisis, and the international community. A meeting is planned for December 1996 in St. Petersburg to organize an AIDS control organization for all of Russia. Mobilization of support for AIDS prevention activities is necessary but very difficult. If nothing is done, the epidemic in Ukraine will soon spread to Russia. But Russia and China are among the few countries where an HIV epidemic could still be prevented or stopped. The association in St. Petersburg cooperates with other former Soviet republics in AIDS control activities, although attendance at international meetings and conferences is frequently curtailed for financial reasons.

  15. Religious and cultural traits in HIV/AIDS epidemics in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velayati, Ali-Akbar; Bakayev, Valerii; Bahadori, Moslem; Tabatabaei, Seyed-Javad; Alaei, Arash; Farahbood, Amir; Masjedi, Mohammad-Reza

    2007-10-01

    The pandemic of HIV/AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa and the rise of epidemics in Asia to the previously unforeseen level are likely to have global social, economic, and political impacts. In this emergency, it is vital to reappraise the weight of powerful religious and cultural factors in spreading the disease. The role of Islam in shaping values, norms, and public policies in North African states is to be appreciated for the lowest HIV prevalence in their populations. Yet, the place of religion in prevention of the disease diffusion is not fully understood nor worldwide acknowledged by the primary decision makers. Another topic, which has received little attention to date, despite the abundance of literature concerning the unfortunate Africa's anti-AIDS campaign, is an issue of colonial past. To better comprehend the share of both traits in diverse spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, we studied the correlation between Muslim and Christian proportions in the state's population and HIV rate. By this method, Muslim percentage came out as a potential predictor of HIV prevalence in a given state. In another approach, most subcontinental countries were clustered by colocalization and similarity in their leading religion, colonial past, and HIV seroprevalence starting from barely noticeable (0.6 - 1.2%, for Mauritania, Senegal, Somalia, and Niger) and low levels (1.9 - 4.8%, for Mali, Eritrea, Djibouti, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Burkina-Faso, and Chad) for Muslim populated past possessions of France and Italy, in the northern part of the subcontinent. Former territories of France, Belgium, Portugal, and the UK formed two other groups of the countries nearing the equator with Catholic prevailing (Democratic Republic of Congo, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Gabon, and Burundi) or mixed populations comprising Christian, Muslim, and indigenous believers (Benin, Ghana, Uganda, Togo, Angola, Nigeria, Liberia, Kenya, Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, and Sierra-Leone), which covered the HIV

  16. Ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic in low- and middle-income countries by 2030: is it possible? [version 1; referees: 2 approved

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony D. Harries

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The international community has committed to ending the epidemics of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and neglected tropical infections by 2030, and this bold stance deserves universal support. In this paper, we discuss whether this ambitious goal is achievable for HIV/AIDS and what is needed to further accelerate progress. The joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets and the related strategy are built upon currently available health technologies that can diagnose HIV infection and suppress viral replication in all people with HIV. Nonetheless, there is much work to be done in ensuring equitable access to these HIV services for key populations and those who remain outside the rims of the traditional health services. Identifying a cure and a preventive vaccine would further help accelerate progress in ending the epidemic. Other disease control programmes could learn from the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

  17. Addressing men and gender diversity in education: a promising solution to the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghajarieh, Amir Biglar Beigi; Kow, Karen Yip Cheng

    2011-04-01

    To date, researchers investigating gender in relation to social issues underscore women and appear to sideline men. Focusing on women in studies concerning sociogender issues may exclude not only men from mainstream research, but also those who do not fit into the binary gender system, including gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgender (GLBT) people. One area closely related to gender issues is the HIV epidemic. Mainstream discussions of men and other versions of masculinity and femininity including GLBT people in the gender-related studies of the HIV epidemic can decrease the vulnerability of individuals against HIV infections regardless of their biological sex.

  18. AIDS cannot be an exception to offer of lower bus fares.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-11-28

    U.S. District Judge Joe Billy McDade ruled that the Metro Link bus system of Rock Island, IL cannot exclude people with AIDS from a special rate program afforded to those with mobility, visual, or hearing impairments. The suit was brought by the American Civil Liberties Union on behalf of [name removed] who wished to obtain a reduced-fare card because his AIDS condition severely impaired his ability to walk. Metro Link's application for reduced fare explicitly states that those whose sole disability is AIDS are ineligible for the program. Judge McDade ruled that the application violates the American Disabilities Act (ADA) and the Rehabilitation Act because it discriminated against [name removed] exclusively because of his disability. The policy also violated [name removed]'s right to equal protection under the 14th Amendment.

  19. What do young adults know about the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Findings from a population based study in Karachi, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farid-ul-Hasnain, Syed; Johansson, Eva; Krantz, Gunilla

    2009-03-26

    HIVAIDS is spreading globally, hitting the younger generations. In Pakistan, the prevalence of HIV in high-risk subpopulations is five per cent or higher. This poses a serious threat of a generalised epidemic especially among the younger population. In the wake of HIVAIDS epidemic this is worrying as a well informed younger generation is crucial in restricting the spread of this epidemic. This study investigated Pakistani young adults' (male and female) knowledge and awareness of the HIV/AIDS disease. A population-based, cross-sectional study of 1,650 male and female adults aged 17-21 years living in Karachi was conducted using a structured questionnaire. A multi-stage cluster sampling design was used to collect data representative of the general population in an urban area. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed separately for males and females. Of 1,650 subjects, 24 per cent (n = 390) reported that they had not heard of HIV/AIDS. Among the males, those with a poor knowledge were younger (AOR = 2.20; 95 per cent CI, 1.38, 3.49), with less than six years of schooling (AOR = 2.46; 1.29 4.68) and no computer at home (AOR = 1.88; 1.06 3.34). Among the females, the risk factors for poor knowledge were young age (AOR = 1.74; 1.22, 2.50), low socio-economic status (AOR = 1.54; 1.06, 2.22), lack of enrolment at school/college (AOR = 1.61; 1.09, 2.39) and being unmarried (AOR = 1.85; 1.05, 3.26). Alarming gaps in knowledge relating to HIV/AIDS were detected. The study emphasises the need to educate young adults and equip them with the appropriate information and skills to enable them to protect themselves from HIV/AIDS. However, taboos surrounding public discussions of sexuality remain a key constraint to preventive activities.

  20. What do young adults know about the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Findings from a population based study in Karachi, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johansson Eva

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background HIVAIDS is spreading globally, hitting the younger generations. In Pakistan, the prevalence of HIV in high-risk subpopulations is five per cent or higher. This poses a serious threat of a generalised epidemic especially among the younger population. In the wake of HIVAIDS epidemic this is worrying as a well informed younger generation is crucial in restricting the spread of this epidemic. This study investigated Pakistani young adults' (male and female knowledge and awareness of the HIV/AIDS disease. Methods A population-based, cross-sectional study of 1,650 male and female adults aged 17–21 years living in Karachi was conducted using a structured questionnaire. A multi-stage cluster sampling design was used to collect data representative of the general population in an urban area. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed separately for males and females. Results Of 1,650 subjects, 24 per cent (n = 390 reported that they had not heard of HIV/AIDS. Among the males, those with a poor knowledge were younger (AOR = 2.20; 95 per cent CI, 1.38, 3.49, with less than six years of schooling (AOR = 2.46; 1.29 4.68 and no computer at home (AOR = 1.88; 1.06 3.34. Among the females, the risk factors for poor knowledge were young age (AOR = 1.74; 1.22, 2.50, low socio-economic status (AOR = 1.54; 1.06, 2.22, lack of enrolment at school/college (AOR = 1.61; 1.09, 2.39 and being unmarried (AOR = 1.85; 1.05, 3.26. Conclusion Alarming gaps in knowledge relating to HIV/AIDS were detected. The study emphasises the need to educate young adults and equip them with the appropriate information and skills to enable them to protect themselves from HIV/AIDS. However, taboos surrounding public discussions of sexuality remain a key constraint to preventive activities.

  1. The Prevalence of HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Anambra State, Nigeria ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In 2012 AVERT'S HIV/AIDS statistics records Nigeria as the second largest number ... state, Nigeria with 8.7% above the national prevalence average rate of 4.5 per cent. ... Results revealed among others that: biological issues, poverty, female ... false religious assurances against HIV/AIDS, and traditional birth practices are ...

  2. Experiencing an Epidemic: A Seminar Designed To Explore the Spread and Prevention of the AIDS Virus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochlin, Joyce T.

    A seminar was designed to present AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome) related information to 52 college students enrolled in Psychology 101 courses at Essex Community College in Maryland. First, a questionnaire was administered to determine student knowledge about AIDS. The next part of the procedure was an intervention in the form of a…

  3. Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2015-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) i...

  4. [The economics of health care in developing countries: what the fight against the AIDS epidemics has changed].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moatti, Jean Paul

    2008-12-01

    Since the start of the new century, development aid targeted on health care has seen an unprecedented rise, driven by the fight against AIDS. This article shows how this struggle has been accompanied with a renewal of the economic paradigms governing international action in favour of health care in developing countries: the idea that an improvement in health care constitutes an unavoidable prerequisite to macroeconomic growth, rather than a consequence; the insistence on the founding of mechanisms for health insurance to finance the costs of health care, rather than covering the costs at the point of use by the health care users; a concern to impose price differentials for access to medicine in developing countries, and to introduce flexibility in the regulation of international intellectual property law; the priority to vertical programmes targeted on certain illnesses, thought to act as levers for a global reinforcement of health care systems. This article discusses the pertinence of these new paradigms in light of the evolution of the AIDS/HIV epidemic, and the international context.

  5. A statistical network analysis of the HIV/AIDS epidemics in Cuba

    OpenAIRE

    Clémençon, Stéphan; De Arazoza, Hector; Rossi, Fabrice; Tran, Viet Chi

    2014-01-01

    International audience; The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light onto the spread of HIV and the role of contact-tracing. Clustering based on modularity optimization provides a better visualization and understanding of the network, in combination with the study of covariates. The graph has a globa...

  6. 25 Years of HIV/AIDS: a dermatologist epidemic watcher's perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colven, Roy

    2006-10-01

    Though history will mark June 1981 as the birthday of the AIDS pandemic, the first true case of the syndrome and its cause originated years before in West-Central Africa. History also highlights the irony that the discovery of AIDS, the detection of its cause, and the development of drugs for its treatment, all occurred far from its origin, and now, 25 years later, the greatest burden of this disease is where it is believed to have started.

  7. Who is epidemiologically fathomable in the HIV/AIDS epidemic? Gender, sexuality, and intersectionality in public health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dworkin, Shari L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper examines the shifting nature of contemporary epidemiological classifications in the HIV/ AIDS epidemic. It first looks at assumptions that guide a discourse of vulnerability and circulate around risk categories. It then examines the underlying emphasis in public health on the popular frame of “vulnerable women” who acquire HIV through heterosexual transmission. Drawing on work on gender, sexuality, and intersectionality, the paper asks why a discourse of vulnerability is infused into discussions of heterosexually-active women's HIV risks but not those pertaining to heterosexually-active men's. The paper then moves to current surveillance categories that are hierarchically and differentially applied to women's and men's risks in the HIV epidemic. Here, the focus is on the way in which contemporary classifications allow for the emergence of the vulnerable heterosexually-active woman while simultaneously constituting lack of fathomability concerning bisexual and lesbian transmission risk. Lastly, theories of intersectionality, are used to examine current research on woman-to-woman transmission, and to suggest future more productive options. PMID:16864226

  8. The changing impact of the AIDS epidemic on older-age parents in the era of ART: evidence from Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knodel, John

    2012-03-01

    Previous research makes clear that before antiretroviral therapy (ART), when HIV led to disabling illness and certain death, many older persons as parents of infected adults experienced adverse emotional, material and social consequences. The present study examines how widespread access to ART is transforming the situation in Thailand. Interviews with parents of adult ART recipients reveal that major improvements in the health of their adult children under treatment is associated with major reductions in parental caregiving and expenses associated with their HIV-infected child although parents continue to provide psychological support. Parents own worry about their child's health also declines. Most adult children on ART are able to continue or resume economic activity and many contribute to support of the parental household. ART appears to reduce negative community reaction. Nevertheless, given uncertainty surrounding how long ART can protect against fatal illnesses, whether the adverse impacts of the AIDS epidemic on parents are being eliminated or only postponed remains an open question.

  9. Local Stability of AIDS Epidemic Model Through Treatment and Vertical Transmission with Time Delay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novi W, Cascarilla; Lestari, Dwi

    2016-02-01

    This study aims to explain stability of the spread of AIDS through treatment and vertical transmission model. Human with HIV need a time to positively suffer AIDS. The existence of a time, human with HIV until positively suffer AIDS can be delayed for a time so that the model acquired is the model with time delay. The model form is a nonlinear differential equation with time delay, SIPTA (susceptible-infected-pre AIDS-treatment-AIDS). Based on SIPTA model analysis results the disease free equilibrium point and the endemic equilibrium point. The disease free equilibrium point with and without time delay are local asymptotically stable if the basic reproduction number is less than one. The endemic equilibrium point will be local asymptotically stable if the time delay is less than the critical value of delay, unstable if the time delay is more than the critical value of delay, and bifurcation occurs if the time delay is equal to the critical value of delay.

  10. Shifting the burden: the private sector's response to the AIDS epidemic in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Sydney; Simon, Jonathon L.

    2003-01-01

    As the economic burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) increases in sub-Saharan Africa, allocation of the burden among levels and sectors of society is changing. The private sector has more scope to avoid the economic burden of AIDS than governments, households, or nongovernmental organizations, and the burden is being systematically shifted away from the private sector. Common practices that transfer the burden to households and government include pre-employment screening, reductions in employee benefits, restructured employment contracts, outsourcing of low skilled jobs, selective retrenchments, and changes in production technologies. Between 1997 and 1999 more than two-thirds of large South African employers reduced the level of health care benefits or increased employee contributions. Most firms also have replaced defined-benefit retirement funds, which expose the firm to large annual costs but provide long-term support for families, with defined-contribution funds, which eliminate risks to the firm but provide little for families of younger workers who die of AIDS. Contracting out previously permanent jobs is also shielding firms from benefit and turnover costs, effectively shifting the responsibility to care for affected workers and their families to households, nongovernmental organizations, and the government. Many of these changes are responses to globalization that would have occurred in the absence of AIDS, but they are devastating for the households of employees with HIV/AIDS. We argue that the shift in the economic burden of AIDS is a predictable response by business to which a deliberate public policy response is needed. Countries should make explicit decisions about each sector's responsibilities if a socially desirable allocation is to be achieved. PMID:12751421

  11. Shifting the burden: the private sector's response to the AIDS epidemic in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosen, Sydney; Simon, Jonathon L

    2003-01-01

    As the economic burden of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) increases in sub-Saharan Africa, allocation of the burden among levels and sectors of society is changing. The private sector has more scope to avoid the economic burden of AIDS than governments, households, or nongovernmental organizations, and the burden is being systematically shifted away from the private sector. Common practices that transfer the burden to households and government include pre-employment screening, reductions in employee benefits, restructured employment contracts, outsourcing of low skilled jobs, selective retrenchments, and changes in production technologies. Between 1997 and 1999 more than two-thirds of large South African employers reduced the level of health care benefits or increased employee contributions. Most firms also have replaced defined-benefit retirement funds, which expose the firm to large annual costs but provide long-term support for families, with defined-contribution funds, which eliminate risks to the firm but provide little for families of younger workers who die of AIDS. Contracting out previously permanent jobs is also shielding firms from benefit and turnover costs, effectively shifting the responsibility to care for affected workers and their families to households, nongovernmental organizations, and the government. Many of these changes are responses to globalization that would have occurred in the absence of AIDS, but they are devastating for the households of employees with HIV/AIDS. We argue that the shift in the economic burden of AIDS is a predictable response by business to which a deliberate public policy response is needed. Countries should make explicit decisions about each sector's responsibilities if a socially desirable allocation is to be achieved.

  12. [Community-based organizations and the aids epidemic in Amazonas state, Brazil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kadri, Michele Rocha; Schweickardt, Julio Cesar

    2015-05-01

    The scope of this paper was to analyze the perception of community-based organizations and their contributions to the history of tackling Aids in Amazonas State. It involved qualitative research with the use of oral and documental sources. Data were collected between June and September 2013 by means of semi-structured interviews with the leaders of eight organizations that work or worked with more vulnerable communities. Based on Discourse Analysis the conclusion drawn is that that the organizations perceive two distinct phases since the decentralization of funds from the Sexually-Transmitted Diseases Aids and Viral Hepatitis Department to the local leaders. The first phase was marked by the strengthening of organizations, collective empowerment and active political participation. The current phase has seen the distancing between organizations, a loss of political momentum and weakening of common response and organization.

  13. The AIDS epidemic in the Amazon region: a spatial case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Rita Donalisio

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE To analyze spatial changes in the risk of AIDS and the relationship between AIDS incidence and socioeconomic variables in the state of Rondonia, Amazon region. METHODS A spatial, population case-control study in Rondonia, Brazil, based on 1,780 cases reported to the Epidemiological Surveillance System and controls based on demographic data from 1987 to 2006. The cases were grouped into five consecutive four-year periods. A generalized additive model was adjusted to the data; the dependent variable was the status of the individuals (case or control, and the independent variables were a bi-dimensional spline of the geographic coordinates and some municipality-level socioeconomic variables. The observed values of the Moran’s I test were compared to a reference distribution of values generated under conditions of spatial randomness. RESULTS AIDS risk shows a marked spatial and temporal pattern. The disease incidence is related to socioeconomic variables at the municipal level in Rondônia, such as urbanization and human capital. The highest incidence rates of AIDS are in municipalities along the BR-364 highway and calculations of the Moran’s I test show positive spatial correlation associated with proximity of the municipality to the highway in the third and fourth periods (p = 0.05. CONCLUSIONS Incidence of the disease is higher in municipalities of greater economic wealth and urbanization, and in those municipalities bisected by Rondônia’s main roads. The rapid development associated with the opening up of once remote regions may be accompanied by an increase in these risks to health.

  14. PROVIDING WOMEN, KEPT MEN: Doing Masculinity in the wake of the African HIV/AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mojola, Sanyu A

    2014-01-01

    This paper draws on ethnographic and interview based fieldwork to explore accounts of intimate relationships between widowed women and poor young men that emerged in the wake of economic crisis and a devastating HIV epidemic among the Luo ethnic group in Western Kenya. I show how the cooptation of widow inheritance practices in the wake of an overwhelming number of widows as well as economic crisis resulted in widows becoming providing women and poor young men becoming kept men. I illustrate how widows in this setting, by performing a set of practices central to what it meant to be a man in this society - pursuing and providing for their partners - were effectively doing masculinity. I will also show how young men, rather than being feminized by being kept, deployed other sets of practices to prove their masculinity and live in a manner congruent with cultural ideals. I argue that ultimately, women's practice of masculinity in large part seemed to serve patriarchal ends. It not only facilitated the fulfillment of patriarchal expectations of femininity - to being inherited - but also served, in the end, to provide a material base for young men's deployment of legitimizing and culturally valued sets of masculine practice.

  15. 'Taking care' in the age of AIDS: older rural South Africans' strategies for surviving the HIV epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angotti, Nicole; Mojola, Sanyu A; Schatz, Enid; Williams, Jill R; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier

    2018-03-01

    Older adults have been largely overlooked in community studies of HIV in highly endemic African countries. In our rural study site in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, HIV prevalence among those aged 50 and older is 16.5%, suggesting that older adults are at risk of both acquiring and transmitting HIV. This paper utilises community-based focus-group interviews with older rural South African men and women to better understand the normative environment in which they come to understand and make decisions about their health as they age in an HIV endemic setting. We analyse the dimensions of an inductively emerging theme: ku ti hlayisa (to take care of yourself). For older adults, 'taking care' in an age of AIDS represented: (1) an individualised pathway to achieving old-age respectability through the taking up of responsibilities and behaviours that characterise being an older person, (2) a set of gendered norms and strategies for reducing one's HIV risk, and (3) a shared responsibility for attenuating the impact of the HIV epidemic in the local community. Findings reflect the individual, interdependent and communal ways in which older rural South Africans understand HIV risk and prevention, ways that also map onto current epidemiological thinking for improving HIV-related outcomes in high-prevalence settings.

  16. Keith Haring, Felix Gonzalez-Torres, Wolfgang Tillmans, and the AIDS Epidemic: The Use of Visual Art in a Health Humanities Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A

    2018-02-23

    Contemporary art can be a powerful pedagogical tool in the health humanities. Students in an undergraduate course in the health humanities explore the subjective experience of illness and develop their empathy by studying three artists in the context of the AIDS epidemic: Keith Haring, Felix Gonzalez-Torres, and Wolfgang Tillmans. Using assignments based in narrative pedagogy, students expand their empathic response to pain and suffering. The role of visual art in health humanities pedagogy is discussed.

  17. HIV/AIDS among inmates of and releasees from US correctional facilities, 2006: declining share of epidemic but persistent public health opportunity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne C Spaulding

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available Because certain groups at high risk for HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome come together in correctional facilities, seroprevalence was high early in the epidemic. The share of the HIV/AIDS epidemic borne by inmates of and persons released from jails and prisons in the United States (US in 1997 was estimated in a previous paper. While the number of inmates and releasees has risen, their HIV seroprevalence rates have fallen. We sought to determine if the share of HIV/AIDS borne by inmates and releasees in the US decreased between 1997 and 2006. We created a new model of population flow in and out of correctional facilities to estimate the number of persons released in 1997 and 2006. In 1997, approximately one in five of all HIV-infected Americans was among the 7.3 million who left a correctional facility that year. Nine years later, only one in seven (14% of infected Americans was among the 9.1 million leaving, a 29.3% decline in the share. For black and Hispanic males, two demographic groups with heightened incarceration rates, recently released inmates comprise roughly one in five of those groups' total HIV-infected persons, a figure similar to the proportion borne by the correctional population as a whole in 1997. Decreasing HIV seroprevalence among those admitted to jails and prisons, prolonged survival and aging of the US population with HIV/AIDS beyond the crime-prone years, and success with discharge planning programs targeting HIV-infected prisoners could explain the declining concentration of the epidemic among correctional populations. Meanwhile, the number of persons with HIV/AIDS leaving correctional facilities remains virtually identical. Jails and prisons continue to be potent targets for public health interventions. The fluid nature of incarcerated populations ensures that effective interventions will be felt not only in correctional facilities but also in communities to which releasees return.

  18. HIV/AIDS among inmates of and releasees from US correctional facilities, 2006: declining share of epidemic but persistent public health opportunity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaulding, Anne C; Seals, Ryan M; Page, Matthew J; Brzozowski, Amanda K; Rhodes, William; Hammett, Theodore M

    2009-11-11

    Because certain groups at high risk for HIV/AIDS (human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome) come together in correctional facilities, seroprevalence was high early in the epidemic. The share of the HIV/AIDS epidemic borne by inmates of and persons released from jails and prisons in the United States (US) in 1997 was estimated in a previous paper. While the number of inmates and releasees has risen, their HIV seroprevalence rates have fallen. We sought to determine if the share of HIV/AIDS borne by inmates and releasees in the US decreased between 1997 and 2006. We created a new model of population flow in and out of correctional facilities to estimate the number of persons released in 1997 and 2006. In 1997, approximately one in five of all HIV-infected Americans was among the 7.3 million who left a correctional facility that year. Nine years later, only one in seven (14%) of infected Americans was among the 9.1 million leaving, a 29.3% decline in the share. For black and Hispanic males, two demographic groups with heightened incarceration rates, recently released inmates comprise roughly one in five of those groups' total HIV-infected persons, a figure similar to the proportion borne by the correctional population as a whole in 1997. Decreasing HIV seroprevalence among those admitted to jails and prisons, prolonged survival and aging of the US population with HIV/AIDS beyond the crime-prone years, and success with discharge planning programs targeting HIV-infected prisoners could explain the declining concentration of the epidemic among correctional populations. Meanwhile, the number of persons with HIV/AIDS leaving correctional facilities remains virtually identical. Jails and prisons continue to be potent targets for public health interventions. The fluid nature of incarcerated populations ensures that effective interventions will be felt not only in correctional facilities but also in communities to which releasees return.

  19. Multi-Sector Participation In The National Response To Prevent And Address The Hiv/Aids Epidemic In The Republic Of Cuba, 2007-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isora Ramos Valle

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The development of a strong national response involving multiple sectors—including civil society—is an essential aspect of the social management of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The goals of this response are to control the epidemic and improve the quality of life for people living with HIV/AIDS; this includes combating stigma and discrimination, as well as ensuring due compliance with the law. Cuba has a national program to prevent and control HIV/AIDS. Since 2003 Cuba’s national program has received material and financial support from the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria. Program evaluation is carried out by an independent team at ENSAP (National School of Public Health. This paper reports on results of one part of that evaluation: an assessment of the agencies and sectors who made up the organized social and national response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The evaluation primarily used qualitative analyses of the activities and tasks proposed by sectors in their 2006-2008 work plans. Visits were made to the provinces of Ciudad de la Habana, Matanzas, and Holguín. Qualitative techniques included in-depth interviews, semi-structured interviews, observation, and review of documentary evidence of all kinds (videos, reports, minutes, protocols, results of social research, and radio broadcast messages and varied depending on the particular features of each sector. We noted improvements in multi-sector participation in the prevention and response to the national HIV/AIDS epidemic. Conscious of their role, sectors generally carried out their programmed activities and had improved their organization, planning, and systematization; integration among the sectors was also better. These local initiatives provided evidence of a multi-sector response characterized by autonomy, emotional involvement, and an identification with the goals of the project; this went beyond simply meeting targets. Cross-sector work showed a marked increase and a

  20. Psychological well-being of people living with HIV/AIDS under the new epidemic characteristics in China and the risk factors: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Wei; Wu, Ming; Qu, Peng; Lu, Chunming; Wang, Lie

    2014-11-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic in China is growing and the main transmission mode has changed from contaminated blood products to sexual contact. The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of anxiety (SAS; Zung Self-Rating Anxiety Scale) and depression (CES-D; Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA) under the new epidemic characteristics and to examine associated factors. The sample size (N=800) was calculated on the basis of the lowest prevalence of psychological disorders among PLWHA and was enlarged taking into consideration a loss of response. Participants were sampled randomly among all PLWHA registered in Liaoning Province. Questionnaires pertaining to the SAS, CES-D, and related factors were distributed between December 2010 and April 2011; 772 effective responses were received. The prevalence of anxiety (SAS ≥40) and depression (CES-D ≥16) were 49.0% and 73.1%, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that SAS was associated with self-rated health, condom use at the last sexual contact, perceived social support, alcohol consumption, and transmission; CES-D was associated with self-rated health, perceived social support, job, and sex. PLWHA under the new epidemic characteristics in China suffer from serious psychological problems. To improve their psychological well-being, efforts should be focused on improving perceptions of their health condition and increasing perceived social support.

  1. Indicadores propostos pela UNGASS e o monitoramento da epidemia de Aids no Brasil Proposed UNGASS indicators and the monitoring of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aristides Barbosa Junior

    2006-04-01

    monitoring the proposed UNGASS indicators through the use of the Brazilian National Program for STD/AIDS indicators. Two groups of proposed indicators were analyzed in 2002 and 2005 respectively, as part of the monitoring of the progress of the UNGASS Declaration of Commitment. The availability of information and limitations in calculating the proposed indicators in Brazil were analyzed and the appropriateness of the indicators for monitoring the epidemic in Brazil was discussed. Of the 13 quantitative indicators originally proposed by UNGASS, five were not included in the National Program. One was not included due to its qualitative nature. Two of the indicators were considered to be of little use and two were not included due to the lack of available data needed for their calculation. As the epidemic in Brazil is characterized as being concentrated, within the second group of proposed UNGASS indicators those that refer to the accompaniment of epidemic among high-risk population groups were prioritized. The study highlights that the National Program concentrates its efforts in the development, adaptation, and sharing of sampling methodologies for hard to reach populations. Such activities are geared towards estimating the size of vulnerable population groups, as well as obtaining more information regarding their knowledge, attitudes, and practices. The study concludes that by creating the possibility of international comparisons between advances achieved, the proposal of supranational indicators stimulates countries to discuss and make their construction viable. In a complementary way, the national monitoring systems should focus on program improvement by covering areas that permit the evaluation of specific control and intervention actions.

  2. Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2015-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is an obligation that corporates have toward their employees, community and society. A review and documentation of one such CSR by Johnson & Johnson (a multinational company) for HIV/AIDS in Africa is presented here. Johnson & Johnson Company is involved in numerous projects around the world to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The company is working to fight the spread of the disease and improve the quality of life for those living with the illness through various donations of its products and sponsorship of local programs. This case study also highlights different categories of CSR activities such as Cause Promotion, Cause related Marketing, Corporate Philanthropy, Corporate Social Marketing, Corporate Volunteering and Socially responsible business practices, which are discussed with specific examples from different countries in Africa. CSR of any business encompasses the economic, legal, ethical & discretionary expectation placed on the organization by society at a given point of time. CSR is therefore the obligation that corporations have toward their stakeholders and society in general which horizons beyond what is prescribed by law or union contracts. Johnson & Johnson has a proved history of being committed to caring for people and a good example of a company with a long history of citizenship and sustainability.

  3. Corporate social responsibility in public health: A case-study on HIV/AIDS epidemic by Johnson & Johnson company in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chattu, Vijay Kumar

    2015-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives in the global workforce and continues to remain a threat to many businesses. An estimated 36.5 million of working people are living with HIV; the global workforce has lost 28 million people from AIDS since the beginning of the epidemic. In the absence of access to treatment, this number could grow to 74 million by 2015. The epidemic continues to affect the working population through absenteeism, sickness and death. Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is an obligation that corporates have toward their employees, community and society. A review and documentation of one such CSR by Johnson & Johnson (a multinational company) for HIV/AIDS in Africa is presented here. Johnson & Johnson Company is involved in numerous projects around the world to combat the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The company is working to fight the spread of the disease and improve the quality of life for those living with the illness through various donations of its products and sponsorship of local programs. This case study also highlights different categories of CSR activities such as Cause Promotion, Cause related Marketing, Corporate Philanthropy, Corporate Social Marketing, Corporate Volunteering and Socially responsible business practices, which are discussed with specific examples from different countries in Africa. Conclusions: CSR of any business encompasses the economic, legal, ethical & discretionary expectation placed on the organization by society at a given point of time. CSR is therefore the obligation that corporations have toward their stakeholders and society in general which horizons beyond what is prescribed by law or union contracts. Johnson & Johnson has a proved history of being committed to caring for people and a good example of a company with a long history of citizenship and sustainability. PMID:25810667

  4. Human immunodeficiency virus, AIDS, and drug consumption in South America and the Caribbean: epidemiological evidence and initiatives to curb the epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Malta, Monica; Enriquez, Melissa; Bastos, Francisco I

    2005-01-01

    The paper reviews data on drug use in relation to the spread of human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS in South America and the Caribbean. Information was gathered by thoroughly reviewing major bibliographic databanks, web sites of international institutions and regional networks working with substance misuse or human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS, and abstracts from conferences and meetings. Although some gaps remain, a growing body of evidence documents the significant role of injected cocaine in the Brazilian and Southern Cone epidemics. The Caribbean and the Andean areas have thus far been spared in large part from the spread of injection drug use and its consequences, but the situation has been changing in Southern Cone countries towards a higher prevalence of harmful injection habits. Additional challenges have been posed by the increasing availability of heroin in the Andean Area and the abuse of crack cocaine and its impact on the sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in many cities. Harm reduction strategies have been established in most areas of Brazil and are gaining momentum in Argentina. Other countries in the Region still face serious limitations due to restrictive legislation and lack of broader support. Greater participation of Latin American and Caribbean countries in research protocols and continued debate on both successful and failed experiences should be encouraged in order to minimize existing barriers to the full adoption of effective measures to curb the human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS epidemic in this Region.

  5. HIV/AIDS epidemic in French Guiana: 1979-1997. Groupe d'Etude Clinique de l'Infection VIH en Guyane Française.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobesky, M; Dabis, F; Le Beux, P

    2000-06-01

    The incidence of AIDS in French Guiana remains one of the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean. The annual AIDS incidence rate increased continually from the start of the epidemic until 1995, when it reached 59.3/100,000 population declining thereafter to 26.6 in 1997. The prevalence of HIV in pregnant women was 0.9% in 1993, increasing to 1.3% in 1995, and that in individuals attending sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics was 2.1% in 1996. We included 224 patients in a study of survival after AIDS diagnosis. The principal AIDS-defining diagnosis was tuberculosis in 20.5% of reported cases. The median duration of survival was 10.2 months. Multivariate analysis showed that, patients > or = 45 years at entry progressed more rapidly to AIDS than younger patients. HIV prevention and access to health care should be developed in the various ethnic communities and adapted to cultural status. The progressive implementation of multiple antiretroviral therapies since 1996 may further reduce progression of the disease but early HIV diagnosis is required to improve the overall prognosis of HIV-infected patients.

  6. Impacto da terapia anti-retroviral na magnitude da epidemia do HIV/AIDS no Brasil: diversos cenários Impact of antiretroviral therapy on the magnitude of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Brazil: various scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Tereza S. Barbosa

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available Neste trabalho, utilizaram-se os algoritmos EM e EMS aplicados ao método do Cálculo Retroativo para estimar a magnitude da epidemia do HIV no Brasil. Fazendo-se suposições a respeito do comportamento dos infectados, em relação à utilização da terapia combinada das drogas anti-retrovirais, construíram-se cinco cenários para a epidemia brasileira. O objetivo foi o de ilustrar os impactos que a utilização da terapia combinada das drogas anti-retrovirais possam estar tendo ou possam vir a ter na incubação do vírus e, por conseguinte, nas avaliações da epidemia realizadas a partir dos casos de Aids notificados.We applied the back-calculation method to estimate the magnitude of the HIV epidemic in Brazil, using the EM and EMS algorithms. Under certain assumptions regarding the behavior of infected patients towards combined antiretroviral therapy, we discuss five different scenarios applied to the Brazilian epidemic. Our objective was to illustrate the impact of combined antiretroviral treatment on the incubation period and thus on estimates of the size of the HIV-infected population, based on reported AIDS cases.

  7. No More Broken Promises: Challenges and Opportunities for Key Populations in Demanding More Transparency, Accountability, and Participation in the Global Response Against the HIV and AIDS Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang Pico, Tomás A; Kohler, Jillian Clare; Hoffmann, Julia; Mungala, Lucy

    2017-12-01

    The global fight against HIV/AIDS continues to pose challenges: infection rates are on the rise in many settings, stigma and discrimination remain rampant, and the global response is under increasing financial pressure. There is a high risk of losing what has been achieved so far in the fight against HIV and AIDS, but also the momentum to meet the so-called Fast Track targets for 2030. In light of these trends, it is fundamental to focus on the human rights of key populations (KPs)-especially to health, non-discrimination, access to information, and to equal and meaningful participation in political and public affairs-by placing them at the center of the global HIV response. Such rights, and the demand for more transparency, accountability, and participation (TAP), have been recognized as both a necessary social justice imperative, and as a way to build more responsive, inclusive, and sustainable health systems. This article will argue that embracing TAP as key guiding principles of the global HIV response (especially in low- and middle-income countries) could have the potential to create the conditions for KPs to have their human rights fulfilled, and to expand their participation in the decision-making processes that guide the efforts against the epidemic. It will then propose a number of avenues for further engagement between different communities of practice in terms of research, agendas, and policy and practices that could be beneficial in maximizing the impact of the global efforts to end HIV/AIDS.

  8. Prevention for those who have freedom of choice – or among the choice-disabled: confronting equity in the AIDS epidemic

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    Andersson Neil

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract With the exception of post-exposure prophylaxis for reported rape, no preventive strategy addresses the choice disabled – those who might like to benefit from AIDS prevention but who are unable to do so because they do not have the power to make and to act on prevention decisions. In southern African countries, where one in every three has been forced to have sex by the age of 18 years, a very large proportion of the population is choice disabled. This group is at higher risk of HIV infection and unable to respond to AIDS prevention programmes; they represent a reservoir of infection. Reduction of sexual violence would probably decrease HIV transmission directly, but also indirectly as more people can respond to existing AIDS prevention programmes.

  9. Quality of life of people living with HIV/AIDS under the new epidemic characteristics in China and the associated factors.

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    Wei Sun

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Improvement of quality of life has been one of goals in health care for people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA. In China, the epidemic characteristics have changed and transmission is now most commonly sexual contact. However, the assessment of quality of life of PLWHA under new characteristics has limited reporting. This study was designed to assess the quality of life among PLWHA who contracted disease mainly via sexual contact and to clarify the associated factors. METHODS: A cross-sectional study was performed in Liaoning Province. Sample size (800 was calculated based on the fatality rate and enlarged with consideration on the loss of response. Participants were sampled by tables of random numbers among all registered PLWHA. Questionnaires pertaining to quality of life (SF-36 and related factors (demographic characteristics, social support and network, HIV/AIDS awareness, and behavior factors were distributed during December 2010-April 2011. 783 effective responses were obtained. RESULTS: The average scores of physical component summary (PCS, mental component summary (MCS, and total score (TS were 66.8±21.9 (Mean±SD, 62.2±20.9, and 64.5±20.2. General linear model analysis revealed that, in standardized estimate (β sequence, PCS was significantly associated with monthly income, perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, transmission, and ethnicity; MCS was associated with perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, condom use, monthly income, transmission, ethnicity, and alcohol consumption; whereas TS was associated with perceived social support, antiretroviral therapy, monthly income, transmission, condom use, and ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Quality of life for PLWHA who contracted HIV mainly via sexual contact was worse and both physical conditions and social integration were impacted. Under current epidemic characteristics, efforts to increase social support and enhance the implementation of supporting policy are

  10. Where are we heading with HIV / AIDS in sub-Saharan Africa? The status and trends of HIV / AIDS / STD epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kerkhoven, R

    1998-02-01

    By the end of 1997, an estimated 20.8 million people in sub-Saharan Africa were infected with HIV, 68% of all HIV infections. At the Tenth Annual International Conference on STDs and AIDS in Africa held in Abidjan in 1997, the MAP network continued its series of pre-conference symposia on the shape and status of HIV/AIDS in the various continents. The outcome of the Abidjan symposium was then published in a provisional report made available to the main conference's participants. The main conclusions of the symposium with regard to the following areas and subjects are presented: West Africa, Central Africa, the Horn of Africa, Eastern Africa, Southern Africa, life expectancy, HIV/AIDS and STDs, data, determinants of the spread of HIV, the relative importance of determinants, poverty, understanding determinants, the national response, children and the spread of HIV, and the future.

  11. The shape of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico El estado de la epidemia de VIH/SIDA en Puerto Rico

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    Maria A. Gomez

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available This study presents information on AIDS patients in Puerto Rico, including their general sociodemographic profile, some risk-related parameters, characteristics of vulnerable groups, and elements of the clinical spectrum of the disease. Data were analyzed from the Puerto Rico AIDS Surveillance Program and available studies about the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Puerto Rico. A total of 23 089 AIDS cases was reported to the Puerto Rico AIDS Surveillance Program from January 1981 through February 1999. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has affected mostly males and females between the ages of 30 and 49, though cases have also been reported for other age groups. The cumulative proportion of persons with AIDS who are women has increased tremendously, from 11.4% for the 1981-1986 period to 21.6% for the entire 1981-1999 period. In Puerto Rico the category of injecting drug users (IDUs accounts for the majority of the AIDS cases (52%, followed by heterosexual contact (22%, and men who have sex with men (17%. The three main diagnoses for AIDS on the island are wasting syndrome (30.7%; esophageal, bronchial, and lung candidiasis (29.4%; and Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia (26.8%. According to 1994 vital statistics for Puerto Rico, AIDS was the fourth-leading cause of death. The overall reported AIDS mortality rate was 42.0 per 100 000 persons, with the rate for males, 67.8, much higher than it was for females, 17.4. AIDS is the first cause of death among persons between 30 and 39 years old. Intense efforts are needed to better understand the epidemic in Puerto Rico and its biology, social and family impacts, and financial costs.Este estudio presenta información sobre los pacientes con sida en Puerto Rico, como su perfil sociodemográfico general, los factores de riesgo, las características de los grupos vulnerables y los elementos del espectro clínico de la enfermedad. Los datos analizados procedían del Programa de Vigilancia del sida en Puerto Rico y de estudios sobre

  12. Neoliberal Governance in the HIV and AIDS Epidemic Among Mexican Women in Mexico: the Effects of the Paradigm of Vulnerability

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    Ana Amuchástegui

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The response to the HIV epidemics in Mexico is supported by the neoliberal governance paradigm of vulnerability, in such a way that a government organization of suffering distributes resources among “key populations”. This article discusses the way in which this strategy, oriented by the moral regulation of sexuality, works simultaneously as raison d’etre and straitjacket for feminist and women with HIV organizations, making difficult alliances between them. This discussion is carried out through an analysis of ethnographic material and an intervention-research with and for women affected by HIV. Their biographies show multiple forms of resistance, suggesting the necessity of questioning their self-representation as impotent subjects, and of problematizing, as a task of feminism, the dichotomy vulnerability-resistance.

  13. The AIDS epidemic in the city of Copenhagen, Denmark: potential years of life lost and impact on life expectancy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Smith, Else; Juel, Knud

    2005-01-01

    accounted for 8% of all PYLL in men and showed an increasing tendency from 1983 to 1991, when it became the leading cause of PYLL. AIDS had most impact in men in the age group 25-44 years and accounted for 29% of all PYLL in this group at the peak in 1993, decreasing significantly after the introduction...

  14. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

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    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  15. Critical bioethics in the time of epidemic: The case of the criminalization of HIV/AIDS nondisclosure in Canada

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    Jennifer M. Kilty

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This article highlights the ethically uncertain and emotionally charged climate that governs the criminalization of HIV nondisclosure in Canada. Focusing on AIDS Service Organizations (ASO, we suggest that interlocutors perform critical work that helps people living with HIV/AIDS make sense of their rights and responsibilities. Semi-structured interviews with 62 ASO staff across Canada revealed this shifting landscape of HIV advocacy in the age of criminalizing HIV nondisclosure. Drawing on a critical bioethics approach that is informed by considering the role of emotion in decision-making, this article critiques the liberal model of the rational actor that is central to traditional discussions of bioethics and law. Our findings suggest that ASO workers have varying degrees of knowledge about the intricacies of legal duties of disclosure, which affect how they balance their own emotions and thoughts about nondisclosure with their professional duties to provide support and counselling. Ultimately, we argue that critical bioethics in the context of criminalization commands us to appreciate the inherently affective nature of the environment in which bioethical decisions are made.

  16. AIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... page: //medlineplus.gov/ency/article/000594.htm HIV/AIDS To use the sharing features on this page, ... immunodeficiency virus (HIV) is the virus that causes AIDS. When a person becomes infected with HIV, the ...

  17. ¿Hacia dónde se encamina la epidemia de infección por VIH y sida? HIV and AIDS: where is the epidemic going?

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    T. E. Mertens

    1997-03-01

    los Estados Unidos de América. Si bien estos cambios pueden ocurrir como parte de la dinámica intrínseca de la epidemia, hay indicios de que las reducciones de la prevalencia de la infección por VIH están relacionadas con disminuciones de la incidencia, que se deben, al menos en parte, a las actividades de prevención. El actual reto de los métodos de vigilancia y evaluación radica en descubrir aquellos ingredientes que han llevado al éxito y que pueden ofrecer un rayo de esperanza.Routine surveillance of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus infection and AIDS has been established over the past decade in many countries around the world. HIV estimates derived from empirical data are essential to the assessment of the HIV situation in different parts of the world and trends are used in tracking the development of regional epidemics, thereby keeping intervention activities focused on realities. As of the end of 1995, and following an extensive country-by-country review of HIV/AIDS data, a cumulative total of 6 million AIDS cases were estimated to have occurred in adults and children worldwide and currently 20.1 million adults are estimated to be alive and infected with HIV or have AIDS. Of the total prevalent HIV infections, the majority remain concentrated in eastern, central and southern Africa, but the epidemic is evolving with spread of infection from urban to rural areas, as well as to West and South Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and to a lesser extent--with proportional shifts to heterosexual infections--in North America, Western Europe and Latin America. While the longer-term dimensions of the HIV epidemic at global level cannnot be forecast with confidence, WHO currently projects a cumulative total of close to 40 million HIV infections in men, women and children by the year 2000. By that time, the male:female ratio of new infections will be close to 1:1. Recent trends indicate that HIV prevalence levels may be stabilizing or even decreasing among

  18. Analysis of recruitment and industrial human resources management for optimal productivity in the presence of the HIV/AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okosun, Kazeem O; Makinde, Oluwole D; Takaidza, Isaac

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to analyze the recruitment effects of susceptible and infected individuals in order to assess the productivity of an organizational labor force in the presence of HIV/AIDS with preventive and HAART treatment measures in enhancing the workforce output. We consider constant controls as well as time-dependent controls. In the constant control case, we calculate the basic reproduction number and investigate the existence and stability of equilibria. The model is found to exhibit backward and Hopf bifurcations, implying that for the disease to be eradicated, the basic reproductive number must be below a critical value of less than one. We also investigate, by calculating sensitivity indices, the sensitivity of the basic reproductive number to the model's parameters. In the time-dependent control case, we use Pontryagin's maximum principle to derive necessary conditions for the optimal control of the disease. Finally, numerical simulations are performed to illustrate the analytical results. The cost-effectiveness analysis results show that optimal efforts on recruitment (HIV screening of applicants, etc.) is not the most cost-effective strategy to enhance productivity in the organizational labor force. Hence, to enhance employees' productivity, effective education programs and strict adherence to preventive measures should be promoted.

  19. HIV/AIDS prevention, faith, and spirituality among black/African American and Latino communities in the United States: strengthening scientific faith-based efforts to shift the course of the epidemic and reduce HIV-related health disparities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Madeline Y; Parks, Carolyn P

    2013-06-01

    Black/African American and Latino communities are disproportionately affected by the domestic HIV/AIDS epidemic. Blacks/African Americans and Latinos are also more likely to report a formal, religious, or faith affiliation when compared with non-Hispanic whites. As such, faith leaders and their institutions have been identified in the National HIV/AIDS Strategy as having a vital role to serve in reducing: (1) HIV-related health disparities and (2) the number of new HIV infections by promoting non-judgmental support for persons living with and at risk for HIV/AIDS and by serving as trusted information resources for their congregants and communities. We describe faith doctrines and faith-science partnerships that are increasing in support of faith-based HIV prevention and service delivery activities and discuss the vital role of these faith-based efforts in highly affected black/African American and Latino communities.

  20. O papel da mídia na prevenção do HIV/Aids e a representação da mulher no contexto da epidemia The paper of the media in the prevention of HIV/AIDS and the woman's representation in the context of the epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erli Helena Gonçalves

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available O presente artigo questiona o papel da mídia diante da epidemia do HIV/Aids. Toda a discussão é travada à luz da bioética, tentando sempre apreender os dilemas morais subjacentes nas mensagens de prevenção do HIV/Aids. Pautar se a mídia considerou os rumos da epidemia na medida em que essa ia se modificando; refletir se as campanhas educativas do HIV/Aids ponderavam as assimetrias de gênero, a sexualidade e os processos de socialização.The present article tries to question the mission of the media before the epidemic of HIV/AIDS. The whole discussion is supposed, in the light of the bioethics, to try to apprehend the tenor of the messages transmitted in the context of the disease. To discuss if the media had considered the different ways of the epidemic while they were being modified; to think if the HIV/AIDS educative campaigns had considered the gender differences, the sexuality and the socialization process.

  1. An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

    2010-10-01

    Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV

  2. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  3. Exceptional phenomenology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aggerholm, Kenneth; Moltke Martiny, Kristian

    Phenomenological research is in traditional terms a matter of going 'back to the things themselves', as Husserl famously stated. But if phenomenology is to renew itself in creative ways and reveal new aspects of human experience it is of value to look for a certain kind of phenomena: exceptions. ...

  4. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  5. School Nutrition and Food Service Techniques for Children with Exceptional Needs: Guidelines for Food Service Personnel, Teachers, Aides, Volunteers, and Parents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gunther, Margaret L.; Troftgruben, Judith A.

    Designed to help school food service personnel, teachers, aides, and volunteers extend the benefits of the school meal program to handicapped children, this manual discusses eating problems resulting from such conditions as cerebral palsy, mental retardation, blindness, orthopedic handicaps, and other health impairments. Specific recommendations…

  6. AMERICAN EXCEPTIONALISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oana-Andreea Pirnuta

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In an interconnected world where foreign relations matter not only for resources or military alliances but also for cultural relationships, it is highly important to have a better understanding of the power relations among nations. The information carries certain meanings that have important outcomes thus defining the power of a given nation. Foreign policy is the channel through which global politics is exercised. International politics is a hierarchy of power being determined by important cultural, economic as well as geographical aspects. The reasons and strategies that are used in order to reach the outcomes in global politics represent the focus of the present paper. The United States has been the leader in international politics since the early 20th century due to its vast resources and wealth as well as its cultural output. America’s interest in preserving a democratic and free world has its foundation in the beliefs and values it stands for the aim of this paper is to question whether or not there is a concrete premise for the idea of American exceptionalism.

  7. Embodied history. Uniqueness and exemplarity of South African AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fassin, Didier

    2002-01-01

    The exceptionality of AIDS in South Africa, both for its epidemiological features and public controversies, seems to have its correspondence in the exceptionalism of South African history, with its unprecedented regime of apartheid and its unexpected turn to democracy. The article shows that AIDS in this country can simultaneously be seen as unique (because of the historical context in which it is inscribed) and exemplar (of social determinants observed in other countries characterised by similar past or present of domination). As an alternative to cultural and behavioural models of the epidemic which have been widely spread on the African continent, the concept of embodiment of history is proposed in order to account for both the structural facts underlying the epidemic (inequality, violence, migration) and the construction of collective as well as individual narratives of the disease (including victimisation and accusation).

  8. Can churches play a role in combating the HIV/AIDS epidemic? A study of the attitudes of christian religious leaders in Madagascar.

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    Jerry S Rakotoniana

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Churches occupy an important social and cultural position in Madagascar. The sexual transmission of HIV raises controversies about the role that Churches can play in preventing HIV/AIDS. This cross-sectional survey investigated recommendations by religious leaders for condom use and other preventive strategies in the context of international guidelines. METHODS: A questionnaire was self-administered to a random sample of religious leaders. The questions related to preventive methods against HIV/AIDS such as: condom use, marital fidelity, sexual abstinence before marriage, and HIV-testing. Associations with recommendations for condom use were evaluated using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. RESULTS: Of 231 religious leaders, 215 (93.1% were willing to share their knowledge of HIV/AIDS with their congregations. The majority received their information from the media (N=136, 58.9%, a minority from their church (N=9, 3.9%, and 38 (16.4% had received prior training on HIV. Nearly all (N=212, 91.8% knew that HIV could be sexually transmitted though only a few (N=39, 16.9% were aware of mother-to-child transmission or unsafe injections (N=56, 24.2%. A total of 91 (39.4% were willing to, or had recommended (N=64, 27.7%, condom use, while 50 (21.6% had undergone HIV testing. Only nine (3.9% had ever cared for a person living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV. Multivariable logistic regression shows that condom use recommendations by religious leaders were negatively associated with tertiary level education (OR: 0.3, 95% CI 0.1-0.7, and positively associated with knowing a person at risk (OR: 16.2, 95% CI 3.2-80.2, knowing of an ART center (OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.4-4.8, and receiving information about HIV at school (OR: 2.6, 95% CI 1.2-5.6. CONCLUSIONS: Malagasy church leaders could potentially become key players in HIV/AIDS prevention if they improved their knowledge of the illness, their commitment to international recommendations

  9. Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

  10. Tendência da epidemia de casos de aids no Sul do Brasil no período de 1986 a 2008 Tendencia de la epidemia de casos de sida en el Sur de Brasil en el período de 1986 a 2008 Trends in the epidemic of Aids cases in Southern Brazil from 1986 to 2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Flaviane Mello Lazarini

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available OBJETIVO: Descrever a tendência dos casos de aids por sexo e faixa etária de 1986 a 2008. MÉTODOS: Foi analisada a tendência da aids por faixa etária e por sexo, em Londrina, PR, em dois períodos: 1986-1995 e 1996-2008. Dentre os modelos polinomiais, o de primeiro grau explicou melhor a tendência da epidemia da aids nos dois períodos. Foram calculadas as taxas de incidência para homens que fazem sexo com homens (HSH, usuários de drogas injetáveis (UDI, homens heterossexuais e mulheres. RESULTADOS: No primeiro período, de 1986 a 1995, houve incremento das taxas de incidência em quase todas as faixas etárias e crescimento da epidemia em ambos os sexos (p OBJETIVO: Describir la tendencia de los casos de sida por sexo y grupo etario de 1986 a 2008. MÉTODOS: Se analizó la tendencia de sida por grupo etario y por sexo, en Londrina, PR, Brasil, en dos períodos: 1986-1995 y 1996-2008. Entre los modelos polinomiales, o de primer grado explicó mejor la tendencia de la epidemia de sida en los dos períodos. Se calcularon las tasas de incidencia para hombres que tienen sexo con hombres (HSH, usuarios de drogas inyectables (UDI, hombres heterosexuales y mujeres. RESULTADOS: En el primer período, de 1986 a 1995, hubo incremento de las tasas de incidencia en casi todas los grupos etarios y crecimiento de la epidemia en ambos sexos (p OBJECTIVE: To describe trends in the incidence of Aids cases according to age and gender from 1986 to 2008. METHODS: Analyses of Aids trends according to age group and to gender was carried out Londrina, Southern Brazil. The timeframe was divided into two periods (1986-1995 and 1996-2008. Of the polynomial models, it was the first-degree polynomial model which best explained the Aids epidemic within the two periods. The incidence rate of Aids among men who have sex with other men (MSM, injecting drug users (IDU, heterosexual men and women was calculated. RESULTS: During the first period, from 1986 to 1995, there

  11. Snakebites: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Snakebites: First aid Snakebites: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff Most North American snakes aren't dangerous to humans. Some exceptions include the rattlesnake, coral snake, water moccasin ...

  12. What Is Required to End the AIDS Epidemic as a Public Health Threat by 2030? The Cost and Impact of the Fast-Track Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Stover

    Full Text Available In 2011 a new Investment Framework was proposed that described how the scale-up of key HIV interventions could dramatically reduce new HIV infections and AIDS-related deaths in low and middle income countries by 2015. This framework included ambitious coverage goals for prevention and treatment services for 2015, resulting in a reduction of new HIV infections by more than half, in line with the goals of the declaration of the UN High Level Meeting in June 2011. However, the approach suggested a leveling in the number of new infections at about 1 million annually-far from the UNAIDS goal of ending AIDS by 2030. In response, UNAIDS has developed the Fast-Track approach that is intended to provide a roadmap to the actions required to achieve this goal. The Fast-Track approach is predicated on a rapid scale-up of focused, effective prevention and treatment services over the next 5 years and then maintaining a high level of programme implementation until 2030. Fast-Track aims to reduce new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 90% from 2010 to 2030 and proposes a set of biomedical, behavioral and enabling intervention targets for 2020 and 2030 to achieve that goal, including the rapid scale-up initiative for antiretroviral treatment known as 90-90-90. Compared to a counterfactual scenario of constant coverage for all services at early-2015 levels, the Fast-Track approach would avert 18 million HIV infections and 11 million deaths from 2016 to 2030 globally. This paper describes the analysis that produced these targets and the estimated resources needed to achieve them in low- and middle-income countries. It indicates that it is possible to achieve these goals with a significant push to achieve rapid scale-up of key interventions between now and 2020. The annual resources required from all sources would rise to US$7.4Bn in low-income countries, US$8.2Bn in lower middle-income countries and US$10.5Bn in upper-middle-income-countries by 2020 before

  13. “Tutti loro erano persone vere”. Il problema della rappresentazione dell’AIDS nella poesia di Hezy Leskly

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sara Ferrari

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this lecture is to explore the question of representing AIDS in the poetry of Hezy Leskly, namely in the book, Sotim yekarim, "Dear perverts", his fourth and last collection which has been published after his death in 1994. Contrarily to what one could have expected, representations of AIDS and references to this disease are almost totally absent from the book, except in the last poem, Yitzkhak. Nevertheless, although Hezy Leskly explicitly writes on the subject only once, AIDS, or better, the malaise generated by AIDS epidemic, permeates the whole book being an integral part of Leskly's poetic discourse.

  14. AIDS and Chemical Dependency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, Melvin I.

    After defining HIV and the AIDS disease and outlining symptoms and means of infection, this fact sheet lists the ways alcohol and drugs are involved with the AIDS epidemic, noting that needle-sharing transmits the virus; that alcohol or mood-altering drugs like crack cocaine cause disinhibition, increase sex drive, encourage sex for drugs, and…

  15. History of the HIV epidemic and response in Swaziland

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    that self-stigma, multiple concurrent partnerships and short-term relationships, decision on condom use and ... This prevents MSM from seeking health services. To .... 90-90-90: An ambitious treatment target to help end the AIDS epidemic.

  16. AIDS wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Several evidences were presented during the meeting in London entitled "Origins of AIDS and the HIV epidemic," debating the idea that AIDS was an accidental result of a polio vaccination campaign conducted by a virologist, Hilary Koprowski, and colleagues in the late 1950s among thousands of people in the Belgian Congo. The meeting carefully examined the CHAT theory presented by a writer, Edward Hooper, in his book "The River" and has raised questions on the correlation between vaccination sites and early records of HIV-1, and on the estimated amount of HIV particles that would get through each stage of the process of creating CHAT. Overall, the meeting agreed to reject the CHAT theory of AIDS for it has no basis, since Koprowski and colleagues denied the use of chimpanzee kidneys, which Hooper openly suggests in his book. The meeting noted that the disease's origins remain a mystery.

  17. O papel das ONGs na construção de políticas de saúde: a Aids, a saúde da mulher e a saúde mental The role of NGOs in designing public health policies: the Aids epidemic, women's health and mental health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sílvia Ramos

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Este artigo analisa iniciativas da sociedade civil na elaboração de políticas de saúde no Brasil a partir do exame de três casos em que a atuação de organizações não-governamentais teve papel relevante nas três últimas décadas: a epidemia de Aids, a saúde da mulher e a reforma psiquiátrica. Situa o surgimento das ONGs no contexto dos movimentos de participação civil no Brasil, identifica suas características distintivas em relação a outras formas de associação e compara as trajetórias específicas nos casos da Aids, da saúde da mulher e do movimento psiquiátrico. O texto indica dilemas comuns ao campo das organizações não-governamentais no final dos anos 90 e aponta a necessidade de estudos sobre a participação de organizações da sociedade civil no desenvolvimento de políticas sociais, em especial das políticas contra a violência.This article evaluates a series of civil society initiatives concerning the design of Brazilian public health policies stemming from the analysis of three cases in which non-governmental organizations played a significant role in the three last decades: the Aids epidemic, women's health and the psychiatric reform. It studies the birth of NGOs in the context of civil society participation in the country, it identifies its distinctive characteristics in relation to other forms of association and it compares their specific paths in the case of Aids, women's health and the psychiatric movement. It points to common dilemmas in the field of NGOs at the end of the 1990's and the need for studies about the participation of civil society organizations in the development of social public policies, specially in the area of public policies concerning violence.

  18. The HIV/AIDS epidemic and changes in injecting drug use in Buenos Aires, Argentina La epidemia de VIH/SIDA y los cambios en el uso inyectable de drogas en Buenos Aires, Argentina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Rossi

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the changes in injecting drug use from 1998 to 2003 in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The Rapid Situation Assessment and Response methodology was used to obtain the information. Quantitative and qualitative techniques were triangulated: 140 current IDUs and 35 sex partners of injection drug users (IDUs were surveyed; 17 in-depth interviews with the surveyed IDUs and 2 focus groups were held, as well as ethnographic observations. The way in which risk and care practices among injecting drug users changed and the influence of the HIV/ AIDS epidemic on this process are described. In recent years, the frequency of injection practices and sharing of injecting equipment has decreased, while injecting drug use is a more hidden practice in a context of increasing impact of the disease in the injecting drug use social networks and changes in the price and quality of drugs. Knowledge about these changes helps build harm reduction activities oriented to IDUs in their particular social context.Este artículo refleja los cambios en el uso inyectable de drogas producidos entre 1998 y 2003 en Buenos Aires, Argentina. Para obtener la información se empleó la metodología de Evaluación y Respuesta Rápida, triangulando técnicas cuantitativas y cualitativas. Durante 2003-2004 se realizaron encuestas a 140 usuarios de drogas inyectables (UDIs actuales y a 35 parejas sexuales de UDIs. De este universo, 17 UDIs fueron entrevistados en profundidad; se formaron dos grupos de discusión y observaciones etnográficas. Se describe el modo en que cambiaron las prácticas de cuidado y riesgo en el uso inyectable y la influencia de la epidemia de VIH/SIDA en este proceso. En los últimos años disminuyó la frecuencia de uso y del uso compartido de material de inyección, se incrementó el ocultamiento del uso inyectable; en un contexto de fuerte impacto de la enfermedad en el entorno cercano a los UDIs y de un cambio en la relación precio-calidad de

  19. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... the SID model’s behavior and impact on the network performance, as well as the severity of the infection spreading. The simulations are carried out in OPNET Modeler. The model provides an important input to epidemic connection recovery mechanisms, and can due to its flexibility and versatility be used...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  20. Le pluralisme médicamenteux face à l’épidémie de VIH/sida au Viêt Nam Drug Pluralism Confronted by HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Viêt Nam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marie-Ève Blanc

    2012-10-01

    populaires.This article deals with the place of drug pluralism in Viêt Nam in the context of HIV/AIDS epidemic and the implementation of a new policy on pharmaceuticals which leads to the regulation of the traditional medicines. One of the principal problems in the management of HIV/AIDS in Viêt Nam was the absence of adapted, effective and accessible drugs. On the other hand, contrary to China, Viêt Nam moved towards a local production of generic drugs to meet the local needs and to lower the cost of HIV/AIDS treatment and care. Using a Vietnamese newspaper content analysis on this subject, we will try to understand economic, cultural and political issues behind the weak development of traditional drugs within the framework of HIV/AIDS management. We will show how the Westernisation during the colonial period, the opening of the country since the 1990’s, the globalisation (seen here like the multiplication of the exchanges with the Western countries and the integration of Viêt Nam to the rest of the world and the ASEAN and the life-cycle of pharmaceutical drugs, modified the recourse to drug pluralism as well as the national policy regarding health, with implications on the people’s practices (ways to heal in the medium and long term.

  1. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  2. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  3. Anticipating the Social Consequences of AIDS: A Position Paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berk, Richard A.; And Others

    1981-01-01

    Focuses on the social consequences of the AIDS epidemic, arguing that sociologists have an important contribution to make in planning for the long-range social consequences of AIDS. Concludes with three different commentaries on Berk's article. (Author/BSR)

  4. Traditional healers, HIV/AIDS and company programmes in South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Traditional healers' diverse and fluid beliefs about HIV and AIDS are ... healing practices could be promoted in workplace responses to HIV/AIDS. ... as help coordinate a wider and more effective response to the HIV epidemic in South Africa.

  5. An Exceptional Memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Ian M. L.

    1977-01-01

    An account is given of the exceptional memory of the late Professor A. C. Aitken who was also a distinguished mathematician and mental calculator. Compared with Shereshevskii, another man with exceptional memory, he shows the scholar's reliance on conceptual mapping rather than the mnemonist's reliance on perceptual chaining. (Editor)

  6. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...... is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism....

  7. MFTF exception handling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nowell, D.M.; Bridgeman, G.D.

    1979-01-01

    In the design of large experimental control systems, a major concern is ensuring that operators are quickly alerted to emergency or other exceptional conditions and that they are provided with sufficient information to respond adequately. This paper describes how the MFTF exception handling system satisfies these requirements. Conceptually exceptions are divided into one of two classes. Those which affect command status by producing an abort or suspend condition and those which fall into a softer notification category of report only or operator acknowledgement requirement. Additionally, an operator may choose to accept an exception condition as operational, or turn off monitoring for sensors determined to be malfunctioning. Control panels and displays used in operator response to exceptions are described

  8. HIV- and AIDS-associated cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Ellen R

    2013-04-01

    One of the most significant world epidemics in history, HIV/AIDS, has been a research priority since its discovery in 1981. This review article provides an update on HIV/AIDS, with a specific focus on the diagnosis and care of patients with HIV- and AIDS-associated cancers.

  9. National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.

  10. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.

  11. Expressão geográfica da epidemia de Aids em Campinas, São Paulo, de 1980 a 2005 Expresión geográfica de la epidemia de Sida en Campinas, Sureste de Brasil, de 1980 a 2005 Geographic expression of AIDS epidemic in Campinas, Southeastern Brazil, between 1980 and 2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Celso Stephan

    2010-10-01

    , and from 2001 to 2005. The variables included in the analysis were address, sex and age. A weighted composite index was used to study living and health conditions in the area. Patients' home addresses were geocoded on a cartographic base, after correction and standardization according to a reference database of streets. A generalized additive model was adjusted to analyze the spatial distribution of the ratio of male:female cases in space, in the three study periods. RESULTS: The ratio of male:female cases was higher in areas with better living conditions (central and around the prison (northwestern, where families of prisoners and former prisoners live temporarily, while this ratio was lower in the city suburbs (southwestern. CONCLUSIONS: The trends towards the AIDS epidemic affecting more women and poorer individuals were confirmed by the decrease in the ratio of male:female cases in the period, particularly in vulnerable and impoverished populations. Geographic information systems and spatial data analysis can be useful for AIDS control and surveillance actions.

  12. Dinâmica da epidemia de AIDS no Município do Rio de Janeiro, no período de 1988-1996: uma aplicação de análise estatística espaço-temporal Spatial-temporal modeling: dynamics of the AIDS epidemic in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 1988-1996

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Célia Landmann Szwarcwald

    2001-10-01

    Full Text Available Neste estudo, aplicou-se um modelo espaço-temporal para examinar a disseminação espacial da epidemia de AIDS entre os casos adultos do Município do Rio de Janeiro em três períodos: 1988-1990, 1991-1993 e 1994-1996. As regiões administrativas foram as unidades geográficas de estudo. Posteriormente, realizou-se análise espacial dos casos pediátricos por transmissão vertical do HIV, por período de nascimento, 1985-1990 e 1991-1996. Para a totalidade dos casos adultos, o período inicial é caracterizado por um conglomerado poligonal em torno da Zona Portuária, que se expande na direção oeste-leste. Entre os casos homossexuais, o crescimento in situ predominou, notando-se arrefecimento da disseminação espacial nos últimos anos. Entre os casos heterossexuais, a epidemia demonstrou expansão geográfica expressiva, sobretudo de 1988-1990 a 1991-1993. Entre os casos do sexo feminino, no último período, houve a formação de um conglomerado de taxas elevadas na direção noroeste, que compreende áreas muito pobres. Entre 1991 e 1996, observou-se correlação significativa das taxas de incidência de AIDS perinatal com o índice de concentração de pobreza. Os resultados sugerem que o entendimento da dinâmica espaço-temporal da epidemia pode subsidiar, de forma relevante, as ações preventivas.This study uses a spatial-temporal model to analyze the spatial spread of the AIDS epidemic (adult cases in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, during three periods: 1988-1990, 1991-1993, and 1994-1996. City districts were used as the geographic units of analysis. A spatial analysis was also performed for pediatric AIDS cases due to vertical HIV transmission, according to period of birth, 1985-90 and 1991-96. For total adult AIDS cases, the initial period was characterized by a polygonal cluster located around the harbor area, which expanded from west to east. Among homosexual cases, in situ growth predominated, and a decrease in

  13. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith; Eksin, Ceyhun; Weitz, Joshua S.; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe

  14. epidemic teach us?

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    frequently brings shame, fear and guilt: dealing with this for some will begin a process of .... 'AZT treatment will have a limited effect on the epidemic, as we are targeting ... others to make the decisions that control my life. It is ironic that a society ...

  15. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  16. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  17. Trauma - the malignant epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    national problem and the term 'malignant epidemic' is more applicable. These two ... In 1984 it stood at just over 400 000 per annum and today the figure is close to ... breadwinner, loss of productivity, expenses of rehabilitation and care of the ...

  18. Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David J Sharrow

    Full Text Available In a given population the age pattern of mortality is an important determinant of total number of deaths, age structure, and through effects on age structure, the number of births and thereby growth. Good mortality models exist for most populations except those experiencing generalized HIV epidemics and some developing country populations. The large number of deaths concentrated at very young and adult ages in HIV-affected populations produce a unique 'humped' age pattern of mortality that is not reproduced by any existing mortality models. Both burden of disease reporting and population projection methods require age-specific mortality rates to estimate numbers of deaths and produce plausible age structures. For countries with generalized HIV epidemics these estimates should take into account the future trajectory of HIV prevalence and its effects on age-specific mortality. In this paper we present a parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemics.The model represents a vector of age-specific mortality rates as the weighted sum of three independent age-varying components. We derive the age-varying components from a Singular Value Decomposition of the matrix of age-specific mortality rate schedules. The weights are modeled as a function of HIV prevalence and one of three possible sets of inputs: life expectancy at birth, a measure of child mortality, or child mortality with a measure of adult mortality. We calibrate the model with 320 five-year life tables for each sex from the World Population Prospects 2010 revision that come from the 40 countries of the world that have and are experiencing a generalized HIV epidemic. Cross validation shows that the model is able to outperform several existing model life table systems.We present a flexible, parsimonious model of age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. Combined with the outputs of existing epidemiological and

  19. Cyber Epidemic Models with Dependences

    OpenAIRE

    Xu, Maochao; Da, Gaofeng; Xu, Shouhuai

    2016-01-01

    Studying models of cyber epidemics over arbitrary complex networks can deepen our understanding of cyber security from a whole-system perspective. In this paper, we initiate the investigation of cyber epidemic models that accommodate the {\\em dependences} between the cyber attack events. Due to the notorious difficulty in dealing with such dependences, essentially all existing cyber epidemic models have assumed them away. Specifically, we introduce the idea of Copulas into cyber epidemic mode...

  20. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  1. Implementing AIDS Education

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grace C. Huerta

    1996-08-01

    Full Text Available The world has been challenged by the AIDS epidemic for 15 years. In 1985, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Centers for Disease Control, allocated funds to all state departments of education to assist schools in the development of AIDS education policies and programs. Yet, these policies do not ensure that all students receive effective AIDS education. On September 21, 1991, the Arizona Legislature passed Senate Bill 1396, which requires public schools to annually provide AIDS education in grades K-12. The bill was rescinded in 1995. With prohibitive curriculum guidelines, limited teacher training opportunities and tremendous instructional demands, this educational policy was implemented in disparate forms. By examining the perspectives of the Arizona educators (representing three school districts, this qualitative study reveals how teachers ultimately controlled the delivery and nature of AIDS instruction based upon personal values, views of teacher roles, and their interpretation of the mandate itself.

  2. Inaugural Lecture - Janet Seeley: Thirty years in the shadow of an epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Seeley, J

    2015-01-01

    Janet Seeley, Professor of Anthropology and Health, looks at the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Uganda. Introduction by Anne Mills, Deputy Director & Provost and Professor of Health Economics and Policy.

  3. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  4. Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Epidemiological and demographic HIV/AIDS projections: South Africa. ... African Journal of AIDS Research ... Projections and the Spectrum model program developed by the Futures Group were used to model the South African HIV epidemic, project future trends in HIV/AIDS and estimate the demographic impact of AIDS.

  5. Epidemics on interconnected networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark; Havlin, S.; Stanley, H. E.

    2012-06-01

    Populations are seldom completely isolated from their environment. Individuals in a particular geographic or social region may be considered a distinct network due to strong local ties but will also interact with individuals in other networks. We study the susceptible-infected-recovered process on interconnected network systems and find two distinct regimes. In strongly coupled network systems, epidemics occur simultaneously across the entire system at a critical infection strength βc, below which the disease does not spread. In contrast, in weakly coupled network systems, a mixed phase exists below βc of the coupled network system, where an epidemic occurs in one network but does not spread to the coupled network. We derive an expression for the network and disease parameters that allow this mixed phase and verify it numerically. Public health implications of communities comprising these two classes of network systems are also mentioned.

  6. Epidemic assistance by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: role of the Epidemic Intelligence Service, 1946-2005.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thacker, Stephen B; Stroup, Donna F; Sencer, David J

    2011-12-01

    Since 1946, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has responded to urgent requests from US states, federal agencies, and international organizations through epidemic-assistance investigations (Epi-Aids). The authors describe the first 60 years of Epi-Aids, breadth of problems addressed, evolution of methodologies, scope of activities, and impact of investigations on population health. They reviewed Epi-Aid reports and EIS Bulletins, contacted current and former Epidemic Intelligence Service staff, and systematically searched the PubMed and Web of Science databases. They abstracted information on dates, location, staff involved, health problems, methods, and impacts of investigations according to a preplanned protocol. They assessed the methods presented as well as the quality of reports. During 1946-2005, a total of 4,484 investigations of health events were initiated by 2,815 Epidemic Intelligence Service officers. In the early years, the majority were in response to infectious agents, although environmental problems emerged. Investigations in subsequent years focused on occupational conditions, birth defects, reproductive health, tobacco use, cancer, violence, legal debate, and terrorism. These Epi-Aids heralded expansion of the agency's mission and presented new methods in statistics and epidemiology. Recommendations from Epi-Aids led to policy implementation, evaluation, or modification. Epi-Aids provide the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention with the agility to respond rapidly to public health crises.

  7. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  8. On exceptional instanton strings

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Del Zotto, M.; Lockhart, G.

    According to a recent classification of 6d (1, 0) theories within F-theory there are only six “pure” 6d gauge theories which have a UV superconformal fixed point. The corresponding gauge groups are SU(3), SO(8), F4, E6, E7, and E8. These exceptional models have BPS strings which are also instantons

  9. Nothing Exceptional: Against Agamben

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colatrella, Steven

    2011-01-01

    Giorgio Agamben's work has become widely influential as a guide to explaining the extra-constitutional powers assumed by governments under the rubric of the War on Terror. His formulations, such as Homo Sacer and State of Exception, have been extended to apply to a wide variety of experiences of repression of liberties or social control, including…

  10. Exceptionalism and globalism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Cairns Jr

    2001-03-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Achieving sustainable use of the planet will require ethical judgments in both sciences and environmental politics. The purpose of this editorial is to discuss two paradigms, exceptionalism and globalism, that are important in this regard. Exceptionalism is the insistence that one set of rules or behaviors is acceptable for an individual or country but that a different set should be used for the rest of the world. For example, the disparity in per capita consumption of resources and economic status has increased dramatically in the last century, but the consumers of great amounts of resources do not feel a proportionate responsibility for addressing this issue. Globalism is defined as individual and societal willingness to diminish, postpone or forgo individual natural resource use to protect and enhance the integrity of the global ecological life support system. Increasing affluence and the still increasing human population, coupled with wide dissemination of information and an increasing awareness that humans occupy a finite planet, exacerbate this already difficult situation. Increased interest in sustainable use of the planet makes open discussion of these issues mandatory because individuals cannot function in isolation from the larger society of which they are a part. Similarly, no country can function in isolation from other countries, which collectively form an interactive mosaic. This discussion identifies some of the crucial issues related to exceptionalism and globalism, which must be addressed before sustainable use of the planet can be achieved.

  11. Epidemic as a natural process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koivu-Jolma, Mikko; Annila, Arto

    2018-05-01

    Mathematical epidemiology is a well-recognized discipline to model infectious diseases. It also provides guidance for public health officials to limit outbreaks. Nevertheless, epidemics take societies by surprise every now and then, for example, when the Ebola virus epidemic raged seemingly unrestrained in Western Africa. We provide insight to this capricious character of nature by describing the epidemic as a natural process, i.e., a phenomenon governed by thermodynamics. Our account, based on statistical mechanics of open systems, clarifies that it is impossible to predict accurately epidemic courses because everything depends on everything else. Nonetheless, the thermodynamic theory yields a comprehensive and analytical view of the epidemic. The tenet subsumes various processes in a scale-free manner from the molecular to the societal levels. The holistic view accentuates overarching procedures in arresting and eradicating epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Epidemics spread in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capała, Karol; Dybiec, Bartłomiej

    2017-05-01

    Individuals building populations are subject to variability. This variability affects progress of epidemic outbreaks, because individuals tend to be more or less resistant. Individuals also differ with respect to their recovery rate. Here, properties of the SIR model in inhomogeneous populations are studied. It is shown that a small change in model's parameters, e.g. recovery or infection rate, can substantially change properties of final states which is especially well-visible in distributions of the epidemic size. In addition to the epidemic size and radii distributions, the paper explores first passage time properties of epidemic outbreaks.

  13. Is India the Exception?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Klaus; Storm, Rasmus K.

    2013-01-01

    in international sport events a similar impact of extraordinary growth rates has been almost totally absent in the case of India. Is India an exception? Several econometric studies have shown that income per capita is a significant variable explaining elite sport results such as results in the Olympic Games. From...... in the sports of the Olympic Summer Games. The findings show only a very weak correlation, if any at all. However, a detailed analysis of country evidence shows interesting trends and details. The paper concludes with tentative explanations for the findings including the contradictory country evidence....

  14. HIV/AIDS AND THE RELIGIOUS LEADERS

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    OLUDURO

    Arguably, no religion is free from this epidemic ...... 89 There have been documented reports in Burundi and Malaysia of couples offering fake HIV/AIDS ..... Sidibé M 2010 Having faith: The global challenge of HIV and AIDS (Speech delivered.

  15. Is India the Exception?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Klaus; Storm, Rasmus K.

    India is still the extreme under-achiever in international sport competitions. Whereas in China high growth rates have been accompanied by a huge improvement in its ranking in international sport events a similar impact of extraordinary growth rates is seemingly totally absent in the case of India....... Is India an exception? Several econometric studies have shown that income per capita is a significant variable explaining elite sport results such as results in the Olympic Games. From this stylized fact follows the hypothesis that 'above/below average' growth rates lead to relative improvements...... between growth in GNP per capita and growth in medal points (no. 1: five points, no. 2: three points, no.3: two points) in Olympic Summer Games. The findings show no correlation and in a few calculations a very weak correlation. Among the countries behaving in accordance with the hypothesis in the most...

  16. Epidemic modeling in complex realities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colizza, Vittoria; Barthélemy, Marc; Barrat, Alain; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2007-04-01

    In our global world, the increasing complexity of social relations and transport infrastructures are key factors in the spread of epidemics. In recent years, the increasing availability of computer power has enabled both to obtain reliable data allowing one to quantify the complexity of the networks on which epidemics may propagate and to envision computational tools able to tackle the analysis of such propagation phenomena. These advances have put in evidence the limits of homogeneous assumptions and simple spatial diffusion approaches, and stimulated the inclusion of complex features and heterogeneities relevant in the description of epidemic diffusion. In this paper, we review recent progresses that integrate complex systems and networks analysis with epidemic modelling and focus on the impact of the various complex features of real systems on the dynamics of epidemic spreading.

  17. Epidemics after Natural Disasters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gayer, Michelle; Connolly, Maire A.

    2007-01-01

    The relationship between natural disasters and communicable diseases is frequently misconstrued. The risk for outbreaks is often presumed to be very high in the chaos that follows natural disasters, a fear likely derived from a perceived association between dead bodies and epidemics. However, the risk factors for outbreaks after disasters are associated primarily with population displacement. The availability of safe water and sanitation facilities, the degree of crowding, the underlying health status of the population, and the availability of healthcare services all interact within the context of the local disease ecology to influence the risk for communicable diseases and death in the affected population. We outline the risk factors for outbreaks after a disaster, review the communicable diseases likely to be important, and establish priorities to address communicable diseases in disaster settings. PMID:17370508

  18. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  19. Solidarity and AIDS: introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, N

    1991-01-01

    Perhaps more than any other disease in recent history, AIDS has taught a cruel and crucial lesson: the constraints on our response to this epidemic are as deep as our denial, as entrenched as the inequities that permeate our society, as circumscribed as our knowledge, and as unlimited as our compassion and our commitment to human rights. Elaborating on these themes, the final three articles in this Special Section on AIDS consider three widely divergent yet intimately connected topics: AIDS in Cuba, AIDS in Brazil, and global AIDS prevention in the 1990s. Together, they caution that if we persist in treating AIDS as a problem only of "others," no country will be spared the social and economic devastation that promises to be the cost of our contempt and our folly. Solidarity is not an option; it is a necessity. Without conscious recognition of the worldwide relationship between health, human rights, and social inequalities, our attempts to abate the spread of AIDS--and to ease the suffering that follows in its wake--most surely will fall short of our goals. Finally, as we mourn our dead, we must take to heart the words of Mother Jones, and "fight like hell for living." This is the politics of survival.

  20. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in Grenada: A cross-sectional approach used to measure response variation regarding sexual behavior and health depending on the method of data collection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaudhry, Muhammad Reza; Husain, Faisal; Armstrong, Elan G; Ferguson, James A

    2018-06-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the association between high-risk sexual behavior in relation to HIV transmission and prevalence among different groups of people in Grenada. In addition, this study intends to increase the involvement and improved services by Grenadian chapter of the Caribbean HIV/AIDS Partnership (GrenCHAP).A cross-sectional study was conducted over a 2-month period in Grenada, West Indies, to measure the responsive nature of different populations to an inquiry about HIV and sexual behavior. The 2 methods used to collect the data were online (via social media) and through an in-person interaction with local NGO GrenCHAP personnel. Survey responses were recorded via SurveyMonkey ending on April 11, 2014.The findings of the study were that there was an increased degree of frankness and demographic diversity in participants who responded online as opposed to in-person.People who responded online were more likely to engage in high-risk sexual behavior. GrenCHAP has the opportunity to contribute in the collection of invaluable data concerning HIV and other STIs because of its NGO status and anonymity.

  1. A epidemia de aids no Estado de São Paulo: uma aplicação do modelo espaço-temporal bayesiano completo The aids epidemic in the State of São Paulo: application of the full Bayesian space-time model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rogério Ruscitto do Prado

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available O Estado de São Paulo, por compreender aproximadamente 40% dos casos de aids notificados no Brasil, oferece uma situação propícia para análise espaço-temporal, visando melhor compreensão da disseminação do HIV/aids. Utilizando os casos de aids notificados ao Ministério da Saúde nos anos de 1990 a 2004 para pessoas com idade igual ou superior a 15 anos, tendo como fonte de informação o Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, Ministério da Saúde, foram estimados os riscos relativos de aids segundo sexo para períodos de 3 anos utilizando modelos bayesianos completos. Os modelos utilizados se mostraram adequados para explicar o processo de disseminação da aids no Estado de São Paulo e evidenciam os processos de feminização e interiorização da doença, além de sugerir que os municípios atualmente mais atingidos se encontram em regiões de pólos de crescimento econômico e possuem população inferior a 50.000 habitantes.The State of São Paulo accounts for approximately 40% of the AIDS cases notified in Brazil and provides a suitable opportunity for space-time analysis aimed at better understanding of the dissemination of HIV/AIDS. Using the AIDS cases notified to the Ministry of Health between 1990 and 2004, among individuals aged 15 years or over, and the Ministry of Health's information system for disease notification (Sistema de Informação de Agravos e Notificação, SINAN as the information source, the relative risks of AIDS over three-year periods were estimated using full Bayesian models, for each gender. The models used were shown to be adequate for explaining the process of AIDS dissemination in the State of São Paulo and demonstrated the growth among females and in small-sized municipalities. They also suggested that the municipalities currently most affected are in regions of economic growth and have populations of less than 50,000 inhabitants.

  2. Exceptional composite dark matter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ballesteros, Guillermo [Universite Paris Saclay, CEA, CNRS, Institut de Physique Theorique, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Carmona, Adrian [CERN, Theoretical Physics Department, Geneva (Switzerland); Chala, Mikael [Universitat de Valencia y IFIC, Universitat de Valencia-CSIC, Departament de Fisica Teorica, Burjassot, Valencia (Spain)

    2017-07-15

    We study the dark matter phenomenology of non-minimal composite Higgs models with SO(7) broken to the exceptional group G{sub 2}. In addition to the Higgs, three pseudo-Nambu-Goldstone bosons arise, one of which is electrically neutral. A parity symmetry is enough to ensure this resonance is stable. In fact, if the breaking of the Goldstone symmetry is driven by the fermion sector, this Z{sub 2} symmetry is automatically unbroken in the electroweak phase. In this case, the relic density, as well as the expected indirect, direct and collider signals are then uniquely determined by the value of the compositeness scale, f. Current experimental bounds allow one to account for a large fraction of the dark matter of the Universe if the dark matter particle is part of an electroweak triplet. The totality of the relic abundance can be accommodated if instead this particle is a composite singlet. In both cases, the scale f and the dark matter mass are of the order of a few TeV. (orig.)

  3. New Nordic Exceptionalism

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Danbolt, Mathias

    2016-01-01

    At the 2009 Nordic Culture Forum summit in Berlin that centered on the profiling and branding of the Nordic region in a globalized world, one presenter stood out from the crowd. The lobbyist Annika Sigurdardottir delivered a speech that called for the establishment of “The United Nations of Norden...... that have been central to the debates on the branding of Nordicity over the last decades: on the one hand, the discourse of “Nordic exceptionalism,” that since the 1960s has been central to the promotion of a Nordic political, socio-economic, and internationalist “third way” model, and, on the other hand......, the discourse on the “New Nordic,” that emerged out of the New Nordic Food-movement in the early 2000s, and which has given art and culture a privileged role in the international re-fashioning of the Nordic brand. Through an analysis of Kim and Einhorn’s United Nations of Norden (UNN)-performance, the article...

  4. Gendered vulnerability to AIDS and its research implications

    OpenAIRE

    Wiegers, E.S.

    2008-01-01

    According to the various studies, AIDS affects all facets of people’s livelihoods through illness and death and the subsequent care for orphaned children. Much of this literature uses rural households affected by HIV/AIDS as the unit of analysis and do not disaggregate data by hosting orphans, AIDS-related chronic illness and AIDS death. However, the AIDS epidemic has resulted in increased appearance of households headed by widows, elderly and orphans; households with orphaned children; house...

  5. Silence, blame and AIDS conspiracy theories among the Xhosa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Conspiratorial expressions about the origins of HIV/AIDS have been recognised as an outcome of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa. This article examines the reasons behind AIDS conspiracy theories, which include a reoccurring repertory of themes, motifs and characters. In these expressions, the malevolent antagonist is ...

  6. Islamic perspectives on HIV/AIDS and antiretroviral treatment: the ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Some religious reactions to the HIV epidemic in Africa unwittingly contributed to the expansion of the epidemic in its early years. This was because many religious people regarded the emergence of HIV and AIDS as divine punishment for man's sins as a result of people's sexual promiscuity. Some also opposed public ...

  7. The interesting cross-paths of HIV/AIDS and water in Southern Africa ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV/AIDS and water-borne diseases account for a substantial degree of morbidity and mortality in different age groups across the globe, but their ripple effects are more devastating in developing countries. Estimates of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa vary but attest to a mature and generalised epidemic. Antenatal ...

  8. HIV / AIDS And The Socio – Economic Status Of Victims In Oyo State ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Owing to the ferocious spread of HIV / AIDS and the soaring cases of ill – halth and impending death associated with the epidemic in Nigeria, this study assesses the impact of HIV / AIDS on the socio – economic status. Specifically, it examines the effects of the epidemic on the level of imcome, level of productivity, marital ...

  9. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M

    2016-10-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible-infectious-removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  10. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone; Moghadas, Seyed M.

    2016-01-01

    Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number generally assume exponential growth in case incidence in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other mechanisms. Here, we introduce the generalized growth model to characterize the early growth profile of outbreaks and estimate the effective reproduction number, with no need for explicit assumptions about the shape of epidemic growth. We demonstrate this phenomenological approach using analytical results and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible–infectious–removed model result in subexponential growth, and in turn a rapid decline in the reproduction number within three to five disease generations. For empirical outbreaks, the generalized-growth model consistently outperforms the exponential model for a variety of directly and indirectly transmitted diseases datasets (pandemic influenza, measles, smallpox, bubonic plague, cholera, foot-and-mouth disease, HIV/AIDS and Ebola) with model estimates supporting subexponential growth dynamics. The rapid decline in effective reproduction number predicted by analytical results and observed in real and synthetic datasets within three to five disease generations contrasts with the expectation of invariant reproduction number in epidemics obeying exponential growth. The

  11. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  12. [Epidemic parotiditis, a reportable disease].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boverhoff, J C; Baart, J A

    2013-01-01

    Three consecutive patients with an acute swelling of one of the cheeks, were diagnosed with epidemic parotiditis. The first phase of the diagnostic procedure for an acute cheek swelling is to eliminate the possibility of odontogenic causes. When odontogenic problems have been excluded, non-dentition-related causes may be considered. An acute, progressive swelling in the preauricular area can often be attributed to an inflammation of the parotid gland, but epidemic parotiditis should also be considered. Epidemic parotiditis, or mumps, is caused by the mumps virus. Contamination occurs aerogenically. In the Netherlands, mumps vaccine is an ingredient of the governmental combined mump-measles-rubella inoculation programme. However, in recent years several small-scale parotiditis epidemics have broken out, predominantly among young, inoculated adults. Oropharyngeal mucus and blood samples are needed to diagnose the disease. Each case of the disease should be reported to the community healthcare service.

  13. From epidemics to information propagation: Striking differences in structurally similar adaptive network models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trajanovski, Stojan; Guo, Dongchao; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2015-09-01

    The continuous-time adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) epidemic model and the adaptive information diffusion (AID) model are two adaptive spreading processes on networks, in which a link in the network changes depending on the infectious state of its end nodes, but in opposite ways: (i) In the ASIS model a link is removed between two nodes if exactly one of the nodes is infected to suppress the epidemic, while a link is created in the AID model to speed up the information diffusion; (ii) a link is created between two susceptible nodes in the ASIS model to strengthen the healthy part of the network, while a link is broken in the AID model due to the lack of interest in informationless nodes. The ASIS and AID models may be considered as first-order models for cascades in real-world networks. While the ASIS model has been exploited in the literature, we show that the AID model is realistic by obtaining a good fit with Facebook data. Contrary to the common belief and intuition for such similar models, we show that the ASIS and AID models exhibit different but not opposite properties. Most remarkably, a unique metastable state always exists in the ASIS model, while there an hourglass-shaped region of instability in the AID model. Moreover, the epidemic threshold is a linear function in the effective link-breaking rate in the AID model, while it is almost constant but noisy in the AID model.

  14. HIV/AIDS: A Nontraditional Security Threat for AFRICOM

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Letcher, Kenneth W

    2008-01-01

    .... Africa Command must navigate. The study will draw on research of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and its effect on the effectiveness of the militaries of southern Africa, leaning heavily on the research of Stefan Elbe and a small cadre...

  15. The worldwide obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, P T; Leach, R; Kalamara, E; Shayeghi, M

    2001-11-01

    The recent World Health Organization (WHO) agreement on the standardized classification of overweight and obese, based on body mass index (BMI), allows a comparable analysis of prevalence rates worldwide for the first time. In Asia, however, there is a demand for a more limited range for normal BMIs (i.e., 18.5 to 22.9 kg/m(2) rather than 18.5 to 24.9 kg/m(2)) because of the high prevalence of comorbidities, particularly diabetes and hypertension. In children, the International Obesity Task-Force age-, sex-, and BMI-specific cutoff points are increasingly being used. We are currently evaluating BMI data globally as part of a new millennium analysis of the Global Burden of Disease. WHO is analyzing data in terms of 20 or more principal risk factors contributing to the primary causes of disability and lost lives in the 191 countries within the WHO. The prevalence rates for overweight and obese people are different in each region, with the Middle East, Central and Eastern Europe, and North America having higher prevalence rates. In most countries, women show a greater BMI distribution with higher obesity rates than do men. Obesity is usually now associated with poverty, even in developing countries. Relatively new data suggest that abdominal obesity in adults, with its associated enhanced morbidity, occurs particularly in those who had lower birth weights and early childhood stunting. Waist measurements in nationally representative studies are scarce but will now be needed to estimate the full impact of the worldwide obesity epidemic.

  16. [The cholera epidemic in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olsvik, O

    1992-05-30

    An outbreak of cholera started in Peru in January 1991 and spread through most Latin American countries within a year. This was the first known epidemic of cholera in America for more than a century. In 1991, 321,334 persons were reported to have cholera in Peru, 119,063 were hospitalized, and 2,906 died. Other countries like Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala, Brazil, Mexico, Bolivia, Chile, El Salvador, Venezuela and Honduras were also affected, but these countries combined accounted for only 20% of the cases registered in Peru. In April 1992, all Latin American countries except Uruguay, Paraguay and French Guyana have reported cholera. The mortality rate for the epidemic in Latin America was only 1%, mainly owing to good oral rehydration treatment provided by Local health services and the Pan American Health Organization. The causative organism was Vibrio cholerae, serogroup O1, serotype Inaba (and Ogawa) of the El Tor biotype. Genetic characterization shows this strain to be unique, and the designation is reserved for the Latin American strain, distinguishing it from the other El Tor isolates from the 7th pandemic.

  17. AIDS in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokhobo, D

    1989-03-01

    Numerous cultural practices and attitudes in Africa represent formidable obstacles to the prevention of the further spread of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). Polygamy and concubinage are still widely practiced throughout Africa. In fact, sexual promiscuity on the part of males is traditionally viewed as positive--a reflection of male supremacy and male sexual prowess. The disintegration of the rural African family, brought about by urbanization, the migrant labor system, and poverty, has resulted in widespread premarital promiscuity. Contraceptive practices are perceived by many as a white conspiracy aimed at limiting the growth of the black population and thereby diminishing its political power. Condom use is particularly in disfavor. Thus, AIDS prevention campaigns urging Africans to restrict the number of sexual partners and to use condoms are unlikely to be successful. Another problem is that most Africans cannot believe that AIDS is sexually linked in that the disease does not affect the sex organs as is the case with other sexually transmitted diseases. The degree to which African governments are able to allocate resources to AIDS education will determine whether the epidemic can be controlled. Even with a massive outpouring of resources, it may be difficult to arouse public alarm about AIDS since Africans are so acclimated to living with calamities of every kind.

  18. Predicting St. Louis encephalitis virus epidemics: lessons from recent, and not so recent, outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, J F

    2001-01-01

    St. Louis encephalitis virus was first identified as the cause of human disease in North America after a large urban epidemic in St. Louis, Missouri, during the summer of 1933. Since then, numerous outbreaks of St. Louis encephalitis have occurred throughout the continent. In south Florida, a 1990 epidemic lasted from August 1990 through January 1991 and resulted in 226 clinical cases and 11 deaths in 28 counties. This epidemic severely disrupted normal activities throughout the southern half of the state for 5 months and adversely impacted tourism in the affected region. The accurate forecasting of mosquito-borne arboviral epidemics will help minimize their impact on urban and rural population centers. Epidemic predictability would help focus control efforts and public education about epidemic risks, transmission patterns, and elements of personal protection that reduce the probability of arboviral infection. Research associated with arboviral outbreaks has provided an understanding of the strengths and weaknesses associated with epidemic prediction. The purpose of this paper is to review lessons from past arboviral epidemics and determine how these observations might aid our ability to predict and respond to future outbreaks.

  19. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  20. Trends in Modern Exception Handling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcin Kuta

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available Exception handling is nowadays a necessary component of error proof information systems. The paper presents overview of techniques and models of exception handling, problems connected with them and potential solutions. The aspects of implementation of propagation mechanisms and exception handling, their effect on semantics and general program efficiency are also taken into account. Presented mechanisms were adopted to modern programming languages. Considering design area, formal methods and formal verification of program properties we can notice exception handling mechanisms are weakly present what makes a field for future research.

  1. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  2. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  3. Understanding Ebola: the 2014 epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaner, Jolie; Schaack, Sarah

    2016-09-13

    Near the end of 2013, an outbreak of Zaire ebolavirus (EBOV) began in Guinea, subsequently spreading to neighboring Liberia and Sierra Leone. As this epidemic grew, important public health questions emerged about how and why this outbreak was so different from previous episodes. This review provides a synthetic synopsis of the 2014-15 outbreak, with the aim of understanding its unprecedented spread. We present a summary of the history of previous epidemics, describe the structure and genetics of the ebolavirus, and review our current understanding of viral vectors and the latest treatment practices. We conclude with an analysis of the public health challenges epidemic responders faced and some of the lessons that could be applied to future outbreaks of Ebola or other viruses.

  4. [MPOWER--strategy for fighting the global tobacco epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaleta, Dorota; Kozieł, Anna; Miśkiewicz, Paulina

    2009-01-01

    It is estimated that tobacco use may cause death of 5 million people in 2008, which is higher than the number of deaths attributed to tuberculosis (TB), HIV/AIDS and malaria taken together. By 2030, the number of deaths related to the tobacco epidemic could exceed annually even 8 million. Despite many difficulties, a growing number of countries undertake intensive actions aimed at tobacco control. The objective of this paper was to discuss the major objectives of the MPOWER Report issued by the World Health Organization (WHO). The MPOWER package consists a set of six key and most effective strategies for fighting the global tobacco epidemic: 1) Monitoring tobacco consumption and the effectiveness of preventive measures; 2) Protect people from tobacco smoke; 3) Offer help to quit tobacco use; 4) Warn about the dangers of tobacco; 5) Enforce bans on tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship; and 6) Raise taxes on tobacco. It is proven that these strategies implemented in the compatible way, effectively decreases tobacco use. In addition, MPOWER comprises epidemiological data, information on implemented tobacco control measures and their efficiency. MPOWER is the only one document of a somewhat strategic nature that is a source of information on the spread of tobacco epidemic, as well as of suggestions concerning specific actions for supporting the fight against this epidemic.

  5. National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2012-02-01

    In observance of National Black HIV/AIDS Awareness Day, Dr. Kevin Fenton, Director of CDC’s National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, talks about the HIV/AIDS among African Americans and what steps can be taken on the national, state, local, and individual levels to address this epidemic.  Created: 2/1/2012 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 2/1/2012.

  6. 30 Years of HIV/AIDS

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-06-02

    Dr. Kevin A. Fenton, Director of CDC's National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, discusses the 30 year anniversary of the first reported cases of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or AIDS. Dr. Fenton also reflects on the HIV/AIDS epidemic – past, present, and future.  Created: 6/2/2011 by National Center for HIV/AIDS, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention (NCHHSTP).   Date Released: 6/2/2011.

  7. The HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa: Convergence with ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... and resilience, with the strong potential of negatively affecting human health. ... but may be only partially effective in slowing the rate of surface warming. However, global climate assessments assert that these are not sufficient to halt climate ...

  8. HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... support services, and health insurance coverage. Additionally, the private sector and community-based organizations, provide services for people ... Topics Disparities Policy Global Health Policy Medicaid Medicare Private ... to Emails Cite Us/Reprint Media Contacts About Us Our Programs Key ...

  9. Epidemic spreading on interconnected networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saumell-Mendiola, Anna; Serrano, M Ángeles; Boguñá, Marián

    2012-08-01

    Many real networks are not isolated from each other but form networks of networks, often interrelated in nontrivial ways. Here, we analyze an epidemic spreading process taking place on top of two interconnected complex networks. We develop a heterogeneous mean-field approach that allows us to calculate the conditions for the emergence of an endemic state. Interestingly, a global endemic state may arise in the coupled system even though the epidemics is not able to propagate on each network separately and even when the number of coupling connections is small. Our analytic results are successfully confronted against large-scale numerical simulations.

  10. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  11. Educational aids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lenkeit, S.

    1989-01-01

    Educational aids include printed matter, aural media, visual media, audiovisual media and objects. A distinction is made between learning aids, which include blackboards, overhead projectors, flipcharts, wallcharts and pinboards, and learning aids, which include textbooks, worksheets, documentation and experimental equipment. The various aids are described and their use explained. The aids available at the School for Nuclear Technology of the Karlsruhe Nuclear Research Centre are described

  12. Human immunodeficiency virus, AIDS, and drug consumption in South America and the Caribbean: epidemiological evidence and initiatives to curb the epidemic El virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana, el sida y el consumo de drogas en América del Sur y el Caribe: pruebas epidemiológicas e iniciativas para frenar la epidemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A Hacker

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: The paper reviews data on drug use in relation to the spread of human immuno-deficiency virus and AIDS in South America and the Caribbean. METHODS: Information was gathered by thoroughly reviewing major bibliographic databanks, web sites of international institutions and regional networks working with substance misuse or human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS, and abstracts from conferences and meetings. RESULTS: Although some gaps remain, a growing body of evidence documents the significant role of injected cocaine in the Brazilian and Southern Cone epidemics. The Caribbean and the Andean areas have thus far been spared in large part from the spread of injection drug use and its consequences, but the situation has been changing in Southern Cone countries towards a higher prevalence of harmful injection habits. Additional challenges have been posed by the increasing availability of heroin in the Andean Area and the abuse of crack cocaine and its impact on the sexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus in many cities. Harm reduction strategies have been established in most areas of Brazil and are gaining momentum in Argentina. Other countries in the Region still face serious limitations due to restrictive legislation and lack of broader support. CONCLUSION: Greater participation of Latin American and Caribbean countries in research protocols and continued debate on both successful and failed experiences should be encouraged in order to minimize existing barriers to the full adoption of effective measures to curb the human immunodeficiency virus and AIDS epidemic in this Region.RESUMEN OBJETIVO: En el trabajo se revisan los datos acerca del consumo de drogas en relación con la propagación del virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana y el sida en Amé-rica del Sur y el Caribe. MÉTODOS: La información se obtuvo mediante una revisión exhaustiva de las principales bases de datos bibliográficas, así como de sitios en la web

  13. Epidemic threshold in directed networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Cong; Wang, Huijuan; Van Mieghem, Piet

    2013-12-01

    Epidemics have so far been mostly studied in undirected networks. However, many real-world networks, such as the online social network Twitter and the world wide web, on which information, emotion, or malware spreads, are directed networks, composed of both unidirectional links and bidirectional links. We define the directionality ξ as the percentage of unidirectional links. The epidemic threshold τc for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic is lower bounded by 1/λ1 in directed networks, where λ1, also called the spectral radius, is the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix. In this work, we propose two algorithms to generate directed networks with a given directionality ξ. The effect of ξ on the spectral radius λ1, principal eigenvector x1, spectral gap (λ1-λ2), and algebraic connectivity μN-1 is studied. Important findings are that the spectral radius λ1 decreases with the directionality ξ, whereas the spectral gap and the algebraic connectivity increase with the directionality ξ. The extent of the decrease of the spectral radius depends on both the degree distribution and the degree-degree correlation ρD. Hence, in directed networks, the epidemic threshold is larger and a random walk converges to its steady state faster than that in undirected networks with the same degree distribution.

  14. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  15. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  16. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination wit...

  17. Prostitution, AIDS, and preventive health behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, C A

    1991-01-01

    Although considerable attention has been placed on the role of prostitutes in the AIDS epidemic, little attention has been directed to features of prostitutes' work lives which are relevant to the control of AIDS. This article reviews several aspects of prostitution in the United States which have implications for control of the epidemic. The article first reviews the epidemiology of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection among prostitutes. The legalized system of prostitution in Nevada serves as a basis for comparison to illegal prostitution. This article examines the effectiveness of mandatory testing of prostitutes for monitoring and controlling the epidemic. And finally, a peer education approach as a means to control HIV infection among prostitutes is explored.

  18. Epidemics in adaptive networks with community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Tunc, Ilker

    2010-03-01

    Models for epidemic spread on static social networks do not account for changes in individuals' social interactions. Recent studies of adaptive networks have modeled avoidance behavior, as non-infected individuals try to avoid contact with infectives. Such models have not generally included realistic social structure. Here we study epidemic spread on an adaptive network with community structure. We model the effect of heterogeneous communities on infection levels and epidemic extinction. We also show how an epidemic can alter the community structure.

  19. A study on spatial decision support systems for HIV/AIDS prevention based on COM GIS technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Kun; Luo, Huasong; Peng, Shungyun; Xu, Quanli

    2007-06-01

    Based on the deeply analysis of the current status and the existing problems of GIS technology applications in Epidemiology, this paper has proposed the method and process for establishing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention by integrating the COM GIS, Spatial Database, GPS, Remote Sensing, and Communication technologies, as well as ASP and ActiveX software development technologies. One of the most important issues for constructing the spatial decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention is how to integrate the AIDS spreading models with GIS. The capabilities of GIS applications in the AIDS epidemic prevention have been described here in this paper firstly. Then some mature epidemic spreading models have also been discussed for extracting the computation parameters. Furthermore, a technical schema has been proposed for integrating the AIDS spreading models with GIS and relevant geospatial technologies, in which the GIS and model running platforms share a common spatial database and the computing results can be spatially visualized on Desktop or Web GIS clients. Finally, a complete solution for establishing the decision support systems of AIDS epidemic prevention has been offered in this paper based on the model integrating methods and ESRI COM GIS software packages. The general decision support systems are composed of data acquisition sub-systems, network communication sub-systems, model integrating sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial database sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information querying and statistical analysis sub-systems, AIDS epidemic dynamic surveillance sub-systems, AIDS epidemic information spatial analysis and decision support sub-systems, as well as AIDS epidemic information publishing sub-systems based on Web GIS.

  20. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Xiao, G.

    2012-01-01

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  1. Epidemics spreading in interconnected complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Y. [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore); Institute of High Performance Computing, Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A-STAR), Singapore 138632 (Singapore); Xiao, G., E-mail: egxxiao@ntu.edu.sg [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore 639798 (Singapore)

    2012-09-03

    We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. It is found that in our model the epidemic threshold of the interconnected network is always lower than that in any of the two component networks. Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. Theoretical analysis and simulation results show that, generally speaking, the epidemic size is not significantly affected by the inter-network correlation. In interdependent networks which can be viewed as a special case of interconnected networks, however, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant. -- Highlights: ► We study epidemic spreading in two interconnected complex networks. ► The epidemic threshold is lower than that in any of the two networks. And Interconnection correlation has impacts on threshold and average outbreak size. ► Detailed theoretical analysis is proposed which allows quick and accurate calculations of epidemic threshold and average outbreak/epidemic size. ► We demonstrated and proved that Interconnection correlation does not affect epidemic size significantly. ► In interdependent networks, impacts of inter-network correlation on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size are more significant.

  2. A constitution for AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koshy, L M

    1996-01-15

    The Indian Health Organization projected the number of deaths per day due to AIDS by the year 2000 at 10,000. An interdisciplinary international conference was held in New Delhi to draft an international law governing the issues related to AIDS. Human freedom and public health policies are the most affected by this disease. In the absence of an international AIDS law, judicial verdicts set precedents and could have serious ramifications. A participant from the John Marshall Law School, Chicago, suggested that instead of making new laws, the existing ones from the colonial past should be repealed. This includes Section 377 of the Indian Penal Code, which provides criminal sanctions against those who indulge in unnatural relations with man, woman, or animal. Penalizing homosexuality will only perpetuate clandestine relations and spread the virus into their families. Another participant seconded this motion stating that even a sex worker must be protected from abuse and indignity. The National AIDS Control Organization responded to the criticism that the government had not utilized all the World Bank funds allocated for anti-AIDS projects. The trends of the epidemic were the most important indicators not just the numbers. In Manipur and Mizoram, infection was almost entirely due to injecting drug use. The Saheli project undertaken in the red-light areas of Bombay encompassed brothel owners and prostitutes, which could be replicated in other areas. Because existing government policies were focusing on prevention, there was no protection of an HIV-infected individual's privacy, one participant from Madras stated. The confidentiality issue was also echoed by a US participant. The New Delhi Declaration and Action Plan on HIV/AIDS was also discussed. It forbids discrimination in employment, education, housing, health care, social security, travel, and marital and reproductive rights. Providing sterile needles and ensuring the safety of the blood supply were other concerns

  3. Epidemics scenarios in the "Romantic network".

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexsandro M Carvalho

    Full Text Available The networks of sexual contacts together with temporal interactions play key roles in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, data for this kind of network is scarce. One of the few exceptions, the "Romantic network", is a complete structure of a real sexual network in a high school. Based on many network measurements the authors of the work have concluded that it does not correspond to any other model network. Regarding the temporal structure, several studies indicate that relationship timing can have an effect on the diffusion throughout networks, as relationship order determines transmission routes. The aim is to check if the particular structure, static and dynamic, of the Romantic network is determinant for the propagation of an STI. We performed simulations in two scenarios: the static network where all contacts are available and the dynamic case where contacts evolve over time. In the static case, we compared the epidemic results in the Romantic network with some paradigmatic topologies. In the dynamic scenario, we considered the dynamics of formation of pairs in the Romantic network and we studied the propagation of the diseases. Our results suggest that although this real network cannot be labeled as a Watts-Strogatz network, it is, in regard to the propagation of an STI, very similar to a high disorder network. Additionally, we found that: the effect that any individual contacting an externally infected subject is to make the network closer to a fully connected one, the higher the contact degree of patient zero the faster the spread of the outbreaks, and the epidemic impact is proportional to the numbers of contacts per unit time. Finally, our simulations confirm that relationship timing severely reduced the final outbreak size, and also, show a clear correlation between the average degree and the outbreak size over time.

  4. Public Libraries Participation In Hiv/Aids Awareness Campaign In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The paper examines public libraries involvement in HIV/AIDS awareness campaign in South West Nigeria. These include the materials and services available on HIV/AIDS and challenges to their participation in the war against the epidemic. The study revealed that public libraries in South West Nigeria are not participating ...

  5. HIV/AIDS Prevention Trials Capacity Building Grants - Phase II ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Canada's international response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic is largely built around the work of the Canadian HIV Vaccine Initiative (CHVI). CHVI proposes to increase the capacity of Canada and low- and middle-income countries to respond to the HIV/AIDS pandemic by developing new HIV vaccines and other preventive ...

  6. The social impact of AIDS in the United States

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Jonsen, Albert R; Stryker, Jeff

    1993-01-01

    ... on Monitoring the Social Impact of the AIDS Epidemic Committee on AIDS Research and the Behavioral, Social, and Statistical Sciences Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1993 Copyrightthe cannot be not from book, paper however, version for formatting, original author...

  7. Macroeconomic Impact of HIV and AIDS on the Zimbabwean ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Zimbabwe is one of the countries severely affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The high prevalence of the disease is not only a health problem but has become an economic problem, yet little effort had previously been directed at establishing the exact magnitude of HIV/AIDS' economic impact. Using a human capital ...

  8. Aid Effectiveness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Tarp, Finn

    of the main relationships; (ii) estimating the impact of aid on a range of final and intermediate outcomes; and (iii) quantifying a simplied representation of the full structural form, where aid impacts on growth through key intermediate outcomes. A coherent picture emerges: aid stimulates growth and reduces......Controversy over the aggregate impact of foreign aid has focused on reduced form estimates of the aid-growth link. The causal chain, through which aid affects developmental outcomes including growth, has received much less attention. We address this gap by: (i) specifying a structural model...... poverty through physical capital investment and improvements in health....

  9. Factors associated with high media coverage of the HIV epidemic in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Moreover, journalists and editors are often consciously exploiting the mass media's potential agendasetting function in order to raise attention to HIV and AIDS. Although covering the HIV epidemic has become significantly easier in Lesotho because of government efforts, government and public officials are simultaneously ...

  10. From epidemics to information propagation : Striking differences in structurally similar adaptive network models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trajanovski, S.; Guo, D.; Van Mieghem, P.F.A.

    2015-01-01

    The continuous-time adaptive susceptible-infected-susceptible (ASIS) epidemic model and the adaptive information diffusion (AID) model are two adaptive spreading processes on networks, in which a link in the network changes depending on the infectious state of its end nodes, but in opposite ways:

  11. 'The epidemic in this country has the face of a woman' 1 : Gender ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    'The epidemic in this country has the face of a woman' 1 : Gender and HIV/AIDS in South Africa 2. ... Abstract. Epidemiological data clearly show that the highest levels of HIV prevalence occur in sub-Saharan Africa. ... Keywords: gender inequality, HIV prevention, socio-cultural and material aspects, women. African Journal ...

  12. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  13. Aid Allocation across Sectors: Does aid fit well with recipients' development priorities?

    OpenAIRE

    KASUGA Hidefumi

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates whether aid flows to developing countries fit well with their development priorities. In particular, we examine aid allocation across sectors in a given recipient country by using sectoral data on aid and indicators that measure the recipient's need for aid in each sector. The data show that inter-recipient aid allocation reflects the recipient's need. However, we found no evidence that inter-sectoral allocation fits with national priorities except in high- and middle-...

  14. Does HIV/AIDS matter for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mveyange, Anthony Francis; Skovsgaard, Christian; Lesner, Tine

    Estimating the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth is challenging because of endogeneity concerns. In this paper, we use novel data on male circumcision and distance from the first HIV outbreak as instrumental variables for the HIV/AIDS epidemic in 241 regions across 25 countries in sub......-Saharan Africa during 2003–12. Our main finding shows that the impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic on economic growth is negative but statistically insignificant. Further investigation on the main channels through which HIV/AIDS may affect economic growth—namely human capital, population growth, and productivity......—finds no impacts of the HIV/AIDS epidemic on these channels....

  15. AIDS (image)

    Science.gov (United States)

    AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) is caused by HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), and is a syndrome that ... life-threatening illnesses. There is no cure for AIDS, but treatment with antiviral medicine can suppress symptoms. ...

  16. Foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp, Finn

    2008-01-01

    Foreign aid has evolved significantly since the Second World War in response to a dramatically changing global political and economic context. This article (a) reviews this process and associated trends in the volume and distribution of foreign aid; (b) reviews the goals, principles and instituti......Foreign aid has evolved significantly since the Second World War in response to a dramatically changing global political and economic context. This article (a) reviews this process and associated trends in the volume and distribution of foreign aid; (b) reviews the goals, principles...... and institutions of the aid system; and (c) discusses whether aid has been effective. While much of the original optimism about the impact of foreign aid needed modification, there is solid evidence that aid has indeed helped further growth and poverty reduction...

  17. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  18. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Dawei [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Computer Network, Shandong Computer Science Center, Jinan 250014 (China); Li, Lixiang [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Peng, Haipeng, E-mail: penghaipeng@bupt.edu.cn [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, P.O. Box 145, Beijing 100876 (China); National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2014-02-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  19. HIV/AIDS Situation in Economic Cooperation Countries; Achievement and Gaps toward Millennium Development Goals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghobad Moradi

    2011-03-01

    Conclusion: An efficient surveillance system in needed to illustrate an exact picture of HIV/AIDS in all countries. This study shows that though the epidemics has started lately in member countries compared with other parts of the world, no proper intervention has been adopted for controlling the epidemics yet. Moreover, in those countries which AIDS epidemics are concentrated among drug users, harm reduction activities are necessary to control the problem. Increasing the coverage of antiretroviral treatment and awareness of general and high risk population could help countries to achieve HIV/AIDS indicators.

  20. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The t...

  1. HIV/AIDS in Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruxrungtham, Kiat; Brown, Tim; Phanuphak, Praphan

    HIV (ie, HIV-1) epidemics in Asia show great diversity, both in severity and timing. But epidemics in Asia are far from over and several countries including China, Indonesia, and Vietnam have growing epidemics. Several factors affect the rate and magnitude of growth of HIV prevalence, but two of the most important are the size of the sex worker population and the frequency with which commercial sex occurs. In view of the present state of knowledge, even countries with low prevalence of infection might still have epidemics affecting a small percentage of the population. Once HIV infection has become established, growing needs for care and treatment are unavoidable and even the so-called prevention-successful countries of Thailand and Cambodia are seeing burgeoning care needs. The manifestations of HIV disease in the region are discussed with the aim of identifying key issues in medical management and care of HIV/AIDS. In particular, issues relevant to developing appropriate highly active antiretroviral treatment programmes in the region are discussed. Although access to antiretroviral therapy is increasing globally, making it work effectively while simultaneously expanding prevention programmes to stem the flow of new infections remains a real challenge in Asia. Genuine political interest and commitment are essential foundations for success, demanding advocacy at all levels to drive policy, mobilise sufficient resources, and take effective action.

  2. HIV / AIDS and the law.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-09-01

    Since HIV is sexually transmitted, people living with AIDS and HIV (PWA/PHA) risk being stigmatized as immoral and promiscuous and they are often discriminated against in society. To this effect, the South African AIDS Law Project and Lawyers for Human Rights have developed a comprehensive resource manual detailing human rights with a special emphasis on issues relevant to PWA/PHA. The concept of the manual aimed to look at the legal and human rights questions that have been raised by the HIV/AIDS epidemic; inform people living with HIV/AIDS about their rights and the law; provide people working in businesses, trade unions, and nongovernmental organization with information about correct and incorrect responses to HIV/AIDS; and give victims of discrimination ideas on how to fight back. This manual initially introduces basic facts about HIV and AIDS and then describes the legal system and the Bill of Rights within the new South African Constitution. The main areas of focus in the manual include: 1) patient's medical rights, 2) employment rights, 3) women's rights, 4) the rights of lesbians and gay men, 5) the rights of youth and children, 6) the rights of prisoners, 7) social support for PWA, 8) HIV/AIDS and insurance law, 9) power of attorney and making wills, 10) criminal law, and 11) legal remedies, such as using the law to protect one's rights.

  3. AIDS in the developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tinker, J

    1988-01-01

    Without a medical miracle, it seems inevitable that the Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) pandemic will become not only the most serious public health problem of this generation but a dominating issue in 3rd world development. As a present-day killer, AIDS in developing countries is insignificant compared to malaria, tuberculosis, or infant diarrhea, but this number is misleading in 3 ways. First, it fails to reflect the per capita rate of AIDS cases. On this basis, Bermuda, French Guyana, and the Bahamas have much higher rates than the US. Second, there is extensive underreporting of AIDS cases in most developing nations. Finally, the number of AIDS cases indicates where the epidemic was 5-7 years ago, when these people became infected. Any such projections of the growth of 3rd world AIDS epidemics are at this time based on epidemiologic data from the industrialized rations of the north and on the assumption that the virus acts similarly in the south as it does in the US and Europe. Yet, 3rd world conditions differ. Sexually transmitted diseases usually are more prevalent, and people have a different burden of other diseases and of other stresses to the immune system. In Africa, AIDS already is heavily affecting the mainstream population in some nations. Some regions will approach net population declines over the next decade. How far their populations eventually could decline because of AIDS is unclear and will depend crucially on countermeasures taken or not taken over the next 1-2 years. In purely economic terms, AIDS will affect the direct costs of health care, expenses which are unrealistic for most 3rd world countries. Further, the vast majority of deaths from AIDS in developing countries will occur among those in the sexually active age groups -- the wage earners and food producers. Deaths in this age group also will reduce the labor available for farming and industry. AIDS epidemics also may have significant effects on foreign investment in the 3rd

  4. Exceptional groups from open strings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gaberdiel, M.R.; Zwiebach, B.

    1998-01-01

    We consider type IIB theory compactified on a two-sphere in the presence of mutually non-local 7-branes. The BPS states associated with the gauge vectors of exceptional groups are seen to arise from open strings connecting the 7-branes, and multi-pronged open strings capable of ending on more than two 7-branes. These multi-pronged strings are built from open string junctions that arise naturally when strings cross 7-branes. The different string configurations can be multiplied as traditional open strings, and are shown to generate the structure of exceptional groups. (orig.)

  5. AIDS: there's hope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-06-01

    In 1993, 10 years after realizing that AIDS posed a threat to the future of mankind, social mobilization will improve the odds against AIDS. The objective is to create awareness about the virus, and to affect positive behavioral change through advocacy, communication, and grass-roots actions. The first goal is to change the societal attitude about the status of youth and women in order to understand that gender inequality fuels the pandemic. They are the most vulnerable groups, therefore their economic and social power must be improved. The Convention on the Rights of the Child and the Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women constitute a platform for broader action by governmental, nongovernmental, and religious institutions. In addition, these organizations need strong allies in society: 1) the media, which can communicate the importance of youth, women, and attitudes in the epidemic; 2) religious leaders, who can be powerful sources of advocacy for change in attitudes as well as support and care for AIDS-affected individuals and families; 3) policy makers, who can be crucial in changing existing policies and altering the allocation of government resources to youth and women; 4) human rights organizations, which play an important role in promoting the concept of health as a human right and for enhancing the understanding of AIDS in the context of discrimination and poverty; 5) the private sector, including commerce and industry, which can promote changes in attitude within the work force and AIDS prevention initiatives; and 6) parent-teacher groups and models for youth, who can educate them about socially acceptable and unacceptable behavior and can empower them to make responsible behavior choices.

  6. Learned Helplessness in Exceptional Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brock, Herman B.; Kowitz, Gerald T.

    The research literature on learned helplessness in exceptional children is reviewed and the authors' efforts to identify and retrain learning disabled (LD) children who have characteristics typical of learned helplessness are reported. Twenty-eight elementary aged LD children viewed as "learned helpless" were randomly assigned to one of four…

  7. 76 FR 53157 - Excepted Service

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-25

    ... OFFICE OF PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT Excepted Service AGENCY: U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM... Administration. Office of Management. Special Assistant.... DE110117 6/22/2011 Office of the Special Assistant... Directors... Special Assistant.... EB110010 6/9/2011 GENERAL SERVICES ADMINISTRATION... Pacific Rim Region...

  8. Exceptional Responders Initial Feasibility Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    A pilot study evaluating identification of cancer patients who respond to treatment that is ineffective in at least 90 percent of patients found that it was indeed able to confirm a majority of proposed patients as exceptional responders based on clinical

  9. Exceptional and Spinorial Conformal Windows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mojaza, Matin; Pica, Claudio; Ryttov, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    We study the conformal window of gauge theories containing fermionic matter fields, where the gauge group is any of the exceptional groups with the fermions transforming according to the fundamental and adjoint representations and the orthogonal groups where the fermions transform according...

  10. Vida/SIDA: A Grassroots Response to AIDS in Chicago's Puerto Rican Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanabria, Roberto

    2004-01-01

    Chicago's Puerto Rican community in West Town had a unique reaction to the spread of AIDS within its limits. They created their own institutions and tackled the epidemic themselves. In its infancy, Vida/SIDA, which translates as Life/AIDS, was solely an alternative health clinic for people with AIDS. Free of charge, it provided services such as…

  11. Epidemic pasteurellosis in a bighorn sheep population coinciding with the appearance of a domestic sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Janet L; Martin, Daniel J; Lukacs, Paul M; Miller, Michael W

    2008-04-01

    A pneumonia epidemic reduced bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) survival and recruitment during 1997-2000 in a population comprised of three interconnected wintering herds (Kenosha Mountains, Sugarloaf Mountain, Twin Eagles) that inhabited the Kenosha and Tarryall Mountain ranges in central Colorado, USA. The onset of this epidemic coincided temporally and spatially with the appearance of a single domestic sheep (Ovis aires) on the Sugarloaf Mountain herd's winter range in December 1997. Although only bighorns in the Sugarloaf Mountain herd were affected in 1997-98, cases also occurred during 1998-99 in the other two wintering herds, likely after the epidemic spread via established seasonal movements of male bighorns. In all, we located 86 bighorn carcasses during 1997-2000. Three species of Pasteurella were isolated in various combinations from affected lung tissues from 20 bighorn carcasses where tissues were available and suitable for diagnostic evaluation; with one exception, beta-hemolytic mannheimia (Pasteurella) haemolytica (primarily reported as biogroup 1(G) or 1(alphaG)) was isolated from lung tissues of cases evaluated during winter 1997-98. The epidemic dramatically lowered adult bighorn monthly survival in all three herds; a model that included an acute epidemic effect, differing between sexes and with vaccination status, that diminished linearly over the next 12 mo best represented field data. In addition to the direct mortality associated with epidemics in these three herds, lamb recruitment in years following the pneumonia epidemic also was depressed as compared to years prior to the epidemic. Based on observations presented here, pasteurellosis epidemics in free-ranging bighorn sheep can arise through incursion of domestic sheep onto native ranges, and thus minimizing contact between domestic and bighorn sheep appears to be a logical principle for bighorn sheep conservation.

  12. We are all people living with AIDS: myths and realities of AIDS in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, H

    1991-01-01

    Although AIDS was expected in Brazil, no serious efforts were undertaken to prevent AIDS from taking root. Irresponsible press and media coverage highlighted the spread of AIDS within the gay community of the United States, creating an aura of immunity in Brazil to what was characterized as a "foreign" disorder. When AIDS did surface in 1983, the official response was to adopt an abstract, inappropriate, and ideological "Western" model, in which only stigmatized "others" and "minorities" were at risk of HIV infection. Brazilian health authorities subsequently downplayed the significance of the sale of contaminated blood in HIV transmission, and likewise ignored the rising rates of AIDS among Brazil's one unarguable majority group: the poor. An analysis of efforts to force the "facts" of AIDS to fit a false model's predictions leads to a clearer definition of the broader context of the Brazilian epidemic: we all are people living with AIDS, precisely because we live in this age of AIDS; it is sheer folly to discriminate against persons infected by HIV and to obstruct their participation in efforts to curtail the epidemic's spread; and the necessary response to AIDS is solidarity, not because it is poetic, but because no other response will suffice.

  13. The Role of Non-Governmental Organizations on HIV/AIDS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV/AIDS pandemic has caused widespread negative socio-economic impacts in Tanzania. The epidemic is restraining development efforts of many households and the nation at large. Despite the mushrooming number of NGOs established to combat the epidemic, the prevalence of HIV infection is still high. This study was ...

  14. Rumor, gossip and blame: implications for HIV/AIDS prevention in the South African lowveld.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stadler, Jonathan

    2003-08-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic provides fertile breeding ground for theories of the origin of HIV/AIDS, its mode of transmission, and the allocation of blame. Drawing on ethnographic research in the Bushbuckridge region of the South African lowveld, this article examines the articulation of AIDS through gossip and rumor. These oral forms create moral readings of behavior and shape folk discourses of AIDS that resist dominant epidemiological explanations. Significantly, constructions of AIDS are not uniform. Although elders claim AIDS as traditional and curable, younger men and women support theories of AIDS as a modern, foreign disease. Witchcraft beliefs are popular in explaining why certain people die and not others. At times, rumor may escalate into a moral panic. The implications of these findings for social responses to the AIDS epidemic and HIV/AIDS prevention are explored.

  15. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics. ...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  16. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  17. Assessment of laboratory test utilization for HIV/AIDS care in urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    For all samples sent, we determined rates of successful lab- processing, and ... part of standard care by 20155. However ... Research Committee (NHSRC) as part of a program evaluation .... UNAIDS Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic. WHO.

  18. A review of the response to HIV/AIDS in Trinidad and Tobago: 1983 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Christine Laptiste

    2014-01-03

    Jan 3, 2014 ... basic knowledge of human behaviour, behavioural and emotional responses .... ing changes in the epidemic and AIDS-related morbidity and mortality. ..... The role of culture in the communication of health messages is critical.

  19. CMS : An exceptional load for an exceptional work site

    CERN Multimedia

    2001-01-01

    Components of the CMS vacuum tank have been delivered to the detector assembly site at Cessy. The complete inner shell was delivered to CERN by special convoy while the outer shell is being assembled in situ. The convoy transporting the inner shell of the CMS vacuum tank took a week to cover the distance between Lons-le-Saunier and Point 5 at Cessy. Left: the convoy making its way down from the Col de la Faucille. With lights flashing, flanked by police outriders and with roads temporarily closed, the exceptional load that passed through the Pays de Gex on Monday 20 May was accorded the same VIP treatment as a leading state dignitary. But this time it was not the identity of the passenger but the exceptional size of the object being transported that made such arrangements necessary. A convoy of two lorries was needed to transport the load, an enormous 13-metre long, 6 metre diameter cylinder weighing 120 tonnes. It took a week to cover the 120 kilometres between Lons-le-Saunier and the assembly site for...

  20. The Diabetes Epidemic in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Junghyun Noh

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Diabetes is one of the foremost public health issues worldwide that can lead to complications in many organ systems, and has become a significant cause of morbidity and mortality in Korea. According to data from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS, about 2.7 million Koreans (8.0% aged 30 years or older had type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM in 2013. The prevalence of T2DM increased with age and rose from 5.6% in 2006 to 8.0% in 2013. Using data based on The Health Screening Service of the NHIS, 25% of Korean adults were reported to have prediabetes in 2013. The prevalence of an impaired fasting glucose tended to increase over time from 21.5% in 2006 to 25.0% in 2013. Even though nationwide health screening has been regularly conducted as a public service, the proportion of undiagnosed cases of diabetes was still reported to be on the higher side in the latest study. Based on the results of these epidemic studies, further actions will be needed to effectively implement lifestyle changes on a social level and increase measures for the early detection of diabetes to stem the tide of the epidemic.

  1. Dermatology and HIV/AIDS in Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jenny Hu

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Human immunodeficiency virus and the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS have greatly complicated dermatologic disease and the required care in most regions of Africa. Opportunistic infections, ectoparasites, Kaposi sarcoma, and skin manifestations of systemic infections are exceedingly common in patients with HIV/AIDS. Dermatologists have contributed significantly to our knowledge base about HIV/AIDS and have played an important educational role regarding the clinical manifestations historically. Because of the increased burden of skin disease in Africa due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic we must redouble our efforts to provide dermatology education to care providers in Africa. We review the burden of skin disease in Africa, how it relates to HIV/AIDS and global infectious disease, current educational strategies in Africa to address this need, and suggest potential solutions to move these efforts forward.

  2. Exceptional circles of radial potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Music, M; Perry, P; Siltanen, S

    2013-01-01

    A nonlinear scattering transform is studied for the two-dimensional Schrödinger equation at zero energy with a radial potential. Explicit examples are presented, both theoretically and computationally, of potentials with nontrivial singularities in the scattering transform. The singularities arise from non-uniqueness of the complex geometric optics solutions that define the scattering transform. The values of the complex spectral parameter at which the singularities appear are called exceptional points. The singularity formation is closely related to the fact that potentials of conductivity type are ‘critical’ in the sense of Murata. (paper)

  3. Brand Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richey, Lisa Ann; Ponte, Stefano

    A critical account of the rise of celebrity-driven “compassionate consumption” Cofounded by the rock star Bono in 2006, Product RED exemplifies a new trend in celebrity-driven international aid and development, one explicitly linked to commerce, not philanthropy. Brand Aid offers a deeply informed...

  4. Foreign aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tarp, Finn

    2008-01-01

    Foreign aid has evolved significantly since the Second World War in response to a dramatically changing global political and economic context. This article (a) reviews this process and associated trends in the volume and distribution of foreign aid; (b) reviews the goals, principles...

  5. X exceptionalism in Caenorhabditis speciation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cutter, Asher D

    2017-11-13

    Speciation genetics research in diverse organisms shows the X-chromosome to be exceptional in how it contributes to "rules" of speciation. Until recently, however, the nematode phylum has been nearly silent on this issue, despite the model organism Caenorhabditis elegans having touched most other topics in biology. Studies of speciation with Caenorhabditis accelerated with the recent discovery of species pairs showing partial interfertility. The resulting genetic analyses of reproductive isolation in nematodes demonstrate key roles for the X-chromosome in hybrid male sterility and inviability, opening up new understanding of the genetic causes of Haldane's rule, Darwin's corollary to Haldane's rule, and enabling tests of the large-X effect hypothesis. Studies to date implicate improper chromatin regulation of the X-chromosome by small RNA pathways as integral to hybrid male dysfunction. Sexual transitions in reproductive mode to self-fertilizing hermaphroditism inject distinctive molecular evolutionary features into the speciation process for some species. Caenorhabditis also provides unique opportunities for analysis in a system with XO sex determination that lacks a Y-chromosome, sex chromosome-dependent sperm competition differences and mechanisms of gametic isolation, exceptional accessibility to the development process and rapid experimental evolution. As genetic analysis of reproductive isolation matures with investigation of multiple pairs of Caenorhabditis species and new species discovery, nematodes will provide a powerful complement to more established study organisms for deciphering the genetic basis of and rules to speciation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  7. Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Ben

    2016-03-07

    A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Malaria epidemic and drug resistance, Djibouti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogier, Christophe; Pradines, Bruno; Bogreau, H; Koeck, Jean-Louis; Kamil, Mohamed-Ali; Mercereau-Puijalon, Odile

    2005-02-01

    Analysis of Plasmodium falciparum isolates collected before, during, and after a 1999 malaria epidemic in Djibouti shows that, despite a high prevalence of resistance to chloroquine, the epidemic cannot be attributed to a sudden increase in drug resistance of local parasite populations.

  9. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liu, M.; Li, D.; Qin, P.; Liu, C.; Wang, H.; Wang, F.

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks

  10. Stemming the obesity epidemic : a tantalizing prospect

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veerman, J Lennert; Barendregt, Jan J; van Beeck, Ed F; Seidell, Jacob C; Mackenbach, Johan P

    OBJECTIVE: Obesity is a growing problem worldwide, but there are no good methods to assess the future course of the epidemic and the potential influence of interventions. We explore the behavior change needed to stop the obesity epidemic in the U.S. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: We modeled the

  11. Inferring epidemic contact structure from phylogenetic trees.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabriel E Leventhal

    Full Text Available Contact structure is believed to have a large impact on epidemic spreading and consequently using networks to model such contact structure continues to gain interest in epidemiology. However, detailed knowledge of the exact contact structure underlying real epidemics is limited. Here we address the question whether the structure of the contact network leaves a detectable genetic fingerprint in the pathogen population. To this end we compare phylogenies generated by disease outbreaks in simulated populations with different types of contact networks. We find that the shape of these phylogenies strongly depends on contact structure. In particular, measures of tree imbalance allow us to quantify to what extent the contact structure underlying an epidemic deviates from a null model contact network and illustrate this in the case of random mixing. Using a phylogeny from the Swiss HIV epidemic, we show that this epidemic has a significantly more unbalanced tree than would be expected from random mixing.

  12. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Meng; Li, Daqing; Qin, Pengju; Liu, Chaoran; Wang, Huijuan; Wang, Feilong

    2015-01-01

    Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  13. Epidemics in interconnected small-world networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Meng Liu

    Full Text Available Networks can be used to describe the interconnections among individuals, which play an important role in the spread of disease. Although the small-world effect has been found to have a significant impact on epidemics in single networks, the small-world effect on epidemics in interconnected networks has rarely been considered. Here, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS model of epidemic spreading in a system comprising two interconnected small-world networks. We find that the epidemic threshold in such networks decreases when the rewiring probability of the component small-world networks increases. When the infection rate is low, the rewiring probability affects the global steady-state infection density, whereas when the infection rate is high, the infection density is insensitive to the rewiring probability. Moreover, epidemics in interconnected small-world networks are found to spread at different velocities that depend on the rewiring probability.

  14. Kebijakan Pengendalian HIV/AIDS di Denpasar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tri Rini Puji Lestari

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Secara nasional, Indonesia telah mengantisipasi epidemi HIV/AIDS, tetapi jumlah kasus HIV/AIDS di Provinsi Bali dari tahun ke tahun memperlihatkan peningkatan yang semakin mengkhawatirkan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui perkembangan jumlah kasus dan kebijakan penanggulangan HIV/AIDS di Denpasar. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif yang dilakukan di Denpasar pada tanggal 11-17 September 2011. Sampel penelitian ini menggunakan informan terpilih yaitu kepala bappeda, pejabat Dinas Kesehatan Kabupaten Denpasar, direktur rumah sakit, puskesmas, ketua komisi penanggulangan AIDS di kabupaten/kota dan pemerhati HIV/AIDS termasuk ODHA. Penelitian menemukan jumlah kasus HIV/AIDS di Kota Denpasar yang tertinggi dan penularan terbesarnya melalui hubungan seks. Namun, dukungan pemerintah daerah dalam upaya pencegahan dan penanggulangan HIV/AIDS terlihat belum maksimal. Padahal kebijakan penanggulangan HIV/AIDS sangat ditentukan oleh cara pandang pemerintah terhadap penyakit HIV/AIDS. Untuk itu, perlu peningkatan pemahaman tentang HIV/AIDS serta pencegahan dan penanganan semua pihak terkait sehingga penanggulangan HIV/AIDS dapat lebih efektif, efisien, dan tepat sasaran. Nationally, Indonesia anticipated HIV/AIDS epidemic, but the number of cases of HIV/AIDS in Bali province from year to year showed an increase in the increasingly alarming. This study aimed to determine the number of cases and the development of policies on HIV / AIDS in Denpasar. This research was conducted using qualitative methods in Denpasar on 11-17 September 2011. The study sample was selected using the informant is head of planning, Denpasar District health officers, the director of the hospital, health center, chairman of the commission on AIDS in the district/city and observer of HIV / AIDS, including people living with HIV. The study found the number of cases of HIV / AIDS in the city of Denpasar is the highest and greatest transmission through sexual intercourse

  15. Cooperative epidemics on multiplex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azimi-Tafreshi, N.

    2016-04-01

    The spread of one disease, in some cases, can stimulate the spreading of another infectious disease. Here, we treat analytically a symmetric coinfection model for spreading of two diseases on a two-layer multiplex network. We allow layer overlapping, but we assume that each layer is random and locally loopless. Infection with one of the diseases increases the probability of getting infected with the other. Using the generating function method, we calculate exactly the fraction of individuals infected with both diseases (so-called coinfected clusters) in the stationary state, as well as the epidemic spreading thresholds and the phase diagram of the model. With increasing cooperation, we observe a tricritical point and the type of transition changes from continuous to hybrid. Finally, we compare the coinfected clusters in the case of cooperating diseases with the so-called "viable" clusters in networks with dependencies.

  16. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover...

  17. Rabies epidemic model with uncertainty in parameters: crisp and fuzzy approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndii, M. Z.; Amarti, Z.; Wiraningsih, E. D.; Supriatna, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    A deterministic mathematical model is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of rabies. In particular, we investigate the effects of vaccination, carrying capacity and the transmission rate on the rabies epidemics and allow for uncertainty in the parameters. We perform crisp and fuzzy approaches. We find that, in the case of crisp parameters, rabies epidemics may be interrupted when the carrying capacity and the transmission rate are not high. Our findings suggest that limiting the growth of dog population and reducing the potential contact between susceptible and infectious dogs may aid in interrupting rabies epidemics. We extend the work by considering a fuzzy carrying capacity and allow for low, medium, and high level of carrying capacity. The result confirms the results obtained by using crisp carrying capacity, that is, when the carrying capacity is not too high, the vaccination could confine the disease effectively.

  18. The physics of exceptional points

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heiss, W D

    2012-01-01

    A short résumé is given about the nature of exceptional points (EPs) followed by discussions about their ubiquitous occurrence in a great variety of physical problems. EPs feature in classical as well as in quantum mechanical problems. They are associated with symmetry breaking for PT-symmetric Hamiltonians, where a great number of experiments has been performed, in particular in optics, and to an increasing extent in atomic and molecular physics. EPs are involved in quantum phase transition and quantum chaos; they produce dramatic effects in multichannel scattering, specific time dependence and more. In nuclear physics, they are associated with instabilities and continuum problems. Being spectral singularities they also affect approximation schemes. This article is part of a special issue of Journal of Physics A: Mathematical and Theoretical devoted to ‘Quantum physics with non-Hermitian operators’. (paper)

  19. National HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates are associated with the Human Development Index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Li-Xia; Chen, Yi; Yu, Chao-Hui; Li, You-Ming; Ye, Juan

    2014-10-01

    HIV/AIDS is a worldwide threat to human health with mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates varying widely. We evaluated the association between the global HIV/AIDS epidemic and national socioeconomic development. We obtained global age-standardized HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates from World Health Statistics Report of the World Health Organization. The human development indexes (HDIs) of 141 countries were obtained from a Human Development Report. Countries were divided into 4 groups according to the HDI distribution. We explored the association between HIV/AIDS epidemic and HDI information using Spearman correlation analysis, regression analysis, and the Kruskal-Wallis test. HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates were inversely correlated with national HDI (r = -0.675, -0.519, and -0.398, respectively; P birth, mean years of schooling, expected years of schooling, and gross national income per capita). Low HDI countries had higher HIV/AIDS mortality, prevalence, and incidence rates than that of medium, high, and very high HDI countries. Quantile regression results indicated that HDI had a greater negative effect on the HIV/AIDS epidemic in countries with more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. Less-developed countries are likely to have more severe HIV/AIDS epidemic. There is a need to pay more attention to HIV/AIDS control in less-developed countries, where lower socioeconomic status might have accelerated the HIV/AIDS epidemic more rapidly. Copyright © 2014 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. [Rejecting or prioritizing life? The ambiguities of AIDS biopolitics in Uruguay].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reihling, Hanspeter

    2010-06-01

    The biopolitics of aids in Uruguay could be seen between two big poles: the investment and the rejection of life. The productive mode can be expressed in the treatment of children who contracted HIV through mother to child transmission. For these children the infection in many cases becomes an asset until they reach adolescence. Except of some efforts of forced detention and mandatory testing, the public health system as well as NGOs show little interest in assisting adolescence infected or affected by HIV/aids. This is the result of a moral economy which marks people who are able to transmit the virus sexually or who have contracted it through sexual intercourse. Especially HIV positive mothers are seen as irresponsible and dangerous in contraposition to their "pure" offspring. However, this moral discourse hardly takes into account the larger social and economic context in which those mothers contracted the virus and as they faced Antiretroviral Therapy (ART). The life history of an adolescent boy will be told in order to reflect upon the modes of inclusion and exclusion of people living with HIV/aids since the beginning of the epidemic in Uruguay. Although the case is not representative, it identifies dynamics within the Uruguayan health system which are difficult to discern through conventional statistical methods.

  1. Recent results on the spatiotemporal modelling and comparative analysis of Black Death and bubonic plague epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christakos, G.; Olea, R.A.; Yu, H.-L.

    2007-01-01

    Background: This work demonstrates the importance of spatiotemporal stochastic modelling in constructing maps of major epidemics from fragmentary information, assessing population impacts, searching for possible etiologies, and performing comparative analysis of epidemics. Methods: Based on the theory previously published by the authors and incorporating new knowledge bases, informative maps of the composite space-time distributions were generated for important characteristics of two major epidemics: Black Death (14th century Western Europe) and bubonic plague (19th-20th century Indian subcontinent). Results: The comparative spatiotemporal analysis of the epidemics led to a number of interesting findings: (1) the two epidemics exhibited certain differences in their spatiotemporal characteristics (correlation structures, trends, occurrence patterns and propagation speeds) that need to be explained by means of an interdisciplinary effort; (2) geographical epidemic indicators confirmed in a rigorous quantitative manner the partial findings of isolated reports and time series that Black Death mortality was two orders of magnitude higher than that of bubonic plague; (3) modern bubonic plague is a rural disease hitting harder the small villages in the countryside whereas Black Death was a devastating epidemic that indiscriminately attacked large urban centres and the countryside, and while the epidemic in India lasted uninterruptedly for five decades, in Western Europe it lasted three and a half years; (4) the epidemics had reverse areal extension features in response to annual seasonal variations. Temperature increase at the end of winter led to an expansion of infected geographical area for Black Death and a reduction for bubonic plague, reaching a climax at the end of spring when the infected area in Western Europe was always larger than in India. Conversely, without exception, the infected area during winter was larger for the Indian bubonic plague; (5) during the

  2. Ongoing dengue epidemic - Angola, June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    On April 1, 2013, the Public Health Directorate of Angola announced that six cases of dengue had been reported to the Ministry of Health of Angola (MHA). As of May 31, a total of 517 suspected dengue cases had been reported and tested for dengue with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A total of 313 (60.5%) specimens tested positive for dengue, including one from a patient who died. All suspected cases were reported from Luanda Province, except for two from Malanje Province. Confirmatory diagnostic testing of 49 specimens (43 RDT-positive and six RDT-negative) at the CDC Dengue Branch confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection in 100% of the RDT-positive specimens and 50% of the RDT-negative specimens. Only DENV-1 was detected by molecular diagnostic testing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated this virus has been circulating in the region since at least 1968, strongly suggesting that dengue is endemic in Angola. Health-care professionals throughout Angola should be aware of the ongoing epidemic, the recommended practices for clinical management of dengue patients, and the need to report cases to MHA. Persons in Angola should seek medical care for acute febrile illness to reduce the risk for developing complications. Laboratory-confirmed dengue also has been reported from seven countries on four continents among persons who had recently traveled to Luanda, including 79 persons from Portugal. Angola is the third of four African countries to report a dengue outbreak in 2013. Persons returning from Africa with acute febrile illness should seek medical care, including testing for DENV infection, and suspected cases should be reported to public health authorities.

  3. ATHENA AIDE

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fink, R.K.; Callow, R.A.; Larson, T.K.; Ransom, V.H.

    1987-01-01

    An expert system called the ATHENA AIDE that assists in the preparation of input models for the ATHENA thermal-hydraulics code has been developed by researchers at the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory. The ATHENA AIDE uses a menu driven graphics interface and rule-based and object-oriented programming techniques to assist users of the ATHENA code in performing the tasks involved in preparing the card image input files required to run ATHENA calculations. The ATENA AIDE was developed and currently runs on single-user Xerox artificial intelligence workstations. Experience has shown that the intelligent modeling environment provided by the ATHENA AIDE expert system helps ease the modeling task by relieving the analyst of many mundane, repetitive, and error prone procedures involved in the construction of an input model. This reduces errors in the resulting models, helps promote standardized modeling practices, and allows models to be constructed more quickly than was previously possible

  4. HIV / AIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Relations Cyber Infrastructure Computational Biology Equal Employment Opportunity Ethics Global Research Office of Mission Integration and Financial Management Strategic Planning Workforce Effectiveness Workplace Solutions Technology Transfer Intellectual Property Division of AIDS ...

  5. AIDS guidelines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, R

    1986-04-30

    The Sun article, "Employers finding that AIDS in the workplace is a managerial nightmare" (April 3), did not accurately portray the status of AIDS in the workplace. The AIDS virus, HTLV III, is transmitted by body fluids, primarily semen and blood, and there is no known risk of transmitting the virus by casual contact in the workplace. The Center for Disease Control (CDC) released guidelines for child care workers last August. Guidelines on preventing transmission of AIDS in the workplace were issued by CDC in November 1985. These guidelines specifically discussed health care, personal service, and food service workers. The recommendations were against routine screening. Furthermore, employment should not be restricted on the basis of a positive HTLV III antibody test. A person with HTLV III infection should be exempt from the workplace only if there are circumstances interfering with job performance. In Maryland, the Governor's Task Force on AIDS has gone on record as endorsing CDC guidelines related to employment. Furthermore, the task force condemns discrimination based on the disease AIDS, AIDS Related Complex (ARC), or HTLV III infection. Increasingly AIDS patients are being considered legally disabled and therefore are protected by federal and state laws prohibiting discrimination on the basis of a handicap. Marylanders who are subjected to mandatory HTLV III screening in the workplace, or if discriminated against on the basis of HTLV III inefction, should contact the Maryland Commission on Human Relations, the Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene, or the Health Education Resource Organization (HERO). All 3 of these resources guarantee confidentiality. It is only by employees reporting incidents that a nightmare in the workplace can be avoided in Maryland. full text

  6. 42 CFR 423.578 - Exceptions process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 42 Public Health 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exceptions process. 423.578 Section 423.578 Public..., Redeterminations, and Reconsiderations § 423.578 Exceptions process. (a) Requests for exceptions to a plan's tiered... sponsor may design its exception process so that very high cost or unique drugs are not eligible for a...

  7. USAID steps up anti-AIDS program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-01-01

    This article considers the epidemic proportion of AIDS in developing countries, and discusses the U.S. Agency for International Development's (USAID) reworked and intensified strategy for HIV infection and AIDS prevention and control over the next 5 years. Developing and launching over 650 HIV and AIDS activities in 74 developing countries since 1986, USAID is the world's largest supporter of anti-AIDS programs. Over $91 million in bilateral assistance for HIV and AIDS prevention and control have been committed. USAID has also been the largest supporter of the World Health Organization's Global Program on AIDS since 1986. Interventions have included training peer educators, working to change the norms of sex behavior, and condom promotion. Recognizing that the developing world will increasingly account for an ever larger share of the world's HIV-infected population, USAID announced an intensified program of estimated investment increasing to approximately $400 million over a 5-year period. Strategy include funding for long-term, intensive interventions in 10-15 priority countries, emphasizing the treatment of other sexually transmitted diseases which facilitate the spread of HIV, making AIDS-related policy dialogue an explicit component of the Agency's AIDS program, and augmenting funding to community-based programs aimed at reducing high-risk sexual behaviors. The effect of AIDS upon child survival, adult mortality, urban populations, and socioeconomic development in developing countries is discussed. Program examples are also presented.

  8. Gender and AIDS: time to act

    OpenAIRE

    Greig, Alan; Peacock, Dean; Jewkes, Rachel; Msimang, Sisonke

    2008-01-01

    Gender has long been recognized as being key to understanding and addressing HIV and AIDS. Gender roles and relations that structure and legitimate women’s subordination and simultaneously foster models of masculinity that justify and reproduce men’s dominance over women exacerbate the spread and impact of the epidemic. Notions of masculinity prevalent in many parts of the world that equate being a man with dominance over women, sexual conquest and risk-taking are associated with less condom ...

  9. Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Keeling Matthew J

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic.

  10. Gender and HIV/AIDS in Bangladesh: A review

    OpenAIRE

    Joydeb Garai

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: The HIV/AIDS epidemic portrays a growing health threat in the world. In Bangladesh, the prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS is not yet high but it is gradually becoming a threat especially for women and young girls due to gender disparity. This systematic review was conducted to explore the gender-specific vulnerability to HIV/AIDS in Bangladesh in order to suggest to policy makers the best way for the prevention of HIV/AIDS in Bangladesh as well as in other low income countries. ...

  11. Cerebral toxoplasmosis in AIDS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christ, F.; Steudel, H.; Klotz, D.; Bonn Univ.; Bonn Univ.

    1986-01-01

    Since 1982 (Hauser and co-workers), literature has reported focal cerebral tissue charges in AIDS patients whose diagnosis was unclear at first but which could be identified finally as florid toxoplasmosis encephalitis by biopsy and autopsy. It was found that the value of otherwise reliable serological tests (KBR, Sabin-Feldmann tests, etc.) is questionable in patients with severely impaired or incompetent immune systems, and, in particular, that a negative or uncharacteristic test result may not preclude any opportunistic infection process. Furthermore, isolation of Toxoplasma gondii or specific antibodies from the cerebrospinal fluid will be successful in exceptional cases only. In patients with AIDS or lymphadenopathy syndrome, the differential diagnosis will have to include - first and foremost - reactivated toxoplasma infection (not newly acquired, as a rule) if central neurological symptoms occur. (orig.) [de

  12. Mutual aid fund commission

    CERN Multimedia

    Staff Association

    2011-01-01

    The composition of the Board of the Mutual Aid Fund for 2011 is as follows: President: Pascal Droux Vice-president: Connie Potter Treasurer: Louis Pereira Deputy treasurer: Barbara Brugger Secretary: Sonia Casenove Deputy secretary: Isabelle Mardirossian Members: Christopher David Thomas   Jean-Claude Vialis (GAC member)   Marie-Luce Falipou   Gunilla Santiard (Jean-Claude Vialis’s alternate) The role of the Fund is to provide financial help to members of personnel and beneficiaries of the Pension Fund who are in need of exceptional financial assistance. All requests are treated in the strictest confidence. Should you wish to apply for aid from the Fund, kindly contact any member of the Board as given above or Social Services, tel.74479 – 73867.

  13. Percolation and epidemics in random clustered networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Joel C.

    2009-08-01

    The social networks that infectious diseases spread along are typically clustered. Because of the close relation between percolation and epidemic spread, the behavior of percolation in such networks gives insight into infectious disease dynamics. A number of authors have studied percolation or epidemics in clustered networks, but the networks often contain preferential contacts in high degree nodes. We introduce a class of random clustered networks and a class of random unclustered networks with the same preferential mixing. Percolation in the clustered networks reduces the component sizes and increases the epidemic threshold compared to the unclustered networks.

  14. Predicting extinction rates in stochastic epidemic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwartz, Ira B; Billings, Lora; Dykman, Mark; Landsman, Alexandra

    2009-01-01

    We investigate the stochastic extinction processes in a class of epidemic models. Motivated by the process of natural disease extinction in epidemics, we examine the rate of extinction as a function of disease spread. We show that the effective entropic barrier for extinction in a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemic model displays scaling with the distance to the bifurcation point, with an unusual critical exponent. We make a direct comparison between predictions and numerical simulations. We also consider the effect of non-Gaussian vaccine schedules, and show numerically how the extinction process may be enhanced when the vaccine schedules are Poisson distributed

  15. Epidemic spreading in a hierarchical social network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grabowski, A; Kosiński, R A

    2004-09-01

    A model of epidemic spreading in a population with a hierarchical structure of interpersonal interactions is described and investigated numerically. The structure of interpersonal connections is based on a scale-free network. Spatial localization of individuals belonging to different social groups, and the mobility of a contemporary community, as well as the effectiveness of different interpersonal interactions, are taken into account. Typical relations characterizing the spreading process, like a range of epidemic and epidemic curves, are discussed. The influence of preventive vaccinations on the spreading process is investigated. The critical value of preventively vaccinated individuals that is sufficient for the suppression of an epidemic is calculated. Our results are compared with solutions of the master equation for the spreading process and good agreement of the character of this process is found.

  16. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  17. The prediction of epidemics through mathematical modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaus, Catherine

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models may be resorted to in an endeavor to predict the development of epidemics. The SIR model is one of the applications. Still too approximate, the use of statistics awaits more data in order to come closer to reality.

  18. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  19. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  20. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  1. Rape and HIV post-exposure prophylaxis: addressing the dual epidemics in South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Julia C; Martin, Lorna J; Denny, Lynette

    2003-11-01

    In South Africa, a country notable for both a rapidly escalating AIDS epidemic and high levels of sexual violence, the issue of HIV post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) following rape has recently come to the fore, and a policy supporting provision of PEP has been approved by the national government. This paper compares the conditions for providing PEP in Europe and North America with the conditions faced by two initiatives in South Africa, one serving a primarily rural base, and one urban. It is based on a review of the literature on sexual violence in South Africa and use of PEP following occupational and non-occupational exposure. It incorporates perspectives from in-depth interviews in 2000 with 18 key informants, including survivors of sexual violence, gender and HIV activists, domestic violence NGOs, rape crisis centres, physicians, lawyers, researchers and HIV/AIDS advisors in the Department of Health. The paper argues that given the scientific evidence for PEP, and the nature of the dual epidemics of HIV and sexual violence in South Africa, the public health and social justice rationale for implementing PEP equals and indeed exceeds that put forward in industrialised countries. However, delays in accessing PEP caused by the public justice system and lack of training for service providers constitute significant obstacles to effective implementation. In this respect, provision of PEP presents an opportunity to reform and strengthen existing services for post-rape care and to link attention to the epidemic of sexual violence to HIV/AIDS prevention.

  2. The macroeconomics of targeting: the case of an enduring epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Clive; Gersbach, Hans

    2009-01-01

    What is the right balance among policy interventions in order to ensure economic growth over the long run when an epidemic causes heavy mortality among young adults? We argue that, in general, policies to combat the disease and promote education must be concentrated, in certain ways, at first on some subgroups of society. This concentration involves what we term the macroeconomics of targeting. The central comparison is then between programs under which supported families enjoy the benefits of spending on health and education simultaneously (DT), and those under which the benefits in these two domains are sequenced (ST). When levels of human capital are uniformly low at the outbreak, DT is superior to ST if the mortality rate exceeds some threshold value. Outside aid makes DT more attractive; but DT restricts support to fewer families initially and so increases inequality. A summary account of the empirical evidence is followed by an application of the framework to South Africa.

  3. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  4. Business leaders form alliance to fight AIDS. Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-10-11

    It is estimated that 33% of deaths among the working population in Thailand by the year 2000 will result from AIDS. AIDS mortality will bring decreased productivity, increased healthcare costs, a decline in tourism, reduced labor exports, and labor shortages. The AIDS epidemic in the country therefore has a direct impact upon companies' productivity and resulting profitability. Acknowledging this reality and the need for action, the Managing Director of Northwest Airlines for Thailand, Indochina, and West Asia, James P. Reinnoldt, and the General Manager of Bangkok's Regent Hotel, Bill Black, started the nonprofit Thailand Business Coalition on AIDS (TBCA) to combat AIDS. The TBCA will provide leadership, coordination, education, and resources to help companies and the business sector get a positive response to the AIDS dilemma. The organization was established to lead through and beyond the AIDS epidemic in the interest of business by promoting coherent HIV/AIDS policies and workplace education with help from nongovernmental organizations. The TBCA will be supported by membership dues, private contributions, and grants. Member companies will receive a manual and a quarterly newsletter and be allowed to join a training course on managing AIDS in the workplace. The organization's target of enlisting 250 member companies within the next 12 months means that help will be rendered in the training of 50,000 Thai workers.

  5. Section on AIDS: the politics of survival. Introduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieger, N; Margo, G

    1990-01-01

    In one short decade, the politics of AIDS has become the politics of survival. In a world whose social order is changing before our eyes, AIDS insistently brings new meaning to the age-old question of what it is we must do to survive--as individuals, as families, as communities, as nations, as members of an interdependent world. The goal of this Special Section is to promote frank discussion, from an explicitly progressive perspective, of what it will take to stop the AIDS epidemic and deal with the devastation it has already wrought. Articles by AIDS researchers, service providers, and activists from around the world will address the numerous social, political, economic, and cultural factors that affect both the spread of AIDS and the social response to the epidemic. Topics to be considered in this and future issues of the Journal include: AIDS and community survival in the United States; women and AIDS, particularly in economically underdeveloped countries; the politics and economics of AIDS interventions in Latin America and the Caribbean; and the growing international AIDS industry.

  6. The First AIDS Drugs | Center for Cancer Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faced with the burgeoning HIV/AIDS epidemic in the 1980s, NCI’s intramural program developed the first therapies to effectively treat the disease. These discoveries helped transform a fatal diagnosis to the manageable condition it is for many today.

  7. Forging Collaborative Relationships in Brazil: From AIDS to ZIKV.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Connor, David H; Osorio, Jorge E; Tanuri, Amilcar; Kallas, Esper G

    2016-06-30

    The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak has stimulated collaborations between Brazilians, researchers from other South American countries, and scientists from around the world. The Brazilian response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic demonstrates capabilities that can be applied to the study of ZIKV and provides lessons for developing effective international infectious disease research collaborations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Economic analysis of HIV and AIDS control in Indonesia.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siregar, A.Y.M.

    2014-01-01

    The HIV/AIDS in Indonesia is characterized by an increasing overall prevalence led by high risk groups, a weak Indonesian health system and low level of funding. In such a context, reliable, objective evidence on the costs and effectiveness of interventions to reduce the epidemic, is a key input

  9. 7 CFR 3565.13 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Agency official may request and the Administrator or designee may make an exception to any requirement or... program objectives, and provided that such an exception is not inconsistent with any applicable law or...

  10. 7 CFR 4280.104 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Efficiency Improvements Program § 4280.104 Exception authority. The Administrator may, on a case-by-case basis, make an exception to any requirement or provision of this subpart that is not inconsistent with...

  11. 7 CFR 4274.381 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Program (IRP) § 4274.381 Exception authority. The Administrator may, in individual cases, grant an exception to any requirement or provision of this subpart which is not inconsistent with any applicable law...

  12. The 'end of AIDS' project: Mobilising evidence, bureaucracy, and big data for a final biomedical triumph over AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc-Madlala, Suzanne; Broomhall, Lorie; Fieno, John

    2017-12-04

    Efforts are currently underway by major orchestrators and funders of the global AIDS response to realise the vision of achieving an end to AIDS by 2030. Unlike previous efforts to provide policy guidance or to encourage 'best practice' approaches for combatting AIDS, the end of AIDS project involves the promotion of a clear set of targets, tools, and interventions for a final biomedical solution to the epidemic. In this paper, we examine the bureaucratic procedures of one major AIDS funder that helped to foster a common vision and mission amongst a global AIDS community with widely divergent views on how best to address the epidemic. We focus on the methods, movements, and materials that are central to the project of ending AIDS, including those related to biomedical forms of evidence and big data science. We argue that these approaches have limitations and social scientists need to pay close attention to the end of AIDS project, particularly in contexts where clinical interventions might transform clinical outcomes, but where the social, economic, and cultural determinants of HIV and AIDS remain largely intact and increasingly obscured.

  13. Negotiating Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Whitfield, Lindsay; Fraser, Alastair

    2011-01-01

    This article presents a new analytical approach to the study of aid negotiations. Building on existing approaches but trying to overcome their limitations, it argues that factors outside of individual negotiations (or the `game' in game-theoretic approaches) significantly affect the preferences...

  14. Science and HIV/AIDS in South Africa: a review of the literature

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Gouws, E

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available in this review, 1983 to 1989, the focus of the scientific research was on men who have sex with men and on AIDS. However, several papers discussed the likely impacts of the epidemic and warned of the threat posed by HIV/AIDS to South Africa....

  15. Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS among Asians and Pacific Islanders in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaidi, Irum F.; Crepaz, Nicole; Song, Ruiguang; Wan, Choi K.; Lin, Lillian S.; Hu, Dale J.; Sy, Francisco S.

    2005-01-01

    Although the percentage of overall AIDS diagnoses remains low among Asian and Pacific Islanders (APIs) in the United States compared with other racial/ethnic groups, research on API risk behaviors and health status suggest that the low number of AIDS cases may not provide a full picture of the epidemic and issues faced by this understudied and…

  16. HIV/AIDS, the erosion of social capital and the collapse of rural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    HIV/AIDS is a major driver of livelihood insecurity. The AIDS epidemic, through the death or disability of economically productive adults, destabilises and erodes the social networks which sustain the livelihoods of vulnerable households. This paper draws upon research with home-based care workers and family members of ...

  17. HIV/AIDS and Indian youth – a review of the literature (1980 - 2008 ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Even though condom awareness is fairly high, condom usage is low. Of late, sex tourism and its implications for the HIV/AIDS epidemic present an increasing concern. Indian youth appear to hold negative attitudes towards HIV testing and people living with HIV/AIDS. Although a number of preventive and control ...

  18. HIV/AIDS and pregnancy-related deaths in Blantyre, Malawi | Lema ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: HIV/AIDS epidemic is one of the major factors affecting women's health and impeding national efforts to improve it especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current evidence indicates that HIV/ AIDS is increasingly becoming a major cause or contributing factor to pregnancy-related deaths, almost overtaking the ...

  19. Analysis of the Effect of HIV/AIDS on Productivity and Welfare of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Analysis of the Effect of HIV/AIDS on Productivity and Welfare of Women Farmers in ... a tremendous increase in prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS epidemic in recent time, ... reduction in cash flow while 22% complained about their inability to work.

  20. 8 CFR 258.2 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... longshore work at any United States port under the exceptions provided for in paragraphs (a)(2), (b), or (c... hazardous dry bulk cargo. (i) All tankers qualify for the hazardous cargo exception, including parcel tankers, except for a tanker that has been gas-freed to transport non-hazardous dry bulk commodities. (ii...

  1. 45 CFR 148.220 - Excepted benefits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 45 Public Welfare 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Excepted benefits. 148.220 Section 148.220 Public... FOR THE INDIVIDUAL HEALTH INSURANCE MARKET Preemption; Excepted Benefits § 148.220 Excepted benefits... provision of the benefits described in paragraphs (a) and (b) of this section (or any combination of the...

  2. [AIDS prevention in Germany].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pott, E

    2007-04-01

    In 1987 the national AIDS prevention campaign "Gib AIDS keine Chance" (Don't give AIDS a chance) was started in Germany. After a very difficult and controversial political debate about a probably successful response to AIDS, in the end a political decision was made in favour of the implementation of a long term "social learning strategy". Thus, since then the Bundeszentrale für gesundheitliche Aufklärung (Federal Centre for Health Education, BZgA) has been running the campaign on behalf of the Federal Ministry of Health. The result of this prevention program is a low rate of infections. In Germany there were 2600 newly diagnosed infections in 2005: 59 % in homosexual men, 16 % by heterosexual contacts, 17 % in people from high prevalence countries and 7 % in i.v. drug users. In comparison to the international situation Germany has a relatively low HIV-prevalence even nowadays. However, Germany has also been confronted with an increasing number of newly diagnosed infections in the last few years. When the prevention program was started it was very important to build new structures for a successful implementation of the campaign. That meant for instance to build up an effective infrastructure for cooperation between the governmental and the nongovernmental sector, including organising the coordinated action among the partners at the federal, regional and local levels. Likewise, international networking was of great importance. A key element, relevant for the success of the campaign was the close cooperation at the federal level between the BZgA and the Deutsche AIDS Hilfe (German AIDS Help, DAH), to combine the highreach intervention in low-prevalence populations with intensive interventions for high prevalence groups. An effective national AIDS prevention campaign must reach the whole population; inform the public about the main risks of infection, about methods of protection and about what is not infectious. Moreover groups with a higher level of risk of

  3. Large heterogeneity of the obesity epidemic in Danish adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heitmann, B.L.; Strøger, U.; Mikkelsen, K.L.

    2004-01-01

    group, except for an increasing trend among men aged 50 years and above. CONCLUSION: Although the overall Danish trend for obesity prevalence, similar to trends world-wide, showed a marked increase, the trend was very heterogeneous and generally neither uniform nor significantly positive; the changes......OBJECTIVE: To examine to what extent the obesity epidemic is a general phenomenon in adults by assessing the secular change, by birth cohort and age, in the prevalence of obesity and median body mass index (BMI) in Danish men and women measured between 1964 and 1994. DESIGN: Multiple cross......-sectional population surveys. SETTING: The greater Copenhagen area of Denmark. SUBJECTS: The study included 17,065 men (30 336 observations) and 13,417 women (24,065 observations), aged 20-84 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Trends in median BMI and prevalence of obesity estimated from measured height and weight in 10...

  4. Assessing node risk and vulnerability in epidemics on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, T.

    2015-01-01

    Which nodes are most vulnerable to an epidemic spreading through a network, and which carry the highest risk of causing a major outbreak if they are the source of the infection? Here we show how these questions can be answered to good approximation using the cavity method. Several curious properties of node vulnerability and risk are explored: some nodes are more vulnerable than others to weaker infections, yet less vulnerable to stronger ones; a node is always more likely to be caught in an outbreak than it is to start one, except when the disease has a deterministic lifetime; the rank order of node risk depends on the details of the distribution of infectious periods.

  5. Concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leung, Ka Yin; Kretzschmar, Mirjam

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study is to investigate whether concurrency can drive an HIV epidemic by moving R0 across the epidemic threshold. DESIGN AND METHODS: We use a mathematical framework for a dynamic partnership network and the spread of a one-stage infection to study how concurrency is

  6. Meta Analytic Measurement of HIV/AIDS Awareness, Prevention and Accepting Attitude toward People Living with HIV/AIDS in the Seven States of North East India

    OpenAIRE

    Dulumoni Das; Rupak Gupta

    2011-01-01

    Background: The HIV/AIDS epidemic continues to gather momentum in India, destroying innocent lives and imperilling future generations. Controlling spread of HIV is critical. Ignoring this will lead millions of Indians in grip of this pandemic. Despite valiant efforts by government agencies and heritable groups, large cross-sections of Indian society still lack information about the nature of the disease and how individuals can protect themselves against it. As a result, the epidemic is spread...

  7. Tactile Aids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohtaramossadat Homayuni

    1996-04-01

    Full Text Available Tactile aids, which translate sound waves into vibrations that can be felt by the skin, have been used for decades by people with severe/profound hearing loss to enhance speech/language development and improve speechreading.The development of tactile aids dates from the efforts of Goults and his co-workers in the 1920s; Although The power supply was too voluminous and it was difficult to carry specially by children, it was too huge and heavy to be carried outside the laboratories and its application was restricted to the experimental usage. Nowadays great advances have been performed in producing this instrument and its numerous models is available in markets around the world.

  8. Ten Putative Contributors to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    McAllister, Emily J.; Dhurandhar, Nikhil V.; Keith, Scott W.; Aronne, Louis J.; Barger, Jamie; Baskin, Monica; Benca, Ruth M.; Biggio, Joseph; Boggiano, Mary M.; Eisenmann, Joe C.; Elobeid, Mai; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Gluckman, Peter; Hanlon, Erin C.; Katzmarzyk, Peter; Pietrobelli, Angelo; Redden, David T.; Ruden, Douglas M.; Wang, Chenxi; Waterland, Robert A.; Wright, Suzanne M.; Allison, David B.

    2010-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is a global issue and shows no signs of abating, while the cause of this epidemic remains unclear. Marketing practices of energy-dense foods and institutionally-driven declines in physical activity are the alleged perpetrators for the epidemic, despite a lack of solid evidence to demonstrate their causal role. While both may contribute to obesity, we call attention to their unquestioned dominance in program funding and public efforts to reduce obesity, and propose several alternative putative contributors that would benefit from equal consideration and attention. Evidence for microorganisms, epigenetics, increasing maternal age, greater fecundity among people with higher adiposity, assortative mating, sleep debt, endocrine disruptors, pharmaceutical iatrogenesis, reduction in variability of ambient temperatures, and intrauterine and intergenerational effects, as contributing factors to the obesity epidemic are reviewed herein. While the evidence is strong for some contributors such as pharmaceutical-induced weight gain, it is still emerging for other reviewed factors. Considering the role of such putative etiological factors of obesity may lead to comprehensive, cause specific, and effective strategies for prevention and treatment of this global epidemic. PMID:19960394

  9. Accelerating harm reduction interventions to confront the HIV epidemic in the Western Pacific and Asia: the role of WHO (WPRO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yifei Hu

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The epidemic of HIV/AIDS linked to injecting drug usage is one of the most explosive in recent years. After a historical epicentre in Europe, South and North America, at present it is clearly the main cause of dissemination of the epidemic in Eastern Europe and some key Asian countries. Recently, 10 African countries reported the spread of HIV through people who inject drugs (PWID, breaking one of the final geographical barriers to the globalization of the epidemic of HIV among and from PWID. Several countries of the Asia and Pacific Region have HIV epidemics that are driven by injecting drug usage. Harm reduction interventions have been implemented in many countries and potential barriers to implementation are being overcome. Harm reduction is no longer a marginal approach in the Region; instead, it is the core tool for responding to the HIV/AIDS epidemic among PWID. The development of a comprehensive response in the Region has been remarkable, including scaling up of needle and syringe programmes (NSPs, methadone maintenance treatment (MMT, and care, support and treatment for PWID. This development is being followed up by strong ongoing changes in policies and legislations. The main issue now is to enhance interventions to a level that can impact the epidemic. The World Health Organization (WHO is one of the leading UN agencies promoting harm reduction. Since the establishment of the Global Programme on AIDS, WHO has been working towards an effective response to the HIV epidemic among PWID. WHO's work is organized into a number of components: establishing an evidence base; advocacy; development of normative standards, tools and guidelines; providing technical support to countries; ensuring access to essential medicines, diagnostics and commodities; and mobilizing resources. In this paper, we trace the course of development of the HIV/AIDS epidemic among and from PWID in the Western Pacific and Asia Region (WPRO as well as WHO's role

  10. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  11. Cholera epidemic among Rwandan refugees: experience of ICDDR,B in Goma, Zaire.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siddique, A K

    1994-01-01

    In July 1994, one of the worst cholera epidemics broke out among the nearly a million Rwandan refugees in Goma, eastern Zaire. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees estimated that nearly 12,000 people died during the epidemic. The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) sent an eight-member medical team to Goma headed by Dr AK Siddique, a senior scientist of the Center and head of the Epidemic Control Preparedness Program, Dacca, Bangladesh. During their two-week stay, the team, in collaboration with UNICEF and the Ministry of Health, Zaire, conducted epidemiological assessment, operated a temporary treatment center and provided technical advice on case management of cholera and shigellosis to other health workers. The team also set up a microbiology laboratory in Goma to identify the pathogens responsible for the epidemic and their drug sensitivity patterns. The team visited a number of temporary treatment facilities in two of the five camp sites and provided technical advice to the health-care providers. They also visited treatment facilities in Goma city, where an estimated 200,000 refugees were affected by the epidemic. Deaths from cholera even in the treatment centers were much higher than expected. The overall case-fatality rate in the treatment centers was nearly 15%. Laboratory investigations showed that the initial epidemic was indeed caused by Vibrio cholerae strains resistant to tetracycline and doxycycline. By the first week of August, the number of cholera cases was declining, but the number of dysentery cases was increasing rapidly. Predominantly Shigella dysenteriae type 1 was responsible, which was resistant to most drugs used for treating shigellosis, except mecillinam. Inappropriate rehydration therapy and inadequate experience of health workers failed to prevent deaths. The team took over the operation of temporary treatment center at Katindo in Goma city with one of the highest case-fatality rates (14

  12. AIDS in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shreedhar, J

    1995-01-01

    A major HIV epidemic is underway in India, home to 900 million people and the world's second largest population. The director-general of the Indian Council of Medical Research expects India by the year 2000 to be the country with the largest number of HIV infections, with some experts predicting 5 million people to be infected with HIV in India by the year 2000. Others predict 30-55 million to be infected. Although HIV is increasingly spreading to typically low-risk group populations, it is the female sex workers and their clients, long distance truck drivers, men who have sex with men, blood transfusion donors and recipients, and IV drug users throughout the country who are both the reservoirs of HIV and vectors of transmission to the general population. For example, 52% of sex workers in Bombay in 1994 were found to be infected with HIV. Studies indicate that India's long-distance truck drivers average 200 sexual encounters per year; at any given time, 70% of them have STDs. Preliminary surveys estimate that almost 33% are infected with HIV. HIV seroprevalence among truckers in Madras requesting HIV testing because they have STDs increased from almost 60% in 1993 to 91% in 1995. Moreover, the illegal status of homosexuality in India has created an underground culture in which HIV and STDs are rampant; one 1995 study in the Sangli district of Maharashtra found 50% of men who have sex with men to be infected with HIV. Half of India's blood for transfusion is drawn from commercial donors. A Bombay study, however, found 86% of such donors screened in 1992 to be HIV-seropositive and not all blood banks comply with mandatory screening laws. As widespread HIV infection evolves into a multitude of AIDS cases, India's health care system and economy will be heavily taxed, and the number of tuberculosis (TB) cases greatly increased. More than half the population carries the TB bacillus. The government by 1992 had drafted a national prevention and control plan and formed the

  13. HIV/AIDS: global trends, global funds and delivery bottlenecks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hadingham Jacqui

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Globalisation affects all facets of human life, including health and well being. The HIV/AIDS epidemic has highlighted the global nature of human health and welfare and globalisation has given rise to a trend toward finding common solutions to global health challenges. Numerous international funds have been set up in recent times to address global health challenges such as HIV. However, despite increasingly large amounts of funding for health initiatives being made available to poorer regions of the world, HIV infection rates and prevalence continue to increase world wide. As a result, the AIDS epidemic is expanding and intensifying globally. Worst affected are undoubtedly the poorer regions of the world as combinations of poverty, disease, famine, political and economic instability and weak health infrastructure exacerbate the severe and far-reaching impacts of the epidemic. One of the major reasons for the apparent ineffectiveness of global interventions is historical weaknesses in the health systems of underdeveloped countries, which contribute to bottlenecks in the distribution and utilisation of funds. Strengthening these health systems, although a vital component in addressing the global epidemic, must however be accompanied by mitigation of other determinants as well. These are intrinsically complex and include social and environmental factors, sexual behaviour, issues of human rights and biological factors, all of which contribute to HIV transmission, progression and mortality. An equally important factor is ensuring an equitable balance between prevention and treatment programmes in order to holistically address the challenges presented by the epidemic.

  14. AIDS and African smallholder agriculture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mutangadura, G

    1998-09-01

    During the Responding to HIV/AIDS: Technology Development Needs for African Smallholder Agriculture Conference in Harare, about 70 delegates participated from government and nongovernmental organizations, community-based organizations, agricultural research, and regional and international organizations. The aims of the conference were to analyze the impact of HIV/AIDS on smallholder agriculture; identify the necessary technologies, policy, and institutional responses; and propose frameworks for future activities. The conference participants noted that the onset of HIV/AIDS has changed the African rural environment in which existing policy and programs on agriculture have been operating. In view of this, recommendations on technology and development and policy to mitigate the impact of the epidemic were highlighted; namely, promote existing labor and capital saving technologies; review existing agricultural extension; develop appropriate technologies to reduce the time spent on water and fuel collection; develop income-generating activities; strengthen existing community-based initiatives; and redefine the criteria for land tenure and ownership. Moreover, collaboration between development organizations and applied research were also emphasized.

  15. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...... that they are communicable, even if they are not infectious. We need to more critically explore how they might be communicable in specific environments. All diseases with epidemic potential, we argue, should be assumed to be commun icable in a broader sense, and that the underlying medical distinction between infectious...... and noninfectious diseases confuses our understanding of NCD epidemics when these categories are treated as synonymous with ‘communicable’ and ‘noncommunicable’ diseases, respectively. The dominant role accorded to the concept of ‘lifestyle’, with its focus on individual responsibility, is part of the problem...

  16. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nekovee, Maziar [BT Research, Polaris 134, Adastral Park, Martlesham, Suffolk IP5 3RE (United Kingdom); Centre for Computational Science, University College London, 20 Gordon Street, London WC1H 0AJ (United Kingdom)

    2007-06-15

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  17. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin; Wang, Shengbin; Shi, Meixia; Jin, Xiaogang

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  18. Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

    2013-02-01

    Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

  19. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-06-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet.

  20. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  1. Worm epidemics in wireless ad hoc networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nekovee, Maziar

    2007-01-01

    A dramatic increase in the number of computing devices with wireless communication capability has resulted in the emergence of a new class of computer worms which specifically target such devices. The most striking feature of these worms is that they do not require Internet connectivity for their propagation but can spread directly from device to device using a short-range radio communication technology, such as WiFi or Bluetooth. In this paper, we develop a new model for epidemic spreading of these worms and investigate their spreading in wireless ad hoc networks via extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Our studies show that the threshold behaviour and dynamics of worm epidemics in these networks are greatly affected by a combination of spatial and temporal correlations which characterize these networks, and are significantly different from the previously studied epidemics in the Internet

  2. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  3. AIDS: a new frontier in epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, S A

    1994-01-01

    HIV infection has become a pandemic. As such, it is the most recent inclusion to epidemiology studies. A review of past epidemics allows a different perspective on the current status of scientific knowledge regarding AIDS. HIV is a retrovirus, one of three groups identified. The other two groups are commonly referred to as HTLV I and II and do not cause AIDS. Two forms of HIV (HIV-1 and HIV-2) make up the third group, HTLV-III. As with any research, various theories are formed, tested, and often rejected. Some theories receive excessive publicity before testing, resulting in incorrect public beliefs that become myths. The cumulative number of cases of AIDS in the United States is 361,509, as of December 31, 1993. Healthcare workers experience multiple opportunities for exposure to the infection in the course of their duties. Based on data from the 1993 BMET/CE survey, several biohazard issues, as well as preventive measures, are discussed.

  4. Effects of human dynamics on epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ruiqi; Wang, Wenxu; Di, Zengru

    2017-02-01

    Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic spreading dynamics influenced by spatial structure and human dynamics (including both human mobility and human interaction intensity). We propose a systematical model to depict nationwide epidemic spreading in Côte d'Ivoire, which integrates multiple factors, such as human mobility, human interaction intensity, and demographic features. We provide insights to aid in modeling and predicting the epidemic spreading process by data-driven simulation and theoretical analysis, which is otherwise beyond the scope of local evaluation and geometrical views. We show that the requirement that the average local basic reproductive number to be greater than unity is not necessary for outbreaks of epidemics. The observed spreading phenomenon can be roughly explained as a heterogeneous diffusion-reaction process by redefining mobility distance according to the human mobility volume between nodes, which is beyond the geometrical viewpoint. However, the heterogeneity of human dynamics still poses challenges to precise prediction.

  5. JPRS Report, Epidemiology, AIDS

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    1993-01-01

    Partial Contents: AIDS in Burundi, Rwanda AIDS Situation in Country Examined, Estimated Over 750,000 HIV Positive, In 3 Years 4 Million May Be AIDS Carriers, Events at National AIDS Convention Analyzed, Senior Army...

  6. The role of the community conversation approach in facilitating HIV/AIDS competence and utilisation of testing services in Africa : the case of Ethiopia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nigatu, Yeshambel T.; Abera, Solomon; Mekonnen, Medhanit G.; Melesse, Wondiber N.

    2015-01-01

    Background: HIV/AIDS is a global epidemic. Although unpublished studies showed that the number of AIDS related deaths has fallen by 39% between 2005 and 2013 in sub-Saharan Africa, the region still accounted for 74% of all the people dying from AIDS-related causes. While the community conversation

  7. A moment in time: AIDS and business.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloom, D E; Rosenfield, A

    2000-09-01

    Business has transformed the planet. But this gives it new responsibilities. People now expect business leaders to lead--and not just respond when things go wrong. HIV/AIDS is a global problem, with over 16.3 million people now thought to have died of the disease (Global Summary of HIV/AIDS Epidemic, UNAIDS, December 1999). Without action now, the pandemic will worsen, health services will come under relentless pressure and the number of people dying will increase exponentially. So why should business sit up and take notice? First: money. AIDS is slowly strangling many businesses and economies--and in a global market, everyone eventually suffers. Without profit, there is no business--so the business community needs to act to protect its bottom line. Second: people. Over 80% of those dying are in their 20s, 30s, and 40s. Businesses are losing workers and customers, and human networks that have taken decades to build. Third: imagination. Business is inventive, creative and fast-moving. It has the opportunity to use these strengths for the benefit of the wider community. It's time to pit business ideas (and some money, too) against the threat of AIDS. The course of the AIDS epidemic is not inevitable. The world's businesses have the skills and intensity to make a measurable difference, especially if they find public sector and NGO partners with whom they share a vision. A focused, coordinated, results-driven effort will hit AIDS hard. The HIV virus moves fast (and is mutating all the time). Business has the opportunity to make a difference. It must grasp this opportunity. And grasp if fast.

  8. Scientific approaches to AIDS prevention and control in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, T; Shao, Y

    2011-04-01

    The HIV epidemic in China started among intravenous drug users in the late 1980s. The second wave of the epidemic was caused by an outbreak in the paid plasma donors in central China in the mid-1990s. Sexually transmitted HIV cases have steadily increased and comprised more than half the reported HIV/AIDS infections since 2007. In the last 5 years, there has been a sharp increase of HIV infection in men who have sex with men. The HIV epidemic in China has expanded from high-risk groups to the general population and from rural regions to urban areas. This brief article discusses the history of HIV epidemics in China and the challenges facing the current AIDS control efforts in the country. It explains that only scientific approaches can sustain the national AIDS control programs and introduce the type of research needed to address those challenges. The selected research areas include molecular epidemiology, drug resistance surveillance, and the Chinese HIV vaccine research.

  9. Molecular Epidemiological Study of Mumps Epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuba, Yumani; Kyan, Hisako; Arakaki, Eri; Takara, Taketoshi; Kato, Takashi; Okano, Sho; Oshiro, Yuko; Kudaka, Jun; Kidokoro, Minoru

    2017-05-24

    Although major mumps epidemics occurred every 4-5 years in Okinawa Prefecture in Japan, no laboratory diagnoses were conducted. A mumps epidemic started in Okinawa in October 2014, and we collected clinical samples from 31 patients in 4 areas (Hokubu, Nanbu, Miyako, and Yaeyama) from July to December 2015, for virus isolation and RT-PCR, whose positive ratios were 52% and 87%, respectively. Phylogenetic analyses showed that all isolates were classified into genotype G, and with one exception, consisted of 2 subgenotypes, Ge (55.6%) and Gw (40.7%), which have been prominent in Japan recently. One isolate was classified in another lineage, which was detected in Japan for the first time, and was similar to a Hong Kong isolate from 2014. Remarkably, the geographic distributions of the 2 major lineages were separated. The Ge viruses were isolated from the main island of Okinawa and the Yaeyama Islands, whereas the Gw isolates were mainly detected from the Miyako Islands. These results suggest that the Ge and Gw mumps viruses mainly caused the mumps epidemics of 2015 in Okinawa, and that they spread independently in separate regions. This is the first report describing the molecular epidemiology of mumps epidemics in Okinawa Prefecture.

  10. Representations of HIV/AIDS management in South African newspapers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Catherine; Gibbs, Andy

    2008-07-01

    In South Africa, numerous strong policy statements emphasise the importance of involving communities in HIV/AIDS management, yet in practice such involvement tends to be tokenistic and minimal. Social representations in the public sphere constitute the symbolic dimension within which responses to HIV and AIDS are conceptualised and transformed into action. Through an analysis of newspaper articles, we explore the dominant representations of HIV/AIDS management circulating in the South African public sphere and examine how community engagement is depicted. We highlight the way media representations reflect narrow understandings of HIV and AIDS as a predominantly medical problem, while depicting HIV/AIDS management as a top-down activity dominated by prominent individuals, such as national leaders, health professionals and philanthropists, thus marginalising the role played by communities, who are often depicted as passive recipients of interventions by active outsiders. These representations fail to reflect the key role played by members of grassroots communities in responding to the HIV epidemic. Such representations provide flawed conceptual tools for shaping responses to the epidemic, given that HIV-related programmes are unlikely to have optimal outcomes unless they resonate with the perceived needs and interests of their target communities, as we contend that effective HIV/AIDS management is best achieved through active participation by communities in HIV/AIDS management strategies. We discuss the implications of a more 'civic-minded journalism.'

  11. 48 CFR 39.204 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... CONTRACTING ACQUISITION OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Electronic and Information Technology 39.204 Exceptions. The... standards to the maximum extent practicable; (b) Is for a national security system; (c) Is acquired by a... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exceptions. 39.204 Section...

  12. 7 CFR 774.24 - Exception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SPECIAL PROGRAMS EMERGENCY LOAN FOR SEED PRODUCERS PROGRAM § 774.24 Exception. The Agency may grant an exception to any of the requirements of this section, if the proposed change is in the best financial interest of the Government and not inconsistent with the authorizing statute or other applicable law. ...

  13. 7 CFR 773.23 - Exception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SPECIAL PROGRAMS SPECIAL APPLE LOAN PROGRAM § 773.23 Exception. The Agency may grant an exception to the security requirements of this section, if the proposed change is in the best financial interest of the Government and not inconsistent with the authorizing statute or other applicable law. ...

  14. 22 CFR 126.3 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Exceptions. 126.3 Section 126.3 Foreign Relations DEPARTMENT OF STATE INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC IN ARMS REGULATIONS GENERAL POLICIES AND PROVISIONS... of the United States Government, the Director, Office of Defense Trade Controls may make an exception...

  15. 24 CFR 51.105 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Exceptions. 51.105 Section 51.105... ENVIRONMENTAL CRITERIA AND STANDARDS Noise Abatement and Control § 51.105 Exceptions. (a) Flexibility for non... acceptability standard of 65 decibels, the Acceptable Zone may be shifted to Ldn 70 on a case-by-case basis if...

  16. 44 CFR 17.625 - Exception provision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exception provision. 17.625 Section 17.625 Emergency Management and Assistance FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCY, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY GENERAL GOVERNMENTWIDE REQUIREMENTS FOR DRUG-FREE WORKPLACE (GRANTS) § 17.625 Exception...

  17. Educating Exceptional Children: Current Issue for Educators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Specht, Jacqueline

    2004-01-01

    The Oxford dictionary defines exceptionality as "forming an exception; very unusual; outstandingly good." A thesaurus provides the following synonyms: outstanding, excellent, brilliant, antonym of ordinary. In education and psychology textbooks and journals, however, it is often defined in ways that focus on limitations, with synonyms…

  18. 48 CFR 1325.103 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... FOREIGN ACQUISITION Buy American Act-Supplies 1325.103 Exceptions. (a) The designee authorized to make a... has an agreement with a foreign government providing a blanket exception to the Buy America Act is set... documentation supporting a determination that nonavailabilty of an article is likely to affect future...

  19. 29 CFR 1905.28 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ACT OF 1970 Hearings § 1905.28 Exceptions. Within 20 days after service of a... 29 Labor 5 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exceptions. 1905.28 Section 1905.28 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR RULES OF...

  20. 48 CFR 1503.602 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... BUSINESS PRACTICES AND PERSONAL CONFLICTS OF INTEREST Contracts with Government Employees or Organizations... Resources Management may authorize an exception, in writing, to the policy in FAR 3.601 and 1503.601 for the... shall consult with the Designated Agency Ethics Official before authorizing any exceptions. [60 FR 38505...

  1. 48 CFR 9.304 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exceptions. 9.304 Section... CONTRACTOR QUALIFICATIONS First Article Testing and Approval 9.304 Exceptions. Normally, testing and approval is not required in contracts for— (a) Research or development; (b) Products requiring qualification...

  2. AIDS. 1st annual George H. Gallup Memorial Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1988-06-01

    Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) was selected as the subject for the 1st annual George H Gallup Memorial Survey. This survey, conducted in August 1987-April 1988 in 35 countries, measured the level of awareness of AIDS, the extent of concern about AIDS, knowledge, changes in behavior resulting form the AIDS epidemic, and attitudes toward people with AIDS. Overall, the poll's findings attest to the effectiveness of the health education efforts of governmental and nongovernmental organizations. Awareness that AIDS poses an urgent international health problem was almost universal in the 35 samples. In about half of these countries, AIDS was identified as the most important national health problem; in the remaining countries, AIDS was ranked 2nd to cancer. The proportion of respondents expressing a fear of personally contracting the AIDS virus ranged from lows of under 10% in most of Europe to a high of 45% among South African blacks. A majority of respondents in the US, Colombia, the Philippines, Brazil, Nigeria, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Chile believed that AIDS will soon spread beyond current risk groups to the general population. Despite widespread awareness of the grave threat posed by AIDS, insufficient numbers of respondents reported that they had made specific behavioral changes intended to protect themselves form HIV infection. Overall, about half of those interviewed indicated they are now more cautious in their choice of sexual partners; similarly, about half are using condoms more or for the 1st time.

  3. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    creating an environment that increases women's vulnerability to epidemics. The article ..... to epidemics because rarely, if ever, does a single reason account for their vulnerability. ... life as a young woman. Contraception gave her freedom from.

  4. the south african hiv epidemic, reflected by nine provincial ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    the distribution and trend of the HIV epidemic in each of the ... The exponential model significantly explains the HIV epidemics in the .... such a curve is considered to be made up of three. October 199 ..... Ut: Quantitative Forecasting Methods.

  5. 49 CFR 173.161 - Chemical kits and first aid kits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Chemical kits and first aid kits. 173.161 Section... Class 7 § 173.161 Chemical kits and first aid kits. (a) Chemical kits and First aid kits must conform to... 10 kg. (b) Chemical kits and First aid kits are excepted from the specification packaging...

  6. Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delatorre, Edson; Bello, Gonzalo

    2013-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B(CU-I) and B(CU-II)), east Africa (clade C(CU-I)) and central Africa (clades G(CU), CRF18(CU) and CRF19(CU)), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985-1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

  7. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  8. CDC Vital Signs: Today's Heroin Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the MMWR Science Clips Today’s Heroin Epidemic More people at risk, multiple drugs abused Language: English (US) Español Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir On This Page Overview Problem Infographics What Can Be Done Issue Details Overview Heroin use has increased across the US among men and ...

  9. [A prognostic model of a cholera epidemic].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Prokop'eva, N V; San Román, R T; Raygoza-Anaya, M; García de Alba, R

    1994-01-01

    A new model for the prognostication of cholera epidemic on the territory of a large city is proposed. This model reflects the characteristic feature of contacting infection by sensitive individuals due to the preservation of Vibrio cholerae in their water habitat. The mathematical model of the epidemic quantitatively reflects the processes of the spread of infection by kinetic equations describing the interaction of the streams of infected persons, the causative agents and susceptible persons. The functions and parameters of the model are linked with the distribution of individuals according to the duration of the incubation period and infectious process, as well as the period of asymptomatic carrier state. The computer realization of the model by means of IBM PC/AT made it possible to study the cholera epidemic which took place in Mexico in 1833. The verified model of the cholera epidemic was used for the prognostication of the possible spread of this infection in Guadalajara, taking into account changes in the epidemiological situation and the size of the population, as well as improvements in sanitary and hygienic conditions, in the city.

  10. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  11. Alternative risk financing instruments for swine epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meuwissen, M.P.M.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

    2003-01-01

    Swine epidemics can have very large devastating financial consequences. Governments generally bear the direct losses, such as the value of destroyed animals. Consequential losses, such as the losses resulting from empty buildings and movement standstills, are completely borne by the farmers (and

  12. A Weighted Configuration Model and Inhomogeneous Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Britton, Tom; Deijfen, Maria; Liljeros, Fredrik

    2011-12-01

    A random graph model with prescribed degree distribution and degree dependent edge weights is introduced. Each vertex is independently equipped with a random number of half-edges and each half-edge is assigned an integer valued weight according to a distribution that is allowed to depend on the degree of its vertex. Half-edges with the same weight are then paired randomly to create edges. An expression for the threshold for the appearance of a giant component in the resulting graph is derived using results on multi-type branching processes. The same technique also gives an expression for the basic reproduction number for an epidemic on the graph where the probability that a certain edge is used for transmission is a function of the edge weight (reflecting how closely `connected' the corresponding vertices are). It is demonstrated that, if vertices with large degree tend to have large (small) weights on their edges and if the transmission probability increases with the edge weight, then it is easier (harder) for the epidemic to take off compared to a randomized epidemic with the same degree and weight distribution. A recipe for calculating the probability of a large outbreak in the epidemic and the size of such an outbreak is also given. Finally, the model is fitted to three empirical weighted networks of importance for the spread of contagious diseases and it is shown that R 0 can be substantially over- or underestimated if the correlation between degree and weight is not taken into account.

  13. Epidemic spreading on preferred degree adaptive networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jolad, Shivakumar; Liu, Wenjia; Schmittmann, B; Zia, R K P

    2012-01-01

    We study the standard SIS model of epidemic spreading on networks where individuals have a fluctuating number of connections around a preferred degree κ. Using very simple rules for forming such preferred degree networks, we find some unusual statistical properties not found in familiar Erdös-Rényi or scale free networks. By letting κ depend on the fraction of infected individuals, we model the behavioral changes in response to how the extent of the epidemic is perceived. In our models, the behavioral adaptations can be either 'blind' or 'selective'--depending on whether a node adapts by cutting or adding links to randomly chosen partners or selectively, based on the state of the partner. For a frozen preferred network, we find that the infection threshold follows the heterogeneous mean field result λ(c)/μ = / and the phase diagram matches the predictions of the annealed adjacency matrix (AAM) approach. With 'blind' adaptations, although the epidemic threshold remains unchanged, the infection level is substantially affected, depending on the details of the adaptation. The 'selective' adaptive SIS models are most interesting. Both the threshold and the level of infection changes, controlled not only by how the adaptations are implemented but also how often the nodes cut/add links (compared to the time scales of the epidemic spreading). A simple mean field theory is presented for the selective adaptations which capture the qualitative and some of the quantitative features of the infection phase diagram.

  14. [Notes about other epidemics in Colonial Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laval, Enrique

    2015-10-01

    In chronicles or in the historiography of the Colony in Chile there are few references about epidemics different to smallpox; like typhus, typhoid fever, dysentery, etc. Almost all, fast spreading in the country and some with high lethality, which led to overflowing the capacity of hospitals in the Chilean colonial period.

  15. Epidemic spreading through direct and indirect interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ganguly, Niloy; Krueger, Tyll; Mukherjee, Animesh; Saha, Sudipta

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic dynamics, considering a specialized setting where popular places (termed passive entities) are visited by agents (termed active entities). We consider two types of spreading dynamics: direct spreading, where the active entities infect each other while visiting the passive entities, and indirect spreading, where the passive entities act as carriers and the infection is spread via them. We investigate in particular the effect of selection strategy, i.e., the way passive entities are chosen, in the spread of epidemics. We introduce a mathematical framework to study the effect of an arbitrary selection strategy and derive formulas for prevalence, extinction probabilities, and epidemic thresholds for both indirect and direct spreading. We also obtain a very simple relationship between the extinction probability and the prevalence. We pay special attention to preferential selection and derive exact formulas. The analysis reveals that an increase in the diversity in the selection process lowers the epidemic thresholds. Comparing the direct and indirect spreading, we identify regions in the parameter space where the prevalence of the indirect spreading is higher than the direct one.

  16. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  17. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  18. Lessons for the control of AIDS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, T H

    1987-11-15

    A balanced perspective that places acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the context of the social needs of a global society is needed to overcome the hysteria and stigmatizing that presently surrounds this public health issue. The migration of poor, rural, sexually active young people to urban centers in the Third World has clearly played a role in the dissemination of AIDS and other infectious diseases. It is necessary, however, to examine the major cause of such population movement--private enterprise. Migrant workers are used to perform menial jobs in the urban labor force. Another cause of population movements is war and political repression. The fact that young people are becoming increasingly mobile has serious implications for the control of AIDS, and this phenomenon cannot be addressed without looking at its causes. Similarly, the disproportionate mortality of minorities- -seen in the AIDS epidemic as well--calls for discrimination. To prevent and control AIDS, the 1st step is to increase understanding of its natural history and epidemiology. Then, lessons must be learned from successful public health programs rooted in a primary health care system, including the Expanded Program on Immunization and oral rehydration campaigns. Although funds should not be diverted from such programs to combat AIDS, their logistic structure should be studied. Above all, however, it must be kept in mind that the constructive influence of health education will be thwarted as long as social inequities remain.

  19. HIV/AIDS and human development in sub-Saharan Africa : impact mitigation through agricultural interventions : an overview and annotated bibliography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Müller, T.R.

    2005-01-01

    This last part of the AWLAE series on HIV/AIDS and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa focuses on the epidemic as a challenge to human development in general and rural development in particular. In the face of the impact of the epidemic as described in parts one and two of the series, the agricultural

  20. AIDS in South Africa. Puppet power.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedman, G

    1992-01-01

    Blacks in South Africa see the government campaign promoting condom use to prevent AIDS as a political ruse to control population growth among Blacks. The City Health Department of Johannesburg does not use a government created poster targeted to Blacks because it implies that only Blacks have AIDS. Even though the number of AIDS cases in South Africa is lower (700 reported cases) than that of its neighbors, the number of HIV infected individuals is growing. So nongovernmental organizations are trying to overcome the division between the government and Blacks by finding alternative ways to stem the AIDS epidemic. The African Research and Educational Puppetry Programme uses Puppets Against AIDS to bridge racial, cultural, language, and educational barriers to thus educate Blacks about AIDS. It not only hopes to create and perform educational and socially valuable theater, but also to rediscover performing arts traditions in southern and central Africa. Since about 76% of the black population in rural South Africa is illiterate, the gray skinned puppets constitute an interactive and inoffensive way to communicate a serious message. Someone demonstrates how to put on a condom using a life size model which induces controversy among physicians and educated whites. Blacks in Johannesburg and surrounding townships are not offended, however. In fact, many have never seen condoms before the demonstration. The puppets emphasize that safe sex and having sex with only 1 partner can stop the spread of AIDS. Each performance also includes live African percussion and music. A narrator distributes free condoms and AIDS information brochures to the audience. Videotapes of each performance are used to evaluate audience reactions. Independent evaluation teams evaluate the impact of the performance. 1-4 day workshops on AIDS, puppet making, story development, and performing skills follow each performance.

  1. Economic cost and burden of dengue during epidemics and non-epidemic years in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dih-Ling Luh

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Background: Determining the disease and economic burden of dengue is critical for the allocation of public health resources. Several studies have used disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs to estimate the disease burden of dengue in different regions. However, there are no published studies discussing the estimates of dengue-related economic and disease burden specifically in Taiwan. Objectives: We assessed the economic cost and disease burden of dengue infections in Taiwan for the period 1998–2014, and compared these during epidemic and non-epidemic years. Methods: We estimated the annual DALYs per million population using the disability weights for dengue fever (DF, dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF, dengue shock syndrome (DSS, and death cases. Economic costs were estimated and divided into direct (medical costs and indirect costs (lost work days and caregiver fees. Results: For the period 1998–2014, a mean of 115.3 (range: 6.3–934.3 DALYs per million population annually were lost to dengue. In epidemic years, direct costs associated with dengue resulted mostly from hospitalization (86.09%, emergency (7.77%, outpatient (6.10%, and drug costs (0.03%. For indirect costs, lost productivity due to death (70.76% was the dominant contributor. Overall, the costs were 12.3 times higher in epidemic years than in non-epidemic years (Wilcoxon rank sum test, p < 0.05. Conclusions: This study is the first to evaluate the economic costs and disease burden of dengue infections for this period in Taiwan, and reveals significant differences in economic impact between epidemic and non-epidemic years. Keywords: Economic cost of disease, Disease burden, Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs, Dengue, Epidemic

  2. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  3. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  4. Integrated travel network model for studying epidemics: Interplay between journeys and epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Wang, Chaoqing; Ming Hui, Pak; Liu, Zonghua

    2015-06-01

    The ease of travelling between cities has contributed much to globalization. Yet, it poses a threat on epidemic outbreaks. It is of great importance for network science and health control to understand the impact of frequent journeys on epidemics. We stress that a new framework of modelling that takes a traveller’s viewpoint is needed. Such integrated travel network (ITN) model should incorporate the diversity among links as dictated by the distances between cities and different speeds of different modes of transportation, diversity among nodes as dictated by the population and the ease of travelling due to infrastructures and economic development of a city, and round-trip journeys to targeted destinations via the paths of shortest travel times typical of human journeys. An example is constructed for 116 cities in China with populations over one million that are connected by high-speed train services and highways. Epidemic spread on the constructed network is studied. It is revealed both numerically and theoretically that the traveling speed and frequency are important factors of epidemic spreading. Depending on the infection rate, increasing the traveling speed would result in either an enhanced or suppressed epidemic, while increasing the traveling frequency enhances the epidemic spreading.

  5. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  6. Retrospective Analysis of Lophodermium seditiosum Epidemics in Estonia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HANSO, MÄRT

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The needle trace method (NTM, created and developed by the Finnish forest pathologists prof. T. Kurkela, dr. R. Jalkanen and T. Aalto during the last decade of the XX century, has been already used by several researchers of different countries for retrospective analysis of needle diseases (Hypodermella sulcigena, by R. Jalkanen et al. in Finland or herbivorous insect pests of Scots pine (Diprion pini, by T. Kurkela et al. in Finland; Bupalus piniaria, by H. Armour et al. in Scotland, but as well of pests of Sitka spruce (Gilpinia hercyniae, by D.T. Williams et al. in England. Scots pine in forest nurseries and young plantations of Estonia is often but irregularly suffering from the epidemics of the needle cast fungus Lophodermium seditiosum. Current environmental regulations exclude from the regulatory (control measures all the others except of well-argued prophylactic systems, built up on reliable prognoses. The last is inconceivable without the availability of a reliable, as well, and long-lasting retrospective time-series of L. seditiosum epidemics, which, as it is known from the last half of the XX century, are occupying large forest areas, usually not least than a half of (the small Estonia. An appropriate time-series would be useful, as well, for the more basic understanding of the accelerated mortality processes during the stand formation in early pole-age Scots pine plantations. Methodological principles of the use of NTM in an appropriate investigation together with the preliminary results of our research work, looking back for more than a century, are introduced and discussed in this investigation.

  7. Nuclear medicine in the management of the aids patient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, E.L.; Sanger, J.J.

    1995-01-01

    For the medical diagnostic imaging specialist in general, and for the nuclear medicine physician specifically, the AIDS epidemic has generated an enormous demand to develop a means of making early diagnoses of the complications of AIDS. For the most part this has meant the early detection, and when possible, the characterization of the opportunistic infections and neoplasms that are a major source of morbidity and mortality for the AIDS patient. Detection of opportunistic infections has been helpful in reclassifying HIV-seropositive patients as having AIDS. This paper reports on nuclear medicine used to evaluate the efficacy and the complications of treatment in human immunodeficiency virus infection. Most recently, functional brain imaging has been used for the diagnosis and follow-up of the AIDS dementia complex. (author). 77 refs., 8 figs

  8. Nuclear medicine in the management of the AIDS patient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kramer, E.L.; Sanger, J.J.

    1990-01-01

    For the medical diagnostic imaging specialist in general, and for the nuclear medicine physician specifically, the AIDS epidemic has generated an enormous demand to develop a means of making early diagnoses of the complications of AIDS. For the most part this has meant the early detection, and when possible, the characterization of the opportunistic infections and neoplasms that are a major source of morbidity and mortality for the AIDS patient. Detection of opportunistic infections has been helpful in reclassifying HIV-seropositive patients as having AIDS. This paper reports on nuclear medicine used to evaluate the efficacy and the complications of treatment in human immunodeficiency virus infection. Most recently, functional brain imaging has been used for the diagnosis and follow-up of the AIDS dementia complex

  9. The emergence of HIV/AIDS in the Americas and beyond

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gilbert, M Thomas P; Rambaut, Andrew; Wlasiuk, Gabriela

    2007-01-01

    HIV-1 group M subtype B was the first HIV discovered and is the predominant variant of AIDS virus in most countries outside of sub-Saharan Africa. However, the circumstances of its origin and emergence remain unresolved. Here we propose a geographic sequence and time line for the origin of subtype...... B and the emergence of pandemic HIV/AIDS out of Africa. Using HIV-1 gene sequences recovered from archival samples from some of the earliest known Haitian AIDS patients, we find that subtype B likely moved from Africa to Haiti in or around 1966 (1962-1970) and then spread there for some years before...... HIV/AIDS epidemic outside sub-Saharan Africa and the most genetically diverse subtype B epidemic, which might present challenges for HIV-1 vaccine design and testing. The emergence of the pandemic variant of subtype B was an important turning point in the history of AIDS, but its spread was likely...

  10. The poverty-HIV/AIDS nexus in Africa: a livelihood approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masanjala, Winford

    2007-03-01

    This paper reviews the nexus between poverty and HIV/AIDS in Africa using a sustainable livelihood framework. Much of the literature on HIV and AIDS has generated an almost universal consensus that the AIDS epidemic is having an immense impact on the economies of hard-hit countries, hurting not only individuals, families and firms, but also significantly slowing economic growth and worsening poverty. International evidence has concentrated on the pathways through which HIV/AIDS undermines livelihoods and raises vulnerability to future collapse of livelihoods. Yet, little attention has been paid to the role that social relations and livelihood strategies can play in bringing about risky social interaction that raises the chance of contracting HIV. Using the sustainable livelihood and social relation approaches, this article demonstrates that although AIDS is not simply a disease of the poor, determinants of the epidemic go far beyond individual volition and that some dimensions of being poor increase risk and vulnerability to HIV.

  11. A social epidemiological study on HIV/AIDS in a village of Henan Province, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Jin; Xiao, Shuiyuan; Zhou, Liang; Tang, Yong; Xu, Guangming; Luo, Dan; Yi, Qifeng

    2013-01-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic caused by commercial blood donation in rural Henan Province of China in the early- to mid-1990s is the largest known cohort in the world related to blood donation but is not fully described. The objectives of this study were to describe the epidemic, epidemiology, and social epidemiology of commercial blood donation and HIV/AIDS. Both qualitative and quantitative mixed methods were used. A village was randomly selected from the 38 key HIV/AIDS pandemic villages in Henan Province. "Demographic Data Form" was applied to collect demographic information of each resident. Focus groups were held for the managers, some residents, members of "HIV/AIDS Work-Team" (organized by the Henan Provincial Government) in the village. Every village physician, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), school header, and other stakeholders were interviewed individually. The social epidemiology of HIV/AIDS was analyzed under three perspectives of the framework: individual, social, and structural perspectives. In this village, there were 2335 residents, 484 (20.3%) were former donors, 107 (4.6%) were PLWHA, and 96.3% of PLWHA were infected through commercial blood donation. Individually, low education and plasma donation were the risky factors of HIV/AIDS infection. Socially, the epidemic was geography-, kinship-, and conformity-related. Structurally, the related macrostructure factor was policy endorsement of national blood products. The microstructure factors were poverty and value belief on male child in passing down generations. It is concluded that commercial blood donation and HIV/AIDS epidemic in the village are symbiotically related. The epidemic is temporary and socially determined.

  12. Q&A: A Conversation With David France - The HIV/AID Plague Years and Where We Stand Now.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wehrwein, Peter

    2017-02-01

    Journalist David France's How to Survive A Plague is a searing firsthand account of the early years of the HIV/AIDS epidemic in New York City. AIDS activists, most of them gay men, were fighting for their lives. Researchers, politicians, public health officials, and pharma were slow to respond-or resisted outright.

  13. Out of the Closet and into the Trenches: Gay Male Baby Boomers, Aging, and HIV/AIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenfeld, Dana; Bartlam, Bernadette; Smith, Ruth D.

    2012-01-01

    Regardless of HIV status, all gay male Baby Boomers are aging in a context strongly shaped by HIV/AIDS. For this subcohort within the Baby Boom generation, the disproportionately high volume of AIDS deaths among gay men aged 25-44 years at the epidemic's peak (1987-1996) created a cohort effect, decimating their social networks and shaping their…

  14. Teaching Modules to Build HIV/AIDS Knowledge and Safer Sex Skills among African-American College Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanekar, Amar; Sharma, Manoj

    2011-01-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic has taken a tremendous toll on the population of the United States. College students, including African-Americans aged 13-24 years, across the nation are susceptible to contracting sexually transmitted diseases including HIV/AIDS as they participate in unsafe sex practices. The purpose of this article is to provide teaching…

  15. Etic and Emic Perspectives on HIV/AIDS Impacts on Rural Livelihoods and Agricultural Practice in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Niehof, A.; Price, L.L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an HIV/AIDS lens in looking at developments in rural livelihoods and agricultural practice reveals a diversity of critical impacts of the epidemic. Still, in most of the countries hardest-hit by HIV/ AIDS the agricultural sector lacks adequate policies and programmes to deal with the crisis.

  16. Aids-Related Cancers in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mbulaiteye, Sam M.

    2014-07-01

    Thank you Professor Zichichi for inviting me to give a talk about AIDS-related cancers in Africa. Let me begin by congratulating the team that organized the 46th Session of the Erice International Seminar Series, whose theme is THE ROLE OF SCIENCE IN THE THIRD MILLENIUM. I also congratulate the scientists from 38 countries who are attending these seminars. They are perpetuating the principle of SCIENCE WITHOUT SECRETS in the true spirit espoused by Archimedes, Galileo, and Fermi. It is a wonderful honor for me to be here to shed some light on the health impacts of the HIV epidemic in the area of cancer...

  17. [Environmental drivers of emergence and spreading of Vibrio epidemics in South America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavilán, Ronnie G; Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime

    2011-03-01

    Vibrio cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus are the two Vibrio species with a major impact on human health. Diseases caused by both pathogens are acquiring increasing relevance due to their expansion at global scale. In this paper, we resume the ecological aspects associated with the arrival and spreading of infections caused by V. parahaemolyticus and V. cholerae in Peru from a South American perspective. Moreover, we discuss the similarities in the emergence in Peru of cholera cases in 1991 and V. parahaemolyticus infections in 1997. These constituted exceptional experiments to evaluate the relationships between the Vibrio epidemics and changes in the environment. The epidemic radiations of V. cholerae and V. parahaemolyticus constitute to clear examples supporting the oceanic dispersion of pathogenic vibrios and have enabled the identification of El Niño events as a potential mechanism for the spreading of diseases through the ocean.

  18. 48 CFR 225.103 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... covered by the World Trade Organization Government Procurement Agreement, the Under Secretary of Defense...) In order not to impair integration of the military and commercial industrial base. (B) Except as...

  19. 7 CFR 1780.25 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... authority. The Administrator may, in individual cases, make an exception to any requirement or provision of this part which is not inconsistent with the authorizing statute or other applicable law and is...

  20. 7 CFR 1779.17 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Administrator may, in individual cases, make an exception to any requirement or provision of this part which is not inconsistent with the authorizing statute or other applicable law and is determined to be in the...

  1. 7 CFR 4279.15 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... authority. The Administrator may, in individual cases, grant an exception to any requirement or provision of this subpart which is not inconsistent with any applicable law provided, the Administrator determines...

  2. 7 CFR 1775.68 - Exception authority.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... authority. The Administrator may, in individual cases, make an exception to any requirement or provision of this part which is not inconsistent with the authorizing statute or other applicable law and is...

  3. 40 CFR 262.55 - Exception reports.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ...) STANDARDS APPLICABLE TO GENERATORS OF HAZARDOUS WASTE Exports of Hazardous Waste § 262.55 Exception reports... Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW., Washington, DC 20460, if any of the following occurs: ...

  4. 48 CFR 825.202 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Buy American Act-Construction Materials 825.202 Exceptions. (a) When a... HCA believes that the non-availability of an article is likely to affect future acquisitions, include...

  5. From Ethical Exceptionalism to Ethical Exceptions: The Rule and exception Model and the Changing Meaning of Ethics In German Bioregulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braun, Kathrin

    2017-12-01

    Germany is an interesting case with respect to the governance of reprogenetics. It has a strong profile in the technosciences and high aims regarding the global bioeconomy, yet her regulation of human genetics, reproductive medicine and embryo research has for a long time been rather restrictive. German biopolitical exceptionalism has often been explained by reference to Catholicism and the legacy of the Nazi past. The Germans, so goes the common story, have learnt the lessons of history and translated them into unconditional respect for human dignity, which in turn translates into unconditional protection of human life, including the human embryo, and the firm repudiation of any eugenic distinction between 'life worth to live' and 'life not worth to live'. This, however, is not the whole story. Alongside deontological strictness we find another strand of governing body politics and reprogenetics in Germany, the rule-and-exception model, running from the mid-1970s abortion law via the 2002 Stem Cell Act to the 2011 regulation of pre-implantation genetic diagnosis. In contrast to the former, that strongly draws on Kant and his concept of human dignity, the latter bears resemblances to Carl Schmitt's concept of state of exception. The article will show that the rule-and-exception model builds the exception into the rule and transforms the meaning and mandate of ethics, namely from safeguarding ethical standards to deciding about the exception. Given that the exception has now tended to become the rule, the question is whether the lessons of history will govern German reprogenetics for much longer. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Developing a surveillance system for HIV/AIDS in Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Emmanuel, F.; Bokhari, A.

    2006-01-01

    Apart from other interventions, surveillance remains a major focus of the national response to HIV/AIDS. However, with a shift in the epidemic pattern, the existing surveillance strategies are barely insufficient and long-term structural changes are desirable. This article provides a conceptual framework for developing a scientific system for HIV surveillance in Pakistan. Second generation surveillance system including repeated cross-sectional surveys in high risk population groups are suggested to collect behavioral and serological data at regular intervals on an annual basis to monitor the epidemic trend as well as the associated behaviors. In addition, multiple data resources have been highlighted, which could be coordinated to describe the epidemic pattern in the country. This information should form the basis for national prevention planning and ought to be used for making sensible choices through which prevention efforts are most likely to reduce new infections. (author)

  7. Adapting American Policymaking to Overcome American Exceptionalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-04-13

    discomfort at President Bush’s rallying good against evil speeches and the words of the NSS. The President’s us versus them foreign policies...of global leadership, and of concern for the well being of the global community. Classically, American exceptionalism refers to the uniquely free ...longer that force for good, but a force for its own good. Exceptionalism once meant a nation free from tyrannical rule and offering of bountiful

  8. 28 CFR 73.2 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exceptions. 73.2 Section 73.2 Judicial... GOVERNMENTS § 73.2 Exceptions. (a) The exemption provided in 18 U.S.C. 951(d)(4) for a “legal commercial...-89, 54 FR 46608, Nov. 6, 1989, as amended by Order No. 3018-2008, 73 FR 73182, Dec. 2, 2008] ...

  9. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-06-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks.

  10. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  11. Toward a generalized theory of epidemic awareness in social networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qingchu; Zhu, Wenfang

    We discuss the dynamics of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with local awareness in networks. Individual awareness to the infectious disease is characterized by a general function of epidemic information in its neighborhood. We build a high-accuracy approximate equation governing the spreading dynamics and derive an approximate epidemic threshold above which the epidemic spreads over the whole network. Our results extend the previous work and show that the epidemic threshold is dependent on the awareness function in terms of one infectious neighbor. Interestingly, when a pow-law awareness function is chosen, the epidemic threshold can emerge in infinite networks.

  12. Animal Bites: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Animal bites: First aid Animal bites: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff These guidelines can help you care for a minor animal bite, such ... 26, 2017 Original article: http://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-animal-bites/basics/ART-20056591 . Mayo ...

  13. Chest Pain: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Chest pain: First aid Chest pain: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff Causes of chest pain can vary from minor problems, such as indigestion ... 26, 2018 Original article: http://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-chest-pain/basics/ART-20056705 . Mayo ...

  14. Head Trauma: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Head trauma: First aid Head trauma: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff Most head trauma involves injuries that are minor and don't require ... 21, 2015 Original article: http://www.mayoclinic.org/first-aid/first-aid-head-trauma/basics/ART-20056626 . Mayo ...

  15. HIV/AIDS - resources

    Science.gov (United States)

    Resources - HIV/AIDS ... information on AIDS : AIDS.gov -- www.aids.gov AIDS Info -- aidsinfo.nih.gov The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation -- www.kff.org/hivaids US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention -- www.cdc.gov/hiv

  16. Ebola hemorrhagic fever outbreaks: strategies for effective epidemic management, containment and control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matua, Gerald Amandu; Van der Wal, Dirk Mostert; Locsin, Rozzano C

    2015-01-01

    Ebola hemorrhagic fever, caused by the highly virulent RNA virus of the filoviridae family, has become one of the world's most feared pathogens. The virus induces acute fever and death, often associated with hemorrhagic symptoms in up to 90% of infected patients. The known sub-types of the virus are Zaire, Sudan, Taï Forest, Bundibugyo and Reston Ebola viruses. In the past, outbreaks were limited to the East and Central African tropical belt with the exception of Ebola Reston outbreaks that occurred in animal facilities in the Philippines, USA and Italy. The on-going outbreak in West Africa that is causing numerous deaths and severe socio-economic challenges has resulted in widespread anxiety globally. This panic may be attributed to the intense media interest, the rapid spread of the virus to other countries like United States and Spain, and moreover, to the absence of an approved treatment or vaccine. Informed by this widespread fear and anxiety, we analyzed the commonly used strategies to manage and control Ebola outbreaks and proposed new approaches that could improve epidemic management and control during future outbreaks. We based our recommendations on epidemic management practices employed during recent outbreaks in East, Central and West Africa, and synthesis of peer-reviewed publications as well as published "field" information from individuals and organizations recently involved in the management of Ebola epidemics. The current epidemic management approaches are largely "reactive", with containment efforts aimed at halting spread of existing outbreaks. We recommend that for better outcomes, in addition to "reactive" interventions, "pre-emptive" strategies also need to be instituted. We conclude that emphasizing both "reactive" and "pre-emptive" strategies is more likely to lead to better epidemic preparedness and response at individual, community, institutional, and government levels, resulting in timely containment of future Ebola outbreaks. Copyright

  17. Gender differentiation in community responses to AIDS in rural Uganda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanyamurwa, J M; Ampek, G T

    2007-01-01

    AIDS has been reported in Africa to push households into poverty and chronic food insecurity. At the same time there are reports of significant household resilience to AIDS. This study explored how a mature epidemic in rural Uganda has affected rural farming households. It focused on gender differences in the experience of AIDS and, in particular, household capabilities to sustain livelihoods. The study compared the vulnerability of male- and female-headed households in relation to their ability to mitigate human resource losses, as well as their access to natural and physical resources, to social networks and to finance capital for production. The findings suggest that when rural households are affected by AIDS, depleting productive resources and directing resources towards immediate needs, there are gender differences in responses to, and in impacts of, the epidemic due to the different resources available to male- and female- headed households. Female-headed households were found to be more vulnerable to AIDS than male-headed counterparts. Women's remarriage opportunities were lower than men's, they faced greater risk of losing control over land and livestock and they accessed less state and private sector support. Women-headed households were more dependent on livelihood support from non-governmental organizations, which were found to provide both welfare and credit support to female-headed households affected by AIDS. Women were found to play an important role in social networks and resources at community level but themselves received little support from many formal community networks and services.

  18. Macroeconomic Issues in Foreign Aid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hjertholm, Peter; Laursen, Jytte; White, Howard

    foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,......foreign aid, macroeconomics of aid, gap models, aid fungibility, fiscal response models, foreign debt,...

  19. [AIDS research and prevention strategies in Thailand].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leisch, H

    1997-04-01

    The first case of AIDS was registered in Thailand in 1984; this syndrome was deemed to be mainly a disease affecting homosexuals and foreigners. However, soon thereafter its incidence among prostitutes and intravenous drug users increased. According to 1995 data, the number of AIDS patients was about 20,000 and there were approximately 800,000 HIV-positive people. A 1991 map of the AIDS incidence showed that, after the Bangkok metropolitan area, the province of Chiang Mai in the north exhibited a particularly high rate of infection. According to a medium-range forecast, by the year 2010 there will be close to 2.3 million cumulative HIV infection cases and 1.2 million AIDS cases in Thailand. This corresponds to an infection rate of about 3.2% vs. the present 2%. It is estimated that about 20% of all mortality in the age range of 20-48 years in the year 2000 will be caused by AIDS. In 1995, the prime minister predicted that AIDS would cause a 20% drop of the GDP by 2000. The boom of the economy in the 1980s and the early 1990s led to migration to the cities, where prostitution and drug use are rampant, as well as to the emergence of sex tourism, mainly from Germany (40,000-60,000 Germans traveled to Thailand in 1990). The age-old tradition among married men of seeking out the services of prostitutes, lack of condom use (only 20% of men intend to use it, according to recent studies), and disregard for the AIDS problem among the populace are other factors contributing to the rapid spread of AIDS. UNAIDS has undertaken sex education and other information campaigns to counter the epidemic.

  20. Epidemic Spreading with Heterogeneous Awareness on Human Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanling Lu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The spontaneous awareness behavioral responses of individuals have a significant impact on epidemic spreading. In this paper, a modified Susceptible-Alert-Infected-Susceptible (SAIS epidemic model with heterogeneous awareness is presented to study epidemic spreading in human networks and the impact of heterogeneous awareness on epidemic dynamics. In this model, when susceptible individuals receive awareness information about the presence of epidemic from their infected neighbor nodes, they will become alert individuals with heterogeneous awareness rate. Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations show that heterogeneous awareness can enhance the epidemic threshold with certain conditions and reduce the scale of virus outbreaks compared with no awareness. What is more, for the same awareness parameter, it also shows that heterogeneous awareness can slow effectively the spreading size and does not delay the arrival time of epidemic spreading peak compared with homogeneous awareness.

  1. AIDS Prevention for the Underserved Majority : the Choice Disabled ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Yet health resources are generally poorly optimized for prevention and almost without exception focused on ... various AIDS prevention interventions on the choice-disabled, with a special focus on victims of sexual violence. ... Journal articles.

  2. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holme, Petter

    2013-01-01

    In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  3. Epidemic extinction paths in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hindes, Jason; Schwartz, Ira B.

    2017-05-01

    We study the extinction of long-lived epidemics on finite complex networks induced by intrinsic noise. Applying analytical techniques to the stochastic susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we predict the distribution of large fluctuations, the most probable or optimal path through a network that leads to a disease-free state from an endemic state, and the average extinction time in general configurations. Our predictions agree with Monte Carlo simulations on several networks, including synthetic weighted and degree-distributed networks with degree correlations, and an empirical high school contact network. In addition, our approach quantifies characteristic scaling patterns for the optimal path and distribution of large fluctuations, both near and away from the epidemic threshold, in networks with heterogeneous eigenvector centrality and degree distributions.

  4. Spread of epidemic disease on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, M. E.

    2002-07-01

    The study of social networks, and in particular the spread of disease on networks, has attracted considerable recent attention in the physics community. In this paper, we show that a large class of standard epidemiological models, the so-called susceptible/infective/removed (SIR) models can be solved exactly on a wide variety of networks. In addition to the standard but unrealistic case of fixed infectiveness time and fixed and uncorrelated probability of transmission between all pairs of individuals, we solve cases in which times and probabilities are nonuniform and correlated. We also consider one simple case of an epidemic in a structured population, that of a sexually transmitted disease in a population divided into men and women. We confirm the correctness of our exact solutions with numerical simulations of SIR epidemics on networks.

  5. Ciguatera fish poisoning. A southern California epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, E D; Tanner, P; Turchen, S G; Tunget, C L; Manoguerra, A; Clark, R F

    1995-01-01

    Ciguatera fish poisoning results from the bioconcentration of a variety of toxins produced by marine dinoflagellates. Signs and symptoms vary widely, but it usually presents as gastrointestinal and neurologic complaints beginning shortly after the ingestion of fish containing the toxins. Symptoms may persist for months and sometimes even years. Although cases have been reported throughout the United States, epidemics are most common along tropical and subtropical coasts and usually involve the ingestion of large carnivorous fish. We review the literature and report the first epidemic of 25 cases of ciguatera fish poisoning presenting to area hospitals in Southern California that were successfully tracked by the Department of Health Services and isolated to fish caught off the coast of Baja California, Mexico. Images Figure 1. PMID:7667980

  6. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look into the litera......, focusing on trends in waist circumference rather than BMI leads to a less optimistic conclusion: the public health problem of obesity is still increasing.International Journal of Obesity advance online publication, 22 July 2014; doi:10.1038/ijo.2014.98....... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  7. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  8. Computational algebraic geometry of epidemic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez Vega, Martín.

    2014-06-01

    Computational Algebraic Geometry is applied to the analysis of various epidemic models for Schistosomiasis and Dengue, both, for the case without control measures and for the case where control measures are applied. The models were analyzed using the mathematical software Maple. Explicitly the analysis is performed using Groebner basis, Hilbert dimension and Hilbert polynomials. These computational tools are included automatically in Maple. Each of these models is represented by a system of ordinary differential equations, and for each model the basic reproductive number (R0) is calculated. The effects of the control measures are observed by the changes in the algebraic structure of R0, the changes in Groebner basis, the changes in Hilbert dimension, and the changes in Hilbert polynomials. It is hoped that the results obtained in this paper become of importance for designing control measures against the epidemic diseases described. For future researches it is proposed the use of algebraic epidemiology to analyze models for airborne and waterborne diseases.

  9. Extinction times of epidemic outbreaks in networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petter Holme

    Full Text Available In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal time to extinction. Furthermore, the transmission probability giving the longest outbreaks is larger than, but otherwise seemingly independent of, the epidemic threshold.

  10. Emergence of epidemics in rapidly varying networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kohar, Vivek; Sinha, Sudeshna

    2013-01-01

    We describe a simple model mimicking disease spreading on a network with dynamically varying connections, and investigate the dynamical consequences of switching links in the network. Our central observation is that the disease cycles get more synchronized, indicating the onset of epidemics, as the underlying network changes more rapidly. This behavior is found for periodically switched links, as well as links that switch randomly in time. We find that the influence of changing links is more pronounced in networks where the nodes have lower degree, and the disease cycle has a longer infective stage. Further, when the switching of links is periodic we observe finer dynamical features, such as beating patterns in the emergent oscillations and resonant enhancement of synchronization, arising from the interplay between the time-scales of the connectivity changes and that of the epidemic outbreaks

  11. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  12. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  13. The 1982 epidemic--roller skating injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bunker, T. D.

    1983-01-01

    A series of 100 roller skating injuries is presented. Roller skating injuries have been occurring at a higher rate than the previously reported skateboarding epidemic of 1977. The severity of injury has been lower, 32% fractures and dislocations occurring whilst roller skating, compared to 60% whilst skateboarding. In particular a striking reduction is seen in ankle fractures. Fifty questionnaires detailing method of injury were analysed. Images p205-a Fig. 1 Fig. 2 PMID:6652406

  14. Impact of the infectious period on epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilkinson, Robert R.; Sharkey, Kieran J.

    2018-05-01

    The duration of the infectious period is a crucial determinant of the ability of an infectious disease to spread. We consider an epidemic model that is network based and non-Markovian, containing classic Kermack-McKendrick, pairwise, message passing, and spatial models as special cases. For this model, we prove a monotonic relationship between the variability of the infectious period (with fixed mean) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. For certain families of distributions, this result implies that epidemic severity is decreasing with respect to the variance of the infectious period. The striking importance of this relationship is demonstrated numerically. We then prove, with a fixed basic reproductive ratio (R0), a monotonic relationship between the variability of the posterior transmission probability (which is a function of the infectious period) and the probability that the infection will reach any given subset of the population by any given time. Thus again, even when R0 is fixed, variability of the infectious period tends to dampen the epidemic. Numerical results illustrate this but indicate the relationship is weaker. We then show how our results apply to message passing, pairwise, and Kermack-McKendrick epidemic models, even when they are not exactly consistent with the stochastic dynamics. For Poissonian contact processes, and arbitrarily distributed infectious periods, we demonstrate how systems of delay differential equations and ordinary differential equations can provide upper and lower bounds, respectively, for the probability that any given individual has been infected by any given time.

  15. General theory of spontaneous emission near exceptional points.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pick, Adi; Zhen, Bo; Miller, Owen D; Hsu, Chia W; Hernandez, Felipe; Rodriguez, Alejandro W; Soljačić, Marin; Johnson, Steven G

    2017-05-29

    We present a general theory of spontaneous emission at exceptional points (EPs)-exotic degeneracies in non-Hermitian systems. Our theory extends beyond spontaneous emission to any light-matter interaction described by the local density of states (e.g., absorption, thermal emission, and nonlinear frequency conversion). Whereas traditional spontaneous-emission theories imply infinite enhancement factors at EPs, we derive finite bounds on the enhancement, proving maximum enhancement of 4 in passive systems with second-order EPs and significantly larger enhancements (exceeding 400×) in gain-aided and higher-order EP systems. In contrast to non-degenerate resonances, which are typically associated with Lorentzian emission curves in systems with low losses, EPs are associated with non-Lorentzian lineshapes, leading to enhancements that scale nonlinearly with the resonance quality factor. Our theory can be applied to dispersive media, with proper normalization of the resonant modes.

  16. Malaysia urges ASEAN to tackle AIDS crisis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2000-08-07

    Urgent action is needed to fight the alarming spread of HIV/AIDS that infected 1.3 million people in Southeast Asia last year alone, Malaysia's foreign minister said July 24, 2000. Syed Hamid said the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) should tackle at regional and national level an epidemic that was taking its most drastic toll among the region's youth. "HIV/AIDS not only represents a major public health and social problem but is a serious challenge to development as well," Syed Hamid told the opening ceremony of ASEAN's 33rd annual foreign ministers' meeting. The crisis requires commitment at the "highest political level," he said, warning that HIV/AIDS could become a transnational problem within the 10-member group. Foreign ministers have recommended their leaders discuss the crisis later this year at an informal summit in Singapore and hold a summit on HIV/AIDS in conjunction with the 7th ASEAN Summit in Brunei next year. "I think people recognized the importance and the adverse impacts on our social development," Syed Hamid told reporters later. "I think it is a real issue that we cannot run away from." Among ASEAN members, Thailand, Cambodia, and Myanmar have some of the highest infection rates in Asia of HIV, the virus that causes AIDS. full text

  17. [AIDS. In the West, nothing new].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fisch, A

    1989-07-12

    The June 1989 International Conference on AIDS in Montreal had a record attendance of 11,000 including several thousand journalists, representatives of pharmaceutical companies, sociologists, psychologists, and numerous AIDS patients primarily from the US. The opening session was postponed for several hours by demonstrators protesting the government response to AIDS. The initial plenary sessions failed to present information on scientific progress against AIDS but focused on topics such as tolerance, the faults of humanity, and the difficult life of homosexuals. The 6000 communications presented a pessimistic picture of the prospects for controlling the epidemic, especially in Africa. Several studies indicated that condom use is very limited in Africa and that no national policy has succeeded in reducing the rate of new infections. The few notes of hope concerned the improved management of AIDS cases in the industrialized countries, which have increased 18-month survival rates from 30% in 1982 to 60% in 1988. The difficulty and expense of treatments however mean that they are unlikely to be adopted in countries with limited health resources. Vaccines under development in France and the US show promise, but there is little hope of a cure in the near future. AZT is believed to improve the quality of survival time rather than the duration. Some new antivirals under study are too highly toxic for practical use.

  18. Dynamics of epidemics outbreaks in heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockmann, Dirk; Morales-Gallardo, Alejandro; Geisel, Theo

    2007-03-01

    The dynamics of epidemic outbreaks have been investigated in recent years within two alternative theoretical paradigms. The key parameter of mean field type of models such as the SIR model is the basic reproduction number R0, the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual. Recently, scale free network models have received much attention as they account for the high variability in the number of social contacts involved. These models predict an infinite basic reproduction number in some cases. We investigate the impact of heterogeneities of contact rates in a generic model for epidemic outbreaks. We present a system in which both the time periods of being infectious and the time periods between transmissions are Poissonian processes. The heterogeneities are introduced by means of strongly variable contact rates. In contrast to scale free network models we observe a finite basic reproduction number and, counterintuitively a smaller overall epidemic outbreak as compared to the homogeneous system. Our study thus reveals that heterogeneities in contact rates do not necessarily facilitate the spread to infectious disease but may well attenuate it.

  19. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Discrete stochastic analogs of Erlang epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Getz, Wayne M; Dougherty, Eric R

    2018-12-01

    Erlang differential equation models of epidemic processes provide more realistic disease-class transition dynamics from susceptible (S) to exposed (E) to infectious (I) and removed (R) categories than the ubiquitous SEIR model. The latter is itself is at one end of the spectrum of Erlang SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models with [Formula: see text] concatenated E compartments and [Formula: see text] concatenated I compartments. Discrete-time models, however, are computationally much simpler to simulate and fit to epidemic outbreak data than continuous-time differential equations, and are also much more readily extended to include demographic and other types of stochasticity. Here we formulate discrete-time deterministic analogs of the Erlang models, and their stochastic extension, based on a time-to-go distributional principle. Depending on which distributions are used (e.g. discretized Erlang, Gamma, Beta, or Uniform distributions), we demonstrate that our formulation represents both a discretization of Erlang epidemic models and generalizations thereof. We consider the challenges of fitting SE[Formula: see text]I[Formula: see text]R models and our discrete-time analog to data (the recent outbreak of Ebola in Liberia). We demonstrate that the latter performs much better than the former; although confining fits to strict SEIR formulations reduces the numerical challenges, but sacrifices best-fit likelihood scores by at least 7%.

  1. Epidemic risk from cholera introductions into Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sean M; Shannon, Kerry L; Zelaya, Carla E; Azman, Andrew S; Lessler, Justin

    2014-02-21

    Stemming from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, cholera transmission in Hispaniola continues with over 40,000 cases in 2013. The presence of an ongoing cholera outbreak in the region poses substantial risks to countries throughout the Americas, particularly in areas with poor infrastructure. Since September 9, 2013 nearly 200 cholera cases have been reported in Mexico, as a result of introductions from Hispaniola or Cuba. There appear to have been multiple introductions into Mexico resulting in outbreaks of 2 to over 150 people. Using publicly available data, we attempt to estimate the reproductive number (R) of cholera in Mexico, and thereby assess the potential of continued introductions to establish a sustained epidemic. We estimate R for cholera in Mexico to be between 0.8 to 1.1, depending on the number of introductions, with the confidence intervals for the most plausible estimates crossing 1. These results suggest that the efficiency of cholera transmission in some regions of Mexico is near that necessary for a large epidemic. Intensive surveillance, evaluation of water and sanitation infrastructure, and planning for rapid response are warranted steps to avoid potential large epidemics in the region.

  2. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  3. Cyanobacteria facilitate parasite epidemics in Daphnia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tellenbach, C; Tardent, N; Pomati, F; Keller, B; Hairston, N G; Wolinska, J; Spaak, P

    2016-12-01

    The seasonal dominance of cyanobacteria in the phytoplankton community of lake ecosystems can have severe implications for higher trophic levels. For herbivorous zooplankton such as Daphnia, cyanobacteria have poor nutritional value and some species can produce toxins affecting zooplankton survival and reproduction. Here we present another, hitherto largely unexplored aspect of cyanobacteria, namely that they can increase Daphnia susceptibility to parasites. In a 12-yr monthly time-series analysis of the Daphnia community in Greifensee (Switzerland), we observed that cyanobacteria density correlated significantly with the epidemics of a common gut parasite of Daphnia, Caullerya mesnili, regardless of what cyanobacteria species was present or whether it was colonial or filamentous. The temperature from the previous month also affected the occurrence of Caullerya epidemics, either directly or indirectly by the promotion of cyanobacterial growth. A laboratory experiment confirmed that cyanobacteria increase the susceptibility of Daphnia to Caullerya, and suggested a possible involvement of cyanotoxins or other chemical traits of cyanobacteria in this process. These findings expand our understanding of the consequences of toxic cyanobacterial blooms for lake ecosystems and might be relevant for epidemics experienced by other aquatic species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

  4. [Fight against epidemics: Austrian prisoners in Troyes].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hetzel, Géraldine

    2014-01-01

    The victories near Ulm and Elchingen, where the Napoleonic army took 60000 prisoners between 15th and 20th of October 1805, lead to the arrival at Troyes (county "Aube") of nearly 2000 Austrian soldiers to be held inside former monasteries among whose, mainly the Jacobinians casern where more than half of them stayed. At the beginning of 1806, the government sent the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Desgenettes on an inspection tour to control the state of health of the populations of places where foreign prisoners were held, which lead him through several counties of the North-eastern part of France, where he surveyed several diseases ranging from all kinds offevers up to dysentery, scabies or gangrenes. With the means of acid fumigations invented by the chemist Guyton Morveau from Dijon, the authorities took care of combating and preventing the epidemics in the caserns. As soon as October 1805, the epidemics medical practitioner Dr Pigeotte from Troyes wrote to the county governor his observations recommending a better diet, airing of the rooms and also calls to take some exercise. All these precepts showed an astonishing modernity.

  5. Impacts of clustering on interacting epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Bing; Cao, Lang; Suzuki, Hideyuki; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2012-07-07

    Since community structures in real networks play a major role for the epidemic spread, we therefore explore two interacting diseases spreading in networks with community structures. As a network model with community structures, we propose a random clique network model composed of different orders of cliques. We further assume that each disease spreads only through one type of cliques; this assumption corresponds to the issue that two diseases spread inside communities and outside them. Considering the relationship between the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model and the bond percolation theory, we apply this theory to clique random networks under the assumption that the occupation probability is clique-type dependent, which is consistent with the observation that infection rates inside a community and outside it are different, and obtain a number of statistical properties for this model. Two interacting diseases that compete the same hosts are also investigated, which leads to a natural generalization of analyzing an arbitrary number of infectious diseases. For two-disease dynamics, the clustering effect is hypersensitive to the cohesiveness and concentration of cliques; this illustrates the impacts of clustering and the composition of subgraphs in networks on epidemic behavior. The analysis of coexistence/bistability regions provides significant insight into the relationship between the network structure and the potential epidemic prevalence. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Invited review: Epidemics on social networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. N. Kuperman

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Since its first formulations almost a century ago, mathematical models fordisease spreading contributed to understand, evaluate and control the epidemic processes.They promoted a dramatic change in how epidemiologists thought of the propagation of infectious diseases.In the last decade, when the traditional epidemiological models seemed to be exhausted, new types of models were developed.These new models incorporated concepts from graph theory to describe and model the underlying social structure.Many of these works merely produced a more detailed extension of the previous results, but some otherstriggered a completely new paradigm in the mathematical study of epidemic processes. In this review, we will introduce the basicconcepts of epidemiology, epidemic modeling and networks, to finally provide a brief description of the mostrelevant results in the field.Received: 6 April 2013, Accepted: 3 June 2013; Edited by: G. Mindlin; DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4279/PIP.050003Cite as: M N Kuperman, Papers in Physics 5, 050003 (2013

  7. Epidemics in partially overlapped multiplex networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camila Buono

    Full Text Available Many real networks exhibit a layered structure in which links in each layer reflect the function of nodes on different environments. These multiple types of links are usually represented by a multiplex network in which each layer has a different topology. In real-world networks, however, not all nodes are present on every layer. To generate a more realistic scenario, we use a generalized multiplex network and assume that only a fraction [Formula: see text] of the nodes are shared by the layers. We develop a theoretical framework for a branching process to describe the spread of an epidemic on these partially overlapped multiplex networks. This allows us to obtain the fraction of infected individuals as a function of the effective probability that the disease will be transmitted [Formula: see text]. We also theoretically determine the dependence of the epidemic threshold on the fraction [Formula: see text] of shared nodes in a system composed of two layers. We find that in the limit of [Formula: see text] the threshold is dominated by the layer with the smaller isolated threshold. Although a system of two completely isolated networks is nearly indistinguishable from a system of two networks that share just a few nodes, we find that the presence of these few shared nodes causes the epidemic threshold of the isolated network with the lower propagating capacity to change discontinuously and to acquire the threshold of the other network.

  8. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  9. HIV/AIDS Coinfection

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Coinfection Hepatitis C Coinfection HIV/AIDS Coinfection HIV/AIDS Coinfection Approximately 10% of the HIV-infected population ... Control and Prevention website to learn about HIV/AIDS and Viral Hepatitis guidelines and resources. Home About ...

  10. Gastroenteritis: First Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid Gastroenteritis: First aid Gastroenteritis: First aid By Mayo Clinic Staff Gastroenteritis is an inflammation of your stomach and intestines. Common causes are: Viruses. Food or water contaminated by ...

  11. HIV and AIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Staying Safe Videos for Educators Search English Español HIV and AIDS KidsHealth / For Kids / HIV and AIDS ... actually the virus that causes the disease AIDS. HIV Hurts the Immune System People who are HIV ...

  12. Buying a Hearing Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... the aids? Start using your hearing aids in quiet surroundings, gradually building up to noisier environments. Then eventually work up to wearing your hearing aids all waking hours. Keep a diary to help you remember your ...

  13. Heart attack first aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    First aid - heart attack; First aid - cardiopulmonary arrest; First aid - cardiac arrest ... A heart attack occurs when the blood flow that carries oxygen to the heart is blocked. The heart muscle ...

  14. [The economic consequences of AIDS in Africa].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ilinigumugabo, A

    1996-12-01

    The economic and social consequences of the AIDS epidemic in Africa are enormous because of the prevalence of the disease and the age structure of patients. AIDS has caused a rise in early childhood and adult mortality, leading to a younger age distribution and a less favorable dependency ratio. All epidemiological studies have shown a strong seroprevalence in urban areas, and some show higher infection rates among the educated. The consequences of AIDS at the household level begin with the appearance of symptoms and often continue past the death of the patient. Expenditures for medical care, treatment of opportunistic infections, loss of income of the patient (who frequently is the main breadwinner), depletion of savings, funeral expenses, and care for others who may have become infected create an enormous burden for most households. Widows with no inheritance rights are left destitute with their children, who may be taken out of school to reduce expenses. UNICEF estimates that some 5.5 million children in East and Central Africa will be orphaned by AIDS by the year 2000. Many such children end up in the streets, prime targets for prostitution and HIV infection. The coping mechanisms of poor communities with high prevalence rates are soon overwhelmed by demands for assistance. Businesses are affected by health care costs, lessened productivity, and absenteeism. Costs of training increase for jobs requiring skilled workers. AIDS tends to reduce agricultural productivity, especially in areas with little rainfall and high seasonal manpower needs. Cash crops, which frequently depend on advanced technology, are more vulnerable than is subsistence agriculture. Agronomists may be hard to replace, and large unskilled migratory labor forces living apart from families may develop habits of promiscuity that allow HIV to spread rapidly. The few studies done on direct health costs of AIDS show that they vary tremendously depending on the country's level of development and

  15. Aid and AIDS: a delicate cocktail

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Dalen, H.P.; Reuser, M.

    2008-01-01

    Development assistance targeting health overwhelmingly concentrates on HIV/AIDS. This column argues that that focus neglects critical demographic issues and degrades health infrastructure, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. The prime rule for AIDS aid should be “First, do no harm”.

  16. Statistical tests to compare motif count exceptionalities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vandewalle Vincent

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Finding over- or under-represented motifs in biological sequences is now a common task in genomics. Thanks to p-value calculation for motif counts, exceptional motifs are identified and represent candidate functional motifs. The present work addresses the related question of comparing the exceptionality of one motif in two different sequences. Just comparing the motif count p-values in each sequence is indeed not sufficient to decide if this motif is significantly more exceptional in one sequence compared to the other one. A statistical test is required. Results We develop and analyze two statistical tests, an exact binomial one and an asymptotic likelihood ratio test, to decide whether the exceptionality of a given motif is equivalent or significantly different in two sequences of interest. For that purpose, motif occurrences are modeled by Poisson processes, with a special care for overlapping motifs. Both tests can take the sequence compositions into account. As an illustration, we compare the octamer exceptionalities in the Escherichia coli K-12 backbone versus variable strain-specific loops. Conclusion The exact binomial test is particularly adapted for small counts. For large counts, we advise to use the likelihood ratio test which is asymptotic but strongly correlated with the exact binomial test and very simple to use.

  17. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  18. Radiological characteristics of AIDS- related lymphoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramos, Gloria Maria Martins G.; Marchiori, Edson

    1996-01-01

    The epidemic of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased the incidence of lymphoma, particularly the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. The lymphoma in immune deficient patients is usually high-grade, very aggressive and with poor prognostic. We report the radiologic characteristics of AIDS-related lymphoma in 19 patients and correlate with the literature. The disease was predominant in homosexual male patients, with mean age of 38 years. The radiological characteristics are nonspecific to differential diagnosis, but we must suspect of lymphoma. We found ring-enhanced lesions in the radiologic studies of central nervous system. Hylar and mediastinal lymphadenopath, nodules and alveolar infiltration were detected on thoracic examinations. Abdominal examinations showed hepatosplenomegaly, lymphadenopathy, hepatic focal lesions and thickneded with distorted mucosa in the alimentary tract. Bone involvement presented as focal and disseminated destructive lesions. (author)

  19. Silencing women’s sexuality: global AIDS policies and the case of the female condom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Anny JTP; van Driel, Francien TM; Jansen, Willy HM

    2013-01-01

    Introduction The female condom is the only evidence-based AIDS prevention technology that has been designed for the female body; yet, most women do not have access to it. This is remarkable since women constitute the majority of all HIV-positive people living in sub-Saharan Africa, and gender inequality is seen as a driving force of the AIDS epidemic. In this study, we analyze how major actors in the AIDS prevention field frame the AIDS problem, in particular the female condom in comparison to other prevention technologies, in their discourse and policy formulations. Our aim is to gain insight into the discursive power mechanisms that underlie the thinking about AIDS prevention and women’s sexual agency. Methods We analyze the AIDS policies of 16 agencies that constitute the most influential actors in the global response to AIDS. Our study unravels the discursive power of these global AIDS policy actors, when promoting and making choices between AIDS prevention technologies. We conducted both a quantitative and qualitative analysis of how the global AIDS epidemic is being addressed by them, in framing the AIDS problem, labelling of different categories of people for targeting AIDS prevention programmes and in gender marking of AIDS prevention technologies. Results We found that global AIDS policy actors frame the AIDS problem predominantly in the context of gender and reproductive health, rather than that of sexuality and sexual rights. Men’s sexual agency is treated differently from women’s sexual agency. An example of such differentiation and of gender marking is shown by contrasting the framing and labelling of male circumcision as an intervention aimed at the prevention of HIV with that of the female condom. Conclusions The gender-stereotyped global AIDS policy discourse negates women’s agency in sexuality and their sexual rights. This could be an important factor in limiting the scale-up of female condom programmes and hampering universal access to

  20. Post-exceptionalism in public policy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daugbjerg, Carsten; Feindt, Peter H.

    2017-01-01

    Framing the special issue on the transformation of Food and Agricultural Policy, this article introduces the concept of post-exceptionalism in public policies. The analysis of change in agri-food policy serves as a generative example to conceptualize current transformations in sectoral policy...... arrangements in democratic welfare states. Often these arrangements have been characterized by an exceptionalist ideational framework that legitimizes a sector’s special treatment through compartmentalized, exclusive and producer-centered policies and politics. In times of internationalization of policy......-making, increasing interlinkage of policy areas and trends towards self-regulation, liberalization and performance-based policies, policy exceptionalism is under pressure to either transform or give way to (neo-)liberal policy arrangements. Post-exceptionalism denotes a partial transformation of exceptionalist ideas...

  1. Amendments to excepted benefits. Final rules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-10-01

    This document contains final regulations that amend the regulations regarding excepted benefits under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, the Internal Revenue Code (the Code), and the Public Health Service Act. Excepted benefits are generally exempt from the health reform requirements that were added to those laws by the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act. In addition, eligibility for excepted benefits does not preclude an individual from eligibility for a premium tax credit under section 36B of the Code if an individual chooses to enroll in coverage under a Qualified Health Plan through an Affordable Insurance Exchange. These regulations finalize some but not all of the proposed rules with minor modifications; additional guidance on limited wraparound coverage is forthcoming.

  2. An Ecological Community-Based Participatory Research Study of Late Diagnosed HIV/AIDS in Oakland, California: Investigating influential factors in racial/ ethnic health inequities

    OpenAIRE

    Chopel, Alison Marie

    2014-01-01

    Nationwide, there is a racial/ethnic disparity in incidence of HIV infection and AIDS mortality, with African Americans and Latinos having disproportionately higher rates of both HIV and AIDS than Whites and Asian/ Pacific Islanders. The racial disparity in late diagnosis of HIV/AIDS reflects that of timely –diagnosed HIV, suggesting that late diagnosis may be one important driver of the widening racial disparities seen in the AIDS epidemic. Late HIV diagnosis is defined as a diagnosis ...

  3. Session-based Choreography with Exceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carbone, Marco

    2009-01-01

    Choreography has recently emerged as a pragmatic and concise way of describing communication-based systems such as web services and financial protocols. Recent studies have investigated the transition from the design stage of a system to its implementation providing an automatic way of mapping...... a choreograhy into executable code. In this work, we focus on an extension of choreography with a communication-based (interactional) exception mechanism by giving its formal semantics. In particular, we discuss through some examples how interactional exceptions at choreography level can be implemented into end...

  4. A geometric formulation of exceptional field theory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bosque, Pascal du [Arnold Sommerfeld Center for Theoretical Physics,Department für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München,Theresienstraße 37, 80333 München (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut für Physik, Werner-Heisenberg-Institut, Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany); Hassler, Falk [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina, Phillips Hall, CB #3255, 120 E. Cameron Ave., Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); City University of New York, The Graduate Center, 365 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10016 (United States); Department of Physics, Columbia University, Pupin Hall, 550 West 120th St., New York, NY 10027 (United States); Lüst, Dieter [Arnold Sommerfeld Center for Theoretical Physics,Department für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München,Theresienstraße 37, 80333 München (Germany); Max-Planck-Institut für Physik, Werner-Heisenberg-Institut, Föhringer Ring 6, 80805 München (Germany); Malek, Emanuel [Arnold Sommerfeld Center for Theoretical Physics,Department für Physik, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München,Theresienstraße 37, 80333 München (Germany)

    2017-03-01

    We formulate the full bosonic SL(5) exceptional field theory in a coordinate-invariant manner. Thereby we interpret the 10-dimensional extended space as a manifold with SL(5)×ℝ{sup +}-structure. We show that the algebra of generalised diffeomorphisms closes subject to a set of closure constraints which are reminiscent of the quadratic and linear constraints of maximal seven-dimensional gauged supergravities, as well as the section condition. We construct an action for the full bosonic SL(5) exceptional field theory, even when the SL(5)×ℝ{sup +}-structure is not locally flat.

  5. Influence of Media on Seasonal Influenza Epidemic Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Satoshi; Saito, Norihiro; Itoga, Masamichi; Ozaki, Hiromi; Kimura, Toshiyuki; Okamura, Yuji; Murakami, Hiroshi; Kayaba, Hiroyuki

    2016-09-01

    Theoretical investigations predicting the epidemic curves of seasonal influenza have been demonstrated so far; however, there is little empirical research using ever accumulated epidemic curves. The effects of vaccine coverage and information distribution on influenza epidemics were evaluated. Four indices for epidemics (i.e., onset-peak duration, onset-end duration, ratio of the onset-peak duration to onset-end duration and steepness of epidemic curves) were defined, and the correlations between these indices and anti-flu drug prescription dose, vaccine coverage, the volume of media and search trend on influenza through internet were analyzed. Epidemiological data on seasonal influenza epidemics from 2002/2003 to 2013/2014 excluding 2009/2010 season were collected from National Institute of Infectious Diseases of Japan. The onset-peak duration and its ratio to onset-end duration correlated inversely with the volume of anti-flu drug prescription. Onset-peak duration correlated positively with media information volume on influenza. The steepness of the epidemic curve, and anti-flu drug prescription dose inversely correlated with the volume of media information. Pre-epidemic search trend and media volume on influenza correlated with the vaccine coverage in the season. Vaccine coverage had no strong effect on epidemic curve. Education through media has an effect on the epidemic curve of seasonal influenza. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  6. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  7. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  8. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  9. Trends in AIDS incidence and AIDS-related mortality in British Columbia between 1981 and 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Viviane D.; Lourenço, Lillian; Yip, Benita; Hogg, Robert S.; Phillips, Peter; Montaner, Julio S.G.

    2015-01-01

    Background Appropriate use of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) can markedly decrease the risk of progression to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and of premature mortality. We aimed to characterize the trends between 1981 and 2013 in AIDS-defining illnesses (ADIs) and in the number AIDS-related deaths in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Methods We included data of 3550 HIV-positive individuals, aged 19 years or older, from different administrative databases in BC. We estimated the relative risk of developing an ADI over time using a Negative Binomial model, and we investigated trends in the percentage of all deaths associated with AIDS using generalized additive models. Findings The number of ADIs has decreased dramatically to its lowest level in 2013. The peak of the AIDS epidemic in BC happened in 1994 with 696 ADIs being reported (rate 42 ADIs per 100 person-years). Since 1997, the number of ADIs decreased from 253 (rate 7 per 100 person-years) to 84 cases in 2013 (rate 1 per 100 person-years) (p-value equals to zero for the trend in the number of ADIs). We have also shown that out of 22 ADIs considered, only PCP maintained its prominent ranking (albeit with much reduced overall prevalence). Finally, we observed that over time very few deaths were related to AIDS-related causes, especially in the most recent years. Interpretation We showed that the number of new ADIs and AIDS-related mortality have been decreasing rapidly over time in BC. These results provide further evidence that integrated comprehensive free programs that facilitate testing, and deliver treatment and care to this population can be effective in markedly decreasing AIDS-related morbidity and mortality, thus suggesting that controlling and eventually ending AIDS is possible. Funding The British Columbia Ministry of Health, the US National Institutes of Health, the US National Institute on Drug Abuse, the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, and the Michael Institute for

  10. Women live longer than men even during severe famines and epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zarulli, Virginia; Barthold Jones, Julia A; Oksuzyan, Anna

    2018-01-01

    Women in almost all modern populations live longer than men. Research to date provides evidence for both biological and social factors influencing this gender gap. Conditions when both men and women experience extremely high levels of mortality risk are unexplored sources of information. We...... investigate the survival of both sexes in seven populations under extreme conditions from famines, epidemics, and slavery. Women survived better than men: In all populations, they had lower mortality across almost all ages, and, with the exception of one slave population, they lived longer on average than men...

  11. Characterizing the reproduction number of epidemics with early subexponential growth dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chowell, Gerardo; Viboud, Cécile; Simonsen, Lone

    2016-01-01

    in the first few disease generations, before susceptible depletion sets in. In reality, outbreaks can display subexponential (i.e. polynomial) growth in the first few disease generations, owing to clustering in contact patterns, spatial effects, inhomogeneous mixing, reactive behaviour changes or other...... and simulations from mechanistic models, and provide validation against a range of empirical disease datasets. Our results suggest that subexponential growth in the early phase of an epidemic is the rule rather the exception. Mechanistic simulations show that slight modifications to the classical susceptible...

  12. 29 CFR 1921.14 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... Relating to Labor (Continued) OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF LABOR (CONTINUED) RULES OF PRACTICE IN ENFORCEMENT PROCEEDINGS UNDER SECTION 41 OF THE LONGSHOREMEN'S AND HARBOR WORKERS' COMPENSATION ACT Decision and Order § 1921.14 Exceptions. Within 20 days after the date of the decision of the...

  13. A Priceless Playground for Exceptional Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adkins, Patricia G.

    Described are 20 pieces of therapeutic playground equipment constructed by volunteers and fathers of children in the Early Learning Center for Exceptional Children (El Paso, Texas). It is noted that discarded and readily available materials (such as old tires) were used, and that no commercial playground equipment was purchased. Information on the…

  14. 15 CFR 1180.7 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... Commerce and Foreign Trade Regulations Relating to Commerce and Foreign Trade (Continued) TECHNOLOGY... INFORMATION TO THE NATIONAL TECHNICAL INFORMATION SERVICE § 1180.7 Exceptions. (a) An agency shall not be...) The product is an agency generated article that is published in a privately produced journal; or (5...

  15. Exceptional polynomials and SUSY quantum mechanics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. We show that for the quantum mechanical problem which admit classical Laguerre/. Jacobi polynomials as solutions for the Schrödinger equations (SE), will also admit exceptional. Laguerre/Jacobi polynomials as solutions having the same eigenvalues but with the ground state missing after a modification of the ...

  16. 48 CFR 725.403 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... Section 725.403 Federal Acquisition Regulations System AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOCIOECONOMIC PROGRAMS FOREIGN ACQUISITION Trade Agreements 725.403 Exceptions. FAR 25.4 establishes procedures for purchases under the Trade Agreements Act of 1979 (including GATT's Agreement on Government Procurement) and...

  17. 26 CFR 1.306-2 - Exception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... is the avoidance of Federal income tax. [T.D. 6500, 25 FR 11607, Nov. 26, 1960, as amended by T.D... Revenue INTERNAL REVENUE SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Effects on Recipients § 1.306-2 Exception. (a) If a shareholder terminates his entire stock...

  18. 48 CFR 825.103 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... article is likely to affect future acquisitions, include a recommendation that a copy of the determination... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exceptions. 825.103 Section 825.103 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEPARTMENT OF VETERANS AFFAIRS SOCIOECONOMIC...

  19. 48 CFR 225.7003-3 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Exceptions. 225.7003-3 Section 225.7003-3 Federal Acquisition Regulations System DEFENSE ACQUISITION REGULATIONS SYSTEM... the recommendation of the Strategic Materials Protection Board pursuant to 10 U.S.C. 187, determines...

  20. Working with Navajo Parents of Exceptional Children.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Doris; And Others

    Undergraduate students at Northern Arizona University interviewed and surveyed 20 staff members at Kayenta Unified School District (KUSD) on the Navajo Reservation and 14 parents of exceptional Navajo children enrolled in KUSD. Both groups were asked to identify challenges affecting the working relationship between parents and school on a rural…

  1. 31 CFR 211.3 - Exceptions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Exceptions. 211.3 Section 211.3 Money and Finance: Treasury Regulations Relating to Money and Finance (Continued) FISCAL SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE DELIVERY OF CHECKS AND WARRANTS TO ADDRESSES OUTSIDE THE...

  2. Voices from the Classroom: Exceptional Teachers Speak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maeroff, Gene I., Ed.

    The opinions and experiences reflected in this report are those of exceptional teachers chosen in a national competition, "Thanks to Teachers," sponsored by Apple Computer, Inc., the National Foundation for the Improvement of Education, the National Alliance of Business, and Group W Television. The report is divided into four sections: (1) the…

  3. Lifestyle factors of people with exceptional longevity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajpathak, Swapnil N; Liu, Yingheng; Ben-David, Orit; Reddy, Saritha; Atzmon, Gil; Crandall, Jill; Barzilai, Nir

    2011-08-01

    To assess lifestyle factors including physical activity, smoking, alcohol consumption, and dietary habits in men and women with exceptional longevity. Retrospective cohort study. A cohort of community-dwelling Ashkenazi Jewish individuals with exceptional longevity defined as survival and living independently at age 95 and older. Four hundred seventy-seven individuals (mean 97.3 ± 2.8, range 95-109; 74.6% women) and a subset of participants of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) I (n = 3,164) representing the same birth cohort as a comparison group. A trained interviewer administrated study questionnaires to collect information on lifestyle factors and collected data on anthropometry. People with exceptional longevity had similar mean body mass index (men, 25.4 ± 2.8 kg/m² vs 25.6 ± 4.0 kg/m² , P=.63; women, 25.0 ± 3.5 kg/m² vs 24.9 ± 5.4 kg/m² ; P = .90) and a similar proportion of daily alcohol consumption (men, 23.9 vs 22.4, P = .77; women, 12.1 vs 11.3, P = .80), of regular physical activity (men: 43.1 vs 57.2; P = .07; women: 47.0 vs 44.1, P = .76), and of a low-calorie diet (men: 20.8 vs 21.1, P=.32; women: 27.3 vs 27.1, P=.14) as the NHANES I population. People with exceptional longevity are not distinct in terms of lifestyle factors from the general population, suggesting that people with exceptional longevity may interact with environmental factors differently than others. This requires further investigation. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

  4. Dynamical Interplay between Awareness and Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-01

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  5. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  6. Disease spreading with epidemic alert on small-world networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Xiao-Pu

    2007-01-01

    Base on two-dimension small-world networks, a susceptible-infected model with epidemic alert is proposed in this Letter. In this model, if some parts of the network are alarmed as dangerous, a fraction of edges between the alarmed parts and others will be removed, and two cases of alerting rules that the degree and frequency of contacts kept unchanged are considered respectively. The numerical simulations show that the spreading velocity is reduced by the accurate and timely epidemic alert, and the more accurate and timely, the stronger the deceleration effect. This model indicates that to broadcast epidemic alert timely is helpful and necessary in the control of epidemic spreading, and in agreement with the general view of epidemic alert. This work is helpful to understand the effects of epidemic alert on disease spreading

  7. [Politicized sexualities: AIDS activism and sexual orientation in Portugal].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Ana Cristina

    2002-01-01

    This article analyzes how both the Portuguese state and civil society have addressed the AIDS issue, focusing on participation by the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transsexual community (LGBT) in the struggle against AIDS. The article begins by describing the situation of LGBT individuals in Portugal during the 1990s, when the Portuguese LGBT movement emerged and grew, and then characterizes the evolution of HIV/AIDS in Portugal, analyzing the relationship between civil society and sexuality in general and the situation of the epidemic in the country in particular, considering key facts, nongovernmental organizations, and state initiatives. Special attention is given to the role played by LGBT organizations in the struggle against HIV. Finally, the article reflects on the future of the struggle against both AIDS and discrimination in the 21st century, considering recent events in the country and the guidelines recommended by international policies.

  8. The genesis of the AIDS policy and AIDS Space in Brazil (1981-1989)

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Barros, Sandra Garrido; Vieira-da-Silva, Ligia Maria

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the genesis of the policy for controlling AIDS in Brazil. METHODS Socio-historical study (1981-1989), based on Bordieu’s genetic sociology, by document analysis, bibliographical review, and in-depth interviews. It consisted of a connection between the analysis of the paths of 33 agents involved in the creation of a social space focusing on AIDS-related issues and the historical possibility conditions of the drafting of a specific policy. RESULTS AIDS Space is a gathering point for the paths of agents from several social fields (medical, scientific, political, and bureaucratic fields). A specific space for relationships, which enabled the drafting of a policy for controlling the AIDS epidemic, but also a place where the authority to talk about the meaning of the disease, the methods to prevent and treat it was under dispute. The analysis showed how the various structures (democratic administrations in Sao Paulo and at the national level, with public health officers taking important positions) and the lack of a specific therapy contributed to social agents of different ranks and backgrounds to initially set prevention as a priority. CONCLUSIONS The rise of the sanitary movement, the organization of SUS, and the dominance of the medical field at the AIDS Space contributed to foster treatment as a part of the measures to control the epidemic. These conditions allowed drafting a policy based on the integrality of care, by linking prevention and treatment in the following decade, with important participation from state bureaucracy and researchers. PMID:27463255

  9. The genesis of the AIDS policy and AIDS Space in Brazil (1981-1989

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Garrido de Barros

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To analyze the genesis of the policy for controlling AIDS in Brazil. METHODS Socio-historical study (1981-1989, based on Bordieu’s genetic sociology, by document analysis, bibliographical review, and in-depth interviews. It consisted of a connection between the analysis of the paths of 33 agents involved in the creation of a social space focusing on AIDS-related issues and the historical possibility conditions of the drafting of a specific policy. RESULTS AIDS Space is a gathering point for the paths of agents from several social fields (medical, scientific, political, and bureaucratic fields. A specific space for relationships, which enabled the drafting of a policy for controlling the AIDS epidemic, but also a place where the authority to talk about the meaning of the disease, the methods to prevent and treat it was under dispute. The analysis showed how the various structures (democratic administrations in Sao Paulo and at the national level, with public health officers taking important positions and the lack of a specific therapy contributed to social agents of different ranks and backgrounds to initially set prevention as a priority. CONCLUSIONS The rise of the sanitary movement, the organization of SUS, and the dominance of the medical field at the AIDS Space contributed to foster treatment as a part of the measures to control the epidemic. These conditions allowed drafting a policy based on the integrality of care, by linking prevention and treatment in the following decade, with important participation from state bureaucracy and researchers.

  10. Global AIDS Reporting-2001 to 2015: Lessons for Monitoring the Sustainable Development Goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alfvén, T; Erkkola, T; Ghys, P D; Padayachy, J; Warner-Smith, M; Rugg, D; de Lay, P

    2017-07-01

    Since 2001 the UNAIDS Secretariat has retained the responsibility for monitoring progress towards global commitments on HIV/AIDS. Key critical characteristics of the reporting system were assessed for the reporting period from 2004 to 2014 and analyses were undertaken of response rates and core indicator performance. Country submission rates ranged from 102 (53%) Member States in 2004 to 186 (96%) in 2012. There was great variance in response rates for specific indicators, with the highest response rates for treatment-related indicators. The Global AIDS reporting system has improved substantially over time and has provided key trend data on responses to the HIV epidemic, serving as the global accountability mechanism and providing reference data on the global AIDS response. It will be critical that reporting systems continue to evolve to support the monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goals, in view of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat by 2030.

  11. The spatial resolution of epidemic peaks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harriet L Mills

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The emergence of novel respiratory pathogens can challenge the capacity of key health care resources, such as intensive care units, that are constrained to serve only specific geographical populations. An ability to predict the magnitude and timing of peak incidence at the scale of a single large population would help to accurately assess the value of interventions designed to reduce that peak. However, current disease-dynamic theory does not provide a clear understanding of the relationship between: epidemic trajectories at the scale of interest (e.g. city; population mobility; and higher resolution spatial effects (e.g. transmission within small neighbourhoods. Here, we used a spatially-explicit stochastic meta-population model of arbitrary spatial resolution to determine the effect of resolution on model-derived epidemic trajectories. We simulated an influenza-like pathogen spreading across theoretical and actual population densities and varied our assumptions about mobility using Latin-Hypercube sampling. Even though, by design, cumulative attack rates were the same for all resolutions and mobilities, peak incidences were different. Clear thresholds existed for all tested populations, such that models with resolutions lower than the threshold substantially overestimated population-wide peak incidence. The effect of resolution was most important in populations which were of lower density and lower mobility. With the expectation of accurate spatial incidence datasets in the near future, our objective was to provide a framework for how to use these data correctly in a spatial meta-population model. Our results suggest that there is a fundamental spatial resolution for any pathogen-population pair. If underlying interactions between pathogens and spatially heterogeneous populations are represented at this resolution or higher, accurate predictions of peak incidence for city-scale epidemics are feasible.

  12. The Master Hearing Aid

    Science.gov (United States)

    Curran, James R.

    2013-01-01

    As early as the 1930s the term Master Hearing Aid (MHA) described a device used in the fitting of hearing aids. In their original form, the MHA was a desktop system that allowed for simulated or actual adjustment of hearing aid components that resulted in a changed hearing aid response. Over the years the MHA saw many embodiments and contributed to a number of rationales for the fitting of hearing aids. During these same years, the MHA was viewed by many as an inappropriate means of demonstrating hearing aids; the audio quality of the desktop systems was often superior to the hearing aids themselves. These opinions and the evolution of the MHA have molded the modern perception of hearing aids and the techniques used in the fitting of hearing aids. This article reports on a history of the MHA and its influence on the fitting of hearing aids. PMID:23686682

  13. Epidemics on adaptive networks with geometric constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Leah; Schwartz, Ira

    2008-03-01

    When a population is faced with an epidemic outbreak, individuals may modify their social behavior to avoid exposure to the disease. Recent work has considered models in which the contact network is rewired dynamically so that susceptibles avoid contact with infectives. We consider extensions in which the rewiring is subject to constraints that preserve key properties of the social network structure. Constraining to a fixed degree distribution destroys previously observed bistable behavior. The most effective rewiring strategy is found to depend on the spreading rate.

  14. Generalized epidemic process on modular networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, Kihong; Baek, Yongjoo; Kim, Daniel; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2014-05-01

    Social reinforcement and modular structure are two salient features observed in the spreading of behavior through social contacts. In order to investigate the interplay between these two features, we study the generalized epidemic process on modular networks with equal-sized finite communities and adjustable modularity. Using the analytical approach originally applied to clique-based random networks, we show that the system exhibits a bond-percolation type continuous phase transition for weak social reinforcement, whereas a discontinuous phase transition occurs for sufficiently strong social reinforcement. Our findings are numerically verified using the finite-size scaling analysis and the crossings of the bimodality coefficient.

  15. CHEMICAL VERSUS SERUM TREATMENT OF EPIDEMIC MENINGITIS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flexner, S; Amoss, H L

    1916-05-01

    Claims of efficiency have been made at two widely separated periods for the chemical treatment of epidemic meningitis, in the first instance for lysol and in the second for protargol. The use of lysol was long since abandoned; the recommendation for protargol is based on a single series of cases, small in number. Because of the variable severity of epidemics of meningitis, small reliance can be placed on results of treatment limited in extent to small numbers of cases and to one locality. A more uniform and accurate measure of the value of a method of treatment is provided by animals infected experimentally with pathogenic cultures of meningococci. Young guinea pigs respond in a definite manner to intraperitoneal inoculation of virulent meningococci. Neither protargol nor lysol proved to have any curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. Monkeys respond in a characteristic manner to the inoculation of virulent cultures into the subarachnoid space. Protargol displayed no curative action on the experimental infection thus produced in these animals. On the contrary, both lysol and protargol exert antileukotactic and antiphagocytic effects, and are also potent protoplasmic poisons, and the leukocytes with which they come in contact are injured and made to degenerate. According to the extent to which these harmful properties are exerted, the chemicals promote the advance rather than restrain the progress of meningococcic infection. Recovery from meningococcic infection in man and animals is accomplished chiefly through the process of phagocytosis. The specific antiserum acts curatively by increasing the emigration of leukocytes, by promoting phagocytosis directly, and by agglutinating the meningococci, and also by neutralizing endotoxin. Any means which interfere with and reduce these essential processes retard or prevent recovery. Both lysol and protargol interfere with and diminish the emigration of leukocytes and the phagocytosis

  16. Two approaches to forecast Ebola synthetic epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Champredon, David; Li, Michael; Bolker, Benjamin M; Dushoff, Jonathan

    2018-03-01

    We use two modelling approaches to forecast synthetic Ebola epidemics in the context of the RAPIDD Ebola Forecasting Challenge. The first approach is a standard stochastic compartmental model that aims to forecast incidence, hospitalization and deaths among both the general population and health care workers. The second is a model based on the renewal equation with latent variables that forecasts incidence in the whole population only. We describe fitting and forecasting procedures for each model and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. We did not find that one model was consistently better in forecasting than the other. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  18. Hybrid epidemic spreading - from Internet worms to HIV infection

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, C.

    2015-01-01

    Epidemic phenomena are ubiquitous, ranging from infectious diseases, computer viruses, to information dissemination. Epidemics have traditionally been studied as a single spreading process, either in a fully mixed population or on a network. Many epidemics, however, are hybrid, employing more than one spreading mechanism. For example, the Internet worm Conficker spreads locally targeting neighbouring computers in local networks as well as globally by randomly probing any computer on the Inter...

  19. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  20. Optimal Control of Interdependent Epidemics in Complex Networks

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Juntao; Zhang, Rui; Zhu, Quanyan

    2017-01-01

    Optimal control of interdependent epidemics spreading over complex networks is a critical issue. We first establish a framework to capture the coupling between two epidemics, and then analyze the system's equilibrium states by categorizing them into three classes, and deriving their stability conditions. The designed control strategy globally optimizes the trade-off between the control cost and the severity of epidemics in the network. A gradient descent algorithm based on a fixed point itera...

  1. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  2. Abia State HIV epidemic and response: challenges and prospects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyeonoro, Ugochukwu Uchenna; Emelumadu, Obiageli Fidelia; Nwamoh, Uche Ngozi; Ukegbu, Andrew Ugwunna; Okafor, Godwin Oc

    2014-11-13

    Since the first seroprevalence survey in 1999, the HIV prevalence in Abia State has increased from 1.8% to 7.3% in 2010. The state is currently experiencing a generalized epidemic, with most transmission occurring through heterosexual low-risk sex. Drivers of the epidemic include low knowledge of HIV prevention, low risk perception, predominantly male factor-driven risky sexual behavior, and low condom use. This study reviewed the state HIV epidemic trend in relation to response, sought to identify the gaps between the epidemic and response, and recommended measures to strengthen the state response.

  3. Epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Yun; Ding Li; Huang Yun-Han; Guan Zhi-Hong

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on random surfer networks with infected avoidance (IA) strategy. In particular, we consider that susceptible individuals’ moving direction angles are affected by the current location information received from infected individuals through a directed information network. The model is mainly analyzed by discrete-time numerical simulations. The results indicate that the IA strategy can restrain epidemic spreading effectively. However, when long-distance jumps of individuals exist, the IA strategy’s effectiveness on restraining epidemic spreading is heavily reduced. Finally, it is found that the influence of the noises from information transferring process on epidemic spreading is indistinctive. (paper)

  4. Epidemic spreading in time-varying community networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Guangming; Wang, Xingyuan

    2014-06-01

    The spreading processes of many infectious diseases have comparable time scale as the network evolution. Here, we present a simple networks model with time-varying community structure, and investigate susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic spreading processes in this model. By both theoretic analysis and numerical simulations, we show that the efficiency of epidemic spreading in this model depends intensively on the mobility rate q of the individuals among communities. We also find that there exists a mobility rate threshold qc. The epidemic will survive when q > qc and die when q epidemic spreading in complex networks with community structure.

  5. Untangling the Interplay between Epidemic Spread and Transmission Network Dynamics.

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    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The epidemic spread of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and often has a considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in the spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and requires a detailed analysis of each epidemic with respect to its infectious agent and the corresponding routes of transmission. To facilitate this analysis, we introduce a mathematical framework which links epidemic patterns to the topology and dynamics of the underlying transmission network. The evolution, both in disease prevalence and transmission network topology, is derived from a closed set of partial differential equations for infections without allowing for recovery. The predictions are in excellent agreement with complementarily conducted agent-based simulations. The capacity of this new method is demonstrated in several case studies on HIV epidemics in synthetic populations: it allows us to monitor the evolution of contact behavior among healthy and infected individuals and the contributions of different disease stages to the spreading of the epidemic. This gives both direction to and a test bed for targeted intervention strategies for epidemic control. In conclusion, this mathematical framework provides a capable toolbox for the analysis of epidemics from first principles. This allows for fast, in silico modeling--and manipulation--of epidemics and is especially powerful if complemented with adequate empirical data for parameterization.

  6. Uganda: condoms provoke an AIDS storm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebere, R

    1991-03-01

    An advertisement in the Uganda weekly Topic printed in 1990 is the center of the controversy over whether promoting condom use to prevent AIDS is really promoting immorality and promiscuity. The ad states: "The bible may save your soul but this condom will save you life." Critics have called the ad blasphemy for showing a condom package alongside the Bible; claimed the condom fools people into thinking they are safe from AIDS; and blamed the practice of supplying condoms for the moral decadence that is destroying the country. In contrast the national AIDS Control Program (ACP) believes that supplying university students, who may be the group at highest risk, with condoms, is wise because they at lest know how to use them properly. A spokesman for the ACP said that the condom is one of the limited options that exist to fight the life-threatening epidemic. Present Museven changed his views to November 1990 from a policy of encouraging abstinence and monogamy, to promoting condoms. This change in government policy coincided with the report of 17,422 cases of AIDS, and the estimate that 1.3 million people in Uganda are infected with HIV.

  7. HIV/AIDS in eastern Europe: more than a sexual health crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lazarus, Jeff; Bollerup, Annemarie; Matic, Srdan

    2006-01-01

    HIV/AIDS is often described as a sexually transmitted disease. In the former USSR, however, the HIV/AIDS epidemic is being driven by injecting drug use among men. This article addresses several widely circulated assumptions about HIV in eastern Europe: that sexual contact is the primary mode of t...... with the greatest need, the Russian Federation and Ukraine, the demand for treatment is growing much faster than its availability....

  8. Geografia social da AIDS no Brasil The social geography of AIDS in Brazil

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    Francisco Inácio Bastos

    1995-02-01

    Full Text Available São divulgados os primeiros resultados da avaliação da dinâmica da epidemia da AIDS no Brasil através de técnicas de análise da distribuição espacial. São revisadas questões metodológicas, apontando as dificuldades de estabelecer regiões geográficas homogêneas no Brasil. Descrevem-se tendências recentes da dinâmica da epidemia da AIDS no Brasil - pauperização, interiorização e alteração na participação proporcional das categorias de exposição. Avalia-se a distribuição de casos de AIDS por Unidades da Federação (UFs, confeccionando-se mapas relativos à disseminação da epidemia no período 1987-1993 nas diversas UFs, estabelecendo-se os Centros Gravimétricos (CGs relativos a esses anos. A análise do posicionamento e deslocamento pluri-anual desses CGs indica a força atrativa do Estado de São Paulo como pólo de difusão da epidemia e uma expansão simultânea da epidemia em direção às fronteiras de ocupação. Essas tendências colocam dificuldades adicionais às atividades de prevenção ao acrescentarem novos segmentos populacionais e regiões geográficas ao quadro observado inicialmente nas principais regiões metropolitanas e segmentos mais afetados.The first of a series of papers concerning the evaluation of the dynamics of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil employing techniques of geographical analysis, is here presented. Results of research undertaken in the US (especially in New York City are compared with those of a recent investigation carried out in the city of S.Paulo, Brazil (Grangeiro, 1994. In both, geographical patterns of socio-demographic variables correlate with different patterns of the spread of the AIDS epidemic through the transmission groups. Recent trends of the AIDS epidemic in Brazil: the displacement toward medium sized cities and expansion frontiers, increasing report of AIDS cases among the poor and underprivileged, changes in the pattern of transmission with proportional

  9. Cognitive function in families with exceptional survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Barral, Sandra; Cosentino, Stephanie; Costa, Rosann

    2012-01-01

    members in the offspring generation demonstrate significantly better performance on multiple tasks requiring attention, working memory, and semantic processing when compared with individuals without a family history of exceptional survival, suggesting that cognitive performance may serve as an important......The authors investigated whether cognitive function may be used as an endophenotype for longevity by assessing the cognitive performance of a family-based cohort consisting of 1380 individuals from 283 families recruited for exceptional survival in field centers in Boston, New York, Pittsburgh......, and Denmark. Cognitive performance was assessed in the combined offspring of the Long Life Family Study (LLFS) probands and their LLFS siblings as compared with their spouses' cognitive performance. Our results indicate that the combined offspring of the LLFS probands and their siblings achieve significantly...

  10. Global Trade issues and Cultural Exception

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanessa MARSON

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Cultural exception has always been a key element in the French political and cultural field. It isbased on the principle that culture is not like any other merchandise because it goes beyond thecommercial. During the negotiations of the Uruguay Round (1986-1994 the United States offeredto liberalize cultural goods and services. Due to the sensitive nature of the cultural industries, theEuropean Union led by France refused to make an offer of liberalization on these fields. Afterheated debates between the United States and the European Union, cultural exception has finallybecome a global issue since 2005. On 20 October, the UNESCO convention on cultural diversitywas voted by 148 countries to two (The United States and Israel to legally and globally recognizethe specific nature of cultural goods and services in the liberalization process.

  11. Phenotypic and Genotypic Comparison of Epidemic and Non-Epidemic Strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa from Individuals with Cystic Fibrosis.

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    Jessica Duong

    Full Text Available Epidemic strains of Pseudomonas aeruginosa have been found worldwide among the cystic fibrosis (CF patient population. Using pulse-field gel electrophoresis, the Prairie Epidemic Strain (PES has recently been found in one-third of patients attending the Calgary Adult CF Clinic in Canada. Using multi-locus sequence typing, PES isolates from unrelated patients were found to consistently have ST192. Though most patients acquired PES prior to enrolling in the clinic, some patients were observed to experience strain replacement upon transitioning to the clinic whereby local non-epidemic P. aeruginosa isolates were displaced by PES. Here we genotypically and phenotypically compared PES to other P. aeruginosa epidemic strains (OES found around the world as well as local non-epidemic CF P. aeruginosa isolates in order to characterize PES. Since some epidemic strains are associated with worse clinical outcomes, we assessed the pathogenic potential of PES to determine if these isolates are virulent, shared properties with OES, and if its phenotypic properties may offer a competitive advantage in displacing local non-epidemic isolates during strain replacement. As such, we conducted a comparative analysis using fourteen phenotypic traits, including virulence factor production, biofilm formation, planktonic growth, mucoidy, and antibiotic susceptibility to characterize PES, OES, and local non-epidemic isolates. We observed that PES and OES could be differentiated from local non-epidemic isolates based on biofilm growth with PES isolates being more mucoid. Pairwise comparisons indicated that PES produced significantly higher levels of proteases and formed better biofilms than OES but were more susceptible to antibiotic treatment. Amongst five patients experiencing strain replacement, we found that super-infecting PES produced lower levels of proteases and elastases but were more resistant to antibiotics compared to the displaced non-epidemic isolates. This

  12. Exceptional Complex Chromosomal Rearrangements in Three Generations

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    Hannie Kartapradja

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available We report an exceptional complex chromosomal rearrangement (CCR found in three individuals in a family that involves 4 chromosomes with 5 breakpoints. The CCR was ascertained in a phenotypically abnormal newborn with additional chromosomal material on the short arm of chromosome 4. Maternal karyotyping indicated that the mother carried an apparently balanced CCR involving chromosomes 4, 6, 11, and 18. Maternal transmission of the derivative chromosome 4 resulted in partial trisomy for chromosomes 6q and 18q and a partial monosomy of chromosome 4p in the proband. Further family studies found that the maternal grandmother carried the same apparently balanced CCR as the proband’s mother, which was confirmed using the whole chromosome painting (WCP FISH. High resolution whole genome microarray analysis of DNA from the proband’s mother found no evidence for copy number imbalance in the vicinity of the CCR translocation breakpoints, or elsewhere in the genome, providing evidence that the mother’s and grandmother’s CCRs were balanced at a molecular level. This structural rearrangement can be categorized as an exceptional CCR due to its complexity and is a rare example of an exceptional CCR being transmitted in balanced and/or unbalanced form across three generations.

  13. Exceptional points in open quantum systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mueller, Markus; Rotter, Ingrid

    2008-01-01

    Open quantum systems are embedded in the continuum of scattering wavefunctions and are naturally described by non-Hermitian Hamilton operators. In the complex energy plane, exceptional points appear at which two (or more) eigenvalues of the Hamilton operator coalesce. Although they are a countable set of single points in the complex energy plane and therefore of measure zero, they determine decisively the dynamics of open quantum systems. A powerful method for the description of open quantum systems is the Feshbach projection operator formalism. It is used in the present paper as a basic tool for the study of exceptional points and of the role they play for the dynamics of open quantum systems. Among others, the topological structure of the exceptional points, the rigidity of the phases of the eigenfunctions in their vicinity, the enhancement of observable values due to the reduced phase rigidity and the appearance of phase transitions are considered. The results are compared with existing experimental data on microwave cavities. In the last section, some questions being still unsolved, are considered

  14. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

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    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  15. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ndeffo Mbah, Martial L; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2011-01-01

    Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection) while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment). For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  16. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  17. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  18. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  19. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

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    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  20. Modelling the dynamics of nonendemic epidemics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramani, A.; Grammaticos, B.; Satsuma, J.

    2009-01-01

    We present two models for an epidemic where the individuals are infective over a fixed period of time and which never becomes endemic i.e., no infective individuals remain after the epidemic has run its course. The first model is based on a delay-difference scheme. We show that, as a function of the delay (which corresponds to the period of infectiveness) the percentage of non-infected population varies over a wide range. We present also a variant of our model where the recovery rate follows a Poisson law and obtain a discrete version of the SIR model. We estimate the percentage of non-infected population in the two models, show that they lead to almost the same values and present an explanation of this fact. The second model is based on the assumption that the infection is spread by carriers. Under the hypothesis that the carriers are relatively long-lived, and that the number of the infected ones is a relatively small fraction of the total population of potential carriers, we show that the model reduces to the same version of the discrete SIR obtained by our first model.